Datasets:

G11

/

climate_adaptation_abstracts_v1

like 1

Although climate change is expected to increase vulnerabilities, marginalization, and sufferings of many in the Global South, impacts will be unevenly felt across social strata. Intersectionalities of social difference, especially along gender and class lines, differentiate the ways in which impacts of climate change are experienced and responded to. Feminist political ecology and feminist geography insights can explain how different groups of people understand, respond to, and cope with variability and uncertainties in nuanced and critical ways, thereby elucidating the gendered implications of climate change. With a regional focus on South Asia, the article underscores the key issues that can be applied geographically elsewhere. Gendered implications of climate change in South Asia are particularly poignant as patriarchal norms, inequities, and inequalities often place women and men in differentiated positions in their abilities to respond to and cope with dramatic changes in socioecological relations but also foreground the complex ways in which social power relations operate in communal responses to adaptation strategies. This is particularly evident in water-related productive and reproductive tasks in agrarian societies that constitute the majority of South Asia. As climate change is expected to exacerbate both ecological degradation (e.g., water shortages) and water-related natural hazards (e.g., floods, cyclones), thereby transforming gender-water geographies, it becomes imperative to undertake careful multiscalar and critical analyses to better inform policymaking. This article elucidates the complex ways that climate change will affect gender and social relations, thereby highlighting the ways that existing policy narratives and adaptation programs might be better informed by geographical insights. To this end, the article encourages feminist and critical geographers to more forcefully and fruitfully engage with global debates on climate change.

Sultana, F

Gendering Climate Change: Geographical Insights

Professional Geographer

https://doi.org/10.1080/00330124.2013.821730

The process of contemporary environmental change is characterized by being global, considering that for a long time, the impacts were more local.The first point is to highlight the difference between climate change and environmental change:the first is related to climate imbalances, while the second analyses not only the climate imbalances, but also other planet dynamics, such as the infrastructure, the resources exploitation, how territories are occupied and changed in the biogeochemical cycle of the planet; this is part of a broader vision of the planet and all the relations inside of it, the world-ecology.The second point to highlight is the social perspective of the global environmental changes, which means, it is not only a physical process, but rather a social, economic and political one. It is a social process because of how societies exploit the resources, including the workforce, and which may result in environmental impacts. It is essential to note that these changes do not occur in a homogeneous way because its main characteristic is to be heterogeneous. Still though, considering countries' historical characteristics- the level of social and economic inequality, the demographic components, the consumption modes, among others- there are huge differences in terms of the intensity of the disasters faced and how they impact the populations (the environmental events that directly affect human populations). The study topic of this paper is the Global South territories.The Global South is composed of countries from Latin America, Asia and Africa.They all have (in different intensities) a history of colonialism based on the massive exploitation of resources and human beings, first from the slavery system, and afterwards from low wages.The importance of focusing on the Global South is twofold: 1) the impacts of environmental changes directly affect their populations; 2) there is need to introduce a perspective from the Global South in order to tell its own history.This second reason is well related to the idea studied from a World-Ecology perspective, as it shows the world as an interconnected system that changes and influences itself the whole time with power/exploitation dynamics and not as separated entities, as some dualist/Cartesian perspectives may indicate. During the colonialism period, colonies had to export raw material, while they import manufactured products, which is part of the international division of labour; the South is specialized mostly in raw material and agriculture, while the North is specialized in technologies and industries.

De Paula, SA; de Mello, LF

Vulnerability and human mobility: a perspective from the Global South about colonialism and history

Relaciones Internacionales-Madrid

https://doi.org/10.15366/relacionesinternacionales2021.47.011

Saltwater intrusion affected seriously the livelihood of mangosteen growers in Ben Tre, a coastal province in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta in 2016. This study assesses how saltwater intrusion influenced the livelihood vulnerability of the mangosteen households and communities. This study used the United Nations' Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and a similar index from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (LVI-IPCC) using data from 196 interviewed mangosteen growers in Cho Lach district, Ben Tre province in 2016 and 2018. A total of twenty-five (25) indicators are applied to calculate the two indices, using data as exposure to saltwater intrusion and natural hazards (5), socio-demographic factors (11), and sensitivity of health, finance, and source of water for domestic use (9). Results. The analysis results show that mangosteen-growing households had a medium vulnerability in 2016 and 2018 based on both indices. However, they were extremely vulnerable due to saltwater intrusion in 2016, and a high household percentage had a moderate value in the vulnerability index. They did not experience how to respond to saltwater intrusion and received a late warning on saltwater intrusion from the local authorities and media. However, mangosteen-growing households had a quick adaptive behavior to shift to new crops to improve their income in 2018. The study provides a set of indicators to assess the vulnerability of this low-vulnerable area based on past studies as well as the actual situation of the study area in 2016 and 2018 to determine what factors influenced the main components, LVI and LVI - IPCC. These indicators represented the characteristics of the rural households in Vietnam and other Asian countries. This research also indicated how LVI and LVI - IPCC results differently and when they should be used. The analysis identified the factors influencing the LVI and LVI - IPCC by levels of saltwater intrusion in different years of 2016 and 2018, two different severe and less severe sites, adaptive and non-adaptive households, and their interaction.

Truc, NTT; Thuc, LV

IMPACT OF SALTWATER INTRUSION ON RELATION TO FRUIT GROWING HOUSEHOLDS IN BEN TRE, VIETNAM

Agricultural And Resource Economics-International Scientific E-Journal

In response to increasing environmental and social changes in the past few decades, some Inuit hunters have been turning to scientific tools to help evaluate sea ice conditions. Simultaneously, there has been more scientific interest in understanding local scale processes through Inuit knowledge in order to develop a broader comprehension of dynamic sea ice conditions and implications of long-term change. Building on several years of collaborative research with Inuit sea ice experts in Cape Dorset, Igloolik, and Pangnirtung, Nunavut, and local expressions of interest in increased access and availability of satellite imagery of sea ice, the Polar View Floe Edge Service was expanded to each community in the spring of 2007. Follow-up workshops in November 2007 helped to evaluate and improve the service by considering previous local uses of satellite imagery and tailoring Floe Edge Service regions of interest to local areas of sea ice use. Through workshop discussions, several opportunities for the use of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery emerged, including: seeing what is on (or within/under) the ice; monitoring seasonal and long-term sea ice changes; hazards assessment; planning travel routes; and facilitating search and rescue operations. A number of challenges were also identified, such as: SAR image interpretation; image spatial resolution; frequency of image acquisition; SAR image representation capabilities; and technological limitations. The workshops also provided some insights into intercultural and intergenerational exchanges and led to a number of recommendations to continue expanding and improving the Floe Edge Service. This case study shows how remote sensing can be incorporated into the suite of traditional indicators and technological tools that hunters draw upon in their evaluations of complex human-animal-environment assessments. In the face of declining and unpredictable sea ice conditions, bridging scales and knowledge systems will be essential in developing integrated monitoring systems to respond to increased political and economic pressures as well as safety concerns for travelling on or within ice-covered oceans.

Laidler, GJ; Hirose, T; Kapfer, M; Ikummaq, T; Joamie, E; Elee, P

Evaluating the Floe Edge Service: how well can SAR imagery address Inuit community concerns around sea ice change and travel safety?

Canadian Geographer-Geographe Canadien

https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1541-0064.2010.00347.x

According to dominant narratives about adaptation to climate change, those facing worst-case scenarios, without means at their disposal to adapt in situ, face an ineluctable set of adaptation strategies that ultimately includes the permanent abandonment of geographic spaces rendered uninhabitable and unproductive for human use. Yet environmental stress and adaptive capacity are distributed unevenly, and power structures play a role in fashioning them. It is argued here that when access to land and water are impacted by environmental stress, the structures that mediate their access are reinforced, even as the adaptive alternatives for smallholders are undermined. In this way, dominant resource regimes set up migration as the primary viable alternative for adaptation among a dwindling set of choices. This framework is applied to two early analogues of climate change impacts: flooded Garifuna villages of Honduras's North Coast and communities enduring glacier recession and shifting hydrologic regimes in Peru's Cordillera Blanca. In both cases, stress motivates new forms of migration that reinforce dominant power structures. In Honduras, migrants from wealthier social strata are moving on a more permanent basis, and in Peru, the once historical pattern of labor migration is becoming a practical necessity. These cases underscore the role of political economy in adaptation to climate change and adaptive migration in particular.

Wrathall, DJ; Bury, J; Carey, M; Mark, B; McKenzie, J; Young, K; Baraer, M; French, A; Rampini, C

Migration Amidst Climate Rigidity Traps: Resource Politics and Social-Ecological Possibilism in Honduras and Peru

Annals Of The Association Of American Geographers

https://doi.org/10.1080/00045608.2013.873326

Coastal urban cities frequently face multiple hazards, including potentially disastrous extreme events. To combat this, vulnerability assessment is essential to developing an effective mitigation strategy. This study proposes a framework to assess the vulnerability of any densely populated urban area to disasters by considering both the population and the assets that are at risk. A set of indicators is also proposed to assess the vulnerability of social and socioeconomic systems, infrastructure, critical facilities, and adaptive capacity. The components of vulnerability were evaluated individually, using an accessible open source geographic information system at a fine 1-km grid scale, providing an insight into the spatial variability of the vulnerability. The optimal weight for individual indicators was assigned using data envelopment analysis to minimize subjective judgment and establish confidence in the results obtained. To decorrelate and reduce the dimensionality of the multivariate data, principal component analysis was performed. The proposed methodology was demonstrated on the twenty-four wards of Mumbai under the jurisdiction of the Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai and showed the mideastern part of Mumbai as the most vulnerablemainly due to the increase in population and the marginal workers' ratio. A reduction in social vulnerability has been observed, however, across the city through improvement in the literacy rate and the main workers' ratio.

Sherly, MA; Karmakar, S; Parthasarathy, D; Chan, T; Rau, C

Disaster Vulnerability Mapping for a Densely Populated Coastal Urban Area: An Application to Mumbai, India

Annals Of The Association Of American Geographers

https://doi.org/10.1080/00045608.2015.1072792

Transdisciplinary research is a promising approach to address sustainability challenges arising from global environmental change, as it is characterized by an iterative process that brings together actors from multiple academic fields and diverse sectors of society to engage in mutual learning with the intent to co-produce new knowledge. We present a conceptual model to guide the implementation of environmental transdisciplinary work, which we consider a science with society (SWS) approach, providing suggested activities to conduct throughout a seven-step process. We used a survey with 168 respondents involved in environmental transdisciplinary work worldwide to evaluate the relative importance of these activities and the skills and characteristics required to implement them successfully, with attention to how responses differed according to the gender, geographic location, and positionality of the respondents. Flexibility and collaborative spirit were the most frequently valued skills in SWS, though non-researchers tended to prioritize attributes like humility, trust, and patience over flexibility. We also explored the relative significance of barriers to successful SWS, finding insufficient time and unequal power dynamics were the two most significant barriers to successful SWS. Together with case studies of respondents' most successful SWS projects, we create a toolbox of 20 best practices that can be used to overcome barriers and increase the societal and scientific impacts of SWS projects. Project success was perceived to be significantly higher where there was medium to high policy impact, and projects initiated by practitioners/other stakeholders had a larger proportion of high policy impact compared to projects initiated by researchers only. Communicating project results to academic audiences occurred more frequently than communicating results to practitioners or the public, despite this being ranked less important overall. We discuss how these results point to three recommendations for future SWS: 1) balancing diverse perspectives through careful partnership formation and design; 2) promoting communication, learning, and reflexivity (i.e., questioning assumptions, beliefs, and practices) to overcome conflict and power asymmetries; and 3) increasing policy impact for joint science and society benefits. Our study highlights the benefits of diversity in SWS -both in the types of people and knowledge included as well as the methods used -and the potential benefits of this approach for addressing the increasingly complex challenges arising from global environmental change. characteristics required to implement them successfully, with attention to how responses differed according to the gender, geographic location, and positionality of the respondents

Steger, C; Klein, JA; Reid, RS; Lavorel, S; Tucker, C; Hopping, KA; Marchant, R; Teel, T; Cuni-Sanchez, A; Dorjii, T; Greenwood, G; Huber, R; Kassam, KA; Kreuer, D; Nolinn, A; Russello, A; Sharp, JL; Hribar, MS; Thorn, JPR; Grants, G; Mahdi, M; Morenou, M; Waiswav, D

Science with society: Evidence-based guidance for best practices in environmental transdisciplinary work

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102240

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess the progresses made by the Potenza province in implementing #weResilient strategy, a risk-informed sustainable development policy-making action at territorial/local levels based on a structural combination of environmental sustainability, territorial safety and climate change contrasting policies; results obtained in supporting and coordinating the municipalities of the provincial territory for creating local conditions to manage risks and sustainable development with a multiscale and multilevel holistic approach based on a wide-area outlook and so contributing directly to the SFDRR Target E, SDGs 11 and 13 and to other goals and targets; The effectiveness of the accountability system on which the approach is based. Design/methodology/approach The conceptual basis: A strong governance based on multi-stakeholder and community engagement; The interdisciplinary nature of risk; Enhancing local resilience is an essential pre-condition for achieving all of the SDGs; Downscaling the experience of Potenza Province to the urban context; 10;The design: Description of #weResilient, the multiscale and multilevel approach in Local Resilience and sustainable development adopted by the Province of Potenza: the Vision and institutional commitment; the accountability; the multi-stakeholder engagement; community and people-centered iaction; the achieved results; the critical points. Description and analysis of the performed supportive actions to the municipalities with a subsidiary and wide-area approach. Findings A significant progress in establishing the basis for a risk-informed decision-making at local level; Further significant progresses in promoting inclusive Resilience across the provincial territory; Progress in Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and disaster risk-informed Sustainable Development at local level, including in support of the 2030 Agenda, the Paris Agreement and the New Urban Agenda. Achievements and progresses made in local communities engagement; Achievements in performing actions for including communities and people in relevant institutional decision making processes, building capacities, developing capabilities, raising awareness, increasing political will and public support in local disaster risk reduction and achievement of the SDGs.

Attolico, A; Smaldone, R

The #weResilient strategy for downscaling local resilience and sustainable development: the Potenza province and municipalities of Potenza and Pignola case

Disaster Prevention And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/DPM-04-2020-0130

The arid and semi-arid regions account for approximately 30% of the world total area and are inhabited by approximately 20% of the total world population. Issues of present and future climate variability and change on agriculture and forestry in the arid and semi-arid tropics of the world were examined and discussion under each of these issues had been presented separately for Asia, Africa and Latin America. Several countries in tropical Asia have reported increasing surface temperature trends in recent decades. Although, there is no definite trend discernible in the long-term mean for precipitation for the tropical Asian region, many countries have shown a decreasing trend in rainfall in the past three decades. African rainfall has changed substantially over the last 60 yr and a number of theoretical, modelling and empirical analyses have suggested that noticeable changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, including floods may occur when there are only small changes in climate. Climate in Latin America is affected by the El Ni (n) over tildeo-southern oscillation (ENSO) phases and there is a close relationship between the increase and decrease of rainfall depending upon the warm or cold phases of the phenomenon. Over land regions of Asia, the projected area-averaged annual mean warming is likely to be 1.6 +/- 0.2 degrees C in the 2020s, 3.1 +/- 0.3 degrees C in the 2050s, and 4.6 +/- 0.4 degrees C in the 2080s and the models show high uncertainty in projections of future winter and summer precipitation. Future annual warming across Africa is projected to range from 0.2 degrees C per decade to more than 0.5 degrees C per decade, while future changes in mean seasonal rainfall in Africa are less well defined. In Latin America, projections indicate a slight increase in temperature and changes in precipitation. Impacts of climate variability and changes are discussed with suitable examples. Agricultural productivity in tropical Asia is sensitive not only to temperature increases, but also to changes in the nature and characteristics of monsoon. Simulations of the impacts of climate change using crop simulation models show that crop yield decreases due to climate change could have serious impacts on food security in tropical Asia. Climate change is likely to cause environmental and social stress in many of Asia's rangelands and drylands.

Sivakumar, MVK; Das, HP; Brunini, O

Impacts of present and future climate variability and change on agriculture and forestry in the arid and semi-arid tropics

Climatic Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-5937-9

The increasing frequency of extreme events in West Africa, such as droughts and floods, has made populations that base their subsistence mostly on rainfed agriculture even more vulnerable to climate threats. Climate Ser-vices (CS) are largely acknowledged as effective tools for tackling climate risks in agriculture, particularly in semi-arid developing countries but evidences of their effectiveness are still jeopardized. In Niger a climate service (CS) has been set up in the regions of Dosso and Tillabe acute accent ri by the National Meteorological Service (NMS) to provide salient information for smallholder farmers. The CS was built on a robust collaboration among NMS, local extension services and authorities and farmers in 8 municipalities. The case study shows that a large share of farmers receives throughout the cropping season climatic information and advice via roving seminars and various media, including instant messaging services and radio broadcasts. Nevertheless, the results indicate that access to CS alone doesn't imply relevant positive impacts on crop yields while the training of farmers in the use of the information results to be a significant factor. Indeed, in 2020, yields of trained farmers are significantly higher by around 17% compared to those of non-trained ones. Training and iterative interaction between farmers and NMS could also have indirect effects on information uptake, contributing to building reciprocal trust and therefore stronger action by trained farmers. The study confirms the importance of the social learning process in CS co-development. Since the study is limited by the small sample and the dataset covering only one cropping season, further research is needed to deepen cost-benefit analysis and disentangle the relative contribution of the CS components to yield increase. Indeed, evidences of the positive impact of CS could represent a leverage for local governments and international funders to support CS co-development and related capacity building activities. Practical implication: Climate variability and a strong increase in extreme hydro meteorological events are affecting agriculture production and exacerbating food insecurity in West Africa. In Niger, the vulnerability of agricultural production systems is coupled to ecosystem fragility and soil degradation. In this area, the rural population is the most vulnerable to climate threats because they have a reduced capability to implement effective risk reduction and climate change adaptation strategies and national government has limited resources to invest in climate policies.

Bacci, M; Idrissa, OA; Zini, C; Burrone, S; Sitta, AA; Tarchiani, V

Effectiveness of agrometeorological services for smallholder farmers: The case study in the regions of Dosso and Tillab?eri in Niger

Climate Services

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100360

This article calls for a stronger engagement by geographers with the concept of socionature as a vehicle for guiding adaptation thinking in development planning. Drawing on literatures from poststructuralist geographies, it argues for a relational, hybrid ontology of climate change adaptation grounded in multiple perspectives, knowledges, and more-than-human relations. Going beyond this stance, a framework based on the idea of planning with climate change is proposed for a revised approach to adaptation that calls for more-than-social planning practices embedded in radically more integrative planning processes and the redistribution of power across the climate and planning systems. The article ends by highlighting some of the key challenges that such a project faces for scholars working in the field of planning and development research. Key Words: climate change adaptation, development, human geography, planning, poststructuralist theory.

Dujardin, S

Planning with Climate Change? A Poststructuralist Approach to Climate Change Adaptation

Annals Of The American Association Of Geographers

https://doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2019.1664888

Climate change, sea-level rise, land subsidence, and rapid urbanization are likely to increase flood risk in low-lying coastal cities in the future, posing serious challenges to urban sustainability. To quantitatively assess the future trends of flood risks and to carry out effective adaptation measures are among the hot topics for flood risk management. A sound answer needs fine-scale data to support an integrative analysis of hydrology-hydrodynamic processes, socio-economic impacts, and adaptation measures. In this regard, this paper puts forward a set of multidisciplinary and comprehensive methods to address the frontier scientific issues. First, internet big data and machine learning methods were adopted to map the building footprint height, and its economic values, providing a fine-scale spatial and economic information of elements at risk. The residential building footprint was mapped with an accuracy of 92.8%, and the housing price was derived via web crawler from different online real estate websites. Second, the hydrology-hydrodynamic models of TOMAWAC, TELEMAC and MIKE 1D/2D were integrated to simulate four storm-surge flooding scenarios. The scenarios are based on the real Typhoon event TC9711 on August 18, 1997, whereby the wind wave. tide. 1D flood, and 2D flood processes are simulated and flood scenarios of four different return periods are extrapolated. Especially, for future scenarios in 2050, sea level rise and land subsidence are also considered. Third, the expected annual damage (EAD) is estimated via risk analysis technique with combination of flood maps in the four return periods and the fine-scale exposure data. Finally, a cost-benefit analysis was done to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of two flood adaptation measures, i.e., dry flood-proofing and wet flood-proofing measures, for residential buildings. Taking Shanghai as an example, the above methods were applied to comprehensively assess the storm-caused flood risk of residential buildings, its future trends to 2050, and the costs and benefits of two adaptation measures.

Shan, XM; Du, SQ; Wang, LY; Zhang, M; Li, WJ; Hu, HZ; Wen, JH

Flood risk dynamics and adaptation analyses for coastal cities based on internet big data and hydrology-hydrodynamic models

Chinese Science Bulletin-Chinese

https://doi.org/10.1360/TB-2020-1536

In recent decades, traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) has played an increasing role in wildlife management and biodiversity conservation in Canada and elsewhere. This study examined the potential contribution that Inuit TEK (which is one aspect of Inuit Qaujimajatuqangit or Inuit traditional knowledge) could offer to detect and monitor avian cholera and other disease-related mortality among Northern Common Eiders (Somateria mollissima borealis) breeding in the eastern Canadian Arctic. Avian cholera is an infectious disease (Pasteurella multocida) that has been a major conservation issue because of its potential to cause high rates of disease and mortality in several bird species in repeating epizootics; it has spread geographically in North America since the 1940s. Inuit hunters from Ivujivik, Nunavik, Quebec, were the first to detect avian disease outbreaks among Northern Common Eiders nesting in northeastern Hudson Bay and western Hudson Strait. Laboratory analysis of bird tissues confirmed avian cholera in that region. From 2007 to 2009, we collected Inuit TEK about mortality among Common Eiders and other bird species north and west of where the outbreaks were first detected. During interviews in the communities of Kimmirut, Cape Dorset, Coral Harbour, and Igloolik, Nunavut, Canada (n = 40), Inuit participants reported seeing a total of 8 Common Eiders and 41 specimens of other bird species either sick or dead in northern Hudson Strait, Hudson Bay, and Foxe Basin. Most of the observed disease and mortality events were at sea, on sea ice, or on small nesting islands. Such events probably would have gone undetected by biologists, who were mainly monitoring avian cholera outbreaks on large nesting islands in that region. Inuit participants readily recalled details about the timing, location, and numbers of sick and dead birds that they observed. Some reported signs of disease that were consistent with avian cholera. Inuit also revealed knowledge of two past bird mass mortality events that took place about 60 years and a century ago. Those interviewed indicated that that bird mass mortality events potentially caused by avian cholera had not occurred in the study area prior to 2004, supporting the hypothesis that avian cholera emerged only recently in the eastern Canadian Arctic.

Henri, DA; Jean-Gagnon, F; Gilchrist, HG

Using Inuit traditional ecological knowledge for detecting and monitoring avian cholera among Common Eiders in the eastern Canadian Arctic

Ecology And Society

https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09289-230122

During the last few years the world has witnessed severe climatic conditions, be it in the form of unprecedented droughts or devastating floods, tornadoes, landslides along with major earthquakes and Tsunamis. Are these natural calamities natural and normal or are these the manifestation of man's adverse impact on the environment? If the nature and frequency of numerous geo-climatic upheavals that the earth is experiencing is compared to the worst case scenario of the climate change advocates, the resemblance seems similar. An explanation for this could be the fact that mankind does not know how to reign in its need for continuous economic growth without adversely affecting ecological sustainability! This problem of achieving and maintaining sustained economic growth seems to be a problem that is unique to the modern post industrial economy. It is being increasingly realized that the ancient civilizations may have economic systems and practices that was based on living in harmony with nature. Hence, there is a growing clamor to learn from the wisdom of the ancients and incorporate their ideas and practices or in other words learn from the philosophies that have stood the test of time. That tribal wisdom may be better equipped to deal with natural calamity was vividly displayed a few years ago in India. When the massive Tsunami of December 26th, 2004 ravaged Asia, one of the hardest hit region was the remote chain of some 500 islands known collectively as the Andaman and Nicobar. Inhabited by hunter gatherer tribes that have little contact with the outside world, anthropologists initially feared the tribes could have been completely wiped out. However it was soon discovered that the tribal community used their ancient knowledge of nature to escape the Tsunami. One of the tribes that lives there are the Onge. They are estimated to have lived in the islands for 30000-50000 years. Numbering some one hundred individuals, they are on the verge of extinction. However, in the Tsunami, they suffered no casualties as their folklore speaks of large waves that follows earthquakes, so all of them retreated to the high grounds. As north east India is home to numerous traditional societies that have followed old age practices up to the modern times, this region could make significant contribution to the sustainability discourse.

