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This research was conducted in a significant agricultural region to gauge farmers' knowledge of climate change adaption strategies. We employed a semi-structured questionnaire based on the literature; it was broken up into sections, and used certain statistical techniques (PLS-SEM) to examine the results. Farmers who had sufficient assets and resources thought they were safer and could withstand the adverse effects of climate change. A total of 900 completed questionnaires were gathered to investigate the link between the control, moderator, and DV variables in the future. As a consequence, the PLS-SEM path analysis findings showed that our model is fit. PLS-SEM direct path analysis revealed AM >FACC, UA- >FACC, SA- >FACC, FS- >FACC, PR- >FACC, and SI- >FACC are significant. The established hypotheses H1-H6 are strengthened by these findings. We also examined the respondents' ages and genders to use as controls; whereas gender showed no correlation with FACC, there was a strong link between age and the dependent variable. There is no statistically significant correlation between gender and climate change awareness, but older people tend to have a broader understanding of the topic and its consequences. Education significantly moderates the relationship of farmer's awareness (climate change) associated with AM, UA, SA, FS, PR, and SI. depicts the moderation role of education on the relationship between AM*Education->FACC, UA*Education->FACC, SA*Education- >FACC, FS*Education- >FACC, PR*Education- >FACC, and SI*Education- >FACC. H2a and H5a in this study showed significant correlations with education as a moderator; however, H1a, H3a, H4, and H6a did not demonstrate any moderator relationships. There is a medium to strong correlation between various factors, and the correlation values of a few chosen variables are significant when compared to all other variables in the current study. Highly significant correlations were found between PR, SA, SI, and UA with FACC. Governmental policies and effective monitoring systems will be developed as a result of the research to enable integrated and sustainable water development.

Sohail, MT

A PLS-SEM approach to determine farmers' awareness about climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies: pathway toward sustainable environment and agricultural productivity

Environmental Science And Pollution Research

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-23471-1

The Inupiat of Arctic Alaska identify themselves as the People of the Whales. The flesh of the bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) is high in vitamins and other components that traditionally sustained human physiology in a climate that is unsuitable for agriculture. Not surprisingly, the People of the Whales depend on the bowhead for sustenance and cultural meaning. The bowhead remains central to Inupiat life and culture through the hunting process, the communal distribution of meat and other body parts, and associated ceremonials and other events to sustain cultural well-being, which I call the Inupiat whaling cycle. For this study, I coined the term cetaceousness as a hybrid of cetaceous and consciousness, which links human awareness with cetaceans or whales. I use this term to refer to human-whale interactions at all levels. Particularly in Alaska, cetaceousness is a social and emotional process for the Inupiat to communicate with the whales. Based on my ethnographic fieldwork in Barrow and Point Hope, Alaska, from 2004 through 2007, this study reveals how collective uncertainty about the environment is expressed and managed in Inupiat practices and, by extension, how deeply global warming penetrates the cultural core of their society. To do so, I illustrate different aspects of Inupiat-bowhead whale relationships or the ways peoplemake whales a central feature of their lives. By influencing the bowhead harvest and the Inupiat homeland, climate change increases environmental uncertainties that both threaten and intensify human emotions tied to identity. This emotional intensity is revealed in the prevalence of traditional and newly invented whale-related events and performances, the number of people involved, the frequency of their involvement, and the verve or feelings with which they participate. Thus, this study investigates how collective uncertainty about the future of the environment would be expressed and managed in Inupiat practices and, by extension, how deeply climate change penetrates the cultural core of their society. My findings demonstrate how the Inupiat retain and strengthen their cultural identity to survive unexpected difficulties with an unpredictable environment by reinforcing their relationship with the whales.

Sakakibara, C

Kiavallakkikput Agviq (Into the Whaling Cycle): Cetaceousness and Climate Change Among the Inupiat of Arctic Alaska

Annals Of The Association Of American Geographers

https://doi.org/10.1080/00045608.2010.500561

Urban development increases flood risk in cities due to local changes in hydrological and hydrometeorological conditions that increase flood hazard, as well as to urban concentrations that increase the vulnerability. The relationship between the increasing urban runoff and flooding due to increased imperviousness is better perceived than that between the cyclic impact of urban growth and the urban rainfall via microclimatic changes. The large-scale, global impacts due to climate variability and change could compound these risks. We present the case of a typical third world city - Can Tho (the biggest city in Mekong River Delta, Vietnam) - faced with multiple future challenges, namely: (i) the likely effect of climate change-driven sea level rise, (ii) an expected increase of river runoff due to climate change as estimated by the Vietnamese government, (iii) increased urban runoff driven by imperviousness, and (iv) enhancement of extreme rainfall due to urban growth-driven, microclimatic change (urban heat islands). A set of model simulations were used to construct future scenarios, combining these influences. Urban growth of the city was projected up to year 2100 based on historical growth patterns, using a land use simulation model (Dinamica EGO). A dynamic limited-area atmospheric model (WRF), coupled with a detailed land surface model with vegetation parameterization (Noah LSM), was employed in controlled numerical experiments to estimate the anticipated changes in extreme rainfall patterns due to urban heat island effect. Finally, a 1-D/2-D coupled urban-drainage/flooding model (SWMM-Brezo) was used to simulate storm-sewer surcharge and surface inundation to establish the increase in the flood hazard resulting from the changes. The results show that under the combined scenario of significant change in river level (due to climate-driven sea level rise and increase of flow in the Mekong) and business as usual urbanization, the flooding of Can Tho could increase significantly. The worst case may occur if a sea level rise of 100 cm and the flow from upstream happen together with high-development scenarios. The relative contribution of causes of flooding are significantly different at various locations; therefore, detailed research on adaptation are necessary for future investments to be effective.

Huong, HTL; Pathirana, A

Urbanization and climate change impacts on future urban flooding in Can Tho city, Vietnam

Hydrology And Earth System Sciences

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-379-2013

The Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts (WIM) was established in 2013, and its Executive Committee (ExCom) is developing a new five-year workplan. Seizing this opportune moment to assess institutional progress on the issue of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) we address two research questions: (1) Has the ExCom delivered on its workplans to date, and (2) how has the ExCom's progress varied across thematic areas? Drawing on public documentary sources, we assess the effectiveness and timeliness of the delivery of activities across five thematic areas: slow onset events; non-economic losses; comprehensive risk management approaches; human mobility; and finance, action and support. We find that there has been progress across the thematic areas, but that it has varied in pace. Delays are associated with activities from the two-year workplan being moved into the first five-year workplan or being devolved to the more recently established expert groups. Our results also show that decisions from the Conference of the Parties (COP) or the COP serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA) have played a critical role in accelerating specific aspects of the ExCom's work. Finally, we note that the ExCom is increasingly relying on its expert groups and their members to deliver many activities. This research advances our understanding of the nature and pace of progress on this issue, and raises new questions about the politics of global climate policy implementation. KEY POLICY INSIGHTS The WIM ExCom's workplans are characterized by broad goals and are ambiguous about start dates and deadlines. To enhance accountability, future workplans would benefit from clearly defined objectives, outcomes, and timelines. The workplans do not seem to constitute strong commitments: Parties make use of COP/CMA decisions to strengthen the workplans by mandating specific activities or deadlines, adding new activities and prioritizing among existing ones. The politics of implementation merits greater attention: wider political dynamics around loss and damage shape the pace of the ExCom's supposedly technical work. One example is the delayed establishment of the expert group on action and support.

Johansson, A; Calliari, E; Walker-Crawford, N; Hartz, F; McQuistan, C; Vanhala, L

Evaluating progress on loss and damage: an assessment of the Executive Committee of the Warsaw International Mechanism under the UNFCCC

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2022.2112935

Dynamic interactions between and within the biogeophysical and human environments lead to the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food, resulting in food systems that underpin food security. Food systems encompass food availability (production, distribution and exchange), food access (affordability, allocation and preference) and food utilization (nutritional and societal values and safety), so that food security is, therefore, diminished when food systems are stressed. Such stresses may be induced by a range of factors in addition to climate change and/or other agents of environmental change (e.g. conflict, HIV/AIDS) and may be particularly severe when these factors act in combination. Urbanization and globalization are causing rapid changes to food systems. Climate change may affect food systems in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop production (e.g. changes in rainfall leading to drought or flooding, or warmer or cooler temperatures leading to changes in the length of growing season), to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure. The relative importance of climate change for food security differs between regions. For example, in southern Africa, climate is among the most frequently cited drivers of food insecurity because it acts both as an underlying, ongoing issue and as a short-lived shock. The low ability to cope with shocks and to mitigate long-term stresses means that coping strategies that might be available in other regions are unavailable or inappropriate. In other regions, though, such as parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plain of India, other drivers, such as labour issues and the availability and quality of ground water for irrigation, rank higher than the direct effects of climate change as factors influencing food security. Because of the multiple socio-economic and bio-physical factors affecting food systems and hence food security, the capacity to adapt food systems to reduce their vulnerability to climate change is not uniform. Improved systems of food production, food distribution and economic access may all contribute to food systems adapted to cope with climate change, but in adopting such changes it will be important to ensure that they contribute to sustainability. Agriculture is a major contributor of the greenhouse gases methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), so that regionally derived policies promoting adapted food systems need to mitigate further climate change.

Gregory, PJ; Ingram, JSI; Brklacich, M

Climate change and food security.

Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society B-Biological Sciences

https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2005.1745

Agriculture-based livelihoods, dominant in rural areas of developing countries, have been facing the challenges to cope up with climate change and extreme climatic events. Therefore, livelihood analysis along with vulnerability to climate change is an important aspect to address the climate change issues. Present research was contemplated to assess the livelihood status of dominant farm livelihood groups and their vulnerability in both coastal and non-coastal ecosystems of Odisha, an Indian state that suffers from climate-induced natural disasters. It also aimed to delineate livelihood assets determining climatic vulnerability of farm households. Sustainable livelihood framework was followed in analysing differential level of physical, social, human, financial and natural assets covering a random sample of 200 farm households representing three dominant farm livelihood groups, viz. farmers cultivating crops, rearing livestock and farmers occupied with both crop + livestock farming. The farmers under study were the beneficiaries of national innovations in climate-resilient agriculture programme launched by Indian council of agricultural research since 2011. Both crop and livestock farmers belonged to similar level of livelihood with no significant differences. Farmers engaged in crop + livestock farming had overall livelihood status at above average level and social assets contributing highest to it. However, farmers engaged in crop + livestock farming significantly differed from both crop and livestock farmers with livelihood status index values of 51.73 and 62.72 in coastal and non-coastal districts, respectively. The livelihood indicators delineated as determinants of vulnerability of farm households to climate change would help in climate policy advocacy regarding institutional innovations. Climate smart technological and institutional innovations, partnership between the stakeholders and diversified livelihood options provide farm households better resilience to climate change as reflected from lower vulnerability index values in coastal regions. This calls for policy advocacy to designing and deploying climate smart socio-technical innovations bundling in terms of both technological and institutional innovations through good partnership to provide farm households diversified livelihood options and better insulation against the vulnerability to climate change in a specific agro-ecosystem. Government support in terms of financial assistance, subsidies, insurance, extension advisories and adequate institutional infrastructure would enable farmers to adopting climate smart agriculture innovations, building sustainable livelihoods and improving resilience to climate change impacts.

Das, U; Ansari, MA; Ghosh, S

Measures of livelihoods and their effect on vulnerability of farmers to climate change: evidence from coastal and non-coastal regions in India

Environment Development And Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-02911-z

Disastrous floods in the twin cities of Nogales, Arizona, USA, and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico (collectively referred to as Ambos Nogales) occur annually in response to monsoonal summer rains. Flood-related hazards include property damage, impairment to sewage systems, sewage discharge, water contamination, erosion, and loss of life. Flood risk, particularly in Nogales, Sonora, is amplified by informal, squatter settlements in the watershed floodplain and associated development and infrastructure. The expected increase in precipitation intensity, resulting from climate change, poses further risk to flooding therein. We explore binational community perceptions of flooding, preferences for watershed management, and potential actions to address flooding and increase socio-ecological resilience in Ambos Nogales using standardized questionnaires and interviews to collect data about people and their preferences. We conducted 25 semi-structured interviews with local subject matter experts and gathered survey responses from community members in Ambos Nogales. Though survey response was limited, expected frequencies were high enough to conduct Chi-squared tests of independence to test for statistically significant relationships between survey variables. Results showed that respondents with previous experience with flooding corresponded with their level of concern about future floods. Additionally, respondents perceived greater flood-related risks from traveling across town and damage to vehicles than from inundation or damages to their homes or neighborhoods. Binationally, women respondents felt less prepared for future floods than men. On both sides of the border, community members and local experts agreed that Ambos Nogales lacks adequate preparation for future floods. To increase preparedness, they recommended flood risk education and awareness campaigns, implementation of green infrastructure, additional stormwater infrastructure (such as drainage systems), enhanced flood early warning systems, and reduction of flood flows through regulations to reduce the expansion of hard surfaces. This study contributes systematic collection of information about flood risk perceptions across an international border, including novel data regarding risks related to climate change and gender-based assessments of flood risk. Our finding of commonalities across both border communities, in perceptions of flood risk and in the types of risk reduction solutions recommended by community members, provides clear directions for flood risk education, outreach, and preparedness, as well as measures to enhance cross-border cooperation.

Freimund, CA; Garfin, GM; Norman, LM; Fisher, LA; Buizer, JL

Flood resilience in paired US-Mexico border cities: a study of binational risk perceptions

Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05225-x

Increasingly, climate researchers are pressured to generate products and tools from their research that support informed decision-making for increased social and environmental resilience. Despite the goal of these tools to integrate climate science into decision-making, little follow-up study is conducted after climate resilience tools are released to understand their effectiveness or application. It is important as limited resources across federal, state, local, and private sectors are invested in the development of climate resilience tools to understand their efficacy at achieving their intended purpose(s). This study leveraged Gulf TREE, a climate resilience tool released in 2018, to assess diffusion and adoption by intended users for intended purposes. Strategic efforts to enhance Gulf TREE via stakeholder engagement during development and positive evaluations prior to tool release, suggested there would be a high rate of adoption across all potential end-users; however, an end-user's intention to use a tool does not guarantee implementation. To expand the body of knowledge around climate resilience tool development, diffusion, and adoption, the authors explored the following research objectives: 1) Assess if endusers are adopting Gulf TREE; 2) Assess if end-users are adopting Gulf TREE for the intended purpose of finding climate change resilience tools; 3) Assess if end-users from different stakeholder categories are adopting Gulf TREE similarly. The study successfully determined that the climate resilience tool, Gulf TREE, was being adopted for its intended purposes. There were not sufficient data for statistical comparisons of use between stakeholder categories; however, general trends provided some indication of different stakeholder types utilizing Gulf TREE with different frequencies and for different purposes. Further, the study identified variability among sectors for how Gulf TREE was integrated into their existing suite of tools, with federal government and Sea Grant stakeholders using Gulf TREE as their primary resource versus academia and non-profit who appeared to have alternatives on which they continued to rely. Finally, this study identified that usability and usefulness may not be good indicators of tool adoption. This study expands the limited peer-reviewed assessments of a climate resilience tool's use. Continuing to develop this body of knowledge will allow for a better understanding of what constitutes a successful or effective climate resilience tool, how to improve current and future climate resilience tools, and how to best utilize limited resources when attempting to integrate climate science into decision-making.

Collini, RC; Heming, MC; Mohrman, CF; Daigle, MT; Fulford, CA; Lowry, CLG; Hanisko, MD; Mikulencak, S; Price, R; Sempier, TT; Shepard, C; Underwood, WV; Woodrey, MS; Denny, MD; Sparks, E

Understanding end-user adoption of an online climate resilience tool

Environmental Science & Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2021.06.022

Institution-oriented, top-down and community-oriented, bottom-up stakeholder approaches are evaluated for their ability to enable or constrain the implementation of adaptation in developing nations. A systematic review approach is used evaluate the project performance of 18 adaptation projects by three of the Global Environment Facility's (GEF) adaptation programmes (the Strategic Priority for Adaptation (SPA), the Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF), and the National Adaptation Programs of Action (NAPA)) according to effectiveness, efficiency, equity, legitimacy, flexibility, sustainability, and replicability. The ten SPA projects reviewed performed highest overall, especially with regards to efficiency, legitimacy, and replicability. The five SCCF projects performed the highest in equity, flexibility, and sustainability, and the three NAPA-related projects were the highest-performing projects with regards to effectiveness. A comparison of top-down and bottom-up approaches revealed that community stakeholder engagement in project design and implementation led to higher effectiveness, efficiency, equity, flexibility, legitimacy, sustainability, and replicability. Although low institutional capacity constrained both project success and effective community participation, projects that hired international staff to assist in implementation experienced higher overall performance. These case studies also illustrate how participatory methods can fail to genuinely empower or involve communities in adaptation interventions in both top-down and bottom-up approaches. It is thus crucial to carefully consider stakeholder engagement strategies in adaptation interventions.Policy relevanceWhile adaptation is now firmly on the policy and research agenda, actual interventions to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience remain in their infancy, and there is limited information on the factors that influence the successful implementation of adaptation in developing areas. Engaging stakeholders in assessing vulnerability and implementing adaptation interventions is widely regarded to be an important factor for adaptation implementation and success. However, no study has evaluated the effects of stakeholder engagement in the actual implementation of adaptation initiatives. Effective stakeholder engagement is challenging, especially in a developing nation setting, due to high levels of poverty, inadequate knowledge on adaptation options, weak institutions, and competing interests to address more immediate problems related to poverty and underdevelopment. In this context, this article documents and characterizes stakeholder engagement in adaptation interventions supported through the GEF, examining how top-down or bottom-up stakeholder approaches enable or constrain project performance.

Sherman, MH; Ford, J

Stakeholder engagement in adaptation interventions: an evaluation of projects in developing nations

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2014.859501

Coastal areas are already facing various risks due to increasing climate-related hazards that are likely to amplify with changing climate and make the households living in these areas even more vulnerable in terms of livelihoods and living conditions. This study attempted to evaluate vulnerability mapping of the coastal areas due to climate change using an integrative external and internal framework from three dimensions at the household level: exposure (E) to coastal hazards, sensitivity (S) due to demographic, socio-economic and structural characteristics and adaptive capacity (AC) relating to available assets and adaptive behaviour to cope with climate change impacts. Primary data on relevant indicators for assessing vulnerability were collected from ten historically eroded critical coastal areas along Selangor coastline, Malaysia. Using a pre-tested questionnaire, face-to-face interviews were conducted with 1050 randomly selected households. The collected data were used to estimate a composite vulnerability index (VI) from E, S, and AC indices. The vulnerability was classified according to four categories (low, moderate, high, very high) based on quarterly percentile distribution to evaluate the status. The results showed that about 96% of households had moderate exposure, and 4% had high exposure to climate change. All of the households exhibited moderate sensitivity. Low adaptive capacity was observed in 76% of households, moderate adaptive capacity in 17% and high adaptive capacity in 7%. Composite VI indicated that eight coastal areas (84% of households) are highly vulnerable, and two coastal areas (16%) are moderately vulnerable to climate change. The high vulnerability was attributed to increased exposure to shoreline erosion, high-risk perception, limited income, weak housing structures and lack of financial capital. The variation in exposure, socio-economic characteristics and available capitals resulted in different degrees of vulnerability in Selangor coastal areas indicating the diversified need for proactive adaptation planning at the local level. It is recommended that an appropriate mix of equitable community-based adaptations that adequately address the needs of the most vulnerable, focusing on poverty reduction, financial incentives and livelihood resilience and climate policies based on equity and justice, cultural and societal values are implemented to contribute to rural coastal households' resilience. This study is limited by the selective indicators of the external household vulnerability and subjective range of vulnerability classification.

Ehsan, S; Begum, RA; Maulud, KNA

Household external vulnerability due to climate change in Selangor coast of Malaysia

Climate Risk Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2022.100408

The nature of various ecologies partly determines how vulnerable regions and localities are to climate change. In developing countries, the low level of technological innovations required to adapt effectively and high reliance on nature for livelihood make certain areas more vulnerable than others. The study investigates the vulnerabilities of the three major ecological zones (Lowland rainforest, Freshwater Swamp, and Mangrove Swamp) in Delta State of the Niger Delta Region to climate change. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to analyze exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicators. Temperature and rainfall data used as the indicators for exposure were downloaded from NASA's website and UCI CHRS's data portal respectively and spanned from the year 1981 to 2019 for temperature and 2000 to 2019 for rainfall. PCA for sensitivity and adaptive capacity was carried out using thirty (30) sensitivity indicators and thirteen (13) adaptive capacity indicators, which were derived from the administration of 4,000 copies of questionnaire to rural residents of 10 selected Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Delta State. These were used to generate vulnerability scores (Z-scores), which served as measures of vulnerability, for the components - exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The results showed that Warri North Local Government Area and Warri Southwest Local Government Area (both located in the Mangrove Swamp ecology) were the most vulnerable in terms of temperature, with Z-Scores of 3.096 and 2.681 respectively. In terms of rainfall, the results indicated that most LGAs located in the Freshwater Swamp were the most exposed to increased rainfall. In terms of sensitivity, Burutu and Patani LGAs located in the Mangrove Swamp and Ndokwa East LGA located in the Freshwater Swamp were the most sensitive to climate change. Burutu and Patani LGAs (which are both in the Mangrove Swamp) had the highest vulnerability based on low adaptive capacity. Overall, Patani and Burutu LGAs (both in the Mangrove Swamp ecological zone) were the most vulnerable to climate change. The study recommends that climate change interventions be delivered across communities in the Niger-Delta Region based on variations of the indicators of vulnerability.

Balogun, VS; Onokerhoraye, AG

Climate change vulnerability mapping across ecological zones in Delta State, Niger Delta Region of Nigeria

Climate Services

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100304

Background Agriculture represents the mainstay of African economies and livestock products are essential to the human population's nutritional needs. However, in many developing countries, including Ghana, livestock production fails to meet demand due to population growth and negative effects of climate change. One of the challenges to production is livestock loss affecting farmers. However, despite stressful events experienced, livestock farmers' mental health is poorly documented. This study aims to identify the root causes of livestock losses and their influence on pastoralists' mental health. Methods We conducted a mixed methods study in two districts in the Northern and Southern Belts of Ghana. Using the Depression Anxiety and Stress Scale-21 and guided interviews, we collected quantitative and qualitative data from 287 livestock farmers and 24 key-informants respectively. Mental health scores were categorized using standard guidelines. We evaluated the factors that explained variations in mental wellbeing using general linear models (alpha = 0.05). Results About 85% (240/287) of the livestock farmers lost cattle within 1 year. Of these, 91% lost cattle to animal diseases, 50% to theft and 27% to pasture shortages. Qualitative findings reveal that due to poor access to veterinary services, farmers treat livestock diseases themselves with drugs from unregulated sources and often sell diseased cows for meat to recover losses. Findings showed that 60% of livestock farmers had poor mental health. Of those, 72% were depressed, 66% anxious and 59% stressed. Mental wellbeing was negatively associated with the number of adverse events experienced, proportion of livestock lost to most of the major loss factors, emotional attachment to livestock and self-reported physical illnesses in farmers, but positively associated with increasing herd size [F (8,278) = 14.18, p < 0.001, R-2 = 0.29]. Conclusions Livestock diseases are the leading cause of losses to livestock farmers, whose mental wellbeing is negatively affected by these losses. Although an adaptive strategy by farmers to compensate for poor veterinary services, the arbitrary use of veterinary drugs and sale of diseased cattle pose health risks to the public. Further research to evaluate the performance of veterinary services in Ghana, mental health problems and risk to human health due to potential high-risk meat entering the food chain, is needed.

