| 1 | |
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| الله الرحمن الرحيم في | |
| 2 | |
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| اللقاء الماضي كنا نحكي على ال versions of the | |
| 3 | |
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| efficient market hypothesis اللي عندنا ال weak | |
| 4 | |
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| market وعندنا ال semi-strong market وstrong | |
| 5 | |
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| market the main differences between the versions | |
| 6 | |
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| of the efficient market hypothesis to what extent | |
| 7 | |
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| the information is incorporated in the prices يعني | |
| 8 | |
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| الفرق ال ... ال ... ال ... الوحيداللي بيفرق بين أنواع | |
| 9 | |
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| الكفاءات السوق هي لأي حد بتنعكس المعلومات في | |
| 10 | |
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| الأسعار فإذا كانت المعلومات في حالة ال weak market | |
| 11 | |
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| السوق الضعيف بتعكس فقط ال historical prices | |
| 12 | |
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| الأسعار التاريخية بيكون هذا weak إذا كان ال semi | |
| 13 | |
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| -strong market بيعكس الأسعار التاريخية بالإضافة | |
| 14 | |
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| للأسعار الأساسية أو المعلومات الأساسية بيكون semi | |
| 15 | |
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| -strong market ال strong market بيعكس كل أنواع | |
| 16 | |
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| الأسعار كل أنواع المعلومات وفي اللقاء الفات يعني | |
| 17 | |
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| بس أذكركم أن ال ... ال ... ال ... ال previous meeting | |
| 18 | |
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| we say this is a weak market and this is the semi | |
| 19 | |
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| -strong market and the last one is the strong | |
| 20 | |
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| market السوق الضعيف يشبه أسعار التاريخ أو المعلومات | |
| 21 | |
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| التاريخية، والسوق الضعيف يشبه أسعار التاريخ، | |
| 22 | |
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| المعلومات التاريخية ومعلومات الأساسية، والسوق | |
| 23 | |
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| الضعيف يشبه أسعار التاريخ، المعلومات التاريخية | |
| 24 | |
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| ومعلومات الأساسية Okay So this is the thing | |
| 25 | |
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| Regarding your exam one of the questions in your | |
| 26 | |
| 00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:09,520 | |
| exam is like correct the following statement يعني | |
| 27 | |
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| في حسب الامتحان صحح المعلومات التالية خلينا | |
| 28 | |
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| نعطيكوا مثال The weak market reflects | |
| 29 | |
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| المعلومات القانونية فقط تقوم بإصلاح هذا الموضوع | |
| 30 | |
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| لديك | |
| 31 | |
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| 2 اختيارات يمكنك أن ترى أن هذا مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم | |
| 32 | |
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| مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم | |
| 33 | |
| 00:02:44,470 --> 00:02:45,390 | |
| مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم | |
| 34 | |
| 00:02:45,390 --> 00:02:49,290 | |
| مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم | |
| 35 | |
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| مصممم مصم | |
| 36 | |
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| نشوف السؤال الآخر كيف هتنعامل معاه The | |
| 37 | |
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| strong market incorporates | |
| 38 | |
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| the | |
| 39 | |
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| historical information | |
| 40 | |
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| and fundamental information and | |
| 41 | |
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| fundamental information what | |
| 42 | |
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| do you think فقط فقط ولا مش فقط okay only for | |
| 43 | |
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| instance corrective corrective where is the answer | |
| 44 | |
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| the correct answer | |
| 45 | |
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| بدل strong, semi-strong أو strong markets you just | |
| 46 | |
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| add here and drive it okay I think this is very | |
| 47 | |
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| simple questions هدول أسئلة سهلة and you can | |
| 48 | |
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| easily handle these questions okay just be careful | |
| 49 | |
