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progress. In this report, expanded attention is given to inequity in climate vulnerability and responses, the role of power and participation in processes of implementation, unequal and differential impacts and climate justice. The historic focus on scientific literature has also been increasingly accompanied by attention to and incorporation of Indigenous knowledge, local knowledge, and associated scholars. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
In this report, the risk framing for the first time spans all three working groups, includes risks from the responses to climate change, considers dynamic and cascading consequences, describes with more geographic detail risks to people and ecosystems, and assesses such risks over a range of scenarios. The focus on solutions encompasses the interconnections among climate responses, sustainable development and transformation and the implications for governance across scales within the public and private sectors. The assessment therefore includes climate-related decision-making and risk management, climate resilient development pathways, implementation and evaluation of adaptation, and also limits to adaptation and loss and damage. Specific focal areas reflect contexts increasingly important for the implementation of responses, such as cities. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
their biodiversity) and human society. These interactions are the basis of emerging risks from Figure TS.2 | This report has a strong focus on the interactions among the coupled systems climate ecosystems Human society causes climate change. Climate change, through hazards exposure and vulnerability generates impacts and risks that can surpass limits to adaptation and result in losses and damages. Human society can adapt to, maladapt and mitigate climate change, ecosystems can adapt and mitigate within limits. Ecosystems and their biodiversity provision livelihoods and ecosystem services. Human society impacts ecosystems and can restore and conserve them. Meeting the objectives of climate resilient development thereby supporting human, ecosystem and planetary health, as well as human well-being, requires society and ecosystems to move over to a more resilient state. The recognition of climate risks can strengthen adaptation and mitigation actions and transitions that reduce risks. Taking action is enabled by governance, finance, knowledge and capacity building, technology and catalysing conditions. Transformation entails system transitions strengthening the resilience of ecosystems and society . In a) arrow colours represent principle human society interactions , ecosystem interactions and the impacts of climate change and human activities, including losses and damages, under continued climate change . In b) arrow colours represent human system interactions , ecosystem interactions and reduced impacts from climate change and human activities | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
Adaptation in this report is defined, in human systems, as the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In natural systems, adaptation is the process of adjustment to actual climate and its effects; human intervention may facilitate this . Adaptation planning in human systems generally entails a process of iterative risk management. Different types of adaptation have been distinguished, including anticipatory versus reactive, autonomous versus planned and incremental versus transformational adaptation. Adaptation is often seen as having five general stages: awareness, assessment, planning, implementation and monitoring and evaluation. Government, non-government, and private-sector actors have adopted a wide variety of specific approaches to adaptation that, to varying degrees, conform to these five general stages. Adaptation in natural systems includes autonomous adjustments through ecological and evolutionary processes. It also involves the use of nature through ecosystem-based adaptation. The role of species, biodiversity and ecosystems in such adaptation options can range from the rehabilitation or restoration of ecosystems to hybrid combinations of socalled green and grey infrastructure . The WGII AR6 emphasises the assessment of observed adaptation-related responses to climate change, governance and decision-making in adaptation and the role of adaptation in reducing key risks and globalscale reasons for concern, as well as limits to such adaptation. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
Vulnerability is a component of risk, but also, independently, an important focus. Vulnerability in this report is defined as the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected and encompasses a variety of concepts and elements, including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt . Over the past several decades, approaches to analysing and assessing vulnerability have evolved. An early emphasis on top-down, biophysical evaluation of vulnerability included-and often started with-exposure to climate hazards in assessing vulnerability. From this starting point, attention to bottom-up, social and contextual determinants of vulnerability, which often differ, has emerged, although this approach is incompletely applied or integrated across contexts. Vulnerability is now widely understood to differ within communities and across societies, also changing through time. In WGII AR6, assessment of the vulnerability of people and ecosystems encompasses the differing approaches that exist within the literature, both critiquing and harmonising them based on available evidence. In this context, exposure is defined as the presence of people; livelihoods; species or ecosystems; environmental functions, services and resources; infrastructure; or economic, social or cultural assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected. Potentially affected places and settings can be defined geographically, as well as more dynamically, for example through transmission or interconnections through markets or flows of people. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
Risk in this report is defined as the potential for adverse consequences for human or ecological systems, recognising the diversity of values and objectives associated with such systems. In the context of climate change impacts, risks result from dynamic interactions between climate-related hazards with the exposure and vulnerability of the affected human or ecological system. In the context of climate change responses, risks result from the potential for such responses not to achieve the intended objective or from potential trade-offs or negative side-effects. Risk management is defined as plans, actions, strategies or policies to reduce the likelihood and/or magnitude of adverse potential consequences, based on assessed or perceived risks. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
Resilience in this report is defined as the capacity of social, economic and environmental systems to cope with a hazardous event or trend or disturbance, responding or reorganising in ways that maintain their essential function, identity and structure while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning and transformation. Resilience is an entry point commonly used, although under a wide spectrum of meanings. Resilience as a system trait overlaps with concepts of vulnerability, adaptive capacity and, thus, risk, and resilience as a strategy overlaps with risk management, adaptation and transformation. Implemented adaptation is often organised around resilience as bouncing back and returning to a previous state after a disturbance. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
Assessments of climate risks consider possible future climate change, societal development and responses. This report assesses literature including that based on climate model simulations that are part of the fifth and sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase of the World Climate Research Programme. Future projections are driven by emissions and/or concentrations from illustrative Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socio-economic Pathways ' scenarios, respectively¹. Climate impacts literature is based primarily on climate projections assessed in ARS or earlier, or assumed global warming levels, though some recent impacts literature uses newer projections based on the CMIP6 exercise. Given differences in the impacts literature regarding socioeconomic details and assumptions, WGII chapters contextualize impacts with respect to exposure, vulnerability and adaptation as appropriate for their literature, this includes assessments regarding sustainable development and climate resilient development. There are many emissions and socioeconomic pathways that are consistent with a given global warming outcome. These represent a broad range of possibilities as available in the literature assessed that affect future climate change exposure and vulnerability. Where available, WGII also assesses literature that is based on an integrative SSP-RCP framework where climate projections obtained under the RCP scenarios are analysed against the backdrop of various illustrative SSPS². The WGIl assessment combines multiple lines of evidence including impacts modelling driven by climate projections, observations, and process understanding. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
WGI assessed increase in global surface temperature is 1.09 °C). Considering all five illustrative scenarios assessed by WGI, there is at least a greater than 50% likelihood that global warming will reach or exceed 1.5°C in the near-term, even for the very low greenhouse gas emissions scenario. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.1.4 Ecosystem change has led to the loss of specialised ecosystems where warming has reduced thermal habitat, as at the poles, at the tops of mountains and at the equator, with the hottest ecosystems becoming intolerable for many species . For example, warming, reduced ice, thawing permafrost and a changing hydrological cycle have resulted in the contraction of polar and mountain ecosystems. The Arctic is showing increased arrival of species from warmer areas on land and in the sea, with a declining extent of tundra and ice-dependent species, such as the polar bear . Similar patterns of change in the Antarctic terrestrial and marine environment are beginning to emerge, | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.1.3 At the warm edges of distributions, adaptation limits to human-induced warming have led to widespread local population losses that result in range contractions . Among land plants and animals, local population loss was detected in around 50% of studied species and is often attributable to extreme events . Such extirpations are most common in tropical habitats and freshwater systems , but also high in marine and terrestrial habitats. Many mountain-top species have suffered population losses along lower elevations, leaving them increasingly restricted to a smaller area and at higher risk of extinction . Global extinctions due to climate change are already being observed, with two extinctions currently attributed to anthropogenic climate change . Climate-induced extinctions, including mass extinctions, are common in the palaeo record, underlining the potential of climate change to have catastrophic impacts on species and ecosystems . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.1.2 Observed responses of species to climate change have altered biodiversity and impacted ecosystem structure and resilience in most regions . Range shifts reduce biodiversity in the warmest regions and locations as adaptation limits are exceeded . Simultaneously, these shifts homogenise biodiversity in regions receiving climate-migrant species, alter food webs and eliminate the distinctiveness of communities . Increasing losses of habitat-forming species such as trees, corals, kelp and seagrass have caused irreversible shifts in some ecosystems and threaten associated biodiversity in marine systems . Human-introduced invasive species can reduce or replace native species and alter ecosystem characteristics if they fare better than endemic species in new climate-altered ecological niches . Such invasive species effects are most prominent in geographically constrained areas, including islands, semi-enclosed seas and mountains, and they increase vulnerability in these systems . Phenological shifts increase the risks of temporal mismatches between trophic levels within ecosystems , which can lead to reduced food availability and population abundances and can further destabilise ecosystem resilience. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.1 Climate change has altered marine, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems all around the world . Effects were experienced earlier and are more widespread with more far-reaching consequences than anticipated . Biological responses, including changes in physiology, growth, abundance, geographic placement and shifting seasonal timing, are often not sufficient to cope with recent climate change . Climate change has caused local species losses, increases in disease and mass mortality events of plants and animals , resulting in the first climate-driven extinctions , ecosystem restructuring, increases in areas burned by wildfire and declines in key ecosystem services . Climatedriven impacts on ecosystems have caused measurable economic and livelihood losses and altered cultural practices and recreational activities around the world . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.1.1 Anthropogenic climate change has exposed ecosystems to conditions that are unprecedented over millennia , which has greatly impacted species on land and in the ocean . Consistent with expectations, species in all ecosystems have shifted their geographic ranges and altered the timing of seasonal events . Among thousands of species spread across terrestrial, freshwater and marine systems, half to two-thirds have shifted their ranges to higher latitudes , and approximately two-thirds have shifted towards earlier spring life events in response to warming. The move of diseases and their vectors has brought new diseases into the high Arctic and at higher elevations in mountain regions to which local wildlife and humans are not resistant . These processes have led to emerging hybridisation, competition, temporal or spatial mismatches in predator-prey, insectplant and host-parasite relationships and invasion of alien plant pests or pathogens . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
such as declining ranges of krill and emperor penguins . Coral reefs are suffering global declines, with abrupt shifts in community composition persisting for years . Deserts and tropical systems are decreasing in diversity due to heat stress and extreme events . In contrast, arid lands are displaying varied responses around the globe in response to regional changes in the hydrological cycle . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.2 Widespread and severe loss and damage to human and natural systems are being driven by human-induced climate changes increasing the frequency and/or intensity and/or duration of extreme weather events, including droughts, wildfires, terrestrial and marine heatwaves, cyclones and flood . Extremes are surpassing the resilience of some ecological and human systems and challenging the adaptation capacities of others, including impacts with irreversible consequences . Vulnerable people and human systems and climate-sensitive species and ecosystems are most at risk . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
knowledge and unique insights about plants and animals, are being lost . As 80% of the world's remaining biodiversity is on Indigenous homelands, these losses have cascading impacts on cultural and linguistic diversity and Indigenous knowledge systems, food security, health, and livelihoods, often with irreparable damage and consequences . Cultural losses threaten adaptive capacity and may accumulate into intergenerational trauma and irrevocable losses of sense of belonging, valued cultural practices, identity and home . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.2.1 Extreme climate events comprising conditions beyond which many species are adapted are occurring on all continents, with severe impacts . The most severe impacts are occurring in the most climate-sensitive species and ecosystems, characterised by traits that limit their abilities to regenerate between events or to adapt, and those most exposed to climate hazards . Losses of local plant and animal populations have been widespread, many associated with large increases in hottest yearly temperatures and heatwave events . Marine heatwave events have led to widespread, abrupt and extensive mortality of key habitat-forming species among tropical corals, kelps, seagrasses and mangroves, as well as mass mortality of wildlife species, including benthic sessile species . On land, extreme heat events also have been implicated in the mass mortality of fruit bats | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.1.5 Climate change is affecting ecosystem services connected to human health, livelihoods and well-being . In terrestrial ecosystems, carbon uptake services linked to CO₂ fertilisation effects are being increasingly limited by drought and warming and exacerbated by non-climatic anthropogenic impacts . Deforestation, draining and burning of peatlands and tropical forests and thawing of Arctic permafrost have already shifted some areas from being carbon sinks to carbon sources . The severity and outbreak extent of forest insect pests increased in several regions . Woody plant expansion into grasslands and savannahs, linked to increased CO₂, has reduced grazing land, while invasive grasses in semiarid lands increased the risk of fire . Coastal blue carbon' systems are already impacted by multiple climate and nonclimate drivers . Warming and CO₂ fertilisation have altered coastal ecosystem biodiversity, making carbon storage or release regionally variable . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
Climate change has already had diverse adverse impacts on human systems, including on water security and food production, health and well-being, and cities, settlements and infrastructure. The + and-symbols indicate the direction of observed impacts, with a-denoting an increasing adverse impact and a denoting that, within a region or globally, both adverse and positive impacts have been observed . Globally, "-" denotes an overall adverse impact, 'Water scarcity' considers, e.g., water availability in general groundwater, water quality, demand for water drought in cities. Impacts on food production were assessed by excluding non-climatic drivers of production increases; Global assessment for agricultural production is based on the impacts on global aggregated production: Reduced animal and livestock health and productivity considers, e.g., heat stress, diseases, productivity, mortality: "Reduced fisheries yields and aquaculture production includes marine and freshwater fisheries/production, Infectious diseases include, e.g., water-bome and vector-borne diseases; "Heat, malnutrition and other' considers, e.g., human heat-related morbidity and mortality, labour productivity, harm from wildfire, nutritional deficiencies; "Mental health includes impacts from extreme weather events, cumulative events, and vicarious or anticipatory events; 'Displacement' assessments refer to evidence of displacement attributable to climate and weather extremes; Inland flooding and associated damages' considers, eg, river overflows, heavy rain, glacier outbursts, urban flooding: 'Flood/storm induced damages in coastal areas include damages due to, e.g., cyclones, sea level rise, storm surges. Damages by key economic sectors are observed impacts related to an attributable mean or extreme climate hazard or directly attributed. Key economic sectors include standard classifications and sectors of importance to regions . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.2.3 Climate-related extremes have affected the productivity of agricultural, forestry and fishery sectors . Droughts, floods, wildfires and marine heatwaves contribute to reduced food availability and increased food prices, threatening food security, nutrition and livelihoods of millions of people across regions . Extreme events caused economic losses in forest productivity and crops and livestock farming, including losses in wheat production in 2012, 2016 and 2018, with the severity of impacts from extreme heat and drought tripling over the last 50 years in Europe . Forests were impacted by extreme heat and drought impacting timber sales, for example, in Europe . Marine heatwaves, including well-documented events along the west coast of North America and east coast of Australia , have caused the collapse of regional fisheries and aquaculture . Human populations exposed to extreme weather and climate events are at risk of food insecurity with lower diversity in diets, leading to malnutrition and increased risk of disease . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.3.2 Warming has altered the distribution, growing area suitability and timing of key biological events, such as flowering and insect emergence, impacting food quality and harvest stability . There is high confidence that climate change is altering the distribution of cultivated and wild terrestrial, marine and freshwater species. At higher latitudes, warming has expanded the available area but has also altered phenology , potentially causing plant-pollinator and pest mismatches . At low latitudes, temperatures have crossed upper tolerance thresholds, more frequently leading to heat stress and/ or shifts in distribution and losses for crops, livestock, fisheries and aquaculture . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B 3.1 Climate change impacts are negatively affecting agriculture, forestry, fisheries and aquaculture, increasingly hindering efforts to meet human needs . Human-induced global warming has slowed the growth of agricultural productivity over the past 50 years in mid and low latitudes . Crop yields are compromised by surface ozone . Methane emissions have negatively impacted crop yields by increasing temperatures and surface ozone concentrations . Warming is negatively affecting crop and grassland quality and harvest stability . Warmer and drier conditions have increased tree mortality and forest disturbances in many temperate and boreal biomes , negatively impacting provisioning services . Ocean warming has decreased sustainable yields of some wild fish populations by 4.1% between 1930 and 2010. Ocean acidification and warming have already affected farmed aquatic species . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.2.4 Extreme climatic events have been observed in all inhabited regions, with many regions experiencing unprecedented consequences, particularly when multiple hazards occur at the same time or within the same space . Since ARS, the impacts of climate change and extreme weather events such as wildfires, extreme heat, cyclones, storms and floods have adversely affected or caused loss and damage to human health, shelter, displacement, incomes and livelihoods, security and inequality . Over 20 million people have been internally displaced annually by weather-related extreme events since 2008, with storms and floods the most common drivers . Climate-related extreme events are followed by negative impacts on mental health, well-being, life satisfaction, happiness, | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.2.2 Some extreme events have already emerged which exceeded projected global mean warming conditions for 2100, leading to abrupt changes in marine and terrestrial ecosystems . For some forest types an increase in the frequency, severity and duration of wildfires and droughts has resulted in abrupt and possibly irreversible changes . The interplay between extreme events, long-term climate trends and other human pressures has pushed some climate-sensitive ecosystems towards thresholds that exceed their natural regenerative capacity . Extreme events can alter or impede evolutionary responses to climate change and the potential for acclimation to extreme conditions both on land and in the ocean . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.4.2 Worldwide, people are increasingly experiencing unfamiliar precipitation patterns, including extreme precipitation events . Nearly half a billion people now live in areas where the long-term average precipitation is now as high as was previously seen in only about 1 in 6 years . Approximately 163 million people now live in unfamiliarly dry areas compared to 50 years ago. The intensity of heavy precipitation has increased in many regions since the 1950s . Substantially more people live in regions where annual maximum 1-d precipitation has increased than in regions where it has decreased since the 1950s. At the same time, more people have been experiencing longer dry spells than shorter dry spells since the 1950s , leading to compound hazards related to both warming and precipitation extremes in most parts of the world | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
city and hazards and is further exacerbated by inadequate water governance . Extreme events and underlying vulnerabilities have intensified the societal impacts of droughts and floods, negatively impacted agriculture and energy production and increased the incidence of water-borne diseases. Economic and societal impacts of water insecurity are more pronounced in low-income countries than in middle- and high-income ones . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.3.3 Climate-related extremes have affected the productivity of all agricultural and fishery sectors, with negative consequences for food security and livelihoods . The frequency of sudden food production losses has increased since at least the mid20th century on land and sea . The impacts of climate-related extremes on food security, nutrition and livelihoods are particularly acute and severe for people living in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, small islands, Central and South America and the Arctic and small-scale food producers globally . Droughts induced by the 2015-2016 El Niño, partially attributable to human influences , caused acute food insecurity in various regions, including eastern and southern Africa and the Dry Corridor of Central America . In the northeast Pacific, a 5-year warm period impacted the migration, distribution and abundance of key fish resources . Increasing variability in grazing systems has negatively affected animal fertility, mortality and herd recovery rates, reducing livestock keepers' resilience . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.4.1 Climate change has intensified the global hydrological cycle, causing several societal impacts, which are felt disproportionately by vulnerable people . Human-induced climate change has affected physical aspects of water security through increasing water scarcity and exposing more people to water-related extreme events like floods and droughts, thereby exacerbating existing water-related vulnerabilities caused by other socioeconomic factors . Many of these changes in water availability and water-related hazards can be directly attributed to anthropogenic climate change . Water insecurity disproportionately impacts the poor, women, children, Indigenous Peoples and the elderly in low-income countries and specific marginal geographies . Water insecurity can contribute to social unrest in regions where inequality is high and water governance and institutions are weak . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.3.5 The impacts of climate change on food systems affect everyone, but some groups are more vulnerable.Women, the elderly and children in low-income households, Indigenous Peoples, minority groups, small-scale producers and fishing communities and people in high-risk regions more often experience malnutrition, livelihood loss and rising costs . Increasing competition for critical resources, such as land, energy and water, can exacerbate the impacts of climate change on food security . Examples include large-scale land deals, water use, dietary patterns, energy crops and use of feed crops. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.3.4 Climate-related emerging food safety risks are increasing globally in agriculture and fisheries . Higher temperatures and humidity caused by climate change increases toxigenic fungi on many food crops . Harmful algal blooms and water-borne diseases threaten food security and the economy and livelihoods of many coastal communities . Increasing ocean warming and acidification are enhancing movement and bioaccumulation of toxins and contaminants into marine food webs and with bio-magnification of persistent organic pollutants and methyl mercury already affecting fisheries . Indigenous Peoples and local communities, especially where food safety monitoring is underdeveloped, are among the most vulnerable to these risks, in particular in the Arctic . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.5 Climate change has already harmed human physical and mental health . In all regions, health impacts often undermine efforts for inclusive development. Women, children, the elderly, Indigenous People, low-income households and socially marginalised groups within cities, settlements, regions and countries are the most vulnerable . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.4.5 Climate-induced changes in the hydrological cycle have negatively impacted freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems. Climate change and changes in land use and water pollution are key drivers of ecosystem loss and degradation , with negative impacts observed on culturally significant terrestrial and freshwater species and ecosystems in the Arctic, mountain regions and other biodiversity hotspots . Climate trends and extreme events have had major impacts on many natural systems . For example, periodic droughts in parts of the Amazon since the 1990s, partly attributed to climate change, resulted in high tree mortality rates and basin-wide reductions in forest productivity, momentarily turning Amazon forests from a carbon sink into a net carbon source . Fire risks have increased due to heat and drought conditions in many parts of the world . Increased precipitation has resulted in range shifts of | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.4.6 Hydrological cycle changes have impacted food and energy production and increased the incidence of water-borne diseases. Climate-induced trends and extremes in the water cycle have impacted agricultural production positively and negatively, with negative impacts outweighing the positive ones . Droughts, floods and rainfall variability have contributed to reduced food availability and increased food prices, threatening food and nutrition security, and the livelihoods of millions globally , with the poor in parts of Asia, Africa and South and Central America being disproportionately affected . Drought years have reduced thermoelectric and hydropower production by around 4-5% compared to long-term average production since the 1980s , reducing economic growth in Africa and with billions in US dollars of existing and planned hydropower infrastructure assets in mountain regions worldwide and in Africa exposed to increasing hazards . Changes in temperature, precipitation and water-related disasters are linked to increased incidences of waterborne diseases such as cholera, especially in regions with limited access to safe water, sanitation and hygiene infrastructure . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.4.3 Glaciers are melting at unprecedented rates, causing negative societal impacts among communities that depend on cryospheric water resources . Over the last two decades, the global glacier mass loss rate has been the highest since the glacier mass balance measurements began a century ago . Melting of glaciers, snow decline and thawing of permafrost have threatened the water and livelihood security of local and downstream communities through changes in hydrological regimes and increases in the potential of landslides and glacier lake outburst floods. Cryosphere changes have impacted cultural uses of water among vulnerable mountain and Arctic communities and Indigenous Peoples , who have long experienced historical, socioeconomic and political marginalisation . Cryosphere change has affected ecosystems, water resources, livelihoods and cultural uses of water in all cryospheredependent regions across the world . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
