context: Chances are about even that Bernhard is a swan. It is probable that Jeff went to the kitchen. There is a better than even chance that John left the football. Chances are about even that if Jeff went to the kitchen, or John left the football, then Julius is yellow. Chances are about even that if John left the football, and Jeff went to the kitchen, then Greg is a lion. It is probably the case that if Jeff went to the kitchen, or John left the football, then Fred is in the park.
hypothesis: It is unlikely that fred is in the park, or Jeff went to the kitchen.
valid_hypothesis: There is a very good chance that fred is in the park, or Jeff went to the kitchen.
invalid_hypothesis: It is unlikely that fred is in the park, or Jeff went to the kitchen.
hypothesis_assertion: Fred is in the park, or Jeff went to the kitchen.