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The Chronicles of RAG: The Retriever, the Chunk and the Generator

Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) has become one of the most popular paradigms for enabling LLMs to access external data, and also as a mechanism for grounding to mitigate against hallucinations. When implementing RAG you can face several challenges like effective integration of retrieval models, efficient representation learning, data diversity, computational efficiency optimization, evaluation, and quality of text generation. Given all these challenges, every day a new technique to improve RAG appears, making it unfeasible to experiment with all combinations for your problem. In this context, this paper presents good practices to implement, optimize, and evaluate RAG for the Brazilian Portuguese language, focusing on the establishment of a simple pipeline for inference and experiments. We explored a diverse set of methods to answer questions about the first Harry Potter book. To generate the answers we used the OpenAI's gpt-4, gpt-4-1106-preview, gpt-3.5-turbo-1106, and Google's Gemini Pro. Focusing on the quality of the retriever, our approach achieved an improvement of MRR@10 by 35.4% compared to the baseline. When optimizing the input size in the application, we observed that it is possible to further enhance it by 2.4%. Finally, we present the complete architecture of the RAG with our recommendations. As result, we moved from a baseline of 57.88% to a maximum relative score of 98.61%.

Enhancing LLM Problem Solving with REAP: Reflection, Explicit Problem Deconstruction, and Advanced Prompting

Large Language Models (LLMs) have transformed natural language processing, yet improving their problem-solving capabilities, particularly for complex, reasoning-intensive tasks, remains a persistent challenge. This paper introduces the REAP (Reflection, Explicit Problem Deconstruction, and Advanced Prompting) method, an innovative approach within the dynamic context generation framework. REAP guides LLMs through reflection on the query, deconstructing it into manageable components, and generating relevant context to enhance the solution process. We evaluated REAP using a dataset designed to expose LLM limitations, comparing zero-shot prompting with REAP-enhanced prompts across six state-of-the-art models: OpenAI's o1-preview, o1-mini, GPT-4o, GPT-4o-mini, Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro, and Claude 3.5 Sonnet. The results demonstrate notable performance gains, with o1-mini improving by 40.97%, GPT-4o by 66.26%, and GPT-4o-mini by 112.93%. Despite the already strong baseline performance of OpenAI's o1-preview, modest gains were observed. Beyond performance improvements, REAP offers a cost-effective solution; for example, GPT-4o-mini, which is approximately 100 times cheaper than o1-preview, delivered competitive results. REAP also improves the clarity of model outputs, making it easier for humans to understand the reasoning behind the results and simplifying the process of identifying and addressing any issues. These findings demonstrate REAP's potential to greatly improve the capabilities of LLMs, providing both better performance and increased cost-efficiency across a wide range of applications.

From Google Gemini to OpenAI Q* (Q-Star): A Survey of Reshaping the Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) Research Landscape

This comprehensive survey explored the evolving landscape of generative Artificial Intelligence (AI), with a specific focus on the transformative impacts of Mixture of Experts (MoE), multimodal learning, and the speculated advancements towards Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). It critically examined the current state and future trajectory of generative Artificial Intelligence (AI), exploring how innovations like Google's Gemini and the anticipated OpenAI Q* project are reshaping research priorities and applications across various domains, including an impact analysis on the generative AI research taxonomy. It assessed the computational challenges, scalability, and real-world implications of these technologies while highlighting their potential in driving significant progress in fields like healthcare, finance, and education. It also addressed the emerging academic challenges posed by the proliferation of both AI-themed and AI-generated preprints, examining their impact on the peer-review process and scholarly communication. The study highlighted the importance of incorporating ethical and human-centric methods in AI development, ensuring alignment with societal norms and welfare, and outlined a strategy for future AI research that focuses on a balanced and conscientious use of MoE, multimodality, and AGI in generative AI.

ResumeFlow: An LLM-facilitated Pipeline for Personalized Resume Generation and Refinement

Crafting the ideal, job-specific resume is a challenging task for many job applicants, especially for early-career applicants. While it is highly recommended that applicants tailor their resume to the specific role they are applying for, manually tailoring resumes to job descriptions and role-specific requirements is often (1) extremely time-consuming, and (2) prone to human errors. Furthermore, performing such a tailoring step at scale while applying to several roles may result in a lack of quality of the edited resumes. To tackle this problem, in this demo paper, we propose ResumeFlow: a Large Language Model (LLM) aided tool that enables an end user to simply provide their detailed resume and the desired job posting, and obtain a personalized resume specifically tailored to that specific job posting in the matter of a few seconds. Our proposed pipeline leverages the language understanding and information extraction capabilities of state-of-the-art LLMs such as OpenAI's GPT-4 and Google's Gemini, in order to (1) extract details from a job description, (2) extract role-specific details from the user-provided resume, and then (3) use these to refine and generate a role-specific resume for the user. Our easy-to-use tool leverages the user-chosen LLM in a completely off-the-shelf manner, thus requiring no fine-tuning. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our tool via a video demo and propose novel task-specific evaluation metrics to control for alignment and hallucination. Our tool is available at https://job-aligned-resume.streamlit.app.

