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Agricultural communities in the Himalayas are especially vulnerable to the shocks of climate change. An improved understanding of how residents perceive changes to climate and agroecosystems is critical to creating and implementing locally appropriate adaptation strategies. In this study, we administered a questionnaire to 251 residents within 16 villages in and adjacent to the Kedarnath Wildlife Sanctuary (KWS), a culturally and ecologically important area in the Indian state of Uttarakhand. The study area is rugged and remote, and the resource-dependent communities are among the least-studied of the region. Using the questionnaire, we investigated how residents perceive changes to climate and agroecosystems, how households are adapting, and whether perceptions and adaptations differ by demographic and livelihood factors. We used both quantitative (summary statistics, t-tests, and chi square tests) and qualitative strategies (interpretation of open-ended responses) to analyze the questionnaire results. A majority of respondents perceived an increase in many variables including flash flood/landslide events, total annual rainfall, average summer temperature, agricultural pests, crop failure, and crop raiding by wild animals. In most cases, perceptions did not vary by demographic or livelihood factors. However, larger landholders were more likely to perceive an increase in intense rain/snow, average annual rainfall, and wildlife sightings in fields. Most respondents reported that they were not adapting or planning to adapt to change. However, a few reported adaptation strategies such as changing crops and planting vegetation to stabilize soil, as well as pesticide use. Respondents believed that to effectively adapt they need assistance from outside institutions. Locally based (panchayat) and state-level institutions were ranked as very helpful for adaptation, but the Forest Department, Government of India, and NGOs received lower rankings. Overall, the respondents demonstrated a high level of agreement in their perceptions of change and barriers to adaptation. The broad consensus among residents offers an important opportunity for consensus building and collaboration with local and national institutions. The study has implications for collaborative public works and research projects which can help to build trust, develop locally-appropriate adaptation strategies, reduce conflict with wild animals, share insights, and increase the visibility of local knowledge about climate and agroecosystems. Furthermore, the study illustrates how understanding the perceptions and insights of agricultural communities around protected areas can inform adaptation at the ground level.

Ogra, M; Manral, U; Platt, RV; Badola, R; Butcher, L

Local perceptions of change in climate and agroecosystems in the Indian Himalayas: A case study of the Kedarnath Wildlife Sanctuary (KWS) landscape, India

Applied Geography

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2020.102339

The importance of problems caused by global warming and increased GHG emissions have been recognised by the international community which responded to this challenge through a growing number of studies, agreements and policies dealing with climate change prevention, mitigation and adaptation. The shift to green economy is confirmed as the highest development aim, while establishing a balanced relationship between environmental policies, economic efficiency, technological upgrading and behavioural transition is one of main global assignments of our epoch. The importance of knowledge and innovations is also emphasised, while their availability, diffusion and exchange represent a key-reinforcement of green transition, especially in societies which are facing severe economic, social and environmental problems caused by sensitive local circumstances. The case of Serbia, which is the focus of this article, presents one of possible paths towards climate change adaptation, conditioned by more than two turbulent decades of the recent history of the country. Since democratic changes in 2000, environmental issues have become visible on institutional (governmental) level - through introduction of new environmental laws, research funding, preparation and implementation of specific documents or strategies, and on non-institutional (non-governmental) level - as different environmentally focused initiatives, usually supported by international, regional or local funds. However, on both levels information networks represent an inevitable structural ingredient, which enables a sustainable and locally adjusted approach to climate adaptation. Following global trends, information networks in Serbia are mainly used in the domain of public communication of climate changes, covering three major thematic areas of climate adaptability - human behaviour, ecological awareness and general efficiency. Considering all these specificities, the article provides a review of detected practices related to the use of information networks in climate change adaptation on both global and local level, stressing the possible benefits and limitations in the context of Serbia. The first part of the article introduces a global background of the problem of climate adaptation, summarising major environmental trends, research problems and policy responses, and emphasising the relation between climate change and urban(ised) environment. The second part is dedicated to the case of Serbia, focusing on three aspects - general condition of the environment, the legal framework and the perception/recognition of urban context and its environmental effects in recent development documents. The third part is focused on the relation between information networks, built environment/cities and climate changes, providing an overview of global trends and Serbian practice, while possible improvements of detected local weaknesses are given in the concluding part.

Stupar, A; Mihajlov, V

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN SERBIA: THE ROLE OF INFORMATION NETWORKS

Metu Journal Of The Faculty Of Architecture

https://doi.org/10.4305/METU.JFA.2016.1.3

Climate change is confronting African farmers with growing uncertainties. Advances in seasonal climate predictions offer potential for assisting farmers in dealing with climate risk. Experimental cases of forecast dissemination to African rural communities suggest that participatory approaches can facilitate understanding and use of uncertain climate information. But few of these studies integrate critical reflections on participation that have emerged in the last decade which reveal how participatory approaches can miss social dynamics of power at the community level and in the broader context. Furthermore, neither climate application research nor theoretical critiques of participation fully examine the culturally constructed nature of participation. Drawing on sociolinguistic analysis, in-depth interviews, and ethnographic observation, this paper examines how Ugandan farmers engage in participation in the context of discussions of seasonal climate forecasts. Forecasts were presented to farmers groups whose members were then asked to discuss the forecast among themselves. In doing so, groups sought to develop a common understanding of the forecast and consensual plans for response strategies. Focusing on one particular group meeting as an example, we show how different cultural styles of participation affect the interpretation of the forecast and the formulation of response strategies. Group interaction is shown to be mostly structured around two styles of participation. On the one hand, there is the Western style advocated by NGOs and the government, which centers on ensuring that all individuals who are present have opportunities to speak during discussion and to vote on group decisions. On the other hand, a Kiganda style of participation emphasizes the importance of affirming ties to a collectivity, respect for social hierarchy, deployment of good manners, and consensus building. The case study illuminates how the performance of different styles of participation is grounded in localized frameworks of language and culture but also draw on political and policy discourses at the national level. Although a cultural high value on consensus may work in favor of prominent members, the availability of multiple styles of participation also enables group members to exercise their agency in positive ways. Attention to the interplay of different styles of participation throws light on the subtle social processes that shape how knowledge is assessed, which sources are trusted, which and whose interpretations prevail, what options are deemed viable, how costs and benefits are calculated, and whose resources are mobilized in the effort to reduce vulnerability to climate risk. These are key questions for an assessment of the role of boundary organizations, such as farmer associations, in the communication and application of climate forecasts in agriculture.

Roncoli, C; Orlove, BS; Kabugo, MR; Waiswa, MM

Cultural styles of participation in farmers' discussions of seasonal climate forecasts in Uganda

Agriculture And Human Values

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10460-010-9257-y

The increase in the intensity and frequency of climate extremes threatens socioeconomic development. This study examines variability of mean and extreme climate, farmers' perception of the changes, and impacts in the Awash River Basin. Daily rainfall and temperature data were used to analyze 23 extreme climate indices. The Mann-Kendall test was used to assess the magnitude and significance of the changes. Results show an increase in minimum (0.019-0.055 degrees C/year) and maximum temperatures (0.049-0.09 degrees C/year), while total rainfall is on a downward trend (from -3.84 mm/year to -10.26 mm/year). Warm extreme temperature indicators, including warmest day (TXx), warmest night (TNx), warm day (TX90p), warm night (TN90p), and warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), show a significant increasing trend (p < 0.05). Nevertheless, except the tepid- cool humid agroecology zone, cold extreme temperature indicators in cool days (TN10p), cool nights (TX10p), and cold spell duration (CSDI) are declining. Extreme precipitation indices, including maximum 1-day precipitation amount (RX1day), count of days when precipitation >= 10 mm (R10 mm), maximum 5-day precipitation amount (RX5day), count of days when precipitation >= 20 mm (R2Omm), very wet days (R95p), extreme wet days (R99p), and total precipitation (PRCPTOT), show a decreasing trend. The perception of most farmers' on climate change and climate extremes agreed with climate records. The major impacts perceived and asserted over all agroecologies are food price inflation, crop productivity decline, crop pests and diseases spread, livestock disease increase, and the emergence of pests and weeds. The increasing trend in extreme warm temperatures, decreasing trend in the cold extreme, and declining trend in precipitation indicators affected agricultural productivity and farmers whose livelihood depends on rainfed agriculture. This agroecology-specific study provides critical information to policymakers, decision makers, and farmers about the potential impacts of climate change and extreme events, leading to the development of agroecology-based adaptation measures.

Damtew, A; Teferi, E; Ongoma, V; Mumo, R; Esayas, B

Spatiotemporal Changes in Mean and Extreme Climate: Farmers' Perception and Its Agricultural Implications in Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Climate

https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10060089

Smallholder farmers like those in Limpopo and the Free State (FS) Province of South Africa sometimes incur high production costs due to their crop choices. This cost is exacerbated by the challenges posed by climate change and the socio-economic position of the smallholder farmers. The opportunity cost of producing cost-intensive crops is the forgone benefits these smallholder farmers would have gained if they grew cheaper options. Therefore, a tool to assist farmers and stakeholders when choosing, advising on, or assisting with production and management decisions at farm levels to ensure profitability and sustainability is needed. This paper aimed at providing a framework to assist farmers in identifying profitable crops for production under the present day and possible future scenarios in Limpopo and the FS. This framework uses a multi-stage process with forward and backward linkages to refine analysis and results. Through reviews, interviews, focus groups and transect walks, the state of the biophysical, socio-economic, and political environment and their impact on smallholder farming were collected from 600 farmers and 40 key informants. Inferential statistics and cost-benefit analysis were used for data analysis. The results indicate that maize, though widely cultivated in both Provinces, has the highest average total production cost of R 29,694.39 /ha while the lowest was sunflower with R 6,453.78 /ha. Irrigated maize had the highest break-even price per hectare of R 38 351.85, while sunflower had the lowest R 4 685.85. In both provinces, groundnut ranked first on Net Present Value (NPVs) at discount rates of 8% and 10%, while low yield maize ranked last, scoring values of -R 4 163 894 and -R 3 953 393. Groundnut had the highest Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) at 2.22 and 6.70 in Limpopo and FS. The BCR for low-yield maize was the lowest of all the crops. The base scenario results in economic and financial terms indicate it is better to farm sunflower, soybean, grain sorghum, and groundnuts than maize because of lower production cost and maize substitutes. Furthermore, climate change projections suggest a drier future for these provinces, implying the yield targets for farmers producing maize would be difficult to achieve when faced with climate change. Such information is vital for stakeholders.

Kephe, PN; Siewe, LC; Lekalakala, RG; Ayisi, KK; Petja, BM

Optimizing Smallholder Farmers' Productivity Through Crop Selection, Targeting and Prioritization Framework in the Limpopo and Free State Provinces, South Africa

Frontiers In Sustainable Food Systems

https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2022.738267

This paper describes the development of a method that couples flood modelling with network analysis to evaluate the accessibility of city districts by emergency responders during flood events. We integrate numerical modelling of flood inundation with geographical analysis of service areas for the Ambulance Service and the Fire & Rescue Service. The method was demonstrated for two flood events in the City of York, UK to assess the vulnerability of care homes and sheltered accommodation. We determine the feasibility of emergency services gaining access within the statutory 8- and 10-min targets for high priority, life-threatening incidents 75% of the time, during flood episodes. A hydrodynamic flood inundation model (FloodMap) simulates the 2014 pluvial and 2015 fluvial flood events. Predicted floods (with depth >25 cm and areas >100m(2)) were overlain on the road network to identify sites with potentially restricted access. Accessibility of the city to emergency responders during flooding was quantified and mapped using; (i) spatial coverage from individual emergency nodes within the legislated timeframes, and; (ii) response times from individual emergency service nodes to vulnerable care homes and sheltered accommodation under flood and non-flood conditions. Results show that, during the 2015 fluvial flood, the area covered by two of the three Fire & Rescue Service stations reduced by 14% and 39% respectively, while the remaining station needed to increase its coverage by 39%. This amounts to an overall reduction of 6% and 20% for modelled and observed floods respectively. During the 2014 surface water flood, 7 out of 22 care homes (32%) and 15 out of 43 sheltered accommodation nodes (35%) had modelled response times above the 8-min threshold from any Ambulance station. Overall, modelled surface water flooding has a larger spatial footprint than fluvial flood events. Hence, accessibility of emergency services may be impacted differently depending on flood mechanism. Moreover, we expect emergency services to face greater challenges under a changing climate with a growing, more vulnerable population. The methodology developed in this study could be applied to other cities, as well as for scenario-based evaluation of emergency preparedness to support strategic decision making, and in real-time forecasting to guide operational decisions where heavy rainfall lead-time and spatial resolution are sufficient. (C) 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V.

Coles, D; Yu, DP; Wilby, RL; Green, D; Herring, Z

Beyond 'flood hotspots': Modelling emergency service accessibility during flooding in York, UK

Journal Of Hydrology

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.12.013

The study examined the challenges faced by cocoyam farmers in adapting to climate change in Southeast, Nigeria. Three hundred and eighty-four respondents selected through multi-stage sampling technique were used for the study. Data were collected using structured questionnaire and interview schedule and analysed using both descriptive and inferential statistical tools. Findings showed that majority were females (67%), married (92%) and maintain average household size of 6 persons and a mean age of 51 years. They were mainly primary (32%) and secondary (34%) school certificate holders with farming (77%) as their major occupation. The major cropping pattern practiced was mixed farming with cassava (63%) and maize (58%) as the major crops cultivated by the farmers. Majority of the farmers owned farms of one hectare and below accessed mainly through inheritance (76%) and labour sourced mainly through hiring (50%). Most (81%) of the farmers have spent more than ten years in farming. Climate change information was accessed mainly through their personal experience (64%), radio (42%) and fellow villagers (39%). The study identified eight major challenges faced by cocoyam farmers in adapting to climate change namely Lack/high cost of farm inputs and low soil fertility (Factor 1), Land and labour constraints (Factor 2), Poor access to information and ineffectiveness of cooperatives (Factor 3), lack of/poor access to fund and credit facilities and poor government support (Factor 4), lack of improved varieties of cocoyam (factor 5), poor value attached to cocoyam (Factor 6), poor infrastructural capacity and technology know-how (Factor 7) and Transportation constraint (Factor 8). Analysis of variance identified significant variations in the challenges faced by cocoyam farmers in the study area. The study recommends enrollment in cooperatives and revitalizing existing cooperatives, re-orientation of farmers on the benefits of cocoyam and increased used of climate change information sharing using mobile phones as possible ways of alleviating the challenges. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Ifeanyi-Obi, CC; Togun, AO; Lamboll, R; Adesope, OM; Arokoyu, SB

Challenges faced by cocoyam farmers in adapting to climate change in Southeast Nigeria

Climate Risk Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2017.04.002

Climate change impacts on African human settlements arise from a number of climate change-related causes, notably sea level changes, impacts on water resources, extreme weather events, food security, increased health risks from vector borne diseases, and temperature-related morbidity in urban environments. Some coastlines and river deltas of Africa have densely populated low-lying areas, which would be affected by a rise in sea level. Other coastal settlements will be subjected to increased coastal erosion. Recent flooding in East Africa highlighted the vulnerability of flood plain settlements and the need to develop adaptive strategies for extreme weather events management and mitigation. In the semi arid and arid zones many settlements are associated with inland drainage water sources. Increases in drought will enhance water supply related vulnerabilities. Inter-basin and international water transfers raise the need for adequate legal frameworks that ensure equity among participating nations. Similarly, water supply and irrigation reservoirs in seasonal river catchments might fail, leading to poor sanitation in urban areas as well as food shortage. Hydroelectric power generation could be restricted in drought periods, and where it is a major contributor to the energy budget, reduced power generation could lead to a multiplicity of other impacts. States are advised to develop other sources of renewable energy. Temperature changes will lead to altered distribution of disease vectors such as mosquitoes, making settlements currently free of vector borne diseases vulnerable. Rapid breeding of the housefly could create a menace associated with enteric disorders, especially in conditions of poor sanitation. The dry savannahs of Africa are projected as possible future food deficit areas. Recurrent crop failures would lead to transmigration into urban areas. Pastoralists are likely to undertake more trans-boundary migrations and probably come into conflict with settled communities. Adaptive measures will involve methods of coastal defences (where applicable), a critical review of the energy sector, both regionally and nationally, a rigorous adherence to city hygiene procedures, an informed agricultural industry that is capable of adapting to changing climate in terms of cropping strategies, and innovations in environment design to maximise human comfort at minimum energy expenditure. In the savannah and arid areas water resource management systems will be needed to optimise water resource use and interstate co-operation where such resources are shared. Climate change issues discussed here raise the need for state support for more research and education in impacts of climate change on human settlements in Africa.

Magadza, CHD

Climate change impacts and human settlements in Africa: Prospects for adaptation

Environmental Monitoring And Assessment

https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1006355210516

The recent IPCC-SREX report demonstrated for the first time comprehensively that anthropogenic climate change is modifying weather and climate extremes. The report also documents, what has been long known, that losses from natural disasters, including those linked to weather, have increased strongly over the last decades. Responding to the debate regarding a contribution of anthropogenic climate change to the increased burden from weather-related disasters, the IPCC-SREX finds that such a link cannot be made today, and identifies the key driver behind increases in losses as exposure changes in terms of rising population and capital at risk. Yet, in the presence of many uncertainties and omissions involved in studying trends in losses, the authors of the IPCC report did not exclude a role for climate change. In particular, one key uncertainty identified has been the incomplete consideration of economic vulnerability to natural hazards, defined as the propensity to incur losses in a hazardous event. Focussing on the role of vulnerability in determining today's and future disaster loss risk, we critically review the literature on loss trends and projections, and provide context by way of a modeling case study of observed and projected losses from riverine flooding in Bangladesh. We find that research has almost exclusively focused on normalizing losses for changes in exposure, yet not for vulnerability, which appears a major gap given the dynamic nature of vulnerability, and documented evidence regarding decreases in vulnerability in many regions. One such region is South Asia, and of particular interest to us is Bangladesh, a country heavily at-risk, but also with substantial expertise regarding risk management, where we are able to show that economic vulnerability has been substantially reduced over the last decades. In order to understand future flood risk in Bangladesh, we project risk based on past reductions in vulnerability and compare it to a case where vulnerability is not considered explicitly and kept static. In the dynamic scenario, risk would still increase in absolute terms, yet at much smaller increments compared to a static vulnerability case. Thus, a key finding of our analysis is that, absent dynamic quantifications of vulnerability, studies on future losses under climatic change may overestimate future losses. Furthermore, the analysis also suggests that there are substantial benefits to gain by supporting vulnerability-reducing measures in many regions. Finally, we emphasize the need for further taking a risk-based perspective on modelling climate impacts in order to provide robust information on the costs and impacts from extremes in a changing climate.

Mechler, R; Bouwer, LM

Understanding trends and projections of disaster losses and climate change: is vulnerability the missing link?

Climatic Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1141-0

Floods are extreme events affecting millions of people worldwide and causing loss worth billions. The magnitude and frequency of floods are likely to increase with altered climate, and developing countries tend to suffer the most because of low resilience and adaptive capacity. This research aimed to analyze existing and preferred future flood adaptation strategies in a flood-prone West Rapti River (WRR) Basin of Nepal, using hydrological analysis and flood modelling, and a social survey of 240 households (HHs) and several focus group discussions (FGDs). The specific objectives were to (1) understand the rainfall-flood behaviour of the basin in a simplistic way, (2) carry out flood modelling to generate inundation maps for informing the local people, and (3) identify flood adaptation strategies based on people's perception. Flood inundation maps are generated for four scenarios based on return periods: scenario I (2 years), scenario II (20 years), scenario III (50 years), and scenario IV (100 years). Results show that the southern parts of three rural municipalities (Duduwa, Narainapur, and Rapti Sonari) get inundated almost every year irrespective of the flood magnitude. This information was presented to local communities before administering the HH survey and FGDs so that they could make informed decisions. During the survey, the preference of people's adaptation strategies for the four flood scenarios was explored and prioritized. Our findings suggest that peoples' thoughts and preferences for adaptation strategies changed with exposure to flood magnitudes. For example, bamboo mesh with sand filled bags-simplest and least expensive adaptation strategy-was preferred for a less severe flood while a complex and expensive technique reservoir/flood regulating structures was preferred for a devastating flood scenario. Thus, this study has highlighted firstly, the importance of inundation maps to understand and inform the local people about floods and their impacts; and secondly, the value of information to the people enabling them to make informed decisions. The novelty of this empirical study lies in a multi-disciplinary assessment framework which integrates scientific information, stakeholder knowledge, and local people's perceptions of flood risks and adaptation strategies for the future. Such an approach of hydro-social analysis has the potential for replication in flood-prone regions globally, with similar bio-physical and socio-economic conditions.

Devkota, R; Bhattarai, U; Devkota, L; Maraseni, TN

Assessing the past and adapting to future floods: a hydro-social analysis

Climatic Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02909-w

Problem: In the absence of U.S. federal action to address the problem of climate change, a diverse array of nonfederal policy entrepreneurs and climate action planners has produced an impressive body of plans and policies to fight climate change at the regional, state, and local levels. Their actions are highly laudable, but have they actually reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions? Purpose: This article evaluates the work of a group of innovative state-level policy entre-preneurs whose actions were chronicled by Barry Rabe, and a set of 29 state climate action plans systematically analyzed by Stephen Wheeler. It compares states with and without climate policy entrepreneurs and states with and without climate action plans, asks if either plans or entrepreneurs have been successful in reducing CO2 emissions, and identifies the elements within plans that are associated with the greatest reductions. Methods: The analysis uses multiple regression models to explain changes in per capita CO2 emissions attributable to residen-tial, commercial, transportation, and total nonindustrial end users from 1990 to 2007. A package of control variables accounts for political, social, climatic, economic, and urban form factors, while policy variables isolate the effects of climate policy entrepre-neurs, climate action planners, and specific policy recommendations within climate action plans. Results and conclusions: State-level climate actions reduce GHG emissions by a measurable but modest amount: about one half metric ton per person per year. This represents 2-3% of the average American's 24-ton annual total GHG emissions. The reduction is small in comparison to the magnitude of the problem, but a substantial tax increase or population shift away from sprawling areas would be necessary to achieve the same reduction. specific policies I find to be associated with lower emissions include: building efficiency in both residential and commercial sectors, Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) policies in the commercial sector, and California's vehicle efficiency standards in the transportation sector. Takeaway for practice: It is encouraging that we can already identify emission reduc-tions related to state climate action. However, the observed reductions remain small com-pared to the scope of the problem. These findings should persuade states without plans to begin the planning process while encourag-ing states with plans to encourage more entrepreneurship aimed at developing a second generation of policy options for stabilizing our planet's climate with or without federal action.

Drummond, WJ

Statehouse Versus Greenhouse

Journal Of The American Planning Association

https://doi.org/10.1080/01944363.2010.499537

Several studies have reported farmers' perceptions of climate change, but there is inadequate knowledge available on the farm households' climate change awareness (CCA) in Pakistan. This study was undertaken to assess farmers' CCA. For this purpose, the study collected the data from southern and central Punjab, Pakistan, through a purposively multistage random sampling technique. Binary logit and odds ratio were used to analyse the data. The analysis of the study shows that the majority of respondents were aware of climate change but had differing perceptions of climate change. This research showed that 70.8% of farmers are aware of climate change and reported their awareness level on winter and summer rainfall and temperature, the growing season length (GSL) of crops, the sea level rise, and the causes of climate changes and conceptual understanding of it while persistently denying climate change. However, many farmers did not perceive decreasing winter (48%) and summer (31.2%) precipitation, the majority of the farmers could not perceive in the GSL of summer (63.2%) and winter (64.4%) crops, while few did not notice increased winter (36.4%) and summer (33.6%) temperature, respectively. Financial and non-financial factors such as education (1.16), experience (1.07), distance to markets (1.07), non-agricultural income (2.83), access to agricultural credit (0.29) and marketing of produce (6.10), access to extension services (3.87) and the number of adaptation strategies (1.30) were pointedly related to farm households' CCA. These odds values in the parenthesis show that the likelihood of CCA increases/decreases as these determinants increase. Moreover, the results of the study show that CCA is a significant predictor of adaptation to climate change. Main adaptation strategies opted for by farmers include changing crop variety and type, changing planting dates, tree plantation, increasing/changing fertilizer, soil and water conservation, off-farm income and diversification. Further, the study finds that some farmers did not perceive climate change as it takes time to be visible, but they are aware of climate change. Therefore, there is a need to reshape the households' perception of climate change and enhance farmers' CCA through existing extension services.

