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TS.D.10.2 Access to and mobilising adequate financial resources for vulnerable regions is an important catalysing factor for timely climate resilient development and climate risk management . Total tracked climate finance has increased from USD364 billion yr¹ in 2010/2011 to USD579 billion in 2017/2018, with only 4-8% of this allocated to adaptation and more than 90% of adaptation finance coming from public sources. Developed-country climate finance leveraged for developing countries for mitigation and adaptation has shown an upward trend, but it has fallen short of the USD100 billion yr¹ 2020 target of the Copenhagen commitment, and less than 20% has been for adaptation. Estimated global and regional costs of adaptation vary widely due to differences in assumptions, methods and data; the majority of more recent estimates are higher than the figures presented in ARS. Median estimated costs for developing country adaptation from recent studies are USD127 and USD295 billion yr for 2030 and 2050 respectively. Examples of estimated regional adaptation include USD50 billion yr¹ in Africa for 1.5°C of warming in 2050, increasing to USD100-350 billion yr¹ for 4°C of global warming towards the end of the century. Increasing public and private finance flows by billions of dollars per year, increasing direct access to multilateral funds, strengthening project pipeline development and shifting finance from readiness activities to project implementation can enhance implementation of climate change adaptation and are fundamental to achieving climate justice for highly vulnerable countries, including small island states and African countries. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.D.10.5 Forward-looking adaptive planning and iterative risk management can avoid path dependencies and maladaptation and ensure timely action . Approaches that break down adaptation into manageable steps over time and use pathway analyses to determine low-regret actions for the near-term and longterm options are a useful starting point for adaptation . Decision frameworks that consider multiple objectives, scenarios, time frames and strategies can avoid privileging some views over others and help multiple actors to identify resilient and equitable solutions to complex, deeply uncertain challenges and explicitly deal with trade-offs. Considering socioeconomic developments and climatic changes beyond 2100 is particularly relevant for long-lived investment decisions such as new harbours, airports, urban expansions and flood defences to avoid lock-ins . Monitoring climate change, socioeconomic developments and progress on implementation is critical for learning about adaptation success and maladaptation and to assess whether, when and what further actions are needed for informing iterative risk management . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
Many forms of climate adaptation are likely to be more effective, efficient and equitable when organised collectively and with multiple objectives. Using different assessment, modelling, monitoring and evaluation approaches can facilitate understanding of the societal implications of trade-offs. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.D.10.3 Decision-support tools and decision-analytic methods are available and being applied for climate adaptation and climate risk management in different contexts . Integrated adaptation frameworks and decision-support tools that anticipate multi-dimensional risks and accommodate community values are more effective than those with a narrow focus on single risks . Approaches that integrate the adaptation needs of multiple sectors such as disaster management, account for different risk perceptions and integrate multiple knowledge systems are better suited to addressing key risks . Reliable climate services, monitoring and early warning systems are the most commonly used strategies for managing the key risks, complementing long-term investments in risk reduction . While these strategies are applicable to society as a whole, they need to be tailored to specific contexts in order to be adopted effectively. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.D.10.6 Enhancing climate change literacy on impacts and possible solutions is necessary to ensure widespread, sustained implementation of adaptation by state and non-state actors . Ways to enhance climate literacy and foster behavioural change include access to education and information, programmes involving the performing and visual arts, storytelling, training workshops, participatory three-dimensional modelling, climate services and community-based monitoring. The use of Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge represents and codifies actual experiences and autonomous adaptations and facilitates awareness, clarifies risk perception and enhances the understanding and adoption of solutions. Narratives can effectively communicate climate information and link this to societal goals and the actions needed to achieve them . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.D.11.4 Adaptation can require system-wide transformation of ways of knowing, acting and lesson-drawing to rebalance the relation between human and nature . Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge, ecosystem-based adaptation and community-based adaptation are often found together in effective adaptation strategies and actions and together can generate transformative sustainable changes, but they need the resources, legal basis and an inclusive decision process to be most effective . Governance measures that transparently accommodate science and Indigenous knowledge can act as enablers of such coproduction. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.D.11.1 A sub-set of adaptation options has been implemented that cuts across sectors to enable sector-specific adaptation responses. These options, such as disaster risk management, climate services and risk sharing, increase the feasibility and effectiveness of other options by expanding the solution space available . For example, carefully designed and implemented disaster risk management and climate services can increase the feasibility and effectiveness of adaptation responses to improve agricultural practices, income diversification, urban and critical services and infrastructure planning . Risk insurance can be a feasible tool to adapt to transfer climate risks and support sustainable development . They can reduce both vulnerability and exposure, support post-disaster recovery and reduce financial burden on governments, households and business. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.D.11 Deep-rooted transformational adaptation opens new options for adapting to the impacts and risks of climate change by changing the fundamental attributes of a system, including altered goals or values and addressing the root causes of vulnerability. AR6 focuses on five system transitions to a just and climate resilient future: societal, energy. land and ocean ecosystems, urban and infrastructure, and industrial. These transitions call for transformations in existing social and social-technological and environmental systems that include shifts in most aspects of society. Managing transition risk is a critical element of transforming society, increasingly acknowledging the importance of transparent, informed and inclusive decision-making and evaluation, including a role for Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.D.11.2 Transformations for energy include the options of efficient water use and water management, infrastructure resilience and reliable power systems, including the use of intermittent renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind energy, with the use of storage . These options are not sufficient for the far-reaching transformations required in the energy sector, which tend to focus on technological transitions from a fossil-based to a renewable energy regime. A resilient power infrastructure is considered for energy generation, transmission and distribution systems. Distributed generation utilities, such as microgrids, are increasingly being considered, with growing evidence of their role in reducing vulnerability, especially within underserved populations . Infrastructure resilience and reliable power are particularly important in reducing risk in peri-urban and rural areas when they are supported by distributed generation of renewable energy by isolated systems . The option for a resilient power infrastructure is considered for all types of power generation sources and transmission and distribution systems. Efficient water use and water management especially in hydropower and combined cycle power plants in drought-prone areas have a high feasibility with multiple co-benefits (medium | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.D.11.5 Factors motivating transformative adaptation actions include risk perception, perceived efficacy, sociocultural norms and beliefs, previous experiences of impacts, levels of education and awareness . Risk responsibilities across the globe are unclear and unevenly defined . In the face of climate change, assigning risk responsibilities facilitates upgrading and supporting adaptation efforts . There are at least two contrasting approaches for pursuing deliberate transformation: one seeking rapid, system-wide change and the other a collection of incremental actions that together catalyse desired system changes . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.D.11.3 Adaptation options that are feasible and effective to the 3.4 billion people living in rural areas around the world and who are especially vulnerable to climate change, include the provision of basic services, livelihood diversification and strengthening of food systems . The vulnerability of rural areas to climate risks increases due to the long distances to urban centres and the lack of or deficient critical infrastructure such as roads, electricity and water. Providing critical infrastructure, including through distributed generation power systems through renewable energy, has provided many co-benefits . Biodiversity management strategies have social co-benefits, including improved community health, recreational activities and ecotourism, which are co-produced by harnessing ecological and social capital to promote resilient ecosystems with high connectivity and functional diversity. Strengthening local and regional food systems through strategies such as collective trademarks, participatory guarantee systems and city-rural links build rural livelihoods, resilience and selfreliance . Livelihood diversification is a key coping and adaptive strategy to climatic and non-climatic risks. There is high evidence that diversifying livelihoods improves incomes and reduces socioeconomic vulnerability, but feasibility changes depending on livelihood type, opportunities and local context Key barriers to livelihood diversification include sociocultural and institutional barriers as well as inadequate resources and livelihood opportunities that hinder the full adaptive possibilities of existing livelihood diversification practices . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.1.4 For urban and infrastructure system transitions, there is medium confidence for sustainable land use and urban planning. There is high confidence in the economic and ecological feasibility of green infrastructure and ecosystem services, as well as sustainable urban water management, once institutional barriers in the form of limited social and political acceptability are overcome. Social safety nets, disaster risk management and climate services and population health and health systems are considered overarching adaptation options due to their applicability across all system transitions. There is medium to high confidence in the high feasibility of disaster risk management and the use of demand-driven and contextspecific climate services as well as the socioeconomic feasibility of social safety nets. Improving health systems through enhancing access to medical services and developing or strengthening surveillance systems can have high feasibility when there is a robust institutional and regulatory framework . