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Background: There is an urgent need for more information about the climate change impact on health in order to strengthen the commitment to tackle climate change. However, few studies have quantified the health impact of climate change in Brazil and in the Latin America region. In this paper, we projected the impacts of temperature on cardiovascular (CVD) mortality according to two climate change scenarios and two regionalized climate model simulations in Brazilian cities. Methods: We estimated the temperature-CVD mortality relationship in 21 Brazilian cities, using distributed lag non-linear models in a two-stage time-series analysis. We combined the observed exposure-response functions with the daily temperature projected under two representative concentration pathways (RCP), RCP8.5 and RCP4.5, and two regionalized climate model simulations, Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5. Results: We observed a trend of reduction in mortality related to low temperatures and a trend of increase in mortality related to high temperatures, according to all the investigated models and scenarios. In most places, the increase in mortality related to high temperatures outweighed the reduction in mortality related to low temperatures, causing a net increase in the excess temperature-related mortality. These trends were steeper according to the higher emission scenario, RCP8.5, and to the Eta-HadGEM2-ES model. According to RCP8.5, our projections suggested that the temperature-related mortality fractions in 2090-99 compared to 2010-2019 would increase by 8.6% and 1.7%, under Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5, respectively. According to RCP4.5, these values would be 0.7% and -0.6%. Conclusions: For the same climate model, we observed a greater increase trend in temperature-CVD mortality according to RCP8.5, highlighting a greater health impact associated with the higher emission scenario. Our results may be useful to support public policies and strategies for mitigation of and adaptation to climate change, particularly in the health sector.

Silveira, IH; Cortes, TR; de Oliveira, BFA; Junger, WL

Projections of excess cardiovascular mortality related to temperature under different climate change scenarios and regionalized climate model simulations in Brazilian cities

Environmental Research

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2021.110995

Future climate change is predicted to lead to reduced winter chill accumulation in many temperate fruit-tree growing regions of the world. Reliable measures of chilling requirement (CR) are necessary for growers in mild winter production locations to determine phenotypic suitability of cultivars for profitable production under current and future climates. This study has produced a collection of CRs for apple (Malus domestica) in chill portions (CP), chill units (CU) and chill hours (CH) for the mild climatic region of Applethorpe, Queensland, Australia. Total seasonal chill accumulation (1 March to 31 August) for 2014 and 2015 in Applethorpe was 75 and 78 CP; 1341 and 1242 CU and; 899 and 882 CH, respectively. All cultivars met their CRs by 10 September (2014) and 2 September (2015). Cultivar CR was estimated using forced bud methods over two seasons. The range of CRs measured for each of the three chill models was 57 +/- 2.9 to 77 +/- 1.5 CP, 976 +/- 40.3 to 1307 +/- 86.6 CU and 662 +/- 44,5 to 908 +/- 23.3 CH. Regardless of chill model choice, the nine cultivars were ranked the same from lowest (`Cripps Red') to the highest requirement (Pup and Hi Early'). Analysis of historical climate data showed that the CRs of 'Cripps Pink' and 'Granny Smith' have been met in 56% and 58% of years respectively. By 2030, this was projected to fall to 2-25% of years for both varieties, and 0% of years by 2050 for 'Cripps Pink', and 0-2% by 2050 for 'Granny Smith'. The results emphasise the need for better understanding of bud progression through the phases of dormancy. In particular, well-defined methods for identifying the transition from endo- to ecodormancy, and improved capacity of chill models to capture the chill accumulation process are necessary to provide valuable CR information to temperate fruit industries for adaptation to climate change.

Parkes, H; Darbyshire, R; White, N

Chilling requirements of apple cultivars grown in mild Australian winter conditions

Scientia Horticulturae

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2019.108858

Heat-and cold-wave scenarios and temperature scenarios during the 21st century were obtained for Aragon (Spain), using, for the first time, nine Earth System Models (ESM) and two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 - belonging to the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Local climate heat-wave scenarios show an increase of its mean intensity close to 2 degrees C (reaching temperatures of up to 38.8 degrees C) and an average increase of the maximum intensity of 3.6 degrees C (temperature of up to 41.5 degrees C) with respect to a historic period (1971-2000) for the RCP8.5 scenario at the end of the century. The duration of heat waves will increase by 7 days at the end of the century (total average duration of 12 days). The future intensity and duration of cold-wave episodes will remain stable. Local climate change scenarios for daily maximum temperatures show a gradual increase throughout the 21st century. The greatest increases will occur during the summer at the end of the century, reaching values of up to 7 degrees C for the RCP 8.5 scenario. The minimum temperature increases show similar behaviours to the maximum temperatures, but with less marked increases (3 degrees C and 5.6 degrees C for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively in summer at the end of the century). The highest temperatures and the intensity of the heat waves will be especially intense in the Ebro Valley, the most populated area. In addition, the Pyrenees will suffer the longest heat waves, especially at the end of the century, and the greatest increases in maximum temperatures. The downscaling of the CMIP5 models, offers accurate scenarios-both spatially and temporally-of extreme temperatures and heat and cold waves, useful for decision-making for local adaptation to climate change but also as a reference for other European regions. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gaitán, E; Monjo, R; Pórtoles, J; Pino-Otín, MR

Projection of temperatures and heat and cold waves for Aragon (Spain) using a two-step statistical downscaling of CMIP5 model outputs

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.352

Common lands provide smallholder farmers in Africa with firewood, timber, and feed for livestock, and they are used to complement human diets through the collection of edible nontimber forest products (NTFPs). Farmers have developed coping mechanisms, which they deploy at times of climatic shocks. We aimed to analyze the importance of NTFPs in times of drought and to identify options that could increase the capacity to adapt to climate change. We used participatory techniques, livelihood analysis, observations, and measurements to quantify the use of NTFPs. Communities recognized NTFPs as a mechanism to cope with crop failure. We estimated that indigenous fruits contributed to approximately 20% of the energy intake of wealthier farmers and to approximately 40% of the energy intake of poor farmers in years of inadequate rainfall. Farmers needed to invest a considerable share of their time to collect wild fruits from deforested areas. They recognized that the effectiveness of NTFPs as an adaptation option had become threatened by severe deforestation and by illegal harvesting of fruits by urban traders. Farmers indicated the need to plan future land use to (1) intensify crop production, (2) cultivate trees for firewood, (3) keep orchards of indigenous fruit trees, and (4) improve the quality of grazing lands. Farmers were willing to cultivate trees and to organize communal conservation of indigenous fruits trees. Through participatory exercises, farmers elaborated maps, which were used during land use discussions. The process led to prioritization of pressing land use problems and identification of the support needed: fast-growing trees for firewood, inputs for crop production, knowledge on the cultivation of indigenous fruit trees, and clear regulations and compliance with rules for extraction of NTFPs. Important issues that remain to be addressed are best practices for regeneration and conservation, access rules and implementation, and the understanding and management of competing claims on the common lands. Well-managed communal resources can provide a strong tool to maintain and increase the rural communities' ability to cope with an increasingly variable climate.

Woittiez, LS; Rufino, MC; Giller, KE; Mapfumo, P

The Use of Woodland Products to Cope with Climate Variability in Communal Areas in Zimbabwe

Ecology And Society

https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-05705-180424

Using Pakistan and the Arctic as examples, this article examines security challenges arising from climate change. Pakistan is in crisis, and climate change, a transnational phenomenon perhaps better characterized as radical enviro-transformation, is an important reason. Its survival as a state may depend to great extent on how it responds to 2010's devastating floods. In the Arctic, the ice cap is melting faster than predicted, as temperatures there rise faster than in almost any other region. Unmanaged, a complex interplay of climate-related conditions, including large-scale ecomigration, may turn resource competition into resource conflict. Radical enviro-transformation has repeatedly overborne the resilience of societies. War is not an inevitable by-product of such transformation, but in the 21st Century climate-related instability, from resource scarcity and ecomigration, will likely create increasingly undesirable conditions of insecurity. Weak and failing states are one of today's greatest security challenges. The pace of radical enviro-transformation, unprecedented in human history, is accelerating, especially in the Arctic, where a new, open, rich, and accessible maritime environment is coming into being. The international community must work together to enhance security and stability, promote sustainability, and strengthen sovereignty. Radical enviro-transformation provides ample reason and plentiful opportunity for preventative, collaborative solutions focused broadly on adaptation to climate change, most particularly the effects of ecomigration. Nations must work together across the whole of government and with all instruments of national power to create conditions for human transformation-social, political, and economic-to occur stably and sustainably, so as to avoid or lessen the prospects for and consequences of conflict. Collaborative international solutions to environmental issues, i.e., solutions that mobilize and share technology and resources, will build nations and build peace. The military, through preventative engagement will play a more and more important role. Further research and analysis is needed to determine what changes in law and policy should be made to facilitate stable and secure ecomigration on an international scale, over a long timeline.

Parsons, RJ

Strengthening Sovereignty: Security and Sustainability in an Era of Climate Change

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su3091416

Blue carbon has made significant contributions to climate change adaptation and mitigation while assisting in achieving co-benefits such as aquaculture development and coastal restoration, winning international recognition. Climate change mitigation and co-benefits from blue carbon ecosystems are highlighted in the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. Its diverse nature has resulted in unprecedented collaboration across disciplines, with conservationists, academics, and politicians working together to achieve common goals such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, which need proper policy regulations, funding, and multi-prong and multi-dimensional strategies to deal with. An overview of blue carbon habitats such as seagrass beds, mangrove forests, and salt marshes, the critical role of blue carbon ecosystems in mitigating plastic/micro-plastic pollution, as well as the utilization of the above-mentioned blue carbon resources for biofuel production, are critically presented in this research. It also highlights the concerns about blue carbon habitats. Identifying and addressing these issues might help preserve and enhance the ocean's ability to store carbon and combat climate change and mitigate plastic/micro-plastic pollution. Checking out their role in carbon sequestration and how they act as the major carbon sinks of the world are integral parts of this study. In light of the global frameworks for blue carbon and the inclusion of microalgae in blue carbon, blue carbon ecosystems must be protected and restored as part of carbon stock conservation efforts and the mitigation of plastic/micro-plastic pollution. When compared to the ecosystem services offered by terrestrial ecosystems, the ecosystem services provided by coastal ecosystems, such as the sequestration of carbon, the production of biofuels, and the remediation of pollution, among other things, are enormous. The primary purpose of this research is to bring awareness to the extensive range of beneficial effects that can be traced back to ecosystems found in coastal environments.

Bandh, SA; Malla, FA; Qayoom, I; Mohi-Ud-Din, H; Butt, AK; Altaf, A; Wani, SA; Betts, R; Truong, TH; Pham, NDK; Cao, DN; Ahmed, SF

Importance of Blue Carbon in Mitigating Climate Change and Plastic/Microplastic Pollution and Promoting Circular Economy

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su15032682

In this paper, we used the Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) third-generation Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (GIMMS NDVI3g) dataset. Based on GIMMS NDVI3g data over the global coastal zone from 1982 to 2014, the spatial-temporal characteristics of vegetation coverage were analysed by plotting the spatial pattern and monthly calendar of NDVI; furthermore, historical trends and future evolutions of vegetation coverage change at the pixel scale were studied by performing the Mann-Kendall trend test and calculating the trend slope (beta) and Hurst index (H) of NDVI. The main findings are as follows: 1) Vegetation density exhibits dramatic differences in the global coastal zone. Specifically, desert belts mostly have perennial non-vegetation or low vegetation coverage, and tundra belts principally have moderate or high vegetation coverage; additionally, forest belts mainly have dense vegetation coverage. 2) In the global coastal zone, intra-annual variations in vegetation coverage show a 'boolean AND'-shaped curve with an obvious peak from June to September (maximum in July or August), while inter-annual variations show a fluctuating but generally slowly increasing trend over the entire study period; accordingly, variations in different subregions show significant differences. 3) At monthly, seasonal and annual scales, the overall vegetation coverage increases in the global coastal zone, while there are relatively few areas with decreasing vegetation coverage; furthermore, change trends of vegetation coverage in most areas will demonstrate relatively strong positive persistence in the future. 4) The increasing trend in high-latitude coastal tundra is extremely significant in the growing season because vegetation in the tundra belts is highly sensitive to climate change. 5) Areas with a decreasing trend of vegetation coverage exhibit spatial patterns of aggregation in the 'circum urban agglomeration' and 'nearby desert belt' regions, that is, the decreasing trend of vegetation coverage is relatively high in coastal urban agglomeration areas and desert belt peripheries. This paper is expected to provide knowledge to support vegetation conservation, ecosystem management, integrated coastal zone management and climate change adaptation in coastal areas.

Hou, W; Hou, XY

Spatial-temporal changes in vegetation coverage in the global coastal zone based on GIMMS NDVI3g data

International Journal Of Remote Sensing

https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2019.1657603

Grassroots innovations emerge as networks generating innovative solutions for climate change adaptation and mitigation. However, it is unclear if grassroots innovations can be successful in responding to climate change. Little evidence exists on replication, international comparisons are rare, and research tends to overlook discontinued responses in favour of successful ones. We take the Transition Movement as a case study of a rapidly spreading transnational grassroots network, and include both active and non-active local transition initiatives. We investigate the replication of grassroots innovations in different contexts with the aim to uncover general patterns of success and failure, and identify questions for future research. An online survey was carried out in 23 countries (N = 276). The data analysis entailed testing the effect of internal and contextual factors of success as drawn from the existing literature, and the identification of clusters of transition initiatives with similar internal and contextual factor configurations. Most transition initiatives consider themselves successful. Success is defined along the lines of social connectivity and empowerment, and external environmental impact. We find that less successful transition initiatives might underestimate the importance of contextual factors and material resources in influencing success. We also find that their diffusion is linked to the combination of local-global learning processes, and that there is an incubation period during which a transition initiative is consolidated. Transition initiatives seem capable of generalising organisational principles derived from unique local experiences that seem to be effective in other local contexts. However, the geographical locations matter with regard to where transition initiatives take root and the extent of their success, and 'place attachment' may have a role in the diffusion of successful initiatives. We suggest that longitudinal comparative studies can advance our understanding in this regard, as well as inform the changing nature of the definition of success at different stages of grassroots innovation development, and the dynamic nature of local and global linkages. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Feola, G; Nunes, R

Success and failure of grassroots innovations for addressing climate change: The case of the Transition Movement

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.11.011

There are divergent visions and practices of sustainable urban design in the context of contemporary processes of climate adaptation and infrastructural change. However, the key influences on what trajectory is adopted in different instances have yet to be explored in depth. This article highlights and explores an emerging connection between climate adaptation, sustainable urban design and regeneration or what is termed the 'green adaptation-regeneration nexus'. This is identified as an ambiguous phenomenon which could instantiate more integrated and collaborative models of planning or, alternatively, denote an intensified economic focus. The implications of the green adaptation-urban regeneration nexus are explored through two case studies of combined climate adaptation and regeneration projects in Sheffield and Copenhagen. The key finding is that both projects' institutional setting within pre-existing regeneration planning frameworks has been a key influence in both enabling and constraining community participation. The article's key contribution is to highlight the inadequacy of inherited and often flawed planning frameworks from the perspective of realizing innovative, socially and ecologically sustainable approaches to design in an increasingly important sector of urban planning and design practice.

Tubridy, D

The green adaptation-regeneration nexus: innovation or business-as-usual?

European Planning Studies

https://doi.org/10.1080/09654313.2020.1757625

National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) have been characterized by complex implementation and coordination gaps, related to uneven framings in domestic contexts. This study analyzes these framing processes in Brazil and Colombia by examining the translation of global prescriptions into tangible policy instruments. It combines a policy translation analytical framework with the processes of layering, drift, conversion, and replacement. It draws on semi-structured interviews with institutional actors and it examines (i) agenda-setting and elaboration of the NAPs, (ii) the different roles and interactions of sector-based actors in agriculture and land-use, and (iii) the distinct concepts of adaptation put forward and their subsequent policy outputs in relation to national institutional trajectories. In Brazil and Colombia, the initial ambition of mainstreaming climate adaptation into sector-based policies resulted in a divergent patchwork of policies, which is characterized by limited means, capacity and other resources dedicated to coordination and implementation. Key policy insights The study examines the processes through which international prescriptions influence concrete policy outcomes. The ambition of establishing new climate policies resulted in a patchwork of policies, characterized by low levels of coordination and limited means of implementation. In Brazil, adaptation goals were layered in with existing sector-based policies with some operational capacity, while in Colombia the national adoption of several adaptation goals has not translated into implementation. The article addresses the politics of policy transfer, knowledge interpretation, and policy change. It considers the possibility of actors interacting to reframe concepts according to their ideas and interests, while also aiming to assure stability. Climate policy requires efforts to alter policy priorities at the sector level, to create cross-sectoral balances, and strengthen the means of implementation, actions which intimately relate to power relations and institutional settings.

Milhorance, C; Howland, F; Sabourin, E; Le Coq, JF

Tackling the implementation gap of climate adaptation strategies: understanding policy translation in Brazil and Colombia

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2022.2085650

Purpose - Climate change impacts tend to coalesce with everyday vulnerability and affect different socioeconomic groups in different ways. In this regard, this study aims to contribute to studies that make gender critical to understanding the way that climate change is experienced. Socially constructed gender differences have a bearing on the extent of exposure to climatic shocks, leading to various patterns of vulnerability to these shocks. Design/methodology/approach - This study uses both qualitative and quantitative methodologies to collect data. Findings - The study finds that there is an inherent potential within the study area for equal opportunities for both men and women to address levels of vulnerability to climatic shocks and, by implication, potential to challenge patriarchal structures that tend to characterize these study areas. The contextualization of gender analysis remains elusive in the face of increasingly shifting gender roles that traditionally defined women as victims to everyday vulnerability and more recently in conjunction with climatic shocks. Originality/value - In this regard, this research contributes to emerging perspectives on the potential role of 'woman as heroine' and challenges the perception of 'woman as victim' in environmental management. Considerations for mainstreaming adaptation responses to climate change do not necessarily have to consider women as a special social group in isolation but, rather, implications for both men and women and caution that embeddedness remains key for gender considerations in any rural context.

Mubaya, CP; Mafongoya, PL; Obert, J

Contextualizing gender in climate change adaptation in semi-arid Zimbabwe

International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-07-2016-0095

Federal procurement has an important role to play in mitigating and adapting to climate change. The massive scale of the government's purchasing power-more than $600 billion in Fiscal Year 2022-puts the federal government in a unique position to mitigate anthropogenic climate change by purchasing and creating markets for products and services with lower green-house gas emissions. The Biden Administration has recognized the potential climate impact of federal procurement, but policy direction alone will fail to curb anthropogenic contributions to rising global temperatures without specific and mandatory implementation schemes.To ensure prioritization of low emissions solutions, the government must overcome the temptations of low up-front purchase prices and internalize the less obvious costs associated with greenhouse gas emissions. Two methodologies have developed which, when combined, can do exactly that: (1) green-house gas accounting and (2) the social cost of greenhouse gases (SC-GHG). First, greenhouse gas accounting has developed for tracking and re-porting firms' greenhouse gas emissions, and it can be used by prospective offerors to estimate the total greenhouse gas emissions associated with theirgovernment contract proposals. Second, the SC-GHG metric quantifies the cost to society, in dollars, of one metric ton of greenhouse gas emissions. If prospective offerors use greenhouse gas accounting methodologies to estimate the emissions associated with their proposals, purchasing agencies can then apply the SC-GHG metric to those estimates to quantify-and therefore compare-the expected social cost of greenhouse gas emissions of each proposal.This Note advocates for wielding the federal government's purchasing power to mitigate climate change by accounting for the social cost of green-house gases at four key stages of the federal procurement process: (1) acquisition planning, (2) solicitation, (3) evaluation, and (4) quality assurance. To prevent potential burdens on low-value transactions with smaller potential impacts on climate change, this Note further suggests limiting mandatory incorporation of the social cost of greenhouse gases to high-value contracts above a specified dollar threshold.

Matsuda, E

Incorporating the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases into the Federal Procurement Lifecycle

George Washington Law Review

None

Chemistry has played a central role over the past century in the large-scale anthropogenic transformation of matter into diverse materials that have improved the quality of life for many people on our planet. The lens of chemistry is fundamentally necessary to understand the resulting flux of chemical substances in Earth system processes, the unintended consequences of those transformations, impacts on food supply security, water and energy concerns, ways to mediate and adapt to climate change, loss of biodiversity, and how best to build and maintain resilient ecosystems. Reactive nitrogen compounds (Nr) such as ammonia from the industrial fixation of atmospheric nitrogen exemplify both the central importance of chemistry in providing food and meeting basic human needs for a global population of 8 billion people and the sustainability challenges arising from the intended and unintended consequences of large-scale human production and release of Nr. The chemistry profession can use systems thinking (ST) tools and the Planetary Boundaries framework to understand and address challenges facing the entire Earth system resulting from the altered biogeochemical flows of nitrogen. This analysis has compelling priority due to the roles Nr currently plays in global food production and ammonia's potential role as an energy carrier for large-scale human activities in a future low carbon economy and as a domestic refrigerant while hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are being phased out. As this example illustrates, navigating the complex benefits and challenges large-scale human activity imposes on Earth system processes requires the convergence of chemistry research, industrial practice, and education. Since the chemical reactions and processes that transform matter are foundational to sustainability challenges, this perspective maps, through a chemistry for sustainability pyramid, 'multiple levels at which chemistry can contribute toward the emergence of sustainability of the Earth system'. We conclude with recommendations for steps the profession of chemistry can take to make education relevant and engaging and to connect chemistry research and practice to cross-disciplinary sustainability challenges, thereby transforming the science of transformation of matter toward sustainability.

