context: It is probably the case that Greg is a frog. We doubt that Julius is a rhino. It is probably the case that Bill dropped the apple.
hypothesis: It is highly unlikely that either Bill dropped the apple, or Greg is a frog.
valid_hypothesis: Chances are about even that either Bill dropped the apple, or Greg is a frog.
invalid_hypothesis: It is highly unlikely that either Bill dropped the apple, or Greg is a frog.
hypothesis_assertion: Either Bill dropped the apple, or Greg is a frog.