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A | Yeah. And it, it solves a problem. That's a different problem, which is, like, when I go on to optimism or arbitrum or, like, I look at my wallet and I'm like, eth, but like, the optimism logo and then eth, but the arbitrum logo and, like, so, so, like, what you, if you there can't be, like, lido eth on blast, it just has to be blast eth. And they have to homogenize all eth that goes onto their layer two. Like, it can't have any sort of, like, derivative in front of it because it all needs to be blast eth. But maybe, I guess that's table stakes for all layer twos, though. |
B | It's table stakes for all layer twos. I actually think you just hit on a super important point. This is not my observation. This was John Sharp's observation, which I'll give him the credit for the initial observation, and then I want to abstain from any incorrect conclusions that I draw from it, but basically, basically protect him from all the wrong stuff that I say after this. But the idea, like, every single eth instance that exists off of main chain is a wrapped version of that eth. Like, it's op eth, it's rbeth, et cetera. So once you've made that mental leap, why wouldn't you just hold the yield bearing version of that wrapped over? |
A | Yeah, I agree with that. And that's why I have staked. I have lido staked eth on optimism inside aave. And so I have aave wrapped staked eth. Optimism wrapped aave staked eth. That's the derivative set that I have. |
B | That just feels a little bit more complicated than just as soon as I. As soon as I get up there, I'm immediately earning yield, and it just feels like. I don't even know. I think we'll see. I just. I don't know. But it was a novel strategy that other protocols weren't doing at the time that clearly allowed him to attract an enormous amount of liquidity. It will probably allow him to attract a lot of activity up to that roll up, and it'll be a good home for blur, which is where I assume that they're going to migrate. |
A | I'm just skeptical as to how, because a ton of eth went into blast, and blast had the. We have native eth yielding eth on our layer two, which doesn't exist. Uh, and then also the. The point farms, right? Also the token air drops. And, like, everyone is ascribing a ton of legitimacy to, like, blast new, innovative strategy of native yield. But really, but really, it was legitimized by the point farming. And maybe it was actually not that big of a deal. We were just thinking it's a big deal because of all the eat that it got from the point farming. Like, I'm worried that we're running into that trap. |
B | David, let me ask you a question. Uh, all of this interest in Eigen Lair, how much of it do you think is the demand is coming from yield from Abs's versus farming Eigen layer points. |
A | Okay. Eigen Lair had hype before the point farm. |
B | I agree. I agree. |
A | But then the point farm amplify. |
B | I think a lot of people are in there for the point, so. Yeah, and that's the hope of this whole thing, right? It's like you the value proposition to someone that is yoloing into Eigen Lair. Because, look, Eigen layer, the team is phenomenal, but there is eventually going to be slashing risks. There is smart contract risk. The way that they solve this cold start problem with this cool idea. But if I'm not getting this extra thing, I don't want to risk my funds is points and rewards and all that stuff. That's how our system works. And some brave souls will try it, some will be rewarded, and some are going to get in trouble for taking too much risk. But the Eigen layer part of the ecosystem, you and I talk about this a lot, is definitely, I'm, like, simultaneously the most concerned about it, but I'm the most interested in it and excited about it at the same time. I think it is where a lot of the action is going to happen this cycle. |
A | Yeah, I judge ecosystems by their ability to nerds night people into crypto. So, like, bitcoin won because it nerdsniped, like, the digital gold bugs, and, like, gave them a banner to, like, rally under. And then Ethereum nerd sniped a certain set of people, and that was sufficiently large to create the ethereum ecosystem. Solana nerd sniped a bunch of other people that bitcoin and ethereum did nothing. Nerd snipe. Um, and I'm watching Eigen Lair nerd snipe people that, no, nothing else in crypto has ever nerdsniped people before. Both people in, like, on Wall street and Silicon Valley, like the SAS SaaS companies can, like, rally behind Eigen Lair. Don't care about bitcoin, don't care about Ethereum, don't care about Solana. But just, like, trust as this, like, module that they can, like, incorporate into their product offering. Like, that makes sense. And, like, Wall street is also, like, totally able to wrap their heads around Eigen Lair. So, like, Eigen layer is in the middle of this very slow motion nerd snipe. And I'm just kind of fascinated to see what types of people it brings into the fold. |
