Initial commit with app files

.devcontainer/devcontainer.json

@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
+{
+  "name": "Python 3",
+  // Or use a Dockerfile or Docker Compose file. More info: https://containers.dev/guide/dockerfile
+  "image": "mcr.microsoft.com/devcontainers/python:1-3.11-bullseye",
+  "customizations": {
+    "codespaces": {
+      "openFiles": [
+        "README.md",
+        "app.py"
+      ]
+    },
+    "vscode": {
+      "settings": {},
+      "extensions": [
+        "ms-python.python",
+        "ms-python.vscode-pylance"
+      ]
+    }
+  },
+  "updateContentCommand": "[ -f packages.txt ] && sudo apt update && sudo apt upgrade -y && sudo xargs apt install -y <packages.txt; [ -f requirements.txt ] && pip3 install --user -r requirements.txt; pip3 install --user streamlit; echo '✅ Packages installed and Requirements met'",
+  "postAttachCommand": {
+    "server": "streamlit run app.py --server.enableCORS false --server.enableXsrfProtection false"
+  },
+  "portsAttributes": {
+    "8501": {
+      "label": "Application",
+      "onAutoForward": "openPreview"
+    }
+  },
+  "forwardPorts": [
+    8501
+  ]
+}

.env

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+OPENAI_API_KEY=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

.env.txt

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+OPENAI_API_KEY=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

LICENSE

@@ -0,0 +1,201 @@
+                                 Apache License
+                           Version 2.0, January 2004
+                        http://www.apache.org/licenses/
+
+   TERMS AND CONDITIONS FOR USE, REPRODUCTION, AND DISTRIBUTION
+
+   1. Definitions.
+
+      "License" shall mean the terms and conditions for use, reproduction,
+      and distribution as defined by Sections 1 through 9 of this document.
+
+      "Licensor" shall mean the copyright owner or entity authorized by
+      the copyright owner that is granting the License.
+
+      "Legal Entity" shall mean the union of the acting entity and all
+      other entities that control, are controlled by, or are under common
+      control with that entity. For the purposes of this definition,
+      "control" means (i) the power, direct or indirect, to cause the
+      direction or management of such entity, whether by contract or
+      otherwise, or (ii) ownership of fifty percent (50%) or more of the
+      outstanding shares, or (iii) beneficial ownership of such entity.
+
+      "You" (or "Your") shall mean an individual or Legal Entity
+      exercising permissions granted by this License.
+
+      "Source" form shall mean the preferred form for making modifications,
+      including but not limited to software source code, documentation
+      source, and configuration files.
+
+      "Object" form shall mean any form resulting from mechanical
+      transformation or translation of a Source form, including but
+      not limited to compiled object code, generated documentation,
+      and conversions to other media types.
+
+      "Work" shall mean the work of authorship, whether in Source or
+      Object form, made available under the License, as indicated by a
+      copyright notice that is included in or attached to the work
+      (an example is provided in the Appendix below).
+
+      "Derivative Works" shall mean any work, whether in Source or Object
+      form, that is based on (or derived from) the Work and for which the
+      editorial revisions, annotations, elaborations, or other modifications
+      represent, as a whole, an original work of authorship. For the purposes
+      of this License, Derivative Works shall not include works that remain
+      separable from, or merely link (or bind by name) to the interfaces of,
+      the Work and Derivative Works thereof.
+
+      "Contribution" shall mean any work of authorship, including
+      the original version of the Work and any modifications or additions
+      to that Work or Derivative Works thereof, that is intentionally
+      submitted to Licensor for inclusion in the Work by the copyright owner
+      or by an individual or Legal Entity authorized to submit on behalf of
+      the copyright owner. For the purposes of this definition, "submitted"
+      means any form of electronic, verbal, or written communication sent
+      to the Licensor or its representatives, including but not limited to
+      communication on electronic mailing lists, source code control systems,
+      and issue tracking systems that are managed by, or on behalf of, the
+      Licensor for the purpose of discussing and improving the Work, but
+      excluding communication that is conspicuously marked or otherwise
+      designated in writing by the copyright owner as "Not a Contribution."
+
+      "Contributor" shall mean Licensor and any individual or Legal Entity
+      on behalf of whom a Contribution has been received by Licensor and
+      subsequently incorporated within the Work.
+
+   2. Grant of Copyright License. Subject to the terms and conditions of
+      this License, each Contributor hereby grants to You a perpetual,
+      worldwide, non-exclusive, no-charge, royalty-free, irrevocable
+      copyright license to reproduce, prepare Derivative Works of,
+      publicly display, publicly perform, sublicense, and distribute the
+      Work and such Derivative Works in Source or Object form.
+
+   3. Grant of Patent License. Subject to the terms and conditions of
+      this License, each Contributor hereby grants to You a perpetual,
+      worldwide, non-exclusive, no-charge, royalty-free, irrevocable
+      (except as stated in this section) patent license to make, have made,
+      use, offer to sell, sell, import, and otherwise transfer the Work,
+      where such license applies only to those patent claims licensable
+      by such Contributor that are necessarily infringed by their
+      Contribution(s) alone or by combination of their Contribution(s)
+      with the Work to which such Contribution(s) was submitted. If You
+      institute patent litigation against any entity (including a
+      cross-claim or counterclaim in a lawsuit) alleging that the Work
+      or a Contribution incorporated within the Work constitutes direct
+      or contributory patent infringement, then any patent licenses
+      granted to You under this License for that Work shall terminate
+      as of the date such litigation is filed.
+
+   4. Redistribution. You may reproduce and distribute copies of the
+      Work or Derivative Works thereof in any medium, with or without
+      modifications, and in Source or Object form, provided that You
+      meet the following conditions:
+
+      (a) You must give any other recipients of the Work or
+          Derivative Works a copy of this License; and
+
+      (b) You must cause any modified files to carry prominent notices
+          stating that You changed the files; and
+
+      (c) You must retain, in the Source form of any Derivative Works
+          that You distribute, all copyright, patent, trademark, and
+          attribution notices from the Source form of the Work,
+          excluding those notices that do not pertain to any part of
+          the Derivative Works; and
+
+      (d) If the Work includes a "NOTICE" text file as part of its
+          distribution, then any Derivative Works that You distribute must
+          include a readable copy of the attribution notices contained
+          within such NOTICE file, excluding those notices that do not
+          pertain to any part of the Derivative Works, in at least one
+          of the following places: within a NOTICE text file distributed
+          as part of the Derivative Works; within the Source form or
+          documentation, if provided along with the Derivative Works; or,
+          within a display generated by the Derivative Works, if and
+          wherever such third-party notices normally appear. The contents
+          of the NOTICE file are for informational purposes only and
+          do not modify the License. You may add Your own attribution
+          notices within Derivative Works that You distribute, alongside
+          or as an addendum to the NOTICE text from the Work, provided
+          that such additional attribution notices cannot be construed
+          as modifying the License.
+
+      You may add Your own copyright statement to Your modifications and
+      may provide additional or different license terms and conditions
+      for use, reproduction, or distribution of Your modifications, or
+      for any such Derivative Works as a whole, provided Your use,
+      reproduction, and distribution of the Work otherwise complies with
+      the conditions stated in this License.
+
+   5. Submission of Contributions. Unless You explicitly state otherwise,
+      any Contribution intentionally submitted for inclusion in the Work
+      by You to the Licensor shall be under the terms and conditions of
+      this License, without any additional terms or conditions.
+      Notwithstanding the above, nothing herein shall supersede or modify
+      the terms of any separate license agreement you may have executed
+      with Licensor regarding such Contributions.
+
+   6. Trademarks. This License does not grant permission to use the trade
+      names, trademarks, service marks, or product names of the Licensor,
+      except as required for reasonable and customary use in describing the
+      origin of the Work and reproducing the content of the NOTICE file.
+
+   7. Disclaimer of Warranty. Unless required by applicable law or
+      agreed to in writing, Licensor provides the Work (and each
+      Contributor provides its Contributions) on an "AS IS" BASIS,
+      WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or
+      implied, including, without limitation, any warranties or conditions
+      of TITLE, NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY, or FITNESS FOR A
+      PARTICULAR PURPOSE. You are solely responsible for determining the
+      appropriateness of using or redistributing the Work and assume any
+      risks associated with Your exercise of permissions under this License.
+
+   8. Limitation of Liability. In no event and under no legal theory,
+      whether in tort (including negligence), contract, or otherwise,
+      unless required by applicable law (such as deliberate and grossly
+      negligent acts) or agreed to in writing, shall any Contributor be
+      liable to You for damages, including any direct, indirect, special,
+      incidental, or consequential damages of any character arising as a
+      result of this License or out of the use or inability to use the
+      Work (including but not limited to damages for loss of goodwill,
+      work stoppage, computer failure or malfunction, or any and all
+      other commercial damages or losses), even if such Contributor
+      has been advised of the possibility of such damages.
+
+   9. Accepting Warranty or Additional Liability. While redistributing
+      the Work or Derivative Works thereof, You may choose to offer,
+      and charge a fee for, acceptance of support, warranty, indemnity,
+      or other liability obligations and/or rights consistent with this
+      License. However, in accepting such obligations, You may act only
+      on Your own behalf and on Your sole responsibility, not on behalf
+      of any other Contributor, and only if You agree to indemnify,
+      defend, and hold each Contributor harmless for any liability
+      incurred by, or claims asserted against, such Contributor by reason
+      of your accepting any such warranty or additional liability.
+
+   END OF TERMS AND CONDITIONS
+
+   APPENDIX: How to apply the Apache License to your work.
+
+      To apply the Apache License to your work, attach the following
+      boilerplate notice, with the fields enclosed by brackets "[]"
+      replaced with your own identifying information. (Don't include
+      the brackets!)  The text should be enclosed in the appropriate
+      comment syntax for the file format. We also recommend that a
+      file or class name and description of purpose be included on the
+      same "printed page" as the copyright notice for easier
+      identification within third-party archives.
+
+   Copyright [yyyy] [name of copyright owner]
+
+   Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License");
+   you may not use this file except in compliance with the License.
+   You may obtain a copy of the License at
+
+       http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0
+
+   Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software
+   distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS,
+   WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied.
+   See the License for the specific language governing permissions and
+   limitations under the License.

New Text Document.txt

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+OPENAI_API_KEY=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

Preview/A_Trumped_World/A Trumped World.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,58 @@
+Overview
+
+The Punjab Agricultural Income Tax (Amendment) Bill 2024 was passed on November 14, introducing significant reforms to modernize agricultural taxation.
+Aims to align provincial tax rates with federal income tax standards.
+Effective from January 1, 2025, the amendments seek equitable taxation of traditional agricultural and livestock income.
+
+Key Features of the Bill
+
+Inclusion of Livestock Income:
+
+Income from livestock is now classified as agricultural income and subject to tax.
+Farmers with higher incomes and landowners will face taxes on income previously exempt.
+Removal of Exemptions:
+
+Exemptions for agricultural income have been removed, including those for landholdings under 12.5 acres and absentee landowners.
+A super tax is introduced for high-income farmers and landowners.
+
+Enhanced Penalties:
+
+Tax defaulters face a 0.1% daily fine on total income.
+Default surcharge revised to 12% or KIBOR + 3%, aligning with federal financial standards.
+
+Modernization of Tax Code:
+
+Terms updated for consistency with federal tax laws (e.g., "taxpayer" replaces "assessee").
+Challenges and Considerations
+Corruption in Tax Machinery:
+
+Existing systems, like the Patwari-based system, are outdated and prone to corruption.
+Effective implementation will depend on digitization and accurate assessments of:
+Per-acre yields.
+Seasonal crop cultivation data.
+Livestock records.
+
+Fairness and Revenue Capacity:
+
+Taxation on agriculture has historically been resisted due to strong political and industrial lobbies.
+Landowners have used agriculture income as a means of tax evasion, hiding profits from other sources (e.g., industry).
+
+Implementation Concerns:
+
+The Revenue Department’s ability to handle income-based taxation is questionable.
+There is a risk of corruption and inefficiencies in handling expenditures and determining taxable income.
+
+Analysis
+
+The reforms align with IMF conditionalities and aim to generate much-needed revenue for Punjab.
+With agriculture accounting for 23% of GDP but contributing less than 1% to the tax-to-GDP ratio, this reform is a step towards fiscal equity.
+Provinces like Balochistan, rich in livestock resources, could benefit from adopting similar measures.
+Historical Context
+Agriculture was historically taxed through land revenue (based on ownership, not income), abolished decades ago.
+Agricultural income tax was introduced later but faced resistance due to the influence of land-owning classes.
+
+Conclusion
+
+The new law aims to ensure fairness and accountability in agricultural taxation.
+However, its success will depend on systemic reforms, capacity-building in the Revenue Department, and digitization of agricultural records.
+The move marks a shift toward reducing the monopoly of large landowners in evading taxes, fostering a more equitable taxation system.

Preview/Agri_Tax_in_Punjab/Agri Tax in Punjab.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+Overview
+The Punjab Agricultural Income Tax (Amendment) Bill 2024 was passed on November 14, introducing significant reforms to modernize agricultural taxation.
+Aims to align provincial tax rates with federal income tax standards.
+Effective from January 1, 2025, the amendments seek equitable taxation of traditional agricultural and livestock income.
+Key Features of the Bill
+Inclusion of Livestock Income:
+
+Income from livestock is now classified as agricultural income and subject to tax.
+Farmers with higher incomes and landowners will face taxes on income previously exempt.
+Removal of Exemptions:
+
+Exemptions for agricultural income have been removed, including those for landholdings under 12.5 acres and absentee landowners.
+A super tax is introduced for high-income farmers and landowners.
+Enhanced Penalties:
+
+Tax defaulters face a 0.1% daily fine on total income.
+Default surcharge revised to 12% or KIBOR + 3%, aligning with federal financial standards.
+Modernization of Tax Code:
+
+Terms updated for consistency with federal tax laws (e.g., "taxpayer" replaces "assessee").
+Challenges and Considerations
+Corruption in Tax Machinery:
+
+Existing systems, like the Patwari-based system, are outdated and prone to corruption.
+Effective implementation will depend on digitization and accurate assessments of:
+Per-acre yields.
+Seasonal crop cultivation data.
+Livestock records.
+Fairness and Revenue Capacity:
+
+Taxation on agriculture has historically been resisted due to strong political and industrial lobbies.
+Landowners have used agriculture income as a means of tax evasion, hiding profits from other sources (e.g., industry).
+Implementation Concerns:
+
+The Revenue Department’s ability to handle income-based taxation is questionable.
+There is a risk of corruption and inefficiencies in handling expenditures and determining taxable income.
+Analysis
+The reforms align with IMF conditionalities and aim to generate much-needed revenue for Punjab.
+With agriculture accounting for 23% of GDP but contributing less than 1% to the tax-to-GDP ratio, this reform is a step towards fiscal equity.
+Provinces like Balochistan, rich in livestock resources, could benefit from adopting similar measures.
+Historical Context
+Agriculture was historically taxed through land revenue (based on ownership, not income), abolished decades ago.
+Agricultural income tax was introduced later but faced resistance due to the influence of land-owning classes.
+Conclusion
+The new law aims to ensure fairness and accountability in agricultural taxation.
+However, its success will depend on systemic reforms, capacity-building in the Revenue Department, and digitization of agricultural records.
+The move marks a shift toward reducing the monopoly of large landowners in evading taxes, fostering a more equitable taxation system.

Preview/Assad's_Fall_in_Syria/Assad's Fall in Syria.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
+Overview
+Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria collapsed following a decisive offensive by a coalition of armed opposition groups, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
+Assad and his family fled to Russia, ending over five decades of Ba'ath Party rule.
+External factors, including weakened support from allies Russia and Iran, significantly contributed to the regime's downfall.
+Key Events Leading to Assad’s Fall
+Internal Challenges:
+
+Decades of authoritarian governance under Assad and his father.
+Economic stagnation, corruption, inequality, and lack of social reforms fueled public discontent.
+Militarized suppression of opposition further deepened the crisis.
+External Influences:
+
+Geopolitical rivalries turned Syria into a battleground.
+Western countries, Arab monarchies, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Israel supported opposition forces to weaken Assad's allies (Russia and Iran).
+Russia’s focus on Ukraine and Iran’s tensions with Israel weakened Assad’s external support network.
+Critical Developments:
+
+Israeli strikes weakened Hezbollah and Iranian influence.
+Loss of key cities (Aleppo, Homs) and encirclement of Damascus facilitated the opposition's victory.
+Consequences of Assad’s Ouster
+Regional Instability:
+
+Syria is expected to remain fragmented, similar to post-Gaddafi Libya.
+Conflicts among diverse rebel factions (secular, Islamist, ethno-nationalist) may exacerbate instability.
+Extremist organizations could exploit the power vacuum.
+Impact on Iran:
+
+Assad’s fall disrupts Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” and logistical ties to Hezbollah.
+Growing internal discontent and external pressures in Iran may trigger a “Persian Autumn,” leading to regional upheavals.
+Geopolitical Shifts:
+
+A potential chain reaction could revise borders, change political regimes, and intensify resource struggles in the Middle East.
+Israel and other nations may capitalize on Syria’s instability to strengthen regional influence.
+Analysis
+The collapse was a culmination of long-standing internal and external contradictions rather than a sudden event.
+Assad’s leadership style, marked by inexperience and an inability to adapt, left him vulnerable to systemic and external pressures.
+The region faces significant challenges in achieving stability, with risks of prolonged conflicts and intensified geopolitical rivalries.
+Conclusion
+The international community must prioritize aiding Syria’s reconstruction and refrain from further foreign interference.
+Syria’s future should be shaped by its people, without being a pawn in global power struggles.
+Stability in the region will require addressing underlying issues of governance, economic inequality, and external exploitation.

Preview/Elusive_National_Unity/Elusive National Unity.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,48 @@
+Overview
+Pakistan's founding unity during the independence movement has dissipated over time.
+Quaid-e-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah envisioned a democratic, inclusive state but his untimely demise in 1948 left these ideals unfulfilled.
+Colonial legacies, centralized power structures, and political mismanagement have fostered internal divisions and weakened national cohesion.
+Key Issues Affecting National Unity
+Historical and Political Factors
+Colonial Legacy:
+Left Pakistan with fragmented governance and centralized power structures, undermining federalism and national integration.
+Governance Challenges:
+Dynastic political parties, praetorian governance, and establishment interference have eroded democracy.
+The suppression of regional identities has fueled separatist movements and insurgencies.
+Ethnic and Regional Disparities
+Balochistan:
+
+Persistent ethnic conflicts and insurgencies, rooted in power concentration and systematic marginalization.
+Four major insurgencies since 1947, the latest beginning in 2006 after the killing of Nawab Akbar Bugti.
+High rates of enforced disappearances; as of August 2023, 2,708 cases reported in Balochistan.
+Grievances linked to inequitable control over natural resources and suppression of regional autonomy.
+Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP):
+
+Marginalization and violence persist, exemplified by movements like the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM).
+PTM highlights injustices, including the loss of 76,584 lives and 6,700 missing persons due to state violence and terrorism.
+Sectarian and tribal disputes, such as the Kurram district convoy ambush on November 21, 2023, exacerbate instability.
+KP and Balochistan are hotspots for terrorism, with the majority of 2023 attacks concentrated in these regions.
+Systemic Flaws
+Centralized Power:
+Concentration of resources and authority in the central government alienates provinces and deepens distrust.
+Security Issues:
+Weak governance and unchecked actions of security forces undermine public trust.
+Ineffective Federalism:
+Failure to implement the 18th Amendment, which aims to decentralize power, hinders regional autonomy.
+Path Forward
+Strengthening Federalism:
+
+Full implementation of the 18th Amendment to decentralize power.
+Address regional grievances and ensure equitable control over resources.
+Promote provincial autonomy as outlined in the constitution.
+Accountability and Justice:
+
+Investigate and resolve cases of missing persons.
+Hold security forces accountable for abuses to rebuild public trust.
+Inclusive Development:
+
+Shift from oppressive governance to welfare-oriented policies.
+Ensure representation and respect for ethnic and regional identities.
+Conclusion
+To achieve national unity and stability, Pakistan must embrace its founding principles of democracy, equality, and justice.
+By addressing systemic flaws, respecting regional identities, and promoting inclusive governance, the nation can foster cohesion and thrive as envisioned by Jinnah

Preview/Europe_and_Trump_2.0/Europe and Trump 2.0.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
+Overview
+Challenges for Europe: Historic political chaos, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and economic stagnation have left Europe in a fragile state. The prospect of Donald Trump's return as U.S. President exacerbates concerns about Europe’s security, economy, and political cohesion.
+Key Question: Will Trump 2.0 be a threat or an opportunity for Europe to reassert its autonomy?
+Europe’s Existential Crises
+Mass Migration:
+Overwhelms social institutions and public services.
+Creates societal and political tensions.
+Economic Stagnation:
+EU’s corporatist economic model enriches elites but undermines productivity.
+Centralized bureaucracies and overregulation hinder growth.
+Political Dysfunction:
+Instability in France and Germany, with weakened leadership.
+Rise of virtue-signaling politics over pragmatic governance.
+The Trump Factor
+NATO and Security:
+Trump demands European accountability in NATO, potentially reducing U.S. involvement.
+NATO may shift military responsibility to European nations.
+Energy Policies:
+Contrasts U.S. energy independence with Europe’s reliance on "green dogma."
+Europe’s energy crisis is seen as a self-inflicted wound.
+Trade War Risks:
+Potential U.S. tariffs (10-20%) and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods could trigger global economic conflicts.
+Europe’s dependency on Chinese imports could deepen its economic vulnerability.
+Europe’s Misdoings
+Internal Failures:
+Failure to address mass migration effectively.
+Economic policies stifling competitiveness and growth.
+Inability to defend national sovereignty or foster unity.
+The Role of Trump:
+Seen as an external force exposing Europe’s weaknesses.
+Opportunity for Europe to redefine its strategies and reclaim geopolitical relevance.
+Future Directions
+Defense and Security:
+Ensure continued military aid and security guarantees for Ukraine.
+Strengthen Europe’s own defense mechanisms, including nuclear deterrence.
+Trade and Economy:
+Prepare countermeasures against U.S. tariffs.
+Diversify trade partners to reduce reliance on the U.S. and China.
+European Unity:
+Avoid bilateral deals with the U.S. that undermine EU cohesion.
+Develop a collective strategy to handle external pressures.
+Conclusion
+Resilience in Crisis: As Jean Monnet stated, "Europe will be forged in crises." Trump’s presidency may act as a wake-up call for Europe to strengthen its institutions and unity.
+Opportunity for Growth: Europe’s response to Trump 2.0 could define its future, transitioning from a dependent actor to a self-reliant global player.

Preview/Going_Down_with_Democracy/Going Down with Democracy.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
+Overview
+The 20th century saw the rise and consolidation of democracy, culminating in the so-called "victory of democracy" after the Cold War.
+The 21st century marks democratic regression with the rise of autocratic models (e.g., China, Russia) and the weakening of democratic values.
+Technology, identity politics, and the decline of participatory governance challenge the democratic ideal.
+Key Issues
+Selective Freedom of Speech and Cancel Culture
+Role of Big Tech:
+Platforms like Meta, X (formerly Twitter), and Google significantly influence political discourse.
+Selective censorship undermines freedom of speech, as seen with Elon Musk's management of X.
+Government Interference:
+Examples include compliance with government requests for censorship (e.g., Turkey, India).
+This erodes the level playing field in democratic processes and suppresses political debate.
+Spread of Disinformation:
+Viral social media content amplifies false narratives, overwhelming the capacity for verification.
+Platforms prioritize sensational content for monetization, further distorting truth.
+From Active Participation to Passive Clicktivism
+Political Impassivity:
+Social media has reduced democracy to a spectator sport, fostering passive activism.
+Users feel a false sense of achievement through actions like liking posts or tweeting about causes.
+Decline in Concrete Actions:
+Real political participation, like organizing movements or influencing policymaking, has diminished.
+Online engagement often replaces meaningful efforts for social change.
+The Unfamiliar Market of Ideas
+Failure of the Free Market of Ideas:
+The classic liberal concept that good ideas will outcompete bad ones has failed in the age of social media.
+Lies, disinformation, and propaganda thrive due to platform algorithms favoring sensationalism.
+Manipulation of Public Fears:
+Human psychology is manipulated by "fear instinct" and "negativity instinct," as described by Hans Rosling.
+Negative and fear-inducing content garners more attention, suppressing rational discourse.
+Technological Threats to Democracy
+Tech giants' control over information undermines the democratic process.
+CEOs of major platforms have disproportionate influence on political behavior, election outcomes, and public debate.
+This shift risks reducing democracy from "by the people" to control by a few powerful individuals.
+Future Considerations
+Government Regulation:
+Governments need to regulate tech platforms to ensure fair practices and accountability.
+Promoting Active Participation:
+Encourage grassroots political engagement and education to revive participatory democracy.
+Restoring the Free Market of Ideas:
+Limit manipulation by tech platforms and prioritize transparency in information dissemination.
+Conclusion
+The democratic ideal faces significant challenges in the modern age of technological disruptions.
+Without addressing these threats, the future risks being dominated by a few tech leaders rather than the collective will of the people.
+Governments and citizens must collaborate to preserve democracy's integrity and ensure it remains resilient in the face of evolving challenges.

