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https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/chidambaram-modi-budget-2020-zero-questions-5-trillion-economy-target/story/395656.html

Former finance minister P Chidambaram, during an interview with India Today on Thursday, rated Modi government's Budget 2020 as "zero". He said the compelling need of the hour was to arrest the six-quarter decline and revive growth, but the budget offered nothing. "Therefore, I would not hesitate to rate it zero," he said. On Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's claim that the announcements made in the Union Budget 2020 will trigger growth, Chidambaram said: "Current year nominal growth was estimated at 12 per cent, and we ended up with 8.5 (per cent). For the next year, if you are projecting nominal growth at 10 per cent, that's not a revival. And if nominal is going to be 10 per cent, how do you (the Centre) say that the growth will be 6-6.5 per cent?" The Congress leader said that historically, it had been seen that the difference between nominal growth and real growth was between 4 or 5 per cent. He said the Centre claimed inflation was under control. "But, is it?" he said, adding the CPI (consumer price index) inflation had crossed 7 per cent. "WPI is high, and food inflation is over 10 per cent. Therefore, every number (the Centre puts out) can be contested," he said. ALSO READ: Budget 2020: Government needs higher capex and reliable sources to finance it Chidambaram said during the Budget 2020 announcement, the Finance Minister claimed the economic growth slide would be arrested and that economic growth would kick-start from now. "I can't see how that'll happen," he added. On the issue of infusion of Rs 100 lakh crore in infrastructure, Chidambaram said: "This Rs 100 lakh crore is all puffery. We have to look at real numbers. In the current year, they planned to spend (total expenditure) Rs 27,86,000 crore. They ended up spending Rs 26,98,000 crore, roughly Rs 1 lakh crore less." He said the Centre must tell it'll raise the revenue to spend. "Even though evidence shows it's not even able to spend the money allocated, either because of lack of funds or the government does not know how to spend," he said. On the issue of disinvestment and partial stake sale of state-owned Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC), Chidambaram hinted the Centre's divestment target was highly exaggerated. ALSO READ: Confused between old, new income tax slabs? I-T Dept launches e-calculator to compare "There are two issues, in the current year they planned to raise Rs 1,05,000 crore. On Budget Day, they raised Rs 18,000 crore. The revised estimate says Rs 65,000 crore. Let's assume they will raise Rs 47,000 crore in the remaining two months. Next year, they have pitched they're at Rs 2,10,000 crore," he said, adding these numbers were unrealistic. Chidambaram said the Centre needed to tell people why it wanted to sell the LIC? "LIC is no longer a monopoly. LIC is competing with the largest insurance companies in the world. LIC is profitable, well-managed and has increased its market share last year," he said, adding that it must explain why the government puts LIC and Air India in the same boat. On the issue of $5 trillion economy and the Centre's claim of doubling agriculture income by 2022, Chidambaram said Chief Economic Advisor KV Subramanian, in the Economic Survey 2020, shifted the $5 trillion economy goal to 2030 from 2024. "So why has he shifted the goalpost? And why hasn't the government acknowledged that?" He said the Centre needed to first tell if the $5 trillion economy goal was nominal or real GDP? "What have you assumed dollar value of rupee? That assumption is very important before you come to the conclusion of $5 trillion economy," he said. MUST WATCH: P Chidambaram exclusive interview: Ex-FM analyses the budget Edited by Manoj Sharma

former finance minister rated the budget 2020 as "zero" he said the budget offered nothing to revive growth. he said the need of the hour was to arrest the six-quarter decline. he said the Centre claimed inflation was under control. he said the infusion of Rs 100 lakh crore in infrastructure is "all puffery". he said the government must tell it'll raise the revenue to spend.

Negative

https://www.livemint.com/Politics/t87eOLBL2RPw7JiUlhrwaL/RBI-rate-hikes-may-hurt-farmers-study-says.html

New Delhi: Later this week, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee will meet to provide its assessment of inflation in India and, accordingly, set the repo rate. At the meeting, they will consider various factors that threaten inflation. It was based on one of these factors—the increase in minimum support price (MSP) for crops—that the RBI had raised the repo rate earlier this year in August. However, a new study suggests that the RBI’s fears may have been overstated and the move could hurt farmers. In a paper published in the latest Economic and Political Weekly, S. Mohanakumar and Premkumar examine the relationship between the MSP (a guaranteed price provided by the government for farmer’s produce) and inflation. Analyzing data from 2005-06 to 2017-18, they find that there is no statistically significant relationship between MSP for major crops (wheat, rice and cotton) and inflation. They argue that the lack of relationship is partly because many farmers do not even sell their produce at MSP. They point to a NITI Aayog study which revealed that only 10% of India’s farmers are even aware of MSP before they sow their crops. Consequently, authors believe the RBI’s response to hike the repo rate was inappropriate and could backfire. Since farmers rely heavily on credit for their production, a rate hike which increases the cost of credit will increase the supply price of agricultural commodities, according to the authors. The increased cost of borrowing may also offset gains for farmers from the increase in MSP. More broadly, the authors argue that the RBI’s rate hike could aggravate India’s agriculture crisis and even hurt small non-agricultural businesses. Also read: Minimum Support Price and Inflation in India, Milestone Alert!Livemint tops charts as the fastest growing news website in the world 🌏 Click here to know more.

RBI raised the repo rate earlier this year based on increase in minimum support price (MSP) for crops. but new study suggests fears may have been overstated and the move could hurt farmers. only 10% of farmers are even aware of MSP before they sow their crops. authors argue hike could aggravate India’s agriculture crisis and even hurt small non-agricultural businesses.

Negative

https://www.financialexpress.com/money/commercial-real-estate-may-do-well-in-post-covid-19-world/1970958/

The outbreak of COVID-19 has created a global health crisis, and its economic impact is also bigger. The abrupt halt of urban activities has led to a demand, supply and market shock. Reports suggest that the Indian GDP took an immense hit as its three major contributors – private consumption, investments, and external trade — were affected. These effects have percolated to all sectors, and real estate is no exception – constructions were stopped for a month at the project sites and so were the sales. Speculations suggest a rise in the number of fence-sitters and delay in decisions on large investments like real estate, which may further escalate the agony. While retail and offices might take a little more time to be ‘Business as usual’, realtors are gearing up for the ‘new normal’ once the lockdown is over. According to a Savills report, the post-COVID-19 scenario will give a fresh start to the realty sector with a renewed vigour. The commercial realty is expected to bounce back once the lockdown is lifted. Over the past few years, the commercial real estate sector has been, by and large, resilient to slowdown. It has also been the preferred investment choice as it is insulated from market volatility in the long run. A commercial property gives the average rental yield of 6%-10%, as opposed to the rental yield of 1.5% – 3.5% from a residential property. The same holds for capital appreciation in the current market scenario. Moreover, in the year 2019, the Indian retail witnessed a total PE inflow of $970 million with the commercial real estate attracting the maximum private equity investments to the tune of $3 billion in the first three quarters alone. A Colliers International report foresees continuity in private equity investment in Indian real estate over the long term, with a robust growth as compared to other major economies despite the COVID-19 outbreak. These statistics indicate the immense potential of commercial realty. Moreover, it is to be noted that the COVID-19 pandemic is only a temporary phase. Hence, it is likely that once the situation returns to normalcy, the prices will move towards an upward trajectory owing to a huge pent-up demand in the sector. Fortunately, the government has announced a series of initiatives to propel the Indian economy. Additionally, the extension of deadline for completion of real estate projects and the Reserve Bank of India’s decision to allow a moratorium on all loans and deferment in interest payment on these loans for three months will be a huge breather for the real estate sector. Moreover, another cut in the reverse repo rate by 40 bps from 3.75 per cent to 3.35 per cent will further inject liquidity into the economy. Nevertheless, the COVID-19 pandemic will also redefine certain trends in the realty sector. Going forward, we expect that hygiene and wellness will be a key factor in assessing properties in both commercial and residential segments. In the commercial sector, it will compel developers to revisit their operational activities and services and carry out a comprehensive assessment of their hygiene and wellness measures. Also, the role of emerging technologies such as Virtual Reality, Artificial Intelligence, and 3D walkthroughs will become increasingly dominant and will continue to disrupt the real estate segment. Bolstered by enabling policy reforms and demand pick-up, once the situation returns to normalcy, it will ensure that the commercial realty remains buoyant and continues to attract private equity investments. (By Ravish Kapoor, Managing Director, Elan Group)

the outbreak of COVID-19 has created a global health crisis. it has also led to a demand, supply and market shock. constructions were stopped for a month at the project sites. a colliers report foresees continuity in private equity investment in the sector. commercial realty is expected to bounce back once the lockdown is lifted.

Negative

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/telecom/telecom-news/chinas-huawei-zte-set-to-be-shut-out-of-indias-5g-trials/articleshow/77528916.cms

China’s Huawei Technologies Co. and ZTE Corp. are set to be kept out of India’s plans to roll out its 5G networks as relations between the two countries hit a four decade low following deadly border clashes.The South Asian nation will apply investment rules amended on July 23 that cite national security concerns to restrict bidders from nations it shares land borders with to keep out the companies, people familiar with the issue said, asking not to be identified citing rules.The Ministry of Communications will restart pending discussions on approvals for 5G trials by private companies including Bharti Airtel Ltd., Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd., and Vodafone Idea Ltd. that were delayed by the nationwide lockdown, they said.India’s decision echoes actions by the U.S., U.K. and Australia, which have raised red flags about the companies’ Chinese government links. The U.S. Federal Communications Commission has officially declared both companies national security threats.The process to auction 5G may spill into next year, according to the officials. A decision on the ban is expected to be announced in a week or two after approval from the prime minister’s office, they said.A spokesman for the communications ministry and the prime minister’s office didn’t immediately respond to queries seeking comment.While India allowed Huawei to participate in its 5G trials earlier this year, its stance against Chinese companies hardened after China’s actions along their disputed border in early May. That military standoff, which turned deadly in June killing 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese troops, is now in its fourth month.Huawei and ZTE didn’t respond to emails seeking comments.“Telecom infrastructure has become part of national security assets and nations are looking at controlling and regulating them just like they do power and water,” said Nikhil Batra, Sydney-based analyst at International Data Corp. “But the Indian market is already battling infrastructure and regulatory problems. The network equipment market is a small one. So India’s challenges will compound from such a decision.”Telecom companies were expected to invest $4 billion in setting up 5G infrastructure, according to IDC estimates.That could be tough as companies including Bharti, Vodafone Group Plc and even state-run firms continue to struggle to make existing 4G networks profitable. There’s already heavy reliance on Chinese equipment in its 4G networks. And shutting doors to Huawei and ZTE could increase costs of a switch to 5G by as much as 35%, according to Rajiv Sharma, head of research at SBICAP Securities Ltd.Reliance could be a serious challenge to Huawei in the world’s second-biggest wireless market after Indian billionaire Mukesh Ambani on July 15 announced plans to soon roll out a 5G network for his Jio Infocomm using a technology developed in-house, without giving details.His conglomerate has said its carrier won’t need to spend much to switch to the new system, unlike some of its rivals, leaving it immune to political disputes linked to Chinese equipment vendors that global telecommunications companies are embroiled in.Yet, with its economy headed for a ‘deep slump’ amid a worsening Covid-19 pandemic, the government may not be in a position to push for a 5G spectrum auction in the near future.

the country will apply investment rules amended on July 23. the move cites national security concerns to restrict bidders from nations it shares land borders with. the move echoes actions by the u.s., uk and australia. the process to auction 5G may spill into next year. both companies were declared national security threats by the fcc.

Negative

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india/coronavirus-wrap-april-14-here-are-the-top-developments-of-the-day-5146451.html

Representational picture The number of coronavirus cases in India breached the 10,000 mark with 1,463 infections being recorded in the past 24 hours— the sharpest ever spike in cases since the outbreak began in the country. The total number of deaths due to the infection stood at 353. Here are the latest updates from the day: >> Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his address to the nation, announced that the nationwide lockdown would be extended till May 3. Also Read: Lockdown extended till May 3: Here's the full text of PM Narendra Modi’s speech COVID-19 Vaccine Frequently Asked Questions View more How does a vaccine work? A vaccine works by mimicking a natural infection. A vaccine not only induces immune response to protect people from any future COVID-19 infection, but also helps quickly build herd immunity to put an end to the pandemic. Herd immunity occurs when a sufficient percentage of a population becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely. The good news is that SARS-CoV-2 virus has been fairly stable, which increases the viability of a vaccine. How many types of vaccines are there? There are broadly four types of vaccine — one, a vaccine based on the whole virus (this could be either inactivated, or an attenuated [weakened] virus vaccine); two, a non-replicating viral vector vaccine that uses a benign virus as vector that carries the antigen of SARS-CoV; three, nucleic-acid vaccines that have genetic material like DNA and RNA of antigens like spike protein given to a person, helping human cells decode genetic material and produce the vaccine; and four, protein subunit vaccine wherein the recombinant proteins of SARS-COV-2 along with an adjuvant (booster) is given as a vaccine. What does it take to develop a vaccine of this kind? Vaccine development is a long, complex process. Unlike drugs that are given to people with a diseased, vaccines are given to healthy people and also vulnerable sections such as children, pregnant women and the elderly. So rigorous tests are compulsory. History says that the fastest time it took to develop a vaccine is five years, but it usually takes double or sometimes triple that time. View more Show >> The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on April 14 slashed growth forecast for the Indian economy, projecting a GDP growth of 1.9 percent in 2020. >> Migrants came out in large numbers in Mumbai's Bandra area demanding permission to go home. Mumbai Police later said that the cause of the gathering was a rumor that they would be allowed to board trains to their hometowns. >> 602 hospitals earmarked as dedicated COVID-19 facilities, Health Ministry said. >> The World Health Organization lauded "India's tough and timely actions" against the outbreak. Follow our LIVE coverage here. >> Railways offers full refund for trains cancelled till May 3 and for advance bookings. >> New York governor Andrew Cuomo said the 'worst is over' and joins forces with the northeastern states to reopen economy. >> Iran said that novel coronavirus deaths have dropped below 100 for first time in a month. Click here to get all the news and updates on the coronavirus pandemic

the number of coronavirus cases in india breached the 10,000 mark. the sharpest ever spike in cases since the outbreak began in the country. the total number of deaths due to the infection stood at 353. a vaccine works by mimicking a natural infection. a vaccine not only induces immune response to protect people from any future COVID-19 infection.

Negative

https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/sme/msme-fin-small-businesses-struggle-to-survive-amid-covid-19-may-tap-into-working-capital-loans-to-sustain-ahead/1922693/

Credit and Finance for MSMEs: Small and medium businesses, which constitute 19.3 per cent of the total bank loan, are likely to tap into their sanctioned working capital limits by banks amid squeezing liquidity and financial crisis due to the Covid-19 outbreak. “We expect immediately that companies will draw more from their sanctioned working capital limits for a couple of months but it will be difficult for them if it persists for long,” according to the SBI Ecowrap report. According to the data from the Reserve Bank of India, bank credit as of February-end stood at Rs 89.8 lakh crore out of which Rs 10.95 lakh crore was deployed in micro and small enterprises – 6.7 per cent up from same period last year. “They are in need of more working capital to sustain and bear their fixed costs etc. to keep going. They need that liquidity. Some of them may be earning revenues, some of them not depending on the sector. For instance in FMCG, they may be but perhaps not in sectors like automobiles while the effect varies. It is for the banker to assess their viability of stay alive and whether liquidity issue doesn’t morph into insolvency issue,” Renu Kohli, a Delhi-based independent economist told Financial Express Online. According to the RBI, as per Nayak Committee Report, working capital limits to small scale industry (SSI) units is computed on the basis of minimum 20 per cent of their estimated turnover up to credit limit of Rs 5 crore. Also read: Job cuts on anvil: Small, medium retailers may layoff this many employees as Covid-19 kills liquidity Small businesses, for example, in retail are staring at job cuts amid crumbled operations due to Coronavirus. As per a survey by the retail trade body Retailers Asociation of India, small retailers are likely to lay off 30 per cent of their employee strength ahead while medium retailers are expected to cut 12 per cent of their manpower, according to 768 retailers (including 682 small and medium retailers) responding in the survey. “Support for salary, a larger amount for sustaining business, relief in interest rates, and a better moratorium for repayments is what we seek from the government,” Kumar Rajagopalan, CEO, Retailers Association of India had told Financial Express Online as among they asks from the government to help small and medium retailers financially. The report from SBI also noted that the loss in labour and capital income of around Rs 3.60 lakh crore is maximum in hotels, trade, education, petroleum and agriculture. This is due to the “unorganized and proprietary form of business organization and nature of self-employment in our economy that accounts for around 30 per cent of GDP,” it added seeking a fiscal package for them. “There is a case for a fiscal package for them. Many of them may be just self-employed or at best having two-three people who are very often family members etc. All monetary, regulatory or fiscal measures taken by the government and RBI have been limited to one quarter. There will be many businesses will flounder, which is to say they are very weak. So viability is an issue there,” added Kohli.

small and medium businesses are likely to tap into working capital limits. banks are squeezing liquidity and financial crisis due to the covid-19 outbreak. small retailers are likely to lay off 30 per cent of their employee strength ahead. medium retailers are expected to cut 12 per cent of their manpower. a survey by retail trade body Retailers Asociation of India found that small retailers are likely to lay off 30 per cent of their employee strength ahead.

Negative

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/small-biz/sme-sector/a-blanket-ban-on-chinese-goods-not-in-the-best-interest-of-india-calibrated-well-thought-out-strategy-needed-fieo/articleshow/76626415.cms

New Delhi: An outright blanket ban is not in the best interest of India and is “not feasible at the moment, industry body Federation of Indian Export Organisations FIEO ) on Thursday said.Amid growing calls in the country to boycott made-in-China goods, FIEO is all for “a calibrated, well-thought-out strategy” on the issue, said FIEO President Sharad K Saraf According to industry representative, there are many items belonging to ' essential imports ' category which are critical for the production of several finished products that are exported worldwide, and thus there is a need to thoroughly analyse the pros and cons of any move and its possible repercussions.“Given the Indian manufacturers’ huge dependence on Chinese imports, if China also takes retaliatory measures then the blow to Indian players will be far more damaging”, emphasised Saraf.Ever since 20 Indian soldiers died and more than 70 were injured in a clash with Chinese troops in Ladakh's Galwan area, there have been growing calls in the country to shun made-in-China goods.The Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) has even asked online retailers to explicitly display the ‘country of origin’ label, on all products sold on their platforms. The government ecommerce marketplace GeM also now exhibits a 'Make in India' filter, to help buyers know the ‘country of origin' of various goods on the platform.“While we stand with the government, at present, we are all against a knee jerk, emotion-led reaction on the issue [of boycotting Chinese goods]. If that happens, there will be a cost to be borne by the Indian economy for which it might not be ready as yet", said Ajay Sahai , Director-General, FIEO.According to official estimates, China remains India’s top trading partner. It accounted for over 5% of India’s total exports in the financial year 2019-20 and more than 14% of imports. Currently, the two neighbouring nation’s balance of trade (BoT) is heavily tilted in favour of China.“There is a need to work out on a well thought out strategy. One thing that we can do is to keep a check on the exports of our raw material to China, using which China is competing with us in many markets,” Saraf suggested, adding there could be a cess on Indian exports of raw material such as cotton, spices, plastics and chemicals to China.China is the third-largest export market for Indian goods as of FY19-20. Sahai added that 50-60 percent of Indian exports go to China in the form of raw material.In many Indian sectors such as electronics, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, manufacturers are hugely dependent on key imports from the neighbouring nation, which is also the world's second-largest economy. For example, a significant share of inputs required in electronics components manufacturing has traditionally been sourced from China. For many electronics manufacturers, it has always been financially viable to import the SKD (Semi Knocked Down) or CKD (Completely Knocked Down) equipment from China.With China in the backdrop, the apex body of exporters, while playing an active role in the government’s self-reliant India mission'( Aatma Nibhar Bharat Scheme), has asked its members to explore countries having high anti-China sentiments. These include countries such as the US, EU, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, among others.

FIEO is all for a "calculated, well-thought-out strategy" on the issue. there are many items belonging to 'essential imports' category. if China takes retaliatory measures then the blow to Indian players will be more damaging. 'we are all against a knee jerk, emotion-led reaction on the issue'

Negative

https://www.businesstoday.in/current/corporate/rils-rs-53000-cr-rights-issue-opens-may-20-should-you-subscribe/story/404225.html

The Rs 53,125 crore rights issue of Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) will open on May 20 and close on June 3. India's biggest and first such issue by the firm in nearly three decades offers one share for every 15 held at Rs 1,257, a 14.8 per cent discount from the current market price (CMP). The last time RIL tapped the public for funds was in 1991 via convertible debentures. But, considering the ongoing volatility in the stock markets, should investors subscribe to the rights issue? The issue offers a good opportunity to the investors planning to increase equity exposure in the company, Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities, told BusinessToday.In. There are very few companies that show the strength to withstand disruptions and have value unlocking triggers in the current scenario, Jasani added. "However, if one is afraid of equities now, then he can ignore the issue and also look to sell his original holdings in Reliance," Jasani noted. Adding, he said that the facility of making part payments is beneficial for shareholders in terms of parting liquidity. Of the Rs 1,257 per share price, only 25 per cent is to be paid at the time of subscription. A similar amount will be due for payment in May 2021 and the balance 50 per cent has to be paid in November 2021. The rights issue is also being seen by analysts as an attempt by the company to cut its debt. At the end of March quarter, RIL had an outstanding debt of Rs 3,36,294 crore. It also had cash in hand of Rs 1,75,259 crore, bringing the net debt position to Rs 1,61,035 crore. "We believe RIL's rights issue offered is a part of the company strategy that would help in deleveraging its balance sheet and achieve its target of reducing its net debt to zero by 2021. Further, we have a positive view on the company's growth prospects going ahead. Notably, the rights issue offer price (Rs 1,257) is trading at a discount of 14% (compared to the last closing price of Rs 1,459 on May 16, 2020) so one can apply to the rights issue," Ajit Mishra, VP Research, Religare Broking, told BusinessToday.In Commenting on the issue, Nirali Shah, Senior Research Analyst, Samco Securities, said, "With 4 deals bringing around Rs. 67,000 Cr to the table, it is almost certain that Jio will be demerged and listed, unlocking value for a number of shareholders such that the sum of parts will be much greater than the whole. Reliance Retail is also expected to eventually demerge, therefore shareholders in a holding company structure are always bound to benefit. Although, the stock price may experience some quarters of pain but over the long term 2-3 years horizon shareholders will certainly benefit." Shares of RIL ended the intraday trade at Rs 1,442.55, down 16.85 points, or 1.15 per cent from previous close on NSE. On Sunday, Reliance Jio, the telecom arm of RIL, announced an investment worth Rs 6,598.38 crore by General Atlantic. Earlier, Jio announced a deal with Silver Lake and Vista Equity Partners worth Rs 5,656 crore and Rs 11,367 crore, respectively. It had also announced Rs 43,574 crore deal with social media firm Facebook. Also read: India's GDP to contract 45% in June quarter, stimulus package 'strikingly smaller': Goldman Sachs Also read: Coronavirus lockdown 4.0: What activities will be allowed in red zones from today?

the rights issue of Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) will open on may 20 and close on June 3. the company has been offering one share for every 15 held at a discount of 14.8%. analysts see the rights issue as an attempt by the company to cut its debt. the last time the firm tapped the public for funds was in 1991 via convertible debentures.

Negative

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/earnings/tata-steel-expects-recovery-in-the-second-half-of-the-fiscal/articleshow/76712545.cms

Weak demand and high debt could put severe pressure on Tata Steel ’s balance sheet in the coming quarters. Although the company’s March quarter performance was better than the street’s expectations, the June and the September quarter are expected to be hit by weak demand. The company has started to conserve cash by deferring payment, squeezing expenses and curtailing capital expenditure, said the management on the call with the analysts.“Based on an initial assessment, the outlook for the UK operation is expected to be adversely impacted with respect to its ability to continue as a going concern and meet its liquidity requirements,” said the company in its press release.A sharp fall in the operating margin before depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) has escalated the company’s debt burden. EBITDA fell by 44% to Rs 17,060 crore in FY20 thereby pushing debt-EBITDA ratio to six. This may worsen in the current fiscal given the possibility of sharp fall in profits.Given the subdued domestic demand, the company has increased exports, which fetch lower margin. According to the management, exports will be 50% of the total revenue in the first quarter of the current fiscal and 30% in the second quarter and eventually fall to 10-15% once the domestic demand improves. Export margins are lower compared with the domestic business given minimum import prices (MIP) in India. Most of the export orders are from China and South East Asia said the company. Realizations in these markets are not as strong.The company expects a 16% drop in the European demand for FY21. As a result, the impact on the European business is even higher. The company is in talks with the UK and Netherland governments to seek support.In the March quarter, production improved by 5% to 7.4 million tonnes but deliveries fell by 11% to 6.5 million tonnes. Lower deliveries and realizations resulted in a 20% decline in revenues at Rs 33,770 crore. The management expects sales volume for FY21 to remain the same as in FY20 with things picking up from the second half of the current fiscal.The stock has lost nearly 36% over the past year but its valuation still remains elevated. At Tuesday’s closing stock price of Rs 326.7 on the BSE, the company’s enterprise value (EV) relative to EBITDA was at a five-year high of eight.

the company's March quarter performance was better than the street's expectations. the June and the September quarter are expected to be hit by weak demand. sharp fall in the operating margin before depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) has escalated the company's debt burden. the company expects a 16% drop in the european demand for FY21.

Negative

https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/banking-finance/repayment-moratorium-to-postpone-asset-quality-stress-recognition-by-1-2-quarters-icra/1917463/

Rating agency Icra on Thursday said that the three-month moratorium on repayments provided by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) would postpone recognition of asset quality stress by 1-2 quarters. The agency said lenders with higher share of asset classes such as microfinance, commercial vehicles and MSMEs will be more vulnerable, while those with exposure towards asset classes like gold loans and salaried housing will be impacted less. “Even in a scenario where the banks and non-banks are able to absorb such an increase in credit provisions through their P&Ls and prevent the capital erosion, the level of stressed assets in relation to the core equity is expected to increase, thereby weakening their solvency profile,” said Karthik Srinivasan, group head, financial sector ratings, Icra. The rating agency expected the GDP growth to slow down to 2% during FY21, with the growth in Q1FY21 coming in at -4.5%. Following the recent cut in policy rates by the RBI and small savings rates by the government, Icra said banks are expected to cut their one-year deposit rates by about 50-70 basis points (bps) during FY21. Some private banks and NBFCs will continue to face elevated funding costs amid higher risk aversion from the investors, it noted. For the NBFCs, high reliance on debt market borrowings may pose challenges as a moratorium may not be available on these borrowings. The ability to have diversified funding sources, including access to debt capital markets, will remain as a key differentiator for non-banks, Icra said. “Amid funding challenges, higher on-balance sheet liquidity and uncertainty on asset quality, private lenders are likely to remain cautious on fresh disbursements, whereas the public sector lenders may be constrained by their capital position and merger-induced bottlenecks.” Icra said, adding that with low credit growth, likely rise in credit costs and excess liquidity, the profitability of financial entities to be adversely affected by 50-90 bps during FY21.

Icra says the three-month moratorium on repayments by the RBI will postpone recognition of asset quality stress by 1-2 quarters. the rating agency expects the GDP growth to slow down to 2% during FY21. banks are expected to cut their one-year deposit rates by about 50-70 basis points (bps) during FY21. some private banks and NBFCs will continue to face elevated funding costs amid higher risk aversion from the investors.

Negative

https://www.businesstoday.in/sectors/auto/dealers-body-claims-covid-19-aftermath-may-result-in-more-job-losses-than-auto-slowdown/story/406887.html

Automobile dealers' body FADA fears that the coronavirus pandemic could result in job losses in dealerships which could be worse than what was experienced last year when over two lakh jobs were lost due to a prolonged slowdown in the automobile industry, according to a top federation official. The Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA), however, said a clear picture will emerge only after the end of this month when it will roll out a survey to understand how its dealer members are planning with regards to reduction of outlets and manpower. When asked if there is a fear that there could be bigger job losses in dealerships due to the COVID-19 impact than 2019 when the automotive industry was hit by a prolonged slowdown, FADA President Ashish Harsharaj Kale told : "Yes, if demand doesn't pick up. Obviously." Between May and July last year, the automobiles dealerships across the country shed around 2 lakh jobs to tide over the impact of an unprecedented sales slump. Kale, however, said, "To really understand the indication of what kind of job losses we are staring at (due to COVID-19), it will only be (possible) after this month. April and May have been completely under lockdown. You can't really gauge what is the demand situation (now)." He further said a clear picture is expected to emerge only at the end of this month in terms of how the pandemic has affected the economy, which market segment has been hit more -- urban or rural or a combination of both and whether it is the upper class or the middle class who have been hit harder. "We will get clarity only in June on what kind of demand situation is there for different kinds of vehicle categories. Only towards the end of June we will be rolling out a new survey to understand what kind of changes dealers are working with regarding reduction of outlets and manpower reduction," Kale said. He, however, asserted cutting jobs is the last option that automobile dealers resort to. "It is not easy for us to let go of our manpower as that is the most valuable resource. We train them over many years and they gradually rise through in our organisations. That is the last call we take. Inventory would be the first call we take and other variables expenses, manpower would be the last," Kale asserted. Therefore, he said, "It will be at least after a month of routine business that we see, based on which we will take a call. If demand doesn't pick up, there will be a reduction of manpower." When asked if there has been closure of any dealerships due to the coronavirus-induced lockdown, he replied in the negative. "There has been no closure of dealerships as yet. In the dealership business, as we are traders, the decisions are not so sudden. For us, one good thing is that the service business is slowly coming back. A dealer will not take a call so soon on whether he wants to exit his business or if he wants to survive based on the current demand and financials," Kale said. He further said, "We will get those indications in July. Manpower reduction, we will know by June-end because each and every dealer will assess the demand situation, how does he forsees what are the problems and he is facing and take a call." Also Read: Coronavirus update: Loss of smell and taste added as likely symptoms for COVID-19 Also Read: Jio Platforms to raise Rs 4,547 crore from TPG; ninth investment in past seven weeks

coronavirus pandemic could lead to job losses in dealerships, says federation official. a clear picture will emerge only after the end of this month, says president. a survey will be launched to understand how dealers are planning to reduce outlets and manpower. between may and July last year, dealerships shed around 2 lakh jobs. a spokesman for the federation says the pandemic is a "serious threat"

Negative

https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/liquidity-pressures-after-covid-19-disruption-will-remain-high-for-nbfcs-rbi-study/story/406645.html

The coronavirus-induced lockdown has led to worsening financing conditions for non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), especially those that lower-rated and private sector ones. As per an estimate, around Rs 1.08 lakh crore worth of borrowings of NBFCs will mature in the next three months, which will put a lot of strain on them. "There are near-term scheduled redemptions of commercial papers and corporate bonds issued by NBFCs. To a certain extent, these could be bridged through increased bank borrowing or group support by some NBFCs. However, given the current financing conditions and developments in the mutual fund sector, the possibility of liquidity pressures remaining elevated for some of these NBFCs, especially those with high dependencies on market borrowing, cannot be ruled out," an RBI study has stated. Regulatory or liquidity measures taken by the Reserve Bank have had a salutary impact on financial markets, it said, adding that stress was still visible in certain areas. The emerging developments indicate the need for policy interventions, which go beyond liquidity related measures to credit-related ones, it maintained. The RBI study also showed that there was a need for ensuring the flow of credit to NBFCs with "concrete credit backstop" to address the risk aversion in the system. It believed the recent government measures for NBFCs, such as the special liquidity scheme and the partial credit guarantee scheme were expected to improve the market financing conditions for the sector. The NBFC sector is already struggling with liquidity issues since 2018. The IL&FS related developments in 2018 brought the sector under greater market discipline and the market borrowing costs increased for entities, especially those with perceived asset-liability mismatch issues or asset quality concerns. Now the recent COVID-19 related disruptions and the developments in the mutual fund sector, which have emerged as one of the major lenders to the NBFC sector, have further impacted the market their financing conditions, it said. The study also assessed the households' liabilities and found that they peaked in the March quarter of FY20, indicating a rise in the hardships owing to the coronavirus crisis. "Households' gross financial liabilities turned negative in Q12019-20 owing mainly to a contraction in borrowings from commercial banks, but picked up thereafter and peaked in Q42019-20, reflecting apart from the seasonal uptick, higher borrowings induced by COVID-19 related hardships" showed the RBI study. Also read: Coronavirus impact: Households' borrowings peaked in March quarter, says RBI

coronavirus lockdown has worsened financing conditions for non-banking financial companies. around Rs 1.08 lakh crore worth of borrowings of NBFCs will mature in the next three months. Regulatory or liquidity measures taken by the Reserve Bank have had a salutary impact on financial markets. a study assessed the households' liabilities and found that they peaked in the March quarter of FY20.

Negative

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/4-5-gdp-growth-rate-unacceptable-worrisome-manmohan-singh-4687151.html

Former prime minister Manmohan Singh said on November 29 the GDP growth rate of 4.5 per cent was unacceptable and worrisome, and urged his successor Narendra Modi to set aside "deep-rooted suspicion" of society and nurse India back to harmonious, mutually trustworthy society that can help the economy soar. Delivering his valedictory address at a national conclave on economy, Singh said mutual trust is the bedrock of societal transactions fostering economic growth, but "our social fabric of trust, confidence is now torn and ruptured". He said the "toxic combination of deep distrust, pervasive fear and a sense of hopelessness in our society" is stifling economic activity and growth.

former prime minister says 4.5 per cent growth rate is unacceptable. he urges his successor to nurse India back to harmonious, mutually trustworthy society. he says distrust, fear and a sense of hopelessness in society is stifling economic activity. he says the "toxic combination of deep distrust, pervasive fear and a sense of hopelessness"

Negative

https://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/probe-underway-in-63-moons-complaint-over-abuse-of-official-powers-against-p-chidambaram-cbi-tells-bombay-hc/2050588/

The CBI told the Bombay High Court on Monday that it was conducting preliminary enquiry into the complaint filed by 63 moons technologies limited against former Union finance minister P Chidambaram and two other bureaucrats alleging abuse of official powers. CBI advocate Hiten Venegavkar told a division bench of Justices S S Jadhav and N J Jamadar that since the allegations pertain to the year 2012-2013, the agency has to recover relevant documents which will take some time. The court was hearing a petition filed by the Jignesh Shah-promoted company, earlier known as Financial Technologies Ltd, questioning the ‘delayed’ action by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) against senior Congress leader Chidambaram and bureaucrats K P Krishnan and Ramesh Abhishek. Abhishek was chairman of the Forward Markets Commission and Krishnan was an additional secretary and joint secretary in the Ministry of Finance when Chidambaram was the finance minister. “We (CBI) are conducting preliminary enquiry. Since the case dates back to the year 2012 and 2013, we need to apply our mind and verify the allegations levelled and recover all relevant documents,” Venegavkar said. He said the complainant (63 moons technologies) was summoned by the CBI for recording of statement and the firm was asked to submit further evidence in support of its allegations. “However, till date CBI has not received any further evidence or documents from the petitioner company,” Venegavkar said. Advocate Aabad Ponda, appearing for 63 moons technologies, refuted this argument and said all relevant documents have already been submitted to the CBI. “A preliminary enquiry, as per provisions of the Prevention of Corruption Act, has to be completed within a period of four months. In this case, the preliminary enquiry as initiated in February. We (petitioner) moved the high court in July,” Ponda argued. The bench directed the CBI to file an affidavit stating details of their enquiry and posted the plea for further hearing on August 13. On February 15, 2019, 63 moons technologies filed a complaint with the CBI, seeking that a case be registered against the three for allegedly abusing their official positions and causing damage to the company when the multi-crore payment default scam at the National Spot Exchange Limited (MSEL) came to light. On June 20, 2019, the company filed a petition in the high court, seeking a direction to the CBI to register a FIR. In August 2019, the CBI informed the court that after verification of the complaint, a preliminary enquiry (PE) will be initiated. The petition said in March 2020, the company representatives were summoned by the CBI to record their statement as the preliminary enquiry was initiated. “Four months have lapsed since then and there has been no further communication from the CBI and the agency has not registered FIR too,” the petition filed on July 4 said. The company has accused Chidambaram and the other two of taking malicious and malafide action against it when the NSEL scam came to light in 2012-13.

63 moons technologies limited filed complaint against former finance minister and two bureaucrats alleging abuse of official powers. court was hearing petition by company questioned 'delayed' action by the central bureau of investigation (CBI) against senior Congress leader Chidambaram and bureaucrats K P Krishnan and Ramesh Abhishek.