Evaluating Large Language Models on the GMAT: Implications for the Future of Business Education

The rapid evolution of artificial intelligence (AI), especially in the domain of Large Language Models (LLMs) and generative AI, has opened new avenues for application across various fields, yet its role in business education remains underexplored. This study introduces the first benchmark to assess the performance of seven major LLMs, OpenAI's models (GPT-3.5 Turbo, GPT-4, and GPT-4 Turbo), Google's models (PaLM 2, Gemini 1.0 Pro), and Anthropic's models (Claude 2 and Claude 2.1), on the GMAT, which is a key exam in the admission process for graduate business programs. Our analysis shows that most LLMs outperform human candidates, with GPT-4 Turbo not only outperforming the other models but also surpassing the average scores of graduate students at top business schools. Through a case study, this research examines GPT-4 Turbo's ability to explain answers, evaluate responses, identify errors, tailor instructions, and generate alternative scenarios. The latest LLM versions, GPT-4 Turbo, Claude 2.1, and Gemini 1.0 Pro, show marked improvements in reasoning tasks compared to their predecessors, underscoring their potential for complex problem-solving. While AI's promise in education, assessment, and tutoring is clear, challenges remain. Our study not only sheds light on LLMs' academic potential but also emphasizes the need for careful development and application of AI in education. As AI technology advances, it is imperative to establish frameworks and protocols for AI interaction, verify the accuracy of AI-generated content, ensure worldwide access for diverse learners, and create an educational environment where AI supports human expertise. This research sets the stage for further exploration into the responsible use of AI to enrich educational experiences and improve exam preparation and assessment methods.

An In-depth Look at Gemini's Language Abilities

The recently released Google Gemini class of models are the first to comprehensively report results that rival the OpenAI GPT series across a wide variety of tasks. In this paper, we do an in-depth exploration of Gemini's language abilities, making two contributions. First, we provide a third-party, objective comparison of the abilities of the OpenAI GPT and Google Gemini models with reproducible code and fully transparent results. Second, we take a closer look at the results, identifying areas where one of the two model classes excels. We perform this analysis over 10 datasets testing a variety of language abilities, including reasoning, answering knowledge-based questions, solving math problems, translating between languages, generating code, and acting as instruction-following agents. From this analysis, we find that Gemini Pro achieves accuracy that is close but slightly inferior to the corresponding GPT 3.5 Turbo on all tasks that we benchmarked. We further provide explanations for some of this under-performance, including failures in mathematical reasoning with many digits, sensitivity to multiple-choice answer ordering, aggressive content filtering, and others. We also identify areas where Gemini demonstrates comparably high performance, including generation into non-English languages, and handling longer and more complex reasoning chains. Code and data for reproduction can be found at https://github.com/neulab/gemini-benchmark

ShortcutsBench: A Large-Scale Real-world Benchmark for API-based Agents

Recent advancements in integrating large language models (LLMs) with application programming interfaces (APIs) have gained significant interest in both academia and industry. These API-based agents, leveraging the strong autonomy and planning capabilities of LLMs, can efficiently solve problems requiring multi-step actions. However, their ability to handle multi-dimensional difficulty levels, diverse task types, and real-world demands through APIs remains unknown. In this paper, we introduce ShortcutsBench, a large-scale benchmark for the comprehensive evaluation of API-based agents in solving tasks with varying levels of difficulty, diverse task types, and real-world demands. ShortcutsBench includes a wealth of real APIs from Apple Inc.'s operating systems, refined user queries from shortcuts, human-annotated high-quality action sequences from shortcut developers, and accurate parameter filling values about primitive parameter types, enum parameter types, outputs from previous actions, and parameters that need to request necessary information from the system or user. Our extensive evaluation of agents built with 5 leading open-source (size >= 57B) and 4 closed-source LLMs (e.g. Gemini-1.5-Pro and GPT-3.5) reveals significant limitations in handling complex queries related to API selection, parameter filling, and requesting necessary information from systems and users. These findings highlight the challenges that API-based agents face in effectively fulfilling real and complex user queries. All datasets, code, and experimental results will be available at https://github.com/eachsheep/shortcutsbench.