Nuvey, FS; Kreppel, K; Nortey, PA; Addo-Lartey, AA; Sarfo, B; Fokou, G; Ameme, D; Kenu, E; Sackey, SO; Addo, KK; Afari, E; Chibanda, D; Bonfoh, B

Poor mental health of livestock farmers in Africa: a mixed methods case study from Ghana

Bmc Public Health

https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-020-08949-2

Climate change affects crop production by distorting the indestructible productive power of the land. The objective of this study is to examine the economic impacts of climate change on net crop income in Nile Basin Ethiopia using a Ricardian fixed effect approach employing the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) household survey data for Ethiopia in 2015 and 2016. The survey samples were obtained through a three-stage stratified sampling technique from the five regions (Amhara, Tigray, Benishangul Gumuz, Oromia, and Southern Nation Nationality and People (SNNP) along the Nile basin Ethiopia. There are only 12-14% female household heads while there are 80-86% male households in the regions under study. In the regions, more than half of (64%) the household heads are illiterate and almost only one-tenth of them (12%) had received remittance from abroad from their relatives or children. Crop variety adoption rate is minimal, adopted by the 31% of farmers. Only 30% of the surveyed farmers mentioned that they planted their crop seeds in row whereas the rest 70% had not applied this method. The regression results from the fixed effect least square dummy variable model showed that literacy, household size, remittance, asset value, and total land holdings have significant and positive impacts on the net crop income per hectare. The regional dummy variables estimate indicated that all the regions are negatively affected by climate change at varying levels. Strategies to climate change adaptation have significant and positive contributions in leveraging the damaging effects of climate change. The results also showed that increased winter and summer temperature and rainfall increase net crop income per hectare. The estimated coefficient of the interaction term of spring temperature and rainfall is significant and negative. On the other hand, while the mean annual temperature is damaging to crops, annual rainfall is beneficial. It can be deduced that, while increased temperature and rainfall in summer and winter increase the net crop income, the converse is true for winter and spring seasons. The study also proposes a specific, context-dependent, farm-level adaptation analysis of how farmers cope with the different climatic impacts of the Nile Basin and maintain the income levels that they have previously enjoyed.

Baylie, MM; Fogarassy, C

Examining the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Net Crop Income in the Ethiopian Nile Basin: A Ricardian Fixed Effect Approach

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su13137243

Impacts of climate change have been observed in natural systems and are expected to intensify in future decades (IPCC in Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPPC, Geneva, 2014). Governments are seeking to establish adaptive measures for minimizing the effects of climate change on vulnerable citizen groups, economic sectors and critical infrastructure (Adger et al. in Global Environ Change 15(2):77-86, 2005. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.12.005; Smit and Wandel in Global Environ Change 16(3):282-292, 2006. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha. 2006.03.008). Coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to changing conditions due to rising sea levels and storm event intensification that produce new flood exposures (Richards and Daigle in Government of Prince Edward Island, Halifax, Nova Scotia, 2011 http://www.gov.pe.ca/ photos/original/ccscenarios.pdf). However, communities oftentimes lack access to locally-relevant climate change information that can support adaptation planning. This research introduces the use of a Geo-web tool for supporting local climate change adaptation efforts in coastal Canadian communities. The Geoweb tool (called AdaptNS'') is a web-based visualization tool that displays interactive flood exposure maps generated using local climate change projections of sea level rise and storm surge impacts between the years 2000 and 2100. AdaptNS includes participatory features that allow users to identify and share specific locations to protect against present and future coastal flood events. By soliciting feedback from community members, AdaptNS is shown to support local adaptation through the provision of flood exposure visuals, as a platform for identifying adaptation priorities, and as an avenue to communicate local risks to external entities that could facilitate local adaptation initiatives (e.g. upper levels of government). Future Geoweb research directions include improving the visualization of climate change projection uncertainties, the expansion of informational and participation capabilities, and understanding the potential for long-term adoption of Geoweb tools in adaptation decision-making.

Minano, A; Johnson, PA; Wandel, J

Visualizing flood risk, enabling participation and supporting climate change adaptation using the Geoweb: the case of coastal communities in Nova Scotia, Canada

Geojournal

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-017-9777-8

Farming systems in Europe are experiencing multiple stresses and shocks that may push systems beyond critical thresholds after which system change is expected to occur. These critical thresholds may lie in the economic, environmental, social and institutional domain. In this paper we take a participatory approach with involvement of farming system stakeholders to assess the presence of critical thresholds in 11 European farming systems, and the potential consequence of surpassing those with regard to system sustainability and resilience. First, critical thresholds of the main challenges, key system variables and their interactions in the studied farming systems were assessed. Second, participants assessed the potential developments of the key system variables in case critical thresholds for main system challenges would be exceeded. All studied systems were perceived to be close, at or beyond at least one identified critical threshold. Stakeholders were particularly worried about economic viability and food production levels. Moreover, critical thresholds were perceived to interact across system levels (field, farm, farming system) and domains (social, economic, environmental), with low economic viability leading to lower attractiveness of the farming system, and in some farming systems making it hard to maintain natural resources and biodiversity. Overall, a decline in performance of all key system variables was expected by workshop participants in case critical thresholds would be exceeded. For instance, a decline in the attractiveness of the area and a lower maintenance of natural resources and biodiversity. Our research shows that concern for exceeding critical thresholds is justified and that thresholds need to be studied while considering system variables at field, farm and farming system level across the social, economic and environmental domains. For instance, economic variables at farm level (e.g. income) seem important to detect whether a system is approaching critical thresholds of social variables at farming system level (e.g. attractiveness of the area), while in multiple case studies there are also indications that approaching thresholds of social variables (e.g. labor availability) are indicative for approaching economic thresholds (e.g. farm income). Based on our results we also reflect on the importance of system resources for stimulating sustainability and resilience of farming systems. We therefore stress the need to include variables that reflect system resources such as knowledge levels, attractiveness of rural areas and general well-being of rural residents when monitoring and evaluating the sustainability and resilience of EU farming systems.

Paas, W; Accatino, F; Bijttebier, J; Black, JE; Gavrilescu, C; Krupin, V; Manevska-Tasevska, G; Ollendorf, F; Peneva, M; San Martin, C; Zinnanti, C; Appel, F; Courtney, P; Severini, S; Soriano, B; Vigani, M; Zawalinska, K; van Ittersum, MK; Meuwissen, MPM; Reidsma, P

Participatory assessment of critical thresholds for resilient and sustainable European farming systems

Journal Of Rural Studies

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2021.10.016

CONTEXT: Climate uncertainty challenges the livelihoods of smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa. Awareness of climate-smart agricultural (CSA) practices and access to climate-smart technologies are key factors in determining the utilization of farm and land management practices that may simultaneously decrease greenhouse gas emissions, increase the adaptive capacity of farmers, and improve food security. OBJECTIVE: Understanding how biophysical and socio-economic constraints affect the adoption of CSA practices and technologies plays an essential role in policy and intervention planning. Our objective was to identify these constraints among smallholder farmers in Taita Taveta County of Southeast Kenya across varying agro-ecological zones. METHODS: We conducted a Climate-Smart Agriculture Rapid Appraisal that consisted of four mostly genderdisaggregated smallholder farmer workshops (102 participants), a household survey (65 participants), key informant interviews (16 informants), and four transect walks. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate a dissonance in the perceived awareness of CSA practices and utilization of CSA technologies between state actors and farmers. State actors emphasize lack of awareness as a barrier to adoption, while farmers express knowledgeability regarding environmental change and climate-smart practices but are confined by limitations and restrictions posed by e.g. market mechanisms, land tenure issues,and lack of resources. These restrictions include e.g. uncertainty in product prices, lack of land ownership, scarcity of arable land, and simply lack of capital or willingness to invest. Farmers are further challenged by the emergence of new pests and human-wildlife conflicts. Our research findings are based on the contextual settings of Taita Taveta County, but the results indicate that adopting CSA practices and utilizing technologies, especially in sub-Saharan regions that are heavily based on subsistence agriculture with heterogenous agro-ecological zones, require localized and gender-responsive solutions in policy formation and planning of both agricultural extension services and development interventions that take into account the agency of the farmers. SIGNIFICANCE: This study contributes to existing climate change adaptation research by increasing our un- derstanding of how physical and socio-economic constraints can affect the adoption of new farm and land management practices, and how CSA-based intervention strategies could be restructured by local stakeholders to be more inclusive.

Autio, A; Johansson, T; Motaroki, L; Minoia, P; Pellikka, P

Constraints for adopting climate-smart agricultural practices among smallholder farmers in Southeast Kenya

Agricultural Systems

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103284

In recent decades, resilience planning has been received significant attention by experts from most of the fields, especially landscape architects, in the face of flood and drought disturbances. The River Darakeh, as one of the urban rivers located in Tehran, is highly vulnerable to flood disturbance and its consequences despite the construction of flood-control infrastructures-channels and terraces on the riverbeds. This issue reveals the insufficiency of such plans in controlling the flood. Thus, it is necessary to plan and design the River Darakeh in order to reduce the risk of floods and increase the sustainability of the river. In this regard, this study seeks to fine an alternative approach instead of channels against the environmental problems and consequences of the floods of the River Darakeh. Therefore, this paper endeavors to find answers of the questions: is the new approach to resilience a viable alternative to one-dimensional and engineering approaches to the management of rivers? In order word, how can this approach transform the turbulent environment of the River Darakeh into a sustainable and environmentally and flood-friendly environment? Accordingly, this study employs the descriptive-analytical approach as well as a brief review of the related literature in order to gather various resilience indices. Then, design strategies based on the definitions of indices are extracted, and design solutions for the River Darakeh, as a case study, are presented in the face of flood disturbances. This study relies upon seven indices of resilience thinking-namely, redundancy, diversity, strength, connection, learning, self-organization, and variability-to present several strategies; including environmental and spatial diversity, high-level knowledge, the capacities and skills of indigenous people, the application of past generation's experiences regarding past floods, strength of natural and human-made components, strength of the spatial relations and coherence of design components, and self-organization of social and ecological resources; for designing the River Darakeh to withstand against flood turbulences. This design and planning initiative includes different social and environmental dimensions which can be considered as alternative solutions for the flood control channels and the terracing on the riverbeds. The finding of this paper can be applied as a pattern for chaotic urban rivers in Iran and throughout the world in similar circumstances.

Sabokro, D; Bahrami, F; Motedayen, H

Resilience Planning and Design of Urban Rivers in the Face of Flood Disturbances (A Case Study: The Resilience Planning of the River Darakeh)

Manzar-The Scientific Journal Of Landscape

https://doi.org/10.22034/MANZAR.2021.256203.2102

Climate change, population dynamics, the aging of built infrastructure, and their growing complexity have gradually increased the vulnerability of coastal communities around the world. Among the many critical coastal infrastructures, the residential coastal building stock has exhibited significant vulnerabilities in past storm and hurricane events. Beyond the initial impact of these hurricane events on the built environment, coastal communities struggle to recover even years after landfall. Moreover, the initial shock as well as the recovery phase do not evenly affect all sectors of the population and frequently uncover social vulnerabilities and inequalities in the preparedness, response, and recovery from disasters. This study explores and expands a performance-based coastal engineering (PBCE) framework that allows for consideration of time-varying aspects of the hazard, depreciation, and aging or deterioration of coastal structures and infrastructure systems by applying it to evaluate the future performance and recovery of a portfolio of residential structures subjected to surge and wave loads. Using the residential building stock of Galveston, Texas as a case study, a Bayesian network framework is leveraged to evaluate the uncertain damage and subsequent recovery of the portfolio for the years 2030 and 2050, and correlations with representative social vulnerability factors are drawn. The correlation analysis between immediate damage and social vulnerability factors, as well as between the recovery index and social vulnerability factors up to six years following the storm landfall, is pursued to expose potential disparities in the impact of the storm to different sectors of the community in the short- and long-term. Results show that changing climate conditions exacerbate the probability of failure of the building stock and associated housing recovery. Also, the correlations in the short- and long-terms show that the elderly and women might be most at risk in future hurricane events. The incorporation of multi-structure systems and time-varying factors in the performance assessment framework is of great importance to inform resilience and adaptation engineering models, in particular, when the effects of chronic hazards, a growing population, and increases in asset values are expected to grow in the future. The methodology and case study also provide useful tools to inform planning and decision-making, resilience assessment, and facilitate recovery efforts in coastal settings while accounting for the impact of the hazard on vulnerable populations. (C 2022 American Society of Civil Engineers.

González-Dueñas, C; Padgett, JE

Considering Time-Varying Factors and Social Vulnerabilities in Performance-Based Assessment of Coastal Communities Exposed to Hurricanes

Journal Of Structural Engineering

https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541X.0003400

Chaudhary Charan Singh Haryana Agricultural University in collaboration with India Meteorological Department, Ministry of Earth Sciences, GoI has been rendering weather forecast based Agromet Advisory Service (AAS) for benefit of farmers in the state through Agromet Field Units (AMFU) on Tuesday and Friday for next five days. Farmers of Haryana have begun to adopt new technologies and practices in recent years to become more and more climate smart for better economic returns without much external support. The weather based information was disseminated through several modes of communication viz. radio, television, local and regional newspapers, toll free numbers, community radios, etc., to the farmers of the Haryana state. The use of aforesaid means of dissemination of agromet advisory to the farmers have limitation i.e. less lead time is available for day to day planning for agricultural operations in the field. Web enabled agromet information system www.emausamhau.gov.in and www.emausamhau.com were developed for real time dissemination of agromet advisory to the farmers of the state under climate smart agriculture has the advantage of increase in lead time by reducing time in dissemination. It is a system that support the weather based farm decision making activities to the farmers through SMSs, mobile App and information kiosk. It provides real time weather based agro-advisory and benefit in managing the farm operations and reducing input losses. The weather based crop advisory services helped the farmers for maximize profit by increasing farm production and minimizing weather related losses. The Adaptive capacity of the farming community has been strengthened through reduced cost of cultivation and input use, access to knowledge, information and technology, and reduced risk from drought and other extreme events. In the current status >3.5 lakh farmers across the state have been receiving the weather based farm information through real time agromet decision support system for crop risk management through web enabled SMS services. The farmers showed overwhelmed response for their registration under mobile SMS and download the mobile app emausamhau from Google play store for weather forecast based crop information. It will help to enhance the farm productivity and farmer's income to be doubled by reducing farm losses with timely guidance through decision support system.

Khichar, ML; Niwas, R; Kumar, A; Singh, R; Bhan, SC

Weather based decision support system for crop risk management

Journal Of Agrometeorology

Southern African cities face several challenges including management of rapid urbanization, rising populations, expanding informal settlements; adequate water and other service provision, and a host of governance challenges. Climate change and variability add a compounding effect to this complex, multi stressor context. Addressing the complexity requires an understanding of urban ecosystems functioning and interactions amongst the built and natural environment (climate) and human systems. In this paper we argue that learning is essential for cities to be resilient to current and future challenges. We profile the Future Resilience for African CiTies And Lands (FRACTAL) project which contributed towards climate resilient development by providing relevant climate information for decision-making at the city regional scale in southern Africa. Following FRACTAL's city-to-city learning approach of sharing good practices, knowledge and experiences framed around transdisciplinary research, the study cities of Harare, Lusaka, Windhoek and Durban conducted city learning exchange visits between 2017 and 2018. We used a mixed methods approach to collect and analyze historical climate and hydrological data and current socio-economic and development data among the cities. A qualitative, in-depth, case study comparative analysis was used to identify similarities and differences as well as lessons drawn from the learning process during the city exchanges and these were complimented by desktop studies. Results showed water scarcity, large informal settlements, reliance on external water and energy sources, inadequate protection of ecologically sensitive resources and service provision as some of the common complications in the cities. Several lessons and transferable practices learnt from the cities included effective water conservation and waste management and the use of public-private partnerships in Windhoek, community engagements in Durban and Lusaka while lessons on decisive leadership in dealing with informal settlements emanated from Harare's limited informal settlements. Lastly, Durban's Adaptation Charter and integrated climate planning provided lessons for biodiversity protection and mainstreaming climate change at city governance level. While we recognize that cities are context-specific we consider these good practices as being broadly transferable to other southern African cities. We conclude that social, experiential and structured learning can be an innovative way of multi-stakeholder engagement and a useful approach to increase city resilience planning across southern Africa and cities that face similar developmental challenges.

Ndebele-Murisa, MR; Mubaya, CP; Pretorius, L; Mamombe, R; Iipinge, K; Nchito, W; Mfune, JK; Siame, G; Mwalukanga, B

City to city learning and knowledge exchange for climate resilience in southern Africa

Plos One

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227915

The sustainable development and food security of islands in the Asia-Pacific region is severely compromised by climate change, sea level rise and compounding socio-economic issues. To achieve a step-change in food production and climate adaptation, livelihoods must rapidly transform. Food security programs continue to apply the pipeline model of scaling-out technological innovations, but do not account for the social-ecological complexity of islands. We tested the feasibility of scaling-out adaptation strategies in two provinces in the region: Nusa Tenggara Barat in Indonesia, and West New Britain in Papua New Guinea. Guided by a sub-district typology of resource use, we trialled a participatory, systems-based livelihood adaptation pathways approach in sub-district case studies. The process aimed to mainstream social learning and future uncertainty into community development decision-making, yielding 'no regrets' adaptation strategies to transform livelihoods. We tested two assumptions: first, that because the contexts of all villages were homogenous, strategies were sufficiently similar to enable scaling-out across the provinces; second, that the sub-district typologies would assist scaling-out within each type. The results showed that the first assumption was untenable: there was very little similarity amongst villages' strategies; only sustainable fisheries management was scalable amongst coastal villages. The second was marginally tenable, because there were strong similarities amongst villages in an off-shore island type. When pooled into classes of adaptation strategy, most related to practice and behaviour change, and addressed systemic social issues; very few were technological. Our results suggest that scaling-out livelihood and food system innovations is not feasible due to the complex social-ecological contexts within islands, caused by steep climate gradients, natural resource and cultural diversity. We discuss the limitations of a resource use typology that aimed to mitigate this complexity and guide scaling-out. Instead we argue that appropriate social learning approaches akin to livelihood adaptation pathways must be mainstreamed into existing community development decision cycles, thereby scaling-up and scaling-deep to tackle institutional, political and cultural barriers to transformation. We discuss the implications of our recommendations for government and donor support for food security programs in islands of the Asia-Pacific region, and future research priorities.

Butler, JRA; Rochester, W; Skewes, TD; Wise, RM; Bohensky, EL; Katzfey, J; Kirono, DGC; Peterson, N; Suadnya, W; Yanuartati, Y; Handayani, T; Habibi, P; Jaya, KD; Sutaryono, Y; Masike-Liri, B; Vaghelo, D; Duggan, K

How Feasible Is the Scaling-Out of Livelihood and Food System Adaptation in Asia-Pacific Islands?

Frontiers In Sustainable Food Systems

https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2020.00043

The importance of climate services, i.e. providing targeted, tailored, and timely weather and climate information, has gained momentum, but requires improved understanding of user needs. This article identifies the opportunities and barriers to the use of climate services for planning in Malawi, to identify the types of information that can better inform future adaptation decisions in sub-Saharan Africa. From policy analysis, stakeholder interviews, and a national workshop utilizing serious games, it is determined that only 5-10 day and seasonal forecasts are currently being used in government decision making. Impediments to greater integration of climate services include spatial and temporal scale, accessibility, timing, credibility and the mismatch in timeframes between planning cycles (1-5 years) and climate projections (over 20 years). Information that could more usefully inform planning decisions includes rainfall distribution within a season, forecasts with 2-3 week lead times, likely timing and location of extreme events in the short term (1-5 years), and projections (e.g. rainfall and temperature change) in the medium term (6-20 years). Development of a national set of scenarios would also make climate information more accessible to decision makers, and capacity building around such scenarios would enable its improved use in short- to medium-term planning. Improved climate science and its integration with impact models offer exciting opportunities for integrated climate-resilient planning across sub-Saharan Africa. Accrual of positive impacts requires enhanced national capacity to interpret climate information and implement communication strategies across sectors.Policy relevanceFor climate services to achieve their goal of improving adaptation decision making, it is necessary to understand the decision making process and how and when various types of weather and climate information can be incorporated. Through a case study of public sector planning in Malawi, this article highlights relevant planning and policy-making processes. The current use of weather and climate information and needs, over various timescales-sub-annual to short term (1-5 years) to medium term (6-20 years)-is outlined. If climate scientists working with boundary organizations are able to address these issues in a more targeted, sector-facing manner they will improve the uptake of climate services and the likelihood of climate-resilient decisions across sub-Saharan Africa.

Vincent, K; Dougill, AJ; Dixon, JL; Stringer, LC; Cull, T

Identifying climate services needs for national planning: insights from Malawi

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2015.1075374

The most recent assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change confirms the importance of adaptation strategies such as 'retreat, accommodate or protect' but emphasizes the significance of institutional and governance structures in decision-making. Even without the threat of climate change there is a legacy of vulnerable coastal development in many parts of the world where there has been a lack of understanding of coastal processes. Coastal vulnerability and adaptation strategies are well covered in the literature but the extent to which coastal experts are used to advise on development in vulnerable coastal areas has to date received scant attention. Expert coastal advice is essential to reduce vulnerability of coastal residential development to both existing coastal erosion and flooding and in particular to the threat of increased vulnerability associated with future climate change. This paper uses the Australian system of coastal management, where responsibilities rest mostly with state governments, to discuss the nature of coastal experts and the types of advice they provide. We focus specifically on the relevant legislation, statutory coastal authorities, coastal strategies, coastal planning and decision-making, where there are clear pathways for incorporating expert coastal advice. Only four states have dedicated coastal legislation and each state has its own planning legislation, which is linked to one or more pieces of legislation covering coastal development. Two case studies are used from different states to illustrate how these mechanisms for incorporating expert advice operate in practice. Our analysis includes both anecdotal case studies plus a more detailed quantitative analysis from one state using a decade of records to illustrate temporal patterns in the use of expert advice. The paper concludes that Australia has a variable use of adopting coastal expert advice into the coastal residential development approval process because each state has different stages where the advice is incorporated into its planning system. These variations can be represented along a continuum of specificity for expert advice provided. It appears that none of the states provides a fail-safe mechanism to prevent residential development being built too close to the coast as shown by case studies described. In one state there is a statutory requirement for referral to an expert coastal body but a proportion of the advice is ignored. Most state jurisdictions are now attempting to mainstream expert advice into planning legislation, policies and guidelines so that best practice principles are adopted early in the development approval process in order to avoid building too close to the coast.

Harvey, N; Smithers, S

How close to the coast? Incorporating coastal expertise into decision-making on residential development in Australia

Ocean & Coastal Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2018.03.007

Background: Vietnam is one of the countries most impacted by disasters in Asia- Pacific. Floods, droughts and storms are the most common catastrophes. These risks endanger millions of lives and create massive financial and production losses.Objective: This study aims at reviewing the disaster risk management (DRM) system in Vietnam, identifying progress and challenges of this system, hence making recommendations for improving the system for better responding with natural hazards.Method: The study uses PSR model (Pressure- State- Response) in combination with DRM management framework by United Nations Development Program (UNDP) to evaluate DRM system in Vietnam with 5 aspects: (i) DRM regulatory framework (ii) DRM organization (iii) DRM financial resources (iv) DRM integration in to plans at central and local levels (v) Disaster warning and education. The data collection consists of reviewing existing literature and interviewing key informants in DRM.Results: Disasters is a serious threat to Vietnam's socio economic development. To respond, Vietnam has made many efforts including develop a comprehensive legal framework for DRM which Law on Disaster Prevention and Control takes the key role. Vietnam has also established a fairly well organized DRM system from the central to local levels. The financial sources for DRM are arranged from State budget and sources outside State budget. Vietnam has developed major policies for integrating DRM into development plans centrally and locally. The disaster information and warning system is being modernized with the integration of disaster education in training programs. Challenges in DRM are identified, including institutional, financial and information issues. In addition, Vietnam is facing the increase of disasters and extreme climate events due to climate change. Covid 19 and its socio-economic consequences also lead to a lack of resources for DRM. Economic development moreover results in the decline of ecosystem-based disaster mitigation works and put more pressures on DRM.Recommendations: In the future, Vietnam should develop an information-sharing network between ministries, sectors, localities and NGOs to support the policy formulation process and enhance the coordination of multistakeholders. The country should also establish more proper funding allocation mechanisms to fulfill DRM's demands, especially for disaster preparedness and reconstruction phases.