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| on these questions انتبهوا لهذه الأسئلة you need | |
| 50 | |
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| to correct the answer Okay then based on this | |
| 51 | |
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| understanding we have two point of views some | |
| 52 | |
| 00:04:37,390 --> 00:04:40,870 | |
| people think that the financial market is not | |
| 53 | |
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| efficient and is not follow the random walk others | |
| 54 | |
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| think that the financial market is efficient and | |
| 55 | |
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| follow a random walk يعني بعض الناس بعتقدوا أن | |
| 56 | |
| 00:04:54,070 --> 00:04:58,800 | |
| السوق المالي مش efficient وما بيعكس السوق المالي ما | |
| 57 | |
| 00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:04,160 | |
| بيعكس السلوك العشوائي للأسعار وبعض الناس بيحكوا | |
| 58 | |
| 00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:07,760 | |
| بيحكوا لأ ان السوق المالي is efficient كفه وبيعكس | |
| 59 | |
| 00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:13,420 | |
| السلوك ... وبيعكس السلوك العشوائي للأسعار طبعا بال | |
| 60 | |
| 00:05:13,420 --> 00:05:16,180 | |
| meeting اللي فاتت حكينا بال technical analysis | |
| 61 | |
| 00:05:16,180 --> 00:05:20,380 | |
| الناس اللي بيدعموا فكرة ال financial market is not | |
| 62 | |
| 00:05:20,380 --> 00:05:26,220 | |
| efficient they think on the technical analysis | |
| 63 | |
| 00:05:26,220 --> 00:05:28,660 | |
| بعتقدوا بال technical analysis so they are using | |
| 64 | |
| 00:05:28,660 --> 00:05:31,060 | |
| technical analysis why they are using technical | |
| 65 | |
| 00:05:31,060 --> 00:05:35,380 | |
| analysis because they think that the historical | |
| 66 | |
| 00:05:35,380 --> 00:05:38,320 | |
| prices is reflected itself بعتقدوا أن الأسعار | |
| 67 | |
| 00:05:38,320 --> 00:05:42,520 | |
| التاريخية بتعكس نفسها بنفسها so they are using the | |
| 68 | |
| 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:46,040 | |
| charts لذلك وما بيستخدموا إيش ال chart إيش معناه | |
| 69 | |
| 00:05:46,040 --> 00:05:51,800 | |
| ال chart اللي هو المقاطعة البيانية فاهم بقى The | |
| 70 | |
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| success depends on a sluggish response of stock | |
| 71 | |
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| prices to fundamental supply and demand factors، | |
| 72 | |
| 00:05:57,400 --> 00:06:03,440 | |
| بعتقده أن ال technical analysis بترتب عليه ردود | |
| 73 | |
| 00:06:03,440 --> 00:06:07,660 | |
| فعل بطيئة | |
| 74 | |
| 00:06:07,660 --> 00:06:12,410 | |
| للمعلومات الأساسية weak firm efficiency relative | |
| 75 | |
| 00:06:12,410 --> 00:06:15,870 | |
| strength طبعا زي ما حكينا مرة فاتت بس تلخيص احنا | |
| 76 | |
| 00:06:15,870 --> 00:06:20,570 | |
| بنحكي انه في ال technical analysis بيحللوا ال | |
| 77 | |
| 00:06:20,570 --> 00:06:24,650 | |
| prices وبيحللوا ال trading volume و اظن ان انا | |
| 78 | |
| 00:06:24,650 --> 00:06:29,560 | |
| اعطيكم مثال على الشموع اليابانية فاكرين؟ واقتنعكوا | |
| 79 | |
| 00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:32,200 | |
| كمان على ال resistance and support اللي هو نقاط | |
| 80 | |
| 00:06:32,200 --> 00:06:35,740 | |
| الدعم ونقاط المقاومة وفيه هنا كتب موجودة بتوضح | |
| 81 | |
| 00:06:35,740 --> 00:06:39,280 | |
| العلاقات هذه بشكل كبير فممكن انتوا ترجعوا فيها بس | |
| 82 | |
| 00:06:39,280 --> 00:06:45,500 | |
| لمعلوماتكم الخاصة هاي عندنا مثال لما تكون | |
| 83 | |
| 00:06:45,500 --> 00:06:49,640 | |
| highlight channel when the price is close to the | |
| 84 | |
| 00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:53,180 | |
| to the top to the resistance the resistance | |
| 85 | |
| 00:06:53,180 --> 00:06:57,510 | |
| pushing the price down So the ... the investors | |
| 86 | |
| 00:06:57,510 --> 00:07:00,510 | |
| selling the price ... the stocks and when the | |
| 87 | |
| 00:07:00,510 --> 00:07:04,470 | |
| prices is going down and try to ... to touch or to | |
| 88 | |
| 00:07:04,470 --> 00:07:07,510 | |
| hit the support line, this is the support line, | |
| 89 | |
| 00:07:08,230 --> 00:07:11,410 | |
| the buyers try to trade and buy their stocks in | |
| 90 | |
| 00:07:11,410 --> 00:07:14,210 | |
| order to ... to make it up حتى يدفعوا الأسعار | |
| 91 | |
| 00:07:14,210 --> 00:07:18,630 | |
| للأسفل، بتلاحظوا لما يوصل عند القاع ال support | |
| 92 | |
| 00:07:18,630 --> 00:07:22,470 | |
| فبتحاول الأسعار تطلع لما تصدم في القمة بتحاول | |
| 93 | |
| 00:07:22,470 --> 00:07:26,490 | |
| الأسعار to what extent this is right إلى أي درجة | |
| 94 | |
| 00:07:26,490 --> 00:07:29,550 | |
| هذا صحيح some people as I said believe on this | |
| 95 | |
| 00:07:29,550 --> 00:07:32,350 | |
| others they don't believe on this بعض الناس | |
| 96 | |
| 00:07:32,350 --> 00:07:36,670 | |
| بيعتقدوا بالكلام هذا وناس بيعتقدوه مش بالكلام and | |
| 97 | |
| 00:07:36,670 --> 00:07:42,370 | |
| this is similar to this this is the top this is the | |
| 98 | |
| 00:07:42,370 --> 00:07:45,710 | |
| resistance and this is support the question is why | |
| 99 | |
| 00:07:45,710 --> 00:07:53,450 | |
| this channel is moved up ليش اخترقت نقطة الدعم | |
| 100 | |
| 00:07:53,450 --> 00:08:00,670 | |
| نقطة المقاومة اخترقها سبب انه بيعتبروا there is | |
| 101 | |