Mustafa, G; Alotaibi, BA; Nayak, RK

Linking Climate Change Awareness, Climate Change Perceptions and Subsequent Adaptation Options among Farmers

Agronomy-Basel

https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy13030758

Flash flood vulnerability mapping and livelihood vulnerability assessment are often considered essential elements of risk reduction strategies and act as indispensable initiatives. In line with the contention, an effort has been made to restrict flash flood vulnerability mapping and need assessment based on vulnerability classification at haor regions in Bangladesh using satellite remote sensing, geographic information system (GIS), and econometric models. First, flash flood vulnerability mapping was performed using a bivariate statistical regression-based frequency ratio (FR) model. The vulnerability mapping results revealed that wetlands from land use land cover (LULC), soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI) (>0.65-0.94), drainage density (>0.0166-0.0219 m/m(2)), flooding depth (2.61-3.40 m), and rainfall (2243-2619 mm/6 months) have significant roles in flash floods occurring with selected factor weight values of 2.241, 1.935, 1.576, 1.391 and 1.032, respectively. Moreover, the outputs of vulnerability mapping were classified into very high (7.57%), high (22.56%), moderate (56.96%), low (12.34%), and very low (0.56%), covering areas of 1303.0, 3882.0, 9801.0, 2124.0 and 96.0 km(2), respectively. Second, 40 sampled respondents from each vulnerable groups were interviewed to assess their vulnerability and coping strategies against flash floods using field survey data through the composite livelihood vulnerability index (CLVI). CLVI findings showed that the vulnerability differences among the five groups of respondents were relevant to vulnerability mapping and classification done in the remote sensing and GIS platform. The logit estimates explained that the age of the household head, household size, farming experience, educational status, occupation of the household head, farm size, proximity to the marketplace, and no. of earning members affect farmers' attitudes toward coping strategies at different levels significantly. Identifying the risk of a flash flood in providing farmers with accurate information, developing advanced risk management strategies, and providing agricultural credit and service provision, policymakers and research institutions may benefit from mapping and evaluating their livelihood vulnerability on a single platform.

Islam, MM; Ujiie, K; Noguchi, R; Ahamed, T

Flash flood-induced vulnerability and need assessment of wetlands using remote sensing, GIS, and econometric models

Remote Sensing Applications-Society And Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2021.100692

Purpose Change of climate is attributed to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere observed over comparable periods. The purpose of this paper is to explore smallholder farmers' perceptions of climate change and compare it with meteorological data, as well as to identify perceived adaptation barriers and examine the factors that influence the choice of adaptation options in eastern Ethiopia. Design/methodology/approach In total, 384 sample households were chosen from four districts of the zone. A cross-sectional survey was used to conduct the study. Primary data was acquired through key informant interviews, focus group discussions and semistructured interviews, whereas meteorological data was collected from the National Meteorological Service Agency of Ethiopia. A Mann-Kendall statistical test was used to analyze temperature and rainfall trends over 33 years. A multivariate probit (MVP) model was used to identify the determinants of farmers' choice of climate change adaptation strategies. Findings The result indicated that temperature was significantly increased, whereas rainfall was significantly reduced over the time span of 33 years. This change in climate over time was consistently perceived by farmers. Smallholder farmers use improved varieties of crops, crop diversification, adjusting planting dates, soil and water conservation practices, reducing livestock holdings, planting trees and small-scale irrigation adaptation strategies. Moreover, this study indicated that sex of the household head, landholding size, livestock ownership, access to extension, access to credit, social capital, market distance, access to climate change-related training, nonfarm income, agroecological setting and poverty status of the households significantly influence farmers' choice of adaptation strategies. Research limitations/implications Further research is required to evaluate the economic impact of each adaptation options on the livelihood of smallholder farmers. Practical implications Institutional variables significantly influenced how farmers adapted to climate change, and all of these issues might potentially be addressed by improving institutional service delivery. To improve farm-level adaptation, local authorities are recommended to investigate the institutional service provision system while also taking demographic and agroecological factors in to account. Originality/value This study compared farmers' perceptions with temperature and rainfall trend analysis, which has been rarely addressed by other studies. This study adopts an MVP model and indicated the adaptation strategies that complement/substitute strategies each other. Furthermore, this study discovered that the choice of adaptation options differed between poor and nonpoor households, which has been overlooked in previous climate change adaptation research.

Zeleke, T; Beyene, F; Deressa, T; Yousuf, J; Kebede, T

Smallholder farmers' perception of climate change and choice of adaptation strategies in East Hararghe Zone, Eastern Ethiopia

International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-01-2022-0014

Purpose This paper aims to understand the perception of smallholder farmers on climate change, identify major livestock related climate change adaptation (CCA) strategies and their determinants in selected neighboring districts of Tigray and Amhara regions of Ethiopia. Design/methodology/approach A total of 416 household heads were involved in a questionnaire survey using a multistage sampling approach. To understand the socio-economic factors that influence farmers' perception on climate change (CC) and/or variability, a binary logit model was used. Multinomial logit model was used to identify the determinants of smallholder farmers' choices of adaptation strategies. Findings Milk reduction, weight loss, feed shortage and frequent animal disease outbreak were indicated as major impacts of CC on livestock production. About 86.2% of the farmers' exercise CCA measures where livestock health care and management (25%), followed by livelihood diversification (21.5%) and shifting and diversification of livestock species (20.9%) were the top three adaptation measures implemented. Education, knowledge on CCA strategies, access to veterinary service and extension, market access, annual income, non-farm income, total livestock unit, sex of household head and household size were the major determinant factors to farmers' choice of CCA. Research limitations/implications Concerned authorities working in CC related sectors should give due attention to improve smallholder farmers' access to extension and veterinary services, market access and climate information to enhance their adaptive capacity to CC impacts. In addition, incorporating climate change awareness trainings into the existing extension packages is crucial to enhance the awareness of farmers on climate change and implement appropriate adaptation strategies. Moreover, it is very essential to provide appropriate herd management and marketing strategy based on the production system to avoid the significant price reduction during drought periods. Practical implications Concerned authorities working in CC related sectors should give due attention to improve smallholder farmers' access to extension and veterinary services, market access and climate information to enhance their adaptive capacity to CC impacts. In addition, incorporating climate change awareness trainings into the existing extension packages is crucial to implement appropriate adaptation strategies. Moreover, it is very essential to provide appropriate herd management and marketing strategy based on the production system to avoid the significant price reduction during drought periods. Originality/value This research is focused on smallholder crop-livestock farmers, livestock-based CCASs and presents the determinant factors to their choice of adaptation.

Menghistu, HT; Tesfay, G; Abraha, AZ; Mawcha, GT

Socio-economic determinants of smallholder mixed crop-livestock farmers' choice of climate change adaptation in the drylands of Northern Ethiopia

International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-09-2020-0099

Knowledge is scarce about the composition of soils on Bellona and other Pacific atolls. Such knowledge is important as it is closely related to sustainable land use of these special soils formed on carbonatic/phosphatic materials. Therefore, the micromorphological, chemical and mineralogical composition of samples from genetic horizons in three dominant Bellonese soils (Malanga, Kenge Ungi and Kenge Toaha) and underlying rock (Tanahu) were investigated. Tanahu mainly consists of dolomite, but this mineral is absent in the three soils, which are dominated by phosphate-containing minerals. The Malanga soil is strongly dominated by Ca and P with minor amounts of Al, F and Fe present in fluorapatite, hydroxyapatite and crandallite. In contrast, Al, Fe and P dominate in the Kenge Ungi and Kenge Toaha soils in accordance with a mineralogy consisting of crandallite together with aluminum oxides (gibbsite/boehmite) and iron oxides, mainly goethite with minor contents of hematite. The observed carbonate for phosphate substitution in the apatites and crandallite is important as it indicates an increased phosphate availability in the soils. All three soil samples contain <= 1% Si and very little K and Mg. Total contents of essential microelements are considered adequate, but the rather high contents of Sr and U, especially in the Kenge Ungi soil may be problematic. Although the composition of the soils suggests substantial fertility and resilience, the lack of K-containing weatherable minerals (silicate minerals) is in line with a very low K (and low Mg) content and explains why fertilization may be needed to sustain future cultivation of these special soils. Due to a possible low bioavailability of Fe. Mn and maybe other micronutrients at the circumneutral pH of these carbonatic/phosphatic soils as well as the rather high contents of Sr and U, it may be recommended to test element availability using appropriate chemical soil tests supplemented by plant experiments to ensure safe and sustainable (optimal) soil use. However, according to the local farmers, the Malanga, Kenge Toaha and Kenge Ungi soils are considered well suited for production of the preferred crops. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Borggaard, OK; Koch, CB; Elberling, B; Breuning-Madsen, H; Stemmerik, L

Composition of characteristic soils on the raised atoll Bellona, Solomon Islands

Geoderma

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2011.10.001

Riparian ecosystems are critical biological habitat that needs to be preserved. These systems face multiple stresses of altered water regime, increased human interference and biological invasion, climate change, land developments and other site-specific issues that may include eutrophication and urbanisation. In due course of urbanisation, riparian vegetation is replaced by both impervious and less permeable surfaces causing more frequent floods, greater total surface runoff, and decreased time to produce runoff. This may result in flooding of the city when a substantial rain is received. In this study, we evaluated the vulnerability of riparian zones in Dehradun city of India due to urbanisation using a series of indicators extracted from remote sensing data. The changes in the landscape pattern of the riparian zones were examined by analyzing and manipulating Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 datasets using Google Earth Engine, ArcGIS 10.1 and ERDAS IMAGINE 2014 software. Factors influencing the changes within the riparian area were identified using higher resolution image, existing base maps and reconnaissance surveys to qualify them as one of the indicators. Anthropogenic activities such as new residential buildings, infrastructure (such as roads), farming activities and commercial activities (industrial set up) were some of the factors contributing to the vulnerability of riparian zones. The final indicators in the form of riparian zone slope, extent of the riparian area, vegetation cover, human disturbance were mapped as raster layers and were integrated in a GIS environment to obtain final vulnerability map. This was intersected with settlement density map to categorize the vulnerability levels for three settlement density classes of low, medium and high. The findings reveal a significant land cover change within the riparian zones over a period of twenty years with various levels of human encroachment. It was observed that 26.15% of the riparian area falls under low, 47.68% under medium, 12.98% under high, and 13.19% under very high vulnerability classes. Furthermore, the coverage percentage of high vulnerability class was largest in the low and high settlement density areas of riparian zones accounting for 36.96% and 51.48%, respectively. The majority of the area (74.36%) falls under medium vulnerability class under medium settlement density class. The study provides an opportunity to map riparian zone vulnerability considering predominant indicators of vulnerability that could be mapped using remotely sensed data and application of GIS tools.

Olokeogun, OS; Kumar, M

An indicator based approach for assessing the vulnerability of riparian ecosystem under the influence of urbanization in the Indian Himalayan city, Dehradun

Ecological Indicators

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106796

This study underlines the purpose of developing a vulnerability index to address the issue of outlawed professionals. The Survival Vulnerability Index (SuVI) is a modified form based on two popular indexes, the livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and the climate vulnerability index (CVI). However, the prime objective is to understand the multidimensional poverty and vulnerability of a vocational group engaged with a risky profession on a regional scale. The snake charmer community, who are coping and struggling with the post-banning situation of Wildlife (Protection) Law, amended in 1972 in West Bengal (India), needs institutional attention. The index is a case study composed of household parameters of all the three dimensions of vulnerability (IPCC 2007), i.e., exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Exposure is defined by the effect of amended environmental laws and the effect of globalization, but sensitivity is defined by 'health,' 'food' and 'water', and adaptive capacity is defined by 'socio-demographic profile,' 'livelihood strategies and skills,' and 'social network.' Hence, after judiciary review and peering of coherent literature, the customized parameters are incorporated. Due to the unavailability of secondary data on snake charmers, firsthand data on desired sub-components are collected through random sampling of 1115 households from 65 villages across the state. The differential vulnerabilities are compared through the composite index and aggregating sampled data. The results show high vulnerability in socio-demographic profile, health, food and water in DHDR, MDR, RPR, and PUR, and the impact of globalization is higher than the impact of laws in PDR, RPR, BTR, and DHDR. It is also observed that the dimension of sensitivity is higher in all the small-scale regions, and which is a severe concern for mitigating the problem. Inter-regional comparison of LVI and CVI approaches both validate each other. This pragmatic SuVI may be used to examine the vulnerability of any outlawed occupational group and or having potential coping and welfare policy or program, where data-scant is a problem and by cross-counting various anticipated baseline scenarios. The outcome precisely points to ardent mitigation and real welfare of snake charmers through redesigned policy and program.

Halder, S

A survival vulnerability index (SuVI) for an outlawed vocation: empirical evidence from snake charmer community, West Bengal

Environment Development And Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-021-01937-5

Purpose The plethora of contributions to social learning has resulted in a wide range of interpretations, meanings and applications of social learning, both within and across disciplines. However, advancing the concept and using social learning methods and tools in areas like disaster-shocks requires interdisciplinary consolidation of understandings. In this context, the primary focus of this paper is on the contributions of social learning to disaster risk reduction (DRR). Design/methodology/approach By applying a three-round policy Delphi process involving 18 purposefully selected scholars and expert-practitioners, the authors collected data on the meanings of social learning for two groups of professionals, DRR and social-ecological resilience. The survey instruments included questions relating to the identification of the core elements of social learning and the prospects for enhancing social-ecological resilience. Findings The results revealed strong agreement that (1) the core elements of social learning indicate a collective, iterative and collaborative process that involves sharing/networking, changes in attitudes and knowledge and inclusivity; (2) social learning from disasters is unique; and (3) linkages between disciplines can be built by promoting interdisciplinarity, networks and knowledge platforms; collaboration and coordination at all levels; and teaching and practicing trust and respect. Social learning is useful in preparing for and responding to specific disaster events through communication; sharing experience, ideas and resources; creating synergies for collective action and promoting resilience. Research limitations/implications The policy Delphi process involved a limited number of participants to control the quality of the data. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this paper is the first of its kind to identify the core elements of social learning, specifically, in the disaster-shock context. It also makes significant contributions to the interdisciplinary integration issues. Practical implications The practical implications of this study are related to pre-disaster planning and mitigation through the application of social learning on disaster-shocks. Social implications The social implications of this study are related to valuing social learning for the improvement of disaster planning, management, and policy formulation and implementation in reducing disaster risks. Originality/value The study provides a consensus view on the core elements of social learning and its role in DRR and resilience building. Relevant to all stages of DRR, social learning is best characterized as a collective, iterative and collaborative process. It can be promoted by enhancing networking and interdisciplinarity.

Haque, CE; Berkes, F; Fernández-Llamazares, A; Ross, H; Chapin, FS; Doberstein, B; Reed, MG; Agrawal, N; Nayak, PK; Etkin, D; Doré, M; Hutton, D

Social learning for enhancing social-ecological resilience to disaster-shocks: a policy Delphi approach

Disaster Prevention And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/DPM-03-2021-0079

Objectives: Since the natural ecology and geographical environment are the basis for the formation of local architecture, based on the adaptability analysis, the article analyzes the natural ecology and geographical environment that affect the creation of regional local architecture, and analyzes the adaptability of traditional architecture to natural ecology and the impact of traditional culture. Methods: The summary of the response methods is to try to find the substantive connotation of vernacular architecture in order to provide basic theoretical support for contemporary vernacular architecture creation. At the same time, combined with the characteristics of the times of the contemporary area, it proposes a typical site design adaptability analysis, a suitability climate adaptability analysis and a construction adaptability analysis returning to the local culture. And for the coastal cultural and historical background of the region, the development of regional ancient towns is discussed, and the location of regional coastal ancient towns is analyzed for the coastal environment. Results: The final selected model was a weighted average based on Akaike weights of 71 logistic candidate models that included all the variables in these 71 candidate models. The importance weights of variables are the criteria for assessing the impact and contribution rate of environmental factors on survival and dispersal, and are the sum of the Akaike weights of all candidate models containing a given predictor variable. The connection between households basically uses the scattered water of the building, does not occupy the foundation, and basically does not damage the landform. The entrance to the building is determined by the terrain on the one hand, and the road on the other, and is generally set on one side of the road. Finally, the coastal environmental background and historical and cultural background of regional ancient towns are summarized, and the research roughly explores the region. Conclusions: At the end of the article, through the interpretation of actual cases, it provides certain evidence and explanations for adaptability analysis, and expresses the design ideas of comprehensive trade-offs in the process of adaptability analysis, in order to provide contemporary local architectural design for the extensive urban and rural construction in the region with theories and adaptability analysis. (c) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of King Saud University. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Mao, TB; Li, Q

Research on the relationship between the formation of local construction culture and geographical environment based on adaptability analysis

Journal Of King Saud University Science

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jksus.2022.102387

Bangladesh is a land of natural calamities. Due to locational disadvantages, especially being situated at the tip of the funnel-shaped Bay of Bengal on the south and at the foot of Himalayas on the north, every year it experiences a number of different types of natural calamities, such as flood, cyclone, river bank erosion, drought etc. As a result of climate change events, an increasing trend in frequency has been observed in recent time. Spatial distribution of natural calamities portraits northern part as prone to flood, western part to drought, eastern part (basically hilly region) to flash flood and southern part to cyclone. The Southern part, especially the coastal belt of the country is the worst affected area to cyclones and their ultimate effects. Among these cyclones, Aila was a severe one that tore through the area in 2009 affecting the livelihood of the inhabitants. This study is an effort to discuss the inhabitants' vulnerability and their adaptation strategies to economic changes caused by Aila, such as occupation, income, expenditure capacity, savings, housing structures, general and agricultural land use etc. For the study required data has been collected from both primary and secondary sources. Primary data have been collected through questionnaire survey and group discussion while secondary data, especially satellite images have been collected from Google Earth. Then different softwares like SPSS have been used for analysis and graphic presentation of the collected primary data, and ERDAS IMAGINE and ArcGIS have been used for mapping analysis and presentation. The research findings indicate that because of the cyclone Aila, economy of the area has taken downturn. Most of the people were engaged in agriculture allied activities, but after Aila, agricultural land had been converted into aquaculture. Consequently, people have switched to occupations with lesser earnings, such as daily labour, rickshaw puller, brick field worker etc. As a result, people had to reduce all sorts of daily consumptions to cope up with the changing situation. The Governmental Organisations and the Non-Governmental Organisations extended little help to rebuild houses, embankment, road, reforestation etc. but not towards any income generates activities. So, the livelihood of the people is still vulnerable in terms of economy, and attention of the responsible authorities needs to be drawn to create income generating activities to recover the vulnerable situation.

Rahman, MM; Hossain, MA; Ali, MR; Ahmed, Z; Islam, AHMH

Assessing vulnerability and adaptation strategy of the cyclone affected coastal area of Bangladesh

Geoenvironmental Disasters

https://doi.org/10.1186/s40677-022-00209-2

Purpose It might seem plausible to argue that effective monitoring of disaster data loss can help achieve progress in reporting to the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) and the global targets of sustainable development goals and associated indicators. Nevertheless, with the lack of climate change and disaster data losses in the Arab region, the integration of risks associated with socio-economic dimensions at the wider scale of displacement is important to shape a regional understanding of resilience terminology and provides the means of translating it. The purpose of this paper is to identify the means of redefining Resilience in the Arab region context of climate change, conflict and displacement in association with the theoretical principles of the fragile city. Design/methodology/approach In an attempt to achieve the SFDRR target (E) substantially increase the number of countries with national and local DRR strategies by 2020, this study investigates the use of the (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction) disaster resilience scorecard as a guiding principle for city-to-city (C2C) resilience-building knowledge exchange between Amman (Jordan) and Khartoum (Sudan). Findings Facing similar urban challenges against disaster and violent conflict-protracted displacement, the study findings indicate that the C2C exchange program was useful in understanding the cities' urban risk profiles, promoting dialogue among local governments and creating a culture of learning organizations for knowledge sharing on DRR governance and beyond. However, the applied resilience assessments overlooked the qualitative and socio-ecological understanding of climate change risk and human security principles among the most vulnerable groups of refugees and internally displaced persons in fragile settings. This is recommended to be integrated into building coherence for resilience across the 2015-2030 Global Agendas reporting and monitoring mechanisms, leaving no one behind. Originality/value The C2C exchange program for Amman and Khartoum was an opportunity for understanding the cities' urban risk profiles, addressing challenges and building decentralized cooperation beyond the cities' institutional boundaries (UN Habitat, 2001), with recommendations for selecting resilience indicators specific to fragile cities to quantitatively measure disaster displaced persons' (DDPs) vulnerabilities and current status of income and social equality, microeconomic security, provision of basic services and social protection while providing qualitative evidence on social cohesion, social networks/social support and local government-community cooperation (Patel and Nosal, 2016).

Eltinay, N

City-to-city exchange: redefining resilience in the Arab region

International Journal Of Disaster Resilience In The Built Environment

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDRBE-05-2019-0028

Rapid population growth, urbanization, and concentration of valuable assets and strategic infrastructure in coastal regions make coastal inundation, flooding, and storm surge national problems for many countries, including theUnited States of America (USA). Enhancing coastal resilience is a complex problem and involves an integrated risk management approach, entailing both structural protection as well as other risk reduction strategies (e.g., building codes and ecosystem preservation). The former is an increasingly recognized mitigation option for densely populated areas and industrial hubs. Fully justifying benefits of costly flood defense structures is crucial, particularly when lack of funding and other institutional barriers make such projects easy targets for omission from or cuts to a budget. Justification usually requires a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis. This paper explores the economic feasibility of a coastal barrier, i.e., coastal spine, as a potential storm surge mitigation strategy to protect the Houston-Galveston metropolitan area of Texas, one of the most flood-prone and economically important regions in the USA. We provide an assessment of residential and chemical manufacturing plant and refinery exposure to multiple synthetic hurricane storm surge events by comparing losses with and without a coastal spine. While under all scenarios, benefits exceed engineering costs of a spine, our results indicate that the project feasibility largely hinges on accounting for industrial losses and resultant indirect and induced effects. As many regions and industrial hubs globally are designing adaptation and mitigation strategies to combat the consequences of extreme events, structural solution to surge mitigation maybe one of the few mitigation options for them. Unlike population and residential structures that can retreat and insure, these options are not viable for industrial plants that are resource-based. However, expertise and knowledge pertinent to surge barrier systems are relatively scarce as there are only handful of barriers around the world and they are all unique in engineering designs. As storm surge is becoming a threat for many coastal urban centers, one of the recommendations is to consolidate knowledge base and research across countries in order to foster knowledge exchange internationally. This will help identify concerns associated with existing barrier systems, pragmatic ways to improve them and will also aid the investment decision, engineering designs, and operational aspects of barriers in other parts of the world. Furthermore, forming regional research collaborations with developing countries at risk of storm surge and the sea level rise is vital to further facilitate knowledge spillover and exchange of expertise.

Davlasheridze, M; Atoba, KO; Brody, S; Highfield, W; Merrell, W; Ebersole, B; Purdue, A; Gilmer, RW

Economic impacts of storm surge and the cost-benefit analysis of a coastal spine as the surge mitigation strategy in Houston-Galveston area in the USA

Mitigation And Adaptation Strategies For Global Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-018-9814-z

Purpose-Higher education system has a critical role to play in educating environmentally aware and participant citizens about global climate change (CC). And, as shown by the 21st Conference of the Parties of the UN Convention on Climate Change-COP 21, held in Paris in December 2015, there is still a path to be followed regarding the role played by universities in the negotiations and in influencing decision-making on a matter of such global importance. The purpose of this first study conducted within Portuguese (Europe), Mexican (Spanish-speaking North America University) and Mozambican (Africa) universities is to investigate higher education system students' perceptions on CC. Design/methodology/approach-The data were collected through a questionnaire aiming at characterising students from the socio-demography, and from their perceptions, motivations, attitudes and knowledge relating to the topic of CC. Statistical analysis was used to compare and characterise the three national groups under study. Findings-This study did not show significant perception differences among the analysed subsamples, although there was a tendency for Mexican students to express lesser belief that CC was happening, and for Mozambicans to show a greater belief in CC issues and motivation to mitigate its effects which may be related to the specifics contexts. The results show that relevant differences among nationalities mostly concerned the magnitude of choices (e.g. most respondents of each nationality expressed interest in CC issues, but the magnitude of this expression differed according to nationality). The principal component analysis (second and third components) clearly embodied nationality profiles (discussed in the context of different cultures, educational structures and CC impacts). Research limitations/implications-Further research is warranted to understand the integration of CC into higher education curriculum to improve and target educational efforts to suit students' needs. Practical implications-How CC perceptions vary cross-nationally and how research studies that examine the integration of CC into higher education curriculum are areas for which more research is needed. Originality/value-The results highlight the importance of socio-cultural dimensions of each country in relation to the understanding or perception of CC issues, namely, in what concerns aspects related with gender roles, age, active learning and citizenship. This study's data evidenced that despite the surveyed students being familiarized with CC phenomena, this knowledge does not translate necessarily into concrete mitigation practices and behaviours.