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.1.3 System transitions are highly feasible. For energy system transitions, there is medium confidence in the high feasibility of resilient infrastructure and efficient water use for power plants and high confidence in the synergies of this option with mitigation. For coastal ecosystem transitions, there is medium to high confidence that ecosystem conservation and biodiversity management are increasing adaptive and ecological capacity with socioeconomic co-benefits and positive synergies with carbon sequestration. However, opportunity costs can be a barrier. For land ecosystem transitions, there is high confidence in the role of agroforestry to increase ecological and adaptive capacity, once economic and cultural barriers and potential land use change trade-offs are overcome. There is high confidence in improved cropland management and its economic feasibility due to improved productivity. For efficient livestock systems, there is medium confidence in the high technological and ecological feasibility. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.1.2 System transitions can enable climate resilient development when accompanied by appropriate enabling conditions and inclusive arenas of engagement . Five system transitions are considered: energy, industry, urban and infrastructure, land and ecosystems, and society. Advancing climate resilient development in specific contexts may necessitate simultaneous progress on all five transitions. Collectively, these system transitions can widen the solution space and accelerate and deepen the implementation of sustainable development, adaptation and mitigation actions by equipping actors and decision makers with more effective options . For example, urban ecological infrastructure linked to an appropriate land use mix, street connectivity, open and green spaces and job-housing proximity provides adaptation and mitigation benefits that can aid urban transformation . These system transitions are necessary precursors for more fundamental climate and sustainable development transformations but can simultaneously be outcomes of transformative actions. Enhancing equity and agency are cross-cutting considerations for all five transitions. Such transitions can generate benefits across different sectors and regions, provided | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.1.5 There are multiple possible pathways by which communities, nations and the world can pursue climate resilient development. Moving towards different pathways involves confronting complex synergies and trade-offs between development pathways and the options, contested values and interests that underpin climate mitigation and adaptation choices . Climate resilient development pathways are trajectories for the pursuit of climate resilient development and navigating its complexities. Different actors, the private sector and civil society, influenced by science, local and Indigenous knowledges, and the media, are both active and passive in designing and navigating climate resilient development pathways. Increasing levels of warming may narrow the options and choices available for local survival and sustainable development for human societies and ecosystems. Limiting warming to Paris Agreement goals will reduce the magnitude of climate risks to which people, places, the economy and ecosystems will have to adapt. Reconciling the costs, benefits and trade-offs associated with | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.1 Climate resilient development implements greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation options to support sustainable development. With accelerated warming and the intensification of cascading impacts and compounded risks above 1.5°C warming, there is a sharply increasing demand for adaptation and climate resilient development linked to achieving SDGs and equity and balancing societal priorities. There is only limited opportunity to widen the remaining solution space and take advantage of many potentially effective, yet unimplemented, options for reducing society and ecosystem vulnerability . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.1.1 Prevailing development pathways do not advance climate resilient development . Societal choices in the near term will determine future pathways. There is no single pathway or climate that represents climate resilient development for all nations, actors or scales, as well as globally, and many solutions will emerge locally and regionally. Global trends including rising income inequality, urbanisation, migration, continued growth in greenhouse gas emissions, land use change, human displacement and reversals of long-term trends toward increased life expectancy run counter to the SDGs as well as efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to a changing climate. With progressive climate change, enabling conditions will diminish, and opportunities for successfully transitioning systems for both mitigation and adaptation will become more limited . Investments in economic recovery from COVID-19 offer opportunities to promote climate resilient development . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.2 Climate action and sustainable development are interdependent. Pursued in an inclusive and integrated manner, they enhance human and ecological well-being. Sustainable development is fundamental to capacity for climate action, including reductions in greenhouse gas emissions as well as enhancing social and ecological resilience to climate change. Increasing social and gender equity is an integral part of the technological and social transitions and transformation towards climate resilient development. Such transitions in societal systems reduce poverty and enable greater equity and agency in decision-making. They often require rights-based approaches to protect the livelihoods, priorities and survival of marginalised groups including Indigenous Peoples, women, ethnic minorities and children . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.1.6. Economic sectors and global regions are exposed to different opportunities and challenges in facilitating climate resilient development, suggesting adaptation and mitigation options should be aligned to local and regional context and development pathways . Given their current state of development, some regions may prioritise poverty and inequality reduction and economic development over the near term as a means of building capacity for climate action and low-carbon development over the long term. In contrast, developed economies with mature economies and high levels of resilience may prioritise climate action to transition their energy systems and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Some interventions may be robust in that they are relevant to a broad range of potential development trajectories and could be deployed in a flexible manner. However, other types of interventions, such as those that are dependent upon emerging technologies, may require a specific set of enhanced enabling conditions or factors, including infrastructure, supply chains, international cooperation and education and training that currently limit their implementation to certain settings. Notwithstanding national and regional differences, development practices that are aligned to people, prosperity, partnerships, peace and the planet as defined in Agenda 2030 could enable more climate resilient development. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.2.2 A range of policies, practices and enabling conditions accelerate efforts towards climate resilient development. Diverse actors including youth, women, Indigenous communities and business leaders are the agents of societal changes and transformations that enable climate resilient development . Greater attention to which actors benefit, fail to benefit or are directly harmed by different types of interventions could significantly advance efforts to pursue climate resilient development. . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.2.3 Climate adaptation actions are grounded in local realities so understanding links with SDG 5 on gender equality ensures that adaptive actions do not worsen existing gender and other inequities within society . Adaptation actions do not automatically have positive outcomes for gender equality. Understanding the positive and negative links of adaptation actions with gender equality goals is important to ensure that adaptive actions do not exacerbate existing gender-based and other social inequalities. Efforts are needed to change unequal power dynamics and to foster inclusive decision-making for climate adaptation to have a positive impact for gender equality . There are very few examples of successful integration of gender and other social inequities in climate policies to address climate change vulnerabilities and questions of social justice . Yet inequities in climate change literacy compounds women's vulnerability to climate change through its negative effect on climate risk perception | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.1.7 Pursuing climate resilient development involves considering a broader range of sustainable development priorities, policies and practices, as well as enabling societal choices to accelerate and deepen their implementation . Scientific assessments of climate change have traditionally framed solutions around the implementation of specific adaptation and mitigation options as mechanisms for reducing climate-related risks. They have given less attention to a fuller set of societal priorities and the role of non-climate policies, social norms, lifestyles, power relationships and worldviews in enabling climate action and sustainable development. Because climate resilient development involves different actors pursuing plural development trajectories in diverse contexts, the pursuit of solutions that are equitable for all requires opening the space for engagement and action to a diversity of people, institutions, forms of knowledge and worldviews. Through inclusive modes of engagement that enhance knowledge sharing and realise the productive potential of diverse perspectives and worldviews, societies could alter institutional structures and arrangements, development processes, choices and actions that have precipitated dangerous climate change, constrained the achievement of SDGs and thus limited pathways to achieving climate resilient development. The current decade is critical to charting climate resilient development pathways that catalyse the transformation of prevailing development practices and offer the greatest promise and potential for human well-being and planetary health . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.2.1 Conditions enabling rapid increases and innovative climate responses include experience of extreme events or climate education influencing perceptions of urgency, together with the actions of catalysing agents such as social movements and technological entrepreneurs. People who have experienced climate shocks are more likely to implement risk management measures . Autonomous adaptation is very common in locations where people are more exposed to extreme events and have the resources and the temporal capacity to act on their own, for example in remote communities . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.2.7 Enabling environments for adaptation that support equitable sustainable development are essential for those with climate-sensitive livelihoods who are often least able to adapt and influence decision-making . Enabling environments share common governance characteristics, including the meaningful involvement of multiple actors and assets, alongside multiple centres of power at different levels that are well integrated, vertically and horizontally . Enabling conditions hamess synergies, address moral and ethical choices and divergent values and interests and support just approaches to livelihood transitions that do not undermine human well-being . Climate solutions for health, well-being and the changing | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.2.6 Procedural and distributional justice and flexible institutions facilitate successful adaptation and minimise maladaptive outcomes. Reorienting existing institutions to become more flexible and inclusive is key to building adaptive governance systems that are equipped to take long-term decisions . Enhancing climate governance, institutional capacity and differentiated policies and regulation from the local to global scale enables and accelerates climate resilient development. Transforming financial systems to deliver the SDGs, while accelerating system transitions and addressing physical and transition risks, is a precondition. Changes in lifestyles, human behaviour and preferences can have a significant impact on adaptation implementation, demand and hence emissions and decision-making around climate action . Additionally, the use of customary and traditional justice systems, such as those of Indigenous peoples, can enhance the equity of adaptation policy processes . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