Whalen, JM; Matlin, SA; Holme, TA; Stewart, JJ; Mahaffy, PG

A Systems Approach to Chemistry Is Required to Achieve Sustainable Transformation of Matter: The Case of Ammonia and Reactive Nitrogen

Acs Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering

https://doi.org/10.1021/acssuschemeng.2c03159

Achieving rice self-sufficiency in West Africa will require an expansion of the irrigated rice area under water scarce conditions. However, little is known about how much area can be irrigated and where and when water-saving practices could be used. The objective of this study was to assess potentially irrigable lands for irrigated rice cultivation under water-saving technology in Burkina Faso. A two-step, spatially explicit approach was developed and implemented. Firstly, machine learning models, namely Random Forest (RF) and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) were deployed in ecological niche modeling (ENM) approach to assess the land suitability for irrigated rice cultivation. Spatial datasets on topography, soil characteristics, climate parameters, land use, and water were used along with the current distribution of irrigated rice locations in Burkina Faso to drive ENMs. Secondly, the climatic suitability for alternate wetting and drying (AWD), an irrigation management method for saving water in rice cultivation in irrigated systems, was assessed by using a simple water balance model for the two main growing seasons (February to June and July to November) on a dekadal time scale. The evaluation metrics of the ENMs such as the area under the curve and percentage correctly classified showed values higher than 80% for both RF and MaxEnt. The top four predictors of land suitability for irrigated rice cultivation were exchangeable sodium percentage, exchangeable potassium, depth to the groundwater table, and distance to stream networks and rivers. Potentially suitable lands for rice cultivation in Burkina Faso were estimated at 21.1 x 10(5) ha. The whole dry season was found suitable for AWD implementation against 25-100% of the wet season. Soil percolation was the main driver of the variation in irrigated land suitability for AWD in the wet season. The integrated modeling and water balance assessment approach used in this study can be applied to other West African countries to guide investment in irrigated rice area expansion while adapting to climate change.

Akpoti, K; Dossou-Yovo, ER; Zwart, SJ; Kiepe, P

The potential for expansion of irrigated rice under alternate wetting and drying in Burkina Faso

Agricultural Water Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2021.106758

Flood risk increases with climate change and rapid urbanization, which urgently needs to improve the capacity of urban drainage systems. In the study, a staged optimization model considering climate change and hydrological model uncertainty (SOCU) was proposed for urban drainage system design. The SOCU model refers to the construction of drainage system by stages instead of traditional implement-once plans, which was established based on an integration of staged optimization policy, urban hydrological model, generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method and chance-constrained programming (CCP) model. The staged optimization policy was employed to deal with the uncertainty of climate change. The GLUE method was adopted to analyze the uncertainty of urban hydrological model established by PCSWMM. Considering the uncertainty from urban hydrological simulation, the CCP model (one of the main methods of stochastic mathematical programming) was used to deal with the uncertainty of the optimization model. Subsequently, a case study of the Haidian Island of Hainan Province in China was used to demonstrate the proposed model. The result shows that the optimal investment is 183 million Yuan with a pumping capacity of 28.3 m(3)/s for the first stage and 38.4 m(3)/s for the next stage. The SOCU model is not only more flexible to adapt to climate change, but also is economically efficient (10% lower than implement-once plans). The urban drainage system design obtained from the SOCU model is more reliable and robust than traditional implement-once plans since the climate change and hydrological model uncertainty are simultaneously taken into account. Furthermore, the investment increases from 166 million Yuan to 195 million Yuan when the flood constraint satisfaction probability increases from 0.75 to 0.95. Therefore, the model could provide richer decision-making information than traditional implement-once plans and help decision makers seek a trade-off between system investment and acceptable flood damage. The study outcomes provide a reliable optimization model for urban drainage design and may have profound implications and contributions for urban flood management.

Xu, HS; Ma, C; Xu, K; Lian, JJ; Long, Y

Staged optimization of urban drainage systems considering climate change and hydrological model uncertainty

Journal Of Hydrology

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124959

Large-scale farming (participation in large-scale agricultural extension program) and individual farming (no participation) are two farming management practices of rice cultivation in Thailand, both of which cause significant water consumption and degradation and are vulnerable to climate change. However, given that climate change will influence both grain yield and water resource availability, it is not fully understood which type of farming management practice is more adaptive to climate change. This study aims to evaluate the adaptation capabilities of large-scale and individual farming by simulating rice yield changes under future climatic conditions and estimating the climate change impact on the water footprint (WF) of rice production. Rice management practices were obtained from large-scale and individual farming. Five General Circulation Models of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios under four future time periods were used as future climate projections. Simulation results show a remarkable increase in rice yield of individual and large-scale farming under RCP4.5, ranging from 1.3 to 29.8% and 2.0 to 30.8%, respectively, whereas it fluctuates from 11.7 to -29.0% and 8.3 to -20.8% under RCP8.5 for individual and large-scale farming, respectively. The projected total WF of rice production under RCP4.5 will decline, ranging from -10.0 to -43.0% and -0.5 to -67.0% for individual and large-scale farming, respectively. Conversely, the RCP8.5 shows a fluctuation in projected total WF of -26.5 to 63.3% and -51.1 to 60.0% for individual and large-scale farming, respectively. The total WF, mainly grey WF, in large-scale farming is lower than in individual farming. The increase of rice yield under RCP4.5 is due to an increment of temperature and precipitation, resulting in a decrease of the total WF and vice versa for RCP8.5. The large-scale farms are highlighted as adopting appropriate management practices for rice production in which they can maintain rice yield and reduce grey WF. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Arunrat, N; Pumijumnong, N; Sereenonchai, S; Chareonwong, U; Wang, C

Assessment of climate change impact on rice yield and water footprint of large-scale and individual farming in Thailand

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137864

This article analyses the interactions between agricultural policy measures in the EU and the factors affecting GHG emissions from agriculture on the one hand, and the adaptation of agriculture to climate change on the other. To this end, the article uses Slovenia as a case study, assessing the extent to which Slovenian agricultural policy is responding to the challenges of climate change. All agricultural policy measures related to the 2007-2013 programming period were analysed according to a new methodological approach that is based on a qualitative (expert evaluation) and a quantitative (budgetary transfers validation) assessment. A panel of experts reached consensus on the key factors through which individual measures affect climate change, in which direction and how significantly. Data on budgetary funds for each measure were used as weights to assess their relative importance. The results show that there are not many measures in (Slovenian) agricultural policy that are directly aimed at reducing GHG emissions from agriculture or at adaptation to climate change. Nevertheless, most affect climate change, and their impact is far from negligible. Current measures have both positive and negative impacts, but overall the positive impacts prevail. Measures that involve many beneficiaries and more budgetary funds had the strongest impact on aggregate assessments. In light of climate change, agricultural policy should pay more attention to measures that are aimed at raising the efficiency of animal production, as it is the principal source of GHG emissions from agriculture.Policy relevanceAgricultural policy must respond to climate challenges and climate change impact assessment must be included in the process of forming European agricultural policy. Agricultural policy measures that contribute to the reduction of emissions and adaptation, whilst acting in synergy with other environmental, economic and social goals, should be promoted. The approach used in this study combines qualitative and quantitative data, yielding an objective assessment of the climate impact of agricultural policy measures and providing policy makers with a tool for either ex ante or ex post evaluations of climate-relevant policy measures.

Erjavec, E; Volk, T; Rednak, M; Rac, I; Zagorc, B; Moljk, B; Zgajnar, J

Interactions between European agricultural policy and climate change: a Slovenian case study

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2016.1222259

Knowledge networks are a recent innovation in global environmental governance. They provide a means for local and regional initiatives aimed at averting, mitigating, or adapting to climate change and other trans-boundary problems to join together in a system that: permits sharing of experiences, diffuses policy innovation across national borders, and spans divergent disciplinary boundaries so as to better communicate science to local decision-makers. We consider the role currently played by networks and the possibility that, over time, their soft power characteristics - a reliance on value change and policy emulation - may eventually place them in a position to globally coordinate local and regional environmental policy innovations. If successful, their efforts might supplant the need for national action to address climate change, even if they do not replace the nation-state system whose environmental management efforts will continue to rely on hard power: the use, primarily, of economic incentives to induce policy change. ICLEI provides technical consulting, training, and information services to build capacity, share knowledge, and support local government in the implementation of sustainable development at the local level. Our basic premise is that locally designed initiatives can provide an effective and cost-efficient way to achieve local, national, and global sustainability objectives. - International Council of Local Environmental Initiatives - website, 2010 When California passed its global warming law two years ago, we were out there on an island, so we started forming partnerships everywhere we could. We teamed up with Great Britain, the Canadian provinces, and the Western and Northeastern states and with states like those of my co hosts - Illinois, Florida, Kansas, Wisconsin and more. And right here, for the first time, we have officials from China, India, Mexico, Brazil, and Indonesia and across the world in the same summit, working toward the same goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and growing green economies in our own backyards. - Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Global Climate Summit. Los Angeles, California. November 18, 2008. (C) 2012 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Feldman, DL

The future of environmental networks-Governance and civil society in a global context

Futures

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2012.07.007

The key biophysical impacts associated with projected climate change in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) include: declines in pasture productivity, reduced forage quality, livestock heat stress, greater problems with some pests and weeds, more frequent droughts, more intense rainfall events, and greater risks of soil degradation. The most arid and least productive rangelands in the MDB region may be the most severely impacted by climate change, while the more productive eastern and northern grazing lands in the MDB may provide some opportunities for slight increases in production. In order to continue to thrive in the future, livestock industries need to anticipate these changes, prepare for uncertainty, and develop adaptation strategies now. While climate change will have direct effects on livestock, the dominant influences on grazing enterprises in the MDB will be through changes in plant growth and the timing, quantity and quality of forage availability. Climate change will involve a complex mix of responses to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, rising temperatures, changes in rainfall and other weather factors, and broader issues related to how people collectively and individually respond to these changes. Enhancing the ability of individuals to respond to a changing climate will occur through building adaptive capacity. We have, via secondary data, selected from the Australian Agricultural and Grazing Industries Survey, built a national composite index of generic adaptive capacity of rural households. This approach expresses adaptive capacity as an emergent property of the diverse forms of human, social, natural, physical and financial capital from which livelihoods are derived. Human capital was rated as 'high' across the majority of the MDB compared with the rest of Australia, while social, physical and financial capital were rated as 'moderate' to 'low'. The resultant measure of adaptive capacity, made up of the five capitals, was 'low' in the northern and central-west regions of the MDB and higher in the central and eastern parts possibly indicating a greater propensity to adapt to climate change in these regions.

Crimp, SJ; Stokes, CJ; Howden, SM; Moore, AD; Jacobs, B; Brown, PR; Ash, AJ; Kokic, P; Leith, P

Managing Murray-Darling Basin livestock systems in a variable and changing climate: challenges and opportunities

Rangeland Journal

https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ10039

Low floodplain wetlands such as the Western Everglades in South Florida are vulnerable to extreme weather events, and their water quality and ecosystem functions vary greatly depending on changes in water levels and discharges. The future (i.e., the mid and late 21st century) climate is projected to result in increased frequency and magnitude of extreme events, which could negatively affect the hydroecological function of the wetlands. Wetland management practices have commonly been implemented to protect wetlands and their functions, but it is not clear whether the current management practices can still be effective in projected climate change scenarios. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the runoff and total phosphorus (TP) of natural (L28 Gap) and managed (L28) wetland watersheds in the Western Everglades. For the assessment, we employed future climate projections made using 29 general circulation models (GCMs) and the Watershed Assessment Model (WAM), a watershed loading model. The WAM was calibrated and validated for the baseline period (2000-2014), and the bias-corrected climate projections were incorporated into the model to project the runoff discharge and TP loads for the near-future (2030-2044) and far-future (2070-2084) periods in two carbon emission scenarios. The modeling results show that the natural wetland watershed would be more vulnerable to projected climate change than the managed wetland watershed. The impact of projected climate change scenarios on daily runoff and TP loads was modulated by water control facilities and practices in the managed watershed, highlighting the significance of watershed management practices for improved water quality under projected climate change. This study demonstrates how the local natural and managed wetland watersheds distinctly respond to the global-scale changes and emphasizes the role of water management practices in wetland basins, which are expected to help develop effective climate change adaptation plans for improved sustainability of wetland systems.

Shin, S; Her, Y; Khare, Y

Evaluation of impacts of climate change on natural and managed wetland basins

Journal Of The American Water Resources Association

https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.13140

Conservation farming (CF) involving minimumtillage, mulching and crop rotation may offer climate change adaptation and mitigation benefits. However, reported effects of CF, as applied by smallholders, on storage of soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa differ considerably between studies. This is partly due to differences in management practice, soil type and adoption level between individual farmers. Where CF involves planting basins, year-to-year changes in position of basins make SOC stock estimates more uncertain. Here we assess the difference in SOC build-up and soil quality between inside planting basins (receiving inputs of lime and fertilizer; basins opened each year) and outside planting basins (no soil disturbance or inputs other than residues) under hand-hoe tilled CF in an Acrisol at Mkushi, Zambia. Seven years of strict CF husbandry significantly improved soil quality inside planting basins as compared with outside basins. Significant effects were found for SOC concentration (0.74 +/- 0.06% vs. 0.57 +/- 0.08%), SOC stock (20.1 +/- 2.0 vs. 16.4 +/- 2.6 t ha(-1), 0-20 cm), soil pH (6.3 +/- 0.2 vs. 4.95 +/- 0.4) and cation exchange capacity (3.8 +/- 0.7 vs. 1.6 +/- 0.4 cmol(c) kg(-1)). As planting basins only occupy 9.3% of the field, the absolute rate of increase in SOC, compared with outside basins, was 0.05 t C ha(-1) yr(-1). This corresponds to an overall relative increase of 2.95% SOC yr(-1) in the upper 20 cm of the soil. Also, hot water extractable carbon (HWEC), a proxy for labile organic matter, and potential nitrification rates were consistently greater inside than outside basins. The significant increase in quantity and quality of SOC may be due to increased inputs of roots, due to favorable conditions for plant growth through input of fertilizer and lime, along with increased rainwater infiltration in the basins. (c) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Martinsen, V; Munera-Echeverri, JL; Obia, A; Cornelissen, G; Mulder, J

Significant build-up of soil organic carbon under climate-smart conservation farming in Sub-Saharan Acrisols

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.452

Fragmented governance contexts make it difficult for public bodies to direct and control climate adaptation initiatives. This paper highlights how Newcastle City Council collaborated with local partners to create a shared understanding of how a major storm could affect public services across North East England. This helped the authority to develop a business case to invest in infrastructure that will help to protect future generations from severe weather events.

Eckersley, P; England, K; Ferry, L

Sustainable development in cities: collaborating to improve urban climate resilience and develop the business case for adaptation

Public Money & Management

https://doi.org/10.1080/09540962.2018.1477642

Problem, research strategy, and findings: Cities are increasingly experiencing the effects of climate change and taking steps to adapt to current and future natural hazard risks. Research on these efforts has identified numerous barriers to climate adaptation planning, but has not yet systematically evaluated the relative importance of different constraints for a large number of diverse cities. We draw on responses from 156 U.S. cities that participated in a 2011 global survey on local adaptation planning, 60% of which are planning for climate change. We use logistic regression analysis to assess the significance of 13 indicators measuring political leadership, fiscal and administrative resources, ability to obtain and communicate climate information, and state policies in predicting the status of adaptation planning. In keeping with the literature, we find that greater local elected officials' commitment, higher municipal expenditures per capita, and an awareness that the climate is already changing are associated with cities engaging in adaptation planning. The presence of state policies on climate adaptation is surprisingly not a statistically significant predictor, suggesting that current policies are not yet strong enough to increase local adaptation planning. However, the model's sampling bias toward larger and more environmentally progressive cities may mask the predictive power of state policies and other indicators.Takeaway for practice: State governments have an opportunity to increase local political commitment by integrating requirements for climate-risk evaluations into existing funding streams and investment plans. Regional planning entities also can help overcome the lack of local fiscal capacity and political support by facilitating the exchange of information, pooling and channeling resources, and providing technical assistance to local planners.

Shi, LD; Chu, E; Debats, J

Explaining Progress in Climate Adaptation Planning Across 156 US Municipalities

Journal Of The American Planning Association

https://doi.org/10.1080/01944363.2015.1074526

ObjectivesAlthough the internal nose is overwhelmingly responsible for heat and moisture exchange during respiration, external nasal morphology is more commonly cited as evincing climatic adaptation in humans. Here, we assess variation across all four morphofunctional units of the complete nasorespiratory tract (external pyramid, nasal aperture, internal nasal fossa, and nasopharynx) to determine which units provide the strongest evidence of climatic adaptation. Materials and MethodsWe employ 20 linear measurements collected on 837 modern human crania from major geographic (Arctic Circle, Asia, Australia, Europe, Africa) and climatic (polar, temperate, hot-arid, tropical) zones. In conjunction with associated climatic and geographic data, these morphological data are employed in multivariate analyses to evaluate the associations between each of these functional nasal units and climate. ResultsThe external pyramid and nasopharynx exhibit virtually no evidence of climate-mediated morphology across the regional samples, while apparent associations between climate and nasal aperture morphology appear influenced by the geographic (and likely genetic) proximities of certain populations. Only the internal nasal fossa exhibits an ecogeographic distribution consistent with climatic adaptation, with crania from colder and/or drier environments displaying internal nasal fossae that are longer, taller, and narrower (especially superiorly) compared to those from hotter and more humid environments. ConclusionsOur study indicates that the internal nasal fossa exhibits a stronger association with climate compared to other aspects of the human nose. Further, our study supports suggestions that regional variation in internal nasal fossa morphology reflects demands for heat and moisture exchange via adjustment of internal nasal airway dimensions. Our study thus provides empirical support for theoretical assertions related to nasorespiratory function, with important implications for understanding human nasal evolution.

Maddux, SD; Butaric, LN; Yokley, TR; Franciscus, RG

Ecogeographic variation across morphofunctional units of the human nose

American Journal Of Physical Anthropology

https://doi.org/10.1002/ajpa.23100

Northern communities are experiencing greater climate variability, with extreme climate impacts occurring more frequently and with more intensity; with the need for adaptation to reduce the risk becoming more immediate. Specific stressors and decision dynamics surrounding the nature of local government policy and planning for climate adaptation are underrepresented in the scholarship. This paper seeks to contribute to the literature by exploring the case of Homer, Alaska. Through narratives of key informants connected to the community's climate change agenda, this research explores primary climate stressors and the nature of adaptation policy integration. Findings suggests that while Homer is experiencing a variety of climate change impacts, adaptation remains a low priority for city officials. This study sheds light on some of the challenges of integrating climate adaptation policy with strategic community planning, and in turn provides decision-makers with insight into considerations for mainstreaming resilience thinking at a local government scale.

Birchall, SJ; Bonnett, N

Local-scale climate change stressors and policy response: the case of Homer, Alaska

Journal Of Environmental Planning And Management

https://doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2018.1537975

Climate change poses a major challenge for agricultural producers. There are a variety of adaptation strategies producers can use to enhance their resilience to the changing climate. The theory of planned behavior is applied as a framework to compare the adaptation intentions and choices of producers in Cariboo and Okanagan regions of the province of British Columbia (BC), Canada, and Baoji and Xi'an city prefectures of Shaanxi (SX) province, China. In BC, producers are more likely to explore the use of new crop varieties, and BC producers also seem to have a stronger intention to invest in irrigation efficiency. In contrast, producers in SX are far more likely to use online marketing methods to connect directly with consumers. Based on transcripts from a set of focus groups, community meetings, and interviews, differences in attitudes, social norms, and perceived behavioral control between SX and BC producers are identified that may contribute to their different adaptation choices. Multiple barriers to adaptation existed in both areas. Limited technical knowledge and doubts about adaptation effectiveness were more serious in BC, while limited support from local government and normative expectations were notable in SX. Education, targeted research, and public investments in irrigation and marketing may contribute to addressing some of these differences, improving the resilience of agricultural climate adaptation in both provinces.