| 00:08:00,670 --> 00:08:05,930 | |
| event في حدث صار في السوق and this line وهذه نقطة | |
| 102 | |
| 00:08:05,930 --> 00:08:09,980 | |
| المقاومة ماقدرتش to push the price down ماقدرتش | |
| 103 | |
| 00:08:09,980 --> 00:08:16,040 | |
| تدفع الأسعار الأسفل فكان the strength and the fast | |
| 104 | |
| 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:19,580 | |
| or the speed of price is stronger than the | |
| 105 | |
| 00:08:19,580 --> 00:08:23,620 | |
| resistance يعني كانت قوة الأسعار وسرعة الأسعار | |
| 106 | |
| 00:08:23,620 --> 00:08:29,090 | |
| أقوى من المقاومة وبالتالي اخترقت الحاجز المقاومة | |
| 107 | |
| 00:08:29,090 --> 00:08:33,630 | |
| وبدأت تطلع إلى مستويات أعلى and having a new | |
| 108 | |
| 00:08:33,630 --> 00:08:39,450 | |
| resistance and having a new position وتتجه لمجال | |
| 109 | |
| 00:08:39,450 --> 00:08:44,330 | |
| جديد هذا بالنسبة لل technical analysis let's talk | |
| 110 | |
| 00:08:44,330 --> 00:08:47,290 | |
| about the fundamental analysis fundamental | |
| 111 | |
| 00:08:47,290 --> 00:08:50,870 | |
| analysis people think that the financial market is | |
| 112 | |
| 00:08:50,870 --> 00:08:54,010 | |
| efficient they believe on the fundamental analysis | |
| 113 | |
| 00:08:54,870 --> 00:08:59,950 | |
| and they claim that the prices reflect economic ... | |
| 114 | |
| 00:08:59,950 --> 00:09:03,630 | |
| economic financial accounting and industrial data | |
| 115 | |
| 00:09:03,630 --> 00:09:08,890 | |
| بيعتقدوا بتوع ال fundamental analysis أن الأسواق | |
| 116 | |
| 00:09:08,890 --> 00:09:12,330 | |
| المالية أو الأسعار بتعكس معلومات حقيقية بتعكس | |
| 117 | |
| 00:09:12,330 --> 00:09:15,190 | |
| معلومات اقتصادية، معلومات مالية، معلومات محاسبية، | |
| 118 | |
| 00:09:15,190 --> 00:09:19,460 | |
| معلومات مستخبرية عن المنشأة and this is opposite to | |
| 119 | |
| 00:09:19,460 --> 00:09:21,500 | |
| the technical analysis وهذا بعكس ال technical | |
| 120 | |
| 00:09:21,500 --> 00:09:24,000 | |
| analysis ال technical analysis depends on the | |
| 121 | |
| 00:09:24,000 --> 00:09:27,320 | |
| chart and saying that the prices is repeated | |
| 122 | |
| 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:30,940 | |
| itself technical analysis يعني التعوين التحديد | |
| 123 | |
| 00:09:30,940 --> 00:09:33,620 | |
| الفنلي بيعتقدوا أن الأسعار بتكرر نفسها لكن بال | |
| 124 | |
| 00:09:33,620 --> 00:09:40,680 | |
| fundamental analysis they think that the prices | |
| 125 | |
| 00:09:40,680 --> 00:09:45,540 | |
| reflected the fundamental value of the stock تعكس | |
| 126 | |
| 00:09:45,540 --> 00:09:53,470 | |
| القيمة الحقيقية للـ stock خلّينا نشوف why | |
| 127 | |
| 00:09:53,470 --> 00:09:55,690 | |
| it is important fundamental analysis as I | |
| 128 | |
| 00:09:55,690 --> 00:09:57,910 | |
| explained fundamental analysis using economic | |
| 129 | |
| 00:09:57,910 --> 00:10:00,670 | |
| accounting information to predict stock prices | |
| 130 | |
| 00:10:00,670 --> 00:10:06,730 | |
| يعني بيحاولوا يستخدموا الـ economic والـ accounting | |
| 131 | |
| 00:10:06,730 --> 00:10:11,000 | |
| information طبعا هي الـ economic مش الـ economics اللي | |
| 132 | |
| 00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:14,440 | |
| احنا بنفهمها بطريقة بسيطة الـ economics including | |
| 133 | |
| 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:18,180 | |
| the economics, including the industrial, the | |
| 134 | |
| 00:10:18,180 --> 00:10:20,700 | |
| competition, the interest rates, unemployment | |
| 135 | |
| 00:10:20,700 --> 00:10:23,900 | |
| everything related to the economy كل شيء بتعلق | |
| 136 | |
| 00:10:23,900 --> 00:10:29,580 | |
| بالاقتصاد منها المنافسة منها التطور للصناعة منها | |
| 137 | |
| 00:10:29,580 --> 00:10:33,560 | |
| الـ export و الـ import everything related to the فعل | |
| 138 | |
| 00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:37,960 | |
| منها الـ risk and return of the firm and the | |
| 139 | |
| 00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:39,740 | |
| accounting information accounting information | |
| 140 | |
| 00:10:39,740 --> 00:10:42,880 | |
| which also includes the financial information بت | |
| 141 | |
| 00:10:42,880 --> 00:10:45,200 | |
| .. بتضم كمان معها الـ financial information | |
| 142 | |
| 00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:49,780 | |
| المعلومات المالية if you look at here fundamental | |
| 143 | |
| 00:10:49,780 --> 00:10:52,100 | |
| analysis هدول الناس اللي بيقتنعوا بالـ fundamental | |
| 144 | |
| 00:10:52,100 --> 00:10:55,800 | |
| analysis و and they call them fundamentals يعني | |
| 145 | |
| 00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:59,300 | |
| الناس الـ fundamentals are fundamentalist الناس | |
| 146 | |
| 00:10:59,300 --> 00:11:02,440 | |
| اللي بيقوموا بالـ .. بالتحليل الأساسي أو fundamental | |
| 147 | |
| 00:11:02,440 --> 00:11:05,740 | |
| analysis they try to calculate the fundamental | |
| 148 | |
| 00:11:05,740 --> 00:11:11,120 | |
| price بحاولوا أنه بناء على المعلومات الاقتصادية | |
| 149 | |
| 00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:14,740 | |
| والمعلومات المالية والمحاسبية ووضع السوق بحاولوا | |
| 150 | |
| 00:11:14,740 --> 00:11:19,040 | |
| يتنبأوا بالسعر الحقيقي الـ fundamental فلنفترض احنا | |
| 151 | |
| 00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:23,050 | |
