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Pessarrodona, Albert; Franco-Santos, Rita M.; Wright, Luka Seamus; Vanderklift, Mathew A.; Howard, Jennifer; Pidgeon, Emily; Wernberg, Thomas; Filbee-Dexter, Karen

Carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation using macroalgae: a state of knowledge review

BIOLOGICAL REVIEWS

The conservation, restoration, and improved management of terrestrial forests significantly contributes to mitigate climate change and its impacts, as well as providing numerous co-benefits. The pressing need to reduce emissions and increase carbon removal from the atmosphere is now also leading to the development of natural climate solutions in the ocean. Interest in the carbon sequestration potential of underwater macroalgal forests is growing rapidly among policy, conservation, and corporate sectors. Yet, our understanding of whether carbon sequestration from macroalgal forests can lead to tangible climate change mitigation remains severely limited, hampering their inclusion in international policy or carbon finance frameworks. Here, we examine the results of over 180 publications to synthesise evidence regarding macroalgal forest carbon sequestration potential. We show that research efforts on macroalgae carbon sequestration are heavily skewed towards particulate organic carbon (POC) pathways (77% of data publications), and that carbon fixation is the most studied flux (55%). Fluxes leading directly to carbon sequestration (e.g. carbon export or burial in marine sediments) remain poorly resolved, likely hindering regional or country-level assessments of carbon sequestration potential, which are only available from 17 of the 150 countries where macroalgal forests occur. To solve this issue, we present a framework to categorize coastlines according to their carbon sequestration potential. Finally, we review the multiple avenues through which this sequestration can translate into climate change mitigation capacity, which largely depends on whether management interventions can increase carbon removal above a natural baseline or avoid further carbon emissions. We find that conservation, restoration and afforestation interventions on macroalgal forests can potentially lead to carbon removal in the order of 10's of Tg C globally. Although this is lower than current estimates of natural sequestration value of all macroalgal habitats (61-268 Tg C year(-1)), it suggests that macroalgal forests could add to the total mitigation potential of coastal blue carbon ecosystems, and offer valuable mitigation opportunities in polar and temperate areas where blue carbon mitigation is currently low. Operationalizing that potential will necessitate the development of models that reliably estimate the proportion of production sequestered, improvements in macroalgae carbon fingerprinting techniques, and a rethinking of carbon accounting methodologies. The ocean provides major opportunities to mitigate and adapt to climate change, and the largest coastal vegetated habitat on Earth should not be ignored simply because it does not fit into existing frameworks.

2023

10.1111/brv.12990

Rodriguez-Llanes, Jose Manuel; Ranjan-Dash, Shishir; Mukhopadhyay, Alok; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

Looking upstream: enhancers of child nutritional status in post-flood rural settings

PEERJ

Background. Child undernutrition and flooding are highly prevalent public health issues in many developing countries, yet we have little understanding of preventive strategies for effective coping in these circumstances. Education has been recently highlighted as key to reduce the societal impacts of extreme weather events under climate change, but there is a lack of studies assessing to what extent parental education may prevent post-flood child undernutrition. Methods and Materials. One year after large floods in 2008, we conducted a two stage cluster population-based survey of 6-59 months children inhabiting flooded and non-flooded communities of Jagatsinghpur district, Odisha (India), and collected anthropometric measurements on children along with child, parental and household level variables through face-to-face interviews. Using multivariate logistic regression models, we examined separately the effect of maternal and paternal education and other risk factors (mainly income, socio-demographic, and child and mother variables) on stunting and wasting in children from households inhabiting recurrently flooded communities (2006 and 2008; n = 299). As a comparison, separate analyses Ion children in non-flooded communities were carried out (n = 385). All analyses were adjusted by income as additional robustness check. Results. Overall, fathers with at least completed middle education (up to 114 years of age and compulsory in India) had an advantage in protecting their children from child wasting and stunting. For child stunting, the clearest result was a 100-200% lower prevalence associated with at least paternal secondary schooling (compared to no schooling) in flooded-areas. Again, only in flooded communities, an increase in per capita annual household income of 1,000 rupees was associated to a 4.7-4.9% lower prevalence of child stunting. For child wasting in flooded areas, delayed motherhood was associated to better nutritional outcomes (3.4% lower prevalence per year). In flooded communities, households dedicated to activities other than agriculture, a 50-51% lower prevalence of child wasting was estimated, suggesting farmers and fishermen as the most vulnerable livelihoods under flooding. In flooded areas, lower rank castes were at higher odds of both child wasting and stunting. Conclusions. In the short-term, protracted nutritional response in the aftermath of floods should be urgently implemented and target agricultural livelihoods and low rank castes. Education promotion and schooling up to 14 years should have positive impacts on improving children nutritional health in the long run, especially under flooding. Policies effectively helping sustainable livelihood economic development and delayed motherhood are also recommended.

2016

10.7717/peerj.1741

Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Salazar, Mike; Jarvis, Andy; Navarro-Racines, Carlos E.

A way forward on adaptation to climate change in Colombian agriculture: perspectives towards 2050

CLIMATIC CHANGE

Policy measures regarding adaptation to climate change include efforts to adjust socio-economic and ecologic systems. Colombia has undertaken various measures in terms of climate change mitigation and adaptation since becoming a party of the Kyoto protocol in 2001 and a party of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1995. The first national communication to the UNFCCC stated how Colombian agriculture will be severely impacted under different emission scenarios and time frames. The analyses in this document further support that climate change will severely threaten the socioeconomics of Colombian agriculture. We first query national data sources to characterize the agricultural sector. We then use 17 Global Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to quantify how Colombian agricultural production may be affected by climate change, and show the expected changes to years 2040-2069 (2050) under the A2 scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES-A2) and the overall trends in both precipitation and temperature to 2100. We then evaluate expected changes within different regions and measure the proportion of area affected within each crop's distributional range. By 2050, climatic change in Colombia will likely impact 3.5 million people, 14 % of national GDP corresponding to agriculture, employment of 21 % of the population, agro-industries, supply chains, and food and nutritional security. If no adaptation measures are taken, 80 % of crops would be impacted in more than 60 % of their current areas of cultivation, with particularly severe impacts in high value perennial and exportable crops. Impacts also include soil degradation and organic matter losses in the Andes hillsides; likely flooding in the Caribbean and Pacific coasts; niche losses for coffee, fruit, cocoa, and bananas; changes in prevalence of pests and diseases; and increases in the vulnerabilities of non-technically developed smallholders. There is, however, still time to change the current levels of vulnerability if a multidisciplinary focus (i.e., agronomic, economic, and social) in vulnerable sectors is undertaken. Each sub-sector and the Government need to invest in: (1) data collection, (2) detailed, regionally-based impact assessments, (3) research and development, and (4) extension and technology transfer. Support to vulnerable smallholders should be given by the state in the form of agricultural insurance systems contextualized under the phenomenon of climate change. A national coordination scheme led by (but not restricted to) the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MADR) with the contributions of national and international institutions is needed to address agricultural adaptation.

2012

10.1007/s10584-012-0500-y

Moors, Eddy J.; Groot, Annemarie; Biemans, Hester; van Scheltinga, Catharien Terwisscha; Siderius, Christian; Stoffel, Markus; Huggel, Christian; Wiltshire, Andy; Mathison, Camilla; Ridley, Jeff; Jacob, Daniela; Kumar, Pankaj; Bhadwal, Suruchi; Gosain, Ashvin; Collins, David N.

Adaptation to changing water resources in the Ganges basin, northern India

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY

An ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) runs from the EU HighNoon project are used to project future air temperatures and precipitation on a 25 km grid for the Ganges basin in northern India, with a view to assessing impact of climate change on water resources and determining what multi-sector adaptation measures and policies might be adopted at different spatial scales. The RCM results suggest an increase in mean annual temperature, averaged over the Ganges basin, in the range 1-4 degrees C over the period from 2000 to 2050, using the SRES A1B forcing scenario. Projections of precipitation indicate that natural variability dominates the climate change signal and there is considerable uncertainty concerning change in regional annual mean precipitation by 2050. The RCMs do suggest an increase in annual mean precipitation in this region to 2050, but lack significant trend. Glaciers in headwater tributary basins of the Ganges appear to be continuing to decline but it is not clear whether meltwater runoff continues to increase. The predicted changes in precipitation and temperature will probably not lead to significant increase in water availability to 2050, but the timing of runoff from snowmelt will likely occur earlier in spring and summer. Water availability is subject to decadal variability, with much uncertainty in the contribution from climate change. Although global social-economic scenarios show trends to urbanization, locally these trends are less evident and in some districts rural population is increasing. Falling ground-water levels in the Ganges plain may prevent expansion of irrigated areas for food supply. Changes in socio-economic development in combination with projected changes in timing of runoff outside the monsoon period will make difficult choices for water managers. Because of the uncertainty in future water availability trends, decreasing vulnerability by augmenting resilience is the preferred way to adapt to climate change. Adaptive policies are required to increase society's capacity to adapt to both anticipated and unanticipated conditions. Integrated solutions are needed, consistent at various spatial scales, to assure robust and sustainable future use of resources. For water resources this is at the river basin scale. At present adaptation measures in India are planned at national and state level, not taking into account the physical boundaries of water systems. To increase resilience adaptation plans should be made locally specific. However, as it is expected that the partitioning of water over the different sectors and regions will be the biggest constraint, a consistent water use plan at catchment and river basin scale may be the best solution. A policy enabling such river basin planning is essential.

2011

10.1016/j.envsci.2011.03.005

Holt, N.; Shukla, S.

TRANSFORMING THE PLASTICULTURE PRODUCTION SYSTEM THROUGH NOVEL BED GEOMETRY DESIGN

TRANSACTIONS OF THE ASABE

Raised-bed plasticulture with drip irrigation is used worldwide for growing high-value crops, especially vegetables. This high-input, intensive system must become more efficient to meet food demands while reducing its environmental footprint. Futuristic tall and narrow compact beds were designed with an aim to improve the plasticulture system by increasing or maintaining yield while decreasing system input requirements. Using a whole-systems approach, compact geometries were evaluated on an example crop, eggplant (Solanum melongena L.), in the ecologically sensitive but highly productive sub-tropical Everglades region of Florida. Two compact beds, 61 cm (width) x 25 cm (height) and 45 cm x 30 cm, were evaluated against a conventional short and wide bed, 91 cm x 15 cm. The conventional bed used two drip tapes for irrigation and fertigation. The compact beds needed only one tape but produced equivalent yields as the conventional bed. Irrigation, nitrogen, and phosphorus application rates were respectively reduced by 50%, 14%, and 19% in the compact beds. Water and nutrient productivities with the compact beds increased by at least $43 per 10 kL irrigation, $6 per kg nitrogen, and $8 per kg phosphorus applied, representing respective gains of 92%, 11%, and 8% over the conventional bed. Productivity increases highlight how compact beds can make plasticulture more efficient. Shifting to compact beds also brings non-water co-benefits, including reductions in the system's production costs by $560 to $670 ha(-1), carbon footprint by 5% to 10% (reduced fumigant and plastic usage), agricultural plastic waste, and potential detrimental impacts from changed climate. Compact beds provide flood and disease protection by decreasing impervious (mulched) surface area and having extra bed height above the ground. Use of compact beds at the study farm would decrease rainfall intensity in the row middles by 34% and increase the farm's soil water storage capacity by 52% (1.4 cm). Increased storage and infiltration of rainfall will decrease flooding frequency and runoff volume, thereby reducing peak flows in downstream environments. Compact beds also have an added economic benefit for farmers who pay to lease land, as production can be increased through a higher plant population density without changing total mulched surface area. A cultural shift to taller and narrower compact beds makes plasticulture more sustainable as water, nutrient, cost, and energy inputs are reduced without sacrificing yields. Compact beds provide the impetus to transform plasticulture to a futuristic, further-optimized system that is more automated (e.g., chemigation), less labor intensive, and better adapted to climate change for continued economic and environmental viability.

2016

10.13031/trans.59.11408

Idawati, I.; Sasongko, N. A.; Santoso, A. D.; Septiani, M.; Handayani, T.; Sakti, A. Y. N.; Purnamasari, B. D.

Cocoa farmers' characteristics on climate variability and its effects on climate change adaptation strategy

GLOBAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND MANAGEMENT-GJESM

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Climate change has a greater influence on agriculture through local climate variability than global climate patterns. The impact of climate change on agricultural productivity and shifts in crop patterns varies significantly across regions. Its impact is closely tied to the technical abilities of farmers in managing their cocoa farming businesses. Technical skills encompass the proficiency of farmers in adopting adaptive cocoa cultivation techniques for planting, maintaining cocoa plants, as well as handling harvest and postharvest processes. The technical capability is interconnected with factors such as crop dependency on rainfall patterns, availability of infrastructure for quality inputs, soil degradation and fertility, nutrient levels, limited farmers' resources, and technology penetration. Given the significant impact of climate change on cocoa farmers, it becomes crucial to enhance their adaptive capacity to address these challenges. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze the relationship between the characteristics of farmers and their adaptive capacity in responding to the impact of climate change.METHODS: Data were collected from 960 populations from two regencies, 4 districts, and 8 villages using the stratified sampling technique through interviews with 282 respondents. The sample size was determined using the Slovin formula through in-depth interviews with five key informants. The data collected were descriptively and statistically analyzed using the Excel program, which involved generating frequency distribution tables. Furthermore, the Mann-Whitney test, utilizing Statistical Product and Service Solution version 24, was employed to conduct a comparative analysis.FINDINGS: This result showed that the characteristics of farmers in the two areas were relatively the same in terms of age, non-formal education, number of family dependents, and perceptions of the climate. In terms of age, most farmers fell within the mature group of 36-48 years, with an average age of 44.63, considering in low category. The low productive age of farmers (44.63), along with their non-formal education, including training in climate field schools and integrated pest management field schools, as well as the number of dependents and their perceptions of climate change, emerged as significant parameters impacting farmers' decision-making processes. These factors also influenced their ability to cope, adapt, and seek new approaches to manage and mitigate the effects of climate change on their farming operations.CONCLUSION: The relationship between farmers' characteristics and adaptive capacity showed that the larger the land owned by farmers, the higher the managerial adaptability of farmers with lower technical ability.

2024

10.22034/gjesm.2024.01.21

Lockart, Natalie; Willgoose, Garry; Kuczera, George; Kiem, Anthony S.; Chowdhury, A. F. M. Kamal; Manage, Nadeeka Parana; Zhang, Lanying; Twomey, Callum

Case study on the use of dynamically downscaled climate model data for assessing water security in the Lower Hunter region of the eastern seaboard of Australia

JOURNAL OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE EARTH SYSTEMS SCIENCE

A key aim of the Eastern Seaboard Climate Change Initiative (ESCCI) is understanding the effect of climate change on the eastern seaboard of Australia, and the implications for climate change adaptation in this area. The New South Wales (NSW)/Australian Capital Territory (ACT) Regional Climate Modelling project (NARCliM) has produced three dynamically downscaled reanalysis climate datasets along with 12 downscaled general circulation model (GCM) projections of current (1990-2009) and future climate. It is expected that the NARCliM dataset will be used for many climate change impact studies including water security assessment. Therefore, in this study we perform a case study investigation into the usefulness and limitations of using NARCliM data for water security assessment, using the Lower Hunter urban water supply system managed by Hunter Water Corporation. We compare streamflow and reservoir levels simulated using NARCliM rainfall and a gridded historical rainfall dataset (AWAP) and focus our analysis on the differences in the simulated streamflow and reservoir levels. We show that when raw (i.e. not bias-corrected) NARCliM rainfall and potential evapotran-spiration (PET) data is used to simulate streamflow and reservoir storage levels, some of the NARCliM datasets produce unrealistic results when compared with the simulations using AWAP; for example, some NARCliM datasets simulate reservoirs at or near empty while the AWAP reservoir simulations rarely drop below 60%. The bias-corrected NARCliM rainfall (corrected to AWAP) produces estimates of streamflow and reservoir levels that have a closer, but still inconsistent, match with the streamflow and reservoir levels simulated using AWAP directly. The inconsistency between the simulations using bias-corrected rainfall and historical AWAP rainfall is potentially because while bias-correction reduces systematic deviations it does not fix temporal rainfall sequencing issues. Additionally, the NARCliM PET is not bias-corrected and using bias-corrected rainfall with uncorrected PET in hydrological models results in physical inconsistencies in the rainfall-PET relationship and simulated streamflow. We demonstrate that rainfall plays a large role in the streamflow simulations, while PET seems to play a large role in the reasonableness of the simulated reservoir dynamics by determining the evaporation losses from the reservoirs. The downscaled GCM datasets that simulate the greatest average PET for 1990-2009 show reservoirs often (unrealistically) near empty. This study highlights the need to assess the validity of all climate data for the applications required, with a focus on long-term statistics for reservoir modelling and ensuring realism and coherence across all projected variables.

2016

Awhari, Dauda Pius; Bin Jamal, Mohamad Hidayat; Muhammad, Mohd Khairul Idlan; Shahid, Shamsuddin

Bibliometric analysis of global climate change and agricultural production: Trends, gaps and future directions

IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE

Climate change poses a significant threat to global food security, and a comprehensive understanding of its impact on agricultural production is needed. We analysed the Scopus data set between 1993 and 2023. China occupies the leading position in terms of climate change production, and the United States occupies the comprehensive strength position with the largest citation strength output. Notably, a substantial 29% annual publication increase between 2000 and 2015 was noted. Despite prevailing research on specific facets, a pronounced gap exists in global-scale studies focusing on the direct impact of climate change on agricultural production and yield, with a predominant concentration in regional analyses. Collaboration in this area continues to occur within developed nations, but the rate of growth at the international level is relatively low. In addition, the frequency of co-occurrence analysis of keywords revealed that climate change and sustainability are the focal keywords, but yield, food security, irrigation and rice production have yet to be identified. The results of this research will help in designing a policy for water resource management for irrigation planning and an adaptative food security management strategy and provide a feature research guide. Le changement climatique represente une menace importante pour la securite alimentaire mondiale, et il est necessaire de bien comprendre son impact sur la production agricole. Nous avons analyse l'ensemble de donnees Scopus entre 1993 et 2023. La Chine occupe la premiere position en termes de production du changement climatique, et les etats-Unis occupent la position de force complete avec la plus grande sortie de force de citation. Notons notamment une augmentation substantielle de 29% des publications annuelles entre 2000 et 2015. Malgre la predominance des recherches sur des facettes specifiques, il existe un ecart prononce dans les etudes a l'echelle mondiale axees sur l'impact direct du changement climatique sur la production et le rendement agricoles, avec une concentration predominante sur les analyses regionales. La collaboration dans ce domaine se poursuit au sein des pays developpes, mais le taux de croissance au niveau international est relativement faible. En outre, la frequence des analyses de co-occurrence des mots -cles a revele que le changement climatique et la durabilite sont les mots-cles centraux, mais que le rendement, la securite alimentaire, l'irrigation et la production de riz n'ont pas encore ete identifies. Les resultats de cette recherche aideront a concevoir une politique de gestion des ressources en eau pour la planification de l'irrigation et une strategie adaptative de gestion de la securite alimentaire et fourniront un guide de recherche.

2024

10.1002/ird.2950

Levkovska, Lyudmila; Irtyshcheva, Inna; Dubynska, Iryna

CURRENT TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WATER MANAGEMENT COMPLEX: UKRAINIAN REALITIES AND INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE

BALTIC JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC STUDIES

Aim. The ratification of the Paris Agreement by Ukraine envisages an increase in the ability to adapt to the negative effects of climate change, as well as promoting low carbon development so as not to endanger food production. At the same time, water resources, on the one hand, are one of the most vulnerable to climate change components of the environment from the state of which the food security of the country depends directly, and on the other hand, the activity of the water management complex causes the emergence of both direct and indirect carbon footprint. Therefore, an indispensable prerequisite for sustainable low carbon development is the assessment of the carbon footprint of the main sectors of Ukraine's water management complex and the identification of priority measures for their decarbonisation and adaptation to expected climate change. Methods. The methodological basis for the assessment of the carbon footprint of the main sectors of the water management complex was the life cycle method (LCA), by which, based on the open data of the National Inventory of Anthropogenic Emissions from Sources and Absorption by Greenhouse Gas Absorbers in Ukraine and the statistical analysis of the results of previous studies. By means of systematic analysis of the main factors of greenhouse gas emission in the water management complex of Ukraine, the priority directions of its decarbonisation and adaptation to climate change were determined. Results. The estimated carbon footprint of Ukraine's water complex in 2017 was estimated to be 5.15 million tons of CO2-equiv, which was 1.6% of the total greenhouse gas emissions in Ukraine in 2017, and taking into account the potential carbon footprint end-use processes can be increased by up to 3%. Due to the deterioration of the water supply networks, an average of 35% of the supplied water is lost in Ukraine. Reducing network leakage by at least 10% will reduce carbon footprint by 30,000 tons of CO2-equiv annually. The priority areas for decarbonisation of the water management complex should be modernization of water supply and water treatment infrastructure, improvement of energy efficiency of pumping equipment and introduction of drip irrigation, and its adaptation to climate change development of the network of green infrastructure. Conclusions. The low-carbon development of the water management system should include the introduction and coordination of such measures, which, on the one hand, minimize the adverse effects of climate change on water resources and contribute to reducing the carbon footprint of water management activities, and on the other hand, guarantee the achievement of sustainable development goals, in particular for ensuring water and society proper sanitary conditions.

2020

10.30525/2256-0742/2020-6-5-196-202

Teebken, Julia; Mitchell, Nicole; Jacob, Klaus; Heimann, Thorsten

Classifying Social Adaptation Practices to Heat Stress-Learning from Autonomous Adaptations in Two Small Towns in Germany

WEATHER CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Climate change adaptation planning and implementation have proliferated over the past years. However, we still lack an understanding of how society adapts itself outside of policy sectors and as part of what some refer to as autonomous adaptation. The way people respond to risk without deliberate interventions of public actors is not well understood. Given the increasing occurrence of climatic changes that affect our daily lives, the topic is regaining attention with an emphasis on behavioral adaptation. This angle, however, does little to enhance our understanding of how society adapts collectively and which practices and routines groups choose to adopt. This study investigates autonomous heat-stress adaptation efforts in two small towns in Germany. Autonomous heat-stress adaptation is approached through a lens of (social) adaptation practices. Small towns are understudied in adaptation research and have played only a minor role when it comes to public adaptation planning due to their lack of formal resources to develop public adaptation strategies. Based on empirical data, consisting of qualitative problem-centered interviews and a quantitative survey, concrete examples of (social) adaptation practices are identified and classified. The presented classification of practices goes beyond earlier attempts by generating insights on the role politics can play in providing a fruitful ground for enabling autonomous adaptation. The paper emphasizes the need for researchers and decision-makers to take a closer look at the wide variety of social adaptation practices already in place. This discloses insights on public-private adaptation mixes, which could ultimately also lift autonomous adaptation from its ad hoc and reactive nature. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Social adaptation practices are not yet at the center of research and decision-making. We believe that adding practice-based approaches to adaptation governance widens the debate on who is vulnerable and possible coping mechanisms from within society. It shows that vulnerability and adaptation lie in people's everyday actions. We provide a first classification of heat-health adaptation practices according to their heat-health target, the involved individuals and actors, the degree of coordination involved, and the spatial and temporal scales. This classification draws attention to potential governance leverage points to initiate heat-adaptation practices. Focusing more strongly on already-in-use and possible heat-health adaptation practices puts citizens' wants and needs at the center of adaptation governance by including them directly in the adaptation process. This can be of special interest for small towns that want to introduce citizen-based approaches to heat-risk adaptation.

2023

10.1175/WCAS-D-22-0003.1

Tewari, Kushagra; Tewari, Mukul; Niyogi, Dev

Need for considering urban climate change factors on stroke, neurodegenerative diseases, and mood disorders studies

COMPUTATIONAL URBAN SCIENCE

The adverse health impacts of climate change have been well documented. It is increasingly apparent that the impacts are disproportionately higher in urban populations, especially underserved communities. Studies have linked urbanization and air pollution with health impacts, but the exacerbating role of urban heat islands (UHI) in the context of neurodegenerative diseases has not been well addressed. The complex interplay between climate change, local urban air pollution, urbanization, and a rising population in cities has led to the byproduct of increased heat stress in urban areas. Some urban neighborhoods with poor infrastructure can have excessive heat even after sunset, increasing internal body temperature and leading to hyperthermic conditions. Such conditions can put individuals at higher risk of stroke by creating a persistent neuroinflammatory state, including, in some instances, Alzheimer's Disease (AD) phenotypes. Components of the AD phenotype, such as amyloid beta plaques, can disrupt long-term potentiation (LTP) and long-term depression (LTD), which can negatively alter the mesolimbic function and thus contribute to the pathogenesis of mood disorders. Furthermore, although a link has not previously been established between heat and Parkinson's Disease (PD), it can be postulated that neuroinflammation and cell death can contribute to mitochondrial dysfunction and thus lead to Lewy Body formation, which is a hallmark of PD. Such postulations are currently being presented in the emerging field of 'neurourbanism'. This study highlights that: (i) the impact of urban climate, air pollution and urbanization on the pathogenesis of neurodegenerative diseases and mood disorders is an area that needs further investigation; (ii) urban climate- health studies need to consider the heterogeneity in the urban environment and the impact it has on the UHI. In that, a clear need exists to go beyond the use of airport-based representative climate data to a consideration of more spatially explicit, high-resolution environmental datasets for such health studies, especially as they pertain to the development of locally-relevant climate adaptive health solutions. Recent advances in the development of super-resolution (downscaled climate) datasets using computational tools such as convolution neural networks (CNNs) and other machine learning approaches, as well as the emergence of urban field labs that generate spatially explicit temperature and other environmental datasets across different city neighborhoods, will continue to become important. Future climate - health studies need to develop strategies to benefit from such urban climate datasets that can aid the creation of localized, effective public health assessments and solutions.

2023

10.1007/s43762-023-00079-w

Qiu, Hui; Zhou, Tianjun; Chen, Xiaolong; Wu, Bo; Jiang, Jie

Understanding the Diversity of CMIP6 Models in the Projection of Precipitation Over Tibetan Plateau

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

A reliable projection of precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is crucial for climate adaptation activities in this climate-sensitive region, but existing studies show a large spread in magnitude. Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models, we investigate the TP summer precipitation projection and understand the sources of uncertainty. The results show that the TP exhibits a profound wetting trend throughout the 21st century, with precipitation increasing by 0.64 +/- 0.06 mm day-1 during 2050-2099 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The moisture budget analysis indicates that the thermodynamical response to global warming determines the precipitation increase. However, both the thermodynamical and dynamical components contribute to the uncertainty of precipitation projection. The inter-model spread of the thermodynamic term arises from divergent global mean warming, which is closely related to model climate sensitivity. The uncertainty of the dynamic component is driven by model-dependent circulation changes induced by different equatorial Pacific warming rates. The precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is crucial for local and downstream ecosystems, influencing millions of people. An accurate projection of future precipitation change is a prerequisite for climate change adaptation activities. Current existing studies show a large spread in the future changes of precipitation over the TP, but the reasons remain inconclusive. Here, we unravel the diversity of climate models in the precipitation projection over the TP by quantifying the contributions of the thermodynamical process related to global warming and the dynamical process related to atmospheric circulation change. While the enhancement of precipitation in the multi-model ensemble mean is dominated by the thermodynamical response, both the thermodynamical and dynamical components are found to be responsible for the uncertainty of precipitation projection. The thermodynamical uncertainty is due to divergent global mean warming, which is closely associated with climate sensitivity, implying that models projecting a warmer climate also tend to project a stronger thermodynamical change. The uncertainty of the dynamic component is driven by air circulation changes induced by the equatorial Pacific warming pattern, which further affects the water vapor transport to the TP. Future projection of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) summer precipitation exhibits a large inter-model spread in the magnitude of moistening trend The uncertainty of precipitation projection arises from both the thermodynamical and dynamical process The thermodynamical uncertainty is related to climate sensitivity, while the dynamical spread is driven by the equatorial Pacific warming

2024

10.1029/2023GL106553

Zeren, Gongbu; Tan, Jing; Zhang, Qian; Qiuying, Bading

Rebuilding rural community cooperative institutions and their role in herder adaptation to climate change

CLIMATE POLICY

Many studies have emphasized the importance of community-based natural resource management institutions in adapting to climate change and responding to the global shift towards individualized land tenure regimes. However, few have reported on the innovative institutions developed by some rural communities to rebuild community cooperation and rural adaptive capacity. This paper draws on four comparative cases from the Tibetan Plateau to assess how locally developed community cooperative institutions mediate herders' access to markets and resources to foster adaptive capacity and adaptation in response to snow-related catastrophes. Results demonstrate that community cooperative institutions are more effective in improving adaptive capacity than the market-based adaptation strategies that are the predetermined outcome of individualized tenure regimes. When such cooperative institutions exist, community members are able to apply both household and community collective adaptation strategies, resulting in better livelihood outcomes. Community cooperative institutions effectively address individual needs and priorities by clarifying entitlements and market-based networks. They rebuild community collective action and cooperative business entities that improve herders' ability to access resources and markets more equally by distributing benefits to all community members. This study concludes that following the establishment of individualized land tenure regimes, rebuilding community cooperation necessitates hybridization of property rights arrangements, reformed institutions, and social networks operating across levels of governance to facilitate interdependent interactions between collective and individual adaptation strategies. Such community cooperation offers new opportunities for improving adaptive capacity in pastoral regions and elsewhere.Key policy insightsMarket-based institutions and adaptation strategies are significant components of climate adaptation policies in pastoral and agricultural regions, though they face equity and collective action-building challenges.Adaptative capacity should be understood as a function of cross-level interactions among individuals, community organizations, and external stakeholders.These cases of community cooperative institutions offer new insights into coordinating the interactions between individual-level and community-level adaptation practices.Community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) institutions can restore collective management of natural resources and stimulate formal economic cooperation to build bridging networks with other stakeholders; this generates opportunities for all community members to more broadly access resources and markets to improve adaptive capacity.