Mu, L; Janmaat, J; Taylor, J; Arnold, L

Attitudes and opportunities: comparing climate change adaptation intentions and decisions of agricultural producers in Shaanxi, China, and British Columbia, Canada

Mitigation And Adaptation Strategies For Global Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-022-10040-7

Climate change threatens to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts and floods. There are large uncertainties related to unknowns around the future and society's responses to these threats. Uncertainty' as other words with the prefix un' (unknown, untold, unrest) often has negative connotations. Yet, uncertainty is manifested in virtually everything we do. To many in science, uncertainty is akin to error that should be minimised, a lack of knowledge that needs to be rectified. We argue that uncertainty rather should be embraced as a starting point for discussing pathways to climate adaptation. Here we follow a definition of pathways to adaptation' as representing a set of proactive changes in the present that move people from a climatically unsafe place, to positions of safety (self-defined as representing freedom from harm or adverse effect). This article applies an inter-discursive analytical approach where (un)certainty and (un)safety are used to deepen the understanding around the positions of people in Senegal, and their livelihoods, with respect to climate hazards. We examine the discursive socio-cultural values active in the climate adaptive space. Our findings show that people's adaptive decisions often were not based on climate information, but on discursive values and emotions that guided them in the direction of responses that felt right. We conclude that acknowledging different understandings and perceptions of uncertainty, and the goal of achieving safety, allows issues of power to be discussed. We contend that this process helps illuminate how to navigate pathways of adaptation to the impacts of climate variability and change.

Ayeb-Karlsson, S; Fox, G; Kniveton, D

Embracing uncertainty: A discursive approach to understanding pathways for climate adaptation in Senegal

Regional Environmental Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01495-7

Planned adaptations are commonly adopted by governments considering large-scale socio-economic and political interventions, while local communities innovate their adaptive responses using locally available resources - also known as autonomous adaptation. Congruence between planned and autonomous adaptation is needed to develop a concerted and effective effort to minimize the negative impacts of context-specific vulnerability. This paper offers a systematic framework for building congruence between planned and autonomous adaptation using a six-step approach to guide their integration while maintaining an environment for future autonomous innovations. We applied this framework to previously conducted case studies in Spain, Bangladesh and Canada, revealing key lessons for using autonomous adaptation as leverage points for sustainable climate adaptation.

Rahman, HMT; Albizua, A; Soubry, B; Tourangeau, W

A framework for using autonomous adaptation as a leverage point in sustainable climate adaptation

Climate Risk Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100376

Through climate adaptation planning cities are transforming places and relations, most recently via green climate resilient infrastructure (GRI). Yet, GRI's incorporation into existing, racialized infrastructure systems of urban development, regeneration and finance has raised questions about the socio-cultural impacts and justice dimensions of recent directions in climate adaptation planning and urbanism. While critical scholars highlight the exclusion of historically marginalized residents, this paper's analysis of the impacts of GRI-driven planning for sense of belonging reveals a complex and multi-faceted experience of gentrification and displacement in the racialized, settler colonial city. Drawing on insights from civic actors about their lived experience of green and climate resilient projects in Boston, Massachusetts, we develop a novel understanding of belonging, which entails degrees of (mis)belonging. Our analysis uncovers three pathways by which climate urbanism shapes belonging into various alienated, subordinated, assimilated and emancipated forms, and reveals the kinds of political subjects and socio-cultural relations that emerge from the lived experience of climate adaptation projects. More broadly, this study sheds light on how less visible placemaking practices and alternative modes of addressing socio-climate vulnerability contribute to climate justice and injustice dynamics.

Shokry, G; Anguelovski, I; Connolly, JJT

(Mis-)belonging to the climate-resilient city: Making place in multi-risk communities of racialized urban America

Journal Of Urban Affairs

https://doi.org/10.1080/07352166.2022.2160339

This paper presents a comparative analysis of catchment management dams in Cork, Ireland and Brisbane, Australia to demonstrate how interactions between municipal government and expert advisors for public infrastructure administration can constrain community climate adaptation. The analysis highlights how neoliberal economic rationalism can appropriate public value choice under the guise of technocratic expertise. Experts are often considered responsible agents for the effective administration of public infrastructure, even when ostensibly technical decisions concerning infrastructure management seem to demand normative, political input. Technocratic administration arising from economic rationalist priorities can thereby exacerbate the hazards presented by climate variability and advancing climate change. Climate risk managers in both cases over-relied on operating protocols and the expertise of engineers to administer public infrastructure in pursuit of economic priorities. When operating protocols proved insufficient in the face of climate extremes, however, blame was assigned to experts despite their making all available attempts to avert disaster. Through analysis of these cases, the paper discusses the need for normative transparency in expert-led public administration and better integration of multi-level governance for climate resilience when pursuing economic rationalist imperatives.

Tangney, P

Dammed if you do, dammed if you don't: The impact of economic rationalist imperatives on the adaptive capacity of public infrastructure in Brisbane, Australia and Cork, Ireland

Environmental Policy And Governance

https://doi.org/10.1002/eet.1893

Governments, businesses, and civil society organizations have diverse policy tools to incentivize adaptation. Policy tools can shape the type and extent of adaptation, and therefore, function either as barriers or enablers for reducing risk and vulnerability. Using data from a systematic review of academic literature on global adaptation responses to climate change (n = 1549 peer-reviewed articles), we categorize the types of policy tools used to shape climate adaptation. We apply qualitative and quantitative analyses to assess the contexts where particular tools are used, along with equity implications for groups targeted by the tools, and the tools' relationships with transformational adaptation indicators such as the depth, scope, and speed of adaptation. We find diverse types of tools documented across sectors and geographic regions. We also identify a mismatch between the tools that consider equity and those that yield more transformational adaptations. Direct regulations, plans, and capacity building are associated with higher depth and scope of adaptation (thus transformational adaptation), while economic instruments, information provisioning, and networks are not; the latter tools, however, are more likely to target marginalized groups in their design and implementation. We identify multiple research gaps, including a need to assess instrument mixes rather than single tools and to assess adaptations that result from policy implementation. Key policy insights Information-based approaches, networks, and economic instruments are the most frequently documented adaptation policy tools worldwide. Direct regulations, plans, and capacity building are associated with higher depth and scope of adaptation, and thus more transformational adaptation. Capacity building, economic instruments, networks, and information provisioning approaches are more likely to target specific marginalized groups and thus equity challenges. There are many regions and sectors where certain tools are not widely documented (e.g. regulations and plans in Africa and Asia), representing a key research gap.

Ulibarri, N; Ajibade, I; Galappaththi, EK; Joe, ET; Lesnikowski, A; Mach, KJ; Musah-Surugu, JI; Alverio, GN; Segnon, AC; Siders, AR; Sotnik, G; Campbell, D; Chalastani, VI; Jagannathan, K; Khavhagali, V; Reckien, D; Shang, YY; Singh, C; Zommers, Z

A global assessment of policy tools to support climate adaptation

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2021.2002251

Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on food systems, which require strengthening social, economic, and political structures that allow farmers to offer their produce and consumers to have access to the food they eat. This research focuses on food access and stability. Specifically, through the analysis of a system of urban markets and free fairs, the (a) public satisfaction with these spaces, (b) the distribution and access to the same spaces, and (c) potential scenarios envisaging a food system that contributes to the designing of a climate resilient city are evaluated. The results indicate a high public satisfaction with markets and free fairs, while providing evidence on the importance of designing cities that include a network of markets and free fairs in urban planning for climate adaptation and resilience, shifting the paradigm from centralised urban systems towards an urbanism of services' proximity within walking distances.

Iñiguez-Gallardo, V; Córdova, JL; Ordoñez-León, A; Reyes-Bueno, F

Food Markets and Free Fairs as Contributors for Designing Climate Resilient Cities: A Study Case in Southern Ecuador

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su14127214

Climate adaptation measures address the challenges that densification and climate change impose on the urban environment. Sustainable urban drainage system (SUDS) constructs include the introduction of natural elements, such as riparian buffers, vegetative filters, rain beds, water spills, watermark filters, retainers and dams, and are an integral part of these climate adaptation measures. SUDS are commonly undertaken at a municipal level in Norway but, unfortunately, the implementation of SUDS projects has lagged behind expectation. Norway is a normative and egalitarian society, where public resistance to local projects is a factor in the delayed adoption of SUDS. That is why a greater understanding of public perceptions and priorities is needed to build consensus and support for these climate adaptation measures. This research looked at the Blaklibekken SUDS case study in Trondheim, Norway. A cross-section of interviews with the municipality and users was undertaken to establish themes within local perceptions of the project. Themes of environmental benefit, child-related activities, maintenance of the site and funding were established to provide a better understanding of public expectations and what aspects of the project correlated with public acceptance or resistance. This work provides a starting point for further research to establish public 'themes of interest' that can provide decision makers greater insight into public priorities.

Thodesen, B; Time, B; Kvande, T

Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems: Themes of Public Perception-A Case Study

Land

https://doi.org/10.3390/land11040589

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

Morelli, TL; Daly, C; Dobrowski, SZ; Dulen, DM; Ebersole, JL; Jackson, ST; Lundquist, JD; Millar, CI; Maher, SP; Monahan, WB; Nydick, KR; Redmond, KT; Sawyer, SC; Stock, S; Beissinger, SR

Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

Plos One

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0159909

Western larch forests are iconic in the interior northwest, and here we document the preemptive steps that scientists and managers are taking to steward these forests into the future. (hanging climate is forecast to have acute and chronic impacts on growth and disturbance in western larch forests. A group of scientists and managers in the northern Rocky Mountains have teamed up with the Adaptive Silviculture for Climate Change Network in an experiment to proactively manage forests for climate adaptation. The collaborative group developed a gradient of adaptation treatments (i.e., resistance, resilience, and transition) focused on climate change at Coram Experimental Forest and the Flathead National Forest. Treatments are scheduled, and monitoring will follow to fuel future research and to help guide regional managers who seek to learn from our treatments. We conclude with predictions of future dynamics in these stands and emphasize the value of landscape heterogeneity and the necessity of long-term monitoring for silvicultural experiments.

Crotteau, JS; Sutherland, EK; Jain, TB; Wright, DK; Jenkins, MM; Keyes, CR; Nagel, LM

Initiating Climate Adaptation in a Western Larch Forest

Forest Science

https://doi.org/10.1093/forsci/fxz024

Wheat has been documented to be vulnerable to climate change in broad regions of the world including China. Adaptation to future climate change by breeding climate resilient cultivars is essential. However the precise information as to where, when, and what cultivar traits should be applied to adapt to climate change in the coming decades has not been available. In this study, we developed novel hybrid assessment models by incor-porating a process-based crop model and machine learning algorithms based on a large number of cultivars field experiments data. The models were applied to assess the impact of climate change on wheat productivity and to identify the timescale of wheat cultivar adaptation in the major wheat cultivation regions across China. Wheat yield was projected to decrease on average by 6.3% (9.4%) in the 2050 s under RCP 4.5 (8.5), relative to the baseline period (1986-2005), without the CO2 effect. By contrast, it was projected to increase on average by 5.7% (8.1%) in the 2050 s with the CO2 effect, across the regions and cultivar-maturing traits in China. Solar radiation, precipitation, temperature, cultivar-maturing traits, and CO2 are critical factors affecting wheat pro-ductivity in the major wheat cultivation regions. About 44% (39%) and 68% (57%) of wheat planting grids would require cultivar renewal before 2050 (2040) under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenario, respectively, at a medium risk level without the CO2 effect. The cultivars with a long reproductive growth duration, high photosynthetic efficiency and large harvest index would be generally promising although there are specific traits desirable for certain regions. This study developed a novel framework to identify the precise information on where, when, and what cultivar traits should be applied for wheat to adapt to future climate change, helping the stakeholders to cope with climate change timely and precisely.

Tao, FL; Zhang, LL; Zhang, Z; Chen, Y

Designing wheat cultivar adaptation to future climate change across China by coupling biophysical modelling and machine learning

European Journal Of Agronomy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2022.126500

Low-lying coastal areas are often prone to storm surge flooding that can render severe damages to properties, destruction of habitats, threat to human safety and the environment. The impacts of coastal flooding are also expected to increase in the future as a consequence of global climate change and sea-level rise. This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of the potential risks raised by storm surge and sea-level rise on multiple coastal targets (i.e., population, buildings, infrastructures, agriculture, natural and semi-natural environments and cultural heritage) in the Northern Adriatic coast in Italy. Through the assessment of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk, a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology allowed identifying and prioritizing hot-spot risk areas and targets requiring particular attention for the definition of adaptation strategies. Hazard scenarios were based on the analysis of tide gauge data (elaborated with the Joint Probability Method) and of different sea-level rise projections for the year 2100. Geographical-information analysis was then used to characterize vulnerability patterns of exposed natural and human systems and to make a spatial ranking of risks. Maps produced for the worst scenario showed that beaches are the target at higher risk (with more than 90% of the surface in the higher relative risk class) due to the low elevation and high proximity to the coastline. Also cultural heritage (i.e., villas, historical buildings and roads) and wetlands are highly threatened by storm surge flooding. The relative risks will be lower (i.e., between 25% and 40% of their surface/length in the higher relative risk class) for most of the other receptors (i.e., local roads, railways, natural and semi-natural environments and agricultural areas), including population and buildings that are mostly classified in lower risk classes. The overall results of the assessment, including maps and risk metrics, can be useful to rise the attention of coastal managers about the need to adapt to climate change, developing climate-proof policies and programs for the sustainable management of coastal zones.

Rizzi, J; Torresan, S; Zabeo, A; Critto, A; Tosoni, A; Tomasin, A; Marcomini, A

Assessing storm surge risk under future sea-level rise scenarios: a case study in the North Adriatic coast

Journal Of Coastal Conservation

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-017-0517-5

A transition to a solar-based carbon neutral economy is crucial to reduce the overall ecological footprint and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while providing new housing for the growing urban population worldwide. One of the key measures to achieve such reductions as a way to mitigate and adapt to climate change is to increase food and energy self-sufficiency in residential areas. The objective of this study is to explore the potential self-sufficiency in terms of food and energy in generic residential districts in Singapore and Southeast Asia. Computational tools are employed to obtain quantifiable indicators based on sunlight availability. A series of building typologies and urban forms was created as abstractions from actual residential developments in Singapore (1.3 degrees N). In total, 57 cases were assessed in terms of sunlight availability and the impact of three density and geometry parameters: plot ratio, site coverage and building height were considered. Results from selected cases were compared to Hanoi's conditions (21 degrees N). The results show that the indicators having the higher impact on the food and energy self-sufficiency are plot ratio and building height. The cases with the lowest plot ratio (PR < 1.9) achieved food self-sufficiency when a hybrid higher-yield farming method was applied. Regarding energy harvesting, the cases with the lowest building height (<42 m) achieve energy self-sufficiency due to the maximum exposed area with PV per number of residents. In low-latitude regions, solar access is more evenly distributed among all facade orientations than in higher latitudes, therefore providing all facade orientations with food and energy harvesting potential. Food and energy self-sufficiency in equatorial regions is more heavily influenced by the available farming and PV area in relation to the total population than by the reduction of sunlight availability due to building typology and morphology. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tablada, A; Zhao, X

Sunlight availability and potential food and energy self-sufficiency in tropical generic residential districts

Solar Energy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2016.10.041

Malawi is a sub-Saharan African country at the forefront of the contemporary forest landscape restoration movement that places local smallholder farmers and resources users at the center of restoration actions. However, the manifestations of farmer-led bottom-up restoration efforts at individual and collective levels, and how they add up to landscape-scale restoration outcomes remain understudied. We analyze the nature of restoration efforts across interlocked forest and agricultural landscapes, estimate the extent of farmlands under restoration, and examine the contextual drivers and barriers of restoration. We use a mixed-methods approach combining a multivariate Tobit regression model and a Poisson model based on a 2019 household survey (N = 480 households), and qualitative insights from seven focus group discussions from Malawi's Dedza and Ntchisi Districts. The estimated mean total area of restored farmlands per household was 1.10 ( +/- 0.76) and 1.07 ( +/- 0.72) acres, representing, on average, about 54 % and 43 % of the total household landholdings in Dedza and Ntchisi, respectively. Results also indicate restoration diversification and intensification patterns whereby farmers generally combine two or more land-management practices based on complementarities in achieving specific livelihoods, food security, and ecological goals of restoration, and on compatibility regarding labor and other inputs demand. Land configuration mattered. Land plots that were spatially consolidated and tenure-secured were associated with higher restoration efforts. Also, women restoration efforts are limited by their inadequate access to productive inputs. Therefore, restoration policies should center on strategies that improve landownership security while minimizing fragmentation within landholdings and promote gender-responsive interventions. Drivers of collective resources restoration include strong local leadership; perceived tangible benefits for firewood, NTFPs, and timber resources; secure rights to collect firewood and free access to grazing areas; and perceived balanced among payoffs for energy needs, climate change adaptation, and ecological goals. These can inform restoration programs involving collective actions and their governance.

Djenontin, INS; Zulu, LC; Richardson, RB

Smallholder farmers and forest landscape restoration in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Central Malawi

Land Use Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2022.106345

The goal of this paper is to analyze how and with what results place-based climate service coproduction may be enacted within a community for whom climate change is not a locally salient concern. Aiming to initiate a climate-centered dialogue, a hybrid team of scientists and artists collected local narratives within the Kerourien neighbourhood, in the city of Brest in Brittany, France. Kerourien is a place known for its stigmatizing crime, poverty, marginalization and state of disrepair. Social work is higher on the agenda than climate action. The team thus acknowledged that local narratives might not make much mention of climate change, and recognized part of the work might be to shift awareness to the actual or potential, current or future, connections between everyday non-climate concerns and climate issues. Such a shift called for a practical intervention, centered on local culture. The narrative collection process was dovetailed with preparing the neighbourhood's 50th anniversary celebration and establishing a series of art performances to celebrate the neighbourhood and its residents. Non-climate and quasi-climate stories were collected, documented, and turned into art forms. The elements of climate service co-production in this process are twofold. First, they point to the ways in which non-climate change related local concerns may be mapped out in relation to climate change adaptation, showing how non-climate change concerns call for climate information. Secondly, they show how the co-production of climate services may go beyond the provision of climate information by generating procedural benefits such as local empowerment - thus generating capacities that may be mobilized to face climate change. We conclude by stressing that place-based climate service co-production for action may require questioning the nature of the services rendered, questioning the nature of place, and questioning what action entails. We offer leads for addressing these questions in ways that help realise empowerment and greater social justice.