B | Yeah, I'm with you on that, too. One maybe dimension that I would add to what's driving a lot of the Eigen lair buzz. And this flywheel that's kicking in for them is as much as it is an economic security play, where if you're either a cosmos chain or an AV's, and you do not want to pay an enormous amount of emissions to convince people to stake your chain. It makes a ton of sense from the. That's the demand side of their marketplace. But the other reason why you might want to launch as an Eigen layer, AV's is kind of a growth story as well. In the same way that, remember a little while ago, it was like all these chains were moving to Ethereum roll ups, because the idea was like, hey, let me plug into this massive ecosystem in Ithoodae. I think that was pretty good play for a lot of those l one s that were kind of wasting away into obscurity. But now I get to plug into this ecosystem, I get to put myself in this narrative. There's a bunch of eth that wants to move up into roll ups. It was really good for a bunch of those chains, and I think there are going to be a lot of chains. That is another element to the eigen layer thing that people are sort of missing, which is I could be this weird AV's that does this middleware thing that no one really cares about, or I can be the next Eigen layer chain, baby. And I could be a part of this point, you know, take a bunch of the. You know, there's $8 billion of. Of capital eth capital that wants to find its way into these chains. So I think it's a growth story as well as a security story. |
A | Interesting. A growth story, right? |
B | That's what I mean, yeah, I think that's the meta that. That a lot of these AVss are you. That these abs are playing. It's like I could either launch this weird, obscure middleware thing that no one's going to care about, or I can catapult myself into this narrative spotlight and $7 billion worth of each eth, which is looking for a home in various abs's of which I could be one. Right? |
A | Yeah. Yeah. Well, that's kind of like the bullish element of shared security is that it actually costs very little to get a lot of security. Right? |
B | Yeah. |
A | And there's, like, economies of scale here. The more avss that are providing, like, some minor amount of yield to the entire system, more like a leveraged amount of capital comes into that because of how free that yield is. It's free yield. Free yield, baby. |
B | It is real. Yeah. You're just opting in to this incremental additional yield, which is. Feels like a win win, right? |
A | Yeah. And so is what you're saying is like, there's like a. Just a lot of pent up potential energy here between like the massive amount of ETH that's in Eigen layer that has nowhere to go except for these LRT projects who are also filling to the brim with ETH right now. And then all these AVss is like, there's no supply side, there's demand for me and there's like zero avss and there's about to be like eight, and then maybe in a year there'll be like 16 or something. And so like you're saying like, well, as an AV's, it's going to be so easy to attract a ton of capital, is that what you're saying? |
B | Attractive ton of capital to, you know, the hope is that some of those people end up being. They're trying to acquire some of the users from the people who have this ETH and they're also trying to put themselves in this kind of sexy spotlight and narrative. You know, I think that's. I think that's all a big part of it. But there's also, there's a very real reason why this exists. And it's super cool. And the way that I view the LRTs and even projects like ethos is there are a lot of. It's very difficult right now for projects to actually connect with eigen lair directly. So what the lrts basically are, are allowing, it's like adding modularity and flexibility in terms of how these avss end up procuring that security, capital spend. Um, so, but let like, we're, we're talking about a lot of high minded stuff here. David, let me, let me take us out of the weeds for a second. I want to get your, I want to get your take on. |
A | Can I, can I actually share something, Josh? I'm going to share my screen. Are you ready for me to share my screen? Josh is the operator. Bankless nation. All right, all right, all right. I'm going to share my screen a second. Here we go. Share screen. Here we go. Ready for this mic? |
B | I'm ready. |
A | Yuga Labs just acquired proof. |
B | Wow. Oh, no way. |
A | I did not see that coming. |
B | Wow. |
A | This is in the YouTube comments. |
B | Can you give us the background of that? I'm actually not as familiar with. That's Kevin Rose's. |
