document: A meteorological fuzzy expert system incorporating subjective user input We present a fuzzy expert system , MEDEX , for forecasting gale-force winds in the Mediterranean basin . The most successful local wind forecasting in this region is achieved by an expert human forecaster with access to numerical weather prediction products . That forecaster 's knowledge is expressed as a set of ` rules-of-thumb ' . Fuzzy set methodologies have proved well suited for encoding the forecaster 's knowledge , and for accommodating the uncertainty inherent in the specification of rules , as well as in subjective and objective input . MEDEX uses fuzzy set theory in two ways : as a fuzzy rule base in the expert system , and for fuzzy pattern matching to select dominant wind circulation patterns as one input to the expert system . The system was developed , tuned , and verified over a two-year period , during which the weather conditions from 539 days were individually analyzed . Evaluations of MEDEX performance for both the onset and cessation of winter and summer winds are presented , and demonstrate that MEDEX has forecasting skill competitive with the US Navy 's regional forecasting center in Rota , Spain
doc_bio_tags: O B I I I O B I I O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I I I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O B I I O O O O O O B I I O O O O O O O B I I O O O B I I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O
extractive_keyphrases: meteorological fuzzy expert system subjective user input medex mediterranean basin numerical weather prediction products fuzzy set theory uncertainty fuzzy rule base fuzzy pattern matching wind circulation patterns
abstractive_keyphrases: gale-force wind forecasting rules-of-thumb subjective variables rule specification