Baztan, J; Vanderlinden, JP; Jaffres, L; Jorgensen, B; Zhu, Z

Facing climate injustices: Community trust-building for climate services through arts and sciences narrative co-production

Climate Risk Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100253

This paper focuses on how scientific uncertainties about future peak flood flows and sea level rises are accounted for in long term strategic planning processes to adapt inland and coastal flood risk management in England to climate change. Combining key informant interviews (n = 18) with documentary analysis, it explores the institutional tensions between adaptive management approaches emphasising openness to uncertainty and to alternative policy options on the one hand and risk-based ones that close them down by transforming uncertainties into calculable risks whose management can be rationalized through cost-benefit analysis and nationally consistent, risk-based priority setting on the other hand. These alternative approaches to managing uncertainty about the first-order risks to society from future flooding are shaped by institutional concerns with managing the second-order, 'institutional' risks of criticism and blame arising from accountability for discharging those first-order risk management responsibilities. In the case of river flooding the poorly understood impacts of future climate change were represented with a simplistic adjustment to peak flow estimates, which proved robust in overcoming institutional resistance to making precautionary allowances for climate change in risk-based flood management, at least in part because its scientific limitations were acknowledged only partially. By contrast in the case of coastal flood risk management, greater scientific confidence led to successively more elaborate guidance on how to represent the science, which in turn led to inconsistency in implementation and increased the institutional risks involved in taking the uncertain effects of future sea level rise into account in adaptation planning and flood risk management. Comparative analysis of these two cases then informs some wider reflections about the tensions between adaptive and risk-based approaches, the role of institutional risk in climate change adaptation, and the importance of such institutional dynamics in shaping the framing uncertainties and policy responses to scientific knowledge about them. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Kuhlicke, C; Demeritt, D

Adaptive and risk-based approaches to climate change and the management of uncertainty and institutional risk: The case of future flooding in England

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.01.007

The exposure to sea-level rise (SLR) risks emerges as a challenging issue in the broader debate about the possible consequences of global environmental change for at least four reasons: the potentially serious impacts, the very high uncertainty regarding future projections of SLR and their effects on the environmental and socio-economic system, the multiple scales involved, and the need to take effective management decisions in terms of climate change adaptation. Unfortunately, mechanistic models generally demonstrated a limited ability to characterise in appropriate detail how complex coastal systems and their constituent parts may respond to climate change drivers and to possible adaptation initiatives. The research reported here develops an innovative methodological framework, which integrates different research areas participatory and probabilistic modelling, and decision analysis - within a coordinated process aimed at decision support. The effectiveness of alternative adaptation measures in a lagoon in north-east Italy is assessed by means of Bayesian Decision Network (BDN) models, developed upon judgments elicited from selected experts. A concept map of the system was first developed in a group brainstorming context and was later evolved into BDN models, thus providing a simplified quantitative structure. Conditional probabilities, quantifying the causal links between the direct and indirect consequences of SLR on the area of study, are elicited from the experts. The proposed methodological framework allows the integrated assessment of factors and processes belonging to different domains of knowledge. Moreover, it activates an informed and transparent participatory process involving disciplinary experts and policy makers, where the main risk factors are considered together with the expected effects of the adaptation options, with effective treatment and communication of the uncertainty pervading the SLR issue. Finally, the framework shows potentials for being further developed and applied to consider new evidences and/or different adaptation strategies, and it results sufficiently flexible to be adopted and effectively reused in other similar case studies. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Catenacci, M; Giupponi, C

Integrated assessment of sea-level rise adaptation strategies using a Bayesian decision network approach

Environmental Modelling & Software

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.10.010

Land cover changes associated with urbanisation modify microclimate, leading to urban heat islands, whereby cities are warmer than the surrounding countryside. Understanding the factors causing this phenomenon could help urban areas adapt to climate change and improve living conditions of inhabitants. In this study, land surface temperatures (LST) of Aarhus, a city in the high latitudes, are estimated from the reflectance of a thermal band (TIRS1; Band 10; 10.60-11.19 mu m) of Landsat 8 on five dates in the summer months (one in 2015, and four in 2018). Spectral indices, modelled on the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), using all combinations of the first seven bands of Landsat 8 are calculated and their relationships with LST, analysed. Land cover characteristics, in terms of the percentages of tree cover, building cover and overall vegetation cover are estimated from airborne LiDAR data, building footprints and 4-band aerial imagery, respectively. The correlations between LST, the spectral indices and land cover are estimated. The difference in mean temperature between the rural and urban parts of Aarhus is up to 3.96 degrees C, while the difference between the warmer and colder zones (based on the mean and SD of LST) is up to 13.26 degrees C. The spectral index using the near infrared band (NIR; Band 5; 0.85-0.88 mu m) and a short-wave infrared band (SWIR2; Band 7; 2.11-2.29 mu m) has the strongest correlations (r: 0.62 to 0.89) with LST for the whole study area. This index is the inverse of normalised burn ratio (NBR), which has been used for mapping burnt areas. Spectral indices using different combinations of the infrared bands have stronger correlations with LST than the more widely used vegetation indices such as NDVI. The percentage of tree cover has a higher negative correlation (Pearson's r: -0.68 to -0.75) with IST than overall vegetation cover (r: -0.45 to -0.63). Tree cover and building cover (r: -0.53 to 0.71) together explain up to 68 % of the variation in LST. Modification of tree and building cover may therefore have the potential to regulate urban LST.

Alexander, C

Normalised difference spectral indices and urban land cover as indicators of land surface temperature (LST)

International Journal Of Applied Earth Observation And Geoinformation

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2019.102013

Woodlands represent highly significant carbon sinks globally, though could lose this function under future climatic change. Effective large-scale monitoring of these woodlands has a critical role to play in mitigating for, and adapting to, climate change. Mediterranean woodlands have low carbon densities, but represent important global carbon stocks due to their extensiveness and are particularly vulnerable because the region is predicted to become much hotter and drier over the coming century. Airborne lidar is already recognized as an excellent approach for high-fidelity carbon mapping, but few studies have used multi-temporal lidar surveys to measure carbon fluxes in forests and none have worked with Mediterranean woodlands. We use a multi-temporal (5-year interval) airborne lidar data set for a region of central Spain to estimate above-ground biomass (AGB) and carbon dynamics in typical mixed broadleaved and/or coniferous Mediterranean woodlands. Field calibration of the lidar data enabled the generation of grid-based maps of AGB for 2006 and 2011, and the resulting AGB change was estimated. There was a close agreement between the lidar-based AGB growth estimate (1.22 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1)) and those derived from two independent sources: the Spanish National Forest Inventory, and a tree-ring based analysis (1.19 and 1.13 Mg ha(-1) y(-1), respectively). We parameterised a simple simulator of forest dynamics using the lidar carbon flux measurements, and used it to explore four scenarios of fire occurrence. Under undisturbed conditions (no fire) an accelerating accumulation of biomass and carbon is evident over the next 100 years with an average carbon sequestration rate of 1.95 Mg C ha(-1) y(-1). This rate reduces by almost a third when fire probability is increased to 0.01 (fire return rate of 100 years), as has been predicted under climate change. Our work shows the power of multi-temporal lidar surveying to map woodland carbon fluxes and provide parameters for carbon dynamics models. Space deployment of lidar instruments in the near future could open the way for rolling out wide-scale forest carbon stock monitoring to inform management and governance responses to future environmental change.

Simonson, W; Ruiz-Benito, P; Valladares, F; Coomes, D

Modelling above-ground carbon dynamics using multi-temporal airborne lidar: insights from a Mediterranean woodland

Biogeosciences

https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-961-2016

India is the second largest producer of potato in the world. The Indo-Gangetic plains (IGP) is the main potato growing region accounting for almost 85% of the 1.8 Mha under the crop in India where it is grown as an irrigated crop during the winter season. Since IGP is in sub-tropical plains, duration of the thermally suitable window is the main determinant limiting yields. Hence the impact of climate change on potato in the IGP was assessed using MIROC HI. 3.2 A1b and B1, PRECIS A1b, A2, B2 scenarios and estimated the potential adaptation gains. The potato crop duration in the IGP is projected to decrease due to climate change. The evapotranspiration (ET) is projected to increase while the water use efficiency (WUE) for potato yield is projected to decline in future climates as a consequence of low threshold temperatures for decline in WUE and yield than the ET. Results indicate that the upper threshold for ET decrease is similar to 23 degrees C while that for WUE is 15 degrees C. The optimal temperatures for tuber yield is similar to 17 degrees C and thus the reduction in WUE in future climates is discernable. Climate change is projected to reduce potato yields by similar to 2.5, similar to 6 and similar to 11% in the IGP region in 2020 (2010-2039), 2050 (2040-2069) and 2080 (2070-2099) time periods. Change in planting time is the single most important adaptation option which may lead to yield gains by similar to 6% in 2020 and its combination with improved variety or additional nitrogen may be required to adapt to climate change leading to positive gains by similar to 8% in 2020 and by similar to 5% even in 2050. However, in 2080 adoption of all the three adaptation strategies may be needed for positive gains. Intra-regional differences in the impact of climate change and adaptation gains are projected; positive impact in north-western IGP, gains in Central IGP with adaptation and yield loss in eastern IGP even with adaptation.

Kumar, SN; Govindakrishnan, PM; Swarooparani, DN; Nitin, C; Surabhi, J; Aggarwal, PK

Assessment of impact of climate change on potato and potential adaptation gains in the Indo-Gangetic Plains of India

International Journal Of Plant Production

None

Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on down-scaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced information about the potential variations of the water balance components (e.g. river discharge, groundwater level and volume) due to climate change. Such projections were used to develop potential hazard scenarios for the case study area, to be further applied within climate change risk assessment studies for groundwater resources and associated ecosystems.

Baruffi, F; Cisotto, A; Cimolino, A; Ferri, M; Monego, M; Norbiato, D; Cappelletto, M; Bisaglia, M; Pretner, A; Galli, A; Scarinci, A; Marsala, V; Panelli, C; Gualdi, S; Bucchignani, E; Torresan, S; Pasini, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.07.070

This study examines the potential impacts of climate change on the characteristics of precipitation over the Drakensberg Mountain Range (DMR) at different global warming levels (GWLs: 1.5, 2.0, 2.5 and 3.0 & DEG;C) under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, using dynamical and statistical downscaled datasets. The dynamical datasets consist of 19 multi-model simulations datasets from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), whereas the statistical downscaled datasets comprise 19 multi-model simulations from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Exchange (NEX) Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP, hereafter NEX). The capacity of the CORDEX and NEX datasets to represent past characteristics of extreme precipitation over the DMR was evaluated against eight observation datasets. The precipitation characteristics were represented by eight precipitation indices. Both CORDEX and NEX realistically capture the characteristics of extreme precipitation over the Drakensberg and, in most cases, their biases lie within the observation uncertainty. However, NEX performs better than CORDEX in reproducing most of the precipitation characteristics, except in simulating the threshold of extreme rainfall. The ensemble means of CORDEX and NEX agree on a future increase in the intensity of normal precipitation, in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation, as well as an increase in widespread extreme events, with a decrease in the number of precipitation days and continuous wet days. However, they disagree on the projected changes of annual precipitation, for which CORDEX projects an increase over most parts of the DMR, whereas NEX indicates a decrease. The self-organizing-map analysis, which reveals diversity in the projection patterns hidden in the ensemble means, shows the most probable combinations of projected changes in the annual precipitation and extreme precipitation events (in terms of intensity and frequency): (a) increase in both annual precipitation and extreme precipitation events; (b) decrease in both annual precipitation and extreme precipitation events; (c) decrease in annual precipitation but increase in extreme precipitation events. The results of this study can thus provide a basis for developing climate change adaptation and mitigating strategies over the DMR.

Takong, RR; Abiodun, BJ

Projected changes in precipitation characteristics over the Drakensberg Mountain Range

International Journal Of Climatology

https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7989

Due to an expected improvement of soil quality and soil water storage, the substitution of mouldboard ploughing by reduced tillage was identified as a potential climate change adaptation measure for organic farming in a relatively dry region with a humid continental climate. In a field trial on a sandy loam soil in eastern Germany, reduced tillage was carried out to 6 cm soil depth by means of a ring cutter and compared to mouldboard ploughing with 25 cm tillage depth. In the present study, the influence of ring cutter tillage on soil properties was investigated for the first time. The effects of shallow ring cutter tillage on soil physical parameters, soil organic matter distribution, soil mineral nitrogen content, total nitrogen uptake by the crop, root content, and grain yield of organically grown winter rye (Secale cereale L.) were analysed in the uppermost 20 cm of a sandy loam soil and compared to those of mouldboard ploughing. Under ring cutter tillage, soil bulk density was in 8-20 cm soil depth by up to 15% higher than under mouldboard ploughing. In 9-15 cm soil depth, ring cutter tillage resulted in smaller contents of coarse macropores and mesopores, more micropores, and an 11% smaller available water capacity compared to mouldboard ploughing. The total nitrogen uptake by winter rye was in the ring cutter treatment by up to 44% smaller than in the mouldboard plough treatment. Root content was up to 209% higher in 1-6 cm soil depth and up to 71% smaller in 8-20 cm soil depth after ring cutter tillage than after mouldboard ploughing. Winter rye yield declined by 22-43% in the ring cutter treatment relative to the mouldboard plough treatment. Shallow ring cutter tillage resulted in a root growth-restricting soil compaction in the non-tilled soil layers below 6 cm depth and led to a limitation of nitrogen mineralisation until spring. Both effects likely caused the considerable reduction of crop yield. The results suggest that shallow ring cutter tillage in organic farming seems to be not suitable for sandy loam soils as long as the risk of a soil compaction-induced limitation of root growth and nitrogen supply cannot be minimised.

Hofbauer, M; Bloch, R; Bachinger, J; Gerke, HH

Effects of shallow non-inversion tillage on sandy loam soil properties and winter rye yield in organic farming

Soil & Tillage Research

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.still.2022.105435

The low elevation coastal zone (LECZ) in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is a critical and highly sensitive area to climate change and sea level rise (SLR). Population is a key element in disaster risk management and climate change adaptation. Employing a variety of datasets including gridded population data, DEM data, sea-level extremes data, and urban boundary data, this study explores the spatiotemporal patterns and dynamics of population in the LECZ of YRD, and estimates the population exposure to inundation in the context of SLR over 1990-2100. Our results show that: (1) the population in the LECZ in 2015 approximates 104 million, with an increase of 29.3 million (39.2%) over 1990. There shows a trend of remarkable population growth in areas close to the coastline (less than 40 km from the coastline) and in areas at lower altitudes (below 4 m above sea level). Meanwhile, driven by rapid urbanization, population in the LECZ concentrates steadily in urban areas with increasing spatial polarization and heterogeneity. (2) In 2020-2100, the projected population in the LECZ of YRD will experience a rise followed by a fall. Under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) with various factors of fertility, mortality, migration and urbanization levels, population will rise gradually from 2020 to 2040 with a peak of near 132 million (SSP5), and then fall remarkably until 2100. (3) Overlaying the SLR with representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the exposed population to inundation will reach 86 million (RCP4.5-SSP2) and 100 million (RCP8.5-SSP5) by 2050, an increase of 13.5% and 32.2% over 2015, respectively. The exposed population will then decrease to 55 million (RCP4.5-SSP2) and 63 million (RCP8.5-SSP5) by 2100, slightly lower than those in 2015. In contrast to population growth, the contribution of SLR to population exposure will steadily increase. (4) Long-term trend of population exposure to SLR will pose considerable challenges to the regional development and planning. Different adaptation efforts should be taken in urban and rural settlements to avoid exacerbating impacts induced by SLR.

Lv, YM; Li, WJ; Wen, JH; Xu, H; Du, SQ

Population pattern and exposure under sea level rise: Low elevation coastal zone in the Yangtze River Delta, 1990-2100

Climate Risk Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100348

Climate sciences foresee a future where extreme weather events could happen with increased frequency and strength, which would in turn increase risks of floods (i.e. the main source of losses in the world). The Mediterranean basin is considered a hot spot in terms of climate vulnerability and risk. The expected impacts of those events are exacerbated by land-use change and, in particular, by urban growth which increases soil sealing and, hence, water runoff. The ultimate consequence would be an increase of fatalities and injuries, but also of economic losses in urban areas, commercial and productive sites, infrastructures and agriculture. Flood damages have different magnitudes depending on the economic value of the exposed assets and on level of physical contact with the hazard. This work aims at proposing a methodology, easily customizable by experts' elicitation, able to quantify and map the social component of vulnerability through the integration of earth observation (EO) and census data with the aim of allowing for a multi-temporal spatial assessment. Firstly, data on employment, properties and education are used for assessing the adaptive capacity of the society to increase resilience to adverse events, whereas, secondly, coping capacity, i.e. the capacities to deal with events during their manifestation, is mapped by aggregating demographic and socio-economic data, urban growth analysis and memory on past events. Thirdly, the physical dimension of exposed assets (susceptibility) is assessed by combining building properties acquired by census data and land-surface characteristics derived from EO data. Finally, the three components (i.e. adaptive and coping capacity and susceptibility) are aggregated for calculating the dynamic flood vulnerability index (FVI). The approach has been applied to Northeast Italy, a region frequently hit by floods, which has experienced a significant urban and economic development in the past decades, thus making the dynamic study of FVI particularly relevant. The analysis has been carried out from 1991 to 2016 at a 5-year steps, showing how the integration of different data sources allows to produce a dynamic assessment of vulnerability, which can be very relevant for planning in support of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.

Cian, F; Giupponi, C; Marconcini, M

Integration of earth observation and census data for mapping a multi-temporal flood vulnerability index: a case study on Northeast Italy

Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04535-w

Zero-tillage, residue management and precision nutrient management techniques are being promoted in the rice-wheat (RW) production system of Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGPs) to enhance climate change adaptation and increase food production. These management practices may also influence greenhouse gas emissions through their effects on various soil processes such as oxidation-reduction and nitrification-denitrification. We measured soil fluxes of CH4 and N2O in RW system under three tillage and residue management systems layered with four nitrogen (N) management treatments. The tillage and residue management systems comprised: conventional tillage (CT), zero-tillage without residue retention (ZT-R) and ZT with full residue retention (ZT+R) for both the crops. The four N management treatments for rice were: (a) basmati cultivar with recommended dose of nitrogen (RDN) applied in three splits, (b) basmati cultivar with 80% RDN as basal dose followed by Green Seeker (GS) guided N application, (c) hybrid cultivar with RDN applied in three splits and (d) hybrid with 80% RDN as basal dose followed by GS guided N application. The four N management treatments for wheat comprised combinations of RDN with and without relay green gram (GG), and 80% of RDN as basal dose followed by GS guided N application with and without relay GG. We employed the static chamber method to collect gas samples from the experimental plots which were subsequently analysed using gas chromatograph. Significant CH4 emissions were detected only in the CT rice system during the initial phase of continuous flooding, irrespective of N management strategies. N fertilization management affected the pattern of N2O emission with higher emission rates during crop establishment phase under 80% RDN as basal followed by GS guided N application than conventional RDN. In case of wheat, 80% RDN as basal followed by GS guided N application also induced higher cumulative N2O emissions than applying RDN at three regular splits. In rice, ZT-based RW system emitted more N2O than CT-based system. Overall ZT-based RW system reduced CH4 emission but this benefit is counterbalanced by higher N2O production compared to CT-based RW system.

Sapkota, TB; Jat, ML; Shankar, V; Singh, LK; Rai, M; Grewal, MS; Stirling, CM

Tillage, residue and nitrogen management effects on methane and nitrous oxide emission from rice-wheat system of Indian Northwest Indo-Gangetic Plains

Journal Of Integrative Environmental Sciences

https://doi.org/10.1080/1943815X.2015.1110181

Thermal performance of greenwalls, a critical and common concern, is regulated by solar irradiance vis-a-vis orientation and shading. A field experiment was conducted in humid-tropical Hong Kong to address the research question under typical summer-weather scenarios: sunny, cloudy and rainy. On a large circular concrete tank, climber-greenwall experimental plots were established with duplication in four cardinal compass directions. Air and infrared-radiometer surface temperature sensors monitored at different greenwall positions: ambient-air (control), bare-concrete-surface (control), vegetation-surface, behind-mesh-airgap, and behind-mesh-concrete surface. Pyranometers were installed vertically at four orientations and horizontally at tank-top (control) to monitor solar-energy input. Habitat verticality induces notable variations in solar-energy capture at four orientations by daily total, peak level, intensity, duration and timing. On sunny day, solar fraction reaching east side was only 37.1% of tank-top. Early morning sunshine striking east side nearly perpendicularly brings maximum intensity. South side facing the sun but at tangential incident angle has only 23.3% reception. Strong irradiance drives high control-surface temperature, but also induces notable vegetation-surface and adjacent ambient-air cooling by transpiration. A threshold solar intensity of about 300 Wm(-2) is necessary to impart notable cooling-effect. Summer-sunny day and rainy-day sunshine-burst episodes could satisfy this condition; cloudy day and rainfall periods with attenuated-diffused sunlight could not. Cloudy day and rainfall periods suppress cooling differences by orientation. Behind-mesh concrete surface is consistently cooler than control concrete surface in the three summer-weather scenarios. Behind-mesh-air remains warmer than ambient-air but cooler than two adjoining surfaces (vegetation and behind-mesh-concrete), indicating air-barrier effect and restricted air exchange between ambience and airgap. It implies that greenwall can bring bidirectional cooling, but transpiration cooling of anterior (ambient) air is more effective than shading and thermal-insulation cooling of posterior (airgap) air and concrete-surface. The findings could inform greenwall design to enhance ecosystem services for climate-change adaption and urban heat island amelioration. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Jim, CY

Thermal performance of climber greenwalls: Effects of solar irradiance and orientation

Applied Energy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.05.077

Climate resilience is an important mix of climate mitigation and climate adaptation designed to minimize current and future disruption while promoting opportunity. Given the importance of the regional and local arena for consideration of impacts of climate change trends and needs for climate action, climate resilience in one community, Duluth, Minnesota, is considered. At the core of this project is the climate resilience question: what can we currently be doing in our communities to prepare for projected climate change while simultaneously improving life for current residents and visitors? Given the growing importance of outdoor recreation and nature-based tourism in Duluth, the role this sector may be able to play in climate resilience is considered. Using action research methodology, the research process of adjusting, presenting, and conducting follow-up from a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Adaptation for Coastal Communities workshop is presented. The study takes a unique look at one workshop outcome, a Duluth Parks and Recreation planning tool. Specifically, a resilience checklist is presented as a useful sample outcome of the overall process. Beyond the study community, the role of outdoor recreation to serve climate resilience is explored and affirmed.

