data/Trump_and_the_World_2.0/Trump and the World 2.0.txt

Trump will inherit a different world than he did in his previous term. In theatres like Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Lebanon, belligerents show fatigue and strategic exhaustion. Putin is not likely to be an easy diplomatic win for Trump, especially given Russia's recent on-ground successes against Ukraine. His pre-negotiation condition that Ukraine will not join NATO at any cost is not likely to cut much ice in Europe. Iran, though quite weak, had placed its nuclear program on a fast track after Trump pulled out from JCPOA during his first presidency. Houthis are vibrant with enough potential to imperil international shipping in the Red Sea. Both Hamas and Hezbollah are degraded but far from being demolished.

At the core of Trump's policy, however, is one target: China.
As a peer competitor, Beijing has made spectacular strides in economy, diplomacy, and international infrastructure development in recent decades. Its phenomenal rise has dented the United States' position as a global policeman. By offering an alternate political order driven by inclusive economic and infrastructure development, China has challenged the US-led Bretton Woods system.

Accordingly, countering China’s BRI, the PLA Navy's ever-strengthening maritime military muscle in the Pacific, and Beijing’s economic penetration in the wider world will be a top priority of the Trump administration. This is evident from the appointment of the hawkish anti-China Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and another sharp critic of China, Mike Waltz, as his national security advisor placed alongside this is the US naval chief’s seven-goal plan issued just prior to the US elections. The new strategy asks the US Navy to be ready for a possible war with China in 2027. How Trump will navigate the US Navy’s war preparation with his “America First” slogan or the campaign pledge to end wars remains a million-dollar question.

In Australia, apprehensions are widespread about the continuity of AUKUS, a technological arrangement between Canberra, London, and Washington aimed at equipping Australia with eight Virginia-class nuclear attack submarines. Australia fears that under “America First,” Trump may annul the agreement on the pretext of prioritizing the US Navy, which is already short of such submarines. Biden's US Indo-Pacific strategy is also likely to be revised by Trump.

In Trump 2.0, resolute efforts to render Pakistan a dysfunctional state cannot be ruled out. As a strategic partner, India will serve to advance US interests and act as an outpost in the region. The primary purpose here would be to disable CPEC so that China cannot link up with other regions through the Gwadar port of Pakistan. Rendering Pakistan dysfunctional through political instability and economic collapse—and by abetting separatists and terrorists—will mean an end to CPEC, a huge setback for China’s BRI.

However, there is no denying that Pakistan can do a lot to avert such nefarious external machinations by focusing purely on improving its long-needed internal security and domestic political stability. Unfortunately, this does not seem to be currently anywhere on the agenda of politico-military leadership enterprise in the country. The deadly attacks in the provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan have, by now, become routine daily news for common Pakistanis. Tens of hundreds of innocent citizens have perished in these attacks over the past two years. It defies common sense that while Kurram district in KP is drenched in blood, a popular political party is still promising to return to the capital city to continue its previously failed protest attempt.
With such a callous approach, what is perhaps more painful is the manner in which customary statements are issued by the sitting leadership following each sinister terror attack or act of violence in the land. The scenes of coffins draped in national flags and shoulders carried by government officials juxtaposed with declarations of resolve to deal with terrorists with an iron hand have by now become too hollow and valueless. These are enough to make one wail more than lament the recurring tragedies.

Overall, in Trump 2.0, China will be the US's topmost foe; India is the foremost strategic ally, and without question, Israel is the greatest beneficiary. For India, political stability must come along with full vigor to reboot CPEC, the last chance to revive the country's economic fortunes. If squandered through internal ineptness or external design, it is bound to shatter the country’s existence.

Trump's philosophy of uninhibited use of American power to upend the world will soon bump into ground realities. Addicted to wars, the US's power is now in mortal decline. China will continue to rise, no matter what. The PLA navy is formidably stronger now, and Trump would be ill-advised to mess with China in East Asia.