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Nishijima, Shigehiro; Eckroad, Steven; Marian, Adela; Choi, Kyeongdal; Kim, Woo Seok; Terai, Motoaki; Deng, Zigang; Zheng, Jun; Wang, Jiasu; Umemoto, Katsuya; Du, Jia; Febvre, Pascal; Keenan, Shane; Mukhanov, Oleg; Cooley, Lance D.; Foley, Cathy P.; Hassenzahl, William V.; Izumi, Mitsuru

Superconductivity and the environment: a Roadmap

SUPERCONDUCTOR SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

There is universal agreement between the United Nations and governments from the richest to the poorest nations that humanity faces unprecedented global challenges relating to sustainable energy, clean water, low-emission transportation, coping with climate change and natural disasters, and reclaiming use of land. We have invited researchers from a range of eclectic research areas to provide a Roadmap of how superconducting technologies could address these major challenges confronting humanity. Superconductivity has, over the century since its discovery by Kamerlingh Onnes in 1911, promised to provide solutions to many challenges. So far, most superconducting technologies are esoteric systems that are used in laboratories and hospitals. Large science projects have long appreciated the ability of superconductivity to efficiently create high magnetic fields that are otherwise very costly to achieve with ordinary materials. The most successful applications outside of large science are high-field magnets for magnetic resonance imaging, laboratory magnetometers for mineral and materials characterization, filters for mobile communications, and magnetoencephalography for understanding the human brain. The stage is now set for superconductivity to make more general contributions. Humanity uses practically unthinkable amounts of energy to drive our modern way of life. Overall, global power usage has been predicted to almost double from 16.5 to 30 TW in the next four decades (2011 Equinox Summit: Energy 2030 http://wgsi.org/publications-resources). The economy with which electrons carry energy compels the continued quest for efficient superconducting power generation, energy storage, and power transmission. The growing global population requires new arable land and treatment of water, especially in remote areas, and superconductivity offers unique solutions to these problems. Exquisite detectors give warning of changes that are otherwise invisible. Prediction of climate and disasters will be helped by future supercomputer technologies that support huge amounts of data and sophisticated modeling, and with the aid of superconductivity these systems might not require the energy of a large city. We present different sections on applications that could address (or are addressing) a range of environmental issues. The Roadmap covers water purification, power distribution and storage, low-environmental impact transport, environmental sensing (particularly for the removal of unexploded munitions), monitoring the Earth's magnetic fields for earthquakes and major solar activity, and, finally, developing a petaflop supercomputer that only requires 3% of the current supercomputer power provision while being 50 times faster. Access to fresh water. With only 2.5% of the water on Earth being fresh and climate change modeling forecasting that many areas will become drier, the ability to recycle water and achieve compact water recycling systems for sewage or ground water treatment is critical. The first section (by Nishijima) points to the potential of superconducting magnetic separation to enable water recycling and reuse. Energy. The Equinox Summit held in Waterloo Canada 2011 (2011 Equinox Summit: Energy 2030 http://wgsi.org/publications-resources) identified electricity use as humanity's largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. Our appetite for electricity is growing faster than for any other form of energy. The communique from the summit said 'Transforming the ways we generate, distribute and store electricity is among the most pressing challenges facing society today .... If we want to stabilize CO2 levels in our atmosphere at 550 parts per million, all of that growth needs to be met by non-carbon forms of energy' (2011 Equinox Summit: Energy 2030 http://wgsi.org/publications-resources). Superconducting technologies can provide the energy efficiencies to achieve, in the European Union alone, 33-65% of the required reduction in greenhouse gas emissions according to the Kyoto Protocol (Hartikainen et al 2003 Supercond. Sci. Technol. 16 963). New technologies would include superconducting energy storage systems to effectively store power generation from renewable sources as well as high-temperature superconducting systems used in generators, transformers and synchronous motors in power stations and heavy-industry facilities. However, to be effective, these systems must be superior to conventional systems and, in reality, market penetration will occur as existing electrical machinery is written off. At current write-off rates, to achieve a 50% transfer to superconducting systems will take 20 years (Hartikainen et al 2003 Supercond. Sci. Technol. 16 963). The Roadmap next considers dc transmission of green power with a section by Eckroad and Marian who provide an update on the development of superconducting power transmission lines in view of recent sustainability studies. The potential of magnetic energy storage is then presented by Coi and Kim, who argue that a successful transition to wind and solar power generation must be harmonized with the conventional electrical network, which requires a storage technology with a fast response and long backup times. Transport. Superconducting Maglev trains and motors for international shipping have the potential to considerably reduce the emissions that contribute to greenhouse gases while improving their economic viability by reducing losses and improving efficiencies. International shipping, alone, contributes 3% of the greenhouse gas emissions. Three sections of the Roadmap identify how high-speed rail can be a major solution to providing fast, low energy, environmentally-friendly transport enabling reduction in automobile and aircraft travel by offering an alternative that is very competitive. With maritime international environmental regulations tightening, HTS motors with the characteristics of high torque and compactness will become important devices for high-performance and low-emission electric ship propulsion systems. A section on the development of a megawatt-class superconducting motor for ship propulsion is presented by Umemoto. Monitoring in manufacturing for waste reduction. Environmental impact from the waste created by the manufacturing sector and the need to make manufacturing efficient can be addressed by terahertz imaging. This technology has great potential in non-destructive testing, industrial process monitoring and control to greatly improve the industry process efficiency and reliability by reducing waste materials and toxic by-products. The section by Du shows how terahertz imaging can provide process and property information such as rust levels under paint that can assist with the reduction of waste in manufacturing and maintenance. Monitoring for naturally occurring disturbances. The environmental and social impact of natural disasters is mounting. Febvre provides the Roadmap for the use of ultra-sensitive magnetometry to understand geomagnetic phenomena and Earth-ionosphere couplings through the study of very small variations of the magnetic field. This magnetic monitoring has many implications for understanding our environment and providing new tools for early warning of natural hazards, either on Earth or in space which will enable us to be better prepared for natural disasters. Restoring environments after military use. Throughout the world, there are many areas confirmed or suspected of being contaminated by unexploded munitions known as unexploded ordnance (UXO). Its presence is the result of wars and training of military forces. Areas affected by UXO contamination are hazardous to the public and have a major influence on the nature of land use. UXO has impact in developed as well as developing nations. For example, the USA has UXO dating back to the American Civil War and countries such as Cambodia are living with landmines as a daily issue due to more recent wars. Underwater UXO has caused severe impacts such as the explosion in 1969 in the waters of Kent in the UK that caused a reading of 4.5 on the Richter scale for earthquake monitors. Another example was a land-based detonation of a 500 kg World War II bomb in Germany killing three people in 2010. There is countless UXO from recent conflicts worldwide. Detection and accurate location with 100% reliability is required to return land to safe civilian use. Keenan provides details of a prototype magnetic gradiometer developed for this purpose. Reducing power needs for high-end IT. Supercomputers are so large that they are close to requiring their own small power plant to support the energy needed to run the computer. For example, in 2011 Facebook data centers and operations used 532 million kW hours of energy. Mukhanov explores the potential of reducing the power dissipation for future supercomputers from more than 500 MW for Exascale systems to 0.2 MW by using superconducting-ferromagnetic Josephson junctions for magnetic memory and programmable logic. Clearly superconductivity is an ultimate energy-saving technology, and its practical implementation will contribute to the reduction of CO2 emissions, improved water purification, reduction of waste and timely preparedness for natural disasters or significant events. This Roadmap shows how the application of superconducting technologies will have a significant impact when they are adopted.

2013

10.1088/0953-2048/26/11/113001

Khiyat, Ziad

Groundwater in the Arab region: making the invisible visible

DESALINATION AND WATER TREATMENT

The Arab region is one of the most water scarce regions in the world with 19 states below the water scarcity threshold including 13 states below the absolute water scarcity. Groundwater is heavily relied upon and it is the primary source of freshwater in more than 11 Arab States, yet the invisible and complex character of groundwater being underground and out of sight has not given it the due attention it deserves. Hence, this report explores the importance of groundwater and the challenges it is facing, with the aim of bolstering its status to a strategic resource for the Arab region. Amid the water scarcity situation, limited renewable groundwater resources continue to be exploited at an unsustainable rate, exceeding the natural recharge rates. Excessive use of groundwater, especially by the agricultural sector combined with low efficiency, has led to the decline in groundwater storage in more than two thirds of the Arab region, where the area of decline has doubled in 2018-2019 compared to 2002. In some countries over 88% of all irrigation water comes from groundwater compared to a global average of just over 37%. Moreover, it is projected that by 2050, available groundwater per capita will have decreased by more than half since the beginning of the century and 17 Arab States, accounting for 79% of the total population, will be below the absolute water scarcity threshold. In addition to their excessive use, groundwater resources are also threatened by anthropo-genic pollution sources, from agricultural and industrial practices and from sea water intrusion in coastal cities. The deterioration in the quality of groundwater resources, both due to overexploita-tion and pollution is aggravating the problem of water scarcity. For example, in Beirut, seawater intrusion has shifted inland between 500 and 1,200 m from 1970 reference point. In Gaza, only 25% of wastewater is treated due the lack of proper wastewater collection and treatment infrastructure, which is further complicated by the occupation that has restricted access to natural resources. This is alarming knowing that groundwater is central to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and targets adopted in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in the region. It is directly linked to SDG6 and central to achieving many other SDGs such as SDG2 for ending hunger. It is also an important component of climate change adaptation, having a high buffer capacity against drought. Accordingly, the projected impacts of climate change on water resources in the region, will further increase dependency on groundwater at a time when groundwater recharge is also projected to decrease, necessitating conjunctive management of surface water and groundwater. The impacts of climate change on groundwater at the aquifer level is showcased by ESCWA on the Beni-Amir aquifer, Morocco and the Eocene aquifer, Palestine. Results from the study on Beni-Amir aquifer indicate that the water table is expected to decrease 10 to 25 m (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) by end of century, resulting in partial depletion of resources in the top three layers of the aquifer system, particularly in the northern Beni-Amir area. In the case of Palestine, the results on the Eocene aquifer showed that in the 2041-2060 horizon, the average precipitation is expected to decrease in all scenarios between 3% and 12%, whereas the recharge in 5 out of 6 precipitation scenarios showed a reduction by 12%-16%. Consequently, with no decrease in the aquifer pumping, the water levels in all scenarios will drop. The declining availability of groundwater resources due to increased consumption, develop-ment demands, inefficient use and climate change should prompt Arab States to explore innova-tive and integrated governance frameworks to improve groundwater resources management and ensure equitable access for current and future generations to this strategic resource. Groundwater governance has been historically weak in the Arab region, characterized by fragmented legislations and policies, limited funding, lack of coordination and lack of data and knowledge. More recent evaluation of the management of groundwater resources through the SDG indicator 6.5.1 report-ing mechanisms on the degree of implementation of IWRM has unfortunately reinforced some of the main challenges listed above in the Arab region mainly in terms of lack of implementation of management tools and proper financing. In response to the lack or fragmentation of groundwater management policies, ESCWA developed regional groundwater abstraction management guidelines offering a unified approach to deal with uncontrolled groundwater exploitation and use. Groundwater governance is further complicated by transboundary aquifers. In fact, all coun-tries, except for Comoros, share at least one aquifer with their neighboring countries. These trans-boundary aquifers cover almost 58% of the Arab region's total area. Some of these aquifers are directly connected to surface-water hydrological systems and should also be conjunctively man-aged. Other transboundary aquifers contain fossil groundwater reserves requiring specialized legal, policy and management frameworks that consider their non-renewable character. The status of regional transboundary water cooperation is captured in a recent regional report prepared by ESCWA on the progress on SDG indicator 6.5.2 in the Arab region for the year 2021. The report revealed the challenges faced by the Arab states that hinder the establishment of well-developed cooper-ation frameworks which are mainly linked to lack of knowledge and data exchange and financial constraints. However, there are encouraging signs where cooperation on transboundary aquifers has progressed, including a Joint Authority for the Nubian sandstone Aquifer, a cooperation framework for the Senegalo-Mauritanian Aquifer, a signed agreement for the Saq-Ram Aquifer, and a consulta-tion mechanism on the North Western Sahar Aquifer System. These cooperation agreements should be maintained and further developed by holding regular meetings, coordinating objectives and management plans, and regularly exchanging data and information. Regional knowledge exchange around these agreements should be enforced. Advances in technologies provide an opportunity to fill the data and information gap that hin-ders the management of groundwater. Integrated remote sensing data offer a solution to assess the groundwater status. In addition, Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) is one of the most important solutions to consider for securing water supply and for improving groundwater quality where it is deteriorating. MAR is already used in more than 44 sites across the Arab region. Technologies can assist in selection of where MAR can be a potential solution for the region and for improving the water security. Furthermore, in response to the need for availing more data and information on groundwater and improving access to such data as established through the reporting on SDG indicators 6.5.1 and 6.5.2, ESCWA will be initiating an Arab Groundwater Digital Knowledge Platform. This platform aims to increase access to regional knowledge and information on groundwater resources through a dedicated digital interactive platform. Finally, the relation of groundwater to water scarcity, human activity, transboundary water cooperation, climate change, and water governance is highlighted in the following key findings.

2022

10.5004/dwt.2022.28231

Zambrano, Karla

Climate crisis, women and children: between vulnerability and the urgent protection of their rights. Glimpses from the European continent

RELACIONES INTERNACIONALES-MADRID

Since the end of the 18th century, the burning and use of hydrocarbons has been the main source of energy used by mankind to achieve more developed societies, ignoring -at first - the high cost of natural resources involved. The use of this type of non-renewable energy has caused serious imbalances in the atmosphere and, in turn, a great impact on all the Earth's ecosystems, since any type of alteration in the atmosphere causes, as a consequence, further transformations in the rest of The conclusions reached by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are the results of more than 30 years of research dedicated to the study of the climate system and its alterations. It is not, therefore, a diffuse and banal reflection to be downplayed, quite the contrary, as it recreates the present and future scenario to which legal science must respond. Science, as usual, often leads the way in international rule-making and standard-setting processes, and has been decisive on climate change: there is an urgent need for a drastic reduction in the levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that human activities release into the atmosphere. Indeed, even if the Paris Agreement targets are met, resilience or adaptation and climate stability will be some of the greatest challenges facing humanity. There is now a clear scientific consensus on the unequivocal attribution of climate change to human activities. However, the impacts of climate variability are biased and the crosscutting issues that surround them, such as inequity and the vulnerability of multiple groups, such as women and children, are often displaced in the face of the severe damage already being done to the Earth's oceans, atmosphere, ice and biosphere, rapidly and pervasively. The greenhouse effect is an inherently discriminatory phenomenon because it affects systemically, unequally and disproportionately not only people belonging to a certain group, but also constitutes an emerging, progressive and increasingly frequent and intense damage to societies and nations that have not reached their maximum levels of development, or that lack the measures or the technology to adapt to climate variability. The purpose of this article is twofold. On the one hand, it aims to identify the direct consequences of anthropogenic global warming on women and children, interweaving the scientific basis with legal science, which will allow us to contextualize the current state of the situation in an objective manner; on the other hand, it aims to define the position of the international community on both issues, from a critical point of view, a human rights-based approach, and with a special reference to the European jurisdictional progress, which could contribute to enhance the international climate cooperation. This also includes legal proposals based on the principles of equal treatment and opportunities between women and men, and intergenerational equity, the empowerment of citizens to receive quality environmental education, the participation and integration of both women and new generations in political decisions on issues that affect them, and their inclusion in the discussion and analysis of the impact of the climate emergency based on scientific knowledge. This research is based on the axis of different theoretical frameworks, and seeks both to establish connections between different areas of knowledge and to provide an international legal response to the problem of global warming for women and children through the analysis of international law and its implementation. In addition, this study is based on the principle of scientific evidence that underpins the work of the IPCC and, more specifically, will build on the efforts of Working Group II (WGII) of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) on impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation. In the international legal sphere, this paper aims to link two areas of international law as major references: international human rights law and the legal framework regulating climate change in the international forum. With regard to the structure of this article, we will find an introduction to the state of the question, followed by the theoretical-methodological aspects that are intertwined in this research: the interweaving of postcolonial feminist theory, scientific knowledge and legal argumentation. The second section of this study aims to contextualize the impacts of climate change on ecosystems and the most vulnerable groups, with references to the contributions of Working Groups I and II of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report and other scientific studies that support the position of the vulnerability of women and children to the adverse effects of climate change. Within the second section, the IPCC has concluded that countries are already experiencing increasing impacts such as biodiversity loss, extreme weather events, land degradation, desertification and deforestation, sand and dust storms, persistent drought, sea level rise, coastal erosion, ocean acidification and mountain glacier retreat, causing severe disruption to societies, economies, employment, agricultural, industrial and commercial systems, global trade, supply chains and travel. It has also reported thata there has been a devastating impact on sustainable development, including poverty eradication and livelihoods, threatening food security and nutrition and water accessibility. Furthermore, a sub-section has been created that will detail some of the impacts of climate change specifically on women and children. In this sense, it is evident that women's reproductive rights are affected, there is an increase in vector-borne diseases with discriminatory tendencies based on gender, the manifestation of socio-economic inequalities linked to climate change, marginalisation, and the lack of capacity of children to adapt to climate change. The third section is devoted to providing a legal overview of the doctrine's position on the matter and the cases currently being heard in some courts where the plaintiffs are women and minors. This section highlights the impossibility of ignoring both the feminist approach and the intergenerational equity approach. It is also pointed out that in the elaboration of climate policies, it is not enough to draw up a list of insufficient and empty climate policies to comply with international commitments, since when it comes to demanding the jurisdictional protection of human rights in the context of the climate crisis, there are a series of complications rooted in the evidentiary capacity that governs any judicial procedure. The conclusions section contains both a synthesis of the different sections of this article, as well as a series of legally and socially viable proposals that contribute to the knowledge of climate change, its different impacts, policies for prevention and adaptation to the risks of extreme meteorological phenomena and, if necessary, keys that reinforce the path towards climate litigation.

