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Although the cities in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China are amongst the world's cities most exposed to flooding due to climate change, surprisingly little is done to address this problem. This article explores the barriers to the emergence of policies adapting to the growing flood risk in two PRD cities, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, underlining the importance of the Chinese territorial governance system for adaptive capacity at the local level. Focusing on institutions, ideas and interests as a heuristic device, the article contributes to the literature on urban climate adaptation and the nexus of spatial planning and flood risk management by exploring why and how the development of the adaptive capacity of cities is hampered, despite an urgent need for it.

Dabrowski, M; Stead, D; He, JH; Yu, F

Adaptive capacity of the Pearl River Delta cities in the face of the growing flood risk: Institutions, ideas and interests

Urban Studies

https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098020951471

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the extent of climate change awareness among the rural farmers of Northern Cross River state, investigate the gender role analyzes of some daily routine activities carried out by these rural farmers, ascertain the difference in workload burden of the impacts of climate change between men and women, identify the strategies adopted by these rural farmers to mitigate the effects of climate change in their agricultural activities and investigate the roles Environmental Education (EE) can play in helping the rural farmers to design and adopt sustainable adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce or completely eradicate their vulnerability to climate change effects. Design/methodology/approach The research design adopted for this study is the cross-sectional survey method. Five research questions guided the study. Two sets of instruments were used for data collection, a sample of 1,258 respondents (0.1%) were selected for the study. The researchers personally administered the instruments and collected the same back, two instruments were not properly filled, so they were rejected. Findings The finding of the study revealed that rural farmers have some level of climate change awareness, which they got from radio, newspapers, awareness campaigns, flyers, billboards, among others. Six out of the nine strategies listed were adopted by the rural farmers to mitigate climate change effects among these rural farmers. There is a significant difference in gender workload burden between women and male in the area, the result is positively skewed toward women, implying that the burden of workload for women increased over those of men. The result also shows that EE can influence their attitude toward climate change through awareness creation, knowledge provisions and also encourage members participation in climate change effect mitigation, prevention and adaptation. Research limitations/implications With this result, EE can be used as a tool for the creation of knowledge, awareness, attitude and encourage the participation of these rural farmers toward mitigating and prevention climate change effects among these rural farmers. It was recommended among others that deliberate policies should be designed to make EE help create the needed awareness on climate change, beginning from the causes, effects and mitigation strategies among rural farmers in their community. Practical implications Already, most Environmental Educators have been trained, the government should design and formulate practical policies to use them as extension agent on climate change effort to go to these rural communities and create the needed awareness, knowledge, skills and attitude to help them combat climate change effects including trees and cover crops planting and also re-introducing the use of irrigation agriculture in these farming communities. Social implications With the creation of awareness, social groups and individuals can also make a social investment from these activities and also improve their social capitals, thereby reducing social burdens and improving their living conditions within the rural settings. Originality/value This research is an original research paper from the effort. the purpose is to assess the extent of climate change awareness level and how the effects of climate change increase or reduces the burden of gender workload among rural farmers and the strategies which can be used by these rural farmers to prevent, mitigate and adapt to climate change effects and the roles EE can play. This study has an original value in the sense that in the course of the study, the study hardly saw articles on these specific variables in whole research, hence the resolve to assess these variables.

Eneji, CVO; Onnoghen, NU; Acha, JO; Diwa, JB

Climate change awareness, environmental education and gender role burdens among rural farmers of Northern Cross River State, Nigeria

International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-06-2020-0070

Rural populations in the developing world face great challenges in climate adaptation and human development. Broader development and climate adaptation can potentially enhance each other, and their positive synergies are essential to improve human well-being in less developed rural areas. Such synergies are, however, commonly lacking across developing countries. This paper examines the relationship between climate adaptation and broader development and finds a positive synergy in the Poyang Lake Region (PLR) - an important rice producing area in China that is vulnerable to flood hazards. We further examine household decision-making and link household decisions to rice cropping patterns interpreted from satellite images to explain the micro- to macro- mechanisms that lead to this synergy. The analysis shows that both the broader development context (national economic development and agricultural policy) and specific risk management (levees) are important for creating the positive synergy. Moreover, it is the right interactions of the social, natural, and technological subsystems that enable rural households to make different land-use and livelihood choices in a way that improves rural livelihoods and reduces flood impacts on rural livelihoods. The diverse household choices then collectively lead to preservation of rice production, despite the negative influence from increasing nonfarm work, and decreased flood impacts on agriculture.

Tian, Q; Jiang, LG; Lemos, M; Qi, SH

Interactions of social, natural, and technological subsystems and synergy between development and adaptation to floods around Poyang Lake

Annals Of Gis

https://doi.org/10.1080/19475683.2018.1471520

While many national governments struggle to maintain global climate change as a high priority issue, many local governments are taking action to fill the policy gaps. This study examines how local governments across the United Kingdom of Great Britain are reframing climate change. We compiled a dataset of newspaper publications covering climate change over a 10-year timeframe, plus survey and interview responses from local governance practitioners, to identify a shift in national discourse that has changed the priority level of climate change in UK local governance. This paper argues that many local governments are strategically reframing climate change as alternative issues in order to make progress in climate adaptation planning.

Romsdahl, RJ; Kirilenko, A; Wood, RS; Hultquist, A

Assessing National Discourse and Local Governance Framing of Climate Change for Adaptation in the United Kingdom

Environmental Communication-A Journal Of Nature And Culture

https://doi.org/10.1080/17524032.2016.1275732

This paper examines whether US cities' membership in voluntary climate clubs improves the municipal bond ratings issued by S&P, Moody's, and Fitch. We suggest that only clubs focused on climate adaptation could help cities signal their resilience to climate risks and their ability to service their municipal bonds. Yet, club membership is only a signal of intent. By itself, it does not offer concrete evidence that cities have adopted adaptation policies or enhanced their resilience to climate risks. We examine three climate clubs: ICLEI, whose membership obligations cover climate and other environmental issues; C40, whose scope covers both climate mitigation and adaptation; and 100 Resilient Cities (100RC), which focuses on adaptation only. Employing a two-way fixed effects model for a panel of 80 US cities from 1995 to 2018, we find that 100RC membership leads to a small improvement in bond ratings. This has important policy implications: Assurances about implementing adaptation policy, as opposed to evidence about how adaptation reduces climate risks, could have spillover effects on municipal finance. In such cases, climate adaptation could have tangible implications for city-level finances.

Ko, I; Prakash, A

Signaling climate resilience to municipal bond markets: does membership in adaptation-focused voluntary clubs affect bond rating?

Climatic Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03329-8

Climate change enhances pluvial flood risk in many cities all over the world, especially in densely populated urban areas with high impervious surfaces that need to adapt to heavy precipitation. For this purpose, multifunctional stormwater infrastructures such as water plazas appear promising as there is a high competition for open space in most urban areas. Yet, to date only very few water plazas have been realized with at least one implementation hampered by a lack of public acceptance. In this study, semi-structured interviews are used to investigate how plans to build a water plaza in the city of Cologne are perceived by local residents. Factors crucial to public acceptance are identified. Experience with flooding, knowledge of the planned construction and awareness of benefits turned out to be important for acceptance, whereas social and personal norms were less relevant. The identified factors led to finding recommendations to promote public acceptance of innovative climate adaptation measures like water plazas.

Netzel, L; Drewing, E; Netzel, L; Denecke, M

Understanding Public Acceptance of a Multifunctional Water Plaza: A Case Study

Water

https://doi.org/10.3390/w13040576

In the face of global systemic risks brought about by climate change, government organizations, civil societies, and enterprises globally have begun standardizing and implementing relevant contingency measures to mitigate or adapt to climate change. For example, Take SDG 13 climate action or implement various strategies for low -carbon transformation. In addition to responding to climate change commitments, these major changes have also boosted the rating scores of their ESG performance indicators, which inevitably have a certain degree of impact on their financial performance. Using the ESG performance indicators and financial data of 100 manufacturing firms worldwide from 2005 to 2020, this study constructs a multilevel quadratic growth model to analyze and investigate the effects of different types of ownership structure as well as disclosure of climate change-related risks and opportunities (CCR risks) on ESG and financial performance indicators among manufacturing industry firms. The findings of this study showed that different ownership structures, the degree of disclosure of climate change-related risks and opportunities (CCR risks), and the number of environmental performance indicators had no multiplicative effect on the financial performance of manufacturing companies. Instead, there was a positive, but negatively moderating, effect on financial performance. When the investigated enterprises attached higher importance to climate change issues and thus strengthened investments in, and implementation of, corresponding environmental performance indicators, the positive impact of environmental performance on financial performance gradually diminished to the point of negative impact, thereby affecting companies' operating profits. This was especially the case for private enterprises. However, disclosure of climate change-related risks and opportunities has a significant positive effect on financial performance among such firms. In addition, private firms and social performance indicators had a negative, but positively moderating, effect on financial performance. This meant that, upon investigation, the private enterprises made more effort to invest in and implement social performance indicators, and the impact on financial performance gradually increased and eventually shifted from negative to positive. Environmental performance indicators and financial performance were generally found to exhibit a distinctly positive effect.In summary, the results of this study can be used as a reference for firm managers to enhance their decision -making related to actions, strategies, and planning in response to climate change-related risks and opportunities under the framework of ESG performance indicators.

Chen, HM; Kuo, TC; Chen, JL

Impacts on the ESG and financial performances of companies in the manufacturing industry based on the climate change related risks

Journal Of Cleaner Production

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.134951

The links between water application, energy consumption and emissions are complex in irrigated agriculture. There is a need to ensure that water and energy use is closely considered in future industry planning and development to provide practical options for adaptation and to build resilience at the farm level. There is currently limited data available regarding the uncertainty and sensitivity associated with water application and energy consumption in irrigated crop production in Australia. This paper examines water application and energy consumption relationships for different irrigation systems, and the ways in which the uncertainty of different parameters impacts on these relationships and associated emissions for actual farms. This analysis was undertaken by examining the current water and energy patterns of crop production at actual farms in two irrigated areas of Australia (one using surface water and the other groundwater), and then modelling the risk/uncertainty and sensitivity associated with the link between water and energy consumption at the farm scale. Results showed that conversions from gravity to pressurised irrigation methods reduced water application, but there was a simultaneous increase in energy consumption in surface irrigation areas. In groundwater irrigated areas, the opposite is true; the use of pressurised irrigation methods can reduce water application and energy consumption by enhancing water use efficiency. Risk and uncertainty analysis quantified the range of water and energy use that might be expected for a given irrigation method for each farm. Sensitivity analysis revealed the contribution of climatic (evapotranspiration and rainfall) and technical factors (irrigation system efficiency, pump efficiency, suction and discharge head) impacting the uncertainty and the model output and water-energy system performance in general. Flood irrigation systems were generally associated with greater uncertainty than pressurised systems. To enhance resilience at the farm level, the optimum situation envisaged an irrigation system that minimises water and energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Where surface water is used, well designed and managed flood irrigation systems will minimise the operating energy and carbon equivalent emissions. Where groundwater is the dominant use, the optimum system is a well designed and managed pressurised system operating at the lowest discharge pressure possible that will still allow for efficient irrigation. The findings might be useful for farm level risk mitigation strategies in surface and groundwater systems, and for aiding adaptation to climate change. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Jackson, TM; Hanjra, MA; Khan, S; Hafeez, MM

Building a climate resilient farm: A risk based approach for understanding water, energy and emissions in irrigated agriculture

Agricultural Systems

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2011.08.003

The Eastern Mediterranean resides on the border between the temperate and semi-arid and arid climate zones, and is thus influenced by both mid-latitude and sub-tropical weather systems. Precipitation and extreme weather in this region are mainly associated with either Cyprus Lows or the wet Red Sea Troughs. Current regional climate projections indicate that the region may become warmer and drier in future decades. Here, we analyze the influence of enhanced greenhouse gas forcing on the climatological properties of the 'wet' and 'dry' Red Sea Trough (WRST & DRST, respectively). With this aim, a regional synoptic classification and a downscaling algorithm based on past analogs are applied to eighteen rain stations over the main ground water basins in Israel. The algorithms are applied to the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for 1986-2005 and to eight CMIP5 model simulations for the historical (1986-2005) and end of the century (2081-2100) climate conditions according to the RCP8.5 scenario. For the historical period, the CMIP5 models are largely able to represent the characteristics of the Red Sea Trough. Based on the multi-model mean, significant changes are found for WRST and DRST for the late XXI Century. First, an increase in the meridional pressure gradient is found for both the WRST and the DRST, implying stronger horizontal winds. Furthermore, a significant decrease in the occurrence of the WRST (- 20%) and a significant increase in the frequency of the DRST (+ 19%) are identified. Accordingly, the persistence of the WRST decreases (- 9%), while for DRST increases (+ 9%). The decline in the frequency of WRST occurs primarily in the transition seasons, while the increase for DRST is found throughout the wet season. In total, the daily rainfall associated with the WRST system is projected to significantly decline (- 37%) by the end of the XXI century. These results document the projected changes in a dominant synoptic system in this area, which can facilitate a better estimation of the arising challenges, e.g., related to shortage of water resources and associated political unrest, reduced agricultural potential, and increased air pollution and forest fires. Such a pathway can ultimately foster novel mitigation strategies for water resources management and regional climate change adaptation.

Hochman, A; Rostkier-Edelstein, D; Kunin, P; Pinto, JG

Changes in the characteristics of 'wet' and 'dry' Red Sea Trough over the Eastern Mediterranean in CMIP5 climate projections

Theoretical And Applied Climatology

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03449-0

Para rubber (Hevea brasiliensis Mull. Arg) plantations have expanded into regions with sub-optimal growth conditions: distinct dry seasons and temperatures cooler than in humid tropics. The impact of these new marginal environments and future climate change on rubber tree development and latex yield is largely unknown. This hampers reliable prediction of farmers' revenues and extent of carbon sequestration at landscape level. To improve our understanding of rubber trees response to planting at high altitudes and associated increase in planting densities, we applied the process-based Land Use Change Impact Assessment tool (LUCIA). It was calibrated with detailed ground survey data from Xishuangbanna, southwest China to model tree biomass development and latex yield in rubber plantations at the tree, plot and landscape level. Plantations were analyzed at < 900 m above sea level (a.s.l., lowland rubber) and >= 900 m a.s.l. (highland rubber) in order to characterize the effect of elevation on rubber trees. Three planting densities: low (< 495 trees ha(-1)), medium (495-600 trees ha(-1)) and high (> 600 trees ha(-1)) were tested. Four greenhouse gas emission scenarios, with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) ranging from the lowest RCP 2.6 to the highest emission scenario RCP 8.5, were used to test rubber tree response to climate change. During a 40-year rotation under current climate, lowland rubber plantations grew faster and had larger latex yields than highland rubber. The average biomass of lowland rubber was 9% and 18% higher than those of highland rubber for aboveground and belowground biomass, respectively. High planting density rubber plantations showed 5% and 4% higher above ground biomass than those at low- and medium-planting density, but simulations suggest that the cumulative latex production decreased strongly by 26% and 14% respectively. The results of the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario suggested that during 40 years simulation mean total biomass and cumulative latex yield of highland rubber (per tree) increased by 28% and 48%, while lowland rubber increased by 8% and 10% respectively when compared to the baseline. Other rubber cultivation regions could also benefit from this modelling approach that helps in optimization of carbon stock and latex production in rubber-based system. The results could help in development of future climate change adaption and mitigation strategies.

Yang, XQ; Blagodatsky, S; Marohn, C; Liu, HX; Golbon, R; Xu, JC; Cadisch, G

Climbing the mountain fast but smart: Modelling rubber tree growth and latex yield under climate change

Forest Ecology And Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2019.02.028

Despite some honorable advances, a huge quantity of public, private, and civil climate adaptation initiatives have failed to work in the Santa Catarina State (SC), Southern Brazil. Consequently, the state continues to face climate impacts; sometimes resulting in human fatalities. The main objective of this paper is to present a case study (Tapera da Base) within the context of the project, Climate Change and Vulnerable Populations in Brazil, which discusses the problems associated with climate adaptation and relates these to risk-reducing activities. The methodology adopted involved: identifying local development organizations, focus group, interviews, and survey among families in the most vulnerable areas. The main findings show that Tapera residents do not associate the possible increase in their vulnerability to climate dynamics. They point to areas such as education, sanitation, and social assistance, as their most important local problems; thus not including climate change. To generate genuine participation it is crucial to creating initiatives that promote a social learning space for residents to evaluate their self-state of vulnerability and possibilities of development. Therefore climate change can make sense and the responses at the community level will be created in the context that shape how climate risk is perceived, prioritized and managed.

Bonatti, M; Lana, MA; D'Agostini, LR; de Vasconcelos, ACF; Sieber, S; Eufemia, L; da Silva-Rosa, T; Schlindwein, SL

Social representations of climate change and climate adaptation plans in southern Brazil: Challenges of genuine participation

Urban Climate

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2019.100496

Climate change coupled with the current trend in rapid urbanization is increasing the risk of flooding that can cause loss of life and damage to property. Adapting to climate change impacts and flood mitigation has become a life critical factor as well as a severe challenge. Green infrastructure and low impact development methods are common approaches that are increasingly used to address stormwater management in developed environments. The analysis and results of this study show that AMC/IC does impact flood response even in urban developed catchments and that it can significantly impact flood responses during storm events. We show that considering AMC/ICs coupled with changes in seasonal rainfall patterns that are projected for warmer climates in the future can modulate some of the increases in flood risk due to climate change. The prevailing thought is that Antecedent Moisture Conditions (AMCs) have little to no relevance in urban hydrology, particularly in relation to climate change. However, current trends in use of stormwater management methods that depend on local storage and infiltration is increasingly making AMC or Initial Conditions (IC) a factor in urban flooding. Despite this trend there is little available literature that discuss the aspect of AMC/IC that can have an implication on urban flood management. Here, we move towards filling this gap in current literature related to impacts of AMCs in flooding of developed areas by focusing on how possible changes in seasonal rainfall patterns in a warming climate might impact AMC and starting conditions in stormwater Best Management Practices (SWBMPs), and how those changed initial conditions impact flood risk in developed areas. Using a comprehensive hydrologic/hydraulic model of an urban/developed catchment and continuous simulation, we demonstrate the importance of accurately accounting for initial conditions in flood assessments. We consider average summer temperatures based on approximately 70 years of historic data to select warm and cold years. We compare the model results between the warm and cold years as a proxy to look at trends related to a future warming climate.

Hettiarachchi, S; Wasko, C; Sharma, A

Can antecedent moisture conditions modulate the increase in flood risk due to climate change in urban catchments?

Journal Of Hydrology

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.01.039

A global energy transition is underway. Limiting warming to 2 degrees C (or less), as envisaged in the Paris Agreement, will require a major diversion of scheduled investments in the fossil-fuel industry and other high-carbon capital infrastructure towards renewables, energy efficiency, and other low or negative carbon technologies. The article explores the scale of climate finance and investment needs embodied in the Paris Agreement. It reveals that there is little clarity in the numbers from the plethora of sources (official and otherwise) on climate finance and investment. The article compares the US$100 billion target in the Paris Agreement with a range of other financial metrics, such as investment, incremental investment, energy expenditure, energy subsidies, and welfare losses. While the relatively narrowly defined climate finance included in the US$100 billion figure is a fraction of the broader finance and investment needs of climate-change mitigation and adaptation, it is significant when compared to some estimates of the net incremental costs of decarbonization that take into account capital and operating cost savings. However, even if the annual US$100 billion materializes, achieving the much larger implied shifts in investment will require the enactment of long-term internationally coordinated policies, far more stringent than have yet been introduced.Policy relevanceMaintaining momentum towards fulfilling Article 2 of the UNFCCC - avoiding dangerous climate-change - means keeping a sense of perspective on how key financial and investment indicators of progress relate to the underlying macroeconomic reality of the task that lies ahead. There is a wide gap between the level of rhetorical commitment to mitigating and adapting to climate change evident at the Paris COP 21 Climate Summit, and countries' actual on the ground commitments to emission reduction and investment in climate resilience, and the policies to bring them about. In particular, major shifts in financial flows towards low-carbon energy (renewables and energy efficiency) will be required if this gap is to be reduced.

