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[ "nan Text: Globally, recent decades have witnessed a growing disjunction, a 'Valley of Death' 1,2 no less, between broadening strides in fundamental biomedical research and their incommensurate reach into the clinic. Plumbing work on research funding and development pipelines through recent changes in the structure of government funding, 2 new public and private joint ventures and specialist undergraduate and postgraduate courses now aim to incorporate pathways to translation at the earliest stages. Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day.", "Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day. Fuelled by the availability of new research technologies, as well as changing disease, cost and other pressing issues of our time, further growth in this exciting space will undoubtedly continue. Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants.", "Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants. Shaped by the hostvirus immunological 'arms race' and tempered in the forge of deep time, the biodiversity of our world is increasingly being harnessed for new biotechnologies and therapeutics. Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway.", "Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway. In this Clinical & Translational Immunology Special Feature, I illustrate a strategic vision integrating these themes to create new, effective, economical and robust antiviral therapies and immunotherapies, with both the realities and the opportunities afforded to researchers working in our changing world squarely in mind. Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses.", "Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses. Viral RNA polymerisation and reverse transcription enable resistance to treatment by conferring extraordinary genetic diversity. However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information.", "However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information. I coin this evolutionary dilemma the 'information economy paradox'. Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins MMHPs , thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost.", "Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins MMHPs , thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost. 4 I argue this exposes an 'Achilles Heel' that may be safely targeted via host-oriented therapies to impose devastating informational and fitness barriers on escape mutant selection. Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy.", "Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy. Achieving this through drug repurposing will break the vicious cycle of escalating therapeutic development costs and trivial escape mutant selection, both quickly and in multiple places. I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology.", "I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology. 4 I anticipate international efforts in these areas over the coming decade will enable the tapping of useful new biological functions and processes, methods for controlling infection, and the deployment of symbiotic or subclinical viruses in new therapies and biotechnologies that are so crucially needed. Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells.", "Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells. On the flip side, this same process also causes immunopathology when prolonged or deregulated. 5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins RBPs that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications.", "5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins RBPs that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications. 6 These RBPs include tristetraprolin and AUF1, which promote degradation of AU-rich element ARE -containing mRNA; members of the Roquin and Regnase families, which respectively promote or effect degradation of mRNAs harbouring stem-loop structures; and the increasingly apparent role of the RNA methylation machinery in controlling inflammatory mRNA stability. These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection.", "These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection. In this way, mRNA-destabilising RBPs constitute a 'brake' on the immune system, which may ultimately be toggled therapeutically. I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection.", "I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection. Another mRNA under post-transcriptional regulation by Regnase-1 and Roquin is Furin, which encodes a conserved proprotein convertase crucial in human health and disease. Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus HPV , influenza IAV , Ebola EboV , dengue DenV and human immunodeficiency virus HIV .", "Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus HPV , influenza IAV , Ebola EboV , dengue DenV and human immunodeficiency virus HIV . Here, Braun and Sauter review the roles of furin in these processes, as well as the history and future of furin-targeting therapeutics. 7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles MV , zika ZikV and HIV by suppressing furin activity.", "7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles MV , zika ZikV and HIV by suppressing furin activity. 8 Over the coming decade, I expect to see an ever-finer spatiotemporal resolution of host-oriented therapies to achieve safe, effective and broad-spectrum yet costeffective therapies for clinical use. The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world.", "The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world. The MinION nanopore sequencer is one of the latest innovations in this space, enabling direct sequencing in a miniature form factor with only minimal sample preparation and a consumer-grade laptop computer. Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses.", "Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses. 9 While direct sequencing of viral genomic RNA is challenging, this system was recently used to directly sequence an RNA virus genome IAV for the first time. 10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus nCoV / COVID-19 outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account.", "10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus nCoV / COVID-19 outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account. Decades of basic immunology research have provided a near-complete picture of the main armaments in the human antiviral arsenal. Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere.", "Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere. One case in point is the CRISPR/Cas antiviral immune system of prokaryotes, which is now repurposed as a revolutionary gene-editing biotechnology in plants and animals. 11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses NCLDVs , which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions.", "11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses NCLDVs , which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions. 12 Moreover, hundreds of human-and avian-infective viruses such as IAV strain H5N1 are known, but recent efforts indicate the true number may be in the millions and many harbour zoonotic potential. 13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity.", "13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity. Closing this Special Feature, Watanabe and Kawaoka elaborate on neo-virology, an emerging field engaged in cataloguing and characterising this biodiversity through a global consortium. 14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution.", "14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution. When biomedical innovations fall into the 'Valley of Death', patients who are therefore not reached all too often fall with them. Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers.", "Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers. Nevertheless, the road to research translation is winding and is built on a foundation of basic research. Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda.", "Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda. 2 These frame Australia's Medical Research and Innovation Priorities, which include antimicrobial resistance, global health and health security, drug repurposing and translational research infrastructure, 15 capturing many of the key elements of this CTI Special Feature. Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes.", "Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes. To this end, NHMRC has recently taken steps under the International Engagement Strategy 16 to increase cooperation with its counterparts overseas. These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development AMED , tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country.", "These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development AMED , tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country. Given the reciprocal efforts at accelerating bilateral engagement currently underway, 17 the prospects for new areas of international cooperation and mobility have never been more exciting nor urgent. With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity AIFII and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences ConBio conferences in Japan.", "With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity AIFII and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences ConBio conferences in Japan. Both Australia and Japan have strong traditions in immunology and related disciplines, and I predict that the quantity, quality and importance of our bilateral cooperation will accelerate rapidly over the short to medium term. By expanding and cooperatively leveraging our respective research strengths, our efforts may yet solve the many pressing disease, cost and other sustainability issues of our time." ]

[ "nan Text: Globally, recent decades have witnessed a growing disjunction, a 'Valley of Death' 1,2 no less, between broadening strides in fundamental biomedical research and their incommensurate reach into the clinic. Plumbing work on research funding and development pipelines through recent changes in the structure of government funding, 2 new public and private joint ventures and specialist undergraduate and postgraduate courses now aim to incorporate pathways to translation at the earliest stages. Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day.", "Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day. Fuelled by the availability of new research technologies, as well as changing disease, cost and other pressing issues of our time, further growth in this exciting space will undoubtedly continue. Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants.", "Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants. Shaped by the hostvirus immunological 'arms race' and tempered in the forge of deep time, the biodiversity of our world is increasingly being harnessed for new biotechnologies and therapeutics. Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway.", "Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway. In this Clinical & Translational Immunology Special Feature, I illustrate a strategic vision integrating these themes to create new, effective, economical and robust antiviral therapies and immunotherapies, with both the realities and the opportunities afforded to researchers working in our changing world squarely in mind. Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses.", "Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses. Viral RNA polymerisation and reverse transcription enable resistance to treatment by conferring extraordinary genetic diversity. However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information.", "However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information. I coin this evolutionary dilemma the 'information economy paradox'. Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins MMHPs , thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost.", "Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins MMHPs , thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost. 4 I argue this exposes an 'Achilles Heel' that may be safely targeted via host-oriented therapies to impose devastating informational and fitness barriers on escape mutant selection. Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy.", "Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy. Achieving this through drug repurposing will break the vicious cycle of escalating therapeutic development costs and trivial escape mutant selection, both quickly and in multiple places. I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology.", "I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology. 4 I anticipate international efforts in these areas over the coming decade will enable the tapping of useful new biological functions and processes, methods for controlling infection, and the deployment of symbiotic or subclinical viruses in new therapies and biotechnologies that are so crucially needed. Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells.", "Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells. On the flip side, this same process also causes immunopathology when prolonged or deregulated. 5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins RBPs that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications.", "5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins RBPs that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications. 6 These RBPs include tristetraprolin and AUF1, which promote degradation of AU-rich element ARE -containing mRNA; members of the Roquin and Regnase families, which respectively promote or effect degradation of mRNAs harbouring stem-loop structures; and the increasingly apparent role of the RNA methylation machinery in controlling inflammatory mRNA stability. These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection.", "These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection. In this way, mRNA-destabilising RBPs constitute a 'brake' on the immune system, which may ultimately be toggled therapeutically. I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection.", "I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection. Another mRNA under post-transcriptional regulation by Regnase-1 and Roquin is Furin, which encodes a conserved proprotein convertase crucial in human health and disease. Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus HPV , influenza IAV , Ebola EboV , dengue DenV and human immunodeficiency virus HIV .", "Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus HPV , influenza IAV , Ebola EboV , dengue DenV and human immunodeficiency virus HIV . Here, Braun and Sauter review the roles of furin in these processes, as well as the history and future of furin-targeting therapeutics. 7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles MV , zika ZikV and HIV by suppressing furin activity.", "7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles MV , zika ZikV and HIV by suppressing furin activity. 8 Over the coming decade, I expect to see an ever-finer spatiotemporal resolution of host-oriented therapies to achieve safe, effective and broad-spectrum yet costeffective therapies for clinical use. The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world.", "The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world. The MinION nanopore sequencer is one of the latest innovations in this space, enabling direct sequencing in a miniature form factor with only minimal sample preparation and a consumer-grade laptop computer. Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses.", "Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses. 9 While direct sequencing of viral genomic RNA is challenging, this system was recently used to directly sequence an RNA virus genome IAV for the first time. 10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus nCoV / COVID-19 outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account.", "10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus nCoV / COVID-19 outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account. Decades of basic immunology research have provided a near-complete picture of the main armaments in the human antiviral arsenal. Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere.", "Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere. One case in point is the CRISPR/Cas antiviral immune system of prokaryotes, which is now repurposed as a revolutionary gene-editing biotechnology in plants and animals. 11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses NCLDVs , which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions.", "11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses NCLDVs , which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions. 12 Moreover, hundreds of human-and avian-infective viruses such as IAV strain H5N1 are known, but recent efforts indicate the true number may be in the millions and many harbour zoonotic potential. 13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity.", "13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity. Closing this Special Feature, Watanabe and Kawaoka elaborate on neo-virology, an emerging field engaged in cataloguing and characterising this biodiversity through a global consortium. 14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution.", "14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution. When biomedical innovations fall into the 'Valley of Death', patients who are therefore not reached all too often fall with them. Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers.", "Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers. Nevertheless, the road to research translation is winding and is built on a foundation of basic research. Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda.", "Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda. 2 These frame Australia's Medical Research and Innovation Priorities, which include antimicrobial resistance, global health and health security, drug repurposing and translational research infrastructure, 15 capturing many of the key elements of this CTI Special Feature. Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes.", "Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes. To this end, NHMRC has recently taken steps under the International Engagement Strategy 16 to increase cooperation with its counterparts overseas. These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development AMED , tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country.", "These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development AMED , tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country. Given the reciprocal efforts at accelerating bilateral engagement currently underway, 17 the prospects for new areas of international cooperation and mobility have never been more exciting nor urgent. With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity AIFII and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences ConBio conferences in Japan.", "With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity AIFII and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences ConBio conferences in Japan. Both Australia and Japan have strong traditions in immunology and related disciplines, and I predict that the quantity, quality and importance of our bilateral cooperation will accelerate rapidly over the short to medium term. By expanding and cooperatively leveraging our respective research strengths, our efforts may yet solve the many pressing disease, cost and other sustainability issues of our time." ]

[ "nan Text: Globally, recent decades have witnessed a growing disjunction, a 'Valley of Death' 1,2 no less, between broadening strides in fundamental biomedical research and their incommensurate reach into the clinic. Plumbing work on research funding and development pipelines through recent changes in the structure of government funding, 2 new public and private joint ventures and specialist undergraduate and postgraduate courses now aim to incorporate pathways to translation at the earliest stages. Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day.", "Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day. Fuelled by the availability of new research technologies, as well as changing disease, cost and other pressing issues of our time, further growth in this exciting space will undoubtedly continue. Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants.", "Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants. Shaped by the hostvirus immunological 'arms race' and tempered in the forge of deep time, the biodiversity of our world is increasingly being harnessed for new biotechnologies and therapeutics. Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway.", "Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway. In this Clinical & Translational Immunology Special Feature, I illustrate a strategic vision integrating these themes to create new, effective, economical and robust antiviral therapies and immunotherapies, with both the realities and the opportunities afforded to researchers working in our changing world squarely in mind. Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses.", "Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses. Viral RNA polymerisation and reverse transcription enable resistance to treatment by conferring extraordinary genetic diversity. However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information.", "However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information. I coin this evolutionary dilemma the 'information economy paradox'. Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins MMHPs , thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost.", "Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins MMHPs , thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost. 4 I argue this exposes an 'Achilles Heel' that may be safely targeted via host-oriented therapies to impose devastating informational and fitness barriers on escape mutant selection. Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy.", "Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy. Achieving this through drug repurposing will break the vicious cycle of escalating therapeutic development costs and trivial escape mutant selection, both quickly and in multiple places. I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology.", "I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology. 4 I anticipate international efforts in these areas over the coming decade will enable the tapping of useful new biological functions and processes, methods for controlling infection, and the deployment of symbiotic or subclinical viruses in new therapies and biotechnologies that are so crucially needed. Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells.", "Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells. On the flip side, this same process also causes immunopathology when prolonged or deregulated. 5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins RBPs that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications.", "5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins RBPs that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications. 6 These RBPs include tristetraprolin and AUF1, which promote degradation of AU-rich element ARE -containing mRNA; members of the Roquin and Regnase families, which respectively promote or effect degradation of mRNAs harbouring stem-loop structures; and the increasingly apparent role of the RNA methylation machinery in controlling inflammatory mRNA stability. These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection.", "These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection. In this way, mRNA-destabilising RBPs constitute a 'brake' on the immune system, which may ultimately be toggled therapeutically. I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection.", "I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection. Another mRNA under post-transcriptional regulation by Regnase-1 and Roquin is Furin, which encodes a conserved proprotein convertase crucial in human health and disease. Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus HPV , influenza IAV , Ebola EboV , dengue DenV and human immunodeficiency virus HIV .", "Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus HPV , influenza IAV , Ebola EboV , dengue DenV and human immunodeficiency virus HIV . Here, Braun and Sauter review the roles of furin in these processes, as well as the history and future of furin-targeting therapeutics. 7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles MV , zika ZikV and HIV by suppressing furin activity.", "7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles MV , zika ZikV and HIV by suppressing furin activity. 8 Over the coming decade, I expect to see an ever-finer spatiotemporal resolution of host-oriented therapies to achieve safe, effective and broad-spectrum yet costeffective therapies for clinical use. The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world.", "The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world. The MinION nanopore sequencer is one of the latest innovations in this space, enabling direct sequencing in a miniature form factor with only minimal sample preparation and a consumer-grade laptop computer. Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses.", "Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses. 9 While direct sequencing of viral genomic RNA is challenging, this system was recently used to directly sequence an RNA virus genome IAV for the first time. 10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus nCoV / COVID-19 outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account.", "10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus nCoV / COVID-19 outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account. Decades of basic immunology research have provided a near-complete picture of the main armaments in the human antiviral arsenal. Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere.", "Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere. One case in point is the CRISPR/Cas antiviral immune system of prokaryotes, which is now repurposed as a revolutionary gene-editing biotechnology in plants and animals. 11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses NCLDVs , which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions.", "11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses NCLDVs , which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions. 12 Moreover, hundreds of human-and avian-infective viruses such as IAV strain H5N1 are known, but recent efforts indicate the true number may be in the millions and many harbour zoonotic potential. 13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity.", "13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity. Closing this Special Feature, Watanabe and Kawaoka elaborate on neo-virology, an emerging field engaged in cataloguing and characterising this biodiversity through a global consortium. 14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution.", "14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution. When biomedical innovations fall into the 'Valley of Death', patients who are therefore not reached all too often fall with them. Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers.", "Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers. Nevertheless, the road to research translation is winding and is built on a foundation of basic research. Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda.", "Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda. 2 These frame Australia's Medical Research and Innovation Priorities, which include antimicrobial resistance, global health and health security, drug repurposing and translational research infrastructure, 15 capturing many of the key elements of this CTI Special Feature. Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes.", "Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes. To this end, NHMRC has recently taken steps under the International Engagement Strategy 16 to increase cooperation with its counterparts overseas. These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development AMED , tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country.", "These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development AMED , tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country. Given the reciprocal efforts at accelerating bilateral engagement currently underway, 17 the prospects for new areas of international cooperation and mobility have never been more exciting nor urgent. With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity AIFII and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences ConBio conferences in Japan.", "With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity AIFII and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences ConBio conferences in Japan. Both Australia and Japan have strong traditions in immunology and related disciplines, and I predict that the quantity, quality and importance of our bilateral cooperation will accelerate rapidly over the short to medium term. By expanding and cooperatively leveraging our respective research strengths, our efforts may yet solve the many pressing disease, cost and other sustainability issues of our time." ]

[ "nan Text: Globally, recent decades have witnessed a growing disjunction, a 'Valley of Death' 1,2 no less, between broadening strides in fundamental biomedical research and their incommensurate reach into the clinic. Plumbing work on research funding and development pipelines through recent changes in the structure of government funding, 2 new public and private joint ventures and specialist undergraduate and postgraduate courses now aim to incorporate pathways to translation at the earliest stages. Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day.", "Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day. Fuelled by the availability of new research technologies, as well as changing disease, cost and other pressing issues of our time, further growth in this exciting space will undoubtedly continue. Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants.", "Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants. Shaped by the hostvirus immunological 'arms race' and tempered in the forge of deep time, the biodiversity of our world is increasingly being harnessed for new biotechnologies and therapeutics. Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway.", "Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway. In this Clinical & Translational Immunology Special Feature, I illustrate a strategic vision integrating these themes to create new, effective, economical and robust antiviral therapies and immunotherapies, with both the realities and the opportunities afforded to researchers working in our changing world squarely in mind. Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses.", "Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses. Viral RNA polymerisation and reverse transcription enable resistance to treatment by conferring extraordinary genetic diversity. However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information.", "However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information. I coin this evolutionary dilemma the 'information economy paradox'. Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins MMHPs , thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost.", "Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins MMHPs , thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost. 4 I argue this exposes an 'Achilles Heel' that may be safely targeted via host-oriented therapies to impose devastating informational and fitness barriers on escape mutant selection. Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy.", "Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy. Achieving this through drug repurposing will break the vicious cycle of escalating therapeutic development costs and trivial escape mutant selection, both quickly and in multiple places. I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology.", "I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology. 4 I anticipate international efforts in these areas over the coming decade will enable the tapping of useful new biological functions and processes, methods for controlling infection, and the deployment of symbiotic or subclinical viruses in new therapies and biotechnologies that are so crucially needed. Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells.", "Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells. On the flip side, this same process also causes immunopathology when prolonged or deregulated. 5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins RBPs that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications.", "5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins RBPs that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications. 6 These RBPs include tristetraprolin and AUF1, which promote degradation of AU-rich element ARE -containing mRNA; members of the Roquin and Regnase families, which respectively promote or effect degradation of mRNAs harbouring stem-loop structures; and the increasingly apparent role of the RNA methylation machinery in controlling inflammatory mRNA stability. These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection.", "These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection. In this way, mRNA-destabilising RBPs constitute a 'brake' on the immune system, which may ultimately be toggled therapeutically. I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection.", "I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection. Another mRNA under post-transcriptional regulation by Regnase-1 and Roquin is Furin, which encodes a conserved proprotein convertase crucial in human health and disease. Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus HPV , influenza IAV , Ebola EboV , dengue DenV and human immunodeficiency virus HIV .", "Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus HPV , influenza IAV , Ebola EboV , dengue DenV and human immunodeficiency virus HIV . Here, Braun and Sauter review the roles of furin in these processes, as well as the history and future of furin-targeting therapeutics. 7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles MV , zika ZikV and HIV by suppressing furin activity.", "7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles MV , zika ZikV and HIV by suppressing furin activity. 8 Over the coming decade, I expect to see an ever-finer spatiotemporal resolution of host-oriented therapies to achieve safe, effective and broad-spectrum yet costeffective therapies for clinical use. The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world.", "The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world. The MinION nanopore sequencer is one of the latest innovations in this space, enabling direct sequencing in a miniature form factor with only minimal sample preparation and a consumer-grade laptop computer. Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses.", "Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses. 9 While direct sequencing of viral genomic RNA is challenging, this system was recently used to directly sequence an RNA virus genome IAV for the first time. 10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus nCoV / COVID-19 outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account.", "10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus nCoV / COVID-19 outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account. Decades of basic immunology research have provided a near-complete picture of the main armaments in the human antiviral arsenal. Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere.", "Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere. One case in point is the CRISPR/Cas antiviral immune system of prokaryotes, which is now repurposed as a revolutionary gene-editing biotechnology in plants and animals. 11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses NCLDVs , which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions.", "11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses NCLDVs , which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions. 12 Moreover, hundreds of human-and avian-infective viruses such as IAV strain H5N1 are known, but recent efforts indicate the true number may be in the millions and many harbour zoonotic potential. 13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity.", "13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity. Closing this Special Feature, Watanabe and Kawaoka elaborate on neo-virology, an emerging field engaged in cataloguing and characterising this biodiversity through a global consortium. 14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution.", "14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution. When biomedical innovations fall into the 'Valley of Death', patients who are therefore not reached all too often fall with them. Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers.", "Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers. Nevertheless, the road to research translation is winding and is built on a foundation of basic research. Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda.", "Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda. 2 These frame Australia's Medical Research and Innovation Priorities, which include antimicrobial resistance, global health and health security, drug repurposing and translational research infrastructure, 15 capturing many of the key elements of this CTI Special Feature. Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes.", "Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes. To this end, NHMRC has recently taken steps under the International Engagement Strategy 16 to increase cooperation with its counterparts overseas. These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development AMED , tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country.", "These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development AMED , tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country. Given the reciprocal efforts at accelerating bilateral engagement currently underway, 17 the prospects for new areas of international cooperation and mobility have never been more exciting nor urgent. With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity AIFII and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences ConBio conferences in Japan.", "With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity AIFII and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences ConBio conferences in Japan. Both Australia and Japan have strong traditions in immunology and related disciplines, and I predict that the quantity, quality and importance of our bilateral cooperation will accelerate rapidly over the short to medium term. By expanding and cooperatively leveraging our respective research strengths, our efforts may yet solve the many pressing disease, cost and other sustainability issues of our time." ]

[ "nan Text: Globally, recent decades have witnessed a growing disjunction, a 'Valley of Death' 1,2 no less, between broadening strides in fundamental biomedical research and their incommensurate reach into the clinic. Plumbing work on research funding and development pipelines through recent changes in the structure of government funding, 2 new public and private joint ventures and specialist undergraduate and postgraduate courses now aim to incorporate pathways to translation at the earliest stages. Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day.", "Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day. Fuelled by the availability of new research technologies, as well as changing disease, cost and other pressing issues of our time, further growth in this exciting space will undoubtedly continue. Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants.", "Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants. Shaped by the hostvirus immunological 'arms race' and tempered in the forge of deep time, the biodiversity of our world is increasingly being harnessed for new biotechnologies and therapeutics. Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway.", "Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway. In this Clinical & Translational Immunology Special Feature, I illustrate a strategic vision integrating these themes to create new, effective, economical and robust antiviral therapies and immunotherapies, with both the realities and the opportunities afforded to researchers working in our changing world squarely in mind. Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses.", "Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses. Viral RNA polymerisation and reverse transcription enable resistance to treatment by conferring extraordinary genetic diversity. However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information.", "However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information. I coin this evolutionary dilemma the 'information economy paradox'. Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins MMHPs , thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost.", "Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins MMHPs , thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost. 4 I argue this exposes an 'Achilles Heel' that may be safely targeted via host-oriented therapies to impose devastating informational and fitness barriers on escape mutant selection. Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy.", "Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy. Achieving this through drug repurposing will break the vicious cycle of escalating therapeutic development costs and trivial escape mutant selection, both quickly and in multiple places. I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology.", "I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology. 4 I anticipate international efforts in these areas over the coming decade will enable the tapping of useful new biological functions and processes, methods for controlling infection, and the deployment of symbiotic or subclinical viruses in new therapies and biotechnologies that are so crucially needed. Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells.", "Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells. On the flip side, this same process also causes immunopathology when prolonged or deregulated. 5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins RBPs that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications.", "5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins RBPs that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications. 6 These RBPs include tristetraprolin and AUF1, which promote degradation of AU-rich element ARE -containing mRNA; members of the Roquin and Regnase families, which respectively promote or effect degradation of mRNAs harbouring stem-loop structures; and the increasingly apparent role of the RNA methylation machinery in controlling inflammatory mRNA stability. These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection.", "These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection. In this way, mRNA-destabilising RBPs constitute a 'brake' on the immune system, which may ultimately be toggled therapeutically. I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection.", "I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection. Another mRNA under post-transcriptional regulation by Regnase-1 and Roquin is Furin, which encodes a conserved proprotein convertase crucial in human health and disease. Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus HPV , influenza IAV , Ebola EboV , dengue DenV and human immunodeficiency virus HIV .", "Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus HPV , influenza IAV , Ebola EboV , dengue DenV and human immunodeficiency virus HIV . Here, Braun and Sauter review the roles of furin in these processes, as well as the history and future of furin-targeting therapeutics. 7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles MV , zika ZikV and HIV by suppressing furin activity.", "7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles MV , zika ZikV and HIV by suppressing furin activity. 8 Over the coming decade, I expect to see an ever-finer spatiotemporal resolution of host-oriented therapies to achieve safe, effective and broad-spectrum yet costeffective therapies for clinical use. The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world.", "The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world. The MinION nanopore sequencer is one of the latest innovations in this space, enabling direct sequencing in a miniature form factor with only minimal sample preparation and a consumer-grade laptop computer. Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses.", "Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses. 9 While direct sequencing of viral genomic RNA is challenging, this system was recently used to directly sequence an RNA virus genome IAV for the first time. 10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus nCoV / COVID-19 outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account.", "10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus nCoV / COVID-19 outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account. Decades of basic immunology research have provided a near-complete picture of the main armaments in the human antiviral arsenal. Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere.", "Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere. One case in point is the CRISPR/Cas antiviral immune system of prokaryotes, which is now repurposed as a revolutionary gene-editing biotechnology in plants and animals. 11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses NCLDVs , which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions.", "11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses NCLDVs , which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions. 12 Moreover, hundreds of human-and avian-infective viruses such as IAV strain H5N1 are known, but recent efforts indicate the true number may be in the millions and many harbour zoonotic potential. 13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity.", "13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity. Closing this Special Feature, Watanabe and Kawaoka elaborate on neo-virology, an emerging field engaged in cataloguing and characterising this biodiversity through a global consortium. 14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution.", "14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution. When biomedical innovations fall into the 'Valley of Death', patients who are therefore not reached all too often fall with them. Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers.", "Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers. Nevertheless, the road to research translation is winding and is built on a foundation of basic research. Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda.", "Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda. 2 These frame Australia's Medical Research and Innovation Priorities, which include antimicrobial resistance, global health and health security, drug repurposing and translational research infrastructure, 15 capturing many of the key elements of this CTI Special Feature. Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes.", "Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes. To this end, NHMRC has recently taken steps under the International Engagement Strategy 16 to increase cooperation with its counterparts overseas. These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development AMED , tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country.", "These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development AMED , tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country. Given the reciprocal efforts at accelerating bilateral engagement currently underway, 17 the prospects for new areas of international cooperation and mobility have never been more exciting nor urgent. With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity AIFII and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences ConBio conferences in Japan.", "With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity AIFII and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences ConBio conferences in Japan. Both Australia and Japan have strong traditions in immunology and related disciplines, and I predict that the quantity, quality and importance of our bilateral cooperation will accelerate rapidly over the short to medium term. By expanding and cooperatively leveraging our respective research strengths, our efforts may yet solve the many pressing disease, cost and other sustainability issues of our time." ]

[ "nan Text: Globally, recent decades have witnessed a growing disjunction, a 'Valley of Death' 1,2 no less, between broadening strides in fundamental biomedical research and their incommensurate reach into the clinic. Plumbing work on research funding and development pipelines through recent changes in the structure of government funding, 2 new public and private joint ventures and specialist undergraduate and postgraduate courses now aim to incorporate pathways to translation at the earliest stages. Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day.", "Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day. Fuelled by the availability of new research technologies, as well as changing disease, cost and other pressing issues of our time, further growth in this exciting space will undoubtedly continue. Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants.", "Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants. Shaped by the hostvirus immunological 'arms race' and tempered in the forge of deep time, the biodiversity of our world is increasingly being harnessed for new biotechnologies and therapeutics. Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway.", "Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway. In this Clinical & Translational Immunology Special Feature, I illustrate a strategic vision integrating these themes to create new, effective, economical and robust antiviral therapies and immunotherapies, with both the realities and the opportunities afforded to researchers working in our changing world squarely in mind. Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses.", "Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses. Viral RNA polymerisation and reverse transcription enable resistance to treatment by conferring extraordinary genetic diversity. However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information.", "However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information. I coin this evolutionary dilemma the 'information economy paradox'. Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins MMHPs , thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost.", "Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins MMHPs , thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost. 4 I argue this exposes an 'Achilles Heel' that may be safely targeted via host-oriented therapies to impose devastating informational and fitness barriers on escape mutant selection. Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy.", "Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy. Achieving this through drug repurposing will break the vicious cycle of escalating therapeutic development costs and trivial escape mutant selection, both quickly and in multiple places. I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology.", "I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology. 4 I anticipate international efforts in these areas over the coming decade will enable the tapping of useful new biological functions and processes, methods for controlling infection, and the deployment of symbiotic or subclinical viruses in new therapies and biotechnologies that are so crucially needed. Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells.", "Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells. On the flip side, this same process also causes immunopathology when prolonged or deregulated. 5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins RBPs that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications.", "5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins RBPs that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications. 6 These RBPs include tristetraprolin and AUF1, which promote degradation of AU-rich element ARE -containing mRNA; members of the Roquin and Regnase families, which respectively promote or effect degradation of mRNAs harbouring stem-loop structures; and the increasingly apparent role of the RNA methylation machinery in controlling inflammatory mRNA stability. These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection.", "These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection. In this way, mRNA-destabilising RBPs constitute a 'brake' on the immune system, which may ultimately be toggled therapeutically. I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection.", "I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection. Another mRNA under post-transcriptional regulation by Regnase-1 and Roquin is Furin, which encodes a conserved proprotein convertase crucial in human health and disease. Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus HPV , influenza IAV , Ebola EboV , dengue DenV and human immunodeficiency virus HIV .", "Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus HPV , influenza IAV , Ebola EboV , dengue DenV and human immunodeficiency virus HIV . Here, Braun and Sauter review the roles of furin in these processes, as well as the history and future of furin-targeting therapeutics. 7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles MV , zika ZikV and HIV by suppressing furin activity.", "7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles MV , zika ZikV and HIV by suppressing furin activity. 8 Over the coming decade, I expect to see an ever-finer spatiotemporal resolution of host-oriented therapies to achieve safe, effective and broad-spectrum yet costeffective therapies for clinical use. The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world.", "The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world. The MinION nanopore sequencer is one of the latest innovations in this space, enabling direct sequencing in a miniature form factor with only minimal sample preparation and a consumer-grade laptop computer. Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses.", "Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses. 9 While direct sequencing of viral genomic RNA is challenging, this system was recently used to directly sequence an RNA virus genome IAV for the first time. 10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus nCoV / COVID-19 outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account.", "10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus nCoV / COVID-19 outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account. Decades of basic immunology research have provided a near-complete picture of the main armaments in the human antiviral arsenal. Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere.", "Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere. One case in point is the CRISPR/Cas antiviral immune system of prokaryotes, which is now repurposed as a revolutionary gene-editing biotechnology in plants and animals. 11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses NCLDVs , which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions.", "11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses NCLDVs , which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions. 12 Moreover, hundreds of human-and avian-infective viruses such as IAV strain H5N1 are known, but recent efforts indicate the true number may be in the millions and many harbour zoonotic potential. 13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity.", "13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity. Closing this Special Feature, Watanabe and Kawaoka elaborate on neo-virology, an emerging field engaged in cataloguing and characterising this biodiversity through a global consortium. 14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution.", "14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution. When biomedical innovations fall into the 'Valley of Death', patients who are therefore not reached all too often fall with them. Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers.", "Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers. Nevertheless, the road to research translation is winding and is built on a foundation of basic research. Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda.", "Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda. 2 These frame Australia's Medical Research and Innovation Priorities, which include antimicrobial resistance, global health and health security, drug repurposing and translational research infrastructure, 15 capturing many of the key elements of this CTI Special Feature. Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes.", "Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes. To this end, NHMRC has recently taken steps under the International Engagement Strategy 16 to increase cooperation with its counterparts overseas. These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development AMED , tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country.", "These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development AMED , tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country. Given the reciprocal efforts at accelerating bilateral engagement currently underway, 17 the prospects for new areas of international cooperation and mobility have never been more exciting nor urgent. With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity AIFII and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences ConBio conferences in Japan.", "With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity AIFII and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences ConBio conferences in Japan. Both Australia and Japan have strong traditions in immunology and related disciplines, and I predict that the quantity, quality and importance of our bilateral cooperation will accelerate rapidly over the short to medium term. By expanding and cooperatively leveraging our respective research strengths, our efforts may yet solve the many pressing disease, cost and other sustainability issues of our time." ]

[ "nan Text: Globally, recent decades have witnessed a growing disjunction, a 'Valley of Death' 1,2 no less, between broadening strides in fundamental biomedical research and their incommensurate reach into the clinic. Plumbing work on research funding and development pipelines through recent changes in the structure of government funding, 2 new public and private joint ventures and specialist undergraduate and postgraduate courses now aim to incorporate pathways to translation at the earliest stages. Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day.", "Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day. Fuelled by the availability of new research technologies, as well as changing disease, cost and other pressing issues of our time, further growth in this exciting space will undoubtedly continue. Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants.", "Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants. Shaped by the hostvirus immunological 'arms race' and tempered in the forge of deep time, the biodiversity of our world is increasingly being harnessed for new biotechnologies and therapeutics. Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway.", "Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway. In this Clinical & Translational Immunology Special Feature, I illustrate a strategic vision integrating these themes to create new, effective, economical and robust antiviral therapies and immunotherapies, with both the realities and the opportunities afforded to researchers working in our changing world squarely in mind. Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses.", "Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses. Viral RNA polymerisation and reverse transcription enable resistance to treatment by conferring extraordinary genetic diversity. However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information.", "However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information. I coin this evolutionary dilemma the 'information economy paradox'. Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins MMHPs , thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost.", "Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins MMHPs , thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost. 4 I argue this exposes an 'Achilles Heel' that may be safely targeted via host-oriented therapies to impose devastating informational and fitness barriers on escape mutant selection. Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy.", "Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy. Achieving this through drug repurposing will break the vicious cycle of escalating therapeutic development costs and trivial escape mutant selection, both quickly and in multiple places. I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology.", "I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology. 4 I anticipate international efforts in these areas over the coming decade will enable the tapping of useful new biological functions and processes, methods for controlling infection, and the deployment of symbiotic or subclinical viruses in new therapies and biotechnologies that are so crucially needed. Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells.", "Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells. On the flip side, this same process also causes immunopathology when prolonged or deregulated. 5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins RBPs that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications.", "5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins RBPs that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications. 6 These RBPs include tristetraprolin and AUF1, which promote degradation of AU-rich element ARE -containing mRNA; members of the Roquin and Regnase families, which respectively promote or effect degradation of mRNAs harbouring stem-loop structures; and the increasingly apparent role of the RNA methylation machinery in controlling inflammatory mRNA stability. These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection.", "These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection. In this way, mRNA-destabilising RBPs constitute a 'brake' on the immune system, which may ultimately be toggled therapeutically. I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection.", "I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection. Another mRNA under post-transcriptional regulation by Regnase-1 and Roquin is Furin, which encodes a conserved proprotein convertase crucial in human health and disease. Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus HPV , influenza IAV , Ebola EboV , dengue DenV and human immunodeficiency virus HIV .", "Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus HPV , influenza IAV , Ebola EboV , dengue DenV and human immunodeficiency virus HIV . Here, Braun and Sauter review the roles of furin in these processes, as well as the history and future of furin-targeting therapeutics. 7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles MV , zika ZikV and HIV by suppressing furin activity.", "7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles MV , zika ZikV and HIV by suppressing furin activity. 8 Over the coming decade, I expect to see an ever-finer spatiotemporal resolution of host-oriented therapies to achieve safe, effective and broad-spectrum yet costeffective therapies for clinical use. The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world.", "The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world. The MinION nanopore sequencer is one of the latest innovations in this space, enabling direct sequencing in a miniature form factor with only minimal sample preparation and a consumer-grade laptop computer. Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses.", "Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses. 9 While direct sequencing of viral genomic RNA is challenging, this system was recently used to directly sequence an RNA virus genome IAV for the first time. 10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus nCoV / COVID-19 outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account.", "10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus nCoV / COVID-19 outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account. Decades of basic immunology research have provided a near-complete picture of the main armaments in the human antiviral arsenal. Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere.", "Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere. One case in point is the CRISPR/Cas antiviral immune system of prokaryotes, which is now repurposed as a revolutionary gene-editing biotechnology in plants and animals. 11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses NCLDVs , which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions.", "11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses NCLDVs , which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions. 12 Moreover, hundreds of human-and avian-infective viruses such as IAV strain H5N1 are known, but recent efforts indicate the true number may be in the millions and many harbour zoonotic potential. 13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity.", "13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity. Closing this Special Feature, Watanabe and Kawaoka elaborate on neo-virology, an emerging field engaged in cataloguing and characterising this biodiversity through a global consortium. 14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution.", "14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution. When biomedical innovations fall into the 'Valley of Death', patients who are therefore not reached all too often fall with them. Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers.", "Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers. Nevertheless, the road to research translation is winding and is built on a foundation of basic research. Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda.", "Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda. 2 These frame Australia's Medical Research and Innovation Priorities, which include antimicrobial resistance, global health and health security, drug repurposing and translational research infrastructure, 15 capturing many of the key elements of this CTI Special Feature. Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes.", "Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes. To this end, NHMRC has recently taken steps under the International Engagement Strategy 16 to increase cooperation with its counterparts overseas. These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development AMED , tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country.", "These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development AMED , tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country. Given the reciprocal efforts at accelerating bilateral engagement currently underway, 17 the prospects for new areas of international cooperation and mobility have never been more exciting nor urgent. With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity AIFII and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences ConBio conferences in Japan.", "With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity AIFII and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences ConBio conferences in Japan. Both Australia and Japan have strong traditions in immunology and related disciplines, and I predict that the quantity, quality and importance of our bilateral cooperation will accelerate rapidly over the short to medium term. By expanding and cooperatively leveraging our respective research strengths, our efforts may yet solve the many pressing disease, cost and other sustainability issues of our time." ]

[ "nan Text: Globally, recent decades have witnessed a growing disjunction, a 'Valley of Death' 1,2 no less, between broadening strides in fundamental biomedical research and their incommensurate reach into the clinic. Plumbing work on research funding and development pipelines through recent changes in the structure of government funding, 2 new public and private joint ventures and specialist undergraduate and postgraduate courses now aim to incorporate pathways to translation at the earliest stages. Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day.", "Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day. Fuelled by the availability of new research technologies, as well as changing disease, cost and other pressing issues of our time, further growth in this exciting space will undoubtedly continue. Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants.", "Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants. Shaped by the hostvirus immunological 'arms race' and tempered in the forge of deep time, the biodiversity of our world is increasingly being harnessed for new biotechnologies and therapeutics. Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway.", "Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway. In this Clinical & Translational Immunology Special Feature, I illustrate a strategic vision integrating these themes to create new, effective, economical and robust antiviral therapies and immunotherapies, with both the realities and the opportunities afforded to researchers working in our changing world squarely in mind. Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses.", "Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses. Viral RNA polymerisation and reverse transcription enable resistance to treatment by conferring extraordinary genetic diversity. However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information.", "However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information. I coin this evolutionary dilemma the 'information economy paradox'. Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins MMHPs , thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost.", "Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins MMHPs , thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost. 4 I argue this exposes an 'Achilles Heel' that may be safely targeted via host-oriented therapies to impose devastating informational and fitness barriers on escape mutant selection. Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy.", "Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy. Achieving this through drug repurposing will break the vicious cycle of escalating therapeutic development costs and trivial escape mutant selection, both quickly and in multiple places. I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology.", "I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology. 4 I anticipate international efforts in these areas over the coming decade will enable the tapping of useful new biological functions and processes, methods for controlling infection, and the deployment of symbiotic or subclinical viruses in new therapies and biotechnologies that are so crucially needed. Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells.", "Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells. On the flip side, this same process also causes immunopathology when prolonged or deregulated. 5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins RBPs that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications.", "5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins RBPs that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications. 6 These RBPs include tristetraprolin and AUF1, which promote degradation of AU-rich element ARE -containing mRNA; members of the Roquin and Regnase families, which respectively promote or effect degradation of mRNAs harbouring stem-loop structures; and the increasingly apparent role of the RNA methylation machinery in controlling inflammatory mRNA stability. These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection.", "These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection. In this way, mRNA-destabilising RBPs constitute a 'brake' on the immune system, which may ultimately be toggled therapeutically. I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection.", "I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection. Another mRNA under post-transcriptional regulation by Regnase-1 and Roquin is Furin, which encodes a conserved proprotein convertase crucial in human health and disease. Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus HPV , influenza IAV , Ebola EboV , dengue DenV and human immunodeficiency virus HIV .", "Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus HPV , influenza IAV , Ebola EboV , dengue DenV and human immunodeficiency virus HIV . Here, Braun and Sauter review the roles of furin in these processes, as well as the history and future of furin-targeting therapeutics. 7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles MV , zika ZikV and HIV by suppressing furin activity.", "7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles MV , zika ZikV and HIV by suppressing furin activity. 8 Over the coming decade, I expect to see an ever-finer spatiotemporal resolution of host-oriented therapies to achieve safe, effective and broad-spectrum yet costeffective therapies for clinical use. The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world.", "The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world. The MinION nanopore sequencer is one of the latest innovations in this space, enabling direct sequencing in a miniature form factor with only minimal sample preparation and a consumer-grade laptop computer. Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses.", "Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses. 9 While direct sequencing of viral genomic RNA is challenging, this system was recently used to directly sequence an RNA virus genome IAV for the first time. 10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus nCoV / COVID-19 outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account.", "10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus nCoV / COVID-19 outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account. Decades of basic immunology research have provided a near-complete picture of the main armaments in the human antiviral arsenal. Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere.", "Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere. One case in point is the CRISPR/Cas antiviral immune system of prokaryotes, which is now repurposed as a revolutionary gene-editing biotechnology in plants and animals. 11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses NCLDVs , which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions.", "11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses NCLDVs , which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions. 12 Moreover, hundreds of human-and avian-infective viruses such as IAV strain H5N1 are known, but recent efforts indicate the true number may be in the millions and many harbour zoonotic potential. 13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity.", "13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity. Closing this Special Feature, Watanabe and Kawaoka elaborate on neo-virology, an emerging field engaged in cataloguing and characterising this biodiversity through a global consortium. 14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution.", "14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution. When biomedical innovations fall into the 'Valley of Death', patients who are therefore not reached all too often fall with them. Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers.", "Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers. Nevertheless, the road to research translation is winding and is built on a foundation of basic research. Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda.", "Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda. 2 These frame Australia's Medical Research and Innovation Priorities, which include antimicrobial resistance, global health and health security, drug repurposing and translational research infrastructure, 15 capturing many of the key elements of this CTI Special Feature. Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes.", "Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes. To this end, NHMRC has recently taken steps under the International Engagement Strategy 16 to increase cooperation with its counterparts overseas. These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development AMED , tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country.", "These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development AMED , tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country. Given the reciprocal efforts at accelerating bilateral engagement currently underway, 17 the prospects for new areas of international cooperation and mobility have never been more exciting nor urgent. With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity AIFII and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences ConBio conferences in Japan.", "With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity AIFII and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences ConBio conferences in Japan. Both Australia and Japan have strong traditions in immunology and related disciplines, and I predict that the quantity, quality and importance of our bilateral cooperation will accelerate rapidly over the short to medium term. By expanding and cooperatively leveraging our respective research strengths, our efforts may yet solve the many pressing disease, cost and other sustainability issues of our time." ]

[ "nan Text: Globally, recent decades have witnessed a growing disjunction, a 'Valley of Death' 1,2 no less, between broadening strides in fundamental biomedical research and their incommensurate reach into the clinic. Plumbing work on research funding and development pipelines through recent changes in the structure of government funding, 2 new public and private joint ventures and specialist undergraduate and postgraduate courses now aim to incorporate pathways to translation at the earliest stages. Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day.", "Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day. Fuelled by the availability of new research technologies, as well as changing disease, cost and other pressing issues of our time, further growth in this exciting space will undoubtedly continue. Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants.", "Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants. Shaped by the hostvirus immunological 'arms race' and tempered in the forge of deep time, the biodiversity of our world is increasingly being harnessed for new biotechnologies and therapeutics. Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway.", "Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway. In this Clinical & Translational Immunology Special Feature, I illustrate a strategic vision integrating these themes to create new, effective, economical and robust antiviral therapies and immunotherapies, with both the realities and the opportunities afforded to researchers working in our changing world squarely in mind. Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses.", "Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses. Viral RNA polymerisation and reverse transcription enable resistance to treatment by conferring extraordinary genetic diversity. However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information.", "However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information. I coin this evolutionary dilemma the 'information economy paradox'. Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins MMHPs , thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost.", "Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins MMHPs , thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost. 4 I argue this exposes an 'Achilles Heel' that may be safely targeted via host-oriented therapies to impose devastating informational and fitness barriers on escape mutant selection. Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy.", "Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy. Achieving this through drug repurposing will break the vicious cycle of escalating therapeutic development costs and trivial escape mutant selection, both quickly and in multiple places. I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology.", "I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology. 4 I anticipate international efforts in these areas over the coming decade will enable the tapping of useful new biological functions and processes, methods for controlling infection, and the deployment of symbiotic or subclinical viruses in new therapies and biotechnologies that are so crucially needed. Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells.", "Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells. On the flip side, this same process also causes immunopathology when prolonged or deregulated. 5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins RBPs that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications.", "5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins RBPs that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications. 6 These RBPs include tristetraprolin and AUF1, which promote degradation of AU-rich element ARE -containing mRNA; members of the Roquin and Regnase families, which respectively promote or effect degradation of mRNAs harbouring stem-loop structures; and the increasingly apparent role of the RNA methylation machinery in controlling inflammatory mRNA stability. These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection.", "These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection. In this way, mRNA-destabilising RBPs constitute a 'brake' on the immune system, which may ultimately be toggled therapeutically. I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection.", "I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection. Another mRNA under post-transcriptional regulation by Regnase-1 and Roquin is Furin, which encodes a conserved proprotein convertase crucial in human health and disease. Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus HPV , influenza IAV , Ebola EboV , dengue DenV and human immunodeficiency virus HIV .", "Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus HPV , influenza IAV , Ebola EboV , dengue DenV and human immunodeficiency virus HIV . Here, Braun and Sauter review the roles of furin in these processes, as well as the history and future of furin-targeting therapeutics. 7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles MV , zika ZikV and HIV by suppressing furin activity.", "7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles MV , zika ZikV and HIV by suppressing furin activity. 8 Over the coming decade, I expect to see an ever-finer spatiotemporal resolution of host-oriented therapies to achieve safe, effective and broad-spectrum yet costeffective therapies for clinical use. The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world.", "The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world. The MinION nanopore sequencer is one of the latest innovations in this space, enabling direct sequencing in a miniature form factor with only minimal sample preparation and a consumer-grade laptop computer. Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses.", "Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses. 9 While direct sequencing of viral genomic RNA is challenging, this system was recently used to directly sequence an RNA virus genome IAV for the first time. 10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus nCoV / COVID-19 outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account.", "10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus nCoV / COVID-19 outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account. Decades of basic immunology research have provided a near-complete picture of the main armaments in the human antiviral arsenal. Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere.", "Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere. One case in point is the CRISPR/Cas antiviral immune system of prokaryotes, which is now repurposed as a revolutionary gene-editing biotechnology in plants and animals. 11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses NCLDVs , which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions.", "11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses NCLDVs , which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions. 12 Moreover, hundreds of human-and avian-infective viruses such as IAV strain H5N1 are known, but recent efforts indicate the true number may be in the millions and many harbour zoonotic potential. 13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity.", "13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity. Closing this Special Feature, Watanabe and Kawaoka elaborate on neo-virology, an emerging field engaged in cataloguing and characterising this biodiversity through a global consortium. 14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution.", "14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution. When biomedical innovations fall into the 'Valley of Death', patients who are therefore not reached all too often fall with them. Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers.", "Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers. Nevertheless, the road to research translation is winding and is built on a foundation of basic research. Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda.", "Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda. 2 These frame Australia's Medical Research and Innovation Priorities, which include antimicrobial resistance, global health and health security, drug repurposing and translational research infrastructure, 15 capturing many of the key elements of this CTI Special Feature. Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes.", "Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes. To this end, NHMRC has recently taken steps under the International Engagement Strategy 16 to increase cooperation with its counterparts overseas. These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development AMED , tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country.", "These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development AMED , tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country. Given the reciprocal efforts at accelerating bilateral engagement currently underway, 17 the prospects for new areas of international cooperation and mobility have never been more exciting nor urgent. With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity AIFII and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences ConBio conferences in Japan.", "With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity AIFII and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences ConBio conferences in Japan. Both Australia and Japan have strong traditions in immunology and related disciplines, and I predict that the quantity, quality and importance of our bilateral cooperation will accelerate rapidly over the short to medium term. By expanding and cooperatively leveraging our respective research strengths, our efforts may yet solve the many pressing disease, cost and other sustainability issues of our time." ]

[ "nan Text: Globally, recent decades have witnessed a growing disjunction, a 'Valley of Death' 1,2 no less, between broadening strides in fundamental biomedical research and their incommensurate reach into the clinic. Plumbing work on research funding and development pipelines through recent changes in the structure of government funding, 2 new public and private joint ventures and specialist undergraduate and postgraduate courses now aim to incorporate pathways to translation at the earliest stages. Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day.", "Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day. Fuelled by the availability of new research technologies, as well as changing disease, cost and other pressing issues of our time, further growth in this exciting space will undoubtedly continue. Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants.", "Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants. Shaped by the hostvirus immunological 'arms race' and tempered in the forge of deep time, the biodiversity of our world is increasingly being harnessed for new biotechnologies and therapeutics. Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway.", "Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway. In this Clinical & Translational Immunology Special Feature, I illustrate a strategic vision integrating these themes to create new, effective, economical and robust antiviral therapies and immunotherapies, with both the realities and the opportunities afforded to researchers working in our changing world squarely in mind. Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses.", "Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses. Viral RNA polymerisation and reverse transcription enable resistance to treatment by conferring extraordinary genetic diversity. However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information.", "However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information. I coin this evolutionary dilemma the 'information economy paradox'. Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins MMHPs , thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost.", "Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins MMHPs , thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost. 4 I argue this exposes an 'Achilles Heel' that may be safely targeted via host-oriented therapies to impose devastating informational and fitness barriers on escape mutant selection. Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy.", "Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy. Achieving this through drug repurposing will break the vicious cycle of escalating therapeutic development costs and trivial escape mutant selection, both quickly and in multiple places. I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology.", "I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology. 4 I anticipate international efforts in these areas over the coming decade will enable the tapping of useful new biological functions and processes, methods for controlling infection, and the deployment of symbiotic or subclinical viruses in new therapies and biotechnologies that are so crucially needed. Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells.", "Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells. On the flip side, this same process also causes immunopathology when prolonged or deregulated. 5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins RBPs that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications.", "5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins RBPs that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications. 6 These RBPs include tristetraprolin and AUF1, which promote degradation of AU-rich element ARE -containing mRNA; members of the Roquin and Regnase families, which respectively promote or effect degradation of mRNAs harbouring stem-loop structures; and the increasingly apparent role of the RNA methylation machinery in controlling inflammatory mRNA stability. These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection.", "These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection. In this way, mRNA-destabilising RBPs constitute a 'brake' on the immune system, which may ultimately be toggled therapeutically. I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection.", "I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection. Another mRNA under post-transcriptional regulation by Regnase-1 and Roquin is Furin, which encodes a conserved proprotein convertase crucial in human health and disease. Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus HPV , influenza IAV , Ebola EboV , dengue DenV and human immunodeficiency virus HIV .", "Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus HPV , influenza IAV , Ebola EboV , dengue DenV and human immunodeficiency virus HIV . Here, Braun and Sauter review the roles of furin in these processes, as well as the history and future of furin-targeting therapeutics. 7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles MV , zika ZikV and HIV by suppressing furin activity.", "7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles MV , zika ZikV and HIV by suppressing furin activity. 8 Over the coming decade, I expect to see an ever-finer spatiotemporal resolution of host-oriented therapies to achieve safe, effective and broad-spectrum yet costeffective therapies for clinical use. The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world.", "The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world. The MinION nanopore sequencer is one of the latest innovations in this space, enabling direct sequencing in a miniature form factor with only minimal sample preparation and a consumer-grade laptop computer. Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses.", "Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses. 9 While direct sequencing of viral genomic RNA is challenging, this system was recently used to directly sequence an RNA virus genome IAV for the first time. 10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus nCoV / COVID-19 outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account.", "10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus nCoV / COVID-19 outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account. Decades of basic immunology research have provided a near-complete picture of the main armaments in the human antiviral arsenal. Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere.", "Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere. One case in point is the CRISPR/Cas antiviral immune system of prokaryotes, which is now repurposed as a revolutionary gene-editing biotechnology in plants and animals. 11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses NCLDVs , which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions.", "11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses NCLDVs , which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions. 12 Moreover, hundreds of human-and avian-infective viruses such as IAV strain H5N1 are known, but recent efforts indicate the true number may be in the millions and many harbour zoonotic potential. 13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity.", "13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity. Closing this Special Feature, Watanabe and Kawaoka elaborate on neo-virology, an emerging field engaged in cataloguing and characterising this biodiversity through a global consortium. 14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution.", "14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution. When biomedical innovations fall into the 'Valley of Death', patients who are therefore not reached all too often fall with them. Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers.", "Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers. Nevertheless, the road to research translation is winding and is built on a foundation of basic research. Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda.", "Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda. 2 These frame Australia's Medical Research and Innovation Priorities, which include antimicrobial resistance, global health and health security, drug repurposing and translational research infrastructure, 15 capturing many of the key elements of this CTI Special Feature. Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes.", "Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes. To this end, NHMRC has recently taken steps under the International Engagement Strategy 16 to increase cooperation with its counterparts overseas. These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development AMED , tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country.", "These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development AMED , tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country. Given the reciprocal efforts at accelerating bilateral engagement currently underway, 17 the prospects for new areas of international cooperation and mobility have never been more exciting nor urgent. With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity AIFII and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences ConBio conferences in Japan.", "With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity AIFII and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences ConBio conferences in Japan. Both Australia and Japan have strong traditions in immunology and related disciplines, and I predict that the quantity, quality and importance of our bilateral cooperation will accelerate rapidly over the short to medium term. By expanding and cooperatively leveraging our respective research strengths, our efforts may yet solve the many pressing disease, cost and other sustainability issues of our time." ]

[ "nan Text: Globally, recent decades have witnessed a growing disjunction, a 'Valley of Death' 1,2 no less, between broadening strides in fundamental biomedical research and their incommensurate reach into the clinic. Plumbing work on research funding and development pipelines through recent changes in the structure of government funding, 2 new public and private joint ventures and specialist undergraduate and postgraduate courses now aim to incorporate pathways to translation at the earliest stages. Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day.", "Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day. Fuelled by the availability of new research technologies, as well as changing disease, cost and other pressing issues of our time, further growth in this exciting space will undoubtedly continue. Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants.", "Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants. Shaped by the hostvirus immunological 'arms race' and tempered in the forge of deep time, the biodiversity of our world is increasingly being harnessed for new biotechnologies and therapeutics. Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway.", "Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway. In this Clinical & Translational Immunology Special Feature, I illustrate a strategic vision integrating these themes to create new, effective, economical and robust antiviral therapies and immunotherapies, with both the realities and the opportunities afforded to researchers working in our changing world squarely in mind. Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses.", "Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses. Viral RNA polymerisation and reverse transcription enable resistance to treatment by conferring extraordinary genetic diversity. However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information.", "However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information. I coin this evolutionary dilemma the 'information economy paradox'. Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins MMHPs , thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost.", "Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins MMHPs , thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost. 4 I argue this exposes an 'Achilles Heel' that may be safely targeted via host-oriented therapies to impose devastating informational and fitness barriers on escape mutant selection. Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy.", "Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy. Achieving this through drug repurposing will break the vicious cycle of escalating therapeutic development costs and trivial escape mutant selection, both quickly and in multiple places. I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology.", "I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology. 4 I anticipate international efforts in these areas over the coming decade will enable the tapping of useful new biological functions and processes, methods for controlling infection, and the deployment of symbiotic or subclinical viruses in new therapies and biotechnologies that are so crucially needed. Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells.", "Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells. On the flip side, this same process also causes immunopathology when prolonged or deregulated. 5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins RBPs that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications.", "5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins RBPs that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications. 6 These RBPs include tristetraprolin and AUF1, which promote degradation of AU-rich element ARE -containing mRNA; members of the Roquin and Regnase families, which respectively promote or effect degradation of mRNAs harbouring stem-loop structures; and the increasingly apparent role of the RNA methylation machinery in controlling inflammatory mRNA stability. These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection.", "These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection. In this way, mRNA-destabilising RBPs constitute a 'brake' on the immune system, which may ultimately be toggled therapeutically. I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection.", "I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection. Another mRNA under post-transcriptional regulation by Regnase-1 and Roquin is Furin, which encodes a conserved proprotein convertase crucial in human health and disease. Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus HPV , influenza IAV , Ebola EboV , dengue DenV and human immunodeficiency virus HIV .", "Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus HPV , influenza IAV , Ebola EboV , dengue DenV and human immunodeficiency virus HIV . Here, Braun and Sauter review the roles of furin in these processes, as well as the history and future of furin-targeting therapeutics. 7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles MV , zika ZikV and HIV by suppressing furin activity.", "7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles MV , zika ZikV and HIV by suppressing furin activity. 8 Over the coming decade, I expect to see an ever-finer spatiotemporal resolution of host-oriented therapies to achieve safe, effective and broad-spectrum yet costeffective therapies for clinical use. The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world.", "The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world. The MinION nanopore sequencer is one of the latest innovations in this space, enabling direct sequencing in a miniature form factor with only minimal sample preparation and a consumer-grade laptop computer. Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses.", "Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses. 9 While direct sequencing of viral genomic RNA is challenging, this system was recently used to directly sequence an RNA virus genome IAV for the first time. 10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus nCoV / COVID-19 outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account.", "10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus nCoV / COVID-19 outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account. Decades of basic immunology research have provided a near-complete picture of the main armaments in the human antiviral arsenal. Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere.", "Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere. One case in point is the CRISPR/Cas antiviral immune system of prokaryotes, which is now repurposed as a revolutionary gene-editing biotechnology in plants and animals. 11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses NCLDVs , which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions.", "11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses NCLDVs , which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions. 12 Moreover, hundreds of human-and avian-infective viruses such as IAV strain H5N1 are known, but recent efforts indicate the true number may be in the millions and many harbour zoonotic potential. 13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity.", "13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity. Closing this Special Feature, Watanabe and Kawaoka elaborate on neo-virology, an emerging field engaged in cataloguing and characterising this biodiversity through a global consortium. 14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution.", "14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution. When biomedical innovations fall into the 'Valley of Death', patients who are therefore not reached all too often fall with them. Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers.", "Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers. Nevertheless, the road to research translation is winding and is built on a foundation of basic research. Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda.", "Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda. 2 These frame Australia's Medical Research and Innovation Priorities, which include antimicrobial resistance, global health and health security, drug repurposing and translational research infrastructure, 15 capturing many of the key elements of this CTI Special Feature. Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes.", "Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes. To this end, NHMRC has recently taken steps under the International Engagement Strategy 16 to increase cooperation with its counterparts overseas. These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development AMED , tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country.", "These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development AMED , tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country. Given the reciprocal efforts at accelerating bilateral engagement currently underway, 17 the prospects for new areas of international cooperation and mobility have never been more exciting nor urgent. With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity AIFII and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences ConBio conferences in Japan.", "With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity AIFII and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences ConBio conferences in Japan. Both Australia and Japan have strong traditions in immunology and related disciplines, and I predict that the quantity, quality and importance of our bilateral cooperation will accelerate rapidly over the short to medium term. By expanding and cooperatively leveraging our respective research strengths, our efforts may yet solve the many pressing disease, cost and other sustainability issues of our time." ]

[ "nan Text: Globally, recent decades have witnessed a growing disjunction, a 'Valley of Death' 1,2 no less, between broadening strides in fundamental biomedical research and their incommensurate reach into the clinic. Plumbing work on research funding and development pipelines through recent changes in the structure of government funding, 2 new public and private joint ventures and specialist undergraduate and postgraduate courses now aim to incorporate pathways to translation at the earliest stages. Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day.", "Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day. Fuelled by the availability of new research technologies, as well as changing disease, cost and other pressing issues of our time, further growth in this exciting space will undoubtedly continue. Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants.", "Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants. Shaped by the hostvirus immunological 'arms race' and tempered in the forge of deep time, the biodiversity of our world is increasingly being harnessed for new biotechnologies and therapeutics. Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway.", "Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway. In this Clinical & Translational Immunology Special Feature, I illustrate a strategic vision integrating these themes to create new, effective, economical and robust antiviral therapies and immunotherapies, with both the realities and the opportunities afforded to researchers working in our changing world squarely in mind. Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses.", "Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses. Viral RNA polymerisation and reverse transcription enable resistance to treatment by conferring extraordinary genetic diversity. However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information.", "However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information. I coin this evolutionary dilemma the 'information economy paradox'. Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins MMHPs , thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost.", "Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins MMHPs , thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost. 4 I argue this exposes an 'Achilles Heel' that may be safely targeted via host-oriented therapies to impose devastating informational and fitness barriers on escape mutant selection. Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy.", "Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy. Achieving this through drug repurposing will break the vicious cycle of escalating therapeutic development costs and trivial escape mutant selection, both quickly and in multiple places. I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology.", "I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology. 4 I anticipate international efforts in these areas over the coming decade will enable the tapping of useful new biological functions and processes, methods for controlling infection, and the deployment of symbiotic or subclinical viruses in new therapies and biotechnologies that are so crucially needed. Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells.", "Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells. On the flip side, this same process also causes immunopathology when prolonged or deregulated. 5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins RBPs that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications.", "5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins RBPs that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications. 6 These RBPs include tristetraprolin and AUF1, which promote degradation of AU-rich element ARE -containing mRNA; members of the Roquin and Regnase families, which respectively promote or effect degradation of mRNAs harbouring stem-loop structures; and the increasingly apparent role of the RNA methylation machinery in controlling inflammatory mRNA stability. These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection.", "These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection. In this way, mRNA-destabilising RBPs constitute a 'brake' on the immune system, which may ultimately be toggled therapeutically. I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection.", "I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection. Another mRNA under post-transcriptional regulation by Regnase-1 and Roquin is Furin, which encodes a conserved proprotein convertase crucial in human health and disease. Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus HPV , influenza IAV , Ebola EboV , dengue DenV and human immunodeficiency virus HIV .", "Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus HPV , influenza IAV , Ebola EboV , dengue DenV and human immunodeficiency virus HIV . Here, Braun and Sauter review the roles of furin in these processes, as well as the history and future of furin-targeting therapeutics. 7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles MV , zika ZikV and HIV by suppressing furin activity.", "7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles MV , zika ZikV and HIV by suppressing furin activity. 8 Over the coming decade, I expect to see an ever-finer spatiotemporal resolution of host-oriented therapies to achieve safe, effective and broad-spectrum yet costeffective therapies for clinical use. The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world.", "The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world. The MinION nanopore sequencer is one of the latest innovations in this space, enabling direct sequencing in a miniature form factor with only minimal sample preparation and a consumer-grade laptop computer. Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses.", "Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses. 9 While direct sequencing of viral genomic RNA is challenging, this system was recently used to directly sequence an RNA virus genome IAV for the first time. 10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus nCoV / COVID-19 outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account.", "10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus nCoV / COVID-19 outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account. Decades of basic immunology research have provided a near-complete picture of the main armaments in the human antiviral arsenal. Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere.", "Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere. One case in point is the CRISPR/Cas antiviral immune system of prokaryotes, which is now repurposed as a revolutionary gene-editing biotechnology in plants and animals. 11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses NCLDVs , which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions.", "11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses NCLDVs , which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions. 12 Moreover, hundreds of human-and avian-infective viruses such as IAV strain H5N1 are known, but recent efforts indicate the true number may be in the millions and many harbour zoonotic potential. 13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity.", "13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity. Closing this Special Feature, Watanabe and Kawaoka elaborate on neo-virology, an emerging field engaged in cataloguing and characterising this biodiversity through a global consortium. 14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution.", "14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution. When biomedical innovations fall into the 'Valley of Death', patients who are therefore not reached all too often fall with them. Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers.", "Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers. Nevertheless, the road to research translation is winding and is built on a foundation of basic research. Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda.", "Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda. 2 These frame Australia's Medical Research and Innovation Priorities, which include antimicrobial resistance, global health and health security, drug repurposing and translational research infrastructure, 15 capturing many of the key elements of this CTI Special Feature. Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes.", "Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes. To this end, NHMRC has recently taken steps under the International Engagement Strategy 16 to increase cooperation with its counterparts overseas. These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development AMED , tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country.", "These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development AMED , tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country. Given the reciprocal efforts at accelerating bilateral engagement currently underway, 17 the prospects for new areas of international cooperation and mobility have never been more exciting nor urgent. With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity AIFII and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences ConBio conferences in Japan.", "With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity AIFII and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences ConBio conferences in Japan. Both Australia and Japan have strong traditions in immunology and related disciplines, and I predict that the quantity, quality and importance of our bilateral cooperation will accelerate rapidly over the short to medium term. By expanding and cooperatively leveraging our respective research strengths, our efforts may yet solve the many pressing disease, cost and other sustainability issues of our time." ]