Huong, TTL; Anh, DTV; Dat, TT; Truong, DD; Tam, DD

Disaster risk management system in Vietnam: progress and challenges

Heliyon

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e10701

The Himalayan foothills of West Bengal are a part of the great Eastern Himalaya, which is by locational virtue a recognized flood-prone area. The area is also well known for frequent and heavy rain storms and climate-induced catastrophic events, such as flash floods due to the unprecedented rains in the Bhutan Himalaya. Therefore, climate-induced disasters like floods have been the prime reasons for rural vulnerabilities. Therefore, the primary aim of the present study is to find out whether there are any differences between levels of vulnerability amidst agriculture-dependent villages and forest resource-dependent villages in the same flood-prone area or not. In addition, the study will also examine how the agriculture-dependent villages are different from forest resource-dependent villages in terms of climate vulnerability and vice versa. The climate change vulnerability index has been applied, and a total of 100 households have been surveyed covering seven dimensions of vulnerability. The exposure score was found to be the highest in Raja Bhatkhawa (0.41) followed by Nathuar Char (0.30) and Bhelakoba (0.27). No significant differences were found in terms of climatic exposure except in Mendabari. Further, it has been observed that the resilience factors in households like education, workforce opportunities, health, and institutional accessibility are highly uneven, which has been creating hinders to the adaptive capacity. In the villages where overall vulnerability to climate change was found to be high, the adaptive capacity was found to be low. Simultaneously, in those villages, the sensitivity was found to be high. It has been found that the location of the villages plays an important role when it comes to vulnerability because the forest villages are relatively more vulnerable than the agricultural villages. However, the riverside location of Nathuar Char has made this village highly vulnerable; and the people of Nathuar Char have been living with floods, and they are trying to adapt with climate-induced floods. Finally, it has been observed that vulnerability is context dependent (i.e. based on land resources, accessibility to basic infrastructure, water and sanitation facilities, and awareness to disasters) and varies from household to household.

Ghosh, M; Ghosal, S

Climate change vulnerability of rural households in flood-prone areas of Himalayan foothills, West Bengal, India

Environment Development And Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-00687-0

Purpose The consequences of extreme climatic events that threaten food security have created the urgent need to properly adopt climate-smart adaptation techniques to improve productivity. The study examined the sustainability responses to climate-smart adaptation and the implication it has for explaining the food security situations among farm households in the Central Region of Ghana. Design/methodology/approach We estimated Heckit treatment effect model to analyse cross-sectional data collected from randomly selected farmers in the Central Region. Findings Analysis of farm sustainability index suggests that farmers' agricultural practices in response to climate change are lowly or moderately sustainable. We further found that while majority of the farm households are severely food insecure or food insecure with hunger, only about one-third are food insecure without hunger and the remaining few being food secure. The sustainability of farm practices is being impacted by the farmers' choice of climate smart adaptation measures at the farm level. Consequently, the farm households' food security situation is found to be improved when sustainable farming practices are employed in the face of managing climate change effects. Practical implications Conclusions drawn from the study findings give rooms for policy implications that suggest responsibilities for policymakers, farmers and other stakeholders to promote CSA practices in food crop production in Ghana. These policy implications will contribute to improve crop productivity, increase incomes and thus enhance food security among farm families. Awareness campaign about benefits of CSA practices and technologies need to be strengthened among farmers in Ghana by government and NGOs that matter in promoting farm resilience to climate change. Given the important impacts of sustainable farm practices on household food security situation, policies that seek to build the adaptive capacity of farmers to climate vulnerability impacts should take into consideration the sustainability dimensions of the adaptation and mitigation measures to be advocated for use at farm levels. Originality/value Our paper contributes to literature knowledge on climate-smart adaptation practices effect on food security as evidenced in some recent literature. The paper makes a unique contribution by highlighting the food security implication of the sustainability impact of CSA practices, thereby exploring sustainability as an impact pathway between climate smart adaptations practices and food security in a developing country like Ghana. We approached our study aiming at making new contribution by introducing in the study implementation a quasi-experimental research design which future studies on impacts of climate smart adaptation practices can replicate.

Dadzie, SKN; Inkoom, EW; Akaba, S; Annor-Frempong, F; Afful, J

Sustainability responses to climate-smart adaptation in Africa: implication for food security among farm households in the Central Region of Ghana

African Journal Of Economic And Management Studies

https://doi.org/10.1108/AJEMS-04-2019-0155

Cumulative environmental impacts driven by anthropogenic stressors lead to disproportionate effects on indigenous communities that are reliant on land and water resources. Understanding and counteracting these effects requires knowledge from multiple sources. Yet the combined use of Traditional Knowledge (TK) and Scientific Knowledge (SK) has both technical and philosophical hurdles to overcome, and suffers from inherently imbalanced power dynamics that can disfavour the very communities it intends to benefit. In this article, we present a 'two-eyed seeing' approach for co-producing and blending knowledge about ecosystem health by using an adapted Bayesian Belief Network for the Slave River and Delta region in Canada's Northwest Territories. We highlight how bridging TM and SK with a combination of field data, interview transcripts, existing models, and expert judgement can address key questions about ecosystem health when considerable uncertainty exists. SK indicators (e.g., bird counts, mercury in fish, water depth) were graded as moderate, whereas TM indicators (e.g., bird usage, fish aesthetics, changes to water flow) were graded as being poor in comparison to the past. SK indicators were predominantly spatial (i.e., comparing to other locations) while the TK indicators were predominantly temporal (i.e., comparing across time). After being populated by 16 experts (local harvesters, Elders, governmental representatives, and scientists) using both TK and SK, the model output reported low probabilities that the social-ecological system is healthy as it used to be. We argue that it is novel and important to bridge TM and SK to address the challenges of environmental change such as the cumulative impacts of multiple stressors on ecosystems and the services they provide. This study presents a critical social-ecological tool for widening the evidence-base to a more holistic understanding of the system dynamics of multiple environmental stressors in ecosystems and for developing more effective knowledge-inclusive partnerships between indigenous communities, researchers and policy decision-makers. This represents new transformational empirical insights into how wider knowledge discourses can contribute to more effective adaptive co-management governance practices and solutions for the resilience and sustainability of ecosystems in Northern Canada and other parts of the world with strong indigenous land tenure. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mantyka-Pringle, CS; Jardine, TD; Bradford, L; Bharadwaj, L; Kythreotis, AP; Fresque-Baxter, J; Kelly, E; Somers, G; Doig, LE; Jones, PD; Lindenschmidt, KE

Bridging science and traditional knowledge to assess cumulative impacts of stressors on ecosystem health

Environment International

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2017.02.008

The views of local people on climate change along different ecological regions are relatively unexplored in Nepal. This study was conducted in 13 villages in central Nepal at different altitudes to document the views of small holder farmers and compare their perception with trends of climatic variables, finger millet yield, natural disasters, plant phenology (flowering and fruiting), status of forest and wild life, as well as the spread of diseases and pests. Analysis on the climatic data of stations for 36-41 years between 1975 and 2016 showed significant increases in the minimum temperature in lower tropical climatic region (<500 m), upper tropical to subtropical climatic region (500-2000 m) and temperate climatic region (2000-3000 m) by 0.01, 0.026 and 0.054 degrees C/year, respectively, and an increase of maximum temperature by 0.008, 0.018, and 0.019 degrees C/year, respectively. Rainfall showed a strongly significant decreasing trend in all elevation regions. This result matches with the views of respondents except 38% respondent from temperate climatic region. People from the temperate climatic region also mentioned that current onset of snowfall is delayed but amount of snowfall remained the same. From the documented records, except events of wild fire, frequency of natural disasters events have increased in the recent years, which was in harmony with the views of local people. Multi-linear regression analysis showed that contribution of climatic variables on finger millet yield in lower tropical climatic region and upper tropical to subtropical regions was 23% and 57.3%, respectively, which was supported by increasing trend on average growing degree day (GDD) temperature at the rate of 0.01 degrees C in upper tropical to subtropical region and 0.007 degrees C in lower tropical climatic region yearly. Finger millet yield has been increasing at the rate of 7.39 and 36.9 kg/ha yearly in lower tropical climatic region and upper tropical to subtropical climatic region, respectively. This result provides deeper understanding of people's perception of causes and effects of climate change on diverse variables along different elevation and related magnitude which can contribute to policy making in Nepal.

Luitel, DR; Siwakoti, M; Jha, PK

Climate change and finger millet: Perception, trend and impact on yield in different ecological regions in Central Nepal

Journal Of Mountain Science

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-018-5165-1

The intensification of global climate change leads to frequent mountain torrents, landslides, debris flows and other disasters, which seriously threaten the safety of residents' lives and property. However, few studies have compared and analyzed the livelihood vulnerability and adaptation strategies of farmers in different disaster-threatened areas under the background of climate change. Based on survey data of 327 households in the areas threatened by mountain floods, landslides and debris flow in Sichuan Province, this study analyzed the characteristics of livelihood vulnerability and adaptation strategies of households in the areas threatened by different disaster types and constructed multinomial logistic regression models to explore their correlations. The findings show that: (1) The livelihood vulnerability indices of farmers in different hazard types showed different characteristics. Among them, the livelihood vulnerability index of farmers in landslide-threatened zones is the highest, followed by the livelihood vulnerability index of farmers in debris-flow-threatened zones, and finally the livelihood vulnerability index of farmers in flash flood threat zones. At the same time, all three natural hazards show a trend of higher vulnerability in the sensitivity dimension than in the exposure and livelihood resilience dimensions. (2) The nonfarming livelihood strategy is the main livelihood strategy for farmers in different disaster-type-threatened areas. At the same time, the vulnerability of farmers choosing the nonfarming livelihood strategy is much higher than that of farmers choosing the part-time livelihood strategy and pure farming livelihood strategy, and the vulnerability of sensitivity dimension is higher than that of the exposure dimension and livelihood resilience dimension. (3) For farmers in landslide- and debris-flow-threatened areas, livelihood resilience is an important factor affecting their livelihood strategy. There was a positive correlation between livelihood resilience and farmers' choice of pure agricultural livelihood strategies in these two natural-disaster-threatened areas. This study deepens our understanding of the characteristics and relationships of farmers' livelihood vulnerability and adaptation strategies under different disaster types in the context of climate change, and then provides the reference basis for the formulation of livelihood-adaptive capacity promotion-related policy.

Yang, X; Guo, SL; Deng, X; Wang, W; Xu, DD

Study on Livelihood Vulnerability and Adaptation Strategies of Farmers in Areas Threatened by Different Disaster Types under Climate Change

Agriculture-Basel

https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11111088

Concerns over social justice cannot be separated from concerns over the environment, and vice-versa. Gender in the climate change literature is predominantly vulnerability and adaptation centric, with a glaring gap in research on understanding the relationship between mitigation and gender justice. Building on the insights from gender justice, environmental justice, and climate justice scholarship, this paper argues that mitigation policy should be conceived not only in terms of transition to a low carbon economy but also as an instrument for enhancing gender justice. To conceptualize such a mitigation policy, we propose a two-step approach, combining the works of Schlosberg, Fraser, and Sen. We argue that, to start with, it is important to identify relevant forms of exclusion, and then, in turn, to identify opportunities for ?parity of participation? of women in the mitigation policy cycle. This must be supplemented with identification of, and efforts at, building long-lasting supporting capabilities. Application of the proposed approach is illustrated through three examples from India: the National REDD+ Strategy, the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojna (PMUY) for cleaner fuels, and the International Solar Training Programme (Solar Mamas). We illustrate how the Solar Mamas scheme is closer to the proposed two-step approach and hence better integrates mitigation and gender justice objectives, whereas the REDD+ and the PMUY need revisiting with additional provisions and reconceptualization. The paper suggests that mainstreaming of gender justice into implementation of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement is a promising new field of research. Key policy insights Failure to consider gendered barriers to meaningful participation of women may limit the effectiveness of even women-centric mitigation policies in achieving their stated objectives. It is possible to at least nudge the social drivers of gender injustice by identifying and creating opportunities for addressing the androcentric foundations of exclusion and marginalization of women. Mitigation policies offer unique opportunities to go beyond highlighting the structures of gender injustices embedded in socio-economic systems to break the stereotypes of gendered-roles by recognizing women as key stakeholders and claimants in the new low-carbon society. This would require reconceptualizing capacity building for mitigation.

Michael, K; Shrivastava, MK; Hakhu, A; Bajaj, K

A two-step approach to integrating gender justice into mitigation policy: examples from India

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2019.1676688

IntroductionGlobal climate change, which is characterized by climate warming, has become one of the most prominent risk problems in society at present. Climate migration brings many accompanying problems to the environment, economy, politics, society, and culture. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the internal relationship between climate change and population migration. MethodsThe data were extracted from the Web of Science core collection database (WOS) and China Knowledge Network database (CNKI). A total of 785 documents and 157 documents in the field of climate migration from 2008 to 2021 were selected as analysis samples. Word frequency analysis, clustering analysis, sudden word detection analysis, and other methods were extensively used to build the evolution trend map of climate migration using CiteSpace visual bibliometric software. ResultsIt is concluded that climate migration research has experienced three stages of development: initial exploration stage (2008-2011), development enrichment stage (2012-2017), and system deepening stage (2018).The hot topics of climate migration include: (1) different types of climate migration research; (2) Quantitative model research on climate migration; (3) Climate justice research. Different types of climate migration include 7 main types: (1) migration caused by sea level rise; (2) Resettlement caused by flood disaster; (3) Migration due to worsening drought; (4) Migration caused by extreme climate events; (5) Voluntary migration due to climate change discomfort; (6) Project resettlement caused by climate change response engineering measures; (7) Migrants whose livelihoods are broken due to climate change. DiscussionThe study points out that climate migration research is an interdisciplinary research field, which needs joint research by scholars from different academic backgrounds. In the future climate migration research, 1) strengthen the prediction ability of climate change population migration model; 2) Make use of China's beneficial exploration in the migration fields such as engineering resettlement, ecological resettlement and poverty alleviation resettlement to formulate climate migration policies, regulations and strategic planning; 3) Establish a database cloud platform related to climate change and population migration; 4) Strengthen the exchange and cooperation between Chinese researchers in the field of climate migration and international scientific research institutions.

Liang, B; Shi, GQ; Sun, ZG; Babul, H; Zhou, M

Evolution trend and hot topic measurement of climate migration research under the influence of climate change

Frontiers In Ecology And Evolution

https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2023.1118037

Coastal households in Bangladesh are exposed to a variety of extreme climate events, which represent a major threat to food security. However, there is a dearth of empirical research on the adoption and impact of climate change (CC) adaptation measures on food security. Using cross-sectional data from 750 households, this study investigates farmers' perceptions of CC, the drivers of adaptation measures, and the impact on the household food security in coastal areas of Bangladesh. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, multivariate probit, and propensity score matching. According to the findings, most respondents believed that CC is occurring. Climate change adaptation measures were classified into six categories. Borrowing and selling of assets, as well as off-farm labour employment, were used as adaptation measures by more than 85% of the households. Crop farming-related adaptation measure was used by around 47% of the households. Among the explanatory factors, cultivable land area, farming experience, access to climate information, yearly income, and location of households had a significant role in the choice to use adaptation measures. The findings suggested that agriculture-based adaptation measures, such as a change in crop farming technique, significantly reduced food insecurity, whereas off-farm labour employment, as well as borrowing and selling of assets, increased it (as measured on the household food insecurity access scale [HFIAS]). This analysis suggests that government and non-governmental organizations operating in coastal communities may want to prioritize actions to increase understanding and access to climate information amongst farmers and other households. Policies that are location-specific and specific to farmers' needs must also be developed to fully reap the benefits of adaptation measures. Key policy insightsFuture measures should focus on increasing coastal households' capabilities and enhancing their understanding and access to climate information.Adaptation measures, such as borrowing and selling assets, increase household food insecurity. Therefore, adoption of agriculture-based adaptation measures should be emphasized in coastal region's development policies.Greater attention should be paid to the exposed coastal areas, where the implementation of adaptation measures is found to be lower than in the interior coastal areas.Creating permanent off-farm employment opportunities as opposed to temporary off-farm work may also aid in adapting to climate change while also contributing to food security.

Rahman, MS; Zulfiqar, F; Ullah, H; Himanshu, SK; Datta, A

Farmers' perceptions, determinants of adoption, and impact on food security: case of climate change adaptation measures in coastal Bangladesh

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2023.2212638

Institutional capacity is an important element for climate change adaptation (CCA) and the development of such capacity is a great challenge in a Least Developed Country like Cambodia where resources are limited. An important first step to increasing capacity is via an understanding of the level of existing capacity; future priorities can then be subsequently identified. This study aimed to assess the capacity of organizations to implement climate change activities in Cambodia in order to provide such a basis for building capacity. Four elements of capacity were investigated in this research: (1) financial resources, (2) cooperation and coordination of stakeholders, (3) availability and quality of information on vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, and (4) the level of understanding of climate change vulnerability and adaptation. The data were collected through semistructured interviews with a wide range of government and non-government informants across a number of sectors. Results of the study showed that informants perceived capacity for CCA to be very constrained, especially in terms of financial resources and cooperation, and addressing these factors was ranked as the highest climate change capacity priority. Institutional capacity constraints were considered to relate more generally to weak governance of CCA. In light of our research findings, the absence of local higher education institutions in CCA activities should be addressed. The support of such institutions would provide an important mechanism to progress both capacity development as well as partnerships and coordination between different types of organizations and relevant sectors. Policy relevance Capacity for CCA within Cambodian health and water sectors was perceived to be very constrained across a range of interdependent factors. Increasing funding was ranked as the highest priority for building capacity for CCA; however, governance factors such as 'improved cooperation' were also ranked highly. Improving stakeholders' awareness of the availability of adaptation funds and resources, and their responsiveness to funding criteria, is an important implication of our research, as is improving the mobilization of local resources and the private sector. To address the issue of weak cooperation among stakeholders, improving the coordination function of the National Climate Change Committee (NCCC) regarding stakeholder engagement and capacity building is crucial. Ensuring that CCA activities are based on sound information and knowledge from across different disciplines and, importantly, include the perspectives of vulnerable people themselves, ultimately underpins and supports the realization of the above priorities.

Dany, V; Bowen, KJ; Miller, F

Assessing the institutional capacity to adapt to climate change: a case study in the Cambodian health and water sectors

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2014.937385

The potential of the sub-basins to generate peak flood plays crucial role in assessing the probable degree of damage to various exposures in hazard condition. In this study, a semi-distributed event-based hydrological model and theoretical indicator-based framework were integrated to evaluate the vulnerability of sub-basins to generate peak flood using the Geographical Information System (GIS). The flood peak discharge of each sub-basin corresponding to the 2014 extreme flood of the Jhelum river was related with different sub-basins characteristics (terrain, hydrological, land use, and soil) to assess vulnerability of flood peak which can be categorized into the class of vulnerability called physical vulnerability. The determined characteristics of the sub-basins from the configured hydrological model were treated as vulnerability indicators. The calibrated (2014) and validated (1992 and 1997) hydrological model showed Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.96 and (0.97, 0.98), respectively, at upstream gauging station Sangam against optimized curve number (CN) scaling factor of 0.98. However, the NSE values of 0.84 and 0.78 are obtained at the other two gauging stations, i.e., RamMunshi Bagh and Asham in the downstream after the calibration process at Sangam in the upstream. The Anantnag and Kulgam districts, exhibiting multiple sub-basins contributing to the Sangam gauging station, are falling into a high vulnerable category located in the Jhelum basin's southeastern part, Greater Himalayan Range. It was also revealed that sub-basins at the upstream of the Jhelum basin are more vulnerable compared to downstream area, where sub-basin W810, Anantnag district (Greater Himalaya), draining at Sangam gauging site is the most vulnerable. Further, hydrological characteristics control the most vulnerable sub-basin peak discharge rather than other characteristics such as terrain, soil, or land use. Outcomes of the study will be helpful in prioritizing the flood mitigation planning not only with respect to the hydrological boundary (sub-basin level) but also with administrative district boundaries. The proposed method is generic and can be applied to any flood-prone river basin.

Ranjan, R; Dhote, PR; Thakur, PK; Aggarwal, SP

Investigation of basin characteristics: Implications for sub-basin-level vulnerability to flood peak generation

Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05288-w

Most of the world's major cities currently face the risk of flooding, which is becoming more frequent. Floods often leave behind enormous material damage and, worse still, loss of human life. With this in mind, this paper proposes a conceptual approach to modeling flood risk-sensitive areas in the Mfoundi watershed (95.6 km(2)) that drains Yaounde town, the political capital located in the humid tropical zone of the southern plateau of Cameroon. The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach coupled with the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and the geographical information system (GIS) environment was employed in this study. The method was applied to ten parameters to calculate the flood risk index and hence to generate the flood susceptibility map. The results show five main classes of susceptibility to flooding: very low (9.27 km(2)), low (24.63 km(2)), moderate (22.04 km(2)), high (21.01 km(2)) and very high (19.50 km(2)). Two methods were adopted to validate the flood susceptibility map, which was produced by overlaying 50 regularly flooded points identified in the Mfoundi watershed. The so-called visual method shows that 36 of these points (72%) are found in environments with very high susceptibility and 11 points (22%) are located in areas with high susceptibility, proving that the results reflect reality. The presence of flood points in areas of low and moderate susceptibility could be linked to both human activities and climatic disruption, which sometimes triggers high rainfall. The statistical method (AUC) presents a very good accuracy (0.84 or 84%) of the map produced. This study is important for several reasons: (1) it is carried out in an area with potential for environmental accidents but where very few studies were carried out to delineate these hazards; (2) it provides a basic tool for making decisions about environmental issues for more efficient management of the Mfoundi Watershed; (3) it is also an experimental study representative of the humid tropical forest zone subject to forcings that should be extended to larger scales by covering several climate units in Cameroon.

Nsangou, D; Kpoumié, A; Mfonka, Z; Bateni, SM; Ngouh, AN; Ngoupayou, JRN

The Mfoundi Watershed at Yaounde in the Humid Tropical Zone of Cameroon: A Case Study of Urban Flood Susceptibility Mapping

Earth Systems And Environment

https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00276-9

Climate change is causing sea-level rise, intense and frequent storm surge flooding, and significant shoreline erosion in Malaysian coastal areas. Consequently, coastal properties, infrastructure, and livelihoods are threatened. It has become apparent that adaptation at the household and community level is necessary to offset the adverse impacts of coastal hazards. The community needs to be made aware of the risks, acquire knowledge about adaptation options, and be empowered to take their own actions. Public perception and preference are therefore crucial for design and implementation of effective planning for climate change. Thus, this study assesses households' perception, adaptation measures and empirically estimates willingness to pay and preference for planned adaptation measures to guide policy instruments through public engagement. In Malaysia, ten highly vulnerable coastal areas in the Selangor coast were surveyed at the household level (n 1/4 1016) through face-to-face interviews using a structured questionnaire. Regarding households' perception and adaptation methods, most of the households in the highly exposed areas perceived less risk of inundation and sea-level rise threat and adopted less proactive adaptation and limited risk reduction be-haviours during the extreme event. The study found that 66.9% of households were willing to pay for planned adaptation measures despite the limited income capabilities and in favour of moderate adaptation (23.9%). The binomial and ordinal regression results indicated that the probability of willingness to pay for planned adaptation measures significantly increases with age, prior exposure to coastal hazards, awareness, risk perception, community participation, being affected by property damage and loss of income due to extreme events. With increased monthly household income and access to telecommunication services, households will probably pay higher for better adaptation measures. A significant amount of perceived yearly adaptation benefits in the coastal districts revealed the economic value of extensive (22,969.50 MYR/5462.43 USD), moderate (21,853.20 MYR/5196.96 USD) and minimal adaptation measures (8022.90 MYR/1907.94 USD) that can be utilised to incentivise coastal adaptation plans. The findings suggest policies to incorporate social values to reduce vulnerability, enhance community resilience, and contribute to the knowledge gap of adaptation research in the coastal areas.