Visual Prompting with Iterative Refinement for Design Critique Generation

Feedback is crucial for every design process, such as user interface (UI) design, and automating design critiques can significantly improve the efficiency of the design workflow. Although existing multimodal large language models (LLMs) excel in many tasks, they often struggle with generating high-quality design critiques -- a complex task that requires producing detailed design comments that are visually grounded in a given design's image. Building on recent advancements in iterative refinement of text output and visual prompting methods, we propose an iterative visual prompting approach for UI critique that takes an input UI screenshot and design guidelines and generates a list of design comments, along with corresponding bounding boxes that map each comment to a specific region in the screenshot. The entire process is driven completely by LLMs, which iteratively refine both the text output and bounding boxes using few-shot samples tailored for each step. We evaluated our approach using Gemini-1.5-pro and GPT-4o, and found that human experts generally preferred the design critiques generated by our pipeline over those by the baseline, with the pipeline reducing the gap from human performance by 50% for one rating metric. To assess the generalizability of our approach to other multimodal tasks, we applied our pipeline to open-vocabulary object and attribute detection, and experiments showed that our method also outperformed the baseline.

Potential of Multimodal Large Language Models for Data Mining of Medical Images and Free-text Reports

Medical images and radiology reports are crucial for diagnosing medical conditions, highlighting the importance of quantitative analysis for clinical decision-making. However, the diversity and cross-source heterogeneity of these data challenge the generalizability of current data-mining methods. Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have recently transformed many domains, significantly affecting the medical field. Notably, Gemini-Vision-series (Gemini) and GPT-4-series (GPT-4) models have epitomized a paradigm shift in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) for computer vision, showcasing their potential in the biomedical domain. In this study, we evaluated the performance of the Gemini, GPT-4, and 4 popular large models for an exhaustive evaluation across 14 medical imaging datasets, including 5 medical imaging categories (dermatology, radiology, dentistry, ophthalmology, and endoscopy), and 3 radiology report datasets. The investigated tasks encompass disease classification, lesion segmentation, anatomical localization, disease diagnosis, report generation, and lesion detection. Our experimental results demonstrated that Gemini-series models excelled in report generation and lesion detection but faces challenges in disease classification and anatomical localization. Conversely, GPT-series models exhibited proficiency in lesion segmentation and anatomical localization but encountered difficulties in disease diagnosis and lesion detection. Additionally, both the Gemini series and GPT series contain models that have demonstrated commendable generation efficiency. While both models hold promise in reducing physician workload, alleviating pressure on limited healthcare resources, and fostering collaboration between clinical practitioners and artificial intelligence technologies, substantial enhancements and comprehensive validations remain imperative before clinical deployment.

Advancing Multimodal Medical Capabilities of Gemini

Many clinical tasks require an understanding of specialized data, such as medical images and genomics, which is not typically found in general-purpose large multimodal models. Building upon Gemini's multimodal models, we develop several models within the new Med-Gemini family that inherit core capabilities of Gemini and are optimized for medical use via fine-tuning with 2D and 3D radiology, histopathology, ophthalmology, dermatology and genomic data. Med-Gemini-2D sets a new standard for AI-based chest X-ray (CXR) report generation based on expert evaluation, exceeding previous best results across two separate datasets by an absolute margin of 1% and 12%, where 57% and 96% of AI reports on normal cases, and 43% and 65% on abnormal cases, are evaluated as "equivalent or better" than the original radiologists' reports. We demonstrate the first ever large multimodal model-based report generation for 3D computed tomography (CT) volumes using Med-Gemini-3D, with 53% of AI reports considered clinically acceptable, although additional research is needed to meet expert radiologist reporting quality. Beyond report generation, Med-Gemini-2D surpasses the previous best performance in CXR visual question answering (VQA) and performs well in CXR classification and radiology VQA, exceeding SoTA or baselines on 17 of 20 tasks. In histopathology, ophthalmology, and dermatology image classification, Med-Gemini-2D surpasses baselines across 18 out of 20 tasks and approaches task-specific model performance. Beyond imaging, Med-Gemini-Polygenic outperforms the standard linear polygenic risk score-based approach for disease risk prediction and generalizes to genetically correlated diseases for which it has never been trained. Although further development and evaluation are necessary in the safety-critical medical domain, our results highlight the potential of Med-Gemini across a wide range of medical tasks.

