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https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=a3a4e3e8d7e3b35ce238be405596300970c42f1d5f960da8632cb31890fbf286 | Top 5 3rd Quarter Trades of Go - GuruFocus.com | GuruFocus Article or News written by insider and the topic is about: | 2022-10-19T02:05:00 | GuruFocus | Goldstream Capital Management Ltd recently filed their 13F report for the third quarter of 2022, which ended on 2022-09-30.
The 13F report details which stocks were in a guru’s equity portfolio at the end of the quarter, though investors should note that these filings are limited in scope, containing only a snapshot of long positions in U.S.-listed stocks and American depository receipts as of the quarter’s end. They are not required to include international holdings, short positions or other types of investments. Still, even this limited filing can provide valuable information.
SUITE 08, 70/F CENTRAL, K3 000000
As of the latest 13F report, the guru’s equity portfolio contained 18 stocks valued at a total of $130.00Mil. The top holdings were TSLA(81.41%), NVDA(5.62%), and MSFT(1.70%).
According to GuruFocus data, these were Goldstream Capital Management Ltd’s top five trades of the quarter.
Tesla Inc
Goldstream Capital Management Ltd reduced their investment in NAS:TSLA by 21,900 shares. The trade had a 4.28% impact on the equity portfolio. During the quarter, the stock traded for an average price of $279.27.
On 10/19/2022, Tesla Inc traded for a price of $219.8129 per share and a market cap of $689.96Bil. The stock has returned -24.08% over the past year.
GuruFocus gives the company a financial strength rating of 8 out of 10 and a profitability rating of 4 out of 10.
In terms of valuation, Tesla Inc has a price-earnings ratio of 79.61, a price-book ratio of 18.90, a EV-to-Ebitda ratio of 47.29 and a price-sales ratio of 11.22.
The price-to-GF Value ratio is 0.60, earning the stock a GF Value rank of 8.
MicroStrategy Inc
Goldstream Capital Management Ltd reduced their investment in NAS:MSTR by 18,000 shares. The trade had a 2.57% impact on the equity portfolio. During the quarter, the stock traded for an average price of $250.77.
On 10/19/2022, MicroStrategy Inc traded for a price of $231.1 per share and a market cap of $2.62Bil. The stock has returned -68.10% over the past year.
GuruFocus gives the company a financial strength rating of 2 out of 10 and a profitability rating of 6 out of 10.
In terms of valuation, MicroStrategy Inc has a EV-to-Ebitda ratio of -5.69 and a price-sales ratio of 4.97.
The price-to-GF Value ratio is 0.90, earning the stock a GF Value rank of 7.
SPDR Biotech ETF
Goldstream Capital Management Ltd reduced their investment in ARCA:XBI by 21,800 shares. The trade had a 1.41% impact on the equity portfolio. During the quarter, the stock traded for an average price of $84.31.
On 10/19/2022, SPDR Biotech ETF traded for a price of $79.3 per share and a market cap of $6.82Bil. The stock has returned -35.21% over the past year.
There is insufficient data to calculate the stock’s financial strength and profitability ratings.
In terms of valuation, SPDR Biotech ETF has a price-book ratio of 3.30.
NVIDIA Corp
Goldstream Capital Management Ltd reduced their investment in NAS:NVDA by 10,000 shares. The trade had a 1.32% impact on the equity portfolio. During the quarter, the stock traded for an average price of $158.09.
On 10/19/2022, NVIDIA Corp traded for a price of $119.5 per share and a market cap of $297.98Bil. The stock has returned -46.08% over the past year.
GuruFocus gives the company a financial strength rating of 8 out of 10 and a profitability rating of 10 out of 10.
In terms of valuation, NVIDIA Corp has a price-earnings ratio of 39.24, a price-book ratio of 12.49, a price-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 1.22, a EV-to-Ebitda ratio of 31.27 and a price-sales ratio of 10.20.
The price-to-GF Value ratio is 0.48, earning the stock a GF Value rank of 4.
Apple Inc
During the quarter, Goldstream Capital Management Ltd bought 5,400 shares of NAS:AAPL for a total holding of 7,400. The trade had a 0.58% impact on the equity portfolio. During the quarter, the stock traded for an average price of $156.95.
On 10/19/2022, Apple Inc traded for a price of $143.06 per share and a market cap of $2,310.17Bil. The stock has returned -1.30% over the past year.
GuruFocus gives the company a financial strength rating of 6 out of 10 and a profitability rating of 10 out of 10.
In terms of valuation, Apple Inc has a price-earnings ratio of 23.72, a price-book ratio of 39.82, a price-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 1.67, a EV-to-Ebitda ratio of 18.08 and a price-sales ratio of 6.11.
The price-to-GF Value ratio is 0.84, earning the stock a GF Value rank of 7.
Please note, the numbers and facts quoted are as of the writing of this article and may not factor in the latest trading data or company announcements.
Want to provide feedback on this article? Have questions or concerns? Get in touch with us here, or email us at [email protected]!
This article is general in nature and does not represent the opinions of GuruFocus or any of its affiliates. This article is not intended to be financial advice, nor does it constitute investment advice or recommendations. It was written without regard to your individual situation or financial goals. We aim to bring you fundamental, data-driven analysis, The information on this site is in no way guaranteed for completeness, accuracy or in any other way. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=a33356a3b773cf89fd9979c5f7ecd3a7aeebd8f0ad314b579215458abb370a7b | 8 Stocks I Own That Are Trading Below Their Graham Numbers | Graham's number is a useful tool to check how undervalued your stocks are in the present. Read more to see my personal takeaway on 8 stocks I own. | 2022-10-19T00:34:42 | SeekingAlpha | 8 Stocks I Own That Are Trading Below Their Graham Numbers
Summary
- Value investing comes back alive in declining markets, where the efficient-market hypothesis shows signs of inefficiencies.
- Graham's number is a useful tool to check how undervalued your stocks are in the present.
- I display 8 stocks out of my own portfolio and give my personal takeaway.
Value investing has been a term used by many. However, the practice of value investing changes from investor to investor. Slight changes in investing processes is only normal due to varying risk tolerances and goals. One of the founders of value investing is Benjamin Graham, better known for his book "The Intelligent Investor". Graham was also a teacher of the most famous investor of all time: Warren Buffet.
Graham's number
Throughout the years, Benjamin Graham created a formula to calculate the maximum price an investor should be willing to pay for a security. Anything below the calculated price means the security is undervalued and signals a possible entry point.
The formula to calculate Graham's number takes a maximum price-to-earnings ratio of 15x and a maximum price to book value of 1.5x into account. As a result, Graham's number can be calculated with the following formula:
It is important to understand that this formula covers just two metrics, subsequently it is not an absolute way to analyze your stocks. Nonetheless, it can still be a useful tool to see how strongly undervalued your investment is in the present. Therefore, I have ran Graham's formula through my portfolio and found quite some candidates.
|Ticker||Stock price (16/10)||Graham's number||Upside potential|
|KLIC||$37.50||60.84||62.24%|
|DQ||$50.72||159.07||213.62%|
|HIMX||$5.27||16.67||216.31%|
|FNF||$37.91||62.66||65.28%|
|INTC||$25.91||51.00||96.83%|
|VTRS||$9.55||15.22||59.37%|
|MGM||$30.64||48.08||56.91%|
|OTCPK:PROSF||€51.15||74.00||44.67%|
The stocks in my list are either unrecognized and underappreciated or have extremely bad sentiment. For the that reason, the stocks have little room to go lower based solely on a valuation viewpoint. Although this is the first time I am plotting my stocks centered on Graham's number, the upside potential does align pretty well with my own valuation strategy. Currently my highest weighted stock is Daqo New Energy, on the other hand Prosus is my lowest weighted stock in this list.
Do keep in mind that external risks can underappreciated a stock more or less predicated on the risk factor. For that reason, it is not wise to weight your portfolio only around the possible upside potential. The risk-reward balance must be favorable at all times.
Kulicke and Soffa Industries Inc. (KLIC)
Kulicke and Soffa designs and manufactures capital equipment and tools used to assemble semiconductor devices. Since my last article on KLIC the stock has outperformed the S&P 500.
I concluded back then:
Kulicke And Soffa Industries is well-positioned for the future with a proven track record that supports their business performance. The stock is a great pick for value investors that love to pile into (misleading) bad sentiment. Furthermore, the company is grossly undervalued compared to its peers and has the balance sheet to survive a cyclical downtrend. For these reasons, I assign a Buy rating on Kulicke And Soffa Industries.
The thesis I prescribed back then still applies: patience will be rewarded. At the moment, a cyclical downturn might be imminent. Nonetheless, the strong balance sheet will protect the downside with, inter alia share buybacks.
Historically, the company is trading at fairly low valuations. If earnings would be cut in half the company would still trade at a discount compared to past valuation.
The fortress balance sheet and the low valuation confirm that this stock has little room to go lower. The company has 34% of their market cap in cash and short term investments combined with $274million in current liabilities and $0 in long term debt.
Daqo New Energy Corp. (DQ)
Daqo New Energy is a high-purity polysilicon manufacturer based in China. The company has designed an extremely efficient rate between the amount of polysilicon obtained and the production costs. Since my last article on DQ, the stock has fallen together with the whole solar industry. Nevertheless, I am still convinced it will outperform the market by a wide margin.
My takeaway in the article:
The market trend is going in the right direction, making Daqo New Energy one of the most profitable companies. In addition, the strong operational performance and management decisions lead the company to a bright future. N-type polysilicon prevents new players from entering the market and give Daqo a greater chance in achieving long-term success. For these reasons, I assign a Strong Buy rating on Daqo New Energy.
On the 14th of October, the company announced a 5-year polysilicon deal with Shuangliang Silicon Materials ( 双良硅材料 ) to supply their fast growing solar wafer business. Xinjiang Daqo and Inner Mongolia Daqo will provide Shuangliang with a total amount of 150,300 MT high-purity mono-grade polysilicon from 2022 to 2027. Currently, this is more than the production volume in the full year of 2022.
On the 18th of October, the company announced another 5-year polysilicon deal with a solar manufacturing company with a total supply of 46,200 MT from 2023 to 2027.
The stabilization of high polysilicon prices give Daqo abnormal earnings, which result into a fortress balance sheet and no debt. The wafer expansion is still higher than the polysilicon expansion, causing gaps in supply and demand. With no signs yet of lower polysilicon prices, investors could expect high dividends or share buybacks. Once the China-U.S. auditing problems are resolved, this stock could reach new-highs rather soon.
Himax Technologies, Inc. (HIMX)
Himax is a fabless semiconductor company that designs chips for mostly display solutions. The company is growing revenues fast in the automotive industry, which improves their product mix. As a result, Himax has now a higher margin business. Like I said above, a cyclical downturn in the semiconductor industry might be imminent. However, the stock seems to be already priced for the worst.
Himax has a lower margin business and long term performance than Kulicke & Soffa industries, for that reason I think KLIC offers a better risk-reward balance. That aside, Himax offers a great dividend at current prices. The question is how stable earnings will be going forward.
Fidelity National Financial, Inc. (FNF)
Fidelity National Financial is a title insurance and settlement services provider for the real estate and mortgage industry. Historically, the stock is trading at all-time low valuations, caused by weakness in the title business.
Every time, the dividend yield of Fidelity hit a high it meant you should buy the stock. In my view, it is no different this time. The 4.64% is very attractive at current valuation. FNF is a very safe dividend stock with a 22% payout ratio and a 6 year growth of dividend.
Thomas Lott wrote a great full analysis on Fidelity National Financial, in case you are interested to know more. In his latest article he concluded this:
Even better, FNF is extremely cheap. The spinoff should unlock some value in Q4 too. On the negative side, the headwinds to the title business are real but well known at this point. This is a more than average cyclical/volatile industry. Hard to see it not priced into the stock barring a Great Depression.
EPS and home financings peaked in Q2 2021 so we may have another couple of quarters of tough comps. But seem to be fast approaching a bottom.
In contrast to the title business, F&G benefits from higher interest rates and has kept earnings from falling too much.
Finally, we have to mention that we view the business model as best in class. No question it is extremely cash generative. EBITDA is $3.0 billion and capex only $130 million give or take. Management is top notch too. The F&G acquisition was a home run. A great compounder here.
In housing, our long term view is that inflation likely drives home prices higher, but in a worst case is down in the single digits next year. There is a huge shortage of homes in this country, and as wages move higher with inflation, affordability improves.
Intel Corporation (INTC)
Intel is the largest semiconductor company by revenue, which makes it a real blue chip company. Intel is well discussed on Seeking Alpha and has a strong bull and bear side. In my opinion, it is currently hard to be a bear on Intel. Although I am informed about the competition from Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD, it still doesn't really bother me. Solely based on revenue both Nvidia and AMD are still smaller companies compared to intel. But they are worth equal the amount or even more than Intel. Therefore, I think Nvidia and AMD have too many bulls and Intel has too many bears.
Bad sentiment always opens up opportunities for value investors. At current valuation, it is hard to see much downside risk on the stock. Next to that, the dividend yield is a great bonus to wait for the turnaround in growth. Intel has been a great investment before at peaking dividend yields.
Free cash flow has turned negative to fund new investments. A cut in dividends could be imminent, these funds have a good place in share buybacks or to help speed up the turnaround process. To get returns from intel you will have to be patient and look for an investment horizon of at least 5 years.
Viatris Inc. (VTRS)
Viatris is a pharmaceutical company, that was formed through a spinoff-merger of Mylan and Upjohn (a division of Pfizer (PFE)). A spinoff is the epitome of the Efficient-Market Hypothesis being incorrect. The imbalance of short term supply and demand can create underappreciated stocks, for example caused by the institutional selling of a small-capitalization spinoff.
Since my latest article on Viatris, the stock outperformed the S&P 500, which might signal that we are near a bottom for this stock.
On the 1st of August, I concluded:
I rate Viatris a Strong Buy below $10 per share. The risk reward balance is favorable for long-term investors. The dividend yield and the undervaluation are too attractive to ignore. Looking at the high free cash flow yield and EV to EBTIDA ratio, few peers are even close to Viatris. Additionally, The management team is aware of the risks and is proactively keeping them at bay. Finally, a buyback program can boost the stock price into a positive momentum environment.
So far, my thesis has not changed.
MGM Resorts International (MGM)
MGM Resorts is an American global hospitality and entertainment company. The company has been recovering fairly well after the COVID-19 crisis. Surprisingly enough the stock has outperformed the S&P 500 since my latest article, while Jamie Dimon warns that the U.S. is likely to tip into a recession.
On the 27 of August, I concluded:
I rate MGM Resorts a Strong Buy at $35 per share. The company's business performance and management execution led to a great recovery after the pandemic. At the current price, long-term investors are likely to get rewarded. The stock is undervalued, while investors ignore the possible recovery of the business in Macau together with the growth and expected profitability of BetMGM. Finally, the buyback program shows investors that the business is healthy and will reward investors.
A recession is definitely a risk for the casino business. Nonetheless, at the current valuation there seems to be a support level. The high amount of share buybacks can also prevent the stock from going lower.
Prosus N.V. (OTCPK:PROSF)
Prosus is a global investment group and one of the largest technology investors with investments in Tencent, Bux, Delivery Hero, Trip.com and many more. Tencent is by far their largest holding with a value around $84.8 billion compared to their total asset value of $116.5 billion.
The company has recently decided to do a share buyback program to close the discount to its net asset value (NAV).
To get a view of the whole picture you should check out the article of Heavy Moat Investments. I agree with his following takeaway:
Considering that Prosus is committed to getting this discount to acceptable levels(which I assume are around 10-25%) there is still enough upside in the stock and I rate it a buy. The company still has risks and valid reasons to trade on a discount, just the amount of discount is still quite exaggerated. I will continue to hold onto my shares as long as the discount gap is wide, but contrary to my usual buy and hold strategy, I am planning to sell out of Prosus eventually.
Takeaway
Stocks of all types and sizes are declining in price, as the S&P 500 is fighting in bear territory. The time has come to reassess the risk-reward balance on your favorite stocks to experience excellent long-term returns. Investing can't be done without bulls and bears, that is why I want to hear from you. Write down your opinions in the comment section below. Thank you for taking your time to read my article.
This article was written by
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of VTRS, DQ, HIMX, FNF, MGM, PROSF, INTC, KLIC either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
I am not a financial advisor. Investing is your own responsibility. I am not accountable for any of your losses.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Comments (11)
So could you run through the numbers on one example and show us your work to get the Graham number.
Maybe do Intel as it should be familiar to most and then tell us-
-what is better--a higher number or lower.
Thkyou (Im just not feeling to mathematical today)
51 is more than current stock price of $25, which means there is a 50% discount or a 100% upside possible following Graham’s formula.
To me22.5 x 4.68 x 24.65 equals 2,595.65I must be missing something pretty basic. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=aa2f156b23bd05ff2e04be774885a3cb6da73319869dd59516bf4fde340027c3 | 7 Semiconductor Stock Predictions for 2023 | With more focus on bringing semiconductor manufacturing back to the United States, here are seven semiconductor stock predictions for 2023. | 2022-10-18T20:42:00 | InvestorPlace | Semiconductors are used in virtually all of the most important emerging technologies. Data centers, gaming, and electric cars all require a substantial number of chips. In fact, electronic components make up nearly 40% of internal combustion vehicles. Additionally, semiconductor chips play a vital role in the electronic equipment such as laptops, tablets, and smartphones that we use every day.
Thus, it’s not surprising to note that demand for chips surged in 2020 and 2021. That said, supply chain difficulties made it difficult to get the chips where they needed to be. This caused many chip stocks to move down from record highs in 2022.
Now, with many manufacturers overestimating their need for chips, these semiconductor stocks have been hit hard. While some argue this has allowed chipmakers to focus on the next generation of chips that will be in high demand, this is still a sector with some risk. That said, as more attention is paid to bringing semiconductor manufacturing in the United States, 2023 may be the start of another semiconductor super cycle.
With that in mind, here are seven semiconductor predictions and supporting stocks for 2023.
|TSM||Taiwan Semiconductor||$63.68|
|TXN||Texas Instruments||$151.98|
|INTC||Intel||$25.98|
|MU||Micron Technology||$52.87|
|LRCX||Lam Research||$328.64|
|AMAT||Applied Materials||$76.78|
|TER||Teradyne||$72.63|
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)
If you’re going to pick one semiconductor stock, you can’t do much better than Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM). This company is the largest pure play in the semiconductor foundry/manufacturing space. Taiwan Semiconductor manufactures semiconductors for other companies, notably Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), as well as other chip makers such as Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA).
This gives investors in TSM stock diversification within the sector. But as far as semiconductor stock predictions go, I’ll just say that the stock will be at the forefront of the chip market, when it turns around. Accordingly, with the sector’s focus now shifting to next-generation chips, that turnaround could come sometime in 2023.
That doesn’t make TSM stock an easy buy right now. It’s down 47% for the year. That’s more than double the drop in the S&P 500 this year. But at a price-earnings ratio of just 14-times earnings and a dividend with a current yield of approximately 2.9%, Taiwan Semiconductor should have a place on your watch list as we head into 2023.
Texas Instruments (TXN)
Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN) stock is down 19% this year. The reason can be traced to the automotive sector.
The company generates the bulk of its revenue from three primary sectors: automotive, industrial, and personal electronic. Although investors are most familiar with the company’s footprint in the personal electronic sector (i.e. the calculator company), it’s the automotive sector that gives it a real presence in the semiconductor space.
As far as semiconductor stock predictions go, 2023 is likely to be the year when supply chains get untangled. That may lead to a glut on the market that will temporarily be a headwind for TXN stock. But with battery electric vehicles making up only 5% of the nation’s vehicles, the future addressable market will be huge.
TXN stock is currently trading at a price-earnings ratio of around 16.5-times which makes it slightly more expensive than the sector average. However, the company does pay a dividend that currently yields over 3%, and the company has increased it for the last 18 consecutive years.
Intel (INTC)
It’s one thing for the United States to say it wants to bring home semiconductor manufacturing. It’s another thing for companies to be open to doing business stateside. Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) is trying to make that a reality, but the company’s $20 billion plant in Ohio won’t be open for business anytime in 2023.
That isn’t preventing the company from attempting to spend money to make that growth happen. In February 2022, Intel paid over $5 billion for the Israeli semiconductor company, Tower Semiconductor. The company was widely criticized for overpaying for Tower.
More recently, the company is raising more eyebrows by bringing Mobileye public during a bear market. Given the fact that Mobileye would likely be a highly sought-after stock once the market turns around, this acquisition is the latest to raise concerns about Intel’s balance sheet.
However, with a price-earnings ratio of 5.5-times and a dividend yield that is over 5%, INTC stock looks to be falling into the “too cheap to ignore” category.
Micron Technology (MU)
Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) has been one of the biggest losers in this sector in 2022. Currently, MU stock is down around 47% for the year. However, the company just announced it broke ground on a leading-edge memory manufacturing fab in its hometown of Boise, Idaho, the first new plant of its type built in the United States in the last 20 years.
What might be concerning investors is that the company continues to spend heavily on capital expenditures. In its last fiscal year, Micron spent more than $12 billion, which represented 39% of its revenue. However, the company believes these investments will pay off in the future.
That said, will investors believe it? One of my semiconductor stock predictions is that they will. In fact, with a price-earnings ratio of 7-times along with a consensus price target that suggests that the stock has a 36% upside, MU stock presents an intriguing buying opportunity for patient investors.
Lam Research (LRCX)
Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX) is another picks-and-shovels play in the semiconductor industry. The company makes the equipment necessary to make semiconductor wafers. This puts it on the leading edge of the semiconductor supply chain. The company is a leader and pioneer in the dry etch process. This allows the company to remove material with high-tech equipment.
Unsurprisingly, the company has been posting consistent year-over-year gains in both revenue and earnings. However, one of the most compelling reasons to own LRCX stock is that the company is based in the United States, and that makes it an easy winner as semiconductor companies look to shift to fabricating their chips within our borders.
LRCX stock has an attractive valuation at around 10-times earnings, and the company pays a dividend yield over 2%.
Applied Materials (AMAT)
Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) is a competitor of Lam Research. And the fact that I’m putting both companies on this list suggests that one of my semiconductor stock predictions is that U.S. companies will broadly benefit from export controls.
In the short term, the company will likely suffer due to slowing demand as well as competition from China. However, Applied Materials expects to grow its revenue at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% over time.
Additionally, as Alex Sirois wrote recently, investors can take advantage of the stock’s year-to-date drop which is positioning it as a value stock within the tech sector. Given the company pays a dividend that currently yields 1.4% yield with a payout of $1.04 on an annual basis, this is a stock with strong fundamentals right now.
Teradyne (TER)
The last stock on this list is not a semiconductor stock at all. Teradyne (NASDAQ:TER) manufactures testing equipment that is used for semiconductors. Teradyne is poised to benefit from the next generation of 3 nanometer semiconductor manufacturing technology.
This is a stock that proves boring can be beautiful. As you look at the company’s revenue and earnings over any length of time, you just see a company that delivers consistent results. What’s more, over half of that revenue comes from semiconductor testing.
This consistency is reflected in the fact that the stock has 98% institutional ownership. That means it’s included in a lot of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
That hasn’t stopped the stock from being down 55% in 2022. But the stock is trading at a price-earnings ratio of just over 15-times earnings and even pays a modest dividend that currently yields right around 0.6%.
On the date of publication, Chris Markoch did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=4e2ccd57010dae1ed5843a295e42bbe014bff5d64f6a9a57df436af97807c5f2 | TECL: Lining Up A Supercharged Bet On Fed Reversal Within Months | The Direxion TECL ETF is one of the most intriguing investment options. What do I say the timing for betting on TECL is not here yet? Click here to find out. | 2022-10-18T20:23:14 | SeekingAlpha | TECL: Lining Up A Supercharged Bet On Fed Reversal Within Months
Summary
- The latest CPI numbers do not bode well for those who continue to hope for a Fed policy reversal any time soon.
- Impending Russia oil sanctions, an end to strategic supply releases, and an OPEC+ plan to cut production suggest that oil prices will go higher, which will make inflation pressures worse.
- These considerations make the TECL fund an unattractive investment opportunity at the moment but by the spring of 2023 that is likely to change.
- Within a few months, enough demand destruction will occur globally to either tame the inflationary trends or for central banks to ease off regardless.
- The Direxion Technology Bull 3X Shares ETF Fund is likely to stage an impressive rally in response to a shift in the Federal Reserve's tightening policy, as it should be expected as capital-hungry tech companies will once more gain access to cheap capital.
Investment thesis: Even though there are plenty of official statements in regard to the Federal Reserve's commitment to its current path of monetary tightening, economic data coming our way in the next few months may potentially challenge that resolve. The Direxion Technology Bull 3x Shares ETF (NYSEARCA:TECL) is potentially one of the most intriguing investment options if one wants to try to time the Federal Reserve's pivot. Tech companies tend to be especially affected by interest rates, as they often need to access capital in order to carry out new projects, as the fast pace of technological change tends to require constant retooling of activities. The timing for betting on TECL is not here yet, but as I shall explain in this article, by the spring at the latest the Federal Reserve will probably have plenty of reasons to reverse course, as more and more economic data points will probably show a significant decline in economic activities, even if inflationary trends will continue to persist. At that point, this ETF should take off aggressively. However timing is everything, therefore one has to closely follow when it is time to make a move.
About the fund.
The composition of the fund is heavily weighted towards two companies, Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT), with these two companies collectively making up about 45% of the entire fund.
The rest of the top ten are all well-known household names in the tech sector, with these top names collectively making up about two-thirds of the entire fund.
As we can see, the TECL fund is down by about two-thirds over the past year, which is a testament to the risks involved if one gets the timing of investing in its shares wrong. The expense ratio of nearly 1%, which amounts to a slow-paced erosion of one's investment in the long-term, but this is by no means a long-term buy and hold. The fund's expense ratio is not exactly the deciding factors in whether one opts to invest in this fund or not. The prospects of a reverse in the Federal Reserve's current path, on the other hand, make this fund a very enticing prospect. First, there is the fact that tech stocks are likely to outperform if interest rates start moving back down. Then there is the 300% amplification of any average move of the fund's components, according to proportion of each component. Between these two factors, a well-timed investment decision could come with a huge potential upside.
Fundamental economic factors that are likely to cause a Fed pivot suggest that next spring might be the turning point.
For the past few months, there have been numerous predictions of an imminent reversal of the Federal Reserve's current path of monetary tightening. Most of it seems to have been based on wishful thinking rather than fundamentals. Yes, inflation stopped rising after one reading above 9%, and it is now down to just above 8% per month for a few months in a row. Month-over-month numbers are also encouraging, with inflation rising at a very moderate pace if the monthly numbers were to be annualized.
The problem with it is that it comes within the context of oil prices have declined by about 40% from this year's highs, which should have helped to make a bigger dent in inflation. The fact that it did not make a significant dent suggests that inflation has become self-sustaining, in other words, it is no longer fed by the initial factors that helped to ignite it. All impending events and other indications are that oil prices are not likely to see any further declines from current levels. If anything, we may see an increase, which will put further upward pressures on inflation in the coming months.
Looking at the latest OPEC monthly report, there are finally some downward revisions to global oil demand trends, in the face of what now seems to be a limping global economy, that might soon start outright shrinking if current trends persist.
As we can see, for the current quarter there was a significant downward revision in demand, and for every quarter in 2023 as well. I am personally looking one year out at the last quarter of 2023, which is where I think we need to see a further decline in demand of another 2 mb/d in addition to the 1 mb/d in forecast demand reduction, before we can assume that oil prices can head further down, providing the world's central banks with an opportunity to do their part in suppressing inflation through monetary tightening.
The reason why further demand destruction is most likely needed is that supplies are unlikely to be there to meet the demand growth trajectory we are seeing this quarter and going into next year. Between the US release of strategic reserves being on the verge of ending, Russian oil supplies being curtailed by sanctions, and OPEC seemingly unwilling to step in and make up for those shortfalls in supply, the flows of oil that are needed to meet that level of demand are simply not there.
The signs of the demand destruction that is needed to tackle inflation will come in the form of backward-looking data within the world's most important economies, such as consumer demand data, jobs data, and manufacturing. The latest consumer demand data in the US for instance suggests that we are seeing a flattening in consumer demand.
Other data points, like manufacturing and jobs data, have not been collaborating in this regard so far. Some indirect evidence seems to point towards these factors aligning into place in the next few months, but it remains to be seen. I expect that data points in the EU in particular will start to come in very ugly in the next few months, due to the unsustainably high energy prices. I expect that by spring of next year the economic data coming from most major economies around the world will be sufficiently bad to expect that global oil demand has been flattened at current consumption rates or lower.
There is one major factor that could throw this thesis into the dustbin, namely a Chinese policy pivot. It could scrap its Zero COVID policy just as the rest of the global economy enters demand destruction mode. Together with other stimulating factors, it could relaunch the Chinese economy onto a faster economic growth trajectory, which could be enough to offset the level of demand destruction we are starting to see some early evidence of, in the EU and US. If that happens, the US Federal Reserve as well as the ECB could be forced to remain on their monetary tightening trajectory for longer. It goes without saying that the timing of this trade, betting on a Fed reversal would have to change accordingly
There are also some potential factors that could move the timing of this tech ETF trade up by a few months. For instance, peace could break out between Russia & Ukraine, thus the Russia-Western World proxy war would end as well. That would help to ease up the global energy inflation situation, especially in Europe, but indirectly it would help the entire world. For instance, it would greatly ease the pressure on the US to export natural gas & diesel fuel. Food prices could benefit as well, since apparently, even though this was not the direct intention, Russian food & fertilizer exports have been impacted by the sanctions.
Investment implications:
I am not by any means a tech expert, which is why I mostly shy away from covering tech stocks. There are certainly some interesting potential bargains I identified for my own investment needs, that I find to have long-term value after they sold off heavily this year. AMD (AMD) for instance is now trading at just about $58/share after going as high as $168. With a forward P/E of around 15 and decent growth prospects beyond the recent global economic slowdown, it is probably a bargain at current levels, even if it may still have some more downside in the shorter term. Intel (INTC) is now trading at just over $26/share, while just over a year ago it was at $68. It is trading at a forward P/E of just over 12. Unlike AMD, it also comes with a generous dividend of over 5.5%, thus in the absence of a dividend cut, one can also enjoy getting paid to wait out the market rebound for semiconductors. I have been buying both stocks recently because I see both of them going higher in the long term. I am not overly concerned about the timing, because I am willing to wait for the fundamentals to be reflected in the performance of their stocks.
The TECL fund cannot be approached the same way. The amplified nature of the moves it makes relative to the overall market movements of its main component companies is as great of a risk factor on the downside, as it is a potential opportunity on the upside. For this reason, timing is everything, and this potential investment opportunity needs to be well-timed, in relation to the desperately awaited Fed pivot. If one can time this well, both in terms of entry as well as exit, it can potentially be one of the best trades of the decade for most people. It is an opportunity worth keeping an eye on. But it is also an opportunity that is not without some serious risk, in case the Federal Reserve play will not go according to plan.
This article was written by
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMD, INTC either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Comments (7) | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=f48859b972c29f6dc02a8960ad7f2d699ca0c79b543e3622777860a05c19b72b | Tracking Cathie Wood's ARK Invest 13F Portfolio - Q3 2022 Update | ARK Investâs 13F portfolio value decreased from $16.91B to $14.35B this quarter. Click to see the firm's trades for Q3 2022. | 2022-10-18T20:10:02 | SeekingAlpha | Tracking Cathie Wood's ARK Invest 13F Portfolio - Q3 2022 Update
Summary
- ARK Invest’s 13F portfolio value decreased from $16.91B to $14.35B this quarter.
- UiPath, Ginkgo Bioworks, and NVIDIA were increased while decreasing Spotify, Ionis Pharma, CRISPR Therapeutics, and Coinbase Global.
- The top three positions are Tesla Inc., Zoom Video, and Roku, and they add up to ~18% of the portfolio.
This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to ARK Invest' 13F portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on their regulatory 13F Form filed on 10/17/2022.
ARK Invest was founded by Cathie Wood in 2014. They manage several actively managed ETFs, index ETFs, and certain other international products. Assets Under Management (AuM) has come down from over $50B at the peak to ~$15B now. They invest in what they term "disruptive innovation" and the actively managed ETFs are ARK Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKK), ARK Autonomous Tech & Robotics ETF (BATS:ARKQ), ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKW), ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (BATS:ARKG), ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKF), and ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (BATS:ARKX).
This quarter, ARK Invest' 13F portfolio value decreased ~15% from ~$16.91B to ~$14.35B. The number of holdings decreased from 354 to 250. There are 44 securities that are significantly large, and they are the focus of this article. The top three holdings are at ~18% while the top five are at ~26% of the 13F assets: Tesla Inc., Zoom Video, Roku, UiPath, and Exact Sciences. Please visit our previous update for the fund's moves during Q2 2022.
Note 1: Unlike other investment management businesses, ARK is pioneering an open source model of investment research through a couple of initiatives: a) Valuation models on businesses are being made available to the public through GitHub, and b) daily trades are available to anyone who signs up for it. The open source model along with the outlandish forecasts has attracted criticism as well: in April, RIA lawyers urged SEC enforcement action.
Note 2: The 13F data on which this article is based is as of 9/30/2022. Updated daily holdings data for each of their ETFs are publicly available.
Note 3: Although as a percentage of the overall portfolio the positions are very small, it is significant that they have sizable ownership stakes in the following businesses: 908 Devices (MASS), Archer Aviation (ACHR), Accolade (ACCD), Arcturus Therapeutics (ARCT), Blade Air Mobility (BLDE), Berkeley Lights (BLI), Compugen (CGEN), Codexis (CDXS), Cerus Corp. (CERS), Editas Medicine (EDIT), Markforged (MKFG), Nextdoor (KIND), Nano Dimension (NNDM), Personalis (PSNL), Quantum-Si (QSI), Repare Therapeutics (RPTX), Surface Oncology (SURF), and Vuzix Corp (VUZI).
Stake Increases:
Zoom Video (ZM): The large (top three) 5.59% of the portfolio ZM stake was built over the last two years through consistent buying every quarter at prices between ~$74 and ~$559. The stock currently trades near the low end of that range at $78.23.
Roku, Inc. (ROKU): ROKU is a top-three 4.69% of the portfolio position built in the 2019-20 timeframe at prices between ~$33 and ~$357. Last four quarters have seen another ~150% stake increase at prices between ~$56 and ~$345. The stock is now at $53.23.
Note: they have a ~9.5% ownership stake in Roku.
UiPath Inc. (PATH): PATH had an IPO in April 2021. Shares started trading at ~$72 and currently goes for $12.26. The large (top five) ~4% of the portfolio position was built in the Q2 to Q3 2021 timeframe at prices between ~$52 and ~$80. Last four quarters have seen the position almost doubled at prices between ~$12.50 and ~$56.
Note: they have a ~10.5% ownership stake in UiPath.
Exact Sciences (EXAS): The large (top five) ~4% EXAS stake was built over the last nine quarters through consistent buying every quarter at prices between ~$32 and ~$155. The stock currently trades near the low end of that range at $35.29.
Note: they have a ~10% ownership stake in Exact Sciences.
Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA): NTLA was a minutely small position in ARK's first 13F filing in 2016. The 2017-2020 time period saw the position built to a ~11.2M share position at prices between ~$12.50 and ~$62. Since then, the stake has wavered. The first three quarters of 2021 saw a ~40% selling at prices between ~$52 and ~$177 while the last four quarters have seen a similar increase at prices between ~$38 and ~$138. The stock currently trades at $55.11, and the stake is at 3.77% of the portfolio.
Note: they have a ~13% ownership stake in Intellia Therapeutics.
Teladoc Health (TDOC): TDOC was a small stake until H2 2020 when a ~7.8M share position was purchased at prices between ~$183 and ~$238. Next quarter saw another ~85% stake increase at prices between ~$177 and ~$294. The quarters since have also seen minor buying. The stock currently trades well below their purchase price ranges at $25.45. The stake is fairly large at 3.69% of the portfolio.
Note: they have a ~13% ownership stake in Teladoc Health.
Block, Inc. (SQ): SQ was a small stake in the portfolio in their first 13F filing in 2016. The position was built during the 2018-20 timeframe at prices between ~$40 and ~$99. Last two quarters saw a ~45% stake increase at prices between ~$58 and ~$164. The stock currently trades at $57.27, and the stake is now at 3.52% of the portfolio. There was a marginal increase this quarter.
Twilio Inc. (TWLO): The 3.29% of the portfolio TWLO stake was built during the four quarters through Q2 2021 at prices between ~$224 and ~$435. Next quarter saw a ~13% trimming while the last four quarters have seen a ~110% stake increase at prices between ~$66 and ~$369. The stock currently trades near the low end of their purchase price ranges at $71.21.
Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings (DNA): The 2.76% DNA stake was built over the last four quarters at prices between ~$2.40 and ~$14. The stock is now near the low end of that range at $2.66.
Note: they have a ~11% ownership stake in Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings.
Shopify Inc. (SHOP): The bulk of the current 2.73% position in SHOP was built during the three quarters through Q2 2021 at prices between ~$92 and ~$147. The stake has since wavered. H2 2021 saw a ~40% selling at prices between ~$135 and ~$169 while the last three quarters saw a stake doubling at prices between ~$27 and ~$136. The stock is now at $28.73.
Unity Software (U): The 2.50% Unity stake was built during the four quarters through Q2 2021 at prices between ~$68 and ~$165. Q4 2021 saw a one-third reduction at prices between ~$126 and ~$197 while in the last three quarters there was a ~45% stake increase at prices between ~$32 and ~$139. The stock is now just below their purchase price ranges at $31.37.
Roblox Corp. (RBLX): The 2.12% RBLX position was built during the last four quarters at prices between ~$23 and ~$135. The stock currently trades at $43.38.
Fate Therapeutics (FATE): FATE is a 1.82% of the portfolio stake built during the seven quarters through Q3 2021 at prices between ~$19 and ~$116. Last four quarters have seen only minor adjustments. The stock is now at $21.64.
Note: they have a ~12% ownership stake in Fate Therapeutics.
10x Genomics (TXG), CareDx, Inc. (CDNA), Invitae (NVTA), NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), Pacific Biosciences (PACB), Schrodinger, Inc. (SDGR), TuSimple Holdings (TSP), Twist Bioscience (TWST), Verve Therapeutics (VERV), and Veracyte, Inc. (VCYT): These small (less than ~2% of the portfolio each) stakes were increased during the quarter.
Note: they have significant ownership stakes in the following businesses: CareDx, Invitae, Pacific Biosciences, TuSimple, Twist Bioscience, and Veracyte.
Stake Decreases:
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA): TSLA is the top position in the portfolio at 7.54%. It was already a small position in their first 13F filing in 2016. Recent activity follows. Q1 2021 saw a ~40% stake increase at prices between ~$199 and ~$293. Last six quarters have seen the position reduced by ~80% at prices between ~$217 and ~$407. The stock currently trades at ~$220. They are harvesting gains.
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP): The bulk of the current 3.75% of the portfolio position in CRSP was built in 2020 at prices between ~$38 and ~$169. The stake has wavered. Q1 2021 saw a ~20% selling while in Q4 2021 there was a similar increase. The stock is now at $56.90. There was a ~15% trimming this quarter.
Note: they have a ~11% ownership stake in CRISPR Therapeutics.
Coinbase Global (COIN): COIN had an IPO in April 2021. Shares started trading at ~$290 and currently goes for $66.21. The 3.47% position was built during Q2 & Q3 2021 at prices between ~$225 and ~$342. Next quarter saw a ~22% trimming at prices between ~$231 and ~$343 while the last two quarters saw a roughly two-thirds stake increase at prices between ~$49 and ~$252. There was a ~14% trimming this quarter.
Beam Therapeutics (BEAM): BEAM is a 2.82% of the portfolio position built over the last seven quarters at prices between ~$22 and ~$130. The stock is now at ~$48. There was a minor ~3% trimming this quarter.
Note: they have a ~13% ownership stake in Beam Therapeutics.
DraftKings (DKNG): DKNG came to market through a De-SPAC transaction in Q1 2021. The 2.61% of the portfolio stake was built through consistent buying every quarter since at prices up to ~$70. The stock is now at $13.55. There was a minor ~2% trimming this quarter.
Note: they have a ~6% ownership stake in DraftKings.
Robinhood Markets (HOOD): HOOD had an IPO in August 2021. Shares started trading at ~$55 and currently goes for $10.44. The 2.32% of the portfolio position was built through consistent buying over the last four quarters at prices between ~$7 and ~$55. This quarter saw minor trimming.
Spotify Technology (SPOT): SPOT had an IPO in April 2018. Shares started trading at ~$150 and currently goes for ~$88. The bulk of the original position was built during the four quarters through Q2 2021 at prices between ~$224 and ~$365. Next two quarters saw a ~17% selling at prices between ~$210 and ~$290. That was followed with a ~82% reduction in the last two quarters at prices between ~$88 and ~$159. ARK's stake is now very small at 0.48% of the portfolio.
Signify Health Inc. (SGFY): SGFY had an IPO in February 2021. Shares started trading at ~$39. The bulk of ARK's stake was built in H2 2021 at prices between ~$14 and ~$30. The position was sold down this quarter and the stake is now very small at 0.48% of the portfolio.
Note: In September, CVS Health (CVS) agreed to buy Signify Health in a $30.50 per share all-cash deal. ARK had a ~13% ownership stake in Signify Health as of Q2 2022.
2U, Inc. (TWOU), AeroVironment (AVAV), Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (OTC:GBTC), Incyte Corp. (INCY), Ionis Pharma (IONS), Iridium Communications (IRDM), Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS), Materialise NV (MTLS), MercadoLibre (MELI), PagerDuty (PD), Stratasys Ltd. (SSYS), Trimble Inc. (TRMB), and Vertex Pharma (VRTX): These very small (less than ~2% of the portfolio each) positions were reduced during the quarter.
Note: they have significant ownership stakes in the following businesses: 2U Inc., Kratos Defense & Security, Materialise NV, PagerDuty, and Stratasys.
The spreadsheet below highlights changes to ARK Invest' 13F holdings in Q3 2022:
This article was written by
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of QSI, COIN, GBTC, INCY either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Comments (43)
The bigger question is if her ARK Invest fund(s) would ever recover in the future. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=d795b68d864198f081eee6316e8df52fe1e50b942dded9cf4ba5e076b524292e | Why Shares of Nvidia, AMD, and Skyworks Are Rallying Today | Beaten-down semiconductor stocks rose on better-than-feared results from peers, and positive inflation data helped boost gains further. | 2022-10-28T12:59:32 | Yahoo | Why Shares of Nvidia, AMD, and Skyworks Are Rallying Today
Beaten-down semiconductor stocks rose on better-than-feared results from peers, and positive inflation data helped boost gains further.
Beaten-down semiconductor stocks rose on better-than-feared results from peers, and positive inflation data helped boost gains further.
Mark Spitznagel and Nassim Taleb have been watching for black swans for decades. "We’ve never seen anything like this level of total debt and leverage in the system," he tells Fortune. "It's an experiment."
Warren Buffett is undeniably the most famous and influential investor in modern history, based on his extraordinary performance record. Not surprisingly, the investment portfolio of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A), the holding company employing the Oracle of Omaha as chairman and CEO, receives wide media attention and scrutiny, even though Buffett is no longer making every investment decision. Despite his unparalleled success, Buffett's investment model has long been transparent, straightforward, and consistent.
Stocks have blown past expectations for 2023 – but some analysts are bracing for a sell-off as the market approaches record highs.
The JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF’s (NYSEARCA:JEPI) combination of high yield and monthly payments has quickly made it one of the market’s most popular ETFs. Investors who like JEPI’s style now have another high-yield competitor to consider — the NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF (BATS:SPYI), which also pays on a monthly basis and yields 10.7%. Let’s take a closer look at this intriguing new option for high-yield investors. What is SPYI ETF’s Strategy? Launched in August of 2022, SPYI is still a
Just because you retire doesn't mean you have to stop working. And when work is an option rather than a requirement, it's possible to select a low-stress job that multiplies fulfillment without adding anxiety - but still provides a bit … Continue reading → The post 12 Low-Stress Jobs You Can Do in Retirement appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.
Berkshire Hathaway historically reports its quarterly financial results on weekends, and CEO Warren Buffet has a simple reason why. Berkshire (ticker: BRK.A, BRK.B) reported second-quarter earnings Saturday morning. Many other public companies, however, release their earnings results during the trading week, either before the market opens or after the closing bell.
The market rally is at an infection point after notable losses. Here's what to do. Warren Buffett's Berkshire earnings rose.
Is there a point at which I should stop reinvesting stock dividends and invest the money or save the cash? -Anonymous Many financial experts recommend that you reinvest dividends most of the time – and I'm inclined to agree. The … Continue reading → The post Ask an Advisor: Should I Stop Reinvesting Dividends? appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.
There are many different approaches and strategies for retirement investing that might appeal to you. But how do you tell if a certain strategy works for your situation? When evaluating different approaches, consider how each strategy is put together and … Continue reading → The post Here's How Much to Keep in Stocks, Bonds and Cash in Retirement appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.
The week ahead will feature a crucial inflation report and earnings out of Disney, UPS, and Alibaba as second quarter earnings season winds down.
(Bloomberg) -- Dan Loeb is hardly the first Wall Street titan to lament how meme stock traders have made short selling a perilous endeavor. But that Loeb, who runs the hedge fund Third Point LLC, did so now is what’s interesting.Most Read from BloombergTexas Power Prices to Surge 800% on Sunday Amid Searing HeatNetanyahu Seeks to Change How Judges Are Named, Then Stop RevampChina Embassy Rips ‘Brutal’ Russia Border Incident in Rare MoveThe Most Dangerous Job for Lawyers Is Being on Trump’s Legal
AustralianSuper, one of the world’s largest pensions, halved its Apple stock investment and sold Microsoft stock, while buying shares of Tesla and Nvidia.
One in 6 asset and wealth management companies will be bought or shut down in the next five years, according to a PwC survey of asset managers and institutional investors.
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway operating profit rose by 10%. BRKB stock is just out of buy range.
Travel scams are on the rise. Don't be a victim.
VZ stock provides a dividend but a buyback has been shelved amid 5G wireless investments. When will revenue growth reaccelerate?
Will generative artificial intelligence boost Palantir stock in the commercial market amid slowing revenue growth for the company?
Retirement account withdrawals not only help you cover basic living expenses, but they also can fund the lifestyle you've always envisioned in your golden years. That money, however, can have unintended tax consequences. Required minimum distributions (RMDs) and other withdrawals … Continue reading → The post Social Security Taxes Can Hit You Hard in Retirement. Here's How to Lower Them appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.
Dubbed the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett is renowned for his simple and frugal lifestyle. Despite being the sixth richest person globally, with a net worth estimated at $117.9 billion, Buffett continues to live in the same modest home in Omaha that he purchased in 1958 for just $31,500. Adjusted for inflation, that amount today would be approximately $328,990.80, a mere 0.000279% of his total net worth. Buffett has consistently ranked the purchase of his home as the third-best investment he ha
As a pandemic-inspired boom ends, entrepreneurs and giant corporations alike are counting on customers to keep accumulating more stuff than they can squeeze into their homes. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=486fde8590c467d9d7e1aa7bb28383ee518241a1972c0df4b3e46ce18a45ef6a | NVIDIA Corp. stock outperforms market on strong trading day | Shares of NVIDIA Corp. rose 4.99% to $138.34 Friday, on what proved to be an all-around positive trading session for the stock market, with the S&P 500 Index... | 2022-10-28T10:13:00 | MarketWatch | Shares of NVIDIA Corp.
NVDA,
+0.37%
rose 4.99% to $138.34 Friday, on what proved to be an all-around positive trading session for the stock market, with the S&P 500 Index
SPX,
-0.53%
rising 2.46% to 3,901.06 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-0.43%
rising 2.59% to 32,861.80. This was the stock's second consecutive day of gains. NVIDIA Corp. closed $208.13 short of its 52-week high ($346.47), which the company achieved on November 22nd.
The stock demonstrated a mixed performance when compared to some of its competitors Friday, as Microsoft Corp.
MSFT,
+0.34%
rose 4.02% to $235.87, Intel Corp.
INTC,
+1.14%
rose 10.66% to $29.07, and Texas Instruments Inc.
TXN,
-1.96%
rose 3.76% to $161.36. Trading volume (52.0 M) remained 7.9 million below its 50-day average volume of 59.9 M.
Editor's Note: This story was auto-generated by Automated Insights, an automation technology provider, using data from Dow Jones and FactSet. See our market data terms of use. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=8d05b8393e0993d8d6540c2d8f7d0040503cf03ab0c85eb1e43a3c8b28c15538 | Meta Platforms: Finding The Anti-Bubble | Every market has a bubble and an anti-bubble. Finding it is the trick to long-term success. Click here to find out if Meta Platforms is an anti-bubble aspect. | 2022-10-28T07:40:09 | SeekingAlpha | Meta Platforms: Finding The Anti-Bubble
Summary
- Every market has a bubble and an anti-bubble. Finding it is the trick to long-term success.
- As tech was soaring, an anti-bubble was forming in energy, which would have been the best place to place capital during the COVID downturn.
- Energy is beginning to form a bubble with large-cap tech forming an anti-bubble, which I believe is an opportunity.
Big Tech is Forming an Anti-Bubble
After a big sell-off in "Big Tech," one has to be wondering if this segment of the market is forming an "anti-bubble." This is a term I like to harken back to from the Nomad Partnership Letters, where Nick Sleep described it as one of his favorite places to look for value.
When there is a frenzy of activity in one area of the market there is very often an anti-bubble of discarded companies. In the dot com era, these were companies with steady cash flow. Where is today's anti-bubble? - Nick Sleep, Nomad Letters p. 98.
I have very few segments of the market that I won't invest in, just different ways of evaluating different sectors. Some I look at value related to cash flow and growth, others a combination of assets and earnings, and some for the dividends and dividend growth. During the Covid downturn, energy was an obvious anti-bubble. Exxon Mobil (XOM) was trading at a .8 price-to-book value. The whole energy market was in free fall, and earnings cratered. However, their assets were invaluable in my eyes. As soon as the world opened back up, their product would be in demand at the exact time that production had been cut. I put all my investments for that time period into energy and banking.
At this moment, Tech seems to be at the dawning of a similar opportunity.
At the heart of it all, Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META), seems to be the poster child of what everyone hates and wants to sell. Is it logical? This is a company with very healthy free cash flow, a large coffer of cash reserves, as well as a cash printer in their core business. Yes, they have taken on an endeavor that is deteriorating the earnings of their core, but the bet on its success is not so much roulette, but more like bridge, baccarat, or even blackjack. It's a game of probabilities, and if we look at both a company's resources plus its return on invested capital, we can see how fair the game is.
Meta's Return on Invested Capital
When it comes to big tech, return on invested capital is my first and favorite metric to start with. How well does a company deploy its debt and equity? The most recent fiscal year return on invested capital for Meta is 28% versus an industry average of 20%. During the next fiscal year, this may decrease somewhat due to the Metaverse cash sink, but the starting line is healthy enough to take a hit and still beat the industry average.
Cash is something Meta is in no short supply of, with a TTM free cash flow of USD $26 Billion and a market cap that has been beaten down to $264 Billion. That's a price-to-free cash flow ratio of 10.1X. This is on par with the price-to-free cash flow ratio of Exxon Mobil (XOM), the last poster child of the anti-bubble that is trading near 10X free cash flow.
Let's also not forget that, during Covid, when Exxon was a dog, Meta was trading at 31-32X earnings. That number has now been sliced down to below 10X! The pendulum has now completely swung in the opposite direction, down is up, and up is down. However, this is completely normal, as capital flows from yin to yang in a Zen-like fashion. Calmly identifying both irrationality and where the anti-bubble exists is where rational eats the irrational's lunch.
Individuals were irrational to buy Meta at 32X earnings, but also irrational to not buy and dump at 10X. These individuals are the same people. To me, both the cash positions and the return on invested capital are parts of a decision tree that lead me to a logical conclusion of future success. I am not sure when that success will manifest, just that it will in time. I have time, just a few rational options.
Evaluating Your Decision Tree
A great Charlie Munger quote from the Nomad letters entails how one should invest and how it relates to the game of bridge:
In one of Charlie Munger's talks he makes the statement "the right way to think is the way Zeckhauser plays bridge, it's just that simple." Well, to a young man in London that is a very infuriating statement as it took me about a year to track down Richard Zeckhauser. He was world bridge champion in '66 and, amongst other things, now runs a brilliant Behavioral Finance course at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard. So, how does he play bridge? He thinks via decision trees and attaches probabilities to the various branches. And as the facts change, change the probabilities. And when you are comfortable dealing with probabilities, and the vast expanse of opportunities such as the global stock and bond markets, you don't have to be too conservative with your bets. But people don't think clearly when faced with probability trees.
In addition to the ROIC and free cash flow branches of my decision tree evaluation, cash and the balance sheet are equally as important:
With total cash on hand, mrq of $40.49 Billion, this leads my thought process to an amalgamation of possible outcomes. With $16 Billion in debt and a debt-to-equity ratio of 13.26%, debt is covered almost 2.5X. That is a huge margin of safety, but not a likely outcome for that cash (reducing debt). The small amount of debt is easily serviced by free cash flow, thus the $40 Billion can be used for acquisitions and R&D. TTM R&D by META is at USD $29 Billion. The more spent on this item as a percentage of their revenue is normally precedent for future success, and a high ratio was sought after by the late great Phil Fisher. With a TTM revenue of USD $119 Billion, R&D makes up 24% of revenue as a ratio. This is high indeed, leading me to believe that future outcomes of success are probable.
Acquisitions
Non-organic growth in Big Tech has proven to be fruitful for the largest operators. Meta is no exception, the company has made 97 acquisitions (not including the domain name), and Wikipedia has an excellent compilation. With so many pre-IPO unicorns being devalued and many post-Covid IPO darlings' share prices being reduced to rubble, that $40 Billion could go a long way in acquisitions. With new regulations upcoming, that will limit the amount of R&D expense that can be taken in a given year. More Big Tech acquisitions would be a logical positioning of capital.
Current Sources of Revenue and Income
From the above, we can clearly observe that although META owns 90+ businesses, revenue is still derived almost entirely from ad revenue. The core businesses of Facebook and Instagram are the drivers for paid ad revenue. The company was able to derive a record high $9.39 per user in 2021. However, as companies begin to reduce advertising budgets, especially for high-ticket items, this revenue per user is expected to drop off in a recession. This is where META is smart to pivot a bit, attempting to diversify their business could be a smart move.
Book Value
On a price-to-book value basis, Meta is currently trading at the cheapest valuation in its history. At 2.78X book value, the second lowest valuation was back in 2012 at 3.5X. The company has consistently traded in the 6-10X book value range. Say what you will about book value, but assets have value because of their potential to produce income. Not stating that every asset on the balance sheet is producing income or even revenue for that matter, but it adds a margin of safety, nonetheless. These are just more assets outside of the cash position that could be liquidated if they're looking to generate more capital. If the asset is deemed impaired and written off, it provides further tax benefits that can shelter earnings in lieu of some tax breaks that are being rescinded.
Valuation Based on PEG
With all Tech companies, I like to use Peter Lynch's valuation for growth companies using the trailing 5-year CAGR in EPS as my multiplier, removing the percent sign and TTM EPS as my multiplicand. This gives us a value at which stock would trade at a price-to-earnings/growth ratio of 1. Most analysts using the PEG ratio divided the current or future estimated P/E by the future forecast in earnings growth. The estimates are consistently wrong and not evidence-based. I've seen the PEG ratio of NVIDIA (NVDA) for instance, repriced several times. Heck, I've even seen it at a PEG ratio of sub 1 when it was trading at 75X earnings early in the year. Not realistic.
I do realize that META's growth engine has revved down, but the past 5 years are evidence in my decision tree that proves what management can achieve when the wind is beneath their wings. In companies with high ROIC, I give them the benefit of the doubt even when their growth is slowing.
Using an average estimate of $9.77 a share in EPS as my 5th year since we are so close to the year's end seems more appropriate than using the last full year's data in 2021. Starting with 2018, Meta clocked an EPS of $7.65 a share. Based on this conservative estimate, Meta would have a multiplier of only 5 (5% CAGR in EPS). With a TTM EPS of $12.76, that would imply a fair value of $63. However, if we harken back to the days when the metaverse was not negatively impacting earnings, the company had an EPS of $5.49 in 2017 ending with an EPS of $13.99 in 2021. That would be a CAGR in EPS of 20.5%, giving us a high-end range of 20.5X TTM EPS of $12.76, or $261 a share based on that data set. Again, I like to be conservative. If I average out the two numbers, I would get $162 a share.
At this point, using the PEG ratio in my mind is superseded by the plain fact that the stock is trading for less than the market multiple. Once this storm comes to pass and the metaverse is self-sustainable, the underlying earnings growth possibilities are still very compelling for the core digital advertising business. Just like we didn't need oil for a while, the economy doesn't need as much digital advertising when it is in a recession and interest rates are climbing. Once we exit a recession and lowered interest rates put more buying power back in the pocket of the consumer, digital advertising will be in high demand and possibly more expensive as the industry's weaker companies will fall by the wayside, reducing the capacity.
Catalysts
To me, the biggest catalysts will simply be economic growth. Advertising, especially for high-ticket items that require debt to purchase by the consumer, will only get back to growth when rate hikes pivot back in the other direction. This could be a long time off, possibly a couple of years. Companies like Meta and Google (GOOG, GOOGL) can float through the rough water. Just like we all needed more energy when we came out of our homes after lockdowns, companies will need more advertising after consumers get back into real estate and auto purchases. By the end of 2023, these companies should be ready to absorb not only increased demand but the demand of smaller firms that didn't have the balance sheet to make it through these times. Very similar to smaller oil projects being shut down, the larger firms will just absorb their demand.
Let's also not forget that 2023 will kick off presidential campaigns for 2024. We all know how many billions are spent on digital advertising for the presidential election. Yet another revenue catalyst.
Risks
If Meta continues to be valued as a growth story, we can see a $63 implied value based on a trailing 5-year PEG ratio using analysts' 2022 estimates. That's quite a bit of a downside. However, at this point, META becomes more of a value story just being priced lower than the market at less than 10X earnings and 10X free cash flow.
Summary
For investors willing to wait out the metaverse project and its effect on earnings, this is shaping up to be a great deal for the patient. I held back the temptation to write about META at earlier dates, but at under $100 a share, the price has become very compelling. The anti-bubble is certainly in Big Tech, and Meta shares have been decimated. However, when every other aspect of a company remains strong except the market sentiment and momentum, that is an opportunity. For a high-quality company like Meta, I'd be very willing to buy at 15X earnings, or $146 and below looking at analysts' 2022 EPS average estimates. However, I do recognize the downside if the market continues to price this based on growth in the near term versus its strong balance sheet and free cash flow. I am accumulating Meta Platforms here and would place outsized bets if it gets closer to $70.
This article was written by
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of META, GOOG, XOM, AMZN either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Comments (75)
- Reels is growing engagement and gaining ground against TikTok
- The AI supercluster appears to provide effective targeting despite IDFA
- WhatsApp monetization has begun in earnest and it is growing rapidly
- FB and IG have nearly 2 billion DAUs and continue to grow users, although ARPU is down a bit in the short termThe spending is just more enormous that anyone could have imagined. The portion of spending related to AI and data center buildout is high-ROI with near-term returns, but the RL portion is gargantuan and the timeline is unclear. We’re talking hundreds of billions over the next decade. It may be the largest investment any company has ever made in developing a new product. So with cash flows being cut by 30-50% for the next few years and lots of uncertainty, the stock has rerated based on current depressed earnings being the new status quo. Makes sense. Still hurts.
Amerika is deadly corrupt and finished.
I dont have any amerikan stocks in my portfolio
They are scheduled to spend $32B next year and even more the following year on META U.
They have never built anything other than an idea ie FB that was stolen
But seeing Cramer say he was wrong should be a big reason to hop on
The problem and reason why it it is getting all this beaten is because of all this pursuit for the next big thing that's gonna change the world and all this black hole of cash called metalabs, that even with the street warning and reccomending about a scale back in all this CAPEX for Metalabs, Zuckman seems to dont give a tiny rat's ass, telling 2023 will spend even more.So the question is: Will the company keep it's profitability range in the face of a 2023 recession and with all this investment that may end up in a dead end? | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=9dc0b0f78782596d161b0f526d13f9fd09e7032bf8a9ba08e373832ff115b94c | Ama-Gone: Why The Fed Is Still Not Bailing Your Poor Investments, Including Amazon | In May of 2022 we wrote why those expecting a Fed Put, would be put to the test as Amazon's fluff was unlikely to support a price even 50% lower. Read more here. | 2022-10-28T06:17:34 | SeekingAlpha | Ama-Gone: Why The Fed Is Still Not Bailing Your Poor Investments, Including Amazon
Summary
- In May of 2022 we wrote why those expecting a Fed Put, would be "put" to the test.
- Amazon's fluff was unlikely to support a price even 50% lower and we remained extremely bearish.
- The stock cracked on the Q3-2022 results and we tell you why we are not done yet.
- I do much more than just articles at Conservative Income Portfolio: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more. Learn More »
When we last gave our opinion on Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) it was poorly received by the cheerleaders. We did not like the valuation and felt the stock would drop at least 50% from the top.
Last time when AMZN's super bubble burst, the Federal Reserve had eased aggressively. We don't see any prospects for that this time and certainly there is far less room to ease compared to what was done there. So if AMZN dropped 92%, then don't be surprised if we get at least a 50% drop this time.
Source: Ama-Gone, Why The Fed Is Not Bailing Your Poor Investments, Including Amazon
And we are almost there...
We actually hit the down 50% mark in the post-market action after the results. So where do we go from here for this once vaunted high flyer?
Q3-2022
Net sales were lower than expected and came in with an increase of 15%. AMZN made sure everyone knew that exchange rates were making them take a bath and without the strong dollar, their sales would be up 19%. The big hit was in international where their sales were down 5% year over year. The much-vaunted AWS segment had sales move up by 28%, and this was a bit lower than the cloud growth from Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) or Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) (GOOGL). Both those names reported 30% plus growth rates in constant currency.
Of course, sales tell a small part of the story. Nobody has been worried about Amazon to sell you things. Making money on the other hand is a very different story. North America reported a $400 million operating loss, compared to almost $1 billion in profit in 2021. International had a $2.5 billion operating loss, worsening 171% year over year.
If there is one thing consistent about AMZN, it is that it likely has no idea how to get the international segment to even come close to an operating profit. At least you don't get whiplash modeling those numbers.
Cash burn was stunning across all levels. Free cash flow was an outflow of about $20 billion. AMZN's presentation actually led off with the slide below.
The 871% drop is one that should send shivers down even the most optimistic spines. Free cash flow less principal repayments on finance leases was an outflow of $28.5 billion.
Outlook
Guidance was for $144 billion in sales (midpoint) in Q4, implying a sales growth rate of 5% year over year. With real GDP at 2.6% and inflation over 8%, AMZN is badly trailing nominal GDP in sales growth, and it is not even a close call.
The growth story is done and AMZN's best case is to track nominal GDP sales growth. As inflation and real GDP slow down, we think these numbers will prove extremely optimistic.
The bigger question is when will this company actually make money consistently. It is already reached a sales level that is tracking nominal GDP. At that point you are more of a "value company" and not a "growth idea". Analysts obviously see things with green colored glasses and expect the best of outcomes. But even those numbers make AMZN ridiculously expensive.
50X next year's earnings that are based on sales numbers that now look impossible, is a recipe for more downgrades. A business breakdown also reveals some big holes in giving this a buy rating. AWS sales are slowing and will likely hit a brick wall in 2 years. AWS margins were down from 30% in 2021 (left) to 26% in 2022 (right)
We see cloud and web services become a commodity service within 2-3 years and expect margins to drop by 40% from these levels (sub 15% operating margin). If you buy that story, then you need to sell AMZN.
Verdict
Let's talk about that big increase. We are talking about that $5.55 billion in stock-based compensation, annualizing to $22 billion.
That alone knocks out the entire AWS operating income. Retail has of course not found a way to be profitable but valuing only the AWS at some crazy sales multiple will work out as well as valuing NVIDIA (NVDA) based on some arguably fictional addressable market numbers.
The Federal Reserve has shown a big reluctance to ignore the heavy inflation numbers. Yes, we might be at a peak inflation rate, but historical data shows that inflation takes about two years to trend below 6% once we peak above 8%.
Good luck getting interest rate cuts to support these insane valuations. We rate the shares a Strong Sell with a 1-year rice target of $70.00
Please note that this is not financial advice. It may seem like it, sound like it, but surprisingly, it is not. Investors are expected to do their own due diligence and consult with a professional who knows their objectives and constraints.
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Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Comments (38)
Amazon.Bomb (May 31, 1999)
ritholtz.com/...
