context: It is probably the case that John grabbed the milk. There is little chance that Lily is a swan. Chances are slight that Mary dropped the apple. We doubt that if 'Mary dropped the apple' or 'John grabbed the milk' or both then Antoine is hungry. There is almost no chance that if 'Lily is a swan' or 'Mary dropped the apple' or both then Jeff went to the bedroom. It is certain that if 'Mary dropped the apple' or 'John grabbed the milk' or both then Brian is a frog.
hypothesis: There is almost no chance that 'Mary dropped the apple and Antoine is hungry'.
valid_hypothesis: There is almost no chance that 'Mary dropped the apple and Antoine is hungry'.
invalid_hypothesis: We believe that 'Mary dropped the apple and Antoine is hungry'.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.7::factA.
    0.1::factB.
    0.1::factC.
    %hop1
    0.2::factX:-or(factC,factA).
    0.02::factY:-or(factB,factC).
    1.0::factZ:-or(factC,factA).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-and(factC,factX).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: 'Mary dropped the apple and Antoine is hungry'.