context: It is highly unlikely that Jessica is a cat. Chances are about even that Bernhard is a frog. There is a better than even chance that Mary moved to the office. It is certain that if 'Jessica is a cat' or 'Bernhard is a frog' or both then Daniel took the apple. It is probable that if 'Bernhard is a frog' or 'Jessica is a cat' or both then John got the milk. There is a very good chance that if 'Mary moved to the office and Bernhard is a frog' then Greg is a swan.
hypothesis: There is almost no chance that 'Bernhard is a frog' or 'Daniel took the apple' or both.
valid_hypothesis: Chances are about even that 'Bernhard is a frog' or 'Daniel took the apple' or both.
invalid_hypothesis: There is almost no chance that 'Bernhard is a frog' or 'Daniel took the apple' or both.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.05::factA.
    0.5::factB.
    0.6::factC.
    %hop1
    1.0::factX:-or(factA,factB).
    0.7::factY:-or(factB,factA).
    0.8::factZ:-and(factC,factB).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-or(factB,factX).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: 'Bernhard is a frog' or 'Daniel took the apple' or both.