context: There is almost no chance that Jeff went to the bedroom. There is almost no chance that Brian is yellow. It is unlikely that Bernhard is a rhino. It is probably not the case that if 'Brian is yellow and Bernhard is a rhino' then Bill moved to the office. There is a very good chance that if 'Jeff went to the bedroom and Bernhard is a rhino' then Julius is a lion. It is probable that if either 'Brian is yellow' or 'Jeff went to the bedroom' but not both then Lily is white.
hypothesis: There is almost no chance that 'Jeff went to the bedroom' or 'Lily is white' or both.
valid_hypothesis: There is almost no chance that 'Jeff went to the bedroom' or 'Lily is white' or both.
invalid_hypothesis: It is likely that 'Jeff went to the bedroom' or 'Lily is white' or both.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.02::factA.
    0.02::factB.
    0.2::factC.
    %hop1
    0.25::factX:-and(factB,factC).
    0.8::factY:-and(factA,factC).
    0.7::factZ:-xor(factB,factA).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-or(factA,factZ).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: 'Jeff went to the bedroom' or 'Lily is white' or both.