context: It is probably not the case that Winona is a sheep. It is highly unlikely that John left the football. It is probable that Lily is a swan. It is almost certain that if 'Lily is a swan' or 'Winona is a sheep' or both then Greg is white. It is highly likely that if 'Lily is a swan and Winona is a sheep' then Jessica is a mouse. It is improbable that if 'Lily is a swan' or 'Winona is a sheep' or both then Mary moved to the garden.
hypothesis: It is likely that either 'Mary moved to the garden' or 'Jessica is a mouse' but not both.
valid_hypothesis: It is unlikely that either 'Mary moved to the garden' or 'Jessica is a mouse' but not both.
invalid_hypothesis: It is likely that either 'Mary moved to the garden' or 'Jessica is a mouse' but not both.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.25::factA.
    0.05::factB.
    0.7::factC.
    %hop1
    0.95::factX:-or(factC,factA).
    0.9::factY:-and(factC,factA).
    0.1::factZ:-or(factC,factA).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-xor(factZ,factY).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: Either 'Mary moved to the garden' or 'Jessica is a mouse' but not both.