Movie fans know that sequels are rarely any good, and they often take a darker turn than the original. The first installment of Trump as President was disappointing to many; the remake, too, is going to be worse. Trump sees unpredictability as an asset that keeps others off balance, and his well-deserved reputation for erratic behavior makes it harder to criticize him for being inconsistent. He said a lot of crazy things during his campaign, but how much of it was bluster and bluff and how much was sincere remains to be seen. Trump’s presidency would likely reshape the global balance of power, with the US withdrawing from certain commitments while reasserting itself in other areas. His isolationist tendencies might lead to a reduced American presence in traditional conflict zones, but his assertiveness in trade and diplomacy could redefine relationships with key players like China and Iran. Here is a look at some areas he will be focusing:

Changing the Ukraine Strategy
A cornerstone of reassessment of US support his campaign, Trump criticized the “blank cheque” approach to military and economic aid, suggesting a quick reduction or complete cessation of support. It is difficult to anticipate Trump's policy on the war because his team contains personnel with very different views. One group advocates sharply reducing aid to Ukraine—a view many associate with Trump. This group is naive about the Kremlin's policy toward the United
States—Putin states plainly that the United States is adversary number one—and clueless about the danger of a Kremlin victory in Ukraine. The other camp recognizes the threat to US interests in Europe and elsewhere if Washington were to abandon Ukraine. This group would pursue a Reaganesque policy of peace through strength and, unlike the Biden team, not be intimidated by Putin's nuclear bluster. Additionally, Trump is expected to advocate for immediate peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, signaling a preference for negotiated settlements over prolonged military engagement.

A firm stance on Israel
Biden and Blinken's mishandling of the Middle East hurt Harris in the election, as did her unwillingness to distance herself from a policy that was both inhumane and ineffective. Among other things, this position undercut her attempts to portray Trump as a dangerous extremist who didn’t care about human rights, democracy, or the rule of law. But nobody should be under the illusion that matters will improve with Trump in the White House. His Middle East policy will likely continue his staunch support for Israel, positioning him as the most pro-Israel president in American history. However, reviving the "Deal of the Century" appears off the table, as the shifting dynamics in the region make it untenable. The escalation of violence in Palestine has complicated relations between Israel and key players like Saudi Arabia, whose leadership insists on the establishment of a viable and independent Palestinian state—a condition Trump and Israel are unlikely to accept. This unwavering support for Israel may also exacerbate tensions with Iran, although Trump’s historical approach hints at the possibility of unconventional diplomacy reminiscent of his outreach to North Korea.

Iran: Sanctions and the nuclear question
The return of Trump is likely to quickly evoke memories of his maximum-pressure campaign and the killing of Iranian Quds Force leader Qasem Soleimani. It is a clear possibility that Trump would immediately return to this campaign, in which sanctions would not just increase but be enforced. Trump’s strategy, however, would face significant limitations. Existing sanctions, he believes, have lost their effectiveness due to widespread international trade with Tehran. While his administration might explore the possibility of a new nuclear deal, it would likely be framed on terms favorable to the US, reflecting his transactional approach to international agreements.
The Trump administration may be unable to recreate its full network of allies to undertake an intensive anti-Iran policy, especially if the policy does not contain a clear end goal of reaching a comprehensive deal with Iran.

The Abraham Accords between Israel and Arab nations
The Abraham Accords will likely serve as a key pillar of US policy in the Middle East for the Trump administration. Knowing that the Accords were among the foremost policy successes during Trump’s first term, the administration will prioritize enhancing and expanding the Accords, with a particular focus on securing agreements with key players such as Saudi Arabia. While the Trump administration will pursue opportunities to engage Palestinian leadership and bring an end to the Israel-Hamas war, it will not see a peace agreement as a necessary precursor for expanding the Accords. Instead, Trump will focus on creating a regional alliance against Iranian influence, leveraging recent Iranian and proxy actions across the region to entice new members with weapons agreements. Additionally, the new administration will likely explore initiatives that foster trade and investment among signatory nations to bolster new and existing agreements.

Competition with China
Trump’s policy toward China in his second administration will likely be similar to his approach during his first term. He has already shown a continued fixation on trade and outlined a plan to impose high tariffs, which will reignite disputes with Beijing over this issue and likely prompt retaliation against US businesses. In other respects, Trump may actually ease tensions with China—but not to the benefit of US strategic interests. Trump stated Russia friendly position on the war in Ukraine will remove a point of contention with Beijing but also serve Chinese leader Xi Jinping's geopolitical agenda. Trump has already signaled a lack of support for Taiwan and seems to believe that he can deter Chinese military action through personal charisma. Xi is not likely to be bedazzled, and Trump's display of weakness could embolden Beijing to take an even more aggressive stance toward the island's democratic government. More broadly, Trump's overt contempt for Washington's traditional allies will likely complicate collective action toward China and open divisions for Xi to exploit and expand Chinese global influence. Trump promises a focus on issues of minimal strategic importance to the United States that nevertheless will lead to Beijing and Washington bickering, along with a withdrawal of US global leadership that allows Xi to promote Chinese power at Washington's expense.

Balancing China and Russia
In terms of great power competition, Trump is expected to adopt a dual strategy: a tough stance on China, primarily through economic measures like tariffs, and a softer approach to Russia. His trade conflict with China would aim to secure more favorable terms for the US, potentially leading to productive negotiations. Meanwhile, his relatively conciliatory posture toward Russia would align with his long-standing skepticism of NATO's expansion and his desire to avoid further confrontation with Moscow.

Relations with the EU
Trump's return to the White House will pose a significant challenge for the US-European Union (EU) relationship. The relationship will become much less strategic and much less all-encompassing. Instead, EU and member state leaders will have to expend political capital at home and in Washington to make progress. And things will get worse quickly before they get better. Trump may well make good on his threat of imposing tariffs on the bloc, which would pressure Brussels into retaliation and a tit-for-tat trade war.
The Trump administration will probably not look kindly on existing initiatives that the EU enjoyed with the Biden administration, and many in the Trump circle aiming for top jobs are not friends of Brussels. The EU will no longer have a strategic partner by default, including in its support for Ukraine or ambitions for EU defense, economic security, or the green transition. Paradoxically, the Trump administration will also likely demand more from the EU—on trade, China policy, and support for Ukraine if US aid is to continue, and more.

Conclusion
In essence, Trump's return would signal a marked departure from the current administration's strategies, reflecting his unique blend of nationalism, pragmatism, and unpredictability. How the world would respond to this shift remains a critical question for policymakers and analysts alike.