context: It is certain that Winona is a cat. It is unlikely that Greg is a rhino. It is probably the case that John took the apple. Chances are slight that if Winona is a cat, and John took the apple, then Lily is a frog. It is highly unlikely that if John took the apple, and Winona is a cat, then Mary went to the garden. There is a very good chance that if either Greg is a rhino, or John took the apple, then Jessica is a wolf.
hypothesis: Chances are about even that jessica is a wolf, and John took the apple.
valid_hypothesis: Chances are about even that jessica is a wolf, and John took the apple.
invalid_hypothesis: There is almost no chance that jessica is a wolf, and John took the apple.
hypothesis_assertion: Jessica is a wolf, and John took the apple.