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When are Lemons Purple? The Concept Association Bias of CLIP

Large-scale vision-language models such as CLIP have shown impressive performance on zero-shot image classification and image-to-text retrieval. However, such zero-shot performance of CLIP-based models does not realize in tasks that require a finer-grained correspondence between vision and language, such as Visual Question Answering (VQA). We investigate why this is the case, and report an interesting phenomenon of CLIP, which we call the Concept Association Bias (CAB), as a potential cause of the difficulty of applying CLIP to VQA and similar tasks. CAB is especially apparent when two concepts are present in the given image while a text prompt only contains a single concept. In such a case, we find that CLIP tends to treat input as a bag of concepts and attempts to fill in the other missing concept crossmodally, leading to an unexpected zero-shot prediction. For example, when asked for the color of a lemon in an image, CLIP predicts ``purple'' if the image contains a lemon and an eggplant. We demonstrate the Concept Association Bias of CLIP by showing that CLIP's zero-shot classification performance greatly suffers when there is a strong concept association between an object (e.g. lemon) and an attribute (e.g. its color). On the other hand, when the association between object and attribute is weak, we do not see this phenomenon. Furthermore, we show that CAB is significantly mitigated when we enable CLIP to learn deeper structure across image and text embeddings by adding an additional Transformer on top of CLIP and fine-tuning it on VQA. We find that across such fine-tuned variants of CLIP, the strength of CAB in a model predicts how well it performs on VQA.

LEMON: LanguagE ModeL for Negative Sampling of Knowledge Graph Embeddings

Knowledge Graph Embedding models have become an important area of machine learning.Those models provide a latent representation of entities and relations in a knowledge graph which can then be used in downstream machine learning tasks such as link prediction. The learning process of such models can be performed by contrasting positive and negative triples. While all triples of a KG are considered positive, negative triples are usually not readily available. Therefore, the choice of the sampling method to obtain the negative triples play a crucial role in the performance and effectiveness of Knowledge Graph Embedding models. Most of the current methods fetch negative samples from a random distribution of entities in the underlying Knowledge Graph which also often includes meaningless triples. Other known methods use adversarial techniques or generative neural networks which consequently reduce the efficiency of the process. In this paper, we propose an approach for generating informative negative samples considering available complementary knowledge about entities. Particularly, Pre-trained Language Models are used to form neighborhood clusters by utilizing the distances between entities to obtain representations of symbolic entities via their textual information. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach on benchmark Knowledge Graphs with textual information for the link prediction task.

LeMo: Enabling LEss Token Involvement for MOre Context Fine-tuning

The escalating demand for long-context applications has intensified the necessity of extending the LLM context windows. Despite recent fine-tuning approaches successfully expanding context lengths, their high memory footprints, especially for activations, present a critical practical limitation. Current parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods prioritize reducing parameter update overhead over addressing activation memory constraints. Similarly, existing sparsity mechanisms improve computational efficiency but overlook activation memory optimization due to the phenomenon of Shadowy Activation. In this paper, we propose LeMo, the first LLM fine-tuning system that explores and exploits a new token-level sparsity mechanism inherent in long-context scenarios, termed Contextual Token Sparsity. LeMo minimizes redundant token involvement by assessing the informativeness of token embeddings while preserving model accuracy. Specifically, LeMo introduces three key techniques: (1) Token Elimination, dynamically identifying and excluding redundant tokens across varying inputs and layers. (2) Pattern Prediction, utilizing well-trained predictors to approximate token sparsity patterns with minimal overhead. (3) Kernel Optimization, employing permutation-free and segment-based strategies to boost system performance. We implement LeMo as an end-to-end fine-tuning system compatible with various LLM architectures and other optimization techniques. Comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that LeMo reduces memory consumption by up to 1.93x and achieves up to 1.36x speedups, outperforming state-of-the-art fine-tuning systems.