Maybe cloud services are likewise vapourware, not financially investment wise. I'll drop out now and go back to energy suppliers.
www.bloomberg.com/... | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=394dc01237a354129950c15a1628612d546f1f9573ea5b4bac62587e381e1570 | Is Most-Watched Stock NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Worth Betting on Now? | Nvidia (NVDA) has been one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com users lately. So, it is worth exploring what lies ahead for the stock. | 2022-10-28T06:00:01 | Yahoo | Is Most-Watched Stock NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Worth Betting on Now?
Nvidia (NVDA) has been one of the most searched-for stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to look at some of the facts that could shape the stock's performance in the near term.
Shares of this maker of graphics chips for gaming and artificial intelligence have returned +7.8% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +4.6% change. The Zacks Semiconductor - General industry, to which Nvidia belongs, has gained 1.9% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?
Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.
Revisions to Earnings Estimates
Here at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.
Nvidia is expected to post earnings of $0.73 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -37.6%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -1%.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $3.47 points to a change of -21.9% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed -1%.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $4.54 indicates a change of +30.7% from what Nvidia is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed -0.6%.
Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Nvidia is rated Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Projected Revenue Growth
Even though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.
For Nvidia, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $5.99 billion indicates a year-over-year change of -15.7%. For the current and next fiscal years, $27.39 billion and $31.25 billion estimates indicate +1.8% and +14.1% changes, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise History
Nvidia reported revenues of $6.7 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +3%. EPS of $0.51 for the same period compares with $1.04 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.7 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +0.03%. The EPS surprise was -8.93%.
Over the last four quarters, Nvidia surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.
Valuation
No investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.
Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Nvidia is graded D on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Bottom Line
The facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Nvidia. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
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Zacks Investment Research | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=0e0e54aef8e27a03a3916e209fa5079757d93fe605cb23897e120ac8f3854690 | 15 Biggest Data Science Companies In USA | In this piece, we will take a look at the 15 biggest data science companies in USA. For more companies, head on over to 5 Biggest Data Science Companies In USA. Big data analytics, also known as data science, is one of the hottest fields in information technology. This is due to the fact that […] | 2022-10-28T03:48:13 | Yahoo | 15 Biggest Data Science Companies In USA
In this piece, we will take a look at the 15 biggest data science companies in USA. For more companies, head on over to 5 Biggest Data Science Companies In USA.
Big data analytics, also known as data science, is one of the hottest fields in information technology. This is due to the fact that it is nearly ubiquitous across industries, and the growth and popularity of the Internet has led to vast sums of data being generated daily for advertisers to capitalize on.
Estimates show that the amount of data that is generated globally will grow to unbelievable amounts. Research firm IDC believes that global data will grow at a stunning compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 61% between 2018 and 2025, to 175 zettabytes by 2025. For the uninitiated, a gigabyte of information contains 1024 megabytes, and a zettabyte has roughly 1,100 trillion megabytes - much larger than your daily Internet usage we'd assume. To better understand the significance of IDC's estimates, if all this data was written onto blu-ray disks, then these disks could be stacked to the Moon 23 times over.
This growth has also spurred a strong interest in the field itself, with the Department of Labor estimating that the data science sector is expected to grow by 26% through 2026. Naturally, this growth will also boost salaries in the field, and the average salary for the field sits at $111,000 in the U.S. right now. Finally, looking at the sector as a whole, Markets and Markets estimates that the data science platform market was worth $95 billion last year, and between then and 2026, it will grow at a CAGR of 27.7% to be worth $322.9 billion. It further outlines that the growth in the business and finance sectors will lead the way for the industry.
Therefore, it's fairly accurate to say that the data science sector has a great future ahead of it, and in today's piece we have narrowed down the top data science companies. Among these, the renowned players are Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT).
Photo by Science in HD on Unsplash
Our Methodology
We took a broad look at the data science industry to identify the various companies in it. These were then selected through their product portfolio strength and financial performance, following which they were ranked through Insider Monkey's 895 hedge fund survey for the second quarter of this year.
Biggest Data Science Companies In USA
15. SAP SE (NYSE:SAP)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 16
SAP SE (NYSE:SAP) is a German company that provides enterprise application software to allow firms to record their daily transactions, manage manufacturing and production, and run supply chain analytics. It is headquartered in Walldorf, Germany.
SAP SE (NYSE:SAP)'s fiscal third quarter results saw the firm bring in EUR11.27 billion in backlogs, indicating that there is still a strong demand for its services as global spending gets hammered by inflation and high interest rates. The company's data analytics platform lets its customers run analytics on a petabyte scale and transform data into business insights.
Insider Monkey's Q2 2022 survey of 895 hedge funds revealed that 16 had held a stake in the company.
Out of these, Ken Fisher's Fisher Asset Management is SAP SE (NYSE:SAP)'s largest investor. It owns 8.6 million shares that are worth $784 million.
Along with Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), SAP SE (NYSE:SAP) is a top data analytics stock.
14. Teradata Corporation (NYSE:TDC)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 26
Teradata Corporation (NYSE:TDC) provides a cloud data platform for enterprise analytics that lets its customers integrate diverse sources of data under a single roof. The company is based in San Diego, California, the United States.
Teradata Corporation (NYSE:TDC) is slated to generate $400 million in free cash flow this year and the next. Despite the firm taking on heavy losses in the second quarter, due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a stronger U.S. dollar - factors beyond its control - Teradata Corporation (NYSE:TDC) reported that recurring revenues from subscriptions represented 80% of the firm's $430 million of net sales.
Teradata Corporation (NYSE:TDC)'s analytics lets users manage their supply chain, finances, identity management, and sustainability. By the end of this year's second quarter, 26 out of the 895 hedge funds polled by Insider Monkey had held a stake in the firm.
Teradata Corporation (NYSE:TDC)'s largest investor is Jean-Marie Eveillard's First Eagle Investment Management which owns 11 million shares that are worth $424 million.
13. International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE:IBM)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 40
International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE:IBM) is a technology company that provides both hardware and software to companies. The firm is headquartered in Armonk, New York, and it is one of the oldest companies of its kind after being set up in 1911.
International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE:IBM) provides a host of data analytics solutions. These include enabling its customers to use machine learning and artificial intelligence to drive insights and increase productivity and cost performance. Its products are used by some of the largest companies in the world, such as Marriott, Ancestry, and ING. The company beat analyst estimates for its third quarter earnings and reaffirmed that it aims to generate $10 billion in cash flow this year.
Insider Monkey's 895 hedge fund survey for this year's second quarter revealed that 40 had held a stake in International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE:IBM).
International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE:IBM)'s largest investor is Peter Rathjens, Bruce Clarke, and John Campbell's Arrowstreet Capital which owns 2.6 million shares that are worth $372 million.
12. Splunk Inc. (NASDAQ:SPLK)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 47
Splunk Inc. (NASDAQ:SPLK) provides a real time data processing platform that allows users to index data, run searches, and deploy machine learning and data analytics. The firm is based in San Francisco, California, the United States.
Splunk Inc. (NASDAQ:SPLK) offers the Splunk Enterprise and the Splunk Hunk platforms for data analytics. Enterprise lets its users capture data from various organizational functions and aggregate it under the same roof, while Hunk lets them manage the data by making datasets and running queries. Additionally, Splunk Inc. (NASDAQ:SPLK)'s platform is versatile and it can be run on any machine, whether it's on a laptop or in a data center.
Needham injected fresh life into the shares in October 2022 when it speculated that the company's shares could be worth $120 each if it is bought by another firm. Insider Monkey's Q2 2022 survey of 895 hedge funds outlined that 47 had bought the company's shares.
Splunk Inc. (NASDAQ:SPLK)'s largest investor is Alex Sacerdote's Whale Rock Capital Management which owns 2.7 million shares that are worth $243 million.
Carillon Tower Advisers mentioned the company in its Q2 2022 investor letter. Here is what the fund said:
“Splunk Inc. (NASDAQ:SPLK), a leader in artificial intelligence solutions for corporate data logs and security, fell in a weak tech group. The company has been transitioning to more of a software-as-a service (SaaS) business model that has, we believe, temporarily depressed earnings and cash flow. We like Splunk’s leadership position in the industry and the company has installed a new CEO and is rolling out new features and products.”
11. Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:DAL)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 49
Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:DAL) is an American airline that is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. The firm provides flights all over the U.S., alongside vacation packages and maintenance services.
Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:DAL) uses a wide variety of analytics as part of its daily operations. These include developing the airline's flight times, using baggage systems to identify mishandled bags, coordinating with handlers, and sharing real time updates with customers. Other uses include creating customer profiles to analyze trends.
By the end of this year's second quarter, 49 out of the 895 hedge funds polled by Insider Monkey had invested in Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:DAL).
Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:DAL)'s largest investor is Alex Snow's Lansdowne Partners which owns 4.5 million shares that are worth $132 million.
Miller Value Partners mentioned the company in its Q3 2022 investor letter. Here is what the fund said:
“Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:DAL) ($29.42) is a high-quality airline (yes, there really is such a thing!). It didn’t issue any equity in the pandemic. It focuses on delivering a superb customer experience and has brand loyalty (including a stable revenue stream from partner American Express, growing at 20%/ year). Maybe the best evidence: it’s managed to outperform the S&P 500 over the past decade despite a horrible pandemic ending point (+13.2% vs. 11.7%1 ). It trades for 4x 2024 earnings! If it eventually trades at Southwest’s historical valuation, it implies this stock should double as well.”
10. VMware, Inc. (NYSE:VMW)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 52
VMware, Inc. (NYSE:VMW) provides cloud management, infrastructure, and digital security platforms. These include data center infrastructure and data storage platforms. The firm is based in Palo Alto, California, the United States.
VMware, Inc. (NYSE:VMW)'s business model is focused on big data and analytics, and its cloud platform supports a wide variety of platforms. These include MongoDB, ApacheHadoop, DataStax, Splunk, Greenplum, and CockroachDB. The company is also in the midst of a takeover attempt by Broadcom.
Insider Monkey studied 895 hedge fund portfolios for their June quarter of 2022 investments and discovered that 52 had held a stake in VMware, Inc. (NYSE:VMW).
Out of these, Jim Davidson, Dave Roux, and Glenn Hutchins's Silver Lake Partners is VMware, Inc. (NYSE:VMW)'s largest investor through a $4.7 billion stake that comes via 42 million shares.
9. MongoDB, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDB)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 55
MongoDB, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDB) provides commercial and community databases that allow users to index, query, and navigate through their datasets. The firm is headquartered in New York, New York, United States.
MongoDB, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDB)'s databases can run several analytical platforms and it combines core data functions such as personalization, fraud prevention, and predictive performance under a single roof to create application driven analytics such as aggregations, time series, and interactive charts.
As this year's second quarter ended, 55 out of the 895 hedge funds polled by Insider Monkey had invested in MongoDB, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDB).
MongoDB, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDB)'s largest investor is Jim Simons' Renaissance Technologies which owns 520,000 shares that are worth $134 million.
8. Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 67
Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) is one of the largest retail chains in the world that operates supercenters, superstores, and cash and carry stores. The firm is headquartered in Bentonville, Arkansas, the United States.
Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) is one of the largest users of data analytics in the world as well, as it collects petabytes of data from millions of customers every hour. Through this, the firm employs analytics to compensate customers for higher prices in the form of gift cards, map down product locations across thousands of stores, and create customer profiles.
Out of the 895 hedge funds polled by Insider Monkey during this year's second quarter, 67 had held a stake in Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT).
Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT)'s largest investor is Rajiv Jain's GQG Partners which owns 9.8 million shares that are worth $1.1 billion.
7. Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 69
Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) is an enterprise resource planning software provider that lets companies take stock of their daily transactions, plan their operations and supply chain, and communicate with other businesses.
Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL)'s platforms are built around data analytics and they provide customers with the ability to deploy their models virtually or on their premises. The analytics supported by these tools include machine learning, visual representation, data navigation, and automated data preparation. Deutsche Bank raised the company's share price target to $120 from $110 in October 2022, outlining that the firm's public cloud will drive revenue growth.
Insider Monkey's Q2 2022 survey of 895 hedge funds outlined that 69 had owned Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL)'s shares.
Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL)'s largest investor in our database is Jean-Marie Eveillard's First Eagle Investment Management which owns 25 million shares that are worth $1.8 billion.
6. NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 82
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) is an American company that designs and sells graphics processing units. These are used across a variety of platforms, including those to run advanced data analytics platforms.
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)'s GPUs are optimized for machine learning and artificial intelligence, two fields that are at the center of data science. This is due to the fact that they are able to squeeze in significantly more processing cores, which allows for more computing space for the data analytics applications to run. NVIDIA RAPIDS boosts the performance of advanced analytics by up to 20 times when compared to a similar central processing unit (CPU).
82 out of the 895 hedge funds had held a stake in NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) by the end of this year's second quarter according to Insider Monkey's survey.
Out of these, Ken Fisher's Fisher Asset Management is NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)'s largest shareholder. It owns a $1.1 billion stake that comes courtesy of 7.5 million shares.
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) joins Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) in our list of hot data science stocks.
Click to continue reading and see 5 Biggest Data Science Companies In USA.
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Disclosure: None. 10 Biggest Data Science Companies In USA is originally published on Insider Monkey. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=0a2a29a6aaca2be0d382404400a40b888d240b74cd0f65a1c514f8ef8e696211 | Dogecoin leads rises as largest cryptocurrencies start mixed | The largest cryptocurrencies were mixed during morning trading on Friday, with Dogecoin seeing the biggest move, rallying 4.38% to 8 cents. Uniswap led the... | 2022-10-28T03:00:00 | MarketWatch | The largest cryptocurrencies were mixed during morning trading on Friday, with Dogecoin
DOGEUSD,
-1.05%
seeing the biggest move, rallying 4.38% to 8 cents.
Uniswap
UNIUSD,
-0.36%
led the decreases with a 3.01% drop to $6.78.
Four other cryptocurrencies saw increases Friday. Polkadot
DOTUSD,
+0.67%
rose 1.55% to $6.45, and Ethereum
ETHUSD,
-0.24%
climbed 0.90% to $1,541.62.
Bitcoin Cash
BCHUSD,
-1.39%
and Bitcoin
BTCUSD,
-0.01%
rounded out the increases, ticking up 0.52% to $113.82 and 0.36% to $20,492.73.
In addition to Uniswap, three other currencies posted decreases. Cardano
ADAUSD,
-0.09%
slid 0.68% to 39 cents, and Litecoin
LTCUSD,
-0.21%
sank 0.38% to $54.88.
Ripple
XRPUSD,
+0.41%,
which rounded out the decreases, sank 0.33% to 47 cents.
In crypto-related company news, shares of Coinbase Global Inc.
COIN,
-3.79%
shed 1.40% to $71.46, while MicroStrategy Inc.
MSTR,
-3.32%
sank 0.27% to $269.82. Riot Blockchain Inc.
RIOT,
-3.93%
shares rose 0.44% to $6.87, and shares of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc.
MARA,
-4.41%
rose 0.73% to $13.75.
Overstock.com Inc.
OSTK,
-6.52%
climbed 2.75% to $23.92, while Block Inc.
SQ,
-13.64%
slipped 0.08% to $60.21 and Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
-2.11%
dropped 2.15% to $220.24.
PayPal Holdings Inc.
PYPL,
-2.23%
dropped 1.36% to $86.16, and Ebang International Holdings Inc. Cl A
EBON,
-2.53%
shares sank 0.13% to 31 cents. NVIDIA Corp.
NVDA,
+0.37%
climbed 2.14% to $134.58, and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
AMD,
+2.36%
increased 1.36% to $61.10.
In the fund space, blockchain-focused Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF
BLOK,
-1.86%
climbed 1.46% to $19.41. The Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF
BITQ,
-4.08%,
which is focused on pure-play crypto companies, rallied 1.26% to $6.44. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust
GBTC,
which tracks the Bitcoin market price, sank 0.41% to $12.10.
Editor's Note: This story, which tracks nine of the top cryptocurrencies and excludes stable coins, was auto-generated by Automated Insights, an automation technology provider, using data from Dow Jones, FactSet and Kraken. See our market data terms of use. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=9729b6508356075bfbfb932bad8cb0ea8466575e701407d4e2ba4b6577b9eb99 | Excited About Oracle Cloud? Not So Fast -- The Story Is Really About Nvidia | Oracle is putting up respectable growth numbers again, but a renewed partnership with Nvidia isn't the reason why. | 2022-10-28T02:30:00 | Yahoo | Excited About Oracle Cloud? Not So Fast -- The Story Is Really About Nvidia
Oracle is putting up respectable growth numbers again, but a renewed partnership with Nvidia isn't the reason why.
Oracle is putting up respectable growth numbers again, but a renewed partnership with Nvidia isn't the reason why.
Mark Spitznagel and Nassim Taleb have been watching for black swans for decades. "We’ve never seen anything like this level of total debt and leverage in the system," he tells Fortune. "It's an experiment."
Warren Buffett is undeniably the most famous and influential investor in modern history, based on his extraordinary performance record. Not surprisingly, the investment portfolio of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A), the holding company employing the Oracle of Omaha as chairman and CEO, receives wide media attention and scrutiny, even though Buffett is no longer making every investment decision. Despite his unparalleled success, Buffett's investment model has long been transparent, straightforward, and consistent.
Stocks have blown past expectations for 2023 – but some analysts are bracing for a sell-off as the market approaches record highs.
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Just because you retire doesn't mean you have to stop working. And when work is an option rather than a requirement, it's possible to select a low-stress job that multiplies fulfillment without adding anxiety - but still provides a bit … Continue reading → The post 12 Low-Stress Jobs You Can Do in Retirement appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.
Berkshire Hathaway historically reports its quarterly financial results on weekends, and CEO Warren Buffet has a simple reason why. Berkshire (ticker: BRK.A, BRK.B) reported second-quarter earnings Saturday morning. Many other public companies, however, release their earnings results during the trading week, either before the market opens or after the closing bell.
The market rally is at an infection point after notable losses. Here's what to do. Warren Buffett's Berkshire earnings rose.
Is there a point at which I should stop reinvesting stock dividends and invest the money or save the cash? -Anonymous Many financial experts recommend that you reinvest dividends most of the time – and I'm inclined to agree. The … Continue reading → The post Ask an Advisor: Should I Stop Reinvesting Dividends? appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.
There are many different approaches and strategies for retirement investing that might appeal to you. But how do you tell if a certain strategy works for your situation? When evaluating different approaches, consider how each strategy is put together and … Continue reading → The post Here's How Much to Keep in Stocks, Bonds and Cash in Retirement appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.
The week ahead will feature a crucial inflation report and earnings out of Disney, UPS, and Alibaba as second quarter earnings season winds down.
(Bloomberg) -- Dan Loeb is hardly the first Wall Street titan to lament how meme stock traders have made short selling a perilous endeavor. But that Loeb, who runs the hedge fund Third Point LLC, did so now is what’s interesting.Most Read from BloombergTexas Power Prices to Surge 800% on Sunday Amid Searing HeatNetanyahu Seeks to Change How Judges Are Named, Then Stop RevampChina Embassy Rips ‘Brutal’ Russia Border Incident in Rare MoveThe Most Dangerous Job for Lawyers Is Being on Trump’s Legal
AustralianSuper, one of the world’s largest pensions, halved its Apple stock investment and sold Microsoft stock, while buying shares of Tesla and Nvidia.
One in 6 asset and wealth management companies will be bought or shut down in the next five years, according to a PwC survey of asset managers and institutional investors.
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Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway operating profit rose by 10%. BRKB stock is just out of buy range.
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Will generative artificial intelligence boost Palantir stock in the commercial market amid slowing revenue growth for the company?
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Dubbed the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett is renowned for his simple and frugal lifestyle. Despite being the sixth richest person globally, with a net worth estimated at $117.9 billion, Buffett continues to live in the same modest home in Omaha that he purchased in 1958 for just $31,500. Adjusted for inflation, that amount today would be approximately $328,990.80, a mere 0.000279% of his total net worth. Buffett has consistently ranked the purchase of his home as the third-best investment he ha
As a pandemic-inspired boom ends, entrepreneurs and giant corporations alike are counting on customers to keep accumulating more stuff than they can squeeze into their homes. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=b2767b2f89359d2a63800dd30e71b6b1742d5d356cce55c6e7b654ff964366f1 | Top 5 3rd Quarter Trades of Yo - GuruFocus.com | GuruFocus Article or News written by insider and the topic is about: | 2022-10-28T02:01:00 | GuruFocus | Yong Rong (HK) Asset Management Ltd recently filed their 13F report for the third quarter of 2022, which ended on 2022-09-30.
The 13F report details which stocks were in a guru’s equity portfolio at the end of the quarter, though investors should note that these filings are limited in scope, containing only a snapshot of long positions in U.S.-listed stocks and American depository receipts as of the quarter’s end. They are not required to include international holdings, short positions or other types of investments. Still, even this limited filing can provide valuable information.
ROOM 2505, 25/F, COSCO TOWER SHEUNG WAN, K3 000000
As of the latest 13F report, the guru’s equity portfolio contained 8 stocks valued at a total of $31.00Mil. The top holdings were GDX(30.93%), QD(21.95%), and YSG(15.80%).
According to GuruFocus data, these were Yong Rong (HK) Asset Management Ltd’s top five trades of the quarter.
Qudian Inc
The guru established a new position worth 7,605,000 shares in NYSE:QD, giving the stock a 21.95% weight in the equity portfolio. Shares traded for an average price of $1.07 during the quarter.
On 10/28/2022, Qudian Inc traded for a price of $0.8005 per share and a market cap of $209.55Mil. The stock has returned -52.30% over the past year.
GuruFocus gives the company a financial strength rating of 7 out of 10 and a profitability rating of 7 out of 10.
In terms of valuation, Qudian Inc has a price-book ratio of 0.11, a EV-to-Ebitda ratio of -31.98 and a price-sales ratio of 1.29.
Advanced Micro Devices Inc
The guru sold out of their 335,500-share investment in NAS:AMD. Previously, the stock had a 20.01% weight in the equity portfolio. Shares traded for an average price of $85.15 during the quarter.
On 10/28/2022, Advanced Micro Devices Inc traded for a price of $60.4916 per share and a market cap of $96.05Bil. The stock has returned -50.89% over the past year.
GuruFocus gives the company a financial strength rating of 9 out of 10 and a profitability rating of 6 out of 10.
In terms of valuation, Advanced Micro Devices Inc has a price-earnings ratio of 25.00, a price-book ratio of 1.74, a EV-to-Ebitda ratio of 16.28 and a price-sales ratio of 3.81.
The price-to-GF Value ratio is 0.42, earning the stock a GF Value rank of 4.
NVIDIA Corp
The guru sold out of their 145,200-share investment in NAS:NVDA. Previously, the stock had a 17.17% weight in the equity portfolio. Shares traded for an average price of $158.09 during the quarter.
On 10/28/2022, NVIDIA Corp traded for a price of $134.14 per share and a market cap of $328.08Bil. The stock has returned -46.05% over the past year.
GuruFocus gives the company a financial strength rating of 8 out of 10 and a profitability rating of 10 out of 10.
In terms of valuation, NVIDIA Corp has a price-earnings ratio of 43.20, a price-book ratio of 13.75, a price-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 1.35, a EV-to-Ebitda ratio of 34.49 and a price-sales ratio of 11.23.
The price-to-GF Value ratio is 0.53, earning the stock a GF Value rank of 8.
Yatsen Holding Ltd
The guru established a new position worth 4,520,000 shares in NYSE:YSG, giving the stock a 15.8% weight in the equity portfolio. Shares traded for an average price of $1.31 during the quarter.
On 10/28/2022, Yatsen Holding Ltd traded for a price of $1.13 per share and a market cap of $674.95Mil. The stock has returned -61.82% over the past year.
GuruFocus gives the company a financial strength rating of 6 out of 10 and a profitability rating of 1 out of 10.
In terms of valuation, Yatsen Holding Ltd has a price-book ratio of 0.88, a EV-to-Ebitda ratio of -1.16 and a price-sales ratio of 0.97.
Block Inc
The guru sold out of their 229,500-share investment in NYSE:SQ. Previously, the stock had a 11% weight in the equity portfolio. Shares traded for an average price of $70.8 during the quarter.
On 10/28/2022, Block Inc traded for a price of $60.72 per share and a market cap of $35.57Bil. The stock has returned -76.18% over the past year.
GuruFocus gives the company a financial strength rating of 6 out of 10 and a profitability rating of 4 out of 10.
In terms of valuation, Block Inc has a price-book ratio of 2.09, a EV-to-Ebitda ratio of -161.08 and a price-sales ratio of 1.89.
The price-to-GF Value ratio is 0.29, earning the stock a GF Value rank of 2.
Please note, the numbers and facts quoted are as of the writing of this article and may not factor in the latest trading data or company announcements.
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This article is general in nature and does not represent the opinions of GuruFocus or any of its affiliates. This article is not intended to be financial advice, nor does it constitute investment advice or recommendations. It was written without regard to your individual situation or financial goals. We aim to bring you fundamental, data-driven analysis, The information on this site is in no way guaranteed for completeness, accuracy or in any other way. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=5a770ee9abe3cecfd680a15206c8151c5d760d8114e838229479528d47d7d599 | Is Nvidia And Oracle's Partnership Expansion Good For Business Outlook? | Nvidia's partnership with Oracle could help negate the adverse developments that have cropped up due to geopolitical risks. Read more to find out how. | 2022-10-28T01:30:00 | SeekingAlpha | Is Nvidia And Oracle's Partnership Expansion Good For Business Outlook?
Summary
- NVDA’s partnership with OCI could help negate the adverse developments that have cropped up due to geopolitical risks.
- NVDA’s powerful AI-ready infrastructure feels like a good fit to harness Oracle’s deep data repositories.
- NVDA’s forward valuations look attractive and the risk-reward on the weekly chart does not look too bad.
- However, institutions still continue to shun the stock, and it does not look like it will be an apt rotation candidate for those fishing in the semiconductor or AI arenas.
Introduction
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), a trailblazer in accelerated computing reports under five divisions. Over the years, the Data Center segment has grown to become a vital fulcrum of the overall story. In Q2, this division contributed $3.8bn of revenue (that is more than any other division), accounting for 57% of NVDA’s overall topline.
When things were moving along quite smoothly here, it was rather dispiriting to note that the company had become a victim of geopolitical tensions between China and the US; in late August/early September, the US government imposed new license requirements which would hinder the ability of NVIDIA to export its A100 and upcoming H100 GPUs without much encumbrances. NVDA is now in the process of working out alternative solutions to mitigate this impact, but the initial reading is that this development could prove to impact revenues to the tune of $400m per quarter. That would imply a roughly 11% impact on the data center business which is certainly not ideal, particularly when the other large division- gaming, continues to slow down every quarter.
The Implications Of The Nvidia and Oracle Partnership
Whilst NVIDIA continues to figure out the best course of action for the Chinese market going forward, it was heartening to read about another development a few days back- the expansion of an ongoing multiyear alliance with Oracle (ORCL), which is designed to enhance Oracle Cloud Infrastructure’s (OCI) positioning with its enterprise clients (these clients will now have access to all of NVDA’s AI platforms). Needless to say, this will also provide added visibility for NVIDIA’s AI, which can only be good for further and rapid adoption from other parties.
As part of the “multi-year” deal, OCI will be adding “tens of thousands more NVIDIA GPUs, including the A100 and upcoming H100”. I believe this could be a very symbiotic connection for both entities; we know that ORCL’s databases attract a plethora of companies that use them to store chunks and chunks of raw enterprise data. But just having the data isn’t enough; you need the requisite AI-ready infrastructure, and there are not too many companies that can offer what NVDA does
Leave aside the H100 for now, which is still in the works, but using the A100 80GB GPU, OCI could cater to a diverse set of AI workloads for its clients, particularly deep learning training, and the creation of data frames, at 3x the level of an A100 40GB GPU. One can combine the A100 GPU with Oracle’s innate low latency cluster networks and you get a landscape where enterprise clients could potentially host around 500GPUs in a cluster. The “pace” and “scale” at which this mammoth data is harnessed and made sense of (how best can we address gaps in the market, how can we speed up product development, etc.) will likely make this one of the most glimmering partnerships in the industry.
I also feel this partnership with ORCL could more than negate the adverse impact of the recent geopolitical events, although, given the paucity of publicly disclosed numbers, one can’t be too certain of a definitive contract figure.
For instance, we don’t know the mix of A100 and H100 GPUs this Oracle partnership calls for; to be conservative, I’m considering only the A100 Tensor Core 80GB GPU which is priced at $13,999 as per public data (the H100 which could typically facilitate AI training at 9x the speed of an A100 GPU, will no doubt be priced at much superior rates). Then, “tens of thousands” could be any number from 10000 units to 99000 units, but assuming the A100 80GB GPU pricing, you’re looking at a potential boost of anything from $140m to $1400m. This is also unlikely to be limited to just hardware. There could also be a few additional millions linked to enterprise support work designed to make the AI software run more efficiently, across the subscription period, which could extend for a few years. We'd have to wait for more clarity for the nuances of this deal, and one may likely get it on the 16th of November when they announce Q3 results.
Closing Thoughts- Is NVDA Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?
After gauging some of the other sub-plots related to the NVIDIA story, it’s fair to say that we’re looking at a rather mixed picture.
After giving up close to two-thirds of its value from lifetime highs, the forward valuations for NVDA's stock certainly look a lot more palatable. We know that the FY Jan 2023 numbers will likely be nothing to write home about, with flattish revenue growth (roughly $27bn yet again) and a 24% decline in the EPS YoY.
For the FY Jan 2024 though, the narrative is likely to perk up, with expected revenue of $31.3bn and an EPS of $4.47; this would translate into a forward P/E of roughly 29x, which I believe is quite a steal when you consider that the 5-year average is a lot higher at 52x! The current multiple also puts it a lot closer to the lower end of the 5-year forward P/E band of 25-99x.
The attractive valuation backdrop can be further substantiated by the level of earnings growth you’re getting at this multiple. An expected EPS of $4.47 translates to 33% bottomline growth, and with a P/E of just 29x, you’re staring at a forward PEG ratio of less than 1x! This feels criminally low for an enterprise which is at the forefront of bringing through critical next-generation tech. I remain doubtful if we will see too many instances where NVDA’s forward P/E is lower than the earnings growth on offer (just for some additional context the 5-year PEG average is above 8x).
When I shift focus to NVIDIA’s weekly chart, there’s no evidence yet of a reversal from the downtrend that has been in play for close to a year. But, if you’re looking for green shoots, there’s decent probability that the stock attempts to build some sort of floor around the current levels, as it coincides with the congestion zone of $120-$160, last seen during August 2020-May 2021. Even if you’re bearish about NVIDIA’s prospects over the long-run, and think the descending channel pattern could continue to persist, the stock still offers decent risk-reward at current levels, as it is a long way from the upper boundary of the descending channel.
Having said that, I suspect, for the stock to make big moves on the upside you would need the spending power of the institutional cohort; but so far, they’ve shown little inclination to get on board. In fact, the latest data shows that these guys continue to bail on the stock, with the aggregate shares owned by them, declining for yet another month, to $2.579bn.
Besides, based solely on the relative strength ratio of the NVIDIA stock and other options in the semi space, it doesn’t look like the former will be a prime rotational candidate; as you can see from the image below, despite correction from the +1 levels, the current RS ratio of NVDA and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is still above the mid-point (0.55x) of the long-term range.
A similar takeaway can be gleaned from the image below which measures NVDA’s strength vs its peers from the robotic and AI space as represented by the Global X Robotics and AI ETF (BOTZ).
To conclude, the NVDA stock is a HOLD.
This article was written by
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Comments (4) | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=b6b65557437adc07e5a9f727956d80642fab5c5ec10d85f8221cf5d6d56a9849 | NIO: Xi Jinping's China Is Uninvestable | I believe that the downside of owning Chinese-based companies outweighs all potential growth opportunities. Read what this means for NIO stock. | 2022-10-27T23:45:00 | SeekingAlpha | NIO: Xi Jinping's China Is Uninvestable
Summary
- The reelection of Xi Jinping for an unprecedented third term as a general secretary of the CCP creates new risks for investing in Chinese-based companies.
- While NIO Inc. is an attractive EV company that trades at a reasonable price, it’ll likely face new and unprecedented challenges that it wouldn’t be able to overcome.
- As the risks of confrontation between China and the collective West are rising with each year, I believe that the downside of owning Chinese-based companies outweighs all potential growth opportunities.
- Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of BlackSquare Capital get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More »
Until recently, NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) has been the only stock of the Chinese-based firm in my portfolio. Unlike Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA), the automotive company hasn't been as big as its tech counterpart to pose any threat to Beijing. That's why when the Chinese-based tech companies faced a government crackdown that wiped billions of dollars in shareholder value in the last couple of years, NIO has been able to thrive and expand its position in the growing Chinese electric vehicle ("EV") market without worrying too much about politics. However, it seems that that period is coming to an end.
The recent reelection of Xi Jinping for an unprecedented third term as the general secretary of the CCP during the 20th National Congress last week gives me reasons to believe that it's no longer worth it to hold even stocks of Chinese-based firms that haven't been affected by the latest crackdowns much. In addition to the economic policies, which hurt NIO's financials earlier this year and are likely to continue to be implemented in the future, there's also a risk that the business wouldn't be able to overcome the upcoming political and geopolitical challenges simply due to the fact that they would be outside of its control. Therefore, even though NIO's stock has significantly depreciated recently along with the stocks of other Chinese-based firms, I don't think that the company trades at a bargain, and now could be a good time to double down and increase the portfolio's exposure to it as there are reasons to believe that Xi Jinping's China has become uninvestable.
Welcome To The New Reality
One of the upsides of owning NIO is the exposure to the growing Chinese EV market. As Beijing aims for China to become a carbon-neutral nation by 2060, one of the ways to achieve such a goal is to accelerate the production and deployment of electric vehicles, which don't emit greenhouse gases in comparison to traditional ICE vehicles.
Even though NIO has certain disadvantages, such as the lack of its own manufacturing facility as it outsources the production to third parties, which is something that I've covered in my articles on the company in the past, the firm nevertheless managed to become one of the most popular EV brands in China. Until recently, NIO was on a path to even more aggressively expand its footprint in China and abroad, and that was one of my main reasons for purchasing its stock. However, there's a risk now that the NIO's growth wouldn't be as aggressive as previously forecasted, which makes it important to reevaluate the position in the company.
There are several reasons to be cautious going forward. First of all, during the opening of the 20th National Congress on October 16, Xi Jinping gave a speech in which he praised China's response to the Covid-19 pandemic and doubled down on the zero-Covid policy, which has negatively affected NIO's financials and growth prospects earlier this year. Back in April, NIO's deliveries were down almost in half Q/Q due to Covid-19-related lockdowns, while in May the rebound of the deliveries due to the reopening of China's major cities was still below the initial delivery targets. Considering that Beijing's policy in regards to lockdowns won't change and there are already reports of new lockdowns taking place right now, there's constantly a risk that the city in which NIO's production partner JAC operates could be quarantined, once again creating a scenario under which NIO fails to meet its deliveries targets and disappoints its shareholders.
At the same time, despite unveiling various fiscal stimulus packages by Beijing, it seems that the Chinese economy is not growing as aggressively as expected, mostly due to the fact that Covid-19 lockdowns continue to negatively affect the growth rates. While in Q3, China claims that its GDP has increased by 3.9% Y/Y, there are signs that its economy nevertheless weakens as home prices have declined for the 13th consecutive month, retail sales slowed down, and the budget deficit already nears a record $1 trillion.
With slower retail sales and a falling housing market, questions are being raised about how long can China's electric vehicle market continue to grow at an aggressive rate in the current environment. While the latest data shows that the penetration of electric vehicles in China increases at an impressive rate, companies like Tesla (TSLA) already began to drop prices there. Elon Musk even believes that China is in a recession of sorts, and as a result, his company likely wouldn't be able to meet deliveries target this year. Elon could be right in the end, considering that China's consumer confidence index is currently at its historical lows and, as a result, there's a risk that, in the following months, other automakers would also face additional economic challenges. This could also negatively affect NIO's ability to meet its own annual deliveries target.
What's Next For NIO?
One of the biggest red flags from the latest National Congress is the fact that in addition to the reelection of Xi Jinping for an unprecedented third term, the reshuffling of the Politburo Standing Committee from which pro-market reformists were sacked and replaced with party loyalists also gives more reasons for concern. I have already noted in my latest article on Alibaba that Xi Jinping's constant reiteration of Marxism along with the desire to achieve common prosperity, which includes the redistribution of wealth and already is about to cost Alibaba ~22% of its liquidity, signals that the political interests will prevail over the economic reasoning going forward.
As a result of this, it's safe to assume that the cost of exposing your portfolio to the Chinese EV market via a long position in NIO now is significantly greater than before due to the political aspect. Considering that the risks of state intervention are high, it won't surprise me that somewhere down the road Beijing starts to strengthen its grip over the automotive industry the same way that it did over the tech industry via various economic and political means.
On top of the internal challenges that NIO is facing, there are also geopolitical risks, which for some might outweigh all the potential growth opportunities that the company offers. First of all, even though Beijing decided to allow the U.S. inspectors to audit the books of the Chinese-based firms, there's still no guarantee that the inspection would be successful. There's always a possibility that the Chinese side wouldn't honor their part of the deal, since they had already done so in the past when they decided not to cooperate after signing a Memorandum of Understanding back in 2013.
Secondly, even if the latest audit would be successful, NIO would continue to offer its shares on the public exchanges only in the form of a variable interest entity (VIE), which gives investors no voting rights and no share in the Chinese-based company itself, as ownership is granted only to the shell subsidiary on the Cayman Islands. At the same time, it gives the Chinese regulators the ability at their own discretion to prohibit their companies from using the VIE structure in case of a further confrontation with the West, as VIEs themselves are neither recognized nor denied by the Chinese regulators.
Thirdly, while NIO primarily operates in China, its business is dependent on the imports of American-designed chips that are used in its AI projects. NIO has been actively using Nvidia's (NVDA) A100 chips to build data centers that power the software that's used in its vehicles. After the Biden administration's decision to ban the export of A100 chips to China, there's a possibility that NIO wouldn't be able to fully realize its AI ambitions and fully automate its fleet of vehicles, which in the end could make its car offering less attractive to consumers.
Last but not least, the current sentiment regarding the stocks of Chinese-based companies is extremely bearish. After the end of the National Congress on Sunday, the stocks of the Chinese-based firms continued to depreciate and trade significantly lower in comparison to the rest of the market, as could be seen in the chart below where a YTD performance of NIO's shares are compared with the YTD performance of the S&P 500 index.
With all of that in mind, it becomes obvious that NIO is now facing multiple internal and external challenges that it's unlikely to overcome due to them being outside of its control. As a result, Seeking Alpha's Quant rating system gives the company's stock a HOLD rating but leans close to sell since the business is losing its momentum while at the same time losses are mounting.
The Bottom Line
The latest developments in China suggest that no stock of any Chinese-based firm is safe from the political, economic, and geopolitical challenges that the whole country is facing or is about to face. Even though NIO offers decent exposure for the Chinese EV market for investors, I believe that as the risks of confrontation between China and the collective West are rising with each year, while the zero-Covid policy would likely continue to wreak havoc on the Chinese economy, the downsides of owning Chinese-based companies outweigh all potential growth opportunities. Therefore, I recently closed my long position in NIO and have no plans to expose the portfolio to any other stock of a Chinese firm in the foreseeable future.
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This article was written by
It was there that I started to combine my academic knowledge with a passion for investing to build an all-weather portfolio that could overcome periods of constant economic and political uncertainty. Given the systemic shocks that have been happening to Ukraine in the last decade, I saw firsthand what’s it like to live in an environment where there’s too much unpredictability and no guarantee that your endeavors won’t fail. Despite this, I managed to show strong returns and since 2015 have been sharing some of my ideas here on Seeking Alpha.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Bohdan Kucheriavyi and/or BlackSquare Capital is/are not a financial/investment advisor, broker, or dealer. He's/It's/They're solely sharing personal experience and opinion; therefore, all strategies, tips, suggestions, and recommendations shared are solely for informational purposes. There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks, bonds, options, exchange-traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involves the risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high-risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including greater volatility and political, economic, and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Comments (68)
All things the biggest "democracy" in the world does systematically when a country dares to something Uncle Sam doesn't like.
Not even speaking about overthrowing governments they simply don't like.
"trying to stop China spies from identifying Taiwan military targets!"
As though China doesn't already have those targets identified.
Yeah, it's America's fault is a common theme in China, and especially Russia.
With one signature Biden has eliminated that, and there's no way for China to regain access anytime soon.
And it's not just the Chinese automakers that will be affected, but every Chinese company that uses semiconductors.
Unless something changes, China is headed to the dark ages. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=e9e6d2b03935dbff1ce187aa3684c60fec4c4db92f06d9ca85becf17d9b50b59 | Claret Asset Management Q3 2022 Quarterly Letter | Ghoulish spirits are haunting the stock market, and investors are getting spooked. Click here to read our latest Quarterly Letter recapping the ins and outs. | 2022-10-27T21:35:00 | SeekingAlpha | Claret Asset Management Q3 2022 Quarterly Letter
Summary
- Higher interest rates will eventually act as a brake to this economy on steroids that is mainly funded through extreme fiscal largesse and printed money by central banks.
- Either inflation must come down or interest rates have to go up further. Or both. And probably both.
- Before the bear market is over, we could witness some sort of credit event.
- We are convinced that compounding is the magic in accumulating wealth, especially compounding with other people’s money.
The Bumpy Road to Equilibrium…
The push and pull of inflation and interest rates, full employment and millions of jobs unfilled, unchecked demand and broken supply chains, exuberant investors, and shameless hucksters – all make for a wild ride as the Fed tries to pull on the reins of a frothy economy by taking away the punch bowl of free money. Inflation finally slows the endless desire to consume and the reality of the economic imbalances bites.
Let’s start with interest rates…
As we mentioned in our last quarterly letter, higher interest rates will eventually act as a brake to this economy on steroids that is mainly funded through extreme fiscal largesse and printed money by central banks. Since then:
- The first signs of a slowdown have been announced by FedEx in September 2022, calling for significantly lower profit and revenue for the year and signalling that 2023 will be worse.
- Then the semiconductor manufacturers announced a glut in inventories and are taking steps to cut production and scale back on plans to build out capacity to bring supply back in line with sinking demand… this after the mad chase for chips in 2021 and 2022…
- Used car retailer CarMax (KMX) announced declining sales (in units) for the quarter, citing low consumer confidence. Moreover, loan loss provisions more than doubled, signalling weakening consumer demand due to inflationary pressure and higher financing rates.
Yet, inflation is still higher than interest rates… not an incentive to save for most people. Either inflation must come down or interest rates have to go up further. Or both. And probably both.
One two punch of inflation and interest rates, a recipe for Bear markets…
Now that they are taking the punch bowl away and the party is over, what happens next?
For whatever reason, the stock market seems to always precede economic reality:
- FedEx stock price is already down from a high of $319.90 reached on May 27th, 2021, to around $200 the day it announced the bad news. Since then, it went down another 25% to $150.
- Micron (MU) reached a high of $98.45 on January 5th, 2022, and is trading at $50.00 today*. Nvidia (NVDA), the other semiconductor giant, reached a peak of $346.47 on November 22, 2021, and corrected 65% to trade at $121 today*.
- As for CarMax, the stock price has been cut by more than half, dropping from a high of $156 on November 8, 2021, to today’s* $66.
- Poshmark (POSH), a social commerce marketplace, went public at US$42 in January 2022, started trading at over $100, and dove from the high to less than $10 in June 2022. The company just agreed to sell itself to the Korean company Naver (OTCPK:NHNCF) for $17.90 or less than 43% of the price it was sold to the public 9 months ago. We have to presume it was the company’s only chance for survival.
|*As of September 30th, 2022|
These are profitable companies (except for Poshmark). Imagine the ones that have been losing money for the last few years. In our previous quarterly letter, we call them “Zombie” companies. These companies managed to go public by way of Initial Public Offerings ((IPOs)), raising capital with the help of investment bankers and their sales teams. Their business models are, at best, dubious but they tie up a lot of human capital and they have money to pay their employees – shareholder’s money.
These names come to mind: Lightspeed (LSPD), Dialogue Health (CARE:CA), GoodFood (FOOD:CA), Beyond Meat (BYND), and Peloton (PTON) just to name a few.
Until some of these names improve their business models, restructure, or disappear, this bear market still has some time to run.
We also mention that before the bear market is over, we could witness some sort of credit event. Credit Suisse (CS) could be one of them. It is almost unthinkable that a Swiss giant in finance can manage to destroy itself through speculative and dumb decisions/acquisitions made by incompetent management throughout the 90s and the 2000s. Shareholders paid a hefty price, having witnessed a stock price of CHF 65 in 2007 diving toward today’s CHF 4. Then again, anything can happen in finance, especially when stupidity is compounded by overLeverage and ilLiquidity, the same L squared we mentioned in the last letter.
As we are on the topic of financial institutions, we believe that American and Canadian banks are very solid companies. Regulations have helped them strengthen their balance sheet since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-2009. If there is a weak spot in the financial system today, it would be in “Shadow Banking”, i.e., the unregulated financial institutions in the system. In a convoluted way, our banks partly finance these unregulated entities through corporate loans and bond investments. That would include all types of lenders from the “loan Sharks”, and “Buy Now Pay Later” to “crypto lending” etc.
As this bear market progresses, we can only think about what Buffett said in one of his letters: “it is only when the tide is out that we know who is swimming naked”.
Many of you have asked the question: Why not sell, stay on the sideline, and get back in when it is opportune?
Alas, we wish we were that good at timing the ins and outs… and able to avoid the friction of taxes, trading spreads and commissions, etc., especially the capital gain taxes accumulated over the good years…
We are convinced that compounding is the magic in accumulating wealth, especially compounding with other people’s money. Simplistically, every winning position in your portfolio has accumulated a liability that is called capital gain tax (and in the case of an RRSP, a deferred income tax). However, the government only collects when you sell it (or withdraw funds in the case of RRSP).
Otherwise, it is like a loan to you, interest-free and as long as you want (i.e., as long as you don’t sell your position, the loan works for you free of charge). Thus, the longer you keep a good investment, the more compounding benefits come to you through this interest-free loan from the government. This is the main reason why money compounds much faster inside an RRSP than outside. This is also the reason for having a TFSA.
On Ukraine and Russia…
We have a tough time seeing a way out if Putin stays in power… it will be a long, protracted and painful process…
On energy transition and consumption…
Here are a few thought-provoking anecdotes:
- According to Bloomberg research, over USD $3 trillion has been invested in renewable energy in the last 10 years. Yet, today’s energy consumption is still 80% supplied by fossil fuels, little changed from 10 years ago…
- And had we invested USD $3 trillion in research for better ways to contain nuclear waste, would we have found a more efficient way to renewables?
- While most companies have a “plan” to reduce fossil fuel use, and many countries see Carbon “0” as a reality within 30 years, there is little that shows us how these targets and goals can be realistically achieved. The costs are not being measured credibly.
- While extreme weather is a reality, what will all Electric Vehicle drivers do if they must evacuate, and the power grid is down? Are we supposed to have 2 cars? Or a spare battery for the car battery? What would replace the 10-gallon red gas can?
We certainly do not have answers to these existential questions. What we can do at Claret is try our best to manage your savings prudently and responsibly and provide you with a reasonable return over time, by investing in companies with accurate business models that are well-run, have great prospects and generate positive cash flows for the foreseeable future.
Thank you for your confidence.
Alain D. Chung, CFA
Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
This article was written by
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Comments (3) | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=c1d1860e58c4958b08f18260cf157961041abad4ab8033c99e0150f467ad1b7e | FBCG Is Showing Cracks | Fidelity Blue Chip Growth ETF's top 5 holdings account for 33% of the portfolio. See why we don't see FBCG as terribly exciting at this time. | 2022-10-27T17:58:10 | SeekingAlpha | FBCG Is Showing Cracks
Summary
- We've been wary about the lag between consumer pessimism and corporate pessimism, where corporates weren't getting the memo.
- We called out major corporations like Google and Microsoft saying that the last earnings season, which was still strong, may be the last before an evident recession.
- It seems that we were right and corporate spending is taking a hit, even among America's most darling stocks, which depend heavily on continued growth for their prices.
- Substantial weighting towards Google, Apple and Microsoft should hurt FBCG, not to mention Nvidia which ultimately is getting hit by the crypto crash.
- An inflation peak could swiftly save this ETF.
- Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of The Value Lab get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More »
The Fidelity Blue Chip Growth ETF (BATS:FBCG) is a US growth ETF with substantial weighting towards the American megacaps. 33% of the portfolio is accounted for by the top 5 holdings. Here we give our macro comment concerning trends in corporate spending, which have only just now started to decline broadly in the economy with a sign from some of the major advertising-exposed players, as well as some notes on consumer spending in China and crypto, all of which are trends that are going to affect much of this ETF as well as the economy broadly, with crypto being the least impactful of the factors. Whether this is the time to buy FBCG is a different matter - it depends on inflation's response to the current interest rate regime.
FBCG Breakdown
Let's have a quick look at the FBCG major holdings. The top 5 holdings that account for 33% of the portfolio are Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Nvidia (NVDA).
All of these stocks are staples of value-weighted ETFs, with their large market caps commanding high proportions of value-weighted ETFs that are already skewed towards tech and therefore growth. Almost all of them had very strong earnings seasons in late July/August despite the fact that rates had already risen substantially from the beginning of the year by then, and inflation had been taking their tolls on consumer budgets. At that point there was signs of consumer confidence declines but no declines were happening in businesses that faced enterprises. The issue of declining corporate spending in these major holdings is beginning to appear now, but also other factors that threaten their do-no-wrong status that justifies their high multiples and continued runways for growth despite signs that the economy is dipping.
Important Factors
Google recently reported earnings and pressures have become evident as more companies that sell ads compete for tightening ad budgets. While growth still continues, valuations of the top blue-chip growers are on stilts that can easily be kicked from under them by missed expectations, since horizons are so long for companies' whose fortunes seem certain. Microsoft also didn't see performance come as strongly from Azure. Amazon faces both consumers and producers, and was penalised by markets as a result. While a falling number of consumer sales would come out of the commission that Amazon takes on sales to any vendor on its platform (the marketplace subscription is probably solid unless vendors disappear), the AWS revenues were not able to help the company beat expectations in its latest earnings, following suit slightly with Azure. Markets penalised Amazon even harder due to the AWS disappointment, a segment that was regarded as an assured source of success.
In other words, we saw pass through of consumer spending declines into corporate spending and with consumer spending still affected, these decelerations may continue for the next quarters. Indeed, the general economic picture is not great even for the US, where current account improvements thanks to energy export is helping its finances and therefore the dollar, but consumer spending is distinctly softening.
In the case of Nvidia, the crypto crash has really not helped some of its retail sales that were going into crypto, as we predicted more than a year ago was a risk factor. Moreover, building cycles for new PCs have slowed due to supply chain woes still being digested in retail semiconductor and affecting its videogame markets. There, a disappearance of the casual gamer with the reopening may have created a hole in the market too, and this could be contributing in part to the general bloat we are seeing in semiconductor inventories, which went from being in shortage to suddenly in a glut. The worsening outlook for semiconductors confirmed by reports from heavily exposed economies like Taiwan raise questions about a lot of tech exposures that supply semiconductors or supply that industry.
Apple which isn't exactly a semiconductor company but a consumer staple company at this point, is still contributing to the electronics glut as well as their revise downwards their production plans in China on less than stellar initial reception for the iPhone 14 due to persisting lockdowns in China and bad economic outlook there, where it's following up in India more quickly than usual to keep momentum. China, which commands a lot of global wallet share, growth stock or not, is really on the decline. Apple and other companies are beginning to onshore activity from there, and this could trap China into middle-income status or send it into decline and deleveraging. China's worsening position in apart due to constant lockdowns but also less trust by West-destined supply chains is going to be a big problem global companies that very often depend in large part on the Chinese wallet.
While 50% of the FBCG is in technology, the next 17% is in retail trade, and with the consumer spending declines having been evident from last quarters and only reinforced by spending declines and continued rate hikes in the meantime, these stocks aren't particularly well positioned either.
Bottom Line
A recession affects the whole economy, but FBCG is exposed to American growth stocks which is a market that value growth higher than no other, and therefore those stocks depend a lot on expectations. In some cases, even the crypto declines will matter for business fundamentals, but in most cases, declines in consumer spending will impact fundamentals even of enterprise facing businesses that have now started to feel the burn. Moreover, China's economic woes, largely self-inflicted and liable to fester due to high leverage in the housing markets there, are going to affect a lot of tech companies in particular, especially the biggest ones that have used China as their latest growth markets, as their wallet share declines.
Consumer confidence has been lower for a while now, essentially showing itself last quarter. The depression in corporate spending has only just started, and could go on for another couple of quarters in all likelihood, even if inflation peaks in the meantime.
However, if inflation peaks as supply chains loosen up and bottlenecks like logistics see some easing, then markets will anticipate the Fed pivot and will jump regardless. A return to form will mean an even stronger reversion for the stocks in FBCG which has these higher Beta elements. That could save this ETF. However, unless you want to speculate on peak inflation, this ETF is not terribly exciting.
Thanks to our global coverage we've ramped up our global macro commentary on our marketplace service here on Seeking Alpha, The Value Lab. We focus on long-only value ideas, where we try to find international mispriced equities and target a portfolio yield of about 4%. We've done really well for ourselves over the last 5 years, but it took getting our hands dirty in international markets. If you are a value-investor, serious about protecting your wealth, us at the Value Lab might be of inspiration. Give our no-strings-attached free trial a try to see if it's for you.
This article was written by
Formerly Bocconi's Valkyrie Trading Society, seeks to provide a consistent and honest voice through this blog and our Marketplace Service, the Value Lab, with a focus on high conviction and obscure developed market ideas.
DISCLOSURE: All of our articles and communications, including on the Value Lab, are only opinions and should not be treated as investment advice. We are not investment advisors. Consult an investment professional and take care to do your own due diligence.
DISCLOSURE: Some of Valkyrie's former and/or current members also have contributed individually or through shared accounts on Seeking Alpha. Currently: Guney Kaya contributes on his own now, and members have contributed on Mare Evidence Lab.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Comments (2) | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=1dc92129a140247cee9443547a82fe8de0144977e5158bb91129f5577e6796a2 | Will Facebook Spending Spree On Metaverse Boost Arista, Nvidia, Ciena? | Facebook-parent Meta Platforms' spending spree to build the "metaverse" could provide upside for makers of advanced technology products. | 2022-10-27T13:35:03 | Yahoo | Will Facebook Spending Spree On Metaverse Boost Arista, Nvidia, Ciena?
Facebook-parent Meta Platforms' spending spree to build the "metaverse" could provide upside for makers of advanced technology products.
Facebook-parent Meta Platforms' spending spree to build the "metaverse" could provide upside for makers of advanced technology products.
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Dubbed the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett is renowned for his simple and frugal lifestyle. Despite being the sixth richest person globally, with a net worth estimated at $117.9 billion, Buffett continues to live in the same modest home in Omaha that he purchased in 1958 for just $31,500. Adjusted for inflation, that amount today would be approximately $328,990.80, a mere 0.000279% of his total net worth. Buffett has consistently ranked the purchase of his home as the third-best investment he ha
As a pandemic-inspired boom ends, entrepreneurs and giant corporations alike are counting on customers to keep accumulating more stuff than they can squeeze into their homes. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=cd0f9ebb9f676fb9119581e98ccef4283365b5c35fe0c80cd26dfc171f19bba4 | Why Nvidia Stock Edged Higher Today | Investors were optimistic about Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) today, likely after Meta Platforms said on its recent quarterly-earnings call that it is increasing its capital expenditures on artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, which could benefit Nvidia. While Meta's recent quarterly results weighted down on its stock, management's comments about investing in AI data centers helped give Nvidia's shares a boost today. For 2023, we expect capital expenditures to be in the range between $34 billion to $39 billion, driven by our investments in data centers, servers, and network infrastructure. | 2022-10-27T12:28:00 | Yahoo | Why Nvidia Stock Edged Higher Today
Investors were optimistic about Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) today, likely after Meta Platforms said on its recent quarterly-earnings call that it is increasing its capital expenditures on artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, which could benefit Nvidia. While Meta's recent quarterly results weighted down on its stock, management's comments about investing in AI data centers helped give Nvidia's shares a boost today. For 2023, we expect capital expenditures to be in the range between $34 billion to $39 billion, driven by our investments in data centers, servers, and network infrastructure. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=e77a054d49363acfb1e88b258cf3c96ad68a678123570b2d1e40c1fdde7d1caa | ASML Holding: The Gold Standard For Semiconductors | ASML is the only producer of EUV machines, which are critical for semiconductor innovation and survival. Click here to read more. | 2022-10-27T09:05:38 | SeekingAlpha | ASML Holding: The Gold Standard For Semiconductors
Summary
- ASML Holding N.V. is the only producer of EUV machines, which are critical for semiconductor innovation and survival.
- ASML deserves a premium with such a deep and wide moat - its stock is relatively cheap at this price.
- ASML's large pipeline and back orders don't predict a demand shrinkage.
- The cyclical slowdown in chip revenue growth after the Covid bump and trade tensions between the U.S. and China hasn't affected ASML.
- The current strength of the dollar, which is hurting Euro-based revenues and earnings this year, should be a tailwind for ASML going forward.
What is so Special About ASML?
ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:ASML) is the gold standard when it comes to semiconductor lithography manufacturing equipment.
Lithography uses light projection to shrink patterns onto photo sensitive wafers, which are then stacked layer by layer to create an integrated circuit. Lithography is the key to creating more powerful, faster and energy efficient chips.
ASML is the only manufacturer making EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) machines. Much of the technology innovation or advances in chip making would not be possible without EUVs. For example, over the last decade, semiconductors have moved from a 17 nm (NanoMeter) standard to a 3 nm standard by what ASML calls affordable scaling, the ability to make transistors more energy efficient, by packing them on smaller wafers. EUV machines use a special light source with a wavelength of only 13.5 nm, while DUV (Deep Ultraviolet) machines use upwards of 193 nm, which is a wavelength of almost 15 times.
Since chips can have 40 to over 150 layers, EUVs are vital for the complex 150 layers, while the industry's workhorses DUVs take care of the less critical layers with larger features. The key to success is affordable scaling, the ability to make transistors more energy efficient.
EUV strengths are well detailed in two excellent articles by Growth and Value Trading and Gregory Shiskov.
To summarize:
- ASML has spent more than €6Bn in R&D and close to 2 decades building EUV.
- Amongst its competitors, Canon never caught up and according to Tech Monitor, Nikon chose the wrong process.
- The complexity of more than 100,000 components and time to build the machines makes it difficult for new entrants to penetrate this market -- customers can't wait.
- ASML is fully vertically integrated -- making it difficult for competitors to get access to critical components and technology to create competing machines.
ASML's Premium is Justified
I analyzed ASML's 10-year prices and forward P/E ratios - is the premium justified, why are we paying 27X earnings and 8X sales? Between 2014 and 2020, P/E's ranged between 24 and 40, before rising on stimulus-induced zero interest rates from April 2020 to a peak of 58 in late 2021, when the S&P itself peaked at 4,818 -- more than 21X forward earnings.
For a company of ASML's caliber with an almost monopolistic position in a vital and growing industry, the premiums are more than justified and not out of whack with its historical valuation of 24-40X earnings. Looking at ASML's 10 year chart, we're getting a good deal. Of course, the 58X earnings is way out of whack, but a P/E of 27 is a very attractive entry point for ASML given its expected growth of over 25% in the next 3 years. As and when interest rates stabilize, multiples will also move in step.
I also compared ASML with a handful of other innovative, fast-growing leaders in their respective industries to see how it stacks up and emphasize that quality stocks usually get a premium.
ASML is cheaper than Nvidia (NVDA) another innovative leader whose strengths are highlighted by Seeking Alpha contributors including Rethink Technology, Julian Lin, and myself. Nvidia has several moats and produces best in its class, top of the line products - it is way ahead of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel (INTC) and is also slated to grow rapidly over the next 3-5 years. ASML has a cheaper P/E of 27 to Nvidia's 32, a cheaper P/S ratio at 7.8 compared to 9.5, but a slightly higher PEG at 0.98 to 0.85 - mostly because Nvidia is coming off a really disastrous year and is going to grow much faster on a smaller base.
I also added three non-industry players: Tesla (TSLA), Adobe, Inc (ADBE), and Salesforce Inc. (CRM). These three companies made The Wall Street Journal's innovation list, have had huge sales and earnings growth in the past 5 years, and are still expected to grow in the next 5. This is to emphasize that industry leaders rarely come cheap.
ASML stands shoulder to shoulder with the mighty Tesla, beating it handily in the PEG sweepstakes at 1 to 1.49 (that's also because Tesla simply takes net profits of only 10% of revenues as compared to 25% for ASML). However, ASML loses out on a P/S basis 7.32 to 5.71, because of Tesla's amazing revenue growth, which dwarfs that of much-smaller ASML.
Adobe and Salesforce have both lost some luster, with future growth getting slower, but they're still industry leaders and innovative.
ASML trounces both on earnings multiples, its PEG is 0.98 compared to 1.84 and 1.45 to Adobe and Salesforce. On a sales multiple, ASML is the same as ADOBE, which shows that ASML is a lot cheaper than the slower growing ADBE. Importantly, the point is to demonstrate that other industry leaders also command a premium and ASML should too.
ASML's Strengths
ASML's Q3-2022 came in better than expected.
In his Q3 statement to shareholders ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink was emphatic that macroeconomic factors are not going to further impact growth.
"Our third-quarter net sales came in at €5.8 billion with a gross margin of 51.8% - above our guidance. There is uncertainty in the market due to a number of global macro-economic concerns including inflation, consumer confidence and the risk of a recession. While we are starting to see diverging demand dynamics per market segment, the overall demand for our systems continues to be strong. We are continuing to assess and follow the new US export control regulations. Based on our initial assessment, the new restrictions do not amend the rules governing lithography equipment shipped by ASML out of the Netherlands and we expect the direct impact on ASML's overall 2023 shipment plan to be limited."
Record Bookings - At the end of Q3-2022, ASML had record bookings of €8.9Bn, a massive jump over €6.2Bn in Q3-2021.
EUV Sales Dominate - 67% of its sales are the more expensive EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) machines as compared to 33% of DUV (Deep Ultraviolet). EUV's have also grown faster in the past five years and should continue to lead growth for the next decade.
Recurring Revenues - About 28% of ASML's revenues come from installed base management, which is recurring, sustainable and carries better margins.
Segment Revenues
ASML's end use is about 70% towards logic and 30% to memory.
Constant Currency Growth - Due to COVID, ASML grew revenues at 18% and 33% in 2020 and 2021, faster than its long term average of 15%. Demand for capital equipment, like for most sectors of technology and semiconductors got pulled forward as foundries, IDM's and chip designers rushed forward to meet demand and produce extra to surmount supply chain disruptions. For 2022, ASML should grow revenues by 12% in Euros to 21Bn. However, converting into U.S. Dollars at $21.8Bn, ASML suffers disproportionately, eking out a meager 3% gain, compared to $21.12Bn in sales last year. If you assumed Dollar/Euro parity, at $20.9Bn, ASML would look like it lost revenue! In constant currency, ASML is clearly showing no signs of demand fatigue or growth slowdown, and has and should continue to navigate in a much tougher environment. Furthermore, it should also get some tailwinds if interest rates stop rising and the dollar drops against the Euro.
Challenges
Slowdown in semiconductor demand
Q3-22 earnings so far don't augur too well for ASML and pose challenges.
Three big end-users of semiconductors are hurting. Microsoft (MSFT) had its slowest revenue growth in its cloud business, growing only 35% down from its usual mid to high forties growth and warned of sluggish growth in Q4 as well. Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) grew its cloud business only 37%, also slower compared to previous years. Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) Q3 quarterly revenue came in 4% lower, the second such quarterly decline in a row. While Meta is not in data center or cloud, the metaverse initiative, which was supposed to be a big user of semis with supposed outlays of $15Bn, is off to a very weak start and is going to face a slowdown with such weak company-wide results.
Within the semi space, there have been several warnings, and I'll highlight a few. Both are ASML's clients. South Korea's SK Hynix, Inc. expects to reduce Capex by 50% in 2023. In its press release, it cited "sluggish demand for DRAM and NAND products amid a worsening macroeconomic environment worldwide. The deterioration occurred as the shipments of PCs and smartphone manufacturers, which are major buyers of memory chips, have decreased." Worse, it expects to close down a plant. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), the world's largest pure play foundry, guided for a lower Capex of $36Bn for 2022, lower than earlier estimates of $40 to $44Bn.
Another major semi manufacturer Texas Instruments (TXN) guided to Q4-22 revenues of $4.4B to $4.8B, short of analysts' estimates of $4.94B in sales.
The China Sanctions
While ASML has rebuffed notions of a slowdown, it is important to note that it does sell about 15% to China while Taiwan and South Korea account for 71% of revenues. LAM Research (LRCX), which is ASML's peer, guided to a $2 to $2.5Bn revenue shortfall compared to estimates, citing China sanctions as the main cause.
Investment Case
I own ASML and recommend it a Buy at this price for the following reasons.
