context: It is almost certain that John got the apple. There is almost no chance that Brian is a lion. Chances are about even that Julius is gray. There is a better than even chance that if John got the apple, and Julius is gray, then Mary went to the hallway. It is improbable that if John got the apple, and Brian is a lion, then Lily is a frog. It is highly unlikely that if Brian is a lion, or John got the apple, then Bernhard is a swan.
hypothesis: It is almost certain that bernhard is a swan, or John got the apple.
valid_hypothesis: It is almost certain that bernhard is a swan, or John got the apple.
invalid_hypothesis: We doubt that bernhard is a swan, or John got the apple.
hypothesis_assertion: Bernhard is a swan, or John got the apple.