Morgado, F; Bacelar-Nicolau, P; von Osten, JR; Santos, P; Bacelar-Nicolau, L; Farooq, H; Alves, F; Soares, AMVM; Azeiteiro, UM

Assessing university student perceptions and comprehension of climate change (Portugal, Mexico and Mozambique)

International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-08-2016-0123

As resilience continues its rise to top of the international policy agenda, development funders and practitioners are under mounting pressure to ensure that investments in resilience-building are effective and targeted at those most in need. It is here that robust resilience measurement can make valuable contributions: identifying hotspots; understanding drivers; and inferring impact. To date, resilience measurement has been dominated by objectively-oriented approaches. These rely on external definitions of resilience (often informed by outside 'experts', literature reviews or resilience practitioners) and measured through observation or external verification. More recently, the potential for subjective approaches has been proposed. These take a contrasting approach, soliciting people's judgements of what resilience means to them, and getting them to self-evaluate their own resilience. While both approaches have their strength and weaknesses, little is known about how objective and subjective modes of resilience measurement compare. To shed light on this relationship, we provide like-for-like comparisons of these two approaches using a regionally representative household survey of 2308 households in Northern Uganda. In so doing, we introduce a new measurement approach named the Subjective self-Evaluated Resilience Score (SERS). Outcomes from SERS are directly compared with an objectively-evaluated approach, the Resilience Index Measurement Analysis (RIMA), widely used by resilience practitioners. Findings from the survey suggest a moderate correlation between objectively- and subjectively-evaluated resilience modules. More importantly, both approaches share similar associations with many key socio-economic drivers of resilience. However, there are notable differences between the two. In some case, the approaches differ entirely regarding contributions of important traits, including coping strategies, levels of education and exposure to prior shocks. Our results highlight the need for resilience evaluators to consider a diversity of knowledge sources and seek greater use of evidence in indicator selection. We also investigate the properties of the SERS module itself. We find that characterisations of resilience that mimic various commonly-used frameworks produce similar resilience outcomes, suggesting that debates over the exact composition of resilience-characteristics may matter little. In addition, shorter SERS modules match the performance of the full set of SERS questions, allowing for quicker administration and reduced survey burden. Lastly, we call for evaluators to consider the strengths and weaknesses of subjective and objective measurement approaches, including options for combining both formats. (C) 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Jones, L; d'Errico, M

Whose resilience matters? Like-for-like comparison of objective and subjective evaluations of resilience

World Development

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104632

The Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) is an important part of China's two screens and three belts strategic ecological security barrier, and the urban agglomeration along the YREB is the core of its economic development. However, it has suffered the most from frequent and severe flood disasters that were affected by torrential rains, urbanization, and human activities, with climate change intensifying the potential occurrence of flood disasters in this area. Based on the CMIP6 climate data, this study constructed a flood risk assessment index system and assessed the temporal and spatial changes of the flood risk in the YREB during 2020-2050 under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios, including SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585. From the perspective of temporal change, the results showed that at the grid level, the area of middle-low risk (0.55 < R & LE; 0.65) accounted for 60% of the total area of the YREB and area of high-risk (R > 0.85) fluctuated first and then decreased under the four scenarios, with the area of high-risk being largest in the future under the SSP585 scenario. Specifically, at the city level, around half of the cities in the YREB had faced high flood risk and the risk showed an increasing trend during 2020-2050 under the SSP370 scenario. From the perspective of spatial change, the flood risk of the YREB presented a spatial pattern of low in the west and high in the east, with high risk mainly concentrated in the cities in the lower reaches of the YREB and also Chongqing and Sichuan. Compared with SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios, it showed that high-risk areas were larger under high emission scenarios SSP370 and SSP585, which were mostly concentrated in middle and lower reaches of the YREB and the cities of Chongqing and Chengdu during 2020-2050. Especially, flood risk showed an increasing trend in the middle and lower reaches of the YREB during 2020-2050, and the regions with high vulnerability would have greater socio-economic losses. The finding would provide scientific support for resilience improvement, risk reduction and management, and formulating policies to achieve green and sustainable development in the YREB.

Peng, L; Li, ZH

Ensemble Flood Risk Assessment in the Yangtze River Economic Belt under CMIP6 SSP-RCP Scenarios

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su132112097

BackgroundClimate change in Nepal has posed a considerable challenge to agricultural productivity and has threatened food and nutritional security at multiple levels. This study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on national food production and food and nutritional security as well as document issue-based prioritized adaptation options for a resilient food production system. MethodsThis study considers temperature, precipitation, and their anomalies as the key factors affecting food production in Nepal. Nationwide precipitation trends along with their association with the annual production of major cereal crops in Nepal were assessed using data from the last three decades (1990-2018). The annual productions of the major cereal crops were summed and normalized to calculate the production index scores in the districts. Scores were plotted and visualized into maps using the Geographical Information System. In three ecological regions, the distribution of flood and extreme rainfall events and cases of malnutrition from 2005 to 2018 were plotted. The effects of climate change and highest priority adaptation options at the district level were documented through a review of national policies and literature studies and qualitative research based on Focus Group Discussions (FGDs). ResultsBetween 1990 and 2018, the overall average production of major cereal crops in Nepal was increased by around 2,245 MT annually. In the district level index analysis, the highest production score was found for Jhapa and Morang while the lowest production score was found for Humla. Cases of malnutrition in some districts coincided with flood and heavy rainfall events, indicating that climate change and extreme climatic events have a role to play in food production and security. Growing drought-tolerant crops, changes in crop cycle, riverbed farming practices, developing short-term strategies, such as contingency crop planning, changing planting dates, planting short duration varieties, schemes evacuation, and long-term strategies, such as encouraging out-migration of population to safer locations, resettlement programs with transformative livelihood options, and sustainable agricultural practices were found to be key prioritized adaptation measures for a resilient food production system. ConclusionIn Nepal, climate change and the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme climatic events adversely affect the food production system, which has become a serious threat to food and nutritional security. The implementation of evidence-based practices to build a resilient food system specific to climate-vulnerable hotspots at the district and local levels is the nation's current need.

Neupane, N; Paudel, S; Sapkota, R; Joshi, YP; Rijal, Y; Chalise, A

Enhancing the resilience of food production systems for food and nutritional security under climate change in Nepal

Frontiers In Sustainable Food Systems

https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2022.968998

Smallholder farmers in Afghanistan are already facing various risks in agricultural production due to past continuous insurgencies. Climate change is likely to amplify the risk and make them even more vulnerable. The present study attempted to evaluate the vulnerability profiles of smallholder farmers due to climate change using the IPCC Framework. Primary data on relevant parameters for assessing climate change-led social vulnerability in the region were collected by classifying study region into two zones: the plain and the hills of Yangi Qala District in Takhar province, Afghanistan. Thirteen villages from each zone were selected at random, and face-to-face interviews were conducted with ten randomly selected households in each of the selected villages in both zones based on a pre-tested questionnaire. The questionnaire contained indicators for all three dimensions of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The collected data were subjected to a proposed vulnerability index, after estimating the indices of the three dimensions of vulnerability. The Iyenger and Sudershan weighting method was used to assess the contribution of each vulnerability dimension. Vulnerability was classified according to different categories based on beta distribution to evaluate the villages' vulnerability status. The results showed that about 23% of all 26 sampled villages in both zones had low exposure, 26% moderate exposure and 51% high exposure to climate-change hazards and extreme weather events. High sensitivity was observed in 51%, moderate sensitivity in 7%, and low sensitivity in 42% of villages. High adaptive capacity to climate change was observed in 38% of villages, 19% were moderately adaptive and 42% showed a low adaptive capacity. High vulnerability was observed in 50% of villages, 4% were moderately vulnerable, and 46% had low vulnerability. A high proportion of smallholder farmers in the hilly zone in the sampled district were highly vulnerable, exposed and sensitive with a low adaptive capacity to climate change compared to the plain zone. The high vulnerability in the hilly zone was attributed to limited resources with a low adjustment capability to counter the disturbances, especially in crop cultivation, in response to climate change. A handful of low-cost and local approaches such as improving farmer extension services, introducing small-scale local infrastructure projects, reinforcing informal safety nets and protecting natural ecosystems could be viable cost-effective options that would also be sustainable given their low recurring costs and the limited maintenance required.

Omerkhil, N; Chand, T; Valente, D; Alatalo, JM; Pandey, R

Climate change vulnerability and adaptation strategies for smallholder farmers in Yangi Qala District, Takhar, Afghanistan

Ecological Indicators

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.105863

Understanding how climate change will affect global health is a defining challenge of this century. This is predicated, however, on our ability to combine climate and health data to investigate the ways in which variations in climate, weather, and health outcomes interact. There is growing evidence to support the value of place- and community-based monitoring and surveillance efforts, which can contribute to improving both the quality and equity of data collection needed to investigate and understand the impacts of climate change on health. The inclusion of multiple and diverse knowledge systems in climate-health surveillance presents many benefits, as well as challenges. We conducted a systematic review, synthesis, and confidence assessment of the published literature on integrated monitoring and surveillance systems for climate change and public health. We examined the inclusion of diverse knowledge systems in climate-health literature, focusing on: (1) analytical framing of integrated monitoring and surveillance system processes; (2) key contributions of Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge systems to integrated monitoring and surveillance systems processes; and (3) patterns of inclusion within these processes. In total, 24 studies met the inclusion criteria and were included for data extraction, appraisal, and analysis. Our findings indicate that the inclusion of diverse knowledge systems contributes to integrated climate-health monitoring and surveillance systems across multiple processes of detection, attribution, and action. These contributions include: the definition of meaningful problems; the collection of more responsive data; the reduction of selection and source biases; the processing and interpretation of more comprehensive datasets; the reduction of scale dependent biases; the development of multi-scale policy; long-term future planning; immediate decision making and prioritization of key issues; as well as creating effective knowledge-information-action pathways. The value of our findings and this review is to demonstrate how neither scientific, Indigenous, nor local knowledge systems alone will be able to contribute the breadth and depth of information necessary to detect, attribute, and inform action along pathways of climate-health impact. Rather, it is the divergence or discordance between the methodologies and evidences of different knowledge systems that can contribute uniquely to this understanding. We critically discuss the possibility of what we, mainly local communities and experts, stand to lose if these processes of inclusion are not equitable. We explore how to shift the existing patterns of inclusion into balance by ensuring the equity of contributions and justice of inclusion in these integrated monitoring and surveillance system processes.

van Bavel, B; Ford, LB; Harper, SL; Ford, J; Elsey, H; Lwasa, S; King, R

Contributions of scale: what we stand to gain from Indigenous and local inclusion in climate and health monitoring and surveillance systems

Environmental Research Letters

https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab875e

Social and cognitive psychology has shown that people's intuition and emotion may exert great influence on their decision-making. However, within the context of climate change, there is paucity of literature in the developing countries including the Caribbean as many of these studies have been focused mostly in developed countries. This paper provides some ground-breaking work on human behaviour as it relates to perception and response to risks associated with climate change and climatic variability in the rural communities of Sandy Bay, Owia and Fancy, three remote communities in northeastern St. Vincent which are also home to the indigenous Caribs. A mixed methods approach which include a total of 311 questionnaires, interviews and focus groups discussion was undertaken. The study looked at how households perceived their own risk in terms of their location and how it influences their behaviour. It further examines households' knowledge and perception of the climate change phenomenon and their responses to climate-related events. The results show that while majority of respondents did not feel they were located in risky areas, a noteworthy percentage did. Statistical significant relationships were observed when the data was compared across communities, sex and ownership of homes. For example, females and persons living in family homes generally felt more at risk. The results also show that respondents knew little of climate change and how it may exacerbate climate-related events such as drought and hurricane. Still, they were conscious of their local context and reported a change in the climate of which increased temperature was a strong predictor. An investigation of responses or the decision to respond to some of the impacts that they have experienced on account of climate change and climatic variability however led to the development of different types of perceptions which include religious, ill informed, experienced-based and knowledge-based perceptions. It is argued here that these forms of perception may result in non-adaptive, proactive or reactive adaptive behaviour. The research findings lead to the emergence of a number of recommendations which include public awareness, education and training on the risk and impacts of climate change and climate-related events on both the national and local level, improving public access to vital climate-related information and other resources and incorporating risk perceptions, knowledge, attitudes and livelihood strategies in the development of their policy, strategies and programmes to mitigate the impact of climate-related events. It also calls for the expansion of future research on risk perception within Caribbean communities.

Smith, RA

Risk perception and adaptive responses to climate change and climatic variability in northeastern St. Vincent

Journal Of Environmental Studies And Sciences

https://doi.org/10.1007/s13412-017-0456-3

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme events and, consequently, flooding in urban and peri-urban areas. The electrical grid is exposed to an increase in fault probability because its infrastructure was designed considering historical frequencies of extreme events occurred in the past. In this respect, to ensure future energy plans and securing services is of great relevance to determine and evaluate the new zones that may be under risk and its relation to critical infrastructures for such extreme events. In this regard, the electrical distribution system is one of the key critical infrastructures since it feeds the others and with the future plans of zero-emissions (leading to the electrification of transport, buildings, renewable energies, etc.) will become even more important in the short term. In this paper, a novel methodology has been developed, able to analyze flood hazard maps quantifying the probability of failure risk of the electrical assets and their potential impacts using a probabilistic approach. Furthermore, a process to monetize the consequences of the yielded risk was established. The whole method developed was applied to the Barcelona and Bristol case study cities. In this way, two different examples of application have been undertaken by using slightly different inputs. Two main inputs were required: (1) the development of accurate GIS hazard flooding models; and (2) the location of the electrical assets (i.e., Distribution Centers (DCs)). To assess and monetize the flood risk to DCs, a variety of variables and tools were required such as water depths (i.e., flood maps), DCs' areas of influence, fragility curves, and damage curves. The analysis was performed for different return periods under different scenarios, current (Baseline) and future (Business As Usual (BAU)) rainfall conditions. The number of DCs affected was quantified and classified into different categories of risk, where up to 363 were affected in Barcelona and 623 in Bristol. Their risk monetization resulted in maximums of 815,700 (sic) in Barcelona and 643,500 (sic) in Bristol. Finally, the percentage of risk increases when considering future rainfall conditions (i.e., BAU) when calculated, resulting in a 2.38% increase in Barcelona and 3.37% increase in Bristol, which in monetary terms would be an average of a 22% increase.

Sánchez-Muñoz, D; Domínguez-García, JL; Martínez-Gomariz, E; Russo, B; Stevens, J; Pardo, M

Electrical Grid Risk Assessment Against Flooding in Barcelona and Bristol Cities

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su12041527

Background: Damaging Hydrogeological Events (DHEs) are severe weather periods during which floods, landslides, lightning, windstorms, hail or storm surges can harm people. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency/intensity of DHEs and, consequently, the potential harm to people. Method: We investigated the impacts of DHEs on people in Calabria (Italy) over 37 years (1980-2016). Data on 7288 people physically affected by DHEs were gathered from the systematic analysis of regional newspapers and collected in the database named PEOPLE. The damage was codified in three severity levels as follows: fatalities (people who were killed), injured (people who suffered physical harm) and involved (people who were present at the place where an accident occurred but survived and were not harmed). During the study period, we recorded 68 fatalities, 566 injured and 6654 people involved in the events. Results: Males were more frequently killed, injured and involved than females, and females who suffered fatalities were older than males who suffered fatalities, perhaps indicating that younger females tended to be more cautious than same-aged males, while older females showed an intrinsic greater vulnerability. Involved people were younger than injured people and fatalities, suggesting that younger people show greater promptness in reacting to dangerous situations. Floods caused the majority of the fatalities, injured and involved people, followed by landslides. Lightning was the most dangerous phenomenon, and it affected a relatively low number of people, killing 11.63% of them and causing injuries to 37.2%. Fatalities and injuries mainly occurred outdoors, largely along roads. In contrast, people indoors, essentially in public or private buildings, were more frequently involved without suffering harm. Being dragged by water/mud and surrounded by water/mud, respectively, represented the two extremes of dynamic dangerousness. The dragging effect of rapid-flowing water totally or partially obstructed the attempts of people to save their lives. In contrast, people surrounded by steady water/mud encountered difficulties but ultimately could survive. Conclusions: The study outcomes can be used in informational campaigns to increase risk awareness among both administrators and citizens and to improve community resilience, particularly in promoting self-protective behaviors and avoiding the underestimation of hazardous situations.

Petrucci, O; Salvati, P; Aceto, L; Bianchi, C; Pasqua, AA; Rossi, M; Guzzetti, F

The Vulnerability of People to Damaging Hydrogeological Events in the Calabria Region (Southern Italy)

International Journal Of Environmental Research And Public Health

https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15010048

Global flood hazard is gradually increasing. Though it is impossible to avoid them, losses and damage of hazards (e.g., floods, cyclones, and earthquakes) could be efficiently reduced by reducing household vulnerability with appropriate measures. This study aims to quantitatively measure the household vulnerability of flood hazards as a mitigation tool. It also proposed a unique approach to quantify flood-hazard household vulnerability, and shows its application in the flood prone city of Dhaka as an example case. Data were collected from both slum and non-slum areas to cover the entire urban habitat, and to compare their level of flood vulnerability. A total of 300 households were surveyed by structured questionnaire on the basis of five factors (economic, social, environmental, structural. and institutional) of flood vulnerability. The analytical hierarchy process (AMP) was applied to measure individual household vulnerability scores by using the relative weightage of variables and indicators with proper standardisation. Analytical results demonstrated that 63.06% slum and 20.02% non-slum households were highly vulnerable to floods. In addition, this paper determined and assessed responsible factors for household flood vulnerability in Dhaka. For structural vulnerability, results exhibited that 82% of slum households were highly vulnerable, and 95.3% of non-slum households were moderately vulnerable. Socially, 67.3% of slum and 78.7% of non-slum households were moderately and low-vulnerable. The majority of slum and non-slum households (84% and 59.3%, respectively) showed high and moderate vulnerability with respect to economic vulnerability. Moreover, 69.3% of slum and 65.3% of non-slum household institutional vulnerability levels were high. Of slum inhabitants. 63.3% were environmentally at high risk, and 78% of non-slum habitats were in the low-vulnerability category. However. as an effective tool to measure location-specific vulnerability, it is applicable for the measuring vulnerability of other cities in the world with proper customisation. On the basis of this study, future research could be conducted with more factors, variables, and indicators of human vulnerability to natural or artificial hazards/disasters. Future work may provide a better reflection of the vulnerability status of single/multiple hazard(s)/disaster(s).

Huq, ME; Cheng, QM; Altan, O; Shoeb, AZM; Hossain, MA; Sarker, MNI; Saleem, N; Javed, A; Longg, X; Al Dughairi, AA; Rana, MMP; Al Mamun, A; Rahman, MM

Assessing vulnerability for inhabitants of Dhaka City considering flood-hazard exposure

Geofizika

https://doi.org/10.15233/gfz.2020.37.5

Due to special geographical location and climate, the waterlogging has always been one of the most serious hazards in Shanghai. Residences in the inner city are prone to be damaged by waterlogging hazards. This paper describes the risk analysis of rainstorm waterlogging on residences in Shanghai. First, a rainstorm scenario of 50-year return period was simulated with the rainstorm simulation model from Shanghai Flood Risk Information Center. Each residence was ranked according to its degree of exposure indicated by the inundation depth of that residence, and an exposure analysis model was then built. It is found from the exposure analysis that residences in the sub-districts like Linfen Road, Pengpu Village, Gonghe New Village, Hongqiao Road, Xianxia Road, Xinhua Road, and Zhenru Town are at high-exposure level. Whereas residences in other sub-districts like Gaojing Town, Siping Road, Huaihai Road, Yuyuan, Waitan, Caojiadu, Nanjing East Road, etc. are at low-exposure level. Second, given the characteristics of residences in waterlogging, the vulnerability of residences was expressed as the proportion of old-style residences to total residences. The results show that residences in Yuyuan, Xiaodongmen, Waitan, Nanjing East Road, Laoximen, Zhapu Road, North Station, and Tilanqiao are the most vulnerable ones, while there is no vulnerability in Fenglin Road, Kongjiang Road, Liangcheng New Village, Quyang Road, Siping Road, and Xianxia Road due to the absence of old-style residences. Finally, a model has been built from a systematic perspective and then waterlogging risk analysis was quantified by multiplying the exposure value with vulnerability value of residences. The results reveal that Laoximen, Tilanqiao, Dinghai Road, North Station, Tianping Road, Hongmei Road, Hunan Road, and Xiaodongmen are at high-risk level. The systemic risk model is a simple tool that can be used to assess the relative risk of waterlogging in different regions and the results of risk analysis are applicable to prevention and mitigation of waterlogging for Shanghai Municipal Government.

Shi, Y

Risk analysis of rainstorm waterlogging on residences in Shanghai based on scenario simulation

Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0099-3

The frequency of natural disasters is exacerbated by the escalating impacts of climate change with the need for effective relief shelters for victims and displaced individuals. Providing accessible and easy-to-assemble relief shelters is essential in addressing these needs. Due to climate-related challenges and the need for sustainable solutions, the integration of circularity principles in shelter design has become imperative. Circular economy principles promote the efficient use of resources, minimising waste generation and the cost of shelters. Moreover, a considerable number of people usually suffer from homelessness, and an increasing number of families live in slums in every part of the globe. All such people are entitled to be housed in affordable, safe, and appropriate shelters for at least several months after a disaster until they can either rebuild their former houses or find somewhere decent to settle after recovering from the hardship. With the aim of investigating the immediate housing needs of people after a disaster, this paper identifies the essential factors that must be taken into account during shelter design. The paper also presents the prototype developed on the basis of theoretical criteria and the identified factors. The paper's main objectives were to design an easy-to-assemble emergency shelter on circular economy principles, identify critical factors for the circularity and buildability of the shelter, and present a proposed smart shelter acceptance model. The methodology behind the research involves conducting an intensive literature review and creating a novel prototype of a smart disaster relief shelter on the basis of long-run laboratory work and various prototype iterations. The paper presents the details of the novel prototype and shows materials that enhance the circularity of the shelter, according to a unique architectural design strategy of 'reusing' materials to enhance circularity practice in the design and construction sectors. The prototype was developed in a workshop after 6 months of reiterations using plastic water bottles, basic pipes, and other reusable materials. Then, by incorporating the essential factors, a set of criteria was designed that can be used as a guide for the architectural design of shelters. The criteria offered in this paper are useful to evaluate each factor's importance in shelter design. In total, 51 effective factors in designing and constructing such accommodation are presented, clustered into five design strategy groups: social-cultural, physical-technical, environmental, economic, and organisational.

Karimi, R; Shirowzhan, S; Sepasgozar, SME

Architectural Design Criteria Considering the Circular Economy and Buildability for Smart Disaster Relief Shelter Prototyping

Buildings

https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings13071777

This paper investigates the value of weather and climate information at different time scales for decisionmaking in the Tanzanian disaster risk reduction sector using nonmonetary approaches. Interviews and surveys were conducted with institutions responsible for disaster management at national, regional, and district levels. Arange of values were identified, including 1) making informed decisions for disaster-preparedness-, response-, recovery-, and restoration-related activities; 2) tailoring of directives and actions based on sectoral impacts; and 3) identification of hot-spot areas for diseases outbreaks and surplus food production. However, while a number of guidelines, policies, acts, and regulations for disaster risk reduction exist, it is not clear how well they promote the use of weather and climate information across climate-sensitive sectors. Nonetheless, we find that well-structured disaster risk reduction coordination across sectors and institutions from the national to the district level exists, although there is a need for further development of integrated early warning systems and a common platform to evaluate effectiveness and usefulness of weather warnings and advisories. Key challenges to address in increasing the uptake of weather warnings and advisories include language barriers, limited dissemination to rural areas, and limited awareness of forecasts. From the findings of this study, we recommend further quantitative evaluation of the skill of the severe weather warnings issued by the Tanzania Meteorological Authority and an assessment of how decisions and actions are made by recipients of the warnings in the disaster risk reduction sector at different stages in the warning, response, and recovery process. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Information about weather and climate information is important in making informed decisions to reduce socioeconomic losses due to severe weather. This study aims to understand the value of weather and climate information to the Tanzanian disaster risk reduction sector using nonmonetary approaches. We identify several values that could not be realized using the monetary approaches that assist in making effective and informed decision-making to reduce socioeconomic losses, improve livelihoods, and build more disaster-resilient communities. However, constraints such as formatting, accessibility and uncertainty, spatial and temporal resolution, awareness and dissemination, resource availability, and limited technical skills in the interpretation of severe weather impact-based forecasts impede their uptake. Results from this study will improve the content of the severe weather impact-based forecasts and uptake across the disaster risk reduction sector in Tanzania.

Msemo, HE; Taylor, AL; Birch, CE; Dougill, AJ; Hartley, A

The Value of Weather and Climate Information to the Tanzanian Disaster Risk Reduction Sector Using Nonmonetary Approaches

Weather Climate And Society

https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-21-0005.1

Climate variability, in particular, monsoon and temperature variability is an emerging threat for agricultural system across the globe. So far, a number of studies have analyzed the agricultural vulnerability of a region for a particular year, and thereby, the results obtained were biased towards the climatic and agro-ecological factors of that particular year resulting in an imprecise understanding about the contributing factors of vulnerability. Specific reasons of agricultural vulnerability of a region can be clearly identified by analyzing its contributing factors for long-term. In line of this, our study performs the 50-year analysis from the year 1966-2015 to identify the key drivers of agricultural vulnerability at district level for Maharashtra state in India. We used indicator based approach to assess the dynamics of three dimensions of vulnerability i.e., exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity followed by formulating the composite vulnerability index for each district of Maharashtra. Exposure includes monsoon and temperature variability parameters, sensitivity includes land sensitivity parameters i.e., barren land, fragmented land-holdings etc., and adaptive capacity includes parameters of human capital, physical capital, total assets and land productivity. Formulation of vulnerability index is done via i) first, identifying the underlying factors of vulnerability, ii) normalizing the indicators, iii) identifying functional relationship of each indicator with vulnerability, and iv) aggregating the indicators using equal weightage method. We analyzed the reasons for increasing/decreasing trend of vulnerability for each district of Maharashtra. As an example, vulnerability of Ahmednagar district in Nashik region increased by 0.065 units due to decrease in adaptive capacity by 0.06 units and increase in land sensitivity by 0.018 units over past 50 years. Similarly, vulnerability of Chandarpur district in Vidarbha region reduced by 0.025 units by decrease in exposure by 0.017 and sensitivity by 0.007 units along with increase in adaptive capacity by 0.008 units from the year 1966-2015. Findings show that a few districts are vulnerable despite being least exposed to climate variability signifying the contribution of sensitivity and adaptive capacity parameters towards their vulnerability. The results also highlight the intra-regional district level variability in resource distribution, exposure and sensitivity parameters indicating the significance of having a district-wise policy for Maharashtra, India.