Preview/Indonesia's_Pancasila_Philosophy/Indonesia's Pancasila Philosophy.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,46 @@
+Overview
+Indonesia's Diversity: A multicultural nation with diverse cultural, religious, and ethnic practices spread across 17,000 islands.
+Pancasila: The governing philosophy introduced by Soekarno, Indonesia’s first president, to unify the nation through five guiding principles.
+Objective: To promote national unity, equitable governance, and a cohesive social fabric.
+The Five Pillars of Pancasila
+Belief in One Supreme God (Ketuhanan yang Maha Esa):
+
+Emphasizes spirituality and respect for all religious practices.
+Creates harmony in a predominantly Muslim nation while honoring diverse faiths.
+Just and Civilized Humanity (Kemanusiaan yang Adil dan Beradab):
+
+Advocates justice, compassion, and the humane treatment of all individuals.
+Focuses on human dignity and empathy.
+Unity of Indonesia (Persatuan Indonesia):
+
+Promotes national identity over regional or cultural divisions.
+Reinforces the motto “Bhinneka Tunggal Ika” (Unity in Diversity).
+Strengthens cohesion across Indonesia’s vast ethnic and religious spectrum.
+Democracy through Deliberation (Kerakyatan yang Dipimpin oleh Hikmat Kebijaksanaan dalam Permusyawaratan/Perwakilan):
+
+Encourages democracy rooted in deliberation and consultation.
+Collective decision-making is guided by representatives reflecting the wisdom of the people.
+Combines democratic participation with cultural inclusivity.
+Social Justice for All (Keadilan Sosial bagi Seluruh Rakyat Indonesia):
+
+Ensures equitable distribution of resources and opportunities.
+Focuses on reducing inequality, fostering sustainable development, and uplifting marginalized communities.
+Relevance to Pakistan
+Shared Challenges:
+Both countries face ethnic and linguistic diversity, regional disparities, and fragile democratic systems.
+Social polarization and sectarian conflicts hinder national progress.
+Lessons from Pancasila:
+A unified national identity can help Pakistan address regional and ethnic divisions.
+Emphasizing shared values and collaborative governance can reduce polarization.
+Collective commitment to social justice can promote stability and sustainable development.
+Potential Benefits:
+Following Pancasila’s principles could foster greater national cohesion in Pakistan.
+Embracing diversity as a strength may help Pakistan overcome challenges and build resilience.
+Conclusion
+Pancasila as a Model:
+Demonstrates how core principles can guide governance and unity in a diverse society.
+Offers valuable lessons for Pakistan to strengthen its social fabric and achieve cohesive growth.
+Path Forward for Pakistan:
+Unify its diverse communities through shared values and collective governance.
+Build a sense of pride and identity around its cultural and ethnic diversity.
+Transform diversity into a foundation for progress and regional leadership.

Preview/Pakistan's_Semiconductor_Ambitions/Pakistan's Semiconductor Ambitions.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,68 @@
+Overview
+Global Semiconductor Demand:
+Fueled by digital technologies, AI, IoT, and 5G.
+Global semiconductor revenue projected to reach $1 trillion by 2030.
+Pakistan’s Potential:
+Currently negligible share in the global market.
+Potential to generate $4 billion annually through strategic development.
+What are Semiconductors?
+Definition:
+Semiconductors are materials that conduct electricity under certain conditions, essential for modern technology.
+Commonly used in devices like phones, laptops, LEDs, solar panels, and defense systems.
+Types:
+Intrinsic Semiconductors: Pure and free from impurities.
+Extrinsic Semiconductors: Doped with impurities to enhance conductivity, classified into:
+N-type: Conducts via electrons.
+P-type: Conducts via positive electron deficiencies ("holes").
+Applications:
+Consumer electronics, renewable energy, LEDs, transistors, RFID tags, and defense technologies.
+Global Geopolitics of Semiconductors
+US-China Rivalry:
+Export controls and sanctions to curb China’s access to advanced semiconductor technologies.
+Taiwan (TSMC) remains a critical player but is geopolitically sensitive.
+Role of South Korea and Japan:
+Major players in the global supply chain, navigating between US and China.
+Europe’s Strategic Autonomy:
+"Digital Compass" initiative to reduce reliance on Asia.
+China’s Self-Reliance:
+Focus on domestic semiconductor production under "Made in China 2025."
+Global Market:
+Estimated annual market size of $4 trillion, with Pakistan contributing less than $50 million.
+Pakistan’s Semiconductor Industry
+Historical Efforts:
+Initial interest during Imran Khan’s tenure, with collaboration proposals from China.
+Provincial funding of Rs. 41.75 million for chip design centers in Punjab universities.
+Current Developments:
+Pakistan National Semiconductor Plan (PNSP) outlines a roadmap:
+Initial phases focus on designing, assembling, and testing chips.
+Long-term goal: Indigenous manufacturing by 2047.
+NUST Chip Design Center launched with Rs. 190 million allocation.
+Challenges:
+Limited government investment and inconsistent focus.
+Economic and political instability deterring private and foreign investors.
+Recommendations (Pakistan National Semiconductor Plan)
+Broad Policies:
+Ensure access to critical semiconductor technologies by 2050.
+Form a cabinet-level task force for implementation.
+Establish offices at key consulates to promote semiconductor businesses.
+Short-Term Goals (2025):
+Create a private nonprofit association (Pakistan Semiconductor Association).
+Invest in universities to enhance education and research in semiconductors.
+Establish Advanced Training Institutes (ATIs) for workforce development.
+Attract Chinese and US companies to set up design centers.
+Begin package and testing businesses as the first step toward manufacturing.
+Way Forward
+Investments:
+Allocate significant funds for infrastructure, research, and training.
+Provide tax incentives and subsidies to attract foreign investment.
+Private Sector Involvement:
+Encourage startups and private companies in semiconductor innovation.
+Human Capital Development:
+Utilize the 100,000 STEM graduates entering the workforce annually.
+Train professionals to international standards.
+Global Collaboration:
+Foster partnerships with leading semiconductor nations, including China, the US, and South Korea.
+Conclusion
+Pakistan’s semiconductor industry remains in its infancy but holds significant potential to contribute to the global market.
+Strategic investments and consistent policies are crucial for establishing a competitive industry.
+With strong leadership and collaboration, Pakistan can position itself as a key player in the global semiconductor landscape.

Preview/Pakistan_in_Choppy_Waters/Pakistan in Choppy Waters.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,55 @@
+Overview
+Historical Lessons: Nations like India and Japan overcame severe crises through visionary leadership and robust reforms.
+Pakistan’s Current Challenges: Economic instability, terrorism, political volatility, and youth migration are key issues undermining progress.
+Key Challenges
+Economic Crisis:
+
+Inflation exceeds 25%, reducing purchasing power.
+40% of the population lives below the poverty line.
+Rising costs of food, fuel, and electricity aggravate discontent.
+Dependency on IMF loans due to inconsistent policies.
+Terrorism and Security:
+
+While the frequency of terror attacks has decreased, insurgent activity persists.
+Pakistan remained on the FATF grey list (2018–2022), damaging its international image.
+Decline in tourism and sports diplomacy due to security concerns.
+Brain Drain:
+
+Economic uncertainty and poor governance force youth to emigrate.
+In 2023, 1.62 million people, primarily youth, left for Gulf and European nations.
+Massive brain drain undermines the country's long-term prospects.
+Political Instability:
+
+Frequent changes in leadership and long-standing political unrest hinder governance.
+Sit-ins, protests, and partisan conflicts distract from developmental priorities.
+Policy Dependence on Foreign Powers:
+
+Historical examples include training jihadists in the 1980s and facilitating U.S. operations post-9/11.
+These decisions have fueled extremism, terrorism, and social unrest.
+Inadequate Public Services:
+
+Education and healthcare remain inaccessible despite heavy taxation.
+Public sector job opportunities are limited, and private businesses struggle due to infrastructure challenges.
+Proposed Solutions
+Strengthening Democracy:
+
+Ensure all state pillars function within constitutional boundaries.
+Promote transparent and accountable leadership.
+Prudent Policy-Making:
+
+Focus on long-term, sustainable economic reforms.
+Resolve regional and bilateral issues (e.g., Balochistan, India) through dialogue.
+Renegotiate unfavorable agreements like those with Independent Power Producers (IPPs).
+Youth Empowerment:
+
+Provide opportunities to harness the potential of the country’s human capital.
+Improve the environment for entrepreneurship, education, and employment.
+Attract foreign investment and technological innovation to create a thriving ecosystem for youth.
+Silver Lining and Potential
+Resilience: Despite challenges, Pakistan’s geographic and human capital advantages offer immense opportunities for growth.
+Strategic Location: Positioned as a key player in South Asia, Pakistan can leverage trade and regional partnerships.
+Path Forward: A cohesive focus on governance, economic stability, and youth development can lead Pakistan toward sustainable prosperity.
+Conclusion
+Hardships and recovery are cyclical in nature; Pakistan must act decisively to break free from its recurring challenges.
+By fostering democratic institutions, implementing sound economic reforms, and prioritizing youth, the country can unlock its true potential.
+The nation’s future lies in the collective efforts of its leaders and citizens.

Preview/Preserving_Pakistan's_Cultural_Heritage/Preserving Pakistan's Cultural Heritage.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,58 @@
+Overview
+Cultural Heritage Significance:
+Acts as a bridge connecting Pakistan’s past, present, and future.
+Encompasses architectural wonders, traditions, music, dance, poetry, and handicrafts.
+Diversity as Strength:
+Each province contributes unique cultural elements to the national tapestry, showcasing unity in diversity.
+Key Aspects of Pakistan’s Cultural Heritage
+Historical Landmarks:
+Mohenjo-Daro: Reflects the grandeur of the Indus Valley Civilization.
+Taxila: Showcases Buddhist relics and wisdom.
+Badshahi Mosque: A symbol of Mughal magnificence.
+Intangible Heritage:
+Music and Poetry: Bulleh Shah, Shah Abdul Latif Bhittai’s verses resonate across generations.
+Traditional Dances: Pashtun Attan, Sindhi Jhumar foster community bonds.
+Handicrafts: Balochi embroidery, Multani pottery demonstrate artistic mastery.
+Provincial Highlights:
+Punjab: Basant festival, Sufi shrine celebrations.
+Sindh: Ajrak textiles, Tharparkar’s folk melodies.
+Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Pashto poetry, resilience.
+Balochistan: Ancient craftsmanship, storytelling traditions.
+Challenges
+Urbanization:
+Encroaches on historical sites, endangering preservation.
+Environmental Factors:
+Climate change and pollution damage ancient landmarks.
+Neglect and Funding:
+Insufficient government support for heritage conservation.
+Younger generations are losing touch with their cultural roots.
+Opportunities
+Economic Growth through Tourism:
+Countries like Italy, Egypt, and Turkey thrive on cultural tourism.
+Pakistan’s UNESCO sites (Mohenjo-Daro, Taxila, Makli Necropolis) have global appeal.
+With better infrastructure, visitor spending could grow significantly (from $16 billion in 2022 to a projected $30 billion by 2033).
+Global Promotion:
+Leverage social media, documentaries, and international events to highlight cultural treasures.
+Use modern tools like virtual reality and digital archives for wider accessibility.
+Support for Artisans:
+Financial assistance and training can help preserve traditional crafts.
+Exporting products like carpets, jewellery, and pottery could boost the economy.
+Recommendations
+Infrastructure Development:
+Enhance roads, accommodations, and guided tours at historical sites.
+Modernize airports and ensure traveler safety to attract foreign tourists.
+Education and Awareness:
+Integrate cultural history into school curricula.
+Organize field trips and promote participation in traditional activities.
+Cultural Festivals:
+Events like Lok Virsa Mela foster unity and showcase diversity.
+Bridge gaps between urban and rural communities.
+Harnessing Tourism Potential:
+Address safety concerns and improve international perception.
+Develop strategic promotion campaigns to position Pakistan as a global destination.
+Conclusion
+Preserving the Past for the Future:
+Protecting heritage is vital for honoring ancestors and inspiring future generations.
+Path to Economic and Social Harmony:
+Heritage is not just history but a source of identity and pride.
+By safeguarding and promoting cultural wealth, Pakistan can achieve economic progress, global recognition, and social cohesion.

Preview/Tackling_Informal_Economy/Tackling Informal Economy.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,64 @@
+Overview
+Significance of the Informal Sector:
+Contributes approximately $661 billion to Pakistan's economy (35.5% of GDP).
+Serves as a safety net in areas with limited formal job opportunities.
+Challenges of Informality:
+High income inequality and poverty.
+Limited tax revenue collection and lower productivity.
+Key Features of the Informal Economy
+Employment:
+Engages nearly 75% of Pakistan’s labor force.
+Critical for regions with limited formal employment opportunities.
+Fiscal Implications:
+Wholesale and retail trade (WRT) sector contributes only 2.9% to direct taxes despite accounting for 18% of GDP.
+Significant tax revenue losses due to unregistered businesses and workers.
+Comparison with Other Countries
+Global Trends:
+Informal sector accounts for 50% of GDP in India and 30–40% in Mexico and Brazil.
+60–70% of the workforce in low-income countries is employed in the informal sector.
+Fiscal Losses:
+South Africa: 5–10% of GDP lost to informality.
+Kenya: Up to 8% of GDP lost annually.
+Pakistan’s Challenges
+Tax Evasion:
+Only 300,000 of 3.5 million retailers file tax returns.
+Retail sector’s potential tax revenue is underutilized.
+Sectoral Imbalance:
+Manufacturing contributes 34.5% to direct taxes, while WRT contributes only 2.9%.
+Policy Weakness:
+Absence of streamlined taxation systems for the informal sector.
+Initiatives and Solutions
+Tajir Dost (Special) Procedure, 2024:
+Aimed at small traders and shopkeepers to bring them into the tax net.
+Advance tax of PKR 1,200 per year to be paid monthly through computerized systems.
+FBR Point of Sale (POS) System:
+Integrates retail sales with tax systems.
+Benefits:
+Real-time data transmission and improved tax compliance.
+Incentives for retailers, transparency, and better business insights.
+Tier-1 Retailers:
+Businesses meeting specific criteria (e.g., large retail chains, high electricity usage) must integrate POS systems.
+Only 58,802 traders registered under Tier-1, highlighting a gap in tax compliance.
+Tax Potential
+Retail Sector:
+Estimated retail market size of $300 billion in 2023.
+A 4% market size tax and 1% income tax could generate $15 billion annually.
+Current Contributions:
+Retail sector contributes Rs. 48.2 billion in taxes, far below its potential.
+Overall tax collection for 2022–23 stood at Rs. 7,164 billion.
+Recommendations
+Simplified Tax Schemes:
+Introduce low-rate, easy-to-implement tax schemes for small businesses.
+Expand POS Integration:
+Ensure wider adoption of FBR POS systems for transparency and compliance.
+Awareness Campaigns:
+Educate informal sector workers and businesses about the benefits of formalization.
+Incentivize Formalization:
+Offer tax rebates and financial support to businesses transitioning from informal to formal.
+Conclusion
+Economic Potential:
+Addressing informality can enhance tax revenues and reduce fiscal deficits.
+Strategic Focus:
+Combining administrative reforms, technology integration, and incentives is critical for formalizing the informal economy.
+Long-Term Goal:
+Formalizing the informal sector is essential for sustainable economic growth and achieving development goals.

Preview/Technical_Education_in_Pakistan/Technical Education in Pakistan.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,56 @@
+Overview
+Significance: Technical education is critical for economic and societal development, enabling skilled labor and innovation.
+Current State in Pakistan:
+Low enrollment rate in technical education (5.8%) compared to the global average (9.2%).
+Outdated curricula and inadequate funding hinder progress.
+Key Challenges
+Lack of Quality Institutions:
+Only a few of the 1,600 technical institutes meet international standards.
+Outdated Curriculum:
+Curricula fail to align with market needs, leaving graduates ill-prepared for the workforce.
+Government Support:
+Only PKR 6.98 billion (0.1% of the total budget) allocated to technical education.
+Shortage of Qualified Teachers:
+Limited investment in teacher training affects education quality.
+Demand-Supply Gap:
+Pakistan ranks 122nd out of 137 countries in talent retention.
+Skilled workers often emigrate, exacerbating the brain drain.
+Structural Issues
+Fragmented Vocational Training System:
+Bodies like TEVTA, NAVTTC, PSDF, and PVTC oversee training, but efforts lack coordination.
+Blue-collar workers typically acquire skills informally without formal credentials.
+Global Recognition:
+Training credentials of Pakistani workers are not widely accepted abroad.
+Bilateral agreements are needed to facilitate manpower export to developed economies.
+Opportunities
+Adopting Foreign Models:
+Learn from Europe, particularly Germany's vocational training system, which emphasizes structured, guild-based training.
+Utilizing Human Capital:
+Pakistan’s resilient and enterprising youth can thrive with proper training.
+Economic Growth:
+Skilled labor can stimulate entrepreneurship, innovation, and economic integration.
+Recommendations
+Increased Investment:
+Allocate more funds to equip institutions with modern resources.
+Curriculum Update:
+Align training programs with current market demands to ensure job readiness.
+Teacher Training and Development:
+Enhance the capacity of educators to provide quality education.
+Incentivize Participation:
+Offer scholarships and incentives to attract students to technical education, especially in rural areas.
+Global Partnerships:
+Establish bilateral agreements to export skilled labor and enhance international recognition of credentials.
+Awareness Campaigns:
+Promote technical education as a viable career path alongside traditional fields like medicine and engineering.
+Long-Term Vision
+Cultural Shift:
+Build societal acceptance for vocational training through awareness campaigns.
+Comprehensive Road Map:
+Develop a modern skill development framework with sustained government and private-sector support.
+Empower the Youth:
+Equip future generations to play a transformative role in the nation’s economic growth.
+Conclusion
+Call to Action:
+Pakistan must capitalize on its human capital by modernizing technical education systems and increasing societal awareness.
+Economic and Societal Impact:
+With proper training and investments, technical education can address unemployment, boost economic productivity, and integrate Pakistan into the global economy.

Preview/The_Case_for_Solidarity_Levies/The Case for Solidarity Levies.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,66 @@
+Overview
+Global Solidarity Levies Task Force:
+Launched at COP28 in 2023 with Barbados, France, and Kenya as co-chairs.
+Aims to propose scalable, progressive levy options to address climate finance gaps.
+Focuses on financial solidarity between developed and developing nations to achieve climate goals.
+Proposed Levy Options and Potential Revenues
+Shipping:
+
+Responsible for 3% of global emissions.
+Proposed levy rates range from $18.75 to $150/tonne of CO₂, increasing every five years.
+Revenue Projections:
+$127 billion annually (2027–2030) under high levy scenarios.
+$60 billion annually in a decarbonized scenario by 2050.
+Aviation:
+
+Accounts for 2% of global emissions and benefits from tax exemptions (e.g., VAT).
+Proposals include levies on kerosene fuel, private jets, and luxury tickets.
+Revenue Projections:
+$164 billion annually for global coverage.
+$58 billion annually for levies on high-income countries only.
+Fossil Fuels:
+
+Proposals include extraction levies and windfall profit taxes on energy companies.
+Revenue Projections:
+Extraction levy: $3.5 trillion globally by 2030 ($5/tonne CO₂e, rising yearly).
+Windfall tax: $212–$382 billion from major fossil fuel companies (2021–2023).
+Financial Transactions:
+
+A 0.1% tax on stocks and bonds and 0.01% on derivatives globally.
+Revenue Projections:
+$237.9–$418.8 billion annually.
+Carbon Pricing:
+
+Covers 24% of global emissions but is priced below effective climate targets.
+Revenue Projections:
+$104 billion in 2023 from current mechanisms.
+$50/tonne carbon price could raise 0.5–2% of GDP by 2030.
+Wealth Tax:
+
+Proposed 2% global tax on dollar billionaires.
+Revenue Projections:
+$250 billion annually.
+Cryptocurrency:
+
+Taxes on energy usage for mining and transactions.
+Revenue Projections:
+$15.8 billion from transaction taxes.
+$5.2 billion from energy use taxes (e.g., $0.045 per kWh for mining).
+Key Goals of Solidarity Levies
+Provide predictable and stable finance for climate action without increasing debt burdens.
+Ensure those with the highest emissions and financial means contribute their fair share.
+Enable all nations to raise ambitions for limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C.
+Challenges
+Legal and political barriers to implementing cross-border levies (e.g., aviation and financial transactions).
+Need for consensus among countries with differing economic capacities and priorities.
+Recommendations
+Political Leadership:
+Mobilize coalitions of willing nations to lead implementation.
+Equitable Contributions:
+Balance levy rates to ensure fairness for both developed and developing nations.
+Innovative Financial Mechanisms:
+Link levies with existing global initiatives (e.g., carbon markets, renewable energy projects).
+Conclusion
+Solidarity levies represent an essential tool for bridging the climate finance gap.
+Ambitious leadership and collaboration are key to turning these proposals into actionable solutions.
+The 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement in 2025 could be a milestone for implementing these levies.

Preview/The_Decline_of_the_Sole_Superpower/The Decline of the Sole Superpower.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
+Overview
+U.S. Global Dominance: Rooted in economic, military, technological, and institutional leadership.
+Current Shift: The rise of multipolarity and regional powers is redefining global influence.
+Key Pillars of U.S. Dominance
+Economic Leadership:
+
+Established post-Bretton Woods (1944) with institutions like the World Bank, IMF, and WTO.
+The U.S. dollar’s dominance as the global exchange currency underpins this power.
+Protector of the neoliberal economic order, giving leverage over capitalist democracies.
+Military and Security Alliances:
+
+Extensive global military presence: 450,000 active soldiers in 135+ countries.
+Alliances like NATO, Quad, AUKUS, and BECA secure U.S. geopolitical interests.
+"Global policeman" role through military interventions and security collaborations.
+Containment Policy:
+
+Successful containment of the USSR during the Cold War established post-Cold War dominance.
+Current focus on containing rivals like China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea through sanctions and regional partnerships.
+Partnerships in the Indo-Pacific (India, Japan, South Korea, Australia) target China’s expansion.
+Technological Innovation:
+
+Near monopoly on R&D and innovation (e.g., Meta, Microsoft, NASA, Google).
+Leadership in AI, robotics, and space exploration reinforces global influence.
+Manipulation of International Institutions:
+
+Uses influence in organizations like the UN, IMF, and World Bank to shape global policies.
+Historically exploited these institutions to uphold U.S. interests and suppress rivals.
+Challenges to U.S. Dominance
+Economic and Military Rise of China:
+Establishment of rival institutions and technological advancements.
+Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) strengthens China’s global economic reach.
+Russia’s Resurgence:
+New security dilemmas for the U.S., particularly in Europe.
+Increasing alignment with China to challenge U.S.-led global order.
+Emerging Multipolarity:
+Middle powers like India, Brazil, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia gain influence.
+Organizations like BRICS and SCO challenge the dominance of the U.S. dollar and military power.
+Evolving Alliances:
+Countries are exploring autonomy from U.S.-led systems, reshaping alliances.
+Future Outlook
+Dynamic Power Structures:
+The traditional unipolar dominance of the U.S. is being replaced by a multipolar global order.
+Emerging Economies:
+Nations like China, India, and Brazil are reshaping global politics and economics.
+Regional Autonomy:
+Increased influence of regional powers is redefining the global balance of power.
+Conclusion
+Reevaluation of Dominance:
+U.S. influence, while still significant, faces redefinition amidst rising global challenges.
+Adaptation to Multipolarity:
+The U.S. must navigate an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape to maintain its strategic interests.