2023

10.1080/14693062.2023.2184763

Descheemaeker, Katrien; Zijlstra, Mink; Masikati, Patricia; Crespo, Olivier; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee

Effects of climate change and adaptation on the livestock component of mixed farming systems: A modelling study from semi-arid Zimbabwe

AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS

Large uncertainties about the impacts of climate change and adaptation options on the livestock component of heterogeneous African fanning systems hamper tailored decision making towards climate-smart agriculture. This study addressed this knowledge gap through the development and use of a dynamic modelling framework integrating climate, crop, pasture and livestock models. The framework was applied to a population of 91 farms located in semi-arid Zimbabwe to assess effects on livestock production resulting from climate change and management interventions. Climate scenarios representing relative cool-wet, hot-dry and middle conditions by mid-century (2040-2070) for two representative concentration pathways were compared with the baseline climate. On-farm fodder resources and rangeland grass production were simulated with the crop model APSIM and the pasture model GRASP respectively. The simulated fodder availability was used in the livestock model LIVSIM to generate various production indicators including milk, offtake, mortality, manure, and net revenue. We investigated the effects of two adaptation packages targeting soil fertility management and crop diversification and quantified the sensitivity to climate change of both current and improved systems. Livestock productivity was constrained by dry-season feed gaps, which were particularly severe for crude protein and caused by the reliance on rangeland grazing and crop residues, both of low quality in the dry season. Effects on grass and stover production depended on the climate scenario and the crop, but year-to-year variation generally increased. Relative changes in livestock net revenue compared to the baseline climate varied from a 6% increase to a 43% decrease, and the proportion of farmers negatively affected varied from 20% to 100%, depending on the climate scenario. Adverse effects of climate change on average livestock production usually coincided with increased year-to-year variability and risk. Farms with larger stocking density faced more severe feed gaps and were more sensitive to climate change than less densely stocked farms. The first adaptation package resulted in increased stover production and a small increase in livestock productivity. The inclusion of grain and forage legumes with the second package increased milk productivity and net revenues more profoundly by 30%. This was attributed to the alleviation of dry-season feed gaps, which also reduced the sensitivity to climate change compared to the current system. Clearly, individual farms were affected differently by climate change and by improved farm management, illustrating that disaggregated impact assessments are needed to effectively inform decision making towards climate change adaptation.

2018

10.1016/j.agsy.2017.05.004

Carauta, Marcelo; Parussis, Julia; Hampf, Anna; Libera, Affonso; Berger, Thomas

No more double cropping in Mato Grosso, Brazil? Evaluating the potential impact of climate change on the profitability of farm systems

AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS

CONTEXT: Farmers in the federal state of Mato Grosso contribute about one-third of national grain production in Brazil. Given their key role in providing food and feed for fast-growing world demand, major shocks on Mato Grosso's farm holdings can lead to devastating consequences for vulnerable consumers and producers inside and outside Brazil. Research has shown that rising temperature and water stress threaten the agricultural productivity of Mato Grosso's rain-fed farm production systems. Failure of current production systems on existing croplands may also foster agricultural expansion and increase pressure on the remaining native forest. Balancing agricultural production and environmental protection is of particular concern in Mato Grosso because more than half of its territory is in the Amazon Rainforest biome. The tight schedule of field activities within double cropping systems reduces farmers' ability to adapt to climate change and manage shocks. The increasing uncertainty about climate change and price volatility further complicate farmers' decision-making. OBJECTIVE: This study evaluates the impact of two climate change scenarios on the profitability of double cropping systems, considering not only climate variability but also economic uncertainties faced at the farm level. METHODS: Our modeling system combines future climate projections with biophysical and bioeconomic models. We used high-performance computing with many compute nodes and large shared memory to account for the large heterogeneity of possible management options and farm-gate prices. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Simulation results indicate that farmers in Mato Grosso could be exposed to significantly lower economic returns, with a future gross margin reduction of 69% on average compared to current levels. Moreover, the number of profitable cropping alternatives could drop by 18% on average. According to our simulations, climate impacts on gross margins are likely to differ in Mato Grosso, with the Southeast macro-region being the most affected and the South Central region the least. The simulation results also revealed a higher risk of losses during the second cropping season. Double-cropping systems with cotton were the most impacted by changing climatic conditions, and sunflower the least. SIGNIFICANCE: This study revealed that climate change might negatively affect double-cropping systems in the Southern Amazon due to reduced annual precipitation, a shortening of the rainy season, and shifts in the rainy season's onset and cessation dates. Our bioeconomic simulations further suggest that farmers in Mato Grosso could lose one of their most significant comparative advantages, namely the possibility of harvesting two crops in one cropping season.

2021

10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103104

Short, C. Alan; Renganathan, Giridharan; Lomas, Kevin J.

A medium-rise 1970s maternity hospital in the east of England: Resilience and adaptation to climate change

BUILDING SERVICES ENGINEERING RESEARCH & TECHNOLOGY

The late 1970s design for the Rosie Maternity Hospital on the Addenbrookes campus in Cambridge is a recurring type across the UK National Health Service, a framed three-storey courtyard configuration in brick masonry. It was selected as a case study project for the Design and Delivery of Robust Hospitals in a Changing Climate' project, pursuing the methodology developed for that research. Temperature data were collected in representative spaces within the hospital, over a two-year period. These revealed overheating in mild conditions relative to an observed 24? threshold for sleep but concealed within the customary 28? threshold marking the upper limit of acceptable conditions. The building was modelled using current climate data to predict 2010 conditions. The model was then calibrated against the observed 2010 data and used to predict the likely internal temperatures in current and 2030s. The results indicated an increase in peak temperatures. Four adaptive intervention schemes were subsequently developed: an enlightened' industry standard Passivhaus'-type option providing superinsulation, sealed glazing and heat recovery; a lower technology-based scheme promoting natural cross-ventilation by providing greater opening glazing area, opening up the plan, sunshading and additional insulation; an enhanced natural ventilation scheme glazing over the courtyards to provide supply air winter gardens, and an advanced natural ventilation option pursuing passive downdraught cooling. All four schemes were modelled using the projected current and 2030s weather data and their performance was compared. The schemes were fully costed to yield relative value for money' guidance to National Health Service Trusts. Practical application: The Heat wave Plan for England 2014 warns National Health Service (NHS) organisations of the risks to patients, particularly the very young, the elderly and the seriously ill, from extreme summer heat events.(1) The Chief Medical Officer in her introduction challenges each NHS locality to plan well in advance of hot spells, as appropriate. This paper describes the likely extent of overheating risk and a series of potential adaptation plans for a recurring NHS hospital building type. As a consequence, estates and facilities decision makers in NHS organisations and Public Health England officers charged with the mitigation of risk resulting from overheating of wards and clinical spaces will benefit directly in their necessary decision making from the findings. Policy makers in the Department of Health and policy advisors in the NHS Sustainable Development Unit and the Climate Change Committee Adaptation Sub-Committee will benefit from the evidence presented in advising the NHS and Department of Health.

2015

10.1177/0143624414567544

Pappalardo, Salvatore Eugenio; Zanetti, Carlo; Todeschi, Valeria

Mapping urban heat islands and heat-related risk during heat waves from a climate justice perspective: A case study in the municipality of Padua (Italy) for inclusive adaptation policies

LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING

Climate change has led to a dramatic increase in extreme events worldwide. Predictions for a + 1.5 degrees C world indicate that 13.8% of the global population will be exposed to heat waves (HWs), a proportion rising to 36.9% in a + 2 degrees C scenario. At present, about 9.6 M people in the EU and UK are exposed to extreme heat every year. Overheating has various impacts on cities, including urban infrastructure failures and changes in ecological processes. However, scarce attention is currently paid to the distribution of HWs impacts and the differential vulnerabilities of different social groups, raising the issue of climate justice in cities. HWs directly impact the health of the most vulnerable social groups resulting in an increase in mortality and morbidity rates. This research focuses on the city of Padua (Italy) as a pilot study to assess the effects of urban HWs and heat islands (UHI) combined. By framing the unequal spatial distribution of socially vulnerable groups, this study aims to i) provide a replicable spatially explicit open-access methodology to assess the heat-related risk of UHI; ii) propose the first climate justice heat-related risk index to be adopted in inclusive and just adaptation plans. Specifically, it aims to i) identify HWs and map critical hotspots during summer 2022 at suburban scale; ii) assess the spatial correlations among impervious areas and UHI; iii) map the climate risk to vulnerable social groups; and iv) propose a global climate justice risk index for all the vulnerable groups considered. Images from Landsat 8-9 were processed, and territorial data were acquired from public databases. It was found that three extreme HWs hit Padua in summer 2022, on 2-7 June, 21-23 July, and 4-8 August, when maximum temperatures were 35.1 degrees C, 36.1 degrees C, and 35.8 degrees C, respectively. The intensity and magnitude of UHIs were considerable, with land surface temperatures of 33.8 degrees C on average (& sigma; = 1.7, min = 27.9, max = 41.4). UHI intensity reached 5-8 degrees C of difference with rural contexts, mainly in strongly urbanized sectors. Ordinary least squares regression indicated a positive correlation with impervious surfaces, with a & beta; coefficient showing an average increase of 0.3 degrees C per 10% of soil sealing. Six different hotspots were identified both in industrial areas and within the city centre. However, the integrated climate risk analyses highlight that most critical areas are in sectors where there is a large number of the elderly, migrants, children, and low-income households. Our findings reveal the need for urgent heat island mitigation measures and that the distributive dimension of climate justice should be respected in adaptation planning.

2023

10.1016/j.landurbplan.2023.104831

Nijhuis, Steffen

FUTURE-PROOFING ESTATE LANDSCAPES A REGIONAL DESIGN APPROACH FOR HISTORICAL COUNTRY ESTATES IN A LANDSCAPE CONTEXT

BULLETIN KNOB

Climate change and urbanization have substantial ramifications for the management and protection of cultural-historical landscapes. This is especially true for historical estate landscapes - landscapes whose character is defined by several historical castles, country houses (along with their gardens and parks), and landed estates - where climate change adaptation constitutes a major task. Issues of concern include an excess or shortage of water and changes to vegetation as a result of rising temperatures. That pressure is compounded by increasing urbanization and the associated recreational needs. These landscapes are also susceptible to spatial fragmentation due to urbanization, changes in ownership, changes in function, and so on. Combatting these pressures calls for a future-oriented design approach that deals sensitively with historically valuable landscape characteristics. It involves safeguarding the spatial quality of estate landscapes by striking a new balance between utility value (economic exploitation), amenity value (identity and familiarity), and future value (ecological sustainability). Such is the complexity of the task that a regional perspective is required in order to fully comprehend the cohesion and systemic relations between individual country estates and to develop a common basis for collaboration. This article proposes a landscape-based regional design approach aimed at understanding and designing future-proof estate landscapes. It details a preservation-through-development strategy based on spatial development in sympathy with historical landscapes structures in a process of meaningful stakeholder involvement. Key to this process is collaboration and co-creation with owners, experts, policy advisers and others. Design-based research is employed as a method for addressing the complex spatial tasks facing estate landscapes in an integrated and creative manner. Spatial design, at every level of scale, becomes an instrument for working out development strategies and principles for context-specific landscape formation. But also for highlighting possible solutions that can contribute to the protection and development of historical estate landscapes. In other words, this is not about opposing change or locking up the existing landscape, but about creating new landscape qualities through well-designed new developments. This coincides with a collaborative process in which stakeholders jointly weigh the pros and cons, learn and come up with solutions. The combination of substance, involvement and process makes the landscape-based regional design approach a powerful method for increasing the resilience and adaptability of the estate landscape and in so doing making this landscape future-proof.

2021

Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Dimitroulopoulou, Chrysanthi; Thornes, John; Lai, Ka-Man; Taylor, Jonathon; Myers, Isabella; Heaviside, Clare; Mavrogianni, Anna; Shrubsole, Clive; Chalabi, Zaid; Davies, Michael; Wilkinson, Paul

Impact of climate change on the domestic indoor environment and associated health risks in the UK

ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL

There is growing evidence that projected climate change has the potential to significantly affect public health. In the UK, much of this impact is likely to arise by amplifying existing risks related to heat exposure, flooding, and chemical and biological contamination in buildings. Identifying the health effects of climate change on the indoor environment, and risks and opportunities related to climate change adaptation and mitigation, can help protect public health. We explored a range of health risks in the domestic indoor environment related to climate change, as well as the potential health benefits and unintended harmful effects of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies in the UK housing sector. We reviewed relevant scientific literature, focusing on housing-related health effects in the UK likely to arise through either direct or indirect mechanisms of climate change or mitigation and adaptation measures in the built environment. We considered the following categories of effect: (i)indoor temperatures, (ii) indoor air quality, (iii) indoor allergens and infections, and (iv) flood damage and water contamination. Climate change may exacerbate health risks and inequalities across these categories and in a variety of ways, if adequate adaptation measures are not taken. Certain changes to the indoor environment can affect indoor air quality or promote the growth and propagation of pathogenic organisms. Measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions have the potential for ancillary public health benefits including reductions in health burdens related heat and cold, indoor exposure to air pollution derived from outdoor sources, and mould growth. However, increasing airtightness of dwellings in pursuit of energy efficiency could also have negative effects by increasing concentrations of pollutants (such as PM2.5, CO and radon) derived from indoor or ground sources, and biological contamination. These effects can largely be ameliorated by mechanical ventilation with heat recovery (MVHR) and air filtration, where such solution is feasible and when the system is properly installed, operated and maintained. Groups at high risk of these adverse health effects include the elderly (especially those living on their own), individuals with pre-existing illnesses, people living in overcrowded accommodation, and the socio-economically deprived. A better understanding of how current and emerging building infrastructure design, construction, and materials may affect health in the context of climate change and mitigation and adaptation measures is needed in the UK and other high income countries. Long-term, energy efficient building design interventions, ensuring adequate ventilation, need to be promoted.

2015

10.1016/j.envint.2015.09.010

Chen, Hsiao-Min; Kuo, Tsai-Chi; Chen, Ju-Long

Impacts on the ESG and financial performances of companies in the manufacturing industry based on the climate change related risks

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION

In the face of global systemic risks brought about by climate change, government organizations, civil societies, and enterprises globally have begun standardizing and implementing relevant contingency measures to mitigate or adapt to climate change. For example, Take SDG 13 climate action or implement various strategies for low -carbon transformation. In addition to responding to climate change commitments, these major changes have also boosted the rating scores of their ESG performance indicators, which inevitably have a certain degree of impact on their financial performance. Using the ESG performance indicators and financial data of 100 manufacturing firms worldwide from 2005 to 2020, this study constructs a multilevel quadratic growth model to analyze and investigate the effects of different types of ownership structure as well as disclosure of climate change-related risks and opportunities (CCR risks) on ESG and financial performance indicators among manufacturing industry firms. The findings of this study showed that different ownership structures, the degree of disclosure of climate change-related risks and opportunities (CCR risks), and the number of environmental performance indicators had no multiplicative effect on the financial performance of manufacturing companies. Instead, there was a positive, but negatively moderating, effect on financial performance. When the investigated enterprises attached higher importance to climate change issues and thus strengthened investments in, and implementation of, corresponding environmental performance indicators, the positive impact of environmental performance on financial performance gradually diminished to the point of negative impact, thereby affecting companies' operating profits. This was especially the case for private enterprises. However, disclosure of climate change-related risks and opportunities has a significant positive effect on financial performance among such firms. In addition, private firms and social performance indicators had a negative, but positively moderating, effect on financial performance. This meant that, upon investigation, the private enterprises made more effort to invest in and implement social performance indicators, and the impact on financial performance gradually increased and eventually shifted from negative to positive. Environmental performance indicators and financial performance were generally found to exhibit a distinctly positive effect.In summary, the results of this study can be used as a reference for firm managers to enhance their decision -making related to actions, strategies, and planning in response to climate change-related risks and opportunities under the framework of ESG performance indicators.

2022

10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.134951

Chagnaud, G.; Panthot, G.; Vischel, T.; Lebel, T.

Capturing and Attributing the Rainfall Regime Intensification in the West African Sahel with CMIP6 Models

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Rainfall in the Sahel is extremely variable on daily to multidecadal time scales, challenging climate models to realistically simulate its past and future evolution and questioning their relevance for defining suitable climate change adaptation strategies. Improving confidence in climate models may be achieved by (i) evaluating their capacity for repro-ducing observed climatic evolution and (ii) attributing these evolutions. Moreover, there is a need to consider relevant cli-matic indicators, from an end-user point of view. Fully coupled (CMIP6-AOGCM) models with idealized detection and attribution forcings (DAMIP) as well as atmosphere-only simulations (AMIP) are used to investigate the respective roles of external forcing factors and internal climate variability in the observed intensification of the Sahelian rainfall regime. We show that CMIP6 models contain signs of the intensification of the rainfall regime as detected over the past 35 years from a regional daily observations network. Both the increase in intensity and occurrence of wet days, as well as that of ex-treme daily rainfall, are remarkably well reproduced by historical simulations incorporating anthropogenic forcing factors, with anthropogenic aerosols contributing the largest share of this trend. Though more strongly affected by model structure uncertainty, the greenhouse gas forcing also displays noticeably robust features. Models are shown to fail at simulating the observed dry extreme evolution. These findings give incentive for further investigating the underlying physical mechanisms that drive the Sahelian rainfall regime evolution at regional to subregional scales. Furthermore, future hydroclimatic trajec-tories in the Sahel should be explored, though particular caution is required as to which rainfall indicator to consider. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: The rainfall regime at a particular location is crucial to human and ecosystem liveli-hoods. Changes in rainfall regime characteristics on multidecadal time scales result from both the effects of external forcing factors on the climate and of its internal variability, with this latter aspect becoming more prominent on small spatial scales. In this study, several state-of-the-art climate simulations are used to document the rainfall regime evolu-tion of the past 65 years in the Sahel, in terms of amplitude, timing, and causes. It is shown that large-scale anthropo-genic factors have a substantial imprint, modulated to some extent by internal variability. These findings demonstrate that coarse-resolution climate models are a well-suited tool to investigate the recent intensification of rainfall in the Sahel, and may provide valuable information for climate change adaptation planning.

2023

10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0412.1

Sun, Ao; Huang, Yong; Huang, Chen

Cascading failure mechanism of major drainage system in mountainous city: Taking the basin of the main urban area of Chongqing as an example, China

ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS

Failure of major drainage systems is almost always accompanied by waterlogging. Understanding the operation and failure mechanism of major drainage systems is an important prerequisite for understanding and managing waterlogging. The natural and artificial environments in mountainous cities are more complex, and the major drainage system, as an open system for excessive surface runoff discharge and storage, is more prone to local overload and cascading failure. Existing theories and methods are difficult to explain and analyze the cascading failure characteristics and principles of major drainage systems in mountainous cities. Based on the complex network technology and the principle of runoff balance, the cascade failure model of major drainage system was constructed, and the characteristics and laws of cascade failure under six kinds of terrain, six kinds of short duration rainstorm and two kinds of surface environments were quantitatively analyzed. Research has found that the cascading failure of major drainage systems and waterlogging in mountainous cities should be the same phenomenon from different perspectives, and the simulated matching degree between the two can reach 79.5%. Meanwhile, 456 potential waterlogging locations were discovered in the study area, which is much larger than the actual 73 locations. When urban construction and rainfall conditions change, these unstable potential waterlogging locations are easily apparent. Among them, terrain is the main factor restricting the cascading failure of major drainage systems. Low lying valley areas often quickly accumulate a large amount of overflow, while flat areas are prone to overflow spreading to the surrounding areas; Slope areas are not prone to overflow, but are prone to local flooding. The change of short duration rainstorm and the difference of surface environmental openness will further interfere with the cascade failure of the major drainage system. The longer the return period of the short duration rainstorm or the increase of the peak value of the rainfall pattern, the greater the discharge and storage pressure of the major drainage system per unit time, resulting in intensified waterlogging. The open and unobstructed surface environment will lead to the small-scale spread of waterlogging, but this will significantly reduce the overall degree of waterlogging in the late rainstorm. The study revealed the spatiotemporal principles and basic laws of cascading failure of major drainage systems in mountainous cities. The conclusion is helpful for mountainous cities to formulate urban construction management strategies and climate change adaptation strategies, and to cope with current and future potential waterlogging disasters.

2024

10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.111353

Wang, Shengping; Szeles, Borbala; Krammer, Carmen; Schmaltz, Elmar; Song, Kepeng; Li, Yifan; Zhang, Zhiqiang; Bloeschl, Gunter; Strauss, Peter

Agricultural intensification vs. climate change: what drives long-term changes in sediment load?

HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES

Climate change and agricultural intensification are expected to increase soil erosion and sediment production from arable land in many regions. However, to date, most studies have been based on short-term monitoring and/or modeling, making it difficult to assess their reliability in terms of estimating long-term changes. We present the results of a unique data set consisting of measurements of sediment loads from a 60 ha catchment - the Hydrological Open Air Laboratory (HOAL) - in Petzenkirchen, Austria, which was observed periodically over a time period spanning 72 years. Specifically, we compare Period I (1946-1954) and Period II (2002-2017) by fitting sediment rating curves (SRCs) for the growth and dormant seasons for each of the periods. The results suggest a significant increase in sediment loads from Period I to Period II, with an average of 5.8 +/- 3.8 to 60.0 +/- 140.0 t yr(-1). The sediment flux changed mainly due to a shift in the SRCs, given that the mean daily discharge significantly decreased from 5.0 +/- 14.5 L s-1 for Period I to 3.8 +/- 6.6 L s(-1) for Period II. The slopes of the SRCs for the growing season and the dormant season of Period I were 0.3 and 0.8, respectively, whereas they were 1.6 and 1.7 for Period II, respectively. Climate change, considered in terms of rainfall erosivity, was not responsible for this shift, because erosivity decreased by 30.4 % from the dormant season of Period I to that of Period II, and no significant difference was found between the growing seasons of periods I and II. However, the change in sediment flux can be explained by land use and land cover change (LUCC) and the change in land structure (i.e., the organization of land parcels). Under low- and median-streamflow conditions, the land structure in Period II (i.e., the parcel effect) had no apparent influence on sediment yield. With increasing streamflow, it became more important in controlling sediment yield, as a result of an enhanced sediment connectivity in the landscape, leading to a dominant role under high-flow conditions. The increase in crops that make the landscape prone to erosion and the change in land uses between periods I and II led to an increase in sediment flux, although its relevance was surpassed by the effect of parcel structure change under high-flow conditions. We conclude that LUCC and land structure change should be accounted for when assessing sediment flux changes. Especially under high-flow conditions, land structure change substantially altered sediment fluxes, which is most relevant for long-term sediment loads and land degradation. Therefore, increased attention to improving land structure is needed in climate adaptation and agricultural catchment management.

2022

10.5194/hess-26-3021-2022

Rahman, Md. Siddikur; Overgaard, Hans J.; Pientong, Chamsai; Mayxay, Mayfong; Ekalaksananan, Tipaya; Aromseree, Sirinart; Phanthanawiboon, Supranee; Zafar, Sumaira; Shipin, Oleg; Paul, Richard E.; Phommachanh, Sysavanh; Pongvongsa, Tiengkham; Vannavong, Nanthasane; Haque, Ubydul

Knowledge, attitudes, and practices on climate change and dengue in Lao People's Democratic Republic and Thailand

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH

Background: Dengue is linked with climate change in tropical and sub-tropical countries including the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Laos) and Thailand. Knowledge about these issues and preventive measures can affect the incidence and outbreak risk of dengue. Therefore, the present study was conducted to determine the knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) among urban and rural communities and government officials about climate change and dengue in Laos and Thailand. Methods: A cross-sectional KAP survey about climate change and dengue were conducted in 360 households in Laos (180 urban and 180 rural), 359 households in Thailand (179 urban and 180 rural), and 20 government officials (10 in each country) using structured questionnaires. Data analysis was undertaken using descriptive methods, principal component analysis (PCA), Chi-square test or Fisher's exact test (as appropriate), and logistic regression. Results: Significant differences among the selected communities in both countries were found in terms of household participant's age, level of education, socioeconomic status, attitude level of climate change and KAP level of dengue (P < 0.05; 95% CI). Overall, participants' KAP about climate change and dengue were low except the attitude level for dengue in both countries. The level of awareness among government officials regarding the climatic relationship with dengue was also low. In Lao households, participants' knowledge about climate change and dengue was significantly associated with the level of education and socioeconomic status (SES) (P < 0.01). Their attitudes towards climate change and dengue were associated with educational level and internet use (P < 0.05). Householders' climate change related practices were associated with SES (P < 0.01) and dengue related practices were associated with educational level, SES, previous dengue experience and internet use (P < 0.01). In Thailand, participants' knowledge about climate change was associated with the level of education and SES (P < 0.01). Their attitudes towards climate change were associated with residence status (urban/rural) and internet use (P < 0.05); climate change related practices were associated with educational level and SES (P < 0.05). Dengue related knowledge of participants was associated with SES and previous dengue experience (P < 0.05); participants' dengue related attitudes and practices were associated with educational level (P < 0.01). Conclusion: The findings call for urgently needed integrated awareness programs to increase KAP levels regarding climate change adaptation, mitigation and dengue prevention to improve the health and welfare of people in these two countries, and similar dengue-endemic countries.