Negative

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/brokerages-upgrade-these-15-stocks-to-buy-expect-11-75-returns-in-a-year-5320421.html

live bse live nse live Volume Todays L/H More × The market has not seen any strong move on either side for last one-and-half-month after showing a recovery in April. The rising cases of new infections, worries over economic and earnings growth due to lockdown, and increasing tensions between US and China continued to worry the market participants. On the other hand, stable oil prices, fiscal & liquidity measures by RBI and the government, and hope of further opening up of economy saved the market from completely losing ground. Experts feel the market will remain rangebound in coming months unless there is decline in new infections and US-China trade tensions will continue to weigh on global sentiment. "Recently the stimulus package of Rs 20 lakh crore gave an emotional uplift to the stock market, however, we believe the Indian stock market will follow the global trend in the medium term," Amit Jain of Ashika Wealth Advisors told Moneycontrol. This war between USA & China may intensify further & may take ugly shape going forward, which may change World Power Equation post-COVID-19 era, he feels. Ajay Bodke, CEO & Chief Portfolio Manager (PMS) at Prabhudas Lilladher said in the wake of US and China trade war, markets would be torn between two contrasting sentiments - "Opening up of the economy trade" versus "Global trade wars disrupting economic growth & heightened risk aversion trade". But experts advised investors to continue to pick quality stocks as lot of them are still available at cheap valuations given their strong pedigree and attractive valuations. "The COVID-19 hit has generated great opportunities for everyone to invest in quality business models at attractive valuations. This opportunity is being presented to investors after 12 long years and should not be missed. Investors should focus on investing in right Economy, right Sector, right Business models & rightly compliant companies," Amit Jain said. Here are top 15 stocks which got upgraded to buy by brokerage houses in the last one month, expect 11-75% returns in a year: Orient Cement "Orient Cement currently trades at a replacement cost of Rs 220 crore/mt sharply lower due to the reaction to the current weakness followed by the COVID-19 pandemic which we feel is overdone. We assign replacement cost of Rs 300 crore/mt March 2022E capacities to arrive at a fair value of Rs 71/sh (earlier Rs 72/sh)," said Centrum Broking. "The discount is still higher (replacement cost of Rs 750 crore/mt) due to risk of regional concentration. New capacity addition is on hold helping Orient Cement to shape its balance sheet better. At our target price the stocks trade at an EV/EBITDA of 5.2x FY22 earnings. We have revised our add rating and upgrade the stock to buy," it added. Quess Corp "The stock corrected almost around 75 percent from pre-COVID-19 levels on concerns around: a) the severe impact on general staffing and collections, b) liquidity position, and c) the potential legal liabilities in outcome-based businesses, said Motilal Oswal. "However, given a) industry concerns around manpower shortages / sharp wage increases and b) government orders forbidding lay-offs, we understand the General Staffing segment has not witnessed any material dislocation thus far," the brokerage added. Accordingly, Motilal Oswal believes the above-mentioned concerns are exaggerated. "A material impact is unlikely going forward as the economy goes into a phased reopening and enterprises try to dodge the supply-side disruption." Ministry of Finance recently announced that 44 central labour laws are being subsumed into four uniform codes. Reduced labour market rigidity should increase the formality of the workforce, in turn driving demand for flexi staffing. Motilal Oswal expects Quess / TeamLease / SIS Security to be the biggest long-term beneficiaries of these reforms. In the base case, the brokerage expects 13/15 percent revenue/EPS CAGR over FY20–22E. "Using residual income approach, we arrive at a target price of Rs 280. Encouraging efforts by the new management to address certain investor concerns (e.g., capital allocation and governance) would be a key re-rating driver." Vedanta "Vedanta has corrected over 50 percent from its 52-week high, in line with the correction in other metal stocks due to the impact of COVID-19. However, with the recovery in China in nascent stages, we believe commodities are passing through trough pricing," Emkay Global said. The brokerage feels the pandemic will lead to a reduction in both demand and prices for most of the commodities in FY21; however, it expects a revival in FY22 and normalization of demand in FY23, driven by fiscal stimulus implemented by most of the large economies globally. The announcement of delisting comes at cyclical lows, said Emkay which believes at a significant discount to the fair value, especially when oil, zinc, aluminum, lead all have taken a beating due to the pandemic and greenshoots of recovery have started emerging in China. The brokerage upgraded to buy from sell with a target of Rs 112 (Rs 134 earlier) based on SoTP. Power Grid Corporation JM Financial upgraded Power Grid to buy while maintaining target of Rs 200 and estimates given the sharp correction to prices without any changes in the stock’s core fundamentals. "Despite a slower capex driven deceleration in profit growth (from 25 percent past to 9 percent in future), we find Power Grid earnings to be most resilient to demand slowdown. Additionally PGCIL does not have any overhangs of ESG or threat of renewables given all power (regardless of source of generation) has to be transmitted," said the brokerage. Alembic Pharma Yes Securities upgraded Alembic Pharma to a conviction buy with a revised price target of Rs 1,100, the highest on the street, as it raised multiple to 25x FY22. "We reckon market would reward stocks with visibility of revenues and profits and such companies would trade at a wide premium to sector averages. This is evident in pharma where, despite recent rally, few stocks still command a premium to sector valuation as earnings visibility remains robust." "Alembic trades at a discount to peers like Torrent and Dr Reddy's Labs even as earnings comfort in the medium term remains high. Company is set to monetize Rs20bn worth of capex over next 3 years as filings commence from new facilities. This would drive a 20 percent CAGR surge in ex-Sartans US revenues to touch $450 million in FY24," said the brokerage. "Moreover, domestic business has bottomed out in FY20 with our confidence based on robust performance in Q4 to end FY20 on a strong note. While we remain cognizant that gross margins would give up recent gain as Sartans opportunity recede, EBIDTA would pick up pace especially beyond FY22, as filings gain scale and approval," it added. Birla Corporation "Birla Corporation reported a healthy Q4FY20 performance. While the ongoing expansion may increase the debt burden in the medium term, the company’s healthy asset utilisations, healthy margin profile remain key positives, which will help the company to ride this medium term challenges," said ICICI Direct which upgraded the stock to buy with a revised target price of Rs 610 per share. Mahanagar Gas Motilal Oswal upgraded Mahanagar Gas to buy considering its cheap valuations (at Rs 1,100 valuing it in line with global peers at 16x FY22E EPS). "The company trades at over 50 percent discount to IGL's P/E, P/B and EV/EBIDTA (despite enjoying the highest EBITDA/scm), offering the highest dividend yield among CGDs at around 2.5-2.8 percent. All of these attributes make Mahanagar Gas an attractive value-play in the CGD space." Despite being categorized as CGDs, the model of operation differs significantly among the three incumbents, i.e. the industrially inclined - GUJGA (with over 75 percent of PNG-Ind volumes) and CNG inclined – Indraprastha Gas and Mahanagar (with over 75 percent of CNG volumes), said the brokerage, adding also, while Gujarat Gas has potential volume triggers from the NGT’s recent directive, IGL and Mahanagar Gas play a limited role in the same. Mahindra CIE Automotive ICICI Direct feels the Mahindra CIE Automotive's (MCI) current market price bakes in much of the negatives and present valuations look attractive from a medium to long term standpoint. Accordingly, the brokerage house upgraded MCI to buy with a revised target price of Rs 100, valuing it at 5.5x CY21E EV/EBITDA (implied 10x P/E of CY21E EPS). "The company’s track record of consistent CFO and FCF generation combined with strong MNC parentage and purchase of additional 0.03 percent stake by parent group CIE lend us additional comfort in our stance," it said. Escorts Escorts is a prominent tractor player domestically with market share in excess of 11 percent. The company’s brand of tractors is particularly strong in the northern as well as the eastern belt of India. With rural India relatively less impacted due to Covid-19, record food-grain procurement by government agencies as well as expectation of normal monsoon 2020, we expect the tractor industry to outperform the larger automobile space in FY21 with Escorts a key beneficiary, ICICI Direct feels. On the balance sheet front, Escorts is a net cash company thereby holding surplus cash on books (around Rs 1,000 crore as of FY20) and also realises healthy return ratios matrix (RoCE at around 20 percent in FY20), thereby making a compelling case for an upgrade to buy, with a target of Rs 1,020 per share, said the brokerage house. Astral Poly Technik 'Despite a substantial volume loss witnessed in March 2020 due to nationwide lockdown, Astral Poly Technik is possibly witnessing a phase of meteoric rise in its margin trajectory. The all-time high Q4FY20 EBIDTA margin, which the management clarified was without any one-offs, is largely attributed to strong gross margin expansion in both the product segments – which were led by the company’s backward integration drive, decentralisation efforts and increasing share of VAPs," ICICI Direct said. "Besides the rising margin trajectory, the sustained focus on strengthening the balance sheet and likelihood of the company being one of the biggest beneficiaries of market share gains in the plumbing pipe segment, Astra’s recovery in earnings could be much earlier than anticipated," said the brokerage which upgraded the stock to buy (from add) with a revised target price of Rs 950 (earlier: Rs 1,096). Gabriel India Gabriel India (GIL) reported a relatively healthy set of Q4FY20 numbers. ICICI Direct expects sales, EBITDA, PAT to grow at a CAGR of -0.7 percent, 3.5 percent, -2.8 percent, respectively, over FY20P-22. The brokerage likes GIL for its domestic-oriented, debt-free, capital efficient business model (double digit return ratios) and a track record of strong CFO and FCF generation (present CFO yield around 10 percent). GIL's 2-W slant is an added positive in present times, although reduction on OEM reliance would substantially bolster structural strength, it said. Post the recent sharp price correction, the brokerage believes GIL offers an attractive risk-reward play. Thus, it upgraded the stock to buy, valuing it at Rs 85. Eicher Motors Eicher Motors (EML) is the undisputed leader in the domestic premium motorcycle (>250 cc) segment through its established Royal Enfield (RE) franchise that has a strong product portfolio comprising popular models such as Classic, Bullet and Himalayan. "The stock price of EML, however, saw a sharp fall in recent months tracking expectations of further pressures to be exerted on income levels & consequent purchasing power in the COVID-19 aftermath," said ICICI Direct which feels valuations have climbed down adequately, with the company now trading at 20x FY22E EPS against average two year forward P/E multiple of around 30x over last five years. The brokerage feels EML presents an attractive risk-reward opportunity post steep price correction; with its undiminished brand loyalty seen acting as a catalyst for an eventual recovery once pandemic effects subside. "We value EML on SOTP basis (24x P/E on FY22E RE EPS, 15x FY22E VECV EPS) to arrive at a target price of Rs 17,150 and upgrade the stock from hold to buy." Ambuja Cements JM Financial valued Ambuja Cements on the basis of SOTP valuation (based on replacement cost), valuing the standalone business at a replacement cost of Rs 750 crore per million tonnes and arriving at a target price of Rs 215 (Rs200 earlier). Ambuja Cements' clinker capacity addition will address its current clinker shortage issues, said the brokerage which expects savings from better operating leverage (around Rs 50 per tonne) following capacity utilisation improvement. "The loss of incentives (from Q1CY20) will be offset by new capacity commissioning in around Q1CY21. Additionally, cost savings measures with captive coal block and new railway siding in Rajasthan will only boost/maintain earnings (even in challenging times). Healthy balance sheet (cash of Rs 9,000 crore CY21E) and debt free status only adds comfort," said JM Financial which upgraded the stock to buy from add rating earlier. HCL Technologies HCL Tech reported a healthy quarter (Q4FY20) from the perspective of margin expansion, said ICICI Direct which expects the company to see near term revenue and margin pressure led by COVID-19 pandemic. "However, in the long-term, considering opportunities in cloud consumption, cyber security, automation, app modernisation, we remain optimistic on its revenue trajectory. Additionally, easing of seasonality pressure in the products & platforms business within IBM driven by renewals would ensure growth," said the brokerage. "In addition, HCL Tech is also looking at captives, acquisition and vendor consolidation as revenue drivers, going forward. Further, we expect various cost rationalisation measures of the company to bear fruit in FY22E. This, coupled with reasonable valuation of 11x, prompt us to upgrade the stock to buy recommendation with a target price of Rs 585 per share," it added. Maruti Suzuki HDFC Securities upgraded Maruti Suzuki to a buy with a target of Rs 5,810 as it believes that the OEM is expected to gain market share in the current downturn, given its dominant position in the entry level/compact car segment, where the company has a market share of 65 percent (versus 51 percent overall). "Maruti will benefit from its gasoline driven portfolio as the breakeven for diesel vehicles has further increased after the introduction of BSVI variants. As the company has a robust balance sheet, with cash reserves of around Rs 40,000 crore (around 25 percent of market cap), we expect the industry leader to withstand the downturn due to its scale and robust balance sheet," said the brokerage. Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment expert on Moneycontrol.com are his own and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

market has not seen any strong move on either side for last one-and-half-month. rising cases of new infections, worries over economic and earnings growth continued to worry the market participants. stable oil prices, fiscal & liquidity measures by RBI and the government saved the market from completely losing ground. experts feel the market will remain rangebound in coming months unless there is decline in new infections.

Negative

https://www.businesstoday.in/sectors/it/why-it-firms-are-not-worried-about-us-suspension-of-h1-b-visas/story/407791.html

US President Donald Trump in his latest executive order, a follow-up of the earlier April order intended to protect American jobs, has suspended the entry of several categories of visa holders including H1B and L which most IT firms apply for to send their workforce to the United States. Though the proclamation has a sunset clause at the end of the year (December 31), it also states that the effect of the order may be continued if found to be necessary. The order suspends and limits the entry of 'aliens' into the US, to those who are outside the country and also those seeking visas at the time of the order being passed. The Indian IT industry body National Association of Software and Service Companies (NASSCOM) in its statement said that the new proclamation which imposed new conditions for immigration was misguided and harmful to the US economy. "American workers are facing greater challenges than they had in years, but that does not mean that talent shortages do not continue to exist," it stated. Further, even at the current unemployment rates, an analysis of the Bureau of Labour Statistics' Current Population Survey by the National Foundation for American Progress found that the unemployment rate for computer professionals actually went down from 3 per cent in January 2020 to 2.8 per cent in April 2020. New York-based immigration attorney, Anand G. Sinha , Founder & Principal Attorney at Anand Sinha Law, P.C says the biggest concern for IT companies is not whether they could hire or retain talent, but to find the right talent in the US. "It takes time to grow homegrown talent," he says. While the Indian IT firms have been making steady investments in localisation efforts, over the past two years the increased H-1B rejections, local hiring, higher sub-contracting and lower onsite utilisation have also increased the onsite cost structure. For companies in the US, however, the worrying factor is not just talent but also the subsequent financial implications that they have to bear for non-availability of the same. A report by HDFC Securities dated March 18 stated that the rise in H-1B wages in last two years was at 7.8 per cent CAGR due to higher H-1B rejections and shortage of talent trained on newer technologies. According to an analysis by the brokerage, every 1 per cent increase in US cost has -27bps impact on operating margins of IT firms . The report further noted that even though IT firms aim at higher localisation and on-site delivery centres, the H1B applications have shifted to lower cost destinations like Texas, Virginia, Florida, and Connecticut from high cost destinations like California, Washington, New York and New Jersey. H-1B COUNT FOR FY19 (IT SERVICES) However, with the pandemic bringing huge changes to delivery and sales at IT companies, the uncertainty around travel for this year has already been factored in. A former executive of a Bengaluru-based listed mid-tier IT firm, who did not wish to be named, said that in such unprecedented times when clients are renegotiating prices, cost is of paramount importance . "Whether off-shoring or distributed delivery models, clients now will be more than open to explore all options. It's about getting work done," he said.

the order suspends entry of several categories of visa holders. it also limits entry of 'aliens' into the us, to those who are outside the country. the proclamation has a sunset clause at the end of the year. the biggest concern for companies is to find the right talent in the us. a report by the brokerage says every 1 per cent increase in US cost has -27bps impact on operating margins.

Negative

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/conflict-of-interest-between-sbi-sbi-capital-markets-catches-rbi-eye/articleshow/63757235.cms

Mumbai: The Reserve Bank of India ( RBI ) has pointed out a ‘conflict of interest’ between State Bank of India (SBI), the country’s largest lender, and its subsidiary, SBI Capital Markets SBI Capital is a leading player in syndication of big-ticket loans for corporate India and rejigging of debt amid rising stress. The regulator has conveyed its view to SBI, which is planning to recast the operations of the bank’s investment banking arm.The exercise could lead to hiving off the cash-spinning loan syndication division of SBI Capital Markets, offering a slice of equity in the entity to foreign investors, two senior bankers told ET.According to senior officials in the banking industry, the regulator’s attention was drawn to the debt syndication division by some of the small- and medium- sized banks which told the government that part of today’s ‘problem loans’ owes its origin to advances sanctioned on the basis of advice from SBI Capital Markets.SBI officials, however, strongly refute the allegation, saying that no bank can blame the SBI group as each lender should and does conduct respective due diligence before lending.When contacted, SBI chairman Rajnish Kumar said, “We are looking at revamping SBI Caps in a big way. Details are being worked out.”“We may sell part of equity stake and restructure the debt syndication cell of SBI Caps,” the SBI chairman added.He declined to share details as the board is yet to approve a resolution on the matter.SBI is likely to merge the debt syndication cell of SBI Caps with the relevant department in the parent bank. Besides a potential regulatory conflict, RBI has also pointed out a likely duplication of work between the main bank and the subsidiary. “Since there are cases where SBI Caps has advised on loan restructuring for corporates which are direct borrowers of SBI, a conflict of interest cannot be ruled out. So, for argument’s sake it is possible that the I-bank may be driven by the bank’s interest rather than by an independent view,” said a senior official of a stress asset firm.Many banks’ confidence in SBI Capital was understood to have been shaken when they took a knock following the bankruptcy of Kingfisher Airlines. The SBI arm was the advisor in restructuring of the troubled airline’s debts . “There have been instances when SBI Caps was engaged as adviser in syndication of loan and later hired to restructure debt when the borrower failed to repay,” said a banker.Over the past few months, RBI and the government have been scanning the overall eco-system in addressing the problem of non-performing assets ( NPAs or sticky loans). They have studied the functioning and role of rating agencies, registered valuers, large chartered accountants and management consultants including Big4 firms besides banks.According to another banker, many lenders were drawn by the SBI brand — often SBI agreed to lend when SBI Capital was the syndicator, and when SBI agreed to lend other banks too joined a consortium to bag a slice of action in a sluggish corporate loan market.SBI Capital’s exit from loan syndication move would be cheered by many loan arrangers and restructuring advisers vying for business in a competitive market where fee on a deal is 1-2%.

RBI points out 'conflict of interest' between state bank and subsidiary. regulator has conveyed view to recast operations of investment banking arm. exercise could lead to hiving off cash-spinning loan syndication division. officials strongly refute allegation, saying no bank can blame group. sBI is likely to merge debt syndication cell with relevant department in parent bank.

Negative

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/oil-falls-in-second-straight-session-as-virus-cools-demand-5470131.html

Oil prices fell for a second straight session on Monday as coronavirus cases rose in the United States and other places, leading countries to resume partial lockdowns that could hurt fuel demand. Brent crude dropped 66 cents, or 1.6%, to $40.36 a barrel by 1150 GMT while U.S. crude was at $37.86, down 63 cents, or 1.6%. Brent crude is set to end June with three consecutive monthly gains as OPEC+ supply cuts and as oil demand improved after countries across the globe eased lockdown measures. However, global coronavirus cases exceeded 10 million on Sunday as India and Brazil battled outbreaks of over 10,000 cases daily. New outbreaks are reported in countries including China, New Zealand and Australia, prompting governments to impose restrictions again. "The market continues to fret about the recovery in demand as authorities reviewed reopening strategies," ANZ analysts said, referring to the three most populous U.S. states - Texas, Florida and California. COVID-19 Vaccine Frequently Asked Questions View more How does a vaccine work? A vaccine works by mimicking a natural infection. A vaccine not only induces immune response to protect people from any future COVID-19 infection, but also helps quickly build herd immunity to put an end to the pandemic. Herd immunity occurs when a sufficient percentage of a population becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely. The good news is that SARS-CoV-2 virus has been fairly stable, which increases the viability of a vaccine. How many types of vaccines are there? There are broadly four types of vaccine — one, a vaccine based on the whole virus (this could be either inactivated, or an attenuated [weakened] virus vaccine); two, a non-replicating viral vector vaccine that uses a benign virus as vector that carries the antigen of SARS-CoV; three, nucleic-acid vaccines that have genetic material like DNA and RNA of antigens like spike protein given to a person, helping human cells decode genetic material and produce the vaccine; and four, protein subunit vaccine wherein the recombinant proteins of SARS-COV-2 along with an adjuvant (booster) is given as a vaccine. What does it take to develop a vaccine of this kind? Vaccine development is a long, complex process. Unlike drugs that are given to people with a diseased, vaccines are given to healthy people and also vulnerable sections such as children, pregnant women and the elderly. So rigorous tests are compulsory. History says that the fastest time it took to develop a vaccine is five years, but it usually takes double or sometimes triple that time. View more Show Despite efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies including Russia to reduce supplies, crude inventories in the United States, the world's largest oil producer and consumer, have hit all-time highs. "There is also a risk that gains in prices recently could see some U.S. shale producers restart wells," ANZ said. Even as higher oil prices prompt some producers to resume drilling, the number of operating oil and natural gas rigs dropped to a record low last week. U.S. shale oil pioneer Chesapeake Energy Corp filed for bankruptcy protection on Sunday as it bowed to heavy debts and the impact of coronavirus outbreak on energy markets.

coronavirus cases rise in the united states and other places. countries resume partial lockdowns that could hurt fuel demand. global coronavirus cases exceed 10 million on Sunday. a vaccine works by mimicking a natural infection. a vaccine helps quickly build herd immunity to put an end to the pandemic. a vaccine works by mimicking a natural infection.

Negative

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/real-estate/covid-19-impact-housing-sales-fall-79-in-april-june-quarter-5609471.html

With most cities in either a partial or full lockdown due to coronavirus, new launches dipped by 81 percent and housing sales by 79 percent in the second quarter this calendar. Only 19,038 units were sold during April-June this year compared to 92,764 units in Q2 2019, according to PropTiger. Affordable housing continued to dominate the real estate sector accounting for a 44 percent share of all sales, PropTiger said in its report Real Insight Residential Q2 2020. Sales share of branded developers increased, as per the report. New launches also decreased significantly during this period as developers remained cautious with commercial activity across sectors slowing down. Launches decreased 81 percent during the quarter ending June 30 to 12,564 units from 65,240 units last year. The first half of this calendar year showed a similar decline with a 65 percent dip in new launches. Bengaluru witnessed the maximum supply of new launches in this quarter, the report stated. COVID-19 Vaccine Frequently Asked Questions View more How does a vaccine work? A vaccine works by mimicking a natural infection. A vaccine not only induces immune response to protect people from any future COVID-19 infection, but also helps quickly build herd immunity to put an end to the pandemic. Herd immunity occurs when a sufficient percentage of a population becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely. The good news is that SARS-CoV-2 virus has been fairly stable, which increases the viability of a vaccine. How many types of vaccines are there? There are broadly four types of vaccine — one, a vaccine based on the whole virus (this could be either inactivated, or an attenuated [weakened] virus vaccine); two, a non-replicating viral vector vaccine that uses a benign virus as vector that carries the antigen of SARS-CoV; three, nucleic-acid vaccines that have genetic material like DNA and RNA of antigens like spike protein given to a person, helping human cells decode genetic material and produce the vaccine; and four, protein subunit vaccine wherein the recombinant proteins of SARS-COV-2 along with an adjuvant (booster) is given as a vaccine. What does it take to develop a vaccine of this kind? Vaccine development is a long, complex process. Unlike drugs that are given to people with a diseased, vaccines are given to healthy people and also vulnerable sections such as children, pregnant women and the elderly. So rigorous tests are compulsory. History says that the fastest time it took to develop a vaccine is five years, but it usually takes double or sometimes triple that time. View more Show New launches in Mumbai were down by 91 percent from 21,250 in Q2 2019 to 1,820 this year. New launches in Delhi-NCR decreased by 75 percent to 2,010 this year from 7,920 in 2019. New launches in Bengaluru were down 52 percent to 3,270 this year from 6,840 last year. At least 61 percent new launches were in the less than Rs 75 lakh category, as per the report. Inventory declines; overhang increases When compared to the levels seen during the same quarter last year, the unsold stock also declined 13 percent in the eight cities, primarily on account of a fall in new launches. As on June 30, 2020, developers had an inventory of 738,335 units across these markets. At the end of Q2 2019, the unsold stock stood at 846,460 units. At 56 percent, the Mumbai and Pune markets together contributed the highest share to this stock of unsold homes, followed by NCR (15 percent) and Bengaluru (10 percent). Inventory overhang, however, increased to 35 months as against 28 months last year. Inventory overhang is the time developers take to sell off the unsold stock keeping in view the current sales velocity. At 53 months, the inventory overhang was the highest in the NCR market. PropTiger also pointed out that nearly 20 percent of the unsold inventory is in the ready-to-move-in category. Prices remain stagnant Due to the strain from the demand side, price growth in India’s prime residential markets remained largely muted, with the majority of cities showing an annual growth between 1-3 percent in the past year. Housing markets of Hyderabad and Ahmedabad, however, showed comparatively stronger growth, primarily on account of end-user demand in specific locations. When compared to the level seen in Q2 2019, weighted average price increased by 7 percent and 6 percent in Hyderabad and Ahmedabad, respectively. Launches declined significantly across cities, especially in Mumbai, Pune, Kolkata and Chennai. “The current pandemic is an unprecedented Black Swan event that is expected to contract growth in the global economy, including that of India. As anticipated, demand was adversely impacted due to economic uncertainty combined with growing unemployment; in fact, our recent Housing-NAREDCO buyer survey indicated buyers have pushed back their purchasing decision up to a year,” said Mani Rangarajan, Group COO, Housing.com, Makaan.com & PropTiger.com. While, developers are increasingly offering schemes such as flexible payment plans, selective discounts and price protection plans to attract buyers, developers are understandably cautious and are focused on completing existing projects, he said. Delivery of existing projects may also get pushed back depending on how quickly supply-chain, labour availability and liquidity inflows are restored. “We are unlikely to see new launches increase significantly for the next few quarters,” he said. More than 90 percent of all real estate search and discovery has moved online, he added.

new launches dipped by 81 percent during the quarter ending June 30. affordable housing continued to dominate the real estate sector. a vaccine works by mimicking a natural infection. a vaccine works by mimicking a natural infection. a vaccine works by mimicking a natural infection. a vaccine works by mimicking a natural infection.

Negative

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/biden-might-be-risky-for-chinese-economy-likely-to-impose-sanctions/articleshow/79471171.cms

Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden As tensions between the US and China continue to worsen under the current President Donald Trump 's administration due to Beijing's human rights violations and hiding vital information regarding COVID-19, a leading economist said that incomingadministration might impose sanctions thus affecting the Chinese economy next year.David Li Daokui, a professor at Tsinghua University and a former adviser to China's central bank, according to South China Morning Post warned that economic planners should not rule out the possibility of a Trump comeback in 2024 and added that President-electmight "continue Trump's hard-line approach to China.""If you ask me what are the risks facing the Chinese economy next year ... Number one, willintroduce restrictive policies that are precisely targeted at certain China's industries? That remains a question mark," he said at the China Macroeconomy Forum.He added, "Next year, China's foreign policy, certain industries and certain companies are likely to face some risks."The economist claimed that it would be much easier to communicate with's team than Trump's administration. However, he said that China should still be prepared for a Trump comeback in 2024. "It is very likely [that Trump will run again], he is still very healthy," Li said.China must drop its illusion that its relations with the United States will automatically improve under President-elect Joe's administration, a Chinese government advisor has said, adding that Beijing should be prepared for a tough stance from Washington.Zheng Yongnian, the Dean of the Advanced Institute of Global and Contemporary China Studies, a Shenzhen-based think tank, has said that the Chinese government should utilise every opportunity to mend ties with the US, South China Morning Post has reported."The good old days are over... the cold war hawks in the US have been in a highly mobilised state for several years, and they will not disappear overnight," Zheng said in an interview on the sidelines of the Understanding China Conference in Guangzhou recently.pledged that he would force China "to play by the international rules" regarding trade, treatment of foreign companies, and its actions in the South China Sea if he is elected to office."We need to be having the rest of our friends with us saying to China: these are the rules. You play by them or you're going to pay the price for not playing by them, economically," saidduring a Presidential debate.

a leading economist says a incoming administration might impose sanctions. he says a Trump comeback in 2024 is likely, but china should be prepared. a senior official says china should be prepared for a tough stance from the u.s. a senior official says the u.s. should not be a "stupid" ally of the u.s.

Negative

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/oil-edges-up-on-tighter-supply-but-demand-concerns-check-gains-5435991.html

Oil prices nudged higher on Monday on tighter supplies from major producers, but concerns that a record rise in global coronavirus cases could curb a recovery in fuel demand checked gains. Brent crude rose 9 cents, or 0.2%, to $42.28 a barrel by 0009 GMT, while U.S. crude was at $39.76 a barrel, up 1 cent. Both contracts rose about 9% last week and Brent crude futures flipped into backwardation, where oil for immediate delivery costs more than supply later, usually an indication of tightening supply. In the United States and Canada, the number of operating oil and natural gas rigs fell to a record low even as higher oil prices prompt some producers to start drilling again. Iraq and Kazakhstan pledged to comply better with oil production cuts during an OPEC+ panel on Thursday. However, the OPEC+ group, consisting of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, has yet to decide whether to extend a record supply cut of 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) for a fourth month in August. Oil prices have also been supported by a recovery in fuel demand globally following a collapse in April-May during coronavirus shutdowns as countries across the world resume economic activities. Still, the World Health Organization reported a record jump in global coronavirus cases on Sunday, with the biggest increase seen in north and south America. Spikes in coronavirus infections in parts of the world such as Beijing and Australia's second-most populous state Victoria have prompted authorities to reimpose movement restrictions to curb the spread. "The potential economic damage of a new round of COVID-19 countermeasures will likely contain any investor enthusiasm," said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets.

oil prices rise on tighter supplies from major producers. but coronavirus cases are on the rise. a record jump in global cases is seen in north and south America. the world health organization says the biggest increase was in north and south america. a record increase in cases in parts of the world. a new round of COVID-19 countermeasures could curb a recovery in fuel demand.

Negative

https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/corona-impact-estimates-put-fall-in-passenger-traffic-volumes-in-asia-pacific-at-24/1893876/

Airports Council International (ACI) Asia-Pacific warns that the prolonged duration of the COVID-19 outbreak will significantly set back the region’s airports from previously forecasted growth prospects. The airport association urges regulators and governments to implement well-defined adjustments and relief measures tailored to suit local level contexts. According to ACI World estimates, Asia-Pacific is facing the highest impact, with passenger traffic volumes down by 24% for the first quarter of 2020, compared to the forecasted traffic levels without COVID-19. Within the Asia-Pacific region, mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Republic of Korea remain at the centre of the effects with sizable losses in traffic volumes. Meanwhile, there is a sharp spike in the number of coronavirus cases in several countries in West Asia, expecting to significantly impact traffic downwards by 4.2%, as travellers and airlines adjust their plans and seat offers in the coming days and weeks. Against the gloomy backdrop of sharp declines in traffic and passenger throughput, airports’ aeronautical revenues and non-aeronautical revenues are rendering similar declines. “The ACI World Airport Traffic Forecasts 2019–2040 predicts $12.4 billion revenue for the first quarter in the Asia-Pacific region in the ‘business as usual’ scenario. The impact of COVID-19 is projected to have a revenue loss of $3 billion,” a ACI report said. The shortfall in the number of passengers and the cancellation of flights lead to reduced revenues from airport charges such as landing and parking fees paid by airlines, and passenger service and security levies paid by passengers. While aeronautical revenues are under pressure, the cost base for airport operations remains unchanged as airports can neither close nor relocate their terminals during the outbreak. Non-aeronautical sources of revenue usually serve as diversification of airport income streams, but they also provide an additional cushion during economic downturns. To a large extent, the coronavirus is impacting Chinese passengers, the world’s largest and highest-spending outbound travel group, creating a wider worldwide effect on airports. “Unlike airlines, who can choose to cancel flights or relocate their aircraft to other markets to reduce operating costs, airport operators manage immovable assets that cannot be closed down. They are faced with immediate cash flow pressures with limited ability to reduce fixed costs and few resources to fund capacity expansion efforts for longer-term future growth,” Stefano Baronci, director general of ACI Asia-Pacific, said. “For privately held airports, the situation is even worse as they do not benefit from relief measures but are obliged to continue paying concession fees to governments.” “The severity of the current situation requires a close cooperation between airport operators and policy stakeholders to identify options to tackle the crisis. For continued regional prosperity, as all the long-term forecasts suggest, we have to consider the overall sustainability of the sector, starting with the shortage of airport capacity. Asia already manages more than 50% of the super-congested airports in the world and will require to build the large majority of greenfield airports globally. Further, it is in the interest of the airports to explore at local level with their main partners relief measures to face the current challenges and recovery plans to incentivise the return to a normalised market. The blanket application of proposals to reduce airport charges or to freeze the application of the 80/20 rule on airport slots globally should not be supported without passing an economic feasibility test and justification by objective evidence,” Baronci said. Current slot allocation rules require airlines to use at least 80% of their allocated slots under normal operations at an airport in order to keep them. The proposal for a global suspension of 80/20 usage recently made by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) would give airlines the freedom to cancel flights to/from congested airports not necessarily linked to the COVID-19 outbreak, jeopardising the ability for countries to stay connected with the world.

airport association urges regulators and governments to implement well-defined adjustments and relief measures tailored to local contexts. mainland china, Hong Kong SAR and the Republic of Korea remain at the centre of the effects with sizable losses in traffic volumes. there is a sharp spike in the number of coronavirus cases in several countries in west Asia, expecting to significantly impact traffic downwards by 4.2%.

Negative

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/tamil-nadu-uttarakhand-emerging-as-hotspots-for-pangolin-trafficking-in-india-researchers-warn/articleshow/75060653.cms

NEW DELHI: As pangolins come under the scanner as potential intermediate hosts of the novel coronavirus transferred from bats to humans, Indian wildlife conservationists warn that the states of Tamil Nadu and Uttarakhand are emerging as the hotspots for the poaching of the endangered scaly anteater mammal.A recent study, published in the journal Cell, had placed pangolins as a natural reservoir of coronaviruses similar to SARS-CoV-2, the one behind the COVID-19 pandemic.Another recent study had identified the presence of SARS-CoV-2 like viruses in Malayan pangolins smuggled into China to be sold in wet markets.In these markets, pangolins find demand both in food and traditional medicine, making them the most-commonly trafficked mammal."The discovery of multiple lineages of pangolin coronavirus and their similarity to SARS-CoV-2 suggests that pangolins should be considered as possible hosts in the emergence of novel coronaviruses and should be removed from wet markets to prevent zoonotic transmission," said Ved Kumar, a former wildlife conservationist with Wildlife Institute of India (WII), and founder of Maaty Biodiversity Conservation & Societal Research Organization in Uttarakhand.Kumar told PTI that over the last decade, the demand for pangolin biological parts in China and other Southern Asian markets has increased due to their perceived medicinal properties, and value as a delicacy."So the poaching graph of this species continuously increases," he said.In their study, published in the journal Forensic Science International : Reports, Kumar and his team described the hotspots for pangolin trafficking in India.Based on their research, Kumar said between 2003 and 2014, states in Northeast India like Assam, Manipur, and Meghalaya were the hotspots for pangolin poaching in the country, adding that trafficking of the animals is also increasing in other places."Now the trends change as poachers move towards Southern and Northern India. In the current scenario, Tamilnadu and Uttarakhand are the hotspots of poaching," he said, adding that dense forests with open boundaries and low forest staffs are factors linked to increased poaching in a region.Based on earlier studies from 2011 to 2013, analysing 51 pangolin seizures reported all over India, the scientists said 42 of them were made from the North-eastern states of India.Assessing another report of more than 91 pangolin seizures, reported between 2009–2017, they said the states of Manipur and Tamilnadu have had the highest number of documented confiscations.The latest study by Kumar and his team indicated that between 2014 and 2018 most of the cases were reported from central, northern, and eastern Indian states where Maharashtra and Uttarakhand report the second highest position with 12 per cent of overall seizures.This study assessed the status of illegal trade of pangolin based on seizures reported from 2009 to 2018 in India using available data from print and electronic media."Over the last decade 119 pangolin seizures were recorded and it is estimated that 7500 individuals perished in a decade. It is concluded that in India its north-eastern part is the hub of trade of pangolins," Kumar and his team noted in the study.According to the scientists, the poached animals are transported by traffickers into China and Myanmar through road and postal services."Road transport, local taxi and postal service are the modes of trafficking. If we talking about Southern India, the traders purchase the pangolin body part from the local poachers, transport via road in trucks and other heavy vehicles by West Bengal to Assam, Nagaland, and transport into China via Myanmar," Kumar explained in an email.Asked about the reasons for the demand for the "shy and nocturnal" mammal, he said these are largely driven by myths about their healing properties."People have myths that the pangolin's various body parts, especially their scales, and also its fetuses, blood, bones and claws have healing properties in traditional medicines," the wildlife conservationist said.Kumar clarified that there is no scientific proof for these beliefs, adding that some people also consume the animal as meat."Their meat is considered a delicacy and high source of protein in restaurants, where its consumption is also a symbol of status," he added.As the "secretive and slow-moving" mammal continues to be killed and transported illegally, Kumar said the places from which they are removed may see changes in their ecology."Ecologically pangolins are so important. In natural ecosystem it plays as a biological pest controller and soil caretakers. Due to their food preferences pangolin control the population of termites and ants in natural ecosystem," he said.Each year, Kumar said, a pangolin consumes about 70 million insects from the forest, making it safe for plant species."Apart from that, their large and elongated claws make them capable of burrowing underground for shelter and to excavate termites and insects for food. In doing so the soil is mixed and aerated, improving the quality of the nutrients in the soil," he added.Since the major threat for the survival of pangolin is from local communities, Kumar said, an understanding of public perceptions and awareness on conservation of the mammal is important.

conservationists warn that the states of Tamil Nadu and Uttarakhand are emerging as the hotspots for the poaching of pangolins. pangolins are a natural reservoir of coronaviruses similar to SARS-CoV-2. the scaly anteater mammal is the most-commonly trafficked mammal in the world.

Negative

https://www.businesstoday.in/markets/stocks/coronavirus-effect-sensex-nifty-crash-december-quarter-gdp-data/story/396972.html

Indian markets have come under pressure in the last four sessions with their global peers gauging the impact of Coronavirus on world growth after fresh cases of infections and deaths were reported outside China. While benchmark Sensex has lost 1,435 points, Nifty has fallen 447 points since February 19. Sensex which stood at 41,323 on February 19 closed at 39,888 today. The correction in stock market has erased investors' wealth by Rs 5.49 lakh crore during the past four sessions. Sensex which had gained nearly 0.16% or 70 points on an year-to-date basis till February 19 has entered the red zone due to concerns over global growth in the wake of rising cases of Coronavirus outside China. Coronavirus update: India doesn't want its people to travel to Korea, Iran, Italy The benchmark index has now fallen 3.31% or 1,364.78 points since January 1. Similarly, Nifty declined 489 points or 4.03% since the beginning of this year. Foreign investors are also seeking investment in safe haven assets such as gold and government securities and have been net sellers in Indian market since February 19. Till yesterday, FIIs sold shares worth Rs 2,171 crore in Indian market since January 19. Siddhartha Khemka, Head, Retail Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services said, "With the outbreak spreading to other countries, investors are increasingly concerned that there could be a much larger impact on the global economy. Investors are also cautious ahead of the December quarter GDP data on Friday as well the February monthly F&O expiry on Thursday. Markets are expected to remain volatile in the near term given the F&O expiry and spread of coronavirus outside China." Coronavirus hits Iran's deputy health minister as outbreak worsens With market heading downward on global growth fears, market experts say traders should focus on stock selection. Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking said, "The recent global developments indicate that the coronavirus could escalate into a pandemic, which is taking a toll on markets across the globe including ours. Nifty has breached its critical support of 11,700 and settled below the same as well. We thus advise continuing with the "sell on rise" approach in the index. Stocks, on the other hand, are seeing erratic swings and the schedule derivative expiry of the February month contract would further add to the volatility. Traders should focus more on stock selection and risk management until markets stabilise." Death toll in China has now crossed 2,700 while those infected are approaching 80,000 though new cases in China are falling, Chinese government said. With the global market crash percolating into Indian indices, experts say buying strategies should be devised during the correction phase. Shrikant Chouhan, Senior Vice-President, Equity Technical Research at Kotak Securities said, "Global markets virtually collapsed on Wednesday and Indian markets too felt the heat. The main reason behind such a big crash was the announcement from Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which warned of a broader disruption if the Corona virus threat spreads to the US. Mounting worries triggered a sharp fall across the asset classes namely gold, crude and even the 3-year Gsec. Technically, the Nifty has come down a lot in the short term. Nifty can see a major bounce back if it arrests at 11,600 level, which is more likely. Major support exists at 11600, but if the Nifty slips below this, then the medium term trend could be gloomy." Global markets France's CAC 40 lost 0.6% to 5,644.47 in early trading, while Germany's DAX fell 1% to 12,661.83. Britain's FTSE 100 lost 0.6% to 6,976.95 today. Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 declined 0.8% to finish at 22,426.19, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 dipped2.3% to 6,708.10.South Korea's Kospi lost1% to 2,076.77. Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.8% to 26,674.67. The Shanghai Composite fell 0.8% to 2,987.93. On Wall Street, S&P 500 has lost 7.6% in the last four days since hitting a record high last Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 879 points, for a two-day loss of 1,911 points. The viral outbreak that originated in China has now infected more than 80,000 people globally, with more cases being reported in Europe and the Middle East. The majority of cases and deaths remain centered in China, but the rapid spread to other parts of the world has spooked markets and raised fears that it will hurt the global economy. By Aseem Thapliyal

Sensex has lost 1,435 points, while Nifty has fallen 447 points since February 19. correction in stock market has erased investors' wealth by Rs 5.49 lakh crore. Sensex had gained nearly 0.16% or 70 points on an year-to-date basis till February 19. FIIs have been net sellers in india market since february 19.