A | That's Kevin Roses. It's the moon birds thing, the proof collective. And so, yeah, apparently yuga Labs just acquired all of them. So I guess, yeah, the moonbirds collection is now part of Yuga Labs. Who owns bored apes, mutant apes, cryptopunks, me bits, all of these. All right, cool. |
B | Do you think, do you think without looking or cheating, do you think moonbirds goes up or down? The price of moon birds? Birds go up or down? |
A | Definitely up. Definitely up. A, it's a bull market. B, there's, it can't go down anymore. |
B | Yeah. God, you're right. You're right. All right. |
A | What were you gonna bring up? Unless you wanna keep going with that. |
B | Oh no. |
A | Where do you wanna go? |
B | I want to just get your thought on. Its such a cliche question, but just like where are we in this cycle here? Your mental framework for it? Do you wake up a lot of mornings feeling particularly euphoric and bulled up and excited? Maybe especially if you havent been in the space for a particularly long time and this is your first time going through one of these cycles, youre starting to get jazzed up. Price bitcoins above 50k again. How are you, how are you feeling? |
A | I think we are further along in this bull market than what the typical newer entrants will give credit for. Yeah, I think I was reflecting upon my experience last bull market and last bull market. I thought I came in with a reference. It started in January of 2021 when ether pumped and hit new all time highs or hit 11,000 or 1100, um, after being at 100 for like a year, 100 to 300. So it did like a three to four x. Um, like all my ethereum friends were like over the moon. Like we're fine. Like we're finally getting out from under the shadows of bitcoiners. Uh, and then like, and then NFT mania hadn't actually started yet, but it started very quickly after that. Um, and that's that bull market. I was like, okay, that's when the bull market started. It was like January, February of 2021. Uh, so we got like a good like 18 months, two years left in this baby when we actually only had like ten months. Because like I wasn't accounting for, you know, defi summer when like ETH price action stayed below 300. Like people were making a ton of life changing wealth. But you wouldn't have really called it a bull market. Like there was still, during Defi summer, there was like, is this, this isn't product market fit. Like this is not what people, people don't want to gamble on food tokens. Like this isn't mainstream, this isn't causing bitcoin to go up, this isn't causing Eth price to go up. This is just a bunch of like long tail risk on assets to turn into yield farms. That's not a bull market. And so I never accounted for. I never added that onto my bull market time, but that was a mistake because it totally was the bull market. People were making a ton of money. And I learned this from Chris Berniske. It's just like, it really depends on how much net paper gains the entire industry has, and that will determine whether the bull market ends or not. And so paper gains have started. People's like, paper people, like, you're, we're just talking about, like, people are receiving billion dollar airdrops, not selling them. Like, sol bros are, like, massively up, haven't sold. Definitely. Probably, like, you know, nfts are rising. Like, everyone's sitting on, like, a good, healthy stack of paper gains right now, and no one's taking anything off the table because, like, retail's not in yet. And then retail is going to come in, and then, like, we're going to, our paper gains are going to be massive. And that's really when the clock starts ticking. But, like, I'm saying, we're like, we're, like, approaching halfway through the bull market, which I think is a lot further along than most people think. |
B | Yeah, I was going to say about probably time wise, about. Yeah, halfway through. I was going to say fourth inning, but I think fourth inning is almost halfway through. Yeah. |
A | Because, you know, the forest, you know, we got the fourth. We're in the middle of the fourth. |
B | Yeah. You know, it's just funny because my experience was exactly yours. I have this really vivid memory of. Because Covid happened. That was the big thing that happened last time. Right. So it actually, at the end of 20, if you go back and look at the price action of 2019, you'd be, it looks good. It looks paper up only. But that's not how it felt during that time. |
A | Not until the very end. |