Ehsan, S; Begum, RA; Maulud, KNA; Mia, MS

Assessing household perception, autonomous adaptation and economic value of adaptation benefits: Evidence from West Coast of Peninsular Malaysia

Advances In Climate Change Research

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2022.06.002

Socio-environmental vulnerability to climate change in mountain landscapes depends upon multiple factors that can vary across altitude zones. However, there is limited knowledge on specific indicators suitable for assessing socio-environmental vulnerability that address altitude-related variations. This study systematically analysed important components of vulnerability and mapped them by weight for four altitude zones in the Indian Himalayas. Indices focusing on components of the three different dimensions of vulnerability (adaptive capacity, exposure, sensitivity) were identified based on the literature. Data on these different indices were then collected through a pre-tested questionnaire-based survey of 403 randomly selected households in the four altitude zones (< 1000 (low), 1000-1500 (middle), 1500-2000 (high), > 2000 m a.s.l. (very high)) in the Garhwal Himalaya, India. Components of vulnerability dimensions were assessed and significantly contributing components were identified by Principal Component Analysis (PCA). An entropy method was used to weight the dimensions of vulnerability for the different altitude zones. Vulnerability was estimated based on the Manush approach of human development index. The data were used to produce a spatial map based on a proposed Spatial Social Vulnerability Index (SSEVI). SSEVI was proposed based on social and environmental indicators of vulnerability with a mix of spatial indicators to generate spatially bound vulnerability. The results indicated that communities in the middle and high altitude zones (1000-2000 m a.s.l.) were more vulnerable (score 0.32 and 0.31, respectively) than those in the low and very high zones (score 0.29 and 0.30, respectively). Greater vulnerability was mainly due to high exposure to extreme events and less adaptive capacity, which can affect agricultural production negatively, in combination with high population density in middle-altitude communities. There was lower pressure on natural resources and better connectivity in the low altitude zone (< 1000 m a.s.l.), reducing vulnerability. The spatial SSVI map clearly revealed vulnerable hotspots, suggesting that government supported adaptation measures should not be similar across the altitude gradient in the Indian Himalayas, but should be based on available resources, pressure and livelihood options for achieving sustainability under climate change.

Gupta, AK; Negi, M; Nandy, S; Kumar, M; Singh, V; Valente, D; Petrosillo, I; Pandey, R

Mapping socio-environmental vulnerability to climate change in different altitude zones in the Indian Himalayas

Ecological Indicators

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.105787

Climate change has become a global phenomenon, but its impact is unevenly distributed among regions, economic classes, age classes and genders. Gender is among the factors that influence the perception and adaptation of smallholder farmers to the impacts of climate change. This study assessed the level of gender vulnerability, perception and adaptation options against climate change in the rural areas of Meta District, eastern Ethiopia. Data were collected from 193 respondents through household survey, focus group discussions (FGD) and key informant interviews. Long-term climate data (1990-2019) were acquired from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia. Integrated vulnerability assessment method through the construction of indices from selected indicators of climate change was used to describe vulnerability. A multivariate probit model (MVP) was employed to identify factors affecting the choice of adaptation options to climate change. Climate data analysis showed that long-term annual, belg (short rainy season from February-April) and kiremt (long rainy season from June-September) seasonal rainfall had high variability with a coefficient of variation of 37.7%, 42.5% and 34.4%, respectively. Approximately 90% of male- and 74% of female-headed households perceived declining and erratic rainfall and rising temperature over time in their locality in the last three decades. The lower perception of women implies that they had less access to climate information and lack awareness, which constrains their adaptation against the impacts of climate change. The likelihood of household heads adopting soil and water conservation (SWC) practices, adjusting planting dates and use of drought-tolerant varieties was 77.2%, 56.9% and 53.9%, respectively. Women were more vulnerable, with a vulnerability index (VI) of - 0.138, to climate change than men (VI = 0.009) in the study area. These findings necessitate the formulation and implementation of gender-sensitive and context-specific policies that provide poor female farmers with the opportunities to diversify their livelihood with non-farm income. Moreover, non-formal trainings and better extension services are needed to enhance the perception of climate change and the use of adaptation practices to improve resilience against climate change.

Maja, MM; Idiris, AA; Terefe, AT; Fashe, MM

Gendered Vulnerability, Perception and Adaptation Options of Smallholder Farmers to Climate Change in Eastern Ethiopia

Earth Systems And Environment

https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-022-00324-y

The Tista floodplain is one of the major food baskets of North Bengal and is sensitive to a multitude of issues regarding vulnerability. The riparian areas and the river island or charland of the lower Tista River basin in India, specifically from Sevoke to the Indo-Bangladesh border, generally suffer due to flood-prone, river course shifting, limited livelihood activities, low adaptive capacity, and poor accessibility. The present work is conducted to assess the livelihood vulnerability based on the livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) framework of the agriculture-dependent riparian villages and the charlands of the River Tista in the Jalpaiguri district. Total 337 households of five villages from the Mal and Maynaguri block at the left bank of the Tista River were selected to conduct the field survey. The livelihood vulnerability was assessed based on eight major components (viz., socio-demographic profile, health condition, livelihood strategies, food support, water support, climatic variability, flood hazards, and social safety) and 42 sub-components. The three contributing factors, i.e., adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and exposure, have been combined to calculate the livelihood vulnerability employing the LVI and LVI-IPCC methodologies. The outcome of the study exhibit that LVI scored highest in Premganj Majhiali (0.436), followed by Basusuba (0.403), Uttar Marichbari (0.349), Domohani (0.335), and Chat Rarpur village (0.328). According to the LVI-IPCC results, Basusuba has the most vulnerability (0.015), whereas Domohani has the least (0.007). In terms of flood hazard, variations were noticed based on increasing distance from the river. Lack of adaptive capacity prevailed in the villages with significant flooding events. Building awareness of the inhabitants will be an effective way to improve the adaptive capacity of the rural villagers. Therefore, giving priority to the policies depending on the natural environment of the active flood-prone region would make long-term sustainability.

Mitra, R; Mandal, DK

Assessment of livelihood vulnerability in the riparian region of the Tista River, West Bengal, India

Geojournal

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-022-10645-0

Tropical cyclones devastate large areas, take numerous lives and damage extensive property in Bangladesh. Research on landfalling tropical cyclones affecting Bangladesh has primarily focused on events occurring since AD 1960 with limited work examining earlier historical records. We rectify this gap by developing a new tropical cyclone catalogue that maximizes the use of available sources. The catalogue consists of 304 tropical cyclones that occurred between AD 1000 and AD 2009 and made landfall along the coasts of Bangladesh, eastern India and Myanmar. One hundred and ninety-three events directly struck Bangladesh between AD 1484 and AD 2009, although the precise landfall location of six events is unknown. Of the remaining 187 events, Cox's Bazar, Chittagong, Noakhali, Barisal and Khulna were struck by 30, 46, 19, 41 and 51 tropical cyclones, respectively. There is a paucity of data about tropical cyclones before AD 1900 and this increases the further back in time we go. Inconsistencies in reported storm surge height, wind speed and exaggerations in the reporting of deaths are identified and discussed. Some 20 72 509 human deaths in Bangladesh are associated with 71 tropical cyclones that occurred between AD 1484 and AD 2009. Between AD 1923 and AD 2009, 11 tropical cyclones caused 94 35 000 people to become homeless and between AD 1961 and AD 2009, 10 tropical cyclones resulted in economic damage of over US$ 4.6 billion. Analysis of the deaths and damage associated with tropical cyclones in AD 1970, AD 1991 and AD 2007 indicates that while the number of deaths decreased between events, economic damage and the number of people made homeless increased. There are positive and significant correlations between increasing storm surge height and increasing human fatalities (r = 0.60, p < 0.01) and increasing human injuries and greater wind speed (r = 0.45, p < 0.01). Despite our best efforts, the catalogue is incomplete. As such, we suggest further deep' archival research coupled with regional geological studies of palaeostorm events to gain a more sophisticated understanding of the hazard. Our results have implications for both risk assessment and disaster risk reduction.

Alam, E; Dominey-Howes, D

A new catalogue of tropical cyclones of the northern Bay of Bengal and the distribution and effects of selected landfalling events in Bangladesh

International Journal Of Climatology

https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4035

The official website of the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said more tropical cyclones (TCs) enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) than anywhere else in the world. With the average of 20 TCs per year, about eight (8) or nine (9) of them are crossing the Philippines. The peak of the typhoon season is July through October, when nearly 70% of all typhoons develop (http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/climate/tropical-cyclone-information). Based on the report of the Asian Disaster Reduction Center (ADRC), five of the typhoons that visit the country are destructive and being situated in the Pacific Ring of Fire makes the country vulnerable to frequent earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Its geographical location and physical environment also contribute to its high susceptibility to tsunami, sea-level rise, storm surges, landslides, flash/flood/flooding, and drought (https://www.adrc.asia/nationinformation.php?Nation-Code = 608&Lang = en). For the past years, some typhoons that visited the country brought serious damages and kill many Filipinos by floods and landslides. The researcher comes up with the idea of assessing the aftermath of 2020 typhoons that visited the country. The data used by the researcher were collected from different sources, namely NDRRMC (National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council), PAGASA, social media and other websites. The result of the study reveals that the most destructive typhoon in 2020 that caused huge damage on the infrastructure and agriculture is Ulysses followed by Rolly, Quinta, Ambo, Vicky, Pepito, Ofel, and Marce. Most of the affected areas are those nearer to water bodies, surrounded by mountains with few trees to absorb a huge amount of water and situated in the low-lying areas. (C) 2021 The Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communication Co. Ltd.

Santos, GD

2020 tropical cyclones in the Philippines: A review

Tropical Cyclone Research And Review

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.09.003

The Indian Himalayan region (IHR) is prone to multiple hazards and suffersgreat loss of life and damage to infrastructure and property every year.Poor engineering construction, unplanned and unregulated development, andrelatively low awareness and capacity in communities for supporting disasterrisk mitigation are directly and indirectly contributing to the risk andseverity of disasters. A comprehensive review of various existing survey forms for risk assessmenthas found that the survey questionnaires themselves have not been designedor optimised, specifically, for hill communities. Hill communities aredistinctly different from low-land communities, with distinctcharacteristics and susceptibility to specific hazard and risk scenarios.Previous studies have, on the whole, underrepresented the specificcharacteristics of hill communities, and the increasing threat of naturaldisasters in the IHR creates an imperative to design hill-specificquestionnaires for multi-hazard risk assessment. The main objective of this study is to design and apply a hill-specific riskassessment survey form that contains more accurate information for hillcommunities and hill-based infrastructure and allows for the surveys to becompleted efficiently and in less time. The proposed survey form isdescribed herein and is validated through a pilot survey at severallocations in the hills of Uttarakhand, India. The survey form covers datarelated to vulnerability to earthquake (rapid visual screening), flood,high wind, landslide, industrial, non-structural falling hazards and fire hazards in the building, and climate change. SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis of this study states that the proposed form has the advantages of being self-explanatory and pictorial, includes easy terminology, and is divided into various sections for better understanding by surveyors. This survey form has the weakness of being limited to specific hazards. There are opportunities for the form to be applied to other Himalayan countries like Bhutan, Nepal and Pakistan. When it is applied internationally, the options available in the questions may differ. The application process confirmed that the survey questionnaire performedwell and met expectations in its application. The form is readilytransferrable to other locations in the IHR and could be internationalisedand used throughout the Himalayas.

Chouhan, S; Mukherjee, M

Design and application of a multi-hazard risk rapid assessment questionnaire for hill communities in the Indian Himalayan region

Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are causing unprecedented changes to the climate. In 2015, at the United Nations (UN) Conference of the Parties in Paris, France, countries agreed to limit the global mean temperature (GMT) increase to 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C. Due to the long-term irreversibility of sea level rise (SLR), risks to island and coastal populations are not well encapsulated by the goal of limiting GMT warming by 2100. This review article investigates the climate justice implications of temperature targets in light of our increasing understanding of the spatially variable impact and long temporal commitment to rising seas. In particular we highlight the impact that SLR will have on island states and the role of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in UN climate negotiations. As a case study we review dual impacts from the Antarctic Ice Sheet under a changing climate: (a) recent climate and ice sheet modeling shows that Antarctic melt has the potential to cause rapid SLR with a distinct spatial pattern leading to AOSIS nations experiencing SLR at least 11% higher than the global average and up to 33% higher; and (b) future ice sheet melt will result in a negative feedback on GMT, thus delaying temperature rise. When considering these impacts in conjunction, justice concerns associated with the Paris Agreement are exacerbated. Plain Language Summary At the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015, countries adopted a target for stabilizing climate change defined by how the rise in global average air temperature has increased relative to a pre-industrial baseline (1850-1900). Prior research has identified numerous climate justice implications associated with this approach. This study reviews climate justice issues associated with Paris Agreement temperature targets, finding that using air temperature by 2100 as the main metric does not adequately capture other climate risks, particularly sea level rise (SLR) faced by island and coastal communities. We introduce a new climate justice consideration based on the simultaneous impacts of SLR and slowed warming caused by ice loss on Antarctica. Slowed warming might appear to delay the need for climate action, but a focus on end-of-century temperature misses the impacts of long-term accelerating SLR.

Sadai, S; Spector, RA; DeConto, R; Gomez, N

The Paris Agreement and Climate Justice: Inequitable Impacts of Sea Level Rise Associated With Temperature Targets

Earths Future

https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002940

Non-technical summary Many conservation initiatives call for 'transformative change' to counter biodiversity loss, climate change, and injustice. The term connotes fundamental, broad, and durable changes to human relationships with nature. However, if oversimplified or overcomplicated, or not focused enough on power and the political action necessary for change, associated initiatives can perpetuate or exacerbate existing crises. This article aims to help practitioners deliberately catalyze and steer transformation processes. It provides a theoretically and practically grounded definition of 'transformative conservation', along with six strategic, interlocking recommendations. These cover systems pedagogy, political mobilization, inner transformation, as well as planning, action, and continual adjustment. Technical summary Calls for 'transformative change' point to the fundamental reorganization necessary for global conservation initiatives to stem ecological catastrophe. However, the concept risks being oversimplified or overcomplicated, and focusing too little on power and the political action necessary for change. Accordingly, its intersection with contemporary biodiversity and climate change mitigation initiatives needs explicit deliberation and clarification. This article advances the praxis of 'transformative conservation' as both (1) a desired process that rethinks the relationships between individuals, society, and nature, and restructures systems accordingly, and (2) a desired outcome that conserves biodiversity while justly transitioning to net zero emission economies and securing the sustainable and regenerative use of natural resources. It first reviews criticisms of area-based conservation targets, natural climate solutions, and nature-based solutions that are framed as transformative, including issues of ecological integrity, livelihoods, gender, equity, growth, power, participation, knowledge, and governance. It then substantiates six strategic recommendations designed to help practitioners deliberately steer transformation processes. These include taking a systems approach; partnering with political movements to achieve equitable and just transformation; linking societal with personal ('inner') transformation; updating how we plan; facilitating shifts from diagnosis and planning to action; and improving our ability to adjust to transformation as it occurs. Social media summary Curious about stemming the global biodiversity and climate crises? Browse this article on transformative conservation!

Fougères, D; Jones, M; McElwee, PD; Andrade, A; Edwards, SR

Transformative conservation of ecosystems

Global Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2022.4

Purpose - This paper aims to contribute to adaptation research by devising a systematic method for examining the challenges in mainstreaming climate change adaptation (CCA) into local land use planning. It argues that mainstreaming operationalization necessitates a methodology that focuses on the challenges in applying the approach and an analytical framework that can examine the mainstreaming process from an institutional perspective. Design/methodology/approach - This paper applied triangulation by data method (i.e. document review, interview, survey and key informant consultations) and incorporated the scorecard approach in developing the four-stage mixed methodology. It used a modified Institutional Analysis and Development framework as primary analytical guide and applied the case study methodology for structure and focus in relation to data collection activities. Findings - This paper devised the four-stage mixed methodology and successfully applied it in examining the challenges in mainstreaming CCA into local land use planning in Albay, Philippines. Using the methodology, this paper developed 20 quantitative mainstreaming indicators and generated qualitative analyses to assess the state of play of the challenges in local mainstreaming of CCA. Results suggest that mainstreaming challenges exist within a certain spectrum, with one end composed of barriers to, and the other, opportunities for CCA. Furthermore, the challenges occur at varying degrees of severity depending on the conditions that surround them. Research limitations/implications - This paper is limited to illustrating the process involved in developing the four-stage mixed methodology and presents only a brief discussion of the quantitative and qualitative results. Practical implications - Although the methodology is at its initial stages of development, it generated results that can help analysts, planners and decision-makers: determine the nature of the challenges in mainstreaming CCA, thereby understand the mainstreaming process; prioritize the mainstreaming challenges to address; and design strategies that will maximize the use of limited resources (i.e. utilizing the opportunities to overcome the existing barriers), among others. Originality/value - The four-stage mixed methodology was developed to aid analysts, planners and decision-makers determine the state-of-play of the challenges in mainstreaming CCA and make informed decisions in overcoming these challenges. Thus, the mixed method can be a useful tool in advancing the operationalization of the mainstreaming approach.

Cuevas, SC; Peterson, A; Morrison, T; Robinson, C

Methodology for examining the challenges in mainstreaming climate change adaptation

International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-07-2015-0091

Energy is known as the lifeline of national development, and from the last decade or so, the security of human energy supply has been frequently disturbed by natural disasters due to global warming and frequent geological activities. In this paper, by combing the literature, we found that the past literature on the relationship between energy and natural disasters mainly focused on measuring energy consumption under natural disasters, but less on the integrated evaluation of human economic activities, energy security and natural disasters, and less on the evaluation of the energy governance efficiency of each provincial, municipal, and autonomous region government in preventing and managing exposure to natural disasters from the perspective of Chinese provinces. Therefore, in order to fill the gap in the literature in this field, this paper collects panel data of energy consumption efficiency stages and natural disaster treatment stages from 2013 to 2017 for 30 provinces in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan as well as Tibet Autonomous Region) and uses the two-stage undesirable dynamic DDF model as a framework to study the relationship between economic, environmental pollution and natural disasters for the sample data and to analyze the phase-by-phase evaluation of energy and natural disaster efficiency and make corresponding policy recommendations. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) The overall efficiency of China's eastern coastal provinces is higher than that of the central and western provinces. (2) The first-stage efficiency of Chinese provinces is better than the second stage, and the difference in efficiency of the first stage of each province is smaller than that of the second stage. (3) In terms of the efficiency of disaster prevention and relief inputs, the efficiency values are generally lower in most regions of China. (4) Finally, the annual efficiency of natural disaster losses is not high in all regions, and the efficiency values are higher in the eastern coastal regions than in the central and western regions. Accordingly, this paper proposes that each province should formulate relevant disaster prevention and economic development strategies according to regional characteristics, while the central government should also propose locally appropriate coordinated governance policies to effectively control carbon dioxide emissions and air pollution, as well as increase disaster prevention publicity and incorporate disaster prevention education-related work into the performance assessment mechanism of local governments to promote the interactive development of the two.

Fang, Z; Chiu, YH; Lin, TY; Chang, TH; Lin, YN

Analysis of natural disasters and energy efficiency in China

Environment Development And Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-03182-4

Beginning in response to the disastrous drought of 1968-73, considerable research and monitoring have focused on the characteristics, causes, predictability, and impacts of West African Soudano-Sahel (10degrees-18degreesN) rainfall variability and drought. While these efforts have generated substantial information on a range of these topics, very little is known of the extent to which communities, activities at risk, and policy makers are aware of, have access to, or use such information. This situation has prevailed despite Glantz's provocative BAMS paper on the use and value of seasonal forecasts for the Sahel more than a quarter century ago. We now provide a systematic reevaluation of these issues based on questionnaire responses of 566 participants (in 13 communities) and 26 organizations in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Nigeria. The results reveal that rural inhabitants have limited access to climate information, with nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) being the most important source. Moreover, the pathways for information flow are generally weakly connected and informal. As a result, utilization of the results of climate research is very low to nonexistent, even by organizations responsible for managing the effects of climate variability. Similarly, few people have access to seasonal climate forecasts, although the vast majority expressed a willingness to use such information when it becomes available. Those respondents with access expressed great enthusiasm and satisfaction with seasonal forecasts. The results suggest that inhabitants of the Soudano-Sahel savanna are keen for changes that improve their ability to cope with climate variability, but the lack of information on alternative courses of action is a major constraint. Our study, thus, essentially leaves unchanged both Glantz's negative tentative conclusion and more positive preliminary assessment of 25 years ago. Specifically, while many of the infrastructural deficiencies and socioeconomic impediments remain, the great yearning for climate information by Soudano-Sahalians suggests that the time is finally ripe for fostering increased use. Therefore, a simple model for improved dissemination of climate research and seasonal climate forecast information is proposed. The tragedy is that a quarter century has passed since Glantz's clarion call.

Tarhule, A; Lamb, PJ

Climate research and seasonal forecasting for West Africans - Perceptions, dissemination, and use?

Bulletin Of The American Meteorological Society

https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-84-12-1741

Individual events can trigger systemic risks in many complex systems, from natural to man-made. Yet, analysts are still usually treating these two types of risks separately. We suggest that, rather, individual risks and systemic risks represent two ends of a continuum and therefore should not be analyzed in isolation, but in an integrative manner. Such a perspective can further be related to the notion of resilience and opens up options for developing an integrated framework for increasing the resilience of systems to both types of risks simultaneously. Systemic risks are sometimes called network risks to emphasize the importance of inter-linkages, while, in contrast, individual risks originate from individual events that directly affect an agent and happen independently from the rest of the system. The two different perspectives on risk have major implications for strategies aiming at increasing resilience, and we, therefore, discuss how such strategies differ between individual risks and systemic risks. In doing so, we suggest that for individual risks, a risk-layering approach can be applied, using probability distributions and their associated measures. Following the risk-layering approach, agents can identify their own tipping points, i.e., the points in their loss distributions at which their operation would fail, and on this basis determine the most appropriate measures for decreasing their risk of such failures. This approach can rely on several well-established market-based instruments, including insurance and portfolio diversification. To deal with systemic risks, these individual tipping points need to be managed in their totality, because system collapses are triggered by individual failures. An additional and complementary approach is to adjust the network structure of the system, which determines how individual failures can cascade and generate systemic risks. Instead of one-size-fits-all rules of thumb, we suggest that the management of systemic risks should be based on a careful examination of a system's risk landscape. Especially a node-criticality approach, which aims to induce a network restructuring based on the differential contributions of nodes to systemic risk may be a promising way forward toward an integrated framework. Hence, we argue that tailor-made transformational approaches are needed, which take into account the specificities of a system's network structure and thereby push it toward safer configurations for both individual risks and systemic risks.

Hochrainer-Stigler, S; Colon, C; Boza, G; Poledna, S; Rovenskaya, E; Dieckmann, U

Enhancing resilience of systems to individual and systemic risk: Steps toward an integrative framework

International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101868

Due to the cumulative effects of rapid urbanization, population growth and climate change, many inland and coastal water bodies around the world are experiencing severe water pollution. To help make land-use and climate change adaptation policies more effective at a local scale, this study used a combination of participatory approaches and computer simulation modeling. This methodology (called the Participatory Watershed Land-use Management (PWLM) approach) consist of four major steps: (a) Scenario analysis, (b) impact assessment, (c) developing adaptation and mitigation measures and its integration in local government policies, and (d) improvement of land use plan. As a test case, we conducted PWLM in the Santa Rosa Sub-watershed of the Philippines, a rapidly urbanizing area outside Metro Manila. The scenario analysis step involved a participatory land-use mapping activity (to understand future likely land-use changes), as well as GCM precipitation and temperature data downscaling (to understand the local climate scenarios). For impact assessment, the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool was used to simulate future river water quality (BOD and E. coli) under a Business as Usual (BAU) scenario and several alternative future scenarios considering different drivers and pressures (to 2030). Water samples from the Santa Rosa River in 2015 showed that BOD values ranged from 13 to 52 mg/L; indicating that the river is already moderately to extremely polluted compared to desirable water quality (class B). In the future scenarios, we found that water quality will deteriorate further by 2030 under all scenarios. Population growth was found to have the highest impact on future water quality deterioration, while climate change had the lowest (although not negligible). After the impact assessment, different mitigation measures were suggested in a stakeholder consultation workshop, and of them (enhanced capacity of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), and increased sewerage connection rate) were adopted to generate a final scenario including countermeasures. The main benefit of the PWLM approach are its high level of stakeholder involvement (through co-generation of the research) and use of free (for developing countries) software and models, both of which contribute to an enhanced science-policy interface.