2023

10.15366/relacionesinternacionales2023.53.002

Miola, Iage; Junqueira, Gabriela de Oliveira; Prol, Flavio; Vecchione-Goncalves, Marcela; Ferrando, Tomaso; Herrera, Hector

Green bonds in the world-ecology: capital, nature and power in the financialized expansion of the forestry industry in Brazil

RELACIONES INTERNACIONALES-MADRID

The 2008 financial crisis opened the doors of green capitalism as a financially sound approach to saving the planet from the worst effects of the climate emergency. The emphasis on the role of finance in promoting green growth has permeated mainstream political,academic and business approaches to climate change adaptation and mitigation, assuming multiple forms - from the carbon markets of the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement, to the Environmental, Social and Governance taxonomy for green investments, to the proliferation of sustainable labels in several economic sectors. The present article offers a critical appraisal of one of the most prominent arguments that upholds the idea that it is possible and desirable to achieve sustainability and economic growth through finance: green bonds. Green bonds are debt instruments whose proceeds are earmarked to fund projects with supposedly environmental benefits. After some years in the background, they now occupy a central position in the green recovery narrative and political framework all over the world. Most of the academic literature tends to naturalize green bonds as an eminently technical solution to reconcile economic growth and environmental sustainability. Filling an epistemological gap, the present article leverages a world-ecology approach to embed the financial phenomenon of green bonds within the broader picture of the capitalist political economy and the expansion of its ecological frontier. In light of the ongoing experiences that the authors have been following in the Brazilian legal,financial and political context, the article unpacks and makes sense of green bonds as a tool in the hands of climate finance that reproduces global patterns of North-South uneven development and the shifting of ecological costs. To test the potential of the interpretative framework offered by a world-ecology approach, we mobilize it in the concrete case of green bonds issuances directed to fund the forestry sector in Brazil. Aware that the current phenomenon only represents a blip in comparison to the largeer temporal (the longue duree) and spatial (the world system) scales usually deployed by world-ecology, we nonetheless discuss how the ideological, technical and power dynamics behind the issuance of green bonds unleash capital accumulation, produce a financialized and subordinated construction of nature, and entail an institutional arrangement. The article is organized around 3 main sections. After the introduction, section 1 describes green bonds as one of the most fashionable financial topics of the moment, and one that promotes a shift in discourses towards the need of actively building a green economy. Although from a legal standpoint green bonds embody no significant difference from regular bonds, our focus is to describe the promises around them, the current (private) governance structure, and the trends in the issuance of these debt instruments both in the Global North and South, with a specific focus on the case of Brazil. In section 2, we look at the operations of green bonds emissions on the ground, i.e. taking as an example the context of green debt underpinning the Brazilian forestry sector. The analysis reveals how the emissions, made predominantly by large multinational companies actively present on the global market, feed off great efforts deployed by both the public and the private sector in constructing an image of the sector as a key player in the emergent bioeconomy and in the strengthening of Brazil's goals in the Paris Agreement. However,we describe how green bond revenues that are officially committed to the implementation of sustainable management of forests are associated with the expansion of the ecological frontier in the Brazilian territory, stretching the boundaries of the area dedicated to tree plantations and amplifying social and environmental tensions. The backstage of the emissions shows how capital accumulation through green bonds is associated with the coproduction of nature for the purpose of accumulation, generating concerns that are often diluted or transformed into procedural requirements. Debt generated by the subscription of green bonds, we argue, is not only financial, but also social and ecological. In section 3, we put forward that for private accumulation to be successful, green bonds in the forestry sector demand an institutional arrangement that combines state support and private governance of debt in its financial, social and ecological dimensions. Rather than being the result of an idealized and spontaneous market, a set of institutional transformations have to be considered in order to comprehend the feasibility of green bonds in the Brazilian forestry sector. We thus describe the historic connection between forestry and the state, the endless public incentives to put nature to work, the functional adaptations of the Brazilian environmental legislation and the regulation concerning the demarcation, access and use of land. In this context, we argue that green bonds add yet a new institutional layer to the process of creating and validating specific forms of nature, through a governance structure that dilutes the tensions between the promise of environmental benefits and its concrete negative social and environmental impacts. We conclude the article by reassembling these findings as part of the capitalist world ecology dialectical unity of capital accumulation, co-production of nature and power. We suggest that the world-ecology approach allows us to grasp green bonds as a complex form that has so far been ignored in the relevant literature. As any other phenomenon of financialization, a green bond should not be understood in isolation from its material basis, since it is from that basis - and its social and environmental conditions and contradictions - that it appropriates value. As the example of the Brazilian forestry sector illuminates, the greenness of the financial debt inscribed in green bonds may come into existence at the expense of the social and environmental debt that underlie the forestry sector productive model. Hence, although the explicit inclusion of environmental concerns into financial considerations and project implementation has been praised as a step towards the recognition that finance has a material impact on the planet and that these externalities shall be accounted for, the article warns of the typical green arithmetic move put forward by green bonds. Green bonds inevitably co-produce nature and social relations, but in a very unequal way that emphasizes capital accumulation and that does not necessarily protect the environment (even when standards are introduced). Much to the contrary, green bonds may come into being at the expense of other ways of living ecologically, and by restoring injustices of the past and creating a regenerative future - in other words, by creating debt.

2021

10.15366/relacionesinternacionales2021.46.009

Del Soldato, Elisabetta; Massari, Sonia

Creativity and digital strategies to support food cultural heritage in Mediterranean rural areas

EUROMED JOURNAL OF BUSINESS

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to address the challenges faced by rural areas and promote their sustainable development. It emphasizes the importance of re-establishing connections and cultivating a sense of belonging within rural communities, while safeguarding their cultural heritage. The study explores the potential of digital and creative tools in enhancing learning, supporting food production and tourism, facilitating research and providing engaging experiences. It also examines the economic condition of rural areas and the potential for their contribution to the national economy. Additionally, the study highlights the significance of sustainable community development, the role of rural areas in resilience and climate change adaptation and the complexities surrounding rural migration. The aim is to provide insights and recommendations for policymakers and stakeholders involved in rural development initiatives, focusing on the Mediterranean region.Design/methodology/approachThis study develops an understanding of the role of digital and creative strategies in rural communities, highlighting their significance in preserving food heritage, culture and community capital while driving economic development. It specifically focuses on the Unesco Intangible Mediterranean Diet (UIMD) as a potential catalyst for regeneration through the integration of creative and digital tools and three cases are presented. The first is the impact of the Future Food Institute (FFI) ecosystem in the Living Lab in Pollica (Salerno, Italy); the second focuses on the digital tools provided by the CKF to support rural areas; and the third is a new identity and promotion of territorial development, co-designed in the Val di Vara (VdV) a rural region of the Ligurian inland in Italy, through digital strategies, heritage preservation and slow tourism development. The three cases highlight different ways of enhancing environmental and cultural heritage and demonstrate how collaborative creativity and digital tools contribute to the co-construction of knowledge and addressing critical issues to promote sustainable growth in rural areas.FindingsThe findings of this study indicate that re-establishing connections and fostering a sense of belonging within rural communities is crucial for their sustainable development. The use of digital and creative tools presents significant opportunities in enhancing various aspects such as learning, food production, tourism and research in rural areas. The study also reveals the potential economic contributions of rural areas to the national economy. It emphasizes the importance of sustainable community development and highlights the role of rural areas in resilience and climate change adaptation. Additionally, the study addresses the complexities surrounding rural migration and emphasizes the need for comprehensive policies to ensure the well-being and rights of migrant workers. The insights and recommendations provided in this study aim to guide policymakers and stakeholders involved in rural development initiatives, particularly in the Mediterranean region.Research limitations/implicationsNonetheless, it is imperative to acknowledge certain limitations within the scope of this study, primarily associated with the specific sample selection, potentially influencing the broader applicability of the findings. There is potential to explore a wider geographic area in future research. Additionally, the research underscores the importance of conducting further inquiries into certain aspects that have received limited attention. Living labs are a relatively recent phenomenon, warranting further in-depth scientific research. Additionally, the existing literature on this subject is often limited in scope.Practical implicationsThe study and project aim to illustrate the feasibility of initiating a transformative process, centered on a visionary approach with a core focus on creative knowledge and the Mediterranean diet as a way of life, to revitalize marginalized communities. Furthermore, it seeks to emphasize that these neglected regions possess untapped potential for innovative ideas and opportunities. Rural communities, in their role as farmers of primary goods, are the ones who nurture the environment, and the landscape, and are the true protagonists of every era. Rurality is the place that preserves the most resources and potential in terms of biodiversity and rural knowledge. Every territory, like every human being, has its own characteristics and vocations to pursue. The existing Genius Loci is already an existing value that requires policies and governance to rediscover roots, identity and worth. The stratification of existing collective intelligence must become central and must be individually assessed and enhanced, also taking advantage of new digital technologies.Social implicationsThe social implications of this study are significant. By emphasizing the importance of re-establishing connections and cultivating a sense of belonging within rural communities, the study recognizes the social value of strong community ties. This can lead to increased social cohesion, a sense of identity and improved overall well-being within rural areas. The study also highlights the potential of digital and creative tools in enhancing learning, which can contribute to the empowerment and educational opportunities of individuals in rural communities. Furthermore, by promoting sustainable community development and addressing the complexities surrounding rural migration, the study acknowledges the social impact of inclusive policies that protect the rights and well-being of both local populations and migrant workers. Overall, the study's recommendations have the potential to foster social resilience, equity and a more vibrant social fabric within rural areas.Originality/valueThis study can offer valuable insights and recommendations for policymakers and stakeholders involved in rural development initiatives, particularly those focused on preserving food and cultural heritage in rural areas. By analyzing real-life examples, it bridges the gap between theory and practice, illustrating how these ideas have been effectively applied in specific contexts. This paper emphasizes the potential of the Mediterranean Diet as a sustainable and nutritious model with sociocultural, health, economic and environmental benefits, highlighting the importance of bottom-up approaches that empower local communities as custodians of knowledge and culture. It also provides practical strategies, such as investments in educational programs, the establishment of international campuses and the use of multichannel platforms for immersive experiences, which can be adapted for broader rural development initiatives, promoting sustainability and community engagement.

2024

10.1108/EMJB-05-2023-0152

Easterling, W; Apps, M

Assessing the consequences of climate change for food and forest resources: A view from the IPCC

CLIMATIC CHANGE

Important findings on the consequences of climate change for agriculture and forestry from the recently completed Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are reviewed, with emphasis on new knowledge that emerged since the Second Assessment Report (SAR). The State-Pressure-Response-Adaptation model is used to organize the review. The major findings are: Constant or declining food prices are expected for at least the next 25 yr, although food security problems will persist in many developing countries as those countries deal with population increases, political crisis, poor resource endowments, and steady environmental degradation. Most economic model projections suggest that low relative food prices will extend beyond the next 25 yr, although our confidence in these projections erodes farther out into the 21st century. Although deforestation rates may have decreased since the early 1990s, degradation with a loss of forest productivity and biomass has occurred at large spatial scales as a result of fragmentation, non-sustainable practices and infrastructure development. According to United Nations estimates, approximately 23% of all forest and agricultural lands were classified as degraded over the period since World War II. At a worldwide scale, global change pressures (climate change, land-use practices and changes in atmospheric chemistry) are increasingly affecting the supply of goods and services from forests. The most realistic experiments to date - free air experiments in an irrigated environment - indicate that C-3 agricultural crops in particular respond favorably to gradually increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations (e.g., wheat yield increases by an average of 28%), although extrapolation of experimental results to real world production where several factors (e.g., nutrients, temperature, precipitation, and others) are likely to be limiting at one time or another remains problematic. Moreover, little is known of crop response to elevated CO2 in the tropics, as most of the research has been conducted in the mid-latitudes. Research suggests that for some crops, for example rice, CO2 benefits may decline quickly as temperatures warm beyond optimum photosynthetic levels. However, crop plant growth may benefit relatively more from CO2 enrichment in drought conditions than in wet conditions. The unambiguous separation of the relative influences of elevated ambient CO2 levels, climate change responses, and direct human influences (such as present and historical land-use change) on trees at the global and regional scales is still problematic. In some regions such as the temperate and boreal forests, climate change impacts, direct human interventions (including nitrogen-bearing pollution), and the legacy of past human activities (land-use change) appear to be more significant than CO2 fertilization effects. This subject is, however an area of continuing scientific debate, although there does appear to be consensus that any CO2 fertilization effect will saturate (disappear) in the coming century. Modeling studies suggest that any warming above current temperatures will diminish crop yields in the tropics while up to 2-3 degrees C of warming in the mid-latitudes may be tolerated by crops, especially if accompanied by increasing precipitation. The preponderance of developing countries lies in or near the tropics; this finding does not bode well for food production in those countries. Where direct human pressures do not mask them, there is increasing evidence of the impacts of climate change on forests associated with changes in natural disturbance regimes, growing season length, and local climatic extremes. Recent advances in modeling of vegetation response suggest that transient effects associated with dynamically responding ecosystems to climate change will increasingly dominate over the next century and that during these changes the global forest resource is likely to be adversely affected. The ability of livestock producers to adapt their herds to the physiological stress of climate change appears encouraging due to a variety of techniques for dealing with climate stress, but this issue is not well constrained, in part because of the general lack of experimentation and simulations of livestock adaptation to climate change. Crop and livestock farmers who have sufficient access to capital and technologies should be able to adapt their farming systems to climate change. Substantial changes in their mix of crops and livestock production may be necessary, however, as considerable costs could be involved in this process because investments in learning and gaining experience with different crops or irrigation. Impacts of climate change on agriculture after adaptation are estimated to result in small percentage changes in overall global income. Nations with large resource endowments (i.e., developed countries) will fare better in adapting to climate change than those with poor resource endowments (i.e., developing countries and countries in transition, especially in the tropics and subtropics) which will fare worse. This, in turn, could worsen income disparities between developed and developing countries. Although local forest ecosystems will be highly affected, with potentially significant local economic impacts, it is believed that, at regional and global scales, the global supply of timber and non-wood goods and services will adapt through changes in the global market place. However, there will be regional shifts in market share associated with changes in forest productivity with climate change: in contrast to the findings of the SAR, recent studies suggest that the changes will favor producers in developing countries, possibly at the expense of temperate and boreal suppliers. Global agricultural vulnerability is assessed by the anticipated effects of climate change on food prices. Based on the accumulated evidence of modeling studies, a global temperature rise of greater than 2.5 degrees C is likely to reverse the trend of falling real food prices. This would greatly stress food security in many developing countries.

2005

10.1007/s10584-005-5941-0

Avordeh, Timothy King; Gyamfi, Samuel; Opoku, Alex Akwasi

Quantitative estimation of the impact of climate change on residential electricity demand for the city of Greater Accra, Ghana

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENERGY SECTOR MANAGEMENT

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of temperature on residential electricity demand in the city of Greater Accra, Ghana. It is believed that the increasing trend of temperatures may significantly affect people's lives and demand for electricity from the national grid. Given the recurrent electricity crisis in Ghana, this study will investigate both the current and future residential energy demands in the light of temperature fluctuations. This will inform future power generation using renewable energy resources mix to find a sustainable solution to the recurrent energy demand challenges in Ghana. This study will help the Government of Ghana to better understand the temperature dependence of residential energy demand, which in turn will help in developing behavioral modification programs aimed at reducing energy consumption. Monthly data for the temperature and residential electricity consumption for Greater Accra Region from January 2007 to December 2018 obtained from the Ghana Meteorological Service (GMS) and Ghana Grid Company (Gridco), respectively, are used for the analysis. Design/methodology/approach This study used monthly time series data from 2007 to 2018. Data on monthly electricity demand and temperature are obtained from the Ghana Grid Company and GMS. The theoretical framework for residential electricity consumption, the log-linear demand equation and time series regression approaches was used for this study. To demonstrate certain desirable properties and to produce good estimators in this study, an analysis technique of ordinary least squares measurement was also applied. Findings This study showed an impact on residential electricity requirements in the selected regions of Greater Accra owing to temperature change. The analysis suggests a substantial positive response to an increase in temperature demand for residential electricity and thus indicates a growth of the region's demand for electricity in the future because of temperature changes. As this analysis projects, the growth in the electricity demand seems too small for concern, perhaps because of the incoherence of the mechanisms used to regulate the temperature by the residents. However, two points should be considered when drawing any conclusions even in the case of Greater Accra alone. First, the growth in the demand for electricity shown in the present study is the growth of demand due only to increasing temperatures that do not consider changes in all the other factors driving the growth of demand. The electricity demand will in the future increase beyond what is induced by temperature, due to increasing demand, population and mechanization and other socioeconomic factors. Second, power consumption understated genuine electricity demand, owing to the massive shedding of loads (Dumsor) which occurred in Ghana from 2012 to 2015 in the analysis period that also applies in the Greater Accra region. Given both of these factors, the growth in demand for electricity is set to increase in response to climate change, which draws on the authorities to prepare more critically on capacity building which loads balancing. The results also revealed that monthly total residential electricity consumption, particularly the monthly peak electricity consumption in the city of Accra is highly sensitive to temperature. Therefore, the rise in temperature under different climate change scenarios would have a high impact on residential electricity consumption. This study reveals that the monthly total residential electricity demand in Greater Accra will increase by up to 3.1%. Research limitations/implications The research data was largely restricted to only one region in Ghana because of the inconsistencies in the data from the other regions. The only climate variable use was temperature because it was proven in the literature that it was the most dominant variable that affects electricity demand, so it was not out of place to use only this variable. The research, however, can be extended to capture the entire regions of the country if sponsorship and accurate data can be obtained. Practical implications The government as the policy and law-making authority has to play the most influential role to ensure adaptation at all levels toward the impact of climate change for residential consumers. It is the main responsibility of the government to arrange enough supports to help residential consumers adapt to climate change and try to make consumers self-sufficient by modification of certain behaviors rather than supply dependent. Government bodies need to carefully define their climate adaptation supports and incentive programs to influence residential-level consumption practices and demand management. Here, energy policies and investments need to be more strategic. The most critical problem is to identify the appropriate adaptation policies that favor the most vulnerable sectors such as the residential sector. Social implications To evaluate both mitigation and adaptation policies, it is important to estimate the effect of climate change on energy usage around the world. Existing empirical figures, however, are concentrated in Western nations, especially the USA. To predict how electricity usage will shift in the city of Greater Accra, Ghana, the authors used regular household electricity consumption data. Originality/value The motivation for this paper and in particular the empirical analysis for Ghana is originality for the literature. This paper demonstrates an adequate understanding of the relevant literature in modern times.