higr confidence). Anthropogenic dimate change has led to increased likelihood, severity and societal impacts of droughts in many regions . Between 1970 and 2019, drought-related disaster events worldwide caused billions of dollars in economic damages . Drylands are particularly exposed to climate change related droughts . Recent heavy rainfall events that have led to catastrophic flooding were made more likely by anthropogenic climate change . Observed mortality and losses due to floods and droughts are much greater in regions with high vulnerability and vulnerable populations such as the poor, women, children, Indigenous Peoples and the elderly due to historical political and socioeconomic inequities . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.5.6 Higher temperatures combined with land use/land cover change are making more areas suitable for the transmission of vector-borne diseases . More extreme weather events have contributed to vector-borne disease outbreaks in humans through direct effects on pathogens and vectors and indirect effects on human behaviour and emergency response destabilisation . Climate change and variability are facilitating the spread of chikungunya virus in North, Central and South America, Europe and Asia ; tick-borne encephalitis in Europe ; Rift Valley fever in Africa; West Nile fever in southeastern Europe, western Asia, the Canadian prairies and parts of the USA ; Lyme disease vectors in North America and Europe ; malaria in eastern and southern Africa ; and dengue globally . For example, in Central and South America, the reproduction potential for the transmission of dengue increased between 17% and 80% for the period 1950-1954 to 2016-2021, depending on the sub-region, as a result of changes in temperature and precipitation . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
3 e y s . These risks include Salmonella, Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium infections mycotoxins associated with cancer and stunting in children and seafood contamination with marine toxins and pathogens . Climate-related food-borne disease risks vary temporally and are influenced, in part, by food availability, accessibility, preparation and preferences , as well as adequate food safety monitoring . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.5.2 Mental health challenges increase with warming temperatures , trauma associated with extreme weather and loss of livelihoods and culture . Distress sufficient to impair mental health has been caused by climate-related ecological grief associated with environmental change or extreme weather and climate events , vicarious experience or anticipation of climate events and climate-related loss of livelihoods and food insecurity . Vulnerability to mental health effects of climate change varies by region and population, with evidence that Indigenous Peoples, agricultural communities, first responders, women and members of minority groups experience greater impacts . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.5.4 Climate change has contributed to malnutrition in all its forms in many regions, including undernutrition, overnutrition and obesity, and to disease susceptibility , especially for women, pregnant women, children, low-income households, Indigenous Peoples, minority groups and small-scale producers . Extreme climate events have been key drivers in rising undemnutrition of millions of people, primarily in Africa and Central America . For example, anthropogenic warming contributed to climate extremes induced by the 2015-2016 El Niño, which resulted in severe droughts, leading to an additional 5.9 million children in 51 countries becoming underweight . Undernutrition can in turn increase susceptibility to other health problems, including mental health problems, and impair cognitive and work performance, with resulting economic impacts . Children and pregnant women experience disproportionate adverse health and nutrition impacts . (5.12.3, 7.2.4, | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.5.3 Increasing temperatures and heatwaves have increased mortality and morbidity , with impacts that vary by age, gender, urbanisation and socioeconomic factors . A significant proportion of warm-season heat-related mortality in temperate regions is attributed to observed anthropogenic climate change , with fewer data available for tropical regions in Africa . For some heatwave events over the last two decades, associated health impacts have been partially attributed to observed climate change . Highly vulnerable groups experiencing health impacts from heat stress include anyone working outdoors and, especially, those doing outdoor manual labour . Potential hours of work lost due to heat have increased significantly over the past two decades . Some regions are already experiencing heat stress conditions at or approaching the upper limits of labour productivity . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.5.9 Several chronic, non-communicable respiratory diseases are climate-sensitive based on their exposure pathways , although climate change is not the dominant driver in all cases. Exposure to wildfires and associated smoke has increased in several regions . The 2019-2020 southeastern Australian wildfires resulted in the deaths of 33 people, a further 429 deaths and 3230 hospitalisations due to cardiovascular or respiratory conditions and $1.95 billion in health costs. Spring pollen season start dates in northern mid-latitudes are occurring earlier due to climate change, increasing the risks of allergic respiratory diseases . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.6.3 Outcomes of climate-related migration are highly variable, with socioeconomic factors and household resources affecting migration success . The more agency migrants have , the greater the potential benefits for sending and receiving areas . Displacement or low-agency migration is associated with poor health, well-being and socioeconomic outcomes for migrants and yields fewer benefits to sending or receiving communities . Involuntary migration occurs when adaptation alternatives are exhausted or not viable and reflects non-climatic factors that constrain adaptive capacity and create high levels of exposure and vulnerability . These outcomes are also shaped by policy and planning decisions at regional, national and local scales that relate to housing, infrastructure, water provisioning, schools and healthcare to support the integration of migrants into receiving communities . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.7 Vulnerability significantly determines how climate change impacts are being experienced by societies and communities. Vulnerability to climate change is a multi-dimensional dynamic phenomenon shaped by intersecting historical and contemporary political, economic and cultural processes of marginalisation . Societies with high levels of inequity are less resilient to climate change . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.6 Since AR5 there is increased evidence that climate hazards associated with extreme events and variability act as direct drivers of involuntary migration and displacement and as indirect drivers through deteriorating climate-sensitive livelihoods . Most climate-related displacement and migration occur within national boundaries, with international movements occurring primarily between countries with contiguous borders . Since 2008, an annual average of over 20 million people have been internally displaced annually by weather-related extreme events, with storms and floods being the most common . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.6.1 The most common climatic drivers for migration and displacement are drought, tropical storms and hurricanes, heavy rains and floods . Extreme climate events act as both direct drivers and indirect drivers of involuntary migration and displacement . The largest absolute number of people displaced by extreme weather each year occurs in Asia , followed by sub-Saharan Africa, but small island states in the Caribbean and South Pacific are disproportionately affected relative to their small population size . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
or rural to rural, that is associated with labour diversification as a riskreduction strategy in Central America, Africa, South Asia and Mexico . This movement is often followed by remittances . However, the same economic losses can also undermine household resources and savings, limiting mobility and compounding people's exposure and vulnerability . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.6.2 The impacts of climatic drivers on migration are highly context-specific and interact with social, political geopolitical and economic drivers . Specific climate events and conditions cause migration to increase, decrease or flow in new directions . One of the main pathways for climate induced migration is through deteriorating economic conditions and livelihoods . Climate change has influenced changes in temporary, seasonal or permanent migration, often rural to urban | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.6.4 Immobility in the context of climatic risk reflects both vulnerability and lack of agency, but is also a deliberate choice . Deliberate or voluntary, immobility represents an assertion of the importance of culture, livelihood and sense of place. Planned relocations by governments of settlements and populations exposed to climatic hazards are not presently commonplace, although the need is expected to grow. Existing examples of relocations of Indigenous Peoples in coastal Alaska and villages in the Solomon Islands and Fiji suggest that relocated people can experience significant financial and emotional distress as cultural and spiritual bonds to place and livelihoods are disrupted . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.8.1 Globally, urban populations grew by more than 397 million people between 2015 and 2020, with more than 90% of this growth taking place in less developed regions. The most rapid growth in urban vulnerability has been in unplanned and informal settlements and in smaller to medium urban centres in low- and middle-income nations where adaptive capacity is limited . Since ARS, observed impacts of climate change on cities, peri-urban areas and settlements have extended from direct, climate-driven impacts to compound, cascading and systemic impacts . Patterns of urban growth, inequity, poverty, informality and precariousness in housing are uneven and shape cities in key regions, such as within Africa and Asia. In sub-Saharan Africa, about 60% of the urban population lives in informal settlements, while Asia is home to the largest share of people-529 millionliving in informal settlements. The high degree of informality limits adaptation and increases differential vulnerability to climate change . Globally, exposure to climate-driven impacts such as heatwaves, extreme precipitation and storms in combination with rapid urbanisation and lack of climate-sensitive planning, along with continuing threats from urban heat islands, is increasing the vulnerability of marginalised urban populations and key infrastructure to climate change, for example, more frequent and/ or extreme rainfall and drought stress existing design and capacity of current urban water systems and heighten urban and peri-urban water insecurity . COVID-19 has had a substantial urban impact and generated new climate-vulnerable populations . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