Preview/The_Power_of_Big_Oil/The Power of Big Oil.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,48 @@
+Overview
+Climate Emergency:
+2024 is projected to be the warmest year on record, with global temperatures exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
+Human-caused climate change, primarily driven by burning fossil fuels, is the key contributor to this crisis.
+Role of Oil:
+Oil remains the most consumed fossil fuel, underpinning transportation, electricity, industrial processes, and even plastics production.
+The oil industry contributes about one-third of global carbon emissions, making it central to climate challenges.
+Big Oil
+Refers to the world's largest oil and gas companies, including state-owned entities.
+Economic Power:
+Generated $1 trillion in annual profits (1970–2020), peaking in 2022 due to energy price spikes post-Ukraine invasion.
+Paid $111 billion to shareholders in 2022 alone.
+Political Influence:
+Funds academic research favorable to its interests.
+Strong presence at global climate summits, with record lobbyist numbers at COP28, surpassing the combined representation of the 10 most climate-vulnerable nations.
+Challenges to Climate Action
+Industry Awareness and Negligence:
+Major oil companies were aware of fossil fuels’ climate impact since the 1950s but ignored warnings.
+Trillions continue to flow into fossil fuel development despite the International Energy Agency's (IEA) call for no new oil and gas projects to achieve net-zero by 2050.
+Strategies to Delay Energy Transition:
+Downplaying renewable energy viability.
+Framing renewables as a threat to energy security and affordability.
+Promoting market-based solutions over systemic changes.
+Big Oil’s Role in Emissions
+Oil and gas contributed over 50% of global fuel combustion emissions in 2022.
+Investments in clean energy remain marginal:
+$30 billion in 2023, only 4% of total capital expenditure.
+Companies claim leadership in renewables and carbon capture technologies, but progress is slow.
+Public Relations and Influence
+Uses PR campaigns, media sponsorships, and think tanks to shape narratives favoring fossil fuels.
+Promotes the perception of being essential to energy security while undermining renewable growth.
+Key Figures and Observations
+Scope 3 Emissions:
+These emissions include customer combustion of fuels, the largest contributor to Big Oil’s carbon footprint.
+Production Trends:
+Short-term increases in production despite long-term plans to peak or decline.
+Contradicts global calls for emission reductions.
+Criticism and Calls for Action
+Environmental and Social Costs:
+The relentless pursuit of profit exacerbates climate breakdown and creates climate refugees.
+Delayed energy transitions increase the risk of catastrophic climate impacts.
+Lack of Regulation:
+Fossil fuel executives resist voluntary emission cuts.
+Meaningful progress requires enforceable policies from global leaders.
+Conclusion
+The fossil fuel industry remains a primary obstacle to climate action despite being aware of the consequences for decades.
+Leaders must take decisive steps to regulate and transition away from oil dependency, leveraging existing solutions to address the climate crisis.
+The urgency of the situation demands global solidarity and immediate action to avert further damage.

Preview/Trump_2.0_and_Pakistan's_Emerging_Foreign_Policy/Trump 2.0 and Pakistan's Emerging Foreign Policy.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,59 @@
+Overview
+Global Context:
+Geopolitical shifts under new leadership often lead to realignments in global power structures.
+Donald Trump’s re-election as the 47th U.S. President in November 2024 is expected to significantly alter U.S. foreign policy, with implications for Pakistan.
+Pakistan’s Historical Relations with the U.S.
+Republican Governments:
+Historically, Pakistan has fared better under Republican administrations (e.g., Nixon’s support during the 1971 War, Reagan’s assistance in the Afghan War).
+Democratic Governments:
+Periods marked by arms embargos and sanctions.
+Transactional Nature:
+U.S.-Pakistan relations have always been pragmatic and based on regional and global circumstances rather than consistent ideological alignment.
+Key Dynamics under Trump 2.0
+China Policy:
+
+U.S.-China tensions are likely to intensify under Trump’s assertive stance.
+Pakistan’s strong economic ties with China (e.g., Belt and Road Initiative) could create friction with the U.S.
+Pakistan may face sanctions, as seen with U.S. penalties on China-related military hardware.
+Economic Policies:
+
+Trump’s protectionist policies, including high tariffs, could disrupt global trade and Pakistan’s economy.
+Pakistan’s reliance on Chinese economic support places it at odds with U.S. priorities.
+Military Relations:
+
+Unlikely to receive military hardware from the U.S. due to India’s strategic importance in the Indo-Pacific.
+Continued reliance on Turkiye and China for military support may attract U.S. scrutiny.
+Strategic Considerations for Pakistan
+Economic Dependencies:
+
+Pakistan’s reliance on U.S. engagement is crucial, particularly in light of its IMF loan program.
+Simultaneously, its dependence on China for infrastructure, energy, and trade limits flexibility.
+"Benign Realignment" Strategy:
+
+Engage diplomatically with both the U.S. and China to balance relationships:
+Warm relations with China when U.S.-China tensions ease.
+Maintain impartiality during periods of antagonism between the two powers.
+Focus on trade and economic partnerships rather than financial aid dependency.
+Regional Stability:
+
+U.S. support may continue for counter-terrorism efforts in Afghanistan.
+Maintain strategic balance to avoid becoming entangled in U.S.-China competition.
+Potential Risks
+Strained U.S.-Pakistan Relations:
+Pakistan’s dependence on China could lead to mistrust from the U.S.
+Risk of sanctions or reduced diplomatic engagement.
+Economic Vulnerabilities:
+Protectionist U.S. policies may disrupt trade.
+Reliance on external aid and investment limits policy independence.
+Policy Recommendations
+Diversify Economic Partnerships:
+Reduce overreliance on China by expanding trade relations with other nations.
+Strengthen Regional Cooperation:
+Engage with regional forums and neighboring countries to build a resilient economy.
+Focus on Stability and Growth:
+Shift foreign policy from aid-seeking to trade-focused strategies.
+Avoid Provocation:
+Exercise caution to ensure neutrality in U.S.-China tensions.
+Conclusion
+The Trump administration’s transactional approach and assertive policies pose challenges and opportunities for Pakistan.
+By adopting a strategy of "benign realignment" and prioritizing economic resilience, Pakistan can navigate the complexities of global power dynamics while safeguarding its national interests.

Preview/Trump_and_the_World_2.0/Trump and the World 2.0.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
+Overview
+Donald Trump’s second presidency will inherit a world marked by strategic fatigue in ongoing conflicts and a sharp rise in U.S.-China rivalry.
+Key global theaters like Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Lebanon present evolving challenges.
+Global Dynamics
+Russia-Ukraine Conflict:
+
+Strategic exhaustion and Russian on-ground successes complicate U.S. diplomatic leverage.
+Trump’s insistence on Ukraine staying out of NATO is unlikely to gain European support.
+Middle East:
+
+Iran's nuclear program has accelerated post-JCPOA withdrawal.
+Regional instability persists with active threats from Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah.
+China as the Primary Foe:
+
+China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and strengthening military position challenge U.S. hegemony.
+The appointment of hawkish figures like Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz underscores a confrontational stance.
+The U.S. Navy’s war-readiness plan for 2027 reflects preparations for potential conflict in the Pacific.
+Indo-Pacific Strategy:
+
+Australia is apprehensive about the future of AUKUS, fearing Trump’s "America First" policy might prioritize U.S. naval interests over partnerships.
+Biden’s Indo-Pacific strategy may face significant revisions under Trump.
+Implications for Pakistan
+Geopolitical Pressures:
+
+U.S. support for India aims to counter China and disrupt Pakistan’s China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
+Possible U.S. efforts to destabilize Pakistan through economic and political means to hinder CPEC’s success.
+Internal Challenges:
+
+Pakistan faces persistent internal instability with daily attacks in regions like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
+Ineffective political leadership and hollow responses to violence exacerbate the crisis.
+Path Forward for Pakistan:
+
+Focus on domestic security and political stability to counter external machinations.
+Rebooting CPEC is vital for economic recovery and resisting regional isolation.
+Key Allies and Adversaries in Trump 2.0
+India:
+Elevated as the primary strategic ally in the Indo-Pacific.
+A key outpost for advancing U.S. interests against China.
+China:
+Cemented as the top adversary with strategies to contain its rise.
+CPEC’s disruption is central to undermining China’s BRI ambitions.
+Israel:
+Expected to remain the greatest beneficiary of Trump’s foreign policy.
+Challenges to Trump’s Vision
+Declining U.S. Power:
+Dependence on military dominance is at odds with growing multipolarity.
+Trump’s aggressive policies could falter against China’s sustained rise.
+Complex Ground Realities:
+Balancing the “America First” philosophy with global responsibilities remains a critical challenge.
+Conclusion
+U.S.-China Rivalry:
+The core focus of Trump’s foreign policy will be to counter China’s growing influence.
+Opportunities and Risks for Pakistan:
+Stability and economic revival through CPEC are critical to counteracting external pressures.
+Pakistan must strategically balance relations with both the U.S. and China.
+Global Shifts:
+Trump’s return signals an era of intensified U.S. assertiveness but also exposes its vulnerabilities in a changing world.

Preview/Trump_vs_BRICS/Trump vs BRICS.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
+Overview
+Trump’s Statement:
+Threatened a 100% tariff on BRICS countries if they develop or support a rival currency to the U.S. dollar.
+Highlights U.S. concerns over maintaining dollar dominance in global finance and trade.
+BRICS:
+A bloc of nine nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Iran, UAE, and Ethiopia) seeking to challenge Western financial hegemony.
+Proposals for a common currency aim to reduce reliance on the dollar.
+U.S. Dollar’s Global Role
+Core Functions:
+Used in international payments, trade invoices, foreign exchange reserves, debt, and loans.
+Accounts for 59% of global foreign currency reserves and 58% of international payments (2024).
+Factors Behind Dollar Dominance:
+Large and dynamic U.S. economy (~25% of global GDP).
+Robust investor protections and legal framework.
+Open and deep capital markets.
+Petrodollar agreement with Saudi Arabia ensures steady capital flows.
+Challenges to Dollar Dominance
+Relative Decline:
+Share of dollar in global reserves fell from 70% in 2000 to 59% in 2024.
+Geopolitical fragmentation and the rise of the Global South contribute to this trend.
+BRICS as a Counterweight:
+Represents 46% of the global population and 35.6% of GDP (PPP).
+Proposals for alternative currencies gained momentum after U.S. sanctions on Russia and Iran highlighted the dollar’s weaponization.
+Feasibility of a BRICS Currency
+Challenges:
+Lack of institutions for creating and managing a common currency.
+Absence of a banking union, fiscal union, or shared central market.
+Geopolitical tensions among members, particularly China and India.
+Dominance of China in any potential BRICS currency raises concerns among smaller members.
+Historical Context:
+Developing a common currency, like the Euro, took the EU over 50 years.
+BRICS faces far greater structural and political hurdles.
+Trump’s Concerns
+Impact of Local Currencies:
+Increased use of local currencies in trade threatens the dollar’s primacy.
+BRICS initiatives to develop payment systems outside SWIFT and CHIPS bypass U.S.-led sanctions.
+Advantages of Dollar Hegemony:
+Reduces borrowing costs for the U.S. government.
+Enables global sanctions and economic coercion.
+Potential Consequences of Trump’s Threats
+Unintended Backlash:
+Accelerated use of bilateral currencies for trade.
+Increased fragmentation of global financial systems.
+Economic Implications:
+Imposing 100% tariffs would raise U.S. import prices, fueling inflation and harming the domestic economy.
+Long-Term Risks to Dollar Hegemony:
+Coercive policies undermine global confidence in the dollar.
+Future Outlook
+BRICS’ Limited Immediate Threat:
+A rival currency remains unlikely in the short term due to political and logistical challenges.
+India’s reluctance to de-dollarize further reduces momentum for a common currency.
+Emerging Trends:
+Gradual shift toward local currency trade by the Global South.
+Calls for reform in international financial institutions to reflect the rise of emerging economies.
+Conclusion
+No Immediate Threat:
+Trump’s concerns over a BRICS currency may be exaggerated; creating such a currency is a complex, long-term endeavor.
+Global Financial Reform:
+The Global South should focus on reducing dollar reliance through local currencies and reforms in global financial governance.
+U.S. Policy Risks:
+Overreaction to non-existent threats could erode the dollar’s position and harm U.S. economic interests.

Preview/US-China_Trade_War/US-China Trade War.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
+Overview
+Trump’s Second Term:
+Signals an escalation of the US-China trade war, with potential tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese goods.
+Reflects Trump’s "America First" policy and hardline stance against China.
+Implications:
+Trade wars create both distortions and opportunities in global markets, impacting various economies.
+Key Elements of Trump’s Trade War Strategy
+Cabinet Appointments:
+Key positions filled by China hawks (e.g., Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, John Ratcliffe as CIA head, and Michael Waltz as National Security Adviser).
+Indicates an uncompromising approach to China as a strategic rival.
+Tariff Beliefs:
+Trump perceives tariffs as a financial tool to bolster the U.S. economy, with the belief that costs are borne by exporters.
+Research, however, indicates that importers, consumers, and foreign manufacturers share the burden.
+Phase One Trade Deal Disappointment:
+Discontent with previous trade agreements may lead to a more aggressive stance.
+Impacts of the Trade War
+Global Economic Effects:
+Higher tariffs could disrupt supply chains and global trade flows.
+Non-participating countries may benefit from trade diversions.
+Opportunities for Pakistan:
+Increased competitiveness of Pakistani textiles and other goods in the U.S. market due to high tariffs on Chinese products.
+Potential for Pakistan to boost exports in areas like textiles, surgical tools, and sportswear.
+Potential Gains for Pakistan
+High Tariffs on Chinese Goods:
+Creates an opening for Pakistani exports to fill gaps in the U.S. market.
+Categories with potential include engineering goods, packaging, footwear, furniture, and jewelry.
+Relocation of Chinese Industries:
+To evade tariffs, Chinese manufacturers may relocate labor-intensive industries to Pakistan.
+Such moves could be facilitated by Pakistan’s infrastructure improvements under CPEC.
+Economic Opportunities
+Special Economic Zones (SEZs):
+Relocated industries could spur SEZ development in Pakistan.
+Attracts additional foreign investments and boosts economic growth.
+Geostrategic Advantage:
+Pakistan’s location positions it as a hub for global trade and investment.
+Could serve as a manufacturing base for other nations seeking to bypass trade restrictions.
+Challenges and Recommendations
+Challenges:
+Political and economic instability in Pakistan could deter investors.
+Overestimating or underestimating its potential may lead to missteps in policy.
+Recommendations:
+Closely monitor developments in the US-China trade war.
+Develop strategic action plans aligned with geopolitical and economic realities.
+Avoid hasty decisions and assess long-term feasibility of investment and export strategies.
+Conclusion
+Opportunity Amidst Conflict:
+The US-China trade war offers Pakistan a unique chance to increase exports and attract foreign investment.
+Strategic Approach Needed:
+The government must tread carefully, leveraging the trade war to position Pakistan as a key player in global markets.
+Balanced Policy:
+A measured and well-planned response can turn one of the greatest economic shifts into a transformative opportunity for Pakistan.

Preview/War_on_Humanity/War on Humanity.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,53 @@
+Overview
+Focus: The humanitarian crisis in Gaza, driven by Israeli military actions and compounded by global political failures.
+Key Themes: Crimes against humanity, global complicity, and the need for ethical and moral leadership.
+Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza
+Impact of Israeli Military Actions:
+
+Amnesty International and the UN have reported war crimes, genocide, and crimes against humanity in Gaza.
+Over 45,000 civilians massacred, with 16,000 children and women killed.
+Continuous bombardment by Israeli forces, using U.S.-supplied weapons, has devastated infrastructure, including hospitals, schools, and places of worship.
+Scale of Destruction:
+
+Bombings equivalent to four Hiroshima nuclear bombs have been dropped on Gaza.
+Tens of thousands remain buried under rubble, with unaccounted casualties mounting.
+Global Silence and Complicity:
+
+Western leaders and institutions have largely ignored these atrocities.
+Arab and Muslim leaders are criticized for their inaction, described as complicit in the suffering of Palestinians.
+Underlying Motivations
+Strategic Goals:
+Israeli plans to depopulate Gaza and seize its natural resources, including offshore gas reserves.
+Historical context: Military operations like “Operation Cast Lead” aimed at occupation and expulsion of Palestinians.
+Geopolitical Dynamics:
+Arab-Muslim leaders’ failures have left the Palestinian cause marginalized.
+Western powers’ selective application of human rights principles exacerbates the crisis.
+Moral and Ethical Perspectives
+Divine Teachings:
+Quranic verses stress justice, the sanctity of life, and universal brotherhood, contrasting with the ongoing atrocities.
+Call for Humanity:
+Scholars and thinkers urge a collective awakening to protect human dignity and sustainable peace.
+Failure to act is described as a betrayal of humanity and an endorsement of global dehumanization.
+Criticism of Global Leadership
+Western Hypocrisy:
+Leaders like U.S. President Joe Biden are accused of enabling Israeli aggression under the guise of peacemaking.
+The “Two-State Solution” rhetoric is seen as hollow, with no tangible steps taken to ensure its implementation.
+Arab-Muslim Leadership:
+Described as ineffective and complicit, enabling Israel’s expansionist policies through inaction.
+Key Observations
+Dehumanization of Palestinians:
+Systematic efforts to delegitimize Palestinian identity and rights.
+Proposed plans for forced relocation to Egypt underline the disregard for Palestinian sovereignty.
+Global Indifference:
+International institutions have failed to uphold principles of fairness and human dignity in addressing the conflict.
+Recommendations and Reflections
+Proactive Global Leadership:
+The international community must converge to hold perpetrators accountable and protect civilian lives.
+Equitable treatment for all parties in the conflict is crucial to restore faith in global governance.
+Need for Ethical Leadership:
+Moral and spiritually enlightened leaders are essential to counter escalating injustices and ensure peace.
+Call to Humanity:
+Scholars and thinkers advocate for a collective reawakening to prioritize human dignity and sustainability over geopolitical interests.
+Conclusion
+The Gaza conflict represents a failure of humanity, where political, ethnic, and cultural divisions have overridden ethical considerations.
+There is an urgent need for global solidarity, moral courage, and systemic reforms to prevent further atrocities and protect the rights of all people.

Preview/Women's_Suppression_in_Afghanistan/Women's Suppression in Afghanistan.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
+Overview
+Context: Since the Taliban regained power in 2021, women’s rights in Afghanistan have been systematically curtailed under strict interpretations of Sharia law.
+Global Recognition: Afghanistan is now considered “the most repressive country in the world [for] women’s rights” (UNAMA).
+Human Rights Framework
+Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR):
+Affirms rights like life, freedom, education, work, and social security for all, irrespective of gender.
+Denying these rights is a crime against humanity under international law.
+SDG Goal 5:
+Calls for gender equality and empowerment of women and girls worldwide.
+Historical Context
+Pre-2021 Period:
+Under U.S.-backed governance (2001–2021), Afghan women experienced advancements in education, political representation, and personal freedoms.
+Despite challenges, rights were constitutionally recognized.
+Taliban Era (1996–2001):
+Harsh restrictions on women’s rights, now reinstated with the Taliban’s return to power.
+Current Restrictions Under Taliban Rule
+Key Restrictions:
+Ban on education for girls aged 11 and above.
+Closure of female salons and prohibition on women speaking, singing, or reading in public.
+Exclusion from public parks and public life, including policymaking and cabinet representation.
+Travel restrictions requiring a male chaperone.
+Mandatory covering of the body and face.
+Male doctors barred from treating female patients, exacerbating healthcare access issues.
+Enforcement:
+Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice enforces these laws, reinstating measures from their earlier rule.
+Impact on Women
+Healthcare:
+Lack of female doctors severely limits access to healthcare.
+Social Exclusion:
+Women are effectively barred from public life and economic participation.
+Media Suppression:
+Crackdown on media coverage of women’s rights issues.
+Human Rights Violations:
+Described as systemic repression affecting nearly all aspects of women’s lives (Amnesty International).
+Resilience and Resistance
+Protests and Advocacy:
+Women have taken to the streets to peacefully protest against the Taliban’s oppressive policies.
+Online Platforms:
+Leveraging social media to raise awareness and educate others.
+Secret Education:
+Women are organizing covert educational efforts to continue learning and teaching.
+Economic Initiatives:
+Utilizing online platforms to run businesses and earn livelihoods for their families.
+Broader Implications
+Global Responsibility:
+International organizations and nations must prioritize advocacy and aid for Afghan women.
+Moral and Ethical Call:
+The repression of women is a crime against humanity that demands collective global action.
+Conclusion
+Call for Change:
+Afghan women demonstrate courage and resilience despite oppressive conditions.
+The international community must act to ensure human rights and freedoms for Afghan women and hold the Taliban accountable for violations.

Prview/Going_Down_with_Democracy/Going Down with Democracy.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
+Overview
+The 20th century saw the rise and consolidation of democracy, culminating in the so-called "victory of democracy" after the Cold War.
+The 21st century marks democratic regression with the rise of autocratic models (e.g., China, Russia) and the weakening of democratic values.
+Technology, identity politics, and the decline of participatory governance challenge the democratic ideal.
+Key Issues
+Selective Freedom of Speech and Cancel Culture
+Role of Big Tech:
+Platforms like Meta, X (formerly Twitter), and Google significantly influence political discourse.
+Selective censorship undermines freedom of speech, as seen with Elon Musk's management of X.
+Government Interference:
+Examples include compliance with government requests for censorship (e.g., Turkey, India).
+This erodes the level playing field in democratic processes and suppresses political debate.
+Spread of Disinformation:
+Viral social media content amplifies false narratives, overwhelming the capacity for verification.
+Platforms prioritize sensational content for monetization, further distorting truth.
+From Active Participation to Passive Clicktivism
+Political Impassivity:
+Social media has reduced democracy to a spectator sport, fostering passive activism.
+Users feel a false sense of achievement through actions like liking posts or tweeting about causes.
+Decline in Concrete Actions:
+Real political participation, like organizing movements or influencing policymaking, has diminished.
+Online engagement often replaces meaningful efforts for social change.
+The Unfamiliar Market of Ideas
+Failure of the Free Market of Ideas:
+The classic liberal concept that good ideas will outcompete bad ones has failed in the age of social media.
+Lies, disinformation, and propaganda thrive due to platform algorithms favoring sensationalism.
+Manipulation of Public Fears:
+Human psychology is manipulated by "fear instinct" and "negativity instinct," as described by Hans Rosling.
+Negative and fear-inducing content garners more attention, suppressing rational discourse.
+Technological Threats to Democracy
+Tech giants' control over information undermines the democratic process.
+CEOs of major platforms have disproportionate influence on political behavior, election outcomes, and public debate.
+This shift risks reducing democracy from "by the people" to control by a few powerful individuals.
+Future Considerations
+Government Regulation:
+Governments need to regulate tech platforms to ensure fair practices and accountability.
+Promoting Active Participation:
+Encourage grassroots political engagement and education to revive participatory democracy.
+Restoring the Free Market of Ideas:
+Limit manipulation by tech platforms and prioritize transparency in information dissemination.
+Conclusion
+The democratic ideal faces significant challenges in the modern age of technological disruptions.
+Without addressing these threats, the future risks being dominated by a few tech leaders rather than the collective will of the people.
+Governments and citizens must collaborate to preserve democracy's integrity and ensure it remains resilient in the face of evolving challenges.

Prview/The_Power_of_Big_Oil/The Power of Big Oil.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,48 @@
+Overview
+Climate Emergency:
+2024 is projected to be the warmest year on record, with global temperatures exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
+Human-caused climate change, primarily driven by burning fossil fuels, is the key contributor to this crisis.
+Role of Oil:
+Oil remains the most consumed fossil fuel, underpinning transportation, electricity, industrial processes, and even plastics production.
+The oil industry contributes about one-third of global carbon emissions, making it central to climate challenges.
+Big Oil
+Refers to the world's largest oil and gas companies, including state-owned entities.
+Economic Power:
+Generated $1 trillion in annual profits (1970–2020), peaking in 2022 due to energy price spikes post-Ukraine invasion.
+Paid $111 billion to shareholders in 2022 alone.
+Political Influence:
+Funds academic research favorable to its interests.
+Strong presence at global climate summits, with record lobbyist numbers at COP28, surpassing the combined representation of the 10 most climate-vulnerable nations.
+Challenges to Climate Action
+Industry Awareness and Negligence:
+Major oil companies were aware of fossil fuels’ climate impact since the 1950s but ignored warnings.
+Trillions continue to flow into fossil fuel development despite the International Energy Agency's (IEA) call for no new oil and gas projects to achieve net-zero by 2050.
+Strategies to Delay Energy Transition:
+Downplaying renewable energy viability.
+Framing renewables as a threat to energy security and affordability.
+Promoting market-based solutions over systemic changes.
+Big Oil’s Role in Emissions
+Oil and gas contributed over 50% of global fuel combustion emissions in 2022.
+Investments in clean energy remain marginal:
+$30 billion in 2023, only 4% of total capital expenditure.
+Companies claim leadership in renewables and carbon capture technologies, but progress is slow.
+Public Relations and Influence
+Uses PR campaigns, media sponsorships, and think tanks to shape narratives favoring fossil fuels.
+Promotes the perception of being essential to energy security while undermining renewable growth.
+Key Figures and Observations
+Scope 3 Emissions:
+These emissions include customer combustion of fuels, the largest contributor to Big Oil’s carbon footprint.
+Production Trends:
+Short-term increases in production despite long-term plans to peak or decline.
+Contradicts global calls for emission reductions.
+Criticism and Calls for Action
+Environmental and Social Costs:
+The relentless pursuit of profit exacerbates climate breakdown and creates climate refugees.
+Delayed energy transitions increase the risk of catastrophic climate impacts.
+Lack of Regulation:
+Fossil fuel executives resist voluntary emission cuts.
+Meaningful progress requires enforceable policies from global leaders.
+Conclusion
+The fossil fuel industry remains a primary obstacle to climate action despite being aware of the consequences for decades.
+Leaders must take decisive steps to regulate and transition away from oil dependency, leveraging existing solutions to address the climate crisis.
+The urgency of the situation demands global solidarity and immediate action to avert further damage.

