context: We believe that Mary went to the bedroom. It is probable that John left the apple. Chances are about even that Lily is white. It is unlikely that if either Lily is white, or Mary went to the bedroom, then Julie is in the office. It is certain that if Lily is white, or John left the apple, then Bernhard is a frog. Chances are about even that if Mary went to the bedroom, and John left the apple, then Greg is yellow.
hypothesis: There is almost no chance that bernhard is a frog, and John left the apple.
valid_hypothesis: It is probably the case that bernhard is a frog, and John left the apple.
invalid_hypothesis: There is almost no chance that bernhard is a frog, and John left the apple.
hypothesis_assertion: Bernhard is a frog, and John left the apple.