Negative

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/will-robinhood-investors-give-in-to-market-fall-what-analysts-say/articleshow/78299037.cms

NEW DELHI: With six days of back-to-back selloff in benchmark indices, marketmen are left wondering whether retail investors who have been the saviour this pandemic year will give in to bears. Analysts say Nifty at 10,800 is a good support level , which could lead to recovery in the market. But if the index sees further slide, it would surely give jitters to small investors.BSE market capitalisation data shows investors have lost nearly Rs 11.31 lakh crore in six trading sessions. BSE m-cap stood at Rs 148.76 lakh crore today against Rs 160 lakh crore as of September 16.Market vateran Ambareesh Baliga noted that the stock market has seen 50 lakh new investors since March. "These investors have been the key reason behind the market sustainability amid foreign outflows and tepid mutual fund participations. We see good support for Nifty50 at 10,800. But if it breaks, we see a sharp 1,000 points fall. Robinhood investors have been in profits only since March. If their losses get mounted, a panic is all likely," he said.Registered stocks investors in India stood at 5,48,21,836 as of September 24, a rise of 2.51 per cent or 13.41 lakh over a comparable date last month. The number has gone up by 7.33 per cent over the last one quarter and 36 per cent from the year-ago level. Small investors usually prefer midcap and smallcap stocks.Retail investors have seen a decent run up, said Ajit Mishra of Religare Securities . "But in this week itself, the midcap and smallcap indices have fallen 8 per cent each. A retail investor might be keeping two fundamentally sound stocks, four okayish stocks and the rest a mix of smallcap and penny stocks in his portfolio. They might not panic right away, but if the decline continues, panic will surely set in." Mishra said he had 10,800 target for Nifty after the index breached 11,400 level recently.At 14,168.28, BSE Smallcap index is still up 66 per cent over its March low of 8,622.24. This is against a 42 per cent rise for BSE Sensex from its March lows of 25,638.90. BSE Midcap index has gained 46 per cent during the same period.Mishra said he still sees it as a strong support but is worried about a fall in the banking space. He thinks any short term bounce may fizzle out and the index may drift towards 10,550. Sunil Jain of Nirmal Bang Securities noted that the broader trend has been negative ever since the first selloff took place on August 31. "If yo notice, a weak trend has set in across commodity including precious metals since then. We believe that the market is oversold and we may see some bounce in the short term. But the trend remains negative and the indices are unlikely to touch their recent high for now."Umesh Shah of Samco Securities said that the market rise had been in disconnect with the economic reality. "While the unlocking happened, businesses did not recover fully. But the froth in the midcaps and small caps space kept on building. Now since they were the one outperforming since March lows, we see them correcting higher as well. It may surely concern retail investors. Also, while largecap stocks have support of institutional investors with financial muscle, second rung stocks don't have such comfort," he said.Sameer Kalra of Target Investing said every quarter there is a rebalancing by global funds and this quarter a $200 billion of selling was pending which has now kicked in. "That is why FPI numbers were weak for the last few days. This rebalancing had to happen from equities to bonds because the former were underperforming. It was the highest since March. But its impact on global markets has not been as high as one would assume. We do not see this fall to go on beyond a day or two."

analysts say Nifty at 10,800 is a good support level. but if it breaks, we see a sharp 1,000 points fall. if the index sees further slide, it would surely give jitters to small investors. a retail investor might not panic right away, but if the decline continues, panic will surely set in. a spokesman for the sabhai group said the market is "not ready"

Negative

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/banking/finance/banking/lic-yet-to-seek-open-offer-exemption-for-idbi-takeover-sebi/articleshow/65861505.cms

Markets watchdog Sebi Tuesday said LIC has not sought any exemption from the open offer requirement to take over the crippled state-run lender IDBI Bank for around Rs 11,000 crore.On July 16, the board of the national insurer had accepted the forced takeover of the bank, which has been under the prompt corrective action plan of the Reserve Bank after its bad loans touched 28 per cent.On August 1, the Cabinet Committee of Economic Affairs also cleared the proposal under which the city-headquartered bank will become a subsidiary of LIC."No, we have not received any proposal from LIC seeking an exemption from the open offer requirements," Sebi chairman Ajay Tyagi told reporters during a presser after the board meeting here this evening.When asked whether it will be granted if sought, he said let them first make a proposal.Since IDBI Bank is a publicly traded entity, under the Sebi takeover code, LIC will to have go for an open offer to acquire majority stake. The open offer rules kick in when the holding by a single shareholder goes above 25 per cent.LIC holds 10.82 per cent in the bank now and is in the process of picking up an additional 7 per cent stake in the bank through preference shares. It will altogether invest around Rs 11,000 crore for a 51 per cent control.There were reports that government might ask Sebi to exempt LIC from making an open offer to the minority shareholders of IDBI Bank. "LIC is exploring an open offer. It will either be exemption, otherwise an open offer," economic affairs secretary SC Garg had told reporters on September 5.But Garg was quick to add that Sebi would take a final call on the open offer saying "exemption or not, that is for Sebi to decide."

LIC has not sought exemption from open offer requirement to take over IDBI Bank. the national insurer has accepted the forced takeover of the bank. the bank has been crippled by bad loans. the government has been trying to get the bank's shares back. LIC holds 10.82 per cent of the bank and is in the process of picking up an additional 7 per cent stake.

Negative

https://www.financialexpress.com/money/insurance/health-insurance-tips-for-buying-health-cover-for-the-elderly/2132233/

By Amit Chhabra As your parents turn 60, they enter a phase of their lives when they need to spend a stress-free life with no worries. Ageing parents require frequent visits to the doctor and at times require repeated hospitalisation. While covering your parents under your family health insurance policy is a great way to ensure they get the best treatment whenever required, have you ever thought that considering the age of your parents, whether your family health insurance policy is really enough? With healthcare inflation rising, your family health insurance cover of Rs 8-10 lakh may not necessarily solve the purpose. Moreover, there is a great possibility that if anybody makes a claim in a given year, the sum insured may fall short to pay for the entire hospital bill if another claim is made within the same policy year. This scenario makes it very important to cover your parents under an individual health insurance policy as chances of your elderly parents making a claim are much higher which may leave very less sum insured for the other insured members. Also, if you choose to cover your elderly parents under your family floater health insurance policy, the premium would be significantly high. It is always better to cover your spouse and kids under one policy and your parents under a separate policy. This will not only help you to reduce the premium but will also help in enhancing the coverage as the sum insured will not be divided amongst many people. Individual cover for parents It is always suggested to cover your parents under a separate health insurance cover as early as possible because the earlier you buy a health cover for them, the greater will be the benefits. Most health insurance policies for senior citizens come with a set of limitations such as mandatory co-pay— wherein the insured has to pay a portion of the hospital bill—and extended waiting period. As senior citizens are more prone to particular ailments, the insurers implement a mandatory waiting period on many such common illnesses. If you get your parents enrolled under an individual health cover before they turn 60, there will be no burden of co-payment clause for a lifetime and also the waiting period will be served within a specified time period. Checkbox for selecting a plan While buying a health insurance cover for your parents, there are numerous things that you need to consider for a seamless experience. Most of the policies carry an entry age limitation and a policy seeker cannot buy a particular policy if the entry age is crossed. So before buying a policy, check the entry age. Also, go for a plan for your parents that offers maximum coverage against critical illnesses and pre-existing diseases. You may look for a health plan from insurers that have products specifically designed for elderly parents. The writer is health business head, Policybazaar.com

as your parents turn 60, they enter a phase of their lives when they need to spend a stress-free life with no worries. while covering your parents under your family health insurance policy is a great way to ensure they get the best treatment whenever required, have you ever thought that considering the age of your parents, whether your family health insurance cover is really enough? with healthcare inflation rising, your family health insurance cover of Rs 8-10 lakh may not solve the purpose.

Negative

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/earnings/tvs-motor-outperforms-market-expectations-even-as-march-quarter-profit-halves/articleshow/76072701.cms

Mumbai: Leading two- and three-wheeler maker TVS Motor Company’s profit during the March quarter nearly halved on account of exceptional expenses incurred towards COVID 19-related expenses and slowing business in the months leading to the pandemic.The company’s profit for the quarter was down 45% to Rs 74 crore, while revenue was down 21% to Rs 3,481 crore. The company also netted a sum of Rs 22 crore incurred towards discounts to liquidate BS-IV inventory against the revenue.Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) were down 21% to Rs 245 crore. EBITDA margin remained constant at 7%, notwithstanding the one-time cost to liquidate BS-IV inventory.The company sold about 633,000 vehicles during the quarter including exports as against 907,000 units registered in the corresponding quarter last year – a 30% decline. For the complete fiscal sales were down 17% to 3.26 million units.“TVS Motor has delivered a decent performance in 4QFY20 despite tough business situations, as it benefited from the better product mix, higher export contribution, and favourable exchange rate,” said Mitul Shah, vice president for research, Reliance Securities.The company reported a 12% decline in profit for the complete fiscal to Rs 592 crore. Revenue was down 10% to Rs 16,423 crore. While EBITDA declined by 6% to Rs 1,346 crore, EBITDA margin improved by 32 basis points to 8.19%.Going forward, Shah expects TVS Motor to benefit from a revival in the rural economy given the company’s rural-focussed products. It also stands to gain from the purchase of two-wheelers by people apprehensive to use public transport facilities, he said.

the company's profit for the quarter was down 45% to Rs 74 crore. revenue was down 21% to Rs 3,481 crore. the company also netted a sum of Rs 22 crore towards discounts to liquidate BS-IV inventory against the revenue. the company sold about 633,000 vehicles during the quarter including exports as against 907,000 units registered in the corresponding quarter last year.

Negative

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/mutual-funds/bouts-of-volatility-in-equities-to-continue-navneet-munot-sbi-mf-5268071.html

While the government is addressing the first-order impact on the poor affected by the COVID-19 lockdown, a lot more needs to be done to help businesses and avoid second-order impacts, according to Navneet Munot, Executive Director and Chief Investment Officer, SBI Mutual Fund. “Social agenda needs resources that can only be generated by reviving growth and expanding the pie. Versus most countries, we have been high on stringency of the lockdown and low on fiscal support,"Munot told Moneycontrol. “The economic fallout is real and a matter of concern though,” he added. He expressed concern that while the fiscal room may be limited, India must be cautious of the "paradox of thrift". Paradox of thrift means individuals try to save more during an economic recession, which essentially leads to a fall in aggregate demand and hence in economic growth. "Given the environment, both corporate sector and households may remain thrifty and risk-averse, the onus is on government to lever up and spend. While direct support to poor was critical during the lockdown, as the economy opens fiscal multiplier should be the driving force in prioritizing expenditure," he said. Track this blog for highlights from second day of FM's press briefings Infrastructure projects should be prioritised to create immediate employment. Fortunately, rural economy is in decent shape and must be shielded from supply chain disruptions as well as from the virus that returning migrant workers may bring along, Munot said. RBI's role Munot agreed that the central bank has been aggressive in policy response so far, but yet it has only met with partial success in achieving the desired outcomes. He referred to the big disconnect between macro and micro level liquidity. The tepid response to TLTRO 2.0 suggests lack of risk appetite and therefore the real economy stays starved for funds, Munot said. Government providing first loss guarantee, further relaxation in prudential norms, and RBI capping absorption through the reverse repo window along with aggressive OMOs are some measures that should help transmission, Munot said. Referring to the credit market, Munot said: "This month credit markets witnessed an unprecedented event when a $ 3 billion bond portfolio was left wanting for liquidity in a $ 3 trillion economy." Next generation financial system reforms such as deepening of corporate bond markets, securitisation market, channelising patient capital through the AIF route and creating lenders of last resort, to name a few should be considered, he pointed out. "Banks' lending behaviour is largely pro-cyclical and therefore we need a strong institutional framework to facilitate access to capital across the credit spectrum when the cycle is at its worst and its need to sustain the economy is the highest. If access to formal capital stays blocked, there is a risk of return to informal money lenders and in turn reverse the gains of formalisation. Amidst the recent challenges in the debt market, SBI MF's conservatism and prudent credit assessment has helped. Given the growth-inflation-external account dynamic, we stay long duration," Munot said. On equities, he said: "Several valuation measures were in the vicinity of GFC (Global Financial Crisis) lows in late March." However, he believes that the run-up since March has been too sharp given the challenging economic backdrop, and therefore further bouts of volatility should not be ruled out. Follow our full coverage of the coronavirus outbreak here

Navneet munot, executive director and chief investment officer, SBI Mutual Fund, says economic fallout is real. he says government must be cautious of the "paradox of thrift" he says infrastructure projects should be prioritised to create immediate employment. munot: tepid response to TLTRO 2.0 suggests lack of risk appetite.

Negative

https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/how-us-ban-on-chinas-zte-wreaked-havoc-at-wireless-carriers-in-europe-and-south-asia/1247833/

The U.S. trade ban on Chinese telecom equipment maker ZTE wreaked havoc at wireless carriers in Europe and South Asia and forced operators worldwide to consider broadening their supply networks, industry sources told Reuters. Disruptions at Russian and emerging markets mobile operator Veon, one of the world’s 10 largest mobile firms by number of customers, illustrate the effects of the U.S. ban, which lasted three months, ending when the U.S. Commerce Department lifted the order on Friday. Veon was especially hard hit, suffering launch delays at its Italian joint venture and in Ukraine, near network outages in Bangladesh, and lesser disruptions at its Pakistan operations, sources at the Amsterdam-based operator told Reuters. “Veon has decided to second source everything,” a person familiar with the strategy shift at Veon said of moves to reduce dependence on any one supplier of network gear. “We don’t want the company to be in the same position we were in when the U.S. (ban on ZTE) came out: It caused massive problems in three or four of our markets,” the source said. Perhaps the biggest setback was for Italian mobile operator Wind Tre, which had a 1 billion euro ($1.17 billion) contract with ZTE to upgrade radio equipment. The ban forced ZTE to abandon more than half of the remainder of the contract, and Wind Tre will use gear from network supplier Ericsson instead, sources told Reuters. The original deal had marked ZTE’s biggest breakthrough into the European market, which has been dominated by regional players such as Ericsson of Sweden and Nokia of Finland. Ericsson’s win with Wind Tre could be a sign of renewed momentum for the Swedish equipment supplier, which has struggled in recent years with slowing growth, restructuring and big job cuts. One industry expert said operators may start using multiple vendors to avoid being stuck with a supplier that comes under trade sanctions or suffers other extended disruptions. “Many supplier strategies will be reviewed,” said Bengt Nordstrom, a telecoms industry consultant based in Sweden who advises operators on equipment purchasing strategies. “Wind Tre was the first example so far. This is a wake-up call to the industry that if you have a single vendor dominating your network supply chain – ZTE for now, but other vendors eventually – you are leaving yourself exposed.” NETWORK FALLOUT Veon’s Ukrainian unit, Kyivstar, the largest mobile operator in that country, postponed its introduction of 4G mobile services in April because of the ZTE ban, according to two sources at Veon and one at ZTE. “The 4G launch had to actually be put on hold, so Kyivstar lost ground to competitors because of our obligations to comply with the denial order,” said one of the sources, a senior executive at Veon. Kyivstar’s two main rivals are Vodafone Ukraine, owned by Russia’s MTS/Sistema and UK-based global operator Vodafone ; and Lifecell, a unit of Turkcell of Turkey. Kyivstar launched its 4G service in early July, more than two months behind schedule, by using a part of the network that didn’t depend on ZTE, one source said. Network blackouts were narrowly averted at Veon’s Bangalink unit in Bangladesh. “There was an issue with Bangladeshi network upgrades that really went down to the wire,” the source told Reuters. “Only at the 11th hour did the U.S. allow some temporary relief from the order.” Global telecoms trade group GSMA negotiated a one-month reprieve with the Commerce Department that allowed Bangalink and other ZTE customers to engage in “essential transactions” that allowed existing networks and handsets to keep working, the group said. Veon has maintained strict compliance with the ZTE ban in all markets, two company sources said. All ZTE equipment shipped to Veon’s subsidiaries after the U.S. order was returned. This included both network hardware and ZTE mobile handsets, a Veon executive at its Russian operating subsidiary said. Spanish telecom operator Telefonica relied on technical workarounds during the ban, but still cancelled some ZTE contracts, a separate source with knowledge of the relationship between the firms told Reuters. Lawyers at the two companies held weekly meetings to ensure careful compliance, the source said. ZTE was unable to ship any gear to the Spanish telecoms giant that relied on components from U.S.-based chipmakers Qualcomm or Intel or smartphones running the Google Android operating system, for example. Disruptions were minimized because ZTE contracts accounted for less than 5 percent of the telecom giant’s equipment spending, the source said. The scale of workarounds and outages at other major ZTE customers, including China Mobile and MTN, Africa’s top operator, is not yet known. The U.S. Department of Commerce in April banned U.S. companies from selling goods to ZTE after the Chinese company failed to comply with a 2016 settlement involving evasion of sanctions against Iran. The U.S. lifted its ban on Friday, weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump said the punishment was too harsh.

industry sources say the ban on china's ZTE wreaked havoc at wireless carriers. the biggest setback was for italian mobile operator Wind Tre. the ban forced ZTE to abandon more than half of the remainder of the contract. the ban ended when the u.s. Commerce department lifted the order on friday. a spokesman for the chinese telecoms maker said the company was considering a broadening its supply network.

Negative

https://www.financialexpress.com/money/insolvency-and-bankruptcy-laws-impact-of-covid-19-outbreak-and-opportunities-that-may-arise/1936344/

Factoring in the outbreak of COVID-19, the fret of becoming NPA has been at the pinnacle for small and medium-sized business industry. From the struggles in paying salaries to the employees to seeking deferment of repayment of loans & GST, the same has been mirroring the effects of the pandemic over the industry. Consideration of the prevailing unprecedented scenario wherein the spread of pandemic has created a situation of hue and cry globally, the Legislature, Executive and the Judiciary, in order to mitigate its adverse consequences, are consistently aiming to bring amendments in-laws, orders, notifications, and circulars. Aiming protection to these business holders the MCA vide its notification dated 28.03.2020 has tried to relieve these entities by increasing the threshold limit for claim from Rs 1 lakh to Rs 1 crore, i.e. now insolvency proceedings cannot be triggered against the corporate debtor unless there is a minimum default of Rs 1 crore. With this in mind, the companies can now focus on stabilizing the business operations rather than being under the constant fear of inevitable insolvency. It is imperative to understand the indispensable role played by the Apex Court and the NCLAT. The Apex Court vide its order dated 23.03.2020 in the “Suo moto writ petition(civil) 03/2020” has taken the cognizance of the probable hurdles and extended the period of limitation for proceedings before all Courts/Tribunals in the country with effect from 15.03.2020 till further order(s) which is having a direct implication in the matters pertaining to the insolvency. Thereafter, the IBBI in a move relieving various stakeholders including the RP has amended the CIRP Regulations vide notification dated 29.03.2020 by inserting Regulation 40 C excluding the period of the lockdown for the purposes of calculating the timeline for any activity. Furthermore, NCLAT in its order dated 30.03.2020 in “Suo Moto – Company Appeal (AT) (Insolvency) No. 01 of 2020” taking reference of the dictum in “Quinn Logistics India Pvt. Ltd. vs. Mack Soft-Tech Pvt. Ltd” held that the period of lockdown shall be excluded for the purposes of CIRP and has ordered the continuance of the interim/stay order in any appeal under Companies Act, 2013 or Competition Act, 2002 passed by the Tribunal until the next hearing. Similarly, the RBI in its notification dated 27.03.2020, mitigated the burden of debt by deferment of repayment of EMIs and Loan amount for a period of three months after the moratorium period from March 1, 2020, to May 31, 2020, on their outstanding. It is imperative to point out the predominant challenges in the domain of IBC which includes overburdened Tribunal adversely affecting the disposal of the cases, though the government in order to mitigate took an initiative to increase the benches by appointing more Judicial and Technical Members. Despite these efforts, the harsh reality is that the number of pending cases is at zenith, causing a delay in disposal, directly affecting the economy of the country. Another challenge requiring utmost attention is the adjudication of the resolution plan approval applications filed before the Tribunal. In simple terms, once the resolution plan is approved by the CoC, an application is to be filed before the Tribunal seeking approval of the same resulting in the takeover of the stressed corporate debtor by the resolution applicant on the going concern basis. However, it is unfortunate that such applications that require expeditious disposal are kept pending for a very long time adversely affecting the resolution applicant. Another challenge which is faced by the RP is the non-cooperation from the suspended BOD, the CoC, difficulty in implementing the business decision and adherence/compliance of strict timelines and compliances amounting to the derailment, creating an opportunity for the competitors to be way ahead of the Corporate Debtor and deterioration in the value of assets. The way forward Undoubtedly, the orders passed by the Hon’ble Supreme Court, Hon’ble NCLAT along the notification passed by the IBBI unequivocally grant the much-needed relief to all the stakeholders by taking measures such as extending the period of limitation and excluding the period of lockdown and also, it shall minimize the hardships which would have otherwise been faced by the Resolution Professional in complying with the various statutory requirements. If we look and analyze these measures, it can be evidently deduced that increment in the threshold would be directly proportional to the reduction in filings before NCLT (Tribunal) and it would unburden the Tribunal substantially and thus it shall be taken as an opportunity by the Tribunal to focus on the speedy disposal of the pending cases so that the Corporate Debtor can run their business again. To an extent it shall prevent the fall of the economy by increasing employment rate since now it is highly probable that the pending cases pertaining to the approval of the resolution plan shall be dealt with expeditiously. Thus, if the NCLT gears up and decides on all pending resolution plans, then there will be an opportunity for jobs for the people in the Indian market. (By CA Ramchandra D. Choudhary, Founder, Sun Resolution Professionals Pvt Ltd, and expert in the field of insolvency and bankruptcy laws) Disclaimer: The author’s views are personal.

smts are facing a pandemic of COVID-19, a pandemic that has sparked a global crisis. the spread of the pandemic has created a situation of hue and cry globally. the smts are urged to take action to mitigate the effects of the pandemic. the smts are urged to take action to ensure that the smts are not subject to a repercussions of the pandemic

Negative

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world/dr-anthony-fauci-warns-of-suffering-and-death-if-us-reopens-too-soon-5257031.html

Dr Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, is warning Congress that if the country reopens too soon during the coronavirus pandemic, it will result in “needless suffering and death.” Fauci is among the health experts testifying to a Senate panel. His testimony comes as President Donald Trump is praising states that are reopening after the prolonged lock-down aimed at controlling the virus' spread. Fauci, a member of the coronavirus task force charged with shaping the response to COVID-19, which has killed tens of thousands of people in the U.S., is testifying via video conference after self-quarantining as a White House staffer tested positive for the virus. With the U.S. economy in free-fall and more than 30 million people unemployed, Trump has been pressuring states to reopen. Fauci, in a statement to The New York Times, warned that officials should adhere to federal guidelines for a phased reopening, including a “downward trajectory” of positive tests or documented cases of coronavirus over two weeks, robust contact tracing and “sentinel surveillance” testing of asymptomatic people in vulnerable populations, such as nursing homes. “If we skip over the checkpoints in the guidelines...then we risk the danger of multiple outbreaks throughout the country," Fauci wrote. COVID-19 Vaccine Frequently Asked Questions View more How does a vaccine work? A vaccine works by mimicking a natural infection. A vaccine not only induces immune response to protect people from any future COVID-19 infection, but also helps quickly build herd immunity to put an end to the pandemic. Herd immunity occurs when a sufficient percentage of a population becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely. The good news is that SARS-CoV-2 virus has been fairly stable, which increases the viability of a vaccine. How many types of vaccines are there? There are broadly four types of vaccine — one, a vaccine based on the whole virus (this could be either inactivated, or an attenuated [weakened] virus vaccine); two, a non-replicating viral vector vaccine that uses a benign virus as vector that carries the antigen of SARS-CoV; three, nucleic-acid vaccines that have genetic material like DNA and RNA of antigens like spike protein given to a person, helping human cells decode genetic material and produce the vaccine; and four, protein subunit vaccine wherein the recombinant proteins of SARS-COV-2 along with an adjuvant (booster) is given as a vaccine. What does it take to develop a vaccine of this kind? Vaccine development is a long, complex process. Unlike drugs that are given to people with a diseased, vaccines are given to healthy people and also vulnerable sections such as children, pregnant women and the elderly. So rigorous tests are compulsory. History says that the fastest time it took to develop a vaccine is five years, but it usually takes double or sometimes triple that time. View more Show "This will not only result in needless suffering and death, but would actually set us back on our quest to return to normal." Other senior health officials scheduled to testify before the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions committee will also appear via video link after going into self-quarantine, following their exposure to a White House staffer who tested positive. The chairman of the committee, Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, also put himself in quarantine after an aide tested positive. He'll participate by video, too. Besides Fauci, of the National Institutes of Health, the other experts include FDA Commissioner Dr. Stephen Hahn and Dr. Robert Redfield, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, along with Adm. Brett Giroir, the coronavirus “testing czar” at the Department of Health and Human Services. Even before the gavel drops, the hearing offers two takeaways for the rest of the country, said John Auerbach, president of the nonprofit public health group Trust for America's Health. Follow our full coverage of the coronavirus pandemic here.

a top infectious disease expert is testifying to a senate panel. he says reopening too soon will result in "needless suffering and death" he is among the health experts testifying to a panel. president obama is praising states that are reopening after the prolonged lock-down.

Negative

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world/coronavirus-pandemic-south-korea-has-10-new-cases-and-no-new-deaths-5188441.html

South Korea has reported 10 fresh cases of the new coronavirus, the eighth day in a row its daily jump came below 20, as its outbreak slows amid tightened border controls and waning infections in the worst-hit city of Daegu. The country also on Saturday reported no new deaths for the second straight day. The figures released from South Korea's Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Saturday brought national totals to 10,718 cases and 240 deaths. While a slowing caseload has allowed South Korea to relax its social distancing guidelines over the past week, Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun raised concern over possible transmissions by “quiet spreaders” and instructed officials to conduct antibody tests in Daegu and nearby towns to learn how widespread the coronavirus is. Chung also called for stronger financial tools to ease the epidemic's economic shock, which has caused severe cashflow problems for airlines while also hurting major exporters such as carmakers and shipbuilders. The government is looking to create a 40 trillion won ($32 billion) fund through bonds issued by state-run banks to protect jobs in key industries, but the plan needs parliamentary approval. South Korea's economy shrank 1.4 percent during the first three months of the year, the worst contraction since late-2008, as the pandemic hit both domestic consumption and exports.

south Korea reports 10 fresh cases of the new coronavirus. the country also reports no new deaths for the second straight day. the country's economy shrank 1.4 percent during the first three months of the year. the pandemic has caused severe cashflow problems for airlines and hurts exporters. a slowing caseload has allowed south Korea to relax its social distancing guidelines.

Negative

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/trump-discussed-energy-markets-with-saudi-crown-prince-white-house-5019761.html

US President Donald Trump discussed "global energy markets" with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, the White House said Tuesday, after a deep plunge in oil prices shook markets worldwide. The White House statement said Trump spoke with the crown prince on Monday but gave few details on the substance of their discussions, "The president and the crown prince discussed global energy markets and other critical regional and bilateral issues," it said. On Monday, oil prices plummeted by more than 30 percent in international markets as a price war broke out between Saudi Arabia and Russia, triggering a massive sell-off in global stock markets. By Tuesday, oil prices had bounced back 10 percent and stock markets also rebounded.

the white house says the president and the crown prince discussed "global energy markets" on Monday, oil prices plummeted by more than 30 percent in international markets. the president and the crown prince discussed "other critical regional and bilateral issues," the white house says. oil prices have bounced back 10 percent by Tuesday. the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia triggered a massive sell-off in global markets.

Negative

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world/china-skorea-report-new-cases-in-double-digits-5466181.html

China has reported an uptick in new coronavirus cases, a day after the nation's CDC said it expects an outbreak in Beijing to be brought under control soon. The National Health Commission said Saturday that 21 cases had been confirmed nationwide in the latest 24-hour period, including 17 in the nation's capital. City officials have temporarily shut a huge wholesale food market where the virus spread widely, re-closed schools and locked down some neighbourhoods. A report by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention said that testing has found only a few infected people without a link to the market and that the steps taken mean the risk of further spread is low, the official Xinhua News Agency said. Anyone leaving Beijing is required to have a negative result from a nucleic acid test within the previous seven days. Many Chinese are travelling during a four-day holiday weekend that ends Sunday. China has reported 83,483 confirmed cases and 4,634 deaths in the pandemic. People who test positive but show no symptoms are not included in its official case count. South Korea has reported 51 newly confirmed cases of the coronavirus as fresh clusters continue to emerge in the densely populated Seoul area. They bring the national caseload to 12,653, including 282 deaths. Thirty-five of the new cases came from Seoul and nearby cities and towns, which have been at the centre of a COVID-19 resurgence since late May. Twelve others were linked to international arrivals. Health authorities are struggling to trace contacts and predict infection routes with new clusters popping up from just about everywhere. Hundreds of infections have been linked to nightspots, church gatherings, restaurants and low-income workers such as door-to-door salespeople and warehouse employees. Officials have so far resisted calls to reimpose stronger social distancing guidelines after easing them in mid-April, citing concerns about a fragile economy. Australian health officials are expecting more cases of COVID-19 as hundreds of nationals return from overseas to begin mandatory quarantine. About 300 people are due to arrive in Adelaide this weekend from Mumbai, India, while hundreds are expected to follow from South America and Indonesia. People in hotel quarantine will be tested for the coronavirus at the start and end of their 14-day isolation. South Australia state Health Minister Stephen Wade says he's preparing for about 5% to 10% returnees to have the virus, as was the case when people returned from Indonesia in other states. Melbourne recorded 30 new cases on Friday, continuing a run of double-digit increases that has more than tripled Victoria state's active cases to 183 in just over a week. In an attempt to reduce the chance of new flareups during a two-week school holiday break, almost 5,000 infrared thermometers are being shipped to popular vacation spots in the state. The thermometers will be used at testing clinics set up on the Great Ocean Road tourist drive and in the Victorian Alps ski area. Australia has had 104 COVID-19 deaths and nearly 7,600 confirmed cases.

21 cases confirmed in china in latest 24-hour period, including 17 in capital. city officials temporarily shut wholesale food market where virus spread widely. anyone leaving Beijing must have nucleic acid test within previous seven days. south Korea has reported 51 newly confirmed cases of coronavirus. s. australia is expecting more cases of COVID-19 as hundreds of nationals return from overseas to begin mandatory quarantine.

Negative

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/nifty-companies-ability-to-service-debt-comes-under-pressure/articleshow/76623811.cms

The economic slowdown aggravated by the nationwide lockdown has severely affected the ability of companies to service debt . According to the ET Intelligence Group’s analysis of the 32 of the Nifty 50 companies that have declared results so far excluding banking and finance companies, the aggregate interest coverage ratio for FY20 fell to a six year low of three after staying between four and six since FY15. The trend is expected to continue in the current fiscal given the expectations of contraction in the economic activities.The interest coverage ratio is calculated by dividing EBIT with the interest payment in a given period. A higher ratio is desirable since it implies a better ability to service the debt and also a greater comfort in borrowing more in the future.The fall was steeper on a quarterly basis. The ratio was at a 13-quarter low of 1.8 in the March 2020 quarter. It was at 3.9 a quarter ago. The contraction was on account of a steady rise in borrowings, which kept the interest payments buoyant despite falling lending rates in the economy, and a sharp drop in the operating profit (EBIT) during the quarter as companies went into a lockdown beginning from the last week of March to contain the COVID-19 spread. The interest expense of the sample increased by 15.6% while EBIT dropped by 52% year-on-year in the March 2020 quarter.Total net debt of the sample increased by 87% to Rs 24.5 lakh crore between FY15 and FY20 according to the data from Capitaline. The growth in revenue and profit before depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) was slower at 38% and 36% to Rs 27.5 lakh crore and Rs 3.3 lakh crore respectively.

the aggregate interest coverage ratio for FY20 fell to a six year low. the trend is expected to continue in the current fiscal. the fall was steeper on a quarterly basis. it was at a 13-quarter low of 1.8 in the March 2020 quarter. it was at 3.9 a quarter ago. the contraction was on account of a steady rise in borrowings.

Negative

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/aurobindo-ncc-rinfra-ultratech-among-46-stocks-signalling-downsides-on-macd/articleshow/69643533.cms

NEW DELHI: As the Nifty50 rules at all-time high, market breadth remains tepid, raising questions over the sustainability of the recent bounce.More and more midcap and smallcap stocks are signalling bearish trends than the ones sending out bullish signals, suggests MACD, or moving average convergence divergence.The momentum indicator signalled a bearish crossover – a sign of bearish undertone – on 46 counters, hinting at possible downsides.These stocks have been witnessing strong trading volumes of late, lending credence to the emerging trend.The list included many midcap and smallcap names, including Aurobindo Pharma , NCC, Reliance Infrastructure Repco Home Finance, Opto Circuits India, Sintex Plastics, SRF and Kwality.Mastek, Ujaas Energy, IPCA Labs, Parag Milk Foods, Man Industries, Simplex Infra, Minda Industries, Aarti Drugs and Gallant Ispat are a few other companies on the list.The MACD is known for signalling trend reversals in traded securities or indices. It is the difference between the 26-day and 12-day exponential moving averages.A nine-day exponential moving average, called the signal line, is plotted on top of the MACD to reflect ‘buy’ or ‘sell’ opportunities.When the MACD crosses above the signal line, it gives a bullish signal, indicating that the price of the security may see an upward movement and vice versa.Meanwhile, 10 stocks are showing bullish trends on NSE. The list included Havells India, Ajanta Pharma, Orient Refectories, Hatsun Agro and recently listed Chalet Hotels.The MACD indicator should not be seen in isolation, as it may not be sufficient to take a trading call, just the way a fundamental analyst cannot give a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation using a single valuation ratio.Traders should make use of other indicators such as Relative Strength Index (RSI), Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci Series, candlestick patterns and Stochastic to confirm an emerging trend.As for Nifty50, analysts maintain a positive stance, but believe weak market breadth could be a worry. Besides, some momentum oscillators suggest the stocks have become oversold.“The current chart pattern signals the possibility of a breakout of a recent upward range movement. But the overall market breadth was not impressive on Monday, with midcaps and smallcaps rising only marginally. The next upside range to watch out for is at 12,150-12,180,” said Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities.Sameet Chavan of Angel Broking expects ‘gravity defying’ moves in coming days despite some of the momentum oscillators being in the overbought territories.“Mind you, we may not see immediate declines in the market amid such strong trends. Hence, it’s better not to be sceptical about the recent upward move and keep participating in this rally by following a stock-centric approach,” he said.A close look at the stock chart of Aurobindo Pharma shows whenever the MACD line has breached below the signal line, the stock has shown an upward momentum and vice versa.On Tuesday, the scrip traded at Rs 653.80, down 0.46 per cent on NSE.

more midcap and smallcap stocks are signalling bearish trends than bullish signals. the momentum indicator signalled a bearish crossover on 46 counters. the list included many midcap and smallcap names, including Aurobindo Pharma. a nine-day exponential moving average is plotted on top of the MACD. when the MACD crosses above the signal line, it gives a bullish signal.

Negative

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/covid-19-frbm-framework-will-need-to-be-updated-says-former-cea-arvind-subramanian-5357021.html

Former chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian on June 3 said the FRBM Act will probably have to be revised by the end of the year as India will witness a sharp decline in GDP growth due to the COVID-19 crisis. Addressing a webinar organised by EY India, Subramanian further said while labour reforms were necessary, the way they have been done by some states have undermined basic protections to workers, especially in light of the migrant crisis. "It is going to be a very very difficult economic year. We should brace ourselves for a sharp decline in GDP growth. "We should also brace ourselves for the fact that India's deficit almost certainly will be double digit. India's fiscal situation is going to be very, very difficult," he said. Subramanian, currently a visiting professor at Harvard University, further said reviving the financial sector is going to be critical for stimulating economic growth. Talking about India's current macroeconomic situation amid the COVID-19 pandemic, he said the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act and terms of reference of the 15th Finance Commission will probably have to be revised and updated. "Compared to the Budget 2020-21, I think the facts have changed. We will probably have to revise, and update Budget numbers, the FRBM framework and the terms of reference of the 15th Finance Commission at the end of the year," Subramanian emphasised. The FRBM Act of 2003 seeks to reduce the country's fiscal deficit through financial discipline. He also pointed out that due to the Rs 20 lakh crore economic package announced by the government to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, India's debt-to-GDP will rise to 85 per cent. The eminent economist also noted that the pandemic in India is not under control. "Developing countries are much more vulnerable and have less fiscal space than advanced economies. Lockdown has been much more severe on developing countries," he said. Noting that India entered into lockdown when its economy was already slowing, Subramanian said, "It will take a lot of hard work for India to again start growing at 6 per cent." The former CEA also said the pandemic and the lockdown have made the case for Universal Basic Income (UBI) stronger. Talking about labour reforms, Subramanian said it is true that India's labour laws required change. "But these labour reforms have probably undermined basic protections which are absolutely critical," he said. In recent weeks, various state governments, including Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat, have either made amendments or proposed changes to existing labour laws as part of larger efforts to help businesses hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. Subramanian observed that it is not clear whether these kind of tweaks will be attractive enough for investors because they will say if things can be so drastically changed in one direction, then what is the guarantee that they will not be reversed equally suddenly? "I think... action like this may not generate the kind of long term trust and credibility in policy that are required to take advantage," he opined. He also said the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) needs some modifications as due to the coronavirus-induced lockdown many firms will go bankrupt. "We also need bad bank in select sectors," he added. Subramanian also pointed out that India must shed its protectionist attitude and become an exporting economy. "Unless India's exports grow at 15 per cent, we won't get 8 per cent growth. For that, we should reverse some of the protectionist measures taken. "If we turn protectionist, I don't know how can we be an exporting power. Self-sufficient exporting powerhouse is an oxymoron," he said. The former CEA also termed the Centre's decision to allow states to borrow 200 basis points more than their fiscal deficit ceiling as an 'IMF-like programme'. "In the height of a pandemic, putting such conditions may not be the right thing to do. Asking states to carry out power sector reforms is desirable but this may not be the right time," he argued.

former chief economic adviser says FRBM Act will probably have to be revised. he says the country will witness a sharp decline in GDP growth due to COVID-19. he also said the pandemic in india is not under control. he said reviving the financial sector is going to be critical for stimulating economic growth. he said the pandemic has made the case for universal basic income stronger.

Negative

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/marketsmoneycontrol-nifty-likely-to-open-flat-3-stocks-which-can-give-up-to-10-return-2531049.html

The Nifty50 is expected to open flat-to-lower on Monday tracking muted trend seen in other Asian markets. The Nifty50 closed 165 points lower at 10,195 on Friday. Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a negative opening for the broader index in India, a fall of 33.5 points or 0.33 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 10,200-level on the Singaporean Exchange. India VIX moved up by 6.21 percent at 15.22. Rise in volatility after the recent consolidation seen in the last five sessions has given an upper hand to bears which suggest more weakness. A fall in Put Call Ratio also points to the same direction. The S&P 500 and the Dow Industrials rose on Friday, boosted by strong industrial output numbers, though all three of Wall Street's major indexes posted losses for the week, Reuters reported. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 72.85 points, or 0.29 percent, to end the week at 24,946.51, the S&P 500 gained 4.68 points, or 0.17 percent, to 2,752.01 and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.25 point, or 0 percent, to 7,481.99. Asian markets were mixed early on Monday, with Australia's ASX 200 gaining early in the session and Japan's benchmark index trading just below the flat line. Japan's Nikkei 225 shed 0.12 percent in early trade and the Topix was lower by around the same level. South Korea's benchmark Kospi index slipped 0.12 percent, CNBC reported. Stocks in news: Action in the primary market space continues: Sandhar Technologies IPO to opens Automotive component supplier Sandhar Technologies will open its initial public offering for subscription on March 19 Key customers are Hero, TVS, Maruti, Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland etc. The company has fixed a price band at Rs 327-332 per share for the issue that will close on March 21. Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum may buy 26% stake each in GAIL A top source said since the government is not looking at actual merger of oil companies but only transfer of its ownership to a cash rich PSU, the best option would be to split the 54.89 percent holding in GAIL equally between IOC and BPCL. YES Bank: The company has said that Life Insurance Corporation has raised stake in firm By 2.03% To 9.62%. Technical Recommendations: Here’s what 5nance.com has to recommend: Coal India Ltd: SELL| Target Rs263 | Stop-loss Rs288 | Return 5% Vakrangee Ltd: BUY| Target Rs265 | Stop-loss Rs235 | Return 7% Adani Transmission Ltd: BUY| Target Rs. 210 | Stop-loss Rs179 | Return 10% Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on moneycontrol.com are his own, and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

the Nifty50 closed 165 points lower at 10,195 on friday. trend on SGX Nifty indicate a negative opening for the broader index in india. the S&P 500 and the Dow Industrials rose on friday, boosted by strong industrial output numbers. all three of Wall Street's major indexes posted losses for the week.