Kumar, P; Johnson, BA; Dasgupta, R; Avtar, R; Chakraborty, S; Kawai, M; Magcale-Macandog, DB

Participatory Approach for More Robust Water Resource Management: Case Study of the Santa Rosa Sub-Watershed of the Philippines

Water

https://doi.org/10.3390/w12041172

Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate-change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and those who argue that the unknowns in the Earth system are too large to justify such early action. This paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in terms of its potential implications for society, focusing on the UK and northwest Europe in particular. The nature of abrupt climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are examined. Using the example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC), the suggested implications for society of abrupt climate change are reviewed; previous work has been largely speculative and has generally considered the implications only from economic and ecological perspectives. Some observations about the implications from a more social and behavioural science perspective are made. If abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in climate, the design of adaptation to climate change can proceed within the existing paradigm, with appropriate adjustments. Limits to adaptation in some sectors or regions may be reached, and the costs of appropriate adaptive behaviour may be large, but strategy can develop on the basis of a predicted long-term unidirectional change in climate. It would be more challenging, however, if abrupt climate change implied a directional change in climate, as, for example, may well occur in northwest Europe following a collapse of the THC. There are two fundamental problems for society associated with such an outcome: first, the future changes in climate currently being anticipated and prepared for may reverse and, second, the probability of such a scenario occurring remains fundamentally unknown. The implications of both problems for climate policy and for decision making have not been researched. It is premature to argue therefore that abrupt climate change-in the sense referred to here-imposes unacceptable costs on society or the world economy, represents a catastrophic impact of climate change or constitutes a dangerous change in climate that should be avoided at all reasonable cost. We conclude by examining the implications of this contention for future research and policy formation.

Hulme, M

Abrupt climate change: can society cope?

Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society Of London Series A-Mathematical Physical And Engineering Sciences

https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2003.1239

The 2015 Paris Agreement was adopted at the twenty-first session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In the run-up to COP 21, most UNFCCC Parties put forward intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs), containing mitigation pledges. These INDCs are now being confirmed as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), as governments formally ratify the Paris Agreement. NDCs are supposed to provide transparent, quantifiable, comparable, and verifiable mitigation objectives. However, there is neither methodological nor data consistency in the way Parties have prepared their NDCs. This article showcases recent collaboration among research, government, and private institutions that contributed to the Colombian NDC. While documenting the novel research, data, and rich web of collaboration that helped the Colombian government prepare the country's NDC, this article links this specific case with the challenges of policy-oriented and interactive models of research. Our experience confirms previous research on the importance of stakeholder interaction, transparency and openness of processes, and willingness to break disciplinary and institutional barriers. In addition, the experience points to the importance of having appropriate available resources and a local institution acting as champion for the project.POLICY RELEVANCEThe lack of methodological and data consistency in the way parties have prepared their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) can significantly slow down the progress toward limiting global warming below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. In the meantime, calls for scientists to provide usable' information are increasing and the importance of close collaboration between scientists, end-users, and stakeholders is also increasingly acknowledged. In this article we make explicit the process and research challenges faced during what was, in the authors' opinion, the successful collaboration among scientists, governmental, and private institutions that led to the formulation of an essential component of the Colombian NDC. As policy makers move forward with the implementation of their plans and as scientists become increasingly engaged with government planning, it is essential that they are aware of the needs and demands in terms of collaborations, data, resources, and type of results necessary to produce analyses that can be made fully public and can withstand international scrutiny.

De Pinto, A; Loboguerrero, AM; Londoño, M; Sanabria, KO; Castaño, RS

Informing climate policy through institutional collaboration: reflections on the preparation of Colombia's nationally determined contribution

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2017.1321521

Climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on our society, the economy and the environment. According to future scenarios, mountain regions are highly vulnerable to climate impacts, including changes in the water cycle (e.g. rainfall extremes, melting of glaciers, river runoff), loss of biodiversity and ecosystems services, damages to local economy (drinking water supply, hydropower generation, agricultural suitability) and human safety (risks of natural hazards). This is due to their exposure to recent climate warming (e.g. temperature regime changes, thawing of permafrost) and the high degree of specialization of both natural and human systems (e.g. mountain species, valley population density, tourism-based economy). These characteristics call for the application of risk assessment methodologies able to describe the complex interactions among multiple hazards, biophysical and socio-economic systems, towards climate change adaptation. Current approaches used to assess climate change risks often address individual risks separately and do not fulfil a comprehensive representation of cumulative effects associated to different hazards (i.e. compound events). Moreover, pioneering multi-layer single risk assessment (i.e. overlapping of single-risk assessments addressing different hazards) is still widely used, causing misleading evaluations of multi-risk processes. This raises key questions about the distinctive features of multi-risk assessments and the available tools and methods to address them. Here we present a review of five cutting-edge modelling approaches (Bayesian networks, agent-based models, system dynamic models, event and fault trees, and hybrid models), exploring their potential applications for multi-risk assessment and climate change adaptation in mountain regions. The comparative analysis sheds light on advantages and limitations of each approach, providing a roadmap for methodological and technical implementation of multi-risk assessment according to distinguished criteria (e.g. spatial and temporal dynamics, uncertainty management, cross-sectoral assessment, adaptation measures integration, data required and level of complexity). The results show limited applications of the selected methodologies in addressing the climate and risks challenge in mountain environments. In particular, system dynamic and hybrid models demonstrate higher potential for further applications to represent climate change effects on multi-risk processes for an effective implementation of climate adaptation strategies.

Terzi, S; Torresan, S; Schneiderbauer, S; Critto, A; Zebisch, M; Marcomini, A

Multi-risk assessment in mountain regions: A review of modelling approaches for climate change adaptation

Journal Of Environmental Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.11.100

Institutional capacity is one of the dimensions of adaptive capacity that determines the level and pace of climate change adaptation at the local level. Local governments are key actors in climate change adaptation because they have the responsibility to translate top-down risk information to vulnerable populations and can scale bottom-up initiatives of communities in adaptation planning. There is a need for integrated approaches for adaptive capacity building that incorporate specific capacities to tackle multiple climate risks and generic capacities to address basic needs for human development. In this analysis, we assess the institutional capacity profiles of local governments in Mexico through a cluster analysis to understand how different aspects of generic and specific capacities, which operate through bottom-up or top-down approaches, coincide in local governments. Our results show that local governments in Mexico can be grouped by type and level of institutional capacity, as follows: those that (1) engage in intergovernmental coordination; (2) focus on safety-first; (3) exhibit high capacities in transparency and citizen participation; and (4) are in a poverty trap. These groups reflect challenges for local governments in Mexico, including the need to resolve short-term crises, the lack of climate change awareness, and a low capacity to access and mobilize economic resources for adaptation. Conversely, horizontal and vertical coordination, transparency, and citizen participation are found to be key elements able to strengthen institutional capacities for adaptation. In the context of multiple climate risks and underdeveloped enabling conditions for adaptation, there is a need for strategic investment in capacities that are contextually relevant and that can reduce the adaptation gap for climate action in Mexico. Further analysis will be needed to evaluate how the mobilization of the institutional capacities by local governments in each group influences climate change adaptation outcomes, particularly differentiated for urban and rural contexts, as well as for metropolitan scales.Key policy insights- Local governments in Mexico are faced with the challenge of resolving urgent and short-term issues, making it difficult to face climate change adaptation. - Intergovernmental coordination is a key attribute that local governments can develop to address and overcome deficiencies in institutional capacities for climate change adaptation - Administrative capacity, transparency, accountability, and public participation are critical elements for local governments and will assist them to access and mobilize economic resources for climate change adaptation.

Cid, A; Lerner, AM

Local governments as key agents in climate change adaptation: challenges and opportunities for institutional capacity-building in Mexico

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2022.2163972

Agricultural livelihoods are resilient when capable of enduring and overcoming socio-environmental stressors. The Sustainable Livelihoods Approach, popularized in development programs, frequently targets farmer capacities to cope with and recover from loss and damage by (i) enhancing tangible capitals (e.g., ecological, financial) and/or by (ii) reducing socio-institutional constraints on entitlements and opportunities to access those capitals. While this two-pronged approach can reduce damage to production or expand the range of livelihood activities available to farmers, it often positions tangible capitals themselves as the central and objective means for building resilience. The recent social turn is a call to theorize resilience's intangible and non-material dimensions (e.g., subjective, emotive, and relational forms) as emergent from specific local social-cultural-ecological contexts. Drawing on in-depth field research with rice-farmers in a region of the Philippines experiencing water-related risks, we analyzed several situated intangible narrations of resilience, with a focus on emotive and affective indicators. Farmers narrated their courage to get back up following loss and damage as well as their optimism, faith, and hope for brighter futures in farming and in life. These emotions flowed from their affective relationships with the cosmos (naturalizing life's hardships as cyclical), themselves (strong belief in their own capabilities to persist in times of hardship), and the Divine (faith in God's power to protect hard-working families). Our results contribute to the social turn in resilience literature in two ways. First, we highlight affect and emotion as indicators of farm livelihood resilience. Second, we suggest narrations of resilience are constituted through farmers' particular worldings, or constructions of reality where knowledge, belief systems, and relations, are lived and enacted on an everyday basis. Situating oneself in local contexts can illuminate sources of intangible resilience otherwise hidden from top-down approaches, while engaging worldings can help render these intangible sources intelligible within their contexts. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Shah, SH; Angeles, LC; Harris, LM

Worlding the Intangibility of Resilience: The Case of Rice Farmers and Water-Related Risk in the Philippines

World Development

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.05.004

Introduction: Global consciousness on climate change problems and adaptation revolves around the disparity of information sharing and communication gap between theoretical scientific knowledge at academic end and practical implications of these at the vulnerable populations' end. Coastal communities facing socio-economic stress, like densely populated Sundarbans, are the most affected part of the world, exposed to climate change problems and uncertainties. This article explores the successes of a socio-environmental project implemented at Indian Sundarbans targeted towards economic improvement and aims at communicating environmental conservation through organized community participation. Case description: Participatory rural appraisal (PRA) and the wealth rank tool (WRT) were used to form a group based organization with 2100 vulnerable families to give them knowledge about capacity building, disaster management, resource conservation and sustainable agriculture practices. Training was conducted with the selected group members on resource conservation, institution building, alternative income generation activities (AIGA) like, Poultry, Small business, Tricycle van, Organic farming and disaster management in a participatory mode. The climate change 'problems-solutions' were communicated to this socio-economically marginalized and ostracized community through participatory educational theater (PET). Discussion and evaluation: WRT revealed that 45 % of the population was under economic stress. Out of 2100 beneficiaries', 1015 beneficiaries' started organic farming, 133 beneficiaries' adopted poultry instead of resource exploitive livelihood and 71 beneficiaries' engaged themselves with small business, which was the success stories of this project. To mitigate disaster, 10-committees were formed and the endemic knowledge about climate change was recorded by participatory method validated through survey by structured questionnaire. As a part of this project 87 ha of naked deforested mudflat was reclaimed with endangered mangroves involving target community members aimed to sequester CO2, control soil erosion and act as a barrier during natural disasters. Conclusion: This case study concluded that participatory method of communication, aiming not only to communicate theoretical knowledge, but also to devise adaptation strategies through conservation of endemic knowledge, popularizing sustainability through Micro Finance Institutions and promoting AIGA along with motivating vulnerable community to restore degraded forest lands, could be a effective solution to practically combat climate change problems.

Chowdhury, A; Maiti, SK; Bhattacharyya, S

How to communicate climate change 'impact and solutions' to vulnerable population of Indian Sundarbans? From theory to practice

Springerplus

https://doi.org/10.1186/s40064-016-2816-y

The north-eastern haor (wetland) area of Bangladesh is extremely vulnerable to flash flooding which damages crops, property, and infrastructures. The main objective of this research is to develop and test a methodology for delineation of flash flood hazard zones in the north-eastern haor (wetland) region of Bangladesh which would help to identify and prepare against the flash flood. After reviewing relevant literature, multiple indicators and indexes including slope, soil type, rainfall, land use land cover, drainage density, distance from the river, normalized difference vegetation index, topographic wetness index, and digital elevation model were used to assess the flood susceptibility in the study region. The Landsat 8 images and data from other secondary sources are used in AHP and GIS platforms to obtain the results. The findings show that among the seven haor districts, the susceptibility of flood hazard differs significantly. Significant areas from Brahmanbaria, Kishoreganj, Netrokona, Sunamganj district have been emerged as highly susceptible to flash flood hazard. About 756,970 ha areas were identified as high flood-prone areas. The other three haor districts such as Habiganj, Moulavibazar, and Sylhet are less susceptible to flash floods. About 255,587-ha areas were identified as low flood-prone. Model validity was tested through receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve. In the ROC curve, the area under the curve (AUC) is 0.839 which means the model's predictive power is 84%. Similarly, the Wilcoxon signed rank test and the Friedman test also show that the model is valid. Furthermore, the correlation analysis between flood hazard map and inundation map (based on 2017s flood) was also performed where a moderately good R-2 value (0.72) was obtained which means the susceptibility map has delineated the flood-prone areas correctly in 73% of cases. In the changing scenario of climate, the risk of flash floods might increase even more. Therefore, the findings could help the policymakers and planners in developing a preparedness system that would limit the property loss and wealth in the north-eastern haor region of Bangladesh.

Haque, MN; Siddika, S; Sresto, MA; Saroar, MM; Shabab, KR

Geo-spatial Analysis for Flash Flood Susceptibility Mapping in the North-East Haor (Wetland) Region in Bangladesh

Earth Systems And Environment

https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00221-w

As in many other parts of the world, the urban areas of the South Asian region are increasingly expanding. While cities today are the heart of commercial, technological and social development, they are also vulnerable to a variety of natural and anthropogenic threats. The complex urban infrastructure, and the ever-expanding population in cities, exacerbate the impacts of climate change and increase the risk of natural hazards. Throughout history, various hydrological disasters including floods, tidal surges, and droughts, and non-hydrological disasters such as earthquakes, landslides, and storms have led to catastrophic social, economic and environmental impacts in numerous South Asian cities. Disaster risk reduction is therefore central to ensure sustainability in urban areas. Although Nature-based Solutions (NbS) are identified as a promising strategy to reduce risk and increase resilience, there appears to be a lack of evidence-based approaches. NbS are measures that can be practiced to obtain benefits of nature for the environmental and community development through conserving, managing, and restoring ecosystems. Against this backdrop, the South Asian cities provide opportunities to evaluate capacities for achieving Nature-based Resilience (NbR) through NbS. This study documents insights from five cities of five different countries of the South Asian region which are subjected to a wide array of disasters: Barishal (Bangladesh), Phuentsholing (Bhutan), Gurugram (India), Kathmandu (Nepal), and Colombo (Sri Lanka). The primary objective of this study is to provide evidence on how NbS are being practiced. Thus, some success stories in cities under consideration are highlighted: restoration of natural canals through integrated development plans and community participation (Barishal), concepts of Gross National Happiness (GNH) and minimal nature interventions (Phuentsholing), Greening cities'' including eco-corridors, vegetation belts, biodiversity parks (Gurugram), proper land use planning aims at different disasters (Kathmandu), and wetland restoration and management with multiple benefits (Colombo). These cases could therefore, act as a proxy for learning from each other to prepare for and recover from future disasters while building NbR.

Mukherjee, M; Wickramasinghe, D; Chowdhooree, I; Chimi, C; Poudel, S; Mishra, B; Ali, ZF; Shaw, R

Nature-Based Resilience: Experiences of Five Cities from South Asia

International Journal Of Environmental Research And Public Health

https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191911846

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the urban resilience capacity and its relations with the economic, social and environmental well-being in smart cities in the state of Sao Paulo (SP), particularly after the 2008 financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach Concerning its objectives, this study is characterized as descriptive. From the point of view of technical procedures, the research is bibliographic, and regarding data collection, it is documental. The approach of this research is quantitative, since it uses the statistical method. The sample was made up by 62 smart cities located in SP. The analysis comprised the period from 2010 to 2015. Findings The urban resilience pillars influence the economic well-being represented by the gross national product, in 58.8 percent, social well-being represented by the life expectancy of the residents of the smart cities, in 71.7 percent, and in environmental well-being indicated by CO2 emissions, in 21.5 percent. Research limitations/implications - They are related to the researchers' decision about the methodological design. Practical implications - This study was limited to smart cities in SP listed in the RBCIH (Brazilian Network of Human Smart Cities), and may be extended to other cities in other Brazilian states. Social implications - How resilience dimensions related to economic, social and environmental well-being such as poverty, food security, health, well-being, education quality, climate changes, and the like, were measured, which can be investigated in future research studies. Research limitations/implications - They are related to the researchers' decision about the methodological design. Practical implications - This study was limited to smart cities in SP listed in the RBCIH (Brazilian Network of Human Smart Cities), and may be extended to other cities in other Brazilian states. Social implications - How resilience dimensions related to economic, social and environmental well-being such as poverty, food security, health, well-being, education quality, climate changes, and the like, were measured, which can be investigated in future research studies. Originality/value Despite its growing popularity worldwide, the urban resilience pillars and their relationship with human well-being in smart cities in the national context are little investigated, making this research original.

da Silva, CA; dos Santos, EA; Maier, SM; da Rosa, FS

Urban resilience and sustainable development policies An analysis of smart cities in the state of Sao Paulo

Rege-Revista De Gestao

https://doi.org/10.1108/REGE-12-2018-0117

In today's world, most cities face physical threats posed by climate change. These threats create environmental hazards, along with urban problems resulting from rapid urbanization and fast growth of cities. Unplanned urbanization causes the formulation of marginalized urban communities. According to a UnHabitat report (2014), those groups are most vulnerable and most likely to suffer from disasters. The vulnerability of such population is an alarming problem with major social, environmental, and economic consequences. This issue has received significant consideration in climate change and disaster management research. The social vulnerability of communities is attributable to multiple indicators such as high levels of poverty, inequality, and problems relating to unemployment, housing, and access to basic civic amenities like safe drinking water and sanitation. This research aims at analysing the social vulnerability of Alexandria city. It reviews and implements several methods for selecting and aggregating vulnerability indicators. This aggregation process that captures multiple aspects of socio-spatial vulnerability in a single index or a small number of variables can produce thematic maps that act as powerful visual tools to identify those areas most susceptible to suffer from environmental changes. This study follows a structured framework to firstly describe the process of developing a social vulnerability index (SoVI), from 14 variables using two different methods. Secondly, it analyses the spatial patterns of the developed composite SoVI at the neighbourhood ``Shyakha level using ArcMap geographic information systems (GIS). The results demonstrate that the distribution of social vulnerability is not equal along Alexandria city. Most of the city is categorized to have relatively medium vulnerability level, while few areas are regarded as highly vulnerable ``hot spots and other areas are regarded as low vulnerable ``cold spots. Finally, based on the interpretation of the developed index and the deep examination of the characteristics of those vulnerable areas, the study offers guidelines to promote resilient development of most vulnerable areas. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams University. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-ncnd/4.0/).

Waly, NM; Ayad, HM; Saadallah, DM

Engineering Assessment of spatiotemporal patterns of social vulnerability: A tool to resilient urban development Alexandria, Egypt

Ain Shams Engineering Journal

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asej.2020.07.025

Humans describe the natural environment on the basis of their local experience and their interactions with nature in terms of its relevance to their daily lives. These descriptions are incorporated into local languages and form a specialized terminology that is unique and specifically applicable to needs and practices. In Guovdageaidnu (Kautokeino), Northern Norway, snow covers the ground more than seven months of the year in winter. Therefore, snow defines most of the conditions which must be met to support Sami reindeer pastoralism. Snow is a prerequisite for mobility, tracking, visibility and availability of pasture plants. The terms used to describe the snow on the ground include characteristics needed to communicate snow properties relevant to reindeer herding. In this paper, traditional Sami snow terms and their definitions are compared with the scientific and physical classification of snow on the ground. The study of traditional Sami snow terms was carried out through historical documentation and interviews with reindeer herders. The results showed that many traditional Sami terms describe snow conditions as they are defined by the international standard; whereas, other traditional terms describe the physical processes leading up to certain snow conditions. A group of snow terms have as their main purpose the clear communication of the snow conditions for reindeer herding to serve as a tool for internal communication within the herding community. A major finding was the herders' snow knowledge which was more holistic and integrated into the ecology of the herd and pastures than the international standard snow terms. The richness and relevance to reindeer herders of Sami traditional snow terms show a distinctly different view of snow compared to the purely physically-based international classifications. This paper gives an overview of the most important traditional terms, their definitions, and the physical processes associated with those terms. Application of the terms was compared to local weather conditions and the physical processes that created the different snow conditions. The analysis underscores the richness and accuracy of Sami snow terminology. In addition, this study illustrates the importance of using traditional Sami terminology when developing adaptation strategies to future climate change for Sami reindeer herding emphasizing the importance of two ways of knowing. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Eira, IMG; Jaedicke, C; Magga, OH; Maynard, NG; Vikhamar-Schuler, D; Mathiesen, SD

Traditional Sami snow terminology and physical snow classification-Two ways of knowing

Cold Regions Science And Technology

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2012.09.004

CONTEXT: Rainfall shocks pose a threat to farmers in rural West Africa especially in the wake of the recurrent climate variability and its impacts on agricultural production. Despite the harm they pose, limited empirical studies exist on the welfare implications of rainfall shocks on farmers' welfare in West Africa. In addition, the potential impacts of rainfall induced commodity and labor market failures have not been given much attention in the empirical literature. OBJECTIVE: Our study aimed to analyze the impact of negative rainfall shocks and commodity and labor market failures on farm households' welfare in northern Ghana. Examining the impact of commodity and labor market failures amidst the experience of a negative rainfall shock helps to identify the possible entry points through which the adverse impacts of rainfall deficits may be reduced. METHODS: The study is based on a household survey data from the Africa Rising program, historical daily climate data from the CCAFS-Climate data portal and random rainfall distributions from Monte Carlo simulation. A total of 1168 households were considered in the analysis. We analyze the impact of rainfall shocks and the above-mentioned entitlement failures using a static optimization model that incorporates a crop yield response function. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: We found that an increase in the frequency of negative rainfall shocks under a dry future with and without entitlement failures would impact negatively on the total income and consumption levels of both the asset non-poor and asset poor households in the study area. The asset poor households would however bear the brunt of the impact, and the anticipated impact would mostly be yielded through changes in agricultural incomes and expenditure on food purchases. With increasing risk of dry rainfall conditions, total incomes of farmers could decrease by 7.3% to 45.5%. It was found that ignoring potential failures in commodity and labor markets lead to over/underestimation of the impacts of major rainfall deficits on the different types of farmers. The impact of rainfall shocks on the welfare of farmers is scenario and cluster dependent. SIGNIFICANCE: The results have significance for policy formulation and future research. The findings from this study indicate a need for targeting and acknowledgement of the differential impacts of climate shocks on the different farmer groups. Efforts made in future research to incorporate entitlement failures in climate impact studies could produce more informative guide for effective policy formulation.

Boansi, D; Owusu, V; Tambo, JA; Donkor, E; Asante, BO

Rainfall shocks and household welfare: Evidence from northern Ghana

Agricultural Systems

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103267

Purpose Vulnerability is understood as susceptibility to hazards born out of the complex interaction within the system scales. The current global economic system focuses on persistent growth and a top-down approach to wealth distribution, which not only puts a strain on the Earth's resources but also on communities by increasing vulnerability. Localised economy, on the other hand, uses a bottom-up approach to wealth distribution, whereby local resources are harnessed for sustainability of the local economy. Localising economies facilitate degrowth by shifting our focus to the quality of economies and the redefinition of growth and prosperity. The purpose of this study is to highlight the potentials of localisation and degrowth for vulnerability reduction. Design/methodology/approach In this study, the authors conducted a case study of the Lyttelton community in New Zealand, their local initiatives and how these efforts have been used to build capacities and reduce vulnerabilities in the community. Data were sourced from both primary and secondary sources. Primary data were sourced through observation of the day-to-day running of the community and interviews with community members, while secondary data were sourced from existing literature on the community and related concepts. Findings Lyttelton community provides a good example of a community where bottom-up initiatives are particularly felt, and there is very limited dependence on the conventional economic system to solve their problems. The study shows that degrowth initiatives within the community have gained momentum because initiators see the value in their coming together as a community and doing what is right for themselves and the environment. Furthermore, localisation fosters innovation, personal growth and development and care for the environment. Originality/value This paper contributes to the existing knowledge by discussing some local initiatives that serve an underlying purpose for degrowth based on a study carried out in Lyttelton, New Zealand. The study findings established that there is need for more focus on sensitisation about the risks of growth mania and the potential for degrowth in bringing about actual prosperity, for saving the environment and disaster risk reduction. Also, the encouragement of local production and existing institutions like the timebank, which give members access to the needed resources and skills contribute to vulnerability reduction.