2021

10.1016/j.envres.2020.110509

Henneron, Ludovic; Aubert, Michael; Bureau, Fabrice; Dumas, Yann; Ningre, Francois; Perret, Sandrine; Richter, Claudine; Balandier, Philippe; Chauvat, Matthieu

Forest management adaptation to climate change: a Cornelian dilemma between drought resistance and soil macro-detritivore functional diversity

JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY

Global warming induces new constraints on forest ecosystems and requires forest management adaptation. The reduction in stand density is currently debated as a potential tool to face increasing summer drought risk by improving forest resistance to climate change-induced tree mortality. However, few studies have yet assessed the impacts of this management change on soil biodiversity. We conducted a large-scale, multi-site assessment of the response of soil macro-detritivore assemblages and soil functioning to experimental manipulations of stand density. A total of 33 stands were studied covering a wide gradient of stand density, that is stand basal area from 25 to 437m(2)ha(-1), stand age, that is 18-171years old, and local abiotic context. We observed contrasting responses as a function of both taxonomic and functional groupings. Exploratory analysis using causal diagrams, that is path analysis, highlights that these changes were mainly related to alterations in understorey vegetation, microclimatic and soil pH conditions. The response of soil macro-detritivore assemblages to stand density manipulation was consistent over the gradient of stand ages. Among the litter-dwelling macro-detritivores, millipede abundance and diversity decreased with stand density reduction, while woodlice and epigeic earthworms were unaffected. Further, a shift in soil-dwelling earthworm community composition was observed in mull stands. Endogeic earthworm abundance showed a sharp increase with stand density reduction, which translated into an increase in soil respiration. In contrast, anecic earthworm abundance decreased and was strongly associated with a decline of the rate of forest floor turnover.Synthesis and applications. Our study provides strong evidence that reductions of stand density will have substantial impacts on soil macro-detritivore assemblages and cascading effects on soil functioning, particularly in mull stands. Managing stand density of oak forests at an intermediate level, that is 25m(2)ha(-1), appears to be best to optimize the trade-off between improving forest resistance to climate change and ensuring the conservation of functional diversity to preserve forest ecosystem functioning and stability. Our study provides strong evidence that reductions of stand density will have substantial impacts on soil macro-detritivore assemblages and cascading effects on soil functioning, particularly in mull stands. Managing stand density of oak forests at an intermediate level, that is 25m(2)ha(-1), appears to be best to optimize the trade-off between improving forest resistance to climate change and ensuring the conservation of functional diversity to preserve forest ecosystem functioning and stability.

2015

10.1111/1365-2664.12440

Dany, Va; Bowen, Kathryn J.; Miller, Fiona

Assessing the institutional capacity to adapt to climate change: a case study in the Cambodian health and water sectors

CLIMATE POLICY

Institutional capacity is an important element for climate change adaptation (CCA) and the development of such capacity is a great challenge in a Least Developed Country like Cambodia where resources are limited. An important first step to increasing capacity is via an understanding of the level of existing capacity; future priorities can then be subsequently identified. This study aimed to assess the capacity of organizations to implement climate change activities in Cambodia in order to provide such a basis for building capacity. Four elements of capacity were investigated in this research: (1) financial resources, (2) cooperation and coordination of stakeholders, (3) availability and quality of information on vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, and (4) the level of understanding of climate change vulnerability and adaptation. The data were collected through semistructured interviews with a wide range of government and non-government informants across a number of sectors. Results of the study showed that informants perceived capacity for CCA to be very constrained, especially in terms of financial resources and cooperation, and addressing these factors was ranked as the highest climate change capacity priority. Institutional capacity constraints were considered to relate more generally to weak governance of CCA. In light of our research findings, the absence of local higher education institutions in CCA activities should be addressed. The support of such institutions would provide an important mechanism to progress both capacity development as well as partnerships and coordination between different types of organizations and relevant sectors. Policy relevance Capacity for CCA within Cambodian health and water sectors was perceived to be very constrained across a range of interdependent factors. Increasing funding was ranked as the highest priority for building capacity for CCA; however, governance factors such as 'improved cooperation' were also ranked highly. Improving stakeholders' awareness of the availability of adaptation funds and resources, and their responsiveness to funding criteria, is an important implication of our research, as is improving the mobilization of local resources and the private sector. To address the issue of weak cooperation among stakeholders, improving the coordination function of the National Climate Change Committee (NCCC) regarding stakeholder engagement and capacity building is crucial. Ensuring that CCA activities are based on sound information and knowledge from across different disciplines and, importantly, include the perspectives of vulnerable people themselves, ultimately underpins and supports the realization of the above priorities.

2015

10.1080/14693062.2014.937385

Chisita, Collence Takaingenhamo; Fombad, Madelien C.

Knowledge sharing to support climate change adaptation in Zimbabwe Views from selected climate action organisations

VINE JOURNAL OF INFORMATION AND KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

Purpose Knowledge sharing for evidence-based climate change adaptation is key to reducing vulnerabilities. The disastrous effects of the recent tropical cyclone Idai in Zimbabwe's eastern highlands, whereby lives and livelihoods were destroyed, calls for fundamental rethinking on how knowledge sharing can be useful in reducing vulnerabilities. This study aims to examine how knowledge sharing practices among selected climate action organisations can support positive results in evidence-based climate change adaptation in Zimbabwe and recommends a strategy to enhance knowledge sharing for evidence-based climate change adaptation. Design/methodology/approach The researcher opted for a qualitative research methodology, and interviews were conducted with research participants to get in-depth information. The target population for the research is drawn from three climate change organisations in Zimbabwe. These participants were chosen because of their direct involvement in climate change adaptation and mitigation. Purposive sampling was used because it was considered an easy and informal method to reach the target population. The responses were coded and readied for analysis. Categories for analysis were also determined and described. The next section focuses on the presentation and interpretation of the responses. Findings The study found out that even though there is evidence of knowledge sharing in the selected organisations, there was a need for a strategy that integrates the efforts of all climate action organisation to realise successful climate change adaptation. Successful climate change adaptation requires an integrative force in the form of a strategy that supports knowledge sharing. The strategy breaks the silo mode of operation by bringing together all stakeholders through knowledge sharing. Research limitations/implications The research study was unique to the Zimbabwean climate change and adaptation context and only a purposive sampling of participants representing three climate change action was feasible. Social implications The proposed model will enhance knowledge sharing among climate change and adaptation organisations in Zimbabwe. It will transform knowledge management practices among climate change organisations in Zimbabwe. Originality/value The study recommends a knowledge sharing strategy that can be useful in supporting climate change adaptation. The model will support decision-making by providing access to shareable information on climate change. The proposed knowledge sharing strategy integrates the efforts of all stakeholders, including communities, government and academia, among many. The study proposes an original model for climate change adaptation for Zimbabwe.

2021

10.1108/VJIKMS-10-2019-0161

Hawkins, Poppy; Geza, Wendy; Mabhaudhi, Tafadzwanashe; Sutherland, Catherine; Queenan, Kevin; Dangour, Alan; Scheelbeek, Pauline

Dietary and agricultural adaptations to drought among smallholder farmers in South Africa: A qualitative study

WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES

Building resilience to environmental change is an integral part of long-term climate adaptation planning and local policy. There is an increased understanding of the impact of climate change on global crop production however, little focus has been given to local adaptation pathways and rural smallholder community responses, especially regarding food security. It is becoming increasingly evident that local level decision-making plays a vital role in reducing vulnerability to environmental change. This research aimed to qualitatively investigate coping and adaptive strategies adopted by smallholder farming households to respond to the impacts of drought in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Focus group discussions (n = 7) consisting of 5-9 participants and individual interviews (n = 9) using pre-tested topic guides, involving a total of 57 adults were conducted in rural areas of drought-affected districts: Msinga, Richmond and Umbumbulu of KwaZulu-Natal, in July 2018. The data were analysed using thematic analysis in NVivo 12. Thematic analysis identified three principal themes: 1. Perceived effects of droughts on the local food system and diets; 2. Current coping strategies; and 3. Enablers for successful adaptation. All sites reported a change in food consumption habits, with the majority perceiving drought to be the main driver behind a shift from vegetable-based to starch-based diets and decreased animal source food consumption. Only short-term coping strategies were implemented across the study sites. However, knowledge of long-term adaptation strategies existed but was unattainable to most respondents. Recommendations of perceived context-specific long-term adaptation strategies that could be used at a local scale were communicated by the respondents. However, they would need external help to actualize them. A need exists to support smallholder communities' short-term response methods to drought to achieve more holistic resilience and successful adaptation. Short-term adaptation strategies, if implemented alone, often have significant tradeoffs with longer-term adaptation and building resilience. This study highlights the need for targeted, contextualised policy solutions to improve smallholder productivity during drought through a strategic combination of both short- and longer-term adaptation measures, i.e. short-term adaptation should be guided by a long-term adaptation strategy. Proper planning, including the use of climate scenarios combined with information on nutritional status, is needed to develop context-specific and transformative adaptation strategies. These strategies should aim to strengthen resilience at a local level and should be included as policy recommendations.

2022

10.1016/j.wace.2022.100413

Ayugi, Brian; Jiang, Zhihong; Iyakaremye, Vedaste; Ngoma, Hamida; Babaousmail, Hassen; Onyutha, Charles; Dike, Victor Nnamdi; Mumo, Richard; Ongoma, Victor

East African population exposure to precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming levels based on CMIP6 models

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Understanding population exposure to precipitation-related extreme events is important for effective climate change adaptation and mitigation measures. We analyze extreme precipitation using indices (EPIs), including consecutive dry days (CDD), annual total precipitation, simple daily intensity, and the number of extremely wet days, under the past and future climatic conditions over East Africa. The exposure of the East African population to these extreme events at 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C global warming levels (GWLs) is analyzed based on Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 models. Exposure is computed from extremely wet and dry days (R95p and CDD, respectively). Under both GWLs, EPIs (except CDD) averaged over East Africa are projected to increase under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP)2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The largest increase in wet events will likely occur in eastern and northern Kenya. The results also reveal an intensification of precipitation extremes over Burundi, Rwanda, and some parts of Uganda. However, small changes are expected over most parts of Kenya and Tanzania. Examination of population exposure to EPIs shows that the most prominent and net intense occurrence is over Burundi, Rwanda, and some parts of Uganda. In contrast, less change is noted to occur over vast parts of Kenya and Tanzania. Meanwhile, limiting the warming target to less than 1.5 degrees C but not more than 2.0 degrees C has 37% (44.2%) and 92% (4%) less impact on the occurrence of EPIs for R95p (CDD) under SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenarios, respectively. The study establishes that future exposure is predominantly driven by changes in population compared to other factors such as climate or concurrent changes in climate and population (the nonlinear interaction effect). For instance, climate effects are anticipated to contribute similar to 10.6% (12.6%) of the total change in population exposure under 1.5 degrees C (2.0 degrees C) warming levels, while population and interaction effects are expected to contribute similar to 77.4% (71.9%) and 12% (15.5%), respectively, under 1.5 degrees C (2.0 degrees C) scenarios. Interestingly, the projected changes in regional exposure due to the interaction effects under SSP2-4.5 are greater than the climate effect, while the reverse pattern is observed under SSP5-8.5. For example, under SSP5-8.5, climate effects for 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C are larger (after population effect) with similar to 3.8 x 10(5) (15.7%) and similar to 6.1 x 10(5) (17.5%) billion person-mm, respectively. The high exposure noted over East Africa calls for a shift in policies to instate suitable adaptation measures to cushion the already vulnerable population.

2022

10.1088/1748-9326/ac5d9d

Vaghefi, Saeid Ashraf; Muccione, Veruska; van Ginkel, Kees C. H.; Haasnoot, Marjolijn

Using Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) approaches to support climate change adaptation of Swiss Ski Resorts

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY

Climate change threatens winter tourism in the Alps severely, and ski resorts are struggling to cope under uncertain climate change. We aim to identify under what conditions physical and economic tipping points for ski resorts may occur under changing climate in six Swiss ski resorts representing low, medium, and high elevation in the Alps. We use exploratory modeling (EMA) to assess climate change impacts on ski resorts under a range of futures adaptation options: (1) snowmaking and (2) diversifying the ski resorts' activities throughout the year. High-resolution climate projections (CH2018) were used to represent climate uncertainty. To improve the coverage of the uncertainty space and account for the climate models' intra-annual variability, we produced new climate realizations using resampling techniques. We demonstrate the importance of five factors, namely climate scenarios (RCPs), intra-annual climate variability, snow processes model, and two adaptation options, in ski resorts survival under a wide range of future scenarios. In six ski resorts, strong but highly variable decreases in the future number of days with good snow conditions for skiing (GSD) are projected. However, despite the different characteristics of the resorts, responses are similar and a shrunk of up to 31, 50, and 62 days in skiing season (Dec-April) is projected for the near-future (2020-2050), mid-future (2050-2080), and far-future (2070-2100), respectively. Similarly, in all cases, the number of days with good conditions for snowmaking (GDSM) will reduce up to 30, 50, and 74 days in the skiing season in the near-, mid-, and far-future horizons, respectively. We indicate that all ski resorts will face a reduction of up to 13%, 33%, and 51% of their reference period (1981-2010) revenue from winter skiing activities in the near-, mid-, and far-future horizons. Based on the outcomes of the EMA, we identify Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) and determine the adaptation options that ski resorts could implement to avoid tipping points in the future. We highlight the advantages of adaptive planning in a first of its kind application of DMDU techniques to winter tourism. We specify the possible adaptation options ranging from low revenue diversification and moderate snowmaking to high revenue diversification and large snowmaking and demonstrate when an adaptation action fails and a change to a new plan is needed. By the end of the century, we show that only ski resorts with ski lines above 1800-2000 m elevation will survive regardless of the climate scenarios. Our approach to decision-making is highly flexible and can easily be extended to other ski resorts and account for additional adaptation options.

2021

10.1016/j.envsci.2021.09.005

Rahman, Md. Siddikur; Ekalaksananan, Tipaya; Zafar, Sumaira; Poolphol, Petchaboon; Shipin, Oleg; Haque, Ubydul; Paul, Richard; Rocklov, Joacim; Pientong, Chamsai; Overgaard, Hans J.

Ecological, Social, and Other Environmental Determinants of Dengue Vector Abundance in Urban and Rural Areas of Northeastern Thailand

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH

Aedes aegypti is the main vector of dengue globally. The variables that influence the abundance of dengue vectors are numerous and complex. This has generated a need to focus on areas at risk of disease transmission, the spatial-temporal distribution of vectors, and the factors that modulate vector abundance. To help guide and improve vector-control efforts, this study identified the ecological, social, and other environmental risk factors that affect the abundance of adult female and immature Ae. aegypti in households in urban and rural areas of northeastern Thailand. A one-year entomological study was conducted in four villages of northeastern Thailand between January and December 2019. Socio-demographic; self-reported prior dengue infections; housing conditions; durable asset ownership; water management; characteristics of water containers; knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) regarding climate change and dengue; and climate data were collected. Household crowding index (HCI), premise condition index (PCI), socio-economic status (SES), and entomological indices (HI, CI, BI, and PI) were calculated. Negative binomial generalized linear models (GLMs) were fitted to identify the risk factors associated with the abundance of adult females and immature Ae. aegypti. Urban sites had higher entomological indices and numbers of adult Ae. aegypti mosquitoes than rural sites. Overall, participants' KAP about climate change and dengue were low in both settings. The fitted GLM showed that a higher abundance of adult female Ae. aegypti was significantly (p < 0.05) associated with many factors, such as a low education level of household respondents, crowded households, poor premise conditions, surrounding house density, bathrooms located indoors, unscreened windows, high numbers of wet containers, a lack of adult control, prior dengue infections, poor climate change adaptation, dengue, and vector-related practices. Many of the above were also significantly associated with a high abundance of immature mosquito stages. The GLM model also showed that maximum and mean temperature with four-and one-to-two weeks of lag were significant predictors (p < 0.05) of the abundance of adult and immature mosquitoes, respectively, in northeastern Thailand. The low KAP regarding climate change and dengue highlights the engagement needs for vector-borne disease prevention in this region. The identified risk factors are important for the critical first step toward developing routine Aedes surveillance and reliable early warning systems for effective dengue and other mosquito-borne disease prevention and control strategies at the household and community levels in this region and similar settings elsewhere.

2021

10.3390/ijerph18115971

Pollard, Carol Elaine

Up close and personal The value of feedback in implementing an individual energy-saving adaptation

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABILITY IN HIGHER EDUCATION

Purpose - The purpose of this research is to explore the drivers of computer-related sustainability behavior at a medium-sized US university and the extent to which an inexpensive energy-saving device installed on 146 administrator, faculty and general staff workstations achieved significant savings in kWh, CO2 kg and dollars. Design/methodology/approach - A mixed-method approach was used to collect qualitative and quantitative data to inform the study, and an intervention was introduced to raise awareness of energy-saving initiatives on a medium-sized university campus at an individual level. A simple computer energy efficiency device to measure the kWh, carbon emissions and monetary savings was installed on office workstations of 146 administrator, faculty and general staff. The research design enabled analysis of university mitigation strategies along with energy-saving behaviors, attitudes and savings in CO2 kg and dollars resulting from the installation of the adaptation intervention. Findings - Extrapolating individual workstation savings over the eight-week study period suggests potential annual average savings of $122,087.21; 1,327,003 kWh of energy; and 577,044 kg CO2. Usage behaviors and attitudes of study participants toward green practices in general and the specific energy-saving device showed participants hold highly positive attitudes toward both. Themes that captured participants' feeling toward the energy-saving device included: easy to use; enjoyment; feedback; habit and technical issues. Drivers that most highly motivated participants to save energy at work were participants' sense of social responsibility and the recognition of the need to reduce energy at work. Practical implications - The implementation of a voluntary individual-level energy-saving adaptation has the potential to be more far effective than expensive mandated strategies imposed on university employees and the value of feedback in positively influencing sustainability behavior. Originality/value - This study is one of the first to report on the implementation of a voluntary individual-level climate change adaptation intervention on a university campus. The research addresses concerns voiced in previous literature that higher education is not stepping up the critical role in climate adaptation required of it and contributes to the sustainability in higher education literature by providing empirical evidence of the usefulness of implementing a simple adaptation technique. Specifically, it documents how increasing sustainability awareness in university employees can encourage socially responsible and energy conversation behaviors and achieve significant energy savings in dollars, kWh and CO2 kg.

2016

10.1108/IJSHE-03-2014-0043

Islam, Md. Salman; Liu, Gengyuan; Xu, Duo; Chen, Yu; Li, Hui; Chen, Caocao

University-Campus-Based Zero-Carbon Action Plans for Accelerating the Zero-Carbon City Transition

SUSTAINABILITY

After three decades of global climate initiatives, local governments' capabilities to implement policies and solutions have not always been effective in making the urban environment more resilient and adaptive to climate change. All the previous climatic initiatives and decisions were mostly carried out by governments or affiliated actors on global or regional scales. However, the lack of notable climate actions at the community level is evident in the current crisis of urban sustainability. To drive a radical change toward a zero-carbon transition at the city scale, massive decarbonization is required at the institutional level (academic/nonacademic campus) of a city. Among all the nongovernmental actors, it is always expected that Higher Education Institutes (HEIs) would take the lead in promoting a resilient and sustainable future for the cities through their education, research, and innovation. HEIs' multidimensional activity resembles the small scale model of a city interacting with different subsystems like education, administration, transport, housing, health, etc. However, the present studies were found to be mostly based on specific regions and developed countries. In addition, the previously developed methods of assessing energy consumption and CO2 emissions at the university level lack adaptability for other countries and urban settings. Following the need for a comprehensive method of evaluating energy consumption and accelerating the zero-carbon practice to a broader scale, a new framework is proposed here for a university campus. It can be implemented regardless of the campus type and geographic and weather conditions. After implementing the evaluation methods on a 753-acre campus of Rajshahi University, the campus typology and natural resources were identified. Following that, the behavior patterns of the users in terms of energy usage and waste generation were also determined. Finally, the results show that 1900.71 tons of CO2 was emitted in the academic year 2022. The per-capita CO2 emission was 0.041 tons of CO2. To boost the zero-carbon city transition, three core parameters of scaling-up methods were taken into consideration to evaluate the benefits of zero-carbon campuses. The scalability of the zero-carbon practices was evaluated based on the ideas of (1) expansion-how educating future generations about the environment can have a long-lasting impact, (2) demonstration-adopting innovative practical and technological solutions to exhibit the benefits of zero-carbon practices to society, and (3) collaboration-building strong alliances with state and nonstate actors of the city to promote sustainability through sharing knowledge, innovation, and technology.

2023

10.3390/su151813504

Nice, Kerry A.; Demuzere, Matthias; Coutts, Andrew M.; Tapper, Nigel

Present day and future urban cooling enabled by integrated water management

FRONTIERS IN SUSTAINABLE CITIES

The process of urbanisation has increased public health risks due to urban heat, risks that will be further exacerbated in future decades by climate change. However, the growing adoption of integrated water management (IWM) practices (coordinated stormwater management of water, land, and resources) provides an opportunity to support urban heat amelioration through water supply provision and irrigated and vegetated infrastructure that can provide cooling benefits. This study examines the thermal impacts of future implementations of IWM for nine Australian cities based on a review of Government policy documents in the present and over two future time frames (2030 and 2050) under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSPs 1.2-6, 3.7-0 and 5.8-5). Statistical analysis of the future climate data using historical data shows that future warming is nuanced, with changes variable in both time and place, and with extremes becoming more pronounced in future. We have developed a unique approach to morph the future climate projections onto historical data (derived from the ERA5 Reanalysis product) for the 2010-2020 period. Additionally, we use locally appropriate Local Climate Zones (LCZs) for Australian cities, resulting from a holistic and global approach that is widely adopted by the urban climate modelling community. We developed scenarios for business-as-usual as well as implementation of moderate and high levels of IWM across each of the Australian LCZs and modelled them using TARGET (The Air temperature Response to Green infrastructure Evaluation Tool). Results generated at the LCZ level are aggregated to Australian statistical areas (SA4, the largest sub-city area) and city-wide levels. The thermal impacts associated with the various degrees of IWM were marked and geographically differentiated, depending on the climatic characteristics of the various cities. For the current climate, high IWM intervention provided reductions in annual mean daily maximum temperature ranging from -0.77 degrees C in Darwin, up to -1.86 degrees C in Perth. Generally, the drier southern cities of Sydney, Canberra, Albury, Melbourne, Adelaide, and Perth produced the greatest thermal response to implementation of IWM and the more tropical cities with higher rainfalls the least response. For some southern cities cooling was > -3.0 degrees C at the time of maximum summer temperatures. Interestingly high levels of IWM in winter produced modest warming of minimum overnight temperatures, especially for the cooler southern cities. The cooling benefits of IWM were seen across all future climate scenarios and are a real opportunity to offset-projected temperature increases resulting from climate change.

2024

10.3389/frsc.2024.1337449

Alkhani, Roudaina

Understanding Private-Sector Engagement in Sustainable Urban Development and Delivering the Climate Agenda in Northwestern Europe-A Case Study of London and Copenhagen

SUSTAINABILITY

While greenhouse gas emissions in Europe have reduced in recent years, there is still a considerable gap between the current situation and where we need be to limit global warming and adapt to climate change, particularly in cities. The Sustainable Development Goals and the Climate Agenda have placed great emphasis on collaborative frameworks and the private sector's crucial contribution to closing the climate gap in terms of investment and leadership in innovation. However, there has not been a concise follow-up and assessment of the private sector's practical involvement and contribution, whether policy and legislative frameworks and planning approaches are suitable to enable this involvement, and who would lead in delivering the climate agenda locally. The present article addresses this gap reporting on case observations regarding the delivery of climate interest and sustainability through urban development in London and Copenhagen-two European cities of different sizes and varying government approaches. Thereby, the article assesses patterns of private-sector involvement and governance around climate adaptation and mitigation and locates gaps around its involvement in delivering the climate agenda. The analysis clarifies overarching differences in governance and frameworks for the involvement of the private sector between the two cities, attributing this on the local level partly to city size and scale, but to a great extent to 'city leadership' in the built environment and sustainable urban innovation in general. A crucial finding highlights the importance that cities further establish platforms for collaborative learning, specifically around pilot urban projects, thereby stimulating voluntary private engagement. Another key finding is in the potential effectiveness of strategies by public agencies such as city governments to incentivise private actors and simultaneously monitor sustainability effects both broadly at the city level, and specifically at urban project level using ecological, circular and life-cycle approaches. Further implications of the analysis point to the importance of developing a more nuanced approach to understanding the different roles fulfilled by the 'private sector' in the built environment and the necessity of creating an information base addressing the life cycle of development projects and business processes and comparing their impacts. The situation also necessitates considering efforts, impacts, climate finances and data on the broad city scale. The findings of this article can inspire further research, benefit further action in these cities and inform international efforts about climate gaps related to climate adaptation and mitigation.

2020

10.3390/su12208431

De Costa, W. A. J. M.

Adaptation of agricultural crop production to climate change: A policy framework for Sri Lanka

JOURNAL OF THE NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION OF SRI LANKA

Agriculture is one of the key sectors of the Sri Lankan economy, which contributes a significant percentage to its gross domestic product (GDP) and provides direct or indirect employment to a sizeable proportion of its population. Climate change involves long-term slow changes in climate, short-term year-to-year climatic variability and unpredictable extreme climatic events. Agriculture, especially crop production, is highly dependent on the prevailing weather conditions and therefore is highly sensitive to climate change, both short-term and long-term. Almost all General Circulation Models predict that the processes of climate change such as increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and global warming will continue well into the 21(st) century even If the mitigation measures to minimize the causes of climate change exert maximum effect. Therefore, it is imperative that a well-co-ordinated and sustained effort is set in motion to increase the capacity of Sri Lankan agriculture to adapt to short and long-term climate change. Adaptation involves measures to minimize the impacts of climate change. At present, implementation of climate change adaptation measures in Sri Lanka is piecemeal and lacks co-ordination and direction. Hence, a clear policy framework identifying the measures to be pursued and the roles of different stakeholders is needed for allocating and channelling the necessary financial and human resources for successful adaptation to climate change. A clear and comprehensive policy framework also becomes the basis for development of an effective road map and an action plan to achieve successful adaptation. This paper discusses a policy framework for adaptation of Sri Lankan agriculture to climate change based on the following components: (a) Quantification and forecasting of climate change; (b) Assessment of impacts and vulnerability to climate change; (c) Identification and formulation of responses to adapt to climate change; (d) Creating and strengthening the institutional framework and infrastructure to implement and monitor adaptation measures to climate change. Major advances in scientific research on components a, b and c, both locally and internationally, are briefly discussed and key policy measures to facilitate and accelerate their progress along with the relevant stakeholders are identified. Importance of allocating adequate resources to promote research on all aspects of climate change and their impacts by developing infrastructure, a critical mass of experts and an institutional framework to effectively link all stakeholders to channel the formulated adaptation measures to the farming communities at the grass-root level are emphasized.

2010

10.4038/jnsfsr.v38i2.2032

Lobell, David B.; Baldos, Uris Lantz C.; Hertel, Thomas W.

Climate adaptation as mitigation: the case of agricultural investments

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Successful adaptation of agriculture to ongoing climate changes would help to maintain productivity growth and thereby reduce pressure to bring new lands into agriculture. In this paper we investigate the potential co-benefits of adaptation in terms of the avoided emissions from land use change. A model of global agricultural trade and land use, called SIMPLE, is utilized to link adaptation investments, yield growth rates, land conversion rates, and land use emissions. A scenario of global adaptation to offset negative yield impacts of temperature and precipitation changes to 2050, which requires a cumulative 225 billion USD of additional investment, results in 61 Mha less conversion of cropland and 15 Gt carbon dioxide equivalent (CO(2)e) fewer emissions by 2050. Thus our estimates imply an annual mitigation co-benefit of 0 : 35 GtCO(2)e yr(-1) while spending $15 per tonne CO(2)e of avoided emissions. Uncertainty analysis is used to estimate a 5-95% confidence interval around these numbers of 0.25-0.43 Gt and $11-$22 per tonne CO(2)e. A scenario of adaptation focused only on Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, while less costly in aggregate, results in much smaller mitigation potentials and higher per tonne costs. These results indicate that although investing in the least developed areas may be most desirable for the main objectives of adaptation, it has little net effect on mitigation because production gains are offset by greater rates of land clearing in the benefited regions, which are relatively low yielding and land abundant. Adaptation investments in high yielding, land scarce regions such as Asia and North America are more effective for mitigation. To identify data needs, we conduct a sensitivity analysis using the Morris method (Morris 1991 Technometrics 33 161-74). The three most critical parameters for improving estimates of mitigation potential are (in descending order) the emissions factors for converting land to agriculture, the price elasticity of land supply with respect to land rents, and the elasticity of substitution between land and non-land inputs. For assessing the mitigation costs, the elasticity of productivity with respect to investments in research and development is also very important. Overall, this study finds that broad-based efforts to adapt agriculture to climate change have mitigation co-benefits that, even when forced to shoulder the entire expense of adaptation, are inexpensive relative to many activities whose main purpose is mitigation. These results therefore challenge the current approach of most climate financing portfolios, which support adaptation from funds completely separate from-and often much smaller than-mitigation ones.

