context: It is probable that Mary took the apple. We doubt that Julius is gray. Chances are slight that John put down the milk. Chances are about even that if John put down the milk, and Julius is gray, then Gertrude is a mouse. There is a better than even chance that if Mary took the apple, and Julius is gray, then Fred went to the bedroom. It is impossible that if Mary took the apple, and John put down the milk, then Bernhard is gray.
hypothesis: It is certain that gertrude is a mouse, and Julius is gray.
valid_hypothesis: There is almost no chance that gertrude is a mouse, and Julius is gray.
invalid_hypothesis: It is certain that gertrude is a mouse, and Julius is gray.
hypothesis_assertion: Gertrude is a mouse, and Julius is gray.