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The annual Conferences of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change have developed into enormous events. They attract a diverse range of environmental professionals and attendance figures have multiplied during recent years. We take a close look at the counts of attending delegates and use statistical methods in order to find some interesting patterns of participation growth. Among other things, this allows us to hypothesize that the upcoming 2015 event in Paris could be as large as the Copenhagen event was. After this, participation numbers are likely to either plateau at a high level or collapse altogether, depending on whether or not the international community reaches a new climate change deal. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Neeff, T

How many will attend Paris? UNFCCC COP participation patterns 1995-2015

Environmental Science & Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2013.04.001

This study aimed to understand the climate change issues in Bangladesh by focusing on the specific operational guidance to Natural Resource Management (NRM) over time. The specific justification is used to figure out the factors that are responsible. To have an effective plan and guideline, this study has emphasised on some direct required actions and alternative options for long-run measures. Moreover, this study discussed the national lacking, limitation, required action and possible course of alternative option and a way forward to overcome the problems by the subject to current research effort and value. Finally, following on the raised issues, this study has introduced enhanced framework of strategies and guidelines to the concerned body and policy-makers in Bangladesh.

Ahmed, F; Al-Amin, AQ; Alam, GM

Climate change issues: challenges for Natural Resource Management in Bangladesh - a way forward

International Journal Of Global Warming

https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGW.2012.047285

The shift from framing climate change adaptation as vulnerabilityimpacts to adaptation pathways is also a shift from a predict-and-provide approaches to understanding dynamic processes. Studies of the economics of adaptation relying only on the comparative statics of reference and climate impacts scenarios ignore the more challenging frontier of representing decision processes and uncertainty. The logic of the shift to dynamic-pathway approaches is widely accepted in principal. Effective analytical tools are only beginning to appear. Further case studies are required to explore the matrix of uncertainty in future climate conditions against the range of metrics for valuing impacts in decision processes. WIREs Clim Change 2012, 3:161170. doi: 10.1002/wcc.157

Downing, TE

Views of the frontiers in climate change adaptation economics

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Climate Change

https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.157

This study analyses short- and long-term adaptation strategies for the tourism sector in Vietnam's Mekong Delta that arose out of empirical research. The study evaluates the adaptation approach for government authorities, businesses, and tourists to manage climate change-related threats of rising temperature, irregular rainfall, sea-level rise, severe storms, and increasing salinity. In addition, the study points out the main responsibilities for realizing climate change adaptation in the tourism sector. The study figures that there are some differences between government authorities, businesses and tourists' perspectives on recommended approaches to adapt to climate change. However, current strategies are very short-term and operate at the individual institutional level.

Huynh, VD; Piracha, A

An evaluation on climate change adaptation for tourism sector in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam

Asia Pacific Journal Of Tourism Research

https://doi.org/10.1080/10941665.2019.1653338

Using county-level data from the United States Department of Agriculture's Census of Agriculture, this study evaluates the effect of weather and climate on agricultural profits in the State of California. The approach is to estimate revenue less variable production cost per acre as a function of land characteristics, weather realizations, and climate. This model is then used to evaluate the effect of two scenarios of climate change for the state of California over the coming century. The preferred estimates indicate that climate change is associated with a negative effect on aggregate agricultural profits by the end of the century. There are significant caveats to this result, including the lack of statistical precision, and keeping water supply and farm prices constant.

Deschenes, O; Kolstad, C

Economic impacts of climate change on California agriculture

Climatic Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0322-3

In this review, we highlight new insights into the conceptualization of the vulnerability of social-environmental systems and identify critical points of convergence of what otherwise might be characterized as disparate fields of research. We argue that a diversity of approaches to studying vulnerability is necessary in order to address the full complexity of the concept and that the approaches are in large part complementary. An emerging consensus on the issues of critical importance to vulnerability reduction-including concerns of equity and social justice-and growing synergy among conceptual frameworks promise even greater relevancy and utility for decision makers in the near future. We synthesize the current literature with an outline of core assessment components and key questions to guide the trajectory of future research.

Eakin, H; Luers, AL

Assessing the vulnerability of social-environmental systems

Annual Review Of Environment And Resources

https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.energy.30.050504.144352

The objective of this comparative case study was to investigate and compare how Swedish municipalities gather and use warning information from official and unofficial sources at the municipal level, as well as the circumstances under which that process has a chance to succeed. The overall conclusions of the study are that official and unofficial warnings have the potential to play complementary roles for municipalities making decisions about flood response, giving the municipalities a wider perspective and better opportunity to assess risk and to act appropriately. The required resources for using official warnings and getting access to unofficial warning sources are not evenly distributed among municipalities, and a lack of systematization of access to warning information hinders the flood response potential.

Persson, ES

Flood Response Using Complementary Early Warning Information

Journal Of Contingencies And Crisis Management

https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.12121

The characteristics of household resilience, an emerging development paradigm, remain uncertain. This paper's purpose was to identify the characteristics of self-perceived resilient households in rural Burkina Faso. Among 46 participants, self-perceived resilience status was established through resilience diaries'. Diary results were compared with a series of socio-economic, community and household variables of interest. Major factors associated with household resilience included poverty status, savings accumulation and the use of livestock as an income-generating activity. These findings provide insights into factors likely to strengthen household resilience and provide direction for practitioners interested in building and measuring changes in household resilience. Copyright (c) 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Crookston, BT; Gray, B; Gash, M; Aleotti, V; Payne, HE; Galbraith, N

How Do You Know Resilience' When You See It? Characteristics of Self-perceived Household Resilience among Rural Households in Burkina Faso

Journal Of International Development

https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3362

Changes in rainfall patterns and temperatures are likely to affect water resources in India. Also, changes in the extreme events will have direct implications on life and property. Adapting to the adverse effects of climate change becomes critical to avoid huge material and immaterial damages. This paper discusses the use of a multi-level and participatory approach to develop adaptation options to deal with climate related risks in a manner that contributes to stakeholder engagement, understanding of the risks, identification of the adaptation responses as well as its prioritization for risk reduction. It highlights the importance of involving stakeholders from multiple levels as each level corresponds with different priorities in adaptation options. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bhadwal, S; Groot, A; Balakrishnan, S; Nair, S; Ghosh, S; Lingaraj, GJ; van Scheltinga, CT; Bhave, A; Siderius, C

Adaptation to changing water resource availability in Northern India with respect to Himalayan Glacier retreat and changing monsoons using participatory approaches

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.05.024

Case studies of three famines that occurred in rural northwest Nigeria during the latter half of the twentieth century are presented. Research found that continuum models and entitlement theory did not adequately conceptualize famine-related migration, though they may be more accurate now and in the future. Projects examining the climate-migration nexus should consider the possibility that famines and large-scale migrations from the Sahel will occur as a consequence of both heavy, poorly timed rainfall and intense droughts. The savanna's historical function as a refuge for stressed Sahelian people continued into the 1980s, but research is urgently needed to determine whether that is still true.

Grolle, J

Historical case studies of famines and migrations in the West African Sahel and their possible relevance now and in the future

Population And Environment

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-015-0237-4

Livestock holders experience increased food insecurity because of climate change. We argue that development programs, public health specialists, and practitioners must critically examine gendered impacts of climate change to improve food security of livestock producers. This review illustrates the differential experiences of men and women and how vulnerability, adaptive capacity, exposure and sensitivity to climatic stimuli are gendered in distinct ways between and among livestock holding communities. We propose a gendered conceptual framework for understanding the impact of climate change on food security among livestock holders, which highlights potential pathways of vulnerability and points of intervention to consider in global health strategies for improving household food security. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

McKune, SL; Borresen, EC; Young, AG; Ryley, TDA; Russo, SL; Camara, AD; Coleman, M; Ryan, EP

Climate change through a gendered lens: Examining livestock holder food security

Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics And Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2015.05.001

New evidence is emerging to suggest that climate change mobility is giving effect to changing forms of island identity among Tuvaluans and i-Kiribati. This nascent shift prompts a number of questions addressed in this paper. What, for example, does climate change migration mean for island identity and its geographic performance? How does the spatialization of identity inform shared experiences of climate change, and how does identity assist in the formation of shared positions from which to advocate for change? Drawing on discourses of sedentarism and mobilization among Tuvaluan and i-Kiribati, we explore performances of identity related to climate change being fashioned and refashioned in different contexts.

Farbotko, C; Stratford, E; Lazrus, H

Climate migrants and new identities? The geopolitics of embracing or rejecting mobility

Social & Cultural Geography

https://doi.org/10.1080/14649365.2015.1089589

This article identifies the conditions of vulnerability and risk to climate change presented by the city of Pedernales (Ecuador) in relation to water. It characterizes these problems according to four axes: the state of water resources, the forms of occupation on riverbanks, the mechanisms of water circulation, and the sociocultural system of use of this resource. Then he describes how the adaptation approach based on an urban design sensitive to water can reduce the vulnerability generated by pollution of the banks of the main river in the city. From this, it is sought to discuss the challenges that for the local agenda would imply the integral recovery of banks and rivers through processes of ecological restoration and landscape improvement.

