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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Thank you for taking my question, guys, and congratulations on a very strong quarter. We've seen a pretty meaningful uptick in funding for health tech companies that compete with the Vault needed products. So I love your early take on how you're thinking about these players. Should we think of them as more pure-play competitors that are just subscale? Or is there a potential partnership and integration that maybe increase the value of Vault as a platform?[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Yeah. Like I said, we've had -- I mean we had some issues around materials for additive, that applies to powders and things as well, things you never even hear about or think about. But I would say in a major way, we make 35% to 40% of our own CO.
We start very far up in the value chain, and we go very far to the end. So again, I think what we're seeing now in raw material, I mean while it certainly has impacted us, I think we've also had more ability to deal with that because we have more choices in the chain where we can make decisions that ultimately help maintain or even in some cases, improve our margins relative to others.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Thank you, Jon.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
We think we're in good shape for growth next year. We're not giving a growth expectation on Medicare at this stage. But you're absolutely right, we launched some traditional Medicare Advantage products in some of our DSNP footprint to capture folks who had incomes that didn't allow them to be eligible for DSNP, but were low income, using the same network, the same facilities and access to the same type of brokers who operate in those various areas.
So we're really optimistic about our growth prospects as we launched our MAPD products to low-income individuals, and our expanded DSNP footprint and additional penetration in our existing footprint. We still do not have the market share that we think we can ultimately obtain in our DSNP footprint. So we're really bullish on the prospects during AEP this year, bearing in mind that we do get to enroll certain people throughout the year as well.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Absolutely. Thanks, Rick, for that question. We were really pleased with achieving 74% gross margin in Q2. This is obviously a new high for us, and it reflects increasing overhead absorption as we ramp production to meet demand and also reflect some continued production efficiencies.
And all of that we do think is sustainable. For the remainder of the year, you're right, I indicated that we're comfortable kind of forecasting gross margin around 73% for the back half. I won't get too cute around how that divides up. I think we're comfortable right now with a forecast of 73% across both quarters.
And what that reflects is relative to this quarter is high, we do think we may incur some additional kind of in-period expenses related to the scaling of our operations. And so that may sort of temporarily bring down the gross margin a bit. But the kind of underlying drivers of our gross margin expansion, primarily increasing production volumes and efficiencies driven by overhead absorption. That is sustainable, and we continue to expect that to continue to drive our gross margins even higher.
So overtime, we do expect our gross margins to step up beyond even 74%, probably to the high 70s at some point. So that's our longer-term outlook.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Yeah, so we don't have demand locked in, because we aren't able to market the product until we get the EUA, but we've had strong expressions of interest inbound from a number of different potential customers along the way. A lot of that as you can imagine Vijay was awaiting clinical data, which we can now provide to them under non-disclosure agreement. So prospects look extremely, extremely good, the additional capacity, which we've announced, which will bring us to 120 million units by the second quarter of 2022 are for outside the U.S. And so I think our prospects outside the U.S. are strong as well. As you know, we have a legacy business in HIV self-test outside the U.S., which grew by 16% last year, 4 million units we announced we sold in the fourth quarter of last year. And that's a real springboard for us to address the needs of a lower-middle income countries around the world.
We're also exploring the high-income countries in the EU and elsewhere for market access and penetration for our products as well. But as you can imagine, our first test is to submit the EUA and obtain EUA from the FDA, then we'll be looking at those clusters of opportunities as well. But suffice to say, we are confident in our prospects that's why we upped our capacity to address the global needs, as well as the domestic needs.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Great. Thanks, guys. Good morning. Maybe just a near term and then a more high level.
