context: It is almost certain that Sandra got the milk. It is almost certain that Winona is a wolf. There is almost no chance that John put down the apple. It is certain that if 'Winona is a wolf and John put down the apple' then Greg is green. It is almost certain that if either 'Winona is a wolf' or 'Sandra got the milk' but not both then Julius is a rhino. It is impossible that if 'John put down the apple' or 'Winona is a wolf' or both then Mary went to the bedroom.
hypothesis: Chances are about even that 'Mary went to the bedroom' or 'John put down the apple' or both.
valid_hypothesis: There is almost no chance that 'Mary went to the bedroom' or 'John put down the apple' or both.
invalid_hypothesis: Chances are about even that 'Mary went to the bedroom' or 'John put down the apple' or both.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.95::factA.
    0.95::factB.
    0.02::factC.
    %hop1
    1.0::factX:-and(factB,factC).
    0.95::factY:-xor(factB,factA).
    0.0::factZ:-or(factC,factB).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-or(factZ,factC).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: 'Mary went to the bedroom' or 'John put down the apple' or both.