Aráuz, AC; Rodríguez, CP

Vulnerability to climate change in Pedernales, Ecuador: challenges from the water

Letras Verdes

https://doi.org/10.17141/letrasverdes.24.2018.3326

Amory Lovins' distinction between 'soft' and 'hard' paths of energy technologies is applied, mutatis mutandis, to humanity's efforts to adapt to climate change. It is argued that hard adaptive measures involve capital-intensive, large, complex, inflexible technology and infrastructure, whereas soft adaptive measures prioritize natural capital, community control, simplicity and appropriateness. The prevalence of these two types of adaptation pathways is illustrated through two case studies from the Maldives: The Safer Island Development Program and the Integrating Climate Change Risks Program. Policymakers must be aware that hard and soft adaptation measures may trade off with each other, and give both paths due consideration.

Sovacool, BK

Hard and soft paths for climate change adaptation

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2011.579315

Scholars and practitioners have long noted the importance of community resilience to disaster recovery and environmental risk mitigation. Yet we know surprisingly little about how local residents perceive the resilience of their local communities, including how closely their perceptions align with objective measures of resilience or whether these perceptions affect community engagement and support for resilience building activities and policies. In this paper, we utilise the results of public opinion surveys of residents of four Texas coastal shoreline counties (Brazoria, Nueces, Galveston, and Cameron) to address this gap in the literature. The results reveal that perceptions of community preparedness largely reflect social trust and disaster awareness while perceptions of recovery reflect perceived risks and preparedness.

Goidel, K; Horney, JA; Kellstedt, PM; Sullivan, E; Brown, SEV

Perceptions of disaster resilience in four Texas coastal communities

Local Government Studies

https://doi.org/10.1080/03003930.2019.1571999

Global environmental change and sustainability science increasingly recognize the need to address the consequences of changes taking place in the structure and function of the biosphere. These changes raise questions such as: Who and what are vulnerable to the multiple environmental changes underway, and where? Research demonstrates that vulnerability is registered not by exposure to hazards (perturbations and stresses) alone but also resides in the sensitivity and resilience of the system experiencing such hazards. This recognition requires revisions and enlargements in the basic design of vulnerability assessments, including the capacity to treat coupled human-environment systems and those linkages within and without the systems that affect their vulnerability. A vulnerability framework for the assessment of coupled human-environment systems is presented.

Turner, BL; Kasperson, RE; Matson, PA; McCarthy, JJ; Corell, RW; Christensen, L; Eckley, N; Kasperson, JX; Luers, A; Martello, ML; Polsky, C; Pulsipher, A; Schiller, A

A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science

Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America

https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1231335100

In a time of rapid social and demographic change, growing exposure to risk factors due to climate change, resource shortages, migration strain and adverse economic conditions are sources of stress and continuous instability in urban contexts. Arup conceived the City Resilience Framework for the Rockefeller Foundation. 'Housing' is the only form of construction included within this framework. It is one of the action areas in its strategy for improving urban resilience. This article seeks to provide a methodological contribution, hypothesizing requisites for resilience, preventative procedures and ex-post validation that moves beyond an emergency approach to foster the resilience of residential construction and its measurability in all phases of the construction process.

Montella, I; Tonelli, C

Designing resilience: a contribution to the City Resilience Framework

Techne-Journal Of Technology For Architecture And Environment

https://doi.org/10.13128/Techne-22121

Evaluating socio-economic losses due to natural disasters is a challenging task because of the combined complexity of the social and ecological systems affected. However, also under pressure from the expected effects of climate change, evaluating the socio-economic costs of natural catastrophes has become a vital need for policy makers, urban planners, and private agents (such as insurance companies and banks). This paper suggests a general framework encompassing all the important concepts which should be taken into account by the above agents in the assessment of natural disasters. In particular, we propose a simple and consistent set of relationships among vulnerability, resilience, hazard, risk, damage, and loss which can guide socio-economic assessment.

Modica, M; Zoboli, R

Vulnerability, resilience, hazard, risk, damage, and loss: a socio-ecological framework for natural disaster analysis

Web Ecology

https://doi.org/10.5194/we-16-59-2016

The implementation of climate change adaptation polices has barely occurred in developed countries. This paper examines to what extent the perceptions of political actors might hinder the development of adaptation policies. We study the Swiss case using computer aided textual analysis. Our results demonstrate that adaptation is still not perceived as an important dimension of climate change policy. Decision makers do not perceive links between adaptation, the Swiss economy and the energy supply. Adaptation is mainly considered an issue for developing countries and not as a way to reduce the impacts of climate change in Switzerland. Right-wing parties tend to consider adaptation a secondary issue and are more likely than those to the left to object to the formulation or the implementation of public measures.

Dupuis, J; Knoepfel, P

Barriers to implementation of adaptation policies to climate change: the case of Switzerland

Swiss Political Science Review

https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1662-6370.2011.02011.x

Natural disasters have increased in frequency and severity during the last few decades, causing considerable economic damage and loss of life. A combination of climate and socio-economic change is likely to augment disaster loss trends in the future, creating the need for more sophisticated disaster risk management. A resilient risk management strategy for uncertain low-probability, high-impact risks comprises a package of measures focused on disaster risk prevention, damage mitigation and arrangements for efficient risk sharing. Possible implications of climate change on future risks and risk management policies are outlined. It is argued that financial arrangements such as insurance can play an important role in an adaptation strategy aimed at limiting and ameliorating socio-economic impacts of natural disasters.

Botzen, WJW; Van den Bergh, JCJM

Managing natural disaster risks in a changing climate

Environmental Hazards-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.3763/ehaz.2009.0023

This article presents the limitations of current climate-related disaster risk reduction policies that do not incorporate the underlying conditions in urban areas like Mumbai. It argues that climate risks exist at the intersection of changing nature of extreme events due to changes in climate (physical risk); presence of people, infrastructure, and resources in locations where these events are occurring (exposure); and the inability of exposed communities to reduce these losses or cope with them (vulnerability) due to simultaneous socioeconomic and political stresses. Hence, the article concludes that it is critical to apply a broader approach to understand the workings of underlying processes that affect all components and contribute to the production of risk and vulnerability in society.

Chatterjee, M; Mitchell, JK

The Scope for Broadening Climate-Related Disaster Risk Reduction Policies in Mumbai

Professional Geographer

https://doi.org/10.1080/00330124.2013.821724

To benefit from a wide-spread public support for climate policy, aid agencies strive to show the climate relevance of their development activities. Using project-level aid data and country-level political data for 21 DAC donors from 1995 to 2007, we test whether this may lead to politically motivated misreporting. Through keyword search in individual project descriptions and complementary hand-coding we assess all aid activities for their actual climate change-related content, and thereby construct our most relevant control variables. Econometric results reveal that indeed, project coding is influenced systematically by the donor governments' ideological orientation as well as by national voters' environmental preferences. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Michaelowa, A; Michaelowa, K

Coding Error or Statistical Embellishment? The Political Economy of Reporting Climate Aid

World Development

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.07.020

Degraded urban environments disproportionately affect marginalized populations, and especially impoverished women in South Asia's informal settlements, where climate change vulnerabilities and gender inequalities are extreme. We conducted acomparative analysis was conducted of three neighboring countries, India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, where urban environments, climate risks, and gender relations exhibit significant variances. With original survey data from 12 informal settlements across New Delhi, Dhaka, Islamabad, and Lahore, we was found that women are less empowered than men in all three countries, but their determinants related to environmental degradation and climate change vary. Qualitative data from key informants reveals several explanatory mechanisms of observed differences.

Patel, A; Lotia, H; Malik, AA; Mundt, MD; Lee, H; Rafiq, MA

Gendered Impacts of Environmental Degradation in Informal Settlements: A Comparative Analysis and Policy Implications for India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan

Journal Of Comparative Policy Analysis

https://doi.org/10.1080/13876988.2020.1829454

In Janssen et al. ( 2006), we presented a bibliometric analysis of the resilience, vulnerability, and adaptation knowledge domains within the research activities on human dimensions of global environmental change. We have updated the analysis because 2 years have gone by since the original analysis, and 1113 more publications can now be added to the database. We analyzed how the resulting 3399 publications between 1967 and 2007 are related in terms of co-authorship and citations. The rapid increase in the number of publications in the three knowledge domains continued over the last 2 years, and we still see an overlap between the knowledge domains. We were also able to identify the hot publications of the last 2 years.

Janssen, MA

An update on the scholarly networks on resilience, vulnerability, and adaptation within the human dimensions of global environmental change

Ecology And Society

A significantly large energy deficit and high vulnerability to climate change seriously impede sub-Saharan Africa's path towards sustainable and inclusive growth. The extent to which the region can leverage the opportunities offered by renewable energy is an important policy question with implications for economic research. This special issue argues that policy and institutional reforms as well as good governance will play an important role in opening up the energy sector to private investment and expanding the fiscal space. Such a constellation, by increasing investment in the energy sector, would allow for increased access to reliable and affordable electricity by both households and businesses, which should help unleash Africa's potential. Several future areas of research are also identified.