[ "nan Text: Globally, recent decades have witnessed a growing disjunction, a 'Valley of Death' 1,2 no less, between broadening strides in fundamental biomedical research and their incommensurate reach into the clinic. Plumbing work on research funding and development pipelines through recent changes in the structure of government funding, 2 new public and private joint ventures and specialist undergraduate and postgraduate courses now aim to incorporate pathways to translation at the earliest stages. Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day.", "Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day. Fuelled by the availability of new research technologies, as well as changing disease, cost and other pressing issues of our time, further growth in this exciting space will undoubtedly continue. Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants.", "Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants. Shaped by the hostvirus immunological 'arms race' and tempered in the forge of deep time, the biodiversity of our world is increasingly being harnessed for new biotechnologies and therapeutics. Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway.", "Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway. In this Clinical & Translational Immunology Special Feature, I illustrate a strategic vision integrating these themes to create new, effective, economical and robust antiviral therapies and immunotherapies, with both the realities and the opportunities afforded to researchers working in our changing world squarely in mind. Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses.", "Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses. Viral RNA polymerisation and reverse transcription enable resistance to treatment by conferring extraordinary genetic diversity. However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information.", "However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information. I coin this evolutionary dilemma the 'information economy paradox'. Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins MMHPs , thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost.", "Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins MMHPs , thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost. 4 I argue this exposes an 'Achilles Heel' that may be safely targeted via host-oriented therapies to impose devastating informational and fitness barriers on escape mutant selection. Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy.", "Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy. Achieving this through drug repurposing will break the vicious cycle of escalating therapeutic development costs and trivial escape mutant selection, both quickly and in multiple places. I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology.", "I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology. 4 I anticipate international efforts in these areas over the coming decade will enable the tapping of useful new biological functions and processes, methods for controlling infection, and the deployment of symbiotic or subclinical viruses in new therapies and biotechnologies that are so crucially needed. Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells.", "Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells. On the flip side, this same process also causes immunopathology when prolonged or deregulated. 5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins RBPs that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications.", "5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins RBPs that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications. 6 These RBPs include tristetraprolin and AUF1, which promote degradation of AU-rich element ARE -containing mRNA; members of the Roquin and Regnase families, which respectively promote or effect degradation of mRNAs harbouring stem-loop structures; and the increasingly apparent role of the RNA methylation machinery in controlling inflammatory mRNA stability. These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection.", "These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection. In this way, mRNA-destabilising RBPs constitute a 'brake' on the immune system, which may ultimately be toggled therapeutically. I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection.", "I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection. Another mRNA under post-transcriptional regulation by Regnase-1 and Roquin is Furin, which encodes a conserved proprotein convertase crucial in human health and disease. Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus HPV , influenza IAV , Ebola EboV , dengue DenV and human immunodeficiency virus HIV .", "Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus HPV , influenza IAV , Ebola EboV , dengue DenV and human immunodeficiency virus HIV . Here, Braun and Sauter review the roles of furin in these processes, as well as the history and future of furin-targeting therapeutics. 7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles MV , zika ZikV and HIV by suppressing furin activity.", "7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles MV , zika ZikV and HIV by suppressing furin activity. 8 Over the coming decade, I expect to see an ever-finer spatiotemporal resolution of host-oriented therapies to achieve safe, effective and broad-spectrum yet costeffective therapies for clinical use. The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world.", "The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world. The MinION nanopore sequencer is one of the latest innovations in this space, enabling direct sequencing in a miniature form factor with only minimal sample preparation and a consumer-grade laptop computer. Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses.", "Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses. 9 While direct sequencing of viral genomic RNA is challenging, this system was recently used to directly sequence an RNA virus genome IAV for the first time. 10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus nCoV / COVID-19 outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account.", "10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus nCoV / COVID-19 outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account. Decades of basic immunology research have provided a near-complete picture of the main armaments in the human antiviral arsenal. Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere.", "Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere. One case in point is the CRISPR/Cas antiviral immune system of prokaryotes, which is now repurposed as a revolutionary gene-editing biotechnology in plants and animals. 11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses NCLDVs , which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions.", "11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses NCLDVs , which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions. 12 Moreover, hundreds of human-and avian-infective viruses such as IAV strain H5N1 are known, but recent efforts indicate the true number may be in the millions and many harbour zoonotic potential. 13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity.", "13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity. Closing this Special Feature, Watanabe and Kawaoka elaborate on neo-virology, an emerging field engaged in cataloguing and characterising this biodiversity through a global consortium. 14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution.", "14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution. When biomedical innovations fall into the 'Valley of Death', patients who are therefore not reached all too often fall with them. Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers.", "Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers. Nevertheless, the road to research translation is winding and is built on a foundation of basic research. Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda.", "Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda. 2 These frame Australia's Medical Research and Innovation Priorities, which include antimicrobial resistance, global health and health security, drug repurposing and translational research infrastructure, 15 capturing many of the key elements of this CTI Special Feature. Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes.", "Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes. To this end, NHMRC has recently taken steps under the International Engagement Strategy 16 to increase cooperation with its counterparts overseas. These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development AMED , tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country.", "These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development AMED , tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country. Given the reciprocal efforts at accelerating bilateral engagement currently underway, 17 the prospects for new areas of international cooperation and mobility have never been more exciting nor urgent. With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity AIFII and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences ConBio conferences in Japan.", "With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity AIFII and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences ConBio conferences in Japan. Both Australia and Japan have strong traditions in immunology and related disciplines, and I predict that the quantity, quality and importance of our bilateral cooperation will accelerate rapidly over the short to medium term. By expanding and cooperatively leveraging our respective research strengths, our efforts may yet solve the many pressing disease, cost and other sustainability issues of our time." ]

[ "nan Text: Globally, recent decades have witnessed a growing disjunction, a 'Valley of Death' 1,2 no less, between broadening strides in fundamental biomedical research and their incommensurate reach into the clinic. Plumbing work on research funding and development pipelines through recent changes in the structure of government funding, 2 new public and private joint ventures and specialist undergraduate and postgraduate courses now aim to incorporate pathways to translation at the earliest stages. Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day.", "Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day. Fuelled by the availability of new research technologies, as well as changing disease, cost and other pressing issues of our time, further growth in this exciting space will undoubtedly continue. Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants.", "Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants. Shaped by the hostvirus immunological 'arms race' and tempered in the forge of deep time, the biodiversity of our world is increasingly being harnessed for new biotechnologies and therapeutics. Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway.", "Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway. In this Clinical & Translational Immunology Special Feature, I illustrate a strategic vision integrating these themes to create new, effective, economical and robust antiviral therapies and immunotherapies, with both the realities and the opportunities afforded to researchers working in our changing world squarely in mind. Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses.", "Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses. Viral RNA polymerisation and reverse transcription enable resistance to treatment by conferring extraordinary genetic diversity. However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information.", "However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information. I coin this evolutionary dilemma the 'information economy paradox'. Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins MMHPs , thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost.", "Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins MMHPs , thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost. 4 I argue this exposes an 'Achilles Heel' that may be safely targeted via host-oriented therapies to impose devastating informational and fitness barriers on escape mutant selection. Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy.", "Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy. Achieving this through drug repurposing will break the vicious cycle of escalating therapeutic development costs and trivial escape mutant selection, both quickly and in multiple places. I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology.", "I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology. 4 I anticipate international efforts in these areas over the coming decade will enable the tapping of useful new biological functions and processes, methods for controlling infection, and the deployment of symbiotic or subclinical viruses in new therapies and biotechnologies that are so crucially needed. Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells.", "Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells. On the flip side, this same process also causes immunopathology when prolonged or deregulated. 5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins RBPs that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications.", "5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins RBPs that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications. 6 These RBPs include tristetraprolin and AUF1, which promote degradation of AU-rich element ARE -containing mRNA; members of the Roquin and Regnase families, which respectively promote or effect degradation of mRNAs harbouring stem-loop structures; and the increasingly apparent role of the RNA methylation machinery in controlling inflammatory mRNA stability. These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection.", "These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection. In this way, mRNA-destabilising RBPs constitute a 'brake' on the immune system, which may ultimately be toggled therapeutically. I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection.", "I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection. Another mRNA under post-transcriptional regulation by Regnase-1 and Roquin is Furin, which encodes a conserved proprotein convertase crucial in human health and disease. Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus HPV , influenza IAV , Ebola EboV , dengue DenV and human immunodeficiency virus HIV .", "Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus HPV , influenza IAV , Ebola EboV , dengue DenV and human immunodeficiency virus HIV . Here, Braun and Sauter review the roles of furin in these processes, as well as the history and future of furin-targeting therapeutics. 7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles MV , zika ZikV and HIV by suppressing furin activity.", "7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles MV , zika ZikV and HIV by suppressing furin activity. 8 Over the coming decade, I expect to see an ever-finer spatiotemporal resolution of host-oriented therapies to achieve safe, effective and broad-spectrum yet costeffective therapies for clinical use. The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world.", "The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world. The MinION nanopore sequencer is one of the latest innovations in this space, enabling direct sequencing in a miniature form factor with only minimal sample preparation and a consumer-grade laptop computer. Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses.", "Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses. 9 While direct sequencing of viral genomic RNA is challenging, this system was recently used to directly sequence an RNA virus genome IAV for the first time. 10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus nCoV / COVID-19 outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account.", "10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus nCoV / COVID-19 outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account. Decades of basic immunology research have provided a near-complete picture of the main armaments in the human antiviral arsenal. Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere.", "Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere. One case in point is the CRISPR/Cas antiviral immune system of prokaryotes, which is now repurposed as a revolutionary gene-editing biotechnology in plants and animals. 11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses NCLDVs , which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions.", "11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses NCLDVs , which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions. 12 Moreover, hundreds of human-and avian-infective viruses such as IAV strain H5N1 are known, but recent efforts indicate the true number may be in the millions and many harbour zoonotic potential. 13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity.", "13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity. Closing this Special Feature, Watanabe and Kawaoka elaborate on neo-virology, an emerging field engaged in cataloguing and characterising this biodiversity through a global consortium. 14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution.", "14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution. When biomedical innovations fall into the 'Valley of Death', patients who are therefore not reached all too often fall with them. Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers.", "Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers. Nevertheless, the road to research translation is winding and is built on a foundation of basic research. Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda.", "Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda. 2 These frame Australia's Medical Research and Innovation Priorities, which include antimicrobial resistance, global health and health security, drug repurposing and translational research infrastructure, 15 capturing many of the key elements of this CTI Special Feature. Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes.", "Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes. To this end, NHMRC has recently taken steps under the International Engagement Strategy 16 to increase cooperation with its counterparts overseas. These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development AMED , tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country.", "These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development AMED , tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country. Given the reciprocal efforts at accelerating bilateral engagement currently underway, 17 the prospects for new areas of international cooperation and mobility have never been more exciting nor urgent. With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity AIFII and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences ConBio conferences in Japan.", "With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity AIFII and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences ConBio conferences in Japan. Both Australia and Japan have strong traditions in immunology and related disciplines, and I predict that the quantity, quality and importance of our bilateral cooperation will accelerate rapidly over the short to medium term. By expanding and cooperatively leveraging our respective research strengths, our efforts may yet solve the many pressing disease, cost and other sustainability issues of our time." ]

[ "nan Text: pecially with next-generation sequencing NGS for new virus genome discovery, e.g., Ruben Donis et al. sequenced a bat-derived influenza virus genome by using NGS in 2012, raising a serious question as to whether or not our seasonal or pandemic flu might have another reservoir host. Chen and colleagues confirmed the SFTSV independently by using NGS.", "Chen and colleagues confirmed the SFTSV independently by using NGS. Indeed, metagenomics analysis has yielded a great deal of new viruses, especially from the environment. Our actively hunting for new viruses has made some significant contributions for our understanding of virus ecology, pathogenesis and interspecies transmission.", "Our actively hunting for new viruses has made some significant contributions for our understanding of virus ecology, pathogenesis and interspecies transmission. Science China Life Sciences has focused on this hot topic in the event of the H7N9 outbreak after a comprehensive overview of the topic addressing HPAIV H5N1 in 2009 in the journal . In this issue, six groups have been invited to present their recent findings on the emerging viruses, in addition to a previous report on H7N9 .", "In this issue, six groups have been invited to present their recent findings on the emerging viruses, in addition to a previous report on H7N9 . Shi reviewed recent discoveries of new viruses or virus genomes from bat. Bat is believed to harbor many more viruses than we ever thought as a reservoir host or even a susceptible host .", "Bat is believed to harbor many more viruses than we ever thought as a reservoir host or even a susceptible host . After the SARS-CoV virus, we have been actively seeking for new coronaviruses from bat and have yielded many of them, including potential human infecting HKU-1, 4, 5 and 9 . Recent MERS-CoV infection is another example for severe disease caused by used-to-be-less pathogenic coronaviruses.", "Recent MERS-CoV infection is another example for severe disease caused by used-to-be-less pathogenic coronaviruses. Shi and colleagues by using NGS have discovered many unknown animal viruses from bat, especially some important paramyxoviruses and reoviruses. Filovirus has also been identified in bat with potential severe outcomes.", "Filovirus has also been identified in bat with potential severe outcomes. Lyssaviruses with many genotypes, including rabies virus in the Rhabdoviridae family have been linked with severe fatal human cases, even in the developed countries, including Australia, with the bites of bats in the city . The potential roles of these viruses in bats for interspecies transmission are yet to be elucidated.", "The potential roles of these viruses in bats for interspecies transmission are yet to be elucidated. Tan and colleagues specifically focused on the newly-emerged MERS-CoV. The virus was identified in 2012 in the Middle East with some exported cases to Europe. In 2013 the virus has been re-emerging and expanding its borders to more European countries.", "In 2013 the virus has been re-emerging and expanding its borders to more European countries. In the initial diagnosis, the pan-coronavirus real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction RT-PCR assay played a very important role for the identification of the causative agents. By using this method, scientists detected an expected-size PCR fragment for the corresponding conserved region of ORF1b of the replicase gene of a coronavirus.", "By using this method, scientists detected an expected-size PCR fragment for the corresponding conserved region of ORF1b of the replicase gene of a coronavirus. This is another example that molecular biology methods played for the discovery of new pathogens. Soon the receptor used by MERS-CoV to enter the host cells was identified and the molecular basis of the receptor binding to the virus was also elucidated recently .", "Soon the receptor used by MERS-CoV to enter the host cells was identified and the molecular basis of the receptor binding to the virus was also elucidated recently . Enterovirus has been known as serious human pathogens for a long time but their significance to the public health has been emphasized by the emergence of enterovirus 71 in 1998 as a serious pathogenic agents for children in Taiwan and re-emerged in mainland China in 2008 . In this issue, Duan and colleagues summarized the findings of new enteroviruses by using NGS.", "In this issue, Duan and colleagues summarized the findings of new enteroviruses by using NGS. Because of the application of new NGS technology they also challenged the Koch's postulates. A new model of Koch's postulates, named the metagenomic Koch's postulates, has provided guidance for the study of the pathogenicity of novel viruses.", "A new model of Koch's postulates, named the metagenomic Koch's postulates, has provided guidance for the study of the pathogenicity of novel viruses. The review also provided a detailed description of the NGS and related molecular methods for the virus discovery followed by a list of new enteroviruses found in human feces. These include viruses in the family of Piconaviridae, Parvoviridae, Circoviridae, Astroviridae and Polyomaviridae.", "These include viruses in the family of Piconaviridae, Parvoviridae, Circoviridae, Astroviridae and Polyomaviridae. Yu Xue-Jie and colleagues reviewed the new bunyavirus, SFTSV, identified in China. As the virus discoverers, they have overviewed the whole process of the discovery, which is helpful and meaningful for the new virus discoveries in the future.", "As the virus discoverers, they have overviewed the whole process of the discovery, which is helpful and meaningful for the new virus discoveries in the future. The disease caused by SFTSV, with a CFR of 12%, had been in China for a couple of years before the causative agent was finally identified. There are still a lot of questions remained unknown for this new virus and vigorous studies are in great need.", "There are still a lot of questions remained unknown for this new virus and vigorous studies are in great need. The transmission route of the virus has not been clarified but tick as vector is suspected. Domestic and wild animals, e.g., goats, boars, cattle and dogs, are believed to be the virus-amplifying hosts.", "Domestic and wild animals, e.g., goats, boars, cattle and dogs, are believed to be the virus-amplifying hosts. Therefore the effective control measures are still under evaluation. Vaccines protecting the SFTSV infection are under its way in Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.", "Vaccines protecting the SFTSV infection are under its way in Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Recently a similar virus has been identified in both Japan and USA a new name of Heartland virus was proposed for the US virus . In addition to new viruses infecting human beings, some new viruses infecting animals but their public health significance needing to be further evaluated, have also been discovered.", "In addition to new viruses infecting human beings, some new viruses infecting animals but their public health significance needing to be further evaluated, have also been discovered. The new flavivirus, duck egg-drop syndrome virus DEDSV , is a good example. Su and colleagues reviewed the characterization of the DEDSV and its disease form in this issue.", "Su and colleagues reviewed the characterization of the DEDSV and its disease form in this issue. The virus was found closely-related to a long-time-known virus, Tembusu virus . Initially, the disease was only found in egg-raising ducks but soon it was found in pigeons, chickens and geese .", "Initially, the disease was only found in egg-raising ducks but soon it was found in pigeons, chickens and geese . Yet the transmission vector, though mosquitoes are suspected, has not been identified. Due to the public health concerns of its related viruses, potential human infection of DEDSV should be evaluated.", "Due to the public health concerns of its related viruses, potential human infection of DEDSV should be evaluated. Research on insect viruses is reviving in recent years. In this issue, Zhou and colleagues reviewed the newly-identified insect viruses in China. Insects are the largest group of animals on the Earth therefore they also carry many more viruses.", "Insects are the largest group of animals on the Earth therefore they also carry many more viruses. Studies on these viruses can provide useful knowledge for our understanding about animal or human infecting viruses. More importantly, modification and application of insect-infecting viruses can be used as effective biologicals for the control of insect pest.", "More importantly, modification and application of insect-infecting viruses can be used as effective biologicals for the control of insect pest. The new viruses identified include Wuhan nodavirus WhNV , a member of family Nodaviridae; Dendrolimus punctatus tetravirus DpTV , a new member of the genus Omegatetravirus of the family Alphatetravirida; Ectropis obliqua picorna-like virus EoV , a positive-strand RNA virus causing a lethal granulosis infection in the larvae of the tea looper Ectropis obliqua , the virus a member of the Flaviridae family. While we are enjoying ourselves with the civilization of modern societies, the ecology has ever been changing.", "While we are enjoying ourselves with the civilization of modern societies, the ecology has ever been changing. Human beings encounter more ecology-climate-changing problems, including the zoonotic pathogens. We have to face some unknown pathogenic agents passively. To get ourselves well prepared we also ought to actively hunt for unknown pathogens.", "To get ourselves well prepared we also ought to actively hunt for unknown pathogens. Prediction and pre-warning can only be realized by knowing more about the unknown. This is especially true for infectious agents." ]

[ "nan Text: pecially with next-generation sequencing NGS for new virus genome discovery, e.g., Ruben Donis et al. sequenced a bat-derived influenza virus genome by using NGS in 2012, raising a serious question as to whether or not our seasonal or pandemic flu might have another reservoir host. Chen and colleagues confirmed the SFTSV independently by using NGS.", "Chen and colleagues confirmed the SFTSV independently by using NGS. Indeed, metagenomics analysis has yielded a great deal of new viruses, especially from the environment. Our actively hunting for new viruses has made some significant contributions for our understanding of virus ecology, pathogenesis and interspecies transmission.", "Our actively hunting for new viruses has made some significant contributions for our understanding of virus ecology, pathogenesis and interspecies transmission. Science China Life Sciences has focused on this hot topic in the event of the H7N9 outbreak after a comprehensive overview of the topic addressing HPAIV H5N1 in 2009 in the journal . In this issue, six groups have been invited to present their recent findings on the emerging viruses, in addition to a previous report on H7N9 .", "In this issue, six groups have been invited to present their recent findings on the emerging viruses, in addition to a previous report on H7N9 . Shi reviewed recent discoveries of new viruses or virus genomes from bat. Bat is believed to harbor many more viruses than we ever thought as a reservoir host or even a susceptible host .", "Bat is believed to harbor many more viruses than we ever thought as a reservoir host or even a susceptible host . After the SARS-CoV virus, we have been actively seeking for new coronaviruses from bat and have yielded many of them, including potential human infecting HKU-1, 4, 5 and 9 . Recent MERS-CoV infection is another example for severe disease caused by used-to-be-less pathogenic coronaviruses.", "Recent MERS-CoV infection is another example for severe disease caused by used-to-be-less pathogenic coronaviruses. Shi and colleagues by using NGS have discovered many unknown animal viruses from bat, especially some important paramyxoviruses and reoviruses. Filovirus has also been identified in bat with potential severe outcomes.", "Filovirus has also been identified in bat with potential severe outcomes. Lyssaviruses with many genotypes, including rabies virus in the Rhabdoviridae family have been linked with severe fatal human cases, even in the developed countries, including Australia, with the bites of bats in the city . The potential roles of these viruses in bats for interspecies transmission are yet to be elucidated.", "The potential roles of these viruses in bats for interspecies transmission are yet to be elucidated. Tan and colleagues specifically focused on the newly-emerged MERS-CoV. The virus was identified in 2012 in the Middle East with some exported cases to Europe. In 2013 the virus has been re-emerging and expanding its borders to more European countries.", "In 2013 the virus has been re-emerging and expanding its borders to more European countries. In the initial diagnosis, the pan-coronavirus real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction RT-PCR assay played a very important role for the identification of the causative agents. By using this method, scientists detected an expected-size PCR fragment for the corresponding conserved region of ORF1b of the replicase gene of a coronavirus.", "By using this method, scientists detected an expected-size PCR fragment for the corresponding conserved region of ORF1b of the replicase gene of a coronavirus. This is another example that molecular biology methods played for the discovery of new pathogens. Soon the receptor used by MERS-CoV to enter the host cells was identified and the molecular basis of the receptor binding to the virus was also elucidated recently .", "Soon the receptor used by MERS-CoV to enter the host cells was identified and the molecular basis of the receptor binding to the virus was also elucidated recently . Enterovirus has been known as serious human pathogens for a long time but their significance to the public health has been emphasized by the emergence of enterovirus 71 in 1998 as a serious pathogenic agents for children in Taiwan and re-emerged in mainland China in 2008 . In this issue, Duan and colleagues summarized the findings of new enteroviruses by using NGS.", "In this issue, Duan and colleagues summarized the findings of new enteroviruses by using NGS. Because of the application of new NGS technology they also challenged the Koch's postulates. A new model of Koch's postulates, named the metagenomic Koch's postulates, has provided guidance for the study of the pathogenicity of novel viruses.", "A new model of Koch's postulates, named the metagenomic Koch's postulates, has provided guidance for the study of the pathogenicity of novel viruses. The review also provided a detailed description of the NGS and related molecular methods for the virus discovery followed by a list of new enteroviruses found in human feces. These include viruses in the family of Piconaviridae, Parvoviridae, Circoviridae, Astroviridae and Polyomaviridae.", "These include viruses in the family of Piconaviridae, Parvoviridae, Circoviridae, Astroviridae and Polyomaviridae. Yu Xue-Jie and colleagues reviewed the new bunyavirus, SFTSV, identified in China. As the virus discoverers, they have overviewed the whole process of the discovery, which is helpful and meaningful for the new virus discoveries in the future.", "As the virus discoverers, they have overviewed the whole process of the discovery, which is helpful and meaningful for the new virus discoveries in the future. The disease caused by SFTSV, with a CFR of 12%, had been in China for a couple of years before the causative agent was finally identified. There are still a lot of questions remained unknown for this new virus and vigorous studies are in great need.", "There are still a lot of questions remained unknown for this new virus and vigorous studies are in great need. The transmission route of the virus has not been clarified but tick as vector is suspected. Domestic and wild animals, e.g., goats, boars, cattle and dogs, are believed to be the virus-amplifying hosts.", "Domestic and wild animals, e.g., goats, boars, cattle and dogs, are believed to be the virus-amplifying hosts. Therefore the effective control measures are still under evaluation. Vaccines protecting the SFTSV infection are under its way in Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.", "Vaccines protecting the SFTSV infection are under its way in Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Recently a similar virus has been identified in both Japan and USA a new name of Heartland virus was proposed for the US virus . In addition to new viruses infecting human beings, some new viruses infecting animals but their public health significance needing to be further evaluated, have also been discovered.", "In addition to new viruses infecting human beings, some new viruses infecting animals but their public health significance needing to be further evaluated, have also been discovered. The new flavivirus, duck egg-drop syndrome virus DEDSV , is a good example. Su and colleagues reviewed the characterization of the DEDSV and its disease form in this issue.", "Su and colleagues reviewed the characterization of the DEDSV and its disease form in this issue. The virus was found closely-related to a long-time-known virus, Tembusu virus . Initially, the disease was only found in egg-raising ducks but soon it was found in pigeons, chickens and geese .", "Initially, the disease was only found in egg-raising ducks but soon it was found in pigeons, chickens and geese . Yet the transmission vector, though mosquitoes are suspected, has not been identified. Due to the public health concerns of its related viruses, potential human infection of DEDSV should be evaluated.", "Due to the public health concerns of its related viruses, potential human infection of DEDSV should be evaluated. Research on insect viruses is reviving in recent years. In this issue, Zhou and colleagues reviewed the newly-identified insect viruses in China. Insects are the largest group of animals on the Earth therefore they also carry many more viruses.", "Insects are the largest group of animals on the Earth therefore they also carry many more viruses. Studies on these viruses can provide useful knowledge for our understanding about animal or human infecting viruses. More importantly, modification and application of insect-infecting viruses can be used as effective biologicals for the control of insect pest.", "More importantly, modification and application of insect-infecting viruses can be used as effective biologicals for the control of insect pest. The new viruses identified include Wuhan nodavirus WhNV , a member of family Nodaviridae; Dendrolimus punctatus tetravirus DpTV , a new member of the genus Omegatetravirus of the family Alphatetravirida; Ectropis obliqua picorna-like virus EoV , a positive-strand RNA virus causing a lethal granulosis infection in the larvae of the tea looper Ectropis obliqua , the virus a member of the Flaviridae family. While we are enjoying ourselves with the civilization of modern societies, the ecology has ever been changing.", "While we are enjoying ourselves with the civilization of modern societies, the ecology has ever been changing. Human beings encounter more ecology-climate-changing problems, including the zoonotic pathogens. We have to face some unknown pathogenic agents passively. To get ourselves well prepared we also ought to actively hunt for unknown pathogens.", "To get ourselves well prepared we also ought to actively hunt for unknown pathogens. Prediction and pre-warning can only be realized by knowing more about the unknown. This is especially true for infectious agents." ]

[ "nan Text: pecially with next-generation sequencing NGS for new virus genome discovery, e.g., Ruben Donis et al. sequenced a bat-derived influenza virus genome by using NGS in 2012, raising a serious question as to whether or not our seasonal or pandemic flu might have another reservoir host. Chen and colleagues confirmed the SFTSV independently by using NGS.", "Chen and colleagues confirmed the SFTSV independently by using NGS. Indeed, metagenomics analysis has yielded a great deal of new viruses, especially from the environment. Our actively hunting for new viruses has made some significant contributions for our understanding of virus ecology, pathogenesis and interspecies transmission.", "Our actively hunting for new viruses has made some significant contributions for our understanding of virus ecology, pathogenesis and interspecies transmission. Science China Life Sciences has focused on this hot topic in the event of the H7N9 outbreak after a comprehensive overview of the topic addressing HPAIV H5N1 in 2009 in the journal . In this issue, six groups have been invited to present their recent findings on the emerging viruses, in addition to a previous report on H7N9 .", "In this issue, six groups have been invited to present their recent findings on the emerging viruses, in addition to a previous report on H7N9 . Shi reviewed recent discoveries of new viruses or virus genomes from bat. Bat is believed to harbor many more viruses than we ever thought as a reservoir host or even a susceptible host .", "Bat is believed to harbor many more viruses than we ever thought as a reservoir host or even a susceptible host . After the SARS-CoV virus, we have been actively seeking for new coronaviruses from bat and have yielded many of them, including potential human infecting HKU-1, 4, 5 and 9 . Recent MERS-CoV infection is another example for severe disease caused by used-to-be-less pathogenic coronaviruses.", "Recent MERS-CoV infection is another example for severe disease caused by used-to-be-less pathogenic coronaviruses. Shi and colleagues by using NGS have discovered many unknown animal viruses from bat, especially some important paramyxoviruses and reoviruses. Filovirus has also been identified in bat with potential severe outcomes.", "Filovirus has also been identified in bat with potential severe outcomes. Lyssaviruses with many genotypes, including rabies virus in the Rhabdoviridae family have been linked with severe fatal human cases, even in the developed countries, including Australia, with the bites of bats in the city . The potential roles of these viruses in bats for interspecies transmission are yet to be elucidated.", "The potential roles of these viruses in bats for interspecies transmission are yet to be elucidated. Tan and colleagues specifically focused on the newly-emerged MERS-CoV. The virus was identified in 2012 in the Middle East with some exported cases to Europe. In 2013 the virus has been re-emerging and expanding its borders to more European countries.", "In 2013 the virus has been re-emerging and expanding its borders to more European countries. In the initial diagnosis, the pan-coronavirus real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction RT-PCR assay played a very important role for the identification of the causative agents. By using this method, scientists detected an expected-size PCR fragment for the corresponding conserved region of ORF1b of the replicase gene of a coronavirus.", "By using this method, scientists detected an expected-size PCR fragment for the corresponding conserved region of ORF1b of the replicase gene of a coronavirus. This is another example that molecular biology methods played for the discovery of new pathogens. Soon the receptor used by MERS-CoV to enter the host cells was identified and the molecular basis of the receptor binding to the virus was also elucidated recently .", "Soon the receptor used by MERS-CoV to enter the host cells was identified and the molecular basis of the receptor binding to the virus was also elucidated recently . Enterovirus has been known as serious human pathogens for a long time but their significance to the public health has been emphasized by the emergence of enterovirus 71 in 1998 as a serious pathogenic agents for children in Taiwan and re-emerged in mainland China in 2008 . In this issue, Duan and colleagues summarized the findings of new enteroviruses by using NGS.", "In this issue, Duan and colleagues summarized the findings of new enteroviruses by using NGS. Because of the application of new NGS technology they also challenged the Koch's postulates. A new model of Koch's postulates, named the metagenomic Koch's postulates, has provided guidance for the study of the pathogenicity of novel viruses.", "A new model of Koch's postulates, named the metagenomic Koch's postulates, has provided guidance for the study of the pathogenicity of novel viruses. The review also provided a detailed description of the NGS and related molecular methods for the virus discovery followed by a list of new enteroviruses found in human feces. These include viruses in the family of Piconaviridae, Parvoviridae, Circoviridae, Astroviridae and Polyomaviridae.", "These include viruses in the family of Piconaviridae, Parvoviridae, Circoviridae, Astroviridae and Polyomaviridae. Yu Xue-Jie and colleagues reviewed the new bunyavirus, SFTSV, identified in China. As the virus discoverers, they have overviewed the whole process of the discovery, which is helpful and meaningful for the new virus discoveries in the future.", "As the virus discoverers, they have overviewed the whole process of the discovery, which is helpful and meaningful for the new virus discoveries in the future. The disease caused by SFTSV, with a CFR of 12%, had been in China for a couple of years before the causative agent was finally identified. There are still a lot of questions remained unknown for this new virus and vigorous studies are in great need.", "There are still a lot of questions remained unknown for this new virus and vigorous studies are in great need. The transmission route of the virus has not been clarified but tick as vector is suspected. Domestic and wild animals, e.g., goats, boars, cattle and dogs, are believed to be the virus-amplifying hosts.", "Domestic and wild animals, e.g., goats, boars, cattle and dogs, are believed to be the virus-amplifying hosts. Therefore the effective control measures are still under evaluation. Vaccines protecting the SFTSV infection are under its way in Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.", "Vaccines protecting the SFTSV infection are under its way in Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Recently a similar virus has been identified in both Japan and USA a new name of Heartland virus was proposed for the US virus . In addition to new viruses infecting human beings, some new viruses infecting animals but their public health significance needing to be further evaluated, have also been discovered.", "In addition to new viruses infecting human beings, some new viruses infecting animals but their public health significance needing to be further evaluated, have also been discovered. The new flavivirus, duck egg-drop syndrome virus DEDSV , is a good example. Su and colleagues reviewed the characterization of the DEDSV and its disease form in this issue.", "Su and colleagues reviewed the characterization of the DEDSV and its disease form in this issue. The virus was found closely-related to a long-time-known virus, Tembusu virus . Initially, the disease was only found in egg-raising ducks but soon it was found in pigeons, chickens and geese .", "Initially, the disease was only found in egg-raising ducks but soon it was found in pigeons, chickens and geese . Yet the transmission vector, though mosquitoes are suspected, has not been identified. Due to the public health concerns of its related viruses, potential human infection of DEDSV should be evaluated.", "Due to the public health concerns of its related viruses, potential human infection of DEDSV should be evaluated. Research on insect viruses is reviving in recent years. In this issue, Zhou and colleagues reviewed the newly-identified insect viruses in China. Insects are the largest group of animals on the Earth therefore they also carry many more viruses.", "Insects are the largest group of animals on the Earth therefore they also carry many more viruses. Studies on these viruses can provide useful knowledge for our understanding about animal or human infecting viruses. More importantly, modification and application of insect-infecting viruses can be used as effective biologicals for the control of insect pest.", "More importantly, modification and application of insect-infecting viruses can be used as effective biologicals for the control of insect pest. The new viruses identified include Wuhan nodavirus WhNV , a member of family Nodaviridae; Dendrolimus punctatus tetravirus DpTV , a new member of the genus Omegatetravirus of the family Alphatetravirida; Ectropis obliqua picorna-like virus EoV , a positive-strand RNA virus causing a lethal granulosis infection in the larvae of the tea looper Ectropis obliqua , the virus a member of the Flaviridae family. While we are enjoying ourselves with the civilization of modern societies, the ecology has ever been changing.", "While we are enjoying ourselves with the civilization of modern societies, the ecology has ever been changing. Human beings encounter more ecology-climate-changing problems, including the zoonotic pathogens. We have to face some unknown pathogenic agents passively. To get ourselves well prepared we also ought to actively hunt for unknown pathogens.", "To get ourselves well prepared we also ought to actively hunt for unknown pathogens. Prediction and pre-warning can only be realized by knowing more about the unknown. This is especially true for infectious agents." ]

[ "nan Text: pecially with next-generation sequencing NGS for new virus genome discovery, e.g., Ruben Donis et al. sequenced a bat-derived influenza virus genome by using NGS in 2012, raising a serious question as to whether or not our seasonal or pandemic flu might have another reservoir host. Chen and colleagues confirmed the SFTSV independently by using NGS.", "Chen and colleagues confirmed the SFTSV independently by using NGS. Indeed, metagenomics analysis has yielded a great deal of new viruses, especially from the environment. Our actively hunting for new viruses has made some significant contributions for our understanding of virus ecology, pathogenesis and interspecies transmission.", "Our actively hunting for new viruses has made some significant contributions for our understanding of virus ecology, pathogenesis and interspecies transmission. Science China Life Sciences has focused on this hot topic in the event of the H7N9 outbreak after a comprehensive overview of the topic addressing HPAIV H5N1 in 2009 in the journal . In this issue, six groups have been invited to present their recent findings on the emerging viruses, in addition to a previous report on H7N9 .", "In this issue, six groups have been invited to present their recent findings on the emerging viruses, in addition to a previous report on H7N9 . Shi reviewed recent discoveries of new viruses or virus genomes from bat. Bat is believed to harbor many more viruses than we ever thought as a reservoir host or even a susceptible host .", "Bat is believed to harbor many more viruses than we ever thought as a reservoir host or even a susceptible host . After the SARS-CoV virus, we have been actively seeking for new coronaviruses from bat and have yielded many of them, including potential human infecting HKU-1, 4, 5 and 9 . Recent MERS-CoV infection is another example for severe disease caused by used-to-be-less pathogenic coronaviruses.", "Recent MERS-CoV infection is another example for severe disease caused by used-to-be-less pathogenic coronaviruses. Shi and colleagues by using NGS have discovered many unknown animal viruses from bat, especially some important paramyxoviruses and reoviruses. Filovirus has also been identified in bat with potential severe outcomes.", "Filovirus has also been identified in bat with potential severe outcomes. Lyssaviruses with many genotypes, including rabies virus in the Rhabdoviridae family have been linked with severe fatal human cases, even in the developed countries, including Australia, with the bites of bats in the city . The potential roles of these viruses in bats for interspecies transmission are yet to be elucidated.", "The potential roles of these viruses in bats for interspecies transmission are yet to be elucidated. Tan and colleagues specifically focused on the newly-emerged MERS-CoV. The virus was identified in 2012 in the Middle East with some exported cases to Europe. In 2013 the virus has been re-emerging and expanding its borders to more European countries.", "In 2013 the virus has been re-emerging and expanding its borders to more European countries. In the initial diagnosis, the pan-coronavirus real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction RT-PCR assay played a very important role for the identification of the causative agents. By using this method, scientists detected an expected-size PCR fragment for the corresponding conserved region of ORF1b of the replicase gene of a coronavirus.", "By using this method, scientists detected an expected-size PCR fragment for the corresponding conserved region of ORF1b of the replicase gene of a coronavirus. This is another example that molecular biology methods played for the discovery of new pathogens. Soon the receptor used by MERS-CoV to enter the host cells was identified and the molecular basis of the receptor binding to the virus was also elucidated recently .", "Soon the receptor used by MERS-CoV to enter the host cells was identified and the molecular basis of the receptor binding to the virus was also elucidated recently . Enterovirus has been known as serious human pathogens for a long time but their significance to the public health has been emphasized by the emergence of enterovirus 71 in 1998 as a serious pathogenic agents for children in Taiwan and re-emerged in mainland China in 2008 . In this issue, Duan and colleagues summarized the findings of new enteroviruses by using NGS.", "In this issue, Duan and colleagues summarized the findings of new enteroviruses by using NGS. Because of the application of new NGS technology they also challenged the Koch's postulates. A new model of Koch's postulates, named the metagenomic Koch's postulates, has provided guidance for the study of the pathogenicity of novel viruses.", "A new model of Koch's postulates, named the metagenomic Koch's postulates, has provided guidance for the study of the pathogenicity of novel viruses. The review also provided a detailed description of the NGS and related molecular methods for the virus discovery followed by a list of new enteroviruses found in human feces. These include viruses in the family of Piconaviridae, Parvoviridae, Circoviridae, Astroviridae and Polyomaviridae.", "These include viruses in the family of Piconaviridae, Parvoviridae, Circoviridae, Astroviridae and Polyomaviridae. Yu Xue-Jie and colleagues reviewed the new bunyavirus, SFTSV, identified in China. As the virus discoverers, they have overviewed the whole process of the discovery, which is helpful and meaningful for the new virus discoveries in the future.", "As the virus discoverers, they have overviewed the whole process of the discovery, which is helpful and meaningful for the new virus discoveries in the future. The disease caused by SFTSV, with a CFR of 12%, had been in China for a couple of years before the causative agent was finally identified. There are still a lot of questions remained unknown for this new virus and vigorous studies are in great need.", "There are still a lot of questions remained unknown for this new virus and vigorous studies are in great need. The transmission route of the virus has not been clarified but tick as vector is suspected. Domestic and wild animals, e.g., goats, boars, cattle and dogs, are believed to be the virus-amplifying hosts.", "Domestic and wild animals, e.g., goats, boars, cattle and dogs, are believed to be the virus-amplifying hosts. Therefore the effective control measures are still under evaluation. Vaccines protecting the SFTSV infection are under its way in Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.", "Vaccines protecting the SFTSV infection are under its way in Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Recently a similar virus has been identified in both Japan and USA a new name of Heartland virus was proposed for the US virus . In addition to new viruses infecting human beings, some new viruses infecting animals but their public health significance needing to be further evaluated, have also been discovered.", "In addition to new viruses infecting human beings, some new viruses infecting animals but their public health significance needing to be further evaluated, have also been discovered. The new flavivirus, duck egg-drop syndrome virus DEDSV , is a good example. Su and colleagues reviewed the characterization of the DEDSV and its disease form in this issue.", "Su and colleagues reviewed the characterization of the DEDSV and its disease form in this issue. The virus was found closely-related to a long-time-known virus, Tembusu virus . Initially, the disease was only found in egg-raising ducks but soon it was found in pigeons, chickens and geese .", "Initially, the disease was only found in egg-raising ducks but soon it was found in pigeons, chickens and geese . Yet the transmission vector, though mosquitoes are suspected, has not been identified. Due to the public health concerns of its related viruses, potential human infection of DEDSV should be evaluated.", "Due to the public health concerns of its related viruses, potential human infection of DEDSV should be evaluated. Research on insect viruses is reviving in recent years. In this issue, Zhou and colleagues reviewed the newly-identified insect viruses in China. Insects are the largest group of animals on the Earth therefore they also carry many more viruses.", "Insects are the largest group of animals on the Earth therefore they also carry many more viruses. Studies on these viruses can provide useful knowledge for our understanding about animal or human infecting viruses. More importantly, modification and application of insect-infecting viruses can be used as effective biologicals for the control of insect pest.", "More importantly, modification and application of insect-infecting viruses can be used as effective biologicals for the control of insect pest. The new viruses identified include Wuhan nodavirus WhNV , a member of family Nodaviridae; Dendrolimus punctatus tetravirus DpTV , a new member of the genus Omegatetravirus of the family Alphatetravirida; Ectropis obliqua picorna-like virus EoV , a positive-strand RNA virus causing a lethal granulosis infection in the larvae of the tea looper Ectropis obliqua , the virus a member of the Flaviridae family. While we are enjoying ourselves with the civilization of modern societies, the ecology has ever been changing.", "While we are enjoying ourselves with the civilization of modern societies, the ecology has ever been changing. Human beings encounter more ecology-climate-changing problems, including the zoonotic pathogens. We have to face some unknown pathogenic agents passively. To get ourselves well prepared we also ought to actively hunt for unknown pathogens.", "To get ourselves well prepared we also ought to actively hunt for unknown pathogens. Prediction and pre-warning can only be realized by knowing more about the unknown. This is especially true for infectious agents." ]

[ "Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts of China and a number of foreign countries. The 2019-nCoV cases might have been under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020, and thus we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV. Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth.", "Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth. The number of unreported cases was determined by the maximum likelihood estimation. We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0.", "We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0. Results: We confirmed that the initial growth phase followed an exponential growth pattern. The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18−25 in comparison to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 .", "We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 . Conclusion: The under-reporting was likely to have occurred during the first half of January 2020 and should be considered in future investigation. Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 .", "Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 . The virus causes a range of symptoms including fever, cough, and shortness of breath . The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020.", "The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020. As of 26 January 2020, the still ongoing outbreak had resulted in 2066 618 of them are in Wuhan confirmed cases and 56 45 of them were in Wuhan deaths in mainland China , and sporadic cases exported from Wuhan were reported in Thailand, Japan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia, and the United States, please see the World Health Organization WHO news release via from 14 to 21 January 2020. Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 .", "Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 . Leung et al. drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by .", "drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by . Due to an unknown reason, the cumulative number of cases remained at 41 from 1 to 15 January 2020 according to the official report, i.e., no new case was reported during these 15 days, which appears inconsistent with the following rapid growth of the epidemic curve since 16 January 2020. We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020. In this study, we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R 0 , of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan from 1 to 15 January 2020 based on the limited data in the early outbreak. The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 .", "The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 . The case time series data in December 2019 were obtained from a published study . All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China .", "All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China . We chose the data up to 24 January 2020 instead of to the present study completion date. Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent.", "Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent. We suspected that there was a number of cases, denoted by ξ, under-reported from 1 to 15 January 2020. The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i .", "The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i . We have C i = c i + Ξ i , where c i is observed from the data, and Ξ i is 0 for i before 1 January and ξ for i after 15 January 2020. Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process.", "Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process. Since the data from 1 to 15 January 2020 appeared constant due to unclear reason s , we removed these data from the fitting of exponential growth. The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors.", "The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors. The 95% confidence interval 95% CI of ξ was estimated by the profile likelihood estimation framework with cutoff threshold determined by a Chi-square quantile , χ 2 pr = 0.95, df = 1 . With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage.", "With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage. Here, the function M · was the Laplace transform, i.e., the moment generating function, of the probability distribution for the serial interval SI of the disease , denoted by h k and k is the mean SI. Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV .", "Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV . We modelled h k as Gamma distributions with mean of 8.0 days and standard deviation SD of 3.6 days by averaging the SI mean and SD of SARS, mean of 7.6 days and SD of 3.4 days , and MERS, mean of 8.4 days and SD of 3.8 days . We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i .", "We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i . A simulation framework was developed for the iterative Poisson process such that E denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R 0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases C i remarkably well, see Figure 1c iterative Poisson process such that denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases Ci remarkably well, see Figure 1c , referring to McFadden's pseudo-R-squared of 0.99. show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases Ci and the daily number of cases εi respectively. In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases. With the MLE of R 0 at 2.56, panels c,d show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases C i and the daily number of cases ε i respectively. In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R 0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak. We note that slightly varying the mean and SD of SI would not affect our main conclusions. The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 .", "The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 . For the simulated daily number of cases ε i , see Figure 1d , we found that ε i matched the observed daily number after 17 January 2020, but was significantly larger than the observations from 1 to 17 January 2020. This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020.", "This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020. We estimated that the reporting rate after 17 January 2020 increased 21-fold 95% CI: compared to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased.", "One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased. Thereafter, the daily number of newly reported cases started increasing rapidly after 17 January 2020, see Figure 1d . We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold.", "We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold. The exact value of the reporting rate was difficult to determine due to lack of serological surveillance data. The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence.", "The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence. The reporting rate is the ratio of reported cases over the number of seropositive individuals. It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak.", "It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak. Previous preprint suggested cumulative cases of 1723 95% CI: 427-4471 as of 12 January 2020, and 4000 95% CI: 1000-9700 as of 18 January 2020 based on the aggregated international export cases . Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak.", "Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak. Although our estimate case number appeared to have a lower mean than those estimated by Imai et al. , they are not statistically different.", ", they are not statistically different. This study applied a different screening effort to detect the 2019-nCoV cases from that in Imai et al. . Imai et al. assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan.", "assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan. Whereas we assumed a constant screening effort applied in Wuhan at the same point of time, and then a number of cases i.e., ξ should have been reported yet failed to be reported in the first half of January 2020 due to all sorts of reasons. It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms.", "It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms. Thus, it was reasonable that our estimates appeared lower than those estimated by Imai et al. .", ". It must be emphasized that such a gap in the knowledge would be resolved by serological survey study for a large population to approximate the actual positive rate or an explicit estimation of the actual reporting rate. Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18-25 compared with the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average, and it should be considered in future investigation. We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 .", "We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 . Author Contributions: All authors conceived the study, carried out the analysis, discussed the results, drafted the first manuscript. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript." ]

[ "Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts of China and a number of foreign countries. The 2019-nCoV cases might have been under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020, and thus we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV. Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth.", "Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth. The number of unreported cases was determined by the maximum likelihood estimation. We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0.", "We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0. Results: We confirmed that the initial growth phase followed an exponential growth pattern. The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18−25 in comparison to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 .", "We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 . Conclusion: The under-reporting was likely to have occurred during the first half of January 2020 and should be considered in future investigation. Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 .", "Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 . The virus causes a range of symptoms including fever, cough, and shortness of breath . The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020.", "The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020. As of 26 January 2020, the still ongoing outbreak had resulted in 2066 618 of them are in Wuhan confirmed cases and 56 45 of them were in Wuhan deaths in mainland China , and sporadic cases exported from Wuhan were reported in Thailand, Japan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia, and the United States, please see the World Health Organization WHO news release via from 14 to 21 January 2020. Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 .", "Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 . Leung et al. drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by .", "drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by . Due to an unknown reason, the cumulative number of cases remained at 41 from 1 to 15 January 2020 according to the official report, i.e., no new case was reported during these 15 days, which appears inconsistent with the following rapid growth of the epidemic curve since 16 January 2020. We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020. In this study, we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R 0 , of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan from 1 to 15 January 2020 based on the limited data in the early outbreak. The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 .", "The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 . The case time series data in December 2019 were obtained from a published study . All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China .", "All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China . We chose the data up to 24 January 2020 instead of to the present study completion date. Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent.", "Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent. We suspected that there was a number of cases, denoted by ξ, under-reported from 1 to 15 January 2020. The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i .", "The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i . We have C i = c i + Ξ i , where c i is observed from the data, and Ξ i is 0 for i before 1 January and ξ for i after 15 January 2020. Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process.", "Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process. Since the data from 1 to 15 January 2020 appeared constant due to unclear reason s , we removed these data from the fitting of exponential growth. The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors.", "The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors. The 95% confidence interval 95% CI of ξ was estimated by the profile likelihood estimation framework with cutoff threshold determined by a Chi-square quantile , χ 2 pr = 0.95, df = 1 . With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage.", "With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage. Here, the function M · was the Laplace transform, i.e., the moment generating function, of the probability distribution for the serial interval SI of the disease , denoted by h k and k is the mean SI. Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV .", "Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV . We modelled h k as Gamma distributions with mean of 8.0 days and standard deviation SD of 3.6 days by averaging the SI mean and SD of SARS, mean of 7.6 days and SD of 3.4 days , and MERS, mean of 8.4 days and SD of 3.8 days . We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i .", "We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i . A simulation framework was developed for the iterative Poisson process such that E denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R 0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases C i remarkably well, see Figure 1c iterative Poisson process such that denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases Ci remarkably well, see Figure 1c , referring to McFadden's pseudo-R-squared of 0.99. show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases Ci and the daily number of cases εi respectively. In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases. With the MLE of R 0 at 2.56, panels c,d show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases C i and the daily number of cases ε i respectively. In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R 0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak. We note that slightly varying the mean and SD of SI would not affect our main conclusions. The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 .", "The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 . For the simulated daily number of cases ε i , see Figure 1d , we found that ε i matched the observed daily number after 17 January 2020, but was significantly larger than the observations from 1 to 17 January 2020. This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020.", "This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020. We estimated that the reporting rate after 17 January 2020 increased 21-fold 95% CI: compared to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased.", "One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased. Thereafter, the daily number of newly reported cases started increasing rapidly after 17 January 2020, see Figure 1d . We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold.", "We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold. The exact value of the reporting rate was difficult to determine due to lack of serological surveillance data. The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence.", "The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence. The reporting rate is the ratio of reported cases over the number of seropositive individuals. It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak.", "It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak. Previous preprint suggested cumulative cases of 1723 95% CI: 427-4471 as of 12 January 2020, and 4000 95% CI: 1000-9700 as of 18 January 2020 based on the aggregated international export cases . Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak.", "Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak. Although our estimate case number appeared to have a lower mean than those estimated by Imai et al. , they are not statistically different.", ", they are not statistically different. This study applied a different screening effort to detect the 2019-nCoV cases from that in Imai et al. . Imai et al. assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan.", "assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan. Whereas we assumed a constant screening effort applied in Wuhan at the same point of time, and then a number of cases i.e., ξ should have been reported yet failed to be reported in the first half of January 2020 due to all sorts of reasons. It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms.", "It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms. Thus, it was reasonable that our estimates appeared lower than those estimated by Imai et al. .", ". It must be emphasized that such a gap in the knowledge would be resolved by serological survey study for a large population to approximate the actual positive rate or an explicit estimation of the actual reporting rate. Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18-25 compared with the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average, and it should be considered in future investigation. We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 .", "We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 . Author Contributions: All authors conceived the study, carried out the analysis, discussed the results, drafted the first manuscript. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript." ]

[ "Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts of China and a number of foreign countries. The 2019-nCoV cases might have been under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020, and thus we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV. Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth.", "Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth. The number of unreported cases was determined by the maximum likelihood estimation. We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0.", "We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0. Results: We confirmed that the initial growth phase followed an exponential growth pattern. The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18−25 in comparison to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 .", "We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 . Conclusion: The under-reporting was likely to have occurred during the first half of January 2020 and should be considered in future investigation. Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 .", "Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 . The virus causes a range of symptoms including fever, cough, and shortness of breath . The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020.", "The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020. As of 26 January 2020, the still ongoing outbreak had resulted in 2066 618 of them are in Wuhan confirmed cases and 56 45 of them were in Wuhan deaths in mainland China , and sporadic cases exported from Wuhan were reported in Thailand, Japan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia, and the United States, please see the World Health Organization WHO news release via from 14 to 21 January 2020. Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 .", "Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 . Leung et al. drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by .", "drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by . Due to an unknown reason, the cumulative number of cases remained at 41 from 1 to 15 January 2020 according to the official report, i.e., no new case was reported during these 15 days, which appears inconsistent with the following rapid growth of the epidemic curve since 16 January 2020. We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020. In this study, we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R 0 , of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan from 1 to 15 January 2020 based on the limited data in the early outbreak. The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 .", "The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 . The case time series data in December 2019 were obtained from a published study . All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China .", "All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China . We chose the data up to 24 January 2020 instead of to the present study completion date. Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent.", "Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent. We suspected that there was a number of cases, denoted by ξ, under-reported from 1 to 15 January 2020. The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i .", "The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i . We have C i = c i + Ξ i , where c i is observed from the data, and Ξ i is 0 for i before 1 January and ξ for i after 15 January 2020. Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process.", "Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process. Since the data from 1 to 15 January 2020 appeared constant due to unclear reason s , we removed these data from the fitting of exponential growth. The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors.", "The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors. The 95% confidence interval 95% CI of ξ was estimated by the profile likelihood estimation framework with cutoff threshold determined by a Chi-square quantile , χ 2 pr = 0.95, df = 1 . With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage.", "With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage. Here, the function M · was the Laplace transform, i.e., the moment generating function, of the probability distribution for the serial interval SI of the disease , denoted by h k and k is the mean SI. Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV .", "Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV . We modelled h k as Gamma distributions with mean of 8.0 days and standard deviation SD of 3.6 days by averaging the SI mean and SD of SARS, mean of 7.6 days and SD of 3.4 days , and MERS, mean of 8.4 days and SD of 3.8 days . We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i .", "We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i . A simulation framework was developed for the iterative Poisson process such that E denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R 0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases C i remarkably well, see Figure 1c iterative Poisson process such that denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases Ci remarkably well, see Figure 1c , referring to McFadden's pseudo-R-squared of 0.99. show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases Ci and the daily number of cases εi respectively. In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases. With the MLE of R 0 at 2.56, panels c,d show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases C i and the daily number of cases ε i respectively. In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R 0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak. We note that slightly varying the mean and SD of SI would not affect our main conclusions. The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 .", "The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 . For the simulated daily number of cases ε i , see Figure 1d , we found that ε i matched the observed daily number after 17 January 2020, but was significantly larger than the observations from 1 to 17 January 2020. This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020.", "This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020. We estimated that the reporting rate after 17 January 2020 increased 21-fold 95% CI: compared to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased.", "One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased. Thereafter, the daily number of newly reported cases started increasing rapidly after 17 January 2020, see Figure 1d . We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold.", "We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold. The exact value of the reporting rate was difficult to determine due to lack of serological surveillance data. The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence.", "The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence. The reporting rate is the ratio of reported cases over the number of seropositive individuals. It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak.", "It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak. Previous preprint suggested cumulative cases of 1723 95% CI: 427-4471 as of 12 January 2020, and 4000 95% CI: 1000-9700 as of 18 January 2020 based on the aggregated international export cases . Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak.", "Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak. Although our estimate case number appeared to have a lower mean than those estimated by Imai et al. , they are not statistically different.", ", they are not statistically different. This study applied a different screening effort to detect the 2019-nCoV cases from that in Imai et al. . Imai et al. assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan.", "assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan. Whereas we assumed a constant screening effort applied in Wuhan at the same point of time, and then a number of cases i.e., ξ should have been reported yet failed to be reported in the first half of January 2020 due to all sorts of reasons. It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms.", "It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms. Thus, it was reasonable that our estimates appeared lower than those estimated by Imai et al. .", ". It must be emphasized that such a gap in the knowledge would be resolved by serological survey study for a large population to approximate the actual positive rate or an explicit estimation of the actual reporting rate. Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18-25 compared with the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average, and it should be considered in future investigation. We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 .", "We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 . Author Contributions: All authors conceived the study, carried out the analysis, discussed the results, drafted the first manuscript. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript." ]

[ "Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts of China and a number of foreign countries. The 2019-nCoV cases might have been under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020, and thus we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV. Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth.", "Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth. The number of unreported cases was determined by the maximum likelihood estimation. We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0.", "We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0. Results: We confirmed that the initial growth phase followed an exponential growth pattern. The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18−25 in comparison to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 .", "We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 . Conclusion: The under-reporting was likely to have occurred during the first half of January 2020 and should be considered in future investigation. Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 .", "Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 . The virus causes a range of symptoms including fever, cough, and shortness of breath . The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020.", "The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020. As of 26 January 2020, the still ongoing outbreak had resulted in 2066 618 of them are in Wuhan confirmed cases and 56 45 of them were in Wuhan deaths in mainland China , and sporadic cases exported from Wuhan were reported in Thailand, Japan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia, and the United States, please see the World Health Organization WHO news release via from 14 to 21 January 2020. Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 .", "Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 . Leung et al. drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by .", "drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by . Due to an unknown reason, the cumulative number of cases remained at 41 from 1 to 15 January 2020 according to the official report, i.e., no new case was reported during these 15 days, which appears inconsistent with the following rapid growth of the epidemic curve since 16 January 2020. We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020. In this study, we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R 0 , of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan from 1 to 15 January 2020 based on the limited data in the early outbreak. The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 .", "The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 . The case time series data in December 2019 were obtained from a published study . All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China .", "All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China . We chose the data up to 24 January 2020 instead of to the present study completion date. Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent.", "Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent. We suspected that there was a number of cases, denoted by ξ, under-reported from 1 to 15 January 2020. The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i .", "The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i . We have C i = c i + Ξ i , where c i is observed from the data, and Ξ i is 0 for i before 1 January and ξ for i after 15 January 2020. Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process.", "Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process. Since the data from 1 to 15 January 2020 appeared constant due to unclear reason s , we removed these data from the fitting of exponential growth. The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors.", "The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors. The 95% confidence interval 95% CI of ξ was estimated by the profile likelihood estimation framework with cutoff threshold determined by a Chi-square quantile , χ 2 pr = 0.95, df = 1 . With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage.", "With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage. Here, the function M · was the Laplace transform, i.e., the moment generating function, of the probability distribution for the serial interval SI of the disease , denoted by h k and k is the mean SI. Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV .", "Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV . We modelled h k as Gamma distributions with mean of 8.0 days and standard deviation SD of 3.6 days by averaging the SI mean and SD of SARS, mean of 7.6 days and SD of 3.4 days , and MERS, mean of 8.4 days and SD of 3.8 days . We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i .", "We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i . A simulation framework was developed for the iterative Poisson process such that E denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R 0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases C i remarkably well, see Figure 1c iterative Poisson process such that denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases Ci remarkably well, see Figure 1c , referring to McFadden's pseudo-R-squared of 0.99. show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases Ci and the daily number of cases εi respectively. In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases. With the MLE of R 0 at 2.56, panels c,d show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases C i and the daily number of cases ε i respectively. In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R 0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak. We note that slightly varying the mean and SD of SI would not affect our main conclusions. The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 .", "The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 . For the simulated daily number of cases ε i , see Figure 1d , we found that ε i matched the observed daily number after 17 January 2020, but was significantly larger than the observations from 1 to 17 January 2020. This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020.", "This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020. We estimated that the reporting rate after 17 January 2020 increased 21-fold 95% CI: compared to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased.", "One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased. Thereafter, the daily number of newly reported cases started increasing rapidly after 17 January 2020, see Figure 1d . We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold.", "We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold. The exact value of the reporting rate was difficult to determine due to lack of serological surveillance data. The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence.", "The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence. The reporting rate is the ratio of reported cases over the number of seropositive individuals. It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak.", "It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak. Previous preprint suggested cumulative cases of 1723 95% CI: 427-4471 as of 12 January 2020, and 4000 95% CI: 1000-9700 as of 18 January 2020 based on the aggregated international export cases . Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak.", "Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak. Although our estimate case number appeared to have a lower mean than those estimated by Imai et al. , they are not statistically different.", ", they are not statistically different. This study applied a different screening effort to detect the 2019-nCoV cases from that in Imai et al. . Imai et al. assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan.", "assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan. Whereas we assumed a constant screening effort applied in Wuhan at the same point of time, and then a number of cases i.e., ξ should have been reported yet failed to be reported in the first half of January 2020 due to all sorts of reasons. It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms.", "It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms. Thus, it was reasonable that our estimates appeared lower than those estimated by Imai et al. .", ". It must be emphasized that such a gap in the knowledge would be resolved by serological survey study for a large population to approximate the actual positive rate or an explicit estimation of the actual reporting rate. Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18-25 compared with the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average, and it should be considered in future investigation. We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 .", "We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 . Author Contributions: All authors conceived the study, carried out the analysis, discussed the results, drafted the first manuscript. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript." ]

[ "Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts of China and a number of foreign countries. The 2019-nCoV cases might have been under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020, and thus we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV. Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth.", "Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth. The number of unreported cases was determined by the maximum likelihood estimation. We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0.", "We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0. Results: We confirmed that the initial growth phase followed an exponential growth pattern. The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18−25 in comparison to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 .", "We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 . Conclusion: The under-reporting was likely to have occurred during the first half of January 2020 and should be considered in future investigation. Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 .", "Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 . The virus causes a range of symptoms including fever, cough, and shortness of breath . The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020.", "The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020. As of 26 January 2020, the still ongoing outbreak had resulted in 2066 618 of them are in Wuhan confirmed cases and 56 45 of them were in Wuhan deaths in mainland China , and sporadic cases exported from Wuhan were reported in Thailand, Japan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia, and the United States, please see the World Health Organization WHO news release via from 14 to 21 January 2020. Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 .", "Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 . Leung et al. drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by .", "drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by . Due to an unknown reason, the cumulative number of cases remained at 41 from 1 to 15 January 2020 according to the official report, i.e., no new case was reported during these 15 days, which appears inconsistent with the following rapid growth of the epidemic curve since 16 January 2020. We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020. In this study, we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R 0 , of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan from 1 to 15 January 2020 based on the limited data in the early outbreak. The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 .", "The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 . The case time series data in December 2019 were obtained from a published study . All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China .", "All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China . We chose the data up to 24 January 2020 instead of to the present study completion date. Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent.", "Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent. We suspected that there was a number of cases, denoted by ξ, under-reported from 1 to 15 January 2020. The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i .", "The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i . We have C i = c i + Ξ i , where c i is observed from the data, and Ξ i is 0 for i before 1 January and ξ for i after 15 January 2020. Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process.", "Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process. Since the data from 1 to 15 January 2020 appeared constant due to unclear reason s , we removed these data from the fitting of exponential growth. The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors.", "The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors. The 95% confidence interval 95% CI of ξ was estimated by the profile likelihood estimation framework with cutoff threshold determined by a Chi-square quantile , χ 2 pr = 0.95, df = 1 . With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage.", "With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage. Here, the function M · was the Laplace transform, i.e., the moment generating function, of the probability distribution for the serial interval SI of the disease , denoted by h k and k is the mean SI. Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV .", "Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV . We modelled h k as Gamma distributions with mean of 8.0 days and standard deviation SD of 3.6 days by averaging the SI mean and SD of SARS, mean of 7.6 days and SD of 3.4 days , and MERS, mean of 8.4 days and SD of 3.8 days . We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i .", "We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i . A simulation framework was developed for the iterative Poisson process such that E denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R 0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases C i remarkably well, see Figure 1c iterative Poisson process such that denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases Ci remarkably well, see Figure 1c , referring to McFadden's pseudo-R-squared of 0.99. show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases Ci and the daily number of cases εi respectively. In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases. With the MLE of R 0 at 2.56, panels c,d show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases C i and the daily number of cases ε i respectively. In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R 0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak. We note that slightly varying the mean and SD of SI would not affect our main conclusions. The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 .", "The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 . For the simulated daily number of cases ε i , see Figure 1d , we found that ε i matched the observed daily number after 17 January 2020, but was significantly larger than the observations from 1 to 17 January 2020. This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020.", "This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020. We estimated that the reporting rate after 17 January 2020 increased 21-fold 95% CI: compared to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased.", "One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased. Thereafter, the daily number of newly reported cases started increasing rapidly after 17 January 2020, see Figure 1d . We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold.", "We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold. The exact value of the reporting rate was difficult to determine due to lack of serological surveillance data. The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence.", "The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence. The reporting rate is the ratio of reported cases over the number of seropositive individuals. It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak.", "It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak. Previous preprint suggested cumulative cases of 1723 95% CI: 427-4471 as of 12 January 2020, and 4000 95% CI: 1000-9700 as of 18 January 2020 based on the aggregated international export cases . Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak.", "Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak. Although our estimate case number appeared to have a lower mean than those estimated by Imai et al. , they are not statistically different.", ", they are not statistically different. This study applied a different screening effort to detect the 2019-nCoV cases from that in Imai et al. . Imai et al. assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan.", "assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan. Whereas we assumed a constant screening effort applied in Wuhan at the same point of time, and then a number of cases i.e., ξ should have been reported yet failed to be reported in the first half of January 2020 due to all sorts of reasons. It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms.", "It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms. Thus, it was reasonable that our estimates appeared lower than those estimated by Imai et al. .", ". It must be emphasized that such a gap in the knowledge would be resolved by serological survey study for a large population to approximate the actual positive rate or an explicit estimation of the actual reporting rate. Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18-25 compared with the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average, and it should be considered in future investigation. We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 .", "We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 . Author Contributions: All authors conceived the study, carried out the analysis, discussed the results, drafted the first manuscript. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript." ]

[ "Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts of China and a number of foreign countries. The 2019-nCoV cases might have been under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020, and thus we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV. Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth.", "Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth. The number of unreported cases was determined by the maximum likelihood estimation. We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0.", "We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0. Results: We confirmed that the initial growth phase followed an exponential growth pattern. The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18−25 in comparison to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 .", "We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 . Conclusion: The under-reporting was likely to have occurred during the first half of January 2020 and should be considered in future investigation. Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 .", "Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 . The virus causes a range of symptoms including fever, cough, and shortness of breath . The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020.", "The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020. As of 26 January 2020, the still ongoing outbreak had resulted in 2066 618 of them are in Wuhan confirmed cases and 56 45 of them were in Wuhan deaths in mainland China , and sporadic cases exported from Wuhan were reported in Thailand, Japan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia, and the United States, please see the World Health Organization WHO news release via from 14 to 21 January 2020. Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 .", "Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 . Leung et al. drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by .", "drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by . Due to an unknown reason, the cumulative number of cases remained at 41 from 1 to 15 January 2020 according to the official report, i.e., no new case was reported during these 15 days, which appears inconsistent with the following rapid growth of the epidemic curve since 16 January 2020. We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020. In this study, we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R 0 , of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan from 1 to 15 January 2020 based on the limited data in the early outbreak. The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 .", "The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 . The case time series data in December 2019 were obtained from a published study . All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China .", "All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China . We chose the data up to 24 January 2020 instead of to the present study completion date. Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent.", "Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent. We suspected that there was a number of cases, denoted by ξ, under-reported from 1 to 15 January 2020. The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i .", "The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i . We have C i = c i + Ξ i , where c i is observed from the data, and Ξ i is 0 for i before 1 January and ξ for i after 15 January 2020. Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process.", "Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process. Since the data from 1 to 15 January 2020 appeared constant due to unclear reason s , we removed these data from the fitting of exponential growth. The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors.", "The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors. The 95% confidence interval 95% CI of ξ was estimated by the profile likelihood estimation framework with cutoff threshold determined by a Chi-square quantile , χ 2 pr = 0.95, df = 1 . With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage.", "With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage. Here, the function M · was the Laplace transform, i.e., the moment generating function, of the probability distribution for the serial interval SI of the disease , denoted by h k and k is the mean SI. Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV .", "Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV . We modelled h k as Gamma distributions with mean of 8.0 days and standard deviation SD of 3.6 days by averaging the SI mean and SD of SARS, mean of 7.6 days and SD of 3.4 days , and MERS, mean of 8.4 days and SD of 3.8 days . We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i .", "We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i . A simulation framework was developed for the iterative Poisson process such that E denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R 0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases C i remarkably well, see Figure 1c iterative Poisson process such that denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases Ci remarkably well, see Figure 1c , referring to McFadden's pseudo-R-squared of 0.99. show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases Ci and the daily number of cases εi respectively. In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases. With the MLE of R 0 at 2.56, panels c,d show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases C i and the daily number of cases ε i respectively. In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R 0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak. We note that slightly varying the mean and SD of SI would not affect our main conclusions. The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 .", "The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 . For the simulated daily number of cases ε i , see Figure 1d , we found that ε i matched the observed daily number after 17 January 2020, but was significantly larger than the observations from 1 to 17 January 2020. This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020.", "This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020. We estimated that the reporting rate after 17 January 2020 increased 21-fold 95% CI: compared to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased.", "One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased. Thereafter, the daily number of newly reported cases started increasing rapidly after 17 January 2020, see Figure 1d . We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold.", "We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold. The exact value of the reporting rate was difficult to determine due to lack of serological surveillance data. The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence.", "The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence. The reporting rate is the ratio of reported cases over the number of seropositive individuals. It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak.", "It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak. Previous preprint suggested cumulative cases of 1723 95% CI: 427-4471 as of 12 January 2020, and 4000 95% CI: 1000-9700 as of 18 January 2020 based on the aggregated international export cases . Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak.", "Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak. Although our estimate case number appeared to have a lower mean than those estimated by Imai et al. , they are not statistically different.", ", they are not statistically different. This study applied a different screening effort to detect the 2019-nCoV cases from that in Imai et al. . Imai et al. assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan.", "assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan. Whereas we assumed a constant screening effort applied in Wuhan at the same point of time, and then a number of cases i.e., ξ should have been reported yet failed to be reported in the first half of January 2020 due to all sorts of reasons. It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms.", "It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms. Thus, it was reasonable that our estimates appeared lower than those estimated by Imai et al. .", ". It must be emphasized that such a gap in the knowledge would be resolved by serological survey study for a large population to approximate the actual positive rate or an explicit estimation of the actual reporting rate. Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18-25 compared with the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average, and it should be considered in future investigation. We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 .", "We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 . Author Contributions: All authors conceived the study, carried out the analysis, discussed the results, drafted the first manuscript. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript." ]

