context: There is a very good chance that Jeff went to the bedroom. It is probably not the case that Bill moved to the office. It is almost certain that Bernhard is green. We doubt that if 'Bernhard is green and Jeff went to the bedroom' then John put down the apple. We doubt that if either 'Bill moved to the office' or 'Jeff went to the bedroom' but not both then Brian is a lion. It is almost certain that if 'Bill moved to the office and Jeff went to the bedroom' then Mary left the apple.
hypothesis: There is a better than even chance that either 'Jeff went to the bedroom' or 'Mary left the apple' but not both.
valid_hypothesis: There is a better than even chance that either 'Jeff went to the bedroom' or 'Mary left the apple' but not both.
invalid_hypothesis: There is almost no chance that either 'Jeff went to the bedroom' or 'Mary left the apple' but not both.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.8::factA.
    0.25::factB.
    0.95::factC.
    %hop1
    0.2::factX:-and(factC,factA).
    0.2::factY:-xor(factB,factA).
    0.95::factZ:-and(factB,factA).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-xor(factA,factZ).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: Either 'Jeff went to the bedroom' or 'Mary left the apple' but not both.