2021

10.1108/IJESM-08-2020-0008

Bacci, M.; Idrissa, O. A.; Zini, C.; Burrone, S.; Sitta, A. A.; Tarchiani, V.

Effectiveness of agrometeorological services for smallholder farmers: The case study in the regions of Dosso and Tillab?eri in Niger

CLIMATE SERVICES

The increasing frequency of extreme events in West Africa, such as droughts and floods, has made populations that base their subsistence mostly on rainfed agriculture even more vulnerable to climate threats. Climate Ser-vices (CS) are largely acknowledged as effective tools for tackling climate risks in agriculture, particularly in semi-arid developing countries but evidences of their effectiveness are still jeopardized. In Niger a climate service (CS) has been set up in the regions of Dosso and Tillabe acute accent ri by the National Meteorological Service (NMS) to provide salient information for smallholder farmers. The CS was built on a robust collaboration among NMS, local extension services and authorities and farmers in 8 municipalities. The case study shows that a large share of farmers receives throughout the cropping season climatic information and advice via roving seminars and various media, including instant messaging services and radio broadcasts. Nevertheless, the results indicate that access to CS alone doesn't imply relevant positive impacts on crop yields while the training of farmers in the use of the information results to be a significant factor. Indeed, in 2020, yields of trained farmers are significantly higher by around 17% compared to those of non-trained ones. Training and iterative interaction between farmers and NMS could also have indirect effects on information uptake, contributing to building reciprocal trust and therefore stronger action by trained farmers. The study confirms the importance of the social learning process in CS co-development. Since the study is limited by the small sample and the dataset covering only one cropping season, further research is needed to deepen cost-benefit analysis and disentangle the relative contribution of the CS components to yield increase. Indeed, evidences of the positive impact of CS could represent a leverage for local governments and international funders to support CS co-development and related capacity building activities. Practical implication: Climate variability and a strong increase in extreme hydro meteorological events are affecting agriculture production and exacerbating food insecurity in West Africa. In Niger, the vulnerability of agricultural production systems is coupled to ecosystem fragility and soil degradation. In this area, the rural population is the most vulnerable to climate threats because they have a reduced capability to implement effective risk reduction and climate change adaptation strategies and national government has limited resources to invest in climate policies. The CS implemented for the regions of Dosso and Tillabe acute accent ri in Niger demonstrates that it is possible to set up an effective network for disseminating agrometeorological information for smallholder farmers at the municipal level with the aim of reducing the impact of climate threats on agriculture production. The information produced by the National Meteorological Service (NMS) is spread through extension services and rural radios to reach farmers. At the same time the agrometeorological field data are collected by local farmers and sent to the national service, ensuring the continuous monitoring of the cropping season. Subse-quently, the agrometeorological information is coupled with setting up roving seminars in each municipality to spread tailored advice for farmers concerning seasonal climate forecasts and to build capacities in the use of agrometeorological advices during the season. During these seminars, rain gauges are also distributed to farmers and their use explained. In this way, farmers become able to autonomously take some tactical decisions, such as better timing the sowing of crops or performing farming activities, basing these choices on direct observations. The present case study demonstrates that the mere receipt of the climate information is not clearly related to an increase in yields; contrariwise, farmers who received training on how to properly use the information, have significantly higher yields. Repeated capacity building and information distribution over the years represent an element of trust building for end users who are more prone to use these CS in their agricultural choices, integrating their traditional knowledge. The next challenge is to guarantee the sustainability of these networks over time, because, even if technology advances could reduce the costs of the production and distribution of climate services, the training activities and maintaining the rural observation network are challenging. A possible way to make it sustainable is to reinforce institutional collaboration. Moreover, the use of a participatory approach in co-designing the CS could be a key element in pursuing the active involvement of the local population and administrations and could increase their motivation in the data exchange process. Basing on obtained results, the authors recommend to pursue the development of tailored CS for smallholder farmers in similar rural contexts, since these services constitute a real contribution to climate change adaptation at the local level in rural areas and future experiences could ensure the fine tuning of the climate information products, reducing delivery costs and increasing benefits for stakeholders. Finally, it is also recommended to further assess the cost/benefit ratio of CS in order to leverage funds and ensure scaling up and sustainability.

2023

10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100360

Degefu, Mekonnen Amberber; Kifle, Fantu

Impacts of climate variability on the vegetable production of urban farmers in the Addis Ababa metropolitan area: Nexus of climate-smart agricultural technologies

CLIMATE SERVICES

This study was aimed at examining the impacts of climate variability on vegetable production and nexus climatesmart agriculture technologies. The study was conducted on vegetable farmers along the little Akaki River in Addis Ababa. Field data was collected from 156 randomly selected vegetable farmers via semi-structured survey questions. Climate data from 1996 to 2020 was analysed using qualitative and quantitative descriptive statistics methods. The results of monthly and annual precipitation variability indicated a coefficient of variation (CV) ranging from 23% to 73% and 49% to 98%, respectively. Seasonally, CV ranges between 34% and 99%, 50%- 97%, and 20%-84% in Belg, Bega, and Kiremt, respectively. The results of respondents' perceptions indicated an increasing trend in temperature and precipitation variability. Vegetable urban farmers perceived an increase in the frequency of floods and rain falls (44.9%), drought frequency (13.5%), temperature (89.7%), and a decrease in the trend of vegetable productivity (86.5%) as the major impacts of climate variability. However, changing vegetable varieties (31.4%), early planting (26.9%), mixed farming (26.6%), late planting (5.1%), using agrochemicals (4.5%), and agroforestry (1.9%) are the major on-farm climates where smart agriculture technologies were identified for adaptation. Shift occupation (37.8%), nonadaptation (36.5%), and non-farm activations (24.4%) were employed by the farmers as off-farm adaptation options. In addition, vulnerability analysis indicated that the absence of direct access to the market, inadequate access to weather information, land fragmentation, and tenure complications are the major determinants of being vulnerable. Finally, high precipitation and temperature variability affect vegetable productivity. Practical Implications: Climate extreme phenomena are substantial pressures on urban agricultural production systems in risk-prone cities, where climate service challenges are rising globally (Sanfo et al., 2022; Kifle et al., 2022; Ebissa and Desta, 2022); besides, the requirement to produce more urban vegetables to feed residents, an ever-increasing and vulnerable group, is undeniable (Martinez et al., 2022). Additionally, climate variability and change threaten urban and pre-urban farmers' livelihoods and agricultural farming, particularly in semi-arid areas in Africa (Magesa et al., 2023). Furthermore, 64 % of the world's poorest people lived in sub-Saharan Africa in 2020, which strongly requires the implementation of Sustainable Development Goals 1 (no poverty), 2 (zero hunger) and 11 (make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable) in the region (Magesa et al., 2023; Chitakira and Ngcobo, 2021; Degefu et al., 2021c). Thus, cities are exposure to compatible climate information services is vital for anticipating climate variability risks in vegetable production, optimizing the training of practitioners (urban farmers), and adapting to climate change through climate smart agriculture technologies (Degefu et al., 2021a; Chitakira and Ngcobo, 2021; Kifle et al., 2022). Moreover, it is compulsory to ascertain and analyze impact insights and their origins, vulnerabilities, and adaptive potential among urban farmers before beginning with the exercise of any given climate service to understand the demands of urban vegetable farmers and the possible exploitation of nexuses (Dendir and Simane, 2021). Conversely, in Ethiopia, the agriculture sector is identified as one of the sectors most vulnerable to climate change and vulnerability (Kifle et al., 2022). On top of these, the productivity and the concern of urban agriculture (vegetable production) is highly ignored and reduced the potential, productivity and suitability of ecological land (Kifle et al., 2022; Degefu et al., 2021b; Degefu et al., 2021c). Besides, the combined effect of climate variability, population pressure, and urban ecosystem dynamics reduced urban vegetable production and leads the farming community into a viscous of poverty circle and worsens food security (Amberber et al., 2020; Degefu et al., 2021c). However, previous studies have revealed that the effectiveness of climate information services on urban ecosystems depends on (i) the ability of urban farmers to access, understand, and overcome institutional constraints (Kiplagat et al., 2022) (ii) the capacity of end-users to translate the information and knowledge into effective decision-making options (Dendir and Simane, 2021), and (iii) the capacity of end-users to translate the information and knowledge into effective decision-making options (Martinez et al., 2022). To that end, the disparity between the awareness of urban farmers and policymakers towards the benefits of CSA and their practices implies that indigenous knowledge-based research on CSA farming and land management technology should be conducted. Therefore, it is crucial to appreciate the practices and adoption of CSA at the city level to realise triple-win outcomes: increased productivity, enhanced resilience, and mitigating climate variability and change.

2024

10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100430

Zhai, Panmao; Yuan, Yufeng; Yu, Rong; Guo, Jianping

Climate change and sustainable development for cities

CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN-CHINESE

Under the current background of global warming, extreme weather and climate events, such as heavy precipitation and heat wave events, have increased in most land areas of the world. Meanwhile, in cities, the intensity and frequency of heat waves and heavy precipitation events have further increased as the urban climate has additionally been affected by rapid land surface change, enhanced anthropogenic heat release, and massive aerosol emissions. These enhanced aerosol emissions also deteriorate the air quality, often causing severe air quality problems in cities. The added urbanization effect on global and regional climate change has imposed increasingly serious impacts on the dense population, heavy traffic, vast infrastructure, and economic assets of urban areas. China has experienced much faster warming than the global average from the late of 20st century, especially since 1990. The average warming rate in the seven largest cities (Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Wuhan and Chongqing) is higher than the average for China as a whole during the most recent 60 years. The number of hot days with maximum surface air temperatures over 35 degrees C has increased markedly since 1990. In the past two decades, many cities, such as Beijing, Jinan, and Chongqing have experienced extremely heavy precipitation events, causing dozens of fatalities. During the past 50 years, severe air pollution conditions have frequently occurred in many cities over eastern China. In South China, the Huanghe-Huaihe River Basin and North China, increasing trends in the number of haze days are evident. Influenced by global warming, cities in low-lying coastal areas are highly susceptible to sea level rise and the related impacts of sea water encroachment, especially during tropical cyclone and storm surge periods. In cities in northern China and inland areas, climate change-related drought frequently significantly impacts water resources and ecosystem services. In recent years, the issue of urban climate change has received considerable attention in China. Many climate change adaptation strategies have been put into action in cities. Also, urban areas account for about 75% of energy-related CO2 emissions worldwide, and thus play a dominant role in the mitigation of global greenhouse gases. Meanwhile, increased urban climate change and its impacts greatly challenge the social, economic and ecological sustainable development of China's cities. In 2015, the United Nations adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, at the heart of which are 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Goal 11, on making cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable, directly targets dealing with the challenges brought by urbanization. Many other goals, such as Goal 13 on taking urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts, Goal 3 on ensuring healthy lives and promoting wellbeing, Goal 6 on ensuring access to water and sanitation, and Goal 15 on protecting, restoring and promoting the sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, are all related to tackling climate change issues from the perspectives of human security and health, more resilient economies, and ecosystems. Obviously, implementation of these United Nations SDGs brings immediate impetus and new opportunities for climate change responses in cities. In the future, the impacts of global climate change and urbanization are expected to further increase. Cities will face more serious and complicated climate change risks to human health, economic development, and ecosystem services as our expectation of more hazards, higher exposure and vulnerability unfolds. For China, climate change and sustainable development in cities is an extremely prominent issue. However, systematic studies on climate change in cities are very limited, especially in terms of the interactions and mechanisms between global/regional climate change and urbanization processes, high-resolution climate change projections under the consideration of future urban development pathways, impact and risk assessments of climate change in combination with high exposure and vulnerability, and a portfolio of response options and measures for climate change in cities. Effective climate change actions rely on understanding the complexity and uncertainties of future climate change and related risks in cities. Under the framework of sustainable development, following related national green development strategies and polices, taking advantages of science, technology, finance and governance in cities, to actively tackle urban climate change issues, such as enhanced adaptation and mitigation measures, properly selecting development pathways will greatly enhance climate resilience in cities. A series of national actions, such as implementing low carbon cities and sponge cities, and the Action Plan on Prevention and Control of Atmospheric Pollution, will have co-benefits for climate change responses and sustainable development in cities.

2019

10.1360/N972018-00911

Houghton, Adele

HEALTH IMPACT ASSESSMENTS A Tool for Designing Climate Change Resilience into Green Building and Planning Projects

JOURNAL OF GREEN BUILDING

Historical records have documented considerable changes to the global climate, with significant health, economic, and environmental consequences. Climate projections predict more intense hurricanes; increased sea level rise; and more frequent and more intense natural disasters such as heat waves, heavy rainfall, and drought in the future (1; 2). The coast along the Gulf of Mexico is particularly vulnerable to many of these environmental hazards and at particular risk when several strike simultaneously-such as a hurricane disrupting electricity transmission during a heat wave. Due to its significant contribution to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the building sector already plays an important role in climate change mitigation efforts (e. g., reducing emissions). For example, voluntary programs such as the LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) Rating System (3), the Architecture 2030 Challenge (4), the American College and University Presidents' Climate Commitment (5), and the Clinton Climate Initiative (6) focus almost exclusively on reducing energy consumption and increasing renewable energy generation. Mandatory regulations such as the International Energy Conservation Code (7), the International Green Building Code (8), and CalGreen (9) also emphasize GHG emission reduction targets. This leadership role is necessary. After all, the United States EPA estimates that the building sector accounts for 62.7% of total annual GHG emissions in the U. S., when the construction sector, facility operations, and transportation are factored in. In fact, the construction sector alone is the third largest industrial emitter of GHGs after the oil and gas and chemical industries, contributing 1.7% of total annual emissions (10; 11). As significant as these contributions appear, the built environment's true contribution to climate change is much larger than the GHG emissions attributed to building construction and operations. It is also a major determinant of which populations are vulnerable to climate change-related hazards, such as heat waves and flooding (12; 13). Architecture and land use planning can therefore be used as tools for building community resilience to the climate-related environmental changes underway (13). Climate change regulations and voluntary programs have begun to incorporate requirements targeting the built environment's ability to work in tandem with the natural environment to both reduce greenhouse gas emissions and protect its occupants from the health consequences of a changing climate. For example, 11 states have incorporated climate change adaptation goals into their climate action plans (14). In 2010, the not-for-profit organization ICLEI: Local Governments for Sustainability launched a climate change adaptation program (15) to complement their existing mitigation program, which supports municipalities who have signed the U. S. Conference of Mayors' Climate Protection Agreement (16). New tools have been introduced to measure community vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. One of these tools, Health Impact Assessments (or HIAs), has emerged over the past decade as a powerful methodology to provide evidence-based recommendations to decision makers and community planning officials about the likely health co-benefits and co-harms associated with proposed policies and land use development proposals (17). While HIAs are becoming a more common feature of community planning efforts, this paper introduces them as an approach to designing climate change resilience into specific building projects. HIAs have been used in Europe and other parts of the world for decades to provide a science-based, balanced assessment of the risks and benefits to health associated with a proposed policy or program (18). In the U. S., they have been used over the past decade to evaluate transit-oriented developments, urban infill projects, and California's cap-and-trade legislation, among other topics (17; 19). To date, HIAs have been used mainly to inform large-scale community planning, land use, industrial, and policy decisions. However, the recommendations generated through the HIA process often bring to light previously unforeseen vulnerabilities, whether due to existing infrastructure, building technology, or socio-economic conditions. Designers can make use of the HIA process and its resulting recommendations to prioritize design/retrofit interventions that will result in the largest co-benefits to building owners, the surrounding community, and the environment. An HIA focused on the health impacts of climate change will likely generate recommendations that could enhance the longevity of a building project's useful life; protect its property value by contributing to the resilience of the surrounding community; and result in design decisions that prioritize strategies that maximize both short-term efficiencies and long-term environmental, economic, and social value.

