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TS.E.1.4 For urban and infrastructure system transitions, there is medium confidence for sustainable land use and urban planning. There is high confidence in the economic and ecological feasibility of green infrastructure and ecosystem services, as well as sustainable urban water management, once institutional barriers in the form of limited social and political acceptability are overcome. Social safety nets, disaster risk management and climate services and population health and health systems are considered overarching adaptation options due to their applicability across all system transitions. There is medium to high confidence in the high feasibility of disaster risk management and the use of demand-driven and context- specific climate services as well as in the socioeconomic feasibility of social safety nets. Improving health systems through enhancing access to medical services and developing or strengthening surveillance systems can have high feasibility when there is a robust institutional and regulatory framework . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.E.1.5 There are multiple possible pathways by which communities, nations and the world can pursue climate resilient development. Moving towards different pathways involves confronting complex synergies and trade-offs between development pathways and the options, contested values and interests that underpin climate mitigation and adaptation choices . Climate resilient development pathways are trajectories for the pursuit of climate resilient development and navigating its complexities. Different actors, the private sector and civil society, influenced by science, local and Indigenous knowledges, and the media, are both active and passive in designing and navigating climate resilient development pathways. Increasing levels of warming may narrow the options and choices available for local survival and sustainable development for human societies and ecosystems. Limiting warming to Paris Agreement goals will reduce the magnitude of climate risks to which people, places, the economy and ecosystems will have to adapt. Reconciling the costs, benefits and trade-offs associated with | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.E.1.6. Economic sectors and global regions are exposed to different opportunities and challenges in facilitating climate resilient development, suggesting adaptation and mitigation options should be aligned to local and regional context and development pathways . Given their current state of development, some regions may prioritise poverty and inequality reduction and economic development over the near term as a means of building capacity for climate action and low-carbon development over the long term. In contrast, developed economies with mature economies and high levels of resilience may prioritise climate action to transition their energy systems and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Some interventions may be robust in that they are relevant to a broad range of potential development trajectories and could be deployed in a flexible manner. However, other types of interventions, such as those that are dependent upon emerging technologies, may require a specific set of enhanced enabling conditions or factors, including infrastructure, supply chains, international cooperation and education and training that currently limit their implementation to certain settings. Notwithstanding national and regional differences, development practices that are aligned to people, prosperity, partnerships, peace and the planet as defined in Agenda 2030 could enable more climate resilient development. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.E.1.7 Pursuing climate resilient development involves considering a broader range of sustainable development priorities, policies and practices, as well as enabling societal choices to accelerate and deepen their implementation . Scientific assessments of climate change have traditionally framed solutions around the implementation of specific adaptation and mitigation options as mechanisms for reducing climate-related risks. They have given less attention to a fuller set of societal priorities and the role of non-climate policies, social norms, lifestyles, power relationships and worldviews in enabling climate action and sustainable development. Because climate resilient development involves different actors pursuing plural development trajectories in diverse contexts, the pursuit of solutions that are equitable for all requires opening the space for engagement and action to a diversity of people, institutions, forms of knowledge and worldviews. Through inclusive modes of engagement that enhance knowledge sharing and realise the productive potential of diverse perspectives and worldviews, societies could alter institutional structures and arrangements, development processes, choices and actions that have precipitated dangerous climate change, constrained the achievement of SDGs and thus limited pathways to achieving climate resilient development. The current decade is critical to charting climate resilient development pathways that catalyse the transformation of prevailing development practices and offer the greatest promise and potential for human well-being and planetary health . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.E.2 Climate action and sustainable development are interdependent. Pursued in an inclusive and integrated manner, they enhance human and ecological well-being. Sustainable development is fundamental to capacity for climate action, including reductions in greenhouse gas emissions as well as enhancing social and ecological resilience to climate change. Increasing social and gender equity is an integral part of the technological and social transitions and transformation towards climate resilient development. Such transitions in societal systems reduce poverty and enable greater equity and agency in decision-making. They often require rights-based approaches to protect the livelihoods, priorities and survival of marginalised groups including Indigenous Peoples, women, ethnic minorities and children . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.E.2.1 Conditions enabling rapid increases and innovative climate responses include experience of extreme events or climate education influencing perceptions of urgency, together with the actions of catalysing agents such as social movements and technological entrepreneurs. People who have experienced climate shocks are more likely to implement risk management measures . Autonomous adaptation is very common in locations where people are more exposed to extreme events and have the resources and the temporal capacity to act on their own, for example in remote communities . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.E.2.2 A range of policies, practices and enabling conditions accelerate efforts towards climate resilient development. Diverse actors including youth, women, Indigenous communities and business leaders are the agents of societal changes and transformations that enable climate resilient development . Greater attention to which actors benefit, fail to benefit or are directly harmed by different types of interventions could significantly advance efforts to pursue climate resilient development. . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.E.2.3 Climate adaptation actions are grounded in local realities so understanding links with SDG 5 on gender equality ensures that adaptive actions do not worsen existing gender and other inequities within society . Adaptation actions do not automatically have positive outcomes for gender equality. Understanding the positive and negative links of adaptation actions with gender equality goals is important to ensure that adaptive actions do not exacerbate existing gender-based and other social inequalities. Efforts are needed to change unequal power dynamics and to foster inclusive decision-making for climate adaptation to have a positive impact for gender equality . There are very few examples of successful integration of gender and other social inequities in climate policies to address climate change vulnerabilities and questions of social justice . Yet inequities in climate change literacy compounds women's vulnerability to climate change through its negative effect on climate risk perception | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Panel Higher climate resilient development is characterised by outcomes that advance sustainable development for all. Climate resilient development is progressively harder to achieve with global warming levels beyond 1.5℃. Inadequate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030 reduces climate resilient development prospects. There is a narrowing window of opportunity to shift pathways towards more climate resilient development futures as reflected by the adaptation limits and increasing climate risks, considering the remaining carbon budgets. . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Panel Appropriate choices for fostering climate resilient development pathways involve considering the portfolio of risks, the potential for adaptations to satisfactorily reduce risks and not exacerbate others, the potential for mitigation measures to interact with risks and adaptations within and across sectors, and how and whether adaptations can be enabled. The graphic table illustrates a possible assembly of these considerations for four sectors in the region Africa, showing top panel: the potential for cascading and compounding effects amongst risks within sectors, between sectors and across boundaries and the possible constraints for adaptation and the adaptation gap to be filled ; second panel: the potential for adaptations to reduce risks, including their feasibility , their interaction with other adaptations addressing the same or interacting risks, and whether they are limited by global warming level ; third panel: the mitigation measures grouped into categories that might interact with risks and adaptations, including showing their importance and whether the interaction would be potentially positive, negative or a mixture of both ; bottom panel: Enabling conditions for sectors grouped into categories of enablers common across many sectors, showing their importance and how they may be suitable across a number of sectors, along with an assessment of the gap in the enabler for satisfactory adaptation . Confidence levels on each cell are indicated as *= low confidence, ** = medium confidence, *** = high confidence. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.E.2.4 Gender-sensitive, equity- and justice-based adaptation approaches, integration of Indigenous knowledge systems within legal frameworks and the promotion of Indigenous land tenure rights reduce vulnerability and increase resilience . Integrating adaptation into social protection programmes can build long-term resilience to climate change . Nevertheless, social protection programmes can increase resilience to climate related shocks, even if they do not specifically address climate risks . Climate adaptation actions are grounded in local realities so understanding links with SDGs is important to ensure that adaptive actions do not worsen existing gender and other inequities within society, leading to maladaptation practices . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.E.2.5 Water can be either an enabler or a hindrance to success- ful adaptation and sustainable development. Central to equity issues about water is that it remains a public good . Overcoming institutional and financial constraints , including path dependency, is among the most important requirements enabling effective adaptation in the water sector . Water-related challenges, despite reported adaptation efforts, indicate limits of adaptation in the absence of water neutral mitigation action . For some regions, such as small island states, coastal areas and mountainous regions, water availability already has the potential to become a hard limit on adapta- tion . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.E.2.6 Procedural and distributional justice and flexible institutions facilitate successful adaptation and minimise maladaptive outcomes. Reorienting existing institutions to become more flexible and inclusive is key to building adaptive governance systems that are equipped to take long-term decisions . Enhancing climate governance, institutional capacity and differentiated policies and regulation from the local to global scale enables and accelerates climate resilient development. Transforming financial systems to deliver the SDGs, while accelerating system transitions and addressing physical and transition risks, is a precondition. Changes in lifestyles, human behaviour and preferences can have a significant impact on adaptation implementation, demand and hence emissions and decision-making around climate action . Additionally, the use of customary and traditional justice systems, such as those of Indigenous peoples, can enhance the equity of adaptation policy processes . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.E.2.7 Enabling environments for adaptation that support equitable sustainable development are essential for those with climate-sensitive livelihoods who are often least able to adapt and influence decision-making . Enabling environments share common governance characteristics, including the meaningful involvement of multiple actors and assets, alongside multiple centres of power at different levels that are well integrated, vertically and horizontally . Enabling conditions harness synergies, address moral and ethical choices and divergent values and interests and support just approaches to livelihood transitions that do not undermine human well-being . Climate solutions for health, well-being and the changing | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.E.2.8 Prevailing ideologies or worldviews, institutions and sociopolitical relations influence development trajectories by framing climate narratives and possibilities for action . The interplay between worldviews and ethics, sociopolitical relations, institutions and human behaviour influence public engagement by individuals and communities. These open up opportunities for meaningful engagement and co-production of pathways towards climate resilient development. The urgency of climate action is a potential enabler of climate decision-making . Perceptions of urgency encourage communities, businesses and leaders to undertake climate adaptation and mitigation measures more quickly and to prioritise climate action . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.E.3 A focus on climate risk alone does not enable effective climate resilience . The integration of consideration of non-climatic drivers into adaptation pathways can reduce climate impacts across food systems, human settlements, health, water, economies and livelihoods . Strengthened health, education and basic social services are vital for improving population well-being and supporting climate resilient development . The use of climate-smart agriculture technologies that strengthen synergies among productivity and mitigation is growing as an important adaptation strategy . Pertinent information for farmers provided by climate information services is helping them to understand the role of climate compared with other drivers in perceived productivity changes . Index insurance builds resilience and contributes to adaptation both by protecting farmers' assets in the face of major climate shocks, by promoting access to credit and by adopting improved farm technologies and practices . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.E.3.2 Some communities/regions are resilient with strong social safety nets and social capital that support responses and actions already occurring, but there is limited information on the effectiveness of adaptation practices and the scale of action needed . Among island communities, greater insights into which drivers weaken local communities and Indigenous Peoples' resilience, together with recognition of the sociopolitical contexts within which communities operate, can assist in identifying opportunities at all scales to enhance climate adaptation and enable action towards climate resilient development pathways . Adaptation responses to climate- driven impacts in mountain regions vary significantly in terms of goals and priorities, scope, depth and speed of implementation, governance and modes of decision-making and the extent of financial and other resources to implement them . Adaptation in Africa has multiple benefits, and most assessed adaptation options have medium effectiveness at reducing risks for present-day global warming, but their efficacy at future warming levels is largely unknown . In Australia and New Zealand, a range of incremental and transformative adaptation options and pathways is available as long as enablers are in place to implement them . Several enablers can be used to improve adaptation outcomes and to build resilience , including better governance and legal reforms; improving justice, equity and gender considerations; building human resource capacity; increased finance and risk transfer mechanisms; education and awareness programmes; increased access to climate information; adequately downscaled climate data; inclusion of Indigenous knowledge; and integrating cultural resources into decision-making . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.E.3.3 Identifying and advancing synergies and co-benefits of mitigation, adaptation and SDGs has occurred slowly and unevenly . One area of sustained effort is community-based adaptation planning actions that have potential to be better integrated to enhance well-being and create synergies with the SDG ambitions of leaving no one behind . Complex trade-offs and gaps in alignment between mitigation and adaptation over scale and across policy areas where sustainable development is hindered or reversed also remain . Globally, decisions about key infrastructure systems and urban expansion drive risk creation and potential action on climate change . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
knowledge-based adaptation can accelerate effective robust climate resilient development pathways . Indigenous knowledge underpins successful understanding of, responses to and governance of climate change risks . For example, Indigenous knowledge contains resource-use practices and ecosystem stewardship strategies that conserve and enhance both wild and domestic biodiversity, resulting in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and species that are often less degraded in Indigenous managed lands in other lands . Valuing Indigenous knowledge systems is a key component of climate justice . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.E.3.5 Ecosystem-based adaptation reduces climate risk across sectors, providing social, economic, health and environmental co-benefits . Direct human dependence on ecosystem services, ecosystem health, and ecosystem protection and restoration, conservation agriculture, sustainable land management and integrated catchment management support climate resilience. Inclusion of interdisciplinary scientific information, Indigenous knowledge and practical expertise is essential to effective ecosystem-based adaptation , and there is a large risk of maladaptation where this does not happen . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.E.4 Maintaining planetary health is essential for human and societal health and a pre-condition for climate resilient development . Effective ecosystem conservation on approximately 30% to 50% of Earth's land, freshwater and ocean areas, including all remaining areas with a high degree of naturalness and ecosystem integrity, will help protect biodiversity, build ecosystem resilience and ensure essential ecosystem services . In addition to this protection, sustainable management of the rest of the planet is also important. The protected area required to maintain ecosystem integrity varies by ecosystem type and region, and their placement will determine the quality and ecological representativeness of the resulting network. Ecosystem services that are under threat from a combination of climate change and other anthropogenic pressures include climate change mitigation, flood-risk management and water supply . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