Peake, S; Ekins, P

Exploring the financial and investment implications of the Paris Agreement

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2016.1258633

Trees provide multiple ecosystem services (ES) and are generally considered an important natural-based approach for climate change adaptation and mitigation. In urban areas, proper pruning practices can help enhance ES provided by trees, but in areas with issues of typhoons or storms, routinely intensive pruning may reduce ES. Therefore, it is critical to determine proper pruning intensity in balancing the ES provision and life/property protection. With the aim of promoting sustainable urban forestry management, we applied the i-Tree Eco to quantify ES and ES values of air pollution removal and runoff avoidance provided by a total of 87,014 Taipei street trees and developed an analytical method to estimate the potential loss caused by different pruning intensities. Based on the i-Tree Eco estimates, the Taipei street trees on average provide ES values of air pollution removal and runoff avoidance at $2.31 and $1.87 USD/tree/y, respectively. By changing the ratio of crown missing as a surrogate for different pruning intensities, we found that with a less than 25% pruning intensity, the decline ratio of ES values was relatively constant, and the potential loss was estimated at $0.47 USD/tree/y at the 25% pruning intensity. As such, in general maintenance situations, we recommend a less than 25% pruning intensity. However, during typhoon or monsoon seasons, a less than 45% pruning intensity is suggested to balance the ES provision and public safety with an estimated loss at $0.96 USD/tree/y. We also suggest creating visualization maps incorporating the potential ES and the local in situ environmental and tree conditions at a community level to support decision making for a more comprehensive management plan. Based on the framework and method developed in this study, the science-based information can be used to assist maintenance practices and highlight the potential ES values to be enhanced by choosing proper pruning intensity for a more sustainable future.

Wei, S; Cheng, ST

Estimating Pruning-Caused Loss on Ecosystem Services of Air Pollution Removal and Runoff Avoidance

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su14116637

Global climate change is expected to impact future precipitation and surface temperature trends and could alter local hydrologic systems. This study assessed the likely hydrologic responses and changes in streamflow due to future climate change within the Alabama River Basin (ARB) for the mid-21st century 2045 (2030-2060) and end-21st century 2075 (2060-2090). Using an integrated modeling approach, General Circulation Model (GCM) datasets; the Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques Climate Model 5 (CNRM-CM5), the Community Earth System Model, version 1-Biogeochemistry (CESM1- BGC.1), and the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 (HADGEM2-AO.1), under medium Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, and based on World Climate Research Program (WCRP)'s Couple Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), were assimilated into calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Mann-Kendall and Theil Sen's slope were used to assess the trends and magnitude of variability of the historical climate data used for setting up the model. The model calibration showed goodness of fit with minimum Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) coefficient values of 0.83 and Coefficient of Determination (R-2) of 0.88 for the three gages within the ARB. Next, the research assessed changes in streamflow for the years 2045 and 2075 against that of the reference baseline year of 1980. The results indicate situations of likely increase and decrease in mean monthly streamflow discharge and increase in the frequency and variability in peak flows during the periods from the mid to end of the 21st century. Seasonally, monthly streamflow increases between 50% and 250% were found for spring and autumn months with decreases in summer months for 2045. Spring and summer months for 2075 resulted in increased monthly streamflow between 50% and 300%, while autumn and spring months experienced decreased streamflow. While the results are prone to inherent uncertainties in the downscaled GCM data used, the simulated dynamics in streamflow and water availability provide critical information for stakeholders to develop sustainable water management and climate change adaptation options for the ARB.

Quansah, JE; Naliaka, AB; Fall, S; Ankumah, R; El Afandi, G

Assessing Future Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow within the Alabama River Basin

Climate

https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9040055

A changing climate and higher wind speeds means that residential construction is likely to receive more damage in the future if design standards are maintained at the current level. The vulnerability of residential construction may be reduced by an adaptation strategy that increases design wind speeds specified by Australian standards. The paper applies break-even analysis to compare the risks, costs and benefits of climate adaptation strategies for new housing in the three largest cities in Australia: Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne. These cities are located in southeast Australia where wind hazard is dominated by synoptic winds (thunderstorms and east-coast lows). Break-even estimates of risk reduction and adaptation cost for designing new housing to enhanced standards were calculated for three synoptic wind pattern scenarios to 2070: (1) no change, (2) B1 and (3) A1FI emission scenarios. If the actual cost of adaptation exceeds the predicted break-even value, then adaptation is not cost-effective. It was found that this adaptation strategy can lead to risk reductions of 50-80 % at a cost of approximately 1 % of house replacement value. If risk reduction is over 50 %, discount rate is 4 %, and there is no change of climate, the break-even analysis shows that adaptation is cost-effective for Sydney if the adaptation cost is less than 5-9 % of house replacement cost. Designing new housing to enhance wind classifications is also likely to be a cost-effective adaptation strategy for Brisbane and Melbourne.

Stewart, MG

Risk and economic viability of housing climate adaptation strategies for wind hazards in southeast Australia

Mitigation And Adaptation Strategies For Global Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-013-9510-y

In order to address the impacts of climate change, global multilateral institutions, development organizations, and national and regional science organizations are creating climate services - packages of useful climate information intended to help decision makers. This diffuse collection of actors and institutions suggest that producing climate services will help bridge gaps between climate scientists and decision-makers and will therefore help vulnerable countries and people manage the risks and optimize the impacts of climate change. This article examines this global science-policy ecosystem using the case of climate services produced by Australian science agencies for consumption in adaptation programming in the Pacific Island countries of Kiribati and Solomon Islands. Linking research on geographies of marketization and the neoliberalization of science, I demonstrate that within the climate service movement a focus on usefulness is paired with an emphasis on commercialization. As a result, this case shows the inherent tensions in the climate service model: first, a focus on competition and circulating service products at the expense of collaborative relationships; second, difficulties in negotiating uncertainty; and third contradictions between 'objective' and 'entrepreneurial' science. In each of these instances, the commercialized mechanisms through which climate services are governed, and the political economic circumstances within which they are produced, magnify rather than ameliorate gaps between science and policy.

Webber, S

Circulating climate services: Commercializing science for climate change adaptation in Pacific Islands

Geoforum

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2017.07.009

Despite increased research and policy focus on the adoption and impact of climate-smart agricultural practices (CSAPs) on small household farmers' welfare, synergies between adaptive and mitigatory CSAPs are not well understood. This study responds to this knowledge gap by examines the determinants of adoption of adaptive and mitigatory CSAPs in isolation and when combined, and their impacts on rice yield and rice net income in Hubei, China. Using three-year household-level pooled cross-sectional data and addressing selection biases from both observable and unobservable heterogeneity were managed by applying a multinomial endogenous switching regression framework. Our findings indicate that adopting both adaptive and mitigatory CSAPs increases rice yield and rice net income by 15.879% and 19.288%, respectively. Besides, the strong complementarities exist between adaptive and mitigatory CSAPs to address climate change in improving productivity and income when experiencing extreme weather events (e.g., EI Nino event). These findings highlight the positive role of integrating adaptive and mitigatory CSAPs in coping with climate change challenges, and increasing household farmers' economic welfare in China, and potentially elsewhere.

Liang, ZH; Zhang, L; Li, WJ; Zhang, JB; Frewer, LJ

Adoption of combinations of adaptive and mitigatory climate-smart agricultural practices and its impacts on rice yield and income: Empirical evidence from Hubei, China

Climate Risk Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100314

In this study, the spatiotemporal change patterns and driving factors of land surface temperature (LST) on the YunnanKweichow Plateau (YKP) during 2000-2020 are investigated by using the Thermal and Reanalysis Integrating Moderate-resolution Spatial-seamless (TRIMS) LST dataset provided by National Tibetan Plateau Data Center. The YKP LST spatiotemporal change patterns are revealed at annual, seasonal, monthly, and daily scales. Furthermore, seven driving factors such as air temperature, land cover types, normalized difference vegetation index, precipitation, solar radiation, elevation, and latitude are quantified the impacts on LST spatial heterogeneity at annual scale. The main findings are as follows: (1) Annual mean LST increases by 0.016 K/year. Annual mean daytime LST slightly decreases by 0.009 K/year. Annual mean nighttime LST significantly increases by 0.042 K/year. (2) The trend and seasonal components of the daily, daily mean daytime, and daily mean nighttime LST have five and four breakpoints respectively, indicating that the variation of LST is unstable during 2000-2020 on the YKP. (3) The LST lapse rates at nighttime are generally higher than those at daytime on the YKP at the annual, seasonal, and monthly scales. The LST maximum lapse rate is 0.59 K/100 m in summer nighttime, and the LST minimum lapse rate is 0.18 K/100 m in winter daytime. (4) The controlling effects of seven factors are generally stronger in the nighttime than those in the daytime. The factors of elevation and air temperature dominate the LST spatial distribution on the YKP, with a contribution rate of >70 %. In addition, the interactions among the seven factors are all enhancing the effects on the spatial distribution of annual mean LST, including bivariate enhancement and nonlinear enhancement. This study contributes to the mitigation and adaptation to climate change of LST in the plateau and plays a theoretical reference role in formulating corresponding policies for environmental protection.

He, ZW; Tang, BH

Spatiotemporal change patterns and driving factors of land surface temperature in the Yunnan-Kweichow Plateau from 2000 to 2020

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165288

Extreme climatic events, such as heat waves, cold snaps and drought spells, related to global climate change, have become more frequent and intense in recent years. Acclimation of plant physiological processes to changes in environmental conditions is a key component of plant adaptation to climate change. We assessed the temperature response of leaf photosynthetic parameters in wheat grown under contrasting water regimes and growth temperatures (T-growth). Two independent experiments were conducted under controlled conditions. In Experiment 1, two wheat genotypes were subjected to well-watered or drought-stressed treatments; in Experiment 2, the two water regimes combined with high, medium and low T-growth were imposed on one genotype. Parameters of a biochemical C-3-photosynthesis model were estimated at six leaf temperatures for each factor combination. Photosynthesis acclimated more to drought than to T-growth. Drought affected photosynthesis by lowering its optimum temperature (T-opt) and the values at T-opt of light-saturated net photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, mesophyll conductance, the maximum rate of electron transport (J(max)) and the maximum rate of carboxylation by Rubisco (V-cmax). T-opt for V-cmax was up to 40 degrees C under well-watered conditions but 24-34 degrees C under drought. The decrease in photosynthesis under drought varied among T-growth but was similar between genotypes. The temperature response of photosynthetic quantum yield under drought was partly attributed to photorespiration but more to alternative electron transport. All these changes in biochemical parameters could not be fully explained by the changed leaf nitrogen content. Further model analysis showed that both diffusional and biochemical parameters of photosynthesis and their thermal sensitivity acclimate little to T-growth, but acclimate considerably to drought and the combination of drought and T-growth. The commonly used modelling approaches, which typically consider the response of diffusional parameters, but ignore acclimation responses of biochemical parameters to drought and T-growth, strongly overestimate leaf photosynthesis under variable temperature and drought.

Fang, L; Martre, P; Jin, KN; Du, XM; van der Putten, PEL; Yin, XY; Struik, PC

Neglecting acclimation of photosynthesis under drought can cause significant errors in predicting leaf photosynthesis in wheat

Global Change Biology

https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16488

Coastal cities are under rising pressure to adapt to climate change. They suffer from the severe effects of increased frequencies and intensities of coastal hazards, particularly flooding, while oftentimes continuing to sprawl into hazard-exposed areas and grow beyond the pace of sufficient infrastructure development. Even though these problems have been quite well understood for a while, there is still comparatively little knowledge and scientific assessment of the solution space, i.e., on the options available for adaptation and the ways in which they are being perceived, framed and evaluated in the scientific literature. Focusing on Jakarta, this study presents findings from a systematic assessment of peer-reviewed scientific literature on the adaptation solution space with regard to current and future flooding. Jakarta is chosen as a case study since it is among the cities with the highest flood risk and adaptation pressure globally while also being one of the most heavily researched coastal cities in this regard, certainly in the Global South. Based on a structured keyword search, we assess 339 articles. Results indicate that the perceived solution space is skewed towards hard protection against flooding, while measures to accommodate flooding or retreat from exposed areas are less widely considered in the scientific debate. Soft adaptation measures for the reduction of social vulnerability receive less attention in the literature than those measures targeting the taming of flood hazards, often through engineering solutions. Likewise, hybrid adaptation approaches, which combine soft and hard measures in a complementary way, are only rarely considered. Looking into the future, the findings suggest that despite the importance of hard flood protection as a main adaptation solution in Jakarta, other fields of the solution space deserve increased scientific attention. This relates in particular to urgently needed feasibility and effectiveness assessments of ecosystems-based solutions for flood mitigation and adaptation options targeting social vulnerability. While the empirical results are specific to Jakarta, heuristic observations from research on other coastal cities suggest that similar scoping exercises of the predominantly perceived solution space might be of relevance in many cities beyond Jakarta.

Wannewitz, M; Garschagen, M

Review article: Mapping the adaptation solution space - lessons from Jakarta

Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3285-2021

Background Climate change is expected to decrease food security globally. Many Indigenous communities have heightened sensitivity to climate change and food insecurity for multifactorial reasons including close relationships with the local environment and socioeconomic inequities which increase exposures and challenge adaptation to climate change. Pregnant women have additional sensitivity to food insecurity, as antenatal undernutrition is linked with poor maternal-infant health. This study examined pathways through which climate change influenced food security during pregnancy among Indigenous and non-Indigenous women in rural Uganda. Specific objectives were to characterize: 1) sensitivities to climate-associated declines in food security for pregnant Indigenous women; 2) women's perceptions of climate impacts on food security during pregnancy; and 3) changes in food security and maternal-infant health over time, as observed by women. Methods Using a community-based research approach, we conducted eight focus group discussions-four in Indigenous Batwa communities and four in non-Indigenous communities-in Kanungu District, Uganda, on the subject of climate and food security during pregnancy. Thirty-six women with >= 1 pregnancy participated. Data were analysed using a constant comparative method and thematic analysis. Results Women indicated that food insecurity was common during pregnancy and had a bidirectional relationship with antenatal health issues. Food security was thought to be decreasing due to weather changes including extended droughts and unpredictable seasons harming agriculture. Women linked food insecurity with declines in maternal-infant health over time, despite improved antenatal healthcare. While all communities described food security struggles, the challenges Indigenous women identified and described were more severe. Conclusions Programs promoting women's adaptive capacity to climate change are required to improve food security for pregnant women and maternal-infant health. These interventions are particularly needed in Indigenous communities, which often face underlying health inequities. However, resiliency among mothers was strong and, with supports, they can reduce food security challenges in a changing climate.

Bryson, JM; Patterson, K; Berrang-Ford, L; Lwasa, S; Namanya, DB; Twesigomwe, S; Kesande, C; Ford, JD; Harper, SL

Seasonality, climate change, and food security during pregnancy among indigenous and non-indigenous women in rural Uganda: Implications for maternal-infant health

Plos One

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247198

Until now, we have no thorough understanding the role of absolute humidity on influenza activity, especially in tropical and subtropical areas. In this study, we investigated the relationship between absolute humidity and influenza activity in seven municipalities/provinces covering different climatic zones in China. Weekly meteorological data and influenza surveillance data in seven provinces/municipalities in China were collected from January 2012 to December 2019. A distributed lag nonlinear model was adopted to investigate the association between absolute humidity (AH) and influenza activity in each study site. Then, seven study sites were grouped into three regions: northern, intermediate, and southernmost regions. A multivariate meta-analysis was applied to estimate the exposure-lag-response associations in three regions. The province-specific or municipality-specific curves appeared to be nonlinear, and the association between influenza activity and AH varied across regions. In Beijing and Tianjin, located in northern China, the cumulative relative risks (RRs) increased as weekly average AHmean fell below 3.41 g/m(3) and 6.62 g/m(3). In Guangdong and Hainan, located in southernmost China, the risk of influenza activity increased with rising average AHmean with 16.74 g/m(3) and 20.18 g/m(3) as the break points. In Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Chongqing, the relationship between weekly average AHmean and influenza could be described as U-shaped curves, with the lowest RRs when weekly average AHmean was 11.95 g/m(3), 11.94 g/m(3), and 15.96 g/m(3), respectively. Meta-analysis results showed the cumulative RRs significantly increased as weekly average AHmean fell below 3.86 g/m(3) in the northern region, whereas significantly increased as weekly average AHmean rose above 18.46 g/m(3) and 15.22 g/m(3) in intermediate and southernmost regions, respectively. Both low and high AH might increase influenza risk in China, and the relationship varies geographically. Our findings suggest that public health policies for climate change adaptation should be tailored to the local climate conditions.

Qi, L; Liu, T; Gao, Y; Li, Q; Tang, WG; Tian, DC; Su, K; Xiong, Y; Yang, J; Feng, LZ; Liu, QY

Effect of absolute humidity on influenza activity across different climate regions in China

Environmental Science And Pollution Research

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-19279-8

Under the India Housing for all scheme, 20 million urban houses have to be constructed by 2022, which requires the rate of construction to be around 8000 houses/day. Previous results by the team show that present design methods for affordable buildings and structures in India need improvement. The challenges are the disposal of solid waste generated from agro-industrial activities and the energy peak demand in extremely hot and cold seasons. The development of bio-based urban infrastructure which can adapt to the climatic conditions has been proposed. Inclusion of sustainable materials such as agro-industrial by-products and insulation materials has resulted in effective environmental sustainability and climate change adaptability. Precast components are highlighted as a suitable solution for this purpose as well as to fulfil the need of mass housing. India has a lesser record in implementing this prefab technology when compared to a global view. For the first time, a novel and sustainable prefab housing solution is tested for scale-up using industrial waste of co-fired blended ash (CBA) and the results are presented here. A model house of real scale measuring 3 x 3 x 3 m(3) was considered as a base case and is compared with 17 other combinations of model house with varying alignment of prefab panels. Comparison was made with commercially available fly ash brick and CBA brick with a conventional roof slab. A simulation study was conducted regarding cost and energy analysis for all the 18 cases. Various brick and panel compositions with CBA for housing were tried and the superior composition was selected. Similarly, 18 model houses of real scale were simulated, with different combinations of walls made of bricks or panels and different building orientations, to check the impact on energy peak cooling and cost. Results show that peak cooling load can be reduced by six times with bio-based prefab panels. Prefab construction can be considered for mass housing ranging above 100 housing units, each consisting of an area of 25 m(2).

Chippagiri, R; Gavali, HR; Ralegaonkar, RV; Riley, M; Shaw, A; Bras, A

Application of Sustainable Prefabricated Wall Technology for Energy Efficient Social Housing

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su13031195

Temperature and wind are major meteorological factors that affect the takeoff and landing performance of aircraft. Warmer temperatures and the associated decrease in air density in future climate, and changes to crosswind and tailwind, can potentially impact aircraft performance. This study evaluates projected changes to aircraft takeoff performance, in terms of weight restriction days and strong tailwind and crosswind occurrences, for 13 major airports across Canada, for three categories of aircraft used for long-, medium- and short-haul flights. To this end, two five-member ensembles of transient climate change simulations performed with a regional climate model, for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, are analyzed. Results suggest that the projected increases in weight restriction days associated with the increases in daily maximum temperatures vary with aircraft category and airfield location, with larger increases noted for airfields in the south central regions of Canada. Although avoiding takeoff during the warmest period of the day could be a potential solution, analysis focused on the warmest and coolest periods of the day suggests more weight restriction hours even during the coolest period of the day, for these airfields. Though RCP8.5 in general suggests larger changes to weight restriction hours compared to RCP4.5, the differences between the two scenarios are more prominent for the coolest part of the day, as projected changes to daily minimum temperatures occur at a much faster rate for RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5, and also due to the higher increases in daily minimum temperatures compared to maximum temperatures. Both increases and decreases to crosswind and tailwind are projected, which suggest the need for detailed case studies, especially for those airfields that suggest increases. This study provides useful preliminary insights related to aircraft performance in a warmer climate, which will be beneficial to the aviation sector in developing additional analysis and to support climate change adaptation-related decision-making.

Zhao, YJ; Sushama, L

Aircraft Takeoff Performance in a Changing Climate for Canadian Airports

Atmosphere

https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040418

Seasonal changes in rainfall and temperature brought about by climate change affect water resources availability for rice production areas. There are currently no published applications of the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model on quantified effects of climate variability on irrigation service areas for rice production. The study assessed the impacts of climate change on dependable flow and potential irrigable areas of the Maasin River in Laguna, Philippines. Projected variations of rainfall and temperature in 2020 and 2050 developed using PRECIS model based on special report on emission scenarios were employed. The SWAT model was then used to simulate stream flow for each climate change scenario, from which dependable flows were quantified using flow duration analysis. Diversion water requirements for the rice areas in the watershed were determined using CROPWAT. Based on dependable flows and irrigation demand, the potential irrigable areas were estimated. Calibration and validation of the SWAT model showed satisfactory performance in stream flow simulations. The dependable flow in irrigation systems may decline by more than 50% in 2020 and by as much as 97% in 2050, because of seasonal changes in rainfall. In effect, the potential irrigable area may decrease to less than half of the current service area depending on the level of greenhouse gases emissions. SWAT water balance projections suggest surface runoff during wet seasons and increase annual groundwater recharge are possible sources of supplemental irrigation. Provisions of suitable storage reservoir facilities and groundwater development projects will alleviate water scarce conditions. The study demonstrated a technique that may be applied in other irrigation systems in the Philippines and in other countries to quantify the effects of climate change on dependable flows and potential irrigable areas. It can serve as an input to water resources planning and policy recommendations for climate change adaptation and risk reduction strategies. This technique can also be used to assess water resources in other perennial rivers and its viability for the development of new irrigation systems in the Philippines.

