It is probably the case that John got the football. It is probably not the case that Julius is green. It is probably the case that Bernhard is a lion.
Chances are about even that bernhard is a lion, and John got the football.
Chances are about even that bernhard is a lion, and John got the football.
There is almost no chance that bernhard is a lion, and John got the football.
Bernhard is a lion, and John got the football.