context: It is almost certain that John moved to the garden. It is unlikely that Bernhard is a swan. There is little chance that Lily is gray. Chances are slight that if 'Lily is gray' or 'Bernhard is a swan' or both then Bill went to the bedroom. We doubt that if 'John moved to the garden' or 'Lily is gray' or both then Jeff discarded the milk. There is a very good chance that if 'Lily is gray' or 'John moved to the garden' or both then Yann is hungry.
hypothesis: It is likely that 'Jeff discarded the milk and Lily is gray'.
valid_hypothesis: There is almost no chance that 'Jeff discarded the milk and Lily is gray'.
invalid_hypothesis: It is likely that 'Jeff discarded the milk and Lily is gray'.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.95::factA.
    0.2::factB.
    0.1::factC.
    %hop1
    0.1::factX:-or(factC,factB).
    0.2::factY:-or(factA,factC).
    0.8::factZ:-or(factC,factA).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-and(factY,factC).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: 'Jeff discarded the milk and Lily is gray'.