Alejo, LA; Ella, VB

Assessing the impacts of climate change on dependable flow and potential irrigable area using the SWAT model. The case of Maasin River watershed in Laguna, Philippines

Journal Of Agricultural Engineering

https://doi.org/10.4081/jae.2019.941

To better protect our planet and meet the challenges of climate change, greater emphasis in all sciences must be placed on applying data science and image processing technologies to improve methods that predict disasters and enhance the means of dealing with them. As a result, clearing up images allows us to keep an eye on the weather in areas like farms, coastlines, and highways in order to better adapt to climate change and other environmental challenges. When bad weather strikes, like fog, haze, or a combination of the two, it degrades the quality of any images captured. The imaging technology we have now is not good enough to stop the rapid loss of visibility caused by bad weather. For this reason, a dehazing and security model is proposed that is both effective and efficient. Using multiple gamma-corrected images, this model achieves optimal multi-exposure image fusion. To get the best gamma values for improving image quality, the dehazing model is combined with particle swarm optimization. The proposed model's strength lies in its ability to analyze both local and global image features to generate optimally enhanced images. Then, the least significant bit (LSB) steganography techniqueis implemented to secretly insert data into a cover file. LSB values must be altered to conceal the message inside the cover art or text (which is the carrier). The secret message is disassembled and concealed in the final part of the cover image and text so that the attackers cannot find it. The initial three bits of the message are embedded within the concluding three bits of the red component, followed by the subsequent three bits of the message within the final three bits of the green component. The last two bits of the blue component are then employed to carry the remaining two bits of the message. Just two bits in the blue component were employed due to the increased visibility of blue fluctuations to the human eye.

El-Hoseny, HM; Farahat, MA; El-Hag, NA

An efficient Stego-OptDehaz algorithm for image dehazing and metadata concealment

Journal Of Optics-India

https://doi.org/10.1007/s12596-023-01364

Drought and flood abrupt alternations (DFAA) are new challenges under climate change with particular emphasis on its affects related to agriculture. However, current regional DFAA analysis research rarely investigates agri-cultural DFAA with special regards to agricultural elements. In this work, a method based on a daily scale index named the standardized antecedent precipitation evapotranspiration index (SAPEI) and crop characteristics was established to investigate the characteristics of agricultural DFAA during cotton growth stages in the middle-and -lower Yangtze River (MLRYR) during 1961-2020. Additionally, the influence of DFAA on cotton climatic yield in response to flooding and drought was examined by multiple regression. The results demonstrate that the SAPEI efficiently described the relations between cotton climatic yield and the intensities of cotton drought and flood and well characterized cotton DFAA events, especially for short-term events. The most recent decade over the past six decades has seen the most frequent cotton DFAA events, and the only significant trend (p < 0.05) of cotton DFAA frequency was an upward trend in Jiangsu Province. In addition, the middle growth stage of cotton was the most DFAA-affected period within a year. Cotton drought-flood alternations (DF) were more common than flood-drought alternations (FD). The most DF-prone and FD-prone regions differed greatly, but the north-eastern MLRYR was the most DFAA-prone region. In all provinces, the cotton DFAA frequency was significantly and positively related to the cotton drought frequency. Finally, the relations between cotton climatic yield and the intensities of drought and flood were much less significant in the years with more DFAA events than in other years, indicating an obvious negative interaction between drought and flood in cotton DFAA events. This finding, at the regional scale, confirmed previous field-scale conclusions on cotton responses to DFAA stress. In summary, this work provides references for agricultural water management in adapting to climate change.

Qian, L; Meng, HY; Chen, XH; Tang, R

Evaluating agricultural drought and flood abrupt alternation: A case study of cotton in the middle-and-lower Yangtze River, China

Agricultural Water Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2023.108313

Land desertification, one of the gravest eco-environmental problems in the world, has been proven to be critically in-fluenced by climate change. However, the information on the future spatial-temporal patterns of land desertification under climate change has been rarely explored, which restricts the proposal of reasonable desertification control coun-termeasures to adapt to climate change. The agro-pastoral ecotone in northern China (APENC) is the most critical eco-environmental barrier in China and is also a climate change-sensitive area prone to aeolian desertification. We quan-titatively assessed the risk of aeolian desertification in the APENC to climate change and social-economic development in the near-term (2010-2039), mid-term (2040-2069) and long-term (2070-2099) by integrating the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios and the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios using a data-mining approach. The C5.0 decision tree algorithm demonstrated acceptable reliability in aeolian desertification classifica-tion. Aeolian desertification in the APENC shows a significant persistent decreasing trend in 2010-2099 under RCP2.6-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP3 scenarios, whereas first increased in mid-term then decreased under RCP6.0-SSP2 sce-narios. Aeolian desertification risk is lowest under the RCP2.6-SSP1 scenarios, while it is highest under the RCP6.0-SSP2 scenarios. With climate change and socioeconomic development, the risk of aeolian desertification in APENC was generally dominated by a slight grade, i.e., >70 %. While the moderate and severe grades still occupy vast areas, approximately 20 %, and 10 %, respectively, which mainly distributed in and around the Hulunbuir Sandy Land and the Horqin Sandy Land, showing the hot spots of desertification in the APENC. The reversal trend of aeolian desertification risk in the APENC might be initiated by the significant decrease of wind speed. This work highlights the great potential of data-mining approaches on climate change and social-economic development-related land desertifi-cation assessment.

Yue, YJ; Geng, LM; Li, M

The impact of climate change on aeolian desertification: A case of the agro-pastoral ecotone in northern China

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.160126

The impacts of climate change and degradation are increasingly felt in Malaysia. While everyone is vulnerable to these impacts, the health and wellbeing of children are disproportionately affected. We carried out a study composed of two major components. The first component is an environmental epidemiology study comprised of three sub-studies: (i) a global climate model (GCM) simulating specific health-sector climate indices; (ii) a time-series study to estimate the risk of childhood respiratory disease attributable to ambient air pollution; and (iii) a case-crossover study to identify the association between haze and under-five mortality in Malaysia. The GCM found that Malaysia has been experiencing increasing rainfall intensity over the years, leading to increased incidences of other weather-related events. The time-series study revealed that air quality has worsened, while air pollution and haze have been linked to an increased risk of hospitalization for respiratory diseases among children. Although no clear association between haze and under-five mortality was found in the case-crossover study, the lag patterns suggested that health effects could be more acute if haze occurred over a longer duration and at a higher intensity. The second component consists of three community surveys on marginalized children conducted (i) among the island community of Pulau Gaya, Sabah; (ii) among the indigenous Temiar tribe in Pos Kuala Mu, Perak; and (iii) among an urban poor community (B40) in PPR Sg. Bonus, Kuala Lumpur. The community surveys are cross-sectional studies employing a socio-ecological approach using a standardized questionnaire. The community surveys revealed how children adapt to climate change and environmental degradation. An integrated model was established that consolidates our overall research processes and demonstrates the crucial interconnections between environmental challenges exacerbated by climate change. It is recommended that Malaysian schools adopt a climate-smart approach to education to instill awareness of the impending climate change and its cascading impact on children's health from early school age.

Sahani, M; Othman, H; Kwan, SC; Juneng, L; Ibrahim, MF; Hod, R; Zaini, ZI; Mustafa, M; Nnafie, I; Ching, LC; Dambul, R; Varkkey, H; Phung, VLH; Mamood, SNH; Karim, N; Abu Bakar, NF; Wahab, MIA; Zulfakar, SS; Rosli, Y

Impacts of climate change and environmental degradation on children in Malaysia

Frontiers In Public Health

https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.909779

Soybean is an important oil crop in China, and the national focus of soybean production is in Northeast China. In order to achieve high-stable yield, it is crucial to acknowledge the impacts of mean climate and extreme climate indices on soybean yield and yield components. In this study, based on the weather data from 61 counties from 1981 to 2017 in Northeast China, we assessed the impacts ofmean climate and extreme climate indices on soybean observed yield and simulated yield. Mean climate include effective growing degree days (GDD(10)), precipitation (Pre), and solar radiation (SR); extreme climate indices include the number of cool days during seed-filling period (C-15), the number of cool days during 15 days before anthesis (C-17), the number of hot days (H-30), maximum amount of 5 Day accumulated precipitation (P-5), and consecutive dry days (CDD)). We used the DSSAT-CROPGRO-Soybean model to identify the main yield components for soybean. The results showed that observed soybean yield reduced by 3.57% due to the collective changes in the eight study climate indices. Increases in GDD(10), decreases in Pre, and decreases in SR caused a 3.96%, -3.89%, and - 0.48% change in soybean yield, respectively. Decreases in C-15 and C-17 led to a 5.36% increase in soybean yield; increases in H-30, P-5, and CDD caused a 5.75%, 0.30%, and 1.14% reduction in soybean yield, respectively. By comparing the response of observed and simulated soybean yield to climate indices (excluding P-5) in the DSSAT-CROPGRO-Soybean model, we identified the key yield components for soybean as the number of pods and seed weight. The negative impacts on the number of pods and seed weight were mainly attributed to changes in Pre and H-30 from anthesis to podding and during seed-filling period. Our results could be used to assist the local soybean community adapt to climate change.

Guo, SB; Guo, E; Zhang, ZT; Dong, MQ; Wang, X; Fu, ZZ; Guan, KX; Zhang, WM; Zhang, WJ; Zhao, J; Liu, ZJ; Zhao, C; Yang, XG

Impacts of mean climate and extreme climate indices on soybean yield and yield components in Northeast China

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156284

This article is a collation and synthesis of the literature review with the focus on the vulnerability of rural women in developing countries to climate change on the one hand and being pro-active in adapting to climate change on the other. The geographic coverage of the literature is global but with specific examples from India. The information presented in this paper is derived from diverse sources including journal articles and thematic books, and indicates severe adverse impacts not only on women's livelihood opportunities but also on exacerbating the workload and fatigue while decreasing their self esteem and forcing them to undertake some high risks and hazardous activities. The literature indicates that poverty, gender inequality, insecure land rights, heavy reliance on agriculture, less access to education and information are among the principal reasons for their vulnerability to climate change. The vulnerability is also confounded by the meager asset base, social marginalization, lack of mobility and exclusion from the decision-making processes in response to a disaster. However, the literature also shows that women are not only the passive victims of climate change but are also pro-active and agents of hope for adaptation to and mitigation of abrupt climate change. They utilize their experience and expertise to reduce the adverse impacts by adopting prudent strategies. They are also concerned about environmental issues, and are highly supportive of policies regarding environmental restoration. Large knowledge gaps exist regarding the vulnerability of women to changing and uncertain climate especially in arid regions. Authors of this article suggest some action plans and strategies to minimize vulnerability to climate change such as empowering women economically and educationally, organizing training and outreach programmes, and involving them in formal climate change mitigation and adaptation policies and programmes. Authors also outline research needed in order to identify and implement strategies regarding climate change. Collective and continuous efforts are critical to finding the sustainable solutions for this global phenomenon which is adversely impacting the most vulnerable but critically important members of the society. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Yadav, SS; Lal, R

Vulnerability of women to climate change in arid and semi-arid regions: The case of India and South Asia

Journal Of Arid Environments

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2017.08.001

Abnormal climatic changes and related disasters are increasing in prevalence, with many negative impacts on ecosystems and agricultural production. The area of land in China is vast, including diverse terrain and climate types, and a substantial area is used to grow food crops. Therefore, climate change is having a huge impact on China's grain production. Currently, the relationship between climate change and carbon emissions during grain production and the underlying mechanism have not been fully clarified. Therefore, this study used an ordinary least squares regression (OLS) model and the system generalized method of moments (SYS-GMM) to examine the influence of climatic change and carbon emissions during grain production, and we constructed mediation effect models to explore the mechanism of influence between them by utilizing panel data in China from 2000 to 2020. In addition, we also examined the adjustment effect of green technology progress and farmland scale. The study found that China's carbon emissions during grain production increased from 2000 to 2015 and then presented a decreasing trend after 2015. We found that the annual average temperature has a prominent positive effect on carbon emissions during grain production, while the annual average rainfall has a negative effect. Among them, temperature changes mainly lead to the increase in carbon emissions during grain production through the increase in fertilizer use and multiple cropping index, but the mechanism of rainfall changes' impact on carbon emissions during grain production is still unclear. In addition, green technology progress and farmland scale play adjustment roles in the impact of climate change on carbon emissions during grain production, and they could significantly suppress carbon emissions. On the basis of the conclusions in this paper, we propose that strengthening climate change adaptation is an important prerequisite for reducing carbon emissions during grain production. Furthermore, China should continue to reduce fertilizer use, facilitate the application of agriculture green technology, and expand the scale of farmland to achieve agricultural carbon emission reduction.

Liu, MZY; Liu, H

Influence of Climate Change on Carbon Emissions during Grain Production and Its Mechanism

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su151310237

The commercial apple production in Norway is limited to the small regions along the fjords in the southwest part of the country and around lakes or near the sea in the southeast with favorable climate. Due to the rapid rate of climate change over the recent decades, it is expected that suitable heat conditions for apple growing will expand to the areas that were previously too cold. This study analyses the heat suitability of future climate (2021-2100) under the RCP8.5 scenario for 6 common apple varieties in Norway: Discovery, Gravenstein, Summerred, Aroma, Rubinstep and Elstar. Previously established heat requirement criteria (based on the temperature threshold for the full blooming and growing degree days sum between the full bloom and harvest) are applied to the temperature outputs of the regional climate models downscaled to 1 km resolution. The assessment indicates that as temperature rises, heat conditions suitable for cultivation of all 6 apple varieties will expand. According to the ensemble median value, areas with the favorable heat conditions for growing at least one of the considered apple varieties will increase 25 times in the period 2021-2040 and 60 times in the period 2041-2060, compared to the referent period 1971-2000. At the same time, areas suitable for all 6 apple varieties will increase 3 times in the first, and 3.8 times in the latter period. The favorable areas will advance from south and southeast northwards and inland in the eastern region, along the west and northwestern coastline towards higher latitudes, and along continental parts of fjords. The fastest expansion of heat suitable conditions is expected for Discovery and Gravenstein. The findings of this study are relevant for zoning apple production future potential and for strategical planning of climate change adaptation measures within the sector. Weather-related risks, such as risks from winter low temperatures, spring frost, drought and extreme precipitation were not considered.

Mandic, MV; Vimic, AV; Aksic, MF; Meland, M

Climate Potential for Apple Growing in Norway-Part 2: Assessment of Suitability of Heat Conditions under Future Climate Change

Atmosphere

https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14060937

This study quantifies the impacts of climate change on the mine life cycle (development, operation and closure phases) of 30 mines located in the northern regions of Canada. To this end, climate projections based on a five -member transient climate change simulation ensemble, performed using a state-of-the art regional climate model, spanning the 1991-2050 period, corresponding to the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emis-sion scenario are used. A reanalysis-driven simulation for the 1991-2010 period compared against available observations confirm suitability of the model for application in climate change simulations. Assessment of projected changes to mine-relevant climate variables that are important from structural integrity and operation perspectives reveal potential vulnerabilities and opportunities. Active layer thickness increases in the 0.3-2 m range in permafrost regions, coupled with increases in flood probability, as reflected in snow-melt rate increases in the 0.14-6.77% range and increases in the 100-year return levels of daily maximum rainfall in the 5-50% range, suggest potential impacts on the structural integrity of mine infrastructure, such as slope instability and foundation settlement of tailings dams, and supporting infrastructure such as ice/all-season roads. Increases in soil moisture, projected in the 0-11% range, at a few mines, suggest potential impacts on material handling systems, such as increases in the traction factor of the muck-haul and tire rolling resistance, that can lead to low productivity. Projected increases to wind speeds in the 5-10% range for the northernmost regions suggest po-tential impacts on the tailings management facility in terms of increases in tailings resuspension. Overall, this study identified northernmost and northeastern mines to be more vulnerable, with air/soil temperature, pre-cipitation and wind speed being the most influential climate variables. This systematic study, for the first time, has identified potential vulnerabilities of northern Canadian mines, which can inform future high-resolution climate modelling and detailed at-site climate-mine interaction studies that is required for climate-change adaptation related decision-making.

Hashem, K; Sushama, L; Sasmito, AP; Hassani, F; Kumral, M

Climate-mine life cycle interactions for northern Canadian regions

Cold Regions Science And Technology

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2023.103782

Background Malaria epidemics are increasing in East Africa since the 1980s, coincident with rising temperature and widening climate variability. A projected 1-3.5 degrees C rise in average global temperatures by 2100 could exacerbate the epidemics by modifying disease transmission thresholds. Future malaria scenarios for the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) are quantified for projected climate scenarios spanning 2006-2100. Methods Regression relationships are established between historical (1995-2010) clinical malaria and anaemia cases and rainfall and temperature for four East African malaria hotspots. The vector autoregressive moving average processes model, VARMAX (p,q,s), is then used to forecast malaria and anaemia responses to rainfall and temperatures projected with an ensemble of eight General Circulation Models (GCMs) for climate change scenarios defined by three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5). Results Maximum temperatures in the long rainy (March-May) and dry (June-September) seasons will likely increase by over 2.0 degrees C by 2070, relative to 1971-2000, under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Minimum temperatures (June-September) will likely increase by over 1.5-3.0 degrees C under RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The short rains (OND) will likely increase more than the long rains (MAM) by the 2050s and 2070s under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Historical malaria cases are positively and linearly related to the 3-6-month running means of monthly rainfall and maximum temperature. Marked variation characterizes the patterns projected for each of the three scenarios across the eight General Circulation Models, reaffirming the importance of using an ensemble of models for projections. Conclusions The short rains (OND), wet season (MAM) temperatures and clinical malaria cases will likely increase in the Lake Victoria Basin. Climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, including malaria control interventions could reduce the projected epidemics and cases. Interventions should reduce emerging risks, human vulnerability and environmental suitability for malaria transmission.

Ototo, EN; Ogutu, JO; Githeko, A; Said, MY; Kamau, L; Namanya, D; Simiyu, S; Mutimba, S

Forecasting the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Malaria in the Lake Victoria Basin Using Regionalized Climate Projections

Acta Parasitologica

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11686-022-00588-4

Understanding the processes responsible for precipitation and its future change is important to develop plausible and sustainable climate change adaptation strategies, especially in regions with few available observed data like Congo Basin ( CB). This paper investigates the atmospheric circulation processes associated with climate model biases in CB rainfall, and explores drivers of projected rainfall changes. Here we use an ensemble of simulations from the Swedish Regional Climate Model ( RCM) RCA4, driven by eight General Circulation Models ( GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ( CMIP5), for the 1.5. C and 2. C global warming levels ( GWLs), and under the representative concentration pathways ( RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. RCA4 captures reasonably well the observed patterns of CB rainfall seasonality, but shows dry biases independent of seasons and large scale driving atmospheric conditions. While simulations mimic observed peaks in transition seasons ( March- May and September- November), the rain- belt is misplaced southward ( northward) in December- February ( June- August), reducing the latitudinal extent of rainfall. Moreover, ERA- Interim reanalysis driven RCM simulation and RCM- GCM combinations show similar results, indicating the dominance of systematic biases. Modelled dry biases are associated with dry upper- tropospheric layers, resulting from a western outflow stronger than the eastern inflow and related to the northern component of African Easterly Jet. From the analysis of the climate change signal, we found that regional scale responses to anthropogenic forcings vary across GWLs and seasons. Changes of rainfall and moisture divergence are correlated, with values higher in March- May than in September- November, and larger for global warming of 2.0. C than at 1.5. C. There is an increase of zonal moisture divergence fluxes in upper atmospheric layers ( > 700 hPa) under RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5. Moreover, it is found that additional warming of 0.5. C will change the hydrological cycle and water availability in the CB, with potential to cause challenges to water resource management, agriculture, hydro- power generation, sanitation and ecosystems.