Swami, D; Parthasarathy, D

Dynamics of exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity and agricultural vulnerability at district scale for Maharashtra, India

Ecological Indicators

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.107206

Cotton is the second largest crop of Pakistan in terms of area after wheat and is being suffered by multiple shocks over the time due to conventional agricultural management practices, climate change, and market failures. Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) was introduced by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) in 2010, as an innovative cleaner production alternative to conventional farming that aimed at increasing the efficiency of natural resources, resilience, and productivity of agricultural production system, while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The adverse effects of climate change on cotton production at the farm and regional level can be minimized by using CSA practices and technologies. The present study investigated the financial performance and explored the impact of CSA through sustainable water use management on cotton production in Lower Bari Doab Canal (LBDC) irrigation system of Punjab, Pakistan by using Cobb-Douglas production function. The adopters of CSA in cotton cultivation were identified by conducting six focus group discussions. Data were collected through well-structured questionnaire from 133 adopters of CSA and 65 conventional cotton growers for the cropping season 2016-2017. It was found that water-smart (raising crops on bed, laser land levelling, conjunctive use of water and drainage management), energy-smart (minimum tillage), carbon-smart (less use of chemicals) and knowledge-smart (crop rotation and improved varieties i.e., tolerant to drought, flood and heat/cold stresses) practices and technologies of CSA were adopted by the cotton farmers in the study area. Most of the farmers were of the view that they are adopting CSA practices and technologies due to the limited supply of canal water, climate change, drought-prone, massive groundwater extraction, rapidly declining groundwater table and increasing soil salinity over the time. Results revealed that uniform germination, higher yield and financial returns, the concentration of inputs and increase in resource use efficiency are the main advantages of CSA. The econometric analysis showed that implementation of CSA practices and technologies as judicious use of water and fertilizer, groundwater quality, access to extension services, and appropriate method and time of picking have a significant impact on the gross value of cotton product (GVP). The findings of the study would be helpful for policy makers to formulate policies that can minimize farmer's financial burden to adopt CSA technologies and implement for scaling out in Punjab and beyond.

Imran, MA; Ali, A; Ashfaq, M; Hassan, S; Culas, R; Ma, CB

Impact of Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) Practices on Cotton Production and Livelihood of Farmers in Punjab, Pakistan

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su10062101

Literature shows that much research has been conducted on the co-production of climate knowledge, but it has neither established a standardized and replicable model for the co-production process nor the emergent learning patterns as collaborators transition from the disciplinary comfort-zone (disciplinary and practice biases) to the transdisciplinary third-space. This study combines algorithmic simulation modelling and case study lessons from Learning Labs under a 4-year (2016-2019) climate change management project called Future Resilience of African CiTies and Lands in the City of Blantyre in Malawi. The study fills the research gap outlined above by applying a systems-approach to replicate the research process, and a Markov process to simulate the learning patterns. Results of the study make a number of contributions to knowledge. First, there are four distinct evolutionally stages when transitioning from the disciplinary comfort-zone to the transdisciplinary third-space, namely: Shock and resistance to change; experimenting and exploring; acceptance; and integration into the third-space. These stages are marked by state probabilities of the subsequent stages relative to the initial (disciplinary comfort-zone) state. A complete transition to the third-space is marked by probabilities greater than one, which is a system amplification, and it signifies that there has been a significant increase in learning among collaborating partners during the learning process. Second, a four-step decision support tool has been developed to rank the plausibility of decisions, which is very hard to achieve in practice. The tool characterizes decision determinants (policy actors, evidence and knowledge, and context), expands the determinants, checks what supports the decision, and then rates decisions on an ordinal scale of ten in terms of how knowledge producers and users support them. Third, for a successful transdisciplinary knowledge co-production, researchers should elucidate three system-archetypes (leverage points), namely: Salient features for successful co-production, determinant of support from collaborators, and knowledge co-production challenges. It is envisioned that academics, researchers, and policy makers will find the results useful in modelling and replicating the co-production process in a methodical and systemic way while solving complex climate resilience development problems in dynamic, socio-technical systems, as well as in sustainably mainstreaming the knowledge co-produced in policies and plans.

Mkandawire, B; Thole, B; Mamiwa, D; Mlowa, T; McClure, A; Kavonic, J; Jack, C

Application of Systems-Approach in Modelling Complex City-Scale Transdisciplinary Knowledge Co-Production Process and Learning Patterns for Climate Resilience

Systems

https://doi.org/10.3390/systems9010007

Purpose This paper aims to present a case study-based approach to identify resource-poor communities with limited abilities to cope with the adverse effects of climate change. The study area is the Nkonkobe Local Municipality, in the Eastern Cape which is one of South Africa's provinces ranked as being extremely vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change because of high incidences of poverty and limited access to public services such as water and education. Although adaptive capacity and vulnerability assessments help to guide policy formulation and implementation by identifying communities with low coping capacities, policy implementers often find it difficult to fully exploit the utility of these assessments because of difficulties in identifying vulnerable communities. The paper attempts to bridge this gap by providing a user-friendly, replicable, practically implementable and adaptable methodology that can be used to cost-effectively and timeously identify vulnerable communities with low coping capacities. Design/methodology/approach A geostatistical approach was used to assess and evaluate adaptive capacities of resource-poor communities in the Nkonkobe Local Municipality. The geospatial component of this approach consisted of a multi-step Geographical Information Systems (GIS) based technique that was improvised to map adaptive capacities of different communities. The statistical component used demographic indicators comprising literacy levels, income levels, population age profiles and access to water to run automated summation and ranking of indicator scores in ArcGIS 10.2 to produce maps that show spatial locations of communities with varying levels of adaptive capacities on a scale ranging from low, medium to high. Findings The analysis identified 14 villages with low adaptive capacities from a total of 180 villages in the Nkonkobe Local Municipality. This finding is important because it suggests that our methodology can be effectively used to objectively identify communities that are vulnerable to climate change. Social implications The paper presents a tool that could be used for targeting assistance to climate change vulnerable communities. The methodology proposed is of general applicability in guiding public policy interventions aimed at reaching, protecting and uplifting socio-economically disadvantaged populations in both rural and urban settings. Originality/value The approach's ability to identify vulnerable communities is useful because it aids the identification of resource-poor communities that deserve priority consideration when planning adaptation action plans to deliver support and assistance to those least capable of effectively coping with the adverse effects of climate change induced vulnerabilities.

Chari, MM; Hamandawana, H; Zhou, L

Using geostatistical techniques to map adaptive capacities of resource-poor communities to climate change: A case study of Nkonkobe Local Municipality, Eastern Cape Province, South Africa

International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-03-2017-0071

Introduction This protocol will guide and explain the working process of a systematic scoping review on vulnerability assessment tools in the field of infectious disease outbreaks and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) crises. The scoping review will appraise existing tools or methodologies to identify local level vulnerabilities in the context of infectious disease outbreaks and AMR. Due to this focus on infectious threats and AMR, the review also considers articles using a 'One Health' approach to assess the vulnerability of individuals, groups and practices in human-animal-environment interactions. Given the broad nature of vulnerability, we aim to allocate studies discerning the process of identifying vulnerable or at-risk groups during a crisis, instead of studies taking vulnerability only as a starting point. Because considerable research has been conducted on vulnerability, disasters and climate change, we will also assemble tools developed from these fields. To our knowledge, this is the first planned systematic scoping review of vulnerability assessment tools for disease outbreaks and AMR, taking into account practices at the human-animal-environment interface that can lead to increased risk of exposure of individuals to infections, pathogen spillovers or epidemics. Methods and analysis To develop the protocol, we used the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocols checklist (PRISMA-P 2015) in compliance with the PRISMA Extension for Scoping Reviews Explanation and Elaboration. With the assistance of an experienced research librarian, we developed the search strategy, which targeted the following databases: Medline, Global Health database, Web of Science and Embase. A second strategy was developed for Epistemonikos, African Journals Online and Global Index Medicus because these databases do not provide the infrastructure for an advanced search. We consider studies published between 1978 and 2019 and include articles, book chapters, websites and grey literature from selected non-governmental organisations and non-profit organisations working in the health field. We contact them directly regarding whether they are working with or have developed a vulnerability assessment tool. To address the dynamic nature of our investigation, we develop a flow diagram which we continually update to reflect the selection process. Two reviewers (MJ and LL) independently screen the literature and resolve conflicts through discussion rounds. Data extraction will be conducted by four researchers (MJ, LL, EJ and RK) through inductive and deductive coding. Extracted data will be systematically compared and divergences highlighted.

Jeleff, M; Lehner, L; Giles-Vernick, T; Dückers, MLA; Napier, AD; Jirovsky, E; Kutalek, R

Vulnerability assessment tools for infectious threats and antimicrobial resistance: a scoping review protocol

Bmj Open

https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2019-031944

Flood resilience policy and planning are highly localized in the United States (US) and many parts of the world, with local governments responsible for a wide range of land use and infrastructure investment decisions that drive flood risk and response. However, many local governments lack the resources to plan for and adapt to increased flooding without external support. State governments can help by promulgating rules and providing guidance and resources that make flood resilience planning at the local level easier, more likely, and more equitable. However, very little is known about the programmes and policies US states can and do develop to support local flood resilience, how much these programmes and policies vary between states, and the extent to which states are going beyond required or standard practice. In this study, we develop an evaluation framework for state flood policies and programmes that captures the types of programmes and policies used by states in the US, distinguishing between required or standard practices and more advanced approaches. We use a numeric scoring system to operationalize four distinct categories of state policy: information provision, planning guidance, regulations and standards, and funding and financing. The scoring system accounts for whether states incorporate climate change and social equity into their resources. We then apply the framework and scoring system to the eight states of the Great Lakes region: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Our findings demonstrate both the consistencies and variation in state-level flood management programmes and policies, identify policy leaders in the region, and reveal areas where states can prioritize further investment and policy development for better flood risk management. The study provides an evaluation framework for scholars and practitioners of subnational flood policies and programmes, and descriptive insights into the status of state-level flood resilience policy and planning in the Great Lakes region.Key policy insightsEvaluations of state and other subnational government support for local flood resilience should centre on information provision, planning guidance, setting regulations and standards, and providing funding and financing to support better planning and implementation of relevant policies.In the Great Lakes region of the US there is wide variation between states in their adoption of standard and more advanced strategies for supporting local flood resilience, and the emphasis they give to justice and equity.States that have adopted more advanced strategies can serve as an important resource for learning and sharing of experience across localities or subnational regions.

Hughes, S; Resor, C; Newberry, H

State policy and local resilience: evaluating state policies for flood resilience in the Great Lakes region of the United States

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2023.2242309

This study aims to clarify the vulnerability characteristics of the ecological-economic-social system of oasis city clusters in arid zones, promote the deepening of research on the sustainable development of urban clusters, and provide crucial practical reference significance for solving the series of problems brought about by urbanization. This article takes the arid zone oasis city cluster, the Urumqi-Changji-Shihezi urban agglomeration, as the research object and constructs an indicator system from three dimensions of ecological environment, regional economic, and social development, and adopts the comprehensive index method, GeoDetector, the GM(1, 1) gray prediction model, and other methods to study the vulnerability pattern and spatial and temporal changes of the urban cluster from 2009 to 2018. The results show that (1) from 2009 to 2018, the change in the integrated ecological-economic-social system vulnerability index of the Urumqi-Changji-Shihezi urban agglomeration shows a general downward trend, followed by significant differences in the vulnerability of each dimension, with an average vulnerability index of 1.8846, 1.6377, and 0.9831 for the social vulnerability, regional economic, and ecological environment dimensions, respectively; (2) the evolution of the spatial pattern of changes in the vulnerability index of different systems in each region of the Urumqi-Changji-Shihezi urban agglomeration tends to change from large to slight spatial differences, in which the social and ecological environmental vulnerability changes are more prominent in addition to the vulnerability changes of the regional economy; (3) parkland area per capita, arable land area per capita, GDP per capita, social fixed asset investment, population density, and urban road area per capita are the main drivers of decreasing vulnerability of ecological-economic-social systems in urban agglomerations; (4) by predicting and calculating the vulnerability index of each region of the ecological-economic-social system of urban agglomerations, it is found that the vulnerability index of urban agglomerations will show a decreasing trend from 2009 to 2018, and the difference of the vulnerability index between systems will narrow; (5) finally, targeted countermeasures and suggestions to reduce the vulnerability of ecological-economic-social systems are proposed to provide scientific references for the sustainable development of arid oasis cities.

Zhang, XF; Simayi, Z; Yang, ST; Mamitimin, YSYJ; Shen, F; Zhang, YY

Vulnerability Assessment of Ecological-Economic-Social Systems in Urban Agglomerations in Arid Regions-A Case Study of Urumqi-Changji-Shihezi Urban Agglomeration

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su15065414

CONTEXT: Dairy farmers are affected by climate change (CC). To reduce the negative effects of CC, farmers need to take numerous adaptive measures. The ability to adapt is context-specific and there is a dearth of research on the adaptation and adaptive capacity (AC) of dairy farmers in village tank cascade systems (VTCS).OBJECTIVE: The study investigates dairy farmers' perception of CC, their AC, adaptation, and the social and institutional drivers of AC and adaptation in the two selected VTCS in Sri Lanka. The knowledge of this is vital in planning specific interventions to enhance the climate resilience of farmers.METHODS: The level of CC adaptation and AC was measured using the Activity-based Adaptation Index and Adaptive Capacity Index. Using an ordered logistic regression model, the determinants of the CC adaptation were examined. Social dimensions of AC are studied by comparing AC scores across social groups differentiated by income and gender. Data were collected from 200 dairy farmers in two VTCS in the Anuradhapura District, North Central Province of Sri Lanka, where dairy farming is predominantly practiced. Pre-tested structured question-naires were used for data collection.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: Pasture shortage, reduction in milk yield, and growth retardation of animals are reported as perceived CC effects by a majority of dairy farmers. The adaptation strategies mostly implemented by dairy farmers are aimed at reducing the effects of CC on animal physiology. A lesser number of farmers implement adaptation strategies that address pasture shortages. Farmer's perception of CC, socioeconomic characteristics and resource endowment determine the level of adaptation, while the AC moderates the rela-tionship between perception and response to CC. The institutional and social context in which dairy farmers operate differentiates the AC of farmers. Women and poorer farmers tend to have a lower AC. The difference in AC across these social groups is explained by access to resources. The study recommends interventions to address social gaps in AC and highlights the importance of strengthening and expanding extension services and rural credit facilities.SIGNIFICANCE: Globally, fewer studies have been conducted on the impacts of climate-related risks on dairy farming systems and adaptation in comparison with such risks and adaptation in crop farming. This study provides insights into resource-poor dairy farmers' responses to CC and potential solutions in using common resources in VTCS to reduce vulnerability to CC.

Ranasinghe, RDAK; Korale-Gedara, PM; Weerasooriya, SA

Climate change adaptation and adaptive capacities of dairy farmers: Evidence from village tank cascade systems in Sri Lanka

Agricultural Systems

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2023.103609

Floods are seen in countries in tropical climatic zones, both in terms of quantity and harm. The non-tropical climate countries such as Turkey are also affected by the floods. The geographical structure of Turkey is extremely complex and varies even at short distance. Therefore, the shape and effects of the floods vary from region to region. Considering the peculiar state of nature, floods, which are the greatest disasters after the earthquake, are unlikely to occur. But floods are becoming more risky for human beings day by day because of the population growth, need of water and settlements, wrong zoning plan, and unplanned engineering practices. Regulation comes at the beginning of measures to be taken to minimize the damages that occur from the floods. To do these studies, it must be specified the changes which bridges on the rivers and hydraulics structures like regulator cause in cross sections and the effects of the changes to water surface profile due to the natural state of the land. In order to determine water surface profiles, many software packages have been developed for facilitating the analysis and calculation. HEC-RAS is one of them. In this study, the floodplain analysis was handled between Diyarbakir-Silvan Highway and historical Ten-Eyed Bridge. There are three bridges, and one of which are historical bridges, as well as fertile agricultural lands, facilities, and hospitals in the Dicle University campus, the Hevsel Gardens on the UNESCO World Cultural Heritage List, and some residential areas on the route under study. The aim of the study we have done in this much important route is to evaluate the flood areas and create a flood hazard map which can predict risky areas. And also contributing to the Tigris River Rehabilitation Project is one of the aims. About methodology, the 1/1000 maps of the study area were digitized using the AutoCAD Civil 3D program and cross sections were made by obtaining the digital elevation models of the region. The obtained cross sections were defined in the HEC-RAS software, and the hydraulic characteristics of the flood bed and the water surface profiles of the Q(25), Q(50), Q(100), and Q(500) flood recurring and one-dimensional floodplain analysis of the Tigris River were determined.

Ogras, S; Onen, F

Flood Analysis with HEC-RAS: A Case Study of Tigris River

Advances In Civil Engineering

https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/6131982

In many low-income nations agriculture is used as the primary source of income, which in the face of a changing climate, is known to be at considerable risk for the smallholder farmers that rely on it. Financial resources may enable smallholder farmers to implement adaptation practices and diversify income and investments, which has the potential to affect household income and food security. Here we explore relationships between access to different types of financial resources among male and female-headed households and women vs. men, use of financial resources, and its relationship to food security. We use data from the CGIAR Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS) program from four sites including Nyando (Western Kenya) and Wote (Eastern Kenya), Rakai (Uganda) and Kaffrine (Senegal), to represent major farming systems and agro-ecological zones across Africa. We find that male and female-headed households do not attempt to borrow financial resources in significantly different quantities; however, female-headed households are less likely to have access to financial resources if they wanted them. We find that men and male-headed households are more likely to access formal loans. As well, we find that male and female-headed households spend their financial resources differently with female-headed households most likely to use their credit for food, medical expenses and education and male-headed households most likely to use it on food, agriculture/ livestock inputs and education. Formals loans were more frequently associated with credit spent on agriculture/livestock inputs while informal loans were more likely to be utilized for buying food and medical care. In the context of food security we find that all households and sexes that attempted to borrow money in the past 12 months were less likely to borrow food or other goods, but that female-headed households were more than twice as likely to borrow food or other goods overall. These results add nuance to the relationship of financial resources to food security, suggesting that for many smallholders, especially women, credit is often used to obtain food and other health outcomes as compared to on-farm investment. The use of financial resources for these varying purposes likely has different short-term vs. long-term returns and tradeoffs, which could influence smallholder farmer capacity for climate change adaptation.

Carranza, M; Niles, MT

Smallholder Farmers Spend Credit Primarily on Food: Gender Differences and Food Security Implications in a Changing Climate

Frontiers In Sustainable Food Systems

https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2019.00056

Purpose While there are many such toolkits on community-based participatory methods, the key considerations and principles of conducting a participatory capacity and vulnerability analysis (PCVA) are less covered, yet they are central to the effective conduct of a PCVA, the reason why this paper focuses on such issues. Design/methodology/approach This paper is derived from a toolkit that was produced for Oxfam Australia. Disasters and climate change are major drivers of poverty and significantly affect the communities that development programs of Oxfam Australia aim to assist. Recognising the importance of building its organisational capacity to address these risks, Oxfam Australia initiated and commissioned the production of a PCVA toolkit to support disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation programs; the production of the toolkit was led by the author. The methodology of producing the toolkit consisted of discussions with experts and a review of similar toolkits. Findings Details of the PCVA process and how to conduct one in a community setting are provided including PCVA concepts, briefing, logistics and management and principles of working with communities. Importantly, the different stages of conducting a PCVA are explained, and some selected tools are presented as illustrative examples. In conclusion, the importance of the PCVA considerations and principles are reaffirmed vis-a-vis the sensitivity and soft skills required in a low-income developing country setting. Originality/value The participatory development approach, which the toolkit follows, has been widely advocated for the past few decades and most non-governmental organisations involved in community development espouse this approach. Consequently, a wide range of participatory development toolkits have been developed, many of which relate to disasters and climate change. The PCVA toolkit discussed in this paper draws on the repertoire of toolkits already available and used over a long time. Nonetheless, effort was given to assembling a range of tools that were most suitable for the purpose of this particular PCVA toolkit. Instead of focussing on the tools, which are available from the freely downloadable toolkit and available in the public domain, in this paper, the PCVA process and its main principles are explained, and the key considerations to carry out an effective PCVA is discussed. Perhaps even more than the actual tools, these considerations and an understanding of the PCVA principles are significant because they underpin the utilisation of the toolkit.

Ahmed, I

Considerations and principles for conducting a participatory capacity and vulnerability analysis (PCVA) for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation

International Journal Of Disaster Resilience In The Built Environment

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDRBE-05-2020-0043

Background: Children's flood risk perceptions that include their awareness and behaviors, can be cultivated through disaster education, which is crucial for improving disaster resilience and adaptation to climate extremes. However, education's co-influencing effect along with family and society was unclear. This study investigated a three-year disaster education program conducted in schools in Sichuan Province, China. Method: In three pilot counties, we used stratified duster sampling in 2016 and 2018 to separately survey the risk perceptions of 2,105 children (baseline) and 1710 children (post-intervention), respectively, aged 8-12, in 45 primary schools. The Ordinary Least Squares Regression and Propensity Score Matching Method (PSM) were used to assess the effectiveness of classroom education, propaganda poster, professional guidance, social education (television, radio, friends, and internet), and risk-related parent-child interactions. Interaction items and Structure Equation Model (SEM) were performed to identify their co-influencing mechanisms. Finally, the intervention effect was assessed by categorizing different levels of parent-child interactions and left-behind status. Result: The classroom education (Coeff = 0.040; P < 0.05), propaganda poster (Coeff = 0.024; P < 0.05), and professional guidance (Coeff = 0.016; P < 0.1) had significantly positive effects on children's flood risk perception. But these effects were found to be underestimated using PSM. Interaction effects between disaster education and parent-child interaction were statistically significant, and parent-child interaction was a moderating factor for improving risk perception (standardized indirect effect = 0.055, p < 0.001). Additionally, the mean score of risk perception increased by 118% in 2018 compared with the baseline. It was found that the higher the level of risk-related parent-child interaction, the higher the mean scores of risk perception (Coeff = 0.055; P < 0.001) irrespective whether they are left-behind children. Conclusion: To improve disaster resilience and climate change adaptation, risk-related parent-child interaction should be considered in disaster education, which is an effective way to promote children's risk perceptions. (C) 2020 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Zhong, S; Cheng, Q; Zhang, SW; Huang, CR; Wang, Z

An impact assessment of disaster education on children's flood risk perceptions in China: Policy implications for adaptation to climate extremes

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143761

Natural hazards are becoming increasingly significant these days. There is a need for documentation that concisely presents the type and magnitude of natural hazards as an aid to political and economic decision making. With the aim of presenting the global distribution of exposure to the most significant natural hazards as objectively as possible, Munich Re's Geoscience Research Group published its first World Map of Natural Hazards in 1978. After being revised in 1988, the map was completely reworked and extensively expanded in 1998. The results of earlier work and the latest findings in scientific literature were drawn together and presented in a form that practitioners find both accessible and - bearing in mind the needs of the insurance technicians in particular - readily usable. In the production of this third edition, all the basic data were for the first time recorded, adjusted, and analysed with the aid of geographic information systems (GIS). The resulting map in DIN A0 format (841x: 1189mm) and the 30-cm globe were produced exclusively with the techniques of digital cartography. A main map and four auxiliary maps present the following types of hazards together with background information: . Earthquake and vulcanism (shaking risk, Mexico-City-effect, tsunami, volcanic activity, plate tectonics). . Windstorm (tropical cyclone, extratropical storm, regional storm, tornado, hail, and lightning). . Flood (storm surge, severe rainfall). . Marine hazards (high waves, pack ice, and iceberg drift). . Effects of El Nino and climate change. In particular, hazard information has been stated, as far as possible, as numbers which can be checked and be used directly in insurance calculations. Hazard is often understood as a quantity that relates the occurrence/frequency and intensity of an event to a specific time interval and so is usually expressed in terms of a probability. Whenever possible, therefore, the hazard information on the world map has three essential components - intensity, frequency and reference period. The map comes with an accompanying brochure, which contains a description of the methods and scales used as well as a comprehensive catalogue of major natural catastrophes throughout the world. A considerably extended CD-ROM version of the World Map of Natural Hazards with numerous additional functionalities is also available now.