Ajulo, OM; von Meding, J; Tang, PR

Relocalisation for degrowth and disaster risk reduction

Disaster Prevention And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/DPM-01-2020-0012

Local or traditional agri-food systems in the Andes depend on community land use planning to maintain the genetic pool of crops and landraces in the face of disease, disasters, and climate change. These systems are managed integrally and on the basis of traditional knowledge around soil conservation, water management and maintaining biodiversity. At the same time, agri-food system research, policy and programming exhibit a limited understanding of local or traditional systems planning and community and cultural contexts. In policy and programming, the treatment of communities as homogenous groups overlooks heterogeneity in local identities, which is reflected for example in different access and use of traditional knowledge among men and women and forms of community organization and customs. The purpose of this article is to respond to this gap by shedding light on the intersecting identities of Andean farmers-peasant women and men-that contribute to the sustainability and resilience of local agri-food systems. Our focus is on intersecting identities and planning processes in particular. We detail the nature and cultural components that make up local agri-food systems in the Andean region and identify policy gaps around identities. To do this, we draw on intersectional feminist thinking, socio-ecological systems and resilience thinking to apply an intersectional lens to the study of planning processes in several Andean communities. Findings identify contributions around soil conservation, biodiversity upkeep, water management, and communal or cultural practices that are shaped by peasant's intersecting identities and their interactions within social-ecological systems. Findings illustrate the importance of multiple social locations, relations, and structures of power, including but not limited to gender, but other categories such as age and ethnicity for the delivery of equitable resilience. We formulate some initial recommendations so that national approaches and interventions better reflect the diversity of Andean people's identities and the way these affect relationships with socio-ecological systems in national and public planning. In particular, we suggest there may be value in exploring further the potential of rights-based approaches for enhancing equitable resilience in Andean agri-food systems. This article should be of interest to academics and practitioners in planning working around local or traditional food systems.

Sarapura-Escobar, S; Hoddy, ET

Safeguarding the land to secure food in the highlands of Peru: The case of Andean peasant producers

Frontiers In Sustainable Food Systems

https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2022.787600

Under the current resilience development framework, which is mainly based on urban communities, it is difficult to meet the needs of the vulnerable populations in poor villages. This article aims to explore a specific and operable guidance framework suitable for the resilient development of Chinese poor villages after disasters from the perspective of social equity. The framework will help guide the sustainable development of poor villages after disasters and also provide a reference for the resilience of other similar vulnerable areas. When integrating climate change response and disaster risk management to explore sustainable development in poor villages, the essence is to explore the resilience development framework focused on the construction of resilient communities in poor villages. We take the recovery and reconstruction of poor villages after the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 as an example. Through the analysis of the effects of post-disaster recovery and reconstruction, we found that although poor communities have made significant achievements since the earthquake, there are still many aspects that need to be improved, including social life systems, economic production systems, and natural ecosystems. Therefore, we comprehensively analyzed the characteristics of poor socio-economic conditions, the complex ecological environment, and the low cultural level of residents in poor villages. Furthermore, this study followed the principle of Build back better (BBB) and conducted an in-depth study of the framework for the resilience of poor villages. In terms of risk reduction, it is recommended to improve structural resilience from guarantee of preferential prices and selection of environmentally friendly materials, avoid risk and villagers' participation in the formulation of general plans, and promote disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities from risk prediction and curriculum development. In terms of community recovery, it is suggested to promote community economics and victims' livelihoods by promoting industrial transformation and sustainable livelihoods and promote social and psychological health development from social relations and psychological rehabilitation. In terms of efficient implementation, specific improvements include the improvement of public participation systems and the establishment of coordination offices and sound institutional mechanisms, the development of community standards and the introduction of financial support policies, the improvement of laws and regulations, and the improvement of monitoring and evaluation from dynamic monitoring and mass satisfaction surveys. It is important to guide the sustainable development of vulnerable communities by constructing a post-disaster resistant development framework based on BBB principles.

Zhao, L; He, FN; Zhao, CS

A Framework of Resilience Development for Poor Villages after the Wenchuan Earthquake Based on the Principle of Build Back Better

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su12124979

The Himalaya is often referred to as forested landscape, which provides a range of ecosystem services vital for sustaining life of billions of people. The region is recognized amongst the 35 global biodiversity hotspots for its unique and rich biodiversity. Also, the region is highly vulnerable to perturbations due to anthropogenic disturbances and climate change. Especially the forests in the region are subject to stress from such perturbations. The higher dependency of communities on forests and changing climate has impacts on structure and function of forest ecosystems. This has severe implications for forest dependent communities. Therefore, vulnerability assessment of forests is urgently needed to understand the likely consequences of these changes and responses. Such information would help in developing better management and conservation planning. Earlier studies on vulnerability assessment of forests and forest-dependent people have failed to acknowledge the importance of spatial and temporal aspects of vulnerability investigated through field based observations. Realizing this, present study focuses on forest vulnerability assessment through field based observations along an altitudinal gradient (700-3400 m) in the Indian west Himalaya. This study, for the first time, provides vulnerability assessment of community forests at local scale following integrated approach of multiple indicators across diverse domains. The vulnerability indicators have been identified through a systematic analysis and extensive review of the available literature. A total of 14 indicators in six domains (viz. forest, climate, anthropogenic, topographic, soil and management practices) were identified to assess inherent vulnerability of Community Forests (Van Panchayats) in the target region. Furthermore, Forest Vulnerability Index (FVI) was calculated by integrating the selected indicators across domains. The results revealed high vulnerability at low altitude (< 1200 m) forests. Disturbance index, expansion of invasive species and people dependency has emerged as the major factors responsible for forest vulnerability in the region. The value of FVI declined significantly (R-2 = 0.51, p < 0.001) with increasing altitude range. The study also analysed perceptions of inhabitant community regarding dependency on forest resources, management practices and status of community forest in the studied area. The outcomes of this study would help in developing management interventions and strategies to ensure sustainable management of forest resources in the targeted landscape in particular and Indian Himalaya in general.

Thakur, S; Negi, VS; Pathak, R; Dhyani, R; Durgapal, K; Rawal, RS

Indicator based integrated vulnerability assessment of community forests in Indian west Himalaya

Forest Ecology And Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2019.117674

Background: Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its geographic location, high dependence on agriculture and water resources, low adaptive capacity of its people, and weak system of emergency preparedness. This paper is the first ever attempt to rank the agro-ecological zones in Pakistan according to their vulnerability to climate change and to identify the potential health repercussions of each manifestation of climate change in the context of Pakistan. Methods: A climate change vulnerability index is constructed as an un-weighted average of three sub-indices measuring (a) the ecological exposure of each region to climate change, (b) sensitivity of the population to climate change and (c) the adaptive capacity of the population inhabiting a particular region. The regions are ranked according to the value of this index and its components. Since health is one of the most important dimensions of human wellbeing, this paper also identifies the potential health repercussions of each manifestations of climate change and links it with the key manifestations of climate change in the context of Pakistan. Results: The results indicate that Balochistan is the most vulnerable region with high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity followed by low-intensity Punjab (mostly consisting of South Punjab) and Cotton/Wheat Sindh. The health risks that each of these regions face depend upon the type of threat that they face from climate change. Greater incidence of flooding, which may occur due to climate variability, poses the risk of diarrhoea and gastroenteritis; skin and eye Infections; acute respiratory infections; and malaria. Exposure to drought poses the potential health risks in the form of food insecurity and malnutrition; anaemia; night blindness; and scurvy. Increases in temperature pose health risks of heat stroke; malaria; dengue; respiratory diseases; and cardiovascular diseases. Conclusion: The study concludes that geographical zones that are more exposed to climate change in ecological and geographic terms-such as Balochistan, Low-Intensity Punjab, and Cotton-Wheat Sindh -also happen to be the most deprived regions in Pakistan in terms of socio-economic indicators, suggesting that the government needs to direct its efforts to the socio-economic uplift of these lagging regions to reduce their vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change.

Malik, SM; Awan, H; Khan, N

Mapping vulnerability to climate change and its repercussions on human health in Pakistan

Globalization And Health

https://doi.org/10.1186/1744-8603-8-31

A vanguard of insurers is adapting its business model to the realities of climate change. In many ways, insurers are still catching up both to mainstream science and to their customers, which, in response to climate change and energy volatility, are increasingly changing the way they construct buildings, transport people and goods, design products and produce energy. Customers, as well as regulators and shareholders, are eager to see insurers provide more products and services that respond to the greening'' of the global economy, expand their efforts to improve disaster resilience and otherwise be proactive about the climate change threat. Insurers are increasingly recognising the issue as one of enterprise risk management'' (ERM), one cutting across the domains of underwriting, asset management and corporate governance. Their responses are becoming correspondingly sophisticated. Based on a review of more than 300 source documents, plus a direct survey of insurance companies, we have identified 643 specific activities from 244 insurance entities from 29 countries, representing a 50 per cent year-over-year increase in activity. These entities collectively represent $1.2 trillion in annual premiums and $13 trillion in assets, while employing 2.2 million people. In addition to activities on the part of 189 insurers, eight reinsurers, 20 intermediaries and 27 insurance organisations, we identified 34 non-insurance entities that have collaborated in these efforts. Challenges and opportunities include bringing promising products and services to scale, continuing to identify and fill market and coverage gaps and identifying and confirming the veracity of green improvements. There is also need for convergence between sustainability and disaster resilience, greater engagement by insurers in adaptation to unavoidable climate changes and to clarify the role that regulators will play in moving the market. It has not yet been demonstrated how some insurance lines might respond to climate change and a number of market segments have not yet been served with a single green insurance product or service. As insurer activities obtain more prominence, they also will be subject to more scrutiny and expectations that they are not simply greenwashing. The Geneva Papers (2009) 34, 323-359. doi: 10.1057/gpp.2009.14

Mills, E

A Global Review of Insurance Industry Responses to Climate Change

Geneva Papers On Risk And Insurance-Issues And Practice

https://doi.org/10.1057/gpp.2009.14

Barriers to food security and climate adaptation operate in complex and dynamic ways but are often perceived as static impediments to be overcome. In this study, we apply systems thinking for the assessment of barriers in agricultural decision-making for food security and climate adaptation. Using a mixed method approach of participatory simulation game design and causal loop diagrams, we explore the dynamic pathways through which barriers inhibit farmers from achieving food security and climate adaptation in Southern Mali. Results show that the key barriers in the region are financial, land, and climate-related barriers including unavailability of formal credit sources, high input prices, inadequate land access and ownership rights, time and labor constraints in collective vs individual plots, and climate risks such as early and late season droughts, high temperature, excessive rainfall, water scarcity, and pest incidences. These barriers operate in complex, interdependent, and dynamic ways where factors that act as enablers in one context can also function as barriers in another context. We see such interdependencies in three cases: i) access to interlocked credit and loans for cotton cultivation acts as enablers of income generation for male farmers but become barriers to female farmers who do not cultivate cotton ii) land ownership and land use rights for male farmers act as enablers for cultivation of income generating cash and food crops but acts as a barrier for female farmers by way of intra-household labor dynamics within collective plots iii) increase in land allocation to cotton and maize cultivation acts as enablers for increased household income but becomes a barrier to food security due to higher vulnerability to climate risks. Assessment of causal loop diagrams identified deep and shallow leverage points. Policies and interventions that focused on input subsidies and credit facilities are shallow leverage points where incremental changes will only lead to small improvements in farmers' livelihoods. Policies that support improved access and ownership of land to female farmers are deep leverage points that can potentially shift the dominant cropping pattern to more diversified and climate-resilient production. (c) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

Sanga, U; Sidibé, A; Olabisi, LS

Dynamic pathways of barriers and opportunities for food security and climate adaptation in Southern Mali

World Development

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105663

The objective of the study was to detect and identify land cover changes in Laikipia County of Kenya that have occurred during the last three decades. The land use types of study area are six, of which three are the main and the other three are the minor. The main three, forest, shrub or bush land and grassland, changed during the period, of which grass-lands reduced by 5864 ha (40%), forest by 3071 ha (24%) and shrub and bush land increased by 8912 ha (43%). The other three minor land use types were bare land which had reduced by 238 ha (45%), river bed vegetation increased by 209 ha (72%) and agriculture increased by 52 ha (600%) over the period decades. Differences in spatiotemporal variations of vegetation could be largely attributed to the effects of climate factors, anthropogenic activities and their interactions. Precipitation and temperature have been demonstrated to be the key climate factors for plant growth and vegetation development where rainfall decreased by 200 mm and temperatures increased by 1.5 degrees C over the period. Also, the opinion of the community on the change of land use and management was attributed to climate change and also adaptation strategies applied by the community over time. For example unlike the common understanding that forest resources utilisation increases with increasing human population, Mukogodo dry forested ecosystem case is different in that the majority of the respondents (78.9%) reported that the forest resource use was more in that period than now and also a similar majority (74.2%) had the same opinion that forest resource utilisation was low compared to last 30 years. In Yaaku community, change impacts were evidenced and thus mitigation measures suggested to address the impacts which included the following: controlled bush management and indigenous grass reseeding programme were advocated to restore original grasslands, and agricultural (crop farming) activities are carried out in designated areas outside the forest conservation areas (ecosystem zoning) all in consultation with government (political class), community and other stakeholders. Groups are organised (environmental management committee) to address conservation, political and vulnerability issues in the pastoral dry forested ecosystem which will sustain pastoralism in the ecosystem.

M'mboroki, KG; Wandiga, S; Oriaso, SO

Climate change impacts detection in dry forested ecosystem as indicated by vegetation cover change in -Laikipia, of Kenya

Environmental Monitoring And Assessment

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-018-6630-6

Societal Impact Statement Climate resilient crops will become increasingly important, especially in regions where smallholder farmers are vulnerable to climate extremes. Enset, a multipurpose perennial staple crop consumed by over 20 million people in Ethiopia, purportedly provides food security during periods of drought. Here, we find evidence that frequent severe drought events led to an increase in enset production area. This is consistent with a broader pattern whereby farmers preferentially cultivate perennial and storable crops after long-term drought events, providing an example of adaptation to fluctuations in climate through crop choice in indigenous agrisystems. Smallholder farms in the semiarid and subhumid tropics are particularly vulnerable to increased climate variability. Indigenous agrisystems that have co-evolved with climate variability may have developed resilience strategies. In the Southwest Ethiopian Highlands, agrisystems are dominated by the multipurpose perennial staple enset (Ensete ventricosum), characterised by flexible harvest timing, high yield, long storage, and putative drought tolerance, earning it the name 'the tree against hunger'. We tested three hypotheses using crop production area and climate data. First, that enset production area is greatest in the most drought-prone locations. Second, that farmers respond to drought events by increasing enset production area. And third, that drought encourages shifts in agrisystem composition more widely towards perennial or storable crops. We found that regions with a higher severe drought frequency are associated with significantly higher proportion of enset production. Similarly, the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index of the previous 3 years is significantly negatively correlated with enset production area time series, suggesting that prior drier conditions led farmers to increase the land under enset production. Regarding other crops, storage crops roots and tubers were also preferentially selected after long-term drought over annual crops, indicating their capacity for longer-term resilience. Promoting the production of crops such as perennials, which have more extensive and established root systems, may be a strategy to ensure food security during drought or climate variability. These results indicate the potential of farmer's resilience strategies to improve food security in a changing climate.

Chase, RR; Büchi, L; Rodenburg, J; Roux, N; Wendawek, A; Borrell, JS

Smallholder farmers expand production area of the perennial crop enset as a climate coping strategy in a drought-prone indigenous agrisystem

Plants People Planet

https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp3.10339

Climate change and its resulting uncertainties challenge the concepts, procedures, and scope of conventional approaches to planning, creating a need to rethink and revise current planning methods. This paper proposes a new conceptual framework for assessing city plans based on the idea of sustainability and planning countering climate change. It applies this framework to assess the recent master plan for the city of New York City: PlaNYC 2030. The framework consists of eight concepts that were identified through conceptual analyses of the planning and interdisciplinary literature on sustainability and climate change. Using the proposed conceptual framework to evaluate PlaNYC 2030 reveals some of the merits of the Plan. PlaNYC promotes greater compactness and density, enhanced mixed land use, sustainable transportation, greening, and renewal and utilization of underused land. With regard to the concept of uncertainty, it addresses future uncertainties related to climate change with institutional measures only. From the perspective of ecological economics, the Plan creates a number of mechanisms to promote its climate change goals and to create a cleaner environment for economic investment. It offers an ambitious vision of reducing emissions by 30% and creating a greener, greater New York, and links this vision with the international agenda for climate change. On the other hand, the assessment reveals that PlaNYC did not make a radical shift toward planning for climate change and adaptation. It inadequately addresses social planning issues that are crucial to New York City. NYC is socially differentiated in terms of the capacity of communities to meet climate change uncertainties, and the Plan fails to address the issues facing vulnerable communities due to climate change. The Plan calls for an integrative approach to climate change on the institutional level, but it fails to effectively integrate civil society, communities, and grassroots organizations into the process. The lack of a systematic procedure for public participation throughout the city's neighborhoods and among different social groupings and other stakeholders is a critical shortcoming, particularly during the current age of climate change uncertainty. Practically, the proposed conceptual framework of evaluate appears to be an effective and constructive means of illuminating the Plan's strengths and weaknesses, and appears to be an easy-to-grasp evaluation method, and should be easily understood and applied by scholars, practitioners and policy makers.

Jabareen, Y

An Assessment Framework for Cities Coping with Climate Change: The Case of New York City and its PlaNYC 2030

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su6095898

Coastal cities are vulnerable to flooding, and flood risk to coastal cities will increase due to sea-level rise. Moreover, Asian cities in particular are subject to considerable population growth and associated urban developments, increasing this risk even more. Empirical data on vulnerability and the cost and benefits of flood risk reduction measures are therefore paramount for sustainable development of these cities. This paper presents an approach to explore the impacts of sea-level rise and socio-economic developments on flood risk for the flood-prone District 4 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, and to develop and evaluate the effects of different adaptation strategies (new levees, dry-and wet proofing of buildings and elevating roads and buildings). A flood damage model was developed to simulate current and future flood risk using the results from a household survey to establish stage-damage curves for residential buildings. The model has been used to assess the effects of several participatory developed adaptation strategies to reduce flood risk, expressed in expected annual damage (EAD). Adaptation strategies were evaluated assuming combinations of both sea-level scenarios and land-use scenarios. Together with information on costs of these strategies, we calculated the benefit-cost ratio and net present value for the adaptation strategies until 2100, taking into account depreciation rates of 2.5% and 5 %. The results of this modelling study indicate that the current flood risk in District 4 is USD0.31 million per year, increasing up to USD 0.78 million per year in 2100. The net present value and benefit-cost ratios using a discount rate of 5% range from USD-107 to -1.5 million, and from 0.086 to 0.796 for the different strategies. Using a discount rate of 2.5% leads to an increase in both net present value and benefit-cost ratio. The adaptation strategies wet-proofing and dry-proofing generate the best results using these economic indicators. The information on different strategies will be used by the government of Ho Chi Minh City to determine a new flood protection strategy. Future research should focus on gathering empirical data right after a flood on the occurring damage, as this appears to be the most uncertain factor in the risk assessment.

Lasage, R; Veldkamp, TIE; de Moel, H; Van, TC; Phi, HL; Vellinga, P; Aerts, JCJH

Assessment of the effectiveness of flood adaptation strategies for HCMC

Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1441-2014

Purpose With the simultaneous increase of natural hazards and land- and resource-vulnerable women in the rural coasts of Bangladesh, large- and medium-scale infrastructure and livelihood programmes by government and non-government-organisations have been plenty. Yet, gender-responsive and livelihood-integrated infrastructure for these women's adaptation against increasing coastal vulnerabilities has been scarce. This paper outlines an infrastructure framework for improving their livelihood resilience in the scarcity of similar research. Design/methodology/approach A case study approach was assumed for this research. Based on a conceptual framework, in-depth interviews and focus-group-discussions with vulnerable women and key-informant-interview of NGO/government respondents were primarily used for data collection at Latachapli - a disaster-vulnerable coastal village in Southwest Bangladesh. Findings were derived primarily through inductive thematic coding. Findings Rural coastal women's livelihood vulnerabilities result from the lack of adequate, spatial/infrastructural and integrated (socio-economic) facilities and institutions. There is a clear need for a community-level and gender-responsive spatio-physical platform to create income generation/livelihood diversification opportunities irrespective of seasonalities, skill/capacity development and sharing/networking possibilities. Research limitations/implications Due to case-specificity, research findings are representative but not generalisable. Further research is needed, especially at the intersection of gender, inequality and infrastructure design/planning regarding vulnerable women's resilience. Practical implications This proposed infrastructure framework can be considered for similar disaster-vulnerable rural coastal settings as a development policy and a physical infrastructure. Originality/value This case study's in-depth probing into vulnerable coastal women's livelihoods contributes to a growing body of knowledge, highlights their complex needs, and re-conceptualises gender-responsive infrastructure in similar communities' sustainable development. Piecemeal funding for social services will be more effective if coordinated with and allocated to appropriate engineering infrastructure. With access to proper community facilities and diverse livelihood opportunities all around the year (in this case, a multipurpose gender-sensitive infrastructure), communities would be more empowered to self-organise and support each other in delivering necessary soft services.

Islam, MA; Shetu, MM; Hakim, SS

Possibilities of a gender-responsive infrastructure for livelihood-vulnerable women's resilience in rural-coastal Bangladesh

Built Environment Project And Asset Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/BEPAM-12-2020-0190

A cross-sectional study was conducted in June and July 2015, aiming at investigating the cross cultural utility of adapted version of Health Belief Model (HBM) in predicting disaster preparedness for flood hazards at household levels in Dire Dawa town, Ethiopia. To accommodate the fact that this work was undertaken in a collectivistic culture in which social processes play more prominent roles in interpretation and action selection, a structured questionnaire was developed by adding community participation to the prominent constructs of HBM and modifying self-efficacy to collective-efficacy. Households (660) were selected by stratified systematic random sampling technique. From each household, an individual aged 18 or above was selected by random and participated in the study. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and Generalized Structural Equation Modeling (GSEM) analyses were done using STATA version-13.0. SEM analysis showed that the total effects of perceived threat (path coefficient ([3)=-0.002, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): [-0.003, 0.001]), perceived benefits minus perceived barriers ([3=-0.048, 95% CI: [-0.080, 0.015]), and cues to actions ([3=-0.18, 95% CI: [-0.25, 0.11]) on preparedness were significant. The total effects of collective efficacy ([3=0.011, 95% CI: [-0.027, 0.049]), perceived susceptibility ([3=-0.0007, 95% CI: [-0.003, 0.002]), perceived severity ([3=-0.002, 95% CI: [-0.007, 0.004]), and community participation ([3=-0.0001, 95% CI: [-0.0003, 0.0001]) on preparedness were non-significant. In GSEM factor analysis, ethnicity, religion and residential duration were significantly associated with preparedness. Intervention is needed on barriers and perceived threat to enhance collective efficacy and preparedness.

Ejeta, LT; Ardalan, A; Paton, D; Yaseri, M

Predictors of community preparedness for flood in Dire-Dawa town, Eastern Ethiopia: Applying adapted version of Health Belief Model

International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.09.005

Natural flood management (NFM) is the name given to nature-based solutions (NBS) for flood management in the UK. It is a holistic flood management technique that employs natural hydrological processes, through the installation of interventions, to slow the flow of water, creating a landscape-scale flood management system. Despite widespread interest and supporting policy from governments and non-profit organisations, NFM, as yet, has not been widely adopted as a mainstream flood management technique. A small number of academic studies examining perceived barriers to NFM adoption have identified a variety of individual factors as being responsible. It is commonly accepted that flood risk management broadly, and NFM specifically, are complex, challenges of interacting physical and human parameters, and that academic, institutional and policy divisions are rarely sympathetic to embracing these complexities. A transdisciplinary problem-framing study in conjunction with professionals experienced in the delivery of NFM projects in the UK aimed to capture these multifaceted parameters of flood management and strategic delivery at a landscape scale using group concept mapping, a systems approach to identify conceptual convergence. This policy-delivery impasse was further explored by quantifying the relative importance of individual barriers and conceptual groupings from the perspective of two different practitioner groups (flood risk managers and conservation practitioners). The results demonstrate that the NFM delivery system can be grouped into seven interacting elements, policy and regulation, politics, public perception, cross-cutting issues, funding, technical knowledge and evidence, of which each has a varying number of barriers that limit NFM uptake. Opinions differ as to the importance of these individual barriers; however, when considering the system broadly we identify that the institutional and social barriers are perceived as the most important, whilst technical knowledge and evidence are the areas of least concern. This paper aims to promote NBS flood management delivery in the UK and globally by generating, structuring and representing the multifaceted and multilevel NFM delivery system at a local level to evidence adaptive decision making at regional, national and global levels. Through problem structuring and an increased understanding and awareness of the structure and network of linking elements and perceived differences of practitioner groups that influence the system of delivery, steps can be taken towards solutions that are socially, scientifically and practically robust.