Sy, ANR; Simbanegavi, W; Ndung'u, N

Africa's Energy Renewal: The Twin Challenges of Energy Deficit and Climate Change

Journal Of African Economies

https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejz022

Climate change aggravates the challenges of sustainable development in mountain regions and calls for deeper insights into impacts on the vulnerability of mountain people and their options for adapting to changing conditions. Peru is considered highly vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, its government has initiated a program to strengthen the capacity for transdisciplinary research in order to propose adaptation measures and reduce the negative impacts of climate change. The present article describes the strategy for selecting the study area and for achieving collaboration between natural and social scientists, stakeholders, decision-makers, and other societal groups, in order to carry out an integrated assessment of climate change in the mountainous ecosystems region of central Peru, with an emphasis on vulnerability and adaptation.

Lagos, P

Peru's approach to climate change in the Andean mountain region: Achieving multidisciplinary regional cooperation for integrated assessment of climate change

Mountain Research And Development

https://doi.org/10.1659/0276-4741(2007)27[28:PATCCI]2.0.CO;2

Increasing the number of insured assets in high-risk areas can help reduce the need for federal disaster aid and help communities rebuild quicker following a disaster event. Offering a bundled multi-peril homeowners' insurance product may be one way to do this. Using individual-level survey data, we assess demand for a hypothetical multi peril insurance product and estimate a mean annual willingness to pay of $4,397. Both quantitative and qualitative analysis point to cost being the primary concern for adoption, however, reducing cognitive burden and uncertainty in the claims filing process appear to be important factors that appeal to homeowners. (JEL Q54, G22)

Landry, CE; Anderson, S; Krasovskaia, E; Turner, D

Willingness to Pay for Multi-peril Hazard Insurance

Land Economics

https://doi.org/10.3368/le.97.4.072820-0115R1

This study conducts a nationwide, locally comparative analysis of the extent to which natural hazards contribute to residential mobility in the United States and how this influence varies for racial and ethnic minorities. Analyses combine census data on households with data from thousands of recorded natural hazards during the late 1990s. Findings affirm that natural hazards are common throughout the country; that associated property damage correlates positively with increases in residential mobility for all groups; that these increases are particularly noticeable among racial and ethnic minorities because of preexisting inequalities in mobility; and that areas with more costly damage tend to pull as well as push migrants, especially Latinos and Asians. Implications for existing theory, methods, and policy are discussed.

Elliott, JR

Natural Hazards and Residential Mobility: General Patterns and Racially Unequal Outcomes in the United States

Social Forces

https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/sou120

Pacific island countries are highly vulnerable to destructive and unpredictable disasters. This paper identifies the intensity of disasters for each country in the Pacific based on the distribution of economic damages and population affected by disasters, and estimates the impact of disasters on economic growth and international trade using a panel regression method. The results show that 'severe' disasters have a negative and significant impact on economic growth and lead to a deterioration of the trade balance. Going further, this paper proposes a simple and consistent approach to incorporate disaster risks for economic planning. Better incorporating the economic impact of disasters in the medium- and long-term economic planning would help policy-makers improve policy decisions and to be better prepared for disasters.

Lee, D; Zhang, H

The economic impact of disasters in Pacific island countries: estimation and application to economic planning

Climate And Development

https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2022.2077690

Tidal gates have been in operation for centuries to block salt water from penetrating landscapes, while storm gates are relatively new. Storm gates block just severe storm surges while normally remaining open to allow salt water to move freely back and forth with the tides. This study evaluates the cost and flood benefits (averted flood damage) of storm gates on non-navigable coastal rivers and creeks. The study finds that only a fraction of coastal rivers should have storm gates. But selected storm gates are highly effective with long term benefits that are three times their cost. In the right place, storm gates can protect vulnerable low-lying developed areas from coastal flooding with a minimal environmental footprint.

Mendelsohn, R; Fairbank, A; Rajaoberison, A

The Economics of Storm Gates

Coastal Management

https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2022.2037387

As governments struggle to find solutions to complex problems like climate change, policy makers look for tools that can capture complexity and elicit insight. I explored the application of one such tool, known as SenseMaker, in helping Canadian policy makers understand the factors that enable or hinder climate change adaptation in Canada. I have reflected on the usefulness of SenseMaker and of a multiperspective, multimethod approach to investigating perceptions and experiences of adaptation. The challenges and advantages of applying this analysis in government were explored, and data findings assessed for their impact on policy. Findings showed that although the approach has promise, further work and testing are needed before sense-making approaches support adaptation policy.

Milne, KMG

Can sense-making tools inform adaptation policy? A practitioner's perspective

Ecology And Society

https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-06791-200166

Local climate policy is influenced by many factors. However, previous studies have barely considered the impact of trans-local activities on the diffusion of innovative climate policies. The article systematically examines the influence of structural contextual factors and political entrepreneurs as well as trans-local activities of cities. The analysis is conducted by means of aqualitative-comparative research design applying atwo-stage crisp set QCA. The results of the study show that structural factors can only partially explain the extensiveness of climate protection measures in major cities. The inclusion of trans-local action and policy entrepreneurship provides additional explanatory power as these factors may strengthen favorable and, on some occasion, substitute unfavorable structural conditions.

Kemmerzell, J; Hofmeister, A

Innovations in Climate Change Policy of German Major Cities The Influence of Trans-local Action in Comparison

Politische Vierteljahresschrift

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11615-018-0134-4

In South Africa, the smallholding-farming system is a dominant economic activity in rural communities. This study examines smallholder-farmers' perceptions in regards to climate changes, in comparison with evidence from meteorological data from 1980-2015, across Vhembe District; data from a questionnaire and recorded meteorological were used. The results reveal that, farmers' perceptions of climatic conditions are consistent with meteorological details on climatic change. In other words, the study, showed that, farmers' perceptions using climate indicators, mirror meteorological data. It was concluded that it is imperative for farmers to understand issues such as, temperature and rainfall patterns in order to identify adaptive strategies to the negative impacts of climate.

Kom, Z; Nethengwe, NS; Mpandeli, S; Chikoore, H

Climate Change Grounded on Empirical Evidence as Compared with the Perceptions of Smallholder Farmers in Vhembe District, South Africa

Journal Of Asian And African Studies

https://doi.org/10.1177/0021909619891757

Significant lessons can be drawn from grassroots experiences of coping with extreme weather for reducing the vulnerability of the urban poor to climate change. This paper examines the household and community coping strategies used by low-income households living in Korail, the largest informal settlement in Dhaka. This includes how they use physical, economic and social means to reduce risk, reduce losses and facilitate recovery from flooding and high temperatures, and shows how grassroots adaptation differs according to the level of risk from flooding. The paper also discusses how local planning and governance mechanisms aimed at adaptation can support these coping strategies, including mainstreaming them into adaptation plans that can be scaled up to the citywide level.

Jabeen, H; Johnson, C; Allen, A

Built-in resilience: learning from grassroots coping strategies for climate variability

Environment And Urbanization

https://doi.org/10.1177/0956247810379937

This study proposes a set of GuFSyADD guidelines on steps for developing suggestions that enhance of its rigor in systematic literature review (SLR) for studies related to climate change adaptation. The prescribed guidelines are based on the following six steps, (1) guided by review of protocol/publication standard/established guidelines/related published articles, (2) formulation of review questions, (3) systematic searching strategies, (4) appraisal of quality, (5) data extraction and analysis, and (6) data demonstration. Essentially, this set of proposed guidelines enables researchers to develop an SLR pertaining to climate change adaptation in an organised, transparent, and replicable manner.

Shaffril, HAM; Abu Samah, A; Samsuddin, SF

Guidelines for developing a systematic literature review for studies related to climate change adaptation

Environmental Science And Pollution Research

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-13178-0

Dialogue with stakeholders has been recognized as an effective educational strategy for addressing complex topics such as climate change. We report here on the Carbon, Energy, and Climate fishbowl discussion series developed by Michigan State University Extension to assist the state's agricultural community in understanding and adapting to the changing climate. Facilitated dialogue reduced barriers to communication and promoted cooperative learning for target audiences and the project team, generating useful information on the current status of climate change adaptation within Michigan's agriculture sector and revealing needs to be addressed by future Extension programming. Using a dialogue-based approach such as the one we describe can highlight challenges and opportunities Extension faces in addressing various complex issues with diverse audiences.

Doll, JE; Eschbach, CL; DeDecker, J

Using Dialogue to Engage Agricultural Audiences in Cooperative Learning About Climate Change: A Strategy with Broad Implications

Journal Of Extension

The Mountain Societies Development Support Programme, a non-governmental organization, designed and facilitated a climate change adaptation programme to build local adaptive capacity (LAC) among agro-pastoral villages in remote mountain areas of Kyrgyzstan. This research evaluated the programme using the LAC framework of Jones et al. [2010. Towards a characterisation of adaptive capacity: A framework for analysing adaptive capacity at the local level. Background Note. Overseas Development Institute.] Research found the programme contributed to increased adaptive capacity related to the asset base, knowledge and information, and flexible forward-looking decision-making. There were less apparent changes in the characteristics of institutions and entitlements and innovation.

