context: It is highly unlikely that Daniel got the apple. It is highly likely that Sandra left the milk. There is little chance that Julius is a frog. It is probably not the case that if either 'Julius is a frog' or 'Sandra left the milk' but not both then John moved to the garden. Chances are about even that if 'Sandra left the milk and Julius is a frog' then Greg is white. Chances are slight that if either 'Julius is a frog' or 'Sandra left the milk' but not both then Mary grabbed the milk.
hypothesis: It is likely that 'John moved to the garden and Daniel got the apple'.
valid_hypothesis: There is almost no chance that 'John moved to the garden and Daniel got the apple'.
invalid_hypothesis: It is likely that 'John moved to the garden and Daniel got the apple'.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.05::factA.
    0.9::factB.
    0.1::factC.
    %hop1
    0.25::factX:-xor(factC,factB).
    0.5::factY:-and(factB,factC).
    0.1::factZ:-xor(factC,factB).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-and(factX,factA).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: 'John moved to the garden and Daniel got the apple'.