the resilience of the ecosystem as a whole, including its capacity to persist through climate change and recover from extreme events . Species extinction levels that are more than 1000 times natural background rates as a result of anthropogenic pressures, and climate change will increasingly exacerbate this . Conservation efforts are more effective when integrated into local spatial plans inclusive of adaptation responses, alongside sustainable food and fiber production systems . Strong inclusive governance systems and participatory planning processes that support equitable and effective adaptation outcomes, are gender sensitive and reduce intergroup conflict are required for enhanced ecosystem protection and restoration . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.E.4.2 Solutions that support biodiversity and the integrity of ecosystems deliver essential co-benefits for people including livelihoods, food and water security and human health and well- being . Limiting warming to 2ºC and protecting 30% of high-biodiversity regions in Africa, Asia and Latin America is estimated to reduce the risk of species extinctions by half . Meeting the increasing needs of the human population for food and fibre production requires transformation in management regimes to recognise dependencies on local healthy ecosystems, with greater sustainability, including through increased use of agroecological farming approaches and adaptation to the changing climate . People with higher levels of contact with nature have been found to be significantly happier, healthier and more satisfied with their lives . Participatory, inclusive governance approaches such as adaptive co-management or community-based planning, which integrate those groups who rely on these ecosystems , support equitable and effective adaptation outcomes . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.E.4.3 Protecting and building the resilience of ecosystems through restoration, in ways which are consistent with sustainable development, are essential for effective climate change mitigation . Degradation and loss of ecosystems is a major cause of greenhouse gas emissions, which is increasingly exacerbated by climate change . Globally, there is a 38% overlap between areas of high carbon storage and high intact biodiversity, but only 12% of that is protected . Addressing this gap will require an approach which takes account of human needs, particularly food security. Tropical rainforests and global peatlands are particularly important carbon stores but are highly threatened by human disturbance, land conversion and fire. Climate resilient development will require strategies for land-based climate change mitigation to be integrated with adaptation, biodiversity and sustainable development objectives; there is good potential for positive synergies, but also the potential for conflict, including with afforestation and bioenergy crops, when these objectives are pursued in isolation . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.E.4.4 Adaptive management in response to ecosystem change is increasingly necessary, and more so under higher emissions scenarios . Feedback from monitoring and assessments of the changing state of planetary conditions and local ecosystems enables proactive adaptation to manage risks and minimise impacts . Integrated sectoral approaches promoting climate resilience, particularly for addressing the impacts of extreme events, are key to effective climate resilient development . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.E.4.5 Adaptation cannot prevent all risks to biodiversity and ecosystem services . Adaptation of conservation strategies, by building resilience and planning for unavoidable change, can reduce harm but will not be possible in all systems, for example, fragile ecosystems that reach critical thresholds or tipping points such as coral reefs, some forests, sea ice and permafrost systems. Conservation and restoration will alone be insufficient to protect coral reefs beyond 2030 and to protect mangroves beyond the 2040s . Deep cuts in emissions will be necessary to minimise irreversible loss and damage . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.E.5 Governance arrangements and practices are presently ineffective to reduce risks, reverse path dependencies and maladaptation and facilitate climate resilient development . Governance for climate resilient development involves diverse societal actors, including the most vulnerable, who can work collectively, drawing upon local and Indigenous knowledges and science, and are supported by strong political will and climate change leadership . Governance practices will work best when they are coordinated within and between multiple scales and levels and sectors, with supporting financial resources, are tailored for local conditions, are gender-responsive and gender-inclusive and are founded upon enduring institutional and social learning capabilities to address the complexity, dynamism, uncertainty and contestation that characterise escalating climate risk . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.E.5.2 Climate governance arrangements and practices are enabled when they are embedded in societal systems that advance human well-being and planetary health . Collective action and strengthened networked collaboration, more inclusive governance, spatial planning and risk-sensitive infrastructure delivery will contribute to reducing risks . Enablers for climate governance include better practices and legal reforms, improving justice, equity and gender considerations, building human resource capacity, increased finance and risk transfer mechanisms, education and climate change literacy programmes, increased access to climate information, adequately downscaled climate data and embedding Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge as well as integrating cultural resources into decision-making . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.E.5.3 Climate governance will be most effective when it has meaningful and ongoing involvement of all societal actors from local to global levels . Actors, including individuals and households, communities, governments at all levels, private-sector businesses, non-governmental organisations, Indigenous Peoples, religious groups and social movements, at many scales and in many sectors, are adapting already and can take stronger adaptation and mitigation actions. Many forms of adaptation are more effective, more cost-efficient and more equitable when organised inclusively . Greater coordination and engagement across levels of government, business and community serves to move from planning to action and from reactive to proactive adaptation . Inclusion of all societal actors helps to secure credibility, relevance and legitimacy, while fostering commitment and social learning , as well as equity and well-being, and reduces long- term vulnerability across scales . Social movements in many cities, including those led by youth, have heightened public awareness about the need for urgent, inclusive adaptation that can enhance well-being, foster formal and informal cooperation and coherence between different institutions and build new adaptive capacities. City and local governments remain key actors facilitating climate change adaptation in cities and settlements . Private and business investment in key infrastructure, housing construction and insurance can drive adaptive action at scale but can exclude the priorities of the poor . Networked community actions can address neighbourhood-scale improvements and vulnerability at scale . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
international legal and policy instruments can support the development and implementation of adaptation and climate risk management and reduce exposure to key risks . Dedicated climate change acts can play a foundational and distinctive role in supporting effective climate governance, and are drivers of subsequent activity in both developing and developed countries . The transboundary nature of many climate change risks and species responses will require transboundary solutions through multi-national or regional governance processes on land and at sea . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.E.5.5 Multi-lateral governance efforts can help reconcile contested interests, worldviews and values about how to address climate change . Policy responses and strategies that localise development and expand the adaptation and mobility options of populations exposed to climatic risks can also reduce risks of climate-related conflict and political instability . Formal institutional arrangements for natural resource management can contribute to wider cooperation and peacebuilding . Reducing vulnerability depends on the inclusive engagement of the most vulnerable, is gender-responsive and includes key societal actors from civil society, the private sector and government, with an especially important role played by local government in partnership with local communities. Strong governance and gender-sensitive approaches to natural resource management reduce the risk of intergroup conflict in climate-disrupted areas . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.E.5.6 A range of governance processes, practices and tools that are applicable across a range of temporal and spatial scales are available to support inclusive decision-making for adaptation and risk management in diverse settings . National guidance and laws, policies and regulations, decision tools that can be tailored to local circumstances, innovative engagement processes and collaborative governance can motivate better understanding of climate risk and build climate resilient development . Collaborative networks and institutions, including among local communities and their governing authorities, can help resolve conflicts . A combination of robust climate information, adaptive decision-making under uncertainty, land use planning, public engagement and conflict resolution approaches can help to address governance constraints to prepare for climate risks and build adaptive capacity . New modelling, monitoring and evaluation approaches, alongside disruptive technologies, can help understand the societal implications of trade-offs and build integrated pathways of low-regret anticipatory options, established jointly across sectors in a timely manner, to avoid locked-in development pathways . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.E.6 Accelerating climate change and trends in exposure and vulnerability underscore the need for rapid action on the range of transformational approaches to expand the future set of effective, feasible and just solutions . Transformation towards climate resilient development is advanced most effectively when actors work in inclusive and enabling ways to reconcile divergent interests, values and worldviews, building on information and knowledge on climate risk and adaptation options derived from different knowledge systems . Taking action now provides the foundation for adaptation to current and future risks, for large-scale mitigation measures and for effective outcomes for both. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.E.6.1 Large-scale, transformational adaptation necessitates enabling improved approaches to governance and coordination across sectors and jurisdictions to avoid overwhelming current adaptive capacities and to avoid future maladaptive actions . Response options in one sector can become response risks that exacerbate impacts in other sectors. A deliberate shift from primarily technological adaptation strategies to those that additionally incorporate behavioural and institutional changes, adaptation finance, equity and environmental justice and that align policy with global sustainability goals will facilitate transformational adaptation . Application and efficacy testing of climate resilient development, or adaptation pathways, show promise for implementing transformational approaches , including expansion of ecosystem-based adaptation approaches. Climate information services that are demand driven and context specific, combined with climate change literacy, have the potential to improve adaptation responses . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