On the Power of the Weisfeiler-Leman Test for Graph Motif Parameters

Seminal research in the field of graph neural networks (GNNs) has revealed a direct correspondence between the expressive capabilities of GNNs and the k-dimensional Weisfeiler-Leman (kWL) test, a widely-recognized method for verifying graph isomorphism. This connection has reignited interest in comprehending the specific graph properties effectively distinguishable by the kWL test. A central focus of research in this field revolves around determining the least dimensionality k, for which kWL can discern graphs with different number of occurrences of a pattern graph P. We refer to such a least k as the WL-dimension of this pattern counting problem. This inquiry traditionally delves into two distinct counting problems related to patterns: subgraph counting and induced subgraph counting. Intriguingly, despite their initial appearance as separate challenges with seemingly divergent approaches, both of these problems are interconnected components of a more comprehensive problem: "graph motif parameters". In this paper, we provide a precise characterization of the WL-dimension of labeled graph motif parameters. As specific instances of this result, we obtain characterizations of the WL-dimension of the subgraph counting and induced subgraph counting problem for every labeled pattern P. We additionally demonstrate that in cases where the kWL test distinguishes between graphs with varying occurrences of a pattern P, the exact number of occurrences of P can be computed uniformly using only local information of the last layer of a corresponding GNN. We finally delve into the challenge of recognizing the WL-dimension of various graph parameters. We give a polynomial time algorithm for determining the WL-dimension of the subgraph counting problem for given pattern P, answering an open question from previous work.

Assessing Language Model Deployment with Risk Cards

This paper introduces RiskCards, a framework for structured assessment and documentation of risks associated with an application of language models. As with all language, text generated by language models can be harmful, or used to bring about harm. Automating language generation adds both an element of scale and also more subtle or emergent undesirable tendencies to the generated text. Prior work establishes a wide variety of language model harms to many different actors: existing taxonomies identify categories of harms posed by language models; benchmarks establish automated tests of these harms; and documentation standards for models, tasks and datasets encourage transparent reporting. However, there is no risk-centric framework for documenting the complexity of a landscape in which some risks are shared across models and contexts, while others are specific, and where certain conditions may be required for risks to manifest as harms. RiskCards address this methodological gap by providing a generic framework for assessing the use of a given language model in a given scenario. Each RiskCard makes clear the routes for the risk to manifest harm, their placement in harm taxonomies, and example prompt-output pairs. While RiskCards are designed to be open-source, dynamic and participatory, we present a "starter set" of RiskCards taken from a broad literature survey, each of which details a concrete risk presentation. Language model RiskCards initiate a community knowledge base which permits the mapping of risks and harms to a specific model or its application scenario, ultimately contributing to a better, safer and shared understanding of the risk landscape.

Taking ROCKET on an Efficiency Mission: Multivariate Time Series Classification with LightWaveS

Nowadays, with the rising number of sensors in sectors such as healthcare and industry, the problem of multivariate time series classification (MTSC) is getting increasingly relevant and is a prime target for machine and deep learning approaches. Their expanding adoption in real-world environments is causing a shift in focus from the pursuit of ever-higher prediction accuracy with complex models towards practical, deployable solutions that balance accuracy and parameters such as prediction speed. An MTSC model that has attracted attention recently is ROCKET, based on random convolutional kernels, both because of its very fast training process and its state-of-the-art accuracy. However, the large number of features it utilizes may be detrimental to inference time. Examining its theoretical background and limitations enables us to address potential drawbacks and present LightWaveS: a framework for accurate MTSC, which is fast both during training and inference. Specifically, utilizing wavelet scattering transformation and distributed feature selection, we manage to create a solution that employs just 2.5% of the ROCKET features, while achieving accuracy comparable to recent MTSC models. LightWaveS also scales well across multiple compute nodes and with the number of input channels during training. In addition, it can significantly reduce the input size and provide insight to an MTSC problem by keeping only the most useful channels. We present three versions of our algorithm and their results on distributed training time and scalability, accuracy, and inference speedup. We show that we achieve speedup ranging from 9x to 53x compared to ROCKET during inference on an edge device, on datasets with comparable accuracy.