Berz, G; Kron, W; Loster, T; Rauch, E; Schimetschek, J; Schmieder, J; Siebert, A; Smolka, A; Wirtz, A

World map of natural hazards - A global view of the distribution and intensity of significant exposures

Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1011193724026

Water is a critical natural resource that sustains the productivity of many economic sectors, whether directly or indirectly. Climate change alongside rapid growth and development are a threat to water sustainability and regional productivity. In this paper, we develop an extension to the economic input-output model to assess the impact of water supply disruptions to regional economies. The model utilizes the inoperability variable, which measures the extent to which an infrastructure system or economic sector is unable to deliver its intended output. While the inoperability concept has been utilized in previous applications, this paper offers extensions that capture the time-varying nature of inoperability as the sectors recover from a disruptive event, such as drought. The model extension is capable of inserting inoperability adjustments within the drought timeline to capture time-varying likelihoods and severities, as well as the dependencies of various economic sectors on water. The model was applied to case studies of severe drought in two regions: (1) the state of Massachusetts (MA) and (2) the US National Capital Region (NCR). These regions were selected to contrast drought resilience between a mixed urban-rural region (MA) and a highly urban region (NCR). These regions also have comparable overall gross domestic products despite significant differences in the distribution and share of the economic sectors comprising each region. The results of the case studies indicate that in both regions, the utility and real estate sectors suffer the largest economic loss; nonetheless, results also identify region-specific sectors that incur significant losses. For the NCR, three sectors in the top 10 ranking of highest economic losses are government-related, whereas in the MA, four sectors in the top 10 are manufacturing sectors. Furthermore, the accommodation sector has also been included in the NCR case intuitively because of the high concentration of museums and famous landmarks. In contrast, the Wholesale Trade sector was among the sectors with the highest economic losses in the MA case study because of its large geographic size conducive for warehouses used as nodes for large-scale supply chain networks. Future modeling extensions could potentially include analysis of water demand and supply management strategies that can enhance regional resilience against droughts. Other regional case studies can also be pursued in future efforts to analyze various categories of drought severity beyond the case studies featured in this paper.

Pagsuyoin, SA; Santos, JR

Modeling regional impacts and resilience to water service disruptions in urban economies

Environment And Planning B-Urban Analytics And City Science

https://doi.org/10.1177/2399808321998703

Societal Impact StatementEcosystem-based adaptation (EbA) is increasingly being used to reduce the impacts of climate change on vulnerable people and landscapes. The international EbA South project implemented EbA interventions across three countries (Mauritania, Nepal, the Seychelles), piloting the restoration of mountain, desert and coastal ecosystems to enhance the climate resilience of local communities. The experiences of the EbA South project across these distinct ecosystems and socio-economic environments provide unique insights into the adaptive management invariably required within EbA initiatives. This analysis also provides lessons on how to share knowledge among different stakeholders and countries to advance South-South cooperation. SummaryClimate change is having an increasingly negative impact on the world's most vulnerable societies. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) uses biodiversity and ecosystem services to help local communities adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change. This approach, which has the potential to be implemented across a wide range of ecosystem types and scales, is increasingly being adopted by governments and international donors within climate change adaptation initiatives. The objective of the EbA South project was to enhance the climate resilience of communities in Mauritania, Nepal, and the Seychelles by building institutional capacity, mobilizing knowledge and transferring EbA technologies based on China's experience in successfully implementing restoration. The project implemented EbA interventions in the drylands of Mauritania, Himalayan forests in Nepal, and the coastal zone of the Seychelles. All interventions were carefully monitored by researchers to generate scientific evidence of the impacts of EbA. Here, we provide implementers of EbA with the major lessons learned from the EbA South project, namely: (a) quantifying the full suite of ecosystem goods and services generated through EbA at a landscape scale; (b) budgeting in advance for management of time-consuming complexities related to socioeconomics and ecology such as land-use conflict, ineffective government structures, disagreements regarding intervention options, and challenging environmental conditions; (c) undertaking long-term research for adaptive management and documenting the project's successes; (d) providing platforms for effective communication and collaboration among stakeholders with different first languages; and (e) regularly adjusting exit strategies for maintenance of the EbA landscapes after closure of the project.

Mills, AJ; Tan, DW; Manji, AK; Vijitpan, T; Henriette, E; Murugaiyan, P; Pantha, RH; Lafdal, MY; Soule, A; Cazzetta, S; Bégat, P; Vlieghe, KEP; Lavirotte, L; Kok, JT; Lister, J

Ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change: Lessons learned from a pioneering project spanning Mauritania, Nepal, the Seychelles, and China

Plants People Planet

https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp3.10126

Pakistan is urbanizing at the fastest pace in South Asia, and if left unplanned, it will not only reduce adaptive capacity of its residents rather it will be a chaos for its residents. The aim of this study is to answer the question on how urbanites of Pakistan are coping with climate change and which part of the society required support to cope with changing climate? To answer this questions, this study conducted survey through a structured questionnaire, from the urban residents of Islamabad, to explore their coping mechanisms towards climate change. Survey collected information on demographic, social, economic, and physical aspects, using Hackman's Treatment effect model. The sample selection equation is conditional on the adaptations to climate change in the outcome equation. Main independent variables are income, age, education, and occupation. Selection equation is based on perceptions of individuals about climate change which contains dependent variables of changes in temperature of summers and winters, changes in rain fall pattern, fog, hailstorm, and information received from social media and peer groups. With the result of 57.55, the Wald test shows that overall, there exists goodness of fit at the 99 percent confidence level. The value of rho in the Heckman model is 0.40 which implies the Heckman model provides more consistent and more efficient estimates. The results are suggesting that increasing age enhances the likelihood of adaptations as the positive and significant coefficient of age implies that age has probability to adapt to climate change. The positive and significant coefficient of income, education, and occupation implies that urbanites have higher probability to adapt to climate change. Perception is the essential foundation of adaptation, and differences in perception can be transferred to the adapted strategies. Households that experience a greater variation in annual mean temperature are more likely to adopt any adaptation strategy to cope with climate change. Essentially, poverty encompasses the majority of the characteristics that reduce respondents' adaptation capacity and increase their susceptibility to climate change. The major contextual disparities were discovered across union councils in the form of financial, personal, social, physical, and natural capitals of families. Therefore, obligation is on government to offer greater support for individuals who are less affluent in terms of these assets. For this city, officials must offer subsidy schemes to less privileged and marginalized people of urban dwellers to enhance their adaptive capacity.

Ahmed, N; Padda, IU; Khan, A; Otil, MD; Cismas, LM; Miculescu, A; Rehman, A

Climate change adaption strategies in urban communities: new evidence from Islamabad, Pakistan

Environmental Science And Pollution Research

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-25316-x

Farmers in the Indo-Gangetic Plains produce much of the wheat and rice grown in India. However, food production and millions of farm-based livelihoods in this region will continue to be adversely affected by hydro-climatic change and variation, reduced land productivity, and declining groundwater levels. Thus, agricultural adaptations are essential for protecting and improving upon intersecting goals of food security, poverty alleviation, and wellbeing. Household capital (e.g., natural, human, financial, physical, and social) is commonly cited as an indicator of livelihood adaptability and innovation. We develop a series of mediated structural equation models to empirically evaluate the validity of capital as a suitable indicator for adaptation and adaptive capacity. These models assess the extent to which household capital mediates the relationship between over 1,000 socio-economically differentiated and randomly selected farm households, and their crop, livestock, and land management adaptations in the states of Haryana and Bihar. Central to our models is a single household capital variable, constructed by aggregating nearly 80 different measurements of households' (i) physical/infrastructural capital, (ii) owned or accessed assets, (iii) livelihood diversity, (iv) ability to reach market or commercialize, (v) access to weather information, and (vi) social capital. We find household capital is a significant predictor in adopting crop, land management, and livestock-related adaptation strategies across both states. Second, and in certain cases, lower castes and less educated households engaged in fewer agricultural adaptations-an outcome mediated by their lower composition of capital. Further, and across almost all contexts, household capital mediated the effect of owning a greater proportion of land, and the higher uptake of agricultural adaptation activities. While improvements in any capital category can improve adoption, we recommend programs that improve (i) access to public and private agricultural infrastructure for lower castes; (ii) education and shared knowledge spaces for less-educated households; and (iii) the availability of low-interest loans and the more efficient legal transfer of land for agriculturalists owning a smaller proportion of their land. Through this novel and large-scale analysis of household data, we provide short-term and immediate recommendations for more equitable agricultural adaptation in this breadbasket region of northern India.

Shah, SH; Wagner, CH; Sanga, U; Park, H; Demange, LHMD; Gueiros, C; Niles, MT

Does Household Capital Mediate the Uptake of Agricultural Land, Crop, and Livestock Adaptations? Evidence From the Indo-Gangetic Plains (India)

Frontiers In Sustainable Food Systems

https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2019.00001

The aim of this paper is the application of the KULTURisk regional risk assessment (KR-RRA) methodology, presented in the companion paper (Part 1, Ronco et al., 2014), to the Sihl River basin, in northern Switzerland. Flood-related risks have been assessed for different receptors lying on the Sihl River valley including Zurich, which represents a typical case of river flooding in an urban area, by calibrating the methodology to the site-specific context and features. Risk maps and statistics have been developed using a 300-year return period scenario for six relevant targets exposed to flood risk: people; economic activities: buildings, infrastructure and agriculture; natural and semi-natural systems; and cultural heritage. Finally, the total risk index map has been produced to visualize the spatial pattern of flood risk within the target area and, therefore, to identify and rank areas and hotspots at risk by means of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) tools. Through a tailored participatory approach, risk maps supplement the consideration of technical experts with the (essential) point of view of relevant stakeholders for the appraisal of the specific scores weighting for the different receptor-relative risks. The total risk maps obtained for the Sihl River case study are associated with the lower classes of risk. In general, higher (relative) risk scores are spatially concentrated in the deeply urbanized city centre and areas that lie just above to river course. Here, predicted injuries and potential fatalities are mainly due to high population density and to the presence of vulnerable people; flooded buildings are mainly classified as continuous and discontinuous urban fabric; flooded roads, pathways and railways, most of them in regards to the Zurich central station (Hauptbahnhof) are at high risk of inundation, causing severe indirect damage. Moreover, the risk pattern for agriculture, natural and semi-natural systems and cultural heritage is relatively less important mainly because the scattered presence of these assets. Finally, the application of the KR-RRA methodology to the Sihl River case study, as well as to several other sites across Europe (not presented here), has demonstrated its flexibility and the possible adaptation of it to different geographical and socioeconomic contexts, depending on data availability and particulars of the sites, and for other (hazard) scenarios.

Ronco, P; Bullo, M; Torresan, S; Critto, A; Olschewski, R; Zappa, M; Marcomini, A

KULTURisk regional risk assessment methodology for water-related natural hazards - Part 2: Application to the Zurich case study

Hydrology And Earth System Sciences

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1561-2015

Purpose This study aims to examine the impacts of climate change (CC), measured average annual rainfall, average annual temperature and carbon dioxide (CO(2)e) on cereal production (CPD) in Bangladesh by using the annual dataset from 1988-2014, with the incorporation of cereal cropped area (CCA), financial development (FD), energy consumption (EC) and rural labor force as important determinants of CPD. Design/methodology/approach This study used an auto-regressive distributive lag (ARDL) model and several econometric approaches to validate the long- and short-term cointegration and the causality directions, respectively, of the scrutinized variables. Findings Results of the bounds testing approach confirmed the stable long-term connections among the underlying variables. The estimates of the ARDL model indicated that rainfall improves CPD in the short-and long-term. However, CO(2)e has a significantly negative impact on CPD both in the short-and long-term. Results further showed that temperature has an adverse effect on CPD in the short-term. Among other determinants, CCA, FD and EC have significantly positive impacts on CPD in both cases. The outcomes of Granger causality indicated that a significant two-way causal association is running from all variables to CPD except temperature and rainfall. The connection between CPD and temperature is unidirectional, showing that CPD is influenced by temperature. All other variables also have a valid and significant causal link among each other. Additionally, the findings of variance decomposition suggest that results are robust, and all these factors have a significant influence on CPD in Bangladesh. Research limitations/implications These findings have important policy implications for Bangladesh and other developing countries. For instance, introduce improved cereal crop varieties, increase CCA and familiarizes agricultural credits through formal institutions on relaxed conditions and on low-interest rates could reduce the CPD's vulnerability to climate shocks. Originality/value To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study is the first attempt to examine the short- and long-term impacts of CC on CPD in Bangladesh over 1988-2014. The authors used various econometrics techniques, including the ARDL approach, the Granger causality test based on the vector error correction model framework and the variance decomposition method.

Chandio, AA; Jiang, YS; Fatima, T; Ahmad, F; Ahmad, M; Li, JJ

Assessing the impacts of climate change on cereal production in Bangladesh: evidence from ARDL modeling approach

International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-10-2020-0111

In the prairies of Alberta, Canada, winters are cold, wood is scarce. This place is home to Native Americans - many of them are highly educated nowadays. One summer, a young Native American Chief, college-educated and incapable of reading the signs of Mother Nature, was asked by his people how cold the next winter will be. Embarrassed of not mastering the traditional skills for predicting the weather, and to be on the safe side, he said to his people: 'Well, I think this will be a pretty cold winter this year.' He then sought help from his college friend, a meteorologist at the local Weather Channel station. 'Tell me, Joshua, don't you think we are facing a cold winter this year?' Equally unable to predict the weather so far ahead, and also to be on the safe side, Joshua the meteorologist confirmed the Chief's opinion: 'Oh, I think this will be a really cold winter', was his answer. So the Chief went back to his people and announced: 'Folks, this year, I know, the winter will be particularly cold - let's all join forces to collect as much wood as we can'. A few weeks later the Chief asked Joshua for a more accurate prediction of the winter. The meteorologist answered: 'I am certain this will be an extremely cold winter!' Back with his people, the Chief announced: 'People - I have signs that this winter will be so cold that none of our ancestors, as long as our memory reaches, have encountered. Let's collect all the wood we can find!' Just before the winter, the Chief consulted his meteorologist friend again, and we the meteorologist told him: 'This is going to be a record-breaking winter!' Curious about his certainty, the Chief asked: 'Joshua, tell me, how can you be so certain about this?' To which the meteorologist replied: 'You know, my friend, I have never seen this before in my entire life: all the Native Americans have been collecting wood like crazy this year' (adopted from Huang 2013, 415-416, in de Wit 2017, 151).

De Wit, S; Pascht, A; Haug, M

Translating Climate Change Anthropology and the Travelling Idea of Climate Change - Introduction

Sociologus

The article presents the results of the analysis of the current state of weather and climatic conditions and evaluation of their predicted changes for immediate and distant prospects in the rice-growing zone of Ukraine. Studies were performed on the example of the Danube rice irrigation systems (RIS) in Odessa region with a total area of 13,678 ha, which are located in lands prone to salinization. The following major meteorological characteristics were investigated: air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and air humidity deficit, as well as derivatives: photosynthetically active radiation and water availability coefficient (precipitation/evapotranspiration ratio). Retrospective analysis and forecast of meteorological regimes by typical groups were done (estimated years) of vegetation periods of target years in view of general heat and moisture provision: very wet-p = 10%, wet-p = 30%, middle-p = 50%, dry-p = 70%, very dry-p = 90%. The basis of forecast calculations is the results of studies of possible changes of air temperature by the models of Canadian Climate Center CCCM and of the United Kingdom Met Office UKMO which foresee an increase in average annual temperature up to 4 degrees C and 6 degrees C relatively-provided that the doubling CO2 in atmosphere occurs. The main trends in changes of meteorological characteristics and their possible effect on the conditions of functioning rice irrigation systems as well as on the natural and ameliorative state of irrigated areas were identified. The most significant influence on the condition of fonctioning of RIS is air temperature, which directly effects duration of maturation and total value of water consumption of rice crops. It is established that in the last decades a significant increase in the average value of air temperature for the growing season happened (April-October): 1981-1990-16.9 degrees C, 1991-2000-17.5 degrees C, 2001-2010-18.1 degrees C, 2011-2017-17.7 degrees C. It is determined that at the existing rates and levels of weather and climatic changes, we should expect a significant deterioration of functioning conditions of RIS and natural reclamation state of irrigated land. In this regard, were examined core measures regarding the adaptive potential enhancement and development of the rice-growing zone under the conditions of climate change.

Rokochynskiy, A; Turcheniuk, V; Prykhodko, N; Volk, P; Gerasimov, I; Koç, C

Evaluation of Climate Change in the Rice-Growing Zone of Ukraine and Ways of Adaptation to the Predicted Changes

Agricultural Research

https://doi.org/10.1007/s40003-020-00473-4

Purpose Knowledge sharing for evidence-based climate change adaptation is key to reducing vulnerabilities. The disastrous effects of the recent tropical cyclone Idai in Zimbabwe's eastern highlands, whereby lives and livelihoods were destroyed, calls for fundamental rethinking on how knowledge sharing can be useful in reducing vulnerabilities. This study aims to examine how knowledge sharing practices among selected climate action organisations can support positive results in evidence-based climate change adaptation in Zimbabwe and recommends a strategy to enhance knowledge sharing for evidence-based climate change adaptation. Design/methodology/approach The researcher opted for a qualitative research methodology, and interviews were conducted with research participants to get in-depth information. The target population for the research is drawn from three climate change organisations in Zimbabwe. These participants were chosen because of their direct involvement in climate change adaptation and mitigation. Purposive sampling was used because it was considered an easy and informal method to reach the target population. The responses were coded and readied for analysis. Categories for analysis were also determined and described. The next section focuses on the presentation and interpretation of the responses. Findings The study found out that even though there is evidence of knowledge sharing in the selected organisations, there was a need for a strategy that integrates the efforts of all climate action organisation to realise successful climate change adaptation. Successful climate change adaptation requires an integrative force in the form of a strategy that supports knowledge sharing. The strategy breaks the silo mode of operation by bringing together all stakeholders through knowledge sharing. Research limitations/implications The research study was unique to the Zimbabwean climate change and adaptation context and only a purposive sampling of participants representing three climate change action was feasible. Social implications The proposed model will enhance knowledge sharing among climate change and adaptation organisations in Zimbabwe. It will transform knowledge management practices among climate change organisations in Zimbabwe. Originality/value The study recommends a knowledge sharing strategy that can be useful in supporting climate change adaptation. The model will support decision-making by providing access to shareable information on climate change. The proposed knowledge sharing strategy integrates the efforts of all stakeholders, including communities, government and academia, among many. The study proposes an original model for climate change adaptation for Zimbabwe.

Chisita, CT; Fombad, MC

Knowledge sharing to support climate change adaptation in Zimbabwe Views from selected climate action organisations

Vine Journal Of Information And Knowledge Management Systems

https://doi.org/10.1108/VJIKMS-10-2019-0161

Climate change has compounding effects on development, including direct and indirect impacts on food systems and human health. In the Pacific Islands region, the incidence of non-communicable diseases is among the highest in the world. Additionally, in policy documents, climate change features prominently among the issues most responsible for hindering development in the Pacific. Global discussions are now shifting towards a greater understanding and emphasis on the links between climate change, food systems, nutrition, health, and development. While these links are increasingly appreciated in research and practice, there is a need to understand which types of policy frameworks are best suited to address these issues in an integrated manner. This study was conducted by analyzing policy alignment and coherence in national level strategic planning instruments (policies, plans, and strategies) for two countries in the Pacific Islands region: Fiji and Vanuatu. Documents in the policy domains of development, agriculture, nutrition, health, and climate change were assessed to identify evidence of vertical (national to local), horizontal (between sectors), and integration across different thematic policy approaches (e.g. between economic development sustainable development approaches). By deconstructing the aims of different planning approaches and documents, and by mapping the relationships among them, it is possible to identify opportunities and gaps in the policy architecture that could be addressed in future planning cycles. The study identifies that policy alignment and coherence need to be explicitly addressed in the policy and planning design stage and included in monitoring and evaluation frameworks. The study also highlights the lag in the design and implementation of comprehensive food and nutrition security strategies in both countries and these lags can be linked to policy solutions for agriculture, health, and climate change. Key policy insights There is a need to explicitly consider policy alignment in the design stages of the policy cycle and set policy coherence as an explicit outcome to also be included in monitoring and evaluation frameworks. A lack of consideration of vertical, horizontal, and approach integration in planning and policy processes can lead to failures in the implementation of climate policy, thus delaying countries' efforts towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Pacific Island countries have an opportunity to work towards use of policy frameworks that are able to provide comprehensive responses to the compounding effects of climate change on food systems, diets, health, and, more broadly, on development.

Hidalgo, DM; Nunn, PD; Beazley, H; Burkhart, S; Rantes, J

Adaptation, sustainable food systems and healthy diets: an analysis of climate policy integration in Fiji and Vanuatu

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2022.2095969

Facilitating research and enhancing community research capacity through a partnered approach in Inuit Nunangat (the Inuit homeland of Canada, located in Arctic Canada) presents learning opportunities and challenges for southern-based, non-Inuit researchers and community members alike. This article outlines lessons learned through the Arctic Corridors and Northern Voices (AC-NV) project, which involved 14 communities across Inuit Nunangat. The AC-NV focused on understanding community-identified impacts and potential management options of increased shipping in Inuit Nunangat due to sea ice reductions and a changing climate. The approach used to conduct the research involved visiting researchers and community partners working together with local organizations, and training and hiring northern youth as cultural liaisons and workshop co-facilitators. We strove to develop a model of collaborative partnership and strong north-south research relationships. In this paper, we draw on our broad learning experiences from four community case studies conducted as part of the AC-NV project: Arviat, Cambridge Bay, Gjoa Haven, and Pond Inlet, Nunavut. Close partnerships were formed in each of these communities, and 32 youth were trained in participatory mapping and workshop facilitation. For our diverse team of Inuit, northern- (i.e., non-Inuit, living in Inuit Nunangat), and southern-based non-Inuit researchers, our efforts to engage in partnered research were a critical component of the research and learning experience. In this article we share methodological reflections and lessons learned from what collaborative-partnered research means in practice. In so doing, we aim to contribute to the increasing dialogue and efforts around knowledge co-production and Inuit self-determination in research. Key conclusions of this reflective exercise include the importance of 1) conducting research that is relevant to local needs and interests, 2) visiting researchers and local organizations partnering together, 3) co-creating and refining knowledge documentation tools, 4) including youth cultural liaisons as co-facilitators, 5) conducting results validation and sharing exercises, and 6) being open to forming personal friendships. For the AC-NV, this community-based partnership approach resulted in more robust research results, strengthened north-south relations, and enhanced local capacity for community-led projects.

Carter, NA; Dawson, J; Simonee, N; Tagalik, S; Ljubicic, G

Lessons Learned through Research Partnership and Capacity Enhancement in Inuit Nunangat

Arctic

https://doi.org/10.14430/arctic69507

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to explore whether the private sector consider voluntary involvement in efforts to combat the impacts of climate change in the lines mitigation approaches and adaptation approaches. Today's world has increasingly become aware of the adverse effects of climate change and its impact on the poor, though the latter impact is not that well known. To address these impacts, recommendations exist that follow two different though interrelated approaches - mitigation and adaptation. Design/methodology/approach - Using a survey questionnaire as the research instrument and a sampling frame of 350 junior corporate executives, an empirical study was conducted in the Chennai area in southern part of India to evaluate/measure the linkages between awareness to climate change, its impact on the poor and the willingness of private sector to act on adaptation as well as mitigation strategies. Findings - From the data analysis, it emerges that there is significant awareness about the impacts of climate change, though the awareness to vulnerability of the poor is not yet significant in Chennai area in the private sector. However, the study concludes that there does exist a significant linkage between awareness and the willingness to support adaptation strategies on the part of junior corporate executives. Research limitations/implications - The study is country specific because the research was carried out in a defined region in India. Practical implications - Because the study brought out the result that private sector was willing to participate in adaptation strategies, extensive awareness building can be carried out for corporate executives and plan out activities which will enable them to participate in adaptation strategies which would help the poor in India to help address the devastations caused by Climate Change from time to time. Social implications - Executives taking up the Climate Change adaptation strategy would help protect and benefit all communities especially the poor in the country. Companies operating in India would find an avenue to reach out in their efforts to touch communities around them. Employees in such companies may be organized and gathered together to participate in such reach-out activities on the part of the companies. Originality/value - This paper fulfils urgent need to inspire the corporate executives to take up initiatives related to climate change. The paper lays the groundwork on which an array of corporate activities can be developed to implement the adaptation strategies. Further extensive thinking can follow this research as to where and how exactly private sector can help.