Negative

https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/coronavirus-fallout-unemployment-rate-spikes-to-23-after-lockdown-says-cmie/story/400349.html

The overall unemployment rate may have surged to 23 per cent, with urban unemployment standing at nearly 31 per cent, amid the countrywide lockdown due to coronavirus outbreak, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) estimates showed. The employment situation worsened from the start of March, before the lockdown was triggered, and then soared in the last week of the month and the first week of April 2020, CMIE data showed. While the overall unemployment rate spiked to 23.4 per cent, the urban unemployment rate soared to 30.9 per cent. "In March 2020, the labour participation rate fell to an all-time low, the unemployment rate shot up sharply and the employment rate fell to its all-time low," Mahesh Vyas, CEO, CMIE, said in an article on the website. Also read: Coronavirus: Companies assure employees of no layoffs as businesses take a hit Unemployment, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), is when persons above a specified age are not in paid employment or self-employment and currently available for work during the reference period. "The unemployment rate in March was 8.7%. This is the highest unemployment rate in 43 months...The unemployment rate during this last week [of March] was 23.8%. Labour participation rate fell to 39% and the employment rate was a mere 30%," Vyas added. India's unemployment rate surged to nearly 9 per cent, the highest in the last 43 months, according to CMIE data. The unemployment rate stood at 8.74 per cent in March, highest since August 2016 when demonetisation happened, CMIE data showed. In August 2016, the unemployment rate was 9.59 per cent. While the unemployment rate was recorded at 9.35 per cent in urban areas, it stood at 8.45 per cent in rural parts of the country, the data also showed. In February, it was recorded at 7.78 per cent. Meanwhile, India is under a 21-day lockdown currently until April 14. Also read: Coronavirus Live Updates: 354 COVID-19 positive cases in last 24 hours; India's active count at 3,981

overall unemployment rate surges to 23 per cent, with urban unemployment at nearly 31 per cent. india is under a 21-day lockdown due to coronavirus outbreak. unemployment rate surges to nearly 9 per cent, highest in last 43 months. CMIE: india's unemployment rate is at its highest level in 43 months. a spokesman for the government says it is preparing to launch a nationwide strike.

Negative

https://www.businesstoday.in/current/world/coronavirus-impact-zara-owners-shut-down-4000-stores-worldwide/story/398717.html

Popular apparel brand Zara's Spanish owners Inditex has shut down 3,785 stores worldwide amid the COVID-19 outbreak. Inditex warned that its operations have faced a 'very significant impact' due to the pandemic. It said it has been forced to shut down in 39 markets, according to a report by Metro. It said that it is too early to comment on the effect the virus will have in the future, but it is confident of its business model's strength and flexibility. Sales took a hit by 24.1% triggered by the closure of stores in the first two weeks of March. The company might book a provision of 287 million euros as its spring/summer inventory loses its value due to the coronavirus outbreak. Inditex postponed its decision on paying out a dividend till later this year. Inditex's largest network of stores is in Spain, but the company has shut all stores in the country due to a nation-wide lockdown by the Spanish government on Saturday. The company had reported a jump in both sales and earnings on January 31. The net sales increased by 8 per cent to 28.3 billion euros, boosted by a 23 per cent rise in online sales. The company's earnings, before tax and interests, increased to 7.6 billion euros from 5.5 billion euros in the previous year.

Inditex warns operations have faced'very significant impact' due to pandemic. sales took a hit by 24.1% triggered by the closure of stores in first two weeks of march. the company might book a provision of 287 million euros as its spring/summer inventory loses its value due to the outbreak. it postponed its decision on paying out a dividend till later this year.

Negative

https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/coronavirus-lockdown-indian-muslims-informal-economy-poor-middle-class-migrant-workers-labourers/story/401636.html

The 40-day socio-economic lockdown is more likely to knock the bottom out of Indian economy largely dependent on informal establishments and informal workforce. If 93% of the total workforce is informal, as the Economic Survey of 2018-19 said, this would mean a proportionate population is dependent on their income which is hit hard due to lockdown, enfeebling demand even further. No less than the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the champion of a market-driven economy, has come around to realise that "the poor and the middle class" are "the main engines of growth". One of its studies looked at data from 156 to 159 economies across most advanced, emerging markets and developing countries (EMDCs) for 1990-2012 and came to the conclusion that (a) rise in the income of the bottom 20% (the poor) drives GDP growth and (b) rise in the income of the top 20% (the rich) reduces GDP growth. This would mean that India needs to take better care of its urban migrants, most of whom seem to have lost their jobs, shelter and food and the rural landless and small or marginal farmers who are finding it difficult to harvest or sell their produce due to the lockdown. Also Read: Coronavirus Lockdown VII: What India can learn from COVID-19 hit nations Mandis are dysfunctional and so are procurement and rural job guarantee scheme (MGNREGS), deepening the crisis for the bottom pile of India's economy. While the plight of these segments of the informal economy has attracted public attention, however inadequate or ineffective, there is one more group that is equally vulnerable but remains completely below the radar, the Muslims. The Muslims are the largest minority community with a 12.7% share of the population, relying far more on the informal economy than any other socio-religious or religious groups, including the Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs), as official data demonstrates and yet, their plight remains unnoticed and unaddressed. Employment and livelihood deprivation of Muslims The Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) of 2017-18 released in 2019 shows that the Muslims have the lowest share in labour market among the major religious groups. Measured in terms of labour force participation rate (LFPR) and workforce participation rate (WPR), Muslims have the lowest scores. (LFPR is ratio of people in the labour force (employed + unemployed) to the total population, WPR is ratio of employed to the total population.) A comparison with the SCs and STs demonstrates that the Muslims are worse off than those too. Two caveats are in order here: (i) such comparison can be made because the Muslims don't have SC and ST (very negligible) population; identified as they officially are as either belonging to 'general' category or other backward castes (OBCs) and (ii) such comparisons have been made by official committees in the past, the last one being the Post Sachar Evaluation Committee (PSEC) which submitted its report in September 2014. What both the above graphs mean is that the Muslims are worse off in the labour market than any other socio-religious or religious group. That makes them more vulnerable than the rest. Also Read: Coronavirus Lockdown VI: How India's insurance-led private healthcare cripples its ability to fight COVID-19 This is not a new phenomenon. The PLFS of 2017-18 provides comparative data from earlier NSSO surveys of 2004-05, 2009-10 too showing the same result. In rural areas, the Muslims' WPR is lowest for all survey periods among the major religious groups. The same is true in urban areas too. The PSEC report of 2014, which mapped social, economic and educational progress of the Muslims since the Sachar Committee report of 2006, pointed at three main factors in its 2014 report: (a) relatively lower levels of education (b) absence of job reservations and (c) lowest level of women's participation in the labour force (FLFP) both in rural and urban areas vis-a-vis other major religious groups. Muslims' reliance on low productive self-employment The PSEC of 2014 collated socio-economic indicators for socio-religious groups from the NSSO surveys of 2004-05, 2009-19 and 2011-12 and showed that the Muslims had a higher share of informal jobs (self-employed), both in rural and urban areas and that a large number of urban households had shifted to lower productive (informal) employment. Prof. Amitabh Kundu of the Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), who headed this committee, explains, in rural areas, the Muslim women's participation in the workforce is very low (lowest among all socio-religious and religious groups), most Muslims are landless and depend on crafts and trade. In urban areas, they depend on self-employment (carpenters, masons, etc.) and very few of them are in government jobs or employed in large industries or high-skilled organised sector jobs. When it comes to consumption expenditure (another measure of economic status), his report says that in rural areas the Muslims have had a higher per capita expenditure than ST Hindus and SCs for the previous two decades because (i) they are outside agriculture and (ii) more dependent on small manufacturing and services activities that fetch higher than agricultural wages. In urban areas, their consumption level is the lowest, lower than that of the SCs and STs. Also Read: Coronavirus Lockdown V: Three ways govt can help farmers, migrant workers overcome the current crisis Poverty rate among Muslims Muslims also have a high percentage of the poor. The PSEC of 2014 did a comparative study of socio-religious groups for rural and urban areas using data from the NSSO surveys of 2004-05 and 2011-12. The findings are plotted in the following graphs. In rural areas, the Hindu STs were found to have the highest percentage of poor population, followed by Hindu SCs and Muslim OBCs. In urban areas, the Muslim OBCs had the highest poverty rate in 2004-05 and second highest in 2011-12. The PLFS of 2017-18 discontinued the practice of publishing a separate and detailed report for the religious groups and hence such a comparison can't be made now. PC Mohanan, who was chairman of the National Statistical Commission (NSC) when this survey report was cleared for publication in 2019, says a conscious decision was taken to limit the publication of only employment-related data, not other socio-economic indicators. However, that data is available to researchers. As a member of the PSEC of 2014 himself, Mohanan had recommended the need for more disaggregated data for socio-religious groups than what was available from the NSSO surveys of 2004-05, 2009-10 and 2011-12. That was because he felt more data was needed for properly addressing the problems associated with various religious minorities, including Muslims. Now even less data is being made available in public (from the 2017-18 survey). Also Read: Coronavirus Lockdown IV: How reverse migration will affect the informal economy as livelihood options dry up Threat of further marginalisation of Muslims Recently, several instances of religious discrimination and further marginalisation of the Muslims have come to notice. Media reports show many cases of vegetable vendors being asked to establish their religious identity, including by demanding their Aadhaar cards, and those found to be Muslims being forbidden to do business in Hindu areas. In others, Muslim women are being refused groceries because of their religion and street vendors carrying religious flags marking their religious segregation. Such incidents are not restricted to private domains. A government hospital of a state refused to admit a pregnant woman for being a Muslim, leading to delivery of the child in an ambulance and subsequent death of the child due to lack of medical attention. An inquiry is in progress. Another government hospital in a different state is accused of separating wards on religion lines for treating COVID-19 cases. These instances may seem disparate and isolated ones confined to some states, but the grave danger they pose to India's growth and development prospects is huge, nevertheless. Also Read: Coronavirus Lockdown III: Is India's public healthcare system prepared to fight the COVID-19 menace? Religious discrimination endangers economic prosperity too Here is a multi-disciplinary global study spanning 109 countries over a period of 100 years that show religious discrimination is bad for the economic health of a country. This study, 'Religious change preceded economic change in the 20th century', published in July 2018 by the researchers from Universities of Bristol (UK) and Tennessee (US), found that economic growth comes after secular polity, not the other way round. The following graph, taken from this study, demonstrates the secularisation graph leading the development graph (GDP). The inference is clear. Religious discrimination has the potential to de-rail far more than just social harmony and democratic order of a country. Also Read: Coronavirus Lockdown II: How serious could the impact be on Indian economy and GDP

a 40-day lockdown is likely to knock the bottom out of Indian economy. if 93% of the workforce is informal, this would mean a proportionate population is dependent on their income. a study by the imf found that the poor and the middle class are "the main engines of growth" a spokesman for the government said the government is working to improve the situation.

Negative

https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/human-capital-education-skills-what-does-wealth-of-nations-entail-in-the-21st-century/1180257/

The comprehensive definition of wealth for any nation entails social, human, institutional, produced and natural capital. Together, it measures the ‘wealth’ (inventory) for any nation. Has India fairly and sufficiently performed to realise the true potential of wealth creation to promise sustained endurance? Numerous studies (IMF; Bhalla S, The New Wealth of Nations; and World Bank) have discussed this macroeconomic concern, especially for developing and least developed nations since it forms the quintessential nucleus for the prospective growth and well-being of the economy at the macro level. In the same context, the concept of ‘social welfare’ is highly debated and largely remains misperceived. Still, GDP is considered to be the most popular proxy to depict and measure the magnitude of economic advancement by most nations. The paradox lies in the respective differing ideology behind wealth and GDP towards sustainability. It is often said that the challenge lies in not only to manage the asset volume portfolio, but also the constitution of the portfolio to require different types of capital like institutions, governance; in short, the social intangible capital (labour efficiency). Unfortunately, the RBI KLEMS database depicts somewhat reverse statistics on labour productivity average growth in India from 2011-12 to 2015-16 vis-a-vis preceding five years. Hence, while the nation as a whole is undergoing structural changeover, the true potential is far from its true realisation. Has India adequately spent in the last few decades to govern its social intangible capital optimally? Development of an economy not just includes the increase in the wealth, but also the compositional shifts in the comprehensive definition of wealth. As per the recent report by the World Economic Forum, the Global Human Capital Index (GHCI) score for India is nowhere close to the top performer (Norway) to ensure long-term perpetual success. India scores 55.29 (ranked 103rd place, slight improvement over previous year), much lesser than the Norwegian GHCI score at 77.12 (ranked first), despite of India’s out-performance among South Asian nations. As a consequence, the same has led to inequitable distribution leading to poorest country’s share of wealth to less than 1% of total global wealth. To develop, the measure of wealth (rather an intangible component of wealth) could not be discounted. Is Indian network society set to pave the way for the prospective human wealth base? India is considered to be the Asian powerhouse on most of the key macro fundamentals, still human capital developmental issues prove to be the paradox of plenty. While technology has essentially witnessed a subsequent proliferation in capital intensity, yet overall it has not squeezed aggregate employment in Indian service-based industries. At the same time, the shift from primary and secondary sectors towards tertiary may not be a constructive transition for India in the long run. The same may prove to be detrimental in labour productivity and per capita income levels. Rather, network society could contribute to economic growth through different mediums like production and investment mediums. Production medium shall definitely be benefiting the factor productivity growth (labour) through rapid technological change. We are strong supporters and primary adopters of technology, but sometimes we ponder whether the inescapable assimilation of technology in our lives could moderate our classic human capacities, such as compassion and cooperation. Only through a skilled manpower base a country like India can ensure inclusion and innovation that could scale up the macroeconomic platform to relish the prospective digital technologies and dividends. Surprisingly, India’s (the government’s) digital adoption index (World Bank 2016 report) is the highest among South Asian nations from people, business and government arms. The same leaves a scope for people and business arms to attain the potential for the betterment of economic development by strengthening the job base. Today’s think tanks are usually confined to conventional philosophy or are too engrossed by the multiplicity of demanding situations, so as to contemplate tactically on the disruptional innovative forces that will build the future. Information without accountability can prove to be disastrous. Ultimately, it all comes down to human resources and their values that will serve as the underlying foundation for the changing wealth of nations. The best way forward is to place personnel first and then empower them. As suggested by the World Economic Outlook and Economic Survey 2014-15, skill development and skill premium shall be of prime focus to reap demographic dividends. Policies should be enforced at sectoral, national and global level so as to deal with the competition simultaneously through appropriate regulatory mechanisms and public-private tie-ups to enjoy the benefits of factor productivity comparative advantage. The productivity gains should be made more inclusive to make it comparable (if not at par) with developed nations like the US and Germany. The IT revolution is undeniably capable of robotising mankind by depriving its heart and soul in its most dehumanised expression. Nonetheless, as an adjunct to the finest traits of human nature—empathy, stewardship, creativity—it can also uplift mankind into a pristine unified and moral consciousness grounded on a mutual sense of destiny. It is our moral duty to ensure that the latter subsists. Megha Jain & Aishwarya Nagpal, Senior Research Fellows at FMS, University of Delhi

the global human capital index (GHCI) score for India is nowhere close to the top performer (Norway) to ensure long-term perpetual success. the paradox lies in the respective differing ideology behind wealth and GDP towards sustainability. the global human capital index (GHCI) score for India is nowhere close to the top performer (norway) to ensure long-term perpetual success.

Negative

https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/covid-19-aftermath-in-2-months-124-million-jobs-lost/1987737/

The economy lost 124 million jobs in March and April, primarily in the informal sectors comprising small traders and wage labourers; employment was also lower in self-owned businesses and salaried employees, too, lost jobs. With the lockdown curbs being eased, the economy is estimated to have added 21 million jobs in May, mainly in occupations that were hit the most: small traders & wage labourers and businesses. However, salaried employees continued to experience job losses.

the economy lost 124 million jobs in march and April. the economy is estimated to have added 21 million jobs in may. the economy is estimated to have added 21 million jobs in the month. the economy is estimated to have added 21 million jobs in the month. a spokesman for the government says the economy is "still in a bind".

Negative

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world/coronavirus-pandemic-us-crude-falls-below-15-a-barrel-as-virus-throttles-demand-5165171.html

Representative Image US crude crashed to below $15 a barrel on Monday, its lowest level for over two decades, as concerns about a virus-triggered demand shock and lack of storage eclipsed an output cut deal. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark, fell more than 19 per cent to $14.73 a barrel in early Asian trade before markets steadied and it clawed back some ground to $15.78 a barrel. International benchmark Brent dropped 4.1 per cent to $26.93 a barrel, before rising and stabilising at $28.11. Oil markets have plunged in recent weeks as lockdowns and travel restrictions to fight the coronavirus around the world batter demand for the commodity. The crisis was compounded after Saudi Arabia, the kingpin of exporting group OPEC, launched a price war with non-OPEC member Russia. Riyadh and Moscow drew a line under their dispute earlier this month when they and other countries agreed to cut output by almost 10 million barrels a day to boost virus-hit markets. But prices have continued to fall heavily, with analysts saying the cuts will not be enough to make up for massive falls in demand caused by the pandemic. WTI was hit particularly hard on Monday as analysts said there were concerns that its main storage facilities in the United States were filling up. Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist with CMC Markets, said the plunge in WTI "reflects a glut" at the US facility in Cushing, Oklahoma. The benchmark has now "decoupled" from Brent "with the spread between the two reaching a decade high", he said in a note. ANZ added in a note that "crude oil prices remained under pressure, as projections of weaker demand weigh on sentiment". "Despite the OPEC+ alliance agreeing to an unprecedented cut in output, the physical market is awash with oil," it said, referring to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC partners. "Concern continues to mount that storage facilities in the US will run out of capacity." The US Energy Information Administration said crude inventories in the world's biggest economy rose by 19.25 million barrels last week, adding to the woes of the oversupplied world market. Follow our full coverage of the coronavirus pandemic here.

crude prices fall as fears over virus-triggered demand shock eclipse output cut deal. oil markets plunge as travel restrictions and lockdowns batter demand for the commodity. OPEC and other countries agreed to cut output by almost 10 million barrels a day. but prices have continued to fall heavily as prices continue to fall. a u.s. crude benchmark falls more than 19 per cent to $14.73 a barrel.

Negative

https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/sme/sachin-bansal-says-productive-people-cant-wait-for-vaccine-to-tap-into-opportunities-suggests-this/1943595/

Sachin Bansal, former chief executive and co-founder of now Walmart-owned Flipkart, on Wednesday stressing on the need “to open up the economy” with the slowdown in Covid growth, said that people who want to move out for work should be allowed with necessary precautions in place. Bansal tweeted that people would have to learn to live with the virus as “We can’t lock ourselves up for 2 years in homes waiting for a vaccine. India can’t make use of the opportunities if our most productive people are locked in their homes.” “Whoever wants to stay at home can stay. And for folks who are venturing out should maintain precautions but allowed to work if they wish to,” he said. Bansal’s comments come amid economies globally reel under the Covid impact. The World Bank had earlier this month in its South Asia Economic Focus Spring 2020 report had said India’s GDP is expected to range between 1.5 and 2.8 per cent in the current financial year. “This would come after already disappointing growth rates in previous years. The green shoots of a rebound that were observable at the end of 2019 have been overtaken by the negative impacts of the global crisis,” the report noted. This is likely to be the slowest growth since the 1991 economic liberalisation. Read Coronavirus in India Latest News Updates (LIVE): Coronavirus Latest Updates: Use Plasma therapy for trial only, it can be life-threatening, says Centre The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also cut its growth projections for India from 5.8 per cent projected in January to 1.9 per cent for the new financial year 2020-21. The global economy is also likely to contract by 3 per cent due to the Coronavirus. The country has been under lockdown since March 24 that as the Covid-19 cases have continued to surge even as the rate of increase in cases has slowed down. The total cases, as per the government data, have shot up to nearly 30,000 with over 1,000 deaths while close to 7,800 patients have been cured. Interestingly, as per the predictions from the Data Driven Innovation Lab (DDI), Singapore University of Technology and Design, 97 per cent of Coronavirus is likely to end by May 21 and 99 per cent by May 31 next month. The rate at which Covid cases is doubling, according to the government, has slowed down from three days before the lockdown to 10 days.

former chief executive and co-founder of now Walmart-owned Flipkart, said people who want to move out for work should be allowed with necessary precautions in place. he tweeted that people would have to learn to live with the virus. the comments come amid economies globally reel under the covid impact. the world bank had earlier this month said India’s GDP is expected to range between 1.5 and 2.8% in the current financial year.

Negative

https://www.financialexpress.com/lifestyle/health/covid-19-financial-services-department-under-finance-ministry-sealed-for-sanitisation-after-coronavirus-cases/2003027/

The office of Department of Financial Services (DFS) under the Finance Ministry has been sealed for one day for sanitisation following positive COVID-19 cases. According to an office memorandum issued on Wednesday, the deep-cleaning or sanitisation will be done on June 25. The action has been necessitated on account of numerous officers and staff members of the DFS testing positive for the infection. Earlier this month, the Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (DIPAM) was sealed as Secretary Tuhin Kanta Pandey was tested positive for coronavirus infection. The DFS, which is in Jeevan Deep Building on Parliament Street, is the administrative department for public sector financial institutions including banks and insurance. The officers and staff are requested to be available online, the memorandum said. The DFS is playing a pivotal role in implementing Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana and Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan Yojana to help poor people and bring the economy back on track. Many buildings in the vicinity including NITI Aayog, Shram Shakti Bhawan, Shastri Bhawan Rail Bhawan, Udyog Bhawan, and Air India office were sealed temporarily in the past for sanitisation after COVID-19 cases.

the deep-cleaning or sanitisation will be done on June 25. several officers and staff members of the DFS tested positive for the infection. the department is playing a pivotal role in implementing a new program. the department is playing a pivotal role in bringing the economy back on track. the department is playing a pivotal role in bringing the economy back on track.

Negative

https://www.financialexpress.com/market/commodities/oil-prices-up-on-us-china-trade-talk-hopes-opec-cuts/1437607/

Oil prices rose on Tuesday, supported by hopes that talks in Beijing between U.S. and Chinese officials might defuse a trade dispute between the world’s two biggest economies, while OPEC-led supply cuts also tightened markets. Brent crude futures gained 69 cents, or 1.22 percent, to $58.02 per barrel by 1325 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures climbed 59 cents, 1.22 percent, to $49.11 per barrel. U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Monday that there was a “very good chance” of reaching a settlement, while China’s Foreign Ministry said Beijing had the “good faith” to resolve trade friction with the United States. Some analysts warned, however, that the relationship between the superpowers remained shaky and tensions could flare anew. “Surely, there will be more twists and turns in the saga and increasing U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods after March from 10 percent to 25 percent cannot be excluded,” Tamas Varga of PVM Oil Associates said. “For now, however, optimism prevails.” There is also concern that a worldwide economic slowdown will dent fuel consumption, leading the hedge fund industry to cut significantly its bullish positions in crude futures. S&P Global Ratings said it had lowered its average oil price forecasts for 2019 by $10 per barrel to $55 and $50 per barrel for Brent and WTI, respectively. “Our lower oil price assumptions reflect slowing demand and rising supply globally,” said S&P Global Ratings analyst Danny Huang. OPEC VS SHALE Crude prices so far in 2019 have been buoyed by supply cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries including top exporter Saudi Arabia, as well as non-member Russia. Saudi-based Arab Petroleum Investments Corp, a firm specialising in funding petroleum projects, estimated in a report on Tuesday that oil prices are likely to trade at $60 to $70 per barrel by mid-2019. But looming over the OPEC-led cuts is a surge in U.S. oil supply – now the world’s top producer – driven by a steep rise in onshore shale drilling. As a result, U.S. crude oil production <C-OUT-T-EIA> rose by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) last year to a world record 11.7 million bpd. With drilling activity still high, most analysts expect U.S. oil production to rise further this year. Consultancy JBC Energy said it was likely that U.S. crude production was “significantly above 12 million bpd” by early January.

crude oil futures gained 69 cents, or 1.22 percent, to $58.02 per barrel. OPEC-led supply cuts also tightened markets. some analysts warn that the relationship between the superpowers remained shaky. looming over the OPEC-led cuts is a surge in U.S. oil supply.

Negative

https://www.businesstoday.in/podcast/bulletin/prime-minister-narendra-modi-thinks-of-opting-out-of-social-media/397396.html

03 Mar 2020, 12:03 PM Vistara planning to enter bidding race for Air India, says Chairman Bhaskar Bhat Vistara, a joint venture between Tata Sons and Singapore Airlines, is planning to bid for Air India, but a final decision on the matter has not been taken yet, said company's chairman Bhaskar Bhat. Responding to a question whether Vistara was interested in Air India, Bhat told PTI: "Which company would not be interested in evaluating a sovereign airline of the country?" There is buzz in the market that the Tata Group, which founded Air India 87 years ago, may bid for the airline put up for sale by the government. Gautam Adani-led Adani Group may join the race to buy state-owned Air India. Two new COVID-19 cases confirmed in Delhi, Telangana India got worried yesterday as two cases of COVID-19 or novel coronavirus were detected in New Delhi and Telangana, the government confirmed on Monday. The patients had travelled to Italy and Dubai before they were tested positive. So far, no official vaccination has been developed for the deadly coronavirus. These are the first confirmed positive coronavirus cases in both Delhi and Telangana. World economy may shrink because of coronavirus, says OECD A global agency says the spreading new virus could make the world economy shrink this quarter, for the first time since the international financial crisis more than a decade ago. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development says Monday in a special report on the impact of the virus that the world economy is still expected to grow overall this year and rebound next year. But it lowered its forecasts for global growth in 2020 by half a percentage point, to 2.4 per cent. WHO debuts on TikTok to quell fake information on coronavirus The World Health Organisation (WHO) has joined TikTok, in an effort to spread accurate information about coronavirus (COVID-19) . The mobile-video app is flooded with memes and false information about coronavirus. Some TikTok users have reportedly pretended to be infected with the deadly disease. WHO, a specialised public health agency of the United Nations, has posted two TikTok videos about "How to protect yourself from the coronavirus" on Monday. Travel companies stop hiring, defer increments over coronavirus Coronavirus: The travel industry globally has been hit hard due to the coronavirus spread as countries have restricted movement to areas that have been severely affected. The impact of coronavirus on the travel sector has led to firms halting recruitments and deferring increments of its employees. Bookings for South-East Asia have taken a hit. Travel firms believe that there would be further cancellations as the virus has spread even to Europe. Narendra Modi says thinking of giving up Facebook, Twitter; also, YouTube, Instagram Prime Minister Narendra Modi has announced that he will give up his social media accounts on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and YouTube. One of the most followed global leaders on social media, Modi is fairly active on social media and posts frequently on his Instagram and Twitter handles. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, known for reaching out to masses through social media, is the first Indian to have over 50 million followers on Twitter. Taking a jibe at PM Modi's plan, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi suggested him to give up hatred, rather than social media accounts.

two cases of COVID-19 detected in new Delhi and Telangana. OECD says world economy could shrink this quarter. world health organisation joins in effort to spread accurate information. tiktok users reportedly pretended to be infected with deadly disease. a total of 1.2 million people have been infected with the virus.

Negative

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/with-economy-sinking-trumps-own-business-is-in-peril/articleshow/74816966.cms

As if presiding over the threatened destruction of the US economy by the coronavirus pandemic is not enough, President Donald Trump is watching another more personal business meltdown: the Trump Organization hotel, golf course and real estate business that made him a billionaire.His five-star US and Canadian hotels with more than 2,200 rooms are mostly empty, his golf courses in the United States, Scotland and Ireland are under pressure to close, and his cherished "Southern White House" -- the beach-front Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida is shuttered.Like other hotels around the world, Trump's have been forced to lay off most workers -- and face the fact that the $435 million in revenues that the Trump Organization reported in 2018 is likely to plummet this year.How severe that would be to a family-controlled business notoriously untransparent about its finances is unknown.And it has raised questions over whether Trump's concerns about his own company are shaping his response to the crisis: whether part of the giant $2 trillion economic rescue plan agreed overnight Tuesday in Congress will end up helping his hotel and resort businesses, and whether his push for a quick end to the coronavirus lockdown is to save the company."Our country -- it's not built to shut down," Trump said Tuesday, calling for an end to restrictions by the second week of April. "You can destroy a country this way by closing it down." Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer said Wednesday that the economic rescue package won't be used to support Trump companies."We wrote a provision, not just the president but any major figure in government, cabinet, Senate, congressman, if they or their family have majority (of a company), they can't get grants or loans," he told CNN.Neither Trump nor his sons who directly oversee the company have detailed the financial damage they face.But it is clear: the nameplate hotels in New York , Washington, Chicago, Las Vegas, Vancouver and Hawaii are virtually empty.Likewise, his golf resorts are being ordered to lock up, even in remote Scotland. On Monday the Scottish Golf organization urged "all golfers in Scotland refrain from golfing until further notice." "It's hurting me and it's hurting Hilton and it's hurting all of the great hotel chains all over the world," Trump said Saturday.Yet the Trump Organization refuses to completely shut his main hotels."The hotel is open, the restaurants are closed, the spa is closed, the pool is closed," a receptionist at the Trump International Hotel & Tower on Central Park in New York told AFP, not giving her name."There's a Whole Foods across the street. We can get something for you and bring it to your room," she suggested.John Boardman, head of the Washington branch of the Unite Here labor union, said the Trump International in Washington was still operating despite sweeping staff layoffs."It doesn't make sense for them to stay open. The hotel has like three percent occupancy," said Boardman."He may not be shutting it down just to be able to say they are still operating."Since entering office, Trump has fended off pressure and lawsuits that alleged he was profiting from his properties while president.Business executives, diplomats and Middle Eastern kings seeking his favor stayed at his hotels, especially the Trump International just blocks from the White House.The Washington Post has reported on the huge amounts Saudis have paid to book up Trump hotel wings, and the high rates he charges his own Secret Service contingent when he travels to his own properties, including tens of thousands of dollars for golf carts.Several lawsuits have accused him of profiteering from his office -- against the US constitution's "emoluments" clause -- but none have stuck.But now much of that is moot, with the spread of COVID-19 forcing the country's hotel industry into crisis. Last week the industry, which provides jobs for some eight million people, asked the White House for $150 billion in support.Many were wondering whether part of the bailout -- a proposed $500 billion discretionary fund to support businesses that will be run by the US Treasury without public reporting -- would be deployed to aid Trump's hotels along with the rest of the industry."Now more than ever, it is crucial that the American people know that the president is acting in the public's best interest and not for his own personal financial gain," Elizabeth Wydra, president of the Constitutional Accountability Center, said.

president's hotel, golf course and real estate business is under threat of closure. he's ordered to close, and his golf courses in the u.s., Scotland and Ireland are under lockdown. a spokesman for the company says it is "very concerned" about the economic impact. a spokesman for the company says it is "very concerned" about the economic impact.

Negative

https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/coronavirus-blow-to-india-diamond-industry-icra-downgrades-outlook-amid-weak-demand/story/396608.html

Rating agency ICRA has revised its outlook for Indian cut and polished diamond industry from stable to negative in the light of coronavirus pandemic and weak demand in key markets. The downgrade in outlook comes as parts of China and Hong Kong remain under lockdown due to the deadly virus outbreak. The ratings agency pointed out that China and Hong Kong (C&HK) region accounts for 14-15 per cent of global demand of cut and polished diamonds. Industry estimates show that the region accounts for 35 per cent of India's overall cut and polished diamond (CPD) exports. China is a major market as it not only consumes imported diamonds locally, but also produces diamond studded jewellery and exports the same to the US, South East Asia and other markets in a big way, ICRA said. The export of polished diamonds to China is largely routed through Hong Kong, which is a major global diamond trading hub alongside Belgium and the United Arab Emirates, the ratings agency further added. ALSO READ: Global GDP to dip 1 percentage point if coronavirus containment delayed beyond June: report The cut and polished diamond industry has been feeling the heat due to ongoing trade and political tensions between China and the United States. Matters have taken a turn for the worse with economic shutdown due to coronavirus outbreak, which "occurred during the busiest period for jewellery sales in China - the peak of the festive Lunar New Year extending from January 25 to February 08, 2020", ICRA said. "Apart from recent developments in China, the CPD industry had been going through weak demand conditions in key markets and pressure on gross margins due to declining finished prices. If the business lockdown continues in C&HK, industry pressure will aggravate thereby impacting cash flows. This can have a serious bearing, especially given the cautious lending to the sector and; potentially impact CPD players' credit profile," said Jay Seth, Vice President, Corporate Ratings, ICRA Limited. "The pandemic in China will also hit near-term global demand for CPD and the widespread economic shutdown in C&HK region which will further delay demand recovery," he further added. ALSO READ: Coronavirus: Manufacturers face logistical challenges as China moves back to normalcy CPD exports from India are down 17.6 per cent Y-o-Y during 9M FY2020 on account of the trade and political tensions and subdued macro-economic environment in markets other than the US. And now with potential adverse coronavirus impact, exports are likely to remain weak in current fiscal, ICRA said. The cash flows of CPD companies will be also impacted due to delay in collections and inventory build-up. Most of them avail pre-shipment or post shipment credit (export bills discounting of tenor upto 120-150 days) from banks to fund their working capital requirements, the ratings agency said. The impact on companies' liquidity will become evident as more bills come overdue during the second half of February and March, if the amount is significant, it further added. "Receivables delay from C&HK region beyond a reasonable time will mean companies will have to make good the payment out of their funds which in turn could pressurise their liquidity position," ICRA said. On the positive side, Indian CPD companies could fulfil the demand for diamond studded jewellery in key markets as China and Hong Kong remain under lockdown. However, the industry would face elevated inventory levels if the shutdown continues till April, the report cautioned. ALSO READ: New coronavirus cases drop in China but dangers remain

ICRA downgrades outlook for cut and polished diamond industry from stable to negative. downgrade comes as parts of China and Hong Kong remain under lockdown. industry estimates show that the region accounts for 35 per cent of India's overall cut and polished diamond (CPD) exports. china is a major market as it consumes imported diamonds locally. the export of polished diamonds to china is largely routed through Hong Kong.

Negative

https://www.financialexpress.com/auto/industry/coronavirus-pandemic-2020-beijing-motor-show-postponed-to-new-dates-in-september/1923821/

The 2020 Beijing Motor Show that was scheduled to be held April has been used to a later date in September due to the coronavirus outbreak. The 2020 Beijing Motor Show has been postponed till September-October 2020 due to the coronavirus outbreak. The international automotive show in China was scheduled to be held between April 21-30 but has now been announced to have been pushed to a later date. The new dates released by the organisers state that the event will be held from September 26 to October 5, 2020. An official statement issued by the organisers, China Council for the Promotion of International Trade said “In light of the serious challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, after close consultation with the relevant parties, we, on behalf of the Organizing Committee of the 2020 (16th) Beijing International Automobile Exhibition (AUTO CHINA 2020), have decided to postpone the auto show which was initially planned at the new and old venues of China International Exhibition Center (CIEC) in April this year so as to effectively protect the health and safety of exhibitors and spectators. The AUTO CHINA 2020 is rescheduled to the following date — September 26 to October 5, 2020. The new CIEC venue mainly displays passenger cars and commercial vehicles at home and abroad with a full exhibition period, while the old CIEC pavilions are largely reserved for domestic and international auto parts and new energy vehicles with the exhibition duration of September 28-30, 2020.” The coronavirus outbreak had earlier forced the Geneva Motor Show in Europe, and the Detroit and New York Motor Shows in the United States of America to be cancelled entirely for the year. The outbreak has not only impacted the global automotive industry gravely but the global economy as a whole. Many automakers around the world have halted their production and some have temporarily shifted focus to manufacture ventilators and protective equipment to help the healthcare industry. The Chinese economy was also heavily impacted by the outbreak of the virus after it originated from the Wuhan province.

the 2020 Beijing Motor Show has been pushed to a later date due to the coronavirus outbreak. the international automotive show in china was scheduled to be held between April 21-30. the new dates released by the organisers state that the event will be held from September 26 to October 5, 2020. the outbreak has not only impacted the global automotive industry gravely but the global economy as a whole.

Negative

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/news/crude-oil-prices-rise-on-hopes-opec-will-agree-on-supply-cuts/articleshow/75063688.cms

since 2009, a signal that traders are worried that the US would run out of most onshore storage in a matter of weeks, traders said. Connect with Experts - Wealth creation made easy NEW YORK: Oil prices tumbled on Thursday on doubts that a deal between OPEC and allies to make a record oil supply cut would be enough to offset the collapse in global fuel demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, agreed to cut output by 10 million barrels per day from May, the group said in a statement.Before the coronavirus outbreak hit global transportation and economic activity, 10 million bpd was about 10 per cent of global supply.OPEC+ expects other producers including the United States to cut another 5 million bpd. But Washington has not offered to participate, and even if it did, the combined reduction in supply would be about half the 30 per cent worldwide fall in demandBrent futures fell $1.36, or 4.1 per cent, to settle at $31.48 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate ( WTI ) crude dropped $2.33, or 9.3 per cent, to settle at $22.76."The collapse in oil prices is a result of the reality that while OPEC is cutting as expected, there is simply too much crude in the physical space for sale, with too few pipelines to move it and too few buyers to take it," said Scott Shelton, energy specialist at United ICAP.OPEC+ had considered curbs as great as 15 million to 20 million barrels per day (bpd), or 15 per cent to 20 per cent of global supplies. The possibility of deeper cuts sent oil prices surging nearly 10 per cent early in the day.However, OPEC said it would ease output cuts between July and December to 8 million bpd and to 6 million barrels between January 2021 to April 2022."A lot of hope got priced into this market over the past several days," said John Kilduff, partner at hedge fund Again Capital LLC.OPEC+ said it would hold another video conference meeting on June 10, to assess the market. Energy ministers from the Group of 20 (G20) major economies are set to meet on Friday."We are expecting other producers outside the OPEC+ club to join the measures, which might happen tomorrow during G20," the head of Russia's wealth fund and one of Moscow's top oil negotiators, Kirill Dmitriev, told Reuters.A cut of 10 million bpd would be the biggest ever agreed by OPEC, but Russia has insisted it will only reduce output if the United States joins the deal.Canada and Brazil are cutting output now due to market forces, but Jason Kenney, premier of Alberta, Canada's largest producing province, said it has already done its part.The United States has not said it will mandate output reductions. Instead, it has noted that market forces are already causing producers to pull back, as it expects its output to fall by nearly 2 million bpd by next year.US oil rigs in operation dropped by 58 this week to 504, the lowest level since December 2016.The last OPEC meeting in early March ended acrimoniously, with Russia and Saudi Arabia unable to come to an agreement to curb output as the virus spread, adding to the slump in prices.Meanwhile, the US contract expiring in June rose to its highest premium over the front month

OPEC+ agreed to cut output by 10 million barrels per day from may. a record cut would offset the collapse in global fuel demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic. a deal would ease curbs between July and December to 8 million bpd and 6 million barrels between January 2021 and April 2022. a u.s. crude futures contract fell 4.1 per cent to settle at $22.76 a barrel.