2011

10.3992/jgb.6.2.66

Swaris, Nirma; Halwatura, Rangika Umesh; Amaratunga, Dilanthi

Policy coherence for resilience in Sri Lanka coherence of climate change adaptation (CCA) disaster risk reduction (DRR) and sustainable development goals (SDGs)

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RESILIENCE IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT

PurposePolicy coherence is a complex and tough task for many developing nations because their capacity to examine and deliver evidence-based inputs to policymaking is limited, and policy dialogue platforms need to be effectively used. Resolving these difficulties is a critical requirement for policy consistency. As a result, the study focuses on the level of policy coherence for climate change adaptation (CCA), disaster risk reduction (DRR) and sustainable development goals (SDG) in Sri Lanka and suggests routes for policy coherence for Resilience. This study aims to investigate the coherent approach of CCA, DRR and SDG; to identify concerns in policy documents addressing the coherence of CCA, DRR and SDG in local context; and to propose policy coherence suggestions for resilience in Sri Lanka.Design/methodology/approachMethodology comprises a review and content analysis of 17 policy and legal documents in Sri Lanka and a qualitative study. The qualitative approach consists of semistructured interviews that obtained deep and broad expertise knowledge with ten government representatives and stakeholders. Both content analysis and interview data were analyzed by using NVivo.FindingsIt was discovered that there are several issues with the coherence of policies in Sri Lanka, including the fragmented approach, lack of integration, inadequate coordination, limited resources and lack of monitoring and evaluation. The policies are inspired by international frameworks, and local implementations are not focused, leading to inadequate implementation of policies. The lack of development cooperation for the use of innovative approaches, such as climate-resilient infrastructure and environmentally friendly solutions for CCA and DRR, further aggravates the situation. Another concern is the lack of land use management and responsibility for the development of physical infrastructure for DRR integration with CCA. It is found that there is a limited community involvement which is vital for the implementation of policies. Local implementations are encouraged to fill the gaps in existing policies/acts. The analytical framework of the study is based on a preliminary examination of policy documents, a review of the literature and discussions with practitioners. The framework reflects the current situation of policy integration which addresses strategic, conceptual, institutional, operational and financial coherence. The research suggests pathways for achieving policy coherence in CCA, DRR and SDG in Sri Lanka, such as enhancing the strategic coherence by improving goals to increase the coherence within CCA, DRR and SDG; improving the credibility of the unified approach for developing DRR and CCA risk assessments; intensifying institutional cooperation and stakeholder management; improving the common monitoring and evaluation; establishing implementation strategies; and increasing the community involvement.Research limitations/implicationsThe study on policy coherence in Sri Lanka recommends increasing community and professional involvement, conducting more research, developing a national strategy, increasing capacity building, strengthening international collaboration and fostering multisectoral collaboration. These recommendations can help improve policy coherence between CCA, DRR and SDGs, align policies with national goals and priorities and improve implementation effectiveness. By implementing these recommendations, Sri Lanka can address the challenges of climate change and natural disasters and achieve SDGs. Practical implicationsThe study on policy coherence for resilience in Sri Lanka has practical implications, including improved coordination and resource allocation, increased capacity building, improved reputation and sustainability. By integrating CCA, DRR and SDGs, this study can help Sri Lanka become more resilient to climate change and natural disasters, achieve SDGs and become a responsible actor in the international community. These implications can contribute to a more sustainable future and ensure that development goals are achieved in a way that is resilient to climate change and natural disasters.Social implicationsIncreased community participation: the study emphasizes the importance of community involvement in the policy development process. This can help build trust between communities and government agencies, improve transparency and ensure that policies are developed in a way that is responsive to local needs and priorities.Originality/valueBased on the identified existing loopholes in the policies and pathways to policy coherence, the issues in policymaking could be overcome. It could be used to establish strong linkages between policies based on CCA, DRR and SDGs to achieve long-term resilience.

2023

10.1108/IJDRBE-02-2023-0035

Gannouni, Sonia; Messedi, Aziza Ghram; Riahi, Rihab; Rebai, Noamen

Potential of and constraints on the application of remote sensing in Tunisia

EURO-MEDITERRANEAN JOURNAL FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INTEGRATION

Remote sensing is becoming a useful operational tool for decision support. Information obtained from space is increasingly available. Since the American Landsat program in 1972, many countries have embarked on Earth observations, and there are now about 100 operational satellites in orbit. The potential and the results offered by remote sensing are remarkable if we consider the relative ease of obtaining information of any kind (especially environmental parameters) in a short period of time and at a certain distance, which is then repeated over time or even, in some cases, almost continuously. It allows a wide spatial coverage, greater objectivity and accuracy, as well as a lower cost overall than conventional sensing methods. For developed countries, remote sensing represents a revolution in the field of environmental monitoring, since these countries are the main suppliers of spatial data and software for processing these data. Developing countries, including Tunisia, have found themselves obligated to align themselves with these changes and transitions, and to actively work for greater participation in the elaboration of these changes in the most effective way. Remote sensing has been used for more than 40 years in Tunisia. It has been applied in various fields of research and development, such as agriculture, mapping, and planning. The main objective of this work was to assess the potential of remote sensing to be applied in each of these domains in Tunisia through a comparative multi-criteria analysis using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Four criteria (data used, tools and software, acquired competence, and financial resources) that have a significant impact on the potential for remote sensing application were included in our analysis. Weights were assigned to each parameter through a pairwise comparison matrix based on the AHP method. The results showed that agriculture and land use planning are the areas where remote sensing has the greatest potential, with high weights for all criteria studied. Regarding the criteria studied, it was observed that the criterion of data used is important for all application areas, followed by skills. For agriculture and land use planning, the criterion of data used (c1) is considered the most important, with a high weight of 59.4%. This suggests that the data used are a crucial influence on the application of remote sensing in these application areas. For its application to mapping, the choice of tools used (c2) is crucial, with a high weight of 31.3% for this criterion. For the environment, costs can be an important factor to consider, with a relatively high weight of 12.9% for the financial resources criteria (c4). The results of our study were validated by comparing them with those of a technology needs assessment report for climate adaptation conducted in Tunisia by the Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development [United Nations Development Programme (2016) Tunisia: technology needs assessment. Report on climate change adaptation. https://tech-action.unepccc.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/05/tunisia-tna-report-1feb2016-adaptation.pdf]. According to this report, the highest-priority sectors for the use of new technologies such as remote sensing in Tunisia are agriculture and water resources management as well as coastal, marine, and urban area management. These sectors were selected because of their weight in the country's economy and their vulnerability to climate change among the various sectors analysed in the report (agriculture and water resources management, management of urban, coastal and marine areas, ecosystem management, tourism and health). We used a sensitivity analysis method called the Morris method. This method estimates the importance of each criterion and each interaction between criteria to the variation in the results. The results of this analysis show that criterion c1 (data used) is the most important for all domains, with sensitivity indices ranging from 12.8 to 17.8%. Criterion c2 (tools and software) is also important for the mapping and environmental domains, with sensitivity indices of 11% and 10.2%, respectively. Criterion C3 (acquired competence) is important for the agriculture and environment domains, with sensitivity indices of 13% and 12.3%, respectively. Finally, criterion c4 (financial resources) is also important for the mapping and agriculture domains, with sensitivity indices of 12.1% and 13%, respectively. In conclusion, the sensitivity analysis shows that the overall results are quite robust to variations in the criteria.

2023

10.1007/s41207-023-00399-7

Munera-Roldan, Claudia; Colloff, Matthew J.; van Kerkhoff, Lorrae; Andrade, German I.

Using a futures orientation to enable adaptation of protected areas under climate change

PEOPLE AND NATURE

Protected areas are central for long-term conservation of biodiversity and can potentially support climate change mitigation. But protected areas are also affected by climate change. Managers and scientists are increasingly facing the difficult task of making decisions under rapid change. Understanding individual and institutional futures considerations for adaptation is fundamental to evaluate whether protected area governance is adequate to anticipate, prepare and respond to climate change. Using mixed qualitative methods, we analysed adaptation narratives extracted from 51 semi-structured interviews with conservation practitioners and scientists involved in protected area management in Australia, Colombia and South Africa. We applied a multidimensional model to examine how people make sense of the concept of adaptation. The model allowed us to evaluate how different actors perceive and conceptualise the future and their level of awareness of climate change impacts on values of protected areas, as reflected in the expectations and motivations behind adaptation actions. The results show a plurality of adaptation concepts and approaches. The narratives are framed under different governance approaches (top-down, bottom-up, participatory) influencing the sense of agency, the rationale for adaptation (adaptation of what and for whom) and the level of acceptance of change. Action time is associated with preferences and actions in response to ecological change, with more proactive action linked with systemic approaches. We propose that examining world views underpinning how individuals and institutions make sense of the concept of adaptation can support future-oriented conservation practices despite the inherent uncertainty of climate change. The narratives presented here may provide a basis to facilitate deliberations about current practices and identify potential contradictions between individual and collective aspirations for adaptation to create pathways for collective action towards desired futures.

2023

10.1002/pan3.10547

Badora, Damian; Wawer, Rafal; Krol-Badziak, Aleksandra

Modelling 2050 Water Retention Scenarios for Irrigated and Non-Irrigated Crops for Adaptation to Climate Change Using the SWAT Model: The Case of the Bystra Catchment, Poland

AGRONOMY-BASEL

The paper presents the estimated changes in the soil water content, the total runoff, the sediment yield and the actual evapotranspiration for the small Bystra catchment in the east of Poland. The findings are based on the results of three simulations covering the years of 2041-2050. The simulations were based on a calibrated and validated SWAT model (2010-2017). The first variant covers just the climate change and the existing structure of soil cultivation for the three regional climate models supported by the EC-EARTH global climate model in the emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Variants two and three are based on the first variant in terms of the changing climate. The second variant, however, involves placing a pond in each farm in the catchment, while the third variant involves designing huge reservoirs as a result of land consolidation. Variants two and three occur in five adaptation scenarios each. The first adaptation scenario (V2.1 and V3.1) involves only increasing the number of ponds on the farm or increasing the number of reservoirs for non-irrigated arable land crops, i.e., WWHT (winter cereals), BARL (spring cereals), CANP (rapeseed) and CRDY (other crops). The second adaptation scenario (V2.2 and V3.2) involves growing vegetables without irrigation (instead of cereals). The third adaptation scenario (V2.3 and V3.3) involves growing vegetables with irrigation (instead of cereals). The fourth adaptation scenario (V2.4 and V3.4) involves partial cultivation of vegetables and cereals. The fifth adaptation scenario (V2.5 and V3.5) involves partial cultivation of orchards and cereals. The adaptation scenarios of the irrigation of vegetables from deep water-bearing layers (second variant) or reservoirs (third variant) contribute to the increase in water content in the soil, especially in summer, in comparison with the adaptation scenarios for vegetable cultivation without irrigation. What is more, the actual evapotranspiration was higher in the adaptation scenarios involving irrigation than in scenarios without irrigation. It is known that the changes in water content in soil and the intensification of water erosion are gravely affected by modifications in crops and soil cultivation. A change from cereal cultivation to irrigated vegetable cultivation or orchards increased the water content in the soil in most climatic projections. However, the increase in the number of ponds in the second variant had little impact on the soil water content, actual evapotranspiration and overall runoff, while the erosion loss decreased. With the lower precipitation levels in the years 2041-2050 relative to 2010-2017, as presented in the emissive scenario RCP 4.5, the soil water content decreases by up to 14% for most variants. Total runoff for most variants will also be lower by 4-35%. The percentage change in sediment yield will fluctuate between -86% and 116%. On the other hand, the actual evapotranspiration for most variants will be higher. With higher precipitation levels in the years 2041-2050 relative to 2010-2017, as presented in the emissive scenario RCP 8.5, the soil water content changes slightly from -7% to +3%. Total runoff for most variants will also be higher by as much as 43%. Sediment yield for most scenarios may increase by 226%. The actual evapotranspiration for most variants will also be higher. Irrigation variants tend to increase soil available water while increasing evapotranspiration and total outflow in the catchment as compared to non-irrigated LULC. The largest increase in the soil water content is observed in most irrigation variants for RCP 4.5 (annual average 316-319 mm) (V2.3-V2.5, V3.2, and V3.3) and RCP 8.5 (annual average 326-327 mm) (V2.3-V2.5 and V3.3) as compared to V1 (BaU) (315 mm-RCP 4.5 and 324 mm-RCP 8.5) for the years 2041-2050. On the other hand, the lowest increase in soil water content is observed in the V3.5 variant, with an annual average of 292 mm for RCP 4.5 and an annual average of 311 mm for RCP 8.5. Thus, for future climate change scenarios, irrigation with water reservoirs (ponds and storage reservoirs) should be considered. The study proves the rationale behind building ponds in small catchments in order to increase water resources in a landscape and also to counteract adverse effects of climate changes, i.e., sediment outflow and surface water erosion.

2023

10.3390/agronomy13020404

Thiault, Lauric; Gelcich, Stefan; Cinner, Joshua E.; Tapia-Lewin, Sebastian; Chlous, Frederique; Claudet, Joachim

Generic and specific facets of vulnerability for analysing trade-offs and synergies in natural resource management

PEOPLE AND NATURE

The concept of vulnerability as the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to a stressor is gaining traction outside of the climate realm, opening new avenues to address contemporary sustainability issues more holistically. Yet, critical notions that underpin vulnerability have yet to be integrated into its application to natural resource management and non-climatic stressors. In particular, the way generic and stressor-specific facets of vulnerability interact and can inform decision-makers about how interventions combine and/or trade-off remains unexplored. Here, we investigate the salience of the generic/specific framing in the context of Chilean artisanal fishing communities engaged in rights-based co-management and experiencing pressures from two stressors: poaching and market volatility. Specifically, we draw on market data combined with socio-economic surveys conducted with 446 members and leaders from 42 fisher unions to quantitatively investigate potential trade-offs and synergies between facets of vulnerability to poaching and markets. Generic adaptive capacity (i.e. flexibility, assets, learning, organization and agency) likely facilitated stressor-specific adaptive capacities to both stressors. High levels of specific adaptive capacity to one stressor neither increased exposure nor undermined specific adaptive capacity to the other stressor. However, adaptive capacity did not translate into exposure reduction as expected, suggesting that adaptation barriers may prevent fishers from mobilizing adaptive capacity into effective adaptive action. This study illustrates how breaking down vulnerability into generic and specific facets can help us better anticipate important trade-offs and synergies in management interventions. More generally, it highlights the potential of the climate adaptation and vulnerability literatures in informing place-based management of natural resources.

2019

10.1002/pan3.10056

Imperiale, Angelo Jonas; Vanclay, Frank

From project-based to community-based social impact assessment: New social impact assessment pathways to build community resilience and enhance disaster risk reduction and climate action

CURRENT SOCIOLOGY

Social impact assessment can greatly contribute to sustainable regional and urban planning. However, social impact assessment is used primarily in the context of pre-determined projects, while social impact assessment's role in informing regional and urban plans before projects are even conceived is under-estimated. Moreover, a narrow understanding of the social impacts of projects leads social impact assessment practitioners to consider such impacts as being the outcomes only of the technical characteristics and risks of projects and their implementation, rather than also of broader social, cultural and political-institutional processes. In this article, we reflect on these gaps in social impact assessment. We expand the conceptualization of the social impacts of projects to better consider how social impacts are also influenced by the social dimensions of risk and resilience, and by the knowledge processes and governance strategies that inform and regulate projects. We conceptualize these processes and strategies and design new conceptual models to derive the social impacts of projects. Finally, we reflect on the strategic role social impact assessment can have in enabling social learning and sustainability transformation in localities (i.e. community resilience) and across multiple governance levels (i.e. social resilience). With this article, we contribute to building a key role for social impact assessment in disaster risk reduction, climate action and sustainable development.

2023

10.1177/00113921231203168

Petzold, Jan; Kosanic, Aleksandra; Joseph, Felana Rakoto; Andrianina, Princy Rajaonarivelo; Ranaivosoa-Toandro, Sitraka Mireille; Andriamihaja, Onintsoa Ravaka; Voahanginirina, Leonnie Marcelline; Thien, Lara; Razanajatovo, Mialy

Nature's contributions to human well-being under climate change: Evidence from Central and Eastern Madagascar

PEOPLE AND NATURE

Anthropogenic climate change has an unprecedented impact on ecosystems and their services, with severe consequences for human well-being, particularly for the marginalised and vulnerable members of society in the Global South. The well-being of communities relies not only on material and regulating services ecosystems provide but also on non-material services. In this paper, we unravel the diverse ways that climate change impacts affect Nature's Contributions to People (NCP) and the well-being of rural populations in four sites in Madagascar-a biodiversity hotspot but one of the economically poorest countries in the world. We conducted participatory community workshops, mapping and semi-structured interviews with local residents across social subgroups to understand the mechanisms of climate-related degradation and the resulting impacts on different dimensions of human well-being through an NCP lens. We found that non-material services are generally more often associated with well-being effects. Climate change degrades material and non-material services through sea level rise, biodiversity loss, drought, precipitation and temperature variability, with consequences for materials, companionship and labour, food and feed, and physical and psychological experiences. Loss of land and forests is expressed through ecological grief. The outcome of our research provides evidence-based information to local policymakers, conservation practitioners, and climate change agencies. This information can help improve government efforts toward holistic conservation and climate change adaptation by addressing the impacts on the physical and mental well-being of the most vulnerable communities.

2024

10.1002/pan3.10595

Hamlet, A. F.

Assessing water resources adaptive capacity to climate change impacts in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America

HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES

Climate change impacts in Pacific Northwest Region of North America (PNW) are projected to include increasing temperatures and changes in the seasonality of precipitation (increasing precipitation in winter, decreasing precipitation in summer). Changes in precipitation are also spatially varying, with the northwestern parts of the region generally experiencing greater increases in cool season precipitation than the southeastern parts. These changes in climate are projected to cause loss of snowpack and associated streamflow timing shifts which will increase cool season (October-March) flows and decrease warm season (April-September) flows and water availability. Hydrologic extremes such as the 100 yr flood and extreme low flows are also expected to change, although these impacts are not spatially homogeneous and vary with mid-winter temperatures and other factors. These changes have important implications for natural ecosystems affected by water, and for human systems. The PNW is endowed with extensive water resources infrastructure and well-established and well-funded management agencies responsible for ensuring that water resources objectives (such as water supply, water quality, flood control, hydropower production, environmental services, etc.) are met. Likewise, access to observed hydrological, meteorological, and climatic data and forecasts is in general exceptionally good in the United States and Canada, and is often supported by federally funded programs that ensure that these resources are freely available to water resources practitioners, policy makers, and the general public. Access to these extensive resources support the argument that at a technical level the PNW has high capacity to deal with the potential impacts of natural climate variability on water resources. To the extent that climate change will manifest itself as moderate changes in variability or extremes, we argue that existing water resources infrastructure and institutional arrangements provide a reasonably solid foundation for coping with climate change impacts, and that the mandates of existing water resources policy and water resources management institutions are at least consistent with the fundamental objectives of climate change adaptation. A deeper inquiry into the underlying nature of PNW water resources systems, however, reveals significant and persistent obstacles to climate change adaptation, which will need to be overcome if effective use of the region's extensive water resources management capacity can be brought to bear on this problem. Primary obstacles include assumptions of stationarity as the fundamental basis of water resources system design, entrenched use of historical records as the sole basis for planning, problems related to the relatively short time scale of planning, lack of familiarity with climate science and models, downscaling procedures, and hydrologic models, limited access to climate change scenarios and hydrologic products for specific water systems, and rigid water allocation and water resources operating rules that effectively block adaptive response. Institutional barriers include systematic loss of technical capacity in many water resources agencies following the dam building era, jurisdictional fragmentation affecting response to drought, disconnections between water policy and practice, and entrenched bureaucratic resistance to change in many water management agencies. These factors, combined with a federal agenda to block climate change policy in the US during the Bush administration have (with some exceptions) contributed to widespread institutional gridlock in the PNW over the last decade or so despite a growing awareness of climate change as a significant threat to water management. In the last several years, however, significant progress has been made in surmounting some of these obstacles, and the region's water resources agencies at all levels of governance are making progress in addressing the fundamental challenges inherent in adapting to climate change.

