Datasets:

G11

/

climate_adaptation_abstracts_apr_2024

like 0

Davila, Federico; Bourke, R. M.; McWilliam, Andrew; Crimp, Steven; Robins, Lisa; van Wensveen, Monica; Alders, Robyn G.; Butler, James R. A.

COVID-19 and food systems in Pacific Island Countries, Papua New Guinea, and Timor-Leste: Opportunities for actions towards the sustainable development goals

AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS

Context: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted global food systems. This has led to different strategies by communities, governments, and businesses involved in food systems to mitigate and adapt to the unfolding pandemic. Small Island Developing States are particularly exposed to the conflation of risks from COVID-19 disease, economic downturns, underlying climate vulnerabilities and biosecurity risks. Objective: Our study aimed to identify the food systems vulnerabilities, impacts, and opportunities for supporting resilience and sustainable development in selected Pacific Island countries, Papua New Guinea, and Timor-Leste. The study focused on the impacts from the first six months of the pandemic (February-July 2020), with remote data collection and analysis done between May and July 2020. Methods: We conducted 67 interviews, and triangulated information with desktop and news sources emerging at the time. We present results on the effect on smallholder livelihoods, supply chains, governance, communities and employment. Overall, the major impacts of COVID-19 have been on economies, posing risks to future food security and further hampering progress towards key Sustainable Development Goals. Results and conclusions: We found that unemployment and economic contraction have been the most severe effects to date, with long-term consequences for food value chains and smallholder farmers. Disruptions to tourism, labour migration, and remittances have led to varying socio-economic impacts throughout the region. Vulnerable groups, notably women, urban poor, and youth, have been disproportionately affected by unemployment. TimorLeste has had some social protection measures, whereas in Pacific Countries these have been varied. The lockdowns and State of Emergency initially influenced the distribution and marketing of food, but local food economies are starting to stabilise. The continued functioning of international food supply chains reduced the risk of food insecurity in high import dependent nations, notably import dependent countries like Tuvalu and Kiribati. Significance: The results have significance for three recovery pathways. The first recovery pathway relates to revisiting value chains in light of restricted travel. The second recovery pathway exists through leveraging the adaptive capacities of communities to stimulate innovative agriculture that also integrates climate adaptation and nutrition. The third recovery pathway relates to addressing the structural challenges that perpetuate inequalities and poverty while finding new ways of implementing inclusive policies and research. Our study

2021

10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103137

Banu, M.; Krishnamurthy, Ks; Srinivasan, V; Kandiannan, K.; Surendran, U.

Land suitability analysis for turmeric crop for humid tropical Kerala, India, under current and future climate scenarios using advanced geospatial techniques

JOURNAL OF THE SCIENCE OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE

BACKGROUND: Turmeric cultivation primarily thrives in India, followed by Bangladesh, Cambodia, Thailand, China, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines. India leads globally in both area and production of turmeric. Despite this, there is a recognized gap in research regarding the impact of climate change on site suitability of turmeric. The primary objective of the present study was to evaluate both the present and future suitability of turmeric cultivation within the humid tropical region of Kerala, India, by employing advanced geospatial techniques. The research utilized meteorological data from the Indian Meteorological Department for the period of 1986-2020 as historical data and projected future data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Four climatic scenarios of shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR6 model of MIROC6 for the year 2050 (SSP 1-2.6, SSP 2-4.5, SSP 3-7.0 and SSP 5-8.5) were used. RESULTS: The results showed that suitable area for turmeric cultivation is declining in future scenario and this decline can be primarily attributed to fluctuations in temperature and an anticipated increase in rainfall in the year 2050. Notable changes in the spatial distribution of suitable areas over time were observed through the application of geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Importantly, as per the suitability criteria provided by ICAR-National Bureau of Soil Survey and Land Use Planning (ICAR-NBSS & LUP), all the districts in Kerala exhibited moderately suitable conditions for turmeric cultivation. With the GIS tools, the study identified highly suitable, moderately suitable, marginally suitable and not suitable areas of turmeric cultivation in Kerala. Presently 28% of area falls under highly suitable, 41% of area falls under moderately suitable and 11% falls under not suitable for turmeric cultivation. However, considering the projected scenarios for 2050 under the SSP framework, there will be a significant decrease in highly suitable area by 19% under SSP 5-8.5. This reduction in area will have an impact on the productivity of the crop as a result of changes in temperature and rainfall patterns. CONCLUSION: The outcome of the present research suggests that the state of Kerala needs to implement suitable climate change adaptation and management strategies for sustaining the turmeric cultivation. Additionally, the present study includes a discussion on potential management strategies to address the challenges posed by changing climatic conditions for optimizing turmeric production in the region.

2024

10.1002/jsfa.13299

Mori, Akira S.; Johnson, Edward A.

Assessing possible shifts in wildfire regimes under a changing climate in mountainous landscapes

FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

Climate change may affect the probability of extreme events such as wildfires. Although wildfires are some of the most important ecological processes in forest ecosystems, large-scale wildfires are often perceived as an environmental disaster. Since failure to include the dynamic nature of ecosystems in planning will inevitably lead to unexpected outcomes, we need to enhance our ability to cope with future extreme events coupled with climate change. This study presents several future scenarios in three different time periods for Canada's Columbia Montane Cordillera Ecoprovince, which is prone to wildfires. These scenarios predict the probability of occurrence of widespread wildfires based on the hierarchical Bayesian model. The model was based on the relationships between wildfires and the Monthly Drought Code (MDC). The MDC is a generalized monthly version of the Daily Drought Code widely used across Canada by forest fire management agencies for monitoring of wildfire risk. To calculate future MDC values, we relied on different possible future conditions of climate, given by the Global Circulation Models. We found a regime shift in drought intensity with abrupt decreases in lightning-caused wildfire activity around 1940, suggesting that future wildfire risks can be inferred primarily from the summer drought code. For future periods, we found increasing trends in the probabilities of large-scale fires with time in most areas. It should be notable that, by the 2080s, there is a probability of some areas having more than 50% of large-scale wildfires under the average climatic conditions in the future, indicating that, even without extreme weather conditions, some ecosystems will have a fundamental probability of experiencing catastrophic fires under the condition of average summer. However, the rate of progression toward a fire-prone condition is quite different among the three climate change scenarios and among the region analyzed. Given such scenario-sensitive, spatially-heterogeneous patterns of wildfire probability in response to climate variability, management strategy should be flexible and more localized. By drawing on this knowledge, it may be possible to mitigate climate change impacts both before they arise and once they have occurred. These considerations are critical for maintaining the integrity of systems shaped by large-scale natural disturbances to increase their resilience to the changing climate while protecting human society and infrastructures. Working with alternative scenarios will facilitate our adaptation to climate change in managing fire-prone forest ecosystems.

2013

10.1016/j.foreco.2013.09.036

Wolka, Kebede; Uma, Tadese; Tofu, Daniel Assefa

The role of integrated watershed management in climate change adaptation for small-scale farmers in Southwest Ethiopia

ENVIRONMENTAL AND SUSTAINABILITY INDICATORS

Climate change severely affects smallholder farmers in developing countries such as Ethiopia. To overcome the impacts, the government of Ethiopia has been undertaking a massive adaptation programs including integrated watershed management practices. However, there is a limited understanding of climate change, adaptation strategies, and the effect and acceptance of the implemented techniques. The objective of this study was to assess climate variability, farmers' climate change adaptation strategies, and the role of watershed management in climate change adaptation. A multi-stage sampling technique was used to select 255 household heads from three rural kebeles (lowest administrative unit of government) in high, mid, and low-elevation areas. The household survey, focus group discussion, and key informant interview record were used to collect data. In addition, long term meteorology record was used. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and a multinomial logit model. The results showed that more than 80% of the farmers, in each elevation, perceived climate variability such as increasing temperature and rainfall fluctuations. The perceived variability is more pronounced in the low-elevation areas. The meteorology record also showed fluctuation in rainfall. About 90% of respondents in each elevation area perceived population pressure, cultivation, and deforestation as the major causes of climate variability. About 90% of respondents perceived crop yield decline due to climate variability. In drought years, crop yield and livestock production decline by similar to 50% compared to the average year. Adjustment of crop planting time, crop diversification, selling household assets, participating in off-farm activities, and using government aid were practiced as climate change adaptation measures. About 70% of farmers perceived the positive role of watershed management in climate change adaptation. On average, 36-43% of the farmers in the study area participated in watershed management activities such as the construction of bunds and tree planting, which assist in coping with climate variability impacts. Farm size, sex, education, and farming experience positively and significantly affect the adaptation practices of the farmers. Policymakers and practitioners need to consider the issues related to climate variability and watershed management as a strategy for climate change adaptation. Policy intervention by the Federal government on sustainable watershed management and rural livelihood strategies could assist in sustainable environmental management and climate change adaptation.

2023

10.1016/j.indic.2023.100260

Mihliardic, Omer Kutay; Sirdas, Sevinc Asilhan; Kaya, Serkan

An early indicator index of tornadic storms for Euro-Mediterranean region

NATURAL HAZARDS

Tornadoes are the most violent and destructive of all the severe weather phenomena that localized convective storms produce. There is a requirement in operational meteorology increasing nowadays that an indicator index which allows to reduce the uncertainty of severe convective storms and tornadoes in the scope of climate change adaptation strategies. The main intention is not to replace or substitute mesoscale modeling approaches, or composite indexes, but to warn operationally to draw attention to the Eastern Mediterranean and Turkiye in particular a few days in advance. The development of some indicators using atmospheric variables can undertake a crucial role by enabling such numerical models to be run only at certain time intervals, thus enduring lower computational costs. In this study, Eastern Mediterranean oscillation index (EMEDOi) has been developed in order to be able to detect the presence of ULLs (upper-level low) and frontogenesis approach is employed for selected tornadic storm events in Turkiye. EMEDOi has 7 different its variations (members) which these members have been developed to detect differences depending on the entry directions of cyclones and storms influencing Turkiye from the west of the country. In line with the GDAS data analysis, values of geopotential height are derived for the requirement of EMEDOi in a limited area. A few of the results from the study are as in the following: 86% of the trained tornado events revealed that the EMEDO-Oper index was in negative phase at the time a tornado was reported, regardless of whether the events featured a supercell mesoscale convective storm or a frontal movement. The hourly period until the local minimum is obtained can be described and characterized as the process by which the EMEDO-Oper index value decreases continuously. The time required to reach the local minimum varies based on the tornado occurrence. Based on the tornadic storm scenario in the test cluster in 2022 and the train cluster, this timeframe is predicted to be roughly 33.2 h on average. In western Turkiye, there is a 79% chance of a tornado occurring between six and forty-two hours after the EMEDO-Oper index reaches its local minimum. In particular, the projected chance for this period is 63% between 12 and 30 h after the local minimum is obtained. Besides, the majority of the tornado incidents with EMEDO-Oper values below - 0.75 were evaluated. After an EMEDO-Oper index value falls below that threshold, it is likely to forecast the risk period of a tornado in Turkiye with a probability of 79% and the local minimum point must be identified.

2024

10.1007/s11069-023-06326-x

Springmann, Marco; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Garnett, Tara; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Gollin, Douglas; Rayner, Mike; Ballon, Paola; Scarborough, Peter

Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study

LANCET

Background One of the most important consequences of climate change could be its effects on agriculture. Although much research has focused on questions of food security, less has been devoted to assessing the wider health impacts of future changes in agricultural production. In this modelling study, we estimate excess mortality attributable to agriculturally mediated changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors by cause of death for 155 world regions in the year 2050. Methods For this modelling study, we linked a detailed agricultural modelling framework, the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), to a comparative risk assessment of changes in fruit and vegetable consumption, red meat consumption, and bodyweight for deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke, cancer, and an aggregate of other causes. We calculated the change in the number of deaths attributable to climate-related changes in weight and diets for the combination of four emissions pathways (a high emissions pathway, two medium emissions pathways, and a low emissions pathway) and three socioeconomic pathways (sustainable development, middle of the road, and more fragmented development), which each included six scenarios with variable climatic inputs. Findings The model projects that by 2050, climate change will lead to per-person reductions of 3.2% (SD 0.4%) in global food availability, 4.0% (0.7%) in fruit and vegetable consumption, and 0.7% (0.1%) in red meat consumption. These changes will be associated with 529 000 climate-related deaths worldwide (95% CI 314 000-736 000), representing a 28% (95% CI 26-33) reduction in the number of deaths that would be avoided because of changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors between 2010 and 2050. Twice as many climate-related deaths were associated with reductions in fruit and vegetable consumption than with climate-related increases in the prevalence of underweight, and most climate-related deaths were projected to occur in south and east Asia. Adoption of climate-stabilisation pathways would reduce the number of climate-related deaths by 29-71%, depending on their stringency. Interpretation The health effects of climate change from changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors could be substantial, and exceed other climate-related health impacts that have been estimated. Climate change mitigation could prevent many climate-related deaths. Strengthening of public health programmes aimed at preventing and treating diet and weight-related risk factors could be a suitable climate change adaptation strategy.

2016

10.1016/S0140-6736(15)01156-3

Hulme, M

Abrupt climate change: can society cope?

PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES

Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate-change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and those who argue that the unknowns in the Earth system are too large to justify such early action. This paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in terms of its potential implications for society, focusing on the UK and northwest Europe in particular. The nature of abrupt climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are examined. Using the example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC), the suggested implications for society of abrupt climate change are reviewed; previous work has been largely speculative and has generally considered the implications only from economic and ecological perspectives. Some observations about the implications from a more social and behavioural science perspective are made. If abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in climate, the design of adaptation to climate change can proceed within the existing paradigm, with appropriate adjustments. Limits to adaptation in some sectors or regions may be reached, and the costs of appropriate adaptive behaviour may be large, but strategy can develop on the basis of a predicted long-term unidirectional change in climate. It would be more challenging, however, if abrupt climate change implied a directional change in climate, as, for example, may well occur in northwest Europe following a collapse of the THC. There are two fundamental problems for society associated with such an outcome: first, the future changes in climate currently being anticipated and prepared for may reverse and, second, the probability of such a scenario occurring remains fundamentally unknown. The implications of both problems for climate policy and for decision making have not been researched. It is premature to argue therefore that abrupt climate change-in the sense referred to here-imposes unacceptable costs on society or the world economy, represents a catastrophic impact of climate change or constitutes a dangerous change in climate that should be avoided at all reasonable cost. We conclude by examining the implications of this contention for future research and policy formation.

2003

10.1098/rsta.2003.1239

Ahmed, Naeem; Padda, Ihtsham Ul Haq; Khan, Azra; Otil, Maria Daniela; Cismas, Laura Mariana; Miculescu, Andra; Rehman, Abdul

Climate change adaption strategies in urban communities: new evidence from Islamabad, Pakistan

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH

Pakistan is urbanizing at the fastest pace in South Asia, and if left unplanned, it will not only reduce adaptive capacity of its residents rather it will be a chaos for its residents. The aim of this study is to answer the question on how urbanites of Pakistan are coping with climate change and which part of the society required support to cope with changing climate? To answer this questions, this study conducted survey through a structured questionnaire, from the urban residents of Islamabad, to explore their coping mechanisms towards climate change. Survey collected information on demographic, social, economic, and physical aspects, using Hackman's Treatment effect model. The sample selection equation is conditional on the adaptations to climate change in the outcome equation. Main independent variables are income, age, education, and occupation. Selection equation is based on perceptions of individuals about climate change which contains dependent variables of changes in temperature of summers and winters, changes in rain fall pattern, fog, hailstorm, and information received from social media and peer groups. With the result of 57.55, the Wald test shows that overall, there exists goodness of fit at the 99 percent confidence level. The value of rho in the Heckman model is 0.40 which implies the Heckman model provides more consistent and more efficient estimates. The results are suggesting that increasing age enhances the likelihood of adaptations as the positive and significant coefficient of age implies that age has probability to adapt to climate change. The positive and significant coefficient of income, education, and occupation implies that urbanites have higher probability to adapt to climate change. Perception is the essential foundation of adaptation, and differences in perception can be transferred to the adapted strategies. Households that experience a greater variation in annual mean temperature are more likely to adopt any adaptation strategy to cope with climate change. Essentially, poverty encompasses the majority of the characteristics that reduce respondents' adaptation capacity and increase their susceptibility to climate change. The major contextual disparities were discovered across union councils in the form of financial, personal, social, physical, and natural capitals of families. Therefore, obligation is on government to offer greater support for individuals who are less affluent in terms of these assets. For this city, officials must offer subsidy schemes to less privileged and marginalized people of urban dwellers to enhance their adaptive capacity.

2023

10.1007/s11356-023-25316-x

Lehmann, Iris; Mathey, Juliane; Roessler, Stefanie; Braeuer, Anne; Goldberg, Valeri

Urban vegetation structure types as a methodological approach for identifying ecosystem services - Application to the analysis of micro-climatic effects

ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS

Increasingly decision-makers and politicians are becoming aware of the importance of urban ecosystem services (ESS). This creates an opportunity to deal with recent challenges of urban development. However, questions remain on how to assess and manage these services as well as to transfer the opportunities which present themselves into planning procedures. Since urban planning is mainly about land use decisions, approaches are required that describe and evaluate ESS in relation to the typologies and procedures of urban planners. ESS depend on the structural parameters of urban green spaces. In order to facilitate the analysis and evaluation of these parameters, a method has been sought to enable the detailed identification of ESS on the basis of urban vegetation structures. The so-called urban vegetation structure type (UVST) approach is based on the mapping of urban biotope types as well as an analysis of terrestrial and aerial photographs. It enables the identification and description of all areas within a city characterized by vegetation according to type, size, structural characterization as well as density, structure and building type. The analysis of vegetation structures and the determination of patterns of greenery were realized for the map of the urban biotope types of the City of Dresden, Germany. This led to the identification of 57 UVSTs, distinguished in terms of the level of soil-sealing, structure and type of building as well as the structure and amount of vegetation. By applying these UVSTs, average values for the amount of green space, the green volume and the proportion of sealed surface for the entire city as well as for urban districts can be determined. This provides a solid basis upon which to investigate diverse ESS and assess the ecological quality of urban structures. Climate change models predict that average temperatures are to rise. As densely built-up urban areas are particularly affected by such warming effects, planners need to take account of climate data in urban planning processes. An analysis of micro-climatic effects is offered by this paper as an example for the application of the introduced approach, particularly aimed at illustrating the differences between various urban vegetation structures concerning their micro-climatic effects. Selected results of climate modelling are presented, confirming clear differences in the micro-climatic effects of several UVSTs, both at city and urban-district level. The UVST approach is also appropriate for case studies concerning the micro-climatic impact of changes in land use at the urban-district level.

2014

10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.02.036

Hessen, Dag O.; Vandvik, Vigdis

Buffering Climate Change with Nature

WEATHER CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

It is increasingly evident that climate sustainability depends not only on societal actions and responses, but also on ecosystem functioning and responses. The capacity of global ecosystems to provide services such as sequestering carbon and regulating hydrology is being strongly reduced both by climate change itself and by unprecedented rates of ecosystem degradation. These services rely on functional aspects of ecosystems that are causally linked-the same ecosystem components that efficiently sequester and store carbon also regulate hydrology by sequestering and storing water. This means that climate change adaptation and mitigation must involve not only preparing for a future with temperature and precipitation anomalies, but also actively minimizing climate hazards and risks by conserving and managing ecosystems and their fundamental supporting and regulating ecosystem services. We summarize general climate-nature feedback processes relating to carbon and water cycling on a broad global scale before focusing on Norway to exemplify the crucial role of ecosystem regulatory services for both carbon sequestration and hydrological processes and the common neglect of this ecosystem-climate link in policy and landscape management. We argue that a key instrument for both climate change mitigation and adaptation policy is to take advantage of the climate buffering and regulative abilities of a well-functioning natural ecosystem. This will enable shared benefits to nature, climate, and human well-being. To meet the global climate and nature crises, we must capitalize on the importance of nature for buffering climate change effects, combat short-term perspectives and the discounting of future costs, and maintain or even strengthen whole-ecosystem functioning at the landscape level. Significance StatementNatural ecosystems such as forests, wetlands, and heaths are key for the cycling and storage of water and carbon. Preserving these systems is essential for climate mitigation and adaptation and will also secure biodiversity and associated ecosystem services. Systematic failure to recognize the links between nature and human well-being underlies the current trend of accelerating loss of nature and thereby nature's ability to buffer climate changes and their impacts. Society needs a new perspective on spatial planning that values nature as a sink and store of carbon and a regulator of hydrological processes, as well as for its biodiversity. We need policies that fully encompass the role of nature in preventing climate-induced disasters, along with many other benefits for human well-being.

2022

10.1175/WCAS-D-21-0059.1

Andrews, Caitlin M.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Fraver, Shawn; Palik, Brian; Battaglia, Michael A.; Bradford, John B.

Low stand density moderates growth declines during hot droughts in semi-arid forests

JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY

Increasing heat and aridity in coming decades is expected to negatively impact tree growth and threaten forest sustainability in dry areas. Maintaining low stand density has the potential to mitigate the negative effects of increasingly severe droughts by minimizing competitive intensity. However, the direct impact of stand density on the growing environment (i.e. soil moisture), and the specific drought metrics that best quantify that environment, are not well explored for any forest ecosystem. We examined the relationship of varying stand density (i.e. basal area) on soil moisture and stand-level growth in a long-term (multi-decadal), ponderosa pine Pinus ponderosa, forest management experiment. We accounted for the influence of stand-level density on moisture availability by measuring and modelling soil moisture using an ecosystem water balance model. To quantify the growing environment, we developed metrics of ecological drought that integrate the influence of moisture availability in the soil with moisture demand by the atmosphere. We paired these results with stand-level dendrochronological data, avoiding the potential bias introduced from individual tree-based assessments, and used critical climate period analysis to identify the timing and duration of these drought metrics that most relate to forest growth. We found that stand-level growth is highly responsive to the combination of high temperature and low soil moisture. Growth in all stands was negatively related to temperature and positively related to moisture availability, although the sensitivity of growth to those conditions varied among stand density treatments. Growth enhancement during cool years is greatest in low density stands. In addition, low density stands displayed substantially higher long-term average growth than higher density stands and maintained higher growth even when temperatures were high. Growth in low density stands also increased more than higher density stands in response to greater long-term moisture availability. Synthesis and applications. We quantified the influence of stand-level density on the environmental conditions that determine tree growth and related forest growth to patterns of moisture supply and demand. Our drought metrics, and analytical approach for quantifying drought impacts on forest growth, are a novel approach for assessing forest vulnerability to drought under climate change. These results provide new perspective on the potential for density management to mitigate drought stress and maintain forest stand growth during and after drought events in water-limited forests.

2020

10.1111/1365-2664.13615

Ferreira, Mauricio Lamano; Dalmas, Fabricio Bau; Santanna, Maryly; Rodrigues, Elaine Aparecida; Sodre, Marcelo Gomes

Sustainable development in Sao Paulo's Green Belt Biosphere Reserve: between the void of municipal environmental policies and the ecosystem management of the territory

REVISTA DE GESTAO AMBIENTAL E SUSTENTABILIDADE-GEAS

Introduction: The Green Belt Biosphere Reserve, with 2.33 million hectares and its internal urban area with 220 thousand hectares, is configured as a water security territory and expresses a direct relationship between urban development and areas that ensure well-being and ecosystem services for 12% of Brazil's population. With seventy-eight municipalities that fully or partially integrate the GBBR, the socioeconomic differences and the different contexts of urbanization and governance reflect on territorial management at the local level and impact the environmental and regional sustainable development agendas. Objective: Based on a survey of environmental policies and correlations between economic and socio-environmental indicators on a municipal scale for the entire study area, this article assesses the level of development of the main environmental public policies and identifies the relationship between these policies and socio-environmental indicators. Originality: Although the Green Belt Biosphere Reserve is an area recognized by the United Nations (UN), the management of its territory depends on municipal actions that comprise it. Little attention has been paid to environmental management, especially in terms of public environmental policies and a broad and ongoing understanding of the conservation of this area. Results: The analysis shows that the different municipalities in the GBBR have different levels of implementation regarding Environmental Agenda. When considering the Municipal Plans for Urban Afforestation, Adaptation to Climate Change, Atlantic Forest and Solid Waste, only Guaruja, Mogi das Cruzes, Santos and Sao Paulo have these four policies in preparation or completed, while for 33.3% (n=25) of the municipalities, none of these agendas was developed, and a positive correlation was identified between the HDI and the largest number of implemented policies. Contribution: Large and medium-sized cities in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, present studies addressing ecological patterns and processes, however, they do not address specific questions on the environmental sector itself, which this paper aimed at providing. Conclusion: As the Green Belt accounts for 72% of the volume of drinking water in all of Sao Paulo, the disparities between the municipal indicators analyzed reinforce the need to adopt the GBBR as a platform for adequate governance to integrate policies at different scales for sustainable regional development. Systemic efforts are needed, especially at the municipal scale, in order to carry out adequate environmental management of the GBBR territory.

2023

10.5585/2023.22940

Zhang, Sixuan; Wang, Bingyun; Yin, Li; Wang, Shigong; Hu, Wendong; Song, Xueqian; Feng, Hongmei

Novel Evidence Showing the Possible Effect of Environmental Variables on COVID-19 Spread

GEOHEALTH

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) remains a serious issue, and the role played by meteorological indicators in the process of virus spread has been a topic of academic discussion. Previous studies reached different conclusions due to inconsistent methods, disparate meteorological indicators, and specific time periods or regions. This manuscript is based on seven daily meteorological indicators in the NCEP reanalysis data set and COVID-19 data repository of Johns Hopkins University from 22 January 2020 to 1 June 2021. Results showed that worldwide average temperature and precipitable water (PW) had the strongest correlation (p > 0.9, p < 0.001) with the confirmed COVID-19 cases per day from 22 January to 31 August 2020. From 22 January to 31 August 2020, positive correlations were observed between the temperature/ PW and confirmed COVID-19 cases/deaths in the northern hemisphere, whereas negative correlations were recorded in the southern hemisphere. From 1 September to 31 December 2020, the opposite results were observed. Correlations were weak throughout the near full year, and weak negative correlations were detected worldwide (vertical bar rho vertical bar < 0.4, p <= 0.05); the lag time had no obvious effect. As the latitude increased, the temperature and PW of the maximum confirmed COVID-19 cases/deaths per day generally showed a decreasing trend; the 2020-year fitting functions of the response latitude pattern were verified by the 2021 data. Meteorological indicators, although not a decisive factor, may influence the virus spread by affecting the virus survival rates and enthusiasm of human activities. The temperature or PW threshold suitable for the spread of COVID-19 may increase as the latitude decreases. Plain Language Summary Climate change has altered life's living environment; humans seem to be able to adapt to climate change within a certain range. This adaptability seems to be human talent, but how about a coronavirus? The impact of environmental variables on coronavirus disease (COVID-19) spread varies between regions. The two meteorological variables that are most likely to affect the distribution of COVID-19 have significant latitude patterns, which means that in areas with higher climate temperatures, the temperature range for the maximum spread of COVID-19 is higher, while in areas with lower climate temperatures, the temperature for the maximum spread of COVID-19 is lower. Perhaps it indicates that the virus also has the ability to adapt to climate change, even more so than humanity. The complete cessation of COVID-19 pandemic requires everyone's efforts.