Kakoty, S

Ecology, sustainability and traditional wisdom

Journal Of Cleaner Production

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.11.036

Purpose This study aims to understand the mechanisms that contribute to the construction of the resilience of populations to urban flooding. It therefore proposes to analyse the strategies and attitudes developed by households subjected to floods to maintain and rebuild themselves despite the damage in the urbanised mangrove swamp of the south of the city. Design/methodology/approach The fieldwork consisted of observing the behaviours, practices and attitudes of households to flooding in the study area. In addition to observations, the fieldwork included interviews (60), focus groups (10), completion of 260 questionnaires by heads of households and field mapping. The sample was determined by the non-probability quota method. The data processing involved the extraction of descriptive and multivariate statistics as well as content analysis. Findings The rapid growth of Douala leads to vulnerabilities through the spontaneous occupation of mangrove areas, thus aggravating the impacts of the floods that occur. Afterwards, the analysis of the individual and collective responses of the inhabitants of the study area highlighted resilience in action. This resilience is expressed in two ways: the individual ability of the inhabitants to exploit internal/psychological and external resources/personal social capital to absorb the shock; and the capacity for self-organisation and learning which is manifested by the use of feedback in the reconstruction phase to transform the disaster into an opportunity for territorial development. Research limitations/implications Two main limitations of this work should be noted and are as follows. The study is only centred on an urbanised mangrove area, although there are others: Does the research hypothesis also apply to other urbanised mangrove areas? Flooding is not specific to mangrove areas. Other spontaneous non-mangrove neighbourhoods are subject to flooding. The results of this study give the impression that resilience capacities are paradoxically manifested in the most vulnerable neighbourhoods. This impression needs to be confirmed by further studies for a comparative synthesis of the experience of shocks between spontaneous neighbourhoods and planned neighbourhoods. Practical implications Urban flooding is one of many physical phenomena that scientists and technologists are learning about and trying to anticipate, avoid, and prepare for. Governments are simultaneously implementing policies for prevention, monitoring, warning, and reaction. If this analysis does not take into account the intrinsic capacities of the populations to cope with dangers, accept responsibility for their actions, and take significant local action when necessary, this framework will still be inadequate.

Djomekui, BLS; Yemmafouo, A

Population resilience to flooding in the urbanised mangrove of Douala, Cameroon

International Journal Of Disaster Resilience In The Built Environment

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDRBE-04-2022-0040

Indigenous Peoples in the Arctic have for millennia relied on freshwaters for drinking water and freshwater species that comprise important subsistence harvests, which promotes a strong connection to the land and unique understanding of organisms and ecosystem processes and changes. Despite the importance of freshwater biodiversity and ecosystem services to Arctic Indigenous communities, there have been limited attempts to summarise available Indigenous Knowledge (IK) regarding Arctic freshwater systems and to understand how conservation can benefit from this knowledge base. This paper presents a systematic review of literature documenting circumpolar Arctic IK with a focus on freshwater biodiversity in Canada, Greenland, Fennoscandia (Norway, Sweden, and Finland), Russia, and the U.S.A. (Alaska). Standardised search terms and methodologies were used to locate relevant documents using Google Scholar and Google Advanced search engines. Thematic coding was used to identify freshwater biodiversity themes within the identified documents. Documented IK of freshwater biodiversity was found from all five geographic regions and included data on both species presence and habitat changes with potential to affect biodiversity. Canada had the highest number of relevant documents (n = 127), followed by the U.S.A. (Alaska;n = 116), Fennoscandia (n = 38), Russia (n = 27), and Greenland (n = 5). The number of relevant documents with IK published per year was highest in most recent years, from 2010 onwards, in all geographic regions. Fish represented the highest number of faunal observations with 59 species observed, approximately half of which were Salmonidae (29 species). Local-scale assessment of fish diversity found observations of the highest number of species (11-25) in Alaska, and individual observations of 6-10 species were found throughout Alaska, mainland areas of Canada, and the Kola Peninsula in Russia. Documented IK also contributed new information on historical fish diversity and indicated local-scale loss or gain of species. Such information is of vital importance to provide long-term records of fish composition and abundance, especially when this information does not exist in other knowledge bases such as western science datasets.

Knopp, JA; Levenstein, B; Watson, A; Ivanova, I; Lento, J

Systematic review of documented Indigenous Knowledge of freshwater biodiversity in the circumpolar Arctic

Freshwater Biology

https://doi.org/10.1111/fwb.13570

China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a massive development plan in terms of scale and scope. It aims at facilitating China's connectivity with the rest of the world through trade, investment, and infrastructure projects. BRI encompasses seven economic corridors, which cover over 100 countries. Consequently, the spectrum of their social and ecological conditions is diverse and broad. To date, no systematic BRI scale study exists to assess the ecological challenges of these economic corridors and associate the challenges with the BRI's capacity to cope with them. Thus, it is of profound importance to understand the complex interactions between human (socialeconomic) and natural (ecological) systems, which are essential to design sustainable development policies in this vast region. This challenging task requires innovative and interdisciplinary research approaches in a policy relevant way. We address this gap by presenting a data-driven geospatial analysis on this complex entity using the Social-Ecological Systems approach. Methodologically, we use resilience analysis, as an equilibrium concept of Ecological Vulnerability (EV) and Adaptive Capacity (AC). A high-resolution geospatial resilience (the ability to withstand and reorganize disruptions when experiencing changes) mapping is made for the river basins along the BRI corridors to identify the drivers of resilience from 1990 to 2015. The results reveal highly diverse patterns of these drivers across the BRI economic corridors. The differences among the corridors grew within the study period. The root cause for the low resilience along the 21st-C Maritime Silk Road (predominantly the African continent) is low adaptive capacity, whereas higher ecological vulnerability is the main reason along the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar, China-Pakistan, China-Central-Asia-West Asia, and China-Indochina Peninsula economic corridors. Further adaptation measures are needed to mitigate the risks related to decreased AC levels and increased EV levels. Investments under the initiative should better combine adequate physical infrastructure with improving institutional (both human talent development and efficient governance) and economic capacities to cope with the existing ecological vulnerability challenges. Finally, this study highlights that over time, AC has shown notable improvements, particularly in Asia, and in contrast to a less volatile EV.

Battamo, AY; Varis, O; Sun, PZ; Yang, YK; Oba, BT; Zhao, L

Mapping socio-ecological resilience along the seven economic corridors of the Belt and Road Initiative

Journal Of Cleaner Production

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.127341

Sea level rise and floods have an important majority among the environmental problems due to global warming and climate change in the 21st century. Floods are becoming a threat to the coastal areas where physical and socio-economic focal points are mostly concentrated that may be affected by this change and has a risk of being underwater. Any changes at sea-level rise are thought to have important consequences for coastal cities which are mostly preferred for living and as trade and tourism centres. In addition to the basic problems in coastal cities, such as an increase in population and urbanisation, the effects of climate change reinfin-ce the pressure on cities, which has been resulting in the unbalance between city structure, structure nature, and city-structure-nature. It is important to develop adaptation strategies for the formation of well-balanced natural and built environments that are resistant to the rise in sea levels and related floods. This study is based on the fact that these balances can only be maintained with holistic adaptation strategies that can be developed for the flood risk that is predicted to be exposed in the future projections of urban coastal area, and focuses on the architectural scale effects of this global problem. The main argument of the study is that the sea level rise and floods will constitute a risk in the Aegean Sea due to climate change in the long-term and sudden effects such as storm surges in Izmir Gulf. This study aims to assess different dimensions of flood risk within the framework of possible adaptation strategies on an architectural scale through the Izmir, Karsiyaka case. The first step of the adaptation studies is the holistic balance of the characteristics of the urban coastal areas regarding different parameters such as morphological, spatial, functional and administrative. The study is a case study research which is one of the architectural research methods. It is based on the current situation analysis of urban coastal areas with the parameters of geographical/morphological, spatial/functional and administrative which are extracted from the theoretical research. The study focuses on the question that What kind of adaptation strategies can be developed for the Karsiyaka coastline in terms of morphological, spatial, functional and administrative aspects? Adaptation strategies for different coast-urban space-building area relations will be put forward in line with the current situation analysis data. Within the scope of the article, three different study areas were selected within the borders of Karmaka district and located in the northern part of the inner bay.

Ercanli, Ç; Savasir, G

Assessing adaptation strategies against flood risk in urban coastal areas through Izmir Karsiyaka coastline case

Megaron

https://doi.org/10.14744/MEGARON.2022.46666

According to the climate change projections, there will be an increase in torrential rains and related floods. In parallel with this, the risk of flood damage to the architectural heritage will increase in the future. Floods cause serious damage to the architectural heritage. Since flood risk analyses are generally made basin-based, studies on flood risks of cities are still inadequate. Therefore, flood risks arising from the architectural heritage's own characteristics and its current situations are not known. Not knowing which architectural heritage poses the flood risk and its potential losses increase the damage. In preventive preservation, the measures taken before the risks occur are effective in reducing the damage, even if they do not eliminate the risks completely. It is necessary to know the flood risk in order to make the architectural heritage be prepared against floods that are predicted to increase with the effect of climate change. This study is aimed to develop a model for analysing the flood risk of architectural heritage. With the Architectural Heritage Flood Risk Analysis Model (MISRAM) developed in line with this purpose, the vulnerability of any architectural heritage can be calculated with the parameter scores developed over the building's own characteristics and current state. The development and implementation of the model were carried out in 4 stages. In the first stage: flood damage in the architectural heritage has been investigated. On-site detection, observation, and investigations were made to determine the factors that increase the damage. Flood-induced forces and effects from the data obtained. The types of damage caused by these forces and effects in the architectural heritage, the areas where the damage occurred in the building and the possible damage risks were determined. In the second stage: the factors affecting the damage level were defined and transformed into flood risk parameters. In the third stage: the flood risk parameters and the coefficient of flood risk area were made into a calculation table in an Excel program. The analyse form was created by adding the building identification section to the created calculation sheet. In the fourth stage: the risk analysis forms were filled in on-site. As a result of the researches made in the scope of the study's problem, the findings below have been reached: Climate change causes an increase in sudden and heavy rains and accordingly flash floods, and these effects will continue to increase in the future. Architectural heritage located in the region with the same flood risk coefficient may have different flood risk levels depending on different parameters.

Erdogan, BG; Ünal, ZG

A Model Proposal for the Flood Risk Analysis of the Architectural Heritage: Edirne Bayezid II Complex Flood Risk Analysis

Megaron

https://doi.org/10.14744/MEGARON.21331.88785

Africa emits the lowest amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the global GHG budget. However, the continent remains the most vulnerable continent to the effects of climate change. The agricultural sector in Africa is among the most vulnerable sectors to climate change. Also, as a dominant agricultural sector, African agriculture is increasingly contributing to climate change through GHG emissions. Research has so far focused on the effects of GHG emissions on the agricultural and other sectors with very little emphasis on monitoring and quantifying the spatial distribution of GHG emissions from agricultural land in Africa. This study develops a new index: African Agricultural Land Greenhouse Gas Index (AALGGI) that uses scores and specific scale ranges for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) to map the spatial variations in regional GHG emissions across Africa. The data for the three main GHGs (CO2, CH4, and N(2)0) were downloaded from FAOSTAT. The data were analyzed through the newly developed African Agricultural Land Greenhouse Gas Index (AALGGI). This is an empirical index with scores ranging from 0 to 10, with higher scores indicating higher levels of emissions. The results show that Southern and North African regions have the lowest amounts of agricultural land GHG emissions, with AALGGIs of 3.5 and 4.5, respectively. East Africa records the highest levels of GHG emissions, with an AALGGI of 8 followed by West Africa with an AALGGI of 7.5. With the continental mean or baseline AALGGI being 5.8, East and Middle Africa are above the mean AALGGI. These results underscore the fact that though Africa, in general, is not a heavy emitter of GHGs, African agricultural lands are increasingly emitting more GHGs into the global GHG budget. The low AALGGIs in the more developed parts of Africa such as Southern and North Africa are explained by their domination in other GHG emitting sectors such as industrialization and energy. The high rates of emissions in East Africa and Middle Africa are mainly linked to intensive traditional farming practices/processes and deforestation.

Epule, TE; Chehbouni, A; Ongoma, V; Brouziyne, Y; Etongo, D; Molua, EL

A new index on agricultural land greenhouse gas emissions in Africa

Environmental Monitoring And Assessment

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-10196-4

In the past two decades, China's urbanization has advanced rapidly. In 2018, Xi'an was successfully selected as a national central city, and the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration (GZPUA) is emerging rapidly due to Xi'an. This study focuses on the current ecological status of the region and how to strike a balance between economic development and ecological protection. This study uses the ecological vulnerability of the Guanzhong urban agglomeration as a starting point to investigate the changes in its spatial and temporal distribution of ecological vulnerability and the primary driving factors, as well as to investigate the interaction between the changes in ecological vulnerability and urban agglomeration development in the GZPUA region. Using the sensitivity-elasticity-pressure (SEP) assessment framework model, this paper selects the spatial distribution data of natural, social, and economic sources in 2000 and 2020 based on the ecological environment characteristics of GZPUA. By using spatial principal component analysis, this paper quantitatively evaluates the ecological vulnerability changes of GZPUA in two periods, 2000 and 2020, with 1000 m x 1000 m raster as the evaluation unit, classifies the ecological vulnerability of the area into levels, and conducts a sub-regional in-depth study from different administrative regions. This research helps to comprehend the change in ecological environment quality in the GZPUA and provides a basis for ecological environment management decisions in the region. The results showed that (1) the ecological vulnerability of the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration as a whole is moderate, with the highest ecological vulnerability index (EVI) value of 0.89 and the lowest EVI value of 0.087 in 2000, and the highest EVI value of 0.93 and the lowest EVI value of 0.082 in 2020. The percentage of areas with the highest ecological vulnerability (moderate or severe) was 5.07% in 2000 and 15.11% in 2020. (2) The variation scope of the integrated EVI in the study region is 1.78-4.96 (2000) and 1.81-4.99 (2020), among which the EVI values in Xi'an, Bei Lin, Lian Hu, and Xin Cheng are the highest and the EVI values in Tai Bai, Zhou Zhi, and Feng Xian are the lowest.

Wei, XT; Eboy, OV; Xu, L; Yu, D

Ecological Sensitivity of Urban Agglomeration in the Guanzhong Plain, China

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su15064804

Sorghum is one of the most important cereal crops well adapted in arid and semi-arid areas of Ethiopia but yield is low as compared to its potential. The crop has been adversely affected by climate change and climate variability accompanied by low soil fertility, insects and weeds. Thus, assessment of impact of projected climate change is important for developing suitable management strategies. The present study was conducted with the objectives (1) to calibrate and evaluate the CERES-sorghum model in DSSAT (2) to assess impact of projected climate change on sorghum production in 2030s (2020-2049) and 2050s (2040-2069) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios and (3) to identify best crop management strategies that can sustain sorghum production. The CERES-sorghum model was calibrated and evaluated using field experimental data of anthesis, physiological maturity, grain yield and aboveground biomass yield. In the simulation, the initial weather and CO2 were modified by future climates under the two climatic change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Historical daily weather data (1981-2010) of rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and solar radiation were obtained from the nearest weather stations at Sirinka and Kombolcha while future climate date for 2030s and 2050s were downloaded from the ensemble of 17 CMIP5 GCM outputs run under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 downscaled to the study sites using MarkSim. Different sowing dates, nitrogen rates, and supplemental irrigation were evaluated for their effectiveness to increase sorghum yield under the present and future climate conditions of the study area. The result of model calibration showed that the RMSE for anthesis, physiological maturity, grain yield, and above-ground biomass yield were 2 days, 2 days, 478 kg ha(-1), and 912 kg ha(-1), respectively with normalized nRMSE values of 2.74%, 1.6%, 13.42%, and 5.91%, respectively. During the model evaluation the R-2 values were 78% for anthesis, 99% for physiological maturity, 98% for aboveground biomass yield, and 94% for grain yield.

Mohammed, A; Misganaw, A

Modeling future climate change impacts on sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) production with best management options in Amhara Region, Ethiopia

Cabi Agriculture & Bioscience

https://doi.org/10.1186/s43170-022-00092-9

Maize is one of the most important cereal food crops, and it can be grown all year in various agroecological zones. However, its vegetative growth and yield are susceptible to rainfall and temperature variability. As a result, the analysis of rainfall and temperature variability and trend was urgently needed in maize-growing agroecology zones to restructure the production system. The aim of the study was to examine rainfall and temperature variability and trends for developing a climate-resilient maize farming system in major agroecology zones in northwest Ethiopia. The study was implemented in low productive agroecology zones (LPZ), medium productive agroecology zones (MPZ), and high productive agroecology zones (HPZ) of northwest Ethiopia using daily time series climate data during the period 1987-2018. The coefficient of variation (CV), precipitation concentration index (PCI), rainfall anomaly index (RAI), and standardized precipitation (SPI) were applied to examine rainfall variability. Mann-Kendall's and Sen's slope estimator trend tests were used to detecting the statistical significance of changes in rainfall and temperature. Statistically significant increasing trends for annual maximum and minimum temperatures were recorded for all maize-producing agroecology zones. The mean annual temperature has exhibited a significant warming trend of 0.12 to 0.54 & DEG;C per decade. The average annual rainfall has decreased by 38 to 67 mm per decade in all maize agroecology zones. Our research also showed that droughts now happen every one to three years; even consecutive droughts were seen in 2009, 2010, and 2011. For this reason, it could be required to develop a system of climate-resilient maize farming to address the issues of both global warming and the sub-Saharan countries that make up our study area. Climate-resilient maize agronomic activities have been determined by analyzing the onset, length of the growth period (LGP), and cessation date. Accordingly, the lower and upper quartiles of the date of onset of rainfall were in a range of May 9 to June 2, respectively; the length of the growth period (LGP) during the rainy season ranges from 97 to 232 days, and the cessation date of rainfall was November 1.

Zeleke, A; Tesfaye, K; Tadesse, T; Alem, T; Ademe, D; Adgo, E

Analysis of Climate Variability and Trends for Climate-Resilient Maize Farming System in Major Agroecology Zones of Ethiopia

Advances In Meteorology

https://doi.org/10.1155/2023/9562601

The presence of legacy pollutants, on-going chemical manufacturing activities, and population shifts have introduced complex, cumulative exposure risks to residents of many highly industrialized communities. These industrial corridors present unique challenges to environmental health science professionals, public and private sector decision makers, and residents seeking to make their communities safer and healthier. Social-ecological resilience theory offers a useful framework for the design and implementation of community engagement efforts to help stakeholders take action to reduce their exposure risks. A resilience framework views the human community as a coupled social-ecological system, wherein disturbances to the equilibrium of the system - acute and/or chronic - are common rather than rare events. It recognizes three key capacities of more resilient communities. These are the abilities of community members to self-organize to address changing threat levels, to hold scientifically sound understandings of the risks, and to learn from past experiences and take action - individually or collectively - to adapt to or mitigate the hazards in their local environment. We apply this resilience theory framework to a case study from Camp Minden, Louisiana, conducted through the Louisiana State University (LSU) Superfund Research Center's Community Engagement program and supported by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS). The case illuminates a critical path by which resilience theory can be applied to guide bi-directional communication and information-gathering, and co-development of risk-reducing strategies at the community level. These are central elements of community engagement within a contentious, real-world setting. The three components of the resilience framework were supported by specific program mechanisms and activities. The capacity for self-organization among community stakeholders was furthered through the convening of a Dialogue Committee which brought together representatives of concerned residents, regulatory agencies, research scientists, and others. This collaborative problem-solving approach supported a more holistic and scientifically sound understanding of the problem through a series of interactive meetings in which members discussed site-remediation options with thermal-treatment experts and regulators, and shared how recent explosions and concerns about air quality affected them. The members co-developed selection criteria and reached consensus on two types of disposal methods that would best reduce the significant threats to public health and the local environment. We also include a brief summary of our recent randomized survey of over 550 residents of Louisiana's industrialized communities to determine the influences on household-level adaptive behaviors to reduce acute and chronic environmental exposure risks.

Reams, MA; Irving, JK

Applying community resilience theory to engagement with residents facing cumulative environmental exposure risks: lessons from Louisiana's industrial corridor

Reviews On Environmental Health

https://doi.org/10.1515/reveh-2019-0022

Flood is one of the prominent hazards in the Terai region of Nepal. This study was objectively conducted to assess the livelihood vulnerability of community living in the up-stream, mid-stream and down-stream regions at southern Bagmati River corridor, Nepal. To meet the objective, primary data were collected through house hold survey using random sampling technique with 25% (182 HHs) sample size, focus group discussion (6) and key informant interview (15) carried out in Rautahat and Sarlahi districts of Nepal to accomplish this task. A pre-tested semi-questionnaire and check list was prepared based on the method of LVI given. LVI-IPCC was also used to collect required information. The results showed that the highest indexed value of socio-economic component was 0.360 of community living in the down-streamregion and the least value was 0.157 of local people living in the up-stream region. Similarly, the indexed value of livelihood component was the highest (about 0.493) of the community living in the mid-stream belt. The indexed value of social network component was the highest (about 0.590) of the community living at mid-stream belt. But the indexed value of financial component was the highest (0.686) in the down-stream region. The indexed value of physical component was the highest (1) of the community living in the mid-stream region. The highest indexed value (0.464) was found of community living in the down-stream area. The indexed value of water resource component was the highest (0.366) of community living in the down-stream area. Similarly, the indexed value of natural hazard and climate variability component was the highest (0.579) of community living in the down-streamregion. The livelihood vulnerability index values were the highest (0.528) of the community living in the down-stream belt. This indicates that the community living in the down-streamarea was the most vulnerable to flood, but the community living in the up-stream belt the least vulnerable (0.323). The value of exposure was the highest (about 0.579) of community living in the down-stream belt while this was the lowest (about 0.291) of the community living in the upstream belt.

Shreevastav, BB; Tiwari, KR; Mandal, RA; Nepal, A

Assessing flood vulnerability on livelihood of the local community: A case from southern Bagmati corridor of Nepal

Progress In Disaster Science

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2021.100199

Although much has changed for Inuit since their social, economic, and political integration into Canada, sea ice still forms an essential part of what they call their homeland. The ways in which sea ice is understood by Inuit, however, are still little known to non-Inuit. Alongside the currently renewed political and economic interest in the Arctic regions, and in part as a result of the mounting preoccupation with the vulnerability of Arctic ecosystems and peoples due to climate change, new research is shedding light on significant aspects of how Inuit use and understand sea ice. This article will focus on the Inuit Sea Ice Use and Occupancy Project (ISIUOP), an initiative to document and map Inuit sea ice use in several communities of Nunavut and Nunavik. ISIUOP is then analyzed in the context of earlier sea ice research and in connection with previous studies of Inuit land use. A comparison between a land use study conducted in the 1970s and ISIUOP is then undertaken in order to highlight differences and similarities in the ways research is conducted and in the changing contexts surrounding both Arctic researchers and Arctic inhabitants.

