context: It is unlikely that John put down the apple. It is probably the case that Emily is a mouse. Chances are slight that Lily is a frog.
hypothesis: It is probably not the case that either John put down the apple, or Lily is a frog.
valid_hypothesis: It is probably not the case that either John put down the apple, or Lily is a frog.
invalid_hypothesis: It is likely that either John put down the apple, or Lily is a frog.
hypothesis_assertion: Either John put down the apple, or Lily is a frog.