Beery, T

Exploring the Role of Outdoor Recreation to Contribute to Urban Climate Resilience

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su11226268

Anthropogenically-driven changes in seasonal climate patterns are already jeopardizing traditional farming practices all around the world. These climatic changes increasingly expose farmers to challenging conditions, reducing the efficacy of existing farm practices and productivity. There is a plethora of information, tools, and practices that could be useful for farmers trying to respond to climate variability and change, including climate projections, horticultural advances, and agricultural management best practices. Whilst these tools and knowledge exist, they are often not contextualized in ways that equitably facilitate decision-making and action. To ensure weather and climate information services are accessible and useful to farmers, it is critical to understand and integrate considerations for the desired types, timing, and uses of the information. The one-size-fits-all information services that are often available don't account for regional or social differences, local physical conditions, or the needs of different populations. In order to improve our understanding of how weather and climate information services can better cater to farmers' needs when modifying and adapting their goals, risk management, and farm practices, we carried out a household survey in communities across three provinces in Papua New Guinea. The survey was developed to draw out key design considerations for seasonal climate forecasts in terms of timing, type of information, and applications. Based on the clustering and associations of these variables, this study identifies different profiles of information services content. It then examines whether specific profiles are associated with demographic groups or geographic locations. The findings demonstrate gender and geographic differences in the desired bundles of weather and climate information, and therefore can help to pinpoint specific components that would be beneficial to incorporate into extension and outreach programmes in different contexts within Papua New Guinea. This study highlights the value of tailoring weather and climate information services with specific groups of farmers, thereby enabling more equitable access to and use of critical knowledge for smallholders to build the capacity, knowledge, and systems to strategically adapt to climate change. At the same time, this study illustrates areas to gain efficiency and potentially scale up the provision of climate information services.

Friedman, RS; Mackenzie, E; Baiga, R; Inape, K; Crimp, SJ; Howden, M

Designing Climate Information Services to Enhance Resilient Farming Activities: Lessons From Papua New Guinea

Frontiers In Climate

https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.871987

Although the number of studies discerning the impact of climate change on ecological systems continues to increase, there has been relatively little sharing of the lessons learnt when accumulating this evidence. At a recent workshop entitled 'Using climate data in ecological research' held at the UK Met Office, ecologists and climate scientists came together to discuss the robust analysis of climate data in ecology. The discussions identified three common pitfalls encountered by ecologists: 1) selection of inappropriate spatial resolutions for analysis; 2) improper use of publically available data or code; and 3) insufficient representation of the uncertainties behind the adopted approach. Here, we discuss how these pitfalls can be avoided, before suggesting ways that both ecology and climate science can move forward. Our main recommendation is that ecologists and climate scientists collaborate more closely, on grant proposals and scientific publications, and informally through online media and workshops. More sharing of data and code (e.g. via online repositories), lessons and guidance would help to reconcile differing approaches to the robust handling of data. We call on ecologists to think critically about which aspects of the climate are relevant to their study system, and to acknowledge and actively explore uncertainty in all types of climate data. And we call on climate scientists to make simple estimates of uncertainty available to the wider research community. Through steps such as these, we will improve our ability to robustly attribute observed ecological changes to climate or other factors, while providing the sort of influential, comprehensive analyses that efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change so urgently require. Climate is a key driver of ecological patterns and processes, and as such has been the subject of huge research effort over a number of decades. Yet although the literature on the subject is vast, ecologists still succumb to a number of common pitfalls when analysing climate data. In this paper we share some of the lessons and techniques for avoiding these pitfalls, before suggesting some better ways forward, namely: more collaboration, more communication, and more sharing of data and code. By working more closely together, ecologists and climatologists will generate outputs that are far more useful and tractable for society.

Suggitt, AJ; Platts, PJ; Barata, IM; Bennie, JJ; Burgess, MD; Bystriakova, N; Duffield, S; Ewing, SR; Gillingham, PK; Harper, AB; Hartley, AJ; Hemming, DL; Maclean, IMD; Maltby, K; Marshall, HH; Morecroft, MD; Pearce-Higgins, JW; Pearce-Kelly, P; Phillimore, AB; Price, JT; Pyke, A; Stewart, JE; Warren, R; Hill, JK

Conducting robust ecological analyses with climate data

Oikos

https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.04203

Farmers' adaptation to climate change over southern Africa may become an elusive concept if adequate attention is not rendered to the most important adaptive tool, the regional seasonal forecasting system. Uptake of the convectional seasonal rainfall forecasts issued through the southern African regional climate outlook forum process in Zimbabwe is very low, most probably due to an inherent poor forecast skill and inadequate lead time. Zimbabwe's recurrent droughts are never in forecast, and the bias towards near normal conditions is almost perpetual. Consequently, the forecasts are poorly valued by the farmers as benefits accrued from these forecasts are minimal. The dissemination process is also very complicated, resulting in the late and distorted reception. The probabilistic nature of the forecast renders it difficult to interpret by the farmers, hence the need to review the whole system. An innovative approach to a regional seasonal forecasting system developed through a participatory process so as to offer a practically possible remedial option is described in this paper. The main added advantage over the convectional forecast is that the new forecast system carries with it, predominantly binary forecast information desperately needed by local farmers-whether a drought will occur in a given season. Hence, the tailored forecast is easier for farmers to understand and act on compared to the conventional method of using tercile probabilities. It does not only provide a better forecasting skill, but gives additional indications of the intra-seasonal distribution of the rainfall including onsets, cessations, wet spell and dry spell locations for specific terciles. The lead time is more than 3 months, which is adequate for the farmers to prepare their land well before the onset of the rains. Its simplicity renders it relatively easy to use, with model inputs only requiring the states of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) climate modes. The developed forecast system could be one way to enhance management of risks and opportunities in rain-fed agriculture among small-holder farmers not only in Zimbabwe but also throughout the SADC region where the impact of ENSO and/or IOD on a desired station rainfall is significant.

Manatsa, D; Unganai, L; Gadzirai, C; Behera, SK

An innovative tailored seasonal rainfall forecasting production in Zimbabwe

Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0286-2

Background: Climate change further exacerbates the enormous existing burden of undernutrition. It affects food and nutrition security and undermines current efforts to reduce hunger and promote nutrition. Undernutrition in turn undermines climate resilience and the coping strategies of vulnerable populations. Objectives: The objectives of this paper are to identify and undertake a cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the existing mechanisms, strategies, and policies to address them. Methods: A cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the mechanisms and policies to address them was guided by an analytical framework focused on the three 'underlying causes' of undernutrition: 1) household food access, 2) maternal and child care and feeding practices, 3) environmental health and health access. The analytical framework includes the interactions of the three underlying causes of undernutrition with climate change,vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation. Results: Within broad efforts on climate change mitigation and adaptation and climate-resilient development, a combination of nutrition-sensitive adaptation and mitigation measures, climate-resilient and nutrition-sensitive agricultural development, social protection, improved maternal and child care and health, nutrition-sensitive risk reduction and management, community development measures, nutrition-smart investments, increased policy coherence, and institutional and cross-sectoral collaboration are proposed as a means to address the impacts of climate change to food and nutrition security. This paper proposes policy directions to address nutrition in the climate change agenda and recommendations for consideration by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Conclusions: Nutrition and health stakeholders need to be engaged in key climate change adaptation and mitigation initiatives, including science-based assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and policies and actions formulated by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Improved multi-sectoral coordination and political will is required to integrate nutrition-sensitive actions into climate-resilient sustainable development efforts in the UNFCCC work and in the post 2015 development agenda. Placing human rights at the center of strategies to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change and international solidarity is essential to advance sustainable development and to create a climate for nutrition security.

Tirado, MC; Crahay, P; Mahy, L; Zanev, C; Neira, M; Msangi, S; Brown, R; Scaramella, C; Coitinho, DC; Müller, A

Climate change and nutrition: Creating a climate for nutrition security

Food And Nutrition Bulletin

https://doi.org/10.1177/156482651303400415

Integrating advanced materials in building glazing systems is critical for promoting net-zero energy buildings. In this research, both experimental and numerical studies were conducted on an aerogel glazing system. In order to provide climate adaptive designs on the aerogel glazing system with optimal geometric and operating parameters, a generic optimization methodology was developed by flexibly integrating supervised machine learning and advanced teaching-learning-based optimization algorithm. The proposed optimization methodology was thereafter used for optimal system designs in different climate regions. Results indicate that the proposed surrogate model can intelligently and accurately learn and update the optimization function with straightforward mathematical associations between multi-variables and objectives. In addition, within optimal cases, total heat gain and heat flux are dominated by the extinction coefficient in southern cities, whereas the total heat gain is dominated by the thermal conductivity in the northern city, LanZhou. By adopting the proposed technique in this study, compared to optimal results following the Taguchi standard orthogonal array, the total heat gain can be reduced by 62.5% to 36.27 kWh/m(2) in LanZhou, and by 5.9% to 267.18 kWh/m(2) in GuangZhou, respectively. This study formulates a general methodology for climate adaptive optimal designs on aerogel glazing systems in different climatic regions. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Zhou, YK; Zheng, SQ

Climate adaptive optimal design of an aerogel glazing system with the integration of a heuristic teaching-learning-based algorithm in machine learning-based optimization

Renewable Energy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2020.01.133

Discourses of urgency have dominated adaptation responses to climate change, necessitating fast and decisive action. These discourses are particularly apparent in low-lying island states due to rising sea levels. Tuvalu, an atoll state in the South Pacific, has engaged in land reclamation projects as a means of adaptation. Focusing on these projects, I explore how chronopolitics can help tease apart the complex spatialities and temporalities which underpin adaptation. Chronopolitics describes the relationship between the politics of individuals and groups and their perspective on time, thus it can help to unpack how time perceptions shape adaptation decision-making processes. Drawing on fieldwork in the South Pacific and COP24 in Poland, I contend that adaptation serves as a performative process that supports alternative climate futures. Within this paper, I use critical geopolitics to show how these futures are suffused with power relations, at domestic, international and financial levels. Moreover, through an examination of the 2019 Pacific Island Forum, I argue that land reclamation serves as a visible, material resource to enrol in performative forms of diplomacy. Subsequently, I show how it is imperative that geographers, and social scientists more broadly, are attentive to the temporality and spatiality of adaptation to understand its political potential.

Saddington, L

The chronopolitics of climate change adaptation: land reclamation in Tuvalu

Territory Politics Governance

https://doi.org/10.1080/21622671.2023.2216732

Natural and human-induced hazards and climatic risks threaten marine and coastal ecosystems worldwide, with severe consequences for these socio-ecological systems. Therefore, assessing climate vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) and the cumulative environmental impacts of multiple hazards are essential in coastal planning and management. In this article, we review some approaches used in climate vulnerability assessment and marine and coastal cumulative environmental impacts to learn about state-of-the-art on the subject. Besides, we qualitatively evaluated the climatic vulnerability of five coastal regions of Venezuela using the IPCC concept of Reasons for Concern (RFCs) to determine their level of climatic exposure. We also assessed the cumulative environmental impact of multiple stressors on marine and terrestrial ecosystems using a well-known impact assessment method partially modified to explore the feasibility of this model in data-poor areas. However, we found no standardization of the methodologies used in evaluating Coastal Climate Vulnerability or Cumulative Environmental Impacts in coastal landscapes or frameworks that operationally link them with socio-ecological systems. Most studied coastal regions are at risk from at least three RFCs, loss of unique ecosystems (RFC1), risks associated with extreme events (RFC2) and risks associated with global aggregate impacts (RFC4). Furthermore, the assessment showed that areas with accumulated impact cover about 10 percent ranging from moderate to high in urban areas, growth zones, industrial oil settlements, port areas and aquaculture areas with fishing activity. Moreover, areas with moderate to low cumulative impact cover half of the study area, dominated by uninhabited regions and vegetation of the thorny scrub and coastal grassland types. Therefore, we consider it essential to implement regional climate risk management that incorporates these assessments into the ordinance in countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate change, such as Venezuela, which has an extensive line of low-lying coastlines (where 60% of the country's population lives) and coastal regions with harsh climates and poor economic conditions. Finally, we present the scope and limitations of implementing these evaluations and highlight the importance of incorporating them into regional strategies for adaptation to climate change.

Olivares-Aguilar, IC; Sánchez-Dávila, G; Wildermann, NE; Clark, D; Floerl, L; Villamizar, E; Matteucci, SD; Sevilla, NPM; Nagy, GJ

Methodological approaches to assess climate vulnerability and cumulative impacts on coastal landscapes

Frontiers In Climate

https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.1018182

Global solar radiation has exhibited complicated changes with significant temporal and regional variations, while greater crop light utilization efficiency (LUE) was reported due to the increased yield. Based on daily meteorological data collected at 207 weather stations in the irrigated maize area of Northwest China (IMA) and the spring maize area in Northeast China (SMA), the spatiotemporal characteristics of regional photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) during the maize growing season and LUE are analyzed. Additionally, the probable reasons causing the changes in these variables are discussed from 1961 to 2014. Large regional differences of PAR during the maize growing season were found in the study area ranging from 4107.2 to 5937.3 mol center dot m(-2), which gradually decreased from west to east. Compared to the SMA, the IMA exhibited 12.7% greater PAR during the past 54 years, while IMA showed lower LUE in 1961 - 1999 and 28.9% higher than SMA since the 2000s. Both SMA the IMA have experienced a continuous dimming trend in the maize growing season as the total PAR has decreased by 4.63%, with an average change rate of - 36.04 mol center dot m(-2)center dot 10a(-1). However, a significant increasing trend for the maize LUE at the farmer's level was found in 1961-2014, which has changed from 0.39 to 2.90% in IMA and 0.39 to 2.19% in SMA, respectively. Furthermore, large LUE gaps exist between farmer's level and high record level, as the highest LUE has reached 6.74% in the study area. The inconsistent changes between the PAR and the LUE resulted from the increased yield. The positive effect of agricultural technology and crop varieties' improvement on maize yield compensated for the negative impact of PAR reduction. In summary, asymmetry dynamic change trends between the PAR and the LUE were found during the maize growing season in North China, and the IMA showed higher maize yield, PAR, and LUE. Making full use of radiation resources may be one of the effective ways to improve the maize yield in the SMA, which could help maize production better adapt to climate change.

He, HY; Hu, Q; Wang, J; Xing, MY; Liu, YY; Wang, XC; Li, R; Pan, XB; Pan, ZH; Huang, BX; He, QJ

Asymmetric changes of photosynthetically active radiation and light utilization efficiency during the maize growing season in North China

Theoretical And Applied Climatology

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04000-z

The paper aimed to analyze cereals production and price at farm gate, also farm inputs prices (seeds, fertilizers, plant protection products, fuel and herbicides) in the EU in the period 2016-2021 and also partially in 2022 in order to identify the trends in the main cereals producing countries France, Germany, Poland, Romania, Italy, Spain and Hungary and to propose a few alternatives to farmers how to adapt to climate change for sustaining production. Eurostat data regarding cereals production and price at farm gate and also prices for farm inputs were used, graphically illustrated including trend regression equation and coefficient of determination. The results pointed out that EU cereals output accounted for 272.6 million tonnes in 2022, being by-8.2% lower than the peak of 2019. Wheat and maize production is 128.19 million tonnes and, respectively, 55.1 million tonnes, meaning lower levels than before. Cereals output declined in the main producing countries: France, Germany, Romania, Spain, Italy, Hungary, but increased in Poland. High temperatures, heat waves, severe and long droughts, low precipitations were the main causes related to climate change. Cereals price at the farm gate increased, and also production costs went up due to the raise in farm input prices which started since 2021 and exploded in 2022. High price for diesel, seeds, fertilizers, plant protection products, herbicides, were recorded compared to their levels in 2015. The highest increase of producer's price ranged between +60.7% in Hungary and +31.8% in Spain. In Romania it was +40%. Compared to 2015, in 2021, the growth rate of farm inputs price was: +15.8% for diesel, +10.8% for seeds, +9.8% for fertilizers, +5,13% for herbicides and +3% for plant protection products. In the future, farmers have to increase production rethinking cereals structure, using more high potential varieties and hybrids, resistant to drought, diseases and pests; to extend biodiversity and use crop rotation to preserve soil nutrients; to implement technologies with fewer inputs and conservative agriculture for assuring the sustainable development of cereals production, protecting environment and preserving biodiversity.

Popescu, A; Stanciu, M; Erban, VS; Ciocan, HN

CEREALS PRODUCTION AND PRICE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

Scientific Papers-Series Management Economic Engineering In Agriculture And Rural Development

None

The question of whether organic or conventional agriculture is most suitable for meeting world food requirements and improving resilience to climate change is the topic of much current research. Most comparisons, however, focus either on output efficiency such as yields or on impacts of different nutrient management strategies on the sustainability of the agrosystems, and the impacts of each on the agricultural food webs and beneficial insects responsible for pest control - or outbreaks - has been often overlooked. While standard cropping models can explain if, why and how organic nutrient and crop management work and how they should be adapted to climate change, the lack of mechanistic models of agroecology prevents us from explaining why and how passive and active biocontrol and integrated pest management function, when they do not function, and what optimal management strategies could be employed. In this research, we show that agroecological food web models calibrated with field population dynamics data can be used to demonstrate the mechanisms behind food web dynamics that have been previously observed in the field. Results of scenario simulations show that chemical control provides immediate relief from pest pressures, but at high risk of later pest resurgence if control is not repeated; on the contrary, biological control requires more time to reduce pest populations to acceptable levels but with minimal risk of causing resurgence. In all cases, success of pest control measures is highly dependent on the date of action. In addition, the use of modelling tools to optimise biological control application dates led to much better control than either fixed date or pest population threshold-based applications. These analyses and resulting integrated pest management intervention recommendations are only possible with agroecological food web population dynamics models. We encourage future studies to examine more complex food webs from a variety of agroecosystems to test whether functional responses differ significantly, and hope that this approach will succeed in bringing agroecological food web predictive modelling to the level where it can routinely be used as a decision-making support tool, as hydrological and crop models are employed today.

Malard, JJ; Adamowski, JF; Díaz, MR; Nassar, JB; Anandaraja, N; Tuy, H; Arévalo-Rodriguez, LA; Melgar-Quiñonez, HR

Agroecological food web modelling to evaluate and design organic and conventional agricultural systems

Ecological Modelling

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.108961

Diverse and contested local interests and the complexity of climate change make adaptation to climate change risks at the coast challenging. Even in similar settings, adaptation experiences and prospects can differ markedly. Why? This paper provides empirical evidence of comparative adaptation experiences in two regions of Aotearoa-New Zealand the Coromandel Peninsula and the Hawke's Bay coast. We critically examine how local barriers and enablers influence the trajectory of adaptation in two regions that face similar risks, have essentially the same institutional architecture, and yet have had very different adaptation experiences. We investigate the situational differences and similarities, and their implications for adaptation in each region. We found that the evolution of adaptation is shaped by the perceptions of the actors, especially local authority leaders, and opportunities that arise at a context-specific point in time. Such perceptions and opportunities can amount to barriers in one location and enablers in another. Growing concern about coastal hazard risk, improving levels of trust and legitimacy, community engagement, and collaborative governance were key to innovative long-term adaptation planning in the Hawke's Bay but their absence has led to short-term business as usual practices in the Coromandel. Yet even in the latter case, change is underway and longer-term adaptation planning is commencing. We conclude that there is a 'rising tide' of adaptation action in the face of escalating climate risk - with long-term planning and local action triggered by cumulative hazard experience and / or extreme events that raise public concern and make climate change salient to local community members and leaders. Both local and regional interests and concerns shape local response appetites. Proactive, local authority-led engagement and long-term strategic planning are foundational for mobilizing effective adaptation responses. Enabling national policy, guidance and institutional provisions are key to prompting and sustaining such efforts, and to facilitating broad consistency in locally appropriate responses. Notwithstanding efforts to foster locally appropriate but nationally aligned adaptation responses, our research shows that coastal communities and their local authorities follow pathways consistent with local risk appetites, understanding about climate change, and the political will and capacity of local government to mobilize key governance actors around long-term strategic planning.

Schneider, P; Lawrence, J; Glavovic, B; Ryan, E; Blackett, P

A rising tide of adaptation action: Comparing two coastal regions of Aotearoa-New Zealand

Climate Risk Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100244

Separating out the influence of climatic trend, fluctuations and extreme events on crop yield is of paramount importance to climate change adaptation, resilience, and mitigation. Previous studies lack systematic and explicit assessment of these three fundamental aspects of climate change on crop yield. This research attempts to separate out the impacts on rice yields of climatic trend (linear trend change related to mean value), fluctuations (variability surpassing the fluctuation threshold which defined as one standard deviation (1 SD) of the residual between the original data series and the linear trend value for each climatic variable), and extreme events (identified by absolute criterion for each kind of extreme events related to crop yield). The main idea of the research method was to construct climate scenarios combined with crop system simulation model. Comparable climate scenarios were designed to express the impact of each climate change component and, were input to the crop system model (CERES-Rice), which calculated the related simulated yield gap to quantify the percentage impacts of climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events. Six Agro-Meteorological Stations (AMS) in Hunan province were selected to study the quantitatively impact of climatic trend, fluctuations and extreme events involving climatic variables (air temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration) on early rice yield during 1981-2012. The results showed that extreme events were found to have the greatest impact on early rice yield (-2.59 to -15.89%). Followed by climatic fluctuations with a range of -2.60 to -4.46%, and then the climatic trend (4.91-2.12%). Furthermore, the influence of climatic trend on early rice yield presented trade-offs among various climate variables and AMS. Climatic trend and extreme events associated with air temperature showed larger effects on early rice yield than other climatic variables, particularly for high-temperature events (-2.11 to -12.99%). Finally, the methodology use to separate out the influences of the climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events on crop yield was proved to be feasible and robust. Designing different climate scenarios and feeding them into a crop system model is a potential way to evaluate the quantitative impact of each climate variable.

