context: There is almost no chance that Emily is a mouse. It is almost certain that Daniel took the apple. It is probably not the case that Brian is yellow. It is highly likely that if 'Brian is yellow and Emily is a mouse' then John moved to the garden. It is highly likely that if either 'Emily is a mouse' or 'Brian is yellow' but not both then Julius is yellow. There is almost no chance that if either 'Daniel took the apple' or 'Emily is a mouse' but not both then Bernhard is a frog.
hypothesis: It is probable that 'Julius is yellow' or 'Emily is a mouse' or both.
valid_hypothesis: It is probably not the case that 'Julius is yellow' or 'Emily is a mouse' or both.
invalid_hypothesis: It is probable that 'Julius is yellow' or 'Emily is a mouse' or both.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.02::factA.
    0.95::factB.
    0.25::factC.
    %hop1
    0.9::factX:-and(factC,factA).
    0.9::factY:-xor(factA,factC).
    0.02::factZ:-xor(factB,factA).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-or(factY,factA).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: 'Julius is yellow' or 'Emily is a mouse' or both.