Panel Appropriate choices for fastering climate resilient development pathways involve considering the portfolio of risks, the potential for adaptations to satisfactorily reduce risks and not exacerbate others, the potential for mitigation measures to interact with risks and adaptations within and across sectors, and how and whether adaptations can be enabled. The graphic table illustrates a possible assembly of these considerations for four sectors in the region Africa, showing top panel: the potential for cascading and compounding effects amongst risks within sectors, between sectors and across boundaries and the possible constraints for adaptation and the adaptation gap to be filled ; second panel: the potential for adaptations to reduce risks, including their feasibility , their interaction with other adaptations addressing the same or interacting risks, and whether they are limited by global warming level ; third panel the mitigation measures grouped into categories that might interact with risks and adaptations, including showing their importance and whether the interaction would be potentially positive, negative or a mixture of bath ; bottom pane! Enabling conditions for sectors grouped into categories of enablers common across many sectors, showing their importance and how they may be suitable across a number of sectors, along with an assessment of the gap in the enabler for satisfactory adaptation . Confidence levels on each cell are indicated as-low confidence, **-medium confidence,***high confidence. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.2.4 Gender-sensitive, equity- and justice-based adaptation approaches, integration of Indigenous knowledge systems within legal frameworks and the promotion of Indigenous land tenure rights reduce vulnerability and increase resilience . Integrating adaptation into social protection programmes can build long-term resilience to climate change . Nevertheless, social protection programmes can increase resilience to climate related shocks, even if they do not specifically address climate risks . Climate adaptation actions are grounded in local realities so understanding links with SDGs is important to ensure that adaptive actions do not worsen existing gender and other inequities within society, leading to maladaptation practices . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.2.5 Water can be either an enabler or a hindrance to successful adaptation and sustainable development. Central to equity issues about water is that it remains a public good . Overcoming institutional and financial constraints , including path dependency, is among the most important requirements enabling effective adaptation in the water sector . Water-related challenges, despite reported adaptation efforts, indicate limits of adaptation in the absence of water neutral mitigation action . For some regions, such as small island states, coastal areas and mountainous regions, water availability already has the potential to become a hard limit on adaptation . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
Panel Higher climate resilient development is characterised by outcomes that advance sustainable development for all Climate resilient development is progressively harder to achieve with global warming levels beyond 1.5°C. Inadequate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030 reduces climate resilient development prospects. There is a namowing window of opportunity to shift pathways towards more climate resilient development futures as reflected by the adaptation limits and increasing climate risks, considering the remaining carbon budgets. . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.3.2 Some communities/regions are resilient with strong social safety nets and social capital that support responses and actions already occurring, but there is limited information on the effectiveness of adaptation practices and the scale of action needed . Among island communities, greater insights into which drivers weaken local communities and Indigenous Peoples' resilience, together with recognition of the sociopolitical contexts within which communities operate, can assist in identifying opportunities at all scales to enhance climate adaptation and enable action towards climate resilient development pathways . Adaptation responses to climatedriven impacts in mountain regions vary significantly in terms of goals and priorities, scope, depth and speed of implementation, governance and modes of decision-making and the extent of financial and other resources to implement them . Adaptation in Africa has multiple benefits, and most assessed adaptation options have medium effectiveness at reducing risks for present-day global warming, but their efficacy at future warming levels is largely unknown . In Australia and New Zealand, a range of incremental and transformative adaptation options and pathways is available as long as enablers are in place to implement them . Several enablers can be used to improve adaptation outcomes and to build resilience , including better governance and legal reforms; improving justice, equity and gender considerations; building human resource capacity, increased finance and risk transfer mechanisms; education and awareness programmes; increased access to climate information; adequately downscaled climate data; inclusion of Indigenous knowledge; and integrating cultural resources into decision-making . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.3 A focus on climate risk alone does not enable effective climate resilience . The integration of consideration of non-climatic drivers into adaptation pathways can reduce climate impacts across food systems, human settlements, health, water, economies and livelihoods . Strengthened health, education and basic social services are vital for improving population well-being and supporting climate resilient development . The use of climate-smart agriculture technologies that strengthen synergies among productivity and mitigation is growing as an important adaptation strategy . Pertinent information for farmers provided by climate information services is helping them to understand the role of climate compared with other drivers in perceived productivity changes . Index insurance builds resilience and contributes to adaptation both by protecting farmers' assets in the face of major climate shocks, by promoting access to credit and by adopting improved farm technologies and practices . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.2.8 Prevailing ideologies or worldviews, institutions and sociopolitical relations influence development trajectories by framing climate narratives and possibilities for action . The interplay between worldviews and ethics, sociopolitical relations, institutions and human behaviour influence public engagement by individuals and communities. These open up opportunities for meaningful engagement and co-production of pathways towards dimate resilient development. The urgency of climate action is a potential enabler of climate decision-making . Perceptions of urgency encourage communities, businesses and leaders to undertake climate adaptation and mitigation measures more quickly and to prioritise climate action . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.3.3 Identifying and advancing synergies and co-benefits of mitigation, adaptation and SDGs has occurred slowly and unevenly . One area of sustained effort is community-based adaptation planning actions that have potential to be better integrated to enhance well-being and create synergies with the SDG ambitions of leaving no one behind . Complex trade-offs and gaps in alignment between mitigation and adaptation over scale and across policy areas where sustainable development is hindered or reversed also remain . Globally, decisions about key infrastructure systems and urban expansion drive risk creation and potential action on climate change . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
the resilience of the ecosystem as a whole, including its capacity to persist through climate change and recover from extreme events . Species extinction levels that are more than 1000 times natural background rates as a result of anthropogenic pressures, and climate change will increasingly exacerbate this . Conservation efforts are more effective when integrated into local spatial plans inclusive of adaptation responses, alongside sustainable food and fiber production systems . Strong inclusive governance systems and participatory planning processes that support equitable and effective adaptation outcomes, are gender sensitive and reduce intergroup conflict are required for enhanced ecosystem protection and restoration . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.4.2 Solutions that support biodiversity and the integrity of ecosystems deliver essential co-benefits for people including livelihoods, food and water security and human health and wellbeing . Limiting warming to 2°C and protecting 30% of high-biodiversity regions in Africa, Asia and Latin America is estimated to reduce the risk of species extinctions by half . Meeting the increasing needs of the human population for food and fibre production requires transformation in management regimes to recognise dependencies on local healthy ecosystems, with greater sustainability, including through increased use of agroecological farming approaches and adaptation to the changing climate . People with higher levels of contact with nature have been found to be significantly happier, healthier and more satisfied with their lives . Participatory, inclusive governance approaches such as adaptive co-management or community-based planning, which integrate those groups who rely on these ecosystems , support equitable and effective adaptation outcomes . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
