context: It is impossible that Winona is a wolf. It is almost certain that Lily is a frog. It is highly unlikely that Mary discarded the milk. Chances are about even that if Winona is a wolf, or Mary discarded the milk, then Emily is a sheep. It is improbable that if either Lily is a frog, or Winona is a wolf, then Bernhard is a swan. There is a better than even chance that if either Winona is a wolf, or Mary discarded the milk, then Julius is a frog.
hypothesis: There is a very good chance that either Julius is a frog, or Emily is a sheep.
valid_hypothesis: There is almost no chance that either Julius is a frog, or Emily is a sheep.
invalid_hypothesis: There is a very good chance that either Julius is a frog, or Emily is a sheep.
hypothesis_assertion: Either Julius is a frog, or Emily is a sheep.