- It is the only manufacturer of EUV's in the world - a deep and wide moat.
- Semiconductors is a critical and growing industry.
- Capital Equipment has an outsize role in an industry dependent upon technological innovations.
- ASML has weathered the downturn in the semiconductor market well and has enough of a pipeline to continue growing.
- Most of the downturn is already reflected in its current price.
- The P/E of 27X is justified given that it has usually traded between a P/E of 24 and 40 and it is expected to grow earnings at 25%.
- Industry leaders and innovators typically have that premium and ASML is relative better priced.
This article was written by
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of ASML, NVDA, AMD, GOOG, MSFT, ADBE either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Comments (13) | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=dc56fcf0e563d7146f4e94cc743e657e13100df12ba45be93c6d05db339683c2 | Why a strong U.S. dollar might benefit crypto in the long term | A weekly look at the most important moves and news in crypto and what's on the horizon in digital assets. | 2022-10-27T08:23:00 | MarketWatch | Hello, welcome back to Distributed Ledger, our weekly crypto newsletter that reaches your inbox every Thursday. I’m Frances Yue, crypto reporter at MarketWatch. I’ll walk you through the latest and greatest in the digital asset world this week.
Find me on Twitter at @FrancesYue_ to send feedback, or tell us what you think we should cover. You can also reach me through email to share your personal stories with crypto.
Crypto in a snap
Bitcoin BTCUSD went up about 8% during the past seven days, and was trading at around $20,617 on Thursday, according to CoinDesk data. Ether ETHUSD surged over 20.6% over the seven-day stretch to around $1,548. Meme token Dogecoin DOGEUSD gained 28.8% while another dog-themed token, Shiba Inu SHIBUSD, rallied 10.2% from seven days ago.
Crypto Metrics
|Biggest Gainers||Price||%7-day return|
|Klaytn||$0.26||89.7%|
|Tokenize Xchange||$17.93||38.5%|
|Evmos||$2.17||36.4%|
|Dogecoin||$0.08||32.2%|
|Aptos||$9.21||28%|
|Source: CoinGecko as of Oct. 27|
|Biggest Decliners||Price||%7-day return|
|Maker||$921.91||-15.3%|
|Chain||$0.05||-14.4%|
|Axie Infinity||$9.2||-9.4%|
|BTSE Token||$3.52||-4.7%|
|Ethereum Name Service||$17.74||-4.4%|
|Source: CoinGecko as of Oct. 27|
The dollar is king?
It has been a volatile year for the global currency market, with the U.S. dollar rallying to its highest in 20 years against its major rivals.
Last month, the U.S. dollar DXY index rallied to as high as 114.8, the loftiest level since 2002, before it fell to about 110.4 on Thursday.
The Japanese yen USDJPY last week weakened against the dollar to 151.95 yen, its lowest level against dollar since July 1990, before it rebounded to about 146.25 yen Thursday, according to Dow Jones market data.
Earlier this month, the Chinese yuan fell to a 14-year low versus the dollar, before it rebounded to about 7.23 yuan Thursday.
The British pound hit a record low of $1.03 last month, before it recouped some losses and traded at around $1.16 on Thursday, while the euro has lost over 12% against the dollar so far this year.
A strong dollar has also hurt cryptocurrencies, with the majority of bitcoin trades happening against the greenback, as I’ve written here. “At the end of the day, you know, value fluctuation is always led by the dollar,” according to Eric Chen, chief executive and co-founder of Injective Labs.
However, some industry participants argued that in the long term, the high volatility in the foreign exchange market might benefit crypto.
“When I look at the really wild movements of traditional fiat currencies over the past year, I do think it speaks to the long term value of Bitcoin,” said Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management. “As the sort of wilding of the forex (foreign exchange) market accelerates, that’s a long term catalyst that makes Bitcoin more attractive as sort of a safety valve for investors in case things get really out of control, which looks not probable but possible at this point,” Hougan noted.
“Every time there’s kind of this volatility in currencies, especially in developing countries where people’s livelihood depends on it, I think the most important part to consider is that it reaffirms the value prop of Bitcoin as this unbiased, leaderless, and ownerless asset class,” Chen noted. “That being said, in the short term, people just buy the dollar,” according to Chen.
When a currency becomes too volatile, people might turn to not only bitcoin, but also stablecoins, or cryptocurrencies whose value are pegged with other fiat currencies, such as the U.S. dollar, as a store of value, noted Mark Connors, head of research at 3iQ. “I think that’s constructive for the entire ecosystem,” Connors said.
Low volatility
Bitcoin prices have a history of extreme swings, but the rolling 20-day volatility of the crypto has been lower than that of the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite since Oct. 17, according to Dow Jones Market data. Prior to that, the last time bitcoin’s volatility went lower than both of the stock indexes was in November 2018. Since bitcoin hit a 2022 low of about $17,601 in June, the crypto has been trading above that level and below $25,300.
The primary reason for the rangebound market is that “you have forces working against each other in the crypto market,” according to Bitwise’s Hougan.
The macroeconomic outlook has been gloomy, with persistent inflation in the U.S. and slowing growth of the global economy, while the crypto space has seen increasing institutional adoption, Hougan noted.
“You have a negative pull for macro and a positive pull of the crypto industry and they’re canceling each other out,” Hougan said.
“I think people are just in waiting mode to see, okay, is this close to the bottom or will it take another dive?” said Niclas Sandstrom, chief executive at Hilbert Capital.
Hougan said he expects bitcoin’s price to continue to trade in consolidation for the rest of this year, but “as we turn to 2023 and the macro environment normalizes. it’s going to create the foundation for the crypto spring that a lot of people are waiting for,” according to Hougan.
Crypto companies, funds
Shares of Coinbase Global Inc. COIN dipped 1.4% Thursday at around $72.72, while they were up 14.4% over the past five trading sessions. Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy Inc. MSTR shares slipped 0.4% Thursday to $271.74, while they were up 23% over the past five days.
Mining company Riot Blockchain Inc. RIOT shares lowered 1.1% to $6.98 Thursday, while they were up 25% over the past five days. Shares of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. MARA edged up 0.1% to $13.80, and up 26.5% over the past five days. Another miner, Ebang International Holdings Inc. EBON lost 1.8% to $0.30 on Thursday, contributing to a 4.5% loss over the past five days.
Overstock.com Inc. OSTK’s shares plunged 8% at $23.58. The shares traded 0.5% lower over the five-session period.
Shares of Block Inc. SQ, formerly known as Square, added 1.7% to $60.5 and were up 9.6% for the week. Tesla Inc. TSLA shares edged up 0.1% to 204.78%, up 8.5% over the past five days.
PayPal Holdings Inc. PYPL went down 0.7% to $88.01, up 3.8% over the five-session stretch. Nvidia Corp. NVDA shares gained 3% to $132.71, looking at a 8.8% gain for the past week.
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD shares went down 0.8% to $59.24 on Thursday, up 2.5% from five trading days ago.
Among crypto funds, ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF BITO declined 0.6% to $12.75 Thursday, while its Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF BITI rose 0.6% to $35.68. Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy ETF BTF went down 0.8% to $7.95, while VanEck Bitcoin Strategy ETF XBTF decreased 0.5% to $20.23.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust GBTC tanked 3% to $12.15.
Must Reads
- Institutional Investors Are Wading Into Volatile Crypto Markets: Fidelity (Barron’s)
- The Only Crypto Story You Need, by Matt Levine (Bloomberg)
- Removing Sanctions on Crypto Mixer Tornado Cash Won’t Be Easy (The Wall Street Journal)
- The surprising maturity of the crypto-rave crowd (The Economist) | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=7df23fd0448f6524092f52b25917fd86169b2d3009c43c1ccb633f7a07007c64 | We think Nvidia's data center business is poised for pretty attractive growth, says Wells Fargo's Rakers | Aaron Rakers, Wells Fargo managing director and equity analyst, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss which companies could benefit from Meta's massive spending on the metaverse, his thoughts on AMD and how Rakers would handicap the health of Meta. | 2022-10-27T06:57:06 | CNBC | Credit Cards
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https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=94dba3c37d684eb7c4225fdd517694bce385e541ec1086826d073192ff3e0308 | Meta spending slams Facebook stock, but here are the chip stocks that are benefiting | Data-center stocks buoyed an otherwise down chip sector Thursday, as shares of Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. cratered on torn-in-half profits and a... | 2022-10-27T06:52:00 | MarketWatch | Data-center stocks buoyed an otherwise down chip sector Thursday as shares of Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. cratered on torn-in-half profits and a hike in capital spending to fuel Mark Zuckerberg’s metaverse ambitions, prompting one analyst to ask if server chips can only go up now.
As shares of Meta dropped as much as 25% Thursday, shares of Nvidia Corp.
NVDA,
Late Wednesday, Meta reported that quarterly profit fell by more than 50% and added that it expects 2022 capital expenditure of $32 billion to $33 billion, compared with a previous range of $30 billion to $34 billion. In 2023, the company said, it expects capital expenditure in the range of $34 billion to $39 billion, “driven by our investments in data centers, servers, and network infrastructure.”
Meta
META,
Soon after Meta made that announcement, Jefferies analyst Mark Lipacis said in a note that “positive capex commentary from Alphabet
GOOGL,
Shares of AMD rallied as much as 5% and finished down 1.9%. Broadcom shares rose as much as 2%, and finished down 1.3%, and Marvell shares surged as much as 10% and finished up 3.4% Thursday. Intel Corp.
INTC,
Opinion: Facebook and Google grew into tech titans by ignoring Wall Street. Now it could lead to their downfall
Jefferies noted that Meta’s capital expenditure for 2023 alone charts a 12% year-over-year hike at midpoint, compared with the Wall Street consensus of $29 billion, or a 5% year-over-year decline.
“We sense investor caution around Nvidia’s datacenter business this quarter, but we expect all four [equipment providers] to discuss positive datacenter trends this earnings season,” Lipacis said, noting he was a buyer of Nvidia stock “in front of its earnings call,” scheduled on Nov. 17.
Other chip sector earnings: KLA Corp. posts beat-and-raise quarter like others in the chip-equipment sector as long-term goals underscored
From the perspective of the chip industry — which has gone from a two-year global chip shortage to a sudden glut in a matter of months as PC and consumer-electronics demand has dropped sharply, causing chip fabricators to pump the brakes on investments in new capacity — Lipacis questioned whether the glut will ever reach data-center sales, as many have feared.
“The most common comment we hear from investors on Nvidia is ‘the Datacenter Shoe has to Drop,'” Lipacis said, noting that his data shows that the shoe has already dropped and an uptick is on the horizon.
Read: Intel stock rises on earnings beat, plans for layoffs, billions in cost cuts planned
Lipacis explained that data-center sales from Nvidia, AMD and Intel combined declined to $10.5 billion in the second quarter from $12 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021 and that he is modeling another $10.5 billion quarter in the third.
“This looks consistent with the pattern since 2017 of 4-to-5 qtrs above trendline, followed by 2-to-3 qtrs of below trendline ‘digestion,’ i.e., it looks like the datacenter shoe has already dropped,” Lipacis said. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=6759affbfc402468a07e3a5157ef02528e19b2396daaa3db7a8fef909daafd47 | Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Gets a Boost on Meta Platforms Spending Plans | Meta Platform’s gloomy Q3 earnings report unexpectedly boosted its suppliers like Nvidia, thus sparking an uptick in NVDA stock. | 2022-10-27T05:33:00 | InvestorPlace | Like a football player about to get obliterated performing a lateral pass to a teammate, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) got the raw end of the action. However, Meta’s sacrificial act helped underscore the contrarian bullish narrative of semiconductor specialist Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA). With Meta unexpectedly revealing in its latest earnings disclosure its intention to boost capital expenditures in data centers, servers and network infrastructure, the announcement boosted NVDA stock.
According to Bloomberg, Meta’s third-quarter earnings report revealed that it projects “capital spending of $34 billion to $39 billion in 2023, up from $30 billion to $34 billion this year.” Despite challenges to its foray into the metaverse – essentially the next generation of internet connectivity – Meta remains committed to its drive of pushing digitally immersive experiences.
Wells Fargo analysts succinctly summarized Wall Street’s reaction. “Amidst increased question/concern that Meta would significantly reduce their forward capex guide in conjunction with third quarter results, tonight we got the absolute opposite,” market expert Aaron Rakers said in a report by the firm.
As well, Bloomberg emphasized:
“While Meta’s spending plans are a boon to its suppliers, it was received poorly by investors skeptical of the high costs associated with its strategic shift. The stock dropped 14% after the company projected weaker-than-expected sales in the current quarter.”
To be sure, NVDA stock gained more than 3% in the afternoon session. Rivals Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) and Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) gained about 1% and 4%, respectively.
NVDA Stock Takes a Necessary Win
Needless to say, it’s not prudent for Nvidia to wish Meta to continue pushing the capex needle beyond sustainability. Otherwise, the boost may represent a one-off situation and possibly lead to significant volatility down the road. Still, NVDA stock needed a win, and it will take it.
That said, Meta’s Q3 announcement embodies a strange circumstance as the focus centered on its partners, not Meta itself. “At the midpoint, guidance implies capex grows +75% year-over-year in 2022 and over 12% in fiscal 2023,” Raymond James analyst Simon Leopold said to clients in a research note. The analyst also expects upside for Arista Networks (NYSE:ANET) and Ciena (NYSE:CIEN).
“These (Meta) investments target data centers, servers, and network infrastructure with AI capacity expansion driving substantially all the capital expenditure growth in 2023,” Leopold added.
For NVDA stock, the underlying emphasis on artificial intelligence could help Nvidia rise above the rest. More than just a manufacturer of graphics processing units, Nvidia over the years invested heavily in deep learning and artificial intelligence solutions. Also, its architecture undergirds and partners with academic research on potential AI applications.
Nevertheless, the road may be rocky. Despite the Thursday uptick, NVDA stock currently trades around 56% below parity on a year-to-date basis.
On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=85b73f980d26499ac1ad9e9ba2a5325b648d418eaec49eeb2865ef0a169b97ba | Facebook used to be a Big Tech giant — now Meta isn't even in the top 20 most valuable U.S. companies | Meta shares are down more than 20% on Thursday, the second time this year they've collapsed after an earnings report. | 2022-10-27T05:26:35 | CNBC | Facebook used to be a Big Tech giant — now Meta isn't even in the top 20 most valuable U.S. companies
- Last year, Facebook was among the five most valuable U.S. companies, with a market cap over $1 trillion. Now the company is worth about $270 billion.
- Meta forecast a third straight quarter of revenue declines on Wednesday, leaving CEO Mark Zuckerberg to thank investors who are still on board for their patience.
- The company is no longer in the top 20 in terms of market cap in the U.S.
Sixteen months after Facebook crossed $1 trillion in market cap, joining an exclusive club consisting of Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon, its parent company Meta is worth less than Home Depot and barely more than Pfizer and Coca-Cola.
Far from Facebook's Big Tech days, Meta is no longer among the 20 most valuable U.S. companies after the stock sank 23% on Thursday. The company has shed 70% of its value this year and 74% since the stock peaked in September 2021, totaling over $730 billion in market cap lost. It's trading at its lowest since early 2016, when Barack Obama was still president.
The stunning collapse of Meta's share price is reminiscent of the dot-com bust days, but far bigger in terms of value erased from a single company. The slide began late last year as signs of a sputtering economy started to emerge, and accelerated in early 2022 after the company said Apple's privacy change to iOS would result in a $10 billion revenue hit this year.
Founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg has been unable to stop the bleeding and only seems to be making matters worse. Since changing the company name to Meta a year ago Friday, Zuckerberg has said its future is the metaverse, a virtual universe of work, play and education. But investors just see it as a multibillion-dollar money pit, while the core advertising business shrinks — Facebook is forecasting a third consecutive drop in revenue for the fourth quarter.
A somewhat perplexed Zuckerberg acknowledged on Wednesday's earnings call that "there are a lot of things going on right now in the business and in the world."
"There's macroeconomic issues, there's a lot of competition, there's ads challenges especially coming from Apple, and then there's some of the longer-term things that we're taking on expenses because we believe that they're going to provide greater returns over time," Zuckerberg said. "I appreciate the patience and I think that those who are patient and invest with us will be rewarded."
Meta now trades for just three times revenue, less than one-third of its five-year average. It's now worth half as much as Berkshire Hathaway and has a smaller market cap than companies including UnitedHealth, Chevron, Eli Lilly, Procter & Gamble, Bank of America and AbbVie.
The other four tech companies that propelled past the trillion-dollar mark are all still there and remain the four most valuable U.S. businesses, even though they've taken big hits this year as well alongside the rest of the market.
Within tech, the other two companies Meta has fallen behind are Tesla and Nvidia. Next on the list would be Oracle, which is currently valued at just over $200 billion, or $70 billion below Meta. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=ef7f9c2a8fa7e19430567206d17a1f3e27c13cb89c6010cbd066447031bb0421 | AMD Q3: Don't Lose Your Money | AMD is scheduled to release its Q3 results after market close on November 1. Find out why I remain bullish on the AMD stock. | 2022-10-27T05:22:45 | SeekingAlpha | AMD Q3: Don't Lose Your Money
Summary
- AMD is scheduled to release its Q3 results after market close on November 1.
- Analysts are extremely divided on the chipmaker's Q4 guidance, with low and high estimates differing by nearly 50%.
- This might be an opportune time for long-term investors to scoop AMD's shares amidst the ensuing market chaos.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) is scheduled to host its Q3 earnings call after market close this Tuesday, November 1. Although the company has already released a dismal set of preliminary Q3 numbers, there’s still a lot of uncertainty about the extent of its sales slump. So, in addition to tracking its headline financial figures, investors may also want to monitor its purchase commitments, guidance for the next quarter or two and its management's comments about their production trends amidst a recessionary environment. These items will better highlight where AMD and its shares may be headed next. Let’s take a closer look at it all.
The Preliminary Numbers
For the uninitiated, AMD pre-released its Q3 financials earlier this month on October 6. Its top brass was forecasting revenue of $6.7 billion for the said quarter, but the actual figure turned out to be $5.6 billion. Its margins, too, took a hit. Its management had guided for non-GAAP gross margins of 54% in their prior earnings report, but the actual figure is close to 50%.
The company noted in its press release that dropping average selling prices (or ASPs) resulted in a $160 million worth of a one-time inventory charge. Additionally, its sluggish unit shipments during the quarter resulted in a ”significant inventory correction.” To make matters worse, there’s ambiguity about the extent of its sales slowdown and no telling when the chipmaker will resume its growth trajectory. This uncertainty, in turn, fueled fear, uncertainty and doubt amongst the investment community and resulted in a sharp selloff in AMD shares shortly after.
Bear in mind that these are not final figures. As AMD closes its quarter and its accounting team makes final adjustments, I contend that the final numbers will fluctuate by up to 2% in either direction, for better or worse. But having said that, there’s still a lot to look out for, when the company releases its earnings report this Tuesday.
Key Items to Watch
For starters, look for AMD’s purchase commitments in its 10Q filing. This is basically the dollar value of all the cancellable and non-cancellable orders that AMD has committed to its third-party vendors.
If the chipmaker’s sales slump is accelerating, for whatever reasons there might be, then its management might look to cancel or defer some of its cancellable orders in order to avoid building excess inventory and creating a supply glut along the way. On the other hand, if its sales slump is short-lived, then the company might not tinker too much with its orders and they’re likely to build inventory to capitalize on consumer demand resumption.
There are already rumors of AMD cutting back on production in light of subdued consumer demand, but there hasn’t been any official confirmation for the same. So, tracking this purchase commitments figure will highlight AMD management’s view about the longevity of this sales downturn and indicate the extent of financial risk that they are undertaking while navigating this recessionary macroenvironment.
We must also look for management’s revenue and margin guidance for Q4 FY22 and possibly also for Q1 FY23. The chipmaker’s highly anticipated 7000-series CPU line-up became commercially available in the last week of September, which should, in theory, bring along ASP gains and margin expansion. The chipmaker’s top brass would have nearly one month of sales data to extrapolate their guidance for at least the next quarter. It’d be a cherry on the cake if the company guides for strong unit shipment growth as well, but I feel it’s unlikely considering the bleak macroeconomic environment and strained consumer budgets.
There is one area in particular where the company might outperform, though. Last month, U.S. regulators banned the exports of specific Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD-branded datacenter GPUs to China in order to prevent misuse by the Chinese military. This is a blow to Chinese datacenter operators as it creates a vacuum of enterprise-grade GPUs in the country, while domestic players are still several years away from catching up in terms of compute performance. So, until this ban comes into full effect, these frantic buyers from China might be looking to buy all the available enterprise-grade GPUs from Nvidia and AMD that are available in the market, regardless of their prevailing prices.
Nvidia is said to be already prioritizing the production of a specific data center GPU, and AMD might very well do the same, in order to tap this pocket of growth. So, look for AMD management’s data center revenue guidance in particular. I think it’s needless to say, but if the chipmaker is able to tap this opportunity, then it’s likely to issue an upbeat datacenter revenue guidance for Q4 FY22 and Q1 FY23.
Interestingly, the analyst community is extremely divided when it comes to AMD’s near-term prospects. Where some analysts are forecasting the chipmaker’s Q4 revenue guidance to be $4.79 billion, others are more bullish with a $7.06 billion estimate. This equates to a variation of a whopping 47% between low and high Q4 revenue estimates.
Preparing for Earnings
AMD may have reported its preliminary Q3 results, but there’s a lot of uncertainty about how severe its sales slump really is. This is particularly evident in widely contrasting analyst estimates. So, investors may want to keep a close eye on the company’s revenue and margin guidance, its purchase commitments, and its management’s comments pertaining to their production trends. These items should provide some clarity about what to expect from the chipmaker in near future and are likely to influence where its shares head next.
As far as valuations are concerned, AMD’s shares are trading at a significant discount compared to many of the other rapidly growing stocks in the semiconductor space. This suggests that most of the bad news relating to its sales slump is already priced into the stock at current levels. So, investors with a multi-year time horizon, who have the appetite for portfolio drawdowns and heightened volatility, may want to accumulate the chipmaker’s shares on potential price corrections. I, for one, remain bullish on the stock as detailed here and here. Good Luck!
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Comments (23)
The only reason AMD is "up" is including Xilinx and Pensando revenues as if those companies didn't exist or have revenues until they were merged into AMD earlier this year. The internals looking at AMD's legacy businesses show the strong growth is gone, and in the PC space has collapsed.AMD's client segment was down 53% QoQ and 40% YoY. Intel's was up 6% QoQ and down 17% YoY. Even with that performance Gelsinger said they're still under-shipping end demand to reduce inventories at their customers. Gelsinger said with regards to PC share that they are "now showing meaningful improvement," meaning Intel gained share, and that's easy to see from the above numbers.Looking at Q4, all signs indicate Zen 4 sales are very poor. What's holding up AMD sales are Zen 3 Ryzens, but those are heavily discounted with Zen 4 out, and Intel's Raptor Lake now launched and far superior to Zen 3 in performance.
How it is very strong? The 13.9% server share after 5 years is very strong? Just look at the 8% up QoQ in data center. Where is that growth coming from? Pensando was private so we don't know what its growth was prior to the acquisition, but the market that it's in is growing strongly from a small base. We do know that Xilinx's growth was much higher than AMD's when it was acquired. There's no reason to believe that AMD's legacy dclarata center business (EPYC) is growing. It's likely down QoQ.As for Zen 4, it's overpriced both for the processors and the platform cost. It's also being beaten across the board in performance save for a subset of heavily threaded workloads where the 7950X narrowly outperforms the Core i9-13900K. In the mid-range the Core i5-13600K easily beats the comparable Ryzens. You make the claim "AMD is still going to show that while growth has slowed, it hasn't gone into reverse the way Intel has" which clearly isn't the case. AMD's numbers vs Intel's as I showed in the prior comment clearly support Intel is gaining significant PC share. Stepping back the inflection point in PC competitiveness occurred when Alder Lake's first skus on Intel 7 were released in Nov 2021. Raptor Lake improves on that, and Intel just said in the conf call that the production stepping of Meteor Lake tapes out this quarter. Definitely in the PC space everything is very negative for AMD. They'll transition to Zen 5 until late 2024, and it will still be on TSMC's 5nm node, just as the current Zen 4 is.
If you already have a position in AMD that is profitable then it may be a good time to sell covered calls. Long term I like AMD as an investment but expect more downside after earnings. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=9eb1fe87a8303fd7cc6cb7b6a031188cc6ade89a449bfa6014ac4e0a5d10a134 | Most large cryptocurrencies decrease on Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash drops | Most of the largest cryptocurrencies were down during morning trading on Thursday, with Bitcoin seeing the biggest move, dropping 1.28% to $20,488.92. Six... | 2022-10-27T03:00:00 | MarketWatch | Most of the largest cryptocurrencies were down during morning trading on Thursday, with Bitcoin
BTCUSD,
-0.01%
seeing the biggest move, dropping 1.28% to $20,488.92.
Six additional currencies posted drops Thursday. Bitcoin Cash
BCHUSD,
-1.39%
dropped 1.16% to $113.60, and Litecoin
LTCUSD,
-0.21%
shed 1.11% to $55.47.
Cardano
ADAUSD,
-0.09%
sank 1.11% to 40 cents, while Ethereum
ETHUSD,
-0.24%
inched down 0.73% to $1,543.10. Polkadot
DOTUSD,
+0.67%
slid 0.61% to $6.42.
Ripple
XRPUSD,
+0.41%,
which posted the smallest decrease, slid 0.19% to 47 cents
On the other hand, two cryptos posted increases, with Dogecoin
DOGEUSD,
-1.05%
seeing the largest rise at 6.38% to 8 cents. Uniswap
UNIUSD,
-0.36%
rallied 3.19% to $6.92.
In crypto-related company news, shares of Coinbase Global Inc.
COIN,
-3.79%
dropped 2.38% to $72.05, while MicroStrategy Inc.
MSTR,
-3.32%
shed 1.78% to $267.87. Riot Blockchain Inc.
RIOT,
-3.93%
shares declined 1.84% to $6.93, and shares of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc.
MARA,
-4.41%
slipped 0.87% to $13.67.
Overstock.com Inc.
OSTK,
-6.52%
dropped 3.39% to $24.76, while Block Inc.
SQ,
-13.64%
climbed 0.96% to $60.04 and Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
-2.11%
sank 0.05% to $224.52.
PayPal Holdings Inc.
PYPL,
-2.23%
slid 0.70% to $87.93, and Ebang International Holdings Inc. Cl A
EBON,
-2.53%
shares dropped 1.52% to 31 cents. NVIDIA Corp.
NVDA,
+0.37%
increased 2.10% to $131.67, and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
AMD,
+2.36%
rallied 0.70% to $60.43.
In the fund space, blockchain-focused Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF
BLOK,
-1.86%
dropped 1.02% to $19.37. The Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF
BITQ,
-4.08%,
which is focused on pure-play crypto companies, declined 4.05% to $6.39. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust
GBTC,
which tracks the Bitcoin market price, slipped 0.40% to $12.47.
Editor's Note: This story, which tracks nine of the top cryptocurrencies and excludes stable coins, was auto-generated by Automated Insights, an automation technology provider, using data from Dow Jones, FactSet and Kraken. See our market data terms of use. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=44091ddf8bc01c1473fac587c836e6b904c8ed616fadaa46a56327daf778a713 | Wall Street Analysts Are Bullish on Top Technology Picks | There’s a lot to be optimistic about in the Technology sector as 3 analysts just weighed in on Boeing (<span class='tr-stock-ticker' style='color:blue; font-w... | 2022-10-27T01:29:00 | TipRanks | There’s a lot to be optimistic about in the Technology sector as 3 analysts just weighed in on Boeing (BA – Research Report), Nvidia (NVDA – Research Report) and Doximity (DOCS – Research Report) with bullish sentiments.
Boeing (BA)
Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu maintained a Buy rating on Boeing yesterday and set a price target of $225.00. The company’s shares closed last Wednesday at $133.79.
According to TipRanks.com, Kahyaoglu is a 4-star analyst with an average return of
Currently, the analyst consensus on Boeing is a Moderate Buy with an average price target of $195.46, implying a 46.1% upside from current levels. In a report issued on October 12, Susquehanna also maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a $192.00 price target.
See the top stocks recommended by analysts >>
Nvidia (NVDA)
Jefferies analyst Mark Lipacis maintained a Buy rating on Nvidia yesterday and set a price target of $225.00. The company’s shares closed last Wednesday at $128.96, close to its 52-week low of $108.13.
According to TipRanks.com, Lipacis is a top 25 analyst with an average return of
Nvidia has an analyst consensus of Moderate Buy, with a price target consensus of $195.83, implying a 51.9% upside from current levels. In a report issued on October 11, Citigroup also maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a $210.00 price target.
Doximity (DOCS)
Jefferies analyst Glen Santangelo maintained a Buy rating on Doximity today and set a price target of $44.00. The company’s shares closed last Wednesday at $26.24, close to its 52-week low of $23.73.
According to TipRanks.com, Santangelo is a 5-star analyst with an average return of
Currently, the analyst consensus on Doximity is a Moderate Buy with an average price target of $41.00, which is a 56.3% upside from current levels. In a report issued on October 12, Raymond James also maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a $40.00 price target.
TipRanks has tracked 36,000 company insiders and found that a few of them are better than others when it comes to timing their transactions. See which 3 stocks are most likely to make moves following their insider activities.
Read More on BA:
- Analysts Are Bullish on Top Consumer Goods Stocks: Amazon (AMZN), Bj’s Wholesale Club Holdings (BJ)
- Performance Shipping Inc. Announces a US$30,000 Per Day Time Charter Contract for About 24 Months
- 22nd Century Group (Nasdaq: XXII) to Announce Third Quarter 2022 Results on November 8, 2022
- Unilever (NYSE: UL) Raises Prices in Q3 Even As Volumes Fall Slightly
- Cassava Sciences Announces Expansion of Leadership Team | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=b6ea05b4cb56c0515eb9223c2692474ba12d15b578f2fbceb77195f0c30dbd9d | Taiwan Semiconductor Vs. Samsung Vs. Intel: Battle At The Leading Edge | This article discusses the battle between Taiwan Semiconductor, Samsung, and Intel at the leading edge of semiconductor technology. Click here to read more. | 2022-10-27T01:00:00 | SeekingAlpha | Taiwan Semiconductor Vs. Samsung Vs. Intel: Battle At The Leading Edge
Summary
- This article discusses the battle between TSMC, Samsung and Intel at the leading edge of semiconductor technology.
- Intel is seeing delays after delays and raising prices in a deteriorating PC market, where AMD continues to take share by leveraging TSMC's production capabilities.
- Samsung is the first to produce the 3nm process using the latest transistor architecture, but production yield remains a major question for potential customers.
- TSMC continues to be the dominant player with the best execution and a potential 100% market share in N3.
- At the leading edge, TSMC is the clear leader, while Samsung is a "show me" story, and Intel needs a miracle.
Introduction
Moore's Law says the number of transistors within an IC chip will roughly double every 2 years. As the semiconductor space moves toward higher transistor density and power efficiency, the gap between winners and losers continues to widen, with only three companies capable of competing at the leading edge. This article will discuss the battle between Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE:TSM) ("TSMC"), Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:SSNLF) and Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) in the production of the world's most advanced semiconductor technology.
The 30,000-foot view
The semiconductor industry began its journey into advanced processes (7nm and below) as early as 2018, when TSMC and Samsung Foundry achieved mass production for the 7nm process using the FinFET transistor architecture. Samsung was the first amongst its peers to adopt AMSL's EUV equipment for the 7nm process, while TSMC subsequently embraced EUV at 7nm+.
As Moore's Law predicted, both TSMC and Samsung made their ways to the 5nm process in 2020, while Intel did not launch its 12th-generation Alder Lake PC CPU made with Intel 7 (formerly Intel 10nm Enhanced SuperFin and equivalent to TSMC's N7) until 2H21.
In June 2022, Samsung was the first to mass produce the 3nm process, followed by TSMC's N3 production ramp in 4Q22. Intel 4 (equivalent to TSMC's N5/N4) will be Intel's first process node to utilize ASML's EUV technology, with the 14th-generation Meteor Lake CPU expected to launch in 2023.
Beyond the 3nm process, the industry will largely switch to a new transistor architecture called GAAFET (Gate-All-Around field-effect transistor), which Samsung is already using with its 3nm node. TSMC will employ the GAA structure for its N2 family, while Intel's marketing name for its GAA-based 2nm process is called RibbonFET.
The GAA technology puts multiple horizontal nanosheets on top of one another and surround these channels with gate materials on all sides. This offers higher current-carrying capacity than FinFET, which would require putting multiple vertical "fins" besides one another to increase the flow of electricity. From a consumer perspective, an electronic device using a GAAFET-based chip will ideally run faster and consume less power vs. one that runs on chips made with FinFET.
Intel: Delays after Delays
Intel was once a dominant force in the semiconductor space with more than 80% of the PC CPU market. But the chip giant has been struggling to keep up with Moore's law with consistent delays that have given its biggest competitor, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), a significant advantage. The company spent 7 years at the 14nm process, and did not start producing 10nm (equivalent to TSMC's 7nm) until 2019. The 10nm process node was supposed to launch in 2017, or 2 years ahead of AMD's Zen 2 on TSMC's N7.
Following a delayed timeline for 10nm, Intel 7 (previously Intel 10nm ESF and equivalent to TSMC's N7) also experienced issues and did not launch the 12th-gen Alder Lake desktop and notebook CPU until 2H21, almost 2 years behind AMD. The 13th-gen Raptor Lake CPU platform just launched on 10/20 and will compete against AMD's Zen 4 on TSMC's N5.
The 14th-gen Meteor Lake (built with Intel 4, equivalent to TSMC's N5/N4), however, is rumored to be delayed from 2H23 to 2024. While Intel did not confirm this, a potential delay in Meteor Lake to 2024 will likely give AMD another 1-2 years of advantage with its 5nm products. Note that Intel 4 (previously Intel 7nm) will be the first process node to use ASML's EUV technology, while TSMC and Samsung already started adopting EUV in the 7nm process.
Beyond Intel 4, Intel will transition to the GAA transistor architecture with the planned launch of Intel 20A (A stands for Ångström, where 0.1nm = 1A) in 2024 and Intel 18A in 2025. Intel 20A's first major customers include Qualcomm (QCOM) and AWS (AMZN), where AWS will be using Intel's packaging solutions. Intel 18A will be using ASML's latest EUV technology called the high-NA EUV. Considering the possibility of Intel 4 being delayed to 2024, however, the timeline for these two process nodes seem aggressive, in my view.
Process delays aside, Intel is also looking to raise CPU average prices by 10-20% in 4Q22. While the motive behind such a move is understandable as management is under pressure to seek gross margin upside, the timing of the price hike cannot be worse given the PC market is experiencing a downturn following an unusual 2021 and 2020 driven by pandemic tailwinds.
Overall, Intel is materially behind in technology and is raising prices in the least favorable environment possible as elevated PC inventories will likely stretch into 1H23. The market is not looking for much given 2023 consensus estimates currently call for $66.8 billion in revenue (+2% YoY vs. est. -12% in 2022) and EPS of 1.82 (-28% YoY vs. est. -48% in 2022), which comes down to a forward 1-year P/E of slightly under 15x. As much as many may argue the stock is a bargain, I see shares as a value trap, as Intel has mostly lost its way.
Samsung: The Runner-Up
Samsung has ambitions to be the leader in the foundry business given it was the first in the industry to adopt the EUV tool and to produce 3nm using the GAA transistor architecture. Production for the 1st-gen 3nm GAA began in June 2022, with the 2nd-gen 3nm GAA expected to ramp in 2024. TSMC, on the other hand, will stay with the FinFET architecture for its 3nm process.
The first customer of Samsung Foundry's 3nm is PanSemi, a Chinese crypto ASIC designer for Bitcoin mining. Qualcomm (QCOM) is also reported to be on the client list, but will likely take a more conservative stance as the chip designer previously cut 4nm chip orders from Samsung due to poor yield. Broadcom (AVGO) is another name that may place orders for Samsung's 2nd-gen 3nm process. Intel could potentially outsource its 3nm products, but will likely choose TSMC over Samsung. Lastly, Apple (AAPL) is unlikely to become a customer given conflicts of interest in the smartphone and tablet market.
Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD could also be potential customers for 3nm, but both will probably prioritize TSMC and treat Samsung Foundry as a possible second source. It's widely understood that Nvidia's GPU shortage during the pandemic was due to poor yield at Samsung's 8nm process. This was the reason why Nvidia decided to move its RTX 40 series GPUs back to TSMC's 4nm process.
Since 2017, Samsung's market share in the foundry space has been mostly unchanged at ~16%, as TSMC remains a dominant player that wins the most customers. Production yields and economies of scale are two key factors that determine profitability at the leading edge. This is where Samsung is having difficulty due to subpar quality and much smaller scale. TSMC's foundry capacity is >2x that of Samsung Foundry and >3x at the leading edge (7nm/5nm/3nm), with significantly higher Capex that represents almost 60% of 2022E foundry Capex vs. Samsung's <20%.
Despite yield issues, Samsung still managed to keep Qualcomm as a customer in recent years due to its favorable pricing strategy based on good die only (DigiTimes). This speaks volume to Samsung's troubled production history and whether its 3nm process will overcome quality challenges remains a major question. Google's Pixel phones also went with Samsung Foundry given Samsung's lower pricing, but estimated shipment in 2022 will likely be in the millions, a figure that will not contribute to Samsung's bottom line in any meaningful way.
Overall, Samsung's stock may still depend primarily on its performance in the memory and smartphone space. While some investors may see the foundry business as a long-term driver that'll help re-rate shares as logic may attract a better multiple than memory (commonly seen as a commodity), Samsung Foundry remains a "show me" story as customers have historically experienced poor yields that led to product delays and lost sales. The stock currently has a forward P/E of just below 12x, as the Street expects muted revenue growth (+2%) in C2023 given a worrisome outlook for smartphone and memory. As a result, I'd remain on the sidelines until there's convincing evidence that suggests above-expectation results at Samsung's leading edge.
TSMC: The Undisputed King
TSMC is the undisputed leader in the foundry race with a 56% market share (as of 2Q22) and 85%/90% share in 7nm/5nm. In the most recent earnings call (analysis here), management noted the 3nm process is on track for mass production in 4Q22, with revenue contribution in 2023. As is the case with any new technology, N3 will impact 2023 gross margin by 2-3 points due to initially higher depreciation expenses. Nevertheless, TSMC is very well-positioned to have a monopoly in the 3nm process, should Samsung continue to experience trouble.
Contrary to Samsung, TSMC's N3 will be using the more tried-and-true FinFET architecture that comes with lower execution risks. While the GAA transistor architecture is 90% similar to FinFET, the remaining 10% difference that comes from stacking horizontal nanosheets on top of one another is extremely difficult. As a result, TSMC is likely to experience fewer issues with N3 until it switches to GAAFET in N2, which is expected to enter production in 2025.
Apple will be the first major customer to use TSMC's N3 for the iPad, while the iPhone 15 Pro A17 processor and the M3 chip are expected to use TSMC's upgraded version of N3 called N3E, which will come online in 2H23. The N3E will also likely see Intel as a major customer for PC chiplets, on top of other potential clients such as Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm, Mediatek and hyperscalers like AWS.
As strong as TSMC's prospects may be at the leading edge, the company isn't immune to economic cycles, as the N7/N6 family will experience some headwinds due to elevated smartphone and PC inventories that may last through 1H23. Markets are bracing for a drop in N7 capacity utilization to as low as 80% in 1Q23, which could put TSMC's long-term gross margin target of 53%+ at risk (50% in 1H23?).
That said, TSMC still expects 2023 to be a growth year driven by strong HPC demand while the broader semiconductor industry is to contract by 2.5% per Gartner. As smartphones enter a relatively mature phase of the product lifecycle, HPC may account for >50% of TSMC's revenue in the next several years thanks to continuous investments in digital transformations including 5G, AI/ML, cloud and data center.
As of writing, TSMC's shares are trading near the low end of its historical range at ~12x NTM earnings (vs. 2015 August low of ~10x). The valuation gap between TSMC and other semiconductor peers such as ASML (25x), Nvidia (29x) and AMD (15x) can be explained by investors avoiding Taiwan's geopolitical risks that have been amplified by the Russian-Ukraine crisis and increasing military threats from the Chinese Communist Party.
While the fear is understandable, it's difficult to imagine how semi peers can sustain their valuation premiums in the extreme case that TSMC is nationalized by the CCP and the West loses its biggest foundry supplier and customer for mission-critical semiconductor equipment. In my view, TSMC's geopolitical risks have created an attractive risk/reward profile from a relative valuation standpoint, and investors willing to take the long view from here should be handsomely rewarded once the industry gets through the current down cycle.
Conclusion
In the cutthroat race of leading semiconductor technology, TSMC is the clear winner, while Samsung remains a "show me" story, and Intel needs a miracle. I continue to see shares of TSMC as attractive given markets continue to find reasons to shun the name based on the current downturn and negative geopolitical news flow. As a result, I believe investors willing to stick with this leader through thick and thin are well-positioned to generate above-market returns once the current cycle finds a bottom and fears on the geopolitical front start to dissipate.
This article was written by
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of TSM, AAPL, NVDA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Comments (38)
And no there is not a 2 year gap to TSM. Intel moving to Intel 4 by the end of this year or q1 next year keeps Intel on the same process node as AMD. Intel does not start Foundry until 2024 so being behind on foundry now does not matter. Intel will be at parity in 2024 and ahead by 2025.
Also TSM is not without its own delays.You seem nervous for AMD and TSM.
Since we are at it: my wife wishes I turn into Channing Tatum and she turn to Victoria Justice. Not good enough?
How about my fearful Taiwanese friends who are worried that China will invade their country, instead will get a love letter from President Xi promising them full sovereignty?
In a comparison, I would expect to see the strengths and weaknesses of each company, present and potential future.
Article is pure biased rubbish. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=97c0f83242e0686ee2948712f1ebef9ae6132ce75e670d024f4df462f1973913 | SentinelOne, Intel's Mobileye IPO, Exxon Mobil And Oracle | In this episode, we're diving into SentielOne. Plus, Vladimir Dimitrov joins us to break down the Intel Mobileye IPO and discuss Exxon Mobil and Oracle. | 2022-10-26T23:45:00 | SeekingAlpha | SentinelOne, Intel's Mobileye IPO, Exxon Mobil And Oracle
Summary
- We're diving into SentinelOne, a well-funded cybersecurity stock that is taking over the mid-market share.
- Vladimir Dimitrov joins us to break down the Intel Mobileye IPO, thoughts on Exxon Mobil and Oracle.
- We play bullish or bearish with breaking headlines for the week.
Editor's Note: This is the transcript version of the previously recorded show. This transcript is only a part of the entire episode. Due to time and audio constraints, transcription may not be perfect.
We encourage you to listen to the podcast embedded above or on the go via Apple Podcasts.
View more of Vladimir's research at The Roundabout Investor.
Grab your free 14-day trial of Austin's service Cash Flow Freaks now.
Now look, we're going to go and play the guest stock because I love this. You looked out a stock that you want to communicate to our audience here about why you think that it might be a good buying opportunity. Honestly, I’ve never heard about this stock until you brought it to my attention. I think it's an interesting one as well. So, we're going to play a quick game, guess the stock. Obviously, I'll give you these couple of hints.
If you think you know what it is, jump into the chat, let us know you can do a ticker symbol, you can let us know the company name. And let's get into it. So, number first up. This is a cybersecurity stock, which you might have seen. It is based out of Mountain View, California. Hello with Silicon Valley. It IPO-ed on June 30, 2021. So just last year, added $1.3 billion valuation. It’s the official secure -- cybersecurity sponsor of Aston Martin's Cognizant, sorry, F1 team.
So if you're an F1 fan, maybe that gives you a little hint. Dan Loeb's Third Point Capital, which we mentioned earlier, a nice hedge fund that was in our Disney episode because we took a big stick. He owns 20 million shares of the stock with an average buy price of $42.78 according to his last 13F filing in July. But the fund did sell $1 million shares of the stock during that quarter. Interesting. The company's competitors\other competing services in the market include CrowdStrike, Bitdefender, Sophos, and Microsoft Defender.
And we've got a couple of guesses. We got Okta. We got CrowdStrike. CrowdStrike. No. Not CrowdStrike. No. Shack not Fire Iron. All right. So, you want to know what it is? This company was formerly known as Sentinel Labs Incorporated, but today we know it as SentinelOne (NYSE:S). Alright, Austin. So, what's the rundown on this?
Let's talk about SentinelOne. Okay. So, to your point, you know, who is this company? What's going on? I think a lot of people might not be familiar. So, here's the deal. They know, just last week, we talked about on the Wall Street Journal. I think it was part of our bullish and bearish banter. That there was an article claiming that 2,200 chief information technology officers across multi-billion-dollar company's biggest focus for 2023. It was ramping up their cybersecurity efforts.
And it's criminal, in my opinion, to drop such a cool headline like that to our listeners and not have some sort of stock idea that could benefit from a -- from such a clear secular growth trend. Right? And that's what we're going to be doing today. So, I'm -- let's talk about SentinelOne, a cybersecurity provider for endpoint, cloud, and identity protection. Austin, what is end point protection? How -- what does it even mean? How is it understood? How does it fit into a company's ledger cybersecurity stock?
Good question. Think about it like this, Daniel. Let's say you're a company with hundreds or even thousands of employees. All of your employees are using laptops and smartphones to complete work, communicate with one another and access private data. The actual device itself like the laptop, the smartphone, the tablet, that is the endpoint device. That's the last point of contact with the company's network outside of a firewall. You guys follow me here, end point device outside the firewall. This is why our bosses always tell us, you know, don't do personal stuff on your work computer. Don't download those personal apps on your work phone. Don't do that stuff on our computers. So let's now pretend one of those endpoint devices that your employee is in possession with has been compromised, if this was a phishing email, if they downloaded a weird file, whatever, but it's compromised by a hacker. Since this device can access all the company's private data, so can now the hacker. And having an endpoint protection strategy in place is essential for every single company that uses technology if you just think about it right, to do work because every endpoint device can be a point of attack from hackers.
And with the number of endpoint devices increasing exponentially because of remote work, the risk of cybersecurity and cyberattacks increases as well. So the large part -- I'm sorry, the hard part about all of this is these attacks are taking place at the intersection between humans and devices, humans and machines. Right? So there's a bunch of room for error with humans. We're always making mistakes. We're clicking links. We're downloading stuff.
We get phished in emails. It happens. But traditionally speaking, when an endpoint device is compromised, it takes a very well-trained cybersecurity professional to not just recognize that the attack is taking place, but to also isolate the endpoint device from the broader network to make sure that more damage isn't done. And when I say damage, I want to remind everyone cybersecurity tax costs over $8 million in the US. So now you understand endpoint security, why it's important? How it impacts all of us if we're working remotely, working from home.
What is SentinelOne? How are they working in this space? So through artificial intelligence, SentinelOne is able to detect, investigate, and respond to a cyberattack. There's a bunch of reasons in my opinion, to be excited about SentinelOne. We'll talk about the reasons to be excited and reasons you might want to be on the sidelines. And then I'll let, obviously, we'll have one chime in and give their own feedback. So the first reason to be excited is their earnings. Right?
The company in my opinion is crushing it. Annual recurring revenue grew a 122% to $439 million with revenue captured during the most recent quarter being over a $103 million up 124%. They added a record number of customers during the quarter, 1100 customers sequentially quarter over quarter. That's insane. Total customer crowd count grew 60% year-over-year to over 8600 customers. Customers with annual recurring revenue of a $100,000 or more, right, so these big paying customers grew by a 117% to 755, and they're customer wide, so every customer. It’s not just the high paying ones.
Dollar based net retention rate hit an all-time high of a 137% land and expand. Right? Their gross profit margins came in at 65% up 6% year-over-year with those non-GAAP margins hovering around that 72% up 10% year-over-year. Operating margins increased 42% year-over-year. However, there's still an unprofitable company. And a wonderful thing which we'll talk about soon. Well, the, I guess, operating margin expansion being a wonderful thing that is. So finally, their balance sheet is strong as ever, $1.2 billion.
No debt, which I think is great considering where we are headed toward a looming recession if we're not able to run right now. I don't think this is a type of company that's probably going to thrive during macroeconomic uncertainty, but it’s so good to have no debt. And now looking toward the next quarter, $111 million in revenue, love it, similar operating margins, similar gross profit margins. Second reason to be excited back to what we're talking about with those operating margins is the operating leverage, right?
As a percent of total revenue, the research and development, sales and marketing and general administrative costs all came down year-over-year as a percent of revenue. Right? Operating leverage, they're seeing that it's great. 32% decrease in cost as a percent of revenue when compared to the quarter last year. They're not only growing exponentially as a company, but the economies of scale are beginning to kick in. The last reason I think someone would be excited is a lot of these really cool stuff at Bank of America (BAC) recently published about them, CrowdStrike and Microsoft specifically this quote about endpoint security.
So as you guys know, I think, you know, these big banks go around that, these little check-ins with the companies in the coverage universe. And after their check-in, Bank of America came out and said, end point security spending remains resilient despite macro pressures. And partners noted that August and September were two of the strongest month of sales since COVID began. Our check suggests that SentinelOne's sweet spot is still the mid-sized enterprises.
SentinelOne benefits from co-selling with vendors like Zscaler (ZS), and it also tends to have more partner friendly culture than its peers. So those are the reasons to get excited, reasons not to get excited, reasons you might stay on the sidelines for the cybersecurity company. The first one, is cybersecurity is very fragmented. Right? So I'd imagine if SentinelOne wants to continue to grow and become one of these massive decabillion dollar enterprises, they need to continue doing this merger and acquisition stuff.
They just bought a company recently. A lot of acquisitions, I think, are on the table here. Two, they're unprofitable. They're very unprofitable. They're not making any money. They have not laid out a path to profitability yet. Three, the valuation is very steep in my opinion. It's still trading around twelve times forward revenue, which is a high price to pay considering the current, you know, macroeconomic environment we're in with raising interest rates and the fact that they're still unprofitable.
And finally, their stock based compensation expense continues to rise, which is only prolonging that eventual flip toward profitability. So if you're a growth investor, you might be drooling right now. If you're not a growth investor, you might think this is crazy. Daniel, what are your thoughts on SentinelOne after I've laid it all out here for us?
That was a great, absolutely great layout that you just ran us through. The first thing I like to do, obviously as you -- if you watch the show, you know, is we're going to go look at the Seeking Alpha factor grades and the rating summary. So, Josh, let's go ahead and throw up that first slide, so everybody can see that the Seeking Alpha authors on this stock currently have a buy rating. The Wall Street analyst also have a buy rating, but our quant system here at Seeking Alpha has a hold.
Let's go into the next slide and look at the factor grades that compartmentalize into what creates the Quant system. So valuation is a B minus, growth is a C, profitability is a C minus, momentum is a C, and the revisions are a B minus. Obviously, the grades you can see three months ago, when they first started by the Quant, just so you guys know that Quant doesn't start looking at the grades and so we have a full year of data on the company from their earnings reports when it starts to compare all the metrics.
So that's why you don't have a six months ago column right there. But from three months ago, obviously, the valuation has improved. the growth has slowed down, profitability has slowed down, or sorry, grew a little bit. Momentum grew a little bit. And EPS revisions from the analysts also has had seen a positive improvement, which is a good sign for us. When we’re talking about, is this a good growth company is a good sign. So let's go to the next slide. I want to break it down. Here's the analyst breakdown of what is going on in Wall Street.
In the last ninety days, nineteen analysts, here's how they break out. Strong buy. There are eleven analysts with a strong buy. Three have a buy rating and five have a hold rating. There are no sell recommendations on the stock. Love seeing that. Let's go ahead and look at the Seeking Alpha authors breakdown on the next slide. You got in the last thirty days, not ninety days, thirty days, seven authors who have given ratings on the stock. There's only one cell, there's one hold, and the other five are buy or strong buy recommendations.
Now the thing that did keep my interests, go to the next slide, Josh, is here's the breakdown of the balance sheet. If you talk about, okay, well, if they're doing stock based compensation, they're delaying all this, they're burning cash, they're not profitable yet, those are all true. Exactly. They just have been created, they've been -- they did two acquisitions, I think, since they've gone public. But they still have $1.22 billion of total cash on the balance sheet. And their debts only is under $30 million.
So obviously, they have a little bit of a run-rate here. They just need to capitalize on it. You've seen the employee headcount increase, maybe that's due to the acquisitions, maybe it's not, maybe it's because of the growth factor that you're talking about and they have momentum on their side and they're actually taking that mid-market share like you're talking about. Josh, we can go ahead and take those off.
Taking a quick look at the chart just so everybody can have an idea of what I see initial thoughts wise on here. Let me go ahead and share my screen or a second one. By the way, ticker symbol is S. If you're listening to this on the podcast or watching after the fact. So obviously, we saw it went public. It got a nice big old boost. The initial question I had, and Austin, maybe you know the answer to this off the top of your head is, why was the stock having a significant pullback from its peak in November of last year before the markets pullback in January. Do you know why that might have been?
Well, didn't well, I think the SPY pulled back in January. Wasn't the Nasdaq peaking in November? Great question.
NASDAQ. No. NASDAQ. Well, it came back a little bit, but it went right back towards its highs.
Good question.
I was trying to do some research on it. I couldn't really figure anything out besides that at this moment in time, there was a hedge fund exiting their position. Now, I don't know if that would cause this steep of a drop. Yeah. It's probably not. No. So I was a little curious about that, maybe a stock-based compensation. I'm not really sure what happened there. I was trying to find some research on it. But obviously, we do know that Dan Loeb started entering -- I think it was around this area here, is when Dan Loeb's third point started taking a stake. And he still has 20 million shares. So something to keep in mind.
Obviously, moving averages are all on a downtrend. The stock has been demolished. It's off of the lows. Will it hold? Hopefully, in cyber security, as we've talked about, we think it's bullish for the long term. But they are competing, like I said, against companies like Microsoft and CrowdStrike (CRWD) and everything else. So they've really got to lean into their partner program, which I from what I understand, they built out really well and try to do, like, a kind of a backdoor business approach of being buddy buddy, getting all their clients, and then probably eventually in the future if they can make that work, they'll flip the switch. Or they'll try to at least.
Yeah. And I think, you know, from what I was reading to online from this Bank of America report is that CrowdStrike remains the EPP, right, endpoint protection provider for these large, large enterprises. Right? If you're a big company, you go with CrowdStrike. But we have a bunch of small and medium sized businesses. And that I think is what's say no one is going after. All this because I think what's interesting is when CrowdStrike shares their earnings. They say these are the companies paying us over a million a year. Whereas SentinelOne says, these are companies paying us over a hundred thousand a year. Right? So much smaller from that perspective.
Yeah. They definitely have an uphill battle. Right? And I love seeing Stephanie in the chat here breaking down EBITDA and the profit margin. And Denise is also pointing out that it might be a good company for the future to be acquired. Oh, she says, maybe Shopify will buy them? That'd be interesting. I don't -- I think it'd be -- I don't know, they have a lot of cash on the balance sheet. If they believe in their mission, they believe in their acquisitions they're making, if they're trying to become a dominant player, they might try to hold their own as long as possible. That's just my initial thoughts. But – and full disclosure, you are a shareholder of this company. Right?
Yes. Full disclosure. I hold stock in this company. I did not get in when Loeb got in, around those 40s. I've been sort of accumulating in, like, this mid-20s high and all around the twenties. So I have been accumulating shares for share. And I think also it's interesting to point out, there is one of those cell publishers or I'm sorry, one of the articles rather on Seeking Alpha from a publisher. And I read it, and it was interesting to me that it wasn't exactly a sell saying, like, here's, like, why the company is bad and since saying it's still trading at a lofty valuation, which I totally agree with.
So I don't know if you have any ideas Daniel or anyone in the chat has to say or maybe even, you know, send us an email. Hey, here are a couple of things that’s racing red flags to me about SentinelOne. Please share because we love the feedback. We like sharing these ideas with you all. And this is -- we're just always having a good time and opening the dialogue in discussion.
Yeah. For sure. Real quick, I want to answer the question from Chris on in the chat. How do I access the recordings of Stock Market Live? You can go to Seeking Alpha and we actually have our own author profile. It has every episode of Stock Market Live. You can find it there. You can leave comments. We interact in the comments all the time. We love talking to you guys. So check us out there. The one thing, you just mentioned red flags.
And I just remember that I did find one red flag about this company that I was a little worried about and I just want to share it real quick before we get to Vladimir. It's almost time to get in with the Intel Mobileye. We got to talk to them. So I was on Seeking Alpha looking through I'm just going to go back to this simple page, so I can show you guys how I found this. So, on the simple page of Seeking Alpha, you can go all the way down here to the bottom where we have the SEC filings.
And I love looking at the statement of changes and beneficial ownership because sometimes they can tell you a lot. They can tell you when people that are up in the c suite are exiting their stock holdings before they know a bad quarter is coming. And this one caught my eye when I was going through. This is the CFO of the company. So definitely knows what is happening with the financials, David. And he was recently had stock converted from common B shares to common A shares.
So I was like, okay. Well, it's a conversion. It's usually a part of a bigger plan. This is what is highlighted in his rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Now the interesting thing about that type of plan is that is how most of the time C Suite executives communicate to the market, that they have a plan to sell stock over time, so that the market doesn't freak out when they go and sell their stock. But the other thing they don't really tell you is, at any time that C suite member can say, wait, I don't want to execute my plan in this quarter.
If they know financials are going to be good. So keep that in the back of your mind. It could go either way. This guy could be taking it, putting it in a trust or using it for elsewhere. But he got his stock shares awarded and then immediately turn around and sell it. That's something I want to keep an eye on is I get as part of your plan, but also there's been plenty of times where an executive has stepped in and said, hey, don't execute on my plan this quarter.
So, I totally agree. And I think as you know, I worked for a publicly traded healthcare company, and I remember one of our c suite execs sold, like, $27 million worth of stock once. And I asked like, hey man like, what's going on? Why did you sell so much stock at our company? What's, you know, what's going back your head? And he's, like, oh, no reason. I just I got, like, three houses, and I wanted to just pay off my mortgages on them. So, I - that's what I had so I sold them. And I was like, okay. And the stock went up another, you know, 100% over the next couple of years. So, it's just -- it's interesting to me…
Yeah.
But from that I think it's totally valid. But also, like, I think, you know, people sell stock for any reason, but they only buy it for one reason. Right? So I always like to try and get more emphasis to who's buying the stock versus like who's selling it? I don't know.
No. It's a great point. And I'm glad you brought it up for everybody because that is the other side of the coin. Right? It is always great to go in and look at those beneficial ownership to see who is acquiring stock before the quarter earnings and everything else. And obviously, you're right. 100% right. Could be for any reason whatsoever I always just like to keep a little eye on it because sometimes…
Oh, yeah.
…my people and you're like, hold on. Red flag. All right. Put it in a put order. Put it in a call order. Like, whatever it might be. And that's where you really find that Alpha R trade. Now, we take away too much time. Thank you so much for bringing that Sentinel stock to us. I mean, I had no idea this company existed, so I appreciate all the effort you put into that. I'm sure everybody here does as well. But we got to get over to Vladimir who is joining us today.
He is a Seeking Alpha Marketplace Author, you can find them the roundabout investor. Vladimir, why don't you go ahead and jump onscreen here with us? Thank you so much. If you guys don't know, he’s joining us from the other side of the planet right now. So it's obviously nighttime. We appreciate him taking the extra time in his day to join us. Vladimir, why don't you go ahead and just take a quick second introduce yourself as well as the service and what you're all about.
Okay. Hi, Daniel, and thank you for having. Basically, I'm a full time Seeking Alpha Author for like 2 years now. I recently launched a service called The Roundabout Investor, where I focus on finding high quality businesses that are really long term oriented. It's sort of do not succumb to this short termism within the markets. Yeah. It's kind of a unique service and it's a bit hard to understand by most people because what do you mean by high quality businesses, there are no competitive advantages.
But to be honest, it's kind of like, it's really easy finding out all these businesses that do not really go into managing the business on a quarter-to-quarter basis. And yeah, my background is basically in finance. Prior to Seeking Alpha, I was a strategy consultant in the city of London for a number of years. And yeah, now I'm a full time Seeking Alpha Author.
Man, we really love having you part of the family here, man. Like, you -- I've been reading your recent articles and we're going to dive into it. Let's just go ahead. Why am I waiting? Well, let's go ahead and get into it. Obviously, the big-ticket item on the table today is you wrote -- you recently wrote about Intel Mobileye.
Yeah.
And obviously, they're going public. They just started trading a little while ago. We're seeing a big upside. I'm not sure where it is right now. It was at 30% and pulled down 26%. But like, it has seen a massive move, why don't you go ahead and just kind of give us your initial thoughts on? Is this positive for Intel as a company? Or is it kind of worrisome that they're doing this IPO in a down year where IPOs are pretty much tried up and the valuation has dramatically reduced similar to almost similar to what happened with Wework (WE). Right? What is -- what are your thoughts?
Yeah. I think most of the people really sort of getting too much out of it. Because at the end of the day, Intel is only selling a tiny proportion of the business. Most of the people don't really realize that it's not the whole business that they're selling. They're selling only around 5%. And that's not really, in my opinion, that's not really a sort of detail giving up on the -- on the whole thing.
So why are they doing the IPO now, though? I mean that's -- do they need the cash? Like, that's I think one of the speculations that's been going on is, you know, Intel is spending so much on capital expenditures. They want a bigger presence in Europe. They want to have their Ohio foundry bill. Are they just strapped for cash? I mean, this is the easiest method for them to race?
I mean, to be honest, they -- Intel will really need some cash in the -- over the coming years, as they’re being on the business and the foundry business. But this is not -- this doesn't have anything to do with sort of needing the capital. First of all, it's a really tiny amount. I think there is around 800 million to 900 million over it. When Intel actually spends $25 billion a year right now and they slowly need to run this up over the coming years. So, yeah, I don't think it's really -- I don't think they're really for the cash out of it.
They in my view, they really want to get their, sort of, their foot in the door, get sort of get the message out there. This is the company and get probably a few quarters or years of sort of SEC filings, get investors familiar with the business. And then I would expect for them to seek some deals with outside investors probably.
There you go. All right. And so just to I mean, Austin and I were a little confused earlier way.
Yeah. I’m not going to lie down. I know what Intel does. The idea that that Daniel kind of painted for me and gave the picture there. I kind of get it. But what IPO-ing? How are they making money? How much money are they making? What's going on here with this stock?
Well, basically, they're the leader in ADAS. ADAS basically is all these advanced driving assistance systems within the cars. So what they do? They purchase the semiconductors. They create this system on the chip. And then they sell it to sort of out of parts manufacturers or auto OEMs that eventually retrofit into the cars. But now with the autonomous vehicles, this field is sort of changing.
Now you need huge investments in software. You also need sort of CPUs and GPUs working in tandem for the whole autonomous driving experience. You also need all these feeds to sort of get data out of and create the software around it. So, the field is changing quite drastically.
So you're saying that they're selling these to be retrofitted. Right? Who's buying these? Who are buying these? They're -- who's buying their products, their software? And what kind of cars are kind of taking this? You said it was ADAD, a d a s?
Yes.
Yeah. Real quick.
That stands for Advanced Driver Assistance System, just for everybody to know.
Yeah. and that's completely different from what Tesla's doing. That's completely different from what Toyota's doing. Right?
Actually, it's similar. Okay. If you think about it.
Yeah. Good time, I have no idea about EVs or self-driving cars. This is just so it's a new world for me right now.
Yeah. It's just about doing sort of with the others. They're coming from a bit of different parts of the market into the whole AV space. And their customers are actually not very well known. They're sort of companies [Ziet and Palio]. These are, like, auto parts within the supply chain, auto parts manufacturer that basically get auto parts and get it to the supply chain to the OEMs. A big client of this is these uptick. They are public-traded, and they are sort of one of the leaders within the AD space. So they own the fleets and they're planning to launch the service?
We got a quick question here in the chat, Vladimir from Christian. He's kind of wondering how does Mobileye differ from Waymo? Do you have some insight that you could share with him?
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, they're different in a way that Waymo owns the fleet. The impact of Google really helps them to when they're launching their robotaxi’s, they own the fleet and basically deal within house. Mobileye, does not plan to own the fleets. They're planning to get the technology, get the software, and then sell it to third parties. Having said that, though, it's worth mentioning that they actually need some fleet to get the data. So, because when you're building all these complex software for the AVs, you do need fleet on the streets to gather data, analyze it, and then create data.
The data. So Vladimir, I'm going to ask you, as of right now, knowing that the spin-off is happening, is this -- would you be invest, I mean, it's only you said what five or six percent of the entire company actually be an IPO. Is that investable right now?