TS.E.6.2 Climate resilient development pathways depend on how contending societal interests, values and worldviews are reconciled through inclusive and participatory interactions between governance actors in these arenas of engagement . These interactions occur in many different arenas that represent the settings, places and spaces in which societal actors interact to influence the nature and course of development. For instance, Agenda 2030 highlights the importance of multi-level adaptation governance, including non- state actors from civil society and the private sector. This implies the need for wider arenas of engagement for diverse actors to collectively solve problems and to unlock the synergies between adaptation and mitigation and sustainable development . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
event that greenhouse gas mitigation efforts over- or underperform. In addition, decision makers should be aware of the financial risks associated with stranded assets, technology risks and the risks to social equity or ecosystem health. By acknowledging, assessing and managing such risks, actors will have a greater likelihood of achieving success in making development climate resilient. Opportunities exist to promote synergies between sustainable development, adaptation and mitigation, but trade-offs are likely unavoidable, and managing trade-offs and synergies will be important . Climate resilient development risks and opportunities vary by location with uncertainty about global mitigation effort and future climates relevant to local planning . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
appropriate enabling conditions . These enabling conditions include effective governance and information flow, policy frameworks that incentivise sustainability solutions, adequate financing for adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development, institutional capacity, science, technology and innovation, monitoring and evaluation of climate resilient development policies, programmes and practices and international cooperation. Investment in social and technological innovation could generate the knowledge and entrepreneurship needed to catalyse system transitions and their transfer. The implementation of policies that incentivise the deployment of low-carbon technologies and practices within specific sectors, such as energy, buildings and agriculture, could accelerate greenhouse gas mitigation and deployment of climate resilient infrastructure in both urban and rural areas. Civic engagement is an important element of building societal consensus and reducing barriers to action on adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
This supplementary material presents the various aggregated risk assessments applied in the WGII AR6. This includes the key risks identified by all the chapters and the way they can be clustered into Representative Key Risks , with a summary of the severity conditions for these RKRs across climate and development pathways, and the interactions among these risks . The assessment of the five Reasons for Concern , presented in the iconic 'burning embers', provides a complementary cross-cutting impact and risk assessment. This approach is described in Section TS.All.3, along with a comparison with the RKRs . The burning embers for the global and cross-cutting RFCs are complemented by similar depictions for specific regional and thematic concerns . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Regional and sectoral chapters of this report identified 127 key risks that could become severe under particular conditions of climate hazards, exposure and vulnerability . These key risks are assessed to be potentially severe, that is, relevant to the interpretation of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, along levels for warming, exposure/vulnerability and adaptation. Severity has been assessed looking at the magnitude of adverse consequences, the likelihood of adverse consequences, the temporal characteristics of the risk and the ability to respond to the risks. Key risks cover scales from the local to the global, are especially prominent in particular regions or systems and are particularly large for vulnerable sub-groups, especially low-income populations, and already at-risk ecosystems . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
services; living standards; human health; food security; water security; and peace and mobility . The assessment of these RKRs, which is presented in detail in Chapter 16, has also been used to organise the synthetic assessment of adaptation options in Chapter 17 and is integrated across various sections in the TS and SPM. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Some severe impacts are already occurring and will occur in many more systems before mid-century . Tropical and polar low-lying coastal human communities are experiencing severe impacts today , and abrupt ecological changes resulting from mass population-level mortality are already being observed following climate extreme events. Some systems will experience severe risks before the end of the century , for example critical infrastructure affected by extreme events . Food security for millions of people, particularly low-income populations, also faces significant risks with moderate to high warming or high vulnerability, with a growing challenge by 2050 in terms of providing nutritious and affordable diets . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Key risks increase the challenges in achieving global sustainability goals . The greatest challenges will be from risks to water , living standards , coastal socioecological systems and peace and human mobility . The most relevant goals are zero hunger , sustainable cities and communities , life below water , decent work and economic growth , and no poverty . Priority areas for regions are indicated by the intersection of hazards, risks and challenges, where, in the near term, challenges to SDGs indicate | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
The RFC framework communicates scientific understanding about accrual of risk in relation to varying levels of warming for five broad categories: risk associated with unique and threatened systems, extreme weather events, distribution of impacts, global aggregate impacts and large-scale singular events. The RFC framework was first developed during the Third Assessment Report along with a visual representation of these risks as 'burning embers' figures, and this assessment framework has been further developed and updated in subsequent IPCC reports including AR5. RFCs reflect risks aggregated globally that together inform the interpretation of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
The risk transition or 'ember' diagram illustrates the progression of socioecological risk from climate change as a function of global temperature change, taking into account the exposure and vulnerability of people and ecosystems, as assessed by literature-based expert judgement. The definitions of risk levels used to make the expert judgements are presented in Table TS.All.2 . Further details are provided in Section 16.6.3. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Since IPCC AR5, human influence on the Earth's climate has become unequivocal, increasingly apparent and widespread, reflected in both the growing scientific literature and in the perception and experiences of people worldwide . Current changes in the climate system and those expected in the future will increasingly have significant and deleterious impacts on human and natural systems. The impacts of climate change and extreme weather events have adversely affected, or caused the loss of ecosystems including terrestrial, freshwater, ocean and coastal ecosystems, including tropical coral reefs; reduced food security; contributed to migration and displacement; damaged livelihoods, health and security of people; and increased inequality. Climate change impacts are concurrent and interact with other significant societal changes that have become more salient since AR5, including a growing and urbanising global population; significant inequality and demands for social justice; rapid technological change; continuing poverty, land and water degradation, biodiversity loss; food insecurity; and a global pandemic. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Since AR5, climate action has grown in salience worldwide across all levels of government as well as among non-governmental organisations, small and large enterprises, and citizens . At the international level the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals , along with other targets and frameworks, such as the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, the Convention on Biological Diversity Aichi targets, the Addis Ababa Action Agenda for finance and the New Urban Agenda, provide overarching goals and policy context. These agreements also provide policy goals used by this IPCC Report to assess climate action across all levels of society. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
IPCC's assessments have grown and changed substantially over the last three decades. Compared to earlier IPCC assessments, this report emphasises a common risk-solution framing across all three Working Groups. This report focuses on solutions for risk reduction and adaptation; provides more integration across the natural and social sciences; applies a more comprehensive risk framework; assesses adaptation directly in the context of sectoral or regional risks; engages with different forms of knowledge, including Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge; and includes an increasing focus on equity and justice. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Adaptation plays a key role in reducing risks and vulnerability from climate change. Implementing adaptation and mitigation actions together with the SDGs helps to exploit synergies, reduce trade-offs and makes all three more effective. From a risk perspective, limiting atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations reduces climate-related hazards while adaptation and sustainable development reduce exposure and vulnerability to those hazards. Adaptation facilitates development, which is increasingly hindered by impacts and risks from climate change. Development facilitates adaptation by expanding the resources and capacity to reduce climate risks and vulnerability. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