2022

10.1029/2021GH000502

Lychuk, Taras E.; Hill, Robert L.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Momen, Bahram; Thomson, Allison M.

Evaluation of climate change impacts and effectiveness of adaptation options on nitrate loss, microbial respiration, and soil organic carbon in the Southeastern USA

AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS

CONTEXT: Climate change presents an agricultural challenge in the Southeastern USA with implications for maintaining environmental quality. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess climate change impacts and adaptation practices (biochar and irrigation) simulated with the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model on nitrate-N (NO3-N) losses, microbial respiration (MR) and soil organic carbon (SOC) in the Southeastern USA. METHODS: The EPIC model was used to assess the impacts of climate change and adaptations on NO3-N losses in leachate and runoff from the soil profile (0-100 cm), loss of soil C via MR (0-100 cm), and impacts on SOC stocks (0-10 cm) for representative farms growing C-3 and C-4 crops within ten Southeastern USA states. The adaptations explored were annual biochar applications and irrigation. Historical baseline (1979-2009) and future (2041-2070) climate scenarios were used for simulations with CO2 concentrations of 360 ppm and 500 ppm, respectively. Four regional climate models (RCMs), nested within global climate models (GCMs) for their boundary conditions, simulated changes in air temperatures, precipitation, and solar radiation. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Climate change increased simulated NO3-N losses in leaching and runoff by 40-80%, compared to historical baseline scenarios that was attributed to overall increased annual precipitation under three of the four RCM_GCM models. For the C(4 )crops, NO3-N leaching and runoff losses were 16-47% and 31-45% lower than for the C-3 crops, respectively. Biochar applications reduced NO3-N leaching in the West region during 2066-2070 under the RCM3_CGCM3 model. The differences in MR between the C-4 and C-3 crops ranged from 3 to 75%. SOC increased under C-4 crops and when biochar was applied. We concluded that inclusion of C-4 crops in crop rotations and the applications of biochar under wetter climate scenarios may be a promising adaptation strategy to reduce NO3-N losses and increase SOC content in the soils of the Southeastern USA. SIGNIFICANCE: This study represents one of the first attempts to assess the effectiveness of climate change adaptations such as the agricultural use of biochar and irrigation. The findings from this study strongly contribute to our understanding of potential climate change impacts on a region's agriculture and resulting environmental footprint. This information may be used by the scientific community along with decision and policy makers working on conceptual and practical technologies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on agriculture and the environment.

2021

10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103210

Berihun, Mulatu Liyew; Tsunekawa, Atsushi; Haregeweyn, Nigussie; Tsubo, Mitsuru; Yasuda, Hiroshi; Fenta, Ayele Almaw; Dile, Yihun Taddele; Bayabil, Haimanote Kebede; Tilahun, Seifu Admassu

Examining the past 120 years' climate dynamics of Ethiopia

THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY

Climate change is one of the environmental threats around the globe. However, this change is not uniform throughout the world, both spatially and temporally. This study, therefore, examined the spatiotemporal (annual and seasonal) variability and trends of rainfall and temperature over Ethiopia from 1901 to 2020. Monthly rainfall and temperature (maximum, minimum, and mean) data were extracted from the latest version of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU 4.05) dataset. Using long-term seasonal rainfall patterns and pixel-based correlation techniques, five homogeneous rainfall zones were identified. The rainfall and temperature from CRU were validated using observed data from 235 and 145 meteorological stations, respectively. The results revealed that inter-seasonal rainfall and temperature variabilities are more pronounced than interannual variabilities in all rainfall zones. Only 19% (215,700 km(2)) and 3% (33, 900 km(2)) of the country's total area experienced statistically significant (& alpha; = 0.05) decreasing and increasing trends of rainfall, respectively from 1901 to 2020. A statistically significant decreasing trend in rainfall with time was observed during the summer in only one zone that received rainfall in all months. A precipitation concentration index analysis revealed that the country exhibited a moderate to strongly irregular annual and seasonal rainfall distribution, except during the summer when the rainfall distribution was uniform. There was hence a high degree of rainfall seasonality throughout the study period. In addition to the devastating 1984 nationwide drought, Ethiopia also experienced local droughts for a number of 10 to 20 years. Unlike rainfall, there was a significant (& alpha; = 0.05) spatiotemporal increasing trend of temperature over the country. The spatial and temporal increasing trend of mean temperature over 120 years ranged from 0.24(o)C to 1.92(o)C and 0.72(o)C to 1.08(o)C, respectively. This increasing trend was higher in two zones located in the western and northwest parts of Ethiopia and the inflection points occurred after the 1970s in all zones. It is noteworthy that the maximum temperature increased at a lower rate than the minimum temperature. The warming trends and changes in rainfall patterns are likely to increase the frequency of climate extreme events and impact ecosystem services. This study suggests that climate change-sensitive zones require more attention and further study to enhance awareness of climate change in Ethiopia and facilitate adaptation to climate change and inform actions to mitigate adverse effects.

2023

10.1007/s00704-023-04572-4

Mueller-Czygan, Gunter; Tarasyuk, Viktoriya; Wagner, Christian; Wimmer, Manuela

How Does Digitization Succeed in the Municipal Water Sector? The WaterExe4.0 Meta-Study Identifies Barriers as well as Success Factors, and Reveals Expectations for the Future

ENERGIES

Water is increasingly taking center stage when it comes to coping with climate change. Especially in urban areas, negative consequences from heavy rainfall events and prolonged dry periods are rising worldwide. In the past, the various tasks of urban water management were performed by different departments that often did not cooperate with each other (water supply, wastewater disposal, green space irrigation, etc.), as the required water supply was not a question of available water volumes. This is already changing with climate change, in some cases even dramatically. More and more, it is necessary to consider how to distribute available water resources in urban areas, especially during dry periods, since wastewater treatment is also becoming more complex and costly. In the future, urban water management will examine water use in terms of its various objectives, and will need to provide alternative water resources for these different purposes (groundwater, river water, storm water, treated wastewater, etc.). The necessary technological interconnection requires intelligent digital systems. Furthermore, the water industry must also play its role in global CO2 reduction and make its procedural treatment processes more efficient; this will also only succeed with adequate digital systems. Although digitization has experienced an enormous surge in development over the last five years and numerous solutions are available to address the challenges described previously, there is still a large gap between the scope of offerings and their implementation. Researchers at Hof University of Applied Sciences have investigated the reasons for this imbalance as part of WaterExe4.0, the first meta-study on digitization in the German-speaking water industry, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. Only 11% of roughly 700 identified products, projects and studies relate to real applications. For example, the surveyed experts of the water sector stated that everyday problems are considered too little or hardly at all in new solutions, which greatly overburdens users. Furthermore, they see no adequate possibility for a systematic analysis of new ideas to identify significant obstacles and to find the best way to start and implement a digitization project. The results from four methodologically different sub-surveys (literature and market research, survey, expert interviews and workshops) provide a reliable overview of the current situation in the German-speaking water industry and its expectations for the future. The results are also transferable to other countries.

2021

10.3390/en14227709

Wu, Hao; Long, Buju; Huang, Na; Lu, Nan; Qian, Chuanhai; Pan, Zhihua; Men, Jingyu; Zhang, Zhenzhen

Impacts of Climate Change on Ecological Water Use in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region in China

WATER

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in China is experiencing a serious ecological water scarcity problem in the context of climate warming and drying. There is an urgent need for practical adaptation measures to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change and provide a scientific basis for urban water supply planning, water resource management, and policy formulation. Urban ecological water can maintain the structure and function of urban ecosystems, both as an environmental element and as a resource. Current research lacks quantitative analysis of the impact of regional meteorological factors on ecological water use at the small and medium scales. Based on the meteorological data and statistical data of water resources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, this paper analyzed the trend of climate change and established an ecological climatic water model using gray correlation analysis, polynomial simulation, and singular spectrum analysis to predict the ecological water consumption. And, we assessed the climatic sensitivity of ecological water use and estimated the future ecological climatic water use in the BTH region based on four climate scenarios' data. The results showed that the average multi-year temperature was 13.2 degrees C with a clear upward trend from 1991 to 2020 in the BTH region. The multi-year average precipitation was 517.1 mm, with a clear shift in the period of abundance and desiccation. Ecological climatic water modeling showed that a 1 degrees C increase in temperature will increase ecological water use by 0.73 x 10(8) m(3)similar to 1.09 x 10(8) m(3) in the BTH region; for a 100 mm increase in precipitation, ecological water use will decrease by 0.49 x 10(8) m(3 similar to)0.88 x 10 m(3); under the four climate scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, the regional ecological climatic water use will be 5.14 x 10(8) m(3), 6.64 x 10(8) m(3), 7.82 x 10(8) m(3), and 9.06 x 10(8) m(3) in 2035, respectively; and in 2050, the ecological climatic water use will be 8.16 x 10(8) m(3), 9.75 x 10(8) m(3), 10.71 x 10(8) m(3), and 12.41 x 10(8) m(3), respectively. The methodology and results of this study will support the quantification of climate change impacts on ecological water use in the BTH region and serve as a theoretical basis for future research on ecological water use adaptation to climate change. This study can provide a basis for the development of the overall planning of urban ecological water supply, and at the same time, it can lay a foundation for the study of measures to adapt to climate change by ecological water use.

2024

10.3390/w16020319

Marvuglia, Antonino; Koppelaar, Rembrandt; Rugani, Benedetto

The effect of green roofs on the reduction of mortality due to heatwaves: Results from the application of a spatial microsimulation model to four European cities

ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

Embedding nature-based solutions (NBS) in cities is expected to bring quantifiable benefits, including resilience to flooding, drought, and heatwaves, and air quality improvement. Among NBS, green roofs have an important role in temperature regulation in buildings and in lowering the damaging effects of heatwaves on human health. In this paper a spatial microsimulation model is implemented to simulate temperature impacts of green roofs installations in cities and their capacity to attenuate the effects of heatwave episodes. Particularly vulnerable to heatwaves are elderly people with limited mobility, who have limited means to seek cooling and create cooler indoor environments. The model, implemented using the Netlogo platform (version 6.0.4), considers as agents the elderly citizens in a city area and simulates the heatwave-related health impacts, which are measured in mortality likelihood. In particular, the model simulates a generalised 1.5 degrees C to 3 degrees C indoor temperature reduction range induced by green roofs (based on inferences from green roof literature) in four different European cities: Szeged (Hungary), Alcal'a de Henares (Spain), Metropolitan City of Milan (Italy) and Cankaya municipality (Turkey). The simulation utilises a ceteris paribus modelling approach, meaning that the relationships of the observed phenomenon (mortality induced by heatwaves) with other possible influencing factors (e.g. level of sport and physical activities practiced by people) are not taken into account. In the case of Szeged, Alcal'a de Henares, and Cankaya municipality a substantial reduction in mortality is found to occur associated with green roofs roll out. In the case of the Metropolitan city of Milan, green roofs installations show a low mitigation effect in some scenarios. The underlying factor is the temperature threshold parameter of the model, above which heatwave mortality occurs. This parameter was inferred from the literature (Baccini M., et al., 2008) and it resulted to be substantially higher in the Metropolitan city of Milan (31.8 degrees C) than in the other cities. The simulation helps in obtaining results which are specific to a given city and particular scenarios therein, and provides additional insights, such as expected temperature mitigation effect induced by green roofs under climate change conditions, or the indoor temperature reduction targets that are needed for a particular city to have a maximum desired heatwave mitigation impact. However, the model parameters have to be carefully selected, after an accurate study of the domain literature.

2020

10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109351

Lychuk, Taras E.; Moulin, Alan P.; Lemke, Reynald L.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Johnson, Eric N.; Olfert, Owen O.; Brandt, Stewart A.

Modelling the effects of climate change, agricultural inputs, cropping diversity, and environment on soil nitrogen and phosphorus: A case study in Saskatchewan, Canada

AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT

The relative impact of climate change, agricultural inputs, crop diversity, and environment on soil nitrate-N (NO3-N) and labile soil phosphorus (P) has seldom been assessed in the scientific literature. Furthermore crop management of plant nutrients, based on a combination of agricultural inputs and crop diversity, has not been assessed with respect to adaptation to climate change. This modeling study assessed soil NO3-N leaching and labile P simulated with the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model for historical and future climate scenarios for the Alternative Cropping Systems (ACS) study (1994-2013) in North-Western Saskatchewan, Canada. The EPIC model was updated with 19 years of field management information from the ACS study. The field study was a combination of the three levels of agricultural inputs [organic (ORG), reduced (RED), and high (HI)] and three levels of cropping diversity [low (LOW), diversified annual grains (DAG), and diversified annual & perennial (DAP)]. Recursive partitioning with multivariate analyses of agricultural inputs, cropping diversity, precipitation, growing degree days, and terrain were used to assess changes in NO3-N and P for each climate change scenario. This is the first analysis, with the EPIC model in the Canadian Prairies, of the effects of climate change on NO3-N losses in agricultural runoff, and soil P content in the context of different agricultural input systems in combinations with diversified rotations. NO3-N losses increased by 28% (from 27.1 to 34.7 kg ha(-1) y(-1)), while labile soil P decreased by 12% (from 24.7 to 21.6 kg ha(-1) y(-1)) under climate change, compared to historical weather. Summer precipitation explained 12% of total variation in future NO3-N losses. Combined, input and diversity explained 23% and 20% of variation in NO3-N losses and labile P, respectively. Cropping diversity was most significant, with reduced NO3-N leaching and labile P under climate change, accounting for 22% and 13% of total variation, respectively. Combined, RED inputs and DAG diversity reduced the impact of climate change on NO3-N losses and soil P and may provide a sustainable, adaptive solution for farming with regards to upcoming seasonal variations in temperature and precipitation. The scientific community, decision and policy makers will use this information to develop conceptual and practical farm- and field-scale technologies for producers, in order to adapt to the impact of climate change on agricultural production and the environment, with methodology which can be applied in Canada and other countries.

2021

10.1016/j.agwat.2021.106850

Dawkins, Laura C.; Bernie, Dan J.; Lowe, Jason A.; Economou, Theodoros

Assessing climate risk using ensembles: A novel framework for applying and extending open-source climate risk assessment platforms

CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT

Climate change adaptation decisions often require the consideration of risk rather than the envi-ronmental hazard alone. One approach for quantifying risk is to use a risk assessment framework which combines information about hazard, exposure and vulnerability to estimate risk in a spatially consistent way. In recent years, publicly available, open-source risk assessment frameworks have been made available, including the CLIMADA platform. Such tools are increasingly being used in combination with ensembles of climate model projections to quantify risk on climate time-scales, presenting the ensemble spread as a measure of climate model uncertainty. As climate models are computationally expensive to run, this quantification of uncertainty derived from the ensemble of projections is often limited by the number of members available. We present a novel framework involving the application and extension of the CLIMADA open-source climate risk assessment platform, demonstrating an approach for overcoming this limitation. We first show how the CLI-MADA platform can be applied to an ensemble of UKCP18 regional climate projections to assess climate risk coherently across space in an idealised example for the UK. We then show how a Generalised Additive Model, involving an 'ensemble member' random effect term, can be used to statistically represent the climate model ensemble summary of risk and be used to simulate many more realisations of risk, representative of a larger collection of plausible ensemble members. Specifically, we apply the framework to an idealised example related to heat-stress and the asso-ciated risk of reduced outdoor physical working capacity in the UK, based on three global warming levels (recent past, 2 degrees C and 4 degrees C warmer than pre-industrial). We show how, in this idealised example, in a 2 degrees C warmer world (relative to pre-industrial), the UK could lose on average 15 million (or 2.5% of) days of outdoor physical work in a working year (225 days) as a result of heat-stress, which could equate to more than 1.5 pound billion of economic loss (roughly 0.07% of UK annual GDP). The uncertainty quantification provided by the framework allows for an upper range estimate which better quantifies climate model uncertainty. In a 4 degrees C warmer world this indicates the plausibility of38 million (or 6.2% of) working days lost in a year, possibly equating to more than 3.8 pound billion of economic loss (roughly 0.17% of UK annual GDP). Finally, we discuss limitations of the approach and recommend a number of extensions and areas of future work.

2023

10.1016/j.crm.2023.100510

Bernzen, Amelie; Sohns, Franziska; Jia, Yuanyuan; Braun, Boris

Crop diversification as a household livelihood strategy under environmental stress. Factors contributing to the adoption of crop diversification in shrimp cultivation and agricultural crop farming zones of coastal Bangladesh

LAND USE POLICY

Environmental stressors, potentially aggravated by climate change, pose significant challenges to households whose livelihoods rely primarily on crop production in agriculture or aquaculture, particularly in countries of the Global South. In this context, diversified farming systems, or crop diversification, have been discussed as one adaptation strategy of smallholder farming households to reduce their livelihood vulnerability and increase farm resilience. In coastal Bangladesh, livelihoods based on cultivation of shrimp, prawn, fish, paddy (rice) and other crops are likely to become more vulnerable with accelerated sea level rise, extreme flooding events, cyclone activity, river bank erosion and salinization. While crop diversification in Bangladesh is still low overall, it has been increasing. To understand the factors driving the uptake of diversified cropping in different farming production contexts and allow for policy measures addressing regionally specific needs, we explore the (relative) impact and significance of relevant factors contributing to the adoption of crop diversification practices for (i) shrimp cultivation and (ii) agricultural crop farming zones. We specifically include variables representing subjectively perceived risks to study their role in climate change adaptation. Our findings are based on a quantitative household survey (n = 1188) in nine purposefully selected unions across the Bangaleshi part of the GangesBrahmaputra-Meghna delta to capture the diversity of the region. Our results show that the prevalence of crop diversification measures is relatively high in the shrimp cultivation zone, but relatively low in the agricultural crop farming regions. In sum, the results show that even though direct economic factors seem to be (still) more important for diversification decisions, our study also suggests that perceived environmental threats and changes can have a favourable influence on crop diversification and should hence be included in studies investigating causes for land use changes. Yet, there are significant differences with regard to the influence of specific factors on the likelihood to diversify in the two respective zones. We conclude that greater uptakes of agriculture and aquaculture diversification could represent a promising and more sustainable approach for smallholders in coastal Bangladesh given appropriate supportive institutional conditions and measures that address specific needs of local communities. A one-size-fits-all approach to pushing crop diversification is unlikely to produce adequate and sustainable results.

2023

10.1016/j.landusepol.2023.106796

Ghahramani, Afshin; Bowran, David

Transformative and systemic climate change adaptations in mixed crop livestock farming systems

AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS

Mixed crop-livestock farming systems provide food for more than half of the world's population. These agricultural systems are predicted to be vulnerable to climate change and therefore require transformative adaptations. In collaboration with farmers in the wheatbelt of Western Australia (WA), a range of systemic and transformative adaptation options, e.g. land use change, were designed for the modelled climate change projected to occur in 2030 (0.4-1.4 degrees increase in mean temperature). The effectiveness of the adaptation options was evaluated using coupled crop and livestock biophysical models within an economic and environmental framework at both the enterprise and farm scales. The relative changes in economic return and environmental variables in 2030 are presented in comparison with a baseline period (1970-2010). The analysis was performed on representative farm systems across a rainfall transect. Under the impact of projected climate change, the economic returns of the current farms without adaptation declined by between 2 and 47%, with a few exceptions where profit increased by up to 4%. When the adaptations were applied for 2030, profit increased at the high rainfall site in the range between 78 and 81% through a 25% increase in the size of livestock enterprise and adjustment in sowing dates, but such profit increases were associated with 6-10% increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. At the medium rainfall site, a 100% increase in stocking rate resulted in 5% growth in profit but with a 61-71% increase in GHG emissions and the increased likelihood of soil degradation. At the relatively low rainfall site, a 75% increase in livestock when associated with changes in crop management resulted in greater profitability and a smaller risk of soil erosion. This research identified that a shift toward a greater livestock enterprises (stocking rate and pasture area) could be a profitable and low-risk approach and may have most relevance in years with extremely low rainfall. If transformative adaptations are adopted then there will be an increased requirement for an emissions control policy due to livestock GHG emissions, while there would be also need for soil conservation strategies to be implemented during dry periods. The adoption rate analysis with producers suggests there would be a greater adoption rate for less intensified adaptations even if they are transformative. Overall the current systems would be more resilient with the adaptations, but there may be challenges in terms of environmental sustainability and in particular with soil conservation.

2018

10.1016/j.agsy.2018.04.011

Tirado, M. C.; Crahay, P.; Mahy, L.; Zanev, C.; Neira, M.; Msangi, S.; Brown, R.; Scaramella, C.; Coitinho, D. Costa; Mueller, A.

Climate change and nutrition: Creating a climate for nutrition security

FOOD AND NUTRITION BULLETIN

Background: Climate change further exacerbates the enormous existing burden of undernutrition. It affects food and nutrition security and undermines current efforts to reduce hunger and promote nutrition. Undernutrition in turn undermines climate resilience and the coping strategies of vulnerable populations. Objectives: The objectives of this paper are to identify and undertake a cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the existing mechanisms, strategies, and policies to address them. Methods: A cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the mechanisms and policies to address them was guided by an analytical framework focused on the three 'underlying causes' of undernutrition: 1) household food access, 2) maternal and child care and feeding practices, 3) environmental health and health access. The analytical framework includes the interactions of the three underlying causes of undernutrition with climate change,vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation. Results: Within broad efforts on climate change mitigation and adaptation and climate-resilient development, a combination of nutrition-sensitive adaptation and mitigation measures, climate-resilient and nutrition-sensitive agricultural development, social protection, improved maternal and child care and health, nutrition-sensitive risk reduction and management, community development measures, nutrition-smart investments, increased policy coherence, and institutional and cross-sectoral collaboration are proposed as a means to address the impacts of climate change to food and nutrition security. This paper proposes policy directions to address nutrition in the climate change agenda and recommendations for consideration by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Conclusions: Nutrition and health stakeholders need to be engaged in key climate change adaptation and mitigation initiatives, including science-based assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and policies and actions formulated by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Improved multi-sectoral coordination and political will is required to integrate nutrition-sensitive actions into climate-resilient sustainable development efforts in the UNFCCC work and in the post 2015 development agenda. Placing human rights at the center of strategies to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change and international solidarity is essential to advance sustainable development and to create a climate for nutrition security.

2013

10.1177/156482651303400415

Chen, Yu; Yang, Jiyuan; Wang, Ying; Qi, Jing; Luan, Qingzu

The impact on climate change perception and adaptation of smallholder concepts: Evidence from a sugarcane community, China

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT REVIEW

Asia and Africa have large groups of smallholder farmers. They are the main body of the adaptation to climate change in regional agriculture. Because of small management scale and weak accumulating capacity, smallholder farmers generally lack the ability to resist natural disasters and adapt to climate change. Understanding what factors impact on smallholders' perception of and adaptation to climate change are critical to appropriate adaptation strategies to reduce damage. This study analyzed how individual, environmental factors and barriers affected the perception of and adaptation to climate change on Chinese sugarcane smallholders in the higher level of productivity and the traditional smallholder environment. We systematically collected data on smallholders' characteristics and climate change adaptation through questionnaires and household surveys from 750 sugarcane smallholders in five national key support counties in Guangxi, China. The results showed that the level of Chinese sugarcane smallholders' perception and adaptation was relatively poor. Only 69.9% of the sugarcane smallholders perceived climate change, and 42.0% of them had consciously adopted adaptation measures. The developments of productivity and agricultural technology in China could not improve the smallholders' climate change perception and adaptation. The Heckman two-stage model results showed that the groups of sugarcane smallholders with poor terrain, non-Yao households, younger ages, smaller household sizes, higher household education levels and no migrant workers were better able to perceive climate change. Young-aged sugarcane smallholders with rich planting experiences were more likely to adopt adaptive measures. Inter-villager communication was the main channel for sugarcane smallholders to perceive and adapt to climate change, and the positive correlation coefficients reached 0.247 and 0.225, respectively. Trapped in Chinese traditional smallholder concept, sugarcane smallholders in Guangxi lacked the willingness to actively adapt to climate change. Even if productivity and agricultural technologies were developed, information, technical and financial barriers of smallholder adaptation to climate change had remained. Therefore, it is believed that the local government and well-adapted sugarcane smallholders should play the main role and improve participation degree, to stimulate the enthusiasm of sugarcane smallholders in China to adapt to climate change. The results of this study have references for other regions where smallholders are widely distributed in Asia and Africa.

