context: It is probable that Mary dropped the apple. Chances are slight that Bill went to the garden. It is certain that Brian is green. It is probably the case that if Mary dropped the apple, or Bill went to the garden, then Greg is a frog. There is almost no chance that if Brian is green, and Mary dropped the apple, then Gertrude is a mouse. It is impossible that if Brian is green, and Mary dropped the apple, then Lily is white.
hypothesis: It is highly unlikely that mary dropped the apple, and Greg is a frog.
valid_hypothesis: Chances are about even that mary dropped the apple, and Greg is a frog.
invalid_hypothesis: It is highly unlikely that mary dropped the apple, and Greg is a frog.
hypothesis_assertion: Mary dropped the apple, and Greg is a frog.