context: It is probably the case that Brian is a frog. It is almost certain that Emily is a mouse. It is likely that Lily is yellow. It is highly likely that if either Lily is yellow, or Emily is a mouse, then Julius is a swan. Chances are about even that if either Brian is a frog, or Emily is a mouse, then Fred is in the park. There is little chance that if Lily is yellow, and Emily is a mouse, then Sandra got the football.
hypothesis: It is probably the case that either Fred is in the park, or Sandra got the football.
valid_hypothesis: It is unlikely that either Fred is in the park, or Sandra got the football.
invalid_hypothesis: It is probably the case that either Fred is in the park, or Sandra got the football.
hypothesis_assertion: Either Fred is in the park, or Sandra got the football.