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In this paper, we take a Public Choice perspective to identify and categorise barriers to efficient public climate adaptation. Specifically, we distinguish three dimensions of public adaptation: extent, structure (form and timing) and organisation (coordination across territorial authorities and policy fields). Within each of these dimensions, we investigate how the self-interest of voters, pressure groups, bureaucrats and politicians may bias adaptation decisions. Thus, we indicate specific barriers to efficient public adaptation. Based on this framework, we illustrate how Germany's response to major flood disasters reflects the incentive structure of concerned stakeholders and their political interaction. The ad hoc character of some public adaptation measures implies a clear bias from the efficient benchmark. In conclusion, we argue that the propositions of Public Choice theory shed some light on how empirical public adaptation processes unfold.

Gawel, E; Lehmann, P; Strunz, S; Heuson, C

Public Choice barriers to efficient climate adaptation - theoretical insights and lessons learned from German flood disasters

Journal Of Institutional Economics

https://doi.org/10.1017/S1744137416000163

This article provides evidence on the relationships between food aid and the adoption of climate adaptive agricultural practices (CAPs) in the context of smallholder households in Ethiopia and Malawi. Using bivariate and mixed recursive models, and drawing on three waves of nationally representative panel survey data, we find that receiving food aid significantly increases the probability of adopting soil and water conservation structures in both countries and increasing livestock holdings in Ethiopia. We argue that food aid influences the adoption of these resource-intensive practices directly by easing households' constraints to capital and labour, and indirectly by enabling greater risk-taking. For less risky and less resource-intensive practices, namely organic fertilizer use and legume intercropping, the impacts of food aid on adoption are negative, suggesting a substitution effect triggered by food aid. We further examine the heterogeneous impacts of food aid in terms of variations in transfer values and the levels of low rainfall risk exposure experienced by households in order to better understand how targeting and food aid implementation features influence CAP adoption choices. Our analysis makes two important contributions: (1) it provides cross-country evidence on the productive impacts of food aid in smallholder contexts, and; (2) it demonstrates the value of leveraging existing social assistance interventions in order to achieve climate adaptation objectives.

Sitko, NJ; Scognamillo, A; Malevolti, G

Does receiving food aid influence the adoption of climate-adaptive agricultural practices? Evidence from Ethiopia and Malawi

Food Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102041

Extreme drought has negative impacts on the health of vegetation and the stability of ecosystems. In this study, the CASA model was employed to estimate the net primary productivity of vegetation over the Yunnan Plateau. The time-lag effects on vegetation were observed within a 0-6 month period of extreme droughts using the Pearson correlation coefficient. The resistance of vegetation during extreme droughts was quantified, and the recovery capability of vegetation following these events was analyzed using the ARIMA model. Moreover, the study investigated the response of vegetation to extreme droughts across diverse altitudinal gradients. The results showed that: (1) This round of extreme drought led to a decrease in the NPP of vegetation in the Yunnan Plateau. (2) Vegetation exhibits a 1-3-month lag period in response to extreme drought, with forests showing slower responses than grasslands and shrubs and higher resistance to the drought. Except for agricultural vegetation, most other vegetation types are able to recover their productivity within a year. (3) Vegetation above 3000 m is less susceptible to the impacts of extreme drought. With increasing elevation, forests exhibit an earlier lag period in response to extreme drought and an increase in resistance, but lower elevation vegetation demonstrates better recovery from extreme drought events. Shrub vegetation shows the highest resistance at elevations between 3000-4000 m, and shrubs at middle to high elevations have better recovery capacity than those at low elevations. Grassland vegetation exhibits increased resistance to extreme drought with higher elevation and shows better recovery. Agricultural vegetation demonstrates higher resistance at middle to high elevations, with no significant elevation differences in recovery capacity. Extreme drought events not only have a lag effect on the vegetation ecosystem, but also affect its stability and resilience to future drought events. To adapt to climate change, future research should emphasize the role of small-scale climate in vegetation's response to drought.

Lin, C; He, YL; Wang, ZY

Sensitivity of Vegetation Productivity to Extreme Droughts across the Yunnan Plateau, China

Atmosphere

https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14061026

Identification of terrestrial carbon (C) sources and sinks is critical for understanding the Earth system as well as mitigating and adapting to climate change resulting from greenhouse gas emissions. Predicting whether a given location will act as a C source or sink using terrestrial ecosystem models (TEMs) is challenging due to net flux being the difference between far larger, spatially and temporally variable fluxes with large uncertainties. Uncertainty in projections of future dynamics, critical for policy evaluation, has been determined using multi-TEM intercomparisons, for various emissions scenarios. This approach quantifies structural and forcing errors. However, the role of parameter error within models has not been determined. TEMs typically have defined parameters for specific plant functional types generated from the literature. To ascertain the importance of parameter error in forecasts, we present a Bayesian analysis that uses data on historical and current C cycling for Brazil to parameterise five TEMs of varied complexity with a retrieval of model error covariance at 1 degrees spatial resolution. After evaluation against data from 2001-2017, the parameterised models are simulated to 2100 under four climate change scenarios spanning the likely range of climate projections. Using multiple models, each with per pixel parameter ensembles, we partition forecast uncertainties. Parameter uncertainty dominates across most of Brazil when simulating future stock changes in biomass C and dead organic matter (DOM). Uncertainty of simulated biomass change is most strongly correlated with net primary productivity allocation to wood (NPPwood) and mean residence time of wood (MRTwood). Uncertainty of simulated DOM change is most strongly correlated with MRTsoil and NPPwood. Due to the coupling between these variables and C stock dynamics being bi-directional, we argue that using repeat estimates of woody biomass will provide a valuable constraint needed to refine predictions of the future carbon cycle. Finally, evaluation of our multi-model analysis shows that wood litter contributes substantially to fire emissions, necessitating a greater understanding of wood litter C cycling than is typically considered in large-scale TEMs.

Smallman, TL; Milodowski, DT; Neto, ES; Koren, G; Ometto, J; Williams, M

Parameter uncertainty dominates C-cycle forecast errors over most of Brazil for the 21st century

Earth System Dynamics

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1191-2021

Indonesia is the largest archipelagic nation in the world with 17,504 islands, a coastline of 108,000 km and 15.8% (27,255 km(2)) of the world's coral reefs. This paper reviews the status of marine protected areas (MPAs) and networks of MPA in Indonesia, draws on lessons learned, and highlights what has been learned from the design of a network of MPAs for Fisheries Management Area (FMA) 715 across six eastern provinces as an example of how such work can be adapted for other parts of the country and elsewhere. Nationally, the 235,622 km(2) of MPAs are mostly large (average 2,380 km(2)) with use zones and small no-take areas (<15 percent). MPAs are implemented by provincial governments or one of 2 national agencies. The design of a network of MPAs across FMA 715 began with 14 MPAs covering 1,977,276 ha or 4% of the marine waters of FMA 715 in 2016. Now there are 48 MPAs covering 3,062,206 hectares in the planning area, and the design process identified an additional 44 Areas of Interest required to establish new MPAs to augment the existing MPAs in FMA 715 to achieve the objectives of enhancing fisheries, protecting biodiversity, adapting to climate change while supporting community livelihoods and traditional practices. Issues identified in the process are that the scale and complexity of science and management needed is beyond what most stakeholders can easily comprehend; that implementation cuts across multiple jurisdictions with a still-new formal mandate for planning and managing the large network area; and, that the present process could only be possible with outside facilitating expertise. Finally, since the national conservation agency is currently finalizing legal guidelines for the planning and implementation of sub-national networks of MPA, this process has educated many and the result will lend legal and governance support to the continued planning and implementation of the FMA 715 MPA Network and for other areas.

White, A; Rudyanto; Agung, MF; Minarputri, N; Lestari, AP; Wen, W; Fajariyanto, Y; Green, A; Tighe, S

Marine Protected Area Networks in Indonesia: Progress, Lessons and a Network Design Case Study Covering Six Eastern Provinces

Coastal Management

https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1967560

While there is agreement among tourism role-players on tourism's potential to contribute to socio-economic and environmental development, the industry is under severe threat from the increased impact of climate variability and change. This study examines the implications of rising sea level on coastal tourism in Cape Town, South Africa. Making use of mean sea level data from permanent sea level markers, remote sensing and field observations, supported by key informant interviews, the study found that coastal tourism is under threat from rising sea level. Current and projected rising sea level, as well as other extreme weather events such as the increased storm intensity trigger massive waves and tides that result in storm surges, which overtop and encroach into the land surface area. At least 80% of the city's 2019/2020 Blue Flag beaches are now under threat from rising sea level and coastal erosion. The study also found that some of the iconic tourist attractions such as the Cape Point, V&A Waterfront, Robben Island and several beaches along the False Bay area are under the same threat. Other tourism facilities under threat of weather extremes from climate change include servitudes, coastal roads, railway facilities and tidal pools: all threatening the attractiveness of some resorts. Management implications: Rising sea level is a huge challenge that requires innovative solutions for the city of Cape Town. Given the threat that the industry is facing, there is a need for a public-private partnership aimed at ensuring that there are sufficient resources to help the tourism sector is capable of adapting to climate change. Increase insurance cover is a must to protect businesses from anticipated increased damage from rising sea levels and associated weather extreme events. Continued risk assessment is a must to ensure the industry is abreast with the continued changes which are threats to coastal tourism resorts and infrastructure.

Dube, K; Nhamo, G; Chikodzi, D

Rising sea level and its implications on coastal tourism development in Cape Town, South Africa

Journal Of Outdoor Recreation And Tourism-Research Planning And Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jort.2020.100346

1. On a global scale, most of the coastal zones in the world are undergoing rapid and accelerating changes. This coastal syndrome combines two major trends: one linked to the growth of coastal populations, habitat, transport and industrial infrastructures (assets); the other linked to the influence of climate change and its effects in terms of sea-level rise, increased frequency of extreme weather events, acidification and increase in ocean surface temperature, both affecting the health of coastal ecosystems. This situation is also reflected in the increase in coastal engineering solutions, which have significant impacts on coastal hydrodynamics and natural ecosystems. This extremely dynamic context calls for an evolution in conservation and spatial planning strategies in order to better anticipate changes that may affect not only the sustainability of both the distribution and health of natural ecosystems, but also the relevance of conservation efforts. Marine and coastal protected areas help preserve ecological services, and reduce the risks faced by coastal communities. Therefore, it can be argued that the effectiveness of these conservation units will depend on the ability, (i) to take into account their territorial context, and also (ii) to base the management decisions on a prospective and sufficiently anticipated (future-oriented) approach. MPA management must be proactive to cope with such rapid changes. The Nexus approach, promoted by the IUCN Commission on Ecosystem Management - coastal ecosystem group (CEM/CEG), places marine and coastal spatial planning as a key integrative element linking conservation, adaptation to climate change and coastal risk reduction, and as a part of no-regret adaptation strategies. This paper highlights the main factors that characterize current coastal dynamics, and then briefly presents three future-oriented pilot operations, implemented in Western Africa at different scales. These operations illustrate how MPAs must become structuring elements for the organization and development of coastal territories if they are to contribute to the resilience of coastal systems and to ensure their own long-term sustainability.

Goussard, JJ; Ducrocq, M

Facing the future: Conservation as a precursor for building coastal territorial cohesion and resilience

Aquatic Conservation-Marine And Freshwater Ecosystems

https://doi.org/10.1002/aqc.2823

The role of energy transition amidst the energy crisis and how policymakers can drive down emissions while focusing on energy security are critical. Given the geo-political situation, energy crisis volatility, energy shortage and climate change all affect the green transition and the short-term priorities for energy companies and policymakers. Energy security is not an isolated issue but has widespread implications as various sectors depend on energy supply to function properly. Governments around the world are faced with this trilemma, how to balance energy security with energy sustainability while also considering energy affordability. Sustainability has been in focus for about a decade. However, energy security is suddenly becoming one of the most important priorities that policymakers need to consider. Unfortunately, the renewable energy infrastructure is not yet ready to replace the growing volume of energy demand from hydrocarbon, which the world has been dependent on. This means, for now, a surge in energy generation through hydrocarbon to meet the existing energy demand deficit. However, it is important not to lose focus on the challenge of energy sustainability and climate change adaption and mitigation. Where trends like carbon capture and storage; solar, wind, hydro, green hydrogen, etc.; renewable energy infrastructure and integrations, with supply chain and engineering services consideration [in aspect for the growing market in this space] need better attention with regards to investment and full-scale implementation. This paper aims to analyze this 1st energy crisis of green transition with a priori on energy poverty with consideration of major influences and associated impacts. Furthermore, it proposes a specific framework for inclusive investigations, which considers the entire energy ecosystem with consideration of major influences, to enable the policymakers to better drive the green transition. This involves formulating energy policies that are not entirely conservative towards renewable energy sources but instead promote investments in both green and relatively more environmentally benign energy sources compared to high emission hydrocarbons. In this regard, this paper renders exhaustive prospects and recommendations.

Hussain, SA; Razi, F; Hewage, K; Sadiq, R

The perspective of energy poverty and 1st energy crisis of green transition

Energy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2023.127487

Local-scale climate change adaptation is receiving more attention to reduce the adverse effects of climate change. The process of developing adaptation measures at local-scale (e.g., river basins) requires high-quality climate information with higher resolution. Climate projections are available at a coarser spatial resolution from Global Climate Models (GCMs) and require spatial downscaling and bias correction to drive hydrological models. We used the hybrid multiple linear regression and stochastic weather generator model (Statistical Down-Scaling Model, SDSM) to develop a location-based climate projection, equivalent to future station data, from GCMs. Meteorological data from 24 ground stations and the most accurate satellite and reanalysis products identified for the region, such as Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data were used. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to assess the impacts of the projected climate on hydrology. Both SDSM and SWAT were calibrated and validated using the observed climate and streamflow data, respectively. Climate projection based on SDSM, in one of the large and agricultural intensive basins in Ethiopia (i.e., Awash), show high variability in precipitation but an increase in maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperature, which agrees with global warming. On average, the projection shows an increase in annual precipitation (>10%), Tmax (>0.4 degrees C), Trnin (>0.2 degrees C) and streamflow (>34%) in the 2020s (2011-2040), 2050s (2041-2070), and 2080s (2071-2100) under RCP2.6-RCP8.5. Although no significant trend in precipitation is found, streamflow during March-May and June-September is projected to increase throughout the 21 century by an average of more than 1.1% and 24%, respectively. However, streamflow is projected to decrease during January-February and October-November by more than 6%. Overall, considering the projected warming and changes in seasonal flow, local-scale adaptation measures to limit the impact on agriculture, water and energy sectors are required. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gebrechorkos, SH; Bernhofer, C; Hülsmann, S

Climate change impact assessment on the hydrology of a large river basin in Ethiopia using a local-scale climate modelling approach

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140504

Future climate for the Mediterranean climatic region is expected to bring an increase in temperatures, decrease in the precipitation quantity and shifts in the seasonal precipitation pattern. Although the impacts of climate change on water resources have been relatively well explored for the Mediterranean climatic region, the specific consequences for reservoirs and, in particular, water availability and irrigation issues have been less studied. The objective of this work is two-fold: (i) to assess the impacts of future climate changes on water resources availability, quality (focusing on phosphorus loads as this is the limiting nutrient for eutrophication) and irrigation needs for two multipurpose reservoirs in southern Portugal; (ii) to suggest climate change adaptation strategies, especially for the agricultural sector. To this end, the SWAT model was first calibrated against existing data on reservoir inflows as well as phosphorus loads. Then, SWAT was run with climate derived EURO-CORDEX models (RCA4/RACMO22E) for four periods (1970-2000, 2010-2040, 2040-2070 and 2070-2100). Water availability was analysed using the Water Exploitation Index (WEI) that was calculated for both reservoirs combining changes of inflows and irrigation requirements. The results indicated that climate change will negatively impact water availability in both reservoirs, especially under RCP8.5. In the case of the Monte Novo reservoir, future domestic water supply could be constrained by water quality problems related with phosphorus loads. For Vigia reservoir, the high water exploitation will lead to water scarcity problems, mainly as this reservoir on presentday conditions is restrictive on irrigation requirements. Adaptation strategies such as the implementation of high end technology (e.g. soil moisture and plant water stress probes, satellite imagery and drones to evaluate water stress - NDVI) as well as the renewal of the irrigation network and adequate crop selection can help attenuating the effects of climate change on the water resources in this region. (c) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rocha, J; Carvalho-Santos, C; Diogo, P; Beça, P; Keizer, JJ; Nunes, JP

Impacts of climate change on reservoir water availability, quality and irrigation needs in a water scarce Mediterranean region (southern Portugal)

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139477

The societal value, ecological importance and thermal sensitivity of stream-dwelling salmonids have prompted interest in adaptive management strategies to limit the effects of climate change on their habitats. Additionally, in northern temperate regions, the management and restoration of riparian broadleaf forest is advocated increasingly to dampen variations in stream water temperature and discharge, but might have collateral effects on salmonids by changing allochthonous subsidies. Here, in a cross-sectional analysis of 18 temperate headwaters with different riparian and catchment land use, we use classical fisheries data alongside stable isotope ratios in salmonids and their macroinvertebrate prey to examine whether increasing catchment cover of broadleaf trees could (i) increase the density, biomass and size of salmonids, (ii) increase brown trout (Salmo trutta) dietary reliance on production of terrestrial origin and (iii) mediate allochthonous energy flux between aquatic macroinvertebrates and brown trout. Contrary to expectation, catchment broadleaf cover had no systematic effect on salmonid density or individual size, although salmonid biomass was lowest in streams draining non-native conifers. Moreover, there was no major effect of land use on the dependence of S.trutta on terrestrial production: averaged across all sites, trout used more production from in-stream (623%: mean +/- 1 SE) than terrestrial (38 +/- 3%) sources. Dependence on terrestrial production varied more substantially among individual streams than with riparian land use, mirroring site-specific patterns observed in macroinvertebrates. Although increased broadleaf cover could benefit salmonids by offsetting the impacts of warming related to climate change, these results imply that broadleaf restoration along temperate, upland headwaters is neutral with respect to salmonid biomass, density and terrestrial subsidies. In contrast, the use of non-native conifers for stream shading could have negative effects on salmonid production. Knowledge of the ecological implications of climate change adaptation remains rudimentary, and we advocate further evaluations like ours not only for fresh waters, but for ecosystems more generally.

Thomas, SM; Griffiths, SW; Ormerod, SJ

Adapting streams for climate change using riparian broadleaf trees and its consequences for stream salmonids

Freshwater Biology

https://doi.org/10.1111/fwb.12467

Mangrove vegetation is strongly dependent on the climate, the physicochemical variables of the sediment, and the hydrological dynamics. These drivers regulate the distribution of different mangrove ecotypes and their ecosystem services, so the net sediment accumulation rates in different mangrove ecotypes in Celestun Lagoon, a karstic zone in the NW Yucatan Peninsula, SE Mexico, were estimated. The measurements considering mangrove ecotypes and their spatial variability concerning the lagoon's salinity gradient (inner, middle, and outer lagoon zones) in three climate seasons (dry, rain, and nortes) were realized. We registered the structural variables of the forest, interstitial water physicochemical characteristics, and sediment variables that could influence the net sediment deposition. Fringe mangroves are exposed to low hydrodynamism and show the highest sedimentation rate (3.37 +/- 0.49 kg m(-2) year(-1)) compared to basin (1.68 +/- 0.22 kg m(-2) year(-1)), dwarf (1.27 +/- 0.27 kg m(-2) year(-1)), and peten (0.52 +/- 0.12 kg m(-2) year(-1)) mangroves. The highest sedimentation rate was recorded in the rainy season (0.24 +/- 0.08 kg m(-2) month(-1)), while spatially, the highest value was registered in the outer zone (0.44 +/- 0.09 kg m(-2) month(-1)). If the extension of each mangrove ecotype is considered, dwarf mangroves have the highest annual sediment accumulation (1,465 t year(-1) in 14,706 ha). The structural, physicochemical, and sediment variables of the sites by mangrove ecotype show that dwarf mangroves represent a distinct group from those formed by fringe, basin, and peten mangroves. However, the sedimentation is high in fringe mangroves at the front of the lagoon and diminishes inland where peten mangroves exist. The differences are given by tree density, but salinity, as a proxy variable of the freshwater influence, significantly influences the sedimentation rate. These results indicate that mangroves in karstic environments can have critical roles in confronting climate change, considering water and sediment flows are the basis of sediment accumulation. According to their hydrogeomorphological drivers, conserving, managing, and restoring the mosaic of mangrove ecotypes improves ecosystem services, including mitigation and adaptation to climate change.