2023

10.1016/j.eiar.2023.107213

Thissen, Paul

ESTATE LANDSCAPES IN GELDERLAND. GOVERNMENT INTERVENTIONS, PAST AND PRESENT

BULLETIN KNOB

The Province of Gelderland has long boasted a large number of country houses and landed estates, which over time coalesced into estate landscapes around the historical capitals of the Duchy of Guelders quarters of Nijmegen, Arnhem and Zutphen. Rapidly increasing urbanization from the end of the nineteenth century onwards threatened the coherence and accessibility of these landscapes. Gelderland's largest cities, Arnhem and Nijmegen, watched in dismay as many country houses and landed estates fell victim to subdivision and development. In response they started to buy up portions of that estate landscape to ensure that they would remain available to city dwellers. In addition, the `safety net' provided by newly established nature and landscape organizations, in particular Natuurmonumenten and Geldersch Landschap & Kas-teelen, also contributed to preservation and permanent accessibility by offering landed families the opportunity to keep their estate intact, albeit no longer under their ownership. Similar motives - the need to preserve attractive, accessible walking areas for the increasingly urbanized society - underpinned the government's introduction of the Nature Conservation Act in 1928. The Act was invoked more frequently in Gelderland than in any other province. It promoted the opening up of private properties as well as the preservation of the cultural value of the kind of 'natural beauty' to be found on landed estates. After the Second World War, in addition to resorting to the Nature Conservation Act, the owners of country houses and landed estates could avail themselves of an increasing variety of grants aimed at preserving (publicly accessible) nature, landscape and heritage, although the emphasis was firmly on nature. Estate landscapes like the Veluwezoom and the County of Zutphen were eventually safeguarded by a patchwork of different government regulations. In the twenty-first century, government policy shifted towards providing financial support for both public and private contributions to nature, landscape and heritage by country houses and landed estates. This in turn has stimulated interest in estate landscapes. Instead of individual heritage-listed estates, the focus is now on areas with multiple country house and landed estates where there are spatial tasks waiting to be fulfilled: not just the preservation of natural beauty for outdoor recreation, but also spatial articulation, climate change adaptation, increased biodiversity and sustainable agriculture. Interest in design, both past and present, has burgeoned thanks to this development.

2021

Zhao, Junfang; Guo, Jianping

Multidecadal changes in moisture condition during climatic growing period of crops in Northeast China

PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH

Investigating the spatiotemporal dynamics of agricultural water status during crop growth season can provide scientific evidences for more efficient use of water resources and sustainable development of agricultural production under climate change. In this study, the following were used to evaluate the multidecadal changes in moisture condition during climatic growth period of crops in Northeast China from 1961 to 2010: (1) the daily climate variables gathered from 101 meteorological stations in Northeast China for 1961-2010; (2) FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) Penman-Monteith equation; (3) 80% guaranteed probability for agro-climatic indicators; and (4) the daily average temperature stably passing 0 degrees C, which is the threshold temperature of climatic growth period for crops. Reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) and relative moisture index were further calculated. The results showed that Northeast China's climate in the main agricultural areas over the past 50 years was warmer and drier in general, with a growing range and intensity of drought. From 1961 to 2010, when the daily average temperature stably passed 0 degrees C, the average annual total precipitation (P) and ET with 80% guaranteed probability in Northeast China both emerged as decreasing trends with averages of 555.0 mm and 993.7 mm, respectively. However, the decline in P was greater than that of annual total ET0. As a result, the annual relative moisture indices sharply decreased with an average of -0.44, mostly fluctuating from -0.59 to -0.25. As far as spatial distributions were concerned, the inter-regional reductions in P and relative moisture index over the past 50 years were conspicuous, especially in some agricultural areas of central Heilong,jiang Province, northeastern Jilin Province and northeastern Liaoning Province. On the contrary, ET obviously increased in some agricultural areas of central and northwestern Heilongjiang Province (eg. Qiqiha'er, Shuangyashan, Hegang, Suihua, etc.), and northeastern Jilin Province (eg. Baicheng). This indicated that drought existed and was unfavorable for crop growth and development, especially during the period of 2001-2010. This finding revealed that drought was still one of the most important agricultural meteorological disasters in Northeast China. Some countermeasures should be formulated to adapt to climate change. Our findings have important implications for improving climate change impact studies, for breeding scientists to breed higher yielding cultivars, and for agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change.

2015

10.1016/j.pce.2015.07.011

Odgaard, Mette Vestergaard; Turner, Katrine Grace; Bocher, Peder K.; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Dalgaard, Tommy

A multi-criteria, ecosystem-service value method used to assess catchment suitability for potential wetland reconstruction in Denmark

ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS

Wetlands provide a range of ecosystem services such as drought resistance, flood resistance, nutrient deposition, biodiversity, etc. This study presents a new multi-criteria, ecosystems service value-driven method to drive the optimal placement of restored wetlands in terms of maximizing selected ecosystem services which a wetland can provide or affect. We aim to answer two questions: 1) which of the ecosystem services indicators defines the placement of wetlands today? 2) Based on the ecosystem services indicator assessment, what are the recommendations for future selection of catchments for potential wetland reconstruction (i.e. restoration)? Five key ecosystem services indicators produced or affected by wetlands in Denmark were mapped (recreational potential, biodiversity, nitrogen mitigation potential, inverse land rent, and flash-flood risk). These services were compared to current placements of wetlands. Furthermore, scenario testing and hotspot analysis were combined to provide future recommendations for optimal placements of wetlands. The scenarios investigated were Climate Adaptation and Protection of Aquatic Environment, Land-Based Economy, and Rich Nature. Based on these scenarios, the most suitable areas for wetland reconstruction were mapped, taking both the scenarios and attached weightings of ecosystem services indicators into account. According to statistical results current reconstructed wetlands are situated in catchments with lower biodiversity, higher nitrogen mitigation potential, higher land rent (i.e. agricultural intensive areas), and to some extent higher flash flood risk compared to the median of catchments with wetlands. Hence, recreation potential, high biodiversity, and low land rent has not been prioritized. 35 out of the 3023 catchments investigated were identified with an especially high suitability when optimizing all scenarios. This coincides with a high suitability around peri-urban and urban areas and near natural areas, hence capturing both supply and demand services. Of the 35 identified catchments with potentially high suitability, only 2 actually hold a presently reconstructed wetland. This indicates a prior placement with almost no consideration of maximizing ecosystem services benefits. We recommend a systematic approach, such as the ecosystem service value-driven method demonstrated in the present case study, to target more services and improve the overall benefit from wetlands. This approach seeks to inform decision makers of synergies in the landscape, which is likely to transcend future policy implementations.

2017

10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.12.001

Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kriegler, Elmar; Edmonds, Jae; O'Neill, Brian C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Bauer, Nico; Calvin, Katherine; Dellink, Rob; Fricko, Oliver; Lutz, Wolfgang; Popp, Alexander; Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo; Samir, K. C.; Leimbach, Marian; Jiang, Leiwen; Kram, Tom; Rao, Shilpa; Emmerling, Johannes; Ebi, Kristie; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Humpenoeder, Florian; da Silva, Lara Aleluia; Smith, Steve; Stehfest, Elke; Bosetti, Valentina; Eom, Jiyong; Gernaat, David; Masui, Toshihiko; Rogelj, Joeri; Strefler, Jessica; Drouet, Laurent; Krey, Volker; Luderer, Gunnar; Harmsen, Mathijs; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Baumstark, Lavinia; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Kainuma, Mikiko; Klimont, Zbigniew; Marangoni, Giacomo; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Obersteiner, Michael; Tabeau, Andrzej; Tavoni, Massimo

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS

This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400-1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO(2) to more than 120 GtCO(2) per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m(2) that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 degrees C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).

2017

10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009

Arifah; Salman, Darmawan; Yassi, Amir; Demmallino, Eymal Bahsar

Knowledge flow analysis of knowledge co-production-based climate change adaptation for lowland rice farmers in Bulukumba Regency, Indonesia

REGIONAL SUSTAINABILITY

To increase the resilience of farmers' livelihood systems, detailed knowledge of adaptation strategies for dealing with the impacts of climate change is required. Knowledge co-production approach is an adaptation strategy that is considered appropriate in the context of the increasing frequency of disasters caused by climate change. Previous research of knowledge coproduction on climate change adaptation in Indonesia is insufficient, particularly at local level, so we examined the flow of climate change adaptation knowledge in the knowledge co-production process through climate field school (CFS) activities in this study. We interviewed 120 people living in Bulukumba Regency, South Sulawesi Province, Indonesia, involving 12 crowds including male and female farmers participated in CFS and not participated in CFS, local government officials, agriculture extension workers, agricultural traders, farmers' family members and neighbors, etc. In brief, the 12 groups of people mainly include two categories of people, i.e., people involved in CFS activities and outside CFS. We applied descriptive method and Social Network Analysis (SNA) to determine how knowledge flow in the community network and which groups of actors are important for knowledge flow. The findings of this study reveal that participants in CFS activities convey the knowledge they acquired formally (i.e., from TV, radio, government, etc.) and informally (i.e., from market, friends, relatives, etc.) to other actors, especially to their families and neighbors. The results also show that the acquisition and sharing of knowledge facilitate the flow of climate change adaptation knowledge based on knowledge co-operation. In addition, the findings highlight the key role of actors in the knowledge transfer process, and key actors involved in disseminating information about climate change adaptation. To be specific, among all the actors, family member and neighbor of CFS actor are the most common actors in disseminating climate knowledge information and closest to other actors in the network; agricultural trader and family member of CFS actor collaborate most with other actors in the community network; and farmers participated in CFS, including those heads of farmer groups, agricultural extension workers, and local government officials are more willing to contact with other actors in the network. To facilitate the flow of knowledge on climate change adaptation, CFS activities should be conducted regularly and CFS models that fit the situation of farmers' vulnerability to climate change should be developed.

2023

10.1016/j.regsus.2023.05.005

Gbako, Shekwoyemi; Paraskevadakis, Dimitrios; Ren, Jun; Wang, Jin; Radmilovic, Zoran

A systematic literature review of technological developments and challenges for inland waterways freight transport in intermodal supply chain management

BENCHMARKING-AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL

PurposeInland shipping has been extensively recognised as a sustainable, efficient and good alternative to rail and road modes of transportation. In recent years, various authorities and academic researchers have advocated shifting from road to other sustainable modes like inland waterway transport (IWT) or rail transport. Academic work on modernisation and technological innovations to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of waterborne transportation is becoming apparent as a growing body of literature caused by the need to achieve a sustainable transport system. Thus, it became apparent to explore the research trends on IWT.Design/methodology/approachA systematic and structured literature review study was employed in this paper to identify the challenges and concepts in modernising inland waterways for freight transportation. The review analysed 94 articles published in 54 journals from six well-known databases between 2010 and 2022.FindingsThe key findings of this review are that despite various challenges confronting the sector, there have been successful cases of technological advancement in the industry. The main interest among scholars is improving technical and economic performance, digitalisation, and safety and environmental issues. The review revealed that most of the literature is fragmented despite growing interest from practitioners and academic scholars. Academic research to address the strategic objectives, including strengthening competitiveness (shipbuilding, hydrodynamics, incorporating artificial intelligence into the decision-making process, adopting blockchain technology to ensure transparency and security in the transactions, new technologies for fleets adaptation to climate change, more effective handling, maintenance and rehabilitation technologies), matching growth and changing trade patterns (intermodal solutions and new logistics approaches) are major causes of concerns.Originality/valueBy employing the approach of reviewing previously available literature on IWT review papers, this review complements the existing body of literature in the field of IWT by providing in a single paper a consolidation of recent state-of-the-art research on technological developments and challenges for inland waterways freight transport in the intermodal supply chain that can act as a single resource to keep researchers up to date with the most recent advancements in research in the domain of inland waterway freight transport. Additionally, this review identified gaps in the literature that may inspire new research themes in the field of IWT.

2024

10.1108/BIJ-03-2023-0164

Zhang, Boen; Wang, Shuo; Zscheischler, Jakob; Moradkhani, Hamid

Higher Exposure of Poorer People to Emerging Weather Whiplash in a Warmer World

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

The emergence of abrupt shift from drought to downpour has attracted widespread attention in recent years, with particularly disastrous consequences in low-income regions. However, the spatiotemporal evolution and poverty exposure to such drought-to-downpour events remain poorly understood. Here, we investigate the connection between poverty and drought-to-downpour events based on three data products and climate models on a global scale. We find that the drought-to-downpour events increased by 24%-48% in the poorest 20% of the world's population from 1980 to 2010. The drought-to-downpour events do not appear to be occurring more frequently in most regions globally, just affecting regions with higher poverty rates more frequently, especially in African countries. The exposure inequality remains under future socioeconomic pathways, with a nearly fivefold increase in the exposure for the poorer populations. Poverty exposure to more frequent drought-to-downpour events demands greater support for climate adaptation in low-income countries to reduce poverty and inequality. Many regions have suffered greatly from recent occurrences of abrupt shift from drought to downpour, suggesting that the emerging threat is a global challenge. Such drought-to-downpour events pose challenges to water infrastructures in developed countries, let alone those poor countries with limited adaptation capacity and resources. However, the connection between the drought-to-downpour events and poverty incidence remains poorly understood. Here, we show that such drought-to-downpour events experienced by the poorest 20% of the world's population increased significantly by 24%-48% from 1980 to 2010. Such a significant increase, however, is not observed for the remaining wealthiest 80%. The drought-to-downpour events do not appear to be occurring more frequently in most global regions, just affecting regions with higher poverty rates more frequently, especially in African countries. Climate projections show that such inequality would remain in a warming climate. Our results highlight the urgency to provide greater support for climate adaptation in low-income countries to reduce poverty and inequality. The connection between poverty incidence and drought-to-downpour weather whiplashes is uncovered on a global scaleThe drought-to-downpour events increased by 24%-48% in the poorest 20% of the world's population from 1980 to 2010The drought-to-downpour events do not appear to be occurring more frequently in most global regions, just affecting regions with higher poverty rates more frequently

2023

10.1029/2023GL105640

Ziervogel, Gina; Enqvist, Johan; Metelerkamp, Luke; van Breda, John

Supporting transformative climate adaptation: community-level capacity building and knowledge co-creation in South Africa

CLIMATE POLICY

Calls for transformative adaptation to climate change require attention to the type of capacity building that can support it. Community-level capacity building can help to ensure ownership and legitimacy of longer-term interventions. Given that marginalized communities are highly vulnerable to climate risk, it is important to build their capacity to adapt locally and to integrate their perspectives into higher-level adaptation measures. Current adaptation policy does not pay sufficient attention to this. Using a Cape Town-based project on water governance in low-income urban settlements, this paper explores how a transdisciplinary research project supported capacity building. Our findings suggest that knowledge co-creation at the community level is central to the capacity building that is needed in order to inform transformative adaptation. The collaborative methodology used is also important; we illustrate how a transdisciplinary approach can contribute to transformative adaptation where knowledge is co-produced to empower community-level actors and organizations to assert their perspectives with greater confidence and legitimacy. We argue that if capacity building processes shift from the top-down transferal of existing knowledge to the co-creation of contextual understandings, they have the potential to deliver more transformative adaptation. By considering diverse sources of knowledge and knowledge systems, capacity building can start to confront inequalities and shift dominant power dynamics. Adaptation policy could provide more guidance and support for community-level transdisciplinary processes that can enable this type of transformative adaptation. Key policy insights To address equity and justice issues as well as climate risk, adaptation policy needs to better support transformative adaptation. Community-level capacity building, called for by developing countries, will benefit from more attention to bottom-up approaches as a complement to top-down ones. Community-led research that draws on a diversity of knowledge systems can effectively inform the development of transformative adaptation interventions. Transdisciplinary research methods present a promising pedagogical approach to building transformative adaptation capacity. Adaptation policy for capacity building would benefit from a broader understanding of governance that includes local participation and values bottom-up contributions. A priority for capacity building is getting previously excluded actors a spot at the negotiating table as well as skills to substantiate their arguments.

2022

10.1080/14693062.2020.1863180

Henderson, Benjamin; Cacho, Oscar; Thornton, Philip; van Wijk, Mark; Herrero, Mario

The economic potential of residue management and fertilizer use to address climate change impacts on mixed smallholder farmers in Burkina Faso

AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS

There are large yield gaps in the mixed smallholder farming systems of Africa, with limited opportunities to sustainably increase productivity and adapt to climate change. In this study, the ex-ante potential of residue retention and fertilization measures to meet this challenge is assessed using a positive mathematical programming (PMP) model. This micro-economic model captures decision making at the farm level for a sample population in Northern Burkina Faso for the 2010 to 2045 simulation period. In contrast to previous studies of mixed farms in this area, we model each individual farm in the sample population, instead of one or a small number of representative farms. We are therefore able identify groups of farms for which each measure is profitable, applied either individually or as a combined package. This approach also enables simulation of the economic impacts from indiscriminate applications of the measures or smart applications which are restricted to the farms that profit from the measures. Our findings are aligned with other studies showing that residue retention causes trade-offs between crop and livestock production, while fertilization can synergistically raise returns to both production activities. The annual profit losses from the middle of the road RCP6 trajectory of climate change assumed in this study were estimated to reach 15% by 2045. The smart package of measures increased aggregate profit the most, although not by nearly enough to claw back the losses from climate change. The fertilizer measures were the next most profitable, with indiscriminately applied residue retention being the only measure to reduce aggregate profit relative to this climate change baseline. Importantly, the measures that are the most profitable at the aggregate level are not necessarily those that would be the most widely adopted. For example, residue retention is profitable for a larger share of the sample population than fertilization. The advantage of the population scale analysis used in this study is that it prevents measures such as residue retention, which can benefit a significant share of farms, from being disregarded by practitioners because they appear to be unprofitable at the aggregate level or when viewed through the lens of an average representative farm. Finally, amidst the growing emphasis of studies on the benefits of packages compared to individual measures, the findings from this study are more equivocal about this choice, suggesting that extension programs should have the flexibility to apply measures individually or as a package.

2018

10.1016/j.agsy.2018.09.012

Fleming, RA; Barclay, HJ; Candau, JN

Scaling-up an autoregressive time-series model (of spruce budworm population dynamics) changes its qualitative behavior

ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

The emergence of issues such as climate change has motivated the development of time-dependent models to forecast how plant and animal populations will react over large spatial extents. Usually the best data available for constructing such models comes from intensive, detailed field studies. Models, thus implicitly developed at the fine spatial resolution of experimental studies, are then scaled-up to coarser resolution for management decision-making. Typically, this process of scaling-up involves merely adapting the models computer code for data input so that it will accept the large scale spatial averages (often derived from relatively remote (e.g. aerial) sensing) that form the basis for management planning. Unfortunately, such scaling-up can inadvertently affect model predictions and dynamical behavior. Improper incorporation of data collected at multiple resolutions during model development and use, and misinterpretation of model output can result. The consequences of scaling-up a linear, second-order, autoregressive. time series model of spruce budworm population dynamics on the model's predictions and on the interpretation of the model's output are considered. Such time series models have been proposed as templates for incorporating outbreak dynamics in the decision systems supporting forest insect management that tire currently being adapted to climatic change problems. Analysis of the underlying deterministic component of the time series model showed that: (1) parameter estimates changed with the spatial resolution-parameter values estimated from time series data consisting of large area averages were negatively correlated (r = -0.931, P<0.0005) and as much as 40 or 50 times greater in absolute value than the parameters generating the fine resolution data from sampling sites 1600 times smaller in extent. (2) Even the qualitative nature of the dynamics appeared to change in response to scaling-up. The long cycle, converging oscillations generated at fine resolutions gave way to five additional types of qualitative behavior at coarser resolutions including various types of divergent behavior and non-oscillating behavior. (3) The amount of distortion involved in scaling-up depends on the model's degree of non-linearity and on the fine scale spatial variation in population densities. An approach to correcting for such distortion is outlined. The potential consequences of scaling-up deserve consideration whenever data measured at different spatial resolutions are integrated during model development. as often happens in climate change research.

2002

10.1016/S0304-3800(01)00519-1

Janarthanan, Balaji Sedithippa

Saving farm subsidies with smart climate interventions: the case of transition to a millet-based agriculture

CHINA AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIC REVIEW

PurposeThe study attempts to estimate farm subsidies the governments can save by transitioning to a millet-based production system, replacing GHG emission-intensive crops.Design/methodology/approachIt updates a 131 x 131 commodity input-output (IO) table of the year 2015-16 into 2021-22 using the RAS procedure and simulates the economy-wide impacts of replacing rice and wheat with pearl millet and sorghum using consumption and production approaches. It then quantifies fertilizer, electricity and credit subsidy expenses the government can save through this intervention. It also estimates the potential reduction in GHG emissions that the transition could bring about. India is taken as a case.FindingsResults show pearl millet expansion brings greater benefits to the government. It is estimated that when households return to their pearl millet consumption rates that prevailed in the early-reform period, this could save the Indian government Rs. 622 crores (USD 75 m). The savings shall be reinvested in agriculture to finance climate adaptation/mitigation efforts, contributing to a sustainable food system. Net GHG emissions also decline by 3.3-3.6 MMT CO2e.Practical implicationsIndian government has been actively aiming to bring down paddy areas since 2013-14 through the Crop Diversification Program and promoting millets (and pulses and oilseeds) on these farms. The prime reason is to check rapidly declining groundwater irrigation in Green Revolution states. Regulations in the past in these states have not brought the intended results. Meanwhile, electricity and fertilizers are heavily subsidized for agriculture. A slight shift in the cropping system can help conserve these resources. Meanwhile, GHG emissions could also be brought down and subsidies could well be saved. The results of the study indicate the same.Social implicationsA less warm society is what governments and nongovernment organizations across the world are aiming for at present. Financial implications affect actions against climate change to a greater extent, apart from technological innovations. The effects of policy strategies discussed in the study, taking a large country as a case, when implemented appropriately around the regions, could help move a step closer to action against climate change.Originality/valueThe paper addresses a key but rarely explored research issue - that how a climate-sensitive crop choice will help reduce the government's fiscal burden to finance climate adaption/mitigation. It also offers a mechanism to estimate the benefits within an economy-wide framework.

2024

10.1108/CAER-05-2023-0129

Cuevas, Sining C.; Peterson, Ann; Morrison, Tiffany; Robinson, Catherine

Methodology for examining the challenges in mainstreaming climate change adaptation

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGIES AND MANAGEMENT

Purpose - This paper aims to contribute to adaptation research by devising a systematic method for examining the challenges in mainstreaming climate change adaptation (CCA) into local land use planning. It argues that mainstreaming operationalization necessitates a methodology that focuses on the challenges in applying the approach and an analytical framework that can examine the mainstreaming process from an institutional perspective. Design/methodology/approach - This paper applied triangulation by data method (i.e. document review, interview, survey and key informant consultations) and incorporated the scorecard approach in developing the four-stage mixed methodology. It used a modified Institutional Analysis and Development framework as primary analytical guide and applied the case study methodology for structure and focus in relation to data collection activities. Findings - This paper devised the four-stage mixed methodology and successfully applied it in examining the challenges in mainstreaming CCA into local land use planning in Albay, Philippines. Using the methodology, this paper developed 20 quantitative mainstreaming indicators and generated qualitative analyses to assess the state of play of the challenges in local mainstreaming of CCA. Results suggest that mainstreaming challenges exist within a certain spectrum, with one end composed of barriers to, and the other, opportunities for CCA. Furthermore, the challenges occur at varying degrees of severity depending on the conditions that surround them. Research limitations/implications - This paper is limited to illustrating the process involved in developing the four-stage mixed methodology and presents only a brief discussion of the quantitative and qualitative results. Practical implications - Although the methodology is at its initial stages of development, it generated results that can help analysts, planners and decision-makers: determine the nature of the challenges in mainstreaming CCA, thereby understand the mainstreaming process; prioritize the mainstreaming challenges to address; and design strategies that will maximize the use of limited resources (i.e. utilizing the opportunities to overcome the existing barriers), among others. Originality/value - The four-stage mixed methodology was developed to aid analysts, planners and decision-makers determine the state-of-play of the challenges in mainstreaming CCA and make informed decisions in overcoming these challenges. Thus, the mixed method can be a useful tool in advancing the operationalization of the mainstreaming approach.

2016

10.1108/IJCCSM-07-2015-0091

Wendling, Laura A.; Huovila, Aapo; Castell-Rudenhausen, Malin Zu; Hukkalainen, Mari; Airaksinen, Miimu

Benchmarking Nature-Based Solution and Smart City Assessment Schemes Against the Sustainable Development Goal Indicator Framework

FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE

Increasing global urbanization yields substantial potential for enhanced sustainability through careful management of urban development and optimized resource use efficiency. Nature-based solutions (NBS) can provide a means for cities to successfully navigate the water-energy-climate relationship, thus enhancing urban resilience. Implementation of NBS can improve local or regional economic resilience underpinned by the sustainable use of natural resources. The innovative governance, institutional, business, and finance models and frameworks inherent to NBS implementation also provide a wealth of opportunity for social transformation and increased social inclusiveness in cities. The ultimate benefit of NBS implementation in cities is increased livability, which is typically measured as a function of multiple social, economic and environmental variables. Given the range of different interventions classified as NBS and the cross-sectoral character of their co-benefits, different assessment schemes can be used to evaluate NBS performance and impact. Herein, performance and impact indicators within three robust NBS- and Smart City-related assessment schemes-Mapping and Assessment of Ecosystems and their Services (MAES), Knowledge and Learning Mechanism on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (EKLIPSE), and Smart City Performance Measurement Framework (CITYkeys)-were critically analyzed with respect to Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 11, Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable. Each selected assessment scheme was benchmarked with respect to the Inter-Agency Expert Group on SDG Indicators' global indicator framework for the sub-objectives of SDG 11. The alignment between each of the selected NBS assessment schemes and the SDG indicator framework was mapped with particular emphasis on consistency with city-level framework indicators for each SDG 11 sub-objective. The results were illustrated as composite scores describing the alignment of the analyzed NBS and Smart city assessment schemes with the SDG 11 sub-objectives. These results facilitate NBS assessment scheme selection based on alignment between each analyzed assessment scheme and specific SDG 11 sub-objectives. Cities face multiple challenges amidst a complex hierarchy of legislative, regulatory and other stakeholder obligations. The present study showed that strategic selection of an NBS assessment scheme which closely aligns with one or more sub-objectives within SDG 11 canmaximize operational efficiency by exploiting synergies between evaluation schemes.