| for instance the fundamental price is V0 لو احنا | |
| 152 | |
| 00:11:23,050 --> 00:11:26,850 | |
| حسبنا الـ fundamental price is V0، V is stand for | |
| 153 | |
| 00:11:26,850 --> 00:11:30,170 | |
| the value, the value of stock، بتوع الـ financial | |
| 154 | |
| 00:11:30,170 --> 00:11:34,570 | |
| management في الإدارة المالية، اذا درستوها، في | |
| 155 | |
| 00:11:34,570 --> 00:11:38,270 | |
| الإدارة المالية احنا حسبنا how to calculate the V0 | |
| 156 | |
| 00:11:39,540 --> 00:11:42,240 | |
| خاصة تعيين الـ financial management in English | |
| 157 | |
| 00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:45,280 | |
| والتعيين الـ financial management in Arabic يعني | |
| 158 | |
| 00:11:45,280 --> 00:11:52,920 | |
| أكيد أخدته كيف نحتسب القيمة الحقيقية لسعر السهم | |
| 159 | |
| 00:11:53,680 --> 00:11:58,340 | |
| Okay فهي الـ V note فإذا حسبنا الـ V note خلينا ناخد | |
| 160 | |
| 00:11:58,340 --> 00:12:01,440 | |
| مثلا نفترض الـ V note is fifty percent fifty dollar | |
| 161 | |
| 00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:06,020 | |
| سعر سهم حسبناه بناء على الـ based on the economic | |
| 162 | |
| 00:12:06,020 --> 00:12:10,520 | |
| accounting information data the V note is equal | |
| 163 | |
| 00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:13,860 | |
| fifty dollar V note هذي estimated | |
| 164 | |
| 00:12:16,470 --> 00:12:20,890 | |
| it means هذا المتوقع we think that the fair price | |
| 165 | |
| 00:12:20,890 --> 00:12:23,630 | |
| and the fundamental price of this stock is fifty | |
| 166 | |
| 00:12:23,630 --> 00:12:28,790 | |
| dollars يعني احنا بنعتقد سعر السهم اللازم يكون | |
| 167 | |
| 00:12:28,790 --> 00:12:32,570 | |
| خمسين دولار سعره الحقيقي بناء على ايش؟ بناء على | |
| 168 | |
| 00:12:32,570 --> 00:12:35,470 | |
| المعلومات الـ economic الاقتصاد ومعلومات الـ | |
| 169 | |
| 00:12:35,470 --> 00:12:40,530 | |
| accounting و الـ financial و everything now the B | |
| 170 | |
| 00:12:40,530 --> 00:12:45,040 | |
| note which is the market price هذا السعر الحقيقي | |
| 171 | |
| 00:12:45,040 --> 00:12:51,640 | |
| الموجود في السوق market price is for instance 40$ | |
| 172 | |
| 00:12:51,640 --> 00:12:55,640 | |
| روحنا | |
| 173 | |
| 00:12:55,640 --> 00:12:59,660 | |
| احنا حسبنا السعر كان 50$ حسبنا حسبنا لما روحنا | |
| 174 | |
| 00:12:59,660 --> 00:13:05,240 | |
| السوق نشوف قيمة السهم في السوق لنقر 40$ what do | |
| 175 | |
| 00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:09,640 | |
| you think ايش رأيكوا buy او sell نشريها للشركة و | |
| 176 | |
| 00:13:09,640 --> 00:13:22,630 | |
| لنبيها نشريها why is under priced نشريها صح buy | |
| 177 | |
| 00:13:22,630 --> 00:13:27,050 | |
| احنا بنعمل buy buy this stock because the | |
| 178 | |
| 00:13:27,050 --> 00:13:30,450 | |
| fundamental price is fifty dollarthe fundamental | |
| 179 | |
| 00:13:30,450 --> 00:13:34,390 | |
| it means the real price is fifty dollars however | |
| 180 | |
| 00:13:34,390 --> 00:13:37,050 | |
| the market price is forty dollars which is below | |
| 181 | |
| 00:13:37,050 --> 00:13:42,070 | |
| the expected price so it means the market | |
| 182 | |
| 00:13:42,070 --> 00:13:45,310 | |
| mechanisms or the investors try to buy this price | |
| 183 | |
| 00:13:45,310 --> 00:13:48,630 | |
| to go to this price يعني بده يحاول يشتري هذا السعر | |
| 184 | |
| 00:13:48,630 --> 00:13:53,830 | |
| حتى يساوي هذا السعر so this is under priced okay | |
| 185 | |
| 00:13:53,830 --> 00:13:59,010 | |
| if the opposite إذا كان العكس we calculate this by | |
| 186 | |
| 00:13:59,010 --> 00:14:03,030 | |
| fifty dollar but the .. so you understand this | |
| 187 | |
| 00:14:03,030 --> 00:14:11,510 | |
| واضح okay if .. اسمها ايه؟ قبل ما نبدأ احكي عادي | |
| 188 | |
| 00:14:11,510 --> 00:14:19,970 | |
| هتسأل لأنه هلأ اذا ب .. طالما ما في فرض مش سامي | |
| 189 | |
| 00:14:19,970 --> 00:14:23,550 | |
| الفصل السامي | |
| 190 | |
| 00:14:23,550 --> 00:14:30,170 | |
| اللي هم مابيشيوش على حساب خمسين على حساب أبريل، لأ | |
| 191 | |
| 00:14:30,170 --> 00:14:35,050 | |
| خليني يا بابا أقولك انتظر بسمعي شويّة، هلأ السعر في | |
| 192 | |
| 00:14:35,050 --> 00:14:40,350 | |
| السوق كام؟ أربعين دولار، السعر المتوقع خمسين | |
| 193 | |
| 00:14:40,350 --> 00:14:47,040 | |
| دولار، فهم السعر الحقيقي للسهم هو خمسين بس السعر في | |
| 194 | |
| 00:14:47,040 --> 00:14:50,380 | |
| السوق الآن بيبقى 40 دولار إذا سعره أقل من الحقيقة | |
| 195 | |
| 00:14:50,380 --> 00:14:53,420 | |
| صح فإنت بوجهك نظرة ايش راح تسوي راح تضلك تشتريه | |
| 196 | |
| 00:14:53,420 --> 00:14:56,900 | |
| لأنه بيصير supply كل ما بيصير demand كل ما بيصير | |
| 197 | |
| 00:14:56,900 --> 00:15:01,200 | |
| demand ايش بيصير في السعر بيرتفع طيب بيضلوا يرتفع | |
| 198 | |
| 00:15:01,200 --> 00:15:03,660 | |
| السعر لما يساوي الـ 50 دولار بيصير equilibrium | |
| 199 | |
| 00:15:03,660 --> 00:15:08,240 | |
| price بيصير سعر التوازن لما يصير سعر التوازن بيبطل | |
| 200 | |
| 00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:13,500 | |
| فيه trade طبعا وضحك هاي طب خلينا ناخد الـ the | |
| 201 | |
| 00:15:13,500 --> 00:15:26,970 | |
| opposite العكس if .. if B node is 55$ يعني حسبنا | |
| 202 | |
| 00:15:26,970 --> 00:15:30,590 | |
| السعر بناءً على الـ information economic و الـ | |
| 203 | |
| 00:15:30,590 --> 00:15:34,350 | |
| accounting information and we find it 50$ but when | |
| 204 | |
| 00:15:34,350 --> 00:15:42,020 | |
