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Adaptation to climate change is increasingly advocated as we approach a 1.5 degrees C future. Policy-makers emphasise that the required transformation begins with local action. Yet, there is a gap in understanding why local action can remain largely locked-in to maladaptive cycles, with variable on-ground evidence of transformative change. Using 'the politics of scale,' we interrogated 'the local' using ethnographic interviews. We found that although local actors are engaged in various ways, 'doing' environmental work at a very local scale, their practices are constrained, reinforced by cultural, political, and economic arguments. We conceptualise 'hyper-localism' and 'temporal passivity' as emergent conditions that mask connectivity to wider social and ecological networks leading to transformative possibilities. We argue that global climate change discourses reinforce these internal conditions by failing to acknowledge the complexity associated with the 'politics of scale'. The local scale of change is not necessarily more manageable, or its actions likely to create a shared vision. Adaptation is reduced to performative tasks rather than connected processes, impacting the scope and effectiveness of change on ground. Further, in this Australian case study, we see how local 'doing' is still subject to the cross-scale impacts of diminishing nation-state government resourcing reflecting the far-reaching consequences of small government austerity models, and the foisting of responsibility for adaptation to the least powerful and least resourced sectors of civic society. We conclude with the idea that if local adaptation is to lead to transformative outcomes that connect to a global transcendence to affect climate direction, systems of governance need to be linked to strategic visions that deliberately engage with the 'politics of scale', and to affirm more complex processes in engaging with the fluidity of a purposeful global-local nexus.

Lambert, AE; Beilin, R

The 'politics of scale' and the local: How 'hyper-localism' and 'temporal passivity' affect adaptation

Environmental Science & Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2021.01.003

The spatial differentiation of plant functional traits reflects the survival strategies of plants to adapt to climate change. However, the mechanisms that guide this phenomenon, especially along latitude gradients, remain unclear. Leaf traits data, namely specific leaf area, leaf nitrogen content, leaf phosphorus content and leaf dry matter content in northeast China along the latitude was used to identify potential underlying climate and soil drivers of latitudinal gradients in plant traits. (1) Leaf traits of all life forms showed a wide variation across the study locations in northeastern China and the variation was strongly correlated with latitude. The latitudinal interpretation of leaf N and P content spatial differentiation is higher than other functional traits. (2)The latitudinal differences of functional traits were significantly correlated with climatic factors. With the increase of annual average temperature and annual average precipitation (MAT and MAP), specific leaf area (SLA) of leaves increased significantly, while leaf dry matter content (LDMC) decreased significantly (P < 0.05), The N content and P content of leaves showed significant nonlinear changes. The explanation degree of MAT to the spatial differentiation of most leaf traits is higher than the annual average precipitation (MAP). Soil factors also play an important role in shaping the spatial differentiation of leaf functional properties. With the increase of soil N and P content, leaf SLA and leaf N and P content also increased significantly (P < 0.05). The contribution of soil N content is higher than that of soil P content in shaping leaf traits. (3) The independent contribution of climate factors to the latitudinal difference of leaf function was 32.7%, slightly higher than that of soil factors (21.9%). (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Gong, HD; Cui, QJ; Gao, J

Latitudinal, soil and climate effects on key leaf traits in northeastern China

Global Ecology And Conservation

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e00904

BACKGROUND: The temperature-mortality relationship has repeatedly been found, mostly in large cities, to be U/J-shaped, with higher minimum mortality temperature (MMT) at low latitudes being interpreted as indicating human adaptation to climate. OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to partition space with a high-resolution grid to assess the temperature-mortality relationship in a territory with wide climate diversity, over a period with notable climate warming. METHODS: The 16,487,668 death certificates of persons > 65 years of age who died of natural causes in continental France (1968-2009) were analyzed. A 30-km x 30-km grid was placed over the map of France. Generalized additive model regression was used to assess the temperature-mortality relationship for each grid square, and extract the MMT and the RM25 and RM25/18 (respectively, the ratios of mortality at 25 degrees C/MMT and 25 degrees C/18 degrees C). Three periods were considered: 1968-1981 (P1), 1982-1995 (P2), and 1996-2009 (P3). RESULTS: All temperature-mortality curves computed over the 42-year period were U/J-shaped. MMT and mean summer temperature were strongly correlated. Mean MMT increased from 17.5 degrees C for P1 to 17.8 degrees C for P2 and to 18.2 degrees C for P3 and paralleled the summer temperature increase observed between P1 and P3. The temporal MMT rise was below that expected from the geographic analysis. The RM25/18 ratio of mortality at 25 degrees C versus that at 18 degrees C declined significantly (p = 5 x 10(-5)) as warming increased: 18% for P1, 16% for P2, and 15% for P3. CONCLUSIONS: Results of this spatiotemporal analysis indicated some human adaptation to climate change, even in rural areas.

Todd, N; Valleron, AJ

Space-Time Covariation of Mortality with Temperature: A Systematic Study of Deaths in France, 1968-2009

Environmental Health Perspectives

https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307771

Worldwide evidence indicates a reduction in the rate of yield growth for many key food crops, but reasons for this remain unclear. Here, we quantitatively demonstrate the role and significance of different drivers (climate change, fertilizer use, change in rice cultivation area, and changes in crop varieties and management) in explaining rice yield development in China, through the use of two temporally and regionally calibrated crop models - EPIC and DSSAT. China's rice yield has increased from 4324 kg ha(-1) in 1981 to 6553 kg ha(-1) in 2010, with an evidently slowing growth rate over this time period. The observed flattening growth trend is well captured by both crop models. EPIC simulated a yield increase of 2024 kg ha(-1) up to 2010, with agricultural intensification together with increased application of chemical fertilizer and improved crop varieties and management dominating the growth, contributing 64% and 37% respectively, while changes in climate (2%) and cultivation area (-3%) contributed only minimally. The recent slowing rate of rice yield growth is largely interpreted as a decreasing relative contribution of fertilizer, that is not being compensated by relative benefits from improved varieties and management. We also find that adaptation to climate change may have contributed to the observed increase of rice yield by facilitating the relocation of rice growing areas and the adoption of improved rice cultivars. Crop model simulations demonstrate that additional yield increases could be achieved through the introduction of rice cultivars and management optimized for climate, suggesting viable options for reversing the slowing of rice yield growth. Moving towards an agriculture that utilizes climate benefits more smartly is one of the solutions to enhance future food supply in China. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Xiong, W; van der Velde, M; Holman, IP; Balkovic, J; Lin, E; Skalsky, R; Porter, C; Jones, J; Khabarov, N; Obersteiner, M

Can climate-smart agriculture reverse the recent slowing of rice yield growth in China?

Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2014.06.014

Extreme weather and climate events tend to increase and strengthen as global warming intensifies, which severely affect human life and sustainable economic development. Therefore, based on the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) and the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), the optimal fingerprinting method is applied to quantify the greenhouse gases (GHG), aerosols (AA), natural forcing (NAT), and land use/cover change (LUCC) contributions to the intensity, frequency, and duration of extreme temperatures in China during 1960-2020. The results show that GHG is the main driver of extreme temperature changes in China, except for ice days (ID0) and cold spells (CSDI). GHG causes an increase in warm spells (WSDI) by about 10 days and an extension of the growing season length (GSL) by 6 to 8 days. The Tibetan Plateau is the region with the strongest extreme temperature changes influenced by GHG. AA forcing has a cooling effect that partially offsets the warming effect of GHG, especially in southeastern China. It should be pointed out that AA forcing is also the main driver for the changes in diurnal temperature range (DTR) in southeastern China, which exceeds the GHG contribution. Additionally, LUCC has greater impact in nighttime extreme temperature indices changes than the regional AA, and becomes the second dominant factor beside GHG. LUCC leads to an attributable cooling contribution of 0.34 degrees C for the maximum of daily minimum temperatures (TNx). Spatially, the LUCC effects on extreme temperature changes are stronger in western China than in eastern China. The more robust estimation of the GHG, AA, NAT, and LUCC contributions over distinct regions provides an advanced understanding of anthropogenic impacts on regional extreme temperatures, which is expected to be an important reference for regional climate change adaptation and mitigation.

Xu, WL; Lin, TS; Lei, XY; Chen, Y; Gao, L

Anthropogenic emissions and land use/cover change contributions to extreme temperature changes over China

Atmospheric Research

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106845

The Indo-Gangetic river basins feature a wide range of climatic, topographic, and land cover characteristics providing a suitable setting for the exploration of multivariate time series. Here, we collocated a comprehensive feature space for these river basins including Earth observation time series on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), surface water area (SWA), and snow cover area (SCA) in combination with driving variables between December 2002 and November 2020. First, we evaluated changes using multi-faceted trend analyses. Second, we employed the causal discovery algorithm Peter and Clark Momentary Conditional Independence (PCMCI) to disentangle interac-tions within the feature space. PCMCI quantifies direct and indirect relationships between variables and has been rarely applied to remote sensing applications. The results showed that vegetation greening continues significantly. Irrigated croplands in the Indus basin indicated the highest trend magnitude (0.042 NDVI/decade-1). At annual and basin scale, positive trends were also identified for SWA in the Indus (837 km2/decade-1) and Ganges basin (677 km2/decade-1). Annual trends in SCA were insignificant at basin scale. Considering elevation zones, negative SCA trends were found in high altitudes of the Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins. Similarly, NDVI and SWA showed positive trends in high elevations. Furthermore, the causal analysis revealed that NDVI was controlled by water avail-ability. SWA was directly influenced by river discharge and indirectly by precipitation. In high altitudes, SWA was controlled by SCA and temperature. Precipitation and temperature were identified as important drivers of SCA with spatio-temporal variations. With amplified climate change, the joint exploitation of time series will be of increasing importance to further enhance the understanding of land surface change and complex interplays across the spheres of the Earth system. The insights of this study and used methods could greatly support the development of climate change adaptation strategies for the investigated region.

Uereyen, S; Bachofer, F; Klein, I; Kuenzer, C

Multi-faceted analyses of seasonal trends and drivers of land surface variables in Indo-Gangetic river basins

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157515

In the era of the devastating impacts of climate change, many cities around the world make strenuous efforts to find suitable and sustainable adaptation strategies to address the climatic dangers. In the past decades, Baghdad city witnessed an increase in the intensity of surface urban heat island (SUHI) as a result of the change in land cover and population density. By reviewing the related literature, it was found that many studies discussed SUHI intensity and causes, yet there is limited knowledge concerning the adaptation to such a phenomenon. In general, urban green infrastructure (UGI) represents a vital sustainable strategy that can achieve climate change 'adaptation and mitigation' simultaneously. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to assess the effectiveness of UGI in reducing SUHI in Baghdad city. Risafa municipality was selected as a case study, as it suffers from a high level of SUHI risk. Using a computer climatic simulation program; ENVI-met, the temperature of different surfaces in the study area was assessed, and two typical models were selected. Surface temperature (Ts) of different points in these two models was measured according to the base case scenario and to three proposed scenarios of UGI. The results show that UGI has an apparent role in declining Ts in both models. It was also found that the cooling effects of injecting UGI scenarios in similar surfaces of the two models are convergent. This confirms the UGI great effectiveness in reducing SUHI in Baghdad City. It is also found that the effectiveness of UGI in cooling the existing surfaces depends on the original condition of the surfaces and the intensity and types of the injected UGI assets. (C) 2021 THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams University.

Abdulateef, MF; Al-Alwan, HAS

The effectiveness of urban green infrastructure in reducing surface urban heat island

Ain Shams Engineering Journal

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asej.2021.06.012

Increasing climate uncertainty coupled with more frequent extreme events poses a serious threat to the sustainability of smallholder communities dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods. Whilst there is extensive literature on adaptation options, there is a pressing need to understand what interventions have been successful in building smallholder's adaptive capacity, and how these have been transferred (nationally and internationally) through learning outcomes. The aim of this rapid evidence assessment was to assess the extent to which learning outcomes have supported initiatives to mainstream adaptation, focussing on three key areas, (i) scaling up climate sensitive adaptive interventions, (ii) the role of knowledge management to promote effective adaptive solutions, and (iii) human-ecosystem interactions in climate change adaptation. A protocol for the review was defined, from which 806 sources of evidence were retrieved. After screening for relevance using inclusion criteria, 91 were selected and the salient evidence extracted and synthesised. Access to knowledge remains one of the most important determinants of smallholders' decisions to respond to climate risk and a critical element in building adaptive capacity. The way knowledge is generated and exchanged is also directly relevant to securing effective scaling-up pathways. Learning platforms through participatory action research, farmer field schools and community-based initiatives were found to be particularly effective. However, knowledge based on local practices alone may be insufficient to prompt transformative action. Bridging local and external knowledge is critical because it widens the smallholders' knowledge base and encourages 'proactive' adaptation alongside more typical 'reactive' strategies. The contribution of evidence reviews to provide new insights to inform decision-making and investment in international development and the implications for advocating climate-sensitive policies at national and global levels are discussed.

Silici, L; Rowe, A; Suppiramaniam, N; Knox, JW

Building adaptive capacity of smallholder agriculture to climate change: evidence synthesis on learning outcomes

Environmental Research Communications

https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ac44df

In order to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change, adaptive operating rules (AOR) are generally derived using an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs). Up to date, most of related literatures only focus on one fold of the following issues concerning the derivation of AOR using the GCMs ensemble, including: (1) consideration of different scenario weighing methods, or (2) analysis of different positions to locate scenario weights. And less concern is given to the latter compared with the former. However, few studies identify the relationship between (1) and (2) in the derivation of AOR based on the GCMs ensemble. In this study, we attempt to investigate where to use Equal and REA scenario weights in the derivation of reservoir operating rules under climate change. Equal weights (EW) and unequal weights based on the reliability ensemble average (REA) method are used in two positions: (I) the optimization objective of the reservoir operation model, which is to maximize the weighted average hydropower generation for all future scenarios; and (II) the incorporation of GCMs ensemble climate projections into the weighted climate conditions, and then it is input into the reservoir operation model with the objective of maximizing annual hydropower generation. Four AORs, including EW-AOR(I), REA-AOR(I), EW-AOR(II) and REA-AOR(II), are derived, and their optimized parameters are obtained by the simulation-based optimization (SBO) method with the Complex algorithm. The case study in the Jinxi Reservoir in China indicates that REA-AOR(I) outperforms the other three operation schemes, and EW-AOR(II) performs better than REA-AOR(II). Therefore, equal weights are preferably used to incorporate climate conditions, while unequal weights based on REA method can improve the performance of the reservoir operation model. Generally, REA-AOR(I) and EW-AOR(II) are suggested for adaptive reservoir management under climate change.

Zhang, W; Lei, XH; Liu, P; Wang, X; Wang, H; Song, PB

Identifying the Relationship between Assignments of Scenario Weights and their Positions in the Derivation of Reservoir Operating Rules under Climate Change

Water Resources Management

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-018-2101-7

Background: Hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is a significant public health issue in Asia-pacific countries. Numerous studies have examined the relationship between socio-ecological factors and HFMD however the research findings were inconsistent. This study examined the association between socio-ecologic factors and HFMD in multiple provinces across Vietnam. Methods: We applied a spatial autoregressive model using a Bayesian framework to examine the relationship between HFMD and socio-demographic factors. We used a Generalized Linear Model (GLD) with Poisson family to examine the province-specific association between monthly HFMD and climatic factors while controlling for spatial lag, seasonality and long-term trend of HFMD. Then, we used a random-effect meta-analysis to generate pooled effect size of climate-HFMD association for regional and country scale. Results: One percent increase in newborn breastfed within 1 h of birth, households with permanent houses, and households accessed to safe water resulted in 1.57% (95% CI: -2.25, -0.93), 0.96% (-1.66, -0.23), and 1.13% (-2.16, -0.18) reduction in HFMD incidence, respectively. At the country-level, HFMD increased 7% (RR: 1.07; 95% CI: 1.052-1.088) and 3.1% (RR: 1.031, 95% CI: 1.024-1.039) for 1 degrees C increase in monthly temperature above 26 degrees C and 1% increase in monthly humidity above 76%. Whereas, HFMD decreased 3.1% associated with 1 mm increase in monthly cumulative rainfalls. The climate-HFMD relationship was varied by regions and provinces across the country. Conclusions: The findings reflect an important implication for the climate change adaptation strategies and public-health decision, of which development of weather-based early warning systems should be considered to strengthen communicable disease prevention system. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Phung, D; Nguyen, HX; Nguyen, HLT; Do, CM; Tran, QD; Chu, C

Spatiotemporal variation of hand-foot-mouth disease in relation to socioecological factors: A multiple-province analysis in Vietnam

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.08.158

This paper proposes a conceptual framework to systematize the use of Nature-based solutions (NBS) by integrating their resilience potential into Natural Assurance Scheme (NAS), focusing on insurance value as corner stone for both awareness-raising and valuation. As such one of its core goal is to align research and pilot projects with infrastructure development constraints and priorities. Under NAS, the integrated contribution of natural infrastructure to Disaster Risk Reduction is valued in the context of an identified growing need for climate robust infrastructure. The potential of NAS benefits and trade-off are explored by through the alternative lens of Disaster Resilience Enhancement (DRE). Such a system requires a joint effort of specific knowledge transfer from research groups and stakeholders to potential future NAS developers and investors. We therefore match the knowledge gaps with operational stages of the development of NAS from a project designer perspective. We start by highlighting the key role of the insurance industry in incentivizing and assessing disaster and slow onset resilience enhancement strategies. In parallel we place the public sector as potential kick-starters in DRE initiatives through the existing initiatives and constraints of infrastructure procurement. Under this perspective the paper explores the required alignment of Integrated Water resources planning and Public investment systems. Ultimately this will provide the possibility for both planners and investors to design no regret NBS and mixed Grey-Green infrastructures systems. As resources and constraints are widely different between infrastructure development contexts, the framework does not provide explicit methodological choices but presents current limits of knowledge and know-how. In conclusion the paper underlines the potential of NAS to ease the infrastructure gap in water globally by stressing the advantages of investment in the protection, enhancement and restoration of natural capital as an effective climate change adaptation investment.

Denjean, B; Altamirano, MA; Graveline, N; Giordano, R; van der Keur, P; Moncoulon, D; Weinberg, J; Costa, MM; Kozinc, Z; Mulligan, M; Pengal, P; Matthews, J; van Cauwenbergh, N; Gunn, EL; Bresch, DN

Natural Assurance Scheme: A level playing field framework for Green-Grey infrastructure development

Environmental Research

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2017.07.006

The assessments of observed, attributed, and projected changes in extremes in two recent reports, the Intergovernmental Panel (IPCC) on Climate Change Fourth Assessment of Climate Change (AR4) and the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) are compared. This comparison focuses on global-scale changes in extremes as summarized in two summary tables from the AR4 and SREX, respectively. Many of the compared SREX and AR4 assessments of changes in extremes are essentially identical or in partial agreement, once the different language and different approaches to estimating uncertainty are taken into account. Two main exceptions are tropical cyclones and droughts. In the case of tropical cyclones, a less confident SREX assessment of past changes reflects post-AR4 studies that have improved our understanding of the uncertainties in the historical tropical cyclone records, the incomplete understanding of the physical mechanisms linking tropical cyclone metrics to climate change, and the degree of tropical cyclone variability. In the case of droughts, (d)efinitional issues and lack of dataaEuro broken vertical bar plus the inability of models to include all the factors likely to influence droughts have led to overall weaker SREX assessments than was the case in AR4, both for observed and projected changes, although differences in the statements being assessed also explain some of the differences. Increased consistency of approach between assessments would simplify future attempts to compare the assessed uncertainties associated with changes in extremes, although changes in the wording of such assessments also needs to be considered. For instance, some aspects of the SREX assessments were the consequence of the revised IPCC uncertainty guidance, which was prepared mid-way through the SREX process.