[ "Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts of China and a number of foreign countries. The 2019-nCoV cases might have been under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020, and thus we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV. Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth.", "Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth. The number of unreported cases was determined by the maximum likelihood estimation. We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0.", "We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0. Results: We confirmed that the initial growth phase followed an exponential growth pattern. The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18−25 in comparison to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 .", "We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 . Conclusion: The under-reporting was likely to have occurred during the first half of January 2020 and should be considered in future investigation. Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 .", "Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 . The virus causes a range of symptoms including fever, cough, and shortness of breath . The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020.", "The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020. As of 26 January 2020, the still ongoing outbreak had resulted in 2066 618 of them are in Wuhan confirmed cases and 56 45 of them were in Wuhan deaths in mainland China , and sporadic cases exported from Wuhan were reported in Thailand, Japan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia, and the United States, please see the World Health Organization WHO news release via from 14 to 21 January 2020. Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 .", "Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 . Leung et al. drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by .", "drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by . Due to an unknown reason, the cumulative number of cases remained at 41 from 1 to 15 January 2020 according to the official report, i.e., no new case was reported during these 15 days, which appears inconsistent with the following rapid growth of the epidemic curve since 16 January 2020. We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020. In this study, we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R 0 , of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan from 1 to 15 January 2020 based on the limited data in the early outbreak. The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 .", "The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 . The case time series data in December 2019 were obtained from a published study . All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China .", "All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China . We chose the data up to 24 January 2020 instead of to the present study completion date. Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent.", "Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent. We suspected that there was a number of cases, denoted by ξ, under-reported from 1 to 15 January 2020. The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i .", "The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i . We have C i = c i + Ξ i , where c i is observed from the data, and Ξ i is 0 for i before 1 January and ξ for i after 15 January 2020. Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process.", "Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process. Since the data from 1 to 15 January 2020 appeared constant due to unclear reason s , we removed these data from the fitting of exponential growth. The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors.", "The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors. The 95% confidence interval 95% CI of ξ was estimated by the profile likelihood estimation framework with cutoff threshold determined by a Chi-square quantile , χ 2 pr = 0.95, df = 1 . With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage.", "With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage. Here, the function M · was the Laplace transform, i.e., the moment generating function, of the probability distribution for the serial interval SI of the disease , denoted by h k and k is the mean SI. Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV .", "Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV . We modelled h k as Gamma distributions with mean of 8.0 days and standard deviation SD of 3.6 days by averaging the SI mean and SD of SARS, mean of 7.6 days and SD of 3.4 days , and MERS, mean of 8.4 days and SD of 3.8 days . We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i .", "We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i . A simulation framework was developed for the iterative Poisson process such that E denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R 0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases C i remarkably well, see Figure 1c iterative Poisson process such that denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases Ci remarkably well, see Figure 1c , referring to McFadden's pseudo-R-squared of 0.99. show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases Ci and the daily number of cases εi respectively. In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases. With the MLE of R 0 at 2.56, panels c,d show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases C i and the daily number of cases ε i respectively. In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R 0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak. We note that slightly varying the mean and SD of SI would not affect our main conclusions. The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 .", "The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 . For the simulated daily number of cases ε i , see Figure 1d , we found that ε i matched the observed daily number after 17 January 2020, but was significantly larger than the observations from 1 to 17 January 2020. This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020.", "This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020. We estimated that the reporting rate after 17 January 2020 increased 21-fold 95% CI: compared to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased.", "One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased. Thereafter, the daily number of newly reported cases started increasing rapidly after 17 January 2020, see Figure 1d . We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold.", "We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold. The exact value of the reporting rate was difficult to determine due to lack of serological surveillance data. The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence.", "The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence. The reporting rate is the ratio of reported cases over the number of seropositive individuals. It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak.", "It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak. Previous preprint suggested cumulative cases of 1723 95% CI: 427-4471 as of 12 January 2020, and 4000 95% CI: 1000-9700 as of 18 January 2020 based on the aggregated international export cases . Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak.", "Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak. Although our estimate case number appeared to have a lower mean than those estimated by Imai et al. , they are not statistically different.", ", they are not statistically different. This study applied a different screening effort to detect the 2019-nCoV cases from that in Imai et al. . Imai et al. assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan.", "assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan. Whereas we assumed a constant screening effort applied in Wuhan at the same point of time, and then a number of cases i.e., ξ should have been reported yet failed to be reported in the first half of January 2020 due to all sorts of reasons. It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms.", "It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms. Thus, it was reasonable that our estimates appeared lower than those estimated by Imai et al. .", ". It must be emphasized that such a gap in the knowledge would be resolved by serological survey study for a large population to approximate the actual positive rate or an explicit estimation of the actual reporting rate. Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18-25 compared with the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average, and it should be considered in future investigation. We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 .", "We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 . Author Contributions: All authors conceived the study, carried out the analysis, discussed the results, drafted the first manuscript. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript." ]

[ "Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts of China and a number of foreign countries. The 2019-nCoV cases might have been under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020, and thus we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV. Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth.", "Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth. The number of unreported cases was determined by the maximum likelihood estimation. We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0.", "We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0. Results: We confirmed that the initial growth phase followed an exponential growth pattern. The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18−25 in comparison to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 .", "We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 . Conclusion: The under-reporting was likely to have occurred during the first half of January 2020 and should be considered in future investigation. Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 .", "Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 . The virus causes a range of symptoms including fever, cough, and shortness of breath . The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020.", "The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020. As of 26 January 2020, the still ongoing outbreak had resulted in 2066 618 of them are in Wuhan confirmed cases and 56 45 of them were in Wuhan deaths in mainland China , and sporadic cases exported from Wuhan were reported in Thailand, Japan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia, and the United States, please see the World Health Organization WHO news release via from 14 to 21 January 2020. Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 .", "Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 . Leung et al. drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by .", "drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by . Due to an unknown reason, the cumulative number of cases remained at 41 from 1 to 15 January 2020 according to the official report, i.e., no new case was reported during these 15 days, which appears inconsistent with the following rapid growth of the epidemic curve since 16 January 2020. We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020. In this study, we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R 0 , of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan from 1 to 15 January 2020 based on the limited data in the early outbreak. The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 .", "The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 . The case time series data in December 2019 were obtained from a published study . All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China .", "All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China . We chose the data up to 24 January 2020 instead of to the present study completion date. Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent.", "Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent. We suspected that there was a number of cases, denoted by ξ, under-reported from 1 to 15 January 2020. The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i .", "The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i . We have C i = c i + Ξ i , where c i is observed from the data, and Ξ i is 0 for i before 1 January and ξ for i after 15 January 2020. Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process.", "Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process. Since the data from 1 to 15 January 2020 appeared constant due to unclear reason s , we removed these data from the fitting of exponential growth. The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors.", "The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors. The 95% confidence interval 95% CI of ξ was estimated by the profile likelihood estimation framework with cutoff threshold determined by a Chi-square quantile , χ 2 pr = 0.95, df = 1 . With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage.", "With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage. Here, the function M · was the Laplace transform, i.e., the moment generating function, of the probability distribution for the serial interval SI of the disease , denoted by h k and k is the mean SI. Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV .", "Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV . We modelled h k as Gamma distributions with mean of 8.0 days and standard deviation SD of 3.6 days by averaging the SI mean and SD of SARS, mean of 7.6 days and SD of 3.4 days , and MERS, mean of 8.4 days and SD of 3.8 days . We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i .", "We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i . A simulation framework was developed for the iterative Poisson process such that E denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R 0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases C i remarkably well, see Figure 1c iterative Poisson process such that denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases Ci remarkably well, see Figure 1c , referring to McFadden's pseudo-R-squared of 0.99. show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases Ci and the daily number of cases εi respectively. In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases. With the MLE of R 0 at 2.56, panels c,d show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases C i and the daily number of cases ε i respectively. In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R 0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak. We note that slightly varying the mean and SD of SI would not affect our main conclusions. The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 .", "The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 . For the simulated daily number of cases ε i , see Figure 1d , we found that ε i matched the observed daily number after 17 January 2020, but was significantly larger than the observations from 1 to 17 January 2020. This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020.", "This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020. We estimated that the reporting rate after 17 January 2020 increased 21-fold 95% CI: compared to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased.", "One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased. Thereafter, the daily number of newly reported cases started increasing rapidly after 17 January 2020, see Figure 1d . We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold.", "We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold. The exact value of the reporting rate was difficult to determine due to lack of serological surveillance data. The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence.", "The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence. The reporting rate is the ratio of reported cases over the number of seropositive individuals. It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak.", "It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak. Previous preprint suggested cumulative cases of 1723 95% CI: 427-4471 as of 12 January 2020, and 4000 95% CI: 1000-9700 as of 18 January 2020 based on the aggregated international export cases . Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak.", "Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak. Although our estimate case number appeared to have a lower mean than those estimated by Imai et al. , they are not statistically different.", ", they are not statistically different. This study applied a different screening effort to detect the 2019-nCoV cases from that in Imai et al. . Imai et al. assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan.", "assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan. Whereas we assumed a constant screening effort applied in Wuhan at the same point of time, and then a number of cases i.e., ξ should have been reported yet failed to be reported in the first half of January 2020 due to all sorts of reasons. It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms.", "It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms. Thus, it was reasonable that our estimates appeared lower than those estimated by Imai et al. .", ". It must be emphasized that such a gap in the knowledge would be resolved by serological survey study for a large population to approximate the actual positive rate or an explicit estimation of the actual reporting rate. Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18-25 compared with the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average, and it should be considered in future investigation. We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 .", "We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 . Author Contributions: All authors conceived the study, carried out the analysis, discussed the results, drafted the first manuscript. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript." ]

[ "Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts of China and a number of foreign countries. The 2019-nCoV cases might have been under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020, and thus we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV. Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth.", "Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth. The number of unreported cases was determined by the maximum likelihood estimation. We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0.", "We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0. Results: We confirmed that the initial growth phase followed an exponential growth pattern. The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18−25 in comparison to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 .", "We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 . Conclusion: The under-reporting was likely to have occurred during the first half of January 2020 and should be considered in future investigation. Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 .", "Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 . The virus causes a range of symptoms including fever, cough, and shortness of breath . The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020.", "The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020. As of 26 January 2020, the still ongoing outbreak had resulted in 2066 618 of them are in Wuhan confirmed cases and 56 45 of them were in Wuhan deaths in mainland China , and sporadic cases exported from Wuhan were reported in Thailand, Japan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia, and the United States, please see the World Health Organization WHO news release via from 14 to 21 January 2020. Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 .", "Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 . Leung et al. drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by .", "drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by . Due to an unknown reason, the cumulative number of cases remained at 41 from 1 to 15 January 2020 according to the official report, i.e., no new case was reported during these 15 days, which appears inconsistent with the following rapid growth of the epidemic curve since 16 January 2020. We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020. In this study, we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R 0 , of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan from 1 to 15 January 2020 based on the limited data in the early outbreak. The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 .", "The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 . The case time series data in December 2019 were obtained from a published study . All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China .", "All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China . We chose the data up to 24 January 2020 instead of to the present study completion date. Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent.", "Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent. We suspected that there was a number of cases, denoted by ξ, under-reported from 1 to 15 January 2020. The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i .", "The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i . We have C i = c i + Ξ i , where c i is observed from the data, and Ξ i is 0 for i before 1 January and ξ for i after 15 January 2020. Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process.", "Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process. Since the data from 1 to 15 January 2020 appeared constant due to unclear reason s , we removed these data from the fitting of exponential growth. The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors.", "The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors. The 95% confidence interval 95% CI of ξ was estimated by the profile likelihood estimation framework with cutoff threshold determined by a Chi-square quantile , χ 2 pr = 0.95, df = 1 . With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage.", "With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage. Here, the function M · was the Laplace transform, i.e., the moment generating function, of the probability distribution for the serial interval SI of the disease , denoted by h k and k is the mean SI. Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV .", "Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV . We modelled h k as Gamma distributions with mean of 8.0 days and standard deviation SD of 3.6 days by averaging the SI mean and SD of SARS, mean of 7.6 days and SD of 3.4 days , and MERS, mean of 8.4 days and SD of 3.8 days . We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i .", "We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i . A simulation framework was developed for the iterative Poisson process such that E denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R 0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases C i remarkably well, see Figure 1c iterative Poisson process such that denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases Ci remarkably well, see Figure 1c , referring to McFadden's pseudo-R-squared of 0.99. show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases Ci and the daily number of cases εi respectively. In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases. With the MLE of R 0 at 2.56, panels c,d show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases C i and the daily number of cases ε i respectively. In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R 0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak. We note that slightly varying the mean and SD of SI would not affect our main conclusions. The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 .", "The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 . For the simulated daily number of cases ε i , see Figure 1d , we found that ε i matched the observed daily number after 17 January 2020, but was significantly larger than the observations from 1 to 17 January 2020. This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020.", "This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020. We estimated that the reporting rate after 17 January 2020 increased 21-fold 95% CI: compared to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased.", "One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased. Thereafter, the daily number of newly reported cases started increasing rapidly after 17 January 2020, see Figure 1d . We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold.", "We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold. The exact value of the reporting rate was difficult to determine due to lack of serological surveillance data. The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence.", "The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence. The reporting rate is the ratio of reported cases over the number of seropositive individuals. It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak.", "It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak. Previous preprint suggested cumulative cases of 1723 95% CI: 427-4471 as of 12 January 2020, and 4000 95% CI: 1000-9700 as of 18 January 2020 based on the aggregated international export cases . Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak.", "Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak. Although our estimate case number appeared to have a lower mean than those estimated by Imai et al. , they are not statistically different.", ", they are not statistically different. This study applied a different screening effort to detect the 2019-nCoV cases from that in Imai et al. . Imai et al. assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan.", "assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan. Whereas we assumed a constant screening effort applied in Wuhan at the same point of time, and then a number of cases i.e., ξ should have been reported yet failed to be reported in the first half of January 2020 due to all sorts of reasons. It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms.", "It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms. Thus, it was reasonable that our estimates appeared lower than those estimated by Imai et al. .", ". It must be emphasized that such a gap in the knowledge would be resolved by serological survey study for a large population to approximate the actual positive rate or an explicit estimation of the actual reporting rate. Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18-25 compared with the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average, and it should be considered in future investigation. We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 .", "We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 . Author Contributions: All authors conceived the study, carried out the analysis, discussed the results, drafted the first manuscript. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript." ]

[ "Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts of China and a number of foreign countries. The 2019-nCoV cases might have been under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020, and thus we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV. Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth.", "Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth. The number of unreported cases was determined by the maximum likelihood estimation. We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0.", "We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0. Results: We confirmed that the initial growth phase followed an exponential growth pattern. The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18−25 in comparison to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 .", "We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 . Conclusion: The under-reporting was likely to have occurred during the first half of January 2020 and should be considered in future investigation. Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 .", "Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 . The virus causes a range of symptoms including fever, cough, and shortness of breath . The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020.", "The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020. As of 26 January 2020, the still ongoing outbreak had resulted in 2066 618 of them are in Wuhan confirmed cases and 56 45 of them were in Wuhan deaths in mainland China , and sporadic cases exported from Wuhan were reported in Thailand, Japan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia, and the United States, please see the World Health Organization WHO news release via from 14 to 21 January 2020. Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 .", "Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 . Leung et al. drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by .", "drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by . Due to an unknown reason, the cumulative number of cases remained at 41 from 1 to 15 January 2020 according to the official report, i.e., no new case was reported during these 15 days, which appears inconsistent with the following rapid growth of the epidemic curve since 16 January 2020. We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020. In this study, we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R 0 , of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan from 1 to 15 January 2020 based on the limited data in the early outbreak. The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 .", "The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 . The case time series data in December 2019 were obtained from a published study . All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China .", "All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China . We chose the data up to 24 January 2020 instead of to the present study completion date. Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent.", "Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent. We suspected that there was a number of cases, denoted by ξ, under-reported from 1 to 15 January 2020. The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i .", "The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i . We have C i = c i + Ξ i , where c i is observed from the data, and Ξ i is 0 for i before 1 January and ξ for i after 15 January 2020. Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process.", "Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process. Since the data from 1 to 15 January 2020 appeared constant due to unclear reason s , we removed these data from the fitting of exponential growth. The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors.", "The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors. The 95% confidence interval 95% CI of ξ was estimated by the profile likelihood estimation framework with cutoff threshold determined by a Chi-square quantile , χ 2 pr = 0.95, df = 1 . With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage.", "With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage. Here, the function M · was the Laplace transform, i.e., the moment generating function, of the probability distribution for the serial interval SI of the disease , denoted by h k and k is the mean SI. Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV .", "Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV . We modelled h k as Gamma distributions with mean of 8.0 days and standard deviation SD of 3.6 days by averaging the SI mean and SD of SARS, mean of 7.6 days and SD of 3.4 days , and MERS, mean of 8.4 days and SD of 3.8 days . We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i .", "We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i . A simulation framework was developed for the iterative Poisson process such that E denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R 0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases C i remarkably well, see Figure 1c iterative Poisson process such that denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases Ci remarkably well, see Figure 1c , referring to McFadden's pseudo-R-squared of 0.99. show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases Ci and the daily number of cases εi respectively. In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases. With the MLE of R 0 at 2.56, panels c,d show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases C i and the daily number of cases ε i respectively. In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R 0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak. We note that slightly varying the mean and SD of SI would not affect our main conclusions. The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 .", "The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 . For the simulated daily number of cases ε i , see Figure 1d , we found that ε i matched the observed daily number after 17 January 2020, but was significantly larger than the observations from 1 to 17 January 2020. This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020.", "This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020. We estimated that the reporting rate after 17 January 2020 increased 21-fold 95% CI: compared to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased.", "One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased. Thereafter, the daily number of newly reported cases started increasing rapidly after 17 January 2020, see Figure 1d . We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold.", "We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold. The exact value of the reporting rate was difficult to determine due to lack of serological surveillance data. The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence.", "The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence. The reporting rate is the ratio of reported cases over the number of seropositive individuals. It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak.", "It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak. Previous preprint suggested cumulative cases of 1723 95% CI: 427-4471 as of 12 January 2020, and 4000 95% CI: 1000-9700 as of 18 January 2020 based on the aggregated international export cases . Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak.", "Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak. Although our estimate case number appeared to have a lower mean than those estimated by Imai et al. , they are not statistically different.", ", they are not statistically different. This study applied a different screening effort to detect the 2019-nCoV cases from that in Imai et al. . Imai et al. assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan.", "assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan. Whereas we assumed a constant screening effort applied in Wuhan at the same point of time, and then a number of cases i.e., ξ should have been reported yet failed to be reported in the first half of January 2020 due to all sorts of reasons. It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms.", "It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms. Thus, it was reasonable that our estimates appeared lower than those estimated by Imai et al. .", ". It must be emphasized that such a gap in the knowledge would be resolved by serological survey study for a large population to approximate the actual positive rate or an explicit estimation of the actual reporting rate. Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18-25 compared with the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average, and it should be considered in future investigation. We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 .", "We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 . Author Contributions: All authors conceived the study, carried out the analysis, discussed the results, drafted the first manuscript. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript." ]

[ "Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts of China and a number of foreign countries. The 2019-nCoV cases might have been under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020, and thus we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV. Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth.", "Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth. The number of unreported cases was determined by the maximum likelihood estimation. We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0.", "We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0. Results: We confirmed that the initial growth phase followed an exponential growth pattern. The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18−25 in comparison to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 .", "We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 . Conclusion: The under-reporting was likely to have occurred during the first half of January 2020 and should be considered in future investigation. Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 .", "Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 . The virus causes a range of symptoms including fever, cough, and shortness of breath . The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020.", "The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020. As of 26 January 2020, the still ongoing outbreak had resulted in 2066 618 of them are in Wuhan confirmed cases and 56 45 of them were in Wuhan deaths in mainland China , and sporadic cases exported from Wuhan were reported in Thailand, Japan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia, and the United States, please see the World Health Organization WHO news release via from 14 to 21 January 2020. Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 .", "Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 . Leung et al. drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by .", "drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by . Due to an unknown reason, the cumulative number of cases remained at 41 from 1 to 15 January 2020 according to the official report, i.e., no new case was reported during these 15 days, which appears inconsistent with the following rapid growth of the epidemic curve since 16 January 2020. We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020. In this study, we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R 0 , of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan from 1 to 15 January 2020 based on the limited data in the early outbreak. The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 .", "The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 . The case time series data in December 2019 were obtained from a published study . All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China .", "All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China . We chose the data up to 24 January 2020 instead of to the present study completion date. Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent.", "Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent. We suspected that there was a number of cases, denoted by ξ, under-reported from 1 to 15 January 2020. The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i .", "The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i . We have C i = c i + Ξ i , where c i is observed from the data, and Ξ i is 0 for i before 1 January and ξ for i after 15 January 2020. Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process.", "Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process. Since the data from 1 to 15 January 2020 appeared constant due to unclear reason s , we removed these data from the fitting of exponential growth. The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors.", "The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors. The 95% confidence interval 95% CI of ξ was estimated by the profile likelihood estimation framework with cutoff threshold determined by a Chi-square quantile , χ 2 pr = 0.95, df = 1 . With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage.", "With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage. Here, the function M · was the Laplace transform, i.e., the moment generating function, of the probability distribution for the serial interval SI of the disease , denoted by h k and k is the mean SI. Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV .", "Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV . We modelled h k as Gamma distributions with mean of 8.0 days and standard deviation SD of 3.6 days by averaging the SI mean and SD of SARS, mean of 7.6 days and SD of 3.4 days , and MERS, mean of 8.4 days and SD of 3.8 days . We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i .", "We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i . A simulation framework was developed for the iterative Poisson process such that E denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R 0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases C i remarkably well, see Figure 1c iterative Poisson process such that denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases Ci remarkably well, see Figure 1c , referring to McFadden's pseudo-R-squared of 0.99. show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases Ci and the daily number of cases εi respectively. In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases. With the MLE of R 0 at 2.56, panels c,d show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases C i and the daily number of cases ε i respectively. In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R 0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak. We note that slightly varying the mean and SD of SI would not affect our main conclusions. The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 .", "The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 . For the simulated daily number of cases ε i , see Figure 1d , we found that ε i matched the observed daily number after 17 January 2020, but was significantly larger than the observations from 1 to 17 January 2020. This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020.", "This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020. We estimated that the reporting rate after 17 January 2020 increased 21-fold 95% CI: compared to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased.", "One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased. Thereafter, the daily number of newly reported cases started increasing rapidly after 17 January 2020, see Figure 1d . We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold.", "We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold. The exact value of the reporting rate was difficult to determine due to lack of serological surveillance data. The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence.", "The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence. The reporting rate is the ratio of reported cases over the number of seropositive individuals. It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak.", "It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak. Previous preprint suggested cumulative cases of 1723 95% CI: 427-4471 as of 12 January 2020, and 4000 95% CI: 1000-9700 as of 18 January 2020 based on the aggregated international export cases . Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak.", "Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak. Although our estimate case number appeared to have a lower mean than those estimated by Imai et al. , they are not statistically different.", ", they are not statistically different. This study applied a different screening effort to detect the 2019-nCoV cases from that in Imai et al. . Imai et al. assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan.", "assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan. Whereas we assumed a constant screening effort applied in Wuhan at the same point of time, and then a number of cases i.e., ξ should have been reported yet failed to be reported in the first half of January 2020 due to all sorts of reasons. It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms.", "It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms. Thus, it was reasonable that our estimates appeared lower than those estimated by Imai et al. .", ". It must be emphasized that such a gap in the knowledge would be resolved by serological survey study for a large population to approximate the actual positive rate or an explicit estimation of the actual reporting rate. Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18-25 compared with the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average, and it should be considered in future investigation. We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 .", "We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 . Author Contributions: All authors conceived the study, carried out the analysis, discussed the results, drafted the first manuscript. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript." ]

[ "Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts of China and a number of foreign countries. The 2019-nCoV cases might have been under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020, and thus we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV. Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth.", "Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth. The number of unreported cases was determined by the maximum likelihood estimation. We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0.", "We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0. Results: We confirmed that the initial growth phase followed an exponential growth pattern. The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18−25 in comparison to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 .", "We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 . Conclusion: The under-reporting was likely to have occurred during the first half of January 2020 and should be considered in future investigation. Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 .", "Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 . The virus causes a range of symptoms including fever, cough, and shortness of breath . The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020.", "The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020. As of 26 January 2020, the still ongoing outbreak had resulted in 2066 618 of them are in Wuhan confirmed cases and 56 45 of them were in Wuhan deaths in mainland China , and sporadic cases exported from Wuhan were reported in Thailand, Japan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia, and the United States, please see the World Health Organization WHO news release via from 14 to 21 January 2020. Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 .", "Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 . Leung et al. drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by .", "drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by . Due to an unknown reason, the cumulative number of cases remained at 41 from 1 to 15 January 2020 according to the official report, i.e., no new case was reported during these 15 days, which appears inconsistent with the following rapid growth of the epidemic curve since 16 January 2020. We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020. In this study, we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R 0 , of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan from 1 to 15 January 2020 based on the limited data in the early outbreak. The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 .", "The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 . The case time series data in December 2019 were obtained from a published study . All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China .", "All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China . We chose the data up to 24 January 2020 instead of to the present study completion date. Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent.", "Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent. We suspected that there was a number of cases, denoted by ξ, under-reported from 1 to 15 January 2020. The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i .", "The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i . We have C i = c i + Ξ i , where c i is observed from the data, and Ξ i is 0 for i before 1 January and ξ for i after 15 January 2020. Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process.", "Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process. Since the data from 1 to 15 January 2020 appeared constant due to unclear reason s , we removed these data from the fitting of exponential growth. The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors.", "The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors. The 95% confidence interval 95% CI of ξ was estimated by the profile likelihood estimation framework with cutoff threshold determined by a Chi-square quantile , χ 2 pr = 0.95, df = 1 . With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage.", "With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage. Here, the function M · was the Laplace transform, i.e., the moment generating function, of the probability distribution for the serial interval SI of the disease , denoted by h k and k is the mean SI. Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV .", "Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV . We modelled h k as Gamma distributions with mean of 8.0 days and standard deviation SD of 3.6 days by averaging the SI mean and SD of SARS, mean of 7.6 days and SD of 3.4 days , and MERS, mean of 8.4 days and SD of 3.8 days . We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i .", "We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i . A simulation framework was developed for the iterative Poisson process such that E denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R 0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases C i remarkably well, see Figure 1c iterative Poisson process such that denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases Ci remarkably well, see Figure 1c , referring to McFadden's pseudo-R-squared of 0.99. show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases Ci and the daily number of cases εi respectively. In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases. With the MLE of R 0 at 2.56, panels c,d show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases C i and the daily number of cases ε i respectively. In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R 0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak. We note that slightly varying the mean and SD of SI would not affect our main conclusions. The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 .", "The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 . For the simulated daily number of cases ε i , see Figure 1d , we found that ε i matched the observed daily number after 17 January 2020, but was significantly larger than the observations from 1 to 17 January 2020. This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020.", "This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020. We estimated that the reporting rate after 17 January 2020 increased 21-fold 95% CI: compared to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased.", "One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased. Thereafter, the daily number of newly reported cases started increasing rapidly after 17 January 2020, see Figure 1d . We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold.", "We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold. The exact value of the reporting rate was difficult to determine due to lack of serological surveillance data. The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence.", "The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence. The reporting rate is the ratio of reported cases over the number of seropositive individuals. It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak.", "It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak. Previous preprint suggested cumulative cases of 1723 95% CI: 427-4471 as of 12 January 2020, and 4000 95% CI: 1000-9700 as of 18 January 2020 based on the aggregated international export cases . Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak.", "Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak. Although our estimate case number appeared to have a lower mean than those estimated by Imai et al. , they are not statistically different.", ", they are not statistically different. This study applied a different screening effort to detect the 2019-nCoV cases from that in Imai et al. . Imai et al. assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan.", "assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan. Whereas we assumed a constant screening effort applied in Wuhan at the same point of time, and then a number of cases i.e., ξ should have been reported yet failed to be reported in the first half of January 2020 due to all sorts of reasons. It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms.", "It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms. Thus, it was reasonable that our estimates appeared lower than those estimated by Imai et al. .", ". It must be emphasized that such a gap in the knowledge would be resolved by serological survey study for a large population to approximate the actual positive rate or an explicit estimation of the actual reporting rate. Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18-25 compared with the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average, and it should be considered in future investigation. We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 .", "We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 . Author Contributions: All authors conceived the study, carried out the analysis, discussed the results, drafted the first manuscript. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript." ]

[ "Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts of China and a number of foreign countries. The 2019-nCoV cases might have been under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020, and thus we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV. Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth.", "Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth. The number of unreported cases was determined by the maximum likelihood estimation. We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0.", "We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0. Results: We confirmed that the initial growth phase followed an exponential growth pattern. The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18−25 in comparison to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 .", "We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 . Conclusion: The under-reporting was likely to have occurred during the first half of January 2020 and should be considered in future investigation. Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 .", "Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 . The virus causes a range of symptoms including fever, cough, and shortness of breath . The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020.", "The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020. As of 26 January 2020, the still ongoing outbreak had resulted in 2066 618 of them are in Wuhan confirmed cases and 56 45 of them were in Wuhan deaths in mainland China , and sporadic cases exported from Wuhan were reported in Thailand, Japan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia, and the United States, please see the World Health Organization WHO news release via from 14 to 21 January 2020. Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 .", "Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 . Leung et al. drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by .", "drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by . Due to an unknown reason, the cumulative number of cases remained at 41 from 1 to 15 January 2020 according to the official report, i.e., no new case was reported during these 15 days, which appears inconsistent with the following rapid growth of the epidemic curve since 16 January 2020. We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020. In this study, we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R 0 , of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan from 1 to 15 January 2020 based on the limited data in the early outbreak. The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 .", "The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 . The case time series data in December 2019 were obtained from a published study . All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China .", "All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China . We chose the data up to 24 January 2020 instead of to the present study completion date. Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent.", "Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent. We suspected that there was a number of cases, denoted by ξ, under-reported from 1 to 15 January 2020. The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i .", "The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i . We have C i = c i + Ξ i , where c i is observed from the data, and Ξ i is 0 for i before 1 January and ξ for i after 15 January 2020. Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process.", "Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process. Since the data from 1 to 15 January 2020 appeared constant due to unclear reason s , we removed these data from the fitting of exponential growth. The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors.", "The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors. The 95% confidence interval 95% CI of ξ was estimated by the profile likelihood estimation framework with cutoff threshold determined by a Chi-square quantile , χ 2 pr = 0.95, df = 1 . With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage.", "With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage. Here, the function M · was the Laplace transform, i.e., the moment generating function, of the probability distribution for the serial interval SI of the disease , denoted by h k and k is the mean SI. Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV .", "Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV . We modelled h k as Gamma distributions with mean of 8.0 days and standard deviation SD of 3.6 days by averaging the SI mean and SD of SARS, mean of 7.6 days and SD of 3.4 days , and MERS, mean of 8.4 days and SD of 3.8 days . We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i .", "We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i . A simulation framework was developed for the iterative Poisson process such that E denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R 0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases C i remarkably well, see Figure 1c iterative Poisson process such that denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases Ci remarkably well, see Figure 1c , referring to McFadden's pseudo-R-squared of 0.99. show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases Ci and the daily number of cases εi respectively. In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases. With the MLE of R 0 at 2.56, panels c,d show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases C i and the daily number of cases ε i respectively. In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R 0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak. We note that slightly varying the mean and SD of SI would not affect our main conclusions. The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 .", "The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 . For the simulated daily number of cases ε i , see Figure 1d , we found that ε i matched the observed daily number after 17 January 2020, but was significantly larger than the observations from 1 to 17 January 2020. This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020.", "This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020. We estimated that the reporting rate after 17 January 2020 increased 21-fold 95% CI: compared to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased.", "One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased. Thereafter, the daily number of newly reported cases started increasing rapidly after 17 January 2020, see Figure 1d . We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold.", "We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold. The exact value of the reporting rate was difficult to determine due to lack of serological surveillance data. The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence.", "The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence. The reporting rate is the ratio of reported cases over the number of seropositive individuals. It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak.", "It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak. Previous preprint suggested cumulative cases of 1723 95% CI: 427-4471 as of 12 January 2020, and 4000 95% CI: 1000-9700 as of 18 January 2020 based on the aggregated international export cases . Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak.", "Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak. Although our estimate case number appeared to have a lower mean than those estimated by Imai et al. , they are not statistically different.", ", they are not statistically different. This study applied a different screening effort to detect the 2019-nCoV cases from that in Imai et al. . Imai et al. assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan.", "assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan. Whereas we assumed a constant screening effort applied in Wuhan at the same point of time, and then a number of cases i.e., ξ should have been reported yet failed to be reported in the first half of January 2020 due to all sorts of reasons. It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms.", "It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms. Thus, it was reasonable that our estimates appeared lower than those estimated by Imai et al. .", ". It must be emphasized that such a gap in the knowledge would be resolved by serological survey study for a large population to approximate the actual positive rate or an explicit estimation of the actual reporting rate. Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18-25 compared with the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average, and it should be considered in future investigation. We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 .", "We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 . Author Contributions: All authors conceived the study, carried out the analysis, discussed the results, drafted the first manuscript. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript." ]

[ "Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts of China and a number of foreign countries. The 2019-nCoV cases might have been under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020, and thus we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV. Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth.", "Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth. The number of unreported cases was determined by the maximum likelihood estimation. We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0.", "We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0. Results: We confirmed that the initial growth phase followed an exponential growth pattern. The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18−25 in comparison to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 .", "We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 . Conclusion: The under-reporting was likely to have occurred during the first half of January 2020 and should be considered in future investigation. Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 .", "Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 . The virus causes a range of symptoms including fever, cough, and shortness of breath . The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020.", "The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020. As of 26 January 2020, the still ongoing outbreak had resulted in 2066 618 of them are in Wuhan confirmed cases and 56 45 of them were in Wuhan deaths in mainland China , and sporadic cases exported from Wuhan were reported in Thailand, Japan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia, and the United States, please see the World Health Organization WHO news release via from 14 to 21 January 2020. Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 .", "Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 . Leung et al. drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by .", "drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by . Due to an unknown reason, the cumulative number of cases remained at 41 from 1 to 15 January 2020 according to the official report, i.e., no new case was reported during these 15 days, which appears inconsistent with the following rapid growth of the epidemic curve since 16 January 2020. We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020. In this study, we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R 0 , of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan from 1 to 15 January 2020 based on the limited data in the early outbreak. The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 .", "The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 . The case time series data in December 2019 were obtained from a published study . All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China .", "All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China . We chose the data up to 24 January 2020 instead of to the present study completion date. Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent.", "Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent. We suspected that there was a number of cases, denoted by ξ, under-reported from 1 to 15 January 2020. The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i .", "The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i . We have C i = c i + Ξ i , where c i is observed from the data, and Ξ i is 0 for i before 1 January and ξ for i after 15 January 2020. Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process.", "Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process. Since the data from 1 to 15 January 2020 appeared constant due to unclear reason s , we removed these data from the fitting of exponential growth. The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors.", "The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors. The 95% confidence interval 95% CI of ξ was estimated by the profile likelihood estimation framework with cutoff threshold determined by a Chi-square quantile , χ 2 pr = 0.95, df = 1 . With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage.", "With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage. Here, the function M · was the Laplace transform, i.e., the moment generating function, of the probability distribution for the serial interval SI of the disease , denoted by h k and k is the mean SI. Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV .", "Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV . We modelled h k as Gamma distributions with mean of 8.0 days and standard deviation SD of 3.6 days by averaging the SI mean and SD of SARS, mean of 7.6 days and SD of 3.4 days , and MERS, mean of 8.4 days and SD of 3.8 days . We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i .", "We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i . A simulation framework was developed for the iterative Poisson process such that E denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R 0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases C i remarkably well, see Figure 1c iterative Poisson process such that denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases Ci remarkably well, see Figure 1c , referring to McFadden's pseudo-R-squared of 0.99. show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases Ci and the daily number of cases εi respectively. In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases. With the MLE of R 0 at 2.56, panels c,d show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases C i and the daily number of cases ε i respectively. In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R 0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak. We note that slightly varying the mean and SD of SI would not affect our main conclusions. The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 .", "The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 . For the simulated daily number of cases ε i , see Figure 1d , we found that ε i matched the observed daily number after 17 January 2020, but was significantly larger than the observations from 1 to 17 January 2020. This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020.", "This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020. We estimated that the reporting rate after 17 January 2020 increased 21-fold 95% CI: compared to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased.", "One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased. Thereafter, the daily number of newly reported cases started increasing rapidly after 17 January 2020, see Figure 1d . We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold.", "We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold. The exact value of the reporting rate was difficult to determine due to lack of serological surveillance data. The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence.", "The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence. The reporting rate is the ratio of reported cases over the number of seropositive individuals. It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak.", "It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak. Previous preprint suggested cumulative cases of 1723 95% CI: 427-4471 as of 12 January 2020, and 4000 95% CI: 1000-9700 as of 18 January 2020 based on the aggregated international export cases . Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak.", "Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak. Although our estimate case number appeared to have a lower mean than those estimated by Imai et al. , they are not statistically different.", ", they are not statistically different. This study applied a different screening effort to detect the 2019-nCoV cases from that in Imai et al. . Imai et al. assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan.", "assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan. Whereas we assumed a constant screening effort applied in Wuhan at the same point of time, and then a number of cases i.e., ξ should have been reported yet failed to be reported in the first half of January 2020 due to all sorts of reasons. It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms.", "It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms. Thus, it was reasonable that our estimates appeared lower than those estimated by Imai et al. .", ". It must be emphasized that such a gap in the knowledge would be resolved by serological survey study for a large population to approximate the actual positive rate or an explicit estimation of the actual reporting rate. Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18-25 compared with the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average, and it should be considered in future investigation. We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 .", "We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 . Author Contributions: All authors conceived the study, carried out the analysis, discussed the results, drafted the first manuscript. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript." ]

[ "Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts of China and a number of foreign countries. The 2019-nCoV cases might have been under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020, and thus we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV. Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth.", "Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth. The number of unreported cases was determined by the maximum likelihood estimation. We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0.", "We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0. Results: We confirmed that the initial growth phase followed an exponential growth pattern. The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18−25 in comparison to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 .", "We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 . Conclusion: The under-reporting was likely to have occurred during the first half of January 2020 and should be considered in future investigation. Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 .", "Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 . The virus causes a range of symptoms including fever, cough, and shortness of breath . The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020.", "The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020. As of 26 January 2020, the still ongoing outbreak had resulted in 2066 618 of them are in Wuhan confirmed cases and 56 45 of them were in Wuhan deaths in mainland China , and sporadic cases exported from Wuhan were reported in Thailand, Japan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia, and the United States, please see the World Health Organization WHO news release via from 14 to 21 January 2020. Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 .", "Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 . Leung et al. drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by .", "drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by . Due to an unknown reason, the cumulative number of cases remained at 41 from 1 to 15 January 2020 according to the official report, i.e., no new case was reported during these 15 days, which appears inconsistent with the following rapid growth of the epidemic curve since 16 January 2020. We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020. In this study, we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R 0 , of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan from 1 to 15 January 2020 based on the limited data in the early outbreak. The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 .", "The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 . The case time series data in December 2019 were obtained from a published study . All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China .", "All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China . We chose the data up to 24 January 2020 instead of to the present study completion date. Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent.", "Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent. We suspected that there was a number of cases, denoted by ξ, under-reported from 1 to 15 January 2020. The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i .", "The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i . We have C i = c i + Ξ i , where c i is observed from the data, and Ξ i is 0 for i before 1 January and ξ for i after 15 January 2020. Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process.", "Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process. Since the data from 1 to 15 January 2020 appeared constant due to unclear reason s , we removed these data from the fitting of exponential growth. The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors.", "The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors. The 95% confidence interval 95% CI of ξ was estimated by the profile likelihood estimation framework with cutoff threshold determined by a Chi-square quantile , χ 2 pr = 0.95, df = 1 . With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage.", "With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage. Here, the function M · was the Laplace transform, i.e., the moment generating function, of the probability distribution for the serial interval SI of the disease , denoted by h k and k is the mean SI. Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV .", "Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV . We modelled h k as Gamma distributions with mean of 8.0 days and standard deviation SD of 3.6 days by averaging the SI mean and SD of SARS, mean of 7.6 days and SD of 3.4 days , and MERS, mean of 8.4 days and SD of 3.8 days . We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i .", "We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i . A simulation framework was developed for the iterative Poisson process such that E denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R 0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases C i remarkably well, see Figure 1c iterative Poisson process such that denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases Ci remarkably well, see Figure 1c , referring to McFadden's pseudo-R-squared of 0.99. show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases Ci and the daily number of cases εi respectively. In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases. With the MLE of R 0 at 2.56, panels c,d show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases C i and the daily number of cases ε i respectively. In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R 0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak. We note that slightly varying the mean and SD of SI would not affect our main conclusions. The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 .", "The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 . For the simulated daily number of cases ε i , see Figure 1d , we found that ε i matched the observed daily number after 17 January 2020, but was significantly larger than the observations from 1 to 17 January 2020. This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020.", "This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020. We estimated that the reporting rate after 17 January 2020 increased 21-fold 95% CI: compared to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased.", "One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased. Thereafter, the daily number of newly reported cases started increasing rapidly after 17 January 2020, see Figure 1d . We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold.", "We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold. The exact value of the reporting rate was difficult to determine due to lack of serological surveillance data. The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence.", "The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence. The reporting rate is the ratio of reported cases over the number of seropositive individuals. It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak.", "It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak. Previous preprint suggested cumulative cases of 1723 95% CI: 427-4471 as of 12 January 2020, and 4000 95% CI: 1000-9700 as of 18 January 2020 based on the aggregated international export cases . Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak.", "Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak. Although our estimate case number appeared to have a lower mean than those estimated by Imai et al. , they are not statistically different.", ", they are not statistically different. This study applied a different screening effort to detect the 2019-nCoV cases from that in Imai et al. . Imai et al. assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan.", "assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan. Whereas we assumed a constant screening effort applied in Wuhan at the same point of time, and then a number of cases i.e., ξ should have been reported yet failed to be reported in the first half of January 2020 due to all sorts of reasons. It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms.", "It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms. Thus, it was reasonable that our estimates appeared lower than those estimated by Imai et al. .", ". It must be emphasized that such a gap in the knowledge would be resolved by serological survey study for a large population to approximate the actual positive rate or an explicit estimation of the actual reporting rate. Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18-25 compared with the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average, and it should be considered in future investigation. We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 .", "We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 . Author Contributions: All authors conceived the study, carried out the analysis, discussed the results, drafted the first manuscript. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript." ]

[ "Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts of China and a number of foreign countries. The 2019-nCoV cases might have been under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020, and thus we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV. Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth.", "Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth. The number of unreported cases was determined by the maximum likelihood estimation. We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0.", "We used the serial intervals SI of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses CoV , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0. Results: We confirmed that the initial growth phase followed an exponential growth pattern. The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 95% CI: 403−540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18−25 in comparison to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 .", "We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 . Conclusion: The under-reporting was likely to have occurred during the first half of January 2020 and should be considered in future investigation. Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 .", "Text: A novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 . The virus causes a range of symptoms including fever, cough, and shortness of breath . The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020.", "The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020. As of 26 January 2020, the still ongoing outbreak had resulted in 2066 618 of them are in Wuhan confirmed cases and 56 45 of them were in Wuhan deaths in mainland China , and sporadic cases exported from Wuhan were reported in Thailand, Japan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia, and the United States, please see the World Health Organization WHO news release via from 14 to 21 January 2020. Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 .", "Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 95%CI: 1000-9700 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number R 0 was estimated at 2.6 95%CI: 1.5-3.5 . Leung et al. drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by .", "drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by . Due to an unknown reason, the cumulative number of cases remained at 41 from 1 to 15 January 2020 according to the official report, i.e., no new case was reported during these 15 days, which appears inconsistent with the following rapid growth of the epidemic curve since 16 January 2020. We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020. In this study, we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R 0 , of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan from 1 to 15 January 2020 based on the limited data in the early outbreak. The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 .", "The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 . The case time series data in December 2019 were obtained from a published study . All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China .", "All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China . We chose the data up to 24 January 2020 instead of to the present study completion date. Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent.", "Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent. We suspected that there was a number of cases, denoted by ξ, under-reported from 1 to 15 January 2020. The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i .", "The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i . We have C i = c i + Ξ i , where c i is observed from the data, and Ξ i is 0 for i before 1 January and ξ for i after 15 January 2020. Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process.", "Following previous studies , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process. Since the data from 1 to 15 January 2020 appeared constant due to unclear reason s , we removed these data from the fitting of exponential growth. The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors.", "The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate γ of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors. The 95% confidence interval 95% CI of ξ was estimated by the profile likelihood estimation framework with cutoff threshold determined by a Chi-square quantile , χ 2 pr = 0.95, df = 1 . With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage.", "With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M −γ with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage. Here, the function M · was the Laplace transform, i.e., the moment generating function, of the probability distribution for the serial interval SI of the disease , denoted by h k and k is the mean SI. Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV .", "Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS , which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV . We modelled h k as Gamma distributions with mean of 8.0 days and standard deviation SD of 3.6 days by averaging the SI mean and SD of SARS, mean of 7.6 days and SD of 3.4 days , and MERS, mean of 8.4 days and SD of 3.8 days . We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i .", "We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i . A simulation framework was developed for the iterative Poisson process such that E denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403-540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R 0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases C i remarkably well, see Figure 1c iterative Poisson process such that denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019.", "The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0.", "The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 95% CI: 403−540 , see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, .", "After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49−2.63 , see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 5, . With the R0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases Ci remarkably well, see Figure 1c , referring to McFadden's pseudo-R-squared of 0.99. show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases Ci and the daily number of cases εi respectively. In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c and d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels a,b , the green shading area represents the 95% CI on the horizontal axis , and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate MLE of the number of unreported cases. With the MLE of R 0 at 2.56, panels c,d show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases C i and the daily number of cases ε i respectively. In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "In panels c,d , the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel c , the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples.", "In panel d , the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R 0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV.", "In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak.", "However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak. We note that slightly varying the mean and SD of SI would not affect our main conclusions. The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 .", "The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 , and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 . For the simulated daily number of cases ε i , see Figure 1d , we found that ε i matched the observed daily number after 17 January 2020, but was significantly larger than the observations from 1 to 17 January 2020. This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020.", "This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020. We estimated that the reporting rate after 17 January 2020 increased 21-fold 95% CI: compared to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased.", "One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased. Thereafter, the daily number of newly reported cases started increasing rapidly after 17 January 2020, see Figure 1d . We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold.", "We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold. The exact value of the reporting rate was difficult to determine due to lack of serological surveillance data. The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence.", "The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected seropositive and who was not seronegative , with high confidence. The reporting rate is the ratio of reported cases over the number of seropositive individuals. It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak.", "It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak. Previous preprint suggested cumulative cases of 1723 95% CI: 427-4471 as of 12 January 2020, and 4000 95% CI: 1000-9700 as of 18 January 2020 based on the aggregated international export cases . Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak.", "Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 95% CI: 128-613 as of 12 January 2020, and 609 95% CI: 278-1333 as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak. Although our estimate case number appeared to have a lower mean than those estimated by Imai et al. , they are not statistically different.", ", they are not statistically different. This study applied a different screening effort to detect the 2019-nCoV cases from that in Imai et al. . Imai et al. assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan.", "assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan. Whereas we assumed a constant screening effort applied in Wuhan at the same point of time, and then a number of cases i.e., ξ should have been reported yet failed to be reported in the first half of January 2020 due to all sorts of reasons. It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms.", "It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms. Thus, it was reasonable that our estimates appeared lower than those estimated by Imai et al. .", ". It must be emphasized that such a gap in the knowledge would be resolved by serological survey study for a large population to approximate the actual positive rate or an explicit estimation of the actual reporting rate. Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020.", "Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 95% CI: 403-540 unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold 95% CI: 18-25 compared with the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average, and it should be considered in future investigation. We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 .", "We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 95% CI: 2.49-2.63 . Author Contributions: All authors conceived the study, carried out the analysis, discussed the results, drafted the first manuscript. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript." ]

[ "nan Text: The situation has continued to evolve rapidly since then and just a few weeks later, as at 23 January, 614 laboratory-confirmed cases and 17 deaths have been reported including some cases detected outside mainland China . Meanwhile, on 7 January 2020, the novel coronavirus, currently named 2019-nCoV, was officially announced as the causative agent by Chinese authorities . In order to support public health action, viral genome sequences were released by Chinese researchers on 10 January and 2 days later, four further sequences were also made available on the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data GISAID While more cases are being reported on a daily basis and there is evidence for some human-to-human transmission in China, a number of important questions remain unanswered.", "In order to support public health action, viral genome sequences were released by Chinese researchers on 10 January and 2 days later, four further sequences were also made available on the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data GISAID While more cases are being reported on a daily basis and there is evidence for some human-to-human transmission in China, a number of important questions remain unanswered. For example, there is no certainty about the source of the outbreak, the transmissibility of the virus as well as the clinical picture and severity of the disease. In this issue of Eurosurveillance, we are publishing two articles on different aspects of the newly emerged 2019-nCoV.", "In this issue of Eurosurveillance, we are publishing two articles on different aspects of the newly emerged 2019-nCoV. One is a research article by Corman et al. on the development of a diagnostic methodology based on RT-PCR of the E and RdRp genes, without the need for virus material; the assays were validated in five international laboratories .", "on the development of a diagnostic methodology based on RT-PCR of the E and RdRp genes, without the need for virus material; the assays were validated in five international laboratories . Before this publication, a description of the assays had already been made publically available on a dedicated WHO webpage to support rapid development of laboratory testing capacities. The other is a rapid communication where researchers based in Hong Kong report on their attempt to estimate the severity among hospitalised cases of 2019-nCoV infection through modelling based on publically available information, mainly from Wuhan health authorities .", "The other is a rapid communication where researchers based in Hong Kong report on their attempt to estimate the severity among hospitalised cases of 2019-nCoV infection through modelling based on publically available information, mainly from Wuhan health authorities . It also points out the need for more detailed information to make an informed evaluation of the situation as basis for public health decision-making. Today, the WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, taking into consideration the deliberations of the members of the International Health Regulations IHR Emergency Committee on 2019-nCoV in their second meeting, decided not to declare a public health emergency of international concern.", "Today, the WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, taking into consideration the deliberations of the members of the International Health Regulations IHR Emergency Committee on 2019-nCoV in their second meeting, decided not to declare a public health emergency of international concern. International health organisations such as the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control ECDC and the WHO are monitoring the situation and provide regular updates. ECDC has set up a dedicated webpage on which updates and risk assessments with focus on Europe are available: novel-coronavirus-china." ]

[ "nan Text: The situation has continued to evolve rapidly since then and just a few weeks later, as at 23 January, 614 laboratory-confirmed cases and 17 deaths have been reported including some cases detected outside mainland China . Meanwhile, on 7 January 2020, the novel coronavirus, currently named 2019-nCoV, was officially announced as the causative agent by Chinese authorities . In order to support public health action, viral genome sequences were released by Chinese researchers on 10 January and 2 days later, four further sequences were also made available on the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data GISAID While more cases are being reported on a daily basis and there is evidence for some human-to-human transmission in China, a number of important questions remain unanswered.", "In order to support public health action, viral genome sequences were released by Chinese researchers on 10 January and 2 days later, four further sequences were also made available on the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data GISAID While more cases are being reported on a daily basis and there is evidence for some human-to-human transmission in China, a number of important questions remain unanswered. For example, there is no certainty about the source of the outbreak, the transmissibility of the virus as well as the clinical picture and severity of the disease. In this issue of Eurosurveillance, we are publishing two articles on different aspects of the newly emerged 2019-nCoV.", "In this issue of Eurosurveillance, we are publishing two articles on different aspects of the newly emerged 2019-nCoV. One is a research article by Corman et al. on the development of a diagnostic methodology based on RT-PCR of the E and RdRp genes, without the need for virus material; the assays were validated in five international laboratories .", "on the development of a diagnostic methodology based on RT-PCR of the E and RdRp genes, without the need for virus material; the assays were validated in five international laboratories . Before this publication, a description of the assays had already been made publically available on a dedicated WHO webpage to support rapid development of laboratory testing capacities. The other is a rapid communication where researchers based in Hong Kong report on their attempt to estimate the severity among hospitalised cases of 2019-nCoV infection through modelling based on publically available information, mainly from Wuhan health authorities .", "The other is a rapid communication where researchers based in Hong Kong report on their attempt to estimate the severity among hospitalised cases of 2019-nCoV infection through modelling based on publically available information, mainly from Wuhan health authorities . It also points out the need for more detailed information to make an informed evaluation of the situation as basis for public health decision-making. Today, the WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, taking into consideration the deliberations of the members of the International Health Regulations IHR Emergency Committee on 2019-nCoV in their second meeting, decided not to declare a public health emergency of international concern.", "Today, the WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, taking into consideration the deliberations of the members of the International Health Regulations IHR Emergency Committee on 2019-nCoV in their second meeting, decided not to declare a public health emergency of international concern. International health organisations such as the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control ECDC and the WHO are monitoring the situation and provide regular updates. ECDC has set up a dedicated webpage on which updates and risk assessments with focus on Europe are available: novel-coronavirus-china." ]

[ "2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is an emerging infectious disease closely related to MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV that was first reported in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. As of January 2020, cases of 2019-nCoV are continuing to be reported in other Eastern Asian countries as well as in the United States, Europe, Australia, and numerous other countries. An unusually high volume of domestic and international travel corresponding to the beginning of the 2020 Chinese New Year complicated initial identification and containment of infected persons.", "An unusually high volume of domestic and international travel corresponding to the beginning of the 2020 Chinese New Year complicated initial identification and containment of infected persons. Due to the rapidly rising number of cases and reported deaths, all countries should be considered at risk of imported 2019-nCoV. Therefore, it is essential for prehospital, clinic, and emergency department personnel to be able to rapidly assess 2019-nCoV risk and take immediate actions if indicated.", "Therefore, it is essential for prehospital, clinic, and emergency department personnel to be able to rapidly assess 2019-nCoV risk and take immediate actions if indicated. The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool, originally conceived for the initial detection and management of Ebola virus and later adjusted for other infectious agents, can be adapted for any emerging infectious disease. This paper reports a modification of the 3I Tool for use in the initial detection and management of patients under investigation for 2019-nCoV.", "This paper reports a modification of the 3I Tool for use in the initial detection and management of patients under investigation for 2019-nCoV. After initial assessment for symptoms and epidemiological risk factors, including travel to affected areas and exposure to confirmed 2019-nCoV patients within 14 days, patients are classified in a risk-stratified system. Upon confirmation of a suspected 2019-nCoV case, affected persons must immediately be placed in airborne infection isolation and the appropriate public health agencies notified.", "Upon confirmation of a suspected 2019-nCoV case, affected persons must immediately be placed in airborne infection isolation and the appropriate public health agencies notified. This modified 3I Tool will assist emergency and primary care clinicians, as well as out-of-hospital providers, in effectively managing persons with suspected or confirmed 2019-nCoV. Text: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is a novel respiratory disease first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019.", "Text: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is a novel respiratory disease first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. 1 Chinese health officials were originally investigating a sudden increase in cases of pneumonia which were later determined to be linked to 2019-nCoV. While most cases originated within mainland China, the disease spread to neighboring countries including Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan, and later to the United States, Europe, and Australia.", "While most cases originated within mainland China, the disease spread to neighboring countries including Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan, and later to the United States, Europe, and Australia. A near real-time updated tracking website for cases and locations worldwide, along with reported deaths is available. 2 Chinese health authorities have sequenced 2019-nCoV and freely shared its genetic profile online.", "2 Chinese health authorities have sequenced 2019-nCoV and freely shared its genetic profile online. 3, 4 Additionally, on January 28, 2020, an Australian laboratory reported growing the virus from a patient sample. As of January 30, 2020, there have been at least 9,776 persons infected and 213 verified deaths.", "As of January 30, 2020, there have been at least 9,776 persons infected and 213 verified deaths. 2 These numbers are likely underestimates due to the limited information available regarding incubation time, transmissibility, and virus origin. The What was the research question?", "The What was the research question? Investigators adapted the \"Identify, Isolate, Inform\" 3I Tool for use in suspected cases of 2019-nCoV. What was the major finding of the study? A novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool is designed for frontline clinicians in the management of suspected patients.", "A novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool is designed for frontline clinicians in the management of suspected patients. This 2019-nCoV 3I adaptation will aid healthcare providers most likely to encounter the disease in the containment and effective treatment of patients. age distribution of these verified deaths is currently not available.", "age distribution of these verified deaths is currently not available. One preliminary, small-scale study of 41 patients in Wuhan China, reported 6 deaths 15% mortality with a median age of 49.0 years. 5 Additionally, transmission of the virus has reportedly occurred in healthcare facilities in Wuhan City, raising concerns of spread to healthcare workers, as was seen during prior outbreaks of the novel coronaviruses, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS .", "5 Additionally, transmission of the virus has reportedly occurred in healthcare facilities in Wuhan City, raising concerns of spread to healthcare workers, as was seen during prior outbreaks of the novel coronaviruses, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS . Due to the dynamic nature of the outbreak, exposure criteria may change depending on where new cases of 2019-nCoV are detected, the degree of transmissibility, and when additional information regarding the origin of the virus is discovered and reported. On January 15, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC confirmed the first known imported case of 2019-nCoV in the US state of Washington.", "On January 15, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC confirmed the first known imported case of 2019-nCoV in the US state of Washington. The patient had recently returned from Wuhan City, where he likely contracted the disease. Chicago health authorities reported a second US case on January 24, 2020.", "Chicago health authorities reported a second US case on January 24, 2020. This was quickly followed by additional imported cases reported in Orange and Los Angeles Counties, California on January 26, 2020. Additional suspected cases continue to be evaluated.", "Additional suspected cases continue to be evaluated. On January 30, 2020, the CDC reported the first local transmission in the US between members in a household. On the same day, the World Health Organization declared 2019-nCoV to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern PHEIC .", "On the same day, the World Health Organization declared 2019-nCoV to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern PHEIC . 6 On January 31, 2020, the US Department of Health and Human Services declared coronavirus a public health emergency. 7 Healthy individuals and those with mild illness may be asymptomatic, while others may have more pronounced symptoms of fever or lower respiratory illness.", "7 Healthy individuals and those with mild illness may be asymptomatic, while others may have more pronounced symptoms of fever or lower respiratory illness. Upon identification of a suspected patient, that individual should immediately be isolated with airborne precautions. Further workup and laboratory confirmation can then proceed.", "Further workup and laboratory confirmation can then proceed. Emergency physicians EPs , emergency medical services EMS personnel, and other healthcare workers who encounter patients with suspected 2019-nCoV infection must inform the appropriate authorities, including but not limited to hospital infection control and local or state public health agencies. Healthcare workers must follow on-going developments related to the outbreak, especially new information concerning detection and management.", "Healthcare workers must follow on-going developments related to the outbreak, especially new information concerning detection and management. 8, 9 The 3I Tool outlined in this paper is consistent with current US CDC guidelines and can be applied in a variety of settings such as those in emergency departments, urgent-care clinics, physicians' offices, and prehospital settings. This paper will first briefly review 2019-nCoV and then present the novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool as modified from its initial conception for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies.", "This paper will first briefly review 2019-nCoV and then present the novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool as modified from its initial conception for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies. 18 Coronavirus 2019-nCoV infection commonly presents with signs and symptoms of pneumonia or as a nonspecific lower respiratory illness, with coughing or difficulty breathing accompanied by fever. 5, 19, 20 Fever and cough constitute the most common presentations.", "5, 19, 20 Fever and cough constitute the most common presentations. However, patients may have other respiratory symptoms, sore throat, nasal congestion, malaise, myalgia, and headache. Bilateral infiltrates may be seen on chest X-ray. Severe cases may present with sepsis and even shock.", "Severe cases may present with sepsis and even shock. Conversely, some patients may present as only mildly ill or asymptomatic altogether. 21 To date, patients with underlying medical conditions and the elderly are more likely to become severely ill, require hospitalization, and ultimately die.", "21 To date, patients with underlying medical conditions and the elderly are more likely to become severely ill, require hospitalization, and ultimately die. 22 Early predictions for incubation time are between 2 and 14 days, based on data from similar coronaviruses. The 14-day criterion for epidemiological risk assumes the longest estimated incubation time.", "The 14-day criterion for epidemiological risk assumes the longest estimated incubation time. 23 In addition, the World Health Organization WHO has created its own interim case definition. 24 By definition, the main features of a novel virus, for example, how it is transmitted, will not be immediately known.", "24 By definition, the main features of a novel virus, for example, how it is transmitted, will not be immediately known. However, as with the development of any 3I Tool, it is essential to understand specific characteristics of the disease. In the case of a novel virus such as 2019-CoV, this is challenging since information is rapidly evolving and the science is not yet fully understood.", "In the case of a novel virus such as 2019-CoV, this is challenging since information is rapidly evolving and the science is not yet fully understood. It is possible that the virus will undergo mutations over time that could substantially change its The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus Koenig et al. features.", "features. Nevertheless, an appreciation of the key concepts that drive evidence-based management is beneficial Table 1 . Management guidance will likely change over time. With the initial discovery of a new potential public health threat, it will likely be unclear how patients become sick.", "With the initial discovery of a new potential public health threat, it will likely be unclear how patients become sick. For example, rather than a contagion, there could be a contaminant or a toxin responsible for signs and symptoms. In this case, the possibility of an environmental toxin in the Wuhan Market was a consideration early on when limited to no human-tohuman transmission was reported.", "In this case, the possibility of an environmental toxin in the Wuhan Market was a consideration early on when limited to no human-tohuman transmission was reported. The mode of transmission has implications for the types of personal protective equipment PPE needed to protect healthcare providers in the prehospital, clinic, and hospital settings. 25 In addition, patients may need decontamination after exposure to certain toxins.", "25 In addition, patients may need decontamination after exposure to certain toxins. 26 Another important consideration for application of the 3I Tool is whether the disease is contagious prior to symptom onset like measles or only after symptoms develop like Ebola . A January 30, 2020 letter to the New England Journal of Medicine describes a purported confirmed instance of transmission from an asymptomatic individual.", "A January 30, 2020 letter to the New England Journal of Medicine describes a purported confirmed instance of transmission from an asymptomatic individual. Researchers state that, before symptom onset, the primary case infected two individuals, one of which infected two additional colleagues. 27 Subsequent investigation suggested that the source patient did have mild symptoms and had taken an antipyretic, calling this reported asymptomatic transmission into question.", "27 Subsequent investigation suggested that the source patient did have mild symptoms and had taken an antipyretic, calling this reported asymptomatic transmission into question. While quarantine may not be feasible and can have unintended consequences, 28, 29, 30 it is a public health tool that can be considered in cases when disease is transmissible before symptom onset. 30 Conversely, if a disease is known not to be transmissible prior to symptom onset, asymptomatic exposed patients must be monitored, but do not require quarantine or isolation unless they develop symptoms.", "30 Conversely, if a disease is known not to be transmissible prior to symptom onset, asymptomatic exposed patients must be monitored, but do not require quarantine or isolation unless they develop symptoms. Initially, it may be unclear whether an infectious agent occurred naturally or was deliberately or accidentally released. In this case, a BSL-4 laboratory studying coronaviruses was located approximately 32 kilometers away from the market where initial exposures were felt to occur.", "In this case, a BSL-4 laboratory studying coronaviruses was located approximately 32 kilometers away from the market where initial exposures were felt to occur. 31 Recall that in 2001, the anthrax letter attacks were initially thought to be naturally occurring. Once determined to be bioterrorism, management of the event was similar to that for a chemical exposure with a sudden impact, defined scene, and need for a rapid response and decontamination on site.", "Once determined to be bioterrorism, management of the event was similar to that for a chemical exposure with a sudden impact, defined scene, and need for a rapid response and decontamination on site. This differed from the WHO's modeling predicting an aerosolized release that would result in an incubation period with 100,000 or more persons exposed rather than the 22 people who contracted anthrax in 2001. 32 By understanding the key features of a novel disease, healthcare workers can take evidence-based measures to protect themselves, optimize individual patient management, and prevent further disease spread.", "32 By understanding the key features of a novel disease, healthcare workers can take evidence-based measures to protect themselves, optimize individual patient management, and prevent further disease spread. It is currently unclear how 2019-nCoV is spread, but it is suspected to be transmitted through contact with infected respiratory secretions, like other known coronaviruses. There are instances of sustained human-to-human transmission across generations of cases, especially near the epicenter in Wuhan City.", "There are instances of sustained human-to-human transmission across generations of cases, especially near the epicenter in Wuhan City. 21 Current evidence suggests that close contact with an infected person is a major factor in disease transmission. CDC defines \"close contact\" 33 as being in or within two meters of an area with a confirmed patient or being directly exposed to infectious secretions without appropriate PPE.", "CDC defines \"close contact\" 33 as being in or within two meters of an area with a confirmed patient or being directly exposed to infectious secretions without appropriate PPE. Healthcare facilities in China have reported spread from person to person. In addition, some mildly ill or potentially even asymptomatic patients may have a higher chance of spreading the disease to others as they may be less likely to seek medical care.", "In addition, some mildly ill or potentially even asymptomatic patients may have a higher chance of spreading the disease to others as they may be less likely to seek medical care. 34 The possibility that patients may be infectious prior to symptom onset further compounds the difficulty of containing the virus and effectively preventing transmission. The current majority of 2019-nCoV cases have been within China and its bordering countries.", "The current majority of 2019-nCoV cases have been within China and its bordering countries. 2 Persons with recent travel within 14 days to Wuhan City or another region with widespread disease, or exposure to a patient under investigation, are considered to have an epidemiologic risk factor and should be assessed for signs and symptoms of a viral illness such as fever and respiratory symptoms. Coronavirus is a zoonotic virus The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus that is transmitted to humans via contact with infected animals.", "Coronavirus is a zoonotic virus The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus that is transmitted to humans via contact with infected animals. Preliminary reports suggest the disease may have originated in a seafood and live animal market in Wuhan City, but it is still unknown how or whether such transmission occurred. Clinicians working with local public health departments must arrange to have specimens from patients under investigation PUIs sent to the CDC laboratory.", "Clinicians working with local public health departments must arrange to have specimens from patients under investigation PUIs sent to the CDC laboratory. At this time, the CDC has the only laboratory that can definitively test for 2019-nCoV, though laboratory testing capacity is being rapidly expanded. Polymerase chain reaction PCR assays conducted on samples from a patient's upper and lower respiratory tracts will be used to confirm potential cases.", "Polymerase chain reaction PCR assays conducted on samples from a patient's upper and lower respiratory tracts will be used to confirm potential cases. In addition, serum antibody titers can be analyzed for confirmation of infection or evidence of immunity. Up-to-date information about the needed specimens and handling requirements to test for 2019-nCoV are available on the CDC website.", "Up-to-date information about the needed specimens and handling requirements to test for 2019-nCoV are available on the CDC website. 35 Like other related coronaviruses, patients with 2019-nCoV frequently present with non-specific symptoms resembling that of influenza. Physicians may consider differential diagnoses related to a wide variety of respiratory infections.", "Physicians may consider differential diagnoses related to a wide variety of respiratory infections. In order to relate these symptoms to 2019-nCoV, it is imperative that the identification of a potential exposure event epidemiologic risk factor within 14 days of symptom onset is made so that a more focused work-up for 2019-nCoV can be completed. Although the likelihood of coinfection of 2019-nCoV and another respiratory virus is thought to be low, a positive finding of another respiratory pathogen does not exclude the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV.", "Although the likelihood of coinfection of 2019-nCoV and another respiratory virus is thought to be low, a positive finding of another respiratory pathogen does not exclude the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. Many commercially available respiratory panels include \"coronavirus\" in the results, but neither a positive nor a negative finding on these panels should be used to include or exclude a diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. Supportive care with appropriate infection control is the mainstay of current CDC treatment guidelines for 2019-nCoV.", "Supportive care with appropriate infection control is the mainstay of current CDC treatment guidelines for 2019-nCoV. There are not yet any approved antiviral treatments for 2019-nCoV. Emergency Use Authorizations EUA for compassionate use cases may be forthcoming from the US federal government for normally unapproved treatments. Supportive treatment predominantly includes respiratory support, hydration, and antipyretics.", "Supportive treatment predominantly includes respiratory support, hydration, and antipyretics. General treatment for severe cases should focus on the preservation of vital organ function. In the future, antiviral medications may be available. If a secondary bacterial infection such as pneumonia develops, targeted antibiotics are indicated.", "If a secondary bacterial infection such as pneumonia develops, targeted antibiotics are indicated. Prevention of 2019-nCoV transmission, like any other infectious agent, involves minimizing risk of exposure. Vaccines are under accelerated development and may be useful in the future for post-exposure prophylaxis.", "Vaccines are under accelerated development and may be useful in the future for post-exposure prophylaxis. Healthcare personnel are at increased risk and should practice standard, droplet, and airborne precautions when encountering an infected person, a PUI, or any symptomatic close contacts. Healthcare workers handling specimens should also adhere to CDC guidelines and should not attempt to perform any virus isolation or characterization.", "Healthcare workers handling specimens should also adhere to CDC guidelines and should not attempt to perform any virus isolation or characterization. Fever screening has been implemented at numerous airports, including major international hubs within Asia and the US. The efficacy of this intervention is not well documented, however, as some infected persons may be afebrile and disease transmission might occur prior to symptom onset.", "The efficacy of this intervention is not well documented, however, as some infected persons may be afebrile and disease transmission might occur prior to symptom onset. 27 In addition, people can artificially lower their temperature readings, e.g., by applying ice to their foreheads. As outlined above, admission criteria for 2019-nCoV are similar to that of other patients.", "As outlined above, admission criteria for 2019-nCoV are similar to that of other patients. If patients do not meet medical criteria for hospitalization, they may be discharged home with isolation precautions and continued observation. EPs must notify local public health authorities so appropriate monitoring and community protective measures can be instituted.", "EPs must notify local public health authorities so appropriate monitoring and community protective measures can be instituted. The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool was initially developed for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies. 18 This novel tool for suspected 2019-nCoV patients Figure 1 provides frontline clinicians with a simple algorithm to manage an emerging disease.", "18 This novel tool for suspected 2019-nCoV patients Figure 1 provides frontline clinicians with a simple algorithm to manage an emerging disease. Identification of exposed patients with an epidemiologic risk factor within 14 days of symptom onset is a crucial first step. An automatic prompt in the electronic health record can be useful in assisting clinicians with early identification of patients at risk.", "An automatic prompt in the electronic health record can be useful in assisting clinicians with early identification of patients at risk. Case definitions promulgated by the WHO 24 and CDC 33 provide useful comprehensive definitions that have been incorporated into the 3I Tool. The 2019-nCoV Tool provides an accurate, summarized algorithm to immediately, and effectively manage suspected patients until additional resources can be consulted.", "The 2019-nCoV Tool provides an accurate, summarized algorithm to immediately, and effectively manage suspected patients until additional resources can be consulted. Patients who do not have an exposure risk or any symptoms may be triaged normally. However, before making patient contact, providers must first apply the Vital Sign Zero concept.", "However, before making patient contact, providers must first apply the Vital Sign Zero concept. 36 Vital Sign Zero is a preliminary, non-contact assessment i.e., performed prior to touching a patient to take traditional vital signs to first determine whether specific PPE is indicated before the examination commences. By taking the additional time to complete this assessment, risk of exposure and further transmission can be minimized.", "By taking the additional time to complete this assessment, risk of exposure and further transmission can be minimized. while in the treatment facility should be started and maintained to assist with the possibility of contact tracing. Following isolation, physicians should immediately inform the appropriate authorities.", "Following isolation, physicians should immediately inform the appropriate authorities. Patients who do not meet medical criteria for admission can be isolated at home during the evaluation phase. 37 Health department officials can help prevent transmission in isolated patients by providing in-home monitoring and implementing appropriate exposure-control measures.", "37 Health department officials can help prevent transmission in isolated patients by providing in-home monitoring and implementing appropriate exposure-control measures. Providers in the prehospital setting who have a high likelihood of encountering 2019-nCoV patients, such as those near international ports of entry, should adhere to established exposure control guidelines. 38 Along with appropriate PPE, providers should also carry thermometers to quantify any fever.", "38 Along with appropriate PPE, providers should also carry thermometers to quantify any fever. In the US, providers should contact the appropriate CDC quarantine station upon isolation of infected or suspected patients, especially those from Wuhan, China or other regions with widespread disease, who report symptoms in the last 14 days. As for other infectious diseases, assessing travel history is essential.", "As for other infectious diseases, assessing travel history is essential. Dispatch protocols have been instituted to facilitate identification of callers to 911 or the country-equivalent emergency number prior to prehospital personnel arrival. 39 In addition, CDC has promulgated EMS guidelines for prehospital PPE, transportation of PUIs, vehicle decontamination, and 911 Public Safety Answering Points PSAPs for 2019-nCoV.", "39 In addition, CDC has promulgated EMS guidelines for prehospital PPE, transportation of PUIs, vehicle decontamination, and 911 Public Safety Answering Points PSAPs for 2019-nCoV. 40 2019-nCoV is an emerging infectious disease with rapidly evolving features, the full scope of which will be defined over time. Prior outbreaks of coronaviruses can help inform needed actions in the short term to assist with both treatment of individual patients and prevention of global disease spread.", "Prior outbreaks of coronaviruses can help inform needed actions in the short term to assist with both treatment of individual patients and prevention of global disease spread. This adaptation of the Identify-Isolate-Inform Tool serves as a resource for healthcare workers who need to make clear, rapid assessments when confronted with potential patients. The concise nature of the 2019-nCoV 3I Tool allows for the rapid and effective management of a novel disease by healthcare providers." ]