Cinco-Castro, S; Herrera-Silveira, J; Comin, F

Sedimentation as a Support Ecosystem Service in Different Ecological Types of Mangroves

Frontiers In Forests And Global Change

https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2022.733820

Information about high-intensity precipitation of short duration and the corresponding return values is of great importance when designing urban drainage systems. In this study, an extreme rainfall event in summer 2020 which caused an urban flood in the city of Zagreb was analyzed from the hydro-meteorological point of view. To put this event in a broader climate context, first, a general climatology of the short-duration (from 5 to 120 min) rainfall amounts and trends in the associated extremes was analyzed for the Zagreb-Gric station in the period 1908-2020. For the flood event analysis, time series from additional two stations, a suburb and mountain one, were used covering the period 1959-2020. The generalized extreme value distribution (GEV), both stationary and non-stationary, was employed to estimate the return value curves. The results revealed more frequent short-duration wet events (rainfall amounts larger than the corresponding 10-year return values) occurring after the 1970s. Trend results showed a general increase in the amounts of precipitation with a range of duration from 30 to 120 min with the rate up to 2.9%/10 years. Combined with the analysis of occurrence of extremes during year and correlogram analysis, such results imply changes in the occurrence of corresponding weather types responsible for heavy rainfall episodes. The case study analysis showed that the 120-min extreme precipitation event in the summer 2020 over the city center was an exceptional one with the return period higher than 100 years. According to all available data, measurements and numerical weather prediction models, all ingredients for deep moist convection were present before the event, together with a deep layer shear. In addition, formation of cutoff low, the presence of an intense positive potential vorticity anomaly and the surface convergence line appear to be the main processes which further enhanced triggered deep convection, consequently also heavy precipitation. The hydrological analysis revealed that the sewerage system of Zagreb city could not drain the stormwater from the streets, pointing out the need for its redesign and adaptation to climate change.

Nimac, I; Kalin, KC; Renko, T; Vujnovic, T; Horvath, K

The analysis of summer 2020 urban flood in Zagreb (Croatia) from hydro-meteorological point of view

Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05210-4

Purpose Managing disasters using modern science and traditional knowledge systems in silos has several prospects and limitations. Despite the catalyst role of the traditional knowledge in reducing the risks of disasters and adapting to climate change, this knowledge has not featured prominently in any of the existing disaster policies and disaster science. The authors demonstrate how traditional knowledge and modern science can be integrated for holistic approach of disaster risk reduction and management. Design/methodology/approach Using qualitative research method complemented by thorough literature review, this article captures traditional knowledge and practices of communities in the Narayani Basin for flood disaster risks reduction and management and shows ways to integrate traditional knowledge and modern science for holistic approach of disaster risk reduction and management. Findings The authors found that traditional knowledge system and practices have worked as an alternative to modern technoengineering approaches of disaster risk reduction and management and hold immense potential to contribute against disasters; therefore, this knowledge system of the communities not only needs to be recognized, conserved and documented but also is to be incorporated into efforts to formulate effective disaster management strategies and be amalgamated with the technoengineering practices for a holistic approach so that it can ensure disaster safety and security of the communities. Research limitations/implications The authors conducted this study collecting primary data from Narayani basin only; however, the authors believe that these practices and findings of the research may still be representative. Practical implications The practical implication of this research is that traditional knowledge system needs to be integrated with technobureaucratic knowledge of disaster management, enabling to develop a more robust and holistic approach of disaster risk reduction and management. Social implications This research documents being extinct traditional knowledge system and empowers communities by supporting them to integrate and use both traditional knowledge and modern technobureaucratic knowledge for building communities flood resilient. Originality/value This research is based on both primary and secondary data and original in case of its findings and conclusion, and no similar research contextualizing the role of traditional knowledge system in flood disaster management has been conducted in Narayani Basin of Nepal in the past.

Pandey, CL; Basnet, A

Managing disasters integrating traditional knowledge and scientific knowledge systems: a study from Narayani basin, Nepal

Disaster Prevention And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/DPM-04-2021-0136

Although the need for agriculture to adapt to climate change is well established, there is relatively little research within a UK context that explores how the risks associated with climate change are perceived at the farm level, nor how farmers are adapting their businesses to improve resilience in the context of climate change. Based on 31 in-depth, qualitative interviews (15 with farmers and 16 with stakeholders including advisors, consultants and industry representatives) this paper begins to address this gap by exploring experiences, attitudes and responses to extreme weather and climate change. The results point to a mixed picture of resilience to climate risks. All interviewees had experienced or witnessed negative impacts from extreme weather events in recent years but concern was expressed that too few farm businesses are taking sufficient action to increase their business resilience to extreme weather and climate change. Many farmers interviewed for this research did not perceive adaptation to be a priority and viewed the risks as either too uncertain and/or too long-term to warrant any significant investment of time or money at present when many are preoccupied with short-term profitability and business survival. We identified a range of issues and barriers that are constraining improved resilience across the industry, including some lack of awareness about the type and cost-effectiveness of potential adaptation options. Nevertheless, we also found evidence of positive actions being taken by many, whether in direct response to climate change/extreme weather or as a result of other drivers such as soil health, policy and legislation, cost reduction, productivity and changing consumer demands. Our findings reveal a number of actions that can help enable adaption at the farm level including improved industry collaboration, farmer-to-farmer learning, and the need for tools and support that take into account the specificities of different farming systems and that can be easily tailored or interpreted to help farmers understand what climate change means for their particular farm and, crucially, what they can do to increase their resilience to both extreme weather and longer term climate risks.

Wheeler, R; Lobley, M

Managing extreme weather and climate change in UK agriculture: Impacts, attitudes and action among farmers and stakeholders

Climate Risk Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100313

Adaptation to climate change is a major challenge facing the agricultural sector worldwide. Olive (Olea europaeaL.) is a global, high value crop currently cultivated in 28 countries worldwide. Global data to assess the vulnerability of the crop to climate variability are scarce, and in some notable cases, such the United Nations Food and Agricutlure Organization database (FAO, 2006), qualitative assessments rather than quantitative indicators are provided. The aim of this study is to demonstrate a new approach to help overcome these constraints toward a globally applicable method to assess the adaptability of olive cultivars. The adaptability of 11 cultivars, widely used in 11 countries worldwide, was studied using a new generic approach based on the evaluation of soil hydrological regime against cultivar-specific hydrological requirements. The approach requires local data, notably on soil hydrological properties, but it is easily transferable to other countries and regions. We applied an agrohydrological model in 60 soil units to determine hydrological indicators both in a reference (1961-1990) and a future (2021-2050) climate case. We compared indicators with cultivar-specific requirements to achieve the target yield; requirements were established using experimental yield response curves. We estimated the probability of adaptation, i.e., the probability that a given cultivar attains the target yield, and we used it to evaluate the cultivar potential distribution in the study area. At the locations where soil hydrological conditions were favorable, the probabilities of adaptation of the cultivars were high in both climate cases. The results show that the area with suitable conditions for the target yield (area of adaptability) decreased under future climate for all the cultivars, with higher reduction for Frantoio and Maiatica and smaller reduction for Itrana, Nocellara, Ascolana, and Kalamata. These cultivars are currently grown in Argentina, United States (US), Australia, France, Greece, and Italy. Our results indicate also that these cultivars require higher available soil water to attain the target yield, i.e., we may expect similar vulnerability in other parts of the world. Based on these findings, we provide some specific recommendations for enrichment of global databases and for further developments of our approach, to increase its potential for global application.

Alfieri, SM; Riccardi, M; Menenti, M; Basile, A; Bonfante, A; De Lorenzi, F

Adaptability of global olive cultivars to water availability under future Mediterranean climate

Mitigation And Adaptation Strategies For Global Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-018-9820-1

The Ganga Basin, one of the world's most densely populated and vulnerable regions, is also among the world's most dynamic hydrological systems. Rivers exiting the Himalaya deposit massive amounts of sediment in the plains and shift their courses regularly. The natural dynamics of this system have a direct impact on populations. On August 18th, 2008, for example, embankments on the Kosi River (a tributary to the Ganges), failed and the channel shifted by as much as 120 km (Sinha, 2008 [1]) displacing over sixty thousand people in Nepal and three and a half million in India. Transport and power systems disrupted across large areas. The embankment failure was not caused by an extreme event. Instead the breach represented a failure of interlinked physical and institutional infrastructure systems in an area characterized by complex social, political, and environmental relationships. Projected climate changes in the Ganga Basin are likely to greatly exacerbate vulnerability (Adaptation Study Team, 2008 121). While the Kosi breach had nothing to do with climate change, such events will increase if climatic variability, sediment transport, and extreme events increase. Understanding how populations can respond to the dynamic nature of rivers such as the Kosi is, as a result, essential to develop strategies for adapting to climatic change. Understanding is also essential at the policy level for building adaptive capacity. The challenge is to identify policy frameworks and their relationship to interlinked physical and institutional infrastructure combinations that create environments enabling adaptation within households, communities, and regions. This paper explores the challenges and opportunities facing the development of adaptive policy frameworks in the Ganga Basin. The characteristics of frameworks that are adaptive in themselves and enable adaptation along with their relationship to different types of interlinked institutional and infrastructure systems are explored first. Following this, the case of the Kosi embankment along with the projected impacts of climate change across the Ganga Basin is used to identify the key challenges and opportunities that are common in many regions. The paper concludes with specific observations on the development of adaptive policy frameworks for responding to climate change in complex developing country contexts. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Moench, M

Responding to climate and other change processes in complex contexts: Challenges facing development of adaptive policy frameworks in the Ganga Basin

Technological Forecasting And Social Change

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2009.11.006

Understanding the origins of groundwater and its movement from mountain to plain during different high intensity rainfall events is critical for conserving water supplies, determining water-use policies and controlling pollution. These factors are also the keys for understanding the dominant processes in hydrological models. In this study, groundwater resources and recharge processes during heavy precipitation were explored by using stable isotope tracers in the hilly area of Taihang Mountain. It was found that the 82H and 818O values of precipitation exhibited obvious precipitation amount effect during different precipitation intensity events. The stable isotopic values in groundwater and river water showed significantly varied during the single extreme heavy precipitation and the continuous heavy precipitation events. In the rainy season, precipitation amounts greater than 40 mm/d could effectively recharge the shallow groundwater in the study area. By comparing the spatial isotopic distribution of groundwater, soil water, and river water with precipitation, we showed distinct groundwater recharge patterns in terms of their water resources, timing, and the degree of river water and groundwater interaction during the single extreme heavy precipitation and the continuous heavy precipitation. After the single extreme heavy precipitation, the 82H and 818O values of groundwater, soil water, and river water showed stable over time and had the same similar variations, suggested that the groundwater recharge was mainly dominated by precipitation with preferential flow or bypass flow. While after the continuous heavy precipitation, the variation of 82H and 818O in all water is consistent with the previous precipitation, which shown a mixing effect of previous enrich precipitation and depleted heavy precipitation, suggested that groundwater source was dominated by a continuous recharge of previous heavier precipitation with translatory flow. The groundwater main recharge mechanism is not constant, but changes with rainfall intensity. The rainfall intensity play an important role in groundwater recharge change affecting runoff process. Overall, this paper presents a new insight to understand the effect of rainfall intensity on hydrological process, which could be used to provide vital information in the semi-humid and semi-arid regions where water resources are critical in climate change adaptation strategies.

Zheng, WB; Wang, SQ; Tan, KD; Shen, YJ; Yang, LH

Rainfall intensity affects the recharge mechanisms of groundwater in a headwater basin of the North China plain

Applied Geochemistry

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeochem.2023.105742

The study examined the potential future changes of drought characteristics in the Greater Lake Malawi Basin in Southeast Africa. This region strongly depends on water resources to generate electricity and food. Future projections (considering both moderate and high emission scenarios) of temperature and precipitation from an ensemble of 16 bias-corrected climate model combinations were blended with a scenario-neutral response surface approach to analyses changes in: (i) the meteorological conditions, (ii) the meteorological water balance, and (iii) selected drought characteristics such as drought intensity, drought months, and drought events, which were derived from the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index. Changes were analyzed for a near-term (2021-2050) and far-term period (2071-2100) with reference to 1976-2005. The effect of bias-correction (i.e., empirical quantile mapping) on the ability of the climate model ensemble to reproduce observed drought characteristics as compared to raw climate projections was also investigated. Results suggest that the bias-correction improves the climate models in terms of reproducing temperature and precipitation statistics but not drought characteristics. Still, despite the differences in the internal structures and uncertainties that exist among the climate models, they all agree on an increase of meteorological droughts in the future in terms of higher drought intensity and longer events. Drought intensity is projected to increase between +25 and +50% during 2021-2050 and between +131 and +388% during 2071-2100. This translates into +3 to +5, and +7 to +8 more drought months per year during both periods, respectively. With longer lasting drought events, the number of drought events decreases. Projected droughts based on the high emission scenario are 1.7 times more severe than droughts based on the moderate scenario. That means that droughts in this region will likely become more severe in the coming decades. Despite the inherent high uncertainties of climate projections, the results provide a basis in planning and (water-)managing activities for climate change adaptation measures in Malawi. This is of particular relevance for water management issues referring hydro power generation and food production, both for rain-fed and irrigated agriculture.

Mtilatila, L; Bronstert, A; Vormoor, K

Temporal evaluation and projections of meteorological droughts in the Greater Lake Malawi Basin, Southeast Africa

Frontiers In Water

https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2022.1041452

Vulnerability to climate change and variability impacts has been identified as a major cog in the wheel of both livelihood and resilience, particularly in vulnerable groups in rural areas. This study aims to assess genders' vulnerability dimension to climate change and variability in REDD + (Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation+) piloted site/clusters, Cross River State, Nigeria. Data were proportionately collected from selected 200 respondents on gender disaggregated level using questionnaires. The assessment adopted the sustainable livelihood approach (livelihood vulnerability index) and compared the results with the IPCC vulnerability standard of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity weighted mean. The results revealed a significant difference in the vulnerability dimension of both women and men disaggregated levels (LVI: men 0.509, women 0.618). The women category was more vulnerable to six out of seven major components of LVI assessed: (livelihood strategies (0.646), social networks (0.364), water (0.559), health (0.379), food and nutrition (0.507), and natural hazards and climate variability (0.482), while men only vulnerable to socio-demographic major component (0.346). Vulnerability indices also showed women to be more exposed (0.482), and sensitive (0.489) with the least adaptive capacities (0.462) to the climate change and variability impacts. Overall, on the IPCC-LVI index, women are more vulnerable (0.0098) to climate change and variability impacts than men (-0.0093). The study recommends that the women's category resilience and adaptive capacity should be empowered in adaptation projects in climate change such as REDD + (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation+) to reduce their vulnerability to impacts of climate change and variability in the context of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacities. This will be instrumental in formulating policies to address the specific needs of gender categories in reducing vulnerability to climate change and variability. This pragmatic approach may be used to monitor gender vulnerability dimension, and livelihood enhancement and evaluate potential climate change adaptation programs. Additionally, the introduction of IPCC-LVI as a baseline instrument will enhance information on gender resilience and adaptive capacity for policy effectiveness in a data-scarce region particularly Africa.

Basiru, AO; Oladoye, AO; Adekoya, OO; Akomolede, LA; Oeba, VO; Awodutire, OO; Charity, F; Abodunrin, EK

Livelihood Vulnerability Index: Gender Dimension to Climate Change and Variability in REDD

Land

https://doi.org/10.3390/land11081240

Across Europe, coasts are drastically being changed to adapt to relative sea level rise, which will influence coastal landscapes and heritage in many ways. In this paper, we introduce a methodological starting point for analysing the ways in which landscape architects and spatial planners engage with coastal landscapes and coastal heritage in the context of current climate adaptation projects. We test these methodologies by applying them to the Marconi dike strengthening project in Delfzijl, the Netherlands. This city's dike fortification is an interesting case, as it offers many opportunities for re-designing heritage. The city borders the Wadden Sea area, a tidal mudflat area protected as a UNESCO World Heritage Site for its natural and geological heritage values. The area also consists of a rich cultural landscape, which is overlooked in the public image and in local policy. We conclude that landscape architects and planners should strengthen not only the dike, but also the interpretation of the past that dominates policy and political debates in the area. We also find that the existing heritage production model of Ashworth and Tunbridge can provide some useful structure for understanding and contextualizing spatial planning for climate change as a way of doing heritage.

Egberts, L; Riesto, S

Raise the dikes and re-use the past? Climate adaptation planning as heritage practice

Maritime Studies

https://doi.org/10.1007/s40152-021-00226-1

Grape ripening is a critical phenological phase during which many metabolites that impact wine quality accumulate in the berries. Major changes in berry composition include a rapid increase in sugar and a decrease in malic acid content and concentration. Its duration is highly variable depending on grapevine variety, climatic parameters, soil type and management practices. Together with the timing of mid-veraison, this duration determines when grapes can be harvested.Viticulturists and winemakers monitor the sugar-to-total acidity ratio (S/TA) during grape ripening and start harvesting grapes when this ratio reaches the optimum value for the desired wine style. The S/TA ratio evolves linearly as a function of thermal summation during the first four weeks following the onset of ripening. The linearity of the evolution of the S/TA ratio as a function of thermal time during the first four weeks following mid-veraison is applied in this study on two large data sets encompassing (1) 53 varieties studied during 10 years with two to four replicates for each combination of year and cultivar and (2) two varieties, cultivated on three soil types over 13 years. Grape ripening speed is highly variable. The effects of the year impact ripening speed more than the effects of the soil or the variety, although all three effects are highly significant. Grape ripening speed decreases with berry weight and also varies with vine water status. By using this approach, viticulturists and winemakers can assess four weeks after mid-veraison, for each individual vineyard parcel, at what speed grape ripening progresses. Combined with precise mid-veraison scoring, expertise from previous vintages and complementary approaches like sensory assessment of berries, it allows harvest date estimates to be fine-tuned. The results of this study can also be used to identify slow ripening varies, which are better performing in warm climates and, thus, better adapted to climate change.

van Leeuwen, C; Destrac-Irvine, A; Gowdy, M; Farris, L; Pieri, P; Marolleau, L; Gambetta, GA

An operational model for capturing grape ripening dynamics to support harvest decisions

Oeno One

https://doi.org/10.20870/oeno-one.2023.57.2.7399

Water scarcity is the key challenge in arid regions, which exacerbates under climate change (CC) and must be considered to assess the impacts of CC on cropping systems. A climate-crop modeling approach was employed by using the CSM-CERES-Wheat model in some arid regions of northeast Iran to project the effects of CC on irrigated winter wheat production. Current climate data for 1990-2019 and climate projections of three climate models for the near-future climate period of 2021-2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were used to run the crop model. Two irrigation scenarios with different irrigation efficiencies were also simulated to investigate the impacts of water scarcity associated with changing climate and irrigation management on winter wheat productivity. Results indicated that mean temperature is projected to increase in the range of 1.74-2.73 degrees C during the reproductive growth period of winter wheat over the study areas. The precipitation projections also indicated that the precipitation rates would decrease over most of the wheat-growing period. The length of the vegetative growth period will extend in some regions and shorten in others under the near future climate period due to a cooling and warming trend, respectively. However, the grain filling duration will be reduced by about 2-4 days across all regions. The mean seasonal potential evapotranspiration is expected to decrease by about 24 mm from 2021 to 2050 in Mashhad, Sabzevar, and Torbat-e Jam. A mean overall reduction in winter wheat yield due to future climate conditions would be about 12.3% across the study areas. However, an increase of 15-30% in the irrigation efficiency will be able to offset yield reductions associated with limited water supply under future climate scenarios. The results suggest that CC will exacerbate limited irrigation water resource availability, so implementing high-efficiency irrigation systems should be a priority to adapt to climate change in the arid cropping system of north-east of Iran.

