context: It is probably the case that Julius is yellow. We believe that Brian is a swan. Chances are slight that Lily is a frog. Chances are slight that if Brian is a swan, or Julius is yellow, then John took the apple. We believe that if Brian is a swan, or Julius is yellow, then Mary moved to the garden. It is likely that if Lily is a frog, and Julius is yellow, then Jessica is a mouse.
hypothesis: There is a better than even chance that either Mary moved to the garden, or John took the apple.
valid_hypothesis: There is a better than even chance that either Mary moved to the garden, or John took the apple.
invalid_hypothesis: There is almost no chance that either Mary moved to the garden, or John took the apple.
hypothesis_assertion: Either Mary moved to the garden, or John took the apple.