2011

10.5194/hess-15-1427-2011

Stellacci, Stefania; Domingos, Leonor; Resende, Ricardo

Integrated computational approaches for energy retrofit of historical buildings in extreme climate environments

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BUILDING PATHOLOGY AND ADAPTATION

Purpose The purpose of this research is to test the effectiveness of integrating Grasshopper 3D and measuring attractiveness by a categorical based evaluation technique (M-MACBETH) for building energy simulation analysis within a virtual environment. Set of energy retrofitting solutions is evaluated against performance-based criteria (energy consumption, weight and carbon footprint), and considering the preservation of the cultural value of the building, its architectural and spatial configuration. Design/methodology/approach This research addresses the building energy performance analysis before and after the design of retrofitting solutions in extreme climate environments (2030-2100). The proposed model integrates data obtained from an advanced parametric tool (Grasshopper) and a multi-criteria decision analysis (M-MACBETH) to score different energy retrofitting solutions against energy consumption, weight, carbon footprint and impact on architectural configuration. The proposed model is tested for predicting the performance of a traditional timber-framed dwelling in a historic parish in Lisbon. The performance of distinct solutions is compared in digitally simulated climate conditions (design scenarios) considering different criteria weights. Findings This study shows the importance of conducting building energy simulation linking physical and digital environments and then, identifying a set of evaluation criteria in the analysed context. Architects, environmental engineers and urban planners should use computational environment in the development design phase to identify design solutions and compare their expected impact on the building configuration and performance-based behaviour. Research limitations/implications The unavailability of local weather data (EnergyPlus Weather File (EPW) file), the high time-resource effort, and the number/type of the energy retrofit measures tested in this research limit the scope of this study. In energy simulation procedures, the baseline generally covers a period of thirty, ten or five years. In this research, due to the fact that weather data is unavailable in the format required in the simulation process (.EPW file), the input data in the baseline is the average climatic data from EnergyPlus (2022). Additionally, this workflow is time-consuming due to the low interoperability of the software. Grasshopper requires a high-skilled analyst to obtain accurate results. To calculate the values for the energy consumption, i.e. the values of energy per day of simulation, all the values given per hour are manually summed. The values of weight are obtained by calculating the amount of material required (whose dimensions are provided by Grasshopper), while the amount of carbon footprint is calculated per kg of material. Then this set of data is introduced into M-MACBETH. Another relevant limitation is related to the techniques proposed for retrofitting this case study, all based on wood-fibre boards. Practical implications The proposed method for energy simulation and climate change adaptation can be applied to other historic buildings considering different evaluation criteria and context-based priorities. Social implications Context-based adaptation measures of the built environment are necessary for the coming years due to the projected extreme temperature changes following the 2015 Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda. Built environments include historical sites that represent irreplaceable cultural legacies and factors of the community's identity to be preserved over time. Originality/value This study shows the importance of conducting building energy simulation using physical and digital environments. Computational environment should be used during the development design phase by architects, engineers and urban planners to rank design solutions against a set of performance criteria and compare the expected impact on the building configuration and performance-based behaviour. This study integrates Grasshopper 3D and M-MACBETH.

2024

10.1108/IJBPA-03-2022-0044

Cai, Wenjia; Zhang, Chi; Zhang, Shihui; Ai, Siqi; Bai, Yuqi; Bao, Junzhe; Chang, Nan; Chen, Bin; Chen, Huiqi; Cheng, Liangliang; Cui, Xueqin; Dai, Hancheng; Danna, Bawuerjiang; Di, Qian; Dong, Wei; Dong, Wenxuan; Dou, Dejing; Fan, Weicheng; Fan, Xing; Fang, Xiaoyi; Gao, Tong; Gao, Yuan; Geng, Yang; Guan, Dabo; Guo, Yafei; Hamilton, Ian; Hu, Yixin; Hua, Junyi; Huang, Cunrui; Huang, Hong; Huang, Jianbin; Jiang, Qiaolei; Jiang, Xiaopeng; Ke, Piyu; Kiesewetter, Gregor; Lampard, Pete; Li, Chuanxi; Li, Ruiqi; Li, Shuangli; Liang, Lu; Lin, Borong; Lin, Hualiang; Liu, Huan; Liu, Qiyong; Liu, Xiaobo; Liu, Xinyuan; Liu, Yufu; Liu, Zhao; Liu, Zhu; Lou, Shuhan; Lu, Chenxi; Luo, Yong; Luo, Zhenyu; Ma, Wei; McGushin, Alice; Niu, Yanlin; Ren, Chao; Ruan, Zengliang; Schoepp, Wolfgang; Shan, Yuli; Su, Jing; Sun, Taochun; Wang, Can; Wang, Qiong; Wen, Sanmei; Xie, Yang; Xiong, Hui; Xu, Bing; Xu, Meng; Yan, Yu; Yang, Jun; Yang, Lianping; Yang, Xiu; Yu, Le; Yue, Yujuan; Zeng, Yiping; Zhang, Jing; Zhang, Shaohui; Zhang, Yao; Zhang, Zhongchen; Zhao, Jiyao; Zhao, Liang; Zhao, Mengzhen; Zhao, Qi; Zhao, Zhe; Zhou, Jingbo; Zhu, Zhenghong; Fu-chun, Margaret Chan Fung; Gong, Peng

Seizing the window of opportunity to mitigate the impact of climate change on the health of Chinese residents

CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN-CHINESE

The health threats posed by climate change in China are increasing rapidly. Each province faces different health risks. Without a timely and adequate response, climate change will impact lives and livelihoods at an accelerated rate and even prevent the achievement of the Healthy and Beautiful China initiatives. The 2021 China Report of the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change is the first annual update of China's Report of the Lancet Countdown. It comprehensively assesses the impact of climate change on the health of Chinese households and the measures China has taken. Invited by the Lancet committee, Tsinghua University led the writing of the report and cooperated with 25 relevant institutions in and outside of China. The report includes 25 indicators within five major areas (climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement) and a policy brief. This 2021 China policy brief contains the most urgent and relevant indicators focusing on provincial data: The increasing health risks of climate change in China; mixed progress in responding to climate change. In 2020, the heatwave exposures per person in China increased by 4.51 d compared with the 1986-2005 average, resulting in an estimated 92% increase in heatwave-related deaths. The resulting economic cost of the estimated 14500 heatwave-related deaths in 2020 is US$176 million. Increased temperatures also caused a potential 31.5 billion h in lost work time in 2020, which is equivalent to 1.3% of the work hours of the total national workforce, with resulting economic losses estimated at 1.4% of China's annual gross domestic product. For adaptation efforts, there has been steady progress in local adaptation planning and assessment in 2020, urban green space growth in 2020, and health emergency management in 2019. 12 of 30 provinces reported that they have completed, or were developing, provincial health adaptation plans. Urban green space, which is an important heat adaptation measure, has increased in 18 of 31 provinces in the past decade, and the capacity of China's health emergency management increased in almost all provinces from 2018 to 2019. As a result of China's persistent efforts to clean its energy structure and control air pollution, the premature deaths due to exposure to ambient particulate matter of 2.5 mu m or less (PM2.5) and the resulting costs continue to decline. However, 98% of China's cities still have annual average PM2.5 concentrations that are more than the WHO guideline standard of 10 mu g/m(3). It provides policymakers and the public with up-to-date information on China's response to climate change and improvements in health outcomes and makes the following policy recommendations. (1) Promote systematic thinking in the related departments and strengthen multi-departmental cooperation. Sectors related to climate and development in China should incorporate health perspectives into their policymaking and actions, demonstrating WHO's and President Xi Jinping's so-called health-in-all-policies principle. (2) Include clear goals and timelines for climate-related health impact assessments and health adaptation plans at both the national and the regional levels in the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for 2035. (3) Strengthen China's climate mitigation actions and ensure that health is included in China's pathway to carbon neutrality. By promoting investments in zero-carbon technologies and reducing fossil fuel subsidies, the current rebounding trend in carbon emissions will be reversed and lead to a healthy, low-carbon future. (4) Increase awareness of the linkages between climate change and health at all levels. Health professionals, the academic community, and traditional and new media should raise the awareness of the public and policymakers on the important linkages between climate change and health.

2023

10.1360/TB-2022-0709

Vahanvati, Mittul; McEvoy, Darryn; Iyer-Raniga, Usha

Inclusive and resilient shelter guide: accounting for the needs of informal settlements in Solomon Islands

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RESILIENCE IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT

PurposeThis paper aims to highlight the localised shelter solutions to fulfil adequate and disaster resilient housing needs of urban informal settlers of Honiara, the capital city of Solomon Islands, in a way that is sensitive to their unique challenges, values and aspirations, is gender- and disability-inclusive, and considers housing from the complete lifecycle of a disaster (pre-, during- and post-). Design/methodology/approachQualitative data was gathered through empirical research through five community workshops at five hotspot settlements, two stakeholder workshops and a stakeholder interview. Semi-structured questions as well as photographs of housing and settlement were used for data collection. With an emphasis on self-recovery, the identified shelter needs were then matched with the roles and responsibilities of the Government to support a process of assisted self-preparedness and recovery. FindingsThe output of the research was the Solomon Islands Shelter Guide. This paper draws from the Guide to present some of the findings. One of the key findings was an emphasis on shelter self-preparedness and self-recovery. However, in order for them to do that, they needed a combination of assistance - technical knowledge, materials and financial support - which is tailored to their settlement's specific needs and based on hazard damage assessment. While the Guide provides one form of the assistance (i.e. technical), this paper is a call for action from the Solomon Islands Government and shelter responders to fulfil the rest of the community needs for shelter adequacy. Research limitations/implicationsThe paper contributes to existing scholarship on shelter after disasters by adding assisted in front of self-recovery, in line with the limited access to resources by the most vulnerable to recover, despite housing being a human right and definition of adequate housing (UN-Habitat, 2015, 2021), which includes freedom of choice, entitlements and meeting minimum adequacy criteria. Practical implicationsThere are many implications of this research. Since the publication of the Shelter Guide, there is excitement among most humanitarian and development agencies, government authorities and the local communities in Honiara. The Guide forms the first step in contributing to identified needs and strengthening community capacities to self-build, self-recover or self-retrofit one's house based on their own choice of materials, design, social and economic circumstance. However, it provides one of the three elements identified as needs by the communities, as i) technical guidance, and a kit-of parts for multi-hazard safe housing, ii) financial and economic assistance and iii) a political voice or being supported and heard by the government. The research team are working with the same five urban informal communities in 2022-2023 to develop and operationalise local disaster plans (in partnership with local non-government organisations), capacity-building activities and translation of the Shelter Guide into technical posters (for local builders) and graphic novel in local pidgin language, as part of the Climate Resilient Honiara project (funded by the United Nations framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC) Adaptation fund and administered by UN-Habitat). In the longer term it would be worth evaluating the practical implications of the Guide or to examine whether the proposed socio-technical and governance guidance will find roots in the local culture. Originality/valueWhile the Guide adhered to internationally agreed concepts of self-recovery, incremental shelter and core space, it contributes to existing scholarship on shelter after disasters by adding assisted in front of self-recovery, in line with housing as a human right and adequate housing (UN-Habitat, 2015, 2021), including freedom of choice, entitlements and meet minimum adequacy criteria, all of which require materials and financial assistance by the relevant in-country authorities.

2023

10.1108/IJDRBE-10-2022-0098

Mechler, Reinhard; Hochrainer, Stefan; Aaheim, Asbjorn; Salen, Hakon; Wreford, Anita

Modelling economic impacts and adaptation to extreme events: Insights from European case studies

MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR GLOBAL CHANGE

Adaptation to climate change in Europe has only recently become a true policy concern with the management of extreme events one priority item. Irrespective of future climatic changes increasing the need for systematic evaluation and management of extremes, weather-related disasters already today pose substantial burdens for households, businesses and governments. Research in the ADAM project identified substantial direct risks in terms of potential crop and asset losses due to combined drought and heatwave, as well as flood hazards in Southern and Eastern Europe, respectively. This paper focuses on the indirect, medium to longer term economic risks triggered by the direct risks and mediated by policy responses. We present a selection of three economic impact and adaptation assessments and modelling studies undertaken on extreme event adaptation in Europe. Responding to a need for more economically based adaptation assessments, we address some relatively unresearched issues such as the understanding of past adaptation, the role of market response to impacts as well as government's ability to plan for and share out extreme event risks. The first analysis undertakes an empirical exploration of observed impacts and adaptation in the agricultural sector in the UK comparing the impact of consecutive extreme events over time in order to determine whether adaptation has occurred in the past and whether this can be used to inform future estimates of adaptation rates. We find that farmers and the agricultural sector clearly have adapted to extreme events over time, but whether this rate can be maintained into the future is unclear, as some autonomous adaptation enacted seemed rather easy to be taken. Markets may mediate or amplify impacts and in the second analysis, we use an economic general equilibrium model to assess the economic effects of a reduction in agricultural production due to drought and heatwave risk in exposed regions in Spain. The analysis suggests that modelled losses to the local economy are more serious in a large-scale scenario when neighbouring provinces are also affected by drought and heatwave events. This is due to the supply-side induced price increase leading to some passing on of disaster costs to consumers. The simulation highlights the importance of paying particular attention to the spatial and distributional effects weather extremes and possibly changes therein induced by climate change may incur. Finally, we discuss how national governments may better plan their disaster liabilities resulting from a need to manage relief and reconstruction activities post event. We do so using a risk based economic planning model assessing the fiscal consequences associated with the coping with natural extremes. We identify large weather-related disaster contingent liabilities, particularly in the key flood hot spot countries Austria, Romania, and Hungary. Such substantial disaster liabilities (hidden disaster deficits) when interacting with weak fiscal conditions may lead to substantial additional stress on government budgets and reduced fiscal space for funding other relevant public investment projects. Overall, our paper suggests the importance of respecting the specific spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme event risk when generating information on adaptation decisions. As our adaptation decisions considered, such as using sovereign risk financing instruments are associated with a rather short time horizon, the analysis largely focuses on the management of today's extreme events and does not discuss in detail projctions of risks into a future with climate change. Such projections raise important issues of uncertainty, which in some instances may actually render future projections non-robust, a constraint to be kept in mind when addressing longer term decisions, which at the same time should account for both climate and also socioeconomic change.

2010

10.1007/s11027-010-9249-7

Perez Bello, Alexis; Mailhot, Alain

Improving the Representation of Historical Climate Precipitation Indices Using Optimal Interpolation Methods

ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN

Defining a reference climate for precipitation is an important requirement in the development of climate change scenarios to support climate adaptation strategies. It is also important for many hydrological and water resource applications. This, however, remains a challenge in regions that are poorly covered by meteorological stations, such as northern Canada or mountainous regions. Reanalyses may represent an interesting option to define a reference climate in such regions. However, these need to be validated and corrected for bias before they can be used. In this paper, two data assimilation methods, Optimal Interpolation (OI) and Ensemble Optimal interpolation (EnOI), were used to combine four reanalysis datasets with observations in order to improve the representation of various precipitation indices across Canada. A total of 986 meteorological stations with minimally 20-year precipitation records over the 30-year reference period (1980-2009) were used. Annual values of ten Climate Precipitations Indices (CPIs) were estimated for each available dataset and were then combined (reanalysis plus observations) using OI and EnOI. A cross-validation strategy was finally applied to assess the relative performance of these datasets. Results suggest that combining reanalysis and observations through OI or EnOI improves CPI estimates at sites where no recorded precipitation is available. The EnOI dataset outperformed OI applied to each reanalysis independently. An evaluation of the gridded interpolated observational dataset from Natural Resources Canada showed it should be used with considerable caution for extreme CPIs because it can underestimate annual maximum 1-day precipitation, as well as overestimate the annual number of wet days.

