context: It is improbable that Greg is a swan. It is probably not the case that Sumit is thirsty. It is probably the case that Julius is a rhino. It is impossible that if either 'Greg is a swan' or 'Sumit is thirsty' but not both then Lily is a frog. It is almost certain that if either 'Sumit is thirsty' or 'Greg is a swan' but not both then Jessica is a mouse. It is almost certain that if 'Greg is a swan' or 'Julius is a rhino' or both then Fred is in the office.
hypothesis: There is almost no chance that 'Jessica is a mouse' or 'Julius is a rhino' or both.
valid_hypothesis: There is a very good chance that 'Jessica is a mouse' or 'Julius is a rhino' or both.
invalid_hypothesis: There is almost no chance that 'Jessica is a mouse' or 'Julius is a rhino' or both.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.1::factA.
    0.25::factB.
    0.7::factC.
    %hop1
    0.0::factX:-xor(factA,factB).
    0.95::factY:-xor(factB,factA).
    0.95::factZ:-or(factA,factC).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-or(factY,factC).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: 'Jessica is a mouse' or 'Julius is a rhino' or both.