context: It is unlikely that John dropped the apple. Chances are about even that Greg is a swan. There is little chance that Julius is gray.
hypothesis: It is probable that john dropped the apple, or Julius is gray.
valid_hypothesis: It is probably not the case that john dropped the apple, or Julius is gray.
invalid_hypothesis: It is probable that john dropped the apple, or Julius is gray.
hypothesis_assertion: John dropped the apple, or Julius is gray.