B | Yeah, not until very end. And. But then Covid happened and you were like, oh, my God, is this industry? I mean, bitcoin went down to 4000, and then it started to creep up. And I remember I didn't even really start paying attention to it until I went until it was at like 13 or 14. It was like, whoa, I have not seen bitcoin at 14 in a long time. And then I sort of started to watch it heat up and go and go. And I really only was like, yes, it is the bull market after it cleared all time highs. So that's exactly my framework now because, I mean, it was interesting. Like, Coinbase earnings came out yesterday, and we don't need to go into the weeds of it. But you saw the very beginnings of retail was back more than institutional. The retail volume was up more than the institutional. It really, it's not even going to show up in their numbers. It's weird as Coinbase. Where's Coinbase? On the app store. And that started to jump up and, yeah, it's like we're starting to see the very early signs. But you know, what's something that's kind of, I mean, I'd love to get your perspective on this from your bankless venture seat, but one thing that hasn't really started to happen yet is like, funds are raising a bunch. I've heard it's actually still kind of tough sledding out there for the fundraising environment, which is surprising to me because. Yeah. Is that accurate? Inaccurate, because that's another big marker of when these funds start to get raised. |
A | Funds are deploying bigly. Valuations of startups have crept up a pretty meaningful amount, but nothing over the top, nothing like sloshy. |
B | Yeah. |
A | I haven't heard of funds raising, but I'm also just not tapped into that world because, like, we're done raising, so we're not, we're not doing that. We were like, one of the only funds to raise in. What year was that? 2022. 2023. |
B | You guys crushed it. |
A | Yeah, like, we were the only ones who could really, like, get away with it. I haven't heard of funds raising, so. No, but I wouldn't be the one. Cause, like, I'm not paying attention to funds. Like, I'm paying attention. Portfolio companies and funds are definitely deploying right now. Like, cash is being spit out and there's a lot of startup interest. There's a lot of, like, people are actually building really cool shit, really novel shit. Um, yeah, and so I would definitely call it a pretty, like, exciting market. Nothing is too hot. It's definitely a founder's market, not a VC's market. The pendulum is shifted to the founder now. Um, whereas, like, maybe a year ago it was definitely still on the VC side of things. Um, but yeah, that's, that's kind of my take. |
B | So you don't think the, the private markets and public, like, public market just being liquid tokens, I guess in crypto you think they're still walking relatively similarly, or is one crept up in front of the other? |
A | I think so. I've heard other people, I think I've heard Chris Berniski say that, like, private markets are starting to get, like, kind of crazy. And I've seen, I know what I see. What he's talking about, but I don't, wouldn't call it crazy person. It definitely knows more than me, but everything seems okay to me. Like I'm the bull of bankless ventures. Ryan's the brakes, and Ben's like, the rationalist. But, like, at some point, like, I'm just like, guys like, these, like, $50 to $80 million seed rounds are, have become the norm. Like, that is like. And they're, it's a hot market, and this is like. And they're like, oh, that's really expensive. I'm like, yeah, so was all the other ones. Like, this is just what it is. |
B | Yeah, there I've heard. One way of thinking about it is you're a price taker, not a maker. You just got to find the best prices that exist out into the market, will tell you what the valuation is, and you just got to decide whether or not you want to take it. But you guys raised at a really opportune time because it's going to become, like, we've talked about this before, but there's probably a window where especially for, like, most people, your first and even second cycle, you don't make any money because you wait until the new all time high. You have way less time than you think. You know, you go small in the beginning, but then the euphoria kicks in and you invest most of your money at the top where you shouldn't. And there probably is some period of time to just sit on your hands. |
A | Totally. |
B | I don't know when. |
A | I think FTX actually painted an exemplar model of how everyone fails in a bull market, which is they started off conservative. They started doing like arbitrage, like free arbitrage trades between bitcoin and stable coins. And then over the bull market, they started to become more and more risk on with their trading strategies to the point where they ended where they were like, how can we take the most amount of leverage? 3 hours capital also did this. They were also like a very safe GBTC premium trade. And like, even before that, I can't remember what the trade was, but it's even safer. It was like, like risk off trading during the bear market. And then as the bull market continued, it was like, okay, we are down to take price exposure rather than just like, time it, like settlement risk, right. Well, to actually take. We'll take upside now. And then it was like, okay, we'll take leverage now. Oh, we'll take even more leverage now. And so, like, they were every, everyone who failed was taking leverage at the top, whereas like, you should be taking leverage at the bottom and then clear it out before the top and then sell at the top. That's what everyone ought to be doing, but everyone does the opposite. Everyone. More and more exposure as the markets go up in price. |
