context: Chances are slight that Antoine is bored. It is certain that Winona is a mouse. There is almost no chance that Bernhard is yellow. It is improbable that if either 'Bernhard is yellow' or 'Winona is a mouse' but not both then Greg is a lion. It is likely that if either 'Winona is a mouse' or 'Antoine is bored' but not both then Bill moved to the office. It is improbable that if either 'Antoine is bored' or 'Winona is a mouse' but not both then Julius is a swan.
hypothesis: There is almost no chance that 'Winona is a mouse' or 'Bill moved to the office' or both.
valid_hypothesis: It is certain that 'Winona is a mouse' or 'Bill moved to the office' or both.
invalid_hypothesis: There is almost no chance that 'Winona is a mouse' or 'Bill moved to the office' or both.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.1::factA.
    1.0::factB.
    0.02::factC.
    %hop1
    0.1::factX:-xor(factC,factB).
    0.7::factY:-xor(factB,factA).
    0.1::factZ:-xor(factA,factB).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-or(factB,factY).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: 'Winona is a mouse' or 'Bill moved to the office' or both.