[ "2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is an emerging infectious disease closely related to MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV that was first reported in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. As of January 2020, cases of 2019-nCoV are continuing to be reported in other Eastern Asian countries as well as in the United States, Europe, Australia, and numerous other countries. An unusually high volume of domestic and international travel corresponding to the beginning of the 2020 Chinese New Year complicated initial identification and containment of infected persons.", "An unusually high volume of domestic and international travel corresponding to the beginning of the 2020 Chinese New Year complicated initial identification and containment of infected persons. Due to the rapidly rising number of cases and reported deaths, all countries should be considered at risk of imported 2019-nCoV. Therefore, it is essential for prehospital, clinic, and emergency department personnel to be able to rapidly assess 2019-nCoV risk and take immediate actions if indicated.", "Therefore, it is essential for prehospital, clinic, and emergency department personnel to be able to rapidly assess 2019-nCoV risk and take immediate actions if indicated. The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool, originally conceived for the initial detection and management of Ebola virus and later adjusted for other infectious agents, can be adapted for any emerging infectious disease. This paper reports a modification of the 3I Tool for use in the initial detection and management of patients under investigation for 2019-nCoV.", "This paper reports a modification of the 3I Tool for use in the initial detection and management of patients under investigation for 2019-nCoV. After initial assessment for symptoms and epidemiological risk factors, including travel to affected areas and exposure to confirmed 2019-nCoV patients within 14 days, patients are classified in a risk-stratified system. Upon confirmation of a suspected 2019-nCoV case, affected persons must immediately be placed in airborne infection isolation and the appropriate public health agencies notified.", "Upon confirmation of a suspected 2019-nCoV case, affected persons must immediately be placed in airborne infection isolation and the appropriate public health agencies notified. This modified 3I Tool will assist emergency and primary care clinicians, as well as out-of-hospital providers, in effectively managing persons with suspected or confirmed 2019-nCoV. Text: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is a novel respiratory disease first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019.", "Text: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is a novel respiratory disease first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. 1 Chinese health officials were originally investigating a sudden increase in cases of pneumonia which were later determined to be linked to 2019-nCoV. While most cases originated within mainland China, the disease spread to neighboring countries including Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan, and later to the United States, Europe, and Australia.", "While most cases originated within mainland China, the disease spread to neighboring countries including Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan, and later to the United States, Europe, and Australia. A near real-time updated tracking website for cases and locations worldwide, along with reported deaths is available. 2 Chinese health authorities have sequenced 2019-nCoV and freely shared its genetic profile online.", "2 Chinese health authorities have sequenced 2019-nCoV and freely shared its genetic profile online. 3, 4 Additionally, on January 28, 2020, an Australian laboratory reported growing the virus from a patient sample. As of January 30, 2020, there have been at least 9,776 persons infected and 213 verified deaths.", "As of January 30, 2020, there have been at least 9,776 persons infected and 213 verified deaths. 2 These numbers are likely underestimates due to the limited information available regarding incubation time, transmissibility, and virus origin. The What was the research question?", "The What was the research question? Investigators adapted the \"Identify, Isolate, Inform\" 3I Tool for use in suspected cases of 2019-nCoV. What was the major finding of the study? A novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool is designed for frontline clinicians in the management of suspected patients.", "A novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool is designed for frontline clinicians in the management of suspected patients. This 2019-nCoV 3I adaptation will aid healthcare providers most likely to encounter the disease in the containment and effective treatment of patients. age distribution of these verified deaths is currently not available.", "age distribution of these verified deaths is currently not available. One preliminary, small-scale study of 41 patients in Wuhan China, reported 6 deaths 15% mortality with a median age of 49.0 years. 5 Additionally, transmission of the virus has reportedly occurred in healthcare facilities in Wuhan City, raising concerns of spread to healthcare workers, as was seen during prior outbreaks of the novel coronaviruses, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS .", "5 Additionally, transmission of the virus has reportedly occurred in healthcare facilities in Wuhan City, raising concerns of spread to healthcare workers, as was seen during prior outbreaks of the novel coronaviruses, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS . Due to the dynamic nature of the outbreak, exposure criteria may change depending on where new cases of 2019-nCoV are detected, the degree of transmissibility, and when additional information regarding the origin of the virus is discovered and reported. On January 15, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC confirmed the first known imported case of 2019-nCoV in the US state of Washington.", "On January 15, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC confirmed the first known imported case of 2019-nCoV in the US state of Washington. The patient had recently returned from Wuhan City, where he likely contracted the disease. Chicago health authorities reported a second US case on January 24, 2020.", "Chicago health authorities reported a second US case on January 24, 2020. This was quickly followed by additional imported cases reported in Orange and Los Angeles Counties, California on January 26, 2020. Additional suspected cases continue to be evaluated.", "Additional suspected cases continue to be evaluated. On January 30, 2020, the CDC reported the first local transmission in the US between members in a household. On the same day, the World Health Organization declared 2019-nCoV to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern PHEIC .", "On the same day, the World Health Organization declared 2019-nCoV to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern PHEIC . 6 On January 31, 2020, the US Department of Health and Human Services declared coronavirus a public health emergency. 7 Healthy individuals and those with mild illness may be asymptomatic, while others may have more pronounced symptoms of fever or lower respiratory illness.", "7 Healthy individuals and those with mild illness may be asymptomatic, while others may have more pronounced symptoms of fever or lower respiratory illness. Upon identification of a suspected patient, that individual should immediately be isolated with airborne precautions. Further workup and laboratory confirmation can then proceed.", "Further workup and laboratory confirmation can then proceed. Emergency physicians EPs , emergency medical services EMS personnel, and other healthcare workers who encounter patients with suspected 2019-nCoV infection must inform the appropriate authorities, including but not limited to hospital infection control and local or state public health agencies. Healthcare workers must follow on-going developments related to the outbreak, especially new information concerning detection and management.", "Healthcare workers must follow on-going developments related to the outbreak, especially new information concerning detection and management. 8, 9 The 3I Tool outlined in this paper is consistent with current US CDC guidelines and can be applied in a variety of settings such as those in emergency departments, urgent-care clinics, physicians' offices, and prehospital settings. This paper will first briefly review 2019-nCoV and then present the novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool as modified from its initial conception for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies.", "This paper will first briefly review 2019-nCoV and then present the novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool as modified from its initial conception for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies. 18 Coronavirus 2019-nCoV infection commonly presents with signs and symptoms of pneumonia or as a nonspecific lower respiratory illness, with coughing or difficulty breathing accompanied by fever. 5, 19, 20 Fever and cough constitute the most common presentations.", "5, 19, 20 Fever and cough constitute the most common presentations. However, patients may have other respiratory symptoms, sore throat, nasal congestion, malaise, myalgia, and headache. Bilateral infiltrates may be seen on chest X-ray. Severe cases may present with sepsis and even shock.", "Severe cases may present with sepsis and even shock. Conversely, some patients may present as only mildly ill or asymptomatic altogether. 21 To date, patients with underlying medical conditions and the elderly are more likely to become severely ill, require hospitalization, and ultimately die.", "21 To date, patients with underlying medical conditions and the elderly are more likely to become severely ill, require hospitalization, and ultimately die. 22 Early predictions for incubation time are between 2 and 14 days, based on data from similar coronaviruses. The 14-day criterion for epidemiological risk assumes the longest estimated incubation time.", "The 14-day criterion for epidemiological risk assumes the longest estimated incubation time. 23 In addition, the World Health Organization WHO has created its own interim case definition. 24 By definition, the main features of a novel virus, for example, how it is transmitted, will not be immediately known.", "24 By definition, the main features of a novel virus, for example, how it is transmitted, will not be immediately known. However, as with the development of any 3I Tool, it is essential to understand specific characteristics of the disease. In the case of a novel virus such as 2019-CoV, this is challenging since information is rapidly evolving and the science is not yet fully understood.", "In the case of a novel virus such as 2019-CoV, this is challenging since information is rapidly evolving and the science is not yet fully understood. It is possible that the virus will undergo mutations over time that could substantially change its The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus Koenig et al. features.", "features. Nevertheless, an appreciation of the key concepts that drive evidence-based management is beneficial Table 1 . Management guidance will likely change over time. With the initial discovery of a new potential public health threat, it will likely be unclear how patients become sick.", "With the initial discovery of a new potential public health threat, it will likely be unclear how patients become sick. For example, rather than a contagion, there could be a contaminant or a toxin responsible for signs and symptoms. In this case, the possibility of an environmental toxin in the Wuhan Market was a consideration early on when limited to no human-tohuman transmission was reported.", "In this case, the possibility of an environmental toxin in the Wuhan Market was a consideration early on when limited to no human-tohuman transmission was reported. The mode of transmission has implications for the types of personal protective equipment PPE needed to protect healthcare providers in the prehospital, clinic, and hospital settings. 25 In addition, patients may need decontamination after exposure to certain toxins.", "25 In addition, patients may need decontamination after exposure to certain toxins. 26 Another important consideration for application of the 3I Tool is whether the disease is contagious prior to symptom onset like measles or only after symptoms develop like Ebola . A January 30, 2020 letter to the New England Journal of Medicine describes a purported confirmed instance of transmission from an asymptomatic individual.", "A January 30, 2020 letter to the New England Journal of Medicine describes a purported confirmed instance of transmission from an asymptomatic individual. Researchers state that, before symptom onset, the primary case infected two individuals, one of which infected two additional colleagues. 27 Subsequent investigation suggested that the source patient did have mild symptoms and had taken an antipyretic, calling this reported asymptomatic transmission into question.", "27 Subsequent investigation suggested that the source patient did have mild symptoms and had taken an antipyretic, calling this reported asymptomatic transmission into question. While quarantine may not be feasible and can have unintended consequences, 28, 29, 30 it is a public health tool that can be considered in cases when disease is transmissible before symptom onset. 30 Conversely, if a disease is known not to be transmissible prior to symptom onset, asymptomatic exposed patients must be monitored, but do not require quarantine or isolation unless they develop symptoms.", "30 Conversely, if a disease is known not to be transmissible prior to symptom onset, asymptomatic exposed patients must be monitored, but do not require quarantine or isolation unless they develop symptoms. Initially, it may be unclear whether an infectious agent occurred naturally or was deliberately or accidentally released. In this case, a BSL-4 laboratory studying coronaviruses was located approximately 32 kilometers away from the market where initial exposures were felt to occur.", "In this case, a BSL-4 laboratory studying coronaviruses was located approximately 32 kilometers away from the market where initial exposures were felt to occur. 31 Recall that in 2001, the anthrax letter attacks were initially thought to be naturally occurring. Once determined to be bioterrorism, management of the event was similar to that for a chemical exposure with a sudden impact, defined scene, and need for a rapid response and decontamination on site.", "Once determined to be bioterrorism, management of the event was similar to that for a chemical exposure with a sudden impact, defined scene, and need for a rapid response and decontamination on site. This differed from the WHO's modeling predicting an aerosolized release that would result in an incubation period with 100,000 or more persons exposed rather than the 22 people who contracted anthrax in 2001. 32 By understanding the key features of a novel disease, healthcare workers can take evidence-based measures to protect themselves, optimize individual patient management, and prevent further disease spread.", "32 By understanding the key features of a novel disease, healthcare workers can take evidence-based measures to protect themselves, optimize individual patient management, and prevent further disease spread. It is currently unclear how 2019-nCoV is spread, but it is suspected to be transmitted through contact with infected respiratory secretions, like other known coronaviruses. There are instances of sustained human-to-human transmission across generations of cases, especially near the epicenter in Wuhan City.", "There are instances of sustained human-to-human transmission across generations of cases, especially near the epicenter in Wuhan City. 21 Current evidence suggests that close contact with an infected person is a major factor in disease transmission. CDC defines \"close contact\" 33 as being in or within two meters of an area with a confirmed patient or being directly exposed to infectious secretions without appropriate PPE.", "CDC defines \"close contact\" 33 as being in or within two meters of an area with a confirmed patient or being directly exposed to infectious secretions without appropriate PPE. Healthcare facilities in China have reported spread from person to person. In addition, some mildly ill or potentially even asymptomatic patients may have a higher chance of spreading the disease to others as they may be less likely to seek medical care.", "In addition, some mildly ill or potentially even asymptomatic patients may have a higher chance of spreading the disease to others as they may be less likely to seek medical care. 34 The possibility that patients may be infectious prior to symptom onset further compounds the difficulty of containing the virus and effectively preventing transmission. The current majority of 2019-nCoV cases have been within China and its bordering countries.", "The current majority of 2019-nCoV cases have been within China and its bordering countries. 2 Persons with recent travel within 14 days to Wuhan City or another region with widespread disease, or exposure to a patient under investigation, are considered to have an epidemiologic risk factor and should be assessed for signs and symptoms of a viral illness such as fever and respiratory symptoms. Coronavirus is a zoonotic virus The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus that is transmitted to humans via contact with infected animals.", "Coronavirus is a zoonotic virus The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus that is transmitted to humans via contact with infected animals. Preliminary reports suggest the disease may have originated in a seafood and live animal market in Wuhan City, but it is still unknown how or whether such transmission occurred. Clinicians working with local public health departments must arrange to have specimens from patients under investigation PUIs sent to the CDC laboratory.", "Clinicians working with local public health departments must arrange to have specimens from patients under investigation PUIs sent to the CDC laboratory. At this time, the CDC has the only laboratory that can definitively test for 2019-nCoV, though laboratory testing capacity is being rapidly expanded. Polymerase chain reaction PCR assays conducted on samples from a patient's upper and lower respiratory tracts will be used to confirm potential cases.", "Polymerase chain reaction PCR assays conducted on samples from a patient's upper and lower respiratory tracts will be used to confirm potential cases. In addition, serum antibody titers can be analyzed for confirmation of infection or evidence of immunity. Up-to-date information about the needed specimens and handling requirements to test for 2019-nCoV are available on the CDC website.", "Up-to-date information about the needed specimens and handling requirements to test for 2019-nCoV are available on the CDC website. 35 Like other related coronaviruses, patients with 2019-nCoV frequently present with non-specific symptoms resembling that of influenza. Physicians may consider differential diagnoses related to a wide variety of respiratory infections.", "Physicians may consider differential diagnoses related to a wide variety of respiratory infections. In order to relate these symptoms to 2019-nCoV, it is imperative that the identification of a potential exposure event epidemiologic risk factor within 14 days of symptom onset is made so that a more focused work-up for 2019-nCoV can be completed. Although the likelihood of coinfection of 2019-nCoV and another respiratory virus is thought to be low, a positive finding of another respiratory pathogen does not exclude the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV.", "Although the likelihood of coinfection of 2019-nCoV and another respiratory virus is thought to be low, a positive finding of another respiratory pathogen does not exclude the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. Many commercially available respiratory panels include \"coronavirus\" in the results, but neither a positive nor a negative finding on these panels should be used to include or exclude a diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. Supportive care with appropriate infection control is the mainstay of current CDC treatment guidelines for 2019-nCoV.", "Supportive care with appropriate infection control is the mainstay of current CDC treatment guidelines for 2019-nCoV. There are not yet any approved antiviral treatments for 2019-nCoV. Emergency Use Authorizations EUA for compassionate use cases may be forthcoming from the US federal government for normally unapproved treatments. Supportive treatment predominantly includes respiratory support, hydration, and antipyretics.", "Supportive treatment predominantly includes respiratory support, hydration, and antipyretics. General treatment for severe cases should focus on the preservation of vital organ function. In the future, antiviral medications may be available. If a secondary bacterial infection such as pneumonia develops, targeted antibiotics are indicated.", "If a secondary bacterial infection such as pneumonia develops, targeted antibiotics are indicated. Prevention of 2019-nCoV transmission, like any other infectious agent, involves minimizing risk of exposure. Vaccines are under accelerated development and may be useful in the future for post-exposure prophylaxis.", "Vaccines are under accelerated development and may be useful in the future for post-exposure prophylaxis. Healthcare personnel are at increased risk and should practice standard, droplet, and airborne precautions when encountering an infected person, a PUI, or any symptomatic close contacts. Healthcare workers handling specimens should also adhere to CDC guidelines and should not attempt to perform any virus isolation or characterization.", "Healthcare workers handling specimens should also adhere to CDC guidelines and should not attempt to perform any virus isolation or characterization. Fever screening has been implemented at numerous airports, including major international hubs within Asia and the US. The efficacy of this intervention is not well documented, however, as some infected persons may be afebrile and disease transmission might occur prior to symptom onset.", "The efficacy of this intervention is not well documented, however, as some infected persons may be afebrile and disease transmission might occur prior to symptom onset. 27 In addition, people can artificially lower their temperature readings, e.g., by applying ice to their foreheads. As outlined above, admission criteria for 2019-nCoV are similar to that of other patients.", "As outlined above, admission criteria for 2019-nCoV are similar to that of other patients. If patients do not meet medical criteria for hospitalization, they may be discharged home with isolation precautions and continued observation. EPs must notify local public health authorities so appropriate monitoring and community protective measures can be instituted.", "EPs must notify local public health authorities so appropriate monitoring and community protective measures can be instituted. The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool was initially developed for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies. 18 This novel tool for suspected 2019-nCoV patients Figure 1 provides frontline clinicians with a simple algorithm to manage an emerging disease.", "18 This novel tool for suspected 2019-nCoV patients Figure 1 provides frontline clinicians with a simple algorithm to manage an emerging disease. Identification of exposed patients with an epidemiologic risk factor within 14 days of symptom onset is a crucial first step. An automatic prompt in the electronic health record can be useful in assisting clinicians with early identification of patients at risk.", "An automatic prompt in the electronic health record can be useful in assisting clinicians with early identification of patients at risk. Case definitions promulgated by the WHO 24 and CDC 33 provide useful comprehensive definitions that have been incorporated into the 3I Tool. The 2019-nCoV Tool provides an accurate, summarized algorithm to immediately, and effectively manage suspected patients until additional resources can be consulted.", "The 2019-nCoV Tool provides an accurate, summarized algorithm to immediately, and effectively manage suspected patients until additional resources can be consulted. Patients who do not have an exposure risk or any symptoms may be triaged normally. However, before making patient contact, providers must first apply the Vital Sign Zero concept.", "However, before making patient contact, providers must first apply the Vital Sign Zero concept. 36 Vital Sign Zero is a preliminary, non-contact assessment i.e., performed prior to touching a patient to take traditional vital signs to first determine whether specific PPE is indicated before the examination commences. By taking the additional time to complete this assessment, risk of exposure and further transmission can be minimized.", "By taking the additional time to complete this assessment, risk of exposure and further transmission can be minimized. while in the treatment facility should be started and maintained to assist with the possibility of contact tracing. Following isolation, physicians should immediately inform the appropriate authorities.", "Following isolation, physicians should immediately inform the appropriate authorities. Patients who do not meet medical criteria for admission can be isolated at home during the evaluation phase. 37 Health department officials can help prevent transmission in isolated patients by providing in-home monitoring and implementing appropriate exposure-control measures.", "37 Health department officials can help prevent transmission in isolated patients by providing in-home monitoring and implementing appropriate exposure-control measures. Providers in the prehospital setting who have a high likelihood of encountering 2019-nCoV patients, such as those near international ports of entry, should adhere to established exposure control guidelines. 38 Along with appropriate PPE, providers should also carry thermometers to quantify any fever.", "38 Along with appropriate PPE, providers should also carry thermometers to quantify any fever. In the US, providers should contact the appropriate CDC quarantine station upon isolation of infected or suspected patients, especially those from Wuhan, China or other regions with widespread disease, who report symptoms in the last 14 days. As for other infectious diseases, assessing travel history is essential.", "As for other infectious diseases, assessing travel history is essential. Dispatch protocols have been instituted to facilitate identification of callers to 911 or the country-equivalent emergency number prior to prehospital personnel arrival. 39 In addition, CDC has promulgated EMS guidelines for prehospital PPE, transportation of PUIs, vehicle decontamination, and 911 Public Safety Answering Points PSAPs for 2019-nCoV.", "39 In addition, CDC has promulgated EMS guidelines for prehospital PPE, transportation of PUIs, vehicle decontamination, and 911 Public Safety Answering Points PSAPs for 2019-nCoV. 40 2019-nCoV is an emerging infectious disease with rapidly evolving features, the full scope of which will be defined over time. Prior outbreaks of coronaviruses can help inform needed actions in the short term to assist with both treatment of individual patients and prevention of global disease spread.", "Prior outbreaks of coronaviruses can help inform needed actions in the short term to assist with both treatment of individual patients and prevention of global disease spread. This adaptation of the Identify-Isolate-Inform Tool serves as a resource for healthcare workers who need to make clear, rapid assessments when confronted with potential patients. The concise nature of the 2019-nCoV 3I Tool allows for the rapid and effective management of a novel disease by healthcare providers." ]

[ "2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is an emerging infectious disease closely related to MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV that was first reported in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. As of January 2020, cases of 2019-nCoV are continuing to be reported in other Eastern Asian countries as well as in the United States, Europe, Australia, and numerous other countries. An unusually high volume of domestic and international travel corresponding to the beginning of the 2020 Chinese New Year complicated initial identification and containment of infected persons.", "An unusually high volume of domestic and international travel corresponding to the beginning of the 2020 Chinese New Year complicated initial identification and containment of infected persons. Due to the rapidly rising number of cases and reported deaths, all countries should be considered at risk of imported 2019-nCoV. Therefore, it is essential for prehospital, clinic, and emergency department personnel to be able to rapidly assess 2019-nCoV risk and take immediate actions if indicated.", "Therefore, it is essential for prehospital, clinic, and emergency department personnel to be able to rapidly assess 2019-nCoV risk and take immediate actions if indicated. The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool, originally conceived for the initial detection and management of Ebola virus and later adjusted for other infectious agents, can be adapted for any emerging infectious disease. This paper reports a modification of the 3I Tool for use in the initial detection and management of patients under investigation for 2019-nCoV.", "This paper reports a modification of the 3I Tool for use in the initial detection and management of patients under investigation for 2019-nCoV. After initial assessment for symptoms and epidemiological risk factors, including travel to affected areas and exposure to confirmed 2019-nCoV patients within 14 days, patients are classified in a risk-stratified system. Upon confirmation of a suspected 2019-nCoV case, affected persons must immediately be placed in airborne infection isolation and the appropriate public health agencies notified.", "Upon confirmation of a suspected 2019-nCoV case, affected persons must immediately be placed in airborne infection isolation and the appropriate public health agencies notified. This modified 3I Tool will assist emergency and primary care clinicians, as well as out-of-hospital providers, in effectively managing persons with suspected or confirmed 2019-nCoV. Text: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is a novel respiratory disease first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019.", "Text: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is a novel respiratory disease first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. 1 Chinese health officials were originally investigating a sudden increase in cases of pneumonia which were later determined to be linked to 2019-nCoV. While most cases originated within mainland China, the disease spread to neighboring countries including Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan, and later to the United States, Europe, and Australia.", "While most cases originated within mainland China, the disease spread to neighboring countries including Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan, and later to the United States, Europe, and Australia. A near real-time updated tracking website for cases and locations worldwide, along with reported deaths is available. 2 Chinese health authorities have sequenced 2019-nCoV and freely shared its genetic profile online.", "2 Chinese health authorities have sequenced 2019-nCoV and freely shared its genetic profile online. 3, 4 Additionally, on January 28, 2020, an Australian laboratory reported growing the virus from a patient sample. As of January 30, 2020, there have been at least 9,776 persons infected and 213 verified deaths.", "As of January 30, 2020, there have been at least 9,776 persons infected and 213 verified deaths. 2 These numbers are likely underestimates due to the limited information available regarding incubation time, transmissibility, and virus origin. The What was the research question?", "The What was the research question? Investigators adapted the \"Identify, Isolate, Inform\" 3I Tool for use in suspected cases of 2019-nCoV. What was the major finding of the study? A novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool is designed for frontline clinicians in the management of suspected patients.", "A novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool is designed for frontline clinicians in the management of suspected patients. This 2019-nCoV 3I adaptation will aid healthcare providers most likely to encounter the disease in the containment and effective treatment of patients. age distribution of these verified deaths is currently not available.", "age distribution of these verified deaths is currently not available. One preliminary, small-scale study of 41 patients in Wuhan China, reported 6 deaths 15% mortality with a median age of 49.0 years. 5 Additionally, transmission of the virus has reportedly occurred in healthcare facilities in Wuhan City, raising concerns of spread to healthcare workers, as was seen during prior outbreaks of the novel coronaviruses, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS .", "5 Additionally, transmission of the virus has reportedly occurred in healthcare facilities in Wuhan City, raising concerns of spread to healthcare workers, as was seen during prior outbreaks of the novel coronaviruses, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS . Due to the dynamic nature of the outbreak, exposure criteria may change depending on where new cases of 2019-nCoV are detected, the degree of transmissibility, and when additional information regarding the origin of the virus is discovered and reported. On January 15, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC confirmed the first known imported case of 2019-nCoV in the US state of Washington.", "On January 15, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC confirmed the first known imported case of 2019-nCoV in the US state of Washington. The patient had recently returned from Wuhan City, where he likely contracted the disease. Chicago health authorities reported a second US case on January 24, 2020.", "Chicago health authorities reported a second US case on January 24, 2020. This was quickly followed by additional imported cases reported in Orange and Los Angeles Counties, California on January 26, 2020. Additional suspected cases continue to be evaluated.", "Additional suspected cases continue to be evaluated. On January 30, 2020, the CDC reported the first local transmission in the US between members in a household. On the same day, the World Health Organization declared 2019-nCoV to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern PHEIC .", "On the same day, the World Health Organization declared 2019-nCoV to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern PHEIC . 6 On January 31, 2020, the US Department of Health and Human Services declared coronavirus a public health emergency. 7 Healthy individuals and those with mild illness may be asymptomatic, while others may have more pronounced symptoms of fever or lower respiratory illness.", "7 Healthy individuals and those with mild illness may be asymptomatic, while others may have more pronounced symptoms of fever or lower respiratory illness. Upon identification of a suspected patient, that individual should immediately be isolated with airborne precautions. Further workup and laboratory confirmation can then proceed.", "Further workup and laboratory confirmation can then proceed. Emergency physicians EPs , emergency medical services EMS personnel, and other healthcare workers who encounter patients with suspected 2019-nCoV infection must inform the appropriate authorities, including but not limited to hospital infection control and local or state public health agencies. Healthcare workers must follow on-going developments related to the outbreak, especially new information concerning detection and management.", "Healthcare workers must follow on-going developments related to the outbreak, especially new information concerning detection and management. 8, 9 The 3I Tool outlined in this paper is consistent with current US CDC guidelines and can be applied in a variety of settings such as those in emergency departments, urgent-care clinics, physicians' offices, and prehospital settings. This paper will first briefly review 2019-nCoV and then present the novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool as modified from its initial conception for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies.", "This paper will first briefly review 2019-nCoV and then present the novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool as modified from its initial conception for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies. 18 Coronavirus 2019-nCoV infection commonly presents with signs and symptoms of pneumonia or as a nonspecific lower respiratory illness, with coughing or difficulty breathing accompanied by fever. 5, 19, 20 Fever and cough constitute the most common presentations.", "5, 19, 20 Fever and cough constitute the most common presentations. However, patients may have other respiratory symptoms, sore throat, nasal congestion, malaise, myalgia, and headache. Bilateral infiltrates may be seen on chest X-ray. Severe cases may present with sepsis and even shock.", "Severe cases may present with sepsis and even shock. Conversely, some patients may present as only mildly ill or asymptomatic altogether. 21 To date, patients with underlying medical conditions and the elderly are more likely to become severely ill, require hospitalization, and ultimately die.", "21 To date, patients with underlying medical conditions and the elderly are more likely to become severely ill, require hospitalization, and ultimately die. 22 Early predictions for incubation time are between 2 and 14 days, based on data from similar coronaviruses. The 14-day criterion for epidemiological risk assumes the longest estimated incubation time.", "The 14-day criterion for epidemiological risk assumes the longest estimated incubation time. 23 In addition, the World Health Organization WHO has created its own interim case definition. 24 By definition, the main features of a novel virus, for example, how it is transmitted, will not be immediately known.", "24 By definition, the main features of a novel virus, for example, how it is transmitted, will not be immediately known. However, as with the development of any 3I Tool, it is essential to understand specific characteristics of the disease. In the case of a novel virus such as 2019-CoV, this is challenging since information is rapidly evolving and the science is not yet fully understood.", "In the case of a novel virus such as 2019-CoV, this is challenging since information is rapidly evolving and the science is not yet fully understood. It is possible that the virus will undergo mutations over time that could substantially change its The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus Koenig et al. features.", "features. Nevertheless, an appreciation of the key concepts that drive evidence-based management is beneficial Table 1 . Management guidance will likely change over time. With the initial discovery of a new potential public health threat, it will likely be unclear how patients become sick.", "With the initial discovery of a new potential public health threat, it will likely be unclear how patients become sick. For example, rather than a contagion, there could be a contaminant or a toxin responsible for signs and symptoms. In this case, the possibility of an environmental toxin in the Wuhan Market was a consideration early on when limited to no human-tohuman transmission was reported.", "In this case, the possibility of an environmental toxin in the Wuhan Market was a consideration early on when limited to no human-tohuman transmission was reported. The mode of transmission has implications for the types of personal protective equipment PPE needed to protect healthcare providers in the prehospital, clinic, and hospital settings. 25 In addition, patients may need decontamination after exposure to certain toxins.", "25 In addition, patients may need decontamination after exposure to certain toxins. 26 Another important consideration for application of the 3I Tool is whether the disease is contagious prior to symptom onset like measles or only after symptoms develop like Ebola . A January 30, 2020 letter to the New England Journal of Medicine describes a purported confirmed instance of transmission from an asymptomatic individual.", "A January 30, 2020 letter to the New England Journal of Medicine describes a purported confirmed instance of transmission from an asymptomatic individual. Researchers state that, before symptom onset, the primary case infected two individuals, one of which infected two additional colleagues. 27 Subsequent investigation suggested that the source patient did have mild symptoms and had taken an antipyretic, calling this reported asymptomatic transmission into question.", "27 Subsequent investigation suggested that the source patient did have mild symptoms and had taken an antipyretic, calling this reported asymptomatic transmission into question. While quarantine may not be feasible and can have unintended consequences, 28, 29, 30 it is a public health tool that can be considered in cases when disease is transmissible before symptom onset. 30 Conversely, if a disease is known not to be transmissible prior to symptom onset, asymptomatic exposed patients must be monitored, but do not require quarantine or isolation unless they develop symptoms.", "30 Conversely, if a disease is known not to be transmissible prior to symptom onset, asymptomatic exposed patients must be monitored, but do not require quarantine or isolation unless they develop symptoms. Initially, it may be unclear whether an infectious agent occurred naturally or was deliberately or accidentally released. In this case, a BSL-4 laboratory studying coronaviruses was located approximately 32 kilometers away from the market where initial exposures were felt to occur.", "In this case, a BSL-4 laboratory studying coronaviruses was located approximately 32 kilometers away from the market where initial exposures were felt to occur. 31 Recall that in 2001, the anthrax letter attacks were initially thought to be naturally occurring. Once determined to be bioterrorism, management of the event was similar to that for a chemical exposure with a sudden impact, defined scene, and need for a rapid response and decontamination on site.", "Once determined to be bioterrorism, management of the event was similar to that for a chemical exposure with a sudden impact, defined scene, and need for a rapid response and decontamination on site. This differed from the WHO's modeling predicting an aerosolized release that would result in an incubation period with 100,000 or more persons exposed rather than the 22 people who contracted anthrax in 2001. 32 By understanding the key features of a novel disease, healthcare workers can take evidence-based measures to protect themselves, optimize individual patient management, and prevent further disease spread.", "32 By understanding the key features of a novel disease, healthcare workers can take evidence-based measures to protect themselves, optimize individual patient management, and prevent further disease spread. It is currently unclear how 2019-nCoV is spread, but it is suspected to be transmitted through contact with infected respiratory secretions, like other known coronaviruses. There are instances of sustained human-to-human transmission across generations of cases, especially near the epicenter in Wuhan City.", "There are instances of sustained human-to-human transmission across generations of cases, especially near the epicenter in Wuhan City. 21 Current evidence suggests that close contact with an infected person is a major factor in disease transmission. CDC defines \"close contact\" 33 as being in or within two meters of an area with a confirmed patient or being directly exposed to infectious secretions without appropriate PPE.", "CDC defines \"close contact\" 33 as being in or within two meters of an area with a confirmed patient or being directly exposed to infectious secretions without appropriate PPE. Healthcare facilities in China have reported spread from person to person. In addition, some mildly ill or potentially even asymptomatic patients may have a higher chance of spreading the disease to others as they may be less likely to seek medical care.", "In addition, some mildly ill or potentially even asymptomatic patients may have a higher chance of spreading the disease to others as they may be less likely to seek medical care. 34 The possibility that patients may be infectious prior to symptom onset further compounds the difficulty of containing the virus and effectively preventing transmission. The current majority of 2019-nCoV cases have been within China and its bordering countries.", "The current majority of 2019-nCoV cases have been within China and its bordering countries. 2 Persons with recent travel within 14 days to Wuhan City or another region with widespread disease, or exposure to a patient under investigation, are considered to have an epidemiologic risk factor and should be assessed for signs and symptoms of a viral illness such as fever and respiratory symptoms. Coronavirus is a zoonotic virus The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus that is transmitted to humans via contact with infected animals.", "Coronavirus is a zoonotic virus The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus that is transmitted to humans via contact with infected animals. Preliminary reports suggest the disease may have originated in a seafood and live animal market in Wuhan City, but it is still unknown how or whether such transmission occurred. Clinicians working with local public health departments must arrange to have specimens from patients under investigation PUIs sent to the CDC laboratory.", "Clinicians working with local public health departments must arrange to have specimens from patients under investigation PUIs sent to the CDC laboratory. At this time, the CDC has the only laboratory that can definitively test for 2019-nCoV, though laboratory testing capacity is being rapidly expanded. Polymerase chain reaction PCR assays conducted on samples from a patient's upper and lower respiratory tracts will be used to confirm potential cases.", "Polymerase chain reaction PCR assays conducted on samples from a patient's upper and lower respiratory tracts will be used to confirm potential cases. In addition, serum antibody titers can be analyzed for confirmation of infection or evidence of immunity. Up-to-date information about the needed specimens and handling requirements to test for 2019-nCoV are available on the CDC website.", "Up-to-date information about the needed specimens and handling requirements to test for 2019-nCoV are available on the CDC website. 35 Like other related coronaviruses, patients with 2019-nCoV frequently present with non-specific symptoms resembling that of influenza. Physicians may consider differential diagnoses related to a wide variety of respiratory infections.", "Physicians may consider differential diagnoses related to a wide variety of respiratory infections. In order to relate these symptoms to 2019-nCoV, it is imperative that the identification of a potential exposure event epidemiologic risk factor within 14 days of symptom onset is made so that a more focused work-up for 2019-nCoV can be completed. Although the likelihood of coinfection of 2019-nCoV and another respiratory virus is thought to be low, a positive finding of another respiratory pathogen does not exclude the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV.", "Although the likelihood of coinfection of 2019-nCoV and another respiratory virus is thought to be low, a positive finding of another respiratory pathogen does not exclude the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. Many commercially available respiratory panels include \"coronavirus\" in the results, but neither a positive nor a negative finding on these panels should be used to include or exclude a diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. Supportive care with appropriate infection control is the mainstay of current CDC treatment guidelines for 2019-nCoV.", "Supportive care with appropriate infection control is the mainstay of current CDC treatment guidelines for 2019-nCoV. There are not yet any approved antiviral treatments for 2019-nCoV. Emergency Use Authorizations EUA for compassionate use cases may be forthcoming from the US federal government for normally unapproved treatments. Supportive treatment predominantly includes respiratory support, hydration, and antipyretics.", "Supportive treatment predominantly includes respiratory support, hydration, and antipyretics. General treatment for severe cases should focus on the preservation of vital organ function. In the future, antiviral medications may be available. If a secondary bacterial infection such as pneumonia develops, targeted antibiotics are indicated.", "If a secondary bacterial infection such as pneumonia develops, targeted antibiotics are indicated. Prevention of 2019-nCoV transmission, like any other infectious agent, involves minimizing risk of exposure. Vaccines are under accelerated development and may be useful in the future for post-exposure prophylaxis.", "Vaccines are under accelerated development and may be useful in the future for post-exposure prophylaxis. Healthcare personnel are at increased risk and should practice standard, droplet, and airborne precautions when encountering an infected person, a PUI, or any symptomatic close contacts. Healthcare workers handling specimens should also adhere to CDC guidelines and should not attempt to perform any virus isolation or characterization.", "Healthcare workers handling specimens should also adhere to CDC guidelines and should not attempt to perform any virus isolation or characterization. Fever screening has been implemented at numerous airports, including major international hubs within Asia and the US. The efficacy of this intervention is not well documented, however, as some infected persons may be afebrile and disease transmission might occur prior to symptom onset.", "The efficacy of this intervention is not well documented, however, as some infected persons may be afebrile and disease transmission might occur prior to symptom onset. 27 In addition, people can artificially lower their temperature readings, e.g., by applying ice to their foreheads. As outlined above, admission criteria for 2019-nCoV are similar to that of other patients.", "As outlined above, admission criteria for 2019-nCoV are similar to that of other patients. If patients do not meet medical criteria for hospitalization, they may be discharged home with isolation precautions and continued observation. EPs must notify local public health authorities so appropriate monitoring and community protective measures can be instituted.", "EPs must notify local public health authorities so appropriate monitoring and community protective measures can be instituted. The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool was initially developed for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies. 18 This novel tool for suspected 2019-nCoV patients Figure 1 provides frontline clinicians with a simple algorithm to manage an emerging disease.", "18 This novel tool for suspected 2019-nCoV patients Figure 1 provides frontline clinicians with a simple algorithm to manage an emerging disease. Identification of exposed patients with an epidemiologic risk factor within 14 days of symptom onset is a crucial first step. An automatic prompt in the electronic health record can be useful in assisting clinicians with early identification of patients at risk.", "An automatic prompt in the electronic health record can be useful in assisting clinicians with early identification of patients at risk. Case definitions promulgated by the WHO 24 and CDC 33 provide useful comprehensive definitions that have been incorporated into the 3I Tool. The 2019-nCoV Tool provides an accurate, summarized algorithm to immediately, and effectively manage suspected patients until additional resources can be consulted.", "The 2019-nCoV Tool provides an accurate, summarized algorithm to immediately, and effectively manage suspected patients until additional resources can be consulted. Patients who do not have an exposure risk or any symptoms may be triaged normally. However, before making patient contact, providers must first apply the Vital Sign Zero concept.", "However, before making patient contact, providers must first apply the Vital Sign Zero concept. 36 Vital Sign Zero is a preliminary, non-contact assessment i.e., performed prior to touching a patient to take traditional vital signs to first determine whether specific PPE is indicated before the examination commences. By taking the additional time to complete this assessment, risk of exposure and further transmission can be minimized.", "By taking the additional time to complete this assessment, risk of exposure and further transmission can be minimized. while in the treatment facility should be started and maintained to assist with the possibility of contact tracing. Following isolation, physicians should immediately inform the appropriate authorities.", "Following isolation, physicians should immediately inform the appropriate authorities. Patients who do not meet medical criteria for admission can be isolated at home during the evaluation phase. 37 Health department officials can help prevent transmission in isolated patients by providing in-home monitoring and implementing appropriate exposure-control measures.", "37 Health department officials can help prevent transmission in isolated patients by providing in-home monitoring and implementing appropriate exposure-control measures. Providers in the prehospital setting who have a high likelihood of encountering 2019-nCoV patients, such as those near international ports of entry, should adhere to established exposure control guidelines. 38 Along with appropriate PPE, providers should also carry thermometers to quantify any fever.", "38 Along with appropriate PPE, providers should also carry thermometers to quantify any fever. In the US, providers should contact the appropriate CDC quarantine station upon isolation of infected or suspected patients, especially those from Wuhan, China or other regions with widespread disease, who report symptoms in the last 14 days. As for other infectious diseases, assessing travel history is essential.", "As for other infectious diseases, assessing travel history is essential. Dispatch protocols have been instituted to facilitate identification of callers to 911 or the country-equivalent emergency number prior to prehospital personnel arrival. 39 In addition, CDC has promulgated EMS guidelines for prehospital PPE, transportation of PUIs, vehicle decontamination, and 911 Public Safety Answering Points PSAPs for 2019-nCoV.", "39 In addition, CDC has promulgated EMS guidelines for prehospital PPE, transportation of PUIs, vehicle decontamination, and 911 Public Safety Answering Points PSAPs for 2019-nCoV. 40 2019-nCoV is an emerging infectious disease with rapidly evolving features, the full scope of which will be defined over time. Prior outbreaks of coronaviruses can help inform needed actions in the short term to assist with both treatment of individual patients and prevention of global disease spread.", "Prior outbreaks of coronaviruses can help inform needed actions in the short term to assist with both treatment of individual patients and prevention of global disease spread. This adaptation of the Identify-Isolate-Inform Tool serves as a resource for healthcare workers who need to make clear, rapid assessments when confronted with potential patients. The concise nature of the 2019-nCoV 3I Tool allows for the rapid and effective management of a novel disease by healthcare providers." ]

[ "2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is an emerging infectious disease closely related to MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV that was first reported in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. As of January 2020, cases of 2019-nCoV are continuing to be reported in other Eastern Asian countries as well as in the United States, Europe, Australia, and numerous other countries. An unusually high volume of domestic and international travel corresponding to the beginning of the 2020 Chinese New Year complicated initial identification and containment of infected persons.", "An unusually high volume of domestic and international travel corresponding to the beginning of the 2020 Chinese New Year complicated initial identification and containment of infected persons. Due to the rapidly rising number of cases and reported deaths, all countries should be considered at risk of imported 2019-nCoV. Therefore, it is essential for prehospital, clinic, and emergency department personnel to be able to rapidly assess 2019-nCoV risk and take immediate actions if indicated.", "Therefore, it is essential for prehospital, clinic, and emergency department personnel to be able to rapidly assess 2019-nCoV risk and take immediate actions if indicated. The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool, originally conceived for the initial detection and management of Ebola virus and later adjusted for other infectious agents, can be adapted for any emerging infectious disease. This paper reports a modification of the 3I Tool for use in the initial detection and management of patients under investigation for 2019-nCoV.", "This paper reports a modification of the 3I Tool for use in the initial detection and management of patients under investigation for 2019-nCoV. After initial assessment for symptoms and epidemiological risk factors, including travel to affected areas and exposure to confirmed 2019-nCoV patients within 14 days, patients are classified in a risk-stratified system. Upon confirmation of a suspected 2019-nCoV case, affected persons must immediately be placed in airborne infection isolation and the appropriate public health agencies notified.", "Upon confirmation of a suspected 2019-nCoV case, affected persons must immediately be placed in airborne infection isolation and the appropriate public health agencies notified. This modified 3I Tool will assist emergency and primary care clinicians, as well as out-of-hospital providers, in effectively managing persons with suspected or confirmed 2019-nCoV. Text: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is a novel respiratory disease first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019.", "Text: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is a novel respiratory disease first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. 1 Chinese health officials were originally investigating a sudden increase in cases of pneumonia which were later determined to be linked to 2019-nCoV. While most cases originated within mainland China, the disease spread to neighboring countries including Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan, and later to the United States, Europe, and Australia.", "While most cases originated within mainland China, the disease spread to neighboring countries including Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan, and later to the United States, Europe, and Australia. A near real-time updated tracking website for cases and locations worldwide, along with reported deaths is available. 2 Chinese health authorities have sequenced 2019-nCoV and freely shared its genetic profile online.", "2 Chinese health authorities have sequenced 2019-nCoV and freely shared its genetic profile online. 3, 4 Additionally, on January 28, 2020, an Australian laboratory reported growing the virus from a patient sample. As of January 30, 2020, there have been at least 9,776 persons infected and 213 verified deaths.", "As of January 30, 2020, there have been at least 9,776 persons infected and 213 verified deaths. 2 These numbers are likely underestimates due to the limited information available regarding incubation time, transmissibility, and virus origin. The What was the research question?", "The What was the research question? Investigators adapted the \"Identify, Isolate, Inform\" 3I Tool for use in suspected cases of 2019-nCoV. What was the major finding of the study? A novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool is designed for frontline clinicians in the management of suspected patients.", "A novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool is designed for frontline clinicians in the management of suspected patients. This 2019-nCoV 3I adaptation will aid healthcare providers most likely to encounter the disease in the containment and effective treatment of patients. age distribution of these verified deaths is currently not available.", "age distribution of these verified deaths is currently not available. One preliminary, small-scale study of 41 patients in Wuhan China, reported 6 deaths 15% mortality with a median age of 49.0 years. 5 Additionally, transmission of the virus has reportedly occurred in healthcare facilities in Wuhan City, raising concerns of spread to healthcare workers, as was seen during prior outbreaks of the novel coronaviruses, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS .", "5 Additionally, transmission of the virus has reportedly occurred in healthcare facilities in Wuhan City, raising concerns of spread to healthcare workers, as was seen during prior outbreaks of the novel coronaviruses, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS . Due to the dynamic nature of the outbreak, exposure criteria may change depending on where new cases of 2019-nCoV are detected, the degree of transmissibility, and when additional information regarding the origin of the virus is discovered and reported. On January 15, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC confirmed the first known imported case of 2019-nCoV in the US state of Washington.", "On January 15, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC confirmed the first known imported case of 2019-nCoV in the US state of Washington. The patient had recently returned from Wuhan City, where he likely contracted the disease. Chicago health authorities reported a second US case on January 24, 2020.", "Chicago health authorities reported a second US case on January 24, 2020. This was quickly followed by additional imported cases reported in Orange and Los Angeles Counties, California on January 26, 2020. Additional suspected cases continue to be evaluated.", "Additional suspected cases continue to be evaluated. On January 30, 2020, the CDC reported the first local transmission in the US between members in a household. On the same day, the World Health Organization declared 2019-nCoV to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern PHEIC .", "On the same day, the World Health Organization declared 2019-nCoV to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern PHEIC . 6 On January 31, 2020, the US Department of Health and Human Services declared coronavirus a public health emergency. 7 Healthy individuals and those with mild illness may be asymptomatic, while others may have more pronounced symptoms of fever or lower respiratory illness.", "7 Healthy individuals and those with mild illness may be asymptomatic, while others may have more pronounced symptoms of fever or lower respiratory illness. Upon identification of a suspected patient, that individual should immediately be isolated with airborne precautions. Further workup and laboratory confirmation can then proceed.", "Further workup and laboratory confirmation can then proceed. Emergency physicians EPs , emergency medical services EMS personnel, and other healthcare workers who encounter patients with suspected 2019-nCoV infection must inform the appropriate authorities, including but not limited to hospital infection control and local or state public health agencies. Healthcare workers must follow on-going developments related to the outbreak, especially new information concerning detection and management.", "Healthcare workers must follow on-going developments related to the outbreak, especially new information concerning detection and management. 8, 9 The 3I Tool outlined in this paper is consistent with current US CDC guidelines and can be applied in a variety of settings such as those in emergency departments, urgent-care clinics, physicians' offices, and prehospital settings. This paper will first briefly review 2019-nCoV and then present the novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool as modified from its initial conception for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies.", "This paper will first briefly review 2019-nCoV and then present the novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool as modified from its initial conception for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies. 18 Coronavirus 2019-nCoV infection commonly presents with signs and symptoms of pneumonia or as a nonspecific lower respiratory illness, with coughing or difficulty breathing accompanied by fever. 5, 19, 20 Fever and cough constitute the most common presentations.", "5, 19, 20 Fever and cough constitute the most common presentations. However, patients may have other respiratory symptoms, sore throat, nasal congestion, malaise, myalgia, and headache. Bilateral infiltrates may be seen on chest X-ray. Severe cases may present with sepsis and even shock.", "Severe cases may present with sepsis and even shock. Conversely, some patients may present as only mildly ill or asymptomatic altogether. 21 To date, patients with underlying medical conditions and the elderly are more likely to become severely ill, require hospitalization, and ultimately die.", "21 To date, patients with underlying medical conditions and the elderly are more likely to become severely ill, require hospitalization, and ultimately die. 22 Early predictions for incubation time are between 2 and 14 days, based on data from similar coronaviruses. The 14-day criterion for epidemiological risk assumes the longest estimated incubation time.", "The 14-day criterion for epidemiological risk assumes the longest estimated incubation time. 23 In addition, the World Health Organization WHO has created its own interim case definition. 24 By definition, the main features of a novel virus, for example, how it is transmitted, will not be immediately known.", "24 By definition, the main features of a novel virus, for example, how it is transmitted, will not be immediately known. However, as with the development of any 3I Tool, it is essential to understand specific characteristics of the disease. In the case of a novel virus such as 2019-CoV, this is challenging since information is rapidly evolving and the science is not yet fully understood.", "In the case of a novel virus such as 2019-CoV, this is challenging since information is rapidly evolving and the science is not yet fully understood. It is possible that the virus will undergo mutations over time that could substantially change its The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus Koenig et al. features.", "features. Nevertheless, an appreciation of the key concepts that drive evidence-based management is beneficial Table 1 . Management guidance will likely change over time. With the initial discovery of a new potential public health threat, it will likely be unclear how patients become sick.", "With the initial discovery of a new potential public health threat, it will likely be unclear how patients become sick. For example, rather than a contagion, there could be a contaminant or a toxin responsible for signs and symptoms. In this case, the possibility of an environmental toxin in the Wuhan Market was a consideration early on when limited to no human-tohuman transmission was reported.", "In this case, the possibility of an environmental toxin in the Wuhan Market was a consideration early on when limited to no human-tohuman transmission was reported. The mode of transmission has implications for the types of personal protective equipment PPE needed to protect healthcare providers in the prehospital, clinic, and hospital settings. 25 In addition, patients may need decontamination after exposure to certain toxins.", "25 In addition, patients may need decontamination after exposure to certain toxins. 26 Another important consideration for application of the 3I Tool is whether the disease is contagious prior to symptom onset like measles or only after symptoms develop like Ebola . A January 30, 2020 letter to the New England Journal of Medicine describes a purported confirmed instance of transmission from an asymptomatic individual.", "A January 30, 2020 letter to the New England Journal of Medicine describes a purported confirmed instance of transmission from an asymptomatic individual. Researchers state that, before symptom onset, the primary case infected two individuals, one of which infected two additional colleagues. 27 Subsequent investigation suggested that the source patient did have mild symptoms and had taken an antipyretic, calling this reported asymptomatic transmission into question.", "27 Subsequent investigation suggested that the source patient did have mild symptoms and had taken an antipyretic, calling this reported asymptomatic transmission into question. While quarantine may not be feasible and can have unintended consequences, 28, 29, 30 it is a public health tool that can be considered in cases when disease is transmissible before symptom onset. 30 Conversely, if a disease is known not to be transmissible prior to symptom onset, asymptomatic exposed patients must be monitored, but do not require quarantine or isolation unless they develop symptoms.", "30 Conversely, if a disease is known not to be transmissible prior to symptom onset, asymptomatic exposed patients must be monitored, but do not require quarantine or isolation unless they develop symptoms. Initially, it may be unclear whether an infectious agent occurred naturally or was deliberately or accidentally released. In this case, a BSL-4 laboratory studying coronaviruses was located approximately 32 kilometers away from the market where initial exposures were felt to occur.", "In this case, a BSL-4 laboratory studying coronaviruses was located approximately 32 kilometers away from the market where initial exposures were felt to occur. 31 Recall that in 2001, the anthrax letter attacks were initially thought to be naturally occurring. Once determined to be bioterrorism, management of the event was similar to that for a chemical exposure with a sudden impact, defined scene, and need for a rapid response and decontamination on site.", "Once determined to be bioterrorism, management of the event was similar to that for a chemical exposure with a sudden impact, defined scene, and need for a rapid response and decontamination on site. This differed from the WHO's modeling predicting an aerosolized release that would result in an incubation period with 100,000 or more persons exposed rather than the 22 people who contracted anthrax in 2001. 32 By understanding the key features of a novel disease, healthcare workers can take evidence-based measures to protect themselves, optimize individual patient management, and prevent further disease spread.", "32 By understanding the key features of a novel disease, healthcare workers can take evidence-based measures to protect themselves, optimize individual patient management, and prevent further disease spread. It is currently unclear how 2019-nCoV is spread, but it is suspected to be transmitted through contact with infected respiratory secretions, like other known coronaviruses. There are instances of sustained human-to-human transmission across generations of cases, especially near the epicenter in Wuhan City.", "There are instances of sustained human-to-human transmission across generations of cases, especially near the epicenter in Wuhan City. 21 Current evidence suggests that close contact with an infected person is a major factor in disease transmission. CDC defines \"close contact\" 33 as being in or within two meters of an area with a confirmed patient or being directly exposed to infectious secretions without appropriate PPE.", "CDC defines \"close contact\" 33 as being in or within two meters of an area with a confirmed patient or being directly exposed to infectious secretions without appropriate PPE. Healthcare facilities in China have reported spread from person to person. In addition, some mildly ill or potentially even asymptomatic patients may have a higher chance of spreading the disease to others as they may be less likely to seek medical care.", "In addition, some mildly ill or potentially even asymptomatic patients may have a higher chance of spreading the disease to others as they may be less likely to seek medical care. 34 The possibility that patients may be infectious prior to symptom onset further compounds the difficulty of containing the virus and effectively preventing transmission. The current majority of 2019-nCoV cases have been within China and its bordering countries.", "The current majority of 2019-nCoV cases have been within China and its bordering countries. 2 Persons with recent travel within 14 days to Wuhan City or another region with widespread disease, or exposure to a patient under investigation, are considered to have an epidemiologic risk factor and should be assessed for signs and symptoms of a viral illness such as fever and respiratory symptoms. Coronavirus is a zoonotic virus The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus that is transmitted to humans via contact with infected animals.", "Coronavirus is a zoonotic virus The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus that is transmitted to humans via contact with infected animals. Preliminary reports suggest the disease may have originated in a seafood and live animal market in Wuhan City, but it is still unknown how or whether such transmission occurred. Clinicians working with local public health departments must arrange to have specimens from patients under investigation PUIs sent to the CDC laboratory.", "Clinicians working with local public health departments must arrange to have specimens from patients under investigation PUIs sent to the CDC laboratory. At this time, the CDC has the only laboratory that can definitively test for 2019-nCoV, though laboratory testing capacity is being rapidly expanded. Polymerase chain reaction PCR assays conducted on samples from a patient's upper and lower respiratory tracts will be used to confirm potential cases.", "Polymerase chain reaction PCR assays conducted on samples from a patient's upper and lower respiratory tracts will be used to confirm potential cases. In addition, serum antibody titers can be analyzed for confirmation of infection or evidence of immunity. Up-to-date information about the needed specimens and handling requirements to test for 2019-nCoV are available on the CDC website.", "Up-to-date information about the needed specimens and handling requirements to test for 2019-nCoV are available on the CDC website. 35 Like other related coronaviruses, patients with 2019-nCoV frequently present with non-specific symptoms resembling that of influenza. Physicians may consider differential diagnoses related to a wide variety of respiratory infections.", "Physicians may consider differential diagnoses related to a wide variety of respiratory infections. In order to relate these symptoms to 2019-nCoV, it is imperative that the identification of a potential exposure event epidemiologic risk factor within 14 days of symptom onset is made so that a more focused work-up for 2019-nCoV can be completed. Although the likelihood of coinfection of 2019-nCoV and another respiratory virus is thought to be low, a positive finding of another respiratory pathogen does not exclude the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV.", "Although the likelihood of coinfection of 2019-nCoV and another respiratory virus is thought to be low, a positive finding of another respiratory pathogen does not exclude the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. Many commercially available respiratory panels include \"coronavirus\" in the results, but neither a positive nor a negative finding on these panels should be used to include or exclude a diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. Supportive care with appropriate infection control is the mainstay of current CDC treatment guidelines for 2019-nCoV.", "Supportive care with appropriate infection control is the mainstay of current CDC treatment guidelines for 2019-nCoV. There are not yet any approved antiviral treatments for 2019-nCoV. Emergency Use Authorizations EUA for compassionate use cases may be forthcoming from the US federal government for normally unapproved treatments. Supportive treatment predominantly includes respiratory support, hydration, and antipyretics.", "Supportive treatment predominantly includes respiratory support, hydration, and antipyretics. General treatment for severe cases should focus on the preservation of vital organ function. In the future, antiviral medications may be available. If a secondary bacterial infection such as pneumonia develops, targeted antibiotics are indicated.", "If a secondary bacterial infection such as pneumonia develops, targeted antibiotics are indicated. Prevention of 2019-nCoV transmission, like any other infectious agent, involves minimizing risk of exposure. Vaccines are under accelerated development and may be useful in the future for post-exposure prophylaxis.", "Vaccines are under accelerated development and may be useful in the future for post-exposure prophylaxis. Healthcare personnel are at increased risk and should practice standard, droplet, and airborne precautions when encountering an infected person, a PUI, or any symptomatic close contacts. Healthcare workers handling specimens should also adhere to CDC guidelines and should not attempt to perform any virus isolation or characterization.", "Healthcare workers handling specimens should also adhere to CDC guidelines and should not attempt to perform any virus isolation or characterization. Fever screening has been implemented at numerous airports, including major international hubs within Asia and the US. The efficacy of this intervention is not well documented, however, as some infected persons may be afebrile and disease transmission might occur prior to symptom onset.", "The efficacy of this intervention is not well documented, however, as some infected persons may be afebrile and disease transmission might occur prior to symptom onset. 27 In addition, people can artificially lower their temperature readings, e.g., by applying ice to their foreheads. As outlined above, admission criteria for 2019-nCoV are similar to that of other patients.", "As outlined above, admission criteria for 2019-nCoV are similar to that of other patients. If patients do not meet medical criteria for hospitalization, they may be discharged home with isolation precautions and continued observation. EPs must notify local public health authorities so appropriate monitoring and community protective measures can be instituted.", "EPs must notify local public health authorities so appropriate monitoring and community protective measures can be instituted. The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool was initially developed for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies. 18 This novel tool for suspected 2019-nCoV patients Figure 1 provides frontline clinicians with a simple algorithm to manage an emerging disease.", "18 This novel tool for suspected 2019-nCoV patients Figure 1 provides frontline clinicians with a simple algorithm to manage an emerging disease. Identification of exposed patients with an epidemiologic risk factor within 14 days of symptom onset is a crucial first step. An automatic prompt in the electronic health record can be useful in assisting clinicians with early identification of patients at risk.", "An automatic prompt in the electronic health record can be useful in assisting clinicians with early identification of patients at risk. Case definitions promulgated by the WHO 24 and CDC 33 provide useful comprehensive definitions that have been incorporated into the 3I Tool. The 2019-nCoV Tool provides an accurate, summarized algorithm to immediately, and effectively manage suspected patients until additional resources can be consulted.", "The 2019-nCoV Tool provides an accurate, summarized algorithm to immediately, and effectively manage suspected patients until additional resources can be consulted. Patients who do not have an exposure risk or any symptoms may be triaged normally. However, before making patient contact, providers must first apply the Vital Sign Zero concept.", "However, before making patient contact, providers must first apply the Vital Sign Zero concept. 36 Vital Sign Zero is a preliminary, non-contact assessment i.e., performed prior to touching a patient to take traditional vital signs to first determine whether specific PPE is indicated before the examination commences. By taking the additional time to complete this assessment, risk of exposure and further transmission can be minimized.", "By taking the additional time to complete this assessment, risk of exposure and further transmission can be minimized. while in the treatment facility should be started and maintained to assist with the possibility of contact tracing. Following isolation, physicians should immediately inform the appropriate authorities.", "Following isolation, physicians should immediately inform the appropriate authorities. Patients who do not meet medical criteria for admission can be isolated at home during the evaluation phase. 37 Health department officials can help prevent transmission in isolated patients by providing in-home monitoring and implementing appropriate exposure-control measures.", "37 Health department officials can help prevent transmission in isolated patients by providing in-home monitoring and implementing appropriate exposure-control measures. Providers in the prehospital setting who have a high likelihood of encountering 2019-nCoV patients, such as those near international ports of entry, should adhere to established exposure control guidelines. 38 Along with appropriate PPE, providers should also carry thermometers to quantify any fever.", "38 Along with appropriate PPE, providers should also carry thermometers to quantify any fever. In the US, providers should contact the appropriate CDC quarantine station upon isolation of infected or suspected patients, especially those from Wuhan, China or other regions with widespread disease, who report symptoms in the last 14 days. As for other infectious diseases, assessing travel history is essential.", "As for other infectious diseases, assessing travel history is essential. Dispatch protocols have been instituted to facilitate identification of callers to 911 or the country-equivalent emergency number prior to prehospital personnel arrival. 39 In addition, CDC has promulgated EMS guidelines for prehospital PPE, transportation of PUIs, vehicle decontamination, and 911 Public Safety Answering Points PSAPs for 2019-nCoV.", "39 In addition, CDC has promulgated EMS guidelines for prehospital PPE, transportation of PUIs, vehicle decontamination, and 911 Public Safety Answering Points PSAPs for 2019-nCoV. 40 2019-nCoV is an emerging infectious disease with rapidly evolving features, the full scope of which will be defined over time. Prior outbreaks of coronaviruses can help inform needed actions in the short term to assist with both treatment of individual patients and prevention of global disease spread.", "Prior outbreaks of coronaviruses can help inform needed actions in the short term to assist with both treatment of individual patients and prevention of global disease spread. This adaptation of the Identify-Isolate-Inform Tool serves as a resource for healthcare workers who need to make clear, rapid assessments when confronted with potential patients. The concise nature of the 2019-nCoV 3I Tool allows for the rapid and effective management of a novel disease by healthcare providers." ]