Aporta, C

Shifting perspectives on shifting ice: documenting and representing Inuit use of the sea ice

Canadian Geographer-Geographe Canadien

https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1541-0064.2010.00340.x

Climate change is a reality. It is happening and posing adverse impacts globally as well as on Pakistan. To effectively respond to this ubiquitous threat, Pakistan formulated the National Climate Change Policy (NCCP) in 2012 and operationalized it in 2013. Yet it encourages further analyses and evaluations so as to identify any un-addressed or unidentified measures in the policy, to examine the established policy measures more in depth, and to ensure its effective implementation. This study presents a qualitative analysis of the NCCP. To undertake the analysis in a recognized and systematic fashion, the policy document is evaluated against a criterion set by Cheung et al. (Aust Health Rev 34:405-413, 2010). The main characteristics of this criterion include accessibility, policy background, policy goals, resources, monitoring and evaluation, public opportunities, and obligations. This study contributes to the literature to understand the critical aspects of a climate policy from a developing and one of the most affected countries due to climate change. The study is important to explore the strengths and shortcomings of the policy. Additionally, our study contributes by setting a framework of novel insights by utilizing a new criterion for analyzing a climate policy. The analysis provides valuable inputs to the subnational governments in Pakistan which are actually responsible for implementation of climate and other related policies. Our evaluation found that NCCP offers some strengths but the document has certain weaknesses too. The policy is a promising document which provides directions and guidelines to the subnational governments for establishing their policies and effective actions plans. It provides a proper mechanism of monitoring the implementation activities in the country. Moreover, it covers important sectors and emphasizes on integration of sectoral policies with climate change policy. The policy presents a reasonable mechanism to enhance the human and institutional capacity. However, it lacks realistic and comprehensive backing for established goals and objectives. For instance, it proposes some measures which are not practically actionable. One of such measures suggests to protecting the glaciers which is not possible keeping in view the existing military conflict between Pakistan and India in the region. This shows that the policy lacks to base on empirical research. The findings of the study will be very helpful for policy makers and climate experts while revising or revisiting the policy document. This analysis provides valuable lessons to provincial governments in Pakistan while framing their provincial climate change policies and action plans.

Mumtaz, M

The National Climate Change Policy of Pakistan: An Evaluation of Its Impact on Institutional Change

Earth Systems And Environment

https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-018-0062-x

The city has been the political unit of organization in the international system for long periods of history.As actors in international society, cities have left irreplaceable classics:Athens, Imperial Rome, the Hanseatic League or Machiavelli's Florence. However, the dominant school of thought has diminished the role of the city on the international scene.The Westphalian model consolidated the nation-state as the axis and macro-political unit object and subject of study. Following this logic, cities' capacity for international action was limited and, as a field of study, was reduced to cultural activities or of little diplomatic relevance (e.g. twin cities).This state-centered approach, both in theory and practice, finds its place in the legal approach over the political one in the development of international society and international relations theories. However, the global dynamic has changed substantially, and it opens the door to new structures or vectors of transnational analysis. The Westphalian system loses weight in the face of the concatenation of phenomena and transformations of international society.Taking this to be the case, the current international structure opens avenues of research in the international political activity of the city, diplomatic practice,global and economic hub relations, or the rise of city brands as a marketing strategy. Of course, the nation-state will not disappear in the short term, but it does seem that new actors and dynamics are emerging in the construction of the post-liberal order.Above all, the city emerges as a new point of reference for solving globalization problems: climate change, migrations, diversity, or identity.The effect is relevant to the epistemological bases of a transversal discipline: the city is incorporated as a reference subject in the reformulation of the general theory of International Relations. The consensus around the liberal order, born after 1945, has been broken. The current theoretical doctrine only agrees on one element: there is no new consensus on the foundations of the international system.The global architecture of institutions, the effective capacities for the exercise of power, the decline of multilateral practices, or the difficulty in establishing a common economic agenda are symptoms of a change in global power structures.With or without legitimacy, cities act in the international sphere with the aim of influencing, modifying knowledge, behavior, or judgment.

Manfredi Sánchez, JL

Urban cosmopolitanism:the city before the post-liberal order

Relaciones Internacionales-Madrid

https://doi.org/10.15366/relacionesinternacionales2020.44.002

According to most estimates, more than one hundred million people will be permanently displaced by climate change by 2050. Among the people most at risk of displacement are American Indians. If the government does nothing, or simply does not do enough, hundreds of Indian communities across the United States will be destroyed, the members of these communities devastated, endangered, and displaced. This Article argues, for the first time, that the Indigenous peoples of the United States have an enforceable right to resettlement derived from the federal trust duty toward American Indians. Long a subject of scholarly debate, unrealized potential, and crushed hopes, the trust duty provides a cause of action for Indians to compel the federal government to relocate them to higher ground, to areas where the effects of climate change will no longer threaten their lives and livelihoods. Indeed, the trust duty does not merely guarantee individual Indians federally funded relocation, if they desire it. It guarantees Indian communities relocation as communities. Emerging from treaty obligations and the foundational Indian law cases of the 1830s, the federal trust duty today obligates the federal government to provide educational services, healthcare services, adequate housing, and public safety to Indians. Courts have held that the trust duty requires the federal government to protect their water supplies and their lands, safeguard their wildlife resources, and to clean up hazardous waste. In the last thirty years, most of the litigation around the trust duty has focused on when federal mismanagement of tribal resources is compensable; in these cases, the tribes were seeking monetary damages, not declaratory or injunctive relief. These cases have yielded a confusing, apparently contradictory line of decisions. But they have also left an opening for a more radical interpretation of the trust duty. Unlike cases involving Indians seeking monetary damages, cases involving Indians seeking declaratory or injunctive relief allow courts to infer the existence of enforceable trust duties beyond those explicitly set out in federal law; such broader duties can and have been inferred from statutes, treaties, and the nature of the relationship between the government and Indians.

Stern, SW

Rebuilding Trust: Climate Change, Indian Communities, and a Right to Resettlement

Ecology Law Quarterly

https://doi.org/10.15779/Z38J96098X

Within the last decades serious flooding events occurred in many parts of Europe and especially in 2005 the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol was serious affected. These events in general and particularly the 2005 event have sensitised decision makers and the public. Beside discussions pertaining to protection goals and lessons learnt, the issue concerning potential consequences of extreme and severe flooding events has been raised. Additionally to the general interest of the public, decision makers of the insurance industry, public authorities, and responsible politicians are especially confronted with the question of possible consequences of extreme events. Answers thereof are necessary for the implementation of preventive appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, property and liability losses reflect a large proportion of the direct tangible losses. These are of great interest for the insurance sector and can be understood as main indicators to interpret the severity of potential events. The natural scientific-technical risk analysis concept provides a predefined and structured framework to analyse the quantities of affected elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials, and the potential losses. Generally, this risk concept framework follows the process steps hazard analysis, exposition analysis, and consequence analysis. Additionally to the conventional hazard analysis, the potential amount of endangered elements and their corresponding damage potentials were analysed and, thereupon, concrete losses were estimated. These took the specific vulnerability of the various individual elements at risk into consideration. The present flood risk analysis estimates firstly the general exposures of the risk indicators in the study area and secondly analyses the specific exposures and consequences of five extreme event scenarios. In order to precisely identify, localize, and characterize the relevant risk indicators of buildings, dwellings and inventory, vehicles, and individuals, a detailed geodatabase of the existing stock of elements and values was established on a single object level. Therefore, the localized and functional differentiated stock of elements was assessed monetarily on the basis of derived representative mean insurance values. Thus, well known difference factors between the analysis of the stock of elements and values on local and on regional scale could be reduced considerably. The spatial join of the results of the hazard analysis with the stock of elements and values enables the identification and quantification of the elements at risk and their corresponding damage potential. Thereupon, Extreme Scenario Losses (ESL) were analysed under consideration of different vulnerability approaches which describe the individual element's specific susceptibility. This results in scenario-specific ranges of ESL rather than in single values.

Huttenlau, M; Stötter, J; Stiefelmeyer, H

Risk-based damage potential and loss estimation of extreme flooding scenarios in the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol

Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-2451-2010

CONTEXT: The planned interventions to enhance adaptation and build resilience of predominantly rainfed and vulnerable smallholder production systems to climate change in African drylands include small-scale irrigation using rainwater harvesting reservoirs. However, the required technological improvement, participatory breakthroughs, institutional settings, farm risk management, and investment justification are rarely established comprehensively and integrated into adaptive planning. OBJECTIVES: To develop and assess new reservoir-based climate-resilient and risk-efficient irrigation cropping strategies synthesizing technological, participatory, institutional, managerial, and investment capabilities. METHODS: We crafted an innovative rice and vegetable pond irrigation system together with governance arrangements and cropping schedule adjustments tailored to the system. The system was validated through a fiveyear participatory on-farm experiment in northern Ghana. Using agronomic, hydrological, and socioeconomic data obtained from the experiments and surveys, we constructed and extended empirical bioeconomic models through simple risk programming to identify irrigation cropping strategies that are the most efficient in securing smallholders' food and income and resilient to interannual climate fluctuations. The net present values were computed to determine the financial effects of the identified strategies on the investment payback of the pond system. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Shifting sowing dates allowed smallholders to irrigate timely, albeit sparingly, without compromising their autonomous adaptations in rainfed systems. Supplementary irrigation and improved weed control increased the average rice yield by 23%, more than doubled the profitability, and lowered the coefficients of its variation compared to that of rainfed rice (from 48% to 38%). Vegetable irrigation in the dry season was even more profitable. The risk-efficient cropping strategies identified by empirical models mostly combined multiple rainfed crop choices with balanced irrigation allocation between rice and vegetables enabling food self-sufficiency and increased income level and stability. A 5000 m(3) pond storage capacity was sufficient to secure these benefits under the observed climate fluctuations. The cropping strategy found to produce sufficient financial increments to achieve mid-term (8-to-12-years) payback of pond investment under the same level of risk that smallholders accepted under rainfed systems is among the most advisable. SIGNIFICANCE: We addressed multidimensional challenges underlying planned adaptation through reservoir irrigation. The innovative pond system established can offer promising alternatives and complement smallholder autonomous adaptations to secure food and income under a changing climate.

Koide, J; Yokoyama, S; Hirouchi, S; Hirose, C; Oka, N; Oda, M; Yanagihara, S

Exploring climate-resilient and risk-efficient cropping strategies using a new pond irrigation system: An experimental study in northern Ghana

Agricultural Systems

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103149

The theory on the cyclic adaptation between society and ecosystems sheds new light on the evolution and internal structure of human-environment systems. This paper introduces the risk index (RI) and adaptation capacity index (ACI) to evaluate the rural human-environment system. An evaluation index system for the adaptability of rural human-environment systems is configured in the context of climate change and policy implementation. On this basis, the stages, features, dominant control factors, and evolution mechanism were examined vis-a-vis the adaptability of the rural human-environment system in Darhan Muminggan Joint Banner from 1952 to 2017. The main results are as follows: (1) The evolution of the rural human-environment system can be divided into three stages, namely, the reorganization and rapid development stage (1952-2002) with population, cultivated land, livestock and degraded grassland increasing by 260%, 13%, 134% and 16.33%, respectively. The rapid to stable development stage (2003-2010) with population increasing by 2.8%; cultivated land, livestock and degraded grassland decreasing by 2.3%, 13.6% and 10.7%, respectively. The stable to release stage (2011-2017) with population, cultivated land, livestock and degraded grassland decreasing by 2.6%, 0.2%, 10.6% and 3.8%, respectively. (2) With the passage of time, the ACI of the rural human-environment system first increased slightly (-0.016-0.031), followed by a slight decline (0.031-0.003), and culminating in a rapid increase (0.003-0.088). In terms of spatial patterns, adaptability is high in the middle, moderate in the north, and low in the south. (3) The evolution of adaptability in the rural human-environment system was mainly controlled by the per capita effective irrigation area (22.31%) and the per capita number of livestock (23.47%) from 1990 to 2000, the desertified area (25.06%) and the land use intensity (21.27%) from 2000 to 2005, and the per capita income of farmers and herdsmen (20.08%) and the per capita number of livestock (18.52%) from 2010 to 2007.

Li, WL; Kuang, WH; Lyu, J; Zhao, ZH; Zhang, BY

Adaptive evolution of the rural human-environment system in farming and pastoral areas of northern China from 1952-2017

Journal Of Geographical Sciences

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-021-1875-3

Background: Climate change influences patterns of human mobility and health outcomes. While much of the climate change and migration discourse is invested in quantitative predictions and debates about whether migration is adaptive or maladaptive, less attention has been paid to the voices of the people moving in the context of climate change with a focus on their health and wellbeing. This qualitative research aims to amplify the voices of migrants themselves to add nuance to dominant migration narratives and to shed light on the real-life challenges migrants face in meeting their health needs in the context of climate change. Methods: We conducted 58 semi-structured in-depth interviews with migrants purposefully selected for having moved from rural Bhola, southern Bangladesh to an urban slum in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Transcripts were analysed using thematic analysis under the philosophical underpinnings of phenomenology. Coding was conducted using NVivo Pro 12. Findings: We identified two overarching themes in the thematic analysis: Firstly, we identified the theme A risk exchange: Exchanging climate change and health risks at origin and destination. Rather than describing a net positive or net negative outcome in terms of migration in the context of climate change, migrants described an exchange of hazards, exposures, and vulnerabilities at origin with those at destination, which challenged their capacity to adapt. This theme included several sub-themes-income and employment factors, changing food environment, shelter and water sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) conditions, and social capital. The second overarching theme was A changing health and healthcare environment. This theme also included several sub-themes-changing physical and mental health status and a changing healthcare environment encompassing quality of care and barriers to accessing healthcare. Migrants described physical and mental health concerns and connected these experiences with their new environment. These two overarching themes were prevalent across the dataset, although each participant experienced and expressed them uniquely. Conclusion: Migrants who move in the context of climate change face a range of diverse health risks at the origin, en route, and at the destination. Migrating individuals, households, and communities undertake a risk exchange when they decide to move, which has diverse positive and negative consequences for their health and wellbeing. Along with changing health determinants is a changing healthcare environment where migrants face different choices, barriers, and quality of care. A more migrant-centric perspective as described in this paper could strengthen migration, climate, and health governance.

Schwerdtle, PN; Baernighausen, K; Karim, S; Raihan, TS; Selim, S; Baernighausen, T; Danquah, I

A Risk Exchange: Health and Mobility in the Context of Climate and Environmental Change in Bangladesh-A Qualitative Study

International Journal Of Environmental Research And Public Health

https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18052629

During the past few years two new methods, each based on the analogous region concept, have been developed to account for farmer adaptation in response to global climatic change. The first, called `Ricardian' by Mendelsohn, Nordhaus, and Shaw (1994), econometrically estimates the impact of climatic and other variables on the value of farm real estate. Under some conditions, estimates of climate-induced changes in farm real estate capture first-round adaptations by farmers and represent the economic value of climatic change on agriculture. The second method, promulgated by Darwin et al. (1994) in the Future Agricultural Resources Model (FARM), uses a geographic information system to empirically link climatically derived land classes with other inputs and agricultural outputs in an economic model of the world. FARM provides estimates of economic impacts that fully account for all responses by economic agents under global climate change as well as estimates of Ricardian rents. The primary objective of this analysis is to evaluate how well changes in Ricardian rents measure agricultural or other effects of climatic change after all economic agents around the world have responded. Results indicate that changes in Ricardian rents on agricultural land are poor quantitative, but good qualitative, measures of how global climatic change is likely to affect the welfare of agricultural landowners, if one recognizes that increases in Ricardian rents actually indicate losses in landowner welfare and vice versa. Results also indicate that regional changes in Ricardian rents on all land are good qualitative measures of changes in regional welfare. They are poor quantitative welfare measures because they systematically overestimate both benefits and losses and are on average upwardly biased because inflated benefits are larger than exaggerated losses. Results also indicate that, when based on existing land-use patterns, changes in Ricardian rents on all the world's land are poor quantitative and qualitative measures of changes in world welfare. Despite these shortcomings, changes in Ricardian rents can provide useful information when other measures are not available. In this analysis, for example, estimated changes in Ricardian rents on all land indicate that climatic change would likely have detrimental effects in Latin America and Africa, beneficial effects in the former Soviet Union, and either detrimental or beneficial impacts in eastern and northern Europe and western and southern Asia.

Darwin, R

A farmer's view of the Ricardian approach to measuring agricultural effects of climatic change

Climatic Change

https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005421707801

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the extent of climate change awareness among the rural farmers of Northern Cross River state, investigate the gender role analyzes of some daily routine activities carried out by these rural farmers, ascertain the difference in workload burden of the impacts of climate change between men and women, identify the strategies adopted by these rural farmers to mitigate the effects of climate change in their agricultural activities and investigate the roles Environmental Education (EE) can play in helping the rural farmers to design and adopt sustainable adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce or completely eradicate their vulnerability to climate change effects. Design/methodology/approach The research design adopted for this study is the cross-sectional survey method. Five research questions guided the study. Two sets of instruments were used for data collection, a sample of 1,258 respondents (0.1%) were selected for the study. The researchers personally administered the instruments and collected the same back, two instruments were not properly filled, so they were rejected. Findings The finding of the study revealed that rural farmers have some level of climate change awareness, which they got from radio, newspapers, awareness campaigns, flyers, billboards, among others. Six out of the nine strategies listed were adopted by the rural farmers to mitigate climate change effects among these rural farmers. There is a significant difference in gender workload burden between women and male in the area, the result is positively skewed toward women, implying that the burden of workload for women increased over those of men. The result also shows that EE can influence their attitude toward climate change through awareness creation, knowledge provisions and also encourage members participation in climate change effect mitigation, prevention and adaptation. Research limitations/implications With this result, EE can be used as a tool for the creation of knowledge, awareness, attitude and encourage the participation of these rural farmers toward mitigating and prevention climate change effects among these rural farmers. It was recommended among others that deliberate policies should be designed to make EE help create the needed awareness on climate change, beginning from the causes, effects and mitigation strategies among rural farmers in their community. Practical implications Already, most Environmental Educators have been trained, the government should design and formulate practical policies to use them as extension agent on climate change effort to go to these rural communities and create the needed awareness, knowledge, skills and attitude to help them combat climate change effects including trees and cover crops planting and also re-introducing the use of irrigation agriculture in these farming communities.

Eneji, CVO; Onnoghen, NU; Acha, JO; Diwa, JB

Climate change awareness, environmental education and gender role burdens among rural farmers of Northern Cross River State, Nigeria

International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-06-2020-0070

Australian local governments are expected to be the frontline of climate change adaptation implementation, but existing institutional arrangements are inadequate. Institutional changes that make adaptation pathways part of land use planning policy are needed and how this might happen is assessed using New South Wales (NSW), Australia, as a case study. The most effective implementation mechanism is identified as an independent adaptation statute integrated with land use planning. The institutional assessment approach employed is potentially useful for identifying adaptation policy implications in planning systems and is of relevance to ogoing research into local level adaptation.

McNicol, I

Increasing the Adaptation Pathways Capacity of Land Use Planning - Insights from New South Wales, Australia

Urban Policy And Research

https://doi.org/10.1080/08111146.2020.1788530

Global environmental and ecological problems such as climate change and other related issues (e.g. biodiversity losses) do not recognize state boundaries. Therefore, intentions to address these problems require a multi-actor, multi-sector and multilevel approach. The concept that enables joint effort against these problems implies an active participation of all stakeholders, establishes the rules for shared responsibilities and strives to make efficient and effective procedures for addressing these issues is known as governance (Mutabzija, 2012). Climate change and occurance of extreme events are presenting a threat to the natural resources, exposing the vulnerabilities of current resource governance regimes, including also forestry and nature conservation. The occurance of extreme events in last several years thretened the natural resources and impacted the forestry sector in all four selected countries of Southeast Europe (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Serbia, and Slovenia). This has provided a further arguments for understanding the institutional framework for climate change governance in forestry and nature conservation as important element in dealing with uncertanties posed by the climate change challenges on natural resources. Hence, the aim of the paper is to examine the institutional frameworks of forestry and nature conservation, as well as the attitudes of respondents about the competences of the relevant institutions and organizations, to identify the need to improve the existing framework and to evaluate their interests and impacts in climate change governance. In this research were used individual, structured interviews as a research technique in collecting the primary data. The questionnaire consisted of 22 questions, divided into 5 groups. For the purposes of this paper, responses to questions related to institutional frameworks for climate change governance in forestry and nature conservation are analyzed. The sample consisted of 29 representatives (Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina - 8, Croatia - 6, Serbia - 10, Slovenia - 5) from public administrations and services in forestry and nature conservation, enterprises and organization for forest and protected area management, educational and research organizations, and non-governmental organizations. The respondents were selected by judgemental sampling. Current institutional framework for climate change governance comprises of various institutions and organizations in all analyzed countries (Table 1). In selected countries, there is a clear division of responsibilities between public administration institutions in forestry and nature conservation (these institutions are directly or indirectly are related to forestry).

Nedeljkovic, J; Stanisic, M; Nonic, D; Avdibegovic, M; Curman, M; Malovrh, SP

CLIMATE CHANGE GOVERNANCE IN FORESTRY AND NATURE CONSERVATION: INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK IN SELECTED SEE COUNTRIES

Sumarski List

https://doi.org/10.31298/sl.143.9-10.6

Background: Drawing upon multiple types of knowledge (e.g., Indigenous knowledge, local knowledge, science-based knowledge) strengthens the evidence-base for policy advice, decision making, and environmental management. While the benefits of incorporating multiple types of knowledge in environmental research and management are many, doing so has remained a challenge. This systematic map examined the extent, range, and nature of the published literature (i.e., commercially published and grey) that seeks to respectively bridge Indigenous and science-based knowledge in coastal and marine research and management in Canada. Methods: This systematic map applied standardized search terms across four databases focused on commercially published literature, carefully selected specialist websites, and two web-based search engines. In addition, reference sections of relevant review articles were cross-checked to identify articles that may not have been found using the search strategy. Search results were screened in two sequential stages; (1) at title and abstract; and (2) at full text following a published protocol. All case studies included were coded using a standard questionnaire. A narrative synthesis approach was used to identify trends in the evidence, knowledge gaps, and knowledge clusters. Results: A total of 62 articles that spanned 71 Canadian case studies were included in the systematic map. Studies across the coastal and marine regions of Inuit Nunangat accounted for the majority of the studies. Whether the focus is on management and decision making or research and monitoring, the predominant ecological scale was at the species level, accounting for over two-thirds of the included studies. There were 24 distinct coastal and marine species of central focus across the studies. Nunavut had the greatest taxonomic coverage as studies conducted to date cover 13 different genera. The predominant methodology employed for combining and/or including Indigenous knowledge was case study design, which accounted for over half of the studies. Other methodologies employed for combining and/or including different ways of knowing included: (i) community-based participatory research; (ii) mixed methods; (iii) ethnography; and (iv) simulation modelling. There are a suite of methods utilized for documenting and translating Indigenous knowledge and an equally diverse tool box of methods used in the collection of scientific data. Over half of the case studies involved Indigenous knowledge systems of the Inuit, while another significant proportion involved Indigenous knowledge systems of First Nations, reflecting 21 unique nations. We found that demographics of knowledge holders were generally not reported in the articles reviewed.

Alexander, SM; Provencher, JF; Henri, DA; Taylor, JJ; Lloren, JI; Nanayakkara, L; Johnson, JT; Cooke, SJ

Bridging Indigenous and science-based knowledge in coastal and marine research, monitoring, and management in Canada

Environmental Evidence

https://doi.org/10.1186/s13750-019-0181-3

PurposeThis paper aims to highlight the localised shelter solutions to fulfil adequate and disaster resilient housing needs of urban informal settlers of Honiara, the capital city of Solomon Islands, in a way that is sensitive to their unique challenges, values and aspirations, is gender- and disability-inclusive, and considers housing from the complete lifecycle of a disaster (pre-, during- and post-). Design/methodology/approachQualitative data was gathered through empirical research through five community workshops at five hotspot settlements, two stakeholder workshops and a stakeholder interview. Semi-structured questions as well as photographs of housing and settlement were used for data collection. With an emphasis on self-recovery, the identified shelter needs were then matched with the roles and responsibilities of the Government to support a process of assisted self-preparedness and recovery. FindingsThe output of the research was the Solomon Islands Shelter Guide. This paper draws from the Guide to present some of the findings. One of the key findings was an emphasis on shelter self-preparedness and self-recovery. However, in order for them to do that, they needed a combination of assistance - technical knowledge, materials and financial support - which is tailored to their settlement's specific needs and based on hazard damage assessment. While the Guide provides one form of the assistance (i.e. technical), this paper is a call for action from the Solomon Islands Government and shelter responders to fulfil the rest of the community needs for shelter adequacy. Research limitations/implicationsThe paper contributes to existing scholarship on shelter after disasters by adding assisted in front of self-recovery, in line with the limited access to resources by the most vulnerable to recover, despite housing being a human right and definition of adequate housing (UN-Habitat, 2015, 2021), which includes freedom of choice, entitlements and meeting minimum adequacy criteria. Practical implicationsThere are many implications of this research. Since the publication of the Shelter Guide, there is excitement among most humanitarian and development agencies, government authorities and the local communities in Honiara. The Guide forms the first step in contributing to identified needs and strengthening community capacities to self-build, self-recover or self-retrofit one's house based on their own choice of materials, design, social and economic circumstance.