| we go to the market it was 55$ يعني under priced or | |
| 205 | |
| 00:15:42,020 --> 00:15:46,380 | |
| over priced over priced يعني أعلى من السعر الحقيقي | |
| 206 | |
| 00:15:46,380 --> 00:15:51,840 | |
| over priced so what people doing here what people | |
| 207 | |
| 00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:56,220 | |
| doing here they are selling هيبيعوا عشان السعر | |
| 208 | |
| 00:15:56,220 --> 00:16:04,020 | |
| ينزل لعند الـ fifty dollar they sell this okay so | |
| 209 | |
| 00:16:04,020 --> 00:16:10,000 | |
| the fundamental analysis الموضوع الأول أو الموضوع | |
| 210 | |
| 00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:15,980 | |
| الرئيسي للتحليل الأساسي هو تقدير السعر الأساسي | |
| 211 | |
| 00:16:15,980 --> 00:16:22,700 | |
| ومقارنة السعر الأساسي مع السعر السوقي إذا كان | |
| 212 | |
| 00:16:22,700 --> 00:16:30,880 | |
| السعر الأساسي أكثر أو أكثر من السعر المتوقع أو | |
| 213 | |
| 00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:36,740 | |
| السعر السوقي فهو تحت السعر، لذلك نشتري إذا كانت | |
| 214 | |
| 00:16:36,740 --> 00:16:40,900 | |
| تقريبا من قيمة السوق، فنقوم بالبيع لأنها تقريبا | |
| 215 | |
| 00:16:40,900 --> 00:16:47,040 | |
| من قيمة السوق، حسنًا؟ فهذا هو الأمر فقط | |
| 216 | |
| 00:16:47,040 --> 00:16:54,700 | |
| لكي أفهم ما يعني تحديث الأساس، نعم، | |
| 217 | |
| 00:16:54,700 --> 00:17:00,750 | |
| يبدو هكذا the main objective the other objectives | |
| 218 | |
| 00:17:00,750 --> 00:17:03,470 | |
| of the fundamental analysis is to try to find | |
| 219 | |
| 00:17:03,470 --> 00:17:06,230 | |
| things that are better than everyone else | |
| 220 | |
| 00:17:06,230 --> 00:17:10,390 | |
| estimates نحاول | |
| 221 | |
| 00:17:10,390 --> 00:17:14,910 | |
| نوجد طريقة حسابية | |
| 222 | |
| 00:17:14,910 --> 00:17:19,010 | |
| طريقة معادلات الناس الثانية مابقدروش يستخدموها to | |
| 223 | |
| 00:17:19,010 --> 00:17:23,270 | |
| estimate the price راحظوا احنا هنا there are | |
| 224 | |
| 00:17:23,270 --> 00:17:27,130 | |
| different methods to estimate the V notes الناس | |
| 225 | |
| 00:17:27,130 --> 00:17:30,090 | |
| بتسابقوا يشوفوا ايش الطريقة الصح لنا نعمل فيها الـ | |
| 226 | |
| 00:17:30,090 --> 00:17:33,370 | |
| V0 فهذه الـ techniques مرات احنا بنستخدم معادلات | |
| 227 | |
| 00:17:33,370 --> 00:17:35,870 | |
| رياضية is very complicated mathematical solution | |
| 228 | |
| 00:17:35,870 --> 00:17:41,710 | |
| to find out what is the V0 so the most important | |
| 229 | |
| 00:17:41,710 --> 00:17:44,510 | |
| thing is to find how we can estimate this using | |
| 230 | |
| 00:17:44,510 --> 00:17:47,590 | |
| advanced techniques advanced tools in order to | |
| 231 | |
| 00:17:47,590 --> 00:17:52,070 | |
| estimate the V0 and once we use this we have | |
| 232 | |
| 00:17:52,070 --> 00:17:53,110 | |
| better understanding | |
| 233 | |
| 00:18:00,620 --> 00:18:06,660 | |
| it's chapter لو جينا احنا حكينا قروبة قيمولها الـ | |
| 234 | |
| 00:18:06,660 --> 00:18:13,040 | |
| .. قيمولها الـ stock أساسي سهم لو جينا احنا بدنا | |
| 235 | |
| 00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:20,620 | |
| نقيم سهم سهم مثلا IBM what are the tools that you | |
| 236 | |
| 00:18:20,620 --> 00:18:25,150 | |
| can use ايش الـ tools اللي انتوا ممكن تستخدموها ممكن | |
| 237 | |
| 00:18:25,150 --> 00:18:29,790 | |
| نستخدم مثلا الـ average ممكن نستخدم الـ median ممكن | |
| 238 | |
| 00:18:29,790 --> 00:18:34,210 | |
| نستخدم sigma ممكن نستخدم الـ variance and these tools are | |
| 239 | |
| 00:18:34,210 --> 00:18:38,430 | |
| available for everyone هذه الـ tools متوفرة للكل so | |
| 240 | |
| 00:18:38,430 --> 00:18:41,790 | |
| it is not considered as advanced tool لا تعتبر | |
| 241 | |
| 00:18:41,790 --> 00:18:46,010 | |
| يعني هذه في ناس بيستخدموا تقنيات كثير متقدمة | |
| 242 | |
| 00:18:46,010 --> 00:18:49,810 | |
| رياضيا عشان يعملوا estimation للـ V notes بس هذه | |
| 243 | |
| 00:18:49,810 --> 00:18:53,150 | |
| التقنيات الكل بعرفها أي واحد أي طالب في الجامعة أي | |
| 244 | |
| 00:18:53,150 --> 00:18:58,320 | |
| واحد خلص ممكن يعملهالكن some professional people | |
| 245 | |
| 00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:00,920 | |
| الناس الـ professional they are using advanced tool | |
| 246 | |
| 00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:08,820 | |
| because they want to know which is stock perform | |
| 247 | |
| 00:19:08,820 --> 00:19:11,900 | |
| better than others يعني بيشوفوا السهم اللي بيعمل | |
| 248 | |
| 00:19:11,900 --> 00:19:15,960 | |
| أحسن من الآخرين لأنه لو احنا كلنا لو خمسين | |
| 249 | |
| 00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:20,540 | |
| investors في الـ store بيستخدموا the same tool they | |
| 250 | |
| 00:19:20,540 --> 00:19:24,360 | |
| will end up with the same results مظبوط ولا لأ؟ لو | |
| 251 | |
| 00:19:24,360 --> 00:19:27,060 | |
| خمسين شخص، خمسين مستثمر موجودين في السوق يستخدموا | |
| 252 | |
| 00:19:27,060 --> 00:19:32,520 | |
| نفس الـ tools، هيوصلوا لنفس النتيجة، إذا كان واحد | |
| 253 | |
| 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:37,880 | |
| of them is more professional than others، إذا كان | |
| 254 | |
| 00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:41,680 | |
| واحد أكثر professional، أكثر احتراف من الآخرين، so | |
| 255 | |
| 00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:45,330 | |