Rao, PH; Thamizhvanan, A

Impacts of climate change Survey of mitigation and adaptation strategies of junior corporate executives in India

International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-12-2012-0069

This study was initiated to analyze smallholder farmers' vulnerability to climate change-induced shocks and identify the adaptation strategies they practice. The study was conducted in the North Wollo and Wag Hemra zones of the Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia. It employed both qualitative and quantitative methods of data collection. The zones and districts were selected purposively based on the frequency of shocks and the sample Kebeles and sample respondents were selected randomly. Quantitative data were collected using a household survey, whereas qualitative data were collected via focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and field observations. While the quantitative data were analyzed by descriptive statistics, the qualitative data were transcribed, coded, organized thematically based on these similarities, and interpreted thematically. The results show that the major climate change-induced shocks in the area were increase in temperature and changes in rainfall-related variables, such as shifts in rainy periods, shortages of rain, and variability of rainfall. In addition, droughts, crop and livestock pests and diseases, and pasture and water scarcity are all widespread in the area. As a result, land degradation and reduced crop and livestock output were identified as the primary impacts due to climate change-induced shocks on smallholder livelihoods. The findings demonstrate that households and communities are extremely vulnerable to climate change-related shocks. To reduce their vulnerability to climate change, smallholder farmers in the area used both autonomous and policy-driven climate change adaptation strategies, such as soil and water conservation practices, haystack preparation, improved crop varieties, fertilizer, pesticide, and herbicide application. Nonetheless, smallholder farmers' vulnerability to climate change-induced shocks persists, owing to the limitations in the implementation of existing adaptation strategies in the area. Limited access to finance, information, and technologies have all been an obstacle in the sector, preventing comprehensive adaptation to climate change. As a result, smallholder farmers' capacity to adopt both autonomous and policy-driven climate change adaptation strategies must be strengthened. Hence use of improved crop and livestock varieties, application of good agricultural practices, construction of micro-and small-scale irrigation structures, and provision of well-coordinated early warning systems are examples of adaptation strategies that could be implemented to reduce vulnerability to climate change-induced shocks and increase farmers' adaptive capacity.

Tofu, DA; Woldeamanuel, T; Haile, F

Smallholder farmers' vulnerability and adaptation to climate change induced shocks: The case of Northern Ethiopia highlands

Journal Of Agriculture And Food Research

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafr.2022.100312

Turkey has been severely affected by many natural hazards, in particular earthquakes and floods. Especially over the last two decades, these natural hazards have caused enormous human and economic damage. Although there is a large body of literature on earthquake hazards and risks in Turkey, comparatively little is known about flood hazards and risks. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the severity of flooding in comparison with other natural hazards in Turkey and to analyse the flood patterns by providing an overview of the temporal and spatial distribution of flood losses. These will act as a metric for the societal and economic impacts of flood hazards in Turkey. For this purpose, Turkey Disaster Database (TABB) was used for the years 1960-2014. As input for more detailed event analyses, the most severe flood events in Turkey for the same time interval will also be retrieved. Sufficiency of the TABB database to achieve the main aim of the study in terms of data quality and accuracy was also discussed. The TABB database was analysed and reviewed through comparison, mainly with the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), the Global Active Archive of Large Flood Events-Dartmouth Flood Observatory database, news archives and the scientific literature, with a focus on listing the most severe flood event. The comparative review of these data sources reveals big mismatches in the flood data, i.e. the reported number of events, number of affected people and economic loss all differ dramatically. Owing to the fact that the TABB is the only disaster loss database for Turkey, it is important to explore the reasons for the mismatches between TABB and the other sources with regard to aspects of accuracy and data quality. Therefore, biases and fallacies in the TABB loss data are also discussed. The comparative TABB database analyses show that large mismatches between global and national databases can occur. Current global and national databases for monitoring losses from national hazards suffer from a number of limitations, which in turn could lead to misinterpretations of the loss data. Since loss data collection is gaining more and more attention, e.g. in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, this study offers a framework for developing guidelines for the Turkey Disaster Database (TABB), implications on how to standardize national loss databases and implement across the other hazard events in Turkey.

Koç, G; Thieken, AH

The relevance of flood hazards and impacts in Turkey: What can be learned from different disaster loss databases?

Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3134-6

Empirical evidence on the opportunities and barriers to the uptake of climate services by smallholder farmers for resilient agricultural systems in sub-Saharan Africa is limited. This paper addresses this important gap by evaluating the opportunities and barriers to the uptake of climate information (from short-term weather forecasts, through seasonal forecasts to longer-term climate change information on decadal timescales) by smallholder farmers in the Sudan savannah agro-ecological zone of Ghana. The paper answers the following research questions: i) what kinds of weather and climate information are available and accessible to smallholder farmers for agricultural management decision-making? ii) what opportunities exist for using climate information in agricultural systems in the Sudan savannah agro-ecological zone? iii) what are the key barriers to the uptake of climate information by smallholder farmers in the Sudan savannah agro-ecological zones of Ghana? The study used participatory approaches including household surveys with 555 farmers, 3 stakeholder workshops, 15 key informant interviews and 12 focus group discussions across 6 communities in the Sudan savannah agroecological zone. Findings show that more than a third of the study respondents (40%; n = 555) were not receiving climate information. Out of the 60% receiving climate information, the majority (91%; n = 335) indicated receiving information on rainfall with fewer respondents 21% and 26% receiving information on temperature and windstorms, respectively. Radio was the key medium for receiving weather and climate information. Both female and male smallholder farmers were using climate information to make critical farming decisions including time of land preparations (79%), crop variety selection (50%), changing cropping patterns (36%), planting time adjustments (31%), harvesting time (21%) and disease/pest management (10%). Increasing uptake of weather and climate information is confronted with multiple barriers including inadequate information on seasonal forecast for long-term planning, low accessibility of climate information, high levels of illiteracy, difficulties in understanding technical language used in communicating climate information and misalignment between the climate information provided and what smallholder farmers need. Climate information should be linked directly to agricultural impacts and management decision-making to ensure it is both available to, and usable by smallholder farmers.

Antwi-Agyei, P; Dougill, AJ; Abaidoo, RC

Opportunities and barriers for using climate information for building resilient agricultural systems in Sudan savannah agro-ecological zone of north-eastern Ghana

Climate Services

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100226

Climate change brings uncertainty and challenges to achieving sustainable development goals. The dually vulnerable regions in terms of the environment and economy are facing substantial threats from climate change; particularly, smallholder farmers who heavily rely on natural ecosystems in these regions are being the most affected. Paying attention to the vulnerability assessment of these regions is conducive to precisely improving the ability of their people to cope with climate change. This study aimed to construct an extended framework of climate change vulnerability assessment at the household level by combining the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change vulnerability assessment framework with the sustainable livelihood framework. Four typical regions with different climatic and geographical conditions in China, including the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (marked as AOHAN, representing the type of grassland, similarly hereinafter), Qinghai Province (HYMH, plateau), Yunnan Province (YLNL, mountain), and the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region (NNQZ, coastal zone), were selected to apply the framework. In total, 29 villages from these four regions were selected at random, and 360 face-to-face interviews were conducted in selected villages based on a pretested questionnaire. The results show that AOHAN had the greatest vulnerability, as well as the highest exposure level among the four regions, which was also the major source of differences in vulnerability. Further analysis shows that although the sensitivity and adaptive capacity showed relatively small differences, the sources of sensitivity and adaptation strategies were quite different among the four regions. In terms of sensitivity, YLNL had the highest level of sensitivity in housing, water, and livestock, and AOHAN assumed the highest sensitivity in land. The advantages and disadvantages in terms of adaptive capacity also varied widely among the four regions. More specifically, AOHAN had a balanced adaptive capacity; YLNL largely relied on the advantages in social and human capitals to compensate for the disadvantage in physical capital; and the strengths in physical and financial capitals are the main sources of adaptive capacities for NNQZ and HYMH, respectively. In general, the vulnerability assessment framework proposed in this study provides guidelines for vulnerability assessments at the household level in the face of climate change. In addition, heterogeneous measures to cope with the threats of climate change should be put forward precisely, based on the climatic, geographical and socioeconomic characteristics of each region.

Xu, XB; Wang, L; Sun, MX; Fu, C; Bai, YL; Li, C; Zhang, LX

Climate change vulnerability assessment for smallholder farmers in China: An extended framework

Journal Of Environmental Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111315

Grassland-based animal husbandry is the dominant economic activity on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, and livestock production is the main contributor to livelihood creation for pastoralists. In recent years, changes in food markets and climate variables bring the need to develop livestock production into sharp focus. By using the Cobb-Douglas production function, we defined the per capita meat production of rural households as dependent variable, while the proportion of accumulated precipitation from April to September in annual average precipitation (PCI), the productive fixed assets per capita, the number of labor force per household were considered as independent variables in order to model the relationship between the per capita meat production and the PCI at micro level of household. Based on the time series data of rural household survey (1986-2012) and observed meteorological data (1978-2010) across Shigatse Prefecture, Tibet, China, we estimated the sensitivity of per capita meat production to the PCI. We also quantified the adaptation effects of the productive fixed assets and labor productivity in improving per capita meat production of rural households respectively. Our results indicate that: (i) the per capita meat production of rural households exhibits a high sensitivity to three key variables: the productive fixed assets per capita, the number of labor force per household, and the PCI. It increases by 0.938 and 0.218 times when the productive fixed assets per capita and the PCI increase by one unit respectively. On the contrary, it decreases by 0.268 times when the number of labor force per household engaged in grass-fed livestock sector increases by one unit; (ii) on the basis of parameter estimates and Cobb-Douglas modeling, the losses of meat production due to decrease in the PCI can be offset by increasing productive fixed assets. And a decrease in the labor force engaged in grass-fed livestock sector can help improve the productivity of grassland-based animal husbandry. Therefore, adaptation options of rural households, based on the productive fixed assets and labor productivity, will be most effective in the long term when they are complemented by appropriate public policies such as infrastructure construction, water conservancy project, subsidies of livestock production material, professional training and innovation of pastoralists' perception at different scales. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fang, YP; Liu, YW; Yan, X

Meat production' sensitivity and adaptation to precipitation concentration index during the growing season of grassland: Insights from rural households

Agricultural And Forest Meteorology

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.11.001

The Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage (L&D) associated with Climate Change Impacts (WIM) was established in 2013 to advance i) knowledge generation; ii) coordination and iii) support to address losses and damages under the UNFCCC. So far, the work undertaken by the WIM Executive Committee (ExCom) has focused on enhancing understanding and awareness of the issue and promoting collaboration with relevant stakeholders. Delivering on the WIM's third function on action and support has lagged behind, and 'the political' nature of L&D has often been blamed for this. Key terrains of contention among Parties have included the positioning of L&D governance vis-a-vis the adaptation space and struggles around state liability and compensation. As a way to facilitate discussion on implementation options, recent research has suggested de-politicising aspects of the L&D debate; yet we have very little insight into how the politics are understood within the realm of international L&D governance. This paper brings an analysis of 'the political' into the picture by identifying the complex and underlying issues that fuel contention within UNFCCC L&D negotiations. It gives centre stage to the way different framings of norms and material interests affect the debate, and challenges the tendency in current L&D literature to overlook the socio-historical and political underpinnings of this area of policy-making. We employ a qualitative mull-methods research design which draws on content analysis of 138 official Parties' submissions and statements, 14 elite interviews with key current and former L&D negotiators and is built on a foundation of 3 years of participant observation at COPs and WIM meetings. We approach this data with a political ethnographic sensibility that seeks to explore how meanings are constructed within and across different sources of data. Our empirical results show that, rather than being a monolithic dispute, L&D catalyses different yet intertwined unresolved discussions. We identify five areas of contention, including continued disputes around compensation; conflicts on the legitimacy of L&D as a third pillar of climate action; tensions between the technical and political dimension of the debate; debates over accountability for losses and damages incurred; and the connection of L&D with other unresolved issues under the Convention.

Calliari, E; Serdeczny, O; Vanhala, L

Making sense of the politics in the climate change loss & damage debate

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102133

Climate change and variability are significant challenges for the environment and food security worldwide. Development strategies focusing simultaneously on adaptive farming, productivity, and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions-known as climate-smart agriculture (CSA) strategies-are key to responding to these challenges. For almost a decade, within the framework of Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), World Agroforestry (ICRAF), and its partners have been using Participatory Action Research (PAR) to fully engage key stakeholders in co-creating such CSA development strategies. This includes the testing of Agricultural Research for Development (AR4D) CSA scalability options. The multidisciplinary teams include the National Research and Extension Systems (NARES), national meteorological services (NMS), non-profit organizations (NGOs), and local radio programs, among others. The CCAFS-West Africa Program, World Agroforestry-West and Central Africa (ICRAF-WCA), International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), University of Reading, and Centre Regional de Formation et d'Application en Agro-meteorologie et Hydrologie Operationnelle (AGRHYMET) provide technical backstopping to the national teams. Climate information (CI) was used as an entry point to inform the development of CSA technologies and practices within Climate-Smart Villages (CSV). This groundwork has led to a greater understanding of three critical factors for successful CSV implementation: (1) Building strong partnerships to co-design and develop agricultural systems that improve ecosystem and population resilience, (2) Key stakeholders (researchers, farmers, development agents, and students) capacity strengthening through vocational and academic training, and (3) Using CI for livelihood planning at all scales. These three factors support more effective identification and testing of agricultural technologies and practices addressing climate variability and change at plot, community, and landscape levels. This paper discusses the PAR-CSA methodology and parameters for evaluation, including biophysical and social change. Keys to success, including communication, knowledge sharing tools, and scalability are also discussed. Finally, future opportunities for improvement are presented, including knowledge product development, CSA policy and investment planning, capacity building, further engagement of the private sector, and additional research on existing practices and tools.

Bayala, J; Ky-Dembele, C; Dayamba, SD; Somda, J; Ouédraogo, M; Diakite, A; Chabi, A; Alhassane, A; Bationo, AB; Buah, SSJ; Sanogo, D; Tougiani, A; Traore, K; Zougmoré, RB; Rosenstock, TS

Multi-Actors' Co-Implementation of Climate-Smart Village Approach in West Africa: Achievements and Lessons Learnt

Frontiers In Sustainable Food Systems

https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2021.637007

Effective warning messages should tell people what they should do, how they should do it, and how to maximize their health and safety. Guidance essentially delivers two types of information: 1) information that instructs people about the actions to take in response to a threat and 2) information about how and why these recommended protective actions will reduce harm. However, recent research reported that while automated tornado warnings, sent by the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center via the account @NWStornado on Twitter, included useful information about the location of the threat, the potential impacts, and populations at risk, they failed to provide content that would contribute to successful protective actions. In this experimental study we investigate how the inclusion and presentation of protective action guidance affects participant perceptions of a tornado warning message and their perceived ability to act upon the information (i.e., self- and response efficacy). We find that the inclusion of protective action guidance results an increase in the participants' understanding of the message, their ability to decide what to do, and their perceived self- and response efficacy. Knowing how to take action to protect oneself and believing the actions will make oneself safe are key motivators to taking action when faced with a significant threat. Future warning research should draw from other persuasive messaging and health behavior theories and should include self-efficacy and response efficacy as important causal factors. It should also look across additional hazards to determine if these outcomes differ by the length of forewarning and hazard type. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Tornadoes frequently pose an imminent threat to individuals, requiring quick decision-making. Warning messages can alert people to personal risk and protective actions that can limit loss and injury. How such messages are designed, including their content, style, and structure, can affect perceptual outcomes and behavioral intent. This study examines the effect of guidance information, that is, information instructing individuals about what to do to protect themselves, on their message perceptions. We find that tornado warning messages that include protective action information significantly increase individual perceptions of self-efficacy and response efficacy. At-risk publics, especially those faced with an unfamiliar hazard, benefit from risk communication that includes both threat information and protective action guidance to aid their decision-making about tornado response.

Sutton, J; Fischer, L; Wood, MM

Tornado Warning Guidance and Graphics: Implications of the Inclusion of Protective Action Information on Perceptions and Efficacy

Weather Climate And Society

https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-21-0097.1

West Africa is a very vulnerable part of the world to the impacts of climate change due to a combination of exposure and low adaptive capacity. Climate change has induced an increase in rainfall variability which in turn has affected the availability of water resources, ecosystem services and agricultural production. To adapt to the increased aridity, farmers have used indigenous and modern coping strategies such as soil and water conservation techniques, the use of drought-tolerant crops and varieties, crop diversification, etc., and lately, climate information services (CIS). The latter, according to the discourses, has positively contributed to suitable decision-making in terms of farming, pastoral and fishing management systems. However, the scientific documentation of the engagement approaches, the uptake of the CIS and the ways the delivered information is being used, as well as feedback from the users, is lacking. Additionally, in most of the cases where CIS are introduced, the disconnect between the users and producers of the CIS seems to undercut large-scale uptake. The objective of this paper is to examine the approach used to involve stakeholders in the CIS uptake process in Senegal. We analyzed the experiences and lessons learnt in the country where various CIS products were introduced using participatory methods (stakeholder consultations, interviews, field demonstrations, training workshops, etc.) and innovative stressors (SMS, voice messages, radios, mobile applications, etc.) to effectively involve producers, technicians and policy-makers. Results showed that 16 relevant CIS have been produced out of 27 identified by the various users; 11 CIS diffusion channels have been developed out of 13 requested; 27 climate advisory bodies (MWGs) have been created in 27 districts out of 30 districts in the study zone; about 6800 users have been trained directly and indirectly to effectively use CIS and about 8500 people are receiving CIS via SMS, voice messaging and emails. The opportunities for CIS uptake as well as the challenges that may impede the long-term sustainability of CIS upscaling in the country are highlighted. Recommendations that will improve and sustain the governance system of CIS in Senegal and the rest of West Africa include the involvement of private sectors in the chain of production, delivery and training, and the inciting of producers to largely subscribe to the weather-based index insurance.

Ouedraogo, I; Diouf, NS; Ouédraogo, M; Ndiaye, O; Zougmoré, RB

Closing the Gap between Climate Information Producers and Users: Assessment of Needs and Uptake in Senegal

Climate

https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6010013

Purpose Understanding farmers' perceptions of how the climate is changing is vital to anticipating its impacts. Farmers are known to take appropriate steps to adapt only when they perceive change to be taking place. This study aims to analyse how African indigenous vegetable (AIV) farmers perceive climate change in three different agro-climatic zones (ACZs) in Kenya, identify the main differences in historical seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature trends between the zones, discuss differences in farmers' perceptions and historical trends and analyse the impact of these perceived changes and trends on yields, weeds, pests and disease infestation of AIVs. Design/methodology/approach Data collection was undertaken in focus group discussions (FGD) (N = 211) and during interviews with individual farmers (N = 269). The Mann-Kendall test and regression were applied for trend analysis of time series data (1980-2014). Analysis of variance and least significant difference were used to test for differences in mean rainfall data, while a chi-square test examined the association between farmer perceptions and ACZs. Coefficient of variation expressed as a percentage was used to show variability in mean annual and seasonal rainfall between the zones. Findings Farmers perceived that higher temperatures, decreased rainfall, late onset and early retreat of rain, erratic rainfall patterns and frequent dry spells were increasing the incidences of droughts and floods. The chi-square results showed a significant relationship between some of these perceptions and ACZs. Meteorological data provided some evidence to support farmers' perceptions of changing rainfall. No trend was detected in mean annual rainfall, but a significant increase was recorded in the semi-humid zone. A decreasing maximum temperature was noted in the semi-humid zone, but otherwise, an overall increase was detected. There were highly significant differences in mean annual rainfall between the zones. Farmers perceived reduced yields and changes in pest infestation and diseases in some AIVs to be prevalent in the dry season. This study's findings provide a basis for local and timely institutional changes, which could certainly help in reducing the adverse effects of climate change. Originality/value This is an original research paper and the historical trends, farmers' perceptions and effects of climate change on AIV production documented in this paper may also be representative of other ACZs in Kenya.

Chepkoech, W; Mungai, NW; Stöber, S; Bett, HK; Lotze-Campen, H

Farmers' perspectives: Impact of climate change on African indigenous vegetable production in Kenya

International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-07-2017-0160

In this final, collaborative paper in the Learning to be drier edition, we reflect on and draw together some of the key threads from the diverse narratives in our four site papers from across the southern Murray-Darling Basin. Our paper title, Wicked learning, draws on a recent body literature (Rittel & Webber 1973) about messy or 'wicked problems' as characterised by Dietz and Stern (1998). It picks up on our identification of the difficulty and enormity of the learning challenges being faced by communities, associated, at best, with a decade of record dry years (drought) and severely over-committed rivers. At worst, drought is occurring in combination with and as a precursor to recent, progressive drying of the Basin associated with climate change. Our research is suggestive of a need for much more learning across all segments of the adult community about '... the big picture, including the interrelationships among the full range of causal factors ...' (Australian Public Service Commission, APSC 2007: 1) underlying the presenting problem of drying. We conclude that solutions to the messy or wicked problem of drying in an interconnected Basin will lie in the social domain. This will include building a wider knowledge and acceptance of the problems and likely future risks across the Basin including all parts of communities. The problem of drying as well as its causes and solutions are multidimensional, and will involve comprehensive learning about all five key characteristics of other 'wicked' policy problems identified in previous research in the environmental arena. The narratives that we have heard identify the extreme difficulty in all four sites of rational and learned responses to being drier as the problem has unfolded. All narratives about being drier that we have heard involve a recognition of a combination of the five characteristics common to wicked problems: multidimensionality, scientific uncertainty, value conflict and uncertainty, mistrust as well as urgency. All narratives identify the importance of social learning: to be productive, to be efficient, to survive, to live with uncertainty, to be sustainable and to share. Combating the extent and effects of drying, causality aside, will require new forms of learning through new community, social and learning spaces, apart from and in addition to new technological and scientific learning.

Golding, B; Brown, M; Foley, A; Smith, E; Campbell, C; Schulz, C; Angwin, J; Grace, L

Wicked learning: Reflecting on Learning to be drier

Australian Journal Of Adult Learning

Introduction: The livestock sector is extremely important to Socioeconomic growth in Pakistan, yet it is also quite vulnerable to weather changes. Climate change reduces livestock production by changing ecosystem services such as water availability, feed quality and quantity, disease outbreaks, animal heat stress, and a decline in livestock variety and breeds. Climate change has a direct impact on ecological and animal health. As a consequence of climate change, animal diseases, and infections are becoming more widespread. With the non-linearities of climate change in the livestock industry in mind, the present study investigated the asymmetric influence of climatic and non-climatic variables on livestock productivity across Pakistan. The empirical analysis was conducted utilizing secondary time series data from 1980 to 2021. Method: The non-linear autoregressive distributive lag (NARDL) model is used to examine the asymmetric behavior of climatic variability in the livestock sector. We included CO2 emissions, mean temperature (MT), and precipitation (PERC) as climatic variables in the current study, along with additional control factors. Results and discussion: Our research discovered that CO2, MT, and PREC had asymmetries in their impacts on livestock. Variations in CO2, MT, and PREC have contradictory effects on livestock productivity in the long and short term. A percent increase in LCO2 leads to a fall in livestock production insignificantly by 1.0062% for Model I and significantly by 5.7613% and 5.3929% for Models II and III, respectively. A percent decrease in LCO2 significantly lowers livestock production by 4.1739% for Model I and improves livestock production by 8.5928% and 6.7901%, respectively, for Model II and Model III. A unit increase in MT significantly improves livestock productivity by 1.5520% and 0.8149% for Models II and III, respectively, while a unit decrease in MT insignificantly improves livestock production by 0.1316% and 0.2122% for Models II and III, respectively. A unit increase and decrease in PREC significantly lowers and insignificantly improve livestock productivity respectively by 0.002% in both cases for Model III. To protect the livestock industry from the negative effects of climate change, this study suggests that livestock producers use new environmentally friendly technologies and ecological agricultural systems.

Khurshid, N; Ajab, S; Tabash, MI; Barbulescu, M

Asymmetries in climate change and livestock productivity: non-linear evidence from autoregressive distribution lag mode

Frontiers In Sustainable Food Systems

https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2023.1139631

There are four atoll states in the world: The Republic of Kiribati, the Maldives, the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), and Tuvalu. These countries are comprised entirely of low-lying land approximately 2 m above sea level. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has recognized that atoll countries are highly vulnerable to rising sea levels due to climate change. This study aimed to clarify the relative advantages and disadvantages of possible alternatives compared to the present livelihoods of the Marshallese in their home country. We also attempted to identify the best plausible option, using few sets of possible value judgements over the evaluation criteria. The following four alternatives were examined in this study: (i) migration to the developed world, (ii) migration to other island states, (iii) land reclamation and raising, and (iv) development of floating platforms. To evaluate the performance of the four alternatives, we selected 16 criteria representing the societal conditions that would result from each alternative. The performance of each alternative per criterion was rated from 1 to 5 by a literature survey, interviews with researchers who worked on the livelihood of Marshallese immigrants in the U.S. states of Arkansas, Hawaii, and Oregon, and interviews with people knowledgeable about the behavior of the Marshallese both in their home country and in the United States as immigrants. The migration to the developed world alternative proved the best choice, followed by developing floating platforms, land reclamation and raising, and migration to other island states. We also found that migration to the developed world offered the most change to immigrants, while the alternative of land reclamation and raising resulted in the smallest change. The magnitude of anticipated change should be considered. We employed the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to experimentally evaluate four alternatives in an integrated manner and about three cases were all the criteria are equally important, social environment is more important, and personal environment is more important. With AHP, the migration to the developed world alternative yielded the highest point for all three cases examined. Notably, climate migrants do not suddenly emerge, because climate change is a slow-onset process. The Marshallese should make wise use of the available lead time to prepare for migration in the future.