Tamoffo, AT; Moufouma-Okia, W; Dosio, A; James, R; Pokam, WM; Vondou, DA; Fotso-Nguemo, TC; Guenang, GM; Kamsu-Tamo, PH; Nikulin, G; Longandjo, GN; Lennard, CJ; Bell, JP; Takong, RR; Haensler, A; Tchotchou, LAD; Nouayou, R

Process-oriented assessment of RCA4 regional climate model projections over the Congo Basin under 1.5. C and 2. C global warming levels: influence of regional moisture fluxes

Climate Dynamics

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04751-y

Climate change poses a challenge to agricultural production and its impacts vary depending on regional focus and on the type of production system. To avoid production losses and make use of emerging potentials, adaptations in agricultural management will inevitably be required. Adaptation responses can broadly be distinguished into (1) short-term incremental responses that farmers often choose autonomously in response to observed changes and based on local knowledge and experiences, and (2) long-term transformative responses that require strategic planning, and which are usually implemented at a larger spatial scale. Models can be used to support decision making at both response levels; thereby, different features of models prove more or less valuable depending on the type of adaptation response. This paper presents a systematic literature review on the state-of-the-art in modelling for adaptation planning in agricultural production systems, investigating the question of which model types can be distinguished and how these types differ in the way they support decision making in agricultural adaptation planning. Five types of models are distinguished: (1) empirical crop models; (2) regional suitability models; (3) biophysical models; (4) meta-models; and (5) decision models. The potential and limitations of these model types for providing decision-support to short-and long-term adaptation planning are discussed. The risk of maladaptation-adaptation that implies negative consequences either in the long term or in a wider context-is identified as a key challenge of adaptation planning that needs more attention. Maladaptation is not only a risk of decision making in the face of incomplete knowledge of future climate impacts on the agricultural production system; but it can also be a threat if the connectedness of the agroecosystem is not sufficiently acknowledged when management adaptations are implemented. Future research supporting climate change adaptation efforts should thus be based on integrated assessments of risk and vulnerabilities (considering climate variability and uncertainty). To secure adaptation success in the long term, frameworks for monitoring management adaptations and their consequences should be institutionalised.

Holzkämper, A

Adapting Agricultural Production Systems to Climate Change-What's the Use of Models?

Agriculture-Basel

https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture7100086

This study employed a Monte-Carlo simulation approach to characterise the uncertainties in climate change induced variations in storage requirements and performance (reliability (time- and volume based), resilience, vulnerability and sustainability) of surface water reservoirs. Using a calibrated rainfall-runoff(R-R) model, the baseline runoff scenario was first simulated. The R-R inputs (rainfall and temperature) were then perturbed using plausible delta-changes to produce simulated climate change runoff scenarios. Stochastic models of the runoff were developed and used to generate ensembles of both the current and climate-change-perturbed future runoff scenarios. The resulting runoff ensembles were used to force simulation models of the behaviour of the reservoir to produce 'populations' of required reservoir storage capacity to meet demands, and the performance. Comparing these parameters between the current and the perturbed provided the population of climate change effects which was then analysed to determine the variability in the impacts. The methodology was applied to the Pong reservoir on the Beas River in northern India. The reservoir serves irrigation and hydropower needs and the hydrology of the catchment is highly influenced by Himalayan seasonal snow and glaciers, and Monsoon rainfall, both of which are predicted to change due to climate change. The results show that required reservoir capacity is highly variable with a coefficient of variation (CV) as high as 0.3 as the future climate becomes drier. Of the performance indices, the vulnerability recorded the highest variability (CV up to 0.5) while the volume-based reliability was the least variable. Such variabilities or uncertainties will, no doubt, complicate the development of climate change adaptation measures; however, knowledge of their sheer magnitudes as obtained in this study will help in the formulation of appropriate policy and technical interventions for sustaining and possibly enhancing water security for irrigation and other uses served by Pong reservoir. (C) 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V.

Soundharajan, BS; Adeloye, AJ; Remesan, R

Evaluating the variability in surface water reservoir planning characteristics during climate change impacts assessment

Journal Of Hydrology

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.04.051

The European Commission (EC) introduced the concept of Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans (SUMPs) as a new planning paradigm with a focus on people's needs Planning for people. This represents a change from traditional planning approaches centred on motorized road traffic/infrastructure provision and a shift towards more sustainable transport options. SUMPs require a long-term and sustainable vision for cities and these are to pay special attention to the participation of citizens and stakeholders and to coordination of policies across sectors (transport, land use, health, energy, and so on). The EC guidelines on developing and implementing SUMPs (EC, 2013) establish the following primary objectives of this new way of planning urban mobility: accessibility and quality of life, as well as sustainability, economic viability, social equity, health and environment quality. Since urban areas in Europe account for 23%-25% of CO2 emissions from transport (EC, 2013b; EEA, 2014), SUMPs are expected to contribute to meet longterm climate change policy goals. However, it is less clear how SUMPs can contribute to address key societal challenges such as equity issues in accessibility. According to the EC guidelines SUMPs are still non-existing concepts in most European member states. However, several cities in Europe and beyond have already formulated and adopted SUMPs. This paper is built on a review of former voluntary SUMPs developed in Portugal. A sample of forty case studies is considered in the analysis. It aims: a) to understand how climate change goals and equity issues in accessibility have been addressed through the first generation of SUMPs; b) to reflect on the role of SUMPs as tools to answer climate change goals without putting at risk social equity issues, and c) to outline further research needs in the SUMP approach. The research results are expected to give insights into social equity needs in urban transport and climate change adaptation policies in Europe. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Arsenio, E; Martens, K; Di Ciommo, F

Sustainable urban mobility plans: Bridging climate change and equity targets?

Research In Transportation Economics

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2016.04.008

Climate variability has been evident on the Mongolian plateau in recent decades. Livelihood adaptation to climate variability is important for local sustainable development. This paper applies an analytical framework focused on adaptation, institutions, and livelihoods to study climate adaptation in the Mongolian grasslands. A household survey was designed and implemented in each of three broad vegetation types in Mongolia and Inner Mongolia. The analytical results show that livelihood adaptation strategies of herders vary greatly across the border between Mongolia and Inner Mongolia, China. Local institutions played important roles in shaping and facilitating livelihood adaptation strategies of herders. Mobility and communal pooling were the two key categories of adaptation strategies in Mongolia, and they were shaped and facilitated by local communal institutions. Storage, livelihood diversification, and market exchange were the three key categories of adaptation strategies in Inner Mongolia, and they were mainly shaped and facilitated by local government and market institutions. Local institutions enhanced but also at times undermined adaptive capacity of herder communities in the two countries, but in different ways. Sedentary grazing has increased livelihood vulnerability of herders to climate variability and change. With grazing sedentarization, the purchase and storage of forage has become an important strategy of herders to adapt to the highly variable climate. The multilevel statistical models of forage purchasing behaviors show that the strategies of livestock management, household financial capital, environmental (i.e., precipitation and vegetation growth) variability, and the status of pasture degradation were the major determinants of this adaptation strategy. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wang, J; Brown, DG; Agrawal, A

Climate adaptation, local institutions, and rural livelihoods: A comparative study of herder communities in Mongolia and Inner Mongolia, China

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.08.014

Through their dam-building activities and subsequent water storage, beaver have the potential to restore riparian ecosystems and offset some of the predicted effects of climate change by modulating streamflow. Thus, it is not surprising that reintroducing beaver to watersheds from which they have been extirpated is an often-used restoration and climate-adaptation strategy. Identifying sites for reintroduction, however, requires detailed information about habitat factors-information that is not often available at broad spatial scales. Here we explore the potential for beaver relocation throughout the Snohomish River Basin in Washington, USA with a model that identifies some of the basic building blocks of beaver habitat suitability and does so by relying solely on remotely sensed data. More specifically, we developed a generalized intrinsic potential model that draws on remotely sensed measures of stream gradient, stream width, and valley width to identify where beaver could become established if suitable vegetation were to be present. Thus, the model serves as a preliminary screening tool that can be applied over relatively large extents. We applied the model to 5,019 stream km and assessed the ability of the model to correctly predict beaver habitat by surveying for beavers in 352 stream reaches. To further assess the potential for relocation, we assessed land ownership, use, and land cover in the landscape surrounding stream reaches with varying levels of intrinsic potential. Model results showed that 33% of streams had moderate or high intrinsic potential for beaver habitat. We found that no site that was classified as having low intrinsic potential had any sign of beavers and that beaver were absent from nearly three quarters of potentially suitable sites, indicating that there are factors preventing the local population from occupying these areas. Of the riparian areas around streams with high intrinsic potential for beaver, 38% are on public lands and 17% are on large tracts of privately-owned timber land. Thus, although there are a large number of areas that could be suitable for relocation and restoration using beavers, current land use patterns may substantially limit feasibility in these areas.

Dittbrenner, BJ; Pollock, MM; Schilling, JW; Olden, JD; Lawler, JJ; Torgersen, CE

Modeling intrinsic potential for beaver (Castor canadensis) habitat to inform restoration and climate change adaptation

Plos One

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0192538

Making climate-sensitive economic sectors resilient to climate trends and shocks, through adaptation to climate change and managing uncertainties associated with climate extremes, will require effective use of climate information to help practitioners make climate-informed decisions. The provision of weather and climate information will depend on the availability of climate data and its presentation in formats that are useful for decision making at different levels. However, in many places around the world, including most African countries, the collection of climate data has been seriously inadequate, and even when available, poorly accessible. On the other hand, the availability of climate data by itself may not lead to the uptake and use of such data. These data must be presented in user-friendly formats addressing specific climate information needs in order to be used for decision-making by governments, as well as the public and private sectors. The generated information should also be easily accessible. The Enhancing National Climate Services (ENACTS) initiative, led by Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), has been making efforts to overcome these challenges by supporting countries to improve the available climate data, as well as access to and use of climate information products at relevant spatial and temporal scales. Challenges to the availability of climate data are alleviated by combining data from the national weather observation network with remote sensing and other global proxies to generate spatially and temporally complete climate datasets. Access to climate information products is enhanced by developing an online mapping service that provides a user-friendly interface for analyzing and visualizing climate information products such as maps and graphs.

Nsengiyumva, G; Dinku, T; Cousin, R; Khomyakov, I; Vadillo, A; Faniriantsoa, R; Grossi, A

Transforming Access to and Use of Climate Information Products Derived from Remote Sensing and In Situ Observations

Remote Sensing

https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13224721

Building communities that are resilient and adaptive to climate change requires the development of education strategies that train community members in higher order thinking skills that can be used to solve complex environmental problems. This study provides an empirical test of hypotheses within social-ecological systems resilience theory that have suggested metacognitive learning strategies could increase resilience thinking skills such as scenarios thinking, systems thinking, and the ability to interpret and apply ecological data in complex problem solving. During a 6-week long ecology unit with 108 seventh-grade students, we taught half the students using standard inquiry teaching methods and the other half using the same method, with the addition of a daily metacognitive learning intervention. We investigated the short-term (after six weeks of intervention) and long-term (1 yr after the intervention ended) effects of the intervention on student's metacognitive ability and resilience thinking skills. Over the long term, we found a modest increase in the metacognitive ability of students who received the daily metacognitive journaling exercise. Interview data suggest that the structured metacognitive practice did most to improve the resilience thinking level of students who had low resilience thinking ability prior to the intervention period. However, the interaction between pre-treatment ability level and the treatment group was not detected in the written assessment data. These data suggest that the metacognitive learning intervention we used can benefit metacognitive ability over the long term, but has limited transferability to resilience thinking skills for most students. We suggest additional instructional practices for implementing metacognitive teaching approaches that could enhance the generalizability of their benefits across resilience thinking skills and student's ability levels.

Spellman, KV; Deutsch, A; Mulder, CPH; Carsten-Conner, LD

Metacognitive learning in the ecology classroom: A tool for preparing problem solvers in a time of rapid change?

Ecosphere

https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.1411

Processes of designing for systemic innovation for sustainable development (SD) through the lens of three long-term case studies are reported. All case studies, which originated from the SLIM (Social Learning for the Integrated Management and Sustainable Use of Water at Catchment Scale) Project, funded within the EU Fifth Framework Program (2001-2004), constitute inquiry pathways that are explored using a critical incident approach. The initial starting conditions for each inquiry pathway are compared; significant pathway dependencies are identified which foster the development of social learning processes locally, but constrain their uptake and embedding across the wider system of interest. In the first case study, in England & Wales, promising developments in the application of social learning approaches to river basin planning over an initial 3-year period were subsequently marginalised, only to resurface towards the end of the 10-year period of study. In the second, South African case study, significant spaces for social learning and innovation in integrated water resources management were opened up over a five year period but closed down again, primarily as the result of lack of policy support by national government. The third, Italian, case study was designed to assess options for adapting to climate change by opening up new learning spaces between researchers, stakeholders and policy makers. A case for investing in local level systemic innovation through social-learning praxis design approaches and in learning processes around well contextualised case-studies is supported. However, concomitant investment by policy makers in social learning as an alternative, but complementary, governance mechanism for systemic innovation for SD is needed. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Colvin, J; Blackmore, C; Chimbuya, S; Collins, K; Dent, M; Goss, J; Ison, R; Roggero, PP; Seddaiu, G

In search of systemic innovation for sustainable development: A design praxis emerging from a decade of social learning inquiry

Research Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2013.12.010

Agricultural policies in Kenya aim to improve farmers' livelihoods. With projected climate change, these policies are short of mechanisms that promote farmers' adaptation. As a result, smallholders are confronted with a variety of challenges including climate change, which hinders their agricultural production. Local knowledge can be instrumental in assisting smallholders to cope with climate change and variability. In this paper, we present empirical evidence that demonstrates local knowledge, perceptions and adaptations to climate change and variability amongst smallholders of Laikipia district of Kenya. A Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) calculated for one station is compared with smallholders' perceptions. Data was collected using qualitative and quantitative methods in Umande and Muhonia sub-locations. Qualitative data included 46 transcripts from focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Quantitative data is derived from 206 interviewees. We analyzed qualitative and quantitative data using Atlas-ti and SPSS respectively. According to smallholders' perceptions, climatic variability is increasingly changing. Local perceptions include decreasing rainfalls, increasing temperatures, increasing frosts and increasing hunger. The PDSI shows a trend towards severe droughts in the last four decades, which is in accordance with farmers' perceptions. Smallholders use a combination of coping and adaptation strategies to respond to variability, including, among others, diversification of crop varieties, migration and sale of livestock. Significant relationships exist between drought perceptions and some adaptations such as migration and sale of livestock. Farmers have an in-depth knowledge of climatic variability, which they use to inform their coping and adaptation strategies. Knowledge of climatic perceptions and adaptations are vital entry points for decision makers and policy makers to learn how and where to enhance the adaptive capacity of smallholders in rainy and drought periods.

Ogalleh, SA; Vogl, CR; Eitzinger, J; Hauser, M

Local Perceptions and Responses to Climate Change and Variability: The Case of Laikipia District, Kenya

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su4123302

Background Understanding coupled human-environment factors which promote Aedes aegypti abundance is critical to preventing the spread of Zika, chikungunya, yellow fever and dengue viruses. High temperatures and aridity theoretically make arid lands inhospitable for Ae. aegypti mosquitoes, yet their populations are well established in many desert cities. Methods We investigated associations between socioeconomic and built environment factors and Ae. aegypti abundance in Maricopa County, Arizona, home to Phoenix metropolitan area. Maricopa County Environmental Services conducts weekly mosquito surveillance with CO2-baited Encephalitis Vector Survey or BG-Sentinel traps at > 850 locations throughout the county. Counts of adult female Ae. aegypti from 2014 to 2017 were joined with US Census data, precipitation and temperature data, and 2015 land cover from high-resolution (1 m) aerial images from the National Agricultural Imagery Program. Results From 139,729 trap-nights, 107,116 Ae. aegypti females were captured. Counts were significantly positively associated with higher socioeconomic status. This association was partially explained by higher densities of non-native landscaping in wealthier neighborhoods; a 1% increase in the density of tree cover around the trap was associated with a similar to 7% higher count of Ae. aegypti (95% CI: 6-9%). Conclusions Many models predict that climate change will drive aridification in some heavily populated regions, including those where Ae. aegypti are widespread. City climate change adaptation plans often include green spaces and vegetation cover to increase resilience to extreme heat, but these may unintentionally create hospitable microclimates for Ae. aegypti. This possible outcome should be addressed to reduce the potential for outbreaks of Aedes-borne diseases in desert cities.

Coalson, JE; Richard, DM; Hayden, MH; Townsend, J; Damian, D; Smith, K; Monaghan, A; Ernst, KC

Aedes aegypti abundance in urban neighborhoods of Maricopa County, Arizona, is linked to increasing socioeconomic status and tree cover

Parasites & Vectors

https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-023-05966-z

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) projection has attracted much atten-tion, whereas there are few investigations on the future changes of the EASM northern boundary. The boundary migration would influence the distribution of precipitation and the related vegetation, and its projection is important for policy development of climate change adaptation. In this study, based on the median of 22 selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, the linear trends of meridional movement of the EASM northern boundary are found to be 0.45-1.39 degrees of latitude during 2015-2099 based on the three precipitation-based metrics under three shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios. Spatially, the multimetric climatological EASM northern boundary displays a 70-170 km northwestward advance during 2080-2099 compared to 1981-2010. Such an advance also holds true for most individual models, but the migration magni-tudes vary with metrics, scenarios and models. The strengthened EASM in associ-ation with the intensified land-sea thermal contrast and the enhanced atmospheric water vapour content in response to global warming account for the northwestward advance of the EASM northern boundary, which is related to the increased possibility of the negative phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation in the future. Additionally, the thermodynamic component due to the increased mois-ture content contributes more than the dynamic term arising from the reinforced EASM circulations to the intensified precipitation and northwestward migration of the EASM northern boundary. The future advance of the EASM northern boundary favours a northern flood and southern drought precipitation pattern over eastern China, which would partly mitigate drought conditions in northern arid regions.

Wu, BL; Lang, XM; Jiang, DB

Northwestward advance of the northern boundary of the East Asian summer monsoon over the 21st century in CMIP6 projections

International Journal Of Climatology

https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8062

'Environmental non-migration' refers to the spatial continuity of an individual's residence at the same place despite environmental risk. Moreover, this is a largely under-researched topic, especially within the climate change adaptation discourse, but is increasingly coming to the attention of scientists and policymakers for sustainable adaptation planning. So far, there exists hardly any conceptual and methodical guidelines to study environmental non-migration. Considering this research gap, this paper explores environmental non-migration based on the notion that factors of livelihood resilience can partly explain the decision to non-migration. Here, livelihood resilience is seen as an outcome of the interactions between societal and environmental conditions of an individual household. These conditions inform the decisions (to stay or to migrate) taken in case of a hazard or creeping environmental change. Their influence generalises the spectrum of migration decision-making (to stay or to migrate), which is conceptualised by four broad outcomes categorised into voluntary and involuntary, and non-migrants and migrants. This analytical concept is operationalised through an empirical example in southwest coastal Bangladesh. The results suggest that the Livelihood Resilience Index (LRI) relates to the voluntary nature of migration decisions once they are made. Still, only a household's resilience cannot predict the decisions the household makes to stay or migrate. The paper concludes that the proposed analytical concept, with its exemplary factors, maybe an initial means to holistically explore migration decisions in the context of natural hazards and climate and environmental change. However, environmental non-migration remains complex and multi-faceted, and its assessment requires deeper examination at various scales.

Mallick, B; Priovashini, C; Schanze, J

I can migrate, but why should I?-voluntary non-migration despite creeping environmental risks

Humanities & Social Sciences Communications

https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-023-01516-1

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the human contribution to the observed intensification of precipitation extremes at different spatial scales. We consider the annual maxima of the logarithm of 1-day (Rx1day) and 5-day (Rx5day) precipitation amounts for 1950-2014 over the global land area, four continents, and several regions, and compare observed changes with expected responses to external forcings as simulated by CanESM2 in a large-ensemble experiment and by multiple models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We use a novel detection and attribution analysis method that is applied directly to station data in the areas considered without prior processing such as gridding, spatial or temporal dimension reduction, or transformation to unitless indices and uses climate models only to obtain estimates of the space-time pattern of extreme precipitation response to external forcing. The influence of anthropogenic forcings on extreme precipitation is detected over the global land area, three continental regions (the western Northern Hemisphere, western Eurasia, and eastern Eurasia), and many smaller IPCC regions, including central North America, East Asia, east-central Asia, eastern Europe, eastern North America, northern Europe, and western Siberia for Rx1day, and central North America, eastern Europe, eastern North America, northern Europe, the Russian Arctic region, and western Siberia for Rx5day. Consistent results are obtained using forcing response estimates from either CanESM2 or CMIP6. Anthropogenic influence is estimated to have substantially decreased the approximate waiting time between extreme annual maximum events in regions where anthropogenic influence has been detected, which has important implications for infrastructure design and climate change adaptation policy.