| he or she may use different tools يعني ممكن يستخدم | |
| 256 | |
| 00:19:45,330 --> 00:19:47,850 | |
| different tools يعني خليني أعطيكم مثلا ممكن | |
| 257 | |
| 00:19:47,850 --> 00:19:52,070 | |
| يستخدم شغلة اسمها VAR، VAR مش الـ variance مش هذه | |
| 258 | |
| 00:19:52,070 --> 00:19:59,490 | |
| VAR is stand for Value at Risk, VAR | |
| 259 | |
| 00:19:59,490 --> 00:20:03,150 | |
| is stand for هذه الـ VAR شايفينها؟ هيك تكتبوها | |
| 260 | |
| 00:20:03,150 --> 00:20:09,790 | |
| Value at Risk, I'm not asking you to know what it | |
| 261 | |
| 00:20:09,790 --> 00:20:14,310 | |
| means, Value at Risk, but it is a technique helping | |
| 262 | |
| 00:20:14,310 --> 00:20:19,810 | |
| the professionals to know exactly what is the | |
| 263 | |
| 00:20:19,810 --> 00:20:24,610 | |
| actual performance of the supplies and these | |
| 264 | |
| 00:20:24,610 --> 00:20:28,930 | |
| techniques، حتى لو أنا قلت لكم this is VAR and ask | |
| 265 | |
| 00:20:28,930 --> 00:20:31,630 | |
| you to do it, you cannot do it because it needs a | |
| 266 | |
| 00:20:31,630 --> 00:20:35,490 | |
| high knowledge تحتاج لـ high knowledge معرفة عالية | |
| 267 | |
| 00:20:35,490 --> 00:20:40,050 | |
| و تستخدم تقنيات عالية كتير بالـ .. بالـ .. بالـ high | |
| 268 | |
| 00:20:40,050 --> 00:20:45,430 | |
| knowledge، لو واحد ثاني عنده knowledge أكثر ممكن | |
| 269 | |
| 00:20:45,430 --> 00:20:50,330 | |
| يستخدم Intrinsic Values طريقة | |
| 270 | |
| 00:20:50,330 --> 00:20:54,150 | |
| اسمها find the Intrinsic Values، طريقة أخرى عشان | |
| 271 | |
| 00:20:54,150 --> 00:20:59,730 | |
| نعرف احنا بالظبط السعر يعني أعطيكم مثال لو احنا | |
| 272 | |
| 00:20:59,730 --> 00:21:08,210 | |
| حكينا لكم بدنا نشوف القمر في الليل from your naked | |
| 273 | |
| 00:21:08,210 --> 00:21:13,010 | |
| eye، بعينكم المجردة، fine بتشوفوا و قول لكم اقصدوا في | |
| 274 | |
| 00:21:13,010 --> 00:21:16,550 | |
| القرار و أوكي القمر شكله هيك هيك، قولنا أوكي خدوا | |
| 275 | |
| 00:21:16,550 --> 00:21:20,630 | |
| هذا التليسكوب، هذا التليسكوب بيقرب لأشياء عشرة أو | |
| 276 | |
| 00:21:20,630 --> 00:21:26,530 | |
| ستة عشر، أقل ستة، فضلوا هتشوفوا أشياء أكثر، if I give | |
| 277 | |
| 00:21:26,530 --> 00:21:31,090 | |
| you another one which is measured for ten power | |
| 278 | |
| 00:21:31,090 --> 00:21:36,150 | |
| twelve يعني عشر أقل ستة عشر، هتشوفوا أكثر، to see | |
| 279 | |
| 00:21:36,150 --> 00:21:38,710 | |
| more details which is not available to people with | |
| 280 | |
| 00:21:38,710 --> 00:21:43,060 | |
| naked eyes، يعني شغلات بس لو واحد بيشوف بالعِين المجردة | |
| 281 | |
| 00:21:43,060 --> 00:21:46,700 | |
| just .. just the moon، some people say inside | |
| 282 | |
| 00:21:46,700 --> 00:21:49,960 | |
| the moon بيشوفوا داخل القمر، the same .. the same | |
| 283 | |
| 00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:55,760 | |
| thing، if you are applying new techniques and tools | |
| 284 | |
| 00:21:55,760 --> 00:22:01,960 | |
| فهذه الفكرة أنه في .. | |
| 285 | |
| 00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:07,000 | |
| if I .. زي ما احنا شوفت الـ butter | |
| 286 | |
| 00:22:10,850 --> 00:22:15,310 | |
| Some people they try to find poorly run things | |
| 287 | |
| 00:22:15,310 --> 00:22:18,610 | |
| that are not as bad as the market thinks، بعض | |
| 288 | |
| 00:22:18,610 --> 00:22:27,430 | |
| الناس، الناس العاديين، بيعتقدوا أن هذا السهم وضعه | |
| 289 | |
| 00:22:27,430 --> 00:22:31,410 | |
| سيء، but if you have extra analysis or in-depth | |
| 290 | |
| 00:22:31,410 --> 00:22:34,210 | |
| analysis، you see this is not as bad as the others | |
| 291 | |
| 00:22:34,210 --> 00:22:40,490 | |
| think، يعني مش كتير سيء زي ما الناس بيعتقدوا، فالناس | |
| 292 | |
| 00:22:40,490 --> 00:22:42,930 | |
| اللي بيشتغلوا بالـ fundamental analysis they have | |
| 293 | |
| 00:22:42,930 --> 00:22:46,810 | |
| their own tools which is unique and is not | |
| 294 | |
| 00:22:46,810 --> 00:22:52,310 | |
| available to others، هي مميزة ومش هتكون متوفرة | |
| 295 | |
| 00:22:52,310 --> 00:22:56,410 | |
| للآخرين اللي يقدروا أن هم إيش يستخدموا هذه الـ | |
| 296 | |
| 00:22:56,410 --> 00:22:59,910 | |
| tools، فهي هتساعدهم أول شيء تشوفوا مين السهم المليح | |
| 297 | |
| 00:22:59,910 --> 00:23:04,470 | |
| وكمان مين السهم اللي السوق بيعتقد أنه سيء بس هو مش | |
| 298 | |
| 00:23:04,470 --> 00:23:06,350 | |
| سيء، okay | |
| 299 | |
| 00:23:10,790 --> 00:23:14,390 | |
| فهذه مهمة الـ .. الـ .. الـ fundamental analysis يعني | |
| 300 | |
| 00:23:14,390 --> 00:23:18,510 | |
| احنا بنشوف مثلا سهم يعني أعطيكم مثلا ناس بيعتقدوا | |
| 301 | |
| 00:23:18,510 --> 00:23:24,450 | |
| أن ياهو is one of the best stock or Google، ناس | |
| 302 | |
| 00:23:24,450 --> 00:23:27,410 | |
| بيفهموا ياهو و جوجل، but if you have in-depth | |
| 303 | |
| 00:23:27,410 --> 00:23:31,670 | |
| analysis، ياهو or جوجل is the best، آه not the best | |
| 304 | |
| 00:23:31,670 --> 00:23:36,600 | |
| if you have in-depth analysis، if you have just | |
| 305 | |
| 00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:40,820 | |
| shallow analysis، shallow يعني معناها سطحي، إذا | |
| 306 | |
| 00:23:40,820 --> 00:23:43,940 | |
| عندنا shallow analysis تحليل سطحي which is | |
| 307 | |
| 00:23:43,940 --> 00:23:47,660 | |
| available for other people، so you cannot come up | |
| 308 | |
| 00:23:47,660 --> 00:23:50,220 | |
| with new things، but if you have in-depth analysis | |