I think so. It probably won't be as liquid as for pension funds and large hedge funds. But for retails, investor hours, team saw. Although, personally, I wouldn't really go for it right now. I mean it's, first of all, it's an IPO. It's a really dynamic market. Most of the peers operate as part of bigger entities. So for me personally, it's not really worth jumping on the train right now before the dust has settled from the whole IPO. And to that point I said…
So that’s exactly what I was going to ask. Right? So you're saying it's not exactly the time. But will you think it's like -- it could be like a retail thing, not exactly hedge funds because it's only 5%. As the dust settles, what are some perhaps like catalysts that would get a retail investor more excited to maybe make the make the jump there? Is it maybe a patent? Is it a technology? Is it like maybe new fleets to test this technology on? What would be a catalyst or two that would get people excited about this?
Likely, it would be a partnership deal, is what I expect. My opinion is that, they're trying to get up some partner involve whether that's a company like Apple, whether it's an auto manufacturer, it's not yet known, but they're definitely looking for outside investors and partnerships.
Yeah. I was wondering about the catalyst too. I want to move off from Mobileye real quick and let's go back to the parent company. Like Intel, do you -- with seeing how much intel is pulled back and hearing the story of what's going on with America and the semiconductors and everything else, do you think Intel as a company would be investable then?
Yeah. It definitely looks attractive at this level. It's a little similar story here for me. I mean, semiconductors are now in the eye of the storm if I should say. We did within this bear market, I mean, there is huge momentum trade that was going on within the semiconductor space. that is now fading with liquidity being withdrawn. There is also slowing growth within the sector. There are huge geopolitical risks within the field. So I would say definitely, there is one of my favorites, but not right now. I'm still sort of taking the wait and see approach on that.
Yeah. Josh, can you throw up that chart that I snagged from Vladimir's article actually between Intel, NVIDIA, and AMD? Because you made this chart, you had it in the article and I thought it was too great to not share with everybody. Meaning, the semiconductor sector has been just completely demolished this year with everything that's happening. And real quick, actually, while we're at it, I think we have a couple slides about Intel as well. Let's go ahead and run through those just so everybody's aware of what's going on with the ratings.
Let's go to the next slide. So Intel from the Seeking Alpha authors have a buy rating. The Wall Street analysts are a hold on Intel. The Quant system is a hold on Intel. Next slide, Josh. And looking at the factor grades, we see that valuation actually is an A plus and profitability is an A plus, which is pretty interesting to me. Growth is a complete F. Momentum and revisions are both D's kind of struggling at these levels, but it does pay a dividend. Right? So we pull up the dividend grades here.
Next slide, Josh, dividend is a B minus for safety, C for growth, A plus for yield and A for consistency. So it looks like the dividend seems to be safe here. So that as a, you know, as a value investor long term play, that the story you're telling me about Mobileye and Intel as a company I agree with you. I think these levels are starting to look a little attractive, personally.
I will personally be a bit careful with the dividend. because Intel building their foundry business right now, they have huge capital, it would have huge capital needs over the coming years. And given the huge opportunity in front of them this dividend might be at risk in the coming years, but that will be certainly be for the greater good in my view over the long term.
Aren't they getting a lot of company from or a lot of funds from the government to build this foundry, though?
Yeah. They also rely on the chipset product. But obviously, they will need internal capital as well.
Got you. Josh, you can go ahead. I'm jumping over here to Intel on Seeking Alpha, but I'm seeing a forward yield of 5.5%.
That's very risky in this sector. Because the semiconductor space that’s very risky.
Right? Share price was down and yield goes up.
Yeah. Totally. Totally. But while that's…
So he makes a good point of, like, dividend, you know, that would be the first thing to cut if they do need to spend a ton on capital. The CapEx. Good point. Any other questions Austin for you about Intel and Mobileye? I had one more thing I wanted to ask, but just want to check.
No. I think that’s all right. The catalysts partnership ideas. Okay. That makes a lot of sense. So yeah. No. I just got -- I'm excited to keep my eye on this one. This is really interesting. I really appreciate you sharing this with us, Vladimir.
Denise has a good say, she's over here in the chat says insurance companies across the world want the type of data that Mobileye has to help with their loss models, pricing premium and policy inclusions exclusions. So, Intel slowed out for us at Mobileye will help fund the dividend rather than paying from operating profits. A lot of your thoughts on that because that is actually, I mean..
Big brain.
Definitely a fair point. What I must say is, I have another personal favorite within the field that's I'll keep in secret because it's within my service.
Oh, come on tell them.
But it's -- the question here really is, how do you want to operate this whole business? Do you want to operate it in house with all the other auto related businesses, insurance, and all that kind of stuff. Or do you want to have it separate? This is still not -- still not certain in my view. How should the field settle in over the coming years? Will it be better to be independent? Will it be better to be as part of a bigger entity. That's still the bigger norm.
So do you -- does it rhyme with the Test of My Love.
No.
That I can say.
Oh, okay. Alright. We'll get it from another time. Save it for the service, obviously. So as I mentioned, I was going through all your articles. And I got to ask you this. Moving on from Intel is you wrote an excellent piece about what's going on with Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM). And I've said everybody before, I am a shareholder of Exxon Mobil. I have been for a long time. I've seen it go up to the nineties. I wrote it down to the forties, the thirties. I'm back over a hundreds.
But I couldn't help. I have the same question for you as one of the users on Seeking Alpha left on that article. And it's, the article sounded very bullish. You came across very, very bullish about why Exxon Mobil is standing out from its peers. Yet you gave it a hold rating for the stock. Just kind of curious why is that?
Yeah. Definitely long term. The bullish thesis still holds. The problem with this sector is that it's really cyclical and when investor sentiment can really drive the stock price up and down around the fair value. So, seeing this back I first talked about Exxon Mobil back in 2020, when the sentiment around the stock was to the bottom. Seeing this huge investor – swing in investor sentiment is what I don't really like within the company. And it's like fundamental CRD could change quarter by quarter basis and being so kind of up on these quarterly results, the investors is something I don't really like about it. But definitely yeah.
Definitely. I mean, probably investors, readers should not be reading that much into all these ratings if they plan to hold let's say, for next ten years. I'm just putting this rating with the minded people who might be buying or selling for, let's say, the next few months.
Got you. Okay. I'm glad I asked you because I was I'm just looking for clarification because Austin and I on this show, we ask each other all time. What about oil? Where's oil going? You're bullish of bears. Like, we're trying to figure this out. Obviously, it's been the sector that dominated this year, but we know that's not going to continue to happen every single Right? So that's where I had asked. I was like, what is the time frame here, which we always talk about is what's your time frame.
So I'm glad you bought it. Okay. And you also have the huge politicals because when the administration sees all these huge profits, you know, what usually happens. In the UK, they're trying to introduce this tax on profits. So yeah…
And what I just saw on Seeking Alpha’s website, but I didn't know and maybe this is me, just not giving up with oil as well as I should. Exxon Mobil is a $450 billion company now. Oh my gosh. Wow.
They're heavily focused in R&D of other things outside of oil now too, like the hydrocarbons and everything else. Like, they're trying to help lead the charge in that regard, but then also as I think in the news I saw this morning was that they found more oil patches around -- where was that? Got to look it up. One second.
Guyana. I mean, Guyana, I heard that that they just bought some new Guyana. There it is. Two new offshore Guyana discoveries. I mean, they’ve got discovery. They do it across the board. And actually, this was a company put on my radar by my grandfather. And he's been invested in it for a lot longer than I have. So yeah. Interesting company. Yeah, it’s kind of like was under the radar. Everybody wanted to get the props to Chevron. And I was like, there that’s – that’s my warrant kind of the same amount of hype.
Definitely. Definitely. And that should price really well with my sort of philosophy roundabout investments. Because they scored excellent. They continued to reinvest and given us – given us however negative all the prices collapsed, they continue to reinvest in these projects that basically take decades to build and managing this business for quarter by quarter, it's still not working well if you want to secure a lot of your long-term competitive advantage. So, yes.
So, I'm seeing Vladimir on your author page. You publish a lot of content. You are publishing analysis nearly, I'd say, every week, every other week.
I try to.
I mean, I'm sitting right. Very good stuff. That's incredible. One thing I noticed though is, a lot of well at least more recently, a lot of seldom buy ratings. Right? So I guess what I'm trying to say is, I'm only seeing a couple. And Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) is on that list. And I'm not -- I don't mean to blindside you here on some Oracle questions. But isn't Oracle doing this, like, big turnaround? Isn't, like, cloud computing like a big thing for them now? Aren't they like, super focused on growth? It's, like, just this whole secular growth turnaround in Cloud.
Walk me a little bit through maybe Oracle or the next thing you mentioned, like, from a short-term perspective. Perhaps walk me through Oracle for the next maybe six to nine months. Maybe some of the biggest focuses, perhaps maybe some headwinds that they might be facing?
Six to nine months is probably they're basically getting more to the infrastructure space. So…
Got it. Got it.
…usually, they're really strong in the ERP space in the software powered with SAS. But many years they've been sort of a niche player in the deep cloud infrastructure space. And now as the growth slows down, I think we saw an article today about Google in their problems, like the whole growth is kind of slowing down, cooling off a bit after the boom of the post-pandemic recovery.
And Oracle is really trying to sort of get a -- is sort of a premium player in that space, right, if I could say. So, six to nine months, I would expect them to sort of continue doing their growth path, probably accelerate a bit, but to be uncertain. I mean, it's I'm a bit more on the long-term side for that.
Okay. So long term with the work goal, I'm over here looking at their stock chart. They kind of have this long consolidation phase between I want to say, call it 2014 and 2017, 2018. And then during the pandemic, you know, they saw a lot of momentum heading higher. And so, from a long-term perspective, I'm seeing they're paying a little bit of a dividend. What I guess is getting you excited most about Oracle maybe for the next couple of years?
Yeah. I mean, as I said, they're really trying to sort of transition and even their cloud ERP segment is growing at 20%, 30% over the past few years. But since they have lots of legacy business with sort of on premise. They have all these database on premise and transitioning from this slower growth business that's been dominating Oracle for years to the high growth space in the clouds. Takes time. But once you look on the needle surface, you see the huge exponential in these areas.
I love it. I love it.
That’s awesome. Guys – Vladimir, first off, thank you so much for taking this extra time today. We love having you on here. Obviously, Austin had a great point. I was just scrolling down further down your page. I mean, you're talking about you write on IBM (IBM), Mondelez (MDLZ), General Mills (GIS), NVIDIA, IBM, does it say IBM for Amazon (AMZN)? Or I mean, all the companies, it seems like everybody wants to know about your writing about it. So I personally would recommend everybody go check you out on Seeking Alpha.
Your author page are blown up with articles like Austin pointed out. We loved having you on today. Love the thesis. Love the breakdown. Thanks for answering our questions. Besides Seeking Alpha, are you on Twitter as well? Where else can we find you?
Yes. Yeah. Twitter and LinkedIn as well. I'm on – marketing both pages. So, basically, going on my profile, I think there's a link to my profile.
Man, that's crazy. Vladimir. Thanks for taking the time today. Awesome.
Listen, man. You just earned yourself a follower on Twitter, LinkedIn, and Seeking Alpha. You're a rock star. I really appreciate all the constant analysis. 253 posts. This is incredible. I can't wait to read more.
In two years.
Thank you so much.
Thank you for having me again.
In two weeks. Two years. Two years. Oh, two years. Two years. Two years. Two years. Two years. Oh, no.
Awesome. You guys set your game up? No. That's no.
Thank you for having me, guys, and have a good one.
Hey, you too. Oh, awesome. What a guy? Josh, let's go ahead and throw up that last slide. We got to start rocking and rolling. Vida as well says, thanks Vladimir. Thank you to everybody hanging out with us today. Obviously, if you want to give us some stock ideas for future episodes, we continue to take those week over week. Email us at [email protected]. You can find myself on LinkedIn. I'm there posting stuff all the time. Austin's Seeking Alpha, LinkedIn, Twitter and TikTok.
And TikTok.
I'm always on TikTok. Maybe you -- if you're -- I don't know if any of you are on TikTok. But if you're on TikTok, check me out. Big TikTok guy. Big TikTok guy.
He is a big TikTok guy, and he's crushing it over there. Vladimir Demistrov – Dimitrov, sorry, at The Roundabout Investor on Seeking Alpha. You can also just go check out his author profile, all those articles. He broke it down. And he's a CFA, by the way. So, he likes looking numbers. Let's be honest. All right. Awesome. Anything else from you, man?
Nothing from me, but I do want to throw a name in the hat for next week for our stock idea, Academy Sports. Academy Sports. We've seen a lot about them. Their stock is up 200% since they IPO-ed during the pandemic. It hasn't really seen too much of a pullback. We got a lot of catalysts as it relates to -- it's a very interesting stock. So, I'm going to throw that in the hat please. You know, we got John talking about Dick's. If you have any ideas, just email us.
They've got some good partnership deals. On it. You guys let us know. What do you think about Academy Sports? Should we cover it? Yes, or no? We've obviously got a ton of other stocks that we still got to get to. But obviously, we're building it up. We're going through them week after week. Bringing you the analysis. Thanks for hanging out with us on your lunch hour, your evening, wherever you are. We appreciate it. Thanks for listening.
We encourage you to listen to the podcast embedded above or on the go via Apple Podcasts.
View more of Vladimir's research at The Roundabout Investor.
Grab your free 14-day trial of Austin's service Cash Flow Freaks now.
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Comments (4) | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=681fcb14a3bcfe388cfa0b9c6504ca3f7d1307922f99743498e4632766bc55c5 | Meta’s Increased Spending Is Good News for Nvidia and AMD | Arista Networks, Nvidia, and AMD rose after Meta said it intended to spend more on data centers and network infrastructure in 2023. | 2022-10-26T22:45:00 | MarketWatch | Meta Platform’s results disappointed the market on Wednesday but its plan to increase spending on data-center and network infrastructure gave a boost to some stocks.
Arista Networks (ticker: ANET), a provider of networking hardware which counts Meta among its top customers, was a top beneficiary of the plan with its shares climbing nearly 11% on Thursday.
Nvidia (NVDA) was up more than 5%, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) was up more than 7%. Advanced Micro Devices, which last year said that Meta would use its chips in its data centers, climbed around 3.5%.
Facebook-parent Meta (META) had said in its third-quarter earnings that it expects capital spending in 2022 of $32-$33 billion. In 2023 it expects that to rise to $34-$39 billion, driven by investment in data centers, servers, and network infrastructure.
KeyBanc Capital Markets analysts said in a note that Meta’s planned operating and capital spending forecast for 2023 was meaningfully higher than expected, putting pressure on its margins. They added: “Management acknowledged it would like to invest more as economic conditions improve.”
Write to Adam Clark at [email protected] | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=9a34d59decd97ad43fcabf960e5429a224c6723a4b55fad58a8ccd4a1743ce84 | HERITAGE INVESTORS MANAGEMENT - GuruFocus.com | GuruFocus Article or News written by insider and the topic is about: | 2022-10-26T22:01:00 | GuruFocus | HERITAGE INVESTORS MANAGEMENT CORP recently filed their 13F report for the third quarter of 2022, which ended on 2022-09-30.
The 13F report details which stocks were in a guru’s equity portfolio at the end of the quarter, though investors should note that these filings are limited in scope, containing only a snapshot of long positions in U.S.-listed stocks and American depository receipts as of the quarter’s end. They are not required to include international holdings, short positions or other types of investments. Still, even this limited filing can provide valuable information.
7101 WISCONSIN AVENUE BETHESDA, MD 20814
As of the latest 13F report, the guru’s equity portfolio contained 252 stocks valued at a total of $1.99Bil. The top holdings were AAPL(5.79%), MSFT(3.91%), and PANW(2.69%).
According to GuruFocus data, these were HERITAGE INVESTORS MANAGEMENT CORP’s top five trades of the quarter.
Apple Inc
HERITAGE INVESTORS MANAGEMENT CORP reduced their investment in NAS:AAPL by 12,980 shares. The trade had a 0.08% impact on the equity portfolio. During the quarter, the stock traded for an average price of $156.95.
On 10/27/2022, Apple Inc traded for a price of $144.8 per share and a market cap of $2,327.04Bil. The stock has returned -2.12% over the past year.
GuruFocus gives the company a financial strength rating of 6 out of 10 and a profitability rating of 10 out of 10.
In terms of valuation, Apple Inc has a price-earnings ratio of 23.89, a price-book ratio of 40.11, a price-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 1.68, a EV-to-Ebitda ratio of 18.77 and a price-sales ratio of 6.15.
The price-to-GF Value ratio is 0.84, earning the stock a GF Value rank of 6.
McDonald's Corp
HERITAGE INVESTORS MANAGEMENT CORP reduced their investment in NYSE:MCD by 7,013 shares. The trade had a 0.08% impact on the equity portfolio. During the quarter, the stock traded for an average price of $255.59.
On 10/27/2022, McDonald's Corp traded for a price of $265.11 per share and a market cap of $195.05Bil. The stock has returned 11.49% over the past year.
GuruFocus gives the company a financial strength rating of 4 out of 10 and a profitability rating of 8 out of 10.
In terms of valuation, McDonald's Corp has a price-earnings ratio of 32.65, a price-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 6.05, a EV-to-Ebitda ratio of 21.69 and a price-sales ratio of 8.42.
The price-to-GF Value ratio is 1.06, earning the stock a GF Value rank of 5.
NVIDIA Corp
During the quarter, HERITAGE INVESTORS MANAGEMENT CORP bought 12,369 shares of NAS:NVDA for a total holding of 46,450. The trade had a 0.07% impact on the equity portfolio. During the quarter, the stock traded for an average price of $158.09.
On 10/27/2022, NVIDIA Corp traded for a price of $131.76 per share and a market cap of $328.08Bil. The stock has returned -46.05% over the past year.
GuruFocus gives the company a financial strength rating of 8 out of 10 and a profitability rating of 10 out of 10.
In terms of valuation, NVIDIA Corp has a price-earnings ratio of 43.20, a price-book ratio of 13.75, a price-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 1.35, a EV-to-Ebitda ratio of 33.74 and a price-sales ratio of 11.23.
The price-to-GF Value ratio is 0.53, earning the stock a GF Value rank of 8.
PepsiCo Inc
HERITAGE INVESTORS MANAGEMENT CORP reduced their investment in NAS:PEP by 9,035 shares. The trade had a 0.07% impact on the equity portfolio. During the quarter, the stock traded for an average price of $172.33.
On 10/27/2022, PepsiCo Inc traded for a price of $178.88 per share and a market cap of $246.44Bil. The stock has returned 14.15% over the past year.
GuruFocus gives the company a financial strength rating of 5 out of 10 and a profitability rating of 8 out of 10.
In terms of valuation, PepsiCo Inc has a price-earnings ratio of 25.59, a price-book ratio of 12.99, a price-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 6.56, a EV-to-Ebitda ratio of 16.62 and a price-sales ratio of 2.99.
The price-to-GF Value ratio is 1.02, earning the stock a GF Value rank of 5.
Automatic Data Processing Inc
HERITAGE INVESTORS MANAGEMENT CORP reduced their investment in NAS:ADP by 6,047 shares. The trade had a 0.06% impact on the equity portfolio. During the quarter, the stock traded for an average price of $235.93.
On 10/27/2022, Automatic Data Processing Inc traded for a price of $234.97 per share and a market cap of $97.56Bil. The stock has returned 7.74% over the past year.
GuruFocus gives the company a financial strength rating of 6 out of 10 and a profitability rating of 9 out of 10.
In terms of valuation, Automatic Data Processing Inc has a price-earnings ratio of 43.84, a price-book ratio of 30.32, a price-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 4.22, a EV-to-Ebitda ratio of 21.91 and a price-sales ratio of 6.17.
The price-to-GF Value ratio is 1.06, earning the stock a GF Value rank of 3.
Please note, the numbers and facts quoted are as of the writing of this article and may not factor in the latest trading data or company announcements.
Want to provide feedback on this article? Have questions or concerns? Get in touch with us here, or email us at [email protected]!
This article is general in nature and does not represent the opinions of GuruFocus or any of its affiliates. This article is not intended to be financial advice, nor does it constitute investment advice or recommendations. It was written without regard to your individual situation or financial goals. We aim to bring you fundamental, data-driven analysis, The information on this site is in no way guaranteed for completeness, accuracy or in any other way. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=d6e79adabd0f96a7435bb0230039dacf1cb03188eebf5a2e742af58d86372bb2 | Top 5 3rd Quarter Trades of VA - GuruFocus.com | GuruFocus Article or News written by insider and the topic is about: | 2022-10-26T22:01:00 | GuruFocus | VAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORP recently filed their 13F report for the third quarter of 2022, which ended on 2022-09-30.
The 13F report details which stocks were in a guru’s equity portfolio at the end of the quarter, though investors should note that these filings are limited in scope, containing only a snapshot of long positions in U.S.-listed stocks and American depository receipts as of the quarter’s end. They are not required to include international holdings, short positions or other types of investments. Still, even this limited filing can provide valuable information.
666 THIRD AVENUE, 9TH FLOOR NEW YORK, NY 10017
As of the latest 13F report, the guru’s equity portfolio contained 1385 stocks valued at a total of $33.61Bil. The top holdings were NEM(4.14%), GOLD(3.49%), and FNV(2.91%).
According to GuruFocus data, these were VAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORP’s top five trades of the quarter.
NVIDIA Corp
During the quarter, VAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORP bought 1,101,058 shares of NAS:NVDA for a total holding of 5,818,035. The trade had a 0.4% impact on the equity portfolio. During the quarter, the stock traded for an average price of $158.09.
On 10/27/2022, NVIDIA Corp traded for a price of $131.76 per share and a market cap of $328.08Bil. The stock has returned -46.05% over the past year.
GuruFocus gives the company a financial strength rating of 8 out of 10 and a profitability rating of 10 out of 10.
In terms of valuation, NVIDIA Corp has a price-earnings ratio of 43.20, a price-book ratio of 13.75, a price-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 1.35, a EV-to-Ebitda ratio of 33.74 and a price-sales ratio of 11.23.
The price-to-GF Value ratio is 0.53, earning the stock a GF Value rank of 8.
Kellogg Co
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORP reduced their investment in NYSE:K by 1,568,080 shares. The trade had a 0.3% impact on the equity portfolio. During the quarter, the stock traded for an average price of $73.2.
On 10/27/2022, Kellogg Co traded for a price of $75.27 per share and a market cap of $25.60Bil. The stock has returned 26.59% over the past year.
GuruFocus gives the company a financial strength rating of 5 out of 10 and a profitability rating of 8 out of 10.
In terms of valuation, Kellogg Co has a price-earnings ratio of 17.38, a price-book ratio of 6.27, a price-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 3.05, a EV-to-Ebitda ratio of 12.49 and a price-sales ratio of 1.76.
The price-to-GF Value ratio is 1.08, earning the stock a GF Value rank of 3.
Merck & Co Inc
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORP reduced their investment in NYSE:MRK by 1,177,605 shares. The trade had a 0.28% impact on the equity portfolio. During the quarter, the stock traded for an average price of $89.27.
On 10/27/2022, Merck & Co Inc traded for a price of $99.74 per share and a market cap of $252.67Bil. The stock has returned 25.71% over the past year.
GuruFocus gives the company a financial strength rating of 6 out of 10 and a profitability rating of 8 out of 10.
In terms of valuation, Merck & Co Inc has a price-earnings ratio of 15.27, a price-book ratio of 5.84, a price-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 2.00, a EV-to-Ebitda ratio of 11.74 and a price-sales ratio of 4.43.
The price-to-GF Value ratio is 0.93, earning the stock a GF Value rank of 6.
Schlumberger Ltd
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORP reduced their investment in NYSE:SLB by 2,929,402 shares. The trade had a 0.28% impact on the equity portfolio. During the quarter, the stock traded for an average price of $36.26.
On 10/27/2022, Schlumberger Ltd traded for a price of $51.68 per share and a market cap of $73.28Bil. The stock has returned 60.66% over the past year.
GuruFocus gives the company a financial strength rating of 5 out of 10 and a profitability rating of 6 out of 10.
In terms of valuation, Schlumberger Ltd has a price-earnings ratio of 24.85, a price-book ratio of 4.18, a EV-to-Ebitda ratio of 14.48 and a price-sales ratio of 2.81.
The price-to-GF Value ratio is 1.74, earning the stock a GF Value rank of 1.
Valaris Ltd
The guru established a new position worth 1,902,492 shares in NYSE:VAL, giving the stock a 0.28% weight in the equity portfolio. Shares traded for an average price of $47.94 during the quarter.
On 10/27/2022, Valaris Ltd traded for a price of $63.87 per share and a market cap of $4.80Bil. The stock has returned 75.18% over the past year.
GuruFocus gives the company a financial strength rating of 5 out of 10 and a profitability rating of 1 out of 10.
In terms of valuation, Valaris Ltd has a price-earnings ratio of 104.70, a price-book ratio of 4.04, a EV-to-Ebitda ratio of 27.18 and a price-sales ratio of 4.50.
Please note, the numbers and facts quoted are as of the writing of this article and may not factor in the latest trading data or company announcements.
Want to provide feedback on this article? Have questions or concerns? Get in touch with us here, or email us at [email protected]!
This article is general in nature and does not represent the opinions of GuruFocus or any of its affiliates. This article is not intended to be financial advice, nor does it constitute investment advice or recommendations. It was written without regard to your individual situation or financial goals. We aim to bring you fundamental, data-driven analysis, The information on this site is in no way guaranteed for completeness, accuracy or in any other way. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=7b0c269daf3779741772e78663c7e63b3b602e2481cfa60f4cf3ef379da434b7 | 3 Stocks That Could Turn $100 Into $300 (or More) by 2026 | As the bear market continues, let's look for stocks to buy, even with $100. More specifically, let's find stocks that could double or triple. | 2022-10-26T19:45:00 | InvestorPlace | Even in a bear market, investors are always looking for stocks to buy that will generate outsized returns.
The long-term performance of the S&P 500 shows that the index rises in most years However, bear markets do come and go, and when they do, they wreak havoc on investors. Eventually though, this bear market shall pass and investors will reap the reward of buying stocks on massive pullbacks.
Of course, one problem is that we don’t know when the market will bottom or at what price that it will do so. What we do know is that 2022 has been one of the worst years for stocks, bonds and other assets.
Still, the world will continue to spin, technologies will continue to advance and a bull market will eventually return. As a result, investors should be looking for stocks to buy, even if they’re only buying $100 of shares. So here are three stocks that can turn $100 into $300 in the next three years.
|Tickers||Company||Current Price|
|AMD||Advanced Micro Devices||$59|
|TTD||The Trade Desk||$53.65|
|SNAP||Snap||$9.55|
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) is more than two-thirds below its peak. The stock reached a high of $164.46 in November 2021 and a low of $54.57 in October 2022.
For AMD to triple off of its lows, it wouldn’t even need to make new highs. It simply could rebound back to its prior all-time high. From its current levels, a small rally beyond the old high would turn a $100 investment into $300.
AMD is — surprisingly — outperforming Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and has been more insulated from some of the pressures that the latter company is experiencing. While that has only moderately spared AMD’s stock price relative to Nvidia, it bodes well for AMD when demand returns and business begins to boom.
With AMD trading at roughly 16 times its earnings with positive EPS and revenue growth to boot (and now solid free cash flow following its acquisition of Xilinx), the long-term outlook of AMD is attractive.
The Trade Desk (TTD)
I could make an argument for buying Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL, NASDAQ:GOOG) after it has taken a beating so far this year. However, for it to triple, its market capitalization would have to go from $1.25 trillion to $3.75 trillion. I’m bullish on the long-term outlook of Alphabet, but I’m not that bullish on it over the next 13 quarters.
However, one stock that very well could turn $100 into $300 in the next few years is The Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD). That’s particularly true if the weakness of Alphabet and others is being experienced by The Trade Desk.
The Trade Desk was not hurt by ad weakness last quarter like many other companies were. But that doesn’t mean it won’t experience such weakness this quarter. For TTD to turn a $100 stake into $300, it would help if the stock first revisits its current 52-week low near $40 as a result of weakness in its ad business. Then, if the stock jumps back to its 52-week high, it will have tripled. That doesn’t seem like too much to ask, considering that the company has such a good business.
Unlike most growth stocks, The Trade Desk is profitable. It also generates robust revenue growth, as analysts, on average, expect its top line to jump 32% growth this year. For each of the next three years, the average estimate calls for the company to deliver 24% to 28% growth.
Snap (SNAP)
Last but not least, we have Snap (NYSE:SNAP). By far the lowest quality name on this list, Snap has been pulverized, falling 91% from its all-time high to the low that it reached earlier this month. The company’s recent earnings report disappointed Wall Street, causing the shares to crater below their 2020 pandemic low.
After bottoming at $7.33, the stock has rebounded sharply. While SNAP could triple if it rallies to $28.75 from its current levels, a retest of the low would make a triple much easier. After falling back to the low, the stock would need to reach just $22 to triple.
In any regard, let’s not mince our words here: A stock doesn’t fall 90% because the company is performing well. Obviously Snap is vulnerable to a further deceleration of ad-spending growth, and its financials are not as strong as those of Alphabet and other ad companies.
Still, this stock went from its Covid low of $7.89 to more than $80 at its high. If it advance by even half that much from its current levels — by climbing to $41.67 — that would equate to a 468% rebound by Snap stock.
On the date of publication, Bret Kenwell held a long position in TTD. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=b9c1c402aff814280a208b5496e54c389ee19f0544c88285482bbde1cf150dae | Lockheed, Nvidia, and Others Have Pricing Power. Their Profit Margins Prove It. | Corporate profit margins are a hot topic on third-quarter earnings calls, with inflation impacting consumers and businesses alike. | 2022-10-26T18:00:00 | MarketWatch | Corporate profit margins are a hot topic on third-quarter earnings calls, with inflation impacting consumers and businesses alike. It’s also an issue for the coming year, should an economic slowdown force companies to offer discounts to move inventory.
Firms with the ability to keep their profit margins intact or growing through the uncertainty should see their stocks outperform.
Companies can achieve pricing power in several different ways. A business can sell a good or service that is vital to customers or limited in supply, giving them no option but to pay up. To put it in economic terms, the product has low price elasticity. That could be gasoline at the only station for miles, toilet paper at the grocery store, or accounting services during tax season.
The fewer direct competitors a company has, the greater its ability to set prices. A strong brand that has particular affinity or loyalty from customers can also lead to greater pricing power. Think of the typically higher price per unit for Procter & Gamble’s (ticker: PG) Tide laundry detergent compared with a store brand.
A company can also innovate and improve its products, increasing prices as it rolls out the upgraded offerings. If the price hikes exceed the cost of the improvements, that’s pricing power. It’s common in new versions of software, pharmaceuticals and medical devices, semiconductors, and other high tech goods and services.
Finally, companies can expand their profit margins by becoming more efficient and productive, or by leveraging economies of scale. That brings down the cost of goods sold per unit produced, and increases profits without raising prices.
Barron’s screened the S&P 500 for companies that grew their gross margin (revenue minus the cost of goods sold, divided by revenue) from 2020 to 2021 as the economy rebounded, but also had rising, positive gross margins in at least the three years before the Covid-19 pandemic.
Those that were best able to demonstrate pricing power in a 2% annual inflation environment should be better set up to do it when inflation is running in the high single digits, too. The companies must also have been free cash flow positive in 2020 and 2021, demonstrating their businesses’ resilience through an economic downturn.
The screen yielded 23 names. As with any screen, it’s a blunt instrument that serves as a starting point for further analysis. Here is the list:
Several healthcare firms make the list, including Merck (MRK), Zoetis (ZTS), Mettler-Toledo International (MTD), and PerkinElmer (PKI). Their pharmaceutical, medical device, or related products and services tend to be differentiated from the competition and nondiscretionary for most customers. That gives the companies pricing power and the ability to maintain profit margins even in an inflationary or decelerating-growth environment.
Semiconductor firms Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) also pass the screen, thanks to their steady margin growth over the past few years. But the outlook isn’t as bright. The chip industry is highly cyclical, with periods of shortage and high pricing typically followed by inventory gluts and forced discounting.
Nvidia and Broadcom have long-term secular tailwinds, but they’re on the wrong side of the inventory cycle today. The stocks are down 55% and 31%, respectively, so far this year.
Altria Group (MO) sells cigarettes and other tobacco products, including Marlboros. Addictive products give the firm pricing power.
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The screen yields several industrials, including Rockwell Automation (ROK), Roper Technologies (ROP), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and Eaton (ETN).
“We operate a portfolio of market-leading businesses in defensible niches,” said Roper CEO Neil Hunn on the company’s third-quarter earnings call on Wednesday morning. “Each of our businesses has high levels of recurring revenue, strong margin, and competes based on customer intimacy, which yields highly resilient organic growth rates.”
Roper is a sprawling conglomerate with hands in dozens of areas across engineered products and software services.
Rockwell, which makes factory equipment, is increasing prices alongside its input costs. “We have very strong pricing power in the market, thanks to our highly differentiated offerings,” said CEO Blake Moret earlier this year. “We’re seeing good price realization as annual customer agreements renew, and we are taking action to get quicker realization of future price increases.”
Other companies to pass the screen include McDonald’s (MCD), Fiserv (FISV), Gartner (IT), and Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT).
Write to Nicholas Jasinski at [email protected] | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=377f33dedf1029e1a981d884f3b05fca0d9ca7c1150c71fe6c621660bd8db043 | Apple Earnings Are Decent in Otherwise Terrible Week for Tech | Apple's latest quarterly results were slightly better than expected, but sales in its key iPhone segment were a bit disappointing. | 2022-10-26T17:01:00 | MarketWatch | Apple reported slightly better-than-expected results for its September quarter.
iPhone sales came in lighter than expected, but they were offset by a strong quarter for the company’s Mac unit.
The stock was up 0.6% in premarket trading Friday.
Total sales for the quarter were $90.1 billion, up 8 percent year over year, with earnings up 4%, to $1.29 a share. Wall Street analysts had forecast sales of $88.9 billion with profits of $1.27 a share. Apple CFO Luca Maestri said revenues were reduced by more than 600 basis points by foreign exchange headwinds.
Apple reported iPhone sales of $42.6 billion, up 9.7%, but slightly below analysts’ forecast for $43.4 billion.
Mac sales were $11.5 billion, up 25%, and well ahead of the Street’s forecast of $9.3 billion, benefitting from a much better supply chain situation than the previous quarter, the introduction of new models, and increased sales into the channel. In the June quarter, Mac sales were down 10%. CEO Tim Cook said on the call that “silicon related supply constraints were not significant in the quarter.”
Meanwhile, iPad sales were $7.2 billion, down 13%, and shy of the Wall Street consensus view of $7.8 billion. Sales in the wearables, home and accessories segment were $9.7 billion, up 10%, and above the Wall Street consensus of $9 billion.
Services revenue was $19.2 billion, up 5%, but short of analysts’ forecast for $20.1 billion; Maestri noted that both gaming and advertising softened on macroeconomic weakness. The company also noted that it now has more than 900 million subscribers to its various services, up from 860 million one quarter earlier, and up 155 million over the last 12 months.
Apple said sales were up 8% in the Americas, almost 10% in Europe, and 6% in China. Japan sales were down about 5%. For the rest of Asia, sales were up 23%.
Gross margin was 42.2%, towards the high end of the company’s guidance range of 41.5% to 42.5%.
Apple stopped providing detailed financial guidance early in the pandemic, and isn’t likely to resume the practice soon. But Maestri provided some generally cautious commentary on the December quarter. He said revenue will decelerate from the September quarter, in part reflecting 10 percentage points of headwind from foreign exchange. Maestri also said Mac sales would be down substantially in the quarter from a year ago, given a difficult comparison with when new models based on the M1 processor were introduced. He also said services revenue would grow, but would face some macro impact on both advertising and gaming.
Maestri said gross margin in the December quarter would range from 42.5% to 43.5%. Wall Street ahead of the call projected revenue of $126.8 billion, up 2% from a year ago, with profits of $2.12 a share.
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Apple noted that the fourth quarter this year will consist of 14 weeks, rather than the usual 13, which should add a few days of sale and some additional operating expense as well.
Apple said it bought back $25.2 billion in stock in the quarter, and finished the quarter with $49 billion in net cash.
For the full fiscal year ended Sept. 25, the company reported sales of $394.3 billion, with profits of $6.15 a share. Apple reported full year iPhone revenue of $205.5 billion, $40.2 billion in Mac sales, $29.3 billion in iPad sales, $41.2 billion in sales for wearables, home and accessories, and $78.1 billion in services revenue.
Write to Eric J. Savitz at [email protected] | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=0ba43084700f5c4959131b389141d30654cd524f39b5ef380e96302c89835528 | The Trouble For Big Tech Stocks In 2 Charts, Part Deux | This month (so far) has been the worst for the Nasdaq since the stock market was in the throes of the Great Financial Crisis back in 2008. | 2022-10-26T16:39:00 | SeekingAlpha | The Trouble For Big Tech Stocks In 2 Charts, Part Deux
Summary
- This month (so far) has been the worst for the Nasdaq since the stock market was in the throes of the Great Financial Crisis back in 2008.
- Put the market caps together of Microsoft, Apple, NVIDIA, Tesla, and Amazon and compare that figure with their aggregate free cash flow and you get a multiple of over 50 times, down from nearly 70 at the start of the year.
- If the Fed follows through on its commitment to normalize the balance sheet over the next few years, then this reversion in valuations has only just begun.
“This month (so far) has been the worst for the Nasdaq since the stock market was in the throes of the Great Financial Crisis back in 2008. And it shouldn’t be hard to understand what is plaguing the Big Tech stocks that make up the bulk of this index. In addition to capital flows, macro economic trends, risk appetites and insider activity, all of which warned of the current weakness in stock prices well ahead of time, there are two major bearish forces at work.” I wrote that six months ago and, if you change “month” in the first sentence to “year,” it is just as true today as it was back then.
Put the market caps together of Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), NVIDIA (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), and Amazon (AMZN) and compare that figure with their aggregate free cash flow and you get a multiple of over 50 times, down from nearly 70 at the start of the year. This historic level of overvaluation was only made possible by massive money printing on the part of the Fed that supported both cash flows and the multiple applied to them. Now that inflation is raging, however, the money printer has been shifted into reverse and that’s already having a visible impact (both “bearish forces,” the reversion in valuations and falling liquidity, have been consolidated into one chart this time below).
Furthermore, if the Fed follows through on its commitment to normalize the balance sheet over the next few years, then this reversion in valuations has only just begun. In fact, price-to-free cash flow ratios could still halve from their current levels. Of course, if free cash flow (the denominator in the valuation ratio) continues to grow as it has over the past decade, this process will be much less painful than if free cash flow also goes into reverse. Worryingly, that reversal in cash flows is actually what has happened over the past year in which growth went from double-digits positive to double-digits negative.
As I wrote in the prior piece, “Considering the nature of the pandemic and the stimulus enacted as a result, it’s not unreasonable to think there was a significant pulling forward of demand for Big Tech products and services that will now leave a vacuum of demand for a prolonged period of time.” We’re just now beginning to find out how much of a vacuum of demand now lies in front of us. And a Fed-induced recession resulting from the rapid rise in interest rates and draining of liquidity isn’t likely to improve things in that regard.
Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
This article was written by
Comments (4) | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=739186bd7e08949c3ede8dbe1dcf3b1bee297c32ad05dc2534ac599f6a056ef2 | Nvidia Leads Chip Stocks Higher on Meta’s Planned Tech Binge | (Bloomberg) -- Buried in a gloomy earnings report from Meta Platforms Inc. was a bit of good news -- just not for the Facebook parent company.Most Read from BloombergNew Covid Boosters Aren’t Better Than Old Ones, Study FindsAdidas Cuts Ties With Ye, Absorbing €250 Million Profit HitHere Are the Most Expensive US Cities for Renters Right NowBlinken Warns of Consequences If Nuclear Weapon Used in UkraineThe shares of companies that supply data centers gained after Meta Platforms said it’s plannin | 2022-10-26T14:32:21 | Yahoo | Nvidia Leads Chip Stocks Higher on Meta’s Planned Tech Binge
(Bloomberg) -- Buried in a gloomy earnings report from Meta Platforms Inc. was a bit of good news -- just not for the Facebook parent company.
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The shares of companies that supply data centers gained after Meta Platforms said it’s planning to spend even more on components next year as it invests in infrastructure to support its push into digitally immersive experiences.
In its third quarter earnings report, Meta Platforms projected capital spending of $34 billion to $39 billion in 2023, up from $30 billion to $34 billion this year. The comments sent Nvidia Corp. and Marvell Technology Inc. up more than 3% in postmarket trading.
Arista Networks Inc., which makes networking gear used in data centers and counts Meta as one of its biggest customers, is up more than 7%.
“Amidst increased question/concern that Meta would significantly reduce their forward capex guide in conjunction with third quarter results, tonight we got the absolute opposite,” Wells Fargo analysts led by Aaron Rakers said in a report.
While Meta’s spending plans are a boon to its suppliers, it was received poorly by investors skeptical of the high costs associated with its strategic shift. The stock dropped 14% after the company projected weaker-than-expected sales in the current quarter.
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©2022 Bloomberg L.P. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=cf64fc116cb7b26efe5553d8f8af6649cf614d20760b591c77d0b63a6ebeeea4 | NVIDIA Corp. stock falls Wednesday, underperforms market | Shares of NVIDIA Corp. slid 2.75% to $128.96 Wednesday, on what proved to be an all-around mixed trading session for the stock market, with the Dow Jones... | 2022-10-26T10:14:00 | MarketWatch | Shares of NVIDIA Corp.
NVDA,
+0.37%
slid 2.75% to $128.96 Wednesday, on what proved to be an all-around mixed trading session for the stock market, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-0.43%
rising 0.01% to 31,839.11 and the S&P 500 Index
SPX,
-0.53%
falling 0.74% to 3,830.60. The stock's fall snapped a seven-day winning streak. NVIDIA Corp. closed $217.51 below its 52-week high ($346.47), which the company reached on November 22nd.
The stock demonstrated a mixed performance when compared to some of its competitors Wednesday, as Microsoft Corp.
MSFT,
+0.34%
fell 7.72% to $231.32, Intel Corp.
INTC,
+1.14%
fell 0.73% to $27.21, and Texas Instruments Inc.
TXN,
-1.96%
fell 2.65% to $157.87. Trading volume (52.8 M) remained 6.7 million below its 50-day average volume of 59.5 M.
Editor's Note: This story was auto-generated by Automated Insights, an automation technology provider, using data from Dow Jones and FactSet. See our market data terms of use. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=e40b0e623ccd0d2d1f1fd8c8cc265005bc7a6baee887c2bcaff84de57df8cc29 | Data-center suppliers get boost as Facebook parent Meta hikes capex for AI | Shares of data-center equipment providers jumped in the extended session Wednesday after Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. undefined hiked its capital... | 2022-10-26T10:06:38 | MarketWatch | Shares of data-center equipment providers jumped in the extended session Wednesday after Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. hiked its capital expenditure budget. Nvidia Corp. shares rallied 3.9% after hours, while Advanced Micro devices Inc. shares rose 2.4%, Marvell Technology Inc. shares surged 3.8%, and Intel Corp. shares rose 1%. In its earnings report, Meta said it expects 2022 capex of $32 billion to $33 billion, up from the prior range of $30 billion to $34 billion. For 2023, Meta expects capex in the range of $34 billion to $39 billion, "driven by our investments in data centers, servers, and network infrastructure,"... | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=7d433f0e0b4526b998304cfcdb2e9ce3cb8d094cfdb375d4d7df13f070b17594 | KLA Corp. posts beat-and-raise quarter like others in the chip-equipment sector as long-term goals underscored | KLA Corp. rose in the extended session Wednesday after it became the third chipmaking-equipment manufacturer to post a beat-and-raise quarter this earnings... | 2022-10-26T09:30:00 | MarketWatch | KLA Corp. rose in the extended session Wednesday after it became the third chipmaking-equipment manufacturer to post a beat-and-raise quarter this earnings season, amid a quarter rife with profit warnings from other chip-related companies, as the segment focuses on long-term capacity building.
KLA KLAC forecast earnings of $6.30 to $7.70 a share on revenue of $2.65 billion to $2.95 billion for the fiscal second quarter, underscoring the “resiliency” of the business amid a sudden glut in certain chips, the company said. Analysts surveyed by FactSet estimated $6.11 a share on revenue of $2.56 billion for the second quarter.
Last week, rivals Lam Research Corp. LRCX and ASML Holding NV ASML both reported beat-and-raise quarters showing strength in the chipmaking-equipment manufacturing sector.
KLA Chief Executive Rick Wallace told analysts on the call that it is little exposed to sales of cutting-edge technology to China that U.S. regulators are restricting.
“Specific to KLA, a meaningful amount of our business in China is focused on legacy node investment, which is not the focus of the recent export restrictions,” Wallace told analysts on the call. “However, our system and service revenue will be adversely impacted going forward as we are unable to provide systems and support to certain customers for certain end uses.”
KLA shares rose as much as 5% after hours, and were last up 1.5%, following a 0.5% rise to close at $306.40. Year-to-date, KLA shares have fallen 29%, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index SOX has dropped 40% and the S&P 500 index SPX has declined 20%.
Recognizing that chip companies, especially memory chip maker, are cutting capex budgets, as seen most recently with memory chip makers SK Hynix Inc. KR:000660 and Micron Technology Inc. MU, and third-party fab Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. TSM, KLA, like Texas Instruments Inc. TXN, is focusing on long-term investments as demand recedes.
“Long-term growth for the semiconductor equipment industry continues due to the prioritization of R&D investment at the leading edge, continued investment in legacy nodes and growth in enabling technologies such as advanced packaging,” Wallace told analysts.
That was evidenced in Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. META earnings, where the company hiked its capex budget in its long-term investment to build out its metaverse ambitions, and shares of data-center suppliers like Nvidia Corp. NVDA, Advanced Micro devices Inc. AMD, Marvell Technology Inc. MRVL , and Intel Corp. INTC rallied after hours.
KLA reported fiscal first-quarter net income of $1.03 billion, or $7.20 a share, compared with $1.07 billion, or $6.96 a share, in the year-ago period. The company reported adjusted earnings, which exclude stock-based compensation expenses and other items, of $7.06 a share, compared with $4.64 a share in the year-ago period.
Milpitas, Calif.-based KLA’s revenue rose to $2.72 billion from $2.08 billion in the year-ago quarter.
Analysts had forecast adjusted earnings of $6.22 a share on revenue of $2.6 billion, based on KLA’s forecast of $5.70 to $6.80 a share on revenue of $2.48 billion to $2.73 billion. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=337246a030f2214f23c1174b348aec4e4b86e4b4af10a808d011514dcfa46f23 | Mobileye pops more than 37% in market debut after spinning out of Intel | Shares of self-driving car technology company Mobileye climbed in their first day of trading on Wednesday after Intel sold stock to the public. | 2022-10-26T06:19:23 | CNBC | - Shares of self-driving car technology company Mobileye climbed in their first day of trading on Wednesday after Intel sold stock to the public.
- Intel bought the Israeli company for $15.3 billion in 2017, and said it would use proceeds from the IPO to build more chip factories.
- The IPO valuation of about $17 billion was far below Intel's earlier expectations.
Mobileye shares closed up more than 37% in their stock market debut on Wednesday after the maker of technology for self-driving cars was spun out of Intel.
In a year that's seen no significant tech IPOs in the U.S., Mobileye offers investors an opportunity to get in on area of growth. But it's not a new name for the market.
related investing news
Mobileye was publicly traded before Intel bought the Israeli company in 2017 for $15.3 billion. At its IPO price of $21, Mobileye was valued at just $17 billion, resulting in minimal gains for Intel thus far. The stock, trading under the ticker MBLY, rose to $27.85 on Wednesday.
Intel will retain control of Mobileye and hold over 750 million shares of Class B stock, which has 10 times the voting power of Class A stock. The company said in an Oct. 18 filing that it expected the offering to be priced between $18 and $20 per share.
The IPO raised $861 million, and the move to list Mobileye on the Nasdaq is part of Intel's broader strategy to turn around its core semiconductor business, which has lagged behind rivals like AMD and Nvidia in recent years. Intel said it would use some funds from the Mobileye listing to build more chip factories as it embarks on a capital-intensive process to become a foundry for other chipmakers.
However, Mobileye's market cap is far below Intel's earlier expectations, the latest sign that tech investors have cooled on IPOs and have readjusted their valuations from the frothy days of the past half-decade as interest rates rise and the economy slows.
Founded in 1999, Mobileye has partnered with Audi, BMW, Volkswagen, GM, and Ford to develop advanced driving and safety features such as driver assist and lane-keeping using the company's "EyeQ" camera, chips, and software. Mobileye CEO Amnon Shashua said in the IPO filing that 50 companies are currently using the company's technology across 800 vehicle models.
Revenue in the second quarter jumped 41% to $460 million. Net loss narrowed to $7 million from $21 million.
Class A stock is what investors will buy in the IPO, and Intel expected there to be 46.26 million Class A shares outstanding, with the potential for more if the underwriters decide to exercise their option to purchase additional shares.
Intel shares were down slightly on Wednesday and have lost about 47% of their value this year, while the Nasdaq is down 29%.
— CNBC's Kif Leswing contributed to this report.
WATCH: Intel plans to cut thousands of jobs amid PC slowdown | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=fbe39015b6b730af91864a7e6e4471b48315497a37e950f9f4ce4764c5acd4f2 | 2 Growth Stocks Down 60% From Their Highs That Could Be Future Steals | The buying decisions that investors make right now could pay off in droves in even a few years. History has taught investors that from every downturn and crash, there is always a recovery to follow. Warren Buffett always warns investors, "Never bet against America." | 2022-10-26T06:07:00 | Yahoo | 2 Growth Stocks Down 60% From Their Highs That Could Be Future Steals
The buying decisions that investors make right now could pay off in droves in even a few years. History has taught investors that from every downturn and crash, there is always a recovery to follow. Warren Buffett always warns investors, "Never bet against America." | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=5e86040b616dbdbaa10967a95d14f7af28143721af002cae306458a3c165f0ab | Nvidia: Reversing Course, Now Bullish Due To Data Center Demand | Nvidia's gaming sales are now expected to decline about 60% or more than $2B from the peak level just two quarters ago. Click here to see why we move NVDA stock to a buy. | 2022-10-26T06:04:29 | SeekingAlpha | Nvidia: Reversing Course, Now Bullish Due To Data Center Demand
Summary
- Our thesis played out followed by a sharp correction in mid-22; we are now moving Nvidia to a buy.
- We previously called out exposure risk to crypto-mining-related GPU sales. We expected the exposure to result in a significant downside for the company as ETH shifts to Proof of Stake.
- Nvidia's gaming sales are now expected to decline about 60% or more than $2B from the peak level just two quarters ago.
- Our bullish sentiment is based on our belief that data center demand will significantly outperform expectations.
- Despite the recent U.S. DoC export restriction, we expect Nvidia's data center GPU sales to outperform expectations due to new product cycles and inventory hoarding by other Chinese customers.
Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) shares are down about 56% over the past year, and we believe it is time to move the stock to a buy. NVDA has had a rough year, to say the least, with a significant GPU crash and a harsh macroeconomic environment. We believe the stock is forming a bottom and expect to witness a significant rally as data center demand ramps up. While we believe the stock can remain very volatile in the near term, we think longer-term investors should begin to look for entry points for the stock.
We were previously sell-rated on NVDA based on our belief that the company was highly exposed to crypto-related GPU sales. We expected a significant gaming downside as Ethereum switched from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake. Consistent with our belief, the company saw significantly weakened GPU demand. We expect this to continue as macroeconomic headwinds persist and local currency devaluation pressures the consumer gaming demand. Our bullish sentiment is based on our belief that the data center segment will pick up gaming slack. We expect data center demand to significantly outperform expectations due to new product cycles and inventory hoarding by Chinese customers that are not included in the entity list. We believe NVDA provides an attractive entry point now as the gaming downside has been priced in for the most part and as we witness the data center segment becoming a new growth catalyst.
Data centers to take center stage
Data center revenues comprise more than 50% of NVDA's total revenue. We expect this percentage to increase as data center demand ramps up. Despite the recent U.S. restrictions on DoC exports, we believe NVDA's data center GPU sales will rally due to new product cycles and inventory hoarding.
Let's backtrack and explain how NVDA falls into the "tech wars" between the U.S. and China. The U.S.'s recent restrictions halt the sale of data center products to China. The restrictions are expected to harm NVDA' s revenue and other U.S. semiconductors, specifically Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). NVDA is heavily exposed to sales in China; around 26% of NVDA's geographic revenue was derived from China in the fiscal year of 2022. Despite this, we believe NVDA data center demand to increase significantly. As the U.S. restrictions materialize, we expect to see significant inventory hoarding by other Chinese customers that are not included in the entity list. We believe the inventory build-up will continue regardless of weakening consumer spending, as the supply-demand dynamics of customers are irrelevant when it comes to hoarding.
In addition to the inventory hoarding, we believe data center demand will increase as the new product cycle rolls out. NVDA's data center segment grew 61% Y/Y in the company's 2Q22 earnings report. We expect further growth for the segment and believe it'll become NVDA's new bread and butter.
Gaming weakness not washed out
NVDA continues to see weak gaming demand, and we expect this to continue towards 1H23. NVDA's gaming sales are expected to decline about 60% or more than $2B from the peak level two quarters ago. While we had previously been concerned about the gaming segment due to its exposure to crypto-mining-related GPU sales, we now believe the weakness has multiple facets. We believe current macroeconomic pressures and local currency devaluation will likely put additional pressure on the consumer gaming demand. NVDA's data center segment has taken first place as the primary revenue stream for the company in 1Q22. We believe the data center segment outperformed due to gaming weakness but now believe the data center itself will experience demand tailwinds.
The following graph outlines NVDA's revenue by segment.
Valuation
NVDA is not cheap. The stock is trading at 10.7x EV/C2023 sales compared to the peer group average of 3.8x. On a P/E basis, the stock is trading at 30.8x C2023 EPS $4.27. We believe data center demand tailwinds will offset gaming weakness and recommend long-term investors buy the stock. The following chart illustrates the semiconductor peer group valuation.
Word on Wall Street
Wall Street is bullish on the stock. Of the 44 analysts covering the stock, 31 are buy-rated, and 13 are hold-rated. We share Wall Street's bullish sentiment on NVDA. The stock is currently trading at $132. The median and mean price targets are $190 and $191, respectively, with a significant upside of 44-45%. The following chart indicates NVDA stock's sell-side ratings and price targets:
What to do with the stock:
While we were previously bearish on the stock, we believe the winds have changed for NVDA. We expect to see demand for NVDA's data centers significantly improve. While we believe gaming weakness will continue, we move the stock to a buy. We believe NVDA stock presents an attractive entry point at current levels.
This article was written by
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Comments (24)
So good luck with that.
So the Chinese will still buy. And yes they are hoarding now That's good it gives Nvidia time to adjust.
Nvidia just released their new State of the art Ada Lovelace GeForce RTX 4090 graphics card. They're most expensive card at $1,599. It was sold out in 2 hours and United States and UK.
So there is a high demand for the new graphics cards.
Regarding this, You didn't provide your estimated figure. Moreover, you only mentioned that yoy data center revenue is up 60%, but you didn't mention that quarterly sequential growth is only 2%. In order to be convincing, I think you need to support a projected data center growth rate that is so high that it can outweigh the 60% shrinkage in the gaming/crypto section, despite only growing 2% a quarter lately. That's a tall order.
So the Chinese will still buy. And yes they are hoarding now That's good it gives Nvidia time to adjust.
Nvidia just released their new State of the art Ada Lovelace GeForce RTX 4090 graphics card. They're most expensive card at $1,599. It was sold out in 2 hours and United States and UK.
So there is a high demand for the new graphics cards.
Pre-orders for new RTX 4090 boards we're open this week and sold out within 2 hours in the United States and UK at $1599.
Nvidia's most expensive gaming cards this is a good sign for increased Revenue in the gaming division.
The new Ada Lovelace GPUs are a new generation of GeForce graphics cards in the beginning of a new product life cycle for gaming. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=ed0e0ac49c16530e94c3889fbb9e2897e5975564c44f855ba3dbb305bbfcb4fe | 2 Tech Stocks You Can Buy and Hold for the Next Decade | With that broader outlook in mind, let's look at tech stocks that should be setting sales records in 10 or more years. Read on for some good reasons to buy Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE). Nvidia's latest earnings results demonstrate this process at work. | 2022-10-26T05:49:00 | Yahoo | 2 Tech Stocks You Can Buy and Hold for the Next Decade
With that broader outlook in mind, let's look at tech stocks that should be setting sales records in 10 or more years. Read on for some good reasons to buy Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE). Nvidia's latest earnings results demonstrate this process at work. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=74a4c39afddb0d4011865e6741247864d1aad50706c1fde1714b502ac443fc36 | 11 Best Metaverse Stocks to Buy | In this article, we will be taking a look at the 11 best metaverse stocks to buy. To skip our detailed analysis of these stocks and the rise of the metaverse, you can go directly to see the 5 Best Metaverse Stocks to Buy. With the rise of the Internet, many other new developments have […] | 2022-10-26T05:45:45 | Yahoo | 11 Best Metaverse Stocks to Buy
In this article, we will be taking a look at the 11 best metaverse stocks to buy. To skip our detailed analysis of these stocks and the rise of the metaverse, you can go directly to see the 5 Best Metaverse Stocks to Buy.
With the rise of the Internet, many other new developments have come to the forefront. This includes the rise of the metaverse, which is a hypothetical iteration of the Internet as a single, universal, and immersive virtual world. Such a world includes the use of virtual reality and augmented reality technology, to facilitate its growth and development. Slowly but surely, the metaverse has developed itself into an industry in its own right, offering investors a lucrative investment opportunity in the market. According to a US Global Investors report published in December 2021, Grayscale Investments estimates that the metaverse offers a $1 trillion revenue opportunity as it was then.
Stocks such as Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META), NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), and Roblox Corporation (NYSE:RBLX) have swiftly begun joining the ranks of the metaverse.
According to a Deloitte report, the share price of Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) rose in the first quarter of 2022 after it announced its metaverse business and saw a breakthrough in its cloud business. Major Chinese companies such as Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) and Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ:BIDU) are also announcing ambitious bets on the metaverse industry.
Pixabay/Public Domain
Our Methodology
We analyzed the tech industry and picked 11 companies that are investing in the metaverse sector. These companies are expected to benefit from the explosive growth in the metaverse industry in the near future. These stocks have long-term growth catalysts and positive ratings from the Wall Street. They are also popular among the 895 hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey as of the end of the June quarter.
Best Metaverse Stocks to Buy
11. Matterport, Inc. (NASDAQ:MTTR)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 7
Matterport, Inc. (NASDAQ:MTTR) is a spatial data company focusing on the digitization of the built world. The company offers a 3D data platform under the name Matterport digital twins, to enable the design, building, operation, promotion, and comprehension of spaces. This program is among the most prominent metaverse and real-world concepts implemented by companies today.
On August 16, Gal Munda at Wolfe Research initiated coverage of Matterport, Inc. (NASDAQ:MTTR) shares with a Peer Perform rating.
Seven hedge funds were long Matterport, Inc. (NASDAQ:MTTR) in the second quarter, with a total stake value of $22.6 million. In comparison, 12 hedge funds were long the stock in the previous quarter, with a total stake value of $52.6 million.
Miller Value Partners, an investment management firm, mentioned Matterport, Inc. (NASDAQ:MTTR) in its fourth-quarter 2021 investor letter. Here's what the firm said:
“Matterport Inc. (MTTR) continued to be a strong contributor during the quarter after Matterport’s ability to contribute to the building of the metaverse was brought to light. The company reported 3Q results that missed consensus due to unexpected supply constraints and labor shortage in its capture services. The company reported total sales of $27.7M below consensus of $29.1M but with gross profit beating coming in at $15.2M versus $15.1M expected leading to an EPS loss of -$0.06 slightly better than consensus of -$0.07. The company lowered full-year revenue guidance to $107-110M down from $120-126M previously while also lowering FY22 topline guidance to 50% growth from 65% at the time of the PIPE transaction due to continuing supply constraints and labor shortage.”
Matterport, Inc. (NASDAQ:MTTR), like Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META), NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), and Roblox Corporation (NYSE:RBLX), is among the top metaverse stocks hedge funds are piling into today.
10. Unity Software Inc. (NYSE:U)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 23
Unity Software Inc. (NYSE:U) is an information technology company working to create and operate an interactive real-time 3D content platform. The company's platform provides software solutions to create, run, and monetize interactive, real-time 2D and 3D content, making it a pure metaverse play in the market. It serves content creators and developers, alongside artists, designers, engineers, and architects.
Bernie McTernan at Needham initiated coverage of shares of Unity Software Inc. (NYSE:U) on October 7 with a Buy rating. The analyst also placed a $50 price target on the stock.
This August, Unity Software Inc. (NYSE:U) forecasted its third-quarter revenue growing from the year-ago figure. It reported a revenue forecast range of $315 million-$335 million, representing an expected increase in third-quarter revenue of 22%, in comparison to the previous figure of $273.6 million reported in the third quarter of 2021. The company also commented that it was prepared for and committed to its acquisition of ironSource, worth about $4.4 billion. In the second quarter of 2022, Unity Software Inc. (NYSE:U) had an EPS of -$0.18, beating estimates by $0.03.
There were 23 hedge funds long Unity Software Inc. (NYSE:U) in the second quarter with a total stake value of $1.9 billion.
9. Roblox Corporation (NYSE:RBLX)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 38
Roblox Corporation (NYSE:RBLX) is a developer and operator of an online entertainment platform, based in San Mateo, California. The company offers Roblox Studio, a free toolset enabling developers and creators to build, publish, and operate 3D experiences and other content. The company also offers Roblox Client, an application allowing its users to explore the 3D digital world, among more. Since it offers a virtual world independent of virtual reality or augmented reality technology, it is considered to be one of the top stocks for early entry into the metaverse.
Stifel's Drew Crum holds a Buy rating on Roblox Corporation (NYSE:RBLX) shares as of October 19. The analyst also placed a $48 price target on the stock.
This October, analysts at Needham raised their bookings and adjusted EBITDA estimates on Roblox Corporation (NYSE:RBLX) in light of the company's September data, leading to its shares skyrocketing. The company's September data showed bookings between $212 million and $219 million, and a 23% year-over-year rise in its daily active users, bringing the number of these users up to 57.8 million. Analyst Bernie McTernan at Needham consequently raised his adjusted EBITDA estimates on Roblox Corporation (NYSE:RBLX) for the third and fourth quarters by 6% and 12% in light of these results, while also boosting bookings estimates for the fourth quarter to $852 million, up from the previous estimate of $824 million.
Catherine Wood's ARK Investment Management was the largest stakeholder in Roblox Corporation (NYSE:RBLX) in the second quarter, holding 8.5 million shares worth $303.7 million. In total, 38 hedge funds were long the stock, with a total stake value of $1.4 billion.
8. Autodesk, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADSK)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 53
Autodesk, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADSK) is an application software company that provides 3D design, engineering, and entertainment software and services across the globe. The company provides AutoCAD Civil 3D, which is a surveying, design, analysis, and documentation solution for civil engineering. It is also partnering with Epic Games to prepare its design software for the metaverse.
A Buy rating was reiterated on shares of Autodesk, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADSK) by analyst Gregg Moskowitz at Mizuho on September 29. The analyst also placed a $240 price target on the stock.
This September, Autodesk, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADSK) was named one of the best above-consensus stocks by Credit Suisse's Product Manager, Andrew St. Pierre. In August, shares of Autodesk, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADSK) also gained by 9% after the company reported its second-quarter results and raised its full-year forecast for adjusted earnings. The company's adjusted EPS forecast now stands at $6.52-$6.71, while the consensus is $6.59. The previous adjusted EPS forecast offered by the company was $6.43-6.66.
Our hedge fund data shows 53 hedge funds long Autodesk, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADSK) in the second quarter and 50 hedge funds long the stock in the previous quarter. Their total stake values were $1.4 billion and $1.9 billion, respectively.
Aristotle Capital Management, LLC, an investment management company, mentioned Autodesk, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADSK) in its second-quarter 2022 investor letter. Here's what the firm said:
“Headquartered in Northern California and founded in 1982, Autodesk, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADSK) produces software that allows companies to design and model their products and/or projects. The company is the global industry standard for computer-aided design in the architecture, engineering and construction industry (AEC). Autodesk’s millions of subscribers rely on its software to design and model buildings, manufactured products, animated films and video games. The company’s four segments are AEC (44% of net sales), its iconic software AutoCAD (29%), Manufacturing (21%), and Media and Entertainment (M&E) (6%).
Autodesk primarily sells its software on a subscription basis, having discontinued perpetual license sales of most standalone products in 2016. As part of the move to subscription licensing, Autodesk replaced its product suite with three streamlined “Industry Collections” focused on AEC, Manufacturing and M&E.