2013

10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/015012

Vukmirovic, Milena; Gavrilovic, Suzana; Stojanovic, Dalibor

The Improvement of the Comfort of Public Spaces as a Local Initiative in Coping with Climate Change

SUSTAINABILITY

Being the vital element of successful cities, public spaces play an important role in achieving sustainable development goals and in coping with climate change. The new urban agenda considers public spaces indispensable for sustaining the productivity of cities, social cohesion and inclusion, civic identity, and quality of life. Accordingly, there is no doubt about the importance of public spaces, while their quality is generated through the symbiosis of various elements. On the basis of normative theories of urban design, several public space design frameworks have been established in order to define what makes a good public place. Such a framework for public space quality evaluation is developed and tested at the Chair for Planning and Design in Landscape Architecture at the University of Belgrade Faculty of Forestry. The framework covers six criteria which illuminate key aspects of public spaces: safety and security, accessibility, legibility, comfort, inspiration and sensitivity and liveability. In this research, special attention is paid to the criteria of comfort analysed on two scale levels in Belgrade, Serbia. In the past, Belgrade was affected by extreme weather events that caused serious and sometimes disastrous consequences. The most pronounced challenges among them are heat waves in summer that, due to the shortage of vegetation combined with the proliferation of tarmac and concrete surfaces and reduced air ventilation, particularly threaten the densely populated central municipalities of Stari Grad, Sayski Venac and Vracar. The first scale level covers the analysis of the public space network and the degree of establishment of green infrastructure in Lower Dorcol quartier, which is located in the Municipality of Stari Grad, using quantitative and qualitative indicators and GIS (Geographic Information System) digital tools. The aim of this study is to observe the actual state of the public space network and to define a future scenario of its development in line with climate change challenges. Jevrejska Street, as an element of the above-mentioned public space network, is the subject of the next phase of the research. The study on this scale level will cover qualitative and quantitative analysis of public space elements such as paving, urban equipment, greenery, lighting, water facilities, etc. Next to that, by using the ENVI Met platform, the actual and proposed improvement of the street will be explored. The final part of this research will include a discussion about the research methodology used in order to improve the public space design process and to point out the need for the careful consideration of comfort as an important aspect of good public space.

2019

10.3390/su11236546

Kerr, Rachel Bezner; Nyantakyi-Frimpong, Hanson; Dakishoni, Laifolo; Lupafya, Esther; Shumba, Lizzie; Luginaah, Isaac; Snapp, Sieglinde S.

Knowledge politics in participatory climate change adaptation research on agroecology in Malawi

RENEWABLE AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SYSTEMS

Climate change is projected to have severe implications for smallholder agriculture in Africa, with increased temperatures, increased drought and flooding occurrence, and increased rainfall variability. Given these projections, there is a need to identify effective strategies to help rural communities adapt to climatic risks. Yet, relatively little research has examined the politics and social dynamics around knowledge and sources of information about climate-change adaptation with smallholder farming communities. This paper uses a political ecology approach to historically situate rural people's experiences with a changing climate. Using the concept of the co-production of knowledge, we examine how Malawian smallholder farmers learn, perceive, share and apply knowledge about a changing climate, and what sources they draw on for agroecological methods in this context. As well, we pay particular attention to agricultural knowledge flows within and between households. We ask two main questions: Whose knowledge counts in relation to climate-change adaptation? What are the political, social and environmental implications of these knowledge dynamics? We draw upon a long-term action research project on climate-change adaptation that involved focus groups, interviews, observations, surveys, and participatory agroecology experiments with 425 farmers. Our findings are consistent with other studies, which found that agricultural knowledge sources were shaped by gender and other social inequalities, with women more reliant on informal networks than men. Farmers initially ranked extension services as important sources of knowledge about farming and climate change. After farmers carried out participatory agroecological research, they ranked their own observation and informal farmer networks as more important sources of knowledge. Contradictory ideas about climate-change adaptation, linked to various positions of power, gaps of knowledge and social inequalities make it challenging for farmers to know how to act despite observing changes in rainfall. Participatory agroecological approaches influenced adaptation strategies used by smallholder farmers in Malawi, but most still maintained the dominant narrative about climate-change causes, which focused on local deforestation by rural communities. Smallholder farmers in Malawi are responsible for <1% of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet our results show that the farmers often blame their own rural communities for changes in deforestation and rainfall patterns. Researchers need to consider differences knowledge and power between scientists and farmers and the contradictory narratives at work in communities to foster long-term change.

2018

10.1017/S1742170518000017

Zhai, Ran; Tao, Fulu; Xu, Zhihui

Spatial-temporal changes in runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention under 1.5 and 2°C warming scenarios across China

EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS

The Paris Agreement set a long-term temperature goal of holding the global average temperature increase to below 2.0 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, pursuing efforts to limit this to 1.5 degrees C; it is therefore important to understand the impacts of climate change under 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C warming scenarios for climate adaptation and mitigation. Here, climate scenarios from four global circulation models (GCMs) for the baseline (2006-2015), 1.5, and 2.0 degrees C warming scenarios (2106-2115) were used to drive the validated Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model to investigate the impacts of global warming on runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention (TEWR) across China at a spatial resolution of 0.5 degrees. This study applied ensemble projections from multiple GCMs to provide more comprehensive and robust results. The trends in annual mean temperature, precipitation, runoff, and TEWR were analyzed at the grid and basin scale. Results showed that median change in runoff ranged from 3.61 to 13.86 %, 4.20 to 17.89 %, and median change in TEWR ranged from -0.45 to 6.71 and -3.48 to 4.40 % in the 10 main basins in China under 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C warming scenarios, respectively, across all four GCMs. The interannual variability of runoff increased notably in areas where it was projected to increase, and the interannual variability increased notably from the 1.5 to the 2.0 degrees C warming scenario. In contrast, TEWR would remain relatively stable, the median change in standard deviation (SD) of TEWR ranged from -10 to 10 % in about 90 % grids under 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C warming scenarios, across all four GCMs. Both low and high runoff would increase under the two warming scenarios in most areas across China, with high runoff increasing more. The risks of low and high runoff events would be higher under the 2.0 than under the 1.5 degrees C warming scenario in terms of both extent and intensity. Runoff was significantly positively correlated to precipitation, while increase in maximum temperature would generally cause runoff to decrease through increasing evapotranspiration. Likewise, precipitation also played a dominant role in affecting TEWR. Our results were supported by previous studies. However, there existed large uncertainties in climate scenarios from different GCMs, which led to large uncertainties in impact assessment. The differences among the four GCMs were larger than differences between the two warming scenarios. Our findings on the spatiotemporal patterns of climate impacts and their shifts from the 1.5 to the 2.0 degrees C warming scenario are useful for water resource management under different warming scenarios.

2018

10.5194/esd-9-717-2018

van Aalst, M. A.; Koomen, E.; Tran, D. D.; Hoang, H. M.; Nguyen, H. Q.; de Groot, H. L. F.

The economic sustainability of rice farming and its influence on farmer decision-making in the upper Mekong delta, Vietnam

AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT

Intensive agriculture is increasingly associated with environmental degradation that may jeopardise long-term environmental and economic sustainability. The high-dike system in the upper Mekong delta that has enabled intensive rice cultivation represents a prime example of these potential negative feedbacks. The lack of seasonal flooding and the associated depletion of nutrients is expected to affect farmer income as productivity declines and more fertiliser is required. Therefore, emphasis has shifted towards more sustainable, flood-based agricul-ture, however farmer uptake has its challenges. Based on a compilation of different household surveys we first analyse rice farmers' ability and willingness to transition and subsequently study the economic sustainability of intensive rice-based livelihoods. A Motivation and Ability (MOTA) survey reveals that two-thirds of the surveyed rice farmers are reluctant to change to flood-based farming systems, as they consider rice cultivation to be economically viable in the near future. They also mention financial and technical ability as key constraints. Subsequently, we analyse yield and fertiliser developments for a large sample of farming households under different dike systems between 2008 and 2015. This shows that income from rice farming grew steadily under high-dike systems as productivity growth compensated for higher input requirements. This growth is partly dampened by the slightly higher negative impacts of potential flood damage in high-dike areas, compared low-dike areas. A counterintuitive effect that is related to the fact that high dikes remain prone to dike overtopping or breaching in the flooding season, resulting in potentially higher damage than low-dike areas that are able to crop flood-based alternatives. The observed growth in income is a likely explanation for the reluctance to change in the studied period. Our analysis also shows that rice income growth is unequally distributed in high-dike areas, with lower incomes being associated with new high-dike systems and slower growth of incomes of smallholder rice farmers compared to large-scale farms. This makes smallholder rice farmers in high-dike areas especially vulnerable to changing conditions, and thus a priority target group for policy makers promoting flood-based alternatives. Recent commune level yield data show that the past productivity growth has stalled, increasing the prospects for alternative flood-based agriculture. This transition can be facilitated, by enhancing the eco-nomic viability of flood-based crops and, particularly for smallholder farmers, by improving their financial and technical capabilities through supportive policies.

2023

10.1016/j.agwat.2022.108018

Bi, Xu; Chang, Bianrong; Hou, Fen; Yang, Zihan; Fu, Qi; Li, Bo

Assessment of Spatio-Temporal Variation and Driving Mechanism of Ecological Environment Quality in the Arid Regions of Central Asia, Xinjiang

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH

Grassland ecosystems are increasingly threatened by pressures from climate change and intensified human activity, especially in the arid region of Central Asia. A comprehensive understanding of the ecological environment changes is crucial for humans to implement environmental protection measures to adapt to climate change and alleviate the contradiction between humans and land. In this study, fractional vegetation coverage (FVC), leaf area index (LAI), gross primary productivity of vegetation (GPP), land surface temperature (LST), and wetness (WET) were retrieved from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite remote sensing products in 2008 and 2018. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to establish the MODIS data-based ecological index (MODEI) in the study area, and the spatial differentiation characteristics and driving mechanism of ecological quality in the last ten years were explored. The results showed that: (1) FVC, GPP, LAI, and WET had positive effects on the ecological environment, while LST had a negative impact on the ecological environment. FVC and GPP were more significant than other indicators. (2) The MODEI showed a spatial pattern of excellent in the north and poor in the south and changed from north to south in the study area. (3) From 2008 to 2018, the average MODEI of Fuyun County increased from 0.292 to 0.303, indicating that the ecological quality in Fuyun County became better overall. The improved areas were mainly located in the summer pastures at higher elevations. In comparison, the deteriorated areas were concentrated in the spring and autumn pastures and winter pastures at lower elevations. The areas where the ecological environment had obviously improved and degraded were distributed along the banks of the Irtysh River and the Ulungur River. (4) With the increase in precipitation and the decrease in grazing pressure, the MODEI of summer pasture was improved. The deterioration of ecological environment quality in spring and autumn pastures and winter pastures was related to the excessive grazing pressure. The more significant changes in the MODEI on both sides of the river were associated with implementing the herdsmen settlement project. On the one hand, the implementation of newly settled villages increased the area of construction land on both sides of the river, which led to the deterioration of ecological quality; on the other hand, due to the increase in cropland land and the planting of artificial grasses along the river, the ecological quality was improved. The study offers significant information for managers to make more targeted ecological restoration efforts in ecologically fragile areas.

2021

10.3390/ijerph18137111

Chersich, Matthew F.; Wright, Caradee Y.

Climate change adaptation in South Africa: a case study on the role of the health sector

GLOBALIZATION AND HEALTH

BackgroundGlobally, the response to climate change is gradually gaining momentum as the impacts of climate change unfold. In South Africa, it is increasingly apparent that delays in responding to climate change over the past decades have jeopardized human life and livelihoods. While slow progress with mitigation, especially in the energy sector, has garnered much attention, focus is now shifting to developing plans and systems to adapt to the impacts of climate change.MethodsWe applied systematic review methods to assess progress with climate change adaptation in the health sector in South Africa. This case study provides useful lessons which could be applied in other countries in the African region, or globally. We reviewed the literature indexed in PubMed and Web of Science, together with relevant grey literature. We included articles describing adaptation interventions to reduce the impact of climate change on health in South Africa. All study designs were eligible. Data from included articles and grey literature were summed thematically.ResultsOf the 820 publications screened, 21 were included, together with an additional xx papers. Very few studies presented findings of an intervention or used high-quality research designs. Several policy frameworks for climate change have been developed at national and local government levels. These, however, pay little attention to health concerns and the specific needs of vulnerable groups. Systems for forecasting extreme weather, and tracking malaria and other infections appear well established. Yet, there is little evidence about the country's preparedness for extreme weather events, or the ability of the already strained health system to respond to these events. Seemingly, few adaptation measures have taken place in occupational and other settings. To date, little attention has been given to climate change in training curricula for health workers.ConclusionsOverall, the volume and quality of research is disappointing, and disproportionate to the threat posed by climate change in South Africa. This is surprising given that the requisite expertise for policy advocacy, identifying effective interventions and implementing systems-based approaches rests within the health sector. More effective use of data, a traditional strength of health professionals, could support adaptation and promote accountability of the state. With increased health-sector leadership, climate change could be reframed as predominately a health issue, one necessitating an urgent, adequately-resourced response. Such a shift in South Africa, but also beyond the country, may play a key role in accelerating climate change adaptation and mitigation.

2019

10.1186/s12992-019-0466-x

Vandamme, Elke; Manners, Rhys; Adewopo, Julius; Thiele, Graham; Friedmann, Michael; Thornton, Philip

Strategizing research and development investments in climate change adaptation for root, tuber and banana crops in the African Great Lakes Region: A spatial prioritisation and targeting framework

AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS

CONTEXT: Given the significance of climate change impacts on farming communities, large investments are made by research and development actors, including farmers themselves, to adapt agricultural systems. A data -driven approach is required to guide these investments and maximize their impact. In the African Great Lakes Region (GLR), root, tuber and banana (RT&B) crops are a vital component of smallholder farming systems, but little is known about strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on these crops.OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to develop a spatial prioritisation and targeting framework based on the risk of climate-related impacts to guide research investments and prioritisation in CSA for RT&B crops in the GLR.METHODS: Climate change impact data on crop suitability were layered onto other spatially-explicit biophysical and socio-economic data to map clusters of homologous regions, called socio-agroeocological homologues (SAHs). The SAHs were defined by the risk of climate-related impacts, resulting from the interaction of hazards,exposure and vulnerability. The framework was applied to RT&B crops (banana, potato, cassava and sweet -potato) in the African GLR. Its utility was illustrated by elaborating adaptation scenarios for selected SAHs of one long-duration (banana) and one short-duration (potato) RT&B crop.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: Four SAHs were identified for banana, potato and sweetpotato and five for cassava. For each crop, SAHs were prioritised for investment in climate change adaptation based on the level of risk of climate-related impacts. Scenario analysis showed that the introduction of drought-tolerant varieties would in-crease suitability for banana from 0.30 to 0.47 under baseline conditions and from 0.54 to 0.71 under future climates in a prioritised SAH with low to moderate suitability for typical varieties. For potato, the introduction of heat-tolerant genotypes, intercropping with legumes or the combination of both would allow compensating negative impacts of climate change on crop suitability in two SAHs representing important mid-altitude potato growing areas, from an average of-0.19 and-0.16 to an average of up to +0.25 and + 0.15 respectively. Scaling approaches should consider the difference in socio-economic conditions between the two SAHs.SIGNIFICANCE: We envision the framework to be useful for a diverse range of users throughout the innovation and scaling continuum to understand where climate change impacts are expected to be most severe, what type of innovations are needed to help farmers adapt, and how these innovations should be scaled to enable uptake by considering socio-economic drivers of adoption.

2022

10.1016/j.agsy.2022.103464

Asante, Paulina A.; Rozendaal, Danae M. A.; Rahn, Eric; Zuidema, Pieter A.; Quaye, Amos K.; Asare, Richard; Laderach, Peter; Anten, Niels P. R.

Unravelling drivers of high variability of on-farm cocoa yields across environmental gradients in Ghana

AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS

CONTEXT: Cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) is one of the world's most important agricultural commodity crops with the largest share of global production concentrated in West Africa. Current on-farm yields in this region are low and are expected to decrease in response to climate change, through warming and shifts in rainfall. Interventions intended to improve yields and climate adaptation require an understanding of the main drivers of yields across farms. OBJECTIVE: In this regard, we quantified the extent to which environmental (i.e., climate and soil) conditions drive cocoa yields and how this differs for farms achieving on average low- and high mean production levels based on an unprecedented dataset of 3827 cocoa farms spanning the environmental gradients of Ghana. We further quantified the relative importance of management practices based on a subset of 134 farms for which management information was available. METHODS: We modelled on-farm annual cocoa yield as a function of environmental variables for the large dataset and cocoa yield per tree as a function of environmental and management variables for the subset farms using mixed-effects models. Differences in effects on yield between farms with low and high mean production levels were evaluated using quantile mixed-effects models. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: There was considerable variability in yields across farms, ranging from similar to 100 to >1000 kg ha(-1) (mean = 554 kg ha(-1)). Mixed-effects models showed that the fixed effects (i.e., environmental variables) only explained 7% of the variability in yields whilst fixed and random effects together explained 80%, suggesting that farm-to-farm variation played a large role. Explained variation in cocoa yields per tree of 134 farms in the subset increased from 10% to 25% when including management variables in addition to environmental variables. In both models, climate-related factors had a larger effect on yields than edaphic factors, with radiation of the main dry season and that of the previous year having the strongest effects on on-farm- and tree yields, respectively. The quantile regression analyses showed that productivity in high-yielding farms (90th percentile) was more strongly driven by environmental factors than in low-yielding farms (10th percentile). In conclusion, agronomic management is the dominant determinant of on-farm cocoa yields in Ghana, more so than environmental conditions. Furthermore, high-yielding cocoa farms are more sensitive to environmental conditions than low-yielding ones. SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings suggests that good agricultural practices need to be in place before investing in additional climate adaptation practices.

2021

10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103214

Cid, Abril; Lerner, Amy M. M.

Local governments as key agents in climate change adaptation: challenges and opportunities for institutional capacity-building in Mexico

CLIMATE POLICY

Institutional capacity is one of the dimensions of adaptive capacity that determines the level and pace of climate change adaptation at the local level. Local governments are key actors in climate change adaptation because they have the responsibility to translate top-down risk information to vulnerable populations and can scale bottom-up initiatives of communities in adaptation planning. There is a need for integrated approaches for adaptive capacity building that incorporate specific capacities to tackle multiple climate risks and generic capacities to address basic needs for human development. In this analysis, we assess the institutional capacity profiles of local governments in Mexico through a cluster analysis to understand how different aspects of generic and specific capacities, which operate through bottom-up or top-down approaches, coincide in local governments. Our results show that local governments in Mexico can be grouped by type and level of institutional capacity, as follows: those that (1) engage in intergovernmental coordination; (2) focus on safety-first; (3) exhibit high capacities in transparency and citizen participation; and (4) are in a poverty trap. These groups reflect challenges for local governments in Mexico, including the need to resolve short-term crises, the lack of climate change awareness, and a low capacity to access and mobilize economic resources for adaptation. Conversely, horizontal and vertical coordination, transparency, and citizen participation are found to be key elements able to strengthen institutional capacities for adaptation. In the context of multiple climate risks and underdeveloped enabling conditions for adaptation, there is a need for strategic investment in capacities that are contextually relevant and that can reduce the adaptation gap for climate action in Mexico. Further analysis will be needed to evaluate how the mobilization of the institutional capacities by local governments in each group influences climate change adaptation outcomes, particularly differentiated for urban and rural contexts, as well as for metropolitan scales.Key policy insights- Local governments in Mexico are faced with the challenge of resolving urgent and short-term issues, making it difficult to face climate change adaptation. - Intergovernmental coordination is a key attribute that local governments can develop to address and overcome deficiencies in institutional capacities for climate change adaptation - Administrative capacity, transparency, accountability, and public participation are critical elements for local governments and will assist them to access and mobilize economic resources for climate change adaptation.

2023

10.1080/14693062.2022.2163972

Antwi-Agyei, Philip; Stringer, Lindsay C.

Improving the effectiveness of agricultural extension services in supporting farmers to adapt to climate change: Insights from northeastern Ghana

CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT

The importance of extension services in helping smallholder farmers to address the many challenges of agricultural production cannot be over-emphasized. However, relatively few studies have been conducted that investigate how the capacities of agricultural extension agents can be built to more effectively assist smallholder farmers in managing climate risks and impacts. As climate change is a key threat to smallholder food production, addressing this issue is increasingly important. This paper aims to identify how agricultural extension agents in Ghana can better support smallholder farmers in navigating and addressing the effects of climate change on food production. It asks: (i) what are the sources of information used by agricultural extension agents in Ghana's Upper East region? (ii) what are the capacity building needs of agricultural extension agents for effective communication of climate information for building resilient agricultural systems? (iii) what are the key barriers to successful extension outcomes for climate change adaptation? The paper uses a mixed methods approach including three regional stakeholder workshops, expert interviews and surveys with 32 agricultural extension agents in northeastern Ghana. Results addressing question (i) indicated that radios and television are the dominant sources of climate information for agricultural extension agents in the Upper East region. Findings targeting question (ii) identified capacity building needs such as developing extension agents' technical skills, improving communication skills, improving knowledge and use of climate smart agricultural interventions such as soil moisture conservation methods, and training on information communication technologies (ICT) to deliver extension advice on climate change. Other needs included developing skills in field demonstration and project monitoring and evaluation. Addressing question (iii), key barriers confronted by agricultural extension agents in the delivery of extension on climate change included lack of transportation facilities for extension agents, lack of appropriate extension materials, high agricultural extension agent to farmer ratios, and inadequate funds to implement adaptation practices. Wider barriers reducing the effectiveness of extension efforts included farmer resistance to change and complex land tenure arrangements that do not allow investment. Periodic workshops should be organised for agricultural extension agents on the use of ICT to deliver extension services, whilst encouraging the use of audio-visuals in extension delivery. These efforts should be supported by regular assessments of extension agents' capacity building needs.

2021

10.1016/j.crm.2021.100304

Metlen, Kerry L.; Skinner, Carl N.; Olson, Derek R.; Nichols, Clint; Borgias, Darren

Regional and local controls on historical fire regimes of dry forests and woodlands in the Rogue River Basin, Oregon, USA

FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

Fire regimes structure plant communities worldwide with regional and local factors, including anthropogenic fire management, influencing fire frequency and severity. Forests of the Rogue River Basin in Oregon, USA, are both productive and fire-prone due to ample winter precipitation and summer drought; yet management in this region is strongly influenced by forest practices that depend on fire exclusion. Regionally, climate change is increasing fire frequency, elevating the importance of understanding historically frequent-fire regimes. We use cross-dated fire-scars to characterize historical fire return intervals, seasonality, and relationships with climate beginning in 1650 CE for 13 sites representative of southwestern Oregon dry forests. Using systematic literature review, we link our local fire histories to a regional dataset and evaluate our data relative to more intensively studied conifer/hardwood forest types in California. Fire-scars show that fires in the Rogue Basin were frequent and regular until disrupted in the 1850s through 1910s, corresponding with forced displacement of Native Americans and Euro-American settlement. Median historical fire return intervals were 8 years at the stand-scale (< 25 ha), with site medians ranging from five to 14 years and no significant differences between sampled vegetation types. Burn seasonality was broadly distributed with 47% of recorded fires in the latewood (midsummer), 30% at the ring boundary (late summer and fall), and 23% in the earlywood (spring and early summer). The number of sites recording fire each year was associated with Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and El Nino Southern Oscillation Index (ENSO). Fires were detected in the study area every other year, and synchrony among sites was associated with stronger annual drought. The ENSO synchronization of fire suggests an herbaceous fuel signal, with warm winters/wet summers two years prior to widespread fire-years, a pattern observed globally in fuel-limited systems. Stand-scale fire histories in the Klamath, southern Cascades, and northern Sierra Nevada ecoregions resemble Rogue River Basin stand-scale fire histories. Across dry mixed conifer, yellow pine, and mixed evergreen forests, fire return intervals converged on 8 years. Moist mixed conifer and red fir forests exhibited 13-year fire return intervals. Across ecoregions, fire periodicity was weakly correlated with climatic water deficit, but well-modeled by elevation, precipitation, and temperature. These data highlight the need for decadal fire and burning outside of the contemporary fire season for forest restoration and climate adaptation in the dry forests of the Rogue Basin.

2018

10.1016/j.foreco.2018.07.010

Liu, Guoshuai; Wang, Weiguang; Xu, Hui

Spring Irrigation Reduces the Frequency and Intensity of Summer Extreme Heat Events in the North China Plain

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Irrigation has distinct impacts on extreme temperatures. Due to the carryover effect of soil moisture into other seasons, temperature impacts of irrigation are not limited to irrigated seasons. Focusing on the North China Plain, where irrigation occurs in both spring (March-April-May) and summer (June-July-August), with a higher proportion of irrigation water applied during spring, we investigate the impact of spring irrigation on summer extreme heat events. Based on partial correlation analysis of data products, we find positive correlations between spring and summer soil moisture, suggesting that spring irrigation-induced water surplus persists into the following summer and affects regional climate by impacting surface energy partitioning. Regional climate simulations confirm cross-seasonal climatic effects and show that spring irrigation reduces the frequency and intensity of summer extreme heat events by approximately -2.5 days and -0.29 degrees C, respectively. Our results highlight the importance of the cross-seasonal climatic effect of irrigation in mitigating climate extremes. Irrigation exerts a stronger impact on extreme temperatures than on mean temperatures. The North China Plain (NCP) is a typical winter wheat-summer maize rotation planting area, where irrigation is necessary in both spring and summer, but with a higher proportion of irrigation water applied during spring. The climatic effects of spring and summer irrigation in the NCP are intertwined due to the carryover effects of soil moisture. Recently, the climatic effect of irrigation in the NCP has been extensively explored, whereas the cross-seasonal effects of irrigation on summer extreme heat events have never been quantified. In this study, we employ the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a demand-driven irrigation algorithm to discern the effects of spring and/or summer irrigation on summer extreme heat events by means of idealized climate simulations. The results show that spring and summer irrigation significantly reduces the frequency and intensity of summer extreme heat events by approximately -6.5 days and -1.0 degrees C, of which spring irrigation contributes about 38% and 30%, respectively. Our findings underline the importance of irrigation-induced climate impacts in mitigating extreme heat events and emphasize that climate change adaptation planning in terms of irrigation must account for cross-seasonal climatic effects. Effect of multi-seasonal irrigation on summer extreme heat events is investigated Spring irrigation is beneficial for reducing summer extreme heat events Irrigation modulates the relationship between spring and summer soil moisture

2024

10.1029/2023GL107094

Ntihinyurwa, Pierre Damien; de Vries, Walter Timo

Farmland fragmentation and defragmentation nexus: Scoping the causes, impacts, and the conditions determining its management decisions

ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS

Theoretically, both land fragmentation and consolidation (defragmentation) approaches are considered as tools of land management. However, although a large literature about the relationships among land fragmentation, land consolidation, agriculture production and crops diversification concepts exists, less is known about the linkages among the conditions determining the decisions about the adoption of these tools in a given area. This poses a major dilemmatic challenge to policy makers about whether to devise policies in favour of fragmentation conservation or defragmentation. Therefore, this study identifies the conditions under which one could opt for land fragmentation or defragmentation policies by critically reviewing the documented causal-effects relationships between different fragmentation forms and defragmentation approaches. The end goal is the development of an explicit comprehensive model indicating when, where and why farmland fragmentation can be preserved or eliminated for food security purposes within the framework of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs 1, 2, 12, 13 and 15). Following the rationalist theory, the study adopts an integrative concept-centric qualitative approach which builds on the analysis of existing literature and deductive logical reasoning to create new comprehensive scientific knowledge about a topic, as an informative guidance for future research and policies. Contrary to the majority of existing literature, this study posits that farmland fragmentation is not necessarily a problem. The scenarios and extent to which it becomes problematic or beneficial are dependent on a combination of a number of local specific external circumstances, ranging from biophysical, social, economic, political, technical to agro-ecological ones. For subsistence motives, labour, risks and conflicts management, climate change adaptation and household food security purposes, both physical in terms of internal and location, and tenure fragmentation of farmland in a given heterogeneous area under the subsistence and middle-income economies can be conserved either in combination with or without agriculture intensification programs. On the other hand, both physical and tenure fragmentation of farmland under homogenous agro-ecological conditions, and physical fragmentation under heterogeneous agro-ecological conditions and strong complex economies can be revoked for the purposes of improving farm efficiency, food quantity and supply, and food security. We therefore argue that any policy to adapt the extent of farmland fragmentation should consider both the benefits and costs of such intervention in relation to the specific local context.