Wingfield, T; Macdonald, N; Peters, K; Spees, J

Barriers to mainstream adoption of catchment-wide natural flood management: a transdisciplinary problem-framing study of delivery practice

Hydrology And Earth System Sciences

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6239-2021

Pakistan has become a highly vulnerable country with considerable exposure to climate change. Over the past few decades, Pakistan has endured many severe floods, droughts, and storms. However, limited research was conducted into farmers' perspectives towards climate change vulnerability, risk perceptions, and adaptation measures at the farm level in Pakistan. The current research uses a dataset of 600 farm households collected through a structured questionnaire from four districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. The study identified the farm level climatic risks perceived by the farm households including flood (60%), crop pest (56%), insect attacks (55%), extreme temperatures (54%), human diseases (54%), and livestock diseases (46%). The farm households also reported negative impacts (decrease in crop production, waterlogging, and changes in cropping calendars and positive effects (e.g., better crop production) arising from changing climate and associated threats. Further, this study identified different adaptation strategies adopted at the farm level to mitigate the adverse effects and related risks of rising climatic conditions that include changing crop varieties (37%), planting shade trees (32%), changing planting dates (31%), changing methods of fertilizer usage (26%), changing crop type (14%), soil conservation measures (11%) and crop diversification (9%). The logistic regression analysis revealed that the farm experience, education, land area, ZTBL credit, and climatic information from the relevant government department were important factors that influenced farm household adaptation measures in the study areas. Also, the study found that farm households had faced numerous constraints that could influence adaptation decisions, including financial constraints (28%), lack of knowledge and information (25%), inadequate farm resources (23%) in the study areas. Other restrictions to adaptations included the lack of public or private institutional support (14%), and lack of irrigation water (10%). The present research shows the need to implement policies that tackle adaptation barriers, and ensure that local institutions are available and ready to provide farmers with more up-to-date information and farm advisory to combat climate change and its negative consequences.

Shah, AA; Khan, NA; Gong, Z; Ahmad, I; Naqvi, SAA; Ullah, W; Karmaoui, A

Farmers' perspective towards climate change vulnerability, risk perceptions, and adaptation measures in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

International Journal Of Environmental Science And Technology

https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-022-04077-z

The 2020 hurricane season threatened millions of Americans concurrently grappling with COVID-19. Processes guiding individual-level mitigation for these conceptually distinct threats, one novel and chronic (COVID-19), the other familiar and episodic (hurricanes), are unknown. Theories of health protective behaviors suggest that inputs from external stimuli (e.g., traditional and social media) lead to threat processing, including perceived efficacy (self- and response) and perceived threat (susceptibility and severity), guiding mitigation behavior. We surveyed a representative sample of Florida and Texas residents (N = 1846) between April 14, 2020 and April 27, 2020; many had previous hurricane exposure; all were previously assessed between September 8, 2017 and September 11, 2017. Using preregistered analyses, two generalized structural equation models tested direct and indirect effects of media exposure (traditional media, social media) on self-reported (1) COVID-19 mitigation (handwashing, mask-wearing, social distancing) and (2) hurricane mitigation (preparation behaviors), as mediated through perceived efficacy (self- and response) and perceived threat (susceptibility and severity). Self-efficacy and response efficacy were associated with social distancing (p = .002), handwashing, mask-wearing, and hurricane preparation (ps < 0.001). Perceived susceptibility was positively associated with social distancing (p = 0.017) and hurricane preparation (p < 0.001). Perceived severity was positively associated with social distancing (p < 0.001). Traditional media exhibited indirect effects on COVID-19 mitigation through increased response efficacy (ps < 0.05), and to a lesser extent self-efficacy (p < 0.05), and on hurricane preparation through increased self-efficacy and response efficacy and perceived susceptibility (ps < 0.05). Social media did not exhibit indirect effects on COVID-19 or hurricane mitigation. Communications targeting efficacy and susceptibility may encourage mitigation behavior; research should explore how social media campaigns can more effectively target threat processing, guiding protective actions.

Garfin, DR; Thompson, RR; Wong-Parodi, G

Media exposure, threat processing, and mitigation behaviors in Gulf Coast residents facing the co-occurring threats of COVID-19 and hurricanes

Risk Analysis

https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.14032

Environmental changes have led to non-stationary flood risks in coastal cities. How to quantitatively characterize the future change trend and effectively adapt is a critical problem that needs urgent attention. To this end, this study uses the 2010 Shanghai land use data as the base and utilizes the future land use simulation (FLUS) model to simulate future land use change scenarios (2030, 2050, and 2100). Based on the results of storm and flood numerical simulations, probabilistic risk, and other multidisciplinary methods, extreme storm and flood risks of various land uses (residential, commercial and public service, industrial, transportation, agricultural, and other land) in Shanghai are analyzed. Our findings demonstrate that the future land use simulated results show that the simulation accuracy is very high, meeting the needs of our research. We evaluated future land use exposure assets and losses and found that their spatial distribution patterns are consistent, ranging from a sporadic distribution for 1/10-year to a banded distribution for 1/1000-year under the two emission scenarios. In terms of economic loss, the losses of total land use in Shanghai for 1/1000-year in 2100 are 1.8-2.7 times that of 2010 under the RCP8.5 scenario. The expected annual damage (EAD) of Shanghai's land use in 2030, 2050, and 2100 is 189.9 million CNY, 409.8 million CNY, and 743.5 million CNY under the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively, which is 1.7-3.0 times the EAD under the RCP2.6 scenario. Among them, residential, commercial and public service land as well as industrial land has the highest EAD. Risks are mainly distributed in the city center, the lower reaches of the Huangpu River, the northern shore of Hangzhou Bay, the Qingpu (QP)-Songjiang (SJ) depression in the southwest, and Chongming (CM) Island (southwest and northeast). Our work can provide meaningful information for risk-sensitive urban planning and resilience building in Shanghai. These multidisciplinary methods can also be applied to assess flood risk in other coastal cities.

Shan, XM; Yin, J; Wang, J

Risk assessment of shanghai extreme flooding under the land use change scenario

Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04978-1

Agriculture is highly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climatic variations and changes (CVC). Smallholder farmers in particular bear the brunt of adverse climate variations and changes. It was within this background that this paper assessed climatic variations and changes, and the drivers of smallholder farmers' vulnerability to adverse climatic changes in the Western Highlands of Cameroon. Secondary data (temperature and rainfall data) and primary data (obtained through a household survey of 350 smallholder farmers) were used for the study. Data analysis was done using descriptive and inferential statistical tools. It was found that, smallholder farmers perceived relatively high temperatures, intense sunshine, and erratic and scanty rainfall. Rising temperature, intense sunshine and scanty rainfall recurred annually. Recurrent extreme weather events and poverty were perceived as the major causes of vulnerability to climatic variations and changes. Most smallholder farmers (57.43%) rated their degree of vulnerability to CVC as highly vulnerable. A strong non-cause-effect relationship existed between vulnerability to CVC and hypothesized socio-economic, institutional and environmental explanatory variables (p < 0.01). A statistically significant inverse causal relationship existed between smallholder farmers' vulnerability to CVC and five explanatory variables: household size (beta = -1.815, p < 0.01), age of household head (beta = -0.695, p < 0.05), household income (beta = -6.321, p < 0.01), access to information (beta = -5.387, p < 0.05), and access to land (beta = -4.239, p < 0.05). It can therefore be concluded that, these five explanatory variables are the main determinants of smallholder farmers' vulnerability to climatic variations and changes. Based on the findings of the study, it is recommended that good land tenure practices be implemented, more financial support, and adequate and reliable information be provided to smallholder farmers in order to reduce their vulnerability to CVC. (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of African Institute of Mathematical Sciences / Next Einstein Initiative.

Awazi, NP; Tchamba, MN; Temgoua, LF; Avana, MLT

Appraisal of smallholder farmers' vulnerability to climatic variations and changes in the Western Highlands of Cameroon

Scientific African

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2020.e00637

Warnings about impending hazards help to minimize the impacts and reduce the risk of the hazard through encouraging an appropriate and timely behavioral response. Many hydrometeorological agencies are moving toward impact-based forecast and warning (IBFW) systems, as encouraged by the World Meteorological Organization. Yet little research has been conducted on such systems from the perspectives of agencies who are or would be involved in their implementation. We investigated the challenges and benefits of IBFW systems as perceived by participants from agencies internationally and within New Zealand. Interviews and workshops were held with meteorologists and weather forecasters, flood forecasters and hydrologists, and emergency managers. We found that the benefits of implementing IBFW systems included a perceived increase in the understanding of the potential impacts by the public, added awareness of antecedent conditions by forecasters, a possible reduction in false alarms,'' and increased interagency communication. Challenges identified by the participants included whether the system should be designed for individuals or society, a lack of impact data, verification of warnings based on impacts, a conflict with roles and responsibilities, the potential for conflicting messages, and the increased burden on agencies providing information to forecasters with a perception of little benefit in return. We argue that IBFWs could be designed for individual members of the public, with an increased focus on understanding vulnerability and capacities, and that more impact data need to be collected and stored to inform future warnings. Increased interagency coordination would assist with rapid decision-making and the success of IBFWs. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: We sought to understand the challenges and benefits of impact-based severe weather warning systems from the perspectives of agencies in New Zealand and Europe to help with implementation worldwide. Key benefits found include a perceived increase in understanding of warnings by the public, more consideration of antecedent conditions by forecasters, and an increase in interagency communication. Challenges include whether the warnings should be designed for society or individuals, a lack of impact data, verification challenges, conflict of roles and responsibilities, and a perceived increased burden on response agencies. We suggest that improvements in collecting and storing impact, vulnerability, and capacity data would help to ensure the success of impact-based warnings.

Potter, S; Harrison, S; Kreft, P

The Benefits and Challenges of Implementing Impact-Based Severe Weather Warning Systems: Perspectives of Weather, Flood, and Emergency Management Personnel

Weather Climate And Society

https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-20-0110.1

Supertyphoon Haiyan hit the Philippines in 2013, causing massive damage and loss of lives. The media blamed the government for faulty warnings, including using the term storm surge, which people reportedly did not understand. As a result, the national agency tasked with disaster risk management recommended translating the term for better response in future storms. Such an approach shortchanges the complexity of risk construction and dismisses the possibility that different communities also have different understandings of risk. In this study, the researcher examined the special case of Coron, Palawan: a major tourist destination that is rarely hit by storms but that became the site of Haiyan's last landfall. Guided by encoding-decoding theory, the researcher interviewed local government officials and carried out focus group discussions with representatives of two communities (whose names have been hidden under pseudonyms for this study): Central, close to the municipal center, and Island, a coastal village far away from potential aid and rescue. The researcher found a portrait of contrasts that split Coron: a mayor who surrendered all control and a risk management officer who planned for long-term hazard response-Island waiting for government instructions despite knowing about storm behavior and Central taking the initiative to create long-term solutions. Island also knew what storm surges were and did not need translation of the term. These findings show that risk constructions can differ even at the municipal level, which should prompt further research into the role of local knowledge in understanding risk and hazard warnings. Significance Statement How do people who have never experienced a violent storm understand the warnings that announce it? The researcher studied villages in Coron, Philippines, and found that people understand storm warnings but need an actual experience of a storm before they choose to evacuate. This means that future warnings also have to show how people will be affected personally by the storm. Understanding weather and the content of a warning will not always lead to evacuation, especially for places that have not yet experienced violent storms. There were differences found even in villages close to each other, so more research should be done on how communities understand their environment and weather warnings.

de Leon, IZP

A Portrait of Contrasts in Disaster Risk Response: A Post-Haiyan Study of Coron, Philippines

Weather Climate And Society

https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-20-0093.1

Background: Garcinia kola is an indigenous multipurpose tree species commonly found in the tropical rain forest zone of West and Central Africa. Providing economic, ecological, and socio-cultural benefits for people, they have potentials to improve the regional and local income generation to the farmers but the cultivation of the species is very limited in Nigeria. Methods: The study investigated cultivation and farmers' perceptions on the impacts of climate change on goods and services provided by G. kola in Nigeria. Structured questioners and interviews were used. The data obtained was analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistic such as frequency, percentage, chi-square, and multinomial logit regressions with SPSS Version 20 and R software Version 3.1.0. Results: The results show that farmers are presently not cultivating G. kola, and most of the available stands were inherited from grandparents. The farmers still believe it is only God that can make G. kola to germinate; however, information about the new improved methods of raising G. kola was not spread across farmers' communities. Over 93% of these farmers were not aware of these new methods, and the only means they raise the species is by picking the wildlings that regenerate naturally close to mother tree and are rarely found. The finding also shows that farmers are well aware of climate change and its impact on crop productivity is not clear to them. The result shows that five explanatory variables (age, gender, marital status, education level, household size and primary occupation) are the main factors significantly influencing farmers' perception of climate change and the cultivation of the G. kola. During interview section, the farmers reported variability of Harmattan season influences fruit production of the species; according to them, increase in Harmattan season usually leads to increase in fruiting of G. kola. Conclusions: Based on our findings, all the 215 respondent interviewed agree that climatic variability influences the availability of G. kola which will in turn have significant effects on the goods and services provided to the people. Efforts should be made at educating the rural farmers on propagation possibilities, potential ecosystem services, and the impact of climate change on multiple-purpose agroforestry species.

Agwu, OP; Bakayoko, A; Jimoh, SO; Stefan, P

Farmers' perceptions on cultivation and the impacts of climate change on goods and services provided by Garcinia kola in Nigeria

Ecological Processes

https://doi.org/10.1186/s13717-018-0147-3

Purpose Although smart city studies have increased recently, smart city discussions are made based on general concepts not specific to the region. The region-specific local smart city strategy in the built environment is key to climate resilience in the built environment in the face of natural disasters. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the smart environment, which expresses the spatial dimension of smart cities. This research defines a region-specific smart city model and revealing the role of this model in the resilience against disasters of the built environment. Design/methodology/approach The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method was conducted in four steps. In Step 1, the authors suggested new smart environmental assessment criteria with climatic and geographical data within the scope of the collective mind of the region. In Step 2, they determined the expert group to evaluate within the scope of the AHP method and then compared the significance levels of the current and suggested smart environmental assessment criteria by the AHP method. Findings From the results, it turned out that smart urbanization processes, which are trying to relate to local characteristics, are of great importance in terms of ensuring urban resilience. The results also highlight that the existing smart environmental assessment criteria in the literature are insufficient to ensure the climatic resilience of the built environment in the face of natural disasters. Research limitations/implications The study is in an intermediary section, which has a gap in the literature due to its subject. Although it has focused on an acute problem and a current research problem, the lack of literature on the field has been a limitation. Determining the cities where the field studies would be conducted has been a major limitation. For an objective hypothesis test within the scope of the AHP method, the sample group should consist of experts working in smart city projects in cities that are in the top 3 in five different smart city rankings, where field studies are conducted. Within this limited cluster, creating a large sample group was an important limitation. Originality/value This research looks into the existing gaps of the relation between climate resilience of the built environment and the local smart city approach. This examination will foster a holistic approach in the practice of sustainable smart city in the built environment, thus reinforcing urban resilience and climate studies in the context of smart cities.

Ates, M; Önder, DE

A local smart city approach in the context of smart environment and urban resilience

International Journal Of Disaster Resilience In The Built Environment

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDRBE-07-2021-0064

Social-ecological resilience (SER), understood as the capacity to prevent, react to, and mitigate crises that affect social-ecological systems, provides an integrative framework to analyze agricultural challenges. Based on this approach, key points that affect the sustainability of productive landscapes are addressed and evaluated, providing a baseline from which to improve farming systems at different scales. Hence, the aim of this work is to assess SER in potato crops in the Narino area in southwestern Colombia, a region where strategies to increase resilience must be implemented. Following the methodology proposed by the UNU-IAS (2014), potato producers' thoughts and perceptions were evaluated by implementing eleven workshops in seven municipalities. Five main integrative factors (twenty indicators of resilience) were examined and scored during the assessment: (1) governance and social equity, (2) livelihood and well-being, (3) knowledge and innovation, (4) landscape diversity and ecosystem protection, and (5) agrobiodiversity and sustainable natural resource management. Participants evaluated each indicator from 1 to 5 (1 being low performance and 5 extremely good performance). The results were calculated and averaged. Prior to the assessment, participatory techniques to generate collective reflection on resilience and landscape management were performed. The results showed that farmers rated SER resilience from low to moderate (from 2.5 to 3.2), with well-being (2.5) and knowledge and innovation (2.7) being the worst-rated factors. The data evidence deficiencies in all the indicators examined. Issues that constrain SER are related to the lack of capacity to create bio-industries, small livelihood portfolios, pollution, loss of natural areas (which impacts biodiversity and ecosystem services), and the loss of ancestral knowledge. The producers requested, as short-term actions, increases in technical assistance (to promote innovation and business initiatives) and farm diversification programs (to take advantage of their native potatoes diversity). They also agreed on the need for associative figures to enhance capacity-building among producers. These findings confirm deficiencies that minimize the sustainability of this system. Actions that impact positively almost all indicators are required to improve not only productivity but also the population's well-being.

Martinez, E; Luna-Mancilla, LT; Ramos-Zambrano, HS; Vidal-Gomez, U

Potato Farming Systems from a Social-Ecological Perspective: Identifying Key Points to Increase Resilience in a High Andean Productive Landscape

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su14052491

Rural people, particularly in developing nations, rely on livestock as a key source of income. In Pakistan, rural people depend profoundly on buffalo, cows, sheep, and goats to earn their live-lihood. The systems of agricultural production are at risk because of the negative effects of climate change. It badly affects production and quality of milk and meat, animal health, pro-ductivity, breeding, feed, and rangelands of livestock production. Climate change risks assessment and adaptation are required to minimize losses from these effects, which are not just technical but also socioeconomically significant. Hence, based on data collected from 1080 livestock herders using a multistage sampling technique in Punjab, Pakistan this study aims to assess perceived impact of climate change on livestock production and to assess coping strategies. In addition, determinants of adaptation strategies and their effects on livestock production was also estimated. Binary Logistic Regression was used to identify the drivers of adaptation strategies. In addition, Multi Group Analysis (MGA) in Partial Least Squares Path Modelling (PLS-PM) was applied to compare adapter and non-adapter of climate change adaptation strategies. Findings indicated that there are spread of various diseases to livestock due to adverse effects of climatic variability. There was reduction in the availability of the livestock's feed. Moreover, competition of water and land resources of livestock was also increasing. Low production efficiency resulted in decline of milk yield and meat production. Likewise, mortality of livestock, increased in still births, reduction in reproductive performance, decline in animal fertility, longevity, and general fitness, decreased birthing rates, rises in age at foremost calving in beef cattle was also prevailing. There were different adaptation policies used by farmers to handle with climate change and these were influenced by several demographic, socioeconomic, and agronomic aspects. Findings indicated that nexus of risk perception, adaptation plans and their determinants are beneficial to reduce the consequences of climatic variability and it improve the wellbeing of the herders. Risk manage-ment system may be created to protect livestock against losses caused by extreme weather events by providing awareness regarding influence of climate change on livestock. Easy and cheaper credit should be provided to the farmers to manage with the vulnerabilities of climate change.

Usman, M; Ali, A; Rosak-Szyrocka, J; Pilar, L; Baig, SA; Akram, R; Wudil, AH

Climate change and livestock herders wellbeing in Pakistan: Does nexus of risk perception, adaptation and their drivers matter?

Heliyon

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e16983

Over the years extreme weather events have been catastrophic and continue to have overwhelming impacts globally, mainly due to climate change. However, the impacts of extreme weather events have been uneven and devastating in developing countries largely because of lack of resources, weak adaptive capacity and large dependency on climate sensitive livelihoods. Odisha on the eastern coast of India is one of the most disaster-prone states in India with a regular prevalence of extreme events like cyclones, droughts, floods and Heat waves. The state's livelihood is mainly based on weather patterns directly (farming, fisheries) or indirectly (non-farm wage labour, dairy farming) are at stake due to the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events. However, there are very limited studies available which describe the situation, impacts and resilience of extreme weather events in the context of livelihood in the state. The present study is an attempt in this direction to review and examine the impact of extreme weather events (e.g., cyclone, flood, drought and Heat wave) on the livelihood of the population in Odisha. In addition, the study examines the resilience shown by the people and the program and policy adopted by the government on the extreme weather events in the state. The study findings highlight that extreme weather events have affected populations at large, caused substantial economic losses and exerted a disproportionate effect on the vulnerable social groups such as sharecroppers, small and marginal farmers, backward communities, landless labourers, wage labourers, rickshaw pullers and vendors as the nature of work in which they are engaged is susceptible to the effects of extreme weather events. Heat waves, droughts, floods and cyclones are the important extreme weather events that hamper the livelihoods in Odisha. Frequent occurrence of events has caused a blow to the livelihood resilience of the poor and marginalized people. While immediate coping mechanisms at the local level do provide some relief to the people, but the ability of people to adapt to these disasters is severely affected by the increased frequency of these disasters and there is a dire need to focus towards more sustainable and long-term livelihood solutions.

Patel, SK; Mathew, B; Nanda, A; Pati, S; Nayak, H

A review on extreme weather events and livelihood in Odisha, India

Mausam

Decision-makers who have little to no formal training in atmospheric science are increasingly accessing and interpreting climate data and information within planning contexts. Many climate decision support tools (DSTs) have been developed to support decision-making across a variety of sectors and scales, but evaluation of such tools has only recently begun to take place. This study conducted a summative evaluation of the utility of a decision-maker-driven climate hazard assessment tool, the Simple Planning Tool (SPT), a climate DST. The SPT was inspired by and codeveloped with emergency managers, planners, and a boundary organization in two south-central U.S. states. The SPT's target audience was surveyed to assess the tool's utility, including its saliency, credibility, trustworthiness, and reasons for and impact of information use on decision-making. A high utility was found despite a relatively limited user base at the time of the study. In addition, SPT users represented a range of jurisdictional sizes, geographical scales, and years of experience. Although the small user sample limits generalizability of the study, it is likely a realistic reflection of the number of emergency managers and planners in the two states who are actively and regularly incorporating climate hazards into planning. The data also indicate that climate boundary organizations and climate service providers should work toward utilizing trusted information sources, channels, and procedures within the sectors to which their tool applies to help increase decision-maker awareness and use of their tool. Significance StatementA Simple Planning Tool (SPT) for Oklahoma and Arkansas climate hazards was developed in response to needs identified by planners and emergency managers in two states. This study evaluated the usefulness and impact of the SPT about one year after it became available and adds to the limited body of literature on climate decision support tool evaluation. The evaluation showed that that tool was useful and informed plans, but for a limited user base. Climate decision support tool communicators can help raise awareness of their tool(s) by utilizing existing decision-maker trusted information channels. They should also recognize that the full impact of their tool may not be known for several years, especially within the context of long-range planning.

Riley, RE

An Evaluation of the Utility of a Decision-Maker-Driven Climate Hazard Assessment Tool

Weather Climate And Society

https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-20-0019.1

Climate change mitigation is a wicked problem that cuts horizontally across sectors and vertically across levels of government. To address it effectively, governments around the world, in particular in the EU, have developed several generations of multi-sectoral national mitigation strategies (NMS) since the early 1990s. Although NMS became the main effort to systematically coordinate mitigation policies, few works have studied them comparatively so far. The present article fills this gap by analysing how the EU-15 group of countries operationalized climate protection through NMS. First, we introduce the three roles policy strategies usually aim to fulfil: besides being policy documents they also represent governance processes (supposed to coordinate sectoral implementation), and capacity-building efforts. Empirically, we then explore the rationale, origins and prevalence of NMS. Subsequently, we characterize them as policy documents (with regards to their contents and structures) and as governance processes that address capacity building only implicitly. Based on existing assessments we finally review some performance indications of NMS. We find that in particular second- and third-generation NMS aimed to take their governance function seriously but resembled lacklustre bookkeeping' of emissions, targets and mitigation options. Instead of approximating NMS towards their obviously overcharging governance function, we suggest to recalibrate them towards their communication and capacity-building function in a way that goes beyond bookkeeping.Policy relevanceThe present article shows that NMS fail to effectively govern climate change mitigation across a broad range of sectoral policy domains. Since most European countries have adopted not one but up to three generations of NMS since the 1990s, this finding is highly relevant for them - and for all others aiming to adopt similarly broad strategies. Instead of piling one strategy on top of another irrespective of their implementation, and instead of abolishing mitigation strategies altogether, we recommend recalibrating them towards what they can realistically accomplish: effective communication and capacity building so that NMS can advance from lacklustre bookkeeping to actively promoting a government-wide climate change mitigation vision. The article can help governments to realise that renewing integrated strategies such as NMS without overhauling them comes close to flogging a dead horse.

