context: It is almost certain that Winona is a mouse. It is certain that Bernhard is yellow. There is a better than even chance that Lily is a frog. Chances are slight that if 'Winona is a mouse and Lily is a frog' then Julius is white. It is unlikely that if 'Winona is a mouse' or 'Lily is a frog' or both then Mary went to the office. It is highly likely that if 'Lily is a frog and Winona is a mouse' then Sandra dropped the milk.
hypothesis: It is almost certain that 'Winona is a mouse and Bernhard is yellow'.
valid_hypothesis: It is almost certain that 'Winona is a mouse and Bernhard is yellow'.
invalid_hypothesis: We doubt that 'Winona is a mouse and Bernhard is yellow'.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.95::factA.
    1.0::factB.
    0.6::factC.
    %hop1
    0.1::factX:-and(factA,factC).
    0.2::factY:-or(factA,factC).
    0.9::factZ:-and(factC,factA).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-and(factA,factB).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: 'Winona is a mouse and Bernhard is yellow'.