context: Chances are slight that Julius is white. It is unlikely that Mary left the apple. We doubt that Jessica is a wolf. It is likely that if Julius is white, or Jessica is a wolf, then Fred went to the bedroom. There is almost no chance that if either Julius is white, or Mary left the apple, then Lily is a swan. Chances are slight that if Mary left the apple, and Julius is white, then Greg is a frog.
hypothesis: Chances are about even that fred went to the bedroom, and Lily is a swan.
valid_hypothesis: It is impossible that fred went to the bedroom, and Lily is a swan.
invalid_hypothesis: Chances are about even that fred went to the bedroom, and Lily is a swan.
hypothesis_assertion: Fred went to the bedroom, and Lily is a swan.