context: We believe that Julius is yellow. It is probable that Greg is a frog. It is impossible that John took the apple. There is a very good chance that if John took the apple, or Greg is a frog, then Bill went to the cinema. It is highly unlikely that if John took the apple, and Julius is yellow, then Mary grabbed the milk. Chances are about even that if Greg is a frog, and Julius is yellow, then Brian is a lion.
hypothesis: It is probably not the case that either John took the apple, or Brian is a lion.
valid_hypothesis: It is probably not the case that either John took the apple, or Brian is a lion.
invalid_hypothesis: It is likely that either John took the apple, or Brian is a lion.
hypothesis_assertion: Either John took the apple, or Brian is a lion.