So just on the near term, it's certainly a solid quarter, big, broad top line and bottom line be. Maybe the only thing to pick on was gross margins, down roughly 100 bps sequentially and below our estimates. Steve, maybe if you can just talk to that, what was that from? Was it all mix? Was it the big medical number and PPE? And do we expect that to bounce back sort of into the fourth quarter and trajectory into '22?[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
I don't -- well, I do know we had about $13.7 million of stock-based compensation, but that's not --[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Great. Thank you. Just going back to rent, you mentioned raising rents at PENN District a couple of times. I'm just curious, on a net effective basis, are those rents back to pre-COVID levels? Or is there still some discounts?[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Yes. Hey, Brian. It's Nipul. How are you? Yeah, we're really excited about the STI deal, and I think the reason that we're excited is their margin profile. And they have a very good local supply chain in the regions that they operate. And as you know, with our business, it's really important to have a built out supply chain locally, because there is logistics cost and just better pricing power when you have a local supply chain. So, that's the reason we have that in Brazil. It's a good market where they have a very good local content. We think that that's going to be help -- that's going to help us as we increase our business over time.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Yeah, I mean that's the point. I'm glad you mentioned that. That's exactly the point we're trying to make. So if you just looked at the hedge benefit of $105 million, I think we have. We put that in the slide, if we didn't do at this time, we actually have a slide that show it drifting down lower as you go through 2023. But that's based on today. Over time, that can change, because if we reposition certain derivatives, we're not going to be benefiting from the derivative or we'll be benefiting because rates are higher on the rest of our loan portfolio. The purpose of the hedge was to protect us, not reduce [Phonetic] NII and margin. It was to protect us if rates stayed low, which they have done.
And so when you think about giving up, if you will benefit from our derivatives, because either their term comes or we terminate them, it's because we're winning on our whole portfolio that helps offset and then some for NII growth. Hopefully, that makes sense.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Look for -- Waqar, for APS asset in Canada, which is what we discussed previously, we have received offers with values commercial constructs, and now we are addressing the process of evaluating the potential merits and risk associated reverse proposals. So, this is what we're doing now. In the meantime, we are, of course, managing these assets as to optimize cash flows in the current commodity, pricing environment and it generates quite a lot of cash flow.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Yes, in line or ahead, I'd say, across the board. The renovation really accelerated kind of where we thought we would be on rents. So we were pleased with how that came together. And obviously, COVID has kind of slowed things down in the market. But as far as this transaction and others that we've been doing there, we're very pleased with the economics.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Anja, most of the opportunities are really in the data space.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
There's a handful, five or under properties that were identified on our disposition that may remain non-transact in the near future.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
I think the thing that you look at is certainly, we have orders that are accelerating to the improving market. Supply chain does need to get to a normalized level, where production is. I think when you look at auto production going from quarter one to quarter two, we do expect it to be down to about 20 million units in our second quarter versus 22 million in the first quarter. So, that should also allow the supply chain to help normalize since there will be a little bit less production. And when we look at it, what's really nice is our growth is due more to content and production than it is due to the supply chain replenishment. As we've always told you, in an individual quarter, you can get supply chain movement one way or the other. But when I think about content per vehicle, as I said on the call, and really think about the $10 or so that our content increased over the past couple of years, really about half of that is driven due to traditional electronification of the car being more electronics in it. The other half is being driven by the benefit of the wins we have in EMs, as well as -- I'm sorry, electric mobility, as well as what we've gained in content on the car having more data. So when we look at that, that's real content growth. Certainly, in a quarter, there may be a little bit of movement as supply chain goes, but the bigger driver of our growth this content and it's what really allowed our Transportation segment to get back to pre-COVID levels on what we all know will be production this year based upon the external estimates that'll be less than pre-COVID.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
OK. Great. Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my questions here.
Frank, maybe just to start with you. Realizing there's a lot going on, so it might be early to talk about this. But could you maybe just go one level deeper, broad brush, into sort of the makeup of platform and cloud for continuing operations in terms of how much of that -- i.e. the SaaS business, how much of that is from intelligence versus Managed Defense versus validation? Any broad brushes that you could share?[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Thanks, Greg.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Thank you.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Yes. No, I appreciate the question, Vijay. I think you've heard us message this consistent and sustainable and stable GBM business. And I think that's important.
We clearly see multiple levers for growth. Tesh hit on many of those earlier in his comments, whether it's the underpenetration at academic centers or new market expansion. But those those elements of growth will take time. I think in our core active markets now, we have to acknowledge that we're five plus years post launch.
And there remains many more patients that can benefit from our therapy, but it is a maturing growth curve, right? I think fundamentally, what I would highlight is that we are still seeing improving net revenues per active patients. We are still focused on driving penetration around the globe. But I do think it's fair to expect some moderation of that growth in our in our core active market now as we work to continue to engage the academic centers and bring additional markets on in the medium term.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Well, certainly, if we can get, I think, No. 1, would be the Chinese-Australian labor -- I'm sorry, trade dispute. If that starts to abate then I think there's upside to Australia. We are -- if we can start getting better availability of labor in Australia, with some of the social safety net programs, both in Canada and Australia, there is less of an incentive for people who want to work in remote environments because they can stay at home and receive the safety net checks.