Saberali, SF; Shirmohammadi-Aliakbarkhani, Z; Nasrabadi, HN

Simulating winter wheat production potential under near-future climate change in arid regions of northeast Iran

Theoretical And Applied Climatology

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04005-8

Maintaining healthy and comfortable indoors through passive ways is challenging due to the changing and extreme climatic conditions. The aim of this work is to review the thermal performance of buildings integrated with various energy-saving strategies and to recommend suitable passive techniques for buildings located in various climatic types. The passive techniques such as PCM, insulation, natural and/or night ventilation techniques were investigated and recommendations were made based on the Koppen-Geiger climatic classifications. A variety of reviews discussing the different aspects of the selection of passive techniques for building applications are available in the literature. Still, knowledge of which technique suits a particular climate and the factors that influence its selection is necessary for all engineers, architects, research personnel, and students who are into building applications. The outcomes of the detailed literature review are as follows: Buildings integrated with PCM, insulation, natural and/or night ventilation significantly reduce the building's energy demands. The crucial factors in selecting an appropriate technique for a specific building are building type and location, weather patterns, and ventilation potential and strategies. Hence, before selecting any technique, it is recommended to analyse the feasibility of the technique for a particular building for an entire year in terms of thermal performance and cost benefits; and Finally, insulation integration at the outer building surface is recommended for Type A and B climates, while insulation integration at the inner building surface is recommended for Type C and D climates. In general, PCM integration is not beneficial for Type A climates, while integrating PCM at the outer building surface is recommended for Type B climates. Similarly, PCM integration at the middle or innermost layer of the building envelopes yielded better results for Type C and D climates. Reframing the building codes and standards for reducing greenhouse gases and adapting to climatic changes is recommended for a healthy, comfortable lifestyle and a clean environment. (c) 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Arumugam, P; Ramalingam, V; Vellaichamy, P

Effective PCM, insulation, natural and/or night ventilation techniques to enhance the thermal performance of buildings located in various climates - A review

Energy And Buildings

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2022.111840

Institutional arrangements are a key issue for sustainable natural resource management. Recent water and fisheries management projects in Bangladesh have established new local institutions for floodplain management based on community organizations. Although the Flood Action Plan (FAP) was the culmination of an earlier emphasis on technical and structural 'solutions' to managing floods and water in Bangladesh, the expected large engineering works were never built. One legacy of FAP lies in a contested process that accelerated emphasis on public participation, smaller scale hazard adjustments and maintaining a wider range of floodplain resource values including conserving and restoring fisheries. This paper compares institutional arrangements and outcomes in two fisheries and two water management projects taken up after FAR Local organizations appeared generally successful in sustaining themselves and continuing floodplain resource management. Facilitation, the extent of consensus among different stakeholders, and fit between institutional arrangements and scale of resource were all important influences on effectiveness. Local organizations have sustained in smaller floodplains, but in larger areas co-management bodies were a key to effective coordination and troubleshooting among a series of linked community organizations. Local leaders tend to dominate after projects end, especially where planning was less participatory and organizational structures were determined from above. Participants stressed that for continued success formally recognized well-run organizations are needed with accountable and adaptable decision-making processes and good leaders. This process built on participatory guidelines from FAP but the local institutions have not addressed hazard risks. Community resource management institutions could develop a more integrated approach that internalizes the interactions between water, land and fishery management. So far, local planning for floods has been a notable gap in the activities of community institutions, but the enhanced social capital could be a basis for adaptation to climate change. For this, an enabling policy environment is needed, which could be facilitated by the open high-profile debate on floodplain issues that characterized FAP.

Sultana, P; Thompson, P

Local institutions for floodplain management in Bangladesh and the influence of the Flood Action Plan

Environmental Hazards-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.3763/ehaz.2010.SI05

Global warming projections point to a wide range of impacts on the climate system, including changes in storm track activity and more frequent and intense extreme weather events. Little is however known on whether and how global warming may affect the atmosphere's predictability and thus our ability to produce accurate weather forecasts. Here, we combine a state-of-the-art climate and a state-of-the-art ensemble weather prediction model to show that, in a business-as-usual 21st century setting, global warming could significantly change the predictability of the atmosphere, defined here via the expected error of weather predictions. Predictability of synoptic weather situations could significantly increase, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. This can be explained by a decrease in the meridional temperature gradient. Contrarily, summertime predictability of weekly rainfall sums might significantly decrease in most regions. Plain Language Summary Due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, it is impossible to make weather forecasts that are completely accurate. Therefore, all weather forecasts are inherently uncertain to a certain degree. However, this uncertainty-and thus the difficulty of making good forecastsis not the same for all forecasts. This opens up the highly important question whether global warming will affect the difficulty of weather forecasts. Due to the enormous socioeconomic importance of accurate weather forecasts, it is essential to know whether climate change adaption policies also need to take into account potential changes in the difficulty and accuracy of weather forecasts. We show that in a warmer world, it will be easier to predict fields such as temperature and pressure. Contrarily, it will be harder to make accurate precipitation forecasts, which might strongly affect both disaster prevention and rainfall-dependent industries such as the energy sector, all of which heavily rely on accurate precipitation forecasts. Additionally, we show that the uncertainty of predictions of pressure fields is to a large extent controlled by fluctuations in the temperature difference between the North Pole and the equator. This is a new and important insight into the fundamentals of weather forecast uncertainty.

Scher, S; Messori, G

How Global Warming Changes the Difficulty of Synoptic Weather Forecasting

Geophysical Research Letters

https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081856

Climate change is a large-scale and emerging environmental risk. It challenges environmental health and the sustainability of global development. Wastewater irrigation can make a sterling contribution to reducing water demand, recycling nutrients, improving soil health and cutting the amount of pollutants discharged into the waterways. However, the resource must be carefully managed to protect the environment and public health. Actions promoting wastewater reuse are every where, yet the frameworks for the protection of human health and the environment are lacking in most developing countries. Global change drivers including climate change, population growth, urbanization, income growth, improvements in living standard, industrialization, and energy intensive lifestyle will all heighten water management challenges. Slowing productivity growth, falling investment in irrigation, loss of biodiversity, risks to public health, environmental health issues such as soil salinity, land degradation, land cover change and water quality issues add an additional layer of complexity. Against this backdrop, the potential for wastewater irrigation and its benefits and risks are examined. These include crop productivity, aquaculture, soil health, groundwater quality, environmental health, public health, infrastructure constraints, social concerns and risks, property values, social equity, and poverty reduction. It is argued that, wastewater reuse and nutrient capture can contribute towards climate change adaptation and mitigation. Benefits such as avoided freshwater pumping and energy savings, fertilizer savings, phosphorous capture and prevention of mineral fertilizer extraction from mines can reduce carbon footprint and earn carbon credits. Wastewater reuse in agriculture reduces the water footprint of food production on the environment; it also entails activities such as higher crop yields and changes in cropping patterns, which also reduce carbon footprint. However, there is a need to better integrate water reuse into core water governance frameworks in order to effectively address the challenges and harness the potential of this vital resource for environmental health protection. The paper also presents a blueprint for future water governance and public policies for the protection of environmental health. Crown Copyright (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.. All rights reserved.

Hanjra, MA; Blackwell, J; Carr, G; Zhang, FH; Jackson, TM

Wastewater irrigation and environmental health: Implications for water governance and public policy

International Journal Of Hygiene And Environmental Health

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijheh.2011.10.003

Climate change poses a significant risk for communities, and local governments around the world have begun responding by developing climate adaptation policies. Scholarship on local adaptation policy has proliferated in recent years, but insufficient attention has been paid to operationalization of the unit of analysis, and methods employed are typically inadequate to draw inferences about variation across cases. This article seeks to contribute to the conceptual and methodological foundations of a research agenda for comparative analysis of local adaptation policies and policy-making. Synthesizing insights from policy studies literature and existing adaptation research, the article identifies and operationalizes two aspects of public policy policy content and policy process which are salient objects of comparative analysis that typically vary from one community to another. The article also addresses research design, outlining a comparative case study methodology that incorporates various qualitative analytical techniques as the vehicle to examine these policy elements in empirical settings. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vogel, B; Henstra, D

Studying local climate adaptation: A heuristic research framework for comparative policy analysis

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.001

Purpose The purpose of this research is to test the effectiveness of integrating Grasshopper 3D and measuring attractiveness by a categorical based evaluation technique (M-MACBETH) for building energy simulation analysis within a virtual environment. Set of energy retrofitting solutions is evaluated against performance-based criteria (energy consumption, weight and carbon footprint), and considering the preservation of the cultural value of the building, its architectural and spatial configuration. Design/methodology/approach This research addresses the building energy performance analysis before and after the design of retrofitting solutions in extreme climate environments (2030-2100). The proposed model integrates data obtained from an advanced parametric tool (Grasshopper) and a multi-criteria decision analysis (M-MACBETH) to score different energy retrofitting solutions against energy consumption, weight, carbon footprint and impact on architectural configuration. The proposed model is tested for predicting the performance of a traditional timber-framed dwelling in a historic parish in Lisbon. The performance of distinct solutions is compared in digitally simulated climate conditions (design scenarios) considering different criteria weights. Findings This study shows the importance of conducting building energy simulation linking physical and digital environments and then, identifying a set of evaluation criteria in the analysed context. Architects, environmental engineers and urban planners should use computational environment in the development design phase to identify design solutions and compare their expected impact on the building configuration and performance-based behaviour. Research limitations/implications The unavailability of local weather data (EnergyPlus Weather File (EPW) file), the high time-resource effort, and the number/type of the energy retrofit measures tested in this research limit the scope of this study. In energy simulation procedures, the baseline generally covers a period of thirty, ten or five years. In this research, due to the fact that weather data is unavailable in the format required in the simulation process (.EPW file), the input data in the baseline is the average climatic data from EnergyPlus (2022). Additionally, this workflow is time-consuming due to the low interoperability of the software. Grasshopper requires a high-skilled analyst to obtain accurate results. To calculate the values for the energy consumption, i.e. the values of energy per day of simulation, all the values given per hour are manually summed. The values of weight are obtained by calculating the amount of material required (whose dimensions are provided by Grasshopper), while the amount of carbon footprint is calculated per kg of material. Then this set of data is introduced into M-MACBETH. Another relevant limitation is related to the techniques proposed for retrofitting this case study, all based on wood-fibre boards. Practical implications The proposed method for energy simulation and climate change adaptation can be applied to other historic buildings considering different evaluation criteria and context-based priorities. Social implications Context-based adaptation measures of the built environment are necessary for the coming years due to the projected extreme temperature changes following the 2015 Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda. Built environments include historical sites that represent irreplaceable cultural legacies and factors of the community's identity to be preserved over time. Originality/value This study shows the importance of conducting building energy simulation using physical and digital environments. Computational environment should be used during the development design phase by architects, engineers and urban planners to rank design solutions against a set of performance criteria and compare the expected impact on the building configuration and performance-based behaviour. This study integrates Grasshopper 3D and M-MACBETH.

Stellacci, S; Domingos, L; Resende, R

Integrated computational approaches for energy retrofit of historical buildings in extreme climate environments

International Journal Of Building Pathology And Adaptation

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJBPA-03-2022-0044

Social capital is increasingly recognized as a key determinant of adaptive capacity to climate change. Beyond formal adaptation infrastructure like insurance and public disaster support programmes, it can be difficult to identify the role that informal social capital-such as relationships, trust, and mutual support between community members-plays in climate adaptation. Drawing on a multi-site qualitative study in the Canadian Prairie region, this paper examines how three forms of social capital (bonding, bridging, and linking) shape rural communities' adaptation to climate extremes. Based on in-depth interviews with 163 community members, the findings demonstrate how social capital contributes to adaptive capacity, particularly in rural areas where more formal supports may be absent or lacking. We examine how social capital is affected by existing socio-economic sensitivities, such as rural depopulation, which can reduce informal social capital while simultaneously increasing people's dependence on it. The findings indicate the strengths and limitations of bonding and bridging social capital, particularly in the face of future climate extremes that may exceed local adaptive capacity. Further, we find that informal social capital may also reinforce gender inequality, exclusion, and inter-group differences, indicating its limitations for socially inclusive adaptation. Addressing these structural factors can help communities move past coping and toward long-term adaptation. In the face of increasing climate risks, our findings suggest the importance of public supports that are attentive to local strengths, gaps, and social relations.

Fletcher, AJ; Akwen, NS; Hurlbert, M; Diaz, HP

You relied on God and your neighbour to get through it: social capital and climate change adaptation in the rural Canadian Prairies

Regional Environmental Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01645-2

Climate change is currently one of the most critical issues in watershed management, and typical paddy systems should be addressed by watershed modeling approach in paddy-dominant landscapes. This study is designed to evaluate and enhance the watershed modeling approach currently used to characterize the impacts of climate change on hydrologic and water quality responses while considering a paddy environment. APEX-paddy, which is a newly developed and modified APEX (Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender) model for paddy ecosystems, was coupled with SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model to take advantage of the strengths of the two models. The resulting hybrid model, SWAPX, was calibrated and validated using observed data from 2008 to 2017 for two sites in the study watershed. Compared to SWAT, the accuracy of SWAPX was improved, showing statistically better results in the downstream including more paddy field areas. Ten GCMs were selected, and the characteristics of these GCMs were evaluated to assess the impacts of climate change scenarios. When applying the climate change scenarios to the SWAPX model, the results indicated that the future streamflow would increase due to increased rainfall. The results also showed that total nitrogen (T-N) loads would increase rapidly in the near future, then decrease gradually through the 2090s (2091-2100). T-N load was affected by the characteristics of rainfall patterns (e.g., daily maximum rainfall and rainfall intensity) occurring in various GCMs. This approach will be helpful for decision-makers in adapting to climate change and evaluating Best management practices (BMP) for paddy-dominant watersheds.

Kim, DH; Jang, T; Hwang, S

Evaluating impacts of climate change on hydrology and total nitrogen loads using coupled APEX-paddy and SWAT models

Paddy And Water Environment

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10333-020-00798-4

Identifying the natural and anthropogenic mechanisms of vegetation changes is the basis for adapting to climate change and optimizing human activities. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei megacity region, which is characterized by significant geomorphic gradients, was chosen as the case study area. The ordinary least squares (OLS) method was used to calculate the NDVI trends and related factors from 2000 to 2015. A geographic weighted regression (GWR) model of NDVI trends was constructed using 14 elements of seven categories. Combined with the GWR calculation results, the mechanisms of the effects of explanatory variables on NDVI changes were analyzed. The findings suggest that the overall vegetation displayed an increasing trend from 2000 to 2015, with an NDVI increase of ca. 0.005/year. Additionally, the NDVI fluctuations in individual years were closely related to precipitation and temperature anomalies. The spatial pattern of the NDVI change was highly consistent with the gradients of geomorphology, climate, and human activities, which have a tendency to gradually change from northwest to southeast. The dominant climate-driven area accounted for only 5.98% of the total study area. The vegetation improvement areas were regionally concentrated and had various driving factors, and vegetation degradation exhibited strong spatial heterogeneity. The vegetation degradation was mainly caused by human activities. Natural vegetation was improved because of natural factors and reductions in human activities. Moreover, cropland vegetation as well as urban and built-up area improvements were related to increased human actions and decreased natural effects. This study can assist in ecological restoration planning and ecological engineering implementation in the study area.

Zhao, YB; Sun, RH; Ni, ZY

Identification of Natural and Anthropogenic Drivers of Vegetation Change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Megacity Region

Remote Sensing

https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11101224

Ensuring higher productivity and profitability, gainful employment and adequate supply of food, feed, fodder and fiber for a growing human and livestock population, along with maintaining environmental sustainability are major challenges in agricultural production systems of arid and semi-arid regions. Integrated farming systems (IFS) comprising of many agri-innovations have the potential to meet such requirements. An association of individual and interdependent components of farming on a given piece of land, taking cognizance of available natural resources and the differential requirement of a wide range of farming community, remains the guiding principle of IFS. Research conducted across arid and semi-arid regions is reviewed here in order to understand the role of IFS in enhancing production, income and livelihood; minimizing risk associated with farming in arid and drier semi-arid regions; utilizing and conserving the resources; and in enhancing mitigation and adaptation to climate change. It has been conclusively established that IFS involving integration of different enterprises (crop, livestock, horticulture, forestry, poultry and fish) enhanced productivity, profitability, resource use efficiency, generated more employment and minimized resources degradation and risks. IFS, therefore, could be a key form of farming intensification needed for achieving future food security and environmental sustainability in arid and semi-arid regions. Promoting adoption of the location-specific IFS in future is linked directly with coherent policy, institutional commitment, infrastructure development, better coordination among different agricultural and rural development programme and agencies, and a stimulus package of incentives. The relevance of IFS in adaptation to and mitigation of climate change is also discussed.

Rathore, VS; Tanwar, SPS; Praveen-Kumar; Yadav, OP

Integrated Farming System: Key to sustainability in arid and semi-arid regions

Indian Journal Of Agricultural Sciences

None

Located in East Africa, Uganda is one of the most economically deprived countries that is likely to be dramatically affected by climate change. Over 50% of Ugandan families live in single-roomed overcrowded properties and over 60% of the country's urban population live in slums. Moreover, the gradual shift towards relatively modern and low thermal resistance building materials, in addition to imminent thermal discomfort due to global warming, may considerably affect the health and wellbeing of low-income people, the majority of whom live in low quality homes with very little or no access to basic amenities. This paper evaluates the effects of various construction methods as well as refurbishment strategies on thermal comfort in low-income houses in Uganda. It is aimed at helping low-income populations adapt to climate changes by developing simple, effective and affordable refurbishment strategies that could easily be applied to existing buildings. Dynamic thermal simulations are conducted in EnergyPlus. The adaptive model defined in BS EN 15251 and CIBSE TM52 is used to evaluate the risk and extent of thermal discomfort. Roofing methods/materials are found to be the key factor in reducing/increasing the risk of overheating. According to the results, roof insulation, painting the roof with low solar absorptance materials and inclusion of false ceilings are, respectively, the most effective and practical refurbishment strategies in terms of improving thermal comfort in low-income houses in Uganda. All refurbishment strategies helped to pass Criterion 3 of CIBSE TM52, as an indicator of future climate scenarios, making low-income houses/populations more climate resilient.

Hashemi, A

Climate Resilient Low-Income Tropical Housing

Energies

https://doi.org/10.3390/en9060468

Climate change has become a key environmental narrative of the 21st century. However, emphasis on the science of climate change has overshadowed studies focusing on human interpretations of climate history, of adaptation and resilience, and of explorations of the institutions and cultural coping strategies that may have helped people adapt to climate changes in the past. Moreover, although the idea of climate change has been subject to considerable scrutiny by the physical sciences, recent climate scholarship has highlighted the need for a re-examination of the cultural and spatial dimensions of climate, with contributions from the humanities and social sciences. Establishing a multidisciplinary dialogue and approach to climate research past, present, and future has arguably never been more important. This article outlines developments in historical climatology research and considers examples of integrated multidisciplinary approaches to climate, climatic variability, and climate change research, conducted across the physical sciences, social sciences, humanities, and the arts. We highlight the international Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) initiative as one example of such an integrated approach. Initially, ACRE began as a response from climate science to the needs of the agricultural sector in Queensland, Australia for a longer, more spatially, and temporally-complete database of the weather. ACRE has now evolved to embrace an international group of researchers working together across disciplines to integrate their efforts into a four-dimensional (4D) dynamical global historical climate-quality reanalysis (reconstruction). WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:164-174. doi: 10.1002/wcc.379 For further resources related to this article, please visit the .