Ashley, L; Zhumanova, M; Isaeva, A; Dear, C

Examining changes in local adaptive capacity resulting from climate change adaptation programming in rural Kyrgyzstan

Climate And Development

https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2015.1034230

The ocha and ifa tradition (traditionally known as santeria) are said to maintain a close relationship with nature. However, both traditions are characterized by a worldview that does not separate nature from non-nature (culture). Starting from the letter of the year of ifa and the psychology of the children of the Oricha (omo oricha) this paper illustrates the ocha-ifa worldview, which differs from the nature-culture dichotomy prevalent in the dominant thinking of the environment. The article seeks to understand how climate change- a very expression of the nature and culture distinction- was incorporated into ifa and its annual prophecies.

de Olmos, LR

Managing incompatibilities The ifa divination system and climate change in Cuba

Anthropos

https://doi.org/10.5771/0257-9774-2019-1-33

In order to meet the costs of adaptation, additional funds will be required, including private finance. Sovereign insurance is currently used as a contingency for disaster response but, as yet, has not been harnessed to finance a shift to longer term adaptation. In addition to its existing disaster contingency products, African Risk Capacity has designed a new sovereign insurance product - the Extreme Climate Facility - that intends to complement existing bilateral, multilateral and private sources of finance that enable proactive adaptation by leveraging private sector funds through the market. In this viewpoint, we argue that the Extreme Climate Facility contributes to the adaptation financing gap while also being innovative in incentivizing disaster risk reduction and adaptation interventions.

Vincent, K; Besson, S; Cull, T; Menzel, C

Sovereign insurance to incentivize the shift from disaster response to adaptation to climate change - African Risk Capacity's Extreme Climate Facility

Climate And Development

https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2018.1442791

The project fits into the context of management of climatic threats and natural disasters in developing countries. It is example Mozambique, seat of deepening of research, where the negative effects of climatic threats are amplified by the low level of resilience of the built environment. For the progress of the country and the development of the territory. The ability of resilience, adaptability and transform-ability play a fundamental role in the new forecasting processes and project aimed at the improvement of systems of settlements. The article describes the application testing of a methodology of investigation repeatable in similar contexts, time to outline a cognitive basis to trace possible actions for improvement in respect of the identity of the place.

Baiardi, L; Puglisi, V

MoNGUE project for the sustainable development of Mozambique

Techne-Journal Of Technology For Architecture And Environment

https://doi.org/10.13128/Techne-22114

The sustainable development goals emphasize the need for multi-level governance to stimulate actions across many levels and involving actors from multiple sectors. Cities and human settlements are critical sites for implementation of these universal objectives, indicating the need for local action that serves global and local interests. This paper reviews recent literature on this theme, illustrating challenges and opportunities influencing local action, with particular focus on municipalities. The partial implementation and limited evaluation of previous initiatives such as Local Agenda 21 are highlighted, suggesting past experiences offer insights into how the SDGs may be implemented. The review suggests research may support municipal action by illustrating how and in what ways municipalities can integrate the SDGs in strategy, policy and practice.

Fenton, P; Gustafsson, S

Moving from high-level words to local action - governance for urban sustainability in municipalities

Current Opinion In Environmental Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2017.07.009

During the last quarter of 2000 the UK experienced major disruption caused by severe flooding as numerous rivers in England and Wales utilised their flood plains in response to heavy rainfall. This article analyses the nature and geography of the flooding, before considering the possible causes: agriculture, climate change, flood-plain development, government policy and the planning system. There is then an evaluation of the widely suggested potential solutions, including an increase in flood defence funding, and a reform of the planning system. The article continues by suggesting that it is the fragmented approach that is the key reason why no satisfactory solution has yet been found, and concludes by recommending an integrated approach to catchment management in the future.

Howe, J; White, I

The geography of the autumn 2000 floods in England and Wales: Causes and solutions

Geography

In this era of rapid climate change there is an urgent need for interdisciplinary collaboration and understanding in the study of what determines resistance to disasters and recovery speed. This paper is an economist's contribution to that effort. It traces the entrance of the word resilience from ecology into the social science literature on disasters, provides a formal economic definition of resilience that can be used in mathematical modeling, incorporates this definition into a multilevel model that suggests appropriate policy roles and targets at each level, and draws on the recent empirical literature on the economics of disaster, searching for policy handles that can stimulate higher resilience. On the whole it provides a framework for simulations and for formulating disaster resilience policies.

Edwards, JHY

The structure of disaster resilience: a framework for simulations and policy recommendations

Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-827-2015

Political inaction at the federal level in the United States has driven increased attention to the importance of planning for climate change at the metropolitan level. This study reports on a survey of 25 regional councils in the United States that measures the extent to which they have adopted climate change plans and to identify the factors that influence their ability to implement climate change initiatives. The findings revealed that a majority of regional councils are involved in planning for and seeking to reduce climate change, and that existing efforts in complementary policy domains make this involvement possible. The findings support a multi-level framework to assess the institutional capacity of regional councils to implement climate change policy and planning in a metropolitan area.

Bryan, TK

Capacity for climate change planning: assessing metropolitan responses in the United States

Journal Of Environmental Planning And Management

https://doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2015.1030499

This study uses the Ricardian (hedonic) approach to estimate the impact of potential climate change on agricultural farmland values in the Southeast U.S. as a distinct agricultural region. Using the Agricultural Resource Management Survey and seasonal county-level climate and data, we find that regional farmland values increase with spring and fall temperatures and fall precipitation and decrease with winter and summer temperatures. Long-term climate change projections predict aggregate farmland value losses of 2.5-5% with differential state-level impacts, ranging from large losses in Florida to significant gains in Virginia. The results are consistent with recent research and can be helpful in policy design and forecasting land use change.

Quaye, F; Nadolnyak, D; Hartarska, V

Climate Change Impacts on Farmland Values in the Southeast United States

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su10103426

Climate adaptation research is expanding rapidly within an increasingly reflexive society where the relationship between academia and other social institutions is in a state of flux. Tensions exist between the two dominant research orientations of research about and research for adaptation. In particular, the research community is challenged to develop processes for successfully executing transdisciplinary research for adaptation when academic institutions and researchers are largely structured around traditional, disciplinary expertise and funding models. One tool for helping to manage this tension is a third, more reflexive, orientation toward adaptation research that is emerging in the literature. This new 'research on adaptation research' promises to help enhance understanding of the research enterprise itself and how it can become more adaptive.

Preston, BL; Rickards, L; Fünfgeld, H; Keenan, RJ

Toward reflexive climate adaptation research

Current Opinion In Environmental Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2015.05.002

In the wake of increased drought occurrences being witnessed in Sub-Saharan Africa, more localized and contextualized drought mitigation strategies are on the agendas of many researchers and policy makers in the region. The integration of indigenous knowledge on droughts with seasonal climate forecasts is one such strategy. The main challenge facing this integration, however, is the formal representation of highly-structured and holistic indigenous knowledge. In this paper, we demonstrate how the use of fuzzy cognitive mapping can address this challenge. Indigenous knowledge on droughts from five communities was modeled and represented using fuzzy cognitive maps. Maps from one of these case communities were then used in the implementation of the integration framework, called itiki.

Masinde, M; Mwagha, M; Tadesse, T

Downscaling Africa's Drought Forecasts through Integration of Indigenous and Scientific Drought Forecasts Using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps

Geosciences

https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8040135

Adaptation strategies to ameliorate the impacts of climate change are increasing in scale and scope around the world, with interventions becoming a part of daily life for many people. Though the implications of climate impacts for health and wellbeing are well documented, to date, adaptations are largely evaluated by financial cost and their effectiveness in reducing risk. Looking across different forms of adaptation to floods, we use existing literature to develop a typology of key domains of impact arising from interventions that are likely to shape health and wellbeing. We suggest that this typology can be used to assess the health consequences of adaptation interventions more generally and argue that such forms of evaluation will better support the development of sustainable adaptation planning.

Quinn, T; Heath, S; Adger, WN; Abu, M; Butler, C; Codjoe, SNA; Horvath, C; Martinez-Juarez, P; Morrissey, K; Murphy, C; Smith, R

Health and wellbeing implications of adaptation to flood risk

Ambio

https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-023-01834-3

Increasingly, studies are examining whether the incidence of natural disasters influences household migration. This paper examines whether the severity of natural disasters is important for migration decisions in Vietnam, rather than just examining their occurrence. Data for a sample of 1,003 farm households from the Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey are examined for the period 2006-2008. A residual generated regressor approach is adopted to isolate the direct impact of disasters on migration from the indirect impact they have on migration through reducing agricultural output and income. Findings suggest that more severe disasters are directly associated with a greater probability of migration. Furthermore, such outcomes are the same for poor households vis-a-vis their non-poor counterparts.