If those programs start to phase out, then that might help with the labor situation and primarily in Australia, but we're also feeling it in Canada as well. So that would be upside on the margin side. And then the third one would be turnaround activity. In Canada, I think we've -- it is -- we are planning for it to be up but I think there's hopefully an opportunity for that to be higher than our initial expectations, our current expectation.
And then the last one would be scope and breadth of pipeline accommodations. If we -- those -- if our camps in our section of -- the section that we're supporting of particularly the CGL pipeline, if we see our scope to expand there, that could be an opportunity for upside. Carolyn, is there anything else to it?[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
11 states.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Hi. It's Loo Choon Sen. So I believe you are referring to the rectification costs for the R&D expense, right?[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Thanks very much for joining us today, and we look forward to and update again next quarter.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Yes. Thanks, everyone. Thanks for the question. So I would like to dig a little bit more, maybe just a question for Chris, into the promotional environment.
Obviously, the manufacturers are taking prices up aggressively, looks like they might even need another round due to higher costs. So traditionally, that's been a good profit center for you as they increase their promotional discount rates during promotional periods. So has that kicked in fully yet here, Chris? Or do you still expect increased benefits going forward on that?[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Great. Thank you.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Morning.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Hi. Thanks for the update and taking my questions. A lot of great questions asked already, so I just have a couple of quick ones. So first, on AXS-05 for MDD, how much of the target prescriber population would you say is primary care physicians versus like hydrous? And do you expect that there would be a lot of prescribing from the primary care side of the prescriber base?[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Sure. Thanks, Mark. This is Drew, and I can start, and Tim can build on and cover some of the specifics. But I mean, the way we look at it is we have a lot of opportunity in the core business, and we're driving growth from a broader portfolio of products.
So in the core business, we spoke to some of the improvements we've been making, and we see -- we continue to see lots of levers there to drive conversion and retention and improve the experience in things like Transfer and Passwords, Family plan, all good examples. And then we're growing the portfolio. So HelloSign has been one of our fastest growing businesses. We just added DocSend, and we'll continue to have a broader innovation pipeline, both organic and -- organic bets on M&A.
So all that is to say, we have a lot of different levers. We're pulling many of them, and we're excited about the progress we've been making.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Correct, yeah, yeah. The per unit economics are going to -- are going to look a little lighter, but the overall economics are going to be strong.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Yeah. So, in terms of what we haven't announced, I mean, there are reasons that we haven't announced these so we won't go into any particular detail on these programs -- clearly some of the more spotlighted programs that are vaccine-related and so on. There's a fair amount of public information on those and I would just remind you, when we look at the business we have a strategic point of view that -- particularly when you look at our Biologics business and the number of development programs we're working with our customers across a number of different modalities, gene therapy, cell therapy, monoclonal antibodies etc, we have expectations to need to deploy capacity, to add the scale necessary for these programs as we get late phase and requiring more volume, and potentially commercially approved and require more as well.
So, we are accelerating capacity builds across the business that are initially necessary for COVID-19 programs in some instances. But long term, this is capacity we would anticipate adding perfectly in our strategic viewpoint as well. So, this is why, obviously, this is allowing us to accelerate our capacity -- our strategic plans in terms of adding capacity to meet those needs whether they're COVID programs that we have announced -- haven't announced for non-COVID-related programs essentially across our Biologics segment, in particular.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
We're going to help really simplify this for folks so they can understand kind of just like the bond math we went through, which is it's a very long-term flow of cash over a 99-year period, but it's a relatively simple thing to see what the net present value of that is today. We think this is not that much different. We just have to help people see given our scale, now given our diversity, given our growth rates, how to put that into a simple equation and say, what is something like that worth in the world? And we think there are a number of comparable things that people value every day, and this is an extraordinarily high-quality portfolio of institutional real estate in top markets with great sponsorship. All the tools to value it do exist. I think we just have to help people kind of sit down and show them the inputs and show them why those inputs are relatively straightforward and what the output is from that.