Negative

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/world-economy-what-else-could-go-wrong-before-2020-is-done-11599394222543.html

The world economy’s rebound from the depths of the coronavirus crisis is fading, setting up an uncertain finish to the year. The concerns are multiple. The coming northern winter may trigger another wave of the virus as the wait for a vaccine continues. Government support for furloughed workers and bank moratoriums on loan repayments are set to expire. Strains between the US and China could get worse in the run-up to November’s presidential election, and undermine business confidence. “We have seen peak rebound," Joachim Fels, global economic adviser at Pacific Investment Management Co., told Bloomberg Television. “From now on, the momentum is fading a little bit." View Full Image Graphic: Bloomberg That sets up a delicate balancing act for governments. They’ve injected almost $20 trillion in fiscal and monetary support, in an effort to get the economy as far back to normal as is feasible in a pandemic, and can point to plenty of successes. In the US, unemployment fell sharply in August and the housing market has been a bright spot. China’s steady recovery is cited by optimists as a guide to where the rest of the world is headed, while Germany is posting some decent industrial data too. And emerging markets are getting a breather from the dollar’s decline. Long slog But keeping up the momentum on all these fronts won’t be easy. It would likely require policy makers to top up their stimulus efforts, at a point when some are looking to cut back instead. And for all the scientific progress with vaccines, they won’t be available anytime soon on the scale needed to bring the virus under tight control -- a key condition for business-as-usual. Meanwhile, there are headwinds. On labor markets, for example, government aid helped to drive an initial rebound -- which may have been the easy part. Next up is the long slog of retooling businesses, reallocating resources, and retraining workers in industries that are no longer viable. That kind of restructuring could play out for some time. Already this month, some of the world’s best known industrial brands have signaled job cuts are on the way. AP Moller-Maersk A/S is planning a major overhaul that’s set to affect thousands at the world’s biggest container shipping company. Ford Motor Co. is cutting about 5% of its US salaried workers, and United Airlines Holdings Inc. will eliminate 16,000 jobs next month as it shrinks operations. View Full Image Graphic: Bloomberg There are other worrying signs too. In China, which contained the virus months ago, consumers remain reluctant to spend and the nation’s biggest banks just posted their worst profit declines in more than a decade as bad debt ballooned. US lawmakers continue to haggle over more fiscal stimulus, which may be needed to sustain the recovery in the world’s largest economy. Adding 1.4 million jobs in August was “a big step in the right direction," said Ryan Sweet, head of monetary policy research at Moody’s Analytics. But the economy needs to maintain that kind of pace, he said, and “without fiscal stimulus that will be hard to do." ‘Not looking good’ In Europe, gauges of activity are fading, and factories are trying to cut costs as weak demand and price cuts squeeze profit margins. While France and Germany have extended their furlough programs, the U.K. plans to end its version in October, potentially putting millions of jobs at risk. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who announced his resignation last month on health grounds, warned in a press conference that “winter is coming" and the nation will need to gird to contain the virus. What Bloomberg’s Economists Say “High-frequency data paints a picture of a rapid rebound in the second quarter, and a stall - with activity still well short of pre-virus levels - in the third. There’s scope for further gains. If the U.S. did as well as Germany at containing the virus and getting back to work - for example - that would be a significant positive. To get back to pre-virus normality, a vaccine is required." --Tom Orlik, chief economist. Read more here Stock markets are vulnerable to disappointment in economic numbers in the coming months amid a gradual curbing of emergency fiscal support. “In terms of valuations, we’ve got to look beyond just what happened this week to the longer term," said Catherine Mann, global chief economist at Citigroup Inc. “And the longer term is not looking good right now in terms of support for consumption, and therefore business investment and growth in the U.S. economy." Overshadowing everything is the continued spread of the virus, with flare-ups around the world. Even when a vaccine is devised, making it available worldwide on the necessary scale is going to take time, according to Warwick McKibbin of the Brookings Institution and Australia National University. His models suggest that the virus could cost the world economy some $35 trillion through 2025. “You have to get quite a lot of the population vaccinated before the economic costs start to come down," he said. Milestone Alert!Livemint tops charts as the fastest growing news website in the world 🌏 Click here to know more.

the world economy's rebound from the depths of the coronavirus crisis is fading. the coming northern winter may trigger another wave of the virus. government support for furloughed workers and bank moratoriums on loan repayments are set to expire. the u.s. and china could get worse in the run-up to the presidential election.

Negative

https://www.financialexpress.com/market/commodities/gold-prices-rise-as-us-china-tension-coronavirus-cases-spike-still-down-rs-1000-from-record-high/1970755/

Gold and silver prices ticked up in Tuesday’s session on the back of a sharp rise in coronavirus cases which triggered investors to rush to safe-haven assets. Besides, escalation in US-China trade tension also increased gold demand. On MCX, gold June futures were up 0.28 per cent or Rs 132 at Rs 47,105 per 10 grams. While silver July futures advanced 1.39 per cent or Rs 670 to Rs 48,927 per kg. Despite today’s gain, gold prices are still Rs 1,000 off from a record high of Rs 47,929 per 10 grams. “Lingering geopolitical tensions like the US-China cold war and Iran-Venezuela oil trade amid US sanctions are likely to boost the yellow metal prices,” said Hareesh V- Head Commodity Research at Geojit Financial Services. “Meanwhile, reopening the global economy and gains in equities are likely to offset major rallies in the counter,” he added. The total number of coronavirus cases in India witnessed a sharp spike of 6,535 new cases and 146 deaths. The total number of cases in the country now stands at 1,45,380 and the death toll has reached 4,167. “As long as prices stay above $1710, broad trend will remain on the positive side. However, a direct drop below $1665 is a signal of weakness,” Hareesh said. Globally, gold ticked higher on Tuesday as brewing Sino-U.S. tensions over Hong Kong lifted demand for the safe-haven metal, though easing coronavirus-induced lockdown restrictions supported equities and capped bullion’s gain, according to Reuters. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1,732.38 per ounce. US gold futures were down 0.1 per cent to $1,733.50. Among other precious metals, palladium gained 1.1% to $2,013.98 per ounce, platinum added 1.3% at $849.32, and silver rose 0.8% to $17.34. “Market participants will keep an eye on the US consumer confidence data scheduled later today; a weaker than expected number could lend support to gold prices,” said Navneet Damani, VP, Motilal Oswal. “Broader trend on COMEX could be in the range of $1720-1770 and on domestic front prices could hover in the range of Rs 46,650-47,450,” Damani added. Meanwhile, the domestic equity market benchmarks were trading with gains on Tuesday. BSE Sensex was trading at 30,825.03, up 152.44 points or 0.50 per cent while the broader Nifty 50 was ruling 49 points or 0.54 per cent down at 9,088.

gold prices are still Rs 1,000 off from a record high of Rs 47,929 per 10 grams. brewing Sino-u.s. tensions over Hong Kong lifted demand for the safe-haven metal. equities and silver ticked higher on the back of a sharp rise in coronavirus cases. a direct drop below $1665 is a signal of weakness, said geojit financial services head.

Negative

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-trumps-india-rally-modi-bets-on-bolstering-his-image/2020/02/22/5db9d1ac-5533-11ea-80ce-37a8d4266c09_story.html

If the status quo continues, the days ahead will be driven by an ongoing war of narratives over who is entitled to hate more and kill more.

aaron carroll: if status quo continues, days ahead will be driven by war of narratives. he says war of narratives over who is entitled to hate more and kill more. carroll: if status quo continues, we will see war of narratives over who is entitled to hate more. carroll: if the status quo continues, we will see war of narratives over who is entitled to hate more.

Negative

https://www.financialexpress.com/market/sensex-nifty-follow-plunge-on-wall-street-banks-financials-worst-hit-check-whats-dragging-markets/1989183/

Following a mammoth plunge on Wall Street, BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 tumbled over per cent in Friday’s trade. Index heavyweights HDFC Bank, HDFC, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Reliance Industries and Kotak Mahindra Bank contributed the most to the indices’ losses today. Among key events today, investors are eyeing on GST council meeting, IIP for April, CPI inflation for May. “The markets opened with a gap down and have made a low of 9545 after which it has bounced. What needs to be seen is if the level of 9640 is breached again. If that happens, we should witness more downside pressure which could take the Nifty down to 9450. For any upside to get activated, we need to cross 9850,” said Manish Hathiramani, proprietary index trader and technical analyst, Deen Dayal Investments. IndusInd Bank share plunges 6%: Barring Bharti Airtel and Sun Pharma, all the 29 stocks were trading in the deep sea of red. IndusInd Bank shares plunged over 6 per cent. ONGC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, NTPC, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries (RIL) and State Bank of India (SBI), were other losers on the pack. Nifty Bank, Nifty Financial Services down 3.5%: All 11 Nifty sectoral indices were trading in the negative territory. Nifty Bank, Nifty PSU Bank, Nifty Private Bank and Nifty Financial Services were top sectoral losers, all down over 3 per cent. Corporate earnings today: Hindalco Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra, Goodyear India, Castrol India, Eicher Motors, IOL Chemicals, Pudumjee Paper Products, Suprajit Engineering and Alkali Metals are among 30 companies which are scheduled to announce their March quarter earnings today. FII and DII data: On Thursday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs) sold shares worth Rs 805.14 crore and Rs 874.35 crore on a net basis, according to the provisional data available on the NSE. Global market: In overnight trade on Wall Street, S&P 500 was placed on the track for its worst day in nearly three months. The Dow was down 1,512 points, or 5.6%, to 25,477. The Nasdaq composite, which was coming off an all-time high, slid 4%.S&P 500 lost 188.04 points, or 5.89%, to 3,002.1

HDFC Bank, HDFC, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Reliance Industries and Kotak Mahindra Bank contributed the most to the indices’ losses today. Among key events today, investors are eyeing on GST council meeting, IIP for April and CPI inflation for may. ONGC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, NTPC, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries (RIL) and State Bank of India (SBI), were

Negative

https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/can-fix-petrobas-situation-says-brazils-economy-minister/1547505/

Brazilian Economy Minister Paulo Guedes said he’ll clear up any confusion from President Jair Bolsonaro’s decision to halt a planned fuel-price hike by Petroleo Brasileiro SA. When asked about Bolsonaro’s meddling in state-controlled Petrobras’ pricing policy this week, Guedes said he’d get more information when he returns home from Washington, where he’s been attending the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund. Petrobras shares plunged more than 8 percent on Friday after Bolsonaro called the energy producer’s Chief Executive Officer Roberto Castello Branco and ordered him to cancel a planned increase in diesel prices. Also read: Chinese economy ‘generally stable’, to maintain prudent monetary policy “The president has many virtues, does a lot of right things, and he has already said he doesn’t understand much of economics,” Guedes told reporters on Saturday. “If he did something that’s not very reasonable, I’m sure we can fix it. A conversation fixes everything.” Bolsonaro’s hastily-made decision sent shockwaves across Brazilian markets as it revived fears of the interventionist policies by previous Brazilian governments that analysts blame for fueling inflation and hurting the economy in recent years. A massive trucker strike hit the country a year ago when diesel prices were finally allowed to go up. Since then, the government temporarily subsidized diesel, and Petrobras has started adjusting its prices more sparingly. Late on Friday, Bolsonaro’s spokesman said the president understands that Petrobras is a publicly-held company subject to market rules, and that it shouldn’t be subject to political interference. Bolsonaro, elected in 2018 on a pro-business platform after years of leftist governments, plans to meet again with the Petrobras CEO and some of his ministers on Tuesday to discuss the situation with truck drivers.

president Jair Bolsonaro ordered the energy producer's chief executive officer to cancel a planned increase in diesel prices. the move sent shockwaves across Brazilian markets as it revived fears of the interventionist policies by previous Brazilian governments. a massive trucker strike hit the country a year ago when diesel prices were finally allowed to go up. since then, the government temporarily subsidized diesel, and Petrobras has started adjusting its prices more sparingly.

Negative

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/commodities/brent-crude-extends-fall-as-coronavirus-shutdowns-sap-demand-5062111.html

Representative Image Brent crude prices extended falls on Monday amid more action by governments to contain the global coronavirus outbreak that has slashed the demand outlook for oil and threatened a worldwide economic contraction. Brent crude futures fell 65 cents, or 2.4%, to $26.33 a barrel by 0328 GMT. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 29 cents, or 1.3%, at $22.92 a barrel, having fallen 2 percentage points more than Brent this year. Oil prices have fallen for four straight weeks and have dropped about 60% since the start of the year. Prices of everything from coal to copper have also been hit by the crisis, while markets in bonds and stocks enter rarely charted territory. The Tokyo Olympics became the latest potential casualty of the pandemic as Japan and the games organizers' raised the prospect of a delay from the summer, while Canada announced it will not send athletes to the event. The coronavirus, which has infected more than 325,000 and killed over 14,000 worldwide, has disrupted business, travel and daily life. Many oil companies have rushed to cut spending and some producers have already begun putting employees on furlough. COVID-19 Vaccine Frequently Asked Questions View more How does a vaccine work? A vaccine works by mimicking a natural infection. A vaccine not only induces immune response to protect people from any future COVID-19 infection, but also helps quickly build herd immunity to put an end to the pandemic. Herd immunity occurs when a sufficient percentage of a population becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely. The good news is that SARS-CoV-2 virus has been fairly stable, which increases the viability of a vaccine. How many types of vaccines are there? There are broadly four types of vaccine — one, a vaccine based on the whole virus (this could be either inactivated, or an attenuated [weakened] virus vaccine); two, a non-replicating viral vector vaccine that uses a benign virus as vector that carries the antigen of SARS-CoV; three, nucleic-acid vaccines that have genetic material like DNA and RNA of antigens like spike protein given to a person, helping human cells decode genetic material and produce the vaccine; and four, protein subunit vaccine wherein the recombinant proteins of SARS-COV-2 along with an adjuvant (booster) is given as a vaccine. What does it take to develop a vaccine of this kind? Vaccine development is a long, complex process. Unlike drugs that are given to people with a diseased, vaccines are given to healthy people and also vulnerable sections such as children, pregnant women and the elderly. So rigorous tests are compulsory. History says that the fastest time it took to develop a vaccine is five years, but it usually takes double or sometimes triple that time. View more Show The market has had to contend with the twin shocks of the demand destruction caused by the coronavirus pandemic and the unexpected oil price war that erupted between producers Russia and Saudi Arabia earlier this month. The current production cut deal expires March 31. The gap between current levels and prices in six months widened to the highest in more than a decade as traders tried to find space to hold oil amid the contraction in prompt demand. "Even if oil prices somehow manage to rebound a little more, oil is heading south as the demand destruction for crude will only get worst as more countries intensify their shutting down of non-essential business efforts and as storage space for crude runs out," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA. Almost a third of Americans are now under orders to stay at home as states took extra measures to stem the rising numbers of cases in the world's biggest economy, while in New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Adern said all non-essential services and business are to be shut down. Demand is expected to fall by more than 10 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 10% of daily global crude consumption, said Giovanni Serio, head of research at Vitol, the world's biggest oil trader. Goldman Sachs estimated the demand loss could total 8 million bpd, brought about by countries slowing economic activity to combat the coronavirus outbreak. Oil refiners worldwide are slashing production or considering cuts as the pandemic causes the evaporation of fuel demand.

oil prices have fallen for four straight weeks and have dropped about 60% since the start of the year. the coronavirus has infected more than 325,000 and killed over 14,000 worldwide. many oil companies have rushed to cut spending and some producers have already begun putting employees on furlough. a vaccine works by mimicking a natural infection.

Negative

https://www.financialexpress.com/market/pound-at-week-high-dollar-sinks-as-risk-on-mood-cautiously-holds/1696669/

The British pound hovered around a one-week high on Thursday as another parliamentary defeat for Prime Minister Boris Johnson made investors optimistic that a no-deal Brexit could be avoided, while a broader risk-on mood held back the dollar. The dollar fell against most major currencies, though gained on the safe-haven yen, as the UK parliamentary vote, positive economic data in the United States and China and hopes for a de-escalation in Hong Kong’s political crisis lured investors to riskier assets. The pound was at $1.2242, after its best day against the dollar in more than five months, and the euro also climbed 0.6% to $1.1033. Against a basket of currencies the dollar hit a one-week low of 98.390. The British parliament voted on Wednesday to prevent Johnson from taking Britain out of the European Union without a deal on Oct. 31, but rejected his first bid to call a snap election two weeks before the scheduled exit. “While there is no ‘all clear’ on market concerns, investor sentiment pulled back from extremes,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at brokerage CMC Markets in Sydney. “Currency markets illustrated the shift…the U.S. dollar played a passive role as markets wait for the next trade tweets to drop.” The Canadian dollar spiked sharply to C$1.3344 per dollar after the Bank of Canada left interest rates on hold and sounded less dovish than the market had expected. The more upbeat mood cautiously held in morning trade in Asia, though few expected it to last long. Brexit is still up in the air, with possible outcomes ranging from a no-deal exit from the EU to abandoning the whole endeavour. “It’s important to keep in mind that the situation continues to look pretty bad,” J.P. Morgan analysts reminded investors in a market note, pointing out that Johnson is pushing for a snap election and a so-called “hard Brexit” remains an option. The weak global trade outlook is also still a key worry, with U.S. President Donald Trump warning on Tuesday he would be “tougher” on Beijing in a second term if talks dragged on. And it was not clear whether Hong Kong would return to calm after leader Carrie Lam withdraw an extradition bill that triggered months of often violent protests. That caution kept the yen’s losses reasonably muted, though it did drift a little further lower to 106.42 per-dollar, its cheapest since Friday. The yuan held on to Wednesday’s gains at around 7.1487 per dollar in offshore trade. China will implement both broad and targeted cuts in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for banks “in a timely manner,” China’s cabinet said in a meeting on Wednesday, an indication that a cut in the key ratio aimed at boosting lending could be imminent. “A drop in geopolitical risk premium comes as a welcome relief,” said Stephen Innes, Asia Pacific market strategist at AxiTrader. “But with the omnipresent trade war clouds looming ominously over the market threatening to come thundering down at any time, the air remains thick with caution.”

dollar falls against most major currencies, though gains on safe-haven yen. pound is at $1.2242, its best day against the dollar in more than five months. euro also climbed 0.6% to $1.1033, dollar hit a one-week low of 98.390. parliamentary vote to prevent Johnson from taking Britain out of the eu.

Negative

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/hardware/india-centrepiece-of-our-growth-strategy-oppo/articleshow/66890999.cms

Elevate Your Tech Prowess with High-Value Skill Courses Offering College Course Website Indian School of Business ISB Digital Transformation Visit Northwestern University Kellogg Post Graduate Certificate in Product Management Visit IIT Delhi IITD Certificate Programme in Data Science & Machine Learning Visit NEW DELHI: Chinese handset maker Oppo considers India the “centrepiece” of its global growth strategy and is in an “investmentheavy phase” in the country, a top executive said.“We have a clear India strategy, going forward, and will continue to add to our product offering in India to expand our ever-growing base,” Charles Wong, India president for Oppo, told ET. “We have a strong leadership team in India that is well equipped for taking over the responsibility of strategic stewardship of Oppo in India.”Wong’s comments come after the departure of Oppo’s India managing director Yi Wang amid widening of losses and intense competition in the country. Oppo’s net loss in India widened to Rs 358 crore in 2017-18 from Rs 42 crore in the previous year, as per documents filed with the Registrar of Companies (RoC). It reported a net loss of Rs 7.78 billion for the half year ended September 30, 2018. Analysts attributed the widening of loss to high marketing spend.“India is a high priority market which forms the centrepiece of our global growth strategy,” Wong said. He did not share investment figures but said the company will continue with its marketing plan to tap “an aspirational audience in tier II regions who are fuelling the demand for smartphones in India”.“Our associations with sports, entertainment and lifestyle that connect with our primary target audience, will continue in India as we see it as one of the largest markets for our products,” Wong said. The company strengthened its India team by appointing Tasleem Arif as vice-president and head of R&D. “We’ll make the announcement of India MD at an appropriate time,” said Wong.

china's handset maker is in an "investmentheavy phase" in the country, a top executive says. Oppo's net loss in india widened to Rs 358 crore in 2017-18 from Rs 42 crore in the previous year. the company has a strong leadership team in India that is well equipped for taking over the responsibility of strategic stewardship of Oppo in the country.

Negative

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert-view/are-airlines-multiplexes-good-options-for-contra-play/articleshow/77528671.cms

Vibes are good in auto; ancillaries should do better, says Kunj Bansal Why has Bharti Airtel turned laggard? Expect lending activity to return to normal by Diwali: Nirmal Jain For 18-month plus horizon, go 50-30-20 on large-mid-small caps: Sunil Subramaniam Digital payments platform Razorpay plans to move its parent firm to India through a cross-country merger that may entail a tax payment of $250-300 million in the US, where it is currently domiciled, according to multiple people aware of discussions. Indians have become the largest real estate investors in the Dubai property market, playing a pivotal role in shaping the city’s real estate market. The Income Tax (I-T) Department is investigating the Indian units of Apple, Google and Amazon over possible non-payment of tax. In connection with a probe that began in 2021, the authorities have sought detailed explanations from the tech behemoths on their transfer pricing (TP) practices, according to people aware of the matter. Experience Your Economic Times Newspaper, The Digital Way! (What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news stock tips and expert advice on ETMarkets . Also, ETMarkets.com is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .) Download The Economic Times News App to get Daily Market Updates & Live Business News. Top Trending Stocks: Sensex Today Live

the Indian units of Apple, Google and Amazon are being investigated over possible non-payment of tax. the tax department is investigating the Indian units of Apple, Google and Amazon over possible non-payment of tax. the etsy. sri lanka-based company is a. global leader in the payments industry. the etsy. sri lanka-based company is a. global leader in the payments industry.

Negative

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india/assessing-impact-of-us-decision-on-blocking-h-1b-visas-mea-5459251.html

India on Thursday said it was assessing the impact of the Trump administration's decision to block H-1B visas on Indian nationals and industry but indicated its dismay over it saying people-to-people linkages and economic cooperation are an important dimension of ties between the two countries. In a huge blow to Indian IT professionals eyeing the US job market, the Trump administration suspended the most sought-after H-1B visas along with other types of foreign work visas until the end of 2020 to protect American workers in a crucial election year. "This is likely to affect movement of Indian skilled professionals who avail of these non-immigrant visa programmes to work lawfully in the US. We are assessing the impact of the order on Indian nationals and industry in consultation with stakeholders," Spokesperson in the Ministry of External Affairs Anurag Srivastava said. He was replying to a question on the issue at an online media briefing. "People-to-people linkages and trade & economic cooperation, especially in technology and innovation sectors, are an important dimension of the US-India partnership," he said. The decision by the Trump administration is going to impact a large number of Indian IT professionals and several American and Indian companies who were issued H-1B visas by the US government for the fiscal year 2021 beginning October 1. Srivastava said high-skilled Indian professionals bring important skill sets, bridge technological gaps and impart a competitive edge to the US economy. "They have also been a critical component of the workforce that is at the forefront of providing COVID-19 related assistance in key sectors, including health, information technology and financial services," he said. "The US has always welcomed talent and we hope our professionals will continue to be welcomed in the US in the future," Srivastava said.

the decision is likely to affect movement of Indian skilled professionals, an official says. the government is assessing the impact of the order on Indian nationals and industry. the decision is going to impact a large number of Indian IT professionals. the decision is going to impact several american and Indian companies. a spokesman says people-to-people linkages are an important dimension of ties between the two countries.

Negative

https://www.financialexpress.com/market/jittery-markets-investors-wealth-loss-nears-rs-1000000-crores/1654372/

The loss in investor wealth after the Budget is nudging Rs 10 lakh crore, with a record number of stocks crashing to new lows. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have dumped shares worth $1.4 billion since July 5 — they sold close to $400 million worth of stocks on Tuesday, provisional data showed. The broader market remains in deep distress — nearly 1,300 stocks have hit 52-week lows after the Budget announcement, exacerbating the six-quarter bearish trend. The benchmark Nifty has lost more than 5% since July 5. The sharp and prolonged slowdown in the economy and poor corporate earnings have prompted investors to pare their portfolios. Credit strategists Suisse said cuts in earnings estimates have become much more broad-based in the last six months, with over 75% of the top 150 firms seeing cuts to FY20 estimates. “While the aggregate quantum of cuts in the last three months is relatively minor, we expect the pace of cuts to pick up during the 1Q earnings season,” they wrote. Consumption demand is weak as seen from the lack-lustre sales of cars and two-wheelers. The higher surcharge on income of high-income individuals, analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities said, may affect demand for high-end real estate as the additional annual tax outgo is quite substantial at about 25-50% of the annual EMI related to a high-end property. “A further slowdown in sales of residential property may increase the current cash flow problems of certain real estate developers and by extension, the beleaguered housing finance companies,” they cautioned. On Tuesday, as many as 34 of the BSE-500 stocks slumped to 52-week low with nearly a third of them coming from auto and financial sectors. On Monday the BSE Auto Index and the BSE Small Cap Index hit their lowest levels in the last one year

nearly 1,300 stocks have hit 52-week lows after the Budget announcement. the benchmark Nifty has lost more than 5% since July 5. consumption demand is weak as seen from lack-lustre sales of cars and two-wheelers. the higher surcharge on income of high-income individuals may affect demand for high-end real estate. the broader market remains in deep distress.

Negative

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/small-lighten-up-position-ahead-of-budget-rohit-srivastava-2488381.html

Midcap and small cap stocks are a sell on rallies as their relative strength has been weakening in favor of large caps, Rohit Srivastava, Fund Manager – PMS, Sharekhan, said in an exclusive interview with Moneycontrol’s Kshitij Anand. Q) It has been a roller coaster ride for the bulls in the second week of January. The index rose to fresh record highs and rose 2 percent for the week ended January 19? Do you think the momentum will continue? A) We witnessed massive writing by option sellers in the past week. Usually, that means the markets may hold their own until expiration. So, the momentum may continue till expiration due to the large buildup in Put options at most strike prices. However, expect profit booking to show up post-expiration. Q) What should be the ideal strategy ahead of the Budget? A) Markets always build up expectations from the budget on either economic or tax reform or measures to boost growth. Markets always over expect and therefore, one should not buy on the budget news. Waiting for the market to discount the news and then acting is a better strategy. Typically, lighten up on positions before the budget and wait for a day after to resume one's actions. Q) How is the market looking on the weekly as well as monthly charts? A) Markets always pause after 5-6 weeks of rally. So, chances are that we will pause into the Budget. Since July, the Nifty has rallied for 5-weeks in a row and then corrected. It did so into the August top and the same pattern also repeated into the November top after a 5-week rally in the month of October. We are also in the 13th month of a rally, and 13 is a Fibonacci number, Fibonacci months are often followed by market turns as well. The right Choice of stocks/sectors has been important throughout the last year and will continue to be so. There are many underperforming stocks and sectors even in Midcaps. I am bullish on commodities and related stocks because the commodity cycle has turned up starting last year. The reason is the falling dollar that is driving up commodity prices. Banks and interest rate sensitive sectors appear risky given that bond yields are rising closely across global markets. No one is paying heed to this trend but it has not become persistent and is an active risk to the market. Q) What should be the strategy -- buy on dips or sell on rallies in the coming week? A) I believe that specifically for Midcap and small cap stocks it is a sell on rallies as their relative strength has been weakening in favor of large caps. In Oct-Jan we did see meaningful outperformance of midcaps over large caps but that changed in the last 10 days. After 10-Jan-2018, we have seen midcaps fall and large caps rise. This change was quite significant and should be noted in one’s asset allocation. Q) Top 3-5 stocks which are looking attractive at current levels based on technical? A) Vedanta, Tata Steel, Hindalco, with a one month time horizon could hold their own if commodity prices continue to rise.

small cap and midcap stocks are a sell on rallies as their relative strength has been weakening in favor of large caps. since July, the Nifty has rallied for 5-weeks in a row and then corrected. the right Choice of stocks/sectors has been important throughout the last year and will continue to be so. the falling dollar is driving up commodity prices.

Negative

https://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/china-coronavirus-vijay-rupani-seeks-s-jaishankar-help-for-gujarat-students-in-china/1836785/

Gujarat Chief Minister Vijay Rupani on Monday urged External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar to intervene after parents of students studying in Wuhan, the Chinese city in the grip of novel coronavirus, sought help from the BJP government here for their safe return. In a release issued here, the Gujarat government said as many as 100 students from the state are stuck in China, and informed that Rupani has spoken to Jaishankar on the phone and asked him to intervene to ensure their safe return home. Coronavirus (officially described as 2019-nCoV) cases were first reported from Wuhan, the capital of central China’s Hubei province. A few cases have been found in other countries including South Korea, Japan, Thailand and the United States. The virus can cause fever, coughing, wheezing and pneumonia. It is a member of the coronavirus family that’s a close cousin to the deadly SARS and MERS viruses that have caused outbreaks in the past. Rupani’s move came after Vadodara resident Shashi Jaiman on Monday tweeted to him informing that his 18-year-old daughter, studying medicine in Wuhan, was stuck there, and sought help from the state government. “My daughter Shreya Jaiman is studying in Hubei University for MBBS, in Wuhan city of China. There are nearly about 300 students of India in which 100 Gujarati who are stuck there due to coronavirus. Please take necessary steps to take them back to India. Vadodara (Guj),” he tweeted. Speaking to reporters here, Jaiman said, “My daughter told us she is not getting food and water since the last two days as markets and establishments have been shutdown following the virus outbreak. She is in deep trouble and we have appealed to the government to intervene.” He claimed 20 students from Gujarat were studying in the university there and all were in a bad state due to the lockdown caused by the virus. The death toll due to the virus rose to 56 on Sunday with confirmed cases of the disease reaching 1,975 and 324 of them being critical, Chinese health authorities said in an official statement on Monday.

parents of students studying in Wuhan seek help from the BJP government. as many as 100 students from the state are stuck in china. coronavirus (officially described as 2019-nCoV) cases first reported from Wuhan. death toll due to virus rose to 56 on sunday. cases reached 1,975 and 324 of them were critical.

Negative

https://www.financialexpress.com/market/indian-rupee-at-70-strong-usd-challenging-global-environment-us-turkey-tensions-weigh-says-dbs/1285977/

The strong US dollar is expected to further weigh on the Indian rupee, which hit a low past the 70-mark against the greenback in recent foreign exchange movements, according to Singapore’s DBS Bank Group today. “A challenging global environment has compelled the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to intervene aggressively this year to contain INR depreciation. Foreign reserves have declined from a record high of USD 426 billion in April to USD 403 billion in early August,” said the bank in its daily market report. “Contagion worries from the US-Turkey saber-rattling hurt the emerging markets (EM) currencies, with the Indian rupee depreciating to a record low past 70 per USD (down 9 per cent year-to-date),” noted DBS. Fund allocations away from EMs is likely to persist as the US Fed tightens policy.“We expect further risk-off trades and USD strength to weigh on the Indian rupee,” it said in the report “India chart book: Growth is back, so is volatility”. Comfortable adequacy ratios suggest there is more room to battle foreign exchange volatility. Inflationary risks have receded for the short-term helped by base effects and seasonal factors, but rupee direction and oil are risks for inflationary expectations. The RBI-led monetary policy committee front-loaded rate hikes to contain elevated core inflation. Inflation out-turns will dictate monetary policy, especially if persistent and sharp rupee weakness adds to the risks, it said. “We retain our call for a 25-bp hike in the March 2019 quarter, with the door open for more if risk conditions deteriorate sharply,” said DBS. The fiscal year 2019 growth trajectory should be viewed in two halves – strong first half before momentum tapers, said DBS. “We revise up our real GDP estimate to 7.4 per cent from 7.2 per cent previously.”

rupee hit a low past the 70-mark in recent foreign exchange movements. the US dollar is expected to weigh on the Indian rupee. rupee direction and oil are risks for inflationary expectations. RBI-led monetary policy committee front-loaded rate hikes. the fiscal year 2019 growth trajectory should be viewed in two halves. the rupee direction and oil are risks for inflationary expectations.

Negative

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/personal-finance/home-loan-defaults-can-put-personal-wealth-in-jeopardy-here-is-how-5354461.html

Last week, a very different question on real estate was posed to me – "How costly can a home loan default be?" Two events in Mumbai real estate have made the question pertinent. 1). Popularity of home purchases via subvention scheme: Earlier, most people bought apartments through a construction-linked plan (CLP). Under this plan, as construction happened, the buyer made his payments or serviced the loan taken for an apartment. Between 2015 and 2019, things changed and subvention loans became the flavour. Schemes such as 5:80:15 were common. Under the arrangement, a buyer pays 5 percent, a lender then provides 80 percent funding but the pre-EMI until possession is paid by a developer. To provide this facility, the developer increases the total cost of the apartment for the buyer. On possession however, the buyer pays the remaining 15 percent. Until the possession date however, the buyer has paid only 5 percent for the apartment plus stamp duty of 5 percent. In stock market parlance, subvention loans are the F&O of the real estate market. Reliable data doesn’t exist but my estimate is that 35k-55k deals in Mumbai Metropolitan Region have been done under subvention. 2). Falling home prices: It is no secret that home prices are falling. As I mentioned in my earlier column, the price fall is sharper and more public in the resale space in comparison to transactions done by the developer. The only debate is on the degree of the price fall. At the premium and luxury end – it is not uncommon to see prices in the resale market lower by 25 percent. At the mid-level housing level, the fall is not as steep. Also Read | Mumbai realty developers must quickly go public with discounts These two factors are a lethal cocktail. Here is why: suppose an apartment under a construction-linked plan is available at Rs 1.75 crore, the cost under subvention would be close to Rs 2 crore – assuming that the possession date is around three years away. The difference in price is to make up for the expense that the developer will be bearing for paying your pre-EMI. Now comes the price cut. The only thing is the price cut will be based on the construction-linked plan price: Rs 1.75 crore. The logic is simple: the resale buyer does not care whether the primary buyer booked the apartment through subvention or not. Psychologically, the primary buyer under CLP will just be taking a loss of only 6 percent even if he sells it at Rs 1.65 crore. But the balance changes for buyers who have booked via a subvention loan. They will be acquiring an apartment which they know at the resale market is lower by Rs 35 lakh (purchase price of Rs 2 crore and resale price of Rs 1.65 crore). Also Read | Booked your house before COVID-19 struck? Here are your options Lenders have improved their subvention game. The bizarre practice of disbursing the entire amount at one go to the developer has been replaced to the sane practice of doing it on a construction-linked basis. As the developer demonstrates, he has completed a particular slab, only then a disbursement takes place. The latest RBI norms pegged the loan-to-value ratio at 75 percent for loans above 75 lakh. Yet, it is hardly a secret that many leakages take place in this regard as well. Hence often the loan amount can reach even 85–90 percent of the agreement value. I understand the lender perspective with regard to home loans in markets like Mumbai. The prices have either risen or remained stable. Hence, LTV norms were rarely tested. Now the twin blows of falling home prices and reckless subvention loans have turned that premise upside down. What happens now? Some homebuyers who availed loans under the subvention scheme will grudgingly continue paying their loans. But what of the people who have faced substantial salary cuts or lost their jobs? A home loan default is highly plausible. That sets a series of actions that ends with an auction of the seized property. And it can get messy for the home buyer. Loan agreements have a clause wherein if the realised value for the asset is not enough to recover the loan amount – the shortfall has to be compensated by the homebuyer itself. An example of the clause is: “If the net sum realized through the enforcement/sale/transfer of security is insufficient to cover the Borrower’s Dues, then without prejudice to the other rights and remedies of XXX under the loan documents and/or in law, the borrower agrees and undertakes to pay to XXX forthwith at XXX’s demand such amount as will make up the shortfall. The decision made by XXX with respect to matter under the Loan Documents shall be final and binding on the Borrower.” Loosely put this reads: a home loan is almost a personal loan with the home as collateral. If the sale of the home is not enough to recover, his other assets can be in jeopardy. Far from a home providing a degree of security, an attempt at buying a home through tools like subvention in a falling market can put to risk all the other assets built over time. Whether the personal asset recovery is legally enforceable by the lender in a smooth fashion is debatable. But the persistent harassment against the home buyer is not. To the original question – “How costly can a home loan default be?” The answer: The costliest decision of your life. (When not busy with his newstoon platform Snapnews, Vishal Bhargava is a real estate enthusiast who views and reviews new projects. Views are personal)

a recent spate of subvention schemes have sparked a slew of problems. the first is the price cut based on the construction-linked plan price. the second is the price cut based on the price of the property. the difference in price is to make up for the expense that the developer will be bearing for paying your pre-EMI.

Negative

https://www.livemint.com/Money/xiuZYBHL9iXJ5IaViU1SeL/Wall-Street-opens-lower-as-growth-concerns-linger-Fed-in-fo.html

New York: US stocks are falling in choppy trading, and the S&P 500 is down to its lowest in more than a year.Health insurers and hospitals are falling after a federal judge in Texas ruled that the 2010 Affordable Care Act is unconstitutional. Retailers and technology stocks are also sinking. Some of the biggest losses are going to utilities and real estate companies, which have done better than the rest of the market during the turbulence of the last three months. KEEPING SCORE: The S&P 500 skidded 39 points, or 1.5 percent, at 2,560 as of 1:50 p.m. Eastern time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 363 points, or 1.5 percent, to 23,735. The Nasdaq composite fell 106 points, or 1.5 percent, to 6,803. The Russell 2000 index dipped 18 points, or 1.3 percent, to 1,391. The S&P 500 dropped in early trading and briefly recovered before falling again. It’s now on track for its lowest close since October 2017. The US benchmark index has fallen 12.6 percent since it set a record high in late September. The Russell 2000 has done significantly worse: it’s down 20 percent since it finished at its last record high at the end of August. Wall Street calls a 20 percent decline a “bear market," and it’s considered a major downturn. The S&P Small Cap 600 index went into a bear market Friday as investors continue to lose confidence in the US economy’s growth prospects. Smaller companies are considered more vulnerable in a downturn than larger companies because they are more dependent on economic growth and tend to have higher levels of debt. HEALTH SCARE: Hospital operator HCA dropped 2.5 percent to $123.51 while health insurer UnitedHealth lost 1.9 percent to $259.53. Centene, a health insurer that focuses on Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act’s individual health insurance exchanges, fell 4.2 percent to $122.18 and Molina skidded 11.5 percent to $116.55. Many experts expect the ruling will be overturned, but with the markets suffering steep declines in recent months, investors didn’t appear willing to wait and see. BONDS: Bond prices rose. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 2.86 percent from 2.89 percent. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates again Wednesday, the fourth increase of this year. It’s been raising rates since over the last three years, and investors will want to know if the Fed is scaling back its plans for further increases based on the turmoil in the stock market over the last few months and mounting evidence that world economic growth is slowing down. Banks were mixed Monday despite the downward drift in bond yields, which makes lending less profitable for banks by forcing interest rates on loans such as mortgages lower. They have been hammered recently because of investors’ concerns about slowing growth and slower increases in interest rates. The S&P 500’s index of financial stocks is down 10 percent in the last month, worse than any other part of the market. For the year it’s down 14 percent, much worse than the 4.2 percent decline in the S&P 500. UK QUESTIONS: British Prime Minister Theresa May said Parliament will vote Jan. 14 on her deal setting terms for Britain’s departure from the European Union. She canceled a vote on the deal last week because it was clear legislators were going to reject it. May insists she can save the deal, but pressure is mounting for either a vote by lawmakers or a new referendum on the issue. Britain is scheduled to leave the EU in late March, and if it does so without a deal in place governing their trade and economic relationships, it could bring huge disruptions to the British and European economies and financial markets. OVERSEAS: Germany’s DAX lost 0.9 percent. That means the DAX, which represents Europe’s largest single economy, is also in bear market territory. France’s CAC 40 and Britain’s FTSE 100 both fell 1.1 percent. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index added 0.6 percent and the Kospi in South Korea gained 0.1 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was less than 0.1 percent lower. Both the Kospi and Hang Seng are in bear markets as well. TRADE TENSIONS: China and the United States clashed again over their respective trade policies Monday, as China criticized what it calls a “unilateralist and protectionist" approach to trade. The US ambassador to the World Trade Organization said those critiques were unwarranted. The two nations have been embroiled in a dispute over technology policy and other issues for most of this year. With no end to the conflict in sight, investors are growing more concerned that the tensions will drag down the already-slowing global economy. ENERGY: Benchmark US crude fell 2.2 percent to $50.06 a barrel in New York. Brent crude, used to price international oils, dipped 0.9 percent to $59.72 a barrel in London. METALS: Gold rose 0.8 percent to $1,251.80 an ounce. Silver added 0.8 percent to $14.76 an ounce. Copper dipped 0.3 percent to $2.75 a pound. CURRENCIES: The dollar slipped to 112.73 yen from 113.29 yen. The euro rose to $1.1358 from $1.1303. The British pound rose to $1.2626 from $1.2579. (This story has been published from a wire agency feed without modifications to the text.) Milestone Alert!Livemint tops charts as the fastest growing news website in the world 🌏 Click here to know more. Topics

the s&p 500 is down to its lowest close in more than a year. the u.s. benchmark index has fallen 12.6 percent since it finished at its last record high in late September. the u.s. government is expected to raise interest rates on the 10-year Treasury note. the u.s. government is expected to raise interest rates on the 10-year note.