2018

10.3389/fenvs.2018.00069

Bellini, Edoardo; Martin, Raphael; Argenti, Giovanni; Stagliano, Nicolina; Costafreda-Aumedes, Sergi; Dibari, Camilla; Moriondo, Marco; Bellocchi, Gianni

Opportunities for Adaptation to Climate Change of Extensively Grazed Pastures in the Central Apennines (Italy)

LAND

Future climate change is expected to significantly alter the growth of vegetation in grassland systems, in terms of length of the growing season, forage production, and climate-altering gas emissions. The main objective of this work was, therefore, to simulate the future impacts of foreseen climate change in the context of two pastoral systems in the central Italian Apennines and test different adaptation strategies to cope with these changes. The PaSim simulation model was, therefore, used for this purpose. After calibration by comparison with observed data of aboveground biomass (AGB) and leaf area index (LAI), simulations were able to produce various future outputs, such as length of growing season, AGB, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, for two time windows (i.e., 2011-2040 and 2041-2070) using 14 global climate models (GCMs) for the generation of future climate data, according to RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios under business-as-usual management (BaU). As a result of increasing temperatures, the fertilizing effect of CO2, and a similar trend in water content between present and future, simulations showed a lengthening of the season (i.e., mean increase: +8.5 and 14 days under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, for the period 2011-2040, +19 and 31.5 days under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, for the period 2041-2070) and a rise in forage production (i.e., mean biomass peak increase of the two test sites under BaU: +53.7% and 62.75% for RCP4.5. and RCP8.5, respectively, in the 2011-2040 period, +115.3% and 176.9% in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in 2041-2070, respectively,). Subsequently, three different alternative management strategies were tested: a 20% rise in animal stocking rate (+20 GI), a 15% increase in grazing length (+15 GL), and a combination of these two management factors (+20 GI x 15 GL). Simulation results on alternative management strategies suggest that the favorable conditions for forage production could support the increase in animal stocking rate and grazing length of alternative management strategies (i.e., +20 GI, +15 GL, +20 GI x 15 GL). Under future projections, net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and nitrogen oxide (N2O) emissions decreased, whereas methane (CH4) rose. The simulated GHG future changes varied in magnitude according to the different adaptation strategies tested. The development and assessment of adaptation strategies for extensive pastures of the Central Apennines provide a basis for appropriate agricultural policy and optimal land management in response to the ongoing climate change.

2023

10.3390/land12020351

Tumbo, Siza D.; Mwalukasa, Nicholaus; Fue, Kadeghe G.; Mlozi, Malongo R. S.; Haug, Ruth; Sanga, Camilius A.

Exploring Information Seeking Behavior of Farmers' in Information Related to Climate Change Adaptation Through ICT (CHAI)

INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF RESEARCH IN OPEN AND DISTRIBUTED LEARNING

In Tanzania, agriculture sector is known for employing more than 70% of the total population. Agriculture sector faces many challenges including climate change. Climate change causes low productivity in agriculture; low productivity is caused due to poor implementation of agricultural policies and strategies. This poor implementation of policies has also caused many farmers to be not competent in climate change adaptation. Over the years, provisions of agricultural advice and extension were provided by various approaches, including training and visit extension, participatory approaches, and farmers' field schools. However, provision of agricultural advisory and extension service is inefficient. Also, in most cases the usage of most agricultural innovations and technologies developed is limited. A literature review indicates that the main reasons given by Tanzanian farmers for not using improved technology are not lack of knowledge or skill, but rather that the technologies do not contribute towards improvements (e.g., the technologies are not profitable or they imply to high risk). Thus, agricultural extension service needs to be geared towards teaching farmers how to develop innovative and cost effective technologies that are contextualized. Limited numbers of agricultural extension staff and less interactivity of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs), such as radio and television, have been mentioned to be among the factors limiting the provision of agricultural advisory and extension services to the majority of farmers in Tanzania. The advancements in ICTs have brought new opportunities for enhancing access to agricultural advisory and extension service for climate change adaptation. In Tanzania, farmers and other actors access agricultural information from various sources such as agricultural extension workers and use of various databases from Internet Services Providers. Also there are different web - and mobile - based farmers' advisory information systems to support conventional agricultural extension service. These systems are producing bulk amounts of data which makes it difficult for different stakeholders to make an informed decision after data analysis. This calls for the need to develop a tool for data visualization in order to understand hidden patterns from massive data. In this study, a semi-automated text classification was developed to determine the frequently asked keywords from a web and mobile based farmers' advisory system called UshauriKilimo after being in use for more than 2 years by more than 700 farmers.

2018

Ali, Shahzad; Basit, Abdul; Umair, Muhammad; Makanda, Tyan Alice; Shaik, Mohammed Rafi; Ibrahim, Mohammad; Ni, Jian

The Role of Climate Change and Its Sensitivity on Long-Term Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Vegetation and Drought Changing Trends over East Asia

PLANTS-BASEL

Droughts have become more severe and frequent due to global warming. In this context, it is widely accepted that for drought assessments, both water supply (rainfall) and demand (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, SPEI) should be considered. Using SPEI, we explored the spatial-temporal patterns of dry and wet annual and seasonal changes in five sub-regions of East Asia during 1902-2018. These factors are linked to excess drought frequency and severity on the regional scale, and their effect on vegetation remains an important topic for climate change studies. Our results show that the SPEI significantly improved extreme drought and mostly affected the SPEI-06 and SPEI-12 growing seasons in East Asia during 1981-2018. The dry and wet annual SPEI trends mostly affect the five sub-regions of East Asia. The annual SPEI had two extremely dry spells during 1936-1947 and 1978-2018. Japan, South Korea, and North Korea are wet in the summer compared to other regions of East Asia, with drought frequency occurring at 51.4%, respectively. The mean drought frequencies in China and Mongolia are 57.4% and 54.6%. China and Mongolia are the driest regions in East Asia due to high drought frequency and duration. The spatial seasonal analysis of solar radiation (SR), water vapor pressure (WVP), wind speed (WS), vegetation condition index (VCI), temperature condition index (TCI), and vegetation health index (VHI) have confirmed that the East Asia region suffered from maximum drought events. The seasonal variation of SPEI shows no clear drying trends during summer and autumn seasons. During the winter and spring seasons, there was a dry trend in East Asia region. During 1902-1990, a seasonal SPEI presented diverse characteristics, with clear wet trends in Japan, Mongolia, and North Korea in four different growing seasons, with dry trends in China and South Korea. During 1991-2018, seasonal SPEI presented clear dry trends in Japan, Mongolia, and North Korea in different growing seasons, while China and South Korea showed a wet trend during the spring, autumn, and winter seasons. This ecological and climatic mechanism provides a good basis for the assessment of vegetation and drought-change variations within East Asia. An understandings of long-term vegetation trends and the effects of rainfall and SPEI on droughts of varying severity is essential for water resource management and climate change adaptation. Based on the results, water resources will increase under global warming, which may alleviate the water scarcity issue in the East Asia region.

2024

10.3390/plants13030399

Egerer, Sabine; Cotera, Rodrigo Valencia; Celliers, Louis; Costa, Maria Manez

A leverage points analysis of a qualitative system dynamics model for climate change adaptation in agriculture

AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS

Context: Participatory modeling approaches provide opportunities for collective action responding to challenges of community resource limitations. In the context of climate change, challenges arise from the potential limitations of water availability and resulting conflicts within the agricultural sector. Northeast Lower Saxony is the region with the highest irrigation intensity in Germany due to the sandy soils with low water holding capacity, the cultivation of crops with high water demand, and a negative climatic water balance during the summer months. Water resources will become more limited as a consequence of climate change. Simultaneously, the irrigation demand will most likely increase due to intensified crop cultivation. Objective: Responding to these challenges, we developed a novel method to identify leverage points for effective climate change adaptation measures. We applied this method to analyze opportunities for climate change adaptation within the agricultural sector in Northeast Lower Saxony. Furthermore, we assessed the potential of stakeholders to implement adaptation measures that correspond to the identified leverage points on different time scales. Methods: Our leverage point analysis is based on a qualitative system dynamics model that was developed within a participatory modeling framework. We analyzed parameters, feedback loops, and typical system archetypes within the model. Leverage points that were related to the design and the intent of the model emerged during the iterative model building process. Subsequently, we introduced a rating system to evaluate the potential of each leverage point to be successful as a climate change adaptation measure. We provide a point-by-point analysis of the potential of key stakeholders to implement adaptation measures. Results and conclusions: The leverage points analysis was applied to the case study of Northeast Lower Saxony. It revealed that collective action is needed to cope with these challenges. Decision-makers should provide financial incentives to increase water retention in the region. Farmers will have to improve irrigation efficiency and technology for crop production. Increased societal awareness of climate change-related water shortages has the potential to direct the system towards more sustainable water use and consumption patterns. Significance: Our novel and structured approach is an attempt to analyze complex socio-economic systems. It supports mediating water resource conflicts between various stakeholders to facilitate collective action for adaptive planning.

2021

10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103052

Thomson, AM; Izaurralde, RC; Rosenberg, NJ; He, XX

Climate change impacts on agriculture and soil carbon sequestration potential in the Huang-Hai Plain of China

AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT

For thousands of years, the Huang-Hai Plain in northeast China has been one of the most productive agricultural regions of the country. The future of this region will be determined in large part by how global climatic changes impact regional conditions and by actions taken to mitigate or adapt to climate change impacts. One potential mitigation strategy is to promote management practices that have the potential to sequester carbon in the soils. The IPCC estimates that 40 Pg of C could be sequestered in cropland soils worldwide over the next several decades; however, changes in global climate may impact this potential. Here, we assess the potential for soil C sequestration with conversion of a conventional till (CT) continuous wheat system to a wheat-corn double cropping system and by implementing no till (NT) management for both continuous wheat and wheat-corn systems. To assess the influence of these management practices under a changing climate, we use two climate change scenarios (A2 and B2) at two time periods in the EPIC agro-ecosystent simulation model. The applied climate change scenarios are from the HadCM3 global climate model for the periods 2015-2045 and 2070-2099 which projects consistent increases in temperature and precipitation of greater than 5 degrees C and up to 300 mm by 2099. An increase in the variability of temperature is also projected and is, accordingly, applied in the simulations. The EPIC model indicates that winter wheat yields would increase on average by 0.2 Mg ha(-1) in the earlier period and by 0.8 Mg ha(-1) in the later period due to warmer nighttime temperatures and higher precipitation. Simulated yields were not significantly affected by imposed changes in crop management. Simulated soil organic C content was higher under both NT management and double cropping than under CT continuous wheat. The simulated changes in management were a more important factor in SOC changes than the scenario of climate change. Soil C sequestration rates for continuous wheat systems were increased by an average of 0.4 Mg ha(-1) year(-1) by NT in the earlier period and by 0.2 Mg ha(-1) year(-1) in the later period. With wheat-corn double cropping, NT increased sequestration rates by 0.8 and 0.4 Mg ha(-1) year(-1) for the earlier and later periods, respectively. The total C offset due to a shift from CT to NT under continuous wheat over 16 million hectares in the Huang-Hai Plain is projected to reach 240 Tg C in the earlier period and 180 Tg C in the later period. Corresponding C offsets for wheat-corn cropping are 675-495 Tg C.

2006

10.1016/j.agee.2005.11.001

Henseke, Aisa; Breuste, Juergen H.

Climate-Change Sensitive Residential Areas and Their Adaptation Capacities by Urban Green Changes: Case Study of Linz, Austria

JOURNAL OF URBAN PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT

As summer air temperatures continue to increase, urban areas will be most affected since urban building structures and materials intensify the heat island effect. The number of people who will be affected by increasing temperatures will rise, especially those in the heat-sensitive group of elderly people. Urban planning departments have to develop adaptation strategies in order to limit negative effects of climate change on their citizens. Due to their climatic ecosystem services, urban green areas can play an important role in this process. Since the effects of climate change can vary in different urban areas, a study was conducted focusing on identification of residential areas most affected by climate change according to surface cover structure and demographic characteristics in the City of Linz, Austria by using satellite images and demographic data. Residential areas with low vegetation cover and a high number of risk group members are identified as climate-change sensitive residential areas (CCSRA). About half of the residential areas of Linz and nearly two thirds of the population of Linz live in these areas. With selected representatives of these CCSRAs, the greening potential was identified and climate adaptive strategies developed. A survey carried out in selected CCSRAs showed a high appreciation for urban green areas (83.3 to 86.7 percent) by the inhabitants but a very low trust (35.0 to 56.7 percent) in their ability to contribute to the reduction of thermal load. Most residents would support an increase of different types of urban greenery in their residential areas (e.g., 76.7 to 91.7 percent would support an increase in lawns); at the same time, there is a high rejection of unsealing measures (e.g., 38.9 to 57.5 percent reject a lower number of parking lots). Greening measures, which would not require a change of surface structures such as facade greening, are the least accepted greening measures (38.9 to 57.5 percent reject this possibility). In the opinion of most inhabitants, residents should decide on the green structure of their residential areas (69.4 and 76.7 percent), while only a minority would approve of the involvement of urban planners (40.0 to 43.3 percent) or experts and scientists (16.7 to 30.0 percent) in this process. The results show an informational and educational deficit on the subject of climate change impact at a local level. The greening potential in CCSRAs is still not sufficiently valued by decision-makers and inhabitants, and adaptation strategies in the urban development of the areas are lacking.

2015

10.1061/(ASCE)UP.1943-5444.0000262

De Toni, Andrea; Vizzarri, Matteo; Di Febbraro, Mirko; Lasserre, Bruno; Noguera, Joan; Di Martino, Paolo

Aligning Inner Peripheries with rural development in Italy: Territorial evidence to support policy contextualization

LAND USE POLICY

Inner Peripheries is a recent concept based on both peripherality and marginality features, thus far from the commonly adopted geographical notion of periphery. Inner Peripheries are fragile territories covering rural Europe, which suffer from depopulation, low economic potential, and weak territorial cohesion. However, these territories are extremely important for the provision of goods and services, and the stewardship of natural and semi-natural environments. Such dichotomous condition poses several challenges for planning in the EU context, particularly regarding the implementation of the Rural Development Policy. Therefore, current planning needs to contextualize the policy implementation by considering local needs and territorial resources in the Inner Peripheries. With a focus on the Italian case, the main aim of the present work is to explore to what extent Inner Peripheries cope with Rural Development targets, in the light of improving the effectiveness of planning interventions. We create and implement a set of context indicators to describe the Inner Peripheries' territorial characteristics through fine scale analyses and test their alignment with the Rural Development Policy through ANOVA and PCA. The results show that the indicators' set is significant and robust in depicting the current territorial potentialities and limitations of the Inner Peripheries towards strengthening rural development. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the Inner Peripheries exhibit alignments and misalignments with rural development targets, depending on localities, and exogenous and endogenous characteristics. We find that the Inner Peripheries in Italy need to develop holistic strategies incorporating different Rural Development Priorities, such as increased competitiveness in agriculture and forestry sectors, sustainable use of resources and climate adaptation, which may also contribute to foster territorial cohesion. We argue that strategies with less consideration of environmental and social aspects may be counterproductive for the local development in Inner Peripheries. Performing an ex-ante assessment of the main characteristics of the Inner Peripheries through e.g. the use of the indicators' framework as proposed, may support the decision-making processes in selecting planning priorities. Considering the large replicability and comparability of the indicators' set, the findings of the present study are useful to further understand how rural development is considered in territorial strategies for Inner Peripheries in similar contexts in Europe.

2021

10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104899

Bates, Lorraine E.; Green, Melissa; Leonard, Rosemary; Walker, Iain

The Influence of Forums and Multilevel Governance on the Climate Adaptation Practices of Australian Organizations

ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY

To date, there are few regulations and policies relating to climate change in Australia. Uncertainty about the timing, structure, and potential impact of proposed legislation such as a national carbon abatement scheme, is leading to planning delays across the country. To assist with these policy uncertainties, organizations can embed themselves in multilevel governance frameworks that inform, structure, and facilitate strategic development, planning, and action. As part of these networks, organizational representatives also engage in formal and informal forums, a type of interorganizational relationship, which can include industry task forces, policy development committees, interagency groups, and specific climate change committees. Forums constitute an additional level of governance that influences decision making. The patterns of relationships within these multilevel governance frameworks are examined in this paper, with a focus on the forum level of organizational cooperation. Specifically, we investigate the type of forums operating and their role in supporting organizational responses to climate change. A series of interviews and focus groups were conducted in two study areas, the Swan Canning region of Western Australia and the Hunter / Central Coast region of New South Wales. The results indicate that organizations participate in a diverse range of forums. Further, forums appear to play a key role in the everyday business of organizations by enhancing their ability to plan and address a range of issues, including those associated with climate change. In addition the research highlights some of the barriers and drivers for the development and implementation of climate adaptation practices that emerge from forum discussions. For example, a lack of government guidance in interpreting climate change policy was described as a barrier yet access to the knowledge and expertise of participants was highlighted as a potential driver. The paper discusses how an ability to create new forums and utilize existing nonclimate related forums assists organizations in addressing climate change impacts. We contend that forums constitute a level of governance deeply embedded in organizational practice that influences both their capacity and motivation to undertake climate adaptation. Our findings suggest that research investigating the rules that govern forums and the structural properties of the networks in which they are embedded is required to further understand the role of multilevel governance in shaping organizational responses to climate change.

2013

10.5751/ES-06120-180462

Mills, Anthony J.; Tan, Diwen; Manji, Atifa K.; Vijitpan, Tatirose; Henriette, Elvina; Murugaiyan, Pugazhendhi; Pantha, Ram H.; Lafdal, Mohamed Y.; Soule, Ahmedou; Cazzetta, Silvia; Begat, Pierre; Vlieghe, Kelly E. P.; Lavirotte, Lucy; Kok, Johannes T.; Lister, James

Ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change: Lessons learned from a pioneering project spanning Mauritania, Nepal, the Seychelles, and China

PLANTS PEOPLE PLANET

Societal Impact StatementEcosystem-based adaptation (EbA) is increasingly being used to reduce the impacts of climate change on vulnerable people and landscapes. The international EbA South project implemented EbA interventions across three countries (Mauritania, Nepal, the Seychelles), piloting the restoration of mountain, desert and coastal ecosystems to enhance the climate resilience of local communities. The experiences of the EbA South project across these distinct ecosystems and socio-economic environments provide unique insights into the adaptive management invariably required within EbA initiatives. This analysis also provides lessons on how to share knowledge among different stakeholders and countries to advance South-South cooperation. SummaryClimate change is having an increasingly negative impact on the world's most vulnerable societies. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) uses biodiversity and ecosystem services to help local communities adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change. This approach, which has the potential to be implemented across a wide range of ecosystem types and scales, is increasingly being adopted by governments and international donors within climate change adaptation initiatives. The objective of the EbA South project was to enhance the climate resilience of communities in Mauritania, Nepal, and the Seychelles by building institutional capacity, mobilizing knowledge and transferring EbA technologies based on China's experience in successfully implementing restoration. The project implemented EbA interventions in the drylands of Mauritania, Himalayan forests in Nepal, and the coastal zone of the Seychelles. All interventions were carefully monitored by researchers to generate scientific evidence of the impacts of EbA. Here, we provide implementers of EbA with the major lessons learned from the EbA South project, namely: (a) quantifying the full suite of ecosystem goods and services generated through EbA at a landscape scale; (b) budgeting in advance for management of time-consuming complexities related to socioeconomics and ecology such as land-use conflict, ineffective government structures, disagreements regarding intervention options, and challenging environmental conditions; (c) undertaking long-term research for adaptive management and documenting the project's successes; (d) providing platforms for effective communication and collaboration among stakeholders with different first languages; and (e) regularly adjusting exit strategies for maintenance of the EbA landscapes after closure of the project.

2020

10.1002/ppp3.10126

Hernandez, E. Annette; Uddameri, Venkatesh

Standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI)-based drought assessment in semi-arid south Texas

ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES

The coastal semi-arid region of south Texas is known for its erratic climate that fluctuates between long periods of drought and extremely wet hurricane-induced storms. The standard precipitation index (SPI) and the standard precipitation evaporation index (SPEI) were used in this study in conjunction with precipitation and temperature projections from two general circulation models (GCMs), namely, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Parallel Climate Model (PCM) and the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre model (HCM) for two emission scenarios-A1B (similar to 720 ppm CO2 stabilization) and B1 (similar to 550 ppm CO2 stabilization) at six major urban centers of south Texas spanning five climatic zones. Both the models predict a progressively increasing aridity of the region throughout the twenty-first century. The SPI exhibits greater variability in the available moisture during the first half of the twenty-first century while the SPEI depicts a downward trend caused by increasing temperature. However, droughts during the latter half of the twenty-first century are due to both increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation. These results suggest that droughts during the first half of the twenty-first century are likely caused by meteorological demands (temperature or potential evapotranspiration (PET) controlled), while those during the latter half are likely to be more critical as they curtail moisture supply to the region over large periods of time (precipitation and PET controlled). The drought effects are more pronounced for the A1B scenario than the B1 scenario and while spatial patterns are not always consistent, the effects are generally felt more strongly in the hinterlands than in coastal areas. The projected increased warming of the region, along with potential decreases in precipitation, points toward increased reliance on groundwater resources which are noted to be a buffer against droughts. However, there is a need for human adaptation to climate change, a greater commitment to groundwater conservation and development of large-scale regional aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) facilities that are capable of long-term storage in order to sustain groundwater availability. Groundwater resource managers and planners must confront the possibility of an increased potential for prolonged (multi-year) droughts and develop innovative strategies that effectively integrate water augmentation technologies and conservation-oriented policies to ensure the sustainability of aquifer resources well into the next century.

2014

10.1007/s12665-013-2897-7

Siyao, Peter Onauphoo; Sanga, Evaristo Eliakim

Breaking barriers in accessing and uptaking climate change adaptation information by smallholder tomato farmers in Tanzania

GLOBAL KNOWLEDGE MEMORY AND COMMUNICATION

PurposeThis study aims to assess barriers in accessing and uptaking climate change adaptation information among smallholder tomato farmers in Tanzania.Design/methodology/approachThis study was conducted in Iringa and Morogoro regions, Tanzania. It adopted cross-sectional research design. Multistage, purposive and random sampling techniques with a sample size of 183 smallholder tomato farmers were used. Questionnaires containing closed- and open-ended questions, interview guide and focus group discussions were used to collect data. To ensure validity and reliability of data collection instruments, pretesting of the questionnaires was conducted by administering them to a small group of smallholder tomato growers. Statistical Product and Service Solutions software was used to analyse quantitative data while NVivo was used for analysing qualitative data.FindingsLack of clear understanding of climate change information (132, 72.1%), scarcity of libraries and information centres (125, 68.3%), inadequate income (125, 68.3%), lack of trust of sources of information (114, 62.3%), lack of sufficient knowledge about climate change (111, 60%), illiteracy (110, 60.1%), poor distribution of electricity in rural areas (109, 59.6%) and use of jargons (93, 50.8%) in explaining climate change adaptation issues are hindrances for smallholder tomato farmers to access and uptake climate change adaptation information.Research limitations/implicationsThis study was conducted in only two districts in Tanzania; thus, the findings cannot be generalized.Practical implicationsThe government and relevant agencies are recommended to use appropriate strategies for breaking the barriers that impede easy access and uptake of climate change adaptation information by smallholder tomato farmers as one of the interventions to combat the impacts posed by climate change.Social implicationsThis study has contributed to the ongoing discourses on climate change issues. Such discourses have influenced attention and understanding of the role of access and uptake of climate change adaptation information by smallholder farmers for planning and implementation of adaptation strategies through awareness creation.Originality/valueThis study is in line with goal number 13.3 of Sustainable Development Goals, which vows on taking necessary actions in combating climate change and its impacts. Thus, smallholder tomato farmers' awareness about climate change through access and uptake of climate change adaptation information is one of the interventions to combat climate change and its impacts.

2024

10.1108/GKMC-05-2023-0155

Rahman, Md. Sadique; Zulfiqar, Farhad; Ullah, Hayat; Himanshu, Sushil K.; Datta, Avishek

Farmers' perceptions, determinants of adoption, and impact on food security: case of climate change adaptation measures in coastal Bangladesh

CLIMATE POLICY

Coastal households in Bangladesh are exposed to a variety of extreme climate events, which represent a major threat to food security. However, there is a dearth of empirical research on the adoption and impact of climate change (CC) adaptation measures on food security. Using cross-sectional data from 750 households, this study investigates farmers' perceptions of CC, the drivers of adaptation measures, and the impact on the household food security in coastal areas of Bangladesh. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, multivariate probit, and propensity score matching. According to the findings, most respondents believed that CC is occurring. Climate change adaptation measures were classified into six categories. Borrowing and selling of assets, as well as off-farm labour employment, were used as adaptation measures by more than 85% of the households. Crop farming-related adaptation measure was used by around 47% of the households. Among the explanatory factors, cultivable land area, farming experience, access to climate information, yearly income, and location of households had a significant role in the choice to use adaptation measures. The findings suggested that agriculture-based adaptation measures, such as a change in crop farming technique, significantly reduced food insecurity, whereas off-farm labour employment, as well as borrowing and selling of assets, increased it (as measured on the household food insecurity access scale [HFIAS]). This analysis suggests that government and non-governmental organizations operating in coastal communities may want to prioritize actions to increase understanding and access to climate information amongst farmers and other households. Policies that are location-specific and specific to farmers' needs must also be developed to fully reap the benefits of adaptation measures. Key policy insightsFuture measures should focus on increasing coastal households' capabilities and enhancing their understanding and access to climate information.Adaptation measures, such as borrowing and selling assets, increase household food insecurity. Therefore, adoption of agriculture-based adaptation measures should be emphasized in coastal region's development policies.Greater attention should be paid to the exposed coastal areas, where the implementation of adaptation measures is found to be lower than in the interior coastal areas.Creating permanent off-farm employment opportunities as opposed to temporary off-farm work may also aid in adapting to climate change while also contributing to food security.

2023

10.1080/14693062.2023.2212638

Ahmed, Iftekhar

Considerations and principles for conducting a participatory capacity and vulnerability analysis (PCVA) for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RESILIENCE IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT

Purpose While there are many such toolkits on community-based participatory methods, the key considerations and principles of conducting a participatory capacity and vulnerability analysis (PCVA) are less covered, yet they are central to the effective conduct of a PCVA, the reason why this paper focuses on such issues. Design/methodology/approach This paper is derived from a toolkit that was produced for Oxfam Australia. Disasters and climate change are major drivers of poverty and significantly affect the communities that development programs of Oxfam Australia aim to assist. Recognising the importance of building its organisational capacity to address these risks, Oxfam Australia initiated and commissioned the production of a PCVA toolkit to support disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation programs; the production of the toolkit was led by the author. The methodology of producing the toolkit consisted of discussions with experts and a review of similar toolkits. Findings Details of the PCVA process and how to conduct one in a community setting are provided including PCVA concepts, briefing, logistics and management and principles of working with communities. Importantly, the different stages of conducting a PCVA are explained, and some selected tools are presented as illustrative examples. In conclusion, the importance of the PCVA considerations and principles are reaffirmed vis-a-vis the sensitivity and soft skills required in a low-income developing country setting. Originality/value The participatory development approach, which the toolkit follows, has been widely advocated for the past few decades and most non-governmental organisations involved in community development espouse this approach. Consequently, a wide range of participatory development toolkits have been developed, many of which relate to disasters and climate change. The PCVA toolkit discussed in this paper draws on the repertoire of toolkits already available and used over a long time. Nonetheless, effort was given to assembling a range of tools that were most suitable for the purpose of this particular PCVA toolkit. Instead of focussing on the tools, which are available from the freely downloadable toolkit and available in the public domain, in this paper, the PCVA process and its main principles are explained, and the key considerations to carry out an effective PCVA is discussed. Perhaps even more than the actual tools, these considerations and an understanding of the PCVA principles are significant because they underpin the utilisation of the toolkit.