Sun, QH; Zwiers, F; Zhang, XB; Yan, J

Quantifying the Human Influence on the Intensity of Extreme 1-and 5-Day Precipitation Amounts at Global, Continental, and Regional Scales

Journal Of Climate

https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0028.1

Transnational climate governance has mainly been preoccupied with climate change mitigation, both in practice and as studied in academic literature. However, transnationally governed adaptation initiatives are emerging and increasing in scale. This paper analyses the effectiveness of transnational adaptation initiatives as a particular knowledge gap in this changing evolving governance landscape. Based on a new dataset of 40 initiatives that are governing adaptation across borders and that include non-state actors, it offers an overview assessment. It asks: do transnational adaptation initiatives achieve their stated goals and objectives, and which factors explain their ability to contribute to effective climate change adaptation? Drawing on transnational climate and sustainable development governance literature, an analytical framework is developed to assess to what extent actors', process', institutional design' and context' can explain effective outcomes. The assessment found that while almost two-thirds of the initiatives were highly effective in achieving goals and objectives by producing outputs, only one-third were highly effective in achieving outcomes, in the sense of leading to substantial change in behaviour of target groups. Where initiatives are effective, the main factors determining success are strong leadership and orchestration, good process management and staff resources, a focus on standard-setting and service provision rather than knowledge transfer, a high level of institutionalisation through binding rules for partners, and good coordination with international regimes. Perhaps less expected in view of the voluntary involvement of actors in transnational adaptation initiatives, initiatives based on hard' functions (i.e. standard-setting and service provision as opposed to knowledge transfer) and binding rules for partners were found to be more effective.

Dzebo, A

Effective governance of transnational adaptation initiatives

International Environmental Agreements-Politics Law And Economics

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10784-019-09445-8

In Nunavik, chlorine-treated water is delivered daily, by tank truck, to the houses, where it is stored in tanks. A large part of the Inuit population continues to depend on an untreated water supply, however. This traditional activity poses certain risks in a region with an abundant presence of migratory animals. Nunavik has also experienced significant climate warming since the beginning of the last decade. The main goal of this study, which took place in 2003 and 2004, was to evaluate drinking habits that may place Nunavik residents at an increased risk of gastroenteric diseases in the context of climate change. During the Amundsen cruise in fall 2004, we observed that raw water from the collection sites most frequently visited (brooks, takes, rivers) was of good quality in most of the villages. Regular monitoring of these sites is necessary, however, and the public should be warned when the sites become contaminated. Of particular concern was the water from the individual storage containers, which was much more contaminated than the water at the collection sites. To develop or improve the climate change adaptation strategies in this area, we propose 1) establishing an appropriate environmental monitoring system, 2) improving wastewater disposal and municipal water systems, 3) involving nursing staff in microbiological testing of the water at community sites, 4) raising public awareness of the risks related to raw water consumption, and 5) gathering strategic health information during the periods of the year when cases of gastroenteric diseases are most frequent, in order to establish whether there is a link between these disorders and water quality.

Martin, D; Bélanger, D; Gosselin, P; Brazeau, J; Furgal, C; Déry, S

Drinking water and potential threats to human health in Nunavik:: Adaptation strategies under climate change conditions

Arctic

None

With the growth in collaborative engagements for solutions to society's complex problems, the role of co-designing to address climate change issues of low-income human settlements is becoming significant. This informed a design workshop/charette hosted at the Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria. Twenty-six young architects and urban planners worked with non-academic stakeholders from coastal communities in Igbokoda, Ondo State during the five-day event. Structural (building and neighborhood setting) and non-structural (programmatic) ideas for climate adaptation and resilient housing in the low-income coastal communities were outcomes of the collaborative work. This paper reports and draws lessons from the process and outcomes of the design workshop/charette. The outcomes were well-received by the stakeholders and follow-up projects have since been conceived. This thus affirms the value of collaborative approach towards exploring and co-producing solutions in the era of a changing climate.

Adegun, OB; Olusoga, OO

A Design Workshop's Contribution to Climate Adaptation in Coastal Settlements in Nigeria

Urban Science

https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci4030033

Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in the number and strength of natural hazards produced by climatic events. This paper presents some examples of the experiences of community-based organisations (CBOs) and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) of variations in climate, and looks at how they have incorporated their findings into the design and implementation of local adaptation strategies. Local organisations integrate climate change and climatic hazards into the design and development of their projects as a means of adapting to their new climatic situation. Projects designed to boost the resilience of local livelihoods are good examples of local adaptation strategies. To upscale these adaptation initiatives, there is a need to improve information exchange between CBOs, NGOs and academia. Moreover, there is a need to bridge the gap between scientific and local knowledge in order to create projects capable of withstanding stronger natural hazards.

Blanco, AVR

Local initiatives and adaptation to climate change

Disasters

None

BackgroundAmbient heat exposure is increasing due to climate change and is known to affect the health of pregnant and postpartum women, and their newborns. Evidence for the effectiveness of interventions to prevent heat health outcomes in east Africa is limited. Codesigning and integrating local-indigenous and conventional knowledge is essential to develop effective adaptation to climate change.MethodsFollowing qualitative research on heat impacts in a community in Kilifi, Kenya, we conducted a two-day codesign workshop to inform a set of interventions to reduce the impact of heat exposure on maternal and neonatal health. Participants were drawn from a diverse group of purposively selected influencers, implementers, policy makers, service providers and community members. The key domains of focus for the discussion were: behavioral practices, health facilities and health system factors, home environment, water scarcity, and education and awareness. Following the discussions and group reflections, data was transcribed, coded and emerging intervention priorities ranked based on the likelihood of success, cost effectiveness, implementation feasibility, and sustainability.ResultsTwenty one participants participated in the codesign discussions. Accessibility to water supplies, social behavior-change campaigns, and education were ranked as the top three most sustainable and effective interventions with the highest likelihood of success. Prior planning and contextualizing local set-up, cross-cultural and religious practices and budget considerations are important in increasing the chances of a successful outcome in codesign.ConclusionCodesign of interventions on heat exposure with diverse groups of participants is feasible to identify and prioritize adaptation interventions. The codesign workshop was used as an opportunity to build capacity among facilitators and participants as well as to explore interventions to address the impact of heat exposure on pregnant and postpartum women, and newborns. We successfully used the codesign model in co-creating contextualized socio-culturally acceptable interventions to reduce the risk of heat on maternal and neonatal health in the context of climate change. Our interventions can be replicated in other similar areas of Africa and serve as a model for co-designing heat-health adaptation.

Lusambili, A; Khaemba, P; Agoi, F; Oguna, M; Nakstad, B; Scorgie, F; Filippi, V; Hess, J; Roos, N; Chersich, M; Kovats, S; Luchters, S

Process and outputs from a community codesign workshop on reducing impact of heat exposure on pregnant and postpartum women and newborns in Kilifi, Kenya

Frontiers In Public Health

https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1146048

Soil erosion, expected to increase with the potential effects of climate change, is the main problem that reduces the useful storage capacity of river dam reservoirs. This problem threatens the safety and sustainability of water and food resources. Over the last few years, a large number of numerical models have been developed and used to predict the current, and future state of soil erosion with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) based erosion models. This study aims to estimate the annual average amount of soil loss in the Naip dam basin in Turkiye Thrace by using GIS-based Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) erosion models and analyze the forecast outputs verified by the reservoir sedimentation results within the framework of the effects of climate change. Thus, the effects of future climate change on the spatiotemporal change of erosion rate and reservoir sedimentation were tried to be explored. Study data were organized using the ArcGIS Soil Erosion Tool, and annual average soil loss was calculated based on the dam basin's RUSLE and MUSLE erosion models. Accordingly, it was understood that the average annual soil loss in the basin area was between 0.31 t ha-1 yr-1 (RUSLE) and 0.36 t ha-1 yr-1 (MUSLE). These results were checked by the results of reservoir sedimentation determined by the volume changes of the Naip dam. RUSLE and reservoir sedimentation results were found to be compatible with each other. Therefore, the RUSLE erosion model was rerun with climate change data for 9-year periods between 2021 and 2050. Because of the predicted effects of climate change, it is understood that erosion will increase more in this area in the future. Thus, helpful and guiding information was provided to the decision makers for the dam reservoir sedimentation management, the dam's sustainability, and the extension of the reservoir life. In terms of adaptation to climate change, it is recommended to take measures to reduce or prevent erosion in the basin area.

Özsahin, E

Climate change effect on soil erosion using different erosion models: A case study in the Naip Dam basin, T?rkiye

Computers And Electronics In Agriculture

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2023.107711

An eight-year experiment studied the sustainability, profitability, interdependencies and ecosystem services of crop-livestock integration in an arecanut plantation (ABMS) in humid tropics of India during 2007-2014. Arecanut registered similar kernel yields in both sole and intercropped systems in all years. The sole Napier Bajra Hybrid (NBH) recorded significantly higher green fodder yield than intercropped NBH. There was 5-47% yield reduction in intercropped NBH in different plantations over sole NBH on unit area basis. The total standing carbon stocks were significantly higher in arecanut + fodder system (210-228 t ha(-1)) than arecanut sole and fodder sole. Total water use was 47 to 50% higher in arecanut sole (2340-3280 m(3)) compared to ABMS (1178-1546 m(3)) per unit area. The contribution of livestock to total outflows was high (82 to 87%) from 2008 to 2014 except in establishment year of dairy unit (54%). On an average, organic waste recycling potential of arecanut + dairy unit was 13.7 t ha(-1) and dairy unit alone contributed to 87% of the manure production. Total nutrient supply from ABMS after recycling to the system was estimated at 218 kg N, 51.8 kg P and 33 kg K that can meet N and P demand of 1.7 and 2.2 ha of arecanut, respectively. The farm gate nutrient surplus was five times higher than utilization in ABMS that enables farmers to earn higher profits. The use of hard laterite soil for livestock enterprises like dairy, fishery and fodder cultivation resulted in improved resource use efficiency and profits per unit area per unit time. Dairy was economical under all scenarios due to on-farm fodder availability throughout the year. Our main recommendations are to include livestock components in arecanut ecosystem to adapt to climate change scenario, to provide ecosystem services and to reduce ecological imbalances arising due to continuous cultivation of perennial crop. Crown Copyright (C) 2015 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sujatha, S; Bhat, R

Resource use and benefits of mixed farming approach in arecanut ecosystem in India

Agricultural Systems

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2015.10.005

As the magnitude, complexity, and urgency of many sustainability problems increase, there is a growing need for universities to contribute more effectively to problem solving. Drawing upon prior research on social-ecological systems, knowledge-action connections, and organizational innovation, we developed an integrated conceptual framework for strengthening the capacity of universities to help society understand and respond to a wide range of sustainability challenges. Based on experiences gained in creating the Senator George J. Mitchell Center for Sustainability Solutions (Mitchell Center), we tested this framework by evaluating the experiences of interdisciplinary research teams involved in place-based, solutions-oriented research projects at the scale of a single region (i.e., the state of Maine, USA). We employed a multiple-case-study approach examining the experiences of three interdisciplinary research teams working on tidal energy development, adaptation to climate change, and forest vulnerability to an invasive insect. Drawing upon documents, observations, interviews, and other data sources, three common patterns emerged across these cases that were associated with more effective problem-solving strategies. First, an emphasis on local places and short-term dynamics in social-ecological systems research provides more frequent opportunities for learning while doing. Second, iterative stakeholder engagement and inclusive forms of knowledge co-production can generate substantial returns on investment, especially when researchers are dedicated to a shared process of problem identification and they avoid framing solutions too narrowly. Although these practices are time consuming, they can be accelerated by leveraging existing stakeholder relationships. Third, efforts to mobilize interdisciplinary expertise and link knowledge with action are facilitated by an organizational culture that emphasizes mutual respect, adaptability, and solutions. Participation of faculty associated with interdisciplinary academic programs, solutions-oriented fields, and units with partnership-oriented missions hastens collaboration within teams and between teams and stakeholders. The Mitchell Center also created a risk-tolerant culture that encouraged organizational learning. Solutions-focused programs at other universities can potentially benefit from the lessons we learned.

Hart, DD; Bell, KP; Lindenfeld, LA; Jain, S; Johnson, TR; Ranco, D; McGill, B

Strengthening the role of universities in addressing sustainability challenges: the Mitchell Center for Sustainability Solutions as an institutional experiment

Ecology And Society

https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-07283-200204

A simulation analysis was carried out using the InfoCrop-rice model to quantify impacts and adaptation gains, as well as to identify vulnerable regions for irrigated and rain fed rice cultivation in future climates in India. Climates in A1b, A2, B1 and B2 emission scenarios as per a global climate model (MIROC3.2.HI) and a regional climate model (PRECIS) were considered for the study. On an aggregated scale, the mean of all emission scenarios indicate that climate change is likely to reduce irrigated rice yields by similar to 4 % in 2020 (2010-2039), similar to 7 % in 2050 (2040-2069), and by similar to 10 % in 2080 (2070-2099) climate scenarios. On the other hand, rainfed rice yields in India are likely to be reduced by similar to 6 % in the 2020 scenario, but in the 2050 and 2080 scenarios they are projected to decrease only marginally (< 2.5 %). However, spatial variations exist for the magnitude of the impact, with some regions likely to be affected more than others. Adaptation strategies comprising agronomical management can offset negative impacts in the near future-particularly in rainfed conditions-but in the longer run, developing suitable varieties coupled with improved and efficient crop husbandry will become essential. For irrigated rice crop, genotypic and agronomic improvements will become crucial; while for rainfed conditions, improved management and additional fertilizers will be needed. Basically climate change is likely to exhibit three types of impacts on rice crop: i) regions that are adversely affected by climate change can gain in net productivity with adaptation; ii) regions that are adversely affected will still remain vulnerable despite adaptation gains; and iii) rainfed regions (with currently low rainfall) that are likely to gain due to increase in rainfall can further benefit by adaptation. Regions falling in the vulnerable category even after suggested adaptation to climate change will require more intensive, specific and innovative adaptation options. The present analysis indicates the possibility of substantial improvement in yields with efficient utilization of inputs and adoption of improved varieties.

Soora, NK; Aggarwal, PK; Saxena, R; Rani, S; Jain, S; Chauhan, N

An assessment of regional vulnerability of rice to climate change in India

Climatic Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0698-3

Past research has stressed the role of age and generation in climate change discourse, worries, and willingness to act. Therefore, the present paper aimed to examine the role of chronological age (as an arbitrary factor, which represents ageism) in lay people's climate change-related attitudes, feelings, and behavioral intentions. Two experiments in different countries, Australia and Israel, were conducted for this purpose. The first study examined the impact of the age of the speaker, who provides information about the climate crisis and the second examined the impact of the age of the group being blamed for the situation. Outcome variables included perceived responsibility and motivation for the current climate situation in study 1 and perceived climate change-related attitudes, feelings, and behavioral intentions in study 2. In study 1 (n = 250, Australia), the age of the speaker, a climate activist, varied randomly to test the hypothesis that a younger activist would be more influential and increase motivation and responsibility to act compared to an older activist. In study 2 (n = 179, Israel), the age (young vs. old) of the group identified as being responsible for the climate crisis varied randomly, to test the hypothesis that people would be more willing to identify older people as being responsible for the current climate situation, and this would impact climate change-related attitudes, feelings, and behavioral intentions. Both studies resulted in null effects. Additionally, there was no interaction between the age of the respondent and the age of the source of the message or the age group being blamed by the message. The present study has failed to show that strategies that emphasize intergenerational conflict and ageism impact people's attitudes, feelings, and behavioral intentions towards the current climate situation. This possibly can serve as an instigator for strategies that emphasize intergenerational solidarity, rather than conflict, as a guiding principle in future campaigns that advocate climate change adaptation and mitigation measures.

Ayalon, L; Roy, S

The role of chronological age in climate change attitudes, feelings, and behavioral intentions: The case of null results

Plos One

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0286901

Tourism is one of the fastest growing economic sectors on an international scale. Based on this growth, it became necessary to consider climatic-meteorological conditions as determinants for boosting tourism in some geographical areas. The main objective of this paper is to characterize the perception of bioclimatic comfort of tourists who visited the city of Porto in the summer seasons of 2019 and 2020 (in the on-going pandemic). Primary data were obtained from a questionnaire on perceptions of bioclimatic comfort and microclimatic measurements applied to 207 tourists in the summer of 2019, 146 in the winter of 2019-2020 and 210 in the summer of 2020. It took place in one of the main places of passage for tourists visiting the city of Porto. Based on statistical analysis, responses were parameterized according to the environmental and sociodemographic characteristics of the tourists. In addition, summary indicators (Physiological Equivalent Temperature - PET, Thermal Sensation Vote - TSV, Thermal Preference Vote - TPV) were used to characterize the profile of visiting tourists. The influence of microclimate conditions on the thermal comfort of tourists was evident, showing, however, that they still felt comfortable regardless of the situation. The results demonstrated a good effort to reduce thermal discomfort through adapted behavior. Air temperature and relative humidity seem to be more directly related to mean thermal sensation votes in the summer of 2019 (r(2) = 0.86 and r(2) = 0.68, respectively). In the winters of 2019-2020 and summer of 2020, these indicators do not show such a strong correlation. Anyway, it is verified that there is a greater tolerance for higher and lower temperatures than those that are verified for the residents, when compared to previous studies. The consideration of average thresholds for thermal comfort in tourism is crucial. In future studies and planning proposals, it will be necessary to consider the optimal climatic conditions of local climate change adaptation and mitigation policies.

Lopes, HS; Remoaldo, PC; Ribeiro, V; Martín-Vide, J

Perceptions of human thermal comfort in an urban tourism destination - A case study of Porto (Portugal)

Building And Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2021.108246

The paper assesses the damage caused by 2010 flash flood and its underlying causes in the upper zone of Panjkora River within district Dir Upper, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Province in Pakistan. Floods in general and flash floods in particular are very common in the area, and the phenomenon has intensified in the wake of observed climatic changes in the region. Anticipating an increase in the multiplicity of causes and a rise in the human, livelihood, and property losses attributed to flash floods calls for a detailed study of affected communities in the region. Within the study area of District Dir Upper-within the band of 200 m on both sides of Panjkora River, three most affected communities, namely Barikot, Kalkot, and Sharingal, were picked on random basis to have detailed analysis of underlying causes and the quantification of damage assessment in the area. Questionnaire-based household survey and structured interviews were conducted to investigate physical and economic damages in the sample sites. Global positioning system (GPS) survey is also conducted to acquire absolute location of damages, and geographic information system is used to visualize land use, land cover, physical features, and GPS data. Monsoon winds interacted with the westerlies abnormally caused unprecedented high intensity rainfall in the valley. The steep topography of the area caused rainwater to accumulate rapidly in the Panjkora River channel, overpowering the withholding capacity of the river. The flash flood inflected heavy losses to life and properties of the local population. The infrastructure such as houses, roads, retaining walls, bridges, water supply schemes, and irrigation channels were destroyed severely in the whole area particularly in Kalkot. Three explored underlying causes of flash floods and the degree of damage due to 2010 flash floods in the region call for an enhanced realization for climatic change adaptability, flood risk management, and mitigation measures, better flood response through early warning systems, and improved rehabilitation and recovery efforts within flood prone areas such as district Dir Upper, KP, Pakistan.

Mahmood, S; Khan, AU; Mayo, SM

Exploring underlying causes and assessing damages of 2010 flash flood in the upper zone of Panjkora River

Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2386-x

The role of the private sector in climate finance is increasingly emphasized in international political debates. Knowledge of private engagement in mitigating climate change and in more advanced economies is growing, but the evidence base for private-sector engagement in climate change adaptation in developing countries remains weak. Starting from the premise that the private sector's role in adaptation is often inevitable and potentially significant, this article first analyses the potential of private-sector engagement in adaptation and adaptation financing in developing countries by conceptualizing the private sector's roles and motivation therein. For further inquiry, and for a discussion based on a developing-country context, interviews were conducted with key stakeholders for adaptation of Zambia's agricultural sector, including on ways in which the government can incentivize private-sector engagement in adaptation.How much private-sector adaptation and adaptation finance can be identified depends on the interpretation of the concept of adaptation. Under a broad interpretation, the domestic private sector in particular can contribute substantially to adaptation, both directly and indirectly, through its investments and activities. However, the international private sector's role in financing adaptation should be analysed under a strict interpretation of adaptation and appears limited.Policy relevanceInternational political debates increasingly stress the importance of private climate finance, yet are constrained by vagueness around the private sector's role in adaptation finance. This article conceptualizes and scrutinizes private-sector engagement in adaptation and adaptation finance in developing countries. It concludes that the domestic private sector in particular can contribute substantially to adaptation in direct and indirect ways, and that domestic policies incentivize such contributions. However, international private financing of adaptation is more limited and its analysis requires a stricter interpretation of adaptation. Private-sector engagement in adaptation and adaptation finance can supplement, but not substitute for, public investments in adaptation. These limitations are particularly important when discussing private adaptation finance as part of the developed countries' pledge to mobilize US$100 billion of climate finance per annum from 2020 onwards.

