context: Chances are about even that Mary went to the garden. It is probably the case that John took the apple. There is a better than even chance that Winona is a cat. We doubt that if John took the apple, or Mary went to the garden, then Daniel left the apple. It is likely that if either John took the apple, or Mary went to the garden, then Lily is yellow. It is probably not the case that if Winona is a cat, or Mary went to the garden, then Bernhard is gray.
hypothesis: It is improbable that john took the apple, and Daniel left the apple.
valid_hypothesis: It is improbable that john took the apple, and Daniel left the apple.
invalid_hypothesis: It is probably the case that john took the apple, and Daniel left the apple.
hypothesis_assertion: John took the apple, and Daniel left the apple.