Approximately 1.8 billion people reside in regions classified as having low vulnerability. Global concentrations of high vulnerability are emerging in transboundary areas encompassing more than one country as a result of interlinked issues concerning health, poverty, migration, conflict, gender inequality, inequity, education, high debt, weak institutions, lack of governance capacities and infrastructure. Complex human vulnerability patterns are shaped by past developments, such as colonialism and its ongoing legacy , are worsened by compounding and cascading risks and are socially differentiated. For example, low-income, young, poor and femaleheaded households face greater livelihood risks from climate hazards . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.8 Cities and settlements have continued to grow at rapid rates and remain crucial both as concentrated sites of increased exposure to risk and increasing vulnerability and as sites of action on climate change . More people and key assets are exposed to climate-induced impacts, and loss and damage in cities, settlements and key infrastructure since ARS . Sea level rise, heatwaves, droughts, changes in runoff, floods, wildfires and permafrost thaw cause disruptions of key infrastructure and services such as energy supply and transmission, communications, food and water supply and transport systems in and between urban and peri-urban areas . The most rapid growth in urban vulnerability and exposure has been in cities and settlements where adaptive capacity is limited, including informal settlements in low- and middle-income communities and in smaller and medium-sized urban communities . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.7.2 Climate change is impacting Indigenous Peoples' ways of life , cultural and linguistic diversity , food security and health and well-being . Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge can contribute to reducing the vulnerability of communities to climate change . Supporting Indigenous self-determination, recognising Indigenous Peoples' rights and supporting Indigenous knowledge-based adaptation are critical to reducing climate change risks and effective adaptation . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.7.4 Climate variability and extremes are associated with more prolonged conflict through food price spikes, food and water insecurity, loss of income and loss of livelihoods , with more consistent evidence for lowintensity organised violence within countries than for major or international armed conflict . Compared to other socioeconomic factors, the influence of climate on conflict has been assessed as being relatively weak but is exacerbated by insecure land tenure, weather-sensitive economic activities, weak institutions and fragile governance, poverty and inequality . The literature also suggests a larger dimate-related influence on the dynamics of conflict than on the likelihood of initial conflict outbreak . There is insufficient evidence at present to attribute armed conflict to humaninduced climate change. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
already experiencing severe compounding impacts, including from sea level rise and climate variability . Coastal cities are disproportionately affected by interacting, cascading and dimate-compounding climate and ocean-driven impacts, in part because of the exposure of multiple assets, economic activities and large populations concentrated in narrow coastal zones , with about a tenth of the world's population and physical assets in the Low Elevation Coastal Zone . Early impacts of accelerating sea level rise have been detected at sheltered or subsiding coasts, manifesting as nuisance and chronic flooding at high tides, water-table salinisation, ecosystem and agricultural transitions, increased erosion and coastal flood damage . Coastal settlements with high inequality, for example a high proportion of informal settlements, as well as deltaic cities prone to land subsidence and small island states are highly vulnerable and have experienced impacts from severe storms and floods in addition to, or in combination with, those from accelerating sea level rise . Currently, coastal cities already dependent on extensive protective works face the prospects of significantly increasing costs to maintain current protection levels, especially if the local sea level rises to the point that financial and technical limits are reached; systemic changes, such as relocation of millions of people, will be necessary . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.9.1 Economic losses of climate change arise from adverse impacts on inputs, such as crop yields , water availability and outdoor labour productivity due to heat stress . Greater economic losses are observed for sectors with high direct climate exposure, including regional losses to agriculture, forestry, fisheries, energy and tourism . Many industrial and service sectors are indirectly affected through supply disruptions, especially during and following extreme events . Costs are also incurred from adaptation, disaster spending, recovery and rebuilding of infrastructure . Estimates of the global effects of climate change on aggregate measures of economic performance and gross domestic product range from negative to positive, in part due to uncertainty in how weather variability and climate impacts manifest in GDP . Climate change is estimated to have slowed trends of decreasing economic inequality between developed and developing countries , with particularly negative effects for Africa . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.9 The effects of climate change impacts have been observed across economic sectors, although the magnitude of the damage varies by sector and by region . Recent extreme weather and climate-induced events have been associated with large costs through damaged property, infrastructure and supply chain disruptions, although development patterns have driven much of these increases . Adverse impacts on economic growth have been identified from extreme weather events with large effects in developing countries . Widespread climate impacts have undermined economic livelihoods, especially among vulnerable populations . Climate impacts and projected risks have been insufficiently internalised into private and public-sector planning and budgeting practices and adaptation finance . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.8.4 Infrastructure systems provide critical services to individuals, society and the economy in both urban and rural areas; their availability and reliability directly or indirectly influence the attainment of all SDGs . Due to the connectivity of infrastructure systems, climate impacts, such as with thawing permafrost or severe storms affecting energy and transport networks, can propagate outside the reach of the hazard footprint and cause larger impacts and widespread regional disruption . Interdependencies between infrastructure systems have created new pathways for compounding climate risk, which has been accelerated by trends in information and communication technologies, increased reliance on energy, and complex supply chains . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.9.2 A growing range of economic and non-economic losses has been detected and attributed to climate extremes and slow-onset events under observed increases in global temperatures in both low- and high-income countries . Extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones, droughts and severe fluvial floods, have reduced economic growth in the short term and will continue to reduce it in the coming decades in both developing and industrialised countries. Patterns of development have augmented the exposure of more assets to extreme hazards, increasing the magnitude of the losses . Small Island Developing States have reported economic losses and a wide range of damage from tropical cyclones and increases in sea level rise . Wildfires partly attributed to climate change have caused substantial economic | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.1.1 Near-term warming will continue to cause plants and animals to alter their timing of seasonal events and to move their geographic ranges . Risks escalate with additional near-term warming in all regions and domains . Without urgent and deep emissions reductions, some species and ecosystems, especially those in polar and already-warm areas, will face temperatures beyond their historical experience in coming decades . Unique and threatened ecosystems are expected to be at high risk in the very near term at 1.2°C global warming levels due to mass tree mortality, coral reef bleaching, large declines in sea-ice-dependent species and mass mortality events from heatwaves. Even for less vulnerable species and systems, projected climate change risks surpass hard limits to natural adaptation, increasing species at high risk of population declines and loss of critical habitats and compromising ecosystem structure, functioning and resilience . At a global warming of 2°C with associated changes in precipitation global land area burned by wildfire is projected to increase by 35% . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
This section identifies future impacts and risks under different degrees of climate change. As a result, 127 key risks have been found across regions and sectors. These are integrated as eight overarching risks which relate to low-lying coastal systems; terrestrial and ocean ecosystems; critical physical infrastructure, networks and services; living standards and equity; human health; food security; water security; and peace and migration. Risks are projected to become severe with increased warming and under ecological or societal conditions of high exposure and vulnerability. The intertwined issues of biodiversity loss and climatic change together with human demographic changes, particularly rapid growth in lowincome countries, an ageing population in high-income countries and rapid urbanisation are seen as core issues in understanding risk distribution at all scales. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.1.2 Risks to ecosystem integrity, functioning and resilience are projected to escalate with every tenth of a degree increase in global warming . Beginning at 1.5°C warming, natural adaptation faces hard limits, driving high risks of biodiversity decline, mortality, species extinction and loss of related livelihoods . At 1.6°C , >10% of species are projected to become endangered, increasing to >20% at 2.1°C, representing severe biodiversity risk . These risks escalate with warming, most rapidly and severely in areas at both extremes of temperature and precipitation . With warming of 3°C, >80% of marine species across large parts of the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean will experience potentially dangerous climate conditions . Beyond 4°C warming, projected impacts expand, including extirpation of approx. 50% of tropical marine species and biome shifts across 35% of global land area . These will lead to a shift of much of the Amazon rainforest to drier and lower-biomass vegetation , poleward shifts of boreal forest into treeless tundra across the Arctic and upslope shifts of montane forests into alpine grassland | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.9.4 Current planning and budgeting practices have given insufficient consideration to climate impacts and projected risks, placing more assets and people in regions with current and projected climate hazards . Existing adaptation has prevented greater economic losses , yet adaptation gaps remain due to limited financial resources, including gaps in international adaptation finance and competing priorities in budget allocations . Insufficient consideration of these impacts, however, has placed more assets in areas that are highly exposed to climate hazards . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.9.3 Economic livelihoods that are more climate sensitive have been disproportionately degraded by climate change . Climate-sensitive livelihoods are more concentrated in regions that have higher socioeconomic vulnerabilities and lower adaptive capacities, exacerbating existing inequalities . Extreme events have also had more pronounced adverse effects in poorer regions and on more vulnerable populations . These greater economic effects have further reduced the ability of these populations to adapt to existing impacts . Within populations, the poor, women, children, elderly and Indigenous populations have been especially vulnerable due to a combination of factors, including gendered divisions of paid and/ or unpaid labour . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