2021

10.1108/IJDRBE-05-2020-0043

Kucher, Lesia; Drokin, Serhii; Ulko, Yevhenii

ECOLOGICAL-ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY OF IRRIGATION PROJECTS IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

AGRICULTURAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMICS-INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC E-JOURNAL

Purpose. The purpose of the paper is to present the results of research on the assessing of the ecological-economic efficiency of the implementation of reclamation projects taking into account the quality of irrigation water (on an example of the specific projects under soil-and-climatic conditions of Kharkiv and Donetsk regions). Methodology / approach. The research methodology is based on the use of an interdisciplinary approach. The study used the following methods: monographic (to generalize methodological and practical experience in the use of irrigation projects); laboratory-analytical (to determine the quality indicators of irrigation water); constructive-calculated (for calculating the indicators of economic efficiency of yield growth under irrigation conditions); Monte Carlo method (for simulation of crop yields without irrigation and under irrigation conditions); statistical (analysis of variance) (to assess the reliability of the results); generalizations (to summarize the intermediate and general results of ecological-economic analysis of experimental and model data). Results. As a result of laboratory analysis, water quality was assessed, which can be used for irrigation. The advantages of the project of organization of agricultural production under the conditions of drip irrigation are substantiated, and the investment attractiveness of this project was estimated. It is proved that the use of drip irrigation contributes not only to the economic effect, but also to adaptation to climate change. The economic efficiency of irrigation in agriculture, in particular, limited to suitable water (low quality) during the cultivation of various crops, was evaluated. Given the economic assessment, the cultivation of most crops under irrigated conditions with limited suitable water is ineffective. Originality / scientific novelty. The scientific novelty of the paper is that the provisions on ecological and economic efficiency of reclamation projects taking into account the quality of irrigation water has been further developed. This is one of the first paper devoted to the economic management of irrigation projects in Ukrainian agriculture in the context of climate change. Practical value / implications. The results of the study allow to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of the implementation of drip irrigation projects, taking into account potential economic risks and expected benefits. The results of simulation modeling of crop yields under irrigation conditions can be used by agricultural enterprises to manage project risks.

2020

van der Plank, Sien; Addo, Kwasi Appeaning; Anderson, Romario; Boruff, Bryan; Bruce, Eleanor; Chambers, Kishna; Duncan, John; Davies, Kevin; Escoffery, Damoi; Fidai, Yanna; Fletcher, Darren; Hickey, Sharyn; Jayson-Quashigah, Philip-Neri; Maxam, Ava; Pauli, Natasha; Schlenker, Marie; Sowah, Winnie Naa Adjorkor; Dash, Jadu

The 'More Than Maps' framework for building research capacity among young people in coastal climate change adaptation

AREA

When young people engage with climate change education, they are often left feeling disempowered and daunted. But past research has shown that there are ways to design and deliver climate change education that can be empowering and enabling. The delivery of climate change education was further challenged in 2020 by the shift to online learning driven by the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. However, the challenges of the pandemic context also offered an opportunity to engage new audiences and establish new collaborations in climate change education. In this paper, we explore how the shift to online research, collaboration and education can also be harnessed to develop interdisciplinary coastal adaptation training for young people interested in better understanding the complexities of our coastal environments. The resulting 'More than Maps' framework draws on qualitative and quantitative data collected over a two-year programme focused on the design and delivery of an international climate change research capacity building workshop series, across the United Kingdom, Ghana, Jamaica and Australia. Carried out by an interdisciplinary team of early career researchers and established academics, 15 workshops were developed on coastal adaptation research methods, targeting a range of 'young' audiences who are and will continue to be impacted by climate change. Building on reflections from the workshops' design and delivery, we developed a scalable framework to aid researchers in sharing open-access, replicable methods for studying climate change mitigation and adaptation. This work demonstrates that our workshop participants had increased confidence, sought to apply learned methods to other contexts, and wanted to share this knowledge with others. We conclude that the COVID-19 online workspace facilitated rather than hindered the international collaboration and delivery of these coastal adaptation research methods workshops, and we provide best practice tips to researchers delivering climate change education. When young people engage with climate change education, they are often left feeling disempowered and daunted. The delivery of climate change education was further challenged in 2020 by the shift to online learning driven by the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. We conclude that the COVID-19 online workspace facilitated rather than hindered the international collaboration and delivery of coastal adaptation research methods workshops, and we provide a best practice framework for developing science skills-based capacity building resources.image

2024

10.1111/area.12919

Luitel, Dol Raj; Jha, Pramod K.; Siwakoti, Mohan; Shrestha, Madan Lall; Munniappan, Rangaswamy

Climatic Trends in Different Bioclimatic Zones in the Chitwan Annapurna Landscape, Nepal

CLIMATE

The Chitwan Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) is the central part of the Himalayas and covers all bioclimatic zones with major endemism of flora, unique agro-biodiversity, environmental, cultural and socio-economic importance. Not much is known about temperature and precipitation trends along the different bioclimatic zones nor how changes in these parameters might impact the whole natural process, including biodiversity and ecosystems, in the CHAL. Analysis of daily temperature and precipitation time series data (1970-2019) was carried out in seven bioclimatic zones extending from lowland Terai to the higher Himalayas. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was applied to determine the trends, which were quantified by Sen's slope. Annual and decade interval average temperature, precipitation trends, and lapse rate were analyzed in each bioclimatic zone. In the seven bioclimatic zones, precipitation showed a mixed pattern of decreasing and increasing trends (four bioclimatic zones showed a decreasing and three bioclimatic zones an increasing trend). Precipitation did not show any particular trend at decade intervals but the pattern of rainfall decreases after 2000AD. The average annual temperature at different bioclimatic zones clearly indicates that temperature at higher elevations is increasing significantly more than at lower elevations. In lower tropical bioclimatic zone (LTBZ), upper tropical bioclimatic zone (UTBZ), lower subtropical bioclimatic zone (LSBZ), upper subtropical bioclimatic zone (USBZ), and temperate bioclimatic zone (TBZ), the average temperature increased by 0.022, 0.030, 0.036, 0.042 and 0.051 degrees C/year, respectively. The decade level temperature scenario revealed that the hottest decade was from 1999-2009 and average decade level increases of temperature at different bioclimatic zones ranges from 0.2 to 0.27 degrees C /decade. The average temperature and precipitation was found clearly different from one bioclimatic zone to other. This is the first time that bioclimatic zone level precipitation and temperature trends have been analyzed for the CHAL. The rate of additional temperature rise at higher altitudes compared to lower elevations meets the requirements to mitigate climate change in different bioclimatic zones in a different ways. This information would be fundamental to safeguarding vulnerable communities, ecosystem and relevant climate-sensitive sectors from the impact of climate change through formulation of sector-wise climate change adaptation strategies and improving the livelihood of rural communities.

2020

10.3390/cli8110136

Li, Ming; Zhang, Yi; Yang, Yongsheng; Wang, Tongxin; Wu, Chu; Zhang, Xiujuan

Prediction of Historical, Current, and Future Configuration of Tibetan Medicinal Herb Gymnadenia orchidis Based on the Optimized MaxEnt in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

PLANTS-BASEL

Climate change plays a pivotal role in shaping the shifting patterns of plant distribution, and gaining insights into how medicinal plants in the plateau region adapt to climate change will be instrumental in safeguarding the rich biodiversity of the highlands. Gymnosia orchidis Lindl. (G. orchidis) is a valuable Tibetan medicinal resource with significant medicinal, ecological, and economic value. However, the growth of G. orchidis is severely constrained by stringent natural conditions, leading to a drastic decline in its resources. Therefore, it is crucial to study the suitable habitat areas of G. orchidis to facilitate future artificial cultivation and maintain ecological balance. In this study, we investigated the suitable zones of G. orchidis based on 79 occurrence points in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and 23 major environmental variables, including climate, topography, and soil type. We employed the Maximum Entropy model (MaxEnt) to simulate and predict the spatial distribution and configuration changes in G. orchidis during different time periods, including the last interglacial (LIG), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Mid-Holocene (MH), the present, and future scenarios (2041-2060 and 2061-2080) under three different climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). Our results indicated that annual precipitation (Bio12, 613-2466 mm) and mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11, -5.8-8.5 degrees C) were the primary factors influencing the suitable habitat of G. orchidis, with a cumulative contribution of 78.5%. The precipitation and temperature during the driest season had the most significant overall impact. Under current climate conditions, the suitable areas of G. orchidis covered approximately 63.72 x 104/km2, encompassing Yunnan, Gansu, Sichuan, and parts of Xizang provinces, with the highest suitability observed in the Hengduan, Yunlin, and Himalayan mountain regions. In the past, the suitable area of G. orchidis experienced significant changes during the Mid-Holocene, including variations in the total area and centroid migration direction. In future scenarios, the suitable habitat of G. orchidis is projected to expand significantly under SSP370 (30.33-46.19%), followed by SSP585 (1.41-22.3%), while contraction is expected under SSP126. Moreover, the centroids of suitable areas exhibited multidirectional movement, with the most extensive displacement observed under SSP585 (100.38 km2). This study provides a theoretical foundation for the conservation of biodiversity and endangered medicinal plants in the QTP.

2024

10.3390/plants13050645

Arbuckle, J. G.; Tyndall, J. C.; Morton, L. W.; Hobbs, J.

Climate change typologies and audience segmentation among Corn Belt farmers

JOURNAL OF SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION

Development of natural resource user typologies has been viewed as a potentially effective means of improving the effectiveness of natural resource management engagement strategies. Prior research on Corn Belt farmers' perspectives on climate change employed a latent class analysis (LCA) that created a six-class typology-the Concerned, Uneasy, Uncertain, Unconcerned, Confident, and Detached-to develop a better understanding of farmer perspectives on climate change and inform more effective climate adaptation and mitigation outreach strategies. The LCA employed 34 variables that are generally unobservable- beliefs about climate change, experience with extreme weather, perceived risks of climate change, and attitudes toward climate action-to identify types. The research reported in this paper builds on this typology of Corn Belt farmers by exploring 33 measures of observable farm enterprise characteristics, land management practices, and farmer demographics to assess whether variations in these observable characteristics between the six farmer classes display systematic patterns that might be sufficiently distinctive to guide audience segmentation strategies. While analyses detected some statistically significant differences, there were few systematic, meaningful observable patterns of difference between groups of farmers with differing perspectives on climate change. In other words, farmers who believe that anthropogenic climate change is occurring, that it poses risks to agriculture, and that adaptive action should be taken, may look very much like farmers who deny the existence of climate change and do not support action. The overall implication of this finding is that climate change engagement efforts by Extension and other agricultural advisors should use caution when looking to observable characteristics to facilitate audience segmentation. Additional analyses indicated that the farmer types that tended to be more concerned about climate change and supportive of adaptive action (e.g., Concerned and Uneasy) reported that they were more influenced by key private and public sector actors in agricultural social networks. On the other hand, farmers who were not concerned about climate change or supportive of adaptation (e. g., the Unconcerned, Confident, and Detached groups, comprising between one-third and one-half of respondents) were less integrated into agricultural networks. This suggests that Extension and other agricultural advisors should expand outreach efforts to farmers who are not already within their spheres of influence.

2017

10.2489/jswc.72.3.205

D'Amato, Anthony W.; Bradford, John B.; Fraver, Shawn; Palik, Brian J.

Forest management for mitigation and adaptation to climate change: Insights from long-term silviculture experiments

FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

Developing management strategies for addressing global climate change has become an increasingly important issue influencing forest management around the globe. Currently, management approaches are being proposed that intend to (1) mitigate climate change by enhancing forest carbon stores and (2) foster adaptation by maintaining compositionally and structurally complex forests. However, little is known about the compatibility of these two objectives or the long-term efficacy of a given management regime at simultaneously achieving adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, we examined stand-level carbon and complexity responses using five long-term (> 50 yrs) silviculture experiments within the upper Great Lakes region, USA. In particular, live tree carbon stores and sequestration rates, and compositional and structural complexity were analyzed from three thinning experiments in Pinus resinosa and two selection method experiments in northern hardwood systems to elucidate the long-term effects of management on these ecosystem attributes and the general compatibility of mitigation and adaptation objectives. As expected, we observed a general increase in large tree densities with stand age and positive relationships between stand stocking level and live tree carbon stores. More importantly, our results clearly identify tradeoffs between the achievement of mitigation and adaptation objectives across each study. For example, maintaining higher stocking levels (i.e., enhanced mitigation by increasing carbon stores) resulted in decreases in stand-level structural and compositional complexity (i.e., reduced adaptation potential). In addition, rates of live tree carbon increment were also the lowest within the highest stocking levels; despite the benefits of these stand conditions to maximizing carbon stores. Collectively, these findings underscore the importance of avoiding rigid adherence to a single objective, such as maximum on-site carbon stores, without recognizing potential consequences to other ecosystem components crucial to ensuring long-term ecosystem functioning within the context of environmental change. One potential stand-level strategy for balancing these goals may be to employ multi-aged management systems, such as irregular shelterwood and selection systems, that maintain a large proportion of carbon stores in retained mature trees while using thinning to create spatial heterogeneity that promotes higher sequestration rates in smaller, younger trees and simultaneously enhances structural and compositional complexity.

2011

10.1016/j.foreco.2011.05.014

Kearl, Zachary; Vogel, Jason

Urban extreme heat, climate change, and saving lives: Lessons from Washington state

URBAN CLIMATE

Heat waves are becoming more common and intense around the world as a result of climate change, and they are affecting the resilience and livability of cities. Extreme heat can be fatal for people who are unacclimated or unable to seek relief. Heat-related illnesses and deaths are largely preventable, yet public health efforts can at times fail to account for important contextual factors in their policy responses (e.g., differential vulnerability due to pre-existing medical conditions, where people live or work, or people's self-perception of risk). Understanding these contextual factors is an essential foundation for identifying policy responses that can make tangible progress in reducing heat-related illnesses and saving lives during extreme heat events. While extreme heat is an issue faced by communities internationally, we contend that a state or region-specific contextual and problem-oriented policy analysis, such as we present here, is critical to saving lives because: (1) many of the factors driving extreme heat vulnerability are local in nature and (2) the resilience strategies best suited to improve public health outcomes generally rely on local and state policy. This article examines the key factors conditioning public health impacts of extreme heat in Washington state based on the framework of sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. Drawing upon our analysis of heat vulnerability in Washington state, we examine a suite of policy options within the context of Washington's communities that are tailored to mitigate, prepare for, respond to, or recover from heat waves and reduce heat-related illness and death in urban or suburban settings. We find extreme heat affects subpopulations differentially because of various contextual factors; this suggests a wide range of policy alternatives is necessary to meaningfully improve health outcomes community wide. Moreover, the array of policy alterna-tives often rely on agencies whose missions do not prioritize public health. We conclude that without mechanisms for formal coordination among implementing partners and agencies with an important role in protecting public health, important policy alternatives that serve vulnerable subpopulations will likely be neglected. We present this problem-oriented analysis of extreme heat in Washington state as a case study for identifying and evaluating contextually specific climate resilience strategies in the hopes that it can be useful across other geographies with different governance contexts, and perhaps even for other climate impacts.

2023

10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101392

Zoelch, Teresa; Henze, Lisa; Keilholz, Patrick; Pauleit, Stephan

Regulating urban surface runoff through nature-based solutions - An assessment at the micro-scale

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH

' Urban development leads to changes of surface cover that disrupt the hydrological cycle in cities. In particular, impermeable surfaces and the removal of vegetation reduce the ability to intercept, store and infiltrate rainwater. Consequently, the volume of stormwater runoff and the risk of local flooding rises. This is further amplified by the anticipated effects of climate change leading to an increased frequency and intensity of heavy rain events. Hence, urban adaptation strategies are required to mitigate those impacts. A nature-based solution, more and more promoted in politics and academia, is urban green infrastructure as it contributes to the resilience of urban ecosystems by providing services to maintain or restore hydrological functions. However, this poses a challenge to urban planners in deciding upon effective adaptation measures as they often lack information on the performance of green infrastructure to moderate surface runoff. It remains unclear what type of green infrastructure (e.g. trees, green roofs), offers the highest potential to reduce discharge volumes and to what extent. Against this background, this study provides an approach to gather quantitative evidence on green infrastructure's regulation potential. We use a micro-scale scenario modelling approach of different variations of green cover under current and future climatic conditions. The scenarios are modelled with MIKE SHE, an integrated hydrological simulation tool, and applied to a high density residential area of perimeter blocks in Munich, Germany. The results reveal that both trees and green roofs increase water storage capacities and hence reduce surface runoff, although the main contribution of trees lies in increasing interception and evapotranspiration, whereas green roofs allow for more retention through water storage in their substrate. With increasing precipitation intensities as projected under climate change their regulating potential decreases due to limited water storage capacities. The performance of both types stays limited to a maximum reduction of 2.4% compared to the baseline scenario, unless the coverage of vegetation and permeable surfaces is significantly increased as a 14.8% reduction is achieved by greening all roof surfaces. We conclude that the study provides empirical support for the effectiveness of urban green infrastructure as nature-based solution to stormwater regulation and assists planners and operators of sewage systems in selecting the most effective measures for implementation and estimation of their effects.

2017

10.1016/j.envres.2017.05.023

Purola, Tuomo; Lehtonen, Heikki; Liu, Xing; Tao, Fulu; Palosuo, Taru

Production of cereals in northern marginal areas: An integrated assessment of climate change impacts at the farm level

AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS

Crop production in northern regions is projected to benefit from longer growing seasons brought on by future climate change. However, production also faces multiple challenges due to more frequent and intense extreme weather phenomena, and uncertain future prices of agricultural inputs and outputs. Extensive studies have been conducted to investigate the impacts of climate change on cereals yield change, but integrated assessments that also consider the management and economy of cereal farms have been rare so far. In this study, the effects of climate change-driven crop productivity change on farm level land use dynamics, input use, production management and farm income were considered from the point of view of dynamic decision making of a rational risk averse farmer. We assessed whether a farmer can gain from improved crop yields when using adapted cultivars and managing the farm accordingly. We incorporated crop yield estimates from a process-based large area crop model (MCWLA) run with two climate scenarios into a dynamic economic model of farm management and crop rotation (DEMCROP) to investigate future input use, land use with crop rotation, economic gross margins and greenhouse gas emissions. A time span of 30 years was considered. The model accounts for the yield responses to fertilisation, crop protection, liming of field parcels, and yield losses due to monoculture. The approach resulted in a novel and necessary analysis of farm management, production and income implications of climate change adaptation under different climate and socio-economic scenarios. We analysed the effects of different climate and price scenarios at a typical cereal farm in the North Savo region, which is currently a marginal area for crop production in Finland due to its harsh climate. Crop modelling results suggest a 19-27% increase of spring cereal yields and 11-19% increase of winter wheat yields from the current level until 2042-2070. According to our economic farm level simulations, these yield increases would incentivise farmers towards more intense input use resulting in additional increase of yields by 3-8% at current prices. More land is allocated to barley and wheat, less to set-aside and oat. The economic gross margin would increase significantly from the current low levels. Greenhouse gas emissions from farms were estimated to increase with increasing production, but emissions per quantity produced (measured as feed energy units) would decrease. There is potential for sustainable intensification (SI) of crop production in the region.

2018

10.1016/j.agsy.2018.01.018

Autio, Antti; Johansson, Tino; Motaroki, Lilian; Minoia, Paola; Pellikka, Petri

Constraints for adopting climate-smart agricultural practices among smallholder farmers in Southeast Kenya

AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS

CONTEXT: Climate uncertainty challenges the livelihoods of smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa. Awareness of climate-smart agricultural (CSA) practices and access to climate-smart technologies are key factors in determining the utilization of farm and land management practices that may simultaneously decrease greenhouse gas emissions, increase the adaptive capacity of farmers, and improve food security. OBJECTIVE: Understanding how biophysical and socio-economic constraints affect the adoption of CSA practices and technologies plays an essential role in policy and intervention planning. Our objective was to identify these constraints among smallholder farmers in Taita Taveta County of Southeast Kenya across varying agro-ecological zones. METHODS: We conducted a Climate-Smart Agriculture Rapid Appraisal that consisted of four mostly genderdisaggregated smallholder farmer workshops (102 participants), a household survey (65 participants), key informant interviews (16 informants), and four transect walks. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate a dissonance in the perceived awareness of CSA practices and utilization of CSA technologies between state actors and farmers. State actors emphasize lack of awareness as a barrier to adoption, while farmers express knowledgeability regarding environmental change and climate-smart practices but are confined by limitations and restrictions posed by e.g. market mechanisms, land tenure issues,and lack of resources. These restrictions include e.g. uncertainty in product prices, lack of land ownership, scarcity of arable land, and simply lack of capital or willingness to invest. Farmers are further challenged by the emergence of new pests and human-wildlife conflicts. Our research findings are based on the contextual settings of Taita Taveta County, but the results indicate that adopting CSA practices and utilizing technologies, especially in sub-Saharan regions that are heavily based on subsistence agriculture with heterogenous agro-ecological zones, require localized and gender-responsive solutions in policy formation and planning of both agricultural extension services and development interventions that take into account the agency of the farmers. SIGNIFICANCE: This study contributes to existing climate change adaptation research by increasing our un- derstanding of how physical and socio-economic constraints can affect the adoption of new farm and land management practices, and how CSA-based intervention strategies could be restructured by local stakeholders to be more inclusive.

2021

10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103284

Yang, Meng; Li, Xiuzhen; Hu, Yuanman; He, Xingyuan

Assessing effects of landscape pattern on sediment yield using sediment delivery distributed model and a landscape indicator

ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS

The rationale behind this research concerns the need to better understand relationships between landscape pattern and soil loss processes. Landscape indicators are commonly used to delineate these relationships. However, most indicators were not developed on the basis of soil loss progresses, and therefore their specific relationships with soil loss are difficult to construct. We improved the Location-weighted landscape Contrast Index which was developed based on sediment source-sink theory. This indicator encompasses three factors of landscape pattern: contribution of land cover types to soil erosion: composition and configuration of land covers. To analyze correlations between the landscape indicator and soil loss processes, variables expressing soil loss status should be first quantified.Therefore we applied the sediment delivery distributed model which incorporates revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) and sediment delivery ratio. The methods were applied in the Heishui and Zhenjiangguan subwatershed in the Upper Min River. Modeling results showed that 90% of the study area experienced soil erosion larger than 10 t/(ha yr). While its sediment yield rate was smaller than most tributaries in the Upper Yangtze River. Results of Pearson correlation analysis indicated that the rainfall factor in RUSLE was the dominant control and explained 93% of variance in sediment yield rate. We suggested preserving and increasing percentage cover of forests to adapt to climate change for soil conservation. Besides precipitation, landscape pattern was a principle factor correlated with sediment yield rate. The landscape indicator was significantly correlated to sediment delivery ratio, and explained 98% variation in sediment yield rate not considering precipitation by dropping the rainfall factor. The landscape indicator indicated that the landscape pattern was generally favorable for soil conservation in the two subwatersheds. This advantage was mainly ascribed to superior sediment sink-source compositions. In the Heishui subwatershed, however, sediment source contributed more to soil erosion processes than sink. Spatial configuration of sediment source and sink related to flow length were the most unfavorable factor, mainly due to the crops located in river vallyes. We gave suggestion to further optimize the landscape pattern: reducing percentage cover of grasslands with high soil erosion rate; decreasing soil erosion rate of sediment source in the Heishui subwatershed; increasing lengths of flow path from crops to river channels.

2012

10.1016/j.ecolind.2011.08.023

Jacobs, Z. L.; Yool, A.; Jebri, F.; Srokosz, M.; van Gennip, S.; Kelly, S. J.; Roberts, M.; Sauer, W.; Queiros, A. M.; Osuka, K. E.; Samoilys, M.; Becker, A. E.; Popova, E.

Key climate change stressors of marine ecosystems along the path of the East African coastal current

OCEAN & COASTAL MANAGEMENT

For the countries bordering the tropical Western Indian Ocean (TWIO), living marine resources are vital for food security. However, this region has largely escaped the attention of studies investigating potential impacts of future climate change on the marine environment. Understanding how marine ecosystems in coastal East Africa may respond to various climatic stressors is vital for the development of conservation and other ocean management policies that can help to adapt to climate change impacts on natural and associated human systems. Here, we use a high-resolution (1/4 degrees) ocean model, run under a high emission scenario (RCP 8.5) until the end of the 21st century, to identify key regionally important climate change stressors over the East African Coastal Current (EACC) that flows along the coasts of Kenya and Tanzania. We also discuss these stressors in the context of projections from lower resolution CMIP5 models. Our results indicate that the main drivers of dynamics and the associated ecosystem response in the TWIO are different between the two monsoon seasons. Our high resolution model projects weakening of the Northeast monsoon (December-February) winds and slight strengthening of the Southeast monsoon (May-September) winds throughout the course of the 21st century, consistent with CMIP5 models. The projected shallower mixed layers and weaker upwelling during the Northeast Monsoon considerably reduce the availability of surface nutrients and primary production. Meanwhile, primary production during the Southeast monsoon is projected to be relatively stable until the end of the century. In parallel, a widespread warming of up to 5 degrees C is projected year-round with extreme events such as marine heatwaves becoming more intense and prolonged, with the first year-long event projected to occur as early as the 2030s. This extreme warming will have significant consequences for both marine ecosystems and the coastal populations dependent on these marine resources. These region-specific stressors highlight the importance of dynamic ocean features such as the upwelling systems associated with key ocean currents. This indicates the need to develop and implement a regional system that monitors the anomalous behaviour of such regionally important features. Additionally, this study draws attention to the importance of investment in decadal prediction methods, including high resolution modelling, that can provide information at time and space scales that are more directly relevant to regional management and policy making.