Vahanvati, M; McEvoy, D; Iyer-Raniga, U

Inclusive and resilient shelter guide: accounting for the needs of informal settlements in Solomon Islands

International Journal Of Disaster Resilience In The Built Environment

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDRBE-10-2022-0098

Background.Climate change and climate variability interact with political, economic, social, demographic, and other environmental drivers to change the scale and patterns of human migration(5). In the context of accelerating climate change and breaches to other planetary boundaries, there is an urgent need to better understand how migrant health can be protected and promoted in the context of a changing climate to manage safe and orderly migration(6). While research has focused on the separate dyads of (i) climate change and migration and (ii) climate change and health, limited consideration has been given to the nexus between climate change, migration, and health. This assessment synthesizes research that has investigated this relationship since 1990.Methods.Following ana prioriprotocol and with the assistance of a subject librarian, systematic searches were conducted in four academic databases (PubMed, Scopus, Ovid Medline, and Global Health) and Google Scholar for empirical studies investigating migration and health in the context of climate change with any study design between 1990 and 2018. The search results underwent a two-stage screening process and the eligible studies were subjected to quality appraisal using a mixed methods appraisal tool. Data extraction and a meta-synthesis followed producing outputs deemed most useful for policy, practice, and further research.Findings.The registered protocol and search strategy revealed 1904 studies of which 180 were screened in full- text and 50 were included in the meta-synthesis. Overall, the methodological and reporting quality of the included studies was high. This assessment produced five main findings: (1) there is a paucity of empirical research investigating the climate-health-migration nexus; (2) the relationships between migration and health in the context of climate change are strongly heterogeneous and global findings are unlikely to emerge; (3) studies have examined diverse health issues associated with migration in the context of climate change including changing patterns of infectious disease, non-communicable disease, psychosocial conditions, and access to health care; (4) food and water security are important mediators between climate change, human mobility and health outcomes; (5) there is no consistent approach to integrating climate data in studies exploring migration and health in the context of climate change.Conclusions.Although migrant health and climate-related health risks are significant population health concerns, there has been limited consideration of the complex connections between climate change, migration, and health.

Schwerdtle, PN; McMichael, C; Mank, I; Sauerborn, R; Danquah, I; Bowen, KJ

Health and migration in the context of a changing climate: a systematic literature assessment

Environmental Research Letters

https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9ece

This study investigates the synoptic aspects of two heavy rainfall events that occurred in the southern half of Iran during the period 2019-2020. To this end, daily precipitation data from 114 synoptic stations scattered over southern, southwestern, and southeastern Iran were used to characterize the 24-h total precipitation, while the general extreme value (GEV) distribution was used to estimate the associated return periods. The geopotential height, u and v wind components, sea-level pressure, and atmospheric relative humidity data relative to 100 to 250 hPA levels were also used to analyze the synoptic aspects of the considered heavy rainfall. The statistics showed the 155-mm 24-h total rainfall occurred in Izeh station in March 2019 ranked first during the study period, while the 142-mm 24-h rainfall of Poldokhtar station ranked second. The estimated return period of the heavy rainfall of late March and early April 2019 in western Iran varies between 7 and 200 years across the studied stations. The estimated chance of recurring 155-mm 24-h heavy rainfall at Izeh station is 96 years, but it is 56 years for the 142-mm rainfall in Poldokhtar station. In the case of January 2020 heavy rainfall that occurred in southern and southeastern Iran, the estimated return period of the 176-mm 24-h total rainfall measured in Qeshm and Minab stations of Hormozgan province was 115 years, whereas it was 10 years for the 107 mm of rainfall at Rask station in Sistan and Baluchestan province. The synoptic analysis of the consecutive downpour of late March and early April 2019 that occurred in the west and southwest of Iran and the successive heavy rainfall of January 2020 that occurred in the southern and southeastern Iran was related to the blocking synoptic systems and the associated atmospheric turbulences established in these areas. In the heavy rainfall of March 2019, the formation of a strong cut-off low centered over Iraq sank the higher-latitude cold air into the system that in turn intensified it that favors absorbing intensive moisture from the Mediterranean Sea.

Miri, M; Raziei, T; Zand, M; Kousari, MR

Synoptic aspects of two flash flood-inducing heavy rainfalls in southern Iran during 2019-2020

Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05658-4

Climate-induced waterlogging has been significantly affecting the lives and livelihood of people in the south-west coastal region of Bangladesh for a couple of decades. The objective of this study is to investigate the waterlogging hazards of Tala, a south-western coastal Upazila of Bangladesh by analyzing satellite image. An empirical model based on velocity of flow, depth of flow, and inundation depth has been proposed to assess waterlogging hazard in pre monsoon, monsoon, and post monsoon period. Landsat TM images for the years 1989, 2000, and 2011 were analyzed by using Geoinformatics including GIS and remote sensing techniques to quantify the water hazard. Three dominant land use classes such as water, vegetation, and bare lands and others were selected to identify the land use land cover change. Both FGD (focus group discussions) and KII (key informant interviews) were also accomplished to assess the waterlogging hazard. It was revealed that 0.7% of the study area (246 ha) was under water in 1989, which increased alarmingly to 34% (11,525 ha) in 2011. There was an increase in 62.9% of water bodies during 1989 to 2000, which was further expanded to 77% during 2000 to 2011. Satellite image analysis between 2011 and 2015 also showed that nearly 89% of the waterlogged area including floodplain is inundated by tidal saline water that supports shrimp cultivation. On the contrary, 11% of the waterlogged area was occupied by trapped rain water. Confirmation of saline water and fresh water was done by measuring electrical conductivity and conducting mouth taste during field visit. The decreasing rate of bare lands and others category indicates that there is around 69.4% of reduction in this category to accommodate the increasing water covering areas. The hazard model shows that the middle part of the Tala along with the flood plain of the Kabodak River usually have to suffer waterlogged in both pre monsoon and post monsoon period. It was found that low flow in the upstream side, siltation in the Kabodak River, elevated riverbed, and recent increase in total annual rainfall have resulted in waterlogging problem.

Tareq, SM; Rahman, MTU; Islam, AZMZ; Baddruzzaman, ABM; Ali, MA

Evaluation of climate-induced waterlogging hazards in the south-west coast of Bangladesh using Geoinformatics

Environmental Monitoring And Assessment

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-018-6591-9

To meet the future food demand, supply should be increased. Crop production in Africa is projected to increase in the future. However, can the crop production trends guarantee future food security? For illustrative analyses, cereal was used on theassumption, following a recent study, that the changes in its production are representative of those for other major food crops. For 50 African countries, trends and variability in cereal production, yield, and area harvested from 1961 to 2014 as well as the ratio of production to population (RPP) were analyzed by testing the null hypothesis H-0 (no trend) and H-0 (natural randomness) at =0.05. For negative (positive) trends in production, yield, area harvested, and RPP, respectively, H-0 (no trend) was rejected (p < 0.05) in 2% (63%), 0% (38%), 2% (45%) and 15% (4%) of the countries. Regardless of the trend significance, there was an increase (a decrease) in production and RPP of 94% (6%) and 29% (71%), respectively, of the countries. Cereal production, yield, and area harvested as well as RPP exhibited positive and negative anomalies in a clustered way in time. In 78% of the countries, whereas cereal production exhibited a positive trend, RPP was characterized by a decrease. The H-0 (natural randomness) was rejected (p<0.05) for negative anomalies in RPP of many 75%of the countries. In 87% of the African countries, cereal production was significantly (p < 0.05) linked to area harvested. The characterization of RPP by both an oscillatory behavior over multi-decadal time scales anda general negative trend suggests that the possible optimism in the projected increase in food production should be taken prudently. By 2050, poverty will still be at significant levels thereby strongly causing food insecurity in many of the African countries (especially from the sub-Saharan region). To ensure food security, it is recommended that yield gap closure should be supplemented with an improvement of access to markets for smallholder farmers, and promotion of income generating activities outside farming.

Onyutha, C

African crop production trends are insufficient to guarantee food security in the sub-Saharan region by 2050 owing to persistent poverty

Food Security

https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-018-0839-7

This study was aimed at analyzing time-series trends and variability analysis of observed rainfall and temperature records from 16 stations during the 1985-2015 period. Besides, it focused on the smallholders' perceptions, including the analysis of their response strate-gies to both observed and perceived climate variability and its determinants. Both purpo-sive and random sampling procedures were used. Mixed methods (quantitative and quali-tative) of the research were used. The sample household survey method was used to col-lect primary data from smallholder farmers, while key informant interviews were used to gather qualitative data from the experts. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to col-lect quantitative data, whereas a discussion guide checklist was used to gather qualitative data. A total of 397 respondents and 24 key informants were used as sources of primary data. In addition, visits to the National Meteorology Agency of Ethiopia were made to col-lect recorded climate data. Descriptive statistics and econometric models were used to an-alyze quantitative data, whereas thematic categorization was used to analyze and report qualitative data. The results show that both the summer and annual rainfall have an in-creasing trend but are not statistically significant. With regards to variability, low to mod-erate levels of variability were recorded according to the seasons and annual rainfall. The result of the Mann-Kendall test shows that the mean minimum temperature was raised by 0.05 degrees C while the maximum temperature rose by 0.03 degrees C/30 years. The monthly maximum temperature also shows an increasing trend, with the lowest record during August (22.05 degrees C) and the highest in March (26.49 degrees C. Besides, smallholder farmers' perceptions were in accordance with recorded station data. In response to both observed and perceived cli-mate variability and its extremes, smallholder farmers in the study area were striving to adopt different adaptation strategies. Rain variability, frequency of extension contact, years of farming experience, access to institutions and infrastructure, wealth status, market ac-cess, and the number of active labor force within the household all hampered smallholder farmers' effort s to implement potential measures. In contrast, the high prices of chemicals and improved seed, access to credit services, land size, and limited access to accurate and timely early warning information all negatively and significantly influenced the adaptation decisions of smallholder farmers in the area.

Tofu, DA; Mengistu, M

Observed time series trend analysis of climate variability and smallholder adoption of new agricultural technologies in west Shewa, Ethiopia

Scientific African

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2022.e01448

Purpose The decision of livelihood based on the embankment characters is essentially multivariate. Making an effort to do the bivariate modelling may eliminate the useful socio-economic information in the interdependent and simultaneous adaptation choices (Dorfman, 1996). Hence, the more appropriate method is multiple-choice decisions to livelihood adoption based on the embankment category. The purpose of this study is to find out whether the inhabitants of Sundarban really consider embankment as their lifeline, what they think about its sustainability and what the outer world thinks about the embankment. Design/methodology/approach To analyse this study, the multinomial logit (MNL) model has been used. This model gives a platform to study the influence of the factors on livelihood choice decisions. In this MNL model, the livelihood decisions are categorized based on their primary livelihood status at the survey. Thus, the choice of livelihood among individuals is explained in terms of the livelihood and the household characteristics. Findings This result can possibly explain the fact that increasing population or man power and increasing annual income and protection from embankment failure may reduce the need to choose any other form of economy apart from the indigenous one, as the society is dominated by farmers who own very small plots of land and face consequences like crop failure every year because of natural calamities. A unit increase in annual income would result in a 0.53% decrease in the probability of choosing labourer as occupation and 0.57% decrease in the probability of choosing fishing/meen collection as occupation. Research limitations/implications The district is vast enough, and it is difficult to study all the blocks. Initially, nine blocks were identified as affected blocks from various literature reviews. Those blocks are Sagar, Patharpratima, Kultali, Gosaba, Kakdwip, Canning I, Canning II, Namkhana and Basanti. Pilot surveys were done to all those nine blocks identified above. After such a long and rigorous procedure, blocks were verified from available secondary data. Villages from vulnerable and less vulnerable parts of the later mentioned blocks are picked up as purposive sample, and household surveys are done on the basis of random sampling.

Saha, S; Hazra, S; Ghosh, T

How embankment influences coastal livelihood in the context of climate adaptation - a case study of Indian Sundarban Delta

International Journal Of Disaster Resilience In The Built Environment

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDRBE-08-2021-0119

Coastal floods are the most prominent natural disaster causing severe damages to the local communities regarding food security, economy and shelter. Risks can be defined by physiographical sensitivity and vulnerability associated with socio-economic, demographic and infrastructure aspects of the region. Population with poor socio-economic status and high dependence on natural resources for livelihood in coastal dwellings of rural India are extremely vulnerable to flood hazards. Policy formulation to reduce coastal flood risks necessitates quantifying hazard vulnerability at an administrative scale. In this context, we propose a method for evaluating the coastal flood risk of an island located in the habited part of Sundarbans, West Bengal. Extending up to 282 sq. km, Sagar Island has been a keystone in harbouring and supporting both local and migrant population since the 1880s. Land-use classification of the island indicates an increase of 1.7% to 3.6% in the built-up class, almost double in the past eight years (2012-2020). A considerable rise in area under the water bodies is also seen from 6.6 to 8.6%, signifying fair evidence of a coastal breach. Flood risk assessment of Sagar Island was carried out using high spatial resolution data from Indian remote sensing satellites and census data. This assessment was performed by modifying the established MCDA technique considering the data limitations and accounting accessibility to infrastructure as a novel variable to a multi-dimensional framework. The framework maps spatial vulnerability of the region using sub-factors such as socio-demographic, economic, infrastructure and accessibility. The exposure profile of the area is drawn with the help of topographic factors and classified land-use results. Literature evidence was used to develop classification rules for data standardization from very high to very low based on their flood sensitivity. Further, the factors and sub-factors were ranked using AHP by a panel of experts belonging to diverse fields such as disaster management, regional planning, environment, hydrology and social science. The weighted sum technique was used to quantify total vulnerability and exposure parameters, respectively. The total risk map generated is the product of the hazard and vulnerability map of the region. The findings reveal the dominance of economic and accessibility parameters in defining the vulnerability of the regional population towards coastal flood risks. Proximity to coastline and tidal creeks enhances disaster sensitivity due to frequent inundation, erosion, saltwater intrusion and complete submergence of land area.

Narendr, A; Vinay, S; Aithal, BH; Das, S

Multi-dimensional parametric coastal flood risk assessment at a regional scale using GIS

Environment Development And Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-021-01839-6

Robust decision-making for climate change adaptation under deep uncertainty is a common challenge faced by policymakers and scientists in the world. In recent years, the limitations of risk assessment and adaptation planning based on the prediction results of climate models have become increasingly acknowledged. The uncertainties embodied in the model specifications, model parameterizations, prediction results, decision implementation process, and context changes bring significant risks to decision-making far beyond the general recognition of uncertainty drawn from historical data. Such combined and future-looking uncertainty is termed deep uncertainty. Researchers have applied robust decision-making (RDM) theory, adaptation pathways (AP) method, and engineering options analysis (EOA) method to climate change adaptation decision-making research. These theories and techniques can help scientists and policy makers to couple systematic analysis with thoughtful deliberation, typically in coordination with stakeholders, to consider the implications of choices under likely and unlikely future conditions, and thus to better grasp the impact of deep uncertainty on climate change decision-making. The literature on RDM, AP, and EOA is huge and in this review paper, we focus on their advancements and applications in the field of coastal flood control, and review the main strengths and interconnections of these three methods. The RDM method combines the traditional control theory with modern management decision-making theory, focuses on future scenario generation, cost-benefit comparisons of multiple adaptation measures under different future scenarios, and conducts the comparative static screening of the large numbers of scenarios-adaptation measure combinations. The AP method pays more attention to the most plausible scenario-adaptation measure combinations as time goes towards the future, rather than giving the full consideration of all future scenarios, and promotes the consideration of solutions that are adaptable through time. The EOA method is based on the framework of the AP method, with a focus on the specific engineering design. As a consequence, it may lack consideration for larger-scale application and implications. This paper considers how these three methods can be integrated to serve the decision-making process which is characterized by multiple decision goals, large number of plausible future scenarios, and large number of feasible mitigation and adaptation measures. A demonstrative case study of Shanghai is presented for this purpose. This case study proposes a framework to serve the mission of dynamic adaptation planning and engineering designs by combining the strengths of RDM, AP and EOA.

Tian, Z; Wu, WX; Liu, JG; Sun, LX

A review of decision-making methods for climate change adaptation under deep uncertainty: With a focus on flooding control in coastal cities

Chinese Science Bulletin-Chinese

https://doi.org/10.1360/TB-2021-1218

Adaptation to climate change raises important governance issues in terms of governance structures and mechanisms, stakeholders' involvement, and links with the existing and wider-scale strategies. Notwithstanding the increasing attention at the global and European level, precise recommendations for the governance of climate change at the geographical macro-regional level are still lacking. Macro-regions span several states with some common morphological or climatic features and adopt wider-scale strategies which are not mandatory or do not take sufficient account of the specificities of any included regions. Each region is differently administered and adopts specific climate adaptation strategies for addressing just the challenges of the territories they govern, without considering the effects on the neighbouring ones. They also decentralize the climate policies towards the lowest levels of government, and this has increased the number of local bodies involved and promoted the participation of non-governmental players and citizens. Within the macro-regions, local climate conditions and their changes can be similar; however, their impacts can vary significantly at the individual territory level, and their effects can extend beyond traditional administrative boundaries. Dealing with these changes is particularly challenging in the Alpine area, which extends across 48 regions/autonomous provinces belonging to eight different European countries and is governed by three different international/transnational strategies. This territory represents a fragile ecosystem due to the current climate changes, which have influenced the climate conditions differently at the local level, as well as the richness of natural resources, and the opportunity to exploit them for economic reasons. South Tyrol (IT) is one of the autonomous provinces located in this area that is currently addressing the expected and unexpected impacts of climate change. Unlike other Italian Alpine regions, this region boasts a wider legislative autonomy, which enables the creation of more targeted climate adaptation policies and their decentralisation to the lowest level of administration, including the non-governmental players and citizens. As a result, the climate adaptation governance framework appears complex and hard to govern due to the plurality of actors and governmental levels at Alpine and regional/provincial levels. The present article sheds light on this framework, analysing specifically the three above-mentioned governance issues: governance structures, stakeholders' involvement mechanisms, and links with the existing wider-scales strategies. While discussing these topics, it then refers specifically to South Tyrol for the case study.

Cattivelli, V

Climate Adaptation Strategies and Associated Governance Structures in Mountain Areas. The Case of the Alpine Regions

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su13052810

This study focused on assessing agricultural land use practices and livelihood changes as affected by long-term erratic rainfall patterns characterized by flood and drought cycles in the Bhungroo Irrigation Technology (BIT) piloted sites, West Mamprusi upper and lower catchment area in Ghana. The study defined environmental flow restoration (EFR) factors based on irrigation water demand, natural outflows (e.g. drainage, seepage and percolation), evaporative outflows, rainfall and stored water. Agro-ecological resilience (AER) factors included flooding intensity, crop production under dry season, flood recession, and irrigation, and livestock as well as mixed farming was assessed. The framework of Evaluating Sustainable Land Management (FESLM) was utilized to assess changes in land use and trends analyzed by the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) technique. The main observed land use practices were subsistence cultivation with limited irrigation 72.8%, subsistence cultivation without irrigation 64.5% and livestock keeping with some cultivation 87.4%. Corresponding land use mean weights impact on the EFR and AER were 9, 9, 8, and 9, 8, 7 respectively. The study noted that precipitation was of higher significance than temperature in terms of hydro-climate determinants in both upper and lower catchment areas. Mean monthly precipitation amount and intensity were highest between June-July in the upper catchment while in the lower catchment it was between July-August. These months corresponded with high risk of flooding and waterlogging in both catchments. The opposite was observed in March with access to irrigation water being the most EFR factor influencing the resilience of BIT especially at the upper catchment area. In terms of academic contribution, this paper posits in the hydro-climatic context that excess pressure exerted from a combination of micronized factors such as waterlogging of farmlands, flood recession rate, irri-gation capabilities, climate preparedness, adoption and transferability of innovations and scal-ability of climate innovations are likely be the critical elements which accelerate the climate vulnerability of arid and semi-arid catchment areas. B

Nkpeebo, AY; Mavimbela, SSW

Analyzing changes in land use practices and livelihoods in the Bhungroo irrigation technology Volta basin piloted sites, West Mamprusi District, Ghana

Heliyon

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e14907

The agricultural sector is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in Ethiopia, as it is the basis of the economy and the primary source of employment. This study investigated the implementation of mitigation and adaptation practices in smallholder farms in Ethiopia, estimated GHG emissions associated with mitigation practices, and identified potential mitigation options and barriers and enabling factors for implementation. Twenty-five smallholder farmers were selected by a local development agency and interviewed in the field about their land use and land management practices and the Mitigation Options Tool (MOT) was used to estimate GHG emissions, to identify mitigation options and co-benefits, and as a platform for promoting learning and knowledge exchange across different types of stakeholders. All farmers interviewed in the field acknowledged changes in the climate, but only some were implementing adaptation practices to cope with such changes, namely, crop rotations, planting new crop types, and the early sowing of crops. Fewer mitigation practices were implemented, namely reduced tillage and application of manure in cereal crops and potatoes. These practices were mainly implemented because of their benefits for soil conservation (e.g. fertility, soil water holding capacity, yield stabilization, erosion avoidance) rather than for mitigation (carbon sequestration) purposes. Greenhouse gas emissions from the application of synthetic fertilizer to crops, and from livestock production varied widely across farmers depending on the amount of fertilizer applied and the number and type of livestock raised. Tenancy rights and extension services were identified as potential enablers of the adoption of climate change mitigation and adaptation practices by smallholder farmers in Ethiopia, and competing uses for straw was a potential barrier for the incorporation of residues in the soil. Barriers and enabling factors should be assessed thoroughly through further engagement with farmers as well as data on the amount of organic matter added to the soil, as these practices have co-benefits in terms of soil conservation, which are especially relevant for climate change adaptation in semi-dry climates. The MOT could be used in the future as a facilitator for knowledge exchange between researchers and practitioners in Ethiopia, and in other developing countries where data availability is low, to support the identification of effective climate change mitigation and adaptation actions. Key policy insights Climate change mitigation practices in agriculture can provide co-benefits for adaptation and food security, including the stabilization of crop yields, especially in semi-dry climates; more evidence about these co-benefits is needed.

Feliciano, D; Recha, J; Ambaw, G; MacSween, K; Solomon, D; Wollenberg, E

Assessment of agricultural emissions, climate change mitigation and adaptation practices in Ethiopia

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2022.2028597

Flooding is a major natural hazard in many parts of the world, and its frequency and magnitude are projected to increase with global warming. With increased concern over ongoing climate change, more detailed and precise information about climate-change risks is required for formulating local-scale countermeasures. However, the impacts of biases in climate-model outputs on river-flood simulation have not been fully evaluated, and thus evaluation of future flood risks using hazard maps (high-resolution spatial-distribution maps of inundation depths) has not been achieved. Therefore, this study examined methods for constructing future-flood-hazard maps and discussed their validity. Specifically, we compared the runoff-correction method that corrects for bias in general-circulation-model (GCM) runoff using the monthly climatology of reanalysis runoff with the lookup method, which uses the GCM simulation results without bias correction to calculate changes in the return period and depends on the reanalysis simulation to determine absolute flood depths. The results imply that the runoff-correction method may produce significantly different hazard maps compared to those based on reanalysis of runoff data. We found that, in some cases, bias correction did not perform as expected for extreme values associated with the hazard map, even under the historical climate, as the bias of extreme values differed from that of the mean value. We found that the change direction of a future hazard (increase or decrease) obtained using the runoff-correction method relative to the reference reanalysis-based hazard map may be inconsistent with changes projected by Catchment-based Macro-scale Floodplain Model (CaMa-Flood) simulations based on GCM runoff input in some cases. On the other hand, the lookup method produced future-hazard maps that are consistent with flood-hazard changes projected by CaMa-Flood simulations obtained using GCM runoff input, indicating the possibility of obtaining a reasonable inundated-area distribution. These results suggest that the lookup method is more suitable for future-flood hazard-map construction than the runoff-correction method. The lookup method also has the advantage of facilitating research on efficient construction of future-climate hazard maps, as it allows for improvement of the reanalysis hazard map through upgrading of the model and separate estimation of changes due to climate change. We discuss future changes at the global scale in inundation areas and the affected population within the inundation area.