Allan, R; Endfield, G; Damodaran, V; Adamson, G; Hannaford, M; Carroll, F; Macdonald, N; Groom, N; Jones, J; Williamson, F; Hendy, E; Holper, P; Arroyo-Mora, JP; Hughes, L; Bickers, R; Bliuc, AM

Toward integrated historical climate research: the example of Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Climate Change

https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.379

We develop a systems framework for exploring adaptation pathways to climate change among people in remote and marginalized regions. The framework builds on two common and seemingly paradoxical narratives about people in remote regions. The first is recognition that people in remote regions demonstrate significant resilience to climate and resource variability, and may therefore be among the best equipped to adapt to climate change. The second narrative is that many people in remote regions are chronically disadvantaged and therefore are among the most vulnerable to climate change impacts. These narratives, taken in isolation and in extremis, can have significant maladaptive policy and practice implications. From a systems perspective, both narratives may be valid, because they form elements of latent and dominant feedback loops that require articulation for a nuanced understanding of vulnerability-reducing and resilience-building responses in a joint framework. Through literature review and community engagement across three remote regions on different continents, we test the potential of the framework to assist dialogue about adaptation pathways in remote marginalized communities. In an adaptation pathway view, short-term responses to vulnerability can risk locking in a pathway that increases specific resilience but creates greater vulnerability in the long-term. Equally, longer-term actions towards increasing desirable forms of resilience need to take account of short-term realities to respond to acute and multiple needs of marginalized remote communities. The framework was useful in uniting vulnerability and resilience narratives, and broadening the scope for adaptation policy and action on adaptation pathways for remote regions. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Maru, YT; Smith, MS; Sparrow, A; Pinho, PF; Dube, OP

A linked vulnerability and resilience framework for adaptation pathways in remote disadvantaged communities

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.12.007

The prospect of climate change adds to future water supply and demand uncertainties and reinforces the need for institutions that facilitate adaptation to changing conditions and promote efficient management of supplies and facilities. High costs and limited opportunities for increasing water supplies with dams, reservoirs, and other infrastructure have curbed the traditional supply-side approach to planning in recent decades. Although new infrastructure may be an appropriate response to climate-induced shifts in hydrologic regimes and water demands, it is difficult to plan for and justify expensive new projects when the magnitude, timing, and even the direction of the changes are unknown. On the other hand, evaluating margins of safety for long-lived structures such as dams and levees should consider the prospect that a greenhouse warming could produce greater hydrologic variability and storm extremes. Integrated river basin management can provide cost-effective increases in reliable supplies in the event of greenhouse warming. With water becoming scarcer and susceptible to variations and changes in the climate, demand management is critical for balancing future demands with supplies. Although regulatory and voluntary measures belong in a comprehensive demand management strategy, greater reliance on markets and prices to allocate supplies and introduce incentives to conserve will help reduce the costs of adapting to climate change. Federal water planning guidelines allow for consideration of plans incorporating changes in existing statutes, regulations, and other institutional arrangements that might be needed to facilitate water transfers and promote efficient management practices in response to changing supply and demand conditions.

Frederick, KD

Adapting to climate impacts on the supply and demand for water

Climatic Change

https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005320504436

The effectiveness of climate adaptation policies in one sector can be compromised or aided by policies developed in another sector. When the focus of adaptation is a single geographical region, this potential for interaction between sectoral policies is heightened due to spatial, political and functional proximities. This paper analyses interactions within three suites of climate adaptation options developed for Australia's 'South-East Queensland' region relating to: (1) wetland migration, coastal infrastructure and planned retreat; (2) urban water security and energy demand; and (3) terrestrial biodiversity and agricultural viability. Using the concept of 'institutional interplay' to structure a process of dialogue amongst researchers, we identify a number of critical implementation requirements for successful regional-scale adaptation. There is a need for greater focus on neighbourhood or sub-regional scales of policy design and intervention, particularly for the coordination of adapted infrastructure and services to households. Policy-makers must also be more explicit in considering broader drivers of land-use change and economic adjustment likely to impact on proposed adaptations. In considering these issues, our paper also demonstrates a process for conducting cross-sectoral syntheses that can be employed in other regional-scale adaptation studies.

Taylor, BM; McAllister, RRJ

Bringing it all together: researcher dialogue to improve synthesis in regional climate adaptation in South-East Queensland, Australia

Regional Environmental Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0517-4

This study is aimed at investigating natural hazards vulnerability perceptions, as well as to explore Indigenous Knowledge Systems (IKS) important in climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in Ngamiland West District. The study also investigated the impact of the 2009/10 floods on the livelihoods of the people of Etsha-13 Village. The Quality of Life Approach was operationalized, with specific focus on vulnerability and resilience to flood impacts. The study design chose purposive sampling method to select the 21 In-Depth Interviews and 3 Focus Group Discussions. The qualitative data analysis software was used for analysis. The results show that the majority of the respondents perceived local communities highly vulnerable to floods and recurring droughts. The processes post 2009/10 Etsha 13 Village flood-hazards coupled with the people's state of high vulnerability and less resilient impacted on their quality of life particularly the being, belonging and becoming components. The provision of relief to the flood victims was perceived as biased towards those known to officers providing relief. The effectiveness of the relief operations were considered inadequate. The extent of damage caused by floods is influenced by the socioeconomic factors and psycho-social challenges the affected people had prior to the natural hazard event. The majority of the victims reported that they did not recover from the flood impacts. The IKS are still important in the sustenance of the livelihoods of the local communities. To reduce risks and future catastrophes there is need for a thorough implementation of the risk reduction strategy.

Dintwa, KF; Letamo, G; Navaneetham, K

Vulnerability perception, quality of life, and indigenous knowledge: A qualitative study of the population of Ngamiland West District, Botswana

International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102788

Linking social capital refers to the relationship between a community of insiders (e.g. family, relatives, neighbourhood), outside organizations (e.g. NGOs, aid agencies) and other individuals. Its value in climate change adaptation is widely accepted in developing countries because it can enable access to local knowledge and resources. Women in coastal Bangladesh are subject to exclusion from access to natural resources and are frequently unable to connect with outsiders because of socio-cultural and religious barriers leading to a lack of opportunity for interaction with linking actors. To explore changes in linking social capital for adaptation among women in the post-cyclone Aila-2009 context, a mixed method approach was employed in the villages of Gabura Union (Bangladesh). We argue that the social disruption caused by Aila allowed women to form links with nongovernment organizations (NGOs), contributing to local adaptive responses (e.g. in agricultural innovation and household handicrafts production). Our observations suggest that of the three commonly identified forms of social capital (i.e. bonding, bridging and linking), bonding relationships within the family appeared to become weaker after a major disaster, which may be attributed to the disruption of reciprocal kinship ties and greater mobility of male family members to search for new economic opportunities in cities. Over time, linking relationships with NGOs contributed to strengthening bonding and bridging among women through establishment of social networks for knowledge sharing and production. These altered relationships and enhancement of linking social capital have produced new adaptation strategies that persisted beyond the immediate post-cyclone recovery period.

Khalil, MB; Jacobs, BC; McKenna, K

Linking social capital and gender relationships in adaptation to a post-cyclone recovery context

International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102601

Preventing heat-related illness and death requires an understanding of who is at risk and why, and options for intervention. We sought to understand the drivers of socioeconomic disparities in heat-related vulnerability in New York City (NYC), the perceived risk of heat exposure and climate change, and barriers to protective behaviors. A random digit dial telephone survey of 801 NYC adults aged 18 and older was conducted from 22 September-1 October, 2015. Thirteen percent of the population did not possess an air conditioner (AC), and another 15% used AC never/infrequently. In adjusted models, odds of not possessing AC were greater for non-Hispanic blacks compared with other races/ethnicities, odds ratio (OR) = 2.0 (95% CI: 1.1, 3.5), and for those with low annual household income, OR = 3.1 (95% CI: 1.8, 5.5). Only 12% reported going to a public place with AC if they could not keep cool at home. While low-income individuals were less likely to be aware of heat warnings, they were more likely to be concerned that heat could make them ill and that climate change would affect their health than participants with a higher household income, OR = 1.6 (95% CI: 1.0, 2.3). In NYC, lack of access to AC partially explains disparities in heat-related health outcomes. Our results point to opportunities for knowledge building and engagement on heat-health awareness and climate change adaptation that can be applied in NYC and other metropolitan areas to improve and target public health prevention efforts.

Madrigano, J; Lane, K; Petrovic, N; Ahmed, M; Blum, M; Matte, T

Awareness, Risk Perception, and Protective Behaviors for Extreme Heat and Climate Change in New York City

International Journal Of Environmental Research And Public Health

https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15071433

This study was conducted to simulate the climate change impacts on potato production and evaluate the planting date and variety management as possible climate change adaptation strategies in Isfahan province, Iran. Two types of General Circulation Models (HadCM3 and IPCM4) and three scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) were employed. Daily climatic parameters were generated by Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS - WG). The SUBSTOR-Potato model was used to simulate the baseline and future potato growth and development. Results indicated that LARS-WG and SUBSTOR-Potato had an appropriate accuracy to simulate climatic and growth parameters of potato. Simulated results showed that the maximum leaf area index (LAI), days to tuber initiation (DTTI), days to harvest (DTH) and fresh tuber yield of evaluated variety will be declined as affected by future climate change. Based on the simulation results, delayed planting date (31 May) would increase tuber yield under future climatic conditions. In the contrary, early planting (30 April) would accelerate harmful effects of climate change on potato yield. The medium and early maturing varieties showed a better tuber yield under climate change conditions than commori (delayed maturing) variety. In essence, early maturing variety and delayed planting date are reported as the most efficient agronomical approaches for mitigating harmful effects of climate change and proposed to be considered in designing and managing potato ecosystems of the region for future climatic conditions. Generally, our results highlight the importance of considering early maturing variety and delayed planting date as the efficient agronomical approaches for mitigating harmful effects of climate change on potato production.

Adavi, Z; Moradi, R; Saeidnejad, AH; Tadayon, MR; Mansouri, H

Assessment of potato response to climate change and adaptation strategies

Scientia Horticulturae

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2017.10.017

Indigenous Arctic and Subarctic communities currently are facing a myriad of social and environmental changes. In response to these changes, studies concerning indigenous knowledge (IK) and climate change vulnerability, resiliency, and adaptation have increased dramatically in recent years. Risks to lives and livelihoods are often the focus of adaptation research; however, the cultural dimensions of climate change are equally important because cultural dimensions inform perceptions of risk. Furthermore, many Arctic and Subarctic IK climate change studies document observations of change and knowledge of the elders and older generations in a community, but few include the perspectives of the younger population. These observations by elders and older generations form a historical baseline record of weather and climate observations in these regions. However, many indigenous Arctic and Subarctic communities are composed of primarily younger residents. We focused on the differences in the cultural dimensions of climate change found between young adults and elders. We outlined the findings from interviews conducted in four indigenous communities in Subarctic Alaska. The findings revealed that (1) intergenerational observations of change were common among interview participants in all four communities, (2) older generations observed more overall change than younger generations interviewed by us, and (3) how change was perceived varied between generations. We defined observations as the specific examples of environmental and weather change that were described, whereas perceptions referred to the manner in which these observations of change were understood and contextualized by the interview participants. Understanding the differences in generational observations and perceptions of change are key issues in the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

Herman-Mercer, NM; Matkin, E; Laituri, MJ; Toohey, RC; Massey, M; Elder, K; Schuster, PF; Mutter, EA

Changing times, changing stories: generational differences in climate change perspectives from four remote indigenous communities in Subarctic Alaska

Ecology And Society

https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-08463-210328

The contribution of the informal community sector to the development of collective response strategies to socioecological change is not well researched. In this article, we examine the role of community opinion leaders in developing and mobilising stocks of adaptive capacity. In so doing, we reveal a largely unexplored mechanism for building on latent social capital and associated networks that have the potential to transcend local-scale efforts - an enduring question in climate change adaptation and other cross-scalar sustainability issues. Participants drawn from diverse spheres of community activity in the Sunshine Coast, Australia, were interviewed about their strategies for influencing their community objectives and the degree to which they have engaged with responding to climate change. The results show community opinion leaders to be politically engaged through rich bridging connections with other community organisations, and vertically with policy-makers at local, state, national and international levels. Despite this latent potential, the majority of community opinion leaders interviewed were not strategically engaged with responding to climate change. This finding suggests that more work is needed to connect networks knowledgeable about projected climate change impacts with local networks of community opinion leaders. Attention to the type of community-based strategies considered effective and appropriate by community opinion leaders and their organisations also suggests avenues for policy-makers to facilitate community engagement in responding to climate change across sectors likely to be affected by its impacts. Opportunities to extend understanding of adaptive capacity within the community sector through further research are also suggested.

Keys, N; Thomsen, DC; Smith, TF

Adaptive capacity and climate change: the role of community opinion leaders

Local Environment

https://doi.org/10.1080/13549839.2014.967758

Objective: To determine key points of intervention in urban food systems to improve the climate resilience, equity and healthfulness of the whole system. Design: The paper brings together evidence from a 3-year, Australia-based mixed-methods research project focused on climate change adaptation, cities, food systems and health. In an integrated analysis of the three research domains encompassing the production, distribution and consumption sectors of the food chain - the paper examines the efficacy of various food subsystems (industrial, alternative commercial and civic) in achieving climate resilience and good nutrition. Setting: Greater Western Sydney, Australia. Subjects: Primary producers, retailers and consumers in Western Sydney. Results: This overarching analysis of the tripartite study found that: (i) industrial food production systems can be more environmentally sustainable than alternative systems, indicating the importance of multiple food subsystems for food security; (ii) a variety of food distributors stocking healthy and sustainable items is required to ensure that these items are accessible, affordable and available to all; and (iii) it is not enough that healthy and sustainable foods are produced or sold, consumers must also want to consume them. In summary, a resilient urban food system requires that healthy and sustainable food items are produced, that consumers can attain them and that they actually wish to purchase them. Conclusions: This capstone paper found that the interconnected nature of the different sectors in the food system means that to improve environmental sustainability, equity and population health outcomes, action should focus on the system as a whole and not just on any one sector.

James, SW; Friel, S

An integrated approach to identifying and characterising resilient urban food systems to promote population health in a changing climate

Public Health Nutrition

https://doi.org/10.1017/S1368980015000610

Climate change is an essential environmental challenge nowadays. Its effects are already being felt in multiple ways. In the future, we will also have to adapt to its effects because of our farming and our daily lives. In our research, we assessed the climate sensitivity of the lowland areas of Hungary through the changes in landscapes and the changes in groundwater resources that have the greatest impact on agriculture, using data from more than half of a century. We have quantified that at the mid-territory level (5-10 thousand km(2)) the groundwater resources show up to 3-5 km(3)/year changes in both positive and negative directions due to climatic effects. This significantly exceeds the anthropogenic water uses (the total water use of Hungary is about 5 km(3) per year), so the effect of climate is the determining factor in the changes of regional water resources. Future changes in water circulation were modelled using the MIKE-SHE model in two micro-regions in Hungary. We have found that already at the level of the small catchments presented in our study, the water shortage increases by hundreds of millions of m(3) per year due to the expected increase in temperature (mainly due to the increase in evapotranspiration), which cannot be compensated by current water supply solutions. Model simulations have confirmed previous results showing that groundwater movements play a very important role even in lowland landscapes. Based on our research, we would like to draw the attention of decision-makers and agricultural experts to the fact that current methods (irrigation, regional water transfers) are not sufficient for successful adaptation to climate change. So, it is not the limited precipitation but the inappropriate agricultural practices that cause a real threat in a changing climate. Based on our research, we have made a proposal for the adaptation of agriculture to climate change.

Tran, HQ; Fehér, ZZ; Túri, N; Rakonczai, J

Climate Change as an Environmental Threat on the Central Plains of the Carpathian Basin Based on Regional Water Balances

Geographica Pannonica

https://doi.org/10.5937/gp26-37271

Many governments and organisations are currently aligning many aspects of their policies and practices to the sustainable development goals (SDGs). Achieving the SDGs should increase social-ecological resilience to shocks like climate change and its impacts. Here, we consider the relationship amongst the three elements-the SDGs, social-ecological resilience and climate change-as a positive feedback loop. We argue that long-term memory encoded in historical, archaeological and related 'palaeo-data' is central to understanding each of these elements of the feedback loop, especially when long-term fluctuations are inherent in social-ecological systems and their responses to abrupt change. Yet, there is scant reference to the valuable contribution that can be made by these data from the past in the SDGs or their targets and indicators. The historical and archaeological records emphasise the importance of some key themes running through the SDGs including how diversity, inclusion, learning and innovation can reduce vulnerability to abrupt change, and the role of connectivity. Using paleo-data, we demonstrate how changes in the extent of water-related ecosystems as measured by indicator 6.6.1 may simply be related to natural hydroclimate variability, rather than reflecting actual progress towards Target 6.6. This highlights issues associated with using SDG indicator baselines predicated on short-term and very recent data only. Within the context of the contributions from long-term data to inform the positive feedback loop, we ask whether our current inability to substantively combat anthropogenic climate change threatens achieving both the SDGS and enhanced resilience to climate change itself. We argue that long-term records are central to understanding how and what will improve resilience and enhance our ability to both mitigate and adapt to climate change. However, for uptake of these data to occur, improved understanding of their quality and potential by policymakers and managers is required.

Allen, KJ; Reide, F; Gouramanis, C; Keenan, B; Stoffel, M; Hu, A; Ionita, M

Coupled insights from the palaeoenvironmental, historical and archaeological archives to support social-ecological resilience and the sustainable development goals

Environmental Research Letters

https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6967

Adapting to climate change as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is of paramount importance in the near future. Therefore, recognition of spatial and temporal variations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration both globally and regionally is critical. The goal of this study was to analyze spatiotemporal patterns of atmospheric CO2 concentration (XCO2) for Iran over the period from 2003 to 2020 to shed light on the role of various biotic and abiotic controls. First, by using atmospheric XCO2 data obtained from the SCIAMACHY and GOSAT satellite instruments, a series of spatio-temporal XCO2 distribution maps were developed. Second, to understand of the potential causes underlying the spatio-temporal distributions in XCO2, the correlations between monthly XCO2 and vegetation abundance, air temperature, precipitation, and fossil fuel CO2 emissions were examined. The spatio-temporal patterns in XCO2 indicated an increasing gradient of XCO2 from north to south and from west to east in Iran, with the highest XCO2 in the central, southern and southeastern parts of the country. The findings revealed that XCO2 was negatively correlated with vegetation abundance and precipitation, and positively correlated with air temperature in different months from 2003 to 2020. Among the different explanatory variables, vegetation abundance explained most of the spatial variation in XCO2. Furthermore, in spring (April and May), which has the highest amount of vegetation abundance and precipitation, biotic controls had a substantial impact on the diffusion and absorption of XCO2 in the northern and northwestern parts of Iran. Our results suggest that CO2 is moved from the center of Iran to the outer parts of the country in summer (July-September) and vice-versa in winter (January-March). Our findings provide policy and decision makers with crucial information regarding the spatio-temporal dynamics in XCO2 to reduce and, ultimately, halt its increase.

Mousavi, SM; Dinan, NM; Ansarifard, S; Sonnentag, O

Analyzing spatio-temporal patterns in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration across Iran from 2003 to 2020

Atmospheric Environment-X

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aeaoa.2022.100163

Considering the periodical changes in stream flow, it is essential to use rule curves for the optimal operation of reservoirs. This study aims to investigate the performance of Zarrineh Rud reservoir by implementing strategies for adaptation to climate change. Daily meteorological and hydrometric data were collected from selected stations upstream of the dam over a 26-year period (1990-2016). Using sequent peak algorithm (SPA) and with respect to the drinking and agricultural water demand, the active storage and its rule curve were simulated. Then, the optimal rule curve was procured through GA-SPA, aiming to minimize the downstream water shortage. The future climate data were downscaled using SDSM based on CanEsm2 model and under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios for near (2020-2038), middle (2039-2058), and far (2059-2076) future periods. Then, the rainfall-runoff of HBV-light model was employed to calculate reservoir inflow for the mentioned periods. Finally, in view of environmental demand, reservoir performance indices were calculated for both non-adaptive and adaptive (static and dynamic hedging rules) policies. Results showed a significant decrease in the annual reservoir inflow compared to the baseline for all future periods. The least decrease was observed in RCP2.6 (nearly 23%) for the near future, whereas the largest decrease was in RCP8 (39%) for the middle period. Simulation with the static hedging rules managed to significantly reduce the average vulnerability index (by 60%) compared to no hedging, while the dynamic hedging rules outperformed static hedging rules only by 9%. Therefore, considering the insignificant improvement in reservoir performance using dynamic rules and their complexity, static hedging rules are recommended as the better option for adaptation during climate change.

Moghaddasi, M; Anvari, S; Akhondi, N

A trade-off analysis of adaptive and non-adaptive future optimized rule curves based on simulation algorithm and hedging rules

Theoretical And Applied Climatology

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-03930-y

Climate change is easily the most serious human and environmental crisis of the present generation. While awareness of the existence and consequences of climate change is becoming widespread, the specific effects on agriculture and the extent to which innovative climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices are being adopted remain unclear. This study was conducted in three local municipalities of the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa to determine the patterns of smallholder choice of alternative climate-smart agricultural practices and the factors affecting such choices. It was particularly crucial to investigate why adaptation of CSA practices continues to be lower than expectation despite awareness of their benefits, thus highlighting the social and cultural limits to adaptation to climate change. A total of 210 households were enumerated on the basis of their involvement in crop and livestock farming. The data were analyzed by means of multinomial logistic model, which was applied separately to individual local municipality data sets and a combined provincial data set, and it was revealed that most farmers were not being sufficiently motivated to move from established practices to adopt new CSA practices. The most influential factors in the decision process as to what CSA practice to adopt were primary occupation, farming system type, household size, age and membership of farmer groups. It seemed that asset fixity constrained farmers to continue with existing practices rather than shift to new, more profitable practices, a situation that can be resolved by external intervention by government agencies and/or other entities. Awareness creation targeting remote rural areas as well as institutions to ease farmers' access to credit and information will contribute to higher adoption rates, which are likely to lead to enhanced food security and standard of living for rural dwellers as their agricultural production and productivity improve.

