context: There is almost no chance that Mary grabbed the apple. It is likely that Bernhard is a frog. There is a very good chance that Brian is a swan.
hypothesis: It is almost certain that either Bernhard is a frog, or Brian is a swan.
valid_hypothesis: Chances are about even that either Bernhard is a frog, or Brian is a swan.
invalid_hypothesis: It is almost certain that either Bernhard is a frog, or Brian is a swan.
hypothesis_assertion: Either Bernhard is a frog, or Brian is a swan.