2020

10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106828

Okewu, Emmanuel; Misra, Sanjay; Okewu, Jonathan

Model-Driven Engineering and Creative Arts Approach to Designing Climate Change Response System for Rural Africa: A Case Study of Adum-Aiona Community in Nigeria

PROBLEMY EKOROZWOJU

Experts at the just concluded climate summit in Paris (COP21) are unanimous in opinion that except urgent measures are taken by all humans, average global temperature rise would soon reach the deadly 2 degrees C mark. When this happens, socio-economic livelihoods, particularly in developing economies, would be dealt lethal blow in the wake of associated natural causes such as increased disease burden, soil nutrient destruction, desertification, food insecurity, among others. To avert imminent dangers, nations, including those from Africa, signed a legally binding universally accepted climate control protocol to propagate and regulate environmentally-friendly behaviours globally. The climate vulnerability of Africa as established by literature is concerning. Despite contributing relatively less than other continents to aggregate environmental injustice, the continent is projected to bear the most brunt of environmental degradation. This is on account of her inability to put systems and mechanisms in place to stem consequences of climate change. Hence, our resolve to use a combination of scientific and artistic models to design a response system for tackling climate challenges in Africa. Our model formulation encompasses computational model and creative arts model for drawing attention to environmentally friendly behaviours and climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. In this work, we focus on rural Africa to share experience of climate change impact on agriculture mainstay of rural African economy. We examine the carbon footprints of a rural community in Nigeria the Adum-Aiona community as case study and for industrial experience. The authors will provide operational data to substantiate claims of existential threats posed by greenhouse gas (GHG) generation on livelihoods of rural dwellers. The study will also design and test a Climate Change Response System (CCRS) that will enable people to adapt and reduce climate change impact. To achieve the research objective, the researchers will review literature, gather requirements, model the proposed system using Unified Modelling Language (UML), and test CCRS statically. We expect that the implementation of the proposed system will enable people mitigate the effects of, and adapt to, climate change-induced socio-economic realities. This is besides the fact that the empirical data provided by the study will help clear doubts about the real or perceived threats of climate change. Finally, the industrial experience and case study we share from Africa using model-driven engineering approach will scale up the repository of knowledge of both climate change research and model-driven engineering community.

2017

Churchill, Derek J.; Larson, Andrew J.; Dahlgreen, Matthew C.; Franklin, Jerry F.; Hessburg, Paul F.; Lutz, James A.

Restoring forest resilience: From reference spatial patterns to silvicultural prescriptions and monitoring

FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

Stand-level spatial pattern influences key aspects of resilience and ecosystem function such as disturbance behavior, regeneration, snow retention, and habitat quality in frequent-fire pine and mixed-conifer forests. Reference sites, from both pre-settlement era reconstructions and contemporary forests with active fire regimes, indicate that frequent-fire forests are complex mosaics of individual trees, tree clumps, and openings. There is a broad scientific consensus that restoration treatments should seek to restore this mosaic pattern in order to restore resilience and maintain ecosystem function. Yet, methods to explicitly incorporate spatial reference information into restoration treatments are not widely used. In addition, targets from reference conditions must be critically evaluated in light of climate change. We used a spatial clump identification algorithm to quantify reference patterns based on a specified inter-tree distance that defines when trees form clumps. We used climatic water balance parameters, down-scaled climate projections, and plant associations to assess our historical reference sites in the context of projected future climate and identify climate analog reference conditions. Spatial reference information was incorporated into a novel approach to prescription development, tree marking, and monitoring based on viewing stand structure and pattern in terms of individuals, clumps, and openings (ICO) in a mixed-conifer forest restoration case study. We compared the results from the ICO approach with simulations of traditional basal area and spacing-based thinning prescriptions in terms of agreement with reference conditions and functional aspects of resilience. The ICO method resulted in a distribution of tree clumps and openings within the range of reference patterns, while the basal area and spacing approaches resulted in uniform patterns inconsistent with known reference conditions. Susceptibility to insect mortality was lower in basal area and spacing prescriptions, but openings and corresponding opportunities for regeneration and in situ climate adaptation were fewer. Operationally, the method struck a balance between providing clear targets for spatial pattern directly linked to reference conditions, sufficient flexibility to achieve other restoration objectives, and implementation efficiency. The need to track pattern targets during implementation and provide immediate feedback to marking crews was a key lesson. The ICO method, especially when used in combination with climate analog reference targets, offers a practical approach to restoring spatial patterns that are likely to enhance resilience and climate adaptation.

2013

10.1016/j.foreco.2012.11.007

DeLonge, Marcia; Basche, Andrea

Managing grazing lands to improve soils and promote climate change adaptation and mitigation: a global synthesis

RENEWABLE AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SYSTEMS

The potential to improve soils to help farmers and ranchers adapt to and mitigate climate change has generated significant enthusiasm. Within this discussion, grasslands have surfaced as being particularly important, due to their geographic range, their capacity to store substantial quantities of carbon relative to cultivated croplands and their potential role in mitigating droughts and floods. However, leveraging grasslands for climate change mitigation and adaptation will require a better understanding of how farmers and ranchers who rely on them for their livelihoods can improve management and related outcomes. To investigate opportunities for such improvements, we conducted a meta-analysis of field experiments that investigated how soil water infiltration rates are affected by a range of management options: adding complexity to grazing patterns, reducing stocking rates or extended rest from grazing. Further, to explore the relationships between observed changes in soil water infiltration and soil carbon, we identified papers that reported data on both metrics. We found that in 81.9% of all cases, responses of infiltration rates to identified management treatments (response ratios) were above zero, with infiltration rates increasing by 59.3 +/- 7.3%. Mean response ratios from unique management categories were not significantly different, although the effect of extended rest (67.9 +/- 8.5%, n = 140 from 31 experiments) was slightly higher than from reducing stocking rates (42.0 +/- 10.8%; n = 63 from 17 experiments) or adding complexity (34.0 +/- 14.1%, n = 17 from 11 experiments). We did not find a significant effect of several other variables, including treatment duration, mean annual precipitation or soil texture; however, analysis of aridity indices suggested that grazing management may have a slightly larger effect in more humid environments. Within our database, we found that 42% of complexity studies, 41% of stocking rate studies and 29% of extended rest studies also reported at least some measure of soil carbon. Within the subset of cases where both infiltration rates and carbon were reported, response ratios were largely positive for both variables (at least 64% of cases had positive mean response ratios in all management categories). Overall, our findings reveal that a variety of management strategies have the potential to improve soil water infiltration rates, with possible benefits for soil carbon as well. However, we identified a shortage of well-replicated and detailed experiments in all grazing management categories, and call for additional research of both soil water and soil carbon properties for these critical agroecosystems.

2018

10.1017/S1742170517000588

Fortini, Lucas Berio; Kaiser, Lauren R.; LaPointe, Dennis A.

Fostering real-time climate adaptation: Analyzing past, current, and forecast temperature to understand the dynamic risk to Hawaiian honeycreepers from avian malaria

GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION

Various vector control options are increasingly being considered to safeguard forest birds in their natural habitats from avian malaria transmission. However, vector control options require localized deployment that is not logistically, ethically, ecologically, nor economically viable everywhere and all the time. Based on thermal tolerances of the sporogonic stages of avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum) parasite and its vector, the southern house mosquito (Culex quinquefasciatus), we examined the long-term weather trends for three high value, forest bird refuges (Alakai Wilderness Preserve on Kaua'i, Hanawi Natural Area Reserve on Maui, and Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge on Hawai'i Island) to understand the temporal and site-specific differences of temperature-driven suitability for localized avian malaria transmission. On average, Alakai had mean ambient temperatures suitable for both the vector's immature stage development and parasite sporogonic development most of the time (85.3%), indicating that observed variability in vector abundance or disease transmission may be driven by other factors. At higher elevation sites like Hakalau and Hanawi, current mean ambient temperatures suitable only for vector development prevail (91.7% and 96.6%, respectively), while mean ambient temperatures for both vector and parasite sporogonic development seldom occur (4.4% and 0% respectively). Our results not only show differences in the temperature suitability for transmission across elevation, but also different levels of vulnerability to avian malaria transmission with any additional projected increase in temperature. For instance, under a conservative warming scenario of 1.0 degrees C, the joint temperature suitability of parasite and vector development increases at higher elevation sites such as Hakalau (+35.8%) and Hanawi (+15.4%). While mean ambient temperatures suitable for both vector and parasite development already occur most of the time at Alakai, the occurrence also increases (+8.4%) as well under this conservative warming scenario. By linking current site-specific weather data to real-time weather forecasts, we developed a real-time avian malaria warning system to assist managers in identifying conditions when vector control is most needed at these three selected study sites. This online tool determines when conditions are likely to be suitable for local development of P. relictum and C. quinquefasciatus at Alakai, Hanawi, and Hakalau. This tool illustrates how managers can incorporate climate and current weather patterns into decision making without having to consider the uncertainties of long-term climatic and ecological projections.

2020

10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01069

Cai, Xitian; Riley, William J.; Zhu, Qing; Tang, Jinyun; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Bisht, Gautam; Randerson, James T.

Improving Representation of Deforestation Effects on Evapotranspiration in the E3SM Land Model

JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS

Evapotranspiration (ET) plays an important role in land-atmosphere coupling of energy, water, and carbon cycles. Following deforestation, ET is typically observed to decrease substantially as a consequence of decreases in leaf area and roots and increases in runoff. Changes in ET (latent heat flux) revise the surface energy and water budgets, which further affects large-scale atmospheric dynamics and feeds back positively or negatively to long-term forest sustainability. In this study, we used observations from a recent synthesis of 29 pairs of adjacent intact and deforested FLUXNET sites to improve model parameterization of stomatal characteristics, photosynthesis, and soil water dynamics in version 1 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELMv1). We found that default ELMv1 predicts an increase in ET after deforestation, likely leading to incorrect estimates of the effects of deforestation on land-atmosphere coupling. The calibrated model accurately represented the FLUXNET observed deforestation effects on ET. Importantly, the search for global optimal parameters converged at values consistent with recent observational syntheses, confirming the reliability of the calibrated physical parameters. Applying this improved model parameterization to the globe scale reduced the bias of annual ET simulation by up to -600 mm/year. Analysis on the roles of parameters suggested that future model development to improve ET simulation should focus on stomatal resistance and soil water-related parameterizations. Finally, our predicted differences in seasonal ET changes from deforestation are large enough to substantially affect land-atmosphere coupling and should be considered in such studies. Plain Language Summary Deforestation changes Earth's surface characteristics and affects the water cycle and climate. Although Earth system modeling is an important tool to understand the effects of deforestation, current models have large uncertainties. Here we used FLUXNET-based observations to identify biases in representing deforestation effects on evapotranspiration (ET) in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). Results showed these biases are mostly associated with the representation of trees, not with smaller vegetation types (e.g., grasses). We then used the observations to optimize model parameters and improved simulations of ET and sensible heat fluxes following deforestation. Globally, these improvements led to a reduction in ET bias of 600 mm/year. This improved model allows improved estimates of the effects of deforestation on the water cycle and climate and could benefit forest management and climate adaptation strategies.

2019

10.1029/2018MS001551

Le, Thi Ha Lien; Kristiansen, Paul; Vo, Brenda; Moss, Jonathan; Welch, Mitchell

Understanding factors influencing farmers' crop choice and agricultural transformation in the Upper Vietnamese Mekong Delta

AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS

CONTEXT: The Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is an Asian mega -delta which is vulnerable to climate change and sea level rise, and is undergoing demographic change. Farmers are encouraged to shift from rice monocultures to more diversified and flood -based cropping options to adapt to climate change, lessen negative environmental impacts and manage labour productivity. However, this transformation takes place slowly, especially in the flood -zone areas of the Upper VMD. There is currently limited understanding of farmers' complex decision -making that considers the dynamic interactions between farmers, socio-economic circumstances and biophysical environments in this sub -region. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to investigate the key factors driving farmers' decisions to switch between rice monocultures and other flood adaptive crops, and to provide lessons learnt and policy recommendations for sustainable and resilient agricultural transformation in the Upper VMD. METHODS: The study developed an agent -based model to simulate individual decision making in the Upper VMD. The model was parameterised with secondary data on social, policy, economic and biophysical drivers and validated by comparing the simulation results with real data in the baseline. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to gain insights into influencing factors. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The agent -based model shows that when farmers seek profit maximisation, the most influential determinants of their crop choice are high dyke construction, farmers' risk preference, perceptions of environmental sustainability, knowledge and market access of new alternatives, and labour availability. Considering the current context where the majority of farmers depend on high dykes, the transition away from rice monocultures and high dyke cropping systems, as envisaged by the Government, needs to occur gradually over an extended period and be contingent on a combination of measures that help implement existing policies at the local level. This includes discouraging high dyke construction; innovative extension services to raise farmer awareness of environmental sustainability and potential flood -adaptive cropping alternatives; targeted policies and actions for risk averse farmers; and market -based solutions to improve market access and mechanisation. SIGNIFICANCE: This study contributes to the current discourse on sustainable and resilient agricultural development in the VMD. The agent -based model provides insights into the farmers' crop choices in the flood zone and factors influencing their choices. These are important inputs for locally targeted policy planning and implementation.

2024

10.1016/j.agsy.2024.103899

Niderkorn, V; Martin, C.; Bernard, M.; Le Morvan, A.; Rochette, Y.; Baumont, R.

Effect of increasing the proportion of chicory in forage-based diets on intake and digestion by sheep

ANIMAL

There is a lot of evidence that chicory could be a highly palatable and nutritious source of forage for ruminants, well adapted to climate change and dry conditions in summer, thanks to its resistance to drought and high water content. This study aimed to describe the effect of incorporating chicory to ryegrass or to a ryegrass-white clover mixture on feeding behaviour, digestive parameters, nitrogen (N) balance and methane (CH4) emissions in sheep. In total, three swards of ryegrass, white clover and chicory were established and managed in a manner ensuring the forage use at a constant vegetative stage throughout the experiment. In all, four dietary treatments (pure ryegrass; binary mixture: 50% ryegrass-50% chicory; ternary mixture: 50% ryegrass-25% white clover-25% chicory; and pure chicory) were evaluated in a 4x4 replicated Latin square design with eight young castrated Texel sheep. Each experimental period consisted of an 8-day diet adaptation phase, followed by a 6-day measuring phase during which intake dynamics, chewing activity, digestibility, rumen liquid passage rate, fermentation end-products, N balance and CH4 emissions were determined. Data were analysed using a mixed model and orthogonal contrasts were used to detect the potential associative effects between ryegrass and chicory. The daily voluntary dry matter intake was lower for pure ryegrass than for diets containing chicory (P<0.001) and increased quadratically from 1.39 to 1.74 kg/day with increasing proportion of chicory. Huge positive quadratic effects (P<0.001) between ryegrass and chicory were detected on eating time and eating rate just after feeding indicating an increase of the motivation to eat with mixtures, whereas rumination activity decreased linearly with the proportion of chicory (P<0.001). The organic matter digestibility was similar among treatments (around 80%), but a strong positive quadratic P<0.001) effect was observed on liquid passage rate suggesting that chicory allowed fast particle breakdown in the rumen. Animals fed with the ryegrass-white clover-chicory mixture had the higher urinary N losses (P<0.001), whereas retained N per day or per g N intake was greater when the proportion of chicory was at least 50% (P<0.001) being similar to 40% greater than for the other treatments. The CH4 yield was lower with pure chicory than with the other treatments (P<0.001) for which emissions were similar. In conclusion, mixing ryegrass and chicory in equal proportions produces a synergy on voluntary intake and an improved N use efficiency likely due to complementarity in chemical composition, increased motivation to eat and faster ruminal particle breakdown.

2019

10.1017/S1751731118002185

Ugbaje, S. U.; Odeh, I. O. A.; Bishop, T. F. A.

Fuzzy measure-based multicriteria land assessment for rainfed maize in West Africa for the current and a range of plausible future climates

COMPUTERS AND ELECTRONICS IN AGRICULTURE

Crop production in West Africa is largely under rainfed conditions, making the system vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. However, the impact of future climate on the geographic range of many crops in West Africa is still uncertain. This is exacerbated by considerable uncertainty in projecting future West African climate by global circulation models (GCMs). In this paper, the current land suitability for rainfed maize (Zea mays L.) production in West Africa and how it would change in response to a range of future climate changes were assessed. A novel non-additive approach involving the integration of a fuzzy measure modelling procedure and the Choquet integral to deal with non-linear relationships among criteria was introduced. The supervised and unsupervised variants of the approach and the Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) aggregators were evaluated and compared using data on the current climate, soil characteristics, and actual maize yield estimates at some locations across the region. The supervised fuzzy measure modelling outperformed the unsupervised variant and the OWA operators, demonstrating the importance of considering interaction among criteria and incorporating human reasoning in multicriteria analysis. Consequently, the supervised modelling approach was used to estimate suitability scores for rainfed maize for the current and a range of plausible future climates which were generated from unique combinations of temperature and rainfall percentile values (5th, 50th and 95th) from 25 and 32 GCMs projections under the RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. Under the current climate in West Africa, the combined suitable/highly suitable areas for rainfed maize production are in the humid savanna zones. In contrast, the forest region to the south exhibited moderate suitability with the semi-arid savanna zones being marginally suitable. Relative to the current climate in which 91.3% of West Africa is at least moderately suitable for maize production, suitability for maize will change in at least 43% of West Africa in response to future climate change. Across all scenarios and years, future suitability in the semi-arid region of the Sudano-Sahelian savannas shows strong sensitivity to uncertainty in rainfall projections. However, regardless of the trajectory of future rainfall projection, the 95th percentile temperature projection will decrease suitability in about 15% of the West African region by 2080 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Because of the incorporation of uncertainties of future climate projections in this analysis, the results from this study can be used in the development of flexible climate adaptation strategies.

2019

10.1016/j.compag.2019.01.011

Bocco, Gerardo; Solis Castillo, Berenice; Orozco-Ramirez, Quetzalcoatl; Ortega-Iturriaga, Adrian

Terraced agriculture in the adaptation to climatic variability in the Mixteca Alta, Oaxaca, Mexico

JOURNAL OF LATIN AMERICAN GEOGRAPHY

Terrace agriculture in Latin America has existed for millennia. It is the result of local, traditional knowledge on slope management, and has adapted to social and environmental change. Agriculture is being affected by climate variability, i.e. random changes of inter-annual variation of temperature and precipitation. This variability has increased with climate change, affecting food security and increasing poverty over peasant communities that rely on rainfed agriculture. For agriculture adaptation to climate change, most research attention has been paid to agroecology and agrobiodiversity management, while the role of agriculture terracing has been less studied as an adaptation strategy. The objective of this paper was to determine how terrace management contributes to the agriculture adaptation to climatic variability in peasant communities in the Mixteca Alta, Oaxaca. Located in southeast Mexico, this is a very diverse region in terms of geology, landforms and biotic resources where terrace agriculture has been practiced for at least 3400-3500 BP. Mixteca Alta is higher than 2000 m.a.s.l., and the climate is temperate with seasonal summer rainfall. The research method was qualitative, ethnographic and participative, using semi structured interviews as primary tool. The results of interviews were grouped in four categories: climate changes and their impact on the agriculture calendar; productive systems; characteristics of terraces for agriculture; and social and economic problems of peasant communities. Interviewees indicated that the main changes have been on quality and quantity of the precipitation, specifically a decrease in total rainfall but an increase in rainfall intensity, a delayed onset of the rainy season and an early start of the midsummer heat. These changes have resulted in a delay in maize sowing and in an increase in the potential exposure of crops to frost. Early cultivation of traditional cajete maize (using residual soil moisture) in terraces was acknowledged as an efficient practice facing these changes. Interviewees recognized that terrace flat terrains, with deeper soils and higher residual soil moisture than sloping soils, allowed for coping with climatic changes and water scarcity. Cajete maize is part of the cultural heritage of the indigenous communities in this region, but is being negatively affected by a double exposure: to climate change and to adverse agricultural policies that favor large scale market agriculture and neglect family farming. However, in a context of intense climate change processes, this traditional farming practice is an important staple source for the rural population in this region.

2019

10.1353/lag.2019.0006

Cattivelli, Valentina

Macro-Regional Strategies, Climate Policies and Regional Climatic Governance in the Alps

CLIMATE

This paper describes the macro-regional governance framework behind the climate adaptation policies that are currently in place in the Alpine area. Through this discussion, it specifically considers the implications of the regional governance of South Tyrol and Lombardy as case studies. Despite rising concern at the European level, there are still no specific guidelines in place for climate change governance at the macro-regional level. Macro-regions encompass multiple regions that have certain shared morphological characteristics. To address climate changes that occur here, they adopt optional larger-scale strategies without adequately considering territorial and governmental specificities at the regional level. Each individual region adopts specific climate adaptation strategies to deal with the challenges of the territories they govern, without considering the effects on their neighbours, decentralises climate policies to the lowest tiers of government, and encourages participation from individuals and non-governmental organisations. The Alpine macro-region is governed by three separate international/transnational institutions at the macro-regional level and is subject to different regulations from each of the 48 regions/autonomous provinces. One of these regions is Lombardy, which is particularly exposed to the effects of climate change due to having the highest values for land consumption and pollution in Italy. From the administrative point of view, it is an ordinary region, which means that it has the same legislative competences of the other Italian regions. South Tyrol is entirely mountainous. Being an autonomous province, it benefits from greater legislative autonomy than ordinary regions. Based on documental analysis of climate adaptation strategies, findings demonstrate that the preferred governance structure involves the presence of a coordinating institution (such as the province in South Tyrol or the region in Lombardy) that decides climate action, along with several other local institutions and stakeholders that have less decision-making power. Its preferred mechanism for addressing specific climate challenges is the definition of specific regulations and the draft of regional and mono-sectoral plans. These regulations do not relate strongly to wider-scale strategies at the macro-regional level, but are inspired by their principles and priorities. At both definition and implementation levels, the participation of local organisations is limited and not incentivised. Administratively, South Tyrol enjoys greater autonomy, whereas Lombardy must comply more closely with state regulations that limit its decision-making freedom.

2023

10.3390/cli11020037

Kaushal, Nitin; Babu, Suresh; Mishra, Adit; Ghosh, Nilanjan; Tare, Vinod; Kumar, Ravindra; Sinha, Phanish Kumar; Verma, Ram Ujagir

Towards a Healthy Ganga-Improving River Flows Through Understanding Trade Offs

FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE

Scores of Indians living worldwide, since the times immemorial have revered river Ganga. The very presence of Ganga is not only critical from a socio-cultural perspective; but it contributes to various economic and livelihood activities for the people residing in the basin. It is one of the most complex river basins in the world, in terms of the number of people residing in its basin space and the pressure on its water resources. Thus, the river is facing multiple challenges. There is a growing debate in India for improving the health of the Ganga River, mainly at two fronts, i.e., its water quality and quantity. WWF-India along with its partners is working towards the conservation of Ganga since last decade. Whilst the work has been multi-dimensional, ranging from the issues of flows in the river to water pollution, climate change adaptation and habitat and biodiversity conservation; however, in this paper the aspect of adequate flows in the river Ganga is discussed. During 2015-16, along with partners, VVWF-India conducted an action research study in over 2 million hectares of culturable command area of two irrigation systems taking off from River Ganga, to understand the barriers to implement Environmental Flows (E-Flows) in the critical stretch of river Ganga (between Haridwar and Triveni Sangam Allahabad). Under this initiative, the team tried to bridge the knowledge gap about potential trade-offs for implementation of E-Flows in a critical stretch of Ganga. The team made an attempt to understand the surface water allocation and water use scenario in western and central part of the state of Uttar Pradesh, where the Ganga water is used for agricultural purposes through major irrigation infrastructure. The E-Flows recommendations for critical locations downstream of two barrages, i.e., headworks of two major irrigation schemes, were developed. This paper discusses approaches for management of trade-offs to restore E-Flows in this stretch of Ganga and includes various management options-like (i) promotion of irrigation water use efficiency and (ii) institutional aspects. The paper argues that, whilst there is a widespread apprehension that, from the Ganga river water resources use, any curtailment in the allocation quota for irrigation would lead to an adverse impact on the farming community. However, actually after assessing the trade-offs, it can be inferred that although the E-Flows implementation in this stretch of Ganga would require enhancement of water in the river, but that requirement may not be substantial. Toward the end of the paper, challenges and opportunities for E-Flows implementation in the Upper Ganga are discussed.

2019

10.3389/fenvs.2019.00083

Arbuthnott, Katherine; Hajat, Shakoor; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris

Changes in population susceptibility to heat and cold over time: assessing adaptation to climate change

ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH

Background: In the context of a warming climate and increasing urbanisation (with the associated urban heat island effect), interest in understanding temperature related health effects is growing. Previous reviews have examined how the temperature-mortality relationship varies by geographical location. There have been no reviews examining the empirical evidence for changes in population susceptibility to the effects of heat and/or cold over time. The objective of this paper is to review studies which have specifically examined variations in temperature related mortality risks over the 20th and 21st centuries and determine whether population adaptation to heat and/or cold has occurred. Methods: We searched five electronic databases combining search terms for three main concepts: temperature, health outcomes and changes in vulnerability or adaptation. Studies included were those which quantified the risk of heat related mortality with changing ambient temperature in a specific location over time, or those which compared mortality outcomes between two different extreme temperature events (heatwaves) in one location. Results: The electronic searches returned 9183 titles and abstracts, of which eleven studies examining the effects of ambient temperature over time were included and six studies comparing the effect of different heatwaves at discrete time points were included. Of the eleven papers that quantified the risk of, or absolute heat related mortality over time, ten found a decrease in susceptibility over time of which five found the decrease to be significant. The magnitude of the decrease varied by location. Only two studies attempted to quantitatively attribute changes in susceptibility to specific adaptive measures and found no significant association between the risk of heat related mortality and air conditioning prevalence within or between cities over time. Four of the six papers examining effects of heatwaves found a decrease in expected mortality in later years. Five studies examined the risk of cold. In contrast to the changes in heat related mortality observed, only one found a significant decrease in cold related mortality in later time periods. Conclusions: There is evidence that across a number of different settings, population susceptibility to heat and heatwaves has been decreasing. These changes in heat related susceptibility have important implications for health impact assessments of future heat related risk. A similar decrease in cold related mortality was not shown. Adaptation to heat has implications for future planning, particularly in urban areas, with anticipated increases in temperature due to climate change.