Negative

http://www.financialexpress.com/market/on-the-edge-lenders-weigh-on-indian-stocks-local-scrips-take-a-beating-on-bank-sector-fallout/1089790/

Indian stocks tumbled nearly 430 points on Tuesday, falling for the fifth straight session led by some big selling in banking stocks. The Sensex has lost 1,128.55 points and Rs 4.3 lakh crore of market capitalisation in the last five sessions. Although Asian markets posted gains, ostensibly shrugging off worries about a global trade war, Indian equities had a rough day with investors remaining concerned about the impact on banks of the fraud at Punjab National Bank (PNB). A Bloomberg report in the afternoon on the possibility of Europe imposing a 25% tariff on $2.8 billion worth of American goods triggered some late selling and saw the Sensex and Nifty shed 1.27% and 1.06%, respectively. Since January 29, when it hit its recent peak of 11,171.55 points, the Nifty has yielded as much as 8.55%. Since February 1, when the Union Budget for 2018-19 was announced, the Sensex has given up some 7%. After pumping in close to $8 billion in 2017, foreign portfolio investors are lying low and have so far invested only a meagre $309 million in Indian equities in 2018; they have been selling regularly since January 23. Domestic institutions, on the other hand, have been net buyers of equities worth $2.6 billion this year. Banking stocks were beaten down on Tuesday, explaining the sharper fall in the Sensex vis-a-vis the Nifty, as financial sector stocks account for 40% of its weightage. The Bank Nifty index was down 1.5%, while the BSE Bankex shed 1.44% after the Serious Fraud Investigations Office summoned the heads of all lenders to Nirav Modi and Mehul Choksi group entities, for further information on the defaulting entities and their mechanics. Market insiders don’t rule out more skeletons falling out of the banks’ cupboards and this concern seems to have rattled investors. Earlier in the day, Asian markets had shrugged off the protectionist stance adopted by US President Donald Trump on imports of commodities like aluminium and steel. Most Asian indices ended with strong gains after the sell-off on Monday. The Hang Seng closed 2.1% stronger, while the Nikkei and Kospi ended 1.8% and 1.5% up. Indian equities had returned 28.75% in rupee terms and 37% in dollar terms in calendar 2017 but have seen a sharp reversal in trend in 2018. The Nifty has registered a decline of 2.1% since the start of the year to close at its lowest level so far in 2018 at 10,215.91. This has translated into poor returns on a year-to-date basis for Indian equities vis-a-vis other prominent global markets, as measured by returns on their benchmark indices. In fact, with a negative return of 4.3%, India finds itself at the bottom of the table, in good measure also due to a 1.7% decline in the value of the rupee against the dollar. Brazil has been the best performing market on a year-to-date basis this year with dollar returns of 15%, aided by a 2% gain in its currency against the dollar. Despite the skittish sentiment in the market, though, analysts aren’t too perturbed. ICICI Securities wrote: “Based on various factors, our earlier analysis concluded that the fear factor is not extreme currently and is showing signs of receding.” The brokerage said it remains overweight on domestic cyclical recovery and wary of global trade environment and capital flows and added it would be fearful of a capitulation if growth outlook were to weaken in a rising inflation and deteriorating fiscal environment. On Tuesday, when Indian equities lost about Rs 1.75 lakh crore in market capitalisation, the big losers were state run lenders Canara Bank (-5.1%), PNB (-3.15%), private banks like ICICI Bank (-2.84%) and Axis Bank (-2.3%). Sun Pharma also ended 3% down, despite hopes its issues with the US food and Drug Administration may finally get resolved. A big fall was seen in the stock of Adani Enterprises, which lost 7.5% after a member of the ruling alliance alluded to its bank exposure running into thousands of crores turning into non-performing assets. The company issued a statement later in the day to counter these allegations. Fears of higher inflation and liquidity are reflected in the 10-year bond yields firming up by 174 basis points since the start of the year.

the Sensex has lost 1,128.55 points and Rs 4.3 lakh crore in the last five sessions. Asian markets posted gains, ostensibly shrugging off worries about a global trade war. but Indian equities had a rough day with investors remaining concerned about the impact on banks of the fraud at Punjab National Bank (PNB) a Bloomberg report in the afternoon on the possibility of a 25% tariff on $2.8 billion worth of american goods triggered some late selling.

Negative

https://www.businesstoday.in/current/world/coronavirus-impact-zara-owners-shut-down-4000-stores-worldwide/story/398717.html

Popular apparel brand Zara's Spanish owners Inditex has shut down 3,785 stores worldwide amid the COVID-19 outbreak. Inditex warned that its operations have faced a 'very significant impact' due to the pandemic. It said it has been forced to shut down in 39 markets, according to a report by Metro. It said that it is too early to comment on the effect the virus will have in the future, but it is confident of its business model's strength and flexibility. Sales took a hit by 24.1% triggered by the closure of stores in the first two weeks of March. The company might book a provision of 287 million euros as its spring/summer inventory loses its value due to the coronavirus outbreak. Inditex postponed its decision on paying out a dividend till later this year. Inditex's largest network of stores is in Spain, but the company has shut all stores in the country due to a nation-wide lockdown by the Spanish government on Saturday. The company had reported a jump in both sales and earnings on January 31. The net sales increased by 8 per cent to 28.3 billion euros, boosted by a 23 per cent rise in online sales. The company's earnings, before tax and interests, increased to 7.6 billion euros from 5.5 billion euros in the previous year.

Inditex warns operations have faced'very significant impact' due to pandemic. sales took a hit by 24.1% triggered by the closure of stores in first two weeks of march. the company might book a provision of 287 million euros as its spring/summer inventory loses its value due to the outbreak. it postponed its decision on paying out a dividend till later this year.

Negative

https://www.businesstoday.in/current/world/trump-calls-on-apple-to-move-production-from-china-to-us/story/282178.html

US President Donald Trump called for Apple to make its products in the US instead of China to avoid suffering the consequences of his trade war with Beijing. Trump has repeatedly called for companies to move production to the United States, or to keep it there, while pushing aggressive trade actions aimed at narrowing the US trade deficit, which he equates with theft from Americans. "Apple prices may increase because of the massive tariffs we may be imposing on China - but there is an easy solution where there would be ZERO tax, and indeed a tax incentive," Trump tweeted. "Make your products in the United States instead of China. Start building new plants now. Exciting!" But the higher cost of wages in the United States could offset the benefits Apple might gain by avoiding tariffs affecting its products manufactured in China. The Trump administration has placed punitive tariffs on 50 billion in Chinese goods and threatened to tax all Chinese imports to the United States. US businesses have become increasingly concerned about the tariffs, which are raising prices for manufacturers and could hurt the economy. But Trump has been unapologetic, insisting that his tough tactics will work.

president calls for Apple to make its products in the us instead of China. he has repeatedly called for companies to move production to the united states. the higher cost of wages in the united states could offset the benefits. the Trump administration has placed punitive tariffs on 50 billion in Chinese goods. he has also threatened to tax all Chinese imports to the united states.

Negative

https://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/after-shiv-sena-workers-beat-up-man-tonsure-his-head-aaditya-thackeray-appeals-for-calm-while-dealing-with-nasty-low-life-trolls/1803659/

Shiv Sena leader Aaditya Thackeray has asked party workers to exercise restrain in dealing with trolls. His appeal comes after scores of Shiv Sena workers thrashed a man and tonsured his head in Wadala area for posting a controversial comment on Facebook against Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray. “Calm, composed, aggressive about delivering promises and serving the people. Let’s win people. Trolls lose anyway,” Aaditya, who is the son of CM Uddhav, said on Tuesday. He represents the Worli seat in the Vidhan Sabha. Aaditya said he got to know of the untoward and angry reaction to a ‘nasty, low life troll’ who used uncivilized language against the CM’s effort to maintain religious harmony and remove fear from Maharashtra about the new citizenship law. He said the Shiv Sena workers should focus on silencing the chaos, divisions, fear, hate and keep people united. “Our answer is to create jobs and revive the economy,” he pointed out. “Law and order is a subject of police and shouldn’t be taken by anyone into his/her hands. Answering trolls who are nasty, threatening and abusive should not be our job,” Aaditya added. The man, identified as Hiramani Tiwari, 30, was thrashed by Shiv Sena workers after he posted a derogatory comment directed at CM Uddhav for comparing the police action on Jamia Millia Islamia University students in Delhi protesting against the Citizenship Amendment Act with the 1919 Jallianwala Bagh massacre. Hiramani works for a pharmaceutical firm in Wadala. According to visuals aired by television channels, Tiwari on December 19 shared the post under the name Rahul Tiwari. He deleted the post later after threats from Shiv Sena workers. But a group of Shiv Sena workers on Sunday afternoon showed up at his residence and told him that Samadhan Jugdar wanted to meet him. Jugdar is a shakha pramukh in Wadala’s Shanti Nagar locality. The men took Tiwari to Jugdar and beat him up. They even shaved his head. The entire incident was recorded using a mobile phone camera.

a man was thrashed by workers after posting a derogatory comment on facebook against CM Uddhav Thackeray. he was thrashed after he compared police action on students protesting against the citizenship amendment act with the 1919 Jallianwala bagh massacre. he was thrashed by workers after a group of workers showed up at his residence and told him that Samadhan Jugdar wanted to meet him.

Negative

https://www.financialexpress.com/market/take-over-franklin-templeton-management-investigate-investments-stock-brokers-body-asks-govt/1941307/

Seeking urgent steps to safeguard investors’ interest due to Franklin Templeton Mutual Fund’s decision to shut down six debt schemes, stock brokers’ association ANMI has asked the government and capital markets regulator Sebi to appoint a high-powered committee to take over the management of the fund house and examine its investment decision. In a letter dated April 26 the Finance Ministry and Sebi, the Association of National Exchanges Members of India (ANMI), which represents 900 stock brokers, has also requested for steps to safeguard further erosion of investor wealth and to inform the investors of these six schemes in a time-bound manner about modalities for them getting back their investments. Franklin Templeton Mutual Fund closed six of its debt funds on Thursday, citing redemption pressures and lack of liquidity in the bond markets. These schemes are Franklin India Low Duration Fund, Franklin India Dynamic Accrual Fund, Franklin India Credit Risk Fund, Franklin India Short Term Income Plan, Franklin India Ultra Short Bond Fund and Franklin India Income Opportunities Fund. The decision has led to concerns about the fate of investments and mutual fund industry body AMFI (Association of Mutual Funds in India) rushed in on Friday to assuage the same. In its letter dated April 26, ANMI said that closure of the six schemes by the fund house has sent shock waves to the entire mutual fund investing community. The association alleged that Franklin Templeton MF had heavily invested in low rated papers in the debt market and had also put money into several lesser known companies. “Based on portfolio details published by FTMF of these six funds as on March 31, 2020, it appears that the profile of some of the companies FTMF chose to invest and the terms of those invested is questionable. “When market slowdown gripped the economy, there was a substantial price erosion in low rated papers in the debt market, where FTMF had heavily invested forcing them to stop the redemption,” ANMI has alleged. Besides, substantial investment in low-rated papers, ANMI also alleged that the investment made by the fund house are in contravention to the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) norms. With regard to Franklin Ultra Short Term Bond Fund, ANMI alleged that 70 per cent fund corpus has been invested by Franklin Templeton MF in securities, which are maturing after 1 to 9 years (2021 onwards up to 2029). It further alleged that the investment pattern is completely in contravention with the Sebi norms, which mandate investment duration of 3-6 months for ultra short duration funds. “FTMF has taken long dated securities that normally have lesser liquidity compared with short dated securities. These long dated securities with substantial investment in low rated papers is the real cause of illiquidity that has caused closure of six funds of FTMF,” it alleged. ANMI has also accused the top management and trustees of Franklin Templeton MF of having remained “mute spectators of such blatant violation of Sebi regulations”. However, the fund house’s President Sanjay Sapre, in a note to investors on Monday, said these schemes followed a consistent investment strategy of investing in investment grade papers across the credit rating spectrum, that is to say, from AAA through to A rated papers. This strategy served the schemes and its investors well till recent times and the schemes were able to generate significant cash flows even during the last six months, which were more turbulent times for the credit markets, he said. On Friday also, ANMI had urged Finance Ministry and Sebi to take swift action for protecting the hard-earned savings of lakhs of investors who had invested in Franklin Templeton MF. Besides, it had suggested that an expert committee of mutual fund professionals should be formed to determine the precise problem in Franklin Templeton MF debt schemes.

ANMI asks government and regulator Sebi to appoint committee to oversee fund house. alleged that 70 per cent fund corpus invested by fund house in securities. alleged that the investment made by the fund house are in contravention to the securities and exchange board of india (sebi) norms. alleged that the investment made by the fund house are in contravention to the securities and exchange board of india (sebi) norms.

Negative

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/markets-enter-new-phase-where-cash-is-all-that-matters-11584616259458.html

A rush for cash shook the financial system Wednesday, as companies and investors hunkered down for a prolonged economic stall, taking the recent market turmoil into a new, more troubling liquidation phase. Investors sold nearly everything they could in the most all-encompassing market drawdown since the darkest days of the 2008 financial crisis. Short-term money markets at the heart of the financial system were strained and large companies have drawn heavily on credit facilities while they have them. The selling engulfed stocks, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1,338.46 points, or 6.3%, to 19898.92, its first close below 20000 in more than three years. The blue-chip index, which dropped more than 2,300 points earlier in the session, has fallen by about a third in just the past month. Wednesday’s selloff crushed shares of companies as varied as airlines, restaurants, banks and retailers. The declines showed the extent to which investors are worried that the novel coronavirus pandemic—which has already forced airlines to cut flights and businesses to close—could send the economy into a recession. Shares of Boeing Inc. tumbled 18%, while stock in Citigroup lost nearly 10% in value. A drop of more than 20% in the price of oil slammed shares of energy companies. Exxon Mobil Inc. fell 10% and has halved so far this year. Several stocks fell so sharply that exchanges had to temporarily halt trading in them. One such stock, Alaska Air Group Inc., tumbled 23% Wednesday. Olive Garden owner Darden Restaurants Inc. slid 19%. Coty Inc., whose beauty portfolio includes Sally Hansen, dropped 31%. In debt markets, the sell-everything approach drove down prices of safe investment grade bonds and government debt alongside stocks and commodities of nearly all stripes. Normally, when investors turn away from risky assets, they buy safer government debt—or if they are really frightened, gold. Investors appear to be putting their trust in only the shortest-term government bonds or cash. “When even silver and gold are getting crushed, that’s a panicked drawing of liquidity," said Rob Arnott, founder of California-based investment firm Research Affiliates. “In the U.S., you can’t find toilet paper anywhere: This is the capital markets equivalent of that." Yields on one-month U.S. Treasury bills, a close equivalent to cash, fell to as low as 0.0033% from 0.31% at the start of the week, their lowest level in several years. “There are very few places to hide. The tightening in financial conditions is happening across markets," said Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, global markets strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. He pointed to strong selling of bond funds that own the debt of the safest big companies, which is causing corporate borrowing costs to rise despite central bank efforts to do the opposite. Another factor pushing government bond yields higher: As investors dash for safety, they are contending with a potential massive new supply of government bonds that will be necessary to fund stimulus measures, including $1 trillion of spending discussed in Washington Tuesday. In the simplest terms, a greater supply of bonds should cause prices to fall and yields to rise. The rush to cash, meanwhile, has put strain on money markets in the U.S. and globally. The difference between the yield on the three-month Treasury bill and interbank lending rates, known as the Ted spread, jumped above 1 percentage point, according to FactSet, a level not seen since early 2009. In good times, the difference between the rates, which reflects how easy it is for banks to get hold of short-term borrowing, is negligible. The dollar, meanwhile, has surged against all currencies, as the cost to borrow dollars has risen substantially. People and companies need cash to cover rent, bills and other fixed costs at a time when businesses and schools are shutting doors and sending staff home across the U.S. and Europe to halt the spread of the novel coronavirus. “If you think about it from a small business standpoint, a big business standpoint, a fund manager standpoint—liquidity and cash is going to be king," said John Briggs, head of strategy, Americas, at NatWest Markets. “Take Italy: They’ve just hard-stopped the eighth largest economy in the world. We’ve never seen anything like this." The Bank of England said Wednesday it would provide an unlimited amount of financing in commercial paper markets. Small and medium-size companies in the U.S. and Europe are likely to be among the hardest hit because they have less room for error. Eric Lonergan, a portfolio manager at M&G Investments, said smaller companies in the U.K. were already delaying payments to their creditors if they could. “I think the entire economic system is trying to conserve cash at the moment," he said. Sushil Wadhwani, chief investment officer of QMA Wadhwani, a U.K.-based hedge fund, said the rational thing for individual companies was to access credit lines. Pension funds, meanwhile, which are normally built to ride out long market disruptions, may also be joining the cash dash. “For pension funds, it is sell anything you can sell to build up reserves so you can tell your trustees that you have enough cash to pay pensions over the next nine or 10 months," he said. “The longer this goes on, the more bankruptcy you get and the more unemployment you get," he said. This story has been published from a wire agency feed without modifications to the text. Milestone Alert!Livemint tops charts as the fastest growing news website in the world 🌏 Click here to know more.

the selloff sent the Dow down 1,338.46 points, or 6.3%, to 19898.92. the blue-chip index has fallen by about a third in just the past month. shares of airlines, restaurants, banks and retailers tumbled 18%. a drop of more than 20% in the price of oil slammed shares of energy companies.

Negative

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/eurozone-economy-took-record-hit-in-march-ihs-markit/articleshow/74965458.cms

Brussels: Business activity in the 19-nation eurozone suffered a record fall in March and hit an historic low, according to the PMI index published on Friday by analysts IHS Markit The IHS index for the month was 29.7 -- down from Markit's first estimate for March of 31.4 and well below the level in February of 51.6 points, before the coronavirus epidemic crippled the European economy.An IHS purchasing managers' index below 50 represents a contraction and the data group's chief business economist Chris Williamson said the eurozone economy is now shrinking at an annualised rate of almost 10 percent."The four largest nations covered by the survey all registered record declines in activity, with Italy and Spain experiencing the sharpest reductions," the final data release said.Ireland's PMI was its lowest in 131 months, and those in Germany, France, Spain and Italy the lowest since the survey began. "No countries are escaping the severe downturn in business activity," Williamson warned."But the especially steep decline in of Italy's service sector ... gives a taste of things to come for other countries as closures and lockdowns become more prevalent and more strictly enforced in coming months."While employment is not yet falling as fast as seen during the financial crisis, the coming months will no doubt see jobless numbers rise sharply."However, the ultimate economic cost of the COVID-19 outbreak cannot be accurately estimated until we get more clarity on the duration and scale of the pandemic," he said.

the eurozone economy is shrinking at an annualised rate of almost 10 percent. the eurozone's PMI index for the month was 29.7. it was down from the first estimate for the month of 31.4. the coronavirus epidemic crippled the eurozone economy. the four largest nations covered by the survey all registered record declines in activity.

Negative

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world/us-stalling-massive-imf-liquidity-boost-over-iran-china-sources-5152111.html

US opposition to opening new avenues of funding for Iran and China is preventing the International Monetary Fund from deploying a powerful tool to help countries fight the economic impact of the coronavirus, according to two sources familiar with the matter. A massive IMF liquidity injection through issuance of new Special Drawing Rights, something akin to a central bank "printing" new money, has the backing of many finance ministers, prominent economists, and non-profit groups. It could provide hundreds of billions of dollars in urgently needed foreign exchange reserves for all of the IMF's 189 member countries, and finance officials are debating the issue during this week's virtual IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings. But sources said the United States, the IMF's dominant shareholder, actively opposed the new fundraising. The Trump administration does not want Iran and China to have access to billions of dollars in new resources with no conditions, two of the sources familiar with the IMF's deliberations said, asking not to be identified given the sensitivity of the issue. They added that the IMF's move would give even wealthy countries new assets that are not necessarily needed. Even embattled Venezuela would get an allocation, although the IMF has blocked Caracas' access to its SDRs while international recognition of its government remains unclear. India also opposes a new SDR allocation, the two sources said, but New Delhi's reasons have not been made known. A spokesman for India's Finance Ministry did not respond to a request for comment. MONEY FOR NOTHING? SDRs, based on dollars, euro, yen, sterling and yuan, are the IMF's official unit of exchange. Member countries hold them at the Fund in proportion to their shareholdings. The IMF last approved a $250-billion new allocation of SDRs in 2009, boosting liquidity for cash-strapped countries during the last financial crisis. Doing so again now could provide more flexibility to the 102 countries that have already sought IMF emergency loans and grants, and allow aid to flow to high-debt countries that can't qualify for new IMF loans, such as Argentina and Zimbabwe. An SDR expansion has attracted some celebrity advocates, such as investor George Soros and U2 lead singer Bono's ONE anti-poverty organization, along with trade unions and faith-based groups. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva floated the idea of a $500 billion SDR issuance in March to G20 finance officials. But the group said in a statement after a videoconference on Wednesday there was "no consensus on the issue." Georgieva, who also has acknowledged U.S. resistance, told a news conference on Wednesday: "What we are concentrating on, is to act decisively with what we have, and where there is full consensus among members. We recognize that there are other options to be explored, and we will continue to do so," she said. Among these efforts is persuading wealthier countries to donate or lend their existing, unused SDRs to IMF lending facilities for poor countries. The Fund is trying to triple the resources in its Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust to $18 billion, she said. Some say $500 billion is too little. Former U.S. Treasury secretary Larry Summers and former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who both pushed for the 2009 SDR allocation, called on Wednesday for a $1 trillion-plus SDR issuance. "If ever there was a moment for an expansion of the international money known as Special Drawing Rights, it is now," they wrote in an op-ed in the Washington Post Wednesday. On Tuesday, the IMF said the recession sparked by the virus would be far deeper than the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009, shrinking the global economy by 3.0% in 2020. HIGH TENSIONS The Trump administration's opposition comes at a time when U.S. tension with China is running high over the causes of the virus and a long-running trade war. U.S.-Iran tension nearly boiled over into armed conflict in January. The U.S. Treasury Department has pressed the IMF instead to focus on quickly deploying its $1 trillion in existing resources, including expanding emergency loans and grants to more than 100 countries that have sought aid. A U.S. Treasury spokeswoman declined to comment specifically on the SDR allocations, but said the agency supported a variety of efforts at the IMF to provide rapid, targeted assistance to countries in need. "We support accelerating IMF procedures, higher access from the IMF‘s emergency lending facilities, and support from donors for the IMF‘s assistance to low income countries, including grants to help these countries make debt payments to the IMF," the spokeswoman said in an emailed statement. PATIENT APPROACH French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire argued in favor of a new SDR allocation of about $500 billion, saying in a statement to the IMF's steering committee it would provide an extra $16 billion to low-income nations that could be "decisive" in battling the virus. Columbia University professor Joseph Stiglitz, a former World Bank chief economist, said new SDRs would not cost U.S. taxpayers anything. "And if we can help emerging markets and developing countries, it will rebound to us in terms of health and in terms of the economic recovery," he said. IMF officials, while acknowledging that a deal for a new SDR allocation is unlikely this week, are taking a patient approach, hoping to eventually persuade U.S. Treasury officials of the merits of the move. "Nothing is off the table," IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath told Reuters on Tuesday.

sources: the united states is the dominant shareholder of the IMF. the move would give even wealthy countries new assets that are not necessarily needed. the IMF last approved a $250-billion new allocation of SDRs in 2009. the move could provide more flexibility to the 102 countries that have already sought IMF loans. a spokesman for india also opposes a new allocation of SDRs, the sources say.

Negative

https://www.businesstoday.in/markets/commodities/us-dollar-coronavirus-global-equities/story/398931.html

The dollar rose against sterling toward its strongest since at least 1985. The U.S. currency hit the highest in almost three years against the euro. Against the antipodeans, the greenback rose toward a 17-year high against the Australian dollar and approached an 11-year peak against the New Zealand dollar as investors dumped riskier assets. U.S. stock futures and oil prices came under further pressure early in Asian trading, which pushed the dollar higher as more people are placed under lockdown in an effort to contain the virus, traders said. Investors are also hoping for big fiscal spending to mitigate the damage to the global economy, but uncertainty about the spread of the virus is likely to support the dollar in the future. "We've moved from risk off to a phase where major players are competing with each other for the safety of holding dollars in cash," said Yukio Ishizuki, FX strategist at Daiwa Securities in Tokyo. "There are still a lot of investors who need to sell riskier assets, and they want to hold their money in dollars." The dollar rose 0.96% against the pound GBP=D3 to $1.1559, approaching the strongest since at least 1985. The dollar gained 0.33% to EUR=EBS $1.0360, the strongest since April 2017. The greenback closed in on multi-year highs against the Australian AUD=D3 and New Zealand NZD=D3 dollars. Against the yen, the currency rose 0.11% to 110.92. Investors have been liquidating positions in safe-havens and other riskier investments to keep their money in dollars due to the uncertainty caused by the epidemic. Major central banks have ramped up efforts to ease a global dollar funding crunch, but the U.S. currency remains in demand due to the high degree of uncertainty about the unknown flu-like virus. The dollar has also surged against many emerging market currencies, highlighting the growing sense of risk aversion across the globe. Early in Asian trading, the dollar rose to a record high against the Mexican peso MXN. So far this year the dollar is up 26% against Brazil's real BRL, up around 8% against the Korean won KRW and up 15% against the Indonesian rupiah IDR. Republicans and Democrats in the U.S. Senate are trying to complete a deal on a $1 trillion-plus bill aimed at stemming the coronavirus pandemic's economic fallout for workers, industries and small businesses. But there was no sign of an overarching deal between negotiators, despite Republicans' claims of bipartisan agreement on specific issues including unemployment insurance and small business assistance. Nearly one in three Americans were ordered to stay home on Sunday to slow the spread of the disease, while Italy banned internal travel as deaths there reached 5,476. U.S. President Donald Trump has approved disaster deceleration requests from New York and Washington, while St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard warned unemployment could reach 30% unless more was done fiscally. Global markets have been upended in recent weeks as the coronavirus spread from central China and governments responded with increasingly strict restrictions on travel and daily life, disrupting businesses and prompting consumers to stay at home and rein in spending. The virus has now been reported in more than 100 countries and has claimed more than 8,000 lives. Also read: US strengthens emergency measures to counter novel coronavirus threat Also read: Coronavirus update: Global hunt for medicine intensifies

dollar rose against sterling toward its strongest since at least 1985. greenback hit 17-year high against the australian dollar. dollar also surged against the yen, which rose 0.11%. u.s. stock futures and oil prices came under further pressure in early Asian trading. u.s. stock futures and oil prices came under further pressure.

Negative

http://www.financialexpress.com/world-news/china-asks-its-citizens-not-to-travel-to-maldives/1052421/

China today warned its citizens not to travel to the Maldives for holidays due to the political turmoil there, in a setback to beleaguered President Abdulla Yameen whose country’s economy relies heavily on Chinese tourists. The Maldives has plunged into political crisis as the Supreme Court yesterday asked Yameen to comply with its order to release political prisoners and reinstate dissident lawmakers. This led to a tense standoff as Yameen has not yet implemented the apex court’s ruling leading to agitations by the Opposition parties. “China is closely following the developments in the Maldives,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told media here asking the Maldivian government and the political parties to resolve differences through dialogue while maintaining national stability and social order. He, however, declined to join the calls by the United Nations, the US and India asking Yameen who is widely regarded as pro-China to implement the Supreme Court order. “What happened in theMaldives is Maldives’ internal affair. China supports the relevant parties in the Maldives to properly resolve their differences through dialogue and consultation and maintain national stability and social order,” he said. But at the same time he said China has issued a “security reminder” asking its tourists not to travel to the Maldives in view of the situation which could drastically affect the island nation which relies heavily on tourism revenue. China’s travel advisory coming ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday season starting from February 15 is likely to deter thousands of Chinese who travel to the Maldives during the week-long holiday. Chinese tourits constitute about 30 per cent of the Maldives tourist arrivals. The Spring Festival holiday, which includes Chinese New Year celebrations is peak season for Chinese citizens to travel to the Maldives for tourism, Geng said. Currently, over 6,000 Chinese tourists were reportedly holidaying in the island nation. “In light of the relevant situation we advise the Chinese tourists in the Maldives to closely follow the situation and strengthen security awareness. At the same time, we advise those people who plan to go to the Maldives not to travel to go there before the situation get stabilised,” he said. President Yameen in recent years has allowed largescale Chinese investments and signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), which came under sharp criticism from opposition parties and also raised concerns in India due its strategic location in the Indian Ocean. China views the Maldives as key to its Maritime Silk Road project in the Indian Ocean as it has already acquired Hambantota port in Sri Lanka and Djibouti in the Horn of Africa. Former president and current opposition leader Mohamed Nasheed, who was controversially convicted of a terrorism charge and jailed for 13 years in 2015, termed the FTA as “disgraceful” and said it was not in the Maldivian national interest. Nasheed, the country’s first democratically elected leader, was toppled in 2012. He was barred from contesting elections after his 2015 terrorism conviction, which was internationally criticised as politically motivated. He has been in exile since 2016, when he left on prison leave for medical treatment. He is currently in Colombo, meeting Maldivian dissidents based in Sri Lanka.

the maldives has plunged into political crisis as the Supreme Court asked president to comply with its order to release political prisoners and reinstate dissident lawmakers. this led to a tense standoff as Yameen has not yet implemented the apex court’s ruling leading to agitations by the Opposition parties. china has issued a “security reminder” asking its tourists not to travel to the Maldives due to the situation.

Negative

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/hardware/india-has-unprecedented-opportunity-to-be-phone-export-hub-in-post-covid-19-era-icea-ey/articleshow/76322351.cms

Elevate Your Tech Prowess with High-Value Skill Courses Offering College Course Website Northwestern University Kellogg Post Graduate Certificate in Product Management Visit Indian School of Business ISB Professional Certificate in Product Management Visit IIM Lucknow IIML Executive Programme in FinTech, Banking & Applied Risk Management Visit New Delhi: India has an unprecedented opportunity to establish itself as an alternative destination for mobile phone manufacturing and become an export hub as global giants look at de-risking manufacturing from China in the post-COVID-19 era, a strategy document by ICEA-EY said on Thursday. The document, which has been shared with government authorities, has outlined a three-phase ' Restart, Restore and Resurgence ' strategy to help India achieve exports of USD 100 billion in mobile phones and nearly US 40 billion in components by 2025.The document said India appears to have all necessary ingredients to encourage mobile manufacturing at scale and boost exports from the country but what appears to be missing is the policy support to attract lead firms, incentivise production and unveil measures that provide cost competitiveness to industry or help offset the disabilities suffered by Indian firms vis-a-vis Vietnam and China.It is estimated that India suffers from various disabilities like high cost of power, tax and ease of doing business. This renders India almost 10 per cent and 20 per cent less competitive than Vietnam and China, respectively. India must address these disability issues in the long run, it added.In the short run, the government should endeavour to offset these disabilities by providing incentives which are WTO-compliant, easy to implement and help India take off from the export runway, it said.India spent USD 18.7 billion on import of mobile phones and parts, compared to exports of USD 2.0 billion of mobile phones and parts. India Cellular and Electronics Association (ICEA) Chairman Pankaj Mohindroo lauded the government's push to mobile phone manufacturing through production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme, Scheme for Promotion of Manufacturing of Electronic Components and Semiconductors (SPECS) and Modified Electronics Manufacturing Clusters (EMC 2.0) Scheme."The recently announced trilogy of schemes -- PLI, SPECS and EMC 2.0 -- have laid the foundation for starting something big. The impact of the PLI scheme will be visible before the end of 2020-21," he said.The document noted that five companies (Samsung, Apple, Huawei, Oppo and Vivo), which account for over 80 per cent of the mobile phone revenues, globally are already present in India. While they have started assembly in India to primarily serve the domestic market, assembling of mobile phones continues to be centred in China (including Hong Kong) and Vietnam."However, these brands are keen and capable to provide India with global market access. Some of these global brands have begun smartphone exports from India since 2018. They await policy certainty to increase global supply from India," the document said.The spread of COVID-19 and the subsequent lockdown of countries saw supply chains being disrupted, which has forced global firms to de-risk manufacturing out of China and diversify across multiple countries, as against reliance on a single source of production and procurement. Furthermore, the recent trade dispute between the US and China gave India an opportunity to plug itself as the third mobile phone assembler in the world (apart from China and Vietnam)."The post-COVID-19 era might thus present India an unprecedented opportunity to establish itself as an alternative destination for manufacturing to follow on the path of becoming a net exporter," it said adding that India needs to move "purposefully" and approach companies and supply chains in a targeted manner and address their particular concerns with alacrity.Hari Om Rai, chairman and MD of Lava International, said homegrown companies need support in two areas to be able to capture a larger chunk of the market."One is skill building, in terms of design, supply chain and manufacturing. And second is ability to access the markets of the world. I think these two areas, if we can get support, eventually we will be global champions and global champions from India are going to emerge," he said.The document suggested that from May to July 2020, focus may be kept on restarting operations and reaching 100 per cent capacity, and then till November, the country should aim to restore complete normalcy including supply chain, employee workforce, input imports, and normalise operations for both domestic supplies as well as export markets.In the period from December 2020 to 2025, India needs to chart its path towards becoming a leading exporter of mobile phones in the world, while pushing mobile exports as a top ranking Indian export from where it currently stands, it added."Today, India stands at the cusp of a great opportunity to ignite the mobile phone manufacturing, bring global value chain investors in India, and become leading exporters of mobile phones in the world," EY India Indirect Tax Partner Telecom sector Bipin Sapra said.Sapra added that the introduction of the incentive schemes such as PLI, SPECS and EMC will bring resurgence in the manufacturing environment and create a competitive global ecosystem for India to capture the global market share of mobile phones, parts and accessories.

restart, restore and resurgence' strategy to help india achieve exports of USD 100 billion in mobile phones and nearly US 40 billion in components by 2025. india suffers from various disabilities like high cost of power, tax and ease of doing business. this renders India almost 10 per cent and 20 per cent less competitive than Vietnam and China, respectively.

Negative

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert-view/raamdeo-agrawal-on-why-he-is-still-staying-away-from-gold/articleshow/77592047.cms

Unlock Leadership Excellence with a Range of CXO Courses Offering College Course Website IIM Lucknow IIML Chief Operations Officer Programme Visit IIM Lucknow IIML Chief Marketing Officer Programme Visit IIM Lucknow IIML Chief Executive Officer Programme Visit I do not think we are in a very frothy valuation . For equity, there could be pockets of diamond valuation and there could be pockets of brass valuation, forget about silver valuation, says the Chairman, MOFSLLet us start with Berkshire. That is something less domestic, more international and thematic. My thought process is that Buffett in his wisdom is trying to change himself with the changing times. He denounced aviation stocks for 20-25 years and then finally went and embraced all the four airlines at 10% each and finally sold it out, again at a loss. So I only hope gold does not become the same kind of a trade for him.It is a a zero interest rate, zero inflation environment. Earlier, our thinking was that gold is an inflation hedge but there is no inflation. So there is no logical need for a hedge. There could be liquidity. I mean there is no other place to park the money. There are no bonds. But gold is not a yielding asset and maybe there is a fear of inflation coming back but that fear is going on for the last 10 years. I do not have any extra insight that inflation is imminent. I do not see anything else. There is no other reason why gold should go up but maybe the wiser people like Buffett and all are fearful of inflation coming back, which I do not have any clue about. I have learnt one thing from him. If you do not understand something, do not do it. So I would still stay on the side of not understanding gold. I would rather stay away and that would be my way of seeing it.I think both have been driven by very different forces. I would think that bullishness in gold prices are driven by fear of inflation. There is no inflation. There is actually deflationary pressure but there is a massive fear of inflation and you cannot fight with fear.Equities on the other hand are being driven by the fact that there is no yield in the bond side. The 10-year paper is trading at say 60 bps and so effectively, the bond PE is 150. So what is the harm in buying equities? A basket of equity like I am talking about with indices at 20-25 PE multiple which also has growth and 2-2.5% dividend yield. That is the argument for stocks against bonds and this is very logical so far and liquidity is also there. Because of that, if you see the performing part of the equities in the world -- be it FAANG or others -- the growth includes the valuation of equities which are going through the roof.I can see the bond versus equity argument but I do not see that unless this fear is well thought through, that yes there is imminent upsurgence of inflation in the world, the commercial thinking is someday inflation will raise its head, but I am not that competent.We are talking about broad valuation. So valuation at about 65% to GDP. We are at about Rs 152-153 lakh crore market cap on our Rs 200 plus crore kind of GDP in the current year. I do not think we are in a very frothy valuation. There could be pockets of diamond valuation and there could be pockets of brass valuation, forget about silver valuation.The market is always made up of all sorts of things but I do not see that kind of exuberance that we saw in 2008. We have seen three of them. In 1992, you did not have to ask whether markets are overvalued. You do not need these questions in 1992, 2000 for tech companies, in 2008 for the broad market. My market cap to GDP -- let me remind you -- was 180%. What is US today was India in 2008. Our market cap was Rs 73 lakh crore and GDP was Rs 45 lakh crore in 2007-08 when we peaked off. Today my GDP is Rs 200 lakh crore and my market cap is Rs 152 lakh crore. Yes there can be pockets -- a little bit here and there -- but I do not think the broad market is that badly off.

if you do not understand something, do not do it,' says chairman of MOFSLLet. 'there is no inflation. there is deflationary pressure but there is a massive fear of inflation and you cannot fight with fear' 'gold is not a yielding asset and maybe there is a fear of inflation coming back' 'there is no inflation. there is actually deflationary pressure but there is a massive fear of inflation and you cannot fight with fear'

Negative

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world/coronavirus-pandemic-world-bank-urges-countries-to-go-for-comprehensive-policies-to-boost-long-term-growth-5350791.html

The World Bank on Tuesday urged countries to go for comprehensive policies to boost long-term growth along with short term measures to address health emergencies and secure core public services in the wake of the coronavirus crisis, amid indications that 60 million people could be pushed into extreme poverty in 2020. The scope and speed with which the COVID-19 pandemic and economic shutdowns have devastated the poor around the world are unprecedented in modern times, World Bank Group President David Malpass said. "Current estimates show that 60 million people could be pushed into extreme poverty in 2020. These estimates are likely to rise further, with the reopening of advanced economies the primary determinant," he told reporters during a conference call as the World Bank released analytical chapters from its flagship Global Economic Prospects report. Noting that the coronavirus pandemic and the economic shutdowns are dealing a severe blow to the global economy, especially poorer countries, the report said developing nations and the international community can take steps now to speed up recovery after the worst of the health crisis has passed and blunt long-term adverse effects. "Policy choices made today - including greater debt transparency to invite new investment, faster advances in digital connectivity, and a major expansion of cash safety nets for the poor - will help limit the damage and build a stronger recovery," Malpass said. COVID-19 Vaccine Frequently Asked Questions View more How does a vaccine work? A vaccine works by mimicking a natural infection. A vaccine not only induces immune response to protect people from any future COVID-19 infection, but also helps quickly build herd immunity to put an end to the pandemic. Herd immunity occurs when a sufficient percentage of a population becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely. The good news is that SARS-CoV-2 virus has been fairly stable, which increases the viability of a vaccine. How many types of vaccines are there? There are broadly four types of vaccine — one, a vaccine based on the whole virus (this could be either inactivated, or an attenuated [weakened] virus vaccine); two, a non-replicating viral vector vaccine that uses a benign virus as vector that carries the antigen of SARS-CoV; three, nucleic-acid vaccines that have genetic material like DNA and RNA of antigens like spike protein given to a person, helping human cells decode genetic material and produce the vaccine; and four, protein subunit vaccine wherein the recombinant proteins of SARS-COV-2 along with an adjuvant (booster) is given as a vaccine. What does it take to develop a vaccine of this kind? Vaccine development is a long, complex process. Unlike drugs that are given to people with a diseased, vaccines are given to healthy people and also vulnerable sections such as children, pregnant women and the elderly. So rigorous tests are compulsory. History says that the fastest time it took to develop a vaccine is five years, but it usually takes double or sometimes triple that time. View more Show "The financing and building of productive infrastructure are among the hardest-to-solve development challenges in the post-pandemic recovery. We need to see measures to speed litigation and the resolution of bankruptcies and reform the costly subsidies, monopolies and protected state-owned enterprises that have slowed development," he said. Short-term response measures to address the health emergency and secure core public services will need to be accompanied by comprehensive policies to boost long-term growth, including by improving governance and business environments, and expanding and improving the results of investment in education and public health, the World Bank report said. To make future economies more resilient, many countries will need systems that can build and retain more human and physical capital during the recovery - using policies that reflect and encourage the post-pandemic need for new types of jobs, businesses and governance systems, it said. According to the report, in the long-term, the pandemic will leave lasting damage through multiple channels, including lower investment; erosion of physical and human capital due to closure of businesses and loss of schooling and jobs; and a retreat from global trade and supply linkages. These effects will lower potential output - the output an economy can sustain at full employment and capacity - and labor productivity well into the future. Pre-existing vulnerabilities, fading demographic dividends, and structural bottlenecks will amplify the long-term damage of deep recessions associated with the pandemic, it said. "When the pandemic struck, many emerging and developing economies were already vulnerable due to record-high debt levels and much weaker growth. Combined with structural bottlenecks, this will amplify the long-term damage of deep recessions associated with the pandemic," said Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, World Bank Vice President for Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions. "Urgent measures are needed to limit the damage, rebuild the economy, and make growth more robust, resilient and sustainable," Pazarbasioglu said. During the recovery period, countries will need to calibrate the winding down of public support and should be targeting broader development challenges. The Bank analysis discusses the importance of allowing an orderly allocation of new capital toward sectors that are productive in the new post-pandemic structures that emerge. To succeed in this, countries will need reforms that allow capital and labour to adjust relatively fast - by speeding the resolution of disputes, reducing regulatory barriers, and reforming the costly subsidies, monopolies and protected state-owned enterprises that have slowed development, the report said. Follow our full coverage of the coronavirus pandemic here.

the world bank urges countries to go for comprehensive policies to boost long-term growth. the scope and speed with which the coronavirus pandemic has devastated the poor are unprecedented in modern times. estimates show 60 million people could be pushed into extreme poverty in 2020. the world bank releases its flagship global economic prospects report. the report says developing nations and the international community can take steps now to speed up recovery.