MMMT-IF: A Challenging Multimodal Multi-Turn Instruction Following Benchmark

Evaluating instruction following capabilities for multimodal, multi-turn dialogue is challenging. With potentially multiple instructions in the input model context, the task is time-consuming for human raters and we show LLM based judges are biased towards answers from the same model. We propose MMMT-IF, an image based multi-turn Q&A evaluation set with added global instructions between questions, constraining the answer format. This challenges models to retrieve instructions dispersed across long dialogues and reason under instruction constraints. All instructions are objectively verifiable through code execution. We introduce the Programmatic Instruction Following (PIF) metric to measure the fraction of the instructions that are correctly followed while performing a reasoning task. The PIF-N-K set of metrics further evaluates robustness by measuring the fraction of samples in a corpus where, for each sample, at least K out of N generated model responses achieve a PIF score of one. The PIF metric aligns with human instruction following ratings, showing 60 percent correlation. Experiments show Gemini 1.5 Pro, GPT-4o, and Claude 3.5 Sonnet, have a PIF metric that drops from 0.81 on average at turn 1 across the models, to 0.64 at turn 20. Across all turns, when each response is repeated 4 times (PIF-4-4), GPT-4o and Gemini successfully follow all instructions only 11% of the time. When all the instructions are also appended to the end of the model input context, the PIF metric improves by 22.3 points on average, showing that the challenge with the task lies not only in following the instructions, but also in retrieving the instructions spread out in the model context. We plan to open source the MMMT-IF dataset and metric computation code.

Improve Mathematical Reasoning in Language Models by Automated Process Supervision

Complex multi-step reasoning tasks, such as solving mathematical problems or generating code, remain a significant hurdle for even the most advanced large language models (LLMs). Verifying LLM outputs with an Outcome Reward Model (ORM) is a standard inference-time technique aimed at enhancing the reasoning performance of LLMs. However, this still proves insufficient for reasoning tasks with a lengthy or multi-hop reasoning chain, where the intermediate outcomes are neither properly rewarded nor penalized. Process supervision addresses this limitation by assigning intermediate rewards during the reasoning process. To date, the methods used to collect process supervision data have relied on either human annotation or per-step Monte Carlo estimation, both prohibitively expensive to scale, thus hindering the broad application of this technique. In response to this challenge, we propose a novel divide-and-conquer style Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) algorithm named OmegaPRM for the efficient collection of high-quality process supervision data. This algorithm swiftly identifies the first error in the Chain of Thought (CoT) with binary search and balances the positive and negative examples, thereby ensuring both efficiency and quality. As a result, we are able to collect over 1.5 million process supervision annotations to train a Process Reward Model (PRM). Utilizing this fully automated process supervision alongside the weighted self-consistency algorithm, we have enhanced the instruction tuned Gemini Pro model's math reasoning performance, achieving a 69.4\% success rate on the MATH benchmark, a 36\% relative improvement from the 51\% base model performance. Additionally, the entire process operates without any human intervention, making our method both financially and computationally cost-effective compared to existing methods.

Guardians of the Agentic System: Preventing Many Shots Jailbreak with Agentic System

The autonomous AI agents using large language models can create undeniable values in all span of the society but they face security threats from adversaries that warrants immediate protective solutions because trust and safety issues arise. Considering the many-shot jailbreaking and deceptive alignment as some of the main advanced attacks, that cannot be mitigated by the static guardrails used during the supervised training, points out a crucial research priority for real world robustness. The combination of static guardrails in dynamic multi-agent system fails to defend against those attacks. We intend to enhance security for LLM-based agents through the development of new evaluation frameworks which identify and counter threats for safe operational deployment. Our work uses three examination methods to detect rogue agents through a Reverse Turing Test and analyze deceptive alignment through multi-agent simulations and develops an anti-jailbreaking system by testing it with GEMINI 1.5 pro and llama-3.3-70B, deepseek r1 models using tool-mediated adversarial scenarios. The detection capabilities are strong such as 94\% accuracy for GEMINI 1.5 pro yet the system suffers persistent vulnerabilities when under long attacks as prompt length increases attack success rates (ASR) and diversity metrics become ineffective in prediction while revealing multiple complex system faults. The findings demonstrate the necessity of adopting flexible security systems based on active monitoring that can be performed by the agents themselves together with adaptable interventions by system admin as the current models can create vulnerabilities that can lead to the unreliable and vulnerable system. So, in our work, we try to address such situations and propose a comprehensive framework to counteract the security issues.