knowledge-based adaptation can accelerate effective robust climate resilient development pathways . Indigenous knowledge underpins successful understanding of, responses to and governance of climate change risks . For example, Indigenous knowledge contains resource-use practices and ecosystem stewardship strategies that conserve and enhance both wild and domestic biodiversity, resulting in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and species that are often less degraded in Indigenous managed lands in other lands . Valuing Indigenous knowledge systems is a key component of climate justice . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.3.5 Ecosystem-based adaptation reduces climate risk across sectors, providing social, economic, health and environmental co-benefits . Direct human dependence on ecosystem services, ecosystem health, and ecosystem protection and restoration, conservation agriculture, sustainable land management and integrated catchment management support climate resilience. Inclusion of interdisciplinary scientific information, Indigenous knowledge and practical expertise is essential to effective ecosystem-based adaptation , and there is a large risk of maladaptation where this does not happen . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.4 Maintaining planetary health is essential for human and societal health and a pre-condition for climate resilient development . Effective ecosystem conservation on approximately 30% to 50% of Earth's land, freshwater and ocean areas, including all remaining areas with a high degree of naturalness and ecosystem integrity, will help protect biodiversity, build ecosystem resilience and ensure essential ecosystem services . In addition to this protection, sustainable management of the rest of the planet is also important. The protected area required to maintain ecosystem integrity varies by ecosystem type and region, and their placement will determine the quality and ecological representativeness of the resulting network. Ecosystem services that are under threat from a combination of climate change and other anthropogenic pressures include climate change mitigation, flood-risk management and water supply . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.4.3 Protecting and building the resilience of ecosystems through restoration, in ways which are consistent with sustainable development, are essential for effective climate change mitigation . Degradation and loss of ecosystems is a major cause of greenhouse gas emissions, which is increasingly exacerbated by climate change . Globally, there is a 38% overlap between areas of high carbon storage and high intact biodiversity, but only 12% of that is protected . Addressing this gap will require an approach which takes account of human needs, particularly food security. Tropical rainforests and global peatlands are particularly important carbon stores but are highly threatened by human disturbance, land conversion and fire. Climate resilient development will require strategies for land-based climate change mitigation to be integrated with adaptation, biodiversity and sustainable development objectives; there is good potential for positive synergies, but also the potential for conflict, including with afforestation and bioenergy crops, when these objectives are pursued in isolation . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.4.4 Adaptive management in response to ecosystem change is increasingly necessary, and more so under higher emissions scenarios . Feedback from monitoring and assessments of the changing state of planetary conditions and local ecosystems enables proactive adaptation to manage risks and minimise impacts . Integrated sectoral approaches promoting climate resilience, particularly for addressing the impacts of extreme events, are key to effective climate resilient development . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.4.5 Adaptation cannot prevent all risks to biodiversity and ecosystem services . Adaptation of conservation strategies, by building resilience and planning for unavoidable change, can reduce harm but will not be possible in all systems, for example, fragile ecosystems that reach critical thresholds or tipping points such as coral reefs, some forests, sea ice and permafrost systems. Conservation and restoration will alone be insufficient to protect coral reefs beyond 2030 and to protect mangroves beyond the 2040s . Deep cuts in emissions will be necessary to minimise irreversible loss and damage . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.5 Governance arrangements and practices are presently ineffective to reduce risks, reverse path dependencies and maladaptation and facilitate climate resilient development . Governance for climate resilient development involves diverse societal actors, including the most vulnerable, who can work collectively, drawing upon local and Indigenous knowledges and science, and are supported by strong political will and climate change leadership . Governance practices will work best when they are coordinated within and between multiple scales and levels and sectors, with supporting financial resources, are tailored for local conditions, are gender-responsive and gender-inclusive and are founded upon enduring institutional and social learning capabilities to address the complexity, dynamism, uncertainty and contestation that characterise escalating climate risk . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.5.3 Climate governance will be most effective when it has meaningful and ongoing involvement of all societal actors from local to global levels . Actors, including individuals and households, communities, governments at all levels, private-sector businesses, non-governmental organisations, Indigenous Peoples, religious groups and social movements, at many scales and in many sectors, are adapting already and can take stronger adaptation and mitigation actions. Many forms of adaptation are more effective, more cost-efficient and more equitable when organised inclusively . Greater coordination and engagement across levels of government, business and community serves to move from planning to action and from reactive to proactive adaptation . Inclusion of all societal actors helps to secure credibility, relevance and legitimacy, while fostering commitment and social learning , as well as equity and well-being, and reduces longterm vulnerability across scales . Social movements in many cities, including those led by youth, have heightened public awareness about the need for urgent, inclusive adaptation that can enhance well-being, foster formal and informal cooperation and coherence between different institutions and build new adaptive capacities. City and local governments remain key actors facilitating climate change adaptation in cities and settlements . Private and business investment in key infrastructure, housing construction and insurance can drive adaptive action at scale but can exclude the priorities of the poor . Networked community actions can address neighbourhood-scale improvements and vulnerability at scale . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.5.2 Climate governance arrangements and practices are enabled when they are embedded in societal systems that advance human well-being and planetary health . Collective action and strengthened networked collaboration, more inclusive governance, spatial planning and risk-sensitive infrastructure delivery will contribute to reducing risks . Enablers for climate governance include better practices and legal reforms, improving justice, equity and gender considerations, building human resource capacity, increased finance and risk transfer mechanisms, education and climate change literacy programmes, increased access to climate information, adequately downscaled climate data and embedding Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge as well as integrating cultural resources into decision-making . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.6 Accelerating climate change and trends in exposure and vulnerability underscore the need for rapid action on the range of transformational approaches to expand the future set of effective, feasible and just solutions . Transformation towards climate resilient development is advanced most effectively when actors work in inclusive and enabling ways to reconcile divergent interests, values and worldviews, building on information and knowledge on climate risk and adaptation options derived from different knowledge systems . Taking action now provides the foundation for adaptation to current and future risks, for large-scale mitigation measures and for effective outcomes for both. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.6.1 Large-scale, transformational adaptation necessitates enabling improved approaches to governance and coordination across sectors and jurisdictions to avoid overwhelming current adaptive capacities and to avoid future maladaptive actions . Response options in one sector can become response risks that exacerbate impacts in other sectors. A deliberate shift from primarily technological adaptation strategies to those that additionally incorporate behavioural and institutional changes, adaptation finance, equity and environmental justice and that align policy with global sustainability goals will facilitate transformational adaptation . Application and efficacy testing of climate resilient development, or adaptation pathways, show promise for implementing transformational approaches , including expansion of ecosystem-based adaptation approaches. Climate information services that are demand driven and context specific, combined with climate change literacy, have the potential to improve adaptation responses . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.5.5 Multi-lateral governance efforts can help reconcile contested interests, worldviews and values about how to address climate change . Policy responses and strategies that localise development and expand the adaptation and mobility options of populations exposed to climatic risks can also reduce risks of climate-related conflict and political instability . Formal institutional arrangements for natural resource management can contribute to wider cooperation and peacebuilding . Reducing vulnerability depends on the inclusive engagement of the most vulnerable, is gender-responsive and includes key societal actors from civil society, the private sector and government, with an especially important role played by local government in partnership with local communities. Strong governance and gender-sensitive approaches to natural resource management reduce the risk of intergroup conflict in climate-disrupted areas . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
international legal and policy instruments can support the development and implementation of adaptation and climate risk management and reduce exposure to key risks . Dedicated climate change acts can play a foundational and distinctive role in supporting effective climate governance, and are drivers of subsequent activity in both developing and developed countries . The transboundary nature of many climate change risks and species responses will require transboundary solutions through multi-national or regional governance processes on land and at sea . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.5.6 A range of governance processes, practices and tools that are applicable across a range of temporal and spatial scales are available to support inclusive decision-making for adaptation and risk management in diverse settings . National guidance and laws, policies and regulations, decision tools that can be tailored to local circumstances, innovative engagement processes and collaborative governance can motivate better understanding of climate risk and build climate resilient development . Collaborative networks and institutions, including among local communities and their governing authorities, can help resolve conflicts . A combination of robust climate information, adaptive decision-making under uncertainty, land use planning, public engagement and conflict resolution approaches can help to address governance constraints to prepare for climate risks and build adaptive capacity . New modelling, monitoring and evaluation approaches, alongside disruptive technologies, can help understand the societal implications of trade-offs and build integrated pathways of low-regret anticipatory options, established jointly across sectors in a timely manner, to avoid locked-in development pathways . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.E.6.2 Climate resilient development pathways depend on how contending societal interests, values and worldviews are reconciled through inclusive and participatory interactions between governance actors in these arenas of engagement . These interactions occur in many different arenas that represent the settings, places and spaces in which societal actors interact to influence the nature and course of development. For instance, Agenda 2030 highlights the importance of multi-level adaptation governance, including nonstate actors from civil society and the private sector. This implies the need for wider arenas of engagement for diverse actors to collectively solve problems and to unlock the synergies between adaptation and mitigation and sustainable development . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