Wang, Z; Shi, PJ; Zhang, Z; Meng, YC; Luan, YB; Wang, JW

Separating out the influence of climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events on crop yield: a case study in Hunan Province, China

Climate Dynamics

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3831-6

Background: There is a growing body of evidence that the impacts of climate change are affecting population health negatively. The Pacific region is particularly vulnerable to climate change; a strong health-care system is required to respond during times of disaster. This paper examines the capacity of the health sector in Pacific Island Countries to adapt to changing disaster response needs, in terms of: (i) health workforce governance, management, policy and involvement; (ii) health-care capacity and skills; and (iii) human resources for health training and workforce development. Methods: Key stakeholder interviews informed the assessment of the capacity of the health sector and disaster response organizations in Pacific Island Countries to adapt to disaster response needs under a changing climate. The research specifically drew upon and examined the adaptive capacity of individual organizations and the broader system of disaster response in four case study countries (Fiji, Cook Islands, Vanuatu and Samoa). Results: 'Capacity' including health-care capacity was one of the objective determinants identified as most significant in influencing the adaptive capacity of disaster response systems in the Pacific. The research identified several elements that could support the adaptive capacity of the health sector such as: inclusive involvement in disaster coordination; policies in place for health workforce coordination; belief in their abilities; and strong donor support. Factors constraining adaptive capacity included: weak coordination of international health personnel; lack of policies to address health worker welfare; limited human resources and material resources; shortages of personnel to deal with psychosocial needs; inadequate skills in field triage and counselling; and limited capacity for training. Conclusion: Findings from this study can be used to inform the development of human resources for health policies and strategic plans, and to support the development of a coordinated and collaborative approach to disaster response training across the Pacific and other developing contexts. This study also provides an overview of health-care capacity and some of the challenges and strengths that can inform future development work by humanitarian organizations, regional and international donors involved in climate change adaptation, and disaster risk reduction in the Pacific region.

Rumsey, M; Fletcher, SM; Thiessen, J; Gero, A; Kuruppu, N; Daly, J; Buchan, J; Willetts, J

A qualitative examination of the health workforce needs during climate change disaster response in Pacific Island Countries

Human Resources For Health

https://doi.org/10.1186/1478-4491-12-9

Background Climate change poses a risk of health catastrophes and must be expeditiously addressed across the health care sector. Physicians are considered trustworthy and are well positioned to discuss climate change with patients. A unified strategy by all U.S. medical societies is essential to effectively mitigate their carbon footprint and address health concerns. Methods We conducted a review of the public facing websites of member organizations of the AMA House of Delegates and the AMA, which were scored based on inclusion of content related to climate change in position statements or policies, task forces or committees, patient education materials, practice recommendations and any official society publications. Membership in the Medical Society Consortium on Climate and Health or participation in the organization My Green Doctor were recorded as indicators of a commitment to providing educational resources about mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The availability of a virtual option for annual meetings, as a potential means to reduce the carbon footprint of attendees, was trended from 2021 to 2022. Results Fifty out of 111 U.S. medical organizations (45%) had at least one metric with a reference to climate change and sixty-one organizations (55%) had no evidence of such website content. Out of 111 websites, only 20% (N = 22) had position statements or policies pertaining to climate change, 11% (N = 12) had committees or task forces dealing with climate change, 8% (N = 9) provided patient education resources on climate change, 21% (N = 23) included green practice recommendations and 45% (N = 50) had an article in an official society publication addressing climate change. Only 14% (N = 15) were listed as member societies of the Medical Consortium on Climate Change and 2% (N = 2) were participating organizations with My Green Doctor. Conclusions Viewed through the lens of medical society websites, there was a wide variation in efforts to address climate change. The high performing organizations can serve as a guide for other societies to help mitigate and adapt to the climate emergency.

Bush, T; Jensen, WA; Katsumoto, TR

US medical organizations and climate change advocacy: a review of public facing websites

Bmc Public Health

https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-14339-7

Intensification of groundwater irrigation is central to goals of improving food security and reducing chronic poverty faced by millions of rural households across the eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains (EIGP) of Nepal and parts of eastern India. At present, levels of groundwater use and access in the EIGP lag far behind other areas of South Asia despite abundant available groundwater resources. A key reason for prevailing access constraints is the dependence on diesel pumpsets for accessing groundwater, which are typically unsubsidised and therefore expensive to purchase and operate. To date, efforts to reduce access costs have focused almost exclusively on how to incentivise adoption of alternative electric or solar-powered pumping technologies, which are viewed as being cheaper to operate and less environmentally damaging due to their lower operational carbon emissions. In contrast, there has been little attention paid to identifying opportunities to make existing diesel pump systems more cost effective for farmers to operate in order to support adaptation to climate change and reduce poverty. In this study, we use evidence from 116 detailed in-situ pump tests along with interviews with pumpset dealers, mechanics and farmers in the Nepal Terai to assess how and why fuel efficiency and operational costs of diesel pump irrigation are affected by farmers' pumpset selection decisions. We show that costs diesel pumpset irrigation can be reduced significantly by supporting and incentivising farmers (e.g., through equipment advisories, improved supply chains for maintenance services and spare parts) to invest in newer low-cost, portable and smaller horsepower pumpset designs that are more effectively matched to local operating conditions in the EIGP than older Indian manufactured engines that have historically been preferred by farmers in the region. Such interventions can help to unlock potential for intensified irrigation water use in the EIGP, contributing to goals of improving agricultural productivity and resilience to climate extremes while also strengthening farmers capacity to invest in emerging low-carbon pumping technologies.

Foster, T; Adhikari, R; Adhikari, S; Justice, S; Tiwari, B; Urfels, A; Krupnik, TJ

Improving pumpset selection to support intensification of groundwater irrigation in the Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains

Agricultural Water Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2021.107070

In order for agricultural systems to successfully mitigate and adapt to climate change there is a need to coordinate and prioritize next steps for research and extension. This includes focusing on win-win management practices that simultaneously provide short-term benefits to farmers and improve the sustainability and resiliency of agricultural systems with respect to climate change. In the Northwest U.S., a collaborative process has been used to engage individuals spanning the research-practice continuum. This collaborative approach was utilized at a 2016 workshop titled Agriculture in a Changing Climate, that included a broad range of participants including university faculty and students, crop and livestock producers, and individuals representing state, tribal and federal government agencies, industry, nonprofit organizations, and conservation districts. The Northwest U.S. encompasses a range of agro-ecological systems and diverse geographic and climatic contexts. Regional research and science communication efforts for climate change and agriculture have a strong history of engaging diverse stakeholders. These features of the Northwest U.S. provide a foundation for the collaborative research and extension prioritization presented here. We focus on identifying research and extension actions that can be taken over the next 5 years in four areas identified as important areas by conference organizers and participants: (1) cropping systems, (2) livestock systems, (3) decision support systems to support consideration of climate change in agricultural management decisions; and (4) partnerships among researchers and stakeholders. We couple insights from the workshop and a review of current literature to articulate current scientific understanding, and priorities recommended by workshop participants that target existing knowledge gaps, challenges, and opportunities. Priorities defined at the Agriculture in a Changing Climate workshop highlight the need for ongoing investment in interdisciplinary research integrating social, economic, and biophysical sciences, strategic collaborations, and knowledge sharing to develop actionable science that can support informed decision-making in the agriculture sector as the climate changes.

Yorgey, GG; Hall, SA; Allen, ER; Whitefield, EM; Embertson, NM; Jones, VP; Saari, BR; Rajagopalan, K; Roesch-McNally, GE; Van Horne, B; Abatzoglou, JT; Collins, HP; Houston, LL; Ewing, TW; Kruger, CE

Northwest U.S. Agriculture in a Changing Climate: Collaboratively Defined Research and Extension Priorities

Frontiers In Environmental Science

https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2017.00052

Magnetostratigraphic studies have established a first-order chronological framework for the Paleolithic sites in the Nihewan Basin (North China), which enabled tracking early human evolution in East Asia. However, to fully understand how well early humans were adapted to climate change, a truly precise dating of the Paleolithic sites is required. Here, we established a high-resolution astronomical timescale for the Xiantai and Donggutuo fluvio-lacustrine successions at the eastern margin of the Nihewan Basin employing low-field magnetic susceptibility (x) as a climatic indicator, aiming to further refine the ages of the Xiantai, Donggutuo and Maliang Paleolithic sites. Starting from an initial age model constrained by geomagnetic reversals, larger-scale x cycles were firstly tuned to orbital obliquity using an automatic orbital tuning method. This first-order tuning was followed by simultaneously tuning x to both obliquity and precession. The finally tuned x records can be correlated almost cycle-by-cycle with the quartz grain-size record of the Chinese loess sequence and the marine delta O-18 record. The astronomically estimated age of the Xiantai Paleolithic site is ca. 1.48 Ma, corresponding to paleosol layer S-20 of the Chinese loess sequences or marine oxygen isotope stage (MIS) 49, an interglacial period. The astronomical estimate for the Donggutuo Paleolithic site ranges from similar to 1.06 Ma to 1.12 Ma, corresponding to paleosol/loess layers S-11-S-12 or MIS 31-33, spanning both interglacial and glacial periods. The astronomically estimated age of the Maliang Paleolithic site is similar to 0.79 Ma, corresponding to loess layer L-8 or MIS 20, a glacial period. This astronomical finding further implies that early humans may have permanently occupied China as far north as 40 degrees N since at least 1.1 Ma, and before this time the occupation may be intermittent. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ao, H; Deng, CL; Dekkers, MJ; Liu, QS; Qin, L; Xiao, GQ; Chang, H

Astronomical dating of the Xiantai, Donggutuo and Maliang Paleolithic sites in the Nihewan Basin (North China) and implications for early human evolution in East Asia

Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2010.07.022

To clarify the current situation, hotspots, and development trends in the field of rice and climate change topic research, a massive literature dataset were analyzed from the Web of Science database by bibliometric method. The research theme was chosen given the continuous increase of studies related to climatic changes and their consequences to rice. Based on the Web of Science core database, this study analyzed 4170 papers in the field of rice and climate change topic research from 1990 to July 2022, which include 86 highly cited papers and 3 hot papers. Papers were mainly written in English (4157, 99.688%), from 16,363 authors, 4017 organizations, and 129 countries/territories, published in 841 journals and seven book series. The top five Journals are Science of the Total Environment (136, 3.261%), Sustainability (89, 2.134%), Agronomy Basel (81, 1.942%), Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (77, 1.847%), and Climatic Change (74, 1.775%), each published more than 74 papers. Top five countries and regions of People's Republic of China, the USA, India, Australia, and Japan were the major article contributors, each published more than 360 papers. Top five organizations of Chinese Acad Sci, Nanjing Agr Univ, Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Chinese Acad Agr Sci, and Int Rice Res Inst (IRRI) were popular based on contribution of articles more than 133 papers each. Among the all authors, top five authors were Tao Fulu, Pan Genxing, Zhang Zhao, Hasegawa Toshihiro, and Iizumi Toshichika, each published more than thirty papers. All keywords were separated into eight clusters for different research topics. Visualizations offer exploratory information on the current state in a scientific field or discipline as well as indicate possible developments in the future. The results will help researchers clarify the current situation in rice and climate change adaptation science but also provide guidance for future research. This work is also useful for student identifying graduate schools and researchers selecting journals.

Yuan, BZ; Sun, J

Bibliometric analysis of rice and climate change publications based on Web of Science

Theoretical And Applied Climatology

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04169-3

It is increasingly recognized that climate change could impose both direct and indirect impacts on the quality of the water environment. Previous studies have mostly concentrated on evaluating the impacts of climate change on non-point source pollution in agricultural watersheds. Few studies have assessed the impacts of climate change on the water quality of river basins with complex point and non-point pollution sources. In view of the gap, this paper aims to establish a framework for stochastic assessment of the sensitivity of water quality to future climate change in a river basin with complex pollution sources. A sub-daily soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was developed to simulate the discharge, transport, and transformation of nitrogen from multiple point and non-point pollution sources in the upper Huai River basin of China. A weather generator was used to produce 50 years of synthetic daily weather data series for all 25 combinations of precipitation (changes by -10, 0, 10, 20, and 30%) and temperature change (increases by 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 degrees C) scenarios. The generated daily rainfall series was disaggregated into the hourly scale and then used to drive the subdaily SWAT model to simulate the nitrogen cycle under different climate change scenarios. Our results in the study region have indicated that (1) both total nitrogen (TN) loads and concentrations are insensitive to temperature change; (2) TN loads are highly sensitive to precipitation change, while TN concentrations are moderately sensitive; (3) the impacts of climate change on TN concentrations are more spatiotemporally variable than its impacts on TN loads; and (4) wide distributions of TN loads and TN concentrations under individual climate change scenario illustrate the important role of climatic variability in affecting water quality conditions. In summary, the large variability in SWAT simulation results within and between each climate change scenario highlights the uncertainty of the impacts of climate change and the need to incorporate extreme conditions in managing water environment and developing climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Yang, XY; Tan, L; He, RM; Fu, GT; Ye, JY; Liu, Q; Wang, GQ

Stochastic sensitivity analysis of nitrogen pollution to climate change in a river basin with complex pollution sources

Environmental Science And Pollution Research

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-0257-y

North China is the most important food basket of China, where the majority of wheat and corn are produced. Most crops grown in North China are irrigated, thus water security is food security. Since the 1980s, drying has been frequently observed, as shown by a reduction in precipitation, cutoff in riverflow, and shrinkage of lakes. This increase in drying cannot be explained by climate change alone. We propose that intensive land-use in this area in recent decades has had a significant impact. The objectives of the study are to develop a quantitative model of the concurrent processes of climate change and land-use in North China, and to estimate the relative contributions of each on the observed drying. We integrated relevant socioeconomic data, land-use data, and climate data in the model, and carried out a detailed multi-temporal (decade, year, day) analysis. Results showed that land-use has greatly changed since 1999. This change is mainly associated with an extremely important 1999 national policy of returning farmland and grazing land to forest and grassland. We found an interesting interaction between climate change and land use policy on riverflow, runoff, and evapotranspiration. During 1970s and 1980s, climate change explained more than 80%, while the land-use change explained only 10% of the riverflow change. The relative contributions were 45 and 45% in the 1980s-1990s and 35 and 55% in the 1990s-2000s respectively for climate change and land-use change. Since the 1990s land-use change has also contributed more to runoff change than climate change. The opposite trend was found for changes in evapotranspiration. Water availability for agriculture in northern China is simultaneously stressed by extensive changes in land-use and rapid climate change. Adaptation of ecological principles, such as the returning farmland/grazing land to forest and grassland policy, and other adjustments of economic developmental strategies can be effective tools to mitigate the water shortage problem in northern China and promote sustainable agricultural and food development.

Qiu, GY; Yin, J; Shu, G

Impact of Climate and Land-Use Changes on Water Security for Agriculture in Northern China

Journal Of Integrative Agriculture

https://doi.org/10.1016/S1671-2927(12)60792-5

Increased understanding of global warming and documentation of its observable impacts have led to the development of adaptation responses to climate change around the world. A necessary, but often missing, component of adaptation involves the assessment of outcomes and impact. Through a systematic review of research literature, I categorize 110 adaptation initiatives that have been implemented and shown some degree of effectiveness. I analyze the ways in which these activities have been documented as effective using five indicators: reducing risk and vulnerability, developing resilient social systems, improving the environment, increasing economic resources, and enhancing governance and institutions. The act of cataloging adaptation activities produces insights for current and future climate action in two main areas: understanding common attributes of adaptation initiatives reported to be effective in current literature; and identifying gaps in adaptation research and practice that address equality, justice, and power dynamics.

Owen, G

What makes climate change adaptation effective? A systematic review of the literature

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102071

Soil erosion is the predominant agent affecting ecosystem services in the Ethiopian highlands. However, land management interventions aimed at controlling erosion in the region are hampered, mainly by a lack of watershed-based appropriate management practices and anticipated climate changes. This study examined the effectiveness of different land use changes and management scenarios in decreasing runoff and sediment loss under current and future climates in the drought-prone humid watershed of the Ethiopian highlands. We employed a modeling approach integrating observed data at watershed and plot scales with Soil and Water Assessment Tool. In the first step, we evaluated the impact of land use changes between 2006 and 2017 on runoff and sediment loss. Then, we developed five land use and management scenarios based on watershed land capabilities and selected land management practices. Model parameters were modified based on runoff and sediment loss results obtained from experimental plots of biophysical and agronomical land management practices in the watershed. The runoff and sediment loss were simulated under current (2014-2019) and future climates (the 2050s) for each land use and management scenario. Results revealed that land use changes (mainly an increase in Acacia decurrens plantations by 206%) alone between 2006 and 2017 reduced runoff by 31% and sediment loss by 45%. Under the current climate, the five land use and management scenarios reduced runoff by 71-95% and sediment loss by 75-96% compared to the baseline scenario. Under the future climate (2050s), these scenarios decreased runoff by 48-90% and sediment loss by 54-91%. However, their effectiveness was slightly decreased (5-23%) as a result of increases in rainfall (10-46%) and mean temperature (1.7-1.9 degrees C) in the 2050s. The scenario of improving vegetation cover through forage production and plantations in appropriate areas plus best land management practices was the most effective and climate-resilient of the five scenarios. This study suggests that evaluating the impact of land use and management practices under future climate change shows promise for guiding effective and sustainable interventions to adapt to climate change.

Berihun, ML; Tsunekawa, A; Haregeweyn, N; Tsubo, M; Fenta, AA; Ebabu, K; Bayabil, HK; Dile, YT

Predicting runoff and sediment responses to climate-resilient land use and management scenarios

Environmental Science And Pollution Research

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-27452-w

Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO(2)) exerts significant influence on nutrient requirement in plant. The investigation of C:N:P ratios in major cropping soils is important for managing nutrient balance and maximizing their use efficiency in future farming systems. This study aimed to examine the effect of eCO(2) on the C: N:P ratios in different plant parts among soybean cultivars. Twenty-four soybean cultivars were planted in open top chambers at two CO2 concentrations (390 and 550 ppm) and sampled at the initial pod filling stage (R5) and the full maturity stage (R8). The C, N and P concentrations in root, stem, leaf and seed were determined. Elevated CO2 decreased the N concentrations in stem (-5.1%) and leaf (-3.2%) at R5, and in root (-24%), stem (-25%) and seed (-6.2%) at R8, resulting in a significant decrease of C:N ratio in the corresponding parts. The P concentration was significantly increased in root (6.0%), stem (7.9%) and leaf (16%) at R5, and in root (2.6%), stem (29%) and seed (16%) at R8 across 24 cultivars, leading to a decrease in the C:P ratio. Elevated CO2 significantly decreased the N:P ratio in root (-4.5%), stem (-12%) and leaf (-17%) at R5, and in root (-26%), stem (-57%) and seed (-22%) at R8. Furthermore, the response of C:N:P ratios to eCO(2) varied greatly among soybean cultivars leading to significant CO2 x cultivar interactions. Nitrogen, but not P was the limiting factor for the soybean plants grown in Mollisols under eCO(2). The considerable variation in the C:N:P ratios among cultivars in response to eCO(2) indicates a potential improvement in soybean adaptability to climate change via selection new cultivars. Cultivars SN22 and ZH4 that did not considerably altered the C:N and C:P ratios in response to eCO(2) are likely the optimal genomes in soybean breeding programs for eCO(2) adaption. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Li, YS; Yu, ZH; Yang, SC; Wang, GH; Liu, XB; Wang, CY; Xie, ZH; Jin, J

Impact of elevated CO2 on C:N:P ratio among soybean cultivars

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133784

Rural people, particularly in developing nations, rely on livestock as a key source of income. In Pakistan, rural people depend profoundly on buffalo, cows, sheep, and goats to earn their live-lihood. The systems of agricultural production are at risk because of the negative effects of climate change. It badly affects production and quality of milk and meat, animal health, pro-ductivity, breeding, feed, and rangelands of livestock production. Climate change risks assessment and adaptation are required to minimize losses from these effects, which are not just technical but also socioeconomically significant. Hence, based on data collected from 1080 livestock herders using a multistage sampling technique in Punjab, Pakistan this study aims to assess perceived impact of climate change on livestock production and to assess coping strategies. In addition, determinants of adaptation strategies and their effects on livestock production was also estimated. Binary Logistic Regression was used to identify the drivers of adaptation strategies. In addition, Multi Group Analysis (MGA) in Partial Least Squares Path Modelling (PLS-PM) was applied to compare adapter and non-adapter of climate change adaptation strategies. Findings indicated that there are spread of various diseases to livestock due to adverse effects of climatic variability. There was reduction in the availability of the livestock's feed. Moreover, competition of water and land resources of livestock was also increasing. Low production efficiency resulted in decline of milk yield and meat production. Likewise, mortality of livestock, increased in still births, reduction in reproductive performance, decline in animal fertility, longevity, and general fitness, decreased birthing rates, rises in age at foremost calving in beef cattle was also prevailing. There were different adaptation policies used by farmers to handle with climate change and these were influenced by several demographic, socioeconomic, and agronomic aspects. Findings indicated that nexus of risk perception, adaptation plans and their determinants are beneficial to reduce the consequences of climatic variability and it improve the wellbeing of the herders. Risk manage-ment system may be created to protect livestock against losses caused by extreme weather events by providing awareness regarding influence of climate change on livestock. Easy and cheaper credit should be provided to the farmers to manage with the vulnerabilities of climate change.