2016

10.1186/s12940-016-0102-7

Yang, Yuanjian; Zheng, Zuofang; Yim, Steve Y. L.; Roth, Matthias; Ren, Guoyu; Gao, Zhiqiu; Wang, Tijian; Li, Qingxiang; Shi, Chune; Ning, Guicai; Li, Yubin

PM2.5 Pollution Modulates Wintertime Urban Heat Island Intensity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Megalopolis, China

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Heavy PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter equal to or less than 2.5 mu m) pollution and urban heat island (UHI) pose increasing threats to human health and living environment in populated cities. However, how PM2.5 pollution affects the UHI intensity (UHII) has not been fully understood. The impacts of PM2.5 on the wintertime UHII in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei megalopolis of China are explored during 2013-2017. The results show that the UHII at the time of daily maximum/minimum temperature (UHIImax/UHIImin) exhibits a decreasing/increasing tendency as PM2.5 concentration increases, causing a continuous decrease in the diurnal temperature range. These effects are mediated via aerosol-radiation interaction (aerosol-cloud interaction) under clear-sky (cloudy) condition. The changes in PM2.5 concentration further cause different relative trends of UHII(ma)x/UHIImin/diurnal temperature range across different cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, which are likely related to the differences in both the PM2.5 composition and city size. This study provides insights on how air pollution affects urban climate and would help to design effective mitigation strategies. Plain Language Summary A detailed understanding of the relationship between PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter equal to or less than 2.5 mu m) and the urban heat island (UHI) effect is significant for climate change adaption, planning, and sustainable development in urban regions. While the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) megalopolis of China is among the areas with the highest population densities and fastest urbanization rates in the world, the impacts of PM2.5 pollution on UHI, along with their regional differences in the BTH megalopolis, remain unclear. This study demonstrates that different PM2.5 concentrations in the BTH region pose various influences on the UHI intensities and their change rates in different cities of varying sizes. The UHI intensities during daytime and nighttime, respectively, exhibit weakening and strengthening tendency as PM2.5 concentration increases. These effects are mediated via aerosol-radiation interaction under clear-sky condition and aerosol-cloud interaction in cloudy weather. The relative changes in the UHI magnitudes were mainly determined by PM2.5 composition and city size. The asymmetrical influences of PM2.5 on the daytime and nighttime UHI intensities caused continuous decreases in the diurnal temperature ranges in the urban areas as the pollution level increased. Our study improves the understanding of urban climate affected by air pollution and provides a scientific basis for the mitigation of UHI impacts.

2020

10.1029/2019GL084288

Afrin, Sadia; Chowdhury, Farhat Jahan; Rahman, Md Mostafizur

COVID-19 Pandemic: Rethinking Strategies for Resilient Urban Design, Perceptions, and Planning

FRONTIERS IN SUSTAINABLE CITIES

From the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis, the scientific community has been continuously trying to assess the virus, its socio-environmental impacts, regulatory/adaptation policies, and plans. The emergency is to develop pandemic-resilient city planning and management in order to tackle the infectious diseases during COVID-19. Such development includes the reframing of unsustainable urban patterns, hazards, and social inequalities to be prepared for the emerging cases. In this study, we focus on the assessment of disaster risk management (DRM), which will help to develop pandemic-resilient urban strategies (response, mitigation, and preparedness phase) through analyzing previously published literature. Short- and long-term recommendations for pandemic resilience urban planning and design have also been provided. In the response phase, implementation of the smart and resilient city design and policies has been highlighted to identify disease transmission. In the mitigation phase, new technological approaches can be adopted for better management of present and future pandemics. The physical (urban access, infrastructure, environmental factors, and land use patterns) and non-physical (socio-cultural, governance, and economic factors) aspects of resilient urban strategies have been focused, which may help to develop understanding of health- and disaster-related risks in pandemic. In the preparedness phase, proactive measures such as capacity building of people toward any outbreak and different simulation processes (models of transmission pattern) can be adopted for future pandemics. We also discuss about the enhancement of urban resiliency in housing, public spaces, and cities that may bring the effective outcome of DRM framework to combat pandemic. The study focuses on the major lessons that can be adopted for post-pandemic urban resilient planning related to disaster management and climate change adaptation, preventing extensive challenges of sustainability apart. In the following months and years, it will be difficult to assess various changes to develop urban planning and design in the post-COVID-19 world. However, this study expresses the possibility of creating good opportunities for policymakers and city planners to undertake significant transformative and advanced actions during the three different phases of DRM. This study presents a novel approach to delineate the scope of DRM framework in achieving more resilient cities (RC) to tackle future pandemics. This study will also crucially help the planners and decision-makers in better assessing and addressing the strategic and resilient urban design and planning approach in future.

2021

10.3389/frsc.2021.668263

Abdel-Fattah, Ahmad; Al Hiary, Masnat

A participatory multicriteria decision analysis of the adaptive capacity-building needs of Jordan's agribusiness actors discloses the indirect needs downstream the value chain as post-requisites to the direct upstream needs

FRONTIERS IN SUSTAINABLE FOOD SYSTEMS

Climate adaptive capacity-building initiatives and activities in developing countries, particularly those implemented by developmental agencies and international organizations, commonly focus on the upstream direct adaptive capacity-building needs of targeted vulnerable sectors. However, overlooking a holistic climate-adaptive capacity-building of a vulnerable sector down to the last link of its value chain renders inadequate contribution, jeopardizes the adaptation intervention, and prevents achieving a high level of buy-in of the chain actors for the results of the sought capacity-building programs. Thus, this study developed a hybrid system-wide and participatory (focus groups-based) multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to conduct adaptive-capacity needs assessments for the actors of the agribusiness value chain of the developing country of Jordan. Our holistic approach enabled highlighting the sector's climate vulnerability along the value chain, conducting self-regulated adaptive training needs assessment (TNA) of the sector's actors and identifying and prioritizing their real adaptive capacity-building needs. This approach proved to be uniquely advantageous in comparison to the sector's commonly used questionnaire-based surveys that are limited-participatory, researcher-regulated, and subsystem-oriented approaches. The advantages of this hybrid hands-on and wide-ranging MCDA-TNA approach are evident from its revelation of unique results. The approach enabled actors of such a highly vulnerable sector to spontaneously identify and prioritize the indirect downstream climate adaptive capacity-building needs surprisingly over the direct needs. This is because the actors considered the indirect needs more important to their businesses and livelihoods than the direct needs, thus considering the indirect needs as post-requisites of the fate of the direct upstream needs. The hybrid approach also enabled the beneficiaries to formulate the intervention outcomes, unveil the factors ignored by the conventional researcher-controlled approaches, secure high buy-in of the self-attained results, and prioritize the actual adaptive capacity-building demands. This robust combination of qualitative research methods and tools could be straightforwardly applied to design and conduct efficient and cost-effective adaptive capacity-building programs, especially during time-restricted and resource-limited interventions. The results of such types of quick and cost-effective qualitative investigations of adaptive capacity-building needs could be considered a preliminary and a first step toward deeper and more extensive quantitative studies, if needed.

2023

10.3389/fsufs.2022.1026432

Jiang, Jie; Zhou, Tianjun

Observational Constraint on the Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Emission and Anthropogenic Aerosol Removal to Tibetan Plateau Future Warming

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

A decline of anthropogenic aerosol (AA) emission is expected worldwide over the coming decades. But the climate effects of aerosol removal and greenhouse gases (GHG) emission at regional scale are poorly distinguished and constrained. Taking the Tibetan Plateau (TP) as an instance, analyses of the state-of-the-art climate models participating in the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project imply that while the observed warming from 1961 to 2020 is predominantly attributed to GHG emission, the future temperature rise will be influenced by the combined effects of persistent increase in GHG concentration and reduction of AA emission. Here, we develop a new constraint method considering the changed contribution of AA forcing. Constrained by detected individual external forcings, the joint contributions of GHG (1.74 & DEG;C) and AA forcings (0.10 & DEG;C) will lead to a warming around 1.85 & DEG;C over the TP during mid-century (2041-2060) relative to 1995-2014 under SSP2-4.5 scenario, which is 0.44 & DEG;C cooler than the raw projection. The rapid warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has led to increased risks to ecological environment and even the livelihoods and health of the people. A reliable projection on future warming and a deeper understanding of the contributions of the effects of anthropogenic aerosol (AA) removal and greenhouse gases (GHG) emission are necessary for climate change adaptation and mitigation activities. Here, using the state-of-the-art climate models participating in the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project, we found that the while the GHG emission has and will continue to warm the TP from 1961 to 2100, the changes in AA emission have partly offset the warming trend induced by GHG forcing before the late 2000s but will accelerate the warming rate induced by GHG forcing in the future. According to on our new constraint method considering the changed emission condition of AA, the joint contributions of GHG emission (1.74 & DEG;C) and AA removal (0.10 & DEG;C) will lead to a warming around 1.85 & DEG;C over the TP during mid-century (2041-2060) relative to 1995-2014 under intermediate-emission scenario. Both the effects of GHG and AA to TP future warming are overestimated by the state-of-the-art climate models. Anthropogenic aerosol removal will accelerate the Tibetan Plateau (TP) warming induced by greenhouse gas emission over the coming decadesThe TP will warm by 1.85 & DEG;C (2.69 & DEG;C) in 2041-2060 (2081-2100) relative to 1995-2014 under intermediate-emission scenarioConstrained responses to individual external forcings projects weaker TP warming than the raw projections

2023

10.1029/2023GL105427

Onur, A. Ceren; Tezer, Azime

Ecosystem services based spatial planning decision making for adaptation to climate changes

HABITAT INTERNATIONAL

Climate change adaptation is a rising global issue and has become the primary issue for transnational organisations and EU institutions. Particularly in developing and dynamic cities like Istanbul, the pressure of rapid urbanisation, institutional and legislative uncertainties are expected to create new vulnerabilities in ecosystems and their services. Climate change can cause new vulnerabilities in ecosystem services (ESs) through events such as floods, heat-waves, and droughts brought on by rises in temperatures and changes in precipitation. These vulnerabilities may affect the well-being of inhabitants and interfere with the reaching of sustainable development goals in the future. Istanbul has a unique geographical location for biological diversity when compared with other settlements in the region, and the urban development dynamics of the region play a significant role in the well-being of ecological units and biological diversity of the Istanbul Metropolitan Area (Ozhatay, Byfield, & Atay, 2003; Tezer, 2005; Tezer et al., 2008). This paper aims to define which ESs are vulnerable due to both LCLU change caused by urbanisation and potential impacts of climate change. Particular importance is given to the result of the survey done with related stakeholders as it is used to define and to verify the existing and future vulnerabilities of ESs in Istanbul. Regarding the close relationship between ESs and LCLU, the impact of changes in LCLU on key ESs are evaluated by developing LCLU scenarios. Climate change scenarios are used in this paper to understand the possible future climatic conditions of Istanbul and their impact on LCLU and ESs. These two sub-results are prepared according to scenario analyses and are evaluated together to address the future vulnerabilities of ESs. Integration of ESs and climate change adaptation strategies into spatial planning (EEA, 2010) seems to be both necessary and urgent. Therefore, a spatial planning framework that is climate change adapted and ESs oriented is proposed as a key tool to achieve a climate resilient, sustainable development in Istanbul. The framework used in this paper can be used to develop relevant strategies and planning tools by considering climate change adaptive policies for other rapidly developing settlements. In brief, this paper aims to integrate ecosystems and their services into spatial planning by using relevant mapping of ESs, which will be utilised for the climate adaptive spatial policy development process for the Istanbul case. This paper has been prepared under the auspices of The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) Project No. 110K350.

2015

10.1016/j.habitatint.2015.01.008

Taskin, Eren; Boselli, Roberta; Fiorini, Andrea; Misci, Chiara; Ardenti, Federico; Bandini, Francesca; Guzzetti, Lorenzo; Panzeri, Davide; Tommasi, Nicola; Galimberti, Andrea; Labra, Massimo; Tabaglio, Vincenzo; Puglisi, Edoardo

Combined Impact of No-Till and Cover Crops with or without Short-Term Water Stress as Revealed by Physicochemical and Microbiological Indicators

BIOLOGY-BASEL

Simple Summary Farming systems in which no-till (NT) and cover crops (CC) are preferred as alternatives to conventional practices have the promise of being more resilient and climate smart. Our field study aimed to assess the long-term impact of NT plus CC, with vs. without short-term water stress, on soil microbial biodiversity, enzymatic activities, and the distribution of C and N pools within soil aggregates. We found that the diversity of bacteria and fungi in the soil was positively affected by NT + CC, especially under water stress conditions. Under NT + CC, the presence of important plant growth-promoting rhizobacteria was revealed. Soil enzymatic activity confirmed the depleting impact of conventional tillage. Soil C and N were increased under NT + CC due to their inclusion into large soil aggregates that are beneficial for long-term C and N stabilization in soils. Water stress was found to have detrimental effects on aggregates formation and limited C and N inclusion within aggregates. The microbiological and physicochemical parameters correlation supported the hypothesis that long-term NT + CC is a valuable strategy for sustainable agroecosystems, due to its contribution to soil C and N stabilization while enhancing the biodiversity and enzymes. Combining no-till and cover crops (NT + CC) as an alternative to conventional tillage (CT) is generating interest to build-up farming systems' resilience while promoting climate change adaptation in agriculture. Our field study aimed to assess the impact of long-term NT + CC management and short-term water stress on soil microbial communities, enzymatic activities, and the distribution of C and N within soil aggregates. High-throughput sequencing (HTS) revealed the positive impact of NT + CC on microbial biodiversity, especially under water stress conditions, with the presence of important rhizobacteria (e.g., Bradyrhizobium spp.). An alteration index based on soil enzymes confirmed soil depletion under CT. C and N pools within aggregates showed an enrichment under NT + CC mostly due to C and N-rich large macroaggregates (LM), accounting for 44% and 33% of the total soil C and N. Within LM, C and N pools were associated to microaggregates within macroaggregates (mM), which are beneficial for long-term C and N stabilization in soils. Water stress had detrimental effects on aggregate formation and limited C and N inclusion within aggregates. The microbiological and physicochemical parameters correlation supported the hypothesis that long-term NT + CC is a promising alternative to CT, due to the contribution to soil C and N stabilization while enhancing the biodiversity and enzymes.

2021

10.3390/biology10010023

Rao, Purba H.; Thamizhvanan, Arun

Impacts of climate change Survey of mitigation and adaptation strategies of junior corporate executives in India

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGIES AND MANAGEMENT

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to explore whether the private sector consider voluntary involvement in efforts to combat the impacts of climate change in the lines mitigation approaches and adaptation approaches. Today's world has increasingly become aware of the adverse effects of climate change and its impact on the poor, though the latter impact is not that well known. To address these impacts, recommendations exist that follow two different though interrelated approaches - mitigation and adaptation. Design/methodology/approach - Using a survey questionnaire as the research instrument and a sampling frame of 350 junior corporate executives, an empirical study was conducted in the Chennai area in southern part of India to evaluate/measure the linkages between awareness to climate change, its impact on the poor and the willingness of private sector to act on adaptation as well as mitigation strategies. Findings - From the data analysis, it emerges that there is significant awareness about the impacts of climate change, though the awareness to vulnerability of the poor is not yet significant in Chennai area in the private sector. However, the study concludes that there does exist a significant linkage between awareness and the willingness to support adaptation strategies on the part of junior corporate executives. Research limitations/implications - The study is country specific because the research was carried out in a defined region in India. Practical implications - Because the study brought out the result that private sector was willing to participate in adaptation strategies, extensive awareness building can be carried out for corporate executives and plan out activities which will enable them to participate in adaptation strategies which would help the poor in India to help address the devastations caused by Climate Change from time to time. Social implications - Executives taking up the Climate Change adaptation strategy would help protect and benefit all communities especially the poor in the country. Companies operating in India would find an avenue to reach out in their efforts to touch communities around them. Employees in such companies may be organized and gathered together to participate in such reach-out activities on the part of the companies. Originality/value - This paper fulfils urgent need to inspire the corporate executives to take up initiatives related to climate change. The paper lays the groundwork on which an array of corporate activities can be developed to implement the adaptation strategies. Further extensive thinking can follow this research as to where and how exactly private sector can help.

2014

10.1108/IJCCSM-12-2012-0069

Amponsah, William; Dallan, Eleonora; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios, I; Marra, Francesco

Climatic and altitudinal controls on rainfall extremes and their temporal changes in data-sparse tropical regions

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY

Sub-Saharan Africa's economy and livelihood are primarily dependent on agriculture, which makes it highly vulnerable to the impacts of extreme weather events and climate change. Modelling and quantifying extreme rainfall and its temporal changes in such environments could thus provide crucial information for design, insurance, management, ecology and climate adaptation. Rain gauge networks in the area are relatively sparse, and often characterized by missing data, which hamper the use of extreme-value methods for estimating extreme precipitation quantiles. In this study, we adopted the Simplified Metastatistical Extreme Value approach for the estimation of extreme return levels based on ordinary events (i.e., all the independent realizations of the variable of interest), which was shown to be more accurate than traditional extreme-value methods in the presence of short data records. We examined data from 66 rain gauges covering diverse hydro-climatic regions across Ghana with the aim of (i) validating the robustness of the statistical approach, (ii) characterising the climatic and altitudinal controls on the occurrence, frequency and intensity of rainfall extremes, and (iii) quantifying recent changes in the characteristics of extremes. We found that a two-parameter Weibull distribution well approximates the tail of the daily rainfall distribution throughout the area. Our statistical approach can quantify extremes with largely reduced uncertainties (7-17% uncertainty in the 100-year return levels computed using 10 years of data versus 11-62% of extreme-value based methods). Extreme precipitation statistics (daily intensity distribution, number of wet days, extreme rainfall quantiles) are found to significantly depend on latitude, so that the four latitudinally layered hydro-climatic regions typically adopted in the area well represent spatial variations. Elevation significantly affects the tail heaviness of the daily intensity distribution and thus extreme rainfall quantiles. Temporal changes during the period 1978-2018 are found to be non-homogeneous in the area as well as within the four hydro-climatic regions, but are homogeneous in three altitude-based regions. We report contrasting trends in extreme return levels in low-elevation (<200 m a.s.l.) and hilly regions, related to contrasting changes in the daily intensity distribution. Statistically significant positive trends in extreme daily rainfall amounts are observed in the inland low-elevation region of the Volta river basin, which call for further investigation of changes in future precipitation extremes in this extremely important hydrological region in SubSaharan Africa.

2022

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128090

Morgan, Trish

The techno-finance fix: A critical analysis of international and regional environmental policy documents and their implications for planning

PROGRESS IN PLANNING

This article is concerned with the interaction of international, regional and national policy on climate change and sustainability, and the implications of these policy dimensions for planning. With the scientific consensus pointing to unequivocal human influence on the ecosystem, the issue of how best to manage climate change and ecological sustainability is arguably now a matter for economic, political, policy and planning domains. However, despite the warnings of scientists that 'business as usual' economic accumulation is no longer an option, this analysis of international and regional policy suggests that in the main, solutions are proffered that merely shift forms of capital accumulation and enforce 'business as usual', rather than providing transformative trajectories to plan for climate change adaptation and mitigation. This article traces key documents from an international level including United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, to EU regional policy, and sectoral policy at a sample national level. This is with a view to providing a theoretical backdrop, and a summary of selected relevant documentation that planners may be required to consider with respect to climate change issues. This article may therefore be considered in part, as a 'map' of the policy landscape for planners, highlighting the policy tensions and the conflicts that exist between international, regional and national levels of policymaking. These tensions largely lie between the areas of economic and ecological stability, and usually fail to reconcile contradictions between economic growth and protection of the ecosystem. The article introduces the concept of the 'techno-finance fix' to analyse and critique the dominant solutions to climate change. These solutions involve a dovetailing of a hope in emergent, new and not yet-existing technologies, with a hope that the markets will fund the correct types of technological innovation deemed necessary to mitigate climate change. Therefore, the implications for planning involve an imperative to respond to climate change, and knowledge in the key aspects of climate change policy. However, the response at a planning level depends on which dominant narratives are being forwarded from the top down at a multi-layered policy level. This work therefore suggests that the 'techno-finance fix' is a dominant approach to climate change mitigation and adaptation, and that planning for climate change is thus informed by this dominant narrative, to the marginalising of alternative solutions, including those outside the market or technology.

2018

10.1016/j.progress.2016.06.001

Deines, Jillian M.; Swatantran, Anu; Ye, Dening; Myers, Brent; Archontoulis, Sotirios; Lobell, David B.

Field-scale dynamics of planting dates in the US Corn Belt from 2000 to 2020

REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT

Crop planting dates are a dynamic feature of agricultural systems that respond to short-and long-term climate signals, crop and cultivar selection, and technology changes. Planting date records are essential for yield gap analyses, accurate crop modeling, and tracking farmer adaptations to weather and climate change. Although planting dates have high variation at local scales due to heterogeneity in farm resources and decision-making, available long-term data on planting dates are largely restricted to aggregated regional statistics or, at best, satellite-derived datasets with limited spatiotemporal extent and at resolutions unable to distinguish individual fields. Here, we generated retrospective annual field-scale (30 m) planting date maps for both maize and soy-beans spanning 2000-2020 across a 12-state region in the United States Corn Belt based on Landsat satellite data and a large ground sample of over 28,000 maize and soybean fields. Using training data from 2015 to 2020 for model selection, we found that planting date predictions improved with harmonic regression of Landsat data and additional annual weather covariates. The preferred random forest model approximately doubled performance compared to a null model based on state median planting dates, capturing 47% of field-level variation for maize (mean absolute error, MAE = 7.4 days) and 44% for soybeans (MAE = 7.5 days) against held-out ground truth test data for 2008-2014. We also evaluated the full 2000-2020 dataset with state agricultural statistics, finding strong agreement with median planting dates for maize (R-2 = 0.76, MAE = 4.4 days) and slightly lower agreement for soybeans (R-2 = 0.65, MAE = 5.4 days) when aggregated to the state level. We then used this new dataset to analyze environmental determinants of planting dates at a finer-scale than previously possible, con-trolling for unobserved variation at the sub-state district level. We found that during 2000-2020, each standard deviation increase in early-season rainfall delayed planting by similar to 2.5 days, and fields with higher soil productivity ratings tended to be planted earlier. We did not find meaningful trends over the last two decades in planting dates for maize or soybeans, in contrast to trends towards earlier planting dates late last century and predicted for this period in climate adaptation studies. We hypothesize increases in early season rainfall or persisting early -season frost risks may have inhibited these shifts towards earlier planting. Remotely sensed planting dates will be a useful tool for yield gap analyses, crop simulation modeling, and ongoing assessment of climate adaptation.

2023

10.1016/j.rse.2023.113551

Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P.; Antle, J. M.; Nelson, G. C.; Porter, C.; Janssen, S.; Asseng, S.; Basso, B.; Ewert, F.; Wallach, D.; Baigorria, G.; Winter, J. M.

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and pilot studies

AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology Team Protocols are presented to guide coordinated climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology research activities around the world, along with AgMIP Cross-Cutting Themes that address uncertainty, aggregation and scaling, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other regional and global trends. The organization of research activities by geographic region and specific crops is described, along with project milestones. Pilot results demonstrate AgMIP's role in assessing climate impacts with explicit representation of uncertainties in climate scenarios and simulations using crop and economic models. An intercomparison of wheat model simulations near Obregon, Mexico reveals inter-model differences in yield sensitivity to [CO2] with model uncertainty holding approximately steady as concentrations rise, while uncertainty related to choice of crop model increases with rising temperatures. Wheat model simulations with mid-century climate scenarios project a slight decline in absolute yields that is more sensitive to selection of crop model than to global climate model, emissions scenario, or climate scenario downscaling method. A comparison of regional and national-scale economic simulations finds a large sensitivity of projected yield changes to the simulations' resolved scales. Finally, a global economic model intercomparison example demonstrates that improvements in the understanding of agriculture futures arise from integration of the range of uncertainty in crop, climate, and economic modeling results in multi-model assessments.

2013

10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.09.011

Wu, Shaohong; Liu, Lulu; Gao, Jiangbo; Wang, Wentao

Integrate Risk From Climate Change in China Under Global Warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C.

EARTHS FUTURE

Risk of climate-related impacts results from the interaction of climate-related hazards (including hazardous events and trends) with the vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems. Despite the commitment of the Paris Agreement, the integrate research on climate change risk combining risk-causing factors and risk-bearing bodies, the regional differences in climate impacts are still missing. In this paper we provide a quantitative assessment of hazards and socioeconomic risks of extreme events, risks of risk-bearing bodies in China under global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C based on future climate scenarios, and quantitative evaluation theory for climate change risk. For severe heat waves, hazards might significantly intensify. Affected population under 2.0 degrees C warming might increase by more than 60% compared to that of 1.5 degrees C. Hazards of severe droughts and floods might strengthen under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Economic losses might double between warming levels of 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C, and the population affected by severe floods might continuously increase. Under the integrate effects of multiple disasters, the regions with high population and economic risks would be concentrated in eastern China. The scope would gradually expand to the west with socioeconomic development and intensification of extreme events. High ecological risks might be concentrated in the southern regions of the Yangtze River Basin, while the ecological risk in northern China would expand. High agriculture yield risks might be distributed mainly in south of the North China Plain, the Sichuan Basin, south of the Yangtze River, and west of Northwest China, and the risk levels might continuously increase. Plain Language Summary. Based on the climate and socioeconomic scenario data from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, risks from climate change were identified under different warming levels, considering socioeconomic damage and ecosystem and food production losses. The relatively developed areas of eastern China exhibit high risks, and the risks show a westward and northward expansion trend. Socioeconomic damage, natural ecosystem, and food production losses would increase with socioeconomic development and intensification of global warming. We believe that a quantitative assessment of climate change risk should integrate climate-related hazards with the vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems. These results can provide decision-making support for governments and a database for adapting to climate change.

2019

10.1029/2019EF001194

Kang, Shengyu; Yin, Jiabo; Gu, Lei; Yang, Yuanhang; Liu, Dedi; Slater, Louise

Observation-Constrained Projection of Flood Risks and Socioeconomic Exposure in China

EARTHS FUTURE

As the planet warms, the atmosphere's water vapor holding capacity rises, leading to more intense precipitation extremes. River floods with high peak discharge or long duration can increase the likelihood of infrastructure failure and enhance ecosystem vulnerability. However, changes in the peak and duration of floods and corresponding socioeconomic exposure under climate change are still poorly understood. This study employs a bivariate framework to quantify changes in flood risks and their socioeconomic impacts in China between the past (1985-2014) and future (2071-2100) in 204 catchments. Future daily river streamflow is projected by using a cascade modeling chain based on the outputs of five bias-corrected global climate models (GCMs) under three shared socioeconomic CMIP6 pathways (SSP1-26, SSP3-70, and SSP5-85), a machine learning model and four hydrological models. We also utilize the copula function to build the joint distribution of flood peak and duration, and calculate the joint return periods of the bivariate flood hazard. Finally, the exposure of population and regional gross domestic product to floods are investigated at the national scale. Our results indicate that flood peak and duration are likely to increase in the majority of catchments by 25%-100% by the late 21st century depending on the shared socioeconomic pathway. China is projected to experience a significant increase in bivariate flood risks even under the lowest emission pathway, with 24.0 million dollars/km(2) and 608 people/km(2) exposed under a moderate emissions scenario (SSP3-70). These findings have direct implications for hazard mitigation and climate adaptation policies in China. Plain Language Summary Our planet is becoming increasingly vulnerable to the dangers of river flooding, frequently causing significant environmental damage and economic losses. In a warming climate, precipitation extremes are projected to intensify, increasing flood risk as well as its environmental impacts. However, changes in the peak and duration of floods and corresponding socioeconomic exposure under climate change is little studied, particularly in China. By the late 21st century, the exposure of the population and China's total economic outputs/prospects is projected to reach 24.0 million dollars/km(2) and 608 people/km(2), even under considerable greenhouse gas emission. In order to mitigate the potential socioeconomic exposure and vulnerability, the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction is necessary and urgent. Our findings provide valuable information for mitigating hazards and developing climate adaptation policies in China.