We certainly believe when we got the scale, that this is something that we'd be able to sit down with you and others and share with them, but it hasn't really made sense until we got the scale until we proved out our growth rates. Till it look like a big diversified pool of high-quality real estate around the country, now we think we can start doing that. And it won't happen overnight, and we're not going to force the issue. We know every quarter, and we track the value creation taking place. And we think we've done it long enough now that we can sit with folks and really share with them why we think there's another big leg in the value story building at Safehold.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
No, I'd characterize it as just a general pickup in demand, nothing special there in terms of big customers.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Thanks.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Yes, Juan maybe I'll just say that we're going to learn a lot more about vaccine requirements and effectiveness in the coming months. These learnings are going to aid our thinking as we formulate our guidance for fiscal year 2022 later this year. That said, I'd say that we do anticipate manufacturing vaccines into our fiscal year 2022, which begins on July 1 and likely for calendar year 2020 also.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Okay.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Good morning.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Yeah, we're pretty razor-focused on M&A. This is -- there is some really attractive candidates out there that would substantially add to our market positions. And so we're really focused on those candidates.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Good morning, Chase.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Say that again?[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Yes hi good evening everyone.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Sure. John, do you want to take that?[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
I think [Speech Overlap] -- sure. The underlying question comes back to, as Brian broke out the portions of it. We essentially are looking at an environment in the second half of the year where the medical cost environment will be slightly above baseline. And the pieces of that are that the non-COVID or the, call it, traditional parts of medical costs, approximate baseline in the commercial portfolio. And above and beyond that, there's some additional load for COVID.
So one would have to believe that either, a, the non-COVID costs are going to run above baseline for some reason that they haven't to date, when we look at the way we built up the proxy for baseline and/or that the additional COVID costs that we're saying are additive to that, will be materially greater, right?
So we acknowledge it's the fluid environment beyond shadow of a doubt. But we believe that the estimate we've made for the step up in aggregate for the rest of the year to run slightly above baseline is an appropriate assessment based upon the pattern we saw in the end of the first quarter and the way in which the second quarter has evolved and developed. And as I noted, we have about two-thirds of the risk business yet to be priced for 2022.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
This is Aaron [Phonetic] on for Jeff. Just one quick one for me. Rod, you mentioned churn and the efforts you guys are taking there as far as retention goes, curious a little more color around what you're seeing right now as far as churn is concerned, what's working as far as retention is going? And kind of how does that compare over the last couple of quarters to a year?[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
You know, with Pura Vida, right, with the launch of apparel and backpacks, we're seeing some really nice early results, obviously those collections are limited. But we're learning a lot about the customer, what she's responding to sizing and we definitely think that really building out Pura Vida from a lifestyle brand over multi-years just provides some real significant opportunity because I think that Pura Vida could become much more balanced instead of just so heavy on the jewelry category. So I think there is significant opportunity long term as we build out those categories.
In terms of thredUP, there are really a few reasons why we did the thredUP partnership. One is really continuing as the customer continues to be more and more focused on environmental, right. It gives us an opportunity for -- to lead into this up cycle environment to the ability for customers to kind of clean out their closet as we definitely know a lot of our loyalist have a lot of Vera Bradley product.
So hopefully they can open up some space, kind of use those gift cards to repurchase again, and buy into the newer Vera Bradley product. We think that provides another opportunity for simulation of future revenue. But it's a new program for us, we just launched it. We've been pleased with the early results, and we'll just see how it scales over time.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
You bet. Thanks, Mark.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
I was teasing you, Jamie. We'll get it. We'll sort it out.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Waqar, this is Mark. We're still in -- it depends on the customer, the rig, the region, but we're still in between 1,000 and 2,000, yes. And that same ZIP code, if you will, on the incremental uplift for the performance contracts.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Thank you. So I guess the question for me is with regards to the underlying sort of economic and operating assumptions for the lower and upper part of both the revenue and margin outlook. And given the confidence implied in post 1Q acceleration, I guess the follow-on to that is the supply side question because when I look at high utilization and sequentially higher attrition, can you provide some comfort on the ability to meet delivery objectives of that implied acceleration of demand?[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Well, I think what we -- what you're seeing here is that the -- the momentum we had going into the pandemic, the acceleration that we've got from the pandemic, decisions we've made, you know, to -- to jettison the retail of Harry & David and double down and focus on e-commerce, you know, the customer file that we've built. We're just -- it's been a pivotal -- pivotable -- pivotable -- pivotal moment for us and for our company to really seize the opportunities that have been presented. So, I think you're right, Dan. I think that we're -- we're in a much better position than we were a year ago.