for percentage of species at very high risk of extinction are 9% at 1.5°C, 10% at 2 °C, 12% at 3°C, 13% at 4°C and 15% at 5°C , with the likely range of estimates having a maximum of 14% at 1.5°C and rising to a maximum of 48% at 5°C. Extinction risks are higher for species in biodiversity hotspots , reaching 24% of species at very high extinction risk above 1.5°C, with yet higher proportions for endemic species of 84% in mountains and 100 % on islands . Thousands of individual populations are projected to be locally lost, which will reduce species diversity in some areas where there are no species moving in to replace them, for example, in tropical systems . Novel species interactions at the cold edge of species' distribution may also lead to extirpations and extinctions of newly encountered species . Palaeo records indicate that at extreme warming levels , mass extinctions of species occur . Among the thousands of species at risk, many are species of ecological, cultural and economic importance. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.1.4 Changes induced by climate change in the physiology, biomass, structure and extent of ecosystems will determine their future carbon storage capacity . In terrestrial ecosystems, the fertilisation effects of high atmospheric CO₂ concentrations on carbon uptake will be increasingly saturated and limited by warming and drought . Increases in wildfires, tree mortality, insect pest outbreaks, peatland drying and permafrost thaw all exacerbate self-reinforcing feedbacks between emissions from high-carbon ecosystems and warming with the potential to turn many ecosystems that are currently net carbon sinks into sources . In coastal areas beyond 1.5°C warming, blue carbon storage by mangroves, marshes and seagrass habitats are increasingly threatened by rising sea levels and the intensity, duration and extent of marine heatwaves, as well as adaptation options . Changes in ocean stratification are projected to reduce nutrient supply and alter the magnitude and efficiency of the biological carbon pump . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.2 Cumulative stressors and extreme events are projected to increase in magnitude and frequency and will accelerate projected climate-driven shifts in ecosystems and loss of the services they provide to people . These processes will exacerbate both stress on systems already at risk from climate impacts and non-climate impacts like habitat fragmentation and pollution . The increasing frequency and severity of extreme events will decrease the recovery time available for ecosystems . Irreversible changes will occur from the interaction of stressors and the occurrence of extreme events , such as the expansion of arid systems or total loss of stony coral and sea ice communities. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.2.1. Ecosystem integrity is threatened by the positive feedback between direct human impacts and climate change . In the case of the Amazon forest, this could lead to large-scale ecological transformations and shifts from a closed, wet forest into a drier and lower-biomass vegetation . If these pressures are not successfully addressed, the combined and interactive effects between climate change, deforestation and forest degradation, and forest fires are projected to lead to a reduction of over 60% of the area covered by forest in response to 2.5°C global warming level . Some habitat-forming coastal ecosystems, including many coral reefs, kelp forests and seagrass meadows, will undergo irreversible phase shifts due to marine heatwaves with global warming levels >1.5°C and are at high risk this century even in <1.5°C scenarios that include periods of temperature overshoot beyond 1.5°C . Under SSP1-2.6, coral reefs are at risk of widespread decline, loss of structural integrity and transitioning to net erosion by mid-century due to the increasing intensity and frequency of marine heatwaves . Due to these impacts, the rate of sea level rise is very likely | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.1.3 Damage and degradation of ecosystems exacerbate the projected impacts of climate change on biodiversity . Space for nature is shrinking as large areas of forest are lost to deforestation , peat draining and agricultural expansion, land reclamation and protection structures in urban and coastal settlements . Currently less than 15% of the land and 8% of the ocean are under some form of protection, and enforcement of protection is often weak . Future ecosystem vulnerability will strongly depend on developments in society, including demographic and economic change . Deforestation is projected to increase the threat to terrestrial ecosystems, as is increasing the use of hard coastal protection of cities and settlements by the sea for coastal ecosystems. Coordinated and well-monitored habitat restoration, protection and management, combined with consumer pressure and incentives, can reduce nonclimatic impacts and increase resilience . Adaptation and mitigation options, such as afforestation, dam construction and coastal infrastructure placements, can increase vulnerability, compete for land and water and generate risks for the integrity and functioning of ecosystems . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
to exceed that of reef growth by 2050, absent adaptation. In response to heatwaves, bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef is projected to occur annually if warming increases above 2.0°C, resulting in widespread decline and loss of structural integrity . Global warming of 3.0°C-3.5°C increases the likelihood of extreme and lethal heat events in western and northern Africa and across Asia. Drought risks are projected to increase in many regions over the 21st century . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.3.1 Climate change will increasingly add pressure on terrestrial food production systems with every increment of warming . Some current global crop and livestock areas will become climatically unsuitable depending on the emissions scenario . Compared to 1.5°C global warming level, 2°C global warming level will even further negatively impact food production where current temperatures are already high as in lower latitudes . Increased and potentially concurrent climate extremes will increase simultaneous losses in major food-producing regions . The adverse effects of climate change on food production will become more severe when global temperatures rise by more than 2°C . At 3°C or higher global warming levels, exposure to climate hazards will grow substantially , further stressing food production, notably in sub-Saharan Africa and South and South East Asia . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.2.3 The ability of natural ecosystems to provide carbon storage and sequestration is increasingly impacted by heat, wildfire, droughts, loss and degradation of vegetation from land use and other impacts . Limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C, could reduce projected permafrost CO, losses by 2100 by 24.2 GtC . A temperature rise of 4°C by 2100 is projected to increase global burned area 50-70% and fire frequency by approx. 30%, potentially releasing 11-200 GtC from the Arctic alone . Changes in plankton community structure and productivity are projected to reduce carbon sequestration at depth . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.2.2 Pests, weeds and disease occurrence and distribution are projected to increase with global warming, amplified by climate change induced extreme events , with negative consequences for ecosystem health, food security, human health and livelihoods . Invasive plant species are predicted to expand both in latitude and altitude . Climatically disrupted ecosystems will make organisms more susceptible to disease via reduced immunity and biodiversity losses, which can increase disease transmission. Risks of climate-driven emerging zoonoses will increase. Depending on location and human-wildlife interactions, climate-driven shifts in distributions of wild animals increase the risk of emergence of novel human infectious diseases, as has occurred with SARS, MERS and SARS-CoV-2 . Changes in the rates of reproduction and distribution of weeds, insect pests, pathogens and disease vectors will increase biotic stress on crops, forests and livestock . Pest and disease outbreaks will require greater use of control measures, increasing the cost of production, food safety impacts and the risk of biodiversity loss and ecosystem impacts. These control measures will become costlier under climate change . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.3 Climate change will increasingly add pressure on food production systems, undermining food security . With every increment of warming, exposure to climate hazards will grow substantially , and adverse impacts on all food sectors will become prevalent, further stressing food security . Regional disparity in risks to food security will grow with warming levels, increasing poverty traps, particularly in regions characterised by a high level of human vulnerability . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.3.4 Climate change is projected to increase malnutrition through reduced nutritional quality, access to balanced food and inequality . Increased CO₂ concentrations promote crop growth and yield but reduce the density of important nutrients in some crops with projected increases in undernutrition and micronutrient deficiency, particularly in countries that currently have high levels of nutrient deficiency and regions with low access to diverse foods . Marine-dependent communities, including Indigenous Peoples and local peoples, will be at increased risk of malnutrition due to losses of seafood-sourced nutrients . (3.5.3, 5.2.2, 5.4.2, | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