B | I know. I mean, the other thing too, a couple other dynamics about this is there were a lot of funds last cycle, good funds that are still around, that went from $10 million in Aum to a billion dollars in Aum. And your universe of investable assets or opportunities is so much smaller when you have that size. And I watched this interview that the three arrows guys gave their defense on GBTC, was that, oh, it was a really good trade, but we couldnt account for other people piling in. It's like, yeah, you actually could account for that. You're supposed to. That's what you're supposed to account for. That's why you're a professional money manager. You, you know, and the GBTC thing was just such a hilarious, concentric hallucination because those close end funds always trade at discount to Nav. It should have been really obvious to this industry that I just did an interview with a guy who, it was a huge part of the ETH, part of that trade. And dude, it was just, I mean, it's literally as simple as, have you heard that quote? There's nothing so damaging to your health is hearing that your neighbor made money. It's like, that's what it is. It's just a couple people made 15 or 16 x their, their, uh, what they put in, and everyone just fomo'd into that trade. So I'm sure the same thing is going to happen here at this time. I just, I just don't know what it is. Uh, everyone thinks it's going to be restaking, which makes me think it's not going to be restaken because everyone literally thinks that it's going to be. But I have. I have no idea. |
A | But I think there's like a lot of just like, ancient wisdom that people in Wall street know that, like, people in crypto definitely don't know. And just buying the fact that, like, sometimes we're in a bubble and so are they, and our bubbles don't mix. But it's not going to be me to bring that over here because I don't know it. |
B | No, I don't know it either, actually. You know, it's funny you. |
A | I mean, I feel like of all people, you do know it the most because you interview all the macro people. |
B | So a golden rule of this that I found interviewing macro people is that, you know how when you hear old macro, people talk about crypto and you're just like, oh my God, that's the most cringe take ever. You do not know what you're talking about. It goes the other way, too. And when you hear crypto, people talk about macro, you're like, oh, God. I'm not saying that I know enough to make great predictions about macro. I definitely don't. But I've done enough interviews where I can understand who knows what they're talking about and who doesn't. I mean, one thing that should have been extremely obvious to our industry that wasn't at the time is when they started raising rates, we all should have gotten extremely concerned. And I was not concerned. |
A | I had no frame of reference for this. I remember a Jim Bianco tweet saying, the times have changed. I think maybe he used a term like paradigm shift. And I remember this tweet because it burned into my brain. I'm like, Jim Bianco, what do you mean by that? I don't get it. Why is the new phase of markets I don't understand. And then like ten months later, I very much understood exactly what he meant. And so did my portfolio. Like, oh, that's what you mean by that. The fastest rate hike in history. But this is also like, why? Like, the end of last bull market was also just like, so weird. And maybe it wasn't. Maybe it ended just the same way it always going to end because everyone was sitting on the mountain of paper games that I was talking about. But also we had the fastest interest rate hike that we've had in most market participants. Participants living memory. |
B | Yeah, I feel like it's always going to be something. I sort of am in the camp that I'm in the Chris camp of everything that goes up must come down. Crypto goes up so fast that it must come down. Although I do think that there's good reason to believe that it's not different this time. But here's a trend that's been happening, uh, since for, for basically as long as crypto is in existence, every bull cycle becomes slightly more muted. Like the peak to trough returns of, say, bitcoin as you go along has gone lower and lower. And the volatility of bitcoin and ethereum, the assets go lower and lower. And the reason for that is really just a law of large numbers things. If bitcoin peaked, a trough returned, what it did in the 2011 cycle be the most valuable asset on earth ten times over. So that just can't happen. But that's probably good. And