context: Chances are slight that John picked up the apple. It is impossible that Lily is a swan. It is highly unlikely that Julius is white. It is probable that if either Julius is white, or Lily is a swan, then Mary went to the garden. Chances are about even that if either Julius is white, or Lily is a swan, then Bernhard is gray. There is little chance that if Julius is white, and Lily is a swan, then Emily is a mouse.
hypothesis: It is improbable that john picked up the apple, or Julius is white.
valid_hypothesis: It is improbable that john picked up the apple, or Julius is white.
invalid_hypothesis: It is probably the case that john picked up the apple, or Julius is white.
hypothesis_assertion: John picked up the apple, or Julius is white.