context: There is almost no chance that Bill went to the hallway. It is probable that Bernhard is a frog. It is probably the case that Julius is green.
hypothesis: It is almost certain that either Bernhard is a frog, or Julius is green.
valid_hypothesis: Chances are about even that either Bernhard is a frog, or Julius is green.
invalid_hypothesis: It is almost certain that either Bernhard is a frog, or Julius is green.
hypothesis_assertion: Either Bernhard is a frog, or Julius is green.