In recent years, the AEC industry has increasingly sought to resolve the inefficiencies that arise when many parties are needed to complete a building project. Autodesk has been at the cutting edge of enabling improvement through innovation and promoting the use of open standards, or open building information modeling (BIM), which allows for all relevant building data to be processed virtually in a 3D model and shared across stakeholders. Importantly, Autodesk’s leadership in ensuring the interoperability of its software with that of competitors increases collaboration and productivity among architects, engineers and contractors – an attractive value proposition for its customers…” (Click here to read the full text)
7. Match Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MTCH)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 54
Match Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MTCH) is an interactive media and services company that provides dating products across the globe. Last year, the company announced its plans to join the metaverse with launch discussions for a live virtual world called "Single Town" where singles could interact through their avatars, though the project is yet to expand. Its portfolio of brands includes Tinder, Match, Meetic, OkCupid, Hinge, Pairs, PlentyOfFish, and OurTime, alongside several other brands as well.
Cory Carpenter, an analyst at JPMorgan, holds an Overweight rating on shares of Match Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MTCH) as of October 4. The analyst also placed a $75 price target on the stock.
In the second quarter of 2022, Match Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MTCH) had an EPS of $0.69, beating estimates by $0.07. This July, Match Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MTCH) also acquired the dating app "The League".
Match Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MTCH) was found among the 13F holdings of 54 hedge funds in the second quarter. Their total stake value was $847 million.
6. QUALCOMM, Incorporated (NASDAQ:QCOM)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 71
QUALCOMM, Incorporated (NASDAQ:QCOM), an information technology company, has been heavily investing in the metaverse for over a decade. The company has a $100 million Snapdragon Metaverse Fund, and its Snapdragon XR1 and XR2 platforms seek to meet the demands of virtual and augmented reality devices. It also partnered with Meta Platforms this September to work on spatial computing powered by Snapdragon extended reality (XR) platforms and technologies.
Frank Lee, an analyst at HSBC, initiated coverage of QUALCOMM, Incorporated (NASDAQ:QCOM) shares on October 24 with a Buy rating and a $180 price target. Frank Lee commented that QUALCOMM, Incorporated (NASDAQ:QCOM) was well-positioned for growth in the coming years. The company declared a $0.75 per share quarterly dividend in the same month, and has raised its payout for the past 18 years in a row. As such, the stock is a fair income investing play as well.
QUALCOMM, Incorporated (NASDAQ:QCOM) had 71 hedge funds long its stock in the second quarter, with a total stake value of $2.8 billion. Bailard Inc was the largest stakeholder in the company, holding 159,063 shares worth $17.9 million.
QUALCOMM, Incorporated (NASDAQ:QCOM), like Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META), NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), and Roblox Corporation (NYSE:RBLX), is one of the metaverse stocks many elite hedge funds are vying after this year.
Click to continue reading and see the 5 Best Metaverse Stocks to Buy.
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Disclosure: None. 11 Best Metaverse Stocks to Buy is originally published on Insider Monkey. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=9115a5aa01a4e2a7d9f63b9a2b20286c5099291364a41af013ac021faef25ffc | Why Are Chip Stocks Down Today? | Chip stocks are suffering on Wednesday as job cuts, earnings reports and several other factors drag shares lower today. | 2022-10-26T04:15:00 | InvestorPlace | Chip stocks are suffering on Wednesday as several factors across the market drag shares down.
The first bit of news that investors will want to know about is Seagate Technology (NASDAQ:STX) laying off employees. Specifically, the company is cutting 3,000 jobs as it deals with decreasing demand and increasing costs.
Not helping matters, Seagate also warns that things won’t get better soon. An outlook update from the company has traders worried about its fiscal second-quarter earnings report. The company is undergoing restructuring to deal with current economic woes as well.
Chip and Tech Stocks Are Both Falling Today
That’s not all, however. Another factor affecting chip stocks today is the slew of poor earnings reports from several tech companies. This news includes Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL, NASDAQ:GOOG) missing estimates in its latest report. Of course, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) did beat estimates, but other concerns from its report are keeping MSFT stock down today.
These negative results are stretching out to related markets, which helps explain why chip stocks are falling right now. It’s also possible this trend could continue in the coming weeks. The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting may lead to further damage for tech stocks, for instance.
Today’s news has STX stock down 6.3%, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) flat after a fall this morning and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) only barely recovering from negative movement earlier today.
Investors seeking out more of the latest stock market news will want to keep reading!
We’ve got all of the hottest stock market news worth knowing about on Wednesday! That includes what’s going on with shares of Bionano Genomics (NASDAQ:BNGO), Enphase Energy (NASDAQ:ENPH) and Rumble (NASDAQ:RUM) stock today. You can catch up on all of that at the following links!
More Wednesday Stock Market News
- What Is Going on With Bionano Genomics (BNGO) Stock Today?
- Enphase Energy (ENPH) Stock Pops on Strong Q3 Earnings
- How Elon Musk Could Take Rumble (RUM) Stock to the Next Level
On the date of publication, William White did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=401c242e00d2196e41f22e28557c74f216a4c2739c43a375e7c0cbb8a1153eaa | Most large cryptocurrencies rise as Dogecoin rallies | Most of the largest cryptocurrencies were up during morning trading on Wednesday, with Dogecoin seeing the biggest change, climbing 6.79% to 7 cents. Seven... | 2022-10-26T03:00:00 | MarketWatch | Most of the largest cryptocurrencies were up during morning trading on Wednesday, with Dogecoin DOGEUSD seeing the biggest change, climbing 6.79% to 7 cents.
Seven additional currencies posted upswings Wednesday. Ethereum ETHUSD increased 4.26% to $1,535.81, and Uniswap UNIUSD climbed 3.05% to $6.75.
Bitcoin Cash BCHUSD rose 1.97% to $114.53, while Bitcoin BTCUSD climbed 1.94% to $20,563.48. Litecoin LTCUSD rallied 0.71% to $56.82.
Ripple XRPUSD and Polkadot DOTUSD rounded out the increases for Wednesday, with gains of 0.71% to 46 cents and 0.01% to $6.47, respectively.
On the other hand, Cardano ADAUSD posted the only drop, falling 1.73% to 40 cents.
In crypto-related company news, shares of Coinbase Global Inc. COIN rose 1.43% to $76.12, while MicroStrategy Inc. MSTR climbed 2.66% to $275.83. Riot Blockchain Inc. RIOT shares rallied 4.56% to $7.33, and shares of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. MARA rose 0.75% to $14.87.
Overstock.com Inc. OSTK slid 0.04% to $25.35, while Block Inc. SQ rallied 2.12% to $60.93 and Tesla Inc. TSLA rallied 1.84% to $226.51.
PayPal Holdings Inc. PYPL rose 1.10% to $90.22, and Ebang International Holdings Inc. Cl A EBON shares rallied 1.30% to 31 cents. NVIDIA Corp. NVDA inched down 1.00% to $131.29, and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD fell 1.10% to $60.85.
In the fund space, the Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF BITQ, which is focused on pure-play crypto companies, rallied 1.95% to $6.81. Blockchain-focused Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF BLOK climbed 0.82% to $19.78. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust GBTC, which tracks the Bitcoin market price, climbed 0.71% to $12.31.
Editor's Note: This story, which tracks nine of the top cryptocurrencies and excludes stable coins, was auto-generated by Automated Insights, an automation technology provider, using data from Dow Jones, FactSet and Kraken. See our market data terms of use. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=1d0722dfcdffc76252183c3807959be999250f31efb30dc742b9a8d422949cb5 | Meta Stock Plummets After Weak Earnings. It’s More Bad News for Big Tech. | Wall Street may be running out of patience with Meta's corporate strategy. | 2022-10-25T18:00:00 | MarketWatch | Meta Platforms shares were getting pummeled following the company’s disappointing third-quarter earnings announcement, as a weak advertising environment took a toll on the social media giant.
The stock market carnage suggests that Wall Street is running out of patience with Meta’s (ticker: META) corporate strategy. Investors are clearly dismayed by the company’s plans to aggressively boost spending on the metaverse and other projects in 2023.
The disappointing results from the parent of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp makes three straight weak earnings reports from the tech megacaps, following results on Tuesday from both Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL). Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) report Thursday afternoon.
Meta posted revenue of $27.7 billion for its third quarter, down 4% from a year ago, up about 2% in constant currency, and essentially in line with Street forecasts. Meta’s guidance had called for revenue of between $26 billion and $28.5 billion. Meta earned $1.64 a share in the quarter, falling well shy of Street consensus at $1.90 a share.
“While we face near-term challenges on revenue, the fundamentals are there for a return to stronger revenue growth,” CEO Mark Zuckerberg said in a statement. “We’re approaching 2023 with a focus on prioritization and efficiency that will help us navigate the current environment and emerge an even stronger company.”
The stock slid throughout the afternoon, accelerating during the company’s earnings conference call as Meta provided little comfort to investors about the outlook. As the call neared completion, the stock was down 19%, after a 5.6% drop in Wednesday’s regular session. Shares were off 24% in premarket trading Thursday.
This has been a rough year for Meta and the company’s shareholders. There is new competition from TikTok and others. There are ongoing ad-targeting issues tied to Apple’s renewed focus on privacy protections for iPhone users as well as disappointing monetization for Reels—all amid the softening global economy. And investors remain largely skeptical about prospects for the metaverse.
The third-quarter results will do nothing to improve the market’s assessment of the stock, which now has declined about 70% since its November 2021 peak. Among other things, Zuckerberg showed no signs of backing away from the company’s aggressive investment plans for the Metaverse. And there seems to be no sign of improvement in the company’s core advertising business.
Meta’s outlook for the December quarter calls for revenue of $30 billion to $32.5 billion, at the midpoint of that range it is well short of the Street consensus forecast of $32.4 billion.
The company said in its earnings press release that it is “making some significant changes” to operate more efficiently, and will hold some teams flat in 2023 in terms of head count, while shrinking others. Meta says it expects 2023 year-end head count to be about flat with Q3 2022 levels.
Meta now expects 2022 total expenses to be in the $85 billion to $87 billion range, a slight tweak from its previous forecast for $85 billion to $88 billion; the new range includes $900 million in charges for consolidating office facilities.
Meta projects 2023 expenses in the range of $96 billion to $101 billion, including $2 billion in office consolidation charges. At the midpoint of the range, that would be a 15% hike in expenses. That forecast is likely one reason the stock is getting pummeled—investors have been urging Meta to slash spending.
In an open letter to CEO Mark Zuckerberg and the Meta board earlier this week, Altimeter Capital COE Brad Gerstner urged Meta to cut staff by 20%, reduce capital spending by $5 billion a year and cap spending on the metaverse to no more than $5 billion annually. Meta doesn’t appear to be following his advice.
Meta said it expects operating losses from its Reality Labs unit, which include virtual reality headsets and development of the metaverse, to “grow significantly year over year” in 2023. “Beyond 2023, we expect to pace Reality Labs investments such that we can achieve our goal of growing overall company operating income in the long run,” the company said.
In the quarter, Meta lost $3.7 billion in the Reality Labs unit. The “family of apps” segment—the core social media business—had income from operations of $9.3 billion. Advertising revenue in the quarter was $27.2 billion, down 3.6% from a year earlier.
Meta said it expects capital spending of $32 billion to $33 billion this year, and $34 billion to $39 billion next year, “driven by our investments in data centers, servers, and network infrastructure.” The range is well above the Street consensus forecast for capital spending for 2023 of $29 billion. The company added that “an increase in AI capacity is driving substantially all of our capital expenditure growth in 2023.”
On the news, shares of companies viewed as likely beneficiaries of the company’s aggressive spending plan soared in late trading, with Arista Networks (ANET) up 7%, Nvidia (NVDA) up 4% and Advanced Micro Devices ( AMD ) up 2%.
Write to Eric J. Savitz at [email protected] | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=0b77c2276bf8b8b8c8dbdd0a038d994d8a80e4a417e6d29940b0c78790ceade1 | Top 5 3rd Quarter Trades of Ca - GuruFocus.com | GuruFocus Article or News written by insider and the topic is about: | 2022-10-25T18:00:00 | GuruFocus | Capital Investment Counsel, Inc recently filed their 13F report for the third quarter of 2022, which ended on 2022-09-30.
The 13F report details which stocks were in a guru’s equity portfolio at the end of the quarter, though investors should note that these filings are limited in scope, containing only a snapshot of long positions in U.S.-listed stocks and American depository receipts as of the quarter’s end. They are not required to include international holdings, short positions or other types of investments. Still, even this limited filing can provide valuable information.
17 Glenwood Avenue Raleigh, NC 27603
As of the latest 13F report, the guru’s equity portfolio contained 155 stocks valued at a total of $344.00Mil. The top holdings were AAPL(16.81%), COST(8.26%), and WMT(4.10%).
According to GuruFocus data, these were Capital Investment Counsel, Inc’s top five trades of the quarter.
Apple Inc
Capital Investment Counsel, Inc reduced their investment in NAS:AAPL by 84,874 shares. The trade had a 2.9% impact on the equity portfolio. During the quarter, the stock traded for an average price of $156.95.
On 10/26/2022, Apple Inc traded for a price of $149.0413 per share and a market cap of $2,396.67Bil. The stock has returned 0.48% over the past year.
GuruFocus gives the company a financial strength rating of 6 out of 10 and a profitability rating of 10 out of 10.
In terms of valuation, Apple Inc has a price-earnings ratio of 24.60, a price-book ratio of 41.30, a price-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 1.73, a EV-to-Ebitda ratio of 18.74 and a price-sales ratio of 6.33.
The price-to-GF Value ratio is 0.87, earning the stock a GF Value rank of 6.
Costco Wholesale Corp
Capital Investment Counsel, Inc reduced their investment in NAS:COST by 6,442 shares. The trade had a 0.77% impact on the equity portfolio. During the quarter, the stock traded for an average price of $520.14.
On 10/26/2022, Costco Wholesale Corp traded for a price of $501.97 per share and a market cap of $222.70Bil. The stock has returned 4.33% over the past year.
GuruFocus gives the company a financial strength rating of 8 out of 10 and a profitability rating of 9 out of 10.
In terms of valuation, Costco Wholesale Corp has a price-earnings ratio of 38.31, a price-book ratio of 10.79, a price-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 3.14, a EV-to-Ebitda ratio of 22.29 and a price-sales ratio of 0.99.
The price-to-GF Value ratio is 1.01, earning the stock a GF Value rank of 5.
Cisco Systems Inc
Capital Investment Counsel, Inc reduced their investment in NAS:CSCO by 33,585 shares. The trade had a 0.36% impact on the equity portfolio. During the quarter, the stock traded for an average price of $44.37.
On 10/26/2022, Cisco Systems Inc traded for a price of $44.38 per share and a market cap of $182.63Bil. The stock has returned -17.60% over the past year.
GuruFocus gives the company a financial strength rating of 7 out of 10 and a profitability rating of 10 out of 10.
In terms of valuation, Cisco Systems Inc has a price-earnings ratio of 15.76, a price-book ratio of 4.58, a price-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 3.28, a EV-to-Ebitda ratio of 10.29 and a price-sales ratio of 3.62.
The price-to-GF Value ratio is 0.89, earning the stock a GF Value rank of 6.
NVIDIA Corp
Capital Investment Counsel, Inc reduced their investment in NAS:NVDA by 7,879 shares. The trade had a 0.3% impact on the equity portfolio. During the quarter, the stock traded for an average price of $158.09.
On 10/26/2022, NVIDIA Corp traded for a price of $129.28 per share and a market cap of $324.55Bil. The stock has returned -47.20% over the past year.
GuruFocus gives the company a financial strength rating of 8 out of 10 and a profitability rating of 10 out of 10.
In terms of valuation, NVIDIA Corp has a price-earnings ratio of 42.74, a price-book ratio of 13.60, a price-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 1.33, a EV-to-Ebitda ratio of 34.07 and a price-sales ratio of 11.11.
The price-to-GF Value ratio is 0.52, earning the stock a GF Value rank of 8.
Pfizer Inc
Capital Investment Counsel, Inc reduced their investment in NYSE:PFE by 21,268 shares. The trade had a 0.28% impact on the equity portfolio. During the quarter, the stock traded for an average price of $48.59.
On 10/26/2022, Pfizer Inc traded for a price of $46.42 per share and a market cap of $260.22Bil. The stock has returned 10.09% over the past year.
GuruFocus gives the company a financial strength rating of 7 out of 10 and a profitability rating of 8 out of 10.
In terms of valuation, Pfizer Inc has a price-earnings ratio of 9.08, a price-book ratio of 2.98, a price-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 0.87, a EV-to-Ebitda ratio of 6.88 and a price-sales ratio of 2.63.
The price-to-GF Value ratio is 0.53, earning the stock a GF Value rank of 8.
Please note, the numbers and facts quoted are as of the writing of this article and may not factor in the latest trading data or company announcements.
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This article is general in nature and does not represent the opinions of GuruFocus or any of its affiliates. This article is not intended to be financial advice, nor does it constitute investment advice or recommendations. It was written without regard to your individual situation or financial goals. We aim to bring you fundamental, data-driven analysis, The information on this site is in no way guaranteed for completeness, accuracy or in any other way. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=35c86c784b1111b0fd877ae0f6edef297a287d46fe91d0ff86aec6abdd0b91ff | NVIDIA Corp. stock falls Monday, underperforms market | Shares of NVIDIA Corp. slid 2.72% to $158.27 Monday, on what proved to be an all-around grim trading session for the stock market, with the S&P 500 Index... | 2022-11-28T09:24:00 | MarketWatch | Shares of NVIDIA Corp.
NVDA,
+0.37%
slid 2.72% to $158.27 Monday, on what proved to be an all-around grim trading session for the stock market, with the S&P 500 Index
SPX,
-0.53%
falling 1.54% to 3,963.94 and Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-0.43%
falling 1.45% to 33,849.46. This was the stock's second consecutive day of losses. NVIDIA Corp. closed $175.85 below its 52-week high ($334.12), which the company reached on November 29th.
Trading volume (30.4 M) remained 27.1 million below its 50-day average volume of 57.4 M.
Editor's Note: This story was auto-generated by Automated Insights, an automation technology provider, using data from Dow Jones and FactSet. See our market data terms of use. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=3cf750832e0837b7427ffcbfb16f1709e139a8101ca0ba9c4c1ed74a52b2d5e4 | Louis Navellier’s Top 10 Stock Picks for Q4 2022 | In this article, we discuss the top 10 stock picks from Louis Navellier. If you want to see more stocks in this selection, check out Louis Navellier’s Top 5 Stock Picks for Q4 2022. Louis Navellier, the author of a BusinessWeek best-seller, “The Little Book That Makes You Rich”, is the founder and chairman of […] | 2022-11-28T08:03:51 | Yahoo | Louis Navellier’s Top 10 Stock Picks for Q4 2022
In this article, we discuss the top 10 stock picks from Louis Navellier. If you want to see more stocks in this selection, check out Louis Navellier's Top 5 Stock Picks for Q4 2022.
Louis Navellier, the author of a BusinessWeek best-seller, "The Little Book That Makes You Rich", is the founder and chairman of Reno, Nevada-based money management firm Navellier & Associates. A frequent contributor to business shows on CNBC, Fox News, and Bloomberg, Navellier publishes several newsletters annually which share his investment philosophies and insights as they particularly relate to growth investing. Having received a B.S. in business administration from California State University in 1978, followed by an M.B.A. in finance in 1979, Louis Navellier has decades of experience under his belt, translating what had been purely academic techniques into real market applications.
His hedge fund, Navellier & Associates, employs a three-step, bottom-up stock selection process focusing on quantitative analysis, fundamental analysis, and optimization of the securities selected for the portfolio.
During a live presentation on the MoneyShow earlier this year, Louis Navellier shared his insights into the market, alongside speculating the what the future may hold. Here is what he said:
The US remains an oasis despite the chaos in the world. Americans are naturally optimistic, and our consumer-driven society so far has skirted a recession. However, the Fed is trying to re-establish its credibility by raising key interest rates and threatening to curtail existing economic growth. Engineering a "soft landing" has proven to be next to impossible in the past. I expect inflation to "crack" in September and decelerate to less than a 4% annual pace. The Fed has traditionally overshot when raising key interest rates, so it is imperative that after pricking the housing bubble that the Fed hits the "pause button" to ensure that the US economy does not slip into a recession. I will show investors my best recession-resistant stocks that I expect to prosper regardless of whether the US economy slips into a recession.
Having purchased 42 new stocks, and sold out of 55 positions, Louis & Navellier's most notable holdings in Q3 2022 include NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST), CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF), and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), among others listed below.
Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates
Our Methodology
The following data is gathered from Navellier & Associates’ latest 13F filing with the SEC for the third quarter of 2022. The stocks within this list are some of Louis Navellier's most notable stock picks entering the fourth quarter, and are expected to remain within his portfolio through the end of Q4 due to their strong growth catalysts.
Louis Navellier's Top 10 Stock Picks for Q4 2022
10. Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO)
Navellier & Associates’ Stake Value: $6.17 million
Percentage of Navellier & Associates’ 13F Portfolio: 1.37%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 47
Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO) is a Fortune 500 international manufacturer and marketer of transportation fuels, other petrochemical products, and power. Louis Navellier's Navellier & Associates reported holding a $6.17 million stake in the energy company at the close of Q3 2022.
On October 26, Wells Fargo analyst Roger Read raised the price target on Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO) to $137 from $131 and maintained an Overweight rating on the shares following quarterly results. Read maintains a positive view of Valero, stating that it remains well positioned to generate solid CFFO and return excess cash to shareholders into 2023.
Insider Monkey’s Q3 2022 survey of 920 hedge funds outlined that 47 had held a stake in Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO). Out of these, Peter Rathjens, Bruce Clarke and John Campbell's Arrowstreet Capital is Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO)’s largest investor. It owns 3.13 million shares that are worth $334.59 million.
Alongside NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST), CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF), and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO) ranks among Louis Navellier's favorite stocks.
9. Enphase Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:ENPH)
Navellier & Associates’ Stake Value: $6.24 million
Percentage of Navellier & Associates’ 13F Portfolio: 1.38%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 59
Enphase Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:ENPH) is an American energy technology company headquartered in Fremont, California that develops and manufactures solar micro-inverters, battery energy storage, and EV charging stations primarily for residential customers. Navellier & Associates reported holding 22,491 shares of the company at the end of the third quarter, worth $6.24 million.
Deutsche Bank analyst Corinne Blanchard initiated coverage of Enphase Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:ENPH) with a Buy rating and $330 price target on November 14. The analyst's bullish outlook on the solar group is "underpinned by considerable growth opportunities" for the U.S. residential market and the "most powerful and positive regulatory environment the industry has ever seen." According to Blanchard, Enphase's manufacturing capacity should double up in a two-phased approach.
Enphase Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:ENPH)’s shares are up by 69% year to date, and 59 out of the 920 hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey during this year’s third quarter reported buying its shares. John Overdeck and David Siegel’s Two Sigma Advisors is Enphase Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:ENPH)’s largest investor. It owns 1.4 million shares that are worth $393 million.
8. Coterra Energy Inc. (NYSE:CTRA)
Navellier & Associates’ Stake Value: $6.32 million
Percentage of Navellier & Associates’ 13F Portfolio: 1.4%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 39
Coterra Energy Inc. (NYSE:CTRA) is a diversified energy company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration organized in Delaware, with additional operations in the Permian Basin, Marcellus Shale, and the Anadarko Basin. Louis Navellier holds 13,451 shares of the company as of Q3 2022, worth approximately $6.32 million.
Stifel analyst Derrick Whitfield resumed coverage of Coterra Energy Inc. (NYSE:CTRA) with a Buy rating and $40 price target. The analyst states that he is constructive on management and the company's portfolio of resource projects, which he notes were organically generated. According to Whitfield, Coterra offers investors a "compelling" combination of quality (asset and management) and value.
By the end of this year’s September quarter, 39 out of the 920 hedge funds polled by Insider Monkey had bought Coterra Energy Inc. (NYSE:CTRA)’s shares. Ric Dillon’s Diamond Hill Capital is Coterra Energy Inc. (NYSE:CTRA)’s largest shareholder through a $117 million stake that comes via 4.5 million shares.
7. Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST)
Navellier & Associates’ Stake Value: $6.35 million
Percentage of Navellier & Associates’ 13F Portfolio: 1.41%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 69
Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) is an American multinational corporation which operates a chain of membership-only big-box retail stores. The company leads as one of the biggest retailers in the world across several selected categories. Louis Navellier's hedge fund holds $6.35 million worth of shares in the company.
After having hosted meetings at Costco HQ with CFO Richard Galanti and other members of the company's management team, Morgan Stanley analyst Simeon Gutman stated that 2023 could be a "special" year for Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) on October 28 and kept an Overweight rating and $525 price target on the shares.
On November 22, BofA analysts added Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) to the firm's "US 1 List," which represents a collection of the best investment ideas that are drawn from the universe of Buy-rated, U.S.-listed stocks covered by BofA Global Research fundamental equity research analysts.
Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) was a part of 69 hedge fund portfolios in Q3 2022, compared with 64 in the previous quarter. The stakes owned by these hedge funds have a total value of over $4.42 billion.
Cooper Investors shared its outlook on Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) in its Q3 2022 investor letter. Here’s what the firm said:
“The US economy continues to run hot – the labour market is extremely tight and a number of executives we spoke to described their challenges in retaining staff and preventing competitors from poaching talent. Industrial companies in particular continue to see record backlogs, with the easing of logistics and supply chain constraints only just starting to have an impact on deliveries and lead times.
In terms of inflationary pressures, the vast majority of our holdings have been able to leverage strong market positions and stakeholder relationships to push pricing through in 2022 such that minimal impact to earnings has occurred. Clearly this is not a lever than can be pulled indefinitely but the more experienced management teams have kept some of their powder dry. Our meeting with management at Costco in Seattle was memorable for several reasons but one was their latent ability to increase member pricing which they have not done in over 5 years (and thus likely to do in 2023)…
…To conclude we’ll return to our meeting with Costco mentioned earlier. The business quality is no secret after decades of incredible execution, but the meeting gave us renewed conviction around Value Latencies in terms of the runway for growth, the focus on enhancing customer value, Costco’s vast buying power (it purchases 30% of the world’s jumbo cashews as one example) and management’s feral focus on the business model and cost discipline.”
6. Quanta Services, Inc. (NYSE:PWR)
Navellier & Associates’ Stake Value: $10 million
Percentage of Navellier & Associates’ 13F Portfolio: 2.23%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 47
Quanta Services, Inc. (NYSE:PWR) is an American contracting services corporation that provides infrastructure services for electric power, pipeline, industrial and communications industries. Louis Navellier's hedge fund owned a $10 million stake in Quanta Services, Inc. (NYSE:PWR) as part of its portfolio for the third quarter of this year. The stake came through the fund owning 78,928 shares of the company, and it represented 2.23% of its investment portfolio.
On November 8, KeyBanc analyst Sean Eastman raised the price target on Quanta Services, Inc. (NYSE:PWR) to $174 from $156 alongside an Overweight rating on the company's shares based on what he calls greater confidence in the multiyear, mid-teens EPS growth algorithm.
Insider Monkey’s Q3 2022 920 hedge fund survey outlined that 47 funds had invested in the firm, a jump from just 34 in the previous quarter. William Harnisch's Peconic Partners LLC is the company's largest shareholder for the quarter, with approximately 5.53 million shares worth $1.3 billion.
Similar to NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST), CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF), and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Quanta Services, Inc. (NYSE:PWR) is one of Louis Navellier's top stock picks.
Click here to continue reading and see Louis Navellier's Top 5 Stock Picks for Q4 2022.
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Disclosure: None. Louis Navellier's Top 10 Stock Picks for Q4 2022 is originally published on Insider Monkey. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=fea25fdca440b3fdd3848dd81e54d52c390b0462b88a1cf06974ea7f2ca2b5c8 | Nvidia Sees Better Times Ahead as 2023 Nears | In today's video, Jose Najarro and Nick Rossolillo discuss Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), its most recent earnings, and why the bottom might be near for this semiconductor giant. Check out the short video to learn more, consider subscribing, and click the special offer link below. | 2022-11-28T07:57:34 | Yahoo | Nvidia Sees Better Times Ahead as 2023 Nears
In today's video, Jose Najarro and Nick Rossolillo discuss Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), its most recent earnings, and why the bottom might be near for this semiconductor giant. Check out the short video to learn more, consider subscribing, and click the special offer link below. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=dfc12f4414bcdc860fa1b4788068c52204f0657fe8a437b309ce13078ac28dcb | Has AMD Replaced Nvidia as a Top Semiconductor Company? | Although AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) and Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) have different product lines, they still compete against each other in some offerings. As a result, the two are often compared, with Nvidia often coming out as the better company up until a few months ago. Now, the conversation has switched as Nvidia's execution has been disappointing over the past few quarters. | 2022-11-28T07:07:00 | Yahoo | Has AMD Replaced Nvidia as a Top Semiconductor Company?
Although AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) and Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) have different product lines, they still compete against each other in some offerings. As a result, the two are often compared, with Nvidia often coming out as the better company up until a few months ago. Now, the conversation has switched as Nvidia's execution has been disappointing over the past few quarters. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=621189f0a056f03af2cacf99b28ac305455b21a5ccd17a4bff51a3c9640fbac8 | Retirement Stock Portfolio: 11 Safe Tech Stocks to Consider | In this article, we discuss the 11 safe tech stocks for a retirement stock portfolio. If you want to read about some more tech stocks, go directly to Retirement Stock Portfolio: 5 Safe Tech Stocks to Consider. There is broad-based consensus among finance professionals that the traditional definitions of growth and value stocks do hold-up […] | 2022-11-28T05:02:01 | Yahoo | Retirement Stock Portfolio: 11 Safe Tech Stocks to Consider
In this article, we discuss the 11 safe tech stocks for a retirement stock portfolio. If you want to read about some more tech stocks, go directly to Retirement Stock Portfolio: 5 Safe Tech Stocks to Consider.
There is broad-based consensus among finance professionals that the traditional definitions of growth and value stocks do hold-up very well in the present economy. This is because the technology sector has disrupted almost every major industry and is now a critical part of the overall economy, and firms like Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG), and Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE:MA) are now established businesses with strong profiles that are not, in the ordinary sense of the word, exclusively growth-oriented.
There are examples which illustrate this point. Peter Thiel, a famous entrepreneur, grew a $1,700 investment in tech stocks to a multi-billion dollar tax-free payout over the course of two decades. During the pandemic, the shift towards digital also demonstrated the safety of tech stocks as businesses altered their models to incorporate the changing consumer demands. Investors are now discarding value sectors like utilities and consumer goods in favor of tech-led disruptors for better returns in the long-term.
Our Methodology
The companies that operate in the technology sector and have established business models that have demonstrated historical resilience against inflationary headwinds were selected for the list. In order to provide readers with some context for their investment choices, the business fundamentals and analyst ratings for the stocks are also discussed. Data from around 900 elite hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey in the third quarter of 2022 was used to identify the number of hedge funds that hold stakes in each firm.
Photo by Ruben Sukatendel on Unsplash
Retirement Stock Portfolio: Safe Tech Stocks to Consider
11. Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:GILD)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 56
Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:GILD) a biotech company that discovers, develops, and commercializes medicines. It is one of the best safe tech stocks for a retirement stock portfolio. On October 31, Maxim analyst Jason McCarthy maintained a Buy rating on Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:GILD) stock and raised the price target to $92 from $84, noting that the company's third quarter results were strong due to the Veklury and HIV franchise.
Among the hedge funds being tracked by Insider Monkey, Boston-based investment firm Arrow Street Capital is a leading shareholder in Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:GILD) with 12 million shares worth more than $742.5 million.
Just like Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG), and Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE:MA), Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:GILD) is one of the safe tech stocks for a retirement portfolio.
In its Q4 2021 investor letter, ClearBridge Investments, an asset management firm, highlighted a few stocks and Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:GILD) was one of them. Here is what the fund said:
“Other pharma companies are providing solutions as well. Biopharmaceutical company Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:GILD)’s remdesivir, sold under the brand name Veklury, is a broad-spectrum antiviral medication administered by intravenous infusion; it can shorten the time to recovery in hospitalized patients and reduce the risk of hospitalization and death in non-hospitalized patients.”
10. Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 74
Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) designs, manufactures and sells memory and storage products worldwide. It is one of the top safe tech stocks for a retirement stock portfolio. On October 4, Micron Technology said that it would spend $100 billion on a massive new chip making facility in upstate New York in another sign that new federal investments are stimulating domestic investment in the semiconductor industry.
On October 13, Loop Capital analyst Charles Park initiated coverage of Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) stock with a Buy rating and $70 price target, noting that the key metrics show that the memory industry is nearing a bottom and the risk/reward appears favorable.
At the end of the third quarter of 2022, 74 hedge funds in the database of Insider Monkey held stakes worth $2.5 billion in Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU), compared to 69 in the preceding quarter worth $2.2 billion.
In its Q2 2022 investor letter, Meridian Funds, an asset management firm, highlighted a few stocks and Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) was one of them. Here is what the fund said:
“Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) is a leader in the production of DRAM and NAND memory. We invested in the stock in the third quarter of 2019 during a cyclical downturn in the memory industry. Our rationale was that, while the memory industry is cyclical, we believed there are strong secular drivers in place that will lead to higher peaks and long-term growth. Our secular thesis is based on our conviction that the quest for ever-increasing compute speeds will increasingly rely on memory to solve bottlenecks and that increased memory content in nearly everything from mobile phones to automobiles will drive demand. Micron’s stock traded lower during the quarter due to macroeconomic concerns that led to lower earnings expectations. We increased our stake in the company, as we believe our secular thesis remains intact. We wanted to take advantage of what we view as temporary cyclical concerns that caused the stock to trade at less than 10x reasonable trough earnings per share (EPS) estimates and less than 7x recent peak EPS.”
9. Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 88
Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems. It is one of the premier safe tech stocks for a retirement stock portfolio. On November 3, Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk said he planned to triple the size of its factory in southeast Berlin. Tesla required 1.4 million cubic meters of water every year to cast vehicle parts and cool heavy machinery and painting jobs. It has now gained access to a water resource for the purpose.
On October 24, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas maintained an Overweight rating on Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock and lowered the price target to $330 from $350, noting that the company's third quarter report, while in line with consensus expectations, was both stronger and higher quality than expected.
At the end of the third quarter of 2022, 88 hedge funds in the database of Insider Monkey held stakes worth $7.4 billion in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), compared to 73 in the preceding quarter worth $7.2 billion.
In its Q2 2022 investor letter, Baron Funds, an asset management firm, highlighted a few stocks and Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) was one of them. Here is what the fund said:
“In 2014, before we began to invest in Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), I called Roger to ask whether he thought Elon Musk’s electric car business would succeed. I did not believe that Roger, an owner of dealerships that sell cars powered by internal combustion engines (ICE) would likely have a favorable opinion of Tesla’s prospects. That was principally for two reasons:
First, automobile manufacturing and distribution is unusually complicated, capital intensive, and highly regulated, which makes profitability problematic;
second, cars with ICE motors require extensive annual maintenance, and dealer services revenues, not profits from automobile sales, are the most important contributor to profits of perpetual licensed ICE car dealerships.
Penske Automotive Group is principally an ICE car dealer. Since electric cars are powered by batteries and need little service, franchised dealerships are incented to sell ICE, not EV automobiles. Further, Roger had been a long-term director of General Motors. General Motors’ ICE automobile business would be disrupted if Tesla were successful. (click here to read more…)
8. NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 89
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) provides graphics, computing and networking solutions. It is one of the elite safe tech stocks for a retirement stock portfolio. On November 3, NVIDIA said it had partnered with Red Hat to test BlueField 2 DPUs. The companies found that the BluField 2 reduced networking demands on CPUs by 70% and accelerated speeds by 54 times. NVIDIA told HPCwire that it is continuing to run DPU tests with Red Hat.
On October 25, Needham analyst Rajvindra Gill maintained a Buy rating on NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock and lowered the price target to $155 from $170, noting that consensus estimates were still forecasting a positive rate of growth for semiconductor stocks.
Among the hedge funds being tracked by Insider Monkey, Chicago-based investment firm Citadel Investment Group is a leading shareholder in NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) with 19.2 million shares worth more than $2.3 billion.
In its Q2 2022 investor letter, Baron Funds, an asset management firm, highlighted a few stocks and NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) was one of them. Here is what the fund said:
“At the company-specific level, there was a broad correction across the entire portfolio. While four of our holdings contributed to performance, the contribution to absolute returns was less than 100bps combined, as unfortunately none of them was large enough to move the needle. We had 16 investments detracting over 100bps each with NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), our second largest detractor, costing the Fund 254bps.
NVIDIA’s stock was hit even harder, down 44.4%, impacted by concerns over the health of the consumer, dramatic declines in crypto, and COVID-related lockdowns in China. Despite the sell-off and the increased near-term volatility in its gaming business, NVIDIA’s revenues grew 46% year-over-year with 48% operating margins, driven by continued strength in its data center business as companies across industries adopt AI and ML…(read more)
7. ServiceNow, Inc. (NYSE:NOW)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 103
ServiceNow, Inc. (NYSE:NOW) provides enterprise cloud computing solutions that define, structure, consolidate, manage, and automate services for enterprises worldwide. It is one of the major safe tech stocks for a retirement stock portfolio. On October 6, ServiceNow declared that it had won a blanket purchase agreement by the US Department of Health Services. The agreement has an estimated value of $250 million for a five year performance period through 2027. The company will collaborate with Carahsoft to provide crucial functionality for HHS applications, reduce waste and help optimize inventory.
On November 2, Macquarie analyst Sarah Hindlian-Bowler took over coverage of ServiceNow, Inc. (NYSE:NOW) stock with an Outperform rating and $500 price target, noting that the company is expected to continue to deliver a best-in-class platform for making work better.
Among the hedge funds being tracked by Insider Monkey, New York-based investment firm Tiger Global Managements is a leading shareholder in ServiceNow, Inc. (NYSE:NOW) with 1.7 million shares worth more than $639.7 million.
In its Q2 2022 investor letter, Ensemble Capital, an asset management firm, highlighted a few stocks and ServiceNow, Inc. (NYSE:NOW) was one of them. Here is what the fund said:
"ServiceNow, Inc. (NYSE:NOW) is an enterprise software company that helps its corporate customers integrate all of their various software products into a unified platform. Their products are a key element in driving the digital transformation nearly every large company is undergoing. At the recent JP Morgan investor day, CEO Jamie Dimon explained that while the company could reduce expenses if needed should the economy slow, their spending on digital transformation would continue as this spending was critical to the company managing costs and maximizing revenue over time. As an example of this type of spending, Dimon specifically pointed to ServiceNow, calling out that the company’s products now oversaw the single largest collection of JP Morgan data and highlighted that working with them had saved JP Morgan $50 million over the past few years. (click here to read more…)
6. Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 117
Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM) provides customer relationship management technology that brings companies and customers together worldwide. It is one of the prominent safe tech stocks for a retirement stock portfolio. On September 20, Salesforce noted that it would be launching a new market place to trade carbon credits that will let companies and organizations accelerate their climate positive impact at scale. The new platform is known as Net Zero Marketplace.
On November 2, Macquarie analyst Sarah Hindlian-Bowler took over coverage of Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM) stock with an Outperform rating and $210 price target, noting the company should end its multiple contractions with Cloud Suite-driven growth and improving margins.
At the end of the third quarter of 2022, 117 hedge funds in the database of Insider Monkey held stakes worth $8.2 billion in Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM), compared to 116 in the preceding quarter worth $7.9 billion.
In addition to Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG), and Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE:MA), Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM) is one of the safe tech stocks for a retirement portfolio.
In its Q3 2022 investor letter, Oakmark Funds, an asset management firm, highlighted a few stocks and Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM) was one of them. Here is what the fund said:
“Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM) has become a dominant global player in sales, customer service, commerce and marketing software over the past 20 years. The company earns 80% gross margins and grows 20% organically. Plus, virtually all of its revenue is recurring. We see Salesforce as a great business that we’ve admired from afar for a long time. More recently, the organization has made some changes at the top that prompted us to take a closer look at the stock. New CEO Bret Taylor and CFO Amy Weaver are bringing a culture of financial discipline. We believe this renewed focus on profitability and capital return, combined with Salesforce’s strong underlying business characteristics, will yield strong results. The current valuation of 3.9x next year’s revenues represents a significant discount compared to publicly traded peers and recent private market values in the software space that have similar growth profiles. We view this discount as an opportunity to invest in a great business at a good value.”
Click to continue reading and see Retirement Stock Portfolio: 5 Safe Tech Stocks to Consider.
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Disclosure. None. Retirement Stock Portfolio: 11 Safe Tech Stocks to Consider is originally published on Insider Monkey. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=3e54b7d480b3d618930af633ccbafacf065ba5373506254c020c5c1bf840c3ad | Largest cryptocurrencies fall as Dogecoin drops | All of the largest cryptocurrencies were down during morning trading on Monday, with Dogecoin seeing the biggest move, falling 9.83% to 9 cents. Ripple... | 2022-11-28T02:00:00 | MarketWatch | All of the largest cryptocurrencies were down during morning trading on Monday, with Dogecoin DOGEUSD seeing the biggest move, falling 9.83% to 9 cents.
Ripple XRPUSD declined 5.50% to 38 cents, and Uniswap UNIUSD declined 5.32% to $5.25.
Litecoin LTCUSD declined 5.32% to $71.78 on Monday, while Ethereum ETHUSD shed 4.09% to $1,166.51 and Polkadot DOTUSD declined 4.28% to $5.17.
Cardano ADAUSD and Bitcoin Cash BCHUSD fell 4.01% to 31 cents and 3.74% to $108.78
Bitcoin BTCUSD rounded out the decreases with a 2.12% decline to $16,217.68.
In crypto-related company news, shares of Coinbase Global Inc. COIN inched down 0.93% to $43.87, while MicroStrategy Inc. MSTR shed 2.73% to $178.00. Riot Blockchain Inc. RIOT shares declined 2.33% to $4.33, and shares of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. MARA fell 3.14% to $6.03.
Overstock.com Inc. OSTK sank 0.60% to $25.24, while Block Inc. SQ sank 0.81% to $62.87 and Tesla Inc. TSLA rose 0.72% to $184.17.
PayPal Holdings Inc. PYPL rallied 2.15% to $81.80, and Ebang International Holdings Inc. EBON shares shed 3.33% to $4.93. NVIDIA Corp. NVDA climbed 0.18% to $162.99, and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD rose 2.15% to $75.31.
In the fund space, blockchain-focused Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF BLOK slipped 0.90% to $16.59. The Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF BITQ, which is focused on pure-play crypto companies, declined 1.27% to $4.25. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust GBTC, which tracks the Bitcoin market price, shed 1.66% to $8.88.
Editor's Note: This story, which tracks nine of the top cryptocurrencies and excludes stable coins, was auto-generated by Automated Insights, an automation technology provider, using data from Dow Jones, FactSet and Kraken. See our market data terms of use. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=e0ca1f603dd9c073e33694e01fa5670d626b0c1550727e1e82a1790a63eefdb6 | Nvidia Stock Q&A With Wall Street Investors | In this installment of Q&A with Wall Street, I deep dive into Nvidia's (NASDAQ: NVDA) third-quarter conference call with analysts. *Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of Nov. 23, 2022. The video was published on Nov. | 2022-11-27T06:00:00 | Yahoo | Nvidia Stock Q&A With Wall Street Investors
In this installment of Q&A with Wall Street, I deep dive into Nvidia's (NASDAQ: NVDA) third-quarter conference call with analysts. *Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of Nov. 23, 2022. The video was published on Nov. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=19637228f145ad435da89059c7c732df7a37d8c0904cf597d6a4f463296d82e9 | NIO: Beijing Sends A Message | NIOâs ability to become profitable in the foreseeable future will be hampered. Click here to find out why the stock is a Hold. | 2022-11-27T06:00:00 | SeekingAlpha | NIO: Beijing Sends A Message
Summary
- The resurgence of Covid-19 in the capital city of Beijing signals to investors that movement curbs in China are here to stay.
- This would undoubtedly negatively affect NIO’s ability to create additional shareholder value, as its production facilities could be shut down at any time by the officials to contain the virus.
- Constant lockdowns along with the need to reinvest the available resources into expansion would continue to hamper NIO’s ability to become profitable in the foreseeable future.
- Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of BlackSquare Capital get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More »
Despite all the chatter in recent weeks about the possibility of easing the zero-Covid policy in China, the latest resurgence of the virus in the capital city of Beijing shows that it's too premature to expect any pivot from this policy anytime soon. Right now, the number of Covid-19 cases in Beijing is higher in comparison to the number of infected in Shanghai earlier this year after which wide lockdowns were implemented, which indicates that China is failing to contain the virus that negatively affects its economy and the ability of its private sector to operate without any restrictions.
Just earlier this month, NIO (NYSE:NIO) in particular was required to shut its assembly lines in its production facility in Hefei due to the resurgence of Covid-19 there as well, which is more than likely going to lead to the company's weak performance in Q4. Add to this the fact that in order for NIO to successfully expand its market share it constantly needs to reinvest the available resources into the launch of new models, and it becomes obvious that the company is unlikely to realize its global ambitions in the current environment anytime soon.
In my latest article on NIO, I've already stated that China is a one-man show now and Xi Jinping's praise of the zero-Covid policy along with the latest implementation of movement restrictions in the capital city signal to investors that strict movement curbs are here to stay. As a result of this, we could expect more downward pressure on Chinese stocks and NIO in particular despite the fact that the company recently reported decent results.
The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
A few weeks after my latest article on NIO came out in which I highlighted the outcome of the 20th National Congress of the CCP and the lasting negative effects that they would have on Chinese-based stocks, the automaker released its Q3 earnings results. Even though during the three-month period the company increased its revenues by 32.6% Y/Y to $1.83 billion, its vehicle margin decreased from 18% to 16.4%, while its non-GAAP earnings were below the street estimates by $0.14 per share. At the same time, even though NIO has been reporting a double-digit Y/Y top-line growth rate for most of the previous quarters, its stock nevertheless has been mostly depreciating since January 2021.
Going forward, there are several challenges that NIO is facing, which are more than likely to negatively affect its own performance and the performance of its stock in the foreseeable future. First of all, in addition to improving the lineup of its electric SUVs to expand its market share within the high-range market, NIO is also actively trying to access the mass market by increasing the lineup of its electric sedans. Earlier this year, the company has already released two sedans under the names ET7 and ET5, and it plans to offer additional models in the following years.
Such an expansion of the lineup is never cheap, as the EV business especially is extremely capital-heavy. That's why NIO is more than likely to once again dilute its shareholders by selling additional shares in the foreseeable future. Slightly more than a year ago, NIO has already raised $2 billion at the at-the-market offering, which has raised its cash reserves to $8.3 billion at the end of Q4'21, up from $6.7 billion at the end of Q3'21. However, due to the constant need to fund its expansion, most of that reserves are already gone since at the end of the latest quarter its cash reserves stood at only $6.3 billion, which indicates a heavy cash burn in the last year. At the same time, NIO is also sacrificing its bottom-line performance to fund its growth, and as a result, in Q3'22 its net loss stood at $582.2 million against a net loss of $443.3 million a year ago.
On top of all of this, the decision of Tesla (TSLA) to decrease prices for some of its models in China could spark a beginning of a price war due to the increased competition within the industry in recent years, which would make it even harder for NIO to become profitable anytime soon. Its negative earnings and net margins indicate that it's unlikely that the company would improve its bottom-line performance anytime soon. Therefore, it's safe to assume that another round of dilution is upon us in the foreseeable future, as NIO's latest financials show that the company would need additional cash to sustain its current burn rate and continue to aggressively expand at the same time.
What's worse is that in addition to the lack of profits, NIO would also continue to be exposed to the headwinds that are caused by the zero-Covid policy. Earlier this month, the company was already required to shut down the assembly plants on its Hefei plant, as the region has experienced an increase in Covid-19 cases. On top of that, the recent movement curbs in Beijing signal that China is unlikely to contain the spread of the virus on the mainland, and as a result, we could safely assume that NIO's operations would continue to be disrupted because of that in the foreseeable future.
What's Next?
For Q4, NIO expects to deliver a total of 43,000 to 48,000 vehicles. The problem is that in October, it managed to deliver only 10,059 vehicles, down 7.5% Q/Q, and after requiring to shut down its Hefei plant at the beginning of this month it's more than likely that its November deliveries would be down as well Q/Q. As a result, it's unlikely that NIO would be able to achieve its deliveries goal, especially if the number of Covid-19 cases continues to increase and the movement curbs expand to other major cities and regions. UBS already started to question NIO's ability to execute its goals in the current environment, while Seeking Alpha's Quant rating system has given the company's stock a 'Sell' rating.
In addition to the zero-Covid environment and the profitability argument, we shouldn't forget that the political risks are not going away as well. Even though it seems that the U.S. auditors had a successful trip to the mainland and got full access to the books of Chinese firms, Sino-American relations continue to be at historical lows after the Biden administration implemented new chip export restrictions, which affected NIO as well due to its reliance on Nvidia's (NVDA) A100 GPUs. On top of that, weak growth of the Chinese economy along with declining demographics are also other major reasons to be cautious when investing in Chinese stocks and NIO in particular, as it's unlikely that its stock would be able to generate meaningful returns anytime soon given those and other developments.
The Bottom Line
The resurgence of Covid-19 in Beijing along with the subsequent implementation of movement restrictions shows that China is unable to contain the spread of the virus. As a result, the government is more than likely going to continue to stick with its zero-Covid policy for the foreseeable future. This would undoubtedly hurt NIO's operations, as the shutting down of its assembly plants earlier this month is more than likely to already prevent the company from achieving its Q4 goals and greatly improving its top-line performance.
At the same time, as the competition within the Chinese EV industry intensifies and forces NIO to increase its spending in order to expand its market share, it becomes even harder for NIO to become profitable and improve its bottom-line performance anytime soon.
Therefore, it's safe to say that NIO along with other Chinese stocks is uninvestable at the moment, as the political headwinds along with the capital-heavy requirements to run the business are more than likely to prevent the company and its peers from creating an additional shareholder value in the foreseeable future.
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This article was written by
It was there that I started to combine my academic knowledge with a passion for investing to build an all-weather portfolio that could overcome periods of constant economic and political uncertainty. Given the systemic shocks that have been happening to Ukraine in the last decade, I saw firsthand what’s it like to live in an environment where there’s too much unpredictability and no guarantee that your endeavors won’t fail. Despite this, I managed to show strong returns and since 2015 have been sharing some of my ideas here on Seeking Alpha.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Bohdan Kucheriavyi and/or BlackSquare Capital is/are not a financial/investment advisor, broker, or dealer. He's/It's/They're solely sharing personal experience and opinion; therefore, all strategies, tips, suggestions, and recommendations shared are solely for informational purposes. There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks, bonds, options, exchange-traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involves the risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high-risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including greater volatility and political, economic, and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Comments (36)
2) Getting crushed by Tesla in China, despite the government giving them advantages over them. Also getting crushed by BYD
3) Incinerating cash, losing billions of dollars a year, with no end in sight. Margins shrinking does not help
4) Grizzly Research released a short report showing that they've pumped up their net income by 90-95% and pumped their revenue by double-digits
5) FTX-style accounting practices, with unaudited financials and a sketchy subsidiary being used to juice earnings reports
6) Only 260K cars sold since 2014
7) Dishonest, incompetent, and crooked management with marketing and non-technical backgrounds. Getting into smartphones, utilities, and home appliances shows lack of focus
8) Uninvestable Chinese market due to geopolitical choices made by Chairman XiBefore people tell me to short it - I've already bought puts and profited once before. Waiting for a bit of a dead cat bounce in the Chinese market before I buy them again.
I actually shorted the damn thing in summer of 2020 when it was trading at 6 or 7. Lost six or seven hundred bucks.
It was a good cover though, peaked out at 62 ? by the end of the year.
ore where is the "zero" with thousends of new positive omnicron tests every day?! It's not working | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=f4b8adf6f35e73002d20ae59c00aa6e57d147fed7d716573b467c57ecf15a699 | The Smartest Stocks to Buy With $20 Right Now and Hold Forever | The stock market has been intimidating for beginners this year. Major stock indexes are falling, and several factors are keeping volatility high. This makes it difficult for new investors to choose stocks to buy and hold. | 2022-11-27T04:20:00 | Yahoo | The Smartest Stocks to Buy With $20 Right Now and Hold Forever
The stock market has been intimidating for beginners this year. Major stock indexes are falling, and several factors are keeping volatility high. This makes it difficult for new investors to choose stocks to buy and hold. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=ab3e453f0040baa6a8a5d09c5778d5320036bb437ab85bb1ad889e05bf214096 | Better Semiconductor Stock: Mobileye vs. Nvidia | Mobileye (NASDAQ: MBLY) and Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) represent two very different ways to invest in the semiconductor sector. Mobileye, which was spun off from Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) earlier this year, is the world's leading producer of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and computer vision chips for semi-autonomous and autonomous vehicles. Nvidia is the world's largest producer of discrete GPUs for gaming PCs and data centers. | 2022-11-27T02:10:00 | Yahoo | Better Semiconductor Stock: Mobileye vs. Nvidia
Mobileye (NASDAQ: MBLY) and Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) represent two very different ways to invest in the semiconductor sector. Mobileye, which was spun off from Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) earlier this year, is the world's leading producer of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and computer vision chips for semi-autonomous and autonomous vehicles. Nvidia is the world's largest producer of discrete GPUs for gaming PCs and data centers. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=cde20ef146ac7368361bedd47992b29d7ea3ed0dea2137a687355c681325fd27 | Top Wall Street analysts say buy these stocks during a market downturn | TipRanks analyst ranking service pinpoints Wall Street's best-performing stocks, including Disney and Nvidia. | 2022-11-27T01:24:32 | CNBC | Even though the holiday week ended on a positive note for stocks, more volatility is likely in the cards.
All eyes are on November's upcoming payrolls report, due out Dec. 2. Further, the Federal Reserve's Dec. 13-14 meeting looms ahead, and investors await the central bank's next steps on its monetary policy campaign. There is still plenty of time for stocks to churn before the year ends.
related investing news
This means investors need to shift their focus toward longer-term prospects instead of fixating on near-term gyrations in the market. See below for five stocks picked by Wall Street's top pros, according to TipRanks, a platform that ranks analysts based on their previous performance.
Nvidia
Nvidia (NVDA) has been hurting from weakening demand for its chips from the gaming and data center end markets due to the macroeconomic headwinds and supply-chain issues.
However, after the company posted its quarterly results, Susquehanna analyst Christopher Rolland noticed that Nvidia is "getting back on track." This prompted him to reiterate a buy rating on the stock and raise the price target to $185 from $180. (See Nvidia Dividend Date & History on TipRanks)
While elevated channel inventories are still a problem, Nvidia foresees them falling back to normal levels from the next quarter onward. Other than that, Rolland was fairly satisfied with the quarterly performance and trends. Nvidia's gross margin guidance amid lower revenue run rate impressed the analyst, who said that this "may be indicative of significantly higher ASPs (average selling price) for both new gaming and data center products."
The analyst said that of the four major end markets (auto, datacenter, professional visualization, and gaming), at least three are expected to grow at three times the rate of the overall semiconductor market.
Rolland is ranked 26th among more than 8,000 analysts tracked on TipRanks. His track record over the past year shows a success rate of 69% and average returns of 21.8% per rating.
Marvell Technology
Another of Rolland's stock picks is semiconductor company Marvell Technology (MRVL), which is slated to post its third-quarter fiscal 2023 results on Dec. 1. Ahead of the print, the analyst identified several dampening factors that are expected to be a near-term sore point. Keeping that in mind, Rolland trimmed the price target to $75 from $90.
The company's nearline HDD business is expected to have remained weak in the quarter, due to a large inventory build. Overall, the analyst expects Marvell to have had a slightly disappointing quarter, despite some tailwinds from the North American rollouts of 5G infrastructure. (See Marvell Stock Chart on TipRanks)
Looking beyond the quarter, Rolland sees several upsides to Marvell. "We believe the start of India's 5G deployments could be a positive for the narrative (with revenue to come later in 2023). Marvell's 5G products continue to ramp at both Samsung and Nokia (two large customers), as the networking businesses at both companies beat expectations," the analyst said.
Rolland reiterated his buy rating on the company.
Costco
Costco (COST) operates an international chain of warehouse clubs that offer branded and private items from various product categories. Recently, in light of food inflation, slowdown, and other economic forces, Bank of America analyst Robert Ohmes analyzed the company's prospects and emerged bullish.
"We expect high food inflation to drive continued share gains for the warehouse club channel (including Costco) given the strong value proposition and price positioning on overlapping SKUs vs. mass and traditional grocery," said Ohmes. (See Costco Website Traffic on TipRanks)
The analyst pointed out that Costco churns out more than 20 new clubs a year. Further, he expects solid trends in customer traffic and membership renewal rates to continue. Even in the international markets, continued growth in same-store sales is a positive for the company
Ohmes is ranked at No. 854 among more than 8,000 analysts on TipRanks. The analyst has delivered profitable ratings 56% of the time, and each one has generated average returns of 8.3%.
Monday.com
Earlier this month, project management tool provider Monday.com (MNDY) delivered banner quarterly results, which buoyed the confidence of investors and analysts alike. Among the Monday.com bulls was Tigress Financial Partners analyst Ivan Feinseth, who reiterated a buy rating on the stock.
Feinseth noted that the company's performance stands to gain from consistently strong customer adoption rates. Furthermore, Monday.com's competitive advantage lies in its low-code/no-code Work OS. He also maintains that easy integration and user-friendliness of the platform will continue to attract significant customers and boost revenue growth. (See Monday.com Financial Statements on TipRanks)
"Ongoing innovation and growth will continue to drive MNDY's already strong brand equity together with its high-margin SaaS (Software as a Service) subscription-based revenue model will drive an ongoing acceleration in Business Performance trends which will drive an increasing Return on Capital, further gains in Economic Profit, and long-term shareholder value creation," said Feinseth.
He is ranked 232nd among more than 8,000 analysts on TipRanks. Feinseth has issued profitable ratings 60% of the time, and each has delivered 11.3% returns on average.
Disney
Entertainment company Disney (DIS) is another stock on Feinseth's buy list. The analyst recently reiterated a buy rating and $177 price target on the stock, mainly encouraged by the return of former CEO Bob Iger, who is expected to drive "a return to creativity dominance."
Moreover, the solid content roster is expected to drive the company's growth. Feinseth is also upbeat about Disney's ongoing investments in its theme park upgrades, new technology and ongoing content development, which he thinks will continue to drive the company's performance. (See Walt Disney Hedge Fund Trading Activity on TipRanks)
"DIS will continue to drive increasing theme park attendance with ongoing park upgrades and introductions of new attractions; the ongoing leverage of its advanced reservation system is driving capacity optimization and greater revenue yield, and its Genie and Genie+ virtual park assistant significantly increase guest experiences," said Feinseth.
The analyst highlights Disney's strong balance sheet, cash flow generating capabilities and practical capital-allocating strategies. These are helping the company invest in content development, new theme park attractions and other growth-driving efforts. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=d005711fed8d2e4102933c2d807e1f02c43014a949806ae54434f0063ddbdc50 | Qualcomm: Not Your Simple Mobile Chip Stock - The Next Automotive/ Industrial Ace | Though the recent semi-super-cycle has obviously ended, the next wave is not far behind, given the robust demand. Read my analysis of QCOM stock. | 2022-11-27T00:00:00 | SeekingAlpha | Qualcomm: Not Your Simple Mobile Chip Stock - The Next Automotive/ Industrial Ace
Summary
- Though the recent semi-super-cycle has obviously ended, the next wave is not far behind, given the robust demand from the automotive and industrial end markets.
- QCOM has reported automotive pipeline wins of over $30B, growing aggressively by $11B QoQ and $20B YoY, despite peak recessionary fears and supposed inventory correction.
- These end markets are expected to remarkably expand to $3.51T in value by 2030, paving the way for tremendous electrification efforts globally.
- Therefore, it is surprising that QCOM continues to be viewed as a simple mobile chip maker, against market darlings such as AMD and NVDA.
Investment Thesis
It is evident by now that a new critical semiconductor segment is materializing, due to the global electrification push over the next few years and the record high oil/gas prices from the Ukraine war. With more automakers converting their ICE production lines to EVs, there is no surprise that more semi-companies are pushing into new automotive segments with various levels of success. The IoT end market is also a force to be reckoned with, due to the progressive digital transformation post-COVID-19 pandemic.
Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) is obviously the more successful of the lot, given its massive automotive design win pipeline across connectivity, digital cockpit, and Advanced Driver Assistance System of over $30B by FQ4'22. The number indicates a remarkable growth of 57.89% and $11B QoQ, otherwise by a gargantuan 300% and $20B YoY, despite the peak recessionary fears. This is number is obviously impressive, since competitors such as Nvidia (NVDA) only reported $11B of automotive pipeline wins, with ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ:ON) boasting a total of $14.1B in long-term supply agreements for industrial and automotive applications.
Therefore, QCOM has been sorely misunderstood as a simple "mobile-chip maker," impacting its stock sentiments against the more popular peers. Furthermore, the stock market has been overly obsessed with data centers and PC/gaming chips thus far, therefore, highlighting Advanced Micro Devices' (NASDAQ:AMD), NVDA, and Intel's (INTC) recent fall from grace, after the PC destruction in demand. Meanwhile, ON also remains less covered, despite the tremendous prospects of its Silicon Carbide technology in the EV (notably also used in Tesla (TSLA) under its in-house Chip program), renewable sectors, and IoT through the next decade.
Over the decade, we expect this electrification tsunami to feed the next super-cycle in the semiconductor stock rally. The global EV market will further expand to $1.1T at an accelerated CAGR of 22.5%, against previous projections of 18.2%. IEA also expected the number of EVs on the road to burgeon to 350M by 2030 globally, at an aggressive CAGR of 40.41%. Furthermore, the global IoT market is also expected to expand aggressively from $478.6B in 2022 to $2.46T by 2029 at a CAGR of 26.4%. Thereby, providing QCOM with the much-needed diversification for growth, against the conventional data center and PC/gaming end markets.
QCOM Is Blossoming Brilliantly Above A Simple "Mobile-Chip Maker"
QCOM Projected Revenue, Net Income ( in billion $ ) %, EBIT %, EPS, and FCF %
QCOM's fate was unfortunately sealed, when the management reduced their forward guidance drastically for the next quarter's revenue to between $9.2B and $10B, against the consensus revenue estimate of $12.05B. Thereby, further impacting its EPS negatively to $2.25, against estimates of $3.43. It is no wonder that the stock had plunged by -7.66% post-earnings call, since market analysts have also catastrophically slashed its top and bottom line growths by -13.62% and -21.94% for FY2023, since our previous article in October 2022.
However, we reckon that it is merely a kitchen sink guidance, giving the QCOM management plenty of chances to outperform ahead, due to the robust demand in the automotive sector. The company has smashed estimates for the past seven consecutive quarter, indicating its prudence against NVDA's overly optimistic guidance for FQ2'23 (thereby, triggering the colossal semi-market depression upon the poorer announcement two months after).
Furthermore, assuming that the rumors of China reopening are true, we may see smartphone sales expand by H1'23 as well, though there are new conflicting reports as well. Things will likely remain uncertain in the short term, unfortunately, since the country is responsible for 63.59% of the company's FY2022 revenues.
QCOM EBT Margin Expansion
In the meantime, QCOM investors need not fret, since the management continues to expand its EBT margins exemplarily, especially for the QCT segment, which comprises handsets, 5G products, and automotive, and IoT end markets. Despite the management commentary on slowing handset demand and chips glut, we expect these to be temporal, as inventory level naturally right itself as with the cyclical nature of the market. The automotive and IoT end segments will prove to be the company's backbone through these pessimistic sentiments, proving the bears wrong.
The 5G market alone is already a cherry-topper, due to QCOM's expanding partnership with Verizon (VZ) on the Qualcomm® 5G Fixed Wireless Access Platform. Though the latter has been losing critical post-paid market share to competitors such as AT&T (T) and T-Mobile (TMUS), the overall market demand for high-speed internet has obviously been accelerating. These three telecom companies reported 1.29M new wireless consumer adds in the latest quarter, despite the rising inflationary pressures. Consumers continue to spend an increased 0.5% sequential sum on broadband solutions, according to the latest October CPI report.
Meanwhile, we encourage you to read our previous article, which would help you better understand QCOM's position and market opportunities:
- Qualcomm: No Qualms About Adding Here
So, Is QCOM Stock Buy, Sell, Or Hold?
QCOM 5Y EV/Revenue and P/E Valuations
QCOM remains tremendously undervalued, notably trading at a much cheaper NTM P/E valuation of 12.14x and ON at 15.99x, against NVDA's 41.81x at the same time. These recessionary fears have definitely created a once-in-fifteen-year opportunity for investors with higher risk tolerance and long-term perspective, especially after the tragic corrections thus far. These two companies represent unique and tremendous opportunities for those looking to diversify into automotive/ industrial chip stocks, beyond the usual automotive/EV stocks such as Tesla, General Motors (GM), Ford (F), and NIO (NIO).
QCOM YTD Stock Price
With QCOM's stock tragically moderated by -33.70% YTD, we may see more volatility in the short term, depending on the November CPI report. More are expecting a Fed pivot soon, due to the slowing inflation rate from the October CPI report. The S&P 500 Index has already recovered by 10.16% since hitting bottom in late September, with 75.8% of market analysts projecting a 50 basis point hike. Therefore, we surmise that the stock is still attractive at current levels, due to the consensus price targets of $147.44 and a 25.62% upside.