Trinh, TA; Feeny, S; Posso, A

The impact of natural disasters on migration: findings from Vietnam

Journal Of Demographic Economics

https://doi.org/10.1017/dem.2020.14

In the decades since the terms 'vulnerability', 'capacity' and 'resilience' became popular in both the disaster and development literatures, through natural and social science discourses, the terms have been applied to many development- and disaster-related policies and have been the subject of much debate and interpretation amongst various schools of thought. An illustrative review of the use of these terms is given followed by a critique of the main discourses, especially regarding the development and disaster policy advantages and disadvantages. Recommendations are given at different scales for closing some of the gaps identified, especially regarding the policy usefulness of certain theoretical approaches. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Gaillard, JC

VULNERABILITY, CAPACITY AND RESILIENCE: PERSPECTIVES FOR CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT POLICY

Journal Of International Development

https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.1675

This review examines what drives the production of usable knowledge and how it intersects with emerging integrated and adaptive governance frameworks to respond to complex environmental change, especially climate change. It finds that although our understanding of challenges and opportunities for the production of usable science for water governance has significantly advanced, evidence of how it builds (or not) adaptive capacity of water systems is mixed in the few empirical cases examined in the literature. This is particularly true in relation to how knowledge use interacts with other determinants of adaptive capacity, particularly stakeholder engagement, learning and power distribution in participatory governance. In this context, the emergence of new approaches that actively manage the boundary between knowledge production and use is promising.

Lemos, MC

Usable climate knowledge for adaptive and co-managed water governance

Current Opinion In Environmental Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2014.09.005

Community-based adaptation (CBA) is an approach to strengthening the adaptive capacity of local communities vulnerable to climate change. The CBA approach increasingly features in discussions among policy makers, planners, advocates, and researchers, and has been endorsed and adopted by numerous governmental and non-governmental organizations. However, to date the CBA approach has lacked conceptual clarity, and the term is interpreted and deployed in various and often contradictory ways. This paper seeks to address this deficit by explaining the rationale put forth for CBA by its proponents, outlining its guiding principles, and theorizing some of its key challenges, which often point to opportunities for the approach to evolve.

Kirkby, P; Williams, C; Huq, S

Community-based adaptation (CBA): adding conceptual clarity to the approach, and establishing its principles and challenges

Climate And Development

https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2017.1372265

An appropriate institutional set up is essential for efficient transboundary flood management in the Rhine basin, particularly in view of future uncertainties like climate change. Flood management factors are identified based on a historical comparison in the Netherlands and Germany. They include differences in the perception of the problem and how to solve it; in the understanding of key items and how to address them; in administrative responsibilities and the political will to act. Suggestions are made to improve cooperation, in particular to generate a common problem perception and problem analysis, to develop a common vision for future flood strategies and to create a network of discussion platforms to promote social learning and to prepare, decide and implement flood management issues.

Becker, G; Aerts, J; Huitema, D

Transboundary flood management in the Rhine basin: challenges for improved cooperation

Water Science And Technology

https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2007.544

Forest-management goals in the context of climate change are to reduce the adverse impact of climate change on biodiversity, ecosystem services and carbon stocks. For developing an effective adaptation strategy, knowledge on nature and sources of vulnerability of forests is necessary to conserve or enhance carbon sinks. However, assessing the vulnerability of forest ecosystems is a challenging task, as the mechanisms that determine vulnerability cannot be observed directly. In this article, we list the challenges in forest vulnerability assessments and propose an assessment of inherent vulnerability by using process-based indicators under the current climate. We also suggest periodic assessment of vulnerability, which is necessary to review adaptation strategies for the management of forests and forest carbon stocks.

Sharma, J; Chaturvedi, RK; Bala, G; Ravindranath, NH

Challenges in vulnerability assessment of forests under climate change

Carbon Management

https://doi.org/10.4155/CMT.13.35

This paper evaluates long-term climate change adaptation strategies in the Netherlands and Bangladesh using the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's (OECD) Principles of Good Water Governance. Deltas face complex challenges, and adequate long-term planning is essential for these regions. However, experience with these long-term planning efforts and linkages with theoretical frameworks on water-related policy and strategy development remain limited. Both countries politically approved significant investment portfolios for a durable adaptive strategy. This paper highlights the similarities and differences in the resulting strategies. Using the learning assessment methodology, we propose to add risk-based approaches and long-term strategic perspectives as additional OECD Principles in the conclusion.

van Alphen, J; de Heer, J; Minkman, E

Strategies for climate change adaptation: lessons learnt from long-term planning in the Netherlands and Bangladesh

Water International

https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2021.1911069

Providing a review of theoretical and empirical studies with a specific coverage on Europe, this paper focuses on the concept of 'metropolitan resilience' in light of public governance and regional planning, making some distinctions with the more general notion of 'urban resilience'. While discussing different approaches to 'engineering resilience' and 'evolutionary resilience' characteristic of transitioning urban systems, conceptual differences between the issues of `specific' and 'generic' resilience in metropolitan regions were outlined, distinguishing central cities from suburban locations and larger regions surrounding urban cores. Integrating multi-disciplinary frameworks to resilience science allows formulation of shared definitions and homogeneous frameworks evaluating resilience in different socioeconomic contexts at both local and regional scale.

Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir, R; Cividino, S; Egidi, G; Salvati, L

BUILDING FOR LOCAL RESILIENCE AND THE LATENT NEXUS BETWEEN VULNERABILITY AND SUSTAINABILITY IN METROPOLITAN REGIONS

Environmental Engineering And Management Journal

This paper analyses key contributors to sustainable livelihoods in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB), Cambodia, by focusing upon villagers' access to assets, adaptation to shock and stress, and their degree of resilience to declines in natural resources. The study reveals that their access to the five assets for sustainable livelihoods is limited; that their capacity to adapt to shock and stress is low due to floods, drought and high food prices; and that their resilience to declines in natural resources is weak. Improvement in their capacity to adapt and in their resilience will be influenced by the degree to which they can access human, physical and social assets.

Sok, S; Yu, XJ

Adaptation, resilience and sustainable livelihoods in the communities of the Lower Mekong Basin, Cambodia

International Journal Of Water Resources Development

https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2015.1012659

This paper argues that there is ethical and practical necessity for including women's needs, perspectives, and expertise in international climate change negotiations. I show that climate change contributes to women's hardships because of the conjunction of the feminization of poverty and environmental degradation caused by climate change. I then provide data I collected in Ghana to demonstrate effects of extreme weather events on women subsistence farmers and argue that women have knowledge to contribute to adaptation efforts. The final section surveys the international climate debate, assesses explanations for its gender blindness, and summarizes the progress on gender that was made at Copenhagen and Cancun in order to document and provoke movement toward climate justice for women.

Glazebrook, T

Women and Climate Change: A Case-Study from Northeast Ghana

Hypatia-A Journal Of Feminist Philosophy

https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1527-2001.2011.01212.x

This paper explores the risks that climate change poses to food security in the islands of the South Pacific. It shows that climate change will adversely affect food systems in the region, including the supply of food from agriculture and fisheries, the ability of countries to import food, systems for the distribution of food, and the ability of households to purchase and utilize food. In these ways, climate change puts at risk the very basic and universal need for people in the islands to have access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food at all times. It is argued that for people in the South Pacific, the risks climate change poses to food security constitutes a 'dangerous' change in climate.

Barnett, J

Dangerous climate change in the Pacific Islands: food production and food security

Regional Environmental Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-010-0160-2

Using panel data originating from two household surveys conducted in 2012 and 2014, we investigate German households' adaptation behavior in response to indoor heat stress during summer months. Providing detailed information of household characteristics, behavior and technical equipment, our database allows us to estimate a random effects probit model on households' vulnerability and adaptive capacity. The estimates indicate that even moderate increases in temperatures are sufficient to trigger investments in adaptation measures: While the propensity to adapt is heterogeneous across socio-economic groups, an increase of one degree Celsius in average summer temperature is associated with a rise of 2,3 percentage points in adaptation probability. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Kussel, G

Adaptation to Climate Variability: Evidence for German Households

Ecological Economics

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.06.039

This article aims to explore the relationship between individual adaptive actions and enhancement of community resilience to climate change as a communal objective. It proposes to pay attention to the concept of reflexivity as the primary individual capacity to link adaptive actions and community resilience. Drawing on the field research conducted in northern Ghana in 2015, this article specifically examines life histories of four small farmers and shows that they individually take adaptive actions and reflect on these actions. However, little opportunity exists for them to systematically communicate the reflections with others to learn from their experiences, nurture collective agency and enhance community resilience. The article concludes by outlining new strategies needed to facilitate the communication in particular cultural and policy contexts.

Otsuki, K; Jasaw, G; Lolig, V

Linking Individual and Collective Agency for Enhancing Community Resilience in Northern Ghana

Society & Natural Resources

https://doi.org/10.1080/08941920.2017.1347971

In this paper we argue that rationalist 'predict then act' approaches to disaster risk management (DRM) policy promote unrealistic public expectations of DRM provisions, the avoidance of decision making by political elites, an over-reliance on technical expertise and engineering solutions to reducing exposure to natural events, and a reactive approach to DRM overall. We propose an alternative incrementalist approach that focuses on managing uncertainties rather than reducing them and building resilience not simply through the reduction of hazard exposure, but also through the ongoing reduction of community vulnerability, the explicit consideration of normative priorities, and more effective community engagement in climate risk debates. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Heazle, M; Tangney, P; Burton, P; Howes, M; Grant-Smith, D; Reis, K; Bosomworth, K

Mainstreaming climate change adaptation: An incremental approach to disaster risk management in Australia

Environmental Science & Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2013.05.009

In this Short Communication, we raise the concern that the existing conceptualization of 'vulnerability', introduced in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), is not facilitative for standalone vulnerability assessments and that this conceptualization has not been well accepted by the vulnerability researchers. We identify three key reasons for low adoption of the AR5 conceptualization in climate change vulnerability assessments, and urge the IPCC Working Group II to clarify how the current conceptualization of 'vulnerability' can facilitate standalone climate change vulnerability assessments. We propose treating 'exposure' not only as a precondition for vulnerability but also as a secondary driver of vulnerability to capture the influence of differential exposure.