We're bigger, stronger, better company, better assets, the additional acquisitions that we've done put us in place, and we're -- we're looking at a good -- good growth rates going forward.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Thank you, Craig.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Thanks, Jim. I think that -- when we look at it and the fact that we -- our guidance is exactly what it was in February. I think overall, things are in line with what we thought they would be. And quarter-to-quarter, things do change, just like here we said, the one customer in China in the first quarter brought a lot more, which the percentage went up. But overall, for the year, I think we're pretty much are in the ballpark with all the customers.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Yes. Look so I think that obviously the wireline is right now is a hot market. I think it's going to continue to grow very sustainably throughout 2021. I think the wireless market growth will be more back-end loaded just based on the spectrum auctions right? So today our business is -- it's probably just a little bit bigger on the wireline side than it is on the wireless side. I think we've done a good job at really following the market and changing that mix.
I think we're going to benefit from both. I think shorter term over the next couple of years, fiber will probably be a really big growth opportunity for us. And the wireless will be right behind it. So I think over time our wireless exposure is fantastic because I think that that business is going to grow tremendously in the coming years both from a deployment perspective and then ultimately from a maintenance perspective. So again, we think we're really well positioned on both sides of that market and are going to benefit from both.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
I think --[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Thanks, Joe.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Sure, Ryan. Thank you.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
I would say the renters are not terribly different than first time homebuyers. People moving into areas, they're looking for housing. They're looking for a better lifestyle, things if probably have surprised us, level of demand and the lack not only from a rental standpoint but from what I consider institutional type investor base that is -- that has bought the three that we've sold. It may not be a white hot for sale business this year compared to last year, but it is a white hot meet build rent business especially the way we're positioning these projects as kind of on the affordable and self-contained not intermixed with [Indecipherable] housing.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Yeah.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Yes. No, you're exactly right. The same trends that we're talking about, again, are the drivers of the tail revenue adjustment. And again, we update and do that every quarter.
And so all those findings make its way not just in our new LTVs we recognize, but we're also on our look back on a quarterly basis as well.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Do you guys hear me?[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
So Steve, to confirm if the FDA ends up saying, OK, you need another study, you're willing to do another study in one of these subgroups? Is that confirmed?[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Well, thank you for the questions, Daniel. And when it comes to these floating loads at the end of the third quarter and the impact of the price evolution on the results of the fourth quarter, you're right. The important part of the quarter has gone through and the average prices are very similar to those of the end of the third quarter. At present day prices, we have lower volumes of these open volumes; so the impact will be lower. Now, if the prices remain as they are, the impact will be less than $50 million. It's a fraction of what it was in the third quarter. And we hope to show you that this impact was non-recurrent in terms of Cement.
I would like to ask, Edvaldo, to help me with the answer.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Yes. I certainly think that the revenue run rate will kind of play out over the course of the next couple of quarters. But we have given guidance, if we'd call it guidance, around our personnel expense and our SG&A that we've provided in past quarters of personnel around 0.5 billion -- or personnel around $1.4 billion and SG&A around $500 million. We still think that holds together as we look at our forecast through the balance of the year. And that's obviously an enterprise number. Yes. And maybe just one other point that I'd make. We've talked a lot about flat head count, but I really want to go back again to the thesis that it's about growing volume ahead of head count. We're not afraid to add head count. We're not holding back on adding head count. It's just a matter of making that commitment that we believe that we can deliver volume growth in excess of whatever that head count add is.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Yes. I mean what we're -- we had a couple of large deals that were slated for the third quarter that pushed into the fourth -- And then we had some seasonal -- expected seasonal headwinds with Gainshare that will reverse course into tailwinds in the fourth quarter.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Great. Thanks very much Amy. The cash flow in the quarter ex the audit settlement was far ahead of everyone's expectations, and I know you talked about strong billings in the quarter. But as we look forward, are there any puts and takes that we should be aware of? Or should we just focus on cash flow growing pretty much in line with net income?[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Yeah. I mean, Arun, good morning. What I would say is, look, our target, which has been our target since before spin is really a long-term rating agency adjusted net debt-to-EBITDA target of between 2.5 and 3. And so, you know, we're -- we're above that today by about 150 basis points.