event that greenhouse gas mitigation efforts over- or underperform. In addition, decision makers should be aware of the financial risks associated with stranded assets, technology risks and the risks to social equity or ecosystem health. By acknowledging, assessing and managing such risks, actors will have a greater likelihood of achieving success in making development climate resilient. Opportunities exist to promote synergies between sustainable development, adaptation and mitigation, but trade-offs are likely unavoidable, and managing trade-offs and synergies will be important . Climate resilient development risks and opportunities vary by location with uncertainty about global mitigation effort and future climates relevant to local planning . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
appropriate enabling conditions . These enabling conditions include effective governance and information flow, policy frameworks that incentivise sustainability solutions, adequate financing for adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development, institutional capacity, science, technology and innovation, monitoring and evaluation of climate resilient development policies, programmes and practices and international cooperation. Investment in social and technological innovation could generate the knowledge and entrepreneurship needed to catalyse system transitions and their transfer. The implementation of policies that incentivise the deployment of low-carbon technologies and practices within specific sectors, such as energy, buildings and agriculture, could accelerate greenhouse gas mitigation and deployment of climate resilient infrastructure in both urban and rural areas. Civic engagement is an important element of building societal consensus and reducing barriers to action on adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
This supplementary material presents the various aggregated risk assessments applied in the WGII AR6. This includes the key risks identified by all the chapters and the way they can be clustered into Representative Key Risks , with a summary of the severity conditions for these RKRS across climate and development pathways, and the interactions among these risks . The assessment of the five Reasons for Concem , presented in the iconic "burning embers', provides a complementary cross-cutting impact and risk assessment. This approach is described in Section TS.All.3, along with a comparison with the RKRS . The burning embers for the global and cross-cutting RFCs are complemented by similar depictions for specific regional and thematic concerns . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
Regional and sectoral chapters of this report identified 127 key risks that could become severe under particular conditions of climate hazards, exposure and vulnerability . These key risks are assessed to be potentially severe, that is, relevant to the interpretation of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, along levels for warming, exposure/vulnerability and adaptation. Severity has been assessed looking at the magnitude of adverse consequences, the likelihood of adverse consequences, the temporal characteristics of the risk and the ability to respond to the risks. Key risks cover scales from the locall to the global, are especially prominent in particular regions or systems and are particularly large for vulnerable sub-groups, especially low-income populations, and already at-risk ecosystems . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
services; living standards; human health; food security; water security; and peace and mobility . The assessment of these RKRs, which is presented in detail in Chapter 16, has also been used to organise the synthetic assessment of adaptation options in Chapter 17 and is integrated across various sections in the TS and SPM. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
Key risks increase the challenges in achieving global sustainability goals . The greatest challenges will be from risks to water , living standards , coastal socioecological systems and peace and human mobility . The most relevant goals are zero hunger , sustainable cities and communities , life below water , decent work and economic growth , and no poverty . Priority areas for regions are indicated by the intersection of hazards, risks and challenges, where, in the near term, challenges to SDGs indicate | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
Some severe impacts are already occurring and will occur in many more systems before mid-century . Tropical and polar low-lying coastal human communities are experiencing severe impacts today , and abrupt ecological changes resulting from mass population-level mortality are already being observed following climate extreme events. Some systems will experience severe risks before the end of the century , for example critical infrastructure affected by extreme events . Food security for millions of people, particularly low-income populations, also faces significant risks with moderate to high warming or high vulnerability, with a growing challenge by 2050 in terms of providing nutritious and affordable diets . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
The risk transition or 'ember' diagram illustrates the progression of socioecological risk from climate change as a function of global temperature change, taking into account the exposure and vulnerability of people and ecosystems, as assessed by literature-based expert judgement. The definitions of risk levels used to make the expert judgements are presented in Table TS.All.2 . Further details are provided in Section 16.6.3. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
The RFC framework communicates scientific understanding about accrual of risk in relation to varying levels of warming for five broad categories: risk associated with unique and threatened systems, extreme weather events, distribution of impacts, global aggregate impacts and large-scale singular events. The RFC framework was first developed during the Third Assessment Report along with a visual representation of these risks as 'burning embers' figures, and this assessment framework has been further developed and updated in subsequent IPCC reports including ARS. RFCs reflect risks aggregated globally that together inform the interpretation of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
'Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability', the Working Group II contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Sixth Assessment Report presents a comprehensive assessment of the current state of knowledge of the observed impacts and projected risks of climate change as well as the adaptation options. The report confirms the strong interactions of the natural, social and climate systems and that human-induced climate change has caused widespread adverse impacts to nature and people. It is clear that across sectors and regions, the most vulnerable people and systems are disproportionately affected and climate extremes have led to irreversible impacts. The assessment underscores the importance of limiting global warming to 1.5℃ if we are to achieve a fair, equitable and sustainable world. While the assessment concluded that there are feasible and effective adaptation options which can reduce risks to nature and people, it also found that there are limits to adaptation and that there is a need for increased ambition in both adaptation and mitigation. These and other findings confirm and enhance our understanding of the importance of climate resilient development across sectors and regions and, as such, demands the urgent attention of both policymakers and the general public. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
representing a wide range of disciplines. WMO and UNEP are proud that so many of the experts belong to their communities and networks. We express our deep gratitude to all authors, review editors and expert reviewers for devoting their knowledge, expertise and time especially given the challenges created by the Covid pandemic. We would like to thank the staff of the Working Group II Technical Support Unit, the WGII Science Advisor and the IPCC Secretariat for their dedication. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
We are also grateful to the governments that supported their scientists' participation in developing this report and that contributed to the IPCC Trust Fund to provide for the essential participation of experts from developing countries and countries with economies in transition. We would like to express our appreciation to the government of Ethiopia for hosting the scoping meeting for the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report, to the governments of South Africa, Nepal, Portugal and Guatemala for hosting drafting meetings of the Working Group Il contribution and to the government of Germany for hosting the Twelfth Session of Working Group II held virtually for approval of the Working Group II Report. The generous financial support by the government of Germany and the logistical support by the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research , enabled the smooth operation of the Working Group Il Technical Support Unit in Bremen, Germany. Additional funding from the Governments of Germany, Norway and New Zealand provided key support to the Technical Support Unit office in Durban, South Africa. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Climate change is a long-term challenge, but the need for urgent action now is clear. The conclusion of the report's Summary for Policymakers summarizes this succinctly. 'The cumulative scientific evidence is unequivocal: climate change is a threat to human well- being and planetary health. Any further delay in concerted anticipatory global action on adaptation and mitigation will miss a brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a livable and sustainable future for all.' We couldn't agree more. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Human society causes climate change. Climate change, through hazards, exposure and vulnerability generates impacts and risks that can surpass limits to adaptation and result in losses and damages. Human society can adapt to, maladapt and mitigate climate change, ecosystems can adapt and mitigate within limits. Ecosystems and their biodiversity provision livelihoods and ecosystem services. Human society impacts ecosystems and can restore and conserve them. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Meeting the objectives of climate resilient development thereby supporting human, ecosystem and planetary health, as well as human well-being, requires society and ecosystems to move over to a more resilient state. The recognition of climate risks can strengthen adaptation and mitigation actions and transitions that reduce risks. Taking action is enabled by governance, finance, knowledge and capacity building, technology and catalysing conditions. Transformation entails system transitions strengthening the resilience of ecosystems and society . In a) arrow colours represent principle human society interactions , ecosystem interactions and the impacts of climate change and human activities, including losses and damages, under continued climate change . In b) arrow colours represent human system interactions , ecosystem interactions and reduced impacts from climate change and human activities . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