Prview/Trump_and_the_World_2.0/Trump and the World 2.0.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
+Overview
+Donald Trump’s second presidency will inherit a world marked by strategic fatigue in ongoing conflicts and a sharp rise in U.S.-China rivalry.
+Key global theaters like Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Lebanon present evolving challenges.
+Global Dynamics
+Russia-Ukraine Conflict:
+
+Strategic exhaustion and Russian on-ground successes complicate U.S. diplomatic leverage.
+Trump’s insistence on Ukraine staying out of NATO is unlikely to gain European support.
+Middle East:
+
+Iran's nuclear program has accelerated post-JCPOA withdrawal.
+Regional instability persists with active threats from Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah.
+China as the Primary Foe:
+
+China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and strengthening military position challenge U.S. hegemony.
+The appointment of hawkish figures like Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz underscores a confrontational stance.
+The U.S. Navy’s war-readiness plan for 2027 reflects preparations for potential conflict in the Pacific.
+Indo-Pacific Strategy:
+
+Australia is apprehensive about the future of AUKUS, fearing Trump’s "America First" policy might prioritize U.S. naval interests over partnerships.
+Biden’s Indo-Pacific strategy may face significant revisions under Trump.
+Implications for Pakistan
+Geopolitical Pressures:
+
+U.S. support for India aims to counter China and disrupt Pakistan’s China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
+Possible U.S. efforts to destabilize Pakistan through economic and political means to hinder CPEC’s success.
+Internal Challenges:
+
+Pakistan faces persistent internal instability with daily attacks in regions like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
+Ineffective political leadership and hollow responses to violence exacerbate the crisis.
+Path Forward for Pakistan:
+
+Focus on domestic security and political stability to counter external machinations.
+Rebooting CPEC is vital for economic recovery and resisting regional isolation.
+Key Allies and Adversaries in Trump 2.0
+India:
+Elevated as the primary strategic ally in the Indo-Pacific.
+A key outpost for advancing U.S. interests against China.
+China:
+Cemented as the top adversary with strategies to contain its rise.
+CPEC’s disruption is central to undermining China’s BRI ambitions.
+Israel:
+Expected to remain the greatest beneficiary of Trump’s foreign policy.
+Challenges to Trump’s Vision
+Declining U.S. Power:
+Dependence on military dominance is at odds with growing multipolarity.
+Trump’s aggressive policies could falter against China’s sustained rise.
+Complex Ground Realities:
+Balancing the “America First” philosophy with global responsibilities remains a critical challenge.
+Conclusion
+U.S.-China Rivalry:
+The core focus of Trump’s foreign policy will be to counter China’s growing influence.
+Opportunities and Risks for Pakistan:
+Stability and economic revival through CPEC are critical to counteracting external pressures.
+Pakistan must strategically balance relations with both the U.S. and China.
+Global Shifts:
+Trump’s return signals an era of intensified U.S. assertiveness but also exposes its vulnerabilities in a changing world.

WRONG_Question.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,130 @@
+# Importing dependencies
+from dotenv import load_dotenv
+import streamlit as st
+from PyPDF2 import PdfReader
+from langchain.text_splitter import CharacterTextSplitter
+from langchain.embeddings import HuggingFaceEmbeddings
+from langchain.vectorstores import FAISS
+from langchain.prompts import PromptTemplate
+from langchain.memory import ConversationBufferMemory
+from langchain.chains import ConversationalRetrievalChain
+from transformers import pipeline, AutoModelForCausalLM, AutoTokenizer
+from htmlTemplates import css, bot_template, user_template
+
+# Load environment variables
+load_dotenv()
+
+# Creating custom template to guide LLM model
+custom_template = """Given the following conversation and a follow-up question, rephrase the follow-up question to be a standalone question, in its original language.
+Chat History:
+{chat_history}
+Follow Up Input: {question}
+Standalone question:"""
+
+CUSTOM_QUESTION_PROMPT = PromptTemplate.from_template(custom_template)
+
+# Extracting text from PDF
+def get_pdf_text(docs):
+    text = ""
+    for pdf in docs:
+        pdf_reader = PdfReader(pdf)
+        for page in pdf_reader.pages:
+            text += page.extract_text()
+    return text
+
+# Converting text to chunks
+def get_chunks(raw_text):
+    text_splitter = CharacterTextSplitter(
+        separator="\n",
+        chunk_size=1000,
+        chunk_overlap=200,
+        length_function=len
+    )
+    chunks = text_splitter.split_text(raw_text)
+    return chunks
+
+# Using Hugging Face embeddings model and FAISS to create vectorstore
+def get_vectorstore(chunks):
+    embeddings = HuggingFaceEmbeddings(
+        model_name="sentence-transformers/all-MiniLM-L6-v2",
+        model_kwargs={'device': 'cpu'}
+    )
+    vectorstore = FAISS.from_texts(texts=chunks, embedding=embeddings)
+    return vectorstore
+
+# Generating conversation chain
+def get_conversationchain(vectorstore):
+    # Use a Hugging Face model for question-answering
+    model_name = "distilbert-base-uncased-distilled-squad"  # Pretrained QA model
+    qa_pipeline = pipeline("question-answering", model=model_name, tokenizer=model_name)
+
+    def qa_function(question, context):
+        response = qa_pipeline(question=question, context=context)
+        return response['answer']
+
+    memory = ConversationBufferMemory(
+        memory_key='chat_history',
+        return_messages=True,
+        output_key='answer'
+    )
+
+    def conversation_chain(inputs):
+        question = inputs['question']
+        # Extract text content from Document objects
+        documents = vectorstore.similarity_search(question, k=5)
+        if not documents:
+            answer = "Sorry, I couldn't find relevant information in the document. Please ask a question related to the document."
+            memory.save_context({"user_input": question}, {"answer": answer})
+            return {"chat_history": memory.chat_memory.messages, "answer": answer}
+
+        context = "\n".join([doc.page_content for doc in documents])  # Extract `page_content` from each Document
+        answer = qa_function(question, context)
+        memory.save_context({"user_input": question}, {"answer": answer})
+        return {"chat_history": memory.chat_memory.messages, "answer": answer}
+
+    return conversation_chain
+
+# Generating response from user queries and displaying them accordingly
+def handle_question(question):
+    response = st.session_state.conversation({'question': question})
+    st.session_state.chat_history = response["chat_history"]
+    for i, msg in enumerate(st.session_state.chat_history):
+        if i % 2 == 0:
+            st.write(user_template.replace("{{MSG}}", msg.content), unsafe_allow_html=True)
+        else:
+            st.write(bot_template.replace("{{MSG}}", msg.content), unsafe_allow_html=True)
+
+def main():
+    st.set_page_config(page_title="Chat with multiple PDFs", page_icon=":books:")
+    st.write(css, unsafe_allow_html=True)
+
+    if "conversation" not in st.session_state:
+        st.session_state.conversation = None
+
+    if "chat_history" not in st.session_state:
+        st.session_state.chat_history = None
+    
+    st.header("CSS Edge - Intelligent Document Chatbot :books:")
+    question = st.text_input("Ask a question from your document:")
+    if question:
+        handle_question(question)
+    
+    with st.sidebar:
+        st.subheader("Your documents")
+        docs = st.file_uploader("Upload your PDF here and click on 'Process'", accept_multiple_files=True)
+        if st.button("Process"):
+            with st.spinner("Processing..."):
+                # Get the PDF text
+                raw_text = get_pdf_text(docs)
+                
+                # Get the text chunks
+                text_chunks = get_chunks(raw_text)
+                
+                # Create vectorstore
+                vectorstore = get_vectorstore(text_chunks)
+                
+                # Create conversation chain
+                st.session_state.conversation = get_conversationchain(vectorstore)
+
+if __name__ == '__main__':
+    main()

app.py

@@ -1,4 +1,179 @@
+import os
+from dotenv import load_dotenv
 import streamlit as st
+from langchain.text_splitter import CharacterTextSplitter
+from langchain.embeddings import HuggingFaceEmbeddings
+from langchain.vectorstores import FAISS
+from langchain.prompts import PromptTemplate
+from langchain.memory import ConversationBufferMemory
+from transformers import pipeline
+from htmlTemplates import css, bot_template, user_template
 
-x = st.slider('Select a value')
-st.write(x, 'squared is', x * x)
+# Load environment variables
+load_dotenv()
+
+# Creating custom template to guide LLM model
+custom_template = """Given the following conversation and a follow-up question, rephrase the follow-up question to be a standalone question, in its original language.
+Chat History:
+{chat_history}
+Follow Up Input: {question}
+Standalone question:"""
+
+CUSTOM_QUESTION_PROMPT = PromptTemplate.from_template(custom_template)
+
+# Extracting text from .txt files
+def get_text_files_content(folder):
+    text = ""
+    for filename in os.listdir(folder):
+        if filename.endswith('.txt'):
+            with open(os.path.join(folder, filename), 'r', encoding='utf-8') as file:
+                text += file.read() + "\n"
+    return text
+
+# Converting text to chunks
+def get_chunks(raw_text):
+    text_splitter = CharacterTextSplitter(
+        separator="\n",
+        chunk_size=1000,
+        chunk_overlap=200,
+        length_function=len
+    )
+    chunks = text_splitter.split_text(raw_text)
+    return chunks
+
+# Using Hugging Face embeddings model and FAISS to create vectorstore
+def get_vectorstore(chunks):
+    embeddings = HuggingFaceEmbeddings(
+        model_name="sentence-transformers/all-MiniLM-L6-v2",
+        model_kwargs={'device': 'cpu'}
+    )
+    vectorstore = FAISS.from_texts(texts=chunks, embedding=embeddings)
+    return vectorstore
+
+# Generating conversation chain with improved out-of-scope handling
+def get_conversationchain(vectorstore):
+    # Use a Hugging Face model for question-answering
+    model_name = "distilbert-base-uncased-distilled-squad"  # Pretrained QA model
+    qa_pipeline = pipeline("question-answering", model=model_name, tokenizer=model_name)
+
+    def qa_function(question, context):
+        response = qa_pipeline(question=question, context=context)
+        return response['answer'], response['score']
+
+    memory = ConversationBufferMemory(
+        memory_key='chat_history',
+        return_messages=True,
+        output_key='answer'
+    )
+
+    def conversation_chain(inputs):
+        question = inputs['question']
+        # Extract text content from Document objects
+        documents = vectorstore.similarity_search(question, k=5)
+
+        # If no similar documents are found or similarity is too low
+        if not documents:
+            answer = "Sorry, I couldn't find relevant information in the document. Please ask a question related to the document."
+            memory.save_context({"user_input": question}, {"answer": answer})
+            return {"chat_history": memory.chat_memory.messages, "answer": answer}
+
+        context = "\n".join([doc.page_content for doc in documents])  # Extract `page_content` from each Document
+        answer, score = qa_function(question, context)
+
+        # Define a threshold for confidence (e.g., 0.5)
+        if score < 0.5:
+            answer = "Sorry, I couldn't find relevant information in the document. Please ask a question related to the document."
+
+        memory.save_context({"user_input": question}, {"answer": answer})
+        return {"chat_history": memory.chat_memory.messages, "answer": answer}
+
+    return conversation_chain
+
+# Generating response from user queries and displaying them accordingly
+def handle_question(question):
+    response = st.session_state.conversation({'question': question})
+    st.session_state.chat_history = response["chat_history"]
+    for i, msg in enumerate(st.session_state.chat_history):
+        if i % 2 == 0:
+            st.write(user_template.replace("{{MSG}}", msg.content), unsafe_allow_html=True)
+        else:
+            st.write(bot_template.replace("{{MSG}}", msg.content), unsafe_allow_html=True)
+
+def main():
+    st.set_page_config(page_title="Chat with Notes and AI", page_icon=":books:", layout="wide")
+    st.write(css, unsafe_allow_html=True)
+
+    if "conversation" not in st.session_state:
+        st.session_state.conversation = None
+
+    if "chat_history" not in st.session_state:
+        st.session_state.chat_history = None
+
+    st.header("CSS Edge - Intelligent Document Chatbot with Notes :books:")
+
+    # Subject selection dropdown
+    subjects = [
+        "A Trumped World", "Agri Tax in Punjab", "Assad's Fall in Syria", "Elusive National Unity", "Europe and Trump 2.0",
+        "Going Down with Democracy", "Indonesia's Pancasila Philosophy", "Pakistan in Choppy Waters",
+        "Pakistan's Semiconductor Ambitions", "Preserving Pakistan's Cultural Heritage", "Tackling Informal Economy",
+        "Technical Education in Pakistan", "The Case for Solidarity Levies", "The Decline of the Sole Superpower",
+        "The Power of Big Oil", "Trump 2.0 and Pakistan's Emerging Foreign Policy", "Trump and the World 2.0",
+        "Trump vs BRICS", "US-China Trade War", "War on Humanity", "Women's Suppression in Afghanistan"
+    ]
+    data_folder = "data"
+    preview_folder = "Preview"
+    subject_folders = {subject: os.path.join(data_folder, subject.replace(' ', '_')) for subject in subjects}
+    preview_folders = {subject: os.path.join(preview_folder, subject.replace(' ', '_')) for subject in subjects}
+    selected_subject = st.sidebar.selectbox("Select a Subject:", subjects)
+
+    st.sidebar.info(f"You have selected: {selected_subject}")  # Display selected subject
+
+    # Option to upload documents or use preloaded subject data
+    use_preloaded = st.sidebar.radio("Select Data Source:", ("Use Preloaded Notes", "Upload Your Documents"))
+
+    if use_preloaded == "Use Preloaded Notes":
+        # Load preview content
+        preview_folder_path = preview_folders[selected_subject]
+        if os.path.exists(preview_folder_path):
+            preview_text = get_text_files_content(preview_folder_path)
+            st.subheader("Preview of Notes")
+            st.text_area("Preview Content:", preview_text, height=300, disabled=True)
+        else:
+            st.error(f"No preview available for {selected_subject}.")
+
+        # Process data folder for question answering
+        subject_folder_path = subject_folders[selected_subject]
+        if os.path.exists(subject_folder_path):
+            raw_text = get_text_files_content(subject_folder_path)
+            if raw_text:
+                text_chunks = get_chunks(raw_text)
+                vectorstore = get_vectorstore(text_chunks)
+                st.session_state.conversation = get_conversationchain(vectorstore)
+            else:
+                st.error("Could not load the content for question answering.")
+        else:
+            st.error(f"No data available for {selected_subject}.")
+
+    else:  # Upload documents option
+        docs = st.sidebar.file_uploader("Upload your text files here:", accept_multiple_files=True, type=['txt'])
+        if docs:
+            st.sidebar.info(f"Uploaded {len(docs)} file(s).")
+            if st.sidebar.button("Process"):
+                with st.spinner("Processing uploaded documents..."):
+                    raw_text = "".join([doc.read().decode('utf-8') for doc in docs])
+                    st.subheader("Uploaded Notes Preview")
+                    st.text_area("Preview Content:", raw_text, height=300, disabled=True)
+                    text_chunks = get_chunks(raw_text)
+                    vectorstore = get_vectorstore(text_chunks)
+                    st.session_state.conversation = get_conversationchain(vectorstore)
+
+    # Chat interface
+    question = st.text_input("Ask a question about your selected subject:")
+    if question and st.session_state.conversation:
+        st.write(f"**Subject:** {selected_subject}")  # Display subject before chat
+        handle_question(question)
+    elif question:
+        st.warning("Please process a document before asking a question.")
+
+if __name__ == '__main__':
+    main()

data/A_Trumped_World/A Trumped World.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
+Movie fans know that sequels are rarely any good, and they often take a darker turn than the original. The first installment of Trump as President was disappointing to many; the remake, too, is going to be worse. Trump sees unpredictability as an asset that keeps others off balance, and his well-deserved reputation for erratic behavior makes it harder to criticize him for being inconsistent. He said a lot of crazy things during his campaign, but how much of it was bluster and bluff and how much was sincere remains to be seen. Trump’s presidency would likely reshape the global balance of power, with the US withdrawing from certain commitments while reasserting itself in other areas. His isolationist tendencies might lead to a reduced American presence in traditional conflict zones, but his assertiveness in trade and diplomacy could redefine relationships with key players like China and Iran. Here is a look at some areas he will be focusing:
+
+Changing the Ukraine Strategy
+A cornerstone of reassessment of US support his campaign, Trump criticized the “blank cheque” approach to military and economic aid, suggesting a quick reduction or complete cessation of support. It is difficult to anticipate Trump's policy on the war because his team contains personnel with very different views. One group advocates sharply reducing aid to Ukraine—a view many associate with Trump. This group is naive about the Kremlin's policy toward the United
+States—Putin states plainly that the United States is adversary number one—and clueless about the danger of a Kremlin victory in Ukraine. The other camp recognizes the threat to US interests in Europe and elsewhere if Washington were to abandon Ukraine. This group would pursue a Reaganesque policy of peace through strength and, unlike the Biden team, not be intimidated by Putin's nuclear bluster. Additionally, Trump is expected to advocate for immediate peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, signaling a preference for negotiated settlements over prolonged military engagement.
+
+A firm stance on Israel
+Biden and Blinken's mishandling of the Middle East hurt Harris in the election, as did her unwillingness to distance herself from a policy that was both inhumane and ineffective. Among other things, this position undercut her attempts to portray Trump as a dangerous extremist who didn’t care about human rights, democracy, or the rule of law. But nobody should be under the illusion that matters will improve with Trump in the White House. His Middle East policy will likely continue his staunch support for Israel, positioning him as the most pro-Israel president in American history. However, reviving the "Deal of the Century" appears off the table, as the shifting dynamics in the region make it untenable. The escalation of violence in Palestine has complicated relations between Israel and key players like Saudi Arabia, whose leadership insists on the establishment of a viable and independent Palestinian state—a condition Trump and Israel are unlikely to accept. This unwavering support for Israel may also exacerbate tensions with Iran, although Trump’s historical approach hints at the possibility of unconventional diplomacy reminiscent of his outreach to North Korea.
+
+Iran: Sanctions and the nuclear question
+The return of Trump is likely to quickly evoke memories of his maximum-pressure campaign and the killing of Iranian Quds Force leader Qasem Soleimani. It is a clear possibility that Trump would immediately return to this campaign, in which sanctions would not just increase but be enforced. Trump’s strategy, however, would face significant limitations. Existing sanctions, he believes, have lost their effectiveness due to widespread international trade with Tehran. While his administration might explore the possibility of a new nuclear deal, it would likely be framed on terms favorable to the US, reflecting his transactional approach to international agreements.
+The Trump administration may be unable to recreate its full network of allies to undertake an intensive anti-Iran policy, especially if the policy does not contain a clear end goal of reaching a comprehensive deal with Iran.
+
+The Abraham Accords between Israel and Arab nations
+The Abraham Accords will likely serve as a key pillar of US policy in the Middle East for the Trump administration. Knowing that the Accords were among the foremost policy successes during Trump’s first term, the administration will prioritize enhancing and expanding the Accords, with a particular focus on securing agreements with key players such as Saudi Arabia. While the Trump administration will pursue opportunities to engage Palestinian leadership and bring an end to the Israel-Hamas war, it will not see a peace agreement as a necessary precursor for expanding the Accords. Instead, Trump will focus on creating a regional alliance against Iranian influence, leveraging recent Iranian and proxy actions across the region to entice new members with weapons agreements. Additionally, the new administration will likely explore initiatives that foster trade and investment among signatory nations to bolster new and existing agreements.
+
+Competition with China
+Trump’s policy toward China in his second administration will likely be similar to his approach during his first term. He has already shown a continued fixation on trade and outlined a plan to impose high tariffs, which will reignite disputes with Beijing over this issue and likely prompt retaliation against US businesses. In other respects, Trump may actually ease tensions with China—but not to the benefit of US strategic interests. Trump stated Russia friendly position on the war in Ukraine will remove a point of contention with Beijing but also serve Chinese leader Xi Jinping's geopolitical agenda. Trump has already signaled a lack of support for Taiwan and seems to believe that he can deter Chinese military action through personal charisma. Xi is not likely to be bedazzled, and Trump's display of weakness could embolden Beijing to take an even more aggressive stance toward the island's democratic government. More broadly, Trump's overt contempt for Washington's traditional allies will likely complicate collective action toward China and open divisions for Xi to exploit and expand Chinese global influence. Trump promises a focus on issues of minimal strategic importance to the United States that nevertheless will lead to Beijing and Washington bickering, along with a withdrawal of US global leadership that allows Xi to promote Chinese power at Washington's expense.
+
+Balancing China and Russia
+In terms of great power competition, Trump is expected to adopt a dual strategy: a tough stance on China, primarily through economic measures like tariffs, and a softer approach to Russia. His trade conflict with China would aim to secure more favorable terms for the US, potentially leading to productive negotiations. Meanwhile, his relatively conciliatory posture toward Russia would align with his long-standing skepticism of NATO's expansion and his desire to avoid further confrontation with Moscow.
+
+Relations with the EU
+Trump's return to the White House will pose a significant challenge for the US-European Union (EU) relationship. The relationship will become much less strategic and much less all-encompassing. Instead, EU and member state leaders will have to expend political capital at home and in Washington to make progress. And things will get worse quickly before they get better. Trump may well make good on his threat of imposing tariffs on the bloc, which would pressure Brussels into retaliation and a tit-for-tat trade war.
+The Trump administration will probably not look kindly on existing initiatives that the EU enjoyed with the Biden administration, and many in the Trump circle aiming for top jobs are not friends of Brussels. The EU will no longer have a strategic partner by default, including in its support for Ukraine or ambitions for EU defense, economic security, or the green transition. Paradoxically, the Trump administration will also likely demand more from the EU—on trade, China policy, and support for Ukraine if US aid is to continue, and more.
+
+Conclusion
+In essence, Trump's return would signal a marked departure from the current administration's strategies, reflecting his unique blend of nationalism, pragmatism, and unpredictability. How the world would respond to this shift remains a critical question for policymakers and analysts alike.
+

data/Agri_Tax_in_Punjab/Agri Tax in Punjab.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
+The Punjab government has taken the lead in amending its agricultural income tax law, bringing existing tax rates for individuals and businesses at par with federal income tax rates. The Punjab Agricultural Income Tax (Amendment) Bill 2024, which was passed by the provincial assembly on November 14, introduces sweeping reforms to modernize the agricultural tax regime in the province.
+
+Key Highlights
+The bill, amending the 1997 law, omitted exemptions given on farm income, while also taxing income from the livestock sector. Under the new legislation, several key changes have been made to the 1997 Act.
+
+As per the legislation, the income generated from livestock owned by farmers is also considered "agricultural income" and shall be brought into the tax net. The income generated from livestock will also come under the tax net. The farmers with higher incomes will also face tax on income after the passage of the bill.
+
+On November 14, the provincial assembly of Punjab passed the Agricultural Income Tax Amendment Bill, 2024, which removes all exemptions on agricultural income that will now be taxed. According to the bill, a super tax will be imposed on high-income farmers and landowners. The tax will also be imposed on the livestock sector, which will also be considered agricultural income.
+
+Effective from January 1, 2025, the amendments aim at ensuring equitable taxation by incorporating income from both traditional agriculture and livestock, aligning the provincial system more closely with the federal tax standards.
+
+The tax defaulters will also have to pay a total of 0.1 percent fine on their total income per day. Furthermore, the default surcharge rate has been revised to 12% or KIBOR plus three percent, whichever is higher, which aligns with federal financial standards and reinforces timely tax compliance.
+
+Another change includes the modernization of language within the Act, with terms such as “assessee” being replaced by “taxpayer,” and phrases like “income year” and “assessment year” being updated to “tax year,” simplifying the tax code and ensuring consistency with other tax laws in Pakistan.
+
+The amendments, as stated by the minister-in-charge, are designed to create a fairer agricultural tax system, particularly by including livestock income and adjusting tax schedules in line with federal standards.
+
+The government aims for these reforms to ensure timely tax adjustments, smoother administration, and increased revenue from Punjab’s agricultural sector.
+
+Analysis
+The passage of legislation to impose agriculture tax in Punjab is a step in the right direction. It was exempted for decades because of obvious political reasons, as land-wielding classes were instrumental in arm-twisting any such attempt, and in collusion with tax officials, were able to manoeuvre whatever little levies they were supposed to pay on agrarian lands. The bill has come as an umbrella to effectively tax farm incomes, including livestock. Though this was done to fulfil one of the IMF conditionalities, it goes without saying that it was essentially desired to not only raise a lawful and entitled source of revenue but also to end the monopoly that the feudal component had enjoyed by remaining aloof from their share of liability towards the national economy.
+
+The biggest riddle, however, is that the tax machinery in Pakistan is corrupt and officials do not have the capacity to assess proper revenue estimates from sources. The present Patwari-based revenue system has enough loopholes and operates in a world of whims and wishes of its own. The digitization of land, correct estimates of per-acre yield, the number of crops cultivated in two seasons, and now livestock data will be of essential importance to make the legislation a success. Otherwise, it will be like putting the cart before the horse and will be fraught with consequences.
+
+Moreover, a super tax that will come into effect on high-income farmers with the abolition of the exemption on agricultural land will require some minute shadowing.
+
+Agriculture accounts for 23% of the GDP, and is abysmally low in terms of tax-to-GDP ratio of below 1.0%. The bill has brought earnings from ‘commercial’ or ‘income-generating’ livestock into the tax net and scrapped exemptions on landholdings of less than 12.5 acres, and on absentee landholders. Introducing agricultural income tax rates for individuals and businesses on par with federal income tax rates is a great addition in the new law, and one hopes other provinces will also come up with their share in the national kitty. Balochistan, especially, is a treasure trove in livestock and rightful taxation there will be of great value.
+
+Conclusion
+Agricultural income has become a tool of evasion for those who obtain their income from other sources, such as industry. They show their profitable industry as making a loss, and declare the profits as agricultural income. Then there are large landowners, who do not pay any tax on substantial incomes, which leaves them sufficient surpluses to contest elections (thus saving political parties from having to put up the sums required to finance campaigns).
+
+Thus, national and provincial legislatures have seen strong agricultural and industrial lobbies, which have prevented a proper agricultural income tax from being imposed.
+
+It is not as if agriculture was untaxed. Going back to the Mughals, ownership (rather than income) was taxed in the form of land revenue. Once the primary source of income for the government, when it was finally abolished a few decades ago, it had been dwarfed by other taxes. Agricultural income tax was levied for the first time around then, using the same methods. Like land revenue, it was a tax on ownership rather than income. Under the bill, livestock is to be included. The government will have to consider whether the Revenue Department has the capacity to handle the taxation of income, which will ultimately involve the filing of not just returns but also expenditures, after which taxable income will be determined. Another danger will be corruption. There is no evidence that farmers are more moral than traders. It should be remembered that it is not a question of revenues, but of fairness.
+
+There seems to be no reason for agricultural income to be exempt, except that farmers fill the halls of the legislatures. IMF pressure might not be a good reason for making the agricultural income more comprehensive.

