context: It is unlikely that Bernhard is a frog. We believe that John moved to the garden. It is probably the case that Sandra got the apple.
hypothesis: It is almost certain that either Sandra got the apple, or John moved to the garden.
valid_hypothesis: Chances are about even that either Sandra got the apple, or John moved to the garden.
invalid_hypothesis: It is almost certain that either Sandra got the apple, or John moved to the garden.
hypothesis_assertion: Either Sandra got the apple, or John moved to the garden.