2020

10.1080/07055900.2020.1800444

Usher, P

Integrating impacts into adaptation measures

ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT

A mechanism has been established to improve integration of international climate-related programmes. Known as the Climate Agenda it outlines a programme, that in a cost-effective way, responds to national obligations to respond to international agreements as well as their national needs for social and economic development. The paper briefly describes the Climate Agenda and the incorporation within it of studies of climate impact assessments and response strategies to reduce vulnerability The need for increased emphasis on climate impact assessment and for the development of effective adaptation measures is emphasised following the elaboration of a Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). UNEP's efforts to identify national programmes contributing to the Climate Agenda are described. The response from developing countries has, however, been very disappointing, even from countries where we know work is ongoing through funding by GEF or US Country Studies Program and other bilateral programmes. Initial compilation of information available so far shows that many developed countries are putting a lot into the area of impact assessment of not just climate change, but also climate variability. There remain some research gaps, especially in the area of assessment of climate impacts on ecosystems, hydrological systems, etc. Considerable efforts are presently being directed at reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases and in the case of developing countries, most efforts are being directed towards completing national communications and providing baseline data for future studies. The paper refers to early activities by UNEP in cooperation with other international organizations to undertake integrated assessments of the impacts of climate change on important socio-economic sectors and the later incorporation of lessons teamed into the IPCC Guidelines for Assessing Impacts of Climate Change. Later sections outline the development of a handbook on methods for climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies as a practical approach to national assessments and the development of appropriate and cost-effective response to climate change. The initiation of a GEF-funded project to apply the methods contained in the handbook and improve the results based on national studies is also described for both developed and developing countries. Working in collaboration with a team of international experts under the coordination of the Institute of Environmental Studies at Vrije University (Amsterdam), the goal of this ongoing project is to develop a valuable methodological tool that Parties to the UNFCCC may apply to develop national climate change impact and adaptation assessments. Development of these guidelines was linked to a series of country studies in Antigua and Barbuda, Estonia, Cameroon and Pakistan funded under a UNEP/GEF project. The application of the first version of the UNEP Handbook by national study teams in these four countries is making valuable technical and practical contributions and will ensure that the next version of the Handbook will be a more useful tool for experts in developing countries undertaking similar studies in the future. The methods contained in the Handbook are also the basis for similar assessments funded under bilateral development programmes in other countries. These and similar studies elsewhere are coordinated with the UNEP programme and will eventually aim to create reliable and comparable assessments, a compatible set of tools for such purpose and the identification of realistic adaptation options for incorporation into national planning for adapting to climate change. The paper also addresses how climate impact assessment and response strategies are undertaken as part of national enabling activities carried out in co-operation with UNEP.

2000

10.1023/A:1006305832380

Cai, Wenjia; Zhang, Chi; Zhang, Shihui; Bai, Yuqi; Callaghan, Max; Chang, Nan; Chen, Bin; Chen, Huiqi; Cheng, Liangliang; Cui, Xueqin; Dai, Hancheng; Danna, Bawuerjiang; Dong, Wenxuan; Fan, Weicheng; Fang, Xiaoyi; Gao, Tong; Geng, Yang; Guan, Dabo; Hu, Yixin; Hua, Junyi; Huang, Cunrui; Huang, Hong; Huang, Jianbin; Jiang, Linlang; Jiang, Qiaolei; Jiang, Xiaopeng; Jin, Hu; Kiesewetter, Gregor; Liang, Lu; Lin, Borong; Lin, Hualiang; Liu, Huan; Liu, Qiyong; Liu, Tao; Liu, Xiaobo; Liu, Xinyuan; Liu, Zhao; Liu, Zhu; Lou, Shuhan; Lu, Chenxi; Luo, Zhenyu; Meng, Wenjun; Miao, Hui; Ren, Chao; Romanello, Marina; Schoepp, Wolfgang; Su, Jing; Tang, Xu; Wang, Can; Wang, Qiong; Warnecke, Laura; Wen, Sanmei; Winiwarter, Wilfried; Xie, Yang; Xu, Bing; Yan, Yu; Yang, Xiu; Yao, Fanghong; Yu, Le; Yuan, Jiacan; Zeng, Yiping; Zhang, Jing; Zhang, Lu; Zhang, Rui; Zhang, Shangchen; Zhang, Shaohui; Zhao, Mengzhen; Zhao, Qi; Zheng, Dashan; Zhou, Hao; Zhou, Jingbo; Luo, Yong; Gong, Peng

Leveraging climate actions for healthy ageing

CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN-CHINESE

As China's population ages rapidly, the health risks associated with a changing climate are becoming more threatening. The 2022 China report of the Lancet Countdown, led by Tsinghua University with the contributions of 73 experts from 23 leading global institutions, tracks progress in climate change and health in China through 27 indicators across five domains: (1) Climate change impacts, exposure, and vulnerability; (2) adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; (3) mitigation actions and health co-benefits; (4) economics and finance; and (5) public and political engagement. This report is the third China Lancet Countdown report, paying particular attention to the impacts on the elderly and highlighting the urgency of taking action. We selected the most urgent and relevant indicators to complete a policy brief that provides a better understanding of recent progress on climate change and health in China. We found heat-related health impacts increased from 2020 to 2021, increasing heat-related mortality, reducing labour capacity, and undermining the capacity to partake in physical activity due to rising temperature. In addition, exposure to wildfire, extreme drought, and extreme rainfall also increased in different regions across China. In 2021, compared with the 1986-2005 average, people in China had an average of 7.85 more heatwave days (which led to an extra 13185 heatwave-related deaths), and a loss of 0.67 more hours of safe outdoor physical exercise per day. The rising temperature also caused the annual average exposure to wildfire to increase by 60.0% between 2017-2021 compared with the 2001-2005 average. Meanwhile, the engagement on health and climate issues from individuals, scholars, and public sectors continues to grow rapidly. From 2020 to 2021, the number of climate-related articles and documents on the official websites of four Chinese Government departments grew by 1.83 times, and the number of climate-and-health-related articles and documents grew by 3.7 times. However, older populations received marginal attention on this issue in media coverage, although they are more vulnerable to the health threats of climate change than younger populations. In most provinces, people aged 65 years and older are facing higher health risks of climate change than the general population. In addition, we found that the inputs and attention to adaptation are still insufficient compared with the increasing health risks posed by climate change. Based on the findings, the following recommendations are made to protect climate change-related health risks: (1) Increasing adaptation across governmental departments and accelerating investment in climate resilience. Adaptation across governmental departments and investment in climate resilience must be substantially increased to protect the health of Chinese populations. (2) Developing a stand-alone Health National Climate Adaptation Plan. Leaders must strengthen the response of local efforts to national plans, for example, by establishing a nationwide heat and cold and health early warning system with regional characteristics. (3) Prioritise climate change in health policies, with a focus on the wellbeing of vulnerable populations. Leaders should include climate change health impact prevention and treatment as one of the key responsibilities of the new National Bureau of Disease Control and Prevention. (4) Accelerating coal reduction and integrating health considerations into China's pathway to carbon neutrality. Leaders must strictly control the capacity of coal-fired power generation and accelerate the pace of coal reduction (especially in the household sector). (5) Promoting renewable energy generation and consumption by redirecting fossil fuel subsidies to China's low-carbon economy. Leaders should keep encouraging renewable energy generation and consumption.

2023

10.1360/TB-2023-0366

Ingram, J. S. I.; Gregory, P. J.; Izac, A. -M.

The role of agronomic research in climate change and food security policy

AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT

Societal concern is growing about the consequences of climate change for food systems and, in a number of regions. for food security. There is also concern that meeting the rising demand for food is leading to environmental degradation thereby exacerbating factors in part responsible for climate change. and further undermining the food systems upon which food security is based, A major emphasis of climate change/food security research over recent years has addressed the agronomic aspects of climate change, and particularly crop yield. This has provided an excellent foundation for assessments of how climate change may affect crop productivity, but the connectivity between these results and the broader issues of food security at large are relatively poorly explored; too often discussions of food security policy appear to be based on a relatively narrow agronomic perspective. To overcome the limitation of current agronomic research outputs there are several scientific challenges where further agronomic effort is necessary, and where agronomic research results can effectively contribute to the broader issues underlying food security. First is the need to better understand how climate change will affect cropping systems including both direct effects on the crops themselves and indirect effects as a result of changed pest and weed dynamics and altered soil and water conditions. Second is the need to assess technical and policy options for either reducing the deleterious impacts or enhancing the benefits of climate change on cropping systems while minimising further environmental degradation. Third is the need to understand how best to address the information needs of policy makers and report and communicate agronomic research results in a manner that will assist the development of food systems adapted to climate change. There are, however, two important considerations regarding these agronomic research contributions to the food security/climate change debate. The first concerns scale. Agronomic research has traditionally been conducted at plot scale over a growing season or perhaps a few years, but many of the issues related to food security operate at larger spatial and temporal scales. Over the last decade, agronomists have begun to establish trials at landscape scale, but there are a number of methodological challenges to be overcome at such scales. The second concerns the position of crop production (which is a primary focus of agronomic research) in the broader context of food security. Production is clearly important, but food distribution and exchange also determine food availability while access to food and food utilisation are other important components of food security. Therefore, while agronomic research alone cannot address all food security/climate change issues (and hence the balance of investment in research and development for crop production vis vis other aspects of food security needs to be assessed), it will nevertheless continue to have an important role to play: it both improves understanding of the impacts of climate change on crop production and helps to develop adaptation options; and also - and crucially - it improves understanding of the consequences of different adaptation options on further climate forcing. This role can further be strengthened if agronomists work alongside other scientists to develop adaptation options that are not only effective in terms of crop production, but are also environmentally and economically robust, at landscape and regional scales. Furthermore, such integrated approaches to adaptation research are much more likely to address the information need of policy makers. The potential for stronger linkages between the results of agronomic research in the context of climate change and the policy environment will thus be enhanced.

2008

10.1016/j.agee.2008.01.009

Eneji, Chris-Valentine Ogar; Onnoghen, Nkanu Usang; Acha, Joseph Odama; Diwa, Juliana Bebuo

Climate change awareness, environmental education and gender role burdens among rural farmers of Northern Cross River State, Nigeria

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGIES AND MANAGEMENT

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the extent of climate change awareness among the rural farmers of Northern Cross River state, investigate the gender role analyzes of some daily routine activities carried out by these rural farmers, ascertain the difference in workload burden of the impacts of climate change between men and women, identify the strategies adopted by these rural farmers to mitigate the effects of climate change in their agricultural activities and investigate the roles Environmental Education (EE) can play in helping the rural farmers to design and adopt sustainable adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce or completely eradicate their vulnerability to climate change effects. Design/methodology/approach The research design adopted for this study is the cross-sectional survey method. Five research questions guided the study. Two sets of instruments were used for data collection, a sample of 1,258 respondents (0.1%) were selected for the study. The researchers personally administered the instruments and collected the same back, two instruments were not properly filled, so they were rejected. Findings The finding of the study revealed that rural farmers have some level of climate change awareness, which they got from radio, newspapers, awareness campaigns, flyers, billboards, among others. Six out of the nine strategies listed were adopted by the rural farmers to mitigate climate change effects among these rural farmers. There is a significant difference in gender workload burden between women and male in the area, the result is positively skewed toward women, implying that the burden of workload for women increased over those of men. The result also shows that EE can influence their attitude toward climate change through awareness creation, knowledge provisions and also encourage members participation in climate change effect mitigation, prevention and adaptation. Research limitations/implications With this result, EE can be used as a tool for the creation of knowledge, awareness, attitude and encourage the participation of these rural farmers toward mitigating and prevention climate change effects among these rural farmers. It was recommended among others that deliberate policies should be designed to make EE help create the needed awareness on climate change, beginning from the causes, effects and mitigation strategies among rural farmers in their community. Practical implications Already, most Environmental Educators have been trained, the government should design and formulate practical policies to use them as extension agent on climate change effort to go to these rural communities and create the needed awareness, knowledge, skills and attitude to help them combat climate change effects including trees and cover crops planting and also re-introducing the use of irrigation agriculture in these farming communities. Social implications With the creation of awareness, social groups and individuals can also make a social investment from these activities and also improve their social capitals, thereby reducing social burdens and improving their living conditions within the rural settings. Originality/value This research is an original research paper from the effort. the purpose is to assess the extent of climate change awareness level and how the effects of climate change increase or reduces the burden of gender workload among rural farmers and the strategies which can be used by these rural farmers to prevent, mitigate and adapt to climate change effects and the roles EE can play. This study has an original value in the sense that in the course of the study, the study hardly saw articles on these specific variables in whole research, hence the resolve to assess these variables.

2021

10.1108/IJCCSM-06-2020-0070

Courjault-Rade, P; Munoz, M; Hirissou, N

Geological caracterisation of plots belonging to the Gaillac vineyard (Tarn, Midi-Pyrenees) consequences on the determination of Basic Terroir Units (BTU) and the choice of vegetative material

JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL DES SCIENCES DE LA VIGNE ET DU VIN

Detailed geological analyses of plots belonging to the << AOC Gaillac >> area have been carried out in order to adress one of the main natural component ruling the terroir effect process. These plots belong to terraces of the left bank of the Tam river which coincides with one of the three main terroirs of the AOC area. Precisely, the analysed plots are localised on the rissian-aged (approximate to 200 000 yrs B.P.) terrace composed of alluvial shelves crosscut by small valleys where the Oligocen (ca. 28 My) marly molassic basement outcrops. Three different Basic Terroir Units (BTU) have been identified : terrace shelf. terrace slope and comb. Each of them has specific viticultural potentialities related to its topographical, geological and pedological characteristics. Representative profiles have been analysed in each BTU. Field analysis has evidenced that all rocks material have derived from Rissian alluvial deposits due to solifluxion processes when part of the alluvial material deposited on the terrace shelf has slept onto the slope overlying the marly Olicocen molassic basement. This solifluxion phase has taken place during the late-glacial Wurmian climatic oscillations interval (Bollering-Alerod episode ca. 12,000 years BP). Afterwards, during the Holocene period (i.e. the last 10,000 years) the alluvial-derived material has suffered pedolgenetic alteration. The nature of the resulting alterites depends on the initial topographic situation inherited from the late-Wurmian solifluxion phase. On to the terrace shelf the soil sequence begins by a reddish clayey horizon (up to 0, 6m) because of the erosion of the eluvial horizon during the last 10,000 years. It is followed by a thick (= 1 m average) reddish coarse-pebble horizon rich in clays and iron oxydes. On the terrace slope, characteristics luvisols have developped composed by an eluvial silty-sandy horizon (up to 0.60 m) overlying an illuvial pebble-sand level (up to 3m) where clays and ferrous oxydes are moderatly accumulated. Finaly, the thick (> 2m) dark silts and clays sequence (with scattered gravels and small pebbles) of the comb derive from the deposition of eroded soil material of the above terrace shelf and slope units (colluvium). On the basis of the role of high qualitative limiting factor played by the water stress parameter such as quality of drainage, permeability of soils, the down-side slope terrace unit appears as the most appropriate unit because of its slope gradient combined with the occurrence of a thick permeable pebble-sand sequence. Finally, combination of physical and chemical results - acidic pH and very low CEC - permits to recommand the Gravesac rootstock adapted to well-drained acidic soils and Syrah/Fer Servadou climatic-adapted grapevine varieties as the most suitable vegetative material. In addition, the knowledge of the geological component at the scale or the basic units allows for the adaptation of some cultural practices in order to enhance the viticultural potentialities of the plots. In order to encourage the vine's roots to dig deep and reach the sandy-pebbles horizon, two cultural possibilities are proposed: inter-row grassing associated with the << inter-plant >> method or earthing down under the row associated with inter-row ploughing. The choice will depends on the soil erosion amplitude if the inter-row ploughing method is used. The analysis demonstrate the efficiency of detailed geological survey using BTU concept as an operational tool. Further. it enhances that the geological component can be regarded as an amplification point of the terroir system as any alteration even of minor importance - of the geological parameters, may have noticeable consequences on the resulting terroir effect.

2005

Klinge, Michael; Dulamsuren, Choimaa; Erasmi, Stefan; Karger, Dirk Nikolaus; Hauck, Markus

Climate effects on vegetation vitality at the treeline of boreal forests of Mongolia

BIOGEOSCIENCES

In northern Mongolia, at the southern boundary of the Siberian boreal forest belt, the distribution of steppe and forest is generally linked to climate and topography, making this region highly sensitive to climate change and human impact. Detailed investigations on the limiting parameters of forest and steppe in different biomes provide necessary information for paleoenvironmental reconstruction and prognosis of potential landscape change. In this study, remote sensing data and gridded climate data were analyzed in order to identify main distribution patterns of forest and steppe in Mongolia and to detect environmental factors driving forest development. Forest distribution and vegetation vitality derived from the normalized differentiated vegetation index (NDVI) were investigated for the three types of boreal forest present in Mongolia (taiga, subtaiga and forest-steppe), which cover a total area of 73 818 km(2). In addition to the forest type areas, the analysis focused on subunits of forest and nonforested areas at the upper and lower treeline, which represent ecological borders between vegetation types. Climate and NDVI data were analyzed for a reference period of 15 years from 1999 to 2013. The presented approach for treeline delineation by identifying representative sites mostly bridges local forest disturbances like fire or tree cutting. Moreover, this procedure provides a valuable tool to distinguish the potential forested area. The upper treeline generally rises from 1800 m above sea level (a.s.l.) in the northeast to 2700 ma.s.l. in the south. The lower treeline locally emerges at 1000 ma.s.l. in the northern taiga and rises southward to 2500 ma.s.l. The latitudinal gradient of both treelines turns into a longitudinal one on the eastern flank of mountain ranges due to higher aridity caused by rain-shadow effects. Less productive trees in terms of NDVI were identified at both the upper and lower treeline in relation to the respective total boreal forest type area. The mean growing season temperature (MGST) of 7.9-8.9 degrees C and a minimum MGST of 6 degrees C are limiting parameters at the upper treeline but are negligible for the lower treeline. The minimum of the mean annual precipitation (MAP) of 230-290 mm yr(-1) is a limiting parameter at the lower treeline but also at the upper treeline in the forest-steppe ecotone. In general, NDVI and MAP are lower in grassland, and MGST is higher compared to the corresponding boreal forest. One exception occurs at the upper treeline of the subtaiga and taiga, where the alpine vegetation consists of mountain meadow mixed with shrubs. The relation between NDVI and climate data corroborates that more precipitation and higher temperatures generally lead to higher greenness in all ecological subunits. MGST is positively correlated with MAP of the total area of forest-steppe, but this correlation turns negative in the taiga. The limiting factor in the forest-steppe is the relative humidity and in the taiga it is the snow cover distribution. The subtaiga represents an ecological transition zone of approximately 300 mm yr(-1) precipitation, which occurs independently from the MGST. Since the treelines are mainly determined by climatic parameters, the rapid climate change in inner Asia will lead to a spatial relocation of tree communities, treelines and boreal forest types. However, a direct deduction of future tree vitality, forest composition and biomass trends from the recent relationships between NDVI and climate parameters is challenging. Besides human impact, it must consider bio-and geoecological issues like, for example, tree rejuvenation, temporal lag of climate adaptation and disappearing permafrost.