The concepts of adaptation, vulnerability, resilience and risk provide overlapping, alternative entry points for the climate change challenge . Vulnerability is a component of risk, but also an important focus independently, improving understanding of the differential impacts of climate change on people of different gender, race, wealth, social status and other attributes. Vulnerability also provides an important link between climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Resilience, which can refer to either a process or outcome, encompasses not just the concept of maintaining essential function, identity and structure, but also maintaining a capacity for transformation. Such transformations bring forth questions of justice, power and politics. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Risks from climate change differ through space and time and cascade across and within regions and systems. The total risk in any location may thus differ from the sum of individual risks if these interactions, as well as risks from responses themselves, are not considered . The risks of climate change responses include the possibility of mitigation or adaptation responses not achieving their intended objectives or having trade-offs or adverse side effects for other societal objectives. Another core area of complexity in climate risk is the behaviour of systems, which includes multiple stressors unfolding together, cascading or compounding interactions within and across sectors and regions, and nonlinear responses and the potential for surprises. All of this is crucial for effective decision making and decision-support methods. The key risks assessed in this report become important in interaction with the cultures, values, ethics, identities, experiences and knowledge systems of affected communities and societies. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
and biotic responses) suggests that past climate changes have already caused substantial ecological, evolutionary and socioeconomic impacts . Many recent impacts are not detected, due to a shortage of monitoring and robust attribution analysis . Detection and attribution assessments inform risk assessment by demonstrating the sensitivity of a system to climate change, and they can inform loss and damage estimates including those involved in potential climate litigation cases. Robust detection and attribution methods now exist and play a significant role in increasing awareness and willingness to act among decision makers and the general population. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Narratives play an important role in communicating climate risks and motivating solutions. A narrative describes a chronological chain of events, often with a premise and conclusions. In the AR6, as in previous IPCC assessments, climate change scenarios and related narratives are central in the analysis, synthesis and communication of climate change impacts and of adaptation and mitigation responses. AR6 employs narratives to describe the assumptions, evolution and driving forces for the representative concentration pathways and shared socioeconomic pathways and links these to global warming levels as a complement to RCPs and SSPs for framing impacts . Narratives can also be enablers of transformation by communicating societal goals and the actions needed to achieve them | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
AR6 highlights adaptation solutions and the extent to which they are successful and adequate at reducing climate risk, increasing resilience and pursuing other climate-related societal goals. For adaptation, a solution is defined as an option which is effective, feasible and conforms to principles of justice. Effectiveness refers to the extent to which an action is anticipated or is observed to reduce climate-related risk. Feasibility refers to the extent to which a measure is considered possible and desirable in a particular context. A successful action is one observed to be effective, feasible and just. Adequacy refers to a set of solutions that together are sufficient to avoid dangerous, intolerable, or severe climate risks. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge can provide important understanding for acting effectively on climate risk and can help diversify knowledge that may enrich adaptation policy and practice . Indigenous Peoples have been faced with adaptation challenges for centuries and have developed strategies for resilience in changing environments that can enrich and strengthen current and future adaptation efforts. Valuing IK and LK is also important for recognition, a key component of climate justice. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
AR6 highlights three principles of climate justice: distributive justice, procedural justice and recognition. Distributive justice refers to the allocation of burdens and benefits among individuals, nations and generations. Procedural justice refers to who decides and participates in decision making. Recognition entails basic respect and robust engagement with and fair consideration of diverse cultures | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
and perspectives. This report considers all three principles in the assessment of adaptation options and evaluates the extent to which better outcomes are obtained by choosing just ones. Since potential trade-offs exist among the principles, adaptation assessments will in general involve normative judgements, as well as science-based evidence. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Concepts of justice and measures of well-being are increasingly used to evaluate the extent to which climate change adaptation is equitable and effective . AR6 employs evaluation frameworks based on both single and multi-criteria to assess adaptation effectiveness and consistency with principles of justice. Single criteria frameworks aggregate many attributes into a one number or ranking, often quantified using benefit-cost analysis or measures of social welfare. Existing decision processes often favour such single criteria, which also correlate well with many measures of social progress and sustainable development. Multi-criteria frameworks simultaneously report several different biophysical and socioeconomic attributes, which provides more information on potential trade-offs and synergies and can engage with emerging concepts of well-being. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
The concepts of enablers, catalysts and the solution space help AR6 assess ways to speed the implementation and expand the range of adaptation solutions. Many potential solutions have not yet been implemented, despite the gap between current and adequate levels of adaptation. Enablers enhance the feasibility of adaptation options and include governance, finance and knowledge. Catalysts accelerate and motivate the adaptation decision making process. The concept of solution space-defined as the space within which opportunities and constraints determine why, how, when and who adapts to climate risks-helps this in assessing how human choices and exogenous changes can expand and contract the set of effective, feasible and just solutions. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Effective governance, adaptation finance and nature-based solutions are important enablers for expanding the solutions space and reducing adaptation gaps . Actors at many scales and in many sectors are already adapting, and can take additional and more significant adaptation action. These actors include individuals and households, communities, governments at all levels, private sector businesses, non-governmental organisations, religious groups and social movements. Many forms of adaptation are likely to be more effective, cost-efficient and potentially also more equitable when organised collectively. Stronger governance and adaptation finance capabilities are usually associated with more ambitious adaptation plans and more effective implementation of such plans. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Monitoring and evaluation of adaptation refers to a broad range of activities necessary for tracking adaptation progress over time, improving adaptation effectiveness and successful iterative risk management. Monitoring usually refers to continuous information gathering, whereas evaluation denotes more comprehensive assessments of effectiveness and equity, often resulting in recommendations for decision makers. In some literatures, M&E refers solely to efforts undertaken after implementation. In | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
The concept of limits to adaptation is dynamic in terms of the temporal, spatial and contextual dimensions of climate change risks, impacts and response. Socioeconomic, technological, governance and institutional systems or policies can be changed or transformed in response to the different dimensions of adaptation limits to climate change and extreme events. Adaptation limits can be soft or hard. Soft adaptation limits occur when options may exist but are currently not available to avoid intolerable risks through adaptive actions. Hard adaptation limits occur when no adaptive actions are possible to avoid intolerable risks. The levels of GHG emissions reduction, adaptation and risk management measures are the key factors determining if and when adaptation limits are reached. When a limit is reached, then intolerable risks and impacts may occur and additional adaptations would be required. Transformational adaptation can allow a system to extend beyond its soft limits and prevent soft limits from becoming hard limits. The loss and damage associated with the future climate change impacts, beyond the limits to adaptation, is an area of increasing focus. However, it is yet to be fully developed in terms of assessment methods, including non-economic values and identifying means to avoid and reduce both economic and non-economic losses and damages. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Key concepts in this report provide a framework for assessing the urgency of climate change adaptation. Adaptation is urgent to the extent that soft adaptation limits are currently being approached or exceeded and that achieving levels of adaptation adequate to address these soft limits requires action at a speed and scale faster than that represented by current trends . In addition, adaptation is urgent to the extent that any needed expansion of the future solution space requires near-term strengthening and expansion of enablers, such as governance, finance and information. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