Nicholls, N; Seneviratne, SI

Comparing IPCC assessments: how do the AR4 and SREX assessments of changes in extremes differ?

Climatic Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0818-0

Climate is a major driver of agricultural production potentials. To make the best use of these potentials, agricultural management should be adjusted to local climatic conditions. As these conditions change over time, understanding climatic limitations and their trends in time and space is essential for the planning of suitable adaptation measures. In this study, we provide a detailed spatio-temporal analysis of climatic yield potentials for grain maize and winter wheat in Switzerland. We find that current climatic suitability for grain maize is mostly limited by sub-optimal temperatures, radiation and water scarcity, while climatic suitability for winter wheat is mostly limited through excess water, insufficient radiation, as well as frost and heat stress. Over the investigated period from 1983 to 2010, few regional trends in climate suitability were identified for the two crops, indicating that grain maize has benefitted slightly from increasing growth temperatures with recent warming (0.5 degrees C/decade), while winter wheat suitability decreased slightly due to suboptimal radiation/temperature ratios with warming. Despite only small trends in climate suitabilities, which are restricted to particular regions, future climatic changes could lead to more pronounced shifts. The tendencies of climate limitations identified in this study are mostly consistent with findings from other studies, and it can thus be anticipated that maize may continue to benefit from increasing temperatures on the short term, but may also be increasingly limited by water scarcity as summer precipitation decreases. For winter wheat, the relevance of heat stress is likely to increase with increasing temperatures. These results may help to support short-term adaptation planning. However, more detailed analyses of climate projections will be necessary to investigate critical transitions and provide more specific information to support long-term climate change adaptation planning (e.g. for irrigation and breeding programmes).

Holzkämper, A; Fossati, D; Hiltbrunner, J; Fuhrer, J

Spatial and temporal trends in agro-climatic limitations to production potentials for grain maize and winter wheat in Switzerland

Regional Environmental Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0627-7

The world is experiencing more frequent, deadly and costly disasters. Disasters are increasingly uncertain and complex due to rapid environmental and socio-economic changes occurring at multiple scales. Understanding the causes and impacts of disasters requires comprehensive, systematic and multi-disciplinary analysis. This paper introduces recent multidisciplinary work on resilience, disaster risk reduction (DRR), climate change adaptation (CCA) and adaptive governance and then proposes a new and innovative framework for adaptive and integrated disaster resilience (AIDR). AIDR is defined as the ability of nations and communities to build resilience in an integrated manner and strengthen mechanisms to build system adaptiveness. AIDR provides the ability to face complexities and uncertainties by designing institutional processes that function across sectors and scales, to engage multiple stakeholders and to promote social learning. Based on the review of existing academic and non-academic literature, we identify seven pathways to achieve AIDR. These pathways are a conceptual tool to support scholars, policy makers and practitioners to better integrate existing DRR strategies with CCA and more general development concerns. They describe institutional strategies that are aimed at dealing with complexities and uncertainties by integrating DRR, CCA and development; strengthening polycentric governance; fostering collaborations; improving knowledge and information; enabling institutional learning; self-organisation and networking; and provision of disaster risk finance and insurance. We also examine the implications of these pathways for Indonesia, one of the most vulnerable countries to natural hazards and climate change impacts. Our findings suggest that there is an urgent need to commit more resources to and strengthen multi-stakeholder collaboration at the local level. We also argue for placing the community at the centre of an integrated and adaptive approach to DRR and CCA.

Djalante, R; Holley, C; Thomalla, F; Carnegie, M

Pathways for adaptive and integrated disaster resilience

Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0797-5

Analyses of climate adaptation seldom rely on the conceptual toolbox of institutional economics. Yet articles addressing institutions make up a large portion of the climate adaptation literature. With a wealth of institutionally relevant knowledge in the adaptation literature, organizing such knowledge in institutionally meaningful ways can advance the present understanding of the link between institutions and adaptation. Knowing which aspects of this link are well researched, and where in contrast research gaps lie, can provide guidance to institutional economists interested in adaptation. We contribute to this through a systematic review of the adaptation literature, assessing the consideration adaptation scholars give to different elements of the Institutional Analysis and Development framework. Results show a strong focus on collective choice and on adaptation by public actors, with an emphasis on rules in use, social interactions and, to a lesser extent, attributes of the community. Research gaps rather encompass operational and constitutional choice, private adaptation, physical interactions and biophysical conditions.

Roggero, M; Bisaro, A; Villamayor-Tomas, S

Institutions in the climate adaptation literature: a systematic literature review through the lens of the Institutional Analysis and Development framework

Journal Of Institutional Economics

https://doi.org/10.1017/S1744137417000376

Cooperation amongst public, private and civil society actors in the design and implementation of sustainability policies and practices are not new. Many characteristics of urban partnerships, as a diverse set of governance instruments, show potential to address the inherent risks and impacts associated with a changing climate. This review identifies and describes a number of existing and emergent urban partnerships from traditional infrastructure Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) and urban regeneration through to cross-scalar policy networks. It examines the key challenges, and gaps, specific to adaptation that partnerships must embrace if they are to provide a valuable policy instrument for climate adaptation.

Harman, BP; Taylor, BM; Lane, MB

Urban partnerships and climate adaptation: challenges and opportunities

Current Opinion In Environmental Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2014.11.001

Reducing energy intensity and coping with climate change are important policy issues that face all countries. This study examines the impact of business cycles (recessions and expansions) on energy intensity in sixteen emerging countries in 1990-2014. We find that during periods of economic expansion (recessions), business cycles reduce (increase) energy intensity. We also study the moderating effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) between business cycles and energy intensity and find that FDI lowers (raises) energy intensity in countries with high (low) level economic development. In addition, this study finds a nonlinear relationship between business cycles and energy intensity. Policy implications of the findings are discussed. Copyright (c) 2021, Borsa _Istanbul Anonim S,irketi. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NCND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Li, TH; Li, X; Liao, GK

Business cycles and energy intensity. Evidence from emerging economies

Borsa Istanbul Review

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2021.07.005

In recent decades, climate change is exacerbating meteorological disasters around the world, causing more serious urban flood disaster losses. Many solutions in related research have been proposed to enhance urban adaptation to climate change, including urban flooding simulations, risk reduction and urban flood-resistance capacity. In this paper we provide a thorough review of urban flood-resilience using scientometric and systematic analysis. Using Cite Space and VOS viewer, we conducted a scientometric analysis to quantitively analyze related papers from the Web of Science Core Collection from 1999 to 2021 with urban flood resilience as the keyword. We systematically summarize the relationship of urban flood resilience, including co-citation analysis of keywords, authors, research institutions, countries, and research trends. The scientometric results show that four stages can be distinguished to indicate the evolution of different keywords in urban flood management from 1999, and urban flood resilience has become a research hotspot with a significant increase globally since 2015. The research methods and progress of urban flood resilience in these four related fields are systematically analyzed, including climate change, urban planning, urban system adaptation and urban flood-simulation models. Climate change has been of high interest in urban flood-resilience research. Urban planning and the adaptation of urban systems differ in terms of human involvement and local policies, while more dynamic factors need to be jointly described. Models are mostly evaluated with indicators, and comprehensive resilience studies based on traditional models are needed for multi-level and higher performance models. Consequently, more studies about urban flood resilience based on local policies and dynamics within global urban areas combined with fine simulation are needed in the future, improving the concept of resilience as applied to urban flood-risk-management and assessment.

Gao, MY; Wang, ZM; Yang, HB

Review of Urban Flood Resilience: Insights from Scientometric and Systematic Analysis

International Journal Of Environmental Research And Public Health

https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19148837

The relationship between energy use and climate change is the center of analysis about mitigation and adaptation. Yet current studies of the electricity-climate relationship focus on developed countries. Little was known about the energy-use behavior in group living. By using college students' monthly electricity-use data from September 2018 to August 2019 in Beijing, China, we build a weighted least square regression model and found a Ushaped relationship between temperature and electricity consumption. The results show that one additional day of temperature exceeding 30 degrees C would cause a 16.8% increase in monthly electricity consumption with reference to 18-22 degrees C while one additional day of temperature below -6 degrees C will increase it by 6%. The magnitudes of temperature effect on electricity are much greater than those in Shanghai and California. Further, we find that building structures, such as windows orientation and floor height, play important roles in the temperature-electricity relationship. Finally, we predict the changes in electricity use in a collection of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). It finds that the electricity use in summer in north China would increase by 72.8% in RCP 4.5, 79.5% in RCP6.0, and 91.2% in RCP8.5. Our study could be extended to the urban area in northern China, and indicates how the electricity use would respond to climate change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration, covering 8.1% of China's population and 8.4% of gross domestic product. Climate change impact on electricity use in residential and commercial sectors is significant and varying in regions. To achieve sustainable and environmental-friendly development, building structures could play a more effective role in energy saving and adaptation to climate change. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Liu, XQ; Zhang, C; Zhou, Y; Liao, H

Temperature change and electricity consumption of the group living: A case study of college students

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146574

Greenways are a measure of environmental remediation within a broad framework aimed at promoting urban greening and adaptation to climate change. The typical characteristics of large urban agglomerations, including land use (such as commercial, industrial, and residential areas) with few public spaces and fragmented landscapes, make it difficult to apply these solutions to the urban fabric, forcing decision-makers and planners to act in informal settlements, highways, and industrial parks. One proposed area is an enclave with unused or underutilized lots, where fragments of the Atlantic Forest, parks, landfills, and rapidly expanding informal settlements can be found. This manuscript examines the socioeconomic and environmental processes that shaped this potential urban greenway between Santo Andre, Maua, and Ribeirao Pires, which are part of the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region (SPRM), the largest in South America. A survey was conducted based on municipal and regional plans, the environmental and urban laws of Brazil, and the socioeconomic history of this part of the SPRM. In addition, satellite images were used to analyze land use evolution through geotechnologies. Finally, we prepared land use recommendations, considering opportunities and threats, highlighting the possibilities of protection and expansion of the Atlantic Forest. To this end, we examined the literature on environmental urban planning and design, green infrastructure, and other concepts. This study intends to stimulate researchers, planners, and decision-makers regarding the urban greening process in the Global South. According to the recommendations, this stimulus would develop these concepts according to the real situation of the region, which would combine the protection of wild habitats and urban environmental amenities. However, this effort makes no sense if one of the defining Global South characteristics not addressed is social inequality. Therefore, we recommend that an effort be made to develop and incorporate processes from urban greening in slum upgrading.

Moreno, RD; Braga, DRGC; Xavier, LF

Socio-Ecological Conflicts in a Global South Metropolis: Opportunities and Threats of a Potential Greenway in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region

Frontiers In Sustainable Cities

https://doi.org/10.3389/frsc.2021.706857

Conservation agriculture (CA) is actually promoting agricultural practices to be able to adapt to climate change is erratic in the past few years. The CA is a farming technique that utilizes the resources of agriculture wisely, not just take the result alone but focus on saving of water and soil humidity to meet the needs of the plants. Therefore, this innovation is considered the right way to minimize the impact of climate change on dry land. Although innovation proved to be superior, but implementation depends on how the effectiveness of the extension communication model delivered by extension officers to farmers. The extension communication is done effectively will be able to increase the motivation and participation of farmers in implementing innovation. Initially study showed that the CA was successfully adopted by farmers of Camplong-2 village. This research aims to analyze the extension communication model that applied and to analyze the farmer's attitude towards extension communication model was applied. Data were analyzed descriptively using the Likert scale approach and SPSS computed. Results are; 1) extension communication model used by field workers in implementing the CA was a local wisdom extension communication called the gotong royong' extension communication model that collaboration among the AEW, FAO field worker and researcher in which they have built consensus along with farmers to determined information, time and kind of activities in running the Participatory Training and FFS for CA. This approach had increased adaptation and adoption of CA innovation by farmers. 2) farmer's attitude towards the gotong royong' extension communications model was at favorable up to strongly favorable level that acknowledged by 82.6% farmers with an average score of 4.2 or the maximum percentage achieved score of 84%.

Levis, LR; Lehar, L

Farmers attitude toward the 'gotong royong' extension communication model in the implementation of conservation agriculture at Camplong-2 village of Kupang district, West Timor - Indonesia

Bioscience Research

None

Weather and climate services (WCS) are expected to improve the capacity of Africa's agricultural sector to manage the risks of climate variability and change. Despite this, a lack of evidence prevents a realistic analysis of whether such services are delivering on their potential. This paper reviews 66 studies that have evaluated outcomes and/or impacts of agricultural WCS in Africa, highlighting areas that have received relatively more attention as well as persistent gaps. While the evaluation of WCS outcomes is relatively straightforward, estimates of the number of people who access and use these services are uneven (covering a small number of communities in 23 of 54 African countries) and highly variable (with access estimates ranging from 2 to 86%, depending on the service and the population). Meanwhile, 22 documents estimate the impact of WCS with respect to yields and/or income. Developed with a variety of methods, these estimates are also wide ranging and illustrate how impact is conditioned on a number of characteristics of the service, the user, and the context in which both operate. The paper uses lessons developed through this review to develop a learning agenda, or evidence-building roadmap, to establish priorities that can guide work to improve the design, delivery, and impact of agricultural WCS in Africa. Priority learning areas include activities that can strengthen the evidence of access, use, and impacts of WCS, along with those that can advance the use and usability of evidence so as to improve the design and targeting of WCS services. This article is categorized under: Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Learning from Cases and Analogies

Vaughan, C; Hansen, J; Roudier, P; Watkiss, P; Carr, E

Evaluating agricultural weather and climate services in Africa: Evidence, methods, and a learning agenda

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Climate Change

https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.586

Adaptation to climate change is an important theme in the strategy and policy of institutions around the world. Billions of dollars are allocated every year, based on cost estimates of actions to cope with, or benefit from the impacts of climate change. Costing adaptation, however, is complex, involving multiple actors with differing values and a spectrum of possible adaptation strategies and pathways. Currently, expert driven, top-down approaches dominate adaptation costing in practice. These approaches are subject to misallocation, with global funds not always reaching vulnerable communities in most need. This paper introduces an analytical framework called Participatory Social Return on Investment (PSROI), which provides a structured framework for multi-stakeholder planning, selection and valuation of appropriate methods of adaptation. The broader economic, social and environmental impacts of these adaptation actions are explored and valued through a participatory process. PSROI is strength-based, building local capacity and generating stakeholder buy-in. The financial valuation generated provides an additional tool for examining and prioritizing adaptation actions based on their impact. Results from a pilot of the PSROI framework in a smallholder farming community in Western Kenya provide empirical evidence for the difference between expert driven desk-based and ground-based cost estimates that involve local communities. There was an approximate 70 % reduction in the valuation of an agroforestry intervention, selected by the local community, when compared between the desk-based valuation and that of the local community, using primary field data. This reduced expectation of the desk-based PSROI is justified by coherent explanations such as lack of knowledge about the intervention, misconception about the potential costs and benefits, and the risk-averse nature of the farmers. These and other important insights are fundamental for planning and decision-making, as well as appropriate targeting and delivery of funding for adaptation.

Chaudhury, AS; Helfgott, A; Thornton, TF; Sova, C

Participatory adaptation planning and costing. Applications in agricultural adaptation in western Kenya

Mitigation And Adaptation Strategies For Global Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-014-9600-5

Addressing climate change issues require different response actions at various spatial scales. However, the incorporation of climate change issues in the form of agreement, framework and climate policies has tended to focus on international and national scale but lacking at local level. The spatial policies at local level, although not directly linked to climate change, if implemented effectively may become a viable policy instrument to mitigate and adapt to climate change issues. Policy makers at the local level have not explored these local policy options widely. Drawing from the case study in India, this paper aims at understanding how spatial plans in India are incorporating climate change issues and identifying potential gaps. Spatial plans across various cities in India were examined. The skeleton of the review framework is developed upon Moser and Loers (2008) work. To analyze these spatial plans 40 criteria were identified and divided into three components namely awareness, analysis and action. The results of this study show that the roles of spatial plan to integrate climate change issues at the city level in India are still limited. The overall performance of spatial plans shows that they have a low level of awareness, moderate level of analytical capability and limited action response to integrate climate change issues at local level. The result of the study identifies that spatial policies in various cities in India are still limited to physical and economic issues and undermine the issues of climate change. The majority of the sampled spatial plan failed to integrate climate change issues at various fronts of spatial policy process and required to recognize climate change as a critical issue among other issues. Finally the finding of this study creates a platform for discussion and decision making process on the potential aspects where climate change issues can become part of spatial planning policy. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Kumar, P; Geneletti, D

How are climate change concerns addressed by spatial plans? An evaluation framework, and an application to Indian cities

Land Use Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2014.07.016

Understanding major climate risks, adaptation strategies, and factors influencing the choice of those strategies is crucial to reduce farmers' vulnerability. Employing comprehensive data from 2822 farm households in Ethiopia and Kenya (East Africa; EA) and 1902 farm households in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal (South Asia; SA), this study investigates the main climate risks that farmers faced and the adaptation strategies they used. Among others, excessive rainfall and heightened crop pest/disease incidence are commonly observed climate-induced risks in all study areas, while cyclones and salinity are unique to Bangladesh. Drought is prevalent in Ethiopia, India, Kenya, and Nepal. Farmers in those countries responded with strategies that include change in farming practices, sustainable land management, reduce consumption, sell assets, use savings and borrowings, seek alternative employment and assistance from government or NGO. In general, farmers faced several multiple climate risks simultaneously and they responded with multiple adaptation strategies. Therefore, this study used a multivariate probit (MVP) approach to examine the factors influencing the adoption of adaptation strategies. Unlike other studies, we also tested and corrected for possible endogeneity in model estimation. All the countries mentioned have low adaptive capacity to address climate change, which is further weakened by inadequate governance and inefficient institutions. We observed significant differences in the choice of adaptation strategies between male-headed households (MHHs) and female-headed households (FHHs), as well as across countries. Generally, MHHs are more likely to seek additional employment and change agricultural practices, while FHHs and households headed by older persons tend to reduce consumption and rely on savings and borrowings. Institutional support for adaptation is much less in EA compared to SA. Training on alternative farming practices, enhancing non-farm employment options, better institutional support, and social security for older farmers are crucial for climate change adaptation in both regions.

