context: It is probably the case that John moved to the office. It is highly unlikely that Brian is a rhino. It is improbable that Sandra left the milk. There is a very good chance that if Sandra left the milk, or John moved to the office, then Julius is green. It is almost certain that if John moved to the office, or Sandra left the milk, then Mary dropped the apple. There is a better than even chance that if John moved to the office, or Brian is a rhino, then Bernhard is a swan.
hypothesis: Chances are about even that bernhard is a swan, and Mary dropped the apple.
valid_hypothesis: Chances are about even that bernhard is a swan, and Mary dropped the apple.
invalid_hypothesis: It is almost certain that bernhard is a swan, and Mary dropped the apple.
hypothesis_assertion: Bernhard is a swan, and Mary dropped the apple.