context: It is probably the case that John picked up the apple. It is improbable that Brian is a lion. It is probable that Winona is a cat. It is highly likely that if John picked up the apple, and Winona is a cat, then Bill moved to the office. Chances are about even that if either Brian is a lion, or John picked up the apple, then Mary went to the hallway. It is probably not the case that if Winona is a cat, and Brian is a lion, then Bernhard is a swan.
hypothesis: Chances are about even that bernhard is a swan, or Bill moved to the office.
valid_hypothesis: Chances are about even that bernhard is a swan, or Bill moved to the office.
invalid_hypothesis: It is highly unlikely that bernhard is a swan, or Bill moved to the office.
hypothesis_assertion: Bernhard is a swan, or Bill moved to the office.