Kimura, Y; Hirabayashi, Y; Kita, Y; Zhou, XD; Yamazaki, D

Methodology for constructing a flood-hazard map for a future climate

Hydrology And Earth System Sciences

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1627-2023

Low-income producers and consumers of food in Africa are more vulnerable to climate change, owing to their comparatively limited ability to invest in more adapted institutions and technologies under increasing climatic risks. Therefore, the way we manage our food systems needs to be urgently changed if the goal is to achieve food security and sustainable development more quickly. This review paper analyzes the nexus climate-smart agriculture-food systems-sustainable development in order to draw sound ways that could allow rapid transformation of food systems in the context of climate change pressure. We followed an integrative review approach based on selected concrete example-experiences from ground-implemented projects across Africa (Ghana, Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, in West Africa, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, and Tanzania in East Africa). Mostly composed of examples from the Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS) Research Program of the CGIAR (former Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research) and its partners, these also included ground initiatives from non-CGIAR that could provide demonstrable conditions for a transformative agriculture and food systems. The lessons learnt from the ground implementation of climate-smart agriculture (CSA), in the African context, were instrumental to informing the actions areas of the food-system transformation framework suggested in this paper (reroute, de-risk, reduce, and realign). Selected CSA example-cases to inform these action areas included 24 initiatives across Africa, but with a focus on the following studies for an in-depth analysis: (1) the climate-smart village approach to generate knowledge on climate-smart agriculture (CSA) technologies and practices for their scaling, (2) the use of climate information services (CIS) to better manage climate variability and extremes, and (3) the science-policy interfacing to mainstream CSA into agricultural development policies and plans. The analysis of these examples showed that CSA can contribute driving a rapid change of food systems in Africa through: (1) the implementation of relevant climate-smart technologies and practices to reroute farming and rural livelihoods to new climate-resilient and low-emission trajectories

Zougmoré, RB; Läderach, P; Campbell, BM

Transforming Food Systems in Africa under Climate Change Pressure: Role of Climate-Smart Agriculture

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su13084305

This study aims at assessing the vulnerability of six key crops (maize, beans, cassava, millet, groundnuts, and sweet potatoes) to variations in growing season precipitation at both the national and regional scale (southwest) in Uganda.To achieve this objective, a vulnerability model that is a function of sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity is used. Crop yield data for the period 1998-2017 for both the national scale and regional level analysis were collected from FAOSTAT and the Crop Yield Gap Atlas respectively. Precipitation data for the period 1998-2017 for both the national scale and regional level analysis were collected from the Climate Change Knowledge Portal of the World Bank Group. Adaptive capacity which reflects how the crops and the farmers growing these crops are adapted was measured using two proxies (literacy and poverty rates) and were collected from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics, UBOS (Uganda national house- hold survey 2002.https://www.ubos.org/wp-content/uploads/publications/03_2018unhs_200203_report.PDF: 2002 Uganda populations and household census analytical report: education and literacy,2006. http://www. ubos.org/onlinefiles/uploads/ubos/pdf%20documents/2002%20CensusEducAnalyticalReport.pdf: Uganda national house-hold survey 20012/2013, 2014. https://www.ubos.org/wp-content/uploads/publication/04_20182012_13_UNHS_Final_Report.pdf; Uganda natinal household survey 2016/2017, 2018. https://www.ubos.org/wp-content/uploads/publication/03_20182016)UNHS_FINAL_REPORT.pdf) and Daniels (Measuring poverty trends in Uganda with non-monetary indicators,2011. http://www.fo.org/fileadmin/templats/ess/pages/rural/wye_city_group/2011/documents/sessin3/Daniels_-_Paper.pdf). The results show that at the national scale, cassava is the most vulnerable crop while maize is the least vulnerable crop while at the regional scale millet is the most vulnerable crop and sweet potatoes are least vulnerable.

Epule, TE; New, MG

Vulnerability of crop yields to variations in growing season precipitation in Uganda

Sn Applied Sciences

https://doi.org/10.1007/s42452-019-0912-7

The Paris Agreement aims to limit global mean temperature rise this century to well below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. This target has wide-ranging implications for Europe and its cities, which are the source of substantial greenhouse gas emissions. This paper reports the state of local planning for climate change by collecting and analysing information about local climate mitigation and adaptation plans across 885 urban areas of the EU-28. A typology and framework for analysis was developed that classifies local climate plans in terms of their alignment with spatial (local, national and international) and other climate related policies. Out of eight types of local climate plans identified in total we document three types of stand-alone local climate plans classified as type Al (autonomously produced plans), A2 (plans produced to comply with national regulations) or A3 (plans developed for international climate networks). There is wide variation among countries in the prevalence of local climate plans, with generally more plans developed by central and northern European cities. Approximately 66% of EU cities have a type Al, A2, or A3 mitigation plan, 26% an adaptation plan, and 17% a joint adaptation and mitigation plan, while about 33% lack any form of stand-alone local climate plan (i.e. what we classify as Al, A2, A3 plans). Mitigation plans are more numerous than adaptation plans, but planning for mitigation does not always precede planning for adaptation. Our analysis reveals that city size, national legislation, and international networks can influence the development of local climate plans. We found that size does matter as about 80% of the cities with above 500,000 inhabitants have a comprehensive and stand-alone mitigation and/or an adaptation plan (Al). Cities in four countries with national climate legislation (A2), i.e. Denmark, France, Slovakia and the United Kingdom, are nearly twice as likely to produce local mitigation plans, and five times more likely to produce local adaptation plans, compared to cities in countries without such legislation. Al and A2 mitigation plans are particularly numerous in Denmark, Poland, Germany, and Finland: while Al and A2 adaptation plans are prevalent in Denmark, Finland, UK and France.

Reckien, D; Salvia, M; Heidrich, O; Church, JM; Pietrapertosa, F; De Gregorio-Hurtado, S; D'Alonzo, V; Foley, A; Simoes, SG; Lorencová, EK; Orru, H; Orru, K; Wejs, A; Flacke, J; Olazabal, M; Geneletti, D; Feliu, E; Vasilie, S; Nador, C; Krook-Riekkola, A; Matosovic, M; Fokaides, PA; Ioannou, BI; Flamos, A; Spyridaki, NA; Balzan, MV; Fülöp, O; Paspaldzhiev, I; Grafakos, S; Dawson, R

How are cities planning to respond to climate change? Assessment of local climate plans from 885 cities in the EU-28

Journal Of Cleaner Production

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.03.220

As the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector has begun to manifest itself in its severity, adaptation planning has come under scrutiny for favoring the preservation of status-quo conditions over more substantial changes. The uptake of transformational adaptations, involving a significant re-structuring of the agricultural system, is however hindered by a lack of assessment tools capable of quantifying the effects of these often more complex, far-reaching, and unprecedented changes. Agent-based models can simulate decision processes and multi-level feedbacks between system components and may therefore illustrate how transformational adaptations emerge and help identify cases where their implementation is necessary and desirable. We explore this modelling potential and aim to quantify (1) how climate change, farmer behavior and water policies may influence strategic adaptation decision-making at the farm-level, (2) the extent to which implemented adaptations represent transformations, and (3) their impact on farm structure and wider socio-ecological change. We investigate these aims through a case study of crop farming systems in the drought-prone historical region of Romagna (NE Italy), integrating insight from stakeholder interviews, local reports, spatially-explicit biophysical data and behavioral theory in the construction of an agent-based model. Results show that, on average, more than half of all implemented adaptations are transformations, thereby requiring important social and financial investments from farmers. The number of implemented transformations is highest in scenarios where drought risk perception among farmers is more widespread, notably in scenarios simulating drier climates, more adaptive behaviors and policies promoting greater water use efficiency. Under higher drought risk perception, farmers are motivated to explore a broader set of adaptations, including those outside of the trajectory determined by their farming strategy. This process particularly favors the implementation of transformational increases in farm size and irrigated area, eventually stimulating farmers to adopt an expansionist strategy. Regionally, these adaptations lead to the smallest decline in agricultural extent with fewest, yet highest profit-earning farmers, largely exacerbating presently occurring trends. Under policy scenarios simulating increased irrigation availability, fewer farmers initially experience drought and therefore perceive a drought risk. Consequently, fewer farmers undertake transformational adaptations and switch from a contractive to an expansive strategy, culminating in a relatively smaller and less profitable agricultural extent despite a larger farmer population.

Zagaria, C; Schulp, CJE; Zavalloni, M; Viaggi, D; Verburg, PH

Modelling transformational adaptation to climate change among crop farming systems in Romagna, Italy

Agricultural Systems

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2020.103024

A defining characteristic of many rainfed tropical agricultural systems is their vulnerability to weather variability. There is now increased attention paid to climate-agriculture links as the world is focused on climate change. This has shown the need for it understanding of current and future climate and the links to agricultural investment decisions, particularly farmers' decisions, and that integrated strategies for coping with climate change need to start with managing current climate risk. Research, largely from an Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Eastern and Central Africa (ASARECA) project to demonstrate the value of such increased understanding, is presented in this issue of the journal. Key lessons from this research are as follows: 1. Statistical methods of analysis of historical climate data that are relevant to agriculture need not be complex. The most critical point is to describe the climate in terms of events of direct relevance to farming (such as the date of the start of a rainy season) rather than simple standard measures (such as annual total rainfall). 2. Analysis requires access to relevant data, tools and expertise. Daily climate data, both current and historical, arc primarily the responsibility of national meteorological services (NMS). Accessing such data, particularly daily data, is not always easy. Including stall from the NMS as research partners, not just data providers, can reduce this problem. 3. Farmers' perceptions of climate variation, risk and change are complex. They are keenly aware of variability, but there is evidence that they over-estimate risks of negative impacts and thereby Fill to make use of good conditions when they occur. There is also evidence that multiple causes of changes arc confounded, so farmers who observe decreasing crop production may not be distinguishing between rainfall change and declining soil fertility or other conditions. Hence any project working with farmers' coping and adaptation to climate must also have access to analyses of observed climate data (Foal nearby recording stations. 4. Mechanisms for reducing and coping with risks are exemplified in pastoral systems that exist in the most variable environments. New approaches to risk transfer, such as index-based insurance, show potential for positive impact. 5. Skilful seasonal forecasts, which give a better indication of the coming season than a simple average, would help farmers take decisions for the coming cropping season. Increasing meteorological knowledge shows that such forecasting is possible for parts of Africa. There are institutional barriers to farmers accessing and using the forecast information.

Coe, R; Stern, RD

ASSESSING AND ADDRESSING CLIMATE-INDUCED RISK IN SUB-SAHARAN RAINFED AGRICULTURE: LESSONS LEARNED

Experimental Agriculture

https://doi.org/10.1017/S001447971100010X

This paper reviews research on African climate from the major Sahel droughts in the early 1970s to current interest in improving the use of climate science within societal decision-making processes. During the last decade, and particularly since the mid-2000s, the development community has begun to engage seriously with the issue of climate change and its implications for the world's poor. This has led to a growing interaction with the climate research community. Recent climate literature is used to explore four research themes and identify knowledge gaps and areas with potential to adapt climate research for development needs. The first theme considers the development and use of seasonal forecasts and their portrayal by some as a relative success story, but with important skill limitations and need for much greater interaction with users. Forecast use is set within a wider context of generally low scientific understanding of the drivers of Africa's high climate variability and low research capacity. The second theme addresses the main influences on African climate variability and their response to climate change; high levels of uncertainty for future rainfall in some regions where remote influences are poorly resolved in global climate models. The third theme summarizes key elements of climate impacts research and shows a situation of rather ad hoc case studies and little engagement with decision-makers. Recent studies reveal an important move to couple more effectively impacts research with adaptation by focusing on the near future and drawing on current climate-society relationships. The fourth theme looks at the emerging evidence of anthropogenic climate change and secondary effects on African environments and, apart from widespread warming, shows an equivocal situation with evidence for anthropogenic ocean warming affecting regional rainfall. Detection is hampered by data availability and high levels of background variability. Finally, three emergent issues are discussed: (1) reflection on African climate research capacity and international collaboration suggests it is timely to review experiences from recent climate programs in Africa; (2) attempts to untangle climate signals from within complex livelihood systems face significant methodological challenges. These include the need to reconcile scientific observations and local perceptions and to clarify views that may over-simplify climate-society interactions, to avoid construction of a crisis narrative on Africa and climate change; (3) the challenge of linking climate science with decision-making to inform adaptation. Demand for information and confidence often exceeds what climate science can realistically achieve in many parts of Africa.

Conway, D

Adapting climate research for development in Africa

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Climate Change

https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.115

Purpose - The purpose of the instrument is to favour and strengthen, in a timely and relevant manner, the processes of design, planning, investment, execution and evaluation of various public and private initiatives in the territory, thereby strengthening the preventive, responsive and adaptive capacities of the communities, institutions and territory. The instrument allows the generation of a single single-community diagnosis, a definition of a baseline which leads to progress assessment at different levels and provides specific risk management recommendations to municipalities. Design/methodology/approach - The definition of the purpose and design of this tool was the result of the work in a year by a group of national experts from the public, private, organised civil society and academia members of the National Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction. This initial stage has sought to capture the different sectoral visions with a multidimensional approach that considers the territorial differences cautioning that local governments are key actors to achieve risk reduction, and they are also the first respondents and responsible for managing their territory and community. In order to help local governments, to understand their situation, the experts' group established that the assessment should consist of a guided self-diagnosis using a survey. The dimensions considered are as follows: governance, territorial planning, socio-economic and demographic conditions and climate change and natural resources. The four dimensions encompass in total 41 variables that are considered relevant for the disaster risk management discipline. Findings - The rural to semiurban municipalities classified as medium or low development, according to the national standard, present a high-risk level in the dimension of territorial ordering. The municipalities that show a moderate to low dependence on the common municipal fund have a low risk in all the evaluated dimensions, related to greater financial autonomy and own or self-management of resources. The municipalities with low percentage of poverty by income are better evaluated in all the dimensions showing a low level of the Communal Underlying Risk Factors Index (CURFI). A high percentage of communes with a low level of the CURFI have low-urban growth in the last 15 years. Research limitations/implications One of the main difficulties was raising awareness amongst the mayors that the reduction of the underlying factors does not necessarily imply monetary investment, understanding the scarcity of local government resources. The important thing was to sensitise them that the diagnosisper sewas already a result to manage risk in their community.

Silva, N; Mena, C

Identifying the underlying risk factors of local communities in Chile

Disaster Prevention And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/DPM-04-2020-0105

Tropical small islands are particularly vulnerable to environmental impacts. In the small islands of the Western Indian Ocean (WIO), multiple stressors of environmental and socio-economic change interact and intensify at reduced spatial scales. Actors and institutions need to respond to these changes through responses - reactive or proactive actions planned or implemented by individuals, groups or organisations; aimed at responding to changing contexts and scenarios, by reducing, preventing and/or reverting the risks and impacts of environmental change. Through a mixed-method systematic review of academic literature from 2010 to 2020 using the Web of Science literature database, we document the types of responses, actors involved and elements of effective responses. We analysed 329 studies focusing on nine WIO small island states and territories (SISTs) - Zanzibar, Mafia, Seychelles, Comoros, Mayotte, La Re acute accent union, Mauritius, Maldives and Lakshadweep. Using quantitative content analysis, we organised information into categories ranging from institutional (economic instruments, laws, policies and community based), social (educational and informational), infrastructural (engineered and technological) and ecological restoration-based responses. The articles varied in their geographical distribution, focus and depth with regard to the responses studied. Diverse responses are documented, that often overlap across categories and may be combined and pursued simultaneously. For example, responses range from coastal protection structures, land reclamation, land elevation and artificial islands to mangrove restoration, awareness raising programs, coastal zone regulations and climate induced migration and relocation policies. Responses were predominantly institutional (85% of 329 articles, n = 281) - mainly driven by governments. The most common social responses (53%, n = 183) were linked to environmental education programs and knowledge sharing platforms. Although the responses indicated an increasing interest in ecological restoration (27%, n = 91) and community-based initiatives (36%, n = 120), they were largely underrepresented in research. Cataloguing the different responses may help incorporate the diversity into well-informed decisions, offer alternative ways of thinking and highlight specific areas and response types that should be the focus of future research and practice. The elements influencing the effectiveness of responses were identified through thematic synthesis - relevance to the local social-ecological context, resources available (time and funding), knowledge (access, diversity, integration, transfer, innovative and anticipatory)

Poti, M; Huge, J; Shanker, K; Koedam, N; Dahdouh-Guebas, F

Learning from small islands in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO): A systematic review of responses to environmental change

Ocean & Coastal Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2022.106268

The coastal zone of The Gambia consists of 70 km open ocean coast and 200 km sheltered coast. Only about 20 km of the open coastline is significantly developed and this includes Banjul (the capital city), Bakau and Cape St. Mary, Fajara and the Tourism Development Area (TDA). Tourism is the most important economic sector in the coastal zone and contributes about 10% of the government revenue. Fisheries and agriculture are also important coastal industries. In this study the Aerial Videotape-assisted Vulnerability Analysis (AVVA) technique has been used to provide a detailed analysis of vulnerability to sea level rise, and adaptation strategies have been identified. The data used includes a video recording of the coastline, color infrared and black and white aerial photography, topographic maps, bathymetric maps, a geological map of The Gambia and still photographs. The data have been used to characterize the coastal zone into 9 geomorphological units, wherein the cultural and heritage sites of economic importance have been delineated and characterized according to their biophysical and economic importance. Future erosion rates have been projected by applying the Bruun Rule, and future total land loss due to inundation in response to global warming and accelerated sea level rise has been determined. The sea level rise scenarios considered are 0.2 m, 0.5 m, and 1.0 m per century. Inundation is estimated to be about 92.32 x 10(6) m(2) for a 1.0 m sea level rise, 45.89 x 10(6) m(2) for a 0.5 m sea level rise and 4.96 x 10(6) m(2) for a 0.2 m sea level rise. The greater part of this area lost will be wetlands and mangrove systems important for fish spawning areas and habitats for wildlife. Shoreline retreat is estimated to vary between about 6.8 m in cliffy areas to about 880 m for more flat and sandy areas based on the Bruun Rule. Population and physical structures at risk have been determined. Attempts have been made to report this loss in monetary terms, but firm figures are not yet available. Only one unit of the coastal zone has been evaluated.

Jallow, BP; Barrow, MKA; Leatherman, SP

Vulnerability of the coastal zone of The Gambia to sea level rise and development of response strategies and adaptation options

Climate Research

https://doi.org/10.3354/cr006165

Purpose Despite Bangladesh's great strides in formulating disaster management policies following the principles of good governance, the degree to which these policies have successfully been implemented at the local level remains largely unknown. The objectives of this study were two-fold: (1) to examine the roles and effectiveness of local-level governance and disaster management institutions, and (2) to identify barriers to the implementation of national policies and Disaster-Risk-Reduction (DRR) guidelines at the local community level. Design/methodology/approach Between January 2014 and June 2015 we carried out an empirical investigation in two coastal communities in Bangladesh. We employed a qualitative research and Case Study approach, using techniques from the Participatory Rural Appraisal toolbox to collect data from local community members as well as government and NGO officials. Findings Our study revealed that interactive disaster governance, decentralization of disaster management, and compliance by local-level institutions with good governance principles and national policy guidelines can be extremely effective in reducing disaster-loss and damages. According to coastal community members, the local governments have generally failed to uphold good governance principles, and triangulated data confirm that the region at large suffers from rampant corruption, political favoritism, lack of transparency and accountability and minimal inclusion of local inhabitants in decision-making - all of which have severely impeded the successful implementation of national disaster-management policies. Research limitations/implications While considerable research on good governance has been pursued, our understanding of good disaster governance and their criteria is still poor. In addition, although numerous national disaster management policy and good governance initiatives have been taken in Bangladesh, like many other developing countries, the nature and extent of their local level implementation are not well known. This study contributes to these research gaps, with identification of further research agenda in these areas. Practical implications The study focuses on good disaster governance and management issues and practices, their strengths and limitations in the context of cyclone and storm surges along coastal Bangladesh. It offers specific good disaster governance criteria for improving multi-level successful implementation. The paper deals with International Sendai Framework that called for enhancement of local level community resilience to disasters. Thus, it contributes to numerous policy and practice areas relating to good disaster governance. Social implications Good disaster governance would benefit not only from future disaster losses but also from improved prevention and mitigation of natural hazards impact, benefiting society at large.

Uddin, MS; Haque, CE; Khan, MN

Good governance and local level policy implementation for disaster-risk-reduction: actual, perceptual and contested perspectives in coastal communities in Bangladesh

Disaster Prevention And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/DPM-03-2020-0069

Introduction: Food insecurity is a chronic problem affecting Inuit communities. The most comprehensive assessment of Inuit food security to-date, the Inuit Health Survey, reported that 70% of Inuit pre-school children lived in 'food insecure' households. Food banks and soup kitchens are relatively new in the Arctic but the number of users is increasing. Little is known about the experience and determinants of food insecurity among food program users who are often among the most marginalized (socially and economically) in communities. The use of participatory research methods when working in the north of Canada can promote meaningful knowledge exchange with community members and this approach was used in the present 'Photovoice' research. Photovoice uses photography to develop a baseline understanding of an issue, in this case the experience and determinants of food insecurity among users of community food programs in Iqaluit, Nunavut. The target population includes those who face significant social and economic marginalization, an often neglected group in Arctic food systems research. Methods: Eight regular users of food programs were recruited and engaged in a Photovoice research project to document factors determining their daily food consumption. The research method was introduced in workshops and discussion included the ethical concerns related to photography and how to take pictures. Participants were supplied with digital cameras, and asked to answer the following question using photography: 'What aspects of your everyday life affect what you eat and how much you have to eat?'. In the final workshop, photographs were discussed among the group and participants identified key themes in the photographs, offering an understanding of food insecurity from their perspectives. The group then discussed what should be done with the knowledge gained. Results: Factors improving food security were the customary systems for sharing 'country food', and the presence of social support networks in the community, such as the Food Bank, the Soup Kitchen and the Tukisigiarvik Center. Factors identified as negatively affecting food security were the high cost of food in the Arctic, and substance abuse. The participants decided by consensus whether and how the knowledge from this project would be disseminated. They decided that a museum exhibit of the photographs in the summer of 2010 and promotion of the results among policy-makers in Nunavut were of high priority.

Lardeau, MP; Healey, G; Ford, J

The use of Photovoice to document and characterize the food security of users of community food programs in Iqaluit, Nunavut

Rural And Remote Health

CONTEXT: The development of methods for improving the assessment of resilience of socio-ecological systems has become increasingly important as the severity and variability of global climate patterns continue to compound and intensify.OBJECTIVE: The present study was conducted with the aim of using a dynamically-coupled bio-physical and socioeconomic model to test the efficacy of stakeholder-defined policy measures in conferring resilience to two agroecological variables, farm income and water-table depth, experiencing both socio-ecological shocks and climatic stress in the Rechna Doab basin of northeastern Pakistan.METHODS: The objective was accomplished by using a dynamically-coupled physical and group-built system dynamics modelling framework for scenario testing and output generation, including three NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-DGGP), two relevant socio-ecological shock scenarios (market inflation and canal water supply variability), and three stakeholder-defined policy measures. Resilience was assessed using the following system functionality metrics: 1) The degree of return for each variable after a perturbation, i.e., the extent to which the observed variable returns to baseline functioning; 2) The return time of the variable to baseline functioning; 3) The rate of variable return to baseline; 4) Overall perturbation of the system post-disturbance; and 5) The corrective impact of the shock on system functionality. Differences in the resilience metrics were subsequently compared based on the behavioral change(s) of the study variables in response to the application of the three selected policy scenarios.RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The results presented here indicate that rainwater harvesting is the most effective stakeholder-defined policy measure for improving or maintaining resilience of the tested study variables in the Rechna Doab agricultural basin; this holds true for every climate and shock scenario with the exception of water table depth in the upper and mid-watershed regions under canal supply shock conditions, for which canal lining is the most effective policy measure. The irrigation improvement and canal lining policies were more effective in improving the resilience metrics of water-table depth than those of the farm income variable, as the water-table depth variable is not bound so tightly by economic constraints; although there were regional differences in policy efficacy, these trends hold true, on average, for the entire watershed.