FineTuneBench: How well do commercial fine-tuning APIs infuse knowledge into LLMs?

There is great interest in fine-tuning frontier large language models (LLMs) to inject new information and update existing knowledge. While commercial LLM fine-tuning APIs from providers such as OpenAI and Google promise flexible adaptation for various applications, the efficacy of fine-tuning remains unclear. In this study, we introduce FineTuneBench, an evaluation framework and dataset for understanding how well commercial fine-tuning APIs can successfully learn new and updated knowledge. We analyze five frontier LLMs with commercially available fine-tuning APIs, including GPT-4o and Gemini 1.5 Pro, on their effectiveness in two settings: (1) ingesting novel information, such as recent news events and new people profiles, and (2) updating existing knowledge, such as updated medical guidelines and code frameworks. Our results reveal substantial shortcomings in all the models' abilities to effectively learn new information through fine-tuning, with an average generalization accuracy of 37% across all models. When updating existing knowledge, such as incorporating medical guideline updates, commercial fine-tuning APIs show even more limited capability (average generalization accuracy of 19%). Overall, fine-tuning GPT-4o mini is the most effective for infusing new knowledge and updating knowledge, followed by GPT-3.5 Turbo and GPT-4o. The fine-tuning APIs for Gemini 1.5 Flesh and Gemini 1.5 Pro are unable to learn new knowledge or update existing knowledge. These findings underscore a major shortcoming in using current commercial fine-tuning services to achieve reliable knowledge infusion in common scenarios. We open source the FineTuneBench dataset at https://github.com/kevinwu23/StanfordFineTuneBench.

Training Language Models to Self-Correct via Reinforcement Learning

Self-correction is a highly desirable capability of large language models (LLMs), yet it has consistently been found to be largely ineffective in modern LLMs. Existing approaches for training self-correction either require multiple models or rely on a more capable model or other forms of supervision. To this end, we develop a multi-turn online reinforcement learning (RL) approach, SCoRe, that significantly improves an LLM's self-correction ability using entirely self-generated data. To build SCoRe, we first show that variants of supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on offline model-generated correction traces are insufficient for instilling self-correction behavior. In particular, we observe that training via SFT either suffers from a distribution mismatch between the training data and the model's own responses or implicitly prefers only a certain mode of correction behavior that is often not effective at test time. SCoRe addresses these challenges by training under the model's own distribution of self-generated correction traces and using appropriate regularization to steer the learning process into learning a self-correction strategy that is effective at test time as opposed to simply fitting high-reward responses for a given prompt. This regularization prescribes running a first phase of RL on a base model to generate a policy initialization that is less susceptible to collapse and then using a reward bonus to amplify self-correction during training. When applied to Gemini 1.0 Pro and 1.5 Flash models, we find that SCoRe achieves state-of-the-art self-correction performance, improving the base models' self-correction by 15.6% and 9.1% respectively on the MATH and HumanEval benchmarks.

Towards a Personal Health Large Language Model

In health, most large language model (LLM) research has focused on clinical tasks. However, mobile and wearable devices, which are rarely integrated into such tasks, provide rich, longitudinal data for personal health monitoring. Here we present Personal Health Large Language Model (PH-LLM), fine-tuned from Gemini for understanding and reasoning over numerical time-series personal health data. We created and curated three datasets that test 1) production of personalized insights and recommendations from sleep patterns, physical activity, and physiological responses, 2) expert domain knowledge, and 3) prediction of self-reported sleep outcomes. For the first task we designed 857 case studies in collaboration with domain experts to assess real-world scenarios in sleep and fitness. Through comprehensive evaluation of domain-specific rubrics, we observed that Gemini Ultra 1.0 and PH-LLM are not statistically different from expert performance in fitness and, while experts remain superior for sleep, fine-tuning PH-LLM provided significant improvements in using relevant domain knowledge and personalizing information for sleep insights. We evaluated PH-LLM domain knowledge using multiple choice sleep medicine and fitness examinations. PH-LLM achieved 79% on sleep and 88% on fitness, exceeding average scores from a sample of human experts. Finally, we trained PH-LLM to predict self-reported sleep quality outcomes from textual and multimodal encoding representations of wearable data, and demonstrate that multimodal encoding is required to match performance of specialized discriminative models. Although further development and evaluation are necessary in the safety-critical personal health domain, these results demonstrate both the broad knowledge and capabilities of Gemini models and the benefit of contextualizing physiological data for personal health applications as done with PH-LLM.