Aryal, JP; Sapkota, TB; Rahut, DB; Marenya, P; Stirling, CM

Climate risks and adaptation strategies of farmers in East Africa and South Asia

Scientific Reports

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-89391-1

Assessing vulnerability to climate change and extremes is the first step towards guiding climate change adaptation. It provides the basis to decide 'what' adaptation measures are needed 'where'. Vulnerability which is defined as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, differs spatially and evolves temporally. Therefore, it is imperative to understand the dynamics of vulnerability at sub-national scales to be prepared for and respond to current and future climatic risks. This paper focuses on Ethiopia where a sub-national understanding of vulnerability dynamics in smallholder agriculture systems is missing to date. The paper assesses the vulnerability of crop-based smallholder systems in Ethiopia for the past (1996-2005), current (2006-2015), and two future (2036-2045 and 2066-2075) climate scenarios using an indicator-based approach. The future scenarios are based on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 from four general circulation models. Results show the emergence of highly vulnerable zones that were missing in the past scenario. With Paris agreement pathway, keeping global warming under 2 degrees C (RCP 2.6), reduction in vulnerability of 10% of the zones is noted in far future (2066-75) as compared to RCP 6.0 where the exposure increases, making 30% of the zones highly vulnerable. The projected increase in exposure to climatic hazards will worsen the vulnerability of smallholder agricultural systems in future unless the current adaptation deficit is sufficiently addressed. This study maps the temporal dynamics of vulnerability unlike the prevailing snapshot assessments at subnational-level for Ethiopia. The study seeks to assist the decision-making process to build resilience to climate change in Ethiopia and other low-income countries with similar geophysical and socio-economic conditions.

Shukla, R; Gleixner, S; Yalew, AW; Schauberger, B; Sietz, D; Gornott, C

Dynamic vulnerability of smallholder agricultural systems in the face of climate change for Ethiopia

Environmental Research Letters

https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abdb5c

Climate change requires joint actions between government and local actors. Understanding the perception of people and communities is critical for designing climate change adaptation strategies. Those most affected by climate change are populations in coastal regions that face extreme weather events and sea-level increases. In this article, geospatial perception of climate change is identified, and the research parameters are quantified. In addition to investigating the correlations of hotspots on the topic of climate change perception with a focus on coastal communities, Natural Language Processing (NLP) was used to examine the research interactions. A total of 27,138 articles sources from Google Scholar and Scopus were analyzed. A systematic method was used for data processing combining bibliometric analysis and machine learning. Publication trends were analyzed in English, Spanish and Portuguese. Publications in English (87%) were selected for network and data mining analysis. Most of the research was conducted in the USA, followed by India and China. The main research methods were identified through correlation networks. In many cases, social studies of perception are related to climatic methods and vegetation analysis supported by GIS. The analysis of keywords identified ten research topics: adaptation, risk, community, local, impact, livelihood, farmer, household, strategy, and variability. Adaptation is in the core of the correlation network of all keywords. The interdisciplinary analysis between social and environmental factors, suggest improvements are needed for research in this field. A single method cannot address understanding of a phenomenon as complicated as the socio-environmental. This study provides valuable information for future research by clarifying the current context of perception work carried out in the coastal regions; and identifying the tools best suited for carrying out this type of research.

Becerra, MJ; Pimentel, MA; De Souza, EB; Tovar, GI

Geospatiality of climate change perceptions on coastal regions: A systematic bibliometric analysis

Geography And Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geosus.2020.09.002

One of the challenges in globally consistent assessments of physical climate risks is the fact that asset exposure data are either unavailable or restricted to single countries or regions. We introduce a global high-resolution asset exposure dataset responding to this challenge. The data are produced using lit population (LitPop), a globally consistent methodology to disaggregate asset value data proportional to a combination of nightlight intensity and geographical population data. By combining nightlight and population data, unwanted artefacts such as blooming, saturation, and lack of detail are mitigated. Thus, the combination of both data types improves the spatial distribution of macroeconomic indicators. Due to the lack of reported subnational asset data, the disaggregation methodology cannot be validated for asset values. Therefore, we compare disaggregated gross domestic product (GDP) per subnational administrative region to reported gross regional product (GRP) values for evaluation. The comparison for 14 industrialized and newly industrialized countries shows that the disaggregation skill for GDP using nightlights or population data alone is not as high as using a combination of both data types. The advantages of LitPop are global consistency, scalability, openness, replicability, and low entry threshold. The open-source LitPop methodology and the publicly available asset exposure data offer value for manifold use cases, including globally consistent economic disaster risk assessments and climate change adaptation studies, especially for larger regions, yet at considerably high resolution. The code is published on GitHub as part of the open-source software CLIMADA (CLIMate ADAptation) and archived in the ETH Data Archive with the link https://doi.org/10.5905/ethz-1007-226 (Bresch et al., 2019b). The resulting asset exposure dataset for 224 countries is archived in the ETH Research Repository with the link https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000331316 (Eberenz et al., 2019).

Eberenz, S; Stocker, D; Röösli, T; Bresch, DN

Asset exposure data for global physical risk assessment

Earth System Science Data

https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-817-2020

In this paper we argue that effective climate adaptation depends on the ability of actors on various levels to achieve a multilevel governance process in which their distinct activities result in a coherent adaptation strategy. The classic government's capacity to coordinate such complex processes has proved limited. Therefore we explore the notion of synchronisation - the ability of actors to connect governance processes that all have their own development, logic and self-organising dynamics. With a theoretical conceptualisation and a case study, we analyse whether and how the concept of synchronisation helps to understand the self-organising coordinative capacity within multilevel governance processes.

Verkerk, J; Teisman, G; Van Buuren, A

Synchronising climate adaptation processes in a multilevel governance setting: exploring synchronisation of governance levels in the Dutch Delta

Policy And Politics

https://doi.org/10.1332/030557312X655909

This paper critically examines the temporal and spatial dynamics of adaptation in climate change science and explores how dynamic notions of 'place' elucidate novel ways of understanding community vulnerability and adaptation. Using data gathered from a narrative scenario-building process carried out among communities of the Big Hole Valley in Montana, the paper describes the role of 'place-making' and the 'politics of place' in shaping divergent future climate adaptation pathways. Drawing on a situated adaptation pathways framework and employing an iterative scenario building process, this article demonstrates how 'place' contextualizes future imagined trajectories of social and ecological change so that key impacts and decisions articulate as elements of place-making and place politics. By examining these key 'moments' of future change, participants illuminate the complex linkages between place and governance that are integral to understanding community adaptation and planning for an uncertain future.

Murphy, DJ; Yung, L; Wyborn, C; Williams, DR

Rethinking climate change adaptation and place through a situated pathways framework: A case study from the Big Hole Valley, USA

Landscape And Urban Planning

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2017.07.016

In order to explore the effects of climate change on Mediterranean regenerating forests, we experimentally assessed the effects of increased drought on the reproductive attributes of Quercus ilex over a 4-year period (2005-2008). We also investigated whether traditional thinning (selection of one to a few stems per stump) could mitigate the consequences of increased drought in oak coppices. Increased drought reduced the number of reproductive trees, mean number of female flowers produced and acorn crop size, although most of these effects appeared only in the last 2 years of the experiment. In a different way, thinning enhanced all reproductive attributes, but its main effects were transient and covered only 1 or 2 years after the application of the treatments. Our results indicate that a moderate reduction in rainfall (15 per cent) reduces the reproductive ability of Q. ilex. This may have long-term negative consequences for recruitment as well as for the fauna feeding on acorns. Although traditional thinning may mitigate the consequences of increased drought, it has a remarkably short-term effect. This highlights the need to re-examine traditional forestry practices as potential adaptive strategies for coping with climate change in Mediterranean regenerating forests.

Sánchez-Humanes, B; Espelta, JM

Increased drought reduces acorn production in Quercus ilex coppices: thinning mitigates this effect but only in the short term

Forestry

https://doi.org/10.1093/forestry/cpq045

Climate change challenges cultural heritage management and preservation. Understanding the barriers that can impede preservation is of paramount importance, as is developing solutions that facilitate the planning and management of vulnerable cultural resources. Using online survey research, we elicited the opinions of diverse experts across southeastern United States, a region with cultural resources that are particularly vulnerable to flooding and erosion from storms and sea level rise. We asked experts to identify the greatest challenges facing cultural heritage policy and practice from coastal climate change threats, and to identify strategies and information needs to overcome those challenges. Using content analysis, we identified institutional, technical and financial barriers and needs. Findings revealed that the most salient barriers included the lack of processes and preservation guidelines for planning and implementing climate adaptation actions, as well as inadequate funding and limited knowledge about the intersection of climate change and cultural heritage. Experts perceived that principal needs to overcome identified barriers included increased research on climate adaptation strategies and impacts to cultural heritage characteristics from adaptation, as well as collaboration among diverse multi-level actors. This study can be used to set cultural heritage policy and research agendas at local, state, regional and national scales.

Fatoric, S; Seekamp, E

Securing the Future of Cultural Heritage by Identifying Barriers to and Strategizing Solutions for Preservation under Changing Climate Conditions

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su9112143

Carrying out wildlife conservation in a changing climate requires planning on long timescales at both a site and network level, while also having the flexibility to adapt actions at sites over short timescales in response to changing conditions and new information. The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), a land-owning wildlife conservation charity in the UK, achieves this on its nature reserves through its system of management planning. This involves setting network-wide objectives which inform the 25-year vision and 5-year conservation objectives for each site. Progress toward achieving each site's conservation objectives is reviewed annually, to identify any adjustments which might be needed to the site's management. The conservation objectives and 25-year vision of each site are reviewed every 5 years. Significant long-term impacts of climate change most frequently identified at RSPB reserves are: loss of intertidal habitat through coastal squeeze, loss of low-lying islands due to higher sea levels and coastal erosion, loss of coastal freshwater and brackish wetlands due to increased coastal flooding, and changes in the hydrology of wetlands. The main types of adaptation measures in place on RSPB reserves to address climate change-related impacts are: re-creation of intertidal habitat, re-creation and restoration of freshwater wetlands away from vulnerable coastal areas, blocking artificial drainage on peatlands, and addressing pressures on freshwater supply for lowland wet grasslands in eastern and southeastern England. Developing partnerships between organizations has been crucial in delivering large-scale adaptation projects.

Ausden, M

Climate Change Adaptation: Putting Principles into Practice

Environmental Management

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-013-0217-3

This paper deals with policy making and implementation of policy instruments for Climate Adaptation of Agriculture (AACC) and fits into the literature concerning the challenges of efficient implemetation of climate policies in the territories. It describes the process of sectorization of the phenomenon, and analyzes the instruments which link agriculture to climate change in the State of Sao Paulo: the agroecological transition protocol and plan, and also the old rural insurance now adapted to climate risks. It concludes that: adaptation policies are weakly setted on the political agenda; the choice of policy instruments shapes the agenda; the marginalized agricultural sector creates its own adaptive, acclimatized and disjointed policies from other sectors, reinforcing their marginalization; the policy making of these instruments do not follow a sequential multi-level logic, from the international to the Union, the States and the municipalities; the instruments are not articulated between them, but suggest a sort of tinkering of sectoral policies, each with its own logic and processes.

Caldas, ED; Massardier, G

The climatization of policies in a context of fragmentation and sectorization of agendas and tools

Confins-Revue Franco-Bresilienne De Geographie-Revista Franco-Brasileira De Geografia

https://doi.org/10.4000/confins.31691

Exploring the activity patterns of small mammals is important for understanding the survival strategies of these animals, such as foraging and mating. The purpose of the present study was to determine the activity of free-living plateau pikas (Ochotona curzoniae) in different months and seasons (cold and warm seasons), with a particular emphasis on the effects of weather condition. Based on a camera-trapping survey conducted from October 2017 to September 2018, we evaluated the activity patterns and activity levels of plateau pikas inhabiting the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China. The effects of environmental factors on the activity of plateau pikas were examined using the generalized additive mixed model (GAMM). The results showed that: (1) The plateau pikas exhibited unimodal patterns of activity during the cold season (October-April). During the warm season (May-September), the activity patterns of the plateau pikas were bimodal. Their activity levels were highest in June. (2) During the cold season, their activity levels rose gradually over the course of the day to a peak near noon, and they were not significantly higher after sunrise than they were before sunset. During the warm season, their activity peaks were in the morning and afternoon, and their activity levels were substantially lower after sunrise than they were before sunset. (3) The plateau pikas were more active under conditions with lower ambient temperatures and precipitation during the cold and warm seasons. While relative air humidity was positively correlated with the activity of the plateau pikas during the warm season, wind speed was negatively correlated with the pikas' activity during the cold season. Overall, these results collectively indicate that plateau pikas occupy habitats with cool and less windy microclimates during the cold season, and with cool and moist microclimates during the warm season. Information on the time allocation of pikas' activity levels during different seasons should provide a baseline for understanding their potential for adaptation to climate change.

Zhou, R; Hua, R; Tang, ZS; Hua, LM

Daily and Seasonal Activity Patterns of Plateau Pikas (Ochotona curzoniae) on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China, and Their Relationship with Weather Condition

Animals

https://doi.org/10.3390/ani13101689

This article examines recent international financial institution and national government policy in North Africa intended to address the climate emergency. It focuses on the role of the World Bank and general policy trends since the 1970s. These policy trends fail to understand the continuing centrality of small-scale family farming to social reproduction and food production. The article stresses the significance of historical patterns of underdevelopment, and the uneven incorporation of North Africa into global capitalism. An understanding of the longue duree is crucial in understanding why, and how, agrarian transformations have taken the form that they have, and why national sovereign projects and popular struggles offer an alternative strategy to counter imperialism and neo-colonialism. International financial institutions' preoccupation with policies of mitigation and adaptation to climate change fails to address how poverty is generated and reproduced. Cet article examine les recentes politiques des institutions financieres internationales et des gouvernements nationaux en Afrique du Nord visant a repondre a l'urgence climatique. Il se concentre sur le role de la Banque mondiale et sur les tendances politiques depuis les annees 1970. Il s'agit d'une politique qui ne comprend pas le role central que continue de jouer l'agriculture familiale a petite echelle dans la reproduction sociale et la production alimentaire. L'article souligne l'importance des tendances historiques de sous-developpement et l'integration inegale de l'Afrique du Nord dans le capitalisme mondial. Une comprehension de la longue duree est cruciale pour comprendre pourquoi et comment les transformations agraires ont pris la forme qu'elles ont prise et pourquoi les projets souverains nationaux et les luttes populaires offrent une strategie alternative pour contrer l'imperialisme et le neocolonialisme. La preoccupation des institutions financieres internationales pour les politiques d'attenuation et d'adaptation au changement climatique ne tient pas compte de la maniere dont la pauvrete est generee et reproduite.

Ajl, M; Ayeb, H; Bush, R

North Africa: the climate emergency and family farming

Review Of African Political Economy

https://doi.org/10.1080/03056244.2023.2267311

The poor natural regeneration of Pinus koraiensis is a key limitation for restoring the primary mixed Pinus koraiensis forests. Seed harvesting and climate change are the important factors that influence the natural regeneration of Pinus koraiensis; however, it is hard to illustrate how, in synergy, they affect its regeneration at the landscape scale. In this study, we coupled an ecosystem process model, LINKAGES, with a forest landscape model, LANDIS PRO, to evaluate how seed harvesting and climate change influenced the natural regeneration of Pinus koraiensis over large temporal and spatial scales. Our results showed that seed harvesting decreased the abundance of Pinus koraiensis juveniles by 1, 14, and 18 stems/ha under the historical climate, and reduced by 1, 17, and 24 stems/ha under the future climate in the short- (years 0-50), medium- (years 60-100), and long-term (years 110-150), respectively. This indicated that seed harvesting intensified the poor regeneration of Pinus koraiensis, irrespective of climate change. Our results suggested that seed harvesting diminished the generation capacity of Pinus koraiensis over the simulation period. Seed harvesting reduced the abundance of Pinus koraiensis at the leading edge and slowed down its shift into high-latitude regions to adapt to climate change. Our results showed that the effect magnitudes of seed harvesting, climate change, their interaction and combination at the short-, medium- and long-term were -61.1%, -78.4%, and -85.7%; 16.5%, 20.9%, and 38.2%; -10.1%, -16.2% and -32.0%; and -54.7%, -73.8%, and -79.5%, respectively. Seed harvesting was a predominant factor throughout the simulation; climate change failed to offset the negative effect of seed harvesting, but the interactive effect between seed harvesting and climate change almost overrode the positive effect of climate change. Seed harvesting, climate change, and their interaction jointly reduced the natural regeneration of Pinus koraiensis. We suggest reducing the intensity of seed harvesting and increasing silvicultural treatments, such as thinning and artificial plantation, to protect and restore the primary mixed Pinus koraiensis forests.

Liu, K; Sun, H; He, HS; Guan, X

Seed Harvesting and Climate Change Interact to Affect the Natural Regeneration of Pinus koraiensis

Forests

https://doi.org/10.3390/f14040829

Background: In Latin America, where climate change and rapid urbanization converge, non-optimal ambient temperatures contribute to excess mortality. However, little is known about area-level characteristics that confer vulnerability to temperature-related mortality. Objectives: Explore city-level socioeconomic and demographic characteristics associated with temperature-related mortality in Latin American cities. Methods: The dependent variables quantify city-specific associations between temperature and mortality: heatand cold-related excess death fractions (EDF, or percentages of total deaths attributed to cold/hot temperatures), and the relative mortality risk (RR) associated with 1 degrees C difference in temperature in 325 cities during 2002-2015. Random effects meta-regressions were used to investigate whether EDFs and RRs associated with heat and cold varied by city-level characteristics, including population size, population density, built-up area, age-standardized mortality rate, poverty, living conditions, educational attainment, income inequality, and residential segregation by education level. Results: We find limited effect modification of cold-related mortality by city-level demographic and socioeconomic characteristics and several unexpected associations for heat-related mortality. For example, cities in the highest compared to the lowest tertile of income inequality have all-age cold-related excess mortality that is, on average, 3.45 percentage points higher (95% CI: 0.33, 6.56). Higher poverty and higher segregation were also associated with higher cold EDF among those 65 and older. Large, densely populated cities, and cities with high levels of poverty and income inequality experience smaller heat EDFs compared to smaller and less densely populated cities, and cities with little poverty and income inequality. Discussion: Evidence of effect modification of cold-related mortality in Latin American cities was limited, and unexpected patterns of modification of heat-related mortality were observed. Socioeconomic deprivation may impact cold-related mortality, particularly among the elderly. The findings of higher levels of poverty and income inequality associated with lower heat-related mortality deserve further investigation given the increasing importance of urban adaptation to climate change.