AR6 highlights the role of transformation in meeting the Paris Agreement, the SDGs and other policy goals. Transformation, and the related term transition, are pluralistic concepts, embracing the idea of major, fundamental changes in society or natural systems as opposed to changes that are minor, marginal or incremental. AR6 has a particular focus on transformational adaptation, which changes the fundamental attributes of a socioeconomic system in anticipation of climate change and its impacts. AR6 describes transitions in five systems: energy, land and ecosystems, urban and infrastructure, industrial and societal. In the past, transformations of such scale have been associated not only with technological and economic changes, but also with shifts in most aspects of society. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
solution space, overcome soft limits to adaptation, reduce residual risk to tolerable levels and achieve societal goals. If such a transformation is not pursued or is not successful and risk remains above intolerable levels, a forced transformation may occur that is less consistent with societal goals. The literature describes incremental and transformational change as linked processes. The transformational adaptation literature suggests shifts from incremental to transformational processes are made possible by knowledge and skills, as well adjustments to vision, agendas and coalitions achieved through monitoring and learning. The socio-ecological and sustainability transitions literature suggests that actors seeking deliberate transformation may take incremental steps that aim to induce societal tipping point behaviour in the near or longer term. Alternative pathways for pursuing deliberate transformations range from a focus on modernisation of sectors such as energy, agriculture and the use of natural resources to proposals for degrowth that intentionally aim to decrease both gross domestic product and coupled GHG emissions. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Transformation is understood as a collective action challenge among actors with both common and differing values interacting with a mix of competition and cooperation. Significant innovations often begin in niches or protected spaces, sometimes introduced by new entrants or outsiders. The drivers of transformation are multi- dimensional, involving social, cultural, economic, environmental, technical and political processes. The combination of these creates the potential for abrupt and systemic change, the stability of entrenched and interlocked power structures, and the importance of individual beliefs and behaviours. Decision frameworks that consider multiple objectives and multiple scenarios can avoid privileging some views over others and help multiple actors to identify resilient and equitable solutions to complex, deeply uncertain challenges. Nonetheless, common goals and narratives are both enablers of transformation and help align the activities of multiple, loosely co-ordinated actors. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
This report employs the climate resilient development concept to inform co-ordinated implementation of adaptation and mit- igation solutions to support sustainable development for all. As a transformation that emerges from the choices of many different actors, climate resilient development follows no single or preferred pathway and no single best combination of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development strategies. All pathways involve complex trade-offs and synergies among different actions. The climate resilient development concept helps assess the extent to which solutions cur- rently exist to meet societal goals or the extent to which an expanded solution space is required. The concept also helps assess the role of various actors, including governments, citizens, civil society, knowledge institutions, media, investors and businesses as well as the need for arenas of engagement in which they can interact. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Numerous additional significant climate-related changes have unfolded worldwide since the publication of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report in 2014 . Consistent with projections, multiple concurrent changes in the physical climate system have grown more salient, including increasing global temperatures, loss of ice volume, rising sea levels and changes in global precipitation patterns . The changes in the physical climate system, most notably more intensive extreme events, have adversely affected natural and human systems around the world. This has contributed to a loss and degradation of ecosystems, including tropical coral reefs; reduced water and food security; increased damage to infrastructure; additional mortality and morbidity; human migration and displacement; damaged livelihoods; increased mental health issues; and increased inequality. Since AR5, a growing literature attributes change in specific climate variables to observed damages to specific localised human and natural systems in many regions of the world . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Concurrently, since AR5, a growing share of people around the world perceive a changing climate, regard these changes as significant and consider climate action to be a matter of high urgency . A survey, representing over half the world's population, found that almost two-thirds of people across 50 countries view climate change as an emergency , compared to just over half across 23 countries in 2013 . The highest level of support for climate action is among small island developing states , followed by high-income countries , middle-income countries and, then, least developed countries . Notably, after mid-2018, global media showed a large increase number of mentions of 'global warming', 'climate change' and similar terms . The business community now consistently includes climate change, including 'climate action failure' as a major risk . In late 2019, protests calling for strengthened climate action reached an unprecedented level of over 6000 events in 185 countries, with a reported estimate of 7.6 million participants, largely led by the 'Fridays for Future' youth movement . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
population ; technology reshaping the workplace through automation and information dissemination through social media ; and increasing inequalities due to gender, poverty, age, race and ethnicity . Economic inequality grows within nations even as it has narrowed among them . International polycentric governance and non-state actors play an important role . In 2020 and 2021, a global pandemic dramatically affected the lives of most of the world's population, likely accelerating many of the changes already underway . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Since AR5, climate action has grown at all levels of governance as well as among non-governmental organisations, small and large enterprises, and citizens. Two international agreements-the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development- jointly provide overarching goals for climate action. The 2015 Paris Agreement frames direct local, national and private sector actions aligned with long-term goals addressing mitigation, adaptation and finance. For mitigation, the agreement calls for 'holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2ºC above pre-industrial levels', 'pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C' and 'reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions in the second half of this century' . For adaptation, the agreement calls for 'increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience' , as well as having a dedicated 'global goal on adaptation' . For finance, the agreement seeks to make 'financial flows consistent with a pathway towards low GHG emissions and climate resilient development'. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Risk Reduction , the finance-oriented Addis Ababa Action Agenda and the New Urban Agenda . For example, the SFDRR recognises some disasters as 'exacerbated by climate change and increasing in frequency and intensity, significantly progress towards sustainable development' . The Convention on Biological Diversity is one of the key international legal instruments for sustainable development for 'the conservation of biological diversity, the sustainable use of its components and the fair and equitable sharing of the benefits arising out of the utilisation of genetic resources' . The CBD and its Aichi targets recognises that biodiversity is affected by climate change, with negative consequences for human well- being, but biodiversity, through ecosystem services, contributes to both climate change mitigation and adaptation . There is concern that many of the proposed post-2020 biodiversity targets of the CBD may not be met due to climate change impacts . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Important synergies and trade-offs exist among adaptation and mitigation actions . Limiting atmospheric concentrations of GHGs reduces the extent of adaptation needed to keep risk within tolerable levels . From a global perspective, understanding adaptation and its limits can inform judgements about the best balance among levels of mitigation and adaptation. Such judgements underlie the mitigation goals of the Paris Agreement. From a more local perspective, there is a wide range of mitigation scenarios , | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
The IPCC WGII AR6 builds upon key findings of the IPCC AR5, three subsequent special reports and the simultaneous assessment of the IPCC WGI and WGIII AR6. The findings and assessment approaches adopted across these reports have implications for the point of departure in the WGII AR6. They include the strong recognition of the urgency for climate action, the enhanced focus on risk and the aim to connect the search for near-term climate solutions with longer-term transitions. Headline conclusions of the IPCC AR5 include the following, directly quoted : | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