are estimated to increase nutrition-related diseases and the number of undernourished people by 2050, affecting tens to hundreds of millions of people , particularly among low-income households in low- and middle-income countries in subSaharan Africa, South Asia and Central America , for example, between 8 million under SSP1-6.0 to up to 80 million people under SSP3-6.0. At 3°C or higher global warming levels, adverse impacts on all food sectors will become prevalent, further stressing food availability , agricultural labour productivity and food access . Regional disparity in risks to food security will grow at these higher warming levels, increasing poverty traps, particularly in regions characterised by a high level of human vulnerability . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
decrease by 5.7% ± 4.1% and 15.5% 8.5% under SSP1-2.6 and SSPS-8.5 respectively by 2080-2099 relative to 1995-2014 , affecting food provisioning, revenue value and distribution Catch composition will change regionally, and the vulnerability of fishers will partially depend on their ability to move, diversify and leverage technology . Global marine aquaculture will decline under increasing temperature and acidification conditions by 2100, with potential short-term gains for finfish aquaculture in some temperate regions and overall negative impacts on bivalve aquaculture due to habitat reduction . Changes in precipitation, sea level rise, temperature and extreme events will negatively affect food provisioning from inland aquatic systems , which provide a significant source of livelihoods and food for direct human consumption, particularly in Asia and Africa. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
Global surface temperature changes in °C relative to 1850-1900. These changes were obtained by combining CMIP6 model simulations with observational constraints based on past simulated warming, as well as an updated assessment of equilibrium climate sensitivity . Changes relative to 1850-1900 based on 20-year averaging periods are calculated by adding 0.85°C to simulated changes relative to 1995-2014. Very likely ranges are shown for SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0 . Assessments were carried out at the global scale for , , and . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
Examples of regional key risks. Risks identified are of at least medium confidence level Key risks are identified based on the magnitude of adverse consequences ; likelihood of adverse consequences; temporal characteristics of the risk; and ability to respond to the risk, e.g., by adaptation. The full set of 127 assessed global and regional key risks is given in SMTS.4 and SM16.7. Diagrams are provided for some risks. The development of synthetic diagrams for Small Islands, Asia and Central and South America were limited by the availability of adequately downscaled climate projections, with uncertainty in the direction of change, the diversity of climatologies and socio-economic contexts across countries within a region, and the resulting low number of impact and risk projections for different warming levels. Absence of risks diagrams does not imply absence of risks within a region. , SM16.7, Figure CCP4.8, Figure CCP4.10, Figure CCP6.5, WGI AR6 2, WGI AR6 SPM A.1.2, WGI AR6 Figure SPM.8) | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
The Reasons for Concem framework communicates scientific understanding about accrual of risk for five broad categories. Diagrams are shown for each RFC, assuming low to no adaptation . However, the transition to a very high risk level has an emphasis on irreversibility and adaptation limits. Undetectable risk level indicates no associated impacts are detectable and attributable to climate change; moderate risk indicates associated impacts are both detectable and attributable to climate change with at least medium confidence, also accounting for the other specific criteria for key risks; high risk indicates severe and widespread impacts that are judged to be high on one or more criteria for assessing key risks, and very high risk level indicates very high risk of severe impacts and the presence of significant irreversibility or the persistence of climate-related hazards, combined with limited ability to adapt due to the nature of the hazard or impacts/risks. The horizontal line denotes the present global warming of 1.09°C which is used to separate the observed, past impacts below the line from the future projected risks above it. RFC 1: Unique and threatened systems: ecological and human systems that have restricted geographic ranges constrained by climate-related conditions and have high endemism or other distinctive properties. Examples include coral reefs, the Arctic and its Indigenous Peoples, mountain glaciers and biodiversity hotspots. RFC2: Extreme weather events: risks/impacts to human health, livelihoods, assets and ecosystems from extreme weather events such as heatwaves, heavy rain, drought and associated wildfires, and coastal flooding. RFC3: Distribution of impacts: risks/impacts that disproportionately affect particular groups due to uneven distribution of physical climate change hazards, exposure or vulnerability. RFC: Global aggregate impacts: impacts to socio-ecological systems that can be aggregated globally into a single metric, such as monetary damages, lives affected, species last or ecosystem degradation at a global scale. RFCS: Large-scale singular events: relatively large, abrupt and sometimes irreversible changes in systems caused by global warming, such as ice sheet disintegration or thermohaline circulation slowing. Assessment methods are described in SM16.6 and are identical to ARS, but are enhanced by a structured approach to improve robustness and facilitate comparison between ARS and AR6. Risks for terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and ocean ecosystems. For and , diagrams shown for each risk assume low to no adaptation. The transition to a very high risk level has an emphasis on irreversibility and adaptation limits. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.4.3 Projected changes in the water cycle will impact various ecosystem services . By 2050, environmentally critical streamflow is projected to be affected in 42% to 79% of the world's watersheds, causing negative impacts on freshwater ecosystems . Increased wildfire, combined with soil erosion due to deforestation, could degrade water supplies . Projected climate-driven water cycle changes, including increases in evapotranspiration, altered spatial patterns and amount of precipitation, and associated changes in groundwater recharge, runoff and streamflow, will impact terrestrial, freshwater, estuarine and coastal ecosystems and the transport of materials through the biogeochemical cycles, impacting humans and societal well-being . In Africa, 55-68% of commercially harvested inland fish species are vulnerable to extinction under 2.5°C global warming by 2071-2100. In Central and South America, disruption in water flows will significantly degrade ecosystems such as high-elevation wetlands . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.4.2 Projected cryosphere changes will negatively impact water security and livelihoods, with higher severity of risks at higher levels of global warming . Glacier mass loss, permafrost thaw and decline in snow cover are projected to continue beyond the 21st century . Many lowelevation and small glaciers around the world will lose most of their total mass at 1.5°C warming . Glaciers are likely to disappear by nearly 50% in High Mountain Asia and about 70% in Central and Western Asia by the end of the 21st century under the medium warming scenario. Glacier lake outburst flood will threaten the security of local and downstream communities in High Mountain Asia . By 2100, annual runoff in one-third of the 56 large-scale glacierised catchments are projected to decline by over 10%, with the most significant reductions in Central Asia and the Andes . Cryosphere related changes in floods, landslides and water availability have the potential to lead to severe consequences for people, infrastructure and the economy in most mountain regions . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.4.4 Drought risks and related societal damage are projected to increase with every degree of warming . Under RCP6.0 and SSP2, the population that is projected to be exposed to extreme to exceptional low total water storage will reach up to 7% over the 21st century . Under RCP8.5, aridity zones could expand by one-quarter of the 1990 area by 2100. In southern Europe, more than a third of the population will be exposed to water scarcity at 2°C, and the risk doubles at 3°C, with significant economic losses . Over large | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.3.5 Climate change will further increase pressures on those terrestrial ecosystem services which support global food production systems . Climate change will reduce the effectiveness of pollination as species are lost from certain areas, or the coordination of pollinator activity and flower receptiveness will be disrupted in some regions . Greenhouse gas emissions will negatively impact air, soil and water quality, exacerbating direct climatic impacts on yields . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.3.6 Climate change will compromise food safety through multiple pathways . Higher temperatures and humidity will expand the risk of aflatoxin contamination into higherlatitude regions . More frequent and intense flood events and increased melting of snow and ice will increase food contamination . Aquatic food safety will decrease through increased detrimental impacts from harmful algal blooms and human exposure to elevated bioaccumulation of persistent organic pollutants and methylmercury . These negative food safety impacts will be greater without adaptation and fall disproportionately on low-income countries and communities with high consumption of seafood, including coastal Indigenous communities . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.5 Coastal risks will increase by at least one order of magnitude over the 21st century due to committed sea level rise impacting ecosystems, people, livelihoods, infrastructure, food security, cultural and natural heritage and climate mitigation at the coast. Concentrated in cities and settlements by the sea, these risks are already being faced and will accelerate beyond 2050 and continue to escalate beyond 2100, even if warming stops. Historically rare extreme sea level events will occur annually by 2100, compounding these risks . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
