context: It is probably not the case that Bill moved to the office. It is likely that Bernhard is white. We believe that Mary dropped the milk. It is highly likely that if either 'Bernhard is white' or 'Mary dropped the milk' but not both then Brian is yellow. There is a better than even chance that if 'Mary dropped the milk' or 'Bill moved to the office' or both then Lily is white. Chances are slight that if 'Bill moved to the office' or 'Mary dropped the milk' or both then John went to the garden.
hypothesis: Chances are slight that 'Lily is white' or 'Bill moved to the office' or both.
valid_hypothesis: There is a better than even chance that 'Lily is white' or 'Bill moved to the office' or both.
invalid_hypothesis: Chances are slight that 'Lily is white' or 'Bill moved to the office' or both.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.25::factA.
    0.7::factB.
    0.75::factC.
    %hop1
    0.9::factX:-xor(factB,factC).
    0.6::factY:-or(factC,factA).
    0.1::factZ:-or(factA,factC).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-or(factY,factA).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: 'Lily is white' or 'Bill moved to the office' or both.