2021

10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2021.105627

Pandey, Chandra Lal; Basnet, Anoj

Managing disasters integrating traditional knowledge and scientific knowledge systems: a study from Narayani basin, Nepal

DISASTER PREVENTION AND MANAGEMENT

Purpose Managing disasters using modern science and traditional knowledge systems in silos has several prospects and limitations. Despite the catalyst role of the traditional knowledge in reducing the risks of disasters and adapting to climate change, this knowledge has not featured prominently in any of the existing disaster policies and disaster science. The authors demonstrate how traditional knowledge and modern science can be integrated for holistic approach of disaster risk reduction and management. Design/methodology/approach Using qualitative research method complemented by thorough literature review, this article captures traditional knowledge and practices of communities in the Narayani Basin for flood disaster risks reduction and management and shows ways to integrate traditional knowledge and modern science for holistic approach of disaster risk reduction and management. Findings The authors found that traditional knowledge system and practices have worked as an alternative to modern technoengineering approaches of disaster risk reduction and management and hold immense potential to contribute against disasters; therefore, this knowledge system of the communities not only needs to be recognized, conserved and documented but also is to be incorporated into efforts to formulate effective disaster management strategies and be amalgamated with the technoengineering practices for a holistic approach so that it can ensure disaster safety and security of the communities. Research limitations/implications The authors conducted this study collecting primary data from Narayani basin only; however, the authors believe that these practices and findings of the research may still be representative. Practical implications The practical implication of this research is that traditional knowledge system needs to be integrated with technobureaucratic knowledge of disaster management, enabling to develop a more robust and holistic approach of disaster risk reduction and management. Social implications This research documents being extinct traditional knowledge system and empowers communities by supporting them to integrate and use both traditional knowledge and modern technobureaucratic knowledge for building communities flood resilient. Originality/value This research is based on both primary and secondary data and original in case of its findings and conclusion, and no similar research contextualizing the role of traditional knowledge system in flood disaster management has been conducted in Narayani Basin of Nepal in the past.

2022

10.1108/DPM-04-2021-0136

Palacios-Diaz, Maria del Pino; Mendoza-Grimon, Vanessa

Environment in Veterinary Education

VETERINARY SCIENCES

Simple Summary Environmental education is an important pillar for responding and adapting to climate change. The EU's common agricultural policy (CAP) has evolved from rules which supported the farming sector after years of famine and has become oriented towards looking at environmental aspects. The CAP policies oriented towards optimizing natural resource use, residue management, antimicrobial use reduction, the decrease in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and animal welfare, need educational programs linked to the environmental problems. In this context, veterinarians are experts in animal production, welfare, food safety, and its technology and in public health under the One Health concept. Unfortunately, they are barely trained in environmental aspects, which would help them to understand and face the consequences of climate change in the rural world. Veterinarians must be able to quantify the effects of animal production in the environment by using different analysis tools, which need to be included in their learning programs. In addition, they must be able to optimize the use of natural resources, minimize GHG emissions, and manage the risks associated with climate change. Environmental concerns have become priority issues over the last third of the 20th century. The EU's common agricultural policy (CAP) has gone from rules which supported the farming sector after years of famine to being oriented towards looking at environmental aspects. Therefore, it has evolved not only to react to a changing market and consumer demands but also to respond to climate change and the need for sustainable development. Environmental education is an important pillar for responding and adapting to climate change. The CAP policies oriented towards optimizing the use of natural resources, residue management, antimicrobial use reduction, the decrease of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), and animal welfare need linked educational programs. In this context, veterinarians, being experts in animal production, welfare, and food safety and its technology and public health under the One Health concept, are scarcely informed in environmental aspects, which would help them to understand and face the consequences of climate change in the rural world. Future veterinarians must be able to quantify the effects of animal production on the environment, optimizing the use of natural resources, minimizing GHG emissions, and managing the risks associated with climate change by using different analysis tools that need to be included in their learning programs.

2023

10.3390/vetsci10020146

Elijah, Volenzo Tom; Odiyo, John O.

Perception of Environmental Spillovers Across Scale in Climate Change Adaptation Planning: The Case of Small-Scale Farmers' Irrigation Strategies, Kenya

CLIMATE

The failure to acknowledge and account for environmental externalities or spillovers in climate change adaptation policy, advocacy, and programming spaces exacerbate the risk of ecological degradation, and more so, the degradation of land. The use of unsuitable water sources for irrigation may increase salinisation risks. However, few if any policy assessments and research efforts have been directed at investigating how farmer perceptions mediate spillovers from the ubiquitous irrigation adaptation strategy. In this study, the cognitive failure and/or bias construct is examined and proposed as an analytical lens in research, policy, and learning and the convergence of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation discourses. A cross-sectional survey design and multistage stratified sampling were used to collect data from 69 households. To elicit the environmental impacts of irrigation practices, topsoil and subsoils from irrigated and non-irrigated sites were sampled and analysed using AAS (atomic absorption spectrophotometer). A generalised linear logistic weight estimation procedure was used to analyse the perception of risks while an analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to analyse changes in exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP). The findings from small-scale farmers in Machakos and Kakamega counties, Kenya, suggest multifaceted biases and failures about the existence and importance of externalities in adaptation planning discourses. Among other dimensions, a cognitive failure which encompasses fragmented approaches among institutions for use and management of resources, inadequate policy. and information support, as well as the poor integration of actors in adaptation planning accounts for adaptation failure. The failures in such human-environment system interactions have the potential to exacerbate the existing vulnerability of farmer production systems in the long run. The findings further suggest that in absence of risk message information dissemination, education level, farming experience, and information accumulation, as integral elements to human capital, do not seem to have a significant effect on behaviour concerning the mitigation of environmental spillovers. Implicitly, reversing the inherent adaptation failures calls for system approaches that enhance coordinated adaptation planning, prioritise the proactive mitigation of slow-onset disaster risks, and broadens decision support systems such as risk information dissemination integration, into the existing adaptation policy discourses and practice.

2020

10.3390/cli8010003

Scheiber, Leon; David, Christoph Gabriel; Jalloul, Mazen Hoballah; Visscher, Jan; Nguyen, Hong Quan; Leitold, Roxana; Diez, Javier Revilla; Schlurmann, Torsten

Low-regret climate change adaptation in coastal megacities-evaluating large-scale flood protection and small-scale rainwater detentionmeasures for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES

Urban flooding is a major challenge for many megacities in low-elevation coastal zones (LECZs), especially in Southeast Asia. In these regions, the effects of environmental stressors overlap with rapid urbanization, which significantly aggravates the hazard potential. Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) in southern Vietnam is a prime example of this set of problems and therefore a suitable case study to apply the concept of low-regret disaster risk adaptation as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In order to explore and evaluate potential options of hazard mitigation, a hydro-numerical model was employed to scrutinize the effectiveness of two adaptation strategies: (1) a classic flood protection scheme including a large-scale ring dike as currently constructed in HCMC and (2) the widespread installation of small-scale rainwater detention as envisioned in the framework of the Chinese Sponge City Program (SCP). A third adaptation scenario (3) assesses the combination of both approaches (1) and (2). From a hydrological point of view, the reduction in various flood intensity proxies that were computed within this study suggests that large-scale flood protection is comparable but slightly more effective than small-scale rainwater storage: for instance, the two adaptation options could reduce the normalized flood severity index (INFS), which is a measure combining flood depth and duration, by 17.9% and 17.7 %, respectively. The number of flood-prone manufacturing firms that would be protected after adaptation, in turn, is nearly 2 times higher for the ring dike than for the Sponge City approach. However, the numerical results also reveal that both response options can be implemented in parallel, not only without reducing their individual effectiveness but also complementarily with considerable added value. Additionally, from a governance perspective, decentralized rainwater storage conforms ideally to the low-regret paradigm: while the existing large-scale ring dike depends on a binary commitment (to build or not to build), decentralized small- and micro-scale solutions can be implemented gradually (for example through targeted subsidies) and add technical redundancy to the overall system. In the end, both strategies are highly complementary in their spatial and temporal reduction in flood intensity. Local decision-makers may hence specifically seek combined strategies, adding to singular approaches, and design multi-faceted adaptation pathways in order to successfully prepare for a deeply uncertain future.

2023

10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023

Tang, Jia; Song, Peihao; Hu, Xijun; Chen, Cunyou; Wei, Baojing; Zhao, Siwen

Coupled effects of land use and climate change on water supply in SSP-RCP scenarios: A case study of the Ganjiang River Basin, China

ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS

Coupling land use and climate change under shared socioeconomic pathway and representative concentration pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios can provide more accurate predictions of water supply risks, thereby supporting decision-making for spatial planning with a focus on climate adaptation. Climate change exhibits spatial and temporal differences. To meet the requirements of spatial planning, further research is needed to assess water supply risks at different basin or regional scales. In this study, we selected four SSP-RCP scenarios for analysis, considering the temporal scale of spatial planning. The climate modeling capabilities of five global climate models (GCMs) and a multi-model ensemble (MME) were evaluated using a Taylor diagram, which assesses the performance of climate element simulations. The modeling framework that consisted of system dynamics (SD), patch-generating land-use simulations (PLUS), and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to analyze synergistic changes in climate, land use, and water supply. The Ganjiang River Basin (GRB) serves as a case study for climate-adaptive planning at the basin scale, given its characteristics of high agricultural water demand and vulnerability to droughts and floods. The study aims to provide decision-making support for such planning. In our projections, precipitation in the GRB showed a slightly increasing trend from 2021 to 2050. Monthly precipitation increases during the flood season in August and decreases during the dry season from October to December. The maximum and minimum temperatures showed an increasing trend on both the yearly and monthly scales, with slightly higher increases during fall and winter. During the planning phase, the land use quantities of SSP126 and SSP245 showed similar variations. SSP370 experienced the most significant reduction in farmland, while SSP585 displayed a more scattered and punctuated layout of construction land. The annual water supply in the GRB showed a slightly decreasing trend from 2021 to 2035 and 2036-2050, and the largest reduction was found in SSP370. The trend of variation in the monthly water supply was complex. There was a consistent trend of decreasing water supply during the dry season, whereas the changes during the flood season were more complex. Seasonal variations in water supply are a major water security concern for the basin's future. It is necessary to strengthen the agricultural water security planning in the northern region of the basin and enhance its ability to adapt to droughts and floods.

2023

10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110745

Wheeler, Stephen M.

State and Municipal Climate Change Plans: The First Generation

JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN PLANNING ASSOCIATION

Problem: Global warming has emerged as one of the new century's top planning challenges. But it is far from clear how state and local governments in the United States can best address climate change through planning. Purpose: As of 2008, 29 states had prepared some sort of climate change plan, and more than 170 local governments had joined the Cities for Climate Protection (CCP) campaign that requires that a plan be developed. This article analyzes this first generation of climate change plans and seeks to assess the goals being set, the measures included or left out, issues surrounding implementation, and the basic strengths and weaknesses of state and local climate change planning to date. Methods: I conducted this research by analyzing planning documents as well as interviewing state and local officials by telephone. I analyzed the plans of three types of governments: all states with planning documents on climate change; cities with populations of over 500,000 that are members of the CCP campaign; and selected smaller cities that are CCP members. Results and conclusions: Most plans set emissions-reduction goals, establish emission inventories, green public sector operations, and recommend a range of other measures. Many recent plans have been developed through extensive stakeholder processes and present very detailed lists of recommendations with quantified emissions benefits. But emissions-reduction goals vary widely, many proposed actions are voluntary, few resources have been allocated, and implementation of most measures has not yet taken place. Most plans do not address adaptation to a changing climate. Officials see rapidly growing public awareness of the issue and general support for climate change planning, but reluctance to change personal behavior. Takeaway for practice: Future climate change planning should (a) set goals that can adequately address the problem; (b) establish long-term planning frameworks in which progress toward these goals can be monitored on a regular basis and actions revised as needed; (c) include the full range of measures needed to reduce and adapt to climate change; (d) ensure implementation of recommended actions through commitment of resources, revised regulation, incentives for reducing emissions, and other means; and (e) develop strategies to deepen public awareness of the need for fundamental changes in behavior, for example regarding motor vehicle use. Research support: This research was supported by the University of California, Davis Department of Environmental Design.

2008

10.1080/01944360802377973

Jabareen, Yosef

An Assessment Framework for Cities Coping with Climate Change: The Case of New York City and its PlaNYC 2030

SUSTAINABILITY

Climate change and its resulting uncertainties challenge the concepts, procedures, and scope of conventional approaches to planning, creating a need to rethink and revise current planning methods. This paper proposes a new conceptual framework for assessing city plans based on the idea of sustainability and planning countering climate change. It applies this framework to assess the recent master plan for the city of New York City: PlaNYC 2030. The framework consists of eight concepts that were identified through conceptual analyses of the planning and interdisciplinary literature on sustainability and climate change. Using the proposed conceptual framework to evaluate PlaNYC 2030 reveals some of the merits of the Plan. PlaNYC promotes greater compactness and density, enhanced mixed land use, sustainable transportation, greening, and renewal and utilization of underused land. With regard to the concept of uncertainty, it addresses future uncertainties related to climate change with institutional measures only. From the perspective of ecological economics, the Plan creates a number of mechanisms to promote its climate change goals and to create a cleaner environment for economic investment. It offers an ambitious vision of reducing emissions by 30% and creating a greener, greater New York, and links this vision with the international agenda for climate change. On the other hand, the assessment reveals that PlaNYC did not make a radical shift toward planning for climate change and adaptation. It inadequately addresses social planning issues that are crucial to New York City. NYC is socially differentiated in terms of the capacity of communities to meet climate change uncertainties, and the Plan fails to address the issues facing vulnerable communities due to climate change. The Plan calls for an integrative approach to climate change on the institutional level, but it fails to effectively integrate civil society, communities, and grassroots organizations into the process. The lack of a systematic procedure for public participation throughout the city's neighborhoods and among different social groupings and other stakeholders is a critical shortcoming, particularly during the current age of climate change uncertainty. Practically, the proposed conceptual framework of evaluate appears to be an effective and constructive means of illuminating the Plan's strengths and weaknesses, and appears to be an easy-to-grasp evaluation method, and should be easily understood and applied by scholars, practitioners and policy makers.

2014

10.3390/su6095898

Vizinho, Andre; Avelar, David; Branquinho, Cristina; Capela Lourenco, Tiago; Carvalho, Silvia; Nunes, Alice; Sucena-Paiva, Leonor; Oliveira, Hugo; Fonseca, Ana Lucia; Duarte Santos, Filipe; Roxo, Maria Jose; Penha-Lopes, Gil

Framework for Climate Change Adaptation of Agriculture and Forestry in Mediterranean Climate Regions

LAND

Planning the adaptation of agriculture and forestry landscapes to climate change remains challenging due to the need for integrating substantial amounts of information. This information ranges from climate scenarios, geographical site information, socio-economic data and several possible adaptation measures. Thus, there is an urgent need to have a framework that is capable of organizing adaptation strategies and measures in the agriculture and forestry sectors in Mediterranean climatic regions. Additionally, this framework should provide a cause effect relation with climate vulnerability to adequately support the development of adaptation planning at municipal and local (farm) level. In this context, we propose to test and evaluate a framework for climate adaptation of the agriculture and forestry sectors, based on the local causal-effect relation between adaptation strategies and measures and the level of vulnerability reduction achieved for Mediterranean areas. The framework was developed based on the combination of the DPSIR (Driving forces, Pressures, State, Impacts, Responses) and Vulnerability frameworks and reviewed 162 practical adaptation measures, further organized into strategies, complemented by a set of efficacy indicators. The framework was tested with 70 stakeholders in six stakeholder workshops for the planning of two farms and one municipal climate adaptation study, that are now in actual implementation and monitoring. The framework is composed by a set of eight adaptation strategies in which adaptation measures are clustered and assessed using efficacy indicators. In the evaluation of the adaptation framework, 96% of stakeholders considered its content as good or very good and 89% considered the final outcomes as good or very good. Finally, the framework was also used to assess and compare the adaptation strategies and measures presented in the climate adaptation plans of the three case studies. On average, 52.2% of the adaptation measures selected by the three case studies are dedicated to Ecosystem Resilience, 30.9% to Adaptive Capacity, 9.1% to Microclimates, 7.4% to Protection, and 0.3% to Mitigation strategies. This framework was considered effective in supporting adaptation planning at farm and municipal levels and useful to assess and compare adaptation plans in the frame of vulnerability reduction. Future studies can further contribute to support adaptation planning in these sectors by using, developing and streamlining this framework to additional and different socio-ecological contexts.

2021

10.3390/land10020161

Chen Hongjin; Liu Lin; Zhang Zhengyong; Liu Ya; Tian Hao; Kang Ziwei; Wang Tongxia; Zhang Xueying

Spatio-temporal correlation between human activity intensity and land surface temperature on the north slope of Tianshan Mountains

JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES

Research on the spatio-temporal correlation between the intensity of human activities and the temperature of earth surfaces is of great significance in many aspects, including fully understanding the causes and mechanisms of climate change, actively adapting to climate change, pursuing rational development, and protecting the ecological environment. Taking the north slope of Tianshan Mountains, located in the arid area of northwestern China and extremely sensitive to climate change, as the research area, this study retrieves the surface temperature of the mountain based on MODIS data, while characterizing the intensity of human activities thereby data on the night light, population distribution and land use. The evolution characteristics of human activity intensity and surface temperature in the study area from 2000 to 2018 were analyzed, and the spatio-temporal correlation between them was further explored. It is found that: (1) The average human activity intensity (0.11) in the research area has kept relatively low since this century, and the overall trend has been slowly rising in a stepwise manner (0.0024 center dot a(-1)); in addition, the increase in human activity intensity has lagged behind that in construction land and population by 1-2 years. (2) The annual average surface temperature in the area is 7.18 degrees C with a pronounced growth. The rate of change (0.02 degrees C center dot a(-1)) is about 2.33 times that of the world. The striking boost in spring (0.068 degrees C center dot a(-1)) contributes the most to the overall warming trend. Spatially, the surface temperature is low in the south and high in the north, due to the prominent influence of the underlying surface characteristics, such as elevation and vegetation coverage. (3) The intensity of human activity and the surface temperature are remarkably positively correlated in the human activity areas there, showing a strong distribution in the east section and a weak one in the west section. The expression of its spatial differentiation and correlation is comprehensively affected by such factors as scopes of human activities, manifestations, and land-use changes. Vegetation-related human interventions, such as agriculture and forestry planting, urban greening, and afforestation, can effectively reduce the surface warming caused by human activities. This study not only puts forward new ideas to finely portray the intensity of human activities but also offers a scientific reference for regional human-land coordination and overall development.

2022

10.1007/s11442-022-2030-5

Barnes, Janice; Dow, Kirstin

Water AND Heat: Intervening in Adaptation Hazard Bias

FRONTIERS IN CLIMATE

After centuries of adapting to coastal living, increases in stormwater and tidal flooding events, along with projected sea level rise, led Charleston, South Carolina, USA to define flooding as an existential threat to the city. With billions of planned flood management projects underway, and additional billions of federal disaster flood recovery funds allocated to the State of South Carolina, the Governor's office established a South Carolina Office of Resilience in September 2020, with a focus on water management. The City of Charleston developed its own Flooding and Sea Level Rise Strategy. Simultaneously, the fourth National Climate Assessment pointed to heat health risks and projected costs of lost labor productivity concentrated in the Southeast, yet local recognition of heat as an equivalent threat to flooding was not apparent. Although Charleston's All Hazards Vulnerability Assessment included extreme heat as a significant hazard, without a group focused on heat, ongoing work in the city continued to prioritize water management as annual flood events rapidly escalated. This narrow adaptation framing was further solidified as funding focused on flood recovery and adaptation and technical experts worked within water-related boundaries. These interacting forces led to Hazard Bias, an inherent organizational process of reinforcing focus on a single hazard in the context of compound, complex hazard risks. To adapt to increasing heat, Charleston will need to raise compound risk awareness and adjust its capital investments in resilience to be inclusive of heat mitigation and adaptation as well as water. Yet in 2020 Charleston lacked basic urban heat data, technical expertise, and a strong source of motivation to develop a prioritization approach for recognizing multiple risks and complementary adaptation opportunities in those investments. Recognizing the inherent bias, a new coalition of heat researchers, practitioners, and health experts launched a tripartite heat-health research program and spurred the development of a new heat network in Charleston. The network reduced hazard bias by raising heat-health risk awareness and by intervening in adaptation planning to broaden water-only considerations to be inclusive of water AND heat. This paper provides a detailed case study how the intersections of multiple networks, messengers, and messages contributed to broadening the local resilience agenda from a hazard bias and how the lessons learned during this transformative process further reveal health inequities.

2022

10.3389/fclim.2022.868017

Lopes, Helder Silva; Remoaldo, Paula C.; Ribeiro, Vitor; Martin-Vide, Javier

Pathways for adapting tourism to climate change in an urban destination-Evidences based on thermal conditions for the Porto Metropolitan Area (Portugal)

JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT

The narrative of sustainable tourism transition in a context of adaptation to climate change is very relevant internationally. The availability and sharing of knowledge and information is a basic requirement for the successful planning of the tourism sector regarding this phenomenon. Planning adaptation in the urban tourism sector is widely regarded as a collectively-based process. However, collaborative planning is far from being the standard. This study reports the results of a Modified Delphi Approach (MDA) among experts about the future of urban tourism in a context of adaptation to climate change in Porto Metropolitan Area (Portugal), considering the outdoor thermal conditions perspective. Using an expert panel, the study gathered their opinions to analyze the degrees of responsibility of the main sectorial entities at different territorial levels, the conditions of action in the transformation agenda and the measures to be implemented in the adaptation and mitigation process - according to priority and time horizon. Two rounds were carried out to apply the methodology between January and April 2021. The first questionnaire had the participation of 47 professionals. 34 out of the 47 professionals of the 1st round participated in the second questionnaire. The evidence from different stakeholders demonstrates that there is an ambiguous process of understanding the problem, information needs, and a weak interaction between actors - resources - tasks. The effectiveness and efficiency of collaborative planning and outlined goals by 2050 for adaptation of urban tourism sector to climate change can be hampered. Experts consider the creation of structural (tangible) measures to be fundamental. Among other results, it was found that most participants consider that the intervention is dependent on the guidelines issued by the government and municipal councils when it comes to defining a proposal for adapting the urban tourism sector to climate change. Despite this, the options for more sustainable practices must be based on three axes: (i) solutions based on the energy sector in the hotel industry (e.g., energy certification, prioritization of the use of renewable energy); (ii) improvement and expansion of green infrastructure for tourist enjoyment [e.g., creation of green areas (small additional pockets), namely in the center of Porto; and pedestrianization of central areas of the city] and (iii) network participation through the collaboration of various stakeholders with relevance in tourism and urban planning.

2022

10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115161

Wardekker, J. Arjan; de Jong, Arie; van Bree, Leendert; Turkenburg, Wim C.; van der Sluijs, Jeroen P.

Health risks of climate change: An assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaptation policies

ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH

Background: Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. Methods: We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type and level of uncertainty for each impact, and discussed its implications for adaptation policy. A questionnaire-based expert elicitation was performed using an ordinal scoring scale. Experts were asked to indicate the level of precision with which health risks can be estimated, given the present state of knowledge. We assessed the individual scores, the expertise-weighted descriptive statistics, and the argumentation given for each score. Suggestions were made for how dealing with uncertainties could be taken into account in climate change adaptation policy strategies. Results: The results showed that the direction of change could be indicated for most anticipated health effects. For several potential effects, too little knowledge exists to indicate whether any impact will occur, or whether the impact will be positive or negative. For several effects, rough 'order-of-magnitude' estimates were considered possible. Factors limiting health impact quantification include: lack of data, multi-causality, unknown impacts considering a high-quality health system, complex cause-effect relations leading to multi-directional impacts, possible changes of present-day response-relations, and difficulties in predicting local climate impacts. Participants considered heat-related mortality and non-endemic vector-borne diseases particularly relevant for climate change adaptation. Conclusions: For possible climate related health impacts characterised by ignorance, adaptation policies that focus on enhancing the health system's and society's capability of dealing with possible future changes, uncertainties and surprises (e. g. through resilience, flexibility, and adaptive capacity) are most appropriate. For climate related health effects for which rough risk estimates are available, 'robust decision-making' is recommended. For health effects with limited societal and policy relevance, we recommend focusing on no-regret measures. For highly relevant health effects, precautionary measures can be considered. This study indicated that analysing and characterising uncertainty by means of a typology can be a very useful approach for selection and prioritization of preferred adaptation policies to reduce future climate related health risks.

2012

10.1186/1476-069X-11-67

Day, John W.; Gunn, Joel D.; Burger, Joseph Robert

Diminishing Opportunities for Sustainability of Coastal Cities in the Anthropocene: A Review

FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE

The world is urbanizing most rapidly in tropical to sub-temperate areas and in coastal zones. Climate change along with other global change forcings will diminish the opportunities for sustainability of cities, especially in coastal areas in low-income countries. Climate forcings include global temperature and heatwave increases that are expanding the equatorial tropical belt, sea-level rise, an increase in the frequency of the most intense tropical cyclones, both increases and decreases in freshwater inputs to coastal zones, and increasingly severe extreme precipitation events, droughts, freshwater shortages, heat waves, and wildfires. Current climate impacts are already strongly influencing natural and human systems. Because of proximity to several key warming variables such as sea-level rise and increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves, coastal cities are a leading indicator of what may occur worldwide. Climate change alone will diminish the sustainability and resilience of coastal cities, especially in the tropical-subtropical belt, but combined with other global changes, this suite of forcings represents an existential threat, especially for coastal cities. Urbanization has coincided with orders of magnitude increases in per capita GDP, energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, which in turn has led to unprecedented demand for natural resources and degradation of natural systems and more expensive infrastructure to sustain the flows of these resources. Most resources to fuel cities are extracted from ex-urban areas far away from their point of final use. The urban transition over the last 200 years is a hallmark of the Anthropocene coinciding with large surges in use of energy, principally fossil fuels, population, consumption and economic growth, and environmental impacts such as natural system degradation and climate change. Fossil energy enabled and underwrote Anthropocene origins and fueled the dramatic expansion of modern urban systems. It will be difficult for renewable energy and other non-fossil energy sources to ramp up fast enough to fuel further urban growth and maintenance and reverse climate change all the while minimizing further environmental degradation. Given these trajectories, the future sustainability of cities and urbanization trends, especially in threatened areas like coastal zones in low-income countries in the tropical to sub-tropical belt, will likely diminish. Adaptation to climate change may be limited and challenging to implement, especially for low-income countries.

