context: Chances are about even that Lily is a swan. It is probably the case that Julius is gray. It is probably the case that John took the milk.
hypothesis: It is probably not the case that john took the milk, and Lily is a swan.
valid_hypothesis: It is probably not the case that john took the milk, and Lily is a swan.
invalid_hypothesis: It is likely that john took the milk, and Lily is a swan.
hypothesis_assertion: John took the milk, and Lily is a swan.