At the time of the IPCC AR5, very few scientific studies relevant to the impacts of global warming of 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels were available. In 2018, the IPCC concluded a Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5℃ levels and related global GHG emission pathways, following an invitation expressed in the Decision text of the Paris Agreement . The report assessed available literature on global warming of 1.5℃ and on comparisons between global warming of 1.5℃ and 2℃ above pre-industrial levels. It also addressed possible pathways for achieving the ambitious goals of the Paris Agreement. Key findings from this report include the following, directly quoted : | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
· Over the last decades, global warming has led to widespread shrinking of the cryosphere and unabated ocean warming with an uptake of more than 90% of the excess heat in the climate system. Marine heatwaves have doubled in frequency since 1982 and the oceans acidify . Global mean sea level is rising, with acceleration in recent decades. Increases in tropical cyclone winds and rainfall exacerbate extreme sea level events and coastal hazards. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
. The Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets are projected to lose mass at an increasing rate throughout the 21st century and beyond. Projected ecosystem responses include losses of species habitat and diversity, and degradation of ecosystem functions. Warm-water corals are at high risk already and are projected to transition to very high risk even if global warming is limited to 1.5ºC. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
. Human use directly affects more than 70% of the global, ice-free land surface. Land also plays an important role in the climate system. Climate change has adversely impacted food security and terrestrial ecosystems as well as contributed to desertification and land degradation in many regions. Changes in land conditions, either from land use or climate change, affect global and regional climate. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
. Pathways with higher demand for food, feed, and water, more resource-intensive consumption and production, and more limited technological improvements in agriculture yields result in higher risks from water scarcity in drylands, land degradation, and food insecurity. Most of the response options assessed contribute positively to sustainable development and other societal goals. Sustainable land management, including sustainable forest management, can prevent and reduce land degradation, maintain land productivity, and sometimes reverse the adverse impacts of climate change on land degradation. It can also contribute to mitigation and adaptation. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Other assessment processes also inform the IPCC AR6. For example, a recent joint workshop between the Intergovernmental Science- Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services and IPCC, the first of its kind, made key observations relevant to the work of IPCC WGII AR6 . In this broad context, the workshop explored diverse facets of the interaction between climate and biodiversity, from current trends to the role and implementation of nature-based solutions and the sustainable development of human society. Key highlights of the workshop include the following, directly quoted from the workshop report: | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Adaptation and sustainable development are also interlinked . Adaptation facilitates development, which is hindered by impacts and risks from climate change. Development facilitates adaptation by expanding the resources and capacity available to manage climate risks. Viewed from a climate justice perspective, some argue that a more just society is more capable of successful adaptation, while others argue that only adaptation that results in a more just society can be judged successful . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Two concepts-adaptation gaps and limits to adaptation-help frame this report's assessment of the extent to which current adaptation efforts are adequate to meet societal goals. Adaptation gaps are defined as 'the difference between actually implemented adaptation and a societally set goal, determined largely by preferences related to tolerated climate change impacts and reflecting resource limitations and competing priorities' . Limits to adaptation describe the extent to which no plausible level of adaptation can meet societal goals . Within the limits, adaptation gaps can be closed by increased and more successful adaptation actions. Beyond the limits, only mitigation can close adaptation gaps. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Numerous climate-related impacts already cause severe damage in many places and are projected to increase in the future . Adaptation can reduce these risks, often significantly, but limits to adaptation have already been reached or are being approached in some sectors and regions . While natural systems worldwide are changing in response to climate change, many are not adapting sufficiently quickly to retain their resilience in the face of current and projected future climate change . For human systems, numerous lines of evidence suggest that in many regions and sectors current infrastructure, settlement patterns, policies, practices and institutions remain inadequate for current changes in climate conditions . Inadequate or insufficient adaptation to current conditions is called an adaptation deficit. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Knowledge about adaptation has significantly expanded since AR5 . While understanding regarding the extent of adaptation gaps remains limited, the available evidence suggests significant adaptation gaps exist . Many current adaptation efforts constitute adaptation planning, rather than implementation . Most current implementation efforts represent incremental as opposed to transformational adaptation despite the proximity to adaptation limits . Some current adaptation efforts are considered maladaptive because they increase some climate-related risks even if they reduce others . Gaps exist in key enablers of adaptation, such as finance . Given the long time scales involved with many adaptation actions and the potential to significantly reduce longer-term costs with near- term actions, closing many adaptation gaps requires actions over the next few years by governments, business, civil society and individuals at a scale and speed significantly faster than that represented by current trends. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
First, this AR6 assessment has an increased focus on risk- and solutions- frameworks. The risk framing can move beyond the limits of single best estimates or most-likely outcomes and include high-consequence outcomes for which probabilities are low or in some cases unknown . In this report, the risk framing for the first time spans all three Working Groups, includes risks from the responses to climate change, considers dynamic and cascading consequences , describes with more geographic detail risks to people and ecosystems, and assesses such risks over a range of scenarios . The focus on solutions encompasses the interconnections among climate responses, sustainable development, and transformation, and the implications for governance across scales within the public and private sectors . The assessment therefore includes climate-related decision making and risk management, climate resilient development pathways, implementation and evaluation of adaptation, and also limits to adaptation, and loss and damage . Specific focal areas reflect contexts increasingly important for the implementation of responses, such as cities . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Second, emphases on social justice and different forms of expertise have emerged . As climate change impacts and implemented responses increasingly occur, there is heightened awareness of the ways that climate responses interact with issues of justice and social progress. In this report, there is expanded attention to inequity in climate vulnerability and responses, the role of power and participation in processes of implementation, unequal and differential impacts, and climate justice. The historic focus on scientific literature has also been increasingly accompanied by attention to and incorporation of Indigenous knowledge , local knowledge and associated scholars . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
To support these three themes, this report assesses literature with an increasing diversity of topics and geographical areas covered. The diversity is encompassed through sectoral and regional chapters , as well as cross-chapter papers and boxes. The literature also increasingly evaluates the lived experiences of climate change-the physical changes underway, the impacts for people and ecosystems, the perceptions of the risks, and adaptation and mitigation responses planned and implemented. In particular, scientific capabilities to attribute individual extreme weather and climate events to GHG emissions have gone from hypothetical to standard and routine over the last three decades, and societal perceptions of these events and their impacts for people and ecosystems are now being studied as well . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
emphasise such integration, and the chapter teams in the present report integrate disciplinary perspectives and also science-policy interactions inherent in climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. There has been increasing real-time assessment of the assessment process itself, including interpersonal dynamics and how they shape key findings . Additionally, best practices are being adopted from applied decision and policy analysis, decision support and co-production, in order to increase assessment relevance and usability for decision making . Methods of integration in this report include systematic review, meta-analysis, multi-criteria integration and expert elicitation . The emphasis on knowledge for action has also included the role of public communication, stories and narratives within assessment and associated outreach . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
