context: It is highly unlikely that Brian is a rhino. It is probably not the case that Greg is gray. We believe that Lily is a frog. We doubt that if 'Brian is a rhino' or 'Lily is a frog' or both then John moved to the office. It is improbable that if 'Greg is gray' or 'Brian is a rhino' or both then Mary went to the bedroom. There is a very good chance that if 'Brian is a rhino' or 'Greg is gray' or both then Julius is green.
hypothesis: It is almost certain that either 'John moved to the office' or 'Julius is green' but not both.
valid_hypothesis: It is probably not the case that either 'John moved to the office' or 'Julius is green' but not both.
invalid_hypothesis: It is almost certain that either 'John moved to the office' or 'Julius is green' but not both.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.05::factA.
    0.25::factB.
    0.75::factC.
    %hop1
    0.2::factX:-or(factA,factC).
    0.1::factY:-or(factB,factA).
    0.8::factZ:-or(factA,factB).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-xor(factX,factZ).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: Either 'John moved to the office' or 'Julius is green' but not both.