Ishtiaque, A; Estoque, RC; Eakin, H; Parajuli, J; Rabby, YW

IPCC's current conceptualization of 'vulnerability' needs more clarification for climate change vulnerability assessments

Journal Of Environmental Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.114246

The concept of autonomous adaptation is widely used to describe spontaneous acts of reducing risks posed by resource scarcity and, increasingly, climate change. Critics, however, have claimed it is unproven, or simplifies the agency by which smallholders respond to risk. This paper presents empirical research in eight Karen villages in Thailand to identify how resource scarcity is linked to adaptive responses including livelihood diversification. The paper argues that autonomous adaptation is driven by how environmental change and scarcity present livelihood risks, rather than physical risks alone. Adaptation planning therefore should acknowledge different experiences of risk, and socio-economic barriers to adaptation. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forsyth, T; Evans, N

What is Autonomous Adaption? Resource Scarcity and Smallholder Agency in Thailand

World Development

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2012.11.010

Meeting the needs for agrometeorological services, including agroclimatological services, in the livelihood of farmers is the focus of this paper in four Parts. This ideally leads to agrometeorological services for response farming with irrigation scheduling, early warnings, microclimate manipulation, and application of weather and climate forecasts in a changing and increasingly variable climate. In this first Part, some historical aspects are dealt with in the introduction, particularly regarding the definition and scope of agrometeorology. What has recently been said about such services is exemplified, including examples from South Africa, Cuba, Zambia and India.

Stigter, K; Walker, S; Das, H; Dominguez-Hurtado, IM; Nanja, D

Meeting farmers' needs for agrometeorological services: A review with case studies Part I: Introduction and history

Italian Journal Of Agrometeorology-Rivista Italiana Di Agrometeorologia

Global climate change is putting humanity under pressure, which in many areas poses an unprecedented threat to society as we know it. In an effort to mitigate its effects, it is necessary to reduce the overall production of greenhouse gases and thus, dependence on fossil fuels in all areas of human activities. The presented paper deals with an evaluation of energy mix of the Slovak Republic and four selected neighboring countries in the context of achieving their carbon neutral or carbon negative future. The development of the evaluated energy mixes as well as greenhouse gas emissions is presented from a long-term perspective, which makes it possible to evaluate and compare mutual trends and approaches to emission-free energy sectors.

Beer, M; Rybár, R

Development Process of Energy Mix towards Neutral Carbon Future of the Slovak Republic: A Review

Processes

https://doi.org/10.3390/pr9081263

Climate change presents a risk to the composition, health, and vitality of Canada's forests and forest sector. Effects may be either negative or positive, and will interact in complex ways over many spatial and temporal scales depending on such factors as physical geography, forest type, and forest management practices. Given the apparent vulnerability of forests and the forest sector to climate change, it is prudent that forest and forest-based community managers begin to develop adaptive strategies to minimize the risks and maximize the benefits of climate change. A flexible planning framework that incorporates key principles of structured decision-making and risk management is presented as a practical way to integrate climate change adaptation into forest management planning.

Ohlson, DW; McKinnon, GA; Hirsch, KG

A structured decision-making approach to climate change adaptation in the forest sector

Forestry Chronicle

https://doi.org/10.5558/tfc81097-1

In this paper we investigate the economic response of rural households to the 2013 floods in Pakistan. The case study illustrates the important roles of labor supply adjustments and income diversification in coping with climate-related risks. Using detailed household panel data that were collected before and after the 2013 floods, we find that the exposure to flood results in lower participation in farm activities. The overall effects are decreased diversification in the sources of income and ambiguous reduction in inequality which is associated with overall declines in incomes. These changes could be locked in if affected households do not have sufficient assets to resume farming. The results suggest intervention points for public policy, related to labor mobility and access to capital.

Eskander, SMSU; Fankhauser, S

Income Diversification and Income Inequality: Household Responses to the 2013 Floods in Pakistan

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su14010453

Since the damages caused by disasters associated with climate anomalies and the diversification of the social structure increase every year, an efficient management system associated with a damage assessment of the areas vulnerable to disasters is demanded to prevent or mitigate the damages to infrastructure. The areas vulnerable to disasters in Busan, located at southeastern part of Korea, were estimated based on historical records of damages and a risk assessment of the infrastructure was performed to provide fundamental information prior to the establishment of the real-time monitoring system for infrastructure and establish disaster management system. The results are illustrated by using geographical information system (GIS) and provide the importance of the roadmap for comprehensive and specific strategy to manage natural disasters.

Jeon, SS

Areas vulnerable to natural disasters and damage estimation of infrastructure in Busan, Korea

Journal Of Central South University

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11771-014-2090-5

The diagrammatic representation of climate change, adaptation and mitigation is important in conceptualizing the problem, identifying important feedbacks, and communicating between disciplines. The Synthesis Report of the IPCC's Third Assessment Report, 2001, uses a cause and effect approach developed in the integrated assessment literature. This viewpoint reviews this approach and suggests an alternative, based on stocks and flows. The alternative gives a much richer representation of the problem so that it includes the enhanced greenhouse effect, ancillary benefits of mitigation, the distinction between climate-change and other stresses on natural systems, and a more refined distinction between adaptation and mitigation. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Barker, T

Representing global climate change, adaptation and mitigation

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0959-3780(02)00085-7

We explore how the Cities for Climate Protection (CCP) program, a network that is simultaneously global and local, state and nonstate, could be conceptualized as part of global environmental governance. We suggest that traditional approaches to international relations-regime theory and transnational networks-offer limited conceptual space for analyzing such networks. These approaches obscure how the governance of global climate change takes place through processes and institutions operating at and between a variety of scales and involving a range of actors with different levels and forms of authority. We contend that it is only by taking a multilevel perspective that we can fully capture the social, political, and economic processes that shape global environmental governance.

Betsill, MM; Bulkeley, H

Cities and the multilevel governance of global climate change

Global Governance

https://doi.org/10.1163/19426720-01202004

Critical insurance studies recognises insurance as not purely actuarial and calculative. From this recognition, this theoretically informed research pays attention to the reproduction of power in insurantial discourse and practice, and possibilities for equitable change. To extend geographical contributions in this regard, I review critical insurance research and describe three intersecting foci - governmentality, materiality and spatiality. I also contribute new insights in considering insurance as co-constituting fluid and fire space - as flowing and adapting within everyday complexities, and as fiery and constituted through multiple flickering realities. These contestable multiplicities and mobilities may contribute to more equitable configurations beyond the hegemonic.

Booth, K

Critical insurance studies: Some geographic directions

Progress In Human Geography

https://doi.org/10.1177/03091325211036181

Cities have become crucial actors for the global governance of climate change. Their increased activity in this field is reflected by the rising number of adoptions of local climate strategies in an original sample of 274 European cities from 1992 to 2009. Using event history analysis, I find that this spread is promoted by transnational municipal networks (TMNs) successfully deploying strategies for governance by diffusion, their impact exceeding that of most alternative explanatory factors cited in the literature. Given their capacity to foster the spread of climate policy innovations among cities, TMNs can thus be expected to play a decisive role in a climate governance system that is becoming increasingly fragmented, polycentric, and transnational.

Hakelberg, L

Governance by Diffusion: Transnational Municipal Networks and the Spread of Local Climate Strategies in Europe

Global Environmental Politics

https://doi.org/10.1162/GLEP_a_00216

This paper describes a project undertaken in Samoa to address climate change and other hazards, the method from which could provide a useful model for other small island developing states (SIDS). To reduce Samoa's coastal vulnerability and strengthen institutional and community response capability, land use planning and disaster management frameworks were integrated through: (1) Developing coastal infrastructure management plans for every district supported by a national strategy and integrated with national disaster management arrangements. (2) Intensive participatory village consultation which respected traditional and emerging cultural practices. (3) Training government staff to undertake the consultation work in villages and build capacity. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Daly, M; Poutasi, N; Nelson, F; Kohlhase, J

REDUCING THE CLIMATE VULNERABILITY OF COASTAL COMMUNITIES IN SAMOA

Journal Of International Development

https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.1678

Using data for a flood-prone county in Florida, this paper analyzes the effects of sea-level rise on migration decisions and destination choices. The data are retrieved from parcel-level tax records, utilizing a name-matching procedure, enriched with synthetic population techniques to generate salient socio-economic attributes of movers and stayers. We find that in the years following a major flood event, households with high perceived risks have elevated migration propensities. We also find that households making ad hoc decisions on retreating from rising waters will in fact stay close to the hazard prone areas. This may eventually necessitate a further retreat, including a costly move.