Carper, JM; Alizadeh, MR; Adamowski, JF; Inam, A

Climate variability in agroecosystems: A quantitative assessment of stakeholder-defined policies for enhanced socio-ecological resilience

Agricultural Systems

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2022.103416

with farm size, leasehold/individual land ownership, age of cocoa farm, income, farm management training, and government support. Also, cocoa productivity increases with income, association membership, farm management training, access to agricultural information, and soil fertility, but reduces with farm size. SIGNIFICANCE: We delved deeper into the various soil water conservation practices adopted by cocoa farmers in Ghana to minimize the negative repercussions of climate change. The findings are relevant in understanding how cocoa farmers conserve soil moisture under the current climate dispensation as well as the inter-causal synergy between soil water conservation and cocoa productivity. We provide recommendations for policy- and decisionmakers on soil water conservation practices to enhance productivity in the cocoa sector. These include organization of farm management training programmes by government, non-governmental organizations, and other stakeholders for cocoa farmers. Also, there is the need to support cocoa farmers with input subsidies and climate CONTEXT: The impacts of climate change on soil water content and the resultant effects on agricultural productivity have raised a lot of concerns among cocoa farmers. This has rendered cocoa production a risky business. This makes soil water conservation practices crucial in cocoa production. Nonetheless, its adoption as a means to mitigate the adverse corollaries of climate change might be low in developing countries like Ghana. OBJECTIVE: Our study focuses on soil water conservation practices carried out by cocoa farmers in Ghana to cope with climate change, its impact on productivity, and the determinants. METHODS: We compiled primary data from 400 cocoa farmers. Due to potential inter-causal relationship between soil water conservation and productivity, we applied the three-stage least-squares and two-step Tobit with endogenous regressors. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The study found that 97% of cocoa farmers carry out soil water conservation practices as a coping strategy for climate change. These are application of organic fertilizers, mulching, planting of leguminous crops, retention of trees, and planting of shade trees. On average, cocoa farmers carry out two of these practices. The study revealed that cocoa productivity is directly associated with soil water conservation practices. Additionally, the number of soil water conservation practices carried out by cocoa farmers increases with farm size, leasehold/individual land ownership, age of cocoa farm, income, farm management training, and government support.

Amfo, B; Ali, EB; Atinga, D

Climate change, soil water conservation, and productivity: Evidence from cocoa farmers in Ghana

Agricultural Systems

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103172

A Decision Support System (DSS) is a highly efficient concept for managing complex objects in nature or humanmade phenomena. The main purpose of the present study is related to designing and implementation of real-time monitoring, prediction, and control system for flood disaster management as a DSS. Likewise, the problem of statement in the research is correlated to implementation of a system for different climates of Iran as a unique flood control system. For the first time, this study coupled hydrological data mining, Machine Learning (ML), and Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) as smart alarm and prevention systems. Likewise, it created the platform for conditional management of floods in Iran's different clusters of climates. According to the KMeans clustering system, which determines homogeneity of the hydrology of a specific region, Iran's rainfall is heterogeneous with 0.61 score, which is approved high efficiency of clustering in a vast country such as Iran with four seasons and different climates. In contrast, the relation of rainfall and flood disaster is evaluated by Nearest Neighbors Classification (NNC), Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD), Gaussian Process Classifier (GPC), and Neural Network (NN) algorithms which have an acceptable correlation coefficient with a mean of 0.7. The machine learning outputs demonstrated that based on valid data existence problems in developing countries, just with verified precipitation records, the flood disaster can be estimated with high efficiency. In the following, Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method as a Game Theory (GT) technique ranked the preventive flood damages strategies through three social (Se 1), environmental (Se 2), and economic (Se 3) crises scenarios. The solutions of flood disaster management are collected from literature review, and the opinion approves them of 9 senior experts who are retired from a high level of water resource management positions of Iran. The outcomes of the TOPSIS method proved that National announcement for public-institutional participation for rapid response and funding (G1-2), Establishment of delay structures to increase flood focus time to give the animals in the ecosystem the opportunity to escape to the upstream points and to preserve the habitat (G 2-8), and Granting free national financial resources by government agencies in order to rebuild sensitive infrastructure such as railways, hospitals, schools, etc.

Akbarian, H; Gheibi, M; Hajiaghaei-Keshteli, M; Rahmani, M

A hybrid novel framework for flood disaster risk control in developing countries based on smart prediction systems and prioritized scenarios

Journal Of Environmental Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114939

Background: Hurricane Katrina made landfall in New Orleans, Louisiana as a Category 3 storm in August 2005. Storm surges, levee failures, and the low-lying nature of New Orleans led to widespread flooding, damage to over 70% of occupied housing, and evacuation of 80-90% of city residents. Only 57% of the city's black population has returned. Many residents complain of gentrification following rebuilding efforts. Climate gentrification is a recently described phenomenon whereby the effects of climate change, most notably rising sea levels and more frequent flooding and storm surges, alter housing values in a way that leads to gentrification. Objective: To examine the climate gentrification following hurricane Katrina by (1) estimating the associations between flooding severity, ground elevation, and gentrification and (2) whether these relationships are modified by neighborhood level pre- and post-storm sociodemographic factors. Methods: Lidar data collected in 2002 were used to determine elevation. Water gauge height of Lake Ponchartrain was used to estimate flood depth. Using census tracts as a proxy for neighborhoods, demographic, housing, and economic data from the 2000 decennial census and the 2010 and 2015 American Community Survey 5-year estimates US Census records were used to determine census tracts considered eligible for gentrification (median income < 2000 Orleans Parish median income). A gentrification index was created using tract changes in education level, population above the poverty limit, and median household income. Proportional odds ordinal logistic regression was used with product terms to test for effect measure modification by sociodemographic factors. Results: Census tracts eligible for gentrification in 2000 were 80.2% black. Median census tract flood depth was significantly lower in areas eligible to undergo gentrification (0.70 m vs. 1.03 m). Residents of gentrification-eligible tracts in 2000 were significantly more likely to be black, less educated, lower income, unemployed, and rent their home rather than own. In 2015 in these same eligible tracts, areas that underwent gentrification became significantly whiter, more educated, higher income, less unemployed, and more likely to live in a multi-unit dwelling.

Aune, KT; Gesch, D; Smith, GS

A spatial analysis of climate gentrification in Orleans Parish, Louisiana post-Hurricane Katrina

Environmental Research

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2020.109384

In recent years, the frequency of catastrophes induced by natural hazards has increased, and flood events in particular have been recognized as one of the most threatening water-related disasters. Severe floods have occurred in Europe over the last decade, causing loss of life, displacement of people and heavy economic losses. Flood disasters are growing in frequency as a consequence of many factors, both climatic and non-climatic. Indeed, the current increase of water-related disasters can be mainly attributed to the increase of exposure (elements potentially at risk in flood-prone area) and vulnerability (i.e. economic, social, geographic, cultural and physical/environmental characteristics of the exposure). Besides these factors, the undeniable effect of climate change is projected to strongly modify the usual pattern of the hydrological cycle by intensifying the frequency and severity of flood events at the local, regional and global scale. Within this context, the need for developing effective and pro-active strategies, tools and actions which allow one to assess and (possibly) to reduce the flood risks that threatens different relevant receptors becomes urgent. Several methodologies to assess the risk posed by water-related natural hazards have been proposed so far, but very few of them can be adopted to implement the last European Flood Directive (FD). This paper is intended to introduce and present a state-of-the-art Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology to appraise the risk posed by floods from a physical-environmental perspective. The methodology, developed within the recently completed FP7-KULTURisk Project (Knowledge-based approach to develop a cULTUre of Risk prevention - KR) is flexible and can be adapted to different case studies (i.e. plain rivers, mountain torrents, urban and coastal areas) and spatial scales (i.e. from catchment to the urban scale). The FD compliant KR-RRA methodology is based on the concept of risk being function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. It integrates the outputs of various hydrodynamic models with site-specific bio-geophysical and socio-economic indicators (e.g. slope, land cover, population density, economic activities etc.) to develop tailored risk indexes and GIS-based maps for each of the selected receptors (i.e. people, buildings, infrastructure, agriculture, natural and semi-natural systems, cultural heritage) in the considered region

Ronco, P; Gallina, V; Torresan, S; Zabeo, A; Semenzin, E; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

The KULTURisk Regional Risk Assessment methodology for water-related natural hazards - Part 1: Physical-environmental assessment

Hydrology And Earth System Sciences

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5399-2014

The Bering Strait region is undergoing rapid environmental change linked to reductions in the extent and seasonal availability of sea ice. The goal of the present study was to assess the impacts that environmental change and loss of sea ice has had on marine subsistence resources and resource users in the communities of St. Lawrence Island (SLI), Alaska. The broader research design was multidisciplinary in order to document any shifts in the abundance and health of key marine subsistence species, while recording people's perceptions of changing environmental conditions in their lifetime. The present study focuses on the perceived social and material effects of climate change on SLI residents. To capture human perceptions and experiences, open ended interviews were conducted during three weeks in April and May 2019, during which time 25 SLI residents were interviewed. Four main themes were assessed: 1) key marine resources for SLI communities, 2) perceptions about changes in key resources, 3) community responses to change, and 4) the future of the subsistence way of life in these communities. Interviews were transcribed, coded for themes, and analyzed using MAXQDA software. Results indicate the four most discussed marine resources were Pacific walruses (Odobenus rosmarus divergens), seals, crabs, and fish. The largest changes observed in these resources included: decreased walrus harvests and limited access with increased hunting effort; an increase in the abundance of Hanasaki crab (Paralithodes brevipes) and limited crab harvests due to lack of shorefast ice; and increasing abundances of walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus) and Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus). SLI residents utilize a broad range of edible marine flora and fauna, and at times, eat less desirable prey items due to scarcity of preferred species. Lastly, most informants that discussed the future of a subsistence way of life, were concerned future generations will be harvesting and eating less subsistence resources. Due to environmental changes, and most specifically loss of sea ice, SLI communities may have to diversify the species that they harvest to continue maritime subsistence practices, or may turn to consuming more terrestrial and domestic sources of protein if available.

Tempel, JTL; Wise, S; Osborne, TQ; Sparks, K; Atkinson, S

Life without ice: Perceptions of environmental impacts on marine resources and subsistence users of St. Lawrence Island

Ocean & Coastal Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2021.105819

Owning to the losses incurred from the occurrence of certain events at Cultural Heritage Sites (CHS's), conservation of its Cultural Heritage (CH) assets is reported to be threatened. The losses while qualifying for disasters to an affected CHS have necessitated proactive measures in the conservation of CH assets (individual and collective) aimed at reducing the risks of their exposure to eventual disasters. Foremost in such measures is the assessment of Disaster Risks (DR) whereby good practice (assessment of DR) conceptualises it (DR) to being a collective interplay of four variables namely: hazards, vulnerability; capacity and exposure. While deeper insights to the manifestation of each variable is deemed to be gained through a technique that investigates each variable in a multi-level approach, researches in the CH domain are yet to fully apply such approach (particularly to all the variables). Therefore, this research examined the four DR variables with a view to explore their multi-level manifestations in the domain of CH conservation. With the aid of a structured questionnaire and by means of conducting a survey, data was collected from 204 respondents at The Historic Commercial and Residential Zone (Old Quarter) of the Core Zone of Malacca CHS in Malaysia. Using IBM SPSS Statistics 23.0, a 5-Step Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) was carried out to analyse the inputted data. The achievement of certain threshold requirements by the results of this research indicates the fulfilment of some objectives of EFA. For instance, the reduction of manifest items is evident from the 47 manifest items having factor loadings >= 0.6 as against the total of 58 manifest items initially used in the study. Additionally, while the 47 manifest items for all 10 factors retained fulfilled convergent validity (loadings of manifest items >= 0.6), the loadings for the rotation of all 10 factors fulfilled discriminant validity (loading <= 0.3). These 10 factors retained spread across the four DR variables as follows: hazards (natural and human induced); vulnerability (human, material and management-based); capacity (human, material and management-based); and exposure (heritage values and community assets). The EFA technique used in this research has enabled the multi-levelling of each variable within the sphere of variable-to-factor and then factor-to-manifest item.

Mansir, D; Kasim, N; Mat Radzuan, IS

AN EXPLORATION OF DISASTER RISK TO CULTURAL HERITAGE ASSETS: TOWARDS EFFECTIVE CONSERVATION

International Journal Of Conservation Science

Seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) can be used to identify appropriate risk management strategies and to reduce the sensitivity of rural industries and communities to climate risk. However, these forecasts have low utility among farmers in agricultural decision making, unless translated into a more understood portfolio of farm management options. Towards achieving this translation, we developed a mathematical programming model that integrates seasonal climate forecasts to assess 'what-if?' crop choice scenarios for famers. We used the Rayapalli village in southern India as a case study. The model maximises expected profitability at village level subject to available resource constraints. The main outputs of the model are the optimal cropping patterns and corresponding agricultural management decisions such as fertiliser, biocide, labour and machinery use. The model is set up to run in two steps. In the first step the initial climate forecast is used to calculate the optimal farm plan and corresponding agricultural management decisions at a village scale. The second step uses a 'revised forecast' that is given six weeks later during the growing season. In scenarios where the forecast provides no clear expectation for a dry or wet season the model utilises the total agricultural land available. A significant area is allocated to redgram (pigeon pea) and the rest to maize and paddy rice. In a forecast where a dry season is more probable, cotton is the predominant crop selected. In scenarios where a 'normal' season is expected, the model chooses predominantly cotton and maize in addition to paddy rice and redgram. As part of the stakeholder engagement process, we operated the model in an iterative way with participating farmers. For 'deficient' rainfall season, farmers were in agreement with the model choice of leaving a large portion of the agriculture land as fallow with only 40 ha (total area 136 ha) of cotton and subsistence paddy rice area While the model crop choice was redgram in 'above normal and wet seasons, only a few farmers in the village favoured redgram mainly because of high labour requirements, and the farmers perceptions about risks related to pests and diseases. This highlighted the discrepancy between the optimal cropping pattern, calculated with the model and the farmer's actual decisions which provided useful insights into factors affecting farmer decision making that are not always captured by models. We found that planning for a 'normal' season alone is likely to result in losses and opportunity costs and an adaptive climate risk management approach is prudent.

Nidumolu, UB; Lubbers, M; Kanellopoulos, A; van Ittersum, MK; Kadiyala, DM; Sreenivas, G

Engaging farmers on climate risk through targeted integration of bio-economic modelling and seasonal climate forecasts

Agricultural Systems

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2016.09.011

During periods of drought, coping mechanisms employed by society differ based on gender, and are related to socio-cultural implications. This study is premised on the gendered approach to drought-coping mechanisms by focusing on the manner in which communities undergoing drought adapt to the adversities experienced and thus employ gender-sensitive coping mechanisms. Socio-cultural implications emphasise and dictate the different gendered behaviour patterns within society. Thus, the purpose of this study was to determine and evaluate gender-differentiated coping mechanisms of withstanding drought used by communities in the Lubombo region of Eswatini. The exploration of this phenomenon utilised a mixed-methods approach to collecting data. This universal approach involved adopting both qualitative and quantitative techniques of gathering information to help in an in-depth analysis of the situation in the Lubombo region. Under the umbrella of mixed methodology, an exploratory sequential approach was used to collect data. The purpose was to allow findings from a qualitative phase to be developed and tested for wider application and validation using a quantitative approach. The collection tools used under the qualitative enquiry included semi-structured interviews, face-to-face interviews and a focus group. The information gathered was subsequently presented in a thematic manner to draw attention on the dynamics within coping mechanisms. Two sampling techniques were used: initial stratified random sampling (representing the population being sampled) followed by purposive sampling to specify population characteristics and thus locating individuals who match the characteristics. There were 179 respondents in the study, of which 83 respondents were part of the focus group discussions and the remaining 80 respondents engaged in self-completion survey questions. The gender spectrum of the respondents was uneven during the focus groups with 39 females and 44 males. However, during the self-completion survey questions, an even number of 40 males and 40 females participated. The gender gap observed displayed women as burdened with developing various coping mechanisms, whereas men solely adapted through seeking employment. Women's coping mechanisms included crop production, water management, foreign aid, sale of livestock and household functional change. In contrast, men's coping mechanisms involved migration and seeking employment. The disparities between men and women were observed as founded in cultural beliefs and practices as women tool a domestic role whilst men were tasked to be providers. This perspective directly impacts on the lines of vulnerabilities during drought, declaring women as the target population for social aid such as food packages from foreign aid and strong social capital.

Myeni, S; Wentink, GJ

A gendered approach to drought-coping mechanisms: A case of the Lubombo region, Eswatini

Td-The Journal For Transdisciplinary Research In Southern Africa

https://doi.org/10.4102/td.v17i1.744

The role of adaptation in impact assessment and integrated assessment of climate policy is briefly reviewed. Agriculture in the US is taken as exemplary of this issue. Historic studies in which no adaptation is assumed (so-called dumb farmer) versus farmer-agents blessed with perfect foresight (so-called clairvoyant farmer) are contrasted, and considered limiting cases as compared to realistic farmers. What kinds of decision rules such realistic farmer-agents would adopt to deal with climate change involves a range of issues. These include degrees of belief the climate is actually changing, knowledge about how it will change, foresight on how technology is changing, estimation of what will happen in competitive granaries and assumptions about what governmental policies will be in various regions and over time. Clearly, a transparent specification of such agent-based decision rules is essential to model adaptation explicitly in any impact assessment. Moreover, open recognition of the limited set of assumptions contained in any one study of adaptation demands that authors clearly note that each individual study can represent only a fraction of plausible outcomes. A set of calculations using the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) crop model is offered here as an example of explicit decision rules on adaptive behavior on climate impacts. The model is driven by a 2xCO(2) regional climate model scenario (from which a mock transient scenario was devised) to calculate yield changes for farmer-agents that practice no adaptation, perfect adaptation and 20-year-lagged adaptation, the latter designed to mimic the masking effects of natural variability on farmers' capacity to see how climate is changing. The results reinforce the expectation that the likely effects of natural variability, which would mask a farmer's capacity to detect climate change, is to place the calculated impacts of climate changes in two regions of the US in between that of perfect and no adaptation. Finally, the use of so-called hedonic methods (in which land prices in different regions with different current average climates are used to derive implicitly farmers' adaptive responses to hypothesized future climate changes) is briefly reviewed. It is noted that this procedure in which space and time are substituted, amounts to ergodic economics. Such cross-sectional analyses are static, and thus neglect the dynamics of both climate and societal evolution. Furthermore, such static methods usually consider only a single measure of change (local mean annual temperature), rather than higher moments like climatic variability, diurnal temperature range, etc.

Schneider, SH; Easterling, WE; Mearns, LO

Adaptation: Sensitivity to natural variability, agent assumptions and dynamic climate changes

Climatic Change

https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005657421149

It has been reported that flood events in Namibia and Zambia will increase, due to the variability and changes in the climate, thus increasing the number of people that are exposed to flooding disasters. This exposure will negatively impact the livelihoods of rural households if no interventions are implemented to strengthen the coping and adaptive capacity of the affected local population against flooding. The purpose of this case study was to determine the adaptation strategies that are adopted by rural households to floods in the eastern part of the Zambezi Region in Namibia and the Mwandi District in Zambia. The study further examined how socio-economic factors influence the choice of different adaptation strategies. The adaptation strategies were categorised into two groups, namely, short-term coping strategies and long-term adaptation strategies. Six focus group meetings were held and a questionnaire survey of 207 randomly-sampled households was conducted in the flood-prone areas of the study. In Namibia, the results indicated that the majority (96%) of the households coped with floods by gardening and sold poles, 74% sold firewood, 61% collected wild food and 59% received food aid during floods events. In Zambia, the major coping strategies included the sale of reeds and thatching grass (53%), firewood sales (51%), charcoal production and sales (51%) and wild food collection for sale (50%). With regard to the long-term adaptation strategies, the households in Namibia learnt to live with the floods; they engaged in the mafisa cattle trade (86%), they harvested the flood water (68%), changed the planting dates (63%), prayed (55%) and practiced conservation agriculture (54%) and fish farming (53%). In Zambia, the main long-term adaptation strategies were conservation agriculture (91%), the acquisition of preparedness skills (66%), the harvesting of flood water (63%), prayer (60%), and the practice of flood-proofing (52%). A multiple linear regression analysis showed that the age, the land size, the length of stay in the flood plain, the duration of the floods, as well as their marital status, significantly influenced their choice of long-term adaptation strategies.

Mabuku, MP; Senzanje, A; Mudhara, M; Jewitt, GPW; Mulwafu, WO

Strategies for coping and adapting to flooding and their determinants: A comparative study of cases from Namibia and Zambia

Physics And Chemistry Of The Earth

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2018.12.009

Floods, natural disasters that occur worldwide, have become more and more frequent in recent decades. Flooding is often unavoidable and unexpected; however, it can be controlled through appropriate measures to minimize losses and damage. Flood hazard risk assessment, a holistic approach that involves numerous evaluation indices in river catchments, is an increasingly effective and sustainable practice, but the complicated, non-linear relationship between evaluation indices and risk levels pose a significant challenge to accurate assessment. An intelligent learning machine called random forest (RF) can run efficiently on large databases and provide estimates regarding the importance of specific variables in the classification. This lends RF a considerable advantage in solving the non-linear problems inherent to risk assessment, as well as estimating the importance degree of each index. As such, in this study, an assessment model based on RF was adopted to evaluate regional flood hazard risk. The proposed flood hazard risk assessment method was implemented in Dongjiang River Basin, China. Eleven risk indices were selected and five thousand samples were created for training and testing. The support vector machine (SVM) was used for risk assessment as a comparison, as well as an analysis of index importance degree. Results show that (I) both the training and testing error rate of RF can be reduced by increasing the sample size and the number of classification trees, (2) the higher and highest-risk zones occupy approximately 19.09% of the total, and are primarily located in Baoan, Longgang, Huiyang, Huidong, the western area of Boluo, and the southern part of Dongguang, and (3) the indices maximum three-day precipitation (M3PD), runoff depth (RD), typhoon frequency (TF), digital elevation model (DEM), and topographic wetness index (TWI) are the top five most important out of the eleven risk indices, occupying 71.11% of the total risk; but normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), stream power index (SPI), soil texture (ST), distance to the river (DR), slope (SL), and land use pattern (LUP) indices are less consequential, at only 28.89%. This study shows the potential to provide a novel and highly successful approach to flood hazard risk assessment. Evaluation results provide a reference for flood risk management, prevention, and reduction of natural disasters in the study basin.

Wang, ZL; Lai, CG; Chen, XH; Yang, B; Zhao, SW; Bai, XY

Flood hazard risk assessment model based on random forest

Journal Of Hydrology

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.06.008

Purpose Tropical storms Urduja and Vinta battered the Philippines in December 2017. Despite advances in disaster risk reduction efforts of the country, the twin December storms caused numerous deaths in the Visayas and Mindanao regions. Analysis of these events shows that alerts raised during the Pre-Disaster Risk Assessment (PDRA) for both storms were largely ineffective because they were too broad and general calling for forced evacuations in too many provinces. Repeated multiple and general warnings that usually do not end up in floods or landslides, desensitize people and result in the cry-wolf effect where communities do not respond with urgency when needed. It was unlike the previous execution of PDRA from 2014 to early 2017 by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), which averted mass loss of lives in many severely impacted areas because of hazard-specific, area-focused and time-bound warnings. PDRA must reinstate specific calls, where mayors of communities are informed by phone hours in advance of imminent danger to prompt and ensure immediate action. Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction information using probabilistic (multi-scenario) hazard maps is also necessary for an effective early warning system to elicit appropriate response from the community. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach Methods of early warning through the PDRA of the National Disaster Mitigation and Management Council (NDRRMC) of the Philippines during tropical storm Urduja and Typhoon Vinta were assessed in this study and compared to the previous PDRA system from 2014 to early 2017. Findings It was found out that the numerous casualties were due to inadequate warning issued during the approach of the tropical cyclones. During an impending hazard, warnings must be accurate, reliable, understandable and timely. Despite the availability of maps that identified safe zones for different communities, warnings raised during the PDRA for both tropical cyclones were deemed too general calling for evacuations of whole provinces. As such, not all communities were evacuated in a timely manner because of failure in the key elements of an effective early warning system. Originality/value To avoid future disasters from happening, it is recommended that the PDRA reinstate its hazards-specific, area-focused and time-bound warnings.