Obi, A; Maya, O

Innovative Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) Practices in the Smallholder Farming System of South Africa

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su13126848

Trend and stationarity analysis of climatic variables are essential for understanding climate variability and provide useful information about the vulnerability and future changes, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. In this study, various climatic zones of Iran were investigated to assess the relationship between the trend and the stationarity of the climatic variables. The Mann-Kendall test was considered to identify the trend, while the trend free pre-whitening approach was applied for eliminating serial correlation from the time-series. Meanwhile, time series stationarity was tested by Dickey-Fuller and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin tests. The results indicated an increasing trend for mean air temperature series at most of the stations over various climatic zones, however, after eliminating the serial correlation factor, this increasing trend changes to an insignificant decreasing trend at a 95% confidence level. The seasonal mean air temperature trend suggested a significant increase in the majority of the stations. The mean air temperature increased more in northwest towards central parts of Iran that mostly located in arid and semiarid climatic zones. Precipitation trend reveals an insignificant downward trend in most of the series over various climatic zones; furthermore, most of the stations follow a decreasing trend for seasonal precipitation. Furthermore, spatial patterns of trend and seasonality of precipitation and mean air temperature showed that the northwest parts of Iran and margin areas of the Caspian Sea are more vulnerable to the changing climate with respect to the precipitation shortfalls and warming. Stationarity analysis indicated that the stationarity of climatic series influences on their trend; so that, the series which have significant trends are not static. The findings of this investigation can help planners and policy-makers in various fields related to climatic issues, implementing better management and planning strategies to adapt to climate change and variability over Iran.

Mirdashtvan, M; Mohseni Saravi, M

Influence of non-stationarity and auto-correlation of climatic records on spatio-temporal trend and seasonality analysis in a region with prevailing arid and semi-arid climate, Iran

Journal Of Arid Land

https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-020-0100-z

Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) relies upon the capacity of ecosystems to buffer communities against the adverse impacts of climate change. Maintaining ecosystems that deliver critical services to communities can also provide co-benefits beyond adaptation, such as climate mitigation and protection of biological diversity and livelihoods. EbA has, to a limited extent, drawn upon indigenous and local knowledge for defining critical services and for implementing EbA in decision-making. This is a paradox given that the primary focus of EbA is to enable communities to adapt to climate change. The purpose of this study was to elucidate EbA strategies that take into account the knowledge of Sami reindeer herders about pastures in tundra regions. We first examined what constitutes critical services through a synthesis of data and literature. We thereafter used content analysis of 91 land use cases from 2010 to 2018 to investigate to what extent the herders' knowledge and maps over seasonal pastures and migratory routes are used in local decision-making. Finally, we propose EbA strategies of relevance to Sami communities and pastoral communities elsewhere. Our analysis revealed that reindeer herders and organizations representing their interests perceived threats from green energy development, tourism, recreation, public road construction and powerlines. These threats included the loss of key habitats and the loss of connectivity for migration between seasonal pastures. Pastoralists' knowledge is incorporated through participatory tools to protect the ecosystems and services crucial for pastoralists, but multiple competing land uses result in incremental loss of pastures regardless. Synthesis and applications. Protecting pasture ecosystems and the services they deliver, including the connectivity between pastures, are necessary Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) strategies to buffer the adverse effects of climate change. Drawing on pastoralists' knowledge to elicit EbA strategies can inform decision-making, but it is equally important to implement this knowledge for prioritizing adaptation needs in the assessment of competing land use.

Hausner, VH; Engen, S; Brattland, C; Fauchald, P

Sami knowledge and ecosystem-based adaptation strategies for managing pastures under threat from multiple land uses

Journal Of Applied Ecology

https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.13559

The classification of small catchments with respect to low flow risk is needed by water and environmental managers to plan adaptation measures for freshwater streams. In this study a new approach is presented to assess the risk of seasonal low flow in the Pleistocene landscape of the Federal State of Brandenburg in Germany. Seasonal low flow and drought in small streams is very common in this region and is predicted to increase due to climate change within the next decades. Data of 15 years (1991-2006) of daily discharge at 37 small catchments (<500 km(2)) and rainfall data from the same region were used. Principal component analyses were applied to the two data sets separately. The first five principal components of the discharge data, principal components of a precipitation data set covering the same catchments and catchment characteristics were used to explain the patterns found. The first five discharge components explained 72.9% of the total variance in the data set. The first component reflected the general regional discharge pattern. Components 2 and 3 of the discharge data could be related to spatial patterns of precipitation. Components 4 and 5 of the discharge data reflected geohydrologic processes within the catchments. In order to identify catchments with high risk with respect to low flows, component three and five were important as they both identified catchments with faster decrease of flows during summer. These components were used to estimate low flow risk. Catchments located in the northeast of Brandenburg, especially those in the Barnim highlands north and east of Berlin, were identified to be prone to seasonal low flow. There water management measures to adapt to climate change are needed the most. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thomas, B; Lischeid, G; Steidl, J; Dannowski, R

Regional catchment classification with respect to low flow risk in a Pleistocene landscape

Journal Of Hydrology

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.10.020

This study, carried out in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, was particularly interested in women farmers' access to social learning spaces for expanding their knowledge about farming in the context of climate change. Small-scale women and peasant farmers face historical intersectional inequalities as a result of the colonial and apartheid past which has continued to disadvantage women in the present through exclusion, limited or no access to finance, insecure or no land tenure, little bargaining power and unequal access to water. The gender prejudices and unequal access to resources experienced by women is brought into sharp relief by climate change. The article provides a case study of an agroecology movement led by women farmers that promotes climate-appropriate, low-cost farming practices using community and home gardens. The practices are tried out and further developed by women farmers themselves, relying on agroecology-informed extension services, open dialogue and the support of communities of practice. Unlike traditional top-down approaches to farmer learning common in public extension services, extension officers in the movement participate in creating conditions for co-learning and co-construction of new knowledge - that is, social learning - thus responding directly to their needs as farmers. The lead researcher joined in and observed farming and learning activities following an ethnographic approach. Farmers and other movement members were engaged in semi-structured interviews which explored the value derived from social learning (Wenger-Trayner & Wenger-Trayner 2020). The article concludes that the movement is responding to many of the intersectional challenges that women farmers in the Eastern Cape face. Further, its social learning approach holds potential for expanding women farmers' ability to provide for themselves and their communities and inform their climate change adaptation.

Chanyau, L; Rosenberg, E

Women farmers leading and co-learning in an agroecology movement at the intersections of gender and climate

Agenda-Empowering Women For Gender Equity

https://doi.org/10.1080/10130950.2023.2239313

Developing scientific information that is used in policy and practice has been a longstanding challenge in many sectors and disciplines, including climate change adaptation for natural resource management. One approach to address this problem encourages scientists and decision-makers to co-produce usable information collaboratively. Researchers have proposed general principles for climate science co-production, yet few studies have applied and evaluated these principles in practice. In this study, climate change researchers and natural resource managers co-produced climate-related knowledge that was directly relevant for on-going habitat management planning. We documented our methods and assessed how and to what extent the process led to the near-term use of co-produced information, while also identifying salient information needs for future research. The co-production process resulted in: 1) an updated natural resource management plan that substantially differed from the former plan in how it addressed climate change, 2) increased understanding of climate change, its impacts, and management responses among agency staff, and 3) a prioritized list of climate-related information needs that would be useful for management decision-making. We found that having a boundary spanner-an intermediary with relevant science and management expertise that enables exchange between knowledge producers and users-guide the co-production process was critical to achieving outcomes. Central to the boundary spanner's role were a range of characteristics and skills, such as knowledge of relevant science, familiarity with management issues, comfort translating science into practice, and an ability to facilitate climate-informed planning. By describing specific co-production methods and evaluating their effectiveness, we offer recommendations for others looking to co-produce climate change information to use in natural resource management planning and implementation.

Cross, MS; Oakes, LE; Kretser, HE; Bredehoft, R; Dey, P; Mahoney, A; Smith, N; Tator, I; Wasseen, J

Tackling the Science Usability Gap in a Warming World: Co-Producing Useable Climate Information for Natural Resource Management

Environmental Management

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-022-01718-4

Ranchers in the western United States have long managed working landscapes prone to drought and wildfires. As the frequency and intensity of climate change impacts increase, ranchers will be front-line workers in the climate crisis-both adapting to climate impacts and managing landscapes with mitigation potential. This Forum paper first summarizes recent peer-reviewed research on ranchers and climate change in the western United States and then offers conceptual clarification of climate change adaptation based on this empirical research. Many ranchers remain unconvinced by climate science and express skepticism about long-term and anthropogenic climate change, though this may change as climate extremes intensify. Researchers working with ranchers often avoid climate change terminology, instead focusing on impacts, especially drought. Ranchers adjust their land and livestock management practices, as well as livelihood strategies, to cope with weather variability. Ranchers identify increasing management flexibility and diversifying ranch income as key adaptation strategies. While studies often focus on how to transition ranchers from reactive and toward proactive adaptation planning, few ranchers are actively planning for climatic change. Yet in this ranching context, many practices that begin as reactive coping strategies become longer-term adaptations as the impact, such as drought or recurrent wildfire smoke, persists. As ranchers observe positive outcomes of short-term adaptations or are unable to return to previous strategies, reactive coping strategies become proactive. We provide a conceptual clarification of adaptation in ranching systems, forwarding adaptation as a process, inclusive of a continuum from coping actions to more transformative adaptation strategies. Centering ranchers' experiences, perceptions, and responses related to climate change can help land managers, agricultural advisors, and policy makers increase the pace and scale of adaptation and mitigation in range systems. (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. on behalf of The Society for Range Management.

Saliman, A; Petersen-Rockney, M

Rancher Experiences and Perceptions of Climate Change in the Western United States

Rangeland Ecology & Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rama.2022.06.001

Urban informal settlements or slums are among the most vulnerable places to climate-change-related health risks. Yet, little data exist documenting environmental and human health vulnerabilities in slums or how to move research to action. Citizen science, where residents co-define research objectives with professionals, collect and analyze data, and help translate findings into ameliorative actions, can help fill data gaps and contribute to more locally relevant climate justice interventions. This paper highlights a citizen-science, climate justice planning process in the Mukuru informal settlement of Nairobi, Kenya. We describe how residents, non-governmental organizations and academics partnered to co-create data-gathering processes and generated evidence to inform an integrated, climate justice strategy called the Mukuru Special Planning Area, Integrated Development Plan. The citizen science processes revealed that <1% of residents had access to a private in-home toilet, and 37% lacked regular access to safe and affordable drinking water. We found that 42% of households were subject to regular flooding, 39% reported fair or poor health, and 40% reported a child in the household was stunted. These and other data were used in a community planning process where thousands of residents co-designed improvement and climate change adaptation strategies, such as flood mitigation, formalizing roads and pathways with drainage, and a water and sanitation infrastructure plan for all. We describe the participatory processes used by citizen scientists to generate data and move evidence into immediate actions to protect human health and a draft a long-range, climate justice strategy. The processes used to create the Mukuru Special Planning Area redevelopment plan suggest that participatory, citizen-led urban science can inform local efforts for health equity and global goals of climate justice.

Corburn, J; Njoroge, P; Weru, J; Musya, M

Urban Climate Justice, Human Health, and Citizen Science in Nairobi's Informal Settlements

Urban Science

https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci6020036

BackgroundSome latrines remain unused even under conditions of high coverage in rural areas of low- and middle-income countries. Not much is known on household latrine use in the long term in the absence of an intervention. The current work assesses drivers and barriers to sustained use of a ventilated improved pit latrine (Blair VIP) design where it originated and how rural households adapt it to climate change. MethodsA mixed methods study was conducted from November 2020 to May 2021 among rural households of Mbire district, Zimbabwe. A cross sectional survey of 238 households with Blair ventilated improved pit (BVIP) latrines was conducted using a questionnaire and a latrine observation checklist. Data were analysed using logistic regression. Qualitative data were collected using six focus groups among house heads and analysed by thematic analysis. ResultThe latrine has perceived health, non-health and hygiene benefits for its sustained use. However, there are design, environmental and social barriers. The quantitative study indicated that determinants of latrine use were contextual (individual and household levels) and technology (individual level) factors. Focus groups indicated that latrine use was influenced by social, technology and contextual factors at multiple level factors. Interplay of factors influenced the intention to adapt the BVIP latrine to climate change. Local climate change adaptation strategies for the latrine were odour and erosion control, construction of the conventional latrine design and raised structures. ConclusionThe conventional BVIP latrine design is durable and relatively resilient to climate change with high local household use. High construction cost of the latrine causes households to build incomplete and poor quality designs which affect odour and fly control. These are barriers to sustained latrine use. The government should implement the new sanitation policy which considers alternative sanitation options and offer community support for adapting sanitation to climate change.

Kanda, A; Ncube, EJ; Voyi, K

Drivers and barriers to sustained use of Blair ventilated improved pit latrine after nearly four decades in rural Zimbabwe

Plos One

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0265077

Providing comprehensive regional- and local-scale information on changes observed in the climate system plays a vital role in planning effective and efficient climate change adaptation options, specifically over resource-limited regions. Here, we assess changes in temperature and heat waves over different regions of the African continent, with a focus on spatiotemporal trends and the time of emergence of change in hot extremes from natural variability. We analyse absolute and relative threshold indices. Data sets include temperatures from observations (CRUTS4.03 and BEST) and from three representative state-of-the-art reanalyses (ERA5, MERRA2 and JRA-55) for the common period 1980-2018. Statistically significant warming is observed over all regions of Africa in temperature time series from CRU observations and reanalysis data, although the trend strength varies between data sets. Also, extreme temperatures and heat wave indices from BEST observations and all reanalysis data sets reveal increasing trends over all regions of the African continent. However, there are differences in both trend strength and time evolution of heat wave indices between different reanalysis data sets. Most data sets agree in identifying 2010 as a peak heat year over Northern and Western Africa while Eastern and Southern Africa experienced the highest heat wave occurrence in 2016. Our results clearly reveal that heat wave occurrences have emerged from natural climate variability in Africa. The earliest time of emergence takes place in the Northern Africa region in the early 2000s while in the other African regions emergence over natural variability is found mainly after 2010. This also depends on the respective index metrics, where indices based on more consecutive days show later emergence of heat wave trends. Overall, significant warming and an increase in heat wave occurrence is found in all regions of Africa and has emerged from natural variability in the past one or two decades.

Engdaw, MM; Ballinger, AP; Hegerl, GC; Steiner, AK

Changes in temperature and heat waves over Africa using observational and reanalysis data sets

International Journal Of Climatology

https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7295

Wooded hay meadows provide livestock fodder in the form of both foliage from pollarded trees and hay from the understorey, and can be part of an environmentally friendly agroforestry system. However, trees may also have a negative effect on fodder production. Such trade-offs between productivity and sustainability in farming are poorly understood, especially in high-latitude areas. We studied hay production in two sites in the same wooded meadow in western Norway, one restored 6 years earlier than the other, to examine whether there were differences in hay production over a 4-year pollarding cycle. We measured production in transects starting from the trunks of pollarded and non-pollarded (reference) trees and running out into open meadow, and transects entirely in open meadow. We examined whether pollarding influenced hay production, and whether hay production was related to the distance from the tree trunk. Total production differed between the two sites, indicating that both time since restoration and differences in overall tree influence affected hay production. We observed a strong and immediate pollarding effect (increase in hay production) due to reduced tree influence. Trees have a negative influence on production as demonstrated by the increase in hay production with increasing distance from the tree trunk. However, additional dry fodder produced by harvesting leaves from pollarded trees more than compensates for reduction in hay production under pollarded trees. Moreover, the understorey production in the wooded hay meadow is at the same level as fertilized meadows in Norway when we include the fodder consumed by sheep during spring and autumn grazing. A wooded hay meadow is an environmentally friendly production system that does not compromise food production. Its tree component can also play an important role in climate change adaptation and mitigation, and supports higher biodiversity than industrial food production systems.

Rydgren, K; Austad, I; Hamre, LN; Töpper, JP

Wooded hay meadows as viable production systems in sustainable small-scale farming

Agroforestry Systems

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10457-020-00570-x

To limit warming to well below 2 degrees C, most scenario projections rely on greenhouse gas removal technologies (GGRTs); one such GGRT uses soil carbon sequestration (SCS) in agricultural land. In addition to their role in mitigating climate change, SCS practices play a role in delivering agroecosystem resilience, climate change adaptability and food security. Environmental heterogeneity and differences in agricultural practices challenge the practical implementation of SCS, and our analysis addresses the associated knowledge gap. Previous assessments have focused on global potentials, but there is a need among policymakers to operationalise SCS. Here, we assess a range of practices already proposed to deliver SCS, and distil these into a subset of specific measures. We provide a multidisciplinary summary of the barriers and potential incentives towards practical implementation of these measures. First, we identify specific practices with potential for both a positive impact on SCS at farm level and an uptake rate compatible with global impact. These focus on: (a) optimising crop primary productivity (e.g. nutrient optimisation, pH management, irrigation); (b) reducing soil disturbance and managing soil physical properties (e.g. improved rotations, minimum till); (c) minimising deliberate removal of C or lateral transport via erosion processes (e.g. support measures, bare fallow reduction); (d) addition of C produced outside the system (e.g. organic manure amendments, biochar addition); (e) provision of additional C inputs within the cropping system (e.g. agroforestry, cover cropping). We then consider economic and non-cost barriers and incentives for land managers implementing these measures, along with the potential externalised impacts of implementation. This offers a framework and reference point for holistic assessment of the impacts of SCS. Finally, we summarise and discuss the ability of extant scientific approaches to quantify the technical potential and externalities of SCS measures, and the barriers and incentives to their implementation in global agricultural systems.

Sykes, AJ; Macleod, M; Eory, V; Rees, RM; Payen, F; Myrgiotis, V; Williams, M; Sohi, S; Hillier, J; Moran, D; Manning, DAC; Goglio, P; Seghetta, M; Williams, A; Harris, J; Dondini, M; Walton, J; House, J; Smith, P

Characterising the biophysical, economic and social impacts of soil carbon sequestration as a greenhouse gas removal technology

Global Change Biology

https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14844

Western U.S. wildfire area burned has increased dramatically over the last half-century. How contemporary extent and severity of wildfires compare to the pre-settlement patterns to which ecosystems are adapted is debated. We compared large wildfires in Pacific Northwest forests from 1984 to 2015 to modeled historic fire regimes. Despite late twentieth-century increases in area burned, we show that Pacific Northwest forests have experienced an order of magnitude less fire over 32 yr than expected under historic fire regimes. Within fires that have burned, severity distributions are disconnected from historical references. From 1984 to 2015, 1.6 M ha burned; this is 13.3-18.9 M ha less than expected. Deficits were greatest in dry forest ecosystems adapted to frequent, low-severity fire, where 72-10.3 M ha of low-severity fire was missing, compared to a 0.2-1.1 M ha deficit of high-severity fire. When these dry forests do burn, we observed that 36% burned with high-severity compared to 6-9% historically. We found smaller fire deficits, 0.3-0.6 M ha, within forest ecosystems adapted to infrequent, high-severity fire. However, we also acknowledge inherent limitations in evaluating contemporary fire regimes in ecosystems which historically burned infrequently and for which fires were highly episodic. The magnitude of contemporary fire deficits and disconnect in burn severity compared to historic fire regimes have important implications for climate change adaptation. Within forests characterized by low- and mixed-severity historic fire regimes, simply increasing wildfire extent while maintaining current trends in burn severity threatens ecosystem resilience and will potentially drive undesirable ecosystem transformations. Restoring natural fire regimes requires management that facilitates much more low- and moderate-severity fire.

