context: It is probably not the case that Brian is green. Chances are about even that Emily is a wolf. There is a better than even chance that Lily is a rhino. It is probably not the case that if either 'Lily is a rhino' or 'Emily is a wolf' but not both then Mary went to the office. We doubt that if 'Brian is green and Emily is a wolf' then Julius is gray. There is a better than even chance that if either 'Emily is a wolf' or 'Brian is green' but not both then John moved to the office.
hypothesis: It is probably not the case that 'Julius is gray' or 'John moved to the office' or both.
valid_hypothesis: It is probably not the case that 'Julius is gray' or 'John moved to the office' or both.
invalid_hypothesis: It is probable that 'Julius is gray' or 'John moved to the office' or both.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.25::factA.
    0.5::factB.
    0.6::factC.
    %hop1
    0.25::factX:-xor(factC,factB).
    0.2::factY:-and(factA,factB).
    0.6::factZ:-xor(factB,factA).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-or(factY,factZ).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: 'Julius is gray' or 'John moved to the office' or both.