context: There is almost no chance that Mary went to the garden. Chances are about even that Julius is gray. We doubt that Brian is yellow. There is a very good chance that if Julius is gray, or Mary went to the garden, then John picked up the apple. It is likely that if Brian is yellow, or Mary went to the garden, then Bernhard is a frog. It is improbable that if Julius is gray, and Mary went to the garden, then Bill dropped the milk.
hypothesis: Chances are about even that either John picked up the apple, or Bernhard is a frog.
valid_hypothesis: Chances are about even that either John picked up the apple, or Bernhard is a frog.
invalid_hypothesis: It is certain that either John picked up the apple, or Bernhard is a frog.
hypothesis_assertion: Either John picked up the apple, or Bernhard is a frog.