context: It is highly likely that Brian is a frog. It is likely that Bernhard is gray. We believe that Julius is a swan. It is highly unlikely that if Julius is a swan, or Bernhard is gray, then Mary took the apple. It is highly likely that if Julius is a swan, or Bernhard is gray, then Lily is white. It is probable that if Julius is a swan, and Brian is a frog, then John went to the garden.
hypothesis: There is almost no chance that either John went to the garden, or Mary took the apple.
valid_hypothesis: Chances are about even that either John went to the garden, or Mary took the apple.
invalid_hypothesis: There is almost no chance that either John went to the garden, or Mary took the apple.
hypothesis_assertion: Either John went to the garden, or Mary took the apple.