data/Assad's_Fall_in_Syria/Assad's Fall in Syria.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
+President Bashar Al-Assad's regime in Syria has collapsed like a house of cards. It was only on November 27 that a coalition of armed opposition groups, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), began an offensive against Assad government-held positions in Aleppo and Idlib provinces in the northwest of Syria. As Russia—the main backer of Assad in the region—got bogged down in Ukraine and Iran got embroiled in dangerous escalation with Israel, the regime became vulnerable, providing a godsend to the Syrian rebels, led by Abu Mohammed al-Julani's HTS, to unleash a decisive assault on Damascus. Within less than two weeks, they rolled into Damascus, and al-Assad and his family fled to Russia, marking a spectacular end of five decades of Ba'ath Party rule in the country.
+
+Despite Assad's ruthless actions against his own people, internal factors were not the sole drivers of his regime's collapse. Syria became a battleground for geopolitical rivalries, as external powers exploited the crisis to further their own agendas. Already after the regime change, as if waiting for this opportunity, Israel quickly sent its troops into a demilitarized zone within Syrian territory along the Golan Heights, which Israel already illegally partially occupies. At the same time, Israeli warplanes carried out hundreds of airstrikes in Syria, targeting purported positions of its adversaries—Hezbollah and Iran.
+
+The Syrian rebel groups who captured Damascus range from secular democrats to Islamists and ethno-nationalists, reflecting a volatile mix of ideologies and loyalties. As they jostle for a bigger share in power and influence, Syria could become another casualty of the geopolitical gamble, sucking in regional nations pursuing conflicting agendas.
+
+Hence, with Assad's ouster, the Middle East has entered a new era, and its previous foundations, political and social, have already irrevocably gone. The ouster of Assad is the deathblow to Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” as Syria was the main logistical hub for Tehran to supply arms to its ally Hezbollah in Lebanon. A crisis in Iran will possibly set off a chain reaction that may lead to a revision of borders, changes in political regimes, and an intensification of the struggle for resources and influence.
+
+What caused the fall of the Assad government?
+The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government and the opposition’s rise to power were the result of many years of internal and external contradictions that had intertwined into a complex knot, leading to devastating consequences for Syria. These events cannot be called sudden or unexpected. They were the logical outcome of deep-seated processes that had been tearing the country apart for years and gradually eroding the foundations of its political system.
+
+Bashar al-Assad, having taken office as President in 2000, inherited a state with enormous potential but also with no less significant internal problems. The authoritarian model of governance built by his father, Hafez al-Assad, ensured stability but did not allow the system to adapt to new challenges. Growing discontent among the population, caused by economic stagnation, inequality, corruption, and a lack of social prospects, became the foundation for the gap between the government and society.
+
+Instead of reforms and compromise, the government chose the path of suppression and militarized the conflict, which further deepened the crisis. However, the internal problems were only aggravated by the influence of external forces. The Syrian crisis quickly turned into an arena of geopolitical struggle, with each side pursuing its own interests. Western countries and Arab monarchies openly supported the opposition, seeking to weaken the Assad government and undermine the influence of its allies, Russia and Iran. Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Israel also saw Syria as an opportunity to strengthen their positions in the region, which was expressed in economic, military, and political support for the opposition forces.
+
+At the same time, Russia and Iran, playing the role of key allies of Damascus, sought to maintain Assad's power and stabilize the situation in the country, viewing Syria as an important element of their influence in the Middle East.
+
+The events of October 7, 2023, had a significant impact on the situation in Syria, aggravating the crisis. Israeli strikes seriously damaged Iranian influence in the region and particularly weakened Hezbollah, which was a key military ally of Bashar al-Assad’s government. The loss of Hezbollah and the reduction of Iranian support deprived the Syrian government of important resources in the fight against the armed opposition. This allowed the opposition forces to become more active, which led to the loss of Aleppo, Homs, and the encirclement of Damascus.
+
+Syria also fell victim to the chaos brought about by terrorist groups that took advantage of the weakness of the central government. Militants acting without rules not only exacerbated the crisis but also discredited the very idea of political dialogue.
+
+In such conditions, the Assad government was unable to cope with the challenges, and attempts to remain in power by force only accelerated the process of destabilization. An important factor was the decline in trust in the regime on the part of those who had recently supported it. Economic difficulties, rising prices, shortages of basic goods, and constant hostilities made life unbearable for the population. Years of sanctions and an economic blockade had deprived the leadership of room for maneuver, and the lack of reforms convinced many that change was necessary, even if it brought destruction.
+Bashar al-Assad found himself in a difficult position as a political figure. His initial reluctance to become the country’s leader, his upbringing in a household dominated by his older brother Basil, and his lack of political ambitions left him vulnerable to challenges. After Basil’s death, Assad was forced to take over as heir, but his secular education in London and lack of experience in governing the country made him more of a symbol of the system than its real architect. Over the years, accumulated problems and personal tragedies, such as the illness of his wife Asma, sapped his energy and may have affected his willingness to change. Assad ultimately found himself trapped in a system that could no longer provide stability or prospects for development.
+
+On the threshold of a “Persian autumn”
+It is premature to talk about the end of the crisis in Syria, because the example of Libya clearly demonstrates that the overthrow of a regime does not always bring long-awaited stability. Since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi, Libya has failed to find peace, becoming an arena of incessant wars, internecine strife, and the shattered hopes of millions of citizens. The country has been fragmented between numerous groups, each pursuing its own interests, and the population has found itself in conditions of endless chaos, a loss of security, and destroyed infrastructure.
+
+A similar fate could befall Syria, where the apparent success of the opposition and its Western patrons hides a real threat of protracted conflicts. They could lead to even greater disunity in the country, exacerbate its exhaustion, and make the restoration of peace distant and almost unattainable.
+
+After the fall of Bashar al-Assad, the conflict potential in the region will inevitably increase.
+Syria, which has long served as an arena for confrontation between global and regional players, will become a source of instability that could spill over to neighboring states. The political vacuum created by Assad’s loss of control will inevitably provoke new conflicts between various ethnic and religious groups, as well as the increased activity of extremist organizations.
+
+The next point of crisis may be Iran, which will find itself under pressure from both internal and external factors. On the one hand, growing popular discontent, economic difficulties, and tensions between various political and social strata are already visible within the country. On the other hand, external pressure, including sanctions and possible provocations from neighboring states, may aggravate the situation, pushing Iran into a new stage of crisis.
+
+The region that experienced the “Arab Spring” risks finding itself on the threshold of a “Persian Autumn.” This metaphor symbolizes possible profound changes in the geopolitical and social structure of the Middle East, where Iran may become the epicenter of transformation processes. It is difficult to predict what consequences these changes will have, but one thing is clear: the region is expecting serious upheavals that will affect the global balance of power.
+
+These developments will inevitably transform the Middle East, making it even more fragmented, unpredictable, and difficult for international regulation. A crisis in Iran could set off a chain reaction that will lead to a revision of borders, changes in political regimes, and an intensification of the struggle for resources and influence.
+
+Conclusion
+Given the years of suffering endured by the Syrian people—caused by both internal and external factors—it is imperative that foreign interference in the country comes to an end. While the international community should step forward to provide aid and funding for Syria's reconstruction, foreign powers must cease using the country as a pawn in their geopolitical chessboards. The future of Syria must be determined by its own people. Only then can the nation truly reap the benefits of ousting a brutal dictator.
+

data/Elusive_National_Unity/Elusive National Unity.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+A vast majority of Muslims of the Indian Subcontinent showed remarkable unity and got what they wanted: Pakistan—an independent state for Muslims. One of the bitterest truths is, however, that the unity Muslims had shown during the freedom struggle is still elusive in today’s Pakistan. Pakistan gained its independence from the shackles of the British colonial rule. Quaid-i-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah, the founding father of Pakistan, envisioned a state based on democratic principles—freedom, justice, and equality. His speech on August 11, 1947, wherein he said, “You are free; you are free to go to your temples […] to any other places of worship in this State of Pakistan. You may belong to any religion or caste or creed—that has nothing to do with the business of the state,” and his motto “unity, faith, and discipline” was a clarion call for national unity. There was a sense of unity when he was alive, but it seems to have vanished since his untimely demise in 1948.
+
+Pakistan has been lurching from crisis to crisis since then. The failure to effectively manage power structures, coupled with the migration crisis, institutional deficiencies, and colonial legacies, concentrated power in the hands of a few, stifling the development of an inclusive and cohesive environment necessary for the growth of a nation. These foundational shortcomings have left Pakistan susceptible to internal divisions, where ethnic, linguistic, and regional disparities continue to challenge the unity envisioned by its founding fathers.
+
+As Lawrence Ziring notes in his book “Pakistan: The Enigma of Political Development,” the colonial legacy in Pakistan left a fragmented political system with centralized power structures that were not conducive to fostering national integration. Instead of building inclusive institutions, the focus remained on maintaining centralized control, which undermined the development of a democratic and cohesive state. However, the praetorian governance structure, the dynastic nature of political parties, and the recurring interference of the establishment have led to a weakened parliament and a pyrrhic democratic structure. The erosion of federalism has, thus, been a consistent feature of Pakistan’s political landscape. Historical events, such as the repressive governance towards East Pakistan, which culminated in the creation of Bangladesh, serve as a stark reminder of the consequences of neglecting regional grievances.
+As Ayesha Jalal argues in her book, “The Struggle for Pakistan: A Muslim Homeland and Global Politics,” the failure of the central government to recognize the political and cultural aspirations of East Pakistan, coupled with the suppression of autonomy, led to escalating tensions and, ultimately, the secession of East Pakistan in 1971.
+
+Today, Pakistan faces a similar crisis of national unity, where the trust between the centre and provinces is increasingly frayed. The concentration of power and resources in the hands of the central government has led to a sense of alienation in regions such as Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). Balochistan has been a hotbed of ethnic conflict since 1947, having witnessed four major insurgencies—in 1948, 1962-69, 1973-77 and 2006. The most recent insurgency traces its origins to the killing of prominent Baloch leader Nawab Akbar Shahbaz Khan Bugti during a military oppression in 2006. The concentration of power in the hands of the central government, as well as the systematic suppression of regional identities by Pakistan's ruling elites, has been the key driver of the Baloch ethnic conflict. This issue is closely linked to Pakistan’s struggle with federalism, where one province’s dominance over others has led to insurgencies, terrorist movements and growing extremism in both Balochistan and KP.
+According to the Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearances, as of August 2023, there were 9,967 reported cases of enforced disappearances in Pakistan, with 2,708 of those originating from Balochistan alone.
+
+In a similar vein, KP, with its own history of marginalization, is witnessing the rise of movements like the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM), which underscore the need for a federal framework that accommodates ethnic and regional diversity. The PTM, led by Manzoor Pashteen, has emerged as a strong voice for justice and the rights of the Pashtun community. On October 11, 2023, the Pashtun Qaumi Jirga, convened by Manzoor, united the Pashtun community to highlight the brutalities and injustices they have faced at the hands of the state. A documentary shown during the jirga reported that 76,584 individuals from KP have been killed in bombings, shootings and other attacks, while 6,700 people remain missing. This tragic reality highlights the political instability, violence and social crisis that continue to engulf both Balochistan and KP.
+
+Both KP and Balochistan are lurching from one crisis to another. On November 21, a heart-wrenching incident occurred in the Kurram district of KP, where a passenger convoy travelling from Parachinar to Peshawar was ambushed by an unknown group. The attack, rooted in long-lasting tribal disputes and deeply entrenched religious sectarianism, left scores of people dead and others injured, including women and children.
+According to a report released by the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), the majority of the 48 reported terrorist attacks occurred in KP and Balochistan, highlighting the precarious security situation in these provinces.
+
+To preserve Pakistan’s unity and stability, it is essential to address the systemic flaws that have long hindered the development of a cohesive state. A shift from an oppressive to a welfare-oriented approach, coupled with the full implementation of the 18th Amendment to decentralize power, is crucial for strengthening federalism and promoting national integration.
+Proactively addressing regional grievances, ensuring equitable control over natural resources and granting provinces their rightful autonomy in line with the constitution are vital steps in fostering trust between the center and the provinces. Additionally, ensuring justice for missing persons and holding security forces accountable will rebuild public faith in state institutions. Through these comprehensive reforms, Pakistan can move towards a more unified and stable future, where federalism is fully realized and all ethnic and regional identities are respected, allowing the nation to thrive as envisioned by its founders.

data/Europe_and_Trump_2.0/Europe and Trump 2.0.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
+Historic political chaos, the war in Ukraine and economic stagnation on the continent have left Europe in a weaker position to handle the expected fallout
+from Donald Trump's return to the US presidency. EU is, especially, going to have a tough four years, and then figures like Vice President elect J.D. Vance
+will be there to take up the reins. Black clouds are everywhere. Europe is threatened from many directions. The reasons for panic are obvious. Trump may be
+unpredictable and mercurial, but there is little doubt that his political instincts and stated plans will shake the pillars of Europe's security, economic and political order. In fact, Trump 2.0 may just be the catalyst needed to jolt Europe.
+
+Europe's existential crises
+Plagued by mass migration, economic decay, political turmoil and an existential crisis of identity, Europe is a civilization in freefall. Trump's ambitious 
+vision - with its focus on strength, sovereignty and economic dynamism - may well be the West's last hope. 
+
+The troubles afflicting Europe broadly run deep, and the trajectory appears increasingly grim. Mass migration, as in Biden's America, is a paralyzing force; eroding social institutions and overwhelming public services. Europe is grappling with an economic malaise that borders on catastrophic.
+
+This is a decline by design—a continent offering itself on the altar of ideological delusions. Centralized bureaucracies impose crippling regulations, monetary policies stifle growth, and the EU's corporatist economic model enriches elites while gutting industry. The result? Productivity and growth that lag behind the United States, leaving Europe a depressing case study in how not to govern.
+
+The political landscape is equally bleak. The collapse of the French government in a no-confidence vote is just the latest episode in a long-running drama of dysfunction. Emmanuel Macron, for all his pretensions of being Europe’s reformist savior, has been reduced to a lame-duck president, thwarted by a fractured and hostile parliament. Germany, once deemed to be the economic powerhouse of the EU, finds itself in a similar bind, heading for early elections while its economy is battered by crippling energy policies. At a time when strong leadership is desperately needed, Europe’s elites are playing at committee politics and virtue-signaling, oblivious to the storm clouds gathering on the horizon.
+
+The Trump Factor
+Enter Trump 2.0, the antithesis of Europe’s managed decline. His bold, unapologetic vision for America is a direct challenge to the wrongheadedness and complacency of Europe’s leaders. They see his brashness as a threat when it is precisely what the West needs—common sense.
+
+American presidents are unafraid to confront uncomfortable truths and act decisively on the world stage. Consider Trump’s approach to NATO. Unlike Europe’s feckless leaders, who have treated the alliance as a free ride on America’s dime, Trump demands accountability. By insisting that member states pay their fair share, he not only strengthens NATO but exposes the hypocrisy of Europeans who lecture on "shared values" while shirking their responsibilities. So, NATO itself may well go "dormant," with America radically reducing its participation and handing responsibility for the alliance’s military command and resources over to the Europeans.
+
+On energy, the contrast is equally stark. While the UK and much of Europe cripple themselves with net zero dogma, Trump is promising to unleash America’s energy sector in an attempt to secure both economic stability and strategic autonomy. His policies, rooted in pragmatism, recognize that energy independence is achievable without sacrificing growth or security. Europe’s energy crisis is no accident; it is the direct result of leaders who prioritize green ideology over common sense.
+
+The economic scenarios are even scarier. Trump has talked about imposing a universal import tariff of 10-20 percent, and a 60 percent tariff on goods from China. Such a policy risks triggering a global trade war, with governments introducing retaliatory measures against the United States. If China is shut out of the US market, Europeans will be even more vulnerable to the supply effects of its manufacturing overcapacity.
+
+Making matters worse, Europe’s response to another Trump presidency may well be hampered by the “liberal international,” which includes Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
+
+For all these reasons, European leaders are on the verge of panic and feel tempted to rush to Washington to cut bilateral deals—as many did during Trump’s first term. If they do, it will come directly at the expense of European unity.
+
+Europe’s Misdoings
+However, to blame Trump for Europe’s woes—as some predictably do and will—is to miss the point entirely. If dark days are ahead, they are not the result of Trump’s rise but the culmination of Europe’s own failures—its refusal to tackle mass migration, its suicidal economic policies, and its unwillingness to defend national sovereignty. Trump’s return is not a threat but an opportunity—a chance for Europe to reverse course and embrace a bold new direction.
+
+The choice before Europe is stark: continue down the path of ruin, or follow Trump’s lead and reclaim its destiny. His vision, with its emphasis on strength, self-determination, and unflinching realism, offers a lifeline to a continent on the brink. Whether Europe seizes it or squanders it will define the future of the West.
+
+How to Cope with Trump 2.0
+Confronted with these scenarios, the most urgent task for European leaders is to agree on their common interests and work out how to defend them—together with the US, if possible, but alone, if necessary. That means drafting a concrete plan to protect Europe from both security and economic pressures.
+
+The most immediate concern is Ukraine. To prevent a deal that leaves Ukraine demilitarized and shut out of NATO, Europe needs to ensure a steady flow of ammunition and air defenses in the short term, while providing Ukraine with credible long-term security guarantees. It also must figure out how to spend more efficiently on defense, increase the volume of combat-ready forces available to NATO and the European Union, and, if necessary, strengthen its own nuclear deterrence.
+
+The second most challenging issue will be trade. If Trump keeps his promise of levying across-the-board import tariffs, a trade war between the EU and its biggest export market is inevitable. In a world where geopolitics and geoeconomics are increasingly intertwined, the bloc should prepare countermeasures against the US and seek to expand trade with the rest of the world.
+
+Conclusion
+The EU’s future depends on the courage and maturity of European elites. As the European Union’s founding architect Jean Monnet predicted: "Europe will be forged in crises and will be the sum of the solutions adopted for those crises." Once again, these words ring true. The EU has proved its resilience time and again. In that spirit, Trump’s new presidency could act as a trigger for Europe to deal with its most pressing issues. Indeed, if it responds strategically, the EU has a chance to cease being a geopolitical teenager and progressively assert itself on the world stage.

data/Going_Down_with_Democracy/Going Down with Democracy.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+This chaotic world has always been a coliseum for the big powers to brandish and flex their might, with one’s rise orchestrating another’s fall. Each browbeat is more than its opponent; from giving death stares in the Cold War to engaging in various indirect brawls in foreign territories, ending up, sometimes, in the Thucydides trap. The last century witnessed the battle of ideologies, which ended with the so-called “victory of democracy” – and “the end of history” as propounded by Francis Fukuyama. [Fukuyama’s argument was that with the imminent collapse of the Soviet Union, the last ideological alternative to liberalism had been eliminated. Fascism had been killed off in the Second World War, and now Communism was imploding. In states, like China, that called themselves Communist, political and economic reforms were heading in the direction of a liberal order.] Despite all other competitive ideologies, the world in the 20th century was always more democratic than in the past, with newer and newer democracies emerging, older democracies becoming more stable, free and vibrant, and even the autocracies softening and opening up. But that’s not the case anymore; the current century has proved to be a period of democratic regression with the rise of newer powers in the world like China and the resurgence of old powers like Russia, each presenting an alternative model, which is a big fat threat to Western democracy. Technology is somehow seen to be in favour of these competitive ideologies; with cancel culture on the rise, the West is not only receding back to identity politics, tribalism and patrimonialism but also seems to be falling out of love with the very idea that they have nurtured and fought for for many centuries: the sweet democracy.
+
+Selective freedom of speech and the cancel culture
+Our understanding of the world is today mediated most of the time by the screens, not only in poor or developing states but also in the First-World states. The three big tech corps – Meta, X (formerly Twitter) and Google – are messing with democracy in unprecedented ways. Last time, it was Facebook and Zuckerberg’s meddling with people’s voting behaviour in the Project Alamo for the Trump presidency and Cambridge Analytical’s venture for Brexit that rattled the political pundits all over the world. Things have changed exponentially since then. Think beyond that: what if a single person, who is the CEO of an online media platform, could determine if a certain candidate will be allowed to use his platform for his campaign or not? Or maybe influence masses using this platform? No need to think further; our wildest dreams are reality now. It’s not Facebook but rather X that has raised hackles in the political community this time. While Elon Musk claims to be a “free speech absolutist,” he turned out to be a selective absolutist, only for those who share his ideology. After Trump’s election as the new president, X complied with 83% of requests made by the governments for censoring or surveilling the accounts of the critics. The same platform underwent a deal with Turkish president Erdogan, who demanded X for censoring or blocking his political opponents, and the platform complied. Similarly, the Indian government’s requests for removing the controversial documentary on Narendra Modi was also accepted, and all the accounts of the critics were blocked. All these are blunt attacks on freedom of speech, strangling the political debate that is always essential for nurturing mature political culture. The democracy’s promise of giving a level playing field to everyone in the electoral process is doubtful today. Even in the US, the First Amendment put restrictions on the government that it can't suppress or put any restriction on the freedom of speech so that none of the individuals or the corporations that have so much power and influence over the political behaviour is capable of determining the outcome of the elections. The disinformation is like the dust of elections; you put something on social media, it goes dandelion; you put something on social media, it goes places and countries you didn’t even hear of. And there’s virtually no way of determining its authenticity; no one goes through the hard task of filtering, and no one goes through the hard task of filtering. Moreover, these media giants decide themselves what is “hate speech,” and every now and then a person becomes a victim of this cancel culture, and when this particular person decides to speak against all that, he gets blocked by X or Facebook.
+
+From men of deeds to men of clicks
+From men of deeds that has emerged due to social media is political impassivity, democracy is now a spectator’s sport but rather requires the active participation of each and every individual. What these social media platforms have done is that they have taken away the avenue of any concrete action from the people and replaced it with a fake, self-defined sense of achievement and satisfaction associated with posting status, tweets on X or liking a particular post, e.g., you go to your social media account and post something against racism, like a tweet against extremism. You have stoked your ego and feel self-conceited that you have already performed your part of the duty by liking that tweet on X, which says, “Every human, irrespective of race, colour or religion, should be respected.” The real political participation involving the arduous task of mobilizing people for a cause, pressurizing [authorities], going to the legislature for lawmaking, going to the courts, and getting a law passed to bring about a social change is actually a hard thing, and Gen-Z settles for something easier and within their comfort zone. They pick a screen, log in and post something to their accounts about it, liking all the relevant posts, retweeting those, and that’s all. These online platforms have transformed, if not killed, the concept of participatory democracy, where the only participation left is limited to a few clicks and taps on screens.
+
+The unfamiliar market of ideas
+The classic liberal concept of a free market of ideas is also failing democracy due to the rise of technology and social media. The notion that good ideas always outcompete the bad ones in democracy has proved to be farcical; rather, studies show that these social media platforms have become a cesspool of lies, disinformation, and propaganda. And these not only fare well in this online market of ideas but also outperform the true information all the time. It’s not that these platforms like Meta, X, or Google are inherently evil, but rather it’s their business model that is architected in this way; the more activity, engagement and debate there, the more they get monetized. The physician and author, Hans Rosling, in his book Factfulness, talks about a shrewd play of evolution that controls this, known as the fear instinct and the negativity instinct, which implies that normal and good is bland for human beings and always overtaken by something that is negative, sensational or anything that manipulates or plays with our fears and arouses emotions. The liberal notion of a free market of ideas is incompatible with human psychology; we are operated, not compatible with human psychology; we are operated, controlled and manipulated by our fears and emotions controlled and manipulated by our fears and emotions...
+...these take over our rational decision-making.**
+
+We are experiencing a revolutionary change; the notion of democracy, which has been evolving from the times of the Greeks, is indeed witnessing yet another big change in the age of technological disruptions. What happens in the future is to be determined by us, whether the governments take these private individuals and corporations under their control, taking down their personalized, selective regulation of free speech and letting the classical liberal idea of a free market of ideas prevail, or letting these tech giants control and decide what things can be said and who is “appropriate” to exercise this freedom. In the later case, the future of the world will be in the hands of a dozen people like Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg and other tech entrepreneurs, who will decide and influence our voting behaviours. It will be a major downgrade from democracy being all about people to democracy by the Mark, for the Musk, and of the Steve.