Pauw, WP

Not a panacea: private-sector engagement in adaptation and adaptation finance in developing countries

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2014.953906

Climate change adaptation and mitigation decisions made by governments are usually taken in different policy domains. At the individual level however, adaptation and mitigation activities are undertaken together as part of the management of risk and resources. We propose that a useful starting point to develop a national climate policy is to understand what societal response might mean in practice. First we frame the set of responses at the national policy level as a trade off between investment in the development and diffusion of new technology, and investment in encouraging and enabling society to change its behaviour and or adopt the new technology. We argue that these are the pertinent trade-offs, rather than those usually posited between climate change mitigation and adaptation. The preference for a policy response that focuses more on technological innovation rather than one that focuses on changing social behaviour will be influenced by the capacity of different societies to change their greenhouse gas emissions; by perceived vulnerability to climate impacts; and by capacity to modify social behaviour and physical environment. Starting with this complete vision of response options should enable policy makers to re-evaluate the risk environment and the set of response options available to them. From here, policy makers should consider who is responsible for making climate response decisions and when actions should be taken. Institutional arrangements dictate social and political acceptability of different policies, they structure worldviews, and they determine the provision of resources for investment in technological innovation and social change. The importance of focussing on the timing of the response is emphasised to maximise the potential for adjustments through social learning and institutional change at different policy scales. We argue that the ability to respond to climate change is both enabled and constrained by social and technological conditions. The ability of society to respond to climate change and the need for technological change for both decarbonisation and for dealing with surprise in general, are central to concepts of sustainable development. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tompkins, EL; Adger, WN

Defining response capacity to enhance climate change policy

Environmental Science & Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2005.06.012

The science of climate change and its impacts on health makes it clear that human health and wellbeing will be increasingly negatively impacted as a result of climate change. The health and wellbeing sector must respond to these growing pressures in order to continue to provide safe, quality care. Adaptation and mitigation policies need to be developed at different scales, including at a regional government level. Numerous challenges exist; for example, the necessity for collaboration between multiple agencies across scales, the tailoring of policies to the health issues specific to regions, and constraints on existing regional and local resources and adaptive capacities, to name a few. This paper presents a multi-disciplinary collaborative approach used to develop a regional scale climate adaptation plan with the health sector. Starting from a scientific understanding of climate change impact on the health sector in Queensland, Australia, the approach used an innovative engagement strategy to a) better understand awareness of relevant stakeholders about current and future climate change impact on the health of the population and on service provision, b) identify on-ground barriers to effective adaptation faced by the sector stakeholders, c) identify opportunities and benefits which would arise from adaptation, and d) identify what conditions or support stakeholders required to overcome those barriers, take advantage of opportunities, and achieve benefits from adaptation. Analysis of these findings guided the development of specific policy directions for the sector. We found direct engagement between various key stakeholders such as health service providers (e.g. hospitals), critical infrastructure providers, academics, local government authorities, and sub-sectors such as aged care and early childhood care facilities, was a critical element of translating scientific evidence of climate change impacts on human health into a regional adaptation policy for the health and wellbeing sector. The resulting policy, grounded in the reality and experience of health and wellbeing sector stakeholders, reflects their insights and concerns, and served to develop a level of sectoral 'ownership' (not 'top-down' imposition) which will be important for its successful ongoing development and implementation.

Tonmoy, FN; Cooke, SM; Armstrong, F; Rissik, D

From science to policy: Development of a climate change adaptation plan for the health and wellbeing sector in Queensland, Australia

Environmental Science & Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.03.005

Small island nations are highly dependent on food from aquatic environments, or blue food, and vulnerable to climate change and global food market price volatility. By 2050, rising populations will demand more food through various protein sources, including from the sea. This study identifies which small island nations can improve food self-sufficiency from the sea by implementing tailored climate-adaptive fisheries governance strategies that adapt to shifting marine resources. We combined projections of seafood demand and local catch under different future scenarios of global carbon emissions and local adaptive fisheries management to estimate potential seafood surpluses or deficits from by 2050 for 31 small island nations worldwide. We find that adapting fisheries management every 10 years could mitigate even worst-case projections of climate change impacts on locally available seafood, building a seafood surplus by 2050 in the Seychelles, Maldives, Cabo Verde, Bahamas, Antigua and Barbuda, Kiribati, PNG, Fiji, FSM, Tuvalu, and Marshall Islands. Strategic financial and capacity investments by the international community could help realize the full potential of food security from the sea for those nations. However, we project deficits in locally caught seafood by 2050 in Comoros, Sao Tome and Principe, Mauritius, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Cuba, Dominica, Jamaica, Grenada, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago, Haiti, Palau, Samoa, Nauru, and the Solomon Islands, regardless of adapting fisheries management. For those nations, we recommend international collaboration that strengthens food security from sources other than the sea coupled with investments in locally sustainable aquaculture. Overall, we find that climate-adaptive fisheries management can benefit a range of the studied small island nations, by supporting both food security goals as well as economic goals of productive fisheries for international trade

Teneva, L; Free, CM; Hume, A; Agostini, VN; Klein, CJ; Watson, RA; Gaines, SD

Small island nations can achieve food security benefits through climate-adaptive blue food governance by 2050

Marine Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2023.105577

Future climate change is expected to have greater impacts on societies whose livelihoods rely on subsistence agricultural systems. Adaptation is essential for mitigating adverse effects of climate change, to sustain rural livelihoods and ensure future food security. We present an agent-based model, called OMOLAND-CA, which explores the impact of climate change on the adaptive capacity of rural communities in the South Omo Zone of Ethiopia. The purpose of the model is to answer research questions on the resilience and adaptive capacity of rural households with respect to variations in climate, socioeconomic factors, and land-use at the local level. Our model explicitly represents the socio-cognitive behavior of rural households toward climate change and resource flows that prompt agents to diversify their production strategy under different climatic conditions. Results from the model show that successive episodes of extreme events (e.g., droughts) affect the adaptive capacity of households, causing them to migrate from the region. Nonetheless, rural communities in the South Omo Zone, and in the model, manage to endure in spite of such harsh climatic change conditions.

Hailegiorgis, A; Crooks, A; Cioffi-Revilla, C

An Agent-Based Model of Rural Households' Adaptation to Climate Change

Jasss-The Journal Of Artificial Societies And Social Simulation

https://doi.org/10.18564/jasss.3812

'Shared responsibility' for managing risk is central to Australian adaptation and disaster-resilience policies, yet there is no consensus on what this term means or how it is discharged by various actors at each phase of the risk-management process. This has implications for both equity and effectiveness, because shared responsibility assumes that individuals have capacity and that the decisions they make will not conflict with other public values. This article explores how law assigns responsibility for climate adaptation by examining its approach to a specific climate impact in Australia: the increasing frequency and severity of bushfire. Australia faces heightened bushfire risk from the interplay of climate change effects and demographic shifts. While planning laws attempt to limit exposure of new communities to fire risks, adapting existing communities involves hazard mitigation across the landscape, through fuel reduction - accomplished by controlled burning or clearing of brush and timber - and the construction of fuel breaks. Most Australian jurisdictions impose some form of obligation on land managers or owners to mitigate fire risk. However, the effectiveness of shifting responsibility onto individual landholders, measured in terms of bushfire risk mitigation, is not established. The shifting of responsibility also has implications for equity because shared responsibility for fire management assumes that individuals know what must be done and have the capacity to do it themselves or pay others to. The law also privileges bushfire protection above other public values, including the protection of biodiversity and cultural values. To account for the complexity of adaptation decision-making, bushfire mitigation laws should avoid creating inequities and should include mechanisms for resolving trade-offs between competing values.

McDonald, J; McCormack, PC

Responsibility and Risk-Sharing in Climate Adaptation: a Case Study of Bushfire Risk in Australia

Climate Law

https://doi.org/10.1163/18786561-20210003

Under conditions of continuous global warming, research into the future change trends of regional dry-wet climates is key for coping with and adapting to climate change, and is also an important topic in the field of climate change prediction. In this study, daily precipitation and mean temperature datasets under four representative concentrative pathway (RCP) scenarios in the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory Earth system model with modular ocean model (GFDL-ESM2M) version 4 were used to calculate the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) at different time scales. Using a multi-analytical approach including the Mann-Kendall trend test and run theory, the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of drought in the TP from 2016 to 2099 were studied. The results show that the overall future climate of the TP will develop towards warm and humid, and that the monthly-scale wet-dry changes will develop non-uniformly. As the concentration of carbon dioxide emissions increases in the future, the proportion of extremely significant aridification and humidification areas in the TP will significantly increase, and the possibility of extreme disasters will also increase. Moreover, influenced by the increase of annual TP precipitation, the annual scale of future drought in the region will tend to decrease slightly, and the spatial distributions of the frequency and intensity of droughts at all levels will develop uniformly. Under all four RCP scenarios, the drought duration of the TP was mainly less than 3 months, and the drought cycle in the southern region was longer than that in the northern region. The results of this study provide a new basis for the development of adaptive measures for the TP to cope with climate change.

Liu, Y; Jia, ZF; Ma, XY; Wang, YQ; Guan, RH; Guan, ZL; Gu, YH; Zhao, W

Analysis of Drought Characteristics Projections for the Tibetan Plateau Based on the GFDL-ESM2M Climate Model

Remote Sensing

https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14205084

There is growing interest in the application of nature-based solutions to adapt to climate change and promote resilience, yet barriers exist to their implementation. These include a perceived lack of evidence of their functioning in comparison to conventional solutions and an inability for existing design, policy, and assessment processes to capture the multiple benefits of these solutions. Positing this as a challenge of operationalizing and measuring resilience, we argue that the concept of resilience needs to be given concrete meaning in applied management contexts. Starting with shoreline vulnerability as a policy problem and natural and nature-based shoreline features as a promising solution, we present a case study of a co-creative process to produce an interdisciplinary and locally relevant approach to understanding and capturing the benefits of natural and nature-based solutions. We develop the notion of resilience service to enable a concreteness to resilience that simultaneously takes into account ecological, technical, and social dimensions. Through the co-creative process, our researcher-practitioner network developed a monitoring framework for shoreline features in New York State to facilitate the comparison of natural and nature-based features with conventional shoreline approaches. We describe the process and assess the advantages and drawbacks of integrating scientific input and local knowledge. We present the monitoring framework, showing how the co-creative character of the process is consequential in the formulation of the final framework through the selection of parameters, indicators, and protocols. We argue that interdisciplinarity, co-creation, pragmatism, multi-scalar applicability, and policy relevance are critical principles to understand the functioning and facilitate the implementation of naturebased solutions, while recognizing that this work necessitates compromise and as such will lead to continued deliberation. We posit this is a strength of the process for it acknowledges the creation of resilience as a social process in which values are central and subject to change.

Wijsman, K; Auyeung, DSN; Brashear, P; Branco, BF; Graziano, K; Groffman, PM; Cheng, HE; Corbett, D

Operationalizing resilience: co-creating a framework to monitor hard, natural, and nature-based shoreline features in New York State

Ecology And Society

https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-12182-260310

Conservation agriculture has been promoted to sustainably intensify food production in smallholder farming systems in southern Africa. However, farmers have rarely fully implemented all its components, resulting in different combinations of no-tillage, crop rotation, and permanent soil cover being practiced, thus resulting in variable yield responses depending on climatic and soil conditions. Therefore, it is crucial to assess the effect of conservation agriculture components on yield stability. We hypothesized that the use of all three conservation agriculture components would perform the best, resulting in more stable production in all environments. We evaluated at, eight trial locations across southern Africa, how partial and full implementation of these components affected crop yield and yield stability compared with conventional tillage alone or combined with mulching and/or crop rotation. Grain yield and shoot biomass of maize and cowpea were recorded along with precipitation for 2 to 5 years. Across different environments, the addition of crop rotation and mulch to no-tillage increased maize grain by 6%, and the same practices added to conventional tillage led to 13% yield increase. Conversely, adding only mulch or crop rotation to no-tillage or conventional tillage led to lower or equal maize yield. Stability analyses based on Shukla's index showed for the first time that the most stable systems are those in which mulch is added without crop rotation. Moreover, the highest yielding systems were the least stable. Finally, additive main effects and multiplicative interaction analysis allowed clarifying that mulch added to no-tillage gives stable yields on sandy soil with high rainfall. Similarly, mulch added to conventional tillage gives stable yield on sandy soil, but under low rainfall. This is the first study that highlighted the crucial role of mulch to enhance the stability and resilience of cropping systems in southern Africa, supporting their adaptability to climate change.

Mhlanga, B; Ercoli, L; Pellegrino, E; Onofri, A; Thierfelder, C

The crucial role of mulch to enhance the stability and resilience of cropping systems in southern Africa

Agronomy For Sustainable Development

https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-021-00687-y

There is a proactive interest in recovering water, nutrients and energy from waste streams with the increase in municipal wastewater volumes and innovations in resource recovery. Based on the synthesis of wastewater data, this study provides insights into the global and regional potential of wastewater as water, nutrient and energy sources while acknowledging the limitations of current resource recovery opportunities and promoting efforts to fast-track high-efficiency returns. The study estimates suggest that, currently, 380 billion m(3) (m(3) = 1,000 L) of wastewater are produced annually across the world which is a volume five-fold the volume of water passing through Niagara Falls annually. Wastewater production globally is expected to increase by 24% by 2030 and 51% by 2050 over the current level. Among major nutrients, 16.6 Tg (Tg = million metric ton) of nitrogen are embedded in wastewater produced worldwide annually; phosphorus stands at 3.0 Tg and potassium at 6.3 Tg. The full nutrient recovery from wastewater would offset 13.4% of the global demand for these nutrients in agriculture. Beyond nutrient recovery and economic gains, there are critical environmental benefits, such as minimizing eutrophication. At the energy front, the energy embedded in wastewater would be enough to provide electricity to 158 million households. These estimates and projections are based on the maximum theoretical amounts of water, nutrients and energy that exist in the reported municipal wastewater produced worldwide annually. Supporting resource recovery from wastewater will need a step-wise approach to address a range of constraints to deliver a high rate of return in direct support of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 6, 7 and 12, but also other Goals, including adaptation to climate change and efforts in advancing net-zero energy processes towards a green economy.

Qadir, M; Drechsel, P; Cisneros, BJ; Kim, Y; Pramanik, A; Mehta, P; Olaniyan, O

Global and regional potential of wastewater as a water, nutrient and energy source

Natural Resources Forum

https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-8947.12187

Climate change has the potential to affect the productivity of agricultural enterprises with the ability to adapt varying among farm systems. We modelled the impacts and tested the effects of potential adaptations to climate change for two New Zealand sheep and beef grazing enterprises located in regions that have contrasting climate change projections. For both enterprises we examined six management systems varying in farming intensity and the tactics used to respond to changes in feed supply and demand. The effects of the impacts and adaptations were determined by examining the economic viability of the systems. We modelled pasture growth over two 20-year periods centred on 1990 and 2040 using downscaled climate projections and a pasture simulation model; the resultant pasture growth curves were used in a farm system model to both determine impacts and test the benefits of adaptation. For both regions there were only slight increases in total annual pasture growth but marked changes in seasonality that required changes in the management system. For one region there were clear benefits of climate change which were accentuated by adaptation while in the other climate change had no positive impacts and adaptation was not effective. Two caveats are noteworthy: first, although adaptations used for the 2040 management systems were not outside the biologically feasible options achievable today, they did involve changes in reproductive efficiency and animal growth rates that are only currently achieved on the highest performing farms. Secondly, some of the adaptations assumed and depended on stock and feed movement between farms and regions, however we were not able to assess the possibility of synchronous, widespread droughts in multiple regions; should these increase then our adaptations would be challenging and could also put pressure on current agricultural infrastructure. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lieffering, M; Newton, PCD; Vibart, R; Li, FY

Exploring climate change impacts and adaptations of extensive pastoral agriculture systems by combining biophysical simulation and farm system models

Agricultural Systems

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2016.01.005

Clim ate is the main driver of Aleppo pine radial growth variability irrespective of site pro ductivity, with the climate effects on tree growth more limiting from 1970 onwards. Forest management adaptation to climate change requires identifying the previously most vulnerable stands and the possible climate impacts on forests. This study evaluates whether site index, as an indicator of forest productivity, is related to climate-growth responses and assesses the way in which local site factors modulate climate-tree growth relationships. Tree-ring width series and soil characteristics were obtained from six Pinus halepensis stands with different site indices and similar climate. Dendrochronological methods were used to compare tree climate-growth responses among sites and to study temporal trends in inter-annual growth variability and climate-growth relationships (before and after 1970). The influence of topographic and soil features on tree growth was assessed by means of partial least squares. Stands with low site indices tended to present higher mean sensitivities and greater percentages of missing rings, this relation being modulated mainly by clay percentage and nutrient status in soil. Climate is the major Aleppo pine radial growth driver in the study area with similar growth-climate relationship among sites. Radial growth was mainly influenced by spring temperature and precipitation and previous autumn-winter precipitation. This relationship was stronger after 1970 than before this year, showing also a 2-month advancement of the most influential climate variables after 1970, from May to March. These results and the increasing temporal trend found in mean sensitivity after 1970 highlight the vulnerability of these stands to climate change. Site index was not found to be directly related to stand vulnerability, although local site factors modulate in part the tree-growth response.

del Río, M; Rodríguez-Alonso, J; Bravo-Oviedo, A; Ruíz-Peinado, R; Cañellas, I; Gutiérrez, E

Aleppo pine vulnerability to climate stress is independent of site productivity of forest stands in southeastern Spain

Trees-Structure And Function

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00468-014-1031-0

Much concern has been raised regarding how and to what extent climate change and intensive human activities have altered water use efficiency (WUE, amount of carbon uptake per unit of water use) in monsoon Asia. By using a process-based ecosystem model [dynamic land ecosystem model (DLEM)], we examined effects of climate change, land use/cover change, and land management practices (i.e. irrigation and nitrogen fertilization) on WUE in terrestrial ecosystems of monsoon Asia during 1948-2000. Our simulations indicated that due to climate variability/change, WUE in the entire area decreased by 3.6% during the study period, with the largest decrease of 6.8% in the 1990s. Grassland was the most sensitive biome to a drying climate, with a decrease of 16.2% in WUE in the 1990s. Land conversion from natural vegetation to croplands, accounting for 79% of the total converted land areas, led to a decrease in WUE, with the largest decrease of 42% while forest was converted to cropland. In contrast, WUE increased by more than 50% while cropland was converted to natural vegetation. Simulated results also showed that intensive land management practices could alleviate the decrease in WUE induced by climate change and land conversion. Changes in WUE showed substantial spatial variation, varying from the largest decrease of over 50% in northwestern China and some areas of Mongolia to the largest increase of over 30% in western, southern China, and large areas of India. To adapt to climate change and sustain terrestrial ecosystem production, more attention ought to be paid to enhance water use efficiency through land use and management practices, especially in the drying areas. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Tian, HQ; Lu, CQ; Chen, GS; Xu, XF; Liu, ML; Ren, W; Tao, B; Sun, G; Pan, SF; Liu, JY

Climate and land use controls over terrestrial water use efficiency in monsoon Asia

Ecohydrology

https://doi.org/10.1002/eco.216

Most prior climate change assessments for U. S. agriculture have focused on major world food crops such as wheat and maize. While useful from a national and global perspective, these results are not particularly relevant to the Northeastern U. S. agriculture economy, which is dominated by dairy milk production, and high-value horticultural crops such as apples (Malus domestica), grapes (Vitis vinifera), sweet corn (Zea mays var. rugosa), cabbage (Brassica oleracea var. capitata), and maple syrup (sugar maple, Acer saccharum). We used statistically downscaled climate projections generated by the HadCM3 atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, run with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change future emissions scenarios A1fi (higher) and B1 (lower), to evaluate several climate thresholds of direct relevance to agriculture in the region. A longer (frost-free) growing season could create new opportunities for farmers with enough capital to take risks on new crops (assuming a market for new crops can be developed). However, our results indicate that many crops will have yield losses associated with increased frequency of high temperature stress, inadequate winter chill period for optimum fruiting in spring, increased pressure from marginally over-wintering and/or invasive weeds, insects, or disease, or other factors. Weeds are likely to benefit more than cash crops from increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Projections of thermal heat index values for dairy cows indicate a substantial potential negative impact on milk production. At the higher compared to lower emissions scenario, negative climate change effects will occur sooner, and impact a larger geographic area within the region. Farmer adaptations to climate change will not be cost- or risk-free, and the impact on individual farm families and rural communities will depend on commodity produced, available capital, and timely, accurate climate projections.