Casado-Asensio, J; Steurer, R

Bookkeeping rather than climate policy making: national mitigation strategies in Western Europe

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2014.980211

Climate change severely affects smallholder farmers in developing countries such as Ethiopia. To overcome the impacts, the government of Ethiopia has been undertaking a massive adaptation programs including integrated watershed management practices. However, there is a limited understanding of climate change, adaptation strategies, and the effect and acceptance of the implemented techniques. The objective of this study was to assess climate variability, farmers' climate change adaptation strategies, and the role of watershed management in climate change adaptation. A multi-stage sampling technique was used to select 255 household heads from three rural kebeles (lowest administrative unit of government) in high, mid, and low-elevation areas. The household survey, focus group discussion, and key informant interview record were used to collect data. In addition, long term meteorology record was used. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and a multinomial logit model. The results showed that more than 80% of the farmers, in each elevation, perceived climate variability such as increasing temperature and rainfall fluctuations. The perceived variability is more pronounced in the low-elevation areas. The meteorology record also showed fluctuation in rainfall. About 90% of respondents in each elevation area perceived population pressure, cultivation, and deforestation as the major causes of climate variability. About 90% of respondents perceived crop yield decline due to climate variability. In drought years, crop yield and livestock production decline by similar to 50% compared to the average year. Adjustment of crop planting time, crop diversification, selling household assets, participating in off-farm activities, and using government aid were practiced as climate change adaptation measures. About 70% of farmers perceived the positive role of watershed management in climate change adaptation. On average, 36-43% of the farmers in the study area participated in watershed management activities such as the construction of bunds and tree planting, which assist in coping with climate variability impacts. Farm size, sex, education, and farming experience positively and significantly affect the adaptation practices of the farmers. Policymakers and practitioners need to consider the issues related to climate variability and watershed management as a strategy for climate change adaptation. Policy intervention by the Federal government on sustainable watershed management and rural livelihood strategies could assist in sustainable environmental management and climate change adaptation.

Wolka, K; Uma, T; Tofu, DA

The role of integrated watershed management in climate change adaptation for small-scale farmers in Southwest Ethiopia

Environmental And Sustainability Indicators

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indic.2023.100260

Rural households in semi-arid areas of southern Africa are confronted with numerous hazards that threaten the household food base. The new wildlife policy of establishing transfrontier conservation areas aims to increase conservation of wildlife resources while improving local livelihoods. This policy can be better appreciated by local people if it embraces knowledge of the adaptive strategies they employ to close the food gap. We assessed how different households responded to the major hazard, drought, in order to gain insight into how these households addressed critical questions of food availability. Informal interviews, key informant interviews and focus group discussions were conducted to determine how households can be disaggregated according to their livelihood patterns and a questionnaire was applied to learn how each group responded to drought. Data were analysed within the three livelihood types that were identified and described at local level as cattle-based, crop-based and non-farm based. We found that factors that aggravated the effects of drought are specific to the different household types and their responses were also specific to that particular household type. Disaggregation of the livelihood types revealed within and between type relations and interactions that are important to people in order to cope. For example, even though cropping is an important activity across the three livelihood types, specifically in cattle and crop-based types, the non-farm type becomes important in restocking inputs after a serious drought through cross-border trading. Livestock and cross-border trading are important coping strategies for all three livelihood types, with the cattle-based trading cattle, the crop-based trading goats and poultry and the non-farm based linking with markets for trading livestock, drugs and restocked inputs for the cattle-based and crop-based groups. These linkages among livelihood types are important factors in reducing vulnerability to change that only become visible as a result of this disaggregation. We conclude that additional policies of enhancing the resilience of local food systems by stimulating across-border livestock trading and formal market set-up and enhancing systems of adaptation that are already in existence (e.g., crop production in the Banyeni) can add value to the success of transfrontier conservation areas in southern Africa.

Murungweni, C; van Wijk, MT; Giller, KE; Andersson, JA; Smaling, EMA

Adaptive livelihood strategies employed by farmers to close the food gap in semi-arid south eastern Zimbabwe

Food Security

https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-014-0348-2

Seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) have significant potential to support shorter-term agricultural decisions and longer-term climate adaptation plans, but uptake in Europe has to date been low. Under the European Union funded project, European Provision Of Regional Impacts Assessments on Seasonal and Decadal Timescales (EUPORIAS) we have developed the Land Management Tool (LMTool), a prototype seasonal climate service for land managers, working closely in collaboration with two stakeholder organizations, Clinton Devon Estates (CDE) and the National Farmers Union (NFU). LMTool was one of several prototype climate services selected for development within EUPORIAS, including those for the UK transport network, food security in Ethiopia, renewable energy production, hydroelectric energy production in Sweden, and river management in two French basins. The LMTool provides SCFs (1-3 months ahead) to farmers in the Southwest UK, alongside 14-day site specific weather forecasts during the winter months when the skill of seasonal forecasts is greatest. We describe the processes through which the LMTool was co-designed and developed with the farmers, its technical development and key features; critically examine the lessons learned and their implications for providing future climate services for land managers; and finally assess the feasibility of delivering an operational winter seasonal climate service for UK land managers. A number of key learning points from developing the prototype may benefit future work in climate services for the land management and agriculture sector; many of these points are also valid for climate services in other sectors. Prototype development strongly benefitted from; working with intermediaries to identify representative, engaged land managers; an iterative and flexible process of co-design with the farmer group; and from an interdisciplinary project team. Further work is needed to develop a better understanding of the role of forecast skill in land management decision making, the potential benefits of downscaling and how seasonal forecasts can help support land managers decision-making processes. The prototype would require considerable work to implement a robust operational forecast system, and a longer period to demonstrate the value of the services provided. Finally, the potential for such services to be applied more widely in Europe is not well understood and would require further stakeholder engagement and forecast development.

Falloon, P; Soares, MB; Manzanas, R; San-Martin, D; Liggins, F; Taylor, I; Kahana, R; Wilding, J; Jones, C; Comer, R; de Vreede, E; de Cerff, WS; Buontempo, C; Brookshaw, A; Stanley, S; Middleham, R; Pittams, D; Lawrence, E; Bate, E; Peter, H; Uzell, K; Richards, M

The land management tool: Developing a climate service in Southwest UK

Climate Services

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2017.08.002

Loss and damage (L&D) is now a key area of climate policy. Yet studies of L&D governance have focused disproportionately on the international level while the national scale of analysis has been overlooked. Recent developments in the UNFCCC negotiations and a growing call for a 'science of loss' that can support policy-makers to address L&D suggest the need for a greater understanding of L&D governance at the national level. How do national policy-makers understand the concept of L&D? What types of policies have been developed, implemented and funded to address L&D? We study the paradigmatic case of Tuvalu to illustrate the value of turning to the national level of analysis, while recognizing that other countries might frame L&D and its relevance for the national context differently, and thus devise a diverse set of policy responses. Drawing on semi-structured interviews with national stakeholders and a systematic policy review using methods of interpretive policy analysis, we show that the concept of L&D was introduced in official documentation in 2012 and is not explicitly distinguished from adaptation. We find that managing L&D constitutes a complex governance system with competencies and responsibilities diffused across different national actors and multiple governance scales. As conceptualized by policy-makers and within policy documents, L&D is closely tied to issues related to national sovereignty, human mobility, infrastructure investment and protection of the Exclusive Economic Zone. We conclude by suggesting that there is a need for a 'national turn' in research on L&D governance to produce knowledge that will support policy-makers, but also argue that national level analyses will always need to be situated within a multi-scalar context. Key policy insights: Conceptual understandings of L&D and how it is distinct from adaptation do not translate neatly into national policy-making practices. In Tuvalu, L&D does not feature as a stand-alone policy domain, but rather it is treated as a cross-cutting issue. National responses to L&D might involve action at the regional and international level. The establishment of the Santiago Network at COP25 provides new impetus for considering how to govern climate change L&D at the national level.

Calliari, E; Vanhala, L

The 'national turn' in climate change loss and damage governance research: constructing the L&D policy landscape in Tuvalu

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2022.2027222

In 2012, about 1.3 million people lived on the slopes of Merapi, one of the most active volcanoes in the eastern part of Java Island in Indonesia. A majority of Merapi inhabitants, grouped together in small villages, live off agricultural income, relying on hydraulic infrastructures for their daily activities. Not only do these farming activities require a substantial amount of water, but an entire community in one village also depends on water resources to maintain its organization and functioning. The proximity of water availability and its access with community dependence on it is well illustrated by the first water management position in the community initiatives: the term socio-hydraulic system highlights the dependency of the community organization profile on water resources. However, the eruption of Merapi in 2010 and the following pyroclastic flow or lahar-related crises have recently made water availability and access to water the main challenges to be addressed by the hydraulic community. Many research projects have highlighted actions taken by the Merapi communities to face successive disasters using the resilience concept, which is closely linked to sustainability. However, the interviews we carried out in 2013, 3years after the eruption and a few months after lahar recurrences, revealed persistent fragilities and readjustments to water management in hazard-prone areas. This present work first aims to discuss multiple social vulnerabilities and in some cases, the capacity to adapt, by investigating the hydraulic community's responses in the face of lahar issues after the 2010 Merapi eruption. In order to reassess the resilience concept and to draw the limits of its operative aspects, studies of multi-dimensional responses to the interviews and of explicative factors have been developed within the Merapi community. Focusing on resources, people's roles and socio-environmental risks, we discuss the main influence of the cultures of risks' observed through a 1-month period of fieldwork, a notion that add another focus to the notion of local resilience(s): in doing so, we defend the idea that risk assessments must be undertaken through a systemic approach, focusing on the coupled-notion vulnerability/resilience, and we question the limits of the operative aspect and the durability of the resilience concept on longer temporality and geographical scales.

Sarrazin, C; Gautier, E; Hollé, A; Grancher, D; de Bélizal, E; Hadmoko, DS

Resilience of socio-ecological systems in volcano risk-prone areas, but how much longer? Assessment of adaptive water governance in Merapi volcano, Central Java, Indonesia

Geojournal

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-018-9856-5

The world is changing and facing new challenges such as the effects of climate change, natural disasters, population growth, and urban densification. The rampant development means that urban areas as the most populated area are vulnerable to many challenges and losses. One way to address this is to reduce the effects of disasters by enhancing the performance of cities, in other words increasing their resiliency to make them withstand the impact of unpredictable stresses and shocks. The purpose of this paper is to present an innovative method to identify effective policies and plans, as well as to test alternatives to improve city resiliency. Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) approach in combination with a quantitative resilience measurement tool, developed by theUnited Nations Office of Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR Scorecard) was used for planning and prioritisation of resilience works. The Auckland region in New Zealand was chosen to demonstrate how the concepts and tools found within the study can be applied within the urban context. This study used quantitative data from applying the Scorecard. Then, through data analysis, the usage of system dynamic, causal loop diagram approach, was investigated and recommendation were then provided. The projections provided evidence that CLD offers insight and creates shared understanding about resilience system and how it works. It is through rational debate that a deeper understanding is developed, and resilience system is improved. The diagram provides a visual map of connection among resilience indicators that offer a clear mental model of the resilience system. In enabling a visual output, 'what if' scenarios could be projected to visualize how certain changes made in one indicator (for example, by imposing a policy or plan) can make changes (positive and negative) in other parts. The CLD revealed that all resilience indicators within cities are highly interconnected and that building resilience takes multi-organisational efforts. Therefore, improving resilience in a specific weak area can be achieved with indirect actions by targeting the roots (cross-sectoral). Such intervention then optimises the benefits of the response and spread to a broader area within a cost-effective manner. Nevertheless, it is also important to note that our knowledge in all science is limited and any modelling based on this has flaws and limitations that will need further investigation.

Dianat, H; Wilkinson, S; Williams, P; Khatibi, H

Planning the resilient city: Investigations into using causal loop diagram in combination with UNISDR scorecard for making cities more resilient☆

International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102561

Adaptation to flooding is now widely adopted as an appropriate policy option since flood mitigation measures largely exceed the capability of most developing countries. In wetlands, such as the Okavango Delta, adaptation is more appropriate as these systems serve as natural flood control mechanisms. The Okavango Delta system is subject to annual variability in flooding with extreme floods resulting in adverse impacts on rural livelihoods. This study therefore seeks to improve the general understanding of rural household livelihood adaptation to extreme flooding in the Okavango Delta. Specific objectives are: (1) to assess household access to forms of capital necessary for enhanced capacity to adapt, (2) to assess the impacts of extreme flooding on household livelihoods, and (3) to identify and assess household livelihood responses to extreme flooding. The study uses the sustainable livelihood and the socio-ecological frameworks to analyse the livelihood patterns and resilience to extreme flooding. Results from a survey of 623 households in five villages, key informant interviews, focus group discussions and review of literature, indicate that access to natural capital was generally high, but low for financial, physical, human and social capital. Households mainly relied on farm-based livelihood activities, some non-farm activities, limited rural trade and public transfers. In 2004 and 2009, extreme flooding resulted in livelihood disruptions in the study areas. The main impacts included crop damage, household displacement. destruction of household property, livestock drowning and mud-trapping, the destruction of public infrastructure and disruption of services. The main household coping strategies were labour switching to other livelihood activities, temporary relocation to less affected areas, use of canoes for early harvesting or evacuation and government assistance, particularly for the most vulnerable households. Household adaptive strategies included livelihood diversification, long-term mobility and training in non-agricultural skills. The study concludes that household capacity to adapt to extreme flooding in the study villages largely depends on access to natural capital. This is threatened by population growth, land use changes, policy shifts, upstream developments, global economic changes and flood variations due to climate variability and change. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Motsholapheko, MR; Kgathi, DL; Vanderpost, C

Rural livelihoods and household adaptation to extreme flooding in the Okavango Delta, Botswana

Physics And Chemistry Of The Earth

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2011.08.004

Sanjiangyuan region, which located in the north of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China, is characterized by an extreme environment and is subject to the impacts of climate change and intense human activities. To protect the eco-environment in Sanjiangyuan, the Sanjiangyuan National Nature Reserve (SNNR) was established in 2000, and an ecological project was initiated in 2005. Comprehensive and quantitative evaluation of the eco-environmental vulnerability (EV) and analysis of the long-term dynamic changes in the region are extremely important for understanding eco-environmental change and assessing protection effectiveness, however rarely found in previous research. The aim of this study is to develop a method to assess EV and analyse the dynamic change in Sanjiangyuan region for years 1990, 2000 and 2010. In the first phase of the study, an integrated evaluation method based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) was developed. This phases included: development of the evaluation hierarchical structure and selection criteria; data collection and processing; evaluation criteria normalization; determination of the related importance of the criteria; criteria weighting calculation, and; linear weighted combination. In the second phase of the study, the developed methodology was applied to assess the EV in the Sanjiangyuan region for the years 1990, 2000, and 2010, and to document the dynamic change. In the third phase, a series of integrated regional EV grades were used to analyse the EV change both within and outside of SNNR. The results showed that: 1) EV in the whole Sanjiangyuan region was distributed as a high/low gradient that trends west to east in all three study periods; 2) the dynamic change of EV in Sanjiangyuan region as a whole showed a moderate reduction during 1990-2000, a sizeable and extensive decrease during 2000-2010; and, 3) during the 2000-2010 period, ecological environment change magnitude was significantly better within the Sanjiangyuan National Nature Reserve than for the unprotected areas of the region. The proposed method is relatively easy to implement and could also be applied to other study regions. However, the method could be further improved by reducing some subjective elements. (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Di, L; Cao, CX; Dubovyk, O; Rong, T; Wei, C; Zhuang, QF; Zhao, YJ; Menz, G

Using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process for spatio-temporal analysis of eco-environmental vulnerability change during 1990-2010 in Sanjiangyuan region, China

Ecological Indicators

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.08.031

In this paper, we investigate the ways in which climate change-related interventions such as climate-smart agriculture (CSA) may open up-or close down-spaces for transformation. We explore the interface between worldviews, power relations and policy interventions, focusing in particular on the way that asymmetric gender and expert-farmer relations may be reinforced or contested through climate-smart agricultural interventions. It has been argued that fundamental changes required in the face of climate change can only take place through transformation across the personal, practical and political spheres. In particular, it is in the interaction between these spheres where spaces for transformation lie; for example, in the contesting of subjectivities casting farmers as passive recipients of expert advice, in the assumptions regarding what constitutes good development, and in how worldviews frame the way we see human-nature relations. Nevertheless, interventions like CSA are often focused mainly on changes to practices or technologies, rather than on how power relations or worldviews shape practices, food security and inequity. Through a case study of Hoima, Uganda, we examine the ways in which the implementation of climate-smart agriculture reinforces existing subjectivities and authority relations or opens up for new (and potentially more emancipatory) subjectivities. First, we describe food security and social inequality drawing on survey data from Hoima. Next, we examine how social actors such as farmers, project workers, local leaders, and government officials position particular farmers or practices as good/progressive or problematic/traditional. We then analyze how these subjectivities reflect authority relations, and the ways in which CSA reinforces or creates space for contesting these. We argue that a focus on commercial agriculture as good by many social actors also persists within CSA activities, and is intertwined with asymmetric gender and expert-farmer relations. Commercialization takes place within the need to increase agricultural production to feed growing urban populations. However, commercialization for the case of Uganda has also entailed state attempts to govern farmers through farmer associations, the institutional set-up through which CSA often works. A closer attention to these dynamics could potentially help create deeper transformational change through climate-smart agriculture and related climate change interventions.

Eriksen, SH; Cramera, LK; Vetrhus, I; Thornton, P

Can Climate Interventions Open Up Space for Transformation? Examining the Case of Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) in Uganda

Frontiers In Sustainable Food Systems

https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2019.00111

An assessment of land suitability classes for rainfed maize (spring-summer agricultural cycle) with current climate conditions (1950-2000) and projected climate change scenarios was carried out for Mexico. The method considered the most restrictive factors or agroclimatic requirements from different variables needed by rainfed maize. These factors were analyzed spatially in a geographic information systems (GIS) context, resulting in areas classified into four suitability levels: high, medium, low, and not suitable for maize. We considered two general circulation models (GCM): HADGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-LR; one radiative forcing concentration representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5 Wm(-2) and the far period (2075-2099). Results at a national-level analysis showed that under actual conditions, 57.5% of the area of Mexico presents some level of suitability for rainfed maize. The high suitability class is 11.4% of the country, while 20.7% and 25.3% had medium and low suitability levels, respectively. Other results showed that with the HADGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-LR projections of climate change models, 50.4% and 46.7%, of Mexico's continental area, respectively, present some level of suitability for the rainfed maize crop. In the first case, with respect to the present climate conditions, the HADGEM2-ES model presented an area decrease of -2.4% and the MPI-ESM-LR model of -5.5% in the high suitability level for the rainfed maize crop. Results at a state-level analysis showed there are five states (Jalisco, Campeche, Oaxaca, Chiapas, and Michoacan) in the interval of more than 50,000 km(2) of surface with high and medium suitability levels, with a maximum extent change between the present to the projected climate conditions of -46% for the HADGEM2-ES and -57% for the MPI-ESM-LR. In general, the MPI-ESM-LR model showed the most adverse projected conditions for rainfed maize growth.

López-Blanco, J; Pérez-Damián, JL; Conde-Alvarez, AC; Gómez-Díaz, JD; Monterroso-Rivas, AI

Land suitability levels for rainfed maize under current conditions and climate change projections in Mexico

Outlook On Agriculture

https://doi.org/10.1177/0030727018794973

Improved weather and climate forecast information services are important to sustain small-scale crop production in many developing countries. Previous studies recognized the value of integrating local forecasting knowledge (LFK) with scientific forecasting knowledge (SFK) to support farmers' decision-making. Yet, little work has focused on proper documentation, quality verification, and integration techniques. The skills of local and scientific forecasts were compared, and new integration approaches were derived over the coastal zone of Ghana. LFK indicators were documented, and farmers were trained to collect indicators' observations and record rainfall in real time using digital tools and rain gauges, respectively, in 2019. Dichotomous forecasts verification metrics were then used to verify the skills of both local and scientific forecasts against rainfall records. Farmers use a diverse set of LKF indicators for both weather and seasonal climate time-scale predictions. LFK indicators are mainly used to predict rainfall occurrence, amount of seasonal rainfall, dry spell occurrence, and onset and cessation of the rainy season. The average skill of a set of LFK indicators in predicting one-day rainfall is higher than individual LFK indicators. Also, the skills of a set of LFK indicators can potentially be higher than the forecasts given by the Ghana Meteorological Agency for the Ada District. The results of the documentation and skills indicate that approaches and methods developed for integrating LFK and SFK can contribute to increasing forecast resolution and skills and reducing recurring tensions between the two knowledge systems. Future research and application of these methods can help improve weather and climate information services in Ghana. Significance StatementMost African farmers still rely on local or traditional knowledge on weather and climate forecasts to manage climate variability and change, although there is much effort to reach farmers with the increasing availability of scientific forecasts and data. Exploring the potential of local forecasts and the possible integration with modern forecasts has been suggested as a path to reach out to farmers with more accessible and credible climate information services (CIS). We aimed to understand the contribution of this local knowledge by documenting and investigating its quality. We found that local forecast indicators used by farmers are diverse, and their level of quality can potentially improve the development of CIS, especially when they are combined or integrated with scientific forecasts.

Gbangou, T; Van Slobbe, E; Ludwig, F; Kranjac-Berisavljevic, G; Paparrizos, S

Harnessing Local Forecasting Knowledge on Weather and Climate in Ghana: Documentation, Skills, and Integration with Scientific Forecasting Knowledge

Weather Climate And Society

https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-20-0012.1

The impact of anthropogenic activities on the spatiotemporal dynamics of the forest of Dogo-Ketou has been studied in relation to climate change observed in southeastern Benin. Especially, this study has detected the changes in climate parameters in southeast Benin from 1954 to 2016 and in forestland use from 1986 to 2018. A climatic break was detected, and the annual and monthly rainfall and temperature averages, the rainfall indexes, the concentration of precipitation, the number of rainy days according to the World Meteorological Organization and the bioclimatic aridity indexes were assessed. A GIS analysis was also performed based on Landsat images from 1986, 2000 and 2018 to detect the dynamic of land use and land cover of the classified forest of Dogo-Ketou. Excel 2016, R-x64 4.1.2, Rclimdex(301), Khronostat(1.01) and ArcGIS were used. The rainfall series showed a break in 1969. The segment from 1954 to 1968 was a period of excess rainfall with an average of 1420.46 mm/year. The segment from 1969 to 2016 was a rainfall deficit period with a reduction of 12 to 37% of rainy days and an increase of dry days for 21.4 days/year. In this last segment, southeast Benin experienced trends of its climate towards a sub-arid and arid climate. The agglomerations and bare soil of the forest of Dogo-Ketou increased to an area almost double the size between 1986 and 2018. The tree and shrub savannas gained in space from 12.1% in 2000 to 38.9% in 2018 and the dense forest and wooded savannas regressed by 52.6% in 1986 to 36.1% in 2000 then to 4.3% of the forest area in 2018. The subequatorial climate of southeastern Benin is gradually evolving towards a dry climate. The dense forest in this area is also gradually disappearing, giving way to savannas. This transformation towards the savannas was due to anthropogenic actions whose effects were strongly accentuated by climate change in this part of Benin and West Africa.

Kingbo, A; Teka, O; Aoudji, AKN; Ahohuendo, B; Ganglo, JC

Climate Change in Southeast Benin and Its Influences on the Spatio-Temporal Dynamic of Forests, Benin, West Africa

Forests

https://doi.org/10.3390/f13050698