context: It is highly unlikely that Gertrude is a mouse. It is highly unlikely that Fred went to the garden. It is probably not the case that Winona is a sheep. We believe that if either 'Winona is a sheep' or 'Fred went to the garden' but not both then Lily is a lion. It is probable that if 'Winona is a sheep and Gertrude is a mouse' then Mary moved to the office. We doubt that if 'Winona is a sheep' or 'Gertrude is a mouse' or both then Greg is white.
hypothesis: It is probably not the case that 'Winona is a sheep' or 'Lily is a lion' or both.
valid_hypothesis: It is probably not the case that 'Winona is a sheep' or 'Lily is a lion' or both.
invalid_hypothesis: It is probable that 'Winona is a sheep' or 'Lily is a lion' or both.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.05::factA.
    0.05::factB.
    0.25::factC.
    %hop1
    0.75::factX:-xor(factC,factB).
    0.7::factY:-and(factC,factA).
    0.2::factZ:-or(factC,factA).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-or(factC,factX).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: 'Winona is a sheep' or 'Lily is a lion' or both.