Wolfe, DW; Ziska, L; Petzoldt, C; Seaman, A; Chase, L; Hayhoe, K

Projected change in climate thresholds in the Northeastern US: implications for crops, pests, livestock, and farmers

Mitigation And Adaptation Strategies For Global Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-007-9125-2

Discerning anthropogenic stressors on groundwater is critical for climate change adaptation to reduce risks and increase resiliency. Long-term groundwater level trends are forecasted and examined at three sites in North Florida using a large ensemble of Global Climate Model (GCM) projections under low and medium emission scenarios. The forecasts indicate groundwater levels are likely to decline from 2020 to 2099. However, the declines are expected to accelerate after 2040s, reaching critical levels by the end of this century. Pumping impact constitutes 10% to 45% of future declines but is amplified by enhanced drought. Examination of distinct influence of rainfall, evapotranspiration (ET), and groundwater pumping on future trends shows highly divergent groundwater response to projected hydroclimatic changes. The future long-term rainfall trend may lead to rising groundwater levels, which may be overshadowed by heightened ET loss driven by climate change and increased groundwater pumping, causing steep declines. This study also reveals poor performance of predictions driven by GCM projections in replicating the timing of high and low levels at the sites influenced by Florida's peninsular climate due to the limitation of downscaling and bias-correction to capture oscillations in climate cycles driving hydrologic memory. However, groundwater levels are predicted well by a few GCMs at one site influenced primarily by continental climate. Additionally, a multidecadal harmonic analysis exposes presence of centennial periodicity in groundwater levels, which opens a new perspective in the understanding of climate change impacts on groundwater resources. Further investigation is needed to better understand the effect of centennial cycles on future groundwater levels and how these cycles can be incorporated into the downscaling methods. Hence, GCM-based forecasts are recommended to be cautiously utilized for groundwater resource planning when they significantly depart from historical long-term cyclic patterns.

Gordu, F; Nachabe, MH

Inferences of Groundwater Response to Projected Hydroclimatic Changes in North Florida

Journal Of Hydrologic Engineering

https://doi.org/10.1061/JHYEFF.HEENG-5827

Governments and policymakers are increasingly concerned about climate change. To cope with this inevitable issue, the SDGs-13 target underscores the importance of developing adaptation measures that reduce its adverse effects and ultimately safeguard both society and the environment. This issue is critical in developing countries, which are unable to counter climate-related risks because they lack adaptive capacity, suitable infrastructure, technology and, most importantly, human and physical capital. By contrast, resource-endowed developed countries have succeeded in integrating adaptative and protective policies into their developmental agenda using human power, technology, and especially investment. Keeping these facts in mind, this study is framed to examine the nexus between climate change, adaptation measures, and economic development across different income groups (lower-middle, upper-middle, and high income), using the Driscoll-Kraay (D/K) standard errors method for panel data from the period of 1995 to 2020. This study incorporates two indices (i.e., adaptive capacity and adaptation readiness) in the adaptation framework. The results demonstrate that developed countries such as Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, New Zealand, Sweden, Switzerland, the USA, and the UK are highly adaptive countries due to their readiness for adaptation. Developing countries with very low levels of readiness have a lower adaptive capacity and are, therefore, more vulnerable to climate change. Additionally, a non-causality test demonstrates that a one-way causality runs from readiness, ecological footprint, GDP, renewable energy, FDI, and natural resource investment to the adaptive capacity in all panels. The developed countries are less vulnerable to climate change because of their well-established economies, rich capital resources, good governance, and timely and effective readiness strategies. Adaptation readiness is a vital tool in capacity building for societal adaptation to minimize the effects of disasters on the living standard of communities.

Saeed, S; Makhdum, MSA; Anwar, S; Yaseen, MR

Climate Change Vulnerability, Adaptation, and Feedback Hypothesis: A Comparison of Lower-Middle, Upper-Middle, and High-Income Countries

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su15054145

Densely populated floodplains downstream of Asia's mountain ranges depend heavily on mountain water resources, in particular for irrigation. An intensive and complex multi-cropping irrigated agricultural system has developed here to optimize the use of these mountain water resources in conjunction with monsoonal rainfall. Snow and glacier melt thereby modulate the seasonal pattern of river flows and, together with groundwater, provide water when rainfall is scarce. Climate change is expected to weaken this modulating effect, with potentially strong effects on food production in one of the world's breadbaskets. Here we quantify the space-, time-and crop-specific dependence of agriculture in the Indo-Gangetic Plains on mountain water resources, using a coupled state-of-the-art, high-resolution, cryosphere-hydrology-crop model. We show that dependence varies strongly in space and time and is highest in the Indus basin, where in the pre-monsoon season up to 60% of the total irrigation withdrawals originate from mountain snow and glacier melt, and that it contributes an additional 11% to total crop production. Although dependence in the floodplains of the Ganges is comparatively lower, meltwater is still essential during the dry season, in particular for crops such as sugar cane. The dependency on meltwater in the Brahmaputra is negligible. In total, 129 million farmers in the Indus and Ganges substantially depend on snow and glacier melt for their livelihoods. Snow and glacier melt provides enough water to grow food crops to sustain a balanced diet for 38 million people. These findings provide important information for agricultural and climate change adaptation policies in a climate change hot spot where shifts in water availability and demand are projected as a result of climate change and socio-economic growth.

Biemans, H; Siderius, C; Lutz, AF; Nepal, S; Ahmad, B; Hassan, T; von Bloh, W; Wijngaard, RR; Wester, P; Shrestha, AB; Immerzeel, WW

Importance of snow and glacier meltwater for agriculture on the Indo-Gangetic Plain

Nature Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0305-3

Background: This review assessed Ethiopia's existing situation on issues related to the environment, climate change and health, and identifies gaps and needs that can be addressed through research, training, and capacity building. Methods: The research was conducted through a comprehensive review of available secondary data and interviewing key informants in various national organizations involved in climate change adaptation and mitigation activities. Results: Climate change-related health problems, such as mortality and morbidity due to floods and heat waves, vector-borne diseases, water-borne diseases, meningitis, and air pollution-related respiratory diseases are increasing in Ethiopia. Sensitive systems such as agriculture, health, and water have been affected, and the effects of climate change will continue to magnify without the right adaptation and mitigation measures. Currently, research on climate change and health is not adequately developed in Ethiopia. Research and other activities appear to be fragmented and uncoordinated. As a result, very few spatially detailed and methodologically consistent studies have been made to assess the impact of climate in the country. There has often been a lack of sufficient collaboration among organizations on the planning and execution of climate change and health activities, and the lack of trained professionals who can perform climate change and health-related research activities at various levels. Conclusion: Firstly, there is a lack of organized structure in the various organizations. Secondly, there is inadequate level of inter-sectoral collaboration and poor coordination and communication among different stakeholders. Thirdly, there are no reliable policy guidelines and programs among organizations, agencies and offices that target climate change and health. Fourth, the existing policies fail to consider the gender and community-related dimensions of climate change. Fifth, the monitoring and evaluation efforts exerted on climate change and health activities are not strong enough to address the climate change and health issues in the country.

Simane, B; Beyene, H; Deressa, W; Kumie, A; Berhane, K; Samet, J

Review of Climate Change and Health in Ethiopia: Status and Gap Analysis

Ethiopian Journal Of Health Development

None

An analysis of observed trends in African annual-average near-surface temperatures over the last five decades reveals drastic increases, particularly over parts of the subtropics and central tropical Africa. Over these regions, temperatures have been rising at more than twice the global rate of temperature increase. An ensemble of high-resolution downscalings, obtained using a single regional climate model forced with the sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice fields of an ensemble of global circulation model (GCM) simulations, is shown to realistically represent the relatively strong temperature increases observed in subtropical southern and northern Africa. The amplitudes of warming are generally underestimated, however. Further warming is projected to occur during the 21st century, with plausible increases of 4-6 degrees Cover the subtropics and 3-5 degrees Cover the tropics by the end of the century relative to present-day climate under the A2 (a low mitigation) scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. High impact climate events such as heat-wave days and high fire-danger days are consistently projected to increase drastically in their frequency of occurrence. General decreases in soil-moisture availability are projected, even for regions where increases in rainfall are plausible, due to enhanced levels of evaporation. The regional dowscalings presented here, and recent GCM projections obtained for Africa, indicate that African annual-averaged temperatures may plausibly rise at about 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase in the subtropics, and at a somewhat lower rate in the tropics. These projected increases although drastic, may be conservative given the model underestimations of observed temperature trends. The relatively strong rate of warming over Africa, in combination with the associated increases in extreme temperature events, may be key factors to consider when interpreting the suitability of global mitigation targets in terms of African climate change and climate change adaptation in Africa.

Engelbrecht, F; Adegoke, J; Bopape, MJ; Naidoo, M; Garland, R; Thatcher, M; McGregor, J; Katzfey, J; Werner, M; Ichoku, C; Gatebe, C

Projections of rapidly rising surface temperatures over Africa under low mitigation

Environmental Research Letters

https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/085004

Projections of surface hydrology and local ecosystem responses to expected climate change in the 21st century can inform regional planners and land use managers in the broader context of climate change adaptation at regional scales. We use bias-corrected and downscaled projections for 3 IPCC scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2) to assess projected climate impacts on ecosystem function and services for different regions of the conterminous USA utilizing the Terrestrial Ecosystems Model version Hydro. Significance of model trends is analyzed for each of the 6 US National Climate Assessment megaregions for several climatological, hydrological, and ecological variables based on projections and consistency among the multimodel ensemble from phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Our regional analysis reveals that there are some robust and significant trends that can be useful to decision-makers, and that these trends are specific to each region, as each region responds to climate forcing differently in ways that reflect emergent behavior from the interaction of climate, ecosystem, and surface processes. Generally, runoff is simulated to increase in winter and decrease in summer throughout the northern USA, snowpack is reduced everywhere, and net primary productivity and maize yield increase except where limited by moisture. Model reconstructions of magnitudes and directions of some historical regional trends are incorrect, so predicted reversals may be spurious. Some model variables such as precipitation show no significant projected trends, yet in concert, they control the responses of other variables such as soil moisture, in which the trends are projected to be significant. As such, variables whose trends are less observable may be revealed by other variables controlled by them, and can thus be used as proxies to enhance predictive capacity.

Felzer, B; Sahagian, D

Climate impacts on regional ecosystem services in the United States from CMIP3-based multimodel comparisons

Climate Research

https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01249

To ensure continued food security and economic development in Africa, it is very important to address and adapt to climate change. Excessive dependence on rainfed agricultural production makes Africa more vulnerable to climate change effects. Weather information and services are essential for farmers to more effectively survive the increasing occurrence of extreme weather events due to climate change. Weather information is important for resource management in agricultural production and helps farmers plan their farming activities in advance. Machine Learning is one of the technologies used in agriculture for weather forecasting and crop disease detection among others. The objective of this study is to develop Machine Learning-based models adapted to the context of daily weather forecasting for Rainfall, Relative Humidity, and Maximum and Minimum Temperature in Senegal. In this study, we made a comparison of ten Machine Learning Regressors with our Ensemble Model. These models were evaluated based on Mean Absolute Error, Mean Squared Error, Root Mean Squared Error and Coefficient of Determination. The results show that the Ensemble Model performs better than the ten base models. The Ensemble Model results for each parameter are as follows; Relative Humidity: Mean Absolute Error was 4.0126, Mean Squared Error was 29.9885, Root Mean Squared Error was 5.4428 and Coefficient of Determination was 0.9335. For Minimum Temperature: Mean Absolute Error was 0.7908, Mean Squared Error was 1.1329, Root Mean Squared Error was 1.0515 and Coefficient of Determination was 0.9018. For Maximum Temperature: Mean Absolute Error was 1.2515, Mean Squared Error was 2.8038, Root Mean Squared Error was 1.6591 and Coefficient of Determination was 0.8205. For Rainfall: Mean Absolute Error was 0.2142, Mean Squared Error was 0.1681, Root Mean Squared Error was 0.4100 and Coefficient of Determination was 0.7733. From the present study, it has been observed that the Ensemble Model is a feasible model to be used for Rainfall, Relative Humidity, and Maximum and Minimum Temperature forecasting.

Nyasulu, C; Diattara, A; Traore, A; Deme, A; Ba, C

Towards Resilient Agriculture to Hostile Climate Change in the Sahel Region: A Case Study of Machine Learning-Based Weather Prediction in Senegal

Agriculture-Basel

https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12091473

Severe climatic anomalies in summer 1816, partly due to the eruption of Tambora in April 1815, contributed to delayed growth and poor harvests of important crops in Central Europe. Coinciding with adverse socio-economic conditions, this event triggered the last subsistence crisis in the western World. Here, we model reductions in potential crop yields for 1816 and 1817 and address the question, what impact a similar climatic anomaly would have today. We reconstructed daily weather for Switzerland for 1816/17 on a 2 km grid using historical observations and an analogue resampling method. These data were used to simulate potential crop yields for potato, grain maize, and winter barley using the CropSyst model calibrated for current crop cultivars. We also simulated yields for the same weather anomalies, but referenced to a present-day baseline temperature. Results show that reduced temperature delayed growth and harvest considerably, and in combination with reduced solar irradiance led to a substantial reduction (20%-50%) in the potential yield of potato in 1816. Effects on winter barley were smaller. Significant reductions were also modelled for 1817 and were mainly due to a cold late spring. Relative reductions for the present-day scenario for the two crops were almost indistinguishable from the historical ones. An even stronger response was found for maize, which was not yet common in 1816/17. Waterlogging, which we assessed using a stress-day approach, likely added to the simulated reductions. The documented, strong east-west gradient in malnutrition across Switzerland in 1817/18 could not be explained by biophysical yield limitations (though excess-water limitation might have contributed), but rather by economic, political and social factors. This highlights the importance of these factors for a societies' ability to cope with extreme climate events. While the adaptive capacity of today's society in Switzerland is much greater than in the early 19th century, our results emphasize the need for interdisciplinary approaches to climate change adaptation considering not only biophysical, but also social, economic and political aspects.

Flückiger, S; Brönnimann, S; Holzkämper, A; Führer, J; Krämer, D; Pfister, C; Rohr, C

Simulating crop yield losses in Switzerland for historical and present Tambora climate scenarios

Environmental Research Letters

https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7246

Climate change poses major challenges to agricultural systems in drought prone regions of the world especially in the areas with high poverty, lack of irrigation facilities and low productivity. Towards this it is essential to understand the climate change perceptions, adaptation practices and barriers to effective adaptation at household and community level. This paper using household surveys and focus group discussions in one of the drought prone areas of Odisha in India, explores various aspects of perception on climate change and barriers to adaptation. It also analyses the accuracy of perceptions based on rainfall data from nearest meteorological stations. The study reinforces the argument by earlier studies that the perception by people simply cannot be wrong because they may have a just a low correlation with underlying meteorological data. Results suggest that farmers increasingly perceive the changes in the rainfall and temperature patterns. However, when compared with the trend in actual rainfall data, perceptions on rainfall are found to more closely align with the results from the nearest station as compared to the station farther from it. Analysis revealed that seasonal rainfall variability has a profound influence on the farmers' perceptions on climate change and drought in the study region. Farmers' are still dependent on the traditional forecasting system because of the lack of access to modern climate forecasting and tailored information for agricultural practice. Although farmers in the study region are already adapting to the changing climate, the study finds that while lack of access to water and irrigation, information on climate change adaptation and early warning systems are major barriers to adaptation at the household level lack of government intervention, lack of knowledge on drought resistant crops and varieties and lack of renovation of water bodies and irrigation were mentioned as the major barriers at the community level. Findings from the paper argue for better adaptation planning at the local level incorporating local level perceptions and barriers to adaptation. In such areas local level planning can be crucial in enhancing the adaptive capacity of the farmers.

Panda, A

Exploring climate change perceptions, rainfall trends and perceived barriers to adaptation in a drought affected region in India

Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2456-0

Optimizing irrigation and nitrogen (N) fertilizer applications is essential to ensure crop yields and lower environmental risks under climate change. The DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model was employed to investigate the impacts of irrigation regime (RF, rainfed; MI, minimum irrigation; CI, critical irrigation; FI, full irrigation) and N fertilizer rate(N60, N90, N120, N150, N180, N210, N240, N270, and N300 kg ha-1) on yield and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from winter wheat growing season under different temperature rise levels (+0, +0.5, +1.0, +1.5, and +2.0 degrees C scenar-ios) and precipitation year types (wet, normal, and dry seasons) in the North China Plain. Model evaluations demon-strated that simulated soil temperature, soil moisture, daily N2Oflux, yield, and cumulative N2O emissions weregenerally in close agreement with measurements fromfield experiment over three growing seasons. By adopting simu-lation scenarios analysis, the model was then used to explore the effects of irrigation and N fertilizer inputs to balanceyield and N2O emissions from winter wheat growing season. Based on reduced water and fertilizer inputs and N2Oemissions with little yield penalty, recommended management practices included application of MI-N150 in wet season,CI-N120 in both normal and dry seasons, and CI-N150 for +0 to +2.0 degrees C scenarios. Recommended practices in differentprecipitation year types reduced irrigation amount by 75-150 mm, N rate by 75-105 kg N ha-1, yield by 0.16-0.86 tha-1, cumulative N2O emissions by 0.13-0.64 kg ha-1, and yield-scaled N2O emissions by 15.5-85.0 mg kg-1compared with current practices. The corresponding metrics for different elevated temperature levels decreased by75 mm, 75 kg N ha-1,0.09-0.50 t ha-1,0.12-0.52 kg ha-1,and13.7-72.3 mg kg-1, respectively. The proposed man-agement practices can help to maintain high agronomic productivity and alleviate environmental pollution from agricultural ecosystems, thereby providing an important basis for mitigation strategies to adapt to climate change

Wang, C; Qi, ZM; Zhao, JC; Gao, ZZ; Zhao, J; Chen, F; Chu, QQ

Sustainable water and nitrogen optimization to adapt to different temperature variations and rainfall patterns for a trade-off between winter wheat yield and N2O emissions br

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158822

Exploring crop spatial organizations within landscapes is a promising solution for agroecological transitions and climate change adaptation in Mediterranean rainfed hilly agrosystems. A prerequisite is to ensure that crop models can simulate a range of agrohydrological processes in such agrosystems. The current study deepened the evaluation of the AquaCrop model by conducting a multicriteria evaluation (canopy cover CC, dry aboveground biomass AGB, actual evapotranspiration ETa, runoff R, soil water content SWC) for a range of crop and soil combinations, and for contrasted hydroclimatic years in northeastern Tunisia. The data were collected in the Kamech catchment (OMERE Observatory) during nine measurement campaigns on predominant soils and crops. AquaCrop simulations were based on field observations and parameters from the literature. AquaCrop could simulate plant dynamics and water fluxes for contrasted hydroclimatic years, with a slight dependence on soil class and a significant dependence on crop type. Model simulations were of moderate quality for CC (R-2 of 0.45, RMSE of 0.24 on average) and of acceptable quality for AGB (R-2 of 0.81, RMSE of 0.85 ton ha(-1) on average). AquaCrop acceptably simulated water transfer across the soil-plant continuum (R-2 of 0.62, RMSE of 0.77 mm day(-1) on average for ETa; R-2 of 0.68, RMSE of 0.75 mm day(-1) on average for R; R-2 of 0.86, RMSE of 27.4 mm on average for SWC). The model performances were satisfactory for most cases, with p values larger than 5 % for the Student's t test on linear regressions of validation. Our results were similar to those reported in previous studies over flat terrain, including delayed senescence by model simulations with subsequent overestimation of CC and AGB observations. Additionally, soil cracks likely altered the AquaCrop ability to simulate runoff. Despite these limitations, our results support the application of AquaCrop to evaluate water productivity in hilly agrosystems.

