context: It is improbable that Lily is green. It is probable that John moved to the garden. Chances are slight that Bernhard is a lion. It is almost certain that if 'Lily is green and Bernhard is a lion' then Julius is gray. It is certain that if 'Bernhard is a lion' or 'Lily is green' or both then Daniel took the apple. It is probably not the case that if 'Bernhard is a lion' or 'Lily is green' or both then Mary went to the office.
hypothesis: It is almost certain that either 'Julius is gray' or 'Daniel took the apple' but not both.
valid_hypothesis: We doubt that either 'Julius is gray' or 'Daniel took the apple' but not both.
invalid_hypothesis: It is almost certain that either 'Julius is gray' or 'Daniel took the apple' but not both.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.1::factA.
    0.7::factB.
    0.1::factC.
    %hop1
    0.95::factX:-and(factA,factC).
    1.0::factY:-or(factC,factA).
    0.25::factZ:-or(factC,factA).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-xor(factX,factY).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: Either 'Julius is gray' or 'Daniel took the apple' but not both.