data/Indonesia's_Pancasila_Philosophy/Indonesia's Pancasila Philosophy.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
+Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim-majority nation, is a multicultural country having significant cultural, ethnic, religious, and linguistic diversity, ranging from the daily Hindu rituals practiced on the island of Bali to the grandeur of Islamic sharia law in Aceh (Sumatra) or the semi-nomadic hunter-gatherer lifestyles of the Mentawai people. The archipelago's governing philosophy is based on the foundation of Pancasila, a philosophical theory composed of five principles that make it stand as a unique example of how national unity is maintained through shared foundational beliefs.
+
+Background
+Soon after the independence of Indonesia, various regions experienced separate political and economic histories which still show in the current regional dynamics. This heterogeneity required a national framework to bind the country together. To build the foundation of the country’s unity, Soekarno, the leader of the independence movement, presented his speech to the United Nations (UN).
+
+Indonesian struggle for independence from the Dutch colonialists and the country's first president, Soekarno, introduced Pancasila to the world. This is a set of five guiding principles that shape the nation’s governance, values, and social structure and continue to be deeply embedded in its educational and civic systems.
+
+The Five Pillars of Pancasila
+
+Belief in One Supreme God (Ketuhanan yang Maha Esa):
+This pillar highlights the importance of spirituality and religion in the Indonesian state. While Indonesia is predominantly Muslim, this principle ensures that all religious practices are respected, creating a society that harmonizes faith and humanity.
+
+Just and Civilized Humanity (Kemanusiaan yang Adil dan Beradab):
+This principle focuses on the fair and humane treatment of individuals, advocating for justice, compassion, and civility. It reflects the nation’s commitment to upholding human dignity and fostering empathy within society.
+
+3. Unity of Indonesia (Persatuan Indonesia):
+With over 17,000 islands and numerous ethnic and religious groups, Indonesia’s unity pillar promotes the idea that national identity should supersede regional or cultural differences. This concept fortifies the nation’s motto, Bhinneka Tunggal Ika (Unity in Diversity), reinforcing that Indonesia’s strength lies in embracing its vast diversity while maintaining a shared national identity.
+
+Democracy through Deliberation (Kerakyatan yang Dipimpin oleh Hikmat Kebijaksanaan dalam Permusyawaratan/Perwakilan):
+This pillar emphasizes a unique form of democracy rooted in deliberation and consultation. Decisions are to be made collectively, considering the voices of representatives who embody the wisdom of the people. This principle seeks to balance democratic participation with wise and inclusive decision-making, integrating cultural values into governance.
+
+Social Justice for All (Keadilan Sosial bagi Seluruh Rakyat Indonesia):
+The final pillar focuses on ensuring equitable opportunities and resources for all citizens, promoting social and economic justice. It underscores policies that aim to reduce inequality, support sustainable development, and uplift marginalized communities. This commitment to social welfare is seen as essential for long-term stability and prosperity.
+
+Lessons for Pakistan
+For Pakistan, understanding the structure and influence of Pancasila offers valuable insights. In Pakistan, there is ethnic diversity. The euphoria surrounding the independence movement obscured certain ethnic and geographical divisions. But as the movement's initial exhilaration passed, regional and racial divisions reappeared. They were developing a sense of political engagement among many ethnic groups within a democratic and participatory framework that proved to be a complex undertaking. With time, ethnic and linguistic variety emerged as the most challenging political and social issues that significantly influenced the character and course of Pakistani politics. The country is still facing numerous problems, ranging from regional disparities to a fragile democratic system. Besides these challenges, Pakistan continues to experience polarization that hampers its ability to evolve as a modern, stable, and prosperous state. A lack of consensus on vital issues such as a shared national identity, governance, and national integrity has fueled social polarization, which has further exacerbated existing sectarianism and ethnic conflicts. Violence is one of the main issues in Pakistan, and over the years, has created various anarchical situations in the country. By following these principles, people with different thoughts or ways of thinking, and provinces, can work collectively to boost Pakistan’s growth.
+
+Conclusion
+In conclusion, Indonesia’s Pancasila stands as an example of how core principles can guide a nation towards cohesive governance and peaceful coexistence. While it is essential to consider the criticisms of such a system, the broader lesson lies in how shared national ethics can support unity and resilience in a diverse society. Pakistan’s future requires unity, where the strength of its diversity becomes the foundation of its progress. By unifying in its diversity, strengthening its social fabric, and taking pride in its shared identity, Pakistan can overcome its challenges and unlock its true potential, emerging as a beacon of hope and progress for the entire region and the world at large.

data/Pakistan's_Semiconductor_Ambitions/Pakistan's Semiconductor Ambitions.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,98 @@
+With the rise of digital technologies, AI, IoT, and 5G, the demand for semiconductors is skyrocketing. Although Pakistan’s semiconductor industry is still in its early stages, it has the potential to grow, making the country well-positioned to capitalize on this trend. It is highly encouraging that the Pakistan government is developing a strategy to export integrated circuit design services, aiming to boost the skills of students and young professionals and generate foreign exchange by entering the multibillion-dollar chip design and semiconductor industry. As considerable work has already been undertaken in this vital sector, the need is to build upon that to establish Pakistan’s semiconductor industry on a firmer footing.
+
+The global semiconductor industry is thriving at an enormous pace. With a continued surge in AI-related demand and recovery in electronic production, the global revenue of this industry is projected to grow 14% in 2025 to total $717 billion, and $1 trillion by 2030. However, this industry is currently dominated by companies from the United States, Taiwan, China, South Korea, and Japan. Although Pakistan’s share in the global semiconductor industry is negligible at the moment, there is a lot of potential for Pakistan to reap the benefits this sector offers.
+
+What are semiconductors?
+Often referred to as ‘chips,’ semiconductors are the electronic ‘engines’ underlying almost all technology applications, and hence a significant proportion of regional, national, and global industry development, economic performance, and growth. These are the key enablers of modern electronics and are responsible for the advances made in communications, healthcare, agriculture, transportation, energy, computing, and so much more. Today’s semiconductor technology has greatly affected our world and increased our quality of life in countless ways. We now have the Internet of Things (IoT), Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), and 5G, to name just a few.
+
+Scientifically, semiconductors are materials with electrical properties that fall between those of conductors (like metals) and insulators (like rubber). They have a unique ability to conduct electricity under certain conditions while acting as insulators under others. They are sometimes referred to as integrated circuits (ICs) or microchips made from pure elements, typically silicon or germanium.
+
+How are they made?
+Semiconductors are made from a variety of raw materials, including silicon, germanium, gallium arsenide, and indium phosphide. These materials are processed and purified to create a crystalline structure, which forms the foundation for building semiconductor devices such as transistors, diodes, and ICs. Other raw materials used in the manufacture of semiconductors include impurities such as boron and phosphorus for doping – a process whereby small amounts of impurities are added to these types of elements, causing large changes in the conductivity of the material – as well as metals for interconnects, insulators for isolation, and various chemicals for cleaning and etching.
+
+How do they work?
+Most semiconductors are composed of crystals made of several materials. To better understand how semiconductors work, we need to first understand atoms and how electrons organize themselves within the atom. Electrons arrange themselves in layers called shells inside an atom. The outermost shell in the atom is known as a valence shell.
+
+The electrons in this valence shell are the ones that form bonds with neighboring atoms. Such bonds are called covalent bonds. Most conductors have just one electron in the valence shell. Semiconductors, on the other hand, typically have four electrons in their valence shell. However, if atoms nearby are made of the same valence, electrons may bind with the valence electrons of other atoms. Whenever that happens, atoms organize themselves into crystal structures. We make most semiconductors with such crystals, mainly with silicon crystals.
+
+Types
+Semiconductors are divided into two categories: intrinsic semiconductors and extrinsic semiconductors.
+
+1. Intrinsic semiconductors
+Intrinsic (meaning inherent and natural) semiconductors, also referred to as pure or undoped, are flawless crystals free of other elements’ flaws and impurities. All semiconductor materials, including those doped with other components, have intrinsic features, with the doping components introducing other desired qualities.
+
+2. Extrinsic semiconductors
+An extrinsic semiconductor is divided into two types:
+i. N-type semiconductor, which carries current mainly in the form of negatively charged electrons, similar to the conduction of current in a wire.
+ii. P-type semiconductor, which carries current predominantly as electron deficiencies called holes.
+
+A hole has a positive electric charge, equal and opposite to the charge on an electron. In a semiconductor material, the flow of holes occurs in a direction opposite to the flow of electrons.
+
+The conductivity of semiconductors can be improved with the help of a small number of suitable atoms known as the impurity. The process that involves adding impurities to the pure semiconductor is called doping. Generally, one atom in 10^7 will be replaced by a dopant atom in a doped semiconductor.
+
+Applications
+There are infinite applications where these can be applied to not only improve our lives but to save our lives. Some real-life applications of semiconductors are as under:
+
+i. Consumer electronics
+Semiconductors form the foundation of modern electronic devices such as phones, laptops, refrigerators, computers, smartphones, and televisions. Silicon is the most widely used semiconductor material and is crucial for manufacturing ICs and microchips. These components are essential for processing and storing information, enabling the functioning of electronic gadgets. They are also used to make memory devices.
+
+ii. Energy generation
+Semiconductor-based solar cells convert sunlight directly into electricity through the photovoltaic effect. Silicon-based photovoltaic cells are the most common type used in solar panels. When sunlight hits the semiconductor material, it excites electrons, generating an electric current. This clean and renewable energy source has revolutionized how we generate electricity and reduce our reliance on fossil fuels.
+
+iii. LEDs
+Light-emitting diodes (LEDs) are semiconductor devices that emit light when an electric current passes through them. The LEDs are highly energy-efficient and have replaced the traditional incandescent and fluorescent lights in various applications, including residential lighting, automotive headlights, and streetlights.
+The semiconductor material determines the colour of emitted light, making the LEDs versatile for the different lighting needs.
+
+iv. Transistors
+Transistors are semiconductor devices that amplify or switch electronic signals. Transistors are used as microcontrollers, switches, and digital logic circuits. Most of the transistors are made using silicon. However, germanium and gallium arsenide are two other options of semiconductors that are used in transistors.
+
+v. RFID tags
+Radiofrequency Identification (RFID) tags are used to check in and check out in metro stations and are used in contactless payment and electronic toll collection. The semiconductors receive data in the form of radio signals and process the information.
+
+vi. Defense systems
+In defense systems, semiconductors are used in drone technology, radar systems, and navigation systems. They are integral components in radar systems, which detect and track aircraft, missiles, ships and other objects. Semiconductor-based radar systems provide long-range detection capabilities, high-resolution imaging and advanced signal processing for target identification and tracking.
+
+Role in global geopolitics
+
+i. US-China rivalry
+The United States has imposed export controls and sanctions to restrict China's access to advanced semiconductor technologies, aiming to curb its rise in critical sectors like AI, 5G and military applications. This has escalated tensions between the two nations, with semiconductors becoming a focal point in the broader US-China trade and tech war. The US aims to regain dominance in semiconductor manufacturing, which has largely shifted to Asia, particularly Taiwan and South Korea. Taiwan’s TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) is the world’s leading producer of advanced semiconductors.
+The Taiwanese geopolitical position is highly sensitive, with China considering Taiwan part of its territory and the US viewing it as a critical partner for technology and defence. Any disruption in Taiwan's semiconductor production due to geopolitical conflict could have catastrophic effects on global tech industries.
+
+ii. South Korea and Japan’s role
+South Korean and Japanese semiconductor firms are major players in the global supply chain. South Korea faces pressure from both the US and China to align with their respective tech policies, while Japan has strengthened cooperation with the US to secure critical semiconductor materials.
+
+iii. Europe’s strategic autonomy
+The European Union is seeking to reduce its dependence on Asia for semiconductors by boosting local production through its “Digital Compass” initiative. Europe is also looking to develop strategic partnerships with the US to strengthen supply chain resilience.
+
+iv. China’s semiconductor ambitions
+China has made self-reliance in semiconductors a top national priority as part of its “Made in China 2025” strategy. It has significantly increased investment in domestic semiconductor production and chip design to reduce dependence on US technologies.
+
+v. Global market and Pakistan’s options
+The market for chip-incorporating equipment is estimated to be at least $4 trillion annually, yet Pakistan's share is less than $50 million. Pakistan's semiconductor industry is in its nascent phase. Although experts believe Pakistan has the potential to generate $4 billion annually, progress has been painfully slow.
+
+In Pakistan, interest in building a chip industry began during Imran Khan's government when Pakistan turned to China to start its industry, and provincial governments approved Rs41.75 million in funding for establishing chip design centers in eight universities in Punjab. A roadmap, the Pakistan National Semiconductor Plan (PNSP), was launched, preparing the country's talent and human capital and starting with the designing, assembly, and testing of chips in the first phase before moving towards more advanced and expensive manufacturing phases.
+
+Plans were to build an indigenous designing and manufacturing semiconductor industry with a resilient supply line until 2047. While some Chinese companies had shown interest, instability and economic crises created hurdles for smooth progress. The new government has allocated Rs. 190 million to create the NUST Chip Design Center. However, this level of dedication is not enough to build a sophisticated technology base, which needs huge investment, the government’s consistent focus, and strong political will.
+
+Limited government interest and investments hinder progress in Pakistan’s semiconductor industry. Despite these obstacles, private companies and the startup surge in the semiconductor industry show promise. With 100,000 STEM graduates entering the workforce annually and support from its industry-related diaspora, Pakistan possesses significant potential.
+
+The way forward
+The 'Pakistan National Semiconductor Plan' has given eight recommendations, consisting of three broader policies and five specific short-term (2025 plan) recommendations, which propose investments of approximately $240 million, including private, public, and private-public partnership (PPP) into the semiconductor sector.
+
+The three broad recommendations include:
+
+Establish the national semiconductor goal that Pakistan must ensure accessibility to all critical semiconductor technologies by 2050.
+Establish a cabinet-level task force, headed by a czar, to implement these goals with short- (2025), medium- (2030), and strategic long-term plans (2050).
+Establish offices at key consulates headed by special officers with a specific mandate of growing semiconductor businesses in Pakistan.
+The five specific recommendations include:
+4. Establish a private nonprofit association, the Pakistan Semiconductor Association (PSA), to work with all stakeholders and promote Pakistan’s semiconductor businesses both within and outside of the country.
+5. Invest in universities to upgrade semiconductor education and research with PNSP-focused programs in six hubs.
+6. Invest in Advanced Training Institutes (ATI) to train the human resources so that they can productively work in international-level design centres.
+7. Invest to incentivize Chinese and US companies to establish design centres in Pakistan.
+8. Invest in a package and test business as the first step into semiconductor manufacturing.
+
+Conclusion
+In recent years, a growing number of Asian players have made forays into the lucrative domain. However, Pakistan is still lagging in this sector. Nonetheless, the industry can bring in up to US$4 billion in forex to Pakistan each year if the country can get 100,000 professionals involved in the next 5 to 6 years. Keeping in view the national economy and security's reliance on semiconductors, the government needs to provide tax incentives and other facilitating programmes to foreign companies, especially Chinese and US investors, to encourage them to set up chip designing centres in Pakistan.
+
+
+

data/Pakistan_in_Choppy_Waters/Pakistan in Choppy Waters.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+History gives us numerous examples to understand this cyclic phenomenon of hardship and ease. India, for example, went into a serious economic crisis, which was triggered by a balance-of-payments deficit due to excessive reliance on imports and other external factors, in the 1990s. The then-Prime Minister of India, P. V. Narasimha Rao, and his finance minister, Manmohan Singh, implemented robust economic reforms, including the elimination of restrictions on foreign investment, allowing foreign companies to bring modern technology and industrial development practices to India. The government also reduced import tariffs, opened up the public sector to private enterprise, and cut back on state spending. The leadership's clarity of vision in goals and decisive actions helped India overcome the economic downturn. Resultantly, the country’s GDP per capita grew to be about $2,300 in 2022 with no IMF program since the 1990s.
+
+Similarly, when Japan was hit by atomic bombs in 1945, around 220,000 people lost their lives in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Many of the survivors would face deadly diseases like cancer or other terrible side effects from the radiation. Apart from the heavy death toll, the country faced a financial loss of around $55 billion. In spite of such terrible conditions, the Japanese economy recovered at an incredible speed. The recovery was so miraculous that it came to be known as the Japanese Economic Miracle. Although Japan implemented measures like cuts on government expenditure, promoting creative entrepreneurship, clever marketing strategies, and comparatively free global trade, what helped Japan materialize post-war economic growth was its reliance on the good old-fashioned values of quality and diligence.
+
+Unlike other countries in the region, Pakistan is still facing severe hardships. The topmost challenge is the economic crisis, which is visible in the form of a back-breaking inflation rate of more than 25%. Rising inflation is causing a decline in people's purchasing power as the prices of food, fuel, and electricity continue to rise unabatedly. Around 40% of the country's population remains below the poverty line. The economic hardship has resulted in a great deal of discontent and annoyance, which is manifested in ways such as protests, strikes, riots, and acts of violence.
+
+Another challenge is terrorism. Although terror attacks have decreased in number and intensity, terrorism is by no means over. In fact, recent reports show a concerning growth in insurgents' activities and violence. Due to terrorism, thousands of civilians have lost their lives, and foreign direct investment has undergone a steep decline. In fact, Pakistan had to remain on the FATF grey list for four years, i.e., from 2018 to 2022. Not only this, Pakistan also lost its soft diplomacy avenues like tourism and sports, which portray the soft images of any country. To cap it all, Pakistan is losing its grip on its most valuable resource, that is, youth. Given the economic uncertainty and poor law and order situation, a large number of youth look towards foreign countries to make their dreams come true. In 2023 alone, more than 1.62 million people, primarily young men and women, left Pakistan for Gulf and European nations in search of greener pastures. Brain drain at such a massive scale mars the prospects of betterment of the country.
+
+Several reasons can be quoted for Pakistan's hardships; however, political instability, lack of independent policymaking, and rising social insecurity top them all.
+
+To begin with, political instability has been a trademark of Pakistan for decades. Despite the return of democracy in 2008, Pakistan has witnessed the ouster of prime ministers at frequent intervals. Long marches and sit-ins have long kept those in corridors of power preoccupied. Such events have provided governments a reason to shed the burden of their responsibilities and blame their opponents for the declining performance of institutions. Due to the volatile political environment, policies for economic revival have remained inconsistent, and IMF loans have become the norm of the day.
+
+Moreover, policymaking has not remained independent ever since the inception of the country. Pakistan has been used by international powers for their vested interests. Examples include the training of jihadists on Pakistani soil in the 1980s to oust the USSR from Afghanistan and paving the way for the US to invade Afghanistan after 9/11. It is because of these botched policies that Pakistan has been facing extremism, terrorism, and social unrest for years. Finally, democracy seems to have failed to provide social security to the citizens of this country. Despite paying hefty taxes, basic facilities like education and health remain inaccessible to the common man. On the one hand, job opportunities in public sector organizations have reduced sharply. On the other hand, private businesses and freelancing fall victim to electricity and internet outages. In such an insecure environment, the youth feel it convenient to move abroad by hook or by crook.
+
+While the challenges are severe, there is always a silver lining in the cloud. Pakistan can also come out of hard times, and its citizens can enjoy peace and prosperity if democracy is strengthened, prudent policies are formulated and implemented, and youth are prioritized. The most important overarching step among all is solidifying democracy in the country. Democracy thrives when all the pillars of state perform their duties as defined by the constitution and avoid overstepping into each other's domains. Doing so will enable the people of Pakistan to elect leadership that truly represents them.
+
+Next, governments must design prudent policies that are long-term and serve the interests of Pakistan only. In this regard, dialogue should be used as a tool to resolve bilateral and domestic issues such as with India and in Balochistan, respectively. Likewise, ill-conceived agreements such as the ones with Independent Power Producers (IPPs) should also be revised or concluded through dialogue in the interest of the common people of Pakistan. Improvement of the image of Pakistan will bring in FDI and attract global tech giants to invest here. All the above-mentioned steps will help create a sustainable environment for Pakistani youth. Youth will be able to utilize their talents for the socio-economic betterment of all and sundry.
+
+Conclusion
+In conclusion, the cyclic nature of life, marked by hardships and ease, is a universal truth that has shaped the destinies of nations throughout history. Pakistan, too, has experienced its share of trials and tribulations, from economic instability to political turmoil. However, the nation's resilience and potential for greatness cannot be underestimated. By strengthening democratic institutions, implementing sound economic policies, and prioritizing the needs of its youth, Pakistan can overcome its current challenges and embark on a path of sustainable development. The country's rich human capital and strategic geographic location offer immense opportunities for growth and prosperity. Nature has promised that with hardships comes ease. But will Pakistan rise to its full potential, or will it continue to be held back by the shackles of the past? The answer lies in the hands of its leaders and its people.
+

data/Preserving_Pakistan's_Cultural_Heritage/Preserving Pakistan's Cultural Heritage.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
+Cultural heritage is the soul of a nation and a bridge that connects its past with its present while shaping its future as well. In Pakistan, this heritage is a treasure trove of ancient wonders, vibrant traditions and unique customs. Each element of this legacy serves as a reminder of who we are and the heights we can achieve.
+
+Pakistan is blessed with a wealth of historical landmarks. The ruins of Mohenjo-Daro echo the grandeur of the Indus Valley Civilization, while the Buddhist relics in Taxila narrate timeless stories of peace and wisdom. The majestic Badshahi Mosque in Lahore stands as a testament to Mughal magnificence. These monuments are far more than just structures; they are fragments of history frozen in time. Cultural heritage, however, extends beyond architecture. It pulses through the melodies of music, the rhythm of dance and the depth of poetry. The soulful verses of poets like Bulleh Shah and Shah Abdul Latif Bhittai have transcended centuries, resonating with audiences to this day. Traditional dances, such as the Pashtun Attan and Sindhi Jhumar, foster a sense of community, while handicrafts like Balochi embroidery and Multani pottery showcase artistic mastery.
+
+This cultural richness is a unifying force, highlighting the beauty of Pakistan's diversity. Each province adds its unique colour to the national tapestry. Punjab is known for its joyous Basant festival and Sufi shrine celebrations, and Sindh for its vibrant Ajrak and Tharparkar’s folk melodies. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa fosters soulful Pashto poetry and exemplifies resilience, while Balochistan boasts ancient craftsmanship and storytelling traditions.
+
+Despite its value, Pakistan's cultural heritage faces many significant threats: Urbanization has engulfed many historical sites, while climate change and pollution have taken a toll on ancient landmarks. Neglect and insufficient funding exacerbate these challenges, and many traditions are slowly fading as younger generations lose touch with their roots.
+
+Protecting cultural heritage is not just a moral obligation; it is vital for national identity, pride, and even economic growth. Heritage tourism is a thriving industry worldwide, and countries like Italy, Egypt and Turkey have built robust economies around their cultural attractions. Pakistan has the same potential. Its UNESCO World Heritage Sites, such as Mohenjo-Daro, Taxila and the Makli Necropolis, have universal appeal. With improved infrastructure, these sites could attract countless visitors. Essential upgrades, including better roads, accommodations and guided tours, would greatly enhance the tourism experience.
+
+Promotion plays a crucial role in drawing global attention. Pakistan must showcase its rich heritage through social media campaigns, documentaries and international cultural events. Modern tools like virtual reality and digital archives can make these treasures accessible to a global audience. Not only would this generate revenue, but it would also improve Pakistan's global image. Cultural festivals offer another opportunity to foster unity and attract tourists. Events like the Lok Virsa Mela celebrate Pakistan's diversity and provide a platform for artisans and performers. These festivals also bridge the gap between urban and rural communities. Supporting local craftsmen is equally important. These individuals preserve traditions through their artistry, and financial assistance or training can ensure their survival. Exporting traditional crafts like carpets, jewellery and pottery can also boost the economy while sharing Pakistan’s stories with the world.
+
+Education is a key element in preserving heritage. Schools should integrate local history and culture into their curricula. Field trips to historical sites and participation in traditional activities can instil pride and a sense of responsibility in younger generations.
+
+Cultural heritage also promotes harmony, transcending ethnic and linguistic barriers. Folk music and dance are universal languages that unite people, while festivals create bonds that are stronger than differences. Tourism, in turn, fosters international goodwill. Visitors leave with lasting memories of Pakistan’s hospitality, becoming ambassadors of its charm. This soft power is invaluable for enhancing Pakistan’s standing on the world stage.
+
+Despite its immense potential, developing foreign tourism in Pakistan is a formidable challenge. Concerns about safety, inadequate infrastructure and poorly maintained roads deter travellers. Airports often fail to meet global standards, and much of Pakistan’s beauty remains hidden from the world. Overcoming these hurdles requires decisive action, including enhanced security, modernized infrastructure and strategic promotion. Only then can Pakistan truly claim its place as a global tourist destination. In 2022, the travel and tourism sector contributed 5.9% to Pakistan’s GDP and generated 4.2 million jobs, as reported by the World Bank Group and the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC).
+
+Despite these figures, the sector’s potential remains underutilized, considering the country’s rich array of tourist destinations. Visitor spending in Pakistan reached USD 16 billion in 2022, with projections indicating this could grow to USD 30 billion by 2033, signalling significant opportunities for future expansion in the tourism industry.
+
+No doubt, preserving cultural heritage is about more than safeguarding the past. It is about honouring ancestors, inspiring future generations and building a bridge to tomorrow. By cherishing its cultural wealth, Pakistan can achieve not only economic progress but also social harmony. Heritage is more than history; it is identity, pride and limitless potential. Pakistan’s cultural heritage is its most valuable asset. Let us protect, celebrate and share it with the world.
+