Bakhtsiyarava, M; Schinasi, LH; Sánchez, BN; Dronova, I; Kephart, JL; Ju, Y; Gouveia, N; Caiaffa, WT; O'Neill, MS; Yamada, G; Arunachalam, S; Diez-Roux, AV; Rodríguez, DA

Modification of temperature-related human mortality by area-level socioeconomic and demographic characteristics in Latin American cities

Social Science & Medicine

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2022.115526

In the context of rapid urbanization, the reduction of urban ecological land area, space chaos, and fragmentation have led to a series of climate and environmental problems. This paper takes the ecological patches of the urban climate environment compensation space as the research object and establishes several urban canopy models of several cases based on geographic information data. Then, we input them into the mesoscale WRF-UCM model and simulate after loading the meteorological data to derive the meteorological indicators of each case, quantitatively analyze the meteorological conditions in the ecological patch boundaries with different surface attributes, and conduct research on the quality-efficiency correspondence of the physical characteristics of the ecological patches and the spillover effects of climate regulation. Studies have shown that the highest surface temperature difference between water patches and patches with other attributes Delta Tsk is up to 6.5 degrees C in winter and 11.5 degrees C in summer. The highest temperature difference at a somatosensory height of 2 meters Delta T2 is up to 2.0 degrees C in winter and 3.0 degrees C in summer, which can improve the surrounding environment. Under light wind conditions, water patches will have a positive spillover effect within 5.5 km of the downwind direction. Based on the data, an optimization strategy for the spatial pattern of urban ecological patches is proposed: the best distribution of water patches that are beneficial to the climate adjustment of Wuhan in winter and summer is in the north or northeast of the city, followed by the south or southwest. The north and northeast of the city should keep the woodland patches and reduce the setting of vegetation/arable land and wetland patches. This research is an interdisciplinary study of urban spatial planning that adapts to climate change, to supplement the deficiencies of urban planning theory, and to provide guidance for the promotion of green and ecological city construction.

Li, XS; Chen, H; Lin, K

The Spatial Pattern Strategy of Urban Ecological Patches Based on the Mesoscale WRF-UCM Model: Taking Wuhan City a an Example

Wireless Communications & Mobile Computing

https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/8599257

CONTEXT: Conventional cropping systems in south-western France contribute greatly to the degradation of environmental resources. Crop diversification is considered to be an effective mechanism to increase the sustainability of cropping systems and promote their transition to agroecology. To test this hypothesis, farmers, agricultural advisers and scientists developed a participative co-design project. OBJECTIVE: The main objective was to co-design cropping systems to reduce the use of inputs, experiment with them on farms and assess their sustainability over several years. METHODS: Eight diversified cropping systems were designed during multi-actor co-innovation workshops. These systems were established and monitored for eight years (2010-2017) on two fields on each of eight farms located in areas with different soil and climate conditions. At the end of the eight-year study, the performance of these cropping systems was evaluated using 15 economic, environmental and social indicators. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Crop diversification improved most of the environmental indicators. Pesticide use decreased by 20-64% in five of the eight systems but increased in the other three, due to production contracts that required systematic applications or in order to control high levels of pest or weed pressure. In parallel, mean energy consumption (-30%), greenhouse gas emissions (-36%) and irrigation water consumption (-43%) decreased significantly after diversification, which helped the systems mitigate and adapt to climate change. The economic performance, however, was more contrasted, with four of the eight farms showing a decrease in seminet margin of 10-35% compared to those of the initial systems, but the other four showing an increase of 5-190%. Production of food energy also generally decreased (by up to 40%) after diversification, mainly due to a decrease in the amount of cereals produced (especially maize). Thus, crop diversification usually improves the environmental sustainability of cropping systems; however, for certain specialised high-value cropping systems, which often have high environmental impacts, it tends to reduce their economic performances.

Alletto, L; Vandewalle, A; Debaeke, P

Crop diversification improves cropping system sustainability: An 8-year on-farm experiment in South-Western France

Agricultural Systems

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2022.103433

This study analyses the long-term (1950-2100) observed and projected changes in springtime (March-May) heat waves (HWs) in West Africa under climate change. To that end, 28 climate models participating to the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are considered, after a statistical post-correction of their biases. A multi-scale approach is proposed, covering the Sahel, Senegal, and three thermally-coherent zones within Senegal. HWs are defined as a sequence of at least three consecutive days above a moving 95th percentile of current temperature distributions. Climate change over Senegal translates into a general shift of the whole statistical distribution towards higher temperature values, with a general stability in the shape of the distribution. Ongoing mean warming could reach +5 degrees C in 2100 under RCP8.5 scenario, implying that coastal Senegal could experience then a mean climate comparable to the hinterland parts today. HWs have increased in intensity, frequency and duration across Sahel and Senegal over the past years, such intensification being higher on recent decades. Future HWs over all regions present intrinsic properties that radically differ from those observed so far. The severity and length of HWs displayed stationary conditions until the late 1990s, but started increasing since then. Projected changes show marked and rapid increase in these variables, the amplitude of which is primarily RCP-dependent, and secondarily region-dependent. For both metrics, the largest changes occur over hinterland Senegal and Sahel. There, under RCP8.5 and after the 2070s, the whole spring season could be considered as a permanent HW lasting 3 months. Along the coast, by contrast, average temperatures are both weaker and more variable, causing more frequent threshold crossings and limiting the duration of HWs. The multi-scale approach used here highlights contrast within Senegal, which constitutes important information for public policy decision-makers and its inhabitants in terms of adaptation to climate change.

Sambou, MJG; Pohl, B; Janicot, S; Famien, AML; Roucou, P; Badiane, D; Gaye, AT

Heat waves in spring from Senegal to Sahel: Evolution under climate change

International Journal Of Climatology

https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7176

Background and Aims The major phenological events, such as harvest, are critical periods in the wine business calendar requiring much planning and organisation of resources, yet anticipation of the timing of these events is still imprecise. The aims of this study were to better understand why grape maturity (defined here as the day of the year the grapes reached 11.5 Be) is advancing, and how different cultivars and regions are responding to the seasonal temperature conditions. Methods and Results Trends in rate of ripening (Be/day or Be/degrees C day) and the day of year veraison (DOYV) were analysed at four Victorian vineyard regions and included 24 cultivars covering 20 years. There was a significant difference between cultivars in their rate of ripening with later ripening cultivars ripening more slowly (Be/day). Higher yield slowed the rate of ripening (Be/day), significantly at two vineyards. No significant temporal trends were observed for the rate of ripening nor for the interval between DOYV and day of year maturity (DOYM), as related to Vintage Year or Springtime Temperature (max), although these may become apparent with a longer series of data and resulting smaller confidence intervals. Different cultivars, however, had a significantly different rate of change for this interval over time, and higher yield was associated with a longer interval length. Day of year veraison advanced significantly as related to Springtime Temperature (max) at all vineyards, and at a significantly different rate for different cultivars at three of the four vineyards. There was a positive association between yield and DOYV. Conclusions These results suggest that the observed advancement of grape maturity can be explained by the advancement of veraison, rather than an increase in the rate of ripening, for these cultivars in these regions. Significance of the Study The study showed that there is existing cultivar diversity which, if better understood, could help better anticipate phenological timing, improve vineyard management and assist in adapting to climate change.

Cameron, W; Petrie, PR; Barlow, EWR; Patrick, CJ; Howell, K; Fuentes, S

Is advancement of grapevine maturity explained by an increase in the rate of ripening or advancement of veraison?

Australian Journal Of Grape And Wine Research

https://doi.org/10.1111/ajgw.12481

To meet increasing demand for information on future drought hazard to help Australia build resilience and preparedness under a changing climate, we developed new information on drought projections for Australia and four sub-regions based on the natural resources management (NRM) zones. The information reported here includes: two drought indices (the Standardised Precipitation Index, SPI, and the Standardised Soil Moisture Index, SSMI); four drought metrics (percent time spent in droughts, mean drought duration, mean drought frequency, and mean drought intensity); and two drought categories (drought and extreme drought). The projections are developed from CMIP5 global climate model simulations of rainfall and soil moisture for the historical (1900-2005) and future (2006-2100) climates. The multi-model results project significant increases in all the drought hazard metrics, except frequency, with larger changes in the SSMI compared to SPI. The more severe drought hazard under climate change is apparent over a larger area than previously indicated, particularly in southern and eastern Australia. Although the majority of modelling results indicate more severe drought conditions, the range in the results is large, mainly because of the uncertainty in the global climate model rainfall projections. A projected decrease in rainfall results in a projected increase in drought severity (which is further enhanced by the increase in potential evapotranspiration), and a projected increase in rainfall results in a projected decrease in drought severity (moderated by the increase in potential evapotranspiration). The assessment of the ability of models to reproduce historical observations does not show clusters of models that best simulate all the different drought metrics. Unlike previously assumed, the results show that the models that best reproduce the observed rainfall are not necessarily best in simulating the drought metrics. For this reason, all the models are used here to estimate the multi-model median and range of results. The large uncertainty in the projections can be confusing to end users and present challenges in adapting to climate change. The presentation and communication of projections here will also go some way towards overcoming this challenge.

Kirono, DGC; Round, V; Heady, C; Chiew, FHS; Osbrough, S

Drought projections for Australia: Updated results and analysis of model simulations

Weather And Climate Extremes

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2020.100280

India's geography, monsoon dependency and weather anomalies place wheat production prospects and sustainability at crossroads across agro-ecologies owing to its vulnerability. An attempt has been made to track the vulnerability in wheat producing regions for climate smart farming in India sourcing relevant historical data on multi-dimensional indicators for sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity. The composite vulnerability index has been estimated for 16 wheat growing states using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approach. First, the variables were normalised to make them unit free for comparison and second, weights were assigned to each variable across three dimensions (sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity) using the principal component analysis. Later, the regions were categorised into three groups based on the magnitude of the index viz., high, moderate, and less. Jharkhand registered the highest sensitivity (0.61) while Punjab registered the lowest (0.18). Considering the exposure of regions to various climatic and weather variables in the wheat growing season (Rabi: November-April), it was found that Jharkhand had the highest exposure (0.48) and Punjab witnessed the lowest (0.30). In terms of adaptation to climate change, it was found that Maharashtra (0.63) had the highest adaptive capacity, followed by Haryana and Punjab. On the contrary, Jharkhand had the lowest adaptive capacity (0.21). Overall, the analysis of cross-sectional and multi-dimensional data indicated that Jharkhand is the most vulnerable region and Punjab is the least vulnerable region across wheat producing ecologies. Vulnerability mapping indicated that the magnitude of vulnerability is high in five regions (contributing 19% of total production), moderate in six regions (12% production) and low in five wheat growing regions (69% production). Regional prioritization has to be made in lieu of deviation in area and yield to minimize production losses. Further, adaptive measures and climate smart farming need to be practiced at farm and regional levels by formulating suitable policies and investment plans..

Sendhil, R; Jha, A; Kumar, A; Singh, S

Extent of vulnerability in wheat producing agro-ecologies of India: Tracking from indicators of cross-section and multi-dimension data

Ecological Indicators

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.02.053

Climate change-related hazards and disasters, known to adversely impact physical and mental health outcomes, are also expected to result in human migration above current levels. Environmentally-motivated migration and displacement may lead to the disruption of existing social ties, with potentially adverse consequences for mobile populations as well as their family members who remain in places of origin. We propose that the disruption of social ties is a key mechanism by which climate-related migration may negatively impact mental health, in particular. Existing social ties may provide social and material resources that buffer mental health stressors related to both prolonged and acute climate events. Preparation for such events may also strengthen these same ties and protect mental health. Communities may leverage social ties, first to mitigate climate change, and second, to adapt and rebuild post-disaster in communities of origin. Additionally, social ties can inform migration decisions and destinations. For example, scholars have found that the drought-motivated adaptive migration of West African Fulbe herders only occurred because of the long-term development of social networks between migrants and non-migrants through trade and seasonal grazing. On the other hand, social ties do not always benefit mental health. Some migrants, including those from poor regions or communities with no formal safety net, may face considerable burden to provide financial and emotional resources to family members who remain in countries of origin. In destination communities, migrants often face significant social marginalization. Therefore, policies and programs that aim to maintain ongoing social ties among migrants and their family and community members may be critically important in efforts to enhance population resilience and adaptation to climate change and to improve mental health outcomes. Several online platforms, like Refugee Start Force, serve to integrate refugees by connecting migrants directly to people and services in destination communities. These efforts may increasingly draw upon novel technologies to support and maintain social networks in the context of population mobility due to climatic and other factors.

Torres, JM; Casey, JA

The centrality of social ties to climate migration and mental health

Bmc Public Health

https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-017-4508-0

Climate change and rapid urbanization increase/amplify urban heat islands (UHIs). Green infrastructure (GI) is an effective and popularly strategy used to moderate UHIs. This paper aims to better understand the progress of different GI types (urban parks, urban forests, street trees, green roofs, green walls) in mitigating UHIs, and what benefits they provide. Firstly, this paper used CiteSpace to analyze 1243 publications on the Web of Science from 1990 to 2021, then analyzed the function/regulation of ecosystem services/benefits and values of GI types in reducing UHIs. The historical review results show that research on all GI types showed rapid growth since 2013, and their GR increased rapidly. The highest-ranking keywords were urban heat island/heat island, climate/climate change/microclimate, and temperature/land surface temperature/air temperature. Design, vegetation, quality, and reduction are the top four strongest keyword bursts. The most published countries are the People's Republic of China, USA, Australia, Germany, and Italy, and the top three institutions are the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Arizona State University, and the National University of Singapore. Landscape and Urban Planning, Building and Environment, Energy and Building, and Urban Forestry and Urban Greening are the most published journals. In urban areas, different GI types as a form of ecosystem hardware provide multiple functions (reduced land surface temperatures, lower building energy usage, improved thermal comfort and enhanced human health, reduced morbidity and mortality, etc.). GI thus provides a regulated ecosystem service to ameliorate UHIs primarily through temperature regulation and shade. At the same time, GI provides benefits and values (ecological, economic, social, and cultural) to humans and urban sustainable development. GI types determine the functions they provide, afford corresponding regulated ecosystem services, and provide benefits and values in a logical/recycle system. Overall, this review highlights the development and importance of GI, as well as the relationship of GI types and functions of regulating the ecosystem service benefits and values to mitigate UHI, and advances the study of climate change adaptation in cities.

Shao, HM; Kim, G

A Comprehensive Review of Different Types of Green Infrastructure to Mitigate Urban Heat Islands: Progress, Functions, and Benefits

Land

https://doi.org/10.3390/land11101792

Climate change is having a catastrophic impact on the livelihoods of farm households in Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA). This study employs comprehensive data obtained in 2018 from 4351 farm households in five countries to appraise the key climate hazards experienced by farmers, the risk coping methods adopted, and factor influencing the use of these methods. Although droughts, floods, hailstorms, and crop pests/diseases are major climate-induced risks in ESA. droughts are predominant in all these countries. Farm households in ESA have adopted various strategies to address climate risk, which includes changing farming practices, reducing consumption, using savings and borrowing, and seeking new employment. Farming families headed by a female, married, or an elderly member opt to change farming methods and decrease consumption, whereas they are less inclined to look for alternate livelihood options. Farming families with higher livestock endowments commonly use savings or borrow and are unlikely to change farming methods, decrease consumption, and search for alternate employment. Better-off families tend to change farming methods but are unlikely to adopt other risk coping options. Farming families with non-farm livelihood options are unlikely to change farming methods, use savings/borrowings, or decrease consumption, whereas they tend to search for alternate employment.Training on agriculture and economic status are crucial for climate change adaptation in these regions. Findings exhibit substantial differences among the study countries regarding the adoption of coping strategies. Compared to farmers in Kenya, farmers in other countries change agricultural methods to cope with climate shocks. Ethiopian farmers, compared to their Kenyan counterparts, decrease consumption to deal with climate risks, whereas, farmers in Tanzania, Malawi, and Mozambique are less likely to use this option. Similarly, the likelihood of seeking alternative employment as a risk coping strategy is lower among Ethiopian farmers, while it is higher among the farmers in other countries. (C) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rahut, DB; Aryal, JP; Marenya, P

Understanding climate-risk coping strategies among farm households: Evidence from five countries in Eastern and Southern Africa

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145236

The Anthropocene heralds a new era of heightened and unknown risks, particularly regarding the impacts of climate change. This article explores the initial phase of organizing for climate adaptation in Boston, Massachusetts, examining how multiple actors, including business, government, and community organization, are interacting as they attempt to comprehend, assess, and act on this issue. To understand this process of organizing, we develop the concept of risk regime' as a contingently stabilized system with governance, economic, and discursive dimensions. We draw from theories of risk, organizational resilience, and urban regimes and value regimes to develop the risk regime' framework, which provides a nuanced view of contestation, collaboration, and accommodation among actors with differential interests, knowledge, and influence on the process. We suggest how the character, evolution, and stabilization of the regime is influenced by competing imaginaries regarding, for example, the nature and manageability of risk, the need for radical change, and the role of markets versus regulations in addressing tensions between economic and sustainability goals. We demonstrate that the regime for adaptation has grown out of the organizational and discursive infrastructure for addressing climate mitigation, or carbon control, but that the unique character of adaptation presents different, and perhaps more difficult challenges.

Wissman-Weber, NK; Levy, DL

Climate adaptation in the Anthropocene: Constructing and contesting urban risk regimes

Organization

https://doi.org/10.1177/1350508418775812

The growing interest in climate change and related risks has triggered efforts to address both its causes and impact. Climate action is mainstreamed in various public policies in which spatial planning has a key role and operates as a coordinating framework as well as one that enables specific interventions. At the same time, land, an indispensable element of spatial planning, is gaining attention as a natural resource that is closely related to climate change. Increasing need for land protection raises the need for a renewed role of spatial planning of all types and levels. This paper examines issues of land protection related to climate change in a peri-urban area of the Thessaloniki metropolitan area in Greece and seeks to identify how the types of spatial planning contribute to land protection. It is argued that when viewing land protection from a climate adaptation perspective, a renewed relationship between the types and levels of spatial planning that demands emphasis be placed on their cooperation and the enabling of novel approaches such as nature-based solutions becomes apparent.

Thoidou, E

Spatial Planning and Climate Adaptation: Challenges of Land Protection in a Peri-Urban Area of the Mediterranean City of Thessaloniki

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su13084456

Municipal governments are increasingly promoting green climate-adaptive infrastructure projects to address climate threats and impacts while maximizing multiple socio-environmental benefits. Although these strategies are repeatedly advanced as win-win solutions for all, recent literature has drawn attention to numerous negative effects, especially the displacement and exclusion of vulnerable social groups, pointing at yet another layer of climate injustice. In this article, we focus our analysis on the experienced and/or perceived negative social effects of greening interventions for climate adaptation on historically marginalized groups through a cross-case qualitative com-parison of four neighborhoods in North American and European cities (Boston, Philadelphia, Amsterdam and Barcelona). Interviews conducted among a diverse sample of civic groups related to each neighborhood reveal that most respondents highly value green resilient infrastructures for their socio-environmental benefits. However, unless these green interventions are implemented alongside policies that guarantee equitable outcomes for all, then civic respondents mostly identify negative social impacts on marginalized residents, making those benefits short-lived. Most promi-nent negative impacts include physical displacement and the related threat of more displacement together with risks that new (green) real estate developments and resilient greening will remain exclusionary for marginalized groups. Such similar findings across different socio-political contexts point to the need for bolder policies that guarantee that investments in green climate adaptation interventions secure both environmental and social benefits in underinvested and environmentally neglected neighborhoods and mitigate the negative impacts of such interventions, namely socio-cultural and physical displacement and overall exclusionary climate protection.

Planas-Carbonell, A; Anguelovski, I; Oscilowicz, E; Shokry, G; Perez-del-Pulgar, C

From greening the climate-adaptive city to green climate gentrification? Civic perceptions of short-lived benefits and exclusionary protection in Boston, Philadelphia, Amsterdam and Barcelona

Urban Climate

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101295

With the onset of climate change resulting in more frequent hazard events and coastal inundation, communities are considering buyouts as a tool for climate adaptation. Despite a growing body of research, there has never been a systematic review of the literature on buyout programs, although our ability to implement buyouts successfully relies on a thorough understanding of buyout policy, design, implementation, and impacts. In this systematic literature review of voluntary buyouts in the United States, we distill key learnings, identify remaining gaps, present avenues for future research, and make policy recommendations. We find that the buyout literature is nascent, but coalesces around the topics of buyout experience, buyout practice and implementation, housing policy, flood reduction, and justice and equity. Recommendations for future research include an increased emphasis on theory, the contexts in which buyouts occur, longitudinal studies, and more explicit recognition of researcher and disciplinary bias.

Greer, A; Binder, SB; Zavar, E

From Hazard Mitigation to Climate Adaptation: A Review of Home Buyout Program Literature

Housing Policy Debate

https://doi.org/10.1080/10511482.2021.1931930

One of the most persistent issues affecting individuals in developing countries is the lack of access to safe drinking water and sanitary facilities. The adoption of centralized water, energy, and cost-intensive technology has proven ineffective in addressing the complex water-related challenges that have arisen as a consequence of growing urbanization in developing nations. Constructed wetlands have emerged as an effective wastewater treatment solution with natural applications. The fundamental goal of this study is to offer a complete overview of the wide variety of practices, uses, and investigations of constructed wetlands systems for eliminating different pollutants from wastewater in developing countries leading to placing them in the context of climate change, environmental resource planning, and sustainable wastewater treatment systems. CWs offer significant levels of treatment performances with hybrid systems achieving contaminant removal efficiencies up to 93.82% for total suspended solids, 85.65% for chemical oxygen demand, and 80.11% for ammonia nitrogen which is adequate with respect to other viable alternatives. In terms of Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD5), the highest elimination (84.06%) was achieved in hybrid systems when compared to Free water surface CWs (65.34%), Horizontal sub-surface CWs (75.1%), and Floating treatment wetland (55.29%). The maximum power density generation through the microbial fuel cell-based constructed wetlands ranges between 50 and 86 mW/m(2) in Bangladesh (integrated tidal flow) and 852 mW/m(3) in China (vertical flow), and the production of bioenergy has been evidenced up to 1,836.5 GJ/hector/year. Annually, wastewater treatment plant systems (WTPs) generate around a hundred times more Methane (CH4), Nitrous oxide (N2O), and carbon dioxide (CO2) than CWs. In metropolitan cities, WTPs may lead to a considerable increase in upstream land use, which could be minimized by promoting CWs in these areas. The potential utility of different CWs in protecting and preserving estuarine quality within the present regulatory framework is finally addressed in the study, emphasizing that it can balance the impacts of industrial expansions in developing countries for subsequent mitigation and adaptation to climate change.

Islam, MA; Saeed, T; Majed, N

Role of constructed wetlands in mitigating the challenges of industrial growth and climate change impacts in the context of developing countries

Frontiers In Environmental Science

https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.1065555

Background: Evidence of the effectiveness of intervention against extreme heat remains unclear, especially among children, one of the vulnerable populations. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a primary school-based intervention program against heatwave and climate change in China to provide evidence for development of policies for adaptation to climate change. Methods: Two primary schools in Dongtai City, Jiangsu Province, China, were randomly selected as intervention and control schools (CTR registration number: ChiCTR2200056005). Health education was conducted at the intervention school to raise students' awareness and capability to respond to extreme heat during May to September in 2017. Knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP) of students and their parents at both schools were investigated by questionnaire surveys before and after intervention. The changes in KAP scores after intervention were evaluated using multivariable difference-in-difference (DID) analysis, controlling for age, sex, etc. Results: The scores of knowledge, attitude, and practice of students and their parents increased by 19.9% (95%CI: 16.3%, 23.6%) and 22.5% (95%CI: 17.8%, 27.1%); 9.60% (95%CI: 5.35%, 13.9%) and 7.22% (95%CI: 0.96%, 13.5%); and 9.94% (95%CI: 8.26%, 18.3%) and 5.22% (95%CI: 0.73%, 9.71%), respectively, after intervention. The KAP score changes of boys were slightly higher than those of girls. Older students had higher score changes than younger students. For parents, the higher the education level, the greater the score change, and change in scores was greater in females than in males. All the health education activities in the program were significantly correlated with the changes in KAP scores of primary school students after intervention, especially those curricula with interesting activities and experiential learning approaches. Conclusions: Heat and health education program in primary school was an effective approach to improve cognition and behavior for both students and their parents to better adapt to heatwaves and climate change. The successful experience can be generalized to respond to the increasing extreme weather/climate events in the context of climate change, such as heatwaves, and other emergent occasions or public health education, such as the control and prevention of COVID-19.

Li, YH; Sun, B; Yang, CL; Zhuang, XH; Huang, LC; Wang, QQ; Bi, P; Wang, Y; Yao, XY; Cheng, YB

Effectiveness Evaluation of a Primary School-Based Intervention against Heatwaves in China

International Journal Of Environmental Research And Public Health

https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19052532

Due to global and regional climatic dynamics for a couple of decades, agricultural productivity, rural livelihood, and food security have been badly affected in Pakistan. This study was conducted in Punjab, Pakistan, to explore the farmers' understanding of the impacts of climate change, adaptation strategies, determinants, and benefits on agriculture using data from 1080 respondents. Perceived risks by the farmers in the rice-wheat cropping system and the cotton-wheat cropping system were weed infestation, seed rate augmented, low-quality seeds, infestation of crop diseases and pests, change of cropping pattern, increase of input use, decrease of cropping intensity and productivity, decreasing soil fertility, increasing irrigation frequency, and increase of harvesting time. To alleviate the adverse influences of climate change, the adaptation strategies used by farmers were management of crop and variety, soil and irrigation water, diversification of agriculture production systems and livelihood sources, management of fertilizer and farm operations time, spatial adaptation, access to risk reduction measures and financial assets, adoption of new technologies, institutional support, and indigenous knowledge. Moreover, the results of Binary Logistic Regression indicate that adaptation strategies are affected by different factors like age, education, household family size, off-farm income, remittances, credit access, information on climatic and natural hazards, information on weather forecasting, land acreage, the experience of growing crops and rearing of livestock, tenancy status, tube well ownership, livestock inventory, access to market information, agricultural extension services, and distance from agricultural input/output market. There is a significant difference between adapters and nonadapters. The risk management system may be created to protect crops against failures caused by extreme weather events. There is a need to develop crop varieties that are both high yielding and resistant to climate change. Moreover, cropping patterns should be revised to combat the effects of climate change. To enhance farmers' standard of living, it is necessary to provide adequate extension services and a more significant number of investment facilities. These measures will assist farmers in maintaining their standard of living and food security over the long term to adapt to the effects of climate change based on various cropping zones.

Usman, M; Ali, A; Bashir, MK; Radulescu, M; Mushtaq, K; Wudil, AH; Baig, SA; Akram, R

Do farmers' risk perception, adaptation strategies, and their determinants benefit towards climate change? Implications for agriculture sector of Punjab, Pakistan

Environmental Science And Pollution Research

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-27759-8

Rice is well adapted to a wide range of climates, but is highly susceptible to heat during flowering. However, there are uncertainties in assessing the occurrence of heat-induced spikelet sterility (HISS) and the impact of climate change. One reason is the gap between the ambient air temperature and the panicle temperature, which determines the magnitude of HISS in field studies. To improve our understanding of this gap, we established a multi-site monitoring network (MINCERnet) to measure canopy micrometeorology and heat stress in the major rice growing regions (Sub-Saharan Africa; South, Southeast, and East Asia; and the USA). MINCERnet assessed the processes that determine panicle temperature and the resulting HISS in open fields using the same cultivars ('IR64', 'N22', and 'IR52') and a standard system (MINCER) for micrometeorological monitoring under diverse climates. By using the MINCERnet data in the canopy heat-balance model (IM(2)PACT), we confirmed that the canopy and panicle transpiration and the resulting evaporative cooling strongly affected the gap between the ambient air temperature and the panicle temperature, and that the HISS rate in open fields could be predicted accurately in diverse climates by using the mean panicle temperature during the flowering hours. The oasis effect in the broad sense, that is, evaporative cooling and the increase of relative humidity, which is nested at the various levels along the continuum from the landscape to the panicle, formed temperature and relative humidity gradients along the continuum in response to different climatic conditions. The heat-balance characteristics (i.e., a stronger evaporative cooling under drier climate conditions) suggested that the risk of HISS caused by global warming will increase more in wetter climates, where panicle temperatures tended to increase. Thus, accurate relative humidity data as well as air temperature will be required, along with spatial downscaling, to permit accurate prediction of rice heat stress and yield. HISS prediction using an approach based on the panicle temperature as input for models and monitoring of canopy micrometeorology will reduce uncertainties in rice yield prediction and the response of yield to various climate change adaptation measures.

Yoshimoto, M; Fukuoka, M; Tsujimoto, Y; Matsui, T; Kobayasi, K; Saito, K; van Oort, PAJ; Inusah, BIY; Vijayalakshmi, C; Vijayalakshmi, D; Weerakoon, WMW; Silva, LC; Myint, TT; Phyo, ZC; Tian, XH; Lur, HS; Yang, CM; Tarpley, L; Manigbas, NL; Hasegawa, T

Monitoring canopy micrometeorology in diverse climates to improve the prediction of heat-induced spikelet sterility in rice under climate change

Agricultural And Forest Meteorology

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.108860

CONTEXT: Climate uncertainty challenges the livelihoods of smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa. Awareness of climate-smart agricultural (CSA) practices and access to climate-smart technologies are key factors in determining the utilization of farm and land management practices that may simultaneously decrease greenhouse gas emissions, increase the adaptive capacity of farmers, and improve food security. OBJECTIVE: Understanding how biophysical and socio-economic constraints affect the adoption of CSA practices and technologies plays an essential role in policy and intervention planning. Our objective was to identify these constraints among smallholder farmers in Taita Taveta County of Southeast Kenya across varying agro-ecological zones. METHODS: We conducted a Climate-Smart Agriculture Rapid Appraisal that consisted of four mostly genderdisaggregated smallholder farmer workshops (102 participants), a household survey (65 participants), key informant interviews (16 informants), and four transect walks. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate a dissonance in the perceived awareness of CSA practices and utilization of CSA technologies between state actors and farmers. State actors emphasize lack of awareness as a barrier to adoption, while farmers express knowledgeability regarding environmental change and climate-smart practices but are confined by limitations and restrictions posed by e.g. market mechanisms, land tenure issues,and lack of resources. These restrictions include e.g. uncertainty in product prices, lack of land ownership, scarcity of arable land, and simply lack of capital or willingness to invest. Farmers are further challenged by the emergence of new pests and human-wildlife conflicts. Our research findings are based on the contextual settings of Taita Taveta County, but the results indicate that adopting CSA practices and utilizing technologies, especially in sub-Saharan regions that are heavily based on subsistence agriculture with heterogenous agro-ecological zones, require localized and gender-responsive solutions in policy formation and planning of both agricultural extension services and development interventions that take into account the agency of the farmers. SIGNIFICANCE: This study contributes to existing climate change adaptation research by increasing our un- derstanding of how physical and socio-economic constraints can affect the adoption of new farm and land management practices, and how CSA-based intervention strategies could be restructured by local stakeholders to be more inclusive.

Autio, A; Johansson, T; Motaroki, L; Minoia, P; Pellikka, P

Constraints for adopting climate-smart agricultural practices among smallholder farmers in Southeast Kenya

Agricultural Systems

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103284

Even when they are societally relevant, scientific research results do not always contribute to policy development for solving societal problems, with science and policy often on parallel lines failing to intersect. For scientific research to be useful for decision making, it must answer questions relevant for bridging the gap to policy, and so enhance the science-policy interface (SPI). In this study, Q methodology was used to capture perspectives from multi-level stakeholders holding different viewpoints about climate change in order to strengthen the SPI for climate adaptation in Cameroon. The views expressed by stakeholders resolved into three discourses which together explained 59% of the Q-analysis variance. The first discourse explained 21% of the variance and focused on vulnerability and impacts of climate change. Under this discourse, stakeholders recognized the Sudano-Sahel and coastal zones as areas most vulnerable to climate change in Cameroon, with water resources and agriculture as the most vulnerable sectors. The second discourse explained 20% of the study variance and focused on adaptation planning. Political leadership was identified as crucially important for driving adaptation. The third discourse explained 18% of the study variance and centered on policy incentives. Key policy areas that can be put in place to raise the adaptive capacity of the population were identified. Proposed policies included integrated water resources management (IWRM) and the distribution of farm inputs to farmers to boost agricultural production. Under each discourse, stakeholders proposed a series of research areas that could be used as a starting point to strengthen the SPI initiative in Cameroon.

Nkiaka, E; Lovett, JC

Strengthening the science-policy interface for climate adaptation: stakeholder perceptions in Cameroon

Regional Environmental Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1441-4

Agricultural adaptation to climate change includes changes in agricultural management practices which will be quite effective in reducing the probability of crop failure and improving the socio economic condition of farmers. Knowledge about the decision making process of farmers can help in identifying the determinants of adaptation to them. It is very important to model the farmers' behaviour and decision making process to answer the reasons for farmers' suicides and inequalities arising out within the farmers belonging to same group. Our study identifies the factors responsible for increasing inequalities, crop failure and differential decision making capabilities of farmers by surveying 400 farmers in eighteen villages of Maharashtra, India. We analysed how combination of various factors such as social, economic, infrastructural and institutional affect the decision making process of farmers which brings out the novelty of the present work that can be replicated across a spectrum of such studies. Further, different adaptation options were categorized into the most and least preferred adaptive strategies by considering the farmers' perception. Our work has also identified which particular factor i.e. climatic, institutional, infrastructural or socio-economic is the major challenge towards the adaptation of farmers. The study has followed logit model in investigating the farmers' adaptation to multiple stressors. The study has also addressed the on-going argument regarding the scale of policy formulation i.e., whether policy formulation should take place at micro scale (Decentralization) or at larger region (State/National) level. Findings revealed that farmers perceive climate variability in terms of monsoon and temperature variability and respond as per their indigenous knowledge and experience. Model results revealed that institutional, social and climatic factors should be the focus point of government for improving the adaptation profile of farmers.

Swami, D; Parthasarathy, D

A multidimensional perspective to farmers' decision making determines the adaptation of the farming community

Journal Of Environmental Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110487

In fire-prone areas such the Mediterranean basin, wildfire risk means a societal challenge. Governments in modern welfare states have generally addressed it through a zero fire policy, focusing on suppression and professionalization. Such approach provides security to local populations, who in turn may detach from the socio-ecologic phenomenon of wildfire and become passive actors. In the face of increasingly virulent wildfires, local communities are often not prepared with consequent damages and casualties. Yet, some regions show pro-active locals organizing their efforts to tackle wildfires. These fire volunteer groups suppose a social innovation in rural communities that help in their adaptation to climate change. Going beyond homeowners' preparedness, the actions of volunteers range from supporting firefighters' efforts, first attack and/or year-round prevention. The investigation of these communities is in its infancy despite its practitioner and policy interest. In this study, we shed light on this civil society engagement across different Mediterranean forest settings, namely from predominantly public forest ownership in Greece, to predominantly private in Catalonia (Spain) and virtually entirely private in Portugal. Collecting data through a survey, the type of activities of these volunteer groups, their relations with fire and local actors (i.e. social capital) and trajectory have been analysed to find possible trends. Statistical results show that their portfolio of activities relates to their group size (i.e. available human resources) and their structural and relational social capital. Preliminary insights show an improvement in trust with fire and forest actors owing to the fire volunteer group establishment. No evidence has been found of forest area covered by fire volunteers, recent fire experience or variety in members' profile to affect the type of activities. The results are discussed in the frame of social capital theory and suggestions for further research are put forward.

Górriz-Mifsud, E; Burns, M; Govigli, VM

Civil society engaged in wildfires: Mediterranean forest fire volunteer groupings

Forest Policy And Economics

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2019.03.007

The Southwest Coastal people of Bangladesh have introduced Tidal River Management (TRM) as an environmentally acceptable water resource management practice based on their indigenous knowledge of water logging of low lying coastal land. TRM helps to address problems resulting from different anthropogenic and structural development activities, and it has been successful in helping coastal communities to adapt to climate change and rising sea level vulnerability by forming new land in Tidal Basins. Hence, it is essential to measure sustainability impacts of TRM from the environmental, socio-economic and institutional perspectives. Therefore, firstly, the study identifies sustainability indicators of TRM considering ecosystem services and secondly, develops an inclusive conceptual framework to understand the important impacts of each indicator at various spatial and temporal scales. The conceptual framework is followed by the construction of a Sustainability Index of Tidal River Management (SITRM). It has advantages over the Ramsar Convention framework (2007) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) framework (2012) to measure water sustainability as it includes a sustainable model to project future vulnerability of the community, river and Tidal Basin, emphasizing on climate change issues. It also involves trade-offs analysis, livelihood analysis and SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis for a complete impact assessment to enable decision-makers to focus on those services most likely to be of risks and weaknesses or opportunities and strengths for the sustainability of TRM. Moreover, the framework is a useful guide for policymakers in identifying the sustainability impacts of TRM so that they can choose best coping strategies for coastal people to effectively deal with adverse effects of water-logging and undesired climatic events as well as environmental and socio-economic changes in coastal areas.

Al Masud, MM; Moni, NN; Azadi, H; Van Passel, S

Sustainability impacts of tidal river management: Towards a conceptual framework

Ecological Indicators

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2017.10.022

Accurate and comprehensive modelling aimed at investigating the impact of climate change on rainfed crop yields is of great importance due to the interconnected issues of water scarcity and food security. Because the process-based and statistical approaches to simulating crop yields are different in nature, a comparison between them is needed. This study investigates the accuracy of crop yield simulations in the historical period as well as future projections using two modelling approaches: 1) a process-based approach employing the Soil and Water Assessment Tool+ (SWAT+) model, and 2) a statistical approach employing a data-driven model, Feed Forward Back Propagation Neural Network (FFBPNN) over a medium-sized catchment in north-western Poland. The application of two potential evapotranspiration methods (Penman-Monteith and Hargreaves) in SWAT+ permitted calibration (2004-2011) and validation (2012-2019) of runoff and yields of winter wheat and spring barley. Different combinations of climatic parameters with a drought index based on Joint Deficit Index were applied to simulate and project rainfed crop yields (winter wheat, barley, potato, rye, rapeseed, sugar beets, cereals, maize for grain, maize for green forage, pulses) with FFBPNN. The results reveal that adding the new drought index helped increase the FFBPNN performance. This approach showed that future yields of the studied crops would slightly increase under RCP8.5 by 2060. Winter wheat and spring barley projections from SWAT+ showed very small changes using both the Penman-Monteith and Hargreaves method. Policy-wise, the results should be of interest to climate change adaptation practitioners and food security experts. Future studies should aim at more thorough investigation of the role of the downscaling technique and extreme events, as well as the effect of elevated CO2 on future crop yields.