Meanwhile, QCOM has also reported improving supply chain channels due to the ongoing destruction of demand in the lower-margin PC/ gaming and mid-tier smartphone segments. The tragic inventory correction across these industries has also prompted an opportunistic chance for the company to expand its premium processor offerings in the iPhone, Samsung, and Chinese smartphones. Thereby, improving its ASP and bottom-line growth ahead. Not too bad indeed, since there is no destruction of demand in the automotive and industrial markets.
Naturally, investors that choose to add either at current levels must be comfortable with more volatility in the short term, since it is uncertain if the Feds will truly pivot this early. Furthermore, we expect the terminal rates to be further raised beyond 6%, against the previous projection of 4.6%.
This article was written by
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of QCOM, AMD, NVDA, TMUS. INTC either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
The analysis is provided exclusively for informational purposes and should not be considered professional investment advice. Before investing, please conduct personal in-depth research and utmost due diligence, as there are many risks associated with the trade, including capital loss.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Comments (26)
The central reason for the low QCOM price is that there are few investors left. What we have are two generations of youngsters who buy stocks for next week. Not for next year. Not for the future. That won't change anytime soon. AD | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=52ab7d6084d85280160165ad61866fb70068ca4f0a16b81506df55e2174c0bec | 2 Quantum Computing Stocks To Watch Right Now | Are these the best quantum computing stocks to buy right now? | 2022-11-26T07:37:35 | StockMarket | Quantum computing is a type of computing where information is processed using quantum bits instead of classical bits. Actually, quantum computing has the potential to revolutionize the speed and accuracy of calculations, which could have huge implications for businesses and industries that rely heavily on computers for tasks like data analysis and machine learning.
Next, quantum computing stocks are stocks of companies that are working on developing Quantum Computing technology. As a result, Quantum Computing stocks could potentially offer large returns if Quantum Computers become more commercially available in the future. However, they are also likely to be very volatile, so investing in Quantum Computing stocks is not for the faint-hearted. If this has you keen on investing in the quantum computing sector, here are two quantum computing stocks to watch in the stock market today.
Quantum Computing Stocks To Invest In [Or Sell] Now
- Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL)
- Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA)
Alphabet (GOOGL Stock)
Kicking off the list is tech giant Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL). In brief, Alphabet Inc is an American multinational conglomerate. It is the parent company of Google, YouTube, Nest, and several other companies. Currently, Alphabet is the world’s third-largest technology company by revenue.
Next, Google AI Quantum is built on a state-of-the-art 54-qubit processor branded Sycamore. This is widely known as one of the leading quantum computing projects in the world. In fact, Sycamore performed a calculation in 200 seconds. Why is that relevant? In the report, it showed it would have taken the world’s most powerful supercomputers 10,000 years to complete.
The fact is, Alphabet has potentially built the world’s leading quantum computer. This will help enhance Sycamore’s computing power. Next, through its Google Cloud business, Alphabet can help turn Sycamore into the market leader in quantum computing as a service business. Which in turn can have big potential to add revenue at scale for Alphabet.
GOOGL Stock Chart
Meanwhile, as of Friday’s closing bell shares of GOOGL stock are trading at $97.46 a share.
[Read More] What Stocks To Buy Today? 3 E-Commerce Stocks In Focus
Nvidia (NVDA Stock)
Next, Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) Nvidia designs and manufactures graphics processing units (GPUs) for the gaming and professional markets. Nvidia’s primary GPU product line, “GeForce”, focuses on mainstream consumers. Also, the company also creates chipsets for motherboard manufacturers. As well as, the company’s products are in a wide variety of consumer electronics such as mobile phones, tablets, notebooks, Ultrabooks, PCs, video game consoles, and more.
Back In July, the company announced its hybrid quantum-classical computing platform. Diving in, Nvidia’s unified computing platform helps accelerate breakthroughs in quantum research. As well as development across a wide range of industries. This includes artificial intelligence, health, finance, and others.
Tim Costa, director of HPC and Quantum Computing Products at NVIDIA commented, “Scientific breakthroughs can occur in the near term with hybrid solutions combining classical computing and quantum computing. QODA will revolutionize quantum computing by giving developers a powerful and productive programming model.”
NVDA Stock Chart
Taking a look at the last month of trading, NVDA stock has rallied back by 26.16% as of Friday’s close. Though, shares of NVDA stock are still down over 45% year-to-date. Meanwhile, on Friday, Nvidia stock closed the day at $162.70 a share.
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https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=627b7552e76e2e862626bc57c9ab0c702329aa76a33a8165b8997bf66a3b6e88 | What's Going On With Some of the Biggest Names in Retail? | Emily talks with Sumit Singh, CEO of Chewy, about the pet products industry, when it's OK to lose money on customer acquisition, and why his company is expanding into pet healthcare. To catch full episodes of all The Motley Fool's free podcasts, check out our podcast center. | 2022-11-26T05:00:00 | Yahoo | What's Going On With Some of the Biggest Names in Retail?
Emily talks with Sumit Singh, CEO of Chewy, about the pet products industry, when it's OK to lose money on customer acquisition, and why his company is expanding into pet healthcare. To catch full episodes of all The Motley Fool's free podcasts, check out our podcast center. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=732f7a5a2315a6b5b46484dac235dacf76f1b51f1baa0a8d4bb8d5b567946b32 | Analysts are Upgrading These 9 Tech Stocks | In this article, we will take a look at the 9 tech stocks recently upgraded by analysts. If you want to see more such stocks on the list, go directly to Analysts are Upgrading These 5 Tech Stocks. It was a mixed Friday on Wall Street, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closing lower and […] | 2022-11-25T15:22:22 | Yahoo | Analysts are Upgrading These 9 Tech Stocks
In this article, we will take a look at the 9 tech stocks recently upgraded by analysts. If you want to see more such stocks on the list, go directly to Analysts are Upgrading These 5 Tech Stocks.
It was a mixed Friday on Wall Street, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closing lower and Dow Jones Industrial Average ending up in green. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was partly brought down by Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), which fell nearly two percent today.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares moved down this morning after multiple news agencies reported a drop in iPhone shipments due to production delays in a Foxconn facility in China. While renewed Covid-19 restrictions in China have weighed on the global tech sector, analysts continue to improve their ratings for tech stocks. NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) and Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAT), were among the notable tech stocks that were recently upgraded by analysts.
Summit Insights upgraded NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) as the research firm thinks the stock offers a favorable risk reward. On the other hand, Baird improved its ratings for Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD), citing confidence in its new line of CPUs. Check out the complete article to see the details of these upgrades.
Portogas D Ace/Shutterstock.com
9. SAP SE (NYSE:SAP)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 17
SAP SE (NYSE:SAP) is a leading software company based in Germany. It is best known for its enterprise resource planning (ERP) software that helps clients efficiently manage business operations and customer relations.
The German company recently received an upgrade from Barclays. The research firm improved its ratings for SAP SE (NYSE:SAP) from “Equal-Weight” to “Overweight” on Monday, November 21.
Barclays analyst Raimo Lenschow believes that shifting to the cloud or subscription-based models would likely benefit European software stocks, including SAP SE (NYSE:SAP).
Meanwhile, SAP SE (NYSE:SAP) continues to do well in cloud space. Its cloud revenue jumped 38 percent in the third quarter. During the Q3 earnings call last month, the company’s senior leadership expressed optimism about SAP’s future cloud growth.
8. Altair Engineering Inc. (NASDAQ:ALTR)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 19
Needham issued a “Buy” rating for Altair Engineering Inc. (NASDAQ:ALTR) last week. Analyst Charles Shi thinks the software company will show resilience in a recessionary macro environment, helped by its core simulation business.
Shi expects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10 percent and an EBITDA margin expansion of 20 percent for Altair Engineering Inc. (NASDAQ:ALTR). He has a price target of $60 per share for the stock, compared to its current trading price of around $47.
Like Altair Engineering Inc. (NASDAQ:ALTR), analysts also updated their recommendations for NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) and Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAT).
7. Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:SHLS)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 21
Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:SHLS) is engaged in providing electrical balance of system solutions for EV charging, energy storage and solar. Its share price recently climbed to a new 52-week high following its impressive financial performance for the third quarter.
In response to solid results, Northland analyst Donovan Schafer raised his ratings for Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:SHLS) from “Market Perform” to “Outperform” last week.
Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:SHLS) reported adjusted earnings of 10 cents per share, compared to 7 cents per share in the same period of 2021. Revenue for the quarter soared 52 percent on a year-over-year basis to $90.8 million. The results easily surpassed analysts’ average estimate of 8 cents per share for earnings and $83.07 million for revenue.
While Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:SHLS) is still in its early growth stages, it is doing well by inking deals with new clients, designing new products and growing its footprint in the overseas market. Even though most stocks struggled to gain value this year, Shoals shares have jumped nearly 30 percent on a year-to-date basis.
6. Sensata Technologies Holding plc (NYSE:ST)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 31
Jefferies upgraded Sensata Technologies Holding plc (NYSE:ST) from “Hold” to “Buy” on Tuesday, November 22. Analyst David Kelley pointed towards the company’s heavy spending across its megatrend growth areas.
Moving forward, Kelley sees Sensata Technologies Holding plc (NYSE:ST) accelerating its margin expansion. He also lifted his price target for Sensata stock from $43 per share to $54 per share.
Last month, Sensata Technologies Holding plc (NYSE:ST) delivered mixed financial results for the third quarter. The industrial technology company reported adjusted earnings of 85 cents per share, down 2.3 percent on a year-over-year basis. Revenue came in at $1.018 billion, up from $951 million in the corresponding period of 2021. Analysts were looking for earnings of 85 cents per share on revenue of $1.01 billion.
Click to continue reading and see Analysts are Upgrading These 5 Tech Stocks.
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Disclosure: None. Analysts are Upgrading These 9 Tech Stocks is originally published on Insider Monkey. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=4217436a20065b12ffc8efb311405cebac74dbca898d2b9b32d8afa516867251 | Was Alexander West’s Blue Pool Capital Right About These 10 Stocks? | In this article, we discuss the top 10 stock picks of Alexander West’s Blue Pool Capital as of the end of the third quarter of 2021 and assess their performance over the past 12 months. If you want to skip our detailed analysis of West’s history, investment philosophy, and hedge fund performance, go directly to […] | 2022-11-25T11:40:47 | Yahoo | Was Alexander West’s Blue Pool Capital Right About These 10 Stocks?
In this article, we discuss the top 10 stock picks of Alexander West's Blue Pool Capital as of the end of the third quarter of 2021 and assess their performance over the past 12 months. If you want to skip our detailed analysis of West's history, investment philosophy, and hedge fund performance, go directly to Was Alexander West's Blue Pool Capital Right About These 5 Stocks?
We prepared the actual contents of this article in January this year, when we analyzed the Q3 portfolio of Alexander West's Blue Pool Capital to discuss the top 10 picks of the hedge fund at that time. We are publishing this article today because it’s always interesting for the readers to analyze how good the so-called “smart money” is when it comes to stock picking. When we look at the stock picks/sells of hedge funds in hindsight, we can better analyze their performance and see whether they were right or wrong.
In this article you will see the top 10 stock picks of Alexander West's Blue Pool Capital as of the third quarter of last year.
To assess the performance of these stocks and the hedge fund, we have mentioned their performance over the past 12 months through November 25.
At the time of writing we had mentioned analyst ratings for these stocks from famous Wall Street analysts. It’d be interesting for our readers to see how right or wrong were these analysts’ price targets and calls.
However, we should keep the 2022 market crash in mind when reading this article. You will notice that most of the stocks in this list lost value over the past 12 months. That doesn’t, however, mean that the hedge fund was entirely wrong. The fund believes in holding stocks for longer periods of time. These holdings might end up creating profits for the hedge fund in the months and years to come as analysts believe the market could rebound strongly in 2023 and beyond.
Alexander West is the founder, managing partner, and chief investment officer of Blue Pool Capital, a Hong Kong-based hedge fund with a portfolio worth $1.39 billion as of Q3 2021. Blue Pool Capital invests mainly in the healthcare, information technology, finance, consumer discretionary, and communications sectors.
Alexander West graduated from the Stockholm School of Economics in 1990. He joined Investor AB in 1995 as its president, which is a Stockholm-based investment management firm that owns high-quality global companies. He remained with Investor AB till 2000, and started Blue Pool Capital in 2004.
Source:Pixabay
10. Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE:TMO)
Blue Pool Capital’s Stake Value: $23,539,000
Stock performance over the past 12 months through November 25: -13%
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE:TMO) is a Massachusetts-based company offering laboratory equipment, scientific instrumentation, reagents and consumables, and software solutions. Blue Pool Capital owns 41,200 shares of Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE:TMO), worth $23.5 million, representing 1.69% of the fund’s total Q3 investments.
Wells Fargo analyst Dan Leonard raised the price target on Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE:TMO) to $700 from $625 and kept an Equal Weight rating on the shares on December 14.
Among the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey, Generation Investment Management is one of the leading Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE:TMO) stakeholders from Q3 2021, with 1.68 million shares worth $962.4 million.
Here is what ClearBridge Investments has to say about Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE:TMO) in its Q2 2021 investor letter:
“Two additional names in the health care sector in the quarter, partially funded with a sale, made strong contributions and helped push our relative exposure to the sector from underweight to overweight. We added Thermo Fisher Scientific to increase our exposure to health care tools, which has been an attractive and core segment within health care. Thermo Fisher’s instruments are used to monitor and protect air, water, and food quality, and the company has strong long-term fundamentals, a top-tier management team and a diversified business.”
9. Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG)
Blue Pool Capital’s Stake Value: $23,834,000
Stock performance over the past 12 months through November 25: -7.9%
Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG), a Connecticut-based travel technology company, is one of the best stocks to buy according to Alexander West's Blue Pool Capital. Air and travel stocks bounced after the CDC reduced the COVID-19 isolation time to five days, since this allows greater flexibility in scheduling flights.
Blue Pool Capital increased its position in Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG) by 32% in the third quarter, holding 10,040 shares of the company, worth $23.8 million, representing 1.71% of the firm’s total Q3 securities.
Jefferies analyst John Colantuoni on January 7 assumed coverage of Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG) with a Buy rating and a $3,100 price target as he took over the primary coverage of the Online Travel space. The analyst sees Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG)’s exposure to nascent travel markets, allowing it seven years of over 15% EPS growth.
Here is what L1 Capital has to say about Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG) in its Q3 2021 investor letter:
“We reinvested the proceeds from our successful investment in Thermo Fisher in Booking Holdings (Booking). Booking was an investment in the Fund at Inception and was featured in our inaugural June 2019 Quarterly Report. The company owns the world’s largest online travel agent (OTA), Booking.com. To say the past 2.5 years has been volatile for Booking is a major understatement. Booking’s management has had to address the COVID-19-driven collapse in demand for travel accommodation, as well as to manage volatile demand as the world gradually recovers, interrupted by second and third waves of COVID-19 as variants arise.
Throughout these volatile market conditions, Booking’s management has executed against a consistent strategy, investing in its platform and network of accommodation providers, and expanding its associated services while improving efficiencies. We believe Booking will come out of the COVID-19 environment a stronger business, with less competition and consumers more predisposed to booking their travel accommodation online. Travel is recovering strongly as vaccination rates increase and COVID-19 related restrictions are lifted, and we expect Booking’s earnings and cash flow to also recover strongly over the coming years.”
8. NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)
Blue Pool Capital’s Stake Value: $26,814,000
Stock performance over the past 12 months through November 25: -48%
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) is a multinational technology company based in Delaware, designing graphics processing units and chips for the gaming, mobile computing, and automotive markets. Blue Pool Capital increased its stake in NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) by 300% during the third quarter, with 129,436 shares, worth $26.8 million. The NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock represents 1.92% of the fund’s total Q3 investments.
Citi analyst Atif Malik opened a "Positive Catalyst Watch" on shares of NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) after the Consumer Electronics Show. Management commented on the "strong" holiday gaming season, "solid" data center demand trends, and gaming/networking foundry supply improvements in the second half of the year.
Here is what Harding Loevner Global Equity Fund has to say about NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) in its Q3 2021 investor letter:
“The proliferation of devices using chips, whether EVs, “things” in lol, or embedded systems more generally, results in the generation of oceans of data potentially needing to be stored, processed, and analyzed. NVIDIA, the leading chip designer well known for its graphic processing units and its complementary CUDA software ecosystem, is at the forefront of the effort to provide the analytical platform needed to unlock the full potential of such specialist processors.”
7. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH)
Blue Pool Capital’s Stake Value: $31,702,000
Stock performance over the past 12 months through November 25: +22%
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) is a Minnesota-based multinational healthcare and insurance company, and it is the largest insurance company by net premiums. Blue Pool Capital owns a $31.70 million stake in UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) as of September 2021, representing 2.28% of the fund’s Q3 securities.
Truist analyst David MacDonald on January 5 raised the price target on UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) to $575 from $520 and kept a Buy rating on the shares as part of a broader research note on Healthcare Services.
Here is what Third Point Management has to say about UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) in its Q3 2021 investor letter:
“UnitedHealth is one of the largest healthcare companies in the world and a market leader in both its insurance and healthcare services (Optum) businesses. We initiated our position during the 2020 Presidential election at a time of heightened political and regulatory uncertainty.
We believe under its new CEO, Andrew Witty, UnitedHealth can not only preserve its market dominance and sustain industry-leading growth rates across most of its key segments but also enter new healthcare services markets. Witty is known as a mission-driven CEO who clearly articulates his view that providing high-quality, affordable health care services is a social good. He receives consistently high marks from former colleagues, and we believe that his leadership approach will ballast and even strengthen UNH’s already impressive management and employee ranks. The insurance and services businesses are synergistic and complementary, which entrenches United’s critical role in care financing, access, and management. This dynamic gives us confidence in the durability of United’s market leadership…” (Click here to see the full text)
6. Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:FB)
Blue Pool Capital’s Stake Value: $37,736,000
Stock performance over the past 12 months through November 25: -66%
Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:FB), the parent company of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, is one of the top stock picks of Alexander West’s Blue Pool Capital. In the third quarter of 2021, the hedge fund owned 111,187 shares of Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:FB), worth $37.7 million. The stock accounts for 2.71% of the Q3 portfolio of Blue Pool Capital.
Loop Capital analyst Alan Gould lowered the price target on Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:FB) to $380 from $420 but kept a Buy rating on the shares on December 20. The analyst stated investors will keenly focus on the extent of Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:FB)’s spending on the Metaverse over the next several years and how rapidly the spending at Facebook Reality Labs will increase from the $10 billion already spent in 2021.
Here is what Canterbury Tollgate has to say about Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:FB) in its Q3 2021 investor letter:
“To say traditional media is anti-Facebook would not be an overstatement. An already intense and multi-year critique of (or attack on) Facebook has ratcheted up in recent weeks. Facebook’s research efforts have been reported on, if often derided, for nearly a decade. Going back to 2014, Slate.com called their research practices “unethical” when FB tried to study the impact social posts had on users. Now those efforts have been turned against them for the kill shot.
My job is to observe, assess, and allocate. Not to commentate on all the whims and wishes of media narrative. However, in the case of Facebook I cannot avoid going into some detail re: the onslaught against them, which I find to be most unwarranted and insincere.
Last month the Wall Street Journal ran a five-piece series titled “The Facebook Files” which allegedly shows how toxic Instagram is for teens. The foundation of their argument was a single slide from an internal presentation claiming, based on FB’s own research, that of teens who had a negative self-image, one-third said Instagram “made them feel worse.”iii Somehow the implication here is that this is not an inescapable aspect of either the human psyche and/or society-at large, but that it is of Facebook’s doing…” (Click here to see the full text)
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Disclosure: None. Was Alexander West's Blue Pool Capital Right About These 10 Stocks? is originally published on Insider Monkey. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=67528ccb1124704fbd725b134f287ec97a8a4ef36e1d156b78d83d83e3016867 | Obama Stock Portfolio: 10 Year Returns | In this article, we discuss the 10-year returns of the Obama stock portfolio. If you want to read about some more stocks in the Obama stock portfolio, go directly to Obama Stock Portfolio: 10 Year Returns and Top 5 Stocks. Former United States President Barack Obama presided over one of the worst recessions in US […] | 2022-11-25T11:17:05 | Yahoo | Obama Stock Portfolio: 10 Year Returns
In this article, we discuss the 10-year returns of the Obama stock portfolio. If you want to read about some more stocks in the Obama stock portfolio, go directly to Obama Stock Portfolio: 10 Year Returns and Top 5 Stocks.
Former United States President Barack Obama presided over one of the worst recessions in US history. But the stock market saw new highs during his tenure. Obama, a still somewhat divisive figure in the finance world, has been on record saying that he has invested in the Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares (NASDAQ:VFINX) and the US Treasury Bills. Obama, whose personal net worth is estimated to be in the tens of millions, has also invested in college savings plans for his daughters.
10-Year Returns of Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares (NASDAQ:VFINX)
Per latest figures, over the past five years, the Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares (NASDAQ:VFINX) has returned more than 52% to investors. Over the past ten years, these returns are even more impressive, clocking in at more than 150%. In November 2012, the share price of the fund was around $125. As of November 25, it stands at over $370.
Our Methodology
These were picked from among the top holdings of Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares (NASDAQ:VFINX), one of the premier investments of Barack Obama when he was in office, according to official disclosures. Data from around 900 elite hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey in the third quarter of 2022 was used to identify the number of hedge funds that hold stakes in each firm.
Photo by History in HD on Unsplash
Obama Stock Portfolio: 10 Year Returns
10. Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 88
Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems. It is one of the best stocks in the Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares (NASDAQ:VFINX) in which Obama had stakes in during his time in the office. On November 1, Tesla demonstrated the beta version of its driver assistance system for California transportation officials, including outside consultants. Tesla markets the demo of this system as Full Self Driving.
On October 24, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas maintained an Overweight rating on Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock and lowered the price target to $330 from $350, noting that the company's Q3 report, while in line with consensus expectations, was both stronger and higher quality than expected.
At the end of the third quarter of 2022, 88 hedge funds in the database of Insider Monkey held stakes worth $7.4 billion in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), compared to 73 in the preceding quarter worth $7.2 billion.
Just like Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), and Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) is one of the best stocks in the Obama had stakes in during his time in the office.
In its Q2 2022 investor letter, Baron Funds, an asset management firm, highlighted a few stocks and Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) was one of them. Here is what the fund said:
“In 2014, before we began to invest in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), I called Roger to ask whether he thought Elon Musk’s electric car business would succeed. I did not believe that Roger, an owner of dealerships that sell cars powered by internal combustion engines (ICE) would likely have a favorable opinion of Tesla’s prospects. That was principally for two reasons:
First, automobile manufacturing and distribution is unusually complicated, capital intensive, and highly regulated, which makes profitability problematic; second, cars with ICE motors require extensive annual maintenance, and dealer services revenues, not profits from automobile sales, are the most important contributor to profits of perpetual licensed ICE car dealerships.
Penske Automotive Group is principally an ICE car dealer. Since electric cars are powered by batteries and need little service, franchised dealerships are incented to sell ICE, not EV automobiles. Further, Roger had been a long-term director of General Motors. General Motors’ ICE automobile business would be disrupted if Tesla were successful. (click here to read more…)
9. NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 89
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) provides graphics, computing and networking solutions. It is one of the top stocks in the Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares (NASDAQ:VFINX) in which Obama had stakes in during his time in the office. On November 3, NVIDIA released a hotfix for its latest Game Ready driver which will fix the issues raised by some players on 28 October by Call of Duty’s lead PC studio Beenox.
On October 25, Needham analyst Rajvindra Gill maintained a Buy rating on NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock and lowered the price target to $155 from $170, noting that the company should continue to deliver strong prints during the Q3 earnings season.
Among the hedge funds being tracked by Insider Monkey, Chicago-based investment firm Citadel Investment Group is a leading shareholder in NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) with 19.2 million shares worth more than $2.3 billion.
In its Q2 2022 investor letter, Baron Funds, an asset management firm, highlighted a few stocks and NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) was one of them. Here is what the fund said:
“At the company-specific level, there was a broad correction across the entire portfolio. While four of our holdings contributed to performance, the contribution to absolute returns was less than 100bps combined, as unfortunately none of them was large enough to move the needle. We had 16 investments detracting over 100bps each with NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), our second largest detractor, costing the Fund 254bps.
NVIDIA’s stock was hit even harder, down 44.4%, impacted by concerns over the health of the consumer, dramatic declines in crypto, and COVID-related lockdowns in China. Despite the sell-off and the increased near-term volatility in its gaming business, NVIDIA’s revenues grew 46% year-over-year with 48% operating margins, driven by continued strength in its data center business as companies across industries adopt AI and ML…(read more)”
8. Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE:BRK-B)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 104
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-B) engages in insurance, freight rail transportation, and utility businesses. It is one of the elite stocks in the Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares (NASDAQ:VFINX) in which Obama had stakes in during his time in the office. On October 14, Berkshire Hathaway and Alleghany Corp, an insurance company, revealed that they have received all regulatory approvals which are needed for Berkshire Hathaway’s proposed acquisition of Alleghany Corporation.
Among the hedge funds being tracked by Insider Monkey, Chicago-based investment firm Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Trust is a leading shareholder in Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-B) with 29.7 million shares worth more than $7.9 billion.
In its Q1 2022 investor letter, Diamond Hill Capital, an asset management firm, highlighted a few stocks and Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-B) was one of them. Here is what the fund said:
“Diversified holding company Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-B) reported strong earnings during the quarter and benefited from continued share repurchases below intrinsic value. The company also announced significant deployments of excess cash during the quarter, including the acquisition of Alleghany and a large increase in its stake in Occidental Petroleum.”
7. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 110
United Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) operates as a diversified healthcare company in the United States. It is one of the premier stocks in the Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares (NASDAQ:VFINX) in which Obama had stakes in during his time in the office. On October 14, UnitedHealth Group posted earnings for the third quarter of 2022, reporting earnings per share of $5.79, beating market estimates by $0.35. The revenue over the period was $80.98 billion, up 11.8% compared to the revenue over the same period last year and beating market estimates by $360 million.
On October 18, Deutsche Bank analyst George Hill maintained a Buy rating on UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) stock and raised the price target to $615 from $569, highlighting that the company posted solid third quarters results on broad-based strength as membership growth remains robust and value-based arrangements continue to expand.
At the end of the third quarter of 2022, 110 hedge funds in the database of Insider Monkey held stakes worth $10.3 billion in United Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH), compared to 91 in the preceding quarter worth $10.9 billion.
In its Q2 2022 investor letter, Carillon Tower Advisers, an asset management firm, highlighted a few stocks and United Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) was one of them. Here is what the fund said:
“UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) reported solid quarterly results and raised 2022 guidance modestly. Additionally, managed care is another industry that is viewed as defensive in the current environment, which helped support UnitedHealth and its peer group.”
6. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 110
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) operates as a financial services company worldwide. It is one of the major stocks in the Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares (NASDAQ:VFINX) in which Obama had stakes in during his time in the office. On October 31, JPMorgan Chase noted that it is testing a payments platform that automates the receipt and invoicing of online rent payments, part of the bank’s immense investment in technology as it tends to compete with fintech startups.
On October 17, BMO Capital analyst James Fotheringham maintained a Market Perform rating on JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) stock and raised the price target to $158 from $149, noting that the company's pre-provision net revenue grew 13% sequentially and that its share repurchases should also resume in Q1 of next year.
At the end of the third quarter of 2022, 110 hedge funds in the database of Insider Monkey held stakes worth $6.4 billion in JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM), compared to 104 in the preceding quarter worth $5.8 billion.
In addition to Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), and Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) is one of the best stocks in the Obama had stakes in during his time in the office.
In its Q1 2022 investor letter, Carillon Tower Advisers, an asset management firm, highlighted a few stocks and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) was one of them. Here is what the fund said:
“More cyclical sectors, including technology and consumer discretionary, were among the weakest, likely due to rising interest rates and inflation. It was encouraging to see the quarter finish on a strong note with the S&P 500 only about 5% away from its all-time highs. Shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) detracted from performance due to the company’s increased expense guidance, announced in January.”
Click to continue reading and see Obama Stock Portfolio: 10 Year Returns and Top 5 Stocks.
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Disclosure. None. Obama Stock Portfolio: 10 Year Returns is originally published on Insider Monkey. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=3323187bfb5c4504c0137bac9d234b7bdc62c9e996ec7e23f412cf8313db42c0 | 3 Tech Stocks You Can Count on in This Uncertain Market | 2022 was a tough one for tech stocks. Most were walloped with higher interest rates, fears of aggressive rate hikes, geopolitical issues, economic concerns, and fed-up consumers. It chased even the sanest investors from the market. While it’s impossible to find a risk-free investment, some are safer than others – especially if they’re leaders in their sectors, with wide economic moats. In fact, one of the best ways to spot strong tech stocks is to follow the Warren Buffett model, which is to inv | 2022-11-25T10:37:26 | Yahoo | 3 Tech Stocks You Can Count on in This Uncertain Market
2022 was a tough one for tech stocks. Most were walloped with higher interest rates, fears of aggressive rate hikes, geopolitical issues, economic concerns, and fed-up consumers. It chased even the sanest investors from the market. While it’s impossible to find a risk-free investment, some are safer than others – especially if they’re leaders in their sectors, with wide economic moats.
In fact, one of the best ways to spot strong tech stocks is to follow the Warren Buffett model, which is to invest in simple companies that are easy to understand; companies with predictable and proven earnings; companies that can be bought at a reasonable price; and companies with “economic moat,” or a unique advantage over its competition. Seeing that Warren Buffett is now worth about $108.2 billion, it’s a safe bet he knows a thing or two about safe investing.
InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips
Apple (AAPL)
Source: Vytautas Kielaitis / Shutterstock.com
With a diversified revenue stream, and an ability to adapt to new consumer trends, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) will always be one of the strong tech stocks to bet on. Even Warren Buffett once said he continues to invest in Apple because of its brand, ecosystem, and strong economic moat.
In addition, we have to consider that Apple is a global leader in innovation. Just look at the iPhone alone. First introduced to the public in 2007, it’s now one of the most popular mobile phones in the world, with a growing market share. Better, earnings have been solid.
The company just beat expectations on revenue and profits, and it showed that global demand for its products is still high. In its fourth quarter, the company’s revenue was up 8% to $90 billion. Mac sales were up 25% to $11.5 billion in the quarter. iPhone sales were up 10% to $42.6 billion. Operating income was up by 5% to $25 billion. EPS was up 4% to $1.29, putting it above expectations for $1.27.
Also, analysts, such as Deutsche Bank’s Sidney Ho, say Apple is trading at a reasonable valuation and has a buy rating with a price target of $175. Apple also carries a dividend yield of 0.66%, and it’s been aggressive with stock buybacks.
Tech Stocks: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Source: JHVEPhoto / Shutterstock.com
Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) was butchered for most of the year. But that’ll happen when most of the tech stock sector is dragging just about everything lower. However, after falling from about $150 to a low of about $60, the AMD stock is showing strong signs of life. With patience, I’d like to see the AMD stock run from its current price of $75.25 to $120 in the near term.
Analysts like the AMD stock, too. UBS upgraded AMD to a buy rating with a price target of $95 a share. Baird analyst Tristan Gerra also just upgraded the beaten-down tech name to outperform with a price target of $100. He believes the company’s newest Genoa chips could widen the company’s competitive moat. Credit Suisse analyst Chris Caso also initiated coverage of AMD with an outperform rating, with a price target of $90.
Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar is also overweight on the stock, with a price target of $90. He added that earnings appear to be bottoming and that PC inventory should start to clear out in the early part of 2023. In addition, he believes AMD is a great way to trade the server uptrend and cloud strength.
Tech Stocks: Nvidia (NVDA)
Source: Michael Vi / Shutterstock.com
While Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) was cut in half this year, it’s still one quality, safe name investors can count on. For one, the company makes the chips that are used to power some of the world’s most advanced technologies, including gaming, supercomputing, the cloud, artificial intelligence, machine learning, virtual reality, augmented reality, autonomous driving, etc. Again, NVDA was destroyed in 2022. But it’s still a high-quality name to count on.
Better, it’s also getting a jump on the Industrial Omniverse, which is already being used by major companies, like Lowe’s (NYSE: LOW), BMW (OTCMKTS:BMWYY), Siemens (OTCMKTS:SIEGY), and Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT).
Analysts, like Credit Suisse’s Chris Casso, say there’s been enough bad news for semiconductors to lower the risk of investing. The firm also said Nvidia was one of its top picks thanks to its strength in artificial intelligence, computing, and data centers. Better, the firm now has an outperform rating on the stock, with a $210 price target. Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar also sees a near-term turnaround for Nvidia and has an overweight rating on the stock. For me, from a current price of $160.38, I’d like to see the stock run back to $195 by the first half of the New Year.
On the date of publication, Ian Cooper did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Ian Cooper, a contributor to InvestorPlace.com, has been analyzing stocks and options for web-based advisories since 1999.
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https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=00b73c06fc6f7103976a5cf5a7d46e826341c8f9bd61bf25169d2fd2cb2bb99b | 12 Best Nancy Pelosi Stocks to Buy Now | In this article, we discuss the 12 best Nancy Pelosi stocks to buy now. If you want to read about some more Nancy Pelosi stocks, go directly to 5 Best Nancy Pelosi Stocks to Buy Now. The stock trading activities of lawmakers in the United States have always made for interesting case studies. This is […] | 2022-11-25T06:28:02 | Yahoo | 12 Best Nancy Pelosi Stocks to Buy Now
In this article, we discuss the 12 best Nancy Pelosi stocks to buy now. If you want to read about some more Nancy Pelosi stocks, go directly to 5 Best Nancy Pelosi Stocks to Buy Now.
The stock trading activities of lawmakers in the United States have always made for interesting case studies. This is because a sizable number of US lawmakers engage in stock trading. Until the past few years, making large amounts of money from these trades was considered a side-benefit of winning a seat in the US Congress. In order to make these trades more transparent, the STOCK Act of April 2012 was passed, requiring lawmakers to disclose their stock trading through a Periodic Transaction Report within 45 days of the transaction.
Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives since 2019, is one of the most active stock traders in the US Congress. Her husband, Paul Pelosi, runs a venture capital firm. Some of the top stocks in the Nancy Pelosi stock portfolio include prominent names like Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), and Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:FB). Lately, Pelosi has been quietly buying the dip on tech stocks that have witnessed a large correction in their prices due to rising interest rates.
Our Methodology
The companies listed below were picked from the Periodic Transaction Report(s) that US politicians who trade stocks are obliged to file. It is important to clarify that the stocks listed below were picked from the public record of investments Nancy Pelosi and her family have made in the past few months. The purchases may not have been made by Pelosi herself but only disclosed on behalf of her husband, Paul Pelosi, who runs a venture capital firm. Data from around 900 elite hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey in the third quarter of 2022 was used to identify the number of hedge funds that hold stakes in each firm.
Best Nancy Pelosi Stocks to Buy Now
12. AllianceBernstein Holding L.P. (NYSE:AB)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 4
AllianceBernstein Holding L.P. (NYSE:AB) is a publicly owned, investment manager. It is one of the best stocks in the Nancy Pelosi stock portfolio. On September 14, AllianceBernstein Holding and AllianceBernstein L.P. disclosed the launch of the first set of active exchange-traded funds or ETFs. The two ETFs are Ab Ultra-Short Income ETF and AB Tax Aware Short Duration Municipal ETF. According to a Periodic Transaction Report from February 28, Pelosi purchased 10,000 shares in AllianceBernstein Holding L.P. (NYSE:AB) worth between 250,000 and $500,000.
Among the hedge funds being tracked by Insider Monkey, Chicago-based investment firm PEAK6 Capital Management is a leading shareholder in AllianceBernstein Holding L.P. (NYSE:AB) with 777,000 shares worth more than $27 million.
Just like Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), and Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:FB), AllianceBernstein Holding L.P. (NYSE:AB) is one of the stocks in the Nancy Pelosi stock portfolio.
11. Roblox Corporation (NYSE:RBLX)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 38
Roblox Corporation (NYSE:RBLX) develops and operates an online entertainment platform. It is one of the top stocks in the Nancy Pelosi stock portfolio. According to a Periodic Transaction Report from late December, Pelosi purchased 100 CALL options on Roblox Corporation (NYSE:RBLX) stock with a strike price of $100 and an expiration date of early 2023, worth between 250,000 and $500,000.
On October 18, Stifel analyst Drew Crum maintained a Buy rating on Roblox Corporation (NYSE:RBLX) stock and lowered the price target to $48 from $50, noting that the changes to second-half booking estimates reflected positive comps and accelerating growth.
Among the hedge funds being tracked by Insider Monkey, New York-based investment firm Renaissance Technologies is a leading shareholder in Roblox Corporation (NYSE:RBLX) with 10.6 million shares worth more than $380 million.
In its Q4 2021 investor letter, Tao Value, an asset management firm, highlighted a few stocks and Roblox Corporation (NYSE:RBLX) was one of them. Here is what the fund said:
“Roblox Corporation (NYSE:RBLX) got significantly more attention from both institutional & retail investors after Facebook announced to rename itself as Meta Platforms. I believe the price appreciation is largely attributed to the increased attention. On the business side, Roblox rolled out a few successful music events and also partnered with Netflix on testing long-form media consumption in the virtual world. Apple in its iOS 14.5 rolled out an impactful change for the digital advertising landscape by requiring all apps to ask users to “opt-in”.
10. American Express Company (NYSE:AXP)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 68
American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) provides charge and credit payment card products and travel-related services. It is one of the major stocks in the Nancy Pelosi stock portfolio. On October 18, Simon Property Group and fintech firm Cardless revealed that they have agreed to introduce a credit card of American Express which gives their users up to 3% cash back on eligible purchases made at Simon’s shopping malls. Simon American Express cards offer 5% back on eligible purchases at participating Simon destination detailers. A financial disclosure report shows that Pelosi exercised 50 CALL options (5,000 shares) on American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) shares in January 2022 at a strike price of $80. The report is dated late February 2022 and signed by Pelosi herself.
On October 24, BMO Capital analyst James Fotheringham maintained a Market Perform rating on American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) stock and raised the price target to $166 from $163, noting that the company reported higher net interest income and lower costs and has also proven more resilient this rate cycle, despite its liability-sensitive balance sheet and growing consumer credit exposure.
Among the hedge funds being tracked by Insider Monkey, Omaha-based investment firm Berkshire Hathaway is a leading shareholder in American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) with 151.6 million shares worth more than $20 billion.
In its Q2 2022 investor letter, ClearBridge Investments, an asset management firm, highlighted a few stocks and American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) was one of them. Here is what the fund said:
“In financials, American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) has done an excellent job demonstrating the resiliency of its franchise amid a global pandemic that drove a 60% decline in its core travel and entertainment business. The company’s spend-centric model has been helped by fiscal stimulus ensuring a flush consumer, while management continues to execute well by adding millions of new consumer and small and medium business accounts, which should benefit the franchise over the medium to long term. We remain optimistic regarding the company’s prospects as travel and entertainment activity rebounds, adding to our position in the quarter.”
9. Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 74
Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) designs, manufactures and sells memory and storage products worldwide. It is one of the premier stocks in the Nancy Pelosi stock portfolio. On October 21, Micron Technology noted that it had signed a license and settlement agreement with subsidiaries of Wi-LAN. In this deal, Micron obtained a license to patents owned by Wi-LAN’s wholly owned subsidiaries, Innovative Memory Solutions, North Star Innovations, and Cetus Technologies. A regulatory filing dated late last year reveals that Pelosi purchased 100 CALL options worth somewhere between $500,000 and $1,000,000 in Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) stock on December 17. The transaction was disclosed the same day it was made.
On September 30, BMO Capital analyst Ambrish Srivastava maintained an Outperform rating on Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) stock and lowered the price target to $70 from $80, noting that the company's Q4 results were fine but its Q1 guidance was well below expectations.
At the end of the third quarter of 2022, 74 hedge funds in the database of Insider Monkey held stakes worth $2.5 billion in Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU), compared to 69 in the preceding quarter worth $2.1 billion.
In its Q2 2022 investor letter, Meridian Funds, an asset management firm, highlighted a few stocks and Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) was one of them. Here is what the fund said:
“Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) is a leader in the production of DRAM and NAND memory. We invested in the stock in the third quarter of 2019 during a cyclical downturn in the memory industry. Our rationale was that, while the memory industry is cyclical, we believed there are strong secular drivers in place that will lead to higher peaks and long-term growth. Our secular thesis is based on our conviction that the quest for ever-increasing compute speeds will increasingly rely on memory to solve bottlenecks and that increased memory content in nearly everything from mobile phones to automobiles will drive demand. Micron’s stock traded lower during the quarter due to macroeconomic concerns that led to lower earnings expectations. We increased our stake in the company, as we believe our secular thesis remains intact. We wanted to take advantage of what we view as temporary cyclical concerns that caused the stock to trade at less than 10x reasonable trough earnings per share (EPS) estimates and less than 7x recent peak EPS.”
8. Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 88
Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems. It is one of the prominent stocks in the Nancy Pelosi stock portfolio. On November 2, Tesla announced that it had closed its first flagship showroom in Beijing’s Parkview Green, an upscale downtown shopping center, late last week in a bid to adjust its sales and service strategy in its second-largest market. Mandatory filings from late March show that Pelosi exercised 25 CALL options on Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock worth somewhere around $1,000,000 and $5,000,000 on March 17. The strike price was $500 and the options were due to expire on March 18.
On October 20, Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner maintained a Buy rating on Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock and lowered the price target to $355 from $390, noting that the company reported a Q3 earnings miss compared to expectations, with mostly in-line revenue but weaker gross margins, and is still positioned to deliver a record Q4 as its factories continue to scale globally.
At the end of the third quarter of 2022, 88 hedge funds in the database of Insider Monkey held stakes worth $7.3 billion in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), compared to 73 in the preceding quarter worth $7.1 billion.
In its Q2 2022 investor letter, Baron Funds, an asset management firm, highlighted a few stocks and Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) was one of them. Here is what the fund said:
“In 2014, before we began to invest in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), I called Roger to ask whether he thought Elon Musk’s electric car business would succeed. I did not believe that Roger, an owner of dealerships that sell cars powered by internal combustion engines (ICE) would likely have a favorable opinion of Tesla’s prospects. That was principally for two reasons:
First, automobile manufacturing and distribution is unusually complicated, capital intensive, and highly regulated, which makes profitability problematic; second, cars with ICE motors require extensive annual maintenance, and dealer services revenues, not profits from automobile sales, are the most important contributor to profits of perpetual licensed ICE car dealerships.
Penske Automotive Group is principally an ICE car dealer. Since electric cars are powered by batteries and need little service, franchised dealerships are incented to sell ICE, not EV automobiles. Further, Roger had been a long-term director of General Motors. General Motors’ ICE automobile business would be disrupted if Tesla were successful. (click here to read more…)
7. NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 89
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) provides graphics, computing and networking solutions. It is one of the elite stocks in the Nancy Pelosi stock portfolio. According to the data available publicly, the House Speaker bought 5,000 shares in the firm worth somewhere between $500,000 and $1,000,000 in late July this year.
On October 24, Barclays analyst Blayne Curtis maintained an Overweight rating on NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock and lowered the price target to $140 from $190, noting that the company expects material cuts through earnings in radio frequency, memory and PC.
Among the hedge funds being tracked by Insider Monkey, Chicago-based investment firm Citadel Investment Group is a leading shareholder in NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) with 19.2 million shares worth more than $2.3 billion.
In its Q2 2022 investor letter, Baron Funds, an asset management firm, highlighted a few stocks and NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) was one of them. Here is what the fund said:
“At the company-specific level, there was a broad correction across the entire portfolio. While four of our holdings contributed to performance, the contribution to absolute returns was less than 100bps combined, as unfortunately none of them was large enough to move the needle. We had 16 investments detracting over 100bps each with NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), our second largest detractor, costing the Fund 254bps.
NVIDIA’s stock was hit even harder, down 44.4%, impacted by concerns over the health of the consumer, dramatic declines in crypto, and COVID-related lockdowns in China. Despite the sell-off and the increased near-term volatility in its gaming business, NVIDIA’s revenues grew 46% year-over-year with 48% operating margins, driven by continued strength in its data center business as companies across industries adopt AI and ML…(read more)”
6. PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 126
PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL) operates a technology platform that enables digital payments on behalf of merchants and consumers worldwide. It is one of the famous stocks in the Nancy Pelosi stock portfolio. On October 10, PayPal Holdings said that it has withdrawn a policy that would have seen users fined $2,500 for spreading misinformation. PayPal said that the policy update was published in error. A financial disclosure report shows that Pelosi exercised 50 CALL options (5,000 shares) on PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL) stock in January 2022 worth somewhere between $500,000 and $1,000,000. The report is dated late February 2022 and signed by the Speaker herself.
On October 24, Atlantic Equities analyst Kunaal Malde maintained an Overweight rating on PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL) stock and lowered the price target to $110 from $120, noting that given the increasing likelihood that the US and global economies will enter recession, the advisory was now assuming a modest economic downturn in 2023 forecasts.
In addition to Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), and Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:FB), PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL) is one of the stocks in the Nancy Pelosi stock portfolio.
In its Q2 2022 investor letter, Mayar Capital, an asset management firm, highlighted a few stocks and PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL) was one of them. Here is what the fund said:
“This quarter, we bought shares in PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL), the payments platform. PayPal has been one of the more high-profile victims of the market’s brutal ruthlessness over the past few months, and the stock fell by over two-thirds between its peak in July to the beginning of March this year. As we progressed PayPal through the Mayar Checklist Process, we identified a business with a leadership position in a structurally growing market.
The company benefits from certain network effects and faces several competitive threats at the same time. As the business profited from the move to online retail during the pandemic, as well as from the stimulus cheques handed out in the US, the stock price soared to absurd levels. As so often happens, however, the market had overcorrected by February and this quarter was offering prospective shareholders prices that assumed essentially zero growth in the business. When life gives you irrational sellers, make lemonade!”
Click to continue reading and see 5 Best Nancy Pelosi Stocks to Buy Now.
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Nvidia and Target have both hit speed bumps in their businesses, but both are in position to rebound.
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NVIDIA's (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock is up by a considerable 25% over the past month. Since the market usually pay for a company’s long-term fundamentals, we decided to study the company’s key performance indicators to see if they could be influencing the market. Particularly, we will be paying attention to NVIDIA's ROE today.
Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.
View our latest analysis for NVIDIA
How To Calculate Return On Equity?
The formula for return on equity is:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for NVIDIA is:
28% = US$6.0b ÷ US$21b (Based on the trailing twelve months to October 2022).
The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. That means that for every $1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated $0.28 in profit.
What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?
Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.
NVIDIA's Earnings Growth And 28% ROE
First thing first, we like that NVIDIA has an impressive ROE. Second, a comparison with the average ROE reported by the industry of 19% also doesn't go unnoticed by us. Under the circumstances, NVIDIA's considerable five year net income growth of 23% was to be expected.
Next, on comparing NVIDIA's net income growth with the industry, we found that the company's reported growth is similar to the industry average growth rate of 27% in the same period.
Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. If you're wondering about NVIDIA's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.
Is NVIDIA Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?
NVIDIA has a really low three-year median payout ratio of 7.1%, meaning that it has the remaining 93% left over to reinvest into its business. This suggests that the management is reinvesting most of the profits to grow the business as evidenced by the growth seen by the company.
Besides, NVIDIA has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Existing analyst estimates suggest that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 3.4% over the next three years. As a result, the expected drop in NVIDIA's payout ratio explains the anticipated rise in the company's future ROE to 63%, over the same period.
Conclusion
Overall, we are quite pleased with NVIDIA's performance. Particularly, we like that the company is reinvesting heavily into its business, and at a high rate of return. Unsurprisingly, this has led to an impressive earnings growth. Having said that, looking at the current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings are expected to gain momentum. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=7c42dc3f7516db8664ddba6dded76a4400cacc9254b9055bc7b5df73bab24276 | Largest cryptocurrencies mixed as Dogecoin rises | The largest cryptocurrencies were mixed during morning trading on Friday, with Dogecoin seeing the biggest move, rising 8.94% to 9 cents. Litecoin led the... | 2022-11-25T02:00:00 | MarketWatch | The largest cryptocurrencies were mixed during morning trading on Friday, with Dogecoin DOGEUSD seeing the biggest move, rising 8.94% to 9 cents.
Litecoin LTCUSD led the decreases with a 1.48% drop to $76.54.
Two other cryptocurrencies saw increases Friday. Ripple XRPUSD rose 0.99% to 40 cents, and Cardano ADAUSD rose 0.22% to 31 cents.
In addition to Litecoin, five other currencies posted decreases. Bitcoin Cash BCHUSD declined 1.41% to $114.66, and Polkadot DOTUSD dropped 1.26% to $5.28.
Uniswap UNIUSD slipped 0.26% to $5.38, and Ethereum ETHUSD slipped 1,192.50% to $1,192.50.
Bitcoin BTCUSD recorded the smallest decline, declining 0.08% to $16,524.57.
In crypto-related company news, shares of Coinbase Global Inc. COIN shed 2.36% to $44.50, while MicroStrategy Inc. MSTR inched down 0.57% to $175.39. Riot Blockchain Inc. RIOT shares slid 0.45% to $4.40, and shares of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. MARA dropped 2.16% to $6.34.
Overstock.com Inc. OSTK rose 0.81% to $24.82, while Block Inc. SQ fell 1.88% to $62.72 and Tesla Inc. TSLA slid 0.74% to $181.84.
PayPal Holdings Inc. PYPL dropped 1.34% to $79.67, and Ebang International Holdings Inc. EBON shares fell 6.52% to $5.16. NVIDIA Corp. NVDA sank 0.87% to $163.75, and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD inched down 1.34% to $75.67.
In the fund space, blockchain-focused Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF BLOK slipped 0.30% to $16.63. The Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF BITQ, which is focused on pure-play crypto companies, inched down 0.58% to $4.31. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust GBTC, which tracks the Bitcoin market price, slid 0.43% to $9.19.
Editor's Note: This story, which tracks nine of the top cryptocurrencies and excludes stable coins, was auto-generated by Automated Insights, an automation technology provider, using data from Dow Jones, FactSet and Kraken. See our market data terms of use. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=dba67359479778fea294ec9ce457a2e4377fc47c9b8cb5fb37bfaaa9a9cf4c0d | Quantum Computing Will Change the World. How to Play the Stocks. | Investors finally have ways to play the first radical shift in computing since the 1950s, but you're better off waiting before jumping in. | 2022-11-24T17:00:00 | MarketWatch | Last month, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the Nobel Prize in physics to three scientists for their research on quantum information science, one of the most surprising and—as it turns out—most commercially alluring scientific discoveries of the past 100 years.
Yes, the quantum computing revolution is coming. But it will take time, probably longer than is comfortable for investors in the handful of quantum start-ups that have managed to reach the public market. This is a textbook case of Amara’s Law, coined by the futurist and engineer Roy Amara: “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”
The new crop of small, public companies devoted to quantum—such as Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and IonQ —will be challenged to generate significant revenue for years to come.
At some point, though, quantum is going to change the world.
“We want to solve problems that are intractable for today’s—or even next century’s—supercomputers,” says Krysta Svore, vice president of quantum software at Microsoft (ticker: MSFT ). With conventional supercomputers, she says, there are unsolvable problems—like sorting through potential drug candidates—that would require compute times longer than the current lifespan of the universe. “We want to bring this technology forward and see how we can use it in conjunction with classical technology.”
The nature of quantum computing makes it useful for solving computationally intensive problems with huge numbers of variables. Quantum computing will potentially speed up drug development, improve financial modeling, and boost the efficiency of electric batteries.
The Nobelists’ work demonstrated a mind-bending concept crucial to quantum computing called “quantum entanglement.” The three prizewinning physicists—Alain Aspect, John Clauser, and Anton Zeilinger—all contributed to the discovery that particles in an entangled state can affect other particles, even when vast distances apart.
The new research undermines the thinking of none other than Albert Einstein. Einstein was skeptical of the ability of quantum mechanics to describe the universe in full; in particular, he was uncomfortable with quantum theory’s reliance on what he called “spukhafte fernwirkungen”—“spooky action at a distance.” It turns out that Einstein’s doubts were misplaced.
Though the exact mechanism remains uncertain—“nobody understands quantum mechanics,” the physicist Richard Feynman once said—experiments from the new Nobelists prove that quantum theory really does describe the natural world and that entanglement exists. That discovery has set the stage for an entirely new branch of computing, and there’s a race under way to develop the first commercial quantum computers, with potentially vast riches at stake.
The combatants include some of the biggest players in “classical” computing: Microsoft, Intel (INTC), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN), and IBM ( IBM ) are all building quantum hardware, along with Japan’s Toshiba, NEC, and NTT, and China’s Baidu (BIDU), Huawei Technologies, Tencent, and Alibaba. At the other end of the scale are a handful of small firms that rode quantum hype into the public markets, mostly through special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, mergers, including Rigetti Computing (RGTI), D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), and IonQ (IONQ). And that’s just the tip of the iceberg: According to PitchBook, 251 quantum start-ups have together raised more than $5.4 billion in venture capital since the beginning of 2017.
It’s easy to see the allure.
IDC last year estimated that the market for quantum computing services, mostly delivered by the cloud, could grow to $8.6 billion in 2027, up from $412 million in 2020, a compound annual growth rate of more than 50%.
More tantalizing is a 2021 report from Boston Consulting Group that put the potential value creation from quantum computing at $450 billion to $850 billion—with $90 billion to $170 billion of that flowing to the quantum industry players. But investors will have to be patient—Boston Consulting Group doesn’t expect the industry to reach that scale until 2040 or later.
William Zeng, head of quantum research at Goldman Sachs, is fascinated by quantum’s game-changing potential. “We are very much in research mode,” Zeng says. “We do not have systems in production yet. We’re figuring out how to get there. It starts with looking at business problems—what things now are too slow, too expensive, or can’t be solved at all. And then you try to pair those with places where quantum has a theoretical advantage.”
One early area of focus for Goldman is the potential to speed up Monte Carlo calculations, complex algorithms used to assess the value and risks of derivatives and other securities. He sees other potential applications in portfolio optimization and machine learning for anti-money-laundering, among other things. But not yet, and not particularly soon.
But you’ll need a quantum computer to predict the long-run winners.
“We’re not at the stage where a quantum computer is improving the bottom line of any company not in the field of quantum computing,” says Ryan Babbush, head of quantum algorithm and applications at Alphabet ‘s Google unit.
That said, there are real-world examples of quantum computers being used today. IBM arguably has the early lead. Big Blue has built more than 30 quantum computers since 2016, and more than 20 of them are online right now, accessible via the web. IBM’s director of research, Dario Gil, says there are more than 500,000 users for those IBM quantum systems at over 180 institutions, primarily for research. “We have more quantum computers online than the rest of the world combined,” Gil says.
“It is still super-early,” agrees Simone Severini, the director of quantum computing at Amazon Web Services. “There is still substantial scientific and engineering work to do before we get quantum computing at scale.” Like other quantum industry leaders, Severini says there is growing interest from customers that want to explore the technology, but he says that it’s too early to know which technological approaches will succeed.
IBM CEO Arvind Krishna thinks we’re still probably five years away from anyone generating material revenue from quantum computing, but he adds that “there are a lot of very smart people with a lot of capital chasing the space.” He thinks that at some point—maybe in two years, or three, or five—“you will solve problems that will just astonish people.”
His back-of-the-envelope math suggests there could be a $100 billion market for quantum computing by the end of the decade, which he thinks will be split by a handful of players.
To be clear, quantum computers are never going to replace conventional computing. You’ll never use one to check your email, play games, or run Excel, and there will be no quantum smartphones or laptops. Instead, quantum systems will work in tandem with conventional computing to solve problems that can’t be addressed with current technology.
“This is the first time that computing is branching,” says IBM’s Gil, describing the radical shift away from the computing architecture pioneered by Intel, whose co-founder Gordon Moore accurately forecast in 1965 that the power of microchips would double roughly every two years.
“Some people say this is another step in Moore’s Law,” Gil says, “but it is more fundamental than that. It is not that often that we get to redefine the nature of information.”
It has now been 77 years since ENIAC, the first programmable digital computer, launched at the University of Pennsylvania. Originally intended to be used for artillery targeting, ENIAC played a role in the early development of nuclear weapons. Two years later, in 1947, Bell Labs unveiled the first transistor, the basic building block for all modern electronics.
Over the decades, every computer ever built—PCs, mainframes, supercomputers, game consoles, and mobile phones—have relied on transistor-based binary computation with “bits,” the smallest possible pieces of data, which can only exist in two states. On or off. Zero or one. True or false. Yes or no.
In quantum computing, the most basic piece of information is the qubit—a quantum bit. Like a classical computing bit, the qubit also has two potential states—on or off, zero or one. But quantum computing allows for qubits to be in a state known as “superposition,” in which they are zero and one at the same time—or more precisely some statistical probability of being either. The physicist Erwin Schrödinger whimsically illustrated this paradoxical idea by describing a hypothetical situation in which a cat could be simultaneously both alive and dead.
More important than understanding the deep weirdness of quantum mechanics is the fact that entanglement and superposition give quantum computers phenomenal computational power.
In conventional computing, computing power grows linearly with an increase in bits. But with entangled qubits, computing power grows exponentially as you add more qubits. With three entangled qubits, you can get eight simultaneous calculations—add a fourth qubit, and the system can do 16 calculations in parallel. As the number of qubits increases, eventually you get systems that can’t be matched by conventional computing. To match the computing power of a system with 100 qubits, you’d need the equivalent of 10 trillion years of classical computing time. Classical computing solves problems by considering each potential solution sequentially; quantum computing evaluates all possible solutions simultaneously.
Consulting firm McKinsey estimates that quantum computing has the potential to “revolutionize” research and development on molecular structures in biopharmaceuticals, speeding up drug discovery and development. In the chemicals industry, McKinsey says quantum should drive speedier development of new catalysts, with implications in areas like carbon capture and energy efficiency. Auto makers such as BMW and Volkswagen have begun research on the application of quantum computing to supply-chain management, traffic routing, and electric-vehicle battery design. There are implications for financial services, particularly in portfolio management, risk analysis, machine learning, and options pricing.
Yet, what could prove miraculous in finance, chemistry, and drug discovery also threatens to undermine all current versions of cybersecurity. The Global Risk Institute wrote in a 2021 report that “the threat posed by quantum computers could lead to a catastrophic failure of cybersystems, both through direct attacks and by disrupting trust.”
The threat is still viewed as far out—a survey of 47 quantum experts found that a little more than half saw a better than 50% chance that quantum computers will be able to break an encryption key of 2,048 numbers in under 24 hours within 15 years.
A growing worry is that a U.S. adversary—China being the most likely—could beat the U.S. to the punch, effectively putting any information protected with traditional forms of cryptography at risk of discovery—think industrial secrets, financial information, personal data, everything. The cybersecurity industry is racing to create “quantum safe” alternatives to traditional approaches to data security.
The process of creating quantum computing is taking years longer than some people might have expected, and for good reason. It turns out that building stable and useful quantum systems is fiendishly difficult. Qubits are fragile, sensitive to changes in temperature, materials impurities, radiation, vibration, and other environmental conditions. That makes them prone to high error rates.
In one room at IBM’s research center in Yorktown Heights, N.Y., there’s a quantum system sitting alone, connected to the web for the benefit of researchers experimenting with coding quantum systems. Down the hall, more systems are under construction using chips with higher qubit counts.
Earlier this month, IBM announced a 433-qubit processor, more than triple the number of qubits in the company’s last-generation quantum chip; the company is targeting the 4,000 qubit level by 2025. A few other players have made similar promises.
On the outside, IBM’s quantum systems are just imposing boxes. Inside, they look far different than a traditional computing system, mostly because quantum computers require supercooling to keep the systems running. The cooling systems to reach the required ultralow temperatures result in the distinctive candelabra-shaped designs for systems created by IBM, Rigetti, and others.
By some estimates, it could take thousands or even millions of physical qubits to create a viable quantum computer. “You need enormous redundancy,” says Amazon’s Severini. Tim Costa, director of high-performance and quantum computing at Nvidia (NVDA), says that while there are a variety of quantum computers accessible today via the large cloud vendors, none have more than a few hundred qubits; to do useful work, he says, will require systems with millions of qubits.
Most of the larger aspirants—including IBM, Alphabet, Amazon, and Alibaba—are pursuing a similar approach, using superconducting qubits, their chips cooled to extremely low temperatures, a few microkelvin, colder than the vacuum of outer space and controlled with microwaves.
Quantinuum, a spinout from Honeywell International (HON), and newly public IonQ, rely on “trapped ion” systems, using naturally occurring atoms as qubits; trapped ion systems are considered to be more reliable, but slower, than superconducting quantum computers. Quantinuum President Tony Uttley says Honeywell decided early on that the trapped ion approach would give the company a chance to reach the market sooner. “Our thesis was that if you make really high-quality qubits, you can do more with those systems in early stages of quantum computing,” he says. “We believe in a future with multiple kinds of quantum processors.”
IonQ’s CEO, Peter Chapman, says the company has systems running on all three of the leading cloud platforms—AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud—and contends that the company will have commercial applications running for clients by the end of 2023. “We have a shot at being the first one there,” he says. “We should have the market to ourselves for the next few years.”
Other companies are taking different approaches. Start-ups PsiQuantum and Xanadu use photons controlled by mirrors and other devices. ColdQuanta and Atom Computing rely on neutral, or cold, atoms—rather than the charged atoms, or ions, used by other technologies. Intel is working on “quantum dot” technology and says that its expertise in chip production can be applied to building quantum processing units, or QPUs. Microsoft is betting on a technology called “topological qubits,” which, in theory, have fewer errors than other approaches but which remain in the early research stage, with no functioning systems to date.
D-Wave, which recently went public via a merger with a SPAC, offers an approach called “quantum annealing” that is targeted specifically at solving optimization problems. D-Wave CEO Alan Baratz, a longtime tech executive who in the late 1990s built the Java software business at Sun Microsystems, contends that his company is “the only commercial quantum computing company, working with real companies on real applications.”
For all the promise, today’s quantum revenue is virtually nonexistent. D-Wave’s June-quarter revenue, for instance, was just $1.4 million. For the full year, the company sees revenue of $7 million to $9 million.
Despite the lack of current commercial applications, companies have begun to put timelines on major breakthroughs. IBM intends to build a 1,000 qubit system by the end of 2023—and 4,000 by 2025—and sees commercial workloads evolving before the end of 2025. PsiQuantum has vowed to develop a one-million qubit computer as soon as 2025. And it may take systems at that scale to reach quantum’s potential. James Clarke, director of quantum hardware at Intel, says it will take at least one million qubits “to do something earth shattering.”
Rigetti founder Chad Rigetti, who announced his resignation as the company’s CEO earlier this month, said in a recent interview that his company has the fastest quantum computers in the world, and next year will launch a system with 336 qubits, “opening the window where quantum advantage really becomes possible.”
The real question is when quantum computing will generate meaningful revenue. “If I were to draw a graph of probability of quantum computations really assisting businesses in making decisions—it would peak in three to four years—and then again in 10 years or so,” says Alphabet’s Babbush. He sees some potential for the earliest systems to find niche applications, including in financial services, in the next few years.
Richard Moulds, who runs Amazon Braket, an AWS-hosted quantum computing research service, says the cloud-based computing giant’s customers “expect us to be a guiding hand and to be ready with commercial quantum infrastructure.” But, he adds, so far the primary use of the online quantum services is to build better quantum computers.
“No one is using this in a production sense,” Moulds says. “We’re still discovering which applications are likely to be the most useful. We’re getting ready for quantum.”
IBM’s Gil views quantum computing as a high-stakes game that few players will survive. To build quantum hardware, he says, will take “stamina, capital, and know-how.” He suspects that there will be more pretenders than successes. “I don’t think there will be many players at the end; you’ll be able to count them on one hand. In the U.S., maybe two or three. It’s not for the faint of heart. On a scale of one to 10 for technical difficulty, it is a 10.”
After a short period of hype, investors have begun to recognize the long lead times. Small-cap quantum stocks have been terrible performers this year, particularly as investors flee high-risk assets. Rigetti is down 88%, IonQ is off 71%, and D-Wave has lost 64%. The Defiance Quantum exchange-traded fund (QTUM) is down a more modest 27%, but that’s because the portfolio includes not only pure plays like IonQ but also stocks such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Baidu, Microsoft, and Texas Instruments.
Meanwhile, the big tech players in quantum—Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon.com —are all dealing with broader business issues that have weighed on their stocks.
IBM is perhaps the only quantum player currently operating from a position of strength. Its stock is up 10% this year.
IBM’s Gil thinks that quantum will be worth the work, and the wait. “The future of computing is bits plus neurons and qubits”—a combination of conventional computing, quantum, and artificial intelligence. “That is how computing is going to run.”