Haugo, RD; Kellogg, BS; Cansler, CA; Kolden, CA; Kemp, KB; Robertson, JC; Metlen, KL; Vaillant, NM; Restaino, CM

The missing fire: quantifying human exclusion of wildfire in Pacific Northwest forests, USA

Ecosphere

https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2702

Declining soil fertility and limited farmer access to inorganic fertilizer frequently cause sub-optimal grain yields throughout sub-Saharan Africa. Farm productivity is also at risk from extreme weather and future climate change. Significant uncertainty remains in predicting climate in Africa, increasing the challenge of planning for climate change adaptation. Sorghum is adapted to African climate patterns and is predicted to maintain widespread suitability across different African climatic zones under climate change. Sorghum's drought tolerance and ability to withstand water logging make it an important crop for maintaining productive agroecosystems under a changing climate. Due to its status as a staple grain, improved sorghum management can provide smallholder farmers with stability in their household nutritional needs. We reviewed sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) yield trends across nutrient management scenarios using meta-analysis. We compared yield across eight nutrient management practices: (i) N-only, (ii) P-only, (iii) N and P, (iv) N and P microdose, (v) legume management, (vi) manure addition, (vii) organic matter (OM) amendment, and (viii) mixed amendment. Our review demonstrated (1) yield improvement considering all scenarios averaged 66 % relative to no nutrient inputs, (2) yield under chemical fertilizer amendment increased by 47-98 % of control yield, (3) yield under organic nutrient amendment increased by 43-87 % of control yield, and (4) the profitability of a management scenario was not solely determined by the magnitude of yield increase. For example, due to the high cost of fertilizer, addition of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) generated the largest yield increase, but the lowest profit, in two of three countries analyzed. In contrast, an edible legume in rotation averaged 43 % yield improvement relative to no nutrient inputs and a net profit of US $146 to $263 per hectare. Facilitating access to both fertilizer inputs and diversified rotations has the greatest potential to increase grain yield in Africa.

Tonitto, C; Ricker-Gilbert, JE

Nutrient management in African sorghum cropping systems: applying meta-analysis to assess yield and profitability

Agronomy For Sustainable Development

https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-015-0336-8

Climate change is transforming the decision-making landscape for many conservation organizations. Conservation planning and implementation under climate change are challenging due to uncertainties about climate impacts and the effectiveness of adaptation options. Strategically building flexibility into conservation plans so they can be adjusted over time in response to unforeseen events, or new information, is one solution to this challenge. Yet, there are a wide range of mechanisms to choose from to enhance flexibility and so there is a need for a more structured approach to inform building flexibility into conservation plans. To achieve this, we conceptualize flexible strategies as three types, procedural flexibility, resource flexibility, and action flexibility, and explicitly link these to climate risks and steps in conservation decision-making processes. We discuss how this framework can guide choices of flexible strategies, including identifying the costs and benefits, and illustrate this using examples. This provides a new conceptual tool for conservation organizations to make strategic choices about flexibility for climate adaptation.

Rhodes, JR; Armsworth, PR; Iacona, G; Shah, P; Gordon, A; Wilson, KA; Runting, RK; Bryan, BA

Flexible conservation decisions for climate adaptation

One Earth

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2022.05.010

Climate adaptation is a growing imperative across all scales and sectors of governance. This often requires changes in institutions, which can be difficult to realize. Explicitly process-oriented approaches explaining how and why institutional change occurs are lacking. Overcoming this gap is vital to move beyond either input-oriented (e.g., capacity) or output-oriented (e.g., assessment) approaches, to understand how changes actually occur for addressing complex and contested governance issues. This paper analyses causal conditions and mechanisms by which institutions develop in climate adaptation governance. It focuses on urban climate governance through an in-depth case study of Santiago, Chile, over a 12-year period (2005-2017), drawing on primary and secondary data, including 26 semistructured interviews with policy, academic, and civil society actors. It identifies and explains a variety of institutional developments across multiple levels (i.e., programmatic, legislative, and constitutional), through a theory-centric process tracing methodology. This reveals a multiple-response pattern, involving several causal mechanisms and coexisting institutional logics. Findings suggest that although adaptation may be inherently protracted, institutions can nevertheless develop in both related and novel directions. Overall, the paper argues for a new research agenda on process-oriented theorizing and analysis in climate and environmental governance.

Patterson, J; de Voogt, DL; Sapiains, R

Beyond inputs and outputs: Process-oriented explanation of institutional change in climate adaptation governance

Environmental Policy And Governance

https://doi.org/10.1002/eet.1865

Traditional justifications for state-to-state development assistance include charity, basic rights and self-interest. Except in unusual cases such as war-reparations agreements, development assistance has typically been justified for reasons such as the above, without reference to any history of injury that holds between the states. We argue that climate change creates relationships of harm that can be cited to supplement and strengthen the traditional claims for development assistance. Finally, to demonstrate the utility of this analysis, we offer a brief application of our reasoning to the emerging conflict in the United Nations over the future post-2015 development agenda.

Light, A; Taraska, G

Climate Change, Adaptation, and Climate-Ready Development Assistance

Environmental Values

https://doi.org/10.3197/096327114X13894344179086

In Mozambique, weather extremes threaten development progress, while pronounced poverty aggravates the climate vulnerability of the population. With the country being a major recipient of official development assistance, Mozambique's development strongly depends on donor investments. Against this background, we aim to encourage the mainstreaming of climate adaptation into development assistance. An analysis of donor investments at a sub-national level showed that a significant proportion of development assistance was invested in climate-sensitive sectors in regions highly exposed to extreme weather conditions. Major damage caused by weather extremes motivates a stronger integration of climate policies into development assistance. Although Mozambique ha:; a supportive legislative environment and climate awareness among donors was found to be high, the limited institutional capacity restricted mainstreaming initiatives. Given major barriers at the national level, bilateral and multilateral donors are able to play a key role in fostering mainstreaming in Mozambique. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sietz, D; Boschütz, M; Klein, RJT

Mainstreaming climate adaptation into development assistance: rationale, institutional barriers and opportunities in Mozambique

Environmental Science & Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2011.01.001

Purpose - Climate change is expected to cause larger and more frequent precipitation events in key agricultural regions of the United States, damaging crops and soils. Subsurface tile drainage is an important technology for mitigating the risks of a wetter climate in crop production. In this study, the authors examine how quickly farmers adapt to increased precipitation by investing in drainage technology. Design/methodology/approach - Using farm-level data from the 2018 Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) of soybean producers, the authors construct a drainage adoption timeline based on when the operator began farming their land and when tile drainage was installed, if at all. The authors examine both the initial investment decision and the speed with which drainage is installed by adopters. A Heckman-style Poisson regression is used to model the count nature of adoption speed (measured in years taken to install tile drainage) and to correct for potential sample-selection bias. Findings - The authors find that local precipitation is not a significant determinant of the drainage investment decision but may be highly influential in the timing of adoption among drainage users. Farms exposed to cropdamaging levels of precipitation install tile drainage faster than thosewith low to moderate levels of rainfall. Estimates of farm adaptation speeds are heterogeneous across farm and operator characteristics, most notably land tenure status. Originality/value - Understanding how US farmers adapt to extreme weather through technology adoption is key to predicting the long-term impacts of climate change on America's food system. This study extends the existing climate adaptation literature by focusing on the speed of adoption of an important and increasingly common climate-mitigating technology - subsurface tile drainage.

Comstock, H; DeLay, N

Estimating US farmers' speed of climate change adaptation: the case of subsurface tile drainage

Agricultural Finance Review

https://doi.org/10.1108/AFR-02-2023-0027

The aim of this article is to investigate the construction of climate risks and to identify how it intersects with different forms of discursive categories in house owner narratives. Interviews with 44 house owners in four regions exposed to climate risks in Sweden were analyzed using the narrative method. I use intersectional risk theory, in which risk is constructed in relation to different forms of power structure, to interpret the narratives. The results indicate that narrators do risk in different ways in relation to the master narratives of the climate threat and individual environmental responsibility, which dominate the official rhetoric in Sweden. Three risk narratives are revealed in the interviews: (1) the master narrative of 'the responsible house owner,' (2) the alternative narrative of 'the vulnerable house owner', and (3) the counter-narrative of 'the safe house owner.' The climate risks talked about could relate to the narrator's own house or to risks at a local or global level. The results indicate that different intersections of class, gender, age, and place shape different ways of positioning in relation to risk, by describing oneself as more or less aware of and exposed to climate risks. The analysis also reveals that different intersections of social structures lead to shifting prerequisites for house-owner preparedness towards preventing and managing climate risks. Such an understanding is important when trying to comprehend why some house owners adapt their homes to a changed climate while others do not. Aspects like these are necessary to consider while, e.g. deciding on policy and writing information and guidelines on adaptation to climate change.

Jarnkvist, K

Intersectional perspectives of house owner narratives on climate risks

Journal Of Risk Research

https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2019.1646314

Heat waves have a significant impact on crop production and quality of many staple grains including wheat. Under climate change, changing weather patterns including greater temperature volatility are also likely to further affect yield stability. Simulation modeling provides a powerful tool to investigate the interactive effects of abiotic factors and develop adaptive strategies; however, many of these models do not adequately account for the step change response to high temperature occurring during the crop reproductive phase. Empirical response data will support the development of robust algorithms for crop models. We present results from three experiments on the response of wheat to a range of acute high-temperature treatments. For 35, 37, and 42 degrees C and 1, 3, and 5 d of exposure (similar to 6 h d(-1)), expressed as heat sum, degrees Cxh (above 32 degrees C), high temperature applied 5 d prior to anthesis reduced grain number and yield by 0.16 and 0.15% per degrees Cxh respectively, whereas individual grain weight and grain nitrogen concentration increased by 0.03 and 0.06% per degrees Cxh, respectively. For high temperature applied after anthesis, individual grain weight decreased by 0.05% per degrees Cxh, grain nitrogen concentration increased by 0.03% per degrees Cxh, and yield was reduced by 0.07% per degrees Cxh. The often asymptotic response meant exponential functions provided a superior fit. Water availability prior to anthesis attenuated wheat response to high temperature. Such algorithms could contribute to improving our prediction of the step change response of wheat to high temperature within crop models and more broadly contribute to developing strategies for crop adaptation to climate change using a modeling approach.

Nuttall, JG; Barlow, KM; Delahunty, AJ; Christy, BP; O'Leary, GJ

Acute High Temperature Response in Wheat

Agronomy Journal

https://doi.org/10.2134/agronj2017.07.0392

Climate change will impact urban infrastructure networks by changing precipitation patterns in a region. This study presents a novel vulnerability assessment framework for infrastructure networks against extreme rainfall-induced flash floods, with a specific application to transportation. The framework combines climate models, network science, geographical information systems (GIS), and stochastic modeling to compile a vulnerability surface (VS). Daily precipitation simulations for 2006-2100 from the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), are used to produce a stochastic simulation of extreme flash flood events in five U.S. cities-that is, Boston, Massachusetts; Houston, Texas; Miami, Florida; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma; and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania-under two different climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). To assess the impact of these events, percentage drops in static (i.e., overall properties and robustness topological indicators) and dynamic (i.e., GIS accessibility and travel demand metrics) network properties are measured before and after simulated extreme events. The results of these metrics are inputs on a radar diagram to form a VS. Overall, the results show that changes in flash flood frequency due to climate change can have a significant impact on road networks, as was demonstrated recently in Houston, Texas. The magnitude of these impacts is chiefly associated with the geographic location of the cities and the size of the networks. The proposed framework can be reproduced in any city around the world, and researchers can use the results as guidelines for infrastructure design and planning purposes. Moreover, sensitivity analysis to varying greenhouse gas concentration trajectories can help local and national authorities to prioritize strategies for adaptation to climate change in more vulnerable regions.

Kermanshah, A; Derrible, S; Berkelhammer, M

Using Climate Models to Estimate Urban Vulnerability to Flash Floods

Journal Of Applied Meteorology And Climatology

https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0083.1

Lake Purrumbete is located in western Victoria, Australia, and is highly regarded for its ecological, social, economic and scientific values. Recently, many lakes in the region have been dry or at their lowest level in recorded history, due to a drought that broke in 2010. For this study, a modified difference water budget method was employed to estimate net groundwater flux through the difference between the level of the lake and the water table, along with the specific yield and area of the aquifer. This model successfully modelled the lake level fluctuations. In recent years, Lake Purrumbete has fallen below the outflow level; however, because of its large volume, changes in salinity to date are minor and do not affect its freshwater status. An understanding of how these systems will behave in the future and how they may be best managed in a drying climate is considered an important step to adapt to climate change. Postulated future climatic changes in the region of the lake were used to project the lake level fluctuations to 2030 using the water budget model, and showed that dry conditions would cause the lake level to remain below its outlet elevation, but wet conditions would result in a significant recovery in the lake level. If the level of Lake Purrumbete continues to fall, the main threat to its ecological status will be the potential loss of some significant areas of fringing wetland habitat. The lowering in lake level could cause a shift in the abundance of algal plankton and so influence the whole lake food web. This may reduce the invertebrate diversity of the lake.

Yihdego, Y; Webb, JA; Leahy, P

Modelling of lake level under climate change conditions: Lake Purrumbete in southeastern Australia

Environmental Earth Sciences

https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-014-3669-8

Climate change have been identified as the greatest challenge facing global leaders in 21st century. A major obstacle hindering the world from achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is climate change. Climate-resilient agriculture requires the integration of both socioeconomic and agroecological spheres with institutional investment. Numerous studies have advanced our understanding of climate change and its impact on global agriculture, but few have focused on the micro-farming situation. A geographical indicator (GI) -labelled Alphonso mango has developed a high sensitivity to climate change. It is therefore, this study intends to investigate climatic vulnerabilities; the adoption of climate-resilient technologies, and which socioeconomic-institutional-agroecological factors affect the adoption process. We adopted a multistage random sampling method to identify districts, blocks, villages, and mango farmers. A pre-tested interview schedule was employed to obtain field data. A binary logistic regression model was employed in Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). The results of this study identified extreme climatic vulnerabilities such as temperature, relative hu-midity, cold waves, fog, and frost that caused damage to the mango plantations around the plains and hills of the west coast India, resulting in decreased production and productivity. Therefore, mango orchardists in coastal agroecosystems have adopted a large number of climate-resilient technologies, albeit at a moderate level. We found that a set of socioeconomic, institutional, and agroecological indicators had a substantial impact on the adoption of climate-resilient technologies (CRTs). This research implied that climate change adaptation plans may be designed and implemented with socioeconomic, institutional, and agroecological indicators in mind at all levels of policy planning such as macro-scale (global), meso (regional), and landscape (local).

Deshmukh, S; Jadhav, P; Sawant, P; Thorat, V

Climatic vulnerability, adoption of climate-resilient technologies, and its socioeconomic-institutional-agroecological determinants

Climate Services

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100414

It has been assumed that spatial patterns of warming are the same under transient and equilibrium scenarios. Analysis of a multi-model ensemble shows that this is not the case, with greater land warming for a transient state, increasing risks that need to be considered in adaptation planning. There has recently been interest in understanding the differences between specific levels of global warming, especially the Paris Agreement limits of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. However, different model experiments(1-3) have been used in these analyses under varying rates of increase in global-average temperature. Here, we use climate model simulations to show that, for a given global temperature, most land is significantly warmer in a rapidly warming (transient) case than in a quasi-equilibrium climate. This results in more than 90% of the world's population experiencing a warmer local climate under transient global warming than equilibrium global warming. Relative to differences between the 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming limits, the differences between transient and quasi-equilibrium states are substantial. For many land regions, the probability of very warm seasons is at least two times greater in a transient climate than in a quasi-equilibrium equivalent. In developing regions, there are sizable differences between transient and quasi-equilibrium climates that underline the importance of explicitly framing projections. Our study highlights the need to better understand differences between future climates under rapid warming and quasi-equilibrium conditions for the development of climate change adaptation policies. Yet, current multi-model experiments(1,4) are not designed for this purpose.

King, AD; Lane, TP; Henley, BJ; Brown, JR

Global and regional impacts differ between transient and equilibrium warmer worlds

Nature Climate Change

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0658-7

Autogenic ecosystem engineers often provide cool microhabitats which are used by associated organisms to reduce thermal extremes. The value of such habitats is, however, dependent on key structural traits of the ecosystem engineer, and the intensity and duration of thermal exposure. Using an experimental mesocosm that mimicked the rocky intertidal environment, we assessed how the spatial configuration of the habitat formed by an autogenic ecosystem engineer, the oyster, influences its capacity to mitigate heat stress experienced by invertebrates during simulated emersion periods on tropical, Hong Kong rocky shores. At the average temperature experienced during summer low tides, oyster habitat ameliorated environmental and organismal temperatures, irrespective of the structural configuration of the oyster bed. As temperatures increased, however, vertically orientated oysters provided microclimates that facilitated cooler invertebrate body temperatures than horizontal beds, which no longer conferred any associational benefit as compared to bare rock surfaces. In the absence of oysters, physiological indicators of stress to associated organisms (i.e., heart rate and osmolality) increased with the intensity and duration of exposure to high temperatures. Such effects were, however, mitigated by association with vertical but not horizontal oyster configurations. In contrast, the osmolality of the oysters was not related to temperature, suggesting they remained in a state of metabolic quiescence throughout emersion. Structural traits such as the spatial configuration of ecosystem engineers are therefore critical to their effectiveness in environmental amelioration. As such, variations in the morphological traits of ecosystem engineers, which have important implications for their ecological role, need to be incorporated into conservation and restoration projects aimed at climate change adaptation. A is available for this article.

McAfee, D; Bishop, MJ; Yu, TN; Williams, GA

Structural traits dictate abiotic stress amelioration by intertidal oysters

Functional Ecology

https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2435.13210

The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) is novel because it integrates water quality, water resources, physical habitat and, to some extent, flooding for all surface and groundwaters and takes forward river basin management. However, the WFD does not explicitly mention risks posed by climate change to the achievement of its environmental objectives. This is despite the fact that the time scale for the implementation process and achieving particular objectives extends into the 2020s, when climate models project changes in average temperature and precipitation. This paper begins by reviewing the latest UK climate change scenarios and the wider policy and science context of the WFD. We then examine the potential risks of climate change to key phases of the River Basin Management Process that underpin the WFD (such as charactelisation of liver basins and their water bodies, risk assessments to identify pressures and impacts, programmes of measures (POMs) options appraisal, monitoring and modelling, policy and management activities). Despite these risks the WFD could link new policy and participative mechanisms (being established for the River Basin Management Plans) to the emerging framework of national and regional climate change adaptation policy. The risks are identified with a view to informing policy opportunities, objective setting, adaptation strategies and the research agenda. Key knowledge gaps have already been identified during the implementation of the WFD, such as the links between hydromorphology and ecosystem status, but the overarching importance of linking climate change to these considerations needs to be highlighted. The next generation of (probabilistic) climate change scenarios will present new opportunities and challenges for risk analysis and policy-making. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All lights reserved.