2023

10.1029/2022EF003308

Warman, Russell; Watson, Phillipa; Lin, Chia Chin (Amy); Allen, Pam; Beazley, Harriot; Junaidi, Ahmad; Newland, Jamee; Harris, Rebecca

A labour of love: Cross-cultural research collaboration between Australia and Indonesia

GEO-GEOGRAPHY AND ENVIRONMENT

Novel combinations of global conditions, issues under investigation and research alliances require constant reassessment of how to conduct cross-cultural research. Here we recount an exploratory investigation considering cross-cultural research between Australian and Indonesian researchers. This paper sets out a range of considerations for practitioners of cross-cultural research between our two countries. This investigation supports intentions to develop trans-disciplinary climate change adaptation research but is applicable across multiple research topics and disciplines. We engaged a small multi-disciplinary mix of researchers, from both countries, conducted two initial focus groups, and subsequently involved participants in drafting of this paper as an exploration of how being cross cultural could manifest. We highlight that cross-cultural collaborations occur in environments of both cultural differences and power differences. Four main strategies emerged for dealing with the challenges (or opportunities): working respectfully, being reflective of cross-cultural research practice, being flexible, and learning about culture. Overarching these strategies, we found cross-cultural research requires considerable extra (long term) effort to tackle and that this is sustained by researchers' intrinsic motives to care for people and place, making this type of research a distinctive labour of love. Finally, we found similarities between cross-cultural research and climate change adaptation research (even when conducted within one country) where both endeavours call for boundaries of places, cultures and disciplines to be crossed in order to effectively engage with complex topics and environments. Negotiating the liminalities here often defies set formulas and requires a willingness to engage with and 'muddle through' the messiness. Our findings will be of value to those undertaking cross-cultural research across a wide range of issues. This paper addresses research collaboration between Australia and Indonesia and considers challenges and strategies for working at the intersection of cross cultural research collaboration and climate chance adaptation science. Analysis of focus group data from a multi-disciplinary mix of researchers from these two countries highlighted four strategies for dealing with challenges: working respectfully, being reflective of cross-cultural research practice, being flexible, and learning about culture. Overarching these strategies, we found cross-cultural research requires extra effort and that this is sustained by a researcher's intrinsic motivations of care for people and place - a labour of love.

2024

10.1002/geo2.132

Wilcox, Bruce A.; Echaubard, Pierre; de Garine-Wichatitsky, Michel; Ramirez, Bernadette

Vector-borne disease and climate change adaptation in African dryland social-ecological systems

INFECTIOUS DISEASES OF POVERTY

BackgroundDrylands, which are among the biosphere's most naturally limiting and environmentally variable ecosystems, constitute three-quarters of the African continent. As a result, environmental sustainability and human development along with vector-borne disease (VBD) control historically have been especially challenging in Africa, particularly in the sub-Saharan and Sahelian drylands. Here, the VBD burden, food insecurity, environmental degradation, and social vulnerability are particularly severe. Changing climate can exacerbate the legion of environmental health threats in Africa, the social dimensions of which are now part of the international development agenda. Accordingly, the need to better understand the dynamics and complex coupling of populations and environments as exemplified by drylands is increasingly recognized as critical to the design of more sustainable interventions.Main bodyThis scoping review examines the challenge of vector-borne disease control in drylands with a focus on Africa, and the dramatic, ongoing environmental and social changes taking place. Dryland societies persisted and even flourished in the past despite changing climates, extreme and unpredictable weather, and marginal conditions for agriculture. Yet intrusive forces largely out of the control of traditional dryland societies, along with the negative impacts of globalization, have contributed to the erosion of dryland's cultural and natural resources. This has led to the loss of resilience underlying the adaptive capacity formerly widely exhibited among dryland societies. A growing body of evidence from studies of environmental and natural resource management demonstrates how, in light of dryland system's inherent complexity, these factors and top-down interventions can impede sustainable development and vector-borne disease control. Strengthening adaptive capacity through community-based, participatory methods that build on local knowledge and are tailored to local ecological conditions, hold the best promise of reversing current trends.ConclusionsA significant opportunity exists to simultaneously address the increasing threat of vector-borne diseases and climate change through methods aimed at strengthening adaptive capacity. The integrative framework and methods based on social-ecological systems and resilience theory offers a novel set of tools that allow multiple threats and sources of vulnerability to be addressed in combination. Integration of recent advances in vector borne disease ecology and wider deployment of these tools could help reverse the negative social and environmental trends currently seen in African drylands.

2019

10.1186/s40249-019-0539-3

Qin, Xiao-Ling; Wang, Shi-Fu; Meng, Meng

Flood cascading on critical infrastructure with climate change: A spatial analysis of the extreme weather event in Xinxiang, China

ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH

Floods caused by extreme weather events and climate change have increased in occurrence and severity all over the world, resulting in devastation and disruption of activities. Researchers and policy practitioners have increasingly paid attention to the role of critical infrastructure (CI) in disaster risk reduction, flood resilience and climate change adaptation in terms of its backbone functions in maintaining societal services in hazard attacks. The analysed city in this study, Xinxiang (Henan province, China), was affected by an extreme flood event that occurred on 17-23 July 2021, which caused great socio-economic losses. However, few studies have focused on medium-sized cities and the flood cascading effects on CI during this event. Therefore, this study explores the damages caused by this flooding event with links to CI, such as health services, energy supply stations, shelters and transport facilities (HEST infrastructure). To achieve this, the study first combines RGB (red, green blue) composition and supervised classification for flood detection to monitor and map flood inundation areas. Second, it manages a multiscenario simulation and evaluates the cascading effects on HEST infrastructure. Diverse open-source data are employed, including Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data and Landsat-8 OIL data, point-of-interest (POI) and OpenStreetMap (OSM) data. The study reveals that this extreme flood event has profoundly affected croplands and villagers. Due to the revisiting period of Sentinel-1 SAR data, four scenarios are simulated to portray the retreated but 'omitted' floodwater: Scenario 0 is the flood inundation area on 27 July, and Scenarios 1, 2 and 3 are built based on this information with a buffer of 50, 100 and 150 m outwards, respectively. In the four scenarios, as the inundation areas expand, the affected HEST infrastructure becomes more clustered at the centre of the core study area, indicating that those located in the urban centre are more susceptible to flooding. Furthermore, the affected transport facilities assemble in the north and east of the core study area, implying that transport facilities located in the north and east of the core study area are more susceptible to flooding. The verification of the flood inundation maps and affected HEST infrastructure in the scenario simulation support the series method adopted in this study. The findings of this study can be used by flood managers, urban planners and other decision makers to better understand extreme historic weather events in China, improve flood resilience and decrease the negative impacts of such events on HEST infrastructure.

2023

10.1016/j.accre.2023.05.005

Jackson, T. M.; Hanjra, Munir A.; Khan, S.; Hafeez, M. M.

Building a climate resilient farm: A risk based approach for understanding water, energy and emissions in irrigated agriculture

AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS

The links between water application, energy consumption and emissions are complex in irrigated agriculture. There is a need to ensure that water and energy use is closely considered in future industry planning and development to provide practical options for adaptation and to build resilience at the farm level. There is currently limited data available regarding the uncertainty and sensitivity associated with water application and energy consumption in irrigated crop production in Australia. This paper examines water application and energy consumption relationships for different irrigation systems, and the ways in which the uncertainty of different parameters impacts on these relationships and associated emissions for actual farms. This analysis was undertaken by examining the current water and energy patterns of crop production at actual farms in two irrigated areas of Australia (one using surface water and the other groundwater), and then modelling the risk/uncertainty and sensitivity associated with the link between water and energy consumption at the farm scale. Results showed that conversions from gravity to pressurised irrigation methods reduced water application, but there was a simultaneous increase in energy consumption in surface irrigation areas. In groundwater irrigated areas, the opposite is true; the use of pressurised irrigation methods can reduce water application and energy consumption by enhancing water use efficiency. Risk and uncertainty analysis quantified the range of water and energy use that might be expected for a given irrigation method for each farm. Sensitivity analysis revealed the contribution of climatic (evapotranspiration and rainfall) and technical factors (irrigation system efficiency, pump efficiency, suction and discharge head) impacting the uncertainty and the model output and water-energy system performance in general. Flood irrigation systems were generally associated with greater uncertainty than pressurised systems. To enhance resilience at the farm level, the optimum situation envisaged an irrigation system that minimises water and energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Where surface water is used, well designed and managed flood irrigation systems will minimise the operating energy and carbon equivalent emissions. Where groundwater is the dominant use, the optimum system is a well designed and managed pressurised system operating at the lowest discharge pressure possible that will still allow for efficient irrigation. The findings might be useful for farm level risk mitigation strategies in surface and groundwater systems, and for aiding adaptation to climate change.

2011

10.1016/j.agsy.2011.08.003

Tofu, Daniel Assefa; Woldeamanuel, Teshale; Haile, Firafis

Smallholder farmers' vulnerability and adaptation to climate change induced shocks: The case of Northern Ethiopia highlands

JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURE AND FOOD RESEARCH

This study was initiated to analyze smallholder farmers' vulnerability to climate change-induced shocks and identify the adaptation strategies they practice. The study was conducted in the North Wollo and Wag Hemra zones of the Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia. It employed both qualitative and quantitative methods of data collection. The zones and districts were selected purposively based on the frequency of shocks and the sample Kebeles and sample respondents were selected randomly. Quantitative data were collected using a household survey, whereas qualitative data were collected via focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and field observations. While the quantitative data were analyzed by descriptive statistics, the qualitative data were transcribed, coded, organized thematically based on these similarities, and interpreted thematically. The results show that the major climate change-induced shocks in the area were increase in temperature and changes in rainfall-related variables, such as shifts in rainy periods, shortages of rain, and variability of rainfall. In addition, droughts, crop and livestock pests and diseases, and pasture and water scarcity are all widespread in the area. As a result, land degradation and reduced crop and livestock output were identified as the primary impacts due to climate change-induced shocks on smallholder livelihoods. The findings demonstrate that households and communities are extremely vulnerable to climate change-related shocks. To reduce their vulnerability to climate change, smallholder farmers in the area used both autonomous and policy-driven climate change adaptation strategies, such as soil and water conservation practices, haystack preparation, improved crop varieties, fertilizer, pesticide, and herbicide application. Nonetheless, smallholder farmers' vulnerability to climate change-induced shocks persists, owing to the limitations in the implementation of existing adaptation strategies in the area. Limited access to finance, information, and technologies have all been an obstacle in the sector, preventing comprehensive adaptation to climate change. As a result, smallholder farmers' capacity to adopt both autonomous and policy-driven climate change adaptation strategies must be strengthened. Hence use of improved crop and livestock varieties, application of good agricultural practices, construction of micro-and small-scale irrigation structures, and provision of well-coordinated early warning systems are examples of adaptation strategies that could be implemented to reduce vulnerability to climate change-induced shocks and increase farmers' adaptive capacity.

2022

10.1016/j.jafr.2022.100312

Pandey, Bhanu; Ghosh, Annesha

Urban ecosystem services and climate change: a dynamic interplay

FRONTIERS IN SUSTAINABLE CITIES

Urban ecosystems play a crucial role in providing a wide range of services to their inhabitants, and their functioning is deeply intertwined with the effects of climate change. The present review explores the dynamic interplay between urban ecosystem services and climate change, highlighting the reciprocal relationships, impacts, and adaptation strategies associated with these phenomena. The urban environment, with its built infrastructure, green spaces, and diverse human activities, offers various ecosystem services that enhance the wellbeing and resilience of urban dwellers. Urban ecosystems offer regulatory services like temperature control, air quality upkeep, and stormwater management, plus provisioning like food and water. They also provide cultural benefits, promoting recreation and community unity. However, climate change poses significant challenges to urban ecosystem services. Rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and increased frequency of extreme weather events can disrupt the functioning of urban ecosystems, impacting the provision of services. Heatwaves and urban heat island effects can compromise human health and energy demands, while changes in rainfall patterns can strain stormwater management systems and lead to flooding. Moreover, climate change can disrupt biodiversity and ecological processes, affecting the overall resilience and sustainability of urban ecosystems. To address these challenges, cities are adopting various adaptation strategies that recognize the interdependence between urban ecosystems and climate change. Green infrastructure interventions, such as the creation of urban parks, green roofs, and community gardens, aim to mitigate the impacts of climate change by enhancing the regulation of temperature, improving air quality, and reducing stormwater runoff. Additionally, urban planning and design approaches prioritize compact and walkable neighborhoods, promoting public transportation and reducing reliance on fossil fuels. Furthermore, engaging communities in the management of urban ecosystems and climate change adaptation measures is crucial for ensuring equitable distribution of ecosystem services and building social resilience. Therefore, the review article highlights a comprehensive understanding of the dynamic interrelationship between urban ecosystem services and climate change and their implications. By recognizing and integrating the contributions of urban ecosystems, cities can develop sustainable and resilient strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change, ensuring the wellbeing and habitability of urban environments for present and future generations.

2023

10.3389/frsc.2023.1281430

Han, Yang; Lu, Hongfei; Qiao, Dongmei

Integrated effects of meteorological factors, edaphic moisture, evapotranspiration, and leaf area index on the net primary productivity of Winter wheat-Summer maize rotation system

FIELD CROPS RESEARCH

Net primary productivity (NPP) assumes a pivotal role in the realm of plant growth, organic matter production, and carbon cycling. Nevertheless, the mechanism underlying the integrated effects of meteorological factors, soil water content (SWC), evapotranspiration (ET), and leaf area index (LAI) on the NPP in agricultural systems remains unclear. Elucidating the evolution pattern of NPP in agricultural system and its responding mechanism to meteorological factors, SWC, ET, and LAI hold pronounced significant for sustainable agricultural operation, agroecological maintenance, and climate-adaptive strategy optimization. This study focused on the winter wheat - summer maize rotation, a predominant agricultural system, in the North China Plain (NCP). Spatiotemporal pattern of NPP was clarified using geostatistical technique, Mann-Kendall test, Sen's Slope, and Rescaled Range analysis. The mechanism underlying the integrated response of NPP to different meteorological factors, SWC, ET, and LAI was revealed through spatiotemporal coupling correlation analysis, Random Forest, and Structural Equation Modeling. The results demonstrated a widespread annual increase in NPP across the majority of rotation areas from 2000 to 2019, with a prominent geospatial heterogeneity. Meteorological factors, SWC, ET, and LAI collectively explained 70.27% of NPP variability. Of which, ET, FAPAR, P, LAI, Tmax, Tmin, and the SWC in 40-100 cm were predominant factors affecting NPP, explaining 63.59% of its variability. These factors exerted multidimensional effects on NPP, instead of a unilateral induction. Despite the limited direct effect, precipitation indirectly improved NPP by significantly increasing the SWC in 40-100 cm soil horizon. The latter not only directly enhanced NPP, but also indirectly promoted NPP by facilitating ET. In context of drought and water deficit, maintaining adequate soil moisture in the 40-100 cm layer through irrigation emerges as a potential strategy to ensure sustainable productivity. ET exerted the greatest comprehensive effect and the largest direct promotion on NPP. LAI, FAPAR, and SWC induced NPP variation indirectly through affecting ET. These consistently underscored the major relationship between productivity and water use. Future intensive agriculture in the NCP should prioritize the trade-off between carbon sequestration and water loss at plant physiological level. Improving the carbon sequestration per unit of water consumption through optimizing the photosynthesistranspiration mechanism is an imperative climate-adaptative pathway for achieving sustainable food provision and mitigating water crisis.

2023

10.1016/j.fcr.2023.109080

Weiss, Hannah S.; Bierman, Paul R.; Dubief, Yves; Hamshaw, Scott D.

Optimization of over-summer snow storage at midlatitudes and low elevation

CRYOSPHERE

Climate change, including warmer winter temperatures, a shortened snowfall season, and more rain-on-snow events, threatens nordic skiing as a sport. In response, over-summer snow storage, attempted primarily using woodchips as a cover material, has been successfully employed as a climate change adaptation strategy by high-elevation and/or high-latitude ski centers in Europe and Canada. Such storage has never been attempted at a site that is both low elevation and midlatitude, and few studies have quantified storage losses repeatedly through the summer. Such data, along with tests of different cover strategies, are prerequisites to optimizing snow storage strategies. Here, we assess the rate at which the volume of two woodchip-covered snow piles (each similar to 200 m(3)), emplaced during spring 2018 in Craftsbury, Vermont (45 degrees N and 360 m a.s.l.), changed. We used these data to develop an optimized snow storage strategy. In 2019, we tested that strategy on a much larger, 9300 m(3) pile. In 2018, we continually logged air-to-snow temperature gradients under different cover layers including rigid foam, open-cell foam, and woodchips both with and without an underlying insulating blanket and an overlying reflective cover. We also measured ground temperatures to a meter depth adjacent to the snow piles and used a snow tube to measure snow density. During both years, we monitored volume change over the melt season using terrestrial laser scanning every 10-14 d from spring to fall. In 2018, snow volume loss ranged from 0.29 to 2.81 m(3) d(-1), with the highest rates in midsummer and lowest rates in the fall; mean rates of volumetric change were 1.24 and 1.50 m(3) d(-1), 0.55% to 0.72% of initial pile volume per day. Snow density did increase over time, but most volume loss was the result of melting. Wet woodchips underlain by an insulating blanket and covered with a reflective sheet were the most effective cover combination for minimizing melt, likely because the aluminized surface reflected incoming short-wave radiation while the wet woodchips provided significant thermal mass, allowing much of the energy absorbed during the day to be lost by long-wave emission at night. The importance of the pile surface-area-to-volume ratio is demonstrated by 4-fold lower rates of volumetric change for the 9300 m(3) pile emplaced in 2019; it lost < 0.16% of its initial volume per day between April and October, retaining similar to 60% of the initial snow volume over summer. Together, these data demonstrate the feasibility of over-summer snow storage at midlatitudes and low elevations and suggest efficient cover strategies.

2019

10.5194/tc-13-3367-2019

Pardo, G.; del Prado, A.; Martinez-Mena, M.; Bustamante, M. A.; Rodriguez Martin, J. A.; Alvaro-Fuentes, J.; Moral, R.

Orchard and horticulture systems in Spanish Mediterranean coastal areas: Is there a real possibility to contribute to C sequestration?

AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT

Agriculture in the Mediterranean basin is currently contributing to greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and in the future is expected to be strongly affected by climate change. Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) via soil organic matter (SOM) improvement is widely regarded as a way to both mitigate and adapt to climate change. Using as a case study the Mediterranean coastal area in Spain, which is regarded as one of the most intensively managed areas in Europe for orchards and horticultural cropping, we analyzed the potential for climate change mitigation of introducing different practides that are expected to increase SOC. We selected both as a single measure and in cOmbination, cover cropping and application to the soil of the available underutilized exogenous organic matter (EOM), treated (e.g. composted or digested) or non-treated. These practices were compared against a baseline scenario that intended to reflect the current practices in the area (e.g. all livestock manure produced in the area is applied to the agricultural soil). We carried out a modelling exercise at the regional scale using the agricultural activity data and current climatic conditions as inputs. Modelling nins were performed coupling a widely used dynamic model of SOC turnover (RothC) with a model to simulate the GHG emissions from EOM processing or storage prior to soil application (SIMSWASTE). Results indicate that the most promising practice, considered as a single measure and with respect to the baseline, was introducing cover crops in woody cropping systems. This practice resulted in an increase of 0.44 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) during the first 20 years (range 0.41-0.52 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1)) and led to a total SOC accumulation of about 30 Tg C after 100 years. Amendment of all agricultural land With available underutilized EOM resulted in an increase of up to 0.09 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) (range 0.07-0.16 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1)) as a single measure (Urban waste) and 0.13 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) (range 0.11-0.21 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1)) as a combined measure (urban waste and composted agroindustry by-products), leading to a total SOC accumulation of about 7 Tg C (urban waste) and 10 Tg C (urban waste and composted agroindustry by-products) after 100 years. Manure anaerobic digestion or composting as a single measure did not result in significant SOC changes but, if GHG emissions and savings from manure storage and processing management stages are considered, they could help to reduce about 4.3 (anaerobic digestion) or 1.1 Tg CO(2)eq yr(-1) (composting) in the study area, which represents a significant amount compared with total agricultural emissions in Spain.

2017

10.1016/j.agee.2016.09.034

Rezaie, Behnam; Hosseinpanahi, Farzad; Siosemardeh, Adel; Darand, Mohammad; Bannayan, Mohammad

Shifting the Sowing Date of Winter Wheat as a Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change in a Mediterranean-Type Environment

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PLANT PRODUCTION

Environmental stresses such as high temperature and drought due to climate change are strongly impacting crop production, including wheat. In this study, Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) from 2015 up to 2100; the purpose was to know any possible climate changes at the Sanandaj (3525MODIFIER LETTER PRIME, 47 degrees 00MODIFIER LETTER PRIME) and Qorveh (35 degrees 16MODIFIER LETTER PRIME, 47 degrees 79MODIFIER LETTER PRIME) locations. Prediction of the flowering date, maturity date, grain-filling period, and potential yield of winter wheat during the studied period were carried out by using the LINTUL model. Then, seven possible sowing dates (from September 27 to November 27) were examined as a strategy for adoptation to the effects of future climate change and also possible changes of the developmental stages and evaluation of final grain yield of winter wheat under all the three RCP scenarios. The findings indicated that the maximum and minimum temperatures tend to increase at both locations under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In general, change in flowering date will not be significant, particularly at the Sanandaj location, but the maturity date will be earlier than current dates at both stations under all three scenarios. There will be a slight decrease in the grain-filling period, particularly at the Sanandaj location. The total decline in the grain-filling period for the Sanandaj station would be about 1.35, 1.7, and 3.8 days by the year 2100 for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The average winter wheat yield changes for the 2015-2100 period would be about - 88.8, - 201.9, and - 364.9 kg ha(-1) at the Sanandaj location and 222.7, - 135.15, and - 348.5 kg ha(-1) at the Qorveh location, under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Finally, it is found that earlier sowing dates would lead to earlier flowering and maturity dates. At Sanandaj and Qorveh stations, bringing sowing date forward from the current dates (October 27) to September 27 (first possible sowing date) would increase yield by 26 and 12 percent, and its delay to November 27 (the latest possible sowing date) would decrease yield by 19 and 11 percent, respectively. It seems that the expedition of the sowing date in the Mediterranean-type environment can act as a reliable strategy in response to future climate changes. Shifting the sowing date causes the grain-filling period to be less exposed to high temperatures and drought stress in late spring, which may results in even higher wheat yield.

2022

10.1007/s42106-022-00202-7

Rao, Jifa; Zheng, Bohong; Li, Jiayu

Exploring the Effect of Aspect Ratio (H/W) on Thermal Environment in Multiple Climate Zones with Open-Source Data

BUILDINGS

For a country with multiple climate zones, analyzing the impacts of urban design in different climate zones is a prerequisite to climate adaptation policies. However, countries advanced in climate adaptation strategies are mostly located in a single climate zone, leading to a lack of research on climate adaptation policies for multiple climate countries. As China is launching the urban zoning management policy, this research takes China as an example to explore a technique to quickly distinguish the impact of urban design in multiple climate zones by combing the open-source data with the Envi-met tool, where the open-source data indicate the data that can be obtained from public platforms such as the internet and Envi-met is a microclimate simulation tool. First, the open street map tool, one of the open-source data, was used to abstract the typical models of each climate city. Then, open-source meteorological data were employed as the boundary conditions for Envi-met simulation. Lastly, after the Envi-met simulation, the impacts of aspect ratio (H/W) on multiple climate indicators in seven climate cities were analyzed with the meteorological interpolation method. The analytical results show that H/W has a stronger ability to regulate the thermal comfort of high latitude cities. In Guangzhou and Changsha, the maximum differences of PET caused by H/W are only 0.61 degrees C (Changsha) and 0.63 degrees C (Guangzhou). H/W has the strongest regulating effect on the thermal comfort in Harbin, with the highest value of 8.62 degrees C. The regulating effects of H/W on outdoor PET in other 4 cities are 4.37 degrees C in Urumqi, 3.29 degrees C in Xining, 1.29 degrees C in Xi'an, and 0.76 degrees C in Kunming. In addition, H/W mainly affects PET by modifying the radiant temperature. Compared with mean radiant temperature, the effects of H/W on air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed are negligible. Longitude regulates the occurrence time of the coldest and hottest thermal environments. Among the seven climate zones in China, the difference in appearance time between the coldest and hottest reaches up to 2 h. For the implementation of urban zoning management policy, in China, high latitude cities are encouraged to high H/W to create a comfortable city. Cities whose latitude is less than 30 degrees may not consider the impacts of H/W on thermal comfort. This method of combining open-source data with Envi-met can serve as a reference for other countries that span multiple climate zones. In addition, these results provide a decision-making basis for the management of H/W in different climate cities of China.

2024

10.3390/buildings14020342

Durant, Sarah M.; Marino, Agnese; Linnell, John D. C.; Oriol-Cotterill, Alayne; Dloniak, Stephanie; Dolrenry, Stephanie; Funston, Paul; Groom, Rosemary J.; Hanssen, Lise; Horgan, Jane; Ikanda, Dennis; Ipavec, Audrey; Kissui, Bernard; Lichtenfeld, Laly; McNutt, J. Weldon; Mitchell, Nicholas; Naro, Elizabeth; Samna, Abdoulkarim; Yirga, Gidey

Fostering Coexistence Between People and Large Carnivores in Africa: Using a Theory of Change to Identify Pathways to Impact and Their Underlying Assumptions

FRONTIERS IN CONSERVATION SCIENCE

Coexistence with large carnivores poses challenges to human well-being, livelihoods, development, resource management, and policy. Even where people and carnivores have historically coexisted, traditional patterns of behavior toward large carnivores may be disrupted by wider processes of economic, social, political, and climate change. Conservation interventions have typically focused on changing behaviors of those living alongside large carnivores to promote sustainable practices. While these interventions remain important, their success is inextricably linked to broader socio-political contexts, including natural resource governance and equitable distribution of conservation-linked costs and benefits. In this context we propose a Theory of Change to identify logical pathways of action through which coexistence with large carnivores can be enhanced. We focus on Africa's dryland landscapes, known for their diverse guild of large carnivores that remain relatively widespread across the continent. We review the literature to understand coexistence and its challenges; explain our Theory of Change, including expected outcomes and pathways to impact; and discuss how our model could be implemented and operationalized. Our analysis draws on the experience of coauthors, who are scientists and practitioners, and on literature from conservation, political ecology, and anthropology to explore the challenges, local realities, and place-based conditions under which expected outcomes succeed or fail. Three pathways to impact were identified: (a) putting in place good governance harmonized across geographic scales; (b) addressing coexistence at the landscape level; and (c) reducing costs and increasing benefits of sharing a landscape with large carnivores. Coordinated conservation across the extensive, and potentially transboundary, landscapes needed by large carnivores requires harmonization of top-down approaches with bottom-up community-based conservation. We propose adaptive co-management approaches combined with processes for active community engagement and informed consent as useful dynamic mechanisms for navigating through this contested space, while enabling adaptation to climate change. Success depends on strengthening underlying enabling conditions, including governance, capacity, local empowerment, effective monitoring, and sustainable financial support. Implementing the Theory of Change requires ongoing monitoring and evaluation to inform adaptation and build confidence in the model. Overall, the model provides a flexible and practical framework that can be adapted to dynamic local socio-ecological contexts.

2022

10.3389/fcosc.2021.698631

van Lanen, Rowin J.; van Beek, Roy; Kosian, Menne C.

A different view on (world) heritage. The need for multi-perspective data analyses in historical landscape studies: The example of Schokland (NL)

JOURNAL OF CULTURAL HERITAGE

The awareness that cultural heritage plays an influential role in shared identities and in both spatial and environmental development has significantly increased in recent years. International collaboration and treaties, such as the 'FARO-convention' in 2005 emphasize the importance of heritage in relation to aspects of human rights and demography. Furthermore, it is becoming increasingly clear that historical perspectives are essential for making well-informed choices regarding environmental challenges (e.g. spatial planning, sustainable development, climate adaptation). This increased awareness not only emphasizes the importance of cultural heritage for present-day challenges, but equally presents a new set of conditions and standards, and requires the development of new methodologies. Besides conservation, more than ever there is a need for cultural heritage to become contextualized and sustainably accessible. The organisational pinnacle of cultural-heritage conservation is world heritage: sites that are judged to contain a set of cultural and/or natural values which are of outstanding value to humanity. However, to what extent world heritage meets these newly set criteria is unknown. Nevertheless, these sites often reflect an eminent status, scientifically as well as economically (i.e. through tourism). Consequently, world heritage often enjoys interest from multiple stakeholders including governmental, scientific, public, and commercial parties, all of whom engage in contrasting activities and have different interests and needs. As a result the need for accessibility and integrated overviews of these sites is high but equally challenging. In this paper we will focus on the world-heritage site of Schokland (NL). This former island in the Dutch Zuiderzee both reflects outstanding historical and archaeological importance. We will show that the dynamics surrounding this site require tailormade conservation methodologies, which greatly depend on data integration. We present a new Historical Geographical Information System (HGIS) specifically designed to integrate cultural and geoscientific data and facilitate dynamic heritage management. Results show that such a system greatly adds to the contextualization and (digital) accessibility of the heritage site and is essential for substantiating conservation methodologies. Furthermore, it shows great research potential for diachronological reconstructions of dynamic-lowland development. The system facilitates multidisciplinary scientific analyses, integrated monitoring, and public outreach and shows great application potential for other (world-)heritage sites.