Eini, MR; Salmani, H; Piniewski, M

Comparison of process-based and statistical approaches for simulation and projections of rainfed crop yields

Agricultural Water Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.108107

Home gardening is promoted as an adaptation strategy to ameliorate the increasing food insecurity from climate change impacts among subsistence farming families in rural sub-Saharan Africa. Yet, the geographic distribution of home gardens, their setup, management, and the effects on nutrition outcomes have not been fully described. This scoping review aimed to map and synthesize recent evidence on home gardening for two exemplar countries: Burkina Faso and Kenya. Between June and August 2020, we searched, screened, and extracted evidence about home garden projects in both countries, following the PRISMA guidelines for scoping reviews. Peer-reviewed scientific publications, and gray literature in English and French that reported about subsistence horticulture in rural settings of Burkina Faso or Kenya were included. The characteristics of the documents and the data pertaining to our research objectives were extracted into predefined spreadsheets. The data were synthesized in the form of a narrative review. Our search yielded 949 documents, of which 20 documents were included in the synthesis (Burkina Faso: 8, Kenya: 12). While the gardens varied in composition and size, the majority provided green leafy vegetables and indigenous horticultural crops. The challenges for successful home garden implementation comprised unfavorable climatic conditions, access to and affordability of inputs, water and land, and lack of know-how. We identified trends for improved food security, diet quality, and nutritional status among the target populations. This scoping review found that there is limited evidence on home garden practices in rural Burkina Faso and Kenya. To enhance the sustainability of home gardens, research and resources should he invested in codesigning context-specific home gardening projects. Pending rigorous impact evaluation, home gardens appear to be a promising tool for climate change adaptation while simultaneously improving food security and the nutritional situation among women and young children in these two exemplar countries of sub-Saharan Africa.

Hansen, LS; Sorgho, R; Mank, I; Schwerdtle, PN; Agure, E; Bärnighausen, T; Danquah, I

Home gardening in sub-Saharan Africa: A scoping review on practices and nutrition outcomes in rural Burkina Faso and Kenya

Food And Energy Security

https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.388

Climate change challenges agricultural production in Eastern Canada by affecting water resource availability. Farmers' adoption of improved water management practices and technologies can play an important part in the region's climate change adaptation strategy. To facilitate the diffusion of agricultural beneficial management practices (BMPs), it is essential to examine the factors that influence farmers' decision-making, and the barriers and facilitators of adoption. While determinants of adoption have been studied extensively, past research suggests that they are context dependent and that a gap exists in relation to understanding how BMP characteristics are perceived and how they shape adoption. Therefore, this article identifies some of the key factors in the adoption of improved water management systems in Ontario and Que ' bec by focusing on differences between adopters and non-adopters. This study uses data from a survey of 70 fruit and vegetable growers. Results show that Canadian growers find important being good stewards of the land - being interested in minimizing their farms' impact on the environment and making good use of scarce resources. Farmers also believe society should help support the costs associated with safeguarding the environment. Growers interested in adopting the BMPs were likely to have less farming experience, diverse farming goals, higher educational attainment, and a higher degree of specialization in the production of tomatoes, cranberries or onions. While the majority of growers perceived the BMPs to be profitable, a better alternative and having capacity to reduce water use and improve yields, growers not interested in adopting these BMPs identified several issues that in their view act as barriers - initial cost of investment, and market instability. Policy responses aimed at enhancing diffusion of the BMPs, can be better targeted on priority regions and growers, incorporating in their communication strategy messages that resonate with growers' needs and take note of concerns they raise.

Bogdan, AM; Kulshreshtha, SN

Canadian horticultural growers' perceptions of beneficial management practices for improved on-farm water management

Journal Of Rural Studies

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2021.08.020

East Asia is the one of the hotspot regions with too much reactive nitrogen (N) inputs from anthropogenic sources. Here, we evaluated historical total inorganic N (TIN) load from land to sea through the rivers surrounding the East China sea using biogeochemical model 'VISIT' combined with a newly developed VISIT Off-line River Nitrogen scheme (VISIToRN). VISIT calculated N cycling in both natural and agricultural ecosystems and VISIToRN calculated inorganic N transport and riverine denitrification through the river channels at half degree spatial resolution. Between 1961 and 2010, the estimated TIN load from land to the sea surrounding the East China Sea increased from 2.7 Tg-N Year(-1) to 5.5 Tg-N Year(-1), a twofold increase, while the anthropogenic N input to the East China Sea basin (N deposition, N fertilizer, manure, and human sewage) increased from 12.9 Tg-N Year(-1) to 36.9 Tg-N Year(-1), an increase of about 3 times. This difference in the rate of increase is due in large part to the terrestrial nitrogen budget, and the results of the model balance indicate that TIN load to rivers has been suppressed by improvements in fertilizer application rates, harvesting on agricultural land, and nitrogen accumulation in forests. The results of the model balance showed that the increase rate of nitrogen runoff from Chinese rivers has been declining since 2000. In our estimation by VISIToRN, the amount of nitrogen removed by river denitrification in the river channel before the mouth is not negligible, ranging from 1.6 Tg-N Year(-1) to 2.16 Tg-N Year(-1). The N load from agricultural sources is still significant and needs to be further reduced. TIN load tended to increase in years with high precipitation. In order to effectively reduce TIN load, it is necessary to consider climate change-adaptive agricultural N management.

Nishina, K; Ito, A; Zhou, F; Yan, X; Hayashi, S; Winiwarter, W

Historical trends of riverine nitrogen loading from land to the East China Sea: a model-based evaluation

Environmental Research Communications

https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ac1ce8

Uncertainty in long-term projections of future climate can be substantial and presents a major challenge to climate change adaptation planning. This is especially so for projections of future precipitation in most tropical regions, at the spatial scale of many adaptation decisions in water-related sectors. Attempts have been made to constrain the uncertainty in climate projections, based on the recognised premise that not all of the climate models openly available perform equally well. However, there is no agreed 'good practice' on how to weight climate models. Nor is it clear to what extent model weighting can constrain uncertainty in decision-relevant climate quantities. We address this challenge, for climate projection information relevant to 'high stakes' investment decisions across the 'water-energy-food' sectors, using two case-study river basins in Tanzania and Malawi. We compare future climate risk profiles of simple decision-relevant indicators for water-related sectors, derived using hydrological and water resources models, which are driven by an ensemble of future climate model projections. In generating these ensembles, we implement a range of climate model weighting approaches, based on context-relevant climate model performance metrics and assessment. Our case-specific results show the various model weighting approaches have limited systematic effect on the spread of risk profiles. Sensitivity to climate model weighting is lower than overall uncertainty and is considerably less than the uncertainty resulting from bias correction methodologies. However, some of the more subtle effects on sectoral risk profiles from the more 'aggressive' model weighting approaches could be important to investment decisions depending on the decision context. For application, model weighting is justified in principle, but a credible approach should be very carefully designed and rooted in robust understanding of relevant physical processes to formulate appropriate metrics.

Kolusu, SR; Siderius, C; Todd, MC; Bhave, A; Conway, D; James, R; Washington, R; Geressu, R; Harou, JJ; Kashaigili, JJ

Sensitivity of projected climate impacts to climate model weighting: multi-sector analysis in eastern Africa

Climatic Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-02991-8

Wind is among the most important climatic elements. Its characteristics are determinant for a wide range of natural processes and human activities. However, ongoing climate change is modifying these characteristics, which may have important implications. Climatic changes on wind speed and direction, wind shear intensity, and helicity, over the 21st century and for 26 cities in the Iberian Peninsula, under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 anthropogenic forcing scenario, are assessed. For this purpose, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used, with initial and boundary conditions being obtained from simulations with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR) climate model and ERA-Interim reanalysis. Quantile-quantile bias correction was applied to the simulated data prior to subsequent analysis. Overall, the results hint at a reduction in the intensity of both near-surface and 850 hPa (approx. 5%) wind in the future. Nevertheless, for the 300 hPa level, a decrease in summertime wind speed is accompanied by a slight increase in the remaining months. Furthermore, significant increases in the number of occurrences of extreme wind events were also identified, mainly in northwestern Iberia. For wind shear, an intensity increase is projected throughout most of the year (approx. 5% in the upper quantiles), mainly in southwestern Iberia. Helicity is also projected to undergo a strengthening, mostly in summer months and over southwestern Iberia, with greater emphasis on events of longer duration and intensity. This study highlights some important projected changes in the wind structure and profile under future anthropogenic forcing. This knowledge may support decisions on climate change adaptation options and risk reduction of several major sectors, such as energy and aviation, thus deserving further research.

Martins, J; Rocha, A; Viceto, C; Pereira, SC; Santos, JA

Future Projections for Wind, Wind Shear and Helicity in the Iberian Peninsula

Atmosphere

https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11091001

Use of Urban Underground Space (UUS) has been growing significantly in the world's biggest and wealthiest cities. UUS has been long acknowledged to be important to the urban development agenda: sustainability, resilience, livability, and creating a better urban environment in particular. These issues are traditionally monitored using urban indicators, however UUS has not been properly included and considered in urban indicator lists (sets or systems) yet - the gap this paper is aiming to bridge. The paper reviews existing approaches to the composition of urban indicator lists, highlighting indicator types, challenges related to data collection, and agencies that are concerned with the issue. Further the paper has identified the importance of UUS inclusion in the lists that give integrated assessment and monitor urban sustainability, resilience, climate change adaptation and mitigation, as well as progress towards smart, livable, and compact cities. Existing global quantitative data on UUS have been examined in 8 cities; and three key indicators (descriptors) were suggested to monitor UUS use: Developed UUS volume (m(3)); UUS use density (m(3)/m(2)); and Developed UUS volume per person (m(3)/person). Current average UUS use densities in cities are identified as up to about 0.05 (m(3)/m(2)) (which can be interpreted as a virtual depth of UUS use of 5 cm), and the developed UUS volume per person is up to about 10 m(3)/person; while city central areas (central business districts) can have a virtual depth of developed UUS of several metres (m(3)/m(2)). Compatibility, comparability, uniformity, and sustained monitoring of urban indicators data (including UUS indicators) found to be posing significant challenges to the research across geographies, and industry/economic sectors. (C) 2015 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Bobylev, N

Underground space as an urban indicator: Measuring use of subsurface

Tunnelling And Underground Space Technology

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2015.10.024

Climate compatible development (CCD) has emerged as a new concept that bridges climate change adaptation, mitigation and community-based development. Progress towards CCD requires multi-stakeholder, multi-sector working and the development of partnerships between actors who may not otherwise have worked together. This creates challenges and opportunities that require careful examination at project and institutional levels and necessitates the sharing of experiences between different settings. In this paper, we draw on the outcomes from a multi-stakeholder workshop held in Mozambique in 2012, the final in a series of activities in a regional project assessing emerging CCD partnerships across southern Africa. The workshop involved policymakers, researchers and representatives from NGOs and the private sector. We employ a content analysis of workshop notes and presentations to identify the progress and challenges in moving four case study countries (the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe) towards CCD pathways, by exploring experiences from both project and policy levels. To advance institutional support for the development of successful CCD policies, practices and partnerships, we conclude that there is a need for: (a) institutional development at the national level to strengthen coordination and more clearly define roles and responsibilities across sectors, based on the identification of capacity and knowledge gaps; (b) partnership development, drawing on key strengths and competences of different stakeholders and emphasising the roles of the private sector and traditional authorities; (c) learning and knowledge-sharing through national and regional fora; and (d) development of mechanisms that permit more equitable and transparent distribution of costs and benefits. These factors can facilitate development of multi-stakeholder, multi-level partnerships that are grounded in community engagement from the outset, helping to translate CCD policy statements into on-the-ground action.

Stringer, LC; Dougill, AJ; Dyer, JC; Vincent, K; Fritzsche, F; Leventon, J; Falcao, MP; Manyakaidze, P; Syampungani, S; Powell, P; Kalaba, G

Advancing climate compatible development: lessons from southern Africa

Regional Environmental Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0533-4

Capacity development has been regarded as one of many measures to empower the abilities of nations to adapt to a changing climate. Promoting public engagement in water conservation, especially among young people since they will be leading decision making in the near future, is one effective strategy for adapting to the changing climate. This research presented a water footprint adaptation (WF) approach which attempted to link climate adaptation and capacity development with saving water strategy. The approach was tested in cooperation with two universities in Shaanxi province aiming to develop a starting point for WF evaluation and develop an improvement response. The results showed that the college students in our samples reduced their direct and indirect water footprints by 27.39% and 6.50%, respectively, in the post-intervention phase. The evaluation of the improvements proved that the WF approach to be efficient, the awareness of the college students on the matter could be increased. Additionally, the findings of the research indicated that the college students became change agent, expressing the desire to act as multipliers and to help the movement and spread of important knowledge about methods for alleviating water stress and about vulnerability to the changing climate. As expected, the awareness of water scarcity and perceptions of climate change had statistically significant effects on the water footprints, which was consistent with our hypothesis. Our approach helped participants develop capacity by revealing the linkage between their local level actions and the various aspects of adaptation to changing climate at the global level. This strategy will provide a comparative basis for water policy makers to adopt appropriate strategies to address matters related to water shortages and finally enhance sustainable adaptation to changing context.

Mu, L; Liu, YH; Wang, CC; Qu, XJ; Yu, YC

Enhancing capacity building to climate adaptation and water conservation among Chinese young people

Environmental Science And Pollution Research

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-12427-6

Even though real options analysis (ROA) is often thought as the best tool available for evaluating flexible strategies, there are profound problems with the assumptions underpinning ROA rendering it unsuitable for use in supporting planning and decision-making on climate adaptation. In the face of dynamic and deep uncertainty about the future, flexible strategies which can be adapted in response to how the uncertainty is resolving are attractive. Traditional cost-benefit analysis cannot account for the value created through optionality. ROA sets out to amend this. There are however several profound problems with how ROA tries to do this. It is typically not clear what is the baseline plan, without options, against which value is to be estimated. Different baselines significantly change option value. Even if option value can unequivocally be established for a given scenario, ROA relies on expected values over a set of scenarios. First, this requires assigning weights, or probabilities, to scenarios. Given the long-time horizon involved in climate adaptation, these probabilities are meaningless. Second, the expected value over a set of scenarios need not obtain in any single scenario and is thus not a meaningful summary of option value. This article is categorized under: Climate Economics > Iterative Risk-Management Policy Portfolios

Kwakkel, JH

Is real options analysis fit for purpose in supporting climate adaptation planning and decision-making?

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Climate Change

https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.638

Principle of method is in the analysis of external environment for key factors and their combining for creating alternative development scenarios. Alternatives formed in the scenario approach allow identifying an aggregate of possible directions of environment development and thus create a basis for making strategic decisions. This paper considers theoretical and methodological basis of scenario planning, including various approaches and methods of scenario formation. Experience of this method application in Kazakhstan and abroad was studied. The paper identifies natural factors affecting water-supply conditions. Advisability of forming external environment development scenarios was justified for further development of alternative strategies for hydrogeological survey improvement. Based on the algorithm of forming and transboundary levels until 2030 of the proposed principles, scenarios were developed for creating plans of sustainable water-supply under conditions of climatic and anthropogenic changes at the regional, national and transboundary levels. In order to develop strategies and scenarios, as well as to identify vulnerabilities and negative impacts of climate change, it is necessary to have complete information and data on the entire basin. Therefore, it is necessary to collect and share the necessary information, data and models related to the basin as a whole, as well as all components of the water cycle. Managing the process of adaptation to climate change, it is necessary to monitor the situation and regularly update assessments, climate change scenarios and forecasts of the state of the water balance. Climate change should be considered as one of the main causes of changes in the environment of water basins, and as one of the many factors that put pressure on water resources. Therefore, adaptation scenarios for specific basins should take into account not only climate change, but also changes in the demographic situation, economic growth dynamics, dietary preferences, and so on. These scenarios should be developed with the greatest possible cooperation with neighboring countries, and most importantly, using data and models that are consistent with them.

Mukhamedzhanov, MA; Sagin, J; Rakhimov, TA; Arystanbaev, YO

DEVELOPING SCENARIOS OF SUSTAINABLE WATER-SUPPLY FOR KAZAKHSTAN POPULATION AND ECONOMY UNDER CLIMATIC AND ANTHROPOGENIC CHANGES AT THE REGIONAL, NATIONAL, AND TRANSBOUNDARY LEVELS UNTIL 2030

News Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The Republic Of Kazakhstan-Series Of Geology And Technical Sciences

https://doi.org/10.32014/2020.2518-170X.48

This study presents the use of a whole farm model in a participatory modelling research approach to examine the sensitivity of four contrasting case study farms to a likely climate change scenario. The newly generated information was used to support discussions with the participating farmers in the search for options to design more profitable and sustainable farming systems in Queensland Australia. The four case studies contrasted in key systems characteristics: opportunism in decision making, i.e. flexible versus rigid crop rotations; function, i.e. production of livestock or crops; and level of intensification, i.e. dryland versus irrigated agriculture. Tested tactical and strategic changes under a baseline and climate change scenario (CCS) involved changes in the allocation of land between cropping and grazing enterprises, alternative allocations of limited irrigation water across cropping enterprises, and different management rules for planting wheat and sorghum in rainfed cropping. The results show that expected impacts from a likely climate change scenario were evident in the following increasing order: the irrigated cropping farm case study, the cropping and grazing farm, the more opportunistic rainfed cropping farm and the least opportunistic rainfed cropping farm. We concluded that in most cases the participating farmers were operating close to the efficiency frontier (i.e. in the relationship between profits and risks). This indicated that options to adapt to climate change might need to evolve from investments in the development of more innovative cropping and grazing systems and/or transformational changes on existing farming systems. We expect that even though assimilating expected changes in climate seems to be rather intangible and premature for these farmers, as innovations are developed, adaptation is likely to follow quickly. The multiple interactions among farm management components in complex and dynamic farm businesses operating in a variable and changing climate, make the use of whole farm participatory modelling approaches valuable tools to quantify benefits and trade-offs from alternative farming systems designs in the search for improved profitability and resilience. Crown Copyright (c) 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rodriguez, D; Cox, H; DeVoil, P; Power, B

A participatory whole farm modelling approach to understand impacts and increase preparedness to climate change in Australia

Agricultural Systems

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2013.04.003

The Himalaya Plateau including Nepal is 'greening up' that has important implications to ecosystem services such as water supply, carbon sequestration, and local livelihoods. Understanding the combined causes behind greening is critical for effective policy makings in forest management and climate change adaptation towards achieving sustainable development goals. This national scale study comprehensively examined the natural and anthropogenic drivers of the long-term trend of vegetation dynamics across Nepal by correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis. We integrated multiple sources of data including global satellite-based leaf area index (LAI), climate data, landcover data, and forest land management information. Our study reveals a remarkable annual mean LAI increase of 22% (0.009 m(2) m(-2) yr(-1)) (p < 0.05) from 1982 to 2020, with an acceleration in the rate of increase to 0.016 m(2) m(-2) yr(-1) (p < 0.05) after 2004. The community forestry (CF) program, forest area changes, and soil moisture availability accounted for 40%, 12%, and 10% of LAI temporal variability, respectively. Our analysis found soil moisture and forest area changes to be the primary drivers of the greening trend before 2004, while CF and forest expansion were the dominant factors thereafter. Additionally, interannual vegetation dynamics were significantly influenced by winter precipitation, incoming solar radiation, and pre-monsoon soil moisture. The projections based on four Earth System Models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 suggest that Nepal's greening trend is expected to continue at a rate of 0.009 m(2) m(-2) yr(-1) (p < 0.05) throughout the 21st century. We conclude that forest management program (CF) amid climate change that alters water and energy conditions have enhanced land greening, posing both opportunities and risks to ecosystem services in Nepal. This study provides much needed national-level information for developing forest management policies and designing Nature-based Solutions to respond to climate change and increasing demands for ecosystem services in Nepal.