Wilby, RL; Orr, HG; Hedger, M; Forrow, D; Blackmore, M

Risks posed by climate change to the delivery of Water Framework Directive objectives in the UK

Environment International

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2006.06.017

Historical records have documented considerable changes to the global climate, with significant health, economic, and environmental consequences. Climate projections predict more intense hurricanes; increased sea level rise; and more frequent and more intense natural disasters such as heat waves, heavy rainfall, and drought in the future (1; 2). The coast along the Gulf of Mexico is particularly vulnerable to many of these environmental hazards and at particular risk when several strike simultaneously-such as a hurricane disrupting electricity transmission during a heat wave. Due to its significant contribution to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the building sector already plays an important role in climate change mitigation efforts (e. g., reducing emissions). For example, voluntary programs such as the LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) Rating System (3), the Architecture 2030 Challenge (4), the American College and University Presidents' Climate Commitment (5), and the Clinton Climate Initiative (6) focus almost exclusively on reducing energy consumption and increasing renewable energy generation. Mandatory regulations such as the International Energy Conservation Code (7), the International Green Building Code (8), and CalGreen (9) also emphasize GHG emission reduction targets. This leadership role is necessary. After all, the United States EPA estimates that the building sector accounts for 62.7% of total annual GHG emissions in the U. S., when the construction sector, facility operations, and transportation are factored in. In fact, the construction sector alone is the third largest industrial emitter of GHGs after the oil and gas and chemical industries, contributing 1.7% of total annual emissions (10; 11). As significant as these contributions appear, the built environment's true contribution to climate change is much larger than the GHG emissions attributed to building construction and operations. It is also a major determinant of which populations are vulnerable to climate change-related hazards, such as heat waves and flooding (12; 13). Architecture and land use planning can therefore be used as tools for building community resilience to the climate-related environmental changes underway (13). Climate change regulations and voluntary programs have begun to incorporate requirements targeting the built environment's ability to work in tandem with the natural environment to both reduce greenhouse gas emissions and protect its occupants from the health consequences of a changing climate. For example, 11 states have incorporated climate change adaptation goals into their climate action plans (14). In 2010, the not-for-profit organization ICLEI: Local Governments for Sustainability launched a climate change adaptation program (15) to complement their existing mitigation program, which supports municipalities who have signed the U. S. Conference of Mayors' Climate Protection Agreement (16). New tools have been introduced to measure community vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. One of these tools, Health Impact Assessments (or HIAs), has emerged over the past decade as a powerful methodology to provide evidence-based recommendations to decision makers and community planning officials about the likely health co-benefits and co-harms associated with proposed policies and land use development proposals (17). While HIAs are becoming a more common feature of community planning efforts, this paper introduces them as an approach to designing climate change resilience into specific building projects. HIAs have been used in Europe and other parts of the world for decades to provide a science-based, balanced assessment of the risks and benefits to health associated with a proposed policy or program (18). In the U. S., they have been used over the past decade to evaluate transit-oriented developments, urban infill projects, and California's cap-and-trade legislation, among other topics (17; 19). To date, HIAs have been used mainly to inform large-scale community planning, land use, industrial, and policy decisions. However, the recommendations generated through the HIA process often bring to light previously unforeseen vulnerabilities, whether due to existing infrastructure, building technology, or socio-economic conditions. Designers can make use of the HIA process and its resulting recommendations to prioritize design/retrofit interventions that will result in the largest co-benefits to building owners, the surrounding community, and the environment. An HIA focused on the health impacts of climate change will likely generate recommendations that could enhance the longevity of a building project's useful life; protect its property value by contributing to the resilience of the surrounding community; and result in design decisions that prioritize strategies that maximize both short-term efficiencies and long-term environmental, economic, and social value.

Houghton, A

HEALTH IMPACT ASSESSMENTS A Tool for Designing Climate Change Resilience into Green Building and Planning Projects

Journal Of Green Building

https://doi.org/10.3992/jgb.6.2.66

Climate adaptation planning is said to be a necessary and inevitable facet of future societies, and is rapidly occurring across a range of geopolitical scales. Previous scholarship suggests that a democratic decentralized approach, one that fosters inclusive participation and representation, is central to achieving equitable and sustainable outcomes of adaptation. However, recent studies frequently characterize the adaptation process as dominated by a techoscientific approach, among expert and elite actors, that tends to obscure or neglect the perceptions and desires of more marginalized members of society. This paper employs a values-based approach to better understand motivational factors for a closed and non-inclusive adaptation process. Through a case study of early, yet formidable stages of adaptation planning in the urban, coastal region of Hampton Roads, Virginia, empirical data among the epistemic community were gathered by interviews and participant observation at de facto adaptation planning forums. Research results document an exclusionary process favoring the participation and representation of technocratic elites and the exclusion of elected officials and local citizens. When linking these case study findings to value theory, inferences are made that adaptation planning in Hampton Roads is motivated by dominant institutional actor values of power and security, those that are theorized to be in opposition to values fostering social and environmental justice. In light of these research results, this paper calls for a critically reflexive adaptation practice, thereby challenging values, assumptions, and beliefs of the self, as well as social structures and power relations that shape adaptation planning.

Haverkamp, JAR

Politics, values, and reflexivity: The case of adaptation to climate change in Hampton Roads, Virginia

Environment And Planning A-Economy And Space

https://doi.org/10.1177/0308518X17707525

Today's agri-food systems face the triple challenge of addressing food security, adapting to climate change, and reducing the climate footprint by reducing the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG). In agri-food systems, changes in land use and land cover (LULC) could affect soil physicochemical properties, particularly soil organic carbon (SOC) stock. However, the impact varies depending on the physical, social, and economic conditions of a given region or watershed. Given this, a study was conducted to quantify the impact of LULC and slope gradient on SOC stock and C sequestration rate in the Anjeni watershed, which is a highly populated and intensively cultivated area in Northwest Ethiopia. Seventy-two soil samples were collected from 0-15 and 15-30 cm soil depths representing four land use types and three slope gradients. Soil samples were selected systematically to match the historical records (30 years) for SOC stock comparison. Four land use types were quantified using Landsat imagery analysis. As expected, plantation forest had a significantly (p < 0.05) higher SOC (1.94 Mg ha(-1)) than cultivated land (1.38 Mg ha(-1)), and gentle slopes (1-15%) had the highest SOC (1.77 Mg ha(-1)) than steeper slopes (> 30%). However, higher SOC stock (72.03 Mg ha(-1)) and SOC sequestration rate (3.00 Mg ha(-1) year(-1)) were recorded when cultivated land was converted to grassland, while lower SOC stock (8.87 Mg ha(-1)) and sequestration rate (0.77 Mg ha(-1) year(-1)) were recorded when land use changed from cultivation to a plantation forest. The results indicated that LULC changes and slope gradient had a major impact on SOC stock and C sequestration rate over 30 years in a highly populated watershed. It is concluded that in intensively used watersheds, a carefully planned land use that involves the conversion of cultivated land to grassland could lead to an increase in soil C sequestration and contributes to reducing the carbon footprint of agri-food systems.

Geremew, B; Tadesse, T; Bedadi, B; Gollany, HT; Tesfaye, K; Aschalew, A

Impact of land use/cover change and slope gradient on soil organic carbon stock in Anjeni watershed, Northwest Ethiopia

Environmental Monitoring And Assessment

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11537-7

Background: Bangladesh is facing the unavoidable challenge of adaptation to climate change. However, very little is known in relation to climate change and health. This article provides information on potential climate change impact on health, magnitude of climate-sensitive diseases, and baseline scenarios of health systems to climate variability and change. Design: A cross-sectional study using multistage cluster sampling framework was conducted in 2012 among 6,720 households of 224 rural villages in seven vulnerable districts of Bangladesh. Information was obtained from head of the households using a pretested, interviewer-administered, structured questionnaire. A total of 6,720 individuals participated in the study with written, informed consent. Results: The majority of the respondents were from the low-income vulnerable group (60% farmers or day labourers) with an average of 30 years' stay in their locality. Most of them (96%) had faced extreme weather events, 45% of people had become homeless and displaced for a mean duration of 38 days in the past 10 years. Almost all of the respondents (97.8%) believe that health care expenditure increased after the extreme weather events. Mean annual total health care expenditure was 6,555 Bangladeshi Taka (BDT) (1 USD = 77 BDT in 2015) and exclusively out of pocket of the respondents. Incidence of dengue was 1.29 (95% CI 0.65-2.56) and malaria 13.86 (95% CI 6.00-32.01) per 1,000 adult population for 12 months preceding the data collection. Incidence of diarrhoea and pneumonia among under-five children of the households for the preceding month was 10.3% (95% CI 9.16-11.66) and 7.3% (95% CI 6.35-8.46), respectively. Conclusions: The findings of this survey indicate that climate change has a potential adverse impact on human health in Bangladesh. The magnitude of malaria, dengue, childhood diarrhoea, and pneumonia was high among the vulnerable communities. Community-based adaptation strategy for health could be beneficial to minimise climate change attributed health burden of Bangladesh.

Kabir, MI; Rahman, MB; Smith, W; Lusha, MAF; Milton, AH

Climate change and health in Bangladesh: a baseline cross-sectional survey

Global Health Action

https://doi.org/10.3402/gha.v9.29609

Rainfall, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration (ET0) have a significant influence on irrigation, aridity, flooding, and crop water requirements. The primary aims of this study were to analyze the trends in rainfall, temperature, and ET0 in seven sub-climatic zones of Bangladesh from 1989 to 2020, as well as examine their interrelationships. The Modified Mann-Kendall method was employed to assess trends, while linear regression was used for trend validation. ET0 was calculated using the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith method, and Sen's slope was utilized to quantify the magnitude. Spatial analysis was conducted using Inverse Distance Weighting techniques. The findings revealed that annual rainfall increased only in the south-eastern zone, while the other zones experienced a decline. No significant changes were observed in annual maximum temperature, except in the south-eastern, north-eastern, and south-central zones, which showed variations ranging from 0.02 to 0.05 (degrees C/year). However, the yearly minimum temperature increased in all zones. Additionally, negative changes were observed in the annual magnitude of ET0 for all zones and seasons, except for the south-eastern and north-eastern zones, with a range of 0.01-0.02 mm/year. It was also noted that rainfall and ET0 displayed a strong decreasing relationship, except during the pre-monsoon season. Regarding regional variation, the northern regions exhibited a significant decreasing trend in both rainfall and ET0. The study identified key challenges, including water scarcity and irrigation difficulties due to declining rainfall and evapotranspiration, increased aridity, changing flood patterns, temperature-related impacts on crop growth, regional disparities in climate trends, and the need for effective climate change adaptation measures. Therefore, the study's findings can contribute to knowledge in areas such as irrigation scheduling, promoting climate-smart agricultural practices, encouraging crop diversification to reduce dependence on water-intensive crops cultivation, and planning resilient water resource management to minimize the effects of environmental shifts, regulate human operations, and implement disaster remedial actions in Bangladesh.

Rahman, MN; Azim, SA; Jannat, FA; Rony, MRH; Ahmad, B; Sarkar, MAR

Quantification of rainfall, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration trend and their interrelationship in sub-climatic zones of Bangladesh

Heliyon

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e19559

While quantitative studies are robust at assessing the extent of climate change adaptation, and statistical relationships among variables involved, qualitative studies are also essential to understand the social rationales underlying relationships among variables, and to identify the roles of variables that have been overlooked or are hard to measure. This study investigates factors that influence the adoption of climate resilient agricultural practices by resource-poor Giriama farmers in southeast Kenya, with a view to understanding why some smallholders from this cultural group adopt climate resilient practices, while others do not. Data was collected through in-depth interviews with 30 farmers, 15 of whom had adopted climate resilient farming practices recommended by agricultural experts, and 15 of whom had not adopted any of those practices. The adopters were market-oriented, and tended to have individual land tenure, higher levels of experience in farming, slightly larger farm sizes, middle to high school education levels, and be younger. They had access to agricultural extension, access to farm inputs, and their off-farm activities tended to be related to agricultural supply chains. Non-adopters farmed entirely for subsistence, on communal or leased land, had less formal education, and adhered strongly to cultural beliefs and practices. Their off-farm income was unrelated to agriculture. More of the adopters were males, while many of the non-adopters were female. Particular cultural practices and taboos inhibited the adoption of several of the climate resilient practices, such as planting hybrid maize, keeping dairy goats, using improved goats such as the Kenyan Alpine for breeding purposes and the use of water conservation structures for crop production. Further, the qualitative information explains how and why factors such as land ownership, gender, culture, and access to information are interrelated, in ways that are not necessarily obvious in statistical analysis. The study thus highlights issues that need to be considered in conceptual frameworks underpinning both quantitative and qualitative studies, and particularly how they interact, in order to provide the knowledge essential to policy and programs intended to enhance smallholder farmers' adaptive capacity.

Ziro, JS; Kichamu-Wachira, E; Ross, H; Palaniappan, G

Adoption of climate resilient agricultural practices among the Giriama community in South East Kenya: implications for conceptual frameworks

Frontiers In Climate

https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1032780

We study the availability of fiscal space in climate-vulnerable developing countries. These countries require urgent climate adaptation and transition investments. However, their governments describe being bypassed for international financial support due to 'limited fiscal space.' We suspect that many governments are not close to a point of long-term insolvency but are unable to maneuver fiscally because of what has been called a 'financial death trap.' We apply a measure of fiscal space based on an endogenous debt limit reflective of a country's record of fiscal adjustment consistent with long-term solvency. We find that for many countries, the distance between the endogenous debt limit and forecast public debt ratios - i.e. fiscal space - is fairly ample. Our findings imply that climate-vulnerable countries should be afforded a second look by international financial institutions using a long-term lens, of which this measure of fiscal space is an example. By illuminating the difference between long-term insolvency and short-term liquidity crises, the endogenous debt limit measure could be part of a multi-pronged strategy to unlock greater flows of adaptation finance. It could lower the cost of capital or be useful in the efficient allocation of adaptation financing among countries given current shortfalls. Actions to obviate the financial death trap are also warranted. Climate ambitions will be derailed if otherwise solvent and able governments are unable to access finance for urgent climate adaptation investments. Key Policy InsightsFiscal space, the distance from projected debt ratios to country-specific debt limits beyond which long-term solvency fails, is estimated to be fairly ample in many climate-vulnerable developing countries.A clear understanding of fiscal space in climate-vulnerable developing countries could help unlock greater flows of adaptation finance.Debt thresholds in IMF debt sustainability frameworks should not be confused with limits to fiscal space per se. Doing so could cause otherwise solvent and able governments to be caught in a financial death trap.Delayed or foregone climate adaptation and transition investments, and delay of their mitigation co-benefits, due to a financial death trap warrant action to overhaul the global financial system.

Monsod, TMC; Majadillas, MA; Gochoco-Bautista, MS

Unlocking the flow of finance for climate adaptation: estimates of 'Fiscal Space' in climate-vulnerable developing countries

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2023.2224281

The National Adaptation Framework aims to reduce Ireland's vulnerability to climate change by establishing climate adaptation considerations as a priority at local, regional and national level. With coastal areas and habitats particularly susceptible to negative climate change effects, it is necessary to build resilience in these areas by devising coastal adaptation responses in collaboration with coastal communities. Policies and structures have also been put in place to create an enabling environment which facilitates community participation. However, the extent of community engagement and its current role in formulating and implementing coastal adaptation responses are unclear. This paper assesses the effectiveness of the enabling environment in encouraging community-led coastal adaptation solutions by identifying community and voluntary groups who are actively engaging with stakeholders at all levels of governance in key adaptation tasks. The findings reveal that the policies and structures for enhanced local participation in coastal adaptation responses are in place, but as only a small number of communities are actively engaging in coastal adaptation solutions, further progress in their implementation is needed.

Lawlor, P

The role of the community and voluntary sector in identifying vulnerabilities to climate change in coastal areas and implementing climate adaptation responses

Administration

https://doi.org/10.2478/admin-2021-0029

The cooling effect of greenspaces is an important ecosystem service, essential for mitigating the urban heat island (UHI) effect and thus increasing urban resilience to climate change. Techniques based on landscape planning to alleviate the increasing frequency of extreme climate are becoming more of a focus in urban ecology studies. In this paper, we proposed and defined the urban cooling island (UCI) extent, intensity, and efficiency, as well as the threshold value of efficiency (TVoE) introduced from the law of diminishing marginal utility for the first time. The radiative transfer equation has been compared with other algorithms and used to retrieve accurate land surface temperature (LST) in a subtropical city of China Fuzhou. Two important and arguable factor size and shape of greenspaces also been expressed and explored. The results indicate that: (1) larger-sized greenspaces produce a higher cooling effect. However, there exist a TVoE, which is in line with our hypothesis. The TVoE in Fuzhou is 4.55 ha. (2) The circles and squares greenspaces have a significant correlation with LST and also show the highest UCI intensity and efficiency. (3) 92% of the maximum extent of greenspaces are within the 30-180 m limit, and the mean UCI extent and intensity are 104 m and 1.78 C. (4) The greenspaces connected with waterbodies intensified the UCI effects, whereas the grassland-based greenspace shows the weakest UCI effects. The methodology and results of this study could help urban planners to mitigate the UHI effects efficiently, and to employ the climate adaptive planning.

Yu, ZW; Guo, XY; Jorgensen, G; Vejre, H

How can urban green spaces be planned for climate adaptation in subtropical cities?

Ecological Indicators

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2017.07.002

Climate change-induced sea-level rise, salinity intrusion, sudden water surge, natural calamities, etc. affect the fish biodiversity, food security, and coastal livelihoods that highlight the necessities of developing climate-resilient strategies e.g. adaptive aquaculture techniques. Cage culture of salinity-tolerant fish may be an adaptation strategy to compensate for the losses of freshwater fish production by climate change in coastal areas. Therefore, a 120-day long field experiment was conducted to evaluate the cage culture potentiality of Mystus gulio in the coastal region of Bangladesh. Three treatments at the stocking density of 90 (T-1), 135 (T-2), and 180 (T-3)/m(2) were stocked in nine cages (1.115 m(2)). Significantly (p<0.05) higher growth performance and feed utilization were recorded in T-1 followed by T-2 and T-3. In return, considering overall growth, survival, production, coast-benefit analysis, T-2 was found more profitable followed by T-3 and T-1. This result revealed that the culture of M. gulio in floating net cages might be a potential climate-adaptive aquaculture technique in the coastal region. However, further research works are necessary for optimizing stocking density, nutrition, social acceptance, etc. before conclude it as a viable climate-resilient adaptive aquaculture practice.

Hossain, MM; Mostafiz, M; Ahamed, S; Hassan, MM; Islam, MA; Baten, MA; Hoq, ME; Akter, T

Assessing cage culture potentiality of long whiskers catfish, Mystus gulio (Hamilton, 1822) in relation to climate change adaptation in Bangladesh coast

Journal Of Applied Aquaculture

https://doi.org/10.1080/10454438.2021.1881683

Decision makers need better insights about solutions to accelerate adaptation efforts. Defining the concept of solution space and revealing the forces and strategies that influence this space will enable decision makers to define pathways for adaptation action.

Haasnoot, M; Biesbroek, R; Lawrence, J; Muccione, V; Lempert, R; Glavovic, B

Defining the solution space to accelerate climate change adaptation

Regional Environmental Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01623-8

Accelerated urbanization and frequent heatwave events pose significant threats to human health. Analyses of the differences in air and land surface temperature (LST) under extreme climates can aid in understanding human-nature ecosystem coupling and the required adaptations to climate change. In this study, we quantified differences in urban and rural temperatures in China under heatwave (CHW) and non-heatwave periods (NHW) conditions and the influence of meteorological factors on these differences. Based on impervious surface data, 2421 urban and rural stations were dynamically classified from 2008 to 2017. Heatwaves were identified using relative thresholds, and differences were explored using meteorological data and MODIS LST data. For LST, urban-rural temperature difference (U-RTempdiff) was highest during the day, whereas air temperature peaks occurred at night, under both NHW and CHW conditions. During CHWs, the daytime U-RTempdiff was greater for LST than for air temperature, reaching 4.24 & PLUSMN; 3.38 & DEG;C. At night, U-RTempdiff was slightly lower (1.04 & PLUSMN; 1.41 & DEG;C). The proportion of air U-RTempdiff contributed by rural air temperature was significantly higher during CHW nights than during NHW nights, whereas the proportion of land surface and air U-RTempdiff remained relatively stable during daytime. Spatially, the daytime temperature difference in the north decreased with latitude, whereas the difference in the south was lower. Under CHWs, urbanization had a stronger effect on LST than on air temperature, with a slightly smaller difference (0.01 & DEG;C yr-1) during the day and a slightly larger difference (0.03 & DEG;C yr-1) at night. The contribution of urbanization to LST was higher than that to air temperature, particularly during the day (16.34%). The effects of wind speed and precipitation on the average air urban-rural temperature difference was greater than those of LST under CHW, accounting for 16.13%, with the effects of wind speed being more significant. These results show that a comprehensive perspective is needed to understand the risks associated with a temperature rise risk under extreme climate conditions and to formulate effective mitigation measures that will they improve human thermal comfort under climate change.