Lagmay, M; Racoma, BA

Lessons from tropical storms Urduja and Vinta disasters in the Philippines

Disaster Prevention And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/DPM-03-2018-0077

Purpose The coastal zone of Bangladesh that is in the front line of the battle against climate change faced over 200 natural disasters in the past 40 years, and most of the disasters were cyclones. The inevitable cyclone shelter (CS), the backbone of disaster management (DM), provides short-term safety for the disaster victims in Bangladesh. This study aims to explore the community-based limitations and sustainable development features of CSs including the gender issues. Design/methodology/approach A questionnaire survey was carried out among 230 community people to identify the requirements and sustainable development features of CSs. A field visit was carried out in 23 CSs to capture its existing facilities. Key informant interviews were conducted in the office of Upazila Engineers to strengthen survey data. Findings This research found that the plan of CSs, quality of construction, capacity, facilities, entrance and exit, space allocation, management and policy were not capable enough to fulfill the needs and requirements of the community people. Due to lack of separate facilities, women and girls avoided shelters for fear of sexual and mental harassment in CSs, as they had experiences in the earlier events of cyclones. Insufficient facilities discourage community from using the shelters. Research limitations/implications Women and girls were shy to share their experience in CSs. The historical data were limited in the study area. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this research presents the actual community-based outcome. During CCRIP training program, the authors met 3,625 community people, and participatory discussions were made to explore the participants' experiences and perceptions about the sustainable development of CSs. Practical implications South-Asian coastal zones are prone to natural, quasi-natural hazard and disasters, where shelters are required for protecting lives of community people during such disasters such as cyclones, storm surges, and floods. Therefore, this study can help in making sustainable development decisions in terms of constructing shelters in disaster-prone countries like Bangladesh. Social implications The outcomes of this investigation are useful for uplifting psychosocial status to protect lives during disasters such as cyclones, storm surges and floods and increase accessibility to shelters, and users will consider CSs as a social asset. In turn, the acceptability of CSs into community level are expected to be increased for combating against cyclones, storm surges, and floods.

Shahin, M; Billah, M; Islam, MM; Parvez, A; Zaman, AKMM

Cyclone shelters need sustainable development

International Journal Of Disaster Resilience In The Built Environment

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDRBE-12-2015-0061

Agricultural systems are increasingly vulnerable to the effects of extreme climate events. Yet strategies to reduce risk and vulnerability have not been greatly explored. Here, we examine the vulnerability of coffee agroforestry systems varying in management intensity (e.g. land use) and topographic features to disturbance related to Hurricane Stan in Chiapas, Mexico-a hurricane categorized by heavy rains and mild winds. An approximately 50 km(2) area was chosen within a coffee-growing region where data were collected on a variety of topographic and landscape features (aspect, slope, elevation, distance to river) and vegetation characteristics (canopy cover, vegetation structure, tree density) as predictive factors of vegetation, economic, and landslide damage at three distinct spatial scales. At the plot level, we collected vegetation data later compiled into a vegetation complexity index. At the farm level, we collected data to understand the effect of the hurricane on economic damage and farm area affected by landslides. We also recorded number and volume of roadside landslides as a measure of post-hurricane disturbance. We then conducted a geo-spatial analysis to determine which factors contribute most to landslide occurrence at landscape scales. We found no effect of coffee management on vegetation damage or on economic losses at the plot or farm scale. At the farm scale, increasing management intensity (i.e. reduction in vegetation complexity) correlated with increased proportion of farm area affected by landslides (P = 0.014). Additionally, reduction in vegetation complexity was correlated with increased number (P = 0.0224) and volume (P = 0.062) of roadside landslides at the landscape level. Topographic and landscape features, such as distance to river (P = 0.004) and wind exposure/aspect (P = 0.044) strongly influenced landslide frequency at the landscape scale. Forest proximity and proportion of forest cover did not significantly influence the frequency or extent of landslide damage. We created hazard maps using the vegetation complexity index, distance to river, and wind exposure as the heaviest weighted factors to assess areas of the terrain with the greatest vulnerability. These maps present a practical result of this study, and offer a template in which land management policy can develop to lower regional vulnerability to landslide risk.

Philpott, SM; Lin, BB; Jha, S; Brines, SJ

A multi-scale assessment of hurricane impacts on agricultural landscapes based on land use and topographic features

Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2008.04.016

In the past few years, the number and intensity of natural disasters has increased significantly. In particular, the Latin American countries have been seriously affected given their high degree of vulnerability. Such natural events cause not only human losses, but also put in risk the sustainability of efforts being implemented for the economic development of emerging countries, destabilizing countries' public finances and debt management. This is why it is necessary to have effective natural disaster risk management strategies and financing mechanisms. Within these financial strategies we can find: fiscal resources, contingent credit lines, catastrophe bonds and insurance/derivatives. The weather derivative market at the global level has been growing in the past decade, achieving a total of US$ 19.2 billions in 2007. However, such market in Latin America is still nascent. Even with significant evidence showing that the impacts of natural disasters on public finances is greatly reduced in countries with a higher level of development of insurance and financial systems, many countries in Latin America continue to absorb most of these risks. This is mainly explained by the short political cycles (4 to 6 presidential years), which provides a disincentive to undertake investments in prevention that would yield benefits beyond their political term, while in the short term they can invest in responding to natural disaster (ex-post) that it is anyway seen as an exogenous event not under the control of politicians. Furthermore, the role of the public sector in using financial risk transfer instruments is not only relevant for its impact in the risk adaptation and response, but also for the natural disaster risk and climate change agenda. Insurance Premium prices send signals to the market about the changes in risk provides of activities and/or geographic regions, putting pressure in various market agents to invest (or not) in disaster prevention/mitigation. To summarize, the implementation of a financial system that includes financial weather hedges is necessary to: (i) cover the urgent needs right after a natural disaster; and (ii) as a mechanism to deepen (and attract) the financial weather derivative/insurance market to be used by private sector, national and subnational governments, etc. Finally, in order to put in place such a system, the following are some necessary conditions: (i) have access to capital markets and financial instruments, such as derivatives and insurance; (ii) have access to information and probabilistic analysis about weather events

Arias, D

Management of Weather and Ecosystem Risks in Latin America: the New Financial Instruments of Transfer

Revista Del Clad Reforma Y Democracia

An extensive narrative review approach is adopted to present existing information on the consumptive and non-consumptive uses and their related issues, such as floods and droughts, climate and the environment in Ghana. Total annual rainfall in the country ranges between 800 mm/y (south-east coat) and 2,000 mm/y (south-west coast) with a bimodal and mono-modal patterns in the south and north, respectively. Annual total runoff from the 3 river systems (the Volta river system, the South-western river system and the Coastal river system) in Ghana is estimated at 40 billion m(3) out of about 53 billion renewable freshwater resources. Groundwater yields ranges from 6 m(3)/h in the Volta basin sedimentary formations to 180 m(3)/h in the limestone formations. It is estimated that the total water withdrawal as a percentage of total renewable water resources is about 2%. At an average per capita consumption of water of 50 l/p/d, estimated daily water demand for the 2021 population of 31 million people stands at about 566 million m(3)/y. Current water supply systems are overstretched and it is further estimated that about US $ 240 million is required per year as capital expenditure in urban and rural water supply. Moreover, climate change is projected to increase the scarcity of water in future. Wastewater generated through domestic and industrial uses including storm water in urban Ghana is estimated at about 760 million m(3)/y. Ghana's irrigation potential to reduce climate change impact on agriculture is put at between 0.36 and 2.9 million ha, accounting for about 66.4% of the consumptive water withdrawal. Estimated water demand for cattle, sheep and goats in 2010 was put at about 22 million m(3)/y. Other services obtained from surface water are the provision of fish (the Volta Lake is estimated to contributes to 16% of total catch in Ghana); hydropower generation accounting for about 40% of total power installed capacity (Akosombo = 1,020 MW, Kpong = 160 MW, and Bui = 404 MW); water transportation (notably on the Volta Lake); tourist attractions.

Agodzo, SK; Bessah, E; Nyatuame, M

A review of the water resources of Ghana in a changing climate and anthropogenic stresses

Frontiers In Water

https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2022.973825

Purpose. The paper's purpose is to analyze and predict the food security index in Ukraine and to estimate the risk level of its reduction. Methodology / approach. The following models are used for forecasting: the Holt's twoparameter model - to forecast the dynamics of caloric content of the daily diet and integral food security index; the ARIMA model - for modeling the food economic affordability. The autocorrelation function structure analysis is used to determine the adequacy of the models. The article discusses the procedure of assessing food security risk based on the properties of the econometric forecast error. The annual data of Ukraine were used for assessing the forecasts for the time interval between 1995 and 2018. Results. The paper presents the results of predicting the food security index in the context of macroeconomic instability. The trend (deterministic) and random components for the level of calorie consumption are revealed. The forecast of food availability is presented. The forecast estimates of the Food Security Index of Ukraine for the period up to 2022 are considered. The assessment of price elasticities, household incomes and inflation for basic food products is made. As a result of assessing the level of macroeconomic instability, the structural elements of food security for Ukraine were identified. The article assesses the dynamics of changes in consumption of certain commodity items of foodstuff as components of food security. There is a creation of an alternative methodology for forecasting individual economic indices in the absence of stable trends in the economy of the country based on the use of econometric analysis proposed in the research. It substantiates the use of multistep methods of forecasting economic indices. It is proved that the integrated forecast of the food security index of Ukraine is in satisfactory state and shows a slight upward trend during the period 2020-2022, but the risks of a decline in the integral index are somewhere beyond satisfactory. Originality / scientific novelty. The results of the individual food security indices forecast, and the integral Food Security Index of Ukraine analysis it is possible to state a satisfactory condition that is unlikely to change in the near future. The alternative forecasting method for individual economic parameters in conditions of the unstable national economy trends is firstly proposed. Practical value / implications. The reported forecast values indicate a decrease in the adequacy of consumption for most foodstuffs. This is most pronounced for the consumption of products of animal origin, which are far from the norm.

Voronenko, I; Skrypnyk, A; Klymenko, N; Zherlitsyn, D; Starychenko, Y

FOOD SECURITY RISK IN UKRAINE: ASSESSMENT AND FORECAST

Agricultural And Resource Economics-International Scientific E-Journal

Climate-resilient agriculture (CRA) is among the top policy priorities for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in their food, agriculture, and forestry sectors. However, the strategies that have been adopted to date have failed to produce positive changes or alter climate change trajectories. Scientific evidence is crucial for evidence-based policy making in this arena and elsewhere. We undertake a scoping review to explore what is known from the existing scientific literature about the policy recommendations for CRA in ASEAN. We follow the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines for new systematic reviews. Furthermore, we conduct a content analysis to classify the policy recommendations into eight CRA policy categories and to investigate how the policies identified in the reviewed articles reinforce the climate resilience capacities (CRC) needed for CRA. The synthesis review is based on 47 papers. This research contributes to climate resilience literature, and explains how the results of this study could be applied in policy analysis to build CRC within the agricultural sector. The knowledge generated by this study can support policy design, and therefore support the building of an enabling environment for CRA for ASEAN and elsewhere. Key policy insightsScientific literature on CRA typically recommends policies that support communication and knowledge sharing and advance research and technology development, often in combination with risk management- and/or environmental/climate support.There is insufficient evidence on actual policies enabling CRA. This result may also reflect a lack of research on some of the identified CRA policy categories, such as agricultural production support, investment support, infrastructural support, land use regulation and certification.This synthesis review identifies literature addressing policy capacity to achieve CRA goals. Adaptability and transformability are key dimensions of policy capacity enabling responsive actions to climate change, mainly via social learning, in-depth learning and research and technology development. Literature pays little attention to anticipation and robustness, facilitating proactive ex-ante initiatives and coping for climate change; we argue that these dimensions of capacity merit further research.This synthesis demonstrates key gaps in research and understanding of CRA and related policies targeting capacity building, followed by a need to raise awareness of the importance of such policies. It also points to the need to enable preparation for climate-related crisis planning, through use of anticipatory policies and tools, such as climate predictions to inform planning of robust prevention measures.

Manevska-Tasevska, G; Duangbootsee, U; Bimbilovski, I; Thathong, P; Ha, TM

A systematic scoping review and content analysis of policy recommendations for climate-resilient agriculture

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2023.2232334

Several cities are exceptionally vulnerable to flood impacts due to increasing urbanization, population growth, and climate change. Quantifying flood vulnerability is useful for identifying the system's weakness, monitoring its evolution, and supporting targeted flood risk adaptation policies. One of the vital aims of assessing urban flood vulnerability is to create an understandable link between flood vulnerability conceptual theories and the daily decision-making process through an easily accessible tool. Although several studies have described the development of an integrated flood vulnerability index (FVI) combining physical, social, and economic dimensions in urban areas, this index has not been assessed in developing countries. Therefore, this study focuses on an integrated indicator-based approach to develop an urban FVI based on exposure, susceptibility, and resilience to urban flooding at the neighbourhood scale. To evaluate the flood vulnerability of the population, we used the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment in Europe (MOVE) framework. Accordingly, the vulnerability indices cover exposure, susceptibility and resilience aspects. The index is applied to Alexandria, one of the most important coastal cities of Egypt, which is highly vulnerable due to its dense population, low adaptive capacity, flat topography, and exposure to various water-related disasters, such as cyclones, storm surges, bank erosion, sea-level rise, tidal floods, and frequent urban floods. In this study, we use inductive principal component analysis (PCA) to develop a composite indicator for the FVI and to evaluate the vulnerability of 101 census administrative units (sheyakhahs) in Alexandria. We apply the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) test and Bartlett's test of sphericity to assess sample adequacy and perform data standardization for all indicators. Furthermore, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is adopted for simplicity and comparison with the PCA results to assess their robustness. We clustered 58 and 13 flood vulnerability-related indicators into three major dimensions, i.e., physical, social, and economic, through PCA and the AHP, respectively. Official collected data are analysed using combined methods using advanced statistical analysis (SPSS) software and a geographic information system (GIS). The findings highlight the variability in flood vulnerability across highly urbanized and suburban areas. Based on the PCA, 38 indicators were defined as the most comprehensive flood vulnerability assessment (FVA) used in Egyptian cities.

Abdrabo, KI; Kantoush, SA; Esmaiel, A; Saber, M; Sumi, T; Almamari, M; Elboshy, B; Ghoniem, S

An integrated indicator-based approach for constructing an urban flood vulnerability index as an urban decision-making tool using the PCA and AHP techniques: A case study of Alexandria, Egypt

Urban Climate

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101426

The article describes and reflects upon how multi-level governance and planning in Sweden have been affected by and reacted upon three pending major challenges confronting humanity, namely climate change, migration and the Covid-19 pandemic. These 'crises' are broadly considered 'existential threats' in need of 'securitisation'. Causes and adequate reactions are contested, and there are no given solutions how to securitise the perceived threats, neither one by one, no less together. Government securitisation strategies are challenged by counter-securitisation demands, and plaguing vulnerable groups in society by in-securitising predicaments. Taking Sweden as an example the article applies an analytical approach drawing upon strands of securitisation, governance and planning theory. Targeting policy responses to the three perceived crises the intricate relations between government levels, responsibilities, capacities, and actions are scrutinized, including a focus upon the role of planning. Overriding research questions are: How has the governance and planning system - central, regional and local governments -in Sweden responded to the challenges of climate change, migration and Covid-19? What threats were identified? What solutions were proposed? What consequences could be traced? What prospects wait around the corner? Comparing crucial aspects of the crises' anatomies the article adds to the understanding of the way multilevel, cross-sectional, hybrid governance and planning respond to concurrent crises, thereby also offering clues for action in other geopolitical contexts. The article mainly draws upon recent and ongoing research on manifestations of three cases in the Swedish context. Applying a pragmatic, method-ological approach combining elements of securitisation, governance and planning theories with Carol Lee Bac-chi's 'What is the problem represented to be' and a touch of interpretive/narrative theory, the study reveals distinct differences between the anatomies of the three crises and their handling. Urgency, extension, state of knowledge/epistemology, governance and planning make different imprints on crises management. Sweden's long-term climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies imply slow, micro-steps forward based on a combination of social-liberal, 'circular' and a touch of 'green growth' economies.

Elander, I; Granberg, M; Montin, S

Governance and planning in a 'perfect storm': Securitising climate change, migration and Covid-19 in Sweden

Progress In Planning

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.progress.2021.100634

The construction of reservoirs has led to difficult livelihood transitions of resettled households after relocation and resettlement, resulting in a series of socioeconomic problems. How to scientifically integrate regional resource advantages and improve the livelihood resilience of resettled households has become an important problem to be solved to prevent and resolve social equity and justice risks and sustainable livelihood development. Taking Xiangjiaba Hydropower Station (Yunnan Reservoir area) as an example, the evaluation index system was constructed from the three dimensions of buffer capacity, self-organization capacity and learning capacity, the gray correlation degree method was used to evaluate index system, and the clustering method was selected to screen the indices that have a great impact on livelihood resilience. On this basis, the comprehensive index method was used to calculate the livelihood resilience, and the contribution degree model was used to identify the main contribution factors of livelihood resilience and to explore the path of livelihood construction to improve the livelihood resilience of resettled households. The results showed that (1) the level of livelihood resilience of resettled households was not high as a whole, in which the self-organization capacity was the strongest, the buffer capacity was the second strongest, and the learning capacity was the weakest; (2) there were differences in the livelihood resilience of resettled households who choose different livelihood modes. Among them, buffer capacity, learning capacity and livelihood resilience were characterized by wage operation type > part-time balanced type > agricultural operation type > subsidy dependent type, while self-organization capacity was characterized by agricultural operation type > part-time balanced type > wage operation type > subsidy dependent type. (3) The main contribution factors of the livelihood resilience of resettled households who choose different livelihood modes are similar. The number of laborers, participation in social organizations, skills training opportunities and 11 other main indices promote the formation and development of livelihood resilience from different dimensions. (4) The livelihood of resettled households should follow the construction path of identifying transition capacity, clarifying resource advantages, strengthening livelihood support, and promoting livelihood reorganization to promote the comprehensive improvement of livelihood resilience, ultimately achieving sustainable livelihood and high-level welfare.

Chen, SJ; Wu, J; Zhou, KX; Li, R

Livelihood resilience and livelihood construction path of China's rural reservoir resettled households in the energy transition

Frontiers In Sustainable Food Systems

https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2022.1046761

Due to global warming, humanity has to face irreversible effects regarding social, environmental, and economic systems. Climate change and its impacts fundamentally affect the transition to sustainable development. Therefore beside sustainability, resilience is getting more and more popular in urban research. Despite the academic relevance, it is barely understood how these paradigms affect each other, particularly in practice. People, economic functions and related environmental encumbrances are densified in cities that are main contributors of global warming and related extreme weather events. Thus, urban areas play a crucial role in the adaptation to changing conditions. This study attempts to identify how the core spatial planning actions limit sustainability and resilience at the micro-level. The study area is the 17th District of Budapest, the capital of Hungary, but the used method can be adapted to other settlements based on local circumstances. Aspects of strong sustainability, adaptation to climate change, and lock-in are taken into account in three different but associated ex-ante surveys. Direct and indirect effects are deeply considered in the presented framework as part of a complex impact assessment. The elaborated method eases the identification of trade-offs, synergies, and potential lock-ins among the key projects at the design stage; hence it can be a beneficial ex-ante tool for decision-makers. The presented analysis can be used universally; however, the results depend significantly on local conditions, purposes, and the defined adaptation aspects. The applied methodology provides decision-making in urban development with a novel input, which was not or barely considered before, despite the fact that adaptation to climate change as a horizontal part of sustainable development is crucial. it is shown that these aspects can stay hidden in a comprehensive sustainability assessment. The identified adverse effects should not automatically mean the cancellation of the project. On the contrary, they can open decision-makers' and planners' eyes to potential issues, which risk long-term transition to sustainability. Besides, they indicate where more conscious and profound planning and implementing is required. In sum, the elaborated method is capable of a complex ex-ante impact assessment of urban planning projects. It can unveil previously hidden aspects of sustainability and potential path dependencies thus, it can be a useful tool for decision-makers and urban planners. After a short introduction, an academic review sums up linkages between the paradigms of sustainability and resilience.

Buzási, A; Csizovszky, A

Sustainability and climate adaptation in urban development - lock-in analysis in Budapest XVII. district

Ter Es Tarsadalom

https://doi.org/10.17649/TET.35.1.3291

Decisions on long-lived flood risk management (FRM) investments are complex because the future is uncertain. Flexibility and robustness can be used to deal with future uncertainty. Real options analysis (ROA) provides a welfare-economics framework to design and evaluate robust and flexible FRM strategies under risk or uncertainty. Although its potential benefits are large, ROA is hardly used in todays' FRM practice. In this paper, we investigate benefits and limitations of a ROA, by applying it to a realistic FRM case study for an entire river branch. We illustrate how ROA identifies optimal short-term investments and values future options. We develop robust dike investment strategies and value the flexibility offered by additional room for the river measures. We benchmark the results of ROA against those of a standard cost-benefit analysis and show ROA's potential policy implications. The ROA for a realistic case requires a high level of geographical detail, a large ensemble of scenarios, and the inclusion of stakeholders' preferences. We found several limitations of applying the ROA. It is complex. In particular, relevant sources of uncertainty need to be recognized, quantified, integrated, and discretized in scenarios, requiring subjective choices and expert judgment. Decision trees have to be generated and stakeholders' preferences have to be translated into decision rules. On basis of this study, we give general recommendations to use high discharge scenarios for the design of measures with high fixed costs and few alternatives. Lower scenarios may be used when alternatives offer future flexibility. Plain Language Summary Worldwide, large amounts of money are needed to protect growing populations against increasing flood risks. Decisions on flood risk management measures are often difficult because the future is uncertain, resulting in possible over- or underinvestments. Integrating flexibility or robustness in the decisions are two different ways to deal with this. Real options analysis (ROA) can help to design and evaluate robust and flexible strategies but is hardly used. We examine benefits and limitations by applying ROA to a realistic case study in the Netherlands. We develop robust dike investment strategies and value the flexibility offered by room for the river measures. The ROA for the realistic case study needs a high level of geographical detail, a large number of future scenarios, and the inclusion of stakeholders' preferences. Limitations are the complexity, the recognition and quantification of uncertainty, and the mapping of possible decisions in time.