The concepts of risk and risk management have in recent years been central to climate change research and practice related to impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. The concepts provide a framework for understanding climate change and its increasingly severe, interconnected and irreversible impacts. They support the implementation of solutions that reduce adverse consequences, pursue opportunities and enable beneficial outcomes for people, economies and nature . All three AR6 Working Groups now apply a common risk framework . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Risk framing is increasingly used to assess climate change impacts on human and natural systems . A risk framing reflects key dimensions of the climate challenge. These features include the changing likelihoods of many different outcomes , uncertainties that will persist, and different and contested values, priorities and goals . The IPCC AR6 and associated special reports apply a broad definition of risk. WGI Cross-Chapter Box 1.3. WGI uses the Climatic Impact Driver terminology, rather than hazard, to neutrally assess changing climatic conditions that are relevant to human and natural systems, leaving the determination of positive/negative consequences and resulting impacts and risks for WGIl assessment . In most cases, throughout this WGII report, the term 'risk' refers to the risks of climate change impacts. The full assessment, however, incorporates all relevant risks from climate change impacts and responses. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
The broad definition of risk involves quantitative and integrative understandings of risk . Risk is sometimes defined as the probability of a consequence, multiplied by the magnitude of that consequence, acknowledging both the diversity of possible consequences and the relevance of values. Yet it also applies in circumstances where probabilities cannot be fully quantified . For example, in some cases the probability and magnitude of consequences may be more uncertain, dependent on complex dimensions of the climate or the vulnerability of different communities . The determinants of risk vary dynamically through space and time . They interact, compound, and cascade . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Risk framing supports connections with solutions . First, risk framing connects the present with the future. . For instance, whether wildfire or drought, recent experiences have demonstrated limits to current response capacities relevant to future preparedness . Second, risk framing emphasises that uncertainties and complex interactions are integral to decision making . The uncertainties include high-impact, low- probability outcomes and deep uncertainties for which core processes are not understood and meaningful probabilities cannot be applied (Adler et al., 2016; see also Section 17.2.1; Cross-Chapter Box DEEP in Chapter 17; Chapter 7 in SRCCL, IPCC, 2019a; Cross-Chapter Box 5 | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Iterative risk management emphasises that anticipating and responding to climate change does not consist of a single set of judgements at a single point in time, but rather an 'ongoing cycle of assessment, action, reassessment, learning and response . It is consistent with most approaches applied for implementing adaptation . For instance, the Paris Agreement is organised as a polycentric process of iterative risk management in which national governments pledge to take specific actions. Those actions are monitored and assessed, and nations asked to update their pledges in light of that assessment. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Vulnerability is a component of risk, but also an important focus independently. Vulnerability in this report is defined as the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. It encompasses a variety of concepts and elements, including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt . Over the past several decades, approaches to analysing and assessing vulnerability have evolved. An early emphasis on top- down, biophysical evaluation of vulnerability included-and often started with-exposure to climate hazards in assessing vulnerability. From this starting point, attention to bottom-up, social and contextual determinants of vulnerability, which often differ, has emerged, although this approach is incompletely applied or integrated across contexts . Vulnerability is now widely understood to differ within communities and across societies, also changing through time . In the WGII AR6, assessment of the vulnerability of people and ecosystems encompasses the differing approaches that exist within the literature, both critiquing and harmonising them based on available evidence. In this context, exposure is defined as the presence of people; livelihoods; species or ecosystems; environmental functions, services, and resources; infrastructure; or economic, social, or cultural assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected . Potentially affected places and settings can be defined geographically, as well as more dynamically, for example through transmission or interconnections through markets or flows of people. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction communities . Building on the scientific literature and adaptation and risk reduction practice, the IPCC Special Report on Extremes resulted in several major IPCC advances that continue through the present report, including emphasis on risk and climate-related extremes and re-conceptualisation of vulnerability to encompass both social and biophysical orientations . Linking disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation can also be an important basis for discussion in climate negotiations on the allocation of funds needed for tackling climate change, especially in developing countries and SIDS . The integration of disaster risk management and climate change adaptation in the IPCC AR6 is seen, for example, in the assessment of key risks within and across sectors and regions, along with global-scale reasons for concern, which is attuned to extreme events and disasters . Additionally, the assessment of adaptation has prioritised these interconnections , as have literature and practice especially in the context of sustainable development . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Adaptation in this report is defined, in human systems, as the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects, in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In natural systems, adaptation is the process of adjustment to actual climate and its effects; human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects . Adaptation planning in human systems generally entails a process of iterative risk management. Different types of adaptation have been distinguished, including anticipatory versus reactive, autonomous versus planned and incremental versus transformational adaptation . Adaptation is often seen as having five general stages: awareness, assessment, planning, implementation and M&E . Government, non-government and private sector actors have adopted a wide variety of specific approaches to adaptation that, to varying degrees, address these five general stages. Adaptation in natural systems includes 'autonomous' adjustments through ecological and evolutionary processes. It also involves the use of nature through ecosystem-based adaptation. The role of species, biodiversity and ecosystems in such adaptation options can range from the rehabilitation or restoration of ecosystems to hybrid combinations of 'green and grey' infrastructure . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
The IPCC assessment of adaptation has evolved through time. The WGII AR4 included one chapter dedicated to adaptation, the WGII AR5 expanded to four and the WGII AR6 mainstreams adaptation comprehensively throughout the report. Adaptation science is rapidly evolving, including evaluation of adaptation effectiveness, feasibility, implementation and maladaptation, although major knowledge gaps persist in modelling and analysis . The WGII AR6 | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Since AR5, more adaptation has progressed and the focus of activity has expanded to include social, institutional and governance dimensions beyond engineered and technical options and to decision processes beyond technocratic, linear framings . Adaptation includes increasing attention to implementation, M&E and learning through time, not just planning processes . On the one hand, an important advance has been recognition of generalised capacities, such as resources and knowledge, necessary for the feasibility of effective adaptation. Adaptation thereby strongly overlaps with risk management and with the building of resilience and sustainable development . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Resilience in this report is defined as the capacity of social, economic and environmental systems to cope with a hazardous event or trend or disturbance, responding or reorganising in ways that maintain their essential function, identity and structure, while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning and transformation . Resilience is an entry point commonly used, although under a wide spectrum of meanings . Resilience as a system trait overlaps with concepts of vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and thereby risk. Resilience as a strategy overlaps with risk management, adaptation and also transformation . Implemented adaptation is often organised around resilience as bouncing back and returning to a previous state after a disturbance . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
In much of the literature, resilience encompasses not just maintaining essential function, identity and structure, but also maintaining a capacity for adaptation, learning and transformation. Since the earliest framings of resilience around stability and persistence, ecology and allied fields have come to recognise that while systems are often persistent in the face of disturbance, disturbance also creates opportunity for transformation and the emergence of new pathways . Across this literature, disturbance is framed as outside the system in question, for which the time frames and spatial scales of disturbances, impacts and responses are central to outcomes . Endogenous processes of transformation are | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |
Often, development and adaptation communities of practice default to persistence and stability in their use of resilience . Such a framing aligns resilience with a long-standing but increasingly questioned belief that sustainable development can be achieved through incremental adjustments in behaviour and advances in technology that allow for the persistence of existing socioeconomic and socio-ecological arrangements . However, the literature increasingly suggests that the achievement of sustainable development will require transformative change in socio-ecological systems at scales ranging from the community to the globe. The concept of climate resilient development, initially introduced in AR5 and now a key focus in this report , engages with such transformations and the associated questions of justice, power and politics as shaped by internal, endogenous social factors and their interactions with other drivers of change . | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf |