context: There is a better than even chance that Bernhard is a lion. Chances are about even that John dropped the milk. We doubt that Lily is a frog. Chances are about even that if John dropped the milk, and Bernhard is a lion, then Mary moved to the office. It is probably the case that if Bernhard is a lion, or Lily is a frog, then Bill is in the kitchen. Chances are about even that if Lily is a frog, or John dropped the milk, then Brian is a swan.
hypothesis: It is certain that either John dropped the milk, or Brian is a swan.
valid_hypothesis: It is probably not the case that either John dropped the milk, or Brian is a swan.
invalid_hypothesis: It is certain that either John dropped the milk, or Brian is a swan.
hypothesis_assertion: Either John dropped the milk, or Brian is a swan.