Kind, JM; Baayen, JH; Botzen, WJW

Benefits and Limitations of Real Options Analysis for the Practice of River Flood Risk Management

Water Resources Research

https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR022402

Purpose The purpose of this study is to assess how intergovernmental panel on climate change's (IPCC's) sixth assessment report of Working Group I (WGI), a Summary for Policymakers (SPM), has evaluated the current climate change situation. The author uses the qualitative content analysis (QCA) method (i.e. summative content analysis [SCA]) to identify critical points of the SPM. Design/methodology/approach To better understand the WGI report and its SPM, the author uses the thematic analysis, often called the QCA method. This study takes more steps and uses one of the main qualitative content analysis approaches (i.e. SCA). Therefore, QCA (SCA) can help the author count the occurrence of certain words using computer-assisted qualitative data analysis software that quantifies the words in the data. This process helps the author to understand codes and patterns (e.g. the concept in the results section). Findings Interestingly, the AR6 says more about adaptation for policy makers in sections C (Climate information for risk assessment) and D (Mitigation of future climate change) than in sections A and D. Finally, this study concludes that the IPCC WGI SPM has addressed evidence on global climate change policymaking for SPMa, SPMd (mitigation-based strategies and mitigation policy [MP]) and SPMb, SPMc (adaptation policy and adaptation-based strategy). Research limitations/implications First, this study refers only to the contribution of WGI, a SPM. The findings of this study do not necessarily provide a full understanding of what the AR6 WGI SPM says about climate change. It points out that the QDA Miner software and Voyant tool do not include all variables and examples where mitigation and adaptation-based strategies are discussed. The guidance for coding is based on the approved version of IPCC AR6 WGI SPM. The final limitation is that the relatedness of key words (e.g. confidence, high and warming) is sometimes ambiguous; even experts may disagree on how the words are linked to form a concept. Thus, this method works at the keyword level. A more intelligent method would use more meaningful information than keywords. Originality/value This study used qualitative data analysis (SCA) to explore what was said about climate change in four sections of the IPCC

Asadnabizadeh, M

Critical findings of the sixth assessment report (AR6) of working Group I of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) for global climate change policymaking a summary for policymakers (SPM) analysis

International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-04-2022-0049

A survey of local governments participating in two urban climate change programs is presented to determine the mechanisms used to reach emissions reduction goals and the motivations for participation. Results support previous research that shows a preference for policies that rely on changes in individual behavior, while also providing new insights into how mitigation responsibilities are distributed among the public and private sector and the relative importance of scientific consensus, economic incentives, and federal inaction on local government justification for climate-related policies. The article concludes with a discussion of urban climate governance as part of a wider system of neoliberal climate governance.

Rice, JL

Public Targets, Private Choices: Urban Climate Governance in the Pacific Northwest

Professional Geographer

https://doi.org/10.1080/00330124.2013.787011

Purpose This paper aims to build a theoretical model of the impact of farmers' adoption behavior of soil and water conservation measures on the agricultural output to analyze the impact of farmers' adoption behavior of soil and water conservation measures on agricultural output. Design/methodology/approach Based on the field survey data of 808 farmers households in three provinces (regions) of the Loess Plateau, this paper using the endogenous switching regression model to analyze the effect of farmers' adoption behavior of soil and water conservation measures on agricultural output. Findings Soil erosion has a significant negative impact on agricultural output, and soil erosion has a significant positive impact on farmers' adoption of soil and water conservation measures. Farmers adopt soil and water conservation measures such as engineering measures, biological measures and tillage measures to cope with soil erosion, which can increase agricultural output. Based on the counterfactual hypothesis, if farmers who adopt soil and water conservation measures do not adopt the corresponding soil and water conservation measures, their average output per ha output will decrease by 2.01%. Then, if farmers who do not adopt soil and water conservation measures adopt the corresponding soil and water conservation measures, their average output per ha output will increase by 12.12%. Government support and cultivated land area have a significant positive impact on farmers' adoption behavior of soil and water conservation measures. Research limitations/implications The research limitation is the lack of panel data. Practical implications Soil erosion has a significant negative impact on agricultural output, and soil erosion has a significant positive impact on farmers' adoption of soil and water conservation measures. Farmers adopt soil and water conservation measures such as engineering measures, biological measures and tillage measures to cope with soil erosion, which can increase agricultural output. Social implications The conclusion provides a reliable empirical basis for the government to formulate and implement relevant policies. Originality/value The contributions of this paper are as follows: the adoption behavior of soil and water conservation measures and agricultural output are included into the same analytical framework for empirical analysis, revealing the influencing factors of farmers' adoption behavior of soil and water conservation measures and their output effects, enriching existing research. Using endogenous switching regression model and introducing instrumental variables to overcome the endogenous problem between the adoption behavior of soil and water conservation measures and agricultural output, and to analyze the influencing factors of farmers' adoption behavior of soil and water conservation measures and its impact on agricultural output.

Huang, XH; Lu, Q; Yang, F

The effects of farmers' adoption behavior of soil and water conservation measures on agricultural output

International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-02-2020-0014

Purpose - This paper aims to identify the dynamic capabilities that foster organizational resilience towards sustainability. Design/methodology/approach - The study is a qualitative multi-case study with Brazilian manufacturers of different industries that provides an in-depth exploration of underlying dimensions towards resilience for sustainability. Findings - The results indicate that to develop organizational resilience towards sustainability, both in theory and in practical terms, the actions required are long-term plans, regular meetings, benchmarking, communication between areas and distinct hierarchies, partnerships and eco-efficient actions. Regarding human aspects, the leader's behaviour and shared culture are the means to encourage, educate and exemplify sustainability for all in the organization. Research limitations/implications - The study has limitations in the form of a small sample size. The implications indicate a relationship between resilience and dynamic capability for sustainability. In other words, resilience develops organizational, human and technological capabilities for sustainability. Such results can improve the organizational strategy constructionmethods towards sustainability development. Practical implications - The study has two practical implications for companies to continue working for sustainability. The first practical implication is the need to work the processes that are aimed at the exchange of information both internally and externally to the organization. It has been seen in managers' speeches that creating ways to listen to employee suggestions could make important resource-saving discoveries and release waste. Another important source of information for improvement of operations is to listen to civil associations and industry and non-governmental organizations, as well as participate in events, lectures and discussion forums. The second practical implication is the need to work with the human side of the organization; sustainability needs to be a part of the worker's daily life, and it needs to become common to them of the need to reflect on how to improve sustainability of processes for which they are responsible. To achieve this goal, companies need to work the pillar of cohesion resilience, emphasizing the behaviour of leaders ( role models) and organizational culture. Social implications - The comparative case analysis shows some practices that are able to induce good environment and provide social and organizational benefits, namely, long-term plans, regular meetings, benchmarking, communication between areas and distinct hierarchies, partnerships, eco-efficient actions, behaviour of leaders and shared culture among members of the organization. These practices are the means to encourage, educate and exemplify sustainability for all in the organization.

Souza, AAA; Alves, MFR; Macini, N; Cezarino, LO; Liboni, LB

Resilience for sustainability as an eco-capability

International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-09-2016-0144

Food insecurity continues to be prevalent in parts of Africa. In December 2015, there were approximately 21.6 million food insecure people in the Horn and East Africa. Climate change is likely to exacerbate current volatility of agricultural production and lead to further food insecurity. Whilst the academic literature has acknowledged the complexity of food insecurity and systems, it is not clear to what extent this has been translated into practice. We argue that there is a tendency to explain complex failures of food systems as droughts', with insufficient attention paid to other drivers. We analyse humanitarian documents and climate outlook statements in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia and assess how these are reflected in the humanitarian responses to food insecurity in the region by analysing the financing of humanitarian operations. Our findings indicate that the continued evolution in understanding the complex causes of food insecurity and attempts to move away from emergency relief to a more sophisticated approach has not translated into an observable change in humanitarian responses. The reasons behind this persistence of short-term relief, which is being justified with reference to climatic factors, mainly drought, would warrant further research into the decision-making process that triggers humanitarian responses.

Sandstrom, S; Juhola, S

Continue to blame it on the rain? Conceptualization of drought and failure of food systems in the Greater Horn of Africa

Environmental Hazards-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2016.1229656

We present here and in the companion papers an analysis of sustainability in the Middle Rio Grande region of the U.S.-Mexico border and propose an interdisciplinary research agenda focused on the coupled human and natural dimensions of water resources sustainability in the face of climate and social change in an international border region. Key threats to water sustainability in the Middle Rio Grande River region include: (1) increasing salinization of surface and ground water, (2) increasing water demand from a growing population in the El Paso/Ciudad Juarez area on top of an already high base demand from irrigated agriculture, (3) water quality impacts from agricultural, municipal, and industrial discharges to the river, (4) changing regional climate that portends increased frequency and intensity of droughts interspersed with more intensive rainfall and flooding events, and (5) disparate water planning and management systems between different states in the U. S. and between the U. S. and Mexico. In addition to these challenges, there is an increasing demand from a significant regional population who is (and has been historically) underserved in terms of access to affordable potable water. To address these challenges to water resources sustainability, we have focused on: (1) the determinants of resilience and transformability in an ecological/social setting on an international border and how they can be measured and predicted; and (2) the drivers of change ... what are they (climate, social, etc.) and how are they impacting the coupled human and natural dimensions of water sustainability on the border? To tackle these challenges, we propose a research agenda based on a complex systems approach that focuses on the linkages and feedbacks of the natural, built/managed, and social dimensions of the surface and groundwater budget of the region. The approach that we propose incorporates elements of systems analysis, complexity science, and the use of modeling tools such as scenario planning and back-casting to link the quantitative with the qualitative. This approach is unique for our region, as are our bi-national focus and our conceptualization of water capital''. In particular, the concept of water capital provides the basis for a new interdisciplinary paradigm that integrates social, economic, and natural sectors within a systems framework in order to understand and characterize water resources sustainability.

Hargrove, WL; Borrok, DM; Heyman, JM; Tweedie, CW; Ferregut, C

Water, climate, and social change in a fragile landscape

Ecosphere

https://doi.org/10.1890/ES12-00269.1

This study examines the vulnerability, adaptation, and resilience of urban poor households living in the riverine communities of the three flood prone areas in Metro Manila, namely, (1) Pasig-Marikina River basin, (2) West Mangahan, and (3) the KAMANAVA area (Kalookan, Malabon, Navotas, Valenzuela). Based on a survey of 300 urban poor households in 14 communities located in these flood basins, the study found that the environmental-ecological vulnerability of the low-lying flood prone areas interacts strongly with the social vulnerability of urban poor households, highlighting the effects of climate related changes (sea level rise, increased typhoons, intensity of monsoon rains, floods and tidal/storm surges) on this vulnerable population. Most of the households have low-incomes, live in slum/squatter settlements and do not have adequate access to potable water, electricity, health, sewage and sanitation facilities. About two-thirds of them suffered losses (e. g., income, work, health/sickness, household appliances/things, housing damage) from typhoons, floods, and tidal/storm surges but only a small portion of them obtained help from formal institutions (e. g., local government units or LGUs, charitable agencies) and informal support networks (relatives/neighbors/friends). Of these, a third of these households appeared more vulnerable and consistently incurred higher losses (e. g., income and workdays) and intense inconveniences (e. g., water source buried by floods, toilets blocked and overflowed with wastes/large worms to their floors) compared to their neighbors. Both urban poor households and their local governments have formulated adaptation strategies in response to the increasing effects of climate change. Few of the local governments built river barriers, improved their drainage systems, installed water diversion techniques (e. g., bombastic) and disaster warning systems and increased the capacity of their officials to assist during evacuations. Meanwhile, some urban poor households have adapted to a water-based lifestyle (e. g., raising the floors/increasing the number of floors of their homes, building makeshift bridges among households in swampy areas, building Styrofoam boats for transport, etc.).

Porio, E

Vulnerability, Adaptation, and Resilience to Floods and Climate Change-Related Risks among Marginal, Riverine Communities in Metro Manila

Asian Journal Of Social Science

https://doi.org/10.1163/156853111X597260

Policy measures regarding adaptation to climate change include efforts to adjust socio-economic and ecologic systems. Colombia has undertaken various measures in terms of climate change mitigation and adaptation since becoming a party of the Kyoto protocol in 2001 and a party of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1995. The first national communication to the UNFCCC stated how Colombian agriculture will be severely impacted under different emission scenarios and time frames. The analyses in this document further support that climate change will severely threaten the socioeconomics of Colombian agriculture. We first query national data sources to characterize the agricultural sector. We then use 17 Global Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to quantify how Colombian agricultural production may be affected by climate change, and show the expected changes to years 2040-2069 (2050) under the A2 scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES-A2) and the overall trends in both precipitation and temperature to 2100. We then evaluate expected changes within different regions and measure the proportion of area affected within each crop's distributional range. By 2050, climatic change in Colombia will likely impact 3.5 million people, 14 % of national GDP corresponding to agriculture, employment of 21 % of the population, agro-industries, supply chains, and food and nutritional security. If no adaptation measures are taken, 80 % of crops would be impacted in more than 60 % of their current areas of cultivation, with particularly severe impacts in high value perennial and exportable crops. Impacts also include soil degradation and organic matter losses in the Andes hillsides; likely flooding in the Caribbean and Pacific coasts; niche losses for coffee, fruit, cocoa, and bananas; changes in prevalence of pests and diseases; and increases in the vulnerabilities of non-technically developed smallholders. There is, however, still time to change the current levels of vulnerability if a multidisciplinary focus (i.e., agronomic, economic, and social) in vulnerable sectors is undertaken. Each sub-sector and the Government need to invest in: (1) data collection, (2) detailed, regionally-based impact assessments, (3) research and development, and (4) extension and technology transfer

Ramirez-Villegas, J; Salazar, M; Jarvis, A; Navarro-Racines, CE

A way forward on adaptation to climate change in Colombian agriculture: perspectives towards 2050

Climatic Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0500-y

In the last decades, the increasing vulnerability of floodplains is linked to societal changes such as population density growth, land use changes, water use patterns, among other factors. Land morphology directly influences surface water flow, transport of sediments, soil genesis, local climate and vegetation distribution. Therefore, the land morphology, the land used and management directly influences flood risks genesis. However, attention is not always given to the underlying geomorphological and ecological processes that influence the dynamic of rivers and their floodplains. Floodplains are considered a part of a larger system called Wet System (WS). The WS includes permanent and temporary streams, water bodies, wetlands and valley bottoms. Valley bottom is a broad concept which comprehends not only floodplains but also flat and concave areas, contiguous to streams, in which slope is less than 5%. This will be addressed through a consistent method based on a land morphology approach that classifies landforms according to their hydrological position in the watershed. This method is based on flat areas (slopes less than 5%), surface curvature and hydrological features. The comparison between WS and flood risk data from the Portuguese Environmental Agency for the main rivers of mainland Portugal showed that in downstream areas of watersheds, valley bottoms are coincident with floodplains modelled by hydrological methods. Mapping WS has a particular interest in analysing river ecosystems position and function in the landscape, from upstream to downstream areas in the watershed. This morphological approach is less demanding data and time-consuming than hydrological methods and can be used as the preliminary delimitation of floodplains and potential flood risk areas in situations where there is no hydrological data available. The results were also compared with the land use/cover map at a national level and detailed in Trancao river basin, located in Lisbon metropolitan area, an urbanized basin that suffered heavy flooding in the last decades. This study also contributes to a better understanding of the basin morphology at a local scale and the effects of soil sealing in downstream flood risks. This work will contribute to the understanding of the morphology, ecology and land use of watersheds that could be used to reduce runoff and downstream flood risk. This can be accomplished by using natural water retention and infiltration methods or higher-level based planning instead of a reaction to local decisions on flood hazards.

Cunha, NS; Magalhaes, MR; Domingos, T; Abreu, MM; Küpfer, C

The land morphology approach to flood risk mapping: An application to Portugal

Journal Of Environmental Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.01.077

The research was carried out in neighboring weredas in Ethiopia (Raya Alamata in the Tigray region and Raya Kobo in Amhara) and assessed reasons for differences in the food security status of households in the two areas. The objective was to examine the relationship between disparities in social vulnerability and food security among households in the two woredas. Despite their close proximity, similar work cultures, natural resource availability, and land size, there is a significant difference in food security status and social vulnerability between Raya Alamata and Raya Kobo communities, with Raya Alamata reporting 84% food insecurity and Raya Kobo reporting 24%. Using propensity score matching (PSM), the study compared the degree of social vulnerability and food security of households, and the key variables linked to differences in food security between the communities of the two weredas were differences in irrigation systems, usage of agricultural inputs, extension packages, and other support systems. In contrast to Raya Kobo, where 68% of sample HHs use a groundwater irrigation system for agriculture, Raya Alamata woreda employs just 8.2% of such systems. Similar to this, in Raya Kobo, 51%, 49%, 31%, 27%, and 18% of the sampled HHs have appropriate access to better seeds, extension services, chemical fertilizers, pesticides, soil and water conservation measures, and manure. Only 0.9% of the surveyed HHs in Raya Alamata, however, receive improved seeds; 1.8% receive extension services; 1.8% receive chemical fertilizers; 0.9% receive compost or manure; 1.8% receive water and soil conservation programs. In addition to households' access to irrigation, extension services, and agricultural inputs being much greater in Raya Kobo compared to Raya Alamata, the notable differences in the food security status of households in Raya Alamata and in Raya Kobo are due to the varying levels of social vulnerability in terms of access to basic social services and infrastructures, such as education, rural road facilities, potable water, and health. Differences in social vulnerability and food security between the Raya Alamata and Raya Kobo districts could not be explained by differences in farmland size and fertility.

Hidaru, A; Tolossa, D; Tilahun, T

Households Social Vulnerability to Food Insecurity and Coping Strategies in Raya Kobo and Raya Alamata Woredas, Ethiopia

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su15010160

The question of what actions on climate change make sense in the short term-raised in the quotes above-remains largely unanswered. Until we better organize the climate science and technology enterprise to focus on policy options for the short term, the climate debate is likely to remain in its present gridlock. Policies that address climate change-including both mitigation and adaptation-have both longterm and short-term effects. To date, climate policy has focused primarily on the long term, and so too has the research intended to inform that policy. As a consequence, too little attention is paid to policy options and technological alternatives that might make sense in the short term. One reason for the short term being overlooked is the intellectual gerrymandering of the climate change issue at the international level, which has maintained a narrow focus on greenhouses gases (GHGs) and their effects. Billions of dollars of public investments in climate science and technology might be reoriented to better serve the needs of decision makers grappling with climate change, which will be a policy issue for decades to come, by focusing on policies that make sense in both the short and long terms. This Article presents a series of seven assertions. First, human-caused climate change is real and requires attention by policy makers to both mitigation and adaptation-but there is no quick fix. The issue will be with us for decades and longer. Second, any conceivable emissions reductions policies, even if successful, cannot have a perceptible impact on the climate for many decades. Third, costs (whatever they may be) are consequently borne in the near term, while climate-related benefits are achieved in the distant future. Fourth, many policies that result in a reduction in emissions also provide benefits in the short term which are unrelated to climate change. Fifth, adaptation policies can similarly provide immediate benefits. Sixth, climate policy, particularly international climate policy under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),(3) has been structured so as to keep policy related to long term climate change distinct from policies related to shorter-term issues of energy policy and adaptation. Seventh, research agendas have followed the political organization of international climate change policy and have emphasized the long term, meaning that relatively little attention is paid to developing specific policy options or near-term technologies that might be put into place with both short-term and long-term benefits.

Pielkejr, RA

The case for a sustainable climate policy: Why costs and benefits must be temporally balanced

University Of Pennsylvania Law Review

https://doi.org/10.2307/40041380

Purpose This research seeks to understand the potential impact to investors from government responses to climate change risk, as reflected in changes to planning processes made after significant weather events. Design/methodology/approach The research examines the land planning responses within a select local government authority (LGA) area following four significant weather events, in order to identify any changes made, and the impact on future development proposals. The LGA selected is the Central Coast Council, which is a coastal LGA in the Australian State of New South Wales. The research engaged with the publicly accessible records available on the Central Coast Council, Australian Bureau of Meteorology and other websites; and extant literature. Findings The research reveals that some adjustments were made by the Central Coast Council, and or the State government, to relevant laws, policies and processes following these events. These changes, however, tended to focus on imposing additional requirements on future development applications, rather than on requiring changes to current structures, or prohibiting further development works. Research limitations/implications The research has three limitations: (1) land law in Australia varies, as each State and Territory, and LGA, has specific laws, policies and processes; (2) as laws and policies are subject to change, it was necessary to select points in time at which to engage with those laws and processes; and (3) COVID-19's impact on domestic Australian travel [the authors could not travel interstate] meant only documents available on the Internet were considered, however, not all documents relating to development; or changes to laws and processes were easily accessible online. As the research focussed on one case study area, this may limit the applicability of the results to other areas. However, as extreme events are international, the related issues are a concern in all areas. Practical implications This research confirms the results of other extant research, which observed that some risks cannot be properly mitigated, such that any development in an at-risk area remains at risk. It also identifies that more current, accurate and publicly accessible data are required to enable investors to more easily and accurately identify all risks affecting a property. Originality/value The research provides a snapshot of one LGA's response to the physical risks arising from climate change events.

Cradduck, L; Warren-Myers, G

Development in a state of climate change: an Australian case study of government response

Journal Of Property Investment & Finance

https://doi.org/10.1108/JPIF-11-2021-0090

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to present the major gaps in the field of planning policy and its implementation regarding climate change and disaster risk reduction (DRR), with special reference to the displacement of people, together with the knowledge needed to increase community resilience. The researched relations are illustrated by the example of Serbia. The Republic of Serbia has been faced with increasingly visible impacts of climate change in recent years-floods, heat waves, droughts and others. During the floods that hit Serbia in 2014, over 30,000 people experienced displacement. These events have triggered numerous efforts, both to repair the incurred damage and to analyze opportunities for prevention. Design/methodology/approach - This research has used document analysis to investigate contemporary approaches defined by policies, programs and research reports regarding climate change and DRR, with special reference to the displacement of people. An analytical framework has been used to evaluate to what extent the planning policy framework in Serbia addresses these issues in the context of achieving resilient development. Secondary analysis of research data has been used to recognize the gaps and identify needs for increasing community resilience. Findings-Based on the growing trends in projections of climate change as a result of induced natural disasters for the region in the future and international trends in coping with these issues, this paper argues that it is necessary to improve the implementation of the planning policy framework and the capacities of professionals and citizens, to reduce future displacement and increase community resilience to climate change. The key weaknesses found within DRR and the emergency management system in Serbia were the lack of an appropriate information base of the cadastre of risk zones and the lack of information and coordination of actors on the local to the national level. During the pre-disaster period, findings stress a weak partnership and capacity development practice at the local level, as well as between local responsible bodies and regional/national entities in charge of emergency management and DRR. The paper singles out the main preconditions for achieving effective resilient planning, so that such a plan can move people away from marginal areas and provide living conditions that are resilient. Originality/value - This paper provides a comprehensive insight analysis of the relations between climate change and DRR, with special reference to the planning policy. Using the lessons learned from the recent climate-induced disaster with its implications on displacement, the paper identifies needs for strengthening capacities to establish more resilient communities in Serbia.

Crncevic, T; Lovren, VO

Displacement and climate change: improving planning policy and increasing community resilience

International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-05-2017-0103

Greater diversity (i.e., variety, balance and disparity) within agricultural systems is often suggested as a solution to promote redundancy within such systems and therefore increase their adaptive capacity and reduce their vulnerability against climate change and variability. Yet this assumption relies upon the gathering and integration of field- and herd-scale results at the farm scale. We have conducted a farm-scale simulation-based study to evaluate the potential for increasing adaptive capacity and reducing vulnerability of livestock systems to weather variability through increase of their agricultural diversity. We manipulate in the simulation, factors of change in the livestock systems resulting in less diverse and more diverse livestock systems to be simulated. We assume, a priori, that certain combinations of the factored system components bring redundancy in the system and in turn increase its adaptive capacity and reduce its vulnerability against weather variability. Simulated factors of change are: F1: a change in the ratio of the area mechanically harvested (vs. grazed) to the whole farm area; F2: a change in the crops and grassland types grown or in the distribution of the area between crops and/or grassland types; F3: a change in calving periods from one season to another. The simulation plan includes a baseline scenario without changes and scenarios corresponding to all possible combinations of F1-F3. These scenarios are applied to four livestock systems located on a diagonal across France over a succession of four years with varying weather conditions. In these systems, self-sufficiency for forage is jeopardized by unfavorable years, and this may increase animal feeding costs. Thus we consider that adaptive capacity increases and vulnerability decreases as long as self-sufficiency for forage is achieved without increasing animal feeding costs. Results confirm the potential for increasing adaptive capacity and reducing vulnerability of livestock systems to weather variability through increase of their agricultural diversity. For instance, F2 has three main kinds of impacts on self-sufficiency for forage: (i) it yields significant average improvements by 34%, 43%, 36% and 36% across livestock systems for the four successive years, (ii) it buffers year-to-year variations and (iii) the final level of self-sufficiency is higher than the initial one even after two years with unfavorable weather conditions. Moreover, simulated changes do not increase animal feeding costs. Thus our results provide empirical evidence at the farm scale to supplement literature reviews based on field- and herd-scale results.

Martin, G; Magne, MA

Agricultural diversity to increase adaptive capacity and reduce vulnerability of livestock systems against weather variability - A farm-scale simulation study

Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2014.10.006