Building a Safer Maritime Environment Through Multi-Path Long-Term Vessel Trajectory Forecasting

Maritime transportation is paramount in achieving global economic growth, entailing concurrent ecological obligations in sustainability and safeguarding endangered marine species, most notably preserving large whale populations. In this regard, the Automatic Identification System (AIS) data plays a significant role by offering real-time streaming data on vessel movement, allowing enhanced traffic monitoring. This study explores using AIS data to prevent vessel-to-whale collisions by forecasting long-term <PRE_TAG>vessel trajectories</POST_TAG> from engineered AIS data sequences. For such a task, we have developed an <PRE_TAG>encoder-decoder model architecture</POST_TAG> using Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Networks (Bi-LSTM) to predict the next 12 hours of <PRE_TAG>vessel trajectories</POST_TAG> using 1 to 3 hours of AIS data as input. We feed the model with <PRE_TAG>probabilistic features</POST_TAG> engineered from historical AIS data that refer to each trajectory's potential route and destination. The model then predicts the vessel's trajectory, considering these additional features by leveraging <PRE_TAG>convolutional layers</POST_TAG> for spatial feature learning and a <PRE_TAG>position-aware attention mechanism</POST_TAG> that increases the importance of recent timesteps of a sequence during temporal feature learning. The <PRE_TAG>probabilistic features</POST_TAG> have an <PRE_TAG>F1 Score</POST_TAG> of approximately 85% and 75% for each feature type, respectively, demonstrating their effectiveness in augmenting information to the neural network. We test our model on the <PRE_TAG>Gulf of St. Lawrence</POST_TAG>, a region known to be the habitat of North Atlantic Right Whales (NARW). Our model achieved a high <PRE_TAG>R2 score</POST_TAG> of over 98% using various techniques and features. It stands out among other approaches as it can make complex decisions during turnings and path selection. Our study highlights the potential of data engineering and trajectory forecasting models for marine life species preservation.