Write to Eric J. Savitz at [email protected] | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=4e9703d181b1744d274f29df612ee7370a59b74554334bcd2ae67afb14f4b589 | Here's Nvidia's Fastest-Growing Segment -- and It's Not Data Center or Gaming | On Nov. 16, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) reported its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2023 (ended Oct. 30). Nvidia's largest segment is the data center, and it's still expanding at a strong pace, though nowhere near as quickly as its much smaller automotive segment. Nvidia is becoming a leader in autonomous self-driving vehicle hardware and software, and some of the world's largest car manufacturers have signed on to use it. | 2022-11-24T04:30:00 | Yahoo | Here's Nvidia's Fastest-Growing Segment -- and It's Not Data Center or Gaming
On Nov. 16, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) reported its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2023 (ended Oct. 30). Nvidia's largest segment is the data center, and it's still expanding at a strong pace, though nowhere near as quickly as its much smaller automotive segment. Nvidia is becoming a leader in autonomous self-driving vehicle hardware and software, and some of the world's largest car manufacturers have signed on to use it. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=182a42ab63c1e62b08b4497e047b89b9e17ce5a4de5fb36acfce3fc03217c91e | Nvidia And Micron's Toilet Paper Hoarding Issue At Its Worst | In July 2022, a Reuters report called the chip industry is facing a toilet paper hoarding moment. Find out why the issue may have peaked at NVIDIA and Micron. | 2022-11-23T23:00:25 | SeekingAlpha | Nvidia And Micron's Toilet Paper Hoarding Issue At Its Worst
Summary
- Back in July 2022, a Reuters report called, correctly, the chip industry is facing a toilet paper hoarding moment.
- The chip shortage experienced earlier in the year has turned into a glut at leading companies like Nvidia and Micron.
- This article shows the signs that the toilet paper hoarding issue may have peaked at Nvidia and Micron.
- Inventory is near a record in a decade and so is revenue contraction.
- Historically, chip cycles have demonstrated a duration of ~3.5 years. And I foresee the current contraction to end in mid to late 2023.
- This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Envision Early Retirement. Learn More »
Thesis: chip glut and toilet paper hoarding
Back in July 2022, this following Reuters report correctly called out the beginning of a contracting phase for the chip industry.
The report calls the current stage the toilet paper hoarding moment for the chip business, for good ideas. Due to the chip shortage earlier in the year, companies started to hoard chips “just in case” they need them and cannot get them (just like people hoarding toilet paper when COVID first broke out). And quickly the shortage turns into a glut.
The report also pointed out that such a glut has caught industry leaders such as NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Micron (NASDAQ:MU) by surprise - in a very way the toilet paper hoarding surprised Procter & Gamble and Kimberly-Clark.
The timing of the report is a bit too earlier (but trying to time the market is a fool’s errand anyway). As you can see from the chart above, at that time, the chip sales growth is still positive (around 18% YoY) even though the growth has clearly passed a peak in 2021 Q4 and the growth is slowing down. However, the essence of the analogy is accurate as we will see in the remainder of this article. And both NVDA and MU (and also the overall tech sector approximated by QQQ) indeed have suffered substantial price declines since then. As seen, NVDA suffered a maximum drawdown of about 40% off its July level and MU about 22%. Even after the recent rallies, NVDA is still 20% below its July level and MU about 12%.
The remainder of this article will argue that signs are showing that their toilet paper hoarding issue may have peaked now. Their inventories are near a record level in a decade, and so are their revenue contractions. Historically, chip cycles have demonstrated a bottom-to-bottom duration of 3.5 years on average. And I foresee the current contraction to end in mid to late 2023. Furthermore, in the case of MU, the valuation seems to have already bottomed ahead of business fundamentals.
A historical perspective
The Reuters report showed data in the past 5 years only between 2018 and 2022, which only included about one cycle. The following plot included 10 years of data for both MU and NVDA to provide a broader historical perspective. As you can see, during the past 10 years, each of them went through about 2 full cycles. You can further see that their boom-and-bust behaviors not only share the same duration (3.5 and 3.8 years) but also very similar phases and even magnitudes (using the terminologies for a sine wave cycle). To wit, you can see that the first chip boom cycle of the past decade peaked in Q4 2013 and then peaked again in Q3 2017, translating into a cycle duration of about 3.5 years. The cycle then peaked again in Q3 2021, lasting for about 4 years this time. And the contracting cycle between Q1 2016 and Q4 2019 showed a similar duration of 3.8 years.
With this historical perspective, I will analyze the current status of their fundamentals to anticipate the next steps.
Inventories are at a peak level
Let’s first look at inventories, the clearest sign of the status of the cycle in my mind for a few reasons. First, the market will first have to absorb whatever inventories they currently hold. On the manufacturing side, NVDA and MU will have to sell their current accumulated inventory build-up first. And possibly at a discounted price if the market demand is low and the buildup is high - which seems to be the unfortunate combination now.
To wit, the chart below displays their inventory level, in terms of days of inventory standing. As seen from the top panel, MU’s inventory has historically fluctuated between 76.2 days to 143.3 days in the past decade. And the average inventory level is 101 days. NVDA’s inventory has fluctuated in a very similar range - between 63 days to 148 days with an average of 83.16 days. Now a few key observations:
- First, you can see the toilet-hoarding dynamics clearly from these charts too. Note how quickly the inventories went down from a record level in 2019 to be below average shortly after COVID break out. In a twisted way, the pandemic and the subsequent global supply chain congesting helped them to clear the peak inventory then, and at the same time also misled them to be overly confident about the growth prospects. As a result, as the Reuters report pointed out, they turned from a “just in time” mode to a “just in case” mode by hoarding inventory.
- Then the shortage turned into a glut. You can clearly see that their current inventory levels are near the peak level in a decade. In MU’s case, its current inventory stands at 139.5 days, only about four days below the record level and about 38 days above its historical average. And in the case of NVDA, its current inventory stands at 138 days, only about 10 days below its historical peak and more than 55 days above its historical average.
The forward-looking nature of PE
As mentioned in our earlier writing:
Experienced investors obviously know this simple fact: PE multiples are always forward-looking because investors are always forward-looking (like what I am doing here). And the current valuation always tries to price in future developments. Again, just like what I'm doing here – since I am predicting the contraction cycle to end in early 2023, the price I am willing to pay today is based on the condition that I predict for mid or later 2023, not the current conditions.
For this reason, valuation always changes ahead of business fundamentals, both in the boom-and-bust phases of the cycle as shown in the following charts. The fundamentals may have not reached a bottom yet, but their PE multiples have already corrected dramatically.
First, let’s recap the fundamentals. If you recall from an earlier chart, both companies have reported negative YoY quarterly sales growth already, a clear sign of the contraction phase. To wit, NVDA reported a negative 16.5% YoY quarterly sales growth last quarter and MU a negative 19.7% growth. And these levels of contraction were among the largest in their history in the past 10 years. However, as mentioned above, inventory is at a peak level. And the unfortunate combination of softened market demand and high inventory buildup could translate to slow shipment volume AND discounted price, causing further contraction in total revenues.
However, valuation always responds more hastily, and the chart below illustrates it quite clearly. The top panel shows the same YoY quarterly revenue as shown before, and the bottom panel shows the PE multiple. As seen, in the case of MU’s previous contraction cycle, its PE multiple reached a bottom at the end of 2018 while its contraction came to end in Q3 2019.
Thus, the PE led the fundamentals by about 3 quarters in this case. Take its previous expansion cycle as another example. As seen, its PE reached a peak level (34.9x) in Q1 of 2021 while its expansion did not peak until Q3 of 2021. And therefore, its PE led its fundamentals by about 2 quarters in this case.
With the above background, let's look at their current cycle and current PE multiples. As seen in the chart below, the PE ratio for MU has fluctuated between about 2.4x and 35x with an average of 13.2x in the past 10 years (an average over two full cycles). And as you can see, its current PE of 7.4x is only about half of its average PE and quite near the bottom level in a decade. The picture for NVDA is qualitatively similar but different quantitatively. NVDA’s PE has fluctuated between about 17x and 105x with an average of 57.55x. Its current PE of 65x is a far cry from its peak PE of over 100+. However, it is quite high in absolute terms and also a bit higher than its multi-year average.
Growth projections and expected returns
As you can see from the following consensus estimates, the EPS of MU is projected to contract to 1 cent and NVDA to $3.27 (vs. $3.85 for 2021). And as you can tell from my argument so far, I won’t be surprised at all if their contraction in 2022 and also the first half of 2023 turns out to be worse than these consensus estimates. Then starting mid-to-late 2023, I anticipate the contraction to end, and they would enter the next expansion phase. And consensus estimates indeed project about a 22% annual growth rate for MU in the next 4 years and about a 19% growth rate for NVDA.
In terms of expected turns, we like the return/risk profile for MU better. NVDA definitely offers superior profitability. MU’s ROCE, return on capital employed, is about 30%, about ½ compared to NVDA’s ~60%. And their growth rates are about similar as projected by the consensus estimates (in the range of 19% to 22%).
However, given their current PE multiples, all return from NVDA is expected to come from growth (assuming PE stays constant at 65x). But in the case of MU, its long-term returns can come from both growths (which is similar to NVDA) and also from its owner's earnings yield because of its 7.4x PE (details for the analysis of owner's earnings yield can be found in our blog article here).
Risks and final thoughts
To recap, both MU and NVDA are going through a contracting phase of their cycle. They experienced a chip shortage in 2019~2020 after the pandemic and the global supply chain disruptions, which misled them to build a large inventory. Now the shortage has turned into a glut. Currently, their inventory levels are near the peak level in a decade (139.5 days for MU and 138 days for NVDA). Looking forward, there are considerable risks that they may need to clear their existing inventory at discounted prices because of the combination of softened market demand and high inventory buildup. Such risks could mean lower shipment volume AND lower price at the same time, causing further contraction in total revenues.
The historical chip cycles lasted for about 3.5 years, and I do not see the current downturn stage to be an exception. Clearing their existing inventory would take about 5~6 months, and I expect the current contracting to last into mid-to-late 2023. Finally, a cautionary word about predicting cycles:
To paraphrase Ben Graham, perfectly timing the cycle is a practical and emotional impossibility. Although having an overall sense of which stage we are in the cycle is not only possible but also sufficient to guide sound investment decisions already. I am not pretending that I can predict the details and specific timing precisely. But I’ve seen the movie and read the script multiple times before both in the chip sector and other cyclical sectors. And in the long term, NOT making fatal mistakes (like buying into MU at 30+ PE or NVDA at 100+ PE) is way more important than making brilliant calls.
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This article was written by
** Disclosure: I am associated with Sensor Unlimited.
** Master of Science, 2004, Stanford University, Stanford, CA
Department of Management Science and Engineering, with concentration in quantitative investment
** PhD, 2006, Stanford University, Stanford, CA
Department of Mechanical Engineering, with concentration in advanced and renewable energy solutions
** 15 years of investment management experiences
Since 2006, have been actively analyzing stocks and the overall market, managing various portfolios and accounts and providing investment counseling to many relatives and friends.
** Diverse background and holistic approach
Combined with Sensor Unlimited, we provide more than 3 decades of hands-on experience in high-tech R&D and consulting, housing market, credit market, and actual portfolio management. We monitor several asset classes for tactical opportunities. Examples include less-covered stocks ideas (such as our past holdings like CRUS and FL), the credit and REIT market, short-term and long-term bond trade opportunities, and gold-silver trade opportunities.
I also take a holistic view and watch out on aspects (both dangers and opportunities) often neglected – such as tax considerations (always a large chunk of return), fitness with the rest of holdings (no holding is good or bad until it is examined under the context of what we already hold), and allocation across asset classes.
Above all, like many SA readers and writers, I am a curious investor – I look forward to constantly learn, re-learn, and de-learn with this wonderful community.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of MU either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Comments (17)
Reward: >$100 in two years.Your call sir? Me, I'll take my chances.Disclosure: went long a week ago. Non, I have no immediate need for the investment $ next two year. I'll be very content with the potential reward in two years' time.
www.businesskorea.co.kr/... | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=4c070c7e4a5ef1672a874d323b04ab9f5d2b6a04f3f77b996bc009806bb310bf | Unusual Options Activity in Apple, Home Depot and 8 Other Stocks | 2022-12-19T15:17:07 | Fintel | SHARE PRICE
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Bret Kenwell
Bret Kenwell has been publicly writing about and analyzing the stock market for more than 10 years. What started off as fundamental analysis of strong businesses has morphed into a rigorous process that blends both fundamental and technical analysis. While he still seeks out the strong businesses and dependable dividends he was attracted to early on, Bret has narrowed his focus to technology, automotive, and high-quality, high-growth businesses. In that effort, he seeks Future Blue Chips — which is also the name of his website and newsletter. Bret’s writing has sent him to unique places and events, like auto shows and industry conferences. Those excursions allowed him to fully grasp what Nvidia was showcasing at its GTC conferences and see some of the impressive updates on display at the automotive show. Through this he gained incredible insight into, and conviction in, what have become some of today’s best-performing stocks. It’s also allowed him to meet some very smart, very talented investors. Perhaps more than anything, their lessons, findings, and techniques have found a way into his process over the years. There are a million different ways to make money in the stock market. To find the process that works best for you is long and filled with setbacks. Bret’s hope is that part of his process can become part of yours; and together become better investors.
Unusual Options Activity in Apple, Home Depot and 8 Other Stocks
Apple, Home Depot, Merck and others lit up our unusual options activity this week.
Many investors brush off unusual options activity, but others like to “follow the flow.” When large investors — like hedge funds for example — make big moves in the options world, it shows up in a very interesting way. We refer to this as “unusual options activity” and it serves as a way to see what the big investors are doing.
Luckily there’s a leaderboard of options activity for both calls and puts and it helps us track all of the outsized volume.
There’s actually a leaderboard for ETFs too.
With that in mind, let’s look at the stocks that stuck out the most on the call side and the put side.
Apple (AAPL)
Starting with the biggest of them all, we have Apple (US:AAPL). The stock recently hit a one-month low, but it still commands a market cap in excess of $2.1 trillion.
Perhaps because it’s hitting new recent lows, someone appears to be loading up on protection. That’s as a series of put-buying hit the tape on Friday, Dec. 16th.
That’s as more than $50 million in premium was paid for the January 2023 $170 puts, which were more than $30 in-the-money. At the same time, $15.5 million was paid for the January 2023 $230 puts.
That said, there was an absolute flurry of heavy options activity in the January puts, so it could be part of a more complicated spread. Let’s also not forget that it was “quad-witch” expiration on Friday and a lot of this action could be a result of that.
Gilead Sciences (GILD)
Coming in at No. 1 on the unusual options leaderboard this week, Gilead Sciences (US:GILD) made a splash as one bullish trader was lighting up the January 2023 $62.5 calls. Over a span of several purchases, they bought almost $12 million worth of the calls, which expire in just over one month from now.
With the stock trading at $88 at the time, this was a deep-in-the-money play. At the same time, someone was busy buying even more than that, gobbling up millions of dollars worth of the $65 calls that expired on Dec. 16th.
Merck (MRK)
Showing up as No. 2 on this week's leaderboard, Merck (US:MRK) turned a few heads as select healthcare stocks continue to perform well.
That’s as someone paid more than $15 million for the January 2023 $90 calls. At the time, Merck stock was trading near $111 a share, putting these calls deep-in-the-money.
The trade came on Dec. 13th, just one day before the stock hit new all-time highs. This looks like a bullish bet on the trend continuing, potentially into year-end.
Home Depot (HD)
Home Depot (US:HD) comes in at No. 3 on this week’s leaderboard. That’s after a bullish put trade hit the tape on Dec. 15th. Shortly after noon, $4.4 million in put premium was collected by selling the February $290 puts, while shares were trading near $325.
About 20 minutes before that, the same puts were sold, collecting more than $2.57 million in premium. In total, almost $7 million in premium was collected for this trade.
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)
Often overlooked for Nvidia (US:NVDA), Intel (US:INTC) and other more well-known semiconductor companies, investors seem to forget Taiwan Semiconductor (US:TSM) is worth more than $400 billion.
Further, Warren Buffett has been a buyer of this stock.
With just two days until expiration, someone scooped up almost $5 million in the Dec. 16th $65 calls. The calls were deep-in-the-money, with shares trading above $80 at the time.
Morgan Stanley (MS)
Morgan Stanley (US:MS) is the only bank stock that made the list and comes after someone made a long-dated bullish bet.
That’s as one trader bought $3.19 million worth of the January 2025 $95 calls. Those calls were slightly out-of-the-money with Morgan Stanley trading at $92.65 at the time, and expire in more than 760 days.
Phillip Morris (PM)
Phillip Morris (US:PM) came in at No. 7 on this week's leaderboard after one trader made a bullish put trade.
With shares trading at roughly $100, one trader sold $2.62 million worth of the March $90 puts.
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)
Like Merck, Bristol-Myers Squibb (US:BMY) recently hit new all-time highs this month, but the stock has pulled back hard over the last few weeks. Shares have fallen about 10% while declining in 8 of the past 10 sessions. The two “up days” in that stretch came on gains of just 0.01% and 0.08%, respectively.
One trader believes that pullback is an opportunity on the long side.
On Dec. 15th, they sold $569,000 worth of the February $72.50 puts, which were slightly out-of-the-money as BMY stock was trading at $76.
A day later, someone bought almost $170,000 worth of the $75 calls expiring on Jan. 6th, so they are looking for a bounce as well.
Walmart (WMT)
Like Bristol-Myers Squibb, traders are looking for a bullish opportunity in Walmart (US:WMT) after the recent pullback.
That’s as one trader collected $510,000 in premium for selling the September $125 puts. These puts were far out-of-the-money and currently expire in more than 120 days.
Coca-Cola (KO)
Last but not least, we have Coca-Cola (US:KO), which also had bullish put selling taking place this week.
Someone sold over $518,000 worth of the March $65 puts. Expiring in about 90 days, these puts were slightly in-the-money.
Stories by Bret Kenwell
As Disney Leads the Week in Unusual Options Flow, NVDA, AAPL, XPEV Follow
Many investors brush off or ignore options trading because options are complex and misunderstood.
Big Tech Options Bets Die Down. XOM, MRK, LCID Stock Lead the Charge
While many investors brush off options, many others like to “follow the flow.
5 Tech Stocks Reveal Heavy Call Options Flow: DIS, NVDA, META, TSLA, NKE
Many investors don’t pay attention to them, because options are too confusing and there can be multiple implications from a single data point.
6 Stocks With Heavy Call Flow: ENPH, META, MRNA, MSFT, NVDA, QCOM
Many investors don’t pay attention to unusual options activity because options are too confusing and there can be multiple implications from a single data point.
Unusual Options Flow in KRE, QQQ, GDX and 3 Other ETFs
Many investors brush off unusual options activity, but others like to “follow the flow.
Tech Stocks AI, NVDA, BABA Dominate Unusual Options Activity
Unusual options activity is often ignored by many investors, but for some, it plays a key role in their trading strategies and approach.
We're Seeing KRE, ARKK, SLV and 4 Other ETFs With Unusual Options Activity
Like stocks, exchange-traded funds can have unusual options activity too.
Tesla, Disney and Nvidia Join 7 Others Showing Unusual Options Activity
While many investors brush off options, many others like to “follow the flow.
Amid Industry Turmoil, Regional Banking ETF Leads Unusual Options Activity
Many investors don’t pay attention to options because they find them too confusing and there can be multiple implications from a single data point.
Unusual Options Activity in Tesla, Nvidia and 5 Other Stocks
Many investors brush off unusual options activity, but others like to “follow the flow. | NVDA |
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https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=8ebf4fd18f877d24c88a9b499478d2b113706c71de712ce3e2cf80f2a201f158 | Semiconductors: A Tale of Haves and Have-nots | The semiconductor space has contracted over the past year. In this article, we will dissect which semi conductors are leading and which are lagging. | 2022-12-19T10:32:06 | Yahoo | Semiconductors: A Tale of Haves and Have-nots
Over the past ten years, the semiconductor industry has produced some of the biggest market winners including, Nvidia NVDA, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Broadcom AVGO. However, the industry is going through a contraction period, and many former leaders are now becoming laggards.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Pictured: The big name semiconductors are beginning to lag.
In the semiconductor space, there could be many reasons for such a weak period, including:
1. Macroeconomic factors:A slowing economy can lead to weakening demand.
2. Supply chain issues:In 2022, supply chain issues caused higher input costs for some semis,
3. China Lockdowns: Lockdowns in China have led to weakened global demand and production issues.
Overall, the industry is subject to various factors that can impact performance. Investors can get a clearer picture of what stocks are leading and which are lagging by looking at the Zacks Ranking, consulting a chart, and sizing up the performance of the stock relative to the group.
Laggards:
Micron MU: After several quarters of double-digit earnings and sales growth, the semiconductor memory solutions provider saw a big slowdown in growth. Last quarter, Micron reported -40% EPS growth on -20% revenue growth. Financial results were negatively impacted by weakening consumer demand and significant inventory adjustments across all end markets. Recent EPS Estimate Revisions continue to be dropped lower, and consensus estimates anticipate the company will lose money in 2023. Micron holds a lowly Zacks Ranking of 4 and is part of the Semiconductor Memory Industry Group which is ranked in the bottom 4% of all groups tracked by Zacks. The company is set to report earnings Wednesday.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Pictured: Recent earnings revisions have trended downward.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is a provider of microprocessors, media, and graphics chip sets on a similar path to Micron. In the most recent report, AMD saw its first EPS slowdown in 12 quarters. The stock holds a Zacks Rank of 3 and is stuck in a multi-month downtrend. AMD is part of the Zack’s Electronics – Semiconductors Group, which is ranked 175 out of 248. On the recent earnings call CEO Lisa Su confirmed the soft environment by saying, “Third quarter results came in below our expectations due to the softening PC market and Substantial inventory reduction actions across the PC supply chain”.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Pictured: AMD's multi-year growth phase has come to an end and the stock has suffered as a result.
Nvidia (NVDA) is a producer of visual computing technologies, and GPUs has unquestionably been the leader in the semiconductor industry in recent years. However, eventually, all companies succumb to higher and higher expectations – at least in the short term. While NVDA has outperformed Micron and AMD from a price-performance perspective, earnings have been disappointing. The last two quarters showed NVDA’s EPS growth slowing by 50%. NVDA currently has a Zacks ranking of 4 and failed at its 200-day moving average.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Pictured: NVDA bumped its head on the 200-day moving average and failed.
Leaders:
Broadcom (AVGO) isa premier designer, developer, and global supplier of a broad range of semiconductor devices. Recently AVGO reported fourth-quarter fiscal non-GAAP earnings of $10.45 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimates and improving 33.8% year over year. AVGO also reported strong top-line performance, growing full-year revenues by 25.9%. Unlike the laggards mentioned above, AVGO sees strong, and consistent top and bottom-line growth, and the stock is above its 200-day moving average. Broadcom is growing at a healthier pace than its peer group, but also remains attractive on a valuation basis. Broadcom’s P/E for the trailing 12 months is 15.93, roughly in line with the 13.23 P/E for its peer group.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Pictured: AVGO has a good combination of growth and value.
Impinj (PI) is a provider of referral and information network radio frequency identification solutions to retail, pharmaceutical, healthcare, food, beverage other industries. Unlike most semiconductor companies, Impinj’s technology is not primarily used in computers. Companies such as Delta Airlines (DAL), use its tiny RFID tag technology to track items (in Delta’s case, it is used to track luggage and ensure it does not get lost. Impinj holds a Zack’s Ranking of 2 and is pulling into its 50-day moving average. The stock has drastically outperformed its peer group over the past year.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Pictured: Recent EPS revisions for PI have skyrocketed as demand for its unique product offering increases.
Lattice Semiconductor LSCC designs, develops, and markets high-performance programmable logic devices and related system software. Lattice’s chip technology focuses on Artificial Intelligence, a segment that is expected to see tremendous growth in the coming years. Applications for the technology include smart homes, cars, and factories. While AI is still in its infancy, the company is already producing impressive growth. EPS has grown at an impressive clip of more than 60% for three straight quarters. While LSCC holds a mediocre Zack’s Ranking of 3, it makes up for it with its ability to consistently produce upside surprises on earnings.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Pictured: LSCC has consitently beat EPS estimates and the stock has benefitted as a result.
Mobileye Global Inc MBLY isthe most recent stock to go public in the semiconductor space. Mobileye’s technology looks to prevent automotive accidents, one of the leading causes of death in the United States each year. The Israel-based company has been in business for more than 20 years and is gaining momentum by inking partnerships with several leading automakers, including General Motors GM, Toyota Motor (TM), and Nio Inc NIO. The company is at the forefront of autonomous driving technology. Though MBLY is extended in price, the new issue has shown tremendous relative strength in a weak market for IPOs.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Pictured: Despite a rough market environment, MBLY has provided strong outperformance.
Conclusion
For now, the semiconductor industry is a tale of the “haves” and “have-nots”. Newer, innovative companies are taking the baton from older industry stalwarts. Investors should gravitate toward companies with solid growth, expectations, and relative price strength.
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Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) : Free Stock Analysis Report
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) : Free Stock Analysis Report
General Motors Company (GM) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (LSCC) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) : Free Stock Analysis Report
NIO Inc. (NIO) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY) : Free Stock Analysis Report
To read this article on Zacks.com click here. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=66c92a380817fc86ff5377e221c965d3b523675eb8d7651d2c8e5aa495064783 | NVIDIA Corp. stock falls Monday, underperforms market | Shares of NVIDIA Corp. slid 1.91% to $162.54 Monday, on what proved to be an all-around grim trading session for the stock market, with the S&P 500 Index... | 2022-12-19T09:14:00 | MarketWatch | Shares of NVIDIA Corp.
NVDA,
+0.37%
slid 1.91% to $162.54 Monday, on what proved to be an all-around grim trading session for the stock market, with the S&P 500 Index
SPX,
-0.53%
falling 0.90% to 3,817.66 and Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-0.43%
falling 0.49% to 32,757.54. This was the stock's fourth consecutive day of losses. NVIDIA Corp. closed $150.76 below its 52-week high ($313.30), which the company achieved on December 28th.
Trading volume (35.3 M) remained 17.3 million below its 50-day average volume of 52.7 M.
Editor's Note: This story was auto-generated by Automated Insights, an automation technology provider, using data from Dow Jones and FactSet. See our market data terms of use. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=77002e565ec088dc87ef5c1ed2eb0df96b5646de33e54cf6cf64dcbe262d403f | 2 Top-Ranked Stocks to Buy From the Edge Computing Space in 2023 | Here we present two top-ranked tech stocks, ANET and NET, which are poised to benefit from growth opportunities in the edge computing market in 2023. | 2022-12-19T07:13:03 | Yahoo | 2 Top-Ranked Stocks to Buy From the Edge Computing Space in 2023
Edge computing is a distributed computing architecture that relocates processing and data storage near data sources. The speed of 5G, combined with edge computing, further reduces the latency to support use cases, wherein near-real-time processing is critical.
The edge computing industry is being shaped by several trends. With the rise of the Internet of Things (IoT), and the increasing need for greater data processing and analytics, the demand for edge computing is growing.
According to a report by Grand View Research, the global edge computing industry is expected to attain a value of $11.24 billion by the end of 2022, and grow, witnessing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.9% from 2022 through 2030, reaching a value of $155.90 billion at the end of the forecast period.
This is driving companies such as Arista Networks ANET and Cloudflare NET to adopt edge solutions to better manage their data, reduce latency and improve overall user experience. With the rising demand for edge computing solutions, investors are pouring money into the space.
Edge computing use cases are expanding, as businesses look for new ways to leverage the technology. Because 5G creates a bigger, faster medium to carry data, it can deliver the ultra-low latency required for many applications, including the widespread deployment of autonomous vehicles, advanced healthcare services such as remote telesurgery and the metaverse.
Edge Computing Players Leading the Way to Growth
Some of the top companies leading the global edge computing industry are Microsoft Corporation MSFT, Alphabet GOOGL and NVIDIA NVDA. These are well-positioned to benefit from the secular tailwinds in the enterprise software and edge computing space.
Microsoft has a large and diverse portfolio of products and services, from cloud computing and machine learning to artificial intelligence and IoT. This gives the company a unique advantage in the edge computing market, as it can offer customers a comprehensive solution that covers all their needs. Azure Edge Zones provide customers with secure, low-latency networks that help them optimize their edge computing performance.
Alphabet is an industry leader in edge computing, allowing businesses to leverage the power of cloud computing, while maintaining control of their data. The company is investing heavily in edge computing solutions, such as its Google Distributed Cloud Platform, to help businesses reduce latency and increase efficiency.
NVIDIA is at the forefront of the edge computing market. The company is a leading provider of edge computing hardware and chips. NVDA’s edge computing solutions leverage its graphic processing units to enable organizations to process large amounts of data quickly and efficiently. The NVIDIA EGX platform is designed to bring AI, machine learning and other advanced analytics to the edge. The platform can be used in a wide range of applications, including autonomous vehicles, factory automation and smart cities.
Our Picks
Given the above-mentioned positives, we have picked two tech stocks that offer solid investment opportunities and are well-poised to grow in 2023. Each company sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and has a positive earnings estimate revision. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Year-to-Date Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Arista Networks is engaged in providing cloud networking solutions for data centers and cloud computing environments. The company offers 10/25/40/50/100 Gigabit Ethernet switches and routers optimized for next-generation data center networks. The company has a software-driven, data-centric approach to help customers build their cloud architecture and enhance their cloud experience. It is well-poised for growth in the data-driven cloud networking market with its proactive platforms and predictive operations.
ANET’s edge computing solutions are designed to help customers reduce latency, increase network performance and improve security. Arista announced unified edge innovations across wired and wireless networks for its Cognitive Campus Edge portfolio for Enterprise Workspaces. It presented an enterprise-grade Software-as-a-Service offering for the flagship CloudVision platform. The company also introduced several additions to its multi-cloud and cloud-native software product family with CloudEOS Edge, which are expected to drive demand in 2023.
This Zacks Rank #1 company expects continued growth within its enterprise vertical in the forthcoming quarters, with customer mix being the key driver. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s 2023 earnings has been revised upward by 0.6% to $5.19 per share, indicating growth of 18.6% from the year-ago reported figure.
Cloudflare is an internet services company that provides a range of services, including cloud computing, cybersecurity and edge computing. The company’s integrated cloud-based security solution helps secure a range of combinations of platforms, including public cloud, private cloud, on-premise, software-as-a-service applications and IoT devices worldwide.
NET’s security products comprise cloud firewall, bot management, distributed denial of service, IoT, SSL/TLS, secure origin connection and rate limiting products. Cloudflare offers performance solutions, which include content delivery and intelligent routing, as well as content, mobile and image optimization solutions. NET provides reliability solutions, comprising load balancing, anycast network, virtual backbone, DNS, DNS resolver, and online and virtual waiting room solutions.
Increasing demand for the Zacks Rank #2 company’s cloud-based solutions from new large customers (annual billings of more than $100,000) is expected to boost its top-line growth in 2023.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s 2023 earnings is has been unchanged at 15 cents per share, indicating year-over-year growth of 33.6%.
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Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) : Free Stock Analysis Report
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) : Free Stock Analysis Report
To read this article on Zacks.com click here. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=8076a803ab00cc9d816c2dd4ee58168f5a2420ad0a5a9c9da149166cbb7b2d14 | Google, Amazon, Microsoft's Growing Finance Business Is Getting Them Bank-Like Treatment. Are Beaten Down Tech Stocks A Buy Now? | Tech stocks are trading below their 50-day moving average. Watch these support and resistance levels on your tech watchlist. | 2022-12-19T05:58:29 | Yahoo | Apple Hubs In India, Vietnam Next Year; China Exodus By 2025. Are Beaten Down Tech Stocks A Buy Now?
Tech stocks are trading below their 50-day moving average. Watch these support and resistance levels on your tech watchlist.
Tech stocks are trading below their 50-day moving average. Watch these support and resistance levels on your tech watchlist.
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The week ahead will feature a crucial inflation report and earnings out of Disney, UPS, and Alibaba as second quarter earnings season winds down.
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Dubbed the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett is renowned for his simple and frugal lifestyle. Despite being the sixth richest person globally, with a net worth estimated at $117.9 billion, Buffett continues to live in the same modest home in Omaha that he purchased in 1958 for just $31,500. Adjusted for inflation, that amount today would be approximately $328,990.80, a mere 0.000279% of his total net worth. Buffett has consistently ranked the purchase of his home as the third-best investment he ha
As a pandemic-inspired boom ends, entrepreneurs and giant corporations alike are counting on customers to keep accumulating more stuff than they can squeeze into their homes. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=c505f653db46fad7646c21868146caf30e22d4d148df225496e58ec4edf8482a | What's the Better Investment: A Diversified AMD or an AI Software-Focused Nvidia? | In today's video, Jose Najarro and Nick Rossolillo discuss Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) and Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and how these semiconductor giants are very similar at the moment but becoming vastly different as they develop. | 2022-12-19T06:01:21 | Yahoo | What's the Better Investment: A Diversified AMD or an AI Software-Focused Nvidia?
In today's video, Jose Najarro and Nick Rossolillo discuss Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) and Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and how these semiconductor giants are very similar at the moment but becoming vastly different as they develop. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=c53767b1e95a450d51c66bf8330617f3f533bbb2850f8232925ca41b4b82acc3 | Dow Jones Futures Rise After Stock Market Rally's Ugly Outside Week; Here's What To Do | The market rally started strong, but sold off hard in a big outside week. Apple, Tesla dived. Leading stocks tumbled. Here's what to do. | 2022-12-18T17:46:21 | Yahoo | Investopedia
Warren Buffett is undeniably the most famous and influential investor in modern history, based on his extraordinary performance record. Not surprisingly, the investment portfolio of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A), the holding company employing the Oracle of Omaha as chairman and CEO, receives wide media attention and scrutiny, even though Buffett is no longer making every investment decision. Despite his unparalleled success, Buffett's investment model has long been transparent, straightforward, and consistent. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=e33a18cfbcd5c1a7a49d921631ef17e19d369988a00a47ba844194ed678a7869 | 10 Cheapest Stocks With Biggest Upside | In this article, we discuss the 10 cheapest stocks with the biggest upside. If you want to read about some more cheapest stocks with the biggest upside, go directly to 5 Cheapest Stocks With Biggest Upside. According to the advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in late October 2022, the real gross […] | 2022-12-19T05:17:51 | Yahoo | 10 Cheapest Stocks With Biggest Upside
In this article, we discuss the 10 cheapest stocks with the biggest upside. If you want to read about some more cheapest stocks with the biggest upside, go directly to 5 Cheapest Stocks With Biggest Upside.
According to the advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in late October 2022, the real gross domestic product (GDP) in the US increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the third quarter of 2022. The increase in real GDP reflected increases in exports, consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending, which were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and private inventory investment.
The stock market has been witnessing high volumes as the latest numbers from the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicate that the US economy grew an annualized 2.9% at the end of 2022, better than the initial estimate of 2.6%, and beating forecasts of 2.7%. The performance reflects the upward revisions to consumer and business spending and net trade. The biggest positive contribution came from net trade, as imports sank more while exports rose more. The nonresidential investment jumped at a faster 5.1% which is better than the expected 3.7%.
Considering the expenditure side, personal consumption expenditures account for 68% of total GDP, out of which purchases of goods constitute 23% and services 45%. Moreover, private investment accounts for 16% of GDP and government consumption and investment for 18%. The figures paint a warmer picture for the US economy considering the slowdown witnessed in the first two quarters of the year, boosting stocks like NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD), and Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX).
As far as the global economy is concerned, it is still adjusting to the pandemic shock and the subsequent policy response. In 2023, the US economy will continue to face a rather different set of risks, according to a recent Bloomberg report which shows that a recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months. Likewise, analysis published by Financial Times shows that economists are thinking about a recession likely to happen in the US, with the probability of such a recession being more than 60%.
Moreover, tightening financial conditions, persistent inflation and expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve are raising the risk of a contraction as well. These uncertainties are fanning the flames of inflation and nudging the Fed toward an even more aggressive policy path. However, there is hope that the cyclical sector of the US market still contains plausible soft-landing potential, a combination of an outcome where job openings are falling while the unemployment rate remains low.
As the stock market recovers from a dismal 2022 and prepares for an uncertain 2023, investors eager for an entry point into the stock world should consider investing in some cheap stocks that have explosive growth potential. These options can provide investors with some balanced risk/reward profiles in a market where investments in value stocks are soaring and putting money into prominent growth stocks carries much higher levels of risk. Some of these options are discussed below.
Investing in the US market is also advisable since it is the largest and the most accessible market in the world. No other market is as liquid as the US stock market. The number of listed companies in the US far outnumber those in other parts of the world. The NASDAQ and the New York Stock Exchange also represent one of the single biggest concentrations of money in global history. This means that they have a large market capitalization and high transaction volumes, boosting chances of solid returns.
Photo by Ruben Sukatendel on Unsplash
Our Methodology
The companies that have upcoming growth catalysts and were priced under $50 per share, as of December 18, were selected for the list. Special importance was assigned to outlining the basic business fundamentals and analyst ratings for each firm to provide readers with some context so they can make more informed investment choices. Data from around 900 elite hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey in the third quarter of 2022 was used to identify the number of hedge funds that hold stakes in each firm.
Cheapest Stocks With Biggest Upside
10. Sunlands Technology Group (NYSE:STG)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: N/A
Share Price as of December 18: $6.65
Sunlands Technology Group (NYSE:STG) provides online education services in the People’s Republic of China. On November 23, the firm posted earnings for the third quarter of 2022, reporting earnings per share of $3.38. The revenue over the period was $81 million, down more than 3% compared to the revenue over the same period last year. However, the firm revealed that new student enrollments were 134,987, representing a more than 44% increase compared to the prior year.
Sunlands Technology Group (NYSE:STG) is one of the Chinese stocks in the US that has gained recently as fears of delisting ease following deals between US and Chinese authorities with regards to auditing. Goldman Sachs has called these deals regulatory breakthroughs.
Unlike NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD), and Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX), Sunlands Technology Group (NYSE:STG) is one of the more affordable stocks to buy right now.
9. Globus Maritime Limited (NASDAQ:GLBS)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 3
Share Price as of December 18: $1.12
Globus Maritime Limited (NASDAQ:GLBS) is an integrated dry bulk shipping company that provides marine transportation services worldwide. On August 25, CIT, a division of First Citizens Bank, announced that it has expanded its financing to support the growth of Globus Maritime’s dry-bulk shipping portfolio. CIT increased its lending to $52.25 million by adding $18 million. In addition to securing new financing, the firm has also posted encouraging third quarter results recently.
In the third quarter, the firm posted earnings per share of $0.21. The revenue over the period was close to $16 million, up more than 24% compared to the revenue over the same period last year and beating analyst estimates by $2.9 million.
Among the hedge funds being tracked by Insider Monkey, Washington-based firm Sabby Capital is a leading shareholder in Globus Maritime Limited (NASDAQ:GLBS) with 509,659 shares worth more than $638,000.
At the end of the third quarter of 2022, 3 hedge funds in the database of Insider Monkey held stakes worth $876,000 in Globus Maritime Limited (NASDAQ:GLBS), compared to 3 in the previous quarter worth $1.7 million.
8. BEST Inc. (NYSE:BEST)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 3
Share Price as of December 18: $0.65
BEST Inc. (NYSE:BEST) operates as a smart supply chain service provider in China. The firm provides a range of software-as-a-service solutions in the industry, including in sectors such as network and route optimization, swap bodies, sorting line automation, smart warehouses, and store management. The stock has benefited from a deal between Chinese and US authorities that have eased delisting fears for Chinese firms in the US. The firm posted more than $285 million in revenue in the third quarter of 2022.
At the end of the third quarter of 2022, 3 hedge funds in the database of Insider Monkey held stakes worth $68,000 in BEST Inc. (NYSE:BEST), compared to 3 in the previous quarter worth $160,000.
Among the hedge funds being tracked by Insider Monkey, New York-based firm Renaissance Technologies is a leading shareholder in BEST Inc. (NYSE:BEST) with 74,400 shares worth more than $51,000.
7. AcelRx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACRX)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 5
Share Price as of December 18: $2.39
AcelRx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACRX), a specialty pharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapies for the treatment of acute pain. On December 8, AcelRx Pharmaceutical’s stock was soaring after its sublingual sufentanil tablets for postoperative pain management showed lower pain scores, and fewer rescue doses and a shorter hospital stay in patients compared to those receiving continuous femoral nerve block. The firm also posted a 217% year-on-year increase in DSUVIA sales in Q3.
At the end of the third quarter of 2022, 5 hedge funds in the database of Insider Monkey held stakes worth $1.5 million in AcelRx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACRX), compared to 3 the preceding quarter worth $1.8 million.
Among the hedge funds being tracked by Insider Monkey, New York-based firm Millennium Management is a leading shareholder in AcelRx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACRX) with 197,000 shares worth more than $41,000.
6. Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. (NYSE:NM)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 7
Share Price as of December 18: $1.73
Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. (NYSE:NM) operates as a seaborne shipping and logistics company in North America, Australia, Europe, Asia, South America, and internationally. On September 14, Navios Maritime Holdings said that it commenced a tender offer to buy up to $20 million of the outstanding series G and series H American depositary shares for cash. Navios Maritime’s shares have risen since the firm reported a 10.9% growth in the second quarter’s revenue to $159.2 million. The revenue from the dry bulk vessel operations increased by 4.6% to $90 million, broadly reflecting the increase in the time charter and freight market during the quarter.
At the end of the third quarter of 2022, 7 hedge funds in the database of Insider Monkey held stakes worth $31.6 million in Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. (NYSE:NM), compared to 7 in the previous quarter worth $17 million.
In contrast to NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD), and Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX), Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. (NYSE:NM) is one of the more affordable stocks to buy right now.
Click to continue reading and see 5 Cheapest Stocks With Biggest Upside.
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Disclosure. None. 10 Cheapest Stocks With Biggest Upside is originally published on Insider Monkey. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=3b36537b708c342ea5ed8b1d41b635540e8b8dfbc0e36c902ecf248dff0b2f8a | Institutional owners may take dramatic actions as NVIDIA Corporation's (NASDAQ:NVDA) recent 5.5% drop adds to one-year losses | To get a sense of who is truly in control of NVIDIA Corporation ( NASDAQ:NVDA ), it is important to understand the... | 2022-12-19T03:00:16 | Yahoo | Institutional owners may take dramatic actions as NVIDIA Corporation's (NASDAQ:NVDA) recent 5.5% drop adds to one-year losses
To get a sense of who is truly in control of NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), it is important to understand the ownership structure of the business. We can see that institutions own the lion's share in the company with 65% ownership. Put another way, the group faces the maximum upside potential (or downside risk).
And institutional investors endured the highest losses after the company's share price fell by 5.5% last week. Needless to say, the recent loss which further adds to the one-year loss to shareholders of 40% might not go down well especially with this category of shareholders. Institutions or "liquidity providers" control large sums of money and therefore, these types of investors usually have a lot of influence over stock price movements. As a result, if the downtrend continues, institutions may face pressures to sell NVIDIA, which might have negative implications on individual investors.
Let's take a closer look to see what the different types of shareholders can tell us about NVIDIA.
Check out our latest analysis for NVIDIA
What Does The Institutional Ownership Tell Us About NVIDIA?
Institutional investors commonly compare their own returns to the returns of a commonly followed index. So they generally do consider buying larger companies that are included in the relevant benchmark index.
We can see that NVIDIA does have institutional investors; and they hold a good portion of the company's stock. This suggests some credibility amongst professional investors. But we can't rely on that fact alone since institutions make bad investments sometimes, just like everyone does. It is not uncommon to see a big share price drop if two large institutional investors try to sell out of a stock at the same time. So it is worth checking the past earnings trajectory of NVIDIA, (below). Of course, keep in mind that there are other factors to consider, too.
Investors should note that institutions actually own more than half the company, so they can collectively wield significant power. NVIDIA is not owned by hedge funds. The Vanguard Group, Inc. is currently the company's largest shareholder with 8.3% of shares outstanding. Meanwhile, the second and third largest shareholders, hold 7.2% and 5.5%, of the shares outstanding, respectively. In addition, we found that Jen-Hsun Huang, the CEO has 3.5% of the shares allocated to their name.
On studying our ownership data, we found that 25 of the top shareholders collectively own less than 50% of the share register, implying that no single individual has a majority interest.
While studying institutional ownership for a company can add value to your research, it is also a good practice to research analyst recommendations to get a deeper understand of a stock's expected performance. There are a reasonable number of analysts covering the stock, so it might be useful to find out their aggregate view on the future.
Insider Ownership Of NVIDIA
While the precise definition of an insider can be subjective, almost everyone considers board members to be insiders. Company management run the business, but the CEO will answer to the board, even if he or she is a member of it.
I generally consider insider ownership to be a good thing. However, on some occasions it makes it more difficult for other shareholders to hold the board accountable for decisions.
We can see that insiders own shares in NVIDIA Corporation. It is a very large company, and board members collectively own US$17b worth of shares (at current prices). Most would say this shows a good alignment of interests between shareholders and the board. Still, it might be worth checking if those insiders have been selling.
General Public Ownership
The general public-- including retail investors -- own 31% stake in the company, and hence can't easily be ignored. While this group can't necessarily call the shots, it can certainly have a real influence on how the company is run.
Next Steps:
While it is well worth considering the different groups that own a company, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for NVIDIA that you should be aware of.
But ultimately it is the future, not the past, that will determine how well the owners of this business will do. Therefore we think it advisable to take a look at this free report showing whether analysts are predicting a brighter future.
NB: Figures in this article are calculated using data from the last twelve months, which refer to the 12-month period ending on the last date of the month the financial statement is dated. This may not be consistent with full year annual report figures.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=f62dd00c63f4198d3cbcc6d5525db8d0b55031ff80a84566fd8a93ce6abd3175 | Ripple leads way as most big cryptocurrencies post decreases | Most of the largest cryptocurrencies were down during morning trading on Monday, with Ripple seeing the biggest change, tumbling 2.41% to 34 cents. Seven... | 2022-12-19T02:00:00 | MarketWatch | Most of the largest cryptocurrencies were down during morning trading on Monday, with Ripple
XRPUSD,
+0.36%
seeing the biggest change, tumbling 2.41% to 34 cents.
Seven additional currencies posted reductions Monday. Dogecoin
DOGEUSD,
-1.13%
dropped 1.96% to 8 cents, and Litecoin
LTCUSD,
-0.21%
shed 1.48% to $63.43.
Cardano
ADAUSD,
-0.11%
declined 1.48% to 26 cents, while Bitcoin Cash
BCHUSD,
-1.39%
inched down 0.82% to $101.24. Uniswap
UNIUSD,
-0.36%
slipped 0.56% to $5.30.
Polkadot
DOTUSD,
+0.62%
and Bitcoin
BTCUSD,
-0.01%
rounded out the decreases for Monday, dropping 0.38% to $4.64 and 0.09% to $16,735.13, respectively.
On the other hand, Ethereum
ETHUSD,
-0.24%
posted the only increase among the largest cryptos, rising 0.29% to $1,186.47.
In crypto-related company news, shares of Coinbase Global Inc.
COIN,
-3.79%
declined 3.48% to $35.33, while MicroStrategy Inc.
MSTR,
-3.32%
slid 0.87% to $172.23. Riot Blockchain Inc.
RIOT,
-3.93%
shares fell 2.89% to $3.69, and shares of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc.
MARA,
-4.41%
shed 2.19% to $3.80.
Overstock.com Inc.
OSTK,
-6.52%
sank 0.66% to $20.29, while Block Inc.
SQ,
-13.64%
fell 2.08% to $61.21 and Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
-2.11%
rose 2.21% to $153.55.
PayPal Holdings Inc.
PYPL,
-2.23%
shed 1.43% to $68.27, and Ebang International Holdings Inc.
EBON,
-2.53%
shares climbed 2.26% to $3.17. NVIDIA Corp.
NVDA,
+0.37%
fell 1.99% to $162.41, and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
AMD,
+2.36%
fell 1.43% to $64.29.
In the fund space, blockchain-focused Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF
BLOK,
-1.86%
dropped 1.04% to $15.27. The Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF
BITQ,
-4.08%,
which is focused on pure-play crypto companies, dropped 3.66% to $3.54. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust
GBTC,
which tracks the Bitcoin market price, rose 4.92% to $8.32.
Editor's Note: This story was auto-generated by Automated Insights, an automation technology provider, using data from Dow Jones and FactSet. See our market data terms of use. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=fa378861868a1d13c5df726ca55a9bc7fd2959c8346e85f0d1a99ee530d049d4 | AMD: Leading The Data Center Market | AMD could sustain Data Center growth due to its architecture lead over Intel. See why AMD is a buy amidst the shifting geopolitical landscape and Chip Wars. | 2022-12-19T01:00:00 | SeekingAlpha | AMD: Leading The Data Center Market
Summary
- AMD could sustain Data Center growth due to its architecture lead over Intel.
- The company's shifting mix toward higher-margin Data Center and Embedded segments will also boost operating-profit growth.
- AMD’s EPYC could capture cloud share faster than Intel through 2025.
- AMD is a buy amidst the shifting geopolitical landscape and Chip Wars.
- We're about to raise prices at my private investing ideas service, Yiazou Capital Research, where members get access to portfolios, market alerts, real-time chat, and more. Learn More »
Investment Thesis
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) has substantially underperformed the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) index. However, its improving growth prospects, revenue mix, growing Data-Center market share, and attractive valuation make AMD a buy amidst the global Chip Wars and for the long term.
Improved Positioning In The Data-Center Market
AMD's technology portfolio and focus on increasingly modular and interconnected chips have aided its positioning in the data-center market. As a result, AMD's data center continues to post strong growth, with revenue up 45% YoY in Q3 2022 to $1.6 billion from $1.1 billion in Q3 2021.
Performance superiority is a consistent theme across AMD's data-center products. This makes it among the top hyperscale cloud providers, significantly contributing to its revenue. This segment is also lucrative from a gross margin perspective. Moreover, AMD's extension of its portfolio across single and dual-socket CPUs to address a variety of server workloads will help expand its reach and lift pricing.
AMD is well-positioned to keep expanding data-center share as it widens the range of workloads, particularly for artificial intelligence training and inference. AMD's chiplet architecture for connecting different computing units enables it to configure chips in a highly tailored manner, especially for high-end customized workloads. As a result, even with a likely slowdown in hyperscalers' capital spending, AMD could sustain data-center growth of more than 25-30% due to its architecture lead over Intel Corporation (INTC), reflected in superior chip performance and higher average selling prices.
The company has also announced that it will infuse its CPU portfolio with Xilinx's FPGA-powered AI inference engine, with the first products slated to arrive in 2023. As a result, AMD could nearly double its market share in data centers to around 40% through 2025, driven by its lead in chiplet and performance improvement for custom workloads due to the addition of Xilinx and Pensando accelerators.
Client CPU Share Can Remain Steady Despite Weakening PC TAM
Client (desktop/notebook CPU) sales saw a significant reset in Q3 2022, declining 53% QoQ, driven by a weaker-than-expected PC market compounded by ongoing inventory burn across the PC supply chain. The management expects PC industry units to be down high-teens to 20% this year compared to its prior expectation for a mid-teens % decrease followed by a ~10% decline in 2023 as the supply chain continues to adjust inventories down for at least the next 2-3 quarters. The team is significantly under-shipping to PC consumption to help flush channel inventories, which should support Client revenues to inflect to the upside in 2H23.
Revenue Mix Shift & Chip Performance Improvements Lift Margins
AMD's rising chip performance per watt, driven by the use of leading-edge process nodes from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), and the infusion of accelerators with its chiplet architecture, may support the firm to sustain top-line growth faster than the overall market.
AMD's sales growth is fueled by high-performance products and continuous increases in chip performance per watt ahead of rivals, notably Intel. As a result, AMD could exceed its long-term 20% sales-growth target rate, with estimates have come down sharply for 2023 following its inventory correction tied to the Client segment.
The company's strong road map for custom workloads in data centers and diversification into other markets, such as networking, should support the company in sustaining top-line gains faster than the semiconductor market. Thus, the company's shifting mix toward higher-margin Data centers and Embedded segments will boost operating profit growth faster than the top line.
Genoa: EPYC 4th Gen Is A Game Changer
AMD delivered yet another impressive family of server CPU products, helping to extend and solidify its server CPU product leadership compared to INTC, which continues to recover from past missteps. In addition, AMD's 4th gen server processors (codenamed Genoa) offer significant improvements compared to both AMD's prior Gen of products and INTC's existing Ice Lake products.
Though AMD could not compare performance with INTC's Sapphire Rapids (which still needs to ramp in volume), Genoa rumors to be superior. Notably, at up to 96 cores, AMD broadened its suite of offerings in this generation to meet a more diverse set of customer needs, with different SKUs optimizing for density, cache, frequency, cost, etc. In addition, the launch included endorsements from key data center ecosystem players in both Cloud (Google, Microsoft Azure, Oracle) and Enterprise/HPC (Dell, HPE, Lenovo, Supermicro, VMware).
From a performance standpoint, AMD's Genoa is estimated to generate a gen-to-gen ~2.6x efficiency improvement for Cloud workloads, a ~2.5x improvement in floating point ops performance for HPC, and a ~2.9x improvement in performance for Enterprise workloads, with improvement on a performance-per-watt basis across all three segments as well. AMD also highlighted the EPYC family of processors has now achieved over 300 world records, up from 200 since the launch of Milan.
Finally, Intel may begin shipping its 7-nm chips after production delays in 2023. AMD's EPYC server CPUs, now on third-generation 7-nm chips, are set to shift to 5-nm, maintaining an advantage over Intel. In addition, the 5-nm chips aid performance, shrink price premiums and reduce costs. Thus, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft could move more workloads to AMD servers through 2023.
New GPU Launch Could Stimulate Demand
AMD's 7900 XTX/XT RDNA3 was launched on December 13 at $999/$899 and is competing with the more expensive NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)'s RTX 4080 (~$1200 MSRP), while the RTX 4070 Ti, the rebranded RTX 4080 12GB (originally $899), could release in January as both NVIDIA and AMD look to expand their mass-market in GPUs into 2023.
AMD's RX 7900 XTX delivers a comparable gaming performance to the NVDIA's RTX 4080. Still, the $200 difference in pricing would be the key differentiating factor for AMD's newly launched GPU as gamers make a purchase decision in an economy where discretionary spending is dwindling. In addition, other mass-market versions at lower prices in 2023 could help drive demand in the next few quarters.
Client Weakness Favors Valuation
AMD's price/earnings multiple has come down sharply after the estimates' slowdown for sales and profit growth amid an inventory correction in its client segment. Yet, the market could be under-assessing resilience in the Data Center business and overstating the possibilities for expansion by Intel. In addition, AMD's server growth can aid sales mix and margins, as Intel's server-share loss and foundry expansion hurt the chipmaker's margins.
In addition, AMD's transition to the 5-nm process aids its cost profile, and its chip-performance advantage is helping close the gap with Intel on pricing. As AMD builds its Data Center portfolio with the recent acquisitions of Xilinx and Pensando, Intel risks losing market share across multiple workloads.
Conclusion
Despite growing macro headwinds buffeting the PC market compounded by continued inventory work-downs across the PC supply chain, AMD's Data center and Embedded businesses remain relatively strong heading into 2023 on a resilient North American cloud environment and continued strength in military, aero, industrial and communications sectors.
Author of Yiazou Capital Research
Unlock your investment potential through deep business analysis.
I am the founder of Yiazou Capital Research, a research platform designed to elevate your due diligence process through in-depth analysis of businesses.
I have previously worked for Deloitte and KPMG in external auditing, internal auditing, and consulting.
I am a Chartered Certified Accountant and an ACCA Global member, and I hold BSc and MSc degrees from leading UK business schools.
In addition to my research platform, I am also the founder of a private business.
This article was written by
I am the founder of Yiazou Capital Research, a stock-market research platform designed to elevate the due diligence process through in-depth analysis of businesses.
I previously worked for Deloitte and KPMG in external & internal auditing and consulting.
I am a Chartered Certified Accountant and a Fellow Member of ACCA Global, and I hold BSc and MSc degrees from leading UK business schools.
In addition to my research platform, I am also the founder of a private business.
My primary strategy focuses on high-quality, free cash flow generative stocks with an above-average growth rate and a strong business moat.
I manage my own highly concentrated portfolio, and I occasionally engage in short-term trades to profit from asset mispricings when Mr. Market does not feel very well.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of INTC, AMD either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Comments (50)
www.youtube.com/...
www.youtube.com/...
- AMD RDNA ll stalls in the face of RDNA lll wait and see
- 187 dGPU SKUs, AMD, Intel, Nvidia ranked on channel inventory holding
- Change in channel inventory by SKU on 10.13 to 11.19 to 12.22.22
- By product generation, category, and overall brand market share noted.Mike Bruzzone, Camp Marketing
Standing fanboys in full panic mode
They never say INTC had 99% and lost 17 to 25% and dropped $13 billion in revenue while 100 billion in cost is required for FABS to keep up with the industry
Always taped in taped out and company slides about some future thing.
Merry Xmas anyway INTEL Fanboys the Grinch is coming for INTC next year with a bag of delays.INTC still falling with all your great power point roadmaps not a single tech point has helped the price.
stockcharts.com/...
People don't know what they don't know.
People can only see what they are capable of seeing.
People see what they like or want to see, and likely people enjoy seeing what they prefer seeing.
Enjoy the music for a happy holiday:
www.youtube.com/...
www.youtube.com/...
A bag of delays... I love it. Coming Christmas 2022: "Everything is ahead of schedule"Coming Christmas 2023..... "Meteor lake will ramp in 9 months"- - ... but on Intel 7... because it is better than N3"Coming Christmas 2024. "20A and 18A products delayed again... because we are making them super duper awesom-er!"I forgot: Christmas 2023: "Intel posted (-$14Billion) cash flow in 2022. EPS is (-$4.00). Pat has decided to retire to spend more time with Family.... we thank him for creating a money losing, cash burning business... couldn't have done it without his leadership " Lisa Su is begged by Intel board to run both AMD and Intel ..... she states "a trained monkey could do a better job with Intel than past CEO"
H11 (for 1st Gen, 7xx1, SP3 4094 socket) / X11 (for 2nd Gen, 3647 socket), 9/46.
H12 (for 2nd & 3rd Gen, 7xx2 & 7xx3, SP3 4094 socket) / X12 (for 3rd Gen, 4189 socket), 25/34.
H13 (for 4th Gen, 9xx4, SP5 6096 socket) / X13 (for 4th Gen, 4677 socket), 6/na.
9/46 -> 25/34 -> 6/na.
I had the confidence in Lisa Su leading the company and used averaging-down to make $$$ once, and now it's the second chance.
Wish all AMD believers make $$$ from AMD; be patient!www.youtube.com/...
www.youtube.com/...
First, as explained many times, AMD DC growth is not really limited anywhere now. Whether it's core count, frequency across cores, and/or TCO, AMD leads. Genoa's support for bfloat, AVX, and floating point also gives it an AI edge in CPUs that are still the primary chip used for things like inference, even if GPUs are better.
Second, AMDs revenue share of the DC market is 25%, with 100% profit share right now.
Third, AMD is expected to continue it's revenue share tear. AMDs Bergamo will help resist ARM inroads as it is optimized for core count/throughput.
Everyone expects AMD to gain share for the foreseeable future. Charts show DC revenue growth goes nowhere but up. Desktop will return/jump when Intel's dumping in the channel clears some, AMD leads with 3d v-cache models, and mobo costs decline.
" AMDs revenue share of the DC market is 25%" Only in the minds of AMD shareholder and AMD management because they do not count some markets. Everyone else has them at 17%.
" GPUs are better." A market that AMD has clearly failed in. After having nearly 50% market share when they bought ATI it is now down to 8% and falling.
" AMDs Bergamo will help resist ARM inroads as it is optimized for core count/throughput." A product that is due out in 25/26 timeframe good luck with that
I'm just looking at earnings in DC segments.
Not failed. They're behind in software, and they prioritize CPUs. They're still expanding with Instinct.
Bergamo is 1H23.
First, as had been explained many times in other articles AMD growth in the data center is limited to a market that needs high core counts. AMD has no AI.
Second, this strategy has helped AMD gain about 15% market share over 5 years to a total of 17%.
Third, recent estimates for DC for 2023 have AMD around 18% share, ARM around 7% and Intel at 75% down from their current 77% share.
I did not realize that ARM was this high Intel has a game plan for ARM in DC by offering both ARM and RISK V solutions.
Pat G says he expects Intel to lose share for a couple more quarters as Sapphire rapids ramps. In Q2 he expects to start taking back some share. He was right on Desktop and PC as AMD share took a big hit last quarter.
Appreciate the focused and concise piece. Is it plausible, in your opinion, that AMD is gradually pivoting away from consumer markets and deepening its focus on high margin enterprise TAM? Would acquisitions of Xilinx and Pensando give it the foundation to break away from competition in such markets? | NVDA |
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Warren Buffett is undeniably the most famous and influential investor in modern history, based on his extraordinary performance record. Not surprisingly, the investment portfolio of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A), the holding company employing the Oracle of Omaha as chairman and CEO, receives wide media attention and scrutiny, even though Buffett is no longer making every investment decision. Despite his unparalleled success, Buffett's investment model has long been transparent, straightforward, and consistent. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=a1417a7799769ff9eb195f8fb8b6385ad188117c1048410e54c4d82c7cdfa075 | Big Techs' Growing Finance Business Is Getting Them Bank-Like Treatment. Are Beaten Down Tech Stocks A Buy Now? | Tech stocks are trading below their 50-day moving average. Watch these support and resistance levels on your tech watchlist. | 2022-12-18T20:03:29 | Yahoo | Apple Hubs In India, Vietnam Next Year; China Exodus By 2025. Are Beaten Down Tech Stocks A Buy Now?
Tech stocks are trading below their 50-day moving average. Watch these support and resistance levels on your tech watchlist.
Tech stocks are trading below their 50-day moving average. Watch these support and resistance levels on your tech watchlist.
Mark Spitznagel and Nassim Taleb have been watching for black swans for decades. "We’ve never seen anything like this level of total debt and leverage in the system," he tells Fortune. "It's an experiment."
Warren Buffett is undeniably the most famous and influential investor in modern history, based on his extraordinary performance record. Not surprisingly, the investment portfolio of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A), the holding company employing the Oracle of Omaha as chairman and CEO, receives wide media attention and scrutiny, even though Buffett is no longer making every investment decision. Despite his unparalleled success, Buffett's investment model has long been transparent, straightforward, and consistent.
Stocks have blown past expectations for 2023 – but some analysts are bracing for a sell-off as the market approaches record highs.
The JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF’s (NYSEARCA:JEPI) combination of high yield and monthly payments has quickly made it one of the market’s most popular ETFs. Investors who like JEPI’s style now have another high-yield competitor to consider — the NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF (BATS:SPYI), which also pays on a monthly basis and yields 10.7%. Let’s take a closer look at this intriguing new option for high-yield investors. What is SPYI ETF’s Strategy? Launched in August of 2022, SPYI is still a
Just because you retire doesn't mean you have to stop working. And when work is an option rather than a requirement, it's possible to select a low-stress job that multiplies fulfillment without adding anxiety - but still provides a bit … Continue reading → The post 12 Low-Stress Jobs You Can Do in Retirement appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.
Berkshire Hathaway historically reports its quarterly financial results on weekends, and CEO Warren Buffet has a simple reason why. Berkshire (ticker: BRK.A, BRK.B) reported second-quarter earnings Saturday morning. Many other public companies, however, release their earnings results during the trading week, either before the market opens or after the closing bell.
The market rally is at an infection point after notable losses. Here's what to do. Warren Buffett's Berkshire earnings rose.
Is there a point at which I should stop reinvesting stock dividends and invest the money or save the cash? -Anonymous Many financial experts recommend that you reinvest dividends most of the time – and I'm inclined to agree. The … Continue reading → The post Ask an Advisor: Should I Stop Reinvesting Dividends? appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.
There are many different approaches and strategies for retirement investing that might appeal to you. But how do you tell if a certain strategy works for your situation? When evaluating different approaches, consider how each strategy is put together and … Continue reading → The post Here's How Much to Keep in Stocks, Bonds and Cash in Retirement appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.
The week ahead will feature a crucial inflation report and earnings out of Disney, UPS, and Alibaba as second quarter earnings season winds down.
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Dubbed the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett is renowned for his simple and frugal lifestyle. Despite being the sixth richest person globally, with a net worth estimated at $117.9 billion, Buffett continues to live in the same modest home in Omaha that he purchased in 1958 for just $31,500. Adjusted for inflation, that amount today would be approximately $328,990.80, a mere 0.000279% of his total net worth. Buffett has consistently ranked the purchase of his home as the third-best investment he ha
As a pandemic-inspired boom ends, entrepreneurs and giant corporations alike are counting on customers to keep accumulating more stuff than they can squeeze into their homes. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=5b39b92cced8172656dcb574c440f3f70fecc106adb1d461632d65cd5de6ae94 | Intel: This Pullback Is An Early Christmas Gift From Mr. Market - Don't Miss It | Intel stock has fallen nearly 15% from its November highs. Investors are likely feeling edgy again. So why is the market still so tentative with INTC? | 2022-12-18T19:52:40 | SeekingAlpha | Intel: This Pullback Is An Early Christmas Gift From Mr. Market - Don't Miss It
Summary
- INTC has fallen nearly 15% from its November highs. Intel investors are likely feeling edgy again. So why is the market still so tentative with INTC?