data/Tackling_Informal_Economy/Tackling Informal Economy.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,53 @@
+The informal sector's contribution to Pakistan's economy is remarkable, as it adds a handsome volume of approximately $661 billion, tantamount to 35.5 percent of GDP. The growing size of the informal economy in Pakistan is a major cause for much consternation for our policymakers who are trying to boost tax revenues and widen documentation, primarily through administrative measures.
+
+Informality is also associated with higher income inequality, poverty, and less progress toward Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The informal sector is, on average, less productive than the formal sector because it tends to employ more low-skilled workers, has more restricted access to funding, services, and markets, and lacks economies of scale.
+
+A recent joint study by the Small and Medium Enterprises Development Authority (SMEDA) and the International Labor Organization provides fresh, and disturbing, evidence of the informal economy's continuing growth. The total size of the informal sector, growing over time, is currently projected to be an enormous $457 billion, in sharp contrast to the size of the formal economy, which was officially estimated at $340 billion in 2023.
+
+The informal economy, also known as the "shadow economy," "underground economy," or "unregistered economy," refers to economic activities that are not regulated by the government and are typically not subject to standard labor laws or tax codes. The size and characteristics of the informal economy vary widely across countries and regions, but it is estimated that around 61% of the world's workforce is employed in the informal sector of the economy. It is contributing to employment, income generation, and overall economic growth.
+
+The informal economy is a critical source of employment in many developing countries, particularly in areas with limited formal job opportunities. It provides a safety net for people facing unemployment or those not having access to formal-sector jobs. In fact, in many regions, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Latin America, the informal economy represents a significant portion of the labor force. Nearly 75% of the total labor force in Pakistan is engaged in informal sector employment.
+
+The ILO estimates that the informal sector employs about 60–70% of the workforce in low-income countries, and in some parts of the world, it accounts for up to 90% of total employment in rural areas. In India, it is estimated that the informal sector accounts for 50% of GDP, while in countries like Mexico and Brazil, the informal economy represents about 30–40% of total economic output. Pakistan's informal economy has a significant impact on the country's economic growth. As recently documented in a study by the Pakistan Business Council (PBC), informality in the wholesale and retail trade (WRT) sector has significant fiscal implications, especially when compared to the more formalized manufacturing sector. The share of the manufacturing sector in direct taxes amounts to 34.5%, a full 22% greater than its share in GDP. On the other hand, WRT contributes a paltry 2.9% towards direct taxes, 15% less than its share in GDP.
+
+Using FBR data from 2018–19, in rupee terms, a proportionate revenue obligation on the wholesale and retail sector would amount to a minimum of PKR 277 billion, or at least PKR 234 billion greater than its current contribution.
+
+A similar imbalance emerges in the domain of domestic sales tax collection. Estimates of WRT drawing on non-manufacturing, non-importing business sales tax returns from the Association of Persons (AOPs) and individuals show that the overall percentage contribution to domestic sales tax collection amounts to a negligible 1.65%. In contrast, the manufacturing sector's contribution exceeds 75%.
+
+A major hitch of the informal economy is the loss of tax revenue. Informal businesses and workers typically do not pay taxes, which creates significant gaps in government fiscal income. The OECD (2024) estimates that in many countries, especially developing nations, the informal economy contributes to tax evasion and reduces the tax-to-GDP ratio. For example, in South Africa, the informal sector is responsible for an estimated 5–10% of lost tax revenue annually. Similarly, in Kenya, the government loses up to 8% of GDP due to informality. This lack of taxation limits the government's ability to provide public services and infrastructure and hampers overall development.
+
+At present, only 300,000 of an estimated 3.5 million retailers are actively filing tax returns. The newly proposed scheme aims to bring the remaining 3.2 million retailers, primarily located in major cities, into the tax net. This initiative represents a significant step towards expanding the tax base and enhancing revenue collection.
+
+The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) introduced a special procedure to levy tax on small traders and shopkeepers, known as the "Tajir Dost (Special) Procedure, 2024." In this context, shopkeepers include wholesalers, dealers, retailers, manufacturer-cum-retailers, importer-cum-retailers, or such persons who combine the activity of retail and wholesale with any other business activity or other person in the supply chain of goods. Advance tax is to be paid on a monthly basis through a computerized payment process. The first installment was to be paid on 15 July 2024, and additional installments were to be due on the 15th day of each month thereafter. The formula calculating advance tax will be prescribed; however, every person shall be liable to pay a minimum advance tax of PKR 1,200 per year.
+
+A person’s advance tax payment can be reduced by 25% of the total amount if the person:
+
+Pays the whole or the remaining balance of the advance tax for the applicable tax year in a lump sum before any due dates.
+
+Files the income tax return for the tax year 2023, if the return has not yet been filed, before the due date for the first monthly installment.
+
+The FBR point of sale (POS) system refers to a specific initiative in Pakistan aimed at integrating retail sales with the tax system. This system is part of the government’s efforts to enhance tax compliance and reduce tax evasion by directly linking retail transactions to the tax authority.
+
+Tier-1 retailers are required to integrate all their POS with FBR’s computerized system. Tier-1 POS is defined in section 2(43A) of the Sales Tax Act, 1990, to be a person who falls in any of the following categories:
+
+A retailer operating as a unit of a national or international chain of stores;
+A retailer operating in an air-conditioned shopping mall, plaza, or center, excluding kiosks;
+A retailer whose cumulative electricity bill during the immediately preceding twelve consecutive months exceeds Rs. 12,00,000;
+A wholesaler-cum-retailer engaged in the bulk import and supply of consumer goods on a wholesale basis to the retailers as well as on retail basis to the general body of the consumers;
+A retailer whose shop measures 1000 square feet or more in area.
+Key Features of FBR POS include:
+Real-time Data Transmission: The FBR POS system transmits sales data in real-time to the FBR, allowing for better monitoring of retail transactions.
+Tax Identification: Retailers using the system must register and obtain a unique tax identification number, which links their sales to their tax records.
+Benefits of POS systems:
+Compliance: It helps ensure that retailers comply with tax regulations by making it harder to underreport sales.
+Incentives for Retailers: In some cases, retailers using the FBR POS system may benefit from tax rebates or incentives for compliance.
+User-friendly Interface: Many FBR-compliant POS systems are designed to be user-friendly, helping retailers manage transactions easily.
+Improved Tax Collection: Helps increase the tax base by capturing data from previously unregistered businesses.
+Enhanced Transparency: Reduces the chances of tax evasion and enhances accountability.
+Better Business Insights: Retailers can gain insights into their sales patterns and inventory management.
+FBR has registered 5,026 businesses under the Tier-1 category. The registered companies have 31,119 POS and 22,657 branches. Pakistan has over 3.5 million traders; only 58,802 are registered for Tier-1, below 0.5 million of them have submitted tax returns during the past two financial years. The majority of businesses have not yet registered for the sales or income tax. Businesses in the informal economy remain outside the tax net and other regulations.
+
+According to the FBR Year Book 2018-19, a major contributor in direct taxes is the manufacturing sector, with around 34.5% share, services sector about 24.2%, and share of WRT is "2.9% and 2.3%, respectively," which is, in fact, very low as against the existing potential in the country. Wholesale and retail trade sectors together paid Rs. 48.2 billion: Large Retail Trade (7.9 billion), Small Retail Trade (9.7 billion), and Wholesale Trade (25.1 billion). The government needs to present a simple and low-rate tax scheme to tap the real tax potential of the retail sector.
+
+According to estimates, Pakistan’s retail market size in 2023 was $300 billion. By applying a market size tax of 4% and an income tax of 1% on gross turnover, total collection from the retail sector alone comes to US$15 billion. To keep that in perspective, the FBR collected total net sales tax on goods of Rs. 2,591 billion in 2022–23 and managed a total tax collection of Rs. 7,164 billion. Pakistan is struggling hard to overcome a monstrous fiscal deficit, which may reach a record high at over 9% of GDP in this fiscal year.
+

data/Technical_Education_in_Pakistan/Technical Education in Pakistan.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+Technical education is a vital component in the development of any country's economy and society, and Pakistan is no exception. However, technical education in Pakistan is facing several challenges that need to be addressed through serious planning and implementation. The following are some of the latest figures and facts related to technical education in Pakistan:
+
+Lack of quality institutions: According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, there are around 1,600 technical and vocational training institutes in the country, but only a few of them meet international standards. Moreover, the enrollment rate in technical education institutions is only 5.8%, which is lower than the world average of 9.2%.
+
+Outdated curriculum: A recent report by the Higher Education Commission (HEC) revealed that the curriculum in technical education institutions is outdated and does not meet the needs of the current job market. This is a major reason why students graduating from these institutions are ill-prepared for the workforce.
+
+Government support: The government’s allocation for technical and vocational education and training in the current fiscal year is PKR 6.98 billion (USD 43.7 million), which is only 0.1% of the total budget. This is a clear indication that the government has not invested enough resources in technical education.
+
+Lack of trained and qualified teachers: According to a report by the Pakistan Council for Science and Technology, there is a shortage of qualified and trained teachers in technical education institutions. This is a major challenge as it affects the quality of education being provided to students.
+
+Demand-supply gap: There is a significant gap between the demand and supply of skilled workers in Pakistan. According to the World Economic Forum, the country ranks 122nd out of 137 countries in terms of its capacity to retain talent. This means that many skilled workers are leaving the country, which is negatively impacting the economy.
+
+Pakistan has several organizational bodies that oversee blue-collar training, like the Technical Education and Vocational Training Authority (TEVTA), National Vocational and Technical Training Commission (NAVTTC), Punjab Skills Development Fund (PSDF), and the Punjab Vocational Training Council (PVTC). The vocational training structure, at least on paper, appears to be good enough, but in reality, the country has a very shabby and fragmented vocational training system. Most of Pakistan’s blue-collar workers learn their work informally and have little to no formal academic education. Whatever vocational structure there is, it has to be democratized and spread to the less developed areas of the country and more investment is needed to hire and train new apprentices.
+Another problem is the acceptance of the training credentials of blue-collar workers abroad. While Pakistani university graduates can apply to foreign universities for advanced training on their own, and later find jobs there, it is difficult for Pakistani workers to get the qualifications of locally trained workers accepted. Also, bilateral agreements between Pakistani and foreign governments are needed to export manpower to developed economies. The quality of our workers must speak for itself, and only then will there be more demand for our vocational workers. Such trained people can open up new businesses, develop new skills and disseminate this valuable knowledge to society at large.
+To address these challenges, the government needs to take several steps, including:
+
+Investing more resources in technical education: The government must allocate more funds to technical education and ensure that institutions are adequately equipped and staffed.
+
+Updating the curriculum: The curriculum in technical education institutions must be updated to reflect the needs of the current job market. This will ensure that students graduating from these institutions are well-prepared for the workforce.
+
+Training and development of teachers: The government should invest in the training and development of teachers to ensure that students receive a quality education.
+
+Encouraging more students to pursue technical education: The government should provide scholarships and other incentives for students to pursue technical education. It should also work to promote technical education in rural areas.
+
+However, to improve the quality of the imparted training, Pakistan, being a less economically developed nation, has to look towards foreign countries for the adoption of an advanced vocational training system. So, from which model can Pakistan learn the most? Compared to Europe, the United States (US) never had a structured and hierarchical guild-based system. This lack of a consolidated vocational training system persists to this very day. In Europe, there are different kinds of vocational training models, which have their roots in the guild system of the Middle Ages. Within Europe, the German model of vocational training is considered exemplary and worth emulating, even by other European countries. Therefore, as an example, this model can be studied by Pakistan’s authorities to organize the local system along modern lines.
+In the end, it can be said that it is very crucial and significant that the Pakistani youth and the upcoming generations of young boys and girls capitalize on the situational demand and adopt the opportunity to play their role in the upbringing of the economy of their country. In that respect, the initial stage is to impart awareness. The utmost step is to make people aware of the deficit, the necessity of this field and how they can contribute to the national cause. If the awareness is imparted, the interest of people in this field, which is not as much popular amongst the nation as the other fields like medicine and engineering are. At any given time in the history of all civilizations, working people have always vastly outnumbered the ruling and financial elite; and it is the responsibility of these elite to inculcate in their respective societies a culture centered around acquiring knowledge and skills. Pakistan’s people are enterprising and resilient, and show great interest in acquiring new skills, as has been made evident by many encouraging examples. However, raw talent is not a substitute for proper industrial skills-based training. To uplift the ever-growing masses socioeconomically and to also incorporate them in the national and global economy, vocational training in Pakistan needs societal acceptance, a modern skill development road map and some much-needed, sustained support from the government and relevant businesses.

data/The_Case_for_Solidarity_Levies/The Case for Solidarity Levies.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,71 @@
+During COP 28 in Dubai (UAE) in November 2023, the Global Solidarity Levies Task Force was launched with an aim to explore feasible, scalable, and sensible options for climate levies. Co-chaired by Barbados, France, and Kenya, it also aims to foster political will around options for progressive levies to support climate and development action, and to bring together coalitions of willing countries to become frontrunners for implementing specific progressive levy options.
+
+The Task Force recently released its progress report, “Scaling Solidarity: Progress on Global Solidarity Levies,” at COP29 (Baku, Azerbaijan), unveiling options for a range of new solidarity levies to bridge the global climate finance gap.
+
+While commenting on the need for such levies, Prof. Laurence Tubiana, co-lead of the Global Solidarity Levies Task Force Secretariat, opines:
+“One of the founding pillars of the Paris Agreement is financial solidarity between developed and developing countries. Such solidarity makes it possible for all countries to gradually raise their national ambitions to achieve the goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C. However, there can be no climate justice without fiscal justice, as all countries are facing the same challenge: how to fund the transition while ensuring that those with the greatest means and the highest emissions pay their fair share.”
+
+The aim of the Global Solidarity Levies Task Force is clear: between now and COP30 in Belem (Brazil), they want to put forward concrete options for global solidarity levies to provide new, predictable, stable, and concessional sources of finance.
+
+Below are extracts from its latest reports on the options being discussed and estimates about how much could be raised.
+
+Shipping
+The IMF recently estimated pricing on international shipping and aviation could raise up to 200 billion a year in revenues by 2035. Even a partial redistribution would provide a large source of predictable climate finance to developing countries, in complement to ODA flows, without amplifying existing debt burdens. The levy that could be closest to being agreed is for shipping, responsible for around 3.0 percent of global emissions, with governments set to debate a series of measures at a meeting of the International Maritime Organization in April next.
+
+Models for a levy include a Pacific islands and Caribbean proposal for a flat rate of $150/tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂), rising every five years. The European Union and Japan favor a levy of $100/tonne in 2027, while countries including Bahamas and Liberia have proposed an initial flat rate of about $18.75/tonne.
+
+Potential revenue generation
+According to an impact study by UNCTAD, a well-to-wake levy of 150-300 per tonne of CO₂ could collect up to 127 billion a year in 2027-2030, while revenues would average 103 billion in 2031-2040 and 36 billion in 2041-2050. A well-to-wake levy at 30-120 a tonne would collect 36 billion a year in 2027-2030 and 47 billion and 13 billion in 2031-2040 and 2041-2050, respectively. In a scenario of full decarbonization by 2050, revenues from a 100 per tonne of CO₂ could amount to over 60 billion per year, according to the World Bank.
+
+b. Aviation
+Aviation accounts for 2.0 percent of global emissions yet is usually free of value-added tax (VAT) or sales taxes. Levies being discussed by the GSLT include kerosene fuel, private jet fuel, luxury tickets, and frequent flyers, which together could generate $19 billion to $164 billion a year.
+
+Around 29 countries already tax aviation fuel through excise duties, carbon levies, or emission permits. The average price among G20 countries in 2021 was $9.5 per tonne. Hurdles to a broader tax include ensuring a level playing field for industry players and overcoming legal barriers.
+
+Potential revenue generation
+According to the ICCT, a levy of $30 on economy seats and $120 on premium class seats with global coverage on domestic and international flights would raise $164 billion per year with global coverage on domestic and international flights, and $58 billion per year when applied only to high-income countries and only international flights.
+
+c. Fossil fuels
+Countries already impose levies on fossil fuels, including indirectly when gasoline is bought at the pump, through VAT, carbon taxes, or emissions trading schemes, or via royalties or taxes on oil companies. Revenues could be generated in the future through a levy on extraction or “windfall” taxes on energy company profits.
+
+A 'Climate Damages Tax' of $5/tonne extracted in 2024
+would generate an estimated $216 billion, a Greenpeace report this year said.
+
+An ActionAid report said a 50 percent tax on the windfall profits of the biggest 14 fossil fuel companies by market value in the two years to July 2023 would have generated around $173 billion.
+
+Potential revenue generation
+a. Extraction levy: The Climate Damages Tax proposal proposes a $5 fee per tonne of CO₂e on the extraction of fossil fuels. Envisioning the implementation of the tax in 2024 with a yearly price increase of $5 per tonne of CO₂e, it is estimated to generate $3.5 trillion between 2024 and 2030 if implemented globally, $900 billion if implemented by OECD countries, and $675 billion if implemented by the G7.
+
+b. Windfall profits: According to ActionAid, a 50-90% tax on windfall profits of the biggest 36 fossil fuel companies between July 2021 and July 2023 globally would have raised between $212 and $382 billion. 
+
+d. Financial transactions
+More than 30 countries have some form of levy on financial transactions, including Britain, France, Italy, and Spain, although agreeing on a cross-border levy has proved tough.
+
+Potential revenue generation:
+The estimated revenues of a financial transaction tax are significant. A 0.1% rate on stocks and bonds instruments and a 0.01% rate on transactions of derivatives globally would raise between $237.9–418.8 billion annually, depending on the level of market reaction and evasion, according to the Austrian Institute of Economic Research.
+
+e. Carbon
+There are currently 75 carbon pricing mechanisms across 83 jurisdictions, of which 36 are structured as emissions trading systems (ETS) and 39 as carbon taxes. In total, they cover 24 percent of global emissions. But most are priced more cheaply than the $40–$80 a tonne needed to keep the world on track to rein in global warming, due to political concern about the impact on households and businesses.
+
+A plan proposed by the International Monetary Fund would see countries agree on a minimum price of $50 a tonne, or $25, $50, and $75 a tonne, varying with the stage of a country’s development. Another option could be to link up existing trading schemes.
+
+Potential revenue generation:
+Total revenues from carbon taxes and ETS in 2023 were $104 billion. ETS account for over 70% of global government carbon pricing revenues. Over half of the revenue collected in 2023 was used to fund climate- and nature-related programs. A $50 carbon price could raise about 0.5–2% of GDP in 2030.
+
+f. Wealth
+The Group of 20 largest economies this year discussed whether to raise taxes on the super-rich. A report backed by current G20 leader Brazil proposed a global minimum tax of 2 percent of wealth for the world’s roughly 3,000 dollar-billionaires, to raise about $250 billion a year. Other options could include changing the threshold at which the tax kicks in and the rate at which it is applied.
+
+g. Crypto
+The report cites research by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that settles on $0.045 per kWh as the amount needed for a corrective tax to make up for the impact crypto mining has on the climate, based on the consequences of the greenhouse gas emissions causing climate change and exacerbating disasters, including storms, droughts, and wildfires.
+
+Taking into account other kinds of air pollution from burning fossil fuels, that tax rises to $0.085 per kWh. Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin are created by computation power driven by energy usage, which creates emissions.
+
+In 2022, Kazakhstan moved to charge crypto miners between 1 and 25 Tenge ($0.002–0.056) per kilowatt hour. A global tax on electricity use of $0.045 per kWh could raise $5.2 billion, the IMF has estimated.
+
+A levy on crypto trading at 0.1% could raise $15.8 billion, while a capital gains tax of 20% could raise up to $323 billion, IMF research shows.
+
+Potential revenue generation:
+Revenue potential from a levy on cryptocurrency transactions could be in the tens of billions annually, potentially varying from $15.8 billion for a 0.1% financial transaction tax to up to $323 billion for an accrual-based capital gains tax of 20% in a boom year, according to the IMF. Alternatively, a specific tax on the electricity use of crypto miners of $0.045 per kWh would reduce cryptocurrency-associated carbon by around 45% and generate revenue of $5.2 billion globally.
+
+Conclusion
+When it comes to additional sources of finance, experts often allude to “innovative finance.” In the case of global solidarity levies, the only innovation required is ambitious leadership across a sufficient base of countries. Let the tenth anniversary of the Paris climate agreement next year be remembered as the moment when we came together as a global community to implement solidarity levies, providing the financial tools necessary to meet the great challenge of our time.

data/The_Decline_of_the_Sole_Superpower/The Decline of the Sole Superpower.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
+America's global dominance has been rooted in several key pillars, which are now evolving amidst a shifting global landscape. The US's dominance rests on the following pillars:
+
+Economic Order and Institutions Led by the US
+The United States has maintained its global dominance throughout history through a unique economic order that is based on capitalism and global economic institutions led by the US. America’s role as a global economic powerhouse was established after the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, which laid the foundation of the modern international economic system. This created a set of economic institutions like the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and World Trade Organization.
+These institutions have been used as a weapon by the US to assert its global dominance. One thing that makes these institutions handicapped is the dominance of the US dollar as the currency of global exchange. The United States has used this tool to engage and maintain its control across the globe. Moreover, the US has been the sole protector of the neoliberal economic order that has given it leverage in the capitalist democracies across the world.
+
+Security Alliances and the Worldwide Military Presence
+American policymakers believe in realism, and they have asserted US's global dominance through realpolitik. Military and security have been the cornerstones of this global dominance. America's list of things pertaining to the matters of national security is long.
+It has worked to form military and security alliances across the world to protect its geopolitical and geostrategic interests. Since the start of the Cold War and throughout its entire course, the US survived due to its powerful military and the security alliances with like-minded partners. Moreover, it was America’s military prowess that interfered in a number of sovereign countries.
+Security alliances like Quad, NATO, I2U2, AUKUS, BECA, and so on have given the US leverage over global affairs. Currently, the US has the most powerful military in the world, with over 450,000 active soldiers deployed in over 135 countries. Thus, America's military power is an important pillar that has made it a global policeman.
+
+Policy of Containment
+The US has often resorted to a containment policy against the countries that challenge its global power status. This policy was employed during the Cold War to prevent the spread of communism and arrest the USSR's growing influence. It proved to be successful, as the US succeeded in not only containing the USSR but also disintegrating it. Thus, this policy helped establish the US's global dominance in the post-Cold War era. Notwithstanding this fact, the world order has now become a multipolar one. But, the US is still following this policy to reap geopolitical and strategic dividends. The US has formed several alliances in various regions of the world to contain its rivals. In the Indo-Pacific, it has partnered with countries like India, Japan, South Korea, and Australia to contain China. Moreover, it also uses the sanctions to contain its rivals, Iran and North Korea being its prime examples. Currently, China, Iran, Russia, and the Global South are leading a new multipolar world order while the US is again engaging across the regions to contain these countries through its partners to maintain its great power status. This containment fear among the countries keeps global US dominance intact.
+
+Hegemony on Technological Innovation
+Another important pillar of America’s global dominance is its near monopoly over technological innovation. Although this monopoly started shaping a long time post-WWII, the United States invested heavily in the research and development sector, fostering a culture of innovation. Government initiatives, academic institutions, and private sector investment converged to establish the US as a global leader in technological advancement. Moreover, the world’s largest tech giants, like Meta, X (formerly Twitter), Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and others, share a common birthplace—the USA. Also, it leads the world in space technology through NASA. Furthermore, America is also leading the world in terms of artificial intelligence and robotics. These technological advancements give it an upper hand in global affairs.
+
+Manoeuvring International Institutions
+The United States has maintained its grip over global power by maneuvering international institutions in its favor. After World War II, it played a pivotal role in establishing international institutions to promote global stability, security, and economic cooperation. And it has historically exercised significant influence within these institutions, shaping their agendas, policies, and decision-making processes. Historically, the US has been notorious for exploiting these institutions, like the United Nations, World Bank, IMF, etc., for upholding its interests and punishing its rivals. Due to America’s excessive influence over these institutions, countries across the world think twice before going into a confrontation mode with the USA.
+
+Challenges to America's Global Dominance
+Today, the role of the US as a global power seems to be in flux. The economic and military rise of China has shaken the pillars of America’s global dominance. China has come with its own institutions, like-minded partners, and tech advancements. Moreover, Russia’s resurgence has also created new security dilemmas for the US in Europe. The most severe blow to America’s ambitions is the evolving China-Russia nexus. Both countries seek to challenge the international order based on the American interpretations. At present, the world is rapidly changing and becoming multipolar, where regional powers have resurged to shape politics in a way favorable to them. The rise of middle powers like Iran, India, Turkiye, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Brazil, and so on, is also challenging America’s hegemonic ambitions. The creation of alternative economic and military institutions like BRICS and SCO has challenged the dollar’s dominance and military might of the USA.
+
+Conclusion
+In a nutshell, the edifice of US's global dominance is built on a strong foundation. However, global power and dominance are always dynamic and ever-evolving. The rise of multipolarity and the emerging trends have brought new challenges to this long-held global superpower status. The global landscape is changing with the emerging economies like China, India, and Brazil gaining prominence. The rise of multipolarity and regional autonomy is redefining the balance of power. As a result, America’s global dominance is being re-evaluated, and new pillars of influence are emerging.

