context: There is a better than even chance that Jeff put down the apple. It is highly likely that Bernhard is a frog. It is likely that Lily is a swan.
hypothesis: It is certain that lily is a swan, and Jeff put down the apple.
valid_hypothesis: Chances are about even that lily is a swan, and Jeff put down the apple.
invalid_hypothesis: It is certain that lily is a swan, and Jeff put down the apple.
hypothesis_assertion: Lily is a swan, and Jeff put down the apple.