context: It is almost certain that Julius is a rhino. It is highly unlikely that Brian is a frog. There is a very good chance that Fred moved to the office.
hypothesis: We believe that either 'Fred moved to the office' or 'Brian is a frog' but not both.
valid_hypothesis: We believe that either 'Fred moved to the office' or 'Brian is a frog' but not both.
invalid_hypothesis: There is almost no chance that either 'Fred moved to the office' or 'Brian is a frog' but not both.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.95::factA.
    0.05::factB.
    0.8::factC.
    
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-xor(factC,factB).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: Either 'Fred moved to the office' or 'Brian is a frog' but not both.