Usman, M; Ali, A; Rosak-Szyrocka, J; Pilar, L; Baig, SA; Akram, R; Wudil, AH

Climate change and livestock herders wellbeing in Pakistan: Does nexus of risk perception, adaptation and their drivers matter?

Heliyon

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e16983

An increase of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in agricultural soils does not only have positive effects on soil quality and soil resilience but may also contribute to climate change mitigation. The '4 per 1000' (4p1000) initiative launched at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris aims at increasing global SOC stocks in 0-40 cm depth by annually 4 parts per thousand in order to compensate the increase of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. In this study we analysed the feasibility of this target for agricultural soils in Bavaria, Southeast Germany. Assuming a total organic carbon (OC) amount of 276 Tg currently stored in the upper 40 cm of agricultural soils in Bavaria (cropland and grassland), the 4p1000 goal corresponds to an annual carbon (C) sequestration of 1.1 Tg. Based on a site-specific analysis of present soil management, we developed spatially explicit C sequestration scenarios including five promising management practices (cover cropping, improved crop rotation, organic farming, agroforestry and conversion of arable land to grassland). The results revealed that the 4p1000 target is not feasible for Bavaria. The total potential of the five practices to sequester C resulted in increases in 0.3 to 0.4 Tg OC per year corresponding to around l parts per thousand of the present SOC stocks. Expansion of cover crops and agroforestry were identified as most promising options to increase SOC in agricultural soils. Although only around 1.5% of Bavaria's yearly GHG emissions would be compensated, this represents an essential contribution to climate change mitigation. Besides the need to develop new incentive systems (particularly for agroforestry), implementation of networks including farms and/or field trials that demonstrate improved soil management practices would be required to inform farmers and other stakeholders about the benefits of such practices. To maintain a resilient agriculture that withstands more extreme weather conditions in the future, healthy soils are needed. We therefore conclude that expected positive effects of a SOC stock increase on nutrient and water storage, soil erosion, biodiversity and food security are crucial for climate change adaptation.

Wiesmeier, M; Mayer, S; Burmeister, J; Hübner, R; Kögel-Knabner, I

Feasibility of the 4 per 1000 initiative in Bavaria: A reality check of agricultural soil management and carbon sequestration scenarios

Geoderma

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2020.114333

As the frequency and severity of extreme heat increases with global climate change, residential buildings play a key role in defining personal temperature exposures. In recent decades, residential buildings have become the focus of energy efficiency and cost savings programs and initiatives. Residential buildings can also mitigate high indoor temperatures and heat-related health impacts, but these heat adaptation interventions have not been fully evaluated for their potential energy, climate, and health benefits. We aimed to quantify the health and climate benefits of energy and indoor temperature reductions that result from heat adaptation strategies applied to residential (specifically single-family detached built between 1990 and 2010) buildings in 10 U.S. cities. Building energy models were used to simulate energy reduction retrofits, including changing roof reflectivity, adding window overhangs, improving window properties, and roof/wall insulation, as well as the addition of shade trees and indoor phase change materials. We used the building simulation results to estimate attendant reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) and criteria air pollution (AP) emissions from the electrical grid, and used the damage estimates to evaluate the resulting climate and health benefits. Under light and deep retrofit scenarios, respectively, we estimate that the simulated heat adaptation retrofits in this subset of relatively new buildings have the potential to yield $1.10 or $1.57 billion in direct utilities savings. There is an additional $462.9 million ($301.3-$909.9 million) or $692.8 million ($442.6 million-$1.385 billion) in climate and health benefits, due to avoided GHG and AP emissions. Put simply, the climate and health benefits may account for an additional 42-44% of the direct utility savings, on average. Climate and health benefits were generally highest for adaptations simulated in hot climates (Dallas, TX and Houston, TX) or in areas with dirtier fuel mixes (Chicago, IL and Philadelphia, PA). When climate and health savings are included, the payback periods of these interventions can decrease by nearly half. We also discuss the potential additional health benefits of reducing indoor temperatures during extreme heat. These significant savings from avoided climate and public health damages should be factored into climate change adaptation decision making by stakeholders and policymakers.

Williams, AA; Baniassadi, A; Gonzalez, PI; Buonocore, JJ; Cedeno-Laurent, JG; Samuelson, HW

Health and Climate Benefits of Heat Adaptation Strategies in Single-Family Residential Buildings

Frontiers In Sustainable Cities

https://doi.org/10.3389/frsc.2020.561828

Introduction: The intersection of health and climate change is often absent or under-represented in sub-national government strategies. This analysis of the literature, using a new methodological framework, highlights priority focus areas for a sub-national government response to health and climate change, using the Western Cape (WC) province of South Africa as a case study. Methods: A methodological framework was created to conduct a review of priority focus areas relevant for subnational governments. The framework encompassed the establishment of a Project Steering Group consisting of relevant, sub-national stakeholders (e. g. provincial officials, public and environmental health specialists and academics); an analysis of local climatic projections as well as an analysis of global, national and sub-national health risk factors and impacts. Results: Globally, the discussion of health and climate change adaptation strategies in sub-national, or provincial government is often limited. For the case study presented, multiple health risk factors were identified. WC climatic projections include a warmer and potentially drier future with an increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. WC government priority focus areas requiring further research on health risk factors include: population migration and environmental refugees, land use change, violence and human conflict and vulnerable groups. WC government priority focus areas for further research on health impacts include: mental ill-health, non-communicable diseases, injuries, poisonings (e. g. pesticides), food and nutrition insecurity-related diseases, water-and food-borne diseases and reproductive health. These areas are currently under-addressed, or not addressed at all, in the current provincial climate change strategy. Conclusions: Sub-national government adaptation strategies often display limited discussion on the health and climate change intersect. The methodological framework presented in this case study can be globally utilized by other sub-national governments for decision-making and development of climate change and health adaptation strategies. Additionally, due to the broad range of sectoral issues identified, a primary recommendation from this study is that sub-national governments internationally should consider a health and climate change in all policies approach when developing adaptation and mitigation strategies to address climate change.

Godsmark, CN; Irlam, J; van der Merwe, F; New, M; Rother, HA

Priority focus areas for a sub-national response to climate change and health: A South African provincial case study

Environment International

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.11.035

Climate change and sea-level rise (SLR) are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of coastal flood events, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructure. While regional climate adaptation investments can provide substantive flood protection, existing plans often neglect uncertainty in future climate conditions and adaptation performance, consequently neglecting the option value of flexibly implementing proposed projects. Addressing this gap, we develop and employ a generalizable real options analysis (ROA) valuation framework that considers how uncertainty in adaptation project costs, SLR, flood severity, and flood losses inform the full range of adaptation performance outcomes. We further propose and apply a novel, computationally efficient flood loss sampling algorithm to estimate the consequences of randomly arriving coastal flood events. We apply this ROA framework to assess the option value of flexibly timing adaptation investments over time, investigating an adaptation pathway proposed by the City of Boston from the perspective of the regional transit system manager. Our results suggest that flexible implementation can provide significant option value in the near- to mid-term (>30 years), with the highest option values under low-probability, high-consequence scenarios. Our results also suggest adaptation pathway performance in the latter half of the 21st century is most sensitive to uncertainty in SLR, flood loss estimates, and flood frequency, underscoring the importance of uncertainty quantification in the long-term valuation of adaptation investments.

Martello, MV; Whittle, AJ; Oddo, PC; de Neufville, R

Real options analysis for valuation of climate adaptation pathways with application to transit infrastructure

Risk Analysis

https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.14218

All stakeholders, especially households that depend on agriculture, must come up with every avenue available to improve farm productivity in order to raise yields due to the constraints posed by climate change on food production systems. Sufficient increments in yields will address the challenges of food insecurity and malnutrition among vulnerable households, especially smallholder ones. Yield increases can be achieved sustainably through the deployment of various Climate Smart Integrated Pest Management (CS-IPM) practices, including good agronomic practices. Therefore, CS-IPM practices could be essential in ensuring better household welfare, including food security and nutrition. With such impact empirically documented, appropriate policy guidance can be realized in favor of CS-IPM practices at scale, thus helping to achieve sustainable food security and food systems. However, to this end, there is yet limited evidence on the real impact of CS-IPM practices on the various core social welfare household parameters, for instance, food security, household incomes, gender roles, and nutrition, among others. We contribute to this body of literature in this paper by reviewing various empirical evidence that analyzes the impact of respective CS-IPM practices on key social welfare aspects of smallholder farm households in developing countries around the world. The review finds that CS-IPM practices do increase households' adaptation to climate change, thus enhancing soil and crop productivity, thereby ensuring food and nutrition security, as well as increasing market participation of CS-IPM adopters, thus leading to increased household incomes, asset accumulation, and subsequently better household food and nutrition security via direct own-farm produce consumption and market purchases using income. CS-IPM practices also enhance access to climate-related information, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, conserve biodiversity, and enhance dietary diversity through improved crop and livestock varieties and also reduce variable farm production costs. Therefore, there would be multiple welfare gains if CS-IPM practices were scaled up.

Sekabira, H; Tepa-Yotto, GT; Kaweesa, Y; Simbeko, G; Tamò, M; Agboton, C; Tahidu, OD; Abdoulaye, T

Impact of CS-IPM on Key Social Welfare Aspects of Smallholder Farmers' Livelihoods

Climate

https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050097

Climate change is a significant threat to agriculture-related livelihoods, and its impacts amplify prevailing gender inequalities. Climate information services (CIS) are crucial enablers in adapting to climate change and managing climate-related risks by smallholder farmers. Even though various gender groups have distinct preferences, understandings, and uses of CIS, which affect adaptation decisions differently, there is little research on gender perspectives of CIS. This study employs a novel intra-household survey of 156 married couples to evaluate the gender-differentiated effects of CIS access on the adoption of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) technologies in Kenya. The findings reveal gender differences in access to CIS, with husbands having significantly more access to early warning systems and advisory services on adaptation. In contrast, wives had better access to weather forecasts. About 38% of wives perceived that CIS meets their needs, compared to 30% of husbands. As for CIS dissemination pathways, husbands preferred extension officers, print media, television, and local leaders, whereas wives preferred radio and social groups. Recursive bivariate probit analysis shows that trust in CIS, a bundle of CIS dissemination pathways, access to credit, and membership in a mixed-gender social group, affected access to CIS for both genders. Access to early warning systems and advisory services positively affected decisions to adopt CSA by both genders. Still, access to seasonal forecasts influenced husbands' decisions to adopt CSA but not wives. Besides, there were gender differences in how CIS affected each CSA technology based on gendered access to resources and roles and responsibilities in a household. It is necessary to disseminate CIS through gender-sensitive channels that can satisfy the needs and preferences of different gender groups to encourage the adoption of climate-smart technologies.

Ngigi, MW; Muange, EN

Access to climate information services and climate-smart agriculture in Kenya: a gender-based analysis

Climatic Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03445-5

There is growing evidence that climate change is linked to adverse mental health outcomes, with both direct and indirect impacts already being felt globally, including within the United Kingdom (UK). With the UK parliament tasked with passing legislation to mitigate against and adapt to climate change, it is well placed to take a lead in implementing policies that reduce the impact of climate change on mental health and even provide mental health benefits (e.g., by increasing access to green space). The extent to which the UK parliament considers the relationship between climate change and mental health in its decision-making was previously unknown. We report, through quantitative thematic analysis of the UK Hansard database, that the UK parliament has only infrequently made links between climate change and mental health. Where links have been made, the primary focus of the speeches were around flooding and anxiety. Key mental health impacts of climate change reported in the academic literature, such as high temperature and suicides, or experiences of eco-anxiety, were found to be missing entirely. Further, policies suggested in UK parliament to minimise the impact of climate change on mental health were focused on pushing adaptation measures such as flood defences rather than climate mitigation, indicating potential missed opportunities for effective policies with co-benefits for tackling climate change and mental health simultaneously. Therefore, this research suggests a need to raise awareness for UK policymakers of the costs of climate inaction on mental health, and potential co-benefits of climate action on mental health. Our results provide insight into where links have and have not been made to date, to inform targeted awareness raising and ultimately equip policymakers to protect the UK from the increasingly large impacts of climate change on mental health.

Pirkle, LT; Jennings, N; Vercammen, A; Lawrance, EL

Current understanding of the impact of climate change on mental health within UK parliament

Frontiers In Public Health

https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.913857

Greening and green regeneration have been developed as a major strategy for improving quality of life in cities and neighbourhoods. Greening policies and projects are being applied at both the citywide and the neigh-bourhood level for various reasons, such as adaptation to climate change and the improvement of housing and living conditions as well as wellbeing and health. Urban policies, plans, and programmes have increasingly employed greening strategies to make urban neighbourhoods more attractive, to improve quality of life, and to provide residents with recreational space. At the same time, greening is increasingly exploited by market -oriented regeneration and construction strategies. The new critical debates on eco-gentrification-or distribu-tional, procedural, and interactional injustices-are discussing emerging conflicts or trade-offs between green regeneration and the social or housing market impacts, as well as analysing the role of greening and green regeneration with respect to the (re)production of socio-spatial inequalities and injustices.Set against this background, our paper provides a comparative analysis of two cases-L acute accent odz acute accent Stare Polesie (Poland) and Leipzig's inner east (Germany)-and has a threefold purpose: first, it seeks to analyse in-terconnections between greening policies and justice concerns. To operationalise the aforementioned in-terconnections, we will, second, develop an operational model that looks at interconnections as a process and applies a justice perspective that focuses on a multidimensional, intersectional, relational, and context-and policy-sensitive understanding of justice. Third, the paper seeks to detect how a contrasting comparison can help us to come to a better and more comprehensive understanding of the interconnections between green regen-eration and justice. The study itself builds on primary research about the two cases from earlier projects.

Haase, A; Koprowska, K; Borgström, S

Green regeneration for more justice? An analysis of the purpose, implementation, and impacts of greening policies from a justice perspective in Lodz Stare Polesie (Poland) and Leipzig?s inner east (Germany)

Environmental Science & Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2022.08.001

Since 1981, water allocation in Chile has been based on a water use rights (WURs) market, with limited regulatory and supervisory mechanisms. The volume to be granted as permanent and eventual WURs is calculated from streamflow records, if stream gauge data are available, or from hydrologic parameter transfer from gauged to ungauged catchments, usually with less than 50 years of record. To test the performance of this allocation system, while analyzing the long-term natural variability in water resources, we investigated a 400 year-long (1590-2015) tree-ring reconstruction of runoff and historical water rights for Perquilauquen at Quella catchment, a tributary to the Maule River in Central Chile (35 degrees S-36 degrees 305). Furthermore, we assess how the current legislation would perform under a projected climate scenario, based on historical climate simulations of runoff calibrated against observed data, and future projections. Our analyses indicate that the allocation methodology currently applied by the Water Authority in Chile is very sensitive to the time window of data used, which leads to an underestimation of variability and long-term trends. According to the WURs database provided by the Chilean Water Directorate, WURs at Perquilauquen at Quella are already over-allocated. Considering regional climate projections, this condition will be exacerbated in the future. Furthermore, serious problems regarding the access and quality of information on already-granted WURs and actual water usage have been diagnosed, which further encumber environmental strategies to deal with and adapt to climate change. We emphasize the urgent need for a review and revision of current water allocation methodologies and water law in Chile, which are not concordant with the dynamics and non-stationarity of hydrological processes. Water scarcity and water governance are two of the key issues to be faced by Chile in the Anthropocene.

Barría, P; Rojas, M; Moraga, P; Murñoz, A; Bozkurt, D; Alvarez-Garreton, C

Anthropocene and streamflow: Long-term perspective of streamflow variability and water rights

Elementa-Science Of The Anthropocene

https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.340

Carbon and latent heat fluxes can be simulated with different model strategies to fulfil different research purposes. In this study we compared four different model concepts: artificial neural networks (ANN), fuzzy logic (FL), an index model (IM, using light use efficiency and water use efficiency) and the process based model FORGRO. The models were tested on a 2-year data set of carbon and water fluxes of a Douglas-fir forest, 1 year before and 1 year after a thinning. The potentials of the model concepts for application for four research goals were assessed in relation to the obtained results and in a more general context: measurement fitting, insight into the importance of processes and mechanisms, simulation of climate change effects and up-scaling of forest responses to regional scale. For measurement fitting ANN and FL showed the highest potentials, mainly because of their high number of fitting parameters. IM and FORGRO showed a satisfactory model performance, although systematic errors were detectable. Insight into forest ecosystem functioning was difficult with ANN, but FL, IM and FORGRO showed clear interpretability of the effects of the thinning in terms of ecosystem functioning. FORGRO has the highest potentials for reliable estimation of effects of climate change on forests like Speuld, although the incorporation of adaptation to climate change in the model formulation is a major problem unsolved. For up-scaling FL and ANN can be used effectively if they are parameterised on a range of forests rather than one forest as in this study. IM showed potentials for linking the model parameters to variables characterising forest ecosystems like leaf area index, and thereby for large-scale applications. The discussion showed that the application of a set of totally different models can increase our knowledge of forest functioning. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

van Wijk, MT; Bouten, W; Verstraten, JM

Comparison of different modelling strategies for simulating gas exchange of a Douglas-fir forest

Ecological Modelling

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(02)00174-6

Many studies have examined the impact of climatic variability on agricultural productivity, although an understanding of these effects on farmland values and their relationship to farmers' decisions to adapt and modify their land-use practices remains nascent in developing nations. We estimated the impacts of the deviation in our study year's (2012) temperature and precipitation patterns from medium-term (1980-2011) climatic patterns on farmland values in Pakistan. This was accomplished by employing a modified form of a Ricardian regression model. We also examined farmers' perceptions of climate change during this period, as well as their perceptions of climate change impacts on farm productivity, in addition to past and anticipated farm adaptation strategies. Our results indicate that positive temperature deviation from the medium-term mean - indicative of climatic change - affects farmland values in Pakistan. Deviation in annual cumulative precipitation conversely appears to have no significant impact. Estimates of the marginal impact of temperature deviation suggested a slight but negative linear relationship with farmland values. The location of farms in areas where farmers can avail financial or extension services conversely had a positive impact on farmland values, as did the availability of irrigation facilities. Our analysis of farmers' perceptions of climate change and their consequent adaptation behavior indicated a relatively high degree of awareness of climatic variability that influenced a number of proactive and future anticipated farm adaptation strategies. Examples included increased use of irrigation and farm enterprise diversification, as well as land-use change, including shifting from agriculture into alternative land uses. National policy in Pakistan underscores the importance of maintaining a productive rural agricultural sector. Our findings consequently highlight the importance of appropriate adaptation strategies to maintain both farm productivity and farmland values in much of Pakistan. The implications of increased extension and financial services to enhance farmers' potential for climate change adaptation are discussed.