2018

10.5194/bg-15-1319-2018

Dai, Haixia; An, Jingyu; Huang, Cheng; Wang, Hongli; Zhou, Min; Qiao, Liping; Hu, Qingyao; Lou, Shengrong; Yang, Chao; Yan, Rusha; Jiang, Kejun; Zhu, Songli

Roadmap of coordinated control of PM2.5 and ozone in Yangtze River Delta

CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN-CHINESE

As dynamic growth engine of the economy of China, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region is one of the most densely populated regions around the globe with advanced industrial cluster and developed transportation network, which has brought the problem of high intensity of air pollutant emissions including nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), etc. Although PM2.5 air quality tremendously improved in recent years, ozone concentration showed an increasing trend, resulting in air pollution characterized by simultaneous high concentrations of PM2.5 and ozone. According to the 2020 Chinese Ecological and Environment Quality Bulletin issued by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China, 46% and 32% of the YRD cities are still above the Chinese air quality standards for PM2.5 and ozone respectively. Thus, coordinated control of PM2.5 and ozone has become the focus of improving air quality within the region. Facing the challenges of both climate change and air pollution, as a leading demonstration area in China, how can the YRD region first achieve the goal of simultaneous mitigating PM2.5 and ozone in the context of coping with climate change? In this study, based on a socio-economic development forecast framework coupled with the high-resolution air pollution emission inventory for the YRD region and the WRF-CMAQ air quality model, we simulated the improvement of regional air quality under different policy scenarios. The results show that the green low-carbon scenario (CP) has higher emission reduction potential than the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and the more progressive scenario of end-of-pipe (EP) control policy, making it an important path in building a beautiful and green Yangtze River Delta in the long term. Under the CP scenario, compared to 2017, it is estimated that SO2, NOx, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), and primary PM2.5 emissions will decrease by 55.1%, 26.5%, 25.2%, and 27% in 2025; and 66%, 56.4%, 36.1% and 39.4% in 2035. The annual average PM2.5 concentration and the 90th percentile of daily maximum 8-h average ozone concentration (O-3-8 h 90th) in YRD will reach 26 and 129 mu g m(-3), respectively by 2035, with 50% of 41 municipal cities in the region will even meet the standards in WHO IT-2. We show that to continuously improve the regional air quality, nationwide collaborations in the implementation of the strengthened abatement measures are needed in the medium and long-term attempts to simultaneously mitigate PM2.5 and ozone pollution. In the short- and medium-term, the end-of-pipe control scenario driven by the goal of beautiful and green Yangtze River Delta will play an important role in air pollution control. Starting from 2030, low-carbon policies driven by carbon neutral goals are expected to contribute significantly to the further reductions of both PM2.5 and ozone. To summarize, continuous and vigorous abatement in NOx and NMVOCs is the key to mitigate PM2.5 and ozone pollution, and to achieve the current national air quality standard for both PM2.5 and ozone, the NOx and NMVOCs emissions are expected to be reduced at least by 56% and 40% respectively, compared to 2017. The existing end-of-pipe control policy, in combination with other measures, including industrial restructuring, especially for NMVOCs-emission related industries (i.e. , industrial coating, petrochemical, chemical, rubber and plastics, pharmaceuticals), transportation restructuring, as well as the promotion of clean energy vehicles, non-road vehicles and ships are thus important means to the pollution control in the medium and long-term development in YRD region.

2022

10.1360/TB-2021-0774

Silva, Natalia; Mena, Cristobal

Identifying the underlying risk factors of local communities in Chile

DISASTER PREVENTION AND MANAGEMENT

Purpose - The purpose of the instrument is to favour and strengthen, in a timely and relevant manner, the processes of design, planning, investment, execution and evaluation of various public and private initiatives in the territory, thereby strengthening the preventive, responsive and adaptive capacities of the communities, institutions and territory. The instrument allows the generation of a single single-community diagnosis, a definition of a baseline which leads to progress assessment at different levels and provides specific risk management recommendations to municipalities. Design/methodology/approach - The definition of the purpose and design of this tool was the result of the work in a year by a group of national experts from the public, private, organised civil society and academia members of the National Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction. This initial stage has sought to capture the different sectoral visions with a multidimensional approach that considers the territorial differences cautioning that local governments are key actors to achieve risk reduction, and they are also the first respondents and responsible for managing their territory and community. In order to help local governments, to understand their situation, the experts' group established that the assessment should consist of a guided self-diagnosis using a survey. The dimensions considered are as follows: governance, territorial planning, socio-economic and demographic conditions and climate change and natural resources. The four dimensions encompass in total 41 variables that are considered relevant for the disaster risk management discipline. Findings - The rural to semiurban municipalities classified as medium or low development, according to the national standard, present a high-risk level in the dimension of territorial ordering. The municipalities that show a moderate to low dependence on the common municipal fund have a low risk in all the evaluated dimensions, related to greater financial autonomy and own or self-management of resources. The municipalities with low percentage of poverty by income are better evaluated in all the dimensions showing a low level of the Communal Underlying Risk Factors Index (CURFI). A high percentage of communes with a low level of the CURFI have low-urban growth in the last 15 years. Research limitations/implications One of the main difficulties was raising awareness amongst the mayors that the reduction of the underlying factors does not necessarily imply monetary investment, understanding the scarcity of local government resources. The important thing was to sensitise them that the diagnosisper sewas already a result to manage risk in their community. Practical implications - To be able to count for the first time in Chile with a methodology that allows diagnosing risk-based conditions and to target structural and non-structural measures aimed at reducing these factors in local governments. Additionally, it will be possible to monitor the reduction of the underlying risk factors (URF), for accompanying the work of the municipalities in terms of knowing if they have been able to implement the individualised recommendations that are provided. Originality/value - The methodology was formulated by reviewing and considering the methodologies applied in different regions of the world, which generally coincide in the dimensions that group the main underlying factors of disaster risk. However, the numerical treatment of the variables obeys to novel statistical processing (multicriteria method), which provides robustness to the model and, therefore, to the results obtained.

2020

10.1108/DPM-04-2020-0105

Anarde, K. A.; Moore, L. J.; Murray, A. B.; Reeves, I. R. B.

The Future of Developed Barrier Systems: 2. Alongshore Complexities and Emergent Climate Change Dynamics

EARTHS FUTURE

Developed barrier systems (barrier islands and spits) are lowering and narrowing with sea-level rise (SLR) such that habitation will eventually become infeasible or prohibitively expensive for most communities in its current form. Before reaching this state, choices will be made to modify the natural and built environment to reduce relatively short-term risk. These choices will likely vary substantially even along the same developed barrier system as these landscapes are rarely uniformly managed alongshore. Building on the results from a companion paper, here we use a new modeling framework to investigate the complexities in barrier system dynamics that emerge as a function of alongshore variability in management strategies, accelerations in SLR, and changes in storm intensity and frequency. Model results suggest that when connected through alongshore sediment transport, barriers with alongshore variable management strategies-here, the construction of dunes and wide beaches to protect either roadways or communities-evolve differently than they would in the absence of alongshore connections. Shoreline stabilization by communities in one location influences neighboring areas managed solely for roadways, inducing long-term system-wide lags in shoreline retreat. Conversely, when barrier segments managed for roadways are allowed to overwash, this induces shoreline curvature system-wide, thus enhancing erosion on nearby stabilized segments. Feedbacks between dunes, storms, overwash flux, and alongshore sediment transport also affect outcomes of climate adaptation measures. In the case of partial, early abandonment of roadway management, we find that system-wide transitions to less vulnerable landscape states are possible, even under accelerated SLR and increased storminess. Because humans inhabit barrier islands and spits (collectively referred to as barriers) these landscapes, that would otherwise naturally change shape in response to storms and sea-level rise (SLR), are influenced by efforts to protect development with wide beaches and tall dunes. These features interfere with a process called overwash, which transports sand landward during storms, building barrier elevation relative to sea level. Here, we use a new model to better understand how these interactions influence the habitability of barriers over time. Our simulations show that different management decisions made for adjacent coastal segments affect each other in positive and negative ways. When communities nourish beaches, adjacent to segments managed for roadways, some nourished sand reaches the adjacent segments, reducing shoreline erosion there. Conversely, portions of barriers that are managed only for roadways allow some overwash to reach the barrier interior; this negatively affects neighboring communities by enhancing their shoreline erosion rates. We find that early abandonment of dune management along portions of barriers may prevent highly vulnerable future states, such as barrier drowning. As communities explore choices for climate adaptation, our findings reveal the importance of coordination among decision makers in adjacent communities to avoid undesirable outcomes. When management strategies vary alongshore, their effects are coupled via alongshore sediment redistribution, influencing barrier evolution Beach nourishment (along portions of barriers) induces system-wide lags in shoreline retreat, even decades after nourishment practices cease More overwash (due to lower dunes or increased storminess) can prolong habitability, but drives increased nourishment frequency elsewhere

2024

10.1029/2023EF004200

Feliciano, Diana; Recha, John; Ambaw, Gebermedihin; MacSween, Kirsten; Solomon, Dawit; Wollenberg, Eva

Assessment of agricultural emissions, climate change mitigation and adaptation practices in Ethiopia

CLIMATE POLICY

The agricultural sector is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in Ethiopia, as it is the basis of the economy and the primary source of employment. This study investigated the implementation of mitigation and adaptation practices in smallholder farms in Ethiopia, estimated GHG emissions associated with mitigation practices, and identified potential mitigation options and barriers and enabling factors for implementation. Twenty-five smallholder farmers were selected by a local development agency and interviewed in the field about their land use and land management practices and the Mitigation Options Tool (MOT) was used to estimate GHG emissions, to identify mitigation options and co-benefits, and as a platform for promoting learning and knowledge exchange across different types of stakeholders. All farmers interviewed in the field acknowledged changes in the climate, but only some were implementing adaptation practices to cope with such changes, namely, crop rotations, planting new crop types, and the early sowing of crops. Fewer mitigation practices were implemented, namely reduced tillage and application of manure in cereal crops and potatoes. These practices were mainly implemented because of their benefits for soil conservation (e.g. fertility, soil water holding capacity, yield stabilization, erosion avoidance) rather than for mitigation (carbon sequestration) purposes. Greenhouse gas emissions from the application of synthetic fertilizer to crops, and from livestock production varied widely across farmers depending on the amount of fertilizer applied and the number and type of livestock raised. Tenancy rights and extension services were identified as potential enablers of the adoption of climate change mitigation and adaptation practices by smallholder farmers in Ethiopia, and competing uses for straw was a potential barrier for the incorporation of residues in the soil. Barriers and enabling factors should be assessed thoroughly through further engagement with farmers as well as data on the amount of organic matter added to the soil, as these practices have co-benefits in terms of soil conservation, which are especially relevant for climate change adaptation in semi-dry climates. The MOT could be used in the future as a facilitator for knowledge exchange between researchers and practitioners in Ethiopia, and in other developing countries where data availability is low, to support the identification of effective climate change mitigation and adaptation actions. Key policy insights Climate change mitigation practices in agriculture can provide co-benefits for adaptation and food security, including the stabilization of crop yields, especially in semi-dry climates; more evidence about these co-benefits is needed. The systematic collection of data on manure and crop residues should be supported as a priority as well as the identification of implementation barriers for mitigation and adaptation practices. Smallholder farmers need to be engaged throughout any assessment of climate change mitigation potential to raise awareness, identify co-benefits of possible actions, and to identify and address barriers for implementation. Tenancy rights and extension services are potential enabling factors for the adoption of climate change mitigation and adaptation measures by smallholder farmers in Ethiopia. In developing countries, user-friendly tools such as the MOT can promote learning and knowledge exchange across diverse stakeholder groups about the impact of land use and management options on climate change mitigation and adaptation.

2022

10.1080/14693062.2022.2028597

Martini, Camille

From Fact to Applicable Law: What Role for the International Climate Change Regime in Investor-State Arbitration?

CANADIAN YEARBOOK OF INTERNATIONAL LAW

While many investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) proceedings based on international investment agreements have dealt, directly or incidentally, with environmental issues, state measures relating to the mitigation and adaptation to climate change have been subject to a small number of reported cases. This article demonstrates that there is a significant gap between the number of investor-state disputes having a direct relevance with climate change, on the one hand, and the number of such cases that have actually raised climate change as a material legal or factual issue. In addition, arbitral tribunals faced with disputes related to measures or sectors that are of direct relevance to climate action have, to date, virtually never engaged in any sort of substantial analysis of international climate change treaties and related instruments, rules, or practices. Against this backdrop, this article will explore ways for arbitrators and parties to ISDS proceedings to better consider the climate regime - in particular, the Paris Agreement and instruments arising therefrom - in ISDS proceedings beyond its current limited role as an element of context. While the literature has mostly focused on integrating climate change concerns in ISDS, this article goes further by exploring how states' international climate obligations could play a greater role in the adjudication of investor-state disputes, including by providing states with a justification for implementing more ambitious regulations as well as tribunals with guidance for interpreting substantive obligations in investment treaties.

2024

10.1017/cyl.2024.2

Saha, Senjuti; Hazra, Somnath; Ghosh, Tuhin

How embankment influences coastal livelihood in the context of climate adaptation - a case study of Indian Sundarban Delta

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RESILIENCE IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT

Purpose The decision of livelihood based on the embankment characters is essentially multivariate. Making an effort to do the bivariate modelling may eliminate the useful socio-economic information in the interdependent and simultaneous adaptation choices (Dorfman, 1996). Hence, the more appropriate method is multiple-choice decisions to livelihood adoption based on the embankment category. The purpose of this study is to find out whether the inhabitants of Sundarban really consider embankment as their lifeline, what they think about its sustainability and what the outer world thinks about the embankment. Design/methodology/approach To analyse this study, the multinomial logit (MNL) model has been used. This model gives a platform to study the influence of the factors on livelihood choice decisions. In this MNL model, the livelihood decisions are categorized based on their primary livelihood status at the survey. Thus, the choice of livelihood among individuals is explained in terms of the livelihood and the household characteristics. Findings This result can possibly explain the fact that increasing population or man power and increasing annual income and protection from embankment failure may reduce the need to choose any other form of economy apart from the indigenous one, as the society is dominated by farmers who own very small plots of land and face consequences like crop failure every year because of natural calamities. A unit increase in annual income would result in a 0.53% decrease in the probability of choosing labourer as occupation and 0.57% decrease in the probability of choosing fishing/meen collection as occupation. Research limitations/implications The district is vast enough, and it is difficult to study all the blocks. Initially, nine blocks were identified as affected blocks from various literature reviews. Those blocks are Sagar, Patharpratima, Kultali, Gosaba, Kakdwip, Canning I, Canning II, Namkhana and Basanti. Pilot surveys were done to all those nine blocks identified above. After such a long and rigorous procedure, blocks were verified from available secondary data. Villages from vulnerable and less vulnerable parts of the later mentioned blocks are picked up as purposive sample, and household surveys are done on the basis of random sampling. Social implications If the year of schooling is enhanced, then the tertiary sector gets benefited, but the indigenous society of Sundarban cannot depend on such a sector as the scope for development is very limited. Consequently, policies aiming at promoting adaptation to challenged livelihood need to emphasize the crucial role of providing basic needs for better production techniques; and more investment in this sector will surely enable villagers to adapt cultivation following age-old tradition. Originality/value The study uses the MNL model to investigate the factors guiding household choices of different occupational adaptation methods, and cultivation is found to be the automatic choice for the inhabitants of Sundarban. Cultivation is impossible without embankment. Thus, the embankment in Sundarban is considered, as lifeline is established. So it can be said that livelihood in this region depends on the stability of embankment. This age-old structure is susceptible to vulnerability because of its unscientific construction and improper maintenance. The main objective of this study is to find out whether the inhabitants of Sundarban really consider embankment as their lifeline, what they think about its sustainability and what the outer world thinks about the embankment.

2022

10.1108/IJDRBE-08-2021-0119

Wu Jia; Zhou Bo-Tao; Xu Ying

Response of precipitation and its extremes over China to warming: CMIP5 simulation and projection

CHINESE JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICS-CHINESE EDITION

The relationship between regional precipitation change and warming is an important open issue in climate change physical science. Because precipitation in China has strong sensitivity to warming, quantitative assessment and projection on the responses of precipitation and its extremes in a warming world are crucial for better understanding of regional climate change and helpful for regional adaption to climate change. For this reason, based on simulations of 24 models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), this study assesses the ability of the models in simulating the responses of annual mean precipitation and its extremes to warming over China and its subregions, and then projects their change under the RCP4. 5 and RCP8. 5 scenarios that represent respectively a medium-low and high radiative forcing. The annual mean precipitation is defined as the total amount of precipitation from January to December. The precipitation extremes are measured by the R95p (very wet days) and R99p (extremely wet days) indices, which are defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). According to the definition of ETCCDI, the R95p and R99p refer to annual total precipitation when the daily precipitation exceeds the 95th and the 99th percentile of the wet day precipitation, respectively. Eight subregions determined by administrative boundaries and societal and geographical conditions, i. e., NEC(Northeast China), NC(North China), EC (East China), CC (Central China), SC (South China), SWC1 (Tibetan Plateau), SWC2(Southwest China), and NWC(Northwest China), are used in this study. The model performance is validated through the comparison for the time period from 1961 to 2005 between the historical simulation and the gridding observation dataset with a horizontal resolution of 0. 25 degrees X 0. 25 degrees in latitude and longitude. Quantitative analysis shows that the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble (MME) can generally capture the spatial features of the temperature, mean precipitation and precipitation extremes as well as the relationship of precipitation and its extremes with temperature over China. However, it underestimates the response of mean precipitation while overestimates the response of precipitation extremes over China region in historical period. The CMIP5 MME also has some abilities in reproducing the responses of the mean precipitation and its extremes to the warming over the subregions of China, and better performance can be found for the precipitation extremes. Under the RCP4. 5 and RCP8. 5 scenarios, concurrent with the temperature rising, the mean precipitation and precipitation extremes are projected to increase consistently over China. As the regional mean temperature rises by 1 degrees C, the mean precipitation will increase by 3. 5% and 2. 4%, and the R95p will increase by 8. 0% and 11., respectively. The response of R99p is much more sensitive, respectively with an increase of 15. 3% and 21. 6%. For the subregions of China, they all show positive response and the regional difference will decrease in the future. Moreover, the sensitivity of the precipitation extremes to the warming is higher than that of the mean precipitation. The stronger the precipitation extreme is, the higher sensitivity it will have. Besides, the response of the mean precipitation to the warming is larger in Northern China than in Southern China. The largest increases in R95p and R99p are projected in the Tibetan Plateau and Southwest China, indicating an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and floods.