Negative

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world/shunning-international-tax-talks-could-trigger-trade-war-oecd-5425141.html

Failure to work towards an international deal on taxing big digital companies could trigger a dangerous trade war, the OECD said on Thursday, urging countries to remain engaged in talks after Washington announced it was pulling out of them for now. "Absent a multilateral solution, more countries will take unilateral measures and those that have them already may no longer continue to hold them back," OECD Secretary General Angel Gurria said in a statement. "This, in turn, would trigger tax disputes and, inevitably, heightened trade tensions. A trade war, especially at this point in time, where the world economy is going through a historical downturn, would hurt the economy, jobs and confidence even further," he added.

OECD urges countries to work towards an international deal on taxing big digital companies. a trade war would hurt the economy, jobs and confidence, secretary general says. a trade war would hurt the economy, jobs and confidence even further, he adds. the u.s. has pulled out of the talks for now. a deal would tax big digital companies and create a tax loophole.

Negative

https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/coronavirus-scare-foreign-tourist-arrivals-hit-record-low-in-february/story/399590.html

The devastating impact of coronavirus on tourism sector can be gauged with the foreign tourist arrivals data. In February 2020, 1.01 million foreign tourists arrived in India compared to 1.08 million in February 2019, registering a year-on-year (y-o-y) de-growth of -6.6 per cent. This was the sharpest decline since 2015 and also the first in the month of February. In January it grew 1.3 per cent on a y-o-y basis. On a month-on-month (m-o-m) basis, tourists' arrivals in February fell 9.2 per cent compared to 8.9 per cent in January 2020. Though the intensity of the fall is hard to ignore, but going by the m-o-m data since 2015 this may not be a very unusual trend. India normally observes a healthy flow (a double-digit growth) of foreign tourists during October, November and December, which starts coming down from January till May and again improves during monsoons. Foreign exchange earnings (FEEs) during the month were Rs 18,281 crore as compared to Rs 17,912 crore in February 2019, posting a scanty y-o-y growth of 2.1 per cent. This was after a double-digit y-o-y growth since September 2019. The growth rate in FEEs during January- February 2020 was 7.1 per cent over the corresponding period last year. FEEs in US$ terms in February was US$ 2.6 billion compared to US$ 2.5 billion during the month of February 2019. Bangladesh tops the charts for foreign tourist arrivals in the country with highest share of 21.4 per cent in 2018. This was followed by tourists from United States with a share of 13.3 per cent and United Kingdom with 9.75 per cent. The top ten source countries accounted for nearly 66 per cent of tourist's inflow including Australia (3.28 per cent) and China (2.67 per cent). What started as an epidemic in China has now become a global pandemic. China reported its first COVID-19 case to the World Health Organisation on December 31, 2019 and since then the count has been rising. There have now been over 5.75 lakhs confirmed COVID-19 cases and 26,654 deaths globally. By end of January, China had 9,720 confirmed coronavirus cases and there were only 106 confirmed cases outside China from 19 countries. The percentage share of foreign tourist arrivals in India during January among the top 15 source countries was highest from Bangladesh (18.68 per cent) followed by USA (15.34 per cent), UK (9.68 per cent). Canada had a share of 4.51 per cent, Australia (4.01 per cent), China (2.86 per cent) and France (2.54 per cent). As on February, the COVID-19 cases in China jumped to 79,394 with 6,009 confirmed cases outside China. This restricted the inflow of tourists from China too as the country disappeared from India's top 15 list in the February. The highest was again from Bangladesh with 21.19 per cent share followed by USA (12.68 per cent), UK (11.39 per cent) and Canada (4.46 per cent). Total number of coronavirus cases in India has risen to 979 claiming 25 lives. The government has imposed a 21-day lockdown in the whole country on March 25th. All international passenger flight operations will remain closed till April 14 in the wake of the three-week nationwide lockdown imposed in light of the coronavirus outbreak in the country. As per the report of 3rd Tourism Satellite Account for India prepared in 2018 for the reference year 2015-16(using new base year, 2011-12 figures of CSO) the contribution of tourism to GDP was estimated around 5.2 per cent in 2015/16. With a lockdown ahead in India and restricted movements of people across the globe, tourist arrivals will be badly hit in the month of March and April and so will the foreign exchange earnings. Now, with roughly a 5 per cent share one can imagine the loss to the economy. Also read: BS-VI norms: Over 40 diesel cars, SUVs to leave showrooms in April Also read: Coronavirus: PM Modi advises people to perform yoga during lockdown; shares video

india recorded a year-on-year (y-o-y) de-growth of -6.6 per cent in February 2020. this was the sharpest decline since 2015 and also the first in the month of February. in January it grew 1.3 per cent on a y-o-y basis. in the month-on-month (m-o-m) basis, tourists' arrivals in February fell 9.2 per cent compared to 8.9 per cent in January 2020.

Negative

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/pharmaceuticals/zydus-gets-final-nod-from-usfda-for-anti-bacterial-drug/articleshow/64426641.cms

WhatsAppening? Telcos Call Out Tech Cos over Biz SMSes An industry grouping representing India’s top three telcos has accused global consumer-technology majors, such as Microsoft and Amazon, of “presumably circumventing and bypassing the legal telecom route” by using WhatsApp and other unregulated platforms to send enterprise messages to customers, causing a likely ₹3,000-crore annual revenue loss to both the Centre and the service providers. Apple asked to Join CERT-In Probe into iPhone Hacking Bid The government has asked Apple to join a probe into the alleged state-sponsored hacking attempts on iPhones belonging to prominent Indians, including some members of the opposition in Parliament, according to S Krishnan, secretary, ministry of electronics and information technology.

telcos accuse tech giants of using unregulated platforms to send messages. government asks apple to join probe into alleged state-sponsored hacking bid. government asks apple to join probe into alleged hacking bids. telcos say they are causing 3,000-crore annual revenue loss. telcos say they are 'circumventing and bypassing the legal telecom route'

Negative

https://www.businesstoday.in/magazine/cover-story/no-exemption-from-pain/story/402205.html

Ever wondered why your neighbourhood chicken shop does not have your favourite meat, or even if it does, is pricing it too high? Amit Saraogi, Managing Director of Kolkata-based Rs 550 crore Anmol Feeds Pvt Ltd, a feed supplier to the poultry industry, says it is the complete breakdown of India's chicken economy - hatcheries to feed suppliers to commercial farms to bulk suppliers to retailers - that has caused this crisis. The exemption it enjoys as part of the agriculture and allied sector has not helped either. The problem started with a rumour in February that the bird may spread cor0navirus. This hit demand during the month. By the time the lockdown was announced in March, "the Indian poultry industry had suffered a Rs 15,000 crore loss as bulk suppliers abandoned the birds and farmers sold them for almost free," says Saraogi. The demand is limping back but there is another problem. There are few birds, which means less demand for poultry feed, but Saraogi is struggling to meet even this demand as operations of his raw material suppliers - solvent companies that produce maize gluten, rice bran oil, etc - have been hit. The reason: they are not getting their raw material as soybean harvest, operations of rice millers, etc, have been hit due to labour shortage, administrative restrictions and shortage of trucks and truck drivers. The cash flow situation in the poultry industry is so bad that Saraogi says "it will take at least three months, after the lockdown gets over completely, for it to normalise". Not all industries that have been allowed to function during the lockdown are facing such a catastrophic situation, but on April 4, Pawan Kumar Agarwal, Secretary of the Consumer Affairs Department of the government of India, shared a suggestive list of 71 companies that deal in essential goods with chief secretaries of all states and Union Territories. The idea was to ensure that none of these companies faced any difficulty in resuming production and moving goods across the country. The list included 48 food and grocery companies like Adani Wilmar Ltd, Britannia India Ltd and Pepsico India, 17 organised retail chains like Reliance Fresh and Mother Dairy, and seven e-commerce firms, including Amazon, Flipkart and Swiggy. Despite the clear instructions, none of these players can claim seamless, full-fledged operations across India. For instance, PepsiCo could make its food plants in Punjab and Maharashtra operational, but the one in West Bengal is awaiting clearance to restart operations even as Business Today goes to press. With central advisories themselves being revised often, and implementation patchy across states, even the agri-food sector which, along with pharmaceutical, healthcare and logistics, was the first to be exempted from the lockdown, has hardly resumed full-fledged operations. Technically, over 30 per cent of India's $2.7 trillion economy was allowed to function from April 20 onwards after the government included more activities in the exempted list, including manufacturing in non-municipal areas and access control areas like SEZs, EOUs and industrial townships, apart from IT and IT enabled services and real estate. However, despite three dozen directives from the home ministry for smooth running of essential services since the lockdown was announced on March 24, the problem persists. "Several companies have reported difficulties in getting labour. Local administrations should be advised to facilitate availability of labour in factories, warehouses and transportation and distribution operations," notes Consumer Affairs Secretary Agarwal. The root causes of most problems are restrictions on movement of people, and their unwillingness to do work that involves moving across the country, both because of genuine health concerns. Shortage of truck drivers, farm labourers and warehouse workers is resulting in disruption of supply chains, non-availability of raw materials and less production. "Health is a state subject. So, whatever be the intent and content of the central directives, one cannot stop state governments from asking truck drivers who travel inter-state to quarantine themselves for 14 days after they return. You cannot stop workers returning home from factories in nearby states from being asked to isolate themselves for weeks. The result is that drivers are not willing to go inter-state and workers are unwilling to go to factories," says a representative of a food company. . As it is, healthcare workers are getting ostracised in their residential colonies, some even manhandled, making working even in health facilities like hospitals risky, impacting the performance of the sector. Fear rules. Ill Health Nipun Jain, partner of Pharmchem, a small scale pharmaceutical company that makes antibiotics such as erythromycin and clarithromycin in Bahadurgarh, Haryana, has gone slow on production despite operational freedom to the pharmaceutical sector. He has a pass that allows him to cross the Delhi-Haryana border to go to his factory from Delhi. But this cannot help him get the required raw material at a competitive price and export finished goods. First, prices of key raw materials, imported from China, have increased. "Erythromycin has gone up from less than $100 a kilo to $130 a kilo. Clarithromycin is costing $170 a kilo, up from $130 a kilo in the pre-lockdown period," says Jain. Even if he is willing to pay, he cannot buy the quantity he requires, as truck operators are refusing to carry less than full load. "Earlier, booking offices of transport firms used to consolidate 10 small orders and fill the truck. Now, their offices are closed. If I have to buy some material from Mumbai, say 500 kilos, no one will deliver it. The truck owners say they have less drivers and trucks, hence can only take orders for full load (at least nine tonnes). If I have less than that, what do I do?," he asks. Jain has also decided against exporting as cargo flights are charging exorbitant rates. "Unless they offer the same price as before the lockdown, we will be left with no margin. If you are charging us three times more, how will we send our goods? I am waiting for the freight rate to become normal." The bigger pharmaceutical companies in India are slightly better off than the smaller ones. Sudarshan Jain, Secretary General of the Indian Pharmaceutical Alliance (IPA), says the industry has managed to sustain production amid all challenges. The alliance is a group of 24 leading Indian pharmaceutical companies that account for over 80 per cent of the country's exports of drugs and pharmaceuticals and 57 per cent of the domestic market. "At this moment, 55-56 per cent production is happening, which is big, as inter-state movement is not all that smooth in (manufacturing hubs like) Baddi (Himachal Pradesh) and Daman (Union Territory). There are other centres where production has gone up to 70- 80 per cent," says Jain. He says Indian export-oriented units are also running well in Hyderabad and Vizag. "Mumbai has a problem of employees. But still, we are improving, and hopefully we should be better soon," he says. IPA's Jain also says that no shortage of medicines has been reported, both from within the country and from global customers. "We have good inventory, and though there is a slight delay in delivery, we are better than many other markets. The credit goes to the good coordination between the government and the industry as the government has been coming out with notifications making sure that the production happens." The IPA functionary, however, says that the smaller and ancillary companies are facing issues like shortage of liquidity and people. "Wherever possible, we are working with them." However, in the hospital sector, even the big corporate hospitals are pleading for government help. Gurgaon-based Paras Healthcare manages seven hospitals in four states. Its hospital bed occupancy rate has shrunk to 25 per cent. The outpatient department is also getting fewer patients. "We are going to incur humongous losses. Despite that we have transformed our Ranchi (Jharkhand) facility into a COVID hospital," says Dr. Dharminder Nagar, Managing Director, Paras. The disease outbreak and the subsequent lockdown have kept people away from hospitals for small ailments and non-critical surgical procedures. Hospitals, however, need to maintain staff and infrastructure as they may be roped in by governments to contain coronavirus. As part of the National Healthcare Committee of industry chamber CII, Nagar estimates about Rs 7,300 crore monthly loss to the Indian private healthcare sector for at least three months in a row since March. "Even larger players like us can, maybe, survive for a month or two, but a longer period will be challenging even for us," he says. In a letter to the central government, the United Nurses Association of India, a body that represents over five lakh nurses in the country, has alleged that small nursing homes are trimming operations or shutting down and asking staff to leave or work for less pay. Broken Supply Chain The logistics industry cuts across sectors. Realising its critical role, the government had allowed inter-state movement of trucks carrying goods, both essential and non-essential, in the initial days of the lockdown itself. However, ground realities are different. "Movement of trucks is only 5-10 per cent," says Vineet Agarwal, Managing Director of Transport Corporation of India Ltd. "We still have 800-1,000 trucks on the road which had not reached their destinations pre-lockdown. There could be some movement in and out of big cities but inter-state movements are negligible," says Agarwal, adding that the drivers are afraid of moving. "If he goes to a manufacturing zone, he has to unload the truck, but there is no labour. Even if he is able to do that, he is not sure where he will get the next load from, or where he will get his food from. Some more manufacturing will happen (after the April 20 relaxation) but it will take at least three weeks for things to get back to a semblance of normalcy once the lockdown is completely over," he adds. The silver lining is rail container movement. Since loading and unloading happens locally, and goods are essentially foodgrains and pulses for COVID-19 relief supplies, it is operating at 50 per cent. But that can hardly replace the millions of trucks that are off the road at the moment. The April 20 relaxation has definitely allowed several core manufacturers to restart plants. But business is not just about manufacturing. "We are going supplier by supplier to see what their constraints are. A car is a sum total of thousands of parts and we have over 75 suppliers over the country. A significant number is in Pune and nearby industrial area which, as you know, is a hotspot. So, we have to see if factories there are allowed to reopen, because even if one part is not being supplied to us, it doesn't matter if all other factories can operate. It is only after we restart operations and things stabilise in the next two-three months that we will need to look at the problem on the demand side," says Rajeev Chaba, President and Managing Director of MG Motor. Unlike other automobile makers, MG is sitting on a backlog of 15,500 bookings for its SUV Hector alone. Of all the segments that have been allowed to function, IT and IT enabled services, major earners of foreign exchange revenues, are the most promising. The government has allowed up to 50 per cent of their employees to work from offices. However, it may take some time before companies would want their employees - who are primarily working from home at the moment - to return to offices. "Ninety three per cent of our employees are approved to work from home by our customers and 90 per cent are engaged in delivering projects and services globally to our customers in a work from home mode," says Abidali Neemuchwala, CEO and MD of Wipro Ltd, giving a clear indication of the priorities of the IT industry. The business uncertainty despite permission to work and ability to manage much of their business remotely is clearly visible among India's IT majors. Infosys CEO Salil Parekh says: "Given the uncertain environment due to the global pandemic and client businesses marred by volatility, we do not feel it would be appropriate for us to provide an annual guidance at this stage." While Congnizant has withdrawn its full-year guidance for 2020, Wipro has skipped revenue guidance for the first quarter of the current financial year. One roadblock to resuming full-fledged operations is the frequent changes in government directives. A day after e-commerce companies like Amazon announced that they will start delivering non-essential goods (read mobile phones, accessories and other electronic devices for personal use), the government reversed its stand by stating that only essential commodities will be allowed. E-tail of essential goods is exempt but, here too, delivery is a major problem. Any person attempting to order groceries from Bigbasket.com during the lockdown will not miss the scroll that moves at the top. "Dear customer, slots may not be available currently. We are working hard to ensure customers find slots." In a recent tweet, Albinder Dhindsa, co-founder, Grofers, said the online grocer, with a huge backlog of pending orders, is looking for more manpower. "If your company has idling semi-skilled workforce that can do with more income and work in a safe environment, please reach out to @Grofers. We are hiring in our warehouses to increase throughout in all cities," he tweeted. In fact, a report by LocalCircles, a community social media platform, suggests that the percentage of consumers who were able to find essentials on e-commerce platforms was less than half, 41 per cent, on March 30, though marginally up from 39 per cent on March 25. The second issue is the very nature of the disease outbreak. Today's hotspot (an area where you have COVID-19 patients) may tomorrow be a green zone (where you dont have positive patients), and vice versa. In other words, no company can restart operations thinking it can continue from that moment onwards. The movement may be restricted any time. It's the virus that takes the call. Rajesh Srivastava, MD, Rabo Equity Advisors, has a suggestion that is perhaps sound during these uncertain times. And it is not linked to the partial, conditional and reversible freedom the government offers to companies today. "Let's assume things (the viral outbreak) get back to normalcy from July onwards, and then it will take two more quarters for businesses to normalise. In other words, you start rebooting your business from the second quarter of FY21, and start normal business operations from January 1, 2021," he says. Srivastava, a veteran in food processing business advisory, is talking about the sector that he knows well. But it could very well be an analogy that works for many other sectors too. Srivastava has some good news, at least for the food processing business. "The silver lining is that when it opens up, there will be pent-up demand as today, the demand is not extinguished, it's only suppressed. I expect a demand explosion for secondary processed food, the ready to eat, ready to cook, frozen food. My guess is growth will be huge," he adds. Its hope alone that will drive businesses and consumers, at least for now. (With inputs from Rukmini Rao, Sumant Banerji and Ajita Shashidhar) @joecmathew

the poultry industry is struggling to meet the demand for feed. operations of solvent companies that produce maize gluten, rice bran oil, etc. have been hit due to labour shortage, administrative restrictions and shortage of trucks and truck drivers. the list included 48 food and grocery companies like Adani Wilmar Ltd, Britannia India Ltd and Pepsico India. it also included 17 organised retail chains like Reliance Fresh and Mother Dairy.

Negative

https://www.financialexpress.com/investing-abroad/stockal-specials/say-yes-to-investing-in-the-market-and-no-to-the-timing/1952364/

Today let us discuss importance of staying invested in market at all times. Human psychology often causes us to be overly bullish or bearish depending on the overall market’s existing trend. As a result, when the prevailing sentiment is optimistic in nature, investors tend to plough in more money into the market and tend to pull out money, often as a fire-sale, when sentiment turns pessimistic. We believe that timing the market is extremely difficult for even the savviest of investors and almost next to impossible. We believe that in absence of a crystal ball, the best alternative to improve returns is to continue to stay invested in the markets at all times. To support this hypothesis, we analysed the impact of moving out funds off the market for a range of time periods. To illustrate, we used S&P 500 data starting from 01-Jan-2000 to 31-Dec-2019. Investing in the S&P 500 is often done through SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). This exchange traded fund (ETF) is one of the most preferred options to mimic exposure to the S&P 500 market index. The below chart shows the performance of SPY starting from 2000 till the start of this year. The SPY has seen multiple swings over the past 20 years and despite various bouts of volatility and downturns, has delivered good returns to investors. Notable events include the impact of dotcom bust during the 2000s and the financial collapse of 2008. The below chart shows the daily returns of the SPY. As observed, daily returns of the SPY have varied a lot. There have been periods of calm where the swings in daily returns have been small and during times of market volatility, the swings have been extremely huge. Particularly huge swings were observed in 2008 to 2010 as the markets recovered from the financial crisis. Now, let’s look at the performance on the overall returns to an investor who was off the market due to a reactionary response to the overall market trend. As evident from the table above, an investor participating in the markets at all times would have realized a healthy annualized return of 6.24% (in dollars terms… i.e. without considering appreciation of the USD against INR!). Contrast that with an investor who missed the ten best days of the market may have realized a measly return of 2.45%. Investors who miss days would actually lose money! So, Say YES to investing in the market… Say NO to timing! Stay Invested! Stay Safe!

human psychology often causes us to be overly bullish or bearish depending on the overall market’s existing trend. when the prevailing sentiment is optimistic, investors tend to plough in more money into the market and tend to pull out money, often as a fire-sale, when sentiment turns pessimistic. to support this hypothesis, we analysed the impact of moving out funds off the market for a range of time periods.

Negative

https://www.financialexpress.com/market/asian-markets-a-reluctant-spectator-to-us-political-theatre/1423215/

Asian stocks were subdued on Monday as investors fretted that political instability in the United States was leaving the country rudderless at a time when the global economy was showing signs of faltering. Moves were limited by a holiday in Japan while many bourses are set to close early for Christmas. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost 0.5 percent to its lowest in seven weeks. Yet Chinese blue chips managed to edge up 0.2 percent, while E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 recouped early losses to rise 0.4 percent. U.S. President Donald Trump’s budget director and chief of staff on Sunday said the partial U.S. government shutdown could continue into January, when the new Congress convenes and Democrats take over the House of Representatives. READ ALSO | Oil eases on oversupply concerns ahead of holiday Trump on Sunday said he was replacing Defense Secretary Jim Mattis two months early, a move officials said was driven by the president’s anger at Mattis’ resignation letter and its rebuke of his foreign policy. Sources also told Reuters Trump has privately discussed the possibility of firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, a move that would likely roil financial markets. READ ALSO | Share market LIVE updates: Sensex, Nifty may open mildly higher; Infosys, Indigo, Bandhan Bank in focus Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin felt it necessary to personally call the heads of the six largest U.S. banks to calm nerves and made plans to convene a group of officials known as the “Plunge Protection Team.” “It provides more than enough fodder for perceptions of chaos and instability in the White House,” said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at NAB. “At the same time, the government shutdown offers a true foretaste of what lies ahead once the new Congress in sworn in on January 3.” GLOBAL SLOWDOWN The political uncertainty has only added to the air of risk aversion, punishing equities to the benefit of bonds. The Nasdaq has fallen nearly 22 percent from its Aug. 29 high and into bear territory, while the S&P 500 was on track for its worst December since the Great Depression. At the same time 10-year Treasury yields were near their lowest since August at 2.79 percent, having fallen over 40 basis points in just six weeks. The gap between two- and 10-year yields has shrunk to only 14 basis points, a flattening of the curve that has sometimes heralded economic turning points in the past. “Many of the financial and economic indicators that turn first around business cycle peaks are now flashing red in advanced economies,” warned Simon MacAdam, global economist as Capital Economics. “This is consistent with our view that the recent loss of momentum in the world economy will develop into a more severe slowdown in 2019.” The flight to safe havens was again boosting the Japanese yen, with the dollar near a three-month trough at 111.02 yen on Monday. It fared better on the euro, which was undermined by a run of poor data out of Europe. The single currency hovered at $1.1376, after being as high as $1.1485 last week. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar index was a shade softer at 96.835. In commodity markets, gold held near its recent six-month peak as the dollar eased and the threat of higher U.S. interest rates waned. Spot gold stood at $1,261.05 per ounce. Oil prices were near their lowest since the third quarter of 2017, having shed no less than 11 percent last week. U.S. crude was last unchanged at $45.59 a barrel, while Brent dipped 12 cents to $53.70.

a holiday in japan limited Asian stocks to a halt. the u.s. government shutdown could continue into the new year. the u.s. economy is showing signs of faltering. a u.s. treasury analyst says the economy is "not a stable place" in the world. a u.s. treasury analyst says the economy is "not a stable place"

Negative

https://www.financialexpress.com/market/share-market-today-live-updates-sensex-nifty-rupee-vs-dollar-economy-requires-rs-4-5-trn-fiscal-support-ficci-nirmala-sitharaman-stimulus-package-ril-coronavirus-reliance-jio-may-12-tuesday/1955825/

Share Market News Today | Sensex, Nifty, Share Prices Highlights: Domestic equity market benchmarks BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 trimmed their opening losses and settled over half a per cent down on Tuesday. BSE Sensex ended the session 190 points or 0.60 per cent down at 31,371, while the Nifty 50 index slipped below 9,200 to finish at 9,196. 10 stocks out of 30 Sensex stocks ended in negative territory. RIL was the top Sensex loser, down 6.12 per cent, followed by Asian Paints, Kotak Mahindra Bank and HUL. On the flip side, NTPC was the top Sensex gainer with a growth of 5.71 per cent. Bharti Airtel, ITC, Power Grid were among other gainers on the index. Most of the sectoral indices traded in green. Nifty Pharma index fell 0.65 per cent weighed down by Piramal Enterprises, Cipla and Biocon. Conversely, Nifty Metal gained over a per cent led by Vedanta, JSW Steel and Hindalco Industries. Seeking immediate support for the Indian economy hit by COVID-19, industry body Ficci said additional fiscal support of Rs 4.5 lakh crore is required at the current juncture besides a quick release of Rs 2.5 lakh crore stuck in refunds and other government payments. In a letter to Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, Ficci President Sangita Reddy also made a case for the need to create a self-sufficiency fund for innovation, construction and manufacturing clusters to make use of the emerging opportunities in the wake of disruption in global supply chain.

Sensex and Nifty 50 end session 190 points or 0.60 per cent down on Tuesday. NTPC top Sensex gainer with growth of 5.71 per cent. most sectoral indices traded in green. industry body Ficci seeks immediate support for the Indian economy hit by COVID-19. a self-sufficiency fund for innovation, construction and manufacturing clusters is needed.

Negative

https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/ustr-report-based-on-unverified-inputs-and-defamatory-in-nature-snapdeal-on-notorious-markets-list/1944775/

Snapdeal, one of India’s largest e-commerce companies, on Thursday said the report of the US Trade Representatives that placed it in the Notorious Markets List for counterfeiting and piracy, is based on “unverified inputs” and is “defamatory” in nature. In its annual edition of Notorious Markets List for counterfeiting and piracy, the USTR said on Wednesday that Snapdeal is known as a place to purchase counterfeit watches and shoes. According to a November 2018 survey, 37 per cent of its customers reported that they had received a counterfeit product from Snapdeal, the USTR said. Responding to the USTR’s move, a Snapdeal spokesperson said: “The comments made in the report in respect of Snapdeal are factually incorrect in most aspects, are based on unverified inputs and are defamatory in nature. “The comments made in the report in respect of Snapdeal are factually incorrect in most aspects, are based on unverified inputs and are defamatory in nature,” the spokesperson said. Snapdeal along with four Indian shopping complexes have figured in the US’ 2020 edition of the Notorious Markets List. Other than Snapdeal, the four markets are Tank Road in Delhi, Heera Panna in Mumbai, Kidderpore in Kolkata and Millennium Centre in Aizawl. “In July 2019, Snapdeal’s founders were arrested for selling counterfeit products,” the USTR claimed. Right holders have also sued Snapdeal for selling counterfeit goods,” said the report. In a statement, the spokesperson of the online marketplace said that the company firmly disagrees with the findings of the report and specifically in its observations relating to Snapdeal. The report also ignores the extensive and on-going efforts by various marketplaces to collaborate with brands towards the protection of intellectual property on online marketplaces, said the spokesperson. As India’s third-largest marketplace, Snapdeal operates a robust anti-counterfeit programme – Brand Shield – that enables easy reporting and takedown of listings of counterfeits and delisting of defaulting sellers, it asserted, adding that it has well-defined measures to verify the identity of sellers based on government registrations. Snapdeal works closely with global and leading Indian brands and with law enforcement authorities to provide information wherever required to support any effort to enforce the legal rights of the brand owners, the spokesperson said. According to the spokesperson, Snapdeal is also an active member of the International Trademark Association, a global alliance spanning 7200 members across 187 countries, including large brand owners, small and medium enterprises, government offices, non-profits, among others. In all, the US Trade Representatives’ (USTR) annual list has 38 online markets and 34 physical markets that are reported to engage in or facilitate substantial trademark counterfeiting and copyright piracy. The report released by USTR seeks to cast aspersions on many of the world’s leading online marketplaces, including Amazon, Pinduoduo, Shopee, Snapdeal, Taobao, Tokopedia and many more, the spokesperson said. The spokesperson claimed that the USTR report is based on a limited understanding of the business models of online marketplaces and ignores the roles and responsibilities of intermediaries under the law in various jurisdictions with respect to each of the models. Further, the process of collating such inputs by the office of the USTR is neither objective nor inclusive, the spokesperson said.

Snapdeal has been placed in the notorious markets list for counterfeiting and piracy. the online marketplace has been ranked in the us' 2020 edition. the report is based on 'unverified inputs' and is 'defamatory' in nature. the company has firmly disagreed with the findings of the report. the report also ignores efforts by various marketplaces to collaborate with brands towards the protection of intellectual property on online marketplaces.

Negative

https://www.financialexpress.com/market/sensex-nifty-gain-5-after-3-day-trading-holiday-check-whats-driving-this-rally-on-d-street-today/1920990/

After a three-day trading holiday, headline indices Sensex and Nifty started the week with a uptick of nearly 5 per cent on Tuesday mirroring the gains in the global markets. S&P BSE Sensex was trading 1,325 points or 4.80 per cent to 28,961, while the broader Nifty 50 index was ruling at 8,446, up 363 points or 4.5 per cent higher. “Traders should continue with the “sell on rise” approach and prefer trading through options strategies. At the same time, investors should keep their shopping list handy and utilise further correction to accumulate fundamentally sound counters in a staggered manner. We believe the market trend will continue to remain challenging until the fresh cases start to decline,” Ajit Mishra, VP – Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said. IndusInd Bank gains 18%: As many as 29 stocks out of 30 Sensex stocks were trading green today, with IndusInd Bank as the top gainer, up 18 per cent to Rs 370, followed by M&M, Axis Bank and Sun Pharma. While Bajaj Finance was the only loser on the pack, down 2.64 per cent. All sectoral indices trade higher: All the Nifty sectoral indices were trading higher today with Nifty Private Bank index leading the gains, up 6.68 per cent driven by IndusInd Bank, Axis Bank and ICICI Bank. Similarly, Nifty IT index was up 5.26 per cent with HCL Tech, Infosys and TCS as the top index gainers. Global markets: Asian stocks climbed tracking gains on Wall Street on signs of a slowdown in coronavirus-related deaths. Nikkei futures opened lower but were 2.3% above the cash close. The yen eased 0.01% as traders awaited more details on the government’s stimulus package. US stocks rocketed higher on Monday, with each of the major indexes rallying at least 7%, after a fall in the daily death toll in New York, fueled optimism a leveling off of the pandemic was on the horizon, Reuters reported. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1,627.46 points, or 7.73%, to 22,679.99, the S&P 500 gained 175.03 points, or 7.03%, to 2,663.68 and the Nasdaq Composite added 540.16 points, or 7.33%, to 7,913.24. Gold prices touch record high- Gold June futures were up 3.19 per cent or Rs 1,393 to Rs 45,115 per 10 grams at around 9.40 am. It scaled an all-time high of Rs 45,724 at the open. Silver May futures were up 5.21 per cent or Rs 2,146 to Rs 43,369 per kg on MCX.

Sensex and nifty started the week with a 5% uptick. broader Nifty 50 index ruling at 8,446, up 363 points or 4.5 per cent. 'traders should continue with the "sell on rise" approach,' says analyst. 'we believe the market trend will continue to remain challenging until the fresh cases start to decline'

Negative

http://www.financialexpress.com/market/similar-to-bond-yields-fears-related-to-ongoing-trade-war-may-end-soon-says-market-expert-sandip-sabharwal/1126328/

The ongoing global trade war between US and China – two of the biggest economies in the world – have injected fears in the stock markets and investors alike in the past few weeks. Not only are the investors confused on how to go about it, the volatility has increased manifold in the bourses. However, the trade war fears will soon wane away, believes veteran market investors Sandip Sabharwal, bringing back normalcy to the markets. In an interview with ET Now, Sandip Sabharwal said that fears related with ongoing trade wars will die out exactly the same as as what happened in the case of rising bond yields in the past few weeks. The macro are bound to improve and markets are most likely to move on an upward bias as a result, he added. “Consolidation is likely to get over soon and set the tone for fresh move up,” Sandip Sabharwal told ET Now on Monday. Sharing his market outlook going ahead, the market expert said that cheap construction and industries are most likely to lead the upward surge in the market going ahead.

the ongoing global trade war between US and China has injected fears in the stock markets and investors alike in the past few weeks. veteran market investors Sandip Sabharwal believes that the trade war fears will soon wane away, bringing back normalcy to the markets. cheap construction and industries are most likely to lead the upward surge in the market going ahead, he said.

Negative

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world/poll-americans-are-the-unhappiest-theyve-been-in-50-years-5413761.html

It's been a rough year for the American psyche. Folks in the U.S. are more unhappy today than they've been in nearly 50 years. This bold — yet unsurprising — conclusion comes from the COVID Response Tracking Study, conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago. It finds that just 14% of American adults say they're very happy, down from 31% who said the same in 2018. That year, 23% said they'd often or sometimes felt isolated in recent weeks. Now, 50% say that. The survey, conducted in late May, draws on nearly a half-century of research from the General Social Survey, which has collected data on American attitudes and behaviors at least every other year since 1972. No less than 29% of Americans have ever called themselves very happy in that survey. Most of the new survey’s interviews were completed before the death of George Floyd touched off nationwide protests and a global conversation about race and police brutality, adding to the feelings of stress and loneliness Americans were already facing from the coronavirus outbreak — especially for black Americans. Lexi Walker, a 47-year-old professional fiduciary who lives near Greenville, South Carolina, has felt anxious and depressed for long stretches of this year. She moved back to South Carolina late in 2019, then her cat died. Her father passed away in February. Just when she thought she’d get out and socialize in an attempt to heal from her grief, the pandemic hit. COVID-19 Vaccine Frequently Asked Questions View more How does a vaccine work? A vaccine works by mimicking a natural infection. A vaccine not only induces immune response to protect people from any future COVID-19 infection, but also helps quickly build herd immunity to put an end to the pandemic. Herd immunity occurs when a sufficient percentage of a population becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely. The good news is that SARS-CoV-2 virus has been fairly stable, which increases the viability of a vaccine. How many types of vaccines are there? There are broadly four types of vaccine — one, a vaccine based on the whole virus (this could be either inactivated, or an attenuated [weakened] virus vaccine); two, a non-replicating viral vector vaccine that uses a benign virus as vector that carries the antigen of SARS-CoV; three, nucleic-acid vaccines that have genetic material like DNA and RNA of antigens like spike protein given to a person, helping human cells decode genetic material and produce the vaccine; and four, protein subunit vaccine wherein the recombinant proteins of SARS-COV-2 along with an adjuvant (booster) is given as a vaccine. What does it take to develop a vaccine of this kind? Vaccine development is a long, complex process. Unlike drugs that are given to people with a diseased, vaccines are given to healthy people and also vulnerable sections such as children, pregnant women and the elderly. So rigorous tests are compulsory. History says that the fastest time it took to develop a vaccine is five years, but it usually takes double or sometimes triple that time. View more Show “It’s been one thing after another,” Walker said. “This is very hard. The worst thing about this for me, after so much, I don’t know what’s going to happen.” Among other finding from the new poll about life in the pandemic: — The public is less optimistic today about the standard of living improving for the next generation than it has been in the past 25 years. Only 42% of Americans believe that when their children reach their age, their standard of living will be better. A solid 57% said that in 2018. Since the question was asked in 1994, the previous low was 45% in 1994. — Compared with surveys conducted after President John F. Kennedy’s assassination in 1963 and after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, Americans are less likely to report some types of emotional and psychological stress reactions following the COVID-19 outbreak. Fewer report smoking more than usual, crying or feeling dazed now than after those two previous tragedies, though more report having lost their temper or wanting to get drunk. — About twice as many Americans report being lonely today as in 2018, and not surprisingly given the lockdowns that tried to contain the spread of the coronavirus, there’s also been a drop in satisfaction with social activities and relationships. Compared with 2018, Americans also are about twice as likely to say they sometimes or often have felt a lack of companionship (45% vs. 27%) and felt left out (37% vs. 18%) in the past four weeks. What is surprising, said Louise Hawkley, a senior research scientist with NORC at the University of Chicago, was that loneliness was not even more prevalent. “It isn’t as high as it could be," she said. “People have figured out a way to connect with others. It’s not satisfactory, but people are managing to some extent.” The new poll found that there haven't been significant changes in Americans’ assessment of their families' finances since 2018 and that Americans' satisfaction with their families’ ability to get along financially was as high as it's been over nearly five decades. Jonathan Berney, of Austin, Texas, said that the pandemic — and his resulting layoff as a digital marketing manager for a law firm — caused him to reevaluate everything in his life. While he admits that he’s not exactly happy now, that’s led to another uncomfortable question: Was he truly happy before the pandemic? “2020 just fast forwarded a spiritual decay. When things are good, you don’t tend to look inwards,” he said, adding that he was living and working in the Miami area before the pandemic hit. As Florida dealt with the virus, his girlfriend left him and he decided to leave for Austin. “I probably just wasn’t a nice guy to be around from all the stress and anxiety. But this forced an existential crisis.” Berney, who is looking for work, said things have improved from those early, dark days of the pandemic. He’s still job hunting but has a little savings to live on. He said he's trying to kayak more and center himself so he’s better prepared to deal with any future downturn in events. Reimagining happiness is almost hard-wired into Americans’ DNA, said Sonja Lyubomirsky, a psychology professor at the University of California, Riverside. “Human beings are remarkably resilient. There’s lots and lots of evidence that we adapt to everything. We move forward,” she said, adding that she’s done happiness studies since the pandemic started and found that some people are slightly happier than last year. Melinda Hartline, of Tampa, who was laid off from her job in public relations in March, said she was in a depressed daze those first few weeks of unemployment. Then she started to bike and play tennis and enrolled in a college course on post-crisis leadership. Today, she’s worried about the state of the world and the economy, and she wonders when she can see her kids and grandkids who live on the West Coast — but she also realizes that things could be a lot worse. “Anything can happen. And you have to be prepared,” she said. “Whether it’s your health, your finances, whether it’s the world. You have to be prepared. And always maintain that positive mental attitude. It’s going to get you through it.”

just 14% of american adults say they're very happy, down from 31% who said the same in 2018. that year, 23% said they'd often or sometimes felt isolated in recent weeks. now, 50% say that. a vaccine works by mimicking a natural infection. a vaccine not only induces immune response to protect people from future COVID-19 infection, but also helps quickly build herd immunity to put an end to the pandemic.