TLOB: A Novel Transformer Model with Dual Attention for Stock Price Trend Prediction with Limit Order Book Data

Stock Price Trend Prediction (SPTP) based on Limit Order Book (LOB) data is a fundamental challenge in financial markets. Despite advances in deep learning, existing models fail to generalize across different market conditions and struggle to reliably predict short-term trends. Surprisingly, by adapting a simple MLP-based architecture to LOB, we show that we surpass SoTA performance; thus, challenging the necessity of complex architectures. Unlike past work that shows robustness issues, we propose TLOB, a transformer-based model that uses a dual attention mechanism to capture spatial and temporal dependencies in LOB data. This allows it to adaptively focus on the market microstructure, making it particularly effective for longer-horizon predictions and volatile market conditions. We also introduce a new labeling method that improves on previous ones, removing the horizon bias. We evaluate TLOB's effectiveness using the established FI-2010 benchmark, which exceeds the state-of-the-art by an average of 3.7 F1-score(\%). Additionally, TLOB shows improvements on Tesla and Intel with a 1.3 and 7.7 increase in F1-score(\%), respectively. Additionally, we empirically show how stock price predictability has declined over time (-6.68 absolute points in F1-score(\%)), highlighting the growing market efficiencies. Predictability must be considered in relation to transaction costs, so we experimented with defining trends using an average spread, reflecting the primary transaction cost. The resulting performance deterioration underscores the complexity of translating trend classification into profitable trading strategies. We argue that our work provides new insights into the evolving landscape of stock price trend prediction and sets a strong foundation for future advancements in financial AI. We release the code at https://github.com/LeonardoBerti00/TLOB.

TRADES: Generating Realistic Market Simulations with Diffusion Models

Financial markets are complex systems characterized by high statistical noise, nonlinearity, and constant evolution. Thus, modeling them is extremely hard. We address the task of generating realistic and responsive Limit Order Book (LOB) market simulations, which are fundamental for calibrating and testing trading strategies, performing market impact experiments, and generating synthetic market data. Previous works lack realism, usefulness, and responsiveness of the generated simulations. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel TRAnsformer-based Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Engine for LOB Simulations (TRADES). TRADES generates realistic order flows conditioned on the state of the market, leveraging a transformer-based architecture that captures the temporal and spatial characteristics of high-frequency market data. There is a notable absence of quantitative metrics for evaluating generative market simulation models in the literature. To tackle this problem, we adapt the predictive score, a metric measured as an MAE, by training a stock price predictive model on synthetic data and testing it on real data. We compare TRADES with previous works on two stocks, reporting an x3.27 and x3.47 improvement over SoTA according to the predictive score, demonstrating that we generate useful synthetic market data for financial downstream tasks. We assess TRADES's market simulation realism and responsiveness, showing that it effectively learns the conditional data distribution and successfully reacts to an experimental agent, giving sprout to possible calibrations and evaluations of trading strategies and market impact experiments. We developed DeepMarket, the first open-source Python framework for market simulation with deep learning. Our repository includes a synthetic LOB dataset composed of TRADES's generates simulations. We release the code at github.com/LeonardoBerti00/DeepMarket.

TI-PREGO: Chain of Thought and In-Context Learning for Online Mistake Detection in PRocedural EGOcentric Videos