This report has a particular focus on transformation16 and system transitions in energy; land, ocean, coastal and freshwater ecosystems; urban, rural and infrastructure; and industry and society. These transitions make possible the adaptation required for high levels of human health and well-being, economic and social resilience, ecosystem health17, and planetary health18 . These system transitions are also important for achieving the low global warming levels that would avoid many limits to adaptation11. The report also assesses economic and non-economic losses and damages19. This report labels the process of implementing mitigation and adaptation together in support of sustainable development for all as climate resilient development20. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Assessments of climate risks consider possible future climate change, societal development and responses. This report assesses literature including that based on climate model simulations that are part of the fifth and sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase of the World Climate Research Programme. Future projections are driven by emissions and/or concentrations from illustrative Representative Concentration Pathways 21 and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 22 scenarios, respectively23. Climate impacts literature is based primarily on climate projections assessed in AR5 or earlier, or assumed global warming levels, though some recent impacts literature uses newer projections based on the CMIP6 exercise. Given differences in the impacts literature regarding | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
socioeconomic details and assumptions, WGII chapters contextualize impacts with respect to exposure, vulnerability and adaptation as appropriate for their literature, this includes assessments regarding sustainable development and climate resilient development. There are many emissions and socioeconomic pathways that are consistent with a given global warming outcome. These represent a broad range of possibilities as available in the literature assessed that affect future climate change exposure and vulnerability. Where available, WGII also assesses literature that is based on an integrative SSP-RCP framework where climate projections obtained under the RCP scenarios are analysed against the backdrop of various illustrative SSPs22. The WGIl assessment combines multiple lines of evidence including impacts modelling driven by climate projections, observations, and process understanding. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Since AR5, the knowledge base on observed and projected impacts and risks generated by climate hazards, exposure and vulnerability has increased with impacts attributed to climate change and key risks identified across the report. Impacts and risks are expressed in terms of their damages, harms, economic, and non-economic losses. Risks from observed vulnerabilities and responses to climate change are highlighted. Risks are projected for the near-term , the mid and long term , at different global warming levels and for pathways that overshoot 1.5℃ global warming level for multiple decades27. Complex risks result from multiple climate hazards occurring concurrently, and from multiple risks interacting, compounding overall risk and resulting in risks transmitting through interconnected systems and across regions. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Climate change has already had diverse adverse impacts on human systems, including on water security and food production, health and well-being, and cities, settlements and infrastructure. The + and - symbols indicate the direction of observed impacts, with a - denoting an increasing adverse impact and a + denoting that, within a region or globally, both adverse and positive impacts have been observed . Globally, '-' denotes an overall adverse impact; 'Water scarcity' considers, e.g., water availability in general, groundwater, water quality, demand for water, drought in cities. Impacts on food production were assessed by excluding non-climatic drivers of production increases; Global assessment for agricultural production is based on the impacts on global aggregated production; 'Reduced animal and livestock health and productivity' considers, e.g., heat stress, diseases, productivity, mortality; 'Reduced fisheries yields and aquaculture production' includes marine and freshwater fisheries/production; 'Infectious diseases' include, e.g., water-borne and vector-borne diseases; 'Heat, malnutrition and other' considers, e.g., human heat-related morbidity and mortality, labour productivity, harm from wildfire, nutritional deficiencies; 'Mental health' includes impacts from extreme weather events, cumulative events, and vicarious or anticipatory events; 'Displacement' assessments refer to evidence of displacement attributable to climate and weather extremes; 'Inland flooding and associated damages' considers, e.g., river overflows, heavy rain, glacier outbursts, urban flooding; 'Flood/storm induced damages in coastal areas' include damages due to, e.g., cyclones, sea level rise, storm surges. Damages by key economic sectors are observed impacts related to an attributable mean or extreme climate hazard or directly attributed. Key economic sectors include standard classifications and sectors of importance to regions . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
confidence). In rural areas vulnerability will be heightened by compounding processes including high emigration, reduced habitability and high reliance on climate-sensitive livelihoods . Key infrastructure systems including sanitation, water, health, transport, communications and energy will be increasingly vulnerable if design standards do not account for changing climate conditions . Vulnerability will also rapidly rise in low-lying Small Island Developing States and atolls in the context of sea level rise and in some mountain regions, already characterised by high vulnerability due to high dependence on climate-sensitive livelihoods, rising population displacement, the accelerating loss of ecosystem services and limited adaptive capacities . Future exposure to climatic hazards is also increasing globally due to socioeconomic development trends including migration, growing inequality and urbanization . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Global surface temperature changes in °C relative to 1850-1900. These changes were obtained by combining CMIP6 model simulations with observational constraints based on past simulated warming, as well as an updated assessment of equilibrium climate sensitivity . Changes relative to 1850-1900 based on 20-year averaging periods are calculated by adding 0.85℃ to simulated changes relative to 1995-2014. Very likely ranges are shown for SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0 . Assessments were carried out at the global scale for , , and . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
The Reasons for Concern framework communicates scientific understanding about accrual of risk for five broad categories. Diagrams are shown for each RFC, assuming low to no adaptation . However, the transition to a very high risk level has an emphasis on irreversibility and adaptation limits. Undetectable risk level indicates no associated impacts are detectable and attributable to climate change; moderate risk indicates associated impacts are both detectable and attributable to climate change with at least medium confidence, also accounting for the other specific criteria for key risks; high risk indicates severe and widespread impacts that are judged to be high on one or more criteria for assessing key risks; and very high risk level indicates very high risk of severe impacts and the presence of significant irreversibility or the persistence of climate-related hazards, combined with limited ability to adapt due to the nature of the hazard or impacts/risks. The horizontal line denotes the present global warming of 1.09℃ which is used to separate the observed, past impacts below the line from the future projected risks above it. RFC1: Unique and threatened systems: ecological and human systems that have restricted geographic ranges constrained by climate-related conditions and have high endemism or other distinctive properties. Examples include coral reefs, the Arctic and its Indigenous Peoples, mountain glaciers and biodiversity hotspots. RFC2: Extreme weather events: risks/impacts to human health, livelihoods, assets and ecosystems from extreme weather events such as heatwaves, heavy rain, drought and associated wildfires, and coastal flooding. RFC3: Distribution of impacts: risks/impacts that disproportionately affect particular groups due to uneven distribution of physical climate change hazards, exposure or vulnerability. RFC4: Global aggregate impacts: impacts to socio-ecological systems that can be aggregated globally into a single metric, such as monetary damages, lives affected, species lost or ecosystem degradation at a global scale. RFC5: Large-scale singular events: relatively large, abrupt and sometimes irreversible changes in systems caused by global warming, such as ice sheet disintegration or thermohaline circulation slowing. Assessment methods are described in SM16.6 and are identical to AR5, but are enhanced by a structured approach to improve robustness and facilitate comparison between AR5 and AR6. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Examples of regional key risks. Risks identified are of at least medium confidence level. Key risks are identified based on the magnitude of adverse consequences ; likelihood of adverse consequences; temporal characteristics of the risk; and ability to respond to the risk, e.g., by adaptation. The full set of 127 assessed global and regional key risks is given in SM16.7. Diagrams are provided for some risks. The development of synthetic diagrams for Small Islands, Asia and Central and South America were limited by the availability of adequately downscaled climate projections, with uncertainty in the direction of change, the diversity of climatologies and socioeconomic contexts across countries within a region, and the resulting low number of impact and risk projections for different warming levels. Absence of risks diagrams does not imply absence of risks within a region. , SM16.7, Figure CCP4.8, Figure CCP4.10, Figure CCP6.5, WGI AR6 2, WGI AR6 SPM A. 1.2, WGI AR6 Figure SPM.8} | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
settlements, climate impacts to key infrastructure are leading to losses and damages across water and food systems, and affect economic activity, with impacts extending beyond the area directly impacted by the climate hazard . In Amazonia, and in some mountain regions, cascading impacts from climatic and non-climatic stressors will result in irreversible and severe losses of ecosystem services and biodiversity at 2℃ global warming level and beyond . Unavoidable sea level rise will bring cascading and compounding impacts resulting in losses of coastal ecosystems and ecosystem services, groundwater salinisation, flooding and damages to coastal infrastructure that cascade into risks to livelihoods, settlements, health, well-being, food and water security, and cultural values in the near to long-term . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
