context: It is likely that John dropped the apple. There is a very good chance that Julius is a swan. Chances are slight that Fred moved to the office.
hypothesis: There is almost no chance that john dropped the apple, and Julius is a swan.
valid_hypothesis: There is a better than even chance that john dropped the apple, and Julius is a swan.
invalid_hypothesis: There is almost no chance that john dropped the apple, and Julius is a swan.
hypothesis_assertion: John dropped the apple, and Julius is a swan.