Identifying procedural errors online from egocentric videos is a critical yet challenging task across various domains, including manufacturing, healthcare, and skill-based training. The nature of such mistakes is inherently open-set, as unforeseen or novel errors may occur, necessitating robust detection systems that do not rely on prior examples of failure. Currently, however, no technique effectively detects open-set procedural mistakes online. We propose a dual branch architecture to address this problem in an online fashion: one branch continuously performs step recognition from the input egocentric video, while the other anticipates future steps based on the recognition module's output. Mistakes are detected as mismatches between the currently recognized action and the action predicted by the anticipation module. The recognition branch takes input frames, predicts the current action, and aggregates frame-level results into action tokens. The anticipation branch, specifically, leverages the solid pattern-matching capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) to predict action tokens based on previously predicted ones. Given the online nature of the task, we also thoroughly benchmark the difficulties associated with per-frame evaluations, particularly the need for accurate and timely predictions in dynamic online scenarios. Extensive experiments on two procedural datasets demonstrate the challenges and opportunities of leveraging a dual-branch architecture for mistake detection, showcasing the effectiveness of our proposed approach. In a thorough evaluation including recognition and anticipation variants and state-of-the-art models, our method reveals its robustness and effectiveness in online applications.

Short-term Volatility Estimation for High Frequency Trades using Gaussian processes (GPs)

The fundamental theorem behind financial markets is that stock prices are intrinsically complex and stochastic. One of the complexities is the volatility associated with stock prices. Volatility is a tendency for prices to change unexpectedly [1]. Price volatility is often detrimental to the return economics, and thus, investors should factor it in whenever making investment decisions, choices, and temporal or permanent moves. It is, therefore, crucial to make necessary and regular short and long-term stock price volatility forecasts for the safety and economics of investors returns. These forecasts should be accurate and not misleading. Different models and methods, such as ARCH GARCH models, have been intuitively implemented to make such forecasts. However, such traditional means fail to capture the short-term volatility forecasts effectively. This paper, therefore, investigates and implements a combination of numeric and probabilistic models for short-term volatility and return forecasting for high-frequency trades. The essence is that one-day-ahead volatility forecasts were made with Gaussian Processes (GPs) applied to the outputs of a Numerical market prediction (NMP) model. Firstly, the stock price data from NMP was corrected by a GP. Since it is not easy to set price limits in a market due to its free nature and randomness, a Censored GP was used to model the relationship between the corrected stock prices and returns. Forecasting errors were evaluated using the implied and estimated data.

MultiTACRED: A Multilingual Version of the TAC Relation Extraction Dataset

Relation extraction (RE) is a fundamental task in information extraction, whose extension to multilingual settings has been hindered by the lack of supervised resources comparable in size to large English datasets such as TACRED (Zhang et al., 2017). To address this gap, we introduce the MultiTACRED dataset, covering 12 typologically diverse languages from 9 language families, which is created by machine-translating TACRED instances and automatically projecting their entity annotations. We analyze translation and annotation projection quality, identify error categories, and experimentally evaluate fine-tuned pretrained mono- and multilingual language models in common transfer learning scenarios. Our analyses show that machine translation is a viable strategy to transfer RE instances, with native speakers judging more than 83% of the translated instances to be linguistically and semantically acceptable. We find monolingual RE model performance to be comparable to the English original for many of the target languages, and that multilingual models trained on a combination of English and target language data can outperform their monolingual counterparts. However, we also observe a variety of translation and annotation projection errors, both due to the MT systems and linguistic features of the target languages, such as pronoun-dropping, compounding and inflection, that degrade dataset quality and RE model performance.

Prompt Tuned Embedding Classification for Multi-Label Industry Sector Allocation

Prompt Tuning is emerging as a scalable and cost-effective method to fine-tune Pretrained Language Models (PLMs), which are often referred to as Large Language Models (LLMs). This study benchmarks the performance and computational efficiency of Prompt Tuning and baselines for multi-label text classification. This is applied to the challenging task of classifying companies into an investment firm's proprietary industry taxonomy, supporting their thematic investment strategy. Text-to-text classification is frequently reported to outperform task-specific classification heads, but has several limitations when applied to a multi-label classification problem where each label consists of multiple tokens: (a) Generated labels may not match any label in the label taxonomy; (b) The fine-tuning process lacks permutation invariance and is sensitive to the order of the provided labels; (c) The model provides binary decisions rather than appropriate confidence scores. Limitation (a) is addressed by applying constrained decoding using Trie Search, which slightly improves classification performance. All limitations (a), (b), and (c) are addressed by replacing the PLM's language head with a classification head, which is referred to as Prompt Tuned Embedding Classification (PTEC). This improves performance significantly, while also reducing computational costs during inference. In our industrial application, the training data is skewed towards well-known companies. We confirm that the model's performance is consistent across both well-known and less-known companies. Our overall results indicate the continuing need to adapt state-of-the-art methods to domain-specific tasks, even in the era of PLMs with strong generalization abilities. We release our codebase and a benchmarking dataset at https://github.com/EQTPartners/PTEC.