Gao, SS; Wang, L; Hao, L; Sun, G

Community forestry dominates the recent land greening amid climate change in Nepal

Environmental Research Letters

https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf8de

The fragile ecology of the Yellow River basin (YRB) is vulnerable to global warming and human activities. As the second largest river in China, the YRB covers the subhumid, semi-arid, arid and alpine climate zones, with considerably spatial differences in vegetation cover (VC), thus demonstrating substantial variations in response to climate change. In this study, characteristics of VC variations in different climate zones of the YRB during 1982-2019 were analysed, impacts of climate change and human activities on VC variations were identified, and possible VC variations in the future were projected under different climate scenarios. Results show that NDVI in the YRB significantly increased at a rate of 2.3 x 10(-3) year(-1) from 1982 to 2019, especially in the middle reaches of the YRB. Temperature is the main driver of VC variations in the source region of the YRB (alpine zone), wherein the warming trend contributes to the greening. The internal variability of VC is also influenced by temperature, with a marginal effect of precipitation minus evaporation (P - E). In the middle and lower reaches of the YRB consisting of arid, semi-arid, and subhumid zones, VC benefited only from the warming trend and had a less relationship with the internal variability of temperature, whereas the internal variability of VC was influenced by P - E and had a weaker relationship with the P - E trend. Contributions of climate change to VC variations in the source region and middle and lower reaches of the YRB are approximately 62%, 42%, and 27%, respectively. Human activities considerably impact the ecological environment but mostly play a positive role. In the future, VC will increase in the YRB, especially under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, and VC reveals the most prominent changes in the lower reaches. This study suggests that climate change might be favourable to VC in YRB, and emphasizes that human activities should adapt to climate change in an orderly manner.

Yang, JT; Yang, K; Zhang, FM; Wang, CH

Contributions of natural and anthropogenic factors to historical changes in vegetation cover and its future projections in the Yellow River basin, China

International Journal Of Climatology

https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8213

A New Song for Coastal Fisheries, a strategy and roadmap produced through a participatory workshop facilitated by the Secretariat of the Pacific Community, calls upon Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs) to ensure strong and up-to-date management policy, legislation, and planning for coastal fisheries. While climate change is not a core focus of the roadmap, the call of A New Song presents a unique opportunity to draft new or revised fishery legislation with climate principles in mind. In light of observed and predicted physical, chemical, and biological changes in the-region's waters-as-a result of climate change, elimate-ready legislation should promote effective, sustainable management of marine resources to maintain resilience to human and environmental drivers. Recent policy documents such as A New Song and the FAO's Voluntary Guidelines for Securing Sustainable Small-Scale Fisheries provide guidance that can direct legislators in this work. This paper distills the guidance from A New Song and the FAO Guidelines into twelve benchmarks and conducts a coarse analysis of how well existing legislation in Pacific Island nations meets these benchmarks. While both A New Song and the FAO Guidelines mention the importance of mitigating and adapting to climate change, they are light on specifics. Considerations specific to climate change and its associated effects should also be incorporated where new or revised legislation is necessary. This paper suggests that to effectively implement the benchmarks of A New Song and the FAO Guidelines under a changing climate, legislation must allow management flexibility in the face of environmental change, ensure that scientific understanding of climate effects supports management decisions, and minimize adverse effects of climate change on the lives, livelihoods, and rights of communities. While acknowledging that most adaptation planning will occur at the scale of sub-national policies, strategies, and plans, this paper focuses on the capacity of new or revised legislation as called for by A New Song to affect adaptive capacity in Pacific island coastal fisheries.

Gourlie, D; Davis, R; Govan, H; Marshman, J; Hanich, Q

Performing A New Song: Suggested Considerations for Drafting Effective Coastal Fisheries Legislation Under Climate Change

Marine Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2017.06.012

This study relates changes in social vulnerability of 20 counties on the northern coasts of the Persian Gulf (PG) and the Gulf of Oman (GO) over a 30-year period (1988-2017) to changing socio-economic conditions and environmental (climate) hazard. Social vulnerability in 2030, 2040 and 2050 is predicted based on the RCP8.5 climate change scenario that projects drought intensities and rising sea levels. Social vulnerability was based on the three dimensions of sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity using 18 socio-economic and five climate indicators identified by experts. All but one indicator related very strongly to the dimension it sought to represent. Despite improvements in adaptive capacity over time, social vulnerability increased between 1988 and 2017 and rates of change accelerated after change point years that occurred between 1998 and 2002 in most counties. Extrapolating past changes of each indicator over time enabled forecasts of social vulnerability in the future. While social variability decreased between 2017 and 2030, it increased again between 2030 and 2050. The lowest future social vulnerability is expected along the eastern PG coast, the greatest along the western PG and the GO. The worsening of socio-economic indicators contributed to increased sensitivity, and increased drought intensities plus the expected rise in sea levels will lead to social vulnerabilities in 2050 comparable to present levels. Between 1.4 and 1.7 M people will live in areas that are likely submerged by water in the future. About 80% of these people live in six counties with variable social vulnerabilities. While counties with lower social variabilities migh/be better able to cope with the challenges posed by climate change, adaptation programs to enhance the resilience of the residents in these and the remaining counties along the PG and the GO need to be implemented soon to avoid uncontrolled mass migration of millions of people from the region. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mafi-Gholami, D; Jaafari, A; Zenner, EK; Kamari, AN; Bui, DT

Vulnerability of coastal communities to climate change: Thirty-year trend analysis and prospective prediction for the coastal regions of the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140305

On a conceptual and normative level, the debate around transformation in the context of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation has been rising sharply over the recent years. Yet, whether and how transformation occurs in the messy realities of policy and action, and what separates it from other forms of risk reduction, is far from clear. Jakarta appears to be the perfect example to study these questions. It is amongst the cities with the highest flood risk in the world. Its flood hazard is driven by land subsidence, soil sealing, changes in river discharge, andincreasinglysea level rise. As all of these trends are set to continue, Jakarta's flood hazard is expected to intensify in the future. Designing and implementing large-scale risk reduction and adaption measures therefore has been a priority of risk practitioners and policy-makers at city and national level. Against this background, the paper draws on a document analysis and original empirical household survey data to review and evaluate current adaptation measures and to analyze in how far they describe a path that is transformational from previous risk reduction approaches. The results show that the focus is clearly on engineering solutions, foremost in the Giant Sea Wall project. The project is likely to transform the city's flood hydrology. However, it cements rather than transforms the current risk management paradigm which gravitates around the goal of controlling flood symptoms, rather than addressing their largely anthropogenic root causes. The results also show that the planned measures are heavily contested due to concerns about ecological impacts, social costs, distributional justice, public participation, and long-term effectiveness. On the outlook, the results therefore suggest that the more the flood hazard intensifies in the future, the deeper a societal debate will be needed about the desired pathway in flood risk reduction and overall development planningparticularly with regards to the accepted levels of transformation, such as partial retreat from the most flood-affected areas.

Garschagen, M; Surtiari, GAK; Harb, M

Is Jakarta's New Flood Risk Reduction Strategy Transformational?

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su10082934

Reducing uncertainty in data inputs at relevant spatial scales can improve tidal marsh forecasting models, and their usefulness in coastal climate change adaptation decisions. The Marsh Equilibrium Model (MEM), a one-dimensional mechanistic elevation model, incorporates feedbacks of organic and inorganic inputs to project elevations under sea-level rise scenarios. We tested the feasibility of deriving two key MEM inputs-average annual suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and aboveground peak biomass-from remote sensing data in order to apply MEM across a broader geographic region. We analyzed the precision and representativeness (spatial distribution) of these remote sensing inputs to improve understanding of our study region, a brackish tidal marsh in San Francisco Bay, and to test the applicable spatial extent for coastal modeling. We compared biomass and SSC models derived from Landsat 8, DigitalGlobe WorldView-2, and hyperspectral airborne imagery. Landsat 8-derived inputs were evaluated in a MEM sensitivity analysis. Biomass models were comparable although peak biomass from Landsat 8 best matched field-measured values. The Portable Remote Imaging Spectrometer SSC model was most accurate, although a Landsat 8 time series provided annual average SSC estimates. Landsat 8-measured peak biomass values were randomly distributed, and annual average SSC (30 mg/L) was well represented in the main channels (IQR: 29-32 mg/L), illustrating the suitability of these inputs across the model domain. Trend response surface analysis identified significant diversion between field and remote sensing-based model runs at 60 yr due to model sensitivity at the marsh edge (80-140 cm NAVD88), although at 100 yr, elevation forecasts differed less than 10 cm across 97% of the marsh surface (150-200 cm NAVD88). Results demonstrate the utility of Landsat 8 for landscape-scale tidal marsh elevation projections due to its comparable performance with the other sensors, temporal frequency, and cost. Integration of remote sensing data with MEM should advance regional projections of marsh vegetation change by better parameterizing MEM inputs spatially. Improving information for coastal modeling will support planning for ecosystem services, including habitat, carbon storage, and flood protection.

Byrd, KB; Windham-Myers, L; Leeuw, T; Downing, B; Morris, JT; Ferner, MC

Forecasting tidal marsh elevation and habitat change through fusion of Earth observations and a process model

Ecosphere

https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.1582

The biggest single threat to ecology and biodiversity is human-induced climate change. This study assesses ethics and attitudes in an African context for coping with climate change. This assessment takes place within an ethical-practical framework functioning within the mutuality model of interreligious dialogue. Christianity and Shona religion are brought into dialogue with one another to create a conversation on how to deal with ecology. As the main source of livelihood in Zimbabwe and the whole of Africa, agriculture has been affected by climatic changes. Disease outbreaks, floods, and droughts are on the rise since the world is experiencing severe temperature rise. In addressing the ecological crisis religious considerations must be taken into account. The pivotal role of religion in issues of climate change and environmental conservation hinges on religious ethics and religion's ability to inspire its adherents to have environmentally friendly attitudes. Christianity and Shona religion can collaborate on addressing ecological problems since they have shared sets of ethics.

Beyers, J; Muza, K

Christianity and Shona Religion and Ecology An Ethical-Practical Perspective

Journal Of Religion In Africa

https://doi.org/10.1163/15700666-12340206

The risk of pluvial flooding, heat stress and drought is increasing due to climate change. To increase urban resilience to extreme weather events, it is essential to combine green and blue infrastructure and link enhanced storage capacity in periods of water surplus with moments of water shortage as well as water availability with heat stress. 'Blue-green measures' is a collective term for sustainable green and blue infrastructure that utilises underlying ecosystem functions to deliver multiple benefits: for example, cooling via evapotranspiration, water storage for heavy rainfall events, discharge peak attenuation, seasonal water storage, and groundwater recharge. Measures contribute most to climate adaptation when implemented in combinations. Such packages of blue-green measures capitalize upon the synergistic interactions between ecosystem functions and hence enhance multiple vulnerability reduction capacities. Moreover, combining blue-green measures enables using their unique potential at different spatial scales and establishing hydrologic connectivity. This paper proposes a framework for a planning support system and a tool to select adaptation measures to support urban planners in collaboratively finding site-specific sets of blue-green measures for a particular urban reconstruction project. With the proposed framework users can evaluate appropriateness of specific adaptation measures for a particular location and compose effective packages of blue-green measures to handle flooding, drought and heat stress. It is concluded that the framework: 1) enables incorporating knowledge on urban climate adaptation and ecosystem services in a communicative urban planning process, 2) guides the selection of a coherent and effective package of blue-green adaptation measures. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Voskamp, IM; Van de Ven, FHM

Planning support system for climate adaptation: Composing effective sets of blue-green measures to reduce urban vulnerability to extreme weather events

Building And Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2014.07.018

Surface water dynamics are sensitive to climate change and anthropogenic activity, and they exert important feedback to the above two processes. However, it is unclear how climate and human activity affect surface water variation, especially in semi-arid regions, such as Horqin Sandy Land (HQSL), a typical part of the fragile region for intensive interaction of climate and land use change in northern China. We investigated the changes of spatiotemporal distribution and the influence of climatic and anthropogenic factors on Surface Water Area (SWA) in HQSL. There are 5933 Landsat images used in this research, which were processed on the Google Earth Engine cloud platform to extract water bodies by vegetation index and water index method. The results revealed that the area and number of water bodies showed a significant decrease in HQSL from 1985 to 2020. Spatially, the SWA experienced different amplitudes of variation in the Animal Husbandry Dominated Region (AHDR) and in the Agriculture Dominated Region (ADR) during two periods; many water bodies even dried up and disappeared in HQSL. Hierarchical partitioning analysis showed that the SWA of both regions was primarily influenced by climatic factors during the pre-change period (1985-2000; the mutation occurred in 2000), and human activity has become more and more significantly important during the post-change period (2001-2020). Thus, it is predictable that SWA variation in the following decades will be influenced by the interaction of climate change and human activity, even more by the later in HQSL, and the social sectors have to improve their ability to adapt to climate change by modifying land use strategy and techniques toward the sustainable development of water resources.

Chen, XP; Zhao, XY; Zhao, YM; Wang, RX; Lu, JN; Zhuang, HY; Bai, LY

Interaction of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activity on the Spatiotemporal Changes of Surface Water Area in Horqin Sandy Land, China

Remote Sensing

https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15071918

Purpose: This paper reviews the past and future trends of climate change in Malaysia, the major contributors of greenhouse gases and the impacts of climate change to Malaysia. It also reviews the mitigation and adaptations undertaken, and future strategies to manage the impacts of regional climate change. Methodology: The review encompasses historical climate data comprising mean daily temperature, precipitation, mean sea level and occurrences of extreme weather events. Future climate projections have also been reviewed in addition to scholarly papers and news articles related to impacts, contributors, mitigation and adaptations in relation to climate change. Findings: The review shows that annual mean temperature, occurrences of extreme weather events and mean sea level are rising while rainfall shows variability. Future projections point to continuous rise of temperature and mean sea level till the end of the 21st century, highly variable rainfall and increased frequency of extreme weather events. Climate change impacts particularly on agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, water resources, coastal and marine resources, public health and energy. The energy and waste management sectors are the major contributors to climate change. Mitigation of and adaptations to climate change in Malaysia revolve around policy setting, enactment of laws, formulation and implementation of plans and programmes, as well as global and regional collaborations, particularly for energy, water resources, agriculture and biodiversity. There are apparent shortcomings in continuous improvement and monitoring of the programmes as well as enforcement of the relevant laws. Originality/value: This paper presents a comprehensive review of the major themes of climate change in Malaysia and recommends pertinent ways forward to fill the gaps of mitigation and adaptations already implemented. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tang, KHD

Climate change in Malaysia: Trends, contributors, impacts, mitigation and adaptations

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.316

Effective responses to climate change may demand a radical shift in human lifestyles away from self-interest for material gain, towards self-restraint for the public good. The challenge then lies in sustaining cooperative mitigation against the temptation to free-ride on others' contributions, which can undermine public endeavours. When all possible future scenarios entail costs, however, the rationale for contributing to a public good changes from altruistic sacrifice of personal profit to necessary investment in minimizing personal debt. Here we demonstrate analytically how an economic framework of costly adaptation to climate change can sustain cooperative mitigation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We develop game-theoretic scenarios from existing examples of insurance for adaptation to natural hazards exacerbated by climate-change that bring the debt burden from future climate events into the present. We model the as-yet untried potential for leveraging public contributions to mitigation from personal costs of adaptation insurance, by discounting the insurance premium in proportion to progress towards a mitigation target We show that collective mitigation targets are feasible for individuals as well as nations, provided that the premium for adaptation insurance in the event of no mitigation is at least four times larger than the mitigation target per player. This prediction is robust to players having unequal vulnerabilities, wealth, and abilities to pay. We enumerate the effects of these inequalities on payoffs to players under various sub-optimal conditions. We conclude that progress in mitigation is hindered by its current association with a social dilemma, which disappears upon confronting the bleak consequences of inaction. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Doncaster, CP; Tavoni, A; Dyke, JG

Using Adaptation Insurance to Incentivize Climate-change Mitigation

Ecological Economics

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.01.019

There is increasing interest in using systematic review to synthesize evidence on the social and environmental effects of and adaptations to climate change. Use of systematic review for evidence in this field is complicated by the heterogeneity of methods used and by uneven reporting. In order to facilitate synthesis of results and design of subsequent research a method, construct-centered methods aggregation, was designed to 1) provide a transparent, valid and reliable description of research methods, 2) support comparability of primary studies and 3) contribute to a shared empirical basis for improving research practice. Rather than taking research reports at face value, research designs are reviewed through inductive analysis. This involves bottom-up identification of constructs, definitions and operationalizations; assessment of concepts' commensurability through comparison of definitions; identification of theoretical frameworks through patterns of construct use; and integration of transparently reported and valid operationalizations into ideal-type research frameworks. Through the integration of reliable bottom-up inductive coding from operationalizations and top-down coding driven from stated theory with expert interpretation, construct-centered methods aggregation enabled both resolution of heterogeneity within identically named constructs and merging of differently labeled but identical constructs. These two processes allowed transparent, rigorous and contextually sensitive synthesis of the research presented in an uneven set of reports undertaken in a heterogenous field. If adopted more broadly, construct-centered methods aggregation may contribute to the emergence of a valid, empirically-grounded description of methods used in primary research. These descriptions may function as a set of expectations that improves the transparency of reporting and as an evolving comprehensive framework that supports both interpretation of existing and design of future research.

Delaney, A; Tamás, PA; Crane, TA; Chesterman, S

Systematic Review of Methods in Low-Consensus Fields: Supporting Commensuration through 'Construct-Centered Methods Aggregation' in the Case of Climate Change Vulnerability Research

Plos One

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0149071

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) reports that the number of extreme precipitation and temperature events in India are projected to increase in the short term. The negative effects of this on rural populations in India may include crop and livestock loss, livelihood risk, health and sanitation disruptions and shelter risk. Overseas Development Assistance, in the form of aid, will help rural communities to counter these impacts; several development agencies already require that the adaptation to climate change risks be included as project activities in the aid programme. However, it is often difficult to accurately target development aid in developing countries due to uneven and cluster-like development of areas. To help counter this problem, we developed a poverty index intended to help prioritize development aid towards communities at risk, in order of need. The district-wise poverty index was created for seven states of northeast India, a region with highly uneven development, and has been developed from data available from the North-East Data Bank (DoNER). The indicators were selected to adequately represent the poverty of the people as well as to act as a prioritizing mechanism in a data scarce region. The inclusion of a Gini coefficient of land distribution is new to poverty indexes, and helps to capture the pattern of highly unequal land distribution in northeast India, which in turn affects the distribution of income. Although primarily developed for northeast India, the index can be used in other developing countries with imbalances in regional development. If the biophysical factors affecting vulnerability are known, this index can be used in a weighted combination with vulnerability.

