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attacks) and anthropogenic (e.g. deforestation, urbanization, farming) |
disturbances ( Jin and Sader, 2005 ).The ability of any system to detect change depends on its capacity |
to account for variability at one scale (e.g. seasonal variations), while |
identifying change at another (e.g. multi-year trends). As such, change |
in ecosystems can be divided into three classes: (1) seasonal change , |
driven by annual temperature and rainfall interactions impacting plant |
phenology or proportional cover of land cover types with different |
plant phenology; (2) gradual change such as interannual climate |
variability (e.g. trends in mean annual rainfall) or gradual change in |
land management or land degradation; and (3) abrupt change , caused |
by disturbances such as deforestation, urbanization, floods, and fires. |
Although the value of remotely sensed long term data sets for |
change detection has been firmly established ( de Beurs and Henebry, |
2005 ), only a limited number of time series change detection methods |
have been developed. Two major challenges stand out. First, methods |
must allow for the detection of changes within complete long term |
data sets while accounting for seasonal variation. Estimating change |
from remotely sensed data is not straightforward, since time series |
contain a combination of seasonal, gradual and abrupt changes, in |
addition to noise that originates from remnant geometric errors, |
atmospheric scatter and cloud effects ( Roy et al., 2002 ). ThoroughRemote Sensing of Environment 114 (2010) 106 –115 |
⁎Corresponding author. Tel.: +61 395452265; fax: +61 395452448. |
E-mail address: [email protected] (J. Verbesselt). |
0034-4257/$ –see front matter. Crown Copyright © 2009 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. |
doi:10.1016/j.rse.2009.08.014 |
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect |
Remote Sensing of Environment |
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/rse |
reviews of existing change detection methods by Coppin et al. (2004) |
andLu et al. (2004) have shown, however, that most methods focus on |
short image time series (only 2 –5 images). The risk of confounding |
variability with change is high with infrequent images, since |
disturbances can occur in between image acquisitions ( de Beurs and |
Henebry, 2005 ). Several approaches have been proposed for analyzing |
image time series, such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA) ( Crist |
and Cicone, 1984 ), wavelet decomposition ( Anyamba and Eastman, |
1996 ), Fourier analysis ( Azzali and Menenti, 2000 ) and Change Vector |
Analysis (CVA) ( Lambin and Strahler, 1994 ). These time series analysis |
approaches discriminate noise from the signal by its temporal |
characteristics but involve some type of transformation designed to |
isolate dominant components of the variation across years of imagery |
through the multi-temporal spectral space. The challenge of these |
methods is the labeling of the change components, because each |
analysis depends entirely on the speci fic image series analyzed. |
Compared to PCA, Fourier analysis, and wavelet decomposition, CVA |
allows the interpretation of change processes, but can still only be |
performed between two periods of time (e.g. between years or |
growing seasons) ( Lambin and Strahler, 1994 ), which makes the |
analysis dependent on the selection of these periods. Furthermore, |
change in time series is often masked by seasonality driven by yearly |
temperature and rainfall variation. Existing change detection techni- |
ques minimize seasonal variation by focussing on speci fic periods |
within a year (e.g. growing season) ( Coppin et al., 2004 ), temporally |
summarizing time series data ( Bontemps et al., 2008; Fensholt et al., |
2009 ) or normalizing re flectance values per land cover type ( Healey |
et al., 2005 ) instead of explicitly accounting for seasonality. |
Second, change detection techniques need to be independent of |
speci fic thresholds or change trajectories. Change detection methods |
that require determination of thresholds often produce misleading |
results due to different spectral and phenological characteristics of |
land cover types ( Lu et al., 2004 ). The determination of thresholds |
adds signi ficant cost to efforts to expand change detection to large |
areas. Trajectory based change detection has been proposed to move |
towards a threshold independent change detection by characterizing |
change by its temporal signature ( Hayes and Cohen, 2007; Kennedy |
et al., 2007 ). This approach requires the de finition of the change |
trajectory speci fic for the type of change to be detected and spectral |
data to be analyzed (e.g. short-wave infrared or near-infrared basedindices). Furthermore, the method will only function if the observed |
spectral trajectory matches one of the hypothesized trajectories. |
Trajectory based change detection can be interpreted as a supervised |
change detection method while there is a need for an unsupervised, |
more generic, change detection approach independent of the data |
type and change trajectory. |
The purpose of this research is to develop a generic change detection |
approach for time series, involving the detection and characterization of |
Breaks For Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST). BFAST integrates the |
iterative decomposition of time series into trend, seasonal and noise |
components with methods for detecting changes, without the need to |
select a reference period, set a threshold, or de fine a change trajectory. |
The main objectives are: |
(1) The detection of multiple abrupt changes in the seasonal and |
trend components of the time series; and |
(2) The characterization of gradual and abrupt ecosystem change |
by deriving the time, magnitude, and direction of change |
within the trend component of the time series. |
We assessed BFAST for a large range of ecosystems by simulating |
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series with |
varying amounts of seasonal variation and noise, and by adding |
abrupt changes with different magnitudes. We applied the approach |
on MODIS 16-day image composites (hereafter called 16-day time |
series) to detect major changes in a forested area in south eastern |
Australia. The approach is not speci fic to a particular data type andcould be applied to detect and characterize changes within other |
remotely sensed image time series (e.g. Landsat) or be integrated |
within monitoring frameworks and used as an alarm system to |
provide information on when and where changes occur. |
2. Iterative change detection |
We propose a method that integrates the iterative decomposition |
of time series into trend, seasonal and noise components with |
methods for detecting and characterizing changes (i.e. breakpoints) |
within time series. Standard time series decomposition methods |