MapEval: A Map-Based Evaluation of Geo-Spatial Reasoning in Foundation Models

Recent advancements in foundation models have enhanced AI systems' capabilities in autonomous tool usage and reasoning. However, their ability in location or map-based reasoning - which improves daily life by optimizing navigation, facilitating resource discovery, and streamlining logistics - has not been systematically studied. To bridge this gap, we introduce MapEval, a benchmark designed to assess diverse and complex map-based user queries with geo-spatial reasoning. MapEval features three task types (textual, API-based, and visual) that require collecting world information via map tools, processing heterogeneous geo-spatial contexts (e.g., named entities, travel distances, user reviews or ratings, images), and compositional reasoning, which all state-of-the-art foundation models find challenging. Comprising 700 unique multiple-choice questions about locations across 180 cities and 54 countries, MapEval evaluates foundation models' ability to handle spatial relationships, map infographics, travel planning, and navigation challenges. Using MapEval, we conducted a comprehensive evaluation of 28 prominent foundation models. While no single model excelled across all tasks, Claude-3.5-Sonnet, GPT-4o, and Gemini-1.5-Pro achieved competitive performance overall. However, substantial performance gaps emerged, particularly in MapEval, where agents with Claude-3.5-Sonnet outperformed GPT-4o and Gemini-1.5-Pro by 16% and 21%, respectively, and the gaps became even more amplified when compared to open-source LLMs. Our detailed analyses provide insights into the strengths and weaknesses of current models, though all models still fall short of human performance by more than 20% on average, struggling with complex map images and rigorous geo-spatial reasoning. This gap highlights MapEval's critical role in advancing general-purpose foundation models with stronger geo-spatial understanding.

Euclid: Supercharging Multimodal LLMs with Synthetic High-Fidelity Visual Descriptions

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have made rapid progress in recent years, yet continue to struggle with low-level visual perception (LLVP) -- particularly the ability to accurately describe the geometric details of an image. This capability is crucial for applications in areas such as robotics, medical image analysis, and manufacturing. In this paper, we first introduce Geoperception, a benchmark designed to evaluate an MLLM's ability to accurately transcribe 2D geometric information from an image. Using this benchmark, we demonstrate the limitations of leading MLLMs, and then conduct a comprehensive empirical study to explore strategies for improving their performance on geometric tasks. Our findings highlight the benefits of certain model architectures, training techniques, and data strategies, including the use of high-fidelity synthetic data and multi-stage training with a data curriculum. Notably, we find that a data curriculum enables models to learn challenging geometry understanding tasks which they fail to learn from scratch. Leveraging these insights, we develop Euclid, a family of models specifically optimized for strong low-level geometric perception. Although purely trained on synthetic multimodal data, Euclid shows strong generalization ability to novel geometry shapes. For instance, Euclid outperforms the best closed-source model, Gemini-1.5-Pro, by up to 58.56% on certain Geoperception benchmark tasks and 10.65% on average across all tasks.

AI Predicts AGI: Leveraging AGI Forecasting and Peer Review to Explore LLMs' Complex Reasoning Capabilities

We tasked 16 state-of-the-art large language models (LLMs) with estimating the likelihood of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) emerging by 2030. To assess the quality of these forecasts, we implemented an automated peer review process (LLM-PR). The LLMs' estimates varied widely, ranging from 3% (Reka- Core) to 47.6% (GPT-4o), with a median of 12.5%. These estimates closely align with a recent expert survey that projected a 10% likelihood of AGI by 2027, underscoring the relevance of LLMs in forecasting complex, speculative scenarios. The LLM-PR process demonstrated strong reliability, evidenced by a high Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC = 0.79), reflecting notable consistency in scoring across the models. Among the models, Pplx-70b-online emerged as the top performer, while Gemini-1.5-pro-api ranked the lowest. A cross-comparison with external benchmarks, such as LMSYS Chatbot Arena, revealed that LLM rankings remained consistent across different evaluation methods, suggesting that existing benchmarks may not encapsulate some of the skills relevant for AGI prediction. We further explored the use of weighting schemes based on external benchmarks, optimizing the alignment of LLMs' predictions with human expert forecasts. This analysis led to the development of a new, 'AGI benchmark' designed to highlight performance differences in AGI-related tasks. Our findings offer insights into LLMs' capabilities in speculative, interdisciplinary forecasting tasks and emphasize the growing need for innovative evaluation frameworks for assessing AI performance in complex, uncertain real-world scenarios.