Kim, YJ; Waldorf, B; Sesmero, J

Relocation, Retreat, and the Rising Sea Level: A Simulation of Aggregate Outcomes in Escambia County, Florida

Region Et Developpement

This paper evaluates the impact of the 2015 El Nino-induced drought on household consumption in Ethiopia. A difference-in-difference method was used to compare consumption changes over time in a group unaffected by the drought to the changes in a group affected by the drought. By using the ESS household-level consumption aggregate data, we find that the 2015 drought reduces affected household's annual consumption by 8%, and the reduction was largely driven by changes in the lower tails of the consumption distribution. Overall, we find a significant consumption decline due to the 2015 drought, and much of the decline has been experienced among the consumption poor, indicating shock resilience inequality among rural households.

Kasie, TA; Demissie, BS; Bahry, MJ; Gessesse, GM; Wale, LE

The impact of the 2015 El Nino-induced drought on household consumption: evidence from rural Ethiopia

Climate And Development

https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2019.1701400

As concern about climate change grows, so does interest in deliberately managing the carbon cycle to reduce atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. Given the scientific and technical nature of knowledge of the carbon cycle, one would expect that carbon science would be directly of use to society in considering this objective. However, carbon science is not currently organized or conducted in such a way that it can be usable to the wide diversity of decision makers who might potentially be involved in managing the carbon cycle. This paper reviews the science policies and actors governing the production or supply of carbon cycle science, and suggests alternatives for enabling the supply to better meet demand. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dilling, L

Towards science in support of decision making: characterizing the supply of carbon cycle science

Environmental Science & Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2006.10.008

My third report covering recent research in historical geography focuses on climate, and particularly scholarship that explores how the meaning of climate and climate change varies in distinct cultural and temporal contexts. Viewing climate science, and more specifically interpretations of climate science, as a discourse amenable to cultural criticism suggests that notions of climate are and have always been a physical and social phenomenon. Reviewed research suggests that ideas of climate and climate change are intertwined with social mores, politics and institutions, philosophies of civilization and progress, and inseparable from the cultural expressions that give them meaning and, thus, are far too important to be left to climate scientists to narrate or interpret.

Offen, K

Historical geography III: Climate matters

Progress In Human Geography

https://doi.org/10.1177/0309132513501429

Climate scenarios have been widely used in impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments of climate change. However, few studies have actually looked at the role played by climate scenarios in adaptation planning. This paper examines how climate scenarios fit in three broad adaptation frameworks: the IPCC approach, risk approaches, and human development approaches. The use (or not) of climate scenarios in three real projects, corresponding to each adaptation approach, is investigated. It is shown that the role played by climate scenarios is dependant on the adaptation assessment approach, availability of technical and financial capacity to handle scenario information, and the type of adaptation being considered. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dessai, S; Lu, XF; Risbey, JS

On the role of climate scenarios for adaptation planning

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.12.004

As awareness of climate change increases, U.S. cities are beginning to implement climate mitigation and adaptation initiatives to reduce population vulnerabilities to climate risks. This study contributes to a growing literature that quantitatively describes the relationships between sociodemographic variables and climate adaptation interventions in U.S. cities. Ordinary linear and simultaneous autoregressive models are used to evaluate early flood adaptation actions in Austin, Texas, to assess relationships between flood risk, green infrastructure, and measures of race and income. Findings of unequal exposure to flood risk and uneven access to flood resilience initiatives contribute to our understanding of color-blind urban planning responses to climate change and their potential to amplify inequitable protection from climate risks.

Zoll, D

Climate Adaptation as a Racial Project: An Analysis of Color-Blind Flood Resilience Efforts in Austin, Texas

Environmental Justice

https://doi.org/10.1089/env.2021.0034

Increasingly, local governments are crafting policy to tackle climate change. This article examines why cities develop and implement climate change programs. The authors consider the impact of interest group pressure, political institutions, and problem severity on a city's decision to develop and implement climate protection programs. Their results suggest that organized interests influence both adoption and implementation of climate mitigation programs. This effect, however, is contingent on political institutions. In general, organized interests are more effective in mayoral as opposed to city manager forms of governments. Interestingly, while financially strapped cities may adopt climate mitigation programs to advance cobenefits or cost savings, fiscal stress also impedes program implementation.

Sharp, EB; Daley, DM; Lynch, MS

Understanding Local Adoption and Implementation of Climate Change Mitigation Policy

Urban Affairs Review

https://doi.org/10.1177/1078087410392348

Resilience to climate change demands a transformation in social and political relations, but the literature has largely neglected how these are embedded within legacies of conflict. We explore the roles socioenvironmental conflicts play in the scaling up of transformation amidst ongoing settler colonial projects in Indigenous territories in Nicaragua. Drawing on insights from resilience, climate change, and critical agrarian studies, this article reframes resilience as a process produced within socioenvironmental conflicts, placing contestation and negotiation in the centre frame. By re-signifying the meanings and practices of resilience, Indigenous agrarian struggles contribute to 'eroding capitalism' and its entwinement with climate change.

Gonda, N; Flores, S; Casolo, JJ; Nightingale, AJ

Resilience and conflict: rethinking climate resilience through Indigenous territorial struggles

Journal Of Peasant Studies

https://doi.org/10.1080/03066150.2022.2161372

This paper argues that discourses of climate change in the Solomon Islands are being significantly shaped by legacies of Anglican conversion. To understand how climate change is made meaningful therefore means being attentive to the histories and geographies of conversion. Climate change in the Solomon Islands is not only a physical process but a negotiation between new material realities and a Christian cosmos. This paper demonstrates how climate change is made compatible with a Christian cosmos. It also shows how that cosmos is transformed in the process. In the Solomon Islands, this means being attentive to spaces such as shorelines, horizons, ships, names and churches.

Bobbette, A

Priests on the Shore: Climate Change and the Anglican Church of Melanesia

Geohumanities

https://doi.org/10.1080/2373566X.2019.1644962

Cities in the Global South are quintessential sites for climate adaptation; many are rapidly expanding, struggle with increasing inequalities and experience unprecedented harm from climatic extremes. Despite scholarly recognition that adaptation pathways should reduce multidimensional vulnerabilities and inequalities, current adaptation efforts largely preserve the status quo. Many benefit powerful actors while further entrenching the poor and disadvantaged in cycles of dispossession. We bring together scholarship on adaptation pathways, politics and practice to deconstruct adaptation trajectories. We propose three conceptual steps - acknowledging injustices, embracing deliberation and nurturing responsibility for human and more-than-human others - to chart inclusive pathways towards just climate futures.

Henrique, KP; Tschakert, P

Pathways to urban transformation: From dispossession to climate justice

Progress In Human Geography

https://doi.org/10.1177/0309132520962856

Opportunities exist for radical strategies, driven by spatial planning, to adapt our urban fabric to climate change. Floating developments are one such innovation. This phenomenon and its ideas are driven by a variety of societal forces, including by population pressure, rapid urbanisation, the resulting need for additional housing inventory, by urban adaptation strategies to counter fluvial flooding and sea level rise, plus interests in urban landscape renewal. We reflect on seventeen projects in five countries and note that, to date, it is inner city harbours or industrial areas in decline that are being targeted for floating communities. These can add renewal, recreational and landscape value, while simultaneously expanding the existing urban housing stock.

Penning-Rowsell, E

Floating architecture in the landscape: climate change adaptation ideas, opportunities and challenges

Landscape Research

https://doi.org/10.1080/01426397.2019.1694881

Although governance is often cited as a challenge for implementing climate change adaptation policies, existing scholarship has not adequately explored the relationship between modes of adaptation governance and the implementation of adaptation objectives. This paper analyzes adaptation governance in two Canadian provinces, with a focus on three key elements: actor roles, actor relations, and policy instruments. Drawing on a comprehensive document analysis and 81 interviews, we argue that network governance has been fruitful in coordinating policy ideas and motivating actors across sectors and scales, but has also served as a barrier to effective implementation of adaptation policies. We conclude that incorporating features of other governance modes, including more direct steering from the state, is required to resolve this implementation deficit.

Bednar, D; Henstra, D; McBean, G

The governance of climate change adaptation: are networks to blame for the implementation deficit?

Journal Of Environmental Policy & Planning

https://doi.org/10.1080/1523908X.2019.1670050

In this study, the impacts of climate variables on the mean and variability in Aus variety rice yield in Bangladesh are assessed. Using the theoretical framework of the JustPope production function, cross-sectional time series data on Aus rice yield and maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall at a district level over a period of 38 years are analysed for evidence of rice yield variability as a result of climate change. The findings reveal that minimum temperature and rainfall decrease Aus yield variability. However, maximum temperature appears to increase variability, which may reduce Aus rice production. Therefore, government should create an enabling environment to develop temperature-tolerant rice varieties for Aus rice crop to ensure ongoing food security.

Sarker, MAR; Alam, K; Gow, J

How Does the Variability in Aus Rice Yield Respond to Climate Variables in Bangladesh?