Really mainly because of the lower EBITDA as well as the lower interest rates which really drove, you know, another $1 billion increase on the -- on the pension side of the house. So we still have some work to do, and that is why we are going to do about $1 billion roughly of deleveraging. It is our target for 2021, on top of all the other things that I said. But you know, we -- we understand your point, and we agree with it.
And certainly, as earnings continue to improve, we -- we will take another hard look at share buyback at a minimum to cover dilution. And then we'll see how the back half of the year goes. We will all see how some of those best owner projects that we are working on goes. And if we have excess cash, you know, we'll -- we'll be -- we'll use that excess cash aligned with Jim's capital allocation priorities that he -- that he walked through earlier.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Sure. Maybe I'll start, Jean, or do you want to -- [/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Hey, Brian, good morning. I think that there's a couple of points. We talk about pricing actions that we would expect to benefit the fruit business. We would also expect to continue to the next benefit is obviously the -- that the growth profiles of the two segments are different.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Yes. I think we have opportunity to do that, but our first and sort of primary objective is finding the customers that really value what we're doing for them. So we're -- we can handle the incremental opportunities where they become available. And as you know, there are different categories of sort of capacity in an LTL, right, could be drivers, could be doors. Those are all things that could influence this. And I would tell you that different terminals, just like back in April, we're probably not have much in a way of spare capacity. We're trying to address those. But one of the ways you first address those, as you say, let's make sure we understand what the mix of business that's going through these assets.
And the service levels we're providing, we focus on that. So this is -- at this stage, we have spare capacity in the network, but we have more capacity to change freight where we think there is a better opportunity to provide that service that we can be reimbursed for. And I think right now, for us, that is ultimately the biggest value driver. I think that positions us for future growth. I think as we see opportunities, certainly, we can take on additional business.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Yeah, I think there is a couple of different dynamics and clearly volume has a big component there and we've all been faced with a variety of different commodity related aspects that have impacted us. We've worked through those. We've got not only primary channels, but we have secondary channels to take care of the supply constraints that sometimes ends up having some impact on the business. But we've navigated those and I think we've got good line of sight as Rod had noted in relationship to the outlook that's been provided.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
It's some of that, Jason, but it's not all banked on that. So it's also just in anticipation of volume rebounding from the pandemic. So I think Eric had a question too on that. But we all know there's varying stuff's going on. But frankly, we're not seeing anything like that right now impacting our volumes. So we still are anticipating that we're going to gradually recover. And so as we put on more fuel volume and we grow volumes, that really also is a driver to our margin per gallon. Along with the RINs that's helpful. But the LCFS has been -- is lower than when we started the year, right? So that hasn't necessarily been off the charts. It's still strong, and by no means, not good, but that's kind of off the RINs picked up. So there's always a little bit of this and that goes on, but then the fuel --[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
So, Brian, I just want to -- I'll answer that one. We're not leaving the Midwest. Okay. So we're not leaving the Midwest. We're complementing and bringing the Enterprise way to good markets with good companies and we have done it organically in Phoenix. Certainly, we did it well in Northern New Mexico. Seacoast obviously is a specialized side of things. But as we look at good companies, first would be the priority. And then obviously there is a trajectory to the South, Southwest, just because, as Scott has pointed out in his comments, there is just more positive business growth in those markets and our model has been accepted very well that way. So we're confident about our ability to perform there, but I just -- we're not leaving the Midwest. The Midwest is still very strong anchor to our business and will continue to be.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Listen, everybody is very, very busy right now. I would say supply chain issues aside. North America, labor is very tight. I mean, you read about that debt as a fact. So a lot of our customers are doing what we're doing, just really using Kaizen, automation where appropriate, etc. But I don't look, every time there's a ramp, there's a little bit of a bullwhip effect, but this is no different than anything I've seen in the past. It's just people trying to manage the increase in demand.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Yeah. Lauren, the 2020 [Phonetic] outlook definitely reflects our confidence in our ability to sustain healthy brand performance, but we do expect to have a net drag due to the COVID overlap or the COVID affected demand overlap from 2020. So that 1% to 2% organic, it's in lower half of our range, but it does reflect healthy underlying performance in both Personal Care and Consumer Tissue, Personal Care being up, as I mentioned, about 5% organic in the fourth quarter, and then we believe toward the second half an improvement in K-C Professional.
