context: We doubt that Julius is a swan. It is probably not the case that John discarded the milk. It is highly unlikely that Lily is a lion. Chances are slight that if either Julius is a swan, or Lily is a lion, then Brian is yellow. It is highly unlikely that if John discarded the milk, and Julius is a swan, then Bernhard is gray. There is a better than even chance that if John discarded the milk, and Julius is a swan, then Mary is in the cinema.
hypothesis: It is probably the case that mary is in the cinema, or Lily is a lion.
valid_hypothesis: It is improbable that mary is in the cinema, or Lily is a lion.
invalid_hypothesis: It is probably the case that mary is in the cinema, or Lily is a lion.
hypothesis_assertion: Mary is in the cinema, or Lily is a lion.