[ "2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is an emerging infectious disease closely related to MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV that was first reported in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. As of January 2020, cases of 2019-nCoV are continuing to be reported in other Eastern Asian countries as well as in the United States, Europe, Australia, and numerous other countries. An unusually high volume of domestic and international travel corresponding to the beginning of the 2020 Chinese New Year complicated initial identification and containment of infected persons.", "An unusually high volume of domestic and international travel corresponding to the beginning of the 2020 Chinese New Year complicated initial identification and containment of infected persons. Due to the rapidly rising number of cases and reported deaths, all countries should be considered at risk of imported 2019-nCoV. Therefore, it is essential for prehospital, clinic, and emergency department personnel to be able to rapidly assess 2019-nCoV risk and take immediate actions if indicated.", "Therefore, it is essential for prehospital, clinic, and emergency department personnel to be able to rapidly assess 2019-nCoV risk and take immediate actions if indicated. The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool, originally conceived for the initial detection and management of Ebola virus and later adjusted for other infectious agents, can be adapted for any emerging infectious disease. This paper reports a modification of the 3I Tool for use in the initial detection and management of patients under investigation for 2019-nCoV.", "This paper reports a modification of the 3I Tool for use in the initial detection and management of patients under investigation for 2019-nCoV. After initial assessment for symptoms and epidemiological risk factors, including travel to affected areas and exposure to confirmed 2019-nCoV patients within 14 days, patients are classified in a risk-stratified system. Upon confirmation of a suspected 2019-nCoV case, affected persons must immediately be placed in airborne infection isolation and the appropriate public health agencies notified.", "Upon confirmation of a suspected 2019-nCoV case, affected persons must immediately be placed in airborne infection isolation and the appropriate public health agencies notified. This modified 3I Tool will assist emergency and primary care clinicians, as well as out-of-hospital providers, in effectively managing persons with suspected or confirmed 2019-nCoV. Text: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is a novel respiratory disease first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019.", "Text: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is a novel respiratory disease first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. 1 Chinese health officials were originally investigating a sudden increase in cases of pneumonia which were later determined to be linked to 2019-nCoV. While most cases originated within mainland China, the disease spread to neighboring countries including Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan, and later to the United States, Europe, and Australia.", "While most cases originated within mainland China, the disease spread to neighboring countries including Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan, and later to the United States, Europe, and Australia. A near real-time updated tracking website for cases and locations worldwide, along with reported deaths is available. 2 Chinese health authorities have sequenced 2019-nCoV and freely shared its genetic profile online.", "2 Chinese health authorities have sequenced 2019-nCoV and freely shared its genetic profile online. 3, 4 Additionally, on January 28, 2020, an Australian laboratory reported growing the virus from a patient sample. As of January 30, 2020, there have been at least 9,776 persons infected and 213 verified deaths.", "As of January 30, 2020, there have been at least 9,776 persons infected and 213 verified deaths. 2 These numbers are likely underestimates due to the limited information available regarding incubation time, transmissibility, and virus origin. The What was the research question?", "The What was the research question? Investigators adapted the \"Identify, Isolate, Inform\" 3I Tool for use in suspected cases of 2019-nCoV. What was the major finding of the study? A novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool is designed for frontline clinicians in the management of suspected patients.", "A novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool is designed for frontline clinicians in the management of suspected patients. This 2019-nCoV 3I adaptation will aid healthcare providers most likely to encounter the disease in the containment and effective treatment of patients. age distribution of these verified deaths is currently not available.", "age distribution of these verified deaths is currently not available. One preliminary, small-scale study of 41 patients in Wuhan China, reported 6 deaths 15% mortality with a median age of 49.0 years. 5 Additionally, transmission of the virus has reportedly occurred in healthcare facilities in Wuhan City, raising concerns of spread to healthcare workers, as was seen during prior outbreaks of the novel coronaviruses, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS .", "5 Additionally, transmission of the virus has reportedly occurred in healthcare facilities in Wuhan City, raising concerns of spread to healthcare workers, as was seen during prior outbreaks of the novel coronaviruses, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS . Due to the dynamic nature of the outbreak, exposure criteria may change depending on where new cases of 2019-nCoV are detected, the degree of transmissibility, and when additional information regarding the origin of the virus is discovered and reported. On January 15, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC confirmed the first known imported case of 2019-nCoV in the US state of Washington.", "On January 15, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC confirmed the first known imported case of 2019-nCoV in the US state of Washington. The patient had recently returned from Wuhan City, where he likely contracted the disease. Chicago health authorities reported a second US case on January 24, 2020.", "Chicago health authorities reported a second US case on January 24, 2020. This was quickly followed by additional imported cases reported in Orange and Los Angeles Counties, California on January 26, 2020. Additional suspected cases continue to be evaluated.", "Additional suspected cases continue to be evaluated. On January 30, 2020, the CDC reported the first local transmission in the US between members in a household. On the same day, the World Health Organization declared 2019-nCoV to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern PHEIC .", "On the same day, the World Health Organization declared 2019-nCoV to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern PHEIC . 6 On January 31, 2020, the US Department of Health and Human Services declared coronavirus a public health emergency. 7 Healthy individuals and those with mild illness may be asymptomatic, while others may have more pronounced symptoms of fever or lower respiratory illness.", "7 Healthy individuals and those with mild illness may be asymptomatic, while others may have more pronounced symptoms of fever or lower respiratory illness. Upon identification of a suspected patient, that individual should immediately be isolated with airborne precautions. Further workup and laboratory confirmation can then proceed.", "Further workup and laboratory confirmation can then proceed. Emergency physicians EPs , emergency medical services EMS personnel, and other healthcare workers who encounter patients with suspected 2019-nCoV infection must inform the appropriate authorities, including but not limited to hospital infection control and local or state public health agencies. Healthcare workers must follow on-going developments related to the outbreak, especially new information concerning detection and management.", "Healthcare workers must follow on-going developments related to the outbreak, especially new information concerning detection and management. 8, 9 The 3I Tool outlined in this paper is consistent with current US CDC guidelines and can be applied in a variety of settings such as those in emergency departments, urgent-care clinics, physicians' offices, and prehospital settings. This paper will first briefly review 2019-nCoV and then present the novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool as modified from its initial conception for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies.", "This paper will first briefly review 2019-nCoV and then present the novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool as modified from its initial conception for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies. 18 Coronavirus 2019-nCoV infection commonly presents with signs and symptoms of pneumonia or as a nonspecific lower respiratory illness, with coughing or difficulty breathing accompanied by fever. 5, 19, 20 Fever and cough constitute the most common presentations.", "5, 19, 20 Fever and cough constitute the most common presentations. However, patients may have other respiratory symptoms, sore throat, nasal congestion, malaise, myalgia, and headache. Bilateral infiltrates may be seen on chest X-ray. Severe cases may present with sepsis and even shock.", "Severe cases may present with sepsis and even shock. Conversely, some patients may present as only mildly ill or asymptomatic altogether. 21 To date, patients with underlying medical conditions and the elderly are more likely to become severely ill, require hospitalization, and ultimately die.", "21 To date, patients with underlying medical conditions and the elderly are more likely to become severely ill, require hospitalization, and ultimately die. 22 Early predictions for incubation time are between 2 and 14 days, based on data from similar coronaviruses. The 14-day criterion for epidemiological risk assumes the longest estimated incubation time.", "The 14-day criterion for epidemiological risk assumes the longest estimated incubation time. 23 In addition, the World Health Organization WHO has created its own interim case definition. 24 By definition, the main features of a novel virus, for example, how it is transmitted, will not be immediately known.", "24 By definition, the main features of a novel virus, for example, how it is transmitted, will not be immediately known. However, as with the development of any 3I Tool, it is essential to understand specific characteristics of the disease. In the case of a novel virus such as 2019-CoV, this is challenging since information is rapidly evolving and the science is not yet fully understood.", "In the case of a novel virus such as 2019-CoV, this is challenging since information is rapidly evolving and the science is not yet fully understood. It is possible that the virus will undergo mutations over time that could substantially change its The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus Koenig et al. features.", "features. Nevertheless, an appreciation of the key concepts that drive evidence-based management is beneficial Table 1 . Management guidance will likely change over time. With the initial discovery of a new potential public health threat, it will likely be unclear how patients become sick.", "With the initial discovery of a new potential public health threat, it will likely be unclear how patients become sick. For example, rather than a contagion, there could be a contaminant or a toxin responsible for signs and symptoms. In this case, the possibility of an environmental toxin in the Wuhan Market was a consideration early on when limited to no human-tohuman transmission was reported.", "In this case, the possibility of an environmental toxin in the Wuhan Market was a consideration early on when limited to no human-tohuman transmission was reported. The mode of transmission has implications for the types of personal protective equipment PPE needed to protect healthcare providers in the prehospital, clinic, and hospital settings. 25 In addition, patients may need decontamination after exposure to certain toxins.", "25 In addition, patients may need decontamination after exposure to certain toxins. 26 Another important consideration for application of the 3I Tool is whether the disease is contagious prior to symptom onset like measles or only after symptoms develop like Ebola . A January 30, 2020 letter to the New England Journal of Medicine describes a purported confirmed instance of transmission from an asymptomatic individual.", "A January 30, 2020 letter to the New England Journal of Medicine describes a purported confirmed instance of transmission from an asymptomatic individual. Researchers state that, before symptom onset, the primary case infected two individuals, one of which infected two additional colleagues. 27 Subsequent investigation suggested that the source patient did have mild symptoms and had taken an antipyretic, calling this reported asymptomatic transmission into question.", "27 Subsequent investigation suggested that the source patient did have mild symptoms and had taken an antipyretic, calling this reported asymptomatic transmission into question. While quarantine may not be feasible and can have unintended consequences, 28, 29, 30 it is a public health tool that can be considered in cases when disease is transmissible before symptom onset. 30 Conversely, if a disease is known not to be transmissible prior to symptom onset, asymptomatic exposed patients must be monitored, but do not require quarantine or isolation unless they develop symptoms.", "30 Conversely, if a disease is known not to be transmissible prior to symptom onset, asymptomatic exposed patients must be monitored, but do not require quarantine or isolation unless they develop symptoms. Initially, it may be unclear whether an infectious agent occurred naturally or was deliberately or accidentally released. In this case, a BSL-4 laboratory studying coronaviruses was located approximately 32 kilometers away from the market where initial exposures were felt to occur.", "In this case, a BSL-4 laboratory studying coronaviruses was located approximately 32 kilometers away from the market where initial exposures were felt to occur. 31 Recall that in 2001, the anthrax letter attacks were initially thought to be naturally occurring. Once determined to be bioterrorism, management of the event was similar to that for a chemical exposure with a sudden impact, defined scene, and need for a rapid response and decontamination on site.", "Once determined to be bioterrorism, management of the event was similar to that for a chemical exposure with a sudden impact, defined scene, and need for a rapid response and decontamination on site. This differed from the WHO's modeling predicting an aerosolized release that would result in an incubation period with 100,000 or more persons exposed rather than the 22 people who contracted anthrax in 2001. 32 By understanding the key features of a novel disease, healthcare workers can take evidence-based measures to protect themselves, optimize individual patient management, and prevent further disease spread.", "32 By understanding the key features of a novel disease, healthcare workers can take evidence-based measures to protect themselves, optimize individual patient management, and prevent further disease spread. It is currently unclear how 2019-nCoV is spread, but it is suspected to be transmitted through contact with infected respiratory secretions, like other known coronaviruses. There are instances of sustained human-to-human transmission across generations of cases, especially near the epicenter in Wuhan City.", "There are instances of sustained human-to-human transmission across generations of cases, especially near the epicenter in Wuhan City. 21 Current evidence suggests that close contact with an infected person is a major factor in disease transmission. CDC defines \"close contact\" 33 as being in or within two meters of an area with a confirmed patient or being directly exposed to infectious secretions without appropriate PPE.", "CDC defines \"close contact\" 33 as being in or within two meters of an area with a confirmed patient or being directly exposed to infectious secretions without appropriate PPE. Healthcare facilities in China have reported spread from person to person. In addition, some mildly ill or potentially even asymptomatic patients may have a higher chance of spreading the disease to others as they may be less likely to seek medical care.", "In addition, some mildly ill or potentially even asymptomatic patients may have a higher chance of spreading the disease to others as they may be less likely to seek medical care. 34 The possibility that patients may be infectious prior to symptom onset further compounds the difficulty of containing the virus and effectively preventing transmission. The current majority of 2019-nCoV cases have been within China and its bordering countries.", "The current majority of 2019-nCoV cases have been within China and its bordering countries. 2 Persons with recent travel within 14 days to Wuhan City or another region with widespread disease, or exposure to a patient under investigation, are considered to have an epidemiologic risk factor and should be assessed for signs and symptoms of a viral illness such as fever and respiratory symptoms. Coronavirus is a zoonotic virus The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus that is transmitted to humans via contact with infected animals.", "Coronavirus is a zoonotic virus The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus that is transmitted to humans via contact with infected animals. Preliminary reports suggest the disease may have originated in a seafood and live animal market in Wuhan City, but it is still unknown how or whether such transmission occurred. Clinicians working with local public health departments must arrange to have specimens from patients under investigation PUIs sent to the CDC laboratory.", "Clinicians working with local public health departments must arrange to have specimens from patients under investigation PUIs sent to the CDC laboratory. At this time, the CDC has the only laboratory that can definitively test for 2019-nCoV, though laboratory testing capacity is being rapidly expanded. Polymerase chain reaction PCR assays conducted on samples from a patient's upper and lower respiratory tracts will be used to confirm potential cases.", "Polymerase chain reaction PCR assays conducted on samples from a patient's upper and lower respiratory tracts will be used to confirm potential cases. In addition, serum antibody titers can be analyzed for confirmation of infection or evidence of immunity. Up-to-date information about the needed specimens and handling requirements to test for 2019-nCoV are available on the CDC website.", "Up-to-date information about the needed specimens and handling requirements to test for 2019-nCoV are available on the CDC website. 35 Like other related coronaviruses, patients with 2019-nCoV frequently present with non-specific symptoms resembling that of influenza. Physicians may consider differential diagnoses related to a wide variety of respiratory infections.", "Physicians may consider differential diagnoses related to a wide variety of respiratory infections. In order to relate these symptoms to 2019-nCoV, it is imperative that the identification of a potential exposure event epidemiologic risk factor within 14 days of symptom onset is made so that a more focused work-up for 2019-nCoV can be completed. Although the likelihood of coinfection of 2019-nCoV and another respiratory virus is thought to be low, a positive finding of another respiratory pathogen does not exclude the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV.", "Although the likelihood of coinfection of 2019-nCoV and another respiratory virus is thought to be low, a positive finding of another respiratory pathogen does not exclude the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. Many commercially available respiratory panels include \"coronavirus\" in the results, but neither a positive nor a negative finding on these panels should be used to include or exclude a diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. Supportive care with appropriate infection control is the mainstay of current CDC treatment guidelines for 2019-nCoV.", "Supportive care with appropriate infection control is the mainstay of current CDC treatment guidelines for 2019-nCoV. There are not yet any approved antiviral treatments for 2019-nCoV. Emergency Use Authorizations EUA for compassionate use cases may be forthcoming from the US federal government for normally unapproved treatments. Supportive treatment predominantly includes respiratory support, hydration, and antipyretics.", "Supportive treatment predominantly includes respiratory support, hydration, and antipyretics. General treatment for severe cases should focus on the preservation of vital organ function. In the future, antiviral medications may be available. If a secondary bacterial infection such as pneumonia develops, targeted antibiotics are indicated.", "If a secondary bacterial infection such as pneumonia develops, targeted antibiotics are indicated. Prevention of 2019-nCoV transmission, like any other infectious agent, involves minimizing risk of exposure. Vaccines are under accelerated development and may be useful in the future for post-exposure prophylaxis.", "Vaccines are under accelerated development and may be useful in the future for post-exposure prophylaxis. Healthcare personnel are at increased risk and should practice standard, droplet, and airborne precautions when encountering an infected person, a PUI, or any symptomatic close contacts. Healthcare workers handling specimens should also adhere to CDC guidelines and should not attempt to perform any virus isolation or characterization.", "Healthcare workers handling specimens should also adhere to CDC guidelines and should not attempt to perform any virus isolation or characterization. Fever screening has been implemented at numerous airports, including major international hubs within Asia and the US. The efficacy of this intervention is not well documented, however, as some infected persons may be afebrile and disease transmission might occur prior to symptom onset.", "The efficacy of this intervention is not well documented, however, as some infected persons may be afebrile and disease transmission might occur prior to symptom onset. 27 In addition, people can artificially lower their temperature readings, e.g., by applying ice to their foreheads. As outlined above, admission criteria for 2019-nCoV are similar to that of other patients.", "As outlined above, admission criteria for 2019-nCoV are similar to that of other patients. If patients do not meet medical criteria for hospitalization, they may be discharged home with isolation precautions and continued observation. EPs must notify local public health authorities so appropriate monitoring and community protective measures can be instituted.", "EPs must notify local public health authorities so appropriate monitoring and community protective measures can be instituted. The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool was initially developed for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies. 18 This novel tool for suspected 2019-nCoV patients Figure 1 provides frontline clinicians with a simple algorithm to manage an emerging disease.", "18 This novel tool for suspected 2019-nCoV patients Figure 1 provides frontline clinicians with a simple algorithm to manage an emerging disease. Identification of exposed patients with an epidemiologic risk factor within 14 days of symptom onset is a crucial first step. An automatic prompt in the electronic health record can be useful in assisting clinicians with early identification of patients at risk.", "An automatic prompt in the electronic health record can be useful in assisting clinicians with early identification of patients at risk. Case definitions promulgated by the WHO 24 and CDC 33 provide useful comprehensive definitions that have been incorporated into the 3I Tool. The 2019-nCoV Tool provides an accurate, summarized algorithm to immediately, and effectively manage suspected patients until additional resources can be consulted.", "The 2019-nCoV Tool provides an accurate, summarized algorithm to immediately, and effectively manage suspected patients until additional resources can be consulted. Patients who do not have an exposure risk or any symptoms may be triaged normally. However, before making patient contact, providers must first apply the Vital Sign Zero concept.", "However, before making patient contact, providers must first apply the Vital Sign Zero concept. 36 Vital Sign Zero is a preliminary, non-contact assessment i.e., performed prior to touching a patient to take traditional vital signs to first determine whether specific PPE is indicated before the examination commences. By taking the additional time to complete this assessment, risk of exposure and further transmission can be minimized.", "By taking the additional time to complete this assessment, risk of exposure and further transmission can be minimized. while in the treatment facility should be started and maintained to assist with the possibility of contact tracing. Following isolation, physicians should immediately inform the appropriate authorities.", "Following isolation, physicians should immediately inform the appropriate authorities. Patients who do not meet medical criteria for admission can be isolated at home during the evaluation phase. 37 Health department officials can help prevent transmission in isolated patients by providing in-home monitoring and implementing appropriate exposure-control measures.", "37 Health department officials can help prevent transmission in isolated patients by providing in-home monitoring and implementing appropriate exposure-control measures. Providers in the prehospital setting who have a high likelihood of encountering 2019-nCoV patients, such as those near international ports of entry, should adhere to established exposure control guidelines. 38 Along with appropriate PPE, providers should also carry thermometers to quantify any fever.", "38 Along with appropriate PPE, providers should also carry thermometers to quantify any fever. In the US, providers should contact the appropriate CDC quarantine station upon isolation of infected or suspected patients, especially those from Wuhan, China or other regions with widespread disease, who report symptoms in the last 14 days. As for other infectious diseases, assessing travel history is essential.", "As for other infectious diseases, assessing travel history is essential. Dispatch protocols have been instituted to facilitate identification of callers to 911 or the country-equivalent emergency number prior to prehospital personnel arrival. 39 In addition, CDC has promulgated EMS guidelines for prehospital PPE, transportation of PUIs, vehicle decontamination, and 911 Public Safety Answering Points PSAPs for 2019-nCoV.", "39 In addition, CDC has promulgated EMS guidelines for prehospital PPE, transportation of PUIs, vehicle decontamination, and 911 Public Safety Answering Points PSAPs for 2019-nCoV. 40 2019-nCoV is an emerging infectious disease with rapidly evolving features, the full scope of which will be defined over time. Prior outbreaks of coronaviruses can help inform needed actions in the short term to assist with both treatment of individual patients and prevention of global disease spread.", "Prior outbreaks of coronaviruses can help inform needed actions in the short term to assist with both treatment of individual patients and prevention of global disease spread. This adaptation of the Identify-Isolate-Inform Tool serves as a resource for healthcare workers who need to make clear, rapid assessments when confronted with potential patients. The concise nature of the 2019-nCoV 3I Tool allows for the rapid and effective management of a novel disease by healthcare providers." ]

[ "2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is an emerging infectious disease closely related to MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV that was first reported in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. As of January 2020, cases of 2019-nCoV are continuing to be reported in other Eastern Asian countries as well as in the United States, Europe, Australia, and numerous other countries. An unusually high volume of domestic and international travel corresponding to the beginning of the 2020 Chinese New Year complicated initial identification and containment of infected persons.", "An unusually high volume of domestic and international travel corresponding to the beginning of the 2020 Chinese New Year complicated initial identification and containment of infected persons. Due to the rapidly rising number of cases and reported deaths, all countries should be considered at risk of imported 2019-nCoV. Therefore, it is essential for prehospital, clinic, and emergency department personnel to be able to rapidly assess 2019-nCoV risk and take immediate actions if indicated.", "Therefore, it is essential for prehospital, clinic, and emergency department personnel to be able to rapidly assess 2019-nCoV risk and take immediate actions if indicated. The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool, originally conceived for the initial detection and management of Ebola virus and later adjusted for other infectious agents, can be adapted for any emerging infectious disease. This paper reports a modification of the 3I Tool for use in the initial detection and management of patients under investigation for 2019-nCoV.", "This paper reports a modification of the 3I Tool for use in the initial detection and management of patients under investigation for 2019-nCoV. After initial assessment for symptoms and epidemiological risk factors, including travel to affected areas and exposure to confirmed 2019-nCoV patients within 14 days, patients are classified in a risk-stratified system. Upon confirmation of a suspected 2019-nCoV case, affected persons must immediately be placed in airborne infection isolation and the appropriate public health agencies notified.", "Upon confirmation of a suspected 2019-nCoV case, affected persons must immediately be placed in airborne infection isolation and the appropriate public health agencies notified. This modified 3I Tool will assist emergency and primary care clinicians, as well as out-of-hospital providers, in effectively managing persons with suspected or confirmed 2019-nCoV. Text: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is a novel respiratory disease first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019.", "Text: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is a novel respiratory disease first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. 1 Chinese health officials were originally investigating a sudden increase in cases of pneumonia which were later determined to be linked to 2019-nCoV. While most cases originated within mainland China, the disease spread to neighboring countries including Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan, and later to the United States, Europe, and Australia.", "While most cases originated within mainland China, the disease spread to neighboring countries including Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan, and later to the United States, Europe, and Australia. A near real-time updated tracking website for cases and locations worldwide, along with reported deaths is available. 2 Chinese health authorities have sequenced 2019-nCoV and freely shared its genetic profile online.", "2 Chinese health authorities have sequenced 2019-nCoV and freely shared its genetic profile online. 3, 4 Additionally, on January 28, 2020, an Australian laboratory reported growing the virus from a patient sample. As of January 30, 2020, there have been at least 9,776 persons infected and 213 verified deaths.", "As of January 30, 2020, there have been at least 9,776 persons infected and 213 verified deaths. 2 These numbers are likely underestimates due to the limited information available regarding incubation time, transmissibility, and virus origin. The What was the research question?", "The What was the research question? Investigators adapted the \"Identify, Isolate, Inform\" 3I Tool for use in suspected cases of 2019-nCoV. What was the major finding of the study? A novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool is designed for frontline clinicians in the management of suspected patients.", "A novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool is designed for frontline clinicians in the management of suspected patients. This 2019-nCoV 3I adaptation will aid healthcare providers most likely to encounter the disease in the containment and effective treatment of patients. age distribution of these verified deaths is currently not available.", "age distribution of these verified deaths is currently not available. One preliminary, small-scale study of 41 patients in Wuhan China, reported 6 deaths 15% mortality with a median age of 49.0 years. 5 Additionally, transmission of the virus has reportedly occurred in healthcare facilities in Wuhan City, raising concerns of spread to healthcare workers, as was seen during prior outbreaks of the novel coronaviruses, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS .", "5 Additionally, transmission of the virus has reportedly occurred in healthcare facilities in Wuhan City, raising concerns of spread to healthcare workers, as was seen during prior outbreaks of the novel coronaviruses, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS . Due to the dynamic nature of the outbreak, exposure criteria may change depending on where new cases of 2019-nCoV are detected, the degree of transmissibility, and when additional information regarding the origin of the virus is discovered and reported. On January 15, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC confirmed the first known imported case of 2019-nCoV in the US state of Washington.", "On January 15, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC confirmed the first known imported case of 2019-nCoV in the US state of Washington. The patient had recently returned from Wuhan City, where he likely contracted the disease. Chicago health authorities reported a second US case on January 24, 2020.", "Chicago health authorities reported a second US case on January 24, 2020. This was quickly followed by additional imported cases reported in Orange and Los Angeles Counties, California on January 26, 2020. Additional suspected cases continue to be evaluated.", "Additional suspected cases continue to be evaluated. On January 30, 2020, the CDC reported the first local transmission in the US between members in a household. On the same day, the World Health Organization declared 2019-nCoV to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern PHEIC .", "On the same day, the World Health Organization declared 2019-nCoV to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern PHEIC . 6 On January 31, 2020, the US Department of Health and Human Services declared coronavirus a public health emergency. 7 Healthy individuals and those with mild illness may be asymptomatic, while others may have more pronounced symptoms of fever or lower respiratory illness.", "7 Healthy individuals and those with mild illness may be asymptomatic, while others may have more pronounced symptoms of fever or lower respiratory illness. Upon identification of a suspected patient, that individual should immediately be isolated with airborne precautions. Further workup and laboratory confirmation can then proceed.", "Further workup and laboratory confirmation can then proceed. Emergency physicians EPs , emergency medical services EMS personnel, and other healthcare workers who encounter patients with suspected 2019-nCoV infection must inform the appropriate authorities, including but not limited to hospital infection control and local or state public health agencies. Healthcare workers must follow on-going developments related to the outbreak, especially new information concerning detection and management.", "Healthcare workers must follow on-going developments related to the outbreak, especially new information concerning detection and management. 8, 9 The 3I Tool outlined in this paper is consistent with current US CDC guidelines and can be applied in a variety of settings such as those in emergency departments, urgent-care clinics, physicians' offices, and prehospital settings. This paper will first briefly review 2019-nCoV and then present the novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool as modified from its initial conception for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies.", "This paper will first briefly review 2019-nCoV and then present the novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool as modified from its initial conception for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies. 18 Coronavirus 2019-nCoV infection commonly presents with signs and symptoms of pneumonia or as a nonspecific lower respiratory illness, with coughing or difficulty breathing accompanied by fever. 5, 19, 20 Fever and cough constitute the most common presentations.", "5, 19, 20 Fever and cough constitute the most common presentations. However, patients may have other respiratory symptoms, sore throat, nasal congestion, malaise, myalgia, and headache. Bilateral infiltrates may be seen on chest X-ray. Severe cases may present with sepsis and even shock.", "Severe cases may present with sepsis and even shock. Conversely, some patients may present as only mildly ill or asymptomatic altogether. 21 To date, patients with underlying medical conditions and the elderly are more likely to become severely ill, require hospitalization, and ultimately die.", "21 To date, patients with underlying medical conditions and the elderly are more likely to become severely ill, require hospitalization, and ultimately die. 22 Early predictions for incubation time are between 2 and 14 days, based on data from similar coronaviruses. The 14-day criterion for epidemiological risk assumes the longest estimated incubation time.", "The 14-day criterion for epidemiological risk assumes the longest estimated incubation time. 23 In addition, the World Health Organization WHO has created its own interim case definition. 24 By definition, the main features of a novel virus, for example, how it is transmitted, will not be immediately known.", "24 By definition, the main features of a novel virus, for example, how it is transmitted, will not be immediately known. However, as with the development of any 3I Tool, it is essential to understand specific characteristics of the disease. In the case of a novel virus such as 2019-CoV, this is challenging since information is rapidly evolving and the science is not yet fully understood.", "In the case of a novel virus such as 2019-CoV, this is challenging since information is rapidly evolving and the science is not yet fully understood. It is possible that the virus will undergo mutations over time that could substantially change its The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus Koenig et al. features.", "features. Nevertheless, an appreciation of the key concepts that drive evidence-based management is beneficial Table 1 . Management guidance will likely change over time. With the initial discovery of a new potential public health threat, it will likely be unclear how patients become sick.", "With the initial discovery of a new potential public health threat, it will likely be unclear how patients become sick. For example, rather than a contagion, there could be a contaminant or a toxin responsible for signs and symptoms. In this case, the possibility of an environmental toxin in the Wuhan Market was a consideration early on when limited to no human-tohuman transmission was reported.", "In this case, the possibility of an environmental toxin in the Wuhan Market was a consideration early on when limited to no human-tohuman transmission was reported. The mode of transmission has implications for the types of personal protective equipment PPE needed to protect healthcare providers in the prehospital, clinic, and hospital settings. 25 In addition, patients may need decontamination after exposure to certain toxins.", "25 In addition, patients may need decontamination after exposure to certain toxins. 26 Another important consideration for application of the 3I Tool is whether the disease is contagious prior to symptom onset like measles or only after symptoms develop like Ebola . A January 30, 2020 letter to the New England Journal of Medicine describes a purported confirmed instance of transmission from an asymptomatic individual.", "A January 30, 2020 letter to the New England Journal of Medicine describes a purported confirmed instance of transmission from an asymptomatic individual. Researchers state that, before symptom onset, the primary case infected two individuals, one of which infected two additional colleagues. 27 Subsequent investigation suggested that the source patient did have mild symptoms and had taken an antipyretic, calling this reported asymptomatic transmission into question.", "27 Subsequent investigation suggested that the source patient did have mild symptoms and had taken an antipyretic, calling this reported asymptomatic transmission into question. While quarantine may not be feasible and can have unintended consequences, 28, 29, 30 it is a public health tool that can be considered in cases when disease is transmissible before symptom onset. 30 Conversely, if a disease is known not to be transmissible prior to symptom onset, asymptomatic exposed patients must be monitored, but do not require quarantine or isolation unless they develop symptoms.", "30 Conversely, if a disease is known not to be transmissible prior to symptom onset, asymptomatic exposed patients must be monitored, but do not require quarantine or isolation unless they develop symptoms. Initially, it may be unclear whether an infectious agent occurred naturally or was deliberately or accidentally released. In this case, a BSL-4 laboratory studying coronaviruses was located approximately 32 kilometers away from the market where initial exposures were felt to occur.", "In this case, a BSL-4 laboratory studying coronaviruses was located approximately 32 kilometers away from the market where initial exposures were felt to occur. 31 Recall that in 2001, the anthrax letter attacks were initially thought to be naturally occurring. Once determined to be bioterrorism, management of the event was similar to that for a chemical exposure with a sudden impact, defined scene, and need for a rapid response and decontamination on site.", "Once determined to be bioterrorism, management of the event was similar to that for a chemical exposure with a sudden impact, defined scene, and need for a rapid response and decontamination on site. This differed from the WHO's modeling predicting an aerosolized release that would result in an incubation period with 100,000 or more persons exposed rather than the 22 people who contracted anthrax in 2001. 32 By understanding the key features of a novel disease, healthcare workers can take evidence-based measures to protect themselves, optimize individual patient management, and prevent further disease spread.", "32 By understanding the key features of a novel disease, healthcare workers can take evidence-based measures to protect themselves, optimize individual patient management, and prevent further disease spread. It is currently unclear how 2019-nCoV is spread, but it is suspected to be transmitted through contact with infected respiratory secretions, like other known coronaviruses. There are instances of sustained human-to-human transmission across generations of cases, especially near the epicenter in Wuhan City.", "There are instances of sustained human-to-human transmission across generations of cases, especially near the epicenter in Wuhan City. 21 Current evidence suggests that close contact with an infected person is a major factor in disease transmission. CDC defines \"close contact\" 33 as being in or within two meters of an area with a confirmed patient or being directly exposed to infectious secretions without appropriate PPE.", "CDC defines \"close contact\" 33 as being in or within two meters of an area with a confirmed patient or being directly exposed to infectious secretions without appropriate PPE. Healthcare facilities in China have reported spread from person to person. In addition, some mildly ill or potentially even asymptomatic patients may have a higher chance of spreading the disease to others as they may be less likely to seek medical care.", "In addition, some mildly ill or potentially even asymptomatic patients may have a higher chance of spreading the disease to others as they may be less likely to seek medical care. 34 The possibility that patients may be infectious prior to symptom onset further compounds the difficulty of containing the virus and effectively preventing transmission. The current majority of 2019-nCoV cases have been within China and its bordering countries.", "The current majority of 2019-nCoV cases have been within China and its bordering countries. 2 Persons with recent travel within 14 days to Wuhan City or another region with widespread disease, or exposure to a patient under investigation, are considered to have an epidemiologic risk factor and should be assessed for signs and symptoms of a viral illness such as fever and respiratory symptoms. Coronavirus is a zoonotic virus The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus that is transmitted to humans via contact with infected animals.", "Coronavirus is a zoonotic virus The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus that is transmitted to humans via contact with infected animals. Preliminary reports suggest the disease may have originated in a seafood and live animal market in Wuhan City, but it is still unknown how or whether such transmission occurred. Clinicians working with local public health departments must arrange to have specimens from patients under investigation PUIs sent to the CDC laboratory.", "Clinicians working with local public health departments must arrange to have specimens from patients under investigation PUIs sent to the CDC laboratory. At this time, the CDC has the only laboratory that can definitively test for 2019-nCoV, though laboratory testing capacity is being rapidly expanded. Polymerase chain reaction PCR assays conducted on samples from a patient's upper and lower respiratory tracts will be used to confirm potential cases.", "Polymerase chain reaction PCR assays conducted on samples from a patient's upper and lower respiratory tracts will be used to confirm potential cases. In addition, serum antibody titers can be analyzed for confirmation of infection or evidence of immunity. Up-to-date information about the needed specimens and handling requirements to test for 2019-nCoV are available on the CDC website.", "Up-to-date information about the needed specimens and handling requirements to test for 2019-nCoV are available on the CDC website. 35 Like other related coronaviruses, patients with 2019-nCoV frequently present with non-specific symptoms resembling that of influenza. Physicians may consider differential diagnoses related to a wide variety of respiratory infections.", "Physicians may consider differential diagnoses related to a wide variety of respiratory infections. In order to relate these symptoms to 2019-nCoV, it is imperative that the identification of a potential exposure event epidemiologic risk factor within 14 days of symptom onset is made so that a more focused work-up for 2019-nCoV can be completed. Although the likelihood of coinfection of 2019-nCoV and another respiratory virus is thought to be low, a positive finding of another respiratory pathogen does not exclude the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV.", "Although the likelihood of coinfection of 2019-nCoV and another respiratory virus is thought to be low, a positive finding of another respiratory pathogen does not exclude the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. Many commercially available respiratory panels include \"coronavirus\" in the results, but neither a positive nor a negative finding on these panels should be used to include or exclude a diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. Supportive care with appropriate infection control is the mainstay of current CDC treatment guidelines for 2019-nCoV.", "Supportive care with appropriate infection control is the mainstay of current CDC treatment guidelines for 2019-nCoV. There are not yet any approved antiviral treatments for 2019-nCoV. Emergency Use Authorizations EUA for compassionate use cases may be forthcoming from the US federal government for normally unapproved treatments. Supportive treatment predominantly includes respiratory support, hydration, and antipyretics.", "Supportive treatment predominantly includes respiratory support, hydration, and antipyretics. General treatment for severe cases should focus on the preservation of vital organ function. In the future, antiviral medications may be available. If a secondary bacterial infection such as pneumonia develops, targeted antibiotics are indicated.", "If a secondary bacterial infection such as pneumonia develops, targeted antibiotics are indicated. Prevention of 2019-nCoV transmission, like any other infectious agent, involves minimizing risk of exposure. Vaccines are under accelerated development and may be useful in the future for post-exposure prophylaxis.", "Vaccines are under accelerated development and may be useful in the future for post-exposure prophylaxis. Healthcare personnel are at increased risk and should practice standard, droplet, and airborne precautions when encountering an infected person, a PUI, or any symptomatic close contacts. Healthcare workers handling specimens should also adhere to CDC guidelines and should not attempt to perform any virus isolation or characterization.", "Healthcare workers handling specimens should also adhere to CDC guidelines and should not attempt to perform any virus isolation or characterization. Fever screening has been implemented at numerous airports, including major international hubs within Asia and the US. The efficacy of this intervention is not well documented, however, as some infected persons may be afebrile and disease transmission might occur prior to symptom onset.", "The efficacy of this intervention is not well documented, however, as some infected persons may be afebrile and disease transmission might occur prior to symptom onset. 27 In addition, people can artificially lower their temperature readings, e.g., by applying ice to their foreheads. As outlined above, admission criteria for 2019-nCoV are similar to that of other patients.", "As outlined above, admission criteria for 2019-nCoV are similar to that of other patients. If patients do not meet medical criteria for hospitalization, they may be discharged home with isolation precautions and continued observation. EPs must notify local public health authorities so appropriate monitoring and community protective measures can be instituted.", "EPs must notify local public health authorities so appropriate monitoring and community protective measures can be instituted. The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool was initially developed for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies. 18 This novel tool for suspected 2019-nCoV patients Figure 1 provides frontline clinicians with a simple algorithm to manage an emerging disease.", "18 This novel tool for suspected 2019-nCoV patients Figure 1 provides frontline clinicians with a simple algorithm to manage an emerging disease. Identification of exposed patients with an epidemiologic risk factor within 14 days of symptom onset is a crucial first step. An automatic prompt in the electronic health record can be useful in assisting clinicians with early identification of patients at risk.", "An automatic prompt in the electronic health record can be useful in assisting clinicians with early identification of patients at risk. Case definitions promulgated by the WHO 24 and CDC 33 provide useful comprehensive definitions that have been incorporated into the 3I Tool. The 2019-nCoV Tool provides an accurate, summarized algorithm to immediately, and effectively manage suspected patients until additional resources can be consulted.", "The 2019-nCoV Tool provides an accurate, summarized algorithm to immediately, and effectively manage suspected patients until additional resources can be consulted. Patients who do not have an exposure risk or any symptoms may be triaged normally. However, before making patient contact, providers must first apply the Vital Sign Zero concept.", "However, before making patient contact, providers must first apply the Vital Sign Zero concept. 36 Vital Sign Zero is a preliminary, non-contact assessment i.e., performed prior to touching a patient to take traditional vital signs to first determine whether specific PPE is indicated before the examination commences. By taking the additional time to complete this assessment, risk of exposure and further transmission can be minimized.", "By taking the additional time to complete this assessment, risk of exposure and further transmission can be minimized. while in the treatment facility should be started and maintained to assist with the possibility of contact tracing. Following isolation, physicians should immediately inform the appropriate authorities.", "Following isolation, physicians should immediately inform the appropriate authorities. Patients who do not meet medical criteria for admission can be isolated at home during the evaluation phase. 37 Health department officials can help prevent transmission in isolated patients by providing in-home monitoring and implementing appropriate exposure-control measures.", "37 Health department officials can help prevent transmission in isolated patients by providing in-home monitoring and implementing appropriate exposure-control measures. Providers in the prehospital setting who have a high likelihood of encountering 2019-nCoV patients, such as those near international ports of entry, should adhere to established exposure control guidelines. 38 Along with appropriate PPE, providers should also carry thermometers to quantify any fever.", "38 Along with appropriate PPE, providers should also carry thermometers to quantify any fever. In the US, providers should contact the appropriate CDC quarantine station upon isolation of infected or suspected patients, especially those from Wuhan, China or other regions with widespread disease, who report symptoms in the last 14 days. As for other infectious diseases, assessing travel history is essential.", "As for other infectious diseases, assessing travel history is essential. Dispatch protocols have been instituted to facilitate identification of callers to 911 or the country-equivalent emergency number prior to prehospital personnel arrival. 39 In addition, CDC has promulgated EMS guidelines for prehospital PPE, transportation of PUIs, vehicle decontamination, and 911 Public Safety Answering Points PSAPs for 2019-nCoV.", "39 In addition, CDC has promulgated EMS guidelines for prehospital PPE, transportation of PUIs, vehicle decontamination, and 911 Public Safety Answering Points PSAPs for 2019-nCoV. 40 2019-nCoV is an emerging infectious disease with rapidly evolving features, the full scope of which will be defined over time. Prior outbreaks of coronaviruses can help inform needed actions in the short term to assist with both treatment of individual patients and prevention of global disease spread.", "Prior outbreaks of coronaviruses can help inform needed actions in the short term to assist with both treatment of individual patients and prevention of global disease spread. This adaptation of the Identify-Isolate-Inform Tool serves as a resource for healthcare workers who need to make clear, rapid assessments when confronted with potential patients. The concise nature of the 2019-nCoV 3I Tool allows for the rapid and effective management of a novel disease by healthcare providers." ]

[ "2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is an emerging infectious disease closely related to MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV that was first reported in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. As of January 2020, cases of 2019-nCoV are continuing to be reported in other Eastern Asian countries as well as in the United States, Europe, Australia, and numerous other countries. An unusually high volume of domestic and international travel corresponding to the beginning of the 2020 Chinese New Year complicated initial identification and containment of infected persons.", "An unusually high volume of domestic and international travel corresponding to the beginning of the 2020 Chinese New Year complicated initial identification and containment of infected persons. Due to the rapidly rising number of cases and reported deaths, all countries should be considered at risk of imported 2019-nCoV. Therefore, it is essential for prehospital, clinic, and emergency department personnel to be able to rapidly assess 2019-nCoV risk and take immediate actions if indicated.", "Therefore, it is essential for prehospital, clinic, and emergency department personnel to be able to rapidly assess 2019-nCoV risk and take immediate actions if indicated. The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool, originally conceived for the initial detection and management of Ebola virus and later adjusted for other infectious agents, can be adapted for any emerging infectious disease. This paper reports a modification of the 3I Tool for use in the initial detection and management of patients under investigation for 2019-nCoV.", "This paper reports a modification of the 3I Tool for use in the initial detection and management of patients under investigation for 2019-nCoV. After initial assessment for symptoms and epidemiological risk factors, including travel to affected areas and exposure to confirmed 2019-nCoV patients within 14 days, patients are classified in a risk-stratified system. Upon confirmation of a suspected 2019-nCoV case, affected persons must immediately be placed in airborne infection isolation and the appropriate public health agencies notified.", "Upon confirmation of a suspected 2019-nCoV case, affected persons must immediately be placed in airborne infection isolation and the appropriate public health agencies notified. This modified 3I Tool will assist emergency and primary care clinicians, as well as out-of-hospital providers, in effectively managing persons with suspected or confirmed 2019-nCoV. Text: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is a novel respiratory disease first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019.", "Text: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is a novel respiratory disease first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. 1 Chinese health officials were originally investigating a sudden increase in cases of pneumonia which were later determined to be linked to 2019-nCoV. While most cases originated within mainland China, the disease spread to neighboring countries including Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan, and later to the United States, Europe, and Australia.", "While most cases originated within mainland China, the disease spread to neighboring countries including Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan, and later to the United States, Europe, and Australia. A near real-time updated tracking website for cases and locations worldwide, along with reported deaths is available. 2 Chinese health authorities have sequenced 2019-nCoV and freely shared its genetic profile online.", "2 Chinese health authorities have sequenced 2019-nCoV and freely shared its genetic profile online. 3, 4 Additionally, on January 28, 2020, an Australian laboratory reported growing the virus from a patient sample. As of January 30, 2020, there have been at least 9,776 persons infected and 213 verified deaths.", "As of January 30, 2020, there have been at least 9,776 persons infected and 213 verified deaths. 2 These numbers are likely underestimates due to the limited information available regarding incubation time, transmissibility, and virus origin. The What was the research question?", "The What was the research question? Investigators adapted the \"Identify, Isolate, Inform\" 3I Tool for use in suspected cases of 2019-nCoV. What was the major finding of the study? A novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool is designed for frontline clinicians in the management of suspected patients.", "A novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool is designed for frontline clinicians in the management of suspected patients. This 2019-nCoV 3I adaptation will aid healthcare providers most likely to encounter the disease in the containment and effective treatment of patients. age distribution of these verified deaths is currently not available.", "age distribution of these verified deaths is currently not available. One preliminary, small-scale study of 41 patients in Wuhan China, reported 6 deaths 15% mortality with a median age of 49.0 years. 5 Additionally, transmission of the virus has reportedly occurred in healthcare facilities in Wuhan City, raising concerns of spread to healthcare workers, as was seen during prior outbreaks of the novel coronaviruses, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS .", "5 Additionally, transmission of the virus has reportedly occurred in healthcare facilities in Wuhan City, raising concerns of spread to healthcare workers, as was seen during prior outbreaks of the novel coronaviruses, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS . Due to the dynamic nature of the outbreak, exposure criteria may change depending on where new cases of 2019-nCoV are detected, the degree of transmissibility, and when additional information regarding the origin of the virus is discovered and reported. On January 15, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC confirmed the first known imported case of 2019-nCoV in the US state of Washington.", "On January 15, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC confirmed the first known imported case of 2019-nCoV in the US state of Washington. The patient had recently returned from Wuhan City, where he likely contracted the disease. Chicago health authorities reported a second US case on January 24, 2020.", "Chicago health authorities reported a second US case on January 24, 2020. This was quickly followed by additional imported cases reported in Orange and Los Angeles Counties, California on January 26, 2020. Additional suspected cases continue to be evaluated.", "Additional suspected cases continue to be evaluated. On January 30, 2020, the CDC reported the first local transmission in the US between members in a household. On the same day, the World Health Organization declared 2019-nCoV to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern PHEIC .", "On the same day, the World Health Organization declared 2019-nCoV to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern PHEIC . 6 On January 31, 2020, the US Department of Health and Human Services declared coronavirus a public health emergency. 7 Healthy individuals and those with mild illness may be asymptomatic, while others may have more pronounced symptoms of fever or lower respiratory illness.", "7 Healthy individuals and those with mild illness may be asymptomatic, while others may have more pronounced symptoms of fever or lower respiratory illness. Upon identification of a suspected patient, that individual should immediately be isolated with airborne precautions. Further workup and laboratory confirmation can then proceed.", "Further workup and laboratory confirmation can then proceed. Emergency physicians EPs , emergency medical services EMS personnel, and other healthcare workers who encounter patients with suspected 2019-nCoV infection must inform the appropriate authorities, including but not limited to hospital infection control and local or state public health agencies. Healthcare workers must follow on-going developments related to the outbreak, especially new information concerning detection and management.", "Healthcare workers must follow on-going developments related to the outbreak, especially new information concerning detection and management. 8, 9 The 3I Tool outlined in this paper is consistent with current US CDC guidelines and can be applied in a variety of settings such as those in emergency departments, urgent-care clinics, physicians' offices, and prehospital settings. This paper will first briefly review 2019-nCoV and then present the novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool as modified from its initial conception for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies.", "This paper will first briefly review 2019-nCoV and then present the novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool as modified from its initial conception for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies. 18 Coronavirus 2019-nCoV infection commonly presents with signs and symptoms of pneumonia or as a nonspecific lower respiratory illness, with coughing or difficulty breathing accompanied by fever. 5, 19, 20 Fever and cough constitute the most common presentations.", "5, 19, 20 Fever and cough constitute the most common presentations. However, patients may have other respiratory symptoms, sore throat, nasal congestion, malaise, myalgia, and headache. Bilateral infiltrates may be seen on chest X-ray. Severe cases may present with sepsis and even shock.", "Severe cases may present with sepsis and even shock. Conversely, some patients may present as only mildly ill or asymptomatic altogether. 21 To date, patients with underlying medical conditions and the elderly are more likely to become severely ill, require hospitalization, and ultimately die.", "21 To date, patients with underlying medical conditions and the elderly are more likely to become severely ill, require hospitalization, and ultimately die. 22 Early predictions for incubation time are between 2 and 14 days, based on data from similar coronaviruses. The 14-day criterion for epidemiological risk assumes the longest estimated incubation time.", "The 14-day criterion for epidemiological risk assumes the longest estimated incubation time. 23 In addition, the World Health Organization WHO has created its own interim case definition. 24 By definition, the main features of a novel virus, for example, how it is transmitted, will not be immediately known.", "24 By definition, the main features of a novel virus, for example, how it is transmitted, will not be immediately known. However, as with the development of any 3I Tool, it is essential to understand specific characteristics of the disease. In the case of a novel virus such as 2019-CoV, this is challenging since information is rapidly evolving and the science is not yet fully understood.", "In the case of a novel virus such as 2019-CoV, this is challenging since information is rapidly evolving and the science is not yet fully understood. It is possible that the virus will undergo mutations over time that could substantially change its The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus Koenig et al. features.", "features. Nevertheless, an appreciation of the key concepts that drive evidence-based management is beneficial Table 1 . Management guidance will likely change over time. With the initial discovery of a new potential public health threat, it will likely be unclear how patients become sick.", "With the initial discovery of a new potential public health threat, it will likely be unclear how patients become sick. For example, rather than a contagion, there could be a contaminant or a toxin responsible for signs and symptoms. In this case, the possibility of an environmental toxin in the Wuhan Market was a consideration early on when limited to no human-tohuman transmission was reported.", "In this case, the possibility of an environmental toxin in the Wuhan Market was a consideration early on when limited to no human-tohuman transmission was reported. The mode of transmission has implications for the types of personal protective equipment PPE needed to protect healthcare providers in the prehospital, clinic, and hospital settings. 25 In addition, patients may need decontamination after exposure to certain toxins.", "25 In addition, patients may need decontamination after exposure to certain toxins. 26 Another important consideration for application of the 3I Tool is whether the disease is contagious prior to symptom onset like measles or only after symptoms develop like Ebola . A January 30, 2020 letter to the New England Journal of Medicine describes a purported confirmed instance of transmission from an asymptomatic individual.", "A January 30, 2020 letter to the New England Journal of Medicine describes a purported confirmed instance of transmission from an asymptomatic individual. Researchers state that, before symptom onset, the primary case infected two individuals, one of which infected two additional colleagues. 27 Subsequent investigation suggested that the source patient did have mild symptoms and had taken an antipyretic, calling this reported asymptomatic transmission into question.", "27 Subsequent investigation suggested that the source patient did have mild symptoms and had taken an antipyretic, calling this reported asymptomatic transmission into question. While quarantine may not be feasible and can have unintended consequences, 28, 29, 30 it is a public health tool that can be considered in cases when disease is transmissible before symptom onset. 30 Conversely, if a disease is known not to be transmissible prior to symptom onset, asymptomatic exposed patients must be monitored, but do not require quarantine or isolation unless they develop symptoms.", "30 Conversely, if a disease is known not to be transmissible prior to symptom onset, asymptomatic exposed patients must be monitored, but do not require quarantine or isolation unless they develop symptoms. Initially, it may be unclear whether an infectious agent occurred naturally or was deliberately or accidentally released. In this case, a BSL-4 laboratory studying coronaviruses was located approximately 32 kilometers away from the market where initial exposures were felt to occur.", "In this case, a BSL-4 laboratory studying coronaviruses was located approximately 32 kilometers away from the market where initial exposures were felt to occur. 31 Recall that in 2001, the anthrax letter attacks were initially thought to be naturally occurring. Once determined to be bioterrorism, management of the event was similar to that for a chemical exposure with a sudden impact, defined scene, and need for a rapid response and decontamination on site.", "Once determined to be bioterrorism, management of the event was similar to that for a chemical exposure with a sudden impact, defined scene, and need for a rapid response and decontamination on site. This differed from the WHO's modeling predicting an aerosolized release that would result in an incubation period with 100,000 or more persons exposed rather than the 22 people who contracted anthrax in 2001. 32 By understanding the key features of a novel disease, healthcare workers can take evidence-based measures to protect themselves, optimize individual patient management, and prevent further disease spread.", "32 By understanding the key features of a novel disease, healthcare workers can take evidence-based measures to protect themselves, optimize individual patient management, and prevent further disease spread. It is currently unclear how 2019-nCoV is spread, but it is suspected to be transmitted through contact with infected respiratory secretions, like other known coronaviruses. There are instances of sustained human-to-human transmission across generations of cases, especially near the epicenter in Wuhan City.", "There are instances of sustained human-to-human transmission across generations of cases, especially near the epicenter in Wuhan City. 21 Current evidence suggests that close contact with an infected person is a major factor in disease transmission. CDC defines \"close contact\" 33 as being in or within two meters of an area with a confirmed patient or being directly exposed to infectious secretions without appropriate PPE.", "CDC defines \"close contact\" 33 as being in or within two meters of an area with a confirmed patient or being directly exposed to infectious secretions without appropriate PPE. Healthcare facilities in China have reported spread from person to person. In addition, some mildly ill or potentially even asymptomatic patients may have a higher chance of spreading the disease to others as they may be less likely to seek medical care.", "In addition, some mildly ill or potentially even asymptomatic patients may have a higher chance of spreading the disease to others as they may be less likely to seek medical care. 34 The possibility that patients may be infectious prior to symptom onset further compounds the difficulty of containing the virus and effectively preventing transmission. The current majority of 2019-nCoV cases have been within China and its bordering countries.", "The current majority of 2019-nCoV cases have been within China and its bordering countries. 2 Persons with recent travel within 14 days to Wuhan City or another region with widespread disease, or exposure to a patient under investigation, are considered to have an epidemiologic risk factor and should be assessed for signs and symptoms of a viral illness such as fever and respiratory symptoms. Coronavirus is a zoonotic virus The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus that is transmitted to humans via contact with infected animals.", "Coronavirus is a zoonotic virus The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus that is transmitted to humans via contact with infected animals. Preliminary reports suggest the disease may have originated in a seafood and live animal market in Wuhan City, but it is still unknown how or whether such transmission occurred. Clinicians working with local public health departments must arrange to have specimens from patients under investigation PUIs sent to the CDC laboratory.", "Clinicians working with local public health departments must arrange to have specimens from patients under investigation PUIs sent to the CDC laboratory. At this time, the CDC has the only laboratory that can definitively test for 2019-nCoV, though laboratory testing capacity is being rapidly expanded. Polymerase chain reaction PCR assays conducted on samples from a patient's upper and lower respiratory tracts will be used to confirm potential cases.", "Polymerase chain reaction PCR assays conducted on samples from a patient's upper and lower respiratory tracts will be used to confirm potential cases. In addition, serum antibody titers can be analyzed for confirmation of infection or evidence of immunity. Up-to-date information about the needed specimens and handling requirements to test for 2019-nCoV are available on the CDC website.", "Up-to-date information about the needed specimens and handling requirements to test for 2019-nCoV are available on the CDC website. 35 Like other related coronaviruses, patients with 2019-nCoV frequently present with non-specific symptoms resembling that of influenza. Physicians may consider differential diagnoses related to a wide variety of respiratory infections.", "Physicians may consider differential diagnoses related to a wide variety of respiratory infections. In order to relate these symptoms to 2019-nCoV, it is imperative that the identification of a potential exposure event epidemiologic risk factor within 14 days of symptom onset is made so that a more focused work-up for 2019-nCoV can be completed. Although the likelihood of coinfection of 2019-nCoV and another respiratory virus is thought to be low, a positive finding of another respiratory pathogen does not exclude the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV.", "Although the likelihood of coinfection of 2019-nCoV and another respiratory virus is thought to be low, a positive finding of another respiratory pathogen does not exclude the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. Many commercially available respiratory panels include \"coronavirus\" in the results, but neither a positive nor a negative finding on these panels should be used to include or exclude a diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. Supportive care with appropriate infection control is the mainstay of current CDC treatment guidelines for 2019-nCoV.", "Supportive care with appropriate infection control is the mainstay of current CDC treatment guidelines for 2019-nCoV. There are not yet any approved antiviral treatments for 2019-nCoV. Emergency Use Authorizations EUA for compassionate use cases may be forthcoming from the US federal government for normally unapproved treatments. Supportive treatment predominantly includes respiratory support, hydration, and antipyretics.", "Supportive treatment predominantly includes respiratory support, hydration, and antipyretics. General treatment for severe cases should focus on the preservation of vital organ function. In the future, antiviral medications may be available. If a secondary bacterial infection such as pneumonia develops, targeted antibiotics are indicated.", "If a secondary bacterial infection such as pneumonia develops, targeted antibiotics are indicated. Prevention of 2019-nCoV transmission, like any other infectious agent, involves minimizing risk of exposure. Vaccines are under accelerated development and may be useful in the future for post-exposure prophylaxis.", "Vaccines are under accelerated development and may be useful in the future for post-exposure prophylaxis. Healthcare personnel are at increased risk and should practice standard, droplet, and airborne precautions when encountering an infected person, a PUI, or any symptomatic close contacts. Healthcare workers handling specimens should also adhere to CDC guidelines and should not attempt to perform any virus isolation or characterization.", "Healthcare workers handling specimens should also adhere to CDC guidelines and should not attempt to perform any virus isolation or characterization. Fever screening has been implemented at numerous airports, including major international hubs within Asia and the US. The efficacy of this intervention is not well documented, however, as some infected persons may be afebrile and disease transmission might occur prior to symptom onset.", "The efficacy of this intervention is not well documented, however, as some infected persons may be afebrile and disease transmission might occur prior to symptom onset. 27 In addition, people can artificially lower their temperature readings, e.g., by applying ice to their foreheads. As outlined above, admission criteria for 2019-nCoV are similar to that of other patients.", "As outlined above, admission criteria for 2019-nCoV are similar to that of other patients. If patients do not meet medical criteria for hospitalization, they may be discharged home with isolation precautions and continued observation. EPs must notify local public health authorities so appropriate monitoring and community protective measures can be instituted.", "EPs must notify local public health authorities so appropriate monitoring and community protective measures can be instituted. The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool was initially developed for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies. 18 This novel tool for suspected 2019-nCoV patients Figure 1 provides frontline clinicians with a simple algorithm to manage an emerging disease.", "18 This novel tool for suspected 2019-nCoV patients Figure 1 provides frontline clinicians with a simple algorithm to manage an emerging disease. Identification of exposed patients with an epidemiologic risk factor within 14 days of symptom onset is a crucial first step. An automatic prompt in the electronic health record can be useful in assisting clinicians with early identification of patients at risk.", "An automatic prompt in the electronic health record can be useful in assisting clinicians with early identification of patients at risk. Case definitions promulgated by the WHO 24 and CDC 33 provide useful comprehensive definitions that have been incorporated into the 3I Tool. The 2019-nCoV Tool provides an accurate, summarized algorithm to immediately, and effectively manage suspected patients until additional resources can be consulted.", "The 2019-nCoV Tool provides an accurate, summarized algorithm to immediately, and effectively manage suspected patients until additional resources can be consulted. Patients who do not have an exposure risk or any symptoms may be triaged normally. However, before making patient contact, providers must first apply the Vital Sign Zero concept.", "However, before making patient contact, providers must first apply the Vital Sign Zero concept. 36 Vital Sign Zero is a preliminary, non-contact assessment i.e., performed prior to touching a patient to take traditional vital signs to first determine whether specific PPE is indicated before the examination commences. By taking the additional time to complete this assessment, risk of exposure and further transmission can be minimized.", "By taking the additional time to complete this assessment, risk of exposure and further transmission can be minimized. while in the treatment facility should be started and maintained to assist with the possibility of contact tracing. Following isolation, physicians should immediately inform the appropriate authorities.", "Following isolation, physicians should immediately inform the appropriate authorities. Patients who do not meet medical criteria for admission can be isolated at home during the evaluation phase. 37 Health department officials can help prevent transmission in isolated patients by providing in-home monitoring and implementing appropriate exposure-control measures.", "37 Health department officials can help prevent transmission in isolated patients by providing in-home monitoring and implementing appropriate exposure-control measures. Providers in the prehospital setting who have a high likelihood of encountering 2019-nCoV patients, such as those near international ports of entry, should adhere to established exposure control guidelines. 38 Along with appropriate PPE, providers should also carry thermometers to quantify any fever.", "38 Along with appropriate PPE, providers should also carry thermometers to quantify any fever. In the US, providers should contact the appropriate CDC quarantine station upon isolation of infected or suspected patients, especially those from Wuhan, China or other regions with widespread disease, who report symptoms in the last 14 days. As for other infectious diseases, assessing travel history is essential.", "As for other infectious diseases, assessing travel history is essential. Dispatch protocols have been instituted to facilitate identification of callers to 911 or the country-equivalent emergency number prior to prehospital personnel arrival. 39 In addition, CDC has promulgated EMS guidelines for prehospital PPE, transportation of PUIs, vehicle decontamination, and 911 Public Safety Answering Points PSAPs for 2019-nCoV.", "39 In addition, CDC has promulgated EMS guidelines for prehospital PPE, transportation of PUIs, vehicle decontamination, and 911 Public Safety Answering Points PSAPs for 2019-nCoV. 40 2019-nCoV is an emerging infectious disease with rapidly evolving features, the full scope of which will be defined over time. Prior outbreaks of coronaviruses can help inform needed actions in the short term to assist with both treatment of individual patients and prevention of global disease spread.", "Prior outbreaks of coronaviruses can help inform needed actions in the short term to assist with both treatment of individual patients and prevention of global disease spread. This adaptation of the Identify-Isolate-Inform Tool serves as a resource for healthcare workers who need to make clear, rapid assessments when confronted with potential patients. The concise nature of the 2019-nCoV 3I Tool allows for the rapid and effective management of a novel disease by healthcare providers." ]