Arshad, M; Kächele, H; Krupnik, TJ; Amjath-Babu, TS; Aravindakshan, S; Abbas, A; Mehmood, Y; Müller, K

Climate variability, farmland value, and farmers' perceptions of climate change: implications for adaptation in rural Pakistan

International Journal Of Sustainable Development And World Ecology

https://doi.org/10.1080/13504509.2016.1254689

In the Kuchlak Sub-Basin (Pakistan), groundwater is overexploited, resulting in growing stress on groundwater resources. The water table level has declined rapidly due to intensive pumping. Artificial recharge methods and good management strategies are vital for the sustainable production of groundwater resources. Managed aquifer recharge is an artificial way of recharging the subsurface aquifers using surplus surface water, treated wastewater, and stormwater. It is a potential strategy for increasing freshwater supply and adapting to climate change. The present study proposes a method to delineate potential zones for MAR suitability in the Kuchlak Sub-Basin. INOWAS, a web-based tool, is utilized for narrowing down the available MAR techniques based on the hydrogeologic parameter and objectives of the study area. A geographic information system (GIS) coupled with the multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), commonly known as GIS-MCDA, is used to develop the MAR suitability map. Six criterion maps, including geology, land use, slope analysis, drainage density, soil, and rainfall, were created in ArcGIS for suitability mapping. The criterion maps are ranked and weighted based on their relative contribution to the groundwater recharge and published literature using the Multi Influence Factor (MIF) method. The final suitability map was developed by overlaying all the criterion maps using a weighted linear combination (WLC) technique. The MAR suitability map was divided into five zones, namely, very high, high, moderate, very low, and low. The unsuitable zones reflect the urban and slope constraints that reduce surface infiltration. The suitability map reveals that 45% of the Kuchlak Sub-Basin exists in a very high-high suitability zone, 33% in moderate, and 17% in a very low-low suitability zone, while 5% of the study area was unsuitable due to the urban and slope constraints. The MAR suitability map developed in this study can serve as a basis for conducting a focused analysis of MAR implementation. Furthermore, the technique and results of this study may aid in mapping MAR suitability in any arid or semi-arid region.

Sardar, H; Akhter, G; Ge, YG; Haider, SA

Delineation of potential managed aquifer recharge sites of Kuchlak sub-basin, Balochistan, using remote sensing and GIS

Frontiers In Environmental Science

https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.916504

Climate change impacts on hydrological processes can affect reservoir operational performance. Hence, the reservoir operation model, based on historical climate conditions, may not guarantee sustainable water resources management in the future. To enable stakeholders to design reliable adaptation strategies, this study aims to propose a cascading framework to quantify the impacts of climate change on the operational performance and sustainability of a multipurpose reservoir. The Danjiangkou Reservoir (DJKR), which serves as the water source for the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China, was selected as a case study. To achieve the aforementioned aims, bias-corrected simulations from 13 global climate models (GCMs) were first input into five hydrological models [i.e., one data-driven [deep belief network (DBN)], three conceptual [SIMHYD, HBV, and Xin'anjiang (XAJ)], and one physically-based [variable infiltration capacity (VIC)]. The simulated reservoir inflows were then fed into a 10-day reservoir simulation model where DJKR operation followed the designed operating rules to evaluate reservoir operational performance. Finally, a data envelopment analysis (DEA) model was proposed to assess reservoir sustainability under both historical (1976-2005) and future (2021-2050) climate conditions. The results show that the combination of the GCM ensembles and the SIMHYD, HBV, XAJ, and VIC models exhibit similar growth patterns in the reservoir inflow and operational benefits for the future period. However, the DBN model produces consistent decreases in most cases, which may be attributed to its inability to generate accurate estimates of extreme events. The results indicate that hydrological models may be extensively utilized in decision making with greater confidence, and the data-driven model should be interpreted with caution when used in hydrological climate change impact studies. The efficiency metrics suggest that decision makers should focus more on increasing operational benefits, which can subsequently enhance reservoir sustainability. Overall, the framework proposed in this study provides a foundation for evaluating the reservoir sustainability and adaptability to climate change from water managers' perspective.

Xu, WX; Chen, J; Su, TH; Kim, JS; Gu, L; Lee, JH

Cascading Model-Based Framework for the Sustainability Assessment of a Multipurpose Reservoir in a Changing Climate

Journal Of Water Resources Planning And Management

https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001501

The economy of the semiarid region of the Argentine Pampas is based mainly on agriculture, so climate change is a fact that may have great influence on this type of activity. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate future climate scenarios and the responses of hydrological variables such as precipitation, actual (ETreal) and potential evapotranspiration (ETc), and recharge rate. Climate change scenarios were based on temperature and precipitation variations predicted by CMIP5. Four representative concentrations pathways (RCP) were considered according to different greenhouse emissions to the atmosphere for the nearby future until the end of the twenty-first century (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). Furthermore, one more scenario called RCP0.0 was considered, which is related to the actual climate conditions and represents the base line. In the study area, nitrogen (N) fertilization is a widely used practice to increase crop yields. This work assesses the impact of future climate on soil water fluxes and N compounds fate based on numerical simulations carried out with HYDRUS 1D. Actual evapotranspiration is going to increase between 1 and 6% from low to high climate-change scenarios. Although an increase in precipitation is also expected during all months of the year, there are periods when water availability will not be enough to supply the new potential evapotranspiration demand. The worst case is RCP8.5, where the ETreal/ETc ratio is expected to decline by 4%. Annual recharge is expected to decrease by 2.5% in the RCP2.6 scenario, while the rest of the scenarios shown positive trends. N leachate in the form of nitrates showed an increase of 2.8% in the RCP4.5 scenario which was also the one with the highest recharge rate raise. The use of a mathematical model as a predictive tool in soil water fluxes and fertilizers use is essential for planning the sustainable management of agroecology adapted to climate changes.

Scherger, LE; Valdes-Abellan, J; Zanello, V; Lexow, C

Projecting Climate Change Effect on Soil Water Fluxes and Urea Fertilizer Fate in the Semiarid Pampas of Argentina

Earth Systems And Environment

https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00289-4

Over the last five decades, there has been a decline of rural communities in Taiwan due to urbanization expansion. In the past 10 years, the central government has implemented the Rural Regeneration Project (RRP) aimed at revitalization and sustainable development in rural Taiwan. During the project's implementation, communities have faced several disasters as a result of climate change-induced extreme rainfall events. Perceptions and adaptation practices of climate change-induced extreme events are critical to community sustainability and resilience. The gap between perceived and actual risks that communities experience creates challenges for policy-makers in achieving sustainability goals. This study aims to evaluate the perceived climate change-induced flooding hazard perceptions compared to the scientific projection and actual hazard events in 287 rural communities implementing the RRP. This study revealed consistency in risk perception, in that communities facing high potential exposure to extreme rainfall showed higher awareness of various impacts of climate change. However, when comparing climate actions, communities exposed to low-potential hazard areas had a relatively higher degree of recognition of the benefits of adaptation to climate change. Moreover, 59 rural communities with low awareness and exposed to high potentials of extreme events were widely distributed among hills of western, southern, and northern Taiwan, where compound disasters such as mudslides can occur. This research suggests that there is a need to integrate climate change planning and work with communities to bridge the gap between perceived and actual climate risks. In particular, capacity training, counseling services, and implementation of adaptation practices should be integrated into institutional planning and management for providing assistance in disaster prevention, relief, and post-event restoration; also, encouraging climate actions can directly improve community resilience toward climate change. While investing in the sustainable development of rural communities is largely based on revitalizing economic development, this study revealed the link to ensure resilience and social-ecological sustainability in rural communities under climate change impacts.

Lai, CH; Liao, PC; Chen, SH; Wang, YC; Cheng, CW; Wu, CF

Risk Perception and Adaptation of Climate Change: An Assessment of Community Resilience in Rural Taiwan

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su13073651

Reliable secular time series of essential climatic variables are a fundamental element for the assessment of vulnerability, impact and adaptation to climate change. Here, we implement a readily portable procedure for building an upgradable long-term homogeneous climate dataset using monthly and daily observations of temperature and precipitation over a given area of interest, exemplified here with Abruzzo, a region in Central Italy characterized by complex orography. We process the dataset according to a preliminary ranking of stations based on data quantity and quality, and we exploit the Climatol algorithm for inhomogeneity correction. The corrected time series show trends in broad agreement with external databases (CRU, Berkeley Earth, E-OBS), and highlight the importance of relying on a local network for a better representation of gradients and variability over the territory. We estimate that maximum (TX) and minimum temperature (TN) increased by similar to 1.6 and similar to 2.2 degrees C/century, respectively, over the period 1930-2019, while in the recent decades 1980-2019 we found an accelerated trend of similar to 5.7 and similar to 3.9 degrees C/century. Precipitation (RR) decreased by similar to 10%/century in 1930-2019, while it has been increasing at a rate of similar to 26%/century in 1980-2019. The Koppen-Geiger climate classification is sensitive to the increase of precipitation in the recent decades, which is attributable to decreased summer precipitation overcompensated by more rain in late spring and early autumn. The cold climate types are retreating upwards along the slopes of the mountain ranges. Over the period 1980-2019, extreme values are also displaying significant trends. Every 2 years, there is one less frost day (TN <0 degrees C) and one more summer day (TX >25 degrees C) in the Apennines area, while there is one more tropical night (TN >20 degrees C) in the Adriatic coastal area. Precipitation extremes are increasing, especially along the coast, with rain accumulated in the rainiest days increasing at a rate of 1-2%/year.

Curci, G; Guijarro, JA; Di Antonio, L; Di Bacco, M; Di Lena, B; Scorzini, AR

Building a local climate reference dataset: Application to the Abruzzo region (Central Italy), 1930-2019

International Journal Of Climatology

https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7081

Effects of global warming on agriculture have attracted lots of attention; however, agricultural response to climate change has been hardly documented in alpine regions. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has a low agricultural portion, but it is an increasing minority, which plays an important role in regional food security due to growing population. The region of Brahmaputra River and its two tributaries in Tibet Autonomous Region (BRIT) is the main alpine agricultural area in the TP. Rapid warming has substantially affected agro-climate resources there and altered cropland pattern as well as cropping intensity. In this study, we explored how climate warming affected cropping intensity in past decades in BRTT. The potentially spatial distributions of single and double cropping systems in different decades (1970s, 19805, 1990s and 2000s) were simulated based on a cropping suitability model, considering climatic, terrain and water factors. The results showed a significant increase of cropping intensity in some regions, in response to climate warming. The area suitable for single cropping increased from 19 110 km(2) in 1970s to 19 980 km(2) in 2000s, expanding from the downstream valleys of Lhasa River and Nyang Qu River of the tributaries of Brahmaputra to upstream valleys. The area suitable for double cropping gradually increased from 9 km(2) in 1970s to 2015 km(2) in 2000s, expanding from the lower reaches of Brahmaputra River in Lhoka Prefecture to the upper ones, as well as the Lhasa River tributaries. The upper limit elevation suitable for single cropping rose vertically from 5001 m above sea level (ASL) to 5032m ASL from 1970s to 2000s, meanwhile that of double cropping rose from 3608 m ASL to 3813 m ASL. Overall, increased cropland area and cropping intensity due to climatic warming could increase food production in BRIT to some extent. Further investigation about potential uncertain effects from warming is still needed for regional agricultural adaption to climate change. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Zhang, GL; Dong, JW; Zhou, CP; Xu, XL; Wang, M; Ouyang, H; Xiao, XM

Increasing cropping intensity in response to climate Warming in Tibetan Plateau, China

Field Crops Research

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2012.11.021

In 2045, Nepal aims to be carbon neutral by reducing its net emissions in various sectors, most especially in agriculture. Environmental conservation agriculture (ECA) is proven to mitigate climate change effects; however, more efforts are needed to increase its uptake in Nepal. This study, therefore, identified factors that influence ECA continuation among farmers in Namobuddha municipality-one of Nepal's central hubs for organic farming. Using binary logistic regression, seven ECA drivers were identified, with the rise of sea temperature or extremely hot days (under perceived climate change effects) and incentives or subsidies from the government decreasing the odds of ECA continuation among Namobuddha farmers. Meanwhile, the five positive ECA drivers arranged in decreasing odds ratio are: 1) ECA interest; 2) local market/hat bazar (periodical open-market) (under selling place of ECA products); 3) resource-use decision-making (under women decision-making in ECA); 4) ameliorating pests/ diseases (under climate change adaptation); and 5) perception that ECA is economically, socially, and environmen-tally sustainable. This study also reaffirms the knowledge gap between farmers' understanding of ECA and its actual climate change mitigation capabilities, which was also observed in previous studies that identified ECA drivers. The strategic dissemination of information about ECA is thus recommended to further increase farmers' interest in ECA, which was identified as the number one factor driving ECA continuation. Communication of ECA's economic, environmental, and social sustainability is also critical, as farmers are still mostly unaware of this matter. In terms of women empowerment, this study suggests engaging women more in resource-use de-cision-making (i.e., technology, labor, energy usage, etc.), which could also increase women's ECA continuation. Lastly, this research also found that the lack of knowledge, training, and opportunities remains the primary obstacle to women's engagement in ECA, whereas profitability, better livelihood, and resource availability serve as the main motivators.

Maharjan, KL; Singh, M; Gonzalvo, CM

Drivers of environmental conservation agriculture and women farmer empowerment in Namobuddha municipality, Nepal

Journal Of Agriculture And Food Research

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafr.2023.100631

Within CONNECTING Nature, we are dealing with developing innovative nature-based solutions (NBS) for climate change adaptation, health and well-being, social cohesion and sustainable economic development in European cities. In order to enable learning by comparing and generating new knowledge from multiple NBS related studies, a novel data and knowledge base is needed which requires a specified methodological approach for its development. This paper provides conceptual and methodological context and techniques for constructing such a data and knowledge base that will systematically support the process of NBS monitoring and assessment: A methodology presents the comprehensive, multi-step approach to the NBS data and knowledge development that helps to guide work and influence the quality of an information included. The paper describes the methodology and main steps/phases for developing a large data and knowledge base of NBS that will allow further systematic review. The suggested methodology explains how to build NBS related databases from the conceptualization and requirements phases through to implementation and maintenance. In this regard, such a methodology is iterative, with extensive NBS stakeholders' and end-user's involvement that are packaged with reusable templates or deliverables offering a good opportunity for success when used by practitioners and other end-users. The NBS data and knowledge base gathers information about different NBS models and generations into one easy-to-find, easy-to-use place and provides detailed descriptions of each of the 1490 NBS cases from urban centers in Europe. The data and knowledge base thus helps users identify the best and most appropriated NBS model/type for addressing the particular goals and, at the same time, considers the local context and potential. The data obtained can be used for the further meta-analysis by applying statistics or searching for specific sample cases and thus enables to generate and expand the knowledge from multiple NBS related studies, in both qualitative and quantitative ways. (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V.

Dushkova, D; Haase, D

Methodology for development of a data and knowledge base for learning from existing nature-based solutions in Europe: The CONNECTING Nature project

Methodsx

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mex.2020.101096

This study evaluates climate change impacts on water resources using an ensemble of six regional climate models (RCMs)-global climate models (GCMs) in the Dano catchment (Burkina Faso). The applied climate datasets were performed in the framework of the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-Africa) project. After evaluation of the historical runs of the climate models' ensemble, a statistical bias correction (empirical quantile mapping) was applied to daily precipitation. Temperature and bias corrected precipitation data from the ensemble of RCMs-GCMs was then used as input for the Water flow and balance Simulation Model (WaSiM) to simulate water balance components. The mean hydrological and climate variables for two periods (1971-2000 and 2021-2050) were compared to assess the potential impact of climate change on water resources up to the middle of the 21st century under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The results indicate (i) a clear signal of temperature increase of about 0.1 to 2.6 degrees C for all members of the RCM-GCM ensemble; (ii) high uncertainty about how the catchment precipitation will evolve over the period 2021-2050; (iii) the applied bias correction method only affected the magnitude of the climate change signal; (iv) individual climate models results lead to opposite discharge change signals; and (v) the results for the RCM-GCM ensemble are too uncertain to give any clear direction for future hydrological development. Therefore, potential in-crease and decrease in future discharge have to be considered in climate change adaptation strategies in the catchment. The results further underline on the one hand the need for a larger ensemble of projections to properly estimate the impacts of climate change on water resources in the catchment and on the other hand the high uncertainty associated with climate projections for the West African region. A water-energy budget analysis provides further insight into the behavior of the catchment.

Yira, Y; Diekkrüger, B; Steup, G; Bossa, AY

Impact of climate change on hydrological conditions in a tropical West African catchment using an ensemble of climate simulations

Hydrology And Earth System Sciences

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2143-2017

Climate change impacts increase pressure on challenges to sustainability and the developmental needs of cities. Conventional, hard adaptation measures are often associated with high costs, inflexibility and conflicting interests related to the dense urban fabric, and ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) has emerged as a potentially cost-efficient, comprehensive, and multifunctional approach. This paper reviews and systematises research on urban EbA. We propose an analytical framework that draws on theory from ecosystem services, climate change adaptation and sustainability science. It conceptualises EbA in terms of five linked components: ecological structures, ecological functions, adaptation benefits, valuation, and ecosystem management practices. Our review identified 110 articles, reporting on 112 cities, and analysed them using both quantitative statistical and qualitative content analysis. We found that EbA research in an urban context is fragmented due to different disciplinary approaches and concepts. Most articles focus on heat or flooding, and the most studied ecological structures for reducing the risk of such hazards are green space, wetlands, trees and parks. EbA is usually evaluated in bio-geophysical terms and the use of economic or social valuations are rare. While most articles do not mention specific practices for managing ecological structures, those that do imply that urban EbA strategies are increasingly being integrated into institutional structures. Few articles considered issues of equity or stakeholder participation in EbA. We identified the following challenges for future EbA research. First, while the large amount of data generated by isolated case studies contributes to systems knowledge, there is a lack of systems perspectives that position EbA in relation to the wider socio-economic and bio-geophysical context. Second, normative and ethical aspects of EbA require more thought, such as who are the winners and losers, especially in relation to processes that put people at risk from climate-related hazards. Third, there is room for more forward-looking EbA research, including consideration of future scenarios, experimentation in the creation of new ecological structures and the role of EbA in transformative adaptation. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Brink, E; Aalders, T; Adám, D; Feller, R; Henselek, Y; Hoffmann, A; Ibe, K; Matthey-Doret, A; Meyer, M; Negrut, NL; Rau, AL; Riewerts, B; von Schuckmann, L; Törnros, S; von Wehrden, H; Abson, DJ; Wamsler, C

Cascades of green: A review of ecosystem-based adaptation in urban areas

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.11.003

Background: Although the message of global climate change'' is catalyzing international action, it is local and regional changes that directly affect people and ecosystems and are of immediate concern to scientists, managers, and policy makers. A major barrier preventing informed climate-change adaptation planning is the difficulty accessing, analyzing, and interpreting climate-change information. To address this problem, we developed a powerful, yet easy to use, web-based tool called Climate Wizard (http://ClimateWizard.org) that provides non-climate specialists with simple analyses and innovative graphical depictions for conveying how climate has and is projected to change within specific geographic areas throughout the world. Methodology/Principal Findings: To demonstrate the Climate Wizard, we explored historic trends and future departures (anomalies) in temperature and precipitation globally, and within specific latitudinal zones and countries. We found the greatest temperature increases during 1951-2002 occurred in northern hemisphere countries (especially during January-April), but the latitude of greatest temperature change varied throughout the year, sinusoidally ranging from approximately 50 degrees N during February-March to 10 degrees N during August-September. Precipitation decreases occurred most commonly in countries between 0-20 degrees N, and increases mostly occurred outside of this latitudinal region. Similarly, a quantile ensemble analysis based on projections from 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 2070-2099 identified the median projected change within countries, which showed both latitudinal and regional patterns in projected temperature and precipitation change. Conclusions/Significance: The results of these analyses are consistent with those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but at the same time, they provide examples of how Climate Wizard can be used to explore regionally- and temporally-specific analyses of climate change. Moreover, Climate Wizard is not a static product, but rather a data analysis framework designed to be used for climate change impact and adaption planning, which can be expanded to include other information, such as downscaled future projections of hydrology, soil moisture, wildfire, vegetation, marine conditions, disease, and agricultural productivity.

Girvetz, EH; Zganjar, C; Raber, GT; Maurer, EP; Kareiva, P; Lawler, JJ

Applied Climate-Change Analysis: The Climate Wizard Tool

Plos One

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0008320

Passive house has been constructed in China on a large-scale over the past couple years for its great energy saving potential. However, research indicates that there is a significant discrepancy in energy performance for heating and cooling between passive houses in different climate zones. Therefore, this research develops a comparative analysis on the energy saving potential of passive houses with the conventional around China. A sensitivity analysis of thermal characteristics of building envelope (insulation of exterior walls and windows, and airtightness) on energy consumption is further carried out to improve the climate adaptability of passive house. Moreover, the variation of energy consumption under different heat gain intensity is also compared, to evaluate the effects of envelope thermal characteristics comprehensively. Results suggest that the decrease of exterior wall insulation leads to the greatest increase in energy consumption, especially in severe cold zone in China. However, the optimal insulation may change with the internal heat gain intensity, for instance, the decrease of insulation (from 0.4 to 1.0 W/(m(2)center dot K)) could reduce the energy consumption by 4.65 kW center dot h/(m(2)center dot a) when the heat gain increases to 20 W/m(2) for buildings in Hot Summer and Cold Winter zone in China.

Duan, MF; Sun, HL; Wu, YF; Wu, XY; Lin, BR

Climate adaptive thermal characteristics of envelope of residential passive house in China

Journal Of Central South University

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11771-022-5071-0