context: It is almost certain that Daniel got the football. It is likely that Jason is tired. Chances are about even that Greg is white. We believe that if 'Greg is white' or 'Daniel got the football' or both then Lily is yellow. It is highly unlikely that if either 'Jason is tired' or 'Daniel got the football' but not both then Mary went to the bedroom. It is probably the case that if 'Greg is white' or 'Daniel got the football' or both then Julius is a lion.
hypothesis: Chances are slight that 'Julius is a lion and Daniel got the football'.
valid_hypothesis: It is probably the case that 'Julius is a lion and Daniel got the football'.
invalid_hypothesis: Chances are slight that 'Julius is a lion and Daniel got the football'.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.95::factA.
    0.7::factB.
    0.5::factC.
    %hop1
    0.75::factX:-or(factC,factA).
    0.05::factY:-xor(factB,factA).
    0.7::factZ:-or(factC,factA).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-and(factZ,factA).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: 'Julius is a lion and Daniel got the football'.