[ "2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is an emerging infectious disease closely related to MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV that was first reported in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. As of January 2020, cases of 2019-nCoV are continuing to be reported in other Eastern Asian countries as well as in the United States, Europe, Australia, and numerous other countries. An unusually high volume of domestic and international travel corresponding to the beginning of the 2020 Chinese New Year complicated initial identification and containment of infected persons.", "An unusually high volume of domestic and international travel corresponding to the beginning of the 2020 Chinese New Year complicated initial identification and containment of infected persons. Due to the rapidly rising number of cases and reported deaths, all countries should be considered at risk of imported 2019-nCoV. Therefore, it is essential for prehospital, clinic, and emergency department personnel to be able to rapidly assess 2019-nCoV risk and take immediate actions if indicated.", "Therefore, it is essential for prehospital, clinic, and emergency department personnel to be able to rapidly assess 2019-nCoV risk and take immediate actions if indicated. The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool, originally conceived for the initial detection and management of Ebola virus and later adjusted for other infectious agents, can be adapted for any emerging infectious disease. This paper reports a modification of the 3I Tool for use in the initial detection and management of patients under investigation for 2019-nCoV.", "This paper reports a modification of the 3I Tool for use in the initial detection and management of patients under investigation for 2019-nCoV. After initial assessment for symptoms and epidemiological risk factors, including travel to affected areas and exposure to confirmed 2019-nCoV patients within 14 days, patients are classified in a risk-stratified system. Upon confirmation of a suspected 2019-nCoV case, affected persons must immediately be placed in airborne infection isolation and the appropriate public health agencies notified.", "Upon confirmation of a suspected 2019-nCoV case, affected persons must immediately be placed in airborne infection isolation and the appropriate public health agencies notified. This modified 3I Tool will assist emergency and primary care clinicians, as well as out-of-hospital providers, in effectively managing persons with suspected or confirmed 2019-nCoV. Text: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is a novel respiratory disease first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019.", "Text: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is a novel respiratory disease first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. 1 Chinese health officials were originally investigating a sudden increase in cases of pneumonia which were later determined to be linked to 2019-nCoV. While most cases originated within mainland China, the disease spread to neighboring countries including Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan, and later to the United States, Europe, and Australia.", "While most cases originated within mainland China, the disease spread to neighboring countries including Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan, and later to the United States, Europe, and Australia. A near real-time updated tracking website for cases and locations worldwide, along with reported deaths is available. 2 Chinese health authorities have sequenced 2019-nCoV and freely shared its genetic profile online.", "2 Chinese health authorities have sequenced 2019-nCoV and freely shared its genetic profile online. 3, 4 Additionally, on January 28, 2020, an Australian laboratory reported growing the virus from a patient sample. As of January 30, 2020, there have been at least 9,776 persons infected and 213 verified deaths.", "As of January 30, 2020, there have been at least 9,776 persons infected and 213 verified deaths. 2 These numbers are likely underestimates due to the limited information available regarding incubation time, transmissibility, and virus origin. The What was the research question?", "The What was the research question? Investigators adapted the \"Identify, Isolate, Inform\" 3I Tool for use in suspected cases of 2019-nCoV. What was the major finding of the study? A novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool is designed for frontline clinicians in the management of suspected patients.", "A novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool is designed for frontline clinicians in the management of suspected patients. This 2019-nCoV 3I adaptation will aid healthcare providers most likely to encounter the disease in the containment and effective treatment of patients. age distribution of these verified deaths is currently not available.", "age distribution of these verified deaths is currently not available. One preliminary, small-scale study of 41 patients in Wuhan China, reported 6 deaths 15% mortality with a median age of 49.0 years. 5 Additionally, transmission of the virus has reportedly occurred in healthcare facilities in Wuhan City, raising concerns of spread to healthcare workers, as was seen during prior outbreaks of the novel coronaviruses, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS .", "5 Additionally, transmission of the virus has reportedly occurred in healthcare facilities in Wuhan City, raising concerns of spread to healthcare workers, as was seen during prior outbreaks of the novel coronaviruses, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS . Due to the dynamic nature of the outbreak, exposure criteria may change depending on where new cases of 2019-nCoV are detected, the degree of transmissibility, and when additional information regarding the origin of the virus is discovered and reported. On January 15, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC confirmed the first known imported case of 2019-nCoV in the US state of Washington.", "On January 15, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC confirmed the first known imported case of 2019-nCoV in the US state of Washington. The patient had recently returned from Wuhan City, where he likely contracted the disease. Chicago health authorities reported a second US case on January 24, 2020.", "Chicago health authorities reported a second US case on January 24, 2020. This was quickly followed by additional imported cases reported in Orange and Los Angeles Counties, California on January 26, 2020. Additional suspected cases continue to be evaluated.", "Additional suspected cases continue to be evaluated. On January 30, 2020, the CDC reported the first local transmission in the US between members in a household. On the same day, the World Health Organization declared 2019-nCoV to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern PHEIC .", "On the same day, the World Health Organization declared 2019-nCoV to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern PHEIC . 6 On January 31, 2020, the US Department of Health and Human Services declared coronavirus a public health emergency. 7 Healthy individuals and those with mild illness may be asymptomatic, while others may have more pronounced symptoms of fever or lower respiratory illness.", "7 Healthy individuals and those with mild illness may be asymptomatic, while others may have more pronounced symptoms of fever or lower respiratory illness. Upon identification of a suspected patient, that individual should immediately be isolated with airborne precautions. Further workup and laboratory confirmation can then proceed.", "Further workup and laboratory confirmation can then proceed. Emergency physicians EPs , emergency medical services EMS personnel, and other healthcare workers who encounter patients with suspected 2019-nCoV infection must inform the appropriate authorities, including but not limited to hospital infection control and local or state public health agencies. Healthcare workers must follow on-going developments related to the outbreak, especially new information concerning detection and management.", "Healthcare workers must follow on-going developments related to the outbreak, especially new information concerning detection and management. 8, 9 The 3I Tool outlined in this paper is consistent with current US CDC guidelines and can be applied in a variety of settings such as those in emergency departments, urgent-care clinics, physicians' offices, and prehospital settings. This paper will first briefly review 2019-nCoV and then present the novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool as modified from its initial conception for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies.", "This paper will first briefly review 2019-nCoV and then present the novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool as modified from its initial conception for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies. 18 Coronavirus 2019-nCoV infection commonly presents with signs and symptoms of pneumonia or as a nonspecific lower respiratory illness, with coughing or difficulty breathing accompanied by fever. 5, 19, 20 Fever and cough constitute the most common presentations.", "5, 19, 20 Fever and cough constitute the most common presentations. However, patients may have other respiratory symptoms, sore throat, nasal congestion, malaise, myalgia, and headache. Bilateral infiltrates may be seen on chest X-ray. Severe cases may present with sepsis and even shock.", "Severe cases may present with sepsis and even shock. Conversely, some patients may present as only mildly ill or asymptomatic altogether. 21 To date, patients with underlying medical conditions and the elderly are more likely to become severely ill, require hospitalization, and ultimately die.", "21 To date, patients with underlying medical conditions and the elderly are more likely to become severely ill, require hospitalization, and ultimately die. 22 Early predictions for incubation time are between 2 and 14 days, based on data from similar coronaviruses. The 14-day criterion for epidemiological risk assumes the longest estimated incubation time.", "The 14-day criterion for epidemiological risk assumes the longest estimated incubation time. 23 In addition, the World Health Organization WHO has created its own interim case definition. 24 By definition, the main features of a novel virus, for example, how it is transmitted, will not be immediately known.", "24 By definition, the main features of a novel virus, for example, how it is transmitted, will not be immediately known. However, as with the development of any 3I Tool, it is essential to understand specific characteristics of the disease. In the case of a novel virus such as 2019-CoV, this is challenging since information is rapidly evolving and the science is not yet fully understood.", "In the case of a novel virus such as 2019-CoV, this is challenging since information is rapidly evolving and the science is not yet fully understood. It is possible that the virus will undergo mutations over time that could substantially change its The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus Koenig et al. features.", "features. Nevertheless, an appreciation of the key concepts that drive evidence-based management is beneficial Table 1 . Management guidance will likely change over time. With the initial discovery of a new potential public health threat, it will likely be unclear how patients become sick.", "With the initial discovery of a new potential public health threat, it will likely be unclear how patients become sick. For example, rather than a contagion, there could be a contaminant or a toxin responsible for signs and symptoms. In this case, the possibility of an environmental toxin in the Wuhan Market was a consideration early on when limited to no human-tohuman transmission was reported.", "In this case, the possibility of an environmental toxin in the Wuhan Market was a consideration early on when limited to no human-tohuman transmission was reported. The mode of transmission has implications for the types of personal protective equipment PPE needed to protect healthcare providers in the prehospital, clinic, and hospital settings. 25 In addition, patients may need decontamination after exposure to certain toxins.", "25 In addition, patients may need decontamination after exposure to certain toxins. 26 Another important consideration for application of the 3I Tool is whether the disease is contagious prior to symptom onset like measles or only after symptoms develop like Ebola . A January 30, 2020 letter to the New England Journal of Medicine describes a purported confirmed instance of transmission from an asymptomatic individual.", "A January 30, 2020 letter to the New England Journal of Medicine describes a purported confirmed instance of transmission from an asymptomatic individual. Researchers state that, before symptom onset, the primary case infected two individuals, one of which infected two additional colleagues. 27 Subsequent investigation suggested that the source patient did have mild symptoms and had taken an antipyretic, calling this reported asymptomatic transmission into question.", "27 Subsequent investigation suggested that the source patient did have mild symptoms and had taken an antipyretic, calling this reported asymptomatic transmission into question. While quarantine may not be feasible and can have unintended consequences, 28, 29, 30 it is a public health tool that can be considered in cases when disease is transmissible before symptom onset. 30 Conversely, if a disease is known not to be transmissible prior to symptom onset, asymptomatic exposed patients must be monitored, but do not require quarantine or isolation unless they develop symptoms.", "30 Conversely, if a disease is known not to be transmissible prior to symptom onset, asymptomatic exposed patients must be monitored, but do not require quarantine or isolation unless they develop symptoms. Initially, it may be unclear whether an infectious agent occurred naturally or was deliberately or accidentally released. In this case, a BSL-4 laboratory studying coronaviruses was located approximately 32 kilometers away from the market where initial exposures were felt to occur.", "In this case, a BSL-4 laboratory studying coronaviruses was located approximately 32 kilometers away from the market where initial exposures were felt to occur. 31 Recall that in 2001, the anthrax letter attacks were initially thought to be naturally occurring. Once determined to be bioterrorism, management of the event was similar to that for a chemical exposure with a sudden impact, defined scene, and need for a rapid response and decontamination on site.", "Once determined to be bioterrorism, management of the event was similar to that for a chemical exposure with a sudden impact, defined scene, and need for a rapid response and decontamination on site. This differed from the WHO's modeling predicting an aerosolized release that would result in an incubation period with 100,000 or more persons exposed rather than the 22 people who contracted anthrax in 2001. 32 By understanding the key features of a novel disease, healthcare workers can take evidence-based measures to protect themselves, optimize individual patient management, and prevent further disease spread.", "32 By understanding the key features of a novel disease, healthcare workers can take evidence-based measures to protect themselves, optimize individual patient management, and prevent further disease spread. It is currently unclear how 2019-nCoV is spread, but it is suspected to be transmitted through contact with infected respiratory secretions, like other known coronaviruses. There are instances of sustained human-to-human transmission across generations of cases, especially near the epicenter in Wuhan City.", "There are instances of sustained human-to-human transmission across generations of cases, especially near the epicenter in Wuhan City. 21 Current evidence suggests that close contact with an infected person is a major factor in disease transmission. CDC defines \"close contact\" 33 as being in or within two meters of an area with a confirmed patient or being directly exposed to infectious secretions without appropriate PPE.", "CDC defines \"close contact\" 33 as being in or within two meters of an area with a confirmed patient or being directly exposed to infectious secretions without appropriate PPE. Healthcare facilities in China have reported spread from person to person. In addition, some mildly ill or potentially even asymptomatic patients may have a higher chance of spreading the disease to others as they may be less likely to seek medical care.", "In addition, some mildly ill or potentially even asymptomatic patients may have a higher chance of spreading the disease to others as they may be less likely to seek medical care. 34 The possibility that patients may be infectious prior to symptom onset further compounds the difficulty of containing the virus and effectively preventing transmission. The current majority of 2019-nCoV cases have been within China and its bordering countries.", "The current majority of 2019-nCoV cases have been within China and its bordering countries. 2 Persons with recent travel within 14 days to Wuhan City or another region with widespread disease, or exposure to a patient under investigation, are considered to have an epidemiologic risk factor and should be assessed for signs and symptoms of a viral illness such as fever and respiratory symptoms. Coronavirus is a zoonotic virus The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus that is transmitted to humans via contact with infected animals.", "Coronavirus is a zoonotic virus The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus that is transmitted to humans via contact with infected animals. Preliminary reports suggest the disease may have originated in a seafood and live animal market in Wuhan City, but it is still unknown how or whether such transmission occurred. Clinicians working with local public health departments must arrange to have specimens from patients under investigation PUIs sent to the CDC laboratory.", "Clinicians working with local public health departments must arrange to have specimens from patients under investigation PUIs sent to the CDC laboratory. At this time, the CDC has the only laboratory that can definitively test for 2019-nCoV, though laboratory testing capacity is being rapidly expanded. Polymerase chain reaction PCR assays conducted on samples from a patient's upper and lower respiratory tracts will be used to confirm potential cases.", "Polymerase chain reaction PCR assays conducted on samples from a patient's upper and lower respiratory tracts will be used to confirm potential cases. In addition, serum antibody titers can be analyzed for confirmation of infection or evidence of immunity. Up-to-date information about the needed specimens and handling requirements to test for 2019-nCoV are available on the CDC website.", "Up-to-date information about the needed specimens and handling requirements to test for 2019-nCoV are available on the CDC website. 35 Like other related coronaviruses, patients with 2019-nCoV frequently present with non-specific symptoms resembling that of influenza. Physicians may consider differential diagnoses related to a wide variety of respiratory infections.", "Physicians may consider differential diagnoses related to a wide variety of respiratory infections. In order to relate these symptoms to 2019-nCoV, it is imperative that the identification of a potential exposure event epidemiologic risk factor within 14 days of symptom onset is made so that a more focused work-up for 2019-nCoV can be completed. Although the likelihood of coinfection of 2019-nCoV and another respiratory virus is thought to be low, a positive finding of another respiratory pathogen does not exclude the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV.", "Although the likelihood of coinfection of 2019-nCoV and another respiratory virus is thought to be low, a positive finding of another respiratory pathogen does not exclude the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. Many commercially available respiratory panels include \"coronavirus\" in the results, but neither a positive nor a negative finding on these panels should be used to include or exclude a diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. Supportive care with appropriate infection control is the mainstay of current CDC treatment guidelines for 2019-nCoV.", "Supportive care with appropriate infection control is the mainstay of current CDC treatment guidelines for 2019-nCoV. There are not yet any approved antiviral treatments for 2019-nCoV. Emergency Use Authorizations EUA for compassionate use cases may be forthcoming from the US federal government for normally unapproved treatments. Supportive treatment predominantly includes respiratory support, hydration, and antipyretics.", "Supportive treatment predominantly includes respiratory support, hydration, and antipyretics. General treatment for severe cases should focus on the preservation of vital organ function. In the future, antiviral medications may be available. If a secondary bacterial infection such as pneumonia develops, targeted antibiotics are indicated.", "If a secondary bacterial infection such as pneumonia develops, targeted antibiotics are indicated. Prevention of 2019-nCoV transmission, like any other infectious agent, involves minimizing risk of exposure. Vaccines are under accelerated development and may be useful in the future for post-exposure prophylaxis.", "Vaccines are under accelerated development and may be useful in the future for post-exposure prophylaxis. Healthcare personnel are at increased risk and should practice standard, droplet, and airborne precautions when encountering an infected person, a PUI, or any symptomatic close contacts. Healthcare workers handling specimens should also adhere to CDC guidelines and should not attempt to perform any virus isolation or characterization.", "Healthcare workers handling specimens should also adhere to CDC guidelines and should not attempt to perform any virus isolation or characterization. Fever screening has been implemented at numerous airports, including major international hubs within Asia and the US. The efficacy of this intervention is not well documented, however, as some infected persons may be afebrile and disease transmission might occur prior to symptom onset.", "The efficacy of this intervention is not well documented, however, as some infected persons may be afebrile and disease transmission might occur prior to symptom onset. 27 In addition, people can artificially lower their temperature readings, e.g., by applying ice to their foreheads. As outlined above, admission criteria for 2019-nCoV are similar to that of other patients.", "As outlined above, admission criteria for 2019-nCoV are similar to that of other patients. If patients do not meet medical criteria for hospitalization, they may be discharged home with isolation precautions and continued observation. EPs must notify local public health authorities so appropriate monitoring and community protective measures can be instituted.", "EPs must notify local public health authorities so appropriate monitoring and community protective measures can be instituted. The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool was initially developed for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies. 18 This novel tool for suspected 2019-nCoV patients Figure 1 provides frontline clinicians with a simple algorithm to manage an emerging disease.", "18 This novel tool for suspected 2019-nCoV patients Figure 1 provides frontline clinicians with a simple algorithm to manage an emerging disease. Identification of exposed patients with an epidemiologic risk factor within 14 days of symptom onset is a crucial first step. An automatic prompt in the electronic health record can be useful in assisting clinicians with early identification of patients at risk.", "An automatic prompt in the electronic health record can be useful in assisting clinicians with early identification of patients at risk. Case definitions promulgated by the WHO 24 and CDC 33 provide useful comprehensive definitions that have been incorporated into the 3I Tool. The 2019-nCoV Tool provides an accurate, summarized algorithm to immediately, and effectively manage suspected patients until additional resources can be consulted.", "The 2019-nCoV Tool provides an accurate, summarized algorithm to immediately, and effectively manage suspected patients until additional resources can be consulted. Patients who do not have an exposure risk or any symptoms may be triaged normally. However, before making patient contact, providers must first apply the Vital Sign Zero concept.", "However, before making patient contact, providers must first apply the Vital Sign Zero concept. 36 Vital Sign Zero is a preliminary, non-contact assessment i.e., performed prior to touching a patient to take traditional vital signs to first determine whether specific PPE is indicated before the examination commences. By taking the additional time to complete this assessment, risk of exposure and further transmission can be minimized.", "By taking the additional time to complete this assessment, risk of exposure and further transmission can be minimized. while in the treatment facility should be started and maintained to assist with the possibility of contact tracing. Following isolation, physicians should immediately inform the appropriate authorities.", "Following isolation, physicians should immediately inform the appropriate authorities. Patients who do not meet medical criteria for admission can be isolated at home during the evaluation phase. 37 Health department officials can help prevent transmission in isolated patients by providing in-home monitoring and implementing appropriate exposure-control measures.", "37 Health department officials can help prevent transmission in isolated patients by providing in-home monitoring and implementing appropriate exposure-control measures. Providers in the prehospital setting who have a high likelihood of encountering 2019-nCoV patients, such as those near international ports of entry, should adhere to established exposure control guidelines. 38 Along with appropriate PPE, providers should also carry thermometers to quantify any fever.", "38 Along with appropriate PPE, providers should also carry thermometers to quantify any fever. In the US, providers should contact the appropriate CDC quarantine station upon isolation of infected or suspected patients, especially those from Wuhan, China or other regions with widespread disease, who report symptoms in the last 14 days. As for other infectious diseases, assessing travel history is essential.", "As for other infectious diseases, assessing travel history is essential. Dispatch protocols have been instituted to facilitate identification of callers to 911 or the country-equivalent emergency number prior to prehospital personnel arrival. 39 In addition, CDC has promulgated EMS guidelines for prehospital PPE, transportation of PUIs, vehicle decontamination, and 911 Public Safety Answering Points PSAPs for 2019-nCoV.", "39 In addition, CDC has promulgated EMS guidelines for prehospital PPE, transportation of PUIs, vehicle decontamination, and 911 Public Safety Answering Points PSAPs for 2019-nCoV. 40 2019-nCoV is an emerging infectious disease with rapidly evolving features, the full scope of which will be defined over time. Prior outbreaks of coronaviruses can help inform needed actions in the short term to assist with both treatment of individual patients and prevention of global disease spread.", "Prior outbreaks of coronaviruses can help inform needed actions in the short term to assist with both treatment of individual patients and prevention of global disease spread. This adaptation of the Identify-Isolate-Inform Tool serves as a resource for healthcare workers who need to make clear, rapid assessments when confronted with potential patients. The concise nature of the 2019-nCoV 3I Tool allows for the rapid and effective management of a novel disease by healthcare providers." ]

[ "2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is an emerging infectious disease closely related to MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV that was first reported in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. As of January 2020, cases of 2019-nCoV are continuing to be reported in other Eastern Asian countries as well as in the United States, Europe, Australia, and numerous other countries. An unusually high volume of domestic and international travel corresponding to the beginning of the 2020 Chinese New Year complicated initial identification and containment of infected persons.", "An unusually high volume of domestic and international travel corresponding to the beginning of the 2020 Chinese New Year complicated initial identification and containment of infected persons. Due to the rapidly rising number of cases and reported deaths, all countries should be considered at risk of imported 2019-nCoV. Therefore, it is essential for prehospital, clinic, and emergency department personnel to be able to rapidly assess 2019-nCoV risk and take immediate actions if indicated.", "Therefore, it is essential for prehospital, clinic, and emergency department personnel to be able to rapidly assess 2019-nCoV risk and take immediate actions if indicated. The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool, originally conceived for the initial detection and management of Ebola virus and later adjusted for other infectious agents, can be adapted for any emerging infectious disease. This paper reports a modification of the 3I Tool for use in the initial detection and management of patients under investigation for 2019-nCoV.", "This paper reports a modification of the 3I Tool for use in the initial detection and management of patients under investigation for 2019-nCoV. After initial assessment for symptoms and epidemiological risk factors, including travel to affected areas and exposure to confirmed 2019-nCoV patients within 14 days, patients are classified in a risk-stratified system. Upon confirmation of a suspected 2019-nCoV case, affected persons must immediately be placed in airborne infection isolation and the appropriate public health agencies notified.", "Upon confirmation of a suspected 2019-nCoV case, affected persons must immediately be placed in airborne infection isolation and the appropriate public health agencies notified. This modified 3I Tool will assist emergency and primary care clinicians, as well as out-of-hospital providers, in effectively managing persons with suspected or confirmed 2019-nCoV. Text: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is a novel respiratory disease first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019.", "Text: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is a novel respiratory disease first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. 1 Chinese health officials were originally investigating a sudden increase in cases of pneumonia which were later determined to be linked to 2019-nCoV. While most cases originated within mainland China, the disease spread to neighboring countries including Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan, and later to the United States, Europe, and Australia.", "While most cases originated within mainland China, the disease spread to neighboring countries including Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan, and later to the United States, Europe, and Australia. A near real-time updated tracking website for cases and locations worldwide, along with reported deaths is available. 2 Chinese health authorities have sequenced 2019-nCoV and freely shared its genetic profile online.", "2 Chinese health authorities have sequenced 2019-nCoV and freely shared its genetic profile online. 3, 4 Additionally, on January 28, 2020, an Australian laboratory reported growing the virus from a patient sample. As of January 30, 2020, there have been at least 9,776 persons infected and 213 verified deaths.", "As of January 30, 2020, there have been at least 9,776 persons infected and 213 verified deaths. 2 These numbers are likely underestimates due to the limited information available regarding incubation time, transmissibility, and virus origin. The What was the research question?", "The What was the research question? Investigators adapted the \"Identify, Isolate, Inform\" 3I Tool for use in suspected cases of 2019-nCoV. What was the major finding of the study? A novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool is designed for frontline clinicians in the management of suspected patients.", "A novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool is designed for frontline clinicians in the management of suspected patients. This 2019-nCoV 3I adaptation will aid healthcare providers most likely to encounter the disease in the containment and effective treatment of patients. age distribution of these verified deaths is currently not available.", "age distribution of these verified deaths is currently not available. One preliminary, small-scale study of 41 patients in Wuhan China, reported 6 deaths 15% mortality with a median age of 49.0 years. 5 Additionally, transmission of the virus has reportedly occurred in healthcare facilities in Wuhan City, raising concerns of spread to healthcare workers, as was seen during prior outbreaks of the novel coronaviruses, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS .", "5 Additionally, transmission of the virus has reportedly occurred in healthcare facilities in Wuhan City, raising concerns of spread to healthcare workers, as was seen during prior outbreaks of the novel coronaviruses, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS . Due to the dynamic nature of the outbreak, exposure criteria may change depending on where new cases of 2019-nCoV are detected, the degree of transmissibility, and when additional information regarding the origin of the virus is discovered and reported. On January 15, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC confirmed the first known imported case of 2019-nCoV in the US state of Washington.", "On January 15, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC confirmed the first known imported case of 2019-nCoV in the US state of Washington. The patient had recently returned from Wuhan City, where he likely contracted the disease. Chicago health authorities reported a second US case on January 24, 2020.", "Chicago health authorities reported a second US case on January 24, 2020. This was quickly followed by additional imported cases reported in Orange and Los Angeles Counties, California on January 26, 2020. Additional suspected cases continue to be evaluated.", "Additional suspected cases continue to be evaluated. On January 30, 2020, the CDC reported the first local transmission in the US between members in a household. On the same day, the World Health Organization declared 2019-nCoV to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern PHEIC .", "On the same day, the World Health Organization declared 2019-nCoV to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern PHEIC . 6 On January 31, 2020, the US Department of Health and Human Services declared coronavirus a public health emergency. 7 Healthy individuals and those with mild illness may be asymptomatic, while others may have more pronounced symptoms of fever or lower respiratory illness.", "7 Healthy individuals and those with mild illness may be asymptomatic, while others may have more pronounced symptoms of fever or lower respiratory illness. Upon identification of a suspected patient, that individual should immediately be isolated with airborne precautions. Further workup and laboratory confirmation can then proceed.", "Further workup and laboratory confirmation can then proceed. Emergency physicians EPs , emergency medical services EMS personnel, and other healthcare workers who encounter patients with suspected 2019-nCoV infection must inform the appropriate authorities, including but not limited to hospital infection control and local or state public health agencies. Healthcare workers must follow on-going developments related to the outbreak, especially new information concerning detection and management.", "Healthcare workers must follow on-going developments related to the outbreak, especially new information concerning detection and management. 8, 9 The 3I Tool outlined in this paper is consistent with current US CDC guidelines and can be applied in a variety of settings such as those in emergency departments, urgent-care clinics, physicians' offices, and prehospital settings. This paper will first briefly review 2019-nCoV and then present the novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool as modified from its initial conception for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies.", "This paper will first briefly review 2019-nCoV and then present the novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool as modified from its initial conception for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies. 18 Coronavirus 2019-nCoV infection commonly presents with signs and symptoms of pneumonia or as a nonspecific lower respiratory illness, with coughing or difficulty breathing accompanied by fever. 5, 19, 20 Fever and cough constitute the most common presentations.", "5, 19, 20 Fever and cough constitute the most common presentations. However, patients may have other respiratory symptoms, sore throat, nasal congestion, malaise, myalgia, and headache. Bilateral infiltrates may be seen on chest X-ray. Severe cases may present with sepsis and even shock.", "Severe cases may present with sepsis and even shock. Conversely, some patients may present as only mildly ill or asymptomatic altogether. 21 To date, patients with underlying medical conditions and the elderly are more likely to become severely ill, require hospitalization, and ultimately die.", "21 To date, patients with underlying medical conditions and the elderly are more likely to become severely ill, require hospitalization, and ultimately die. 22 Early predictions for incubation time are between 2 and 14 days, based on data from similar coronaviruses. The 14-day criterion for epidemiological risk assumes the longest estimated incubation time.", "The 14-day criterion for epidemiological risk assumes the longest estimated incubation time. 23 In addition, the World Health Organization WHO has created its own interim case definition. 24 By definition, the main features of a novel virus, for example, how it is transmitted, will not be immediately known.", "24 By definition, the main features of a novel virus, for example, how it is transmitted, will not be immediately known. However, as with the development of any 3I Tool, it is essential to understand specific characteristics of the disease. In the case of a novel virus such as 2019-CoV, this is challenging since information is rapidly evolving and the science is not yet fully understood.", "In the case of a novel virus such as 2019-CoV, this is challenging since information is rapidly evolving and the science is not yet fully understood. It is possible that the virus will undergo mutations over time that could substantially change its The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus Koenig et al. features.", "features. Nevertheless, an appreciation of the key concepts that drive evidence-based management is beneficial Table 1 . Management guidance will likely change over time. With the initial discovery of a new potential public health threat, it will likely be unclear how patients become sick.", "With the initial discovery of a new potential public health threat, it will likely be unclear how patients become sick. For example, rather than a contagion, there could be a contaminant or a toxin responsible for signs and symptoms. In this case, the possibility of an environmental toxin in the Wuhan Market was a consideration early on when limited to no human-tohuman transmission was reported.", "In this case, the possibility of an environmental toxin in the Wuhan Market was a consideration early on when limited to no human-tohuman transmission was reported. The mode of transmission has implications for the types of personal protective equipment PPE needed to protect healthcare providers in the prehospital, clinic, and hospital settings. 25 In addition, patients may need decontamination after exposure to certain toxins.", "25 In addition, patients may need decontamination after exposure to certain toxins. 26 Another important consideration for application of the 3I Tool is whether the disease is contagious prior to symptom onset like measles or only after symptoms develop like Ebola . A January 30, 2020 letter to the New England Journal of Medicine describes a purported confirmed instance of transmission from an asymptomatic individual.", "A January 30, 2020 letter to the New England Journal of Medicine describes a purported confirmed instance of transmission from an asymptomatic individual. Researchers state that, before symptom onset, the primary case infected two individuals, one of which infected two additional colleagues. 27 Subsequent investigation suggested that the source patient did have mild symptoms and had taken an antipyretic, calling this reported asymptomatic transmission into question.", "27 Subsequent investigation suggested that the source patient did have mild symptoms and had taken an antipyretic, calling this reported asymptomatic transmission into question. While quarantine may not be feasible and can have unintended consequences, 28, 29, 30 it is a public health tool that can be considered in cases when disease is transmissible before symptom onset. 30 Conversely, if a disease is known not to be transmissible prior to symptom onset, asymptomatic exposed patients must be monitored, but do not require quarantine or isolation unless they develop symptoms.", "30 Conversely, if a disease is known not to be transmissible prior to symptom onset, asymptomatic exposed patients must be monitored, but do not require quarantine or isolation unless they develop symptoms. Initially, it may be unclear whether an infectious agent occurred naturally or was deliberately or accidentally released. In this case, a BSL-4 laboratory studying coronaviruses was located approximately 32 kilometers away from the market where initial exposures were felt to occur.", "In this case, a BSL-4 laboratory studying coronaviruses was located approximately 32 kilometers away from the market where initial exposures were felt to occur. 31 Recall that in 2001, the anthrax letter attacks were initially thought to be naturally occurring. Once determined to be bioterrorism, management of the event was similar to that for a chemical exposure with a sudden impact, defined scene, and need for a rapid response and decontamination on site.", "Once determined to be bioterrorism, management of the event was similar to that for a chemical exposure with a sudden impact, defined scene, and need for a rapid response and decontamination on site. This differed from the WHO's modeling predicting an aerosolized release that would result in an incubation period with 100,000 or more persons exposed rather than the 22 people who contracted anthrax in 2001. 32 By understanding the key features of a novel disease, healthcare workers can take evidence-based measures to protect themselves, optimize individual patient management, and prevent further disease spread.", "32 By understanding the key features of a novel disease, healthcare workers can take evidence-based measures to protect themselves, optimize individual patient management, and prevent further disease spread. It is currently unclear how 2019-nCoV is spread, but it is suspected to be transmitted through contact with infected respiratory secretions, like other known coronaviruses. There are instances of sustained human-to-human transmission across generations of cases, especially near the epicenter in Wuhan City.", "There are instances of sustained human-to-human transmission across generations of cases, especially near the epicenter in Wuhan City. 21 Current evidence suggests that close contact with an infected person is a major factor in disease transmission. CDC defines \"close contact\" 33 as being in or within two meters of an area with a confirmed patient or being directly exposed to infectious secretions without appropriate PPE.", "CDC defines \"close contact\" 33 as being in or within two meters of an area with a confirmed patient or being directly exposed to infectious secretions without appropriate PPE. Healthcare facilities in China have reported spread from person to person. In addition, some mildly ill or potentially even asymptomatic patients may have a higher chance of spreading the disease to others as they may be less likely to seek medical care.", "In addition, some mildly ill or potentially even asymptomatic patients may have a higher chance of spreading the disease to others as they may be less likely to seek medical care. 34 The possibility that patients may be infectious prior to symptom onset further compounds the difficulty of containing the virus and effectively preventing transmission. The current majority of 2019-nCoV cases have been within China and its bordering countries.", "The current majority of 2019-nCoV cases have been within China and its bordering countries. 2 Persons with recent travel within 14 days to Wuhan City or another region with widespread disease, or exposure to a patient under investigation, are considered to have an epidemiologic risk factor and should be assessed for signs and symptoms of a viral illness such as fever and respiratory symptoms. Coronavirus is a zoonotic virus The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus that is transmitted to humans via contact with infected animals.", "Coronavirus is a zoonotic virus The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus that is transmitted to humans via contact with infected animals. Preliminary reports suggest the disease may have originated in a seafood and live animal market in Wuhan City, but it is still unknown how or whether such transmission occurred. Clinicians working with local public health departments must arrange to have specimens from patients under investigation PUIs sent to the CDC laboratory.", "Clinicians working with local public health departments must arrange to have specimens from patients under investigation PUIs sent to the CDC laboratory. At this time, the CDC has the only laboratory that can definitively test for 2019-nCoV, though laboratory testing capacity is being rapidly expanded. Polymerase chain reaction PCR assays conducted on samples from a patient's upper and lower respiratory tracts will be used to confirm potential cases.", "Polymerase chain reaction PCR assays conducted on samples from a patient's upper and lower respiratory tracts will be used to confirm potential cases. In addition, serum antibody titers can be analyzed for confirmation of infection or evidence of immunity. Up-to-date information about the needed specimens and handling requirements to test for 2019-nCoV are available on the CDC website.", "Up-to-date information about the needed specimens and handling requirements to test for 2019-nCoV are available on the CDC website. 35 Like other related coronaviruses, patients with 2019-nCoV frequently present with non-specific symptoms resembling that of influenza. Physicians may consider differential diagnoses related to a wide variety of respiratory infections.", "Physicians may consider differential diagnoses related to a wide variety of respiratory infections. In order to relate these symptoms to 2019-nCoV, it is imperative that the identification of a potential exposure event epidemiologic risk factor within 14 days of symptom onset is made so that a more focused work-up for 2019-nCoV can be completed. Although the likelihood of coinfection of 2019-nCoV and another respiratory virus is thought to be low, a positive finding of another respiratory pathogen does not exclude the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV.", "Although the likelihood of coinfection of 2019-nCoV and another respiratory virus is thought to be low, a positive finding of another respiratory pathogen does not exclude the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. Many commercially available respiratory panels include \"coronavirus\" in the results, but neither a positive nor a negative finding on these panels should be used to include or exclude a diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. Supportive care with appropriate infection control is the mainstay of current CDC treatment guidelines for 2019-nCoV.", "Supportive care with appropriate infection control is the mainstay of current CDC treatment guidelines for 2019-nCoV. There are not yet any approved antiviral treatments for 2019-nCoV. Emergency Use Authorizations EUA for compassionate use cases may be forthcoming from the US federal government for normally unapproved treatments. Supportive treatment predominantly includes respiratory support, hydration, and antipyretics.", "Supportive treatment predominantly includes respiratory support, hydration, and antipyretics. General treatment for severe cases should focus on the preservation of vital organ function. In the future, antiviral medications may be available. If a secondary bacterial infection such as pneumonia develops, targeted antibiotics are indicated.", "If a secondary bacterial infection such as pneumonia develops, targeted antibiotics are indicated. Prevention of 2019-nCoV transmission, like any other infectious agent, involves minimizing risk of exposure. Vaccines are under accelerated development and may be useful in the future for post-exposure prophylaxis.", "Vaccines are under accelerated development and may be useful in the future for post-exposure prophylaxis. Healthcare personnel are at increased risk and should practice standard, droplet, and airborne precautions when encountering an infected person, a PUI, or any symptomatic close contacts. Healthcare workers handling specimens should also adhere to CDC guidelines and should not attempt to perform any virus isolation or characterization.", "Healthcare workers handling specimens should also adhere to CDC guidelines and should not attempt to perform any virus isolation or characterization. Fever screening has been implemented at numerous airports, including major international hubs within Asia and the US. The efficacy of this intervention is not well documented, however, as some infected persons may be afebrile and disease transmission might occur prior to symptom onset.", "The efficacy of this intervention is not well documented, however, as some infected persons may be afebrile and disease transmission might occur prior to symptom onset. 27 In addition, people can artificially lower their temperature readings, e.g., by applying ice to their foreheads. As outlined above, admission criteria for 2019-nCoV are similar to that of other patients.", "As outlined above, admission criteria for 2019-nCoV are similar to that of other patients. If patients do not meet medical criteria for hospitalization, they may be discharged home with isolation precautions and continued observation. EPs must notify local public health authorities so appropriate monitoring and community protective measures can be instituted.", "EPs must notify local public health authorities so appropriate monitoring and community protective measures can be instituted. The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool was initially developed for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies. 18 This novel tool for suspected 2019-nCoV patients Figure 1 provides frontline clinicians with a simple algorithm to manage an emerging disease.", "18 This novel tool for suspected 2019-nCoV patients Figure 1 provides frontline clinicians with a simple algorithm to manage an emerging disease. Identification of exposed patients with an epidemiologic risk factor within 14 days of symptom onset is a crucial first step. An automatic prompt in the electronic health record can be useful in assisting clinicians with early identification of patients at risk.", "An automatic prompt in the electronic health record can be useful in assisting clinicians with early identification of patients at risk. Case definitions promulgated by the WHO 24 and CDC 33 provide useful comprehensive definitions that have been incorporated into the 3I Tool. The 2019-nCoV Tool provides an accurate, summarized algorithm to immediately, and effectively manage suspected patients until additional resources can be consulted.", "The 2019-nCoV Tool provides an accurate, summarized algorithm to immediately, and effectively manage suspected patients until additional resources can be consulted. Patients who do not have an exposure risk or any symptoms may be triaged normally. However, before making patient contact, providers must first apply the Vital Sign Zero concept.", "However, before making patient contact, providers must first apply the Vital Sign Zero concept. 36 Vital Sign Zero is a preliminary, non-contact assessment i.e., performed prior to touching a patient to take traditional vital signs to first determine whether specific PPE is indicated before the examination commences. By taking the additional time to complete this assessment, risk of exposure and further transmission can be minimized.", "By taking the additional time to complete this assessment, risk of exposure and further transmission can be minimized. while in the treatment facility should be started and maintained to assist with the possibility of contact tracing. Following isolation, physicians should immediately inform the appropriate authorities.", "Following isolation, physicians should immediately inform the appropriate authorities. Patients who do not meet medical criteria for admission can be isolated at home during the evaluation phase. 37 Health department officials can help prevent transmission in isolated patients by providing in-home monitoring and implementing appropriate exposure-control measures.", "37 Health department officials can help prevent transmission in isolated patients by providing in-home monitoring and implementing appropriate exposure-control measures. Providers in the prehospital setting who have a high likelihood of encountering 2019-nCoV patients, such as those near international ports of entry, should adhere to established exposure control guidelines. 38 Along with appropriate PPE, providers should also carry thermometers to quantify any fever.", "38 Along with appropriate PPE, providers should also carry thermometers to quantify any fever. In the US, providers should contact the appropriate CDC quarantine station upon isolation of infected or suspected patients, especially those from Wuhan, China or other regions with widespread disease, who report symptoms in the last 14 days. As for other infectious diseases, assessing travel history is essential.", "As for other infectious diseases, assessing travel history is essential. Dispatch protocols have been instituted to facilitate identification of callers to 911 or the country-equivalent emergency number prior to prehospital personnel arrival. 39 In addition, CDC has promulgated EMS guidelines for prehospital PPE, transportation of PUIs, vehicle decontamination, and 911 Public Safety Answering Points PSAPs for 2019-nCoV.", "39 In addition, CDC has promulgated EMS guidelines for prehospital PPE, transportation of PUIs, vehicle decontamination, and 911 Public Safety Answering Points PSAPs for 2019-nCoV. 40 2019-nCoV is an emerging infectious disease with rapidly evolving features, the full scope of which will be defined over time. Prior outbreaks of coronaviruses can help inform needed actions in the short term to assist with both treatment of individual patients and prevention of global disease spread.", "Prior outbreaks of coronaviruses can help inform needed actions in the short term to assist with both treatment of individual patients and prevention of global disease spread. This adaptation of the Identify-Isolate-Inform Tool serves as a resource for healthcare workers who need to make clear, rapid assessments when confronted with potential patients. The concise nature of the 2019-nCoV 3I Tool allows for the rapid and effective management of a novel disease by healthcare providers." ]

[ "2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is an emerging infectious disease closely related to MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV that was first reported in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. As of January 2020, cases of 2019-nCoV are continuing to be reported in other Eastern Asian countries as well as in the United States, Europe, Australia, and numerous other countries. An unusually high volume of domestic and international travel corresponding to the beginning of the 2020 Chinese New Year complicated initial identification and containment of infected persons.", "An unusually high volume of domestic and international travel corresponding to the beginning of the 2020 Chinese New Year complicated initial identification and containment of infected persons. Due to the rapidly rising number of cases and reported deaths, all countries should be considered at risk of imported 2019-nCoV. Therefore, it is essential for prehospital, clinic, and emergency department personnel to be able to rapidly assess 2019-nCoV risk and take immediate actions if indicated.", "Therefore, it is essential for prehospital, clinic, and emergency department personnel to be able to rapidly assess 2019-nCoV risk and take immediate actions if indicated. The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool, originally conceived for the initial detection and management of Ebola virus and later adjusted for other infectious agents, can be adapted for any emerging infectious disease. This paper reports a modification of the 3I Tool for use in the initial detection and management of patients under investigation for 2019-nCoV.", "This paper reports a modification of the 3I Tool for use in the initial detection and management of patients under investigation for 2019-nCoV. After initial assessment for symptoms and epidemiological risk factors, including travel to affected areas and exposure to confirmed 2019-nCoV patients within 14 days, patients are classified in a risk-stratified system. Upon confirmation of a suspected 2019-nCoV case, affected persons must immediately be placed in airborne infection isolation and the appropriate public health agencies notified.", "Upon confirmation of a suspected 2019-nCoV case, affected persons must immediately be placed in airborne infection isolation and the appropriate public health agencies notified. This modified 3I Tool will assist emergency and primary care clinicians, as well as out-of-hospital providers, in effectively managing persons with suspected or confirmed 2019-nCoV. Text: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is a novel respiratory disease first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019.", "Text: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is a novel respiratory disease first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. 1 Chinese health officials were originally investigating a sudden increase in cases of pneumonia which were later determined to be linked to 2019-nCoV. While most cases originated within mainland China, the disease spread to neighboring countries including Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan, and later to the United States, Europe, and Australia.", "While most cases originated within mainland China, the disease spread to neighboring countries including Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan, and later to the United States, Europe, and Australia. A near real-time updated tracking website for cases and locations worldwide, along with reported deaths is available. 2 Chinese health authorities have sequenced 2019-nCoV and freely shared its genetic profile online.", "2 Chinese health authorities have sequenced 2019-nCoV and freely shared its genetic profile online. 3, 4 Additionally, on January 28, 2020, an Australian laboratory reported growing the virus from a patient sample. As of January 30, 2020, there have been at least 9,776 persons infected and 213 verified deaths.", "As of January 30, 2020, there have been at least 9,776 persons infected and 213 verified deaths. 2 These numbers are likely underestimates due to the limited information available regarding incubation time, transmissibility, and virus origin. The What was the research question?", "The What was the research question? Investigators adapted the \"Identify, Isolate, Inform\" 3I Tool for use in suspected cases of 2019-nCoV. What was the major finding of the study? A novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool is designed for frontline clinicians in the management of suspected patients.", "A novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool is designed for frontline clinicians in the management of suspected patients. This 2019-nCoV 3I adaptation will aid healthcare providers most likely to encounter the disease in the containment and effective treatment of patients. age distribution of these verified deaths is currently not available.", "age distribution of these verified deaths is currently not available. One preliminary, small-scale study of 41 patients in Wuhan China, reported 6 deaths 15% mortality with a median age of 49.0 years. 5 Additionally, transmission of the virus has reportedly occurred in healthcare facilities in Wuhan City, raising concerns of spread to healthcare workers, as was seen during prior outbreaks of the novel coronaviruses, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS .", "5 Additionally, transmission of the virus has reportedly occurred in healthcare facilities in Wuhan City, raising concerns of spread to healthcare workers, as was seen during prior outbreaks of the novel coronaviruses, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS . Due to the dynamic nature of the outbreak, exposure criteria may change depending on where new cases of 2019-nCoV are detected, the degree of transmissibility, and when additional information regarding the origin of the virus is discovered and reported. On January 15, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC confirmed the first known imported case of 2019-nCoV in the US state of Washington.", "On January 15, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC confirmed the first known imported case of 2019-nCoV in the US state of Washington. The patient had recently returned from Wuhan City, where he likely contracted the disease. Chicago health authorities reported a second US case on January 24, 2020.", "Chicago health authorities reported a second US case on January 24, 2020. This was quickly followed by additional imported cases reported in Orange and Los Angeles Counties, California on January 26, 2020. Additional suspected cases continue to be evaluated.", "Additional suspected cases continue to be evaluated. On January 30, 2020, the CDC reported the first local transmission in the US between members in a household. On the same day, the World Health Organization declared 2019-nCoV to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern PHEIC .", "On the same day, the World Health Organization declared 2019-nCoV to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern PHEIC . 6 On January 31, 2020, the US Department of Health and Human Services declared coronavirus a public health emergency. 7 Healthy individuals and those with mild illness may be asymptomatic, while others may have more pronounced symptoms of fever or lower respiratory illness.", "7 Healthy individuals and those with mild illness may be asymptomatic, while others may have more pronounced symptoms of fever or lower respiratory illness. Upon identification of a suspected patient, that individual should immediately be isolated with airborne precautions. Further workup and laboratory confirmation can then proceed.", "Further workup and laboratory confirmation can then proceed. Emergency physicians EPs , emergency medical services EMS personnel, and other healthcare workers who encounter patients with suspected 2019-nCoV infection must inform the appropriate authorities, including but not limited to hospital infection control and local or state public health agencies. Healthcare workers must follow on-going developments related to the outbreak, especially new information concerning detection and management.", "Healthcare workers must follow on-going developments related to the outbreak, especially new information concerning detection and management. 8, 9 The 3I Tool outlined in this paper is consistent with current US CDC guidelines and can be applied in a variety of settings such as those in emergency departments, urgent-care clinics, physicians' offices, and prehospital settings. This paper will first briefly review 2019-nCoV and then present the novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool as modified from its initial conception for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies.", "This paper will first briefly review 2019-nCoV and then present the novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool as modified from its initial conception for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies. 18 Coronavirus 2019-nCoV infection commonly presents with signs and symptoms of pneumonia or as a nonspecific lower respiratory illness, with coughing or difficulty breathing accompanied by fever. 5, 19, 20 Fever and cough constitute the most common presentations.", "5, 19, 20 Fever and cough constitute the most common presentations. However, patients may have other respiratory symptoms, sore throat, nasal congestion, malaise, myalgia, and headache. Bilateral infiltrates may be seen on chest X-ray. Severe cases may present with sepsis and even shock.", "Severe cases may present with sepsis and even shock. Conversely, some patients may present as only mildly ill or asymptomatic altogether. 21 To date, patients with underlying medical conditions and the elderly are more likely to become severely ill, require hospitalization, and ultimately die.", "21 To date, patients with underlying medical conditions and the elderly are more likely to become severely ill, require hospitalization, and ultimately die. 22 Early predictions for incubation time are between 2 and 14 days, based on data from similar coronaviruses. The 14-day criterion for epidemiological risk assumes the longest estimated incubation time.", "The 14-day criterion for epidemiological risk assumes the longest estimated incubation time. 23 In addition, the World Health Organization WHO has created its own interim case definition. 24 By definition, the main features of a novel virus, for example, how it is transmitted, will not be immediately known.", "24 By definition, the main features of a novel virus, for example, how it is transmitted, will not be immediately known. However, as with the development of any 3I Tool, it is essential to understand specific characteristics of the disease. In the case of a novel virus such as 2019-CoV, this is challenging since information is rapidly evolving and the science is not yet fully understood.", "In the case of a novel virus such as 2019-CoV, this is challenging since information is rapidly evolving and the science is not yet fully understood. It is possible that the virus will undergo mutations over time that could substantially change its The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus Koenig et al. features.", "features. Nevertheless, an appreciation of the key concepts that drive evidence-based management is beneficial Table 1 . Management guidance will likely change over time. With the initial discovery of a new potential public health threat, it will likely be unclear how patients become sick.", "With the initial discovery of a new potential public health threat, it will likely be unclear how patients become sick. For example, rather than a contagion, there could be a contaminant or a toxin responsible for signs and symptoms. In this case, the possibility of an environmental toxin in the Wuhan Market was a consideration early on when limited to no human-tohuman transmission was reported.", "In this case, the possibility of an environmental toxin in the Wuhan Market was a consideration early on when limited to no human-tohuman transmission was reported. The mode of transmission has implications for the types of personal protective equipment PPE needed to protect healthcare providers in the prehospital, clinic, and hospital settings. 25 In addition, patients may need decontamination after exposure to certain toxins.", "25 In addition, patients may need decontamination after exposure to certain toxins. 26 Another important consideration for application of the 3I Tool is whether the disease is contagious prior to symptom onset like measles or only after symptoms develop like Ebola . A January 30, 2020 letter to the New England Journal of Medicine describes a purported confirmed instance of transmission from an asymptomatic individual.", "A January 30, 2020 letter to the New England Journal of Medicine describes a purported confirmed instance of transmission from an asymptomatic individual. Researchers state that, before symptom onset, the primary case infected two individuals, one of which infected two additional colleagues. 27 Subsequent investigation suggested that the source patient did have mild symptoms and had taken an antipyretic, calling this reported asymptomatic transmission into question.", "27 Subsequent investigation suggested that the source patient did have mild symptoms and had taken an antipyretic, calling this reported asymptomatic transmission into question. While quarantine may not be feasible and can have unintended consequences, 28, 29, 30 it is a public health tool that can be considered in cases when disease is transmissible before symptom onset. 30 Conversely, if a disease is known not to be transmissible prior to symptom onset, asymptomatic exposed patients must be monitored, but do not require quarantine or isolation unless they develop symptoms.", "30 Conversely, if a disease is known not to be transmissible prior to symptom onset, asymptomatic exposed patients must be monitored, but do not require quarantine or isolation unless they develop symptoms. Initially, it may be unclear whether an infectious agent occurred naturally or was deliberately or accidentally released. In this case, a BSL-4 laboratory studying coronaviruses was located approximately 32 kilometers away from the market where initial exposures were felt to occur.", "In this case, a BSL-4 laboratory studying coronaviruses was located approximately 32 kilometers away from the market where initial exposures were felt to occur. 31 Recall that in 2001, the anthrax letter attacks were initially thought to be naturally occurring. Once determined to be bioterrorism, management of the event was similar to that for a chemical exposure with a sudden impact, defined scene, and need for a rapid response and decontamination on site.", "Once determined to be bioterrorism, management of the event was similar to that for a chemical exposure with a sudden impact, defined scene, and need for a rapid response and decontamination on site. This differed from the WHO's modeling predicting an aerosolized release that would result in an incubation period with 100,000 or more persons exposed rather than the 22 people who contracted anthrax in 2001. 32 By understanding the key features of a novel disease, healthcare workers can take evidence-based measures to protect themselves, optimize individual patient management, and prevent further disease spread.", "32 By understanding the key features of a novel disease, healthcare workers can take evidence-based measures to protect themselves, optimize individual patient management, and prevent further disease spread. It is currently unclear how 2019-nCoV is spread, but it is suspected to be transmitted through contact with infected respiratory secretions, like other known coronaviruses. There are instances of sustained human-to-human transmission across generations of cases, especially near the epicenter in Wuhan City.", "There are instances of sustained human-to-human transmission across generations of cases, especially near the epicenter in Wuhan City. 21 Current evidence suggests that close contact with an infected person is a major factor in disease transmission. CDC defines \"close contact\" 33 as being in or within two meters of an area with a confirmed patient or being directly exposed to infectious secretions without appropriate PPE.", "CDC defines \"close contact\" 33 as being in or within two meters of an area with a confirmed patient or being directly exposed to infectious secretions without appropriate PPE. Healthcare facilities in China have reported spread from person to person. In addition, some mildly ill or potentially even asymptomatic patients may have a higher chance of spreading the disease to others as they may be less likely to seek medical care.", "In addition, some mildly ill or potentially even asymptomatic patients may have a higher chance of spreading the disease to others as they may be less likely to seek medical care. 34 The possibility that patients may be infectious prior to symptom onset further compounds the difficulty of containing the virus and effectively preventing transmission. The current majority of 2019-nCoV cases have been within China and its bordering countries.", "The current majority of 2019-nCoV cases have been within China and its bordering countries. 2 Persons with recent travel within 14 days to Wuhan City or another region with widespread disease, or exposure to a patient under investigation, are considered to have an epidemiologic risk factor and should be assessed for signs and symptoms of a viral illness such as fever and respiratory symptoms. Coronavirus is a zoonotic virus The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus that is transmitted to humans via contact with infected animals.", "Coronavirus is a zoonotic virus The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus that is transmitted to humans via contact with infected animals. Preliminary reports suggest the disease may have originated in a seafood and live animal market in Wuhan City, but it is still unknown how or whether such transmission occurred. Clinicians working with local public health departments must arrange to have specimens from patients under investigation PUIs sent to the CDC laboratory.", "Clinicians working with local public health departments must arrange to have specimens from patients under investigation PUIs sent to the CDC laboratory. At this time, the CDC has the only laboratory that can definitively test for 2019-nCoV, though laboratory testing capacity is being rapidly expanded. Polymerase chain reaction PCR assays conducted on samples from a patient's upper and lower respiratory tracts will be used to confirm potential cases.", "Polymerase chain reaction PCR assays conducted on samples from a patient's upper and lower respiratory tracts will be used to confirm potential cases. In addition, serum antibody titers can be analyzed for confirmation of infection or evidence of immunity. Up-to-date information about the needed specimens and handling requirements to test for 2019-nCoV are available on the CDC website.", "Up-to-date information about the needed specimens and handling requirements to test for 2019-nCoV are available on the CDC website. 35 Like other related coronaviruses, patients with 2019-nCoV frequently present with non-specific symptoms resembling that of influenza. Physicians may consider differential diagnoses related to a wide variety of respiratory infections.", "Physicians may consider differential diagnoses related to a wide variety of respiratory infections. In order to relate these symptoms to 2019-nCoV, it is imperative that the identification of a potential exposure event epidemiologic risk factor within 14 days of symptom onset is made so that a more focused work-up for 2019-nCoV can be completed. Although the likelihood of coinfection of 2019-nCoV and another respiratory virus is thought to be low, a positive finding of another respiratory pathogen does not exclude the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV.", "Although the likelihood of coinfection of 2019-nCoV and another respiratory virus is thought to be low, a positive finding of another respiratory pathogen does not exclude the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. Many commercially available respiratory panels include \"coronavirus\" in the results, but neither a positive nor a negative finding on these panels should be used to include or exclude a diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. Supportive care with appropriate infection control is the mainstay of current CDC treatment guidelines for 2019-nCoV.", "Supportive care with appropriate infection control is the mainstay of current CDC treatment guidelines for 2019-nCoV. There are not yet any approved antiviral treatments for 2019-nCoV. Emergency Use Authorizations EUA for compassionate use cases may be forthcoming from the US federal government for normally unapproved treatments. Supportive treatment predominantly includes respiratory support, hydration, and antipyretics.", "Supportive treatment predominantly includes respiratory support, hydration, and antipyretics. General treatment for severe cases should focus on the preservation of vital organ function. In the future, antiviral medications may be available. If a secondary bacterial infection such as pneumonia develops, targeted antibiotics are indicated.", "If a secondary bacterial infection such as pneumonia develops, targeted antibiotics are indicated. Prevention of 2019-nCoV transmission, like any other infectious agent, involves minimizing risk of exposure. Vaccines are under accelerated development and may be useful in the future for post-exposure prophylaxis.", "Vaccines are under accelerated development and may be useful in the future for post-exposure prophylaxis. Healthcare personnel are at increased risk and should practice standard, droplet, and airborne precautions when encountering an infected person, a PUI, or any symptomatic close contacts. Healthcare workers handling specimens should also adhere to CDC guidelines and should not attempt to perform any virus isolation or characterization.", "Healthcare workers handling specimens should also adhere to CDC guidelines and should not attempt to perform any virus isolation or characterization. Fever screening has been implemented at numerous airports, including major international hubs within Asia and the US. The efficacy of this intervention is not well documented, however, as some infected persons may be afebrile and disease transmission might occur prior to symptom onset.", "The efficacy of this intervention is not well documented, however, as some infected persons may be afebrile and disease transmission might occur prior to symptom onset. 27 In addition, people can artificially lower their temperature readings, e.g., by applying ice to their foreheads. As outlined above, admission criteria for 2019-nCoV are similar to that of other patients.", "As outlined above, admission criteria for 2019-nCoV are similar to that of other patients. If patients do not meet medical criteria for hospitalization, they may be discharged home with isolation precautions and continued observation. EPs must notify local public health authorities so appropriate monitoring and community protective measures can be instituted.", "EPs must notify local public health authorities so appropriate monitoring and community protective measures can be instituted. The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool was initially developed for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies. 18 This novel tool for suspected 2019-nCoV patients Figure 1 provides frontline clinicians with a simple algorithm to manage an emerging disease.", "18 This novel tool for suspected 2019-nCoV patients Figure 1 provides frontline clinicians with a simple algorithm to manage an emerging disease. Identification of exposed patients with an epidemiologic risk factor within 14 days of symptom onset is a crucial first step. An automatic prompt in the electronic health record can be useful in assisting clinicians with early identification of patients at risk.", "An automatic prompt in the electronic health record can be useful in assisting clinicians with early identification of patients at risk. Case definitions promulgated by the WHO 24 and CDC 33 provide useful comprehensive definitions that have been incorporated into the 3I Tool. The 2019-nCoV Tool provides an accurate, summarized algorithm to immediately, and effectively manage suspected patients until additional resources can be consulted.", "The 2019-nCoV Tool provides an accurate, summarized algorithm to immediately, and effectively manage suspected patients until additional resources can be consulted. Patients who do not have an exposure risk or any symptoms may be triaged normally. However, before making patient contact, providers must first apply the Vital Sign Zero concept.", "However, before making patient contact, providers must first apply the Vital Sign Zero concept. 36 Vital Sign Zero is a preliminary, non-contact assessment i.e., performed prior to touching a patient to take traditional vital signs to first determine whether specific PPE is indicated before the examination commences. By taking the additional time to complete this assessment, risk of exposure and further transmission can be minimized.", "By taking the additional time to complete this assessment, risk of exposure and further transmission can be minimized. while in the treatment facility should be started and maintained to assist with the possibility of contact tracing. Following isolation, physicians should immediately inform the appropriate authorities.", "Following isolation, physicians should immediately inform the appropriate authorities. Patients who do not meet medical criteria for admission can be isolated at home during the evaluation phase. 37 Health department officials can help prevent transmission in isolated patients by providing in-home monitoring and implementing appropriate exposure-control measures.", "37 Health department officials can help prevent transmission in isolated patients by providing in-home monitoring and implementing appropriate exposure-control measures. Providers in the prehospital setting who have a high likelihood of encountering 2019-nCoV patients, such as those near international ports of entry, should adhere to established exposure control guidelines. 38 Along with appropriate PPE, providers should also carry thermometers to quantify any fever.", "38 Along with appropriate PPE, providers should also carry thermometers to quantify any fever. In the US, providers should contact the appropriate CDC quarantine station upon isolation of infected or suspected patients, especially those from Wuhan, China or other regions with widespread disease, who report symptoms in the last 14 days. As for other infectious diseases, assessing travel history is essential.", "As for other infectious diseases, assessing travel history is essential. Dispatch protocols have been instituted to facilitate identification of callers to 911 or the country-equivalent emergency number prior to prehospital personnel arrival. 39 In addition, CDC has promulgated EMS guidelines for prehospital PPE, transportation of PUIs, vehicle decontamination, and 911 Public Safety Answering Points PSAPs for 2019-nCoV.", "39 In addition, CDC has promulgated EMS guidelines for prehospital PPE, transportation of PUIs, vehicle decontamination, and 911 Public Safety Answering Points PSAPs for 2019-nCoV. 40 2019-nCoV is an emerging infectious disease with rapidly evolving features, the full scope of which will be defined over time. Prior outbreaks of coronaviruses can help inform needed actions in the short term to assist with both treatment of individual patients and prevention of global disease spread.", "Prior outbreaks of coronaviruses can help inform needed actions in the short term to assist with both treatment of individual patients and prevention of global disease spread. This adaptation of the Identify-Isolate-Inform Tool serves as a resource for healthcare workers who need to make clear, rapid assessments when confronted with potential patients. The concise nature of the 2019-nCoV 3I Tool allows for the rapid and effective management of a novel disease by healthcare providers." ]

[ "2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is an emerging infectious disease closely related to MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV that was first reported in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. As of January 2020, cases of 2019-nCoV are continuing to be reported in other Eastern Asian countries as well as in the United States, Europe, Australia, and numerous other countries. An unusually high volume of domestic and international travel corresponding to the beginning of the 2020 Chinese New Year complicated initial identification and containment of infected persons.", "An unusually high volume of domestic and international travel corresponding to the beginning of the 2020 Chinese New Year complicated initial identification and containment of infected persons. Due to the rapidly rising number of cases and reported deaths, all countries should be considered at risk of imported 2019-nCoV. Therefore, it is essential for prehospital, clinic, and emergency department personnel to be able to rapidly assess 2019-nCoV risk and take immediate actions if indicated.", "Therefore, it is essential for prehospital, clinic, and emergency department personnel to be able to rapidly assess 2019-nCoV risk and take immediate actions if indicated. The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool, originally conceived for the initial detection and management of Ebola virus and later adjusted for other infectious agents, can be adapted for any emerging infectious disease. This paper reports a modification of the 3I Tool for use in the initial detection and management of patients under investigation for 2019-nCoV.", "This paper reports a modification of the 3I Tool for use in the initial detection and management of patients under investigation for 2019-nCoV. After initial assessment for symptoms and epidemiological risk factors, including travel to affected areas and exposure to confirmed 2019-nCoV patients within 14 days, patients are classified in a risk-stratified system. Upon confirmation of a suspected 2019-nCoV case, affected persons must immediately be placed in airborne infection isolation and the appropriate public health agencies notified.", "Upon confirmation of a suspected 2019-nCoV case, affected persons must immediately be placed in airborne infection isolation and the appropriate public health agencies notified. This modified 3I Tool will assist emergency and primary care clinicians, as well as out-of-hospital providers, in effectively managing persons with suspected or confirmed 2019-nCoV. Text: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is a novel respiratory disease first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019.", "Text: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is a novel respiratory disease first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. 1 Chinese health officials were originally investigating a sudden increase in cases of pneumonia which were later determined to be linked to 2019-nCoV. While most cases originated within mainland China, the disease spread to neighboring countries including Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan, and later to the United States, Europe, and Australia.", "While most cases originated within mainland China, the disease spread to neighboring countries including Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan, and later to the United States, Europe, and Australia. A near real-time updated tracking website for cases and locations worldwide, along with reported deaths is available. 2 Chinese health authorities have sequenced 2019-nCoV and freely shared its genetic profile online.", "2 Chinese health authorities have sequenced 2019-nCoV and freely shared its genetic profile online. 3, 4 Additionally, on January 28, 2020, an Australian laboratory reported growing the virus from a patient sample. As of January 30, 2020, there have been at least 9,776 persons infected and 213 verified deaths.", "As of January 30, 2020, there have been at least 9,776 persons infected and 213 verified deaths. 2 These numbers are likely underestimates due to the limited information available regarding incubation time, transmissibility, and virus origin. The What was the research question?", "The What was the research question? Investigators adapted the \"Identify, Isolate, Inform\" 3I Tool for use in suspected cases of 2019-nCoV. What was the major finding of the study? A novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool is designed for frontline clinicians in the management of suspected patients.", "A novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool is designed for frontline clinicians in the management of suspected patients. This 2019-nCoV 3I adaptation will aid healthcare providers most likely to encounter the disease in the containment and effective treatment of patients. age distribution of these verified deaths is currently not available.", "age distribution of these verified deaths is currently not available. One preliminary, small-scale study of 41 patients in Wuhan China, reported 6 deaths 15% mortality with a median age of 49.0 years. 5 Additionally, transmission of the virus has reportedly occurred in healthcare facilities in Wuhan City, raising concerns of spread to healthcare workers, as was seen during prior outbreaks of the novel coronaviruses, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS .", "5 Additionally, transmission of the virus has reportedly occurred in healthcare facilities in Wuhan City, raising concerns of spread to healthcare workers, as was seen during prior outbreaks of the novel coronaviruses, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS . Due to the dynamic nature of the outbreak, exposure criteria may change depending on where new cases of 2019-nCoV are detected, the degree of transmissibility, and when additional information regarding the origin of the virus is discovered and reported. On January 15, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC confirmed the first known imported case of 2019-nCoV in the US state of Washington.", "On January 15, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC confirmed the first known imported case of 2019-nCoV in the US state of Washington. The patient had recently returned from Wuhan City, where he likely contracted the disease. Chicago health authorities reported a second US case on January 24, 2020.", "Chicago health authorities reported a second US case on January 24, 2020. This was quickly followed by additional imported cases reported in Orange and Los Angeles Counties, California on January 26, 2020. Additional suspected cases continue to be evaluated.", "Additional suspected cases continue to be evaluated. On January 30, 2020, the CDC reported the first local transmission in the US between members in a household. On the same day, the World Health Organization declared 2019-nCoV to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern PHEIC .", "On the same day, the World Health Organization declared 2019-nCoV to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern PHEIC . 6 On January 31, 2020, the US Department of Health and Human Services declared coronavirus a public health emergency. 7 Healthy individuals and those with mild illness may be asymptomatic, while others may have more pronounced symptoms of fever or lower respiratory illness.", "7 Healthy individuals and those with mild illness may be asymptomatic, while others may have more pronounced symptoms of fever or lower respiratory illness. Upon identification of a suspected patient, that individual should immediately be isolated with airborne precautions. Further workup and laboratory confirmation can then proceed.", "Further workup and laboratory confirmation can then proceed. Emergency physicians EPs , emergency medical services EMS personnel, and other healthcare workers who encounter patients with suspected 2019-nCoV infection must inform the appropriate authorities, including but not limited to hospital infection control and local or state public health agencies. Healthcare workers must follow on-going developments related to the outbreak, especially new information concerning detection and management.", "Healthcare workers must follow on-going developments related to the outbreak, especially new information concerning detection and management. 8, 9 The 3I Tool outlined in this paper is consistent with current US CDC guidelines and can be applied in a variety of settings such as those in emergency departments, urgent-care clinics, physicians' offices, and prehospital settings. This paper will first briefly review 2019-nCoV and then present the novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool as modified from its initial conception for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies.", "This paper will first briefly review 2019-nCoV and then present the novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool as modified from its initial conception for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies. 18 Coronavirus 2019-nCoV infection commonly presents with signs and symptoms of pneumonia or as a nonspecific lower respiratory illness, with coughing or difficulty breathing accompanied by fever. 5, 19, 20 Fever and cough constitute the most common presentations.", "5, 19, 20 Fever and cough constitute the most common presentations. However, patients may have other respiratory symptoms, sore throat, nasal congestion, malaise, myalgia, and headache. Bilateral infiltrates may be seen on chest X-ray. Severe cases may present with sepsis and even shock.", "Severe cases may present with sepsis and even shock. Conversely, some patients may present as only mildly ill or asymptomatic altogether. 21 To date, patients with underlying medical conditions and the elderly are more likely to become severely ill, require hospitalization, and ultimately die.", "21 To date, patients with underlying medical conditions and the elderly are more likely to become severely ill, require hospitalization, and ultimately die. 22 Early predictions for incubation time are between 2 and 14 days, based on data from similar coronaviruses. The 14-day criterion for epidemiological risk assumes the longest estimated incubation time.", "The 14-day criterion for epidemiological risk assumes the longest estimated incubation time. 23 In addition, the World Health Organization WHO has created its own interim case definition. 24 By definition, the main features of a novel virus, for example, how it is transmitted, will not be immediately known.", "24 By definition, the main features of a novel virus, for example, how it is transmitted, will not be immediately known. However, as with the development of any 3I Tool, it is essential to understand specific characteristics of the disease. In the case of a novel virus such as 2019-CoV, this is challenging since information is rapidly evolving and the science is not yet fully understood.", "In the case of a novel virus such as 2019-CoV, this is challenging since information is rapidly evolving and the science is not yet fully understood. It is possible that the virus will undergo mutations over time that could substantially change its The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus Koenig et al. features.", "features. Nevertheless, an appreciation of the key concepts that drive evidence-based management is beneficial Table 1 . Management guidance will likely change over time. With the initial discovery of a new potential public health threat, it will likely be unclear how patients become sick.", "With the initial discovery of a new potential public health threat, it will likely be unclear how patients become sick. For example, rather than a contagion, there could be a contaminant or a toxin responsible for signs and symptoms. In this case, the possibility of an environmental toxin in the Wuhan Market was a consideration early on when limited to no human-tohuman transmission was reported.", "In this case, the possibility of an environmental toxin in the Wuhan Market was a consideration early on when limited to no human-tohuman transmission was reported. The mode of transmission has implications for the types of personal protective equipment PPE needed to protect healthcare providers in the prehospital, clinic, and hospital settings. 25 In addition, patients may need decontamination after exposure to certain toxins.", "25 In addition, patients may need decontamination after exposure to certain toxins. 26 Another important consideration for application of the 3I Tool is whether the disease is contagious prior to symptom onset like measles or only after symptoms develop like Ebola . A January 30, 2020 letter to the New England Journal of Medicine describes a purported confirmed instance of transmission from an asymptomatic individual.", "A January 30, 2020 letter to the New England Journal of Medicine describes a purported confirmed instance of transmission from an asymptomatic individual. Researchers state that, before symptom onset, the primary case infected two individuals, one of which infected two additional colleagues. 27 Subsequent investigation suggested that the source patient did have mild symptoms and had taken an antipyretic, calling this reported asymptomatic transmission into question.", "27 Subsequent investigation suggested that the source patient did have mild symptoms and had taken an antipyretic, calling this reported asymptomatic transmission into question. While quarantine may not be feasible and can have unintended consequences, 28, 29, 30 it is a public health tool that can be considered in cases when disease is transmissible before symptom onset. 30 Conversely, if a disease is known not to be transmissible prior to symptom onset, asymptomatic exposed patients must be monitored, but do not require quarantine or isolation unless they develop symptoms.", "30 Conversely, if a disease is known not to be transmissible prior to symptom onset, asymptomatic exposed patients must be monitored, but do not require quarantine or isolation unless they develop symptoms. Initially, it may be unclear whether an infectious agent occurred naturally or was deliberately or accidentally released. In this case, a BSL-4 laboratory studying coronaviruses was located approximately 32 kilometers away from the market where initial exposures were felt to occur.", "In this case, a BSL-4 laboratory studying coronaviruses was located approximately 32 kilometers away from the market where initial exposures were felt to occur. 31 Recall that in 2001, the anthrax letter attacks were initially thought to be naturally occurring. Once determined to be bioterrorism, management of the event was similar to that for a chemical exposure with a sudden impact, defined scene, and need for a rapid response and decontamination on site.", "Once determined to be bioterrorism, management of the event was similar to that for a chemical exposure with a sudden impact, defined scene, and need for a rapid response and decontamination on site. This differed from the WHO's modeling predicting an aerosolized release that would result in an incubation period with 100,000 or more persons exposed rather than the 22 people who contracted anthrax in 2001. 32 By understanding the key features of a novel disease, healthcare workers can take evidence-based measures to protect themselves, optimize individual patient management, and prevent further disease spread.", "32 By understanding the key features of a novel disease, healthcare workers can take evidence-based measures to protect themselves, optimize individual patient management, and prevent further disease spread. It is currently unclear how 2019-nCoV is spread, but it is suspected to be transmitted through contact with infected respiratory secretions, like other known coronaviruses. There are instances of sustained human-to-human transmission across generations of cases, especially near the epicenter in Wuhan City.", "There are instances of sustained human-to-human transmission across generations of cases, especially near the epicenter in Wuhan City. 21 Current evidence suggests that close contact with an infected person is a major factor in disease transmission. CDC defines \"close contact\" 33 as being in or within two meters of an area with a confirmed patient or being directly exposed to infectious secretions without appropriate PPE.", "CDC defines \"close contact\" 33 as being in or within two meters of an area with a confirmed patient or being directly exposed to infectious secretions without appropriate PPE. Healthcare facilities in China have reported spread from person to person. In addition, some mildly ill or potentially even asymptomatic patients may have a higher chance of spreading the disease to others as they may be less likely to seek medical care.", "In addition, some mildly ill or potentially even asymptomatic patients may have a higher chance of spreading the disease to others as they may be less likely to seek medical care. 34 The possibility that patients may be infectious prior to symptom onset further compounds the difficulty of containing the virus and effectively preventing transmission. The current majority of 2019-nCoV cases have been within China and its bordering countries.", "The current majority of 2019-nCoV cases have been within China and its bordering countries. 2 Persons with recent travel within 14 days to Wuhan City or another region with widespread disease, or exposure to a patient under investigation, are considered to have an epidemiologic risk factor and should be assessed for signs and symptoms of a viral illness such as fever and respiratory symptoms. Coronavirus is a zoonotic virus The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus that is transmitted to humans via contact with infected animals.", "Coronavirus is a zoonotic virus The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus that is transmitted to humans via contact with infected animals. Preliminary reports suggest the disease may have originated in a seafood and live animal market in Wuhan City, but it is still unknown how or whether such transmission occurred. Clinicians working with local public health departments must arrange to have specimens from patients under investigation PUIs sent to the CDC laboratory.", "Clinicians working with local public health departments must arrange to have specimens from patients under investigation PUIs sent to the CDC laboratory. At this time, the CDC has the only laboratory that can definitively test for 2019-nCoV, though laboratory testing capacity is being rapidly expanded. Polymerase chain reaction PCR assays conducted on samples from a patient's upper and lower respiratory tracts will be used to confirm potential cases.", "Polymerase chain reaction PCR assays conducted on samples from a patient's upper and lower respiratory tracts will be used to confirm potential cases. In addition, serum antibody titers can be analyzed for confirmation of infection or evidence of immunity. Up-to-date information about the needed specimens and handling requirements to test for 2019-nCoV are available on the CDC website.", "Up-to-date information about the needed specimens and handling requirements to test for 2019-nCoV are available on the CDC website. 35 Like other related coronaviruses, patients with 2019-nCoV frequently present with non-specific symptoms resembling that of influenza. Physicians may consider differential diagnoses related to a wide variety of respiratory infections.", "Physicians may consider differential diagnoses related to a wide variety of respiratory infections. In order to relate these symptoms to 2019-nCoV, it is imperative that the identification of a potential exposure event epidemiologic risk factor within 14 days of symptom onset is made so that a more focused work-up for 2019-nCoV can be completed. Although the likelihood of coinfection of 2019-nCoV and another respiratory virus is thought to be low, a positive finding of another respiratory pathogen does not exclude the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV.", "Although the likelihood of coinfection of 2019-nCoV and another respiratory virus is thought to be low, a positive finding of another respiratory pathogen does not exclude the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. Many commercially available respiratory panels include \"coronavirus\" in the results, but neither a positive nor a negative finding on these panels should be used to include or exclude a diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. Supportive care with appropriate infection control is the mainstay of current CDC treatment guidelines for 2019-nCoV.", "Supportive care with appropriate infection control is the mainstay of current CDC treatment guidelines for 2019-nCoV. There are not yet any approved antiviral treatments for 2019-nCoV. Emergency Use Authorizations EUA for compassionate use cases may be forthcoming from the US federal government for normally unapproved treatments. Supportive treatment predominantly includes respiratory support, hydration, and antipyretics.", "Supportive treatment predominantly includes respiratory support, hydration, and antipyretics. General treatment for severe cases should focus on the preservation of vital organ function. In the future, antiviral medications may be available. If a secondary bacterial infection such as pneumonia develops, targeted antibiotics are indicated.", "If a secondary bacterial infection such as pneumonia develops, targeted antibiotics are indicated. Prevention of 2019-nCoV transmission, like any other infectious agent, involves minimizing risk of exposure. Vaccines are under accelerated development and may be useful in the future for post-exposure prophylaxis.", "Vaccines are under accelerated development and may be useful in the future for post-exposure prophylaxis. Healthcare personnel are at increased risk and should practice standard, droplet, and airborne precautions when encountering an infected person, a PUI, or any symptomatic close contacts. Healthcare workers handling specimens should also adhere to CDC guidelines and should not attempt to perform any virus isolation or characterization.", "Healthcare workers handling specimens should also adhere to CDC guidelines and should not attempt to perform any virus isolation or characterization. Fever screening has been implemented at numerous airports, including major international hubs within Asia and the US. The efficacy of this intervention is not well documented, however, as some infected persons may be afebrile and disease transmission might occur prior to symptom onset.", "The efficacy of this intervention is not well documented, however, as some infected persons may be afebrile and disease transmission might occur prior to symptom onset. 27 In addition, people can artificially lower their temperature readings, e.g., by applying ice to their foreheads. As outlined above, admission criteria for 2019-nCoV are similar to that of other patients.", "As outlined above, admission criteria for 2019-nCoV are similar to that of other patients. If patients do not meet medical criteria for hospitalization, they may be discharged home with isolation precautions and continued observation. EPs must notify local public health authorities so appropriate monitoring and community protective measures can be instituted.", "EPs must notify local public health authorities so appropriate monitoring and community protective measures can be instituted. The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool was initially developed for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies. 18 This novel tool for suspected 2019-nCoV patients Figure 1 provides frontline clinicians with a simple algorithm to manage an emerging disease.", "18 This novel tool for suspected 2019-nCoV patients Figure 1 provides frontline clinicians with a simple algorithm to manage an emerging disease. Identification of exposed patients with an epidemiologic risk factor within 14 days of symptom onset is a crucial first step. An automatic prompt in the electronic health record can be useful in assisting clinicians with early identification of patients at risk.", "An automatic prompt in the electronic health record can be useful in assisting clinicians with early identification of patients at risk. Case definitions promulgated by the WHO 24 and CDC 33 provide useful comprehensive definitions that have been incorporated into the 3I Tool. The 2019-nCoV Tool provides an accurate, summarized algorithm to immediately, and effectively manage suspected patients until additional resources can be consulted.", "The 2019-nCoV Tool provides an accurate, summarized algorithm to immediately, and effectively manage suspected patients until additional resources can be consulted. Patients who do not have an exposure risk or any symptoms may be triaged normally. However, before making patient contact, providers must first apply the Vital Sign Zero concept.", "However, before making patient contact, providers must first apply the Vital Sign Zero concept. 36 Vital Sign Zero is a preliminary, non-contact assessment i.e., performed prior to touching a patient to take traditional vital signs to first determine whether specific PPE is indicated before the examination commences. By taking the additional time to complete this assessment, risk of exposure and further transmission can be minimized.", "By taking the additional time to complete this assessment, risk of exposure and further transmission can be minimized. while in the treatment facility should be started and maintained to assist with the possibility of contact tracing. Following isolation, physicians should immediately inform the appropriate authorities.", "Following isolation, physicians should immediately inform the appropriate authorities. Patients who do not meet medical criteria for admission can be isolated at home during the evaluation phase. 37 Health department officials can help prevent transmission in isolated patients by providing in-home monitoring and implementing appropriate exposure-control measures.", "37 Health department officials can help prevent transmission in isolated patients by providing in-home monitoring and implementing appropriate exposure-control measures. Providers in the prehospital setting who have a high likelihood of encountering 2019-nCoV patients, such as those near international ports of entry, should adhere to established exposure control guidelines. 38 Along with appropriate PPE, providers should also carry thermometers to quantify any fever.", "38 Along with appropriate PPE, providers should also carry thermometers to quantify any fever. In the US, providers should contact the appropriate CDC quarantine station upon isolation of infected or suspected patients, especially those from Wuhan, China or other regions with widespread disease, who report symptoms in the last 14 days. As for other infectious diseases, assessing travel history is essential.", "As for other infectious diseases, assessing travel history is essential. Dispatch protocols have been instituted to facilitate identification of callers to 911 or the country-equivalent emergency number prior to prehospital personnel arrival. 39 In addition, CDC has promulgated EMS guidelines for prehospital PPE, transportation of PUIs, vehicle decontamination, and 911 Public Safety Answering Points PSAPs for 2019-nCoV.", "39 In addition, CDC has promulgated EMS guidelines for prehospital PPE, transportation of PUIs, vehicle decontamination, and 911 Public Safety Answering Points PSAPs for 2019-nCoV. 40 2019-nCoV is an emerging infectious disease with rapidly evolving features, the full scope of which will be defined over time. Prior outbreaks of coronaviruses can help inform needed actions in the short term to assist with both treatment of individual patients and prevention of global disease spread.", "Prior outbreaks of coronaviruses can help inform needed actions in the short term to assist with both treatment of individual patients and prevention of global disease spread. This adaptation of the Identify-Isolate-Inform Tool serves as a resource for healthcare workers who need to make clear, rapid assessments when confronted with potential patients. The concise nature of the 2019-nCoV 3I Tool allows for the rapid and effective management of a novel disease by healthcare providers." ]