Nakayama, M; Fujikura, R; Okuda, R; Fujii, M; Takashima, R; Murakawa, T; Sakai, E; Iwama, H

Alternatives for the Marshall Islands to Cope with the Anticipated Sea Level Rise by Climate Change

Journal Of Disaster Research

https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2022.p0315

In Bangladesh, rural-urban migration is widespread. Many earlier studies discussed the factors, patterns, causes, and consequences and the socio-economic and environmental impact of migration from the general perspective. However, rural-urban migration with a particular focus on particular communities or migrants' employment profiles, for instance, farmers, is poorly described. In contrast, many farmers move from rural to urban areas every year in Bangladesh. However, the factors that affect farmers' rural-to-urban migration are a primary concern to academia and key actors, as the country's economy mainly depends on agriculture and farming. This paper, therefore, aimed to identify the underlying factors of the rural-urban (R-U) migration of farmers in Bangladesh. Data for this study came from phone interviews conducted with 254 migrant farmers living in city districts in Bangladesh. We adopted a three-step approach to select and identify factors that impacted farmers' decision to move from rural to urban settings. First, we reviewed the extant literature and compiled more than 70 variables of interest relevant to farmers' migration. Second, 30 variables were selected for data collection after consultations with key informants (KIIs) and informal discussions (IDs) with farmers and local community leaders. Besides, the Q-methodology was used to assess the level of importance of the selected variables. Lastly, principal component analysis (PCA) was performed to extract salient dimensions of farmers' rural-to-urban migration, where 21 variables were detected that consistently exceeded a threshold value of 0.50 of communality for further analysis. Our findings show that six dimensions-i.e., individual, household, economic, attitudinal, spatial, and climate-induced extremes-significantly influence and contribute to rural urban migration decisions for farmers. Further, our results indicated that age, agricultural knowledge, household debt, seasonal famine/poverty (Monga), unemployment in rural areas, availability of anticipated job opportunities in urban areas, shortage of agricultural inputs, and river erosion significantly influenced farmers' decision to leave their farms in Bangladesh. Findings from this study may be used as inputs in predictive models and benchmark guidelines for assessing trends and patterns of rural-to-urban migration and for the formulation of policy and programs targeting domestic migration in Bangladesh for proper urban planning and further rural development.

Al-Maruf, A; Pervez, AKMK; Sarker, PK; Rahman, MS; Ruiz-Menjivar, J

Exploring the Factors of Farmers' Rural-Urban Migration Decisions in Bangladesh

Agriculture-Basel

https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12050722

Urban development and disaster risk are deeply linked, especially now when we are facing increasingly frequent climate change. Hence, knowledge of the potential trade-offs between urban development and disaster risk reduction (DRR) may have potential to build a resilient and sustainable future. The objectives of this study are (1) to present education for a sustainability (EfS) program and to evaluate its performance: a serious game of knowledge communication for the interactions among climate change, disaster risk, and urban development; (2) to explore factors that will influence the players' decision making in the trade-offs between urban development and DRR under an urbanization background through counterfactual scenarios constructed by a series of serious games. The Yudai Trench, once a critical component of the urban green infrastructure of ancient Guangzhou, has disappeared under rapid urban expansion, leaving the city exposed to environmental hazards caused by climate change. Is the disappearance of the Yudai Trench an inevitable event in the progress of urbanization? To answer this question, the study constructed counterfactual scenarios by recuring the historical progress through the same serious game. Gameplay involved the players' decision making with associated impacts on the urbanization progress and the DRR in diverse climate hazard scenarios. For this study, 107 undergraduates from related majors, who are also would-be policymakers, were selected as players. The methodology combined questionnaire survey and participant observation complemented by interviews. The t-test results indicated that undergraduates' knowledge levels had significant positive changes after the end of the serious game. Importantly, the results showed that the knowledge could potentially contribute to the players' decision-making process for DRR by assisting them in making pre-decision. Beside this knowledge, the results expanded the range of influencing factors and solutions reported by previous literature on DRR under an urbanization background against climate hazards by constructing counterfactual scenarios, e.g., higher economic levels and policy incentives. In this study, the serious game was evaluated as an innovative communication and the EfS method in counterfactual scenarios. These findings of the study provide a reference for future practice, policymaking, and decision making so as to help harness lessons learned from unrealized environmental hazards to support a more resilient future through informed policies and plans.

Gao, W; Guo, YW; Jiang, FY

Playing for a Resilient Future: A Serious Game Designed to Explore and Understand the Complexity of the Interaction among Climate Change, Disaster Risk, and Urban Development

International Journal Of Environmental Research And Public Health

https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18178949

Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, international financial assistance is expected to support African and other developing countries as they prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change. The impact of this finance depends on how much finance is mobilized and where it is targeted. However, there has been no comprehensive quantitative mapping of adaptation-related finance flows to African countries to date. Here we track development finance principally targeting adaptation from bilateral and multilateral funders to Africa between 2014 and 2018. We find that the amounts of finance are well below the scale of investment needed for adaptation in Africa, which is a region with high vulnerability to climate change and low adaptation capacity. Finance targeting mitigation (US$30.6 billion) was almost double that for adaptation (US$16.5 billion). The relative share of each varies greatly among African countries. More adaptation-related finance was provided as loans (57%) than grants (42%) and half the adaptation finance has targeted just two sectors: agriculture; and water supply and sanitation. Disbursement ratios for adaptation in this period are 46%, much lower than for total development finance in Africa (at 96%). These are all problematic patterns for Africa, highlighting that more adaptation finance and targeted efforts are needed to ensure that financial commitments translate into meaningful change on the ground for African communities. Key policy insights Between 2014 and 2018, adaptation-related finance committed by bilateral and multilateral funders to African countries remained well below US$5.5 billion per year, or roughly US$5 per person per year; these amounts are well below the estimates of adaptation costs in Africa. Funders have not strategically targeted support for adaptation activities towards the most vulnerable to climate change African countries. Lessons from countries that have been more successful in accessing finance point to the value of more sophisticated domestic adaptation policies and plans; of alignment with priorities of the NDC; of meeting funding requirements of specific funders; and of the strategic use of climate funds by national planners. A low adaptation finance disbursement ratio in this period in Africa (at 46%) relates to barriers impeding the full implementation of adaptation projects: low grant to loan ratio; requirements for co-financing; rigid rules of climate funds; and inadequate programming capacity within many countries.

Savvidou, G; Atteridge, A; Omari-Motsumi, K; Trisos, CH

Quantifying international public finance for climate change adaptation in Africa

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2021.1978053

The FP7 Theseus research project (2009-2013) aims to develop and assess innovative technologies and methodologies for coastal protection against erosion, flooding and environmental damages. While protection structures may help to reduce the level of hazard and the expected degree of loss, some danger of technical failures or human errors will always remain. For extreme events, the implementation of non-structural measures as early warning systems and disaster management practices is required to ensure the protection of population. During Theseus, a methodology for helping the local authorities to prepare an action plan in case of coastal flooding was developed and tested on the estuary of Gironde in France. The methodology builds over the return of experience from past events and tries to clearly identify all the stages of an evacuation and the thinking process that can lead to a robust evacuation plan. It relies on a conceptual framework - SADT-which helps to understand how data should be processed from its collection to its use in the plan. The risk scenarios were calculated for current and future conditions of the XXIst century, taking into account the effects of climate change. The methodology is supported by the OSIRIS software, prototyped during the FP5 eponymous project and later distributed by CETMEF and the French basin authorities of Loire and Meuse. The methodology for the preparation of evacuation plans was applied on a pilot city of Theseus, Bordeaux on the estuary of Gironde (France), and the software used to calculate evacuation times was tried out on Cesenatico near the Adriatic coast (Italy). This comparison verified the replicability of methodological guidelines in two different European contexts. The cultural and organizational differences and the different number of people involved underlined strong questions to be addressed when applying them. In order to assess the efficiency of an evacuation strategy and to compute the number of people successfully evacuated over time, a macroscopic model (not representing each individual vehicle but only flows of vehicles in congestion points) for the simulation of traffic congestion was used, based on the work of the University of Twente, Rijkswaterstaat and INFRAM. This model will be integrated in the Theseus decision support system for helping coastal managers to select their strategy for risk mitigation. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hissel, F; Morel, G; Pescaroli, G; Graaff, H; Felts, D; Pietrantoni, L

Early warning and mass evacuation in coastal cities

Coastal Engineering

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.11.015

Integrated conservation and management of agricultural areas affected by the current global warming represents a priority at international level following the implementation of the principles of sustainable agriculture and adaptation measures. Transylvanian Plain (TP), with an area of 395,616 ha is of great agricultural importance for Romania, but with an afforestation degree of only 6.8% and numerous degradation phenomena of farmland, it has the lowest degree of sustainability to climate change. Monitoring of agro-climatic indicators and their evolution in between 2008-2014 and the analysis of the obtained data underlie the technological development of recommendations tailored to current favorable conditions for the main crops. Results obtained show that: the thermal regime of the soils in TP is of mesic type and the hydric regime is ustic; multiannual average of temperature in soil at 10 cm depth is 11.40 degrees C, respectively at 50 cm depth is 10.24 degrees C; the average yearly air temperature is 11.17 degrees C; multiannual average of soil moisture is 0.227 m(3)/m(3); Multiannual average value of precipitation is 466.52 mm. During the studied period, compared with data series available (1961-1990; 1901-2000), clear decrease of the average quantities of rainfall especially during critical periods for crops, and increases in average temperatures for the entire year can be noticed. Between June and August the highest temperature difference were recorded, differences of +3.09 degrees C to +3.65 degrees C. There is an increase phenomenon of drought and heat; determined indicators show that most values, 61.11%, are commensurate with a semiarid climate. Aggression peaks are in February-April, July, and October-November, and for the whole period, in 19.43% of the cases are favorable and very favorable conditions for triggering erosion. Recommended ago-technical measures to limit and counteract the effects of drought, as a climatic phenomenon with major risk to agriculture in TP, refer to: i) use of a biological material resistant to water stress and heat; use of management practices favorable for accumulation of, conservation and the efficient use of water from rainfall; iii) operating a system of conservation agriculture based on soil protection and desertification avoidance.

Rusu, T; Coste, CL; Moraru, PI; Szajdak, LW; Pop, AI; Duda, BM

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRO-CLIMATIC INDICATORS AND AGRICULTURAL LANDS IN THE TRANSYLVANIAN PLAIN BETWEEN 2008-2014

Carpathian Journal Of Earth And Environmental Sciences

The salinisation of coastal areas in Bangladesh reduces livelihood options for rice intensification but offers a more suitable environment for shrimp and salt farming. Thus, farmers' salinity perspectives might vary resulting in contested land use settings that may create uncertainties for policymakers in planning adaptation initiatives to address salinisation. The aim of this study was to examine co-located farmers' salinisation perspectives (e.g., trends, causes, impacts), and to demonstrate its potential for place-based policy initiatives and research prioritisation for sustainable agricultural development in the coastal areas. Primary data were collected from randomly selected rice, shrimp and salt prodcrs/farmers in two coastal sub-districts through semi-structured interviews at the household level. Furthermore, key informant interviews were conducted with personnel from research and extension organisations at national and local levels to complement the survey results. Perceptions of the salinity extent contrasted starkly among the various types of farmers. While the majority of rice farmers (87%) perceived increased salinity, just over half of the salt and shrimp farmers perceived that salinity had decreased over the last 20 years. There was also a lack of agreement on the causes of salinity, with most rice farmers (62%) indicating anthropogenic factors as the main causes, while the majority of shrimp and salt farmers focused more on natural factors. Rice farmers (42%) also perceived a reduction in yield followed by less income (30%) under saline conditions, while shrimp farmers (70%) and salt farmers (55%) perceived production gains when high salinity prevailed. The adaptation preferences to combat salinity were also at odds between different types of farmers, with rice farmers having adaptation preferences for the development of salinity-tolerant rice varieties that should have greater tolerance at the reproductive stages, while shrimp and salt farmers' preferences were for engineering-based solutions to prevent seawater inundation during cyclones. Thus, research and extension services on integrated coastal resources management need to consider tailoring their approach to accommodate varied livelihood perspectives of salinity, as this place-based approach could accelerate the pace of achieving the sustainable development goals (SDGs), such as SDG-1, SDG-2 and SDG-3 due to a more strategic targeting of farmer types and their context.

Islam, MA; de Bruyn, LL; Koech, R; Warwick, N

Contextualisation of salinisation and adaptation preferences in the coastal areas of Bangladesh: Bringing together farmers' salinity perspectives into place-based policy initiatives

Land Degradation & Development

https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.4431

The Lake Taihu basin (36 895 km(2)), one of the most developed regions in China located in the hinterland of the Yangtze River Delta, has experienced increasing flood risk. The largest flood in history occurred in 1999 with a return period estimate of 200 years, considerably larger than the current capacity of the flood defense with a design return period of 50 years. Due to its flat saucer-like terrain, the capacity of the flood control system in this basin depends on flood control infrastructures and peripheral tidal conditions. The Huangpu River, an important river of the basin connecting Lake Taihu upstream and Yangtze River estuaries downstream, drains two-fifths of the entire basin. Since the water level in the Huangpu River is significantly affected by the high tide conditions in estuaries, constructing an estuary gate is considered an effective solution for flood mitigation. The main objective of this paper is to assess the potential contributions of the proposed Huangpu Gate to the flood control capacity of the basin. To achieve this goal, five different scenarios of flooding conditions and the associated gate operations are considered by using numerical model simulations. Results of quantitative analyses show that the Huangpu Gate is effective for evacuating floodwaters. It can help to reduce both peak values and duration of high water levels in Lake Taihu to benefit surrounding areas along the Taipu Canal and the Huangpu River. The contribution of the gate to the flood control capacity is closely associated with its operation modes and duration. For the maximum potential contribution of the gate, the net outflow at the proposed site is increased by 52 %. The daily peak level is decreased by a maximum of 0.12m in Lake Taihu, by maxima of 0.260.37 and 0.46-0.60m in the Taipu Canal and the Huangpu River, respectively, and by 0.05-0.39m in the surrounding areas depending on the local topography. It is concluded that the proposed Huangpu Gate can reduce flood risk in the Lake Taihu basin, especially in those low-lying surrounding areas along the Taipu Canal and the Huangpu River significantly, which is of great benefit to the flood management in the basin and the Yangtze River Delta.

Zhang, HH; Liu, SG; Ye, JC; Yeh, PJF

Model simulations of potential contribution of the proposed Huangpu Gate to flood control in the Lake Taihu basin of China

Hydrology And Earth System Sciences

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5339-2017

Purpose The purpose of this study is to evaluate rice farmers' perceptions on the manifestations of the climate change and identify efficient strategies and determinants of adoption of these strategies in the Republic of Benin. Design/methodology/approach Surveys were conducted using participatory research appraisal tools and techniques, such as direct observation, individual interviews and field visits through a questionnaire for data collection. A total of 418 rice farmers across 39 villages located in the three climatic zones of the Republic of Benin were interviewed. Farmers' perceptions, temperature from 1952 to 2018 and rainfall from 1960 to 2018 data obtained from meteorological stations were analysed using descriptive and inferences statistics. Findings All the surveyed farmers were aware of climate change and perceived diverse manifestations including the delay in rainfall regarded as the most important risk. They perceived that deforestation, no respect for the laws of nature and desacralization of morals, no respect for cultures and the traditional rainmakers are the main causes of climate change. The disruption of agricultural calendar and the reduction in rice yield were perceived as the main impacts of climate change in rice production. They used various approaches to adapt and mitigate climate change effects. The adoption of adaptation strategies was influenced either negatively or positively by the household size, land size, education level, membership to rice farmer's association, training in rice production, access to extension services, use of improved varieties and the location in climatic zones. Research limitations/implications For each climatic zone of the Republic of Benin, weather data were collected in only one meteorological station. Practical implications The study showed that it is important to educate rice farmers on the scientific causes of climate change for better resilience. There is an urgent need to train rice farmers in irrigation and water management techniques to cope with climate variability. To promote irrigation, the authors suggest the establishment of a subsidy and credit mechanism by the government. Factors that influenced adoption of efficient adaptation strategies to climate events must be taken into account for future adaptation policies in the Republic of Benin. Originality/value This study provided an overview of the perceptions and adaptations of rice farmers along the climatic gradient in the Republic of Benin. Therefore, the knowledge of the determining factors of the adaptation strategies used by rice farmers could be used in the setting up of effective climate change resilience policies in Benin.

Gbemavo, CDSJ; Toffa, J; Tchakpa, C; Loko, YLE; Djedatin, G; Ewedje, EE; Orobiyi, A; Sedah, P; Sabot, F

Rice farmers' perceptions and response to climate variability, and determinants of adaptation strategies in the Republic of Benin

International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-06-2021-0059

CONTEXT: Agricultural vulnerability assessment is a comprehensive and powerful analytical tool to locate hotspots with states of susceptibility to harm and powerlessness of agricultural system. It plays an important role in guiding policy makers to plan and implement adaptation practices to mitigate potential climate risks to crop. However, due to the diversity in the methodology of vulnerability assessment, there are still knowledge gaps in assessing and comparing crop vulnerability to climate in different regions of the world, including Australia.OBJECTIVE: Our main objectives were to: (1) present a vulnerability analytical method for wheat yield, which can be applied to different areas where long-term crop yield and climate data are available. (2) quantify temporal changes of the vulnerability of wheat yield to historical climate. (3) identify the most vulnerable region in study area to provide guidance for climate mitigation.METHODS: Our study developed an indicator-based method using exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to assess the vulnerability of crop yield. We used the long-term recorded wheat yield data, combining with comprehensive exposure index to assess climate vulnerability of historical yield with a case study area of south-eastern Australia's wheat belt.RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The results showed that from the 1930s to the 1990s, both climate exposure and sensitivity had large inter-annual variations with no significant trends detected. However, adaptive capacity increased by 34% from 1930s to 1950s, 54% from 1950s to 1970s, and 54% from 1970s to 1990s. By contrast, climate vulnerability across the wheat belt decreased by 13% from 1930s to 1950s, 15% from 1950s to 1970s, and 33% from 1970s to 1990s. This is mainly due to increased adaptive capacity with the improvement of agronomic management practices, technological and socio-economic progress. We identified the areas with the highest vulnerability were in the northwestern parts of wheat belt while the least vulnerable areas located in the southeast.SIGNIFICANCE: We expect that these identified vulnerable hotspots can be used by different landholders to allocate natural resources and policymakers to plan the priority mitigation to adapt to climate change in the local scale. Moreover, the method of vulnerability assessment used in this study can be applied to other regions around the world where long-term crop yield and climate data are available.

Li, SY; Wang, B; Feng, PY; Liu, D; Li, LC; Shi, LJ; Yu, Q

Assessing climate vulnerability of historical wheat yield in south-eastern Australia's wheat belt

Agricultural Systems

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103340

Objectives: After Typhoon Morakot struck Taiwan in 2009, thousands of Taiwanese citizens were displaced to shelters for several weeks. Others were placed in urban communities where they had family members. This study aimed to investigate serological status in both groups and identify risk factors associated with seroconversion of infectious diseases. Design: A longitudinal survey. Setting: All experimental and clinical investigations were performed in a tertiary teaching hospital. Participants: A total of 288 displaced persons (96 males and 192 females) were recruited and complete follow-up data through two rounds of sampling were collected. The average age was 58.42 years (range 31-87 years). Interventions: First, serum specimens were collected between December 2009 and January 2010, 4-5 months after the typhoon. The second round of specimen collection was carried out after 6 months. Primary and secondary outcome measures: The primary outcome measured was serological status of vaccine-preventable droplet-borne infectious diseases (ie, measles, mumps, rubella) and water-borne diseases (ie, amoebiasis and leptospirosis). The secondary outcome was identification of risk factors for seroconversion using univariate and multivariate analyses. Results: Complete data were available for all 288 displaced persons (114 from the shelter group; 174 from the community group). Seroconversion of Entamoeba histolytica was observed in 128 (44.4%) participants, with a significantly higher rate in the shelter group than in the community group (56.1% vs 36.8%; p=0.001). There were 10 cases of rubella seroconversion. After adjusting for medical history, hypertension and hyperlipidaemia, shelter stay was associated with higher risk for seroconversion (OR=2.055, 95% CI 1.251 to 3.374; p=0.004). Amoebiasis was more evident in the shelter group, although the manifestations were mild. Conclusions: Our results suggested that (1) a clean water supply is essential postdisaster, especially in crowded shelters, and (2) vaccination programmes should be extended to populations at higher risk for post-disaster displacement or to those with weakened immune status.

Lin, CY; Chen, TC; Dai, CY; Yu, ML; Lu, PL; Yen, JH; Chen, YH

Serological investigation to identify risk factors for post-flood infectious diseases: a longitudinal survey among people displaced by Typhoon Morakot in Taiwan

Bmj Open

https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2014-007008

While knowledge coproduction between climate scientists and climate information users has become a common theme in the climate services discourse, the interface between climate service providers and users is an aspect of climate services projects that still calls for more attention. This is due in part to the dominance of the physical sciences in these projects, as well as the prevalence of an instrumental and narrow interpretation of coproduction. Following up on the World Meteorological Organisation's Guidance on Good Practices for Climate Services User Engagement, and incorporating insights from the social and human sciences, we develop a coproduction framework for climate services to help establish a smooth and effective interface between scientists and stakeholders. This framework is intended for research and innovation projects developing climate knowledge and services. The coproduction framework comprises three realms: (i) engagement using various communication channels; (ii) involvement through interviews, workshops and webinars; and (iii) empowerment of stakeholders and scientists through focused relationships. This incremental participatory process involves stakeholders in increasingly profound ways: from a broad stakeholder group identified through awareness-raising campaigns, on to potential users with whom we exchange knowledge, and then to a set of champion users who co-develop the service and pioneer its use in decision-making processes. This paper illustrates the application of the coproduction framework in PRIMAVERA, an EU H2020-funded project for designing, running and testing new high-resolution global climate models and evaluating their outputs. While PRIMAVERA provided ground breaking scientific findings that could potentially benefit various stakeholders and support climate risk assessment activities, these results are highly specialised and their added value has yet to be assessed. Accordingly, the user engagement component of the project faced the challenging task of both motivating stakeholders' participation in the project and motivating future users of potential services based on PRIMAVERA data. The trial of the framework in PRIMAVERA provided key lessons for enhancing coproduction in research and innovation projects. We demonstrate how the role of scientists gradually shifted in this coproduction cycle from masters of knowledge (Roux et al., 2017) to co-learners, and how the involvement of the project's interdisciplinary team and their interaction with stakeholders served to move the project towards transdisciplinary knowledge production.

Bojovic, D; St Clair, AL; Christel, I; Terrado, M; Stanzel, P; Gonzalez, P; Palin, EJ

Engagement, involvement and empowerment: Three realms of a coproduction framework for climate services

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102271

Mayors worldwide are currently actively engaged in transnationally coordinated efforts to address climate change, pandemics, terrorism, and other global challenges, and a significant amount of scholarly attention has been paid to this development in the fields of international relations, urban studies, and security studies. Yet, curiously, the pioneering work of the mayors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in their Mayors for Peace campaign and other related efforts to promote a vision of a world without nuclear weapons since the 1970s has scarcely been examined in city diplomacy research. Drawing largely on archival research in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, this article addresses one of the key issues in the field-the legitimacy of city diplomacy. How do mayors justify the use of the limited resources at their city hall's disposal for a global campaign associated with a policy goal that is beyond their jurisdiction? In the defense and security fields, where national leaders are the primary policymakers and deciders, this question of legitimacy is especially acute. The cases of Hiroshima and Nagasaki's city diplomacy for the elimination of nuclear weapons are no exception, despite the fact that their legitimacy has often been taken for granted given the two cities' unique historical experience. The mayors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki have consistently, and at times jointly and at times separately, sought to establish their legitimacy locally, nationally, and internationally. Their city diplomacy since the 1970s has successively revealed several different registers of legitimacy. Each register of legitimacy-enacted through cooperation with the national government; confrontation with the national government; and collaboration with cities, nongovernmental organizations, and individuals outside Japan, respectively-is relational and has entailed distinctively spatiotemporal reconfigurations. While city diplomacy researchers have persuasively argued that the emergence of city diplomacy is emblematic of the structural transformation of the world order in which actors and issues are not simply local, national, or global, the cases of Hiroshima and Nagasaki's city diplomacy serve as a reminder that the legitimacy of city diplomacy demands consistent relational recalibration through which the current world order is reimagined.

