context: It is almost certain that Antoine is thirsty. It is impossible that Lily is a lion. It is probably the case that Jason is tired. There is a very good chance that if either 'Lily is a lion' or 'Jason is tired' but not both then Daniel put down the milk. It is unlikely that if either 'Jason is tired' or 'Antoine is thirsty' but not both then Mary left the football. We believe that if 'Lily is a lion' or 'Jason is tired' or both then Greg is a rhino.
hypothesis: Chances are slight that either 'Jason is tired' or 'Daniel put down the milk' but not both.
valid_hypothesis: Chances are slight that either 'Jason is tired' or 'Daniel put down the milk' but not both.
invalid_hypothesis: It is highly likely that either 'Jason is tired' or 'Daniel put down the milk' but not both.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.95::factA.
    0.0::factB.
    0.7::factC.
    %hop1
    0.8::factX:-xor(factB,factC).
    0.2::factY:-xor(factC,factA).
    0.75::factZ:-or(factB,factC).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-xor(factC,factX).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: Either 'Jason is tired' or 'Daniel put down the milk' but not both.