2021

10.3389/fenvs.2021.663275

Borysiak, Olena; Wolowiec, Tomasz; Gliszczynski, Grzegorz; Brych, Vasyl; Dluhopolskyi, Oleksandr

Smart Transition to Climate Management of the Green Energy Transmission Chain

SUSTAINABILITY

Climate challenges in recent decades have forced a change in attitude towards forms of environmental interaction. The International Climate Conference COP26 evidences the relevance of the climate issue at the global level in Glasgow (November 2021). A decrease in natural energy resources leads to a search for alternative energy sources. Given this, this article is devoted to studying the peculiarities of the transition to climate management of the green energy transmission chain based on the circular economy and smart technologies. This paper has used simulation modeling to develop an algorithm for applying a smart approach to climate management of the green energy transmission chain based on the work of Industry 4.0 technologies. The result of this modeling will be the importance of strengthening the ability to develop intersectoral partnerships to create climate-energy clusters based on a closed cycle of using energy resources and developing smart technologies. At the same time, it has been found that COVID-19 has changed the behaviour of energy consumers towards the transition to the use of energy from renewable sources that are carbon neutral. With this in mind, this article has assessed the climate capacity of industries to use green energy from renewable sources based on resource conservation (rational use of energy resources) and climate neutrality. The industries of Ukraine, which are the largest consumers of energy and, at the same time, significantly affected by climate change, were taken for the study: industry, transport, and agriculture. The methodology for determining the indicator of the climate capacity of sectors in the transition to green energy has been based on the correlation index (ratio) of the consumption indicator of various types of energy by industries (petroleum products; natural gas; biofuels and waste; electricity) and the indicator of gross value added of industries in pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 conditions. The results have indicated that the use of energy from renewable sources (biofuels and waste) for the production of goods and services, as well as the economical nature of the provision of raw materials (biomass and faeces) are factors that ensure climate industry neutrality and enhance its climate capability. The prospects of such effects of assessing the climate capacity of sectors will be the basis for the rationale to develop intersectoral partnerships to create climate-energy clusters based on a closed cycle of using energy resources and developing smart technologies.

2022

10.3390/su141811449

Rahmati, Omid; Falah, Fatemeh; Dayal, Kavina Shaanu; Deo, Ravinesh C.; Mohammadi, Farnoush; Biggs, Trent; Moghaddam, Davoud Davoudi; Naghibi, Seyed Amir; Dieu Tien Bui

Machine learning approaches for spatial modeling of agricultural droughts in the south-east region of Queensland Australia

SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT

A quantitative understanding of the hydro-environmental factors that influence the occurrence of agricultural drought events would enable more strategic climate change adaptation and drought management plans. Practical drought hazard mapping remains challenging due to possible exclusion of the most pertinent drought drivers, and to the use of inadequate predictive models that cannot describe drought adequately. This research aims to develop new approaches to map agricultural drought hazard with state-of-the-art machine learning models, including classification and regression trees (CART), boosted regression trees (BRT), random forests (RF), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), flexible discriminant analysis (FDA) and support vector machines (SVM). Hydro-environmental datasets were used to calculate the relative departure of soil moisture (RDSM) for eight severe droughts for drought-prone southeast Queensland, Australia, over the period 1994-2013. RDSM was then used to generate an agricultural drought inventory map. Eight hydro-environmental factors were used as potential predictors of drought. The goodness-of-fit and predictive performance of all models were evaluated using different threshold-dependent and threshold-independent methods, including the true skill statistic (TSS), Efficiency (E), F-score, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCROC). The RF model (AUC-ROC = 97.7%, TSS = 0.873, E = 0.929, F-score = 0.898) yielded the highest accuracy, while the MA model (with AUC-ROC = 73.9%, TSS = 0.424, E = 0.719, F-score = 0.512) showed the worst performance. The plant available water holding capacity (PAWC), mean annual precipitation, and day content were the most important variables to be used for predicting the agricultural drought. About 21.2% of the area is in high or very high drought risk classes, and therefore, warrant drought and environmental protection policies. Importantly, the models do not require data on the precipitation anomaly for any given drought year; the spatial patterns in AGH were consistent for all drought events, despite very different spatial patterns in precipitation anomaly among events. Such machine-learning approaches are able to construct an overall risk map, thus assisting in the adoption of a robust drought contingency planning measure not only for this area, but also, in other regions where drought presents a pressing challenge, including its influence on key practical dimensions of social, environmental and economic sustainability.

2020

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134230

Aviso, K. B.; Cayamanda, C. D.; Solis, F. D. B.; Danga, A. M. R.; Promentilla, M. A. B.; Yu, K. D. S.; Santos, J. R.; Tan, R. R.

P-graph approach for GDP-optimal allocation of resources, commodities and capital in economic systems under climate change-induced crisis conditions

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION

Climate change impacts may manifest via multiple pathways, often leading to a shortage of resources, reduction in production capacities, or reduction in available labor inputs that are vital for economic activities. Effective climate change adaptation strategies are needed to determine the optimal allocation of scarce resources, commodities or capital under crisis conditions to minimize the economic consequences. In such cases, it is necessary to account for structural properties of economic systems to ensure that rational distribution policies are implemented. Input output models are used to illustrate interdependencies among economic sectors and to assess both direct and indirect effects of disruptive events. Alternatively, these interdependencies may be exploited for developing effective recovery efforts to minimize the ripple effects of a crisis. In this paper, a process graph representation of the input output model is developed to generate a rational procedure for the allocation of scarce resources, commodities or capital during crisis conditions. The process graph model is a graph-theoretic approach originally developed for chemical process design applications. The analogous problem structure allows it to be used for the input-output system. The method is demonstrated through several case studies to identify allocation policies geared towards reducing the impact of disruptions attributed to critical resources, commodities, or capital. Results show that depending on the economic structure, the optimal allocation of scarce resources, commodities or capital will satisfy the final demands of some economic sectors and reduce the production capacity of others in order to minimize the reduction of total gross domestic product. Though similar results can be obtained through traditional mathematical programming models, the process graph platform has the advantage to visually present the distribution of scarce resources, commodities or capital within the system. This work is a first attempt to implement the process graph approach in the fields of economics and climate change adaptation. In conclusion, the process graph based approach developed in this work can be used to provide policymakers with insights in developing appropriate risk mitigation plans associated with climate change-induced crisis conditions. Potential applications include both the development of disaster preparedness measures for anticipated disruptions, as well as the implementation of real-time emergency response in the midst of a crisis.

2015

10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.12.077

Cuevas, Sining C.

Institutional dimensions of climate change adaptation: insights from the Philippines

CLIMATE POLICY

Understanding the institutional dimensions of climate change adaptation (CCA) is critical to the adaptation process. The institutional changes that follow the introduction of a CCA measure affect certain areas of governance, including social, political, policy, and other domains that are already exposed to prevailing institutions. Thus, understanding CCA necessitates analysis of the interplays between and among institutions that exist within a hierarchical structure, as well as the examination of how institutions across different scales define the challenges in CCA implementation. This article contributes to this discussion by investigating the challenges in mainstreaming CCA into local land use planning in Albay, Philippines. It applies a four-stage mixed methodology and uses a modified Institutional Analysis and Development framework as its primary analytical guide. Its findings imply that: (1) mainstreaming CCA is a multi-scale, multi-setting endeavour; (2) mainstreaming CCA operationalization involves networks of interacting institutions and institutional arrangements; and (3) addressing the challenges in mainstreaming needs extensive institutional transformations that reach across the various institutional settings within these networks.POLICY RELEVANCEThis article advocates that, in designing strategies to address the challenges in mainstreaming CCA, analysts, planners, and policy makers must understand that the challenges exist within a network of institutional settings, and that these challenges encompass a chain of institutional interactions or interplays within this network. Accordingly, overcoming these challenges necessitates broad institutional reforms that go beyond the institutional setting where CCA is to be mainstreamed. Moreover, this article suggests that CCA policy making and analysis must focus on the vertical, horizontal, and network linkages and relationships created by institutional arrangements, as well as on the interplays facilitated by these arrangements. More importantly, there is a need to determine whether the institutional interplays between and among existing and planned institutions are complementary, counterproductive, conflicting, overlapping, neutral, or coexisting. Such knowledge will assist policy makers and analysts to understand the existing and potential barriers to, as well as identify opportunities for, adaptation. Consequently, the solutions to address the barriers, and the strategies that can take advantage of the opportunities, can be formulated effectively.

2018

10.1080/14693062.2017.1314245

Palosuo, Taru; Hoffmann, Munir P.; Roetter, Reimund P.; Lehtonen, Heikki S.

Sustainable intensification of crop production under alternative future changes in climate and technology: The case of the North Savo region

AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS

CONTEXT: Sustainable intensification (SI) is needed to cope with the challenges agriculture faces with respect to climate change and increasing food demand. Northern cropping systems may benefit from longer and warmer growing seasons, but the sustainability of production will be challenged due to increased production risks. Concentrated efforts are needed to find ways to adapt cropping to changing conditions and sustainably intensify production. OBJECTIVE: This study combined stakeholder knowledge and simulation modelling to find means for the sustainable intensification of cereal production in the North Savo region in Finland. METHODS: Stakeholders identified promising intensification measures in two workshops. Alternative options for sustainable intensification and climate adaptations and their combinations were assessed using the APSIM cropping system model. The model was used to assess cereal yields, the grain nitrogen (N) content, nitrate leaching and water productivity for a historical baseline (1981?2010) and mid-century conditions (2041?2070) projected by five general circulation models for different emission scenarios. Simulated management options included improved cultivars with later maturing characteristics, improved heat/drought resistance and nitrogenuse efficiency, increased N fertilisation levels, improved crop rotations together with improved soil, as well as supplementary and full irrigation. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The simulation results indicated that although a warming climate in conjunction with elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations generally increase yield levels, N uptake and water productivity, risks associated with higher N leaching due to increased precipitation are a challenge for the sustainability of crop production. Overall, different SI options affected the sustainability indicators studied more than future projected climate, strongly suggesting that there is a large potential for sustainably intensifying crop production in northern conditions, particularly when applying more than one intensification measure at a time. Among a wide set of SI options tested for their sustainability impacts, improved crop cultivars showed the firmest positive impacts. This was supported by the views of agricultural stakeholders in the region. SIGNIFICANCE: While the agricultural stakeholder?s suggestions for alternative SI options challenged the simulation approach to some extent, the simulations provided robust information for comparing the sustainability impacts of alternative measures.

2021

10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103135

Smith, A. C.; Tasnim, T.; Irfanullah, H. Md.; Turner, B.; Chausson, A.; Seddon, N.

Nature-based Solutions in Bangladesh: Evidence of Effectiveness for Addressing Climate Change and Other Sustainable Development Goals

FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE

Many lower-income countries are highly vulnerable to the impacts of natural disasters and climate change, due to their geographical location and high levels of poverty. In response, they are developing climate action plans that also support their sustainable development goals, but conventional adaptation approaches such as hard flood defenses can be expensive and unsustainable. Nature-based solutions (NbS) could provide cost-effective options to address these challenges but policymakers lack evidence on their effectiveness. To address this knowledge gap, we focused on Bangladesh, which is exceptionally vulnerable to cyclones, relative sea-level rise, saline intrusion, floods, landslides, heat waves and droughts, exacerbated by environmental degradation. NbS have been implemented in Bangladesh, but there is no synthesis of the outcomes in a form accessible to policymakers. We therefore conducted a systematic review on the effectiveness of NbS for addressing climate and natural hazards, and the outcomes for other sustainable development goals. Research encompasses protection, restoration and participatory management of mangroves, terrestrial forests and wetlands, as well as conservation agriculture and agro-forestry, but there is an evidence gap for urban green infrastructure. There is robust evidence that, if well-designed, these NbS can be effective in reducing exposure to natural disasters, adapting to climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions while empowering marginalized groups, reducing poverty, supporting local economies and enhancing biodiversity. However, we found short-term trade-offs with local needs, e.g. through over-harvesting and conversion of ecosystems to aquaculture or agriculture. To maximize NbS benefits while managing trade-offs, we identified four enabling factors: support for NbS in government policies; participatory delivery involving all stakeholders; strong and transparent governance; and provision of secure finance and land tenure, in line with international guidelines. More systematic monitoring of NbS project outcomes is also needed. Bangladesh has an opportunity to lead the way in showing how high quality NbS can be deployed at landscape scale to tackle sustainable development challenges in low to middle income countries, supporting a Green Economic Recovery. Our evidence base highlights the value of protecting irreplaceable natural assets such as mangroves, terrestrial forests and wetlands, and the non-market benefits they deliver, in national planning policies.

2021

10.3389/fenvs.2021.737659

Savvidou, Georgia; Atteridge, Aaron; Omari-Motsumi, Kulthoum; Trisos, Christopher H.

Quantifying international public finance for climate change adaptation in Africa

CLIMATE POLICY

Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, international financial assistance is expected to support African and other developing countries as they prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change. The impact of this finance depends on how much finance is mobilized and where it is targeted. However, there has been no comprehensive quantitative mapping of adaptation-related finance flows to African countries to date. Here we track development finance principally targeting adaptation from bilateral and multilateral funders to Africa between 2014 and 2018. We find that the amounts of finance are well below the scale of investment needed for adaptation in Africa, which is a region with high vulnerability to climate change and low adaptation capacity. Finance targeting mitigation (US$30.6 billion) was almost double that for adaptation (US$16.5 billion). The relative share of each varies greatly among African countries. More adaptation-related finance was provided as loans (57%) than grants (42%) and half the adaptation finance has targeted just two sectors: agriculture; and water supply and sanitation. Disbursement ratios for adaptation in this period are 46%, much lower than for total development finance in Africa (at 96%). These are all problematic patterns for Africa, highlighting that more adaptation finance and targeted efforts are needed to ensure that financial commitments translate into meaningful change on the ground for African communities. Key policy insights Between 2014 and 2018, adaptation-related finance committed by bilateral and multilateral funders to African countries remained well below US$5.5 billion per year, or roughly US$5 per person per year; these amounts are well below the estimates of adaptation costs in Africa. Funders have not strategically targeted support for adaptation activities towards the most vulnerable to climate change African countries. Lessons from countries that have been more successful in accessing finance point to the value of more sophisticated domestic adaptation policies and plans; of alignment with priorities of the NDC; of meeting funding requirements of specific funders; and of the strategic use of climate funds by national planners. A low adaptation finance disbursement ratio in this period in Africa (at 46%) relates to barriers impeding the full implementation of adaptation projects: low grant to loan ratio; requirements for co-financing; rigid rules of climate funds; and inadequate programming capacity within many countries.

2021

10.1080/14693062.2021.1978053

Lesnikowski, Alexandra; Jodoin, Sebastien; Lemay, Jean-Philippe; Thomson, Verity; Johnson, Kasia

Human rights in climate change adaptation policies: a systematic assessment

CLIMATE POLICY

Human rights have potential to enhance adaptation because they reflect internationally agreed upon standards of human dignity, aim to advance formal and substantive forms of equality, and can be used to hold public and private actors accountable for rights violations. We assess whether, how, and under what conditions national adaptation policies recognize human rights principles and standards. We analyze 217 adaptation policies from 147 countries to examine whether there is substantive recognition of the vulnerability and needs of equity-deserving groups that experience systemic marginalization and exclusion, and procedural inclusion of these groups in adaptation planning and decision-making. Results indicate that while under the Paris Agreement governments commit to respect human rights in their adaptation policies and actions, few countries are abiding by this commitment. Only one-third of countries refer to respect, promotion, or consideration of human rights within their adaptation policies. While most countries included here recognize specific conditions of different vulnerable groups in their policies, there is minimal evidence of their inclusion in the adaptation planning and decision-making process, and half of countries fail to identify specific measures that will be developed to reduce their vulnerability. None of the strategies that we reviewed pointed to the creation of accountability mechanisms for redressing harms that may arise due to adaptation actions. We also develop a series of regression models to examine whether hypothesized national predictors of adaptation action are associated with attention to human rights principles and standards. The models indicate that countries with greater wealth and equality are more likely to include attention to human rights norms in their adaptation strategies, but countries with less wealth, more inequality, and less political freedom appear to achieve a more substantive level of engagement with these norms in their strategies. Most countries fail to link human rights obligations and adaptation in national policies.Most countries situate national adaptation policies within various structural drivers of vulnerability.Equity-deserving groups are not being included in national adaptation planning in meaningful ways.Participation of equity-deserving groups predicts inclusion of measures to build adaptive capacity among those groups.National governments do not identify accountability mechanisms that address human rights harms from adaptation actions.

2023

10.1080/14693062.2023.2261881

Derouez, Faten; Ifa, Adel

Sustainable Food Security: Balancing Desalination, Climate Change, and Population Growth in Five Arab Countries Using ARDL and VECM

SUSTAINABILITY

This study examines the complex interplay between food security, climate change, population, water, and renewable energy desalination in five Arab countries: Morocco, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Using a comprehensive econometric approach: an Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag approach (ARDL) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) technique spanning 1990-2022, to explore the short- and long-run dynamics of these relationships and identify causal linkages. The ARDL results reveal a mixed outcome. While renewable energy desalination capacity holds potential for enhancing food security in all countries, its impact depends on cost and government support. The cost of desalination negatively affects food security in most cases, highlighting the need for cost-effective solutions. Climate change poses a significant threat, particularly in Morocco, Egypt, and Jordan, but it may also offer unexpected opportunities for KSA and UAE. Population growth, unsurprisingly, strains food security across the region. Water scarcity emerges as a major challenge, especially for Jordan. The Granger causality tests uncover bidirectional relationships between renewable energy desalination, climate change, and water in Morocco and Jordan, suggesting their interconnected influence. In Egypt, population, water, and food imports drive the system, while KSA and UAE exhibit complex dynamics with renewable energy desalination and food imports acting as key drivers. Policymakers facing the complex challenge of food security in Arab countries should take note of this research's multifaceted findings. While renewable energy desalination holds promise, its success hinges on reducing costs through technological advancements and government support, particularly in Morocco, Egypt, and Jordan. Climate change adaptation strategies must be prioritized, while recognizing potentially unexpected opportunities in regions like KSA and UAE. Additionally, addressing water scarcity through innovative resource management is crucial, especially for Jordan. Managing population growth through family planning initiatives and promoting sustainable agricultural practices are vital for long-term food security. Finally, the identified causal relationships underscore the need for integrated policy approaches that acknowledge the interconnectedness of these factors. By tailoring responses to the specific dynamics of each nation, policymakers can ensure effective interventions and secure a sustainable food future for the region.

2024

10.3390/su16062302

Weise, Kathrin; Hoefer, Rene; Franke, Jonas; Guelmami, Anis; Simonson, Will; Muro, Javier; O'Connor, Brian; Strauch, Adrian; Flink, Stephan; Eberle, Jonas; Mino, Eric; Thulin, Susanne; Philipson, Petra; van Valkengoed, Eric; Truckenbrodt, John; Zanderg, Franziska; Sanchez, Antonio; Schroeder, Christoph; Thonfeld, Frank; Fitoka, Eleni; Scott, Emma; Ling, Matthew; Schwarz, Michael; Kunz, Ina; Thuemer, Grit; Plasmeijer, Anouska; Hilarides, Lammert

Wetland extent tools for SDG 6.6.1 reporting from the Satellite-based Wetland Observation Service (SWOS)

REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT

Wetlands are the most fragile and threatened ecosystems worldwide, and also one of the most rapidly declining. At the same time wetlands are typically biodiversity hotspots and provide a range of valuable ecosystem services, such as water supply and purification, disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation, and carbon sequestration. Pressures on wetlands are likely to further intensify in the coming decades due to increased global demand for land and water, and due to climate change. Stakeholders at all levels of governance have to be involved to slow, stop and reverse these processes. However, the information they need on wetland extent, their ecological character, and their ecosystem services is often scattered, sparse and difficult to find and access. The freely available Sentinel satellite data of the Copernicus Programme, as well as the Landsat archive, provide a comprehensive basis to map and inventory wetland areas (extent), to derive information on the ecological status, as well as long- and short-term trends in wetland characteristics. However, making use of these Earth Observation (EO) resources for robust and standardized wetland monitoring requires expert knowledge on often complex data processing techniques, which impedes practical implementation. In this respect, the Satellite-based Wetland Observation Service (SWOS), a Horizon 2020 funded project (www.swos-service.eu) has developed and made disseminated monitoring approaches based on EO data, specifically designed for less experienced satellite data users. The SWOS monitoring tools aim at assisting countries in conducting national wetland inventories for their Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) reporting and monitoring obligations, and additionally facilitates other monitoring obligations such as those required by the Ramsar Convention and supports decision-making in local conservation activities. The four main components of the SWOS approach are: map and indicator production; software development; capacity building; and initializing the GEO Wetlands Community Portal. Wetland managers and data analysists from more than fifty wetland sites and river basins across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa investigated the benefits and limitations of this EO-based wetland mapping and monitoring approach. We describe research that applies the SWOS tools to test their potential for the mapping of wetlands in a case study based in Albania, and show its effectiveness to derive metrics relevant to the monitoring of SDG indicator 6.6.1.

2020

10.1016/j.rse.2020.111892

Fagiewicz, K.; Churski, P.; Herodowicz, T.; Kaczmarek, P.; Lupa, P.; Morawska-Jancelewicz, J.; Mizgajski, A.

Cocreation for Climate Change-Needs for Actions to Vitalize Drivers and Diminish Barriers

WEATHER CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

This study determines the conditions and provides a recommendation for fostering cocreation for climate change adaptation and mitigation (CCA&M). In postulating that insufficient cocreation by stakeholders in the quadruple helix model is an important factor contributing to the low effectiveness of climate actions in the regions, we have focused our research on identifying real stakeholder engagement in climate action and identifying the needs, barriers, and drivers for strengthening the cocreation process. We identified the needs for action highlighted by stakeholders as having an impact on reducing barriers and stimulating drivers. We treated the identified needs for action as deep leverage points (intent and design) focused on three realms-knowledge, values, and institutions-in which engagement and cocreation can be strengthened and have the potential to increase the effectiveness of climate action taken by stakeholders within our quadruple helix. We recommend knowledge-based cocreation, which puts the importance of climate action in the value system and leads to paradigm reevaluation. The implementation of the identified needs for action requires the support of institutions, whereby they develop standards of cooperation and mechanisms for their implementation as a sustainable framework for stakeholder cooperation. The research has proved how the quadruple helix operates for climate action in the Poznan Agglomeration. We believe that this case study can be a reference point for regions at a similar level of development, and the methods used and results obtained can be applied in similar real contexts to foster local stakeholders in climate action. Significance Statement This study aims to understand the condition of cocreation and engagement between stakeholders included in the quadruple helix model responding to climate change challenges. We identified needs for climate actions in the Poznan Agglomeration and operationalized them as leverage points, which can strengthen engagement and cocreation and contribute to increasing the effectiveness of climate action taken by stakeholders. We show a wide range of possible climate actions, but at the same time we highlight the barriers that, in the Poznan Agglomeration case, mainly result from poor cooperation between stakeholders and insufficient use of social capital. Cities with similar problems could make use of our results and consider both weak points and recommended solutions in planning strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation.

2021

10.1175/WCAS-D-20-0114.1

Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Gandorfer, Markus

Impact of climate change on farms in smallholder farming systems: Yield impacts, economic implications and distributional effects

AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS

The impact of climate change on farms can be determined by factors such as local climatic changes, farm physical environment, the type of crops grown, and household socio-economic characteristics that limit or increase adaptability to climate change. The current study assesses the impacts of climate and socio-economic changes on smallholder farms in two districts of Ethiopia representing different agro-ecology in a major agricultural region. For this purpose, observed farm production data, simulated yield under climate change and socio-economic scenarios were used. The aim was to produce information that facilitates an understanding of the unequal economic implications of climate change on farms. To this end, the study applied the Tradeoff Analysis for Multi-Dimensional impact assessment (TOA-MD) economic simulation model in combination with the AquaCrop yield simulation model. The findings on climate change impact towards 2030 highlight the uneven implications of climate change on farms and the role that agro-ecology and future solo-economic development scenarios play in determining climate change impact. It is found that, under the climate projections we considered crops such as tef, barley and wheat are found to benefit from the projected climate change in cool regions. In warm regions, tef and wheat are projected to be negatively affected whereas maize would benefit. The proportion of farms that are negatively affected by climate change ranged between 51% and 78% in warm regions under different scenarios; in cool regions, the proportion of negatively affected farms ranged between 10% and 22%. The implications of climate change are found to vary under various socio-economic scenarios, in which positive socio-economic scenarios considerably reduced the proportion of negatively affected farms. The economic implications of climate change also found to differ among farms within agro-ecology because of differences in land allocation to various crops that have different sensitivity to climate change, and due to other farm differences. Thus, the study shows the importance of using farm and site-specific production and climate data to reveal variabilities in climate change impact. It also provides evidence on the relevance of accounting for agro-ecology and crop differences as well as consideration of potential socio-economic changes. Overall, the results suggest that appropriate agricultural interventions that recognize location and crop differences are essential to minimize climate change impact.