The drag in Consumer Tissue, the way we're looking at that business and we're tracking, we think there is a pretty good correlation with mobility data. We do expect the current environment in developed markets to look similar to what it is right now through the first half, and then for people to gradually begin returning to work in the second half. And so that's what we factored in. We know there will be a cycle, and in our plans right now but certainly a part of it will be -- that will be -- will be lapping some big stock of activity that occurred toward the end of the first quarter of last year and throughout the second quarter of last year. We know we'll be cycling that, but we do still expect at-home consumption to be somewhat more elevated than -- certainly than 2019, and -- down from 2020, but still certainly a lot more elevated. And then we feel like we have strong momentum in our Personal Care business globally. And as you go across markets, we saw robust growth and share growth against most of our personal care businesses across markets.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Thank you.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Well, thank you, John. First of all, there seems very focused and we're excited with the results that we had together with the Caliber team. I think we've got a great relationship with energy overall, including Shellpoint and, with any large servicers that are out there, we're in constant contact with them. And so, we believe that our MSP platform is the right solution for the market. And we continue to demonstrate it through lots of innovation and integration that we bring to it. And so, as you'd imagine, we are in pursuit of them and other large services, not on the platform today.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
In terms of the EBITDA trends, we don't provide a guidance or forecast on EBITDA. I -- I think that maybe the previous question answer -- my answer to the previous question, to touch upon that, is a, we look at efficiency of investments. And b, we look at each market and timing based on the -- what's the natural pace of growth and how we can invest in that growth with -- with efficiency. And three, there could be optimistic events that could drive EBITDA fluctuations over a period of time.
But most importantly, I think, suffice it to say is that we can break even if we choose to at this point, even at this take rate. And our Taiwan take rate is not -- for example, that's a first the market where we focus even and we have achieved a very healthy EBITDA margins there as we've previously disclosed before. And the take rate in Taiwan is not the highest even among our existing markets. So, it's not -- to say that, you know, we have to drive to a very high tax rate to be able to break even.
Our investment in growth is really by choice and -- and according to the pace that we think is suitable for each market. So, we're in a very good position right now where our destiny is in our own hands and then we can control the pace of investments and allocation of each market in a highly dynamic and elastic way to drive efficient growth. In terms of the take rate, our take rate has actually increased quarter on quarter. That doesn't decline.
Happy to elaborate further offline but if you look at our past disclosure, there's increase in the take rate quarter on quarter.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Michael, I can say that because we're not going to get out that far is that all of our geographies and all of our different product segments are seeing gross margin expansion today. And that is with contingencies we put in place to cover certain level of cost increases or uncertainties that are out in the market. I'm not going to predict as far as you talked about how that gross margin compares to industry historic highs. I can't even predict how it compares to today except what I just said, all geographies, all product types are seeing gross margin expansion on the next homes sold at this moment in time.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Thanks, Josh.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Such a -- it's a good question. And I'll tell you, one of the things I've always challenged our team with, Stephanie, over the years was, if you were the largest IDN in the country, what are the services and capabilities that you would never probably invest in?
And hence, it's the way that we've continued to diversify our capability, right? It's that continual investment in the technology, the technology platforms, our investment in IDS, our investment in really automating the point of order, extending pricing to non-acute facilities and those kinds of capabilities.
It's our focus on direct sourcing and the partnerships that we're creating for generic drugs and gloves and masks and isolation gowns. But it's this focus on doing things at a scale that an IDN would be very -- it'd be a stretch for an IDN to actually accomplish.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Dave Ruud do you want to take that?[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Erik, Thank you for the question. I think that should be -- that's directed to Todd and perhaps Jonathan.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
You're welcome.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Well, when the pandemic initially started, we rolled out BOP in a few states, and we kind of took a pause to reassess not whether we're going to go in but just reassess sort of what states we want to do audit, our computer system, etc. And we are now rolling out very quickly in many, many states. We're very excited about it. Remember, when we think about small business, we think about employees of 20 or less, almost micro-businesses.
That is growing very rapidly, albeit on a very small base. But we're excited about what we're learning. We feel good about where we're at from a rate perspective. So we -- and Karen can talk about this more in August.
I'm going to have her come because I know there's a lot of questions on commercial, and I'll have her outline where we're at on all the BMTs and especially BOP and small business and fleet. But no, we're very excited to continue to roll that out aggressively. [/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Hi. Thank you. So Doug, you mentioned the subsea performance in the first quarter was strong, and it sounded like there was some manufacturing throughput that helped there. And certainly, as we progress from here, I would suspect that that stays at a similar level or improves, and then you get a seasonal recovery in services.