[ "2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is an emerging infectious disease closely related to MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV that was first reported in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. As of January 2020, cases of 2019-nCoV are continuing to be reported in other Eastern Asian countries as well as in the United States, Europe, Australia, and numerous other countries. An unusually high volume of domestic and international travel corresponding to the beginning of the 2020 Chinese New Year complicated initial identification and containment of infected persons.", "An unusually high volume of domestic and international travel corresponding to the beginning of the 2020 Chinese New Year complicated initial identification and containment of infected persons. Due to the rapidly rising number of cases and reported deaths, all countries should be considered at risk of imported 2019-nCoV. Therefore, it is essential for prehospital, clinic, and emergency department personnel to be able to rapidly assess 2019-nCoV risk and take immediate actions if indicated.", "Therefore, it is essential for prehospital, clinic, and emergency department personnel to be able to rapidly assess 2019-nCoV risk and take immediate actions if indicated. The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool, originally conceived for the initial detection and management of Ebola virus and later adjusted for other infectious agents, can be adapted for any emerging infectious disease. This paper reports a modification of the 3I Tool for use in the initial detection and management of patients under investigation for 2019-nCoV.", "This paper reports a modification of the 3I Tool for use in the initial detection and management of patients under investigation for 2019-nCoV. After initial assessment for symptoms and epidemiological risk factors, including travel to affected areas and exposure to confirmed 2019-nCoV patients within 14 days, patients are classified in a risk-stratified system. Upon confirmation of a suspected 2019-nCoV case, affected persons must immediately be placed in airborne infection isolation and the appropriate public health agencies notified.", "Upon confirmation of a suspected 2019-nCoV case, affected persons must immediately be placed in airborne infection isolation and the appropriate public health agencies notified. This modified 3I Tool will assist emergency and primary care clinicians, as well as out-of-hospital providers, in effectively managing persons with suspected or confirmed 2019-nCoV. Text: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is a novel respiratory disease first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019.", "Text: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is a novel respiratory disease first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. 1 Chinese health officials were originally investigating a sudden increase in cases of pneumonia which were later determined to be linked to 2019-nCoV. While most cases originated within mainland China, the disease spread to neighboring countries including Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan, and later to the United States, Europe, and Australia.", "While most cases originated within mainland China, the disease spread to neighboring countries including Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan, and later to the United States, Europe, and Australia. A near real-time updated tracking website for cases and locations worldwide, along with reported deaths is available. 2 Chinese health authorities have sequenced 2019-nCoV and freely shared its genetic profile online.", "2 Chinese health authorities have sequenced 2019-nCoV and freely shared its genetic profile online. 3, 4 Additionally, on January 28, 2020, an Australian laboratory reported growing the virus from a patient sample. As of January 30, 2020, there have been at least 9,776 persons infected and 213 verified deaths.", "As of January 30, 2020, there have been at least 9,776 persons infected and 213 verified deaths. 2 These numbers are likely underestimates due to the limited information available regarding incubation time, transmissibility, and virus origin. The What was the research question?", "The What was the research question? Investigators adapted the \"Identify, Isolate, Inform\" 3I Tool for use in suspected cases of 2019-nCoV. What was the major finding of the study? A novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool is designed for frontline clinicians in the management of suspected patients.", "A novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool is designed for frontline clinicians in the management of suspected patients. This 2019-nCoV 3I adaptation will aid healthcare providers most likely to encounter the disease in the containment and effective treatment of patients. age distribution of these verified deaths is currently not available.", "age distribution of these verified deaths is currently not available. One preliminary, small-scale study of 41 patients in Wuhan China, reported 6 deaths 15% mortality with a median age of 49.0 years. 5 Additionally, transmission of the virus has reportedly occurred in healthcare facilities in Wuhan City, raising concerns of spread to healthcare workers, as was seen during prior outbreaks of the novel coronaviruses, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS .", "5 Additionally, transmission of the virus has reportedly occurred in healthcare facilities in Wuhan City, raising concerns of spread to healthcare workers, as was seen during prior outbreaks of the novel coronaviruses, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS . Due to the dynamic nature of the outbreak, exposure criteria may change depending on where new cases of 2019-nCoV are detected, the degree of transmissibility, and when additional information regarding the origin of the virus is discovered and reported. On January 15, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC confirmed the first known imported case of 2019-nCoV in the US state of Washington.", "On January 15, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC confirmed the first known imported case of 2019-nCoV in the US state of Washington. The patient had recently returned from Wuhan City, where he likely contracted the disease. Chicago health authorities reported a second US case on January 24, 2020.", "Chicago health authorities reported a second US case on January 24, 2020. This was quickly followed by additional imported cases reported in Orange and Los Angeles Counties, California on January 26, 2020. Additional suspected cases continue to be evaluated.", "Additional suspected cases continue to be evaluated. On January 30, 2020, the CDC reported the first local transmission in the US between members in a household. On the same day, the World Health Organization declared 2019-nCoV to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern PHEIC .", "On the same day, the World Health Organization declared 2019-nCoV to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern PHEIC . 6 On January 31, 2020, the US Department of Health and Human Services declared coronavirus a public health emergency. 7 Healthy individuals and those with mild illness may be asymptomatic, while others may have more pronounced symptoms of fever or lower respiratory illness.", "7 Healthy individuals and those with mild illness may be asymptomatic, while others may have more pronounced symptoms of fever or lower respiratory illness. Upon identification of a suspected patient, that individual should immediately be isolated with airborne precautions. Further workup and laboratory confirmation can then proceed.", "Further workup and laboratory confirmation can then proceed. Emergency physicians EPs , emergency medical services EMS personnel, and other healthcare workers who encounter patients with suspected 2019-nCoV infection must inform the appropriate authorities, including but not limited to hospital infection control and local or state public health agencies. Healthcare workers must follow on-going developments related to the outbreak, especially new information concerning detection and management.", "Healthcare workers must follow on-going developments related to the outbreak, especially new information concerning detection and management. 8, 9 The 3I Tool outlined in this paper is consistent with current US CDC guidelines and can be applied in a variety of settings such as those in emergency departments, urgent-care clinics, physicians' offices, and prehospital settings. This paper will first briefly review 2019-nCoV and then present the novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool as modified from its initial conception for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies.", "This paper will first briefly review 2019-nCoV and then present the novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool as modified from its initial conception for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies. 18 Coronavirus 2019-nCoV infection commonly presents with signs and symptoms of pneumonia or as a nonspecific lower respiratory illness, with coughing or difficulty breathing accompanied by fever. 5, 19, 20 Fever and cough constitute the most common presentations.", "5, 19, 20 Fever and cough constitute the most common presentations. However, patients may have other respiratory symptoms, sore throat, nasal congestion, malaise, myalgia, and headache. Bilateral infiltrates may be seen on chest X-ray. Severe cases may present with sepsis and even shock.", "Severe cases may present with sepsis and even shock. Conversely, some patients may present as only mildly ill or asymptomatic altogether. 21 To date, patients with underlying medical conditions and the elderly are more likely to become severely ill, require hospitalization, and ultimately die.", "21 To date, patients with underlying medical conditions and the elderly are more likely to become severely ill, require hospitalization, and ultimately die. 22 Early predictions for incubation time are between 2 and 14 days, based on data from similar coronaviruses. The 14-day criterion for epidemiological risk assumes the longest estimated incubation time.", "The 14-day criterion for epidemiological risk assumes the longest estimated incubation time. 23 In addition, the World Health Organization WHO has created its own interim case definition. 24 By definition, the main features of a novel virus, for example, how it is transmitted, will not be immediately known.", "24 By definition, the main features of a novel virus, for example, how it is transmitted, will not be immediately known. However, as with the development of any 3I Tool, it is essential to understand specific characteristics of the disease. In the case of a novel virus such as 2019-CoV, this is challenging since information is rapidly evolving and the science is not yet fully understood.", "In the case of a novel virus such as 2019-CoV, this is challenging since information is rapidly evolving and the science is not yet fully understood. It is possible that the virus will undergo mutations over time that could substantially change its The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus Koenig et al. features.", "features. Nevertheless, an appreciation of the key concepts that drive evidence-based management is beneficial Table 1 . Management guidance will likely change over time. With the initial discovery of a new potential public health threat, it will likely be unclear how patients become sick.", "With the initial discovery of a new potential public health threat, it will likely be unclear how patients become sick. For example, rather than a contagion, there could be a contaminant or a toxin responsible for signs and symptoms. In this case, the possibility of an environmental toxin in the Wuhan Market was a consideration early on when limited to no human-tohuman transmission was reported.", "In this case, the possibility of an environmental toxin in the Wuhan Market was a consideration early on when limited to no human-tohuman transmission was reported. The mode of transmission has implications for the types of personal protective equipment PPE needed to protect healthcare providers in the prehospital, clinic, and hospital settings. 25 In addition, patients may need decontamination after exposure to certain toxins.", "25 In addition, patients may need decontamination after exposure to certain toxins. 26 Another important consideration for application of the 3I Tool is whether the disease is contagious prior to symptom onset like measles or only after symptoms develop like Ebola . A January 30, 2020 letter to the New England Journal of Medicine describes a purported confirmed instance of transmission from an asymptomatic individual.", "A January 30, 2020 letter to the New England Journal of Medicine describes a purported confirmed instance of transmission from an asymptomatic individual. Researchers state that, before symptom onset, the primary case infected two individuals, one of which infected two additional colleagues. 27 Subsequent investigation suggested that the source patient did have mild symptoms and had taken an antipyretic, calling this reported asymptomatic transmission into question.", "27 Subsequent investigation suggested that the source patient did have mild symptoms and had taken an antipyretic, calling this reported asymptomatic transmission into question. While quarantine may not be feasible and can have unintended consequences, 28, 29, 30 it is a public health tool that can be considered in cases when disease is transmissible before symptom onset. 30 Conversely, if a disease is known not to be transmissible prior to symptom onset, asymptomatic exposed patients must be monitored, but do not require quarantine or isolation unless they develop symptoms.", "30 Conversely, if a disease is known not to be transmissible prior to symptom onset, asymptomatic exposed patients must be monitored, but do not require quarantine or isolation unless they develop symptoms. Initially, it may be unclear whether an infectious agent occurred naturally or was deliberately or accidentally released. In this case, a BSL-4 laboratory studying coronaviruses was located approximately 32 kilometers away from the market where initial exposures were felt to occur.", "In this case, a BSL-4 laboratory studying coronaviruses was located approximately 32 kilometers away from the market where initial exposures were felt to occur. 31 Recall that in 2001, the anthrax letter attacks were initially thought to be naturally occurring. Once determined to be bioterrorism, management of the event was similar to that for a chemical exposure with a sudden impact, defined scene, and need for a rapid response and decontamination on site.", "Once determined to be bioterrorism, management of the event was similar to that for a chemical exposure with a sudden impact, defined scene, and need for a rapid response and decontamination on site. This differed from the WHO's modeling predicting an aerosolized release that would result in an incubation period with 100,000 or more persons exposed rather than the 22 people who contracted anthrax in 2001. 32 By understanding the key features of a novel disease, healthcare workers can take evidence-based measures to protect themselves, optimize individual patient management, and prevent further disease spread.", "32 By understanding the key features of a novel disease, healthcare workers can take evidence-based measures to protect themselves, optimize individual patient management, and prevent further disease spread. It is currently unclear how 2019-nCoV is spread, but it is suspected to be transmitted through contact with infected respiratory secretions, like other known coronaviruses. There are instances of sustained human-to-human transmission across generations of cases, especially near the epicenter in Wuhan City.", "There are instances of sustained human-to-human transmission across generations of cases, especially near the epicenter in Wuhan City. 21 Current evidence suggests that close contact with an infected person is a major factor in disease transmission. CDC defines \"close contact\" 33 as being in or within two meters of an area with a confirmed patient or being directly exposed to infectious secretions without appropriate PPE.", "CDC defines \"close contact\" 33 as being in or within two meters of an area with a confirmed patient or being directly exposed to infectious secretions without appropriate PPE. Healthcare facilities in China have reported spread from person to person. In addition, some mildly ill or potentially even asymptomatic patients may have a higher chance of spreading the disease to others as they may be less likely to seek medical care.", "In addition, some mildly ill or potentially even asymptomatic patients may have a higher chance of spreading the disease to others as they may be less likely to seek medical care. 34 The possibility that patients may be infectious prior to symptom onset further compounds the difficulty of containing the virus and effectively preventing transmission. The current majority of 2019-nCoV cases have been within China and its bordering countries.", "The current majority of 2019-nCoV cases have been within China and its bordering countries. 2 Persons with recent travel within 14 days to Wuhan City or another region with widespread disease, or exposure to a patient under investigation, are considered to have an epidemiologic risk factor and should be assessed for signs and symptoms of a viral illness such as fever and respiratory symptoms. Coronavirus is a zoonotic virus The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus that is transmitted to humans via contact with infected animals.", "Coronavirus is a zoonotic virus The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus that is transmitted to humans via contact with infected animals. Preliminary reports suggest the disease may have originated in a seafood and live animal market in Wuhan City, but it is still unknown how or whether such transmission occurred. Clinicians working with local public health departments must arrange to have specimens from patients under investigation PUIs sent to the CDC laboratory.", "Clinicians working with local public health departments must arrange to have specimens from patients under investigation PUIs sent to the CDC laboratory. At this time, the CDC has the only laboratory that can definitively test for 2019-nCoV, though laboratory testing capacity is being rapidly expanded. Polymerase chain reaction PCR assays conducted on samples from a patient's upper and lower respiratory tracts will be used to confirm potential cases.", "Polymerase chain reaction PCR assays conducted on samples from a patient's upper and lower respiratory tracts will be used to confirm potential cases. In addition, serum antibody titers can be analyzed for confirmation of infection or evidence of immunity. Up-to-date information about the needed specimens and handling requirements to test for 2019-nCoV are available on the CDC website.", "Up-to-date information about the needed specimens and handling requirements to test for 2019-nCoV are available on the CDC website. 35 Like other related coronaviruses, patients with 2019-nCoV frequently present with non-specific symptoms resembling that of influenza. Physicians may consider differential diagnoses related to a wide variety of respiratory infections.", "Physicians may consider differential diagnoses related to a wide variety of respiratory infections. In order to relate these symptoms to 2019-nCoV, it is imperative that the identification of a potential exposure event epidemiologic risk factor within 14 days of symptom onset is made so that a more focused work-up for 2019-nCoV can be completed. Although the likelihood of coinfection of 2019-nCoV and another respiratory virus is thought to be low, a positive finding of another respiratory pathogen does not exclude the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV.", "Although the likelihood of coinfection of 2019-nCoV and another respiratory virus is thought to be low, a positive finding of another respiratory pathogen does not exclude the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. Many commercially available respiratory panels include \"coronavirus\" in the results, but neither a positive nor a negative finding on these panels should be used to include or exclude a diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. Supportive care with appropriate infection control is the mainstay of current CDC treatment guidelines for 2019-nCoV.", "Supportive care with appropriate infection control is the mainstay of current CDC treatment guidelines for 2019-nCoV. There are not yet any approved antiviral treatments for 2019-nCoV. Emergency Use Authorizations EUA for compassionate use cases may be forthcoming from the US federal government for normally unapproved treatments. Supportive treatment predominantly includes respiratory support, hydration, and antipyretics.", "Supportive treatment predominantly includes respiratory support, hydration, and antipyretics. General treatment for severe cases should focus on the preservation of vital organ function. In the future, antiviral medications may be available. If a secondary bacterial infection such as pneumonia develops, targeted antibiotics are indicated.", "If a secondary bacterial infection such as pneumonia develops, targeted antibiotics are indicated. Prevention of 2019-nCoV transmission, like any other infectious agent, involves minimizing risk of exposure. Vaccines are under accelerated development and may be useful in the future for post-exposure prophylaxis.", "Vaccines are under accelerated development and may be useful in the future for post-exposure prophylaxis. Healthcare personnel are at increased risk and should practice standard, droplet, and airborne precautions when encountering an infected person, a PUI, or any symptomatic close contacts. Healthcare workers handling specimens should also adhere to CDC guidelines and should not attempt to perform any virus isolation or characterization.", "Healthcare workers handling specimens should also adhere to CDC guidelines and should not attempt to perform any virus isolation or characterization. Fever screening has been implemented at numerous airports, including major international hubs within Asia and the US. The efficacy of this intervention is not well documented, however, as some infected persons may be afebrile and disease transmission might occur prior to symptom onset.", "The efficacy of this intervention is not well documented, however, as some infected persons may be afebrile and disease transmission might occur prior to symptom onset. 27 In addition, people can artificially lower their temperature readings, e.g., by applying ice to their foreheads. As outlined above, admission criteria for 2019-nCoV are similar to that of other patients.", "As outlined above, admission criteria for 2019-nCoV are similar to that of other patients. If patients do not meet medical criteria for hospitalization, they may be discharged home with isolation precautions and continued observation. EPs must notify local public health authorities so appropriate monitoring and community protective measures can be instituted.", "EPs must notify local public health authorities so appropriate monitoring and community protective measures can be instituted. The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool was initially developed for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies. 18 This novel tool for suspected 2019-nCoV patients Figure 1 provides frontline clinicians with a simple algorithm to manage an emerging disease.", "18 This novel tool for suspected 2019-nCoV patients Figure 1 provides frontline clinicians with a simple algorithm to manage an emerging disease. Identification of exposed patients with an epidemiologic risk factor within 14 days of symptom onset is a crucial first step. An automatic prompt in the electronic health record can be useful in assisting clinicians with early identification of patients at risk.", "An automatic prompt in the electronic health record can be useful in assisting clinicians with early identification of patients at risk. Case definitions promulgated by the WHO 24 and CDC 33 provide useful comprehensive definitions that have been incorporated into the 3I Tool. The 2019-nCoV Tool provides an accurate, summarized algorithm to immediately, and effectively manage suspected patients until additional resources can be consulted.", "The 2019-nCoV Tool provides an accurate, summarized algorithm to immediately, and effectively manage suspected patients until additional resources can be consulted. Patients who do not have an exposure risk or any symptoms may be triaged normally. However, before making patient contact, providers must first apply the Vital Sign Zero concept.", "However, before making patient contact, providers must first apply the Vital Sign Zero concept. 36 Vital Sign Zero is a preliminary, non-contact assessment i.e., performed prior to touching a patient to take traditional vital signs to first determine whether specific PPE is indicated before the examination commences. By taking the additional time to complete this assessment, risk of exposure and further transmission can be minimized.", "By taking the additional time to complete this assessment, risk of exposure and further transmission can be minimized. while in the treatment facility should be started and maintained to assist with the possibility of contact tracing. Following isolation, physicians should immediately inform the appropriate authorities.", "Following isolation, physicians should immediately inform the appropriate authorities. Patients who do not meet medical criteria for admission can be isolated at home during the evaluation phase. 37 Health department officials can help prevent transmission in isolated patients by providing in-home monitoring and implementing appropriate exposure-control measures.", "37 Health department officials can help prevent transmission in isolated patients by providing in-home monitoring and implementing appropriate exposure-control measures. Providers in the prehospital setting who have a high likelihood of encountering 2019-nCoV patients, such as those near international ports of entry, should adhere to established exposure control guidelines. 38 Along with appropriate PPE, providers should also carry thermometers to quantify any fever.", "38 Along with appropriate PPE, providers should also carry thermometers to quantify any fever. In the US, providers should contact the appropriate CDC quarantine station upon isolation of infected or suspected patients, especially those from Wuhan, China or other regions with widespread disease, who report symptoms in the last 14 days. As for other infectious diseases, assessing travel history is essential.", "As for other infectious diseases, assessing travel history is essential. Dispatch protocols have been instituted to facilitate identification of callers to 911 or the country-equivalent emergency number prior to prehospital personnel arrival. 39 In addition, CDC has promulgated EMS guidelines for prehospital PPE, transportation of PUIs, vehicle decontamination, and 911 Public Safety Answering Points PSAPs for 2019-nCoV.", "39 In addition, CDC has promulgated EMS guidelines for prehospital PPE, transportation of PUIs, vehicle decontamination, and 911 Public Safety Answering Points PSAPs for 2019-nCoV. 40 2019-nCoV is an emerging infectious disease with rapidly evolving features, the full scope of which will be defined over time. Prior outbreaks of coronaviruses can help inform needed actions in the short term to assist with both treatment of individual patients and prevention of global disease spread.", "Prior outbreaks of coronaviruses can help inform needed actions in the short term to assist with both treatment of individual patients and prevention of global disease spread. This adaptation of the Identify-Isolate-Inform Tool serves as a resource for healthcare workers who need to make clear, rapid assessments when confronted with potential patients. The concise nature of the 2019-nCoV 3I Tool allows for the rapid and effective management of a novel disease by healthcare providers." ]

[ "2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is an emerging infectious disease closely related to MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV that was first reported in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. As of January 2020, cases of 2019-nCoV are continuing to be reported in other Eastern Asian countries as well as in the United States, Europe, Australia, and numerous other countries. An unusually high volume of domestic and international travel corresponding to the beginning of the 2020 Chinese New Year complicated initial identification and containment of infected persons.", "An unusually high volume of domestic and international travel corresponding to the beginning of the 2020 Chinese New Year complicated initial identification and containment of infected persons. Due to the rapidly rising number of cases and reported deaths, all countries should be considered at risk of imported 2019-nCoV. Therefore, it is essential for prehospital, clinic, and emergency department personnel to be able to rapidly assess 2019-nCoV risk and take immediate actions if indicated.", "Therefore, it is essential for prehospital, clinic, and emergency department personnel to be able to rapidly assess 2019-nCoV risk and take immediate actions if indicated. The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool, originally conceived for the initial detection and management of Ebola virus and later adjusted for other infectious agents, can be adapted for any emerging infectious disease. This paper reports a modification of the 3I Tool for use in the initial detection and management of patients under investigation for 2019-nCoV.", "This paper reports a modification of the 3I Tool for use in the initial detection and management of patients under investigation for 2019-nCoV. After initial assessment for symptoms and epidemiological risk factors, including travel to affected areas and exposure to confirmed 2019-nCoV patients within 14 days, patients are classified in a risk-stratified system. Upon confirmation of a suspected 2019-nCoV case, affected persons must immediately be placed in airborne infection isolation and the appropriate public health agencies notified.", "Upon confirmation of a suspected 2019-nCoV case, affected persons must immediately be placed in airborne infection isolation and the appropriate public health agencies notified. This modified 3I Tool will assist emergency and primary care clinicians, as well as out-of-hospital providers, in effectively managing persons with suspected or confirmed 2019-nCoV. Text: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is a novel respiratory disease first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019.", "Text: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is a novel respiratory disease first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. 1 Chinese health officials were originally investigating a sudden increase in cases of pneumonia which were later determined to be linked to 2019-nCoV. While most cases originated within mainland China, the disease spread to neighboring countries including Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan, and later to the United States, Europe, and Australia.", "While most cases originated within mainland China, the disease spread to neighboring countries including Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan, and later to the United States, Europe, and Australia. A near real-time updated tracking website for cases and locations worldwide, along with reported deaths is available. 2 Chinese health authorities have sequenced 2019-nCoV and freely shared its genetic profile online.", "2 Chinese health authorities have sequenced 2019-nCoV and freely shared its genetic profile online. 3, 4 Additionally, on January 28, 2020, an Australian laboratory reported growing the virus from a patient sample. As of January 30, 2020, there have been at least 9,776 persons infected and 213 verified deaths.", "As of January 30, 2020, there have been at least 9,776 persons infected and 213 verified deaths. 2 These numbers are likely underestimates due to the limited information available regarding incubation time, transmissibility, and virus origin. The What was the research question?", "The What was the research question? Investigators adapted the \"Identify, Isolate, Inform\" 3I Tool for use in suspected cases of 2019-nCoV. What was the major finding of the study? A novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool is designed for frontline clinicians in the management of suspected patients.", "A novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool is designed for frontline clinicians in the management of suspected patients. This 2019-nCoV 3I adaptation will aid healthcare providers most likely to encounter the disease in the containment and effective treatment of patients. age distribution of these verified deaths is currently not available.", "age distribution of these verified deaths is currently not available. One preliminary, small-scale study of 41 patients in Wuhan China, reported 6 deaths 15% mortality with a median age of 49.0 years. 5 Additionally, transmission of the virus has reportedly occurred in healthcare facilities in Wuhan City, raising concerns of spread to healthcare workers, as was seen during prior outbreaks of the novel coronaviruses, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS .", "5 Additionally, transmission of the virus has reportedly occurred in healthcare facilities in Wuhan City, raising concerns of spread to healthcare workers, as was seen during prior outbreaks of the novel coronaviruses, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS . Due to the dynamic nature of the outbreak, exposure criteria may change depending on where new cases of 2019-nCoV are detected, the degree of transmissibility, and when additional information regarding the origin of the virus is discovered and reported. On January 15, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC confirmed the first known imported case of 2019-nCoV in the US state of Washington.", "On January 15, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC confirmed the first known imported case of 2019-nCoV in the US state of Washington. The patient had recently returned from Wuhan City, where he likely contracted the disease. Chicago health authorities reported a second US case on January 24, 2020.", "Chicago health authorities reported a second US case on January 24, 2020. This was quickly followed by additional imported cases reported in Orange and Los Angeles Counties, California on January 26, 2020. Additional suspected cases continue to be evaluated.", "Additional suspected cases continue to be evaluated. On January 30, 2020, the CDC reported the first local transmission in the US between members in a household. On the same day, the World Health Organization declared 2019-nCoV to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern PHEIC .", "On the same day, the World Health Organization declared 2019-nCoV to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern PHEIC . 6 On January 31, 2020, the US Department of Health and Human Services declared coronavirus a public health emergency. 7 Healthy individuals and those with mild illness may be asymptomatic, while others may have more pronounced symptoms of fever or lower respiratory illness.", "7 Healthy individuals and those with mild illness may be asymptomatic, while others may have more pronounced symptoms of fever or lower respiratory illness. Upon identification of a suspected patient, that individual should immediately be isolated with airborne precautions. Further workup and laboratory confirmation can then proceed.", "Further workup and laboratory confirmation can then proceed. Emergency physicians EPs , emergency medical services EMS personnel, and other healthcare workers who encounter patients with suspected 2019-nCoV infection must inform the appropriate authorities, including but not limited to hospital infection control and local or state public health agencies. Healthcare workers must follow on-going developments related to the outbreak, especially new information concerning detection and management.", "Healthcare workers must follow on-going developments related to the outbreak, especially new information concerning detection and management. 8, 9 The 3I Tool outlined in this paper is consistent with current US CDC guidelines and can be applied in a variety of settings such as those in emergency departments, urgent-care clinics, physicians' offices, and prehospital settings. This paper will first briefly review 2019-nCoV and then present the novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool as modified from its initial conception for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies.", "This paper will first briefly review 2019-nCoV and then present the novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool as modified from its initial conception for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies. 18 Coronavirus 2019-nCoV infection commonly presents with signs and symptoms of pneumonia or as a nonspecific lower respiratory illness, with coughing or difficulty breathing accompanied by fever. 5, 19, 20 Fever and cough constitute the most common presentations.", "5, 19, 20 Fever and cough constitute the most common presentations. However, patients may have other respiratory symptoms, sore throat, nasal congestion, malaise, myalgia, and headache. Bilateral infiltrates may be seen on chest X-ray. Severe cases may present with sepsis and even shock.", "Severe cases may present with sepsis and even shock. Conversely, some patients may present as only mildly ill or asymptomatic altogether. 21 To date, patients with underlying medical conditions and the elderly are more likely to become severely ill, require hospitalization, and ultimately die.", "21 To date, patients with underlying medical conditions and the elderly are more likely to become severely ill, require hospitalization, and ultimately die. 22 Early predictions for incubation time are between 2 and 14 days, based on data from similar coronaviruses. The 14-day criterion for epidemiological risk assumes the longest estimated incubation time.", "The 14-day criterion for epidemiological risk assumes the longest estimated incubation time. 23 In addition, the World Health Organization WHO has created its own interim case definition. 24 By definition, the main features of a novel virus, for example, how it is transmitted, will not be immediately known.", "24 By definition, the main features of a novel virus, for example, how it is transmitted, will not be immediately known. However, as with the development of any 3I Tool, it is essential to understand specific characteristics of the disease. In the case of a novel virus such as 2019-CoV, this is challenging since information is rapidly evolving and the science is not yet fully understood.", "In the case of a novel virus such as 2019-CoV, this is challenging since information is rapidly evolving and the science is not yet fully understood. It is possible that the virus will undergo mutations over time that could substantially change its The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus Koenig et al. features.", "features. Nevertheless, an appreciation of the key concepts that drive evidence-based management is beneficial Table 1 . Management guidance will likely change over time. With the initial discovery of a new potential public health threat, it will likely be unclear how patients become sick.", "With the initial discovery of a new potential public health threat, it will likely be unclear how patients become sick. For example, rather than a contagion, there could be a contaminant or a toxin responsible for signs and symptoms. In this case, the possibility of an environmental toxin in the Wuhan Market was a consideration early on when limited to no human-tohuman transmission was reported.", "In this case, the possibility of an environmental toxin in the Wuhan Market was a consideration early on when limited to no human-tohuman transmission was reported. The mode of transmission has implications for the types of personal protective equipment PPE needed to protect healthcare providers in the prehospital, clinic, and hospital settings. 25 In addition, patients may need decontamination after exposure to certain toxins.", "25 In addition, patients may need decontamination after exposure to certain toxins. 26 Another important consideration for application of the 3I Tool is whether the disease is contagious prior to symptom onset like measles or only after symptoms develop like Ebola . A January 30, 2020 letter to the New England Journal of Medicine describes a purported confirmed instance of transmission from an asymptomatic individual.", "A January 30, 2020 letter to the New England Journal of Medicine describes a purported confirmed instance of transmission from an asymptomatic individual. Researchers state that, before symptom onset, the primary case infected two individuals, one of which infected two additional colleagues. 27 Subsequent investigation suggested that the source patient did have mild symptoms and had taken an antipyretic, calling this reported asymptomatic transmission into question.", "27 Subsequent investigation suggested that the source patient did have mild symptoms and had taken an antipyretic, calling this reported asymptomatic transmission into question. While quarantine may not be feasible and can have unintended consequences, 28, 29, 30 it is a public health tool that can be considered in cases when disease is transmissible before symptom onset. 30 Conversely, if a disease is known not to be transmissible prior to symptom onset, asymptomatic exposed patients must be monitored, but do not require quarantine or isolation unless they develop symptoms.", "30 Conversely, if a disease is known not to be transmissible prior to symptom onset, asymptomatic exposed patients must be monitored, but do not require quarantine or isolation unless they develop symptoms. Initially, it may be unclear whether an infectious agent occurred naturally or was deliberately or accidentally released. In this case, a BSL-4 laboratory studying coronaviruses was located approximately 32 kilometers away from the market where initial exposures were felt to occur.", "In this case, a BSL-4 laboratory studying coronaviruses was located approximately 32 kilometers away from the market where initial exposures were felt to occur. 31 Recall that in 2001, the anthrax letter attacks were initially thought to be naturally occurring. Once determined to be bioterrorism, management of the event was similar to that for a chemical exposure with a sudden impact, defined scene, and need for a rapid response and decontamination on site.", "Once determined to be bioterrorism, management of the event was similar to that for a chemical exposure with a sudden impact, defined scene, and need for a rapid response and decontamination on site. This differed from the WHO's modeling predicting an aerosolized release that would result in an incubation period with 100,000 or more persons exposed rather than the 22 people who contracted anthrax in 2001. 32 By understanding the key features of a novel disease, healthcare workers can take evidence-based measures to protect themselves, optimize individual patient management, and prevent further disease spread.", "32 By understanding the key features of a novel disease, healthcare workers can take evidence-based measures to protect themselves, optimize individual patient management, and prevent further disease spread. It is currently unclear how 2019-nCoV is spread, but it is suspected to be transmitted through contact with infected respiratory secretions, like other known coronaviruses. There are instances of sustained human-to-human transmission across generations of cases, especially near the epicenter in Wuhan City.", "There are instances of sustained human-to-human transmission across generations of cases, especially near the epicenter in Wuhan City. 21 Current evidence suggests that close contact with an infected person is a major factor in disease transmission. CDC defines \"close contact\" 33 as being in or within two meters of an area with a confirmed patient or being directly exposed to infectious secretions without appropriate PPE.", "CDC defines \"close contact\" 33 as being in or within two meters of an area with a confirmed patient or being directly exposed to infectious secretions without appropriate PPE. Healthcare facilities in China have reported spread from person to person. In addition, some mildly ill or potentially even asymptomatic patients may have a higher chance of spreading the disease to others as they may be less likely to seek medical care.", "In addition, some mildly ill or potentially even asymptomatic patients may have a higher chance of spreading the disease to others as they may be less likely to seek medical care. 34 The possibility that patients may be infectious prior to symptom onset further compounds the difficulty of containing the virus and effectively preventing transmission. The current majority of 2019-nCoV cases have been within China and its bordering countries.", "The current majority of 2019-nCoV cases have been within China and its bordering countries. 2 Persons with recent travel within 14 days to Wuhan City or another region with widespread disease, or exposure to a patient under investigation, are considered to have an epidemiologic risk factor and should be assessed for signs and symptoms of a viral illness such as fever and respiratory symptoms. Coronavirus is a zoonotic virus The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus that is transmitted to humans via contact with infected animals.", "Coronavirus is a zoonotic virus The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus that is transmitted to humans via contact with infected animals. Preliminary reports suggest the disease may have originated in a seafood and live animal market in Wuhan City, but it is still unknown how or whether such transmission occurred. Clinicians working with local public health departments must arrange to have specimens from patients under investigation PUIs sent to the CDC laboratory.", "Clinicians working with local public health departments must arrange to have specimens from patients under investigation PUIs sent to the CDC laboratory. At this time, the CDC has the only laboratory that can definitively test for 2019-nCoV, though laboratory testing capacity is being rapidly expanded. Polymerase chain reaction PCR assays conducted on samples from a patient's upper and lower respiratory tracts will be used to confirm potential cases.", "Polymerase chain reaction PCR assays conducted on samples from a patient's upper and lower respiratory tracts will be used to confirm potential cases. In addition, serum antibody titers can be analyzed for confirmation of infection or evidence of immunity. Up-to-date information about the needed specimens and handling requirements to test for 2019-nCoV are available on the CDC website.", "Up-to-date information about the needed specimens and handling requirements to test for 2019-nCoV are available on the CDC website. 35 Like other related coronaviruses, patients with 2019-nCoV frequently present with non-specific symptoms resembling that of influenza. Physicians may consider differential diagnoses related to a wide variety of respiratory infections.", "Physicians may consider differential diagnoses related to a wide variety of respiratory infections. In order to relate these symptoms to 2019-nCoV, it is imperative that the identification of a potential exposure event epidemiologic risk factor within 14 days of symptom onset is made so that a more focused work-up for 2019-nCoV can be completed. Although the likelihood of coinfection of 2019-nCoV and another respiratory virus is thought to be low, a positive finding of another respiratory pathogen does not exclude the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV.", "Although the likelihood of coinfection of 2019-nCoV and another respiratory virus is thought to be low, a positive finding of another respiratory pathogen does not exclude the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. Many commercially available respiratory panels include \"coronavirus\" in the results, but neither a positive nor a negative finding on these panels should be used to include or exclude a diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. Supportive care with appropriate infection control is the mainstay of current CDC treatment guidelines for 2019-nCoV.", "Supportive care with appropriate infection control is the mainstay of current CDC treatment guidelines for 2019-nCoV. There are not yet any approved antiviral treatments for 2019-nCoV. Emergency Use Authorizations EUA for compassionate use cases may be forthcoming from the US federal government for normally unapproved treatments. Supportive treatment predominantly includes respiratory support, hydration, and antipyretics.", "Supportive treatment predominantly includes respiratory support, hydration, and antipyretics. General treatment for severe cases should focus on the preservation of vital organ function. In the future, antiviral medications may be available. If a secondary bacterial infection such as pneumonia develops, targeted antibiotics are indicated.", "If a secondary bacterial infection such as pneumonia develops, targeted antibiotics are indicated. Prevention of 2019-nCoV transmission, like any other infectious agent, involves minimizing risk of exposure. Vaccines are under accelerated development and may be useful in the future for post-exposure prophylaxis.", "Vaccines are under accelerated development and may be useful in the future for post-exposure prophylaxis. Healthcare personnel are at increased risk and should practice standard, droplet, and airborne precautions when encountering an infected person, a PUI, or any symptomatic close contacts. Healthcare workers handling specimens should also adhere to CDC guidelines and should not attempt to perform any virus isolation or characterization.", "Healthcare workers handling specimens should also adhere to CDC guidelines and should not attempt to perform any virus isolation or characterization. Fever screening has been implemented at numerous airports, including major international hubs within Asia and the US. The efficacy of this intervention is not well documented, however, as some infected persons may be afebrile and disease transmission might occur prior to symptom onset.", "The efficacy of this intervention is not well documented, however, as some infected persons may be afebrile and disease transmission might occur prior to symptom onset. 27 In addition, people can artificially lower their temperature readings, e.g., by applying ice to their foreheads. As outlined above, admission criteria for 2019-nCoV are similar to that of other patients.", "As outlined above, admission criteria for 2019-nCoV are similar to that of other patients. If patients do not meet medical criteria for hospitalization, they may be discharged home with isolation precautions and continued observation. EPs must notify local public health authorities so appropriate monitoring and community protective measures can be instituted.", "EPs must notify local public health authorities so appropriate monitoring and community protective measures can be instituted. The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool was initially developed for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies. 18 This novel tool for suspected 2019-nCoV patients Figure 1 provides frontline clinicians with a simple algorithm to manage an emerging disease.", "18 This novel tool for suspected 2019-nCoV patients Figure 1 provides frontline clinicians with a simple algorithm to manage an emerging disease. Identification of exposed patients with an epidemiologic risk factor within 14 days of symptom onset is a crucial first step. An automatic prompt in the electronic health record can be useful in assisting clinicians with early identification of patients at risk.", "An automatic prompt in the electronic health record can be useful in assisting clinicians with early identification of patients at risk. Case definitions promulgated by the WHO 24 and CDC 33 provide useful comprehensive definitions that have been incorporated into the 3I Tool. The 2019-nCoV Tool provides an accurate, summarized algorithm to immediately, and effectively manage suspected patients until additional resources can be consulted.", "The 2019-nCoV Tool provides an accurate, summarized algorithm to immediately, and effectively manage suspected patients until additional resources can be consulted. Patients who do not have an exposure risk or any symptoms may be triaged normally. However, before making patient contact, providers must first apply the Vital Sign Zero concept.", "However, before making patient contact, providers must first apply the Vital Sign Zero concept. 36 Vital Sign Zero is a preliminary, non-contact assessment i.e., performed prior to touching a patient to take traditional vital signs to first determine whether specific PPE is indicated before the examination commences. By taking the additional time to complete this assessment, risk of exposure and further transmission can be minimized.", "By taking the additional time to complete this assessment, risk of exposure and further transmission can be minimized. while in the treatment facility should be started and maintained to assist with the possibility of contact tracing. Following isolation, physicians should immediately inform the appropriate authorities.", "Following isolation, physicians should immediately inform the appropriate authorities. Patients who do not meet medical criteria for admission can be isolated at home during the evaluation phase. 37 Health department officials can help prevent transmission in isolated patients by providing in-home monitoring and implementing appropriate exposure-control measures.", "37 Health department officials can help prevent transmission in isolated patients by providing in-home monitoring and implementing appropriate exposure-control measures. Providers in the prehospital setting who have a high likelihood of encountering 2019-nCoV patients, such as those near international ports of entry, should adhere to established exposure control guidelines. 38 Along with appropriate PPE, providers should also carry thermometers to quantify any fever.", "38 Along with appropriate PPE, providers should also carry thermometers to quantify any fever. In the US, providers should contact the appropriate CDC quarantine station upon isolation of infected or suspected patients, especially those from Wuhan, China or other regions with widespread disease, who report symptoms in the last 14 days. As for other infectious diseases, assessing travel history is essential.", "As for other infectious diseases, assessing travel history is essential. Dispatch protocols have been instituted to facilitate identification of callers to 911 or the country-equivalent emergency number prior to prehospital personnel arrival. 39 In addition, CDC has promulgated EMS guidelines for prehospital PPE, transportation of PUIs, vehicle decontamination, and 911 Public Safety Answering Points PSAPs for 2019-nCoV.", "39 In addition, CDC has promulgated EMS guidelines for prehospital PPE, transportation of PUIs, vehicle decontamination, and 911 Public Safety Answering Points PSAPs for 2019-nCoV. 40 2019-nCoV is an emerging infectious disease with rapidly evolving features, the full scope of which will be defined over time. Prior outbreaks of coronaviruses can help inform needed actions in the short term to assist with both treatment of individual patients and prevention of global disease spread.", "Prior outbreaks of coronaviruses can help inform needed actions in the short term to assist with both treatment of individual patients and prevention of global disease spread. This adaptation of the Identify-Isolate-Inform Tool serves as a resource for healthcare workers who need to make clear, rapid assessments when confronted with potential patients. The concise nature of the 2019-nCoV 3I Tool allows for the rapid and effective management of a novel disease by healthcare providers." ]

[ "2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is an emerging infectious disease closely related to MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV that was first reported in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. As of January 2020, cases of 2019-nCoV are continuing to be reported in other Eastern Asian countries as well as in the United States, Europe, Australia, and numerous other countries. An unusually high volume of domestic and international travel corresponding to the beginning of the 2020 Chinese New Year complicated initial identification and containment of infected persons.", "An unusually high volume of domestic and international travel corresponding to the beginning of the 2020 Chinese New Year complicated initial identification and containment of infected persons. Due to the rapidly rising number of cases and reported deaths, all countries should be considered at risk of imported 2019-nCoV. Therefore, it is essential for prehospital, clinic, and emergency department personnel to be able to rapidly assess 2019-nCoV risk and take immediate actions if indicated.", "Therefore, it is essential for prehospital, clinic, and emergency department personnel to be able to rapidly assess 2019-nCoV risk and take immediate actions if indicated. The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool, originally conceived for the initial detection and management of Ebola virus and later adjusted for other infectious agents, can be adapted for any emerging infectious disease. This paper reports a modification of the 3I Tool for use in the initial detection and management of patients under investigation for 2019-nCoV.", "This paper reports a modification of the 3I Tool for use in the initial detection and management of patients under investigation for 2019-nCoV. After initial assessment for symptoms and epidemiological risk factors, including travel to affected areas and exposure to confirmed 2019-nCoV patients within 14 days, patients are classified in a risk-stratified system. Upon confirmation of a suspected 2019-nCoV case, affected persons must immediately be placed in airborne infection isolation and the appropriate public health agencies notified.", "Upon confirmation of a suspected 2019-nCoV case, affected persons must immediately be placed in airborne infection isolation and the appropriate public health agencies notified. This modified 3I Tool will assist emergency and primary care clinicians, as well as out-of-hospital providers, in effectively managing persons with suspected or confirmed 2019-nCoV. Text: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is a novel respiratory disease first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019.", "Text: 2019 Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is a novel respiratory disease first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. 1 Chinese health officials were originally investigating a sudden increase in cases of pneumonia which were later determined to be linked to 2019-nCoV. While most cases originated within mainland China, the disease spread to neighboring countries including Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan, and later to the United States, Europe, and Australia.", "While most cases originated within mainland China, the disease spread to neighboring countries including Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan, and later to the United States, Europe, and Australia. A near real-time updated tracking website for cases and locations worldwide, along with reported deaths is available. 2 Chinese health authorities have sequenced 2019-nCoV and freely shared its genetic profile online.", "2 Chinese health authorities have sequenced 2019-nCoV and freely shared its genetic profile online. 3, 4 Additionally, on January 28, 2020, an Australian laboratory reported growing the virus from a patient sample. As of January 30, 2020, there have been at least 9,776 persons infected and 213 verified deaths.", "As of January 30, 2020, there have been at least 9,776 persons infected and 213 verified deaths. 2 These numbers are likely underestimates due to the limited information available regarding incubation time, transmissibility, and virus origin. The What was the research question?", "The What was the research question? Investigators adapted the \"Identify, Isolate, Inform\" 3I Tool for use in suspected cases of 2019-nCoV. What was the major finding of the study? A novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool is designed for frontline clinicians in the management of suspected patients.", "A novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool is designed for frontline clinicians in the management of suspected patients. This 2019-nCoV 3I adaptation will aid healthcare providers most likely to encounter the disease in the containment and effective treatment of patients. age distribution of these verified deaths is currently not available.", "age distribution of these verified deaths is currently not available. One preliminary, small-scale study of 41 patients in Wuhan China, reported 6 deaths 15% mortality with a median age of 49.0 years. 5 Additionally, transmission of the virus has reportedly occurred in healthcare facilities in Wuhan City, raising concerns of spread to healthcare workers, as was seen during prior outbreaks of the novel coronaviruses, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS .", "5 Additionally, transmission of the virus has reportedly occurred in healthcare facilities in Wuhan City, raising concerns of spread to healthcare workers, as was seen during prior outbreaks of the novel coronaviruses, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS . Due to the dynamic nature of the outbreak, exposure criteria may change depending on where new cases of 2019-nCoV are detected, the degree of transmissibility, and when additional information regarding the origin of the virus is discovered and reported. On January 15, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC confirmed the first known imported case of 2019-nCoV in the US state of Washington.", "On January 15, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC confirmed the first known imported case of 2019-nCoV in the US state of Washington. The patient had recently returned from Wuhan City, where he likely contracted the disease. Chicago health authorities reported a second US case on January 24, 2020.", "Chicago health authorities reported a second US case on January 24, 2020. This was quickly followed by additional imported cases reported in Orange and Los Angeles Counties, California on January 26, 2020. Additional suspected cases continue to be evaluated.", "Additional suspected cases continue to be evaluated. On January 30, 2020, the CDC reported the first local transmission in the US between members in a household. On the same day, the World Health Organization declared 2019-nCoV to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern PHEIC .", "On the same day, the World Health Organization declared 2019-nCoV to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern PHEIC . 6 On January 31, 2020, the US Department of Health and Human Services declared coronavirus a public health emergency. 7 Healthy individuals and those with mild illness may be asymptomatic, while others may have more pronounced symptoms of fever or lower respiratory illness.", "7 Healthy individuals and those with mild illness may be asymptomatic, while others may have more pronounced symptoms of fever or lower respiratory illness. Upon identification of a suspected patient, that individual should immediately be isolated with airborne precautions. Further workup and laboratory confirmation can then proceed.", "Further workup and laboratory confirmation can then proceed. Emergency physicians EPs , emergency medical services EMS personnel, and other healthcare workers who encounter patients with suspected 2019-nCoV infection must inform the appropriate authorities, including but not limited to hospital infection control and local or state public health agencies. Healthcare workers must follow on-going developments related to the outbreak, especially new information concerning detection and management.", "Healthcare workers must follow on-going developments related to the outbreak, especially new information concerning detection and management. 8, 9 The 3I Tool outlined in this paper is consistent with current US CDC guidelines and can be applied in a variety of settings such as those in emergency departments, urgent-care clinics, physicians' offices, and prehospital settings. This paper will first briefly review 2019-nCoV and then present the novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool as modified from its initial conception for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies.", "This paper will first briefly review 2019-nCoV and then present the novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool as modified from its initial conception for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies. 18 Coronavirus 2019-nCoV infection commonly presents with signs and symptoms of pneumonia or as a nonspecific lower respiratory illness, with coughing or difficulty breathing accompanied by fever. 5, 19, 20 Fever and cough constitute the most common presentations.", "5, 19, 20 Fever and cough constitute the most common presentations. However, patients may have other respiratory symptoms, sore throat, nasal congestion, malaise, myalgia, and headache. Bilateral infiltrates may be seen on chest X-ray. Severe cases may present with sepsis and even shock.", "Severe cases may present with sepsis and even shock. Conversely, some patients may present as only mildly ill or asymptomatic altogether. 21 To date, patients with underlying medical conditions and the elderly are more likely to become severely ill, require hospitalization, and ultimately die.", "21 To date, patients with underlying medical conditions and the elderly are more likely to become severely ill, require hospitalization, and ultimately die. 22 Early predictions for incubation time are between 2 and 14 days, based on data from similar coronaviruses. The 14-day criterion for epidemiological risk assumes the longest estimated incubation time.", "The 14-day criterion for epidemiological risk assumes the longest estimated incubation time. 23 In addition, the World Health Organization WHO has created its own interim case definition. 24 By definition, the main features of a novel virus, for example, how it is transmitted, will not be immediately known.", "24 By definition, the main features of a novel virus, for example, how it is transmitted, will not be immediately known. However, as with the development of any 3I Tool, it is essential to understand specific characteristics of the disease. In the case of a novel virus such as 2019-CoV, this is challenging since information is rapidly evolving and the science is not yet fully understood.", "In the case of a novel virus such as 2019-CoV, this is challenging since information is rapidly evolving and the science is not yet fully understood. It is possible that the virus will undergo mutations over time that could substantially change its The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus Koenig et al. features.", "features. Nevertheless, an appreciation of the key concepts that drive evidence-based management is beneficial Table 1 . Management guidance will likely change over time. With the initial discovery of a new potential public health threat, it will likely be unclear how patients become sick.", "With the initial discovery of a new potential public health threat, it will likely be unclear how patients become sick. For example, rather than a contagion, there could be a contaminant or a toxin responsible for signs and symptoms. In this case, the possibility of an environmental toxin in the Wuhan Market was a consideration early on when limited to no human-tohuman transmission was reported.", "In this case, the possibility of an environmental toxin in the Wuhan Market was a consideration early on when limited to no human-tohuman transmission was reported. The mode of transmission has implications for the types of personal protective equipment PPE needed to protect healthcare providers in the prehospital, clinic, and hospital settings. 25 In addition, patients may need decontamination after exposure to certain toxins.", "25 In addition, patients may need decontamination after exposure to certain toxins. 26 Another important consideration for application of the 3I Tool is whether the disease is contagious prior to symptom onset like measles or only after symptoms develop like Ebola . A January 30, 2020 letter to the New England Journal of Medicine describes a purported confirmed instance of transmission from an asymptomatic individual.", "A January 30, 2020 letter to the New England Journal of Medicine describes a purported confirmed instance of transmission from an asymptomatic individual. Researchers state that, before symptom onset, the primary case infected two individuals, one of which infected two additional colleagues. 27 Subsequent investigation suggested that the source patient did have mild symptoms and had taken an antipyretic, calling this reported asymptomatic transmission into question.", "27 Subsequent investigation suggested that the source patient did have mild symptoms and had taken an antipyretic, calling this reported asymptomatic transmission into question. While quarantine may not be feasible and can have unintended consequences, 28, 29, 30 it is a public health tool that can be considered in cases when disease is transmissible before symptom onset. 30 Conversely, if a disease is known not to be transmissible prior to symptom onset, asymptomatic exposed patients must be monitored, but do not require quarantine or isolation unless they develop symptoms.", "30 Conversely, if a disease is known not to be transmissible prior to symptom onset, asymptomatic exposed patients must be monitored, but do not require quarantine or isolation unless they develop symptoms. Initially, it may be unclear whether an infectious agent occurred naturally or was deliberately or accidentally released. In this case, a BSL-4 laboratory studying coronaviruses was located approximately 32 kilometers away from the market where initial exposures were felt to occur.", "In this case, a BSL-4 laboratory studying coronaviruses was located approximately 32 kilometers away from the market where initial exposures were felt to occur. 31 Recall that in 2001, the anthrax letter attacks were initially thought to be naturally occurring. Once determined to be bioterrorism, management of the event was similar to that for a chemical exposure with a sudden impact, defined scene, and need for a rapid response and decontamination on site.", "Once determined to be bioterrorism, management of the event was similar to that for a chemical exposure with a sudden impact, defined scene, and need for a rapid response and decontamination on site. This differed from the WHO's modeling predicting an aerosolized release that would result in an incubation period with 100,000 or more persons exposed rather than the 22 people who contracted anthrax in 2001. 32 By understanding the key features of a novel disease, healthcare workers can take evidence-based measures to protect themselves, optimize individual patient management, and prevent further disease spread.", "32 By understanding the key features of a novel disease, healthcare workers can take evidence-based measures to protect themselves, optimize individual patient management, and prevent further disease spread. It is currently unclear how 2019-nCoV is spread, but it is suspected to be transmitted through contact with infected respiratory secretions, like other known coronaviruses. There are instances of sustained human-to-human transmission across generations of cases, especially near the epicenter in Wuhan City.", "There are instances of sustained human-to-human transmission across generations of cases, especially near the epicenter in Wuhan City. 21 Current evidence suggests that close contact with an infected person is a major factor in disease transmission. CDC defines \"close contact\" 33 as being in or within two meters of an area with a confirmed patient or being directly exposed to infectious secretions without appropriate PPE.", "CDC defines \"close contact\" 33 as being in or within two meters of an area with a confirmed patient or being directly exposed to infectious secretions without appropriate PPE. Healthcare facilities in China have reported spread from person to person. In addition, some mildly ill or potentially even asymptomatic patients may have a higher chance of spreading the disease to others as they may be less likely to seek medical care.", "In addition, some mildly ill or potentially even asymptomatic patients may have a higher chance of spreading the disease to others as they may be less likely to seek medical care. 34 The possibility that patients may be infectious prior to symptom onset further compounds the difficulty of containing the virus and effectively preventing transmission. The current majority of 2019-nCoV cases have been within China and its bordering countries.", "The current majority of 2019-nCoV cases have been within China and its bordering countries. 2 Persons with recent travel within 14 days to Wuhan City or another region with widespread disease, or exposure to a patient under investigation, are considered to have an epidemiologic risk factor and should be assessed for signs and symptoms of a viral illness such as fever and respiratory symptoms. Coronavirus is a zoonotic virus The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus that is transmitted to humans via contact with infected animals.", "Coronavirus is a zoonotic virus The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus that is transmitted to humans via contact with infected animals. Preliminary reports suggest the disease may have originated in a seafood and live animal market in Wuhan City, but it is still unknown how or whether such transmission occurred. Clinicians working with local public health departments must arrange to have specimens from patients under investigation PUIs sent to the CDC laboratory.", "Clinicians working with local public health departments must arrange to have specimens from patients under investigation PUIs sent to the CDC laboratory. At this time, the CDC has the only laboratory that can definitively test for 2019-nCoV, though laboratory testing capacity is being rapidly expanded. Polymerase chain reaction PCR assays conducted on samples from a patient's upper and lower respiratory tracts will be used to confirm potential cases.", "Polymerase chain reaction PCR assays conducted on samples from a patient's upper and lower respiratory tracts will be used to confirm potential cases. In addition, serum antibody titers can be analyzed for confirmation of infection or evidence of immunity. Up-to-date information about the needed specimens and handling requirements to test for 2019-nCoV are available on the CDC website.", "Up-to-date information about the needed specimens and handling requirements to test for 2019-nCoV are available on the CDC website. 35 Like other related coronaviruses, patients with 2019-nCoV frequently present with non-specific symptoms resembling that of influenza. Physicians may consider differential diagnoses related to a wide variety of respiratory infections.", "Physicians may consider differential diagnoses related to a wide variety of respiratory infections. In order to relate these symptoms to 2019-nCoV, it is imperative that the identification of a potential exposure event epidemiologic risk factor within 14 days of symptom onset is made so that a more focused work-up for 2019-nCoV can be completed. Although the likelihood of coinfection of 2019-nCoV and another respiratory virus is thought to be low, a positive finding of another respiratory pathogen does not exclude the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV.", "Although the likelihood of coinfection of 2019-nCoV and another respiratory virus is thought to be low, a positive finding of another respiratory pathogen does not exclude the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. Many commercially available respiratory panels include \"coronavirus\" in the results, but neither a positive nor a negative finding on these panels should be used to include or exclude a diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. Supportive care with appropriate infection control is the mainstay of current CDC treatment guidelines for 2019-nCoV.", "Supportive care with appropriate infection control is the mainstay of current CDC treatment guidelines for 2019-nCoV. There are not yet any approved antiviral treatments for 2019-nCoV. Emergency Use Authorizations EUA for compassionate use cases may be forthcoming from the US federal government for normally unapproved treatments. Supportive treatment predominantly includes respiratory support, hydration, and antipyretics.", "Supportive treatment predominantly includes respiratory support, hydration, and antipyretics. General treatment for severe cases should focus on the preservation of vital organ function. In the future, antiviral medications may be available. If a secondary bacterial infection such as pneumonia develops, targeted antibiotics are indicated.", "If a secondary bacterial infection such as pneumonia develops, targeted antibiotics are indicated. Prevention of 2019-nCoV transmission, like any other infectious agent, involves minimizing risk of exposure. Vaccines are under accelerated development and may be useful in the future for post-exposure prophylaxis.", "Vaccines are under accelerated development and may be useful in the future for post-exposure prophylaxis. Healthcare personnel are at increased risk and should practice standard, droplet, and airborne precautions when encountering an infected person, a PUI, or any symptomatic close contacts. Healthcare workers handling specimens should also adhere to CDC guidelines and should not attempt to perform any virus isolation or characterization.", "Healthcare workers handling specimens should also adhere to CDC guidelines and should not attempt to perform any virus isolation or characterization. Fever screening has been implemented at numerous airports, including major international hubs within Asia and the US. The efficacy of this intervention is not well documented, however, as some infected persons may be afebrile and disease transmission might occur prior to symptom onset.", "The efficacy of this intervention is not well documented, however, as some infected persons may be afebrile and disease transmission might occur prior to symptom onset. 27 In addition, people can artificially lower their temperature readings, e.g., by applying ice to their foreheads. As outlined above, admission criteria for 2019-nCoV are similar to that of other patients.", "As outlined above, admission criteria for 2019-nCoV are similar to that of other patients. If patients do not meet medical criteria for hospitalization, they may be discharged home with isolation precautions and continued observation. EPs must notify local public health authorities so appropriate monitoring and community protective measures can be instituted.", "EPs must notify local public health authorities so appropriate monitoring and community protective measures can be instituted. The Identify-Isolate-Inform 3I Tool was initially developed for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies. 18 This novel tool for suspected 2019-nCoV patients Figure 1 provides frontline clinicians with a simple algorithm to manage an emerging disease.", "18 This novel tool for suspected 2019-nCoV patients Figure 1 provides frontline clinicians with a simple algorithm to manage an emerging disease. Identification of exposed patients with an epidemiologic risk factor within 14 days of symptom onset is a crucial first step. An automatic prompt in the electronic health record can be useful in assisting clinicians with early identification of patients at risk.", "An automatic prompt in the electronic health record can be useful in assisting clinicians with early identification of patients at risk. Case definitions promulgated by the WHO 24 and CDC 33 provide useful comprehensive definitions that have been incorporated into the 3I Tool. The 2019-nCoV Tool provides an accurate, summarized algorithm to immediately, and effectively manage suspected patients until additional resources can be consulted.", "The 2019-nCoV Tool provides an accurate, summarized algorithm to immediately, and effectively manage suspected patients until additional resources can be consulted. Patients who do not have an exposure risk or any symptoms may be triaged normally. However, before making patient contact, providers must first apply the Vital Sign Zero concept.", "However, before making patient contact, providers must first apply the Vital Sign Zero concept. 36 Vital Sign Zero is a preliminary, non-contact assessment i.e., performed prior to touching a patient to take traditional vital signs to first determine whether specific PPE is indicated before the examination commences. By taking the additional time to complete this assessment, risk of exposure and further transmission can be minimized.", "By taking the additional time to complete this assessment, risk of exposure and further transmission can be minimized. while in the treatment facility should be started and maintained to assist with the possibility of contact tracing. Following isolation, physicians should immediately inform the appropriate authorities.", "Following isolation, physicians should immediately inform the appropriate authorities. Patients who do not meet medical criteria for admission can be isolated at home during the evaluation phase. 37 Health department officials can help prevent transmission in isolated patients by providing in-home monitoring and implementing appropriate exposure-control measures.", "37 Health department officials can help prevent transmission in isolated patients by providing in-home monitoring and implementing appropriate exposure-control measures. Providers in the prehospital setting who have a high likelihood of encountering 2019-nCoV patients, such as those near international ports of entry, should adhere to established exposure control guidelines. 38 Along with appropriate PPE, providers should also carry thermometers to quantify any fever.", "38 Along with appropriate PPE, providers should also carry thermometers to quantify any fever. In the US, providers should contact the appropriate CDC quarantine station upon isolation of infected or suspected patients, especially those from Wuhan, China or other regions with widespread disease, who report symptoms in the last 14 days. As for other infectious diseases, assessing travel history is essential.", "As for other infectious diseases, assessing travel history is essential. Dispatch protocols have been instituted to facilitate identification of callers to 911 or the country-equivalent emergency number prior to prehospital personnel arrival. 39 In addition, CDC has promulgated EMS guidelines for prehospital PPE, transportation of PUIs, vehicle decontamination, and 911 Public Safety Answering Points PSAPs for 2019-nCoV.", "39 In addition, CDC has promulgated EMS guidelines for prehospital PPE, transportation of PUIs, vehicle decontamination, and 911 Public Safety Answering Points PSAPs for 2019-nCoV. 40 2019-nCoV is an emerging infectious disease with rapidly evolving features, the full scope of which will be defined over time. Prior outbreaks of coronaviruses can help inform needed actions in the short term to assist with both treatment of individual patients and prevention of global disease spread.", "Prior outbreaks of coronaviruses can help inform needed actions in the short term to assist with both treatment of individual patients and prevention of global disease spread. This adaptation of the Identify-Isolate-Inform Tool serves as a resource for healthcare workers who need to make clear, rapid assessments when confronted with potential patients. The concise nature of the 2019-nCoV 3I Tool allows for the rapid and effective management of a novel disease by healthcare providers." ]