41 In this report, feasibility refers to the potential for a mitigation or adaptation option to be implemented. Factors influencing feasibility are context-dependent, temporally dynamic, and may vary between different groups and actors. Feasibility depends on geophysical, environmental-ecological, technological, economic, socio-cultural and institutional factors that enable or constrain the implementation of an option. The feasibility of options may change when different options are combined and increase when enabling conditions are strengthened. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Footnotes: 1 The term response is used here instead of adaptation because some responses, such as retreat, may or may not be considered to be adaptation. 2 Including sustainable forest management, forest conservation and restoration, reforestation and afforestation. 3 Migration, when voluntary, safe and orderly, allows reduction of risks to climatic and non-climatic stressors. 4 The Sustainable Development Goals are integrated and indivisible, and efforts to achieve any goal in isolation may trigger synergies or trade-offs with other SDGs. 5 Relevant in the near-term, at global scale and up to 1.5℃ of global warming. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
44 Ecosystem based Adaptation is recognised internationally under the Convention on Biological Diversity . A related concept is Nature-based Solutions , which includes a broader range of approaches with safeguards, including those that contribute to adaptation and mitigation. The term 'Nature-based Solutions' is widely but not universally used in the scientific literature. The term is the subject of ongoing debate, with concerns that it may lead to the misunderstanding that NbS on its own can provide a global solution to climate change. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Climate resilient development integrates adaptation measures and their enabling conditions with mitigation to advance sustainable development for all. Climate resilient development involves questions of equity and system transitions in land, ocean and ecosystems; urban and infrastructure; energy; industry; and society and includes adaptations for human, ecosystem and planetary health. Pursuing climate resilient development focuses on both where people and ecosystems are co-located as well as the protection and maintenance of ecosystem function at the planetary scale. Pathways for advancing climate resilient development are development trajectories that successfully integrate mitigation and adaptation actions to advance sustainable development. Climate resilient development pathways may be temporarily coincident with any RCP and SSP scenario used throughout AR6, but do not follow any particular scenario in all places and over all time. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Panel Higher CRD is characterised by outcomes that advance sustainable development for all. Climate resilient development is progressively harder to achieve with global warming levels beyond 1.5°C. Inadequate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030 reduces climate resilient development prospects. There is a narrowing window of opportunity to shift pathways towards more climate resilient development futures as reflected by the adaptation limits and increasing climate risks, considering the remaining carbon budgets. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
This technical summary complements and expands the key findings of the Working Group Il contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report presented in the Summary for Policymakers and covers literature accepted for publication by 1 September 2021. It provides technical understanding and is developed from the key findings of chapters and cross-chapter papers as presented in their executive summaries and integrates across them. The report builds on the WGII contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC and three special reports of the AR6 cycle providing new knowledge and updates. The three special reports are the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C , an IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty; the Special Report on Climate Change and Land, which is concerned with climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems ; and the Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate . The WGII assessment integrates with the WGI and WGIII contributions and contributes to the Synthesis Report. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
future and aligns efforts globally to prioritise ending extreme poverty, protect the planet and promote more peaceful, prosperous and inclusive societies. Since AR5, several new international conventions have identified climate change adaptation and risk reduction as important global priorities for sustainable development, including the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction , the finance- oriented Addis Ababa Action Agenda, and the New Urban Agenda. The Convention on Biological Diversity and its Aichi targets recognise that biodiversity is affected by climate change, with negative consequences for human well-being, but biodiversity, through ecosystem services, contributes to both climate change mitigation and adaptation. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Confidence in the key findings of this assessment is communicated using the IPCC calibrated uncertainty language. This calibrated language is designed to consistently evaluate and communicate uncertainties that arise from incomplete knowledge due to a lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or even knowable. The IPCC calibrated language uses qualitative expressions of confidence based on the robustness of evidence for a finding and uses quantitative expressions to describe the likelihood of a finding. Each finding is grounded in an evaluation of underlying evidence and agreement. A level of confidence is expressed using five qualifiers, very low, low, medium, high and very high, and typeset in italics, for example, medium confidence. The following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result: virtually certain 99-100% probability, very likely 90-100%, likely 66-100%, as likely as not 33-66%, unlikely 0-33%, very unlikely 0-10%, exceptionally unlikely 0-1%. Assessed likelihood is typeset in italics, for example, very likely. This is consistent with AR5 and the other AR6 reports. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
progress. In this report, expanded attention is given to inequity in climate vulnerability and responses, the role of power and participation in processes of implementation, unequal and differential impacts and climate justice. The historic focus on scientific literature has also been increasingly accompanied by attention to and incorporation of Indigenous knowledge, local knowledge, and associated scholars. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Human society causes climate change. Climate change, through hazards, exposure and vulnerability generates impacts and risks that can surpass limits to adaptation and result in losses and damages. Human society can adapt to, maladapt and mitigate climate change, ecosystems can adapt and mitigate within limits. Ecosystems and their biodiversity provision livelihoods and ecosystem services. Human society impacts ecosystems and can restore and conserve them. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Meeting the objectives of climate resilient development thereby supporting human, ecosystem and planetary health, as well as human well-being, requires society and ecosystems to move over to a more resilient state. The recognition of climate risks can strengthen adaptation and mitigation actions and transitions that reduce risks. Taking action is enabled by governance, finance, knowledge and capacity building, technology and catalysing conditions. Transformation entails system transitions strengthening the resilience of ecosystems and society . In a) arrow colours represent principle human society interactions , ecosystem interactions and the impacts of climate change and human activities, including losses and damages, under continued climate change . In b) arrow colours represent human system interactions , ecosystem interactions and reduced impacts from climate change and human activities . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Risk in this report is defined as the potential for adverse consequences for human or ecological systems, recognising the diversity of values and objectives associated with such systems. In the context of climate change impacts, risks result from dynamic interactions between climate-related hazards with the exposure and vulnerability of the affected human or ecological system. In the context of climate change responses, risks result from the potential for such responses not to achieve the intended objective or from potential trade-offs or negative side-effects. Risk management is defined as plans, actions, strategies or policies to reduce the likelihood and/or magnitude of adverse potential consequences, based on assessed or perceived risks. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Vulnerability is a component of risk, but also, independently, an important focus. Vulnerability in this report is defined as the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected and encompasses a variety of concepts and elements, including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt . Over the past several decades, approaches to analysing and assessing vulnerability have evolved. An early emphasis on top-down, biophysical evaluation of vulnerability included-and often started with-exposure to climate hazards in assessing vulnerability. From this starting point, attention to bottom-up, social and contextual determinants of vulnerability, which often differ, has emerged, although this approach is incompletely applied or integrated across contexts. Vulnerability is now widely understood to differ within communities and across societies, also changing through time. In WGII AR6, assessment of the vulnerability of people and ecosystems encompasses the differing approaches that exist within the literature, both critiquing and harmonising them based on available evidence. In this context, exposure is defined as the presence of people; livelihoods; species or ecosystems; environmental functions, services and resources; infrastructure; or economic, social or cultural assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected. Potentially affected places and settings can be defined geographically, as well as more dynamically, for example through transmission or interconnections through markets or flows of people. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Adaptation in this report is defined, in human systems, as the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In natural systems, adaptation is the process of adjustment to actual climate and its effects; human intervention may facilitate this . Adaptation planning in human systems generally entails a process of iterative risk management. Different types of adaptation have been distinguished, including anticipatory versus reactive, autonomous versus planned and incremental versus transformational adaptation. Adaptation is often seen as having five general stages: awareness, assessment, planning, implementation and monitoring and evaluation. Government, non-government, and private-sector actors have adopted a wide variety of specific approaches to adaptation that, to varying degrees, conform to these five general stages. Adaptation in natural systems includes autonomous adjustments through ecological and evolutionary processes. It also involves the use of nature through ecosystem-based adaptation. The role of species, biodiversity and ecosystems in such adaptation options can range from the rehabilitation or restoration of ecosystems to hybrid combinations of so- called green and grey infrastructure . The WGII AR6 emphasises the assessment of observed adaptation-related responses to climate change, governance and decision-making in adaptation and the role of adaptation in reducing key risks and global- scale reasons for concern, as well as limits to such adaptation. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Resilience in this report is defined as the capacity of social, economic and environmental systems to cope with a hazardous event or trend or disturbance, responding or reorganising in ways that maintain their essential function, identity and structure while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning and transformation. Resilience is an entry point commonly used, although under a wide spectrum of meanings. Resilience as a system trait overlaps with concepts of vulnerability, adaptive capacity and, thus, risk, and resilience as a strategy overlaps with risk management, adaptation and transformation. Implemented adaptation is often organised around resilience as bouncing back and returning to a previous state after a disturbance. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Assessments of climate risks consider possible future climate change, societal development and responses. This report assesses literature including that based on climate model simulations that are part of the fifth and sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase of the World Climate Research Programme. Future projections are driven by emissions and/or concentrations from illustrative Representative Concentration Pathways 1 and Shared Socio-economic Pathways 2 scenarios, respectively3. Climate impacts literature is based primarily on climate projections assessed in AR5 or earlier, or assumed global warming levels, though some recent impacts literature uses newer projections based on the CMIP6 exercise. Given differences in the impacts literature regarding socioeconomic details and assumptions, WGII chapters contextualize impacts with respect to exposure, vulnerability and adaptation as appropriate for their literature, this includes assessments regarding sustainable development and climate resilient development. There are many emissions and socioeconomic pathways that are consistent with a given global warming outcome. These represent a broad range of possibilities as available in the literature assessed that affect future climate change exposure and vulnerability. Where available, WGII also assesses literature that is based on an integrative SSP-RCP framework where climate projections obtained under the RCP scenarios are analysed against the backdrop of various illustrative SSPs2. The WGIl assessment combines multiple lines of evidence including impacts modelling driven by climate projections, observations, and process understanding. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.B.1 Climate change has altered marine, terrestrial and fresh- water ecosystems all around the world . Effects were experienced earlier and are more widespread with more far-reaching consequences than anticipated . Biological responses, including changes in physi- ology, growth, abundance, geographic placement and shifting seasonal timing, are often not sufficient to cope with recent climate change . Climate change has caused local species losses, increases in disease and mass mortality events of plants and animals , resulting in the first climate-driven extinctions , ecosystem restructuring, increases in areas burned by wildfire and declines in key ecosystem services . Climate- driven impacts on ecosystems have caused measurable eco- nomic and livelihood losses and altered cultural practices and recreational activities around the world . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.B.1.1 Anthropogenic climate change has exposed ecosystems to conditions that are unprecedented over millennia , which has greatly impacted species on land and in the ocean . Consistent with expectations, species in all ecosystems have shifted their geographic ranges and altered the timing of seasonal events . Among thousands of species spread across terrestrial, freshwater and marine systems, half to two-thirds have shifted their ranges to higher latitudes , and approximately two-thirds have shifted towards earlier spring life events in response to warming. The move of diseases and their vectors has brought new diseases into the high Arctic and at higher elevations in mountain regions to which local wildlife and humans are not resistant . These processes have led to emerging hybridisation, competition, temporal or spatial mismatches in predator-prey, insect- plant and host-parasite relationships and invasion of alien plant pests or pathogens . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.B.1.2 Observed responses of species to climate change have altered biodiversity and impacted ecosystem structure and resilience in most regions . Range shifts reduce biodiversity in the warmest regions and locations as adaptation limits are exceeded . Simultaneously, these shifts homogenise biodiversity in regions receiving climate-migrant species, alter food webs and eliminate the distinctiveness of communities . Increasing losses of habitat-forming species such as trees, corals, kelp and seagrass have caused irreversible shifts in some ecosystems and threaten associated biodiversity in marine systems . Human-introduced invasive species can reduce or replace native species and alter ecosystem characteristics if they fare better than endemic species in new climate-altered ecological niches . Such invasive species effects are most prominent in geographically constrained areas, including islands, semi-enclosed seas and mountains, and they increase vulnerability in these systems . Phenological shifts increase the risks of temporal mismatches between trophic levels within ecosystems , which can lead to reduced food availability and population abundances and can further destabilise ecosystem resilience. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.B.1.3 At the warm edges of distributions, adaptation limits to human-induced warming have led to widespread local population losses that result in range contractions . Among land plants and animals, local population loss was detected in around 50% of studied species and is often attributable to extreme events . Such extirpations are most common in tropical habitats and freshwater systems , but also high in marine and terrestrial habitats. Many mountain-top species have suffered population losses along lower elevations, leaving them increasingly restricted to a smaller area and at higher risk of extinction . Global extinctions due to climate change are already being observed, with two extinctions currently attributed to anthropogenic climate change . Climate-induced extinctions, including mass extinctions, are common in the palaeo record, underlining the potential of climate change to have catastrophic impacts on species and ecosystems . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.B.1.4 Ecosystem change has led to the loss of specialised ecosystems where warming has reduced thermal habitat, as at the poles, at the tops of mountains and at the equator, with the hottest ecosystems becoming intolerable for many species . For example, warming, reduced ice, thawing permafrost and a changing hydrological cycle have resulted in the contraction of polar and mountain ecosystems. The Arctic is showing increased arrival of species from warmer areas on land and in the sea, with a declining extent of tundra and ice-dependent species, such as the polar bear . Similar patterns of change in the Antarctic terrestrial and marine environment are beginning to emerge, | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Climate change has already had diverse adverse impacts on human systems, including on water security and food production, health and well-being, and cities, settlements and infrastructure. The + and - symbols indicate the direction of observed impacts, with a - denoting an increasing adverse impact and a + denoting that, within a region or globally, both adverse and positive impacts have been observed . Globally, '-' denotes an overall adverse impact; 'Water scarcity' considers, e.g., water availability in general, groundwater, water quality, demand for water, drought in cities. Impacts on food production were assessed by excluding non-climatic drivers of production increases; Global assessment for agricultural production is based on the impacts on global aggregated production; 'Reduced animal and livestock health and productivity' considers, e.g., heat stress, diseases, productivity, mortality; 'Reduced fisheries yields and aquaculture production' includes marine and freshwater fisheries/production; 'Infectious diseases' include, e.g., water-borne and vector-borne diseases; 'Heat, malnutrition and other' considers, e.g., human heat-related morbidity and mortality, labour productivity, harm from wildfire, nutritional deficiencies; 'Mental health' includes impacts from extreme weather events, cumulative events, and vicarious or anticipatory events; 'Displacement' assessments refer to evidence of displacement attributable to climate and weather extremes; 'Inland flooding and associated damages' considers, e.g., river overflows, heavy rain, glacier outbursts, urban flooding; 'Flood/storm induced damages in coastal areas' include damages due to, e.g., cyclones, sea level rise, storm surges. Damages by key economic sectors are observed impacts related to an attributable mean or extreme climate hazard or directly attributed. Key economic sectors include standard classifications and sectors of importance to regions . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
such as declining ranges of krill and emperor penguins . Coral reefs are suffering global declines, with abrupt shifts in community composition persisting for years . Deserts and tropical systems are decreasing in diversity due to heat stress and extreme events . In contrast, arid lands are displaying varied responses around the globe in response to regional changes in the hydrological cycle . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.B.1.5 Climate change is affecting ecosystem services connected to human health, livelihoods and well-being . In terrestrial ecosystems, carbon uptake services linked to CO2 fertilisation effects are being increasingly limited by drought and warming and exacerbated by non-climatic anthropogenic impacts . Deforestation, draining and burning of peatlands and tropical forests and thawing of Arctic permafrost have already shifted some areas from being carbon sinks to carbon sources . The severity and outbreak extent of forest insect pests increased in several regions . Woody plant expansion into grasslands and savannahs, linked to increased CO2, has reduced grazing land, while invasive grasses in semiarid lands increased the risk of fire . Coastal 'blue carbon' systems are already impacted by multiple climate and non- climate drivers . Warming and CO2 fertilisation have altered coastal ecosystem biodiversity, making carbon storage or release regionally variable . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
knowledge and unique insights about plants and animals, are being lost . As 80% of the world's remaining biodiversity is on Indigenous homelands, these losses have cascading impacts on cultural and linguistic diversity and Indigenous knowledge systems, food security, health, and livelihoods, often with irreparable damage and consequences . Cultural losses threaten adaptive capacity and may accumulate into intergenerational trauma and irrevocable losses of sense of belonging, valued cultural practices, identity and home . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |