context: We doubt that Greg is a frog. There is a better than even chance that John went to the bedroom. Chances are slight that Lily is a lion. It is unlikely that if John went to the bedroom, and Lily is a lion, then Daniel left the football. It is probably the case that if John went to the bedroom, and Greg is a frog, then Mary got the apple. There is a better than even chance that if Lily is a lion, or John went to the bedroom, then Bernhard is white.
hypothesis: Chances are about even that bernhard is white, or Mary got the apple.
valid_hypothesis: Chances are about even that bernhard is white, or Mary got the apple.
invalid_hypothesis: There is almost no chance that bernhard is white, or Mary got the apple.
hypothesis_assertion: Bernhard is white, or Mary got the apple.