2022

10.1016/j.culher.2021.11.011

Bregaglio, Simone; Willocquet, Laetitia; Kersebaum, Kurt Christian; Ferrise, Roberto; Stella, Tommaso; Ferreira, Thiago Berton; Pavan, Willingthon; Asseng, Senthold; Savary, Serge

Comparing process-based wheat growth models in their simulation of yield losses caused by plant diseases

FIELD CROPS RESEARCH

Plant diseases are major causes of crop yield losses globally, yet their effects represent a poorly documented source of uncertainty in crop modelling. Ignoring the effects of plant diseases in crop models may lead to large overestimations of current and future crop production levels. Simulation modelling must be seen as a necessary instrument to understand systems and predict their behaviours. This instrument is therefore necessary when profound changes in system structures are envisioned in view of, e.g., ecological intensification or climate adaptation, which necessarily will change injury profiles by plant pathogens and pests. Here, damage mechanisms associated with four major diseases of wheat (brown and yellow rust, septoria tritici blotch and powdery mildew) are considered. These diseases and their damage mechanisms are featured in WHEATPEST, a process-based model for wheat growth under disease. The same damage mechanisms were thus incorporated into four wheat growth models (HERMES, WOFOST_GT, SSM_WHEAT, DSSAT-Nwheat), which did not account for yield losses to diseases before. A benchmark experimental data set from the Netherlands was used to perform two calibration steps to simulate disease-free attainable wheat yields (Ya), first by using the experimentally measured crop development and yields as reference, and second by further using the observed leaf area dynamics. A simulation experiment was then conducted with the five models, with three independent factors: (i) each of the four wheat diseases (individually or combined), (ii) the shape of disease progress curves, and (iii) the maximum disease severity. We analysed the simulated crop growth, actual crop yield (Y), and absolute (YL = Ya - Y) and relative (RYL = YL/Ya) yield loss, at different levels of these three factors. In a last stage of analysis, we simulated the effects of Ya on YL and RYL. Maximum severity of disease had the strongest effect on simulated Y and on YL, while there were also significant differences among models in the simulated YL. Powdery mildew and brown rust were generally associated with higher and lower YL, respectively. Simulated RYL increased as the Ya was decreased. Increase of RYL at lower Ya was attributed to a larger reduction of intercepted radiation at low green leaf area index. This work outlines the rationale for implementing damage mechanisms associated with plant diseases into crop models, and provides the necessary first step towards scenario analyses where the consequences of technology shifts, climate change, and changes in disease patterns may influence the magnitude of yield losses to plant diseases.

2021

10.1016/j.fcr.2021.108108

Saleem, Farhan; Arshad, Arfan; Mirchi, Ali; Khaliq, Tasneem; Zeng, Xiaodong; Rahman, Md Masudur; Dilawar, Adil; Pham, Quoc Bao; Mahmood, Kashif

Observed Changes in Crop Yield Associated with Droughts Propagation via Natural and Human-Disturbed Agro-Ecological Zones of Pakistan

REMOTE SENSING

Pakistan's agriculture and food production account for 27% of its overall gross domestic product (GDP). Despite ongoing advances in technology and crop varieties, an imbalance between water availability and demand, combined with robust shifts in drought propagation has negatively affected the agro-ecosystem and environmental conditions. In this study, we examined hydro-meteorological drought propagation and its associated impacts on crop yield across natural and human-disturbed agro-ecological zones (AEZs) in Pakistan. Multisource datasets (i.e., ground observations, reanalysis, and satellites) were used to characterize the most extensive, intense drought episodes from 1981 to 2018 based on the standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI), standardized streamflow index (SSFI), standardized surface water storage index (SSWSI), and standardized groundwater storage index (SGWI). The most common and intense drought episodes characterized by SPEI, SSFI, SSWSI, and SGWI were observed in years 1981-1983, 2000-2003, 2005, and 2018. SPEI yielded the maximum number of drought months (90) followed by SSFI (85), SSWSI (75), and SGWI (35). Droughts were frequently longer and had a slower termination rate in the human-disturbed AEZs (e.g., North Irrigated Plain and South Irrigated Plain) compared to natural zones (e.g., Wet Mountains and Northern Dry Mountains). The historical droughts are likely caused by the anomalous large-scale patterns of geopotential height, near-surface air temperature, total precipitation, and prevailing soil moisture conditions. The negative values (<-2) of standardized drought severity index (DSI) observed during the drought episodes (1988, 2000, and 2002) indicated a decline in vegetation growth and yield of major crops such as sugarcane, maize, wheat, cotton, and rice. A large number of low-yield years (SYRI <= -1.5) were recorded for sugarcane and maize (10 years), followed by rice (9 years), wheat (8 years), and cotton (6 years). Maximum crop yield reductions relative to the historic mean (1981-2017) were recorded in 1983 (38% for cotton), 1985 (51% for maize), 1999 (15% for wheat), 2000 (29% for cotton), 2001 (37% for rice), 2002 (21% for rice), and 2004 (32% for maize). The percentage yield losses associated with shifts in SSFI and SSWSI were greater than those in SPEI, likely due to longer drought termination duration and a slower termination rate in the human-disturbed AEZs. The study's findings will assist policymakers to adopt sustainable agricultural and water management practices, and make climate change adaptation plans to mitigate drought impacts in the study region.

2022

10.3390/rs14092152

Derkzen, Marthe L.; van Teeffelen, Astrid J. A.; Verburg, Peter H.

REVIEW Quantifying urban ecosystem services based on high-resolution data of urban green space: an assessment for Rotterdam, the Netherlands

JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY

The urban dimension of ecosystem services (ES) is underexposed, while the importance of ES for human well-being is nowhere as evident as in cities. Urban challenges such as air pollution, noise and heat can be moderated by urban green space (UGS), simultaneously providing multiple other services. However, available methods to quantify ES cannot typically deal with the high spatial and thematic resolution land cover data that are needed to better understand ES supply in the urban context. This study derives methods to quantify and map a bundle of six ES as supplied by UGS, using land cover data with high spatial and thematic resolution, and applies these to the city of Rotterdam, the Netherlands. Land cover data comprise eight classes of UGS. Methods are derived from an evidence base on the importance of UGS types for the supply of each of the six ES that was built using literature review. The evidence base reveals that UGS types differ in their contribution to various ES, although the strength of the evidence varies. However, existing indicators for urban ES often do not discriminate between UGS types. To derive UGS-specific indicators, we combined methods and evidence from different research contexts (ES, non-ES, urban, non-urban). Rotterdam shows high spatial variation in the amount of UGS present, and accounting for this in ES supply reveals that ES bundles depend on UGS composition and configuration. While the contribution of UGS types to ES supply differed markedly with UGS type and ES considered, we demonstrate that synergies rather than trade-offs exist among the ES analysed.Synthesis and applications. Our findings underline the importance of a careful design of urban green space (UGS) in city planning for ecosystem services (ES) provision. Based on the latest insights on how different UGS provide ES, the methods presented in this study enable a more detailed quantification and mapping of the supply of ES in cities, allowing assessments of current supply of key urban ES and alternative urban designs. Such knowledge is indispensable in the quest for designing healthier and climate-resilient cities. Our findings underline the importance of a careful design of urban green space (UGS) in city planning for ecosystem services (ES) provision. Based on the latest insights on how different UGS provide ES, the methods presented in this study enable a more detailed quantification and mapping of the supply of ES in cities, allowing assessments of current supply of key urban ES and alternative urban designs. Such knowledge is indispensable in the quest for designing healthier and climate-resilient cities.

2015

10.1111/1365-2664.12469

Parsons, L. A.; Lo, F.; Ward, A.; Shindell, D.; Raman, S. R.

Higher Temperatures in Socially Vulnerable US Communities Increasingly Limit Safe Use of Electric Fans for Cooling

GEOHEALTH

As the globe warms, people will increasingly need affordable, safe methods to stay cool and minimize the worst health impacts of heat exposure. One of the cheapest cooling methods is electric fans. Recent research has recommended ambient air temperature thresholds for safe fan use in adults. Here we use hourly weather reanalysis data (1950-2021) to examine the temporal and spatial evolution of ambient climate conditions in the continental United States (CONUS) considered safe for fan use, focusing on high social vulnerability index (SVI) regions. We find that although most hours in the day are safe for fan use, there are regions that experience hundreds to thousands of hours per year that are too hot for safe fan use. Over the last several decades, the number of hours considered unsafe for fan use has increased across most of the CONUS (on average by similar to 70%), with hotspots across the US West and South, suggesting that many individuals will increasingly need alternative cooling strategies. People living in high-SVI locations are 1.5-2 times more likely to experience hotter climate conditions than the overall US population. High-SVI locations also experience higher rates of warming that are approaching and exceeding important safety thresholds that relate to climate adaptation. These results highlight the need to direct additional resources to these communities for heat adaptive strategies. Plain Language Summary As the globe warms, use of electric fans can help people stay cool if they can remain hydrated and if temperatures are low enough. Yet, there are limits to how hot it can be to safely use a fan because when temperatures are too high, a fan will increase the amount of heat traveling over the skin. We use data based on historical meteorological observations to study the number of hours in the continental US that exceed recommended temperature thresholds for safe fan use. We also examine where climate conditions considered unsafe for fan use overlap with socially vulnerable communities. We find that the geographic extent of temperatures too high for safe fan use is expanding, and the number of safe hours is decreasing. In the last two decades people have experienced double the number of hours with outdoor temperatures that are too hot for safe fan use compared to 50-70 years ago. Additionally, communities in socially vulnerable areas are experiencing higher rates of increases in unsafe hours than the overall population. Locations of particular concern include the southern and western US, highlighting the need to direct resources to invest in alternative forms of cooling in these regions.

2023

10.1029/2023GH000809

Chari, Martin Munashe; Zhou, Leocadia; Hamandawana, Hamisai

Linking Satellite, Land Capability, and Socio-Economic Data for Local-Level Climate-Change-Adaptive Capacity Assessments and Decision Support

SUSTAINABILITY

Climate change is now one of the most formidable threats to the livelihoods of resource-poor communities in low-income developing countries world-wide. Addressing this challenge continues to be undermined by the conspicuous absence of actionable adaptation strategies that are potentially capable of enhancing our capacities to realize the Millennial Sustainable Development Goals that seek to securitize access to adequate food supplies for everybody. This paper attempts to address this limitation by providing an improvised geostatistical methodology that integrates multi-source data to map the adaptive capacities of vulnerable communities in a selected South African local municipality, whose livelihoods are largely dependent on rain-fed agriculture. The development of this methodology was based on the use scripts that were compiled in Python and used to test-try its usefulness through a case-study-based assessment of the climate-change-adaptive capacities of local communities in Raymond Mhlaba Local Municipality (RMLM), Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. A Bayesian maximum entropy framework-based technique was used to overcome the lack of missing soil moisture data, which we included because of its reliable usefulness as a surrogate indicator of climate-change-driven variations in this variable on the sustainability of rain-fed agriculture. Analysis of the results from a sampling universe of 124 communities revealed that 65 and 56 of them had high and medium adaptive capacities, respectively, with the remaining 3 having low adaptive capacities. This finding indicates that more than half of the communities in the municipality's communities have limited capabilities to cope with climate change's impacts on their livelihoods. Although our proposed methodology is premised on findings from a case-study-based investigation, it is still extremely useful because it demonstratively shows that there is tremendous scope for the scientific community to provide objectively informed insights that can be used to enhance the adaptive capacities of those in need of the badly needed but difficult-to-access information. Added to this is the fact that our proposed methodology is not only applicable for use under different environmental settings but also capable of allowing us to cost-effectively tap into the rich, wide-ranging, freely accessible datasets at our disposal. The aim of this submission is to show that although we have the information, we need to address these persevering challenges by exploring innovative approaches to translate the knowledge we have into actionable climate-change-adaptation strategies.

2023

10.3390/su151713120

Chowdhury, Abhiroop; Maiti, Subodh Kumar; Bhattacharyya, Santanu

How to communicate climate change 'impact and solutions' to vulnerable population of Indian Sundarbans? From theory to practice

SPRINGERPLUS

Introduction: Global consciousness on climate change problems and adaptation revolves around the disparity of information sharing and communication gap between theoretical scientific knowledge at academic end and practical implications of these at the vulnerable populations' end. Coastal communities facing socio-economic stress, like densely populated Sundarbans, are the most affected part of the world, exposed to climate change problems and uncertainties. This article explores the successes of a socio-environmental project implemented at Indian Sundarbans targeted towards economic improvement and aims at communicating environmental conservation through organized community participation. Case description: Participatory rural appraisal (PRA) and the wealth rank tool (WRT) were used to form a group based organization with 2100 vulnerable families to give them knowledge about capacity building, disaster management, resource conservation and sustainable agriculture practices. Training was conducted with the selected group members on resource conservation, institution building, alternative income generation activities (AIGA) like, Poultry, Small business, Tricycle van, Organic farming and disaster management in a participatory mode. The climate change 'problems-solutions' were communicated to this socio-economically marginalized and ostracized community through participatory educational theater (PET). Discussion and evaluation: WRT revealed that 45 % of the population was under economic stress. Out of 2100 beneficiaries', 1015 beneficiaries' started organic farming, 133 beneficiaries' adopted poultry instead of resource exploitive livelihood and 71 beneficiaries' engaged themselves with small business, which was the success stories of this project. To mitigate disaster, 10-committees were formed and the endemic knowledge about climate change was recorded by participatory method validated through survey by structured questionnaire. As a part of this project 87 ha of naked deforested mudflat was reclaimed with endangered mangroves involving target community members aimed to sequester CO2, control soil erosion and act as a barrier during natural disasters. Conclusion: This case study concluded that participatory method of communication, aiming not only to communicate theoretical knowledge, but also to devise adaptation strategies through conservation of endemic knowledge, popularizing sustainability through Micro Finance Institutions and promoting AIGA along with motivating vulnerable community to restore degraded forest lands, could be a effective solution to practically combat climate change problems.

2016

10.1186/s40064-016-2816-y

Michaelowa, Axel; Michaelowa, Katharina

Climate or development: is ODA diverted from its original purpose?

CLIMATIC CHANGE

We analyze the interaction of climate and development policy that has taken place since the early 1990s. Increasing dissatisfaction about the results of traditional development cooperation and the appeal of climate policy as a new policy field led to a rapid reorientation of aid flows. At the turn of the century, over 7% of aid flows were spent on greenhouse gas emissions mitigation. However, the contribution of emissions mitigation projects to the central development objective of poverty reduction as specified in the Millennium Development Goals is limited and other project types are likely to be much more effective. Adaptation to climate change can be expected to have higher synergies with poverty alleviation than mitigation, primarily through its impact on health, the conservation of arable land and the protection against natural disasters. An analysis of the Clean Development Mechanism shows that projects addressing the poor directly are very rare; even small renewable energy projects in rural areas tend to benefit rich farmers and the urban population. Use of development aid for CDM projects and / or their preparation via capacity building is thus clearly not warranted. We further analyze whether the use of development aid for climate policy could be justified as a countermeasure against the emission increase related to successful development itself. However, countries that are achieving an improvement of human development from a low level are unlikely to increase their energy consumption substantially. Only at a level where the middle class expands rapidly, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions soar. Thus targeting middle class energy consumption by appliance efficiency standards and public transport-friendly urban planning are the most effective measures to address developing country emissions. Rural renewable energy provision in poor countries has a much higher impact on poverty, but a much lower impact on greenhouse gas emissions. We conclude that while there are valid reasons for long-term collaboration with emerging economies on greenhouse gas mitigation, there should be a separate budget line for such activities to avoid obfuscation of a decline of resources aimed at poverty alleviation. Nevertheless, mitigation will remain attractive for donors because it ensures quick disbursements and relatively simple measures of success. Moreover, mitigation activities in developing countries provide politicians in industrialized countries with a welcome strategy to divert the attention of their constituencies from the lack of success in reducing greenhouse gas emissions domestically.

2007

10.1007/s10584-007-9270-3

Li, Yu; Pang, Bo; Zheng, Ziqi; Chen, Haoming; Peng, Dingzhi; Zhu, Zhongfan; Zuo, Depeng

Assessment of the Urban Extreme Precipitation by Satellite Estimates over Mainland China

REMOTE SENSING

The accurate estimation of urban extreme precipitation is essential for urban design and risk management, which is hard for developing countries, due to the fast urbanization and sparse rain gauges. Satellite precipitation products (SPPs) have emerged as a promising solution. Not only near real-time SPPs can provide critical information for decision making, but post-processed SPPs can also offer essential information for climate change adaption, risk management strategy development, and related fields. However, their ability in urban extreme precipitation estimation has not been examined in detail. This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of four recent SPPs that are post-processed, including IMERG, GSMaP_Gauge, MSWEP, and CMFD, for their ability to capture urban extreme precipitation in mainland China at the national, city, and inner-city scales. The performance of the four SPPs was assessed using daily observations from the 821 urban gauges from 2001 to 2018. The assessment includes: (1) the extreme precipitation estimates from the four SPPs in the total urbanized areas of mainland China were evaluated using correlation coefficients (CC), absolute deviation (AD), relative deviation (RB), and five extreme precipitation indices; (2) The extreme precipitation estimates over 21 Chinese major cities were assessed with the two most important extreme indices, namely the 99th percentile of daily precipitation on wet days (R99) and total precipitation when daily precipitation exceeding R99 (R99TOT); and (3) Bivariate Moran's I (BMI) was adopted to assess the inner-city spatial correlation of R99 and R99TOT between SPPs and gauge observations in four major cities with most gauges. The results indicate that MSWEP has the highest CC of 0.79 and the lowest AD of 1.61 mm at the national scale. However, it tends to underestimate urban precipitation, with an RB of -8.5%. GSMaP_Gauge and IMERG performed better in estimating extreme values, with close extreme indices with gauge observations. According to the 21 major cities, GSMaP_Gauge also shows high accuracy in estimating R99 and R99TOT values, with the best RB and AD in these cities, while CMFD and MSWEP exhibit the highest CC values for R99 and R99TOT, respectively, indicating a strong correlation between their estimates and those obtained from gauge observations. At the inner-city scale, MSWEP shows advantages in monitoring the spatial distribution of urban extreme precipitation in most of cities. The study firstly provided the multiscale assessment of urban extreme precipitation by SPPs over mainland China, which is useful for their applications.

2023

10.3390/rs15071805

Tuler, Seth P.; Dow, K.; Webler, T.

Assessment of adaptation, policy, and capacity building outcomes from 14 processes

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY

In the US alone, there are over 200 tools that support climate adaptation planning, along with a large number of case studies documenting their use. Case studies frequently document positive results. Systematic assessment of processes can provide important benefits, including justification for action and expenditures, promotion of learning and adaptive management, accountability, and ensuring fit with other goals. There are very few such assessments in the context of climate adaptation planning, despite of the emphasis on the development and use of planning tools by federal and state agencies, university researchers, and non-profit organizations. We undertook an effort to assess the outcomes resulting from fourteen applications of the Vulnerability, Consequences, and Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS) process, which we helped develop and implement. VCAPS is designed to facilitate information exchange, co-production of knowledge, and stakeholder collaboration while helping communities appraise climate change-related risks and devise strategies to manage them. Using qualitative interviews we explored the perceived value and the measurable performance outcomes of VCAPS at both individual and community scales occurring 3-10 years after the processes were conducted, allowing participants to take a broader view of success and reflect on how different forms of success emerged over time. Although the assessment of each case is based on a small number of interviews, we learned that VCAPS informed plans and decisions of municipalities, informed actions and decisions of other public and private actors, generated broader support for subsequent actions, helped efforts to secure/seek funding for climate adaptation actions, developed material resources to support planning, and promoted learning among participants. This assessment also reinforces prior work showing that deliberative planning tools/processes are conducive to developing adaptive capacities; processes should be closely coordinated with regular governance activities to impact policy and action; adequate time for deliberation needs to be budgeted; participants need support to think outside the box and consider adaptation strategies that are both incremental and transformational as well as highlight potential undesirable consequences of adaptation; and processes, like VCAPS, produce actionable outcomes when participants agree on the immediacy of the issue. We conclude with observations about the need for evaluation of participatory processes and the challenges of defining success of tools to support municipal climate change adaptation planning.

2020

10.1016/j.envsci.2020.09.003

Vihera-Aarnio, Anneli; Kostiainen, Katri; Piispanen, Riikka; Saranpaa, Pekka; Vapaavuori, Elina

Effects of seed transfers on yield and stem defects of silver birch (Betula pendula Roth)

FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

We studied the effect of seed transfers on survival, yield and stem defects of silver birch (Betula pendula Roth) of North European origin in five parallel provenance trials in Finland. The trials were located at Loppi (60 degrees 39'N) in southern Finland, at Kannonkoski (62 degrees 58'N), Ilomantsi (62 degrees 58'N) and Toholampi (63 degrees 47'N) in central Finland and at Rovaniemi (66 degrees 21'N) in northern Finland. Four trials were growing on moist upland forest sites and one on agricultural land. The material consisted of altogether 38 stand seed origins from Finland, Sweden, Estonia, Great Britain and Russia ranging between latitudes 53 degrees and 67 degrees N. Survival, height, diameter at breast height, stem volume/ha and number of stem defects per tree were assessed when the trees were 19 years old. Seed transfer distance was calculated either as latitudinal or temperature sum difference between the seed origin and the trial location. According to coefficients of determination (R-2), the latitude-based transfer models gave a slightly better fit with the data than the models based on temperature sum differences. Significant differences were found among the origins regarding all studied traits in all trials. In all traits, the pattern of variation in relation to the transfer distance was curvilinear, and the effect of transfer distance was significant A long transfer from both directions led to a reduction in all measured traits. The optimal transfer distance and direction varied depending on the trait and covariate used in the models. According to the latitudinal model, local or slightly more northern origins had highest survival and lowest number of stem defects. Height growth and yield was at highest with the local or slightly more southern origins. A northward transfer of ca. 2 degrees of latitude increased yield, while a southward transfer or a longer northward transfer, decreased the yield. According to the temperature sum model, origins within the limits of approximately +/- 200 d.d. compared to the trial location produced the highest yield. Origins with similar or slightly lower temperature sums compared to the trial locations had highest survival and best stem quality. The current seed transfer guidelines for silver birch in Finland, which recommend transfer distances of 150 km or 150 d.d. at maximum in southward or northward direction, seem still valid. Because of the low gain in expected yield by even moderate northward transfers and the uncertainties in the success of more southern origins in varying future climate, we recommend no changes in seed transfer guidelines.

2013

10.1016/j.foreco.2012.10.030

Avelino, Jacques; Cristancho, Marco; Georgiou, Selena; Imbach, Pablo; Aguilar, Lorena; Bornemann, Gustavo; Laederach, Peter; Anzueto, Francisco; Hruska, Allan J.; Morales, Carmen

The coffee rust crises in Colombia and Central America (2008-2013): impacts, plausible causes and proposed solutions

FOOD SECURITY

Coffee rust is a leaf disease caused by the fungus, Hemileia vastatrix. Coffee rust epidemics, with intensities higher than previously observed, have affected a number of countries including: Colombia, from 2008 to 2011; Central America and Mexico, in 2012-13; and Peru and Ecuador in 2013. There are many contributing factors to the onset of these epidemics e.g. the state of the economy, crop management decisions and the prevailing weather, and many resulting impacts e.g. on production, on farmers' and labourers' income and livelihood, and on food security. Production has been considerably reduced in Colombia (by 31 % on average during the epidemic years compared with 2007) and Central America (by 16 % in 2013 compared with 2011-12 and by 10 % in 2013-14 compared with 2012-13). These reductions have had direct impacts on the livelihoods of thousands of smallholders and harvesters. For these populations, particularly in Central America, coffee is often the only source of income used to buy food and supplies for the cultivation of basic grains. As a result, the coffee rust epidemic has had indirect impacts on food security. The main drivers of these epidemics are economic and meteorological. All the intense epidemics experienced during the last 37 years in Central America and Colombia were concurrent with low coffee profitability periods due to coffee price declines, as was the case in the 2012-13 Central American epidemic, or due to increases in input costs, as in the 2008-11 Colombian epidemics. Low profitability led to suboptimal coffee management, which resulted in increased plant vulnerability to pests and diseases. A common factor in the recent Colombian and Central American epidemics was a reduction in the diurnal thermal amplitude, with higher minimum/lower maximum temperatures (+0.1 degrees C/-0.5 degrees C on average during 2008-2011 compared to a low coffee rust incidence period, 1991-1994, in Chinchina, Colombia; +0.9 degrees C/-1.2 degrees C on average in 2012 compared with prevailing climate, in 1224 farms from Guatemala). This likely decreased the latency period of the disease. These epidemics should be considered as a warning for the future, as they were enhanced by weather conditions consistent with climate change. Appropriate actions need to be taken in the near future to address this issue including: the development and establishment of resistant coffee cultivars; the creation of early warning systems; the design of crop management systems adapted to climate change and to pest and disease threats; and socio-economic solutions such as training and organisational strengthening.

2015

10.1007/s12571-015-0446-9

Southworth, J; Randolph, JC; Habeck, M; Doering, OC; Pfeifer, RA; Rao, DG; Johnston, JJ

Consequences of future climate change and changing climate variability on maize yields in the midwestern United States

AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT

Any change in climate will have implications for climate-sensitive systems such as agriculture, forestry, and some other natural resources. With respect to agriculture, changes in solar radiation, temperature, and precipitation will produce changes in crop yields, crop mix, cropping systems, scheduling of field operations, grain moisture content at harvest, and hence, on the economics of agriculture including changes in farm profitability. Such issues are addressed for 10 representative agricultural areas across the midwestern Great Lakes region, a five-state area including Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. This region is one of the most productive and important agricultural regions in the world, with over 61% of the land use devoted to agriculture. Individual crop growth processes are affected differently by climate change. A seasonal rise in temperature will increase the developmental rate of the crop, resulting in an earlier harvest. Heat stress may result in negative effects on crop production. Conversely, increased rainfall in drier areas may allow the photosynthetic rate of the crop to increase, resulting in higher yields. Properly validated crop simulation models can be used to combine the environmental effects on crop physiological processes and to evaluate the consequences of such influences. With existing hybrids, an overall pattern of decreasing crop production under scenarios of climate change was found, due primarily to intense heat during the main growth period. However, the results changed with the hybrid of maize (Zen Inngs L.) being grown and the specific location in the study region. In general, crops grown in sites in northern states had increased yields under climate change, with those grown in sites in the southern states of the region having decreased yields under climate change. Yields from long-season maize increased significantly in the northern part of the study region under future climate change. Across the study region, long-season maize performed most successfully under future climate scenarios compared to current yields, followed by medium-season and then short-season varieties. This analysis highlights the spatial variability of crop responses to changed environmental conditions. In addition, scenarios of increased climate variability produced diverse yields on a year-to-year basis and had increased risk of a low yield. Results indicate that potential future adaptations to climate change for maize yields would require either increased tolerance of maximum summer temperatures in existing maize varieties or a change in the maize varieties grown.

2000

10.1016/S0167-8809(00)00223-1