data/The_Power_of_Big_Oil/The Power of Big Oil.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
+As 2024 is on track to be the warmest year on record, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has once again issued a red alert at the sheer pace of climate change in a single generation, turbocharged by ever-increasing greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere. This year is expected to also be the first in which the planet is more than 1.5°C hotter than in the 1850-1900 pre-industrial period. But, in spite of these stark stats as well as warnings, the world seems unwilling to cut carbon emissions.
+
+It is now "virtually certain" that 2024—a year punctuated by intense heatwaves and deadly storms—will be the world's warmest on record, according to projections by the European climate service. Global average temperatures across the year are on track to end up more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, which would make 2024 the first calendar year to breach this symbolic mark. These high temperatures are mainly down to human-caused climate change, with smaller contributions from natural factors such as the El Niño weather pattern. Burning of fossil fuels is the biggest cause behind the monster of climate change. There are three types of fossil fuel: coal, oil, and gas; however, oil is the most used fossil fuel simply because oil and its products have shaped our world. The oil-producing industry underlies the global economy—powering transport and industry, heating homes, providing electricity, and being the basis for raw materials like the plastics that are part of our daily lives. In short, humans have become dependent on oil companies for sustaining their lifestyles.
+
+But oil releases a considerably high amount of carbon when burned—approximately a third of the world's total carbon emissions come from expansive networks of pipelines, mines, wells, refineries, roads, and ports connected to the oil industry. These activities carve up natural environments and release pollution into the air, water, and land. The world's major oil and gas companies are still producing and selling fossil fuel products. Our dependence on oil has enabled the industry to balloon to such an extent that it has been dubbed "Big Oil," synonymous with driving global temperature rise.
+
+Many oil and gas companies claim they are playing a key role in the clean energy transition by investing in renewables and technologies like carbon capture. However, critics argue that they have also hindered progress.
+
+So, what does the future hold for Big Oil and the climate? Here's what you need to know.
+
+Big Oil
+"Big Oil" refers to the largest oil—and usually also gas—companies in the world. While this is the typical definition, the term is also now used to refer to state-owned oil companies, which are among the biggest producers in the world. Despite its fluid meaning, Big Oil is a very useful term for capturing the industry's immense size.
+
+With record breaking profits, trillions in investment and expansion plans, oil and gas industry generated an average annual profit of $1 trillion - or the equivalent $2.8 billion per day - during the period 1970-2020. And recent years have been particularly lucrative, with record gains in 2022, following energy price spikes after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Since then, oil and gas majors have paid shareholders an unprecedented $111 billion, according to analysis from international NGO Global Witness, which focuses on rights abuses, conflict, and natural resource exploitation. 
+
+These companies are extremely powerful, extremely profitable, and have an extraordinary influence over governments and societies around the world. Sponsoring academic institutions to encourage research that is favorable to Big Oil and supporting fossil fuel lobbying organizations that hold immense sway in governments are two of the ways they achieve this.
+A strong presence of industry representatives at UN COP climate summits also poses a huge challenge to any ambitious agreements on climate change action. At COP28 last year, the industry had a record number of lobbyists present, significantly more than the 10 most climate-vulnerable nations combined, according to the campaign Kick Big Polluters Out, a coalition of civil society organizations.
+
+Have fossil fuel majors hindered climate action?
+Recently, the climate website DeSmog published some documents from the Climate Investigations Center which revealed that major oil companies, including Shell and precursors to energy giants Chevron, ExxonMobil, and BP, were alerted about the planet-warming effects of fossil fuels as early as 1954. However, they paid no heed, as trillions of dollars are still flowing into fossil fuel development. The oil and gas industry today is the largest it has ever been.
+Research from think tank Carbon Tracker shows that while some big oil and gas companies are planning production to peak or decline in the long term, there's a general trend toward increasing it in the short term. This is happening despite the International Energy Agency's (IEA) warning that there is no room for new oil and gas fields or coal mines if the world is to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.
+
+Big Oil's 2023 Greenhouse Gas Emissions
+Shell and Chevron's Scope 3 figures include combustion of fuels they sell to customers but not produced themselves. Other producers' headline figures focus on fuel produced from their own barrels alone.
+
+How they hinder the energy transition
+The most powerful oil and gas associations have, for the last 50 years, used three key strategies to oppose, weaken, and delay the global energy transition, according to recent research from think tank InfluenceMap.
+The think tank report argues these include:
+
+Downplaying the impact and viability of alternative energy.
+Promoting consumer choice and market solutions.
+Portraying renewables as a risk to energy security and affordability.
+These strategies have likely succeeded in delaying the energy transition by slowing the growth of renewables and electric vehicles. Today, most of their public influence campaigning is taking place through PR agencies, marketing firms, sponsored content, and advertorials in media outlets, as well as subtler approaches such as supporting think tanks or academics.
+
+Are oil and gas companies helping to tackle emissions?
+Oil and gas contributed over 50% of global emissions from fuel combustion in 2022, according to the IEA. Yet oil and gas majors argue they play a key role in the clean energy transition by investing in renewables and technologies like carbon capture—which uses chemical reactions to remove carbon dioxide directly from the air or from power plants—and hydrogen, as well as pledges for net-zero emissions by 2050.
+However, the IEA criticizes oil and gas companies for "watching the energy transition from the sidelines." Clean energy spending by oil and gas companies grew to $30 billion in 2023, but this represents just 4% of their capital expenditure, according to the IEA.
+
+Conclusion
+Every dollar a fossil fuel executive makes has been stolen from the bank of nature, pushing us further into climate breakdown and leaving even more climate refugees saddled with the fallout. The year 2023 was a human catastrophe, 2024 has been hotter, and yet oil and gas giants keep raking in the profits.
+It has been 29 years since the first climate COP, yet in this time, world leaders have failed to take meaningful action to stem the tide of climate breakdown. Fossil fuel executives will never voluntarily cut their emissions. Our leaders' failure to force them to take action is unforgivable, but it is not irreversible. We know the causes, and we have the solutions to the crisis, but world leaders must finally step up.

data/Trump_2.0_and_Pakistan's_Emerging_Foreign_Policy/Trump 2.0 and Pakistan's Emerging Foreign Policy.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+The history of geopolitics dictates that when the mantle of power shifts in any great power, it often results in the reconfiguration  of its foreign affairs,
+and its reverberations are felt beyond their domains. Whether it was the ascension of a new Caesar in Rome or of a new Shah in Persia - both events led to the realignment of Armenians, Iberians (in modern day Georgia) and the Saka (Scythians) tribes or Xiongu's and Joseon Korea's character when the Mandate of Heaven found a new Emperor. Geopolitical considerations that emanate from great power politics pivot the foreign policies of other nations. Today, we are at one of its crossroads as the mantle of Washington's empire has been passed to a fundamentally different leader. 
+
+In the latest US presidential election, which was held on 5th November 2024, Donald Trump has been re-elected as the 47th President of the United States of America, and it is highly anticipated that the new administration would adjust the country's foreign policy drastically. The principal facet of Trump's policies that should shape Pakistan's approach would be how he formulates his policy on China, with whom the South Asian nation shares deep-rooted economic relations. Trump's hypertransactionalism is likely to play an important role in the dynamics of US-Pakistan relations even in the era of low-frequency bilateral engagements.
+
+Pakistan has lost its status as the "Rentier State." 
+One of Pakistan's major foreign policy considerations has, traditionally, been the domestic politics of the United States, particularly the party and person in power. The South Asian nation has historically fared well with Republicans in power. For instance, President Eisenhower, in the formative years of Pakistan, allowed the country to join US-sponsored blocs. Nixon, during the 1971 War, deployed Task Force 74 in the Bay of Bengal. Reagan's relentless support in the Afghan War turned the tide of the war, and Bush’s soft approach during the War on Terror fared prosperously for Pakistan in terms of financial aid flowing into the country. However, when there were Democrats in power, Pakistan faced arms embargos and various other sanctions. This can, by no means, be extrapolated to assessing the potential Pak-US relations under the second Trump presidency or any established policy line of either of the US parties, as the relationship has always been transactional, based upon the regional and global geopolitical circumstances.
+
+During Trump's first presidency, his indifference to Pakistan quickly shifted to a pragmatic approach. Although the Trump administration courted India (Pakistan's archrival), yet its diplomatic posture towards Pakistan did not signal animosity. Nonetheless, Trump's Pakistan policy was shaped by American interests in Afghanistan, China, and Iran. After the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the US has seen a reduced presence and concentration in the region, which has proven tumultuous for Pakistan, which lost its status as the 'Rentier State' articulated by Christophe Jaffrelot. The United States has since doubled down on its policy on China, which has greatly benefitted India—a vital partner in its Indo-Pacific policy as a bulwark against China. However, Pakistan maintained the strategic balance between its relations with China and the US.
+
+Trump’s policy as precedent
+The three major facets of Pakistan's foreign policy are: securing its eastern and western borders, averting the economic crisis, and acquiring sophisticated military hardware to balance with India. If we take Trump's previous presidency as a precedent, Islamabad should expect a carrot-and-stick approach. Pakistan would likely receive US support regarding Afghanistan, as Trump has had a hardline policy with terrorism, and with the Taliban viewing China as its economic savior, this policy is going to be reinforced.
+
+Furthermore, he is likely to pressure Pakistan in the economic sphere, as his protectionist policies, laced with high tariffs, are likely to affect not only Pakistan but also send a massive shock to the global economy. This is coupled with the fact that Pakistan is a primary beneficiary of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and is highly dependent on China for its economic and energy vows. Given his stance, Pakistan could face disfavour in the US. Lastly, it is also unlikely that Pakistan would receive military hardware from the US, as India has become a vital ally in the eastern sphere of the world (Pakistan already depends on Turkiye for the maintenance of its Western weaponry). The reliance on China for military hardware could also be penalized with sanctions (as the US did in October 2024 about long-range missiles). The Trump 2.0 administration would have an assertive take on international organizations that include China at the helm, such as the SCO and BRICS.
+
+Benign realignment
+Pakistan would need to tread carefully, not to antagonize the nation that fuels its economy or the one that provides for its defense. The economic situation of Pakistan limits its independence in conducting its foreign policy. It is highly dependent on US engagement, especially in the midst of the IMF loan program, and its dependence on China in multiple dimensions constricts its compliance with American policy. Islamabad could, however, maintain a strategy of "benign realignment," which can practically be adopted by engaging with China when the US warms its relations with China and impartiality when both are antagonistic.
+
+This could allow Islamabad to reap benefits when the opportunity presents itself and disengage when necessary. In the backdrop of Pakistan’s economic resurgence and need for stability, our policymakers must capitalize on all the opportunities available through engagement on the basis of trade as opposed to its conventional stance of seeking financial aid. Nonetheless, Pakistan is likely to be seen with suspicion by the US, and it needs not to provide any reason for that enmity.
+

data/Trump_and_the_World_2.0/Trump and the World 2.0.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+Trump will inherit a different world than he did in his previous term. In theatres like Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Lebanon, belligerents show fatigue and strategic exhaustion. Putin is not likely to be an easy diplomatic win for Trump, especially given Russia's recent on-ground successes against Ukraine. His pre-negotiation condition that Ukraine will not join NATO at any cost is not likely to cut much ice in Europe. Iran, though quite weak, had placed its nuclear program on a fast track after Trump pulled out from JCPOA during his first presidency. Houthis are vibrant with enough potential to imperil international shipping in the Red Sea. Both Hamas and Hezbollah are degraded but far from being demolished.
+
+At the core of Trump's policy, however, is one target: China.
+As a peer competitor, Beijing has made spectacular strides in economy, diplomacy, and international infrastructure development in recent decades. Its phenomenal rise has dented the United States' position as a global policeman. By offering an alternate political order driven by inclusive economic and infrastructure development, China has challenged the US-led Bretton Woods system.
+
+Accordingly, countering China’s BRI, the PLA Navy's ever-strengthening maritime military muscle in the Pacific, and Beijing’s economic penetration in the wider world will be a top priority of the Trump administration. This is evident from the appointment of the hawkish anti-China Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and another sharp critic of China, Mike Waltz, as his national security advisor placed alongside this is the US naval chief’s seven-goal plan issued just prior to the US elections. The new strategy asks the US Navy to be ready for a possible war with China in 2027. How Trump will navigate the US Navy’s war preparation with his “America First” slogan or the campaign pledge to end wars remains a million-dollar question.
+
+In Australia, apprehensions are widespread about the continuity of AUKUS, a technological arrangement between Canberra, London, and Washington aimed at equipping Australia with eight Virginia-class nuclear attack submarines. Australia fears that under “America First,” Trump may annul the agreement on the pretext of prioritizing the US Navy, which is already short of such submarines. Biden's US Indo-Pacific strategy is also likely to be revised by Trump.
+
+In Trump 2.0, resolute efforts to render Pakistan a dysfunctional state cannot be ruled out. As a strategic partner, India will serve to advance US interests and act as an outpost in the region. The primary purpose here would be to disable CPEC so that China cannot link up with other regions through the Gwadar port of Pakistan. Rendering Pakistan dysfunctional through political instability and economic collapse—and by abetting separatists and terrorists—will mean an end to CPEC, a huge setback for China’s BRI.
+
+However, there is no denying that Pakistan can do a lot to avert such nefarious external machinations by focusing purely on improving its long-needed internal security and domestic political stability. Unfortunately, this does not seem to be currently anywhere on the agenda of politico-military leadership enterprise in the country. The deadly attacks in the provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan have, by now, become routine daily news for common Pakistanis. Tens of hundreds of innocent citizens have perished in these attacks over the past two years. It defies common sense that while Kurram district in KP is drenched in blood, a popular political party is still promising to return to the capital city to continue its previously failed protest attempt.
+With such a callous approach, what is perhaps more painful is the manner in which customary statements are issued by the sitting leadership following each sinister terror attack or act of violence in the land. The scenes of coffins draped in national flags and shoulders carried by government officials juxtaposed with declarations of resolve to deal with terrorists with an iron hand have by now become too hollow and valueless. These are enough to make one wail more than lament the recurring tragedies.
+
+Overall, in Trump 2.0, China will be the US's topmost foe; India is the foremost strategic ally, and without question, Israel is the greatest beneficiary. For India, political stability must come along with full vigor to reboot CPEC, the last chance to revive the country's economic fortunes. If squandered through internal ineptness or external design, it is bound to shatter the country’s existence.
+
+Trump's philosophy of uninhibited use of American power to upend the world will soon bump into ground realities. Addicted to wars, the US's power is now in mortal decline. China will continue to rise, no matter what. The PLA navy is formidably stronger now, and Trump would be ill-advised to mess with China in East Asia.

data/Trump_vs_BRICS/Trump vs BRICS.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
+President-elect Donald Trump continues to send shockwaves with his sometimes premeditated but largely impulsive statements, threatening to upend the rules-based world order that successive US administrations have long supported with blood and money. The latest shockwave came from his statement on 30 November 2024, whereby he threatened to impose a 100% tariff on BRICS countries if they tried to create a new rival common currency or back an alternative currency to replace the US dollar as the world's medium of reserve exchange and trade transactions. Quite understandably, this statement warns of dire consequences for actions that are squarely within the jurisdictions of member countries and has created a firestorm, spurring debate among geostrategic and economic experts regarding whether BRICS is genuinely capable of undermining the US-dominated international financial order.
+
+Before we move ahead to understand the consequences of the President-elect's statement, it would be pertinent to highlight the role of the US dollar in international trade and finance and the factors that are responsible for its well-entrenched status to help understand the broader picture of the global economic landscape.
+
+Since the 1920s, the US dollar has been the world's predominant currency, having replaced the British pound as the primary medium of exchange. Now, the US dollar is primarily used in six areas:
+
+International payments
+Trade invoices
+Global foreign exchange reserves
+The foreign exchange market
+International debt
+International loans or borrowing
+
+All over the world, governments and central banks worldwide hold dollar-based assets, mainly in US treasury debt, to absorb economic shocks and manage the value of their national currencies. Dollar-dominated assets account for 59% of global foreign currency reserves; Euro: 20%, Chinese Renminbi 2.14%, Pound Sterling 4.9%, Japanese Yen 5.59% (International Monetary Fund). Similarly, governments and corporations borrow from multilateral lenders and countries in US dollars to insure their creditors. Currently, 64% of the world's debt is held in US dollars. In terms of international payments and transactions, the dollar accounts for 58% of global payments in 2024. The greenback remains the preferred medium of exchange for international trade, with 54% of global trade invoices in US dollars (Brookings Institution report, August 2024). Here, the question is: how has the US dollar maintained its undisputed status as the king of currencies for almost a century?
+
+The answer is complicated.
+
+The first major factor is the large and dynamic US economy that accounts for around 25% of the world economy.
+
+Secondly, the United States has robust investor-protection systems and an enviable rule of law, building trust in the US justice system to settle investment-related disputes.
+
+Thirdly, the US is both the largest recipient and source of foreign direct investment (FDI) worldwide.
+
+Fourth, the capital market of the US is open and deep, encouraging investors from across the world to invest in US treasury bills, treasury notes, treasury bonds, properties, and more. 
+
+All these factors make the US dollar a freely convertible currency globally, enabling corporations, governments, and individuals to use it as a medium of exchange for various economic activities. More importantly, on June 8, 1974, the US and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia struck a petrodollar deal, enabling the United States to purchase Saudi oil in exchange for military aid and equipment Saudis, in return, agreed to invest in US treasuries, providing a steady flow of capital to the US and helping stabilize the dollar. The US oversees a host of global financial institutions and infrastructures, such as the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) and interbank payment messaging platforms. The dominance over international financial systems allows the US to exert its predominance in financial and trade-related matters. However, in spite of enjoying unquestionable dominance, the US dollar has seen a relative, steady decline over the years. For instance, the share of the US dollar in global reserves has fallen from 70% in 2000 to 59% in 2024. Populist backlash, disputes over international trade and finance, and geopolitical fragmentation are but some reasons behind this once-in-a-century transformation. Of all the reasons, the rise of the Global South is the most potent factor that can eventually lead to the downfall of the mighty dollar. The growing importance of BRICS as a counterweight to G7 is one such area that has attracted the attention of US policymakers, including President-elect Donald Trump. In the following paragraphs, we are going to see how Trump’s stance over BRICS can lead to far-reaching consequences for the world economy and accelerate the downfall of the greenback.
+
+First, we see the potential of BRICS to come up with an alternative common currency.
+
+BRICS, a group of nine developing countries including Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Iran, the UAE, and Ethiopia, was founded in 2009 with an almost exclusive aim to counterbalance the West’s overwhelming hold on global governance and finance. Out of many proposed ideas that BRICS member countries have been pondering since 2009 is the development of a common currency to reduce reliance on the US dollar. The debate gained serious momentum after the Russia-Ukraine war when the West attempted to weaponize the US dollar to punish Kremlin for its so-called transgressions, freezing half of Russian forex reserves and removing it from the SWIFT system. Similarly, the US-led restrictions on exports of semiconductor technology to China and crippling sanctions on Iran also led to an increased desire among BRICS member countries to seek alternative currency for trade, investment, reserves, and borrowing. At various BRICS forums, several suggestions were floated to materialize this idea, such as using a basket of currencies from BRICS, using gold as a peg for a new BRICS currency, or even using cryptocurrencies to offset the economic and political advantages the US enjoys due to the primacy of the dollar. In 2023, at the BRICS Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva suggested creating a new currency. Later on, in October 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin called for an alternative international payment system, alleging that the greenback was being weaponized for furthering political objectives by the West. In short, calls for a global shift from the greenback are a major theme of BRICS, but member countries have so far avoided putting this idea into action. But can BRICS dethrone the king dollar, or is Trump blowing things out of proportion?
+
+The answer deserves our attention.
+
+Theoretically speaking, BRICS Plus can pose a serious challenge to the hegemony of the greenback. Economically, geographically, and demographically, BRICS Plus carries significant weight.
+Accounting for 46% of the world’s population and 35.6% of global GDP on Purchasing Power Parity, the bloc can certainly come up with a new currency to counterbalance the US dollar. However, given the geopolitical and geoeconomic differences among BRICS member countries, developing a new BRICS currency appears politically fraught and technically challenging in many ways.
+
+First, if any group of countries is looking for a new form of common currency, it would need to establish a set of institutions responsible for designing and implementing common standards and underpinning values. BRICS Plus doesn't have any such institutions currently.
+
+Secondly, the development of a new currency warrants the creation of a banking union, a fiscal union, and then a central and common market. All these prerequisites are missing in the case of BRICS Plus.
+
+Thirdly, political differences among the five major economies, in particular between China and India, would be the biggest hurdle in materializing any such bold initiative. Even if BRICS Plus countries were able to come up with a common currency, it would be dominated by the biggest and most stable economy in the group, i.e., China. All smaller countries would have to link their monetary policy with China, which would lead to another problem of the dominance of a single national currency.
+
+Moreover, investors and trading partners need confidence in the economic strength and integrity of the issuer of currency. Though China can meet this criterion, investors lack confidence in the internal dispute mechanisms and rule of law within the country, placing more hurdles in the way of creating a new and common currency.
+
+Having said that, developing a new currency acceptable for a group of countries is, if not impossible, a technically complex journey. Take the example of the euro, which is used in 20 countries. However, EU member states took more than 50 years to implement this idea. BRICS Plus countries can adopt this path, but it would require an internal cohesion and unanimous stance, which is rare to be found within this loosely-organized informal grouping.
+
+So, if developing a BRICS currency in the short and medium terms is not plausible, why is Donald Trump taking pains to preempt this move?
+Let's explore the answer to this question.
+First, US policymakers are more concerned with the growing use of local currencies in the Global South for settling trade transactions than with the development of new currencies. For instance, Al Jazeera noted back is working hard to come up with alternative payment mechanisms to rival SWIFT and CHIPS that will help countries such as Iran, Russia, and North Korea bypass sanctions and continue carrying out international trade.
+
+The primacy of the US dollar gives the United States many advantages: it reduces the cost of borrowing for both the US government and consumers; the cost of imports is also reduced, and the global reserve status of the US dollar means that the US government will never have to experience a currency crisis.
+
+More importantly, Trump's statement allows the West to undertake punitive measures such as economic sanctions worldwide, providing exorbitant privilege to Uncle Sam.
+
+These are some reasons that explain why Trump is threatening BRICS Plus members. But does his statement have any impact on the development of alternative currency? The answer is yes, but it could lead to unintended consequences for the United States in many ways.
+
+One such unintended consequence is that it would lead to a greater use of bilateral currencies for trade, if not a rival common currency. In response to Trump's statement, the Kremlin stated that if the US resorted to economic force to compel countries, it would backfire.
+Experts also share the same stance, noting that such statements elevate non-threats and reflect the lack of confidence in the dollar. Trying to coerce countries to use the dollar is itself a long-term threat to its hegemony. Furthermore, imposing a 100% tariff on imports would also translate into higher import prices, forcing US consumers to buy more expensive goods, and it will fuel inflation in the United States, which could deal a serious blow to its economy, starkly opposite to what Trump has promised to deliver during his election campaign.
+
+In conclusion, developing an alternative currency rivaling the US dollar in international finance and trade would be an uphill task, requiring extensive diplomatic and political investment within the bloc, which, at this stage, seems hard to reach. Furthermore, member countries, particularly India, have made it clear that they are not interested in de-dollarization, dealing a further blow to any prospect of a BRICS currency. Therefore, Donald Trump is just turning a molehill into a mountain, as there is no serious threat to the dollar's hegemony. Nonetheless, the Global South needs to find ways to reduce the overarching presence of the greenback; they should start by exploring the option of conducting trade in local currencies so that the developing world can be shielded from the political abuse of the dollar. The international financial and trade institutions should also reflect the ground realities, particularly the rise of the Global South, allowing emerging economies to share their grievances and presenting effective conflict-resolution mechanisms to avoid fragmentation of the global economy on the pattern of the Cold War.