then the other thing is these ETF's might have not changed the game, but they might have exacerbated that existing trend. Because think about what was driving the price of bitcoin in the 2020 to 2021 cycle. It was retail fomoing their stimmies into bitcoin, or it was smart money that was front running that retail. And so the next, the incremental dollar moving into bitcoin was that hot money retail kind of just chasing this trend. But now with the bitcoin ETF's and soon ETH ETF's, which I think everyone is generally sleeping on, is the next incremental dollar is not a hot money retail dollar. It is a slow passive dollar that is moving into bitcoin now. And the people that trade the bitcoin ETF's aren't like you and me. They don't see, oh, bitcoin go up, I should probably buy more. They say, oh, bitcoins up 10% this week. It's probably going to mean revert, I'm going to sell. And that behavior over time is just going to level out the price appreciation of bitcoin. And I think it's going to happen with ETH, and that is the way that it should ultimately end up happening. I think that's a good thing. |
A | But I learned this from, I can't remember how press and maybe I need to get a second opinion on this. But his big idea was that as soon as we have sustainable, dependable flows, you get less volatility. I think that's just true of any financial asset. If you have sustainable flows, volatility goes down. Which would be great for the PR and optics. If bitcoin can stop and ether stop being so volatile, that's a maturing market. You said that these markets dampen over time law of large numbers. Totally true. Like you can see that in the bitcoin and the ETH volatility, but also like looking at the market bull markets as like invents events in crypto, they can still be just like equally frothy as the last one because people will always go down the long tail and like there's no cap on how far down the long tail you can get. Like we were trading like jpegs of text at one point when they, one of them, like the floor got to 25 eth. Like that was some extreme frothy shit. And like, sometimes like, I think it's kind of a little bit lost to his loss to history. But the IcO waterfall of just, like, the shitcoin waterfall that was in the 2017, like, that was an insane time where, like, it was completely disconnected from reality. And it's kind of hard to express. It's even hard to remember how insane it was. I think Eric Voorhees had a tweet where he was talking about, like, yeah, most people are just under indexing about how insane the 2017 ICO mania was, because it's just, like, lost to memory. Like, it's like the memories are smoothed out. You can't really remember. It's hard to compare to the 2021 bull market. But also, I think, like, with bitcoin and ether are massively large numbers. Those are just hydraulic pumps down on the long tail and can make the long tail equally frothy, no matter what kind of bull market it is. |
B | 100%. Those arguments never held that much water with me. You hear people talk about, you know, we're never going to inject $7 trillion into the market again. That was as crazy as it's ever going to get. I think 2017 was crazier than 2020 and 2021. |
A | I can't. Without confidence. I think that's true. |
B | It felt crazier. It was. I remember looking at the price. I mean, that was also our first bull market, though. |
A | We had no frame. |
B | I know, but I think that it was just smaller. And the prices, dude, I just remember these things would go up, like, you know, 60, 70% a day, I guess maybe if I missed the whole NFT thing last time, which is maybe why I'm doubling down on it, but, yeah, I just, I don't know, equally crazy. And there's going to be something equally crazy next time. But, yeah, the long tail of cryptos is interesting as it's ever been, I think, and it's as dispersed as it's ever been. I can't keep up with all the different. You know, it's tough to keep up with everything that's going on. Um, but, David, what are your thoughts on the ETH eTF in general? Cause I've been seeing, there's a. There's an argument on Twitter that it's not gonna being as big of a deal. |
A | The people are saying that. |
B | Yeah, yeah. It's not as attractive to institutional audience as. As a bitcoin ETF is. What do you think? |
A | So I asked Sandy from Franklin Templeton about, like, my. My perspective on ether is that, like, it's a more attractive asset for Wall street. Surprise. The bankless guy thinks that ether is a more attractive asset, um, just because it's like a tech platform. It's like a platform technology play. And that just resonates with them. Like bitcoin. Bitcoin is digital gold. Okay, great. Uh, but ethereum is tech with like, apps and other chains built on top of it. And just as a form factor, it just is more understandable. It's got, like, you can do DCF analysis on, on ETh. And I know, like, you want to throw a, for your flag about how to evaluate networks with a DCF analysis, but the point is you can, and they will accept it because that is what they understand. |