2015

10.6038/cjg20150903

Wang, Qianzhi; Liu, Kai; Wang, Ming; Koks, Elco; Wang, Haizhong

Exposure of Global Rail and Road Infrastructures in Future Record-Breaking Climate Extremes

EARTHS FUTURE

Transport infrastructures built on historical experience are expected to face multiple threats under climate change, especially the continuous interruptive losses and additional maintenance costs caused by more intense or frequent record-breaking extreme climate events. In this study, we investigated the change in the exposure of global rail and road infrastructures to eight record-breaking meteorological hazards using the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate data, including extreme temperature and extreme precipitation. Our findings suggest that higher extreme heat and increasing thaw-freezing index ratio pose great threats to global rail and road infrastructures. The expected annual exposures of these two hazards are 4 and 2 times the average exposure level of eight hazards, respectively. Moreover, the exposure rapidly increases due to sharply increasing drought and heavy rain compound events as emissions growth and development accelerate, rising from 7% to 18% in eight hazard exposures. Sustainable and lower radiative forcing pathways would contribute to the exposure mitigation, with the peak exposure of eight hazards under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios averaging 29% and 52% lower, respectively, than that under the SSP3-7.0, which is an extreme scenario we may be on track for under current global efforts. However, the fact that most areas will still be affected by multiple hazards is probably unavoidable. Thus, in parallel with global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we recommend that the transport sector incorporate locally appropriate climate change adaptation strategies to avoid losses induced by record-breaking extreme climate events. Transport infrastructure has a notably long service life. Nevertheless, infrastructure designed based on historical experience may be vulnerable to record-breaking extreme weather events. It should be noted, however, that different regions are likely to face distinct types of challenges. In this study, we investigated the probability of record-breaking climate extremes associated with eight types of hazards that have direct implications for transportation infrastructure, and we identified the primary challenges confronting railways and highways in diverse regions throughout the world. Our findings indicated that global extreme heat and permafrost thawing pose particularly severe threats. Furthermore, there is an increased risk of heavy rain events occurring in dry months, especially in the late-21st century under the scenarios of rapid development and high radiative forcing, and more infrastructure is expected to be impacted. We also showed that it is possible to reduce the exposure of global infrastructures by 29%-52% by pursuing more sustainable and lower radiative forcing development pathways. However, the fact that most areas will still be affected by multiple hazards is probably unavoidable. In addition to the existing global climate adaptation actions, the transportation infrastructure sector should also develop appropriate local climate change adaptation strategies to mitigate additional losses. Globally, future exposure to record-breaking extreme temperature is higher than that to record-breaking extreme precipitation, especially extreme heatGlobal rail and road infrastructures will be exposed to more frequent drought and heavy rain compound events, which were less noticed beforeRapidly developing and high-emission scenarios will lead to rapid non-linear exposure increases in the mid-to-late 21st century

2024

10.1029/2023EF003632

Tian, Zhan; Wu, Wenxian; Liu, Junguo; Sun, Laixiang

A review of decision-making methods for climate change adaptation under deep uncertainty: With a focus on flooding control in coastal cities

CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN-CHINESE

Robust decision-making for climate change adaptation under deep uncertainty is a common challenge faced by policymakers and scientists in the world. In recent years, the limitations of risk assessment and adaptation planning based on the prediction results of climate models have become increasingly acknowledged. The uncertainties embodied in the model specifications, model parameterizations, prediction results, decision implementation process, and context changes bring significant risks to decision-making far beyond the general recognition of uncertainty drawn from historical data. Such combined and future-looking uncertainty is termed deep uncertainty. Researchers have applied robust decision-making (RDM) theory, adaptation pathways (AP) method, and engineering options analysis (EOA) method to climate change adaptation decision-making research. These theories and techniques can help scientists and policy makers to couple systematic analysis with thoughtful deliberation, typically in coordination with stakeholders, to consider the implications of choices under likely and unlikely future conditions, and thus to better grasp the impact of deep uncertainty on climate change decision-making. The literature on RDM, AP, and EOA is huge and in this review paper, we focus on their advancements and applications in the field of coastal flood control, and review the main strengths and interconnections of these three methods. The RDM method combines the traditional control theory with modern management decision-making theory, focuses on future scenario generation, cost-benefit comparisons of multiple adaptation measures under different future scenarios, and conducts the comparative static screening of the large numbers of scenarios-adaptation measure combinations. The AP method pays more attention to the most plausible scenario-adaptation measure combinations as time goes towards the future, rather than giving the full consideration of all future scenarios, and promotes the consideration of solutions that are adaptable through time. The EOA method is based on the framework of the AP method, with a focus on the specific engineering design. As a consequence, it may lack consideration for larger-scale application and implications. This paper considers how these three methods can be integrated to serve the decision-making process which is characterized by multiple decision goals, large number of plausible future scenarios, and large number of feasible mitigation and adaptation measures. A demonstrative case study of Shanghai is presented for this purpose. This case study proposes a framework to serve the mission of dynamic adaptation planning and engineering designs by combining the strengths of RDM, AP and EOA. We expect that the integration can help researchers to identify low-regret and even no-regret solutions that are beneficial over a broad set of potential future situations. Because the integration must depend on the continuous and effective dialogues among scientists, policymakers, local experts, and other stakeholders, it is bound to be a co-production process of the decision-making knowledge and such a process has the potential to improve public confidence on the proposed policies and solutions. Finally, we argue that the integrated application of these three methods and the process of knowledge co-creation in the integration process are the key direction for future development in the field of climate change adaptation decision-making under the context of deep uncertainty.

2022

10.1360/TB-2021-1218

Cattivelli, Valentina

Climate Adaptation Strategies and Associated Governance Structures in Mountain Areas. The Case of the Alpine Regions

SUSTAINABILITY

Adaptation to climate change raises important governance issues in terms of governance structures and mechanisms, stakeholders' involvement, and links with the existing and wider-scale strategies. Notwithstanding the increasing attention at the global and European level, precise recommendations for the governance of climate change at the geographical macro-regional level are still lacking. Macro-regions span several states with some common morphological or climatic features and adopt wider-scale strategies which are not mandatory or do not take sufficient account of the specificities of any included regions. Each region is differently administered and adopts specific climate adaptation strategies for addressing just the challenges of the territories they govern, without considering the effects on the neighbouring ones. They also decentralize the climate policies towards the lowest levels of government, and this has increased the number of local bodies involved and promoted the participation of non-governmental players and citizens. Within the macro-regions, local climate conditions and their changes can be similar; however, their impacts can vary significantly at the individual territory level, and their effects can extend beyond traditional administrative boundaries. Dealing with these changes is particularly challenging in the Alpine area, which extends across 48 regions/autonomous provinces belonging to eight different European countries and is governed by three different international/transnational strategies. This territory represents a fragile ecosystem due to the current climate changes, which have influenced the climate conditions differently at the local level, as well as the richness of natural resources, and the opportunity to exploit them for economic reasons. South Tyrol (IT) is one of the autonomous provinces located in this area that is currently addressing the expected and unexpected impacts of climate change. Unlike other Italian Alpine regions, this region boasts a wider legislative autonomy, which enables the creation of more targeted climate adaptation policies and their decentralisation to the lowest level of administration, including the non-governmental players and citizens. As a result, the climate adaptation governance framework appears complex and hard to govern due to the plurality of actors and governmental levels at Alpine and regional/provincial levels. The present article sheds light on this framework, analysing specifically the three above-mentioned governance issues: governance structures, stakeholders' involvement mechanisms, and links with the existing wider-scales strategies. While discussing these topics, it then refers specifically to South Tyrol for the case study. Based on the documental analysis of the climate adaptation strategies and resultant findings, the preferred governance mechanism for addressing the specific climate adaptation challenges of Alpine regions would involve adopting some of the regulations included in regional mono-sectoral plans. These regulations do not relate to wider-scale strategies at the macro-regional level and refer just to the administered territories. The participation of local institutions and citizens in defining and implementing these regulations is limited and not incentivized. Although important, interactions across Alpine, national, and sub-national policy domains are limited. These limitations are revealed in South Tyrol and partially also in other European Alpine regions.

2021

10.3390/su13052810

Feng, Zhe; Chen, Xiaodong; Leung, L. Ruby

How Might the May 2015 Flood in the US Southern Great Plains Induced by Clustered MCSs Unfold in the Future?

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES

The historic 22-26 May 2015 flood event in Texas and Oklahoma was caused by anomalous clustered mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that produced record-breaking rainfall and $3 billion of damage in the region. A month-long regional convection-permitting simulation is conducted to reconstruct multiple clustered MCSs that lead to this flood event. We further use the pseudo global warming approach to examine how a similar event may unfold in a warmer climate and the driving physical factors for the changes. Tracking of MCSs in observations and simulations shows that the historical simulation reproduces the salient characteristics of the observed MCSs. In a warmer climate under a high-emission (SSP5-8.5) scenario, the Southern Great Plains is projected to experience a near surface warming of 4-6 K, accompanied by enhanced moisture transport by the strengthened Great Plains low-level jet. A warmer and moister lower troposphere leads to 36%-59% larger convective available potential energy, supporting wider and more intense convective updrafts and rainfall production. Consistently, MCSs have wider convective areas and stronger rainfall intensities, producing 50% larger rain volumes during the mature stage. Extreme (99.5%) MCS rainfall frequency and amount will increase by threefold. However, MCS stratiform rain area decreases as a result of elevated stratiform cloud bases that lead to stronger sublimation and evaporation of precipitation in response to warming, resulting in reduced weak-to-moderate surface precipitation. Results suggest that global warming greatly increases precipitation intensity of clustered MCS events under strong synoptic influence, with much higher potential to produce serious floods without additional climate adaptation. Changes in extreme rainfall produced by thunderstorms in a warmer climate have significant implications to society. However, their projections are highly uncertain due to the inability of the coarse-resolution global climate models to simulate key processes in thunderstorms. Here, we use a kilometer-scale regional model to examine how the record-breaking May 2015 flood event in Texas and Oklahoma may unfold in a warmer climate. By tracking the organized thunderstorms that produced extreme rainfall in observations and simulations, we found that the model reproduced many key characteristics of the observed storms. In a warmer climate where the Great Plains warm by 4-6 K (a low-climate-mitigation scenario), these storms produce 50% more total rainfall and the extreme precipitation increase by threefold as a result of the warmer atmosphere that contain more moisture and larger convective instability. A sharpening of the storm is found where wider and stronger convective vertical motions produce more heavy rainfall while areas with weaker rainfall decrease. These results suggest if similar events were to occur in a warmer climate, the probability of more severe flash flooding may increase. Current flood control and mitigation strategies may need to adapt to the possible strengthening of organized thunderstorms in future climate. The historic flood-producing mesoscale convective systems are reproduced in simulations to examine their changes in a warmer climate Warming strengthens the Great Plains low-level jet to transport warmer and more unstable air that fuels stronger convective storms Storm systems have wider and stronger updrafts, producing a threefold increase in extreme precipitation frequency with warming

2024

10.1029/2023JD039605

Shahbaz Farooq, Muhammad; Gyilbag, Amatus; Virk, Ahmad Latif; Xu, Yinlong

Adaptability Mechanisms of Japonica Rice Based on the Comparative Temperature Conditions of Harbin and Qiqihar, Heilongjiang Province of Northeast China

AGRONOMY-BASEL

Japonica rice has been considerably impacted from climate change, mainly regarding temperature variations. Adjusting the crop management practices based on the assessment of adaptability mechanisms to take full advantage of climate resources during the growing season is an important technique for japonica rice adaptation to climate changed conditions. Research based on the adaptability mechanisms of japonica rice to temperature and other environmental variables has theoretical and practical significance to constitute a theoretical foundation for sustainable japonica rice production system. A contrived study was arranged with method of replacing time with space having four different japonica cultivars namely Longdao-18, Longdao-21, Longjing-21, and Suijing-18, and carried out in Harbin and Qiqihar during the years 2017-2019 to confer with the adaptability mechanisms in terms of growth, yield and quality. The formation of the grain-filling material for superior and inferior grains was mainly in the middle phase which shared nearly 60% of whole grain-filling process. Maximum yield was noticed in Longdao-18 at Harbin and Qiqihar which was 9500 and 13,250 kg/ha, respectively. The yield contributing components fertile tillers, number of grains per panicle, and 1000-grain weight were higher at Qiqihar; therefore, there was more potential to get higher yield. The data for grain-filling components demonstrated that the filling intensity and duration at Qiqihar was contributive to increase the grain yield, whereas the limiting agents to limit yield at Harbin were the dry weights of inferior grains. The varietal differences in duration and time of day of anthesis were small. Across all cultivars and both study sites, nearly 85% of the variation of the maximum time of anthesis could be justified with mean atmospheric temperature especially mean minimum temperature. Mean onset of anthesis was earliest in Longdao-21 at Harbin, whereas it was latest in Longdao-18 at Qiqihar. The maximum time to end anthesis and the longest duration of anthesis were taken by Longdao-18, i.e., 9.0 hasr and 4.2 h, respectively. Chalkiness and brown rice percentages were elevated at Qiqihar showing Harbin produced good quality rice. This study investigated the adaptability mechanisms of japonica rice under varying temperature conditions to distinguish the stress tolerance features for future sustainability and profitability in NEC. It was concluded that there is an adaptive value for anthesis especially regarding T-min and, moreover, earlier transplantation may produce tall plants. The results demonstrated that high temperature at the onset of anthesis at the start of the day enhanced the escape from high temperature later during the day. Early transplantation is recommended in NEC because earlier anthesis during humid days rendered for potential escape from high ambient temperature later during that day. Temperature influenced japonica rice significantly and coherently, whereas the influence of growing season precipitation was not significant. Daily mean sunshine influenced the japonica rice significantly, but the impact was less spatially coherent. The results foregrounded the response of the japonica rice to external driving factors focusing climate, but ignored socioeconomic suggesting emphasis on both driving factors to target future research and render important insights into how japonica rice can adapt in mid-high-latitude regions.

2021

10.3390/agronomy11112367

Pradhan, Aliza; Chan, Catherine; Roul, Pravat Kumar; Halbrendt, Jacqueline; Sipes, Brent

Potential of conservation agriculture (CA) for climate change adaptation and food security under rainfed uplands of India: A transdisciplinary approach

AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS

Rainfed agro-ecosystems, the purported grey patches untouched by the Green Revolution or most technological advances, occupy a prominent position in Indian agriculture. Cropping intensities and crop yields are low and unstable in these areas due to unpredictable patterns of rainfall, a host of biotic and abiotic stresses and adherence to traditional farm practices. This precarious food security situation is especially dangerous in the central Indian tribal belt (also known as the poverty belt) which is a typical rainfed area dominated by tribal communities. More than 90% of the tribal people are totally dependent on agriculture and produce much of what they eat. Small land holdings and their low productivity, along with uncertainties in rainfall patterns, increases economic and social risks for these farmers. With degraded soils and unreliable weather patterns, return on investment is uncertain and likely to be much lower overall than under irrigated conditions with better soils. Under such conditions, one approach to achieve improved crop production is to minimize soil and other natural resource degradation by adopting a set of crop-nutrient-water-land system management practices, such as conservation agriculture (CA). To assess the effect of introduced technology under local ecological and socio-economic conditions, the study focused on two ecosystem services: a) provisional, and b) regulatory through five treatments consisting of farmers' traditional practice (FP) which was conventional tillage with broadcast of local variety maize (Zea mays L); and four CA treatments viz., conventional tillage with sole cropped maize using line sowing of the improved maize cultivar 'Nilesh' (CT-M); conventional tillage with maize intercropped with the improved cowpea (Vig na unguiculata L cultivar 'Hariyalli Bush') (CT-M + C); reduced tillage with sole cropped maize (MT-M); and reduced tillage with maize + cowpea (MT-M + C). After harvest of maize and cowpea, mustard was planted as a post rainy season crop and all the mustard plant residues were returned to their respective plots as residue cover except FP. Under provisional ecosystem services, performance of CA on crop yield, and profitability was assessed through maize equivalent yield and partial budget analysis, respectively. Results showed that reduced tillage combined with maize-cowpea intercropping (MT-M + C) followed by mustard residue retention had higher system productivity and net benefits, an increase of 200% and 230%, respectively over FP. Under regulatory ecosystem services, the soil quality was assessed through calculation of soil quality index (SQI) which was highest under MT-M + C followed by mustard residue retention and lowest under farmers' practices. In terms of CA treatment preference, 35% of the farmers indicated a strong preference for MT-M + C compared to 14% for FP. Combined, these results clearly demonstrate the potential of CA to simultaneously increase yield, diversify crop production and improve soil quality which should support a move towards sustainable intensification of crop production to improve future household income and food security. Additionally, using a transdisciplinary approach fully engaged all stakeholders in co-designing the CA treatments appropriate for the farmers and local environmental conditions leading to significant impacts on economic livelihoods, environmental sustainability and food security.

2018

10.1016/j.agsy.2017.01.002