There is a better than even chance that Lily is a frog. We believe that Brian is a lion. It is highly unlikely that Fred went to the office.
We believe that fred went to the office, or Brian is a lion.
We believe that fred went to the office, or Brian is a lion.
It is probably not the case that fred went to the office, or Brian is a lion.
Fred went to the office, or Brian is a lion.