context: Chances are about even that John picked up the apple. It is likely that Sandra took the milk. It is improbable that Bill went to the hallway. It is improbable that if Sandra took the milk, and John picked up the apple, then Bernhard is a lion. There is a very good chance that if John picked up the apple, or Bill went to the hallway, then Greg is a lion. Chances are about even that if John picked up the apple, or Bill went to the hallway, then Gertrude is a wolf.
hypothesis: It is probably the case that john picked up the apple, and Bernhard is a lion.
valid_hypothesis: It is highly unlikely that john picked up the apple, and Bernhard is a lion.
invalid_hypothesis: It is probably the case that john picked up the apple, and Bernhard is a lion.
hypothesis_assertion: John picked up the apple, and Bernhard is a lion.