Miyazaki, H

Hiroshima and Nagasaki as models of city diplomacy

Sustainability Science

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-021-00968-1

Most of Southern Africa is affected by extreme weather events, droughts and floods being the most common. The frequency of floods and droughts in Southern Africa in general, of which the Zambezi River Basin is part of, has been linked to climate change. Droughts and floods impact on the natural environment, and directly and indirectly impact on livelihoods. In the Middle Zambezi River Basin, which is located between Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams, extreme weather events are exacerbated by human activities, in particular the operation of both the Kariba and the Cahora Bassa reservoirs. To understand better, whether, and in what ways extreme weather events impact on livelihoods, this study used both quantitative and qualitative research methods to analyse rainfall variability and coping strategies used by households in the river basin. Data collection was done using semi-structured interviews, focus group discussions and structured questionnaires which were administered to 144 households. An analysis of rainfall variability and Cahora Bassa water level over 23 years was carried out. The study found that perceptions of households were that average rainfall has decreased over the years, and dry-spells have become more frequent. Furthermore, households perceived flood events to have increased over the last two decades. However, the analysis of rainfall variability revealed that the average rainfall received between 1988 and 2011 had not changed but the frequency of dry-spells and floods had increased. The occurrence of floods in the study area was found to be linked to heavy local rain and backflow from Cahora Bassa dam. The study found that households adopted a number of strategies to cope with droughts and floods, such as vegetable farming and crop production in the floodplain, taking on local jobs that brought in wages, planting late and livestock disposals. Some households also resorted to out-migration on a daily basis to Zambia or Mozambique. The study concluded that coping mechanisms were found to be inflexible and poorly suited to adapt to floods and droughts. The study recommends the implementation of adaptation measures such as the cultivation of drought-resistant crop varieties, irrigation and off-farm employment opportunities. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bola, G; Mabiza, C; Goldin, J; Kujinga, K; Nhapi, I; Makurira, H; Mashauri, D

Coping with droughts and floods: A Case study of Kanyemba, Mbire District, Zimbabwe

Physics And Chemistry Of The Earth

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2013.09.019

The increase in the number of natural disasters that has been observed in recent decades around the world under the influence of increasing anthropogenic impact on the environment, not only often causes significant damage to the economy and infrastructure of the territories, but also causes people to die and their mass migrations. In the light of these trends, the environmental situation is increasingly becoming the subject of scientific interest of researchers of various specialties: not only climatologists, but also economists and demographers. However, despite the increasing publication activity, in particular, on problems of population migration caused by climate change and environmental problems, there are significant gaps in the theoretical and methodological aspect. Our analysis of the scientific discourse (mostly English-speaking) showed that the discrepancies concern not only the question of which immigrants should be classified as environmental or climate migrants, but also the very term environmental migrants, as well as the legal issue of the necessity and legality of providing such persons of refugee status. It has been established that at the moment environmental refugees do not actually have and never had refugee status, either in accordance with the relevant UN Convention or in accordance with the national legislation of any country. The article attempts to systematize and analyze the existing theoretical and methodological approaches to this problem and, on its basis, gives recommendations regarding their application. The features of statistical accounting for environmental migrants are established. The main difficulties of identifying and identifying those migration processes that resulted from changes in the environment are identified, since along with natural factors, a combination of other socioeconomic factors, such as low living standards or poverty, often influence decision-making on resettlement. The principles that should be followed when organizing environmental migration statistics at the national level are given. Two groups of existing international sources of quantitative data on environmental migration are described: a bibliographic database containing materials and publications on environmental migration, as well as a database of quantitative data that provide information on the number of displaced persons. The relationship between climate change and the impact on the quality of life of the population has been identified. The negative impact of climate change on the level and quality of life of the population was identified primarily in rural areas, which led to an increase in the scale and deepening of poverty, and also caused the migration of the rural population.

Lukyanets, AS; Ryazantsev, SV; Maksimova, AS; Moiseeva, EM; Manshin, RV

Theoretical, methodological and statistical problems of studying environmental migration

Amazonia Investiga

Problem: Global warming has emerged as one of the new century's top planning challenges. But it is far from clear how state and local governments in the United States can best address climate change through planning. Purpose: As of 2008, 29 states had prepared some sort of climate change plan, and more than 170 local governments had joined the Cities for Climate Protection (CCP) campaign that requires that a plan be developed. This article analyzes this first generation of climate change plans and seeks to assess the goals being set, the measures included or left out, issues surrounding implementation, and the basic strengths and weaknesses of state and local climate change planning to date. Methods: I conducted this research by analyzing planning documents as well as interviewing state and local officials by telephone. I analyzed the plans of three types of governments: all states with planning documents on climate change; cities with populations of over 500,000 that are members of the CCP campaign; and selected smaller cities that are CCP members. Results and conclusions: Most plans set emissions-reduction goals, establish emission inventories, green public sector operations, and recommend a range of other measures. Many recent plans have been developed through extensive stakeholder processes and present very detailed lists of recommendations with quantified emissions benefits. But emissions-reduction goals vary widely, many proposed actions are voluntary, few resources have been allocated, and implementation of most measures has not yet taken place. Most plans do not address adaptation to a changing climate. Officials see rapidly growing public awareness of the issue and general support for climate change planning, but reluctance to change personal behavior. Takeaway for practice: Future climate change planning should (a) set goals that can adequately address the problem; (b) establish long-term planning frameworks in which progress toward these goals can be monitored on a regular basis and actions revised as needed; (c) include the full range of measures needed to reduce and adapt to climate change; (d) ensure implementation of recommended actions through commitment of resources, revised regulation, incentives for reducing emissions, and other means; and (e) develop strategies to deepen public awareness of the need for fundamental changes in behavior, for example regarding motor vehicle use. Research support: This research was supported by the University of California, Davis Department of Environmental Design.

Wheeler, S

State and Municipal Climate Change Plans: The First Generation

Journal Of The American Planning Association

https://doi.org/10.1080/01944360802377973

This paper attempts to assess the vulnerability to climate change of human communities in selected mouzas of Sagar Island, South 24 Parganas District of India. A primary household survey has been conducted to collect data on socio-demographic profile, livelihood strategy, health, food, water, social network, natural disaster and climate variation indicators, were selected for Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and Livelihood Vulnerability Index-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (LVI-IPCC) analyses to measure and compare the vulnerability of mouzas (administrative unit) currently suffering from frequent flooding, coastal erosion and embankment breaching on an annual basis. Secondary data collected from the Indian Meteorological Department, the Water Resources Information System of India and the Global Sea Level Observing System have been used to identify dynamics of climate change by employing statistical and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. A GPS survey has been conducted to identify locations of embankment breaching, and satellite images obtained from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and U.S. Geological Survey (NASA USGS) Government website have been applied to shoreline and land use change detection, using a supervised maximum likelihood classification. The results indicate that the study area has experienced increasing temperature, changing precipitation patterns, rise in sea level, higher storm surges, shoreline change, constant land loss, embankment breaching and changing land use, which have had impact on vulnerability, particularly of poorer people. The LVI (0.48 to 0.68) and LVI-IPCC (0.04 to 0.14) scores suggest that the populations of Dhablat, Bankimnagar, Sumatinagar, Muri Ganga and Sibpur mouzas are highly vulnerable (LVI scores of 0.60 to 0.68 and LVI-IPCC scores of 0.11 to 0.14) to climate change both because the communities are more exposed to it, and because poor access to food, health facilities and water makes them extremely sensitive to it and lowers their adaptive capacity. The findings of this study could be crucial to framing further development and adaptation strategies relating to climate change, and to safeguarding the estuarine ecosystem and the vulnerable population.

Mukherjee, N; Siddique, G; Basak, A; Roy, A; Mandal, MH

Climate Change and Livelihood Vulnerability of the Local Population on Sagar Island, India

Chinese Geographical Science

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-019-1042-2

The studies that quantify the human and economic costs of increasing exposure of cities to various natural hazards consider climate change together with increasing levels of population and economic activity, but assume constant urban extent. Accurate estimates of the potential losses due to changing exposure of cities, however, require that we know where they will grow in the future. Here, we present the first-ever estimates of the changing exposure of urban infrastructure to floods and droughts due to urban land expansion from 2000 to 2030. The percentage of the global urban land that lies within the low elevation coastal zone (LECZ) increases only slightly to 13% by 2030; nonetheless, this corresponds to a 230% increase in the amount of urban land within the LECZ (from 71,000 km(2) to 234,000 km(2)). In 2000, about 30% of the global urban land (i.e., nearly 200,000 km(2)) was located in the high-frequency flood zones; by 2030, this will reach 40% (i.e., over 700,000 km(2)). The emerging coastal metropolitan regions in Africa and Asia will be larger than those in the developed countries and will have larger areas exposed to flooding. The urban extent in drylands will increase by nearly 300,000 km(2), reaching almost 500,000 km(2). Overall, without factoring in the potential impacts from climate change, the extent of urban areas exposed to flood and drought hazards will increase, respectively, 2.7 and almost 2 times by 2030. Globally, urban land exposed to both floods and droughts is expected to increase over 250%. There are significant geographical variations in the rates and magnitudes of urban expansion exposed to floods or droughts or both. Several policy options exist to safeguard urban infrastructure from flood and drought hazards. These range from directing development away from flood- or drought-prone zones to large-scale adoption of green infrastructure (or eco-efficient infrastructure). Decisions, taken today on managing urban growth in locations exposed to these hazards, can make a big difference in mitigating likely losses due to floods and droughts in the near future. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Güneralp, B; Güneralp, I; Liu, Y

Changing global patterns of urban exposure to flood and drought hazards

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.002

Despite mitigation and adaptation efforts, the residual risks of climate change will continue to impact the most vulnerable communities globally. Highly exposed regions, such as the Pacific Islands, will continue to experience profound negative loss and damage as a result of climate change, which will challenge current ways of life. Knowledge on the extent to which regional and national climate change polices can identify and respond to non-economic loss and damage (NELD) is limited. From the perspectives of stakeholders in the Pacific Islands region, this research aims to gain insights into how regional and national policies are responding to NELD, as the well as the barriers, shortcomings, and requirements for future responses. Utilising a mixed qualitative-quantitative approach, this research explores the perspectives of expert informants, including those from the government, donors and development partners, civil society, intergovernmental organisations, and other relevant bodies, such as universities. The key findings of this study indicate that current policy responses include a regional policy that integrates disaster and climate change losses, national efforts to preserve traditional and local knowledge, national adaptation and resilience planning, community-based projects, and relocation and resettlement. Additionally, NELD is a relatively new concept for policymakers, practitioners, and researchers, and it is difficult to conceptualise the diversity of issues related to NELD in the region. Owing to this poor understanding, a key gap relates to the dominance of the economic lens when characterising climate-induced impacts in the region. As such, there is a limited holistic consideration of climate change impacts, and thus a limited appreciation of the interrelated factors of NELD within policy responses that then cascade towards communities. Finally, the paper outlines key policy insights as follows: policies on integration, adaptation, resilience planning, relocation and resettlement have advanced; the economic lens dominates when characterising climate-induced impacts on the region; there is a limited appreciation of the interrelated factors of NELD; and there exists a need to account for residual and intangible losses to land, culture, traditional knowledge, biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human agency. The insights gained from this research can provide a practical basis for guiding local to regional action and help support and design comprehensive risk management solutions in order to address NELD associated with climate change.

Chandra, A; McNamara, KE; Clissold, R; Tabe, T; Westoby, R

Climate-Induced Non-Economic Loss and Damage: Understanding Policy Responses, Challenges, and Future Directions in Pacific Small Island Developing States

Climate

https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11030074

Asia and Africa have large groups of smallholder farmers. They are the main body of the adaptation to climate change in regional agriculture. Because of small management scale and weak accumulating capacity, smallholder farmers generally lack the ability to resist natural disasters and adapt to climate change. Understanding what factors impact on smallholders' perception of and adaptation to climate change are critical to appropriate adaptation strategies to reduce damage. This study analyzed how individual, environmental factors and barriers affected the perception of and adaptation to climate change on Chinese sugarcane smallholders in the higher level of productivity and the traditional smallholder environment. We systematically collected data on smallholders' characteristics and climate change adaptation through questionnaires and household surveys from 750 sugarcane smallholders in five national key support counties in Guangxi, China. The results showed that the level of Chinese sugarcane smallholders' perception and adaptation was relatively poor. Only 69.9% of the sugarcane smallholders perceived climate change, and 42.0% of them had consciously adopted adaptation measures. The developments of productivity and agricultural technology in China could not improve the smallholders' climate change perception and adaptation. The Heckman two-stage model results showed that the groups of sugarcane smallholders with poor terrain, non-Yao households, younger ages, smaller household sizes, higher household education levels and no migrant workers were better able to perceive climate change. Young-aged sugarcane smallholders with rich planting experiences were more likely to adopt adaptive measures. Inter-villager communication was the main channel for sugarcane smallholders to perceive and adapt to climate change, and the positive correlation coefficients reached 0.247 and 0.225, respectively. Trapped in Chinese traditional smallholder concept, sugarcane smallholders in Guangxi lacked the willingness to actively adapt to climate change. Even if productivity and agricultural technologies were developed, information, technical and financial barriers of smallholder adaptation to climate change had remained. Therefore, it is believed that the local government and well-adapted sugarcane smallholders should play the main role and improve participation degree, to stimulate the enthusiasm of sugarcane smallholders in China to adapt to climate change. The results of this study have references for other regions where smallholders are widely distributed in Asia and Africa.

Chen, Y; Yang, JY; Wang, Y; Qi, J; Luan, QZ

The impact on climate change perception and adaptation of smallholder concepts: Evidence from a sugarcane community, China

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2023.107213

To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA(1) project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, and System restructuring, which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. The framework facilitates improved integrated assessments of the potential impacts and plausible adaptation policy choices (including migration) under uncertain future changing conditions. The concept, methods, and processes presented are transferable to other sub-national socio-ecological settings with multi-scale challenges. (C) 2018 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Kebede, AS; Nicholls, RJ; Allan, A; Arto, I; Cazcarro, I; Fernandes, JA; Hill, CT; Hutton, CW; Kay, S; Lázár, AN; Macadam, I; Palmer, M; Suckall, N; Tompkins, EL; Vincent, K; Whitehead, PW

Applying the global RCP-SSP-SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.368

Rice production in Nigeria is vulnerable to climate risks and rice farmers over time have experienced the risks and their respective impacts on rice farming. Rice farmers have also responded to perceived climate risks with strategies believed to be climate-smart. Farmers' perception of climate risks is an important first step of determining any action to be taken to counteract the negative effects of climate change on agriculture. Studies on the link between perceived climate risks and farmers' response strategies are increasing. However, there are limited studies on the determinants of rice farmers' perception of climate events. The paper therefore examined climate change perception and uptake of climate-smart agriculture in rice production in Ebonyi State, Nigeria using cross-sectional data from 347 rice farmers in an important rice-producing area in Nigeria. Principal component analysis, multivariate probit regression model and descriptive statistics were adopted for data analysis. Perceived climate events include increased rainfall intensity, prolonged dry seasons, frequent floods, rising temperature, severe windstorms, unpredictable rainfall pattern and distribution, late onset rain, and early cessation of rain. Farmers' socioeconomic, farm and institutional characteristics influenced their perception of climate change. Additionally, rice farmers used a variety of climate-smart practices and technologies to respond to the perceived climate events. Such climate-smart practices include planting improved rice varieties, insurance, planting different crops, livelihood diversification, soil and water conservation techniques, adjusting planting and harvesting dates, irrigation, reliance on climate information and forecasts, planting on the nursery, appropriate application of fertilizer and efficient and effective use of pesticides. These climate-smart agricultural measures were further delineated into five broad packages using principal component analysis. These packages include crop and land management practices, climate-based services and irrigation, livelihood diversification and soil fertility management, efficient and effective use of pesticide and planting on the nursery. High fertilizer costs, lack of access to inputs, insufficient land, insufficient capital, pests and diseases, floods, scorching sun, high labour cost, insufficient climate information, and poor extension services were the barriers to uptake of climate-smart agriculture in rice production. Rice farmers should be supported to implement climate-smart agriculture in rice production in order to achieve the objectives of increased rice productivity and income, food security, climate resilience and mitigation.

Onyeneke, RU; Amadi, MU; Njoku, CL; Osuji, EE

Climate Change Perception and Uptake of Climate-Smart Agriculture in Rice Production in Ebonyi State, Nigeria

Atmosphere

https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12111503

Problem: Cities play a fundamental role in the production of greenhouse gases and, as a result, are places where proactive mitigation and adaptation can occur. While increasing numbers of municipalities have revised or developed climate action plans (CAPs), our understanding of the impetus to plan for the climate challenge, processes for creating climate plans, and their resultant form remains limited. Purpose: We analyzed municipal CAPs to understand both their processes and their products, including the extent to which they represent innovation in planning. We ask the following questions: 1) Why do localities decide to undertake climate action planning, and what are the plans' chief drivers and obstacles? 2) How have localities structured their climate action planning processes? 3) How frequently are particular types of actions included in local CAPs, and how do localities determine which to adopt? Methods: We read and evaluated the content of 20 CAPs from municipalities of a range of sizes and locations using a scoring matrix, reconciling coding differences. We also interviewed 16 individuals associated with 15 of the plans and coded notes from these interviews to identify themes relevant to the processes of plan development. Results and conclusions: There is great diversity in what constitutes a CAP. Some plans are motivational documents, while others are extremely detailed implementation plans with concrete goals, clear objectives, and well-reasoned methods. The decision to prepare a CAP reflects the existence of local political will and leadership, which also influences the planning processes used, the form of the resultant plan, and the actions it identifies. We found CAPs to rely heavily on well-known land use and transportation solutions to the climate challenge such as enhanced transit, compact community design, and green building codes, to be implemented both by local government and the broader community. Informants reported that their CAPs favored actions that were highly visible (e.g., tree planting) or produced immediate results (e.g., energy or cost savings from weatherization). Takeaway for practice: The CAPs we studied were special-purpose plans, and planning departments and planning commissions were not central to plan development in the majority of cases reviewed here. We advise professional planners to involve themselves more in CAP processes. Research support: We obtained funding for this project through a faculty enhancement grant from Portland State University.

Bassett, E; Shandas, V

Innovation and Climate Action Planning

Journal Of The American Planning Association

https://doi.org/10.1080/01944363.2010.509703

We surveyed the literature to assess the state of knowledge with regard to the (presumed) benefits or avoided damages of reducing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases to progressively lower levels. The survey included only published studies addressing global impacts of climate change; studies that only addressed regional impacts were not included. The metric we used for change in climate is increase in global mean temperature (GMT). The focus of the analysis centred on determining the general shape of the damage curve, expressed as a function of GMT. Studies in sea level rise, agriculture, water resources, human health, energy, terrestrial ecosystems productivity, forestry, biodiversity, and marine ecosystems productivity were examined. In addition, we analysed several studies that aggregate results across sectors. Results are presented using metrics as reported in the surveyed studies and thus are not aggregated. We found that the relationships between GMT and impacts are not consistent across sectors. Some of the sectors exhibit increasing adverse impacts with increasing GMT, in particular coastal resources, biodiversity, and possibly marine ecosystem productivity. Some sectors are characterised by a parabolic relationship between temperature and impacts (benefits at lower GMT increases, damages at higher GMT increases), in particular, agriculture, terrestrial ecosystem productivity, and possibly forestry. The relationship between global impacts and increase in GMT for water, health, energy, and aggregate impacts appears to be uncertain. One consistent pattern is that beyond an approximate 3-4degreesC increase in GMT, all of the studies we examined, with the possible exception of forestry, show increasing adverse impacts. Thus, in total, it appears likely that there are increasing adverse impacts at higher increases in GMT. We were unable to determine the relationship between total impacts and climate change up to a 3-4degreesC increase in GMT. There are important uncertainties in the studies we surveyed that prevent us from a precise identification of 3-4degreesC as the critical temperature transition range, beyond which damages are adverse and increasing. We are confident in general however, that beyond several degrees of GMT, damages tend to be adverse and increasing. We conclude by suggesting some priorities for future research that, if undertaken, would further our understanding of how impacts are apt to vary with increases in GMT. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hitz, S; Smith, J

Estimating global impacts from climate change

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.04.010

The project Further Development of the National Adaptation Geo-Information System started in 2017 and was coordinated by the Hungarian Mining and Geological Survey's National Adaptation Centre Department. Module C3 of the project dealt directly with the climate vulnerability of the tourism sector in Hungary. The main objective of this article is to present the methodological background of the research project for the analysis and assessment of the climate vulnerability of the tourism sector and its components, i.e. sensitivity of the sector, potential impacts of climate change on tourism and adaptability of local communities and economies. The main objective was to provide local and national actors of the sector with a useable methodology to quantitatively assess their vulnerability to climate change. The module analysed these aspects through complex indices. Beyond analysing the current situation, the project tried to model future conditions. The narrative and cartographic results are based on the CIVAS methodology. It provides thematic maps in microregional resolution at the national and, in settlement resolution, at the local level. The settlement resolution was only generated for three pilot regions: the Balaton region, the Mdtra-Biikk recreation area and the Pecs urban area. The calculated values concerned exposure, sensitivity, impacts, adaptability and vulnerability. The analyses focused on three time windows: the current situation, the period 2021-2050 and the period 2071-2100. The data for micro-regional and settlement level climate exposure, sensitivity, impacts, adaptive capacity and climate vulnerability were determined using a combination of two meteorological models (EC-EARTH, CNRM-CM5) and two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). The latters were selected from the four Representative Concentration Pathways of the IPCC's 5th Assessment Report. The parallel use of more models and scenarios (and their combinations) increases reliability and helps to produce more realistic projections. The analytical methodology presented in the article should only be a start. Its future extension could further enhance its validity and usefulness. The existing and potential impacts of climate change on the sector and the lack of preparatory, adaptation or prevention measures underline the need for deepening and disseminating a relational knowledge base in Hungary. To this end, the results of this research can serve as the first steps.

Süto, A; Fejes, L

Territorial differencies in existing and potential climate vulnerability of the tourism sector in Hungary

Ter Es Tarsadalom

https://doi.org/10.17649/TET.33.3.3178

Climate change is projected to have severe implications for smallholder agriculture in Africa, with increased temperatures, increased drought and flooding occurrence, and increased rainfall variability. Given these projections, there is a need to identify effective strategies to help rural communities adapt to climatic risks. Yet, relatively little research has examined the politics and social dynamics around knowledge and sources of information about climate-change adaptation with smallholder farming communities. This paper uses a political ecology approach to historically situate rural people's experiences with a changing climate. Using the concept of the co-production of knowledge, we examine how Malawian smallholder farmers learn, perceive, share and apply knowledge about a changing climate, and what sources they draw on for agroecological methods in this context. As well, we pay particular attention to agricultural knowledge flows within and between households. We ask two main questions: Whose knowledge counts in relation to climate-change adaptation? What are the political, social and environmental implications of these knowledge dynamics? We draw upon a long-term action research project on climate-change adaptation that involved focus groups, interviews, observations, surveys, and participatory agroecology experiments with 425 farmers. Our findings are consistent with other studies, which found that agricultural knowledge sources were shaped by gender and other social inequalities, with women more reliant on informal networks than men. Farmers initially ranked extension services as important sources of knowledge about farming and climate change. After farmers carried out participatory agroecological research, they ranked their own observation and informal farmer networks as more important sources of knowledge. Contradictory ideas about climate-change adaptation, linked to various positions of power, gaps of knowledge and social inequalities make it challenging for farmers to know how to act despite observing changes in rainfall. Participatory agroecological approaches influenced adaptation strategies used by smallholder farmers in Malawi, but most still maintained the dominant narrative about climate-change causes, which focused on local deforestation by rural communities. Smallholder farmers in Malawi are responsible for <1% of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet our results show that the farmers often blame their own rural communities for changes in deforestation and rainfall patterns. Researchers need to consider differences knowledge and power between scientists and farmers and the contradictory narratives at work in communities to foster long-term change.

Kerr, RB; Nyantakyi-Frimpong, H; Dakishoni, L; Lupafya, E; Shumba, L; Luginaah, I; Snapp, SS

Knowledge politics in participatory climate change adaptation research on agroecology in Malawi

Renewable Agriculture And Food Systems

https://doi.org/10.1017/S1742170518000017

To facilitate natural heritage protection, ecological protection, and tourism development, farmers in natural heritage tourist destinations are often relocated and resettled, thus becoming land-lost farmers. Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the livelihood vulnerability of land-lost farmers in natural heritage tourist destinations has become particularly prominent. In this paper, the Yinhuwan resettlement community in China's Mount Sanqingshan Scenic Area is taken as an example and changes in stock and livelihood capital structure of farmers after relocation are analyzed. Based on the exposure-sensitivity-adaptability framework, an evaluation index system of farmers' livelihood vulnerability is constructed to evaluate farmers' livelihood vulnerability. The multiple linear regression model is used to empirically analyze the influencing factors of livelihood vulnerability. The results show: (1) Relocation and resettlement induced considerable changes to the livelihood of farmers. After relocation, the livelihood capital of farmers has generally increased. The physical capital and financial capital of farmers increased significantly, while natural capital was replaced by tourism capital. This led to a decrease in human capital of farmers compared with tourism operations. (2) The COVID-19 pandemic has greatly impacted the livelihood of farmers in this resettlement community. (3) Under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic, the livelihood vulnerability of the main Nongjiale operators has become relatively high, while that of part-time Nongjiale operators and non-Nongjiale operators is moderate. (4) Tourism capital, tourism market seasonality, and livelihood diversification are significant factors influencing the livelihood vulnerability of farmers in this resettlement community. In this paper, the original natural capital is replaced with tourism capital, and a new analysis framework of livelihood capital is constructed. This provides a reference for future research on the livelihood of farmers in tourist destinations. This reference helps to study the sustainability of the livelihoods of land-lost farmers, and to evaluate the feasibility of the resettlement policy of farmers in tourist destinations. Several suggestions are presented that provide a basis for the formulation of relevant policies for reducing farmers' livelihood vulnerability.

Tang, WY; Wang, QG; Cheng, H; Liu, TH; Wan, JM

Livelihood vulnerability assessment of land-lost farmers in the context of tourism and the COVID-19 pandemic

Environment Development And Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-03590-6