Nair, M; Ravindranath, NH; Sharma, N; Kattumuri, R; Munshi, M

Poverty index as a tool for adaptation intervention to climate change in northeast India

Climate And Development

https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2012.751337

Objectives: Climate change may be considered as a key factor for environmental change, exposure to health risks and pathogens, consequently impairing the state of health among populations. Efficient health surveillance systems are required to support adaptation to climate change. However, despite a growing awareness, the public health surveillance sector has had very little involvement in the drafting of adaptation plans. This paper proposes a method to raise awareness about climate change in the public health community, to identify possible health risks and to assess the needs for reinforced health surveillance systems. Methods: A working group was set up comprising surveillance experts in the following fields: environmental health; chronic diseases and; infectious diseases. Their goal was to define common objectives, to propose a framework for risk analysis, and to apply it to relevant health risks in France. Results: The framework created helped to organize available information on climate-sensitive health risks, making a distinction between three main determinants as follows: (1) environment; (2) individual and social behaviours; and (3) demography and health status. The process is illustrated using two examples: heatwaves and airborne allergens. Conclusion: Health surveillance systems can be used to trigger early warning systems, to create databases which improve scientific knowledge about the health impacts of climate change, to identify and prioritize needs for intervention and adaptation measures, and to evaluate these measures. Adaptation requires public health professionals to consider climate change as a concrete input parameter in their studies and to create partnerships with professionals from other disciplines. (C) 2012 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pascal, M; Viso, AC; Medina, S; Delmas, MC; Beaudeau, P

How can a climate change perspective be integrated into public health surveillance?

Public Health

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2012.04.013

The Arctic's climate is changing rapidly, to the extent that 'dangerous' climate change as defined by the United Nations Framework on Climate Change might already be occurring. These changes are having implications for the Arctic's Inuit population and are being exacerbated by the dependence of Inuit on biophysical resources for livelihoods and the low socio-economic-health status of many northern communities. Given the nature of current climate change and projections of a rapidly warming Arctic, climate policy assumes a particular importance for Inuit regions. This paper argues that efforts to stabilize and reduce greenhouse gas emissions are urgent if we are to avoid runaway climate change in the Arctic, but unlikely to prevent changes which will be dangerous for Inuit. In this context, a new policy discourse on climate change is required for Arctic regions-one that focuses on adaptation. The paper demonstrates that states with Inuit populations and the international community in general has obligations to assist Inuit to adapt to climate change through international human rights and climate change treaties. However, the adaptation deficit, in terms of what we know and what we need to know to facilitate successful adaptation, is particularly large in an Arctic context and limiting the ability to develop response options. Moreover, adaptation as an option of response to climate change is still marginal in policy negotiations and Inuit political actors have been slow to argue the need for adaptation assistance. A new focus on adaptation in both policy negotiations and scientific research is needed to enhance Inuit resilience and reduce vulnerability in a rapidly changing climate.

Ford, JD

Dangerous climate change and the importance of adaptation for the Arctic's Inuit population

Environmental Research Letters

https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/4/2/024006

There is a broad scientific consensus that climate change is occurring. Many areas of our coasts are already under threat from coastal hazards such as erosion and inundation. Future climate change is expected to have a range of repercussions. A combination of these changes and the current or increased development along our favourite coastlines will require an integrated view of the pressures and impacts in the coastal zone. However, how prepared are we to face these impacts of climate change where populations are growing and economic interests are expanding. To what extent do policy makers and planners understand potential changes and are prepared to act to reduce vulnerabilities, and how do we as scientists educate them on the changes in light of scientific uncertainty. In reviewing the present capacity to adapt to climate change on the Australian coast, it is apparent that there are gaps and uncertainties in current institutional arrangements, policy and government initiatives. Accordingly, the challenge is to work together to identify gaps in our management strategies and provide the necessary advice that links research, management, development, planning and economics. This paper is not a scientific paper but a paper about science and its role in future coastal management in grappling with what is a profound scientific, political, economic and anthropogenic problem. In broad terms, the paper provides a synthesis of the pressures and impacts of climate change on the Australian coast, implications for future coastal management and outlines ways forward being currently discussed and poses the idea, are the right questions being asked to address the escalating demands of climate change impacts.

Panayotou, K

Coastal Management and Climate Change: an Australian Perspective

Journal Of Coastal Research

None

Non-technical summaryImproving the flow of information between governments and local communities is paramount to achieving effective climate change mitigation and adaptation. We propose five pathways to deepen participation and improve community-based climate action. The pathways can be summarized as visualization, simulations to practice decision-making, participatory budgeting and planning, environmental civic service, and education and curriculum development. These pathways contribute to improving governance by consolidating in governments the practice of soliciting and incorporating community participation while simultaneously giving communities the tools and knowledge needed to become active contributors to climate change adaptation and mitigation measures.Technical summaryCommunity participation is considered a key component in the design of responses to climate change. Substantial engagement of local communities is required to ensure information flow between governments and communities, but also because local communities are the primary sites of adaptation action. However, frontline communities are often excluded from decision-making and implementation processes due to political choices or failures to identify ways to make participatory frameworks more inclusive. Climate action requires the active engagement of communities in making consequential decisions, or what we term deepened participation. We propose five pathways to deepen participation: visualization, simulations to practice decision-making, participatory budgeting and planning, environmental civic service, and education and curriculum development. The five pathways identify strategies that can be incorporated into existing organizational and institutional frameworks or used to create new ones. Shortcomings related to each strategy are identified. Reflection by communities and governments is encouraged as they choose which participatory technique(s) to adopt.Social media summaryClimate action requires the active engagement of communities. Learn five pathways to get started deepening participation.

Restrepo-Mieth, A; Perry, J; Garnick, J; Weisberg, M

Community-based participatory climate action

Global Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2023.12

In the Asia-Pacific region (APR), extreme precipitation is one of the most critical climate stressors, affecting 60% of the population and adding pressure to governance, economic, environmental, and public health challenges. In this study, we analyzed extreme precipitation spatiotemporal trends in APR using 11 different indices and revealed the dominant factors governing precipitation amount by attributing its variability to precipitation frequency and intensity. We further investigated how these extreme precipitation indices are influenced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at a seasonal scale. The analysis covered 465 ERA5 (the fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) study locations over eight countries and regions during 1990-2019. Results revealed a general decrease indicated by the extreme precipitation indices (e.g., the annual total amount of wet-day precipitation, average intensity of wet-day precipitation), particularly in central-eastern China, Bangladesh, eastern India, Peninsular Malaysia and Indonesia. We observed that the seasonal variability of the amount of wet-day precipitation in most locations in China and India are dominated by precipitation intensity in June-August (JJA), and by precipitation frequency in December-February (DJF). Locations in Malaysia and Indonesia are mostly dominated by precipitation intensity in March-May (MAM) and DJF. During ENSO positive phase, significant negative anomalies in seasonal precipitation indices (amount of wet-day precipitation, number of wet days and intensity of wet-day precipitation) were observed in Indonesia, while opposite results were observed for ENSO negative phase. These findings revealing patterns and drivers for extreme precipitation in APR may inform climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies in the study region.

An, D; Eggeling, J; Zhang, LN; He, H; Sapkota, A; Wang, YC; Gao, CS

Extreme precipitation patterns in the Asia-Pacific region and its correlation with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Scientific Reports

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-38317-0

Climate change is a significant threat to people living in mountainous regions. It is essential to understand how montane communities currently depend especially on the provisioning ecosystem services (ES) and the ways in which climate change will impact these services, so that people can develop relevant adaptation strategies. The ES in the Gurez Valley, in the Western Himalayas of Pakistan, provide a unique opportunity to explore these questions. This understudied area is increasingly exposed not only to climate change but also to the over exploitation of resources. Hence, this study aimed to (a) identify and value provisioning ES in the region; (b) delineate indigenous communities' reliance on ES based on valuation; and (c) measure the perceptions of indigenous communities of the impact of climate change on the ES in Gurez Valley. Semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions were used to classify the provisioning ES by using the 'Common International Classification on Ecosystem Services' (CICES) table and applying the 'Total Economic Valuation (TEV)' Framework. Results indicate that the indigenous communities are highly dependent on ES, worth 6730 & PLUSMN; 520 USD/ Household (HH)/yr, and perceive climate change as a looming threat to water, crops, and rearing livestock ESS in the Gurez Valley. The total economic value of the provisioning ES is 3.1 times higher than a household's average income. Medicinal plant collection is a significant source of revenue in the Valley for some households, i.e., worth 766 +/- 134.8 USD/HH/yr. The benefits of the sustainable use of ES and of climate change adaptation and mitigation, are culturally, economically, and ecologically substantial for the Western Himalayans.

Saeed, U; Arshad, M; Hayat, S; Morelli, TL; Nawaz, MA

Analysis of provisioning ecosystem services and perceptions of climate change for indigenous communities in the Western Himalayan Gurez Valley, Pakistan

Ecosystem Services

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2022.101453

The Himalaya is a mosaic of complex socio-ecological systems (SESs) characterized by a wide diversity of altitude, climate, landform, biodiversity, ethnicity, culture, and agriculture systems, among other things. Identifying the distribution of SESs is crucial for integrating and formulating effective programs and policies to ensure human well-being while protecting and conserving natural systems. This work aims to identify and spatially map the boundaries of SESs to address the questions of how SESs can be delineated and what the characteristics of these systems are. The study was carried out for the state of Uttarakhand, India, a part of the Central Himalaya. The presented approach for mapping and delineation of SESs merges socio-economic and ecological data. It also includes validation of delineated system boundaries. We used 32 variables to form socio-economic units and 14 biophysical variables for ecological units. Principal component analysis followed by sequential agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis was used to delineate the units. The geospatial statistical analysis identified 6 socio-economic and 3 ecological units, together resulting in 18 SESs for the entire state. The major characteristics for SESs were identified as forest types and agricultural practices, indicating the influence and dependency of SESs on these two features. The database would facilitate diverse application studies in vulnerability assessment, climate change adaptation and mitigation, and other socio-ecological studies. Such a detailed database addresses particularly site-specific characteristics to reduce risks and impacts. Overall, the identified SESs will help in recognizing local needs and gaps in existing policies and institutional arrangements, and the given methodological framework can be applied for the entire Himalayan region and for other mountain systems across the world.

Kumar, P; Fürst, C; Joshi, PK

Socio-Ecological Systems (SESs)-Identification and Spatial Mapping in the Central Himalaya

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su13147525

This study assessed the combined effects of increased urbanization and climate change on streamflow in the Yadkin-Pee Dee watershed (North Carolina, USA) and focused on the conversion from forest to urban land use, the primary land use transition occurring in the watershed. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate future (2050-2070) streamflow and baseflow for four combined climate and land use scenarios across the Yadkin-Pee Dee River watershed and three subwatersheds. The combined scenarios pair land use change and climate change scenarios together. Compared to the baseline, projected streamflow increased in three out of four combined scenarios and decreased in one combined scenario. Baseflow decreased in all combined scenarios, but decreases were largest in subwatersheds that lost the most forest. The effects of land use change and climate change were additive, amplifying the increases in runoff and decreases in baseflow. Streamflow was influenced more strongly by climate change than land use change. However, for baseflow the reverse was true; land use change tended to drive baseflow more than climate change. Land use change was also a stronger driver than climate in the most urban subwatershed. In the most extreme land use and climate projection the volume of the 1-day, 100 year flood nearly doubled at the watershed outlet. Our results underscore the importance of forests as hydrologic regulators buffering streamflow and baseflow from hydrologic extremes. Additionally, our results suggest that land managers and policy makers need to consider the implications of forest loss on streamflow and baseflow when planning for future urbanization and climate change adaptation options. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Suttles, KM; Singh, NK; Vose, JM; Martin, KL; Emanuel, RE; Coulston, JW; Saia, SM; Crump, MT

Assessment of hydrologic vulnerability to urbanization and climate change in a rapidly changing watershed in the Southeast US

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.287

As adaptation has come to the forefront in climate change discourse, research, and policy, it is crucial to consider the effects of how we interpret the concept. This paper draws attention to the need for interpretations that foster policies and institutions with the breadth and flexibility to recognize and support a wide range of locally relevant adaptation strategies. Social scientists have argued that, in practice, the standard definition of adaptation tends to prioritize economic over other values and technical over social responses, draw attention away from underlying causes of vulnerability and from the broader context in which adaptive responses take place, and exclude discussions of inequality, justice, and transformation. In this paper, we discuss an alternate understanding of adaptation, which we label living with climate change, that emerged from an ethnographic study of how rural residents of the U.S. Southwest understand, respond to, and plan for weather and climate in their daily lives, and we consider how it might inform efforts to develop a more comprehensive definition. The discussion brings into focus several underlying features of this lay conception of adaptation, which are crucial for understanding how adaptation actually unfolds on the ground: an ontology based on nature society mutuality; an epistemology based on situated knowledge; practice based on performatively adjusting human activities to a dynamic biophysical and social environment; and a placed-based system of values. We suggest that these features help point the way toward a more comprehensive understanding of climate change adaptation, and one more fully informed by the understanding that we are living in the Anthropocene. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Brugger, J; Crimmins, M

The art of adaptation: Living with climate change in the rural American Southwest

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.07.012

Climate change intersecting with complex socio-economic and political processes has produced distinctive patterns of crisis migration. However there exists a significant gap in understanding and theorizing these forms of migration creating significant policy challenges. Using a case study of an interstate migrant settlement in Bengaluru, India this article unpacks migration as an adaptation strategy through the lens of emotions. The article offers significant insights into how emotions affect the choice of migration as an adaptation strategy and shapes the differential experiences of risks and vulnerability for different groups of people. Emphasizing such relational aspects of migration, the article calls for more research that develops a nuanced understanding of the emotional landscapes of migrants across migration pathways.

Michael, K

Migration as a Climate Change Adaptation Strategy: What Role do Emotions Play?

Emotion Review

https://doi.org/10.1177/17540739231194327

Low-carbon economy is becoming a new approach to optimize economic development, ensuring energy security and coping with climate change. As one of the important emission sources of greenhouse gases (GHG), the industrial sector should be prioritized in the development of low-carbon economy. In this study, the carbon emission from industrial energy use of Chongqing is accounted. On basis of industrial carbon emission ( ICE) accounting, main factors responsible for industrial CO2 emission are identified and quantitatively analyzed using the Log-Mean Divisia Index method. The factors influencing ICE include energy mix, energy intensity, industrial structure and industrial output. It is found that the industrial output is the main driving force of ICE. The energy structure performs as a negative factor in carbon emission growth. By means of decomposing the influencing factors, several policy proposals were suggested for policy makers to build a low carbon city.

Yang, J; Chen, B

Using LMDI method to analyze the change of industrial CO2 emission from energy use in Chongqing

Frontiers Of Earth Science

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-011-0172-3

Urban planners and stakeholders require knowledge about the effectiveness of city-scale climate adaptation measures in order to develop climate resilient cities and to push forward the political process for the implementation of climate adaptation strategies in cities. This study examines the impact of modifications in urban surface fractions of buildings, impervious and pervious surfaces on summer air temperatures using urban climate modelling of idealised cities. Sensitivity tests are performed for nine typical settlement types in Germany. The results for minimum and maximum temperatures are analysed and plotted in a ternary diagram. The novel approach of using ternary diagrams for the aggregation and visualisation of modelling results clearly identifies thermally unfavourable ranges of urban surface partitioning that should be avoided for urban settlements. Furthermore, the diagrams are used to derive quantitative recommendations for the most effective reduction of summer heat intensity. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Buchholz, S; Kossmann, M

Research note. Visualisation of summer heat intensity for different settlement types and varying surface fraction partitioning

Landscape And Urban Planning

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2015.08.002

In response to the global challenges brought on by climate change, cities around the world are adapting, innovating through nature-based strategies for sustainable development. Climate adaptation requires new interdisciplinary approaches in which different disciplines as well as research and practice proactively co-create and collaborate on adaptation to reduce the ongoing effects of anthropogenic climate change. Although awareness on climate adaptation is on the rise, new approaches for urban development are still in development. Moreover, existing approaches mainly focus on local-scale levels or lack a crossover with urban and landscape planning. The present contribution offers an example of an integrated approach bridging urban climatology, landscape planning, and governance to assess and develop climate adaptation solutions linking city and district levels. The city of Verona was taken as a case study to test this approach and its implications for the development of a green and blue infrastructure with a climate-responsive master plan for the district of Verona South. Through critical reflection on the application of the approach to the case study, we aimed to identify its potentials and barriers. Based on this reflection, we provide herein recommendations on how climate modelling can be integrated into planning, as well as on how urban planners and urban climatologists can support each other in making credible and salient climate adaptation solutions.

Tomasi, M; Favargiotti, S; van Lierop, M; Giovannini, L; Zonato, A

Verona Adapt. Modelling as a Planning Instrument: Applying a Climate-Responsive Approach in Verona, Italy

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su13126851

The neoliberal transformation of the global political-economic system since the mid-1970s has led to profound and increasing inequality and has limited state capacities to tax, regulate and carry out socially supportive public policies. Neoliberalism, or the global institutionalization of laissez-faire economics, has helped to generalize individual and community vulnerability to climate-induced changes and decrease resilience by increasing poverty and thereby limiting options; the global majority face increasingly contingent employment and downward pressure on wages while global economic competition deprives smallholders of their assets. States compete to attract mobile capital by deregulating private activity such as logging and real estate development, increasing climate-related risks to individuals and communities. At the same time, neoliberal limits on the state have inhibited states' ability to fund and coordinate a range of necessary climate adaptations. Finally, neoliberalism undermines social cohesion and thereby limits the potential of civil society to substitute for the diminished state. Reforms to the global neoliberal system are therefore necessary if climate-vulnerable populations are to be protected.

Fieldman, G

Neoliberalism, the production of vulnerability and the hobbled state: Systemic barriers to climate adaptation

Climate And Development

https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2011.582278

This paper explores the origins of an air-condition dependency which evolved with 20th century architecture and is related to other developments that affected buildings in the last century, such as the lack of flexibility/adaptability of buildings and their short life span. It then looks at some passive design principles as frequently found in heritage buildings from the pre-air-conditioning era, which are based on heat avoidance and harnessing of natural energies, The paper concludes with a series of recommendations for a holistic pathway to zero-carbon, climate-adaptive buildings.

Lehmann, S

DEVELOPING A HOLISTIC PATHWAY TO CLIMATE-ADAPTIVE BUILDINGS

Journal Of Green Building

https://doi.org/10.3992/jgb.4.3.91