2017

10.1016/j.agsy.2016.12.006

Schneider, Paul; Lawrence, Judy; Glavovic, Bruce; Ryan, Emma; Blackett, Paula

A rising tide of adaptation action: Comparing two coastal regions of Aotearoa-New Zealand

CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT

Diverse and contested local interests and the complexity of climate change make adaptation to climate change risks at the coast challenging. Even in similar settings, adaptation experiences and prospects can differ markedly. Why? This paper provides empirical evidence of comparative adaptation experiences in two regions of Aotearoa-New Zealand the Coromandel Peninsula and the Hawke's Bay coast. We critically examine how local barriers and enablers influence the trajectory of adaptation in two regions that face similar risks, have essentially the same institutional architecture, and yet have had very different adaptation experiences. We investigate the situational differences and similarities, and their implications for adaptation in each region. We found that the evolution of adaptation is shaped by the perceptions of the actors, especially local authority leaders, and opportunities that arise at a context-specific point in time. Such perceptions and opportunities can amount to barriers in one location and enablers in another. Growing concern about coastal hazard risk, improving levels of trust and legitimacy, community engagement, and collaborative governance were key to innovative long-term adaptation planning in the Hawke's Bay but their absence has led to short-term business as usual practices in the Coromandel. Yet even in the latter case, change is underway and longer-term adaptation planning is commencing. We conclude that there is a 'rising tide' of adaptation action in the face of escalating climate risk - with long-term planning and local action triggered by cumulative hazard experience and / or extreme events that raise public concern and make climate change salient to local community members and leaders. Both local and regional interests and concerns shape local response appetites. Proactive, local authority-led engagement and long-term strategic planning are foundational for mobilizing effective adaptation responses. Enabling national policy, guidance and institutional provisions are key to prompting and sustaining such efforts, and to facilitating broad consistency in locally appropriate responses. Notwithstanding efforts to foster locally appropriate but nationally aligned adaptation responses, our research shows that coastal communities and their local authorities follow pathways consistent with local risk appetites, understanding about climate change, and the political will and capacity of local government to mobilize key governance actors around long-term strategic planning.

2020

10.1016/j.crm.2020.100244

Kulkarni, Manisha A.; Duguay, Claudia; Ost, Katarina

Charting the evidence for climate change impacts on the global spread of malaria and dengue and adaptive responses: a scoping review of reviews

GLOBALIZATION AND HEALTH

Background Climate change is expected to alter the global footprint of many infectious diseases, particularly vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue. Knowledge of the range and geographical context of expected climate change impacts on disease transmission and spread, combined with knowledge of effective adaptation strategies and responses, can help to identify gaps and best practices to mitigate future health impacts. To investigate the types of evidence for impacts of climate change on two major mosquito-borne diseases of global health importance, malaria and dengue, and to identify the range of relevant policy responses and adaptation strategies that have been devised, we performed a scoping review of published review literature. Three electronic databases (PubMed, Scopus and Epistemonikos) were systematically searched for relevant published reviews. Inclusion criteria were: reviews with a systematic search, from 2007 to 2020, in English or French, that addressed climate change impacts and/or adaptation strategies related to malaria and/or dengue. Data extracted included: characteristics of the article, type of review, disease(s) of focus, geographic focus, and nature of the evidence. The evidence was summarized to identify and compare regional evidence for climate change impacts and adaptation measures. Results A total of 32 reviews met the inclusion criteria. Evidence for the impacts of climate change (including climate variability) on dengue was greatest in the Southeast Asian region, while evidence for the impacts of climate change on malaria was greatest in the African region, particularly in highland areas. Few reviews explicitly addressed the implementation of adaptation strategies to address climate change-driven disease transmission, however suggested strategies included enhanced surveillance, early warning systems, predictive models and enhanced vector control. Conclusions There is strong evidence for the impacts of climate change, including climate variability, on the transmission and future spread of malaria and dengue, two of the most globally important vector-borne diseases. Further efforts are needed to develop multi-sectoral climate change adaptation strategies to enhance the capacity and resilience of health systems and communities, especially in regions with predicted climatic suitability for future emergence and re-emergence of malaria and dengue. This scoping review may serve as a useful precursor to inform future systematic reviews of the primary literature.

2022

10.1186/s12992-021-00793-2

Wigand, C.; Sundberg, K.; Hanson, A.; Davey, E.; Johnson, R.; Watson, E.; Morris, J.

Varying Inundation Regimes Differentially Affect Natural and Sand-Amended Marsh Sediments

PLOS ONE

Climate change is altering sea level rise rates and precipitation patterns worldwide. Coastal wetlands are vulnerable to these changes. System responses to stressors are important for resource managers and environmental stewards to understand in order to best manage them. Thin layer sand or sediment application to drowning and eroding marshes is one approach to build elevation and resilience. The above-and below-ground structure, soil carbon dioxide emissions, and pore water constituents in vegetated natural marsh sediments and sand-amended sediments were examined at varying inundation regimes between mean sea level and mean high water (0.82 m NAVD88 to 1.49 m NAVD88) in a field experiment at Laws Point, part of the Plum Island Sound Estuary (MA). Significantly lower salinities, pH, sulfides, phosphates, and ammonium were measured in the sand-amended sediments than in the natural sediments. In natural sediments there was a pattern of increasing salinity with increasing elevation while in the sand-amended sediments the trend was reversed, showing decreasing salinity with increasing elevation. Sulfide concentrations generally increased from low to high inundation with highest concentrations at the highest inundation (i. e., at the lowest elevations). High pore water phosphate concentrations were measured at low elevations in the natural sediments, but the sand-amended treatments had mostly low concentrations of phosphate and no consistent pattern with elevation. At the end of the experiment the lowest elevations generally had the highest measures of pore water ammonium. Soil carbon dioxide emissions were greatest in the sandamended mesocosms and at higher elevations. Differences in coarse root and rhizome abundances and volumes among the sediment treatments were detected with CT imaging, but by 20 weeks the natural and sand-amended treatments showed similar total belowground biomass at the intermediate and high elevations. Although differences in pore water nutrient concentrations, pH, salinity, and belowground root and rhizome morphology were detected between the natural and sand-amended sediments, similar belowground productivity and total biomass were measured by the end of the growing season. Since the belowground productivity supports organic matter accumulation and peat buildup in marshes, our results suggest that thin layer sand or sediment application is a viable climate adaptation action to build elevation and coastal resiliency, especially in areas with low natural sediment supplies.

2016

10.1371/journal.pone.0164956

Ojha, Hemant R.; Ghimire, Sharad; Pain, Adam; Nightingale, Andrea; Khatri, Dil B.; Dhungana, Hari

Policy without politics: technocratic control of climate change adaptation policy making in Nepal

CLIMATE POLICY

As developing countries around the world formulate policies to address climate change, concerns remain as to whether the voices of those most exposed to climate risk are represented in those policies. Developing countries face significant challenges for contextualizing global-scale scientific research into national political dynamics and downscaling global frameworks to sub-national levels, where the most affected are presumed to live. This article critiques the ways in which the politics of representation and climate science are framed and pursued in the process of climate policy development, and contributes to an understanding of the relative effectiveness of globally framed, generic policy mechanisms in vulnerable and politically volatile contexts. Based on this analysis, it also outlines opportunities for the possibility of improving climate policy processes to contest technocratic framing and generic international adaptation solutions. Policy relevance Nepal's position as one of the countries most at risk from climate change in the Himalayas has spurred significant international support to craft climate policy responses over the past few years. Focusing on the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) and the Climate Change Policy, this article examines the extent to which internationally and scientifically framed climate policy in Nepal recognizes the unfolding political mobilizations around the demand for a representative state and equitable adaptation to climate risks. This is particularly important in Nepal, where political unrest in the post-conflict transition after the end of the civil war in 2006 has focused around struggles over representation for those historically on the political margins. Arguing that vulnerability to climate risk is produced in conjunction with social and political conditions, and that not everyone in the same locality is equally vulnerable, we demonstrate the multi-faceted nature of the politics of representation for climate policy making in Nepal. However, so far, this policy making has primarily been shaped through a technocratic framing that avoids political contestations and downplays the demand for inclusive and deliberative processes. Based on this analysis, we identify the need for a flexible, contextually grounded, and multi-scalar approach to political representation while also emphasizing the need for downscaling climate science that can inform policy development and implementation to achieve fair and effective adaptation to climate change.

2016

10.1080/14693062.2014.1003775

Caves, Jeremy K.; Bodner, Gitanjali S.; Simms, Karen; Fisher, Larry A.; Robertson, Tahnee

Integrating Collaboration, Adaptive Management, and Scenario-Planning: Experiences at Las Cienegas National Conservation Area

ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY

There is growing recognition that public lands cannot be managed as islands; rather, land management must address the ecological, social, and temporal complexity that often spans jurisdictions and traditional planning horizons. Collaborative decision making and adaptive management (CAM) have been promoted as methods to reconcile competing societal demands and respond to complex ecosystem dynamics. We detail the experiences of land managers and stakeholders in using CAM at Las Cienegas National Conservation Area (LCNCA), a highly valued site under the jurisdiction of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The CAM process at Las Cienegas is marked by strong stakeholder engagement, with four core elements: (1) shared watershed goals with measurable resource objectives; (2) relevant and reliable scientific information; (3) mechanisms to incorporate new information into decision making; and (4) shared learning to improve both the process and management actions. The combination of stakeholder engagement and adaptive management has led to agreement on contentious issues, more innovative solutions, and more effective land management. However, the region is now experiencing rapid changes outside managers' control, including climate change, human population growth, and reduced federal budgets, with large but unpredictable impacts on natural resources. Although the CAM experience provides a strong foundation for making the difficult and contentious management decisions that such changes are likely to require, neither collaboration nor adaptive management provides a sufficient structure for addressing the externalities that drive uncontrollable and unpredictable change. As a result, LCNCA is exploring two specific modifications to CAM that may better address emerging challenges, including: (1) creating nested resource objectives to distinguish between those objectives that may be crucial to maintaining ecological resilience from those that may hinder a flexible response to climate change, and (2) incorporating scenario planning into CAM to explore how climate change may interact with other drivers and alter options for the future, to identify robust management actions, and to prioritize ecological monitoring efforts. The experiences at LCNCA demonstrate how collaboration and adaptive management can be used to improve social and environmental outcomes and, with modifications, may help address the full range of complexity and change that threatens to overwhelm even the best efforts to sustain public lands.

2013

10.5751/ES-05749-180343

Omukuti, Jessica; Barrett, Sam; White, Piran C. L.; Marchant, Robert; Averchenkova, Alina

The green climate fund and its shortcomings in local delivery of adaptation finance

CLIMATE POLICY

The Paris Agreement recognizes the important role that local level actors play in ensuring climate change adaptation that contributes to meeting the global temperature goal. As a financial mechanism of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the largest dedicated climate fund, the Green Climate Fund (GCF) is critical to achieving this goal. How GCF allocates its resources is therefore a critical area of research. This article assesses GCF's commitment to the local delivery of adaptation finance and identifies the key barriers to GCF's achievement of this commitment. The analysis finds that although GCF's policies and communications fully commit to funding local level adaptation, three key barriers still prevent it from delivering finance to the local level. First, GCF lacks a unified framework for identifying and defining the local level, local actors, and local adaptation processes. Second, GCF exhibits limited transparency and accountability in relation to how approved funding for adaptation is spent, particularly for projects that claim to generate local level adaptation outcomes. Third, some Accredited Entities have limited experience and capacity for designing and implementing projects that deliver finance to the local level. This is because the local delivery of finance is not prioritized by GCF during the accreditation of entities or provision of readiness support to Accredited Entities. Our findings indicate limited evidence of GCF's full operationalization of its commitment to supporting local adaptation. We recommend that GCF develop and apply a unified framework for defining what constitutes 'local'. Key policy insights GCF is committed to supporting local adaptation finance in developing countries but has failed to adequately operationalize this commitment. To increase local delivery of climate finance, GCF should develop a unified framework for local delivery of adapation finance that emphasises local actors' leadership in design, implementation, and management of adaptation projects. GCF should also increase transparency and accountability of funded projects to enable independent assessments of local delivery of adaptation finance by making project information, including financial reports publicly available. GCF should ensure that Accredited Entities have capacity to develop and deliver projects that deliver adaptation finance to the local level e.g. by requiring entities to provide evidence of support for local adaptation during accreditation.

2022

10.1080/14693062.2022.2093152

Princiotta, Frank T.; Loughlin, Daniel H.

Global climate change: The quantifiable sustainability challenge

JOURNAL OF THE AIR & WASTE MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATION

Population growth and the pressures spawned by increasing demands for energy and resource-intensive goods, foods, and services are driving unsustainable growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Recent GHG emission trends are consistent with worst-case scenarios of the previous decade. Dramatic and near-term emission reductions likely will be needed to ameliorate the potential deleterious impacts of climate change. To achieve such reductions, fundamental changes are required in the way that energy is generated and used. New technologies must be developed and deployed at a rapid rate. Advances in carbon capture and storage, renewable, nuclear, and transportation technologies are particularly important; however, global research and development efforts related to these technologies currently appear to fall short relative to needs. Even with a proactive and international mitigation effort, humanity will need to adapt to climate change, but the adaptation needs and damages will be far greater if mitigation activities are not pursued in earnest. In this review, research is highlighted that indicates increasing global and regional temperatures and ties climate changes to increasing GHG emissions. GHG mitigation targets necessary for limiting future global temperature increases are discussed, including how factors such as population growth and the growing energy intensity of the developing world will make these reduction targets more challenging. Potential technological pathways for meeting emission reduction targets are examined, barriers are discussed, and global and U. S. modeling results are presented that suggest that the necessary pathways will require radically transformed electric and mobile sectors. While geoengineering options have been proposed to allow more time for serious emission reductions, these measures are at the conceptual stage with many unanswered cost, environmental, and political issues. Implications: This paper lays out the case that mitigating the potential for catastrophic climate change will be a monumental challenge, requiring the global community to transform its energy system in an aggressive, coordinated, and timely manner. If this challenge is to be met, new technologies will have to be developed and deployed at a rapid rate. Advances in carbon capture and storage, renewable, nuclear, and transportation technologies are particularly important. Even with an aggressive international mitigation effort, humanity will still need to adapt to significant climate change.

2014

10.1080/10962247.2014.923351

Yu, Yifeng; You, Qinglong; Zuo, Zhiyan; Zhang, Yuqing; Cai, Ziyi; Li, Wei; Jiang, Zhihong; Ullah, Safi; Tang, Xu; Zhang, Renhe; Chen, Deliang; Zhai, Panmao; Shrestha, Sangam

Compound climate extremes in China: Trends, causes, and projections

ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH

Human society and ecosystems are impacted by climate extremes more than by climate averages. In contrast with climate extremes that are driven by individual climatic variables, compound climate extremes stem from a combination of multiple climatic drivers and usually lead to more severe risks than the former extremes do. The influences of the drivers for compound climate extremes are strengthening under global warming. Firstly, this review details the development of the definition of compound climate extremes over recent years and describes different types of events, such as compound drought and heatwave extremes (CDHEs), compound day and night heat extremes (CDNHEs), and compound flooding (CF). Secondly, historical trends in compound climate ex-tremes in China over the past half-century, and projections of future trends under different scenarios, are dis-cussed. For example, this study points out that a large part of China has experienced longer, stronger, and more frequent CDHEs than other parts of the country. CDHEs have followed a significantly increasing trend since the 1990s, and this trend is projected to strengthen further under different scenarios in the future. Thirdly, this study reviews different potential causes for compound climate extremes, including the internal variability of the climate system (e.g., land and atmosphere feedbacks, large-scale circulation patterns) and external anthropo-genic forcings (e.g., urbanization and anthropogenic emissions). In this study, we summarize risks from different perspectives by considering interactions between hazards, vulnerability, and exposure. Many studies show that risks to infrastructural damage and population exposure are projected to increase in the future, and that crop yields and ecosystem gross primary production are likely to reduce. Finally, we generalize our study and show that there is an urgent need for a comprehensive study of different combinations of compound events. We argue that it is important that we understand the key dynamic and thermal processes that are modulated by specific drivers and investigate the uncertainty in the projected variabilities for compound climate extremes. This re-quires interdisciplinary collaboration and will allow appropriate risk adaptation strategies to be developed. There has been great progress in research into compound climate extremes; however, an improved understanding of the mechanisms and risks is necessary as a theoretical basis for more effective climate adaptation policies.

2023

10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106675

Butler, James R. A.; Rochester, Wayne; Skewes, Tim D.; Wise, Russell M.; Bohensky, Erin L.; Katzfey, Jack; Kirono, Dewi G. C.; Peterson, Nate; Suadnya, Wayan; Yanuartati, Y.; Handayani, Tarningsih; Habibi, Putrawan; Jaya, Komang Damar; Sutaryono, Yusuf; Masike-Liri, Barbara; Vaghelo, Desmond; Duggan, Kate

How Feasible Is the Scaling-Out of Livelihood and Food System Adaptation in Asia-Pacific Islands?

FRONTIERS IN SUSTAINABLE FOOD SYSTEMS

The sustainable development and food security of islands in the Asia-Pacific region is severely compromised by climate change, sea level rise and compounding socio-economic issues. To achieve a step-change in food production and climate adaptation, livelihoods must rapidly transform. Food security programs continue to apply the pipeline model of scaling-out technological innovations, but do not account for the social-ecological complexity of islands. We tested the feasibility of scaling-out adaptation strategies in two provinces in the region: Nusa Tenggara Barat in Indonesia, and West New Britain in Papua New Guinea. Guided by a sub-district typology of resource use, we trialled a participatory, systems-based livelihood adaptation pathways approach in sub-district case studies. The process aimed to mainstream social learning and future uncertainty into community development decision-making, yielding 'no regrets' adaptation strategies to transform livelihoods. We tested two assumptions: first, that because the contexts of all villages were homogenous, strategies were sufficiently similar to enable scaling-out across the provinces; second, that the sub-district typologies would assist scaling-out within each type. The results showed that the first assumption was untenable: there was very little similarity amongst villages' strategies; only sustainable fisheries management was scalable amongst coastal villages. The second was marginally tenable, because there were strong similarities amongst villages in an off-shore island type. When pooled into classes of adaptation strategy, most related to practice and behaviour change, and addressed systemic social issues; very few were technological. Our results suggest that scaling-out livelihood and food system innovations is not feasible due to the complex social-ecological contexts within islands, caused by steep climate gradients, natural resource and cultural diversity. We discuss the limitations of a resource use typology that aimed to mitigate this complexity and guide scaling-out. Instead we argue that appropriate social learning approaches akin to livelihood adaptation pathways must be mainstreamed into existing community development decision cycles, thereby scaling-up and scaling-deep to tackle institutional, political and cultural barriers to transformation. We discuss the implications of our recommendations for government and donor support for food security programs in islands of the Asia-Pacific region, and future research priorities.

2020

10.3389/fsufs.2020.00043

DiFrancesco, Kara; Gitelman, Alix; Purkey, David

Bottom-Up Assessment of Climate Risk and the Robustness of Proposed Flood Management Strategies in the American River, CA

WATER

The hydrologic nonstationarity and uncertainty associated with climate change requires new decision-making methods to incorporate climate change impacts into flood frequency and flood risk analyses. To aid decision-making under climate change, we developed a bottom-up approach for assessing the performance of flood management systems under climate uncertainty and nonstationarity. The developed bottom-up approach was applied to the American River, CA, USA flood management system by first identifying the sensitivity and vulnerability of the system to different climates. To do this, we developed a climate response surface by calculating and plotting Expected Annual Damages (EAD, $/year) under different flood regimes. Next, we determined a range of plausible future climate change and flood frequency scenarios by applying Bayesian statistical methods to projected future flows derived from a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model forced with Global Circulation Model (GCM) output. We measured system robustness as the portion of plausible future scenarios under which the current flood system could meet its performance goal. Using this approach, we then evaluated the robustness of four proposed management strategies in the 2012 Central Valley Flood Protection Plan in terms of both flood risk and cost-effectiveness, to assess the performance of the strategies in the face of climate risks. Results indicated that the high sensitivity of the expected damages to changes in flood regimes makes the system extremely vulnerable to a large portion of the plausible range of future flood conditions. The management strategy that includes a combination of nature-based flood management actions along with engineered structures yields the greatest potential to increase system robustness in terms of maintaining EAD below an acceptable risk threshold. However, this strategy still leaves the system vulnerable to a wide range of plausible future conditions. As flood frequency regimes increase in intensity from the current conditions, the cost-effectiveness of the management strategies increases, to a point, before decreasing. This bottom up analysis demonstrated a viable decision-making approach for water managers in the face of uncertain and changing future conditions. Neglecting to use such an approach and omitting climate considerations from water resource planning could lead to strategies that do not perform as expected or which actually lead to mal-adaptations, increasing vulnerability to climate change.

2020

10.3390/w12030907

Okey, Thomas A.; Agbayani, Selina; Alidina, Hussein M.

Mapping ecological vulnerability to recent climate change in Canada's Pacific marine ecosystems

OCEAN & COASTAL MANAGEMENT

Much knowledge is emerging about the past and potential effects of climate change on the unique and complex marine ecosystems of Canada's Pacific, including variations in the resilience, sensitivities, responsiveness, and non-stationarity of the biota. Such knowledge, however, is rarely synthesized or summarized with any overall integrated analyses that could guide the development of proactive planning for the effects of climate change. Regional and local planning of climate adaptation strategies, for example, requires an examination of ecological sensitivities and vulnerabilities at relevant spatial resolutions. We developed an illustrative example of a habitat-based ecological vulnerability assessment for the whole of Canada's Pacific marine area using existing spatial information from this region and from the California Current ecosystem. Potential climate impacts were calculated as the product of estimated exposure (E) of habitats to multiple dimensions of changing climate variables and expert-derived sensitivity (S) ratings of those habitats to changes in those climate variables. Vulnerability was then derived as the product of the estimated potential climate impacts in a location and the estimated cumulative impacts (Cl) of non-climate stressors there, which we considered to be an inverse proxy of the adaptive capacity (AC) of the biota in those habitats. We found considerable spatial variability of potential climate impacts and vulnerability on the scales of the 12 Ecosections of Canada's Pacific, 25 habitat categories, and at finer scales. We produced maps of ecological vulnerability to climate change as an example output for use in spatially-oriented adaptation planning. Our initial assessment indicated that the Strait of Georgia in particular followed by Queen Charlotte Strait, Juan de Fuca Strait, Vancouver Island Shelf, and Johnstone Strait have relatively high vulnerabilities to climate change, in part due to concentrations of local stressors there. On a coast wide basis the habitats that were indicated as most vulnerable are shallow rocky reefs, seagrass habitats, kelp habitats, and deep rocky reefs. This approach for mapping vulnerability to climate change could be improved with finer scale climate data, additional climate variables, and stressor-habitat sensitivity estimates derived specifically for this system. We provide a stepwise manual for policy-makers, managers, or other practitioners to map ecological vulnerability to climate change in other marine settings.

2015

10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2015.01.009

ten Brinke, Niek; Vinke-de Kruijf, Joanne; Volker, Leentje; Prins, Nora

Mainstreaming climate adaptation into urban development projects in the Netherlands: private sector drivers and municipal policy instruments

CLIMATE POLICY

Improving the climate resilience of urban areas critically depends on the integration of climate adaptation measures, i.e. mainstreaming, into regular construction practices. As research has largely focused on public sector adaptation, the mainstreaming of adaptation into private sector projects remains poorly understood. The aims of this study are twofold. First, we examine what drives private developers and investors to mainstream adaptation into large-scale urban development projects. Second, we explore what policy instruments municipalities can employ to stimulate private sector mainstreaming. Our theoretical lens combines insights from the literature on mainstreaming, sustainable building drivers and policy instruments. These concepts are used to guide our analysis of four urban development projects and an interview study in the Netherlands, a densely populated delta country which is rather vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Our results show that private developers and investors seldom explicitly include adaptation measures into their development projects. An important impediment is the perceived absence of direct monetary benefits. If adaptation measures are implemented, they are often realized as a side-effect of creating a high-quality living environment or because private actors expect other professional benefits, such as corporate image enhancement or development of know-how. To stimulate private sector mainstreaming, Dutch municipalities already use a mix of policy instruments that might be a source of inspiration for other countries. Yet, especially the way in which enforcement and incentives are applied is not always effective. Key policy insights Despite the private sector's growing awareness about the need for and importance of climate change adaptation in the Netherlands, adaptation is still seldom explicitly included in large-scale urban development projects. Municipalities should invest in policy instruments that target consumers. Communication, education and incentives can be used to raise consumer awareness and consequently demand for climate-adaptive properties. Municipalities should collaborate with the private sector to develop clear, uniform and feasible adaptation requirements. Municipalities should actively participate in urban development projects, i.e. co-developing with the private sector. This way, private sector drivers and policy instruments can strengthen each other to pave the way for future-proof and climate-resilient urban environments.

2022

10.1080/14693062.2022.2111293

Elum, Zelda Anne; Snijder, Mieke

Climate change perception and adaptation among farmers in coastal communities of Bayelsa State, Nigeria: a photovoice study

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGIES AND MANAGEMENT

PurposeThere is an increasing need for greater awareness and understanding of the risks climate change poses to farming communities so as to inform appropriate adaptive responses. The purpose of this study is to investigate farmers' climate change impacts, awareness, risk perception and current adaptation strategies adopted to deal with the impacts of climate change on their livelihood. Design/methodology/approachThis research was undertaken with 67 farmers in Bayelsa State, Nigeria. This study used a combination of focus group discussion and quantitative survey to obtain data. Surveyed farmers were invited to an initial workshop and asked to take photos of climate change impacts on their land and the adaptation strategies being adopted. The photos were analysed and discussed with the farmers in a second workshop. Then, in a third workshop, farmers and other stakeholders came together to rank the most important consequences of climate change and shared knowledge on adaptation strategies. The survey and photovoice data were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. FindingsThe results of this study showed that a majority of the farmers were knowledgeable of climate change, mostly got climate information through media. Floods and high temperatures were perceived as the most occurring climate change-related disaster risks. Majority of the farmers perceived climate change as high risk and have taken up multiple adaptation strategies in response to it, including changing planting times, mulching their land and digging irrigation pits. Farmers' responses indicated that they want to do more but are restricted by financial resources. Practical implicationsThis study outcomes provide evidence for a need to consider stakeholders' participation in planning climate change responses to effectively address the challenges posed by climate change, particularly in coastal agricultural communities. Government and relevant agencies as recommended need to support farmers to undertake needed adaptive strategies to adapt with future flooding, high temperature and drought, providing them with necessary facilities to enhance their adaptive capacities. Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this was one of the first studies to use photovoice to investigate climate change awareness, impacts and adaptations strategies with majority female farmers in west Africa. This study highlights the importance of participatory approaches to capture grassroots climate adaptation approaches.

2023

10.1108/IJCCSM-07-2022-0100