B | I think you're probably right about that, David. Yeah. |
A | And so, like, it doesn't, maybe I'm only like, right a little bit on the fact that, like, okay, Wall street likes it a little bit more because of the tech play, the DCF play. But also ETh is one third of the size of bitcoin, so liking it a little bit more for that reason. Like, you multiply that by three, because just like, it's. And then also this is a, you know, from Vance Spencer's Twitter, it's like there's just much less float on ether, on them, on the markets, because it's in layer twos, it's in eigen layer, it's in compound, it's in aave. And so a dollar means a lot more to the ether price than it does for the bitcoin price. |
B | I think that's going to be the ultimate driving thing, people. The crypto natives will debate what is EtH story? Is it a money or a tech platform? Is it yield or is it ultrasound money? You know what tradfi thinks? They don't give a shit. Yeah. They just need a story. It's like bitcoin. It's the next bitcoin. It's smaller. Get in. Now, I, and I think another, another thing that I don't believe, that the bitcoiners have always believed, is it's only bitcoin. It's only central banks will only buy bitcoin. And that's the safest one. I've just never bought into that idea. If anything, I think the most, the most realistic outcome is a basket. They love basket. They love baskets. |
A | Like they're already building baskets with bonds, equities, and bitcoin in there. They're already building the baskets. |
B | There you go. That's. And so there'll be a crypto basket. And how many times have you heard David from maybe someone who's on the older side who I don't really understand this. I just want to give me broad exposure. Like, I just want exposure, you know, they don't. So I just, I, I've never bought into that idea that it's only going to be bitcoin. I think, if anything, I think if anything, right now, the bitcoin ETF has surprised people with the flows. Yes. Even the most bullish more and more. Yeah. And I don't know if we're in some kind of near p. If you do a run rate of 250 trading days, $500 million inflows a day, you wind up with 100 billion. And I think that just sounds wrong to me. That sounds too high. But it's looking like it's going to be a phenomenal success for bitcoin. Right. People are going to say ETH is going to do something similar to that. And Vance pointed this out on bell curve, but bitcoin eth, bitcoin bottomed the ETH BTC ratio bottomed like the day of the ETF's. And it's probably not to make a prediction, but it's probably, if it hasn't bottom, it's probably, probably a good bet. |
A | Probably that that's going to. |
B | Yeah. So that's, and also, this is the time Solana really messed everyone up. You and I have talked about this before. The, the typical thing that happens during this point of the cycle is everything sells off. Bitcoin sells off the least. ETH is the second least. And then everything else is this kind of bucket. And then what ends up happening is thats when bitcoin dominance peaks, then bitcoin runs first, and then everything else follows and people move out along the risk spectrum. Solana just messed everyone up because there was that idiosyncratic FTX event and so it got drastically underpriced, then it got overpriced. But this is just really typical stuff for this part of the cycle. Bitcoin is running first. ETH is going to run again soon. So thats how I feel about it. And people say its the ETF narrative, but its probably just what was always going to happen, honestly. |
A | Yeah, thats probably right. Thats probably right. Yeah. Theres a lot of things like that. Like the whole interest rates were hiking faster than all time, but the bull market was ending. We were trading text jpegs were time now. |
B | Yeah. Like how much longer do you think we would have gone if, even if the interest rate thing hadn't happened? |
A | It couldn't. It couldn't. Have been that much longer. |
B | I agree. What goes up must eventually come down, so. Yeah. |
A | All right, man. Should we call here? |
B | We can call it. Yeah. This was a lot of fun, buddy. I like these unscripted things. Yeah. I really like them raw, unvarnished. David. I think people want that, David, don't they? Am. |
A | I think Ryan's the more, like, varnish one. I'm always kind of, like, more unscripted and shooting from the hip, but maybe. Maybe that's my take. |
B | That is true. In the best way. In the best way. |
A | All right, man. This is great. Thanks so much. What's your Twitter handle? |
B | If people want to follow you, I am Mikelido. You can follow me there. |
A | We'll put those in the show notes. Thanks, Mike. I really appreciate it. |