- TSMC highlighted its plans to increase its CapEx investments in Arizona markedly. But can Intel win critical orders from TSMC's leading customers?
- Intel could lose more market share in the data center segment in 2023, with more intense competition coming from Arm as well.
- Investors need to ask whether the market has priced in such significant challenges. If yes, this pullback is another opportunity to add if you missed its October lows.
- I do much more than just articles at Ultimate Growth Investing: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more. Learn More »
Intel: The Market Is Still Unsure
After forming its November highs, Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) stock has pulled back significantly ahead of its Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) peers. However, even before Intel CFO David Zinsner highlighted in an early December conference that the company's "visibility isn't pristine" going into Q1'23, we believe investors still on board should be keenly aware of its multi-year investment roadmap.
Hence, we don't think investors expect CEO Pat Gelsinger and his team to be posting solid H1'23 results as macroeconomic concerns continue to beset its downstream customers. Also, despite its data center leadership, Intel is projected to lose more share against AMD (AMD) and Arm-based competitors moving forward.
Accordingly, DIGITIMES estimates suggest that cloud computing would likely continue to drive server demand in 2023, despite the downturn in consumer electronics.
It also expects Intel and AMD to benefit from replacement demand in 2023/24 as they push out their next-gen platforms. However, it also cautioned that Arm-based processors could continue to gain share against x86 moving ahead, with AMD continuing to take share within the x86 space. DIGITIMES accentuated:
The US-based top-four cloud data center operators and Chinese first-tier data center operators have all adopted servers powered by AMD's EPYC CPUs in 2022. Since their procurement of AMD-based servers is expected to continue rising, the share of AMD-powered servers is estimated to grow to over 17% in 2023, while that of Intel-powered ones will slump to below 75%, down from around 77% in 2022. Servers equipped with Arm-based processors will see their share rise to slightly below 7% in 2022 and uplift to nearly 8% in 2023 with the keen development of Amazon, Nvidia, and Ampere. - DIGITIMES
Can Intel Foundry Services Really Convince TSMC's Leading Customers?
Hence, market strategists/investors/analysts are justifiably concerned whether Intel's bid to return to process leadership in the medium term could work out.
Furthermore, Intel's near-term growth drivers continue to face significant challenges, with inventory digestion in the consumer markets continuing to persist through H1'23. Even though Intel maintains that it's on track to retake foundry leadership. However, the vital question is whether the market is convinced Intel is on track. Tom's Hardware highlighted:
At the IEDM conference, Intel shared its process technology roadmap and its vision for chip designs that will be available in the next three to four years. As expected, Intel's next-generation fabrication processes - Intel 4 and Intel 3 - are on track to be used for high-volume manufacturing (HVM) in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Furthermore, the company's 20A and 18A production nodes will be ready for HVM in 2024, which means that 18A will be made available ahead of schedule, a slide published by IEEE Spectrum suggests. - Tom's Hardware
Hence, it's clear the company has staked the recovery of its market leadership through the success of Intel Foundry Services (IFS), as it competes with TSMC (TSM) and Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF).
However, the recent resignation of IFS leader Randhir Thakur (slated to remain in Intel through Q1'23) likely didn't inspire confidence as TSMC amped up its CapEx investments in Arizona. While TSMC's Arizona fabs are not intended to be the most advanced process technology when completed, the company remains well-placed to compete for manufacturing capacity with Intel.
Notably, with AMD, Nvidia (NVDA), and Apple (AAPL) signing up as TSMC's first customers in Arizona, Intel would likely to face serious competition as it looks to convince customers that it's ready to take on TSMC in the US.
And to make things even more challenging for Intel, Samsung also plans to overtake TSMC in 2024, as DIGITIMES reported that the Korean semi leader "is preparing a 'master plan' for its foundry business to turn the tables against TSMC in 2024, utilizing its 3nm process to take back orders from major US clients like Qualcomm and Nvidia."
Notably, the 'master plan' encompasses activating its Taylor plant in the US, leveraging the technological reshoring priorities of its fabless customers and "recreate the 'dual-track' strategy from 8 years ago and lure main clients back to Samsung."
Therefore, we believe investors want to see more commitments from Intel's "potential" customers beyond MediaTek (OTCPK:MDTKF). But, these potential customers need to have high confidence that the company is on top of its IFS recovery and can deliver the performance and yields that TSMC is leading. As seen in Qualcomm's (QCOM) stumbles with Samsung, credibility once lost, is difficult to recover, as DIGITIMES reported:
After suffering poor production yields for its 5nm chips, Samsung has continued to lose orders for 4nm chips due to the same problem. Nvidia, for instance, has returned to TSMC for fabricating its latest RTX 40 series GPUs, and Qualcomm has also decided to contract TSMC to manufacture its newest flagship mobile AP, Snapdragon 8 Gen 2. - DIGITIMES
INTC: Valuations Are Likely Not Aggressive
But, has the market priced in these significant headwinds into INTC at the current levels?
With an NTM EBITDA multiple of 6.9x, it's in line with its 10Y average of 6.8x. However, investors need to note that the Street has already slashed its forward earnings projections, leading to the surge in its valuation multiples.
Hence, unless the company expects to lower its forward earnings estimates further, we believe significant pessimism has been reflected.
Takeaway
Therefore, the market should be focusing on Intel's execution through the cycle, with IFS' ability to win more customers likely critical to a material re-rating.
Otherwise, investors should be ready for a long slog as INTC continues its consolidation.
With INTC down nearly 15% from its November highs, we assess it looks attractive again, even though investors should expect near-term volatility.
Maintain Buy.
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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMD, NVDA, QCOM either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Comments (71)
At the end of the day, you've got to buy when it turns your stomach.
Disc; long INTC
Apple being about the only exception. Look at IBM, HP, Dell, etc. All struggling.They survive on legacy business, patents, and buying small tech competitors. BUT, they cannot hold the top tech talent. Who wants to work at stoggy Intel when hot startups doing cool work abound? H1B workers split as soon as their indenture ends. Execs enrich themselves, pay dividends to keep BoD happy, but do not do what tech is suppose to do, grow.Not just Intel, but an industry reality. A few big tech companies can hang on for a long time, but never again will attain their peak. Cisco for one. Intel is not an Apple. They are likely not a Cisco. More like an IBM.
With that said, I believe there may be other reasons why Intel is not a great bet, chief among them its CEO Pat Gelsinger.
Intel's glory days are surely over but it is far from dead and if Gelsinger is replaced with a focused CEO, it may still be a very good long-term investment. Maybe. | NVDA |
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Companies that utilize artificial intelligence can dominate the business world and achieve long-lasting success. These three AI stocks are great buys right now.
Companies that utilize artificial intelligence can dominate the business world and achieve long-lasting success. These three AI stocks are great buys right now.
Mark Spitznagel and Nassim Taleb have been watching for black swans for decades. "We’ve never seen anything like this level of total debt and leverage in the system," he tells Fortune. "It's an experiment."
Warren Buffett is undeniably the most famous and influential investor in modern history, based on his extraordinary performance record. Not surprisingly, the investment portfolio of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A), the holding company employing the Oracle of Omaha as chairman and CEO, receives wide media attention and scrutiny, even though Buffett is no longer making every investment decision. Despite his unparalleled success, Buffett's investment model has long been transparent, straightforward, and consistent.
Stocks have blown past expectations for 2023 – but some analysts are bracing for a sell-off as the market approaches record highs.
The JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF’s (NYSEARCA:JEPI) combination of high yield and monthly payments has quickly made it one of the market’s most popular ETFs. Investors who like JEPI’s style now have another high-yield competitor to consider — the NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF (BATS:SPYI), which also pays on a monthly basis and yields 10.7%. Let’s take a closer look at this intriguing new option for high-yield investors. What is SPYI ETF’s Strategy? Launched in August of 2022, SPYI is still a
Just because you retire doesn't mean you have to stop working. And when work is an option rather than a requirement, it's possible to select a low-stress job that multiplies fulfillment without adding anxiety - but still provides a bit … Continue reading → The post 12 Low-Stress Jobs You Can Do in Retirement appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.
Berkshire Hathaway historically reports its quarterly financial results on weekends, and CEO Warren Buffet has a simple reason why. Berkshire (ticker: BRK.A, BRK.B) reported second-quarter earnings Saturday morning. Many other public companies, however, release their earnings results during the trading week, either before the market opens or after the closing bell.
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Dubbed the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett is renowned for his simple and frugal lifestyle. Despite being the sixth richest person globally, with a net worth estimated at $117.9 billion, Buffett continues to live in the same modest home in Omaha that he purchased in 1958 for just $31,500. Adjusted for inflation, that amount today would be approximately $328,990.80, a mere 0.000279% of his total net worth. Buffett has consistently ranked the purchase of his home as the third-best investment he ha
As a pandemic-inspired boom ends, entrepreneurs and giant corporations alike are counting on customers to keep accumulating more stuff than they can squeeze into their homes. | NVDA |
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The once white-hot investing guru has cooled off considerably, but some of her picks are ready to fire up again.
The once white-hot investing guru has cooled off considerably, but some of her picks are ready to fire up again.
Mark Spitznagel and Nassim Taleb have been watching for black swans for decades. "We’ve never seen anything like this level of total debt and leverage in the system," he tells Fortune. "It's an experiment."
Warren Buffett is undeniably the most famous and influential investor in modern history, based on his extraordinary performance record. Not surprisingly, the investment portfolio of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A), the holding company employing the Oracle of Omaha as chairman and CEO, receives wide media attention and scrutiny, even though Buffett is no longer making every investment decision. Despite his unparalleled success, Buffett's investment model has long been transparent, straightforward, and consistent.
Stocks have blown past expectations for 2023 – but some analysts are bracing for a sell-off as the market approaches record highs.
The JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF’s (NYSEARCA:JEPI) combination of high yield and monthly payments has quickly made it one of the market’s most popular ETFs. Investors who like JEPI’s style now have another high-yield competitor to consider — the NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF (BATS:SPYI), which also pays on a monthly basis and yields 10.7%. Let’s take a closer look at this intriguing new option for high-yield investors. What is SPYI ETF’s Strategy? Launched in August of 2022, SPYI is still a
Just because you retire doesn't mean you have to stop working. And when work is an option rather than a requirement, it's possible to select a low-stress job that multiplies fulfillment without adding anxiety - but still provides a bit … Continue reading → The post 12 Low-Stress Jobs You Can Do in Retirement appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.
Berkshire Hathaway historically reports its quarterly financial results on weekends, and CEO Warren Buffet has a simple reason why. Berkshire (ticker: BRK.A, BRK.B) reported second-quarter earnings Saturday morning. Many other public companies, however, release their earnings results during the trading week, either before the market opens or after the closing bell.
The market rally is at an infection point after notable losses. Here's what to do. Warren Buffett's Berkshire earnings rose.
Is there a point at which I should stop reinvesting stock dividends and invest the money or save the cash? -Anonymous Many financial experts recommend that you reinvest dividends most of the time – and I'm inclined to agree. The … Continue reading → The post Ask an Advisor: Should I Stop Reinvesting Dividends? appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.
There are many different approaches and strategies for retirement investing that might appeal to you. But how do you tell if a certain strategy works for your situation? When evaluating different approaches, consider how each strategy is put together and … Continue reading → The post Here's How Much to Keep in Stocks, Bonds and Cash in Retirement appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.
The week ahead will feature a crucial inflation report and earnings out of Disney, UPS, and Alibaba as second quarter earnings season winds down.
(Bloomberg) -- Dan Loeb is hardly the first Wall Street titan to lament how meme stock traders have made short selling a perilous endeavor. But that Loeb, who runs the hedge fund Third Point LLC, did so now is what’s interesting.Most Read from BloombergTexas Power Prices to Surge 800% on Sunday Amid Searing HeatNetanyahu Seeks to Change How Judges Are Named, Then Stop RevampChina Embassy Rips ‘Brutal’ Russia Border Incident in Rare MoveThe Most Dangerous Job for Lawyers Is Being on Trump’s Legal
AustralianSuper, one of the world’s largest pensions, halved its Apple stock investment and sold Microsoft stock, while buying shares of Tesla and Nvidia.
One in 6 asset and wealth management companies will be bought or shut down in the next five years, according to a PwC survey of asset managers and institutional investors.
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway operating profit rose by 10%. BRKB stock is just out of buy range.
Travel scams are on the rise. Don't be a victim.
VZ stock provides a dividend but a buyback has been shelved amid 5G wireless investments. When will revenue growth reaccelerate?
Will generative artificial intelligence boost Palantir stock in the commercial market amid slowing revenue growth for the company?
Retirement account withdrawals not only help you cover basic living expenses, but they also can fund the lifestyle you've always envisioned in your golden years. That money, however, can have unintended tax consequences. Required minimum distributions (RMDs) and other withdrawals … Continue reading → The post Social Security Taxes Can Hit You Hard in Retirement. Here's How to Lower Them appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.
Dubbed the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett is renowned for his simple and frugal lifestyle. Despite being the sixth richest person globally, with a net worth estimated at $117.9 billion, Buffett continues to live in the same modest home in Omaha that he purchased in 1958 for just $31,500. Adjusted for inflation, that amount today would be approximately $328,990.80, a mere 0.000279% of his total net worth. Buffett has consistently ranked the purchase of his home as the third-best investment he ha
As a pandemic-inspired boom ends, entrepreneurs and giant corporations alike are counting on customers to keep accumulating more stuff than they can squeeze into their homes. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=9f114a0e60dc2680d8e54edd964579b17440410cca3702d3b6b43b7c7075f72c | AMD Thinks It Can Seriously Challenge Intel and Nvidia in 2023 | These two semiconductor investors are back to discuss key points from a recent Advanced Micro Devices tech conference. | 2022-12-18T04:00:00 | Yahoo | AMD Thinks It Can Seriously Challenge Intel and Nvidia in 2023
These two semiconductor investors are back to discuss key points from a recent Advanced Micro Devices tech conference.
These two semiconductor investors are back to discuss key points from a recent Advanced Micro Devices tech conference.
Mark Spitznagel and Nassim Taleb have been watching for black swans for decades. "We’ve never seen anything like this level of total debt and leverage in the system," he tells Fortune. "It's an experiment."
Warren Buffett is undeniably the most famous and influential investor in modern history, based on his extraordinary performance record. Not surprisingly, the investment portfolio of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A), the holding company employing the Oracle of Omaha as chairman and CEO, receives wide media attention and scrutiny, even though Buffett is no longer making every investment decision. Despite his unparalleled success, Buffett's investment model has long been transparent, straightforward, and consistent.
Stocks have blown past expectations for 2023 – but some analysts are bracing for a sell-off as the market approaches record highs.
The JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF’s (NYSEARCA:JEPI) combination of high yield and monthly payments has quickly made it one of the market’s most popular ETFs. Investors who like JEPI’s style now have another high-yield competitor to consider — the NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF (BATS:SPYI), which also pays on a monthly basis and yields 10.7%. Let’s take a closer look at this intriguing new option for high-yield investors. What is SPYI ETF’s Strategy? Launched in August of 2022, SPYI is still a
Just because you retire doesn't mean you have to stop working. And when work is an option rather than a requirement, it's possible to select a low-stress job that multiplies fulfillment without adding anxiety - but still provides a bit … Continue reading → The post 12 Low-Stress Jobs You Can Do in Retirement appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.
Berkshire Hathaway historically reports its quarterly financial results on weekends, and CEO Warren Buffet has a simple reason why. Berkshire (ticker: BRK.A, BRK.B) reported second-quarter earnings Saturday morning. Many other public companies, however, release their earnings results during the trading week, either before the market opens or after the closing bell.
The market rally is at an infection point after notable losses. Here's what to do. Warren Buffett's Berkshire earnings rose.
Is there a point at which I should stop reinvesting stock dividends and invest the money or save the cash? -Anonymous Many financial experts recommend that you reinvest dividends most of the time – and I'm inclined to agree. The … Continue reading → The post Ask an Advisor: Should I Stop Reinvesting Dividends? appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.
There are many different approaches and strategies for retirement investing that might appeal to you. But how do you tell if a certain strategy works for your situation? When evaluating different approaches, consider how each strategy is put together and … Continue reading → The post Here's How Much to Keep in Stocks, Bonds and Cash in Retirement appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.
The week ahead will feature a crucial inflation report and earnings out of Disney, UPS, and Alibaba as second quarter earnings season winds down.
(Bloomberg) -- Dan Loeb is hardly the first Wall Street titan to lament how meme stock traders have made short selling a perilous endeavor. But that Loeb, who runs the hedge fund Third Point LLC, did so now is what’s interesting.Most Read from BloombergTexas Power Prices to Surge 800% on Sunday Amid Searing HeatNetanyahu Seeks to Change How Judges Are Named, Then Stop RevampChina Embassy Rips ‘Brutal’ Russia Border Incident in Rare MoveThe Most Dangerous Job for Lawyers Is Being on Trump’s Legal
AustralianSuper, one of the world’s largest pensions, halved its Apple stock investment and sold Microsoft stock, while buying shares of Tesla and Nvidia.
One in 6 asset and wealth management companies will be bought or shut down in the next five years, according to a PwC survey of asset managers and institutional investors.
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway operating profit rose by 10%. BRKB stock is just out of buy range.
Travel scams are on the rise. Don't be a victim.
VZ stock provides a dividend but a buyback has been shelved amid 5G wireless investments. When will revenue growth reaccelerate?
Will generative artificial intelligence boost Palantir stock in the commercial market amid slowing revenue growth for the company?
Retirement account withdrawals not only help you cover basic living expenses, but they also can fund the lifestyle you've always envisioned in your golden years. That money, however, can have unintended tax consequences. Required minimum distributions (RMDs) and other withdrawals … Continue reading → The post Social Security Taxes Can Hit You Hard in Retirement. Here's How to Lower Them appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.
Dubbed the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett is renowned for his simple and frugal lifestyle. Despite being the sixth richest person globally, with a net worth estimated at $117.9 billion, Buffett continues to live in the same modest home in Omaha that he purchased in 1958 for just $31,500. Adjusted for inflation, that amount today would be approximately $328,990.80, a mere 0.000279% of his total net worth. Buffett has consistently ranked the purchase of his home as the third-best investment he ha
As a pandemic-inspired boom ends, entrepreneurs and giant corporations alike are counting on customers to keep accumulating more stuff than they can squeeze into their homes. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=81f3f4d53f5894f98452548dfd1b4c857f5f06b6a61f3e0ff3db3ad0a70f4311 | 2 Monster Metaverse Stocks to Buy for the Long Haul | These two big-tech stocks are well positioned for the metaverse, and I'm not talking about Meta Platforms. | 2022-12-18T03:10:00 | Yahoo | 2 Monster Metaverse Stocks to Buy for the Long Haul
These two big-tech stocks are well positioned for the metaverse, and I'm not talking about Meta Platforms.
These two big-tech stocks are well positioned for the metaverse, and I'm not talking about Meta Platforms.
Mark Spitznagel and Nassim Taleb have been watching for black swans for decades. "We’ve never seen anything like this level of total debt and leverage in the system," he tells Fortune. "It's an experiment."
Warren Buffett is undeniably the most famous and influential investor in modern history, based on his extraordinary performance record. Not surprisingly, the investment portfolio of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A), the holding company employing the Oracle of Omaha as chairman and CEO, receives wide media attention and scrutiny, even though Buffett is no longer making every investment decision. Despite his unparalleled success, Buffett's investment model has long been transparent, straightforward, and consistent.
Stocks have blown past expectations for 2023 – but some analysts are bracing for a sell-off as the market approaches record highs.
The JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF’s (NYSEARCA:JEPI) combination of high yield and monthly payments has quickly made it one of the market’s most popular ETFs. Investors who like JEPI’s style now have another high-yield competitor to consider — the NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF (BATS:SPYI), which also pays on a monthly basis and yields 10.7%. Let’s take a closer look at this intriguing new option for high-yield investors. What is SPYI ETF’s Strategy? Launched in August of 2022, SPYI is still a
Just because you retire doesn't mean you have to stop working. And when work is an option rather than a requirement, it's possible to select a low-stress job that multiplies fulfillment without adding anxiety - but still provides a bit … Continue reading → The post 12 Low-Stress Jobs You Can Do in Retirement appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.
Berkshire Hathaway historically reports its quarterly financial results on weekends, and CEO Warren Buffet has a simple reason why. Berkshire (ticker: BRK.A, BRK.B) reported second-quarter earnings Saturday morning. Many other public companies, however, release their earnings results during the trading week, either before the market opens or after the closing bell.
The market rally is at an infection point after notable losses. Here's what to do. Warren Buffett's Berkshire earnings rose.
Is there a point at which I should stop reinvesting stock dividends and invest the money or save the cash? -Anonymous Many financial experts recommend that you reinvest dividends most of the time – and I'm inclined to agree. The … Continue reading → The post Ask an Advisor: Should I Stop Reinvesting Dividends? appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.
There are many different approaches and strategies for retirement investing that might appeal to you. But how do you tell if a certain strategy works for your situation? When evaluating different approaches, consider how each strategy is put together and … Continue reading → The post Here's How Much to Keep in Stocks, Bonds and Cash in Retirement appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.
The week ahead will feature a crucial inflation report and earnings out of Disney, UPS, and Alibaba as second quarter earnings season winds down.
(Bloomberg) -- Dan Loeb is hardly the first Wall Street titan to lament how meme stock traders have made short selling a perilous endeavor. But that Loeb, who runs the hedge fund Third Point LLC, did so now is what’s interesting.Most Read from BloombergTexas Power Prices to Surge 800% on Sunday Amid Searing HeatNetanyahu Seeks to Change How Judges Are Named, Then Stop RevampChina Embassy Rips ‘Brutal’ Russia Border Incident in Rare MoveThe Most Dangerous Job for Lawyers Is Being on Trump’s Legal
AustralianSuper, one of the world’s largest pensions, halved its Apple stock investment and sold Microsoft stock, while buying shares of Tesla and Nvidia.
One in 6 asset and wealth management companies will be bought or shut down in the next five years, according to a PwC survey of asset managers and institutional investors.
Travel scams are on the rise. Don't be a victim.
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway operating profit rose by 10%. BRKB stock is just out of buy range.
VZ stock provides a dividend but a buyback has been shelved amid 5G wireless investments. When will revenue growth reaccelerate?
Will generative artificial intelligence boost Palantir stock in the commercial market amid slowing revenue growth for the company?
Retirement account withdrawals not only help you cover basic living expenses, but they also can fund the lifestyle you've always envisioned in your golden years. That money, however, can have unintended tax consequences. Required minimum distributions (RMDs) and other withdrawals … Continue reading → The post Social Security Taxes Can Hit You Hard in Retirement. Here's How to Lower Them appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.
Dubbed the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett is renowned for his simple and frugal lifestyle. Despite being the sixth richest person globally, with a net worth estimated at $117.9 billion, Buffett continues to live in the same modest home in Omaha that he purchased in 1958 for just $31,500. Adjusted for inflation, that amount today would be approximately $328,990.80, a mere 0.000279% of his total net worth. Buffett has consistently ranked the purchase of his home as the third-best investment he ha
As a pandemic-inspired boom ends, entrepreneurs and giant corporations alike are counting on customers to keep accumulating more stuff than they can squeeze into their homes. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=61a4d72dd89bc2a79dc929d4df4438056e9e1a89f68453c24ad807d105af6c4c | Cheap Stocks To Buy Now? 2 Tech Stocks To Know | Are these tech stocks a good buy at their current price levels? | 2022-12-17T09:03:08 | StockMarket | Tech stocks are shares of publicly traded companies that are involved in the technology industry. This industry includes a wide range of companies that develop and sell products and services related to computers, software, the internet, and other technological innovations. Some well-known tech companies include Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL).
Tech stocks tend to be more volatile than stocks in other industries. This is because the technology industry is often subject to rapid change and innovation. This can lead to both higher potential returns and higher risks for investors. It is important for investors to thoroughly research and understand the companies and technologies they are considering investing in before making any investment decisions.
In general, tech stocks have performed well over the past several decades, as the technology industry has experienced strong growth and innovation. However, like all stocks, tech stocks are subject to market fluctuations and can fluctuate in value. It is important for investors to diversify their portfolios and carefully consider their investment objectives and risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. With this in mind, here are two tech stocks to watch in the stock market today.
Tech Stocks To Watch Right Now
- NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA)
- Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT)
Nvidia (NVDA Stock)
First up, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is a technology company. The company designs and manufactures graphics processing units (GPUs) and other technology products. The company’s products are used in a variety of industries, including gaming, professional visualization, data centers, and autonomous vehicles.
NVDA Recent Stock News
Last month, Nvidia announced its third-quarter 2023 financial results. In detail, the company reported earnings of $0.57 per share, along with revenue of $5.9 billion. This is versus the Street’s consensus estimates for Q3 2023 were earnings of $0.67 per share, and revenue estimates of $5.8 billion.
What’s more, the company also said it now estimates 4th Quarter 2023 revenue in the range of $5.88 billion to $6.12 billion. Jensen Huang, founder, and CEO of NVIDIA comments, “We are quickly adapting to the macro environment, correcting inventory levels, and paving the way for new products.“
NVDA Stock Chart
In 2022 so far, shares of NVDA stock have fallen by 44.99% year-to-date. However, Nvidia stock has recovered 5.70% in the last month of trading. Meanwhile as of Friday’s closing bell, NVDA stock is trading at $165.71 a share.
[Read More] Recession-Proof Stocks To Invest In Now? 3 To Watch
Applied Materials (AMAT Stock)
Next, Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) designs and manufactures equipment, services, and software used to produce advanced semiconductor chips and other high-tech products. The company’s products are used in a wide range of industries, including electronics, energy, healthcare, and transportation.
AMAT Recent Stock News
This week, Applied Materials reported that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.26 per share on common stock. Additionally, the dividend is payable on March 16, 2023, to shareholders of record on the close of business on February 23, 2023. Furthermore, in FY 2022, the company returned $6.98 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.
AMAT Stock Chart
Moving along, year-to-date shares of AMAT stock have fallen by 34.52%. Though, over the last six months of trading, Applied Materials stock has rebounded by 16.59%. As of Friday’s closing bell, AMAT stock is trading at $104.54 a share.
If you enjoyed this article and you’re interested in learning how to trade so you can have the best chance to profit consistently then you need to checkout this YouTube channel. CLICK HERE RIGHT NOW!! | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=8b0aa4d55dded25a8a7fb066abcc74ca575a88614146f8dbcecccce136c3b642 | 3 Stocks to Invest in Virtual Reality | At a time when investors are pretty skeptical of tech stocks, now might seem like an odd time to jump into virtual reality (VR). Here's why Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL), and Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) have great VR potential. The iPhone maker has long been rumored to be working on a mixed-reality headset (some VR and AR capabilities) that could debut as soon as next year. | 2022-12-17T03:40:00 | Yahoo | 3 Stocks to Invest in Virtual Reality
At a time when investors are pretty skeptical of tech stocks, now might seem like an odd time to jump into virtual reality (VR). Here's why Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL), and Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) have great VR potential. The iPhone maker has long been rumored to be working on a mixed-reality headset (some VR and AR capabilities) that could debut as soon as next year. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=07e0b7a58df7269fd417d097ab787ee81e573647c30960e8a1808fad80e6fbdf | Down 45%, This Trailblazing Semiconductor Stock Is a Must-Buy Before 2023 | Nvidia recently reported disappointing third-quarter financial results, but the chipmaker's future is still brimming with potential. | 2022-12-17T02:09:00 | Yahoo | Down 45%, This Trailblazing Semiconductor Stock Is a Must-Buy Before 2023
Nvidia recently reported disappointing third-quarter financial results, but the chipmaker's future is still brimming with potential.
Nvidia recently reported disappointing third-quarter financial results, but the chipmaker's future is still brimming with potential.
Mark Spitznagel and Nassim Taleb have been watching for black swans for decades. "We’ve never seen anything like this level of total debt and leverage in the system," he tells Fortune. "It's an experiment."
Warren Buffett is undeniably the most famous and influential investor in modern history, based on his extraordinary performance record. Not surprisingly, the investment portfolio of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A), the holding company employing the Oracle of Omaha as chairman and CEO, receives wide media attention and scrutiny, even though Buffett is no longer making every investment decision. Despite his unparalleled success, Buffett's investment model has long been transparent, straightforward, and consistent.
Stocks have blown past expectations for 2023 – but some analysts are bracing for a sell-off as the market approaches record highs.
The JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF’s (NYSEARCA:JEPI) combination of high yield and monthly payments has quickly made it one of the market’s most popular ETFs. Investors who like JEPI’s style now have another high-yield competitor to consider — the NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF (BATS:SPYI), which also pays on a monthly basis and yields 10.7%. Let’s take a closer look at this intriguing new option for high-yield investors. What is SPYI ETF’s Strategy? Launched in August of 2022, SPYI is still a
Just because you retire doesn't mean you have to stop working. And when work is an option rather than a requirement, it's possible to select a low-stress job that multiplies fulfillment without adding anxiety - but still provides a bit … Continue reading → The post 12 Low-Stress Jobs You Can Do in Retirement appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.
Berkshire Hathaway historically reports its quarterly financial results on weekends, and CEO Warren Buffet has a simple reason why. Berkshire (ticker: BRK.A, BRK.B) reported second-quarter earnings Saturday morning. Many other public companies, however, release their earnings results during the trading week, either before the market opens or after the closing bell.
The market rally is at an infection point after notable losses. Here's what to do. Warren Buffett's Berkshire earnings rose.
Is there a point at which I should stop reinvesting stock dividends and invest the money or save the cash? -Anonymous Many financial experts recommend that you reinvest dividends most of the time – and I'm inclined to agree. The … Continue reading → The post Ask an Advisor: Should I Stop Reinvesting Dividends? appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.
There are many different approaches and strategies for retirement investing that might appeal to you. But how do you tell if a certain strategy works for your situation? When evaluating different approaches, consider how each strategy is put together and … Continue reading → The post Here's How Much to Keep in Stocks, Bonds and Cash in Retirement appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.
The week ahead will feature a crucial inflation report and earnings out of Disney, UPS, and Alibaba as second quarter earnings season winds down.
(Bloomberg) -- Dan Loeb is hardly the first Wall Street titan to lament how meme stock traders have made short selling a perilous endeavor. But that Loeb, who runs the hedge fund Third Point LLC, did so now is what’s interesting.Most Read from BloombergTexas Power Prices to Surge 800% on Sunday Amid Searing HeatNetanyahu Seeks to Change How Judges Are Named, Then Stop RevampChina Embassy Rips ‘Brutal’ Russia Border Incident in Rare MoveThe Most Dangerous Job for Lawyers Is Being on Trump’s Legal
AustralianSuper, one of the world’s largest pensions, halved its Apple stock investment and sold Microsoft stock, while buying shares of Tesla and Nvidia.
One in 6 asset and wealth management companies will be bought or shut down in the next five years, according to a PwC survey of asset managers and institutional investors.
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway operating profit rose by 10%. BRKB stock is just out of buy range.
Travel scams are on the rise. Don't be a victim.
VZ stock provides a dividend but a buyback has been shelved amid 5G wireless investments. When will revenue growth reaccelerate?
Will generative artificial intelligence boost Palantir stock in the commercial market amid slowing revenue growth for the company?
Retirement account withdrawals not only help you cover basic living expenses, but they also can fund the lifestyle you've always envisioned in your golden years. That money, however, can have unintended tax consequences. Required minimum distributions (RMDs) and other withdrawals … Continue reading → The post Social Security Taxes Can Hit You Hard in Retirement. Here's How to Lower Them appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.
Dubbed the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett is renowned for his simple and frugal lifestyle. Despite being the sixth richest person globally, with a net worth estimated at $117.9 billion, Buffett continues to live in the same modest home in Omaha that he purchased in 1958 for just $31,500. Adjusted for inflation, that amount today would be approximately $328,990.80, a mere 0.000279% of his total net worth. Buffett has consistently ranked the purchase of his home as the third-best investment he ha
As a pandemic-inspired boom ends, entrepreneurs and giant corporations alike are counting on customers to keep accumulating more stuff than they can squeeze into their homes. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=4f628225c64f8c138be7f83018e68c313aee27a84fa4bd63f61c9d9d08ddbdd8 | Stock Market Rally Suffers Ugly Outside Week; Here's What To Do Now | The market rally started strong, but sold off hard in a big outside week. Apple, Tesla dived. Leading stocks tumbled. Here's what to do. | 2022-12-16T15:01:21 | Yahoo | Investopedia
Warren Buffett is undeniably the most famous and influential investor in modern history, based on his extraordinary performance record. Not surprisingly, the investment portfolio of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A), the holding company employing the Oracle of Omaha as chairman and CEO, receives wide media attention and scrutiny, even though Buffett is no longer making every investment decision. Despite his unparalleled success, Buffett's investment model has long been transparent, straightforward, and consistent. | NVDA |
https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=ffa8e7733e5d8ac395a7bc7c27c468202458b6cf41a679a297653e89df8f25eb | Can Tech Recover? With Alex King From Cestrian Capital Research | In this episode, we're joined by Alex King from Cestrian Capital Research, and we discuss specific tech investment names and if they are recommending them. | 2022-12-16T13:05:00 | SeekingAlpha | Can Tech Recover? With Alex King From Cestrian Capital Research
Summary
- Stock Market Live has been renamed to Investing Experts Podcast.
- In this episode, we catch up with Alex King, founder of Cestrian Capital Research, and who also runs Growth Investor Pro service on Seeking Alpha.
- We discuss Salesforce, semi-conductors and more.
Editor's Note: This is a transcript excerpt of the full show we record on Wednesday with a live audience. Please note that due to time and audio constraints, transcription may not be perfect.
We encourage you to listen to the show above or subscribe to listen on the go via Apple Podcasts.
Check out more of Alex King's research in Growth Investor Pro.
Grab your free 14-day trial of Austin's service Cash Flow Freaks now.
Daniel Snyder: So, you guys may know Alex. Some of you might not know Alex. Alex, welcome to the show. Wait one second, just want to make sure you’re unmute. So, for everybody that doesn't know, Alex, runs Growth Investor Pro. Over here he’s at Seeking Alpha marketplace service. You focus on growth at a reasonable price, right, or profitability?
Alex King: We focus on a lot of things. We call it Growth Investor Pro because that's where we started. But actually, in the service, you've got growth stocks, value stocks, ETFs, long-term trading, short-term trading, options, rates, dollar. But the catchy part is the growth part. And it's also the part that's been most interesting to do this year because obviously growth all over. It's all going to zero. It's never going to go back ever again ever. Everyone hates growth. No one's interested. You can't make any money in it. And so, actually, that's been the most fun part to focus on all [indiscernible].
Daniel Snyder: I love that you said that.
Alex King: My professional background before I took this was in institution vesting, all in tech, VC and the leverage buyouts, all of which are growth companies one way or another.
Daniel Snyder: Yeah. The guys, I can't communicate this enough. I mean, you're a legend in this space. So, I'm thankful that you’re here with us and joining us from across the pond. So, I think the best place to start is let's get your reaction to what's going on with inflation in the Fed right now? And I'll let you – I’ll just leave it broad. Let you take it where you think we should go.
Alex King: Yeah. I mean, I'm not sure I've got any unique insights on that. I mean, if you read all that Chicago school stuff, from a hundred years ago, you know, it proved to be correct, which is if you increase the money supply, inflation goes up and if you decrease the money supply, inflation goes down and it's that simple. And I think as is now well known and understood, yeah, the money supplier is increased massively during COVID, probably too much.
I think it's hard to argue it shouldn't have been increased at all because people forget, you know, in February, March 2020, it looked like the economy might stop, and it looked like an echo of 2008 when it looked like the economy might stop because of credit issues. So, the risk, the COVID crisis wasn't really an equity crisis. It was a cash flow crisis. If landlords weren't getting paid, suppliers weren't getting paid, if cash doesn't flow, the economy stops. I think most people would say it was right for the Federal Reserve to step in and free up that liquidity.
Think now most people would say it's overdone. You know, you wouldn't -- I don't think the Fed ever intended for, you know household savings to be an all-time high by the end of 2020 or 2021 whatever it was. So too much money came into the economy, and so low and behold, inflation out. As everyone, I think, would agree now they reacted too slowly. It wasn't just them. Most central banks across the world were the same.
And now they've had to slam the brakes on too hard. And so, it's crazy volatility in every market you can think of. You know, and what's been particularly nuts this year, I think is that, anything in late 21’, I think it was fairly obvious that the market was going to correct. If you looked at the NASDAQ or the SPY or whatever, it was going to correct. We said that so in our service loud and clear. November 21st, I think we said this is probably a talk, you know, watch out.
But I think what wasn't obvious was everything was done. Right? So normally you go, well, maybe I'll rotate out of growth and into value or buy some credit or I'll buy some commodities or whatever. The only thing, the only sectors that made money all year consistently is energy. That's it. Everything else lost money. That's incredible. So, yeah, it's been crazy. I think what -- where we are now, again, most people would agree is, they've raised rates too fast. CPI, PC, every measure is coming down. I don't see any recession anytime soon.
Personally, I’d like anyone to show me any actual data that says there is going to be a recession. Because the jobs market says there isn't. GDP says there isn't. It's just headlines that says there is. So personally think that we are done with the hiking cycle. House view here is, yeah, we might get a little bit of weakness in the next couple of days in the market, but probably that October, November low was live. And probably, security just repriced now off of a higher rate and inflation rate environment. That's it?
Daniel Snyder: Alex, I like where your heads at. I was kind of curious if you had any thoughts at, you know, what you said about recession. You’re like, there is no recession. I don't see anything that says recession. Then why do we see people like Kathy would come out and be like, I think we're in a recession right now. Like is -- is that her talking her book in your opinion?
Alex King: Well, I don't like this, you know, let's all pile on Kathy Wood thing, but point to a thing she last said that was correct. Right?
Daniel Snyder: I knowwhat.
Alex King: There is no recession. You know, if you look at – okay, jobs market, look at GDP, where's the recession? The point you just made about silver and gold earlier, you know, I’m sort of remised, which is, well, that's because there isn't a recession. So, I mean, obviously, tomorrow, right? GDP will collapse and the jobs market will go to hell and rest of it. But right now, there is no recession. So, it's just fame hungry, frankly.
And people obviously get scared very easily. If you've been investing this year or trading this year, it's hard you know, to contain the worry. You’ve got to work really hard at that. But people thought it run too deep and now people will be surprised, I think, when the upside comes and no one believe the upside. If you remember the rally coming out of the COVID lows, people shorted that rally all the way from March 2020 up to the end of the year because no one believed it was real. But it was real.
And you knew it was real because it was happening. You know, the evidence was, it was happening. And so, I think when the upside comes now, that's, you know, this week or next year, nobody will believe it. And people won't make the money that's available because they'll be too busy trying to convince themselves that, you know, this is a fake out and it's going to collapse and go to zero and blah. So, in the same way that everyone – yeah, just normal psychology. Right? Everyone got too carried away on the upside in 2020, and particularly ‘21, and now everyone is too carried around the downside, just normal.
Daniel Snyder: And we know that the correlation between stocks and bonds is pretty much -- they're extremely correlated right now. More than they have been over the last decade.
Alex King: Right.
Daniel Snyder: And Christian here in the chats also bringing up the point about, you know, the inversion of the yield curves across the border. So, it sounds like we're just flatting out saying, you know, the bond market's wrong in this case. And could that be the fuel that we could see into this valid – this next leg that no one actually is expecting?
Alex King: Well, I think they are indicators of what may happen in the future, but it's not a guarantee. So, you'll know when we're in a recession because we'll be involved, but we're not in right now. And so, you know, investing been invested. We can all come up with a range of indicators that tell us exactly what's going to happen tomorrow, except they don't. And so, all you ever kind of have is look at the actual data, the real time data in front of you, and then work out whether the indicators she was using were any good.
And so right now, again, we could change tomorrow, but right now, where is the recession? I think one argument says, well, there's all these layoffs, that means less consumer spending, that means recession. I think that's probably a good argument. And if you look at why the layoffs are happening, my own view is, all companies are perennially overstaffed always, and you can always take a lot of cost out of any business with no harm to the top line, always.
Always. It's just a people don't mind to do it for obvious reasons. And right now, you have air cover. You know, if you're a CEO of a sort of CFO of a business, you know, you can take 20%, 30% of headcount out of your business tomorrow, and nothing bad will happen. Normally, you know, you get dragged to the edge for doing those things.
Now, you know, everyone's doing it, so why not? But there is I think an argument that says, that if there's enough of that that could -- that could cause a serious slowdown in consumer spending, partly if you've actually lost your job and partly if you're worried about losing your job and the effect that might have on psychology. I mean, that's probably the strongest argument for me.
Austin Hankwitz: So, let's pretend that we are going to be in a recession, right? The NBER has said we're in recessional. It's happening like –
Alex King: Yeah.
Austin Hankwitz: That’s reality. What specifically from your perspective, Alex, would, like, what are – what would those indicators be? What would the data be to say to you that we are in a recession? Right? Because, you know, 15 years, 20 years ago, you'd say two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction was a recession. We saw that sort of to a very small degree recently, but like, that's not a recession. Now it's like, to you like, what would you say is like, okay, these four things are happening? We're in a recession?
Alex King: Well, I'm old. So, I would still look to GDP. I guess you would look at, you know, overall number of payroll account and GDP. So, I appreciate they aren't particularly insightful or technical indicators. Yeah. Clearly. And they're kind of lagging indicators as well. You only find out after the fact. But in the end, those are the indicators is, you know, are people employed? Is consumer spending holding up? You know, consumer savings holding up and is GDP growing. Those are things I would look at.
Now I'm not a macro person, no claim to be, other people on this, you know, watching the show will be much smarter than me on this front, make no claim to expertise on this. All I would say is, right now, I don't see one happening. I don't see one that's actually happening right now. And I don't see why would there be a recession? Right? Just ask yourself that. Why would there be one? Because rates are up? Well, you know, that affects certain things like, am I going to buy a house tomorrow? Okay.
If I buy a house tomorrow, I'm probably going to buy some furniture. So, you can you can construct an argument like that. To me, the thing to look at is, if the layoff thing really gets hot, I could induce a recession. But I don’t see it yet.
Daniel Snyder: Got it.
Austin Hankwitz: Okay.
Daniel Snyder: I'd like to -- I mean, we're kind of seeing the conversation shift now into what earnings will be next year. Yeah. And it's going from the layoffs that you're about it. And it's all great points. I mean, I've thought that as well. I'm like, oh, is this the moment in time where it's just easy for executives on earnings call to just guide lower and do layoffs and just cut the fat, if you will, that they haven't had that opportunity. Right. Without having the market react crazy, and be like, oh, you're cutting jobs, therefore, you're not profitable. Right? We always want to see them higher. That's the positive sentiment.
Moving on to earnings of the overall market going into next year, I mean, we've seen the big firm -- Goldman (GS) came out and said, they're seeing flat growth next year. We've seen a few people say negative. Of course, there's the ones that say positive. Not much though like, do you have any thoughts of what earnings next year might look at for the overall market?
Alex King: Yeah. Overall market, no. But if I -- if I look at, you know, the stuff that we cover, So, if you look at the sectors we cover for single name stocks, we cover tech companies and more of the high growth than the Oracles (ORCL) and IBMs (IBM) and so on. And we cover space and defense. So, you know, if you look at space and defense, defense companies will have higher earnings, you know, those backlogs are rising, and they're rising because of the increasing tensions in the world. Okay.
So that backlog growth is going to flow into revenue growth. It's going to flow into earnings. So, earnings are going to get up over the course of the next two or three years. And if you look in tech, tech earnings are going up. And the reason they're going up is because, you know, in times of free money and I – again I’m old, and I've done this for three decades. Right? So, in times of free money, tech companies on purpose go, we're going to lose money.
We're going to blow money on product development, marketing, and acquisitions. And we're just going to chase the top line of expenses and everything else. And it's rational to do that when money is free. Right? And we're going to run negative cash flows, negative earnings. And then the better ones go, okay, money now costs something. So, I'm going to slow down revenue growth. I’m going to slow down the rate of acquisitions.
But what I'm going to do is become much more efficient. And for the better tech companies, mainly software businesses where you have high gross margins, you have tunable levels of OpEx and CapEx, you can kind of cut your cloth to suit the environment you're in. So, if you look at the two big, big earnings reactions just in the last -- we put a note out on this recently. MongoDB, that's MDB, and DocuSign (DOCU), both had huge earnings reactions on pretty awful quarters.
If you looked on the top line, right, the revenue growth slowed for both. [indiscernible] the revenue growth slowed for both. And their guidance is for growth to slow even further. Now if you put those quarters out in 2020 or 2021, your stock would crater because the market would say, well, what's wrong with you? Why can't you grow faster? Both companies upped their guide a little bit on the earnings front.
So, MongoDB, for instance, said it was going to be EPS positive, not EPS negative. I mean, so what? Right? EPS isn't even the thing. And the stock was up 20%, 30%. DocuSign, similar sort of story, stock up about 20% from memory. And they put in terrible quarters to be clear. And both said that growth would decelerate again next quarter. So, earnings in tech are going to go up.
Revenue growth will probably be – be know probably down a bit on this year I would think, because if you look at these flywheel type business models, the subscription business models, that flywheel is slowing. And so, you can see it in the change in the remaining poor performance obligation. That's the backlog. You can see it in change in deferred revenue. That's the prepaid, but yet to be recognized revenue, they're all slowing.
They're longer-term indicators of what the quarterly revenue growth is going to be. So, growth will slow, but earnings in the better companies will be up. The more mature things, if you know, your Oracles, your IBMs, your AT&Ts (T) who knows, but your growth companies' earnings will be up for sure.
Austin Hankwitz: So, with those growth companies like, what specific line items get you excited? Is it free cash flow? Is it their actual earnings? Is it actual earnings per share? Like, what if you could, like, create a screen of some sort, to look like a screen of a bunch of stocks too that are doing very specific things to help you predict what this might look like. Or help you choose the stocks to even begin doing more research into? Is there maybe like a line item or two? And like what those line items might be moving toward?
Alex King: Yeah. I mean, bear in mind, this is my whole career, so I can bully you for literally days on this. Right? But just to, just to cut the chase. So, if you look at -- the way we do it is, we you know, we cover a lot of stocks, and so we try and get a single lens to which to look at, you know, all the tech stocks through one lens, all the defense stocks through another. And in tech, pretty simple. Revenue growth for the quarter versus the same quarter last year, might give you a snapshot of growth.
Trailing twelve-month revenue growth versus the same period last year. So that's a slower burn measure. Right? It goes up, slower down, slower. But take no notice whatsoever of earnings per share. Who cares? Not even a thing, right? It's just an accounting thing. You can manipulate it, left, right, and center. We don't even measure it. We don't report on it.
What we look at is, in tech companies we look at unlevered pretax free cash flow, which is basically EBITDA minus CapEx minus changing working capital, which is -- if you get paid by your customers faster than you pay your suppliers, you have positive change in working capital. If you get paid slower than you pay out, negative. So, get paid fast, cash goes up relative to earnings. Get paid slow, cash goes down relative to earnings. Simple. And then we look at the net cash or net debt on the balance sheet.
Those are the headline things. The couple of things that we look out that are really informative of the future. Well, in defense you call backlog. In tech people call it, remaining performance obligations. It's a mouthful, but it's starting to appear now in most companies 10-Qs and 10-Ks. You have to, you know, [indiscernible] control F for it. It's on page, you know, 732, but it's really interesting. So, for any company that has revenue visibility as a subscription model, something like that, or in defense where you have multi-year order book.
Look for remaining performance obligation or backlog. RPO measures the total contracts that the company has signed with its customers, total value of those contracts that's yet to be invoiced or paid. Right? And then oh, I'm sorry, the total value of the forward contract book and then a subset of that deferred revenue is the subset that they have invoiced. Now, they may have been paid for it, in which case it will encashed. Or they may have yet to be paid for it, in which case it will be accounts receivable.
But look at RPO, or deferred revenue, and that's a little window into the future. Very simple. If RPO is growing, if it's a big number relative to last twelve months revenue and it's growing faster than TTM revenue, probably growth is going to accelerate. And if it's growing slower than TTM revenue, probably growth is going to decelerate. These aren't linear relationships. They're only directional. It's pretty useful.
And so, we've used it a number of times in the Growth Investor Pro service both on the way up. So, in 2020, [indiscernible] to say this thing's going to accelerate. Look, you can see in the order book, and it did, bigly. And we've seen it in things like Datadog, that’s DDOG and Zscaler (ZS) this year. And we said these things are going to slow. And they did. So, nothing's perfect. It's a pretty good thing to look at. So those are the things. Revenue growth, cash margins, balance sheet, RPO, those are the things.
Austin Hankwitz: Got it. And quickly before Daniel -- I'm sure ask a question, the thing you mentioned too is the net debt. Are you at all like, when you're thinking about investing into or it wasn't just analyzing, right, you know, a tech company. Like, are there specific net debt multiples you try and keep in mind that are like the safe zone? Or are you really looking for no debt? I mean, what's that kind of like, you know, Goldilocks spots?
Alex King: Yeah. So, it depends on, depends on the company. So, if you look at, you know, a mature business, like, you know, an Oracle, let's take as an example. You know, if Oracle is running at, you know, two, three, even four times debt-to-EBITDA, that's fine, right. Most of these interest costs are hedged out and fixed. The cash flow in a business well that's not going to change anytime soon. That’s not going to stress anybody out.
With the growthier companies that either don't generate much cash or they've just started to them you have to look a bit differently and say, well, how much net how much liquid cash is on the balance sheet? Not, you know, marketable securities because you don't know what they are. There might be see bills or there might be shares in the private crypto firm you don't look out. So how much actual cash money is on the balance sheet?
How much do they burn on average each quarter after tax? And so how many quarters runway do have? That's a venture capital toolkit, right? But it's relevant because so many companies went public at such a young age, if you like, in the last five years, that with a lot of them, you have to look at them as venture capital investment. So, is this thing going to need to raise money anytime soon?
And if you have to raise money in this environment right now, that's going to hurt the stock because either you have to raise debt, which will, you know, spook shareholders, we have to raise equity at some even further depressed price. So, I think it depends on the company, mature, low growth, 30%, 40% cash flow margin, software business, big leverage, that's just fine. I mean, don't forget, there's a whole LBO industry that makes a living out of 7x, 8x leverage. So, it's fine. High growth business that doesn't generate much cash. Look how much liquid cash you’ve got versus the quarterly burn.
Austin Hankwitz: I love this guy. You want to come back like every episode? This is so interesting to me.
Alex King: Sure. Yeah, why not. Yeah.
Daniel Snyder: I told you he’s a legend. Alex or maybe Austin, maybe we should kind of pivot it back to Salesforce. Alex, I know you recently…
Austin Hankwitz: Yeah. Yeah.
Daniel Snyder: …put out some article about Salesforce here. I think it was the end of last month. I was looking through. Austin, you had the question about management. Maybe you want to ask it to Alex and get his thoughts?
Austin Hankwitz: Yeah. For sure. So, I had written down -- we've seen a laundry list of executives at Slack step down. Right? Bret Taylor, the co-CEO. Stewart Butterfield, the CEO. Tamar Yehoshua, the Chief Product Officer. Jonathan Prince, SVP of Marketing. And not to mention, you know, that was Slack and at Salesforce, they lost their Chief Strategy Officer and the CEO of Tableau. What might be going on behind the scenes here? Why is this happening?
Alex King: Yeah.
Austin Hankwitz: And what may be a person that has no idea, like myself, I don't own Salesforce. I'm not very keen in the business, but I'm seeing these things and I've seen the headlines. How would you kind of break it down for someone like me?
Alex King: Yeah. So, I think you have to – so first of all, again, I'm old. I remember Salesforce's IPO, back in 2002 or 2003, I forget which. I think you have to separate it into two things. The departure of execs whose companies have been acquired. That's normal. You should expect that. You know, if you're a guy like Stewart Butterfield, I mean, if you're -- if you look at Butterfield's background, really interesting guy. So, he set up two gaming businesses.
You know, Slack was supposed to be a multi-user dungeon for want of a better term. Right? A guy like that is never going to live very long in a corporate structure because he's going to go insane. Right? If you say you have to arrive x time in the morning and leave at y time at night and use, you know, this business card and wear that and all that. You know, these guys last months. Even if they have to surrender their own ass, they just can't bear.
So, for -- you know, Butterfield from Slack, Tableau guys, that I don't think should spook anybody. That's just normal. Right? And they're both – both of those companies have been owned for long enough now by a serial acquirer like Salesforce, and they're very good acquisitions. People don't think they are, but they're very, very good acquisitions. People have even squealed and overpaid and blah, but they always work out really well. They'll have sucked out the DNA out of those businesses by now.
And so that the founders leave, why wouldn’t it stress me at all and also Salesforce yet. And Bret Taylor leaving, this is a sort of periodic spasm that Salesforce goes through, and it's all to do. With the founder, you know, the Founder CEO Benioff's desire for control. So, you know, in 2015, the company came very close to being sold to Microsoft, very close indeed, didn't go through on price ultimately. And so, since then, Benioff has sort of flirted with, could he possibly bear to hand over any kind of control whatsoever to another CEO.
And the answer so far has been, no. So, they've hired at least two co-CEOs to my memory. And then torched them within the space of 12, 18 months, which just kind of makes me laugh, which is who would take the job to be co-CEO with a Founder that's been there, you know, what, 21 – 20 years as a public company and 25 years, if we include his private history. It's just nuts. You're always going to be road killed. And so, I think the, again, just step back, acquired, execs leaving, non-issue, normal, Benioff grasping back control.
So far, when he's done that, it's worked out well. Right? Now everyone has, you know, everybody has their sort of best window of their career and all of us get old and all of us go off the ball as we get older. So, the question is, is Benioff there now. Right? Is he prepared to work hard enough? You know, or does he want to spend more time on Hawaii? Who knows? But that these guys are leaving in and of itself doesn't stress me out. It comes down to, is Benioff basically going stock prices on the floor.
I'm going to award myself a bunch more stock. You know, what is it? $135 or something, $136. And then I'm going to ramp this thing, which is more than capable of doing to have one final [indiscernible] going by myself to another Hawaiian island and then quit. Right? But he won't quit by handing over to a CEO. He'll sell it to some. Right? So that's the question. My own personal view is, I've seen a lot of founders over the years.
And I've seen a lot of founders run public companies like this, and they're usually the ones to back. And Benioff so far, every time he's throwed a co-CEO or senior manager under the bus, it works out well. So, for us this has you know, me as an individual and us as a firm, I'd say benefit of the doubt there. But he is getting on a bit.
So, at some point, that trick is going to not work. For now, you know, we rate the thing up. Accumulate. Right? I own it. I'm happy to own it. It's on the floor right now. It should go up over time. It's the next Oracle. I know it's mature. It's just going to be part of plumbing for the next 20, 30 years, so it'll probably be fine. But he can only do this so many more times.
Daniel Snyder: I love all those thoughts because that's kind of where my head went. I mean, you made up the good -- you brought the good point about, you know, CEOs that are a part of an acquisition. Usually, they have their, what, two to three-year contract where they stay on board and then they're usually pushed out the door.
But you're talking about CEO of Salesforce and it's like the guys, like, I can imagine it's almost like working with, like, Carl Icahn, where the guy is just like, I don't want to go. Like, I'm not going to let go. This is my baby I built it x, y, z. But -- so I was looking at the Seeking Alpha Assemble page. I'll just pull it up for everybody real quick. On Salesforce, our Quant system does have a strong buy. I know you mentioned you have an accumulated as well.
Trying to get your thoughts on it though. I mean, the valuation is a little high, but of course, it's tech. And if you -- as you were talking about, you know PE and earnings per share and how they can be manipulated and stuff, but we were also talking about I mean, this company has already experienced massive growth throughout the years that it's been on the market and all the acquisitions. And I was scrolling down here at the bottom earlier and I was looking at, you know, cash and debt balances and everything else.
And obviously, they have $14 billion in debt. Most of that's probably from the Slack acquisition, I would guess. And do you have any thoughts on how they're, you know, financially running the company right now?
Alex King: Yeah. I mean it’s a cash machine this day. And don't -- get most of their cash is paid upfront on a subscription basis. And so, the cash flow does not stress me out, I'm missing. I don't have the numbers in front of me. If you look at the valuations and multiple of trailing 12-month unlevered free cash flow, it's not scary, and all support. If you look at -- if you look at any conventional debt metrics and that thing, you know, interest cover ratios, anything you care to look at.
There's no -- I don't see any credit risk with that whatsoever, really not. The company again is, has been a really excellent acquirer. So, if you look over the last let me see 10 years, 13 years of Salesforce to stock history it takes a big dive anytime they do a big acquisition. It fell off a cliff with Tableau, MuleSoft, Slack, obviously. And in each time, they paid big for relatively small companies. And what they've done is they bought product innovation.
So MuleSoft gave them in, you know, an integration bus as it used to be called. Slack gave them, obviously, collaboration tools. Tableau analytics. And so rather than develop their own. They've acquired it. And they've paid with, you know, partly stock, partly debt. And every single time that's worked out really well. But no one expect it. There's this sort of general mantra that says, M&A is bad. Well, yeah, it's bad if you're not very good at it.
But it's not bad if you are good at it. If you have a serial process, you can get the integration costs done and you can afford these things. And so, you know – I don’t think there is anything stressful personally about Salesforce now. The big question I will say is, this isn't the question is, you know, can Benioff deliver, you know, another episode of growth himself? Or is this overconfidence in his own judgment? And so based on history, my view is, yeah, he'll do it.
But I’ll have to say last time he did it, my view is, yeah, I'm not stressed at all. Now with two, three years on, I forget how old he is, but he's not young. You know, he doesn't dislike the fire things in life, and he doesn't dislike being on vacation. Right? And so, for all that we've said about recession, doesn't mean it's easy. And you do have to get up for work early in the morning right now if you want to do that. So that that's the risk I would say, not the balance sheet.
Daniel Snyder: Love that you laid that out. One more -- one more thing before we let you go. You've been so generous with your time. And actually, Greg, who does Alex King work for you? He works for himself. Cestrian Capital. Go check out his service on Seeking Alpha Market Place. It's called Growth Investor Pro. Like he says, Alex, you should work for the Fed. That's a great thought.
Alex King: Why would I want to do that?
Daniel Snyder: No one wants to do that, but just throwing that out there. So, Denise had a question here, asking you, any thoughts on Nvidia? And maybe I mean, you're talking about how you love tech. You've always been in growth investing in tech sector specifically. And I think we know, of course, Nvidia (NVDA) is the semiconductor industry, but they had the cores of their chips in the GPU, which is going to be running AI. And all the data centers and everything else. So just kind of wondering, do you have any thoughts that you might want to share with people about Nvidia or AI or tech?
Alex King: Yeah. I mean – yeah, I mean, it does things for machine. Right? No pun intended. And it's going to -- it's just going to keep going. I mean, what's the competition? So, first of all, if you sort of step back, and it's worth saying by the way that, you know, when you when you do tech for a career and I've been in tech, let's say, three decades now, it always does this. It always, you know, gets destroyed every few years and everyone declares it to be over and the oldest you know, going to zero and you know, blah blah blah. This happens all the time.
And so, you know, that that isn't true. Right? It's just very, very, very cyclical. And the up cycles are insane and the down cycles are insane. Right? It just is this volatile. But technology as a whole it's an incredibly young industry. If you compare it to, you know, railroad or, you know, consumer packaged goods or, you know, any industry you can think of. It’s still an incredibly young industry. You know, the first independently sold software as opposed to bundled with, you know, a piece of IBM kit. Probably isn't older than, you know, what, 40-ish years ago.
So, the software industry as an industry is maybe in its fourth or fifth decade. That's an incredibly young industry. And that means that it's just going to keep growing as an industry. And that it's volatile and scary just because they’re youths of the industry. So, if you look at semiconductors, you know, semiconductor -- software for that matter remain rubbish. Right? You know, most people's computer remains rubbish. It can't do things that you wanted to do very easily unless you think like it and, you know, that's pretty limited.
We're all amazed about, you know, Chat-GPT. But if you ask Chat-GPT an actual question, ask it what's the best stock to buy? Well, I’ve tried that. It can't tell you. Right? What it can do is pass together bits of language to make it sound like a person when it's just reassembling words from somebody else's website. It's quite good at that. Right? Ask it. I asked it three days ago whether, you know, the FTX thing was really a fraud or not, and I can't tell the answer. Right?
Technology is really basic and dreadful still. AI is really basic and dreadful still. Computing is really basic and dreadful still. So Nvidia who knows on the cutting edge of what good looks like in compute, but still really basic. Now they have hardly any competition, and that's because Intel (INTC) were too arrogant to spot the opportunity just as they were with mobile originally. AMD sort of caught up a bit by an acquisition.
But Nvidia is way out there in front. AI, you know, everybody thinks that AI has got a long way to run, and it will be the next substantial compute model. And Nvidia is just going to run with that. The stock's, you know, been beaten up. It's been -- it's rebounded really fast. And, yeah, I own the stock. We're ready to accumulate. We think it's got a fantastic future. A fantastic future. So, yeah, very, very bullish on that.
Daniel Snyder: Awesome. Alex, thank you so much for your time. Also…
Alex King: Anytime.
Daniel Snyder: Also, just for the record, I asked Chat-GPT, what's the best Seeking Alpha marketplace service? And I'm sorry, Austin, but it says Cestrian Capital.
Alex King: It’s a big lie.
Daniel Snyder: Because you know, Alex, you are a legend. Thank you so much for all the time.
Alex King: Thanks for having me on. Great show. Thanks a lot, guys.
Daniel Snyder: We really appreciate it. You take care. Alright?
Alex King: Okay. Bye.
Daniel Snyder: Alright. Ah men Austin. Well, I mean, come on. Talk about it.
Austin Hankwitz: We got to get him around like monthly cadence if he's open to it man. This guy is an absolute rock star. I feel like I just learned more from him than I did the four years I spent studying finance in college. Are you kidding me? Jeez.
Daniel Snyder: Absolutely incredible. I mean, Denise over here fabulous. Vida says thanks, Alex. Christian says excellent session. Alex was great. I mean, this is Investing Experts Podcast. I mean, that right there, I think, is like I could have not asked for a better episode to just break down let's talk about growth, and let's talk about tech, and let's talk about I mean, he said no recession. Right. Very firm. Very confident. Very, like, just laid it out. Employment strong.
Obviously, we got about 58 minutes here until the FOMC decision is released. And I think everybody's going to be watching the future markets after what happened with CPI in that early move yesterday. I don't know if you saw that. That was wild.
Austin Hankwitz: Yeah, very wild.
Daniel Snyder: Thanks for joining us today, everyone. If you have any questions, thoughts, stock ideas, people you want to see, maybe on the podcast, shoot us over an email at [email protected]. If you have questions, concerns, if you want to know where the video replays are, those are on Seeking Alpha under the investment – why are you saying investment -- Investing Experts Podcast. It's going to take me a second, we're going to get into it.
Of course, Austin Hankwitz, as always joining us for the hour. He is over on Seeking Alpha Marketplace at Cash Flow Freaks. How's that going by the way? I keep seeing all your articles there. They were…
Austin Hankwitz: It’s fine man. We're having a blast. We're hosting live streams on Mondays. We're posting a little bit here and there. I think I post a little something about Academy Sports and HIMSS in Health the other day. And it was really cool. We're just -- we're keeping a close eye on a couple of ideas. And yeah, just really fortunate to have so many people rocking with us over there.
And if you have any questions about that, shoot me an email. Ask me something on Twitter. I mean, I am on every social media platform, especially TikTok. So here to serve you guys. Again, thank you all so much for hanging out. Yes. Go check out the chat. Alex just dropped his Seeking Alpha Marketplace. And personally, I'm going to go browse a little bit. I'm now a major Alex King fan. And thanks everyone. This was a lot of fun. We will see you very soon.
Daniel Snyder: If you guys are listening to the podcast, or you’re watching the video replay, we're going to drop a link down in the description as well or beneath the video so that you guys can find the service as well. I mean or even if you have Seeking Alpha Premium, just go read the articles under his author page. I mean, very enlightening. He's very on top of it and he publishes very, very frequently. So, guys, go check it out. Thanks for hanging out with us today. You guys enjoy the rest of the day.
Alex, if you're listening still, we owe you some pints. Next time we see each other in the future, drinks are on us. Thank you so much. Everyone, take care. Have a great rest of the day. Disclaimer, of course. All opinions on this episode are our own. Do not take them as financial advice. Do your own research. Talk to a financial advisor, and we'll see you guys next week Wednesday, 12 PM Eastern. Myself, Austin Hankwitz, we'll see you then. Take care everyone. Have a great rest of the week.
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