| 309 | |
| 00:23:50,220 --> 00:23:55,020 | |
| with advanced tools، so you can see what is inside | |
| 310 | |
| 00:23:55,020 --> 00:23:58,540 | |
| ممكن تعرف what is inside، okay | |
| 311 | |
| 00:24:03,810 --> 00:24:06,570 | |
| فالـ fundamental analysis is much related to the | |
| 312 | |
| 00:24:06,570 --> 00:24:08,670 | |
| semi-strong hypothesis and I explained what it | |
| 313 | |
| 00:24:08,670 --> 00:24:11,590 | |
| means، semi-strong analysis، so it is fine، you can | |
| 314 | |
| 00:24:11,590 --> 00:24:16,070 | |
| use it in the in the in the fundamental in the | |
| 315 | |
| 00:24:16,070 --> 00:24:20,510 | |
| semi-strong market based on this understanding | |
| 316 | |
| 00:24:20,510 --> 00:24:26,250 | |
| بناء على الكلام هذا، بناء على الـ technical analysis | |
| 317 | |
| 00:24:26,250 --> 00:24:28,570 | |
| و الـ fundamental analysis we have two different | |
| 318 | |
| 00:24:28,570 --> 00:24:33,320 | |
| types of portfolio managers، بناء على فهمنا التحليل | |
| 319 | |
| 00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:36,500 | |
| الفني technical analysis والتحليل الأساسي الـ | |
| 320 | |
| 00:24:36,500 --> 00:24:41,560 | |
| fundamental analysis بيكون عندي نوعين من الـ | |
| 321 | |
| 00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:45,000 | |
| investors، we have active managers و في عندنا | |
| 322 | |
| 00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:47,740 | |
| passive managers، عندنا الـ active و عندنا الـ | |
| 323 | |
| 00:24:47,740 --> 00:24:51,300 | |
| managers، طبعا في عندي أنا هاي الملفين كده لما أنا | |
| 324 | |
| 00:24:51,300 --> 00:24:56,740 | |
| انسى أو مش ملفين أكثر من ملفين، هذه الملفات زي ما | |
| 325 | |
| 00:24:56,740 --> 00:25:01,530 | |
| انتم شايفين، هذه بالعربي يعني ممكن in your free | |
| 326 | |
| 00:25:01,530 --> 00:25:05,530 | |
| time and when you finish this course، مش الـ exam | |
| 327 | |
| 00:25:05,530 --> 00:25:09,090 | |
| this course، you can get benefit from reading these | |
| 328 | |
| 00:25:09,090 --> 00:25:12,230 | |
| files، يعني هي عندكم files مثلا بالتحليل الأساسي | |
| 329 | |
| 00:25:12,230 --> 00:25:17,210 | |
| شايفين اللي هو الـ fundamental analysis والتحليل | |
| 330 | |
| 00:25:17,210 --> 00:25:19,330 | |
| الفني اللي هو technical analysis، يعني لو احنا | |
| 331 | |
| 00:25:19,330 --> 00:25:26,820 | |
| إجينا للتحليل الأساسي، هتلاقي كلّه إيش عبارة عن تحليل | |
| 332 | |
| 00:25:26,820 --> 00:25:33,800 | |
| اقتصادي و تحليل مالي، يعني خليني أنا أورجيكم فيه، هذا | |
| 333 | |
| 00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:39,900 | |
| يعني بالـ .. بالـ free time تبعكم، اتحاولوا يعني بعد | |
| 334 | |
| 00:25:39,900 --> 00:25:43,200 | |
| اللي ما تنهوا المحاضرات مش الانتحارات، والفصل و | |
| 335 | |
| 00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:44,280 | |
| كذا، آه | |
| 336 | |
| 00:25:47,610 --> 00:25:51,630 | |
| يعني شوفوا التحليل الأساسي كلّه يعني بيستخدموا | |
| 337 | |
| 00:25:51,630 --> 00:25:55,090 | |
| معادلات، يعني مثلا هان مكرر الأرباح اللي هو الـ P-E | |
| 338 | |
| 00:25:55,090 --> 00:25:58,790 | |
| ratio، الـ P-E ratio أنا أعطيتكم الـ P-E ratio قبل | |
| 339 | |
| 00:25:58,790 --> 00:26:05,010 | |
| ثلاثة .. يعني chapter two و chapter three فاكرين؟ لأ | |
| 340 | |
| 00:26:05,010 --> 00:26:07,510 | |
| تفرجوا الـ P-E ratio جاي في سؤال أنتم هان فيه على | |
| 341 | |
| 00:26:07,510 --> 00:26:13,290 | |
| فكرة الـ P-E ratio، الـ P-E ratio أخذناها لما كنا | |
| 342 | |
| 00:26:13,290 --> 00:26:18,370 | |
| نحاول نقرأ الـ stocks و الـ bonds، أكيد مش تعرفوا هذه | |
| 343 | |
| 00:26:18,370 --> 00:26:23,510 | |
| correct the answers، multiple choice و الصح و غلط و | |
| 344 | |
| 00:26:23,510 --> 00:26:26,590 | |
| أشياء مثلها، التحليل المالي مثلا شوفوا التحليل | |
| 345 | |
| 00:26:26,590 --> 00:26:30,310 | |
| المالي مهم بالـ .. بالـ fundamental analysis يعني | |
| 346 | |
| 00:26:30,310 --> 00:26:33,850 | |
| هذا إن شاء الله في الـ free time you can read this | |
| 347 | |
| 00:26:33,850 --> 00:26:37,410 | |
| خليني | |
| 348 | |
| 00:26:37,410 --> 00:26:41,310 | |
| بس أخلص الصفحة هذه، active or passive management | |
| 349 | |
| 00:26:41,310 --> 00:26:47,390 | |
| احنا حكينا المرة الفاتة في chapter two، the active | |
| 350 | |
| 00:26:47,390 --> 00:26:54,650 | |
| management think that the market is not efficient | |
| 351 | |
| 00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:59,240 | |
| and there is a lot of mispricing، so they depend on | |
| 352 | |
| 00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:02,960 | |
| the mispricing to correct the inefficiency، يعني هم | |
| 353 | |
| 00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:05,360 | |
| دورهم بيخلوا الـ market efficient، هو أصلا الـ market | |
| 354 | |
| 00:27:05,360 --> 00:27:10,160 | |
| مش efficient لكن the .. the contribution of the | |
| 355 | |
| 00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:12,740 | |
| active managements or the active managers make the | |
| 356 | |
| 00:27:12,740 --> 00:27:16,340 | |
| market efficient، يعني تدخلهم هو بيخلي، لأنه مش | |
| 357 | |
| 00:27:16,340 --> 00:27:21,420 | |
| ذاكر لما احنا حكينا the prices deviate from their | |
| 358 | |
| 00:27:21,420 --> 00:27:26,410 | |
| fundamental، بتقول احنا أخذنا الـ risk and return | |
| 359 | |
| 00:27:26,410 --> 00:27:30,970 | |
| وحكينا the prices should be on the security market | |