BHASA: A Holistic Southeast Asian Linguistic and Cultural Evaluation Suite for Large Language Models

The rapid development of Large Language Models (LLMs) and the emergence of novel abilities with scale have necessitated the construction of holistic, diverse and challenging benchmarks such as HELM and BIG-bench. However, at the moment, most of these benchmarks focus only on performance in English and evaluations that include Southeast Asian (SEA) languages are few in number. We therefore propose BHASA, a holistic linguistic and cultural evaluation suite for LLMs in SEA languages. It comprises three components: (1) a NLP benchmark covering eight tasks across Natural Language Understanding (NLU), Generation (NLG) and Reasoning (NLR) tasks, (2) LINDSEA, a linguistic diagnostic toolkit that spans the gamut of linguistic phenomena including syntax, semantics and pragmatics, and (3) a cultural diagnostics dataset that probes for both cultural representation and sensitivity. For this preliminary effort, we implement the NLP benchmark only for Indonesian, Vietnamese, Thai and Tamil, and we only include Indonesian and Tamil for LINDSEA and the cultural diagnostics dataset. As GPT-4 is purportedly one of the best-performing multilingual LLMs at the moment, we use it as a yardstick to gauge the capabilities of LLMs in the context of SEA languages. Our initial experiments on GPT-4 with BHASA find it lacking in various aspects of linguistic capabilities, cultural representation and sensitivity in the targeted SEA languages. BHASA is a work in progress and will continue to be improved and expanded in the future. The repository for this paper can be found at: https://github.com/aisingapore/BHASA

QLoRA: Efficient Finetuning of Quantized LLMs

We present QLoRA, an efficient finetuning approach that reduces memory usage enough to finetune a 65B parameter model on a single 48GB GPU while preserving full 16-bit finetuning task performance. QLoRA backpropagates gradients through a frozen, 4-bit quantized pretrained language model into Low Rank Adapters~(LoRA). Our best model family, which we name Guanaco, outperforms all previous openly released models on the Vicuna benchmark, reaching 99.3% of the performance level of ChatGPT while only requiring 24 hours of finetuning on a single GPU. QLoRA introduces a number of innovations to save memory without sacrificing performance: (a) 4-bit NormalFloat (NF4), a new data type that is information theoretically optimal for normally distributed weights (b) double quantization to reduce the average memory footprint by quantizing the quantization constants, and (c) paged optimziers to manage memory spikes. We use QLoRA to finetune more than 1,000 models, providing a detailed analysis of instruction following and chatbot performance across 8 instruction datasets, multiple model types (LLaMA, T5), and model scales that would be infeasible to run with regular finetuning (e.g. 33B and 65B parameter models). Our results show that QLoRA finetuning on a small high-quality dataset leads to state-of-the-art results, even when using smaller models than the previous SoTA. We provide a detailed analysis of chatbot performance based on both human and GPT-4 evaluations showing that GPT-4 evaluations are a cheap and reasonable alternative to human evaluation. Furthermore, we find that current chatbot benchmarks are not trustworthy to accurately evaluate the performance levels of chatbots. A lemon-picked analysis demonstrates where Guanaco fails compared to ChatGPT. We release all of our models and code, including CUDA kernels for 4-bit training.