context: Chances are about even that John dropped the apple. It is likely that Bernhard is gray. It is highly likely that Fred left the football.
hypothesis: It is probably not the case that either Fred left the football, or Bernhard is gray.
valid_hypothesis: It is probably not the case that either Fred left the football, or Bernhard is gray.
invalid_hypothesis: It is almost certain that either Fred left the football, or Bernhard is gray.
hypothesis_assertion: Either Fred left the football, or Bernhard is gray.