| 360 | |
| 00:27:30,970 --> 00:27:35,350 | |
| line، sometimes there is mispricing، so the role of | |
| 361 | |
| 00:27:35,350 --> 00:27:38,330 | |
| active management is to correct this and making | |
| 362 | |
| 00:27:38,330 --> 00:27:40,870 | |
| the price or making the stocks to be on the line | |
| 363 | |
| 00:27:40,870 --> 00:27:45,850 | |
| okay، هذا بيسموهم الـ active management، this is an | |
| 364 | |
| 00:27:45,850 --> 00:27:49,750 | |
| expensive strategy، هذي expensive strategy بتكلفهم | |
| 365 | |
| 00:27:49,750 --> 00:27:52,830 | |
| كتير، why? because they .. they want to collect a | |
| 366 | |
| 00:27:52,830 --> 00:27:57,330 | |
| fundamental information to know which is the | |
| 367 | |
| 00:27:57,330 --> 00:28:00,910 | |
| inefficient prices or which stock is inefficient | |
| 368 | |
| 00:28:00,910 --> 00:28:06,470 | |
| or which stock is mispriced، و أي سهم هو عليه | |
| 369 | |
| 00:28:06,470 --> 00:28:08,670 | |
| mispriced يعني مش مسعر بطريقة صحيحة | |
| 370 | |
| 00:28:11,650 --> 00:28:15,130 | |
| because they spend a lot of money on collecting | |
| 371 | |
| 00:28:15,130 --> 00:28:18,170 | |
| fundamental and private information، so it is not | |
| 372 | |
| 00:28:18,170 --> 00:28:21,830 | |
| suitable for the small investors، يعني مش كويسة على | |
| 373 | |
| 00:28:21,830 --> 00:28:24,150 | |
| small investors، يعني الواحد مستخدم اللي عنده one | |
| 374 | |
| 00:28:24,150 --> 00:28:27,100 | |
| hundred dollar، عنده مئة دولار أو ألف دولار يروح | |
| 375 | |
| 00:28:27,100 --> 00:28:30,040 | |
| يجمع معلومات و .. and it cost for him or for her | |
| 376 | |
| 00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:34,200 | |
| so it is not suitable for them مش كتير مناسبة لهم | |
| 377 | |
| 00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:37,620 | |
| هذه مناسبة لمين is suitable only for large | |
| 378 | |
| 00:28:37,620 --> 00:28:40,800 | |
| portfolios يعني لو واحد عنده محفظة خمس مليون ولا | |
| 379 | |
| 00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:45,800 | |
| ميت مليون دولار and invest one percent يعني لو صرف | |
| 380 | |
| 00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:49,800 | |
| ألف دولار ولا ميت ألف دولار it.. it deserves | |
| 381 | |
| 00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:53,870 | |
| تستحق لإيجمع معلومات ويعمل تحليل The passive | |
| 382 | |
| 00:28:53,870 --> 00:28:58,130 | |
| managers think the market is efficient يعني | |
| 383 | |
| 00:28:58,130 --> 00:29:00,790 | |
| بيعتقدوا أن the market is efficient all of the | |
| 384 | |
| 00:29:00,790 --> 00:29:05,610 | |
| stock is located on the security market line كل الأسهم | |
| 385 | |
| 00:29:05,610 --> 00:29:08,390 | |
| بتقع على خط السوق and the market is | |
| 386 | |
| 00:29:08,390 --> 00:29:13,510 | |
| efficient and because of this no attempt to | |
| 387 | |
| 00:29:13,510 --> 00:29:17,550 | |
| outsmart the market يعني ما تكونوش شاطرين كتير كأنه | |
| 388 | |
| 00:29:17,550 --> 00:29:20,590 | |
| الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ people believe on the passive | |
| 389 | |
| 00:29:20,590 --> 00:29:22,710 | |
| management بيعتقدوا أنه the market is efficient | |
| 390 | |
| 00:29:22,710 --> 00:29:25,950 | |
| they just only to invest on the stocks that | |
| 391 | |
| 00:29:25,950 --> 00:29:28,770 | |
| located in the .. in the market on the security | |
| 392 | |
| 00:29:28,770 --> 00:29:31,890 | |
| market line فحاولوا يوجدوا تنويعة موجودة على خط | |
| 393 | |
| 00:29:31,890 --> 00:29:37,550 | |
| السوق don't be outsmart ما تكونش تفهم كتير because | |
| 394 | |
| 00:29:37,550 --> 00:29:42,690 | |
| the market outsmart others يعني السوق أفهم وأشطر | |
| 395 | |
| 00:29:42,690 --> 00:29:48,040 | |
| من الناس كلها okay So they accept the efficient | |
| 396 | |
| 00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:53,020 | |
| market hypothesis AMH, they invest in the index | |
| 397 | |
| 00:29:53,020 --> 00:29:57,240 | |
| funds and I explain this because the index funds | |
| 398 | |
| 00:29:57,240 --> 00:30:00,620 | |
| اللي هو المؤشرات السوق because it includes only | |
| 399 | |
| 00:30:00,620 --> 00:30:05,160 | |
| the best stocks يعني المؤشرات اللي أسهم زي مؤشر | |
| 400 | |
| 00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:09,620 | |
| Dow Jones وNasdaq وNikkei ومؤشر New York Stock | |
| 401 | |
| 00:30:09,620 --> 00:30:15,080 | |
| Exchange ومؤشر FTSE 100 وهذا شلحته أظن بشتر two أو | |
| 402 | |
| 00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:19,850 | |
| three and one of the characteristics is very low | |
| 403 | |
| 00:30:19,850 --> 00:30:23,070 | |
| cost you don't need to collect information بس | |
| 404 | |
| 00:30:23,070 --> 00:30:26,970 | |
| أنتوا خدوا الأسهم لإنه دايما في كل يوم افتحوا | |
| 405 | |
| 00:30:26,970 --> 00:30:30,370 | |
| الناشرة الاقتصادية أو شيء فبحكوكوا the best one | |
| 406 | |
| 00:30:30,370 --> 00:30:34,990 | |
| hundred companies أفضل مئة شركة خلاص so you don't | |
| 407 | |
| 00:30:34,990 --> 00:30:38,950 | |
| need to look for who is the best because the best | |
| 408 | |
| 00:30:38,950 --> 00:30:42,610 | |
| is already known so just channel your fund to the | |
| 409 | |
| 00:30:42,610 --> 00:30:47,680 | |
| best okay So this is the active and passive | |
| 410 | |
| 00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:48,040 | |
| management | |