context: It is unlikely that Greg is a swan. Chances are about even that Fred moved to the cinema. Chances are slight that Mary grabbed the apple.
hypothesis: There is little chance that fred moved to the cinema, or Mary grabbed the apple.
valid_hypothesis: There is a better than even chance that fred moved to the cinema, or Mary grabbed the apple.
invalid_hypothesis: There is little chance that fred moved to the cinema, or Mary grabbed the apple.
hypothesis_assertion: Fred moved to the cinema, or Mary grabbed the apple.