context: It is unlikely that John took the apple. It is probable that Mary went to the kitchen. It is probably the case that Julius is a frog. It is likely that if John took the apple, or Mary went to the kitchen, then Brian is a swan. We doubt that if either Mary went to the kitchen, or John took the apple, then Bernhard is white. It is probable that if Julius is a frog, or Mary went to the kitchen, then Greg is green.
hypothesis: There is a better than even chance that either John took the apple, or Greg is green.
valid_hypothesis: There is a better than even chance that either John took the apple, or Greg is green.
invalid_hypothesis: Chances are slight that either John took the apple, or Greg is green.
hypothesis_assertion: Either John took the apple, or Greg is green.