So just based on that understanding, I would think that your margins would be biased higher in the second and third quarter from where you were in the first. Just curious if you have any commentary around that.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Thanks for taking my question. I'd be interested in your perspective on what you all think about hedging at this point in time. I know the curve is very backward dated. It doesn't look like you've done a lot of incremental stuff, if any at all, on oil, but it does seem like you did make mention that you put some gas hedges on into 2022.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Now, we're seeing very positive results in the Industrial segment and might have seen a reason why those won't continue. I know a year ago, they were probably one of our more impacted areas as a result of the lockdown. So we're optimistic that as long as things stay open and running that they will be able to outperform.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Yes, it's about $2 million of rent that was deferred for January and February, but then I'll go back to cash since they've reopened their property and that $2 million, we expect to collect during 2020 when we close on the transaction.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Yes. It impacted about 300 of our folks, most of which we've redeployed on to other programs in our portfolio. But as we also indicated, we expect that it will continue to grow over time. With regard to the divestiture, that was about 120 people tied in our army account.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
I'm sorry. I was on mute there. Excuse me. As you know, the situation is active.
As I'm sure you can appreciate, I can't really say much more than that. The Board continues to believe this is without merit, and we're in early stages of this process. And again, I'm sure you can appreciate, I can't really say much more than that.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Thank you. Maybe just on the services front. How are you thinking about bringing some of those back? You mentioned kind of the modified services in certain hotels and markets. And what if any customer pushback have you seen or heard?[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Thank you.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Sure. I know Rob is on the phone and is always eager to talk about all the great things that is happening in Worcester. So maybe, Rob, if you want to share that?[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Well, whenever you see one of your colleagues who is involved in similar areas that you are get acquired and at a very nice premium, I don't think that it makes any of us feel anything but good, right? I mean, that's just a shareholder, a broad shareholder perspective, and one that I'd -- be hard for anybody to argue against. I think that it's an interesting deal. We won't go into how we view various elements of the deal itself, but I will say that it was a healthy price. It was still a relatively early asset, and I'd just say more opportunities will come the way for patients to get better therapy as more resources are put into any of these drugs.
So good for them and good for the business, and most of all, good for patients.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Great. Thanks for the question, Elizabeth, and everybody else. That's all the time we have today. Thank you all for joining us and have a good day.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
I think if you look at the gross margin, it's a fact therein that the lower gross margin quarter -- there's a couple of other things that, obviously, in Q1 last year, we had record production in our largest facility and minimal impact from the pandemic. When you look at gross margin, we had some, obviously, some unfavorable absorption impact because we weren't producing for that period of time. So, that's probably where you see a little bit. It wasn't material in any sense, but it was a headwind to our gross margin for the quarter. Got it. Thanks a lot, guys. Really appreciate the time.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Do you want to take it, Pato?[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Yeah. Sure, Tim. I mean, I think certainly from a liquidity position, we feel really good. If you look at the different forms of liquidity, we've got the revolver, obviously, a key to us sort of managing cash on the balance sheet. As I mentioned, we've got this new facility that we put in place. We closed on the CLO so, as assets pay off of that we'll have capacity to refinance there. So we feel really well positioned.
Additionally, we also quoted in the supplemental, we have $374 million of unencumbered assets that are sitting on the balance sheet. Those are assets that we could pledge to facilities and borrow additional capital against that. So, we feel well-positioned to manage the pipeline, which as Matt indicated is pretty robust at $1.1 billion and we think the opportunity set behind that is also pretty great. So I think we feel really good to be able to fund the commitments that we've got and also capitalize on opportunities that may come up.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
Well, I would say that we will have increased costs associated with that. But the run rate and the build-out was reflected in our January outlook. And so none of that really came through there that as you think about what the change in our outlook was and just using the midpoint of those guidance ranges that total revenues are up $160 million from what we would have shown before. Expenses are up $80 million.
And so efficiency ratio of about 50% on that revenue growth, and that really relates to the growth coming from higher expected capital markets-related revenues and higher consumer mortgage revenues, which both have a strong variable expense component to it.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME<</SYS>>
That's right. That's right.[/INST]
Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
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