context: It is probably not the case that Mary moved to the garden. It is probable that John discarded the apple. There is a very good chance that Lily is white. There is a better than even chance that if Mary moved to the garden, or Lily is white, then Greg is a lion. It is almost certain that if Lily is white, and John discarded the apple, then Bill went to the kitchen. We doubt that if John discarded the apple, and Lily is white, then Julius is yellow.
hypothesis: There is a better than even chance that bill went to the kitchen, or Mary moved to the garden.
valid_hypothesis: There is a better than even chance that bill went to the kitchen, or Mary moved to the garden.
invalid_hypothesis: There is almost no chance that bill went to the kitchen, or Mary moved to the garden.
hypothesis_assertion: Bill went to the kitchen, or Mary moved to the garden.