[ "nan Text: Over 168 million people across 50 countries are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2020 . Response to epidemics in complex humanitarian crisessuch as the recent cholera epidemic in Yemen and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congois a global health challenge of increasing scale . The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings.", "The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings. The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 SARS-CoV-2 may represent a still greater threat to those in complex humanitarian crises, which lack the infrastructure, support, and health systems to mount a comprehensive response. Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings.", "Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings. Populations affected by humanitarian crises are expected to be particularly susceptible to COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, due to displacement, crowded housing, malnutrition, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene WASH tools, and stigmatization. Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems.", "Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems. These situations escalate both the necessity and the difficulty of delivering accurate and actionable information to potentially affected populations . As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts.", "As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts. These standard public health measures are particularly difficult to perform in humanitarian settings. For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing.", "For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing. Providing the limited healthcare worker cadre with appropriate training and personal protective equipment, and ensuring a continuous supply chain for such, is a challenge in all settings, exacerbated in complex humanitarian crises. Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing.", "Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing. Finally, intractable structural challenges such as overcrowding limit the implementation of both quarantine of those exposed and isolation of those who are ill. Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic.", "Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic. Resources must be identified to protect healthcare workers, develop and deploy rapid testing, improve surveillance, and enact quarantine and isolation of contacts and cases. To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses.", "To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses. Respiratory hygiene is a highly effective public health intervention, supported by evidence demonstrating that the spread of respiratory viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, can be prevented by hand hygiene, safe cough practice, and social distancing . Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% .", "Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% . Furthermore, hand hygiene is an avenue of agency for protecting one's own health, consistent with the rights to dignity and to fully participate in decisions related to assistance in humanitarian crises. Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production .", "Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production . The Sphere Handbook, a collection of rights-based guidelines for humanitarian response, is the foremost authority on minimum standards for humanitarian assistance . However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines .", "However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines . And yet, latrines in crisis settings are often shared and distant from residential shelters, conferring a high risk of gender-based violence . Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission.", "Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission. Evidence-based guidelines alone in complex humanitarian crises may not suffice during the emergence of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response.", "Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response. Crisis-affected community engagement is integral in pandemic planning, in order to maximize the real-world effectiveness of efficacious interventions. Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations .", "Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations . Diplomacy bridging long-standing mistrust of public health and biomedical interventions and facilitating engagement with contentious actors is a necessary component of effective health governance in complex crisis settings . Interventions tailored to the needs of crisis-affected populations, delivered with transparent information, in the context of inclusive governance practices, are urgently needed in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic." ]

[ "nan Text: Over 168 million people across 50 countries are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2020 . Response to epidemics in complex humanitarian crisessuch as the recent cholera epidemic in Yemen and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congois a global health challenge of increasing scale . The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings.", "The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings. The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 SARS-CoV-2 may represent a still greater threat to those in complex humanitarian crises, which lack the infrastructure, support, and health systems to mount a comprehensive response. Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings.", "Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings. Populations affected by humanitarian crises are expected to be particularly susceptible to COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, due to displacement, crowded housing, malnutrition, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene WASH tools, and stigmatization. Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems.", "Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems. These situations escalate both the necessity and the difficulty of delivering accurate and actionable information to potentially affected populations . As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts.", "As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts. These standard public health measures are particularly difficult to perform in humanitarian settings. For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing.", "For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing. Providing the limited healthcare worker cadre with appropriate training and personal protective equipment, and ensuring a continuous supply chain for such, is a challenge in all settings, exacerbated in complex humanitarian crises. Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing.", "Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing. Finally, intractable structural challenges such as overcrowding limit the implementation of both quarantine of those exposed and isolation of those who are ill. Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic.", "Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic. Resources must be identified to protect healthcare workers, develop and deploy rapid testing, improve surveillance, and enact quarantine and isolation of contacts and cases. To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses.", "To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses. Respiratory hygiene is a highly effective public health intervention, supported by evidence demonstrating that the spread of respiratory viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, can be prevented by hand hygiene, safe cough practice, and social distancing . Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% .", "Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% . Furthermore, hand hygiene is an avenue of agency for protecting one's own health, consistent with the rights to dignity and to fully participate in decisions related to assistance in humanitarian crises. Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production .", "Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production . The Sphere Handbook, a collection of rights-based guidelines for humanitarian response, is the foremost authority on minimum standards for humanitarian assistance . However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines .", "However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines . And yet, latrines in crisis settings are often shared and distant from residential shelters, conferring a high risk of gender-based violence . Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission.", "Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission. Evidence-based guidelines alone in complex humanitarian crises may not suffice during the emergence of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response.", "Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response. Crisis-affected community engagement is integral in pandemic planning, in order to maximize the real-world effectiveness of efficacious interventions. Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations .", "Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations . Diplomacy bridging long-standing mistrust of public health and biomedical interventions and facilitating engagement with contentious actors is a necessary component of effective health governance in complex crisis settings . Interventions tailored to the needs of crisis-affected populations, delivered with transparent information, in the context of inclusive governance practices, are urgently needed in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic." ]

[ "nan Text: Over 168 million people across 50 countries are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2020 . Response to epidemics in complex humanitarian crisessuch as the recent cholera epidemic in Yemen and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congois a global health challenge of increasing scale . The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings.", "The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings. The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 SARS-CoV-2 may represent a still greater threat to those in complex humanitarian crises, which lack the infrastructure, support, and health systems to mount a comprehensive response. Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings.", "Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings. Populations affected by humanitarian crises are expected to be particularly susceptible to COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, due to displacement, crowded housing, malnutrition, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene WASH tools, and stigmatization. Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems.", "Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems. These situations escalate both the necessity and the difficulty of delivering accurate and actionable information to potentially affected populations . As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts.", "As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts. These standard public health measures are particularly difficult to perform in humanitarian settings. For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing.", "For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing. Providing the limited healthcare worker cadre with appropriate training and personal protective equipment, and ensuring a continuous supply chain for such, is a challenge in all settings, exacerbated in complex humanitarian crises. Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing.", "Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing. Finally, intractable structural challenges such as overcrowding limit the implementation of both quarantine of those exposed and isolation of those who are ill. Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic.", "Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic. Resources must be identified to protect healthcare workers, develop and deploy rapid testing, improve surveillance, and enact quarantine and isolation of contacts and cases. To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses.", "To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses. Respiratory hygiene is a highly effective public health intervention, supported by evidence demonstrating that the spread of respiratory viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, can be prevented by hand hygiene, safe cough practice, and social distancing . Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% .", "Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% . Furthermore, hand hygiene is an avenue of agency for protecting one's own health, consistent with the rights to dignity and to fully participate in decisions related to assistance in humanitarian crises. Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production .", "Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production . The Sphere Handbook, a collection of rights-based guidelines for humanitarian response, is the foremost authority on minimum standards for humanitarian assistance . However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines .", "However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines . And yet, latrines in crisis settings are often shared and distant from residential shelters, conferring a high risk of gender-based violence . Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission.", "Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission. Evidence-based guidelines alone in complex humanitarian crises may not suffice during the emergence of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response.", "Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response. Crisis-affected community engagement is integral in pandemic planning, in order to maximize the real-world effectiveness of efficacious interventions. Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations .", "Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations . Diplomacy bridging long-standing mistrust of public health and biomedical interventions and facilitating engagement with contentious actors is a necessary component of effective health governance in complex crisis settings . Interventions tailored to the needs of crisis-affected populations, delivered with transparent information, in the context of inclusive governance practices, are urgently needed in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic." ]

[ "nan Text: Over 168 million people across 50 countries are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2020 . Response to epidemics in complex humanitarian crisessuch as the recent cholera epidemic in Yemen and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congois a global health challenge of increasing scale . The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings.", "The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings. The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 SARS-CoV-2 may represent a still greater threat to those in complex humanitarian crises, which lack the infrastructure, support, and health systems to mount a comprehensive response. Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings.", "Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings. Populations affected by humanitarian crises are expected to be particularly susceptible to COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, due to displacement, crowded housing, malnutrition, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene WASH tools, and stigmatization. Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems.", "Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems. These situations escalate both the necessity and the difficulty of delivering accurate and actionable information to potentially affected populations . As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts.", "As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts. These standard public health measures are particularly difficult to perform in humanitarian settings. For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing.", "For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing. Providing the limited healthcare worker cadre with appropriate training and personal protective equipment, and ensuring a continuous supply chain for such, is a challenge in all settings, exacerbated in complex humanitarian crises. Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing.", "Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing. Finally, intractable structural challenges such as overcrowding limit the implementation of both quarantine of those exposed and isolation of those who are ill. Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic.", "Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic. Resources must be identified to protect healthcare workers, develop and deploy rapid testing, improve surveillance, and enact quarantine and isolation of contacts and cases. To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses.", "To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses. Respiratory hygiene is a highly effective public health intervention, supported by evidence demonstrating that the spread of respiratory viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, can be prevented by hand hygiene, safe cough practice, and social distancing . Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% .", "Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% . Furthermore, hand hygiene is an avenue of agency for protecting one's own health, consistent with the rights to dignity and to fully participate in decisions related to assistance in humanitarian crises. Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production .", "Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production . The Sphere Handbook, a collection of rights-based guidelines for humanitarian response, is the foremost authority on minimum standards for humanitarian assistance . However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines .", "However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines . And yet, latrines in crisis settings are often shared and distant from residential shelters, conferring a high risk of gender-based violence . Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission.", "Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission. Evidence-based guidelines alone in complex humanitarian crises may not suffice during the emergence of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response.", "Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response. Crisis-affected community engagement is integral in pandemic planning, in order to maximize the real-world effectiveness of efficacious interventions. Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations .", "Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations . Diplomacy bridging long-standing mistrust of public health and biomedical interventions and facilitating engagement with contentious actors is a necessary component of effective health governance in complex crisis settings . Interventions tailored to the needs of crisis-affected populations, delivered with transparent information, in the context of inclusive governance practices, are urgently needed in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic." ]

[ "nan Text: Over 168 million people across 50 countries are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2020 . Response to epidemics in complex humanitarian crisessuch as the recent cholera epidemic in Yemen and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congois a global health challenge of increasing scale . The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings.", "The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings. The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 SARS-CoV-2 may represent a still greater threat to those in complex humanitarian crises, which lack the infrastructure, support, and health systems to mount a comprehensive response. Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings.", "Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings. Populations affected by humanitarian crises are expected to be particularly susceptible to COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, due to displacement, crowded housing, malnutrition, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene WASH tools, and stigmatization. Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems.", "Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems. These situations escalate both the necessity and the difficulty of delivering accurate and actionable information to potentially affected populations . As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts.", "As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts. These standard public health measures are particularly difficult to perform in humanitarian settings. For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing.", "For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing. Providing the limited healthcare worker cadre with appropriate training and personal protective equipment, and ensuring a continuous supply chain for such, is a challenge in all settings, exacerbated in complex humanitarian crises. Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing.", "Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing. Finally, intractable structural challenges such as overcrowding limit the implementation of both quarantine of those exposed and isolation of those who are ill. Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic.", "Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic. Resources must be identified to protect healthcare workers, develop and deploy rapid testing, improve surveillance, and enact quarantine and isolation of contacts and cases. To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses.", "To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses. Respiratory hygiene is a highly effective public health intervention, supported by evidence demonstrating that the spread of respiratory viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, can be prevented by hand hygiene, safe cough practice, and social distancing . Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% .", "Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% . Furthermore, hand hygiene is an avenue of agency for protecting one's own health, consistent with the rights to dignity and to fully participate in decisions related to assistance in humanitarian crises. Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production .", "Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production . The Sphere Handbook, a collection of rights-based guidelines for humanitarian response, is the foremost authority on minimum standards for humanitarian assistance . However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines .", "However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines . And yet, latrines in crisis settings are often shared and distant from residential shelters, conferring a high risk of gender-based violence . Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission.", "Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission. Evidence-based guidelines alone in complex humanitarian crises may not suffice during the emergence of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response.", "Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response. Crisis-affected community engagement is integral in pandemic planning, in order to maximize the real-world effectiveness of efficacious interventions. Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations .", "Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations . Diplomacy bridging long-standing mistrust of public health and biomedical interventions and facilitating engagement with contentious actors is a necessary component of effective health governance in complex crisis settings . Interventions tailored to the needs of crisis-affected populations, delivered with transparent information, in the context of inclusive governance practices, are urgently needed in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic." ]

[ "nan Text: Over 168 million people across 50 countries are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2020 . Response to epidemics in complex humanitarian crisessuch as the recent cholera epidemic in Yemen and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congois a global health challenge of increasing scale . The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings.", "The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings. The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 SARS-CoV-2 may represent a still greater threat to those in complex humanitarian crises, which lack the infrastructure, support, and health systems to mount a comprehensive response. Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings.", "Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings. Populations affected by humanitarian crises are expected to be particularly susceptible to COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, due to displacement, crowded housing, malnutrition, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene WASH tools, and stigmatization. Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems.", "Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems. These situations escalate both the necessity and the difficulty of delivering accurate and actionable information to potentially affected populations . As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts.", "As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts. These standard public health measures are particularly difficult to perform in humanitarian settings. For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing.", "For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing. Providing the limited healthcare worker cadre with appropriate training and personal protective equipment, and ensuring a continuous supply chain for such, is a challenge in all settings, exacerbated in complex humanitarian crises. Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing.", "Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing. Finally, intractable structural challenges such as overcrowding limit the implementation of both quarantine of those exposed and isolation of those who are ill. Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic.", "Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic. Resources must be identified to protect healthcare workers, develop and deploy rapid testing, improve surveillance, and enact quarantine and isolation of contacts and cases. To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses.", "To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses. Respiratory hygiene is a highly effective public health intervention, supported by evidence demonstrating that the spread of respiratory viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, can be prevented by hand hygiene, safe cough practice, and social distancing . Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% .", "Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% . Furthermore, hand hygiene is an avenue of agency for protecting one's own health, consistent with the rights to dignity and to fully participate in decisions related to assistance in humanitarian crises. Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production .", "Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production . The Sphere Handbook, a collection of rights-based guidelines for humanitarian response, is the foremost authority on minimum standards for humanitarian assistance . However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines .", "However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines . And yet, latrines in crisis settings are often shared and distant from residential shelters, conferring a high risk of gender-based violence . Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission.", "Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission. Evidence-based guidelines alone in complex humanitarian crises may not suffice during the emergence of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response.", "Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response. Crisis-affected community engagement is integral in pandemic planning, in order to maximize the real-world effectiveness of efficacious interventions. Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations .", "Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations . Diplomacy bridging long-standing mistrust of public health and biomedical interventions and facilitating engagement with contentious actors is a necessary component of effective health governance in complex crisis settings . Interventions tailored to the needs of crisis-affected populations, delivered with transparent information, in the context of inclusive governance practices, are urgently needed in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic." ]

[ "nan Text: Over 168 million people across 50 countries are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2020 . Response to epidemics in complex humanitarian crisessuch as the recent cholera epidemic in Yemen and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congois a global health challenge of increasing scale . The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings.", "The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings. The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 SARS-CoV-2 may represent a still greater threat to those in complex humanitarian crises, which lack the infrastructure, support, and health systems to mount a comprehensive response. Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings.", "Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings. Populations affected by humanitarian crises are expected to be particularly susceptible to COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, due to displacement, crowded housing, malnutrition, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene WASH tools, and stigmatization. Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems.", "Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems. These situations escalate both the necessity and the difficulty of delivering accurate and actionable information to potentially affected populations . As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts.", "As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts. These standard public health measures are particularly difficult to perform in humanitarian settings. For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing.", "For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing. Providing the limited healthcare worker cadre with appropriate training and personal protective equipment, and ensuring a continuous supply chain for such, is a challenge in all settings, exacerbated in complex humanitarian crises. Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing.", "Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing. Finally, intractable structural challenges such as overcrowding limit the implementation of both quarantine of those exposed and isolation of those who are ill. Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic.", "Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic. Resources must be identified to protect healthcare workers, develop and deploy rapid testing, improve surveillance, and enact quarantine and isolation of contacts and cases. To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses.", "To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses. Respiratory hygiene is a highly effective public health intervention, supported by evidence demonstrating that the spread of respiratory viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, can be prevented by hand hygiene, safe cough practice, and social distancing . Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% .", "Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% . Furthermore, hand hygiene is an avenue of agency for protecting one's own health, consistent with the rights to dignity and to fully participate in decisions related to assistance in humanitarian crises. Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production .", "Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production . The Sphere Handbook, a collection of rights-based guidelines for humanitarian response, is the foremost authority on minimum standards for humanitarian assistance . However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines .", "However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines . And yet, latrines in crisis settings are often shared and distant from residential shelters, conferring a high risk of gender-based violence . Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission.", "Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission. Evidence-based guidelines alone in complex humanitarian crises may not suffice during the emergence of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response.", "Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response. Crisis-affected community engagement is integral in pandemic planning, in order to maximize the real-world effectiveness of efficacious interventions. Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations .", "Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations . Diplomacy bridging long-standing mistrust of public health and biomedical interventions and facilitating engagement with contentious actors is a necessary component of effective health governance in complex crisis settings . Interventions tailored to the needs of crisis-affected populations, delivered with transparent information, in the context of inclusive governance practices, are urgently needed in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic." ]

[ "nan Text: Over 168 million people across 50 countries are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2020 . Response to epidemics in complex humanitarian crisessuch as the recent cholera epidemic in Yemen and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congois a global health challenge of increasing scale . The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings.", "The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings. The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 SARS-CoV-2 may represent a still greater threat to those in complex humanitarian crises, which lack the infrastructure, support, and health systems to mount a comprehensive response. Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings.", "Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings. Populations affected by humanitarian crises are expected to be particularly susceptible to COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, due to displacement, crowded housing, malnutrition, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene WASH tools, and stigmatization. Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems.", "Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems. These situations escalate both the necessity and the difficulty of delivering accurate and actionable information to potentially affected populations . As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts.", "As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts. These standard public health measures are particularly difficult to perform in humanitarian settings. For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing.", "For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing. Providing the limited healthcare worker cadre with appropriate training and personal protective equipment, and ensuring a continuous supply chain for such, is a challenge in all settings, exacerbated in complex humanitarian crises. Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing.", "Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing. Finally, intractable structural challenges such as overcrowding limit the implementation of both quarantine of those exposed and isolation of those who are ill. Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic.", "Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic. Resources must be identified to protect healthcare workers, develop and deploy rapid testing, improve surveillance, and enact quarantine and isolation of contacts and cases. To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses.", "To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses. Respiratory hygiene is a highly effective public health intervention, supported by evidence demonstrating that the spread of respiratory viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, can be prevented by hand hygiene, safe cough practice, and social distancing . Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% .", "Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% . Furthermore, hand hygiene is an avenue of agency for protecting one's own health, consistent with the rights to dignity and to fully participate in decisions related to assistance in humanitarian crises. Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production .", "Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production . The Sphere Handbook, a collection of rights-based guidelines for humanitarian response, is the foremost authority on minimum standards for humanitarian assistance . However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines .", "However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines . And yet, latrines in crisis settings are often shared and distant from residential shelters, conferring a high risk of gender-based violence . Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission.", "Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission. Evidence-based guidelines alone in complex humanitarian crises may not suffice during the emergence of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response.", "Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response. Crisis-affected community engagement is integral in pandemic planning, in order to maximize the real-world effectiveness of efficacious interventions. Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations .", "Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations . Diplomacy bridging long-standing mistrust of public health and biomedical interventions and facilitating engagement with contentious actors is a necessary component of effective health governance in complex crisis settings . Interventions tailored to the needs of crisis-affected populations, delivered with transparent information, in the context of inclusive governance practices, are urgently needed in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic." ]

[ "nan Text: Over 168 million people across 50 countries are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2020 . Response to epidemics in complex humanitarian crisessuch as the recent cholera epidemic in Yemen and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congois a global health challenge of increasing scale . The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings.", "The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings. The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 SARS-CoV-2 may represent a still greater threat to those in complex humanitarian crises, which lack the infrastructure, support, and health systems to mount a comprehensive response. Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings.", "Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings. Populations affected by humanitarian crises are expected to be particularly susceptible to COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, due to displacement, crowded housing, malnutrition, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene WASH tools, and stigmatization. Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems.", "Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems. These situations escalate both the necessity and the difficulty of delivering accurate and actionable information to potentially affected populations . As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts.", "As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts. These standard public health measures are particularly difficult to perform in humanitarian settings. For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing.", "For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing. Providing the limited healthcare worker cadre with appropriate training and personal protective equipment, and ensuring a continuous supply chain for such, is a challenge in all settings, exacerbated in complex humanitarian crises. Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing.", "Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing. Finally, intractable structural challenges such as overcrowding limit the implementation of both quarantine of those exposed and isolation of those who are ill. Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic.", "Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic. Resources must be identified to protect healthcare workers, develop and deploy rapid testing, improve surveillance, and enact quarantine and isolation of contacts and cases. To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses.", "To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses. Respiratory hygiene is a highly effective public health intervention, supported by evidence demonstrating that the spread of respiratory viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, can be prevented by hand hygiene, safe cough practice, and social distancing . Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% .", "Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% . Furthermore, hand hygiene is an avenue of agency for protecting one's own health, consistent with the rights to dignity and to fully participate in decisions related to assistance in humanitarian crises. Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production .", "Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production . The Sphere Handbook, a collection of rights-based guidelines for humanitarian response, is the foremost authority on minimum standards for humanitarian assistance . However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines .", "However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines . And yet, latrines in crisis settings are often shared and distant from residential shelters, conferring a high risk of gender-based violence . Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission.", "Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission. Evidence-based guidelines alone in complex humanitarian crises may not suffice during the emergence of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response.", "Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response. Crisis-affected community engagement is integral in pandemic planning, in order to maximize the real-world effectiveness of efficacious interventions. Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations .", "Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations . Diplomacy bridging long-standing mistrust of public health and biomedical interventions and facilitating engagement with contentious actors is a necessary component of effective health governance in complex crisis settings . Interventions tailored to the needs of crisis-affected populations, delivered with transparent information, in the context of inclusive governance practices, are urgently needed in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic." ]

[ "nan Text: Over 168 million people across 50 countries are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2020 . Response to epidemics in complex humanitarian crisessuch as the recent cholera epidemic in Yemen and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congois a global health challenge of increasing scale . The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings.", "The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings. The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 SARS-CoV-2 may represent a still greater threat to those in complex humanitarian crises, which lack the infrastructure, support, and health systems to mount a comprehensive response. Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings.", "Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings. Populations affected by humanitarian crises are expected to be particularly susceptible to COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, due to displacement, crowded housing, malnutrition, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene WASH tools, and stigmatization. Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems.", "Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems. These situations escalate both the necessity and the difficulty of delivering accurate and actionable information to potentially affected populations . As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts.", "As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts. These standard public health measures are particularly difficult to perform in humanitarian settings. For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing.", "For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing. Providing the limited healthcare worker cadre with appropriate training and personal protective equipment, and ensuring a continuous supply chain for such, is a challenge in all settings, exacerbated in complex humanitarian crises. Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing.", "Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing. Finally, intractable structural challenges such as overcrowding limit the implementation of both quarantine of those exposed and isolation of those who are ill. Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic.", "Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic. Resources must be identified to protect healthcare workers, develop and deploy rapid testing, improve surveillance, and enact quarantine and isolation of contacts and cases. To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses.", "To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses. Respiratory hygiene is a highly effective public health intervention, supported by evidence demonstrating that the spread of respiratory viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, can be prevented by hand hygiene, safe cough practice, and social distancing . Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% .", "Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% . Furthermore, hand hygiene is an avenue of agency for protecting one's own health, consistent with the rights to dignity and to fully participate in decisions related to assistance in humanitarian crises. Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production .", "Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production . The Sphere Handbook, a collection of rights-based guidelines for humanitarian response, is the foremost authority on minimum standards for humanitarian assistance . However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines .", "However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines . And yet, latrines in crisis settings are often shared and distant from residential shelters, conferring a high risk of gender-based violence . Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission.", "Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission. Evidence-based guidelines alone in complex humanitarian crises may not suffice during the emergence of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response.", "Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response. Crisis-affected community engagement is integral in pandemic planning, in order to maximize the real-world effectiveness of efficacious interventions. Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations .", "Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations . Diplomacy bridging long-standing mistrust of public health and biomedical interventions and facilitating engagement with contentious actors is a necessary component of effective health governance in complex crisis settings . Interventions tailored to the needs of crisis-affected populations, delivered with transparent information, in the context of inclusive governance practices, are urgently needed in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic." ]

[ "nan Text: Over 168 million people across 50 countries are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2020 . Response to epidemics in complex humanitarian crisessuch as the recent cholera epidemic in Yemen and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congois a global health challenge of increasing scale . The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings.", "The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings. The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 SARS-CoV-2 may represent a still greater threat to those in complex humanitarian crises, which lack the infrastructure, support, and health systems to mount a comprehensive response. Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings.", "Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings. Populations affected by humanitarian crises are expected to be particularly susceptible to COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, due to displacement, crowded housing, malnutrition, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene WASH tools, and stigmatization. Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems.", "Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems. These situations escalate both the necessity and the difficulty of delivering accurate and actionable information to potentially affected populations . As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts.", "As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts. These standard public health measures are particularly difficult to perform in humanitarian settings. For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing.", "For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing. Providing the limited healthcare worker cadre with appropriate training and personal protective equipment, and ensuring a continuous supply chain for such, is a challenge in all settings, exacerbated in complex humanitarian crises. Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing.", "Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing. Finally, intractable structural challenges such as overcrowding limit the implementation of both quarantine of those exposed and isolation of those who are ill. Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic.", "Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic. Resources must be identified to protect healthcare workers, develop and deploy rapid testing, improve surveillance, and enact quarantine and isolation of contacts and cases. To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses.", "To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses. Respiratory hygiene is a highly effective public health intervention, supported by evidence demonstrating that the spread of respiratory viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, can be prevented by hand hygiene, safe cough practice, and social distancing . Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% .", "Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% . Furthermore, hand hygiene is an avenue of agency for protecting one's own health, consistent with the rights to dignity and to fully participate in decisions related to assistance in humanitarian crises. Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production .", "Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production . The Sphere Handbook, a collection of rights-based guidelines for humanitarian response, is the foremost authority on minimum standards for humanitarian assistance . However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines .", "However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines . And yet, latrines in crisis settings are often shared and distant from residential shelters, conferring a high risk of gender-based violence . Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission.", "Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission. Evidence-based guidelines alone in complex humanitarian crises may not suffice during the emergence of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response.", "Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response. Crisis-affected community engagement is integral in pandemic planning, in order to maximize the real-world effectiveness of efficacious interventions. Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations .", "Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations . Diplomacy bridging long-standing mistrust of public health and biomedical interventions and facilitating engagement with contentious actors is a necessary component of effective health governance in complex crisis settings . Interventions tailored to the needs of crisis-affected populations, delivered with transparent information, in the context of inclusive governance practices, are urgently needed in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic." ]

[ "nan Text: Over 168 million people across 50 countries are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2020 . Response to epidemics in complex humanitarian crisessuch as the recent cholera epidemic in Yemen and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congois a global health challenge of increasing scale . The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings.", "The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings. The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 SARS-CoV-2 may represent a still greater threat to those in complex humanitarian crises, which lack the infrastructure, support, and health systems to mount a comprehensive response. Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings.", "Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings. Populations affected by humanitarian crises are expected to be particularly susceptible to COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, due to displacement, crowded housing, malnutrition, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene WASH tools, and stigmatization. Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems.", "Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems. These situations escalate both the necessity and the difficulty of delivering accurate and actionable information to potentially affected populations . As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts.", "As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts. These standard public health measures are particularly difficult to perform in humanitarian settings. For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing.", "For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing. Providing the limited healthcare worker cadre with appropriate training and personal protective equipment, and ensuring a continuous supply chain for such, is a challenge in all settings, exacerbated in complex humanitarian crises. Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing.", "Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing. Finally, intractable structural challenges such as overcrowding limit the implementation of both quarantine of those exposed and isolation of those who are ill. Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic.", "Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic. Resources must be identified to protect healthcare workers, develop and deploy rapid testing, improve surveillance, and enact quarantine and isolation of contacts and cases. To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses.", "To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses. Respiratory hygiene is a highly effective public health intervention, supported by evidence demonstrating that the spread of respiratory viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, can be prevented by hand hygiene, safe cough practice, and social distancing . Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% .", "Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% . Furthermore, hand hygiene is an avenue of agency for protecting one's own health, consistent with the rights to dignity and to fully participate in decisions related to assistance in humanitarian crises. Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production .", "Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production . The Sphere Handbook, a collection of rights-based guidelines for humanitarian response, is the foremost authority on minimum standards for humanitarian assistance . However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines .", "However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines . And yet, latrines in crisis settings are often shared and distant from residential shelters, conferring a high risk of gender-based violence . Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission.", "Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission. Evidence-based guidelines alone in complex humanitarian crises may not suffice during the emergence of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response.", "Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response. Crisis-affected community engagement is integral in pandemic planning, in order to maximize the real-world effectiveness of efficacious interventions. Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations .", "Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations . Diplomacy bridging long-standing mistrust of public health and biomedical interventions and facilitating engagement with contentious actors is a necessary component of effective health governance in complex crisis settings . Interventions tailored to the needs of crisis-affected populations, delivered with transparent information, in the context of inclusive governance practices, are urgently needed in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic." ]

[ "nan Text: Over 168 million people across 50 countries are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2020 . Response to epidemics in complex humanitarian crisessuch as the recent cholera epidemic in Yemen and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congois a global health challenge of increasing scale . The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings.", "The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings. The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 SARS-CoV-2 may represent a still greater threat to those in complex humanitarian crises, which lack the infrastructure, support, and health systems to mount a comprehensive response. Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings.", "Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings. Populations affected by humanitarian crises are expected to be particularly susceptible to COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, due to displacement, crowded housing, malnutrition, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene WASH tools, and stigmatization. Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems.", "Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems. These situations escalate both the necessity and the difficulty of delivering accurate and actionable information to potentially affected populations . As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts.", "As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts. These standard public health measures are particularly difficult to perform in humanitarian settings. For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing.", "For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing. Providing the limited healthcare worker cadre with appropriate training and personal protective equipment, and ensuring a continuous supply chain for such, is a challenge in all settings, exacerbated in complex humanitarian crises. Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing.", "Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing. Finally, intractable structural challenges such as overcrowding limit the implementation of both quarantine of those exposed and isolation of those who are ill. Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic.", "Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic. Resources must be identified to protect healthcare workers, develop and deploy rapid testing, improve surveillance, and enact quarantine and isolation of contacts and cases. To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses.", "To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses. Respiratory hygiene is a highly effective public health intervention, supported by evidence demonstrating that the spread of respiratory viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, can be prevented by hand hygiene, safe cough practice, and social distancing . Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% .", "Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% . Furthermore, hand hygiene is an avenue of agency for protecting one's own health, consistent with the rights to dignity and to fully participate in decisions related to assistance in humanitarian crises. Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production .", "Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production . The Sphere Handbook, a collection of rights-based guidelines for humanitarian response, is the foremost authority on minimum standards for humanitarian assistance . However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines .", "However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines . And yet, latrines in crisis settings are often shared and distant from residential shelters, conferring a high risk of gender-based violence . Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission.", "Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission. Evidence-based guidelines alone in complex humanitarian crises may not suffice during the emergence of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response.", "Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response. Crisis-affected community engagement is integral in pandemic planning, in order to maximize the real-world effectiveness of efficacious interventions. Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations .", "Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations . Diplomacy bridging long-standing mistrust of public health and biomedical interventions and facilitating engagement with contentious actors is a necessary component of effective health governance in complex crisis settings . Interventions tailored to the needs of crisis-affected populations, delivered with transparent information, in the context of inclusive governance practices, are urgently needed in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic." ]

[ "nan Text: Over 168 million people across 50 countries are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2020 . Response to epidemics in complex humanitarian crisessuch as the recent cholera epidemic in Yemen and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congois a global health challenge of increasing scale . The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings.", "The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings. The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 SARS-CoV-2 may represent a still greater threat to those in complex humanitarian crises, which lack the infrastructure, support, and health systems to mount a comprehensive response. Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings.", "Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings. Populations affected by humanitarian crises are expected to be particularly susceptible to COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, due to displacement, crowded housing, malnutrition, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene WASH tools, and stigmatization. Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems.", "Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems. These situations escalate both the necessity and the difficulty of delivering accurate and actionable information to potentially affected populations . As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts.", "As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts. These standard public health measures are particularly difficult to perform in humanitarian settings. For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing.", "For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing. Providing the limited healthcare worker cadre with appropriate training and personal protective equipment, and ensuring a continuous supply chain for such, is a challenge in all settings, exacerbated in complex humanitarian crises. Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing.", "Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing. Finally, intractable structural challenges such as overcrowding limit the implementation of both quarantine of those exposed and isolation of those who are ill. Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic.", "Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic. Resources must be identified to protect healthcare workers, develop and deploy rapid testing, improve surveillance, and enact quarantine and isolation of contacts and cases. To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses.", "To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses. Respiratory hygiene is a highly effective public health intervention, supported by evidence demonstrating that the spread of respiratory viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, can be prevented by hand hygiene, safe cough practice, and social distancing . Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% .", "Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% . Furthermore, hand hygiene is an avenue of agency for protecting one's own health, consistent with the rights to dignity and to fully participate in decisions related to assistance in humanitarian crises. Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production .", "Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production . The Sphere Handbook, a collection of rights-based guidelines for humanitarian response, is the foremost authority on minimum standards for humanitarian assistance . However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines .", "However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines . And yet, latrines in crisis settings are often shared and distant from residential shelters, conferring a high risk of gender-based violence . Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission.", "Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission. Evidence-based guidelines alone in complex humanitarian crises may not suffice during the emergence of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response.", "Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response. Crisis-affected community engagement is integral in pandemic planning, in order to maximize the real-world effectiveness of efficacious interventions. Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations .", "Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations . Diplomacy bridging long-standing mistrust of public health and biomedical interventions and facilitating engagement with contentious actors is a necessary component of effective health governance in complex crisis settings . Interventions tailored to the needs of crisis-affected populations, delivered with transparent information, in the context of inclusive governance practices, are urgently needed in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic." ]

[ "nan Text: Over 168 million people across 50 countries are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2020 . Response to epidemics in complex humanitarian crisessuch as the recent cholera epidemic in Yemen and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congois a global health challenge of increasing scale . The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings.", "The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings. The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 SARS-CoV-2 may represent a still greater threat to those in complex humanitarian crises, which lack the infrastructure, support, and health systems to mount a comprehensive response. Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings.", "Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings. Populations affected by humanitarian crises are expected to be particularly susceptible to COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, due to displacement, crowded housing, malnutrition, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene WASH tools, and stigmatization. Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems.", "Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems. These situations escalate both the necessity and the difficulty of delivering accurate and actionable information to potentially affected populations . As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts.", "As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts. These standard public health measures are particularly difficult to perform in humanitarian settings. For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing.", "For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing. Providing the limited healthcare worker cadre with appropriate training and personal protective equipment, and ensuring a continuous supply chain for such, is a challenge in all settings, exacerbated in complex humanitarian crises. Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing.", "Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing. Finally, intractable structural challenges such as overcrowding limit the implementation of both quarantine of those exposed and isolation of those who are ill. Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic.", "Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic. Resources must be identified to protect healthcare workers, develop and deploy rapid testing, improve surveillance, and enact quarantine and isolation of contacts and cases. To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses.", "To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses. Respiratory hygiene is a highly effective public health intervention, supported by evidence demonstrating that the spread of respiratory viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, can be prevented by hand hygiene, safe cough practice, and social distancing . Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% .", "Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% . Furthermore, hand hygiene is an avenue of agency for protecting one's own health, consistent with the rights to dignity and to fully participate in decisions related to assistance in humanitarian crises. Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production .", "Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production . The Sphere Handbook, a collection of rights-based guidelines for humanitarian response, is the foremost authority on minimum standards for humanitarian assistance . However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines .", "However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines . And yet, latrines in crisis settings are often shared and distant from residential shelters, conferring a high risk of gender-based violence . Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission.", "Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission. Evidence-based guidelines alone in complex humanitarian crises may not suffice during the emergence of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response.", "Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response. Crisis-affected community engagement is integral in pandemic planning, in order to maximize the real-world effectiveness of efficacious interventions. Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations .", "Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations . Diplomacy bridging long-standing mistrust of public health and biomedical interventions and facilitating engagement with contentious actors is a necessary component of effective health governance in complex crisis settings . Interventions tailored to the needs of crisis-affected populations, delivered with transparent information, in the context of inclusive governance practices, are urgently needed in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic." ]

[ "nan Text: Over 168 million people across 50 countries are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2020 . Response to epidemics in complex humanitarian crisessuch as the recent cholera epidemic in Yemen and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congois a global health challenge of increasing scale . The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings.", "The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings. The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 SARS-CoV-2 may represent a still greater threat to those in complex humanitarian crises, which lack the infrastructure, support, and health systems to mount a comprehensive response. Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings.", "Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings. Populations affected by humanitarian crises are expected to be particularly susceptible to COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, due to displacement, crowded housing, malnutrition, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene WASH tools, and stigmatization. Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems.", "Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems. These situations escalate both the necessity and the difficulty of delivering accurate and actionable information to potentially affected populations . As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts.", "As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts. These standard public health measures are particularly difficult to perform in humanitarian settings. For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing.", "For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing. Providing the limited healthcare worker cadre with appropriate training and personal protective equipment, and ensuring a continuous supply chain for such, is a challenge in all settings, exacerbated in complex humanitarian crises. Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing.", "Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing. Finally, intractable structural challenges such as overcrowding limit the implementation of both quarantine of those exposed and isolation of those who are ill. Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic.", "Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic. Resources must be identified to protect healthcare workers, develop and deploy rapid testing, improve surveillance, and enact quarantine and isolation of contacts and cases. To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses.", "To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses. Respiratory hygiene is a highly effective public health intervention, supported by evidence demonstrating that the spread of respiratory viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, can be prevented by hand hygiene, safe cough practice, and social distancing . Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% .", "Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% . Furthermore, hand hygiene is an avenue of agency for protecting one's own health, consistent with the rights to dignity and to fully participate in decisions related to assistance in humanitarian crises. Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production .", "Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production . The Sphere Handbook, a collection of rights-based guidelines for humanitarian response, is the foremost authority on minimum standards for humanitarian assistance . However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines .", "However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines . And yet, latrines in crisis settings are often shared and distant from residential shelters, conferring a high risk of gender-based violence . Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission.", "Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission. Evidence-based guidelines alone in complex humanitarian crises may not suffice during the emergence of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response.", "Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response. Crisis-affected community engagement is integral in pandemic planning, in order to maximize the real-world effectiveness of efficacious interventions. Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations .", "Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations . Diplomacy bridging long-standing mistrust of public health and biomedical interventions and facilitating engagement with contentious actors is a necessary component of effective health governance in complex crisis settings . Interventions tailored to the needs of crisis-affected populations, delivered with transparent information, in the context of inclusive governance practices, are urgently needed in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic." ]

[ "nan Text: Over 168 million people across 50 countries are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2020 . Response to epidemics in complex humanitarian crisessuch as the recent cholera epidemic in Yemen and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congois a global health challenge of increasing scale . The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings.", "The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings. The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 SARS-CoV-2 may represent a still greater threat to those in complex humanitarian crises, which lack the infrastructure, support, and health systems to mount a comprehensive response. Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings.", "Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings. Populations affected by humanitarian crises are expected to be particularly susceptible to COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, due to displacement, crowded housing, malnutrition, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene WASH tools, and stigmatization. Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems.", "Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems. These situations escalate both the necessity and the difficulty of delivering accurate and actionable information to potentially affected populations . As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts.", "As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts. These standard public health measures are particularly difficult to perform in humanitarian settings. For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing.", "For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing. Providing the limited healthcare worker cadre with appropriate training and personal protective equipment, and ensuring a continuous supply chain for such, is a challenge in all settings, exacerbated in complex humanitarian crises. Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing.", "Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing. Finally, intractable structural challenges such as overcrowding limit the implementation of both quarantine of those exposed and isolation of those who are ill. Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic.", "Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic. Resources must be identified to protect healthcare workers, develop and deploy rapid testing, improve surveillance, and enact quarantine and isolation of contacts and cases. To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses.", "To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses. Respiratory hygiene is a highly effective public health intervention, supported by evidence demonstrating that the spread of respiratory viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, can be prevented by hand hygiene, safe cough practice, and social distancing . Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% .", "Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% . Furthermore, hand hygiene is an avenue of agency for protecting one's own health, consistent with the rights to dignity and to fully participate in decisions related to assistance in humanitarian crises. Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production .", "Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production . The Sphere Handbook, a collection of rights-based guidelines for humanitarian response, is the foremost authority on minimum standards for humanitarian assistance . However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines .", "However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines . And yet, latrines in crisis settings are often shared and distant from residential shelters, conferring a high risk of gender-based violence . Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission.", "Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission. Evidence-based guidelines alone in complex humanitarian crises may not suffice during the emergence of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response.", "Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response. Crisis-affected community engagement is integral in pandemic planning, in order to maximize the real-world effectiveness of efficacious interventions. Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations .", "Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations . Diplomacy bridging long-standing mistrust of public health and biomedical interventions and facilitating engagement with contentious actors is a necessary component of effective health governance in complex crisis settings . Interventions tailored to the needs of crisis-affected populations, delivered with transparent information, in the context of inclusive governance practices, are urgently needed in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic." ]

[ "nan Text: Over 168 million people across 50 countries are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2020 . Response to epidemics in complex humanitarian crisessuch as the recent cholera epidemic in Yemen and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congois a global health challenge of increasing scale . The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings.", "The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings. The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 SARS-CoV-2 may represent a still greater threat to those in complex humanitarian crises, which lack the infrastructure, support, and health systems to mount a comprehensive response. Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings.", "Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings. Populations affected by humanitarian crises are expected to be particularly susceptible to COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, due to displacement, crowded housing, malnutrition, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene WASH tools, and stigmatization. Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems.", "Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems. These situations escalate both the necessity and the difficulty of delivering accurate and actionable information to potentially affected populations . As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts.", "As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts. These standard public health measures are particularly difficult to perform in humanitarian settings. For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing.", "For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing. Providing the limited healthcare worker cadre with appropriate training and personal protective equipment, and ensuring a continuous supply chain for such, is a challenge in all settings, exacerbated in complex humanitarian crises. Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing.", "Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing. Finally, intractable structural challenges such as overcrowding limit the implementation of both quarantine of those exposed and isolation of those who are ill. Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic.", "Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic. Resources must be identified to protect healthcare workers, develop and deploy rapid testing, improve surveillance, and enact quarantine and isolation of contacts and cases. To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses.", "To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses. Respiratory hygiene is a highly effective public health intervention, supported by evidence demonstrating that the spread of respiratory viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, can be prevented by hand hygiene, safe cough practice, and social distancing . Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% .", "Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% . Furthermore, hand hygiene is an avenue of agency for protecting one's own health, consistent with the rights to dignity and to fully participate in decisions related to assistance in humanitarian crises. Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production .", "Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production . The Sphere Handbook, a collection of rights-based guidelines for humanitarian response, is the foremost authority on minimum standards for humanitarian assistance . However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines .", "However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines . And yet, latrines in crisis settings are often shared and distant from residential shelters, conferring a high risk of gender-based violence . Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission.", "Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission. Evidence-based guidelines alone in complex humanitarian crises may not suffice during the emergence of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response.", "Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response. Crisis-affected community engagement is integral in pandemic planning, in order to maximize the real-world effectiveness of efficacious interventions. Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations .", "Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations . Diplomacy bridging long-standing mistrust of public health and biomedical interventions and facilitating engagement with contentious actors is a necessary component of effective health governance in complex crisis settings . Interventions tailored to the needs of crisis-affected populations, delivered with transparent information, in the context of inclusive governance practices, are urgently needed in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic." ]

[ "nan Text: Over 168 million people across 50 countries are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2020 . Response to epidemics in complex humanitarian crisessuch as the recent cholera epidemic in Yemen and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congois a global health challenge of increasing scale . The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings.", "The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings. The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 SARS-CoV-2 may represent a still greater threat to those in complex humanitarian crises, which lack the infrastructure, support, and health systems to mount a comprehensive response. Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings.", "Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings. Populations affected by humanitarian crises are expected to be particularly susceptible to COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, due to displacement, crowded housing, malnutrition, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene WASH tools, and stigmatization. Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems.", "Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems. These situations escalate both the necessity and the difficulty of delivering accurate and actionable information to potentially affected populations . As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts.", "As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts. These standard public health measures are particularly difficult to perform in humanitarian settings. For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing.", "For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing. Providing the limited healthcare worker cadre with appropriate training and personal protective equipment, and ensuring a continuous supply chain for such, is a challenge in all settings, exacerbated in complex humanitarian crises. Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing.", "Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing. Finally, intractable structural challenges such as overcrowding limit the implementation of both quarantine of those exposed and isolation of those who are ill. Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic.", "Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic. Resources must be identified to protect healthcare workers, develop and deploy rapid testing, improve surveillance, and enact quarantine and isolation of contacts and cases. To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses.", "To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses. Respiratory hygiene is a highly effective public health intervention, supported by evidence demonstrating that the spread of respiratory viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, can be prevented by hand hygiene, safe cough practice, and social distancing . Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% .", "Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% . Furthermore, hand hygiene is an avenue of agency for protecting one's own health, consistent with the rights to dignity and to fully participate in decisions related to assistance in humanitarian crises. Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production .", "Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production . The Sphere Handbook, a collection of rights-based guidelines for humanitarian response, is the foremost authority on minimum standards for humanitarian assistance . However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines .", "However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines . And yet, latrines in crisis settings are often shared and distant from residential shelters, conferring a high risk of gender-based violence . Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission.", "Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission. Evidence-based guidelines alone in complex humanitarian crises may not suffice during the emergence of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response.", "Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response. Crisis-affected community engagement is integral in pandemic planning, in order to maximize the real-world effectiveness of efficacious interventions. Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations .", "Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations . Diplomacy bridging long-standing mistrust of public health and biomedical interventions and facilitating engagement with contentious actors is a necessary component of effective health governance in complex crisis settings . Interventions tailored to the needs of crisis-affected populations, delivered with transparent information, in the context of inclusive governance practices, are urgently needed in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic." ]

[ "nan Text: Over 168 million people across 50 countries are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2020 . Response to epidemics in complex humanitarian crisessuch as the recent cholera epidemic in Yemen and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congois a global health challenge of increasing scale . The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings.", "The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings. The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 SARS-CoV-2 may represent a still greater threat to those in complex humanitarian crises, which lack the infrastructure, support, and health systems to mount a comprehensive response. Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings.", "Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings. Populations affected by humanitarian crises are expected to be particularly susceptible to COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, due to displacement, crowded housing, malnutrition, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene WASH tools, and stigmatization. Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems.", "Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems. These situations escalate both the necessity and the difficulty of delivering accurate and actionable information to potentially affected populations . As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts.", "As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts. These standard public health measures are particularly difficult to perform in humanitarian settings. For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing.", "For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing. Providing the limited healthcare worker cadre with appropriate training and personal protective equipment, and ensuring a continuous supply chain for such, is a challenge in all settings, exacerbated in complex humanitarian crises. Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing.", "Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing. Finally, intractable structural challenges such as overcrowding limit the implementation of both quarantine of those exposed and isolation of those who are ill. Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic.", "Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic. Resources must be identified to protect healthcare workers, develop and deploy rapid testing, improve surveillance, and enact quarantine and isolation of contacts and cases. To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses.", "To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses. Respiratory hygiene is a highly effective public health intervention, supported by evidence demonstrating that the spread of respiratory viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, can be prevented by hand hygiene, safe cough practice, and social distancing . Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% .", "Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% . Furthermore, hand hygiene is an avenue of agency for protecting one's own health, consistent with the rights to dignity and to fully participate in decisions related to assistance in humanitarian crises. Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production .", "Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production . The Sphere Handbook, a collection of rights-based guidelines for humanitarian response, is the foremost authority on minimum standards for humanitarian assistance . However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines .", "However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines . And yet, latrines in crisis settings are often shared and distant from residential shelters, conferring a high risk of gender-based violence . Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission.", "Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission. Evidence-based guidelines alone in complex humanitarian crises may not suffice during the emergence of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response.", "Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response. Crisis-affected community engagement is integral in pandemic planning, in order to maximize the real-world effectiveness of efficacious interventions. Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations .", "Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations . Diplomacy bridging long-standing mistrust of public health and biomedical interventions and facilitating engagement with contentious actors is a necessary component of effective health governance in complex crisis settings . Interventions tailored to the needs of crisis-affected populations, delivered with transparent information, in the context of inclusive governance practices, are urgently needed in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic." ]

[ "nan Text: Over 168 million people across 50 countries are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2020 . Response to epidemics in complex humanitarian crisessuch as the recent cholera epidemic in Yemen and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congois a global health challenge of increasing scale . The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings.", "The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings. The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 SARS-CoV-2 may represent a still greater threat to those in complex humanitarian crises, which lack the infrastructure, support, and health systems to mount a comprehensive response. Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings.", "Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings. Populations affected by humanitarian crises are expected to be particularly susceptible to COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, due to displacement, crowded housing, malnutrition, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene WASH tools, and stigmatization. Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems.", "Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems. These situations escalate both the necessity and the difficulty of delivering accurate and actionable information to potentially affected populations . As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts.", "As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts. These standard public health measures are particularly difficult to perform in humanitarian settings. For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing.", "For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing. Providing the limited healthcare worker cadre with appropriate training and personal protective equipment, and ensuring a continuous supply chain for such, is a challenge in all settings, exacerbated in complex humanitarian crises. Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing.", "Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing. Finally, intractable structural challenges such as overcrowding limit the implementation of both quarantine of those exposed and isolation of those who are ill. Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic.", "Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic. Resources must be identified to protect healthcare workers, develop and deploy rapid testing, improve surveillance, and enact quarantine and isolation of contacts and cases. To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses.", "To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses. Respiratory hygiene is a highly effective public health intervention, supported by evidence demonstrating that the spread of respiratory viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, can be prevented by hand hygiene, safe cough practice, and social distancing . Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% .", "Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% . Furthermore, hand hygiene is an avenue of agency for protecting one's own health, consistent with the rights to dignity and to fully participate in decisions related to assistance in humanitarian crises. Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production .", "Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production . The Sphere Handbook, a collection of rights-based guidelines for humanitarian response, is the foremost authority on minimum standards for humanitarian assistance . However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines .", "However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines . And yet, latrines in crisis settings are often shared and distant from residential shelters, conferring a high risk of gender-based violence . Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission.", "Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission. Evidence-based guidelines alone in complex humanitarian crises may not suffice during the emergence of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response.", "Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response. Crisis-affected community engagement is integral in pandemic planning, in order to maximize the real-world effectiveness of efficacious interventions. Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations .", "Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations . Diplomacy bridging long-standing mistrust of public health and biomedical interventions and facilitating engagement with contentious actors is a necessary component of effective health governance in complex crisis settings . Interventions tailored to the needs of crisis-affected populations, delivered with transparent information, in the context of inclusive governance practices, are urgently needed in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic." ]

[ "nan Text: Over 168 million people across 50 countries are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2020 . Response to epidemics in complex humanitarian crisessuch as the recent cholera epidemic in Yemen and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congois a global health challenge of increasing scale . The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings.", "The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings. The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 SARS-CoV-2 may represent a still greater threat to those in complex humanitarian crises, which lack the infrastructure, support, and health systems to mount a comprehensive response. Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings.", "Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings. Populations affected by humanitarian crises are expected to be particularly susceptible to COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, due to displacement, crowded housing, malnutrition, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene WASH tools, and stigmatization. Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems.", "Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems. These situations escalate both the necessity and the difficulty of delivering accurate and actionable information to potentially affected populations . As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts.", "As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts. These standard public health measures are particularly difficult to perform in humanitarian settings. For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing.", "For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing. Providing the limited healthcare worker cadre with appropriate training and personal protective equipment, and ensuring a continuous supply chain for such, is a challenge in all settings, exacerbated in complex humanitarian crises. Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing.", "Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing. Finally, intractable structural challenges such as overcrowding limit the implementation of both quarantine of those exposed and isolation of those who are ill. Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic.", "Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic. Resources must be identified to protect healthcare workers, develop and deploy rapid testing, improve surveillance, and enact quarantine and isolation of contacts and cases. To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses.", "To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses. Respiratory hygiene is a highly effective public health intervention, supported by evidence demonstrating that the spread of respiratory viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, can be prevented by hand hygiene, safe cough practice, and social distancing . Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% .", "Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% . Furthermore, hand hygiene is an avenue of agency for protecting one's own health, consistent with the rights to dignity and to fully participate in decisions related to assistance in humanitarian crises. Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production .", "Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production . The Sphere Handbook, a collection of rights-based guidelines for humanitarian response, is the foremost authority on minimum standards for humanitarian assistance . However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines .", "However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines . And yet, latrines in crisis settings are often shared and distant from residential shelters, conferring a high risk of gender-based violence . Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission.", "Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission. Evidence-based guidelines alone in complex humanitarian crises may not suffice during the emergence of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response.", "Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response. Crisis-affected community engagement is integral in pandemic planning, in order to maximize the real-world effectiveness of efficacious interventions. Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations .", "Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations . Diplomacy bridging long-standing mistrust of public health and biomedical interventions and facilitating engagement with contentious actors is a necessary component of effective health governance in complex crisis settings . Interventions tailored to the needs of crisis-affected populations, delivered with transparent information, in the context of inclusive governance practices, are urgently needed in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic." ]

[ "nan Text: Over 168 million people across 50 countries are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2020 . Response to epidemics in complex humanitarian crisessuch as the recent cholera epidemic in Yemen and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congois a global health challenge of increasing scale . The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings.", "The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings. The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 SARS-CoV-2 may represent a still greater threat to those in complex humanitarian crises, which lack the infrastructure, support, and health systems to mount a comprehensive response. Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings.", "Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings. Populations affected by humanitarian crises are expected to be particularly susceptible to COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, due to displacement, crowded housing, malnutrition, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene WASH tools, and stigmatization. Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems.", "Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems. These situations escalate both the necessity and the difficulty of delivering accurate and actionable information to potentially affected populations . As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts.", "As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts. These standard public health measures are particularly difficult to perform in humanitarian settings. For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing.", "For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing. Providing the limited healthcare worker cadre with appropriate training and personal protective equipment, and ensuring a continuous supply chain for such, is a challenge in all settings, exacerbated in complex humanitarian crises. Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing.", "Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing. Finally, intractable structural challenges such as overcrowding limit the implementation of both quarantine of those exposed and isolation of those who are ill. Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic.", "Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic. Resources must be identified to protect healthcare workers, develop and deploy rapid testing, improve surveillance, and enact quarantine and isolation of contacts and cases. To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses.", "To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses. Respiratory hygiene is a highly effective public health intervention, supported by evidence demonstrating that the spread of respiratory viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, can be prevented by hand hygiene, safe cough practice, and social distancing . Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% .", "Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% . Furthermore, hand hygiene is an avenue of agency for protecting one's own health, consistent with the rights to dignity and to fully participate in decisions related to assistance in humanitarian crises. Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production .", "Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production . The Sphere Handbook, a collection of rights-based guidelines for humanitarian response, is the foremost authority on minimum standards for humanitarian assistance . However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines .", "However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines . And yet, latrines in crisis settings are often shared and distant from residential shelters, conferring a high risk of gender-based violence . Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission.", "Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission. Evidence-based guidelines alone in complex humanitarian crises may not suffice during the emergence of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response.", "Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response. Crisis-affected community engagement is integral in pandemic planning, in order to maximize the real-world effectiveness of efficacious interventions. Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations .", "Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations . Diplomacy bridging long-standing mistrust of public health and biomedical interventions and facilitating engagement with contentious actors is a necessary component of effective health governance in complex crisis settings . Interventions tailored to the needs of crisis-affected populations, delivered with transparent information, in the context of inclusive governance practices, are urgently needed in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic." ]

[ "nan Text: Over 168 million people across 50 countries are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2020 . Response to epidemics in complex humanitarian crisessuch as the recent cholera epidemic in Yemen and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congois a global health challenge of increasing scale . The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings.", "The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings. The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 SARS-CoV-2 may represent a still greater threat to those in complex humanitarian crises, which lack the infrastructure, support, and health systems to mount a comprehensive response. Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings.", "Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings. Populations affected by humanitarian crises are expected to be particularly susceptible to COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, due to displacement, crowded housing, malnutrition, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene WASH tools, and stigmatization. Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems.", "Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems. These situations escalate both the necessity and the difficulty of delivering accurate and actionable information to potentially affected populations . As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts.", "As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts. These standard public health measures are particularly difficult to perform in humanitarian settings. For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing.", "For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing. Providing the limited healthcare worker cadre with appropriate training and personal protective equipment, and ensuring a continuous supply chain for such, is a challenge in all settings, exacerbated in complex humanitarian crises. Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing.", "Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing. Finally, intractable structural challenges such as overcrowding limit the implementation of both quarantine of those exposed and isolation of those who are ill. Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic.", "Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic. Resources must be identified to protect healthcare workers, develop and deploy rapid testing, improve surveillance, and enact quarantine and isolation of contacts and cases. To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses.", "To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses. Respiratory hygiene is a highly effective public health intervention, supported by evidence demonstrating that the spread of respiratory viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, can be prevented by hand hygiene, safe cough practice, and social distancing . Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% .", "Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% . Furthermore, hand hygiene is an avenue of agency for protecting one's own health, consistent with the rights to dignity and to fully participate in decisions related to assistance in humanitarian crises. Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production .", "Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production . The Sphere Handbook, a collection of rights-based guidelines for humanitarian response, is the foremost authority on minimum standards for humanitarian assistance . However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines .", "However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines . And yet, latrines in crisis settings are often shared and distant from residential shelters, conferring a high risk of gender-based violence . Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission.", "Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission. Evidence-based guidelines alone in complex humanitarian crises may not suffice during the emergence of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response.", "Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response. Crisis-affected community engagement is integral in pandemic planning, in order to maximize the real-world effectiveness of efficacious interventions. Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations .", "Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations . Diplomacy bridging long-standing mistrust of public health and biomedical interventions and facilitating engagement with contentious actors is a necessary component of effective health governance in complex crisis settings . Interventions tailored to the needs of crisis-affected populations, delivered with transparent information, in the context of inclusive governance practices, are urgently needed in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic." ]

[ "nan Text: Over 168 million people across 50 countries are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2020 . Response to epidemics in complex humanitarian crisessuch as the recent cholera epidemic in Yemen and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congois a global health challenge of increasing scale . The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings.", "The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings. The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 SARS-CoV-2 may represent a still greater threat to those in complex humanitarian crises, which lack the infrastructure, support, and health systems to mount a comprehensive response. Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings.", "Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings. Populations affected by humanitarian crises are expected to be particularly susceptible to COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, due to displacement, crowded housing, malnutrition, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene WASH tools, and stigmatization. Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems.", "Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems. These situations escalate both the necessity and the difficulty of delivering accurate and actionable information to potentially affected populations . As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts.", "As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts. These standard public health measures are particularly difficult to perform in humanitarian settings. For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing.", "For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing. Providing the limited healthcare worker cadre with appropriate training and personal protective equipment, and ensuring a continuous supply chain for such, is a challenge in all settings, exacerbated in complex humanitarian crises. Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing.", "Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing. Finally, intractable structural challenges such as overcrowding limit the implementation of both quarantine of those exposed and isolation of those who are ill. Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic.", "Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic. Resources must be identified to protect healthcare workers, develop and deploy rapid testing, improve surveillance, and enact quarantine and isolation of contacts and cases. To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses.", "To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses. Respiratory hygiene is a highly effective public health intervention, supported by evidence demonstrating that the spread of respiratory viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, can be prevented by hand hygiene, safe cough practice, and social distancing . Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% .", "Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% . Furthermore, hand hygiene is an avenue of agency for protecting one's own health, consistent with the rights to dignity and to fully participate in decisions related to assistance in humanitarian crises. Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production .", "Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production . The Sphere Handbook, a collection of rights-based guidelines for humanitarian response, is the foremost authority on minimum standards for humanitarian assistance . However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines .", "However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines . And yet, latrines in crisis settings are often shared and distant from residential shelters, conferring a high risk of gender-based violence . Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission.", "Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission. Evidence-based guidelines alone in complex humanitarian crises may not suffice during the emergence of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response.", "Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response. Crisis-affected community engagement is integral in pandemic planning, in order to maximize the real-world effectiveness of efficacious interventions. Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations .", "Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations . Diplomacy bridging long-standing mistrust of public health and biomedical interventions and facilitating engagement with contentious actors is a necessary component of effective health governance in complex crisis settings . Interventions tailored to the needs of crisis-affected populations, delivered with transparent information, in the context of inclusive governance practices, are urgently needed in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic." ]

[ "nan Text: Over 168 million people across 50 countries are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2020 . Response to epidemics in complex humanitarian crisessuch as the recent cholera epidemic in Yemen and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congois a global health challenge of increasing scale . The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings.", "The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings. The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 SARS-CoV-2 may represent a still greater threat to those in complex humanitarian crises, which lack the infrastructure, support, and health systems to mount a comprehensive response. Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings.", "Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings. Populations affected by humanitarian crises are expected to be particularly susceptible to COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, due to displacement, crowded housing, malnutrition, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene WASH tools, and stigmatization. Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems.", "Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems. These situations escalate both the necessity and the difficulty of delivering accurate and actionable information to potentially affected populations . As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts.", "As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts. These standard public health measures are particularly difficult to perform in humanitarian settings. For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing.", "For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing. Providing the limited healthcare worker cadre with appropriate training and personal protective equipment, and ensuring a continuous supply chain for such, is a challenge in all settings, exacerbated in complex humanitarian crises. Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing.", "Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing. Finally, intractable structural challenges such as overcrowding limit the implementation of both quarantine of those exposed and isolation of those who are ill. Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic.", "Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic. Resources must be identified to protect healthcare workers, develop and deploy rapid testing, improve surveillance, and enact quarantine and isolation of contacts and cases. To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses.", "To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses. Respiratory hygiene is a highly effective public health intervention, supported by evidence demonstrating that the spread of respiratory viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, can be prevented by hand hygiene, safe cough practice, and social distancing . Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% .", "Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% . Furthermore, hand hygiene is an avenue of agency for protecting one's own health, consistent with the rights to dignity and to fully participate in decisions related to assistance in humanitarian crises. Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production .", "Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production . The Sphere Handbook, a collection of rights-based guidelines for humanitarian response, is the foremost authority on minimum standards for humanitarian assistance . However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines .", "However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines . And yet, latrines in crisis settings are often shared and distant from residential shelters, conferring a high risk of gender-based violence . Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission.", "Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission. Evidence-based guidelines alone in complex humanitarian crises may not suffice during the emergence of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response.", "Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response. Crisis-affected community engagement is integral in pandemic planning, in order to maximize the real-world effectiveness of efficacious interventions. Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations .", "Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations . Diplomacy bridging long-standing mistrust of public health and biomedical interventions and facilitating engagement with contentious actors is a necessary component of effective health governance in complex crisis settings . Interventions tailored to the needs of crisis-affected populations, delivered with transparent information, in the context of inclusive governance practices, are urgently needed in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic." ]