Negative

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/curtailed-hajj-compounds-saudi-economic-woes/articleshow/76670617.cms

Vacant religious sites. Abandoned pilgrim tents. Lifeless hotels. A stunning emptiness - and fears of economic ruin - haunt the usually bustling city of Mecca after Saudi authorities curtailed the hajj pilgrimage over coronavirus Islam's holiest city usually hosts millions of pilgrims for the annual rite, but the kingdom has barred overseas visitors from this year's event, scheduled for late July. The hajj and the lesser umrah pilgrimage together rake in some $12 billion, keeping the economy humming in Mecca, home to two million people and marble-bedecked skyscrapers towering over Islam's most sacred sites.A construction boom in recent years has added shopping malls, apartments and luxury hotels, some offering spectacular views of the sacred Kaaba, a cube-shaped structure in the Grand Mosque towards which Muslims around the world pray.But most premises have lain empty since the pandemic reached the kingdom. The virus, which hit Mecca hard, has also battered pilgrimage-reliant businesses that support hundreds of thousands of jobs, from travel agents to street barbers and souvenir shops.Many have reported sweeping layoffs, pay cuts or delayed salaries. "Zero sales, zero income," said Ahmed Attia, a 39-year-old Egyptian who works for a travel agency in the city."We're not used to seeing Mecca empty. It feels like a dead city. It's devastating for Mecca." 'Photo-op' - A tsunami of cancellations has also battered overseas hajj operators who organise travel logistics for pilgrims, many of whom invest their life savings in the five-day ritual.Saudi authorities had already in March suspended the umrah pilgrimage, which can be performed at any time. Then, in a hugely sensitive but long-awaited decision, they said they would only allow around 1,000 pilgrims already present in the kingdom to perform the hajj.That is a tiny fraction of the 2.5 million pilgrims who attended last year. "It will be a symbolic event, a photo-op that allows the kingdom to say 'we didn't cancel the hajj as many expected'," said a South Asian official in contact with hajj authorities. Saudi Arabia has stressed that the watered-down hajj will be open to people of various nationalities. But the selection process for the few spots is expected to be hotly contested, as some Mecca residents expect to be given priority over outsiders."I have gone to hajj before and hopefully this year, with God's will, I will be among the first pilgrims," said Marwan Abdulrahman, a Saudi living in Mecca. Many feared the pilgrimage, which packs colossal crowds into small religious sites, could have been a massive source of contagion.The novel coronavirus has hit the kingdom with the highest number of cases in the Gulf -- more than 178,000 confirmed infections including 1,511 deaths. But scaling the pilgrimage back will deepen the kingdom's economic slump, analysts say.The move follows a sharp downturn in oil prices and coronavirus-led losses, which triggered austerity measures including the tripling of a value added tax and cuts to civil servants' allowances. The hajj decision "does compound Saudi Arabia's economic difficulties", Richard Robinson, a Middle East analyst at Oxford Analytica, told AFP.On Wednesday, the International Monetary Fund warned the kingdom's GDP will shrink by 6.8 percent this year -- its worst performance since the 1980s oil glut. Salary delays - The Saudi Binladen construction group, a bellwether known for vast mega-projects, has missed salary payments for thousands of workers in recent months, according to a source close to the company and employees complaining on social media.The Arabic hashtag "Delays in Binladen salaries" has gained traction as the slowdown impacts the firm behind a series of critical projects, including a $15 billion skyscraper hotel complex that towers over Mecca's Grand Mosque. The company is seeking to charter a number of private jets to send many of its laid-off South Asian labourers home, according to the source.The company did not respond to a request for comment. The downturn has also disrupted Riyadh's ambitious plans to build a tourism industry from scratch, a cornerstone of the Vision 2030 reform programme to reduce the kingdom's reliance on oil."The government has singled out tourism as a key area for growth under its diversification strategy, and the loss of hajj revenues could set the sector back through lost investment or bankruptcies," said Robinson. The kingdom began offering tourist visas for the first time last September in moves to open up one of the last frontiers of global tourism."While Saudis are looking to diversify tourism revenues beyond religious tourism, their efforts still build from the hajj," said Kristin Diwan of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. "Not having it at this time of disruption in oil markets is a blow."

the hajj and lesser umrah pilgrimage together rake in some $12 billion. the kingdom has barred overseas visitors from this year's event, scheduled for late July. the virus, which hit the holy city hard, has also battered pilgrimage-reliant businesses. many have reported sweeping layoffs, pay cuts or delayed salaries.

Negative

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world/coronavirus-pandemic-global-covid-19-cases-surpass-3-5-million-although-rate-slowing-5217381.html

Global coronavirus cases surpassed 3.5 million on May 4, with deaths nearing a quarter of a million, although the rate of fatalities and new cases has slowed from peaks reached last month, a Reuters tally shows. North America and European countries accounted for most of the new cases reported in recent days, but numbers were rising from smaller bases in Latin America, Africa and Russia. Globally, there were 84,004 new cases over the past 24 hours, according to the Reuters tally that is based on official government data, taking total cases to just over 3.5 million. That compares with around 3 million to 5 million cases of severe illness caused annually by seasonal influenza, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Follow LIVE updates on the COVID-19 pandemic here COVID-19 Vaccine Frequently Asked Questions View more How does a vaccine work? A vaccine works by mimicking a natural infection. A vaccine not only induces immune response to protect people from any future COVID-19 infection, but also helps quickly build herd immunity to put an end to the pandemic. Herd immunity occurs when a sufficient percentage of a population becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely. The good news is that SARS-CoV-2 virus has been fairly stable, which increases the viability of a vaccine. How many types of vaccines are there? There are broadly four types of vaccine — one, a vaccine based on the whole virus (this could be either inactivated, or an attenuated [weakened] virus vaccine); two, a non-replicating viral vector vaccine that uses a benign virus as vector that carries the antigen of SARS-CoV; three, nucleic-acid vaccines that have genetic material like DNA and RNA of antigens like spike protein given to a person, helping human cells decode genetic material and produce the vaccine; and four, protein subunit vaccine wherein the recombinant proteins of SARS-COV-2 along with an adjuvant (booster) is given as a vaccine. What does it take to develop a vaccine of this kind? Vaccine development is a long, complex process. Unlike drugs that are given to people with a diseased, vaccines are given to healthy people and also vulnerable sections such as children, pregnant women and the elderly. So rigorous tests are compulsory. History says that the fastest time it took to develop a vaccine is five years, but it usually takes double or sometimes triple that time. View more Show Still, while experts say actual coronavirus cases are likely higher than current reports, the trajectory falls far short of the Spanish flu, which began in 1918 and infected an estimated 500 million people. Deaths related to COVID-19, the disease caused by the new virus, stood at 245,992. The first death was reported on January 10 in Wuhan, China, after the virus emerged there in December. The daily rate of new cases worldwide has been sitting in a 2-3 percent range over the past week, versus a peak of around 13 percent in mid-March, prompting many countries to begin easing lockdown measures that have upended businesses and crippled the global economy. The loosening of restrictions has proved controversial, as experts debate the best strategy to ensure there is no large "second wave" outbreak. Health officials have also expressed concern about the rising case numbers in countries where there is a shortage of testing and a lack of medical facilities. While the number of new cases has come off a peak of 104,495 reported in a single day last week, it is still at around 80,000 to 90,000 cases per day globally. LIFTING LOCKDOWN? In the United States, around half the country's state governors partially reopened their economies over the weekend, while others, including New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, declared the move was premature. In Britain, Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who battled COVID-19 last month, said on Sunday the country was over the peak but it was still too early to relax lockdown measures. Even in countries where the suppression of the disease has been considered successful, such as Australia and New Zealand which have recorded daily rates of new infections in the low single digits for weeks, officials have been cautious. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has predicated a full lifting of curbs on widespread public adoption of a mobile phone tracing app and increased testing levels. Experts caution that both cases and deaths from COVID-19 are almost certainly underreported. Cases may cause only mild symptoms and not everyone with symptoms is tested, while most countries only record hospital deaths, meaning deaths in private homes and nursing homes have not yet been included. Follow our full coverage of the COVID-19 pandemic here.

coronavirus cases surpassed 3.5 million on may 4. deaths near a quarter of a million, a Reuters tally shows. there were 84,004 new cases over the past 24 hours, a Reuters tally shows. a vaccine works by mimicking a natural infection. a vaccine helps quickly build herd immunity to put an end to the pandemic.

Negative

https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/gdp-report-to-show-a-damaged-economy-sliding-into-recession/1942887/

The US economy began 2020 riding the crest of a record-long expansion with every expectation that its 11th year of growth would not be its last. Then the economy screeched to a sudden halt. And now it’s in free-fall. On Wednesday, the government will offer a glimpse of how dark the picture has grown and how much worse it could get as the coronavirus pandemic inflicts ruinous damage. The Commerce Department is expected to estimate that the gross domestic product, the broadest gauge of the economy, shrank at an annual rate of 5% or more in the January-March quarter. That would be the sharpest quarterly drop in GDP since the Great Recession, which ended in 2009. And it would be the first quarterly contraction in six years. And yet forecasters say that will be only a precursor of a far grimmer GDP report to come for the current April-June quarter, when business shutdowns and layoffs have struck with devastating force. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that GDP will plunge in the current quarter by a 40% annual rate. That would be, by a breathtaking margin, the bleakest quarter since such records were first compiled in 1947. In just a few weeks, businesses across the country have shut down and laid off tens of millions of workers. Factories and stores are shuttered. Home sales are falling. Households are slashing spending. Consumer confidence is sinking. As the economy slides into what looks like a severe recession, some economists are holding out hope that a recovery will arrive quickly and robustly once the health crisis has been solved what some call a V-shaped recovery. Increasingly, though, analysts say they think the economy will struggle to regain its momentum even after the viral outbreak has subsided. Many Americans, they suggest, could remain too fearful to travel, shop at stores or visit restaurants or movie theaters anywhere near as much as they used to. In addition, local and state officials may continue to limit, for health reasons, how many people may congregate in such places at any one time, thereby making it difficult for many businesses to survive. It’s why some economists say the damage from the downturn could persist far longer than some may assume. The recession will be worse than the one we went through from 2007 to 2009, said Sung Won Sohn, economics and business professor at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles, referring to the downturn that came to be called the Great Recession because it was the worst slump since the Great Depression of the 1930s. There is also fear that the coronavirus could flare up again after the economy is re-opened, forcing reopened businesses to shut down again. The virus has done a lot of damage to the economy, and there is just so much uncertainty now, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. Zandi said he thought the economy could resume its growth in the July-September quarter before faltering in the final quarter of 2020 and then regaining its footing on a sustained basis in mid-2021 assuming that a coronavirus vaccine is ready for use by then. I would characterize this period as going through quicksand until we get a vaccine, Zandi said.The Trump administration takes a rosier view. President Donald Trump told reporters this week that he expects a big rise in GDP in the third quarter, followed by an incredible fourth quarter, and you’re going to have an incredible next year. The president is predicating his re-election campaign on the argument that he built a powerful economy over the past three years and can do so again after the health crisis has been resolved.

the economy is in free-fall, but some economists are holding out hope that a recovery will arrive quickly and robustly. some economists say they think the economy will struggle to regain momentum even after the virus outbreak has subsided. the cbo has estimated that GDP will plunge in the current quarter by a 40% annual rate. the recession will be worse than the one we went through from 2007 to 2009, said a spokesman for the cbo.

Negative

https://www.businesstoday.in/current/corporate/coronavirus-impact-time-for-employers-to-up-skill-employees/story/404871.html

Coronavirus lockdown has left informal workers high and dry without daily wages. CMIE data shows that of the 12.2 crore people who lost jobs in April, 75 per cent were small traders and daily wage labourers. This reminds one of Charles Dickens' literary masterpiece Hard Times where he referred to factory workers not as individuals but 'Hands', reducing people to their value producing part. The government recently announced that it is working on an action plan to upskill and reskill workers once the lockdown is lifted. The rationale is to enable them to be gainfully employed and restart economic activity. But, one of the problems is 90% of India's workforce is employed in the informal sector where no efforts are made for skilling. "When firms get work from informal workers, they remain as hired hands, as mazdoor and no effort is made for their skilling and training," says Ravi Venkatesan, Founder of coalition Global Alliance for Mass Entrepreneurship (GAME). Carpenters, electricians will continue to do shoddy work which means they have no alternative to increase income or the option of improving their lives. For the quantum growth of the economy, investments in education and skilling of informal workers are key, especially because a huge share of population has very little skills. The government has spent a lot of money in skilling but it hasn't had much impact. "We need to think of ways to increase the skill set of those who are working in the informal sector right now as most of these workers do not have the luxury of time or any buffer savings to get skilled," says Partha Chatterjee, Professor and Head of the Economics Department at Shiv Nadar University. This is important to avoid the distress of labour in the COVID-like situation again in the future. For this, he suggests, the employers have to be involved. Right now, employers do not spend anything on skilling their employees. That needs to change. "We need to think how we can incentivise the employers to upskill employees. We also have to bring the skilling programs to the workers than the workers going to skilling centers." PriyaNaik, Founder and CEO, Samhita Social Ventures says that employers in sectors like apparel, textiles, hospitality, and tourism should imagine ways to up-skill and re-skill workers to enable them to be absorbed by other sectors in which there are better and more opportunities to earn. Take the case of Gujarat based textile manufacturer Arvind Ltd. that has been using the approach of "planned attrition". Punit Lalbhai, Executive Director of Arvind in a webinar "Protecting Human Capital to emerge from crisis" said the firm takes responsibility to "upgrade the skills of those who work with us into planned outplacement into industries that have better potential to augment income". He added, employers need to think about how to "re-calibrate, retrain, and redeploy parts of the workforce in a way that's not only ensuring that short term needs are met, but also in a way that prepares a skillset for Future India." Also read: Coronavirus Live Updates: India will see 600 flights today; COVID-19 tally rises to 1.38 lakh Also read: Companies need to start thinking what all can possibly go wrong: Deloitte India

90% of the workforce is employed in the informal sector where no efforts are made for skilling. government is working on an action plan to upskill and reskill workers once the lockdown is lifted. a huge share of population has very little skills. a government-backed initiative is being implemented to help informal workers. a spokesman for the government says it is not aware of any such initiatives.

Negative

https://www.businesstoday.in/sectors/banks/indian-economy-who-needs-corporates-to-run-banks-and-how-will-it-help-indian-economy/story/423707.html

A series of economic "reforms" have been unleashed since 2016 that defy economic logic - from the demonetisation of 2016 to the AatmaNirbhar Bharat of 2020. The latest one on the block is to let big corporate/industrial houses run banks. Interestingly, this is the only "reform" which hasn't dropped out of the blue at nightly live-telecasts; it is a mere proposal at present, but with far reaching consequences if pursued. This proposal comes from the RBI's internal working group (IWG) report released on November 20, 2020 stating: "large corporate/industrial houses may be allowed as promoters of banks" and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs or shadow banks) owned by corporate houses "may be considered for conversion into banks". It does not explain why it desires so, except making a general case for improving credit flows to make India a $5 trillion economy but without considering why India and developed economies like the US have studiously avoided such a course for decades. Also Read: Rebooting Economy 48: Do tax numbers show a healthier economy? Why economists opposing big industries running banks? All of India's top economists with wide national and international exposures strongly oppose this reform proposal. Former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan and former Deputy Governor Viral Acharya, who should know better about banking, wrote an article "Do we really need Indian corporations in banking?" describing it as a "bombshell" and "best left on the shelf". They offered two arguments against it: (i) industrial houses will get finances from banks they run with no questions asked (even though not their own money but public deposits), that the history of such banks (connected or related-party lending) "is invariably disastrous" and (ii) it will "exacerbate" concentration of economic and political power, making India susceptible to "authoritarian cronyism". They flagged a third point though didn't list it: (iii) banks are rarely allowed to fail in India, as in the recent cases of Yes Bank and Lakshmi Vilas Bank, in which case public depositors and taxpayers will bear the burden of bailouts, NPA write-offs and remonetisation as and when these banks fail. Seen from this perspective, the IWG's proposal is a win-win-win proposition for big businesses but lose-lose-lose for public depositors and taxpayers (loss of deposits, opportunity cost of not investing in better projects and cost of bail-out/remonetisation). Two former chief economic advisers of India (CEAs) and a former finance secretary of India, Arvind Subramanian, Shankar Acharya and Vijay Kelkar, also opposed it. They wrote ("A capital mistake") with a dire warning: "The conclusion is clear. Mixing industry and finance will set us on a road full of dangers - for growth, public finances and the future of the country itself. We sincerely urge policymakers not to take this path." They listed three reasons: (a) over-finance of risky activities (due to connected-lending or related- party transactions banned by multiple Indian laws) (b) encourage inefficiency by delaying exit and (c) entrench their dominance. Also Read: Rebooting Economy 47: Do India's fiscal numbers suggest a quick turn-around? Another former CEA and former World Bank chief economist Kaushik Basu warned that it is "almost invariably a step towards crony capitalism, where a few big corporations capture the business space in the country, slowly edging out the smaller players". He pointed out: "There is a lot of evidence that connected lending was the biggest cause of the build-up of bad loans in 1997 in Asia, which resulted in the East Asian Crisis that began in Thailand and turned out to be one of the biggest financial crashes in the world." Why now when banking system is in deep crisis? Rajan and Acharya raised this question and offered two reasons. Firstly, they wrote, "the government wants to expand the set of bidders when it finally turns to privatising some of our public sector banks", which they strongly oppose ("Indian Banks: A Time for Reform?") and secondly, "an industrial house holding a payment bank license wants to transform into bank" since one of the IWG recommendations is to shorten the time for such transformation from five to three years. The first answer gives a clue to an equally big banking reform waiting in the wings: handing over ownership of public sector banks to private corporates/industrial houses. Indeed, the government has disclosed that it intends to give up ownership of more than half of public sector banks (PSBs). That the banking system has been in severe crisis for several years is not unknown. A number of banks and NBFCs have collapsed and/or are facing serious charges of financial mismanagement involving many corporate bigwigs of India since 2018: PMC Bank, Punjab National Bank, ICICI Bank, Yes Bank, Lakshmi Vilas Bank, IL&FS, HDIL, DHFL (last three being NBFCs) etc. The crisis is mainly due to loan defaults (NPAs) by corporate entities and poor corporate governance that allow undue favours, diversion of loans to projects not meant for and money laundering. Some of the big corporate leaders like Vijay Mallya, Nirav Modi, Mehul Choksi, Jatin Mehta (Winsome Diamonds) and Sandesara brothers (Sterling Biotech) are accused of misdeeds and have fled the country without paying their debts. The Credit Suisse's "India Corporate Health Tracker" of August 2019 showed that barring a few exceptions, all big private business houses are heavily indebted and "chronically stressed". It warned that another wave of NPA crisis is coming. (For more read " Rebooting Economy XIII: Why Indian corporates are debt-ridden ") That was before the pandemic hit. The pandemic brought moratorium on loan repayment, which big businesses lapped up even when capable of repaying. The RBI's half-yearly Financial Stability Report (FSR) of July 2020 said 70% of the moratorium offer was availed by corporates rated 'A' and above with comfortable debt-equity ratio (meaning they could pay but chose not to). This RBI report warned that the Gross NPA ratio of scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) was likely to worsen from 8.5% in March 2020 to 12.5-14.7% in March 2021 due to the pandemic-induced economic distress. The IWG's main argument for allowing big corporates/industrial houses to run banks is that India's credit-to-GDP ratio is very low, just about 50% in 2019, while that of the US, Japan, China and South Korea was more than 150%. At 50% of credit-to-GDP, the Indian banking system has slipped into deep financial distress. What would happen when the lending goes up to 100% or 150% that the RBI's IWG seeks? Also Read: Rebooting Economy 46: Who is designing India's growth path? Also, who will take additional liquidity to be generated? Certainly not large industries as the RBI data reveal they have had very poor credit growth in the past few years. In FY20, the credit growth to large industries plunged to 0.6% and to industry as a whole (small, medium and large) a meagre 0.7%. In case the IWG and RBI are constrained for funds, here is an efficient and abundant source of it. India has a very vibrant and booming capital/stock market with more than enough liquidity the RBI can tap any time. Even as the Indian economy has slipped into a recession and performed worse than all major economies in the world, its stock markets have touched new highs. On November 24, 2020, the BSE Sensex touched an all-time high of 44,523 (daily closing) - overtaking by a mile its pre-pandemic high of 42,063 of January 17, 2020. The same day, the Nifty50 crossed its pre-pandemic high of 12,362 recorded on January 14, 2020 by breaking a new record of 13,055 (daily closing). Who is behind this reform proposal? Why did the IWG make such a proposal amidst a banking crisis caused by corporate loan defaults, money laundering etc. and recession? It gives an important clue. It says: "All the experts except one were of the opinion that large corporate/industrial houses should not be allowed to promote a bank." It spelt out their objections too: 1. Primarily because "prevailing corporate governance culture in corporate houses is not up to the international standard"; 2. "It will be difficult to ring fence the non-financial activities of the promoters with that of the bank" and "stress in non-financial activity may spill over to the bank; 3. Corporate houses "may either provide undue credit to their own businesses or may favour lending to their close business associates"; 4. "May influence lending by the bank, to finance the supply and distribution chains and customers of the group's non-financial businesses" and 5. "There are various ways of circumventing the regulations on connected lending and due to complex structures of entities, cross holding of capital, the disbursal/diversion of funds to group concerns is difficult to check". Several questions arise from these: If all the experts it consulted, except one, opposed the proposal, why did IWG go for it? What new evidence has it got to over-turn the RBI's earlier stand (most recently in 2020 and 2016) and negate two Parliamentary Standing Committees of 2013 and 2014 which strongly opposed it? Who is driving the RBI from backrooms? Also Read: Rebooting Economy 45: What is AatmaNirbhar Bharat and where will it take India? First, here is some insight that Rajan and Acharya provided in their article. They wrote that the IWG "may have had little power over" this recommendation and explained that this could be the reason for the IWG to suggest "significant amendments to the Banking Regulation Act of 1949" before allowing big corporate players to own and run banks. They went on to puncture this fatuous pre-condition by arguing that had legislation been the answer, corporates wouldn't have misused the banking system and the NPA crisis wouldn't have arisen in the first place. Secondly, a couple of months back in August 2020, national dailies reported that the RBI had shot down the Niti Aayog's proposal to allow big corporates/industrial houses to set up and run banks. This was not surprising since the central bank had junked such a suggestion in 2016 also while issuing "Guidelines for 'on tap' Licensing of Universal Banks in Private Sector". The document categorically stated that "large industrial houses are excluded as eligible entities", even while allowing them to invest up to 10% in banks. This was a change in position for the RBI from its 2013 stand spelt out in the guidelines for banking licenses, which had allowed industrial houses to apply for banking licenses. What made it change its stance? Two Parliamentary Standing Committees, one in 2013 and another in 2014, were scathing in their criticism of the RBI's 2013 move, pointing at facts and evidence to recommend that banking being "a highly leveraged business involving public money and public welfare" it will be more in the fitness of things to "keep industry and banking separate". The 2014 committee reminded the RBI and the government that the presence of bank branches in rural areas is very low (17%) and most banks - 6 of 26 private banks and 16 of 26 public sector banks - had failed to comply with 40% priority lending norm. It concluded: "The Committee, therefore, reiterate that the Government/RBI should ensure that no recurrence of the pre-nationalization situation happens, when the management of private banks deployed their funds to extend undue favour to their own industrial owners without regard to social priorities determined by Government." What did it mean by "no recurrence of pre-nationalisation situation" and why did it warn about it? Also Read: Rebooting Economy 44: India's journey from one of the fastest growing economies in 2015 to slowest in 2020 Forgotten lessons of Bank Nationalisation of 1969 Why banks were nationalised, starting with 1969, is instructive. Until 1969, Indian banking was entirely in private hands. The RBI recorded that historical transition from private to public ownership (some private banks were allowed to operate even then) in the first chapter "The Defining Event" of Volume III (1967-1981) of its own history - "RBI History". Here it goes. The report said there were several political, economic and banking compulsions at the time. India faced political uncertainties following the deaths of the first two Prime Ministers, Nehru and Shastri, within a short span of two years. The 1962 war with China and the 1965 war with Pakistan, drought and famines caused immense economic stress: the treasury was empty and a balance of payment crisis hit, delaying the Third Five-year Plan by three years. As for the banking reasons, it listed three: (a) lack of banking facilities for (i) agriculture (ii) small-scale industrial units and (iii) self-employed (b) bank expansion during 1951-1967 "un-served" rural and semi-urban areas as focus was firmly on urban areas and (c) private banks were "seen as being excessively concerned with profit alone" and "unwilling to diversify their loan portfolios". Under Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, the Congress sought to remove such distortions by declaring in its 1967 election manifesto that "it was necessary to bring most of the 'banking institutions under social control to serve the cause of economic growth more effectively and to make credit available to the producers in all fields where it is needed'". The following two graphs have been taken from the RBI's 2008 "Report on Currency and Finance" to reflect the ground realities of the time. The first graph shows the share of credit flows to agriculture was a meagre 2.1% in FY51 and marginally improved to 2.2% in FY67; that to individuals ("personal") went down from 6.8% in FY51 to 4.2% in FY67. On the other hand, the share of credit to industry was a high 34% in FY51 and grew even higher to 64.3% in FY67. As on March 27, 2020, the situation was different. The share of credit flow to agriculture had increased to 12.6%, that for "personal" loans to 27.7% and industry's share stood at a healthy 31.5% (large industries accounted for 26.2% of the total) - according to the RBI database. Also Read: Rebooting Economy 43: States exhaust MGNREGS fund, leave Rs 1,386 crore in unpaid wages This is a massive redistribution of credit, particularly to the unbanked population. The next graph shows distribution of bank branches. Rural branches were fewer - 13.3% in 1952 (end December), growing to 17.9% in 1967 (end December). Urban/metropolitan branches were 35.7% in 1952, growing to 38.9% in 1967. Semi-urban areas saw its dominance coming down from a high of 47.8% in 1952 to 43.3% in 1967. At the end of June 2020, the RBI database showed the number of commercial bank branches stood at 33.3% in rural areas, 27.4% in semi-urban and 39.3% in urban/metropolitan areas. That is a massive improvement too. How did nationalised banks save India during 2007-08 crash? The Great Recession of 2007-08 taught a big lesson to all economies: private and largely unregulated banking and other financial institutions (particularly NBFCs) pose a serious systemic risk. Complex, opaque and high-risk financial instruments that private banks, NBFCs and other financial entities brought in to maximise profits derailed the US economy, and the distress travelled across the world. India emerged relatively unscathed because its banking system is dominated by government-owned banks with less opaque and risky instruments of maximising profits. The US paid a heavy price of bailing out its financial system. It nationalised two big shadow banks (NBFCs) in the housing mortgage markets, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. By then they had run up a combined debt of $5.4 trillion. Ironically, Fannie Mae was a government-owned entity, set up in 1938 to fight the financial crunch in the wake of the 1929 Great Depression (sparked by private financial entities) and had a highly successful run for 30 years when it was handed over to the private sector in 1968. Freddie Mac was created by the US Congress too, but as a private entity to compete with Fannie Mae. Both put a burden of $5.4 trillion on the US taxpayers when these were nationalised in September 2008. (For more read Rebooting Economy XVI: How governments run shadow banking and risk financial stability) The US government also bailed out several other private banks and financial institutions, namely Bank of America, Citigroup, AIG, Bear Stearns, at a huge cost to its taxpayers. India did not have to do it then but it should be prepared before following the same path that led to multiple economic crises all over the world from 1929. Apart from the Great Recession of 2007-08, financial mismanagement by private banks, NBFCs and other financial entities led to the dot.com burst (2000-01), Asian financial crisis (late 1990s), Latin American crisis (1990s-2000s), Japan crisis (1990s-2000s) and many others. (For more read " Rebooting Economy XII: Is private sector inherently more efficient than public sector? ") The Great Recession of 2007-08 brought some dramatic changes in banking systems in developed countries. They are now increasing government-ownership (asset share) in banking. Here is a graph from the World Bank's 2013 report "Rethinking the Role of the State in Finance" showing the changes in government-ownership in banking pre- and post-2007-08 financial crisis. Developed economies have increased government ownership in banks (asset share) but developing ones like India are diluting theirs, which indicates the latter countries are not learning any lesson. This World Bank report clearly explained why and how government-ownership of banks are critical in "stabilising aggregate credit" and played key roles in limiting damages during the financial meltdown of 2007-08 in several countries, including India and China. (For more read " Rebooting Economy XVII: Why governments promote shadow banking ") No wonder, many developed countries, including the US, keep banking and other industries separate. The US specifically prohibits big industrial houses with ownership and controlling stakes in non-banking business (manufacturing and others) from owning or controlling banks. India will do itself great harm by diluting government-ownership that saved it from the 2007-08 global financial meltdown. Also Read: Rebooting Economy 42: How will changes to land laws in Jammu and Kashmir help, and whom? Will "bail-in" reform be the next? Allowing big corporates/industrial houses to own and run banks and handing over ownership from government to private are not the only two big-ticket banking reforms in the pipeline. A third one has been in cold storage since 2018, following a huge uproar, but the possibility of its comeback can't be written off (labour reforms were put off in 2017 to be brought back in 2019 and 2020 and passed in a hurry). That pending bank reform is "bail-in" provision in the Financial Resolution and Deposit Insurance (FRDI) Bill of 2017, which proposed (Clause 52) that in case a bank fails the depositors' money will be used to bail it out (as one of the resolution tools). Also Read: Rebooting Economy 41: India's growing poverty and hunger nobody talks about What it means is that the depositors of such a bank will pay with their deposits to revive failed banks. Until now, public depositors and taxpayers have been bailing out banks by way of NPA write-offs and remonetisation of banks. This is an additional incentive to big corporates/industrial houses to own and run banks with public deposits. Rather, the fourth "win" for them and the "fourth "loss" for depositors and taxpayers. Insurance cover for bank deposits has been raised from Rs 1 lakh to Rs 5 lakh in the 2020 budget, which means in case a bank fails, the depositors are protected up to a maximum of Rs 5 lakh. The rest will be lost to "bail-in" for bailing out failed banks in case this reform is revived. Why "authoritarian cronyism" is a threat? While warning about "authoritarian cronyism", Rajan and Acharya omitted a few things. The stage for such an eventuality was set with the introduction of opaque Electoral Bonds in 2017. It has opened a floodgate of unlimited and unaccounted money from anonymous corporates to donate to political parties. Also Read: Rebooting Economy 40: Why Punjab farmers burn stubble? Additionally, Electoral Bonds are out of legal scrutiny and disclosure norms. The Representation of People Act of 1951 has been amended to keep corporate donations through Electoral Bonds out of the scrutiny of Election Commission of India (ECI) and The Companies Act of 2013 too has been amended to remove limits on such corporate donations and disclosing the name of the political party to which such donations are being made. No wonder the ruling party is getting most of Electoral Bond donations. In September 2019, amidst the pre-pandemic economic slowdown, the government cut corporate tax by Rs 1.45 lakh crore, even while facing difficulty to honour GST compensation payment commitment. (For more read " Rebooting Economy XXIV: 7 critical GST flaws govt needs to address at the earliest "). Instead of using tax cuts to invest and generate jobs as the people were told, corporates went for "debt servicing, build-up of cash balances and other current assets rather than restarting the capex cycle", as the RBI's Annual Report, 2019-20, later revealed. Enough has already been written about the fresh leash of life to crony capitalism in India in recent years (most lucrative projects landing with two industrial houses close to the government) to warrant elaboration. Enough is also known (from history) about how a cocktail of crony capitalism and a regime with poor democratic instincts can overrun any society or country.

a series of economic "reforms" have been unleashed since 2016 that defy economic logic. the latest is to let big corporate/industrial houses run banks. this is the only "reform" which hasn't dropped out of the blue at nightly live-telecasts. it is a mere proposal at present, but with far reaching consequences if pursued.

Negative

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/coronavirus-federation-of-indian-exporters-expects-order-loss-of-nearly-50-5120211.html

Representative image The coronavirus crisis is hurting exports of apparels, textiles, gems, and jewelry and could lead to at least 50 percent loss of orders, Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) told CNBC-TV18. Orders for many consumer goods have been fully canceled or deferred and there is an expectation of 50 percent loss in Q1 of FY21. There is no reason to not allow exporters to work at 50 percent capacity and the government needs to come out with a stimulus package for exporters soon, the organisation said. Pointing out that Bangladesh had already given an $8.6 billion package to its industry, FIEO said it has also requested the government for a Rs 25,000 crore stimulus package and relief on GST and employee salaries.

coronavirus crisis hurting exports of apparels, textiles, gems, and jewelry. there is an expectation of 50 percent loss in Q1 of FY21. FIEO: there is no reason to not allow exporters to work at 50 percent capacity. FIEO has requested the government for a Rs 25,000 crore stimulus package. a spokesman for the sri lanka-based organisation said the government needs to come out with a stimulus package soon.

Negative

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/comment-icici-a-board-that-failed-2631531.html

Nirmalya Kumar It is not often that the failure of a board of directors spills so openly into the public domain. But the ICICI Bank board, under the inept leadership of its Chairman, MK Sharma, has manged to make itself the poster child for poor corporate governance in India. It has sullied the reputation of everyone associated with it, the Chairman, the CEO, the independent directors, and the government-nominee directors. In the other recent board battles in India, most famously in the ones at Infosys and Tata, there were at least some heroes from a corporate governance perspective that emerged in the process, like R Seshasayee or Nusli Wadia. If the chairman, CEO, or the members of the board of ICICI continue after this fiasco, it indicates that even "shame" as a control mechanism has limited efficacy in the country. Let us distinguish between promoter-led companies and those with diversified stockholding and no controlling shareholder, for the purposes of corporate governance. The problem of corporate governance in promoter-led companies is that the board kowtows to the promoter, as the "independent" directors owe their positions to these promoters. As promoters can vote on independent directors, and minority shareholders don't frequently exercise their voting rights, even with a relatively small shareholding, the promoter is effectively appointing the independent directors. If an independent director such as a Nusli Wadia dares to disagree with the promoter, he or she is immediately sacked. This has a chilling effect on dissent by independent directors. The promoter is all powerful and minority interests are trampled upon at will. The informal check in such cases is only the benevolence of the promoters, as I have previously noted, if they need to return to the equity markets. The savvier promoters take a long view, and thus protect their reputation among minority shareholders. But, as in any feudal system, the minions are at the mercy of the ruler. In non-promoter led companies, one worries about the agency problem, where the managers may not align their interests with the shareholders. Without a promoter to oversee their behaviour, the professionals running the firm can enrich themselves at the expense of the shareholders. This is why in the US, where such firms are ubiquitous, a separation is sought between the Chairman and CEO positions. Since a powerful Chairman acts as a check on the CEO, at least on the boards outside India that I have served on, there is often a healthy tension between them. The worry in non-promoter companies is that an all-powerful CEO captures the board and subverts any effective oversight. Over the years I have observed powerful CEOs deploy various mechanisms to make their boards and Chairman subservient. I will leave the readers to make their own judgment as to which of these were in play at ICICI as the board lost all control and abdicated its responsibilities. First, there is the problem of the "superstar" CEOs, who through a combination of past performance, charisma, and crafty PR management, have created an aura of dominance around themselves. The board in the face of this CEO is rendered ineffective in its monitoring role. The unconscious story line that plays out on the board is: "Who are we to question a visionary like Ratan Tata, Narayana Murthy, or Chanda Kochhar?" Second, as the same individuals serve on multiple boards, they have limited time to really understand and investigate the true situation at the firm, and their industry-specific knowledge is inadequate. As a result, independent directors suffer from "information capture". Directors are overwhelmingly dependent on the information that the CEO chooses to provide or conceal. Consequently, directors end up monitoring the actions of the management through the "filtered glasses" provided by the same executives. Third, and this is by no means an exhaustive list, CEOs effectively make directors complicit though various monetary and non-monetary benefits. The financial incentives for directors, such as compensation and bonus recommendations by the CEO, are well known. Academic research has documented that excess director compensation lowers monitoring of CEOs, reduces CEO turnover-performance sensitivity, and is an indicator of board entrenchment. Overcompensated directors provide CEOs with additional immunity and job security. Furthermore, excess compensation of directors is positively related to the CEO's total compensation, providing evidence of cronyism between CEOs and directors. The numerous non-monetary benefits are behind the veil. These include jobs at the company or related firms for relatives of the directors, overseas trips to presumably understand far-flung operations and investigate opportunities. But, most importantly, among highly interconnected elites, there is the need to maintain social capital, in order to continue membership in the “club”. In light of the above, it should not be surprising that the instinctive reaction of the board is to protect the CEO. In a sense, they are protecting themselves. The ICICI board reiterated their support of the CEO immediately as this story of potential misdeeds by Chanda Kochhar broke on the news. Similarly, despite the Central Bureau of Investigations (CBI) raiding the offices of R Venkataramanan, the managing trustee of Tata Trusts, him being named in the FIR filed by the CBI, and the internal emails by Venkat providing evidence of him engaging in lobbying to get the 5/20 rule for airlines removed, Tata Trusts reaffirmed its complete trust in and continued support for the managing trustee (equivalent of a CEO). Just as at ICICI, the independent inquiry that should have been the appropriate response by the Tata Trust board, will happen only when there is no option because of a public hue and cry. The ICICI and the Tata Trust boards, from the corporate governance lens, have thus become laughing stocks when these cases are presented in any management classroom, and perhaps even in the press. From a shareholder's (minority shareholders in case of promoter led companies) perspective, Indian boards of directors are failing. They are not exercising the necessary due diligence and loyalty to shareholders by maintaining an intense oversight of powerful CEOs and promoters. The ICICI and Tata boards epitomize this with respect to non-promoter and promoter companies. At Infosys, the board showed more backbone and attempted to resist the pressure before eventually caving in. This is not a good omen for corporate governance in India. My contention is, as I have made elsewhere, that the more laws and regulations we impose on the boards, the more ability we provide them with to engage in symbolic governance towards external stakeholders. These box-ticking exercises provide a fig leaf to engage in less, not more, robust corporate governance. Disclaimer: Nirmalya Kumar is the Lee Kong Chian Professor of Marketing at Singapore Management University and Distinguished Fellow at INSEAD Emerging Markets Institute. The views expressed here are his own.

ICICI bank board has made itself poster child for poor corporate governance in india. savvier promoters take a long view, and protect their reputation among minority shareholders. without a promoter to oversee their behaviour, managers may not align their interests with the shareholders. savanna sabha: if the board kowtows to the promoter, it will be a failure to control the board.

Negative