context: We doubt that Greg is a swan. Chances are slight that Jessica is a wolf. It is unlikely that Fred went to the bedroom. It is almost certain that if Jessica is a wolf, or Greg is a swan, then Julius is yellow. There is little chance that if Greg is a swan, and Jessica is a wolf, then Lily is white. It is highly unlikely that if Jessica is a wolf, and Greg is a swan, then Brian is a swan.
hypothesis: It is probably the case that brian is a swan, or Julius is yellow.
valid_hypothesis: It is probably not the case that brian is a swan, or Julius is yellow.
invalid_hypothesis: It is probably the case that brian is a swan, or Julius is yellow.
hypothesis_assertion: Brian is a swan, or Julius is yellow.