Dhouib, M; Zitouna-Chebbi, R; Prévot, L; Molénat, J; Mekki, I; Jacob, F

Multicriteria evaluation of the AquaCrop crop model in a hilly rainfed Mediterranean agrosystem

Agricultural Water Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107912

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is receiving increasing attention due to its large storage potential in global carbon cycles and its great importance to soil fertility, agricultural production, and ecosystem services. The increases of SOC storage and reliable estimation of its potential are essential for evaluating the soil sustainability and climate change adaptation under intensive cultivation. In this work, a data-driven approach combining mixture clustering and Random Forest models was proposed to estimate the SOC storage potential of cropland topsoil and its controlling factors in East China. The carbon landscapes systems (CLSs) were delineated using a mixture clustering model by combining the climatic condition, soil properties, cropping systems, and soil management practices. The SOC storage potentials with 95 % confidence intervals at 250 m spatial resolution were estimated as the difference between the current SOC stock and empirically maximum SOC stock at basic (75 %), intermediate (85 %), and ambitious (95 %) expectation objectives for each CLS. The SOC storage potential increased with the increasing of expectation objective settings, with the averaged levels of 13.1, 20.8, and 35.5 t C ha(-1) at 75 %, 85 %, and 95 % percentile objectives, respectively. The variable importance from Random Forest indicated that the cropping systems and soil management practices were the unignorable factors controlling the SOC storage potential beyond the climatic conditions and soil properties. Moreover, the shifts of human-induced controlling factors, e.g., cropping systems, also indicated their capability of SOC sequestration potential for partly achieving the 4p1000 initiative (annual growth rate of 0.4 % carbon stocks in the first 30 cm of topsoil). The currently optimal soil management practices for achieving the SOC sequestration potential was the combination of rice-based cropping systems, straw return, and organic fertilizer applied. The data-driven approach coupling with CLSs improved our understanding of the controlling factors on SOC storage potential at regional level with homogenous conditions, enabling evidence-based decision making in promoting carbon sequestration by adopting locally feasible soil management practices.

Ma, WZ; Zhan, Y; Chen, SC; Ren, ZQ; Chen, XJ; Qin, FJ; Lu, RH; Lv, XN; Deng, XF

Organic carbon storage potential of cropland topsoils in East China: Indispensable roles of cropping systems and soil managements

Soil & Tillage Research

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.still.2021.105052

Agricultural decision support tools (DSTs) with weather or climate information can provide useful information to help stakeholders make operational farming decisions and adapt to increasingly variable weather or climate in the context of climate change. However, many of these DSTs are still not fully utilized. Understanding the use of DSTs can help identify strategies to promote their usage to more end-users. This study surveyed farmers (n = 2,633) and advisors (n = 2,719) across 12 states in the Midwest to draw comparisons on their usage of DSTs and factors influencing the usage. The advisors are more likely to take advantage of free and publicly available sources than farmers. Advisors are also more likely to agree on the usefulness of DSTs, feel social pressure to use DSTs, be concerned and perceive risks from variable weather, believe in climate change, and show positive attitudes towards climate change adaptation than farmers. Concerns about weather or climate, descriptive social norms, greater farm size, and general propensity to adopt a new technology are positively associated with higher adoption rate of DSTs for both farmers and advisors. Higher level of perceived behavioral control to deal with weather-related risks, injunctive social norms, gender (male), and age are positively associated with higher adoption rate of DSTs for only advisors. Positive adaptation attitude towards climate change and higher education level are positively associated with higher adoption rate of DSTs for only farmers. Unlike advisors, age is negatively associated with higher adoption rate of DSTs for farmers. Implications of our findings include DST educators leveraging social networks and reinforcing social norms to promote usage among current non-users, building up both farmers' and advisors' confidence and knowledge in using DSTs, understanding the role of advisors as change agents to promote DST usage among farmers, and connecting networks of innovators and early adopters. With more and more DSTs developed, future scholarship can draw upon our findings to understand how to encourage DSTs adoption among current non-users and extend to other regions.

Lu, JY; Singh, AS; Koundinya, V; Ranjan, P; Haigh, T; Getson, JM; Klink, J; Prokopy, LS

Explaining the use of online agricultural decision support tools with weather or climate information in the Midwestern United States

Journal Of Environmental Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111758

Wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region of North America are vulnerable to climate change. Adaptation of farming practices to mitigate adverse impacts of climate change on wetland water levels is a potential watershed management option. We chose a modeling approach (WETSIM 3.2) to examine the effects of changes in climate and watershed cover on the water levels of a semi-permanent wetland in eastern South Dakota. Land-use practices simulated were unmanaged grassland, grassland managed with moderately heavy grazing, and cultivated crops. Climate scenarios were developed by adjusting the historical climate in combinations of 2 degrees C and 4 degrees C air temperature and +/- 10% precipitation. For these climate change scenarios, simulations of land use that produced water levels equal to or greater than unmanaged grassland under historical climate were judged to have mitigative potential against a drier climate. Water levels in wetlands surrounded by managed grasslands were significantly greater than those surrounded by unmanaged grassland. Management reduced both the proportion of years the wetland went dry and the frequency of dry periods, producing the most dynamic vegetation cycle for this modeled wetland. Both cultivated crops and managed grassland achieved water levels that were equal or greater than unmanaged grassland under historical climate for the 2 degrees C rise in air temperature, and the 2 degrees C rise plus 10% increase in precipitation scenarios. Managed grassland also produced water levels that were equal or greater than unmanaged grassland under historical climate for the 4 degrees C rise plus 10% increase in precipitation scenario. Although these modeling results stand as hypotheses, they indicate that amelioration potential exists for a change in climate up to an increase of 2 degrees C or 4 degrees C with a concomitant 10% increase in precipitation. Few empirical data exist to verify the results of such land-use simulations; however, adaptation of farming practices is one possible mitigation avenue available for prairie wetlands.

Voldseth, RA; Johnson, WC; Guntenspergen, GR; Gilmanov, T; Millett, BV

ADAPTATION OF FARMING PRACTICES COULD BUFFER EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON NORTHERN PRAIRIE WETLANDS

Wetlands

https://doi.org/10.1672/07-241.1

Climate change has increased the frequency of extreme climatic events and the intensity of heatwaves in high-latitude cities that have rarely been affected in the past, yet there is less attention to these regions. Therefore, we selected Copenhagen as the case, we used spatial/statistical methods to assess the cooling-effect of blue-green spaces in different seasons. We found (1) land surface temperature (LST) is negatively correlated with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) in all seasons; (2) Tree-covered greenspace with a compact shape would be a priority for climate adaption in high-latitude cities. While when the area of blue-green space is large to a certain extent ( > 1 ha), the complex shape also has a strong cooling-effect. Further, the area and cooling extent and intensity conform a logarithm function with significant correlations except for winter. (3) Compared with other seasons, blue-green space provides a higher cooling-effect in summer, and the mean cooling extent and intensity are 150 m and 2.47 degrees C; (4) Background temperature can significantly affect the threshold value of efficiency (TVoE). The results of this study expand the understanding of the cooling-effect of blue-green spaces and provide implications for sustainable urban planning.

Yang, GY; Yu, ZW; Jorgensen, G; Vejre, H

How can urban blue-green space be planned for climate adaption in high-latitude cities? A seasonal perspective

Sustainable Cities And Society

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2019.101932

The E'AppleBP is the largest Brazilian apple breeding program in activity in Brazil, with Brazilian and international contributions to breeding of apple cultivars, under public funding. The main objectives are development of new apple cultivars with good local climate adaptation, disease resistance, high yield, high fruit quality, good fruit storability and lower demand for orchard hand labor. Twenty-seven apple cultivars have been released, including 15 from local breeding crosses and four sport mutations. 'Fuji Suprema; 'Monalisa; 'Venice; 'Daiane; luiza; and 'Kinkas' are most promising for commercial use. The other eight cultivars were released for use as pollinizers.

Denardi, F; Kvitschal, MV; Hawerroth, MC

A brief history of the forty-five years of the Epagri apple breeding program in Brazil

Crop Breeding And Applied Biotechnology

https://doi.org/10.1590/1984-70332019v19n3p47

Collaboration barriers have been reported among the most frequent institutional constraints to adaptation. Yet, the growing literature on the topic has been largely descriptive and little attention has been placed on how to transform barriers into enablers for action. By taking a fragile socio-ecological lagoon system in Southern Mexico as a case study, the paper applies a social network analytical approach to: i) reveal the actual web of connections tying stakeholders through local governance arrangements; ii) identify shortcomings in multi-actor collaboration networks; and iii) propose ways to tackle them so that the full potential of adaptation can be exploited. The paper employs a mixed-method approach combining both a quantitative and qualitative Social Network Analysis (SNA). The quantitative SNA is used to assess the quality and strength of relationships among formal public organisations working on climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction in the site. The qualitative SNA is employed to both assess linking ties between formal organizations and local coastal communities potentially targeted with adaptation interventions, and bonding ties connecting community members. The approach proves to be useful to map the relational architecture of the system of interest and to reveal network characteristics that are important for collective action including: network fragmentation in subgroups; density of relations; centralization around a few actors. The actual topology of the network, as revealed, can then be compared with what is required for achieving societally desired adaptation outcomes and for identifying agents that can promote change. The paper acknowledges that a social analytical approach might be limited in unveiling the interests and motives behind actors' participation in the network, and that the latter ultimately determine actors' contribution in defining and enacting a joint solution for a common problem. However, the mixed-methods approach presented in this paper allows for gaining first insights on the way a mismatch between formal and informal institutions might drive socio-ecological systems towards inadequate adaptation outcomes.

Calliari, E; Michetti, M; Farnia, L; Rarnieri, E

A network approach for moving from planning to implementation in climate change adaptation: Evidence from southern Mexico

Environmental Science & Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2018.11.025

Currently, there is no method available that can systematically score the available ecosystem services in streets or street segments in suburban districts. In this study, different climate adaptation measures and their ecosystem services were categorized into green, blue, and grey categories and weight was given to each category based on their impact on the microclimate. This study took place in the Hillesluis district in the city of Rotterdam and the Paddepoel district in the city of Groningen. In Rotterdam, 21 streets, composed of 42 street segments, were assessed. In Groningen, 17 streets, composed of 45 street segments, were assessed. The available ecosystem services of each street segment were scored from 0-100. The scorecard method that was developed and tested during this study provided insight in the variation of available ecosystem services of streets and street segments. Individual street scores were very low in the city of Rotterdam and ranged between 3 and 50, with the average score for the street segments of 29. In Groningen, the scores were considerably higher with a range between 23 and 70, with an average score of 47 per street segment. The presence of larger green trees, front yards, and facade gardens in the green category are the most distinctive variable, while adaptation measures in the blue category were absent in both cities. The scorecard proved to be very useful in the adaptation labeling of street segments and entire streets. After assessing a neighborhood, the least adaptive streets can be identified relatively easy. Based on the score a label can be given between A+++ and G. The scorecard informs residents and decision makers about which streets are most adaptive and which streets have an adaptation potential. The method can easily be duplicated and used by local governments and community groups to have better insight in the level of climate adaptation of their street. Labels for entire streets can be used to create awareness and encourage residents to take action and expand the number of climate adaptation measures in their street.

Heikoop, R; Idahmanen, A; de Ruiter, P; Oosthoek, E; van der Heijden, A; Boogaard, F

The Environment in the Lead: A Scorecard System to Assess Adaptation Measures and Score Ecosystem Services at the Street Level

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su141912425

Climate change will significantly impact the future viability and security of food production systems, with increased frequency and intensity of droughts, floods, storms and other extreme climatic events predicted in many regions. In order for food production systems to remain viable and resilient under a changing climate, novel approaches, which integrate risk management (i.e. adaptation) and risk transfer strategies, such as insurance, are required. We argue that the coordinated integration of risk management and risk transfer approaches will support greater resilience of food production systems under climate change. Conversely, if risk management and risk transfer strategies are not carefully integrated, there is potential to undermine adaptive capacity (e.g. insurance subsidies may dissuade farmers from investing in climate adaptation) and ultimately reduce the capacity of food production systems to cope with and recover from the adverse impacts of climate change. Here we propose a resilience-based conceptual framework for integrating risk management and risk transfer strategies along with four key principles, which we believe could underlie their successful integration and thus enhance food production system resilience under climate change. These are as follows: (1) pro-active investments in farmer climate adaptation rather than re-active disaster relief, (2) structuring of government subsidies around insurance and climate disaster relief to incentivise farmer climate adaptation, (3) rewarding farmer efforts towards climate adaptation with cheaper insurance premiums for those farmers that invest resources into climate adaptation and (4) recognising investments in the integration of farm climate adaptation and risk transfer schemes within the broader context of future climate disaster risk management and global food security. Such an integrated investment approach could substantially reduce future economic losses for farmers while also enhancing food security under climate change.

Mushtaq, S; Kath, J; Stone, R; Henry, R; Läderach, P; Reardon-Smith, K; Cobon, D; Marcussen, T; Cliffe, N; Kristiansen, P; Pischke, F

Creating positive synergies between risk management and transfer to accelerate food system climate resilience

Climatic Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02679-5

The Tibetan grassland social-ecological systems are widely held to be highly vulnerable to climate change. We aim to investigate livelihood adaptation strategies of herder households and the types of local institutions that shaped those adaptation strategies. We examined the barriers and opportunities for strengthening adaptive capacity of local herder communities. We designed and implemented a household survey in the herder communities of northern Tibet. The survey results showed that migratory grazing has become less feasible. Storage, diversification, and market exchange have become the dominant adaptation strategies. The adaptation strategies of local herders have been reshaped by local institutional change. Local governmental and market institutions played the dominant roles in reshaping climate adaptation strategies. Although the present livelihood adaption strategies related to sedentary grazing have improved productivity and profitability of the herding livelihood, they have led to continuous deterioration of pastures. The local grazing system has become more and more dependent on artificial feeding and inputs from outside the grazing system. Purchasing forage has become one of the dominant adaptation strategies of local herder households. Multilevel regression modeling of this adaptation behavior showed that explanatory variables related to climate variability, household capital, and local institutional arrangements had statistically significant relationships with the adoption of this adaptation strategy. The results implies that building household capital and promoting the coordination among local governmental, market, and communal institutions are critical for strengthening adaptive capacity of the Tibetan herder communities.

Wang, J; Wang, Y; Li, SC; Qin, DH

Climate adaptation, institutional change, and sustainable livelihoods of herder communities in northern Tibet

Ecology And Society

https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-08170-210105

Over the years, the energy discourse has tenaciously focused on energy transitions to expedite climate mitigation efforts. This has inadvertently resulted in little attention to the other important link between energy and climate, namely energy access and climate adaptation. In particular, the potential role of reliable, affordable and sustainable modern energy services in strengthening societies' adaptive capacities to address climate disaster events has been ignored across both policy and practice. This paper probes these links and argues for a critically co-dependent conceptual relationship between energy access, rural development, and climate adaptation and disaster management. It then explores how, if at all, these links may exist in Odisha, one of India's most climate vulnerable states with low socio-economic development. The paper concludes that a deep-seated policy reform is necessary to bring about a shift in how we a) measure 'successful' disaster policy, b) understand the role of energy in a disaster context, and c) recognise, and seek greater synergies between energy access, rural development and climate adaptation objectives.

Sharma, V

Access for adaptation? Reviewing the linkages between energy, disasters, and development in India

Energy Research & Social Science

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2019.01.025

Adapting agricultural systems to changes in seasonal precipitation is critical for the agricultural sector in Sri Lanka. This paper presents evidence on the adoption drivers and the welfare impacts of agricultural strategies adopted by Sri Lankan rice farmers to adapt to low rainfall conditions. We estimate the causal impact of adopting different adaptive strategies across three different dimensions: (a) sensitivity to water stress, (b) household productivity, and (c) household livelihood conditions. The results highlight important trade-offs faced by farmers between reducing vulnerability to water stress and maximizing profitability and welfare outcomes. These findings are important for informing policies to support climate adaptation among smallholders, and to build and improve the climate resilience of Sri Lanka's rice sector.

Scognamillo, A; Sitko, N; Bandara, S; Hewage, S; Munaweera, T; Kwon, J

The challenge of making climate adaptation profitable for farmers: evidence from Sri Lanka's rice sector

Environment And Development Economics

https://doi.org/10.1017/S1355770X21000371

A common goal among fisheries science professionals, stakeholders, and rights holders is to ensure the persistence and resilience of vibrant fish populations and sustainable, equitable fisheries in diverse aquatic ecosystems, from small headwater streams to offshore pelagic waters. Achieving this goal requires a complex intersection of science and management, and a recognition of the interconnections among people, place, and fish that govern these tightly coupled socioecological and sociotechnical systems. The World Fisheries Congress (WFC) convenes every four years and provides a unique global forum to debate and discuss threats, issues, and opportunities facing fish populations and fisheries. The 2021 WFC meeting, hosted remotely in Adelaide, Australia, marked the 30th year since the first meeting was held in Athens, Greece, and provided an opportunity to reflect on progress made in the past 30 years and provide guidance for the future. We assembled a diverse team of individuals involved with the Adelaide WFC and reflected on the major challenges that faced fish and fisheries over the past 30 years, discussed progress toward overcoming those challenges, and then used themes that emerged during the Congress to identify issues and opportunities to improve sustainability in the world's fisheries for the next 30 years. Key future needs and opportunities identified include: rethinking fisheries management systems and modelling approaches, modernizing and integrating assessment and information systems, being responsive and flexible in addressing persistent and emerging threats to fish and fisheries, mainstreaming the human dimension of fisheries, rethinking governance, policy and compliance, and achieving equity and inclusion in fisheries. We also identified a number of cross-cutting themes including better understanding the role of fish as nutrition in a hungry world, adapting to climate change, embracing transdisciplinarity, respecting Indigenous knowledge systems, thinking ahead with foresight science, and working together across scales. By reflecting on the past and thinking about the future, we aim to provide guidance for achieving our mutual goal of sustaining vibrant fish populations and sustainable fisheries that benefit all. We hope that this prospective thinking can serve as a guide to (i) assess progress towards achieving this lofty goal and (ii) refine our path with input from new and emerging voices and approaches in fisheries science, management, and stewardship.

Cooke, SJ; Fulton, EA; Sauer, WHH; Lynch, AJ; Link, JS; Koning, AA; Jena, J; Silva, LGM; King, AJ; Kelly, R; Osborne, M; Nakamura, J; Preece, AL; Hagiwara, A; Forsberg, K; Kellner, JB; Coscia, I; Helyar, S; Barange, M; Nyboer, E; Williams, MJ; Chuenpagdee, R; Begg, GA; Gillanders, BM

Towards vibrant fish populations and sustainable fisheries that benefit all: learning from the last 30 years to inform the next 30 years

Reviews In Fish Biology And Fisheries

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11160-023-09765-8

The world is urbanizing most rapidly in tropical to sub-temperate areas and in coastal zones. Climate change along with other global change forcings will diminish the opportunities for sustainability of cities, especially in coastal areas in low-income countries. Climate forcings include global temperature and heatwave increases that are expanding the equatorial tropical belt, sea-level rise, an increase in the frequency of the most intense tropical cyclones, both increases and decreases in freshwater inputs to coastal zones, and increasingly severe extreme precipitation events, droughts, freshwater shortages, heat waves, and wildfires. Current climate impacts are already strongly influencing natural and human systems. Because of proximity to several key warming variables such as sea-level rise and increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves, coastal cities are a leading indicator of what may occur worldwide. Climate change alone will diminish the sustainability and resilience of coastal cities, especially in the tropical-subtropical belt, but combined with other global changes, this suite of forcings represents an existential threat, especially for coastal cities. Urbanization has coincided with orders of magnitude increases in per capita GDP, energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, which in turn has led to unprecedented demand for natural resources and degradation of natural systems and more expensive infrastructure to sustain the flows of these resources. Most resources to fuel cities are extracted from ex-urban areas far away from their point of final use. The urban transition over the last 200 years is a hallmark of the Anthropocene coinciding with large surges in use of energy, principally fossil fuels, population, consumption and economic growth, and environmental impacts such as natural system degradation and climate change. Fossil energy enabled and underwrote Anthropocene origins and fueled the dramatic expansion of modern urban systems. It will be difficult for renewable energy and other non-fossil energy sources to ramp up fast enough to fuel further urban growth and maintenance and reverse climate change all the while minimizing further environmental degradation. Given these trajectories, the future sustainability of cities and urbanization trends, especially in threatened areas like coastal zones in low-income countries in the tropical to sub-tropical belt, will likely diminish. Adaptation to climate change may be limited and challenging to implement, especially for low-income countries.

Day, JW; Gunn, JD; Burger, JR

Diminishing Opportunities for Sustainability of Coastal Cities in the Anthropocene: A Review

Frontiers In Environmental Science

https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2021.663275