areas of northern South America, the Mediterranean, western China and high latitudes in North America and Eurasia, the frequency of extreme agricultural droughts is projected to be 150% to 200% more likely at 2°C and over 200% more likely at 4°C . Above 2°C, the frequency and duration of meteorological drought are projected to double over North Africa, the western Sahel and southern Africa . More droughts and extreme fire weather are projected in southern and eastern Australia and over most of New Zealand . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.4.5 Flood risks and societal damages are projected to increase with every increment of global warming . The projected increase in precipitation intensity will increase rain-generated local flooding . Direct flood damage is projected to increase by four to five times at 4°C compared to 1.5°C . A higher sea level with storm surge further inland may create more severe coastal flooding I . Projected intensifications of the hydrological cycle pose increasing risks, including potential doubling of flood risk and 1.2-to 1.8-fold increase in GDP loss due to flooding between 1.5°C and f 3°C . Projected increase in heavy rainfall events at all levels of warming in many regions in Africa will cause increasing t exposure to pluvial and riverine flooding , with expected human displacement increasing 200% for 1.6 °C and 600% for 2.6°C. A 1.5°C increase would result in an increase of 100-200% in the population affected by floods in Colombia, Brazil and Argentina, 300% in Ecuador and 400% in Peru . In Europe, above 3°C global warming level, the costs of damage and people affected by precipitation and river flooding may double. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.5.3 Under all climate and socioeconomic scenarios, lowlying cities and settlements, small islands, Arctic communities, remote Indigenous communities and deltaic communities will face severe disruption by 2100, and as early as 2050 in many cases . Large numbers of people are at risk in Asia, Africa and Europe, while a large relative increase in risk occurs in small island states and in parts of North and South America and Australasia. Risks to water security will occur as early as 2030 or earlier for the small island states and Torres Strait Islands in Australia and remote Maori communities in New Zealand. By 2100, compound and cascading risks will result in the submergence of some low-lying island states and damage to coastal heritage, livelihoods and infrastructure . Sea level rise, combined with altered rainfall patterns, will increase coastal inundation and | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.4.6 Projected water cycle changes will impact agriculture, energy production and urban water uses . Agricultural water use will increase globally as a consequence of population increase and dietary changes, as well as increased water requirements due to climate change . Groundwater recharge in some semiarid regions are projected to increase, but worldwide depletion of non-renewable groundwater storage will continue due to increased groundwater demand . Increased floods and droughts, together with heat stress, will have an adverse impact on food availability and prices, resulting in increased undernourishment in South and Southeast Asia . In the Mediterranean and parts of Europe, potential reductions of hydropower of up to 40% are projected under 3°C warming, while declines below 10% and 5% are projected under 2°C and 1.5°C warming levels respectively. An additional 350 and 410 million people living in urban areas will be exposed to water scarcity from severe droughts at 1.5°C and 2°C respectively. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.5.1 Under all emissions scenarios, coastal wetlands will likely face high risk from sea level rise in the mid-term , with substantial losses before 2100. These risks will be compounded where coastal development prevents upshore migration of habitats or where terrestrial sediment inputs are limited and tidal ranges are small . Loss of these habitats disrupts associated ecosystem services, including wave-energy attenuation, habitat provision for biodiversity, climate mitigation and food and fuel resources . Near- to mid-term sea level rise will also exacerbate coastal erosion and submersion and the salinisation of coastal groundwater, expanding the loss of many different coastal habitats, ecosystems and ecosystem services . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
associated development to sea level rise is high, increasing risks, and is concentrated in and around coastal cities and settlements . High population growth and urbanisation in low-lying coastal zones will be the major driver of increasing exposure to sea level rise in the coming decades . By 2030, 108- 116 million people will be exposed to sea level rise in Africa , increasing to 190-245 million by 2060 . By 2050, more than a billion people located in low-lying fcities and settlements will be at risk from coast-specific climate hazards, influenced by coastal geomorphology, geographical location and adaptation action . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.6.3 Increased heat-related mortality and morbidity are projected globally . Globally, temperaturerelated mortality is projected to increase under RCP4.5 to RCP8.5, even with adaptation . Tens of thousands of additional deaths are projected under moderate and high global warming scenarios, particularly in north, west and central Africa, with up to year-round exceedance of deadly heat thresholds by 2100 . In Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane, urban heat-related excess deaths are projected to increase by about 300 yr¹ to 600 yr¹ during 2031-2080 relative to 142 yr during 1971-2020 . In Europe the number of people at high risk of mortality | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.6 Climate change will increase the number of deaths and the global burden of non-communicable and infectious diseases . Over nine million climate-related deaths per year are projected by the end of the century, under a high emissions scenario and accounting for population growth, economic development and adaptation. Health risks will be differentiated by gender, age, income, social status and region . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
The population at risk in coastal cities and settlements from a 100- year coastal flood increases by approx. 20% if the global mean sea level rises by 0.15 m relative to current levels, doubles at 0.75 m and triples at 1.4 m, assuming present-day population and protection height . For example, in Europe, coastal flood damage is projected to increase at least 10-fold by the end of the 21st century, and even more or earlier with current adaptation and mitigation . By 2100, 158-510 million people and USD7,919-12,739 billion in assets are projected to be exposed to the 1-in-100-year coastal floodplain under RCP4.5, and 176-880 million people and USD8,813-14,178 billion assets under RCP8.5 . Projected impacts reach far beyond coastal cities and settlements, with damage to ports potentially severely compromising global supply chains and maritime trade, with local to global geopolitical and economic ramifications . Compounded and cascading climate risks, such as tropical cyclone storm surge damage to coastal infrastructure and supply chain networks, are expected to increase . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.6.1 Future global burdens of climate-sensitive diseases and conditions will depend on emissions and adaptation pathways and the efficacy of public health systems, interventions and sanitation . Projections under mid-range emissions scenarios show an additional 250,000 deaths per year by 2050 due to malaria, heat, childhood undernutrition and diarrhoea . Overall, more than half of this excess mortality is projected for Africa. Mortality and morbidity will continue to escalate as exposures become more frequent and intense, putting additional strain on health and economic systems , reducing capacity to respond, particularly in resourcepoor regions. Vulnerable groups include young children , the elderly , pregnant women, Indigenous Peoples, those with pre-existing diseases, physical labourers and those in low socioeconomic conditions . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.6.2 Climate change is expected to have adverse impacts on well-being and to further threaten mental health . Children and adolescents, particularly girls, as well as people with existing mental, physical and medical challenges, are particularly at risk . Mental health impacts are expected to arise from exposure to extreme weather events, displacement, migration, famine, malnutrition, degradation or destruction of health and social care systems, climate-related economic and social losses and anxiety and distress associated with worry about climate change . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
confidence). Changes in wave dimate superimposed on sea level rise will significantly increase coastal flooding and erosion of low-lying coastal and reef islands . The frequency, extent and duration of coastal flooding will significantly increase from 2050 , unless coastal and marine ecosystems are able to naturally adapt to sea level rise through vertical growth and landward migration . Permafrost thaw, sea level rise, and reduced sea ice protection is projected to damage or cause loss to many cultural heritage sites, settlements and livelihoods across the Arctic . Deltaic cities and settlements characterised by high inequality and informal settlements are especially vulnerable . Although risks are distributed across cities and settlements at all levels of economic development, wealthier and more urbanised coastal cities and settlements are more likely to be able to limit impacts and risk in the near- to mid-term through infrastructure resilience and coastal protection interventions, with highly uncertain prospects in many of these locations beyond 2100 . Prospects for enabling and contributing to climate resilient development thus vary markedly within and between coastal cities and settlements . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.6.5 Vector-borne disease transmission is projected to expand to higher latitudes and altitudes, and the duration of seasonal transmission risk is projected to increase , with the greatest risk under high emissions scenarios. Dengue vector ranges will increase in North America, Asia, Europe and sub-Saharan Africa under RCP6 and RCP8.5, potentially putting another 2.25 billion people at risk . Higher incidence rates of Lyme disease are projected for the Northern Hemisphere . Climate change is projected to increase malaria's geographic distribution in endemic areas of sub-Saharan and southern Africa, Asia and South America , exposing tens of millions more people to malaria, predominately in east and southern Africa, and up to hundreds of millions more exposed under RCP8.5 . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
the risk of food-borne disease outbreaks, including Salmonella and Campylobacter infections . Warming supports the growth and geographical expansion of toxigenic fungi in crops and potentially toxic marine and freshwater algae . Food safety risks in fisheries and aquaculture are projected through harmful algal blooms , pathogens , and human exposure to elevated bioaccumulation of persistent organic pollutants and mercury . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
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