Journal Of Agronomy And Crop Science

https://doi.org/10.1111/jac.12011

This article reports on a research conducted in major Ghanaian cities of Accra and Kumasi that explored urban planners' perspectives on the urban resilience philosophy, and evaluated the available strategies for absorbing disturbances (e.g., floods, rapid population growth, and slum development) while retaining the identity, structure and functionality of Ghanaian cities. Using social science research methods including in-depth interviews with urban planners, and document reviews, findings indicate that despite global urgency towards urban resilience and some level of understanding amongst urban planning professionals, there is no consideration for resilience philosophy in urban planning practice in Ghana. The policy implications of these findings are further presented.

Cobbinah, PB; Poku-Boansi, M

Towards resilient cities in Ghana: Insights and strategies

Futures

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.06.005

This paper reviews the concept of adaptive capacity and various approaches to assessing it, particularly with respect to climate variability and change. I find that adaptive capacity is a relatively under-researched topic within the sustainability science and global change communities, particularly since it is uniquely positioned to improve linkages between vulnerability and resilience research. I identify opportunities for advancing the measurement and characterization of adaptive capacity by combining insights from both vulnerability and resilience frameworks, and I suggest several assessment approaches for possible future development that draw from both frameworks and focus on analyzing the governance, institutions, and management that have helped foster adaptive capacity in light of recent climatic events. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Engle, NL

Adaptive capacity and its assessment

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.01.019

We investigate the role that climatic change has played in the pattern of urbanization in sub-Saharan African countries compared to the rest of the developing world. To this end we assemble a cross-country panel data set that allows us to estimate the determinants of urbanization. The results of our econometric analysis suggest that climatic change, as proxied by rainfall, has acted to change urbanization in sub-Saharan Africa but not elsewhere in the developing world. Moreover, this link has become stronger since decolonization, which is likely due to the often simultaneous lifting of legislation prohibiting the free internal movement of native Africans. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Barrios, S; Bertinelli, L; Strobl, E

Climatic change and rural-urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa

Journal Of Urban Economics

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2006.04.005

We illustrate how the two mid-sized post-socialist eastern German cities Potsdam and Rostock have managed to become climate pioneers, despite being located in regions that have been reluctant with regard to climate action. Drawing on municipal documentation and fieldwork interviews, we show how favorable and interrelated conditions concerning a city's socio-demographic, socio-economic, and particularly political situation were more important for progressive climate action than both cities' embeddedness in their respective regions. We also show how the absence of external ambitions and mayoral support hindered Potsdam and Rostock from making the leap from a pioneer to a leader.

Haupt, W; Kern, K; Irmisch, JL

From climate policy pioneers to climate policy leaders? The examples of the eastern German cities of Potsdam and Rostock

Urban Research & Practice

https://doi.org/10.1080/17535069.2022.2104655

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to better link the parallel processes yielding international agreements on climate change, disaster risk reduction, and sustainable development. Design/methodology/approach - This paper explores how the Paris Agreement for climate change relates to disaster risk reduction and sustainable development, demonstrating too much separation amongst the topics. A resolution is provided through placing climate change within wider disaster risk reduction and sustainable development contexts. Findings - No reason exists for climate change to be separated from wider disaster risk reduction and sustainable development processes. Originality/value - Using a scientific basis to propose an ending for the silos separating international processes for climate change, disaster risk reduction, and sustainable development.

Kelman, I

Linking disaster risk reduction, climate change, and the sustainable development goals

Disaster Prevention And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/DPM-02-2017-0043

Flood risk maps are essential sources of information for flood risk management (FRM) decisions. Commercial flood models used by the insurance industry are rarely studied in the academic literature which has led to difficulties in understanding their sources of uncertainty and opportunities for improvement. This paper compares regions and residential properties identified as exposed to floods by an insurance industry model and by government authorities responsible for FRM in three Canadian cities. Findings show that the insurance model is identifying substantially greater number of regions and properties as at-risk of flood, and little overlap exists between public and private flood maps. The paper discusses opportunities for data integration and increased data transparency for supporting flood resiliency efforts in Canada.

Minano, A; Thistlethwaite, J; Henstra, D; Scott, D

Governance of flood risk data: A comparative analysis of government and insurance geospatial data for identifying properties at risk of flood

Computers Environment And Urban Systems

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2021.101636

As applications of resilience have increased the associated measurement options have grown. An unintended consequence of such growth is that the proliferation of resilience measurement approaches hinders efforts to generate evidence that is conceptually consistent and empirically comparable. To address this problem, the present paper provides a framework to promote harmonized measurement of resilience. The framework is structured around three components: fundamental resilience concepts, resilience measurement domains, and integrated resilience measurement. To illustrate how elements of the framework can be applied to an empirical investigation, a set of indicators from a resilience-focused food security study was examined. In the conclusion, potential benefits of harmonized resilience measurement are discussed, and some challenges are considered.

Constas, MA; d'Errico, M; Pietrelli, R

Toward Core Indicators for Resilience Analysis: A framework to promote harmonized metrics and empirical coherence

Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics And Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2022.100655

After catastrophes, international donors offering assistance must decide whether to channel resources via the local government or non-governmental organizations (NGOs). We examine how these channels differ in targeting aid by combining survey data on aid received by Nicaraguan households before and after Hurricane Mitch. In the short term, NGOs provided aid according to hurricane severity, while government aid allocations were not significantly higher in the hardest hit areas. However, government-provided aid matched that of NGOs several years later. Despite the lag in government aid, we do not find evidence of political manipulation of relief aid in either the short or long-term.

Fitch-Fleischmann, B; Kresch, EP

Story of the hurricane: Government, NGOs, and the difference in disaster relief targeting

Journal Of Development Economics

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102702

The uninterrupted increase of extreme events has vitalized disaster risk research (DRR). DRR, as a multi- and transdisciplinary endeavour, should be framed and implemented within the context of sustainable development, climate change and other challenges. In order to facilitate the adoption of knowledge-based solutions in policy and practice, innovative and integrated approaches to transdisciplinary research have to be matched by appropriate and effective governance structures. Based on the findings of an independent Review of the ICSU1 Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) Interdisciplinary Body, lessons have been learned that can also be relevant for other collaborative, policy-practice oriented science programs.

Beer, T; Bogardi, JJ; Ofir, Z

Towards an efficient science architecture for integrated disaster risk research

Progress In Disaster Science

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2019.100018

Climate-related phenomena historically have had an impact on the lives of urban dwellers of Luanda and Maputo. Recently, however, urban expansion and congestion of different sorts, aggravated by climate change impacts, call for renewed responses on the part of residents. Rising sea levels and harder impacts of flooding are the most disturbing issues in the two coastal capitals, demanding both institutional responses and strategies of urban residents, particularly the most vulnerable. Based on qualitative data collected in Luanda and Maputo, this article describes how urban residents aim to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change and by doing so, shape the cities they live in and their environment.

Rodrigues, CU

Climate change and DIY urbanism in Luanda and Maputo: new urban strategies?

International Journal Of Urban Sustainable Development

https://doi.org/10.1080/19463138.2019.1585859

Communities have competing priorities for limited financial resources. Identifying a capable and affordable tool that can be used in flood adaptation planning will assist in determining strategic investments and enhancing public communication. A state-of-the-art review was conducted of commonly available flood modeling and impact assessment tools that could be utilized for climate adaptation planning by municipalities. Assessment criteria such as flood modeling capabilities, geographic information system integration, damage assessment functions and ease of use were used. Although there are many tools available, based on the criteria used in assessing these models, the US Federal Emergency Management Agency's Hazus-MH tool appears to hold the most promise in being repurposed for adaptation planning.

Banks, JC; Camp, JV; Abkowitz, MD

Adaptation planning for floods: a review of available tools

Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0876-7

Temporal climate risk weighs heavily on many of the world's poor. Model-based climate forecasts could benefit such populations, provided recipients use forecast information to update climate expectations. We test whether pastoralists in southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya update their expectations in response to forecast information. The minority of herders who received these climate forecasts updated their expectations for below normal rainfall, but not for above normal rainfall. This revealed preoccupation with downside risk highlights the potential value of better climate forecasts in averting drought-related losses, but realizing any welfare gains requires that recipients strategically react to these updated expectations. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lybbert, TJ; Barrett, CB; Mcpeak, JG; Luseno, WK

Bayesian herders: Updating of rainfall beliefs in response to external forecasts

World Development

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2006.04.004

This paper considers a dynamical way to connect resilience outcomes and processes by nesting process-based approaches inside a controlled dynamical system under resource constraints. To illustrate this, we use a dynamical model of electric power generation to show the complementary aspects of outcome, resources, and process-based approaches for analyzing infrastructure resilience. The results of this stylized model show that adaptation is the most influential process and that for monitoring to be efficient it must account for associated costs. Beyond these specific results, we suggest that nesting outcome- and process-based approaches within a dynamical controlled framework can be very useful and complementary for infrastructure managers and designers tasked with effectively allocating resources for enhancing system resilience.

Mathias, JD; Clark, SS; Onat, N; Seager, TP

An Integrated Dynamical Modeling Perspective for Infrastructure Resilience

Infrastructures

https://doi.org/10.3390/infrastructures3020011