Wang, N; Chen, JY; He, T; Xu, XL; Liu, L; Sun, ZY; Qiao, Z; Han, DR

Understanding the differences in the effect of urbanization on land surface temperature and air temperature in China: insights from heatwave and non-heatwave conditions

Environmental Research Letters

https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acfc58

Detailed knowledge of the uppermost water table representing the shallow groundwater system is critical in order to address societal challenges that relate to the mitigation and adaptation to climate change and enhancing climate resilience in general. Machine learning (ML) allows for high resolution modeling of the water table depth beyond the capabilities of conventional numerical physically-based hydrological models with respect to spatial resolution and overall accuracy. For this, in-situ well and proxy observations are used as training data in combination with high resolution covariates. The objective of this study is to model the depth of the uppermost water table for a typical summer and winter condition at 10 m spatial resolution over entire Denmark (43,000 km(2)). CatBoost, a state of the art implementation of gradient boosting decision trees, is employed in this study to model the water table depth and the associated uncertainties. The groundwater domain has not been the most prominent field of applications of recent hydrological ML advances due to the lack of big data. This study brings forward a novel knowledge-guided ML framework to overcome this limitation by integrating simulation results from a physically-based groundwater flow model. The simulation data are utilized to (1) identify wells that represent the uppermost water table, (2) augment missing training data by accounting for simulated water level seasonality, and (3) expand the list of covariates. The curated training dataset contains around 13,000 wells, 19,000 groundwater proxy observations at lakes, streams and coastline as well as 15 covariates. Cross validation attests that the ML model generalizes well with a mean absolute error of around 115 cm considering solely well observations and a MAE of <50 cm taking also the proxy observations into consideration. Quantile regression is applied to estimate confidence intervals and the estimated uncertainty is largest for moraine clay soils that are characterized with a distinct geological heterogeneity. This study highlights a novel research avenue of knowledge-guided ML for the groundwater domain by efficiently supporting a ML model with a physically-based hydrological model to predict the depth of the water table at unprecedented spatial detail and accuracy.

Koch, J; Gotfredsen, J; Schneider, R; Troldborg, L; Stisen, S; Henriksen, HJ

High Resolution Water Table Modeling of the Shallow Groundwater Using a Knowledge-Guided Gradient Boosting Decision Tree Model

Frontiers In Water

https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2021.701726

In recent decades, economic growth in developing economies and the growth of the middle class lead to a surge in energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Within the framework of the United Nations (UN) sustainable development goals established in 2015, the solution to poverty and inequality thus comes into conflict with climate change mitigation. The existing international system of climate regulation does not address this contradiction. Today, global climate governance relies on estimates of aggregate emissions by countries without considering their level of development and the distribution of emissions among income groups within each country. Emissions from production are being monitored, while consumption-related emissions, albeit known to experts, rarely underlie decision-making. Meanwhile, income distribution has a higher impact on consumption-based emissions in comparison to production-based ones. Decisions on emissions regulation are made at the national level by countries with different development agendas in which climate change mitigation often gets less priority in comparison to other socio-economic objectives. This paper proposes a set of principles and specific mechanisms that can link climate change and inequality within a single policy framework. First, we highlight the need to modify the global emission monitoring system for the sake of accounting for emissions from consumption (rather than production) by income groups. Second, we suggest the introduction of a new redistribution system to address climate change which would include the imposition of a fine on households with the highest levels of emissions. Such a system follows the principles of progressive taxation but supports climate mitigation objectives and should be understood not as taxation of high incomes but rather as payment for a negative externality. Third, we outline the need to adjust climate finance criteria; priority should be given to projects designed to reduce carbon-intensive consumption by social groups entering the middle class, or to help the poorest population groups adapt to climate change. A special role in the implementation of these principles may belong to BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), which may view this as an opportunity for a proactive transition to inclusive, low-carbon development.

Grigoryev, L; Makarov, I; Sokolova, A; Pavlyushina, V; Stepanov, I

Climate Change and Inequality: How to Solve These Problems Jointly?

Vestnik Mezhdunarodnykh Organizatsii-International Organisations Research Journal

https://doi.org/10.17323/1996-7845-2020-01-01

As one of the key grain-producing regions in China, the agricultural system in the North China Plain (NCP) is vulnerable to climate change due to its limited water resources and strong dependence on irrigation for crop production. Exploring the impacts of climate change on crop evapotranspiration (ET) is of importance for water management and agricultural sustainability. The VIP (Vegetation Interface Processes) process-based ecosystem model and WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) modeling system are applied to quantify ET responses of a wheat-maize cropping system to climate change. The ensemble projections of six General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the B2 and A2 scenarios in the 2050s over the NCP are used to account for the uncertainty of the projections. The thermal time requirements (TTR) of crops are assumed to remain constant under air warming conditions. It is found that in this case the length of the crop growth period will be shortened, which will result in the reduction of crop water consumption and possible crop productivity loss. Spatially, the changes of ET during the growth periods (ETg) for wheat range from -7 to 0 % with the average being -1.5 +/- 1.2 % under the B2 scenario, and from -8 to 2 % with the average being -2.7 +/- 1.3 % under the A2 scenario/consistently, changes of ETg for maize are from -10 to 8 %, with the average being -0.4 +/- 4.9 %, under the B2 scenario and from -8 to 8 %, with the average being -1.2 +/- 4.1 %, under the A2 scenario. Numerical analysis is also done on the condition that the length of the crop growth periods remains stable under the warming condition via breeding new crop varieties. In this case, TTR will be higher and the crop water requirements will increase, with the enhancement of the productivity. It is suggested that the options for adaptation to climate change include no action and accepting crop loss associated with the reduction in ETg, or breeding new cultivars that would maintain or increase crop productivity and result in an increase in ETg. In the latter case, attention should be paid to developing improved water conservation techniques to help compensate for the increased ETg.

Mo, XG; Guo, RP; Liu, SX; Lin, ZH; Hu, S

Impacts of climate change on crop evapotranspiration with ensemble GCM projections in the North China Plain

Climatic Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0823-3

Background: There is overwhelming scientific evidence that human activities have changed and will continue to change the climate of the Earth. Eco-environmental health, which refers to the interdependencies between ecological systems and population health and well-being, is likely to be significantly influenced by climate change. The aim of this study was to examine perceptions from government stakeholders and other relevant specialists about the threat of climate change, their capacity to deal with it, and how to develop and implement a framework for assessing vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change. Methods: Two focus groups were conducted in Brisbane, Australia with representatives from relevant government agencies, non-governmental organisations, and the industry sector (n = 15) involved in the discussions. The participants were specialists on climate change and public health from governmental agencies, industry, and non-governmental organisations in South-East Queensland. Results: The specialists perceived climate change to be a threat to eco-environmental health and had substantial knowledge about possible implications and impacts. A range of different methods for assessing vulnerability were suggested by the participants and the complexity of assessment when dealing with multiple hazards was acknowledged. Identified factors influencing vulnerability were perceived to be of a social, physical and/or economic nature. They included population growth, the ageing population with associated declines in general health and changes in the vulnerability of particular geographical areas due to for example, increased coastal development, and financial stress. Education, inter-sectoral collaboration, emergency management (e. g. development of early warning systems), and social networks were all emphasised as a basis for adapting to climate change. To develop a framework, different approaches were discussed for assessing eco-environmental health vulnerability, including literature reviews to examine the components of vulnerability such as natural hazard risk and exposure and to investigate already existing frameworks for assessing vulnerability. Conclusion: The study has addressed some important questions in regard to government stakeholders and other specialists' views on the threat of climate change and its potential impacts on eco-environmental health. These findings may have implications in climate change and public health decision-making.

Strand, LB; Tong, SL; Aird, R; McRae, D

Vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change: the views of government stakeholders and other specialists in Queensland, Australia

Bmc Public Health

https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-10-441

Background Climate change is expected to alter the global footprint of many infectious diseases, particularly vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue. Knowledge of the range and geographical context of expected climate change impacts on disease transmission and spread, combined with knowledge of effective adaptation strategies and responses, can help to identify gaps and best practices to mitigate future health impacts. To investigate the types of evidence for impacts of climate change on two major mosquito-borne diseases of global health importance, malaria and dengue, and to identify the range of relevant policy responses and adaptation strategies that have been devised, we performed a scoping review of published review literature. Three electronic databases (PubMed, Scopus and Epistemonikos) were systematically searched for relevant published reviews. Inclusion criteria were: reviews with a systematic search, from 2007 to 2020, in English or French, that addressed climate change impacts and/or adaptation strategies related to malaria and/or dengue. Data extracted included: characteristics of the article, type of review, disease(s) of focus, geographic focus, and nature of the evidence. The evidence was summarized to identify and compare regional evidence for climate change impacts and adaptation measures. Results A total of 32 reviews met the inclusion criteria. Evidence for the impacts of climate change (including climate variability) on dengue was greatest in the Southeast Asian region, while evidence for the impacts of climate change on malaria was greatest in the African region, particularly in highland areas. Few reviews explicitly addressed the implementation of adaptation strategies to address climate change-driven disease transmission, however suggested strategies included enhanced surveillance, early warning systems, predictive models and enhanced vector control. Conclusions There is strong evidence for the impacts of climate change, including climate variability, on the transmission and future spread of malaria and dengue, two of the most globally important vector-borne diseases. Further efforts are needed to develop multi-sectoral climate change adaptation strategies to enhance the capacity and resilience of health systems and communities, especially in regions with predicted climatic suitability for future emergence and re-emergence of malaria and dengue. This scoping review may serve as a useful precursor to inform future systematic reviews of the primary literature.

Kulkarni, MA; Duguay, C; Ost, K

Charting the evidence for climate change impacts on the global spread of malaria and dengue and adaptive responses: a scoping review of reviews

Globalization And Health

https://doi.org/10.1186/s12992-021-00793-2

General circulation models (GCMs) are indispensable for climate change adaptive study over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which is the potential trigger and amplifier in global climate fluctuations. With the release of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), 24 GCMs from CMIP5 and CMIP6 were comparatively evaluated for precipitation and air temperature simulations based on the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD). Rank score results showed that CMIP6 models generally performed better than CMIP5 for precipitation and surface air temperature over the TP. According to multimodel ensembles (MMEs) of the optimal GCMs for each climate variable, the overestimation of precipitation was both present in CMIP5 and CMIP6, but the results of CMIP6 MMEs were relatively lower in the mid-west and northern edge of the TP. Furthermore, CMIP6 offered a better performance of precipitation in summer and autumn. For temperature, CMIP6 MMEs were able to reduce the relatively large cold bias that appeared in CMIP5 MMEs in northwest areas to about 1 degrees C and had a smaller bias in spring and winter. Moreover, the investigation into the simulation effects of precipitation at different elevation zones demonstrated that the improved ability of CMIP6 MMEs to reduce bias was mainly concentrated in the elevation zones of 2,000-3,000 m and over 5,000 m, where the precipitation bias was more than 200%. Additionally, CMIP6 MMEs of temperature were able to reduce the bias to less than 2 degrees C in each elevation zone, with the minimum bias of -0.22 degrees C distributed in the region with altitudes from 3,000 to 4,000 m, while the biases of CMIP5 MMEs in the region of 4,000-5,000 m and over 5,000 m were smaller than those of CMIP6 MMEs. Findings obtained in this study could provide a scientific reference for related climate change research over the TP. GCMs of CMIP6 perform better than those of CMIP5 for precipitation and temperature over the TP. Multimodel ensembles (MMEs) of CMIP6 effectively reduce the overestimation of precipitation from CMIP5 MMEs by 40 mm at the annual scale. Improved ability of CMIP6 MMEs shows a significant elevation dependency, especially in elevation zones of 2,000-3,000 m and over 5,000 m for precipitation.

Lun, YR; Liu, L; Cheng, L; Li, XP; Li, H; Xu, ZX

Assessment of GCMs simulation performance for precipitation and temperature from CMIP5 to CMIP6 over the Tibetan Plateau

International Journal Of Climatology

https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7055

The urban heat island (UHI) effect is the phenomenon of increased surface temperatures in urban environments compared to their surroundings. It is linked to decreased vegetation cover, high proportions of artificial impervious surfaces, and high proportions of anthropogenic heat discharge. We evaluated the surface heat balance to clarify the contribution of anthropogenic heat discharges into the urban thermal environment. We used a heat balance model and satellite images (Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) images acquired in 1989 and 2001), together with meteorological station data to assess the urban thermal environment in the city of Fuzhou, China. The objective of this study was to estimate the anthropogenic heat discharge in the form of sensible heat flux in complex urban environments. In order to increase the accuracy of the anthropogenic heat flux analysis, the sub-pixel fractional vegetation cover (FVC) was calculated by linear spectral unmixing. The results were then used to estimate latent heat flux in urban areas and to separate anthropogenic heat discharge from heat radiation due to insolation. Spatial and temporal distributions of anthropogenic heat flux were analysed as a function of land-cover type, percentage of impervious surface area, and FVC. The accuracy of heat fluxes was assessed using the ratios of sensible heat flux (H), latent heat flux (L), and ground heat flux (G) to net radiation (R-n), which were compared to the results from other studies. It is apparent that the contribution of anthropogenic heat is smaller in suburban areas and larger in high-density urban areas. However, seasonal disparities of anthropogenic heat discharge are small, and the variance of anthropogenic heat discharge is influenced by urban expansion, land-cover change, and increasing energy consumption. The results suggest that anthropogenic heat release probably plays a significant role in the UHI effect, and must be considered in urban climate change adaptation strategies. Remote sensing can play a role in mapping the spatial and temporal patterns of UHIs and can differentiate the anthropogenic heat from the solar radiative fluxes. The findings presented here have important implications for urban development planning.

Zhang, YS; Balzter, H; Wu, XC

Spatial-temporal patterns of urban anthropogenic heat discharge in Fuzhou, China, observed from sensible heat flux using Landsat TM/ETM plus data

International Journal Of Remote Sensing

https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2012.718465

Fragmented guidance and unbalanced climate adaptation efforts for tangible and intangible cultural heritage are challenging the long-term sustainability of coastal tourism destinations. Conceptualizing and quantifying adaptation paradigms that optimize cultural heritage preservation from multi-faceted perspectives under fiscal constraints is highly prioritized by coastal tourism destinations. Informed by the Modern Portfolio Theory, this study developed, tested, and evaluated four adaptation paradigms using machine-learning approaches to optimize the historical significance, tangible, and intangible values of multi-type cultural heritage in Gulf Island National Seashore across a 30-year planning horizon under varying fiscal constraints. Results indicated that adaptation paradigms can provide transformative and flexible preservation portfolios to preserve tangible and intangible uses when facing degradation or loss from inadequate funding and intensifying climate threats. The mixed-paradigm framework optimizes preservation efforts between tangible and intangible cultural heritage quantitatively and can be generalized to coastal tourism destinations globally as a sustainable climate adaptation decision support tool.

Xiao, X; Li, PZ; Seekamp, E

Sustainable Adaptation Planning for Cultural Heritage in Coastal Tourism Destinations Under Climate Change: A Mixed-Paradigm of Preservation and Conservation Optimization

Journal Of Travel Research

https://doi.org/10.1177/00472875221143479

The dynamic relationships between climate change and armed conflict have been discussed at length, but there have been few studies that integrate dimensions of climate adaptation into the processes linking climate change to armed conflict. By using geospatial grids for climate change and armed conflict, and country-level climate vulnerability measures of sensitivity and adaptive capacity, we empirically examine the effects of climatic and non-climatic conditions on the probability of armed conflict in Africa. Results suggest that there are close links between climate drivers and armed conflict. Importantly, greater levels of adaptive capacity lead to a lower likelihood of armed conflict. From a policy perspective, our results suggest that enhancing adaptive capacity under conditions of climate pressure will reduce the probability of people taking up arms in response to water scarcity.

Regan, PM; Kim, H

Water scarcity, climate adaptation, and armed conflict: insights from Africa

Regional Environmental Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01713-7

Purpose The purpose of this empirical case study is to study and explain the role of public leadership in the expansion of municipal climate action in Canada. Design/methodology/approach In 2017 and 2018, the authors conducted13 semi-directed interviews with municipal staff and elected officials from three municipalities, a documentary analysis of primary and secondary sources. Interviews and documentation collected were also coded using the software NVIVO 12. The authors compared three municipal case studies: the City of Toronto (Ontario), the City of Guelph (Ontario), and the Town of Bridgewater (Nova Scotia). Findings The authors found that leadership is a prominent factor explaining the expansion of municipal climate action in Canada. Municipal climate action is initiated and championed by an individual, elected officials or municipal staff, who lead and engage in the development of policy instruments to mitigate and/or adapt to climate change. These leaders facilitate the formulation and implementation of instruments, encourage a paradigm shift within the municipality, overcome structural and behavioural barriers, and foster collaboration around a common vision. Optimal municipal climate leadership occurs when the leadership of elected officials and municipal is congruent, though networks play a significant role by amplifying municipal sustainability leadership. They support staff and elected officials leadership within municipalities, provide more information and funding to grow the capacity of municipalities to develop instruments, to the point that conditions under which municipalities are driving climate action are changing. Research limitations/implications This paper hopes to contribute to better understand under what conditions municipalities drive change. Originality/value There is an international scholarly recognition that municipalities should be further explored and considered important actors in the Canadian and international climate change governance. Gore (2010) and Robinson and Gore (2015) highlighted that we are yet to understand the extent to which municipalities are involved in climate governance in Canada. This article directly addresses this gap in the current scholarly literature and explores the expansion of climate municipal leadership with the aspects of interviews.

Touchant, L

Municipal climate leadership in Canada: the role of leadership in the expansion of municipal climate action

International Journal Of Public Leadership

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJPL-08-2021-0040

The lack of defined land uses in most parts of Greece (80%) has led to multiple environmental problems and phenomena of informal (arbitrary) construction with secondary side effects, such as a lack of basic technical and environmental infrastructure, unfair competition among private investors, the strengthening of climate change (increase in the number of urban diffusion) and the decline of natural and cultural resources. The Greek urban policy, over the last 100 years, has not succeeded in limiting these problems and for that reason the new Law 4759/2020 is expected to promote the development of a more efficient spatial planning system reform implemented through the Local Urban Plans (LUPs) and the Special Urban Plans (SUPs) that are funded by the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). These programs will contribute to the preservation of cultural heritage and to the development of productive activities at both local and national levels, especially on the sectors of renewable energy sources, the circular economy, and the construction of green materials, digital applications and products etc. LUPs and SUPs are related to the holistic reform of the national urban policy and the relevant planning system that horizontally affects a wide range of policy areas such as: environmental protection and adaptation to climate change (for natural ecosystems and biodiversity; agriculture; forestry; fisheries; water resources; coastal zones), built environment and development, protection of historic sites and buildings, allocation of the public infrastructure, allocation of investments etc. The General Secretariat of Spatial Planning and Urban Environment Ministry of Environment and Energy has the main responsibility for the implementation procedures of all the proposed actions that will start in 2022 and will end in 2026. This paper focuses on the analysis of the current urban policy reform in Greece and the reasons that this reform is considered an immediate necessity in the current Greek urban legislative framework and the expected outcomes of LUPs and SUPs, which are examined in the literature for the first time, contributing to research on the present EU planning systems.

Vassi, A; Siountri, K; Papadaki, K; Iliadi, A; Ypsilanti, A; Bakogiannis, E

The Greek Urban Policy Reform through the Local Urban Plans (LUPs) and the Special Urban Plans (SUPs), Funded by Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF)

Land

https://doi.org/10.3390/land11081231

Proso millet (Panicum miliaceum L.) is a cereal well known for its ability to be successfully grown under drought and intense heat conditions, thus sustaining food security in arid regions. Considering that a trend of increasing drought severity is expected in the future in Southern Europe, solutions need to be found to enhance the resilience of agroecosystems to the effects of climate change. From this perspective, proso millet re-introduction could represent an interesting tool in reducing water consumption for grain production and in providing a new resource to farmers. The aim of this study was to characterize proso millet adaptability to drought and low-input field conditions in the Mediterranean environment, especially considering water-related traits, such as water use efficiency. Limited water-demanding crops and yield stability can contribute to the resilience of agroecosystems and their adaptation to climate change. A three-year field crop experiment was conducted in northern Italy to assess proso millet's performance in terms of productivity and water status in rainfed agriculture conditions. It was compared to a conventional irrigated corn, a typical summer cereal of the area. All years of experimentation were characterized by adverse meteorological trends, in the full manifestation of the uncertainties of climate change. Despite such different conditions from an agro-meteorological point of view, proso millet showed, in non-irrigated conditions, stable yield and water use efficiency (on average 0.30 kg/m(2) and 1.83 kg /m(3), respectively), and good agronomic performance. Proso millet, therefore, seems to offer interesting traits for reintroduction on the European side of the Mediterranean Basin, representing a resource for farmers. Moreover, the shortness of the proso millet life cycle (on average 108 days) allows it to be used as a catch crop in the event of major crop failure, an event becoming more likely in the climate change scenario. Furthermore, the possibility of producing grain while saving water (and other production inputs), even in very hot and dry years, increases the sustainability of agricultural production and the resilience of agroecosystems.

Ventura, F; Poggi, GM; Vignudelli, M; Bosi, S; Negri, L; Fakaros, A; Dinelli, G

An Assessment of Proso Millet as an Alternative Summer Cereal Crop in the Mediterranean Basin

Agronomy-Basel

https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy12030609